HomeMy WebLinkAbout20211220IRP Exhibit 1.pdfIntermountain Gas Company
IGRAC Committee Member List/Invitation
Integrated Resource Plan 2021 – 2026
Exhibit No. 1
Section A
1
Thompson, Raycee
From:IGC IRP Comments
Sent:Thursday, February 11, 2021 2:33 PM
Cc:Blattner, Lori
Subject:Welcome to the Intermountain Gas Resource Advisory Committee
Greetings,
Thank you for being a member of the Intermountain Gas Resource Advisory Committee (IGRAC). Intermountain Gas is
preparing for the 2021 IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) to be filed in the fall, which we do every two years.
Below is a little bit of background on the IRP and what all it entails.
IRP Background
The IRP is a required filing to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) that documents our planning process for
ensuring there is enough safe and reliable delivery capacity and gas supply as our system continues to experience
customer growth.
Our Advisory Committee members are an important source of feedback for us as we work through the process of
developing the final plan. To solicit this feedback, we traditionally hold three meetings across our service territory
(Boise, Twin Falls, and Idaho Falls). At these meetings, we present the assumptions and analysis that go into creating the
IRP. For the 2021 IRP, it is likely our meetings will be held virtually via Microsoft Teams. Below is a schedule for the
meetings and topics:
As an advisory member, you are encouraged to provide feedback before, after and during the meetings. We will allow
for a 10 day feedback window after meetings to ensure that all thoughts and ideas can be considered and incorporated
into our work before it is finalized.
Within the next week I will send out a Microsoft Teams invitation for the first advisory meeting. Please feel free to reach
out to me with any questions you may have.
Sincerely,
Raycee Thompson, CMA
Regulatory Analyst
208.377.6046
IRP.Comments@intgas.com
First Name Last Name Organization
John Chatburn Idaho Office of Energy Resources
Brad Dillon Northwest Pipeline‐ Williams
Teresa McKnight REDI of Eastern Idaho
Kit Kamo Snake River Economic Development Alliance
Kristen Nieskens Snake River Economic Development Alliance
Tina Wilson Western Alliance For Economic Development
Connie Stopher SEID (Southern Idaho Economic Development)
Steve Fultz Caldwell Economic Development
Steven Jenkins Caldwell Economic Development
Robyn Sellers City of Nampa, Economic Development
Matt Hunter Pocatello/Chubbuck Chamber of Commerce
Scott Reese REDI Board
Dana Briggs City of Idaho Falls
Rebecca Wildman Business Plus
Susie Davidson Idaho Commerce
Trung Pham Idaho Commerce
Victoria Cleary City of Meridian
MiaCate Kennedy Bannock Development Corporation
Katie Pegan OEMR (Office of Energy and Mineral Resources
Marissa Warren OEMR (Office of Energy and Mineral Resources
Terri Carlock Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Donn English Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Kevin Keyt Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Taylor Thomas Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Brad Iverson‐Long Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Mike Louis Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Rick Keller Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Region Members
Western 18
Central 2
Eastern 5
N/A 2
Total 27
Intermountain Gas Resource Advisory Committee Members
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Intermountain Gas Company
March 9, 2021 IGRAC Committee Meeting Slides
Integrated Resource Plan 2021 – 2026
Exhibit No. 1
Section B
February 26, 2021
Good Morning,
Intermountain Gas Company will be hosting its first in a series of virtual meetings to review aspects of
the Company’s draft 2021 Integrated Resource Plan. The first Advisory Committee Meeting will be held:
On: March 9th, 2021
Via: Microsoft Teams
From: 10 am – 12:30 pm
At this meeting, Intermountain Gas Company employees will present the process and preliminary
data regarding the following:
Design Heating Degree Days
Residential & Commercial Customer Growth
Industrial Customer Forecasts
As a reminder, you are encouraged to provide feedback before, during, and after the meeting. We will
allow for a 10 day feedback window after this meeting to ensure that all suggestions are considered
before work in the above areas is finalized.
Please RSVP by responding to this Teams invitation. Feel free to reach out to me with any questions you
may have.
Should your schedule not permit you to attend, the meeting materials will be provided to you after the
meeting for your review and feedback.
Sincerely,
Raycee Thompson, CMA
Regulatory Analyst
208.377.6046
Raycee.Thompson@intgas.com
1
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
MARCH 9, 2021 INTERMOUNTAIN GAS RESOURCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE (IGRAC)
WELCOME
Introductions
Name
Organization you are representing
Favorite morning beverage
BENEFITS OF AN IRP
Blueprint to meet the Company’s firm customer demands over a five-year forecast period based on various assumptions
Provides frequent updates to the projected growth on the Company’s system
Considers all available resources to meet the needs of the Company’s customers on a consistent and comparable basis
Solicits input from Stakeholders during the modeling process
Helps to ensure Intermountain Gas Company will continue to provide reliable
energy service while minimizing costs
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
Integrated Resource Plan Process
Demand Supply & Delivery Resources
Economic Overview
Residential & Commercial
Customer Growth
Load Demand Curves
Industrial Demand
Design
WeatherResidential & Commercial Usage Per Customer
Optimization Modeling
Transportation Capacity & Storage Distribution System Overview
Demand Supply & Deliverability
Energy Efficiency:
Residential & Commercial
Natural Gas Supplies
Non-Traditional Resources
System Enhancements
Demand Supply
Economic Overview
Residential & Commercial
Customer Growth
Design Weather
Industrial Demand
AGENDA
Welcome & Introductions –Lori Blattner
Safety Moment & Feedback Process –Raycee Thompson
IRP Recommendations – Jacob Darrington
System Overview –Brian Robertson
Guest Speaker–John Church, Economist
Residential & Commercial Customer Growth -Cheryl Imlach
Design Heating Degree Days –Landon Barber
Industrial Customer Forecasts –Dave Swenson
Questions/Discussion
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SAFETY MOMENT FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
IRP.Comments@intgas.com
Please provide comments and feedback within 10 days
2019 IRP ACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND IRP RECOMMENDATIONS
Final Order No. 34742 – Commission Acknowledged Intermountain’s 2019 IRP Filing
Commission Recommendations for Intermountain’s IRP Process:
Include Analysis of All Options Considered to Resolve Identified Deficits
Validate the Peak Consumption Estimates from CMM Using Actual Peak Data from AMI
Meters
Seek, Inform, and Share Scenario Analyses, and Allow Diverse Stakeholders to Participate in IGRAC
SYSTEM OVERVIEW
BRIAN ROBERTSON
SUPERVISOR, RESOURCE PLANNING
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
Intermountain Gas Company is a natural gas local
distribution company, founded in 1950 and served its
first customer in 1956
Provides service to 76 communities across southern
Idaho
387,000+ customers
Delivered over 750 million therms in 2020
THROUGHPUT BY CUSTOMER CLASS
Residential34%
Commercial17%
Large Volume49%
Residential Commercial Large Volume
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INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AREAS OF INTEREST (AOI)
Distribution System Segments:
Canyon County
Central Ada County Lateral
North of State Street Lateral
Sun Valley Lateral
Idaho Falls Lateral
All Other Customers
REGIONAL PIPELINES
ECONOMIC FORECAST
JOHN CHURCHIDAHO ECONOMICS
FEBRUARY 2021
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
for the State of Idaho and the Counties in Idaho
Provides annual average statewide and county projections of employment, population, and households
Uses national employment trend as a primary driver for those sectors of the Idaho economy with a significant national economic exposure. However, the forecast is also interactive with the local serving sectors of the Idaho economy.
Projections of future population in the State and the Counties utilize a cohort component population forecasting model which predicts annual births, deaths, as well as population in/out migration.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
for the State of Idaho and the Counties in Idaho
Future household growth, which is the key driver for future residential customer growth is modeled as a function of total population (less those individuals in group quarters), and general economic conditions in the state.
In brief: good or improving economic conditions will speed up the rate of household growth, however worsening or declining economic conditions will slow the rate of household formation and, in turn, slow the rate of household growth.
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INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
-The Great Recession of 2008 brought about a significant decline in Idaho's nonagricultural employment. From year-end 2007 through 2010
Idaho nonagricultural employment decreased by 7.9%, a loss of 51,500 jobs. The effects of 2008 – 2010 recession were relatively long lasting. Total nonagricultural employment in the state attained an annual average
of 654,700 in 2007. It took 7 years, until the year 2014, for nonagricultural employment in the state reach prerecession levels.
