20191018IRP Exhibit 1.pdf

Interrnountain Gas Company
lntegrated Resource PIan
2019 - 2023
INTERMOUNTAI N'
GAs COMPANY
A Subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, lnc,
ln the Communw to Serve@
Fall 2019
Book Lof2
Exhibits 1 - 3
lntermountain Gas Company
Exhibit I Section A:
Exhibit I Section B:
Exhibit I Section C:
Exhibit 2 Section A:
Exhibit 2 Section B:
Exhibit 2 Section C:
Exhibit 2 Section D:
Exhibit 2 Section E:
Exhibit 2 Section F:
Exhibit 3:
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Book I of 2
lG RAC Committee Member Invitations/Listi ng
Boise, Twin Falls, ldaho Falls Advisorly Committee Meeting Invitation
Letter, Sign ln Sheet and Agenda
Boise, Twin Falls, Idaho Falls Advisory Committee Meeting
Presentations
John Church Economic Forecast
lntermountain Gas Company Penetration Rates
lntermountain Gas Company Conversion Rates
Base Case - New Customers, Adjustments and Total Customers
High Growth - New Customers, Adjustments and Total Customers
Low Growth - New Customers, Adjustments and Total Customers
H istorical Temperature C li mate Report
lntegrated Resource Plan 2Otg - 2023
lntermountain Gas Company
IGRAC Committee Member lnvitations/Listing
lntegrated Resource Plan 20 I g - 2023
INTERMOUNTAI N'
GAs COMPANY
A Subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, lnc.
ln the Community to Serve@
Exhibit No. 1
Section A
Fall 2019
July l l,20l8
Name
Company/Organization
Address
City, State Zip
Dear Name,
Intermountain Gas Company is in the process of establishing an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
advisory committee, and you are invited to become a contributing member. Intermountain's IRP is
a five-year forecast plan filed every two years with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission that
details how Intermountain will meet our customers' demand for natural gas over the forecast period.
During committee meetings, Intermountain Gas Company employees will present, in detail, each
step of the planning process that creates the Company's outlook for supply and demand on its
distribution system. Committee members will have the opportunity to review the entire process, ask
questions and provide input to help facilitate a thorough plan.
There will be several meetings during the development of Intermountain Gas Company's 2019 IRP.
Meetings will be held at various locations across Idaho. More details about upcoming meetings will
be provided at a future date to committee members that RSVP.
Please respond with your interest in becoming a committee member to Raycee White at208-377-
6046 or email to 20l [e-mail], no later than Friday, August 3l't, 2018.
Sincerely,
Eric Wood
Gas Supply Supervisor
Cascade Natural Gas
Intermountain Gas Company
)drYlvr
John
Chatburn
ldaho Office of Energy
Resources
Northwest Pipeline-
Dave Allred Williams
Amy's Kitchen
Randy
Thomas
REDI of Eastern ldaho
Dana
Kirkham
Snake River Economic
Development AllianceKit Kamo
Western Alliance For
Tina Wilson Economic Development
SEIDO (Southern ldaho
Economic Development
Organization)
Connie
Stopher
Caldwell Economic
SteveFultz Development
Beth lneck
Nampa Economic
Development
Pocatello/Chubbuck
Matt Hunter Chamber of Commerce
Ethan
Mansfield
Boise Valley Economic
Partnership
Bingham County
Scott Reese Economic Development
Mike
Morrison
ldaho Public Utilities
Commission
Kevin Keyt
ldaho Public Utilities
Commission
ldaho Public Utilities
Commission
Stacey
Donohue
Yao Yin
ldaho Public Utilities
Commission
Johan Kalala- ldaho Public Utilities
Kasanda Commission
Intermountain Gas Resource Advisory Committee Members
Name nization
Region
Western
Central
Eastern
N/A
Total
10
7
4
2
Members
77
lntermountain Gas Company
Boise, Twin Falls, ldaho Falls Advisory Committee
Meeting lnvitation Letter, Sign ln Sheet and Agenda
lntegrated Resource Plan 2019 - 2023
INTERMOUNTAI N'
GAS COMPANY
A Subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, lnc.
ln the Community to Serve@
Exhibit No. 1
Section B
Fall 2019
September 7,2018
Name
Company/Organization
Address
City, State Zip
Dear Name,
Thank you for accepting a position on Intermountain Gas Company's Integrated Resource Plan ("IIU"';
Advisory Committee. Intermountain's first IRP advisory committee meeting is scheduled for October l2th,
2018 in our Conference Center located on our campus at 555 S. Cole Road, Boise, ID. The meeting will be
held from 10am - l2pm with a luncheon and guest speaker to follow.
At this meeting, Intermountain Gas Company employees will present, and listen to suggestions regarding, the
following topics:
o Explain the overall IRP process.
o A high-level review of the Company's last Integrated Resource Plan.
o Define the focused geographic areas of the IRP, otherwise known as "Areas of Interest".
o Explain the process in establishing the IRP's customer growth, weather, and usage per customer.
Please RSVP by contacting Raycee White at208-377-6046, or email to [e-mail], no
later than Friday, September 2l't,2018.
Should you choose not to travel to attend, the meeting materials will be provided to you after the meeting for
your review and any feedback you may have regarding the materials.
Sincerely
Eric Wood
Gas Supply Supervisor
Cascade Natural Gas
Intermountain Gas Company
-^<?^'-_6
..1f
SIGN SHEET
Boise IRP Meeting
tn llE CoMurlty b SaN"
Name
Date: october 12, 2018
Location: lntermountain Gas Offices at 555 S, Cole Rd, Boise
Companv Name E-Mail
L.'L.
.-:('.
(
" {o,'€r'i|:), @fu
fizlo,lo.for.
$u,'ct"S.Allroi Lu'i t'/i,m-$ . r-D"q
,""+'tf'L,( c\-i-'1
n
Ss.t/r'.4{tr",,{P
:i -,'i;.t
-\ur rb
(C,+1
ivt (
+A C
tled
rc R
,(.: ,3/1r<
'rl',,' t*:,+ti-ll {lIEi t t":z
"1"r,,- t'7. t:; t"' -.[-rdi,u,r'-
.>r,c lc, ri(l i,"r ' (: t)Ft
{€.,
7.OZ/C
TF{,tfi
uz>'"{- p,'1o 7."rs
- i .- .'1' l r. ,-r t.\ L/
C
l/r.r'in
r 1.*{ia (
,i ko,-*TK
i i t.;U
Li ,,1r,*.'i i\ p'rrett ,., { il**.lx:* ,
letet Ewr
,L{fT,CL(
-r' / ,"I -!.aL-
l-\uJ 6.,\
I.,
(.) .
l
t
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
CAS COMPANY
A Subsidiary ot MDU Resaurces Group, lnc.
lntermountain Gas Resource Advisory
Committee (lGRaC) Meeting
Welcome, Guest Safety & lntroductions
Mike McGrath
Director - RegulatorT Affairs
IRP Purpose & Requirements
Mike McGrath
Director - Regulatory Affairs
System Overview
Eric Wood
Supervisor, Gas Supply
Residential & Commercia! Customer Growth
Cheryl lmlach
Manager, Energy Utilization
Design Heating Degree Days
Lori Blattner
Manager, Energy Efficiency & Regulatory Processes
AGENDA
October 12,2018
l0:00 am - l:00 pm
l0:00 am
l0:05 am
l0:15 am
l0:30 am
l0:45 am
I I:15 amDesign Residential and Commercial
Usage Per Customer
Russ Nishikawa
Manager, Engineering Services
Questions/Discussion I I:30 am
Lunch Presentation
Dan Kirschner
Executive Di rector, No rthwest Gas Association
I l:45 am
Additional Instructions:
Feedback is welcomed and encouraged. Please provide feedback on a Comment Card or email us at
[e-mail]. We ask that comments and feedback are received within l0 days following the
meeting, so that it can be considered in the development of the lntegrated Resource Plan (lRP).
November 28,2018
Name
Company/Organization
Address
City, State Zip
Dear Name,
Intermountain's second IRP advisory committee meeting is scheduled for December 4th, 2018 in our Twin Falls
District Office located at 451Alan Drive, Jerome, ID. The meeting will be held from lOam - l2pm with a
luncheon and guest speaker, Idaho Economist, John Church, to follow.
At this meeting, Intermountain Gas Company employees will present, and listen to suggestions regarding, the
following topics:
o Core Market Customer Forecasts
o Industrial Market Customer Forecasts
o Non-TraditionalResources
The Twin Falls District Office has limited parking available in front of the building for visitors. We ask that
you park in the cul-de-sac or along Alan Drive. Please see the attached map as a reference where parking is
highlighted in yellow.
Please RSVP by contacting Raycee White at208-377-6046, or email to [e-mail], no
later than Monday, November 30th, 2018.
Should you choose not to travel to attend, the meeting materials will be provided to you after the meeting for
your review and any feedback you may have regarding the materials.
