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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20161216Rogers Direct with Exhibit 107.pdfBEFORE THE n::c r:J''ED f ,. t ... ..r I, ... 'y IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMIS;Sld_N Cl/f'\1.Q ,_ 10 11 . 1 •.. ··-" , .. ,1 11-.;0 . I IN THE MATTER OF INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY'S APPLICATION TO CHANGE ITS RATES AND CHARGES FOR NATURAL GAS SERVICE. ) ) CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 ) ) ) ___________ ) DIRECT TESTIMONY OF MARK ROGERS IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION DECEMBER 16, 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Q. Please state your name and business address for the record. A. My name is Mark Rogers. My business address is 472 West Washington Street, Boise, Idaho. Q. A. By whom are you employed and in what capacity? I am employed by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission as a Utilities Analyst in the Utilities Division where my primary role has been developing and reviewing utility rate design, cost of service studies, tariff modifications, integrated resource planning, multi-state allocation and emerging utility issues. Q. What is your educational and professional background? A. I graduated from the University of Idaho with a Bachelor of Science degree in biological systems engineering. I hold a Master's of Environmental Science with an emphasis in ecosystems and biodiversity from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala, Sweden. I also hold a Master's of Environmental Science with an emphasis in water resource engineering from the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences Vienna, Austria. Furthermore, I have graduated with a Master's in Business Administration from Boise State University. I have worked previously as an analyst for the International Water Association in the Specialist CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Group for Statistics and Economics, where I have published statistical data on international water services. I have been employed as a utilities analyst with the Commission since July 2015, have attended the New Mexico State University Center for Public Utilities' course in Practical Regulatory Training, and serve on Avista's Technical Advisory Committee. Q. A. What is the purpose of your testimony? I will provide Commission Staff's position on Intermountain Gas Company's ("Intermountain Gas"; "Company") DCF return on equity. Q. A. Can you please summarize your testimony? Of course. In my testimony, I will address the Company's proposed return on equity. I will outline the Company's methodology of using a Basic Discounted Cash Flow ("DCF") to determine the return on equity. With regards to this, I will address the need to include a Blended DCF methodology with a Basic DCF to derive a more reasonable, and long-term oriented return on equity. Furthermore, I will outline a controversy in the Company's flotation calculation used in both DCF methodologies. I will provide recalculated results of the DCF analyses and conclude with a summary. Q. Please describe the standards for determining a fair and reasonable rate of return. CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 A. Absolutely. The legal test of a fair rate of return for a utility company was established in the Bluefield Water Works decision of the United States Supreme Court and is repeated specifically in Hope Natural Gas. In Bluefield Water Works and Improvement Co. v. West Virginia Public Service Commission, 262 U.S. 679, 692, 43 S.Ct. 675, 67 L.Ed 1176 (1923), the Supreme Court stated: A public utility is entitled to such rates as will permit it to earn a return on the value of the property which it employs for the convenience of the public equal to that generally being made at the same time and in the same general part of the country on investments in other business undertakings which are attended by corresponding risks and uncertainties; but it has no constitutional right to profits such as are realized or anticipated in highly profitable enterprises or speculative ventures. The return should be reasonably sufficient to assure confidence in the financial soundness of the utility and should be adequate, under efficient and economical management, to maintain and support its credit and enable it to raise the money necessary for the proper discharge of its public duties. A rate of return may be reasonable at one time and become too high or too low by changes affecting opportunities for investment, the money market and business conditions generally. The Court refined these guidelines in Federal Power Commission v. Hope Natural Gas Company, 320 U.S. 591, 603, 64 S.Ct. 281, 88 L.Ed. 333, 345 (1944): CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 From the investor or company point of view it is important that there be enough revenue not only for operating expenses but also for the capital costs for the business. These include service on the debt and dividends on the