- Since 2014 Idaho’s economy has regained its economic footing. Total nonagricultural employment in the state surged upward gaining nearly
105,000 jobs in five years – an annual average pace of 3.0% per year. During those five years Idaho was consistently ranked among the 5 fastest growing states in the nation.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
•The COVID-19 Pandemic & Idaho’s Economic & Population Growth:
- In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic brought Idaho’s economic growth to a
halt. From February 2020 to April 2020 nonagricultural in Idaho declined by 9.8% - a decrease of 74,300 jobs in a period of two months. This was a much sharper and steeper economic decline than that experienced in the
2008 Great Recession.
- Initial expectations were that an economic recovery could be a long and tedious process. That still may be the case for many regions and areas of
the country. However, the latest economic statistics seem to indicate that that may not be the case in Idaho. The growth in Idaho’s population was a
driving force in Idaho’s economic growth prior to the pandemic and
continues today. Population growth in the state has brought new jobs to the state and spurred on construction and trade employment in the state.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
•The COVID-19 Pandemic & Idaho’s Economic & Population Growth:
- Some statistics:
- While Idaho’s non-ag employment declined by nearly 74,000 in two months, construction employment in the state continued to grow – up 5.2%
(about 1,800 jobs) at year-end 2020 when compared to year-earlier levels,
- Total population in Idaho has increased at a robust pace since 2010. Through 2019 the US Census Bureau estimates that Idaho’s population
increased by 219,500 (14.0% - a annual average increase of 2.0% per year over the 2010 to 2019 period). These increases are overwhelmingly
due to a robust in-migration to Idaho. A 2.0% annual average rate of population growth, minus a natural population growth rate of 0.42% per year, leaves an annual average population increase of 1.58% per year
(about 28,000 persons per year) due to in-migration.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
•The COVID-19 Pandemic & Idaho’s Economic & Population Growth:
- The COVID – 19 pandemic has not yet slowed Idaho’s population growth. The latest US Census Bureau estimate of Idaho’s 2020 population indicates that population in the state increasing by a 2.12% rate (to a total
population of 1.826 million) and was ranked as the fastest growing state in the nation during 2020.
- What is origin of Idaho’s population in-migration? Statistics indicate that
California is the major source of Idaho’s current population growth. The latest US Census Bureau estimates of California’s 2020 population point to overall population decrease of nearly 70,000 last year. Over the last 5
years the Census Bureau has estimated that nearly 500,000 persons per year have migrated into California while nearly 700,000 California
residents have left the state each year. The pandemic has accelerated
that pace of out-migration
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
Idaho Economics Winter 2020 Economic Forecast
- The Base Case Economic Forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery
from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and thereafter a return to a more normal amount of economic fluctuation and normal business cycles.
The Base Case Economic Forecast is the “best estimate” of future economic activity in the State and it’s forty four counties.
- The High Growth Scenario assumes a more rapidly growing economy –
a pace that is similar to the rates of growth that Idaho experienced in the 1990s and in the post Great Recession period of 2012 – 2019
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
And Then There is Idaho’s Population Growth
The Base Case Economic Forecast assumes a normal amount of economic fluctuation and normal business cycles it is the “best estimate” of future
economic activity in the State and it’s forty four counties.
The High Growth Scenario assumes a more rapidly growing economy --
similar to the growth that Idaho experienced in the 1990s.
The Low Growth Scenario assumes a period of slower economic growth for
the State of Idaho with fewer employment opportunities in the future. In turn, slower economic growth will slow the rate of population growth in the state by decreasing population in-migration (or causing a population out-migration) and
slowing the rate of future household growth in the state.
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INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
The Economic Forecast
In the 2020 - 2045 Forecast Period Idaho’s Economy will experience:
An annual average increase in Nonagricultural employment of 2.5% per year, adding nearly 709,500 jobs to the State’s payrolls.
Population growth averaging 2.2% per year over the 2015 - 2045 forecast
period with, by the year 2045, the State’s population nearing 3,024,600 -- a gain of close to 1,283,000 from 2020 levels. Ada and Canyon counties are projected to attain a total population of 1,291,000 in the year 2045.
Plus, the addition of nearly 388,000 new households in Idaho over the 2020 to 2045 period -- an annual average increase of 2.2% per year over twenty-five year forecast period.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANThe Economic Forecast
Nonagricultural employment in Idaho is expected to increase by nearly
709,000 over the 2020 to 2045 forecast period. But some industries will fare better than others:
Agriculture is projected to experience a loss of nearly 12,000 jobs statewide by
the year 2045.
The Mining industry is expected to gain a modest 600 additional jobs statewide by the year 2045.
Construction, Mining, and Natural Resources posts annual average employment gains of 1.9% per year, posting a gain of nearly 86,000 in the State by the year 2045.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
The Economic Forecast
Manufacturing employment in Idaho is predicted to increase at an annual average rate of 1.1%per year over the 2020 - 2045 period for an absolute
gain of nearly 22,780 jobs from the 2020 employment levels.
The Transportation, Wholesale and Retail Trade, and the Utilities industries are expected to post annual average employment gains of 1.1% per year over the 2020 to 2045 period producing an absolute gain of close to 76,490
new jobs in the State.
Employment in the Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Industries is expected to decrease by 8,100 over the 2020 - 2045 period -- an annual average decrease of 0.6% per year.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
The Economic Forecast
The Service Industries in Idaho are expected to be the fastest growing in terms of employment growth over the 2020 to 2045 period –
Employment in the Professional and Business Services category is
forecasted to increase by 112,630 over the 2020 - 2045 period -- an annual average increase of 3.6% per year.
Education and Health Services employment in the State is forecasted to increase by 168,830 over the 2020 - 2045 period -- an annual average
increase of 3.8% per year.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
The Economic Forecast
Idaho employment in the Leisure and Hospitality Industries is forecasted to increase by nearly 64,920 over the 2020 - 2045 period -- an annual average increase of 2.4% per year. Lastly, employment in the category of Other
Services is projected to increase by 21,500 over the 2020 - 2045 period --an annual average increase of 1.6% per year.
In total, Idaho Service Industry Employment is projected to increase by 398,370 over the 2020 to 2045 period – 56.1% of the overall increase in
Non-Ag employment in the State over the forecast period.
Government employment is predicted to increase at an annual average rate of 2.7% per year over the 2020 - 2045 period with a net gain of nearly 110,940 jobs statewide.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANYINTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
The Economic Forecast
QUESTIONS ?
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10 MINUTE BREAK
RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL
CUSTOMER GROWTH
CHERYL IMLACH
MANAGER, ENERGY SERVICES
FORECASTING COMPONENTS
Economic Forecast – State of Idaho
Household Growth by County
3 scenarios- High, Low and Base
Historical Market Share
New Homes
Conversion customers
New Commercial customers
Community Planning Association (COMPASS) Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
‘Boots-on-the-Ground’ Observations/Feedback
AOI
GROWTH
RATE
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ADDITIONAL HOUSEHOLDS
-ECONOMIC FORECAST
13,868 14,824 14,975
9,615 10,265 10,131
4,766 5,076 5,088
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
NEW
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ANNUAL ADDITIONAL HOUSEHOLDS FORECAST
Intermountain Service Area
High Growth Base Case Low Growth
MARKET SHARE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION
•Building Permits issued by County & Jurisdiction•14 Counties•34 Communities
•2016-2020
•Permits v. Installed (by address)
District Permits Installed Rate
Boise 21,343 20,944 98%
Idaho Falls 5,315 3,511 66%
Nampa 9,617 8,571 89%
Pocatello 1,741 1,163 67%
Twin Falls 3,468 2,514 73%
