200608222006IRP Replacement pages 43-44.pdf

EXECUTIVE OFFICES
INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY RECEIVED
555 SOUTH COLE ROAD. P.O. BOX 7608. BOISE, IDAHO 83707. [phone]. FAX: [phone]
200& AUG 22 PM~: ~ I
IDAHO I~UBLIC
UTILITIES COMMISSIONAugust 22 , 2006
Jean Jewell
Commission Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington St.
P. O. Box 83720
Boise, 10 83720-0074
RE:Intermountain Gas Company s 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Case No. INT-06-
Dear Ms. Jewell:
Attached for filing with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission as part of the above
referenced Case are the original and seven copies of revised pages 43 and 44.
These replacement pages contain several tables that were inadvertently omitted from
the original filing. Please note that the inclusion of these revised pages does not alter
the pagination as found in the previously filed document.
If there are any questions regarding the attached , please contact me at [phone].
Very tr~IY Y?~,
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r-/
~'~. M~ra
irector
Gas Supply and Regulatory Affairs
M PM/blf
Attachments
Intermountain Gas Company
2007 - 2011 Integrated Resource Plan
During FY05, system enhancements were completed on the SVl and design peak day capacity was
increased from 144 000 therms to 180 000 therms per day. The peak day sendout for the Sun Valley
lateral exceeds current lateral peak day capacity of 180 000 therms/per day starting in 2009 , (Base Case
and High Growth only).
Canyon County Area
The Base Case customer forecast for CCl increases by 18 247 customers (6.5% annualized growth rate)
over the 5-year period. The High Growth customer forecast shows an increase of 19 990 customers
(7.0% annualized growth rate) while the low Growth customer forecast (2007 - FY11) projects an
increase of 13 347 customers (4.9% annualized growth rate).
The 2004 IRP also indicated system enhancements for the CCl. Pressure upgrades in the Canyon
County area during FY05, delayed the projected CCl peak day deficit from FY06 (per the 2004 IRP
report) to 2007 (for both Base Case and High Growth). The peak day sendout for the CCl exceeds this
segments' current peak day capacity of 700 000 therms/per day beginning 2008 for all scenarios.
Total Company
low Growth customer forecast (2007 - FY11) projects an increase of 50 593 customers (2.
annualized growth rate), Base Case customer forecast increases by 88 195 customers (4.8% annualized
growth rate), and High Growth customer forecast shows an increase of 114 211 customers (6.
annualized growth rate).
Intermountain s ability to meet system demand is a function of interstate transportation capacity in
conjunction with Intermountain s storage supplies and other winter deliveries (peak day maximum
deliverability). The design peak day under the low Growth scenario exceeds maximum deliverability in
2007. No shoulder month storage deficits occur during the low Growth scenario, but Intermountain will
need to begin adding some additional winter resources to adequately meet shoulder month demand in
2009 (Base Case) and in 2008 (High Growth).
Using the lDC analyses, Intermountain will be able to anticipate changes in future demand requirements
and plan for the use of existing resources and the timely acquisition of additional resources.
Projected Capacity Deficits - All Scenarios
Residential , commercial and industrial peak day load growth on Intermountain s system under design
weather conditions is forecast over the five-year period to grow at an average annual rates of 3% (low
growth), 4% (base case) and 5% (high growth) highlighted the need for long-term planning. This section
outlines capacity deficits that would occur absent any corrective action by the Company.
Idaho Falls Lateral LDC Study. When forecast peak day sendout on the Idaho Falls lateral is matched
against the existing peak day distribution capacity (830 000 therms), a peak day delivery deficit occurs
beginning in FY07 for all scenarios and continues to increase at the levels shown on the following table:
ScenariofY ear
IFL - Peak Day Deficit Under Existing Resources (MMBtu)2007 2008 2009 2010
Low Growth
084)
045)
946)
603)
765)
830)
(14 061)
686)
725)
(18 127)
(11 8446)
023)
2011
(22 891 )
(14 108)
(8,069)
High Growth
Base Case
Intermountain Gas Company
2007 - 2011 Integrated Resource Plan
Sun Valley Lateral LDC Study. When forecasted peak day send out on the Sun Valley Lateral is
matched against the existing peak day distribution capacity (180 000 therms), a peak day delivery deficit
occurs during 2009 (Base Case and High Growth only) and increases at the levels shown on the following
table:
ScenariofY ear
SVL - Peak Day Deficit Under Existing Resources (MMBtu)2007 2008 2009 2010
High Growth
Base Case
(711 )
(37)
789)
(929)
Low Growth
2011
848)
852)
Canyon County LDC Study. When forecasted peak day send out for the Canyon County region is
matched against the existing peak day distribution capacity (700 000 therms), a peak day delivery deficit
occurs during 2007 (High Growth and Base Case) and during 2008 for Low Growth. These deficits then
increase at the levels shown on the following table:
ScenariofY ear
IFL - Peak Day Deficit Under Existing Resources (MMBtu)2007 2008 2009 2010
High Growth
Base Case
(861 )
(374)
675)
984)
862)
(10 013)
860)
640)
(13 979)
(12 362)
931)Low Growth
2011
(18 057)
(15 897)
(10 237)
All Other LDC Study. No deficits are projected to occur in any of the locations making up the "All Other"
group on Intermountain s system over the five-year study.
Total Company LDC Study. The Total Company perspective differs from the laterals in that it reflects
the amount of gas that can be delivered to Intermountain via the various resources on the interstate
system. Hence, total system deliveries should provide at least the net sum demand - or the total available
distribution capacity where applicable - of all the laterals/areas on the distribution system. The following
table summarizes projected annual peak day deficits based on existing resources:
Total Company - Peak Day Deficit Under Existing Resources (MMBtu)
ScenariofYear 2007 2008 2009 2010
High Growth
Base Case
(30 743)
(23 316)
(13 886)
(49 898)
(36,432)
(19 561)
(75,406)
(55,950)
(30 914)
(166 360)
(66 605)
(31 894)Low Growth
2011
(115,545)
(85 070)
(40,469)