stock. (Citation omitted) By that standard the return to the equity owner should be commensurate with returns on investments in other enterprises having corresponding risks. That return, moreover, should be sufficient to assure confidence in the financial integrity of the enterprise, so as to maintain its credit and to attract capital. The Idaho Supreme Court has adopted these rate of return guidelines. See Application of Citizens Utilities Co., 112 Idaho 1061, 1067, 739 P.2d 360, 366 (1987 (Bluefield and Hope clarify "that the primary objective in ratemaking is t o allow the utilit y to meet its legitimate operating expenses, as well as to pay creditors, prov ide dividends to shareholders, and maintain its financial integrity so that it might attract new capital"). As a result of these United States and Idaho Supreme Court decisions, three standards have evolved for determining a fair and reasonable rate of return: ( 1) The Financial Integrity or Credit Maintenance Standard; (2) The Capital Attraction Standard; and, (3) The Comparable Earning Standard. If the Comparable Earnings Standard is met, the Financial Integrity or Credit Maintenance Standard, and the Capital Attraction Standard will also be met, as they are an integral part of the Comparable Earnings Standard. CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12 /16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Q. Please describe the Comparable Earnings Standard and how the cost of equity is determined using this approach? A. The Comparable Earnings Standard for determining the cost of equity is based upon the premise that a given investment should earn its opportunity costs. In competitive markets, if the return earned by a firm is not equal to the return being earned on other investments of similar risk, the flow of funds will be toward those investments earning the higher returns. Therefore, for a utility to be competitive in financial markets, it should be allowed to earn a return on equity equal to the average return earned by other firms of similar risk. The Comparable Earnings approach is supported by the Bluefield Water Works and Hope Natural Gas decisions as a basis for determining those average returns. Q. Has the Comparable Earnings Standard been considered in the testimony and analyses conducted by Mr. Gaske and yourself? A. Yes, it has. As Intermountain Gas is a subsidiary of the Montana-Dakota Utilities Resource Group ("MDU"), it trades no common stock. Due to this parent/subsidiary relationship, there is no direct equity market data available for utility operations at CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Intermountain Gas. Consequently, Mr . Gaske and I have both used a discounted cash flow methodology that meets the Comparable Earnings Standard by using a proxy group of similar companies to determine Intermountain Gas's return on equity. In fact, both the recommendations from Mr . Gaske and myself include return on equity rates greater than 8.42%, which is the average return on equity for the companies in the proxy group. Thus, not only has the Comparable Earnings Standard been met, but our recommendations both exceed the standard of the test. As a result, the legal standard for setting the rate of return on common equity has also been satisfied. Q. Let's turn our attention to the discounted cash flow methodology. method. Please explain the basis for the DCF A. The DCF method is based upon the theory that (1) stocks are bought for the income they provide (i.e., both dividends and gains from the sale of the stock), and (2) the market price of stocks equals the discounted value of all future incomes. The discount rate, or cost of equity, equates the present value of the stream of income to the current market price of the stock. The formula to accomplish this goal is: CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Equation No. 1-1 Po = PV = - - - - - -+ - - - - - - + ... + - - - - - - + -- - - - - ( l+Ks) 1 ( l+Ks ) 2 ( l+Ks ) N { l+Ks) N Where: Po = Current Price D = Dividend Ks= Capitalization Rate, Discount Rate, or Required Rate of Return N = Latest Year Considered The pattern of the future income stream is the key factor that must be estimated in this approach. Some simplifying assumptions for ratemaking purposes can be made without sacrificing the validity of the results. Two such assumptions are: (1) the dividends per share grow at a constant rate in perpetuity and (2) prices track earnings. These assumptions lead to the simplified traditional DCF formula, where the required return is the dividend yield plus the growth rate (g) D Ks = - - - - -+ g Po Equation No. 1-2 Q. Is this traditional DCF formula the same formula presented by Mr. Gaske in his testimony? CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 A. No. But it is the basis for the formula used by Mr. Gaske in his testimony. The traditional DCF formula assumes that dividends are paid annually, and that they increase once a year starting one year from the present. In both practice and theory, however, this assumption is