EXISTING RESIDENTIAL CONVERSIONS
Total annual conversion customers Total annual residential sales
Total annual new commercial customers Total annual residential sales
SMALL COMMERCIAL ACQUISTION RATE
=
=
Conversion Rate
Region 3 year 10 year 15 year
West 4.89% 7.49% 7.12%
Central 11.80% 19.36% 18.23%
East 14.64% 20.09% 17.47%
Company 7.17% 10.98% 10.44%
Commercial Rate
Region 3 year 10 year 15 year
West 3.68% 4.82% 6.28%
Central 7.45% 9.54% 10.11%
East 8.94% 10.13% 11.23%
Company 4.97% 6.27% 7.71%
Sample Calculation
Market Share 73% 869
Conversion 11.8% 103
Commercial 7.45% 65
Initial Forecast 1,037
Twin Falls District
Total Households 2022
County 2021 2022 Growth
Blaine 10,126 10,303 177
Cassia 9,116 9,173 57
Gooding 6,293 6,327 34
Jerome 7,553 7,692 140
Lincoln 1,048 1,109 61
Minidoka 10,108 10,111 3
Twin Falls 24,420 25,139 720
70,685 71,876 1,191
=972
BASE CASE- GROWTH FORECAST
TOTAL IGC SALES FORECAST
ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL GROWTH ‐ by District
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Nampa 4,077 4,103 3,921 3,177 3,306
Boise 4,626 4,727 4,791 5,183 5,105
Twin Falls 972 859 944 1,039 953
Pocatello 463 383 886 728 864
Idaho Falls 1,136 1,174 1,178 1,162 1,195
RS Total 11,274 11,246 11,720 11,288 11,423
ANNUAL COMMERCIAL GROWTH ‐ by District
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Nampa 55 56 57 34 42
Boise 148 166 168 182 179
Twin Falls 65 64 63 69 63
Pocatello 67 69 69 57 67
Idaho Falls 89 92 92 91 93 GS Total 424 446 449 433 446
TOTAL GROWTH FORECAST ‐ by District
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Nampa 4,132 4,159 3,978 3,211 3,348
Boise 4,775 4,892 4,960 5,364 5,284
Twin Falls 1,037 923 1,007 1,108 1,016
Pocatello 530 452 955 785 932
Idaho Falls 1,225 1,265 1,270 1,253 1,289
Total 11,698 11,692 12,169 11,721 11,869
2021 IRP GROWTH FORECAST
11,698 11,692 12,169 11,721
11,869
5,525 6,600 6,800 6,770 6,346
13,369 14,106 14,337 14,112 14,494
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IRP GROWTH FORECAST
Base Low High
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FORECASTING GROWTH-AREAS OF INTEREST (AOI)Re-allocation of County Growth
AOITwin Falls District
Total Households 2022
County 2021 2022 Growth
Blaine 10,126 10,303 177
Cassia 9,116 9,173 57
Gooding 6,293 6,327 34
Jerome 7,553 7,692 140
Lincoln 1,048 1,109 61
Minidoka 10,108 10,111 3
Twin Falls 24,420 25,139 720
70,685 71,876 1,191
73% 869
11.8% 103 972
7.45% 65
1,037
Conversion
Commerical
Market Share
Sun Valley Lateral
Total Households 2022
County 2021 2022 Growth
Blaine 10,126 10,303 ‐177
Lincoln 1,048 1,109 ‐61
238
Market Share 73% 173
Conversion 12% 20 194
Commerical 7% 13
207
GROWTH FORECAST BY DISTRICT AND AOI
TOTAL GROWTH FORECAST ‐ by District
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Nampa 4,152 4,194 4,008 3,551 3,388
Boise 4,755 4,857 3,930 3,824 3,744
Twin Falls 1,037 923 1,007 1,108 1,016
Pocatello 530 452 955 785 932
Idaho Falls 1,225 1,265 1,270 1,253 1,289
Total 11,698 11,692 11,169 10,521 10,369
TOTAL GROWTH FORECAST ‐ by AOI
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Canyon Cnty 2,246 2,280 2,234 2,095 1,890
Sun Valley 207 211 215 161 202
IF Lateral 1,388 1,434 1,435 1,411 1,453
N of State St 1,914 1,979 2,047 2,116 2,188
Central Ada Mi 1,036 1,028 1,046 1,065 1,084
All Other 4,908 4,760 4,192 3,674 3,552
Total 11,698 11,692 11,169 10,521 10,369
N. OF STATE & CENTRAL ADA AREAS OF INTEREST
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
Current IGC Customer Count per AOI
TAZ Growth Factor per AOI
GIS Shape File of AOI’s
Apply Annual TAZ Growth to IGC Customer Count
512,308
521,924
532,115 526,193
538,618
551,216
490,000
500,000
510,000
520,000
530,000
540,000
550,000
560,000
2021 2022 2023
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ANNUAL HOUSEHOLDS FORECAST
Base Case: 2019 IRP vs. 2021 IRP
2021 IRP 2019 IRP
19,101 12,733
12,490 12,642
10,526
11,698 11,692
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
2021 2022 2023
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ANNUAL ADDITIONALCUSTOMERS
Base Case: 2019 IRP v 2021 IRP
2019 IRP 2021 IRP
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5,905 6,380
7,150
8,187
8,500
9,680 9,896
5,523
6,137
7,060
7,697
9,371 10,045 9,908
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Residential Growth
Plan vs. Actual
PLAN ACTUAL
365
428
396
540 500 540
610
428
396
423 474 469
565
501
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Commercial Growth
Plan vs. Actual
Plan Actual
6,270 6,808
7,546 8,727 9,000
10,220 10,506
5,095 5,741 6,637
7,223
8,902 9,480 9,407
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Core Market Growth
Plan v Actual
PLAN Actual ‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Canyon Cnty Sun Valley IF Lateral N of State St Central Ada Mix All Other
Base Case Forecast Growth by AOI
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?HEATING DEGREE DAYS & DESIGN WEATHER
LANDON BARBER
REGULATORY ANALYST
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WEATHER
Weather is a Key Residential & Commercial Demand Driver
Heating Degree Days are Used to Capture Weather Effects
Two Primary Weather Scenarios are Used in the IRP:
Normal HDD
Design HDD
HEATING DEGREE DAY(HDD)
What is a Heating Degree Day?
Industry-Wide Standard Measuring Degrees Below a Set Base Temperature
Base of 65 Degrees is Most Common
March 2nd, 2021 - Boise Example:
Daily High: 56 Degrees °F
Daily Low: 30 Degrees °F
Mean: 43 Degrees °F
65 Degrees – 43 Degrees = 22 HDD
NORMAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS
Benchmark for the IRP
Used for Routine Planning and Represent the Typical or “Normal”
Weather Expected on a Given Day
30-Year Rolling Average of Daily Mean Temperatures
Normal for the IRP is the 30-Years Ended December 2020
NORMAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS
DESIGN DEGREE DAYS
Design Degree Days Model the Coldest Temperatures that Could
Feasibly Occur on Intermountain's System
Created by Modeling Design Peak Day, then Modeling the
Surrounding Week, Month, and Year
DESIGN PEAK DAY
Design Peak Day is the Absolute Coldest Day Planned for in the Design Year
Engaged Idaho State Climatologist, Dr. Russell Qualls, to Conduct a Peak Day
Study
Study Produced a Range of Peak Days for Various Probability Assumptions
50-Year Peak-Day Event was Selected (78 HDD)
Peak Day is Modeled to Occur on Jan 15th of the Design Year
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PEAK 5-DAY DESIGN
The Days Surrounding the Peak Day are Modeled After the Coldest
Recorded Consecutive 5-Days in a 50 Year Period.
Peak Day is Assumed to be the Second Day in the 5-Day Period.
PEAK 5-DAY
DESIGN
PEAK MONTH
DESIGN
The Days Surrounding the Peak 5-Day Period are Modeled After the Coldest Calendar
Month in the last 50 Years
The Current Peak Month is
December 1985
This Month Forms the Basis for January Design Weather
DESIGNING THE REST OF THE YEAR
The Rest of the Year is Modeled After the Coldest Heating Year in a 50 Year Record
Oct 1984 – Sep 1985 Continues to be the Coldest
This Period Also Included the Coldest CriticalThree Month Heating Period (Dec-Feb)
DEGREE DAY GRAPH AOI DEGREE DAYS
Intermountain’s service area is climatologically diverse
Idaho Falls or Sun Valley vs. Boise
Intermountain has developed unique Degree Days for each AOI
Methods used to calculate AOI Degree Days mirror the Total Company
approach
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AOI DEGREE DAYS
Weather Stations West to East:•KBOI
•KEUL
•KTWF•KSUN
•KPIH•KIDA•KRXE
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
2021 IRP
LARGE VOLUME CUSTOMER FORECAST
DAVID SWENSON
MANAGER, INDUSTRIAL SERVICES
WHAT IS A LARGE VOLUME CUSTOMER?
139 largest customers; approximately 49% of 2020 sales
Mix of “Industrial” and “Commercial” types
As a group exhibit fairly high load factor
Provide thousands of Idaho jobs; huge impact on economy
SENDOUT STATISTICS SENDOUT STATISTICS
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REQUIREMENTS OF A LARGE VOLUME CUSTOMER
Minimum 200,000 Therms per contract-year requirement
Must elect 1 of 3 tariffs:
LV-1 bundled sales
T-3 interruptible transporation or T-4 firm transportation
Minimum one-year contract; the contract sets the term and Maximum Daily Firm Quantity (MDFQ) for firm peak day use
Contracts are site specific; can combine meters on contiguous property
CLASSIFICATION OF CURRENT 139 LV CUSTOMERS
Percent of Total
By Rate Class:# of # of Therms
LV-1 Sales –29 21% 3%
T-3 Interruptible Transport – 8 6% 17%
T-4 Firm Transport – 102 73% 80%
Total –139 100% 100%
SEGMENTATION OF 139 LARGE VOLUME CUSTOMERS
By Market “Segment”# %Therms%
Potato Processors –19 14%30%
Other Food Processors – 18 13%29%
Meat & Dairy –22 16%13%
Ag & Feed –6 4%1%
Chemical/Fertilizer –3 2%9%
Manufacturing –30 22%6%
Institutional –31 22%7%
Other –10 7%5%
Total –139 100% 100%
LOCATION OF 139 LARGE VOLUME CUSTOMERS (BC)
By AOI:# % Therms%
IFL –25 18% 20%
SVL –4 3%1%
Central Ada –2 1%1%
State Street –3 2%1%
Canyon County –21 15%15%
All Other –84 61%62%
Total –139 100%100%
OVERVIEW OF FORECASTTECHNIQUE
Most not as weather sensitive as the Core Market
Small population (not as many customers)
Not as homogenous as Core (size, weather sensitivity)
Don’t use statistics/regression techniques
Use an “adjusted” historical usage approach
Forecast both Therm use and CD (MDFQ/MDQ)
SURVEY SAYS...