Sincerely,
Eric Wood
Gas Supply Supervisor
Cascade Natural Gas
Intermountain Gas Company
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
GAS COMPANY
A Subsidlary of MDU Resources Group, lnc.SIGN IN SHEET
Twin
Date: December 4th, 2018
Location: Twin Falls District Office 45L Alan Drive, Jerome, lD
crffi
L' it'|
friffi
Name
-
Companv Name E-Mail
TPIJ r-r
lr'o?o '7* r-? et (?
rP u.e,sl,,r(ryto h* (n t
'\xno Errrtan't'tr4 tIil4q,'*lr-
-t^l-L^-L-ri{"- LC.?g,^ i. I*.t,.cL^ Ei
J T[;(iL Lu,rn-oL''u ?-
IL*rx l,tir laon.ttlzq*;ilC{ thnnr,r^4Drn i D.,ii--
T) r^ .^ 1/: ,?an o^n Qflitr I
Tr+ifitu Y,,p,iAtA - ttqx*teh*:IP(i*c
Mm lluu#*-7ru+ra* * 0t : atr (-rh^-^,4-n ttotu tec-@ ?e a*-r 4.t* ; $4 11* "
i- I r,.rng ad=(r-'Dka<-(i*.l.i W t ru u},r-r"vzrYL gx{,L i'.,04 . c a0iL-
tG(.'-L ,-, V; D^*-^ o'J*u^1(:( .\rt-f -
L
s'( -r CE cAvnPS&L lh( C 4r,,1 Fce P f '-) lfr
T-;th F '(t
ti',{trl G, 1,r',rh T{ui
.; - |(. ; tttttk-[ rLt I Lrr 1ti 1 gy u/
i,dnm #, )ohn cho,\h \t-f\ffire, cFmc-6\I
Snnc t "T1-rrnnfr t
1!I\t !
t(ennnie.
Y+e T1 lfler^ I t^t\C
tiC,C {CN
-7 -(ln1de to Sttcnh
Meetins
h-,'
'il(
P
r;nrl(?6c
f\l I trle t
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
CAS COMPANY
A SuMdiary of MDU Resources Grwp, lnc.AGENDA
lntermountain Gas Resource Advisory
Committee (IGRAC) Meeting
December 4,2018
l0:!5arrr-l:00pm
Welcome, Guest Safety & lntroductions l0:15 am
Russ Nishikawa
Manager, Engineering Services
IRP Purpose & Requirements l0:25 am
Russ Nishikawa
Manager, Engineering Services
Core Market Customer Forecasts
Cheryl lmlach
Manager, Energy Util ization
l0:35 am
lndustrial Customer Forecasts
Dave Swenson
Manager, lndustrial Services
I l:10 am
Non-Traditional Resources
Russ Nishikawa
Manager, Engineering Services
I l:35 am
Questions/Discussion I l:55 am
Lunch Presentation
John Church
Economist
ldaho Economics
I2:00 pm
Additional lnstructions:
Feedback is welcomed and encouraged. Please provide feedback on a Comment Card or email us at
20 [e-mail]. We ask that comments and feedback are received \ /ithin l0 days following the
meeting, so that it can be considered in the development of the Integrated Resource Plan (lRP).
White, Raycee
From:
Sent:
To:
Subject:
Attachments:
IGC 2019lRP Comments
Monday, June 10, 2019 8:34 AM
lntermountain IRP Advisory Committee Meeting lnvitation - July 17, 2019
Borismetrics Boris Prokop Bio.pdf
Good Morning,
lntermountain Gas Company is continuing to host a series of meetings across our service territory to review aspects of
the Company's lntegrated Resource Plan. Our final Advisory Committee Meeting will be held:
On: July !7th,2O1r9
At: Home2Suites by Hilton
1160 Whitewater Drive
ldaho Falls, !D
From: 10 am - 2 pm
Lunch will be included along with a presentation from our guest speaker, economist, Boris Prokop. For more information
about our guest speaker, please reference the attached bio.
At this meeting, lntermountain Gas Company employees will present, and listen to suggestions regarding the following:
Usage Per Customer
Energy Efficiency
Load Duration Curves
Optimization and Enhancements
Distribution System Enhancements
Please RSVP by contacting me at 208-377-6046 or responding to this email no later than Wednesday, June 25th, 2OL9, so
we can get an accurate count for lunch.
Should you choose not to travel to attend, the meeting materials will be provided to you after the meeting for your
review and any feedback you may have regarding the materials.
Sincerely,
Raycee White
Regulatory Analyst*ffi 208.377.6046
201-91 RP.Comments@ i ntsas.com
1
AHr.Emftui.nAINr f.D.6r].dttlt il' rrrHau. E
.r'^"{}+\
A INTERN,TOUNTAIN'
GAs COMPANY
A9u,6ldlary ol nDU Res/.rc,os Grup,lnc.SIGN lN SHEET
ldaho Falls I Meetine
Date: July L7rh,2ot9
Location: Home2Suites by Hilton 1160 Whitewater Drive ldaho Falls, lD
4..
CO'
Name Companv Name E-Mail
iGc -\a ''^-u S . ltt,n blnv A',-*^o s , ror,t^J5 N.rohr,
?i aG(
4
I\A;,c er \r)cvte
1
1 Tea 06t,'c- t
E
/Vr,y'o Zn-,r.n L)r,/. rq,//,'Zt'/vz*,rz, y'e - .y'2 t,* t I tz D Dr-n - tL/z-
Ltutn ov'.?:a;ok4,tv C*scne NLn/efi./ c*\LnOA. o€rc*ohlr-O MIIL, (op,
K n r'. s rhe L.^',a S knnl,( D bor',snn e\icst
Va+ttu Vlol"L
I -lCqL .woUe
fLL kt.&*mrt(o )nkat r
C russ. ,rr;slr;ko,,o @ tu,rom-'fccEFt'11\h+rrt
t
I_dnhr,, OFf,r o€ trcrric t Refnrrceo - t-lr:trHe .
\\
lnndr r Thc!-nn t Av-n t'5 \F
t
I icn (r\),\3cn - Fr-rr.,. f)arn
I
${nrnccu Fcrn C)a ln
ir
frtr.TIe-cmO Wtrls
NOSterte f\-\LrL
A
tYth\A6\ '\;*,
?r S"ntt Ropso
iTrrt ilxl^;h-"
harin hn.f+
hr
rH\ Lk mtec
Cn dr r)c\\ Fccn (^\
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
GAS COMPANY AGENDAA Suacldtaty of MaU Resf/.rces Grwp,lnc.
lntermountain Gas Resource Advisory
Committee (IGRAC) Meeting
fuly l7,2Oa9
l0:00 am - 2:00 pm
Welcome, Guest Safety & lntroductions l0:00 am
Lori Blattner
Director, Regulatory Affairs
IRP Purpose & Requirements l0:15 am
Lori Blattner
Director, Regulatory Affairs
Energy Efiiciency Results
Kathy Wold
Manager, Energy Efficiency
l0:25 am
Load Demand Curwes
Eric Wood
Supervisor, Gas Supply
l0:55 am
Lunch Presentation
Boris Prokup
Economist
Borismetrics
I l:30 pm
Distribution System Enhancements
Russ Nishikawa, P.E.
Manager, Engineering Services
l2:30 pm
Supply Equals Demand
Eric Wood
Supervisor, Gas Supply
l2:50 pm
Additional I nstructions:
Feedback is welcomed and encouraged. Please provide feedback on a Comment Card or email us at
[e-mail]. We ask that comments and feedback are received within l0 days following the
meeting, so that it can be considered in the development of the lntegrated Resource Plan (lRP).
A
lntermountain Gas Company
Boise, Twin Falls, ldaho Falls
Advisory Committee Meeting Presentations
lntegrated Resource Plan 20 I 9 - 2023
INTERMOUNTAI N'
GAS COMPANY
A Subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, lnc.
ln the Community to Serve@
Exhibit No. 1
Section C
Fall 2019
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
GAs COMPANY
A Subsidiary ot MDU Reswrces Group, lnc,
WELCOME
rGuest Safety & Comfort
rlntroductions
21.
AGENDA
lr-
,-(-
{-
welcofrqG!e.t Saftq & lntrcductions - fr*e Md@6
IRP Prpre ild aquiEm€nE to.2019 -il& M6rod
Syrem Ovedicw - &twd
Reiidenti.l & Commercid CurtomerG,d - Oeryl
De5iF H€atina DeF Dry - Loi tutuet
Oesian R6idc.dal & Commercid UraSe h.Cuibmer- to$ N6hit@d
QueitionrDi5css.ion
Lun.h PEcnbtion - Oon KiR.hn.L tud@ Dteor
Nodw.s! 6"iA$e@n
43
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
. Components of the lntegrated
Resource Plan, or lRP, Process
THE IRP PROCESS
Demand I supply I
65
IRPTEAM
. l'aike Mccrath - Dircdor, Reguldory Affoi6
. Ericwood - Superyisot,Gos SuWry
. Russ NishikaM - /r4onogetE gineetingseNices
. Lori Blaftner - Mon oge4 Energy Efiianq ond Regulototy P6esse.