incorrect. Rather, most companies, including utilities, tend to pay dividends on a quarterly basis instead of an annual basis. To reflect this concept, Mr. Gaske modified the traditional DCF formula to approximate the timing of dividend payments on a quarterly basis. Thus the DCF model presented in his testimony is: Q. Equation No. 1-3 Do (l+.0625g) K = -------------+ g p Is it acceptable to apply this adjusted formula for the DCF model when calculating Intermountain Gas's return on equity in this proceeding? A. Yes. While there are many forms of the DCF model, modifying it to account for quarterly dividend payments is acceptable in this case. Specifically, the Comparable Earnings Standard described a fair and reasonable rate of return equal to the return being earned on other investments of similar risk. Since all CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 but one company in the proxy group issues quarterly dividends, it is acceptable in this proceeding to modify the formula to account for the timing of these payments. Q. Please describe the growth rate in terms of the traditional DCF? A. Of course. The growth rate utilized by Mr. Gaske in the Basic DCF is simply the growth estimates for each of the companies in the proxy group from analysts at both Zacks Investment Research and Thomson First Call. The values from both analysts are averaged together to determine the growth rate for each of the proxy companies. Intermountain Gas's return on equity will be compared to this growth rate. Q. Are there any negative consequences associated with using such an approach? A. Yes, specifically when relying solely on this approach. While Zacks Investment Research and Thomson First Call are two respected firms, the bottom line is that the growth rates used in the analysis rely on estimates that are subjective to the skill of the analysts developing them. As Mr. Gaske states in his testimony, the Basic DCF analysis assumes that the analysts' earnings growth forecasts incorporate all information required to estimate a long-term expected growth rate for a company. CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 See Gaske Direct at 20. This ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 argument in itself would lead one to ask, "what is all information required to estimate a long-term growth rate?" The answer to this is subjective based on what the analyst deems to be important enough to include. In this regard, each analyst would separately estimate the future growth rate based on their own opinion of what information should be included in the estimate. This produces a model that has three outcomes: (1) both analysts predict the correct growth rate; (2) one analyst predicts the correct growth rate; or (3) neither analyst predicts the correct growth rate. Unless, by chance, both analysts have correctly predicted the actual growth rate, then the model will inevitably be based on incorrect estimates and incomplete information. In terms of the proxy group of companies, the estimates from both analysts vary by up to 20%. In this capacity, that model is inherently flawed and will be based to some degree on incorrect estimates. Such implications are concerning when this method is used as the sole basis for calculating a return on equity within a DCF model. Q. Are there other forms of the DCF model that are acceptable to use as well? A. Yes, there are. One such model, as described by Mr. Gaske, is a Blended DCF model that incorporates growth as presented in the traditional DCF, while CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 incorporating a long-term retention rate . Q. Does the Blended methodology remove the subjectivity inherent in the Basic DCF model? A. The Blended methodology does not completely remove the subjectivity because half of the Blended DCF model is based on the Basic DCF. However, by incorporating the retention rate to the model, the subjectivity is greatly reduced. Q. Please explain how the retention rate works within the DCF model. A. The retention rate is described as the percentage of earnings retained by the Company, used for future investments. The remaining portion of earnings is paid out as dividends to shareholders. If a company is expected to retain a portion of its earnings (b), and expects to earn a return on common equity (r), then its earnings, dividends, book value and market price would be expected to grow at the rate of (b*r). From this, we can derive a new DCF model by replacing the growth rate with the Company's expected return on equity times its retention rate: CASE NO . INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 Equation No. 1-4 D Ks = - - - - -+ ( b * r) Po ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Q. Is this the formula used by the Company in the Blended DCF model? A. To an extent, yes. This formula represents a variation of the traditional DCF using the Company's return on equity and retention rate. However, as the Blended methodology uses both the retention rate and the growth estimates from the analysts at Zacks Investment