Sent out 139 surveys in November 2020
Provided last two years of actual annual usage, Peak Day usage and date
where available
Also requested other information from plant contacts or other
external information
Growth plans, conservation, energy efficiency, other data relating to changes
in usage, interest in RNG, comments/suggestions
45 were returned
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SURVEY SAYS...APPLICATION OF FORECAST TECHNIQUE
Adjusted historical data with survey information and other data
(e.g. EDO's) to develop three forecasts
Assumed growth by specific customers except for Institutional
Segment as they are more weather sensitive
Adjusted weather sensitive customer group by ±10% for High
Growth and Low Growth scenarios
ADJUSTMENTS TO HISTORICAL – 3 SCENARIOS
Base Case, High Growth, Low Growth
Used recent trends to validate results
SENDOUT STATISTICS
2020 SENDOUT VS PLAN (MMBtu's)
Core Large Volume Total Sendout
Mnth to Date Plan 6,842,614 Month to Date Plan 3,610,446 Month to Date Plan 10,453,060
Month to Date Actual 7,008,362 Month to Date Actual 3,417,067 Month to Date Actual 10,425,429
MTD Over(Under) Plan 165,748 MTD Over(Under) Plan (193,379)MTD Over(Under) Plan (27,631
MTD Over(Under) Plan %2.42%MTD Over(Under) Plan %(5.36)%MTD Over(Under) Plan %(0.26)%
Quarter to Date Plan 14,788,273 Quarter to Date Plan 10,547,738 Quarter to Date Plan 25,336,011
Quarter to Date Actual 14,977,513 Quarter to Date Actual 9,885,550 Quarter to Date Actual 24,883,063
QTD Over(Under) Plan 209,240 QTD Over(Under) Plan (662,188)QTD Over(Under) Plan (452,948)
QTD Over(Under) Plan %1.41%QTD Over(Under) Plan %(6.28)%QTD Over(Under) Plan %(15.83)%
Year to Date Plan 39,813,069 Year to Date Plan 36,419,611 Year to Date Plan 76,232,680
Year to Date Actual 40,075,486 Year to Date Actual 34,212,097 Year to Date Actual 74,287,583
YTD Over(Under) Plan 262,417 YTD Over(Under) Plan (2,207,214)YTD Over(Under) Plan (1,9485,097)
YTD Over(Under) Plan %0.66%YTD Over(Under) Plan %(6.06)%YTD Over(Under) Plan %(2.55)%
BASE CASE SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
Starts with historical actuals
Adjust for survey information and trends
Natural gas prices competitive with other energy sources
Economy comes out of the pandemic with strong growth
Includes 7 new customers
Mix of segments; 4 T-4, 2 LV-1 and 1 T-3; most are "All Other" in Magic Valley
Annualized growth rate of 1.1%
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HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
Starts with Base Case Forecast
Natural gas prices remain comparatively low
Economy comes out of the pandemic with rebound growth
Assumes 10 new customers totaling 8.6 million Therms by 2026
Additions mostlyT-4 (6); 4 Meat & Dairy and 4 Other Food Processing; most growth in All Other
Annualized growth rate of 1.8%
SENDOUT STATISTICS
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
Starts with Base Case Forecast
Assume gas prices are less competitive; weather 10% warmer
Economy slows; pandemic continues to affect gas usage
Removed any customer having difficulty staying above the
200,000 Therm annual minimum
Two new T-4 customers; 1 Meat & Dairy and 1 Other Food
Annualized growth rate of -0.4%
SENDOUT STATISTICS
SENDOUT STATISTICS SENDOUT STATISTICS
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OPTIMIZATION MODELING -
MDFQ VS THERM FORECAST
Use MDFQ not therm forecast in optimization model
Contract includes Maximum Daily Firm Quantity (MDFQ)
Intermountain provides MDFQ 365 day/year; gas supply
MDFQ trends therm projections
Only firm customers in design peak; no interruptible
Includes new customer additions
Total LV Base Case MDFQ compound growth rate of 0.3%
SENDOUT STATISTICS
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
ADDITIONAL MEETINGS
May 17, 2021via Microsoft Teams
Usage Per Customer
Energy Efficiency
Supply Resources
July 26, 2021 via Microsoft Teams
Non-Traditional Resources
Load Duration Curves
Enhancements and Optimization
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
IRP.Comments@intgas.com
Please provide comments and feedback within 10 days
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Intermountain Gas Company
May 20, 2021 IGRAC Committee Meeting Slides
Integrated Resource Plan 2021 – 2026
Exhibit No. 1
Section C
May 18, 2021
Good Afternoon,
This is a friendly reminder that Intermountain Gas Company will be hosting its second Resource Advisory
Committee Meeting this Thursday May 20th from 1‐4 pm via Microsoft Teams (please see the links at the
bottom of the email below for joining the meeting).
Here is the agenda for Thursday’s meeting:
Welcome & Introductions – Lori Blattner (Director, Regulatory Affairs)
Safety Moment – Mark Sellers‐Vaughn (Manager, Supply Resource Planning)
Usage per Customer – Linda Offerdahl (Engineer II)
Avoided Cost Methodology – Landon Barber (Regulatory Analyst)
Energy Efficiency – Kathy Wold (Manager, Energy Efficiency)
Guest Speaker – Renewable Natural Gas
Dan Kirschner, Executive Director Northwest Gas Association
Supply Resources & Price Forecast – Brian Robertson (Supervisor, Resource Planning)
Questions/Discussion
I also wanted to provide you the topics we will be discussing in the July 26th meeting:
Non‐Traditional Resources
Load Demand Curves
Optimization and Enhancements
Distribution System Upgrades
We look forward to interacting with you on Thursday. Please let me know if you have any questions.
Thank you for participating,
Jacob Darrington, CPA
Manager, Regulatory Affairs
Intermountain Gas Company
Office: (208) 377-6041
Jacob.Darrington@intgas.com
1
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
MAY 20, 2021 INTERMOUNTAIN GAS RESOURCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE (IGRAC)
WELCOME
Introductions
Feedback Process
Agenda
AGENDA
Welcome & Introductions – Lori Blattner (Director, Regulatory Affairs)
Safety Moment – Mark Sellers-Vaughn (Manager, Supply Resource Planning)
Usage per Customer –Linda Offerdahl (Engineer II)
Avoided Cost Methodology –Landon Barber (Regulatory Analyst)
Energy Efficiency – Kathy Wold (Manager, Energy Efficiency)
Guest Speaker – Renewable Natural GasDan Kirschner, Executive Director Northwest Gas Association
Supply Resources and Transportation & Storage Resources–Brian Robertson (Supervisor, Resource Planning)
Questions/Discussion
Demand Supply & Delivery Resources
Economic Overview
Residential & Commercial Customer Growth
Load Demand Curves
Industrial Demand
Design WeatherResidential & Commercial Usage Per Customer
Optimization Modeling
Transportation Capacity & Storage Distribution System Overview
Demand Supply & Deliverability
Energy Efficiency:
Residential & Commercial
Natural Gas Supplies
Non-Traditional Resources
System Enhancements
Demand Supply
SAFETY MOMENT
Telecommuting tips!
Maintain proper posture
Your chair allows you to sit with the proper posture. This helps reduce back pain or other physical discomforts. Maintaining proper posture throughout the day will help alleviate any discomfort.
Lighting is important
Make certain that you have sufficient lighting for reading and working. Don’t strain your eyes!
Stand up periodically
Use phone calls as an opportunity to stand up and walk around.
Trade your commute time for a morning or evening walk.
AREAS OF INTEREST (AOI)
Distribution System Segments:
Canyon County
Central Ada County Lateral
“North of State Street” Lateral
Sun Valley Lateral
Idaho Falls Lateral
All Other Customers
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2
DESIGN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL USAGE
PER CUSTOMER
LINDA OFFERDAHL
ENGINEER
CUSTOMER USAGE TRENDS
Nationally, Customers Use Less Natural Gas Now Compared to Decades Ago
Energy Efficient Building Codes
More Efficient Furnaces and Water Heaters
Increased Use of Programmable Thermostats
CUSTOMER USAGE TRENDS – IMPACT ON INTERMOUNTAIN’S
CUSTOMER BASE
Conservation Influences Began Impacting Usage
in the Early 1990’s
70% of Intermountain’s Customers are New Since 1990
USAGE PER CUSTOMER MODELING METHODOLOGY
Customer Management Module (CMM)
Product from DNV GL
Now Fully Implemented into IRP Process
Part of the Synergi Gas Product Line
CMM
METHODOLOGY
CMM Uses Historical Billing and Weather Data to Create a Unique Usage Analysis for Each Customer
The Customer Usages are Assigned to the Appropriate Pipeline within Intermountain’s Synergi Distribution System Model
Area Specific Heating Degree Days are Applied to the Usage Analysis
USAGE PER CUSTOMER BY AOI
Apply HDD for Each AOI Based on Weather Study
Allows for a Unique Customer Usage Calculation Based on Geographic Location
Canyon County: Identified Customers by Town, Created Single Usage
Central Ada & State Street: Grouped AOI’s Together as a Similar Customer Base
Sun Valley Lateral: Variable Usage by Town
Idaho Falls Lateral: Variable Usage by Town
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3
USAGE PER
CUSTOMER
VALIDATION
Using a Sample IGC Customer Data Set on a Peak HDD
Comparing CMM Results to Actual
Usage from AMI Data
Analysis of Results to Validate Usage Per Customer Methodology
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
AVOIDED COST METHODOLOGY
LANDON BARBER
REGULATORY ANALYST
A BRIEF HISTORY
INT-G-19-04, Order No. 34536 directed the Company to review its avoided cost calculations.
In early 2020, Intermountain invited interested members of the Energy Efficiency Stakeholder Committee (EESC) to join an Avoided Cost Subcommittee.