r Dave Swenson - Monoger, lndu*iol Senices
r Cher),| lmlach - MonogeqEnergy Uiliza)on
. Rayceewhite - ReguldoryAnolyst
A
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
PROCESS OVERVIEW
OCTOBER IX 20I8 INTERMOUNTAN GA REOURCEADVISORY COMM]TEE (GMC]
87
muMDotcmM
Dis.riburion Syrrem SeSmenBl
r CentnlAda Counq ht.nl
SCENARIO DEFINITIONS
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. GROWTH
WEATHER
9
20IT IRPAND IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT LETTER
r Final Order No. 33997 - Commission Accepted lntermounainl 20 I 7 IRP Filing
. Commission SEff Recommendations:
. EsEblish an lRPAdvisory Commiree
. Prcvide Feedback. SuSSest lmprcvemenB to the Plan
r Sren8then NarrativeThrouthout the IRP
r Srengthen Explanation of Modelint/Analysis Process
r MoreThorouthb/ Explain DSI'4Analysis to lllusraleAll OPpoftunities Considered
INTERMOUNTAIN'S 20 I 7 IRP
. lnlermounGin! distribution syslem can deliver uninterrupted natual gas supplies to
iB firm customers throughout the IRP five-year planning horizon
r All "Areas of lnlerest" were individually derermined to have adequate natuml gas
delivery capabilit), to serye customers durinS "design" cold day temperatures
10
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
. Comment Cards
r 20 I [e-mail]
r Please provide comments and
feedback within l0 days
BENEFITS OFAN IRP
r Blueprint to meet the Company's firm customer demands over a five-year forecast
period based on various assumptions
. Provides frequent updates to $e projected growh on the Company's system
. Considers all available resources to meet the needs of the Companys customers on
a consistent and comparable basis
. Helps to ensure lntermounEin Gas Company will continue to provide reliable
energy service while minimizinS cosE
1.1 12
AREAS OF TNTEREST (AOt)
SYSTEM OVERVIEW
SUPERVISO& GA SUPPLY
13 t4
THROUGHPUT BY CUSTOMER CLASS
574
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
ilffiqffi_I +-
\\
15 16
REGIONAL PIPELINES
r.I.
RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL CUSTOMER
GROWTH
CHENT fiUCH
HANAGR ENEiGY fiIUANON
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
. lntermounain Gas Company is a natural gas local
distribution company, founded in I 950 and served its
first customer in I 956
r Provides service to 74 communities across southern
ldaho
. 350,000+ customers
. Delivered over 730 million therms in 2017
L7 18
FORECASTING COMPONENTS
. Economic Forecast- Sate of ldaho
. Household Growth Rate by Count),
. Market Penetation Rate byAOl
. Community Planning Association (COMPASS) Taffic Analysis Zones flAZ)
.'BooB-on-the-Ground" Observations/Feedback
19 20
MARKET
PENETRATION
RATE
. Houshold Go*h , Nil Homs ) NryG*
Cusbmer
ExistinS Residential ConveEion
d . Funcion of New Residential
21 22
AOt
GROWTH
RATE
'L jr
ECONOMIC FORECAST _ STATE OF IDAHO
. Provides County by County Proiections for wages, Employment, Population, and
Households
UtilizesTwo Methods for Population Prciections
r A Forecilr ofAnnual Births vs Deaths
r Econometric ModelWhich Forecass Population Gromh as a Function of
Economic Activity
3 Diverse Scenarios
. Comparison and Reconciliation
FORECAST
SCENARIOSAND
ASSUMPTIONS
HiSh Gro*h
l&ho .ondrud !o ouF.. mod 8ld'&rum.i ld.b .mdnLB b h 84.tu s an-@ud 6, .d
to@ts hFory hd on 6u.@ns iircFfr *id Bi
prc.snB & drchin.rrlhbnadon 'dLqS@n8 dpbpent F'B elsde
Hi8h.rtoplhnon G,wd ind H€fi*Emp,mdtL*
Hr8h.r Ralc ol Hous.hold Crcia.n dM &selin.
mruhdudn8 do.s nor re.ocr tuh d6sion
Arumor...ee6t.d lob lo$ in lood prccdslnS,dalyan! r$oci:Ed indu.ri..
l.,mtEtio^ E cuellod du. ro li.k otenploynren!.ppodunler
23 24
@ssEffid
I
t
New Residential Construction
Comp@d s
Cusmem
Small Commercial Customers
ffitlrufiMsffN
-:lE
Community Planning Ass€iation (COMPASS)C.-,- 1" M- (ClM) 20.10
AOt
GROWTH
RATE
STATE ST
CENTRALADA
25
DESIGN HEAI-ING DEGREE DAYS
MANAGER, ENERGY EFICICNCY & REGUUTORY M@SSEs
27
CUSTOMER GROWTH
Histor&lA.@.lA.quttion Frce.ate
Coll&ndo. wi& COfrPAS IE
26
DESIGN HEATING DEGREE DAYS
r Weather is a Key Residential & Commercial Demand Driver
t lmportant Goal of the IRP Process is to Ensure lntermountain! Ability to
Deliver Natural Gas to Customers Under Extremely Cold (Peak)
Temperature Conditions
28
HEATING DEGREE DAY(HDD)
r What is a Heating Degree Dayl
r lndustry-Wide Standard, Measuring How Cold theWeather is Based on
the Extent to Which the Daily Mean Temperature Falls Below a
ReferenceTemperature Base (65 Degrees)
. 65 Degrees - MeanTemperature = HDD
Example: Hithr5.+ De8rees
Low: 34 Degrees
Average = 44 Degrees
55 Degrees -,H Degrees = 2l HDD
NORMAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS
r Benchmark for the IRP
r Used for Routine Planning and Represent theTypical or"Normal"
Weather Expected on a Given Day
. Average Mean Degree Days for a Particular Day
. lntermountain Normal is a 3O-Year Rolling Average.
. Normal for the IRP is the 3O-Years Ended December 20 I 7.
29 30
. GIS Polygons of AOlt. Current Customer Count Extract. Traffic Analysis Zones Annual Growth
Allocation
DEVELOPMENT OF DESIGN HDD
. Desi8n Degre€ Days Model rhe ColdestTempea@res rhat May Occur on Our System
. Reviewed ldaho! Hisorical De8ree Day DaE From the National Oceanic andAmospheric
AdministEtion (NOAA) to ldentit the ColdestYears on Record
r October 1984 through September 1985 was the Coldest Heatint Season
r This PeriodAlso lncluded the Coldesr CriticalThree Month Heating Period (Dec-Feb)
. ThisYearWith Cer6in Modificarions RepresenB the Basis for th€ DesignYear (DY85)
31
t EnS3ged ldaho State Climatologist, Dr. Russell Qualls, to Conduct a Peak
Day Study
. Dr.Qualls'Work Enabled the Company to Choose a Design Peak Day
Temperature Corresponding rc a Selected Probability
r 50-Year Peak-Day Event was Selected (79 HDD)
33
DEGREE DAY GRAPH
t
,I
i!
DEVELOPMENT OF DESIGN HDD
. The ColdesrAclual Month (Dec I 985) Occurred Just Ouside the Design Yeai
. December I 985 Replaced January of DY85 to Represent the Coldest Month in the
Design BaseYear
32
34
MODIFICATIONSTOTHE PEAK MONTH
l) 5 (oldc$ conse([lve days for
dre 30 yer period selced (Frcm
De< 1990)
I
3) 5 Day modified period
insened into January in the
DesitnYear, with peak HDD
on January l5th for planning
PurPoses
2) Peak Day 50Year Probability
Event (79 HDD) replaced the
coldest day in the 5 coldest
days period
AOI DEGREE DAYS
r lntermountain! seryice area is climatologically diverse
r ldaho Falls or SunValley vs. Boise
. lntermountain has developed unique Degree Days for eachAOl
. Methods used to calculateAOl Degree Days mirror theTotal Company
aPProach
35 36
..t-APr
I
sep
DESIGN PEAK DAY
,__t--.&
I
Mar Apr Jul sep
DY January
DESIGN RESIDENTIALAND COMMERCIAL USAGE
PER CUSTOMER
MNrcER, ENGINEERING SERVIC6
37
CUSTOMER USAGETRENDS - IMPACT ON INTERMOUNTAIN'S
CUSTOMER BASE
nw sin@ 1990
lntemountain Gas Company Customer History
I
Em0.m
Srsoom
@,m
3$,m
tu,m
2S,m
1@@
s,m
0
. Consemtionlnfluences
Began lmpactint Ue8e
in the Early 1990!
67% of lnrermounEin\
Customers are New
Since 1990
39
CUSTOMER USAGETRENDS
. Nationally, Customers Use Less Natuml Gas Now Compared to DecadesAto
. EnerSy Efficient BuildinS Codes
r More Efticient Furnaces and Water Heaters
. lncresed Use of PrognmmableThermosaB
38
USAGE PER CUSTOMER MODELING METHODOLOGY
i Cusromer Management Module (CMM)
. Product from DNV GL
. Now Full), lmplemented into IRP Process
. Part of the Synergi Gas Product Line
40
USAGE PER CUSTOMER BYAOI
. Apply HDD for Each AOI Based on Weader Study
r Allows for a Unique Customer Usage Calculation Based on Geographic Location
. Can/on Countf ldentified Customers byTown. Created Sintle UsaSe
. CentBlAda & Sate Sreer GrcupedAollToSether as a Similar Customer Base
. Sunvalley Latenl: Variable UsaSe byTown
. ldaho Falls L:@nl: Vanable UsaSe byTown
CMM
METHODOLOGY
CMM Uses Historiol
Billing andweather DaE
to Create a Unique Usage
Analysis for Each
Customer
The Customer Usages are
Alsigned 6 the
Appropriate Pipeline
within {ntermounBint
Synergi Distribu!ion
Sysrem Hodel
Are Specific Heating
Degree Dap are Applied
to the UegeAnarsis
41.42
ADDITIONAL MEETINGS
. December 4,2018 -Twin Falls . June 2 I,20 19 - ldaho Falls
. WearherAnalysis Resul6
. UsaSe per Cusbmer Resul6
. Ene.y Eficiency
r Load Duation Curves
. Opdmiation and EnhancemenB
Core Market Customer Forecis6
Industrial Customer ForecasB
Non-Tadido.al Resou.ces
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
Commcnt Cd
r Comment Cards
r 20 I [e-mail]
r Ple6e provide commen6 and
feedback wi$in l0 days
43 44
Pug.tSound Eretsy
hbddg. Bc Pip.lin.
NWGA Memb€rs:
Iffimd.6TN
FiTWll.E Nw fiIdin.
Cad. N.tuEl Ga3
MtAC EnqylnhosnEin G.r Co.
What is "The Outlook"?. Unique look at regional gas
dynamics
Topics for today:
. Supply (abundant)
. Prices (low). Demand Growth (modest). Scenarios
. Capacity (sufficient...for now)
INwGA
1,2
3 4
Total Available U.S. Resource
ll
5 6
1
Hoilontsl Onling
"Unconventional" vs Conventional
E
d $;! d,tr $F d d d df de {,e.s,e dr ++
"*,,*&ffis,e.rl7 $NlalHA
I II
I
A
gt.I
GG'$UME REX(sEc@€oMEDNEI
North American Gas Supply
r+
.) Btblo@ldAftb\.4ttu@, BteLwtukl.#N'tu4 r)NWGA
rdrqbrhIxM.nrffiryll.mr!r.uBy.d.r.lo*.d
7 8
Projected NaturalGas
Pffce
^so3ro | .. -"-
I
9I,
el pf d .rf "d "d "6t d '+" d. "$ "dfir#ffi'r'*'*.-* $lSy-1HA
9 10
Recent Gas Demand
-cffil -mffEffi-Etr(@
t-I
{t J. Jdd'.f,f d/dd dd+."++ +'o'.C+'+"+Lo'
rlxratigR
2
Breakeven Price Comparisons
H.nry Hub pn..qdd b &EoL.16lS tu ttuE
tl$/'#"?i.//ro "d/
Q!*
r!!!wGA
Natura! Gas Price
brce tla Annual wel head Prlce adl6d 10 J2017 usire 815 CPI rlhttysa
,grclls ,qrer, ,ozo21 6lra ,pstt ,r9,zto' 66rts
1.7%
1_3*6It
11,12
/___
5715
2018 Outlook Forecast rr.r"z
CAGR) -Roid..t"r <oreda rndu3tor -eneatb.
Peak Day Forecast Comparison
. 2018 Pe.k Day fo.ecast
3
o
t'
2
1
.rr' .rf .tr .,r' -f d .d C' ..t' Ct
rtNwaA
Supply Demand Balance
::
lil il lllll
lordtqlp'1olo1o\i 1or.1)ionr'rotr'r.ril19rs6't6roJn rd,''
ixwsa
L3 1.4
t5
3
Questions?
Dan (hs.hoei €xecutve D redor
dliEh@@])*ru
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
GAS COMPANY
A Subsidiary of MDU Resurces Grcrup, lnc.
DECEMBER 4,20I8 INTERMI
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN:
CUSTOMER FORECASTS & NON.TRADITIONAL RESOURCES
WELCOME
rGuest Safety & Comfort
rlntroductions
1 2
. Mike MGGE$ - DiHor,Regulototy Affoi6
. Ericwood - Supefrisot,Gos SupPly
. Russ NishikaM - ivonoget,Engineeting Seryicet
r Lori Blamer - rVonoger,Energy Effrciency ond Regulotory P6esss
. Dave Swenson - Manogellndustiol Services
. Cheryl lmlach - MonogeL Eneryy Utilizdtjon
. Rayceewhite - RegulototfAnolyn
AGENDA
a-(-1r-
{-
Wdcom.,G@rt Satury & lndo.tioB- tos Nih,tdo
IRP Po?oE-to$ Nnhit@o
CoE rrter Cuttoher Fol!66 - O.ryl lnrod
lndu*.ial Customer Forec-6 ' Dore Sw.iion
Quertion./Dircussion
Lun.h Prelentation -./oh, Chu(h
3 4
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
r Components of the lntegrated
Resource Plan (lRP) Process
THE IRP PROCESS
Demand I supply I
5 6
IRPTEAM
AREAS OF INTEREST (AOI)
m.ImmEOaC*8
Dbr budon SI*em Segments:
. Cen@lA&CounryUt€al
,L;-rL_-_-)
I
7 8
CORE MARKET FORECAST
ilANAGER, ENERGY UIILIANON
FORECASTING COMPONENTS
. Economic Forecast- Shte of ldaho
r Household Gromh Rate by Counry - Base, High & Low Scenario
. Market Penetration Rare by Region
.'BooB-on-the-Ground" Observations/Feedback
9 10
I
ANNUAL TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS FORECAST
IilTERMOUNTAIN 5f RVI(E ARA
BENEFITS OFAN IRP
r Blueprin! to meet the Company! firm customer demands over a five-year forecast
period based on various assumptions
r Provides frequent updates to the projected gromh on the Company's system
r Considers all available resources to meet the needs of the Companyl customers on
a consastent and compamble basis
r Helps to ensure lntermounuin Gx Company will continue to provide reliable
energy service while minimizing costs
1.1.t2
ADDITIONAL HOUSEHOLDS
?
?
MARKET
GROWTH
VARIABLES
Existint Residential ConveBion
1.4
15
13
S:mple Calculadon
*J I
1,913
1,315
2@
UIfi NG RSIDEMAL CONVESIONS
cenhal
Eart
7.25%
79.m1&&10ffi
9.M23.&
22.27%
14.11S
7-W
20.6%
18.U
lt.4%
= Toal annud conreBion c!*oheB
SULL COMMERCIAL ACQUISTION ME
Toal annual new commercial .usbmeE 8.$%4.7*
s_a%
11.$%
77.4%
8.15%
10.M
11.@%8.ffi
1.6
NECNE.GMFORECN
aI^m6Eil.td&
*lB6i*
$rD
18 f,Otau ts
Bilurced.ictrLcbm adrid
qgl/
PENTMTION MTE OT Nry CONTRUSION
lllli r;p r*.r- [i
17 18
Household Growth t N* Homes , Ns GsCusmeB
Compued
CustomeB
Small Commercial Customers
Compu@d
CusbmeB
19
21.
FORECASTING GROWTH-
AREAS OF TNTEREST (AOt)
County Grcwth b, Oltdd
2OI9 IRP GROffiH FORECN ARffi OF INTERET (AOD
ulwt@lr3ErIilTEATmAN GASCflPffi
20
FORECASTING GROWTH.
AREAS OF TNTEREST (AOr)
County Gromh b/Area of lnterest (AOl)
22
Reallocation of County Growth
Disdd AOt
SV^EUlil
hN d D M
Blaine 9,5s 9,H 192
un.oln 1s7 1,9ts 4
8,8 13,112 E
Penetaiion 39.ffi 212
. Comftr@ 31& ,
GROMH FORECAST BY DISTRICTAND AOI
MrffiM.hffi
A\f!,
@ *! 11'
16 lar1s! lE r
l\.9
23 24
o c0itPAss
GIS Sh+e File ofAol's
TEfrcAnalrk Zons OA4
TAZ GlM Facbr pe AOI
Curcnt IGC C$6m.r Count Frrcl
ApttunulTAz GlM to lcc Cutumer Coum I
BASE CAS€ FOR€CAST GROWTH 8Y AFEA OT INTENEST
I
s ffi I l[ll ffiil mllisll
Pffi
.nd, .rM !rr@t .rp2 .r&3
2625
Total Hossehold lnarea'e torccart
IGC Sedl. Area
2017 IRP u 2019 IRP
1t,&a
27
RESIDENTIAL GROMH
Additlonal Customer Forecast
28
COMMERCIAL GROWH
29 30
N. OF STATE & CENTRALADA
AREAS OF INTEREST
iI!
CORE MARKET GROWTH
?
QUESTTONSI
31 32
20 t8 tRP
LARGE VOLUME CUSTOMER FORECAST
OAV]D SWENSON
MANAGER. ]NDUSTRIAL SERVICES
33 34
WHAT ISA LARGEVOLUME CUSTOMER?
r I 25 largest customers; approximately 55% of 20 I 7 sales
r Minimum 200,000 rherms per contract year requirement
r Mix of "lndustrial" and "Commercial" type
. Must elefi from 3 tariffs; LV- | Sales or T-3 or T-4 Transportation
. Minimum one year contract;the confact se6 the term and Maximum
Daily Firm Quantity (MDFQ) for firm peak day use
. Contracts are site specific; can combine on contiguous propefty
Annualized Actual LVTherms
Iu lllllll
CLASSIFICATION OF I25 LV CUSTOMERS
. By Rate Class:
*LV- l Sales *
*T-3 lnterruptible Transport -
*T-4 Firm Transport -
t Total -
#
2t
7
97
t25
t7%
O/o
78%
t00%
Therms
30%
60%
100%
35 36
SEGMENTATION OF I25 LV CUSTOMERS
. By Market"Segment"L
t7
t6
t8
5
3
24
33
il
t25
iv"
t3%
t4%
4%
t9%
9"/.