Research and Thomson First Call, this formula is combined with the Basic DCF formula, before being modified to incorporate the quarterly dividend payment. Thus the final formula for the Blended DCF methodology that the Company uses is: Equation No. 1-5 Do (l+.0625g) (g +(r*b)) K = + ------------- p 2 Where the growth rate and retention rate are averaged together to form the blend of the two methodologies. Q. What advantages does the Blended DCF model have over the Basic DCF model? A. As previously described, the subjectivity of the estimates used for the growth rate is reduced to half of the level of the Basic DCF. Moreover, the blended methodology is not based on the subjectivity of analysts, but rather on the earnings and dividends associated with CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 each company. While Mr. Gaske used forward looking values for these variables in his model, the subjectivity of such numbers are substantially less than an analysts forecasts, and much more predictable. Take for example the annual dividend payment from MDU Resources from 2000 to 2015, as shown in the following graph: .$0 80 .$0 7S ~ $0.70 "" .s:::. V, ,_ <1) 0.. -C: <1) E > "' 0.. -0 C: <IJ -0 ·;:; S0.6S $0.GO $0.45 0 $0.40 $0.3!) $0.30 1998 MDU Resources -Annual Dividend Payment 2000 -2015 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Vear ~­,, .. ~·· y ::: 0.0249x --19..374 H": 0.9906 2010 2012 2014 .. ··· 2016 It is evident that dividend payments have been steadily rising for MDU Resources over the past ten years. The regression model, and R2 value of 0.99 shows a near perfect linear trend in dividend growth, making future predictions on dividend payments for MDU resources quite accurate. Rather than relying on the opinions of analysts, using this type of data from the proxy group of companies more accurately measures the proxy group's future growth and the comparable return for Intermountain CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 ------------------------------------------------- Gas. Q. Are there any other advantages to utilizing the Blended DCF model? A. Yes. Beyond having more verifiable and accurate estimates for growth, the Blended DCF model is also better for estimating long-term growth. That is, the Value Line forecasts used by both Mr. Gaske and myself estimate the proxy group's retention rate from 2019 -2021. This approach calculates a more sustainable growth rate that better reflects the workings of Intermountain Gas. Mr. Gaske himself describes the benefits of this approach: Since these retention rates are projected to occur several years in the future, they should be indicative of a normal expectation for a primary underlying determinant of growth that would be sustainable indefinitely beyond the period covered by analysts' forecasts. Gaske Direct at 23. Given that Intermountain Gas has not filed a general rate case in decades, using a sustainable long­ term growth rate more accurately reflects the reality of Intermountain Gas in that the new rate of return may also be in effect for many years. Thus, the Blended DCF model is of primary importance if Intermountain Gas does not file another general rate case in the near future, as the Company's return on equity will not be solely based off CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 of growth estimates from 3 rd party analysts, but rather as Mr. Gaske describes, a "cruising speed" that companies can be expected to maintain indefinitely. Furthermore, Mr. Gaske states that: The primary determinants of growth for the proxy companies will be (i) their ability to find and develop profitable opportunities; (ii) their ability to generate profits that can be reinvested in order to sustain growth; and, (iii) their willingness and inclination to reinvest available profits. Expected future retention rates provide a general measure of these determinants of expected growth, particularly items (ii) and (iii). Gaske Direct at 22. He continues by pointing out that the level of earnings and proportion of earnings retained by the Company is the primary driver in the rate of growth in a firm's book value per share. As previously stated in my testimony, stocks are bought for the income they provide, both gains from dividends and from the eventual sale of the stock. Therefore, if retention rates are the primary driver of dividends and the firm's book value per share, and stocks are bought for both their dividends and future value, then it is only logical that the primary driver of both be used to develop the return on equity. Q. So you recommend an approach that incorporates retention rates through the blended methodology? CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 A. Absolutely. Incorporating a Blended DCF in the analysis more adequately reflects the long-term nature of Intermountain Gas's rate filings, reduces the impact of the subjectivity and dependence of the 3rd party analysts in the Basic DCF model, and reflects the fact that retention rates are the primary driver of dividend growth and the book value