Met three times between February and June 2020
The Subcommittee came to an understanding on the general Avoided Cost methodology
The Subcommittee will reconvene to revisit distribution component after 2021 IRP data is available
AVOIDED COST OVERVIEW
The Avoided Cost is used to put a dollar value to energy savings.
This allows utilities to spot opportunities where energy efficiency is more cost effective than a supply-side option.
"A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned."
Commodity
Costs
Transportation
Costs
Distribution
Costs
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4
FORMULA
𝐴𝐶 𝐶𝐶 𝑇𝐶 𝑉𝐷𝐶
𝐴𝐶= Nominal Avoided Cost Per Therm
𝐶𝐶 = Commodity Cost
𝑇𝐶= Transportation Cost
𝑉𝐷𝐶= Variable Distribution Cost
COMMODITY COST CALCULATION
The price of a molecule of gas depends on the basin, the time of year, and even the day of the week.
Calculation starts with internal 30-year price forecasts for three primary basins.
Basins prices are weighted based on company Day Gas purchase data.
Normal Heating Degree Days (HDD65) are used to shape monthly prices.
TRANSPORTATION COST CALCULATION
Includes the cost of reserving additional capacity on the Northwest Pipeline.
Based on costs & volumes listed in latest tariffs for RS and GS-1 customers.
Also contains variable costs associated with transporting gas to city gate.
DISTRIBUTION COST CALCULATION
Energy efficiency can lead to delaying or even avoiding costly pipeline capacity expansions.
Large expansions occur irregularly, making it difficult to quantify this type of saving.
The Company will reconvene with the Avoided Cost Subcommittee once distribution system data from this IRP is available.
Currently, the calculation contains a placeholder value of $0.00 for this cost component.
2021 IRP UPDATES
Updated Basin price forecast.
Updated HDD Shaping to use 2020 Normal weather.
Added new year of Day Gas purchase data.
Updated transportation cost with latest PGA tariff.
YEAR
UPDATED
COST
PREVIOUS
COS
2020 0.46$ 0.48$
2021 0.48$ 0.47$
2022 0.50$ 0.46$
2023 0.50$ 0.45$
2024 0.50$ 0.45$
2025 0.50$ 0.45$
2026 0.50$ 0.45$
2027 0.51$ 0.45$
2028 0.51$ 0.45$
2029 0.51$ 0.45$
2030 0.51$ 0.45$
Levelized Avoided Cost By Year
Discounted 2020 $ / Therm QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY RESULTS
KATHY WOLD
MANAGER, ENERGY EFFICIENCY
•Why should you
CARE about natural
gas?
•You want customers
to use less?
•Potentially how much
less? Conservation
Potential Assessment
Why should you CARE about natural gas?
C Clean
A Affordable
R Resilient
E Efficient
Natural Gas
is clean
Natural gas produces 50% less CO2 than other fossil fuels –International Gas Union
Carbon emissions from the average natural gas home decline 1.2 percent per year –AGA 2021 Playbook
Natural Gas is
affordable
•Households that use natural gas for heating, cooking and clothes drying save an average
of $879 per year compared to homes using electricity for those applications. * American Gas Association 2021 Playbook
Natural Gas is Resilient
Pipeline infrastructure is underground, shielded from many disruptive
events
Much of the gas delivery system runs on its own supply
The ability to store gas further strengthens the self-reliant attributes of the gas system
-AGA 2021 Playbook
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NATURAL GAS
IS EFFICIENT
THE DIRECT USE OF NATURAL GAS IN AMERICA’S HOMES AND BUSINESSES ACHIEVES 91% ENERGY EFFICIENCY.
http://playbook.aga.org/
WAIT….YOU JUST
TOLD US ABOUT ALL
THIS NATURAL GAS
GOODNESS AND
NOW YOU WANT US
TO USE LESS?YES!
Demand Side Management (DSM) refers to resources acquired through the reduction of
natural gas consumption due to increases in efficiency of energy use.
Option A:Purchase MMBtu from Supplier A
$$$$
Option B:
Energy Efficiency ProgramTherm savings (MMbtu)$$
DSM: Resources acquired through the reduction of consumption due to energy efficiency
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CPA:
CONSERVATION
POTENTIAL
ASSESSMENT
WHAT IS IT?
Comprehensive analysis of all viable conservation/EE measures and total savings that could be achieved
Determines the most cost-effective energy efficiency measures
A tool for EE program planning
Provides energy savings inputs into the IRP
Landon DEEP Model
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8
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Technical Economic Achv. Max Achv. Base Achv. Low
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
Cumulative Therm Savings2021-2026
Residential Commercial
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
Cumulative Therm SavingsAchievable Base
Residential Commercial
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
Cumulative Therm SavingsAchievable Base
Residential Commercial
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
Cumulative Therm SavingsAchievable Base
Residential Commercial
24%
21%
51%
4%
Achievable Savings by Application
2021 ‐2026
Appliance Behavioral Envelope Hot Water HVAC Other Kitchen
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www.intgas.com/saveenergy www.intgas.com/saveenergy
www.intgas.com/saveenergy
Commercial Energy Efficiency
When we “acquire resources through the reduction of natural gas
consumption due to increases in efficiency of energy use,”...you save
money and energy!
And Money! Did I mention you save money?!
Turn this: Into this:QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
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BREAKBREAK GUEST SPEAKER
DAN KIRSCHNER, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
NORTHWEST GAS ASSOCIATION
SUPPLY & DELIVERY RESOURCES
BRIAN ROBERTSON
SUPERVISOR, RESOURCE PLANNING
What’s the goal? To meet the energy needs and expectations of our customers:
Reliability (365 days per year)
Security (delivery on the coldest day)
Competitive and stable prices
Efficiently meet future growth
Frequently evaluate the portfolio
GAS SUPPLY PLANNING
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES
What are Traditional Supply Resources?
Natural gas supply; the molecules or “commodity”
Interstate pipeline capacity
Storage facility capacity
Energy Efficiency
What are Non-Traditional
Supply Resources?
Renewable Natural Gas
Hydrogen
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES
Where Does "Our" Gas Come From?
Canadian gas supply (~90%)
British Columbia
Alberta
Rockies’ gas supply (~10%)
Wyoming, Colorado, Utah etc.
Access to supply somewhat dependent upon available transport capacity
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North
American
gas plays
Gas Supply Forecast - Observations
Robust increase in shale gas production
Mature basins (WCSB, gulf on & offshore)
Today: ample supply vs demand
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BY SOURCE 2000-2050
tight/shale gasother Lower 48 statesonshoreLower 48 states offshoreother
Source: EIA AEO2021
U.S. NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR
Bc
f
p
e
r
d
a
y
Source: EIA AEO2021
Gas Supply - Pricing
Natural gas is a commodity and market is liquid
Price follows supply and demand fundamentals
Price history & forecast
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES HISTORIC GAS PRICES
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Enbridge Explosion
HISTORIC GAS PRICES
Intermountain's IRP Price Forecast
Intermountain’s long-term planning price forecast is based on a blend of current market pricing along with long-term fundamental price forecasts.
The fundamental forecasts include sources such as Wood Mackenzie, EIA, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), Bentek and the Financial Forecast Center’s long-term price forecasts.
Used weighted prices from the sources based on historical performance, beginning in year two of the forecast.
While not a guarantee of where the market will ultimately finish, Henry Hub NYMEX is 100% of the forecast for the first year as it is the most current information that provides some direction as to future market prices.
Intermountain is gathering Renewable Natural Gas information and plans to model RNG as a potential resource in the upstream optimization process.
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES
Preliminary Weights:Sumas – 10%Rockies – 10%AECO – 80%
INTERMOUNTAIN'S IRP PRICE FORECAST
Questions or Comments?
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
2021-26 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
INTERSTATE TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE RESOURCES
Intermountain holds firm, long-term contracts for interstate capacity on four (4) pipelines - two U.S. and two Canadian
All gas directly delivered to Intermountain comes through the Williams Northwest system
Firm capacity on Northwest is determined at both receipt and delivery points
INTERSTATE TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE RESOURCES
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Interstate Transportation Capacity – cont.
Delivery to Intermountain Service Territory
Firm Capacity Held Directly by Intermountain
City Gate Delivery Direct from Suppliers
Capacity Segmentation
Capacity Release and Mitigation for Intermountain
Market forces drive new capacity projects
INTERSTATE TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE RESOURCES
NORTHWEST PIPELINE,
GTN, NOVA AND
FOOTHILLS
CAPACITY RESOURCES
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Sumas (3k is winter only) 93,941 93,941 93,941 93,941 90,941 90,941
Stanfield 133,774 133,774 133,774 133,774 133,774 130,624
Rockies 103,328 103,328 94,328 94,328 94,328 50,328
Citygate 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 0
Total Capacity 341,043 341,043 332,043 332,043 329,043 271,893
Storage Withdrawals with Bundled Capacity 185,512 185,512 185,512 185,512 185,512 155,175
Maximum Deliverability 526,555 526,555 517,555 517,555 514,555 427,068
Northwest Daily Maximum Transportation Capacity (MMBtu)
What is storage?