100"/.
Therms
.i. Potato Processors -
.i Other Food Processors -
.! Meat & Dairy -.ifu & Feed -
.i Chemical/Fertilizer -
.:. Manufacturing -
.:. lnsdtutional -
.i Other -
.l Total -
35%
t8%
l3%
t%
|%
6%
7%
9Z
t00%
LOCATION OF I25 LV CUSTOMERS
'BIAOI:
r. IFL -
.SVL -
.i. Central Ada -
*State Street -
*Canyon County -
.iAll Other -
l.Total -
#
22
4
3
3
72
7t
t25
,*
3%
2%
z%
t8%
s7%
t00%
Therms
23%
t%
t%
t%
t0%
64%
100%
37
39
-;
.J
t-'r
'}*';
-
h+HHF
38
40
ovERvtEw oF FoRECAST TEcHNIQUE
. Dont use statistics/regression techniques
. Use an "adiusted" historical usage approach
. Most not as weather sensitive as the Core
. Small population (not as many customers)
. Not as homogenous as Core (size, weather sensitivity)
. Forecast both therms use and CD (MDFQ/MDQ)
SURVEY SAYS
r Sent out I 2 I surveys in June{uly 20 I 8
r Provided last two year! of actual usage and Peak Day use and date
. Also requested other information from plant contacc or other external
information
tr Growth plans, conservation, ener$/ efficiency, other daE relating to changes
in usage, comments/suggestions
. 5l were returned
OVERVIEW OF FORECAST TECHNIQUE
. Adjusted historical data with survey information and other data
(e.9. EDOs) to develop three forecasts
. Assumed growth by specific customers except For
. Adjusted weather sensitive customer group by 110% for High
Growth and Low Growth scenarios
4t 42
AD.|USTMENTSTO HTSTORTCAL - 3 SCENARTOS
. Used recent trends to validate results
. Base Case, High Growth, Low Growth
SENDOUT STATISTICS
"Jft
43 44
LargeVolume Base Case Forecast (Therms)
a
Itrl H Il Il
idS
t20t9 12020 .2021 t2022 12023 .2024
45 46
LargeVolume High Growth Forecast (Therms)
r
g
ffillf; lll I llllll ilil......
t2ol9 12020 t702.1 .1021 .7013 .1074
BASE CASE SCENARIO
ASSUMPTIONS
. Starts with Base Case Forecast
. Natural gas prices competitive with other energy sources
r lncludes 5 new customers
r Mix of segments, mostlyT-4, assumed most in MagicValley and
western ldaho
r Starts with Base Case Forecast
r Natural gas prices remain comparatively low
r Assumes 9 new customers totaling 6.5 million therms by 2024
. Additions mostly inT:4; Meat & Dairy and Other Food
Processing; all growth in All Other
r Annualized growth rate of 1.8%
47 48
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
ASSUI.4PTIONS
r Starts with Base Case Forecast
t Assume gas prices become less competitive
. Economy slows
r Removed any customer having difficulty staying above the
200,000 therm annual minimum
r Two new LV-lcustomers
r Annualized growth rate of -l,.3%
LargeVolume Low Growth Forecast (Therms)
I
r rll ln r t*lofub clffiF i4@ &H
12019 .2020 t2021 12022 .2023 .2024
49 50
Large Volume Annual Therms
E
OPTIMIZATION MODELING
MDFQVSTHERM FORECAST
. Use MDFQ not therm forecast in optimization model
. Must provide MDFQ 365 daylyear
. Only firm customers in design peak; no interruptible
r Follows adjustments from therm changes
r lncludes new customer additions in High Growth Case
. Total LV Base Case compound growth rate of0.4%
51 52
QUESTTONSI
Base Case MDFQ by Segment
lllIlllIrI
Ej
r20tt.2020 .2021 .2022.2021 r2o2a
53 54
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
ASSUMPTIONS
l!l
aBd. C-. aHiAh G.odh aLor Gro*th
H
NON.TRADITIONAL RESOURCE PLANNING
RUSS NISHIUWA
MANAGER. ENGINEERING SERVIC
NON.TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCES
Potential to provide additional resources to meet
"peak day" design loads by decreasing demand
through alternative fuels or supplementing
resources
55 56
57 58
L
NON.TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCES
Researched six non-traditional supply resources
'1. Fuel Oil/Diesel
2. Coal
3. Wood Chips
4. Propane
5. Satellite/Portable LNG Equipment
6. Biomethane Production
NON-TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCE # I
FuelOil/Diesel
- lndustrial application
- Decreases LV load - 1 5k - 20k th/day per customer
- Three to five days of onsite storage
- Facilities equipment cost is - $200,000 - $500,000 plus
o&M
NON-TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCE #2
Coal
- lndustrial application
- Currently three firm LV customers with coal burning ability
- Could decrease LV load -50,000 - 1 50,000 th/day
-20 - 28 million Btu per ton
- Requires special permitting and additional equipment
NON.TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCE #3
Wood Chips
- lndustrial application
- One LV customer on IFL
- Decreases LV load - 6,000 - 8,000 th/day
- Typically stores a 2 month supply
- - I million Btu per ton (22 lbs/th)
- Wood supply and additional equipment required
59 60
NON-TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCE #4
Propane
- lndustrial application
- One gallon is - 92,000 Btu's
- Currently no existing customers
- Typically seven peak days of onsite storage
NON.TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCE #5
Satellite LNG
- lndustrial or distribution system application
- 150 - 650 psig delivery pressure
- Typical facility can send out 50k-90k th/day
- Equipment cost $2 - 5 million plus LNG
- Cost to lease is $250k - $350k per month
61
63
62
QUESTTONS?
64
r June 21,2019 - ldaho Fallr
. W€atherAnalysis Resuls
r Usate per Customer ResulB
. Energ Efllcien.y
. Load Duration CurYes
. Optimiation:ndEnhancements
1
NON.TRADITIONAL SUPPLY RESOURCE #5
Biomethane Production (RNG)
- Renewable fuel sourced from biomass material
- Growing industry with potential in southern ldaho due to
quantity of dairies and farm byproduct
- Potential supply of -1 0,000 to 50,000 th/day biogas
injection per site
- IGC currently has one RNG project approved
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
,/<>'\AffirruN'MrlOdmkd
. Comment Cards
. 20 I [e-mail]
. Please provide commens and
feedbackwithin l0days
65 66
ADDITIONAL MEETING
bbq.lddid
rslp@.E
INIEMUNIAX NC@MINTEGMIED RESOURCE PA
Economic Forecast
John Church
ldaho E@nomi6
Dsember 201 8
6
1.2
43
ISERrcUfrAN@@N
INTEGMTED RE$URCE PN
Where Are We Now?
&b. ISA xon4s tupbrdJlnurry 2G -&bk elt
E
Fs
9Ie
a
6 l{oilh
65
1
ldaho Economics Summer 2018 Economic Forecast
for the Stato of ldaho and the Counlies ln ldaho
Provides county by county projectiorc for wages,employment, population, and households
Uses national as a driver for those sectors of the ldahoeconomy with significant national economic exposute.
But, the forecast is also interactive with the localserving sectors of the ldaho economy.
Future populations are predicted using a cohortcomponent population forecasting model whichpredicts annual births, deaths, as well as population
an/out migration.
INTERMOUNTAIN G CSPANY
INTEGMTEDRESOURCE PN
for the State of ldaho and the Counoo3 ln ldaho
Future household growth, which is the key driver forfuture residential c-ustom6r growth is modeled as afunction of population (less those individuals in group
quarters), and general economic conditions in the
state.
ln summary, good or improving economic conditionswill speed up the rate of household growth, however
worsenino or declinino economic conditions will slow
the rate oT household Tormation and, in turn, slow the
rate of household growth,
IITER@ITA(@M
INTEGMTED RESURCE ,u IMER@MANSWNIMEGME RE$URCE FW
Economic Growth Scenarios
The Base Case Economic Forecast asaumes a normal
amount of economic fluctuation and normal businees
cycles it is the "best estimate" of future economic
activity in the State and it's forty four counties.
The High Growth Scenario assumes a more rapidly
growing economy - similar to the growth that ldaho
experienced in the 1990s.
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY
INT'GMTED RESOURCE PUN
Economic Growth Scenarios
The Low Growth Scenario assumes a period of slower
economic growth for the State of ldaho.
By definition, slower economic growth produces fewer
employment opportunities in the future. ln tum, this
scenario of slow economic performance affects the
rate of population growth by decreasing the rate of
population in-migration (or, at times, causing a
population out-migration) to ldaho, and thereby
slowing the rate of future household gtowth.
6
6
ldaho Economics 2018 Economic Forecast
6
leho hnuhdfig Empbrmd
Janu.ry 2005 - &bh 4tl
1
q
a
6
INTERMOUNTAIN S COMPN
The Economic Forecast
ln the 2018 - 2M0 Fore€st Period ldaho's Economy wlllexperlene:
An annual average Nonagricultural employment grcwth of 1.7% per y6r,
adding neady ,O0,500 jobs to the State s payrolls.
Population groMh aveEging 1.6% per y€r over the 2015 - 20a1, forccct
period with, by the year 2(N0, the Stateb populatioo ndrlng 2,559,$0 -a gain of close to 988,600 from the 2010 Census.
Plus, the additlon of nearly i146,000 new households in ldaho over the
2015 to 20iO period - an annual average incH* o, 1.96 por y6r wd
twenty five yeaB.6
7 8
9 10
2
The Economic Forecast
Nonagricultural employmeni in ldaho ls expected to lncrc by Hrly
336,200 in the 20't5 to 2040 perlod. But some industrlea wlll fare better
than othe6:
Agriculture is proiected to experience a 16 ot n€rly 12,000 iobgstatewide by the year 2040.
The Mining industry is expsted to galn a mod6t 800 addltloml iobg
statewide by the year 2040.
construction, Mlnlng, and Natural R€ourc6 pcts annual aveEge
employment galns ol 2.4oh pet year, posting a gain of nearly 3i1,800 ln the
State by the year 2040.
isE[xf#gti"tr^3$H
The Economic Forecast
Manufactlring employment in ldaho is predicted to incHse at ao
annual average rate of 0.3%per year over the 20 15 - 2M) perlod tor an
absolute gain of nearly 5,600 jobs from the 2015 mployment levels.
The Transportatlon, Whol6de and Retall TBde, and ths Utllltba
industriB are exp€cted to post annul aveEge mployment gdE of
0.8% per year over the 2015 to 2040 perlod produclng an abaolut€ gain
of close to 30,100 newjobs in the State.
Employment in the Finance, lnsuBn@, and R@l Estate lndGtrlg ls
expected to increase by 6,100 over the 2015 - 2(Xo potlod - an annEl
average increase of 0.6% per year.
6
INTEI@NTAN*MINEGUIED FESOURCE l,N
The Economic Forecast
The Sedice lndustries in ldaho a@ expected to be ths tGt€t grcwhg
in tems ot employment growth over the 2015 to 2(Nl, Poriod -
Employment ln the Protsiooal and Busins Soryl6 etegory b
forecasted to increa* by 76,200 over the 2015 - ZNO porlod - ao
annual average incrffie of 2.7% per year.
Edu€tion and Heatth sediG employment in the Stste 13fffid
to increase by 79,600 over the m15 - zlNO petlod - ar .noual ilmge
incrce of 2.,1% per y€r.
The Economic Forecast
ldaho employment in the Lelsure and Hcpitality lnduEtrl€ 13
forecasted to lncrease by nearly 30,300 over the 2015 - 2040 perlod -an annual average lncrease ot 1.5% per year. Lastly, employment in
the @tegory of Olher SeryiG is prolEted to inc@e by l,6lxl wq
the m15 - 20,10 period - an annual ayerage incl@ ot 0,6% per y€r.
ln total, ldaho Seruice lndustry Employment is prciected to lncm$
by 189,300 over the 2015 to 2040 period - 56.0of of ths ovenll
increase in Non-Ag employment in the State over the fol36t perlod.
Govemment employment is predicted to lnc@ at an annual
average rate ot 1.5% per year over the m15 - 2|(Nl, perlod f,'lth a tE{
gain of neady t1,300 iobs statewlde.
ITEllMfrAiNffiI&GM@REWrcEil
LI L2
6
6
13
3
INI€RMOUNTAIN * CdPNYINI€GMTEO REQURCE PW
The Economic Forecast
QUESTIONS ?
6
A INTERMOUNTAIN'
GAs COMPANY
A Subsidiary ot MDU Besources Group, lnc.
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN:
ENERGY EFFICIENCY. LOAD DEMAND CURVES, RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION &
SYSTEM ENHANCEMENTS
WELCOME
rGuest Safety & Comfort
rlntroductions
1 2
. Lori Blarner - Dir€doL Regulotot / Affots
. EricWood - Superyisor,Cos Suppl,l
. Russ NishikaE. PE. - Monoger, Engneering Setvkes
. KathyWold - iVonoger, Energy Effrciacy
. Cheryl lmlach - rVonoger, Energy Service
r Dave Swenson - il4onoger,lndusttiol Serykes
. RayceeWhite - Regulotory Anolyst
COMMITTEE MEMBERS
. John Chatburn - ldoho Ofi@ of Enery Resources
. Dre Allr€d - Northwd Pits./inewiltons
. RandyThomas-Arry't (tohe,
. Kit Kamo - Snoke Rirct konomk DelopmentAillorc.
. Tina Wilson - Wdern Allb6. Fot E@mk Dedophed
. Conni€ Sbph€r - Sourhern ldoho E@mn Dmbpilent Oryondtun (SE[DO)
. Eeb lneck .. Nompo Ec@omk Devebpnent
. MaE Hunter- Po(de,lolchubbucl Chmber of Cmnerc
r Scom R*se - flngfiom County Econmk Devdopndt
. Tereswhte - RED, of E6cm ldoho
. Stm FulE -. Coldmil Econonk Devebpment
. ldaho Public Udlides Commhsion Sefi
3 4
AGENDA
{-
{-
,a
,-
WekohqGu.it S.Gty & lntrcdu<tionr - lor &oEne/
lRPPuTo.e tori&dmer
Energ Eficienc, R?tultr - (afrywold
Lo.d Demmd Cude. - [.ic wood
Lun.h Pre.€.btion - &tu P.okop
Di*ribdlon SystGm Enh.n..m€ntu - fu$ Mshilowd
Supply Equal. Dem.nd - E.twood
5 6
. Natural Gas Local Distribution
Company
. Founded in 1950
. Served its fiEt customer in 1956
. Subsidiary of MDU Resources
Group
lntermountain Gas
Company
IRPTEAM
lntermountain Gas
Company
. 74 Communities Served
. Over 365,000 Customers
. Over 720 million therms
delivered in 2018
87
9
Demand Supply & Delivery Resources
R&C
Demand
t_,d
L0
AREAS OF INTEREST (AOI)
ffiD@c*e
' Disribution System Segmenc:
. Canyon Counry
. CentBlAda County Latenl
r North of Sb@ Street lateal
. SunValley latenl
. ldaho Falls L*eal
. All Other Customers
I
BENEFITS OFAN IRP
r Blueprint to meet the Company! firm customer demands over a five-year forecast
period based on various assumplions
. Prcvides frequent updates to the proieded groffih on the Companyt system
r Considers all available resources to meet lhe needs of the Company! customers on
a consistent and comparable basis
. Helps to ensure lnrcrmounEin Gas Company will conlinue to provide reliable
energy service while minimizing cosB
IRP OVERVIEW
r Five year plan, updated every two years
. Forecasts demand
r Reviews all available supply options
r Utilizes an optimization model to provide the most
efficient solutions
11.1.2
I
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
--<>\.
Ah$.ItffiNTArN tMmot A Odn (a.d
13
15
ENERGY EFFICIENCY RESULTS
MANACER ENERCY EFFICIENCY
1.4
Gas is good.Amen.
1.6
Rule of 3
. Efficient
. Reliable
.Clean
. Benefits of natural gas
. You want customers
to use less? (Yes and
no)H"'n
i,
. Potentiolly how much
less? Conservation
Potential Assessment
E
17 18
II rl
Natural Gas is
efficient
N.rud p c6B le$ b use d.n ode.
mior hom..nery $urc6. Householdsfrt u3e natuElF Tplbn(6 br hadn&kd hqdn& c@kn8 and .10$6 dryin8
sFnd il eE8€ of $874 l6s ts. F 6anhorc usinS ddc .plhce'
ne diR use of B@alS inAm€nc!
hom6.nd busine$6 achi# 9l Frc€nt
I
,
1.9
Natural gas is
. Efficient
. Reliable
. Clean
21.
Natural gas is
. Efficient
. Reliable
. Clean
20
22
I.* OJ$A -A',Hf, &f,E
=
As-'s.\4
52
al a
,: :::,
:?"
^rifrlE
Nrtuarl Gar
Elxrri<iry
Natural gas is reliable
. According to rhe U.S. Department of
Transporution, pipelines are the safest
form of energy transporotion.
. At current consumprion rates, the 28.7
Tcf of natural gas the U.S. produces
annually will lasr nearly I 00 years.
. Domestic 8as production accounr for
nearly 92 percent of all narural gas
consumed in the United Setes.
Natural gas is
clean loo 1*- Il
. Natural gas is the cleanest fossil
fuel on the market today.f CTE
Natuml gas emis up to 56% tkrdd,
fewer greenhouse gasses than coal
for the same amount of electricity. "l'
GlaTf
5l
Switching to natunl gs, emissions
from U.S. power planB hit a 27-
year low last summen
r* ?*A -l,lJ &$A
23 24
t rl
!
lll
kld6h!,EdffisS
2ir !lt
*J\"
ITM
beGhffiffi
Natural gas is
. Efficient
. Reliable
. Clean
25 26
wArT....YOU JUST
TOLD US ABOUT ALL
THIS NATURAL GAS
GOODNESS AND
NOWYOU WANT US
TO USE LESSI YES!
27 28
When we "acquire resources through the reduction of natural gas
consumption due to increases in efficiency of energy use,"...you save
money and energy!
Turn this' lnto this;-v
w =*w
And Monql Did I mendon pu sve monry?!
AI/AII.ABTE EOU IPMEIIT REBAIES
95% { Ut X.tur.l (i.r I uin.(.Srso
gota Eild.rty Cdbo R.di.ilsysfr sr,000
8lra AfUE il.tunl Gn fir.glxrhtcn S2oo
,0t( tE ,{.tuttl Gsi Fir.plnc Sloo
.67 Ef/.66 UtF N.rurlG{t S50
.91 tfl.9, uat Csdcntina srso
0 Energy
Efficiency
Demand Side Management (DSM) refere to
resources acquired tircugh the reducion of
natunl gas consumptjon due to increases in
efticiency of energy use.
29 30
i il
I
Elldble Aoollin.€'Rabeta
.*,il
F- -',
-i
l'
-tli 1d
WHOLE HOME REBATE $1200
ENERGY STAR certified home
(usin8 natural 8as for space and water heatinS)
ond
HERS (Home EnerSy Ratin8 System) lndex score
of 75 or lower75
b-b.ldt-Eff Ed ._. Y
*'"
:.r3
r
dd
HOW DOWE PROMOTE EFFICIENT
USE OF NATURAL GASI
3231
33
I tlfl or. Dotsd.l fiIdy bG u!.d?
I ,.@ rtds trduG bhE oa lqt&nry r!.1 SoilcME rnl & aw.r&66|.ry-Ernaillli @E$b @ darand rl#
D httryrtd$.n M3*&r*Ds.pffirirgb lmr@ wsqlanpl.nniqed Hpffir lq-lrm!6arobrffi..ddffil*frs14@ d.
uer.ha ffiBr6 m w @r @ntd
> ktm r[.car{, Morfr MdE rid trqFrh dt{|n(s*dqto(dlq
I }lryrlular Dot ntllldrdtrrtbc wcd?
> Pdhtld tudtr' ar! d hrcd t6 6E gafrs. hrwdpt aM fiera in Ffts,ff66. tur r.w th. ffiok dsalaryFaiffi, h alud&h
t k6!u*cl6.nd4tsr &ero[l tffit*&ffi @ean{uild
lblad {n. aB k$aEd, M r&r &.nr{Yitu t&!Sqnuls,rthat arinv&rrFftp,sDFad6
34
.^<>^.-
AHEE*lHHFrrArN'
Conservolion
Potenliol Assessment
Finol Results
CPA:
CONSERVATION
POTENTIAL
ASSESSMENT
WHAT IS IT?
Comprehensive analysis of all viable conservation/EE
measures and toul savings that could be achieved
Determines the most cost-effecive energy efficiency
measures
A rool for EE program planning
Provides energy savings inpus ino the IRP
FRSNTIERenergy
CONSiJIi NGYdunsk
gti,
35 36
E<-lfrE8c-r'1
f*{*lFffi"l
ffi
r
I
POIENTIAL ASSESSMENI
I tffi kffi . ,r$rth, hiahnas!. $s!r@ ol tta lod8{a,n !hp0
dfirhfty Flcn&l Sd 6 clmialh l€ru, (6l4tt&!, .nd rdd!ihqb .fdtry p€der
&e8#..6 u'@qk&$rs.ru*4!tffi&MrdldfM&H
@E(Mbsrruh
ffi ,apLr *.ltmk.o6l@ht lo ffi Ei
drdEl. |a$q sh ftilri tu frs{{ftldkFdon&Unlt(dt A{Sn
ffi^psat adUd6b(68*,dbBrut5t5 srsdr.l sBr lblfi k a(,#$tuih ft *& &{rh kd nudrh lBrd lo
[e-mail]
E{imated DsM Them Savirus
2017-2021 lntegraEd Resource Plan
rl
tRP 20t9-2023
cPA 2020-2074
What h+Fned b 20 I 9l
J '**il
37
Three Scendrios us€d to assss.chievable potential {102G20391
a w: appl€t bw fialntr FEb lllx ol rmrafiafiul
rc:sr: c6l. bd *i!, no budtlt (6rtninB .il oQ. .
b,* ratol 6ld.ctM 6aaru.s- !Moni!7in.d
budt6r
I hdrdl.hht*idffiFh.ffidt
r E{:w,13t.nd{d p.ot.D.9r.o.!h6. in(.oli6 in{,c.kd tobiitrr rlducri6 in16 - qBonirr.in.d todt.!
t hldhlahkdffiKrsh.*d*Mffid?
! khEs: &rkr.r.d*l{ Fqrrh dttury, ieh!to1l.dr rt 65'( u|Mrrr.ind ludl.!/fi.8u.6
t hir,*r&edr,lr.wffih.&M*WFa.ffi&@drsftr.rydffial
38
4039
Base Senario- cumulativ€ s€vin83
tt's
rlll
2020-2024
HVAC,
54&860
Envelope,
427,975
Hot Water,
358,849
RESIDENTIAL
AVERAGE
ANNUAL
SAVINGS BY
END.USE
flIu..l G$Stuorr - Cumsblr* 10:820?4
I
:
2
I
II
I
41 42
(
LOW
BASE
MAX
ilil.-.rl I
2020-2024
Kitchen,
93,490
HVAC,--,
614,950 Other,
L3,372
Hot Water,
61,655
COMMERCIAL
AVERAGE
ANNUAL
SAVINGS BY
END-USE
Bl
lxi,.*
l,
ll
TOP IO
RESIDENTIAL
MEASURES BASE
SCENARIO
43 44
M
;l--- i
ACHIEVABLE BASE SCENARIO - PORTFOLIO COST-
EFFECTIVENESS
45 46
ACHIEVABLE BASE SCENARIO _ PORTFOLIO BUDGET
AND UNIT COST
ComFdrcn d Gd Podolio kinF and Co.B
ii,ii
i
ln the first 5 years of
the study, Low and
Bae Scenarios savings
and unit cosc would
place IGC among
aveEte utilitis, with
savings BnSing
beween 0.4% and
0.6% of annual
volumel at unit cosc
around $3/tierm.
47 48
to24r014
W ttc
l7!llt
(.{',il,J, r,J . ., I0
for.l t.9?
2tt_
ls
Irt
Lll
15,
l.{l.al --{l13
ldr.r ISM)
!ln 16 I )s ,01 {6
lro I rrr
lzrrr tg
)17 t16
!-95 5.16 a.*t_59
TOP IO
COMMERCIAL
MEASURES BASE
SCENARIO
Comprd3on orGr Podolio kins and CorB
t
Under the Bae
Scenario, IGC could
evolve into one of the
leading utilities, while
mainaining iB unit
cosB at a redonable
level. ln order ro
accomplish this,
invesmeng and
susained grcwth in
the residential home
retrcfit market will be
critical.
QUESTTONSI
49 50
LOAD DEMAND CURVES
LOAD DEMAND CURVE KEYVARIABLES
. Based on Design Weather Conditions
. Low, Base and High Gromh Core Market Customer Prolections
. Cusromer Usage Per Degree Day
. MDFQ for Large Volume Customers
51 52
LOAD DEMAND CURVE
r Load Demand Curve: A forecast of Daily Gas Demand UsinS 'Desi8n' Temperatures,
and Predetermined'Usage Per Customer'
r Designed to Measure Distribution Capacity at Our 5 Areas of lnterest (AOls)
. To MeasureToEl Company for Upstream Capacity
LOAD DEMAND CURVE
. Based on Current Resources or Resources Scheduled to be Available During the IRP
Period
. Remedies for Any ConstrainB Will be ldentified Later
. Storage Management
53 54
ERICWOOD
SUPERVISOR. GAS SUPPTY
PEAK SEASON CORE MARKET LOAD DEMAND CURVE
METHODOLOGY
;Forecased Core Cu$ome6
-t+
Tobl Dai,I Usage
Total Daily Usage
20lttdC6@ry Lo.d rmsdCu'{
Daatn Br. C&
IGC *ni..AE.
aft*r**.e
5655
202lTor:l Compry Lod Oemend curv.O6ian Ba*Ca*
IGC 5€rvi.€4re.
6
dCr$PSfdrrff,
57
6
dde$P*fdrr*lF
DESIGN
CAPACITY OF
DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM
. SunValley Latenl
. Canyon County Latenl
r Sare Street Lateml
. Centml Ada Counry
58
g*rr?df+{f*rrg
L
59 60
MDfQ
D€gree Day
2019 lo.d O.rond Cuil.
6
,$aPr*rlr
61.
63
20 I t Ldd tu'Eil Cud.
sat. Ste. b..al
3
4€fP.fa.l rr**.
#SfFaSas<$*fe
62
6
6d*rT?fr*rrr**,
5
64
1o2t kd o.mdco4
56..stEd kt d
4d**.*tdriP.,,
1.
65 66
vrarrfarlr
4d*r$aN'a*rfPJr.ddde{daff+rrnp,ga
67 68
QUESTTONS?IRP MODEL STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
Drofr Design Eose Results
OR6 PRO(OP
BORISMNRICS
69 70
L
. IGC IRP ildd "lntegates"/Coodinates .ll the mdn tun.tional el€ments of IGC oPcrationl
. Gas Demadd/Load, how much & where is rs consumed, Lord Dundon Cune" (LDC) b/ area(node).
. Gil supph from where (arernode), how mu(h and what pri.e is 8s suPplied to meet dem.nd (LDC).
. Gas Tanspoc how does s move frcm supply node/area to demand(node/area) dren pipeline(arc) size
. Demand side Manacement (DSfl) , cost efiective energ effici€ncy t used to redu.e demand
. LocalGasDistriburion.locallat€mlsizingis€xpliclrlymodeledtomeetdemand&ens!rereliabilitl
t lhe IRP mod€l utilizes"opdmiz.tion modeling" to de@rmine the least tost manner to have load! serred
by supplxtnnspoEDSM & latenls.
All results oresented herc arc daft subi.d to IGC miew.
!@metrlcs
WHAT IS OPTIMIZATIONI
. IGC IRP model ulilizes"optimiation"
. Utilizes a soadord mathemagcal technique called"linear protEmming" ...to optimize over
all possible combinations.
r Udlizes software "LlNGO" protmmmint lantuate samilar to linear alSebE. (ie a\>=b)
. Excel for input and output so easy to use
. Massive amoun! of conlrol and output by period by resource
t Selecs from a mix of resources over planninS horizon to meet forecasted loads
. Pordand Geneml,Avis6 has used similar lechniques by Borismelrics for resource planning &
dispatch
7L 72
a
ffimetrlcr
LINEAR PROGRAMMING
. MathematicalTechnique developed postWW2
. Mo5t used Opeations Research Technique (PCs) to optimize
. Way of allootinS scarce resources to competing aeivities in best possible my (common in
rRP)
. WasAl beforeAl
. Finds best solution across all combinations. Find leas co$ oveEll inpuB.
. Udlizes a "Gap Analysis" (Fill variables) rc detect need for new resources: lateml, tnnsporL
supply
!@merrbs
r FunctionalcomponenB:
. Demand forecast (LDCs)
. Tmditional supply resources
r Existing and porential g6 supplies by basin
. Stonge resources
. Transporotion capacity resources
. Price forecast
. Non-traditional supply e.8., new distribution capacity, fuel oil, DSM etc.
!l@metrres
73
75
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Arcs(lansport) &
Nodes(Supply/Demand Areas
ro ldaho (ll',lc))
EC M.io.3urh & TE6Fd b lffi
[!$merrrct
MODEL
STRUCTURE
Arcs lTnnsport) &
Nodes(S!pply/Demand Areas
.o Latenh frcm (ll''lc))
[!@metrtc:
74
76
L
MODEL ELEMENTS
I Demand represented by Load Duration Curves
r Loads forecast by demand node
. Demand curves ordered by hithest to |owest into LDCs
r LDCs summarized into I 2 periods that are distinct but daily usage is similar
. Demand Scenarios by weather (Design/Normal) & Gromh (Low Base, High)
. Strucure used nodes md a6
. Supply/demand at node$ mnsport at arcs
[@*ur.t
77 78
MODEL ELEMENTS
&t&.1!tlsrrc
DRAFT MODEL
RESULTS .
LATERALS
'Ft*tE
79 80
DRAFT MODEL RESULT GENERAL SUPPLY BALANCE
SUMMARY
[![-ct,ro
81 82
QUESTTONSI DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENTS
L
. Employs Utility Standard Pmctice MethodTo Optimize System
. Models DSM & Storage
. Handles storage withdrawal and injection across seasons
r Provides a check on need for lateral expansion.
. Provides a check on transport and supply capacity
t Convenient excel spreadsheet input/output
!@mue
83 84
DRAFT
MODEL
LATERAL
RESULT
RUSS NISHIKAWA. PE,
MANAGER, ENGINEERING SERVICES
SUMMARY
FUTURE SYSTEM CAPACITY ENHANCEMENTS
rCanyon CountyArea
r Sun Valley Lateral
r Central Ada County
rState Street Lateral
rldaho Falls Lateral
CANYON COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENTS
r 6" Orchard Avenue Extension
. 12" Ustick Caldwell Betterment Phase ll
r 8" HappyValley Extension
8685
87
CANYON COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENTS
12" Ustick Caldwell Betterment Phase ll
r Construction to be completed Fall of 202 I
. 2 miles of 12" steel pipe
t 8% capacity increase to the overall system
r
l r-1 {
-t
'1 r
88
CANYON COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENTS
5" Orchard Avenue Extension
r Construction to be completed Fall of 2020
r 4.5 miles of 6" steel pipe
r Location specific betterment to meet growth demands in
southern Caldwell
12" ftFline -t
: . r;.:-''
,rS
f
i
l
t
89 90
:i
;)i
f,i'
t,
CANYON COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENTS
8" HappyValley Extension
r Construction completed Fall of 2022
r 2 miles of 8" steel pipe
r Location specific betterment to meet growth demands in
southern Nampa
Il
91
93
92
SUN VALLEY LA]ERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
Previously lnstalled the Jerome Compressor Station
r Constructed in 201 I
r 6 miles north of Jerome
. I 5% capacit), increase
94
SUNVALLEY
LATERAL
CAPACITY
ENHANCEMENT
t
SUN VALLEY LATERAL CAPACITY
ENHANCEMENT
r Lateral extends from Jerome
to Bellevue
r Jerome Compressor Station
r 68 miles of 8" pipeline
95 96
i i'1
I';i,
SUNVALLEY
LATERAL
CAPACITY
ENHANCEMENT
SUN VALLEY LATERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
Shoshone Compressor Station
r Construction to be completed Fall of 2021
r lnstalled near mile post 32
r I 0% capacity increase for the existing system
9897
99
CENTRALADA COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
Previously Completed the 8" Cloverdale Betterment
r Construction in 2018
r 3 miles of 8" pipeline
t 12% capacity increase
CENTRAL
ADA
COUNTY
.\a,ti\
100
t
SUN VALLEY LATERAL CAPACITY
ENHANCEMENT
Shoshone Compressor
r Preliminary design:
r 1,400 RPM (high speed)
r I,100 HP
r single stage
CENTRAL ADA COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
The Cloverdale Befterment is
a piece of the larSer picure to
inlegmte dislribution systemsbeueen Nampa, Meridian and
Boise
..*i
,,!t
101 1.02
e
II
J
CENTRALADA COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
I 0" Victory Retest - Phase I
r Construction in 2021
r Retest 2.5 miles of 10" pipeline
. 5% capacity increase
103 104
STATE STREEL LATERAL
i .t' 'il&
,.,.s...=
li=
)
105 106
12" Retest-Phase ll
. Work to be completed in 2022
r Rerest 3 miles of 12" pipeline
. 5-6% capacity increase
1
H+o-.+-,tr 'f
CENTRAL ADA COUNTY CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT !r-
the process of
inteSmtion, increases
capacity, and increases
pressure into Boise IPS
STATE STREET LATERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
Currently Completing the 12" Retest-Phase I
r Work complete in Fall 201 9
. Retest 6.6 miles of 12" pipeline
.9% capacity increase
(chonge from previous IRP due to model dynomics)
t
STATE STREET LATERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
1.07 108
STATE STREET TATERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
II!
i.
STATE STREET LAI-ERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT IDAHO FALLS LATERAL CAPACITY
ENHANCEMENT
rBegins in Pocatello
r Ends in St.Anthony
r 104 miles (not including toop tines)
!,l-
*.,.
-\ /_
tl
109
IDAHO FALLS LATERAL CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
Rexburg LNG Facility Storage Expansion
. lnstall second cryogenic storage tank
r Work to be completed in 2022
t 6% capacity increase
1.1.1.
QUESTIONS?
IDAHO FALLS
LATERAL
CAPACITY
ENHANCEMENT
110
112
SUPPLY EQUALS DEMAND
ERTCWOOD
SUPERVISOR, GA SUPPLT
L
113 1.14
J
L,i1r
SUPPLY = DEMAND
t Review Post Betterment Proiects
. Ensure that Supply Equals Demand
115
t02l !d e':radcun
6€fr$ada.rlr**1
117
202, foad Oem..dCurv.
a
odiCfr$adr.{ttPjp4
6
dddts.dfdff*,
6
lSfr$€t'fdtrffa
1.16
118
6
diC*|}Pdf*rt,Pfr
2
119 1.20
2o2l Lo.d o.m.ndc{n€
6i*i?dtdrr**a
2O2l fdd O.ilrndCu.Y.
1.22
#;drvraJfdrr*'ea
12L
202, Lod O.mrndcorv.
Ai*rrarrdrr**.
123
drdfrFdrFf*lrr**,
L24
Supply & Delivery Resources
t-f d
2
125 126
I
QUESTIONSI
1.27 128
FEEDBACK SUBMISSIONS
,^<>,\Affim**hmsitOd6(r,d
. Comment Cards
. 20 I [e-mail]
. Please prcvide commens and
feedback within l0 days
2