per share, which are the two primary variables for attracting common equity investors. Q. Alright then let us move on. You stated in the summary of your testimony that you would discuss the flotation adjustment used by the Company. Can you please explain what a flotation cost adjustment is? A. Of course. When a publicly traded company issues securities in the form of stocks or bonds, the Company incurs expenses in many forms including, but not limited to, legal fees, underwriting fees, banking and/or registration fees. The difference between the cost of equity before issuance, and the cost of the new equity is termed the flotation cost. In essence, when new securities are issued, the existing shareholders' investments will become diluted . To mitigate this, flotation cost allowances are applied to the dividend yield component of the DCF model in order to compute a fair return on common equity. CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Q. Is the flotation adjustment necessary in this case even though Intermountain Gas does not issue common equity? A. While Intermountain Gas does not issue common equity directly, it is issued by MDU. So using a flotation cost is still acceptable. It also serves to meet the legal obligation to satisfy the Comparable Earnings Standard of the proxy group of companies. However, the method the Company has used to incorporate the flotation cost into both DCF models is controversial, and does not follow the conventional methodology. Q. Can you please explain the flotation calculation? A. Absolutely. As previously described in Equation No. 1-3, the traditional approach to the DCF model describes the investor's required rate of return on equity capital as: Equation No. 1-6 D Ks =------+ g P o If Po is the proceeds per share actually received by the Company from which dividends and earnings will be generated, that is, if P o equals Bo or the book value per CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 share, then the companies required return is: Equation No. 1-7 D r = -----+ g Bo The flotation cost percentage (f), and proceeds per share Bo are related to market price Po as follows: Equation No. 1-8 P ( 1-f) = Bo By substituting Equation No. 1-8 into 1-7, we obtain the following formula, which is the required return adjusted for flotation: Equation No. 1-9 D r = -------+ g P (1-f) This equation is the standard equation for flotation cost adjustments and is referred to as the "conventional" approach. Its use in regulatory proceedings is widespread, and the formula is outlined in several corporate finance textbooks. Q. Can you please provide an example of how this computation is used? A. Yes. Assume a hypothetical widget company CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 needs to raise $100 million in common stock at $20 a share to finance future capital expenditures. If the underwriting and legal expenses are 4%, and the company expects to pay out $1 in dividends per share, with a future growth of 4.25%, then the above equation can be used to calculate the new cost of equity as follows: $1 r = -------------+ .0425 $20(1-.04) = .0945 or 9.45% Had the company not issued new stock, the flotation component would not be taken into account, and the company's cost of equity would have simply been ($1/($20*(1-0%)) + 4.25% = 9.25%. Q. How has Intermountain Gas applied the flotation adjustment formula in this case? A. Flotation costs compensate for the decrease in proceeds due to expenses associated with issuing stock. Therefore, it is an adjustment to the stock price. When looking at Equation No. 1-9 above, it can be seen that the flotation adjustment needs to be applied only to the dividend yield component of the formula, and not the growth component. In his testimony, Mr. Gaske has applied the flotation adjustment not just to the dividend yield component of the formula, but to the entire DCF model. CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 By doing so, the general theory underlying the flotation adjustment is ignored, and the return on equity is artificially inflated. Q. Can you provide an example of how this inflates the return on equity? A. Yes. Take our previous example of the widget company where we calculated the cost of new equity at 9.45%. If we apply the flotation adjustment to the entire DCF, we would obtain the following cost of new equity: r = $1 -----+ .0425) * 1.04 $20 = .0962 or 9.62% Applying the flotation adjustment to the growth component of the formula has increased the return on equity from the previous calculation of 9.45%, to a rate of 9.62%. Similarly, Mr. Gaske's use of the flotation adjustment formula artificially inflates the return on equity by applying the flotation adjustment to the entire DCF model. Q. So what do you recommend in terms of the overall methodology used to calculate the return on equity? A. I recommend incorporating a Blended DCF with the Basic DCF to more adequately reflect the long-term CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) STAFF 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 