Natural or man-made structures where natural gas can be
injected and stored for later retrieval
Gas is normally injected during periods of lower demand
and lower prices
Gas is usually withdrawn during periods of higher demand
and higher prices
STORAGE RESOURCES
Why do we need storage?
Demand curve is notlinear
Annual supply curve somewhat linear
Transport capacity is very linear
Not feasible to meet peak demand with only interstate capacity and must-take gas purchases alone
Storage enhances winter/peak delivery capability and minimizes costs by balancing flat supply with seasonal demands
STORAGE RESOURCES
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361
MM
B
t
u
(
0
0
0
'
s
)
Example Load Duration CurveWith Only Storage and Gas Supply
Transport CapacityStorage W ithdrawals
Storage Injections
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14
Uses
“Needle” peaking
Winter baseload
Day-to-day load balancing
Natural gas price hedge
System integrity/emergency issues
Types
Liquefied Storage (LNG)
Underground
STORAGE RESOURCES
Liquefied Storage Characteristics
Natural gas is liquefied @ minus 260°F
Liquid occupies 1/600 volume of vapor
Nearly pure methane, non-corrosive, non-toxic and yes, SAFE
High regasification/withdrawal capability
Ideal for needle peaking, system balancing and system integrity issues
STORAGE RESOURCES
Liquefied Storage Characteristics
Liquefaction is slow which limits ability to cycle inventory
Liquefaction is energy intensive high cycling and inventory cost
Generally stored in above-ground tanks
No methane is released into the atmosphere
STORAGE RESOURCES PLYMOUTH LNG FACILITY
Underground Storage Characteristics
Gas is injected under pressure into developed salt domes, depleted well structures, underground aquifers or other porous geological formations
Maximum daily withdrawal less than liquid storage; operating capability is dependent upon inventory level and pressure
Injections comparatively faster and cycling costs are lower than liquid storage; multiple inventory cycles can enhance cost effectiveness
STORAGE RESOURCES
Location & Type of Storage used by Intermountain
Nampa, ID LNG – liquid (Intermountain)
Plymouth, WA LNG – (Northwest Pipeline)
Rexburg, ID Satellite LNG (Intermountain)
Jackson Prairie - underground aquifer in western WA (Northwest Pipeline)
Clay Basin - underground depleted well reservoir in NE Utah (Questar Pipeline)
STORAGE RESOURCES
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STORAGE RESOURCES - LOCATIONS STORAGE RESOURCES
Daily Withdrawal Daily Injection
Facility SeasonalCapacity % ofNov-Mar Maximum % of Peak Max Vol # of DaysRedeliveryCapacity
Nampa 600,000 1% 60,000 16% 3,500 166 None
Plymouth*1,475,135 4% 155,175 43% 12,500 213 TF-2
Jackson Prairie 1,092,099 3% 30,337 8% 30,337 36 TF-2
Clay Basin 8,413,500 20%70,114 19%70,114 120 TF-1
Grand Total 11,580,734 28%315,626 86%116,451
Intermountain’s 2020/21 Storage Statistics (MMBtu)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
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MM
B
t
u
(
0
0
0
'
s
)
Days
Sample LDC with Efficient Mix of All Supply Resources
Storage Not Needing Interstate Citygate Delivered
Stora e & Winter Gas Needin Interstate
Year round Gas
Transport Capacity
Storage Injections
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
Jacob.Darrington@intgas.com
Please provide comments and feedback within 10 days
THIRD MEETING
July 26, 2021, 9:00 a.m. - Noon
Non-Traditional Resources
Load Demand Curves
Distribution System Overview
Optimization and Distribution System Enhancements
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Intermountain Gas Company
July 26, 2021 IGRAC Committee Meeting Slides
Integrated Resource Plan 2021 – 2026
Exhibit No. 1
Section D
July 22, 2021
Good afternoon,
We’re looking forward to hosting you all for our third IRP Stakeholder meeting Monday morning. This
meeting will cover the following planning topics:
Load Demand Curves
Potential Capacity Enhancements
Resource Optimization
We are also excited to welcome special guest speaker Nolan Hill, CEO of Highland West Energy, for a
presentation on Combined Heat and Power (CHP) technology to kick the meeting off. The link in the
calendar invitation or below should give you access to the meeting. If you have any issues connecting
Monday morning, please contact Jacob Darrington at Jacob.Darrington@intgas.com.
See you Monday!
Lori
Lori Blattner
DIRECTOR, REGULATORY AFFAIRS
208.377.6015 | Lori.Blattner@intgas.com
1
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
JULY 26, 2021
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS RESOURCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE (IGRAC)
WELCOME
Introductions
Feedback Process
Agenda
AGENDA
Welcome & Introductions – Jacob Darrington (Manager, Regulatory Affairs)
Safety Moment – Dave Swenson (Manager, Industrial Services)
Guest Speaker – Combined Heat and Power – Nolan Hill (CEO, Highland West Energy)
Load Demand Curves –Brian Robertson (Supervisor, Resource Planning)
Potential Capacity Enhancements – Kathleen Campbell (Engineer III, Engineering Services)
Resource Optimization –Brian Robertson (Supervisor, Resource Planning)
Questions/Discussion
Demand Supply & Delivery Resources
Economic Overview
Residential & Commercial Customer Growth
Load Demand Curves
Industrial Demand
Design WeatherResidential & Commercial Usage Per Customer
Optimization Modeling
Transportation Capacity & Storage Distribution System Overview
Demand Supply & Deliverability
Energy Efficiency:
Residential & Commercial
Natural Gas Supplies
Non-Traditional Resources
System Enhancements
Demand Supply
SAFETY MOMENT
DAVE SWENSON
MANAGER INDUSTRIAL SERVICES
1 2
3 4
5 6
2
GUEST SPEAKER
COMBINED HEAT AND POWER
NOLAN HILL
CEO, HIGHLAND WEST ENERGY
LOAD DEMAND CURVES
BRIAN ROBERTSON
SUPERVISOR, RESOURCE PLANNING
LOAD DEMAND CURVE KEY VARIABLES
Based on Design Weather Conditions
Low, Base and High Growth Core Market Customer Projections
Customer Usage Per Degree Day
MDFQ for Large Volume Customers
PEAK SEASON CORE MARKET LOAD DEMAND CURVE
METHODOLOGY
Usage/Customer per Degree Day Forecasted Core Customers
Total Daily Usage
Large Volume MDFQ
Total Daily Usage
Demand Side Management
LOAD DEMAND CURVE
Load Demand Curve: A forecast of Daily Gas Demand Using ‘Design’ Temperatures,
and Predetermined ‘Usage Per Customer’
Designed to Measure Distribution Capacity at Our 5 Areas of Interest (AOIs)
To Measure Total Company for Upstream Capacity
LOAD DEMAND CURVE
Based on Current Resources or Resources Scheduled to be Available During the IRP
Period
Remedies for Any Constraints Will be Identified Later
Storage Management
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DESIGN
CAPACITY OF
DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM
Idaho Falls Lateral
Sun Valley Lateral
Canyon County Lateral
State Street Lateral
Central Ada County
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QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENTS
KATHLEEN CAMPBELL, P.E.
ENGINEER III, ENGINEERING SERVICES
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING PROCESS TO ENSURE WE CAN
MEET IRP GROWTH PREDICTIONS
To evaluate our systems for predicted IRP growth and potential future deficits we use our gas modeling software, Synergi Gas
Synergi Gas models incorporates:
Total customer loads
Existing pipe and system configurations
To ensure we can meet the IRP growth predications we evaluate the AOIs for the growth predictions in the 5-
year forecast using the design day conditions and usage per customer
If any deficits occur in a AOI then the system is evaluated and reinforcement/enhancement alternatives that meet
IRP growth needs are compared in the model with alternative analysis considerations
PROCESS TO DETERMINE SYSTEM CAPACITY ENHANCEMENTS AND
ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS CONSIDERATIONS
Each AOI is modeled by year for IRP growth to determine if and in what year a AOI deficiency will occur
AOI deficiencies are defined when a critical system to the AOI is at or limiting capacity
Critical system examples include:
Minimum Inlet pressure to a regulator station or HP system.
End of line pressure and or required customer delivery pressure
Once an AOI deficiency is determined the model is analyzed for system capacity enhancements to address the deficiency
The system capacity enhancements are compared using alternative analysis methodology
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ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS CONSIDERATIONS AND PROCESS:
Alternative analysis considerations include:
Cost
Capacity Increase (total capacity gained)
System benefits
Long term planning
Other considerations
i.e. if a line needs to be uprated and would go to a Transmission Line.
Alternative analysis will be used to determine System Capacity enhancements selected and budgeted for in the 5-year budget
In this presentation we will be going over:
If an AOI has a deficit predicted in 5-year IRP forecast (2021-2026)
If an AOI has a deficiency what system capacity enhancements alternatives are being considered to address the deficit to ensure reliable service to our customers.
AREAS OF INTEREST (AOI)
Distribution System Segments:
Canyon County
Central Ada County Lateral
North of State Street Lateral
Sun Valley Lateral
Idaho Falls Lateral
All Other Customers
CANYON COUNTY AOI
Requires Reinforcements by 2021 and 2023 to meet IRP growth predictions
AOI Capacity Limiter: 6-inch, 8-inch and 10-inch HP Bottleneck on Ustick Rd
Alternatives Considered:
1- Ustick Phase II
2- Ustick Phase III
3- Ustick Uprate
4- 8-inch HP extension North of Ustick at 500 psig MAOP
CANYON COUNTY - BOTTLENECK
CANYON COUNTY ALTERNATIVE 1: USTICK PHASE II (SELECTED IN
2019 IRP- IN CONSTRUCTION)CANYON COUNTY ALTERNATIVE 2: USTICK PHASE III
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CANYON COUNTY ALTERNATIVE 3: USTICK UPRATE
CANYON COUNTY ALTERNATIVE 4: 8-INCH HP EXTENSION NORTH
OF USTICK RD AT 500 PSIG MAOP
Canyon County Alternative Summary
Alternative # Alternative Description Alternative Cost ($) Alternative Capacity (th/day) Alternative Capacity Gain (%)
1 Ustick Phase II $ 3,190,000.00 1,032,000 0%
2 Ustick Phase III $ 8,480,000.00 1,390,000 35%
3 Ustick Uprate $ 1,300,000.00 1,178,000 14%
4 8‐inch HP Extension north of Ustick $ 6,340,000.00 1,232,000 19%
CANYON COUNTY IRP UPDATES
STATE STREET LATERAL AOI
Requires Reinforcements by 2023 to meet IRP growth predictions
AOI Capacity Limiter: 12-inch HP Bottleneck on State Street and 4 in HP Bottleneck on Linder Rd
Alternatives Considered:
1- State Street Phase II Uprate
2- Replace 12-inch HP on State Street and Replace 4-inch HP on Linder to operate at 500 psig MAOP
STATE STREET AOI - BOTTLENECK
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STATE STREET LATERAL ALTERNATIVE 1: STATE STREET PHASE II
UPRATE STATE STREET LATERAL ALTERNATIVE 2: REPLACE 12-INCH HP ON STATE
STREET AND 4-INCH HP ON LINDER TO OPERATE AT 500 PSIG MAOP
State Street Alternative Summary
Alternative # Alternative Description Alternative Cost ($)Alternative Capacity (th/day) Alternative Capacity Gain (%)
1 State St. Phase II Uprate $ 2,000,000.00 950,000 16%
2
Replace 12‐inch HP on State St and
Linder to operate at 500# $ 5,400,000.00 950,000 16%
CENTRAL ADA COUNTY AOI
Requires Reinforcements by 2022 to meet IRP growth predictions
AOI Capacity Limiter: 10-inch and 8-inch HP Bottleneck on Meridian Rd and Victory Rd
Alternatives Considered:
1- 12-inch South Boise Loop
2- Uprate 10-inch HP on Meridian and Victory Rd to operate at 500 psig
3- Install compressor station on Victory Rd to boost pressure to 380 psig at Cloverdale
CENTRAL ADA COUNTY AOI - BOTTLENECK CENTRAL ADA ALTERNATIVE 1: 12-INCH SOUTH BOISE LOOP
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CENTRAL ADA ALTERNATIVE 2: UPRATE 10-INCH HP ON MERIDIAN
AND VICTORY RD TO OPERATE AT 500 PSIG
CENTRAL ADA ALTERNATIVE 3: INSTALL COMPRESSOR STATION ON
VICTORY RD TO BOOST PRESSURE TO 380 PSIG AT CLOVERDALE RD
Ada County Alternative Summary
Alternative # Alternative Description Alternative Cost ($)Alternative Capacity (th/day) Alternative Capacity Gain (%)
1 12‐inch South Boise Loop $ 10,200,000.00 870,000 17%
2
Uprate 10‐inch HP on Meridian and
Victory Rd $ 2,000,000.00 817,000 10%
3 Compressor Station at Victory and Cloverdale $ 12,000,000.00 817,000 10%
SUN VALLEY LATERAL AOI
Requires Reinforcements by 2021 to meet IRP growth predictions.
AOI Capacity Limiter: End of line pressure to Ketchum area
Alternatives Considered:
1- Shoshone Compressor Station
SUN VALLEY LATERAL AOI - BOTTLENECK
CENTRAL ADA ALTERNATIVE 1: SHOSHONE COMPRESSOR STATION
(SELECTED IN 2019 IRP – IN CONSTRUCTION)
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Sun Valley Lateral Alternative Summary
Alternative # Alternative Description Alternative Cost ($)
Alternative Capacity
(th/day) Alternative Capacity Gain (%)
1 Shoshone Compressor Station $ 5,000,000.00 247,500 0%
IDAHO FALLS LATERAL AOI
Requires Reinforcements by 2023 to meet IRP growth predictions.
AOI Capacity Limiter: End of line pressure to St. Anthony’s
Alternatives Considered:
1- Blackfoot Compressor Station
2- Phase VI with a second Satellite LNG tank at Rexburg
IDAHO FALLS AOI - BOTTLENECK IDAHO FALLS ALTERNATIVE 1: BLACKFOOT COMPRESSOR STATION
IDAHO FALLS ALTERNATIVE 2: PHASE VI WITH A SECOND SATELLITE
LNG TANK AT REXBURG
Idaho Falls Lateral Alternative Summary
Alternative # Alternative Description Alternative Cost ($)
Alternative Capacity
(th/day)Alternative Capacity Gain (%)
1 Blackfoot Compressor Station $ 15,000,000.00 1,093,000 21%
2
Phase VI with a second LNG tank
at Rexburg $ 28,100,000.00 963,000 7%
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AOI CAPACITY SUMMARY AND TIMING BASED ON LIKELY
ALTERNATIVE SELECTED:
Year Ada County AOI Capacity (th/day)
Ada County AOI
Reinforcement Required
State Street Lateral AOI
Capacity (th/day)
State Street Lateral AOI
Reinforcement Required
Nampa County AOI Capacity (th/day)
Nampa County AOI
Reinforcement Required
Sun Valley Lateral AOI
Capacity (th/day)
Sun Valley AOI Reinforcement Required
Idaho Falls Lateral AOI Capacity (th/day)
Idaho Falls AOI Reinforcement Required
2021 745,000 None 820,000 None 1,032,000.00 12‐inch Ustick Phase II 200,000
Shoshone
Compressor Station 904,000.00 None
2022 870,000 12‐inch S Boise Loop 820,000 None 1,032,000.00 None 247,500 None 904,000.00 None
2023 870,000 None 950,000
State Street Phase II Uprate 1,390,000.00 12‐inch Ustick Phase III 247,500 None 1,093,000.00 IFL Compressor Station
2024 870,000 None 950,000 None 1,390,000.00 None 247,500 None 1,093,000.00 None
2025 870,000 None 950,000 None 1,390,000.00 None 247,500 None 1,093,000.00 None
2026 870,000 None 950,000 None 1,390,000.00 None 247,500 None 1,093,000.00 None
QUESTION OR COMMENTS ON:
QUESTIONS?
IRP OPTIMIZATION MODEL
BRIAN ROBERTSON
SUPERVISOR, RESOURCE PLANNING
Draft Design Base Results
Demand Supply & Delivery Resources
Economic Overview
Residential & Commercial Customer GrowthIndustrial Demand
Design Weather
Design Residential & Commercial Usage
Transportation, Capacity & Storage Distribution System Overview
Supply & Deliverability
Energy Efficiency –R&C
Natural Gas
Supplies
Non-Traditional Resources
Demand Supply
Load Demand Curves
Optimization Modeling
Demand
System Enhancements
IRP OPTIMIZATION MODELING
IGC IRP Model “Integrates”/Coordinates all the main functional elements of IGC operation:
Gas Demand/Load, how much & where is gas consumed, “Load Duration Curve” (LDC) by area of interest.
Gas Supply, from where, how much, and what price is gas supplied to meet demand (LDC).
Gas Transport, how does gas move from supply to demand area given pipeline size and prices.
Demand Side Management (DSM), cost effective energy efficiency is used to reduce demand
Local Gas Distribution, local lateral sizing is explicitly modeled to meet demand & ensure reliability
The IRP model utilizes SENDOUT®, a linear optimization model, to determine the least cost manner to have loads served by supply, transport, DSM & laterals.
All results presented here are draft subject to further IGC review.
WHAT IS OPTIMIZATION?
Utilizes a standardmathematical technique called “linear programming” …to
optimize over all possible combinations.
The model knows the exact load and price for every day of the planning period
based on the analyst’s input and can therefore minimize costs in a way that would not
be possible in the real world.
Therefore, it is important to recognize that linear programming analysis provides
helpful but not perfect information to guide decisions.
Selects from a mix of resources over planning horizon to meet forecasted loads
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MODEL ELEMENTS
Functional components:
Demand forecast (Area’s of Interest)
Traditional supply resources
Existing and potential gas supplies by basin
Storage resources
Transportation capacity resources
Price forecast
Non-traditional supply e.g., new distribution capacity, RNG, DSM etc.
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Transport, Storage, Supply, & Demand Areas to Idaho (IGC))
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Transport
•Transportation contracts are the means of how Intermountain gets the gas from the supplier to the end user.•Transportation has an MDQ, a D1 rate, a transportation rate, and a fuel loss percentage.•A maximum delivery quantity (MDQ) which is the maximum amount of gas Intermountain can move on the pipeline on a single day.•A D1 rate which is the reservation rate to have the ability to move the MDQ amount on the pipeline.•A transportation rate which is the rate per dekatherm that is actually moved on the pipeline.•The fuel loss percentage is the statutory percent of gas based on the tariff from the pipeline that is lost and unaccounted for from the point of where the gas was purchased to the citygate.
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Storage
•Intermountain has storage at 5
locations: Jackson Prairie (JP), Plymouth (Ply), Clay Basin, Nampa, and Rexburg.•Storage injections targets are set at
35% by the end of June, 80% by the end of August, and 100% by the end of September to emulate cycling storage for non-needle peaking storage.•Intermountain can withdrawal
approximately 30,377 dth per day from JP, 155,175 dth per day from Plymouth, and 70,144 dth per day from Clay Basin
for a total of approximately 255,626 dth per day of off-system storage.•Intermountain can withdrawal approximately 60,000 dth per day from Nampa and 5,500 dth per day from
Rexburg for a total of approximately 65,500 dth per day of on-system storage.
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Supply
•Intermountain can purchase gas at three markets; AECO, SUMAS, and OPAL.•At each market Intermountain
can purchase gas at different locations along the pipeline.•For each year, Intermountain
uses Base, Fixed, Winter base, Summer and Winter day gas, and Peak day incremental supplies as inputs.•Over the planning horizon, the
contracts are renewed in November and April.
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MODEL
STRUCTURE
Supply
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Demand Area
•Demand is forecasted at the five areas of interest, as well as all other customers.
•Demand is determined by the load demand curves.•Each area of interest has DSM, which decrements
demand at the avoided cost price.
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Transport, Storage, Supply, & Demand Areas to Idaho (IGC))
DRAFT MODEL
RESULTS -
LATERALS
Lateral Capacity Summary By Year
2021Base Year (Dth)
Area of Interest Core Peak Day Transport % of Transport Total Peak Day Capacity % of Capacity
IDAHO FALLS 62,926 72,420 87% 84,207 90,400 93%
SUN VALLEY 18,406 21,184 87% 20,341 24,750 82%
CANYON COUNTY 68,791 79,170 87% 93,531 103,200 91%
STATE STREET 70,114 80,692 87% 71,104 82,000 87%
CENTRAL ADA 70,145 80,728 87% 70,995 74,500 95%
ALL OTHER 167,143 192,361 87% 257,711
2022Year 2 (Dth)
Area of Interest Core Peak Day Transport % of Transport Total Peak Day Capacity % of Capacity
IDAHO FALLS 64,937 72,328 90% 86,218 90,400 95%
SUN VALLEY 18,809 20,950 90% 20,744 24,750 84%
CANYON COUNTY 72,756 81,037 90% 97,546 103,200 95%
STATE STREET 72,284 80,512 90% 73,274 82,000 89%
CENTRAL ADA 71,295 79,411 90% 72,245 74,500 97%
ALL OTHER 172,663 192,316 90% 263,496
2023Year 3 (Dth)
Area of Interest Core Peak Day Transport % of Transport Total Peak Day Capacity % of Capacity
IDAHO FALLS 66,479 70,898 94% 87,810 90,400 97%SUN VALLEY 19,083 20,351 94% 21,018 24,750 85%
CANYON COUNTY 75,629 80,656 94% 100,419 103,200 97%
STATE STREET 74,518 79,471 94% 75,508 82,000 92%
CENTRAL ADA 72,457 77,273 94% 73,407 74,500 99%
ALL OTHER 177,131 188,905 94% 268,514
DRAFT MODEL LATERAL
RESULT
2024Year 4 (Dth)
Area of Interest Core Peak Day Transport % of Transport Total Peak Day Capacity % of Capacity
IDAHO FALLS 68,029 70,671 96% 89,360 90,400 99%
SUN VALLEY 19,360 20,112 96% 21,295 24,750 86%
CANYON COUNTY 78,588 81,641 96% 103,378 103,200 100%
STATE STREET 76,823 79,807 96% 77,813 82,000 95%
CENTRAL ADA 73,634 76,495 96% 74,584 74,500 100%
ALL OTHER 181,769 188,830 96% 275,097
2025Year 5 (Dth)
Area of Interest Core Peak Day Transport % of Transport Total Peak Day Capacity % of Capacity
IDAHO FALLS 69,448 69,950 99% 90,779 90,400 100%
SUN VALLEY 19,634 19,775 99% 21,569 24,750 87%
CANYON COUNTY 81,553 82,142 99% 106,343 103,200 103%
STATE STREET 79,183 79,754 99% 80,173 82,000 98%
CENTRAL ADA 74,812 75,352 99% 75,762 74,500 102%
ALL OTHER 186,238 187,582 99% 279,566
2026Year 6 (Dth)
Area of Interest Core Peak Day Transport % of Transport Total Peak Day Capacity % of Capacity
IDAHO FALLS 70,825 57,891 122% 92,206 90,400 102%
SUN VALLEY 19,830 16,208 122% 21,765 24,750 88%
CANYON COUNTY 83,917 68,591 122% 108,707 103,200 105%
STATE STREET 81,614 66,709 122% 82,604 82,000 101%
CENTRAL ADA 76,002 62,122 122% 76,952 74,500 103%
ALL OTHER 190,300 155,546 122% 283,628
TRANSPORTATION SHORTFALL SOLVES
Contract Renewal
Alternative Transportation Uptake
Renewable Natural Gas
Others?
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DRAFT MODEL RESULT GENERAL SUPPLY BALANCE
SUMMARY
Year 2
Supply Area Oct‐21 Nov‐21 Dec‐21 Jan‐22 Feb‐22 Mar‐22 Apr‐22 May‐22 Jun‐22 Jul‐22 Aug‐22 Sep‐22
AECO 966,351 3,888,301 4,078,794 4,078,794 3,684,072 4,074,276 941,055 972,423 941,055 972,423 972,423 941,055 Sumas 0 0 0 1,578,478 912,964 38,137 2,063,482 3,367,967 151,652 0 0 1,405,006
Rockies 3,140,632 995,607 1,029,634 1,029,634 929,992 1,028,794 2,103,420 2,173,534 2,103,420 9,186 0 1,682,700
ALL OTHER 4,774 4,620 4,774 12,307 11,116 12,307 11,910 12,307 11,910 12,307 12,307 11,910
CENTRAL ADA 1,705 1,650 1,705 4,340 3,920 4,340 4,200 4,340 4,200 4,340 4,340 4,200
CYN CNTY 1,426 1,380 1,426 3,751 3,388 3,751 3,630 3,751 3,630 3,751 3,751 3,630
ID FALLS 1,023 990 1,023 3,007 2,716 3,007 2,910 3,007 2,910 3,007 3,007 2,910
N STATE ST 1,953 1,890 1,953 5,022 4,536 5,022 4,860 5,022 4,860 5,022 5,022 4,860 SUN VLLY 124 120 124 434 392 434 420 434 420 434 434 420 Storage 0 571,864 3,338,680 4,211,222 1,963,192 1,190,136 0 0 0 0 0 0
DRAFT MODEL RESULT GENERAL SUPPLY BALANCE
SUMMARY
Year 6
Supply Area Oct‐25 Nov‐25 Dec‐25 Jan‐26 Feb‐26 Mar‐26 Apr‐26 May‐26 Jun‐26 Jul‐26 Aug‐26 Sep‐26
AECO 961,135 3,935,755 4,078,794 4,078,794 3,684,072 4,078,794 916,587 947,140 916,587 947,140 947,140 916,587 Sumas 2,494,331 0 0 3,550,496 1,657,785 210,064 2,317,964 1,242,017 2,405,680 0 0 1,582,526
Rockies 1,029,634 996,420 1,029,634 1,029,634 929,992 1,598,847 2,103,420 2,173,534 1,080,858 1,029,634 1,029,634 996,420
ALL OTHER 42,935 41,550 42,935 55,924 50,512 55,924 54,120 55,924 54,120 55,924 55,924 54,120
CENTRAL ADA 14,880 14,400 14,880 19,251 17,388 19,251 18,630 19,251 18,630 19,251 19,251 18,630
CYN CNTY 14,260 13,800 14,260 19,158 17,304 19,158 18,540 19,158 18,540 19,158 19,158 18,540
ID FALLS 14,942 14,460 14,942 21,669 19,572 21,669 20,970 21,669 20,970 21,669 21,669 20,970
N STATE ST 17,174 16,620 17,174 22,196 20,048 22,196 21,480 22,196 21,480 22,196 22,196 21,480 SUN VLLY 2,728 2,640 2,728 4,185 3,780 4,185 4,050 4,185 4,050 4,185 4,185 4,050 Storage 0 1,057,240 4,205,047 3,344,855 1,963,192 1,046,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
DRAFT MODEL RESULT GENERAL SUPPLY BALANCE
SUMMARY
DRAFT MODEL RESULT GENERAL SUPPLY BALANCE
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Employs Utility Standard Practice Method To Optimize System
Models DSM & Storage
Handles storage withdrawal and injection across seasons
Provides a check on need for lateral expansion.
Provides a check on transport and supply capacity
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?
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FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
IRP.Comments@intgas.com
Please provide comments and feedback within 10 days
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