nature of Intermountain Gas' rate filings, to reduce the impact of the subjectivity and dependence of the 3rd party analysts in the Basic DCF model, and to reflect the fact that retention rates are the primary driver of dividend growth and the book value per share, which are the two primary variables for attracting common equity investors. Furthermore, I recommend applying the flotation adjustment only to the dividend yield portion of the DCF, which is the widely accepted conventional approach to incorporating a flotation adjustment to a DCF. Q. Do you have any exhibits attached to your testimony regarding the recalculated DCF's using the appropriate calculation of the flotation adjustment? A. Yes, Exhibit No. 107 shows the recalculated DCF results for both the Basic DCF and Blended DCF, with the conventional flotation adjustment applied only to the dividend yield portion of the DCF. Q. A. Does this conclude your testimony? Yes, it does. CASE NO. INT-G-16-02 12/16/16 ROGERS, M. (Di) 21 STAFF Company Atmos Energy Corporation Spire, Inc. New Jersey Resources Corporation Northwest Natural Gas Company South Jersey Industries, Inc. Southwest Gas Corporation WGL Holdings, Inc. High 3rd Quartile 2°d Quartile (Median) 151 Quartile Low i::33:'.lltTl --. ~ >< ~ ;:,o ~ :!. Revised Company Proposal ::::o'5 z g: 0\ ~ 9 z ·"' z 9 '"OCl'.l-,-~s.o ~~0--.J I --0 0\ ...., b N N Intermountain Gas Company Selected Natural Gas Distribution Companies Staff Revised Basic DCF Calculation Ticker ATO SR NJR NWN SJI swx WGL Dividend Yield 2.44% 3.11 % 2.80% 3.62% 4.12% 2.72% 2.85% 4.12% 3.36% 2.85% 2.76% 2.44% Flotation Cost Adjustment 1.0400 1.0400 1.0400 1.0400 1.0400 1.0400 1.0400 Dividend Yield x (1 + 0.625g) 2.64% 3.32% 3.03% 3.86% 4.44% 2.91% 3.10% 4.44% 3.59% 3.10% 2.97% 2.64% Primary Market: Expected Growth I Cost of Capital Rate (g) 6.50% 9.14% 4.56% 7.88% 6.50% 9.53% 4.00% 7.86% 6.00% 10.44% 4.50% 7.41% 7.65% 10.75% 7.65% 10.75% 6.50% 9.99% 6.00% 9.14% 4.53% 7.87% 4.00% 7.41% 9.56% -3:ntr1 ~. ~ & ;;: ;;<:HI> CT :::::~ z ;::.· 0\ ~ !=) z rJ} -0 -z. '1:,Cll -l - i::i;i s I 0 (JQ ....., C) -.J (1> -+i ' N - 0 9' ....., 0 N N Company Atmos Energy Corporation Spire, Inc. New Jersey Resources Corporation Northwest Natural Gas Company South Jersey Industries, Inc. Southwest Gas Corporation WGL Holdings, Inc. High 3rd Quartile 2°d Quartile (Median)* 1st Quartile Low Intermountain Gas Company Selected Natural Gas Distribution Companies Staff Revised Blended Growth Rate DCF Calculation Dividend Yield Expected Dividend Flotation Cost X Growth Rate Ticker Yield Adjustment (I + 0.625g) (g) ATO 2.44% 1.040 2.63% 5.79% SR 3.11% 1.040 3.32% 4.54% NJR 2.80% 1.040 3.02% 5.99% NWN 3.62% 1.040 3.85% 3.66% SJI 4.12% 1.040 4.39% 4.06% swx 2.72% 1.040 2.92% 5.17% WGL 2.85% 1.040 3.07% 6.18% 4.12% 4.39% 6.18% 3.36% 3.59% 5.89% 2.85% 3.07% 5.17% 2.76% 2.97% 4.30% 2.44% 2.63% 3.66% * Average Return for Proxy Group that must be met for the Comparable Standards Test Secondary Market: Cost of Capital 8.42% 7.87% 9.01% 7.51% 8.45% 8.09% 9.25% 9.25% 8.73% 8.42% 7.98% 7.51% CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY THAT I HAVE THIS 16TH DAY OF DECEMBER 2016, SERVED THE FOREGOING DIRECT TESTIMONY OF MARK ROGERS, IN CASE NO. INT-G-16-02, BY MAILING A COPY THEREOF, POSTAGE PREPAID, TO THE FOLLOWING: MICHAEL P McGRATH DIR-REGULATORY AFFAIRS INTERMOUNT AIN GAS CO PO BOX 7608 BOISE ID 83707 E-MAIL: mike.mcgrath(ci),intgas.com BRADMPURDY ATTORNEY AT LAW 2019 N 17TH STREET BOISE ID 83702 E-MAIL: bmpurdy(ci),hotmail.com CHAD M STOKES TOMMY A BROOKS CABLE HUSTON LLP 1001 SW 5TH AVE STE 2000 PORTLAND OR 97204-1136 E-MAIL: cstokes@cablehuston.com tbrooks@cablehuston.com BENJAMIN J OTTO ID CONSERVATION LEAGUE 710 N 6TH STREET BOISE ID 83702 E-MAIL: botto@idahoconservation.org PETER RICHARDSON GREGORY M ADAMS RICHARDSON ADAMS PLLC 515 N 27TH STREET BOISE ID 83702 E-MAIL: peter@richardsonadams.com greg@richardsonadams.com RONALD L WILLIAMS WILLIAMS BRADBURY 1015 W HAYS ST BOISE ID 83702 E-MAIL: ron@williamsbradbury.com EDWARD A FINKLEA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR NW INDUSTRIAL GAS USERS 545 GRANDVIEW DR ASHLAND OR 87520 E-MAIL: efinklea@nwigu.org ELECTRONIC ONLY MICHAEL C CREAMER GIVENS PURSLEY LLP E-MAIL: mcc@givenspursley.com F DIEGO RIV AS NW ENERGY COALITION 1101 8TH AVENUE HELENA MT 59601 E-MAIL: diego@nwenergy.org SCOTT DALE BLICKENSTAFF AMALGAMATED SUGAR CO LLC 1951 S SATURN WAY STE 100 BOISE ID 83702 E-MAIL: sblickenstaft@amalsugar.com CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE KEN MILLER SNAKE RIVER ALLIANCE PO BOX 1731 BOISE ID 83701 E-MAIL: kmiller@snakeriveralliance.org LANNY L ZIEMAN NATALIE A CEPAK THOMAS A JERNIGAN EBONY M PAYTON AFLOA/JA-ULFSC 139 BARNES DR STE 1 TYNDALL AFB FL 32403 E-MAIL: lanny.zieman. l @us.af.mil Natalie.cepak.2(a),us.af.mil Thomas.jernigan.3@us.af.mil Ebony.payton.ctr@us.af.mil ANDREW J UNSICKER MAJ USAF AFLOA/JACE-ULFSC 139 BARNES DR STE 1 TYNDALL AFB FL 32403 E-MAIL: Andrew.unsicker@us.af.mil SECRETARY CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE