20120831Avista 2012 IRP Appendices.pdf

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2012 NATURAL GAS
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
APPENDICES
AUGUST 31,2012
j7risTA’www.avistautilities.com
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS I RP
ii TABLE OF CONTENTS II APPENDICES
ii Appendix 1.1 TAC Member List Page 1
1.2 Comments and Responses to the 2012 Integrated Resource Plan 2
ii Appendix 2.1 Avista Corporation 2012 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan Work Plan 1
2.2 IRP Guideline Compliance Summaries 4
ii Appendix 3.1 Economic Outlook and Customer Count Forecast I
3.2 Customer Forecasts by Region 8
3.3 Demand Coefficient Calculations 38
3.4 Heating Degree Day Data 50
3.5 Global Warming 55
3.6 Demand Sensitivities and Demand Scenarios 62
3.7 Demand Forecast Sensitivities and Scenarios Descriptions 64
3.8 Annual Demand,Average Day Demand and Peak Day Demand (Net of DSM)67
3.9 Demand Before and After DSM 71
3.10 Detailed Demand Data 76
II Appendix 4.1 Avista Gas CPA Report Final 4/30/2012 1
4.2 Environmental Externalities 76
ii Appendix 5.1 Current Transportation/Storage Rates and Assumptions 1
5.2 Alternate Supply Scenarios 2
II Appendix 6.1 Monthly Price Data by Basin 1
6.2 WACC 7
6.3 Supply Side Resource Options 11
6.4 Avoided Costs Detail 12
Ii Appendix 7.1 High Case Demand and Resources Selected Graphs 1
7.2 Other Scenario Peak Day Demand Table 5
U Appendix 8.1 Distribution System Modeling 1
2O12AVI5TANATURALGASIRP II 1
APPENDIX 1.1 II TAC MEMBER LIST
ORGANIZATION REPRESENTATIVES I
Avista Bruce Folsom Steve Harper
Christopher Williams Kris Ransom
Greg Rahn Linda Gervais
Heather Rosentrater Lori Hermanson
Jeff Webb Pat Ehrbar
John Lyons Randy Barcus
Jon Powell Shawn Bonfield
Kelly Irvine Tom Pardee
Kerry Shroy
Cascade Natural Gas Company Mark Sellers-Vaughn Mike Parvinen
Fortis BC Christina Lemire Ken Ross
Intermountain Gas Dave Swenson Shelli Chase
Mike McGrath
Idaho Public Utility Commission Donn English Rick Sterling
Kathleen McHugh Tern Carlock
Matt Elam
Northwest Gas Association Ben Hemson Dan Kirschner
Northwest Industrial Gas Users Paula Pyron
Northwest Natural Gas John SohI Sarah Dammen
Mark Thompson Jennifer Gross
Northwest Pipeline Dave AlIred Teresa Hagins
Mike Rasmuson
Northwest Power and Conservation Council Terry Morlan
Oregon Public Utility Commission Ken Zimmerman Lisa Gorsuch
Oregon CUB Bob Jenks
Puget Sound Energy Gurvinder Singh Phillip Popoff
TransCanada Celeste Rudolph Lee Bennett
David White
Washington Attorney General’s Office Lea Daeschel
Washington Utility and Transportation David Nightingale Steven Johnson
Commission
Deborah Reynolds Vonda Novak
Rick Applegate
WA Department of Commerce Greg Nothstein
2 II CHAPTER 1 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1.2 COMMENTS AND RESPONSES TO 2012 DRAFT INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN
The following table summarizes the significant comments on our DRAFT as submitted by TAC members
and Avista’s responses.The planning environment in this IRP cycle was especially challenging given
some of the most challenging economic volatility seen in decades coupled with industry changing
dynamics in natural gas production.We continued our robust,flexible demand forecasting methodology
that captured a broad range of demand forecasts fi.illy vetted with our TAC.This IRP produced reduced
forecasted demand scenarios and no near term resource needs even in our most robust demand scenario.
We appreciate the time and effort invested by all our TAC members throughout the IRP process.Many
good suggestions have been made and we have incorporated those that enhance the document.
Document
i Comment/Question Avista ResponseReference
3.1 -Once again Staff requests that Avista We start with annual average demand and
DEMAND Reverse this process.Evaluate need vs.then do the peak demand forecast.We have
resources in terms of annual average enhanced the wording to make it clear that
normal demand first and then move to this is our process.
need vs.resources in terms of peak
demand.This builds demand and resources
from the bottom up,which better
represents how customer demand is
actually built up and served.
3.2 —Storage is a peak and near-peak resource Storage is to serve annual average demand
DEMAND only,correct?as well as providing the delivery capacity to
meet our peak or near-peak day
requirements.Our plan is designed to ensure
that there is sufficient gas available should a
peak weather event occur.
3.2 -Do the analysis for each of these equations The base usage factor is not annual average
DEMAND separately,and only later do the analysis demand.Base usage is non-weather
for the two combined.See notes above,sensitive usage.This represents customer
usage that is consistent throughout the year
for applications like heating water in a
residential home.The weather sensitive is
usage that is dependent on temperature.
When moving from annual average demand
to peak the heating degree day assumption
changes,thereby changing the amount of
heat sensitive demand.
Al)references are in reference to the DRAFT IRP submitted to the TAC on May 25,2012.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 3
Document Comment/Question Avista ResponseReference
3.2 -Basic questions to answer:These questions are considered when
DEMAND developing the customer growth forecast.ItWhywouldsomeonebecomeagasisacombinationofhistoricalanalysisandcustomer?forward estimates driven primarily off of
economics.The how much a customer willAfterbecomingacustomerhowmuchwilluseisbasedinitiallyonhistoricalvaluesbutthatcustomerconsume?is altered for anticipated future issues.For
example we adjust usage based on the
change in natural gas prices through a price
elasticity adjustment and demand side
management measure adoption.
3.3 -So this average base and weather sensitive The use per customer coefficients is applied
DEMAND demand forecast,not design or extreme based on heating degree days.Base usage
peak?factors are multiplied by customers to
develop base usage.Then heat sensitive
coefficients are multiplied by customers and
HDDs and are then added together.This
methodology allows us to vary the weather
assumption so we can do the build up from
average load to peak load.Again we start by
using the base and heat sensitive coefficients
to develop an annual average demand
forecast.We then change the weather
assumption to incorporate peak weather and
calculate the peak demand forecast.
3.6 -And these are...?The worst case scenario would be the death
DEMAND or injury of a customer due to an outage at
extremely cold temperatures.However,the
potential cost due to appliance destruction,
freezing pipes,etc.should also be a
consideration.
3.12 -So the expected case for demand is that on Total demand is expected to grow,but the
DEMAND average it will not grow over the next 20 elasticity adjustment and global warming
years?Correct?Where is the expected also affect total annual demand.The
case on this graph?difference between annual demand in the
expected case and the alternate planning
standard is minimal and so the lines lie
almost on top of one another.
4 II CHAPTER 1 II APPENDICES
Document
i Comment/Question Avista ResponseReference
3.12 -Why is expected case peak demand Peak day demand is growing as customer
DEMAND growing?What are the primary and counts grow.Additionally,we do not apply
secondary elements underlying this a price elastic adjustment to the peak
growth?factors,we assume that people are using at
that level due to extreme temperatures not
necessarily economically driven.Peak
HDDs are also not adjusted for global
warming.
3.13 -But you are still not checking your We have researched many non-statistical
DEMAND “statistical”or “stochastic”forecasting forecasting methodologies and found them
results with non-statistical approaches,so to be not relevant for our forecasting needs.
there is no cross verification?Which non-statistical would provide proper
verification?If we cannot find a valid non-
statistical forecast then verification is not
possible.
3.14 -But for IRP purposes you still need to We first do an average case,which shows
DEMAND focus on an “expected”case demand that we are not resource deficient within the
forecast and then integrate this into the planning horizon.We then layer in the peak
expected case planning portfolio for the weather planning assumption which is our
IRP.Expected case.The process is fully
integrated.
4.1 -DSM So potential estimates are not used?Isn’t Potential estimates are used.Before the
this contrary to the IRP guidelines?DSM potential estimates were developed
Global Energy Partners need to create a
baseline demand forecast without any
incremental DSM.From there Global
developed its DSM potential which is used
in the IRP.
5.8 —SUPPLY But these must be included in the preferred They are if the proposed enhancement
SIDE portfolio and assessed in terms of cost and solves a resource shortage in a particular
RESOURCES risk via that portfolio,region it is assessed in term of cost and risk
in the same manner as other demand and
supply side options.Many distribution
projects are routine maintenance and
reliability enhancements.These costs are not
included in the IRP analysis.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 5
Document
i Comment/Question Avista ResponseReference
6.21 —Highlighted conclusion statement The sentence will be changed to reflect that
INTEGRATED the analysis is performed on the Average
PORTFOLIO Demand case first and then the Expected
Peak Demand case.
7.5 —Does this include the $4.6M in distribution Yes,the Medford project costs were
ALTERNATE upgrades by 2014?See Table 8.1,Ref included in the 2009 IRP and this IRP.
PORTFOLIO #3203.However,it is important to understand that
ANALYSIS not all the capital projects detailed in Table
8.1 are included in the IRP analysis.Many
of the capital projects are part of routine
capital maintenance or are distribution
system reliability/reinforcement issues and
are not IRP issues.The IRP will include the
costs necessary to facilitate additional
interstate pipeline capacity takeaway when
an area is resource deficient from a supply
side,as was the case in Medford.
6 II CHAPTER 1 II APPENDICES
Document
Reference’Comment/Question Avista Response
9.4 —ACTION What supply-side resources does the IRP The Action Plan was re-written to address
PLAN indicate are needed in the next two-three these items.
years?
What demand-side resources does the IRP
indicate are needed in the next two-three
years?
Which of those from #1 and #2 are
included in the IRP for assessment?
Any other resources shown in the IRP
needed over next two-three years?
Identify top 3-5 resource portfolios in
terms of cost (NPVRR)and risk,and the
portfolio chosen by the Company for this
IRP (with all reasoning behind that choice
laid out).Most of these values are
included in Chapter 7,particularly the
section called “Portfolio Selection”and in
Table 7.3,as well as at the “Conclusion”
section form Chapter 7.Also the chapter 7
analysis should be at least summarized in
this chapter.Also,as noted on my notes
for Table 7.3 an explanation needs to be
included of whether the NPVRRs include
the distribution resources and costs from
Chapter 8,and summarized here.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 7
Document
Comment/Question Avista ResponseReference
Chapter 4 -Commission staff has some concerns that We show the graphs which will be included
DSM every one of the company’s demand in Appendix 6 where we compare demand
forecasts includes a Demand Side with and without DSM.The updated CPA
Management (DSM)effects adjustment on provided less DSM potential than previous
top of each forecast.Commission staff IRPs.There is not a material difference
would like to see each one of the between the two which the graphs will
company’s forecasts without this show.
downward adjustment in load.This is due
to current relative uncertainty of actual net Historic numbers which are used to generate
effect that DSM has on load,and various the use per customer coefficients have
off-setting factors that may be present and embedded in them demand side
unaccounted for when calculating an management.A comparison of IRP use to
estimated impact on the company’s overall actual is provided to staff each quarter as a
load.The company may include a forecast part of our quarterly update.
which incorporates this downward
adjustment,but also alongside that
forecast,have a picture of load without
this adjustment.Commission staffwould
also like see the performance of these
downward adjusted forecasts historically.
Chapter 3 -In this current IRP,the company has Very cold is defined as HDDs equal to or
DEMAND developed Use Per Customer models for greater than 65.
average use and for peak use,to better
allow the company to depict (and predict)
customer responses in terms of gas use in
various temperature situations.For the
company’s super peak coefficients (which
are utilized to model extreme occurrences,
beyond typical annual peaks),it is
necessary for the company to define what
“very cold temperatures”were.
8 II CHAPTER 1 II APPENDICES
Commission staff has concerns that the
three years of data the Company used is
not sufficient to establish its use per
customer coefficients,and that Avista
should consider using at least five years of
data.The company has stated in its IRP
that “five years incorporate some years of
higher use per customer,which may
overstate use due to changes in building
codes and investments made in
conservation initiatives1.”Looking at
figure 33[2]which shows a graph ofthe
three-year Use Per Customer versus the
five-year Use Per Customer on a total
system basis,it appears the three-year and
five-year lines lay relatively on top of one
another.The speed of energy efficiency
measure implementation and building code
changes does not seem to commission staff
to make such significant advances in a
span of two years that these additional
historical years must be excluded to
prevent future bias in the company’s Use
Per Customer coefficients.Due to this
observation,it makes sense to commission
staff to utilize the five years of data points,
to ensure that sufficient data points are
used to allow development of a strong
relationship.
The difference between 3 years and 5 years
is not significantly different for Washington
and Idaho.However,there is a significant
difference for our Oregon service territory.
In order to maintain consistency in our
modeling and because the difference is
insignificant in Washington and Idaho we
utilized 3 years of data.There is a strong
correlation,R-squared of over 90%with the
three years of data.
Chapter 3 -
DEMAND
Document
Reference’Comment/Question Avista Response
[U Chapter 3,Demand Forecasts,page 3.4
[2]Chapter 3,Demand Forecasts,page 3.5
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 9
Commission staff also has concerns about
what seems to be a “conditional global
warming”trend in its forecasts of future
heating degree days in the planning
period.The company claims that there has
arisen from the analysis of historical
weather data,a distinct warming trend in
average weather data,yet the warming
trend is absent,at least with any certainty,
from the peak weather data.This caused
the company to make adjustments
downward in forecasts for future expected
weather conditions,but not make any
adjustments in future peak weather
conditions.Commission staff is of the
opinion that if a global warming trend
exists,it should apply universally.At a
minimum,the Company should explain in
its next IRP why the trend is absent in the
peak weather conditions.
We discussed the issue with the TAC at our
first meeting.Consistent with our previous
IRP we do not apply the global warming
adjustment to our peak day weather
planning assumption as we have not found
evidence that global warming does in fact
affect extreme events.If anything we have
heard that volatility in weather may in fact
be greater due to the overall global warming
trend.To the extent we discover research
counter to our current assumption we will
assess it in our next IRP cycle.
Chapter 3 -
DEMAND
Document
Reference’CommentiQuestion Avista Response
10 II CHAPTER 1 II APPENDICES
The company has included in this overview of
conservation,the low natural gas prices,and they
have stated in their IRP that this is impacting the
cost-effectiveness of measures due to the low
avoided costs resulting from low natural gas prices.
In WAC 480-90-23 8 (2)(b),the section titled
“definitions”,there is stated lowest reasonable cost
mix of resources must,at a minimum,consider the
following:
Resource costs
Market-volatility risks
Demand-side resource uncertainties
Risks imposed on ratepayers
Resource effect on system operations
Public policies regarding resource preference
adopted by Washington state or the federal
government
Costs of risks associated with environmental effects
including emissions of carbon dioxide
Need for security of supply
Commission staff has concerns that Avista’s avoided
costs calculation resulted in omitting many
conservation measures,due to heavily emphasizing
the relatively low cost of gas in this current time
period,and the failure to consider appropriately the
other variables which should play a larger role in the
calculation.The nature of an IRP was meant to be
utilized as a long-range planning tool,and
commission staff considers the other variables
mentioned in WAC 280-90-238 (2)(b)to be
important,and not to be minimized.
Specifically,commission staff would like the
company to make a comparative avoided costs
analysis to that shown in NW Natural’s 2010
Natural Gas IRP,Docket UG-100245 in Chapter 6.2
and present the results in its revision of their draft
plan.Commission staff notes that NW Natural
included a 10%conservation adder to avoided costs
to account for unquantifiable benefits of DSM as
suggested by the NW Power and Conservation
Council,as well as a C02 emission adder.
Commission staff would like to see these
components added to Avista’s avoided costs
calculation.
The IRP selected essentially all the
DSM that was given to the model.The
avoided cost stream that comes from
SENDOUT®does include a C02
adder,as it is embedded in the expected
price curve.The avoided costs also
include variable charges (volumetric
pipeline charges and fuel).This cost
stream is provided to our DSM
department for business planning
purposes and program
development/measurement,where they
further incorporate the 10%
conservation adder as well as a
distribution system cost adder.
Avista agrees with staff that the IRP is a
long term plan and appropriately
incorporates variables into the
calculation.We agree that the low cost
of gas in this current time period
provides challenges for DSM programs;
however the low cost is good for our
customers.Additionally,we run a
scenario with high prices to understand
what implications that may have on our
customer usage and portfolio costs and
ultimately the avoided cost used to
determine the cost effectiveness of
DSM programs.Evaluation of the
avoided costs will be ongoing.Should
the price of natural gas rise rendering
programs cost effective we will be
proactive in requesting reinstatement
our natural gas DSM programs.
Chapter 4—
DSM
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 1
APPENDIX 2.1 II AVISTA CoRPoRATIoN 2012 NATURAL GAS INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN WORK PLAN
IRP WORK PLAN REQUIREMENTS
Section 480-90-238 (4),of the natural gas Integrated Resource Plan (“IRP”)rules,specify requirements
for the IRP Work Plan:
Not later than twelve months prior to the due date of a plan,the utility must provide a
work plan for informal commission review.The work plan must outline the content of the
integrated resource plan to be developed by the utility and the method for assessing
potential resources.
Additionally,Section 480-90-238 (5)of the WAC states:
The work plan must outline the timing and extent of public participation.
OVERVIEW
This Work Plan outlines the process Avista will follow to complete its 2012 Natural Gas IRP by Aug.31,
2012.Avista uses a public process to obtain technical expertise and guidance throughout the planning
period via Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)meetings.The TAC will be providing input into
assumptions,scenarios,and modeling techniques.
PROCESS
The 2012 IRP process will be similar to that used to produce the previously published plan.Avista will
use SENDOUT®(a PC based linear programming model widely used to solve natural gas supply and
transportation optimization questions)to develop the risk adjusted least-cost resource mix for the 20 year
planning period.
This plan will continue to include demand analysis,demand side management and avoided cost
determination,existing and potential supply-side resource analysis,resource integration and alternative
sensitivities and scenario analysis.
Additionally,Avista intends to incorporate action plan items identified in the 2009 Natural Gas IRP
including more detailed demand analysis regarding use per customer,demand side management results
and possible price elastic responses to evolving economic conditions,an updated assessment of
conservation potential in our service territories,consideration of alternate forecasting methodologies,and
the changing landscape of natural gas supply (i.e.shale gas,Canadian exports,and US LNG exports)and
its implications to the planning process.Further details about Avista’s process for determining the risk
adjusted least-cost resource mix is shown in Exhibit 1.
2 II CHAPTER2 II APPENDICES
TIMELI NE
The following is Avista’s TENTATIVE 2012 Natural Gas IRP timeline:
August 31,2011
January through April 2012
May 11,2012
June 29,2012
July 17,2012
August 31,2012
Work Plan filed with WUTC
Technical Advisory Committee meetings (exact meeting dates
subject to change).Meeting topics will include:
January 17 Demand Forecast &Demand-Side Management
Distribution Planning &Supply/Infrastructure andFebruary21PotentialCaseDiscussion
March 20 SENDOUT®Preliminary Output Results and
Further Case Discussion
April 17 SENDOUT®results
Draft of IRP document to TAC
Comments on draft due back to Avista
TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
File finalized IRP document
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 3
EXHIBIT 1:AvI5TA’s 2012 NATURAL GAS IRP MODELING PROCESS
Demand Forecast by Area a
•Customer counts
•Use per customer
Elasticity
•Basis differential
•Volatility
•Seasonal Spreads
Existing Supply-Side Resources
•Costs
•Operational Characteristics
Demand-Side Resources
•Assess DSM resource options
•Integrate DSM in resource portfolio
Weather
•30-year NOAA average by area plus
Peak Day weather
Key Considerations
•Resource Cost
•Peakvs.BaseLoad
.Lead Time Requirements SENDOUT®
•Resource Usefulness Optimization
“Lumpiness”of Resource Options Run
______________________
Solve for deficiencies and
Sensitivity/Scenario incorporate those into the
Analysis least costs resource mix for
•Customer Counts the 20-year period.
•Use per customer
•DSM
•Monte Carlo
•Etc.
Compile Data and Write
the IRP Document.
Gate Station
Analysis
Price Curve
Analysis
SENDOUT’
Optimization
Run
Identify when and where
deficiencies occur In the 20-
year planning period.
Planning
ardRevieJ4J
Enter all Future Resource Options:
•Demand-Side
•Suolv-Side
I Avoided Cost
Determination
4 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 2.2 ii WASHINGTON PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IRP PoLiciEs AND
GUIDELINES —WAC 480-90-238
Avista Natural Gas IRP Review
Rule Requirement Plan Citation
WAC 480-90-238(4)Work plan filed no later than 12 months before next IRP due Work plan submitted to the WUTC on August
date.31,2011,See attachment to this Appendix 2.1.
WAC 480-90-238(4)Work plan outlines content ofIRP.See workplan attached to this Appendix 2.1.
WAC 480-90-238(4)Work plan outlines method for assessing potential resources.See Appendix 2.1.
(See LRC analysis below)
WAC 480-90-238(5)Work plan outlines timing and extent of public participation.See Appendix 2.1.
WAC 480-90-238(4)Integrated resource plan submitted within two years of Last Integrated Resource Plan was submitted
previous plan.on December 31,2009.In March 2011 the
company asked to extend the deadline offiling
to August 31,2012 due to the lack of
immediate resource needs and in order to
alleviate resource burdens.
WAC 480-90-238(5)Commission issues notice of public hearing after company TBD
files plan for review.
WAC 480-90-238(5)Commission holds public hearing.TBD
WAC 480-90-238(2)(a)Plan describes mix of natural gas supply resources.See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
WAC 480-90-238(2)(a)Plan descnbes conservation supply.See Chapter 4 on Demand Side Resources
WAC 480-90-238(2)(a)Plan addresses supply in terms of current and future needs See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources and
ofutility and ratepayers.Chapter 6 [ntegrated Resource Portfolio
WAC 480-90-Plan uses lowest reasonable cost (LRC)analysis to select See Chapters 4 and 5 for Demand and Supply
238(2)(a)&(b)mix ofresources.Side Resources.Chapter 6 details how
Demand and Supply come together to select
the least cost/best risk portfolio for ratepayers.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers resource cosis.See Chapters 4 and 5 for Demand and Supply
Side Resources.Chapter 6 details how
Demand and Supply come together to select
the least cost/best risk portfolio for ratepayers.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers market-volatility risks.See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers demand side uncertainties.See Chapter 3 Demand Forecasting
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers resource effect on system See Chapter 5 and Chapter 6
operation.
WAC’480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers risks imposed on ratepayers.See Chapter 5 procurement plan section.We
seek to minimize but cannot eliminate price risk
for our customers.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers public policies regarding resource See Chapter 3 demand scenarios
preference adopted by Washington state or federal
government.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers cost of risks associated with See Chapter 3 on demand scenarios
environmental effects including emissions ofcarbon dioxide.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b)LRC analysis considers need for security of supply.See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 5
Rule Requirement Plan Citaflon
WAC 480-90-238(2)(c)Plan defines conservation as any reduction in natural gas See Chapter 4 on Demand Side Resources
consumption that results from increases in the efficiency of
energy use or distribution.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(a)Plan includes a range of forecasts of future demand.See Chapter 3 on Demand Forecast
WAC 480-90-238(3)(a)Plan develops forecasts using methods that examine the See Chapter 3 on Demand Forecast
effect of economic forces on the consumption ofnatural gas.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(a)Plan develops forecasts using methods that address changes See Chapter 3 on Demand Forecast
in the number,type and efficiency ofnatural gas end-uses.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(b)Plan includes an assessment of commercially available See Chapter 4 on Demand Side Management
conservation,including load management.including demand response section.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(b)Plan includes an assessment of cunently employed and new See Chapter 4 and Appendix 4.1.
policies and programs needed to obtain the conservation
improvements.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(c)Plan includes an assessment of conventional and See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
commercially available nonconventional gas supplies.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(d)Plan includes an assessment of opportunities for using See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
company-owned or contracted storage.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(e)Plan includes an assessment of pipeline transmission See Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
capability and reliability and opportunities for additional
pipeline transmission resources.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(f)Plan includes a comparative evaluation of the cost of natural See Chapter 4 on Demand Side Resources and
gas purchasing strategies,storage options,delivery Chapter 5 on Supply Side Resources
resources,and improvements in conservation using a
consistent method to calculate cost-effectiveness.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(g)Plan includes at least a 10 year long-range planning horizon.Our plan is a comprehensive 20 year plan.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(g)Demand forecasts and resource evaluations are integrated Chapter 6 Integrated Resource Portfolio
into the long range plan for resource acquisition.details how demand and supply come together
to form the least costlbest risk portfolio.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(h)Plan includes a two-year action plan that implements the See Section 9 Action Plan
long range plan.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(i)Plan includes a progress report on the implementation of the See Section 9 Action Plan
previously filed plan.
WAC 480-90-238(5)Plan includes description of consultation with commission See Section 1 Introduction
staff.(Description not required)
WAC 480-90-238(5)Plan includes description of completion of work plan.See Appendix 2.1.
(Description not required)
6 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 2.2 ii IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IRP POLICIES AND
GUIDELINES —ORDER NO.25342
a.
h.
C.
A range of forecasts offl.sture gas demand in firm and interruptible rmsrkets for See Chapter 3-Demand Forecasts and Appendia 3 et.at.fora detailed discussion of
each customer class for one,five,and twenty years using methods that howdemand was forecasted for this IRP.
carmine the effect of economic forces on the consumption of gas and that
address +k....t.--—-‘‘e-fflciencv ofeas end-uses.‘-
An assessment for each customer class of the technically feasible See Chapter 4-DemandSide Managementand DSM Appendlcies 4 eLat.for detailed
inq,rovements in the efficient use of gas,including load nanagement,as well infornartion on the DSM potentialevaluated and selected forthis IR?and the operational
as the noticies and DrOoraIsa needed to obtain the efl’iciencv imarovements,imolementation trmcess.
An analysis for each customer class of gas supply options,including:(I)a See Chapter 5 -Supply-Side Resources for details about the market,storage,and
projection of spot nairket versus long-term purchases for both firm and pipeline transportation as wellas otherresourcc options considered in this IRP.Sec also
interruptible markets;(2)an evaluation ofthe opportunities for using company-the procurement plan section in this same chapterfor supply procurement strategies.
owned or contracted storage or production;(3)an analysis of prospects for
company participation in a gas futures market;and (4)an assessment of
opportunities foraccess to multiple pipeline suppliers or direct purchases from
emducers.
DECR1PTION OFRFQUIREMR?4T 14JL1,FThLMll7’IT OF REJtlR I’ll
Purpose and Process.Each gas utility regulated by the Idaho Public Utilities Avista prepares a comprehensive 20 year Integrated Resource Plan every two years.
Commission with retail sales of more than 10,000,000,000 cubic feet in a Avista willbe filing its 2012 IRP on or before August 31,2012.
calendaryear (eacept gas utilities doing business in Idaho that are regulated
by contract with a regulatory commission of another State)has the
responsibility to meet system demand at least cost to the utility and its
ratepayers.Therefore,an “integrated resoarce plan”shall be developed by
each gas utility subject to this rule.
2 Dcfmition.Integrated resource planning.“Integrated resource planning”Avista’s IRP brings together dynamic demand forecasts and matches them against
means planning by the use of any standard,regulalinn,practice,or policy to demand-side and supply-side resources in order to evaluate the least cost/best risk
undertake a systematic comparison between demand-side management portfoio for its core customers.While the prfr ary focus has been to ensure customer’s
measures and the supply of gas by a gas utility to minimize life-cycle costs of needs are met under peak or design weather conditions,this process also evaluates the
adequate and reliable utility services to gas customers.Integrated resource resource portfolio under normal/average operating conditions.The IRPprovides the
planning shall take into account necessary features for system operation such framework and methodology for evaluating Avista’s natural gas demand and resources.
as diversity,reliability,dispatchability,and other flrctors ofriskand shall treat
demand and supply to gas consumers on a consistent and integrated basis,
3 Elements of Plan,Each gas utility shall submit to the Commission on a biennial 2012 IRP to be filed on orbefore August 31,2012 The last IRPwas filed on December31,
basis an integratedresource plan that shall include:2009.In March2011 Avista asked for an extention in meeting the filing deadline.The
lack ofinimediale resource needs coupled with betterbalancing ofwork load needs
facilitated a change to the August 31,2012 filing date.
6 Public Participation,In formulating its plan,the gas utility must provide an Avista held fourTechnical Advisory Committee meetings beginning in January and
opportunity for public participation and comnwnl and must provide methods ending in April.See Chapter 1 -Introduction for more detail about public participation in
that will be available to the public ofvalidating predicted perfomnce.the IRP process.
d.
e.
f;
A comparative evaluation ofgas purchasing options and improvements in the See Methodology section ofChapter 4-Demand-Side Resources where we describe our
efficient use of gas based on a consistent method for calculating cost-process on how demand-side and supply-side resources are compared on parwith each
effectiveness,other in the SFNDOUT®modeL Chapter 4also includes how results fromthe IRP are
then utilized to create operational business plans.Operational implementation nay differ
fium IRP results due to modeling assumptions.
The integration ofthe demand forecast and resource evaluations into a long-See Chapter 6-Integrated Resource Portfolio for details on howwe model demand and
range (e.g.,twenty-year)integrated resource plan describing the strategies supply coming together to provide the least cost/best risk portfolio ofresources.
designed to meet current and future needs at the lowest cost to the utility and
its mtepayerS.
A shorl-terai (e.g.,two-year)plan outlining the specific actions to be taken by See Chapter 9-Action Plan for actions to be taken in inplen-enting the IRP.
the utility in implementing the integrated resource plan.
Relationship Between Plans.All plans following the initial integrated resource Avista strives to meet at least bi-annually with Staffand/orComvmoñsioners to discuss the
plan shall include a progress report that relates the new plan to the previously state ofthe market,procurement planning practices,and any other issues that nay
filed plan.need5_L .k •r._Inn
,,.,““-,,
Plans to Be Considered in Rate Cases.The integrated resource plan will be We prepare and file our plan in part to establish a public record ofour plan.
considered with other available information to evaluate the perfomanec of the
utility in rat -‘--‘--the ‘‘—‘--‘.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 7
7 Legal Effect of Plan.The plan constitutes the base line against which the See section titled “Avista’s Procurenmnt Plan in Chapter 5-SuNiy-SIde Resources.utility’s perfomnnce will ordinariiy be muasured.The requitmmnt for Anmng other details we discuss plan revisions in response to changing trurketitrplenwntationofaplandoesnottrannthattheplanoustbefollowedwithoutconditions.
deviation.The tequirenwnt of implenwntation of a plan nans that a gas
utility,having nude an integrated resource plan to provide adequate and
reliable service to its gas custotnrs at the lowest system cost,nuy and should
deviate fromthat plan when presented with responsible,reliable opportunities
to further lowerits planned systemcost not anticipated oridentified in misting
orearlierplans and not undermining the utility’s reliability.
In order to encourage prudent planning and prudent deviation from past See also section titled ‘Alternate Supply-Side Scenarios”in Chapter 6-Integratedplanningwhenpresentedsvithopportunitiesforitrprovinguponaplan,a gas Resource Portfolio sthere we discuss different supp’portfolios that are resonsive toutility’s plan must be on file with the Commission and available for public changing assumptions about resource alternatives.
inspection.But the filing of a plan does not constitute appms’al or
disa-pproval of the plan having the force and effect oflass’,and deviation from
the plan would not constitute violation ofthe Commission’s Orders or rules.
The prudence ofa utility’s plan and the utility’s prudence in following or not
following a plan are nastters that tiny be considered in a general rate
proceeding or other pmce-cdings in which those issues have been noticed.
8 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 2.2 ii OREGON PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IRP STANDARD AND
GUIDELINES —ORDER 07-002
Guideline 1:Substantive Requirements
1.a.1 All resources must be evaluated on a All resource options considered,including demand-side and
consistent and comparable basis.supply-side are modeled in SENDOUT®utilizing the same
common general assumptions,approach and methodology.
I .a.2 All known resources for meeting the Avista considered a range ofresources including demand-
utility’s load should be considered,side management,distribution system enhancements,
including supply-side options which capacity release recalls,interstate pipeline transportation,
focus on the generation,purchase and interruptible customer supply,and storage options including
transmission of power —or gas liquefied natural gas.Chapter 4 and Appendix 4.1
purchases,transportation,and storage —documents Avista’s demand-side management resources
and demand-side options which focus considered.Chapter 5 and Appendix 6.3 documents supply-
on conservation and demand response.side resources.Chapter 6 and 7 documents how Avista
developed and assessed each of these resources.
1.a.3 Utilities should compare different Avista considered various combinations of technologies,
resource fuel types,technologies,lead lead times,in-service dates,durations,and locations.
times,in-service dates,durations and Chapter 6 provides details about the modeling methodology
locations in portfolio risk modeling,and results.Chapter 5 describes resource attributes and
Appendix 6.3 summarizes the resources’lead times,in-
service dates and locations.
1.a.4 Consistent assumptions and methods Appendix 6.2 documents general assumptions used in
should be used for evaluation of all Avista’s SENDOUT®modeling software.All portfolio
resources.resources both demand and supply-side were evaluated
within SENDOUT®using the same sets of inputs.
I.a.5 The after-tax marginal weighted-Avista applied its after-tax WACC of 5.35%to discount all
average cost of capital (WACC)should future resource costs.(See general assumptions at Appendix
be used to discount all future resource 6.2)
costs.
1.b.1 Risk and uncertainty must be Not Applicable
considered.Electric utilities only
I .b.2 Risk and uncertainty must be Risk and uncertainty are key considerations in long term
considered.Natural gas utilities should planning.In order to address risk and uncertainties a wide
consider demand (peak,swing and base-range of sensitivity,scenario and portfolio analysis is
load),commodity supply and price,completed.A description of risk associated with each
transportation availability and price,and scenario is included in Appendix 3.6.
costs to comply with any regulation of
greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions.One of the key risks is the “flat demand”risk as described
in Chapter 2.Avista performed 14 sensitivities on demand.
From there five demand scenarios were developed (Table
1.1)for SENDOUT®modeling purposes.Monthly demand
coefficients were developed for base,heating demand while
peak demand was contemplated through modeling a
weather planning standard ofthe coldest day on record (see
heating degree day data in Appendix 3.4).
Avista evaluated several price forecasts and selected high,
medium and low price scenarios for modeling purposes.
The annual average prices are then weighted by month
using fundamental forecast data.Additionally,the Henry
Hub price forecasts are basis adjusted using the same
fundamental forecast data.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 9
Four supply scenarios were also evaluated,see Table 5.3.
These supply scenarios were combined with demand
scenarios in order to establish portfolios for evaluation.
Ultimately 9 portfolios were evaluated (See Table 7.3 for
the PVRR results).
Avista stochastic modeling techniques for price and weather
variables to analyze weather sensitivity and to quantify the
risk to customers under varying price environments.While
there continues to be some uncertainty around GHG
emission,Avista considered GHG emissions regulatory
compliance costs in Appendix 4.2.As currently modeled,
we include a carbon adder to our price curve to capture the
costs of emission rçgulation.
-
Utilities should identify in their plans Avista evaluated additional risks and uncertainties.Risks
any additional sources of risk and associated with the planning environment are detailed in
uncertainty.Chapter 1 Introduction.Avista also analyzed demand risk
which is detailed in Chapter 3.Chapter 4 discusses the
uncertainty around how much DSM is achievable.Supply-
side resource risks are discussed in Chapter 5.Chapter 6
and 7 discusses the variables modeled for scenario and
stochastic risk analysis.
1 c The primary goal must be the selection Avista evaluated costJrisk tradeoffs for each of the risk
of a portfolio ofresources with the best analysis portfolios considered.See Chapter 6 and 7 plus
combination of expected costs and supporting information in Appendix 3.6 for Avista’s
associated risks and uncertainties for the portfolio risk analysis and determination of the preferred
utility and its customers,portfolio.
The planning horizon for analyzing Avista used a 20-year study period for portfolio modeling.
resource choices should be at least 20 Avista contemplated possible costs beyond the planning
years and account for end effects,period that could affect rates including end effects such as
Utilities should consider all costs with a infrastructure decommission costs and concluded there werereasonablelikelihoodofbeingincludednosignificantcostsreasonablylikelytoimpactratesunder
in rates over the long term,which different resource selection scenarios.
extends beyond the planning horizon
and the life of the resource.
Utilities should use present value of Avista’s SENDOUT®modeling software utilizes a PVRR
revenue requirement (PVRR)as the key cost metric methodology applied to both long and short-
cost metric.The plan should include lived resources.
analysis of current and estimated future
costs of all long-lived resources such as
power plants,gas storage facilities and
pipelines,as well as all short-lived
resources such as gas supply and short-
term power purchases.
To address risk,the plan should include Avista,through its stochastic analysis,modeled 200
at a minimum:1)Two measures of scenarios around varying gas price inputs via Monte Carlo
PVRR risk:one that measures the iterations developing a distribution of Total 20 year cost
variability ofcosts and one that estimates utilizing SENDOUT®’s PVRR methodology.
measures the severity ofbad outcomes.Chapter 7 further describes this analysis.The variability of
2)Discussion of the proposed use and costs is plotted against the Expected Case while the
impact on costs and risks of physical scenarios beyond the 95th percentile capture the severity of
and fmancial hedging.outcomes.Chapter 5 discusses Avista’s physical and
financial hedging methodology.
The utility should explain in its plan Chapter 5,6,and 7 describe various specific resource
how its resource choices appropriately considerations and related risks,and describes what criteria
10 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
balance cost and risk,we used to determine what resource combinations provide
an appropriate balance between cost and risk.
id The plan must be consistent with the Avista considered current and expected state and federal
long-run public interest as expressed in energy policies in portfolio modeling.Chapter 6 describes
Oregon and federal energy policies,the decision process used to derive portfolios,which
includes consideration of state resource policy directions.
Guideline 2:Procedural Requirements
2a The public,including other utilities,Chapter 1 provides an overview of the public process and
should be allowed significant documents the details on public meetings held for the 2012
involvement in the preparation of the IRP.Avista encourages participation in the development of
IRP.Involvement includes opportunities the plan,as each party brings a unique perspective and the
to contribute information and ideas,as ability to exchange information and ideas makes for a more
well as to receive information.Parties robust plan.
must have an opportunity to make
relevant inquiries of the utility
formulating the plan.
While confidential information must be The entire IRP,as well as the TAC process,includes all of
protected,the utility should make the non-confidential information the company used for
public,in its plan,any non-confidential portfolio evaluation and selection.Avista also provided
information that is relevant to its stakeholders with non-confidential information to support
resource evaluation and action plan.public meeting discussions via email.The document and
appendices will be available on the company website for
viewing.
The utility must provide a draft IRP for Avista distributed a draft IRP document for external review
public review and comment prior to to all TAC members on May 25,2012 and requested
filing a final plan with the Commission.comments by July 13,2012.
Guideline 3:Plan Filing,Review and Updates
3a Utility must file an IRP within two This Plan complies with this requirement as the 2009
years of its previous IRP Natural Gas IRP was acknowledged on 6/08/20 10.
acknowledgement order.
3b Utility must present the results of its Avista will work with Staff to fulfill this guideline
filed plan to the Commission at a public following filing ofthe IRP.
meeting prior to the deadline for written
public comment.
3c Commission staff and parties should Pending
complete their comments and
recommendations within six months of
IRP filing
3d The Commission will consider Pending
comments and recommendations on a
utility’s plan at a public meeting before
issuing an order on acknowledgment.
The Commission may provide the
utility an opportunity to revise the plan
before issuing an acknowledgment
order
3e The Commission may provide direction Pending
to a utility regarding any additional
analyses or actions that the utility
should undertake in its next IRP.
3f Each utility must submit an annual An annual update was filed on May 9,201 1.No request for
update on its most recently acknowledgement was required.
acknowledged plan.The update is due
on or before the acknowledgment order
anniversary date.Once a utility
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 11
anticipates a significant deviation from
its acknowledged IRP,it must file an
update with the Commission,unless the
utility is within six months of filing its
next IRP.The utility must summarize
the update at a Commission public
meeting.The utility may request
acknowledgment of changes in
proposed actions identified in an update
3g Unless the utility requests The annual update filed on May 9,201 1 was an
acknowledgement of changes in informational filing updating changes since
proposed actions,the annual update is acknowledgment of the 2009 IRP and an update of
an informational filing that:emerging planning issues.The update did not request
ii Describes what actions the utility has acknowledgement of any changes.A request to present thetakentoimplementtheplan;information at a public meeting was not requested.n Provides an assessment of what has
changed since the acknowledgment
order that affects the action plan,
including changes in such factors as
load,expiration of resource contracts,
supply-side and demand-side
resource acquisitions,resource costs,
and transmission availability;and
ii Justifies any deviations from the
acknowledged action plan.
Guideline 4:Plan Components
At a minimum,the plan must include
the following
elements:
4a An explanation ofhow the utility met This table summarizes guideline compliance by providing
each of the substantive and procedural an overview of how Avista met each of the substantive and
requirements.procedural requirements for a natural gas IRP.
4b Analysis ofhigh and low load growth Avista developed five demand growth forecasts for scenario
scenarios in addition to stochastic load analysis.Stochastic variability of demand was also captured
risk analysis with an explanation of in the risk analysis.Chapter 2 describes the demand forecast
major assumptions.data and Chapter 6 provides the scenario and risk analysis
results.Appendix 6 details major assumptions.
4c For electric utilities only Not Applicable
4d A determination of the peaking,swing Figures 1.11 and 1.12 summarize graphically projected
and base-load gas supply and associated annual peak day demand and the existing and selected
transportation and storage expected for resources by year to meet demand for the expected case.
each year of the plan,given existing Appendix 7.1 and 7.2 summarizes the peak day demand forresources;and identification of gas the other demand scenarios.
supplies (peak,swing and base-load),
transportation and storage needed to
bridge the gap between expected loads
and resources.
4e Identification and estimated costs of all Chapter 4 and Appendix 4.1 identify the demand-side
supply-side and demand-side resource potential included in this IRP.Chapter 5 and 6 and
options,taking into account anticipated Appendix 6.3 identify the supply-side resources.
advances in technology
4f Analysis of measures the utility intends Chapter 6,7,and 8 discusses the modeling tools,customer
to take to provide reliable service,growth forecasting and cost-risk considerations used to
including cost-risk tradeoffs,maintain and plan a reliable gas delivery system.These
Chapters also captures a summary of the reliability analysis
process demonstrated at the second TAC meeting.
12 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
Chapter 5 discusses the diversified infrastructure and
multiple supply basin approach that acts to mitigate certain
reliability risks.Appendix 3.6 highlights key risks
associated with each portfolio.
4g Identification ofkey assumptions about Appendix 6 and Chapter 6 describe the key assumptions and
the future (e.g.fuel prices and alternative scenarios used in this IRP.
environmental compliance costs)and
alternative scenarios considered.
4h Construction of a representative set of This Plan documents the development and results for
resource portfolios to test various portfolios evaluated in this IRP (see Table 5.3 for supply
operating characteristics,resource types,scenarios considered).
fuels and sources,technologies,lead
times,in-service dates,durations and
general locations -system-wide or
delivered to a specific portion of the
system.
41 Evaluation ofthe performance of the We evaluated our candidate portfolio by performing
candidate portfolios over the range of stochastic analysis using SENDOUT®varying price under
identified risks and uncertainties.200 different scenarios.Additionally,we test the portfolio
of options with the use of SENDOUT®under deterministic
scenarios where demand and price vary.For resources
selected,we assess other risk factors such as varying lead
times required and potential for cost overruns outside of the
amounts included in the modeling assumptions.
4j Results of testing and rank ordering of Avista’s four distinct geographic Oregon service territories
the portfolios by cost and risk metric,limit many resource option synergies which inherently
and interpretation of those results,reduces available portfolio options.Feasibility uncertainty,
lead time variability and uncertain cost escalation around
certain resource options also reduce reasonably viable
options.Chapter 5 describes resource options reviewed
including discussion on uncertainties in lead times and costs
as well as viability and resource availability (e.g.LNG).
Appendix 6.3 summarizes the potential resource options
identifying investment and variable costs,asset availability
and lead time requirements while results of resources
selected are identified in Table 6.5 as well as graphically
presented in Figure 6.18 and 6.19 for the Expected Case and
Appendix 7.1 for the High Growth case.
4k Analysis of the uncertainties associated See the responses to l.b above.
with each portfolio evaluated
41 Selection of a portfolio that represents Avista evaluated cost/risk tradeoffs for each of the risk
the best combination of cost and risk for analysis portfolios considered.Chapter 6 and Appendix 3.6
the utility and its customers show the company’s portfolio risk analysis,as well as the
process and determination of the preferred portfolio.
4m Identification and explanation of any This IRP is presumed to have no inconsistencies.
inconsistencies of the selected portfolio
with any state and federal energy
policies that may affect a utility’s plan
and any barriers to implementation
4n An action plan with resource activities Chapter 9 presents the IRP Action Plan with focus on the
the utility intends to undertake over the following areas:
next two to four years to acquire the ii Modeling
identified resources,regardless of ii Supply/capacity
whether the activity was acknowledged ii Forecasting
in a previous IRP,with the key ii Regulatory communication
attributes of each resource specified as DSM
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 13
I in portfolio testing.
Guideline 5:Transmission
5 Portfolio analysis should include costs Not applicable to Avista’s gas utility operations.
to the utility for the fuel transportation
and electric transmission required for
each resource being considered.In
addition,utilities should consider fuel
transportation and electric transmission
facilities as resource options,taking into
account their value for making
additional purchases and sales,
accessing less costly resources in
remote locations,acquiring alternative
fuel supplies,and improving reliability.
Guideline 6:Conservation
6a Each utility should ensure that a Global Energy Inc.performed a conservation potential
conservation potential study is assessment study for our 2012 IRP.A discussion ofthe
conducted periodically for its entire study is included in Chapter 4.The full study document is
service territory,in Appendix 4.1.Avista incorporates a comprehensive
assessment ofthe potential for utility acquisition of energy-
efficiency resources into the regularly-scheduled Integrated
Resource Planning process.
6b To the extent that a utility controls the A discussion on the treatment of conservation programs is
level of funding for conservation included in Chapter 4 while selection methodology is
programs in its service territory,the documented in Chapter 6.The action plan details
utility should include in its action plan conservation targets,if any,as developed through the
all best cost/risk portfolio conservation operational business planning process.These targets are
resources for meeting projected updated annually,with the most current avoided costs.
resource needs,specifying annual Given the challenge of the low cost environment,current
savings targets.operational planning and program evaluation is still
underway and targets for Oregon have not yet been set.
6c To the extent that an outside party Not applicable.See the response for 6.b above.
administers conservation programs in a
utility’s service territory at a level of
funding that is beyond the utility’s
control,the utility should:1)determine
the amount of conservation resources in
the best cost/risk portfolio without
regard to any limits on funding of
conservation programs;and 2)identify
the preferred portfolio and action plan
consistent with the outside party’s
projection of conservation acquisition.
Guideline 7:Demand Response
7 Plans should evaluate demand response Avista has periodically evaluated conceptual approaches to
resources,including voluntary rate meeting capacity constraints using demand-response and
programs,on par with other options for similar voluntary programs.Technology,customer
meeting energy,capacity,and characteristics and cost issues are hurdles for developing
transmission needs (for electric utilities)effective programs.See Chapter 4 Demand Response
or gas supply and transportation needs section for more discussion.
(for natural gas utilities).
Guideline 8:Environmental Costs
8 Utilities should include,in their base-Avista’s current direct gas distribution system infrastructure
case analyses,the regulatory does not result in any C02,NOx,S02,or Hg emissions.
14 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
compliance costs they expect for C02,Upstream gas system infrastructure (pipelines,storage
NOx,S02,and Hg emissions.Utilities facilities,and gathering systems)do produce C02 emissions
should analyze the range of potential via compressors used to pressurize and move gas
C02 regulatory costs in Order No.93-throughout the system.The Environmental Externalities
695,from SO -$40 (1990$).In addition,discussion in Appendix 4.2 describes our analysis
utilities should perform sensitivity performed.See also the guidelines addendum reflecting
analysis on a range of reasonably revised guidance for environmental costs per Order 08-339.
possible cost adders for NOx,S02,and
Hg,if applicable.
Guideline 9:Direct Access Loads
9 An electric utility’s load-resource Not applicable to Avista’s gas utility operations.
balance should exclude customer loads
that are effectively committed to service
by an alternative electricity supplier.
Guideline 10:Multi-state utilities
10 Multi-state utilities should plan their The 2012 IRP conforms to the multi-state planning
generation and transmission systems,or approach.
gas supply and delivery,on an
integrated-system basis that achieves a
best cost/risk portfolio for all their retail
customers.
Guideline 11:Reliability
11 Electric utilities should analyze Avista’s storage and transport resources while planned
reliability within the risk modeling of around meeting a peak day planning standard,also provides
the actual portfolios being considered.opportunities to capture off season pricing while providing
Loss ofload probability,expected system flexibility to meet swing and base-load
planning reserve margin,and expected requirements.Diversity in our transport options enables at
and worst-case unserved energy should least dual fuel source options in event of a transport
be determined by year for top-disruption.For areas with only one fuel source option the
performing portfolios.Natural gas cost of duplicative infrastructure is not feasible relative to
utilities should analyze,on an integrated the risk of generally high reliability infrastructure.
basis,gas supply,transportation,and
storage,along with demand-side
resources,to reliably meet peak,swing,
and base-load system requirements.
Electric and natural gas utility plans
should demonstrate that the utility’s
chosen portfolio achieves its stated
reliability,cost and risk objectives.
Guideline 12:Distributed Generation
12 Electric utilities should evaluate Not applicable to Avista’s gas utility operations.
distributed
generation technologies on par with
other supply-side resources and should
consider,and quantify where possible,
the additional benefits of distributed
generation.
Guideline 13:Resource Acquisition
13a An electric utility should:identify its Not applicable to Avista’s gas utility operations.
proposed acquisition strategy for each
resource in its action plan;Assess the
advantages and disadvantages of
owning a resource instead of purchasing
power from another party;identify any
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 15
Benchmark Resources it plans to
consider in competitive bidding.
13b Natural gas utilities should either A discussion ofAvista’s procurement practices is detailed
describe in the IRP their bidding in Chapter 5.
practices for gas supply and
transportation,or provide a description
ofthose practices following IRP
acknowledgment.
Guideline 8:Environmental Costs
a.BASE CASE AND OTHER Avista’s current direct gas distribution system infrastructure
COMPLIANCE SCENARIOS:The does not result in any C02,NOx,S02,or Hg emissions.
utility should construct a base-case Upstream gas system infrastructure (pipelines,storage
scenario to reflect what it considers to facilities,and gathering systems)do produce CO2 emissions
be the most likely regulatory via compressors used to pressurize and move gas
compliance future for carbon dioxide throughout the system.
(CO2),nitrogen oxides,sulfur oxides,
and mercury emissions.The utility also The Environmental Externalities discussion in Appendix 4.2
should develop several compliance describes our process for addressing these costs.
scenarios ranging from the present CO2
regulatory level to the upper reaches of
credible proposals by governing
entities.Each compliance scenario
should include a time profile of CO2
compliance requirements.The utility
should identify whether the basis of
those requirements,or “costs”,would
be C02 taxes,a ban on certain types of
resources,or C02 caps (with or without
flexibility mechanisms such as
allowance or credit trading or a safety
valve).The analysis should recognize
significant and important upstream
emissions that would likely have a
significant impact on its resource
decisions.Each compliance scenario
should maintain logical consistency,to
the extent practicable,between the CO2
regulatory requirements and other key
inputs.
b.TESTING ALTERNATIVE The Environmental Externalities discussion in Appendix 4.2
PORTFOLIOS AGAINST THE describes our process for addressing these costs.
COMPLIANCE SCENARIOS:The
utility should estimate,under each of
the compliance scenarios,the present
value of revenue requirement (PVRR)
costs and risk measures,over at least 20
years,for a set ofreasonable alternative
portfolios from which the preferred
portfolio is selected.The utility should
incorporate end-effect considerations in
the analyses to allow for comparisons of
portfolios containing resources with
economic or physical lives that extend
beyond the planning period.The utility
should also modify projected lifetimes
16 II CHAPTER 2 II APPENDICES
as necessary to be consistent with the
compliance scenario under analysis.In
addition,the utility should include,if
material,sensitivity analyses on a range
of reasonably possible regulatory
futures for nitrogen oxides,sulfur
oxides,and mercury to further inform
the preferred portfolio selection.
2G12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 1
APPENDIX 3.1 II ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CUSTOMER COUNT FORECAST
INTRODUCTION
For over twenty five years,Avista has produced natural gas customer forecasts which assume there is a
direct relationship between economic growth and customer growth.This update of the Natural Gas
Integrated Resource Plan continues this tradition.It would come as no surprise to readers that other
utilities around the country use similar methods and procedures to produce customer forecasts.What
follows is a narrative description of the methodology.A verbal description was provided at the
Technical Advisory Committee meeting held in Portland,Oregon,on January 17,2012.
The Avista customer forecast is the primary driver of natural gas demand from firm natural gas
customers.The forecast is produced by staff in the Finance Department,Financial Planning and Analysis
group.These forecasts are produce annually in June of each calendar year and provide the basis for
revenue forecasts,demand forecasts,purchased gas adjustments and general rate cases.The company
employs the “one forecast”concept,wherein consistency across all parts of the business and regulatory
environment is synchronized.However,the company does from time to time update forecasts when there
is turbulence in the economy.This provides for flexibility as opposed to rigidity in terms of making good
decisions for customers during unusual times.It would be accurate to say that between 2007 and 2010 the
economy was moving downward as the recession evolved and the impacts on near term projections of
customer growth were significant.The company updated their forecasts more frequently during this
period,but now that the economy has settled down into a less volatile state forecast updates have returned
to an annual update cycle.The forecast presented in this document was produced in June 2011 and relied
on economic forecasts and actual customer data from May 2011.At this writing,an update to the
customer forecast is being prepared for completion in June 2012.Early indications suggest the new
forecast will not have material short term or long term adjustments from the base case.
In order to stress test the demand forecast,alternative customer forecasts have been prepared using
publically available data from reliable sources.For at least the last five company natural gas plans,Avista
has relied on high and low population forecasts from the State of Washington,Office of Financial
Management,to provide alternative trajectories of customer growth.The principal economic drivers for
the base case customer forecast are purchased from IllS Global Insight,Inc.As in previous plans,
Avista’s contract with Global Insight provides the company with a twenty five year forecast of economic
drivers in the three metropolitan areas where we provide the bulk of our natural gas services (Spokane,
Coeur d’Alene and Medford.)Avista also purchases limited economic forecasts from Global Insight on
the other counties where we provide natural gas service.However,we rely on these metro-area forecasts
as the primary drivers of customer forecasts in our Washington,Idaho and Oregon service areas.
What follows in order are discussions of the county-level forecasts,customer regressions and customer
forecasts,with the final section addressing the alternative higher and lower forecasts.
SERVICE AREA ECONOMY
The service area economy in Washington includes ten mostly rural agriculture and resource extraction
counties plus Spokane County,the regional metropolitan statistical area (MSA).Spokane County
2 II CHAPTER3 II APPENDICES
(hereinafter referred to as Spokane)has a well diversified economy dominated by manufacturing,health
care,retail and government.Spokane as well is a regional banking center and has a number of
professional services firms (like architecture,engineering and information).One of the distinguishing
characteristics of the company’s Washington service area is the location of Washington State University
roughly 75 miles south of downtown Spokane.But Spokane does have a large and growing public and
private higher education sector.As the primary employment center for eastern Washington and northern
Idaho,Spokane is also the largest area of customers and customer growth.In both 2010 and 2011,the
Spokane area accounted for 45 percent of system customer growth,while Coeur d’Alene averaged 16
percent and Medford 14 percent.The remaining 25 percent of customer growth was widely spread
between other counties in Washington,Idaho and Oregon.Subsequent paragraphs will detail information
for Coeur d’Alene and Medford.
The service area in rural northern idaho is similar to Washington but does substitute forestry for
agriculture and Kootenai County (Coeur d’Alene)for Spokane.The metro area of Coeur d’Alene has
been one of the faster growing parts of our service area and during the last census decade was one of the
fastest growing counties in Idaho.Coeur d’Alene has an economic base that includes light manufacturing,
health care and government services while its hospitality sector is a significant contributor to jobs.The
remaining six counties have several notable large employers in the pulp and paper,mining and smelting
and lumber and wood product industries.While Spokane has a very large higher education sector,Coeur
d’Alene does not.In Idaho higher education is concentrated at the University of Idaho in Moscow,Idaho,
and Lewis and Clark State in Lewiston,Idaho.
The company’s Oregon service territory is made up of the urban areas of five counties,four of which are
in southwestern Oregon and one small county in northeastern Oregon.Jackson County (with Medford as
the largest city)is a metropolitan statistical area.Josephine County lies to the west of Jackson County and
together the two counties,tied together by Interstate 5,comprise the Medford division of Avista.Due
north of Josephine County is Douglas County,but the cities of Roseburg,Green,Winston,Sutherlin and
Myrtle Creek lie in a different climate zone from Medford and the service area division of Roseburg is
forecasted separately.The other geographic separation of the Oregon region occurs with Klamath County
which lies due east of Jackson County but is separated by the Cascade mountain range not to mention
being a few thousand feet higher elevation.For example,the Medford airport is at 1,335’elevation,while
Klamath Falls airport is at 4,095’elevation.Due to the geographic separation and elevation differences,
Klamath Falls and surrounding cities have a much colder climate than Medford and Roseburg.In order to
accurately forecast customer demand,the Klamath Falls division is forecast separately.Last but not least,
Union County (La Grande)is on Interstate 84 about 50 miles southeast of Pendleton,Oregon,represents
less than 2 percent of customer growth but because of its climate and location isolation is forecast
separately.Of the five counties,Jackson,Klamath Falls and La Grande are higher education centers with
Southern Oregon,Oregon Institute of Technology and Eastern Oregon universities,respectively,located
therein.With over 60 percent of Oregon customer growth,the Medford division of the company gets
disproportionate scrutiny,but each of the four divisions employ the same customer forecast methodology.
The slides from Technical Advisory Committee #1 are available online.A brief summary of the forecasts
follows.As mentioned previously,the company purchases county level forecasts from Global Insight.
The charts provide a long term perspective,with historical data from 1995 to 2010 and forecasts from
2011 to 2035.Overall,it is clear from the slides that all three metro areas were briefly impacted by the
brief recession in 2001 and were significantly impacted by the so-called “Great Recession”which began
in 2007 and ended in 2009.Lackluster employment growth and slowly declining unemployment rates
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 3
have been the recent story.Global Insight forecasts a mild recovery in jobs begins during 2012 and gains
steam in the 2013 to 2015 time period before settling back to its long term growth.
0%—----—----1Liioi0aa.a o 0aaioa
,-I ,-l -
Chart F.1
Spo-Emp(%)‘Kot-Emp(%)Med-Em p(%
It is clear from the chart above that employment growth rates which averaged over two percent in the
prior fifteen years will be below two percent longer term in the next twenty-five years.
Global Insight largely drives their population forecast from their employment forecast although they do
take into account changes in higher education enrollment and retirement and other migration impacts.The
annual rates of growth of population in the three metro areas are shown on the following chart.
8%
6%
4%
2%
-2%
-4%..
m Lfl (.0 r-co ci -‘t m (.0 1%ci (ii(.4 .-(,.4 (.4 ,r.J N N N N N N N N m m en en en00000000000000000000000NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN (N
-8%
4 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Chart F.2
—Spo-Pop(%)—‘Kot-Pop(%)—Med-Pop(%)
Population growth rates have been highest in Kootenai County,Idaho as the “bedroom”effect of cross
border commuting has been observed over the years.After a modest pause in population growth due to
issues with labor mobility and recession —induced impacts,population growth is expected to rebound
modestly consistent with the jobs forecast.
The population forecast becomes the key driver for the building permit forecasts for the three metro areas.
After some recession induced absorption of foreclosures get worked out of the housing market and
consistent with our observations and discussions locally with homebuilders and real estate professionals,
the housing market forecasts shows a modest rebound.
0%----—--------------------———-----.---------.—----—.-------------.-—..-
In iD 1%01 C In 1%C ‘-I f4 m Lfl O 00 0I C I I•4 m In D I 00 O C 1 t4 In
C C C C C C C C C C .-I .-I .--I .-4 .-I -4 ,-I ,-(e.l (N (N r’l (N (N (N (N (N m tfl en en
a.,a a a a c C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C
(N (N (N (N (N IN (N (N (N IN (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N IN (N (N (N (N (N (N (N (N
2O12AVSTANATURALGASRP II 5
Chart F.3
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
fl D r..N N N N N N N N N N C .-N N N N N N Q C ,-N N N N N N N C .-N N N NNocaaNCCCCCNCCN-.N -.N .-4 N N N 0.1 N 0.1 N 0.4 N N N 0.1 N N N N N N NNQCaNCNCCCCCCCCC0CC0CC0CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCNNNNN0.4 N 0.4 N 04 N N N N N N N N N 0.4 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 0.4
—Spokane Housing Starts,Total Private (SAAR)
N44Kootenai Housing Starts,Total Private (SAAR)
Medford Housing Starts,Total Private (SAAR)
As we understand it,Global Insight has assumed banks and other financial institutions are expected to be
more disciplined in lending practices such that the longer range forecasts do not include more housing
bubbles or popped bubbles like we have observed in the recent history.Although we remain skeptical
about this notion that housing cycles will be tempered,we do believe that these fundamentals based
forecasts of housing are appropriate for long term natural gas customer forecasting.We have one
additional observation about chart F.3;the apparent amplified rebound in Spokane housing permits is
impacted by a large number of multi-family units being built to satisf’the growing higher education
sector in Spokane which is largely absent in Coeur d’Alene.Although Medford has several higher
education institutions,the growth there is expected to be muted due to state government policies and
spending plans.
The final feature of economic data used to inform the customer forecast comes to us from using the State
of Washington Office of Financial Management.In Washington,OFM’s population forecasting division
is the agency by law that produces population estimates for the Growth Management Act.At the time of
the production of this Plan,OFM had produced a high,medium and low population forecast for Spokane
County in 2007.At the 1st Technical Advisory Committee,we showed the members a table of population
forecasts with these forecasts for 2010-2030.The high forecast in 2030 had 1.6 times the population
growth of the medium forecast,and the low forecast during the same period had 0.6 times the population
growth of the medium forecast.We proposed applying these ratios of population variation to our expected
growth in residential customers because the logic of the building permit forecast ties to population
6 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
growth.We agreed it was a shortcut and represented to the committee this approach was reasonable and
logical.We did not record any disagreement and have proceeded with this approach to scenarios.
CUSTOMER FORECAST REGRESSIONS
The process of customer forecasting employs regression analysis to utilize forecasts of building permits to
produce forecasts of residential customer additions.We also use regression analysis to produce
commercial customer additions as a function of residential customer additions.Indirectly,the logic and
rationale is borrowed from Global Insight as follows.Employment drives population,population drives
building permits,building permits drive residential customer growth,and residential customer growth
drives commercial customer growth.Taking this full circle,employees have to work somewhere,and they
largely work in commercial buildings.The forecasts for industrial employment are stable,and therefore
we forecast firm industrial customers to grow slowly into the future.Important also is that firm industrial
customers (and the therms they consume)are a very small portion of total firm sales.
CUSTOMER FORECASTS USED BY SENDOUT®
The company produces customer forecasts used by Sendout®in the following format.Monthly customer
forecasts for residential,firm commercial and firm industrial for the combined Washingtonlldaho service
areas and the same customer forecasts for Oregon broken out by the four divisions,namely Medford,
Roseburg,Kiamath Falls and La Grande.
An annual summary for the Washington/Idaho region and for Oregon is shown in the table below.The
term CGR is the compound growth rate from 2011-2031.
Table F.1
Residential Commercial Industrial
Customers Customers Customerr
2006 185.897 20,884 247
2007 190,433 21,350 242
2008 194,316 21,844 238
2009 196,920 22,162 235
2010 198,604 22,344 230
2011 200,451 22,466 225
2012 203,404 22,621 228
2013 207,309 22,997 229
2014 211,420 23,442 231
2015 215,536 23,908 235
2016 219,611 24,370 237
2017 223,624 24,826 239
2018 227.540 25.267 241
2019 231,424 25,705 243
2020 235,300 26,141 244
2021 239.151 26.569 247
2022 243,002 26.998 248
2023 246,923 27.431 250
2024 250,835 27.864 251
2025 254,765 28,298 255
2026 258,699 28.732 256
2027 262,615 29,163 258
2028 266,515 29,593 259
2029 270,407 30,022 262
2030 274.312 30,446 263
2031 278,218 30,872 266
2032 282,115 31,295 267
2033 266.021 31,719 270
2034 289,943 32,145 271
2035 293.886 32,572 273
2OyrCGR2O11-31 1.65%1.60%0.84%
Table F.2
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 7
Residential Commercial IndustrialResidentialResidentialKlamathResidentialCommercialCommercialKlamathCommercialIndustrialIndustrialKiamath IndustrialMedfordRoseburqFallsl.a Grande Medford Roseburg Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg Falls l.a Grande
2006 49002 12.726 13,424 6.296 6.263 2,134 1.585 878 1 2 0 3200749.833 12.990 13.777 6.382 6.367 2.125 1,612 873 9 2 5 3200850.239 13.037 13.859 6.441 6.427 2.120 1.624 896 10 2 5 3200950.381 13054 13,863 6,449 6,386 2,136 1,636 895 14 2 6 2201050.682 13,077 13,886 6,473 6,433 2,124 1,635 995 13 2 7 2201150,957 13.132 13,965 6.493 6.463 2.129 1.650 885 15 3 7 1201251.282 13.250 14.090 6.528 6,513 2.149 1.670 895 15 3 7 1201352.182 13,475 14,265 6,578 6.563 2,174 1.695 910 15 3 7 1201453,432 13,775 14,515 6,628 6.643 2,204 1.725 925 15 3 7 1201554,732 14.100 14,790 6,678 6,763 2.234 1,755 945 16 3 7 1201656.027 14,434 15,059 6.737 6,886 2.258 1,780 958 16 3 7 1201757.327 14.745 15.312 6.791 7,009 2.281 1.804 970 16 3 7 1201858,616 15,034 15.553 6,842 7,131 2.303 1.827 981 16 3 7 1201959,882 15,323 15,794 6.891 7.251 2.324 1,849 992 16 3 7 1202061,139 15,614 15,034 6,940 7,369 2,346 1.972 1,002 17 3 7 1202162,374 15,902 16,271 6.988 7.486 2,367 1,894 1,013 17 3 7 1202263.608 16.189 16,506 7,036 7,603 2.388 1,916 1,023 17 3 7 1202364.875 16,478 16,741 7.083 7,723 2,410 1,939 1,034 17 3 7 1202466,137 16,771 16,977 7,130 7.842 2.431 1.961 1.044 17 3 7 1202667.420 17,068 17.214 7.176 7,964 2,453 1.983 1.054 18 3 7 1202568,698 17.358 17.452 7.223 8 085 2,475 2,006 1 064 18 3 7 1202769,937 17,675 17.687 7.271 8.202 2,498 2,028 1,075 18 3 7 1202871.120 17,906 17.919 7.321 8,314 2,515 2,050 1,086 18 3 7 1202972,271 18,133 18,147 7,373 8,423 2.532 2.071 1.097 18 3 7 1203073,426 18,361 18,375 7.424 8.532 2.549 2.093 1,108 19 3 7 1203174,569 18,590 18.602 7,475 8.640 2,566 2.114 1.119 19 3 7 1203275,684 18.814 18.828 7.525 8,746 2.583 2,135 1,131 19 3 7 1203376,786 19,042 19,056 7,576 8,850 2.599 2,157 1,142 19 3 7 1203477.893 19,272 19,285 7,627 8,955 2.616 2,178 1,153 19 3 7 1203579,008 19.500 19,513 7.678 9.060 2.633 2,200 1.164 19 3 7 1
20 yr COR 2011-2031 1.93%1 75%1 44%0 71%1 45%094%1 25%1 18%1.26%014%0 00%-1.3014
8 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
Jan-12 202,574 22,501
Feb-12 202,563 22,523
Mar-12 202,688 22,547
Apr-12 202,517 22,561
May-12 202,633 22,564
Jun-12 202,521 22,612
Jul-12 202,830 22,623
Aug-12 203,492 22,641
Sep-12 203,900 22,676
Oct-12 204,313 22,699
Nov-12 204,999 22,735
Dec-12 205,820 22,764
Jan-13 206,379 22,812
Feb-13 206,368 22,839
Mar-13 206,493 22,868
Apr-13 206,322 22,902
May-13 206,538 22,930
Jun-13 206,426 22,993
Jul-13 206,735 23,019
Aug-13 207,397 23,042
Sep-13 207,905 23,092
Oct-13 208,318 23,120
Nov-13 209,004 23,156
Dec-13 209,825 23,185
Jan-14 210,490 23,257
Feb-14 210,479 23,284
Mar-14 210,604 23313
Apr-14 210,433 23,347
May-14 210,649 23,375
Jun-14 210,537 23,438
Jul-14 210,846 23,464
Aug-14 211,508 23,487
Sep-14 212,016 23,537
Oct-14 212,429 23,565
Nov-14 213,115 23,601
Dec-14 213,936 23,630
Jan-15 214,606 23,723
Feb-15 214,595 23,750
Mar-15 214,720 23,779
Apr-15 214,549 23,813
May-15 214,765 23,841
Jun-15 214,653 23,904
Jul-15 214,962 23,930
Aug-15 215,624 23,953
Sep-15 216,132 24,003
Oct-15 216,545 24,031
Nov-15 217,231 24,067
Dec-15 218,052 24,096
Jan-16 218,664 24,182
Feb-16 218,652 24,210
228
227
227
227
227
227
228
228
228
228
228
228
229
228
228
228
228
228
229
229
229
229
229
229
232
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
235
234
234
234
234
234
235
235
235
235
235
235
237
236
Washington and Idaho -
High Growth
203,572 22,510
203,555 22,545
203,755 22,584
203,481 22,606
203,667 22,611
203,488 22,688
203,982 22,705
205,041 22,734
205,694 22,790
206,355 22,827
207,452 22,884
208,766 22,931
209,660 23,008
209,643 23,051
209,843 23,097
209,569 23,152
209,915 23,196
209,736 23,297
210,230 23,339
211,289 23,376
212,102 23,456
212,763 23,500
213,860 23,558
215,174 23,604
216,238 23,720
216,220 23,763
216,420 23809
216,147 23,864
216,492 23,908
216,313 24,009
216,808 24,051
217,867 24,088
218,680 24,168
219,340 24,212
220,438 24,270
221,752 24,316
222,824 24,465
222,806 24,508
223,006 24,555
222,732 24,609
223,078 24,654
222,899 24,755
223,393 24,796
224,452 24,833
225,265 24,913
225,926 24,958
227,024 25,016
228,337 25,062
229,316 25,200
229,298 25,244
Washington and Idaho -
Low Growth
201,908 22,495
201,902 22,508
201,977 22,523
201,874 22,531
201,944 22,533
201,877 22,562
202,062 22,568
202,459 22,579
202,704 22,600
202,952 22,614
203,363 22,635
203,856 22,653
204,191 22,682
204,185 22,698
204,260 22,715
204,157 22,736
204,287 22,752
204,220 22,790
204,405 22,806
204,802 22,820
205,107 22,850
205,355 22,866
205,766 22,888
206,259 22,905
206,658 22,949
206,651 22,965
206726 22,982
206,624 23,003
206,753 23,019
206,686 23,057
206,872 23,073
207,269 23,087
207,574 23,117
207,821 23,133
208,233 23,155
208,726 23,172
209,128 23,228
209,121 23,244
209,196 23,262
209,093 23,282
209,223 23,299
209,156 23,337
209341 23,352
209,738 23,366
210,043 23,396
210,291 23,413
210,703 23,435
211,195 23,452
211,562 23,504
211,555 23,620
228
227
227
227
227
227
228
228
228
228
228
228
229
228
228
228
228
228
229
229
229
229
229
229
232
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
235
234
234
234
234
234
235
235
235
235
235
235
237
236
Washington and Idaho.
Expected Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
228
227
227
227
227
227
228
228
228
228
228
228
229
228
228
228
228
228
229
229
229
229
229
229
232
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
235
234
234
234
234
234
235
235
235
235
235
235
237
236
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 9
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho -Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial IndustrialCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomers
Mar-16 218,780 24,239 236 229,502 25,291 236 211,632 23,538 236
Apr-16 218,606 24,274 236 229,223 25,347 236 211,527 23,559 236
May-16 218,826 24,303 236 229,575 25,393 236 211,659 23,576 236
Jun-16 218,712 24,367 236 229,393 25,495 236 211,591 23,614 236
Jul-16 219,026 24,393 237 229,896 25,538 237 211,780 23,630 237
Aug-16 219,701 24,417 237 230,975 25,575 237 212,185 23,644 237
Sep-16 220,219 24,468 237 231,804 25,657 237 212,495 23,675 237
Oct-16 220,639 24,496 237 232,477 25,702 237 212,748 23,692 237
Nov-16 221,338 24,533 237 233,595 25,761 237 213,167 23,714 237
Dec-16 222,175 24,563 237 234,934 25,808 237 213,669 23,732 237
Jan-17 222,659 24,634 239 235,708 25,923 239 213,959 23775 239
Feb-17 222,647 24662 238 235,689 25,968 238 213,952 23792 238
Mar-17 222,777 24,693 238 235,897 26,016 238 214,030 23,810 238
Apr-17 222,599 24,728 238 235,613 26,073 238 213,924 23,831 238
May-17 222,823 24,757 238 235,972 26.119 238 214,058 23.849 238
Jun-17 222,707 24,822 238 235,786 26,224 238 213,988 23,888 238
Jul-17 223,028 24,849 239 236,299 26,267 239 214,181 23,904 239
Aug-17 223,715 24,873 239 237,398 26.306 239 214,593 23,918 239
Sep-17 224,242 24,925 239 238,241 26,389 239 214,909 23,949 239
Oct-17 224,670 24,954 239 238,926 26,435 239 215,166 23,967 239
Nov-17 225,382 24,992 239 240,065 26,495 239 215,593 23,989 239
Dec-17 226,234 25.022 239 241.428 26,543 239 216,104 24,007 239
Jan-18 226,558 25,072 241 241,946 26.623 241 216.299 24,038 241
Feb-18 226,546 25,100 240 241,928 26,669 240 216,292 24,055 240
Mar-18 226,678 25,131 240 242,139 26,718 240 216.371 24,073 240
Apr-18 226,498 25,167 240 241,850 26,776 240 216,263 24,095 240
May-18 226,726 25,197 240 242,215 26.823 240 216.399 24,112 240
Jun-18 226,607 25,263 240 242,026 26,930 240 216,328 24,152 240
Jul-18 226,934 25,291 241 242,548 26,974 241 216,524 24,169 241
Aug-18 227,632 25,315 241 243,666 27,012 241 216,943 24,183 241
Sep-18 228,169 25,368 241 244,524 27,097 241 217,265 24,215 241
Oct-18 228,605 25,397 241 245,222 27,144 241 217,527 24,233 241
Nov-18 229,329 25,435 241 246,380 27,205 241 217,961 24,256 241
Dec-18 230,196 25,466 241 247,767 27,254 241 218,481 24,274 241
Jan-19 230,425 25,507 243 248,134 27,319 243 218,619 24.298 243
Feb-19 230,413 25,536 242 248,115 27,366 242 218,612 24,316 242
Mar-19 230,547 25,567 242 248,330 27,415 242 218,692 24.335 242
Apr-19 230,364 25,603 242 248,036 27,474 242 218,582 24,356 242
May-19 230,596 25,634 242 248,407 27,522 242 218,721 24,375 242
Jun-19 230,475 25,701 242 248,215 27.630 242 218,649 24,415 242
Jul-19 230.807 25,729 243 248,745 27,675 243 218,848 24,432 243
Aug-19 231,518 25,754 243 249,883 27,715 243 219,275 24,447 243
Sep-19 232.063 25,808 243 250,755 27,801 243 219,602 24,479 243
Oct-19 232,507 25,838 243 251,465 27,849 243 219,868 24,497 243
Nov-19 233,243 25,877 243 252,643 27,911 243 220,310 24,520 243
Dec-19 234,125 25,908 243 254.054 27,961 243 220,839 24,539 243
Jan-20 234,284 25,939 244 254,309 28,011 244 220,935 24,558 244
Feb-20 234,272 25,969 243 254,290 28,058 243 220,927 24,576 243
Mar-20 234,409 26,000 243 254,508 28.109 243 221,009 24,595 243
Apr-20 234.222 26,038 243 254,210 28,169 243 220.897 24,617 243
10 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
May-20 234,458 26,068 243 254,587 28,218 243 221,039 24,635 243
Jun-20 234,336 26,137 243 254,391 28,328 243 220,965 24,677 243
Jul-20 234,673 26,166 244 254,931 28,373 244 221,168 24,694 244
Aug-20 235,396 26,191 244 256,087 28,414 244 221,601 24,709 244
Sep-20 235,950 26,245 244 256,975 28,501 244 221,934 24,742 244
Oct-20 236,401 26,276 244 257,696 28,550 244 222,205 24,760 244
Nov-20 237,150 26,315 244 258,894 28,613 244 222,654 24,784 244
Dec-20 238,046 26,347 244 260,328 28,664 244 223,192 24,803 244
Jan-21 238,119 26,364 247 260,444 28,691 247 223,235 24,813 247
Feb-21 238,106 26,394 246 260,424 28,739 246 223,228 24,831 246
Mar-21 238,245 26,426 246 260,646 28,791 246 223,311 24,850 246
Apr-21 238,055 26464 246 260,343 28851 246 223,197 24873 246
May-21 238,295 26,495 246 260,726 28,901 246 223,341 24892 246
Jun-21 238,171 26565 246 260,527 29013 246 223,266 24,934 246
Jul-21 238,514 26,594 247 261,076 29,059 247 223,472 24,951 247
Aug-21 239,248 26,620 247 262,251 29,100 247 223,913 24,966 247
Sep-21 239,812 26,675 247 263,153 29,189 247 224,251 25,000 247
Oct-21 240,270 26,706 247 263,886 29,239 247 224,526 25,018 247
Nov-21 241,031 26,746 247 265,104 29,303 247 224,983 25,042 247
Dec-21 241,942 26,779 247 266,561 29,354 247 225,529 25,062 247
Jan-22 241,953 26,790 248 266,579 29,372 248 225,536 25,068 248
Feb-22 241,941 26,820 247 266,559 29,420 247 225,529 25,086 247
Mar-22 242,082 26,853 247 266,785 29473 247 225,613 25,106 247
Apr-22 241,889 26,891 247 266,477 29,534 247 225,497 25,129 247
May-22 242,133 26,923 247 266,866 29,585 247 225,644 25,148 247
Jun-22 242,006 26,994 247 266,664 29699 247 225,568 25,191 247
Jul-22 242,355 27,023 248 267,222 29,746 248 225,777 25,208 248
Aug-22 243,101 27,049 248 268,416 29,787 248 226,225 25,224 248
Sep-22 243,674 27,106 248 269,332 29,878 248 226,568 25,258 248
Oct-22 244,139 27,137 248 270,077 29,928 248 226,848 25,277 248
Nov-22 244,913 27,178 248 271,315 29,993 248 227,312 25,301 248
Dec-22 245,838 27,211 248 272,796 30,046 248 227,867 25,321 248
Jan-23 245,857 27,220 250 272,825 30,060 250 227,878 25,326 250
Feb-23 245,844 27,251 249 272,805 30,110 249 227,871 25,345 249
Mar-23 245,988 27.284 249 273,034 30,163 249 227,957 25,365 249
Apr-23 245,792 27,323 249 272,721 30,225 249 227,839 25,388 249
May-23 246,039 27,355 249 273,117 30,277 249 227,987 25,407 249
Jun-23 245,911 27,427 249 272,911 30,392 249 227,910 25,451 249
Jul-23 246,265 27,457 250 273,478 30,440 250 228,123 25,469 250
Aug-23 247,023 27,484 250 274,691 30,482 250 228,578 25,485 250
Sep-23 247,605 27,541 250 275,622 30,574 250 228,927 25519 250
Oct-23 248,078 27,573 250 276,379 30,625 250 229,211 25.538 250
Nov-23 248,864 27,614 250 277,637 30,692 250 229,683 25,563 250
Dec-23 249,805 27,648 250 279,142 30,745 250 230,247 25,583 250
Jan-24 249,752 27,649 251 279,058 30,747 251 230,215 25,584 251
Feb-24 249,739 27,680 250 279,037 30,797 250 230,208 25,603 250
Mar-24 249,885 27,714 250 279,270 30,851 250 230,295 25,623 250
Apr-24 249,686 27,754 250 278,951 30,914 250 230,176 25,647 250
May-24 249,937 27,786 250 279,354 30,967 250 230,326 25,666 250
Jun-24 249,807 27,860 250 279,145 31,084 250 230,248 25,710 250
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 11
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
Washington and Idaho -
Expected Growth
Jul-24 250,167 27,890
Aug-24 250,937 27,917
Sep-24 251,528 27,975
Oct-24 252,009 28,008
Nov-24 252,807 28,050
Dec-24 253,763 28,084
Jan-25 253,666 28,080
Feb-25 253,653 28,112
Mar-25 253,801 28,146
Apr-25 253,599 28,186
May-25 253,854 28,220
Jun-25 253,722 28,294
Jul-25 254,087 28,325
Aug-25 254,869 28,352
Sep-25 255,470 28,411
Oct-25 255,958 28,445
Nov-25 256,769 28,487
Dec-25 257,739 28,521
Jan-26 257,583 28,510
Feb-26 257,570 28,542
Mar-26 257,720 28,577
Apr-26 257,515 28,618
May-26 257,774 28,652
Jun-26 257,639 28,727
Jul-26 258,010 28,759
Aug-26 258,805 28,786
Sep-26 259,415 28,846
Oct-26 259,910 28,880
Nov-26 260,734 28923
Dec-26 261,719 28,958
Jan-27 261,482 28,938
Feb-27 261,468 28,971
Mar-27 261,621 29006
Apr-27 261,412 29,048
May-27 261,676 29,082
Jun-27 261,539 29,159
Jul-27 261,916 29.190
Aug-27 262,722 29,218
Sep-27 263,341 29,279
Oct-27 263,844 29,313
Nov-27 264,680 29,357
Dec-27 265,681 29,393
Jan-28 265,365 29,365
Feb-28 265,351 29,398
Mar-28 265,506 29,434
Apr-28 265,294 29,476
May-28 265,561 29,511
Jun-28 265,423 29.589
Jul-28 265,805 29,621
Auq-28 266,624 29,650
Washington and Idaho -
High Growth
279.720 31,133
280,953 31,175
281,899 31,269
282,668 31,321
283,945 31.388
285,474 31,442
285,320 31,436
285,299 31487
285,535 31,542
285,212 31,607
285.620 31,660
285,409 31,779
285,993 31,828
287,245 31,872
288,206 31967
288,987 32.020
290,284 32,088
291,837 32,143
291587 32,124
291,566 32,176
291,806 32,232
291,477 32,297
291.892 32,351
291.677 32,472
292,270 32,522
293,542 32,567
294,517 32,663
295,310 32,717
296,628 32,786
298,204 32842
297,825 32,809
297,803 32,862
298,047 32,918
297.714 32,984
298,135 33,039
297,917 33,162
298.519 33,213
299,809 33,258
300,800 33,355
301,605 33,410
302,942 33,480
304,543 33,537
304,038 33,492
304,016 33,546
304.263 33,603
303,925 33.670
304,352 33,726
304.131 33,851
304,742 33,902
306,052 33,948
Washington and Idaho -
Low Growth
251 230,464 25,728
251 230,926 25,745
251 231,281 25,780
251 231,569 25,799
251 232,048 25,824
251 232,622 25,845
255 232,564 25,842
254 232,556 25,862
254 232,644 25,882
254 232,523 25,906
254 232,676 25,926
254 232,597 25,971
255 232,816 25,989
255 233,286 26,006
255 233,646 26,041
255 233,939 26,061
255 234,425 26,087
255 235,008 26,107
256 234,914 26,100
255 234,906 26,120
255 234,996 26,141
255 234,873 26,165
235,028 26,185
255 234.948 26,231
256 235,170 26,250
256 235,647 26,266
256 236,013 26,302
256 236,310 26,322
256 236,804 26,348
256 237,395 26.369
258 237,253 26,357
257 237.245 26,377
257 237,336 26,398
257 237,211 26,423
257 237,369 26,443
257 237,287 26,490
258 237,513 26,509
258 237,997 26,525
258 238,369 26,562
258 238,671 26,582
258 239,172 26,609
258 239,772 26,630
259 239,583 26,613
258 239,575 26,633
258 239,667 26,655
258 239,541 26,680
258 239,701 26,701
258 239,618 26,748
259 239,847 26,767
259 240,338 26,784
251
251
251
251
251
251
255
254
254
254
254
254
255
255
255
255
255
255
256
255
255
255
255
255
256
256
256
256
256
256
258
257
257
257
257
257
258
258
258
258
258
258
259
258
258
258
258
258
259
259
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial IndustrialCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomer
251
251
251
251
251
251
255
254
254
254
254
254
255
255
255
255
255
255
256
255
255
255
255
255
256
256
256
256
256
256
258
257
257
257
257
257
258
258
258
258
258
258
259
258
258
258
258
258
259
259
12 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
Washington and Idaho Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho-
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customer
Sep-28 267252 29,711 259 307,057 34,047 259 240,715 26,821 259
Oct-28 267,762 29,746 259 307,874 34,102 259 241,021 26,842 259
Nov-28 268,611 29,791 259 309,231 34,173 259 241,530 26,869 259
Dec-28 269,626 29,827 259 310,855 34,231 259 242,140 26,890 259
Jan-29 269,240 29,790 262 310,237 34,172 262 241,908 26,868 262
Feb-29 269,226 29,824 261 310,215 34,227 261 241,900 26,889 261
Mar-29 269,383 29,860 261 310,466 34,285 261 241,994 26,911 261
Apr-29 269,168 29,903 261 310,123 34,353 261 241,865 26,936 261
May-29 269,439 29,938 261 310,557 34,409 261 242,027 26,957 261
Jun-29 269,299 30,017 261 310,332 34,536 261 241,943 27,005 261
Jul-29 269,686 30,050 262 310,952 34,588 262 242,176 27,024 262
Aug-29 270,517 30,079 262 312,281 34,634 262 242,674 27,042 262
Sep-29 271,154 30,142 262 313,301 34,735 262 243,056 27,079 262
Oct-29 271,672 30,177 262 314,130 34,791 262 243,367 27,100 262
Nov-29 272,533 30,222 262 315,507 34,863 262 243,884 27,128 262
Dec-29 273,563 30,258 262 317,155 34,922 262 244,502 27,149 262
Jan-30 273,128 30,211 263 316,459 34,846 263 244,241 27,121 263
Feb-30 273,114 30,246 262 316,436 34,901 262 244,232 27,142 262
Mar-30 273,273 30,283 262 316,691 34,961 262 244,328 27,164 262
Apr-30 273,055 30,326 262 316,343 35,030 262 244,197 27190 262
May-30 273,330 30,362 262 316,783 35,087 262 244,362 27,211 262
Jun-30 273,188 30,442 262 316,554 35,215 262 244,277 27,259 262
Jul-30 273,581 30,475 263 317,184 35,268 263 244,513 27,279 263
Aug-30 274,424 30,504 263 318,532 35,315 263 245,018 27,297 263
Sep-30 275,070 30,568 263 319,566 35,417 263 245,406 27,335 263
Oct-30 275,596 30,604 263 320,407 35,474 263 245,721 27,357 263
Nov-30 276,469 30,649 263 321,804 35,547 263 246,245 27,384 263
Dec-30 277,514 30,686 263 323,476 35,606 263 246,872 27,406 263
Jan-31 277,018 30,633 266 322,682 35,522 266 246,575 27,374 266
Feb-31 277,004 30,668 265 322,660 35,578 265 246,566 27,395 265
Mar-31 277,165 30,706 265 322,918 35,638 265 246,663 27,418 265
Apr-31 276,944 30,750 265 322,565 35,708 265 246,530 27,444 265
May-31 277,223 30,786 265 323,011 35,766 265 246,698 27,466 265
Jun-31 277,078 30,867 265 322,779 35,896 265 246,611 27,515 265
Jul-31 277,477 30,901 266 323,418 35,950 266 246,850 27,535 266
Aug-31 278,332 30,930 266 324,785 35,997 266 247,363 27,553 266
Sep-31 278,988 30,995 266 325,834 36,100 266 247,757 27,591 266
Oct-31 279,521 31,031 266 326,687 36,158 266 248,076 27,613 266
Nov-31 280,406 31,078 266 328,104 36,233 266 248,608 27,641 266
Dec-31 281,466 31,115 266 329,799 36,293 266 249,244 27,663 266
Jan-32 280,897 31,053 267 328,890 36,194 267 248,902 27,626 267
Feb-32 280,883 31,089 266 328,867 36,251 266 248,894 27,648 266
Mar-32 281,047 31,127 266 329,129 36,311 266 248,992 27,670 266
Apr-32 280,823 31,171 266 328,771 36,382 266 248,858 27,697 266
May-32 281,106 31,208 266 329,223 36,441 266 249,027 27,719 266
Jun-32 280,959 31,290 266 328,988 36,573 266 248,939 27,769 266
Jul-32 281,363 31,324 267 329,635 36,628 267 249,182 27,789 267
Aug-32 282,230 31,355 267 331,022 36,676 267 249,702 27,807 267
Sep-32 282,895 31,420 267 332,086 36,780 267 250,101 27,846 267
Oct-32 283.435 31.457 267 332,951 36.839 267 250,425 27,868 267
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 13
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho -Washington and Idaho -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Nov-32 284,333 31,504 267 334,387 36,914 267 250,964 27,897 267
Dec-32 285408 31,542 267 336,107 36975 267 251,609 27,919 267
Jan-33 284,787 31,474 270 335,113 36,867 270 251,236 27,879 270
Feb-33 284,772 31,510 269 335,090 36,924 269 251,227 27,900 269
Mar-33 284,938 31,548 269 335,355 36,986 269 251,327 27,923 269
Apr-33 284,711 31,593 269 334,992 37,058 269 251,191 27,950 269
May-33 284,998 31,631 269 335,451 37,111 269 251,363 27,973 269
Jun-33 284,849 31,714 269 335,213 37,251 269 251,274 28,023 269
Jul-33 285,259 31,749 270 335,869 37,306 270 251,520 28,044 270
Aug-33 286,138 31,779 270 337,274 37,355 270 252,047 28,062 270
Sep-33 286,812 31,846 270 338,353 37461 270 252,451 28,102 270
Oct-33 287,360 31,883 270 339,230 37,521 270 252,780 28,124 270
Nov-33 288,270 31,930 270 340,686 37,597 270 253,326 28,153 270
Dec-33 289,360 31,969 270 342,430 37,659 270 253,980 28,176 270
Jan-34 288,692 31,897 271 341,361 37,544 271 253,579 28,133 271
Feb-34 288,677 31,933 270 341,338 37,602 270 253,570 28,154 270
Mar-34 288,846 31,972 270 341,607 37,664 270 253,671 28,178 270
Apr-34 288,615 32,018 270 341,239 37,737 270 253,533 28,205 270
May-34 288,906 32,056 270 341,704 37,798 270 253,708 28,228 270
Jun-34 288,755 32,140 270 341,463 37,933 270 253,617 28,279 270
Jul-34 289,171 32,175 271 342,128 37,989 271 253,867 28,300 271
Aug-34 290,062 32,206 271 343,553 38,038 271 254,401 28,318 271
Sep-34 290,745 32,274 271 344,646 38,146 271 254,811 28,359 271
Oct-34 291,301 32,311 271 345,535 38,206 271 255,144 28,381 271
Nov-34 292,223 32,360 271 347,011 38,284 271 255,698 28,410 271
Dec-34 293,328 32,399 271 348,778 38,346 271 256,361 28,434 271
Jan-35 292,617 32,321 273 347,642 38,221 273 255,934 28,387 273
Feb-35 292,602 32,357 272 347,618 38,280 272 255,925 28,409 272
Mar-35 292,773 32,397 272 347,890 38,343 272 256,028 28,433 272
Apr-35 292,540 32,443 272 347,517 38,418 272 255,888 28,460 272
May-35 292,834 32,481 272 347,989 38,479 272 256,064 28,483 272
Jun-35 292,681 32,567 272 347,744 38,616 272 255,973 28,535 272
Jul-35 293,103 32,603 273 348,418 38,673 273 256,226 28,556 273
Aug-35 294,005 32,634 273 349,863 38,723 273 256,767 28,575 273
Sep-35 294,698 32,702 273 350,971 38,832 273 257,183 28,616 273
Oct-35 295,261 32,740 273 351,872 38,893 273 257,521 28,639 273
Nov-35 296,196 32,789 273 353,368 38,971 273 258,082 28,668 273
Dec-35 297,316 32,829 273 355,160 39,034 273 258,754 28,692 273
14 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD
Oregon -
Expected Growth
Jan-12 51,338 6,544
Feb-i 2 51254 6,553
Mar-12 51,297 6,489
Apr-12 51,214 6,510
May-12 51,264 6,505
Jun-12 51,177 6,500
Jul-12 51,096 6,494
Aug-12 51,095 6492
Sep-i 2 51,027 6.502
Oct-12 51,232 6,513
Nov-12 51,508 6527
Dec-12 51,884 6,531
Jan-13 52,038 6,594
Feb-i 3 51,954 6,603
Mar-13 51,997 6539
Apr-13 52,014 6,560
May-i 3 52,064 6,555
Jun-13 52,077 6,550
Jul-13 51,996 6,544
Aug-13 52,095 6,542
Sep-13 52,027 6,552
Oct-13 52,332 6,563
Nov-13 52,608 6,577
Dec-13 52,984 6,581
Jan-14 53,138 6,674
Feb-14 53,054 6,683
Mar-14 53,197 6,619
Apr-14 53,214 6,640
May-14 53,364 6,635
Jun-14 53,377 6,630
Jul-14 53,296 6,624
Aug-14 53,395 6,622
Sep-14 53,327 6,632
Oct-14 53,632 6,643
Nov-14 53,908 6,657
Dec-14 54,284 6,661
Jan-15 54,438 6,794
Feb-15 54,354 6,803
Mar-15 54,497 6,739
Apr-15 54,514 6,760
May-15 54,664 6,755
Jun-15 54,677 6,750
Jul-15 54,596 6,744
Aug-iS 54,695 6,742
Sep-15 54,627 6,752
Oct-15 54,932 6,763
Nov-iS 55,208 6,777
Dec-15 55,584 6,781
Jan-16 55,726 6,917
Oregon -
High Growth
15 51,762 6,581
15 51,627 6,595
15 51,696 6,493
15 51,563 6.526
18 51,643 6,518
15 51,504 6,510
15 51,374 6,501
15 51,373 6,497
15 51,264 6,513
15 51,592 6,531
15 52,034 6,553
15 52,635 6,560
15 52,882 6.661
15 52,747 6,675
15 52,816 6,513
15 52,843 6,606
18 52,923 6,598
15 52,944 6,590
iS 52,814 6,581
15 52,973 6,577
15 52,864 6,593
15 53,352 6,611
15 53,794 6,633
15 54,395 6,640
15 54,642 6,789
15 54,507 6,803
15 54,736 6,701
15 54,763 6,734
18 55,003 6,726
15 55,024 6,718
15 54,894 6,709
15 55,053 6,705
15 54,944 6,721
15 55,432 6,739
15 55,874 6,761
15 56,475 6,768
16 56,722 6,981
16 56,587 6,995
16 56,816 6,893
16 56,843 6,926
19 57,083 6,918
16 57,104 6,910
16 56,974 6,901
16 57,133 6,897
16 57.024 6,913
16 57,512 6,931
16 57,954 6,953
16 58,555 6,960
16 58,782 7,177
Oregon -
Low Growth
15 51,056 6,520
15 51,005 6,525
15 51,031 6,487
15 50.981 6,499
18 51.011 6,496
15 50.959 6,493
15 50.910 6,490
15 50,910 6,488
15 50,869 6,494
15 50,992 6,501
15 51,158 6,509
15 51,383 6,512
15 51.476 6,550
15 51,425 6,555
15 51,451 6,517
15 51,461 6.529
18 51,491 6.526
15 51,499 6,523
15 51,450 6,520
15 51,510 6,518
15 51,469 6.524
15 51,652 6,531
15 51,818 6,539
15 52.043 6.542
15 52,136 6,598
15 52,085 6,603
15 52,171 6,565
15 52,181 6,577
18 52,271 6,574
15 52,279 6,571
15 52,230 6,568
15 52.290 6,566
15 52,249 6.572
15 52,432 6,519
15 52,598 6,587
15 52,823 6,590
16 52,916 6,670
16 52,865 6,675
16 52,951 6,637
16 52,961 6,649
19 53,051 6,646
16 53,059 6,643
16 53,010 6,640
16 53,070 6,638
16 53,029 6,644
16 53,212 6,651
16 53,378 6,659
16 53,603 6,662
16 53,688 6,743
15
15
15
15
18
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
18
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
18
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
19
16
16
is
16
16
16
16
16
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercia Industrial
Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford I Medford Medtord
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 15
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercia IndustrialMedfordMedlordMedfordMedfordMedfordMedfordMedfordIMedfordMedfordCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomers
Feb-16 55,640 6,926 16 58,644 7,192 16 53,637 6,749 16
Mar-16 55,786 6,861 16 58,879 7,088 16 53,724 6,710 16
Apr-16 55,803 6,882 16 58,906 7,122 16 53,735 6,723 16
May-16 55,957 6,877 19 59,152 7,114 19 53,827 6,720 19
Jun-16 55,970 6,872 16 59,173 7,106 16 53,835 6,717 16
Jul-16 55,887 6,866 16 59,041 7,096 16 53,785 6,713 16
Aug-16 55,989 6,864 16 59,203 7,093 16 53,846 6,712 16
Sep-16 55,919 6,874 16 59,091 7,109 16 53,804 6,718 16
Oct-16 56,231 6,885 16 59,591 7,127 16 53,992 6,724 16
Nov-16 56,514 6,900 16 60,043 7,150 16 54,161 6,733 16
Dec-16 56,899 6,904 16 60,659 7,156 16 54,392 6735 16
Jan-17 57,018 7,041 17 60,850 7.375 17 54,464 6,818 17
Feb-17 56,930 7.050 17 60,710 7,390 17 54,411 6,823 17
Mar-17 57,080 6,984 17 60,949 7,284 17 54,501 6,783 17
Apr-17 57,098 7,005 17 60,978 7,319 17 54,512 6,796 17
May-17 57,255 7,000 20 61,229 7,310 20 54,606 6,793 20
Jun-17 57,269 6,995 17 61,251 7,302 17 54,614 6,790 17
Jul-17 57,184 6,989 17 61,115 7,292 17 54,563 6,786 17
Aug-17 57,288 6,987 17 61,281 7,289 17 54,625 6,785 17
Sep-17 57,216 6,997 17 61,167 1.305 17 54,583 6,791 17
Oct-17 57,536 7,008 17 61.678 7,324 17 54,774 6,798 17
Nov-17 57,825 7,023 17 62,141 7,347 17 54,948 6,807 17
Dec-17 58,219 7,027 17 62,771 7,354 17 55,184 6.809 17
Jan-18 58,301 7,163 17 62,903 7,571 17 55,234 6,891 17
Feb-18 58,211 7,173 17 62,759 7.586 17 55.160 6,897 17
Mar-18 58,365 7,105 17 63,004 7,478 17 55.272 6.856 17
Apr-18 58,383 7,127 17 63,033 7,514 17 55,282 6,870 17
May-18 58.543 7,122 20 63,290 7,505 20 55,379 6,866 20
Jun-18 58,557 7,117 17 63,312 7,497 17 55,387 6,863 17
Jul-18 58,471 1,110 17 63,174 7,487 17 55,335 6,859 17
Aug-18 58,577 7,108 17 63,343 7,484 17 55,399 6,858 17
Sep-18 58,504 7,119 17 63,227 7,500 17 55,355 6,865 17
Oct-18 58,830 7,130 17 63,749 7,519 17 55,551 6.871 17
Nov-18 59.126 7,145 17 64,222 7,543 17 55.728 6,880 17
Dec-18 59,529 7.149 17 64,867 7,549 17 55,970 6,883 17
Jan-19 59,560 7,283 17 64,917 7,764 17 55,989 6,963 17
Feb-19 59,469 7,293 17 64,770 7,779 17 55,934 6,969 17
Mar-19 59.625 7.224 17 65,021 7.669 17 56,028 6,928 17
Apr-19 59,644 7,247 17 65,051 7,705 17 56,039 6.941 17
May-19 59,808 7,242 20 65,313 7,697 20 56,137 6,938 20
Jun-19 59,822 7,236 17 65,336 7,688 17 56,146 6,935 17
Jul-19 59,733 7,230 17 65,194 7,678 17 56.093 6,931 17
Aug-19 59,842 7,228 17 65,367 7,675 17 56,158 6,930 17
Sep-19 59.767 7,238 17 65,248 7.692 17 56,113 6,936 17
Oct-19 60,101 7,250 17 65,782 7,711 17 56,313 6,943 17
Nov-19 60,403 7,265 17 66.265 7,735 17 56,495 6,952 17
Dec-19 60,814 7,270 17 66,924 7,741 17 56,741 6,955 17
Jan-20 60,811 7,403 17 66,918 7,955 17 56,739 7,035 17
Feb-20 60717 7,413 17 66,768 7,971 17 56,683 7,041 17
16 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
Mar-20 60,876 7,343
Apr-20 60,895 7,366
May-20 61,063 7,360
Jun-20 61,078 7,355
Jul-20 60,987 7348
Aug-20 61,098 7,346
Sep-20 61,022 7.357
Oct-20 61,362 7369
Nov-20 61,671 7384
Dec-20 62,091 7,389
Jan-21 62,039 7,520
Feb-21 61,943 7,530
Mar-21 62,106 7,459
Apr-21 62,125 7,483
May-21 62,296 7,477
Jun-21 62,311 7,472
Jul-21 62,219 7,465
Aug-21 62,332 7,463
Sep-21 62,254 7.474
Oct-21 62,602 7,486
Nov-21 62,916 7,501
Dec-21 63,345 7,506
Jan-22 63,266 7,638
Feb-22 63,169 7,648
Mar-22 63,335 7,576
Apr-22 63,355 7,599
May-22 63,529 7,594
Jun-22 63,544 7,588
Jul-22 63,450 7,581
Aug-22 63,565 7,579
Sep-22 63,486 7,590
Oct-22 63,840 7,603
Nov-22 64,161 7,618
Dec-22 64,598 7,623
Jan-23 64,526 7,758
Feb-23 64,427 7,768
Mar-23 64,596 7,695
Apr-23 64,616 7,719
May-23 64,794 7,713
Jun-23 64,809 7,708
Jul-23 64,713 7,701
Aug-23 64,831 7,699
Sep-23 64,750 7,710
Oct-23 65,112 7,723
Nov-23 65,439 7,739
Dec-23 65,884 7,743
Jan-24 65,782 7,878
Feb-24 65,680 7,888
Mar-24 65,853 7,814
17 67,023 7,859
17 67,054 7,896
21 67,322 7,887
17 67,345 7,878
17 67,200 7.868
17 67,377 7,864
17 67,255 7,882
17 67,801 7,901
17 68,294 7,925
17 68,966 7,932
18 68,883 8,143
18 68,730 8,159
18 68.990 8,045
18 69.021 8,082
21 69,295 8,074
18 69,319 8.065
18 69,171 8.054
18 69,351 8,051
18 69,227 8,068
18 69,783 8,088
18 70,287 8,112
18 70,972 8.120
18 70,847 8,330
18 70,691 8,346
18 70,957 8.231
18 70,988 8,269
21 71,267 8,260
18 71,291 8,251
18 71,141 8,240
18 71,325 8,237
18 71,198 8,255
18 71.766 8.275
18 72,279 8,300
18 72,978 8,307
18 72,863 8,523
18 72,703 8,539
18 72.974 8,422
18 73,007 8,461
22 73,291 8,452
18 73,316 8,442
18 73,162 8,432
18 73,350 8,428
18 73,221 8,446
18 73,799 8,466
18 74,323 8,492
18 75,036 8,499
19 74,872 8,715
19 74,709 8,732
19 74,986 8,613
17 56.779 6,999
17 56.790 7,013
21 56,891 7,009
17 56,899 7,006
17 56.845 7.002
17 56,911 7.001
17 56,866 7.007
17 57,070 7.015
17 57,255 7,024
17 57,507 7.026
18 57,476 7,105
18 57,419 7,111
18 57,516 7,069
18 57,528 7,083
21 57,631 7.079
18 57,639 7.076
18 57,584 7.072
18 57,652 7,071
18 57.605 7.077
18 57,814 7,085
18 58,003 7,094
18 58.260 7,097
18 58.213 7.176
18 58,154 7,182
18 58,254 7,139
18 58,266 7,153
21 58,370 7,149
18 58,379 7,146
18 58,323 7,142
18 58,392 7,141
18 58,344 7,147
18 58,557 7,155
18 58,750 7,164
18 59,012 7.167
18 58,968 7,248
18 58,909 7,254
18 59,010 7.210
18 59,023 7,225
22 59,129 7,221
18 59,138 7,218
18 59,081 7,214
18 59,151 7,212
18 59,103 7,219
18 59,320 7,227
18 59,516 7,236
18 59,783 7,239
19 59,722 7,320
19 59.661 7,326
19 59,765 7.282
17
17
21
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
21
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
21
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
22
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercia Industrial
Medford Medlord Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford I Medlord Medford
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 17
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercia Industrial
Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford Medlord Medford I Medford Medford
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Apr-24 65874 7838 19 75019 8,652 19 59,777 7,296 19
May-24 66,055 7,833 22 75,309 8,642 22 59,886 7,293 22
Jun-24 66,071 7,827 19 75,334 8,633 19 59,895 7,289 19
Jul-24 65,973 7820 19 75,177 8,622 19 59,836 7,285 19
Aug-24 66,092 7,818 19 75,369 8,618 19 59,908 7,284 19
Sep-24 66,010 7,829 19 75,237 8,637 19 59,859 7,291 19
Oct-24 66,379 7,842 19 75,827 8,657 19 60,080 7,298 19
Nov-24 66,712 7,858 19 76,360 8,683 19 60,280 7308 19
Dec-24 67,167 7,863 19 77,087 8,691 19 60,553 7.311 19
Jan-25 67,057 8,000 19 76,913 8,910 19 60,487 7,393 19
Feb-25 66,954 8,010 19 76,747 8,927 19 60,425 7,399 19
Mar-25 67,130 7,935 19 77,029 8,806 19 60,531 7,354 19
Apr-25 67,151 7,960 19 77,062 8,846 19 60,543 7.369 19
May-25 67,336 7,954 22 77,358 8,836 22 60,654 7,366 22
Jun-25 67,352 7,948 19 77,384 8,827 19 60,664 7.362 19
Jul-25 67,252 7,941 19 77,224 8,816 19 60,604 7,358 19
Aug-25 67,374 7,939 19 77,419 8,812 19 60,677 7,356 19
Sep-25 67,290 7,950 19 77,285 8,831 19 60,627 7,363 19
Oct-25 67,666 7,963 19 77,886 8,851 19 60,852 7,371 19
Nov-25 68,006 7,980 19 78,430 8,878 19 61,056 7,381 19
Dec-25 68,469 7,984 19 79,171 8,885 19 61,334 7,384 19
Jan-26 68,329 8,121 19 78,947 9,104 19 61,250 7,466 19
Feb-26 68,223 8,132 19 78,778 9,121 19 61,187 7,472 19
Mar-26 68,403 8,056 19 79,065 8,999 19 61,295 7,427 19
Apr-26 68,424 8,081 19 79,100 9,039 19 61,307 7,442 19
May-26 68,613 8,075 23 79,401 9,030 23 61,420 7,438 23
Jun-26 68,629 8,069 19 79,427 9,020 19 61,430 7,434 19
Jul-26 68,527 8,062 19 79,264 9,009 19 61,369 7,430 19
Aug-26 68,651 8,059 19 79,463 9,005 19 61,444 7,429 19
Sep-26 68,566 8,071 19 79,327 9,024 19 61,392 7,436 19
Oct-26 68,949 8,084 19 79,939 9,045 19 61,622 7,444 19
Nov-26 69,295 8,101 19 80,493 9,072 19 61,830 7,454 19
Dec-26 69,767 8,106 19 81,248 9,079 19 62,113 7,457 19
Jan-27 69,561 8,239 20 80,918 9,293 20 61,989 7,537 20
Feb-27 69,454 8,250 20 80,747 9,310 20 61,925 7,543 20
Mar-27 69,636 8,172 20 81,039 9,186 20 62,035 7,497 20
Apr-27 69,658 8,198 20 81,074 9,227 20 62,048 7,512 20
May-27 69,850 8,192 23 81,380 9,217 23 62,163 7,508 23
Jun-27 69,866 8,186 20 81,407 9,207 20 62,173 7,505 20
Jul-27 69,763 8,178 20 81,241 9,196 20 62,111 7,500 20
Aug-27 69,889 8,176 20 81,444 9,192 20 62,186 7499 20
Sep-27 69,803 8,188 20 81,305 9,211 20 62,134 7,506 20
Oct-27 70,192 8,201 20 81,928 9,232 20 62,368 7,514 20
Nov-27 70,545 8,218 20 82,493 9,260 20 62,580 7,524 20
Dec-27 71,025 8,223 20 83,261 9,267 20 62,868 7,527 20
Jan-28 70,738 8,351 20 82,801 9,472 20 62,695 7,604 20
Feb-28 70,628 8,362 20 82,626 9,490 20 62,630 7,611 20
Mar-28 70,814 8,284 20 82,924 9,364 20 62,741 7,563 20
Apr-28 70,836 8,310 20 82,959 9,406 20 62,755 7,579 20
18 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercia Industrial
Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford I Medford Medford
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
May-28 71031 8,303 24 83,271 9,396 24 62,872 7,575 24
Jun-28 71,048 8,297 20 83,298 9,386 20 62,882 7,572 20
Jul-28 70943 8,290 20 83,129 9,374 20 62,819 7,567 20
Aug-28 71072 8,288 20 83,335 9,370 20 62,896 7,566 20
Sep-28 70,983 8,300 20 83,194 9,390 20 62,843 7,573 20
Oct-28 71,379 8,313 20 83,828 9,412 20 63,080 7,581 20
Nov-28 71,738 8,331 20 84,402 9,439 20 63,296 7,592 20
Dec-28 72,227 8,335 20 85,183 9,447 20 63,589 7,594 20
Jan-29 71,882 8,461 20 84,633 9,648 20 63,382 7,670 20
Feb-29 71,772 8,472 20 84,455 9,665 20 63,316 7,676 20
Mar-29 71,960 8,392 20 84,757 9,538 20 63,429 7,629 20
Apr-29 71,983 8,418 20 84,793 9,580 20 63,443 7,644 20
May-29 72,181 8,412 24 85,110 9,570 24 63,561 7,641 24
Jun-29 72,198 8,406 20 85,138 9,560 20 63,572 7,637 20
Jul-29 72,091 8,399 20 84,967 9,548 20 63,507 7,632 20
Aug-29 72,222 8,396 20 85,176 9,544 20 63,586 7,631 20
Sep-29 72,132 8,409 20 85,032 9,564 20 63,532 7,638 20
Oct-29 72,535 8,422 20 85,676 9,586 20 63,774 7,647 20
Nov-29 72,899 8,440 20 86,260 9,614 20 63,992 7,657 20
Dec-29 73,396 8,445 20 87,054 9,622 20 64,290 7,660 20
Jan-30 73,032 8,571 21 86,472 9,823 21 64,072 7,736 21
Feb-30 72,919 8,582 21 86,291 9,841 21 64,004 7,742 21
Mar-30 73,111 8,501 21 86,598 9,712 21 64,119 7,694 21
Apr-30 73,134 8,528 21 86,635 9,755 21 64,133 7,710 21
May-30 73,335 8,521 24 86,957 9,744 24 64,254 7,706 24
Jun-30 73,352 8,515 21 86,985 9,734 21 64,264 7,702 21
Jul-30 73,244 8,508 21 86,811 9,722 21 64,199 7,698 21
Aug-30 73,377 8,505 21 87,023 9,718 21 64,279 7,696 21
Sep-30 73,285 8,518 21 86,877 9,738 21 64,224 7,704 21
Oct-30 73,694 8,532 21 87,532 9,761 21 64,469 7,712 21
Nov-30 74,065 8,549 21 88,124 9,789 21 64,692 7,723 21
Dec-30 74,569 8,554 21 88,931 9,797 21 64,994 7,726 21
Jan-31 74,168 8,679 21 88,290 9,997 21 64,754 7,801 21
Feb-31 74,054 8,691 21 88,106 10,015 21 64,685 7,808 21
Mar-31 74,248 8,609 21 88,418 9,884 21 64,802 7,759 21
Apr-31 74,272 8636 21 88,455 9,927 21 64,816 7,775 21
May-31 74,476 8,629 24 88,782 9,917 24 64,938 7,771 24
Jun-31 74,494 8,623 21 88,811 9,907 21 64,949 7,767 21
Jul-31 74,383 8,615 21 88,634 9,895 21 64,883 7,762 21
Aug-31 74,518 8,613 21 88,850 9,891 21 64,964 7,761 21
Sep-31 74,425 8,626 21 88,702 9,911 21 64,908 7,769 21
Oct-31 74,841 8,640 21 89,366 9,934 21 65,157 7,777 21
Nov-31 75,217 8,657 21 89,968 9,962 21 65,383 7,788 21
Dec-31 75,729 8,663 21 90,788 9,970 21 65,690 7,791 21
Jan-32 75,277 8,785 21 90,064 10.166 21 65,419 7,864 21
Feb-32 75,161 8,797 21 89,878 10,185 21 65,349 7,871 21
Mar-32 75,359 8,714 21 90,194 10,053 21 65,468 7,822 21
Apr-32 75,382 8,741 21 90,232 10,096 21 65,482 7,838 21
May-32 75,589 8,735 24 90,564 10,086 24 65,606 7,834 24
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 19
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD
Oregon -
Expected Growth
Oregon -
High Growth
Oregon -
Low Growth
Jun-32 75,607 8,728
Jul-32 75,495 8,721
Aug-32 75,632 8718
Sep-32 75,538 8,731
Oct-32 75,960 8,745
Nov-32 76,342 8,763
Dec-32 76,862 8,768
Jan-33 76,373 8,890
Feb-33 76,255 8,902
Mar-33 76,456 8,818
Apr-33 76,480 8,845
May-33 76,690 8,839
Jun-33 76,709 8,832
Jul-33 76,595 8,824
Aug-33 76,734 8,822
Sep-33 76,638 8,835
Oct-33 77,066 8,849
Nov-33 77,454 8,868
Dec-33 77,981 8,873
Jan-34 77,475 8,995
Feb-34 77,355 9,007
Mar-34 77,559 8,922
Apr-34 77,583 8,950
May-34 77,796 8,944
Jun-34 77,815 8,937
Jul-34 77,700 8,929
Aug-34 77,840 8,926
Sep-34 77,744 8,940
Oct-34 78,178 8,954
Nov-34 78,570 8,973
Dec-34 79,106 8,978
Jan-35 78,583 9,101
Feb-35 78,462 9,113
Mar-35 78,668 9,027
Apr-35 78,693 9,056
May-35 78,909 9,049
Jun-35 78,928 9,042
Jul-35 78,811 9,034
Aug-35 78,954 9,031
Sep-35 78,856 9,045
Oct-35 79,296 9,060
Nov-35 79,694 9,078
Dec-35 80,237 9,084
21 90,593 10,075
21 90,414 10,063
21 90,633 10,059
21 90,482 10,080
21 91,157 10,102
21 91,768 10,131
21 92,599 10,140
21 91,818 10,334
21 91,630 10,353
21 91,951 10,219
21 91,989 10,263
24 92,325 10,252
21 92,355 10,242
21 92,173 10,229
21 92,395 10,225
21 92,242 10,246
21 92,927 10,269
21 93,547 10,298
21 94,391 10,307
21 93,580 10,502
21 93,389 10,522
21 93,715 10,386
21 93,753 10,430
24 94,095 10,420
21 94,124 10,409
21 93,940 10,397
21 94,165 10,392
21 94.011 10,413
21 94,705 10,437
21 95,334 10,466
21 96,190 10,475
21 95,354 10,672
21 95,160 10,691
21 95,490 10554
21 95,529 10.599
24 95,875 10,588
21 95,906 10,578
21 95,718 10,565
21 95,947 10,560
21 95,790 10,582
21 96,494 10,605
21 97,132 10,635
21 98,000 10,644
21 65,617 7,830
21 65,550 7,826
21 65,632 7,824
21 65,576 7,832
21 65,829 7,840
21 66,058 7.851
21 66,370 7,854
21 66,077 7,927
21 66,006 7,934
21 66,126 7.884
21 66,141 7,900
24 66,267 7,897
21 66,278 7,893
21 66,210 7,888
21 66,293 7,886
21 66,236 7,894
21 66,493 7,903
21 66,725 7,914
21 67,041 7,917
21 66,738 7,990
21 66,666 7,997
21 66,788 7,947
21 66,802 7,963
24 66,931 7,959
21 66,942 7,955
21 66,873 7,951
21 66,957 7,949
21 66,899 7,957
21 67,159 7,966
21 67,395 7,977
21 67,716 7,980
21 67,403 8,054
21 67,330 8,061
21 67,454 8.010
21 67,468 8.027
24 67,598 8,022
21 67,610 8.018
21 67,539 8,014
21 67,625 8,012
21 67,566 8,020
21 67.830 8,029
21 68,069 8,040
21 68,395 8,043
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
24
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
24
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
24
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercia Industrial
Medlord Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford Medford I Medford MedfordCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomers
20 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-12 13,266 2150 3 13,405 2,161 3 13173 2143 3
Feb-12 13,303 2,148 3 13,464 2,158 3 13,195 2,142 3
Mar-12 13,294 2158 3 13,450 2,174 3 13,190 2,148 3
Apr-12 13,284 2,140 3 13,434 2,145 3 13,184 2,137 3
May-12 13,258 2,141 3 13,392 2,146 3 13,168 2,137 3
Jun-12 13,235 2,142 3 13,356 2,148 3 13,155 2,138 3
Jul-12 13176 2,145 3 13261 2,153 3 13,119 2,140 3
Aug-12 13170 2,147 3 13,252 2,156 3 13,116 2,141 3
Sep-12 13,155 2,151 3 13,228 2,162 3 13,107 2,143 3
Oct-12 13,184 2,152 3 13,274 2,164 3 13,124 2,144 3
Nov-12 13,291 2,152 3 13,445 2164 3 13,188 2,144 3
Dec-12 13,382 2,159 3 13,591 2,175 3 13,243 2,148 3
Jan-13 13,416 2,175 3 13,645 2,201 3 13,263 2,158 3
Feb-13 13,453 2,173 3 13,704 2,198 3 13,285 2157 3
Mar-13 13,469 2,183 3 13,730 2,214 3 13,295 2,163 3
Apr-13 13,459 2,165 3 13,714 2,185 3 13,289 2,152 3
May-13 13,458 2,166 3 13,712 2,186 3 13,288 2,152 3
Jun-13 13,485 2,167 3 13,756 2,188 3 13,305 2,153 3
Jul-13 13,426 2,170 3 13,661 2,193 3 13,269 2,155 3
Aug-13 13,420 2,172 3 13,652 2,196 3 13,266 2,156 3
Sep-13 13,430 2,176 3 13,668 2,202 3 13,272 2,158 3
Oct-13 13,459 2177 3 13,714 2 204 3 13,289 2,159 3
Nov-13 13,566 2,177 3 13,885 2,204 3 13,363 2,159 3
Dec-13 13,657 2,184 3 14,031 2,215 3 13,408 2,163 3
Jan-14 13,716 2,205 3 14,125 2,249 3 13,443 2,176 3
Feb-14 13,753 2,203 3 14,184 2,246 3 13,465 2,175 3
Mar-14 13,769 2,213 3 14,210 2,262 3 13,475 2,181 3
Apr-14 13,759 2,195 3 14,194 2,233 3 13,469 2,170 3
May-14 13,758 2,196 3 14,192 2,234 3 13,468 2,170 3
Jun-14 13,785 2,197 3 14,236 2,236 3 13,485 2,171 3
Jul-14 13,726 2,200 3 14,141 2,241 3 13,449 2,173 3
Aug-14 13,720 2,202 3 14,132 2,244 3 13,446 2,174 3
Sep-14 13,730 2,206 3 14,148 2,250 3 13,452 2,176 3
Oct-14 13,759 2,207 3 14,194 2,252 3 13,469 2,177 3
Nov-14 13,866 2,207 3 14,365 2,252 3 13,533 2,177 3
Dec-14 13,957 2,214 3 14,511 2,263 3 13,588 2,181 3
Jan-15 14,041 2,235 3 14,645 2,297 3 13,638 2,194 3
Feb-15 14,078 2,233 3 14,704 2,294 3 13,660 2,193 3
Mar-15 14,094 2,243 3 14,730 2310 3 13,670 2,199 3
Apr-15 14,084 2,225 3 14,714 2,281 3 13,664 2,188 3
May-15 14,083 2,226 3 14,712 2,282 3 13,663 2,188 3
Jun-15 14,110 2,227 3 14,756 2,284 3 13,680 2,189 3
Jul-15 14,051 2,230 3 14,661 2,289 3 13,644 2,191 3
Aug-15 14,045 2,232 3 14,652 2,292 3 13,641 2,192 3
Sep-15 14,055 2,236 3 14,668 2,298 3 13,647 2,194 3
Oct-15 14,084 2,237 3 14,714 2,300 3 13,664 2,195 3
Nov-15 14,191 2,237 3 14,885 2,300 3 13,728 2,195 3
Dec-15 14,282 2244 3 15,031 2,311 3 13,783 2,199 3
Jan-16 14,373 2,260 3 15,177 2,336 3 13,838 2,209 3
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 21
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg
Feb-16 14,411 2,258 3 15,238 2,333 3 13,860 2,207 3
Mar-16 14,428 2,268 3 15,264 2,349 3 13,870 2,213 3
Apr-16 14,417 2,250 3 15,247 2,320 3 13,864 2,203 3
May-16 14,416 2,251 3 15,246 2,322 3 13,863 2,203 3
Jun-16 14,444 2,252 3 15,290 2,323 3 13,880 2,204 3
Jul-16 14,384 2,255 3 15,193 2,328 3 13,844 2,206 3
Aug-16 14,377 2,257 3 15,183 2,331 3 13,840 2,207 3
Sep-16 14,388 2,261 3 15,200 2,338 3 13,846 2,209 3
Oct-16 14,417 2,262 3 15,247 2,340 3 13,864 2,210 3
Nov-16 14,527 2,262 3 15,423 2,340 3 13,930 2,210 3
Dec-16 14,620 2,269 3 15,572 2,351 3 13,986 2,214 3
Jan-17 14,683 2,283 3 15,673 2,373 3 14,023 2,222 3
Feb-17 14,722 2,281 3 15,735 2,370 3 14,047 2,221 3
Mar-17 14,739 2,291 3 15,761 2,386 3 14,057 2,227 3
Apr-17 14,728 2,273 3 15,745 2,357 3 14,050 2,216 3
May-17 14,727 2,274 3 15,743 2,358 3 14,050 2,217 3
Jun-17 14,755 2,275 3 15,788 2,360 3 14,067 2,218 3
Jul-17 14,694 2,278 3 15,689 2,365 3 14,030 2,219 3
Aug-17 14,687 2,280 3 15,679 2,368 3 14,026 2,221 3
Sep-17 14,698 2,284 3 15,696 2,375 3 14,032 2,223 3
Oct-17 14,728 2,285 3 15,745 2,376 3 14,050 2,224 3
Nov-17 14,840 2,285 3 15,924 2,376 3 14,118 2,224 3
Dec-17 14,935 2,292 3 16,076 2,388 3 14,175 2,228 3
Jan-18 14,971 2,304 3 16,133 2,407 3 14,196 2,235 3
Feb-18 15,010 2,302 3 16,196 2,404 3 14,220 2,234 3
Mar-18 15,027 2,312 3 16,224 2,421 3 14,230 2,240 3
Apr-18 15,017 2,294 3 16,206 2,391 3 14,224 2,229 3
May-18 15,016 2,295 3 16,205 2,393 3 14,223 2,230 3
Jun-18 15,045 2,296 3 16,251 2,394 3 14,240 2,230 3
Jul-18 14,982 2,299 3 16,150 2,399 3 14,203 2,232 3
Aug-18 14,975 2,301 3 16,140 2,402 3 14,199 2,233 3
Sep-18 14,986 2,305 3 16,157 2,409 3 14,205 2.236 3
Oct-18 15,017 2,306 3 16,206 2,411 3 14,224 2,237 3
Nov-18 15,131 2,306 3 16,389 2,411 3 14,292 2,237 3
Dec-18 15,228 2,313 3 16,544 2,422 3 14,350 2,241 3
Jan-19 15,259 2,326 3 16,594 2,442 3 14,369 2,248 3
Feb-19 15,299 2,323 3 16,658 2,438 3 14,393 2,247 3
Mar-19 15,317 2,334 3 16,686 2,455 3 14,404 2,253 3
Apr-19 15,306 2,315 3 16,669 2,425 3 14,397 2,242 3
May-19 15,305 2,316 3 16,667 2,427 3 14,396 2,243 3
Jun-19 15,334 2.317 3 16,714 2,428 3 14,414 2,243 3
Jul-19 15,270 2,320 3 16,611 2,433 3 14,376 2,245 3
Aug-19 15,263 2,322 3 16,601 2,437 3 14,372 2,246 3
Sep-19 15,274 2,327 3 16,618 2,443 3 14,378 2,249 3
Oct-19 15,306 2,328 3 16,669 2,445 3 14,397 2,249 3
Nov-19 15,422 2,328 3 16,855 2,445 3 14,467 2,249 3
Dec-19 15,521 2,335 3 17,013 2,457 3 14,526 2,254 3
Jan-20 15,549 2,347 3 17,058 2,476 3 14,543 2.261 3
Feb-20 15,590 2,345 3 17,124 2,473 3 14,568 2,260 3
Mar-20 15,608 2,356 3 17,152 2,490 3 14,578 2,266 3
22 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG
Oregon Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Apr-20 15,597 2,337 3 17,134 2,459 3 14,572 2,255 3
May-20 15,596 2,338 3 17,133 2,461 3 14,571 2,255 3
Jun-20 15,626 2,339 3 17,181 2,463 3 14,589 2,256 3
Jul-20 15,560 2,342 3 17,076 2,468 3 14,550 2,258 3
Aug-20 15,554 2344 3 17,065 2,471 3 14.546 2.259 3
Sep-20 15,565 2,348 3 17,083 2.478 3 14,552 2,262 3
Oct-20 15,597 2,349 3 17,134 2,480 3 14,572 2,262 3
Nov-20 15,715 2,349 3 17,324 2,480 3 14,643 2,262 3
Dec-20 15,816 2,357 3 17,485 2,491 3 14,703 2,267 3
Jan-21 15,836 2,368 4 17,517 2,510 4 14,715 2,274 4
Feb-21 15,878 2,366 4 17,584 2,507 4 14,740 2,273 4
Mar-21 15,896 2,377 4 17,613 2,524 4 14,751 2,279 4
Apr-21 15,884 2,358 4 17,595 2,493 4 14,744 2,268 4
May-21 15,883 2,359 4 17,593 2,495 4 14,744 2,268 4
Jun-21 15,914 2,360 4 17,642 2,497 4 14,762 2,269 4
Jul-21 15,847 2,363 4 17,535 2,502 4 14,722 2,271 4
Aug-21 15,840 2,365 4 17,524 2,505 4 14,718 2,272 4
Sep-21 15,852 2,369 4 17,542 2,512 4 14,725 2,274 4
Oct-21 15,884 2,371 4 17,595 2,514 4 14,744 2,275 4
Nov-21 16,005 2,371 4 17,788 2,514 4 14,817 2,275 4
Dec-21 16,108 2,378 4 17,952 2,526 4 14,878 2,280 4
Jan-22 16,121 2,390 4 17,974 2,544 4 14,886 2,287 4
Feb-22 16,164 2388 4 18,042 2,541 4 14,912 2,285 4
Mar-22 16,182 2,398 4 18,071 2,558 4 14,923 2,292 4
Apr-22 16,171 2,379 4 18,053 2,527 4 14,916 2,280 4
May-22 16,170 2,380 4 18,051 2,529 4 14,915 2,281 4
Jun-22 16,201 2,381 4 18,101 2,531 4 14,934 2,281 4
Jul-22 16,133 2,384 4 17,992 2,536 4 14,893 2,283 4
Aug-22 16,126 2,386 4 17,981 2,539 4 14,889 2,285 4
Sep-22 16,137 2,391 4 18,000 2,546 4 14,896 2,287 4
Oct-22 16,171 2,392 4 18,053 2,548 4 14,916 2,288 4
Nov-22 16,294 2,392 4 18,249 2,548 4 14,990 2,288 4
Dec-22 16,398 2,399 4 18,417 2,560 4 15,052 2,292 4
Jan-23 16,409 2,411 4 18,434 2,578 4 15,059 2,299 4
Feb-23 16,452 2,409 4 18,503 2,575 4 15,085 2,298 4
Mar-23 16,471 2,420 4 18,533 2,592 4 15,096 2,305 4
Apr-23 16,459 2,400 4 18,514 2,561 4 15,089 2,293 4
May-23 16,458 2,401 4 18,512 2,563 4 15,088 2,294 4
Jun-23 16,490 2,402 4 18,563 2,565 4 15,107 2,294 4
Jul-23 16,421 2,406 4 18,453 2,570 4 15,066 2,296 4
Aug-23 16,414 2,408 4 18,441 2,573 4 15,062 2,297 4
Sep-23 16,425 2,412 4 18,460 2,580 4 15,069 2,300 4
Oct-23 16,459 2,413 4 18,514 2.582 4 15,089 2,301 4
Nov-23 16,584 2,413 4 18,714 2,582 4 15,164 2,301 4
Dec-23 16,691 2,421 4 18,885 2,594 4 15,228 2,305 4
Jan-24 16,701 2,433 4 18,902 2,613 4 15,234 2,312 4
Feb-24 16,745 2,431 4 18,972 2,610 4 15,261 2,311 4
Mar-24 16,764 2,441 4 19,002 2,627 4 15,272 2,318 4
Apr-24 16,752 2,422 4 18,983 2,596 4 15,265 2,306 4
May-24 16,751 2,423 4 18,982 2,598 4 15,264 2,307 4
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 23
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg RoseburgCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersCustomers
Jun-24 16,783 2,424 4 19,033 2,599 4 15,284 2,307 4
Jul-24 16,713 2,427 4 18,921 2,605 4 15,241 2,309 4
Aug-24 16706 2429 4 18,909 2,608 4 15237 2,310 4
Sep-24 16,718 2,434 4 18,928 2,615 4 15,244 2,313 4
Oct-24 16,752 2,435 4 18,983 2,617 4 15,265 2,314 4
Nov-24 16,880 2,435 4 19,187 2,617 4 15,341 2,314 4
Dec-24 16,988 2,443 4 19,360 2,629 4 15,406 2,318 4
Jan-25 16,996 2,455 4 19,374 2,648 4 15,411 2,326 4
Feb-25 17,041 2.453 4 19,445 2,645 4 15,438 2,324 4
Mar-25 17,061 2,463 4 19,476 2,662 4 15,450 2,331 4
Apr-25 17,048 2,444 4 19,457 2,631 4 15,443 2,319 4
May-25 17,047 2,445 4 19,455 2,633 4 15,442 2,320 4
Jun-25 17,080 2,446 4 19,507 2,634 4 15,462 2,320 4
Jul-25 17,008 2449 4 19,393 2640 4 15,419 2,322 4
Aug-25 17,001 2,451 4 19,382 2.643 4 15,414 2,324 4
Sep-25 17,013 2,456 4 19,401 2,650 4 15,422 2,326 4
Oct-25 17,048 2,457 4 19,457 2,652 4 15,443 2,327 4
Nov-25 17,178 2,457 4 19,664 2,652 4 15,520 2,327 4
Dec-25 17,288 2,465 4 19,841 2,664 4 15,586 2,332 4
Jan-26 17,296 2,477 4 19,853 2.684 4 15,591 2.339 4
Feb-26 17,341 2,475 4 19,926 2,680 4 15,618 2,338 4
Mar-26 17,361 2,486 4 19,957 2,698 4 15,630 2,344 4
Apr-26 17,349 2,466 4 19,938 2,666 4 15,623 2,332 4
May-26 17,347 2,467 4 19,936 2,668 4 15,622 2,333 4
Jun-26 17,381 2,468 4 19,989 2,670 4 15,642 2,334 4
Jul-26 17,308 2,471 4 19,872 2.675 4 15,598 2,336 4
Aug-26 17,301 2,474 4 19,861 2,679 4 15,594 2.337 4
Sep-26 17,313 2,478 4 19,880 2,686 4 15,601 2,340 4
Oct-26 17,349 2,479 4 19,938 2,687 4 15,623 2,340 4
Nov-26 17,480 2,479 4 20,148 2,687 4 15,702 2,340 4
Dec-26 17,593 2,487 4 20,328 2,700 4 15,769 2,345 4
Jan-27 17,602 2,500 4 20,342 2,720 4 15,775 2,353 4
Feb-27 17,648 2,497 4 20,416 2,717 4 15,802 2,351 4
Mar-27 17,668 2,509 4 20,448 2,735 4 15,814 2,358 4
Apr-27 17,656 2,489 4 20,428 2,702 4 15,807 2,346 4
May-27 17,654 2,490 4 20,426 2,704 4 15,806 2,347 4
Jun-27 17,688 2,491 4 20,481 2,706 4 15,826 2,347 4
Jul-27 17.614 2,494 4 20,362 2,711 4 15,782 2,349 4
Aug-27 17,607 2,496 4 20,350 2,715 4 15,778 2,351 4
Sep-27 17,619 2.501 4 20,370 2,722 4 15,785 2,353 4
Oct-27 17,656 2,502 4 20,428 2,724 4 15,807 2,354 4
Nov-27 17,790 2,502 4 20,643 2,724 4 15,887 2,354 4
Dec-27 17,904 2,510 4 20,826 2,736 4 15,956 2,359 4
Jan-28 17,832 2,517 4 20,710 2,748 4 15,913 2,363 4
Feb-28 17,879 2,515 4 20,785 2,744 4 15,941 2,362 4
Mar-28 17,899 2,526 4 20,818 2,762 4 15,953 2,368 4
Apr-28 17,886 2,505 4 20,797 2,730 4 15,945 2,356 4
May-28 17,885 2,507 4 20,795 2,731 4 15,945 2,357 4
Jun-28 17,919 2.508 4 20,850 2,733 4 15,965 2,357 4
Jul-28 17,844 2,511 4 20,730 2,739 4 15,920 2,359 4
24 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Aug-28 17,837 2,513 4 20,718 2,742 4 15,916 2,361 4
Sep-28 17,849 2,518 4 20,739 2,749 4 15,923 2,364 4
Oct-28 17,886 2,519 4 20,797 2,751 4 15,945 2364 4
Nov-28 18,022 2519 4 21,015 2,751 4 16027 2,364 4
Dec-28 18,138 2,527 4 21,200 2,764 4 16,096 2,369 4
Jan-29 18,058 2,534 4 21072 2,775 4 16,048 2,373 4
Feb-29 18,105 2,531 4 21,148 2,771 4 16,077 2,372 4
Mar-29 18,126 2,543 4 21,181 2,789 4 16,089 2378 4
Apr-29 18,113 2,522 4 21,160 2,756 4 16,081 2,366 4
May-29 18,112 2,523 4 21,158 2,758 4 16,081 2,367 4
Jun-29 18,146 2,525 4 21,214 2760 4 16,101 2,368 4
Jul-29 18,070 2,528 4 21,092 2,765 4 16,056 2,370 4
Aug-29 18,063 2530 4 21,080 2,769 4 16,051 2,371 4
Sep-29 18,076 2,535 4 21,101 2,776 4 16,059 2,374 4
Oct-29 18,113 2,536 4 21,160 2,778 4 16,081 2,374 4
Nov-29 18,250 2,536 4 21,380 2,778 4 16,164 2,374 4
Dec-29 18,368 2,544 4 21,568 2,791 4 16,234 2,379 4
Jan-30 18,285 2,550 5 21,435 2,802 5 16,184 2383 5
Feb-30 18,333 2,548 5 21,512 2,798 5 16,213 2,382 5
Mar-30 18,354 2,560 5 21,545 2,816 5 16,226 2,389 5
Apr-30 18,341 2,539 5 21,525 2,783 5 16,218 2,376 5
May-30 18,339 2,540 5 21,523 2,785 5 16,217 2,377 5
Jun-30 18,375 2,541 5 21,579 2,787 5 16,238 2,378 5
Jul-30 18,298 2,545 5 21,456 2,792 5 16,192 2,380 5
Aug-3D 18,290 2,547 5 21,443 2,796 5 16,188 2,381 5
Sep-30 18,303 2,552 5 21,464 2,803 5 16,195 2,384 5
Oct-30 18,341 2,553 5 21,525 2,805 5 16,218 2,384 5
Nov-30 18,480 2,553 5 21,748 2,805 5 16,302 2,384 5
Dec-30 18,599 2,561 5 21,937 2,818 5 16,373 2,389 5
Jan-31 18,512 2,567 5 21,799 2,829 5 16,321 2,393 5
Feb-31 18,561 2,565 5 21,877 2825 5 16,350 2,392 5
Mar-31 18,582 2,577 5 21,911 2,843 5 16,363 2,399 5
Apr-31 18,569 2,556 5 21,890 2,810 5 16,355 2,386 5
May-31 18,567 2557 5 21,887 2,812 5 16,354 2,387 5
Jun-31 18,603 2,558 5 21,944 2814 5 16,375 2388 5
Jul-31 18,525 2,562 5 21,820 2,819 5 16,329 2,390 5
Aug-31 18,517 2,564 5 21,807 2,823 5 16,324 2,391 5
Sep-31 18,530 2,569 5 21,828 2,830 5 16,332 2,394 5
Oct-31 18,569 2,570 5 21,890 2,832 5 16,355 2,395 5
Nov-31 18,710 2,570 5 22,115 2,832 5 16,439 2,395 5
Dec-31 18,830 2,578 5 22,307 2,845 5 16,511 2,399 5
Jan-32 18,735 2,584 5 22,156 2,855 5 16,455 2,403 5
Feb-32 18,785 2,582 5 22,235 2,851 5 16,484 2,402 5
Mar-32 18,806 2,593 5 22,269 2,870 5 16,497 2,409 5
Apr-32 18,793 2,572 5 22,248 2,837 5 16,489 2,396 5
May-32 18,791 2,574 5 22,246 2,838 5 16,488 2,397 5
Jun-32 18,827 2,575 5 22,303 2,840 5 16,510 2,398 5
Jul-32 18,749 2,578 5 22,177 2,846 5 16,463 2,400 5
Aug-32 18,740 2,580 5 22,164 2,850 5 16,458 2,401 5
Sep-32 18,754 2,585 5 22,186 2,857 5 16,466 2,404 5
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 25
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Oct-32 18,793 2,586 5 22248 2,859 5 16,489 2,405 5
Nov-32 18,935 2,586 5 22,476 2,859 5 16,575 2,405 5
Dec-32 19,057 2,594 5 22670 2,872 5 16,648 2,409 5
Jan-33 18,963 2,601 5 22,520 2,882 5 16591 2,413 5
Feb-33 19013 2599 5 22,600 2,878 5 16,621 2,412 5
Mar-33 19034 2,610 5 22635 2,897 5 16,634 2,419 5
Apr-33 19,021 2,589 5 22,613 2,864 5 16,626 2,406 5
May-33 19,019 2,590 5 22,611 2,865 5 16,625 2,407 5
Jun-33 19,056 2,592 5 22,669 2,867 5 16,647 2408 5
Jul-33 18,976 2595 5 22,542 2,873 5 16,599 2,410 5
Aug-33 18,968 2,597 5 22,529 2,877 5 16,594 2,411 5
Sep-33 18,982 2.602 5 22,550 2,884 5 16,603 2,414 5
Oct-33 19,021 2,603 5 22,613 2,886 5 16,626 2,415 5
Nov-33 19,165 2,603 5 22,844 2,886 5 16,713 2,415 5
Dec-33 19,288 2,611 5 23,041 2,899 5 16,787 2,420 5
Jan-34 19,191 2,618 5 22,885 2,909 5 16,728 2,424 5
Feb-34 19,242 2,616 5 22,966 2,906 5 16,759 2,422 5
Mar-34 19,264 2,627 5 23,001 2,924 5 16,772 2,429 5
Apr-34 19,250 2,606 5 22.979 2,891 5 16,764 2,416 5
May-34 19,249 2,607 5 22.977 2,893 5 16,763 2,417 5
Jun-34 19,285 2,608 5 23.036 2,894 5 16,785 2,418 5
Jul-34 19,205 2,612 5 22,907 2,900 5 16,736 2,420 5
Aug-34 19,197 2,614 5 22,894 2,904 5 16,732 2,421 5
Sep-34 19,210 2,619 5 22,916 2,911 5 16,740 2.424 5
Oct-34 19,250 2,620 5 22,979 2,913 5 16,764 2,425 5
Nov-34 19,396 2,620 5 23,213 2,913 5 16,851 2,425 5
Dec-34 19,521 2.628 5 23,412 2,926 5 16,926 2,430 5
Jan-35 19,418 2,635 5 23,249 2.936 5 16,865 2,434 5
Feb-35 19,469 2,632 5 23,331 2.933 5 16,895 2,432 5
Mar-35 19,492 2,644 5 23,366 2,951 5 16,909 2,439 5
Apr-35 19,478 2,623 5 23,344 2,918 5 16,900 2,427 5
May-35 19,476 2,624 5 23,342 2,919 5 16,899 2,427 5
Jun-35 19,514 2.625 5 23,401 2,921 5 16,922 2.428 5
Jul-35 19,432 2,629 5 23,271 2,927 5 16,873 2,430 5
Aug-35 19,424 2,631 5 23,258 2,931 5 16,868 2,432 5
Sep-35 19,438 2,636 5 23,280 2,938 5 16,876 2,434 5
Oct-35 19,478 2,637 5 23,344 2,940 5 16,900 2,435 5
Nov-35 19,626 2,637 5 23,581 2,940 5 16,989 2,435 5
Dec-35 19,752 2,645 5 23,782 ?,953 5 17,065 2.440 5
26 II CHAPTER3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Kiamath Klamath Klamath
Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-12 14,147 1,668 7 14,317 1,678 7 14,034 1,662 7
Feb-12 14137 1,675 8 14,301 1,689 8 14,028 1,666 8
Mar-12 14169 1,666 6 14,352 1,674 6 14,047 1,660 6
Apr-12 14,126 1,671 7 14,283 1,682 7 14,021 1,663 7
May-12 14,139 1,669 7 14,304 1,679 7 14,029 1,662 7
Jun-12 14,054 1,663 7 14,168 1,670 7 13,978 1659 7
Jul-12 14,008 1,663 7 14,094 1670 7 13,950 1,659 7
Aug-12 13,904 1,665 7 13,928 1,673 7 13,888 1,660 7
Sep-12 13,910 1.671 7 13,938 1682 7 13,892 1,663 7
Oct-12 14,014 1.672 7 14,104 1,684 7 13,954 1,664 7
Nov-12 14,179 1.675 7 14,368 1,689 7 14,053 1,666 7
Dec-12 14,296 1,679 7 14,555 1,695 7 14,123 1,668 7
Jan-13 14,297 1,693 7 14,557 1,718 7 14,124 1,677 7
Feb-13 14,287 1,700 8 14,541 1,729 8 14,118 1,681 8
Mar-13 14,319 1,691 6 14,592 1,714 6 14,137 1,675 6
Apr-13 14,276 1,696 7 14,523 1,722 7 14,111 1,678 7
May-13 14,289 1,694 7 14,544 1,719 7 14,119 1,677 7
Jun-13 14,229 1,688 7 14,448 1,710 7 14,083 1,674 7
Jul-13 14,183 1,688 7 14,374 1,710 7 14,055 1,674 7
Aug-13 14,079 1,690 7 14,208 1,713 7 13,993 1,675 7
Sep-13 14,085 1,696 7 14,218 1,722 7 13,997 1,678 7
Oct-13 14,214 1,697 7 14,424 1,724 7 14,074 1,679 7
Nov-13 14,404 1,700 7 14,728 1,729 7 14,188 1,681 7
Dec-13 14,521 1,704 7 14,915 1,735 7 14,258 1,683 7
Jan-14 14,547 1,723 7 14,957 1,766 7 14,274 1,695 7
Feb-14 14,537 1,730 8 14,941 1,777 8 14,268 1,699 8
Mar-14 14,569 1,721 6 14,992 1,762 6 14,287 1,693 6
Apr-14 14,526 1,726 7 14,923 1,770 7 14,261 1,696 7
May-14 14.539 1,724 7 14,944 1,767 7 14,269 1695 7
Jun-14 14,479 1,718 7 14,848 1,758 7 14,233 1,692 7
Jul-14 14,433 1,718 7 14.774 1,758 7 14.205 1,692 7
Aug-14 14,329 1,720 7 14,608 1,761 7 14,143 1,693 7
Sep-14 14,335 1,726 7 14,618 1.770 7 14,147 1 696 7
Oct-14 14,464 1,727 7 14,824 1,772 7 14,224 1,697 7
Nov-14 14,654 1,730 7 15,128 1,777 7 14,338 1.699 7
Dec-14 14,771 1,734 7 15,315 1,783 7 14,408 1,701 7
Jan-15 14,822 1,753 7 15,397 1,814 7 14,439 1,713 7
Feb-15 14,812 1,760 8 15,381 1,825 8 14,433 1,717 8
Mar-15 14,844 1,751 6 15,432 1,810 6 14,452 1.711 5
Apr-15 14,801 1,756 7 15,363 1,818 7 14,426 1,714 7
May-15 14,814 1,754 7 15,384 1.815 7 14,434 1,713 7
Jun-15 14,754 1,748 7 15,288 1,806 7 14,398 1,710 7
Jul-15 14,708 1,748 7 15,214 1,806 7 14,370 1,710 7
Aug-15 14.604 1,750 7 15,048 1,809 7 14,308 1,711 7
Sep-15 14,610 1,756 7 15,058 1,818 7 14,312 1,714 7
Oct-15 14,739 1,757 7 15.264 1,820 7 14,389 1.715 7
Nov-15 14,929 1,760 7 15,568 1,825 7 14,503 1,717 7
Dec-15 15,046 1,764 7 15,755 1.831 7 14,573 1,719 7
2012 AvI5TA NATURAL GAS IRP II 27
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Kiamath Kiamath Kiamath Kiamath Kiamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath
Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-16 15091 1778 7 15827 1854 7 14600 1,728 7
Feb-16 15,081 1,785 8 15,811 1,865 8 14,594 ‘1732 8
Mar-16 15,113 1,776 6 15,863 1,851 6 14,614 1,727 6
Apr-16 15,070 1,781 7 15793 1,859 7 14,587 1,730 7
May-16 15,083 1779 7 15,814 1,856 7 14,595 1,728 7
Jun-16 15,022 1,773 7 15,716 1,846 7 14,559 1,725 7
Jul-16 14,975 1,773 7 15,641 1,846 7 14,531 1,725 7
Aug-16 14,869 1,775 7 15,472 1,849 7 14,467 1,726 7
Sep-16 14,875 1,781 7 15,482 1,859 7 14,471 1,130 7
Oct-16 15,006 1,782 7 15,692 1,861 7 14,549 1,730 7
Nov-16 15,200 1,785 7 16,001 1,865 7 14,666 1,732 7
Dec-16 15,319 1,789 7 16,192 1,872 7 14,737 1,734 7
Jan-17 15,345 1,802 7 16,234 1,892 7 14,753 1,742 7
Feb-17 15,335 1,809 8 16,217 1,904 8 14,746 1,746 8
Mar-17 15,368 1,800 6 16,270 1,889 6 14,766 1,741 6
Apr-17 15,323 1,805 7 16,199 1897 7 14,740 1,744 7
May-17 15,337 1,803 7 16,220 1,894 7 14,748 1,743 7
Jun-17 15,275 1,797 7 16,121 1,884 7 14,710 1,739 7
Jul-17 15,227 1,797 7 16,045 1,884 7 14,682 1,739 7
Aug-17 15,119 1,799 7 15,873 1,887 7 14,617 1,740 7
Sep-17 15,126 1,805 7 15,882 1,897 7 14,621 1,744 7
Oct-17 15,259 1,806 7 16,096 1,899 7 14,701 1,745 7
Nov-17 15,456 1,809 7 16,411 1,904 7 14,819 1,746 7
Dec-17 15,577 1,813 7 16,605 1,910 7 14,892 1,749 7
Jan-18 15,587 1,825 7 16,620 1,929 7 14,898 1,756 7
Feb-18 15,576 1,832 8 16,604 1,940 8 14,891 1,760 8
Mar-18 15,610 1,823 6 16,657 1,925 6 14,912 1,754 6
Apr-18 15,565 1,828 7 16,585 1,934 7 14,884 1,758 7
May-18 15,578 1,826 7 16,607 1,930 7 14,893 1,756 7
Jun-18 15,515 1,820 7 16,506 1,920 7 14,855 1,753 7
Jul-18 15,467 1,820 7 16,429 1,920 7 14,826 1,753 7
Aug-18 15,358 1,822 7 16,254 1,924 7 14,760 1,754 7
Sep-18 15,364 1,828 7 16,264 1,934 7 14,764 1,758 7
Oct-18 15,499 1,829 7 16,481 1,935 7 14,845 1,758 7
Nov-18 15699 1,832 7 16,800 1,940 7 14,965 1,760 7
Dec-18 15,822 1,836 7 16,997 1,947 7 15,039 1,763 7
Jan-19 15,828 1,847 7 17,006 1,965 7 15,042 1,769 7
Feb-19 15,817 1,855 8 16,989 1,977 8 15,036 1,774 8
Mar-19 15,851 1,845 6 17,044 1,961 6 15,056 1,768 6
Apr-19 15,806 1,851 7 16,970 1,970 7 15,029 1,771 7
May-19 15,819 1,849 7 16,993 1,966 7 15,037 1,770 7
Jun-19 15,755 1,842 7 16,890 1,956 7 14,999 1,766 7
Jul-19 15,706 1,842 7 16,812 1,956 7 14,969 1,766 7
Aug-19 15,595 1,844 7 16,634 1.960 7 14,903 1,767 7
Sep-19 15,602 1,851 7 16,644 1,970 7 14,907 1,771 7
Oct-19 15,739 1,852 7 16,865 1,972 7 14,989 1,772 7
Nov-19 15,942 1,855 7 17,189 1,977 7 15,111 1,774 7
Dec-19 16,067 1,859 7 17,389 1.983 7 15,186 1,776 7
28 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Klamatli Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath
Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-20 16,068 1,870 7 17,391 2,001 7 15,186 1.783 7
Feb-20 16,057 1,878 8 17,373 2,013 8 15,180 1,787 8
Mar-20 16,092 1,868 6 17,429 1,997 6 15,201 1,782 6
Apr-20 16,045 1,873 7 17,354 2,006 7 15,173 1,785 7
May-20 16,059 1,871 7 17,377 2,003 7 15,181 1,783 7
Jun-20 15,994 1,865 7 17,273 1,992 7 15,142 1,780 7
Jul-20 15,945 1,865 7 17,193 1,992 7 15,112 1,780 7
Aug-20 15,832 1,867 7 17,012 1,996 7 15.045 1.781 7
Sep-20 15,838 1.873 7 17.023 2.006 7 15,049 1,785 7
Oct-20 15,978 1,874 7 17,247 2,008 7 15,132 1,785 7
Nov-20 16,184 1878 7 17.576 2.013 7 15,256 1.787 7
Dec-20 16,311 1.882 7 17,779 2,020 7 15,332 1.790 7
Jan-21 16,306 1,892 7 17,771 2,037 7 15,329 1,796 7
Feb-21 16,295 1,900 8 17,753 2,049 8 15.323 1,801 8
Mar-21 16,330 1,890 6 17,810 2,033 6 15.344 1,795 6
Apr-21 16,283 1,896 7 17.734 2,042 7 15,315 1,798 7
May-21 16,297 1,893 7 17,757 2,038 7 15.324 1,797 7
Jun-21 16,231 1,887 7 17,651 2.028 7 15,284 1,793 7
Jul-21 16.180 1,887 7 17,570 2,028 7 15,254 1,793 7
Aug-21 16,066 1,889 7 17.387 2,031 7 15.185 1,794 7
Sep-21 16,073 1,896 7 17,398 2,042 7 15.189 1,798 7
Oct-21 16,215 1,897 7 17,625 2,044 7 15.274 1.799 7
Nov-21 16,424 1,900 7 17,959 2,049 7 15,400 1,801 7
Dec-21 16,552 1,904 7 18.165 2.056 7 15,477 1,803 7
Jan-22 16,542 1,915 7 18,148 2,072 7 15,471 1,810 7
Feb-22 16.530 1,922 8 18,130 2.084 8 15.464 1,814 8
Mar-22 16.566 1,912 6 18.187 2,069 6 15.485 1,808 6
Apr-22 16.518 1,918 7 18,111 2,077 7 15,456 1,811 7
May-22 16.533 1,916 7 18,134 2,074 7 15,465 1,810 7
Jun-22 16,466 1,909 7 18,027 2,063 7 15,425 1,806 7
Jul-22 16,414 1,909 7 17,945 2,063 7 15.394 1,806 7
Aug-22 16,298 1,911 7 17,759 2,067 7 15,325 1.808 7
Sep-22 16.305 1,918 7 17,770 2,077 7 15,329 1,811 7
Oct-22 16,449 1,919 7 18,000 2,079 7 15,415 1,812 7
Nov-22 16.661 1.922 7 18,339 2,084 7 15,542 1,814 7
Dec-22 16,792 1,927 7 18,548 2,091 7 15,621 1.817 7
Jan-23 16,777 1,937 7 18,525 2,107 7 15,612 1,823 7
Feb-23 16,766 1,944 8 18,507 2,120 8 15,605 1,827 8
Mar-23 16.802 1,934 6 18,565 2,104 6 15,627 1,821 6
Apr-23 16,753 1,940 7 18,487 2,113 7 15,598 1,825 7
May-23 16,768 1,938 7 18,510 2,109 7 15,606 1,823 7
Jun-23 16,700 1,931 7 18,402 2,099 7 15,566 1,819 7
Jul-23 16,648 1,931 7 18,318 2,099 7 15,534 1.819 7
Aug-23 16,530 1,933 7 18,130 2,102 7 15,464 1,821 7
Sep-23 16,537 1,940 7 18,141 2,113 7 15,468 1.825 7
Oct-23 16,683 1,941 7 18,375 2,115 7 15,555 1,825 7
Nov-23 16,898 1,944 7 18,719 2,120 7 15,684 1,827 7
Dec-23 17,031 1,949 7 18,931 2,127 7 15,764 1.830 7
2012 AvI5TA NATURAL GAS IRP II 29
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath KiamathFallsFallsFallsFallsFallsFallsFallsFallsFalls
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-24 17014 1,959 7 18,904 2,143 7 15,754 1,836 7
Feb-24 17,002 1,967 8 18,885 2,156 8 15,747 1,841 8
Mar-24 17,039 1,957 6 18,944 2,139 6 15,769 1,835 6
Apr-24 16,990 1,962 7 18,865 2,148 7 15,739 1,838 7
May-24 17,005 1,960 7 18,889 2,145 7 15,748 1,837 7
Jun-24 16,936 1.953 7 18,779 2,134 7 15,707 1,833 7
Jul-24 16,883 1,953 7 18,694 2,134 7 15,675 1,833 7
Aug-24 16,764 1,956 7 18,503 2,138 7 15,604 1834 7
Sep-24 16,770 1,962 7 18,514 2,148 7 15,608 1,838 7
Oct-24 16,918 1,963 7 18,751 2,150 7 15,697 1,839 7
Nov-24 17,137 1,967 7 19,100 2,156 7 15,828 1.841 7
Dec-24 17,271 1,971 7 19,315 2,163 7 15,908 1,844 7
Jan-25 17,251 1,981 7 19,284 2,179 7 15,896 1,850 7
Feb-25 17,240 1,989 8 19,265 2,191 8 15,889 1,854 8
Mar-25 17,277 1,979 6 19,325 2,175 6 15,912 1,848 6
Apr-25 17,227 1,985 7 19,245 2,184 7 15,882 1,852 7
May-25 17,242 1,982 7 19,269 2,181 7 15,891 1,850 7
Jun-25 17,172 1,976 7 19,157 2,170 7 15,849 1,846 7
Jul-25 17,119 1,976 7 19,071 2,170 7 15,817 1,846 7
Aug-25 16,998 1,978 7 18,878 2,173 7 15,744 1,847 7
Sep-25 17,005 1,985 7 18,889 2,184 7 15,748 1,852 7
Oct-25 17,155 1,986 7 19,129 2,186 7 15,838 1,852 7
Nov-25 17,376 1,989 7 19,483 2,191 7 15,971 1,854 7
Dec-25 17,512 1,994 7 19,701 2,199 7 16,053 1,857 7
Jan-26 17,489 2,004 7 19,664 2,214 7 16,039 1,863 7
Feb-26 17,477 2,012 8 19,645 2,227 8 16,032 1,868 8
Mar-26 17,515 2,001 6 19,706 2,211 6 16,055 1,862 6
Apr-26 17,464 2,007 7 19,624 2,220 7 16,024 1,865 7
May-26 17,480 2.005 7 19,649 2,216 7 16,033 1,864 7
Jun-26 17,409 1,998 7 19,536 2,205 7 15,991 1,859 7
Jul-26 17,355 1,998 7 19,449 2,205 7 15,958 1,859 7
Aug-26 17,232 2,000 7 19,253 2,209 7 15,885 1,861 7
Sep-26 17,239 2,007 7 19,264 2,220 7 15,889 1,865 7
Oct-26 17,391 2.008 7 19,507 2,222 7 15,980 1,866 7
Nov-26 17,615 2012 7 19,866 2,227 7 16,115 1,868 7
Dec-26 17,753 2,016 7 20,087 2,235 7 16,198 1,870 7
Jan-27 17,725 2,026 7 20,042 2,250 7 16,181 1,876 7
Feb-27 17,713 2,034 8 20,023 2,263 8 16,174 1,881 8
Mar-27 17,752 2,023 6 20,084 2,246 6 16,197 1,875 6
Apr-27 17,700 2,029 7 20,002 2,256 7 16,166 1,878 7
May-27 17,716 2,027 7 20,027 2,252 7 16,175 1,877 7
Jun-27 17,644 2,020 7 19,912 2,241 7 16,132 1,873 7
Jul-27 17,589 2,020 7 19,824 2,241 7 16,099 1,873 7
Aug-27 17,465 2,022 7 19,625 2,244 7 16,024 1,874 7
Sep-27 17,472 2,029 7 19,636 2,256 7 16,029 1,878 7
Oct-27 17,626 2,030 7 19,883 2,257 7 16.121 1,879 7
Nov-27 17,853 2,034 7 20,247 2,263 7 16,258 1,881 7
Dec-27 17,993 2,038 7 20,471 2,270 7 16,342 1,884 7
30 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FAI.LS
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Kiamath Klamath
Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-28 17958 2048 7 20,414 2,285 7 16,320 1,889 7
Feb-28 17,945 2,056 8 20394 2298 8 16,313 1,894 8
Mar-28 17,984 2,045 6 20,456 2281 6 16,336 1,888 6
Apr-28 17,932 2,051 7 20,373 2,290 7 16,305 1,891 7
May-28 17,948 2,049 7 20,398 2287 7 16,314 1890 7
Jun-28 17,875 2,042 7 20,282 2,276 7 16,271 1,886 7
Jul-28 17,819 2,042 7 20,193 2,276 7 16,237 1,886 7
Aug-28 17,693 2,044 7 19,991 2,279 7 16,162 1,887 7
Sep-28 17,701 2,051 7 20,003 2,290 7 16,166 1891 7
Oct-28 17,857 2,052 7 20,253 2,292 7 16,260 1,892 7
Nov-28 18,087 2.056 7 20,621 2,298 7 16,398 1,894 7
Dec-28 18,229 2,060 7 20,848 2,305 7 16,483 1,897 7
Jan-29 18,186 2,069 7 20780 2319 7 16,457 1,902 7
Feb-29 18,174 2,077 8 20,760 2,332 8 16,450 1,907 8
Mar-29 18,213 2,067 6 20,823 2,315 6 16,474 1,901 6
Apr-29 18,160 2,073 7 20,738 2,325 7 16,442 1,904 7
May-29 18,176 2,070 7 20,764 2,321 7 16,451 1,903 7
Jun-29 18,103 2,063 7 20,646 2,310 7 16,407 1,899 7
Jul-29 18,046 2,063 7 20,556 2,310 7 16,373 1899 7
Aug-29 17,919 2065 7 20,352 2314 7 16,297 1,900 7
Sep-29 17,926 2,073 7 20,363 2,325 7 16,301 1904 7
Oct-29 18,084 2,074 7 20,617 2,327 7 16,396 1,905 7
Nov-29 18,317 2,077 7 20,990 2.332 7 16,536 1,907 7
Dec-29 18,461 2,082 7 21,219 2,340 7 16,622 1,910 7
Jan-30 18,414 2.090 7 21,144 2,353 7 16,594 1,915 7
Feb-30 18,402 2,099 8 21,124 2,367 8 16,587 1,920 8
Mar-30 18,441 2,088 6 21,188 2,350 6 16,610 1,914 6
Apr-30 18,388 2,094 7 21,102 2,359 7 16,578 1,917 7
May-30 18,404 2,092 7 21,128 2,355 7 16,588 1,916 7
Jun-30 18,330 2,084 7 21,009 2,344 7 16,543 1,911 7
Jul-30 18,272 2,084 7 20,917 2,344 7 16,509 1,911 7
Aug-30 18,143 2,087 7 20,711 2,348 7 16,432 1,913 7
Sep-30 18,151 2.094 7 20,723 2,359 7 16,436 1,917 7
Oct-30 18,311 2,095 7 20,979 2,361 7 16,532 1,918 7
Nov-30 18,547 2,099 7 21,357 2,367 7 16,674 1,920 7
Dec-30 18,692 2,104 7 21,589 2,374 7 16,761 1,923 7
Jan-31 18,642 2,112 7 21,509 2,388 7 16,731 1,928 7
Feb-31 18,630 2.120 8 21,489 2,401 8 16,723 1,933 8
Mar-31 18,670 2,109 6 21,554 2,384 6 16,748 1.926 6
Apr-31 18,616 2,115 7 21,467 2,394 7 16,715 1,930 7
May-31 18,632 2,113 7 21,493 2,390 7 16,725 1,929 7
Jun-31 18,557 2,106 7 21.373 2,378 7 16,680 1,924 7
Jul-31 18,499 2,106 7 21,280 2,378 7 16,645 1,924 7
Aug-31 18,368 2,108 7 21,071 2,382 7 16,567 1,926 7
Sep-31 18.376 2,115 7 21,083 2,394 7 16,571 1,930 7
Oct-31 18,538 2,117 7 21,342 2,396 7 16,668 1,931 7
Nov-31 18,777 2,120 7 21,725 2,401 7 16,812 1,933 7
Dec-31 18.924 2,125 7 21,960 2,409 7 16,900 1,936 7
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 31
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
Klamath Kiamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Klamath Kiamath Kiamath Klamath
Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-32 18,868 2,133 7 21,871 2,422 7 16,867 1,941 7
Feb-32 18,856 2,142 8 21,851 2,435 8 16,859 1,946 8
Mar-32 18,896 2,131 6 21,916 2,418 6 16,883 1,939 6
Apr-32 18,842 2,137 7 21,828 2,428 7 16,851 1,943 7
May-32 18,858 2134 7 21,855 2,424 7 16,861 1,941 7
Jun-32 18,782 2,127 7 21,732 2,412 7 16,815 1,937 7
Jul-32 18,723 2,127 7 21,639 2,412 7 16,780 1937 7
Aug-32 18,591 2,129 7 21,427 2,416 7 16,700 1,938 7
Sep-32 18,598 2,137 7 21,439 2,428 7 16,705 1,943 7
Oct-32 18,763 2,138 7 21,702 2,430 7 16,803 1,944 7
Nov-32 19,005 2,142 7 22,089 2,435 7 16,948 1,946 7
Dec-32 19,154 2,146 7 22,327 2,443 7 17,038 1,949 7
Jan-33 19,097 2.155 7 22,237 2.456 7 17,004 1,954 7
Feb-33 19,084 2,163 8 22,216 2,470 8 16,996 1,959 8
Mar-33 19,125 2,152 6 22,282 2,452 6 17,021 1,952 6
Apr-33 19,070 2,158 7 22,193 2,462 7 16,988 1,956 7
May-33 19,087 2,156 7 22,220 2,458 7 16,998 1,954 7
Jun-33 19,009 2,148 7 22,097 2,446 7 16,951 1,950 7
Jul-33 18,950 2,148 7 22,002 2,446 7 16,916 1,950 7
Aug-33 18,816 2,151 7 21,787 2,450 7 16,835 1,951 7
Sep-33 18,824 2,158 7 21,800 2,462 7 16,840 1,956 7
Oct-33 18,990 2,159 7 22,066 2,464 7 16,940 1,956 7
Nov-33 19,235 2,163 7 22,457 2,470 7 17,087 1,959 7
Dec-33 19,386 2,168 7 22,699 2,478 7 17,177 1,962 7
Jan-34 19,326 2,176 7 22,604 2,491 7 17,141 1,966 7
Feb-34 19,313 2,185 8 22,583 2,505 8 17,134 1,972 8
Mar-34 19,355 2,174 6 22,650 2,487 6 17,159 1,965 6
Apr-34 19,299 2,180 7 22,560 2,497 7 17,125 1,969 7
May-34 19,316 2,177 7 22,587 2,493 7 17,135 1,967 7
Jun-34 19,238 2,170 7 22,462 2,481 7 17,088 1,963 7
Jul-34 19,178 2,170 7 22,366 2,481 7 17,052 1.963 7
Aug-34 19,042 2,172 7 22,149 2,485 7 16,971 1,964 7
Sep-34 19,050 2,180 7 22,162 2,497 7 16,976 1,969 7
Oct-34 19.218 2,181 7 22,431 2,499 7 17,076 1,969 7
Nov-34 19,466 2,185 7 22,827 2,505 7 17,225 1,972 7
Dec-34 19,618 2,190 7 23,071 2,512 7 17,317 1,975 7
Jan-35 19,555 2,198 7 22,970 2,525 7 17,279 1,979 7
Feb-35 19.542 2,206 8 22,948 2,539 8 17,271 1,985 8
Mar-35 19,584 2,195 6 23,016 2,521 6 17,296 1,978 6
Apr-35 19,527 2,201 7 22,925 2,531 7 17,262 1,982 7
May-35 19,544 2,199 7 22,953 2,527 7 17,272 1,980 7
Jun-35 19,465 2,191 7 22,826 2 515 7 17,225 1,976 7
Jul-35 19,405 2,191 7 22,729 2,515 7 17,188 1,976 7
Aug-35 19,267 2,194 7 22,509 2,519 7 17,106 1,977 7
Sep-35 19,275 2,201 7 22,522 2,531 7 17,111 1,982 7
Oct-35 19,445 2,203 7 22,794 2,533 7 17,213 1,982 7
Nov-35 19,696 2,206 7 23,195 2,539 7 17,363 1.985 7
Dec-35 19,851 2.211 7 23,442 2,547 7 17,456 1,988 7
32 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LAGRANDE
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jan-12 6568 903 0 6627 911 0 6,529 898 0
Feb-12 6580 911 0 6,646 924 0 6,536 903 0
Mar-12 6,541 892 0 6,584 893 0 6,513 891 0
Apr-12 6,537 897 0 6,577 901 0 6,510 894 0
May-12 6,531 887 0 6,568 885 0 6,507 888 0
Jun-12 6,505 888 0 6,526 887 0 6,491 889 0
Jul-12 6,473 884 0 6,475 880 0 6,472 886 0
Aug-12 6,456 885 0 6,448 882 0 6,462 887 0
Sep-12 6,452 887 5 6,441 885 5 6,459 888 5
Oct-12 6,520 900 5 6,550 906 5 6,500 896 5
Nov-12 6,566 900 0 6624 906 0 6,528 896 0
Dec-12 6,609 906 0 6,692 916 0 6,553 900 0
Jan-13 6,618 918 0 6,707 935 0 6,559 90]0
Feb-13 6,630 926 0 6,726 948 0 6,566 912 0
Mar-13 6,591 907 0 6,664 911 0 6,543 900 0
Apr-13 6,587 912 0 6,657 925 0 6,540 903 0
May-13 6,581 902 0 6,648 909 0 6,537 891 0
Jun-i 3 6,555 903 0 6,606 911 0 6,521 898 0
Jul-13 6,523 899 0 6555 904 0 6,502 895 0
Aug-13 6,506 900 0 6,528 906 0 6,492 896 0
Sep-13 6,502 902 5 6,521 909 5 6,489 897 5
Oct-13 6,570 915 5 6,630 930 5 6,530 905 5
Nov-13 6,616 915 0 6,704 930 0 6,558 905 0
Dec-13 6,659 921 0 6,772 940 0 6,583 909 0
Jan-14 6,668 933 0 6,787 959 0 6,589 916 0
Feb-14 6,680 941 0 6,806 972 0 6,596 921 0
Mar-14 6,641 922 0 6,744 941 0 6,573 909 0
Apr-14 6,637 927 0 6,737 949 0 6,570 912 0
May-14 6,631 917 0 6,728 933 0 6,567 906 0
Jun-14 6,605 918 0 6,686 935 0 6,551 907 0
Jul-14 6,573 914 0 6,635 928 0 6,532 904 0
Aug-14 6,556 915 0 6,608 930 0 6,522 905 0
Sep-14 6,552 917 5 6,601 933 5 6,519 906 5
Oct-14 6,620 930 5 6,710 954 5 6,560 914 5
Nov-14 6,666 930 0 6,784 954 0 6,588 914 0
Dec-14 6,709 936 0 6,852 964 0 6,613 918 0
Jan-15 6,718 953 0 6,867 991 0 6,619 928 0
Feb-15 6,730 961 0 6,886 1,004 0 6,626 933 0
Mar-15 6,691 942 0 6,824 973 0 6,603 921 0
Apr-is 6,687 947 0 6,817 981 0 6,600 924 0
May-15 6,681 937 0 6,808 965 0 6,597 918 0
Jun-15 6,655 938 0 6,766 967 0 6,581 919 0
Jul-15 6,623 934 0 6,715 960 0 6,562 916 0
Aug-15 6,606 935 0 6,688 962 0 6,552 917 0
Sep-15 6,602 937 5 6,681 965 5 6,549 918 5
Oct-15 6,670 950 5 6,790 986 5 6,590 926 5
Nov-15 6,716 950 0 6,864 986 0 6,618 926 0
Dec-15 6,759 956 0 6,932 996 0 6,643 930 0
Jan-16 6,777 966 0 6,962 1,012 0 6,654 936 0
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 33
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LAGRANDE
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Feb-16 6,789 974 0 6,981 1,025 0 6,662 940 0
Mar-16 6,750 955 0 6,918 994 0 6,638 929 0
Apr-16 6,746 960 0 6,912 1,002 0 6,636 932 0
May-16 6,740 950 0 6,902 986 0 6,632 926 0
Jun-16 6,714 951 0 6,860 987 0 6,616 926 0
Jul-16 6,681 947 0 6,808 981 0 6,597 924 0
Aug-16 6,664 948 0 6,781 982 0 6,587 925 0
Sep-16 6,660 950 5 6,775 986 5 6,584 926 5
Oct-16 6,729 963 5 6,884 1,007 5 6,625 934 5
Nov-16 6,775 963 0 6,959 1,007 0 6,653 934 0
Dec-16 6,819 969 0 7,028 1,017 0 6,679 937 0
Jan-17 6,832 978 0 7,049 1,031 0 6,687 943 0
Feb-17 6,844 986 0 7,069 1,044 0 6,694 948 0
Mar-17 6,804 967 0 7,005 1,013 0 6,671 936 0
Apr-17 6,800 972 0 6,999 1,021 0 6,668 939 0
May-17 6,794 962 0 6,989 1,005 0 6,665 933 0
Jun-17 6,768 963 0 6,946 1,006 0 6,649 934 0
Jul-17 6,735 959 0 6,894 1,000 0 6,629 931 0
Aug-17 6,718 960 0 6,867 1,001 0 6,619 932 0
Sep-17 6,714 962 5 6,860 1,005 5 6,616 933 5
Oct-17 6,783 975 5 6,971 1,026 5 6,658 941 5
Nov-17 6,830 975 0 7,046 1,026 0 6,686 941 0
Dec-17 6,874 981 0 7,116 1,036 0 6,712 945 0
Jan-18 6,883 989 0 7,130 1,049 0 6,718 950 0
Feb-18 6,895 997 0 7,150 1,062 0 6,725 954 0
Mar-18 6,855 978 0 7,086 1,030 0 6,701 943 0
Apr-18 6,851 983 0 7,080 1,039 0 6,699 946 0
May-18 6,845 973 0 7,070 1,022 0 6,695 940 0
Jun-18 6,818 974 0 7,027 1,024 0 6,679 940 0
Jul-18 6,785 969 0 6,975 1,017 0 6,659 938 0
Aug-18 6,768 970 0 6,947 1,019 0 6,649 938 0
Sep-18 6,764 973 5 6,940 1,022 5 6,646 940 5
Oct-18 6,834 986 5 7,052 1,044 5 6,688 948 5
Nov-18 6,881 986 0 7,127 1,044 0 6,716 948 0
Dec-18 6,925 992 0 7,198 1,054 0 6,743 951 0
Jan-19 6,932 1,000 0 7,210 1,066 0 6,747 956 0
Feb-19 6,945 1,008 0 7,230 1,080 0 6,755 961 0
Mar-19 6,905 989 0 7,165 1.048 0 6,731 949 0
Apr-19 6,900 994 0 7,159 1,056 0 6,728 952 0
May-19 6,894 983 0 7,149 1,039 0 6,725 946 0
Jun-19 6,867 984 0 7,106 1,041 0 6,708 947 0
Jul-19 6,834 980 0 7,053 1,034 0 6,689 944 0
Aug-19 6,817 981 0 7,025 1,036 0 6,678 945 0
Sep-19 6,813 983 5 7,018 1,039 5 6,676 946 5
Oct-19 6,883 997 5 7,131 1,061 5 6,718 954 5
Nov-19 6,930 997 0 7,207 1,061 0 6,746 954 0
Dec-19 6,975 1,003 0 7,278 1,071 0 6,773 958 0
Jan-20 6,982 1,011 0 7,289 1,083 0 6.777 963 0
Feb-20 6,994 1,019 0 7,309 1,097 0 6,785 968 0
34 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Mar-20 6,954 999 0 7,244 1,065 0 6,760 956 0
Apr-20 6,950 1,005 0 7,237 1,073 0 6,758 959 0
May-20 6,943 994 0 7,227 1,056 0 6,754 952 0
Jun-20 6,916 995 0 7,184 1,058 0 6,738 953 0
Jul-20 6,883 991 0 7,131 1,051 0 6,718 950 0
Aug-20 6,865 992 0 7,103 1,053 0 6,707 951 0
Sep-20 6,861 994 5 7,096 1,056 5 6,705 952 5
Oct-20 6,932 1,008 5 7,209 1,078 5 6,747 961 5
Nov-20 6,980 1,008 0 7,285 1,078 0 6,776 961 0
Dec-20 7,024 1014 0 7,357 1.089 0 6,803 964 0
Jan-21 7,030 1,022 0 7,366 1,100 0 6,806 969 0
Feb-21 7,043 1,030 0 7,386 1,114 0 6,814 974 0
Mar-21 7,002 1,010 0 7,321 1,082 0 6,789 962 0
Apr-21 6,998 1,015 0 7,314 1,090 0 6,787 965 0
May-21 6,991 1,004 0 7,304 1,073 0 6,783 959 0
Jun-21 6,964 1,005 0 7,261 1,075 0 6,767 959 0
Jul-21 6,931 1,001 0 7,207 1,068 0 6,746 957 0
Aug-21 6,913 1,002 0 7,179 1,070 0 6,736 957 0
Sep-21 6,909 1,004 5 7,172 1,073 5 6,733 959 5
Oct-21 6,980 1,018 5 7,286 1,095 5 6,776 967 5
Nov-21 7,028 1,018 0 7,363 1,095 0 6,805 967 0
Dec-21 7,073 1,025 0 7,435 1,106 0 6,832 971 0
Jan-22 7,078 1,032 0 7,443 1,117 0 6,835 975 0
Feb-22 7091 1,041 0 7,463 1,131 0 6,842 980 0
Mar-22 7,049 1,020 0 7,397 1,098 0 6,818 968 0
Apr-22 7,045 1,026 0 7,390 1,107 0 6,815 971 0
May-22 7,039 1,015 0 7,380 1,090 0 6,811 965 0
Jun-22 7,012 1,016 0 7,336 1,091 0 6,795 965 0
Jul-22 6,978 1.011 0 7,283 1,084 0 6,775 963 0
Aug-22 6,960 1,013 0 7,254 1,086 0 6,764 964 0
Sep-22 6,956 1,015 5 7,247 1,090 5 6,761 965 5
Oct-22 7,027 1,029 5 7,362 1,112 5 6,804 973 5
Nov-22 7,076 1,029 0 7,439 1,112 0 6,833 973 0
Dec-22 7,121 1035 0 7,512 1,122 0 6,861 977 0
Jan-23 7,125 1,042 0 7,518 1,134 0 6,863 981 0
Feb-23 7,138 1,051 0 7,539 1,148 0 6,871 987 0
Mar-23 7,097 1,030 0 7,473 1,115 0 6,846 974 0
Apr-23 7,092 1,036 0 7,466 1,123 0 6,843 978 0
May-23 7,086 1,025 0 7,456 1,106 0 6,840 971 0
Jun-23 7,058 1,026 0 7,411 1,108 0 6,823 972 0
Jul-23 7,024 1,022 0 7,357 1,101 0 6,803 969 0
Aug-23 7,006 1,023 0 7,328 1,102 0 6,792 970 0
Sep-23 7,002 1,025 5 7,322 1,106 5 6,789 971 5
Oct-23 7,074 1,039 5 7,437 1,129 5 6833 979 5
Nov-23 7,123 1,039 0 7,515 1,129 0 6,862 979 0
Dec-23 7,169 1,046 0 7,588 1,139 0 6,889 983 0
Jan-24 7,172 1,053 0 7,594 1,150 0 6,891 988 0
Feb-24 7,185 1,062 0 7,614 1,165 0 6,899 993 0
Mar-24 7,143 1,041 0 7,548 1,131 0 6,874 980 0
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 35
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Apr-24 7139 1046 0 7,541 1,140 0 6,872 984 0
May-24 7,133 1,035 0 7,530 1,122 0 6,868 977 0
Jun-24 7,105 1,036 0 7,486 1,124 0 6,851 978 0
Jul-24 7,071 1,032 0 7,431 1,117 0 6,831 975 0
Aug-24 7,053 1,033 0 7,402 1,119 0 6,820 976 0
Sep-24 7,048 1,035 5 7,395 1,122 5 6,817 977 5
Oct-24 7,121 1.049 5 7,512 1,145 5 6,861 986 5
Nov-24 7,170 1,049 0 7,590 1,145 0 6,890 986 0
Dec-24 7,216 1,056 0 7,664 1,156 0 6,918 990 0
Jan-25 7,219 1,063 0 7,669 1,167 0 6,919 994 0
Feb-25 7,232 1.072 0 7,689 1,181 0 6,927 999 0
Mar-25 7,190 1,051 0 7,622 1,147 0 6,902 986 0
Apr-25 7,186 1,056 0 7,615 1,156 0 6,900 990 0
May-25 7,179 1.045 0 7,605 1,138 0 6,896 983 0
Jun-25 7,151 1,046 0 7,560 1,140 0 6,879 984 0
Jul-25 7,117 1,042 0 7,505 1,133 0 6,858 981 0
Aug-25 7,099 1,043 0 7,476 1,135 0 6,847 982 0
Sep-25 7,095 1,045 5 7,469 1,138 5 6,845 983 5
Oct-25 7,168 1,060 5 7,586 1,162 5 6,889 992 5
Nov-25 7,217 1,060 0 7,665 1,162 0 6,918 992 0
Dec-25 7,263 1,066 0 7,739 1,172 0 6,946 996 0
Jan-26 7,266 1,073 0 7,743 1,183 0 6,947 1,000 0
Feb-26 7,279 1,082 0 7,764 1,198 0 6,955 1,005 0
Mar-26 7,237 1,061 0 7,697 1,163 0 6,930 993 0
Apr-26 7,232 1,067 0 7,690 1.172 0 6,927 996 0
May-26 7,226 1,055 0 7,679 1,154 0 6,923 989 0
Jun-26 7,198 1,056 0 7,634 1,156 0 6,907 990 0
Jul-26 7,163 1052 0 7,579 1,149 0 6,886 987 0
Aug-26 7,145 1,053 0 7,549 1,151 0 6,875 988 0
Sep-26 7,140 1,055 5 7,542 1,154 5 6,872 989 5
Oct-26 7,214 1.070 5 7,660 1,178 5 6,916 998 5
Nov-26 7,264 1,070 0 7,740 1,178 0 6,946 998 0
Dec-26 7,310 1,077 0 7,814 1,189 0 6,974 1,002 0
Jan-27 7,314 1,084 0 7,820 1,200 0 6,976 1,006 0
Feb-27 7,327 1,093 0 7,841 1,215 0 6,984 1,012 0
Mar-27 7,285 1,071 0 7,773 1,180 0 6,959 999 0
Apr-27 7,280 1,077 0 7,766 1,189 0 6,956 1,002 0
May-27 7,274 1,066 0 7,756 1,171 0 6,952 995 0
Jun-27 7,245 1,067 0 7,711 1,173 0 6,935 996 0
Jul-27 7,211 1,062 0 7,655 1,166 0 6,914 993 0
Aug-27 7,192 1,063 0 7,625 1,167 0 6,903 994 0
Sep-27 7,188 1,066 5 7,618 1,171 5 6,901 995 5
Oct-27 7,262 1,080 5 7,737 1,195 5 6,945 1,004 5
Nov-27 7,312 1,080 0 7,817 1,195 0 6,975 1,004 0
Dec-27 7,359 1,087 0 7,892 1,206 0 7,003 1,008 0
Jan-28 7,365 1,095 0 7,901 1,218 0 7,007 1,013 0
Feb-28 7,378 1,104 0 7,922 1,233 0 7,015 1,019 0
Mar-28 7,335 1.082 0 7,854 1,198 0 6,989 1,005 0
Apr-28 7,331 1,088 0 7,847 1,207 0 6,986 1,009 0
36 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial
La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande La Grande
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
May-28 7,324 1,077 0 7,837 1189 0 6,982 1002 0
Jun-28 7,296 1,078 0 7,791 1190 0 6,965 1,003 0
Jul-28 7,260 1,073 0 7,735 1,183 0 6,944 1,000 0
Aug-28 7,242 1,074 0 7,705 1,185 0 6,933 1,001 0
Sep-28 7,237 1,077 5 7,698 1189 5 6,930 1,002 5
Oct-28 7,312 1,092 5 7,817 1,212 5 6,975 1,011 5
Nov-28 7,362 1092 0 7,898 1,212 0 7,005 1,011 0
Dec-28 7,410 1,098 0 7,973 1,224 0 7,034 1,015 0
Jan-29 7,416 1,106 0 7,984 1,236 0 7,038 1,020 0
Feb-29 7,430 1,116 0 8,006 1,251 0 7,046 1,025 0
Mar-29 7,387 1,094 0 7,937 1,216 0 7,020 1,012 0
Apr-29 7,382 1,099 0 7,930 1,225 0 7,017 1,016 0
May-29 7,376 1,088 0 7,919 1,207 0 7,013 1 009 0
Jun-29 7,347 1,089 0 7,873 1,208 0 6,996 1,009 0
Jul-29 7,312 1,084 0 7,817 1,201 0 6,975 1,007 0
Aug-29 7,293 1,085 0 7,787 1,203 0 6,964 1,007 0
Sep-29 7,288 1,088 5 7,779 1,207 5 6,961 1,009 5
Oct-29 7,363 1,103 5 7,900 1,231 5 7,006 1,018 5
Nov-29 7,414 1,103 0 7,981 1,231 0 7,037 1,018 0
Dec-29 7,462 1,110 0 8,057 1,242 0 7,065 1,022 0
Jan-30 7,468 1.118 0 8,067 1,254 0 7,069 1,027 0
Feb-30 7,481 1,127 0 8,088 1,269 0 7,077 1,032 0
Mar-30 7,438 1,105 0 8,019 1,234 0 7,051 1,019 0
Apr-30 7,433 1,111 0 8,011 1,243 0 7,048 1,022 0
May-30 7,427 1,099 0 8,001 1,224 0 7,044 1,015 0
Jun-30 7,398 1,100 0 7,955 1,226 0 7,027 1,016 0
Jul-30 7,362 1,095 0 7,898 1,219 0 7,005 1,013 0
Aug-30 7343 1,097 0 7,867 1,221 0 6,994 1,014 0
Sep-30 7,339 1,099 5 7,860 1,224 5 6,991 1,015 5
Oct-30 7,415 1,114 5 7,981 1,249 5 7,037 1,024 5
Nov-30 7,466 1,114 0 8,063 1,249 0 7,067 1,024 0
Dec-30 7,513 1,121 0 8,140 1,260 0 7,096 1,029 0
Jan-31 7,519 1,129 0 8,149 1,272 0 7,100 1,033 0
Feb-31 7,533 1,138 0 8,170 1,287 0 7,108 1,039 0
Mar-31 7,489 1,116 0 8,100 1,251 0 7,081 1,026 0
Apr-31 7,484 1,122 0 8,093 1,261 0 7,079 1,029 0
May-31 7,478 1,110 0 8,082 1,242 0 7,075 1,022 0
Jun-31 7,449 1,111 0 8,036 1,244 0 7,057 1,023 0
Jul-31 7,413 1,106 0 7,979 1,236 0 7,036 1,020 0
Aug-31 7,394 1,108 0 7.948 1.238 0 7,024 1.021 0
Sep-31 7,389 1,110 5 7.941 1,242 5 7,022 1,022 5
Oct-31 7,465 1,125 5 8,063 1,267 5 7,067 1,031 5
Nov-31 7.517 1,125 0 8,145 1,267 0 7,098 1,031 0
Dec-31 7,565 1,132 0 8.222 1,278 0 7,127 1,035 0
Jan-32 7,570 1,140 0 8,230 1,290 0 7,130 1,040 0
Feb-32 7,584 1.150 0 8.252 1,305 0 7,138 1,046 0
Mar-32 7.540 1,127 0 8,181 1,269 0 7,112 1,032 0
Apr-32 7,535 1,133 0 8,174 1,279 0 7,109 1.036 0
May-32 7,528 1,121 0 8,163 1,260 0 7,105 1,029 0
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 37
APPENDIX 3.2 II CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LAGRANDE
Oregon -Oregon -Oregon -
Expected Growth High Growth Low Growth
Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial IndustrialLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrandeLaGrande
Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers Customers
Jun-32 7,499 1,122 0 8,116 1,261 0 7,087 1,029 0
Jul-32 7,463 1,117 0 8,059 1,254 0 7,066 1,026 0
Aug-32 7,444 1,119 0 8,028 1,256 0 7,054 1,027 0
Sep-32 7,439 1,121 5 8,021 1,260 5 7,052 1,029 5
Oct-32 7,516 1,137 5 8,143 1,284 5 7,098 1,038 5
Nov-32 7,568 1,137 0 8,226 1,284 0 7,129 1,038 0
Dec-32 7,616 1,144 0 8,304 1,296 0 7,158 1,042 0
Jan-33 7,621 1,151 0 8,312 1,308 0 7,161 1,047 0
Feb-33 7,635 1,161 0 8,334 1,324 0 7,169 1,053 0
Mar-33 7,591 1,138 0 8,263 1,287 0 7,142 1,039 0
Apr-33 7,586 1,144 0 8,256 1,297 0 7,140 1042 0
May-33 7,579 1,132 0 8,245 1,277 0 7,136 1,035 0
Jun-33 7,550 1,133 0 8,198 1,279 0 7,118 1,036 0
Jul-33 7,514 1,128 0 8,140 1,271 0 7,096 1,033 0
Aug-33 7,494 1,130 0 8,109 1,273 0 7,085 1,034 0
Sep-33 7,490 1,132 5 8,102 1,277 5 7,082 1,035 5
Oct-33 7,567 1,148 5 8,225 1,302 5 7,128 1,045 5
Nov-33 7,619 1,148 0 8,308 1,302 0 7,159 1,045 0
Dec-33 7,668 1,155 0 8,387 1,314 0 7,189 1,049 0
Jan-34 7,673 1,163 0 8,394 1,326 0 7,192 1,054 0
Feb-34 7,686 1,172 0 8,416 1,342 0 7,200 1,059 0
Mar-34 7,642 1.149 0 8,345 1,305 0 7,173 1,046 0
Apr-34 7,637 1,155 0 8,337 1,314 0 7,170 1,049 0
May-34 7,630 1,143 0 8,327 1,295 0 7,166 1,042 0
Jun-34 7,601 1,144 0 8,279 1,297 0 7,148 1,043 0
Jul-34 7,564 1,139 0 8,221 1,289 0 7,126 1,040 0
Aug-34 7,545 1,141 0 8,189 1,291 0 7,115 1,040 0
Sep-34 7,540 1,143 5 8,182 1,295 5 7,112 1,042 5
Oct-34 7,618 1,159 5 8,306 1,320 5 7,159 1,051 5
Nov-34 7,670 1,159 0 8,390 1,320 0 7,190 1,051 0
Dec-34 7,719 1,166 0 8,469 1,332 0 7,220 1,056 0
Jan-35 7,724 1,174 0 8,476 1,344 0 7,222 1,060 0
Feb-35 7,738 1,184 0 8,498 1,360 0 7,231 1,066 0
Mar-35 7,693 1,160 0 8,426 1,322 0 7,204 1,052 0
Apr-35 7,688 1,166 0 8,419 1,332 0 7,201 1,056 0
May-35 7,681 1,154 0 8,408 1,313 0 7,197 1,048 0
Jun-35 7,651 1,155 0 8,360 1,315 0 7,179 1,049 0
Jul-35 7,614 1,150 0 8,301 1,307 0 7,157 1,046 0
Aug-35 7,595 1,152 0 8,270 1,309 0 7,145 1.047 0
Sep-35 7,590 1.154 5 8,263 1,313 5 7,142 1,048 5
Oct-35 7,669 1,170 5 8,388 1,338 5 7,189 1,058 5
Nov-35 7,721 1,170 0 8,472 1,338 0 7,221 1,058 0
Dec-35 7,771 1,178 0 8,551 1,350 0 7,251 1.063 0
38 II CHAPTER 3 IJ APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.3 II DEMAND COEFFICIENTS
January February March April May June July August September October November December
HEAT COEFFICIENTS
WA/ID Res 0009844 0.008976 0.008870 0008029 0.005690 0003686 0.001174 0.000826 0.002388 0.006412 0.008695 0.009962
WAIIDCom 0.049978 0045349 0.043363 0037282 0024076 0.016817 0.004930 0,007713 0.019781 0036017 0042431 0,050435
WA/ID bid 0129009 0.115248 0 094806 0084501 0.041487 0.055783 0.044625 0132057 0198661 0.283820 0 164946 0.170180
Rose Res 0.010208 0.010184 0009517 0008514 0.006722 0.005038 0,000615 0.000049 0.001527 0004756 0.008477 0.010124
Rose Corn 0.041388 0.039173 0.037762 0 031763 0.022073 0010826 0.003070 0,002933 0020028 0.027221 0.036871 0 044178
Rose bid 0560088 0.639565 0609582 1794676 0.050434 0.307867 3.765089 4759543 4064708 1476627 1166407 0839549
M€dfojcjRes 00103873 00100818 00100326 00089329 00066631 00046337 00021118 00009412 00029039 00064739 00090313 00105071
Medford Corn 00404618 00406224 0.0364242 00292821 0 0221656 00144695 0 0106799 0 0095883 00213454 0 0383247 0 0390795 0 0420363
Medford bid 0 0000000 0 0000000 0.0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 000000(1 0 0000000 0,0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0.0000000
LaGrande Res 0.0087736 00081353 00080601 00074661 00054241 0.0033964 0.0004897 00105253 0.0007420 00030466 00077767 0.0089209
LaGrande Corn 0.0424449 00405465 0.0370305 00313249 00210792 0.0124668 0.009.4054 00766325 0 0081499 00183217 0 0346280 0.9402809
LaGrande bid 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 00000000 00000000 0.0000000 0 0000000 00000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 00000000 0.0000000
Klarmth Res 0006035 0007601 0007340 0000312 0004454 0002573 0000170 0000560 0001306 0004338 0006839 0007861
Klarruth Corn 0.031883 0030028 0027044 0021792 0013740 0004544 0000226 0006202 0008292 0023551 0.028058 0.031165
Klarreth nd 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0.0000000 0 0000000 0 0000000 0.0000000
BASE COEFFICIENTS
WA/ID l4es 0.055491 0 055491 0.055491 0 055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0 055491 0 055491
WA/ID Corn 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0346420 0.346420
WA/IDhid 3.651386 3651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386
Rose lIes 0 045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0 045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0 045476 0 045476
Rose Corn 0327449 0327449 0327449 0.327449 0327449 0327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0327449
Rosebid 19923195 19923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19923195 19.923195 19923195 19.923195 19.923195 19923195 19.923195
Medford Res 0047121 0047121 0047121 0047121 0.047121 0.047121 0 047121 0.047121 0047121 0047121 0047121 0.047121
Medford Corn 0.333897 0 333897 0 333897 0 333897 0.333897 0 333897 0 333897 0.333897 0.333897 0 333897 0 333897 0 333897
Medford bid 3 762345 3 762345 3 762345 3 762345 3.762345 3 762345 3.762345 3.762345 3 762345 3 762345 3 762345 3 762345
LaGrande Res 0 053749 0 053749 0 053749 0 053749 0.053749 0.053749 0 053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0 053749 0.053749
LaGrancie Corn 0.252881 0252881 0252861 0.252881 0,252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0252881 0252881
LaGrande bid 8 968306 8 968306 8 968306 8 968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8 968306 8 968306 8 968306
KlarmthRes 0.041313 0,041313 0.041313 0041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0041313 0.041313 0041313 0.041313
Kiarruth Corn 0,319781 0.319781 0319781 0319781 0319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781 0,319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781
Klarruthlnd 2,131761 2131761 2.131761 2131761 2131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761
SUPER PEAK 1/
WA/ID Res 0.009594 0 009594 0 009594
WA/ID Corn 0 048587 0.048587 0.048587
WA/IJ bid 0.138145 0.138145 0138145
RoselIes 0010172 0010172 0010172
RoseCom 0041580 0041580 0041580
Rose bid 0 679734 0 679734 0 679734
Medford lIes 0010325 0010325 0010325
Medford Corn 0041540 0041040 0,041040
bidford bid --
LaGrande lIes 0.008610 0008610 0008610
LaGrande Corn 0.041091 0.041091 0.041091
LaGrande bid
Klarnrnth lIes 0 007832 0.007832 0.007832
KIan’th Corn 0.031025 0.031025 0.031025
Klarnath bid ---
1/Average of D JAN F heat coefficients
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 39
January February March April May June July August September October November December
HEAT COEFFICIENTS
WA/ID Res 0.009844 0.008976 0.008870 0.008029 0.005690 0.003686 0.001174 0.000826 0.002388 0.006412 0.008695 0.009962
WA/ID Corn 0.049978 0.045349 0.043363 0.037282 0.024076 0.016817 0.004930 0.007713 0.019781 0.036017 0.042431 0.050435
WA/ID nd 0,129009 0.115248 0.094806 0.084501 0.041487 0.055783 0.044625 0.132057 0.198661 0.283820 0,164946 0,170180
Rose Res 0.010208 0.010184 0.009517 0.008514 0.006722 0.005038 0.000615 0.000049 0.001527 0.004756 0.008477 0.010124
Rose Corn 0.041388 0.039173 0.037762 0.031763 0.022073 0.010826 0.003070 0.002933 0.020028 0.027221 0.036871 0.044178
Rose lid 0.560088 0.639565 0.609582 1.794676 0.050434 0.307867 3.765089 4.759543 4.064708 1.476627 1.166407 0.839549
Medlord Res 0.0103873 0.0100818 0.0100326 0.0089329 0.0066631 0.0046337 0.0021118 00009412 0.0029039 0.0064739 0.0090313 0.0105071
Medford Corn 0,0404618 0.0406224 0.0364242 0.0292521 0.0221656 0.0144695 0.0106799 0.0095883 0.0213454 0.0383247 0.0390795 0.0420363
Medford nd 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
LaGrande Res 0.0087736 0.0081353 0.0080601 0.0074661 0.0054241 0.0033964 0.0004897 0.0105253 0.0007420 0.0030466 0.0077767 0.0089209
LaGrande Corn 0.0424449 0.0405465 0.0370305 0.0313249 0.0210792 0.0124668 0.0094054 0.0766325 0.0081499 0.0183217 0.0346280 0.0402809
LaGrande lid 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0,0000000
Klarrath Ras 0.008035 0.007601 0.007340 0.006312 0,004454 0.002573 0.000170 0,000560 0.001306 0.004338 0.006839 0.007861
KIanth Corn 0.031883 0.030028 0.027044 0.021792 0.013740 0.004544 0.000226 0.006202 0.008292 0.023551 0028058 0.031165
Klarrath lid 0,0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0,0000000 0.0000000 0,0000000 0,0000000 0.0000000
BASE COEFFICIENTS
WA/ID Ros 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491 0.055491
WA/ID Corn 0,346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0.346420 0346420 0.346420 0.346420 0,346420 0,346420
WA/ID Ind 3,651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3.651386 3,651386 3,651386
Rose Res 0,045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0,045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476 0.045476
Rose Corn 0,327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0,327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449 0.327449
Rose lid 19,923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195 19.923195
Medlord Res 0.047121 0.047121 0.047121 0.047121 0.047121 0.047121 0.047121 0,047121 0.047121 0.047121 0,047121 0.047121
Medford Corn 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0.333897 0,333897 0.333897
Fvlidford nd 3,762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345 3.762345
LaGrande Res 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749 0.053749
LaGrande Corn 0,252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0.252881 0,252881
LaGrande lid 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8,968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8.968306 8,968306 8.968306
Klarreth Res 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313 0.041313
KianEth Corn 0,319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781 0,319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781 0.319781
KIarrall,lid 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2.131761 2,131761
SUPER PEAK 1!
WA/ID Res 0.009594 0.009594 0.009594
WA/ID Corn 0 048587 0 048587 0.048587
WA/ID lid 0138145 0.138145 0138145
Rose Ras 0010172 0.010172 0.010172
Rose Corn 0 041580 0.041580 0.041580
Rose lid 0 679734 0 679734 0 679734
MedfordRes 0010325 0010325 0010325
Medford Corn 0041040 0.041040 0.041040
Medford lid .--
LaGrande Res 0.008610 0.008610 0.008610
LaGrande Corn 0.041091 0.041091 0041091
LaGrande lid .-
Klarrrnlh Res 0,007832 0 007632 0 007832
KlarrathCorn 0031025 0031025 0031025
Klarreth Ind .-
1/Average of DEC JAN F heat coefficients
40 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.3 II WA/ID BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION
Average Actual Demand by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 A.erage of Res Demand 11,098 10,607 10,852
A.erage of Cam Demand 7,729 8,406 8,067
Arage of Ind Demand 991 1,001 996
2006 Aerage of Res Demand 9,988 10,513 10,250
Average of Corn Demand 6,956 8,331 7,643
Arage of Ind Demand 892 992 942
2007 Aerage of Res Demand 10,032 10,433 10,232
Arage of Corn Demand 6,987 8,267 7,627
Average of md Demand 896 984 940
2008 Aerage of Res Demand 10,684 10,495 10,590
Average of Corn Demand 7,441 8,317 7,879
Aerage of md Demand 954 990 972
2009 Average of Res Demand 10,346 10,516 10,431
Average of Cam Demand 7,466 7,810 7,638
Arage of Ind Demand 756 797 777
2010 Arage of Res Demand 11,208 10,733 10,971
Average of Cam Demand 8,030 8,435 8,232
A.erageof md Demand 814 1,174 994
Total Arage of Res Demand 10,559 10,549 10,554
Total Average of Corn Demand 7,435 8,261 7,848
Total Arage of md Demand 884 990 937
Average Actual Customer Count by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Aerage of Res Cust 179,140 179,447 179,294
Arage of Corn Cust 20,450 20,427 20,439
Arage of Ind Cust 263 260 262
2006 Aerage of Res Cust 185,182 185,455 185,319
Arage of Corn Cust 20,748 20,856 20,802
Average of Ind Cust 246 242 244
2007 Aerage of Res Cust 189,577 190,087 189,832
A’erageofComCust 21,291 21,336 21,314
Arage of md Cust 244 241 243
2008 Aerage of Res Cust 193,667 193,643 193,655
Arage of Corn Cust 21,847 21,815 21,831
Average of md Cust 239 240 240
2009 Average of Res Cust 196,121 196,276 196,199
Aerage of Corn Cust 22,087 21,928 22,008
Arage of Ind Cust 233 234 234
2010 A’.erage of Res Cust 198,059 198,572 198,316
Aerage of Corn Cust 22,344 22,320 22,332
Arage of Ind Cust 227 229 228
Total Average of Res Cust 190,291 190,580 190,436
Total Arage of Corn Cust 21,461 21,447 21,454
Total Aerage of Ind Cust 242 241 242
Base Coefficients
(Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
0.055491 Res Base Usage
0.346420 Corn Base Usage
3.651386 nd Base Usage
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42 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.3 II MEDFORD BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION
Average Actual Demand by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Aerage of Res Demand 2,420 2,389 2,404
Arage of Com Demand 2,146 2,205 2,176
Sum of md Demand ---
2006 Aerage of Res Demand 2,243 2,328 2,285
Arage of Com Demand 1989 2,148 2,069
Sum of md Demand ---
2007 Aerage of Res Demand 2,319 2,285 2,302
Arage of Com Demand 2,044 2,142 2,093
Sum of Ind Demand 251 212 463
2008 Average of Res Demand 2,300 2,688 2,494
Arage of Com Demand 2,027 2,520 2,274
Sum of md Demand 249 249 498
2009 Arage of Res Demand 2,303 2,230 2,266
Average of Corn Demand 2,011 2,045 2,028
Sum of md Demand 953 1,093 2,046
2010 Average of Res Demand 2,276 2,103 2,190
Average of Corn Demand 1,979 2,003 1,991
Sum of Ind Demand 2,924 4,449 7,373
Total Aerage of Res Demand 2,310 2,337 2,324
Total Arage of Com Demand 2,033 2,177 2,105
Total Sum of Ind Demand 4,377 6,003 10,380
Average Actual Customer Count by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Aerage of Res Customer 47,286 47,191 47,239
Arage of Corn Customer 6,085 6,094 6,090
Aerage of Ind Customer ---
2006 Aerage of Res Customer 48,666 48,531 48,599
Average of Corn Customer 6,225 6,229 6,227
Arage of nd Customer ---
2007 Average of Res Customer 49,448 49,391 49,420
Average of Com Customer 6,356 6,352 6,354
A.erage of Ind Customer 9 9 9
2008 Arage of Res Customer 49,930 49,734 49,832
Aerage of Corn Customer 6395 6,391 6,393
Arage of Ind Customer 10 10 10
2009 Aerage of Res Customer 50,019 49,868 49,944
Aerage of Corn Customer 6,327 6,301 6,314
Aerage of Ind Customer 12 13 13
2010 Aerage of Res Customer 50,824 50,824 50,824
Arage of Corn Customer 6,449 6,449 6,449
Average of Ind Customer 13 13 13
Total A.erage of Res Customer 49,362 49,257 49,309
Total Average of Corn Customer 6,306 6,303 6,304
Total Arage of Ind Customer 7 8 7
Base Coefficients
(Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
0.047121 Res Base Usage
0.333897 Corn Base Usage
3.762345 nd Base Usage
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44 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.3 II ROSEBURG BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION
Average Actual Demand by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Aerage of Res Demand 859 849 854
Aerage of Corn Demand 910 1,040 975
Aerage of md Demand 32 46 39
2006 Aerage of Res Demand 702 611 657
Aerage of Corn Demand 744 748 746
Aerage of md Demand 26 33 29
2007 Average of Res Demand 634 619 627
Aerage of Corn Demand 672 757 715
Aerage of md Demand 24 33 28
2008 Average of Res Demand 632 585 609
Aerage of Corn Demand 670 716 693
Average of md Demand 23 31 27
2009 Aerage of Res Demand 568 519 543
Average of Com Demand 659 658 659
Aerage of md Demand 21 31 26
2010 Average of Res Demand 497 488 492
Aerage of Corn Demand 631 688 659
Aerageof md Demand 119 116 118
Total Aerage of Res Demand 649 612 630
Total Aerage of Corn Demand 714 768 741
Total Aerage of lnd Demand 41 48 45
Average Actual Customer Count by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Arage of Res Customer 12,311 12,257 12,284
Aerage of Corn Customer 2,093 2,093 2,093
A.erage of Ind Customer 2 2 2
2006 Aerage of Res Customer 12,570 12,511 12,541
Average of Corn Customer 2,128 2,112 2,120
Average of lnd Customer 3 4 4
2007 Average of Res Customer 12,900 12,777 12,839
Arage of Corn Customer 2,126 2,105 2,116
Average of Ind Customer 2 1 2
2008 Aerage of Res Customer 12,942 12,885 12,914
Aerage of Corn Customer 2,116 2,106 2111
Average of Ind Customer 2 2 2
2009 Aerage of Res Customer 12,920 12,874 12897
Aerage of Corn Customer 2,123 2,120 2,122
Aerage of Ind Customer 2 1 2
2010 Average of Res Customer 13,183 13,183 13,183
A.erage of Corn Customer 2,132 2,132 2,132
Average of lnd Customer 3 3 3
Total Aerage of Res Customer 12,804 12,748 12,776
Total Aerage of Corn Customer 2,120 2,111 2116
Total Average of Ind Customer 2 2 2
Base Coefficients
(Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
0.045476 Res Base Usage
0.327449 Corn Base Usage
19.92319 lnd Base Usage
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(I
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46 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.3 II KLAMATH FALLS BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION
Average Actual Demand by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Average of Res Demand 752 684 718
Aerage of Corn Demand 641 684 662
Aerage of md Demand ---
2006 Average of Res Demand 552 541 546
Aerage of Corn Demand 451 541 496
Aerage of md Demand ---
2007 Average of Res Demand 576 540 558
Arage of Corn Demand 484 547 515
Aerage of md Demand 7 10 8
2008 Arage of Res Demand 494 508 501
Aerage of Corn Demand 416 514 465
Aerage of md Demand 6 9 8
2009 A.erage of Res Demand 459 499 479
Aerage of Corn Demand 428 464 446
Average of md Demand 12 16 14
2010 Aerage of Res Demand 547 521 534
Average of Corn Demand 437 521 479
Average of md Demand 16 22 19
Total A.erage of Res Demand 563 549 556
Total Arage of Corn Demand 476 545 511
Total Aerage of Ind Demand 7 10 8
Average Actual Customer Count by Class
Month
Year Data 7 8 Grand Total
2005 Aerage of Res Customer 12,977 12,855 12,916
Average of Corn Customer 1576 1,566 1,571
Average of Ind Customer ---
2006 Average of Res Customer 13,240 13,135 13,188
Aerage of Corn Customer 1,582 1,576 1,579
Arage of Ind Customer ---
2007 Average of Res Customer 13675 13,610 13,643
Average of Corn Customer 1,605 1,598 1,602
Average of Ind Custorner 5 5 5
2008 Average of Res Customer 13,703 13,576 13,640
A.erage of Corn Customer 1,603 1,590 1,597
Average of Ind Customer 5 5 5
2009 Arage of Res Customer 13,683 13,604 13,644
Aerage of Corn Custorner 1,624 1,615 1,620
Average of lnd Customer 6 6 6
2010 Average of Res Customer 13,783 13,679 13,731
Aerage of Corn Customer 1,620 1,610 1,615
Arage of Ind Customer 7 7 7
Total Arage of Res Custorner 13,510 13,410 13,460
Total Aerage of Corn Customer 1,602 1,593 1,597
Total Arage of nd Customer 4 4 4
Base Coefficients
(Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
0.041313 Res Base Usage
0.319781 Corn Base Usage
2.131761 nd Base Usage
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48 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.3 II LA GRANDE BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION
Average Actual Demand by Class
Month
Year Data 7 Grand Total
2005 Aerage of Res Demand 368 368
Aerage of Corn Demand 224 224
Aerage of Ind Demand 17 17
2006 Aerage of Res Demand 360 360
Arage of Corn Demand 219 219
Arage of md Demand 17 17
2007 Aerage of Res Demand 360 360
Aerage of Corn Demand 219 219
Aerageoflnd Demand 17 17
2008 Aerage of Res Demand 365 365
Aerage of Corn Demand 222 222
Aerage of Ind Demand 17 17
2009 Average of Res Demand 292 292
Average of Corn Demand 235 235
Aerage of Ind Demand 3 3
2010 Aerage of Res Demand 300 300
Aerage of Corn Demand 235 235
A’erage of Ind Demand 11 11
Total Aerage of Res Demand 341 341
Total Aerage of Corn Demand 226 226
Total Aerage of lnd Demand 13 13
Average Actual Customer Count by Class
Month
Year Data 7 Grand Total
2005 Average of Res Customers 6,475 6,475
Average of Corn Customers 949 949
Average of Ind Customers 3 3
2006 Average of Res Customers 6,163 6,163
Average of Com Customers 873 873
Average of Ind Customers 2 2
2007 Arage of Res Customers 6,259 6,259
Aerage of Corn Customers 868 868
Aerage of Ind Customers 1 1
2008 Average of Res Customers 6,351 6,351
Aerage of Corn Customers 880 880
Aerage of Ind Customers 1 1
2009 Average of Res Customers 6,386 6,386
Aerage of Corn Customers 891 891
Aerage of md Customers 1 1
2010 Aerage of Res Customers 6,418 6,418
A’.erage of Corn Customers 894 894 Base Coefficients
Aerage of Ind Customers 1 1 (ActualAverage Demand/Custo,ner Count)
Total Aerage of Res Customers 6,342 6,342 0.0537493 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Corn Customers 893 893 0.252881 Corn Base Usage
Total Aerage of Ind Customers 2 2 8.9683057 lnd Base Usage
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50 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.4 II HEATING DEGREE DAY DATA MONTHLY TABLES
Temp Annual
Pattern Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
KIam Falls 2012 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Klam Fells 2013 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2014 1032 847 780 595 391 151 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2015 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam FaIls 2016 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2017 1032 847 781)595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2018 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2019 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 164 505 836 1055 6499
Klam Falls 2020 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2021 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2022 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2023 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2024 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2025 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2026 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2027 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2028 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Kiam Falls 2029 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2030 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
KIam Falls 2031 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Klam Falls 2032 1032 847 780 595 391 181 38 55 184 505 836 1055 6499
Temp Annual
Pattern Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
LaGrande 2012 1023 832 717 521 339 148 29 36 187 493 777 1024 6126
LaGrande 2013 1016 826 713 520 337 147 27 35 187 491 771 1021 6091
LaGrande 2014 1011 824 710 519 337 146 27 35 184 488 769 1020 6070
LaGrande 2015 1008 823 709 517 335 145 27 35 184 487 765 1016 6051
LaGrande 2016 1001 822 706 516 333 145 27 35 184 483 761 1015 6028
LaGrande 2017 1001 821 703 513 332 142 27 35 184 480 761 1008 6007
LaGrande 2018 997 817 700 512 332 142 27 35 183 477 757 1005 5984
LaGrande 2019 993 813 699 511 332 142 27 35 181 477 753 1002 5965
LaGrande 2020 993 812 698 509 331 142 26 35 181 476 753 996 5952
LaGrande 2021 991 806 694 505 331 140 26 35 180 475 751 993 5927
LaGrande 2022 989 804 694 5(15 330 140 26 35 180 474 750 992 5919
LaGrande 2023 987 802 693 503 330 140 26 35 18(1 473 749 991 5909
LaGrande 2024 983 801 693 502 329 140 26 35 180 473 749 989 5900
LaGrande 2025 982 801 693 502 329 139 26 35 180 472 747 989 5895
LaGrande 2026 981 801 691 501 329 139 26 35 180 472 746 989 5890
LaGrande 2027 980 800 691 501 329 139 26 35 180 471 746 989 P 5887
LaGrande 2028 979 800 689 499 328 139 26 35 180 471 745 989 ‘5880
LaGrande 2029 979 798 689 498 328 138 26 35 180 471 745 987 •5874
LaGrande 2030 975 797 687 498 327 137 26 35 179 471 744 984 ‘5860
LaGrande 2031 972 797 687 498 326 137 26 35 179 470 744 984 5855
LaGrande 2032 971 796 686 497 325 137 26 35 178 470 743 984 ‘5848
Temp Annual
Pattern Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Medford 2012 788 613 539 377 207 62 3 2 64 309 613 825 4402
Medford 2013 788 613 539 377 207 62 3 2 64 309 613 825 ‘4402
Medrd 2014 785 610 535 371 205 59 2 2 62 309 611 821 4372
Medford 2015 781 607 533 370 205 59 2 2 62 308 607 816 r 4352
Medford 2016 777 603 530 367 202 59 2 2 62 306 605 814 ‘4329
Medford 2017 775 601 529 365 201 59 2 2 62 306 603 811 4316
Medtord 2018 768 597 527 364 201 59 2 2 62 305 600 806 •4293
Medford 2019 765 596 525 364 200 59 2 2 62 304 598 803 ‘4280
Medford 2020 761 595 523 364 198 59 2 2 61 301 589 799 ‘4254
Medlord 2021 759 590 520 362 198 59 2 2 61 300 588 796 •4237
Medfottl 2022 756 586 520 361 198 59 2 2 61 300 586 791 •4222
Medloid 2023 756 586 520 360 198 59 2 2 61 299 586 791 ‘4220
Medford 2024 755 585 520 358 198 59 2 2 61 297 585 788 ‘4210
Medfoid 2025 753 585 517 358 198 59 2 2 61 296 584 787 ‘4202
Medford 2026 752 584 513 358 198 59 2 2 61 296 583 786 ‘4194
Medd 2027 750 584 512 357 198 59 2 2 61 296 583 786 ‘4190
Medford 2028 748 582 510 357 198 59 2 2 61 295 582 784 4180
Medford 2029 748 582 510 356 198 59 2 2 61 295 581 784 4178
Medford 2030 746 582 510 355 197 59 2 2 61 295 580 783 4172
Medford 2031 746 580 508 355 197 59 2 2 61 295 580 779 4164
Medford 2032 745 578 508 354 196 58 2 2 61 295 580 779 4158
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 51
APPENDIX 3.4 II HEATING DEGREE DAY DATA MONTHLY TABLES
Temp
Pattern Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Annual
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TotalRoseburg2012677551495361219
Ioseburg 2013 677 551 495 361 219
Roseburg 2014 672 550 492 359 219
Roseburg 2015 666 5.47 491 358 217
Roseburg 2016 664 544 487 357 217
ROseburg 2017 657 544 486 356 216
Rosebwg 2018 655 544 485 355 216
Roseburg 2019 653 539 481 353 215
Roseburg 2020 652 539 480 351 214
Roseburg 2021 652 538 479 350 213
Roseburg 2022 651 533 477 349 212
Roseburg 2023 651 533 475 349 212
Roseburp 2024 650 533 475 349 212
Roseburg 2025 649 533 475 349 212
Roseburg 2026 648 532 475 347 211
Roaeburg 2027 648 531 475 347 211
Roseburg 2028 647 530 475 347 211
Roseburg 2029 646 528 474 346 210
Roseburg 2030 646 527 474 346 209
Roseburg 2031 646 527 474 346 209
Roseburq 2032 641 527 474 346 208
82 9 3 62 274 497 692 3922
82 9 3 62 274 497 692 3922
81 9 3 61 272 495 692 3905
81 9 3 61 271 492 688 3884
81 9 3 61 270 490 685 -3868
80 9 3 61 270 488 683 ‘3853
79 9 3 60 269 488 681 3844
78 9 3 59 269 486 678 3823
78 9 3 59 268 483 675 3811
78 9 3 59 268 482 674 3805
78 9 3 59 267 477 669 ‘3784
78 9 3 59 267 476 667 3779
78 9 3 59 267 475 666 -3776
78 9 3 59 267 475 666 r
78 9 3 59 267 474 664 3767
78 9 3 59 267 474 664 V
78 9 3 59 267 474 664 3764
78 9 3 59 267 472 663 3755
77 9 3 59 267 472 662 ‘3751
77 9 3 59 266 472 660 •3748
77 9 3 59 264 471 658 ‘3737
Temp AnnualPatternYearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotalWA/ID 2012 1102 931 774 545 325 138 35 35 185 544 887 1174 V 6675WA/ID 2013 1099 928 768 543 322 137 35 35 183 542 886 1168 V 6644WA/ID 2014 1092 924 767 541 320 135 35 35 182 540 884 1165 6620WA/ID 2015 1087 920 766 540 320 135 35 35 182 537 879 1163 •6599WA/ID 2016 1084 916 765 538 319 135 35 33 182 535 878 1159 •6579WA/ID 2017 1081 913 761 535 317 134 35 33 182 532 869 1153 •6545WA/ID 2018 1080 910 757 533 316 134 34 33 179 530 866 1148 ‘6520WA/ID 2019 1078 907 755 531 316 134 34 33 176 528 863 1142 ‘6497WA/ID 2020 1071 902 748 529 315 131 34 33 174 526 861 1138 ‘6462WA/ID 2021 1066 901 746 526 314 131 34 33 174 525 860 1134 •6444
WA/ID 2022 1064 900 745 524 313 131 34 30 173 525 858 1134 ‘6431WA/ID 2023 1060 896 743 523 313 131 34 30 173 524 858 1132 V 6417
WA/ID 2024 1057 894 743 522 313 131 34 30 171 524 855 1130 •6494
WA/ID 2025 1055 893 741 522 313 131 34 30 171 523 853 1129 ‘6395
WA/ID 2026 1054 890 740 521 313 131 34 30 171 522 853 1128 6387
WA/C)2027 1053 888 739 519 312 130 34 30 171 521 852 1124 •6373
WA/ID 2028 1052 887 737 519 311 129 34 30 171 519 850 1122 ‘6361
WA/ID 2029 1050 887 737 519 311 129 33 29 171 518 847 1120 •6351WA/ID 2030 1049 885 735 519 310 129 33 29 170 517 844 1117 ‘6337
WA/ID 2031 1048 884 735 518 310 129 33 29 169 517 842 1114 •6328WA/ID 2032 1048 883 735 518 310 129 33 29 169 515 841 1109 ‘6319
52 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.4 II HEATING DEGREE DAILY MONTH BY AREA
Temp
Pattern Day JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
WA/ID 1 39 36 29 22 15 7 3 1 3 12 24 35
WA/ID 2 39 35 29 22 14 7 3 1 3 12 25 35
WA/ID 3 39 35 29 21 14 7 2 0 3 12 25 36
WAIIO 4 39 35 28 21 14 7 2 1 3 13 26 36
WA/ID 5 39 35 28 21 14 7 2 1 4 13 26 36
WA/ID 6 39 35 28 21 13 6 2 1 4 14 27 36
WA/ID 7 39 34 28 21 13 6 2 1 4 14 27 36
WA/ID 8 39 34 27 20 13 6 2 1 4 15 27 37
WA/ID 9 38 34 27 20 12 6 2 1 5 15 28 37
WA/ID 10 38 34 27 20 12 6 2 1 5 15 28 37
WA/ID 11 38 34 27 20 12 6 2 1 5 16 28 37
WA/ID 12 38 33 26 19 12 5 1 1 5 16 29 37
WA/ID 13 38 62 26 19 11 5 1 1 6 17 29 38
WA/ID 14 38 72 26 19 11 5 1 1 6 17 30 38
WA/ID 15 38 82 26 19 11 5 1 1 6 17 30 38
WA/ID 16 38 67 25 19 11 5 1 1 6 18 30 38
WA/ID 17 38 57 25 18 11 5 1 1 7 18 31 38
WA/ID 18 38 32 25 18 10 5 1 1 7 19 31 51
WA/ID 19 38 32 25 18 10 4 1 1 7 19 31 56
WA/ID 20 37 32 24 18 10 4 1 1 8 20 32 61
WA/ID 21 37 31 24 17 10 4 1 1 8 20 32 58
WA/ID 22 37 31 24 17 9 4 1 2 8 20 32 53
WA/ID 23 37 31 24 17 9 4 1 2 9 21 33 39
WA/ID 24 37 31 24 17 9 4 1 2 9 21 33 39
WA/ID 25 37 30 23 16 9 4 1 2 9 22 33 39
WA/ID 26 37 30 23 16 9 3 1 2 10 22 33 39
WA/ID 27 36 30 23 16 8 3 1 2 10 22 34 39
WA/ID 28 36 29 23 15 8 3 1 2 10 23 34 39
WA/ID 29 36 23 15 8 3 1 2 11 23 34 39
WA/ID 30 36 22 15 8 3 1 3 11 24 35 39
WA/ID 31 36 22 8 1 3 24 39
Temp
Pattern Day JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Medford 1 27 24 20 16 11 4 1 0 1 5 16 25
Medfod 2 27 24 20 16 10 4 1 0 1 6 17 25
Medford 3 27 23 19 15 10 4 1 0 1 6 17 26
Medford 4 27 23 19 15 10 4 1 0 1 6 17 26
Medford 5 27 23 19 15 10 4 1 0 1 7 18 26
Me&ord 6 27 23 19 15 10 4 1 0 1 7 18 26
Meciford 7 27 23 19 15 9 3 1 0 1 7 18 26
Medford 8 27 23 19 15 9 3 1 0 1 7 19 26
Medford 9 27 23 19 15 9 3 1 0 1 8 19 27
Medford 10 27 22 19 14 9 3 1 0 1 8 20 27
Medford 11 27 22 18 14 8 3 0 0 1 8 20 27
Medford 12 27 22 18 14 8 3 0 0 1 9 20 27
Medford 13 26 32 18 14 8 2 0 0 2 9 21 27
Medford 14 26 36 18 14 8 2 0 0 2 9 21 27
Medford 15 26 38 18 14 8 2 0 0 2 10 21 27
Medford 16 26 32 18 13 7 2 0 0 2 10 21 27
Medford 17 26 28 18 13 7 2 0 0 2 10 22 27
Medford 18 26 21 17 13 7 2 0 0 2 11 22 50
Medford 19 26 21 17 13 7 2 0 0 3 11 22 59
Medford 20 26 21 17 13 7 2 0 0 3 11 23 61
Medford 21 25 21 17 12 6 2 0 0 3 12 23 56
Medford 22 25 21 17 12 6 1 0 0 3 12 23 55
MedIord 23 25 21 17 12 6 1 0 0 3 13 23 28
Medfcxri 24 25 20 17 12 6 1 0 0 4 13 24 28
Medford 25 25 20 17 12 6 1 0 1 4 13 24 28
Medlord 26 25 20 16 12 6 1 0 1 4 14 24 28
Medford 27 25 20 16 11 5 1 0 1 4 14 24 28
Medford 28 25 20 16 11 5 1 0 1 4 14 25 28
Meclford 29 24 16 11 5 1 0 1 5 15 25 28
Medford 30 24 16 11 5 1 0 1 5 15 25 27
Medford 31 24 16 5 0 1 16 27
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 53
APPENDIX 3.4 II HEATING DEGREE DAILY MONTH BY AREA
Temp
Pattern Day JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Roseburg 1 24 21 18
Roseburg 2 24 21 17
Roseburg 3 24 21 17
Roseburg 4 23 21 17
Roseburg 5 23 20 17
Roseburg 6 23 20 17
Roseburg 7 23 20 17
Roseburg 8 23 20 17
Roseburg 9 23 20 17
Roseburg 10 23 20 17
Roseburg 11 23 20 17
Roseburg 12 23 20 16
Roseburg 13 23 32 16
Roseburg 14 23 37 16
Roseburg 15 23 42 16
Roseburg 16 23 34 16
Roseburg 17 23 28 16
Roseburg 18 23 19 16
Roseburg 19 22 19 16
Roseburg 20 22 19 16
Roseburg 21 22 18 15
Roseburg 22 22 18 15
Roseburg 23 22 18 15
Roseburg 24 22 18 15
Roseburg 25 22 18 15
Roseburg 26 22 18 15
Roseburg 27 22 18 15
Roseburg 28 21 18 15
Roseburg 29 21 15
Roseburg 30 21 15
Roseburg 31 21 14
14 10
14 10
14 9
14 9
14 9
14 9
14 9
14 9
13 8
13 8
13 8
13 8
13 8
13 7
13 7
13 7
12 7
12 7
12 7
12 6
12 6
12 6
11 6
11 6
11 6
11 5
11 5
10 5
10 5
10 5
5
5 1 --0 1 5 13 21
4 1 0 1 5 14 21
4 1 0 1 5 14 21
4 1 0 1 6 14 22
4 1 0 1 6 14 22
4 1 0 1 6 15 22
4 1 0 1 6 15 22
4 1 0 1 7 15 22
3 1 0 1 7 16 22
3 1 0 2 7 16 23
3 1 0 2 7 16 23
3 1 0 2 7 17 23
3 1 0 2 8 17 23
3 1 0 2 8 17 23
3 1 0 2 8 17 23
3 1 0 2 9 18 23
3 1 0 2 9 18 23
2 1 0 3 9 18 40
2 1 0 3 9 18 53
2 0 0 3 10 19 55
2 0 1 3 10 19 46
2 0 1 3 10 19 48
2 0 1 3 10 19 24
2 0 1 4 11 20 24
2 0 1 4 11 20 24
2 0 1 4 11 20 24
2 0 1 4 12 20 24
2 0 1 4 12 20 24
2 0 1 4 12 21 24
1 0 1 5 13 21 24
0 1 13 24
Temp
Pattern Day JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Kiamath FaIls 1 35 32 27 22 16 8 3 1 3 10 22 32
Kiamath Falls 2 35 32 27 22 15 8 3 1 3 10 22 32
Klamath Falls 3 35 31 27 22 15 8 3 1 4 11 23 33
Klamath Falls 4 35 31 27 22 15 7 3 1 4 11 23 33
Klamath FaIls 5 35 31 26 21 15 7 2 1 4 11 24 33
Klamath Falls 6 35 31 26 21 14 7 2 1 4 12 24 33
Klamath FaIls 7 35 31 26 21 14 7 2 1 4 12 25 33
Klamath Falls 8 35 31 26 21 14 7 2 1 5 12 25 33
Klamath Falls 9 35 30 26 21 13 6 2 1 5 13 25 34
Klamath Falls 10 35 30 26 20 13 6 2 1 5 13 26 34
Klamath Fats 11 35 30 26 20 13 6 2 1 5 13 26 34
Klamath Falls 12 35 30 25 20 13 6 2 1 5 14 26 34
Klamath Falls 13 35 42 25 20 12 6 2 1 6 14 27 34
Klamath Falls 14 35 51 25 20 12 5 2 1 6 14 27 34
Klamath Falls 15 34 54 25 19 12 5 1 1 6 15 28 34
Klamath Falls 16 34 53 25 19 12 5 1 1 6 15 28 34
Klamath Falls 17 34 47 25 19 12 5 1 1 7 15 28 35
Klamath Falls 18 34 29 24 19 11 5 1 1 7 16 29 54
Kiamath Falls 19 34 29 24 19 11 5 1 1 7 16 29 66
Klamath Falls 20 34 28 24 18 11 4 1 1 7 17 29 72
Klamath Falls 21 34 28 24 18 11 4 1 2 7 17 30 68
Kiamath Falls 22 34 28 24 18 10 4 1 2 8 17 30 58
Klamath Falls 23 34 28 24 18 10 4 1 2 8 18 30 35
Klamath Falls 24 33 28 23 17 10 4 1 2 8 18 30 35
Klamath Falls 25 33 28 23 17 10 4 1 2 9 19 31 35
Klamath Falls 26 33 27 23 17 9 3 1 2 9 19 31 35
Klamath Falls 27 33 27 23 17 9 3 1 2 9 20 31 35
Klamath Falls 28 33 27 23 16 9 3 1 3 9 20 31 35
Klamath Falls 29 32 23 16 9 3 1 3 10 20 32 35
Kiamath Falls 30 32 22 16 8 3 1 3 10 21 32 35
Klamath Falls 31 32 22 8 1 3 21 35
54 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.4 II HEATING DEGREE DAILY MONTH BY AREA
Temp
Pattern Day JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
LaGrande 1 35 33 28 22 15 8 3 1 4 11 22 32
LaGrande 2 35 33 27 21 15 7 2 1 4 11 23 32
LaGrande 3 35 33 27 21 14 7 2 1 4 12 23 32
LaGrande 4 35 32 27 21 14 7 2 1 4 12 23 32
LaGrande 5 36 32 27 21 14 7 2 1 5 12 24 32
LaGrande 6 36 32 26 21 13 7 2 1 5 13 24 33
LaGrande 7 36 32 26 21 13 6 2 1 5 13 25 33
LaGrande 8 36 32 26 20 13 6 2 1 5 13 25 33
LaGrande 9 35 31 26 20 13 6 2 1 6 13 25 33
LaGrande 10 35 31 26 20 12 6 2 1 6 14 26 33
LaGrande 11 35 31 26 20 12 6 1 1 6 14 26 33
LaGrande 12 35 31 25 20 12 5 1 1 6 14 26 34
LaGrande 13 35 61 25 19 12 5 1 1 6 15 27 34
LaGrande 14 35 68 25 19 11 5 1 1 7 15 27 34
LaGrande 15 35 74 25 19 11 5 1 1 7 15 28 34
LaGrande 16 35 61 25 19 11 5 1 1 7 16 28 34
LaGrande 17 35 60 24 18 11 5 1 1 7 16 28 34
LaGrande 18 35 30 24 18 11 4 1 2 8 17 28 51
LaGrande 19 35 30 24 18 10 4 1 2 8 17 29 58
LaGrande 20 35 29 24 18 10 4 1 2 8 17 29 64
LaGrande 21 35 29 24 17 10 4 1 2 8 18 29 58
LaGrande 22 35 29 23 17 10 4 1 2 9 18 30 51
LaGrande 23 34 29 23 17 9 4 1 2 9 18 30 35
LaGrande 24 34 29 23 17 9 4 1 2 9 19 30 35
LaGrande 25 34 28 23 16 9 3 1 3 9 19 30 35
LaGrande 26 34 28 23 16 9 3 1 3 10 20 31 35
LaGrande 27 34 28 22 16 9 3 1 3 10 20 31 35
LaGrande 28 34 28 22 16 8 3 1 3 10 20 31 35
LaGrande 29 34 22 15 8 3 1 3 10 21 31 35
LaGrande 30 33 22 15 8 3 1 3 11 21 31 35
LaGrande 31 33 22 8 1 4 22 35
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 55
APPENDIX 3.5 II GLOBAL WARMING
ii Peak and trough weather appears more volatile
ii Reduce annual consumption over time
ii Decrease non peak HDDs over time to reflect warming trend
GLOBAL WARMING ADJUSTMENT
ii Heating degree day data is obtained from the National Weather Service (NWS).Avista uses
the most recent 30-year period,which goes from 1979-2008.For Oregon,Avista uses four
weather stations as the weather basis,corresponding to the areas within which natural gas
services are provided,all of which are official National Weather Service stations.Heating
degree day weather patterns between these areas are uncorrelated.
ii At the April 2009 Technical Advisory Committee meeting,Avista presented some data and
information regarding trends in heating degree days for its service area.Avista has adopted a
“Global Warming”baseline for forecasting which captures the modest warming trend (i.e.
gradually declining heating degree days)expected through the 20 year forecast period.
ii By 2030,as compared to the “official”NWS normal figures based on the 197 1-2000 period,
the number of annual heating degree days as a percentage of the official period are:
ii Spokane 93.9%
ii Medford 88.4%
ii Roseburg 86.8%
ii Klamath Falls 94.9%
ii La Grande 8 1.6%
Annual Heating Degree Days,Percent of Normal
Spokane,Washington
I 28.
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2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 57
APPENDIX 3.5 II GLOBAL WARMING
1976-2007 Cooling Degree Day Trends
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APPENDIX3.5 II GLOBAL WARMING
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 59
Roseburg HDD Trends
excluding Summer
5,000-----I
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60 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.5 II GLOBAL WARMING
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2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 63
64 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.6 II DEMAND SCENARIOS
PROPOSED SCENARIOS
Expected High Growth Low Growth Cold Day 20-yr Average
INPUT ASSUMPTIONS Case &Low Prices &High Prices Weather Std Case
Customer Growth Rate Reference Case 60%Increase in 40%Decrease in Reference Case Reference Case
Cud Growth Rates Cust Growth Rates Cust Growth Rates Cust Growth Rates Cust
Growth Rates
Use perCuatomer 3yrFlat+3yrFlat+3yrFlat+3yrFlat+3yrFlat+
Price Elast.Price Elast.t Price Elast.Price Elast.Price Elast.
CNG/NGV
Demand SIde Management Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Alternate Planning
Weather Planning Standard Coldest Day Coldest Day Coldest Day Standard Normal
Prices
Price cuRe Expected Low High Expected Expected
Elasticity Expected None Expected Expected Expected
Carbon Adder ($/Ton($14422 None $14-$22 $14422 $14-$22
RESULTS
First Gas Year Unserved
WA/ID 2030 2020 N/A N/A N/A
Medftrrd 2029 2020 N/A N/A N/A
Roseburg N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Klamath 2030 2019 N/A N/A N/A
La Grande N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SCENARIO SUMMARY
Most sggresske peak weather Aggressi¼e growth Stagnant growth E’eluates adopting an Case most repreaenlatie
planning case utilizing Aweage assumptions in order to assumptions in orderto attemate peak weather of our arerage (budget,
Case assumptions as a starting easluate when our easluate it a shortage standard.Helps pmade PGA,rate case,
point and layering in coldest eartiest resource does occur.Not likely some bounds around our procurement)planning
weather on record.The liklihood shortage could occur.to occur.senstirAty to weather.criteria.Most likely to
of occurrence is low.Not likely of occuring,occur.
RtSK ASSESSMENT
Higher or lower customer growth rates,which are heasily based on economic recovery.Higher or lower growth rates will lead to accelerated ordelayed
unserred demand.Looking at serious growth assumptions offthe Expected Case allows us to capture the risk in terms of the change in demand linked
to customer growth.
Higher or lower use per customer will also lead to accelerated or delayed unsersed demand.Use per customer can differ in many ways.Direct use per
customer inituencers,such as demand side management,NGV/CNG usage,and derisation of the use per customer starting point (i.e.one year,three
year,etc).Again,sarying these assumptions under our forecasting methodology allows us to quantify the change each assumption has to ourforecast.
Weather solatility and predictability are a key risk.As the most correlated direct demand intuencer,serying weather assumptions is key to
underetanding the weather related risks.
Indirect infuencere including elasticity and price are also important assumptions.The two go hand in hand,as price changes it will intuence how
much customers consume.If forecasted prices remain relstisely stable oser the plsening horizon our current elasticity assumption will not proside
much decreased usage.Howeser,price adders or an oserati steepening of the price curse witl tirgger a greater decline in usage due to the price elastic
response.The maginitude of the elasticity adjustment is also important.We are using a long run elasticity factor as calcuated by the AGA.We
continue to esaluate this assumption and are locking to update the study as part of our Action Plan.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 65
APPENDIX 3.7 II DEMAND FORECAST SENSITIVITIES AND SCENARIOS
DESCRIPTIONS
DEFINITIONS
DYNAMIC DEMAND METHODOLOGY —Avista’s demand forecasting approach wherein we 1)identify key
demand drivers behind natural gas consumption,2)perform sensitivity analysis on each demand driver,
and 3)combine demand drivers under various scenarios to develop alternative potential outcomes for
forecasted demand.
DEMAND INFLUENCING FACTORS —Factors that directly influence the volume of natural gas consumed by our
core customers.
PRICE INFLUENCING FACTORS —Factors that,through price elasticity response,indirectly influence the volume
of natural gas consumed by our core customers.
REFERENCE CASE —A baseline point of reference that captures the basic inputs for determining a demand
forecast in SENDOUT®which includes number of customers,use per customer,average daily weather
temperatures (including an adjustment for global warming)and expected natural gas prices.
SENSITIVITIES —Focused analysis of a specific natural gas demand driver and its impact on forecasted
demand relative to the Reference Case when underlying input assumptions are modified.
SCENARIOS —Combination of natural gas demand drivers that make up a demand forecast.
Avista evaluates each sensitivities impact.
SENSITIVITIES
The following Sensitivities were performed on identified demand drivers against the reference case for
consideration in Scenario development.Note that Sensitivity assumptions reflect incremental adjustments
we estimate are not captured in the underlying reference case forecast.
Following are the Demand Influencing (Direct)Sensitivities we evaluated:
REFERENCE CASE PLUS PEAK —Same assumptions as in the Reference Case with and adjustment made to
normal weather to incorporate peak weather conditions.The peak weather data being the coldest day on
record for each weather area.
Low &HIGH CUSTOMER GROWTH —In our low customer growth Sensitivity,annual customer growth rates
under perform the reference rate of growth by 40%over our 20 year planning horizon while annual
customer growth rates exceed the reference rate by 60%in our high growth Sensitivity.
NATURAL GAS VEHICLES (NGV)AND/OR COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS (CNG)VEHICLES —NGV/CNG vehicles
assumed to produce a 15%cumulative incremental demand over our 20 year planning horizon.Our
assumption utilized market consumption estimates from an independent analysis on NGV/CNG vehicle
viability.The analysis indicates significant challenges exist to widespread adoption but did provide a
scenario for significant market penetration (10%in 10 years).
66 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
ALTERNATE WEATHER STANDARD (COLDEST DAY 20 YRS)—Peak Day weather temperature reduced to coldest
average daily temperature (HDDs)experienced in the most recent 20 years in each region.
DSM —Reference case assumptions including the potential DSM identified by the Conservation Potential
Assessment provided by Global Energy Partners.See Appendix 4.1 for full assessment report.
PEAK PLUS DSM —Reference plus peak weather assumptions including the potential DSM identified by the
Conservation Potential Assessment provided by Global Energy Partners.See Appendix 4.1 for the full
assessment report.
ALTERNATE USE PER CUSTOMER —Reference case use per customer was based upon 3 years of actual use per
customer per heating degree day data.This sensitivity used five years ofhistorical use per customer per
heating degree day data.
Following are the Price Influencing (Indirect)Sensitivities we evaluated:
EXPECTED ELAsTIcrn’—For our expected elasticity Sensitivity,we incorporate reduced consumption in
response to higher natural gas prices utilizing a price elasticity study prepared by the American Gas
Association.
Low &HIGH PRICES —To capture a wide band of alternative prices forecasts,we use the Northwest Power
and Conservation Council’s “very low”and “very high”natural gas price forecast scenarios with first five
years modified to include blend of recent market prices (Nymex forward prices)consistent with our
Expected price forecast.
CARBON LEGISLATION—Utilizes carbon cost adders quantified by independent analysis from Consultant #1.
They identify both an adder reflecting carbon allowances as well as an adder to capture the effect of
increased natural gas demand as more gas turbines come online to replace coal plants and back up wind
generation.The allowance adder escalates from $14/ton in 2022 to S22/ton by 2032.
EXPORTED LNG —Beginning in 2017,we apply an estimate of $.50/mmbtu incremental adder each year to
regional natural gas prices to capture upward price pressure because of exports of LNG to Asian and
European counties.There is much uncertainty about the region price impact LNG will have.It is highly
dependent on many things including which export facilities get built and the pipeline infrastructure used
to serve them.There are several analyses that have been conducted where the price impact can be
minimal to $1 .00/mmbtu.
SCENARIOS
After identifying the above demand drivers and analyzing the various Sensitivities,we have developed
the following demand forecast Scenarios:
AVERAGE CASE —This Scenario we believe represents the most likely average demand forecast modeled.
We assume service territory customer growth rates consistent with the reference case,rolling 30 year
normal weather in each service territory,our expected natural gas price forecast (Consultant #1),expected
price elasticity,and the C02 cost adders from our Carbon Legislation Sensitivity,and DSM.The
Scenario does not include incremental cost adders for declining Canadian imports or drilling restrictions
beyond what is incorporated in the selected price forecast.
ZO12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 67
EXPECTED CASE —This Scenario represents the peak demand forecast.We assume service territory customer
growth rates consistent with the reference case,a weather standard of coldest day on record in each
service territory,our middle range natural gas price forecast (Consultant #1),expected price elasticity,
and the C02 cost adders from our Carbon Legislation Sensitivity,and DSM.
HIGH GROWTH,Low PRICE —This Scenario models a rapid return to robust growth in part spurred on by low
energy prices.We assume customer growth rates 60%higher than the reference case,coldest day on
record weather standard,incremental demand from NGV/CNG,our low natural gas price forecast,no
price elasticity,DSM,and no C02 adders.
Low GRowTH,HIGH PRICE —This Scenario models an extended period of slow economic growth in part
resulting from high energy prices.We assume customer growth rates 40%lower than the reference case,
coldest day on record weather standard,our high natural gas price forecast,expected price elasticity,and
C02 adders from our Carbon Legislation Sensitivity.
ALTERNATE WEATHER STANDARD —This Scenario models all the same assumptions as the Expected Case
Scenario except for the change in the weather planning standard from coldest day on record to coldest day
in 20 years for each service territory.As noted in the Sensitivity analysis,this change does not affect the
Klamath Falls and La Grande service territories which have each experienced their coldest day on record
within the last 20 years.
A case incorporating Exported LNG was not included in this IRP’s scenario analysis.There is much
uncertainty about the location and timing of exported LNG and its potential price impacts.The
forecasters we subscribe to have incorporated some level of export LNG into their price forecasts and
therefore our expected price curve does include an export LNG assumption.At this time the effects of
LNG are minimal given the robust North American supply picture.Avista will closely monitor
developments with export LNG for the potential price and infrastructure impacts.
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72 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.9 II PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
WA/ID
Annual Demand Before and After DSM
WA/ID
35,000 -
32,500 -
___________
4-
__________________________
•30,000
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Peak Day Demand Before and After DSM
WA/ID
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Wa/ID:Daily Calculated Demand Wa/Id:Daily Calculated Demand After DSM
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 73
APPENDIX 3.9 II PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
MEDFORD
Annual Demand Before and After DSM
Medford
7,000
6,500 --—-----———-----——-—---—--___________
______
1
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____________________
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______________________
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Peak Day Demand Before and After DSM
Medford
75
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-----
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____
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Medford:Daily Calculated Demand Medford:Daily Calculated Demand After DSM
74 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.9 II PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
ROSEBURG
Annual Demand Before and After DSM
Roseburg
1,700
1,600 -
____
——--—-—--—-—-
1,500 -—--——____—-—-—
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Peak Day Demand Before and After DSM
Roseburg
18 -
017
16
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Roseburg:Daily Calculated Demand Roseburg:Daily Calculated Demand After DSM
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 75
APPENDIX 3.9 II PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
KLAMATH FALLS
Annual Demand Before and After DSM
Kiamath Falls
1,650
1,600 ------------------------.---------...-.—.--—_-----..--.-.-.-
1,550----------—--.-
___
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1,450 .
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KIam Falls:Annual Calculated Demand KIam Falls:Annual Calculated Demand After DSM
Peak Day Demand Before and After DSM
Klamath Falls
--__-——
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14
13
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KIam Falls:Annual Calculated Demand Klam Falls:Annual Calculated Demand After DSM
76 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.9 II PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
l.A GRANDE
Annual Demand Before and After DSM
LaGrande
900
850 -
_____________
-o —
800 -—
750 -----
700 -——-—,—
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La Grande:Daily Calculated Demand After DSM by Area/Class
Peak Day Demand Before and After DSM
LaGrande
9
8-----——---------—--——
-o ——
————7 --
6 ——
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La Grande:Daily Calculated Demand by Area/Class
La Grande:Daily Calculated Demand After DSM by Area/Class
2O12AvI5TANA’ruRALGAsIRP II 77
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
EXPECTED MIX
2012:2012:20Th 2013:2013:2013:2014:2014:2014:
Area Residential Commercial md FlrmSale 2012 Total Residential Commercial md FlnnSaIe 2OI3Total Residential Commercial md Firmtale 2014 Total
KIam Falls 832.29 479.61 5.02 1,316.92 838.10 484.58 5.01 1,327.69 825.31 480.20 5.01 1,310.52
LaGrande 436.90 280.81 28.15 745.86 438.49 283.86 28,15 750.50 428.75 280.50 28.15 736.89
Medford GTN 2,122.77 1,319.53 27.83 3,470.13 2,144.95 1,323.48 28.25 3,496.68 2,127.21 1,305.07 28.25 3,460.54
Medford NWP 953.71 592.83 12.50 1,559.04 963.67 594.61 12.69 1,570.97 955.71 586.34 12.69 1,554.74
Rosehurg 711.03 582.36 49.52 1,342.92 717.40 586.53 49.38 1.353 30 712.04 580.41 48.91 1.341,36
OR Sub-Total 5,056.71 3,258.14 123.02 8,434.86 5,102.61 3,273.05 123.48 8,499.19 8,049.01 3,252.02 123.01 8,404.04
WA/ID Both 9,207.42 5,521.06 306.24 15,034.72 9,342.29 5,576.39 306.80 1.5,225.48 9,230.37 5,518.49 304.41 15,053.27
WA/IDGTN 1,269.99 761.53 42.24 2,073.75 1,268,59 769.16 42,32 2,150.07 1,273.1.5 761.17 4199 2,076.32
WA/IDNWP 5,397.45 3,236.49 17952 8,813.46 5,476.52 3.268 93 179.85 8.925 29 5.410,91 3,234 99 17845 8,824.35
WA/lDSub’Tutal 15,874.86 9,518.08 028.50 25,921.94 16,107.40 9,614.48 92896 26,230.84 15,914.43 9,514.66 924.65 23,953.94
Case Total 20,931.57 12,774.21 651.02 34,356.80 21,210.01 12,887.54 652.44 34,748.99 20,963.44 12,746.67 647.86 34,357.98
2015:2011:2015:2016:2816:2016:2017:2017:2017:
Area Residential Commercial Ind Firrnsale 2015 Total Residential Commercial Ind FirmSale 2016 Total Residential Commercial ledFirmSale 2017 Total
KIam Falls 834.34 485.71 5.01 1,325.06 849.85 493.43 5.02 1,348.30 857.10 496.48 5.01 1,358.59
LaGi-ande 429.01 283.67 28.15 740.83 432.86 288.38 28.15 749,39 432.86 269.61 26,15 750.61
Medford 0114 2,164.16 1,318.96 29,61 3,512.74 2,216.60 1,344.06 30.22 3,590.88 2,249.64 1,356.28 31.49 3,639.41
Medtord NWP 972.31 592.58 13.30 1,578.19 995.86 603.85 13.58 1,613.29 1,010,71 610.24 14.15 1,635.10
Rosehurg 723.71 585.17 48.81 1,357.69 741.47 592.76 48.90 1,383.13 751.56 594.69 48.69 1,394.94
OR Sub-Total 0,123.54 3,266.09 124.88 8,514.10 9,236.65 3,322.48 125.87 8,684.99 5,300.87 3,349.31 127.48 8,778.65
WA/IDBoth 9,342.69 9,589.65 307.19 15,239.53 9,523.97 5,701.77 310.81 15,536.55 9,617.59 5,762.39 311.72 15,691.70
WA/IDGTN 1,288.65 770.99 42.37 2,102.01 1,313.65 781.45 42.87 2,142.93 1,326,57 794.82 43.00 2,164.38
WA/IDNWP 5,476.76 3,276.71 180.58 8,933.55 5,58303 3,342.44 182.20 9,107.68 5,637.92 3,377.98 162.73 9,15863
WA/ID Sub-Total 16,108.10 9,637.35 629.64 26,278.09 16,420.66 9,930.67 635.88 26,797.21 16,582.07 9,935.19 637.45 27,094.71
CaseTotal 21,231.64 12,903.44 654.52 34,789.59 21,657.31 13,153.14 661.70 35,47220 21,883.94 13,284.50 664.32 35,933.30
2018:2018:2018:2019:2019:2019:2021.2020:2020:
Area Residential Commercial led FirniSale 2818Total Residential Commercial led FinnSale 2019 Total Residential Commercial led FlrreSale 2020Total
KIam Falls 867.06 501.15 5.01 1,373.21 876.37 505.47 5.01 1,386.85 890.47 512.33 5.02 1,407.82
Laorande 434.39 291.76 28.15 754.30 435.63 293.70 28.15 757.48 439.20 297.30 28.15 764.64
Medford GTN 2,291.24 1,377.44 32.00 3,750.68 2,330.95 1,395.74 32,00 3,758.69 2,382.58 1,420.77 32.15 3,835.50
Mndford NWP 1,029.40 616.85 14.30 1,662.63 1,047,24 627.07 14.38 1,688.69 1,070,43 638.32 14.44 1,723.19
Rosnhurg 763.60 598.42 48.63 1,410.72 775.15 601.91 48.56 1,425.61 791.06 60846 48.66 1,448.18
OR Sub-Total 5,385.77 3,387.61 1.28.36 8,901.55 5,465.34 3,423.99 128.10 9,017.33 5,573.75 3,477.17 126.42 9,179.34
WA/ID Both 9,746.28 5,842,98 313.60 15,902,77 9,868.09 5,919.40 315.42 16,102.86 10,043.33 6,026.84 317,48 16,387.69
WA/IDGTN 1,344.32 805.92 43.26 2,193.49 1,361.11 816.47 43.51 2,221.09 1,305,29 831.29 43.79 2,260.37
WA/ID NWP 5,713.37 3,425 17 103.64 9,322.37 5,784.75 3,470.03 184.90 9.439 69 5,887.51 3.533,02 106.11 9,00664
WA/ID sub-Total 16,608.97 10,073.97 540,b9 27,418.63 17,013.92 10,2015.90 543.82 27,763.64 17,316.1.2 10,391.16 547.38 28,254.66
Case Total 22,189.74 13,461.59 669:95 36,321.18 22,479.26 13,629.79 67192 36,790.97 22,889.87 13,869:33 675.79 37,434.511
2021:2021:2021:2022:2022:2022:2023:2023:2023:
Area Residential Commercial led Firinlale 2O2lTutal Residential Commercial led FlrmSale 2022 Total Residential Commercial led FirmSale 2O23Total
11am Falls 950.18 516.56 5,01 1,421.75 912.06 522.08 5.01 1,439.15 925.10 528.13 5.01 1,45824
La Grands 440.51 299.20 28.15 767.86 442.98 301.96 28.15 773.08 445.94 304,94 20.15 779.03
Medfard GTN 2,421.76 1,438.08 33.36 3,893.20 2,466.09 1,459.16 33.88 3,959.92 2,515.90 1,482.06 33.92 4,031.89
Mndford NWP 1,088.04 646.09 14.99 1,749.12 1,108.31 655.56 15.22 1,779.10 1,130.33 665.85 15.24 1,811,43
Rosehorg 802 36 611.66 59.87 1,473.89 815.95 616.61 64.67 1,497.23 830.54 622,08 64.67 1,517.29
OR Sub-Total 5,692.84 3,511.60 14137 9,305.91 5,746.19 3,555.36 146.92 9,448.47 5,847.83 3,603.06 046.98 9,597.97
WA/ID Both 10,168.21 6,102,41 319.77 16,590.39 10,319.06 6,193.88 321.49 16,834.43 10,405.41 6,293.44 323.76 17,102.61
WA/ID GTN 1,402.52 841.72 44.11 2,288.34 1,423.32 854.33 44.34 2,322.00 1,446.27 860.07 44,66 2,358.99
WA/ID NWP 5,9511.72 3,577 33 587.45 9,725.50 6,049.15 3,630.95 168.46 9,85857 6,146.67 3,689.32 109.79 10,025.79
WA/lDSub-Totai 17,531.44 10,621.46 551.32 28,604.23 07,791.54 10,679.16 554.29 20,024.99 16,079.35 10,850.93 518.21 29,487.39
Case Total 23,194.28 14,033.06 662.70 37,910.03 23,537.73 14,234.53 70121 38,473.47 23,926.17 14,453.99 705.20 39,085.26
78 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
EXPECTED MIX
2024:2024:2024:2025:2025:2025:2026:2026:2025:
Area Residential Commercial led FIrmSale 2024 Total Residential Commercial Pod FlrmSale 2025 Total Residential Commercial md FirynSale 2026Total
Klaos Falls 94004 535.39 5.02 3,450.41 949.44 539.46 5.01 1,493.90 962.02 545.34 5.01 1,512.37
Laorande 449.85 302.78 28.15 785.77 451.01 310.44 25.15 789.59 453.70 313.27 28.15 795.12
Medlord GIN 2,57046 1,508.48 35.35 4,114.29 2,610.10 1,526.07 35.75 4,171.92 2,658.54 1,548.71 35.80 4,243.05
Medlord NWP 1,134.84 677.72 15.88 1,848.45 1,172.65 685.63 16.02 1,874.34 1,194.42 69550 16.08 1,906.30
Roseburg 847.41 629.16 64.82 1,541.40 858.76 632.47 64.63 1,555.87 873.47 637.93 64.62 1,576.02
OR Sub-Total 8,962.61 3,659.48 149.22 9,771.31 6,041,96 3:694.06 149.60 9,885.62 6,142.16 3,741.06 149.65 10,032.87
WA/ID Bath 10,674.30 6,406.73 326.03 17,407.06 10,799.03 6,481.43 325.27 17,609.73 10,960.49 6,977.61 331.44 17,869.73
WA/ID 0Th 1,472.32 883.69 44.97 2,406.99 1,489.53 894.06 45.42 2,426.94 1,511.80 907.29 45.72 2,454.80
WA/IDNWP 6,257.41 3.75574 191.12 10,204.27 6.33053 3,799.53 193.02 10,323.08 6,425.16 3,856.03 194.29 10,475.51
WA/IDSab-Total 18,404.03 11,046.16 962.13 30,01232 18,619.09 11,174.95 667.71 30,361.79 18,897.46 11,341.14 571.44 30,810.04
Case Total 24,366.64 14,709.65 711.34 39,783.63 24,66005 14,869.01 757.31 40,247.37 25,039.62 13,082.19 723.09 40,842.91
2027:2027:2027:2028:2028:2028:2029:2029:2029:
Area Residential Commercial led FirsnSale 2O27Total Residential Commercial Pod Firnssale 2026 Total Residential Commercial led FlrmSale 2029Total
Kiam Falls 972.59 550.24 5.01 1,527.84 989.35 558.30 5.02 1,552.67 997.75 561.94 5.01 1,554.71
La Groode 455.60 315.63 28.35 799,37 460,54 320.12 28.15 808.81 461,78 322.02 28.15 811.94
Medfard GIN 2,706.69 1,558.40 37.11 4,306.20 2,758.04 1,595.10 37.79 4,391.93 2,791.49 1,610.82 37.67 4,439.98
Modfard NWP 1,213.35 704.64 16.67 1,934 57 1,239.12 717.09 16.98 1,973.19 1,254.15 723.70 16.93 1,994.77
Rosehorg 886.85 642.56 64.57 1,593.99 903.43 649.83 64.76 1,618.02 910.82 651 55 64.57 1.52594
Oft Sob-Total 6,229.10 3,781.48 151.51 10,162.08 6,350.49 3,841.44 15170 10,344.62 6,416.09 3,870.03 152.32 10,438.34
WA/ID Both 11,099.57 6,561.55 333.26 18,094.47 11,310.25 6,786.85 335.89 18,433.06 11,425.73 6,856.68 338.06 18,521.47
WA/ID GTN 1,530.99 918.54 45.97 2,495.80 1,560.04 936.12 46.33 2,542.50 1,576.11 945.76 46.63 2,568.49
WA/ID NWP 6,506.77 3,905.13 195.36 10.60726 6,530.23 3,978.58 196.30 10,805.72 6,698.51 4,019.52 198.18 10,915.21
WA/ID SubTotal 19,137.43 11,485.51 574.58 31,197.53 19,506.53 11,701.55 579.13 31,781.21 19,701.34 11,821.96 582.87 32,106.17
Case Total 25,366.53 15,266.99 726.09 41,359.61 25,851.01 15,542.99 731.83 42,125.83 25,117.35 15,691.98 735.18 42,544.51
2030:2030:2030:2031:2031:2031:
Area Residential Commercial nd FirmSale 2030 Total Residential Commercial led FlrmSale 2031 Total
KIam Falls 1,009.93 567.60 5.01 1,582.60 1,022.21 573.31 5.01 1,600.52
La Groodo 464.85 325.27 28.15 818.26 467.90 328.39 28.15 824,44
Modford GiN 2,835.33 1,631.42 38.99 4,505.80 2,878.97 1,651.77 39.50 4,570.25
Modford NWF 1,273.87 732.96 17.52 2,024.34 1,293.45 742,10 17.75 2,053.30
Rasehorg 922.03 655.72 75.89 1,653.64 933.25 659.94 80.69 1,673.89
OR Sob-Total 6,506.13 3,912.96 165.54 10,584.64 6,595.78 3,955.51 171.10 10,722.39
WA/ID Bath 11,588.62 6,952.18 339.94 18,880.74 11,750.46 7,047.50 343.12 19,141,09
WA/IDGTN 1,598.44 958.93 46.89 2,604.26 1,620.76 972.08 47,33 2,640.17
WA/ID NWP 6,793.42 4,075.51 199.28 11,068.20 6,888.30 4,131.38 201 14 11,220.82
WA/ID Sub-Total 19,980.48 11,986.62 586.10 32,593.20 20,259.52 12,150.96 591.60 33,092.08
Case Total 26,486.61 15,899.58 751.65 43,137.83 26,855.31 16,106.47 762.69 43,724.47
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 79
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
LOW GROWTH HIGH PRICE
2012:2012:2012:2013:2013:2013:2014:2014;2014:
Area Residential Commercial ltd FlrmSale 2012 Total Residential CommercIal ltd FInnSale 2013Total Residential CommercIal ltd FlrmSale 2014Total
lOam Falls 830.20 479.70 5.02 1,314.92 832.39 481.98 5.01 1,319.37 778.93 457.96 5.01 1,241.90
La Grande 436.78 281.08 28.13 746.01 437.05 282.46 26.15 747.65 408.85 265.63 28.15 702.63
Medford GTN 2,122.03 1,321.59 27.83 3,471.45 2,132.06 1,321.98 28.25 3,482.30 2,010.33 1,254.69 28.25 3,293.27
Medford NWP 953.38 593.76 12.50 1,559,64 957.88 593.93 12.69 1,564.51 903.19 563.70 12.69 1,475.58
Rosehurg 709 37 582.82 49.59 1,341.78 711.99 584.45 49.44 1,345.89 673.31 597.11 48.35 1.279,77
OR Sub-Total 5,091.76 3,253,93 123.08 8,433.79 5,07138 3,204.80 123.39 8,459.72 4174.62 3,099.08 122.45 7,946.16
Wa/Id Both 9,217.51 5,568.18 309.22 15,094.90 9,284.07 5,593.04 309.79 15,186.89 8,714.68 5,278.14 300.26 14,293.07
Wa/Id GIN 1,272.38 768.02 42.65 2,082.06 1,280.56 771.45 42.73 2,094.74 1,202.02 728.02 41.41 1,971.46
Wa/Id NWP 5,403.37 3,264.11 18127 8,849.74 5,442.39 3,278.68 181.60 8,902.67 5,108.61 3.09409 176.01 8,378.72
Wa/Id lab-Total 19,892.25 9,6420,31 333.13 26,025.70 16,807.02 9,643.17 534.11 26,134.30 15,025.31 9,100.25 617.69 24,643.25
CaseTotal 20,944.01 12,859.26 656.22 34,459.49 21,07839 12,907.97 657.66 34,644.01 19,799.93 12,139.34 640.14 32,639.41
2015:2015:2015:2016:2016:2016:2017:2017:2017:
Area Residential Commercial ltd FimiSaie 2515 Total Residential Commercial ltd FlrmSale 2015Total Residential Commercial ltd FIrmSale 2017 Tatal
KIamFalls 767.68 453.49 5.01 1,226.18 159.37 450.10 5.02 1,214.49 756.36 448.48 5.01 1,209.85
La Grande 401.03 262.54 28.15 691.73 395.06 259.86 28.15 693.06 391.64 258.27 28.15 678.06
Medford GTN 1,991.60 1,242,65 29,61 3,263,87 1,979.78 1,236.56 3039 3,246.93 1,980.89 1,235.66 31.00 3,247.56
Medtord NWP 894.78 558.29 13,30 1,466.38 889.46 555.56 13.74 1,458,76 089.97 555.15 13.93 1,459.05
Rosebarg 667.29 551.43 48.00 1,266.72 664.25 547.20 48.76 1,260.21 664.25 544.53 49.86 1,258.63
OR Sub-Total 4,722.33 3,068.41 124.07 7,914.86 4,687.92 3,049.28 126.26 7,863.46 4,683.11 3,062,09 127.94 7,853.14
Wa/Id Both 8,598.84 5,218.85 300.16 14,117.85 8,513.90 5,179.09 300,23 13,993.30 0,488,77 5,169.66 300.23 13,958.67
Wa/Id GIN 1,180.05 719.04 41.40 1,947.29 1,174.34 714.36 41.41 1,930.11 1,170.87 713.06 41.41 1,925.34
Wa/Id NWP 5,040.71 3,059 34 175.96 0.276,01 4,99097 3,036.04 176.00 8,203.01 4,976.20 3,030.52 176(3)0,182.72
Wa/id lab-Total 14,823.60 8,998.03 517.52 24,34116 14,679.29 8,929.49 517.64 24,126.42 14,635.84 8,913.24 517.05 24,066.72
Case Total 19,547.98 12,066.44 641.59 32,23602 19,367.21 11,978.77 643.90 31,889.88 19,313.95 11,995.33 645.59 31,919.87
2018:2019:201e:2014:2019:2018 2020:2025:2028
Area Residential Commercial led FimiSale 2018Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2019 Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2020 Total
KIam FaIls 756.51 448.00 5,01 1,210.12 761.09 450.79 5.01 1,216.08 768.40 454.53 5,02 1,227.95
Laorande 389.93 257.81 20.15 675.89 390,35 258.72 28.15 677.22 392.17 260.62 28.15 690.94
Medford GTN 1,990.85 1,239.96 31.52 3,252.33 2,011.40 1,249.62 32.04 3,293,14 2,039.06 1,263,49 32.60 3,335.23
Medford NWP 094.44 557.00 14.16 1,465.60 903.71 561.42 14.40 1,479.53 916.10 567.65 14.68 1,498.44
Rosehurg 666.82 S43.97 51.15 1,261.94 672.77 545.69 52.56 1,271.02 681.42 549,34 54.16 1,284.93
OR Sub-Total 4,698.S4 3,047.43 129.99 7,075.96 4,739.40 3,066.24 132.15 7,937.79 4,797.16 3,095.63 134.69 8,027.49
Wa/Id Both 8,501.12 5,182.02 301,26 13,984.40 8,562.06 5,221.46 303.20 14,086.72 8,653.99 5,279.45 305.07 14,238.50
Wa/Id GIN 1,172.57 714.76 41.55 1,928.89 1,180.98 720.20 41.82 1,943,00 1,193.66 728.20 42.08 1,963.94
Wa/Id NWF 4.99344 3,037.77 17600 0,197.81 5,019.17 3.060,90 177.74 0,257.81 5,07306 3,004.00 178.83 8,346.80
Wa/Id Sub-Total 14,657.14 8,934.55 519.41 24,111.10 14,762.21 9,802.56 522.77 ‘24,297.55 14,920.71 9,102.55 525.99 74,549.24
Case Total 19,355.68 11,99198 649.39’31,987.06 19,501.61 12,069.80 634.92 •32,225.32 19,717.97 12,13618 660.68 32,576.72
2021:2021:2021:2022:2022:2022:2023:2023:2023:
Area Residential Commercial ltd Firmtale 2021Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2022 Total eesidettial Commercial ltd FirmSaie 2023 Total
KIam Falls 770.84 455,46 5.01 1,231.30 774.88 457.42 5.01 1,237.33 778.84 459.34 5.01 1,243.19
Laorande 391.49 260.72 28.15 680,35 391.70 261.45 28.15 681.29 391.87 262,15 28.15 682.17
Medford GTN 2,0S3.39 1,269.32 33.12 3,355.83 2,072.11 1,278.10 33.67 3,383.88 2,091.08 1,287,04 34.23 3,412.35
Medford NWP 922.54 570.27 14.88 1,507.69 930.95 574.22 15.13 1,520.29 939.47 575.23 15.38 1,533.08
Roseharg 685.26 549.52 55.51 1,290.29 690.82 551.05 57.04 1,298.91 69637 552.97 50.61 1,307.55
OR Sob-Total 4,823.82 3,109.29 136.67 •8,065.47 4,960.45 3,122.23 138.99 •8,121.67 4,897.64 3,139.33 141.37 8,179.34
Wa/Id Both 8,690.67 5,303.22 306.94 14,300.03 8,746.42 5,338.05 300.17 14,353.43 8,802.28 5,374.55 309.73 14,456.57
Wa/Id GTN 1,198.72 731.48 42.34 1,972.54 1,206.41 736,40 42.51 1,985.31 1,214.11 741.32 42.72 1,999.16
Wa/Id NWP 5,094.58 3,106.84 179.93 8,333.35 5,127.26 3,129,73 180.65 8,437.64 5,160.01 3,150,66 18157 8,492.24
Wa/Id lab-Total 14,983.96 9,143.55 529.21 •24,656.72 15,090.09 9,204.97 531.33 •24,816.38 15,176.40 9,256.53 534.03 23,976.96
Case Total 19,807,48 12,248.83 665.87 •32,722.09 19,940.54 12,327.20 670.32 •32,938.06 20,074.04 12.405,86 675.40 33,155.30
80 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
LOW GROWTH HIGH PRICE
2024 2024:2024:2025:2025:2025:2026:2026:2026:
Area Residential Commercial md FlnnSale 2O24Total Residential Commercial mdFlrmSaIe 2025 Total Residential Commercial md Flrmtale 2026Total
<lam Falls 786.69 463.33 5.02 1,255.04 786.59 463.12 5.01 1,254.72 79124 465.37 5.01 1,26161
Laorande 393.95 264.17 28.15 686.27 392.13 263.47 28.15 683.74 392.60 264.35 28.15 685.10
Medlord GIN 2,120.33 1,301.78 34.91 3,457.02 2,128.80 1,304.84 35.38 3,469.02 2,149.65 1,314.74 35.97 3,500.36
Medlord NWP 952.61 584.86 15.69 1,553.15 956.42 586.23 15.90 1,958.54 965.78 590.68 16.16 1,572.63
Roseborg 70537 556.80 60.41 1,322.59 707.54 555,65 61.87 1,325.06 713.83 557.63 63.59 1,335.05
DR lab-Total 4,956.15 3,170.74 144,18 8,274,06 4,97147 3,173.30 146.30 8,291.07 5,013.10 3,192.77 148.87 8,354.75
Na/Id Bath 3,90150 5,436.10 31175 14,650.35 8,912.55 5,444.59 314.06 14,671.21 3,975.96 5,484.13 315.71 14,775.35
Na/Id GTN 1,227.94 749.31 43.00 2,020.75 1,229.32 750.93 43.32 2,023.63 1,238.07 756.44 43.55 2,033.06
Na/Id NWF 5,218.76 3,136.75 132.75 3,588.26 5,224.66 3,19173 134.11 3,600.50 5,261.84 3,214.94 135.07 3,66135
Wa/Id lab-Total 15,349.20 9,372.66 537.50 25,259.35 13,366.53 9,387.30 54149 25,295.33 15,475.37 9,439.56 544.33 25,475.77
Case Total 20,303.34 12,343.39 681.68 33,533.42 20,338.00 12,360.61 637.60 33,336.41 20,488.97 12,643.33 693.21 33,830.81
2027:2327:2027:2028:2028:2028:2029:2029:2329:
Area Residential Commercial led Firmlale 2027 Total Residential Commercial led FirmSale 2026 Total Residential Commercial lsd FirmSale 2029Total
<lam FaIls 790.61 465.22 5.01 1,260.34 795.02 467.67 5.02 1,267.71 792.73 466.48 5.01 1,264.21
L.aorande 390.74 263.66 28.15 632.55 391.43 264.77 23.15 684.35 338.97 263.65 23.15 630,77
Medford GIN 2,156.50 1,317.88 36.57 3,510.95 2,175.76 1,327.87 37.30 3,540.93 2,176.32 1,327.25 37.80 3,541.37
Medlord NWF 968.36 592.09 16.43 1,577.33 977.52 596.58 16.76 1,590.85 977.77 596.30 16.98 1,591.05
Roseborg 716.09 557.11 65.24 1333.43 721.49 559.09 67.13 1,347.76 719.93 556.54 63.76 1,345.23
DR Sob-Total 9,02181 3,195.56 lSl4O 8,370.16 5,061.23 3,215.93 154.40 8,43161 5,085.71 3,210.22 158.70 8,422.63
Na/Id Both 3,930.67 5,491.01 316.37 14,783.05 9,043.48 5,53151 317.75 14,892.73 9,029.91 5,526.75 318.72 14,875.38
No/IdGTN 1,238.72 757.39 43.64 2,039.75 1,247.38 762.97 43.33 2,054.13 2,245.51 76132 43.96 2,051.79
Na/Id NWF 5,264.61 3,218.95 185.46 3,669.01 5.30143 3,242.69 136.27 8,730.39 5,293.48 3,239.90 186,84 8,720.22
Wa/Id Sob-Total 15,484.00 9,467.35 545.46 28,496.81 15,592.29 9,537.17 547.84 •25,677.31 15,568.90 9,528.97 549.52 25,647.39
Case Total 20,506.80 12,663.31 696.36 33,866.97 20,683.52 12,753.18 702.24 34,108.92 20,624.61 12,739.19 706.22 34,070.02
2030:2030:2030:2031:2031:2031:
Area Residential Commercial mod FirmSale 2030 Total Residential Commercial led Firmlale 2351Total
<lam Falls 793.43 466.96 5.01 1,265.40 794.11 467.44 5.01 1266.55
Laorotde 338.03 283.81 28.15 679.79 387.09 263.55 23.15 678.79
Medtord GiN 2,184.94 1,331.38 38.43 3,554.75 2,293.23 1,335.33 38.61 3,567.21
Medlord NWF 931.64 598.15 17.27 1597.06 985.36 599.95 17.34 1,602.66
tosehort 721.32 556.04 70.59 1,347.95 722.67 555.56 71.04 1,349.27
DR Sob-Total 8,069.36 3,216.14 159.44 •8,444.95 5,032.46 3,221.83 160.15 8,464.43
No/Id Both 9,05135 5,542.48 319.36 14,913.16 9,072.44 5,557.76 321.27 14,951.47
Na/Id GTN 1,248.47 764.49 44,05 2,057.01 1,251.38 766.60 44.31 2,062,29
No/Id NWF 5,306.05 3,249.13 187.21 8,742.39 5,318.42 3,253.09 188.33 3,764.34
Wa/Id Sob-Total 15,605.87 9,556.09 550.62 •25,712.88 15,642.23 9,582.45 553.91 25,778.59
Case Total 20,678.23 12,772.23 710.06 34,157.83 20,724.69 12,904.33 754.06 34,243.07
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 81
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE
2012:2012:2012.2013:2013:2013:2014:2014;2014:
Axea Residential Commercial md Firmsale 2Ol2Total Residential Cornenercial ltd Flr.nSale 2013total Residential Commercial mdFlrmSale 2Ol4Total
Slam Falls 854.74 491.34 5.46 1,351.53 866.16 501.53 5.44 1,372.13 889.34 513.91 5.44 1,408.69
La Grande 440.98 283.42 2.74 727.13 444.55 289.03 Z74 736.31 449.88 296.54 2.74 749.16
Medford GIN 2,149.26 1,328.84 14.34 3,492.44 2,189.93 1,338.15 14.45 3,542.54 2,267.08 1,361.28 14.45 3,642.73
Medlord NWP 965.61 597.02 6.44 1,569.07 983.88 601.20 5.49 1,591.57 1,018.53 611.59 6.49 1,636.62
Roseborg 715.91 58511 3312 1.33414 727.85 593.11 33.02 1,35398 752.82 605.50 33.02 1,39135
OR Sub-Total 5,126.49 3,285.72 62.09 8,474.31 5,212.31 3,322.01 62.15 8,596.53 5,317.63 3,388.82 62.15 8,628.60
WA/ID Bath 9,309.49 9,509.24 303.40 15,121.14 9,548.68 5,009.43 303.96 15,462.07 9,845.15)5,779.62 306.90 15,932.52
WA/ID GTN 1,284.07 759.76 41.85 2,085.67 1,317.06 773.71 41.93 2,132.70 1,358.07 797.19 42.33 2,197.59
WA/IDNWP 5,457.29 3,228.97 177.86 8,864,12 5,597.50 3,288.29 178.18 9,063.98 5,771.80 3,388.06 179.91 5,330.77
WA/IDSub-Total 16,050.83 9,496.98 923.11 26,070.94 56,463.24 9,671.44 524.07 26,658.75 16,975.87 9,964.87 528.15 27,469.89
Nigh Case Total 21,177.34 12,782.70 985.20 34,545.24 21,675.62 12,993.44 586.22 35,255.28 22,353.50 13,363.69 891.29 36,288.49
2515:2015;2015:2016:2056:2016:2017:2017:2817:
Area Residential Commercial led FirrnSale 2015Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2016Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2017 Total
Slam Fails 914.90 527.94 5.44 1,448.28 944.51 542.42 5.46 1,492.39 967.90 553.94 5.49 1,527.34
La Grande 455.21 305.86 2.74 763.81 453.09 314.65 2.74 780.50 418.56 320.41 2.76 791.72
Medtord GTN 2,353.41 1,398.45 15.24 3,765.10 2,448.94 1,441.44 15.66 3,906.04 2,532.86 1,481.95 16.04 4,030.85
Medtord NWP 1,057.33 527.39 6.85 1,691.57 1,100.25 647.60 7.04 1,754.89 1,137.95 665.81 7.20 1,810.96
Roseborg 779.93 61849 33.02 1,431.44 811.62 532.23 33.85 1,477 70 837.87 642.83 34.95 1,515.65
OR Sob-Total 5,560.78 3,476.13 63.29 9,100.20 5,768.41 3,578.38 84.74 9,411.52 5,945.15 3,664.93 66.44 9,676.52
WA/IDBoth 10,145.89 5,958.30 310.93 16,415.11 10,485.18 6,162.36 315.22 16,962.76 10,765.03 6,334.95 318.77 17,418.74
WA/IDGTN 1,399.43 821.84 42.89 2,254.16 1,446.23 849.98 43.48 2,339.69 1,484.83 873.79 43.97 2,402.59
WA/ID NWF 5,947.50 3,492.81 182 27 9,522.68 6,145.50 3,512.44 184,79 9,941.73 5,31055 3,713.52 185.85 10,211.04
WA/IDSub-Total 17,492.92 10,272.94 536.09 23,30t95 18,077.91 10,624.78 543.49 29,246.15 13,560.42 10,922.35 549.60 30,032.37
High Case Total 23,053.70 13,749.07 599.38 37,402.13 23,346.32 14,203.16 604.22 38,657.70 24,505.57 14,587.28 616.154 39,708.90
2018:2018:2018:2019:2019:2019:2020 2020:2020:
Area Residential Commercial ltd Firmsole 2013Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2019Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2O2OTotal
Slam Foils 994.34 557.38 5.56 1,567,28 1,021.01 581.19 5.63 1,607.83 1,052.51 597.83 5.73 1,856.08
La Grosde 479.70 327 22 2.79 805.72 452.95 334.05 2.83 819.83 492.45 342.52 2.87 83784
Medford GIN 2,527.30 1,529.13 16.49 4,173.42 2,723.43 1,577.30 16.99 4,317.72 2,831.70 1,633.14 17.58 4,482,41
Medlord NWF 1,130.50 557.00 7.41 1,875.02 1,223.57 708.54 7.53 1,939.54 1,272.21 733.73 7.90 2,013.54
Roseborg 86531 55558 36.22 1,558.19 694.90 888.95 37.58 1,601 44 928.44 685.66 39.16 1,653.25
085th-Total 6,144.75 3,766.39 62.47 9,973.63 6,349.87 3,870.12 70.66 10,258.66 6,577.31 3,992.88 73.25 10,643.44
WA/ID Both 11,086.55 5,531.21 323.60 17,941.46 11,411.79 6,730.05 328.82 16,470.56 11,791,41 6,961.29 334.50 19,087.20
WA/ID GTN 1,529.20 500.85 44.53 2,474.69 1,574.04 928.29 45.36 2,547,58 1,626.40 950.18 46.14 2,632.72
WA/ID NWP 6.499 10 3.021 68 189.70 10,517.47 6,659.70 3,945.24 192.76 10,82770 5.912 24 4,030.81 196.09 11,199.13
WA/IDSob-Total 19,114.95 11,260,74 557.93 30,933.63 1.9,675.53 11,603.55 566.94 31,846.05 20,330.06 12,052.28 576.72 32,909.06
High Case Total 25,259.71 15,027.14 626.40 40,913.25 26,021.40 15,473.70 637.60 42,132.71 26,907.36 15,995.16 649.97 43,552.49
2021:2021:2021:2022:2011:2022:2023:2023:2023:
Area Residential Commercial led FirmSale 2O2lTotol Residential Commercial ltd FirmSale 2022 Total Residential Commercial led FirmSole 2O23Total
Slam FaIls 1,076.35 610.66 5.82 1,592.82 1,105.21 625.54 5.93 1,737.68 1,135.28 843.47 6.07 1,784.82
Laorotde 498.38 348.32 2.92 849.63 506.70 355.87 2.98 815.55 515.56 353.81 3.05 852.43
Medtord GTN 2,919.45 1,578,34 18.14 4,515.93 3,021.34 1,732.25 18.81 4,772.40 3,128.96 1,790.21 19.57 4,938.74
Medtord NWF 1,311.64 754.04 8.15 2,073.52 1,357.41 778.26 8.45 2,144.12 1,405.76 804.30 8.79 2,218.85
Soseburg 954.91 598.04 40.64 1,603.59 986.39 714.04 42.37 1,742.80 1,019.44 731.40 44.27 1,795.11
DR Sob-Total 6,760.73 4,089.39 75.67 10,925.79 6,917.01 4,206.95 78.55 11,262.55 7,205.00 4,333.20 81.75 11,619.95
WA/ID Both 12,085.96 7,142,67 340.40 19,559.03 12,439.48 7,359.29 346.59 20,145,36 12,811.71 7,587.77 353.91 20,753,38
WA/IDGTN 1,517.03 985.20 41.95 2,699.16 1,715.79 1,015,08 47.81 2,778.56 1,787.14 1,046.59 48.81 2,852.55
WA/ID NWP 7,084.01 4.187,14 199.55 11,471.60 7,292.18 4,314.12 203 18 11,809.46 7,510.31 4,44806 207.46 12,165.89
WA/IDSob-Total 20,837.91 12,315.01 586.90 33,739.81 21,447.43 12,688.49 597.57 34,733.50 22,089.21 13,082.43 610.18 35,731.52
High Case Total 27,598.64 16,404.39 662.57 44,665.60 25,424.45 16,895.44 578.12 45,906.04 29,294.21 17,415.63 60L83 47,401.76
82 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE
202t 2024:2024;2025:2026;202&202&2026:2028.
Area Residential Commercial md FlnnSale 2024 Total Residential CommercIal md FlrmSale 2025 Total Residential Commercial lad FlrmSale 2026 Total
Slam Falls 1,17160 664.24 6.23 1,842.09 1,200.64 681.72 8.42 1,888.79 1,236.67 703.66 6.65 1,946.99
La Grancle 527.20 323.82 3.13 904.16 535.55 381.34 3.23 920.12 947.03 391.20 3.34 941.57MedfordGIN3,254.92 1,859.37 20.45 5,134.77 3,362.79 1,919.99 21.40 5,304.18 3,491.33 1,993.71 22.52 5,507.56MedtordNWP1,462.36 835.37 9.20 2,306.93 1,510.82 862.60 9.61 2,383.04 1,568.57 895.73 10.12 2,474.41Roseburg1,059.09 753.31 46.49 1.85890 1,092.31 771.64 48.70 1,912.64 1,133.04 795.29 51.32 1,979.64
OR Sub-Total 7,478.17 4,436,12 85.56 12,046.84 7,702.12 4,617.30 89.86 12,409-77 7,876.64 4,779.88 93.94 12,850.17
WA/ID Both 13,255.79 7,859.74 362.52 21,478.05 13,618.27 8,086.49 373.01 22,077.77 14,061.21 8,362.70 383.76 22,907.67
WA/ID GIN 1,828.39 1,084.11 5000 2,962.50 1,878.39 1,115.38 51.45 3,045.22 1,939.48 1,153.48 52.93 3,145.90
WA/IDNWP 7j70.70 4,607.50 212 53 12,590.71 7,983.19 4,740.43 218.66 12,942.28 8.24285 4,902.35 224.97 13,370.16WA/IDSub-Total 22,864.88 14,651,34 625.03 37,031.26 23,479.84 13,942.30 643.12 33,065.26 24,243.54 14,418.83 661.67 39,323.73
1686 Case Total 30,330.05 18,037.48 710.58 49,078.10 31,131.96 18,858.60 732.43 50,474.03 32,220.13 19,199.12 756.61 52,173.91
2027:2027:2027:2023:2023:2023:2029:2029;2029:
Area Residential Commercial led Firm5ale 2O27Total Residential Commercial md FlrmSaIe ZO2BTotal Residential Commercial md FlrmSale 2029Total
Slam Falls 1,275.45 727,97 6.92 2,010.34 1,322.58 757.88 7.26 2,087.72 1,363.42 785.81 7.63 2j.56.65
Is Grande 559.94 402.17 3.48 965.59 577.01 416.36 3.64 997.01 591.82 428.85 3.84 1,024,50
Medtord GIN 3,627.46 2,073.90 23.82 5,725.17 3,786.30 2,169.43 25.41 5,981.19 3,928.07 2,256.25 27.14 6,214.47MedfordNWP1,629.73 931.75 10.70 2,572.18 1,701.09 974.70 11.42 2,687.20 3,764.79 1,015.03 12.20 2,792.01Roseburg1,177.64 822.07 54.29 2,054.00 1,226.50 853.60 57.86 2,137.96 1,267.90 882.41 61.63 2,211.94
DRSub-Total 8,278.22 4,957.86 99.21 13,327.23 8,613.47 5,172.02 105.69 13,891.08 8,915.99 5,37134 113.44 14,399.76
WA/ID Both 14,537.11 8,661.52 396.24 23,594.87 15,112.69 9,023.46 411.20 24,547.34 15,622.26 9,35198 428.34 25,402.58WA/ID GTN 2,005.13 1,194.70 54.65 3,254.48 2,084.52 1,244.62 56.72 3,365.85 2,354.80 1,289.94 59.08 3,503.82WA/ID NWP 8.521,63 5.077,52 232.28 13,831.63 8,859.24 5,289.70 241.05 14,389.99 9,157.96 5,482.28 251.10 14,891.34
WA/ID Sub-Total 25,064.07 14,933.75 683.17 40680.99 26jI56.45 15,557.73 708.96 42,323.19 76,935.02 16,124.20 733.52 43,707.78
Hleh Case Total 33,334.29 19,891.60 782.37 54,008.27 34.669,92 20.733,80 814.55 56,214.27 35,851.01 21,495.84 850.95 58,197.51
2030:2030:2030:2031:2031:2031:
Area Residential Commercial IodFirmnSaIe 2O3OTotaI Resideotlal Commercial md FirmSale 2031 Total
Slam Falls 1,414.80 821.12 8.10 2,244.02 1,473.29 862.45 8.67 2,344.41
La Groode 611.46 445.01 4.07 1,060.54 634.36 463.63 4.36 1,102.35
Modtord GIN 4,102.52 2,371.21 29.29 6,503.02 4,306,14 2,50124 31.45 6,832.84
Medford NWF 1,843.16 1,065.33 13.16 2,921.65 1,931.95 1,123.75 14.13 3,069.83
Rosohore 1,320.56 919.82 66,25 2,306.64 1,381.23 964.23 70.15 2,415.62
OR Sub-Total 9,233.50 5,622.49 120.83 15,035.87 9,720.98 5,915.30 123.76 15,765.03
WA/IDBoth 16,257.92 9759.54 448.26 26,465.72 16,978.99 10,225.50 474.16 27,678.65
WA/IDGTN 2,242.48 1,346.23 61.63 3,650.46 2,341.94 1,410.42 65.40 3,817.76
WA/ID NWP 9,53059 5,721.20 262.78 15,514.57 9,953.29 5,994.35 277.96 16,225.60
WA/IDSob-Total 28,030.99 16,826.89 772.86 45,630.75 29,274.22 17,630.27 817.53 47,722.01
Hlh Case Total 37,323.49 22,449.33 893.74 60,666.62 33,995.20 23,545.57 946,29 63,437.05
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 83
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
AVERAGE MIX
2012:2012:2012:2013:2012.2013:2014:2014:2014:
Area Residential Commercial nd FlrmSaie 2012Total Residential Commercial ltd FIrmSaIe 2013l’otal Residential Commercial ltd FInnSale 2Ot4Total
Kiam Falls 805.15 467.19 5.02 1,277.65 61116 471.99 5.01 1,288.18 807.27 471.76 5.01 1,284.04
La Orande 421.11 270.35 28.15 719.60 422.57 273.25 28.15 723.97 417.30 272.22 28.15 717.67
Medford 0751 2,048.56 1,281.69 27.83 3,358.08 2,069.78 1,285.43 28.25 3,383.46 2,073.41 1,278.1.5 28.25 3,379.82
Medtord NWP 920.37 575.83 12.50 1,508.70 929.90 577.51 12.69 1,520.11 931.53 574.24 12.69 1,518.47
Roseburg 683.94 564.17 49.06 1,297.18 690.00 568.15 48.92 1,30707 691.51 566.72 48.61 1,306.84
OR Sob-Total 4,879.63 3,189.22 122.56 8,16141 4,923.43 3,176.33 123.02 8,222.78 4,921.04 8,163.09 122.72 8,206.84
Wa/Id Both 8,928.85 1,364.38 301.80 14,595.03 9,058.53 5,417.66 302.34 14,778.53 9,043.22 5,413.42 30173 14,758.37
Wa/Id 0714 1,231.57 739.91 41.63 2,015.11 1,249.45 747.26 41.70 2,038.42 1,247.34 746.68 4162 2,035.64
Wa/Id NWP 5,234.15 3,144.64 176.92 8,555.71 5,310.18 3,175.88 177.23 8,663.29 1,301.20 3,173.40 176.88 8,611.48
Wa/Id Sub-Total 19,394.97 9,248.93 520.33 25,163.89 15,613.16 9,340.81 52127 25,430.24 15,591.76 9,333.50 520.23 25,449.49
Avg.Case Total 20,274.20 12,408.15 642.91 33,328.26 20,541.89 12,517.14 644.29 33,703.02 20,512.80 12,496.99 542.98 33,682.33
2058:2015:2015:2016:2016:2016:2017:2017:2017:
Area Residential Commercial Ind Firmtale 2Ol5Total Residential Commercial ltd Firmlale ZOlSTotal Residential Commercial ltd FlrmSaIe 2Ol7Total
KIam FaIls 816.55 477.38 5.01 1,250.94 833.47 485.77 5.02 1,324.25 843.93 490.33 5.01 1,339.27
La Groode 417.78 275.94 28.15 721.86 422.36 281.08 28.15 731.58 423.91 283.31 28.15 735.37
Medtord 0TN 2,110.51 1,292.41 29.61 3,432.54 2,165.94 1,319.14 30.22 3,515.30 2,206.45 1,337.16 31.49 3,575.10
Medford NWP 948.20 580.65 13.30 1,542.15 973.10 592.66 13.58 1,579.34 991.30 600.75 14.15 1,606.20
Rosebarg 703.22 571.62 48.52 1,323.36 721.87 579.93 48.64 1,350.44 734.27 583.49 48.49 1,366.25
OR Sub-Total 4,996.26 3,198.09 124.59 8,313.86 5,116.74 3,258.56 125.61 8,900.90 8,199.87 3,295.04 127.27 8,622.18
Wa/Id Both 9,157.89 5,485.91 304.59 14,948.39 9,314.65 5,606.53 308.51 15,269.69 9,483.73 5,686.81 310.08 15,480.62
Wa/Id 0TN 1,263.16 756.68 42.01 2,061.85 1,290.30 773.32 42.55 2,106.17 1,308.10 784.39 42.77 2,135.26
Wa/Id NWP 5,388.43 3,215.89 178.55 8,762.88 5,483.78 3,286.61 180.85 8,951.24 5,559.45 3,333.68 181.77 9,074.90
Wa/Id Sob-Total 18,789.48 9,458.48 525.15 25,773.11 18,128.73 9,866.45 53191 26,327.09 16,38128 9,80483 83462 26,690.78
Aug.Case Total 20,788-78 12,656.48 549.74 34,091.97 21,248.47 12,925.01 697.52 34,828.00 21,581.15 13,099.92 66189 35,312.96
2018:2018:2018:2019:2019:2019:2020:2020:2020:
Area Residential Commercial rid FirmSale 201BTotal Residential Commercial Ind FirmSale 2019 Total Residential Commercial ltd FirmSaIe 2O2OTotal
KIam Falls 856.95 496.43 5.01 1,358.38 817.46 501.32 5.01 1,373.79 882.29 508.52 5.02 1,395.83
La Orande 426.91 286.42 28.15 741.47 428.73 288.73 28.15 745.61 432.66 292.55 28.15 753.35
Medlord GTN 2,255.22 1,359.92 32.00 3,647.14 2,297.58 1,379.59 32.00 3,709.17 2,350.19 1,405.41 32.15 3,788.25
Medlord NWP 1,013.22 610.98 14.38 1,638.57 1,032.24 619.82 14.38 1,666.44 1,056.11 63142 14.44 1,701.97
Roseburg 748.63 588.74 48,43 1,385.85 760.92 592.84 48.43 1,402.20 777.29 599.76 48.55 1,425.59
OR Sob-Total 5,300.93 3,342.43 128.01 8,271.42 5,386.94 3,382.29 127.97 8,897.20 5,499.02 3,437.66 128.30 9,064.99
Wa/Id Both 9,646.07 5,786.03 312.58 15,744.69 9,78114 5,869.87 314.64 15,965.65 9,964.43 5,981.80 316.85 16,263.08
Wa/Id 0Th 1,330.50 798.08 43.11 2,171.19 1,349.12 809.64 43.40 2,202.16 1,374.41 825.08 43.70 2,243.19
Wa/Id NWP 5,654.62 3,391.85 183.24 9,229.71 5,733.80 3,441.00 184.45 9,359.25 5841.25 3,501.62 181.74 9,533.62
Wa/Id Sob-Total 16,631.19 9,975.96 538.93 27,146.08 16,86406 10,120.51 542.49 27,527.06 17,180.08 10,313.50 546.30 28,039.89
Aug.Case Total 21,932.12 13,318.44 666.94 35,917.80 22,29100 13,802.80 670.46 36,424.26 22,679.11 13,781.16 674.61 37,104.88
2021:2021:2021:2022:2011:2022:2023:2023:2023:
Area Residential Commercial lndFlrnnlale 2O2OTotal Residential Commercial ltd FirmSaie 2O22TotaI Residential Commercial lndFirmSale 2O23TotaI
Kiam FaIls 890.86 512.25 5,01 1,403.12 900.41 516.71 5.01 1,422.13 909.64 521.04 5.01 1,435,69
La Orande 433.47 294.10 28.15 751.72 434.91 296.13 28.15 759.18 436,21 297.95 28.15 762.30
Medlord OTN 2,386.67 1,421.25 33.36 3,841.28 2,425.54 1,439.41 33.38 3,898.83 2,464.49 1,457.60 33.92 3,951.00
Medlord NWP 1,072.27 638.53 14.99 1,725.79 1,089.74 646.69 15.22 1,751.15 1,107.23 654.81 15.24 1,777.34
Roseburg 787.50 602.39 59.76 1,449.65 799.09 606 20 64.45 1,469.73 810.49 609.83 64.38 1,484.70
OR Sob-Total 5,570.79 3,468.52 14126 9,1BO.S6 5,549.69 3,509.14 146.70 9,301.82 5728.05 3,541.28 146.69 9,416.03
Wa/Id Both 10,076.87 6,050.44 318.95 16,446.27 10,202.08 6,127.43 320.25 16,649.75 10,325.78 6,203.40 321.84 16,851.02
Wa/Id OTN 1,389.92 834.55 43,99 2,26846 1,407.19 845.17 44.17 2,296.53 1,424.2S 855.15 44.39 2,324.29
Wa/Id NWP 5,907.17 3,346.86 181.97 9141.01 5,980.57 3,592.00 187.73 9,760.30 6,053.09 3,636.54 188.61 9,878.29
Wa/Id Sub-Total 17,373.97 00,431.35 549.92 23,395.73 17,589.84 10,S64.S9 552.15 28,706.58 17,803.12 10,695.58 554.89 29,053.60
Ave.Case Total 22,944.74 13,900.37 691.13 37,536.29 23,239.52 14,069.73 698.85 38,008.11 23,53113 14,236.87 70198 38,469.63
84 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
AVERAGE MIX
2024:4:2824:2025:2025:2025:2025:2026:2025:
Area Residential Commercial Ind IlmiSale 2024 Total Residential Commercial lad FimiSale 2025 Total Residential Commercial md FlrmSaie 2025 total
lOam Falls 923.71 527.89 5.02 1,455.62 929.68 530.47 5.01 1,465.16 940.31 535.49 5.01 1,480.81
La Grande 439,77 301.53 28.15 769.45 439.47 302.16 28.15 765.77 441.36 304.41 28.15 773.62
Medfard GiN 2,516.41 1,482.86 35.35 4,034.62 2,546.80 1,496.18 35.75 4,078.73 2,589.67 1,516,32 35.80 4,141.78
Medford NWP 1,130.56 666.21 15.88 1,812.65 1,144.21 672.19 16.06 1,832.47 1,163.48 68124 16.08 1,860.80
Roseharg 826.51 616.51 64.52 1,507.53 834.94 618.18 64.26 1,517.39 847.89 522.73 64.22 1,534.84
ORBub-Total 8,83696 3,595.00 149.91 9,530.87 5,895.10 3,619.13 149.23 9,563.52 5,992.71 3,660.19 149.26 9,792.16
Wa/Id Both 10,504.97 6,311.23 323.97 17,140.18 10,591.22 6,364.58 326.60 17,282.39 10,730.68 6,443.70 328.43 17,507.60
Wa/Id GIN 1,443.97 670.52 44.69 2,364.17 1,480.86 877.83 45.05 2,383.79 1,430.10 835.48 45.30 2,414.88
Wa/Id NWP 6,158.14 3,699.75 189.91 10,047.61 6,238.71 3731.03 191.45 10,131.19 6,290.45 3.76034 19253 10,263.33
Wa/id lab-Total 18,112.09 10,831.61 538.57 23,552.17 13,260.79 10,973.49 663.10 29,791.37 13,50124 15,018.52 666.26 30,136.01
Avg.Case Total 23,949.00 14,476,51 707.43 38,13104 24,135.89 14,592.67 712,33 39,460.90 24,483.95 14,778.71 713.51 38,978.17
2027:2027:2027:2028:2028:2028:2029:2029:2028:
Area Residential Commercial md Firm6ale 2027Total Residential Commercial Ind FirnnSaie 2023Total Residential Commercial Ind FlnnSaie 2029 Total
lOom Falls 949.16 539.65 5.01 1,493.82 962.67 546.27 5.02 1,513,95 967.90 546.52 5.01 1,521.43
La Grandr 442.58 306.27 28.16 776.99 446.17 309.79 28.15 764.11 446.11 310.74 28.15 784.95
Madford GIN 2,626.91 1,533.81 37.11 4,197.94 2,675.27 1,557.42 37.79 4,270.49 2,699.94 1,568.18 37.67 4,305.79
Medlord NWP 1,180.21 689.10 16.67 1,885.99 1,201.93 699.71 16.98 1,918.63 1,213.02 704.54 16.93 1,934.49
Rosebarg 659.71 626.58 64.15 1,550.44 873.47 632.33 64.28 1,570.08 876.19 632.62 64.03 1,574.84
oRSnb-Tatal 6,058.58 3,696.41 151.08 9,905.07 6,159.51 3,745.53 152.22 10,057.26 6,205.16 3,764.59 151.79 10,1.21.64
Wa/Id Both 10,850.16 6,521.66 329.97 17,701.76 11,023.96 6,626.52 332.05 17,992.55 11,104.69 6,676.35 333.69 16,114.71
Wa/Id GIN 1,496.58 899.55 45.51 2,441.64 1,520.56 914.01 45.80 2,480.37 1,531.69 920.86 45.02 2,499.60
Wa/Id NWP 6,350,51 3,823.12 193.43 10,377.06 6,452.41 3,884.59 194.65 10,541.65 6,509.72 3,913 80 195.61 10.619,33
Wa/id Sub-Total 18,707.25 11,244.32 568.91 60,920.48 19,006.95 11,425.12 672.51 31,004.07 19,146.10 11,511.04 575.31 31,232.44
Avg.Case Total 24,765.82 14,939.73 720.00 40,425.55 25,166.46 15,170.65 724.72 41,06183 25.35126 13.279,63 727.09 41,353.98
2030:2030:2030:20a1:2031:2031:
Area Residential Commercial md FirmSale 2030 Total Residential Commercial nd Firmsale 2031Total
KIam Falls 976.92 552.77 5.01 1,534.70 965.89 557.06 5.01 1,547.94
La Grande 447.87 313.04 26.15 789.06 449.61 315.20 28.15 792.95
Medford GTN 2,734.96 1,584.77 38.99 4,358.71 2,769.46 1,601.05 39.90 4,410.01
Mndford NWP 1,228.75 712.00 17.52 1,958.26 1,244.25 719.31 17.75 1,981.31
Rosebarg 866.70 635.35 75,26 1,597.32 995.18 638.13 79.90 1,613,21
OR Sob-Total 6,275.21 3,797.93 164.41 10,238.05 6,344.37 3,830.75 170.30 10,340.42
Wa/Id Bath 11,229.90 6,751.56 335.01 18,316.48 11,354.47 6,826.19 337.65 18,518.31
Wa/Id GTN 1,948.96 931.26 46.21 2,526.43 1,566.14 541.55 46.57 2,554.27
Wa/Id NWP 6.583 13 3,597.90 196.39 10,737.42 6,656.16 4,601.65 197.93 10,855.74
Wa/id Sab’Tatal 19,361.99 11,640.72 077.61 31,180.33 19,576.77 11,769.39 582.16 31,928.32
Ave.Case Tatal 25.637,20 13.438,66 742.92 41818.38 25.921,15 15.600,14 752.46 42273.74
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 85
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
COLDEST IN 20 YEARS
2022:2012:2012:2013:2013:2013:2014:2014 2014:Area Residential Commercial led FlnnSale 2012 Total Residential Commercial md PlnnSaIe 2013 Total Residential Commercial mdFlnnSale 36l4Totai(lam Falls 827.99 477.61 5.02 1,310.52 833.75 482.56 5.01 1,321.32 821.08 478.23 5.01 1,304.32LaGrande436.90 250.81 2815 745.86 438.49 283.86 28.15 750.50 428.75 280.19 28.15 736.89
MedlordGIN 2,105.83 1,310.93 27.83 3,444.58 2,127.79 1,314.84 28.25 3,470.88 2,110.43 1,296.73 28.25 3,435.42MedfordNWP946.10 588.97 12.50 1,547.57 965.97 590.72 12.69 1,559.38 948.16 582.59 12.69 1,543.45
Roseburg 704.92 578.06 49.41 1,332.36 711.22 582.16 49.26 1,34266 706.00 576.19 48.80 1.33099
OR sub-Total 5,021.74 9,236.36 122.90 8,381.01 5,067.22 3,204.16 123.37 8,444.74 8,064.41 3,213.74 5.22.90 8,355.06WA/IDBoth 9,135.27 5,506.37 305.97 14,993.51 9,315.65 5,561,50 306.42 05,183.57 9,204.35 5,903.95 304.05 15,012.34WA/IDGTN 1,266.36 759.50 42.19 2,088.07 1,284.92 767.10 42.26 2,094,29 1,269.57 759.17 41.94 2,070.67WA/ID NWP 9,36213 3,227.88 179.30 8,789.31 5,460.90 3,260.20 179.62 6,900.73 5,395.66 3,226.47 178.23 8,800.36
WA/IDSub-Total 15,829.78 9,493.75 927.36 25,850.89 16,061.48 9,588.81 528.31 26,t78.69 13,869.57 9,489.58 524.22 25,883.37Alt.Plan Case Total 28,83192 12,730.11 650.26 34,231.90 21,128,70 12,84236 651.67 34,623.33 20,883.98 12,70133 647.12 34,23443
2015:2019:2013:2016:3616:2016:2017:2017:2017:
Area Residential Commercial md PirmSale 2015 Total Residential Commercial Ind FirmSale 2016 Total Residential Commercial nd FlrniSale 2017TotalSlamFails830.38 483.73 5.01 1,318.51 845.54 491.42 5.02 1,341.98 352.73 494.46 5.01 1,352.20LaGrande429.01 283.67 28.15 740.83 432.86 233.38 28.15 749.39 432.86 289.61 28.19 790.61MedfordGIN2,147.14 1,310.60 29.61 3,487.35 2,199.25 1,335.59 30.22 3,565.06 2,231.99 1,349.71 31.49 3,61.3.19MedtordNWF964.66 558.82 13.30 1,566,75 988.07 600.05 13.58 1,601.69 1,102.78 606.39 14.05 1,623.32
Roseburg 117.60 580.94 4370 1,347.24 735.25 586.49 48.79 1.372,53 745.23 590.41 49.56 1,384.21ORSab-Total 5,088.49 3,247.76 124.77 8,461.01 5,206.96 3,303.93 129.76 8,630.65 5,265.59 3,330.58 127.37 8,723.53WA/ID Both 9,316.43 9,574.96 306.82 15,198.21 9,497.34 5,686.87 310.44 15,494.66 9,590.64 5,747.31 311.35 15,649.29
WA/ID GTN 1,285.03 768.96 42.32 2,096,31 1,309.98 784.40 42.82 2,137.20 1,322.95 792.73 42.94 2,158.53WA/ID NWP 5,46136 3263.10 379.36 6,909.33 5,967.42 3,333.71 161.98 9,083.11 5,62212 3,369.14 18292 9,173.77WA/IDSub-Total 16,062.81 9,612.02 529.01 26,203.84 16,374.74 9,364.98 535.24 26,734.96 16,539.60 9,909.18 536.81 26,981.69Alt.Plan Case Tatal 21,151.30 12,85978 363.77 34,664.86 21,575.70 13,108.91 661.00 33,343.61 21,801.19 13,239.76 664.18 35,705.13
2018:2018:2018:2019:2019:2019:2020:2020:2020:
Area Residential Commercial Intl PirmSale 2018 Total Residential Commercial led Pirmsale 2009 Total Residential Commercial md Pirmsale 2038TotalSlamFalls862.64 499.11 5.01 1,366.76 871.92 503.42 5.01 1,380.34 535.96 510.27 5.02 1,401.25LaGrande434.39 291.76 28.15 754.30 435.63 293.70 28.15 751.48 439.20 291.30 28 15 764.64
Medfnrd GIN 2,213.29 1,363.77 32.00 3,674.06 2,312,71 1,386.97 12.00 3,731.69 2,364.03 1,411.90 32.15 3,808.07MerltordNWP1,021.33 614.95 1436 1,650.67 1,039.05 623.13 14.38 1,616.56 1,062.10 634.33 14.44 1,13087Rnsebarg75725594.11 48.52 1,399.68 769.63 597.59 48.46 1.414,61 76445 604.12 49.55 1.437,12
Oft Sub-Total 9,348.90 3,348.70 128.06 8,849.67 9,427,94 3,404.82 127.99 8,960.75 5,939.74 3,457.91 128.31 9,121.96
WA/ID Both 9,119,02 9,921.62 313.23 15,859.81 9,840.50 5,8,13.97 315.05 16,059.61 10,015.43 6,011.11 317.11 16,343.76WA/ID GTN 1,340.56 503.81 43.20 2,157.57 1,357.31 814.34 43.46 2,215.11 1,381.44 829.14 43.74 2254.32WA/ID NV/F 5,697.39 3,416.23 193.62 9,297.23 5,766 60 3,460.99 18468 9,414.27 5.67116 3,523.67 136.99 9,580.91
WA/IDSubTstal 16,756.96 10,047.66 940.05 27,344.67 16,966.41 10,179.30 543.16 27,688.90 17,268.03 10,364.22 546.75 28,178.99Alt.Plan Case Total 22,105.86 13,416.37 668.11 36,190.34 22,394.35 03,584.12 671.17 36,649.64 22,803.77 13,822.13 675.01 37,300.94
2021:2021:2021:2022:3622.2022:2023:2023:2023:Area Residential Commercial md Firmsale 2023 Total Residential Commercial Ind FirmSale 2022 Total Residential Cnmrnercial md FlrmSale 2023 Total
Slam Falls 899.60 614.47 5.01 1,415.03 907.43 519.97 6.01 1,432.40 920.40 525.99 6.01 1,451.40Laorande440.61 299.20 28.19 767.86 442.98 301.96 29.15 773.05 445.94 304.94 28.13 779.03MedlordGTN2,402.61 1,429.06 33.36 3,865.23 2,447.60 1,460.01 33.95 3,931.49 2,496.23 1,472.77 33.92 4,102.93MedlordNWP1,079.92 642.04 14.99 1,736.56 1,099.65 651.45 15.22 1,766.32 1,121.49 661.68 15.24 1,793.42Rooeharg796.62 607.28 69.76 1,462.66 809.10 612.20 64.52 1,485.82 823.67 61763 64.52 1,505.73ORSub-Total 5,614.07 3,492.09 141.27’9,247.39 5,706.75 3,535.58 146.78 r 9,389.11 9,807.64 3,583.01 146.84 9,537.49WA/ID Both 10,139.86 6,086.54 319.39 16,545.79 10,290.31 6,177.79 321.11 16,789.19 10,496.19 6,277.08 323.33 17,056.65WA/IDGTN 1,399.63 839.53 44.06 2,282.19 1,419.36 852.11 44.29 2,315.76 1,442.24 866.51 44.60 2,352.65WA/ID NWP 5,944 10 3,568.02 167.23 9,699.35 6,03230 3,621.61 138.24 9,642.05 6,129.54 3,679.73 18957 9,993.94WA/ID Sub-Tntal 17,482.96 10,494.09 550.68’28,927.32 17,741.96 10,695.40 553.64 28,947.10 18,027.97 10,822.62 957.96 29,408.15Alt.Man Case Total 23,096.63 13,986.14 691.94 •37,774.71 23,448.71 14,186.98 700.41 •38,336.11 23,835.61 14,405.63 704.40 38,945.64
86 II CHAPTER 3 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 3.10 II DETAILED DEMAND DATA
COLDEST IN 20 YEARS
2024 202k 202k 2025;2028.2025:2026:20261 2026:
Area Residential Com,nerdai mdFInnSale 2624Total Residential Comnseedal Pod FlrmSale 2025 Total Residential Commercial mdFlrnssale 2026Total
(lam Falls 935.29 63319 5.02 1473.50 944.61 537.27 5.01 1,486.90 957.14 543.14 5.01 1,505.28
La Grande 449.85 305.79 28.15 786.77 451.01 310.44 28.15 789.59 453.70 313.27 28.15 795.12
Medford GIN 2,550.45 1,499.07 35.35 4,054.87 2,589.70 1,516.51 35.75 4,141.97 2,637.76 2,539.02 35.80 4,21258
Medlord NW?1,145.95 673.49 15.88 1,835.23 1,183.49 681.33 16.06 1,860.88 1,185.08 691.44 11.08 1,89261
Rosehurg 840.33 624.68 64.68 1529.70 851.56 62795 64.49 1,544.00 866.14 633.37 64.48 1,563.99
OR Sub-Total 5,921.77 3639.22 149.07 9,710.06 6,.37 3,673.91 149.46 9,823.34 6,099.33 3,720.24 149.51 9,969.53
WA/ID Both 10,644.70 6,390.16 325.65 17,360.51 10,168.97 6,464.59 328.88 17,562.44 10,929.99 6,560.73 331.05 17,82176
WA/ID GIN 1,469.24 881.41 44,92 2,394.56 1,485.38 89167 45.36 2,422.42 1,507.59 904.94 45.66 2,459.19
WA/ID NW?6,240.05 3,746.02 15090 10,171.97 6,312.91 3,78966 192.90 10.295,36 6,407.30 3,846.02 194.06 10,44738
WA/ID Sub-Total 18,952.99 11,017.53 561.47 29,93204 18,567.25 11,145.93 567.04 30,050.22 18,844.87 11,311.69 070.77 30,727.63
Alt.Plan Case Total 24,274.76 14,656.80 710.54 39,642.11 24,567.62 14819.44 716.50 40,103.56 24,944.56 10,031.93 720.29 40,696.91
2027:2027;2027:2028:2023:2023:2029:2029:2029:
Area Residential Commercial led Fimilale 2O27Total Residential Commercial nd FlrmSale 2O28TotaI Residential Commercial led FirmSale 2O29Total
141am Falls 967.85 545.02 8.01 1,520.68 984.35 88505 5.02 1,545.42 592.70 595.67 5.01 1,557.37
La Grande 455.60 315.63 28.15 799.37 460.94 320.12 28.15 908.81 461.78 322.02 28.15 811.34
Medford GIN 2,679.59 1,556.59 37.11 4,279.29 2,736.55 1,586.15 37.79 4,360.50 2,769.85 1,600.74 37.57 4,409.07
Medford NW?1,203.87 702.24 15.67 1,920.78 1,229,47 712.52 15.98 1,959.07 1,244.34 719.17 15.93 1,980.44
Roteburg 879.43 537.98 84.43 1,581.84 895.87 545.21 54.52 1,505.70 903.17 545.85 54.43 1,514.49
OR Sub-Total 6,186.15 3,760.46 1,01.37’10,097.98 6,306.79 3,820.14 152,56 ‘10,279.49 6,371,64 3,863.49 102.12 10,672.30
WA/ID Both 11,058.80 6,544.27 332.87 18,045.94 11,278,93 5,759.92 335.90 18,383.78 11,394.95 5,838.90 337.67 18,571.53
WA/ID GIN 1,926.74 915.45 49.91 2,489.11 1,855.72 933.71 46.28 2,535.70 1,571.73 843,30 46.57 2,95151
WA/ID NW?5,488.68 3,895.02 195.13 10,578.81 6,511.87 3,968.31 196.65 10,776.85 5,579-89 4.409 10 197.94 10,881.93
WA/IDSub-Total 19,094,22 11,409.73 973.91 •31,113.86 19,446.52 11,671.33 578,45 31,696.31 19,646,53 11,791.31 582.13 32,020.07
AltPlan Case Total 25,270,37 18,218.19 725.23 •41,211.84 25,753.32 15,49148 731.01’41,975.80 25,018.22 15,639.80 784.36 42,39238
2030:2030:2030:2031:2031:2031;
Area Residential Commercial Ind FirmSaIe 2030Total Residential Commercial ltd FirtnSale 2031 Total
KIam Falls 1,004.85 555.31 5.01 1,579.18 1,017.02 970.99 5.01 1,583.02
La Grande 454.85 925.27 28.15 818.26 457.90 328.39 28.15 824.44
Mndford GIN 2,813.22 1,621.21 38.99 4,473.41 2,855.45 1,541.44 39.90 4,537.39
Medford NW?1,263.91 728.37 17.52 2,009.79 1,283.33 737.46 17.79 2,038.54
Roseburg 914.27 851.04 79.75 1,541.05 925.41 555.23 80.52 1,561.15
ORoub-rotal 6,461.11 3,891.19 165.40 10,517.70 6,950.11 3,933.50 170,92 10,694.83
WA/ID Both 11,593.41 5,934.15 339.54 18,830.12 11,717.81 7,029.24 34272 19,089.77
WA/ID GIN 1,594.00 956.44 45.83 2,587.27 1,516.25 969.66 47.27 2,633.09
WA/ID NW?5,774,54 4,064.94 190.04 11,038.52 6,869 16 4,120.58 200.91 11,190.74
WA/IDSab-Total 19,924.94 11,985.55 585.42 32,468.91 20,203.22 12,119,47 590.90 32,913,60
Alt.Plan Case Total 28,336.86 15,848.74 7582 42,983,62 26,753.33 16.052-96 76183 43,563,14
APPENDIX 4.1 II AvISTA GAS CPA REPORT 4/30/2012
AI 17
Rv:is.i A
2O12AVISTANATURALGASRP II 1
I EJBrgY Partners
iv
••
-
ppbHc.cpm
AVISTA UTILITIES
GAS CONSERVAUON
POTENUAL ASSESSMENT
2 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
ThIs report was prepared by
Global Energy Partners
An EnerNOC Company
500 Ygnaclo Valley Blvd.,SuIte 450
Walnut Creek,CA 94596
Project Team:
I.Rohmund,Director
3.Borsteln,Project Manager
0.Costenaro
A.Duer
B.Kester
F.Nguyen
A.Sanchez
S.Yoshlda
ob Ererq Prts
4n ErrOC Company
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
Avista Utilities (Avista)has contracted with Global Energy Partners (Global)to conduct a
conservation potential assessment (CPA)to quantify the amount,the timing,and the cost of
natural gas energy conservation resources available within the Avista service territory.ThepurposeofthisstudyIstoestablishcost-effective and achievable energy conservation resources
for the 2013—2032 period to support development of Avista’s 2013 gas Integrated Resource Plan
(IRP).
Key objectives for the study Include:
•Determine the conservation potential for natural gas for Washington,Idaho,and Oregon,fortheperIod2013—2032,based on Avista’s service territory characteristics.
•Develop energy conservation measure (ECM)data sets for each market sector and eachappropriatemarketsegment.
•Categorize the potential by market sector,segment,building type,and ECM.
•Using parameters provided by Avista,calculate the Total Resource Cost (TRC),and measureieveilzedcostoftheECMs.
•Provide supply curves of achievable potential.
Definitions of Potential
In this study,the conservation potential estimates represent gross savings1 developed into threetypesofpotential:technical potential,economic potential,and achievable potential.Technical
and economic potential are both theoretical limits to efficiency savings.Achievable potentialembodiesasetofassumptionsaboutthedecisionsconsumersmakeregardingtheefficiency of
the equipment they purchase,the maintenance activities they undertake,the controls they use
for energy-consuming equipment,and the elements of building construction.These levels are
described below.
Technica(potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of conservation potential.It
assumes that customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of cost.At the time of equipment
failure,customers replace equipment with the most efficient option available.In newconstruction,customers and developers also choose the most efficient equipment option.
Examples of measures that make up technical potential In the residential sector Include:
•High efficiency furnaces and boilers
•High efficiency water heaters
•High efficiency clothes dryers
Technical potential also assumes the adoption of every available non-equipment measure,whereapplicable.For example,It Includes Installation of high efficiency windows In all new constructionopportunitiesandfurnacemalntenanceInallexistingbuildingswithfurnacesystems.The retrofit
measures are phased In over a number of years,which is longer for hlgher-ost measures.
Economic potential represents the adoption of all €st -elfen i,v r conservation measures.Inthisanalysis,the total resources cost (TRC)test,which compares lifetIme energy and capacity
benefits to the Incremental cost of the measure,is applied.Economit potential assumes that
Savings ri “gross terms nsteac of’net’arrra means thai the oase’c’ecas does nnt ‘c ,da nt.,’ali1 ee”cy.In,ot.e’words,te baseline at ene’g efficierty levels rrr’n flied as t’cf are today “he.rule in,lds true eviept 0wherefuturecodesaridsla”dards re on tne bool beFce ‘lovemt,er211 e.g the effec cf the cmni ‘ur-a:e and wete’heassm sterards
Enen j Pa _rS
Ar,EnerNOC Company
4 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avsta Itas Ga Conarvaton Potenta A55esmnt ---Exacuuv Summary
customers purchase the most cost-effective option at the time of equipment failure and also
adopt every other cost-effective and applicable measure.
Achievable pctentiItakes into account market maturity,customer preferences for energy-
efficient technologies,and expected program participation.Achievable potential establishes a
realistic target for the conservation savings that a utility can hope to achieve through its
programs.It Is determined by applying a series of annual factors to the economic potential for
each ECM.These factors represent the ramp rates at which technologies will penetrate the
market and were based upon the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Sixth Plan (NWPCC)
ramp rates,Although Avlsta Is not required to use the Sixth Plan ramp rates for Its gas CPA,the
project team chose to use those ramp rates for consistency with the Avlsta 2011 electricIty CPA.
Also,these ramp rates have been widely vetted and are accepted by regional stakeholders.
Details regarding the ramp rate development appear in Appendix E.
Analysis Approach
To perform the conservation analysis,Global used a bottom-up analysis approach as shown In
Figure ES-i and outlined below.
1.Met by phone with Avista staff to refine the objectives that were identified in the Avista RFP.
This resulted in a work plan for the study.
2.Performed a market characterization to describe sector-level natural gas use for the
residential,commercial,and industrial sectors for the base year,2010.This included using
utility data and secondary data from sources such as the American Community Survey (ACS),
and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
3.Utilized secondary sources including Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEAA)data and
market reports to understand how customers in the Avista service territory currently use gas.
Combining this Information with the market characterization,we developed energy market
profiles that describe energy use by sector,segment,and end use for 2010.
4.Developed a baseline gas forecast by sector,segment,and end use for 2013 through 203?.
5.Identified and analyzed energy conservatlons measures appropriate for the Avista service
territory.
6.EstImated three levels of conservation potential,Technical,Economic,and Achievable.
The results from these steps are summarized below,with details provided In the body of the
report.
www.enernoc.com
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 5
Avista Ublitles Gas Consrvabon Potential Assessment Exectvo Summary
Figure ES-i Overview ofAnalysis Approach
Av,sta date
CustomerSurveys
Fnd-nue ‘ut by
segment
Technical and economic
potential ‘oru,s
Achievable potential
Supply curves
Sce’iuric analyses
Custom analyses
Project report
Market Characterization
Avista UtIlities,headquartered in Spokane,Washington is an Investor-owned utility with annualrevenuesofmorethan$1.3 bIllion.Avista provides electric and natural gas service to about 481,000customersinaserviceterritoryofmorethan30,000 square miles.Avista uses a mix of hydro,naturalgas,coal and biomass generation delivered over 2,100 miles of transmission line,17,000 miles ofdistilbutionline,and 6,100 miles of natural gas distribution mains.Avista currently operates aportfolioofelectricandnaturalgasconservationprogramsInWashington,Idaho,and Oregon forresidential,low-income,and non-residential customers that is funded by a non-bypassahie systemsbenefitscharge.
Total natural gas use in 2010 for the residential,commercial,and industrial rate classes IncludedInthispotentialassessmentwas315,905,627 therms.2 Table ES-i shows detail by state andsector,Including the rate classes Included In each sector,number of meters,sales,and averdgeusepermeter.The largest sector is residential,accounting for 59,8%of system sales,followedbylargecommercialwith22.5%and small commercial with 16.0%.The gas transportation rateclasses,which Include relatively large commercial and industrial facilities,were excluded from theCPAanalysis.Therefore,most of the remaining industrial customers,which represent only 1.6%of sales included In this CPA,are relatively small In terms of their gas usage per meter.
Enemy eace as easured at--ete’’i.e oz nc inlutle pipeline ic$sec.
Globa’Eney Partners
An EnerNOC Company
Marlet segmentation
and characterization
Base-year energy use
fuel,segment
Avista data
Enneennganalysis
Program results
Survey data
Secondary data
6 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Sma Commerca N/A 33,317 50,693 :6.3%1,672
Large Commerc a:N/A 3,429 71,176 22.5%20,818
:ndustr’a’N/A 253 5,141 1.6%20,322
Total 316,407 3i5906 100.0%998
ResdentaI 101 132,657 97,372 58.3%734
Sma Corn erca 101 11,906 16,706 10.0%1,403
Large Comnerca 1L,112,:21,:22,:32 2,292 49,808 298%21.73:
Industrar 101,ii:,121,2.22 132 3,135 1.9%23,752
Wuhington total 146,981 167.021 100.0%1,136
Resdentfa[231 65,648 44,084 612%672
Sma Cornmerca 101 7,398 8,432 12.7%1,140
Large Cornrnercaf 11.,132 1,052 :7,823 24.7%16,971
ndustraI 101,111,1:2 99 1.63.2.3%16,978
Idaho total 74,195 72,011 100.0%971
Residentral 410 84,114 47,438 61.7%56L
5rna Com’nerca 420 11,013 25,556 332%2,32
Large Cornme’c &424 77 3,548 4.6%46,08
ind,str 470,424 325 2.4%14,)81
Oregon total 95,226 76.861 100.0%807
AvsLa U,tvs Gas Corsnrvaton PoaAsessmeit ExccvSmmary
Table ES-i 2010 Gas Sales by State and Sector
Resldentral N/A 282,428 138,894 59.8%669
vi w.’v.enernoc.com
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 7
sta Utttirs Gas Consmvation ‘ctejaI Assessment Execute Summary
Total residential gas use in 2010 was 188.9 mIllion therms.Customer information for eachsegmentisshowninTableES-2.System wide,the single-family segment consumed 84%of totalresidentialsectorgasIn2010asaresultofhavingthelargestnumberofcustomersandthehighestIntensity.
Table ES-2 Residential Sector Gas Usage and Intensity by State andSegment Type
All Statea Number of ZOlOSales %of System Rca.IntensityResidentialSegmentMeters(1000 thm)Sales (thm/HH)
MuIt Far-i y 25,755 11,615 6%451
MobleHorrre 33,729 19,45 10%577
Total 282,418 188,894 100%669
SngIeFamly 1C7,230 83,143 85%775
Multt Far-I y 14,318 6,994 7%488
Mobie Home 11,109 7,235 7%651
SrgeFamiiy 51,487 36,371 83%706
Mtiti Farrl1y 4,648 2,068 5%465
MobleHome 9,513 5,645 1,3%593
Idaho Total 65,648 44,084 100%672
Srge rarnIy 64,217 38.317 81%597
Vultc Far-I y 6,789 2,552.5%376
VobreHorne 13,107 i,57C 14%501
Or.gon Total 84,114 47,438 100%564
Srge Famtly 222,934 157,830 84%708
Energy Parrers VUAnEr’erNOC Company
8 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avost cs Ge Cor5crvaon Potent&Asaasmar ----Excutvc Summary
Figure ES-2 shows the breakdown of annual use by end use for the average home in each state
and for the Avista residential sector as a whole.Space heating constitutes 77%of gas usage In
WashIngton,73%In Idaho,and from 71%In Oregon,reflecting the differences In climate among
the states.
Figure ES-2 Annual Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use andState,2010
800
730
0
60C
400
300
I :::
•Space Featlrg
Water -leatin
•App1arces
•Msceltaneous
Total natural gas use in the commercial and industrial (C&I)sector in 2010 was 127.0 million
therms.Avlsta rate classes were used to allocate this energy use to three segments per state.
Intensity estimates in themisfsq.ft.were developed and then used to infer the segment size In
floor space for each segment.Table ES-3 displays the resulting sales,intensity,and segment
size.Due to the characteristics of the rate structures,a greater percentage of C&I customers in
Oregon are classified as small commercial,as compared with Washington and Idaho.
500
Wasrngtor Iàaho Oregoc All Hones
,wweneno(Carl
2O12AV1STANATURALGASIRP II 9
Figure ES-3 illustrates the distribution of gas consumption by end use for small commercial,largecommercial,industrial,and C&I facilities as a whole.As one would expect,space heating is thepredominantuse,representing 63%of overall C&I gas consumption.For industrial facilitieshowever,process heating represents the greatest share.
C rb&Energy Partners
An EnerNOC Company
Avsta Ubltlca Gts Conaorvaton Poto’itlal Assessment
C&ISectorGas Usage and Intensity by State andSe
rec,Jtve Summary
Sma Cor,rercial
Idaho Rat.ZOIOSiI.s %oflD Intensity S.gmentSia
Sector Class (lO00thm)C&ISal.s (thm/sqft.)(million aq.ft)
101 8,432
Idaho rotal
30%
Large Commercral 132 17,620 64%C 63C 28 285
Industrial 1CI,11 1,68:6%92.215
0.347 24.335
27.933 100%
Small Coe’ta 420
509 54.935
25.555
Oregon Rat.2OlOSsl.s %ofORC&l Int.nilty S.gnientSlz.
Sector dais (l00Othm)Sales (thm/sq.ft.)(mllIlonsq.ft)
87%
Large Con’rre’c!ai 424 3,548 12 0.6CC
l’idustai 420,424 325 1%0.72E
Oregon Total 29.429 100%353
C.33C
10 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Ava Uttas Ga5 Cor’scrvatjon Potrta Assesmnt
Figure E5-3 C&J End Use Intensities,2010
1.40
EyCcjtJv’2 $rnmary
Baseline Forecast
Prior to developing estimates of conservation potential,a baseline end-use forecast was
developed to quantify how natural gas Is used by end use In the base year and what the
consumption Is likely to be In the future In absence of new utility programs and naturally
occurring conservation.The baseline forecast serves as the metric against which conservation
potentials are measured.
Referring to Table ES-4,natural gas use across all three sectors Is expected to Increase by 28%
between the base year 2010 and 2032,for an average annual growth rate of 1.t%.Overall,the
forecast for the next 20 years grows steadily,dominated by growth In the residential sector.
E°:•Space Heating
•Wate -eatrg
•Food Preparatior
•Process
M’scellaneous
SnaI ..rge
CommetaI Comqecia
IndustrTal Al C&l
wwwenernOL.cOr
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 11
Asts Ut]Itics Gs Cons-vaLor ?aI Assessment Eyecut’s SLimmary
Table E5-4 Baseline ForecastSummary (1000 thenn)
Resdenta :88.894
Srn.Commercial 50,693 5O,.3C 50,530 51,271 52,378 53,494 55,12C 9 0.4%
Lg.Commerca’71,176 69274 69,647 70,392 71,667 73,191 75295 6’.02%
InthstriaI 5,141 5.026 5,167 5,156 5,274 5,409 5,560 8>,03%
Total 3L5,906 320,503 322,693 330,932 349,097 373,385 405250 28%1.1%
Wash ngton :67,021 168,616 i69,523 173,064 180,908 191,260 215,302 23 0.9%
da)o 77,011 73,767 14,426 76,910 82,417 89.742 99,277 38Y,1.4%
0rego 76,867 78,121 78744 80,958 85,762 92,383 100,671 31’>12%
Total 315,906 320,503 322,693 330,932 349,097 373,385 405,250 28%1,1%
Figure ES4 and Figure ES5 present the baseline enduse forecasts for the residential and C&1sectorsrespectively,while Figure ES-6 displays growth system wide.
Figure ES-4 Residential Baseline Forecast by End Use
300,000
250.000 ..—_.
c [I.1ziii
7013 213 ?01 2311 2022 2027 2C2
Gob&ney Partners
An EnerNOC Company
196,073 .97,449 204,112 2:9.778 241,292 269,274 434 1.5%
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2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 13
Avsta UtIs Gas Consorvator,Potontal Assssmont Exoctve Smmari
Equipment inensures,or efficient energy-consuming equipment,save energy by providing
the same service with a lower energy requirement.For equipment measures,many efficiency
levels are available for a specific technology that range from the baseline unit (often
determined by code or standard)up to the most efficient product commercially available.For
instance,in the case of residential furnaces,this list begins with the federal standard energy
factor (EF)0.78 unit and spans a broad spectrum of efficiency,with the highest efficiency
level represented by an EF 0.96 unit.
•Ncnn-equiprnent measures save energy by reducing the need for delivered energy but do
not involve replacement or purchase of major end-use equipment (such as a furnace orwaterheater).An example would be a programmable thermostat that is pre-set to reduce
the load on a furnace or boiler when the building is unoccupied.Non-equipment measures
fall into one of the following categories:
•Building shell (windows,insulation,roofing material)
•Equipment controls (thermostat,occupancy sensors)
•Equipment maintenance (cleaning filters,changing setpolrits)
•Whole-building design (natural ventilation,ENERGY STAR home)
•Commissioning and retrocommissioning
Conservation Potential Results
Table ES-5 summarizes the achievable potential by state and by sector for selected years.As
shown in Figure ES-7,initially,the large commercial sector provides a relatively higher
percentage of the achievable savings compared with its share of sales,but over time this
situation reverses so that the residential sector’s share of savings is greatest,mainly due togrowthinresidentialcustomercount.
Table ES-5 Cumulative Achievable Conservation Potential by State and by Sector
Total 1546
Goba energy Patners
An EneiNOC Company
Washingtor 893 2,233 6923 15,364
a,o 364 821 2.734 5,601 8,758 1.,914
Oregon 289 715 3,136 7,251 10,706 :3,559
Total 1,546 3,738 12,794 28,216 41,349 52,381
21,885 26909
Resicertial 55 1,567 6,507 14903 22,278 29,960
Srna I Cornercal 206 469 2,588 3 557 5,739 7,018
Large Comn,ercia[801 1,654 4548 9,436 13,0C7 :5,027
Incst-’aI 25 49 151 319 354 377
3,738 12,794 28,216 41,349 52,381
xiii
14 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avta jttes Gas Cnsrvaon Potant&Ass.ssmant bccj’ve S.n,rnar
Figure ES-7 cumulativeAchievable Conservation PotentialSavings by Sector
60,000
E
5C,00
CCC
4C,00 ——--—-——-—————---“-———-———--——
IndustrialC
3c,00:-•—•---—.——..——..—--—Large Commercial
.n Small Corner cial
?c,00:--•Residential
1c,00 •-—.-.-—.——.“—--
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Table ES-6 and Figure ES-8 summarize the conservatIon savings for the different levels of
potential relative to the baseline forecast.Figure ES-9 displays the baselIne and potential
forecasts.
•Achievable potential across the residential,commercial,and Industrial sectors Is 29.6
million therms in 2022 and increases to 53.8 million therms by 2032.These savings represent
8.5%of the baseline forecast in 2022 and 13.3%In 2032.
•Economic potential,which reflects the savings when all cost-effective measures are taken,
is 34.6 million therms In 2022.This represents 9.9*of the baseline energy forecast.By
2032,economIc potential reaches 61.8 mIllion therms,15,3*of the baseline energy
forecast.
•Technical potential,which reflects the adoption of all conservation measures regardless of
cost-effectiveness,Is a theoretical upper bound on savings.Technical potential Is substantial,
because measures such as solar thermal water heating could cut energy use dramatically.In
2022,energy savings are 103.5 million therms,equivalent to 29.7%of the baseline energy
forecast.By 2032,technIcal potential reaches 169.4 million therms,41.8%of the baseiine
energy forecast.The relatively wide gap between technical and economic potential reflects
the low avoided costs,as well as the fact that Avista’s long-running conservation programs
have already achieved much of the cost-effective conservation.As a result,additional
conservation measures are becomIng relatively more costly,and many do not pass the cost
effectiveness screen based on Avista’s current avoided costs.
thi e,)rIsrre arJ .whrr’.ib pntr’t C>e5c ,r ude.res,er,ta h”iz,rt t’.i rr.n.,l,,...
rrcluce in ujjIir OS?”raria ?“arr f These naaJres d’nQt ns ire 6/C sel i the analysis “c.de t were nrtheiess
riec in e’s’rsnrc and aeva1e ,centiai
.rnoccom
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 15
Avtt Ut[6e Gc Co ervotoi ?Meni,Assest’ient Exc.veSmry
Table ES-6 Summary ofCumulative Achievable,Economic and Technical Conservation
Potential
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Baseline Forecast (1000 thm)
32,53 322,693 33C,932 349,C7 373,35 j 4C5.2
Cumulative Natural Gas Savings (1000 Ibm)
Ahevable 1,546 3,738 12,794 28,216 41,349 52,381
Economic 1,797 4,333 14,785 31,757 45,809 58,965
Technical 7.623 15.844 46,189 91,655 131,422 157,520
Cumulative Natural Gas Savings “of BaseTin
A:’-5”Z’29 1.:11 1-’
[E-’m”06’.t3 4,5..1:
2.4%4,9k’.14 0.6.3.3 2’.38
Figure ES-8 Summary of Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings
4 —‘-Ecorior,c ---——-------0
•Tecl’’:aI .‘--
Ina
I 1 1
2013 20:14 201’2022 2027 203?
GiobI Erierq ‘,,ii-rc
Ar E”NOC Compan
16 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Av5t2 ‘Jtft,a Ga Carrvaton Poterta’A’ssmont Execuhve Summary
Figure ES-9 Conservation Potential Energy Forecasts (1000 therm)
450,000 ———-—-——-—
_________________________
400,000 -
_____
350,000 —-—-—-—‘-———-
I :::z:ziz’z:z ___..ZZZZZZE._
2C’0000
‘C
——Baseline
—‘Acnevabie
-
Econorr’c
10000.)
_________________
—Techfta
—----2CIOUse
50,000 ___.___._
_.
C --
--•-
——-‘——-—r----,
‘..o q,‘t ‘b q,,.‘I,v -#-#-4’
The greatest sources of residential achievable potential in 2022,across all three states,are as
follows:
•Shell measures and ,nsul.ir,on,which representing 6.4 millIon therms or 43%of all
savings
•Thermostats and home energy monitoring -yi’rns,which provide 3.5 millIon therms
or 24%of all savIngs
•Water-saving devices,including low-flow showerheads and faucet aerators,whic.h
combine for 3.2 millIon therms or 21%of achievable potentIal
•Wate,heater tank blanket’and pipe r,suIdr,on,which provide an additional 1.3 million
therms or nearly 9%of achievable potential
The primary sources of C&I achievable savings are as follows:
•“‘siv rrar7;gern-rir y’ttni and ptoq ,n,r,?,b/P tbr’,m.’-t1,because they can be
readIly installed,account for about 27%of achievable potential In 2014.These controls
remain significant contributors to cumulative potential,with 2.5 mIllion therms or 19%of
potential in 207?.
•Boiler ipr Citing ,i?ei.ure’,Including maintenance,hot water reset,and efficient
circulation,together can provide 4.3 million therms or about 29%of achievable potential in
2022.
•Equipment tipq’*dc:.for furnaces,boilers,and unit heaters equal 2.0 million therms,
or Th-Vc of 2022 achievable potential.
•Foodservice equipment has an achievable potential by 202?of 1.6 million therms,or 17%
of achievable potential.
www.enernoc.com
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 17
CONTENTS
Introduction 1
Background 1
Report Organization 1
Definitions of Potential 1
Abbreviations and Acronyn 3
2 Analysis Approach and Data Development 2-1
Introduction 2-1
L0adMAP Model 2-2
Market Characterization 2-3
Baseline Forecast 2-6
Conservation Measure Analysis 2-7
Conservation Potential 2-10
Data Development 2-11
Data Sources 2-11
Data Application 2-13
3 Market Characterization and Market Profiles 3-1
Residential Sector 3-3
Commercial and Industrial Sector 3-5
4 Baseline Forecast 4-1
Residential Sector +1
Commercial and Industrial Sector 43
System wfde Baseline Forecast 46
5 Conservation Potential 5-1
Residential Sector 5-4
Residential Potential by Housing Type and State 5-b
Residential Potential by End Use,Technology and Measure Type 5 8
Commercial and Industrial Sector Potential 5-11
C&T Potential by Segment and State 5-13
PotentIal by End Use,Technology,and Measure Type 5-14
G Ia Energy Pa-tners ,vii
An EneiNOC Company
18 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 19
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure ES-i Overview of Analysis Approach v
Figure ES -2 Annual Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use and State,201.0 viii
Figure ES 3 C&I End Use Intensities,2010
Figure ES-4 Residential Baseline Forecast by End Use xl
Figure ES-5 Commercial and Industrial Baseline Forecast by End Use xii
Figure ES-6 Baseline Forecast Summary (MWh)xii
Figure ES-7 CumulatIve Achievable Conservation Potential Savings by Sector xlv
Figure ES-8 Summary of Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings xv
Rgure ES 9 ConservatIon Potential Energy Forecasts (1000 therm)xvi
Figure 2-1 Overview of Analysis Approach 2-2
Figure 2-2 LoadMAP Analysis Framework 2-3
Figure 2-3 Approach for Measure Assessment 2-7
Figure 2-4 Avoided Costs of Energy Forecast 2-18
Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Gas Use,2010 (percentage of sales)3-1
Figure 3-2 Residential Gas Use by End Use,Average Therms/Household and Percentage of Sales,
2010 3-4
Figure 3-3 Annual Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use and State,2010 3-5
Figure 3-4 C&1 End Use IntensIties,2010 3-7
Figure 4-1 Residential Baseline Forecast by End Use 4-1
Figure 4-2 Residential Baseline Use per Household by End Use 4-3
Figure 4-3 Commercial and Industrial Baseline Forecast by End Use 4-4
Figure 4-4 Baseline Forecast Summary,by Sector 4-6
Figure 4-5 Baseline Forecast Summary,By State 4-7
Figure 5-1.Cumulative Achievable Conservation Potential Savings by Sector 5-2
Figure 5-2 Summary of Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings 5-3
Figure 5-3 ConservatIon Potential Energy Forecasts (1000 therm)5-4
Figure 5-4 Residential Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings 5-5
Figure 5-5 Residential Conservation Potential Forecast 5-6
Figure 5-6 C&I Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings 5-12
Figure 5-1 C&I Energy Efficiency Potential Forecast 5-12
Gcb&Eneq -rr-ers
An EnerNOC Company
20 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 21
LIST OF TABLES
Table ES-i 2010 Gas Sales by State and Sector vi
Table ES-2 Residential Sector Gas Usage and Intensity by State and Segment Type vii
Table 6-3 C&[Sector Gas Usage and Intensity by State and Segment,2010 lx
Table 6-4 Baseline Forecast Summary (1000 therm)xi
Table ES-S Cumulative Achievable Conservation Potential by State and by Sector xlii
Table ES-6 Summary of Cumulative Achievable,Economic,and Technical Conservation Potential xv
Table 1-i Explanation ofAbbreviations and Acronyms 3
Table 2-1 Overview of Segmentation Scheme for Potentials Modeling 2-4
Table 22 Residential End Uses and Technologies 2 4
Table 2-3 Commercial &Industrial End Uses and Technologies 2-5
Table 2-4 Sample Equipment Measures for Water Heaters -Single Family I-tome (WA)2-8
Table 2-5 Sample Non-Equipment Measures —Single Family I-tome (WA),Existing 2-9
Table 2-6 Data Applied for the Market Profiles 2-14
Table 27 Data Needs for the Baseline Forecast and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP 2-15
Table 2 8 Residential Gas Equipment Standards (Northern)216
Table 2-9 Commercial and Industrial Gas Equipment Standards 216
Table 2-10 Data Needs for the Measure Characterlstks in LoadMAP 217
Table 3-1 2010 Gas Sales by State and Sector 3-2
Table 3-2 Residential Sector Gas Usage and Intensity by State and Segment Type 3-3
Table 3-3 Market Profile for the Residential Sector 3-4
Table 3-4 C&I Sector Gas Usage and Intensity by State and Segment,2010 3-6
Table 3-5 Commercial Sector Composite Market Profile,2010 37
Table 4-1 Residential Baseline Forecast by End Use (1000 therm)4-1
Table 4-2 Residential Baseline Forecast by End Use and Technology (1000 therm)4-2
Table 4-3 Commercial Natural Gas Consumption by End Use (1000-therm)4-4
Table 4-4 C&I Baseline Natural Gas Forecast by End Use and Technology (MWh)1-5
Table 4-5 Baseline Forecast Summary (1000 therm)4-6
Table 4-6 Baseline Forecast Summary,by State (1000-therm)4-7
Table 5-1 Cumulative Achievable Conservation Potential by State and by Sector 5-1
Table 5-2 Summary of Cumulative Achievable,Economic,and Technical Conservation Potential5-3
Table 5-3 Residential Sector Cumulative Conservation Potential Summary 5-5
Table 5-4 Residential Cumulative Achievable Potential by Housing Type,Selected Years 5-6
Table 5-5 Residential Cumulative Achievable Potential by State,Selected Years 5-7
Table 5-Residential Cumulative Potential Summary by State,2022 5-8
Table 5-/Residential Cumulative Savings by End Use and Potential lype (1000-therm)5-9
Table 5-8 Residential Cumulative Achievable PotentIal,Equipment Measures (1000 thm)5-9
Table 5-9 ResidentIal Cumulative Achievable Potential,Non-equip,Measures (1000 thm)5-10
Table 5-10 C&T Sector Cumulative Conservation Potential Summary 5-11
Table 5-il -C&I Cumulative Achievable Potential by Sector,Selected Years 5-13
Global Erey Pa-tners
Ar rerNQC Ccmpany
22 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Av:sta bts Gas Consrvaon Potart&Ass smt Exccutvc Srnmary
Table 5-12 C&1 Cumulative Achievable Potential by State,Selected Years 5-13
Table 5-13 C&t Cumulative Potential Summary by Sector and State,2022 5-14
Table 5-14 C&I Cumulative Potential by End Use and Potential Type (1000 therm)5-15
Table 5-15 C&I Cumulative Achievable Potential,Equipment Measures (1000 thm)5-15
Table 5-16 C&1 Cumulative Achievable Potential,Non-equip.Measures (1000 thm)5-16
www.enernoc.com
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 23
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Background
Avista Utilities (Avista)has contracted with Global Energy Partners (Global)to conduct aconservationpotentialassessment(CPA)to quantify the amount,the timing,and the cost ofnaturalgasenergyconservationresourcesavailablewithintheAvistaserviceterritory.ThepurposeofthisstudyIstoestablishcost-effective and achievable energy conservation resourcesforthe2013—2032 perIod to support development of Avlsta’s 201.3 gas Integrated Resource Plan(IRP).
Key objectives for the study include:
•Determine the conservation potential for natural gas for Washington,Idaho,and Oregon,fortheperiod2013—2032,based on Avista’s service territory characteristics.
•Develop energy conservation measure (ECM)data sets for each market sector and eachappropriatemarketsegment.
•Categorize the potential by market sector,segment,building type,and ECM.
•Using parameters provided by Avista,calculate the Total Resource Cost (TRC),and measurelevelizedcostoftheECMs.
•Provide supply curves of achievable potential.
Report Organization
This report contains the following chapters:
1.Introduction
2.Analysis Approach and Data Development
3.Market Assessment and Market Profiles
4.BaselIne Forecast
5.ConservatIon Potential
Definitions of Potential
In this study,the conservation potential estimates represent gross savIngs developed Into threetypesofpotential:technical potential,economic potential,and achievable potential.Technicalandeconomicpotentialareboththeoreticallimitstoefficiencysavings.Achievable potential
embodies a set of assumptions about the decisions consumers make regarding the efficiency oftheequipmenttheypurchase,the maintenance activities they undertake,the controls they useforenergy-consuming equipment,and the elements of building construction.These levels aredescribedbelow.
Technical potential Is defined as the theoretical upper limit of conservation potential.Itassumesthatcustomersadoptallfeasiblemeasuresregardlessofcost.At the time of equipmentfailure,customers replace equipment with the most efficient option available.In new
Saainps in ross terms nsteac of’net’rem-a rnsans that the seIine fcrecasr dries not ‘cdc nat.inl,efficiency,Inotrir,crJs tie liasehrw .,ssuri-e-et etw .rfficiern-y eek remain tanci as te are tcxlay hi,ur ‘,Idr,true e,5 ri ,,s,-swherefriturecodesandstandardsyereerrt’re books bets-a ‘ksrernber 2011.e theeffcts of the u-Jomrr urr-ace and sate
heater ste-ards
req Partners 1-1AnEreNOCCompany
24 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avst Jtt,es Ga5 Corrvaton Ptnta Asm Irtroducton
construction,customers and developers also choose the most efficient equipment option.
Examples of measures that make up technical potential in the residential sector include:
•High efficiency furnaces and boilers
•High efficiency water heaters
•High efficiency clothes dryers
Technical potentiai also assumes the adoption of every availabie non equipment measure,where
applicable.For example,it includes Installation of high-efficiency windows in all new construction
opportunities and furnace maintenance in all existing buildings with furnace systems.The retrofit
measures are phased in over a number of years,which Is longer for highercost measures.
Economic pitentit represents the adoption of all cost•effective conservation measures.In
this analysis,the TRC test,which compares lifetime energy and capacity benefits to the
incremental cost of the measure,is applied.Economic potential assumes that customers \urchase
the most cost-effective option at the time of equipment failure and also adopt every other cost-
effective and applicable measure.
Achjevable potential takes into account market maturity,customer preferences for energy
efficient technologies,and expected program participation.Achievable potential establishes a
realistic target for the conservation savings that a utility can hope to achieve through its
programs.It is determined by applying a series of annual factors to the economic potential for
each ECM.These factors represent the ramp rates at which technologies will penetrate the
market and were based upon the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Sixth Plan (NWPCC)
ramp rates.Although Avista Is not required to use the Sixth Plan ramp rates br its gas CPA,the
project team chose to use those ramp rates for consistency with the Avista 2011 electricity CPA.
Also,these ramp rates have been widely vetted and are accepted by regional stakeholders.
Details regarding the ramp rate development appear in Appendix E.
-2 www.enernoc.com
2012 AvI5TA NATURAL GAS IRP II 25
Avsta Ut]ties Gsa Doiiaervator Pctetial Asseasnent
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Throughout the report make reference to several abbreviations and acronyms.Table 1-1 shows
the abbreviation or acronym,along with what it stands fbr.
Table 1-1 Explanation ofAbbreviations andAcronyms
Acronym Explanation
Americar Commun’ty Srvey
Glcba:Er,erçy sa’Lners
Ar FNQ(Con’pa’iy
ACS
AEO Annual Energy Outook
B/C Ratio Benefit to Cost Ratio
BEST Global’s Building Energy Simulation “col
C&l C3mrrercla arc Incustrlal
CBSA Notl-west Enegy E’fTcie’cy Al lance Commercial Building Stock Assessment
CPA Conservation Potental Assessment
DEEM Global’s Datacase o Energy Efficiency %‘leasures
DEER Database for Energy-Efficient Resources
DSM Demand side management
EE Energy Efficiency
EIA Energy Information Administration
ESA Energy Efficiency a”d Security Act o’2007
EPACI Energy Policy Act of 2005
EPRI Eectrc cower ResearcI lr-,stitjte
EUEA Effic’ent Use o’EnergyAct
EJ Energy-use Index (energy use by end use)
HH Household
-937 Wasnlngtor-ltTative 937
Global’s Loac ManagementAnalysis and PlannInj’’tool
MAR MarketAcceptance Rate
NEEA No’tlwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
NWPCC Norti’west Power and Conservation Council
WT Regiona “ec’-nica.Forr,,
Sq.ft.______Sqae feet
TRC Iota Resource Cost
JEC Lln’t EriergyLonsiimp:ian
1-3
26 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK
CHAPTER 2
ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
To perform the conservation analysis,Global used a bottom-up analysis approach as shown in
Figure 2-1 and summarized below.
1.Met by phone with Avista staff to refine the objectives that were identified in the Avista RFP.
This resulted In a work plan for the study.
2.Performed a market characterization to describe sector-level natural gas use for the
residential,commercial,and industrial sectors for the base year,2010.This Included using
utility data and secondary data from sources such as the American Community Survey (ACS),
and the Energy Information Administration (EtA).
3.Utilized secondary sources IncludIng Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEAA)data and
market reports to understand how customers in the Avista service territory currently use gas.
Combining this information with the market characterization,we developed energy market
profiles that describe energy use by sector,segment,and end use for 2010.
4.Developed a baseline gas forecast by sector,segment,and end use for 2013 through 2032.
5.Identified and analyzed energy conservations measures appropriate for the Avista service
territory.
6.Estimated three levels of conservation potential,Technical,Economic,and Achievable.
The steps are described in further detail throughout the remainder of this chapter.
G;oba 2•1
Ar,E rNX Cr
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP U 27
Avista Utites Gas Corsorvation Potertt&Assess’rent
Figure 2-1 Overview ofAnalysisApproach
Analysis Approach arc Data Development
/Avistadata
Customersurveys
Sixth Plandata
S,.r,,nd.in,dt
/:
Prototypesand
anap
Forecast data
Avista data
/eeriana7
Secondary data
Program results
/‘ZvdatE7-
Secondary data
Kick-off Meeting
Establish objectives
I
Market segmentation
and characterization
I
Baseline Forecasting
Energy conservation
—measure data
Detailed Work Plan
tae-ear esergy
fuel,r1er’t
End jse forecastby
segment
LoadMAP Model
We used the Global Load Management Analysis and Planning tool (oadMAPT)to develop thebaselineforecast,as well as the estimates of conservation potential.Global developed L0adMAPin2007andhasuseditfortheEPRINationalPotentialStudyandnumerousutilityspecific
forecasting and potential studies.Built in Excel,the LoadMAP framework (see Figure 2-2)Is bothaccessibleandtransparentandhasthefollowingkeyfeatures,
•Develops a bottom-up forecast based on energy use by end use of major energy-consumingequipment.
•Embodies the basic principles of rigorous end use models (such as EPRI’s REEPS andCOMMEND)but in a more simplified,accessible form,
•Jncludes stock-accounting algorithms that treat oider,less efficient appliance/equipment
stock separately from newer,more efficient equipment.Lquipment is replaced according to
the measure life defined by the user.
•Balances the competing needs of simplicity and robustness by Incorporating Important
modeling detaIls related to equipment saturations,efficiencies,vintage,and the like,where
market data are available,and treats end uses separately to account for varying importanceandavailabilityofdataresources.
•Uses a simple logic for appiianc.e and equipment decisions.Isolates new onstructlon frontexistingequipmentandbuildingsandtreatspurchasedecisionsfornewconstructionandexistingbuildingsseparately.
2-2 •ernoc.com
Technical and rccnorric
pctentii treLs
Synthi/anaiis
Supply Irves
Scenarioanalyses
Custom analyses
Project report
28 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
t.vttta Uthtles Gsa ContcrvatonPo,lAssessrnortt AnaIyss App-ouch arid Data Dvalopmorrt
•Includes appliance and equipment models customized by end use.For example,the logic for
space heating is distinct from stoves and clothes dryers.
•Can accommodate various levels of segmentation.Analysis can be performed at the sector
level (e.g.,total residential)or for customized segments within sectors (e.g.,housing type or
income level).
Consistent with the segmentation scheme and the market profiles we describe below,the
LoadMAP model provides forecasts of baseline natural gas use by sector,segment,end use and
technology for existing and new buildings.It also provides forecasts of total natural gas use and
conservation savings assocIated with the three types of potential.’
Figure2-2 LoadMAPAnalysis Framework
Base-year Energy
Consumption
by technology
end use,segment
vintage &sector
Forecust Data
Market Characterization
Before assessing conservation potential,it is critical to develop a good understanding of where
Avista is today in terms of natural gas use and customer behavior.The purpose of the market
characterization is to develop market profiles that describe current natural gas use in terms of
sector,customer segment,and end use.The base year for this study is 2010 because that was
the most recent year for which utility sales data were available.
Segmentation for Modeling Purposes
The market assessment began by defining the market segments (building types,end uses,and
other dimensions)that are relevant for Avista.The segmentation scheme employed for this
project is presented In Table 2-1.
The rrorje mpte.trrr,did dk-dra’c typic tentri fri each end isa i.ar ntendrte
k-naI-enery aid peak demarc sains as caI:uIat as the cffrsrene zetween te value i the taselne orest an tse aIue
the pctentia fr,ieast Ic g.tech-ca pirteta )
Gobs Energy Partners 2-3
Sri ErrNOC Company
csiomersegmertatort
MarKet size
Equipmentsatwat
FutA shares
Technorogy siiaes
Vintage dlst’ibt4tiol
Urilterergy coriimton
Cdrcdert de’and
Energy-efficiency
analysts
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP N 29
Avata Uites Gas Corsoraton PtentaL Assasment An&jss AproacI’and Data Development
Table 2-1 Over,iew ofSegmentation Scheme forPotentialsModeling
Resdential (Sngle farrriy.Mu t farly,Mobfle
home)Drens’on 3 Bj’Jdrg type Commeca (Sra cor,rrercaI,Large commercial)
l’oustra(nofrthersegrnentatlo’)
Existrg a”d new co’strctor (for retder’tlaI ardDrenson4Vintagecorvverclaisectors)
Space ‘eatlng,water heatmmg,app’,ces,foocDmenson5Endusespeparatio—,etc.(as approprate by sector)
Appilarces/enc JSeS and TecnoIogies such as space reating equipment,D’mens’on 6 technologies ovens,process equipment,etc.
Eoipment e’fciercy leves for Basee and hgher-ef9clency ot’unsasDrenson7newpurcasesapproprmateforeachtec”’nology
For the residential sector,the CPA used the following segmentation.
•irgIe•famiJy homee.This segment includes slngle4ami)y detached homes,townhouses,
and dupiexes or row houses.
•Multi-family homes.The multi-family segment includes apartments or condos In buildings
with more than two units.
•Mobile homes.This segment includes mobile homes and manufactured homes.
In addition to segmentation by housing type,we Identified the set of end uses and technologies
that are appropriate for Avlsta.These are shown in Table 2 2.
Table 2-2 Residential End Uses and Technologies
End use Technology
Space -eatng Cu.flace
Space -leat’ng Boiler
Space -ieat’ng Otier Heating
Water f-eating -Wate Heate’
Appliances Clotles D’yer
Appliances -Stove/Oven
Mlscellaneos °oo/Spa -‘eater
Mlscellaneo,.s Misel anecJs
D’menson 2 Geograpic Region
,cornmerclal,indist’a’
Washngton,cao,Oregon
24 ww:enrflm
30 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avista LJI;tios (as Cocrvaton PotanaI Asscasrnnt -AnayssAproach aid Data Devalopment
For the commercial sector,we used rate classes to Identify the segments.
•Small Commercial.This segment includes commercial buildings under rate class 101 in
Washington and Idaho,and 420 in Oregon.
•Large Commercial.This segment includes commercial buildings under rate classes 111,
112,121,122,and 132 in Washington and Idaho,and 424 in Oregon.
No further segmentation was applied to the industrial sector.
In addition to segmentation by rate class,we identified the set of commercial and industrial end
uses and technologies that are appropriate for Avista’s service territory,as shown In Table 2-3.
With the segmentation scheme defined,we then performed a high-level market characterization
of natural gas sales in the base year to allocate sales to each customer segment.We used
various data sources to Identify the annual sales in each customer segment,as well as the
number of customers for residential segments,and the square footage for the commercial and
industrial segments.This information provided control totals (energy use and customers
counts/square footage totals)for calibrating the LoadMAP model to known data for the base-
year.
Table 2-3 Commercial &IndustrialEnd Uses and Technologies
End Use Technology
Space I4eatfrrg Furrace
Space Heating Boiler
Space Ieatfrg Other Heating
Water Heatfr.g Water Heater
Food Preparation
Fooc Preparation Oven
Fooc Preparation BroIer
Fooc Preparation rddte
Food Preparation Range
Food Preparation Stearrer
Process Process Heatirg
Process Process Coaling
Process Other ‘rocess
/sceareors Poc/Spa heate
M’s:e aneoLs Misce laneous
Global Energy Partners 25
An ErerNOC
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 31
Avsta ub:t;es Gas Consarvation Pctanti&Assassrnent AnaIss Approach arc Data DIopmont
MarketProfiles
The next step was to develop market profiles for each sector,customer segment,end use,andtechnology.A market profile includes the following elements:
•Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment.For the
residential sector,it is number of households.In the commercial and IndustrIal sector,it Is
floor space measured in square feet,
•Saturations define the fraction of buildings with the natural gas technologies.(e.g.,homes
with natural gas water heating,commercial floor space wIth natural gas space heating,etc.).
•UEC (mnit energy consumption)or EU!(energy’use index)describes the amount of
natural gas consumed in 2010 by a specific technology In buildings that have the technology.
We use (JEcs expressed In therms/household for the resIdential sector,and EUIs expressed
in therms/square foot for the commercial and Industrial sectors.
a Tnt-ersity for the residential sector represents the average use for the technology across allhomesIn2010.It Is computed as the product of the saturation and the UEC and is definedastherms/household.For the commercial and industrial sectors,intensity,computed as the
product of the saturation and the EUI,represents the average use for the technology across
all floor space In 2010.
a Usage Is the annual gas use by a technology/end use in the segment.It Is the product of
the market size and Intensity and Is quantified in 1000 therm.
The market assessment results and the market profiles are presented In Chapter 3.
Baseline Foreca
The next step was to develop the baseline forecast of annual natural gas use for 2010 through
2032 by customer segment and end use wIthout new utility programs or naturally occurring
efficiency scenario.The end-use forecast does inciude the relatively certain Impacts of codes and
standards that will unfold over the study timeframe.All such mandates that were defined as ofJanuary2011areIncludedInthebaseline.The baseline forecast Is the foundation for theanalysisofsavingsfromfutureEEeffortsaswellasthemetricagainstwhichpotentialsavings
are measured.
Inputs to the baseline forecast Include:
a Current economic growth forecasts (i.e.,customer growth,income growth),provided byAvista
a Natural gas price forecasts,provided by Avista
•Trends in fuel shares and equipment saturations,developed by project team
•Existing and approved changes to building codes and equipment standards
•Avista’s Internally developed forecasts for natural gas sales
We present the results of the baseline forecast development in Chapter 4.
2-6 www.enernoc.com
32 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Prn Ases1t pr-:hr1d DtDevorrnent
Conservation Measure Analysis
This section descrl,es the framework used to assess the savings,costs,and other attrbutes of
energy conservation measures.These characteristics form the basis for measure-level cost-
effectiveness analyses as well as for determining measure-level savings.For all measures,Global
assembled information to reflect equipment performance,incremental costs,and equipment
lifetimes,We used this information,along with Avlsta’s avoIded costs,In the economic screen to
determine economically feasIble measures.flgure 2-3 outlines the framework for measure
analysis.
Ffguse 2-3 Appmadi forMeasumAssessment
—rn”r.
-I I -
-,cra iitt1.5
•[1
—-r-’Sir’:-1-Sa-e ‘pac -
Final Measure
____________________________
Cisaracterizatiort
The framework for assessing savings,costs,aid other atirbutes of energy conservation
measures involves identifying the list of conservation measures to include hi the analysis,
determining thefr applicability to each market sector and segment,fully characterizing each
measure,and performing cost-effectiveness screening.Potential measures include the
replacement of a unit that has failed or is at the end of its useful life with an efficient unit,
retrofit/early replacement of equipment,irrprovernents to the building envelope,the applIcation
of controls to optimize energy use,and other actions resulting hi irrproved energy efficiency.
We complied a robust list of conservation measures for each customer sector,&awing Avista’s
existing progans,as well as a variety of secondary sources.This universal list of energy
conservation measures covers all major types of end-use equipment,as well as devices and
actions to reduce energy consumption.If considered today,some of these measures would not
pass the economic screens initially,but may pass in future years as a result of lower projected
equipment costs or higher avoided costs.
The selected measures can be categorized into types,equipment measures and non-equipment
measures,accordIng to the LoadMAP taxonomy:
•Equipment meaures,or efficient energy-consuming equipment,save energy by providing
the same service with a lower energy requrement.For equipment measures,many efficiency
levels are available for a specific technology that range from the baseline unit (often
determined by code or standard)up to the most efficient prathict conTnercially available.For
Cost Saturation
I Lrietrne_J I Applicability
ECONOMIC SCREEN
GI bl Err1i
C-.T Efl’:r’-.CC
2O12AVISTANATIJRALGASIRP II 33
Avsa )ts Gas Cnaorvaton FoQnta Assessment Analyss Appoach anc Data Development
instance,in the case of residential furnaces,this list begins with the federal standard energyfactor(EF)0.78 unit and spans a broad spectrum of efficiency,with the highest efficiencylevelrepresentedbyanEF0.96 unit.
Non-equipment rnemwres save energy by reducing the need for delivered energy but donotInvolvereplacementorpurchaseofmajorend-use equipment (such as a furnace orwaterheater).An example would be a programmable thermostat that is pre-set to reduce
the load on a furnace or boiler when the building Is unoccupied.Non-equipment measures
fall into one of the following categorIes:
•Building shell (windows,insulation,roofing material)
•Equipment controls (thermostat,occupancy sensors)
•Equipment maintenance (cleanIng filters,changing setpolnts)
•Whole building design (natural ventilation,ENERGY STAR home)
•Commissioning and retrocommlssloning
Global developed a preliminary list of energy conservation measures that Included gas measures
In Avista’s existing DSM programs,as well as other measures that are typically Included In gasutilityconservationprograms.The final list Included In the study,which reflects feedback and
additions from Avlsta,Is presented In Appendices B,C,and I)for the residential,commercial,andIndustrialsectorsrespectively.
Once we assembled the list of ECM5,the project team assessed their energy-saving
characteristics.For each measure,we developed estimates of incremental cost,service life,andotherperformancefactors,drawing upon data from Avlsta and from secondary sources.TheprojectteamalsouseddatafromGlobal’s database of measure characteristics and simulation
modeling.Following the measure characterization,we performed an economic screening of eachmeasure,which serves as the basis for developing the economic potential.
Representative Measure Data Inputs
To provide an example of the measure data,Table 2 4 and Table 25 present samples of thedetaileddatainputsbehindequipmentandnon-equipment measures,respectively,for the case
of residential water heaters In single-family homes in Washington.Table 2-4 dIsplays the various
efficiency levels available as equipment measures,as well as the corresponding useful life,
energy usage,and cost estimates.The columns labeled On Market and Off Market reflect
equipment availability due to codes and standards or the entry of new products to the market.
FF0.67 15 $76C :35,2 2013 2032
EF 0.70 —15 $803 .29.5 2313 2032
F .86 (Coidersfrg)15 $2,0o 105.3 2013 2032
SoIa 15 $5,003 435 2013 2032
Table 2-4 Sample Equipment Measures for Water Heaters —Single Family Home (WA)
EF 0.62
EF ‘J.&4
$48c :45.9 2013 2032
SJ5C 141.6 2313 2032
2-8 —www.enamnocom
34 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avsta UbItIes Gsa C 5erv ?tertlaI Asscsmnt Anaiya Approach and Data DcveIornent
Table 2-5 lIsts some of the non-equipment measures affectIng an existing single-family home In
Washington with a gas water heater.These measures are also evaluated for cost effectiveness
based on the lifetime benefits relative to the cost of the measure.The total savings are
calculated for each year of the model and depend on the base year saturation of the measure,
the applicability and feaslbility of the measure,and the savings as a percentage of the relevant
energy end uses.
Water Heating 53%
Screening Measures for Cost-Effectiveness
Only measures that are cost-effective are included in economic and achievable potential.
Therefore,for each individual measure,LoadMAP performs an economic screen.This study uses
the total resource cost (TRC)test that compares the lifetime benefits (both energy and peak
demand)of each applicable measure with Its Installed cost,which includes material,labor,and
administration of a delivery mechanism,such as an energy efficiency program.The lifetime
benefits are calculated by multiplying the annual energy and demand savings for each measure
by all appropriate avoided costs for each year,and discountIng the dollar savings to the present
value equivalent.The analysis uses each measure’s values for savings,costs,and lifetimes that
were developed as part of the measure characterization process described above.For economic
screening of measures,Incentives are not Included because they represent a simple transfer
from one party to another,but have no effect on the overall measure cost.
The LoadMAP model performs this screening dynamically,taking into account changing savings
and cost data over time.Thug,some measures pass the economic screen for some —but not all
—of the years in the forecast.
It is important to note the following about the economic screen:
•The economic evaluation of every measure In the screen is conducted relative to a baseline
condition.F-or Instance,In order to determine the savings potential of a measure,
consumption in therms with the measure applied must be compared to the consumption n
therms of a baseline condition
‘“e aopiabiay ‘atcr takre into accunt a+eiw he ‘easre app be It a rtc.artujldin type and .‘retfr Is feaciNe
ireaI be rrwasu’e ftr innane,attc fans a-e nI aplIabe Ic t---s wi±rut atns and in sce ncrnec w atts.t nay c be
‘easole to retail at attc fn oauae c-’iacL ofspace.
-ioe t”a ruranor-e,ei rfl cted !J201 charipe ovet-e as rmrn en are ad,te
La Energy Pap’ers 2-9
An EnerNOC Company
Table 2-5 Sample Non-Equipment Measures —Sin ie Family Home (WA),Existing
Water-Heating -Faicet
Aerators 90%25 $24 3.70%
Water-Heating Wate Heating tow 42%80%10 $96 17.10%c ow Showerheads
Water Heating Water Heating -
—17%75%—13 $10 2.00%r-rsuatiori
Water-Heating Wate Heating-ank 54%75%10 $15 9.10%3lanket/irisuiaton
Water-Heating Water-Heating-17%75%5 $4o 9.10%Thermostat Setback
—----—-—--—,----——----.-——--—-----
Water Heating Water Heating -9rner 17%40%IC $194 8.00%
Water Heating Water Heating-Hot 5%50%5 $35 8.75%Water Saver
2012 AvI5TA NATURAL GAS IRP II 35
Avsta Uiit5es Gas Cororvaton Potonta Asscssmont Ana’ysis Approach an Data DaeIopmant
a The economic screening was conducted only for measures that are applicable to eachbuildingtypeandvintage;thus if a measure is deemed to be irrelevant to a particular
building type and vintage,It Is excluded from the respectIve economic screen.
If the measure passes the screen (has a benefit-to-cost (B/C)ratio greater than or equal to 1.0),
the measure is included in economic potentIal.Otherwise,It Is screened out for that year.IfmultipleequipmentmeasureshaveB/C ratios greater than or equal to 1.0,the most efficient
technology with a B/C ration above 1.0 Is selected by the economic screen.
Additional information on avoided costs appears later In this chapter,and detailed information onthemeasureanalysisispresentedinAppendicesB,C,and D for the residential,commercial,andIndustrialsectorsrespectively.
Conservation Potential
The approach we used for this study adheres to the approaches and conventions outlined In theNationalActionPlanforEnergy-Efficiency (NAPEE)Guide for Conducting Potential Studies(November 2007).The NAPEE Guide represents the most credible and comprehensive Industry
practice for specifying energy-efficiency potential.Specifically,three types of potentials were
developed as part of this study:
a Technka!potenial is a theoretical construct that assumes the highest efficiency measures
that are technically feasible to Install are adopted by customers,regardless of cost or
customer preferences.Thus,determining the technical potential is relatively straightforward.LoadMAP “chooses”the most efficient equipment options for each technology at the time of
equipment replacement.In addition,it installs all relevant non-equipment measures for eachtechnologytocalculatesavings.
For example,for water heating,as shown In Table 2-4,the most efficient option Is solar
water heating.The multiple non-equipment measures shown in Table 2-5 are then applied totheenergyusedbythesolarwaterheatermtofurtherreducewaterheatingenergyuse.
LoadMAP applies the savings due to the non-equipment measures one-by-one to avoiddoublecountingofsavings.The measures are evaluated in order of their B/C ratio,with themeasurewiththehighestB/C ratio applIed first.Each time a measure Is applied,the baselineenergyusefortheenduseIsreducedandthepercentagesavingsforthenextmeasureisappliedtotherevised(lower)usage.
•Economic potential results from the purchase of the most efficient cost-effective option
available for a given equipment or non-equipment measure as determined In the cost-effectiveness Screening process described above.As with technical potential,economic
potential Is a phased-In approach.Economic potential Is still a hypothetical upper-boundary
of savings potential as it represents only measures that are economic but does not yet
consider customer acceptance and other factors.
•Achievable potential defines the range of savings that Is very likely to occur.It accounts
for customers’awareness of efficiency options,any barriers to customer adoption,limits toprogramdesign,and other factors that Influence the rate at which conservation measures
penetrate the market,
The calculation of technical and economic potential is straightforward as desuibed above,To
develop estimates for achievable potential,we specify adoption rates for each measure.For
Avista,we began with the ramp rates specified in the Sixth Plan conservation workbooks.
Although Avista is not required to use the Sixth Plan ramp rates for Its gas CPA,the project teamchosetousethoserampratesforconsistencywiththeAvlsta2011electrkltyCPA.Also,these
ramp rates have been widely vetted and are accepted by regional stakeholder.Details regarding
the ramp rate development appear in Appendix E.Results of all the potentlais analysis are
presented in Chapter 5.
I.atcnal Ar F’n ‘Eficie’y Na”e Enc cv Vsyo fe,2025 Deefe&g ao-Change
-rnoc.com
36 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avst UtItie5 Gas Conservatioj,P,LsI Asasssment Anayss Approach arid Data Dasclornont
Data Development
This section begins with a description of the data sources used in this study,followed by a
discussion of how these sources were applied.
Data Sources
The data sources are organized into the following categories:
•Utility-provided data
•Energy conservation measure data
•Global Energy Partners’databases and analysis tools
•Other secondary data and reports
Utility-provided Data
In order to enable the project team to appropriately characterize the market,Avista provide the
following:
•UtilIty 2010 bIlling data —customers,usage,revenue
•Number of customers and gas sales by sector (resIdentIal,commercial,industrIal)
•Energy and peak demand forecasts,at the sector level
•Forecasts of customer growth,persons per household,and income
•Price forecast
•Avoided costs forecast
•Discount rate
•Escalation rate
•Loss factors
•Description of existing conservation and demand side management programs and results
from these programs
•Program admInistratIon expenses
•Recent conservation potential studies
Energy Conservation Measure Data
Several sources of data were used to characterIze the energy conservation measures.
•NorthwestPowerandConservation Council Sixth Plan Corise,vrtin upp/y Cu,ve
Workbooks,2010.To develop its Power Plan,the Council used workbooks with detailed
Information about measures,available at
http.//www.nwcounii.orp/enerpy/oowerIan/6/siipulycurves,defauIt.him.Although the Plan
focuses on electricity and not gas conservation measures,it does provide useful information
for a gas CPA,such as cost and savings estimates for weatherization measures.
•eg’nt’iI Technical Forum Deemed Measures.The NWPCC Regional Technical Forum
maintains databases of deemed measure savings data,available at
httD:,/www.nwcouncii.oraienerpv/rtfmeasureslDefault.asp .Although the Regional
Technical Forum focuses on electricity and riot gas conservation measures,It does provide
useful information for a gas CPA,such as cost and savings estimates for weatheriation
measures.
•Database for Etwigy Efficient Resources ‘DFER;The California Energy Commission
and California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)sponsor this database,which Is designed to
G!obS Errerriy ratr es 2-11
4rr ErierNOC Cornpari
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 37
Avsta Jbifts Gs Corrator Potrt&sssrn An&ys5 Approach ar 1)ata Deoprnc.rt
provide well-documented estimates of energy and peak demand savings values,measurecosts,and effective useful life (EUL)for the state of California.
Other cost data sources
RS Means Facilities Maintenance and Repair Cost Data
RS Means Mechanical Construction Costs
RS Means Building Construction Cost Data
USGBC —LEED New Construction &Major Renovation (2008)
RS Means Green Buildings Project Planning &Cost Estimating Second Edition (2008)
Grainger Catalog Volume 398,(2007-2008)
ETA Technology Forecast Updates —Residential and Commercial BuildingTechnologies—Reference Case,Navigant Consulting
Global Energy Partners Databases,Analysis Tools,and Reports
Global maintains several databases and modeling tools that we use for forecasting and potential
studies.
•Energy Market Profiles Database,Since the late 1990s,Global staff has maintained a
database of end-use profiles by sector,customer segment and region for electricity and
natural gas.The database contains market size,fuel shares/saturations,UEC5/EUI5,Intensities,and total sales.
•Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST).BEST is a derivative of the DOE 2.2 building
simulation model,used to estimate base-year UECs and EUIs,as well as measure savings fortheHVAC-related measures.
•Database of Energy Efficiency Measures DEEM).Global maintains a database ofenergyefficiencymeasuresforresidential,commercial,and Industrial segments across theU.S.This is analogous to the DEER database developed for California.Global updates thedatabaseonaregularbasisasItconductsnewconservatIonpotentIalstudies.
•EriergyShape Database.This database contains end-use load shapes for residential andcommercialsegmentsfornineregionsIntheU.S.For the non HVAC end uses,we used the
EnergyShape data to develop the peak factors that represent the fraction of annual energyusethatoccursduringthepeakhour.The peak factors were calibrated to available utilitydataforthesystempeak.The final peak factors were applied to annual energy savings tocalculatethepeak-demand savings from energy conservation measures.
•Recent Studies.Global has conducted numerous studies of conservation potential in thelastfIveyears.We checked our input assumptions and analysis results against the resultsfromtheseotherstudieswhichIncludeAmerenUE,Los Angeles Department of Water and
Power,Consolidated Edison of New York,State of New Mexico,and Tennessee Valley
Authority.In addition,we used the Information about impacts of building codes andappliancestandardsfromarecentreportfortheInstituteforEnergyEffkieiicy.
OtherSeconda,y Data andReports
F-inally,a variety of secondary data sources and reports were used for this study.‘I he mainsourcesareIdentifiedbelow.
•U.S.Census Data:
The American Community Survey (ACS)is an ongoing survey that provides data
every year on household characteristics.http:/’www.census.govacswww,
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38 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avista Liblitics Gaa Co rvabon Potantial Asaessment Anayaa Approach and Data Development
Census Bureau’s Economic Census,which Is conducted every five years,collects
detads on business characteristics.We used the 2007 version.
http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/
•Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance,Single-Family Residential Existing
Construction Stock Assessment,Market Research Report,E07-179 (10/2007),
http://neea.org/research/reportdetail.aspx?ID=194
•Northwest Energy EfFkiricy Alliance Assess rnent ofMultifamily Building Stock in
the Pacific Northwest,Market Research Report,05-146,August,2005.
http://neea.org/research/reports/146.pdf
•North west Energy Etfk iency Alliance.Lang-Term Northwest Residential Ugh tipg
Tracking and Monitoring Study,Market Research Report,11-228,August,2011.
http://neea.org/research/reports/Ell 231_Comblnedv2.pdf
•North west Energy Efficiency Alliance,Multifamily Residential New Cnstruction
characteristics and practices Study,MarketResearch Report,07-173,June,2007.
http://neea.org/research/reports/07%20173.pdf
•Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance,2009 Northwest Commercial Building Stock
Assessment (10-211),http://neea.org/research/reportdetall.aspx’ID=546.
•California State wide Surveys.The Residential Appliance Saturation Survey (RASS)and
the Commercial End Use Survey (CEUS)are comprehensive market research studies
conducted by the California Energy Commission.These databases provide a wealth of
Information on appliance use in homes and businesses.RASS is based on Information from
almost 25,000 homes and CEUS is based on information from a stratified random sample of
almost 3,000 businesses in California.
•Annual Energy Outlook.The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO),conducted each year by the
U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),presents yearly projections and analysis of
energy topics.For this study,we used data from the 2011 AFO.
•Electric Power Research Institute —Assessment of Achievable Pfentiai from
Energy Etfi’;iency and Demand Response Programs in the LLS,also known as the
EPRI National Potential Study (2008).In 2008,Global conducted an assessment of the
national potential for energy efficIency,with estimates derived for the four DOE regions
(including the West region that includes Avista).
•EPRI End-Use Models REEPS and COMMEND).These models provide the elasticities we
apply to retail gas prices,household Income,home size and heating and cooling.
Data Application
We now discuss how the data sources described above were used for each step of the study.
Data Application for Market Characterization
To construct the high level market characterization of gas use and households/floor space for the
residential,commercial,and industrial sectors,we applied sales data from Avista,the U.S.
Census ACS,the NWPCC Sixth Plan,NEEA market characterization reports,and the Annual
Energy Outlook.
To segment the residential customers into the three segments,we determined the housing type
breakdown based on the U.S.Census ACS for and applied It to the number of customers reported
in the 2010 Avlsta billing data.We then estimated the usage per household to calibrate total
residential use for each state to the Avista sales data control totals.For commercial and
Industrial customers,we used the Sixth Plan,the NEFA CBSA,and our Energy Market Profiles to
develop estimates of energy Intensity.We then Inferred the floor stock In square footage.As
with the residential sector,total sales for C&I customers were calibrated to match to the Avista
sales data control totals for each state.
Global tner Partners 2-13
An E ‘4’D(Co.pa’r
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 39
Avista Ubhtes Gas Corsorvahon Potental Assessment Anatvss Aproch ar Date Dc’eIoprnont
Data Appflcatlon for Ma,*et Profiles
To develop the market profiles for each segment,we used the following general approach:
1.Developed control totals for each segment as described above.These include market
size,segment-level annual gas use,and annual intensity.
2.Used the Sixth Plan and NEEA studies to incorporate Information on existing appliance
and equipment saturations,appliance and equipment characteristics,building
characteristics,customer behavior,operating characteristics,and energy-efficiency
actions already taken.
3.Compared and cross-checked wIth secondary data sources,Energy Market Profiles,and
other sources.
4.Ensured calibration to controi totals for annual gas sales in each segment.
5.Worked with Avista staff to vet the data against their knowledge and experience.
The specific data elements for the market profiles,together with the key data sources,areshowninTable26.
Base-year resderitia dwellings and
C&I ‘loor space
•utlirty billing data
•Ar’ierican Comrrur’ty S.rvey
•NWPCC Sixth Plan
•NEEA Regonai Surveys
•Energy Market Pro’iles
Table 2-6 DataAppliedfor the Market Profiles
Market sze
Model Inputs Description Key Sources
•Litility data
Residenfa :Annua energy ase •NWCC Sixth Plan
Ancue ritensty (Wh/hous&’old)•NEEA CBSA
C&:An—ua energy use (kWh/sq ftl •Energy Market Pr o9les
.Prevous stdles
Fraction of dwergs with an •NWPCC Sixth Planappfance/technology
•NEEA resloenta and ccrrrerciaAppliance/equipment
market studiessaturatorsPercentageofC&floor space with
•Energy Market Pro9leseq..ipment/techro ogy
•NWPCC Sixth Plan and RF datal.ED:Annal gas use for a technology •1-VAC uses:BESt sinIatiris usrigindwe:rigs that have the technology prototypes deveoped fo AvistaUEC/E for each erd-
•Non l-4VAC uses:ergneering ana’ysisusetechroogyELI:Anrua gas use per souare foot •Enegy Vaket °ro9ltsforatechnologyinfloorspacethat•Ca;’orne SASS and CE.5hasthetechrc:ogy
•ResJts ‘rcn-previous stuces
•NWPCC Sixth Plan arid RF dataAppliance/equipment Age distrouton for each tecnnoogy •NEEA regoral survey datavi’tage distib.tior
•Prevous Glotal sti..ces
•DEEM
E’fciency cpticns ‘o List of eva atle e”iriercy cp:ors ard •DEER
eac-techrology a’nal energy jte for eacr te.-nolcgy •An-us EriergyOtico.r
•preVJ stjdies
Share of techcgy energy se that •Ltlllty dataPea‘actOrs c•rs durg the teak hour •EnergyShape database
2-1
40 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avista UtItles Gas CosrvorPctortiaIAacssrnont Anayss Aprøach and Data Dovooprnent
Data Application for Baseline Forecast
Table 2-7 summarIzes the LoadMAP model inputs required for the baseline forecast.These inputs are
required for each segment within each sector,as well as for new construction and existing
dwellings/buildings.
Table 2-7 Data Needs forthe Baseline Forecast and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP
Customer growth
fo’ecasts
rccnle gowth
foecasts
Equ’omert purc’ase
shares for baselire
forecast
Forecasts o’resdentl&c’Jstomer
growth and of C&I empoyment
owth
Fo-ecast of per capita come
Fo’each equipment/te&nology,
pjrcase shares for each effc’ency
Ievel specifred separately for
ecuiprrerrt replacement (repace.on
b.lnout)and rew onstrjcticr
•Data provrded by Avista
•Data provdec y Avista
•Shprierts data
•AEO 2c1:foecastassu-nptlnns
Aopilance/efftlency standards
ana ysis
•NEEA studTea
We developed Initial baseline purchase shares based on the Energy Information Agency’s Annual
Energy Outlook report (2011).Beyond 2011,we assumed a frozen efficiency case In which the
purchase shares for efficient equipment do not change during the study period,unless
equipment standards remove a technology option from the market.Table 2-8 and Table 2-9
show the assumptions regarding upcoming standards,based on known standards as of January
2011.ThIs approach removes any effects of naturally occurring conservation or effects of future
conservation programs that may be embedded in the AEO forecasts.Thus the CPA’s resulting
forecasts of potential compared to this baseline are gross forecasts because naturally occurring
conservation effects have been removed.
Global Erieu Partnern
An ErrN’X Coma,
Model Inputs Description Key Sources
________
L____________
__________
Gas prices Forecast of average gas prices •Avista price ‘orecasts
Jtizatrcn model P-ice elasticres,elasticities for other •EPR ‘s EEPS and COMMEND
Darameters vaiables (Income,weathe)models
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42 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avrsta UtI.tkrs Gas Corrservabcn Potential Assessment Anayss Approach end Data Dve’pment
Eneigy Conse,vation Measure Data Application
Table 2-10 details the data sources used for measure characterization.
Table 2-10 Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP
The arnual -eduction in co’s.-rpt1on
attributable to each specflc Treasure.
Savings were developec as a Dercentage
of the e’ergy end se that tne measre
affects.
—NWPCC Sixth Plan corservation
workbooks
•RTF ceerred neas.re databases
•BEST
•EPRI Nations Stjdy
•DEEM
•DEER
•Othe-secondary sources
ob Energy Parner
An Er’erNQC Cor’pany
Model Inputs Description Key Sources
Errergy trrpacts
Equipment Measures:includes the fuf
cost ourchasng and rrstaling the
eqJpmerrt on a perunit or per-square-
foot basis for the resdenttal and C&I •NWPCt Sixth Plan corservatior
sectors,respectively wcricbooks
ts Non-eqpment measures:Existing •RTF-ceerred measure databases
buldngs—fu ‘stalledcost.New •DEEM
Constr_ct(on -the costs may oe either •DEER
tne fui co5t of the measure,or as •Other secondary sources
appoprate,it may be the Tncremer’ta
cost&uoadngfroma standard eve
to a higher efflcie-’cy eve.
•NWPCC Sixth Plan corservation
Estimates derived from the tecnca worKbooks
data and secondary data sourcesthat •RIF deemed measure databasesMeasureUfetirnessupportthemeasureaeriandand•DEEM
ene-gy savings analysis •DEER
•Othe secondary sources
•NWPCC Sixth Diar,co’servatiorEstimateoft—a Percentage o either worlcbooksdweiings7ntheresicentaisectoror•RTF ceerred measure databasesAppilcabitysquare‘eet.r teC&sectorswhereti-e •DEEMmeasuressapplicableandwhereitis
technical y feasbe to riplemert •DEER
•Othe-seconcary sources
Expressed as yeas or eqJpnent
Dr MarKet and 0”measures to reflect w’-en the •Appliance,cu dirg codes,and
Market AvaaoVly ec uiomert tecnnology is asaiabie or no stance ds aria ysis
onger avalable h the market
2-17
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 43
sta Jtmtcs Ga Conscr’aton Pott&Assrnen AT1alyiS Apoach ar.Data evaopmnt
Data Application for Cost-effectiveness Screening
To perform the cost-effectiveness screening,the following information was needed:
•Avoided cost of energy provided by Avista,as shown In Figure 2-4.The avoided costs arebasedonforecastedHenryHubmarketcosts.
•Line (pipeline)losses of 1.9%,provided by Avista
•Discount rate of 4%,provided by Avista
•Program administration costs.For this study,we used a value of 6%provIded by Avista.
Figure 2-4 Avoided Costs of Energy Forecast
LE
•k.‘‘‘‘‘%%‘‘1.‘
Potentials Estimation
To estimate potentials,two sets of parameters were required.
Adoption rates formrn-eqwpnient mea5ures.Equipment is assumed to be replaced attheendofitsusefullife,but for non-equipment measures,a set of factors is required tomodelthegradualimplementationovertime.Rather than installing all non-equipmentmeasuresInthefirstyearoftheforecast(instantaneous potential),they are phased inaccordingtoadoptionschedulesthatvarybasedonequipmentcostandmeasurecomplexity.The adoption rates for the Avista study were bases on ramp rate curves specified In theNWPCCSixthPowerPlan.These adoption rates are used within L0adMAP to generate thetechnicalandeconomicpotentials.
•Market acceptance rates (MAR,l.These factors are applied to Economic potential toestimateAchievablepotential.These rates were developed using the Council ramp rates.Insomecases,the rates were adjusted to reflect Avista OSM program history.
Ramp rates and MARs are discussed In Appendix E.
2-18 --WWW,o(.orn
44 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
CHAPTER 3
MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES
Avista Utilities,headquartered in Spokane,Washington is an investor owned utility with annual
revenues ofmore than $1.3 billion.Avista provides electric and natural gas service to about 481,000
customers in a service terrItory of more than 30,000 square miles.Avista uses a mix of hydro,natural
gas,coal and biomass generation delivered over 2,100 mIles of transmissIon line,17,000 mIles of
distribution line,and 6,100 miles of natural gas distribution mains.AvIsta currently operates a
portfolio of electric and natural gas conservation programs in Washington,Idaho,and Oregon for
residential,low-Income,and non-residential customers that Is funded by a non-bypassable systems
benefits charge.
Total natural gas use in 2010 for the residential,commercial,and industrial rate classes included
in this potential assessment was 315,905,627 therms.’°As shown in Figure 3-1,the largest
sector is resIdential,accountIng for 59.8%of sales,followed by large commercial,with 22.5%of
sales.
FIgure 3-1 Sector-Level Gas Use,2010 (percentage of sales)
Industl&1.6%
Table 3-i shows additional detail by state and sector,including the rate classes included in each
sector,number of meters,sales,and average use per meter.The gas transportation rate classes,
which Include relatively large commercial and Industrial facilities,were excluded from the CPA
analysis.Therefore,most of the remaining Industrial customers are relatively small in terms of
their gas usage per meter,especially In Oregon.
‘E-rgy ua as measu’d a-rhe-rnebr “1 a ccc rt incI.jda I re
GIoba Energy Partners 3-1
An EnerNOC Company
Large
Commercial
22.5%
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 45
Washington Rate Numbarof ZOlOSal.s %of Avarag.Us.
Sactor data M.t.rs (l00Othm)WASales p.rMatar(thm)
Resdenttal 101 132,657 97,372 58.3%734
Smai Commercial 101 11,906 16,706 10.0%1,403
Large Commercial 111,112,121,122,132 2,292 49,808 29.8%21,731
industral 101,111,121,122 132 3,135 1.9%23,752
Washingtontotal 146,987 167,1 1000%1.136
Idaho Rate Numberof 2010 Sales %of Averig.Use
Sector Class Meters (l000thm)iDSal.s p.rM.t.r(thm)
Aviste Ulft:es Gts Corsorvaton Potenta’Astessment arkot Character zator and t’arket Proes
Table 3-1 2010 Gas Sales by State and Sector
Residential
Smal’Commercial
Large CommercIal
N/A
AllState Rate Numberof ZOlOSales %ofSystem Average Use
Sector Class Meters (l00Othm)Sales perMeter(thm)
282,418 188,894 59.8%
N/A 30,317 50,693 16.0%1,672
N/A 3,419 71,176 22.5%
669
ndustra N/A 253 5,141 1.6%20,322
Tot&3164W 315,906 100.0%998
20,818
Sma Commercial 101
ResIdential 101 6.2%672
7,398
Large Commercial 111,132 1,050
Industr a 101,111,112 99
Idahototal 74,193
8,432 1,140
17,820 24.7%16,971
1,681 2.3%16,978
72.017 100.0%971
Or.gon Rat.Numb.rof 2QlOSales %of Av.rageUs.
Sector Class Meters (l000thm)ORSales p.rM.t.r(thmJ
Ret dent aL 410 84,114
Smal CommercIal 420
Large Comrerciat 424 77
Industr a1 420,424 22
Oregon total 93,226
47,438 61.7%564
25.5’6 33.2%2,320
3,548 4.6 46.081
32 O.4 14,781
76,987 100.0%907
32 www.enernoc .com
46 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avsta UtItIen Gas Con rvaooPcteM1aI Ass smont ‘1arkot CtaractarIzstIon and F4arkot ?roFllos
ResdentiaI Sector
This section characterizes the residential market at a high level,and then provides a profile of
how customers In each segment use gas by end use.Total residential gas use In 2010 was 188.9
million therms.Customer information for each segment is shown In Table 3-2.System wide,the
single-family segment consumed 84%of total residential sector gas in 2010 as a result of having
the largest number of customers and the highest Intensity.
Table 3-2 ResIdentialSectorGas Usage andIntensity by State and Segment Type
MuIt Far’fy 25,755 11,615 6%451
MoblfeHome 33,729 19,45C 10%577
Tot.i 282A18 188,894 100%669
SngLe Family iC.7,230 83,143 85%775
Mull Fan,y 14,318 6,994 7%488
MoblieHorne 11,109 7,235 7%651
WuhingtonTotai 132657 97,372 100%734
SngeFamLly 51,487 35,371 83%706
Multi Farsi y 4,648 2,068 5%445
MobeHome 9,513 5,645 13%593
Idaho Total 65,648 44,084 100%672
S rg e Fam ly 64,217 38,117 81%597
VIt Fan y 6,789 2,552 5%376
Mobi eHcn’e 13,207 5,371 14%51:
Or.gon Total 84,114 47A38 100%564
As we describe In the previous diapter,the market profiles provide the foundation upon which
we develop the baseline forecast.fhe market profile for the residential sector as a whole for the
base year 2010 Is presented In Table 3-3.The residential market profiles for each housing
segment and state are presented In Appendix A.Bear In mind that the Avista residential
customers incjuded in this analysis all have natural gas service,and thus the percentages with
Gobai En€rgy Partrers 33
n EneINOC Company
Snge Family 222,934 157,83C 84%708
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 47
Avta Ublftes Gs Coneervaton Pcnta Asee5srnent MaretCharacter.zaunard Makot ProI’es
gas space heating and gas water heating,96%and 77%respectIvely,are higher than theywouldbeinthegeneralpopulationofallAvistaresidentialcustomers.
Table 3-3 MarketProfile for the Regidentlal Sector
Average Market Profiles
Figure 3-2 presents the end-use breakout for the average residential household,displaying both
annual usage per household and percentage of use.Space heating accounts for the lion’s share,
with 74%of residential sector gas sales or about 497 therms for the average household in 2010.
Figure 3-2 Residential Gas Use by End Use.Average Therms/Household and Percentage
ofSales,2010
Appliances,26,44N
Figure 3-3 shows the breakdown of annual use by end use for the average home in each state
and for the Avista residential sector as a whole.Space heating constitutes 77%of gas usage InWashington,/3’lo In Idaho,and from 71%in Oregon,reflecting the differences in climate among
the states,
End Use
Space Heatg
Space Heat’ng
Space Heat’g
Water Heatrig
Appances
App ances
Miscellaneous
‘VSscellaneous
Technology
Furnace
Boiler
OtherHeat ig
Water—leater
Clot,es Dryer
Stove/Oven
Pool Heater
Msceaneous
UEC Intensity UsageSaturation(Thrni)(Thrn/HHJ immThrm)
83%53E 446.08 125.98
2%415 10.15 2.87
9%472 40.29 11.38
77%170 130.4:36.83
24%23 5.59 1.58
56%37 20.63 5.83
4%205 7.95 2.25
8 775 2.:.9
668.188.89Total
Miscellaneous,I 16,2%
Water Heating,
—130,20%
‘4 www.enernoc.com
48 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avita UtItic G Conservatjon PotoibaI Asaaarnont 1ark Chararlzation and MarLot ProIlos
Figure 3-3 Annual Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use andState,2010
800
700
200
103
Commercial and Industrial Sector
Total natural gas use In the commercial and IndustrIal (C&I)sector in 2010 was 12/.0 million
therms.Avlsta rate classes were used to allocate this energy use to three segments per state.
Intensity estImates in therms/sq.ft.were developed and then used to infer the segment size in
floor space for each segment.Table 3-4 displays the resulting sales,intensity,and segment size.
Due to the characteristics of the rate structures,a greater percentage of C&I customers in
Oregon are classified as small commercIal,as compared with Washington and Idaho.
Global 5iic.Partners --—
An ErerrwX Comparry
---I-
0
600
0
500
C03
303
0Cw
00CC4
II
•space Heatng
—•Watei-eatTng
•AppFances
I Misce laecus
Washtngton Idaho Oregon All Homes
3-5
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 49
Avsa Utittes Gas Conserve6on Potenta.Assosamerit Mariet Character,zaLori an r’arLt Proes
Table 3-4 C&1 Sector Gas Usage and Intensity by State andSegmen4 2010
Large Cormercal N/A 11,176 56%0.649 109.866
rdi.strla N/A 5,141 4%0.776 6.621
All States Total 127,Q11 100%0.481 264 CBS
Sma Commercai 101 16,706 24%0.363 46.021
Lage Corirnercal 1.l,112,121,122,132 49,808 72%0.680 75.467
Indistr1ai 101,111,121,122 3,135 5%0.792 3.9S9
WashlngtonTotal 69,649 100%0.555 125.447
smal:Commercial j 101 [8,432 30%0.347 24.335
Large Commerc4al 111,132 17,820 64%0.630 28.285
industnat
I
101,111.112 1,681 6%3.759 I
Idaho Total I 27,933 100%0.509 1
Srna Commercia’420 J 25,556 87%0.330 77.441
Large Cor”n’erc al 424 3,548 129t 0.800 5.914
r’cistria 420,424 37 1%0.726 0.448
Oregon Total 29,429 100%0.351 83.)3
Small Commercial N/A 50,693 40%0.343 147.798
3-6 www enernoc corn
50 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Average Market Profiles
AvistaUtIics Gas Co ewatofl Potential Aasessrnent 4arkct Cha cOerization and MarLotrofiIes
Table 3-5 shows the market profile for C&I customers as a whole,representing a composite of
small commercial,large commercial,and industrial.Overall,about 94%of the floor space for
these gas customers Is heated with natural gas.Market profiles for each segment and state are
presented in Appendix A.
Table 3-5 Commercial Sector Composite Market Profile,20.10
.EUI Intensity UsageEnduseTechnologySaturation(Thrni)(Thrm/Sqft.)(mmThrm)
Space Heating Fjrrace 60%0.222 0:33 35.C3
Space Heatirg Boiler 20%0.697 C.40 37.09a
Space Heating OtherHeating 14%0.198 0.328 7.379
Water Heatng Water Heater 3r/0 0.264 0.098 25.816
Food Preparation Oven 16%0.042 0.007 .Th4
Food Preparatlor Fryer 16%0.064 0.010 2.682
Food Preparatlor BroIler 16%0.064 0.010 2.679
Food Preparatlor Gridd’e 16%0..06 0.010 2.679
Food Preparatlor Range 16%0047 0.007 1.978
Food Preparatlor Stearer 16%0.$0 0.023 3.342
Process Process Heating 3%0.671 0.017 4.446
Process Process Coollrg 3%0.001 0.000 0.008
Process OIlier Process 3%000 0.000 0.030
Miscellareo.a Pool I-eater 1%0.117 0.002 0.409
MlaceIIareoL.s MiscellareoLn.100%0.006 0.006 .627
Total 0.451.127.011
Figure 3-4 illustrates the distribution of gas consumption by end use for small commercial,large
commercial,Industrial,and C&I facilities as a whole.As one would expect,space heating is the
predominant use,representing 63%of overall C&I gas consumption.For Industrial facilities
however,process heating represents the greatest share.
Figure 3-4 C&IEnd Use IntensIties,2010
1.40 —
3.20
1.00
E 0.80
1.E 0.40
020
I.—
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•Watei-eatEig
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rOt.tr al All 28,
Global energy Partners
An ErerNOC Company
3-7
cr-4
BASELINE FORECAST
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 51
Prior to developing estimates of conservation potential,a baseline end-use forecast was
developed to quantify how natural gas is used by end use in the base year and what the
consumption Is likely to be in the future in absence of new utility programs and naturally
occurring conservation.‘The baseline forecast serves as the metric against which conservationpotentialsaremeasured.
Residential Sector
The baseline forecast incorporates assumptions about customer growth,economic growth,
natural gas prices,and appliance/equipment standards and building codes already mandated.
Figure 4’1 and Table 4-1 present the baseline forecast at the end-use level for the residential
sector,Overall,residential use increases,from about 188.9 million therms in 2010 to 269.3
million therms in 2032,a 43%Increase,translating to an average annual growth rate of 1.6%.
Figure 4-1 ResIdentialBaseline Forecast by End Use
300.030
ter “eat’g It’83.0 3b943 3.7940 3.93.82 43,3.1 45 652 55,025 49”.1.8”.
#pphnces 7,404 7,313 7388 7649 8,319 9734 10,233 38’1.5%
Miscellaneous 4.43.3 4 705 4 837 5.266 6,077 6.975 7 995 80
totel 188,894 196,073 197,449 204,112 219,778 241,292 269.214 43%1.6%
250,000
200,000
150.000
103,000
50,000
•Space Heating
Water Heat”,g
—Appliaoces
•Msce a neous
E
I8
CC
2010 2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Table 4-1 ResIdential Baseline Forecast by End Use (1000 therm)
-—,—,,-t_
Space t-lea1 ng 143227 137:12 137684 5:61Z 162.057 176.33.0 196.022 40’.
4-1GlobalEnergyPa’tners
An Er’e’NOC Company
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42
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 53
Avsta Ut baa Ga5 C nsarvaton Pct tia Aeasant Easolne Forecast
Figure 4-2 presents the forecast of use per household.Most noticeable Is that space heating,water heating,and appliance use all decrease slightly,due to new equipment standards thatcomeIntoeffectbetween2014and2015.After 2022,however,total use begins to grow again,
due to the assumption that average home size continues to grow slightly as older housing stock
is replaced.
Figure 4-2 Residential Baseline Use per Household by End Use
800 ---------------—----
Commercial and Industrial Sector
Natural gas use in the C&I sector continues to grow,albeit slowly,during the forecast horizon,as
new C&[construction Increases overall square footage In the commercial sector.In addition,
existing buildings are renovated to Incorporate additional amenities,such as full-scale kitchens.Consumption starts at 127 mililon therms In 2010 and increases to nearly 136 mIllion therms In2032,an overall growth of 7.1%.
Figure 4-3 and Table 43 present the baseline forecast at the end-use level for the C&I sector asawhole.All end uses show growth over the forecast period,with the exception of space heatingwithonly2%growth,which Is attributed to upcoming equipment standards.
Global Energy Partners
n EnerNOC Company
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400
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200
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Space featrg
•Water Heatig
•AGpIances
•MsceIIareous
2010 2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
4-3
54 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
J.ites G45 Consrvaon Ftrta Asnet -345e1r.e Forca5t
Figure 4-3 Commercial and Industrial Baseline Forecastby End Use
160,000 —-------_—
140,000
::
4C,000
-----—-—.-
--------—---
-Miscellaneous
2C,000
—•--
2010 2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
78,184 78,553 79,021 79488 801:h 81626
Nater Neatng 25816 24,685 24,873 25,412 26,574 27892 29,251 13.3%0.6%
Fcvd Prepar8tcn 15 095 15,122 15,312 15,724 16374 16969 17,527 16.1,0.7%
Procs 4,464 4,391 4,430 4.517 432 4,759 4,898 92%0A%
5isceeneous 2036 2047 2,077 2,146 2251 2359 2,473 21.5 09%
Fot 127011 124,429 125,244 126.819 129,319 132,094 135.976 7.1%03%
Table 4-4 presents the commercial sector forecast by technology.Specific observations Include:
•Growth in the HVAC and water heating end uses is moderate,commensurate with projected
growth In floor space and employment,the two principal drivers of commercial sector
consumption.
•Food preparation,though remaining a small percentage of total usage,grows at a higher
rate than other end uses.This reflects the addition of kitchen facilities to commercial office
buildings during new construction or renovation,as well as the expansion of food service
offerings In other building types as well.
•Consumption by miscellaneous equipment also increases.This reflects the assumption that
buildings In the commercial sector will Increase use.
•Growth In process heating Is also commensurate with projected Industrial growth.
Table 4-3 CommercialNatural Gas Consumption by End Use (1000-therm)
space 1et,’g 79,580 0.1%
4-4 www enernoc .conl
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56 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avista Jtflltes Gas Conscrvaon Potental Assessmeit BasaIne Forc’cast
System-wide Baseline Forecast
Table 4-5 and FIgure 4-4 provIde an overall summary of the baseline forecast by sector for Avista
as a whole.Overall,the forecast for the next 20 years grows steadily,dominated by growth In
the residential sector,as discussed above.
Table 4-5 Baseline ForecastSummaly (1000 the,m)
Smal’Ccn’rnercla 50,693 50.130 50.53C 5 27,sa,378 53494 55 120 9%0.4%
i.arCon,rreTLIa 71,176 69,274 69647 70,392 71,667 7’,191 75,295 6,0.2%
naustrlal 5,141 .C26 5 067 5,156 5,274 5,409 5,560 8%03%
ToM 316,906 320,503 322693 330,932 349,097 373,385 405,250 28%1.1%
Figure 4-4 BaselIne Forecast Summaiy,by Sector
•Resdentla •SmaI Commercial
LargeComrrercal •irdustraI
450,000
401,000 ——.-—-——-—
-
—a
351,021)‘————,-•—..——
E __-——
—..___.__.______
0
:‘‘‘111111111.C.S’.0 111111111
5020 111111 11111
$1...p 41.45.45
RIâe,tja’188 894 196.073 197,449 204,1.12 219 778 241,292 269,274
Gioba Errç Fdrr,-’’
An ErerOC Cornr,
Washirgto’,•da’o •O’ego”
45C000 -———-—--—---——-—--——-----—-
400,ODO
350,003 --—-
(EEE HiiiIiliiil 11111
150,000 ----C
130,00fl —
50000 --———‘,—i-I-j --7 ‘
—4’1 —
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 57
Avata UtItis Gas Consorvabor.l’otcnbs Asseasmont Saselno Frcast
Table 4-6 and Figure 4-5 provIde an overall summary of the baseline forecast by state.Growth isprojectedtobehighestinIdaho,based on assumptions regarding customer growth1 followed byOregon.
Table 4-6 Baseline ForecastSummary,by State (1000-the,m)
Figure 4-5 Baseline Forecast Summary,By State
Global Onerpy ratrers 4-7AnErrerNDCCompany
58 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
5
CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
This chapter presents the results of the potential analysis,with overall potential presented first,
followed by results for each sector.All results show cumulative potential.Additional details for all
years and incremental annual results appear In Appendix F.
Table 5-1 summarizes achievable potential by state and sector for selected years.
Table 5-1 CumulativeAchievable Conservation Potential by State and by Sector
darro 364 821 2,734 5601 8,758 ::,g14
Oregon 289 715 3,136 7251 10,706 3,559
Total 1,546 3,738 12,794 28,21 41,349 52,381
Resiertial 515 .,567 6,507 14,903 22,278 29,960
Sma I Comercal 2C6 469 1588 3,557 5,719 7,018
Large Comrrre’cia 801 1,654 4548 9,436 13,C7 .5,027
IndstraI 25 49 151 319 354 377
Total 1,546 3,738 12,794 28,216 41,349 52,381
As shown in Figure 52,initially,the large commercial sector provides a relatively higher
percentage of the achievable savings compared with its share of sales,but over time this
situation changes,so that the residential sector’s share of savings is greatest,mainly due to
growth in residential customer count.
Goha tnergy Partners
Ar ErNOC Cc’npany
Wasrrngtor 893 2,203 6,923 15,364 21,885 26,909
51
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 59
Asta U.tcs Gas Conservator ?tenta ,?,ssessme-lt Conservator ?o’ta
Figure 5-1 Cumulative Achievable Consen’ation Potential Savings by Sector
60,000 -—-—--—
E
5C,000 ——-——
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4C,000
•industrial
ac,oo:—
_
Large Commercial
•Small Comercial
?,00.--
11
•iesicientiai
10,o0 -.•———---
-
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Table 5-2 presents the baseline forecasts of energy consumption,as well as the three levels ofconservationpotentialfortheresidential,commercial,and industrial sectors.As discussed indetailInChapter4,the baseline forecast across all sectors increases over the 20-year timeperiod.This is due largely to the growth In the residential sector,whkh is tempered somewhatduetoapplianceandequipmentstandards,building codes,and a sluggish economy in the initialyears.Key findings related to potentials are summarized below.
•Achievable potentlaiacross the residential,commercial,and industrial sectors is 28.2
million therms in 2022 and increases to 52.4 million therms by 2032.These savings represent8.1%of the baseline forecast In 2022 and 12.9%In 2032.
•Economic potential,which reflects the savings when all cost effective measures are taken,
Is 31.8 million therms in 2022.This represents 9.1%of the baseline energy forecast.By2032,economic potential reaches 59.0 million therms,14.6i’c of the baseline energyforecast.
•Technical potential,which reflects the adoption of all conservation measures regardless ofcost-effectIveness,is a theoretical upper bound on savings.Technical potential is substantial,because measures such as solar thermal water heating could cut energy use dramatically.In2022,energy savings are 91.7 million therms,equivalent to 26.3%of the baseline energyforecast.By 2032,technical potential reaches 157.5 million therms,38.9%of the baselineenergyforecast.The relatively wide gap between technical and economic potential reflectsthelowavoidedcosts,as well as the fact that Avista’s long-running conservation programs
have already achieved much of the cost-effective conservation.As a result,additional
conservation measures are b&omlng relatively more costly,and many do not pass the cost-effectiveness screen based on Avista’s currerit avoided costs,
5-2 -
60 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
Avsta jt,Tt:Ccr Aer.t Cc—sn Pcint.
Table 5-2 Summary of Cumulative Achievable,Economic,and Technical Conservation
Potential
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
BaselTne Forecast (1000 thrn)
32’,523 I 22,69Z 33,9 49,D.,7 73 SE 4S,25C
CumulatIve Natural Gas Savings (1000 thm)
Achievable 1,546 3738 12,794 28,216 41.349 52,381
Economic 1,797 4,333 14,785 31,757 45.809 58,965
Technical 7,623 15,844 46,189 91,655 131,422 157,520
Cumu1atve Natural Gas Savings (of Basefine
A8ev .5’27 ‘‘.1’.95
(.-I.3’4 J.1.1?
24 $5 ‘2E 3 ‘L2 L
F:re 5-2 suir’ari.-:is tb effc cy i[ng br th.i thri v€Is ci’po1wUa ‘-i:
ibe b6se’forecjst.Fure 5 rsp1y’,i’baehne and ctser t,’)r oteo’J !orests.Th
--ec baTI [ne.de5 thi 2CIC sa’ve in 2022,Achie.vah P’:rae by the
b’e .nc,sts S the g-o’tr i the S(’[i’(:foc’.ast c nc ?D12 By 2Di?,
pot’nt .)f’srts o that g”cvSt
FIgure 5-2 Summary of Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings
‘4.---.......—---.,_.———.
4 ._-..——.—---.____
C -•Aiabe —.—---—
i’———•Fonom’—-—
0
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-
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x.II 1 I
2013 2014 2r 22 2027 2032
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5-3
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 61
Ase Utt.s Gas Conservaor,Potenca Assessment —-Conservaton ‘otartaI
Figure 5-3 Conservation Potential Energy Forecasts (1000 therm)
450,000 -——--——------
_____
EE ZE:E*!!!tZ
203 003 —-
W •BaseHne
153 003 —-—-—Acievable -—
Ecor,omc
100,003 —‘echicai
—-‘200 Use
50000 ‘---—•--------...—.-.,-•..
Residential Sector
Table 5-3 presents estimates for the three types of potential for the residential sector.Note that
we have included in the achievable and economic potential specific weatherization measures inOregon,which although not cost-effective,are mandated to be included in residential DSM
programs.
•Achievable potential is 14.9 million therms in 2022.This level of potential is equivalent to6.8%of the residential baseline forecast for that year.By 2032,the cumulative achievableconservationsavingsare30.0 million therms,11.1%of the baseline foreca.
•Economicpotential,which reflects the savings when all cost-effective measures are taken,
is 16.8 millIon therms in 2022,or 7.6%of the baseline energy forecast.By 2032,economicpotentialreaches34.4 million therms,12.8%of the baseline energy forecast.
•Technicalpotential,which reflects the adoption of all energy conservation measures
regardless of cost,is a theoretical upper bound on savings.The JO-year technical potential is55.2 million therms,or 25.1%of the baseline energy forecast.By 2032,technical potentialreaches101.4 million therms,37.6%of the baseline energy forecast.
4 ww..enernoccom
62 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Av.s L;:G C:erv-.r.Pei:i Asnr.t Cse’v Di Pctnt,
Table 5-3 ResidentIal Sector Cumulative Consen’ation Potential Summary
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Baseline Forecast 1000 thm)
I967 17.449 24112 219,778 241,292 269,274
Cumulathe Natural as Saving%(1000 thml
Ach,evable 515 1,567 6,507 14903 22,278 29,960
Eonomc 732 2,034 7.839 16,771 25.105 34,439
Technical 4,757 9.491 28,678 55.233 80,721 101.352
Cumulative Natural Gn Saviag’5i o B.iwlino)
;ch 0.3 2’.3.2 .
Ect”om j 142 1.7.73.17.4 11.5
7erii 7.6.’4.Q 4,D,7$1%S .3
Fgur 5-4 ,umr’res the reTy-efQenc svng-ör the tbr ieVIt;of 3Jtent!e.atvL to
th haene ftrer.st.c,i’5-5 :cpIay he haselie a’d n’servatc ptentTa tor&act.,The
doftd bJu Qre dpt’t’e 2011 L1Sâ.i ev’.In 2022.,I4.hJ-Iabk p:tc’i,njtd L th
L’.i r,ofstt,5D f t’t ;-c’’:t’ni in re.oe’t&hDsehnj fo-er11 .rri 2012 y 2Q22,
Acbeaoe Doteit.a:oftse.s 3;o tn,t .grow.h.
FIgure 5-4 Residential Cumulative Conservation Potential Savings
C
•AchevhIt ,...-.
•Ecrornic
--•T’l —-.--,.-‘-
---
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.I 0--——-----——
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2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 63
Avs1a ‘J1tes Ge CorservatonPotentaAssossrnent
Figure 5-5 Residential Conservation Potential Forecast
500,000 —--———--__________—
Consersaton ctptaI
—Base ie
——
-——•—Achievabe
Econo’C
—echnjcal
2010Use
-:-‘-•
Residenbal Potential by Housing Type and State
Single-family homes represent about 79%of Avista’s residential gas customers,but accountedfor84%of the sector’s consumption In 2010.The distribution of potential savings by segment Isnearlythesameasthedistributionofconsumptionamongthesectors,as shown In Table 5-4.
Table 5-4 Residential Cumulative Achievable Potentialby Housing Type,Selected Years
Sirge Family 163,823 64,914 170,332 183,163 200,847 223,978
N’Jti Fam y 12,108 1 2,234 :7,736 13824 15,255 7,033
Mob’e Home 20,143 20,330 2,045 22,791 25,189 28,263
Total 196,073 197,449 204,112 219,778 241,292 269,274
Natural G Savings (1000 therm)
SingleFarsily 427 1,343 5,472 12,713 18,853 24,847
Multi Family 26 65 310 750 1.265 2.041
Mobile Home 61 158 724 1,441 2,161 3,072
Total 515 1,567 6,507 14,903 22,278 29,960
%ofTotai Resldentiai Savings
Srg e Family £3DS 85.7%54.1%853%346%5l9°-
tVilt!Fern y 51%4.2’o 4.8%5.3%5.7%62%
Mobe Home 1:9%10.1%11.1%9.7%9.7%10.3%
8
0
31
0’
=
fez
250,000 —----
:::::.
Baseline Forect (1000 therm)
6 www erserr,oc.com
64 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Austa utI:ties Gan Cc ‘vatcr ?ote9tial Asmcnt Conaawvaton Potcniia
The distribution of achievable savings by state is shown In Table 5-5.Whereas Oregon
represents only about one-quarter of the baseline forecast,it makes up between 28 and 35%of
the achievable potential savings.This Is due to the Inclusion of mandated weatherlzatlon and
Insulation measures within Oregon’s achievable potential.
Table 5-5 Residential CumulativeAchievable Potential by State,Selected Yea,
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Baseline Forecast (1000 therm)
WagtDn 1OC,894 101,415 114,274 11C,964 .9,962 132,C43
daho 46,065 46,424 48,239 52,647 58,832 67,C38
Cego 49,1:4 49,639 5.,629 56,167 62,498 7C,93
Total 196,073 197,449 204,112 219,778 241,292 269,274
Natural Gas SavIngs (1000 therm)
Washington 237 838 3.017 7,268 10,634 13,894
Idaho 121 306 1,248 2,337 4,002 6,246
Oregon 156 422 2,242 5.298 7,642 9,819
Total 515 1,567 6,507 14,903 22,278 29,960
%of Total Residential Savings
Wash’ign 46.2%535%46.4%48.8%41.7%46.4%
daho 23.6%19.6%19.2%15.7%18.0%20.8%
Oregoi 30.3%26.9%34.5%355%343%32.8%
Table 56 shows additional detail by state for 2022,including the cumulative economic and
technical potential,as well as achievable potential.We note that technical potential savings as a
percentage of baseline is roughly the same across the states.However,economic and achievable
potential as a percentage of baseline use is highest in Oregon,again because of the inclusion of
mandated weatherization and insulation measures.
Gaba Energy Partners 57
An E’erNOC Co’r’pany
2012 AVISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 65
Baselne Forecast
Energy Savings (1000 thm)
11C,964
5,298 14,933
Avst UtiItes Gst Consrvaton Potert&Assesamant ---Censeryaton Potential
Table 5-6 Residential Cumulative Potential Summa,y by State,2022
Washington Idaho Oregon1 AN States
52,647
Achievable 7,268 2,337
56,167 219,778
Ecolomlc 8,322 2,723 5,726 16,771
TechnIcal 27,441 :3,235 14,557 5E,233
Energy Savings (%of Baseline)
kl’evab[e 6.6%4.4%9.4%6.8%
Eco’iomic 7.5%5.2%IC.2%7.6%
Technical 24.7%25.1%25.9%251%
1.Oregon potential includes mandated r&dentia weatherizatlor and !nsulaton measures.
Residential Potential by End Use,Technology and Measure Type
Table 5-7 provides estimates of savings for each end use and type of potential.Focusing first on
technical potential,there are significant savings possible;however,due to low avoided costs,
many of these measures are cost-ineffective and thus economic and achievable potential aremuchlower.
Space heating,which Is the highest use in the residential sector,offers between 53%and
59%of the technical potential,depending on the year.This potential would be achieved If allfurnaces,boilers,and unit heaters were replaced with the most efficient units available,andallinsulation,weatherization,and controls measures were Installed as well.However,in most
cases,with the exception of boilers and unit heaters In selected housing types,the higher-
efficiency units are not cost effective compared with standard efficiency units.And many oftheweatherlatlonmeasuresarelikewisecostineffective,especially In the earlier years oftheforecast.In 2022,space heating represents 69%of economic potential and 70%ofachievablepotential.
•Water flea titg offers between 40%and 46%of technical potential depending on the year.This potential reflects the across the board-Installation of solar water heating.However,solar
water heating is not cost effective,particularly in the Northwestern climate.In addition,
higher efficiency conventional equIpment Is not cost effective compared with standard
efficiency models.However,many of the water heating non-equipment measures,such asinsulatingtanksandpipesorflow-reducing devices,are cost-effective and thus do contributetoeconomicandachievablepotential.In 2022,water heating represents 31%of economic
potential and 30%of achievable potential.
•Appliances and Miscellaneous represent a small percentage of the technical potential in
any given year —so small that even when combined they constitute less than 1 of the
total technical potential.In any case,equipment upgrades were not found to be cost-effective,so economic and achievable potential for these two end uses are zero.
5-8 www.enernoc.com
66 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avita JtItie5 Oat Conto-vabon ‘ctontlaI Asaea5r,er,t Contervabop Potential
Table 5-7 ResidentIal cumulative Savings by End Use and Potential Type (1000-then,,)
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Achlevab’e 291 991 3,922 1C,416 15,924 21,100
EconomIc 455 1,314 4,838 1.,535 17,696 24,187
2,666 5.361 16,073 31,492 46,405 59,916
AchIevable 223 576 2,585 4,488 6.354 8,859
ater EconomIc 277 721 3,032 5.235 7,409 10,252
Heating
Technical 2.042 4,332 12,396 23,354 33,787 40,830
Achlevabe 0 0 0 3 3 0
Applfaic EconomIc 0 0 3 C C C
Technica 32 63 114 182 221 240
Achievable 0 0 0 0 0 0
Misc.EconomIc 0 0 0 0 0 0
TechnIcal 17 36 95 205 308 365
AdilevabIe 515 1,567 6,507 14,903 22,278 29,960
Total EnomIc 732 2,034 7,839 16,771 25,105 34,439
Technical 4,757 9,491 28,678 55,233 80,721 101,352
As described in Chapter 2,using our LoadMAP model,we develop separate estimates of potential
for equipment and non-equipment measures,Table 5-8 presents results for equipment at the
technology level and Table 5-9 presents non•equIpment measures In 2022.rn any given year,at
least 94%of the savings come from the non-equipment measures.
Table 5-8 ResIdential cumulative Achievable Potential,EquipmentMeasures (1000
thm)
CT’
Jrflace .-.-
Space -Ieatng Bc 1e 3 6 16 78 244 446 682
Other-letting 12 2C 34 91 257 5C6 748
Water Heating Water Heater 7 10 24 24 26 24 -
Total Equipment Savlng 22 36 73 193 527 979 1,430
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An EnerNOC Company
Space
Heating
Technlca
5-9
2O12AVISTANATLJRALGASIRP II 67
Avsta )tiiitos Gas Consorvation Potonta!Assessrne Conservaton notental
Table 5-9 Residential Cumulative Achievable Potential,Non-equip.Measures (1000
thm)
i 1PIa •‘tI)’
Advanced New Construction Deagns -.,---
Hometnergy Management System 109 45 126 446 1,655 2.565 3,626
Doe-s -StormaccThernal ----
Insulation-Ceiling 3 3 7 28 102 231
risulatlon-Ducting 14 11 25 112 654 738
Intulation -Foundation ----
r’sulation -nf ltrator Control 3 4 139 918 3,035 4,227 5,784
Insulation-WailCavity 1.3 1.0 24 107 397 690 824
Thermostat-C ocrjProgrammnabie 96 125 320 1,377 1,875 1,953 2,164
ENERGYSTARH0mes ----
Furnace Martenance -----
Boiler-Pipeinsulaton 0 o 6 16 33 45
nsuiation-AttcHatct’1 1 2 &30 54 80
Ducting-RepairandSealing 33 25 297 750 4.607 6.178
Firepiace-DarnperCortroi ----
Windows -ENERGY STAR ----
WaterHatlng-FaucetAerators is 25 66 302 474 541 610
Water Heating Low Flow Showerheads 295 1,406 2,409 2,821 3,166
Water Heating-Dpe nsjatlor 30 40 107 497 794 895 1,000
Water Heating Tank Blanket/Insulation 5 33 85 355 477 470 469
Water Heating-Therr”ostatSetbac4 --
-374 1,953
Water Heating -Timer -----
Water Heating --lot Wets’Saver ----308 1.228 1,662
Water Heating-Orainwater Heat Recovery ----
Total,Non-equipment Measures 452 478 1,693 6,314 14,376 21,299 28,531
Total,All Measures 475 515 1,567 6,507 14,903 22,278 29,960
Based on the above measure-by measure findings,the greatest sources of residential achievablepotentialin2022,across all three states,are as follows:
•Shell measures and i,;sulition,which representIng 6.4 million therms or 43%of allsavings
•Thermostats and home energy monitoring sysferns,which provIde 3.5 million thermsor24*of all savings
•Water-saving devices,including low-flow showerheads and faucet aerators,whichcombinefor3.2 mIllion therms or 21*of achievable potential
•Water heater tank blankets and pipe ,,tsulat,on,which provide an additIonal 1,3 mIllionthermsornearly9%of achievable potential
5-10 ---wwwenerr
68 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avsta UtIUs Gay Conyi-vabori Potet1aI Ayyeysment -Coriservaon Polrillai
Commercial and Industrial Sector Potential
The baseline forecast for the C&I sector grows steadily during the forecast period as the region
emerges from the economic downturn.As a result,opportunities for energy-efficiency savings
are significant for the commercial sector.However,as with the residential sector,many
conservation opportunities are cost-ineffective,given current projections of gas avoided costs.
•Achievable potential projects 13.3 mIllion therms of energy savings In 2022 and 22.4
million therms in 2032.This corresponds to 10.3%of the baseline forecast in 2022 and
16.5%in 2032.
•Economic poteritidi,which reflects the savings when all cost-effective measures are taken,
Is 15.0 million therms In 2022.ThIs represents 11.6%of the baseline energy forecast.By
2032,economIc potential reaches 24.5 millIon therms,18.0%of the baseline energy
forecast.
•Technical potential.which reflects the adoption of all energy conservation measures
regardless of cost,is a theoretical upper bound on savings.In 202?,technical potential
energy savings are 36.4 millIon therms,or 28.2%of the baseline energy forecast.By 2032,
technical potential reaches 56.1 mIllion therms,41.3%of the baseline energy forecast.
Table 5-10 and Figure 5-6 present the savings associated with each level of potential.F-lgure 5-7
shows the CM sector baseline forecast and the three potential level forecasts,as well as the
2010 usage level.
Table 5-10 C&ISector Cumulative Conservation PotentialSummary
2013 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032
Baseline Forecast (1000 thrn)
124,429 1244 126,819 129,319 132,094 (135,976
Cumulative NaturalG.sS.vlnga(l000thm)
Achievable i.oJ 2,172 6,287 1,312 19.011 22,422
Economic 1,065 2,299 6,945 14.986 20,704 24,526
Technical 2.8651 6,353 17,511 36,422 50,702 56,169
Cumulative Natural Gas Savings (%of Baseline)
Ac1ievab e 0.8%..7%5.C%10.3%14.4%
Economic 0.9%1.6%j.E%11.6%15.73’o
Technical 2.3%8.1%13.8%282%38.4%41.36
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70 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Avata UtI tics Gas ConScruation Pcte,tal Asyesmcnt conservation Potentia’
C&I Potential by Segment and State
Table 5-11 and Table 5-12 provide additional detail on the cumulative achievable potential for
selected years.As expected,the large commercial segment provides the greatest savings.
Table 5-11 C&I Cumulative Achievable Potential by Sector,Selected Years
Baseline Forecast (1000 therm)
Sn,.Comme-ciat 50,130 53,520 51,271 52,378 53,494 55,120
,Commca.69,274 69,647 71,352 71,667 73,191 75,255
ndusial 5,026 5,067 5,156 5,274 5,4C9 5,560
Total 124,429 125,244 125,819 129,319 132,094 135,976
Natur Gas Sevings 1000 therm)
Sm.CommercIal 206 469 1,588 3,557 5109 7,018
L,Commercial 801 1,654 4,548 9.436 13,007 15,027
ndutrIai 25 49 151 319 354 371
Total 1,031 2,172 6,287 13,312 19,071 22,422
%of Total C&I Savings_______
SrrCommeciar 2C.C%2.6%25.3%26.7%29.9%313’4
.g.Corrmercla’77.6%76.2%72.3%7C.9%68.2%67.0%
ndus’a’IaT 2,4%12%2.4%14%1.9%1.7%
Table 5-12 C&ICumulativeAchlevable Potential by State,Selected Years
)L 1’Hi 1’)ê ‘)4.1rê
Baseline Forecast (1000 therm)
Washtngtor 67,722 68,107 68,790 69,944 7.,299 73,239
Idaho 27,702 28,002 28,700 29,733 31,910 32,239
Oregor 29,006 29,135 29,329 29,595 29,825 3,477
Total 124,429 125,244 126,819 129,319 132,094 135,976
Natur Gas Savings 1000 therm)
Wa5hington 655 1,365 3,906 8,096 11.251 13,015
Idaho 243 514 1.486 3.264 4,756 5,668
Oregon 133 293 395 1,953 3,064 3.739
Total 1,031 2,172 6,287 13,312 19,071 22,422
%ofTot C&l Savings______
Wash’9gn SS$%62.2%62.1%til.8%51D%56.D3
Catio 23.6 23.7%236’24.5%24.9 25.3%
Cregol 12.5%13.5%.4.2%14.1%16,1%
Global Energy Partners
n ErerNOC Company
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 71
Asista Utits Gas Corsorsaton Ponta Asseasme-it Cor,aorvaton PotenaI
Table 5-13 shows additional detail by state and sector for 2022,includIng the cumulative
economic and technical potential,as well as achievable potential.We note that although
potential as a percentage of baseline use varies from one sector to the next,results do not vary
greatly among the three states.
Table 5-13 CM Cumulative Potential Summary by Sectorand State.2022
Washington ciaho Oregon
Sr-ia I I a-g,—Smal Lar9e I .
Small I a I rd.
Total C&l
omrn,CDrnrn Corm,,Comm.ornm,Comm.
Baseline (1000 therm)
17.589 49,101 J 3,255 8,690 f A07 1,683 26,099 3,159 J 29,319
Cumulative Natural Gas SavIngs (1000 therm)
Achlevabie 1,425 6,477 193 581 2,578 105 1,550 382 21 13,312
onomic 1,693 7,062 203 711 2,843 110 1.924 418 22 14,986
TechnIcal 4,824 14,796 379 2,330 6,036 197 6,927 894 39 36,422
Cumulative Savings (%of Baseline)
Achlevabie 8.1%13.2%5.9%6.7%13.3%6.2%5.9%12.1%6.1%10.3%
Economic 9.6%14.4%6.2%8.2%14.7%6.6%7.4%13.2%6.4%11.6%
echnicat 27.4%30.1%11.6%26.8%31.1%11.7%26.5%28.3%11.7%28.2%
Potential by End Use,Technology,and Measure Type
Table 5-14 presents the C&I sector savings by end use and potential type.
•Space heating has the highest savings for technical potential at 20.0 mIllion therms in
2022.These savings would result from Installation of hIgh-efficiency equipment and
numerous thermal shell measures,HVAC control strategies,and retrocommlsslonlng.Many of
these measures are cost-effective,resulting In economic potential savings of 10.7 million
therms In 2022,or 53%of technical potential savings.
•Food service equipment offers technical potential savings at 2.9 millIon therms In 2022,
and because these equipment upgrades are mostly cost-effective,economic potential In that
year Is 2.7 millIon therms.
•Water heating,Including equipment upgrades,hot water saving fixtures,arid controls,has
2022 technical potential of 12.9 million therms,but because the equipment upgrades are
cost-Ineffective,economic potential of 1.3 mIllion therms Is only 10%of the technical
potential.
•Process equipment for industrial uses has technical potential savings of 0.5 million therms
In 2022,and economic potential In that year Is 0.3 millIon therms.
5-14 -.—www.ene’rloc.corn
72 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
AViStS Ut tics Gas Conservation Potential Assessment Conservation Potential
Table 5-14 C&I Cumulative Potential by End Use andPotential T)’pe (1000 therm)
‘4’‘4’
Ach:eva be 859 1,752 4,896 10,328 24,766 7,424
Space Heating Econom’c 662 1,442 4,636 10,728 :5,579 :8,895
Technical 1,306 2,877 8,952 20,071 27,393 31,405
Achevable 88 221 675 1113 1,647 2,133
WaterHeatrng Economic 75 193 699 1,257 1,821 2,398
Technical 1,210 2,786 6,795 12,917 19,307 20,723
Ac9 evab e 63 158 583 1,585 2,351 2,540
Food Econcr c 314 629 1,479 2,697 2,953 2,859Preparation
Technical 32:646 1,540 2,879 3,277 3,253
Achevable 21 41 133 286 307 325
Process Eroriomc 14 34 131 104 351 374
Technical 25 57 211 518 671 731
Ac,evai,e 0 0 0 C 0 0
Miscellaneous Ecorior”c 1 1 1 1 0 0
Technical 3 6 13 36 54 57
AchIevable 1,031 1,279 6,287 13,312 19,071 22,422
Totil Economic 1,065 2,299 6,945 14,986 20,704 24,527
TechnIcal 2,865 5,353 17,511 36,422 50,702 56,169
Table 5-15 and Table 5-16 present achievable potential savings for equipment measures and
non-equipment measures,respectively,
Table 5-15 C&Cumulative Achievable Potential,Equipment Measures (1000 thm)
•II4’I’J ‘‘
Purnace 32 84 361 1,031 1,959 2,385
Space Heating Boiler 60 149 472 928 1,419 2,114
CtterHeatirig 4 4 4 4 12 43
WaterHeating WaterHeater ----
ryer 15 37 137 381 533 654
Over 9 23 66 250 327 436
SroIar .---
Food P epratioi
GrIddle 6 16 53 156 264 306
‘ange 3 20 /5 212 326 !7C
Steamer 25 62 223 574 739 753
TOtS Equipment SavIngs 158 395 1,419 3,548 5,741 7,071
Global Errrj
Ar Er rrNC rD.r1,5-r,
5-15
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 73
Avsta Utiites Ge Conservator Fotenta Assessment -Cerservaton Potental
Table 5-16 C&ICumulative Achievable Potential,Non-equip.Measures (1000 dim)
•j.J,.t4.LAC’T1i ‘F)•‘Pb
Advanced New Cons tructon Designs 17 52 234 971 2,338 3,456
CustomMeasures ----133
Ene’gy ManagementSystem 252 497 1,100 2,056 2,812 2,927
Insulation -Ceiling 8 23 89 286 589 854
Irisulatior -Ductlrg ------
Insulation -Wall Cavity 4 8 135 326 703 959
Themnostat-.Cock/Progranrnable Sc sa 218 412 564 592
Windows -High Efficiency -----
Furnace-Maintenance ----52
Ductlng -Repair and Sealing ---
WaterHeattng-FaucetAeratora 75 184 540 70 740 774
Water Heating-Pipe Insulation ------
Water Heatlrg-TarkBlaiket/Irsu.ation 8 19 54 69 73 76
Water Heating-Hot Water Saver ------
Boler-Malnterance 140 273 876 1,832 1,898 1,876
Boiler -Hot Water Reset 122 235 729 1,428 1428 1.384
Boler-HIgl’E’f.HotWete’ClrcJ atlon 65 127 276 507 683 699
SpaceHeating-HeatRecoveryVent.112 220 484 888 1.193 1.243
Con,preiensIve Reocommisslonng ------
Comprehensive Commissioning -----
Process -Bi er Hot Water Reset 21 4’.133 286 307 325
Total,Non-equipment Measures 873 1,777 4,868 9,764 13,329 15,350
Total,All Measures 1,031 2,172 6,287 13,312 19,071 22,422
Based on the above,the primary sources of commercial sector achievable savings are as follows
frrrgy management systems and pogr4mrTJdb/tn thermostats,because they can bereadilyInstalled,account for about 27*of achievable potential In 2014.These controlsremainsignificantcontributorstocumulativepotential,with 2.5 million therms or 19%ofpotentialin2022.
•Boiler operating measures,Including maintenance,hot water reset,and efficient
circulation,together can provide 4,3 mIllion therms or about 29%of achievable potential In2022.
•Equipment upgrach’c for tin ,,aces.boilers,and unit heaters equal 2.0 mIllIon therms,or 15*of 2022 achIevable potential.
•Foudse,v,c e equipr’ent has an achievable potential by 2022 of 1.6 mIllion therms,or 12%of achievable potential.
5-16 ----www.enernocom
74 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
ABOUT GWBA[.
GIth B,ergy Part,ars is a eri-iar prodar of anargy and
enqr,rnan enneing and techncal serves to ublies
energy con-panies,research ccga-iizatoris,
govemmanregLjaty agencies and private ndLstry
Globá’s offerings range from strategic planning t.irn-key
program design and implementation and technology
applicabons
GIob is a whdly-owned sL.bsidary of EnerNOC Inc cormtted
to hping its dlen achieve strategic biness objectives with a
staff of world-dass experts state of the art teols,and provan
methodologies
clobal Erer-q P,tre,’
ArEnEr\OC Ccrrpsny
[e-mail]
2012 AvISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 75
76 II CHAPTER4 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 4.2 II ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES OVERVIEW
(OREGON JURISDICTION ONLY)
The methodology for determining avoided costs from reduced incremental natural gas usage considers
commodity and variable transportation costs only.These avoided cost streams do not include
environmental externality costs related to the gathering,transmission,distribution or end-use of natural
gas.
Per traditional economic theory and industry practice,an environmental externality factor is typically
added to the avoided cost when there is an opportunity to displace traditional supply-side resources with
an alternative resource with no adverse environmental impact.
REGULATORY GUIDANCE
The Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC)issued Order 93-965 (UM-424)to address how utilities
should consider the impact of environmental externalities in planning for future energy resources.The
Order required analysis on the potential natural gas cost impacts from emitting carbon dioxide (CO2)and
nitric-oxide (NOx).
The OPUC’s Order No.07-002 in Docket UM 1056 (Investigation Into Integrated Resource Planning)
established the following guideline for the treatment of environmental costs used by energy utilities that
evaluate demand-side and supply-side energy choices:
UM 1056,Guideline 8 -Environmental Costs
“Utilities should include,in their base-case analyses,the regulatory compliance costs they expect
for carbon dioxide (CO,),nitrogen oxides (NOx),sulfur oxides (SO2),and mercury (Hg)
emissions.Utilities should analyze the range ofpotential C02 regulatory costs in Order No.93-
695,from $0 -$40 (1990$).In addition,utilities shouldperform sensitivity analysis on a range of
reasonably possible cost addersfor nitrogen oxides (NOx),sulfur dioxide (S02),and mercury
(Hg),fapplicable.
In June 2008,the OPUC issued Order 08-338 (UM1302)which revised UM1056,Guideline 8.The
revised guideline requires the utility should construct a base case portfolio to reflect what it considers to
be the most likely regulatory compliance future for the various emissions.Additionally the guideline
requires the utility to develop several compliance scenarios ranging from the present C02 regulatory level
to the upper reaches of credible proposals and each scenario should include a time profile of CO2 costs.
The utility is also required to include a “trigger point”analysis in which the utility must determine at what
level of carbon costs its selection ofportfolio resources would be significantly different.
ANALYSIS
Unlike electric utilities,environmental cost issues rarely impact a natural gas utility’s supply-side resource
options.This is because the only supply-side energy resource is natural gas.The utility cannot choose
between say “dirty”coal-fired generation and “clean”wind energy sources.The supply-side implication
of environmental externalities generally relates to combustion of fuel to move or compress natural gas.
Avista’s direct gas distribution system infrastructure relies solely on the upstream line pressure of the
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 77
interstate pipeline transportation network to distribute natural gas to its customers and thus does not
directly combust fuels that result in any C02,NOx,S02,or Hg emissions.
Upstream gas system infrastructure (pipelines,storage facilities,and gathering systems),however,do
produce CO2 emissions via compressors used to pressurize and move natural gas.Accessing CO2
emissions data on these upstream activities to perform detailed meaningful analysis is challenging.In the
2009 Natural Gas IRP there was significant momentum regarding GHG legislation and the movement
towards the creation of carbon cap and trade markets or tax structure.Since then,the momentum has
slowed significantly.Where there is still a focus on reducing GHG emissions and improving the nation’s
carbon footprint,the timing of implementing a carbon cap and trade/tax framework has been delayed.
Additionally,the pricing level of the framework has been greatly reduced..Whichever structure
ultimately gets implemented,Avista believes the cost pass through mechanisms for upstream gas system
infrastructure will not make a difference in supply-side resource selection although the amount of cost
pass through could differ widely.
Table 4.2.1 summarizes a range of environmental cost adders we believe capture several compliance
futures including our expected scenario.The C02 cost adders reflect outlooks we obtained from one of
our consultants,and following discussion and feedback from the TAC,have been incorporated into our
Expected,Low Growth/High Price,and Alternate Planning Standard portfolios.
The guidelines also call for a trigger point analysis that reflects a “turning point”at which an alternate
resource portfolio would be selected at different carbon cost adders levels.Because natural gas is the only
supply resource applicable to LDC’s any alternate resource portfolio selection would be a result of
delivery methods of natural gas to customers.Conceptually,there could be differing levels of cost adders
applicable to pipeline transported supply versus in service territory LNG storage gas.From a practical
standpoint however,the differences in these relative cost adders would be very minor and would not
change supply-side resource selection regardless ofvarious carbon cost adder levels.We do acknowledge
there is influence to the avoided costs which would impact the cost effectiveness of demand-side
measures in the DSM business planning process.
CONSERVATON COST ADVANTAGE
For this IRP,we also incorporated a 10 percent environmental externality factor into our assessment of
the cost-effectiveness of existing demand-side management programs.Our assessment of prospective
demand-side management opportunities is based on an avoided cost stream that includes this 10 percent
factor.
Environmental externalities were evaluated in the IRP by adding the cost per therm equivalent of the
externality cost values to supply-side resources as described in OPUC Order No.93-965.Avista found
that the environmental cost adders had no impact on the company’s supply-side choices,although they
did impact the level of demand-side measures that could be cost-effective to acquire.
REGULATORY FILING
Avista will file revised cost-effectiveness limits (CELs)based upon the updated avoided costs available
from this IRP process within the prescribed regulatory timetable.
78 II CHAPTER 4 II APPENDICES
Table 4.2.1 Environmental Externalities Cost Adder
Analysis (2010$)
0z
2020 2025 2030 2035
$/ton $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 S 2,500
NOx Adder
$/therm
S/lb $1.25 $1.25 S 1.25 $1.25
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
0(I,
C.)
C0.0I
C.)
00‘1:;
0.xIii
$0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
$/ton $-$16.67 $21.05 $22.31
$/lb $-$0.0079 $0.0105 $0.0112
lbs/therm 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
C02 Adder
$/therm $-$0.10 $0.12 S 0.13
0I-
Total Adders
$/therm $0.01 $0.10 $0.13 $0.14
—2020 2025 2030 2035
S/ton $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 $2,500
S/lb $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
g NOx Adder
—S/therm S 0.01 S 0.01 $0.01 S 0.01
$/ton $40.00 $60.00 $85.00 $100.00
$/lb $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0425 $0.0500
lbs/therm 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
Z C02 Adder
S/therm $0.23 $0.35 $0.49 $0.58
Total Adders
12 $/therm $0.24 $0.36 $0.50 $0.59
—2020 2025 2030 2035
S/ton $500 $500 $500 $500
S/lb S 0.25 S 0.25 $0.25 S 0.25
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
NOx Adder
.S —$/therm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$/ton $-$15.73 $21.05 $22.31
$/Ib S -$0.0079 $0.0105 $0.0112
3 lbs/therm 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
C02 Adder
—S/therm S -S 0.09 $0.12 S 0.13
Total Adders
2 $/therm 5 0.00 $0.09 $0.12 $0.13
2012AVSTANATURALGASIRP II 1
APPENDIX 5.1 II CURRENT TRANSPORTATION/STORAGE RATES AND
ASSUMPTIONS
Rates in US$IDthIDay
Reservation Commodity Fuel Rate 3!Rate Change Assumptions
TransCanada Alberta System Firm Rates -
Postage Stamp Rates
AECo/NIT to ABC 0.1910 -0.00%Changes eery three years
AECo/NIT to ABC Winter Only 0.2388 -0.00%Changes ery three years
TransCanada BC System Firm Rates -
Postage Stamp Rates
ABC to Kingsgate 0.0990 0.0300 1.10%Changes eery three years
GTN FTS-1 Rates
Mileage Based -Representative Example
Kingsgate to Spokane 0.0931 0.0017 0.25%Changes eery fle years
Kingsgate to Medford 0.3376 0.0096 1.38%Changes ery five years
Meford Lateral 0.8244 -0.00%Changes eery fi.e years
Spectra EnergylWestcoast System Firm Rates -
Postage Stamp Rates
Station 2 to Huntington/Sumas 0.4112 -0.80%Changes eery three years
Williams NWP 41
Postage Stamp Rates
TF-1 1/0.41 00 0.03000 1.30%Changes eery 1I years
TF-2 1/0.4100 0.03000 1.30%Changes eery fi years
SGS-2F 2/0.4751 0.01734 0.52%Changes ery tle years
1/TF-1 based upon annual deliry capability.TF-2 based upon approximately 32 days of deliery capability
2/Not applicable for WA/ID Customers
3/Fuel retained in-kind
4/New rate effecti.e January 2013
2 II CHAPTER 5 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 5.2 II ALTERNATE SUPPLY SCENARIOS
Existing Resources Existing +Expected Available GTN Fully Subscribed
INPUT ASSUMPTIONS
Currently contracted
capacity net of long term Currently contracted capacity Currently contracted capacity
Resources releases net of long term releases net of long term releases
Currently ailable GTN
Capacity Release Recalls Capacity Release Recalls
NWP Expansions NWP Expansions
Satellite LNG Satellite LNG
Rates Current Rates Current Rates Current Rates
APPENDIX 6.1 II MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
EXPECTED PRICE
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 1
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Espected Case
Expected Case
Expected Cese
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
AECO
AECO
AEC0
AECO
AECO
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECO
AECO
AECO
AECO
AECO
AECO
AECo
AECO
AECO
AECo
AECo
AECO
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
201 7-2018
2018-20 19
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
2029-2030
2030-2031
$
$
S
$
S
S
Ss
S
$
S
S
$
$
S
$
S
S
S
S
2.82 $
3.51 $
3.85 $
398 $
4.10 $
4.29 $
4.52 $
470 $
4.81 $
4.91 $
4.90 $
4.92 $
4.97 $
494 $
5.06 $
5,08 $
5.06 $
5.11 $
5.15 $
5.19 $
2.88
3.58
3.86
3.99
4.16
4 31
4.52
4.69
4.75
4 89
4.74
4.91
4.77
4.87
4.90
4.85
4.89
4.96
4.91
5.01
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Expected Case
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Mahn
Maim
Maiirm
Mahn
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maimn
Maim
Maim
Maim
2010$
Scenario index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jut Aug Sep Oct
5 2.90 $2.73 $2.29 2.38 $2,49 $2.63 $2.69 $2.57 $2.47 $2.59
$3.04 $313 $337 3.52 $350 $3.51 $3.54 $354 $354 $3.57
5 3.76 $3.84 $3.85 3.70 $3.65 $3.68 $3.71 $3.71 $3.72 $3.745393$3.93 $3.97 3.85 $3.84 $389 $3.92 $3.91 $3.88 $3.89
$4.06 $4.06 $4.09 4.01 $4.02 $4.06 $4.08 $4.08 $4.07 $4.08
5 4.25 $424 $4.27 4.14 $4.19 $4.22 $4.25 $4.25 $4.25 $4.2654.40 $4.44 $4.49 4.35 $4.39 $4.43 $4.46 $4.47 $4.46 $4.47
5 4.58 $4.65 $4,67 4.52 $4.56 $4.59 $4.63 $4.64 $4.57 $458
5 4.67 $4.72 $4.78 4.61 $4.64 $4.68 $4.72 $4.73 $4.66 $4.67
$479 $485 $4.88 4.73 $417 $481 $4.85 $4.87 $468 $4.69
5 4.80 $4.84 $4.87 4.62 $4.66 $4.69 $4.72 $4.74 $4.70 $4.69
$4.84 $487 $489 4.79 $484 $4.89 $4.92 $494 $4.78 $4.78
5 4.89 $4.92 $4.94 4.65 $4.67 $4.74 $4.77 $4,79 $4.74 $4.75
5 4.86 $4.89 $4.91 4,74 $4.76 $481 $4.87 $4.89 $4.79 $4.80
5 4.98 $5.00 $5.03 4.77 $4.80 $4.86 $4.89 $4.91 $4.87 $4.8755.00 $5.03 $5.05 4.71 $4.74 $4.79 $482 $4,84 $4.82 $4.82
5 4.97 $5.00 $5.03 4.75 $4.80 $4.83 $4.87 $4.89 $4.85 $4.8655.02 $5.05 $5.08 4.79 $4.82 $4.86 $4.90 $4.92 $4.91 $4.9155.06 $5.10 $5.13 4.76 $4.79 $4.84 $4.90 $4.91 $4.91 $4.92S5.06 $513 $5.16 4.86 $4.89 $4.96 $5.00 $5.02 $5.01 $5.02
2011-2012 $3.01 $2.97 $2.48 $3.00 $3.06 $2.52 $2.80 $2.94 $3.01 $2.89 $2.78 $2.912012-2013 $3.34 $3.45 $369 $3.83 $387 $3.79 $382 $3.82 $386 $3.87 $386 $3.892013-2014 $4.06 $4.18 $4.18 $4.19 $4.15 $3.98 $3.99 $4.02 $4.05 $4.07 $4.09 $4.122014-2015 $4.28 $4.31 $4.34 $4,34 $4.29 $4.15 $4.17 $4.19 $4.21 $4.24 $4.26 $4.292015-2016 $4.44 $4.48 $4.51 $4.52 $4.47 $4.37 $4.38 $4.40 $4.45 $4.47 $4.48 $4.512016-2017 $4.67 $4.69 $4.71 $4.74 $4.62 $4.55 $4.58 $4.61 $4.64 $4.66 $4.69 $4.712017-2018 $4.88 $4.93 $4.95 $4.98 $4.87 $4.80 $4.82 $4.85 $4.90 $4.92 $4.94 $4.972018-2019 $5.08 $515 $5.15 $518 $5.05 $4.95 $4.95 $498 $5.07 $5.10 $5.07 $5.092019-2020 $5.15 $5.24 $5.19 $5.22 $5.10 $4.97 $5.01 $5.04 $5.13 $5.16 $5.13 $5.152020-2021 $5.25 $5.32 $5.33 $536 $5.23 $5.07 $5.12 $5.15 $5.23 $5.26 $519 $5.212021-2022 $5.30 $5.36 $5.33 $5.36 $5.09 $5.01 $5.05 $5.08 $5.12 $5.16 $5.17 $5.192022-2023 $5.32 $5.36 $5.38 $5.41 $526 $5.19 $5.22 $5.25 5 5.31 $5.33 $5.26 $5.29
2023-2024 $5.44 $5.48 $5.44 $5.47 $5.16 $5.10 $5.05 $5.12 $5.19 $5.23 $5.18 $5.242024-2025 $5.40 $5.46 $5.44 $5.47 $5.30 $5.20 $5.14 $5,19 $5.28 $5.31 $5.26 $5.312025-2026 $5.52 $5.57 $5.55 $5.58 $5.31 $5.22 $5.23 $5.28 $5.32 $5.35 $5.37 $5.402026-2027 $5.54 $5.59 $5.57 $5.61 $5.26 $5.17 $5.18 $5.23 $5.27 $5.29 $5.32 $5.352027-2028 $5.49 $5.55 $5.53 $5.56 $5.30 $5.20 $5.23 $5.27 $5.31 $5.34 $5.37 $5.402028-2029 $555 $5.60 $5.59 $5.63 $537 $5.24 $5.26 $5.30 $5.35 $5.38 $5.41 $5.442029-2030 $5.56 $5.64 $5.62 $5.66 $5.33 $5.24 $5.26 $5.30 $5.35 $5.38 $5.41 $5.472030-2031 $5.60 $5.66 $5.68 $5.72 $5.42 $5.33 $5.36 $541 $5.46 $5.49 $5.52 $5.57
Expected Case Rockies 2011-2012 $2.92 $2.94 $2.44 $2.96 $3.03 $2.49 $2.73 $2.86 $2.93 $2.81 $2.71 $2.83ExpectedCaseRockies2012-2013 $3.25 $3.36 $361 $3.75 $3.79 $3.71 $374 $3.75 $3.79 $3.79 $3.79 $3.81ExpectedCaseRockies2013-2014 $3.98 $4.09 $4.09 $4.10 $4.07 $3.90 $3.92 $3,94 $3.97 $3.99 $4.01 $4.04ExpectedCaseRockies2014-2015 $4.19 $4.22 $4.25 $4.26 $4.21 $4.07 $4.09 $4.11 $4.13 $4.16 $4 18 $4.21ExpectedCaseRockies2015-2016 $4.35 $4.39 $4.42 $4.43 $4.38 $4.29 $4.30 $4.32 $4.37 $4.39 $4.39 $4.42ExpectedCaseRockies2016-2017 $458 $4.59 $4.62 $4,64 $4.53 $4.47 $4.50 $4.52 $4.56 $4.58 $4,60 $4.63ExpectedCaseRockies2017-2018 $4.79 $4.84 $4.86 $4.89 $4.77 $4.72 $4.74 $4.76 $4.81 $4.84 $4.85 $4.88ExpectedCaseRockies2018-2019 $4.98 $5.05 $506 $508 $4.96 $4.87 $487 $4.90 $4.97 $4.99 $4.98 $5.00ExpectedCaseRockies2019-2020 $5.01 $5.07 $5.06 $5.09 $4.98 $4.86 $4.84 $4.86 $4.91 $4.93 $4.91 $4.96ExpectedCaseRockies2020-2021 $5.08 $5.16 $5.15 $5.18 $5.09 $4.95 $4.94 $4.97 $5.04 $5.05 $4.90 $4.94ExpectedCaseRockies2021-2022 $5.06 $5.13 $5.11 $5.14 $4.92 $4.79 $4.80 $4.83 $4.68 $4.90 $4.86 $4.89ExpectedCaseRockies2022-2023 $5.04 $5.11 $5.11 $5.14 $5.04 $4.89 $4.91 $4,93 $4.98 $5.01 $4.90 $4,93ExpectedCaseRockies2023-2024 $5.04 $5.11 $5.06 $5.09 $4.81 $4.74 $4.69 $4.71 $4.80 $4.83 $4.80 $4.85ExpectedCaseRockies2024-2025 $4.95 $5.05 $5.05 $5.08 $4.89 $4.70 $4.64 $4.66 $4.76 $4.79 $478 $4.84ExpectedCaseRockies2025-2026 $5.17 $5.27 $5.29 $5.32 $5.06 $4.96 $4.97 $5.00 $5.07 $5.10 $5.08 $5.10ExpectedCaseRockies2026-2027 $5.21 $5.29 $5.28 $5.30 $4.98 $4.87 $4.90 $4.92 $499 $5.01 $5.00 $5.02ExpectedCaseRockies2027-2028 $5.14 $5.22 $5.22 $5.23 $4.96 $4.88 $4.90 $4.93 $5.00 $5.03 S 4.99 $5.01ExpectedCaseRockies2028-2029 $5.13 $523 $5.22 $5.25 $4.97 $4.89 $4.89 $4.92 $5.01 $5.04 $5.02 $5.04ExpectedCaseRockies2029-2030 $5.13 $5.22 $5.21 $5.24 $4.89 $4.83 $4.85 $4.88 $4.95 $4.97 $4.99 $5.02ExpectedCaseRockies2030-2031 $5.10 $5.21 $5.21 $5.25 $4.94 $4,90 $493 $4.96 $5.03 $5.05 $5.05 $5.08
EXPECTED PRICE
2 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.1 II MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
2010$
Scenario Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Expected Case Slanfietd 2011-2012 $295 $2.97 $2.45 $2.97 $2.95 $2.48 $2.72 $2.86 $2.93 $2.81 $2.67 $2.79
Expected Case Stanteld 2012-2013 $324 $334 $368 $3.72 $3.78 $371 $374 $3.74 $3.78 $3.79 $3.75 $377
Expected Case Stanttetd 2013-2014 $3.97 $4.07 $4.07 $4.08 $4.06 $3.89 $3.89 $3.92 $3.95 $3.97 $3.97 $3.99
Espected Case Stanttetd 2014-2015 $4.16 $4.18 $422 $4.23 $4.20 $4.04 $4,04 $4.08 $4.11 $4.12 $4.13 $4.16
Expected Case Stanfietd 2015-2016 $4.31 $4.34 $4.37 $4.39 $4.37 $4.23 $4.24 $4.27 $4.31 $4.33 $4.34 $4.37
Expected Case Stanfield 2016-2017 $4.54 $4.54 $4.57 $4.60 $4.53 $4.41 $4.44 $4.47 $4.50 $4.52 $4.54 $4 56
Expected Case Stanfleld 2017-2018 $4.73 $4.77 $4.80 $4.83 $4.74 $4.64 $4.67 $4.70 $4.74 $4.77 $4.77 $4.80
Expected Case Stanfleld 2018-2019 $4.92 $4.98 $5.12 $5.15 $4.92 $4,80 $4.81 $4.83 $4.90 $4.92 $4.90 $5.04
Expected Case Stenttetd 2019-2020 $5.11 $5.07 $5.18 $5.21 $4.98 $4.84 $4.86 $4.90 $4.96 $4.98 $4.95 $4.97
Expected Case Stanfleld 2020-2021 $5.11 $5.30 $5.33 $536 $5.12 $4.96 $4.98 $5.02 $5.08 $5.10 $5.00 $5.03
Expected Case Stenlield 2021-2022 $5.27 $5.34 $5.32 $5.36 $4.98 $4.86 $4.89 $4.92 $4.96 $4.99 $4.98 $5.01
Expected Case Stanfleld 2022-2023 $5.30 $5.33 $5.37 $540 $5.15 $5.04 $5.07 $5.10 $5,13 $5.16 $5.07 $5,10
Expected Case Stantteld 2023-2024 $5.39 $5.43 $5.44 $5.47 $5.03 $4.93 $4.90 $4.96 $5.02 $5.05 $5.00 $5.05
ExpectedCaae Stanfleld 2024-2025 $5.35 $5.41 $5.42 $5.45 $5.16 $5.04 $4.99 $504 $5.11 $5.14 $5.08 $5.11
Expected Case Stanfleld 2025-2026 $5.47 $5.52 $5.54 $5.57 $5.30 $5.06 $5.06 $5.11 $5.15 $5.17 $5.18 $5.21
Expected Case Stanfleld 2026-2027 $5.51 $5.56 $5.57 $5.60 $5.25 $5.01 $5.01 $506 $5.09 $5.11 $6.13 $5.16
Expected Case Stanfleld 2027-2028 $5.46 $5.53 $5.52 $5.56 $5.29 $5.05 $5.06 $5.10 $5.14 $5.16 $5.18 $5.20
Expected Case Stanfleld 2028-2029 $5.52 $5.58 $559 $5.62 $5.37 $5.09 $5.10 $5,13 $5.17 $5.20 $5.22 $5.25
Expected Case Stanfleld 2029-2030 $5.55 $5.62 $5.62 $5.65 $5.32 $5.08 $5.09 $5.13 $5.17 $5.20 $5.22 $5.28
ExpectedCase StanSeld 2030-2031 $5.58 $5.65 $5.67 $5.71 $5.42 $5.17 $&31 $5.24 $528 $5.31 $5.33 $5.38
Expected Case Sumss 2011-2012 $3.10 $2.97 $2.48 $3.00 $2.95 $2.43 $2.59 $2.69 $2.79 $2.67 $2.53 $2.73
Expected Case Sumas 2012-2013 $3.44 $3.55 $379 $3.93 $3.87 $3.62 $3.58 $359 $3.63 $3.64 $3.61 $368
Expected Case Sumas 2013-2014 $4.17 $4.28 $4.29 $4.30 $4.15 $3.75 $3.73 $3.77 $3.79 $3.80 $3.76 $3.80
Expected Case Sumas 2014-2015 $4.38 $441 $4.45 $446 $429 $3.89 $3.88 $3.93 $396 $3.95 $3.92 $394
Expected Case Sumas 2015-2016 $4.54 $4.57 $4.61 $4.63 $4.46 $4.06 $4.06 $4.10 $4.13 $4.13 $4.12 $4.13
EspectedCase Sumas 2016-2017 $4.77 $476 $4.81 $484 $462 $4.20 $4.24 $427 $4.30 $4.31 $4.31 $432
Expected Case Sumas 2017-2018 $4.98 $5.02 $5.05 $5,08 $4.59 $4.41 $4.45 $4.49 $4.52 $4.54 $4,53 $4.54
Expected Case Sumas 2018-2019 $4.94 $5.24 $5.27 $5.30 S 4.88 $4.69 $4,70 $4 66 $4.69 $469 $4.62 $4.65
Expected Case Sutnas 2019-2020 $4.77 $4.83 $5.33 $5.36 $4.98 $4.75 $4.73 $4.74 $4.81 $4.82 $4.76 $4.78
Espected Case Sumas 2020-2021 $5,14 $5.34 $5.38 $5.41 $5.26 $4.85 $478 $480 $4.93 $490 $4,70 $4.81
Expected Case Sumss 2021-2022 $5.32 $5.39 $5.42 $5.46 $5.13 $4.74 $4.68 $4.68 $4.79 $4.79 $4.71 $4,84
Expected Case Sumas 2022-2023 $5.35 $5.38 $5.42 $5.45 $530 $4.92 $4.87 $488 $4.99 $4.96 $4.78 $4 88
Expected Case Sumss 2023-2024 $5.44 $5.48 $5.51 $5.52 $5.18 $4.79 $4.70 $4.73 $4.84 $4.82 $4.74 $4.87
Expected Case Sumas 2024-2025 $5.40 $5.46 $5.49 $5.53 $5 31 $4.89 $4.79 $4.80 $4.99 $4.92 $4.81 $4.94
Expected Case Sumas 2025-2026 $5.52 $5.57 $5.61 $5.64 $5.35 $4.92 $4.84 $4.74 $5.02 $4.96 $4.90 $5.04
Expected Case Sumas 2026-2027 $5.56 $5.63 $5.67 $5.70 $5.30 $4.86 $4.80 $4.67 $4.96 $4.91 $4.86 $4.98
Expected Case Sumas 2027-2028 $5.51 $5.59 $5.62 $5.66 $5.34 $4.90 $4.66 $4.71 $5.01 $4.97 $4.88 $5.03
Expected Case Sumas 2028-2029 $5.57 $5.76 $5.80 $5.83 $5.42 $4.94 $4.89 $4.74 $5.04 $5.06 $4.97 $5.08
Expected Case Sumas 2029-2030 $5.60 $5.81 $5.84 $5.87 $5.37 $4.92 $4.86 $4.72 $5.04 $5.05 $5.03 $5.09
Expected Case Sumas 2030-2031 ,$5.63 $5.97 $6.01 $6,04 $5.47 $5.02 $4.96 $4.84 $5.15 $5.16 $5.13 $5.20
APPENDIX 6.1 II MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
HIGH GROwTH Low PRICE
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 3
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
Rockies
2011-20 12
2012-2013
2013-20 14
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
201 7-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
2029-2030
2030-2031
$2.94
$3.82
$4.02
$4.19
$4.40
$4.61
$4.85
$4.98
$5.04
$5.15
$5.08
$5.25
$5.12
$5.19
$5.28
$523
$5.27
$5.30
$5.30
$5.41
$3.01 $2.89 $2.78 $2.91
$3.86 $3.87 $3.86 $3.89
$4.05 $4.07 $4.09 $4.12
$4.21 $4.24 $4.26 $4.29
$4.45 $4.47 $4.48 $4.51
$4.64 $466 $4.69 $4.71
$4.90 $4.92 $4.94 $4.97
$5.07 $5.10 $5.07 $5.09
$5.13 $5.16 $5,13 $5,15
$5.23 $5.26 $5.19 $5.21
$5.12 $5.16 $5.17 $5.19
$5.31 $5.33 $5.26 $5.29
$5.19 $5.23 $5.18 $5.24
$528 $5.31 $5.26 $5.31
$5.32 $5.35 $5.37 $5.40
$5.27 $529 $5.32 $5.35
$5.31 $5.34 $5.37 $5.40
$5.35 $5.38 $5.41 $5.4.4
$5.35 $5.38 $5.41 $5.47
$546 $5A9 $5.52 $557
$2.83
$3.81
$4.04
$4,21
$4.42
4.63
4.88
5.00
4.96
4,94
4.89
4 93
4.85
4.84
5.10
5.02
5.01
5.04
5.02
5.08
2010$
Scenario Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
3 2.90 3 1(3 3 2.29 3 2.82 3
$3.04 $3.13 $3.37 $3.51 $
$3.76 $3.84 $3.85 $3.85 $
$3.93 $3.93 $3.97 $3.98 $
$4.06 $4.06 $4.09 $4,10 $
$425 $4.24 $4.27 $4.29 $
$4.40 $4.44 $4.49 $4.52 $
$4.58 $4.85 $4.67 $4.70 $
$4.67 $4.72 $4.78 $4.81 $
$4.79 $485 $4.88 $4.91 $
$4.80 $4.84 $4,87 $4.90 $
$4.84 $4.87 $4.89 $4.92 $
$4.89 $4.92 $4.94 $4.97 $
$486 $4.89 $4.91 $4.94 $
$4.98 $5.00 $5.03 $5.06 $
$5.00 $5.03 $5.05 $5.08 $
$4.97 $5.00 $5.03 $5.06 $
$5.02 $5.05 $5.08 $5.11 $
$5.06 $5.10 $5.13 $5.15 $
$5.06 $5.13 $5.16 $5.19 $
2.66 3 2.38 3 149 3 2.63 3 2.69 3 2.5(3 2.4(3 2.59
3.58 $3.52 $3.50 $3.51 $3.54 $3.54 $3.54 $3.57
3.86 $3.70 $3.65 $3.68 $3.71 $3.71 $3.72 $3,74
3.99 $3.85 $3.84 $3.89 $3 92 $3.91 $3.88 $3.89
4.16 $4.01 $4.02 $4.06 $4.08 $4.08 $4.07 $4.08431$4.14 $419 $4.22 $425 $425$425$426
4.52 $4.35 $4.39 $4.43 $4.46 $4.47 $4.46 $4.47
4.69 $4.52 $4.56 $4.59 $4.63 $464 $4.57 $458
4.75 $4.61 $4.64 $4.68 $4.72 $4.73 $4.66 $4.67
4.89 $4.73 $4.77 $4.81 $4.85 $4.87 $4.68 $4.69
4.74 $4.62 $4.66 $4.69 $4.72 $4.74 $4.70 $4.69
4.91 $4.79 $4.84 $489 $4.92 $4.94 $478 $478
4.77 $4.65 $4.67 $4.74 $4.77 $4.79 $4.74 $4.75
4.87 $4.74 $476 $4.81 $487 $4,89 $4.79 $480
4.90 $4.77 $4.80 $4.86 $4.89 $4.91 $4.87 $4.87
4.85 $4.71 $4.74 $4.79 $4.82 $484 $4.82 $4.824.89 $4.75 $4.80 $4.83 $4.87 $4.89 $4.85 $4.86
4.96 $4.79 $4.82 $4.86 $4.90 $4.92 $4.91 $4.91
4.91 $4.76 $4.79 $4.84 $4.90 $4.91 $4.91 $4.92
5.01 $4.86 $4.89 $4.96 $5.00 $5.02 $5.01 $5.02
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECO
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECO
AECO
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECo
AECO
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maihi
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Maim
Malirr
Maim
Maim
Malirm
Maim
Maim
Maim
Malirm
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-20 14
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
2017-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
2029-2030
2030-2031
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
2017-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
2029-2030
2030-2031
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pflce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Pnce
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
High Growth Low Price
$3.01 $2.97 $2.48 $3.00 $3.06 $2.52 $2.80
$3.34 $3.45 $3.69 $3.83 $3.87 $3.79 $3.82
$4.06 $4.18 $4.18 $4.19 $4.15 $3.98 $3.99
$4.28 $4.31 $4.34 $4.34 $4.29 $4.15 $4.17
$4.44 $4.48 $4,51 $4.52 $4.47 $4.37 $4.38
$4.67 $469 $4.71 $4.74 $462 $4.55 $4.58
$4.88 $4.93 $4.gs $4.98 $4.87 $4.80 $4.82
$508 $5.15 $5.15 $5.18 $5.05 $495 $495
$5.15 $5.24 $5.19 $5.22 $5.10 $4,97 $5.01
$5.25 $5.32 $5.33 $5.36 $5.23 $5.07 $5.12
$5.30 $5.36 $5.33 $5.36 $5.09 $5.01 $5.05
$5.32 $5.36 $5.38 $5.41 $5.26 $5.19 $5.22
$5.44 $5,48 $5.44 $5.47 $5.16 $5.10 $5.05
$5.40 $5.46 $5.44 $547 $5.30 $5.20 $5.14
$5.52 $5.57 $5.55 $5.58 $5.31 $5.22 $5.23
$5.54 $559 $5.57 $5.61 $526 $517 $518
$5.49 $5.55 $5.53 $5.56 $5.30 $5.20 $5.23
$5.55 $5.60 $5.59 $5.63 $5.37 $5.24 $5.26
$5.56 $5,64 $5.62 $5.66 $5.33 $5.24 $5.26
$5.60 $5.66 $5.68 $5.72 $5.42 $5.33 $5.36
$2.92 $2,94 $2.44 $2.96 $3.03 $2.49 $2.73 $2.86 $2.93 $2.81 $2.71
$3.25 $3.36 $361 $3.75 $3.79 $3.71 $3.74 $3.75 $3.79 $3.79 $3.79$3.98 $4.09 $4.09 $4.10 $4.07 $3.90 $3.92 $3,g4 $3,97 $3.99 $4.01
$419 $4.22 $4.25 $4.26 $4.21 $4.07 $4.09$411 $413 $416 $418
$4.35 $4.39 $4.42 $4.43 $4.38 $4.29 $4.30 $4.32 $4.37 $4.39 $4.39$4.58 $4.59 $4.62 $4.64 $4.53 $4.47 $450 $4.52 $4.56 $4.58 $4.60 $$4.79 $4.84 $4.86 $4.89 $4.77 $4.72 $4.74 $4.76 $4.81 $4.84 $4.85 $
$4.98 $5.05 $506 $508 $496 $487 $4.87 $4,90 $4.97 $4.99 $4.98 $$5.01 $5.07 $5.06 $5.09 $4.98 $4.86 $4.84 $4.86 $4.91 $4.93 $4.91 $$5.08 $5.16 $5.15 $5.18 $5.09 $4.95 $4.94 $4.97 $5.04 $5.05 $4.90 $$5.06 $5.13 $5.11 $5.14 $4.92 $4.79 $4.80 $4.83 $4.88 $4.90 $4.86 $$504 $5.11 $5.11 $5.14 $5.04 $4.89 $4.91 $4.93 $4.98 $5.01 $4.90 $$5.04 $5.11 $5.06 $5.09 $4.81 $4.74 $4.69 $4.71 $4,80 $4.83 $4.80 $$495 $5.05 $5.05 $5.08 $4.89 $4.70 $4.64 $4.66 $416 $419 $4.78 $$5.17 $5.27 $5.29 $5.32 $5.06 $4.96 $4.97 $5.00 $507 $5.10 $5.08 $$5.21 $5.29 $5.28 $5.30 $4.98 $4.87 $4.90 $4.92 $499 $5.01 $500 $$5.14 $5.22 $5.22 $5.23 $4.96 $4.88 $4.90 $4.93 $5.00 $5.03 $4,99 $$5.13 $5.23 $5.22 $5.25 $4.97 $4.89 $4.89 $4.92 $5.01 $5.04 $5.02 $$5.13 $5.22 $5.21 $5.24 $4.89 $4.83 $4.85 $4.88 $4,95 $4.97 $4.99 $$5.10 $5.21 $5.21 $5.25 $4.94 $4.90 $4.93 $4.96 $5.03 $5.05 $5.05 $
4 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.1 II MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE
2010$
ScenarIo Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
High Growth Low Price Stanfield 2011-2012 $2.95 $2.97 $2.45 $2.97 $2.95 $2.48 $2.72 $2.86 $2.93 $2.81 $2.67 $2.79
High Growth Low Price SlanlIeld 2012-2013 $324 $3.34 $358 $3.72 $378 $3.71 $3 74 $3.74 $3.78 $3.79 $3.75 $3.77
High Growth Low Price Stanfleld 2013-2014 $3.97 $4.07 $4.07 $4.08 $4.06 $3.89 $3.89 $3.92 $3.95 $3.97 $3.97 $3.99
High Growth Low Price Starifleld 2014-2015 $4.16 $4.18 $422 $4.23 $4.20 $4.04 $4.04 $4.08 $4.11 $4.12 $4.13 $4.16
High Growth Low Pflce Stanfleld 2015-2016 $4.31 $4.34 $4.37 $4.39 $4.37 $4.23 $4.24 $4.27 $4.31 $4.33 $4.34 $4.37
High Growth Low Price Stanfield 2016-2017 $4.54 $4.54 $4 57 $4.60 $4.53 $4.41 $4.44 $4.47 $4.50 $4.52 $4.54 $4.56
High Growth Low Pncc Sianfield 2017-2018 $4.73 $4.77 $4.80 $4.83 $4.74 $4.64 $4.67 $4.70 $4.74 $4.77 $4.77 $4.80
High Growth Low Price Stanleld 2018-2019 $4.92 $4.98 $5.12 $5.15 $4.92 $4.80 $481 $4.83 $490 $492 $490 $5.04
High Growth Low Price Starifield 2019-2020 $5.11 $5.07 $5.18 $5.21 $4.98 $4.84 $4.86 $4.90 $4,96 $4.98 $4.95 $4.97
High Growth Low Price Stanfield 2020-2021 $5.11 $5.30 $5.33 $536 $5.12 $4.96 $4.98 $5.02 $508 $5.10 $5.00 $5.03
High Growth Low Pnce Stanfletd 2021-2022 $5.27 S 5.34 $5.32 $5.36 $4.98 $4.86 $4.89 $4.92 $4.96 $4.99 $4.98 $5.01
High Growth Low Price Starifietd 2022-2023 $5.30 $5.33 $5.37 $5.40 $5.15 $504 $5.07 $5.10 $513 $5.16 $5.07 $510
High Growth Low Pnce Stanrield 2023-2024 $5.39 $5.43 $5.44 $5.47 $5.03 $4.93 $4.90 $4.96 $5.02 $5.05 $5.00 $5.05
High Growth Low Price Stanfleld 2024-2025 $535 $5.41 $5.42 $5.45 $5.16 $5.04 $4.99 $5.04 $5.11 $5.14 $5.08 $5.11
High Growth Low Price Sianlteld 2025-2026 $5.47 $5.52 $5.54 $5.57 $5.30 $5.06 $5.06 $5.11 $5.15 $5.17 $5.18 $5.21
High Growth Low Price Stanfleld 2026-2027 $5.51 $5.56 $5.57 $5.60 $5.25 $5.01 $5.01 $5.06 $5.09 $5.11 $5.13 $5.16
High Growth Low Pnce Stanfleld 2027-2028 $5.46 $5.53 $5.52 $5.56 $5.29 $5.05 $5.06 $5.10 $5.14 $5.16 $5.18 $5.20
High Growth Low Price Stanfield 2028-2029 $5.52 $5.58 $5.59 $5.62 $5.37 $5.09 $5.10 $5.13 $5.17 $5.20 $5.22 $5.25
High Growth Low Price Stanfield 2029-2030 $5.55 $5.62 $5.62 $5.65 $5.32 $5.08 $5.09 $5.13 $5.17 $5.20 $5.22 $5.26
High Growth Low Price Stanffeld 2030-2031 $5.58 $5.65 $5.67 $5.71 $5.42 $5.17 $531 $5.24 $5.28 $5.31 $5.33 $5.38
High Growth Low Price Sumac 201 1-2012 $3.10 $2.97 $2.48 $3.00 $2.95 $2.43 $2.59 $2.69 $2.79 $2.67 $2.53 $2.73
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2012-2013 $3.44 $3.55 $3.79 $393 $3.87 $3.62 $3.58 $3.59 $363 $364 $3.61 $3.68
HighGrowthLowPrice Sumac 2013-2014 $4.17 $4.28 $4.29 $4.30 $4.15 $3.75 $3.73 $3.77 $3.79 $3.80 $3.76 $3.80
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2014-2015 $4.38 $4.41 $4.45 $4.46 $4.29 $3.89 $3.88 $3.93 $396 $395 $3.92 $3.94
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2015-2016 $4.54 $4.57 $4.61 $4.63 $4.46 $4.06 $4.06 $4.10 $4.13 $4.13 $4.12 $4.13
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2016-2017 $4.77 $4.78 $4.81 $4.84 $4.62 $4.20 $4.24 $4.27 $4.30 $4.31 $4.31 $4.32
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2017-2018 $4.98 $5.02 $5.05 $5.08 $4.59 $4.41 $4.45 $4.49 $4.52 $4.54 $4.53 $4.54
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2018-2019 $4.94 $5.24 $5.27 $5.30 $488 $4.69 $4.70 $4.66 $4.69 $4.69 $4.62 $4.65
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2019-2020 $4.77 $4.83 $5.33 $5.36 $4.98 $4.75 $4.73 $4.74 $4.81 $4.82 $4.76 $4.78
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2020-2021 $5.14 $5.34 $5.38 $5.41 $5.26 $4.85 $4.78 $480 $4.93 $4.90 $4.70 $4.81
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2021-2022 $5.32 $5.39 $5.42 $5.46 $5.13 $4.74 $4,68 $4.68 $4.79 $4.79 $4.71 5 4.84
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2022-2023 $5.35 $5.38 $542 $5.45 $5.30 $4.92 $4 87 $488 $4.99 $4.96 $4.78 $4.88
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2023-2024 $5.44 $5.48 $5.51 $5.52 $5.18 $4.79 $4.70 $4.73 $4.84 $4.82 $4.74 $4.87
HighGrowthLowPrice Sumac 2024-2025 $540 $5.46 $549 $553 $5.31 $489 $4.79 $480 $4.99 $492 $4.81 $494
High Growth Low Pnce Sumac 2025-2026 $5.52 $5.57 $5.61 $5.64 $5.35 $4.92 $4.84 $4.74 $5.02 $4.96 $4.90 $5.04
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2026-2027 $556 $5.63 $5.67 $5.70 $5.30 $4.86 $4.80 $467 $4.96 $4.91 $486 $4.96
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2027-2028 $5.51 $5.59 $5.62 $5.66 $5.34 $4.90 $4.86 $4.71 $5.01 $4.97 $4.88 $5.03
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2028-2029 $5.57 $5.76 $560 $5.83 $542 $4.94 $489 $4.74 $5.04 $506 $4.97 $5.08
High Growth Low Pnce Sumac 2029-2030 $5.60 $5.81 $5.84 $5.87 $5.37 $4.92 $4.86 $4.72 $5.04 $5.05 $5.03 $5.09
High Growth Low Price Sumac 2030-2031 $5.63 $5.97 $6.01 $6.04 $5.47 $5.02 $4.96 $4.84 $5.15 $5.16 $5.13 $5.20
APPENDIX 6.1 II MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
Low GROWTH HIGH PRICE
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 5
2010$
Scenario Index GasYear Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Low Growth High Price AECa 2011-2012 3.13 $2.97 $2.49 $2.59 $3.99 $3.92 $3.87 $3.94 $3.98 $3.99 4.04 $4.08LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2012-2013 4.39 $4.63 $508 $505 $5.04 $481 $4.78 $4.80 $483 $4.86 4.89 $4.94LowGrowthHighPriceAECO2013-2014 5.24 $5.46 $6.02 $5.99 $6.00 $5.66 $5.60 $5.65 $5.67 $5.69 5.71 $5.16LowGrowthHighPriceAECO2014-2015 6.11 $6.36 $7.14 $7.10 $7,05 $6.69 $667 $6 73 $6.76 $6.77 6.76 $680LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2015-2016 7.21 $7.46 $7.57 $7.53 $7.50 $7.10 $7.10 $7.12 $7.15 $7.17 7.21 $7.26LowGrowthHighPriceAECO2016-2017 7.63 $7.93 $8.15 $8.10 $8.06 $7.58 $7.60 $7.61 $7.62 $7.64 7.73 $7.78LowGrowthHighPnceAECo2017-2018 7.79 $8.11 $8.35 $8.30 $8.25 $7.78 $7.80 $7.83 $7.79 $7.83 $7.91 $7.99LowGrowthHighPriceAECO2018-2019 8.00 $837 $6.58 $8,54 $8.51 $8.00 $8.02 $6.05 $7.99 $8.03 8.11 $6.25LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2019-2020 8.23 $8.61 $8.85 $8.80 $8.73 $8.23 $8.24 $8.24 $8.21 $8.25 8.37 $8.49LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2020-2021 848 $8.89 $9.10 $9.05 $9.00 $8.50 $851 $8.49 $8.48 $8.52 8.66 $878LowGrowthHighPnceAECo2021-2022 $8.77 $9.16 $9.36 $9.31 $9.22 $8.72 $8.74 $6.76 $8.73 $8.78 8.94 $9.02LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2022-2023 $9.05 $9.35 $9.55 $9.49 $9.44 $8.95 $898 $896 $8.95 $901 9.15 $9.23LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2023-2024 $9.21 $9.61 $9.90 $9.64 $9.62 $9.33 $9.33 $9.36 $9.32 $9.38 $9.46 $9.59LowGrowthHighPriceAECO2024-2025 $9.58 $9.94 $10.13 $10.07 $10.06 $9.54 $9.53 $956 $9.55 $9.60 $9.68 $9.82LowGrowthHighPnceAECo2025-2026 $9.89 $10.28 $10.78 $10.71 $10.67 $10.13 $10.15 $10.15 $10.14 $10.20 $10.35 $10.48LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2026-2027 $10,48 $10.91 $11 29 $11.24 $11.19 $10.64 $10.65 $1065 $10.62 $10.69 $10.88 $10.99LowGrowthHighPeceAECo2027-2028 $11.00 $11.45 $11.93 $11.88 $11.81 $11.20 $11.22 $11.23 $11.19 $11.26 $11.51 $11.60LowGrowthHighPrtceAECo2028-2029 S 11.62 $12.08 $12.56 $12.48 $1246 $11.80 $11.81 $11.81 $11.80 $11.87 $12.00 $12.18LowGrowthHighPnceALCo2029-2030 $12.20 $12.69 $13.27 $13.20 $13.16 $12.50 $12.51 $12.51 $12.50 $12.57 $12.73 $12.89LowGrowthHighPriceAECo2030-2031 $12.90 $13.45 $13.30 $13.23 $13.17 $12.50 $12.51 $12.55 $12.51 $12.59 $12.76 $12.94
Low Growth High Price MaIm 2011-2012 $3.24 $3.22 $2.67 $2.77 $4.16 $4.06 $4.17 $4.25 $4.29 $4.31 $4.36 $4.40LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2012-2013 $4.69 $4.95 $5.39 $5.37 $5.33 $5.09 $5.09 $5.12 $5.15 $5.18 $5.21 $5.27LowGrowthHighPriceMain2013-2014 $5.54 $5.80 $6.36 $6.33 $6.29 $5.95 $5.95 $5.98 $6.01 $6.05 $6.08 $6.14LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2014-2015 $6.46 $673 $7.51 $7.46 $7.35 $7.00 $7.00 $7.03 $7.05 $7.10 $7.14 $7.21LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2015-2016 $7.58 $7.66 $7.99 $7,95 $7.61 $7.47 $7.46 $7.46 $7.51 $7.56 $7.62 $7.69LowGrowthHighPriceMain2016-2017 $805 $8.37 $8.59 $855 $8.38 $799 $7.99 $800 $8.01 $8.06 $8.16 $8.23LowGrowthHighPnceMaIm2017-2018 $8.27 $8.60 $8.81 $8.77 $8.60 $8.23 $6.23 $8.24 $8.23 $8.28 $8.39 $8.49LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2018-2019 $8.49 $8.87 $9.06 $9.01 $8.87 $8.44 $8.41 $6.44 $8.44 $8.49 $8.61 $8.76LowGrowthHighPriceMale2019-2020 $8.72 $9.12 $9,25 $9,21 $9.07 $8.59 $8.61 $8.59 $8.62 $8.68 $8.84 $8.97LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2020-2021 $8.95 $9.35 $9.54 $9.49 $9.34 $8.84 $8.86 $8.83 $8.86 $8.91 $9.17 $9.31LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2021-2022 $9.26 $9.68 $9.82 $9.77 $9.57 $9.11 $9.13 $9.14 $9.12 $9.20 $9.41 $9.52LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2022-2023 $9.53 $9.85 $10.03 $9.96 $9.79 $9.35 $9.35 $9.32 $934 $9.40 $9.63 $9.75LowGrowthHighPnceMaIm2023-2024 $9.76 $10.17 $10.40 $10.35 $10.21 $9.78 $9.71 $9.74 $9.75 $9.81 $9.90 $10.08LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2024-2025 $10.12 $10.51 $10.65 $1060 $10.48 $10.00 $9.92 $9.94 $9.96 $10,02 $10.15 $10.33LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2025-2026 $10.43 $10.84 $11.29 $11.23 $11.08 $10.58 $10.58 $10.56 $10.57 $10.64 $10.84 $11.00LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2026-2027 $11.02 $11.47 $11,81 $11.76 $11.61 $11.10 $11.09 $11.08 $1107 $11.14 $11.38 $11.52LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2021-2028 $11.52 $12.00 $12.43 $12.38 $12.21 $11.64 $11.65 $11.66 $11.62 $11.70 $12.03 $12.14LowGrowthHighPriceMain2026-2029 $12.14 $12.62 $13.07 $13.00 $12.87 $12.26 $12.26 $12,26 $12.25 $12.33 $12.50 $12.71LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2029-2030 $12.70 $13.24 $13.77 $13.71 $13.58 $12.98 $12.98 $12.97 $12.95 $13.04 $13.23 $13.44LowGrowthHighPriceMaIm2030-2031 $13,43 $13.98 $13.82 $13.75 $13.58 $12.97 $12.98 $12.99 $12.98 $13.06 $13.28 $13.48
Low Growth High Price Rockies 2011-2012 $3.14 $3.18 $2.63 $2.73 $4.13 $4.03 $4.10 $4.18 $4.21 $4.24 $4.28 $4.33LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2012-2013 $4.61 $4.86 $5.31 $5.29 $524 $5.01 $5.02 $5.04 $5.08 $5.10 $5.13 $5.19LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2013-2014 $5.46 $5.72 $6.27 $6.24 $6.21 $5.87 $5.87 $5.91 $5.93 $5.97 $6.00 $605LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2014-2015 $6.37 $6.64 $7.42 $7.37 $7.26 $692 $692 $6.95 $697 $7.02 $7.06 $7.12LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2015-2016 $7.49 $7.79 $7.90 $7.66 $7.72 $7.38 $7.38 $7.36 $7.43 $7.46 $7.53 $7.61LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2016-2017 $7.96 $8.28 $850 $8,46 $8.29 $7.91 $7.91 $7.92 $7.93 $7.97 $8.08 $8.15LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2017-2018 $8.18 $8.51 $8.72 $8.67 $asi $8.15 $8.14 $8.16 $8.14 $8.19 $8.30 $8.40LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2018-2019 $8.40 $8.77 $8.96 $8.91 $8.78 $8.35 $8.33 $8,35 $6.33 $8.39 $852 $8.67LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2019-2020 $8.57 $8.96 $9.13 $9.07 $8.95 $8.48 $8.44 $8.42 $8.41 $8.45 $8.62 $8.78LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2020-2021 $877 $9.20 $9.37 $9.31 $9.21 $8.72 $8.69 $8.65 $8.67 $8.71 $8.89 $9.03LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2021-2022 $9.03 $9.45 $9.61 $9.55 $9.39 $8.89 $8.88 $8.89 $8.66 $8.94 $9.10 $9.22LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2022-2023 $9.25 $9.60 $9.77 $9.71 $9.57 $a05 $905 $9.00 $9,01 $9.07 $27 $9.38LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2023-2024 $9.36 $9.80 $10.02 $9.96 $9.86 $9.42 $9.35 $9.33 $9.36 $9.42 $9.51 $9.69LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2024-2025 $967 $10,10 $10.27 $10.21 $10.07 $9.50 $9.41 $9,41 $944 $9.50 $9.67 $9.87LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2025-2026 $10.08 $10.55 $11.04 $10.97 $10.83 $10.32 $10.32 $10.28 $10.32 $10.39 $10.55 $10.71LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2026-2027 $10.70 $11.17 $11.52 $11.48 $11.33 $10.80 $10.81 $10,78 $10.79 $10.86 $11.06 $11.20LowGrowthHighPriceRockws2027-2028 $11.16 $11.67 $12.12 $12.05 $11.87 $11.33 $11.33 $11.32 $11.32 $11.39 $11.64 $11.75LowGrowthHighPriceRockies2028-2029 $11.73 $12.25 $12.70 $12.62 $12.47 $11.91 $11.88 $11 88 $11 91 $11.98 $12.11 $12.31LowGrowthHighPnceRockies2029-2030 $12.27 $12.82 $13.36 $13.29 $13.13 $12.56 $12.57 $12.65 $12.55 $12.63 $12.81 $12.99LowGrowthHighPrice-Rockies 2030-2031 $12.93 $13,53 $13.35 $13.28 $13.10 $1254 $1255$12.54 S 12.54$12.62 $12.80 $13,00
6 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.1 II MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
Low GROWTH HIGH PRICE
2010$
Scenario Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jen Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Low Growth High Price Stanfield 2011-2012 $3.18 $3.22 $2.64 2.74 $4.05 4.03 $4.10 4.17 $4.21 $4.23 $4.25 $4.29
Low Growth High Price Stanfielci 2012-2013 $4.59 $4.85 $528 526 $5.24 5.00 $5.01 5.04 $5.07 $5 10 $6.10 $5.15
Low Growth High Price Stanfield 2013-2014 $5.45 $5.59 $6.25 6.22 $6.20 5.86 $5.84 5.89 $5.91 5.95 $5.95 6.01
Low Growth High Price Stanfleld 2014-2015 $6.34 6.60 $7.39 7.35 $7.26 689 $688 6.92 $695 6.98 $7.01 7.07
Low Growth High Price Stanfleid 2015-2016 $7.45 1.74 $7.86 1.82 $1.12 1.33 $1.33 7.33 $/.38 7.42 $1.48 7.55
LowGrowth High Price Stanteld 2016-2017 $7.91 823 $845 8.41 $828 7.85 $785 786 $787 791 $801 8.08
Low Growth High Pece Stanfield 2017-2018 $6.12 8.44 $8.66 8.62 $8.4.8 8.07 $6.01 8.09 $8.07 8.12 $8.22 8.31
Low Growth High Pece Stanteld 2018-2019 $833 871 $903 8.99 $674 8.28 $8.27 829 $8.27 8.32 $8.43 8.70
Low Growth High Price Stanteid 2019-2020 $8.61 8.95 $9.24 9.20 $8.95 8.46 $8.46 8.45 $8.46 8.50 $8.66 6.19
Low Growth High Price Stanteld 2020-2021 $880 9.33 $9.54 9.49 $923 8.72 $8.73 870 $8.71 8.75 $8.99 9.12
Low Growth High Pnce Stanteid 2021-2022 $9.24 9.66 $9.82 9.17 $9.46 8.96 $8.97 8.99 $8.97 9.03 $9.23 9.34
Low Growth High Price Stanteid 2022-2023 $9.51 9.82 $10.02 9.97 $9.67 9.20 $920 9.17 $9.17 922 $9.44 9.56
Low Growth High Price Stanteld 2023-2024 $9.11 10.11 $10.39 10.34 $10.08 9.61 $9.56 9.58 $9.58 9.64 $9.72 9.89
Low Growth High Price Stanteld 2024-2025 $10.07 10.46 $10.64 10.58 $10.35 9.83 $9.76 9.79 $9.79 985 $9.96 $10.14
Low Growth High Price Stanteld 2025-2026 $10.38 10.80 $11.28 11.22 $11.07 10.43 $10.41 10.40 $10.40 10.46 $10.65 $10.81
Low Growth High Price Stanlield 2026-2027 $10.99 11.44 $11.81 11.76 $11.60 10.94 $10.92 10.91 $10.89 10.96 $11.19 $11.33
LowGrowth High Pnce Stanteld 2027-2028 $11.49 11.97 $12.43 12.37 $12.20 11.49 $11.48 11.49 $11.45 11.52 $11.84 $11.95
Low Growth High Price Stanteld 2028-2029 $1211 12.60 $13.06 12.99 $12.87 12.10 $12.09 12.09 $12.07 $12.15 $12.31 $12.52
Low Growth High Price Stanteld 2029-2030 $12.69 13.22 $13.76 13.70 $13,57 12.82 $12.81 12.80 $12.17 $12.85 $13.04 $13.25
LowGrowth High Price Stanteld 2030-2031 $13.41 13.97 $13.81 13.74 $1368 12.81 $12.93 1283 $12.80 $12.88 $13.08 $13.29
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2011-2012 $3.32 $3.21 $2.67 $2.77 $4.06 $3.97 $3.97 $4.01 S 4.08 $4.09 $4.10 $4.22
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2012-2013 $4.79 $505 $549 $547 $5.32 $4.92 $4.86 $4.88 $492 $4.95 $4.96 $506
Low Growth High Pece Suroac 2013-2014 $5.64 $5.90 $6.41 $6.44 $6.29 $5.72 $5.69 $5.73 $5.16 $5.78 $5.14 $5.82
Low Growth High Price Sutorac 2014-2015 $6.56 $6.83 $7.62 $7.58 $735 $6.74 $6.71 $6.77 $6.80 $682 S 6.80 $8.85
Low Growth High Pece Suroas 2015-2016 $7.66 $7.97 $8.09 $8.05 $7.81 $7.16 $7.14 $7.17 $7.20 $7.22 $7.26 $7.32
Low Growth High Price Sunoaa 2016-2017 $ais $&47 $8.69 $8.65 $8.37 $7.64 $7.65 $7.67 $7.67 $7.70 $7.78 $7.84
Low Growth High Pece Sumac 2011-2018 $8.37 $8.69 $8.91 $8.87 $8.33 $7.84 $1.86 $1.88 $7.85 $1,89 $7.98 $8.06
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2018-2019 $8.36 $8.96 $918 $9.13 $6.70 $8.17 $8.16 $8.11 $8.05 $8.06 $8.16 $8.32
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2019-2020 $8.34 $8.72 $9.39 $9.35 $8.95 $8.37 $8.33 $8.30 $8.31 $8.34 $8.47 $8.61
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2020-2021 $8.83 $9.38 $9.59 $9.54 $9.38 $8.62 $8.52 $8.48 $8.56 $8 56 $8.68 $8.91
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2021-2022 $9.29 $9.71 $9.92 $9.87 $9.61 $8.85 $8.77 $8.75 $8.60 $8.83 $8.96 $9.18
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2022-2023 $9.56 $9.87 $10.07 $10.02 $9.62 $9.08 $9.01 $8.95 $9.02 $9.02 $9.14 $9.34
Low Growth High Pece Sumac 2023-2024 $9.76 $10.16 $10.47 $10.39 $10.23 $9.47 $9.36 $9.35 $9.40 $9.41 $9.46 $9.71
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2024-2025 $10.12 $10.51 $10.71 $1065 $10.50 $969 $9.67 $9.55 $9.66 $9.63 $9.70 $9.97
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2025-2026 $10.43 $10.85 $11,35 $11.29 $11.12 $10.28 $10,19 $10.03 $10.27 $10,25 $10,38 $10.64
LowGrowth High Price Sumac 2026-2027 $1104 $11.51 $11.91 $11.85 $11.65 $10.79 $10.71 $10.52 $10.76 $10.16 $10.92 $11.16
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2021-2028 $11.54 $12.03 $12.52 $12.47 $12.25 $11.35 $11.26 $11.11 $11.33 $11.33 $11.54 $11.77
Low Growth High Price Sumac 2028-2029 $12.16 $12.79 $1327 $13.21 $12.92 $11.95 $11.88 $11.69 $11 94 $1200 $12.06 $1235
Low Growth High Pece Sumac 2029-2030 $12.14 $13.40 $13.98 $13.92 $13.62 $12.66 $12.58 $12.39 $12.64 $12.70 $1285 $13.07
LowGrowth High Price Sumac 2030-2031 $13.46 $14.29 $1415 $1408 $1363 $12.66 $12.58 $12.43 $12.66 $12.73 $12.88 $13.11
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 7
APPENDIX 6.2 II WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL
Avista Corporation Capital Structure and Overall Rate of Return
OREGON
Cost of Capital asof
Percent of AfterTax
Amount Total Cost Component Component
LITDebt 50.00%5.90%2.95%1.92%
Trust Preferred Securities 0.00%0.00%0.00%
Common Equity 50.00%1010%5.05%5.05%
TOTAL 100.00%8.00%6.97%
Percent of
Total After Tax
Capital Cost Component Component
LIT Debt 53.50%5.93%317%2.06%
Trust Preferred Securities 0.00%
Common Equity 46.50%10.20%4.74%4.74%
TOTAL 100.00%7.92%6.81%
Agreed-upon
Cost of Capital
WASHINGTON
IDAHO
Agreed-upon
Cost of Capital
Percent of
Total After Tax
Amount Capital Cost Component Component
LIT Debt (1)50.00%6.60%3.30%2.15%
Trust Preferred Securities 0 00%
Preferred Stock 0.00%0 00%
Common Equity 50.00%10.50%5.25%5.25%
TOTAL 100.00%8.55%7.40%
$141,728,000
$205,507,000
$107,759,000
$454,994,000
31%
45%
24%
System Weighted Average Cost of Capital (Nominal$)*
GDP price deflator
After Tax WACC
*Weighting based on Commission Basis Reports
**Tax rate applied to LIT Debt
8.09%T00%
1.56%1.56%
6.43%5.35%I
Rate Base from Commission Basis Reports
OR
WA
ID
35%
8 II CHAPTER6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.2 II AUTHORIZED RATES OF RETURN
Washington Electric Washington Gas
General Case Settlement in 2008 (UE-080416)General Case Settlement in 2008 (UG-080417)
effective 1/1/2009 effective 1/1/2009
ProFomia ProForma
Capital ProForrna Weighted Capital ProForma Weighted
Component Structure Cost Cost Component Structure Cost Cost
UT Debt Ill 53.70%6.51%3.50%LIT Debt (1)53.70%6.51%3.50%
Pref Trust 0.00%Pref Trust 0.00%
Common 46.30%10.20%4.72%Common 46.30%10.20%4.72%
Total 100.00%8.22%Total 100.00%8.22%
(1)includes short-term debt (1)includes short-term debt
Idaho Electric Idaho Gas
Case Decided in 2008-AVU-E-08-01 Case Decided in 2008-AVU-G-08-01
effective 10/1/2008 effective 10/1/2008
ProForma ProForma
Capital ProForma Weighted Capital ProForma Weighted
Component Structure Cost Cost Component Structure Cost Cost
UT Debt 52.06%6.84%3.56%UT Debt 52.06%6.84%3.56%
Pref Trust 0.00%Pref Trust 0.00%
Pref Stock 0.00%Pref Stock 0.00%
Common 47.94%10.20%4.89%Common 47.94%10.20%4.89%
Total 100.00%8.45%Total 100.00%8.45%
(excludes short-term debt)
________
(excludes short-term debt)
Oregon Gas
General Case Settlement in 2007 (UG-181)
effective 4/1/2008
ProForma
Capital ProForma Weighted
Component Structure Cost Cost
L/T Debt 45.00%6.40%2.88%
Pref Trust 5.00%6.57%0.33%
Common 50.00%10.00%5.00%
Total 100.00%8.21%
(excludes short-term debt)
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 9
APPENDIX 6.2 II EscALATIoN/INFLATION FORECASTS
Implicit Price Detiators —U.S.Aerage 5/20/2011
Source:Randy Barcus,Finance—Analysis,Budget &Forecasting
Discount Rate:Leelizing is Not Applicable to Escalation Rates
El E2 E3 E4
Gross Personal Power Consumer
Domestic Consumption Equipment Price
Year Product Expenditures Investment Index-Urban
(%change)(%change)(%change)(%change)
1996 1.9 2.2 1.6 2.9
1997 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3
1998 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.5
1999 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.2
2000 2.2 2.5 4.1 3.4
2001 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8
2002 1.6 1.4 2.7 1.6
2003 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3
2004 2.8 2.6 8.3 2.7
2005 3.3 3.0 9.3 3.4
2006 3.3 2.7 6.1 3.2
2007 2.9 2.7 4.7 2.9
2008 2.2 3.3 9.4 3.8
2009 0.9 0.2 -0.7 -0.3
2010 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.6
2011 1.3 1.4 3.5 1.9
2012 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7
2013 1.6 1.7 2.2 1.9
2014 1.8 2.0 3.0 2.2
2015 1.8 2.1 3.0 2.2
2016 1.8 2.0 2.8 2.1
2017 1.8 2.0 2.9 2.1
2018 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.1
2019 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.0
2020 1.8 1.9 2.8 1.9
2021 1.8 1.9 2.7 1.9
2022 1.7 1.8 2.6 1.9
2023 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.9
2024 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.0
2025 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.0
2026 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.0
2027 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.1
2028 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.1
2029 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.1
2030 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.1
2031 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.0
2032 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.0
2033 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.0
2034 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.0
2035 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.9
2036 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.0
2037 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.0
2038 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.1
2039 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.1
2040 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.1
2010-2040A.1.7 1.9 2.6 2.0
5YearAg.1.6 1.7 2.6 2.0
10YearAg.1.7 1.9 2.7 2.0
20 Year Avg.1.7 1.9 2.6 2.0
25YearAg.1.7 1.9 2.6 2.0
30YearA.1.7 1.9 2.6 2.0
Std.Day.1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0
0.5 0.5 1.9 0.6
El Applies to inflation of all good &ser’Aces produced &consumed in the U.S.
E2 Applies to inflation of goods &serces consumed by indi,iduals.
E3 Applies to inflation of non-residential power equipment
E4 For all urban consumers,applies to inflation of a fixed market basket of typical
goods &ser’ices.
Reference:GlobalInsight’sReview ofthe U.&Economy First Quarter2011
10 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.2 II CosT OF CAPITAL
Source:Damien Lysiak,Treasury Department 6/20/2011
Projected Long-Term Cost of Capital —Avista Utilities
for Net Present Value Analysis
Target
Capital Component
Structure Cost
Debt 50%5.85%2.93%
Common Equity 50%10.90%1
Weighted Cost of Capital 8.38%
1:Based on Aista’s WUTC 2011 rate case
Authorized Cost of Capital —Avista Utilities
for Revenue Requirements Analysis
Washington ElecIGas Decided 2010
Authorized
Capital Component Component
Structure Cost Return
Debt 53.50%5.92%3.17%
Common Equity 46.50%10.20%4.74%
RateofReturn 7.91%
Authorized Cost of Capital —Avista Utilities
for Revenue Requirements Analysis
Idaho Elec/Gas Decided
Authorized
Capital Component Component
Structure Cost Return
Debt 50.00%6.60%3.30%
Common Equity 50.00%10.50%5.25%
Rate of Return 8.55%
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12 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II EXPECTED CASE AVOIDED COST
Annual Avoided Costs II
2010$
Scenario GasYear lOam Fails La Grande Medford GIN Medford NWP Roeeburg WA/ID eoth WA/ID GIN WA/ID NWP WA/ID Annual OR Annual
Expected 2011-2012 $2.69 $2.84 $2.69 $2.69 $2.69 $2.69 $2.65 $2.87 $2.74 $2.72
Expected 2012-2013 $3.54 $3.77 $3.54 $3.54 $3.54 $358 $348 $3.77 $161 $355
Expected 2013-2014 $3.85 $4.07 $3.85 $3.85 $3.85 $3.86 $3.80 $4.08 $3.91 $3.90
Expected 2014-2015 $4.01 $424 $4.01 $4.01 $401 $403 $3.96 $4.25 $4.08 $406
Expected 2015-2016 $4.18 $4.45 $4.18 $4.18 $4.18 $4.21 $4.12 $4.47 $4.28 $4.23
Expected 2016-2017 $4.35 $464 $4.35 $4.35 $4.35 $439 $429 $4.65 $4.44 $4.41
Expected 2017-2018 $4.58 $4.86 $4.56 $4.56 $4.56 $4.60 $4.50 $4.89 $4.67 $4.63
Expected 2018-2019 $4.73 $5.06 $473 $4.73 $4.73 $4.78 $4.67 $5.06 $4.64 $480
Expected 2019-2020 $4.82 $5.03 $4.83 $4.83 $4.83 $4.84 $4.76 $5.05 $4.88 $4.87
Expected 2020-2021 $4.93 $5.10 $493 $4.93 $4.93 $4.94 $4.88 $5.11 $4.97 $4.96
Expected 2021-2022 $4.87 $5.01 $4.88 $4,88 $4.88 $4.87 $4.80 $5.02 $4,90 $4.90
Expected 2022-2023 $4.99 $5 08 $4.99 $4.99 $4.99 $4.99 $4.92 $5.09 $5.00 $5 01
Expected 2023-2024 $4.92 $4.98 $4.93 $4.93 $4.93 $4.91 $4.85 $4.99 $4.92 $4.94
Expected 2024-2025 $4.96 $4.98 $4.95 $4.95 $4.95 $4.94 $4.90 $4.97 $4.94 $4.96
Expected 2025-2026 $5.04 $5.20 $5.05 $5.05 $5.05 $5.01 $4.98 $5.22 $5.07 $5.08
Expected 2026-2027 $5.01 $5.15 $5.02 $5.02 $5.02 $4.97 $4.94 $5.16 $5.03 $5.04
Expected 2027-2028 $5.03 $5.13 $5.04 $5.04 $5.04 $5.00 $4.96 $5.14 $5.04 $5.06
Expected 2028-2029 $5,07 $5.14 $5.08 $508 $5.08 $5.04 $5.00 $5.16 $5.07 $5.09
Expected 2029-2030 $5.08 $5.12 $5.06 $5.08 $5.08 $5.03 $5.00 $5.14 $5.06 $5.09
Expected 2030-2031 $5.15 $5.17 $5.16 $5.16 $5.16 $5.11 $5.08 $5.19 $5.13 $5.16
Winter Avoided Costs 11
2010$
Scenarto Gas Year KIam Falls La Grande Medlord GIN Medford NWP Roseburg WA/ID eoth WA/ID GIN WA/ID NWP WA/ID Winter OR Winter
Expected 2011-2012 $2.80 $2.88 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $2.86 $2.75 $2.87 $2.83 $2.81
Expected 2012-2013 $3.42 $3.68 $3.43 $3.43 $3.43 $3.59 $3.36 $3.68 $3.55 $3.48
Expected 2013-2014 $3.94 $4.11 $3.94 $3.94 $3.94 $4.03 $3.88 $4.11 $4.00 $3.97
Expected 2014-2015 $4.07 $4,28 $4.07 $4.07 $4.07 $4.19 $400 $4.27 $4.15 $4.11
Expected 2015-2016 $4.21 $4.47 $4.21 $4.21 $4.21 $4.36 $4,14 $4.47 $4.32 $4.26
Expected 2016-2017 $439 $467 $4.39 $4.39 $4.39 $4.55 $4.32 $4.67 $451 $4.44
Expected 2017-2018 $4.60 $4.91 $4.60 $4.60 $4.60 $4.77 $4.52 $4.91 $4.73 $4.66
Expected 2018-2019 $4.79 $5.11 $4.79 $4.79 $4.79 $4.97 $471 $5.11 $493 $485
Expected 2019-2020 $4.88 $5.10 $4.88 $4.88 $4.88 $5.00 $4.80 $5.10 $4.97 $4.92
Expected 2020-2021 $5.00 $5.18 $5.00 $500 $5.00 $5,11 $4.92 $5.18 $507 $5.03
Expected 2021-2022 $4.97 $5.12 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $5.05 $4.88 $5.12 $5.02 $5.00
Expected 2022-2023 $5.02 $5.15 $5.02 $5.02 $5.02 $5.10 $4.94 $5.15 $5.06 $5.05
Expected 2023-2024 $5.04 $5.13 $5.04 $5.04 $5.04 $5.08 $4.95 $5.11 $5.05 $5.06
Expected 2024-2025 $5.03 $5.09 $5.03 $5 03 $5.03 $5.06 $4.95 $5.07 $5.02 $5 04
Expected 2025-2026 $5.14 $5.29 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $5.15 $5.07 $5.28 $5.17 $5.17
Expected 2026-2027 $5.15 $5.28 $5.15 $515 $5.15 $5.16 $5.08 $5.27 $5.17 $5.18
Expected 2027-2028 $5.14 $5.23 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $5.15 $5.07 $5.22 $5.15 $5.16
Expected 2028-2029 $5.19 $5.24 $5.19 $5.19 $5.19 $519 $5.10 $5.23 $5.18 $5.20
Expected 2029-2030 $5.21 $5.24 $5.22 $5.22 $5.22 $5.20 $5.13 $5.23 $518 $5.22
Expected 2030-2031 $5.25 $526 $5.26 $5.26 $526 $5.23 $5.17 $5.26 $5.22 $5.26
1/A%oided coxtx ate before Erv/ronmextal Extematities adder.
APPENDIX 6.4 II Low GROWTH CASE AVOIDED COST
Annual Avoided Costs II
2010$
Winter Avoided Costs II
2010$
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 13
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2030-2031
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Kiam Falls La Grande
3.68 $3.82
4.96 $5.13
5.84 $6.02
6.91 $7.07
7.45 $7.65
7.97 $8.18
8.17 $8.41
8.40 $864
8.64 $8.78
8.91 $9.03
9.17 $9.26
9.39 $9.43
9.74 $9.75
9.98 $9.97
10.57 $10.65
11.10 $11.18
11.71 $11.74
12.32 $12.33
13.02 $13.01
13 16 $13.12
$
$
$
S
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
S
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3.68 $
4.96 $
5.84 $
6.91 $
7.45 $
7.97 $
8.17 $
8.40 $
8.64 $
8.90 $
9.16 $
936 $
9.72 $
9.96 $
10.56 $
11.10 $
11.70 $
12.31 $
13.01 $
13.14 $
3.68 $
4.96 $
5.84 $
6.91 $
7.45 $
797 $
8.17 $
8.40 $
8.64 $
8.90 $
9.16 $
9.38 $
9.72 $
9.96 $
10.56 $
11.10 $
11.70 $
12.31 $
13.01 $
13.14 $
3.66
4 96
5.84
6.91
7.45
7.97
8.17
8.40
8.64
8.90
9.16
9.38
9.72
996
10.56
11.10
11.70
12.31
13.01
13.14
WA/ID Both
$3.71
$4.95
$5.80
$6.85
$7.42
$7.92
$8.12
$8.35
$8.58
$8.84
$9.10
$9.31
$9.64
$9.89
$10.47
$11.00
$11.59
$12.19
$12.89
$13.03
WA/ID GTN WA/ID NWP
$3.63 $3.82
$490 $513
$5.77 $6.01
$6.82 $7.05
$7.36 $7.65
$7.87 $8.16
$8.06 $8.39
$8.29 $8.62
$8.53 $8.78
$8.80 $9.02
$9.06 $9.25
$928 $9.42
$9.62 $9.75
$9.86 $9.98
$10.44 $10.64
$10.97 $11.16
$11.57 $11.72
$12.17 $12.33
$12.87 $13.02
$13.01 $13 16
WA/ID Annual
$3.72
$4.99
$5.86
$6.91
$7.48
$7.99
$8.19
$8.42
$8.63
$8.89
$9.13
$9.34
$9.67
$9.91
$10.52
$11.04
$11.63
$12.23
$12.93
$13.06
OR Annual
$3.71
$500
$5.88
$694
$7.49
$8.01
$8.21
$845
$8.67
$8.93
$9.18
$9.39
$9.73
$9.97
$10.58
$11.12
$11.71
$12,32
$13.01
$1314
Scenario GasYear KIaw Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA/ID Both WA/ID GTN WA/ID NWP WA/ID Winter OR Winter
Low Growth 2011-2012 $3.13 $3.32 $3.13 $3.13 $3.13 $3.28 $3.07 $3.32 $3.23 $3.17LowGrowth2012-2013 $4.96 $5.09 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $5.03 $4.89 $5.07 $5.00 $4.99
Low Growth 2013-2014 $6.88 $5.99 $5.89 $5.89 $5.89 $5.89 $5.80 $5.94 $5.88 $5.91LowGrowth2014-2015 $6.92 $7.03 $6.92 $6.92 $6.92 $6.91 $6.82 $6.97 $6.90 $6.94
Low Growth 2015-2016 $7.64 $7.78 $7.64 $7.64 $7.64 $7.68 $7.54 $7.74 $7.65 $7.67LowGrowth2016-2017 $8.17 $8.31 $8.17 $8.17 $8.17 $8.19 $8.06 $8.26 $8.17 $820
Low Growth 2017-2018 $8.36 $8.53 $8.36 $8.36 $8.36 $8.38 $8.25 $8.48 $8.37 $8.39LowGrowth2018-2019 $8.60 $8.78 $8.60 $8.60 $8.60 $8.63 $8.49 $8.73 $8.62 $8.64LowGrowth2019-2020 $8.85 $8.99 $8.85 $8.85 $8.85 $8.85 $8.74 $8.93 $8.84 $8.88
LowGrowth 2020-2021 $9.12 $9.23 $9.12 $9.12 $9.12 $9.11 $9.00 $9.17 $9.09 $9.14LowGrowth2021-2022 $9.38 $9.48 $9.38 $9.38 $9.38 $9.36 $9.26 $9.42 $9,35 $9.40LowGrowth2022-2023 $9.60 $9.67 $9.60 $9.60 $9.60 $9.57 $9.48 $9 62 $9.55 $9.62LowGrowth2023-2024 $9.91 $9.94 $9.91 $9.91 $9.91 $9.84 $9.78 $9.88 $9.83 $9.92
LowGrowth 2024-2025 $10.19 $10.21 $10.19 $10.19 $10.19 $10.13 $10.07 $10.16 $10.12 $10.20LowGrowth2025-2026 $10.72 $10.78 $10.72 $10.72 $10.72 $10.65 $10.58 $10.70 $10.64 $10.73
Low Growth 2026-2027 $11.28 $11.35 $11.28 $11.28 $11.28 $11.22 $1114 $11.27 $11.21 $11.30LowGrowth2027-2028 $11.89 $11.93 $11.89 $11.89 $11.89 $11.79 $11.74 $11.84 $11.79 $11,90
Low Growth 2028-2029 $12.53 $12.54 $12.53 $12.53 $12.53 $12.43 $12.37 $12.46 $12.42 $12.53LowGrowth2029-2030 $13.20 $13.19 $13.20 $13.20 $13.20 $13.10 $13.04 $13.13 $13.09 $13.20
Low Growth 2030-2031 $13.51 $,13.45 $—-13.50$13M $13.50 $13.40 $13.36 $13.42 $13.39 $13.49
1/Arroided costa are before Endronmerrtel Externalities adder.
14 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II HIGH GROWTH CASE AVOIDED COST
Annual Avoided Costs 1/
2010$
Winter Avoided Costs 1/
2010$
Scenario Gas Year Kiam Falls La Grands Medford GTN
High Growth 2011-2012 $
High Growth 2012-2013 $
High Growth 2013-2014 $
High Growth 2014-2015 $
High Growth 2015-2016 $
High Growth 2016-2017 $
High Growth 2017-2018 $
High Growth 2018-2015 $
High Growth 2019-2020 $
High Growth 2020-2021 $
High Growth 2021-2022 $
High Growth 2022-2023 $
High Growth 2023-2024 $
High Growth 2024-2025 $
High Growth 2025-2026 $
High Growth 2026-2027 $
High Growth 2027-2028 $
High Growth 2028-2029 $
High Growth 2029-2030 $
High Growth 2030-2031 $
2.69 $2.84 $
3,54 $3,74 $
3.85 $4.07 $
4.02 $4.23 $
4.18 $4.45 $
4.87 $5.15 $
5.08 $5.39 $
5.25 $557 $
5.34 $5.54 $
5.45 $5.63 $
5.39 $5.53 $
5.52 $5.59 $
5.44 $5.48 $
5.50 $5.50 $
5.62 $5.72 $
5.58 $5.67 $
5.59 $5.65 $
5.65 $5.68 $
5.69 $5.70 $
578 $578 $
2.69
3.54
3.85
4.02
4.18
4 87
5.09
5.25
5.35
5.46
5.40
5.52
5.45
5.50
5.63
5.60
5.61
5.66
5.70
5.79
Medford NWP
$2.69
$3.54
$3.85
$4.02
$4.18
$4.87
$sag
$5.25
$5.35
$5.46
$5.40
$5.52
$5.45
$5.50
$5.63
$5.60
$5.61
$5.66
$5.70
$5.79
Roaeburg
$2.69
$354
$3.85
$4.02
$4.18
$4.87
$5.09
$5.25
$5.35
$5.46
$5.40
$5.52
$5.45
$5.50
$5.63
$5.60
$5.61
$5.86
$5,70
$5.79
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
WAIID Both WNID GTN WAIID NWP WAJID Annual
2.65 $2.65 $2.87 $2.72
3.49 $3.49 $176 $358
3.80 $3.80 $4.08 $3.89
3.96 $3.96 $4.24 $4.05
4.12 $4.12 $4.46 $4.23
4.80 $4.80 $5.16 $4,92
5.01 $5.01 $5.40 $5.14
5.18 $5.18 $5.50 $5.31
5.27 $5.27 $5.55 $5.36
5.38 $5.38 $5.66 $5.47
5.31 $5.31 $5.54 $5.39
5.43 $5.43 $5.61 $5.49
5.36 $5.36 $5.50 $5.41
5.41 $5.41 $5.50 $5.44
5.48 $5.48 $5.74 $5.57
5.45 $5.46 $5.68 $5.52
5.47 $5.47 $5.67 $5.54
5.52 $6.52 $5.71 $5.55
5.54 $5.54 S 5.76 $5.61
5.62 $5.62 $5.82 $5.69
OR Annual
$2.72
$358
$3.90
$406
$4.23
$4,93
$5.15
$5.32
$5.39
$549
$5.42
$5.53
$5.45
$5.50
$5.65
$6.61
$5.61
$5.66
$5.70
$579
Scenario Gas Year Kiam Falls La Grands Medford GTN Medford NWP Rosebury WA/ID Both WAJID GTN WAIID NWP WA/ID Winter OR Winter
High Growth 2011-2012 $
High Growth 2012-2013 $
High Growth 2013-2014 $
High Growth 2014-2015 $
High Growth 2015-2016 $
High Growth 2016-2017 $
High Growth 2017-2018 $
High Growth 2018-2019 $
High Growth 2019-2020 $
High Growth 2020-2021 $
High Growth 2021-2022 $
High Growth 2022-2023 $
High Growth 2023-2024 $
High Gt’owth 2024-2025 $
High Growth 2025-2026 $
High Growth 2026-2027 $
High Growth 2027-2028 $
High Growth 2028-2029 $
High Growth 2029-2030 $
High Growth 2030-2031 $
2.80 $2.87 $
342 $3.61 $
3.94 $4.11 $
4.07 $4,27 $
4.21 $4.46 $
4.91 $5.17 $
5.12 $5.41 $
5.31 $5.61 $
5.41 $5.60 $
553 $5.71 $
5.49 $5.64 $
5.58 $5.67 $
5.57 $5.61 $
561 $5.60 $
5.81 $5.84 $
5.81 $5.82 $
5.77 $5.77 $
584 $5.84 $
5.94 $5.93 $
6.01 $5.99 $
2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $2.75 $
342 $142 $142 $336 $
194 $194 $194 $188 $
4.07 $4.07 $4.07 $4.01 $
4,21 $4.21 $4.21 $4.14 $
4.91 $4.91 $4.91 $4.83 $
5.12 $5.12 $5.12 $5.04 $
5.31 $5.31 $531 $5.23 $
5.41 $5.41 $5.41 $5.32 $
553 $5.53 $5.53 $5.44 $
5.49 $5.49 $5.49 $5.41 $
558 $5.58 $5.58 $5.47 $
5.57 $5.57 $5.57 $5.47 $
5,61 $5.61 $5.61 $5.47 $
5.81 $5.81 $5.81 $5.58 $
5.81 $5.81 $5.81 $5.58 $
5.77 $5.77 $5.77 $5.57 $
5.84 $5.84 $5.84 $5.63 $
5.94 $5.94 $5.94 $5.68 $
6.01 $6.01 $601 $5.73 $
2.75 $
3.36 $
3.88 $
4.01 $
4.14 $
4.83 $
5.04 $
5.23 $
5.32 $
5.44 $
5.41 $
5.47 $
5.47 $
5.47 $
5.58 $
5.58 $
5.57 $
5.63 $
5.68 $
5.73 $
2.85
3.65
4.10
4.27
4,46
5.17
5.41
5.61
5.60
571
5.63
5.67
5.60
5.59
5.82
5.80
5.76
5.84
5.95
6 04
$2.79 $2.81
$3.46 $3.46
$3.95 $3.97
$4.09 $4.11
$4.25 $4.26
$4.94 $4.96
$5.16 $5.18
$5.36 $5,37
$5.41 $5.45
$553 $5,57
$5.48 $5.52
$5.53 $5.60
$5.51 $5.58
$5.51 $5.61
$5.66 $5.81
$5.65 $5.81
$5.63 $5.77
$5.70 $5.84
$5.77 $5.94
$5.84 $601
1/Asoidect costs are before Enironmental Externalities adder.
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 15
APPENDIX 6.4 II WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AVOIDED COSTS -
Low GROWTH/HIGH PRICE CASE
APPENDIX 6.4 II NATURAL GAS OREGON AVOIDED COSTS -
Low GROWTH/HIGH PRICE CASE
$16.00
$1400
Washington and Idaho Avoided Costs -Low Growth/High Price Case
Includes Commodity &Trans.Costs/Excludes Env.Ext.Adder -November to October
2010$/Dth
$12.00
$10.00
.,s $8.00
$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
.s ..4’4’‘i’_t ‘,‘)(_,4,,.,,‘t ‘,‘1 ‘l ‘9 ‘t,‘5.‘5.‘5.‘5.‘l’‘1.‘1’‘5.‘5.
—4.—WA/ID Winter -.—WMD Annual
Natural Gas Oregon Avoided Costs -Low Growth/High Price Case
Includes Commodity &Trans.Costs/Excludes Env.Ext.Adder -November to October
2010$/Ott
$16.00
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
0
$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
4’4)4’4)4’4)4’4)4’ç5.4)4)4)44)4)4)4)5.5.‘5,4)5,4)%5,5.‘5.t.0 ‘5.‘5.5.4)4)4’4)4)4’‘c’c’.4)4)4)4)4)4)..‘I.‘5.‘5.‘5,‘5,‘5,‘1 ‘5.‘5.‘5.‘I.‘1.‘I.‘1.‘5.‘5.‘1.‘5.“,‘5.
—4—OR Winter —I—OR Annual
16 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AVOIDED COSTS -
Low PRICE CASE
APPENDIX 6.4 II NATURAL GAS OREGON AVOIDED COSTS -
Low PRICE CASE
Washington and Idaho Avoided Costs -Low Price Case
Includes Commodity &Trans.Costs/EcIudes Env.Ext.Adder -November to October
2009$/Dth
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
l...t c ç .<,o 0
t.%,
—4--W,VlDWinter —*—WWIDAnnuaI
Natural Gas Oregon Avoided Costs -Low Price Case
Includes Commodity &Trans.Costs/Excludes Env.Ext.Adder -November to October
2010$/Dth
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
_I’‘‘
‘1.l-‘C,‘C’‘-‘i’‘•-
‘l.ft ‘t’‘I’‘e ‘t L.‘.‘1,‘6 ‘6 ‘6 ‘6 ‘6 ‘6 ‘6 ‘6 ‘6
—4-—OR Winter —.—ORAnnual
ZO12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 17
APPENDIX 6.4 II Low GROWTH —HIGH PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL
Monthly Avoided Cost Detail 1!
2010$
Scenario Oasvear Month Kiam Folio LaGrande MedfordGTN ModferdNWP Roaabarg WAtiDSeth WNtDGTN WNiOFSWP WMDAsrrrual ORAeeaaiLowGrowth&High Pete 2011-2012 Nov $3.21 5 3.21 $3.21 $3.21 S 3.21 5 3.18 $3.17 $3.21 5 3.19 $321LowGrowth&HighPrice 2011-2012 Dec $3.07 $348 $311 $311 $311 $3.48 $300 $3.48 $3.32 6 3.18LowGrowth&High Price 2011-2012 Jan 5 2.50 $2.74 $2.55 $2.55 $2.55 $274 $2.52 0 2.75 $2.87 $2.59LowGrriwrh&HighPnce 2011-2012 Feb $288 $303 $268 $269 $2.68 $295 $2.62 $303 $2.87 $270LowGrowth6HighPete2011-2012 Mar $4.09 $411 5 458 5 4.09 $409 5 4.03 $4.03 $4.11 5 4.56 $409LowGrowth&High Price 2011-2012 Apr $402 5 4,11 $4.02 $402 $4.02 $3.96 $396 6 411 $4.01 $404LowGrowth&High Price 2011-2012 May $3,97 $4.12 $3,97 $3.97 S 3.97 $391 5 351 $4.12 $395 5 4.00LowGrweth&High P’ice 2011-2012 Jar $404 $4.12 $454 $4.04 $4,04 5 395 $3.98 $412 $4.03 $4.0$ow Growth &Hign Pete 201 t-2G12 3-i 5 4.08 $4.16 $4.08 $4.55 $4.08 5 4.02 $4.02 $4.16 $4.07 $4.05LowGrowthSHghPrice2011-2012 Aug $4.09 S 4.17 $4.09 5 459 $4.09 5 4.03 $4.03 $4.17 $4.08 $4.10LewGrowtri56-ay P5cc 2011-2012 Sep 5 414 5 4.15 $414 $414 5 4.14 $4.09 5 4.09 $4.15 $4.12 $4.15LowGiowthSHighPrice2011-2012 Get $419 $4.42 5 4,16 $41$5 4.18 $4.13 $4.13 5 442 $4.22 $423LowGrowth&High Pete 2012-2013 Nec $4.50 5 4,70 $4.55 $4.50 5 450 $452 $4.44 3 4.70 $4.55 5 454LowGrowth&Hgh Proc 2512-2013 Dec $475 $613 $4.82 $4.82 $4.82 $5.13 $4.68 $5.13 $4.98 $4.87LowGrewtn&High Price 2012-2013 Jue $5.20 $523 $5.20 $5.20 $5.20 $5.23 $5.14 $5.23 $5.20 $5.21LowGrowth&High Price 2012-2013 Feb $6.17 $5.21 $517 $6.17 $5.17 $5.15 $5.11 $516 $5.14 $5.18LowGrowth&High Pete 2012-2513 Mar 5 5.16 $5,15 $5.16 $5.16 $5.16 3 510 $5.10 5 5.14 $5.11 $5.16LowGrowth&Hgh Proc 2012-2513 Apr $4.93 $611 5 4.92 $4.93 $493 $486 S 4.96 $5.14 5 495 $4.96LowGrowth&HighPece 2012-2013 May 5 4.05 5 512 $4.90 $4.90 $490 $4.83 $483 5 5.14 $494 5 4.94LowGrowth&High Price 2012-2013 Jarr $4.92 $6.i4 6 4.92 $4.92 S 4.92 $4.85 $4.85 $6.14 $4,95 $4.96owGrowth&Hge Price 2012-2013 Jul $4.95 $5.14 $4.95 $4.95 $4.95 $4.85 5 4.85 $5.14 $4.97 $4.95LowGrwnth&HgePrrce 2012-2013 Aug $4.96 $6.15 $4.98 $4.99 $4.98 $491 $4.61 $6.15 $499 $6.01LowGrowth&High Pete 2512-2013 Sep 5 5.01 $5.15 5 5.01 $501 $5.01 5 4.94 $4.54 5 515 $5.01 $5.54LowGrowth&High P0cc 2012-2013 Got $5.06 $5.29 $5.06 $5.56 $5.56 6 5.00 $5.00 $5.29 $5.09 $5.10LowGrowth&High Price 2013-2014 Nov $5.37 $5,55 $5.37 $5.37 $5.37 $5.30 5 5.30 $5.56 $5.35 $5.40LowGrowth&High P4cc 2013-2014 Dec $5.62 $5.90 $5.66 $5.66 $5.66 $5.90 $5.52 $5.90 $5,77 $570LowGrowth&High Pete 2013-2014 Jan $6.16 g 6.16 $6.16 g 5.16 $8.16 $6.10 $6.09 5 6.10 $6.05 $bibLowGrowth&High P6cc 2013-2514 Feb $6.13 $6.17 $6.13 $6.13 $613 $6.08 $6.56 $6.06 $6.57 $6.14LowGrowth&HrghPnce 2013-2014 Mar $614 5 614 5 514 $6.14 5 614 5 6.07 5 607 $607 5 607 $6.14LowGrowth&High Phce 2013-2014 Apr 6 5.79 5 5.96 $5.79 $5.79 $5.79 $5.72 $5.72 $6.03 $5.83 $5.93LowGrowte&Higri Pete 2013-2014 May $5.73 $5,55 5 5.73 $5.73 $0.73 5 5.66 $5.66 $6.03 5 5.79 5 5.75LowGrowth&High Pece 2013-2014 .6w $5.78 $6.02 $579 $5.78 $5.78 $5.71 $5.71 6 604 $5.52 $5.63LowGrewtrSHrgrPnee2013-2014 Jul $haG $6.04 $5.80 0 5.55 $5.85 $573 5 573 5 604 $5.53 $5.65LowGrowth&High Proc 2013-2014 Aug $5.83 $854 5 5.83 $583 $5.83 $5.75 9 5.75 $6.04 $565 $5.87LowGrowth&High Pete 2013-2014 Sep $5.65 $6.04 $5.65 $5.85 5 0.80 $5.77 $0.77 $6.04 5 5.05 5 5.58LowGrowth&High Proc 2013-2014 Gtt $590 $$.is $5.90 $0 90 $5.90 $5.82 $5.82 $6.16 $5.94 $5.95LowGrowth6HighPrce2014-2010 Nec $6.25 $6.48 $6.20 $625 $6.25 5 6.18 5 6.15 $6.45 S 6.28 $6.30LowGrowth&High Price 2014-2010 Dec $6.55 $6.83 $658 $6.55 $6.58 $6.83 $6.43 $6.84 $6.70 $6.62LowGrowth&High Pete 2014-2015 Jan $7.31 $7.31 $7.31 $7.31 $7.31 $7.22 $722 $722 $7.22 $7.31LowGrowth&Higri Proc 35142015 FeD $727 $7.31 $7.27 $7.27 $7.27 $715 $7.18 $7.19 $7.19 $727LowGrowth6HighPete2014-2015 Mar $7.22 5 7.22 5 7.22 $7.22 0 7.22 5 7.13 5 7.13 $7.13 5 7.13 5 7.33LowGrowth&High Price 2014-20th Apr $6.85 $7.04 $6.85 $6.85 $6.85 $6.76 $6.76 $7.09 $6.87 S 6.89LowGrowthSHighPete2014-2010 May S 683 $7.04 5 6.63 5 6.83 5 6.93 0 6.74 S 674 5 7.09 5 6.66 $6.67LowGrewth&HrghPrce 2014-2515 3-ar $689 $757 $689 5 699 5 689$690 $650 S 7.09 $6.90 $692LowGrowth&High Pete 2014-2010 Jal $6.92 5 7.09 $6.92 $692 $692 $b.83 $6.63 $709 5 6.82 $6.85LowGrowth&High P0cc 2014-2515 Aug $6.93 $7.09 $6.93 $6.93 $6 93 $6.94 $6 94 $7.09 $6.83 $6.96LowGrowth&High Price 2014-2015 Sep $0.92 $7.10 $6.92 $6.92 $892 $6.03 5 603 5 7.10 $6.52 $695LowGrowth&High P6cc 2014-2015 Got $6.96 $7.24 $6.96 $6.96 $6 58 $6.98 $6.85 $7.24 $7.50 $7.02LowGrowth&High Pete 2015-2016 Nec $7.38 S 7.02 0 7.38 $7.35 $7.38 $7.29 $7.29 $7.62 $7.40 $743LowGrrwthhHighP6cc2015-2016 Dec $7.67 $7.93 $767 $767 $7.67 $7.93 $704 $7.83 $7.80 $772LowGrowth&HighPncw 2015-2016 .wrt $775 $793 5 7.75 0 775 $7.75 0 7.53 $7.65 $793 $7.64 5 7.70LowGrowth&High P6cc 2015-2016 Feb $7.71 $776 $7.71 $7.71 $7.71 $764 $7.61 $764 $763 5 7.72LowGrowth&High Price 2015-2016 Met S 7.60 5 7.65 5 7.68 0 7.68 $7.00 0 7.50 $7.50 5 7.50 $7.55 5 785LowGrowth&H9 Price 2015-2016 Apr $7.27 $7.51 $727 $7.27 $7.27 $7.18 $7,18 $7.55 $7,30 $7.31LowGwwte&HigePete 2010-2516 May $727 0 751 5 7.27 5 727 $7.27 5 716 S 715 $705 $7.35 0 731LowGrowth&High Proc 2015-20th Jan $7.29 $7.51 $7.29 $7.29 $7.29 $7.20 $7.20 $796 $7.32 $733LowGrowth&High Pete 2010-2016 Jul $7.32 $7.bh $1.32 $7.32 $7.32 $7.23 $7.23 $7.56 $7.34 $7.27LowGrowthSHighPrice2015-2516 Aug $7.34 $7.56 $7.34 $7.34 $7.34 $7.25 $7.25 $7.56 $7.35 $730LowGrowthSHighPete2015-2015 Sep $7.36 $7.56 $7.35 $7.38 $7.38 $7.29 $7.29 $7.56 $7.30 $742LowGrowth&High Price 201h-2b16 Got $743 $7.74 $743 $7,43 $743 $7,34 $7.34 $7.74 $7.47 $7,49LewGrowth6HighPrice2015-2017 Nov $701 $809 $701 $701 $7.81 $771 $771 $509 $7.54 $7.07LowGtewltr&High Proc 2016-2017 Dec $8.15 $8.42 $8.15 $815 $8.15 $8.42 $8.02 $8.42 $8.29 $8.21LowGrowth6HighPete2516-20it7 Jan $8.34 $0.43 $8.34 5 8.34 $5.34 0 6.43 $8.24 0 5.43 $8.37 $6.30LowGrowth&HighPdce 2516-2017 Feb $929 $834 $8.29$829 $829 S 520 $819 $820 S 8.20 $830LowGrowtnbHighPrice2016-2017 Mar $0.25 $8.25 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $010 $815 $615 $015 $6-25LowGrewth&H9hPecw 2016-2017 Apr $7.76 $8.04 $776 $776 $7.76 $766 $7.66 $8.06 $7.80 $7.81LowGrowth&High Prce 2016-2017 May $7,75 $8.04 $7.75 $7.75 $7.78 $7.68 $7.65 $006 $701 $7.83LowGrowth&High P6cc 2016-2017 3-jo $7,75 $9.05 $7.7b $7.79 $7.79 $7.69 $7.69 $8.06 $7.82 $7.84LowGrowth&High Price 2016-2017 Jul $7.80 $8.06 $7.80 $7.80 $7.80 $7.70 $7.70 $5.56 $7.52 $7.55LowGrowth&Hige P6cc 2016-2017 Aug $7.82 $8.07 $7.82 $7.82 $7,92 $7.72 $7.72 $8.07 $784 $7.87LowGrowth&High Pete 2016-2017 Sep 9 7.91 $5.07 $7.91 $7.91 $7.91 $7.92 $7.62 $5,57 $7.90 $794LawGrowth6HighP6cc
18 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II Low GROWTH —HIGH PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL
Monthly AvoIded Cost DetaIl 1!
2010$
Scenario GaeYear Month Klan,Falls La Grand.MedterdGTN MedferdNWP Rn.eburg WMDBeth WMDGTN WMDNWP 96MW Annual ORAnnual
Low Growth &High Price 2018-2019 Sep $8.30 $6.51 $8.30 $8.30 $8.31)$8.20 $8.20 $851 $6.30 $8.34
LowGrowth&HighPrice 2018-2015 Dcl $8.44 $881 $844 $844 $844 $834 $834 $881 $850 $8.82
Low Growlh&High Price 2018-2020 Nov $8.42 $8.71 $8.42 S 8.42 5 842 $832 $6.32 $6.71 $8.45 $0.48
LowG’owlhhHighPrice 2018-2020 Dec $886 $9r1 $886 $886 $896 $8.11 $870 $911 5 897 $891
Low Growth &High Price 2519-2020 Jon 5 9.56 $9.13 9 9.06 $9.56 $9.59 $9.13 $8.95 $913 $9.0/$9.07
LowG,owlh&HighPrrce 2019-2020 Feb $900 $954 $9.00 $900 $ego $687 $890 $687 $688 $9,01
Low GrowthS High Price 2019-2020 Mar $6.93 $993 $6.93 $6.93 $5.93 $6.93 9 6.63 $6.93 $6.83 9 6.93
LowOrowlh&HigbPrice 2019-2020 Apr $9.42 $662 $042 S 842 $642 $832 $8.32 $962 $842 $846
Low GrowthS High Price 2019-2020 May S 9.43 $6.58 $8.43 $8.43 $6.43 $8.33 $6.33 $8.62 $8.43 $8.46
LowGrvwth &High Price 2519-2020 Jorr $843 $858 $843 $643 $8.43 $8.33 $833 9 8.63 $8.43 $846
Low Growth &High Price 2519-2020 Jul $6.45 S 6.50 $8.40 $8.40 $6.40 $8.30 $6.35 $8.63 $641 $8.43
LowGrowthhHighPrice 2519-2020 Aug $844 $859 $644 $844 $844 $8.34 $8.34 $863 $944 $647
Low Growth &High Price 2519-2520 Sep $856 5 663 5 8.56 $856 $6.56 $646 $6.46 $8.63 $652 $6.56
LowGrowth&High Price 2019-2020 Dcl $669 $8.93 $864 $8.69 $869 $656 $8.58 $8.93 $8.70 $673
Low Growth &High Price 2026-2021 Nov $6.68 $6.92 $8.66 $6.60 $6.66 $6.57 $6.57 $8.92 $6.69 $6.72
LowG’osrihSHighPrice 2020-2021 Dec $914 $9.35 $914 $914 $8.14 $9.35 0 6.59 $9.35 $9.23 $9.18
Low Growth &High Price 2029-2521 Jeri $9,31 $93/$9.31 $9.31 $9.31 $9.37 $9.20 $9.37 $932 $9.32
LowG-owrh&HighPrice 2020-2021 Feb $$26 $930 $926 $926 5 926 $912 $915 $912 $913 $627
LowGrowlh &High Price 2025-2021 Mar $9.21 $921 $921 $9.21 $9.21 $910 $910 $9.19 S 9.10 $621
Loworowth&HighPrice 2020-2021 Apr $8.76 $6.86 $670 $870 $876 $8.59 $8.59 $906 $868 $873
Low Growth &High Price 2020-2021 Mob $671 $8.83 $670 $8.70 $8.70 $665 $8.60 $66/$8.69 $8.73
Loworiowlh&High Price 2920-2021 Jeri $8.69 $879 $8.69 $8.69 $9.89 $8.58 $8.58 $8.87 $8.68 $8,71
Low Growth 6 High Price 2026-2021 Jui $8.66 $8.61 $6.68 $6.66 $6.68 $8.57 $6.57 $667 $8.67 $870
Low Growth &High Price 2020-2521 Aug $8.72 $8.89 $8.71 $8.71 $8.71 $8.61 $8.61 $8.87 $8.70 $8.74
Low Growth 6 High Price 2020-2021 Sep $8.86 $8.66 $6.62 $6.62 $8.62 $6.76 $6.76 $868 $6.85 $6.64
LcwGrowth&HighPhce 2920-2021 Dcl $8.96 $918 $8.98 $898 $898 $8.88 8 8.88 $9.18 $8.98 $9.02
Low Growth 6 High Price 2521-2523 Nov $6.57 $9.18 $897 $6.97 $8.97 $687 $6.67 $916 $6.97 $901
LowGriowth6Higlr Price 2021-2033 Dec $941 $9.61 $9.41 $941 $941 $6.61 $9.36 $961 $9.49 $945
Low Growth &Higri Price 2021-2922 Jeri $9.59 $9.63 $6.56 $9.56 $9.56 $6.63 $9.46 $9.63 $956 $0.09
LowGroeth&l-6g6 Price 2021-2022 Feb $9.53 $6.56 $9.53 $9.53 $9.53 $9.35 $9.41 $35 $9.37 $653
LowGrowth &High Price 2021-2022 Mar $9.43 $9.43 $943 $9.43 $9.43 $9.32 $9.32 $9 32 $6.32 $9.43
Lcworowth&HighPñce 2021-2022 Apr $892 $906 $8.92 $892 $692 $882 $882 $908 $890 $895
LowGriowth &High Price 2021-2522 Map $8.64 $9.53 $6.90 $6.90 $6.94 $8.84 $6.84 $9.08 $892 $8.96
LowGrowlh&HighPrice 2021-2522 Sic $666 $9.04 $955 $8.95 $8.95 $696 $8.86 $9.00 $893 $997
LosriGrowth0HighPrice 2021-2522 261 $693 $9.53 $693 $993 $6.93 $8.93 $8.93 $9.59 $891 $695
LowGrowth SHigh Price 2021-2022 Aug $8.98 $9.09 $896 $8.98 $8.98 $850 $8.88 $9.09 $8.95 $9.00
LowGrowth &High Price 2021-2522 Sep $9.15 $9.11 $9.11 $all $9.11 $9.04 $9.04 $9.11 $909 $0.12
LowGrowth&High Price 2021-3032 Dcl $923 $937 $9-23 $923 $9.23 S 9-12 $9.12 $9.37 $920 $9-26
LowGrowth &High Price 2022-2023 Nov $9.28 $640 $9.26 $0.26 $9.26 $9.15 $9.15 $9.40 $9.23 $828
Low Growth &High P9cc 2022-2023 Dec $9.61 $977 $9.61 $9.61 $501 $9.77 $9.45 $9.77 $9.66 $9.64
Low Growth 6 High Price 2022-2023 Jori $9.77 $9.60 $0.77 S 9.77 $9.77 $9.79 $9.65 $9.79 $9.75 $9.76
LowGrowth&HighP6ce 2022-2023 Feb $971 $974 $9.71 $9.71 $9.71 $958 $9.59 $956 $957 $6.71
Low Growth &High Price 2022-2023 Mar $9.66 $996 $9.66 $9.66 $966 $9.54 $954 $9.55 $9.54 $966
LowGrowth6 High Price 2022-2023 Ape $9.16 $620 $616 $916 $9.16 $905 $9-00 $923 $911 $9.17
LowGrowth &Higri Price 2022-2623 May $5.19 $9.20 $9.16 $616 $516 $9.09 $9.00 $9.23 $913 $9.17
LoroGrcwlh&High Price 2022-2023 3jri $9.17 $9,16 $916 $916 $9,16 $9.06 $9.00 $9.23 $912 $9.16
Low Growth &High Price 2022-2023 3o $9.16 $9,17 $9.16 $9.16 $9.16 $9.05 $9.05 $9.24 5 5.11 $916
Loworowth&HighPrice 2022-2023 Aug $9.22 $622 $9.17 $617 9 917 $911 $911 $924 $915 $919
LowGriowth&r-ngriPrice 2022-2023 Sep $9.36 $9.29 $9.29 $9.29 $929 $9.25 $9.25 $9.29 0 9-29 $930
LowGrowlh&HighPrice 3032-2033 Dci $944 $653 $944 $9.44 $944 $933 $9,33 $953 $940 $944
LowGrowth &High Price 2023-2024 Nriu $942 $5.51 $9.42 $9.42 $9.42 $9.31 $9.31 $9.51 0 9.36 $9.44
LowGrowth&HighPrce 2023-2024 Dec $9.96 $658 $9.88 $988 $968 $698 $972 $9,99 $9,99 $995
LowGrowth &High Price 2023-2024 Jari $10.13 $10.13 $10.13 $10.13 $10.13 $1003 $10.01 $16.03 $10.03 $10.13
Low Growth &High Price 2023-2024 Feb $10.07 $1008 $10.07 $10.07 $1007 $9.94 9 995 $9.94 $694 $10,07
Low Growth &High Price 2023-2524 Mar $10.05 $1002 $10.05 $1005 $10.05 $9.93 $9.93 $5.53 $9.93 $1004
Low Growth &High Price 2023-2024 Apr $9.55 $957 $9.55 $9.5$$9.55 $9.43 $943 $9.62 $9.50 $9.59
Low Growth 6 High Price 2023-2024 May $9.55 $9,53 $9.53 $9,93 $9.53 $943 $9.43 $9 63 $9.50 $9.53
LowGrowth&HrghPrice 2023-2024 Juri $958 $953 $953 $9.53 $9.53 $946 $946 $963 $9.52 $954
LowGrowth&HighPrice 2023-2024 Jui $954 $954 $954 $954 $954 $9,43 $9.42 $963 $9.49 $954
LowGrowth&Hg Price 2023-2024 Aug $9.60 $9.57 $956 $956 $9.96 $649 $9.40 $963 $9.93 $9.57
Low Growtri &High Price 2623-2024 Sep $9.60 $9.64 $961 $9.61 $9.61 $6.56 $9.56 $5.94 $9.59 $9.63
Low Growth &High Price 2023-2024 Dcl $9.81 $9.85 $581 $9.81 $9.81 $9.70 $9.70 $9.85 $h/b $9.62
Low Growth &High Price 2024-2020 Nov $9.60 $9.63 $980 $960 $9.80 $9.65 S 9.69 $983 $9.73 $9.81
Low Growth &High Price 3034-3035 Dec $1021 $10.38 $15.21 $1021 $10.21 $10.28 $1006 $15.28 $10.21 $10.22
Low Growth &High Price 2024—2025 Jeri S 10.36 $1036 $1036 $10.36 $10.39 $1032 $10.24 $1032 $15.30 $1037
Low Growth &High Price 2524-2025 Feb $1030 $10,31 $1030 $1030 $10.30 $10,16 $10.19 $10.19 $10.18 $10.30
Low Growth &High Price 2024-2025 Muri 5 10.29 $10.23 $10.26 $1029 $10.29 5 1017 $10.17 $1018 S 10.17 $10.28
LowGrowth&HighPrice 2024-2625 Apr $9.76 $976 $976 $9.76 $9.76 $964 $964 $9.82 $9.76 $9.76
Low Growth &High Price 2024-2025 Moy S 9,75 $6.74 $874 5 9.74 $9.74 5 9.63 5 9.63 $962 $9.70 $9.74
Low Growth &High Price 2024-2025 Sin $9.78 $574 0 9.74 S 9.74 $9.74 $9.66 5 9.66 $9.82 $9.72 $9.75
Low Growth &High Price 2024292$Jul 5 9,77 $9,74 5 9.74 $9,74 $974 5 9.65 $965 $962 $9.71 $9.75
Low Growth &High Price 2024-2525 Aug $9.82 $9.74 $9.74 $9.74 $9.74 $9.71 $9.71 $9.83 $9.75 $9.76
Low Growth &High Price 2024-2025 Sep $990 $5.93 $9,63 $9.03 $9.03 $9.79 $9.79 $963 $9.80 $9.64
LowGrowth&HighPhce 2024-2525 Dcl $1005 $10.03 $10.03 $1003 $1503 $9.93 $993 $10.53 5 9.96 $10.03
Low Growth &High Price 2525-2026 Nov $10.12 $10.24 $1012 5 10.12 $10.12 $10,00 $10.00 $1024 $10.08 $10,14
Low Growth &Hig Price 2528-2026 Dec $10.57 $10.73 $1057 $10.57 $10.57 $1073 $10.39 $1073 $10.62 $1060
LowGrowth &Higri Price 2025-2026 So $11.03 $11,03 $1103 $11.03 $11.03 $10.90 $10.90 $1060 $10.96 $11.03
LowGrowth &High Price 2025-2026 Feb $1596 $1095 $10.66
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 19
APPENDIX 6.4 II Low GROWTH —HIGH PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL
Scenario Gas Year Month Kiam Falls La Greed.M,dford GTh
Monthly Avoided Cost DetaIl 1!
2010$
Medfnrd NWP Rn.ebnrg WMD Both
_______________
‘vAlID GTN WMD NWP WMD Annual OR AnnualLuwt3itwTh8HlghPOce2026-2027 Feb S 1150 $1152$1150 $1150 $1150 $1134 $11.36 $11.34 5 1135 $1150LowGrowth&High Price 2026-2027 Mar $1145 S 1146 $11.45 $11.45 6 11.45 $11.31 S 11.31 S 11.31 $11.31 $11.46LowGrowth&High Price 2526-2527 Apr $1068 $1097 $10.88 $1068 $10.68 $1076 $1076 $1102 5 10.65 $10.90LowGrowth&High Price 2026-2027 May $10.89 $10.88 S 10.88 $10.89 $10.89 S 10.71 $10.77 $11.03 $10.85 $10,91LowGrowth&High Price 2026-2027 J00 $1085 $1095 $10,89 $10.89 S 10.88 $1077 $1077 9 11.03 $10.86 $1081LawGrowth&High Price 2026-2027 Jul 9 10.88 9 10.86 $10.86 $10.88 $10.86 9 10.74 S 1014 S 11.03 $10.63 $1088LowGrowth&High Price 2026-2021 Aug $10.94 $11.03 $1083 $1093 5 1083 $10.81 $10.81 5 11 03 $10.88 $10%Low Growth &High Pete 2026-2027 Sep S 11.13 $11.09 S 11.09 $11,09 S 11.09 S 1186 5 11.00 5 11.09 $11.03 $11 10LowGruwth&High Price 2026-2027 Oct $11.24 $11.38 $11.24 $11.24 $11.24 $11.11 $11.11 $11.38 0 11.20 $1127LowGrriwtri&High Pnce 2021-2028 Nec $11.26 S 11.34 $11.26 $1125 S 11.25 $11.12 5 11.12 $11.34 S 11.19 $11.21LowGrowrh&HighPrice 2027-2028 Dec S 1176 0 1188 $1176 S 11,76 $1176 $1189 $11.58 5 1188 $1178 5 1178LowGrowth&High Price 2027-0026 Jue 5 1220 S 12.20 S 12.20 S 12.20 $12.20 $12.06 S 1209 S 1206 $laos 0 12.20LowGrowth8HighPrice2027-2026 Feb S 12.16 5 1217 $12.15 $1215 $12.15 5 I1.86 $12.01 $11 96 S 11.98 $12,16LowGrowth&High Pete 2021-2028 Mar S 12.08 S 12.06 S 12.08 S 12.08 S 12.08 S 11,94 S 11.94 S 11.85 S 11.94 S laosLowGrowth&High Price 2027-2028 Apr $11.48 $11.51 S 1146 $11.46 S 11.46 S 11.32 $1132 S 11.56 S 1140 $11.47LowGrowth&High Price 2027-2028 Map S 11.48 5 11.51 $11.48 S 11.48 S 11.48 S 11.34 S 11.34 5 11.56 S 11.42 5 1148Loworowih&High Price 2027-2026 Jun 5 1149 $11.50 $1149 $1149 S 1149 $1135 5 11.35 $11.57 $1142 $1149LowGrowth&High Price 2027-2029 Jul S 11.45 S 11.50 S 11.45 $1145 $11.45 5 11.31 5 11.31 S 1157 S 11.40 S 11.46LowGrowrh&High Price 2027-2028 Aug $11.52 S 11.57 5 11.51 5 1151 $11.51 S 11.38 $11.38 S 11.57 S 11.45 $11.52LowGrowtri&High Price 2021-2028 Sep $11.71 S 11.12 S 11.72 $11.72 5 11./2 5 11.64 S 11.64 S 11./2 0 11.66 S 11./3LowGrowth&High Price 2027-2029 Oct 5 1187 S 1193 S 11,67 S 1187 $11.87 5 11.73 S 11 73 S 11.93 $1190 $1168LowGrowth&High Price 2028-2029 Nov S 1189 $11.91 5 11.69 S 1189 5 11.89 5 11.16 5 11 76 5 11.91 5 11.80 S 11 89LowGrowth&High Price 2028-2029 Dec 5 12.40 5 12.49 S 12.40 5 12.40 $12,40 S 1249 5 12.21 $12.49 $12.40 S 12.42LowGrowth&High Pete 2028-2029 Jail 5 12.85 S 12.85 S lass 5 12.85 S 12.85 $12.10 S 12.10 S 12.10 S 12.10 S 12.85LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2029 P.S 5 12.77 5 12.77 5 12.77 5 12,77 $12,77 S 12.61 5 12.62 5 1261 $12.61 5 12.77LowGrowth&High Price 2028-2029 Mar S 12.14 5 12.69 S 12.14 $12.74 S 12.14 5 labS S 12.60 0 12.61 S 12.60 S 1273LowGrowth&High Pnce 2028-2029 Apr $12.07 $1210 $12.07 $1207 $1207 $11.93 $11.93 $12.18 $12.01 $12.06LowGrowlh&High Price 2028-2029 Mup $l08 S iaos 5 1108 $1108 $iaos S 11.94 S 11.94 $iam S 1202 6 12.08LowGrowth&High Price 2028-2029 Jun $108 $12.08 $12.06 $1208 5 1208 $11.94 $1186 S 1218 $1102 $l28LowGrowtp&High Price 2028-2029 Jul $12.07 $12.10 $12.01 5 12.07 $12.07 6 11.83 $11.63 $12.19 5 12.01 5 1286LowGrowth&High Price 2028-2029 Aug $1214 6 1117 5 1114 5 1114 $1114 S 1100 $12.00 $1119 5 1209 $12.15LowGrowth&High Price 2026-2029 Sep $1221 $12.25 $12.25 $12.26 $12.20 6 113 $12.13 9 12.25 $12.17 $1225LowGrowth&High Price 2028-2029 Oct $12.46 $12.50 $12.46 $12.46 $1246 $12.31 $12.31 5 12.50 $12.38 5 1247LowGrowth&High Prrce 2029-2030 Noo $12.48 $12.46 $12.48 S 12.48 $12.48 $1233 $12.33 $12.46 $12.38 $12.48LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2630 Dec $13.02 $13.13 $13.02 S 13.02 $1302 $1313 5 12.83 $13.13 S 1103 $13.04LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 Jun 5 13.5/$13.56 5 13.06 $13.56 $13.66 $13.41 $13.41 $1341 $1341 $1366LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 Feb $13.50 $1350 $1150 $1350 $1150 5 1131 5 13,34 $13.31 $1332 $1300LowGrowth&High Pete 2029-2030 Mar $13.44 $1333 $13.44 $1344 $13.44 $13.30 $13.30 $13.31 $13.30 $13.42LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 Apr $12.79 $12.79 $12.79 $12.79 $12 79 $12.64 $12.64 S 12.69 5 12.72 $12 79LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 May $12.80 9 12.78 $12.78 $12.18 $12./8 $12.65 $12.66 S 12.89 5 1213 $12/8LowGrowth&High Pnce 2029-2030 Jun $12.80 5 12,78 S 12.78 $12.78 $12.78 $1295 S 12 65 S 12 89 S 12,73 $12.79LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 Jul $1279 $12.19 $12.79 9 12/9 6 12.76 9 12.64 5 1294 $1250 5 12.72 $12.79LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 Aug $12.86 $12 83 $12.83 $12 93 $12.83 $12.71 $12 71 $12.90 $12 77 $12.83LowGrowth&High P0cc 2029-2030 Sep 5 13.02 $1301 $13.01 $13.01 $1301 $1287 5 12.8/$13.01 $12.92 S 13.01LowGrowth&High Price 2029-2030 Oct $13.18 $1319 $1318 $13.18 $13.18 $13.03 $13.03 $13,19 $13.08 $13.19LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Noo $13.19 $13.13 S 13.19 S 13.19 $13.19 $13.04 $13.04 S 13.13 $13.0/$13.18LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Dec 5 13.76 S 13.74 S 13.75 $13.75 5 13.75 $13.74 $13.90 $13.74 $13.69 $1375LawGrowth&High Price 2030-2g31 Jun $1360 $13.66 $13 69 6 1358 $13.69 5 13.56 5 1345 $13 56 $13.62 $1358LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 P.S $1352 $13.48 $13.53 $1353 $13.53 $13.33 5 13.37 $13.33 $1334 $13.52LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Muc $13.43 $13.31 $13.43 5 13.43 $13.43 $13.31 S 13.31 $13.31 $1331 $13.41LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Apr $12.79 $12.79 $12.79 $12.79 5 12.79 $12.64 $12 64 $12.92 $12.73 $12 79LowGrowto&High Pete 2030-2031 Guy $12.90 $12/9 $12.79 $12./9 S 12.19 $12.65 $tabS 6 12.92 $1214 $12/9LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Jue $1294 $12.79 $12.79 $12.79 $12.79 $12.69 $13.99 $13.92 $12.77 $1280LowGrowth&High Poce 2030-2031 Jui $12.80 $12.79 $12.79 S 12./9 $12./h $1265 $1266 $12.93 $12/4 $1219LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Aug $12.88 $12.82 $12.82 $12.82 $12.82 $12.73 $12.73 $12.93 $12.79 $12.83LowGrowth8HighPoce2030-2031 Sep $13.05 $13.00 5 13 00 $13 00 $13.00 $12.90 $12.90 $13.00 $12.93 $13.01LowGrowth&High Price 2030-2031 Oct S 13.24 $13.20 $13.20 $13.20 $13.20 $1308 $13.08 $13.20 $1312 $13.21
1?Aroidwt costs showo before Erririroeroentul beteroulilies udder.
20 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II EXPECTED MONTHLY DETAIL
Appendix 6.4-Monthly Avoided Cost Detail 1/
2010$
ScenarIo Gaxyear Month Ktum Falls Lx Grande Medford GTN Madford NWP Roxeburg WMO Both WAIIO 0Th WARD NWP WARD Annual OR Annual
Expected 2011-2012 Nov $2,97 $299 $2.97 $2.97 $2.97 $2.95 $2.93 $2.99 $2.96 $2.98
Expected 2011-2012 Dec $283 $302 $263 $2.63 $283 $3.02 $276 $302 $293 $2.67
Expected 2011-2012 Jan $2.35 $2.55 $2.35 $2.35 $2.35 $2.55 5 2.32 $2.55 $2.47 $2.39
Expected 2011-2Ol2Feb $269$2.92$289$289$289$2.66$285$289 $2675 290
Expected 2011-2012 Mar $2.95 $2 95 $2.95 $2.95 $2.95 $2.91 $2.91 $291 $2 91 $2.95
Expected 2011-2012 Apr $244 $2.59 $2.44 $244 $2.44 S 241 $241 $287 $256 $247
Expected 2011-2012 May $2.55 $2.80 $2.55 $2.55 $2.55 $2.52 $2.52 $2.87 $2.64 $2.60
Expected 2011-2012 Jun $2.70 $2.87 $2.70 $2.70 $2.70 $266 $266 $2.87 $273 $2.73
Expected 2011-2012 Jul $2.76 $2.88 $2.76 $2.76 $2.76 $2.72 $2.72 $288 0 2.77 $2.78
Expected 2011-2Ol2Aug $264 $268 $264 $2.64 $264 $240 $2.60 $288 $2.69 $268
Expected 2011-2012 Sep $253 $2.78 $2.53 $2.53 $2.53 $2.50 $2.50 $2.88 $2.63 $2.58
Eupnctnd 2011-2012 Oct $266 $2.90 $2.66 $2.66 $2.66 $262 $262 $290 $271 $270
Expected 2512-2013 Nov $312 0 3.32 0 3.12 0 3.12 S 312 0 315 $307 $232 5 3.18 $316
Expected 2012-2Ol3Dec $326$3.66$329$329$3299 3.66 $317$3.66 $3.50$3.36
Expected 2012-2013 Jun $3.45 $3.79 $3.45 $3.45 $3,45 $3.79 $3.41 $3.79 $3.67 $3.52
Expected 20122013 Feb $361 5 3.83 $3.61 $361 $3.61 $374 $3.55 $3.83 $3.71 $3.65
Expected 2012-2013 Mar $3.67 $3.82 $3.67 $3.67 $367 $3.62 $3.62 $3.62 S 3.69 $3.70
Expected 2012-2Ol3Apr $391 $3.79 $361 $361 $361 $3.56 $356 $3.82 $3.65 $3.64
Expecteo 2012-2013 May $3.59 $3 82 $3.59 $3.59 $3.59 $3,54 $3 54 $3-82 $3.63 $3.63
Expected 2012-2Ol3Jun $360 $3.82 $3.60 $360 $360 $3.55 $355 $382 $364 $364
Expected 2012-2013 Jul $3.63 $3.82 $3.63 $3.63 $3.63 $3.58 $3.58 $3 62 $3.66 $3.67
Expected 2012-2013 Aug $3 63 $3.82 $3.63 $3.63 $3 63 $3 58 $3.58 $3.82 $3.66 $3,67
Expected 2012-2013 Sep $3.63 $363 $363 $3.63 $3.83 $3.58 $3.56 $3.83 $3.66 $3.67
Expected 2012-2013 Oct $3.66 $3.89 $3.66 $3.66 $3.66 $3.61 $3.61 $3 89 $3.70 $sio
Expected 2013-2014 Nov $3 85 $4.06 $3.85 $3.85 $3.85 $3.88 $3.60 $4 06 $3 92 $3.89
Expected 2013-2014 Dec $397 $418 $297 $3.97 $397 $418 $3.88 $418 $408 $4.02
Expected 2013-2014 Jan $394 $4.17 $394 $3.94 $3.94 $4.17 $3.99 $4.17 $4.08 $399
Expected2Ol3-2014Fpb $395$4.07$3.95$3.95$395$400$389$406 $399$3.96
Expected 2013-2014 Mar $3.95 $4.05 $3.95 5 3.95 $3.95 5 3.90 $3.90 S 4.05 $3.95 $3.97
Expected 2013-2Ol4Apr $3.79 $398 $379 $319 $3.79 $374 $3.74 $4.05 $384 $3.83
Expected 2013-2014 May $3.74 $4.00 $3.74 $3.74 $3.74 $3.69 $3.69 $4.65 $3.81 $3.79
Expected 2013-2Ol4Jjxt $377 $4.02 $3.77 $3.77 $3.77 $3.72 $372 $4.05 $3.83 $3.82
Expected 2013-2014 Jut $380 $4.05 $3.60 $3.80 $360 $3.75 $3.75 $405 $3-65 $365
Expected 2013-2014 Aug $380 3 4.05 $3.80 $3 80 $3.80 $3.75 $3.75 $4.05 $3.85 $3.85
Expected 2013-2014 Sep $381 $4.06 $3.81 $3.81 $381 $3.76 $3.76 $406 $3.86 $386
Expected 2013-2014 Oct $3.83 $4.12 $3.83 $3.83 $3.83 $378 $3.78 $412 $390 $3.89
Expected 2014-2015 Nov $403 $428 $4.03 $4.03 $4.03 $4.06 $3.97 $4.26 $4.10 $4.08
Expected 2014-2015 Dec $4.07 $4.32 $4.07 $4.07 $4.07 $4.32 $3.97 $4.32 $420 $4.12
Expected 2014-2015 Jan $4.07 $4.34 $4.07 $4.07 $4.07 $4.34 $401 $4.34 $4.23 $4.12
Expected 2014-2015 Feb $4.08 $4.23 $4.08 $408 $408 $4,17 $4.02 $4.23 $414 $4.11
Expected 2014-2015 Mar $4.09 $4.21 $4.09 $4.09 $4.09 $4.03 $4.03 $4.21 $4.09 $4.11
Expected 20t4-2OlSApr $394$4.15$3.94$3.94$394$3.89$389$421 $400$399
Expected 2014-2015 May $293 $4.17 $3.93 $393 $3.93 $3.88 $3.88 $421 $3.99 $3.98
Expected 2014-2015 Jun $349 $4.19 $3.99 $3.99 $3.99 $3.93 $393 $421 $403 $4.03
Excected 2014-2015 Jxt $4.02 $4 21 $402 $4.02 $4.02 $3.96 $396 $4.21 $4.05 $4 06
Expected 2014-2OlSAug $4.01 $4.22 $401 $401 $4.01 $395 $3.95 $4.22 $404 $405
Expected 2014-2015 Sep $3.98 $422 $398 $3.98 $3.98 $3.92 $392 S 422 $402 $4.02
Expected 2014-20150ct $399 $4.30 $399 $3.99 $399 $3.93 $3.93 $430 $405 $405
Expected 2015-2016 Nov $4.16 $4.44 $4.16 $4.16 $416 $4.21 $411 $4.44 $425 $4.21
Expected 2015-2016 Dec $4.21 $449 $4.21 $421 $4.21 $449 $4.11 $4.49 $436 $427
Expected 2015-2016 Jun $4.19 $4.51 $4.19 $4.19 $4.19 $4.51 $4.14 $4.51 $4.38 $4,35
Expected 2015-2016 FeE $420 $4.47 $4.20 $4.20 $4.20 $437 $4.15 $4.47 $4.33 $425
Expected 2015-2016 Mar $4.26 $4.45 $4.26 $4.26 $4.26 $4.21 $4.21 $4.45 $4.29 $4.30
Expected 2015-2016 Apr $411 $4.38 $411 $4.11 $411 $4.06 $4.06 $4.45 $4.79 $4.16
Expected 2015-2016 May $4.12 $439 $4.12 $412 $412 $4.07 $407 $4.45 $4.19 $4.17
Expected 2015-2OlEJun $416 $441 $416 $416 $416 $411 $411 $446 $4.22 $421
Expected 2015-2016 Jut $4.18 $4.46 $4.18 $4.18 $418 $4.13 $4.13 $4.46 $424 $4.24
Expected 2015-2016 Aug $4.18 $446 $418 $4.18 $418 $413 $4.13 $446 $4.24 $4.24
Expected 2015-2016 sep $4.17 $4.46 $4.17 $4,17 $4.17 $4.12 $412 $4.46 $4.23 $4.23
Expected 2015-2OlEOct $418 $4.51 $4.18 $418 $418 $413 $413 $4.51 $4.25 $4.25
Expected 2016-2017 Nnx $4.36 $487 $435 $438 $4.35 $4.41 $430 S 4.67 $446 S 442
Exyectec2$16-2Ot7Dec $440$4.69$440$440$440$4.69$429$469 $456$446
Expected 2016-2017 Jan $437 $471 $437 $437 $437 $471 $432 $471 $458 $444
Expected 2016-2017 Feb $439 $464 $439 $439 $4.39 $458 $434 $464 $452 $444
Expected 2016-2017 Mar $4.41 $4.62 $4.41 $4.41 $4.41 $4.36 $4.36 $4.62 $445 $4.46
Expected 2016-2017 Apr $4,24 $456 $424 $4.24 $4.24 $4.19 $4.19 $4.62 $4.33 $4.30
Expected 2016-2017 May $429 $4.59 $4.29 $4.29 $4.29 $4.24 $4.24 $4.62 $437 $435
Expected 2016-2017 Jun $4.32 $4 61 $4 32 $4.32 $4 32 $4.27 $427 $4.82 $4.39 $4.38
Expected 2016-2017 Jul $4.35 $4.63 $4.35 $435 $435 $4.30 $4.30 $4.63 $441 $4.41
Eupected 2016-2017 Aug $435 $463 $435 $4.35 $435 $430 $430 $463 $441 $441
Expected 2016-2017 Sep $4.35 $4.63 $4.35 $4 35 $4.35 $4.30 $4.30 $4.63 $4.41 $441
Expected 2016-2017 Oct $436 $472 $436 $436 $436 $431 $431 $472 $445 $444
Expected 2017-2018 Nox $4.51 0 468 $451 $4.51 $4.51 $4.58 $4.45 $4.88 $4.64 $4.58
Expected 2017-2018 Dec $462 $4.94 $4.62 $462 $462 $494 $4.49 $4.94 $479 $468
Expected 2017-2Ol8Jan $460 S 495 $460 $460 $460 $495 $454 S 495 $482 S 467
Expected 2017-2018 Feb S 463 $489 $463 S 463 S 4.63 S 483 S 457 $4.89 $476 $468
Expected 2017-2018 Mar $463 $4.86 $4.63 $4.63 $4.63 $487 $4.57 $4.86 $4,67 $4.66
Expected 2017-2018 Apr $446 $481 $4.46 $446 $446 $440 $440 $486 $455 $453
Expected 2017-2016 May $4.50 $483 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $444 $4.44 $4.87 $4.08 $456
Expected 2017-2018 Jun S 4.54 $485 $454 $454 $454 $448 $448 $487 $461 $460
Expected 2017-2018 Jul S 4.57 $4,87 $4.57 $4.57 $4.57 $4.51 $4.51 $487 5 4.63 5 4.63
Expected 2017-2018 Aug $458 $487 $458 S 458 $456 $452 $452 $467 $464 $4.64
Expected 2017-2016 Sep $457 $4.67 $4.57 S 4.57 $457 S 4.51 $4.51 $4.87 $4.63 S 4.63
APPENDIX 6.4 II EXPECTED MONTHLY DETAIL
Appendix 6.4 -Monthly Avoided Cost Detail It
2O12AvIsTANATurLGAsIRP II 21
2010$
Scenario GasYear Month lOam Falls La Grande Madford GIN Medford NWP Roaeburo WNID Both WNID GIN WNID NWP WAIID Annual ORAnnualExpected2017-2018 Oct $458 $4.97 $4.58 $458 $458 $4.52 $452 5 4.97 $457 5 466Expected2018-2019 Nec $4.69 $5.08 $4.89 $4.69 $4.69 $4.76 $4.63 $5.08 $4.82 $4.77Expected2018-2019 Dxc $4.84 $5.15 $4.84 $4,84 $4.84 $5.15 $4.70 $5,15 $5.00 $4.90Expected2018-2019 Jan $4.78 $5.16 $4.78 $4.78 $4.78 $5.16 $4.72 $5.18 $5.01 $4.86Expected2018-2019 Feb $4.81 $5.09 $481 $4.81 $4.81 $505 $4.75 $508 $4.96 $4.87Expected2018-2019 Mar $4.80 $5.06 $4.80 $4.80 $4.80 $4,74 $4.74 $5.06 $4.85 $4.85Expected2018-2019 Apr $4.63 $4.96 $4.63 $463 $4.63 $457 S 4.57 $5.06 $473 $4.70Excected2018-2019 May $4.67 $4.96 $4.61 S 4.67 $4.67 $4.61 $4.61 $5.06 $4.76 $4.73Expected2018-2019 Jun $4.70 $4.99 $4.70 $4 70 $4.70 $4.64 $4.64 $5.06 $4.78 $4,76Expected2018-2019 Jut S 4.74 $5.06 $4.74 $4.74 $4.74 5 4.68 $4.88 $5.06 $4.81 $4.81Expected2018-2019 Aug $4.75 $5.06 $4.75 $4 75 $4.75 $4.69 $4.69 $5.06 $4.82 $4.81Expected2018-2019 Sep $4.68 $5.06 $4.68 $4.68 $4.68 $4.62 $4.62 $5.06 $4.77 $4.76Expected2018-2019 Oct $4.69 $5.10 $4.69 $4.69 $4.69 $4.83 $4.63 $5.10 $4.79 $4.77Expected2019-2020 Nec $4.78 $5.11 $4.78 $4.78 $4.78 $4.84 $4.72 $5.11 $4.89 $4.85Expected2019-2020 Dec $4.92 $5.18 $4.92 $4.92 $4,92 $5.18 $4.77 $5.18 $5.04 S 4,97Expected2019-2020 Jan S 4.90 $5.16 S 4,90 $4.90 $4.90 $5.16 $4.83 $5.16 $5.05 $4.95Expected2019-2020 Feb $4.93 $5.08 $4.93 $4.93 $4.93 $5.04 $4.86 $5.05 $4.98 $4.96Expected2019-2020 Mar $4.86 $5.00 $4.86 $4.86 $4.86 $4.80 $4.80 $5.00 $4.87 $4.89Expected2019-2020 Apr $4.72 $4.95 $4.72 $4 72 $4.72 $4,66 $4,66 $5.00 $4.77 $4.77Expected2019-2020 May $4.75 $4.93 $4,75 $4.75 $4.75 $4.69 $4.69 $5.00 $4.79 $4.19Expected2019-2020 Jun $4.79 $4.95 $4,79 $4,79 $4.79 $4,73 $4,73 S 5.00 $4.82 $4.83Expected2019-2020 Jut $4.83 $5.00 $4.83 $4.83 $4.83 $4.77 $4.71 $5.00 $4.85 $4.87Expected2019-2020 Aug $4,84 $5.00 $4.84 $4,84 $4.84 $4.78 $4.78 $5.00 $4.86 $4.88Expected2019-2020 Sep $4.77 $5.00 $4.11 $4.77 $4.77 $4.71 $4.71 $5.00 $4.81 $4.82Expected2019-2020 Oct $4.78 $5.06 $4.78 S 4.78 $4.78 $4.72 $4.72 $5.06 $4 83 $4.84Expected2020-2021 Nec $4.91 $5.18 $4.91 $4.91 S 4.91 $4.94 $4.84 $5.18 $4.99 $4.96Expected2020-2021 Dec $5.04 $5.27 $5,04 $5.04 $5.04 $5.27 $4.90 $5.27 $5.15 $5.09Expected2020-2021 Jan $5.00 $5.25 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.25 $4.93 $5.25 $5.14 $5.05Expected2020-2021 Feb $5.03 $5.13 $5.03 $5.03 $5.03 $5.12 $4,96 $5.12 $5.07 $5.05Expected2020-2021 Mer $5.01 $5.06 $5.01 $5.01 $5.01 $4.94 $4.94 $5.06 $4.98 $5.02Expected2020-2021 Apr $4.84 $5.05 $4.84 $4.84 $4.84 $4.78 $4,78 $5.06 $4.88 $4.88Expected2020-2021 May $4.88 $5.04 $4.88 $4.88 $4.88 $4.82 $4.82 $5.06 $4.90 $4.92Expected2020-2021 Jun $4.93 $5.07 $4 89 $4.89 $4.89 $4.86 $4.86 $5.07 $4.93 $4.93Expected2020-2021 Jut $4.91 $5.07 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $4.90 $4.90 $5.01 S 4,95 $4,99Expected2020-2021 Aug $4.99 $5.07 $4 99 $4.99 $4.99 $4.92 $4.92 $5.07 $4.97 $5.00Expected2020-2021 Sep $4.79 $4.99 $4.79 $4.79 $4.79 $4.73 $4.73 $5.07 $4.85 $4.83Expected2O2d-20210ct $4.80$5.04$4.80$480$4.80$474$4.74$504 $484$4,85Expected2021-2022 Nec $4.92 $5.16 $4.92 $4.92 S 4.92 $4.97 $4.85 5 5.16 $5.00 $4.96Expected2021-2022 Dec $5.02 $5.24 $5.02 $5.02 $5.02 $5.24 $489 $5.24 $5.12 $5.05Expected2021-2022 Jan $4.99 $5.21 $4.99 $4.99 $4.99 $5.21 $4.92 $5.21 $5.11 $5.03Expected2021-2022 Feb $5.06 $5.07 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.03 $4.95 $5.03 $5.00 $5.06Expected2021-2022 Mxr $4.85 $4.95 $4.85 $4.85 $4.85 $4.80 $4.79 $4.95 $4.85 $4.87Expected2021-2022 Apr $4.73 $4.88 $4.73 $4.73 $4.73 $4.67 $4.67 $4.95 $4.76 $4,76Expected2021-2022 May $4.77 $4.89 S 4.77 $4.77 $4.77 $4.71 $4.71 $4.95 $4.79 $4.80Expected2021-2022 Jun $480 $4.92 $4.80 $480 $4.80 $474 $4.74 $4.95 $4,81 $4,82Expected2021-2022 Jxt $4.83 $4.95 $4.83 $4.83 S 4.83 $4.77 $4.17 $4.95 $4.83 $4.86Expected2021-2022 Aug $4.85 $4.95 $4.85 $4,85 $4.85 $4.79 $479 $4.95 $4.85 $4.87Expected2021-2022 Sep $4.81 $4.95 $4.80 $4.80 $4.80 $4.75 $4.75 $4.95 $4.82 $4.83Expected2021-2022 Oct $4.80 $4.98 $4.93 $4.93 $4,93 $4.74 $4.74 $4.98 $4.82 $4.92Expected2022-2023 Nec $4.96 $5.14 $4.96 $4.98 $4.98 S 5.00 $4.89 $5.14 $5.01 $4.99Expected2022-2023 Dec $5.06 $5.22 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.22 $4.92 $5.22 $5.12 $5.09Expected2022-2023 Jxn 5 5.01 $5.21 $5.01 $5.01 $5.01 $5.21 $4.94 $5.21 $5.12 $5.05Expected2022-2023 Feb $5.05 $5,13 $5.05 $5.05 $5.05 $5.13 $4.97 $5.13 $5.08 $5.07Expected2022-2023 Mar $5.03 $5.05 $5.03 $5.03 $5,03 $4.97 $4.96 $5.05 $4.99 $5.03Expected2022-2023 Apr $491 $498 $4,91 $4.91 $491 $4.84 $484 $505 $4.91 $4.92Expected2022-2023 May $4.96 $5.00 $4.96 $4.96 $4,96 $4.89 $4.89 $5.05 $4,95 5 4,97Expected2022-2023 Jun $5.01 $5.02 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $4.94 $4.94 $5.05 $4.98 $4 99Expected2022-2023 Jut $5.04 $5.08 $5.04 $5.04 $5.04 $4.97 $4.97 $5.08 $5.01 $5.05Expected2022-2023 Aug $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.00 $5.00 $5.06 $5.02 $5.06Expected2022-2023 Sep $4.90 $4.99 $4.87 $4.87 $4,87 $4.83 $4.83 $5.06 $4.91 $4.90Expected2022-2023 Oct $4.90 $5.02 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $483 $4.83 $5.03 $4.90 $4.97Expected2023-2024 Nxx $5.01 $5.16 $5.01 S 5.01 $5.01 $5.08 $4.94 $5.16 $5.05 $5.04Expected2023-2024 Dec $5.10 $5.22 $5.10 $5.10 $5.10 $5.22 $4.97 $5.22 $5.14 $5.13Expected2023-2024 Jan $5.06 $5.21 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.21 $5.00 $5.21 S 5.14 $5.09Expected2023-2024 Feb $5.14 $5.15 $5,14 S 5.14 $5.14 $5.08 $5.03 $5.08 $5.06 $5.14Expected2023-2024 Mar S 4.88 $4.89 $4.88 $4.88 $4.88 $4.83 $4.82 5 4.89 5 4.85 $4.89Expected2023-2024 Apr $4,76 $4.83 $4.76 $4.76 $4.75 $4.70 $4,70 $4.89 $4.76 $4.78Expected2023-2024 Mxy $4.78 $4.82 $4.78 $4.78 $4.78 $4.72 $4.72 $4.89 $4.78 $4.79Expected2023-2024 Jun $4.85 $4.82 $4.82 $4.82 $4.82 $4.79 $4.79 $4.89 $4.83 $4.83Expected2023-2024 Jut $4.88 $4.89 $4.88 $4.88 $4.88 $4.82 $4.82 $4.89 $4.85 $4.89Expected2023-2024 Aug S 4.91 $4.91 S 491 $491 $4.91 $4.84 $484 $4.91 $4.87 $4.91Expected2023-2024 Sep $4.85 5 4.89 5 4.83 $4.83 $4.83 $4,79 $4,79 $4.90 $4.83 $4.85Expected2023-2024 Oct $4.86 $4.94 $4.94 $494 $4.94 $4.80 $480 $4.94 $4,85 $4.93Expected2024-2025 Nec $4.98 $5.08 S 4.98 S 4.98 $4,98 $5.01 5 4.91 $5,08 5 5.00 $5.00Expected2024-2025 Dec $5.09 $5.16 $5.09 $5.09 $5.09 S 5.16 $4.94 S 5.16 $5.09 $5.10Expected2024-2025 Jxn $5.03 $5.15 $5.03 $5.03 $5,03 $5.15 $4.96 $5.15 $5.09 $5,05Expected2024-2025 Feb $5.08 $5.09 S 5.08 S 5.08 $5.08 $5.03 $5.00 $5.03 $5.02 $5.08Expected2024-2025 Mxr $4.99 $4.98 $4.99 $4.99 $4.99 $4.92 $4.92 $4.92 $4.92 $4.99Expected2024-2025 Apr $4.85 $4.88 $4.85 $485 $4.85 $4.79 $4.79 $4.90 $4.83 4.86
22 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II EXPECTED MONTHLY DETAIL
Appendix 6.4-Monthly Avoided Cost Detail 1!
2010$
Scenario Gas Year Month (tam Falls La Grands Msdftrd GiN Medlord NWP Roseburg WAIID Both WMO GTN WARD NWP WARD Annual OR Annual
uxpectea 2U44-ZUZS M5 9 4.01 9 4.00 9 4.01 S 4.87 s 4.01 9 4.01 $4.01 9 4.90 S 4.04 9 4.00
Expected 2024-2025 Jun $4.93 $489 $4 89 $4.89 $4.89 $4.86 $4.86 $4.90 $4.88 $4.90
Expected 2024-2025 Jul $4.94 $4.90 $4.90 5 4.90 5 4.90 $4.90 $4.92 $4.90 $4.91 $4.91
Expected 2024-2025 Aug $4.94 $4.90 $4.90 $4.90 $4.90 $4.90 $4.94 $4.90 $4.92 $4.91
Expected 2024-2025 Sep 5 4.91 $4.90 $4.90 $4.90 5 4.90 $4.84 $4.84 $4.90 $4.86 $4.90
Expected 2024-2025 Oct $4.92 $4 93 $4.93 $4 93 $4.93 $4.85 $4 85 $4.93 $4 66 $4.93
Expected 2025-2026 Nov $5.10 $5.27 5 5.10 $5.10 $5.10 $5.04 $5.04 S 5.27 $5.11 S 5.13
Expected 2025-2026 Dec 5 5.22 $5.39 $5.22 $5.22 $5.22 $535 $5.14 $5.39 $5.29 $5.25
Expected 2025-2026 Jan $5.15 $5.39 $5.15 $5.15 $5.15 $5.22 $5.09 $5.39 $5.23 $5.20
Expected 2025-2026 Feb $5.23 $5.23 $5.23 $5.23 $523 $5.18 $516 $520 $517 $5.23
Expected 2025-2026 Met $5.02 $5.16 5 5.02 $5.02 $5.02 $4.95 $4.95 $5.16 $5.02 $5.05
Expected 2025-2026 Apr $4.88 $5.06 $4.88 $4.88 $4.88 $4.82 $4.82 $5.16 $4.94 $4.92
Expected 2025-2026 May $4.92 $5.07 $4.92 $4.92 $4.92 $4.85 $4.85 $5.16 $4.96 $4.95
Expected 2025-2026 Jun $4.96 $5.10 $4.98 $4.98 $4.98 $4.91 $4.91 $5.17 $5.00 $5.00
Expected 2025-2026 Jut $5.01 $5.17 $5.01 $5.01 $5.01 $4.94 $4.94 $5.17 $5.02 $5.04
Expected 2025-2026 Aug $5.03 $5.17 $5.03 $503 $503 $4.96 $4.96 $5.17 $5.03 $5.06
Expected 2025-2026 Sep $4.99 $5.17 $4.99 S 4.99 $4.99 $4.92 $4.92 $5,11 $5.01 $5.02
Expected 2025-2026 Ccl $4.99 $5.20 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $4.92 $4.92 $5.20 S 5.02 $5.12
Expected 2026-2021 Nov $5.12 $5.31 $5.12 $5.12 $5.12 $5.06 $5.06 5 5.31 $5.14 $5.16
Expected 2026-2027 Dec $523 $5.40 $5.23 $5.23 $5.23 $5.40 $5.15 $5,40 $5.32 $5.26
Expected 2026-2027 Jan $5.20 $5.36 $5.20 $5.20 $5.20 $5.25 $5.14 $5.36 $5.26 $5.24
Expected 2026-2027 Feb $5.25 $5.24 $5.25 $5.25 $5.25 $5.11 $5.17 $5.19 $5.17 $5.25
Expected 2026-2027 Mar $4.97 $5.08 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $4.90 $4.90 $5.08 $4.96 $4.99
Expected 2026-2027 Apr $4.82 $4.96 $4.82 $4.82 $4.82 $4.76 $4.76 $5.08 $4.87 $4.85
Expected 2026-2027 May $4.85 $4.99 $4.85 $4.65 $4.85 $4.79 $4.79 $5.06 $4.89 $4.88
Expected 2026-2027 Jun $4.91 $5.01 $4.91 $4.91 $4.91 $4.84 $4.84 $5.08 $4.92 $4.93
Expected 2026-2021 Jut $4.94 $5.09 $4.94 $4.94 $4.94 $4.87 $4.87 $5.09 $4.94 $4.97
Expected 2026-2027 Aug $4.96 $5.09 $496 $4.96 $4.96 $4.89 $469 $5.09 $496 $4.96
Expectea 2026-2027 Sep $4.94 $5.09 $4.94 $4.94 $4.94 $4.87 $4.87 $5.09 $4.95 $4.97
Expected2o26-20270ct $4.945 5125 5.08 $5.06$5.08$4.87$4.87$5.12 $4955 5.06
Expected 2027-2028 Nov $5.09 $5.24 $5.09 $5.09 $5.09 $5.03 $5.03 5 5.24 $5.10 $5.12
Expected 2027-2028 Dec $5.22 $5.33 $5.22 $5.22 $5.22 $5.33 $5.14 $5.33 $5.27 $5,24
Expected 2027-2025 Jan $5.16 $5.32 $5.16 $5.16 $5.16 $5.28 $5.09 $5.32 $5.23 $5.19
Expected 2027-2028 Feb $5.22 $5.21 $5.22 $5.22 $5.22 $5.15 $5.15 $5.16 $5.15 $5.22
Expected 2027-2028 Mar $5.01 $5.06 $5.01 $5.01 $5.01 $4.94 $4.94 $5.06 $4.98 $5.02
Expected 2027-2028 Apr $4.86 $4.97 $4.86 $4.66 $4.86 $4.80 $4.80 $5.08 $4.89 $4.89
Expected 2027-2028 May $4.92 $4.99 $4.92 $4.92 $4.92 $4.65 $4.85 $5.08 $4.93 $4.93
Expected 2027-2028 Jun $4.95 $5.02 $4.95 $4.95 $4.95 $4.88 $4.88 $5.08 $4.95 $4.96
Expected 2027-2028 Jul $4.99 $5.10 $4.99 $4.99 $4.99 $4.92 $4.92 $5.10 $4.98 $5.01
Expected 2027-2028 Aug $5.01 $5.06 $501 $5,01 $501 $494 $4.94 $5.08 $4.99 $5.02
Expected 2027-2028 Sep $4.97 $5.09 $4.97 $4.97 $4.97 $4.90 S 4.90 $5.09 $4.96 $4.99
Expected 2027-2026 Oct $4.98 $5.11 $5.11 $5.11 $5.11 $4.91 $4.91 $5.11 $4.98 $5.08
Expected 2028-2029 Nov $5.14 $5.23 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $5.08 $5.06 $5.24 $6.13 $5.16
Expected 2028-2029 Dec $527 $5.34 $5.27 $5.27 $5.27 $5.34 $5.11 $5.34 $5.26 $5.28
Expected 2029-2029 Jan $5.20 $5.32 $5.20 $5.20 $5.20 $5.32 $5.14 $5.32 $5.26 $6.23
Expected 2028-2029 Feb $5.26 $5.26 $5.26 $5.26 $5.26 $5.20 $5,18 $5.20 $5.19 $5.26
Expected 2028-2029 Mar $5.08 $5.07 $5.08 $5.08 $5.08 $5.02 $5.02 $5.07 $5.03 $5.08
Expected 2028-2029 Apr $491 $4.98 $4.91 $4.91 $4.91 $4.84 $4.84 $5.10 $4.93 $4.92
Expected 2028-2029 Mey $4.94 $4.98 $4.94 $4.94 $4.94 $4.87 $4.87 $5.10 $4.95 $4.95
Expected 2028-2029 Jun $4.98 $5.01 $4.98 $4.98 $498 $4.91 $4.91 $5.10 $498 $4.98
Expected 2026-2029 Jut $5.02 $5.11 $5.02 $5.02 $5.02 $4.95 $4.95 $5.11 $5.01 $5.04
Expected 2028-2029 Aug $5.04 $5.14 $5.04 $5.04 $5.04 $4.97 $4.97 $5.14 $5.03 $5.06
Expected 2028-2029 Sep $5.03 $5.11 $5.03 $5.03 $5.03 $4.96 $4.96 $5.11 $5.01 $5.04
Expected 2028-2029 Oct $503 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $4.96 $4.96 $5.14 $5.02 $5.11
Expected 2029-2030 Nov $5.19 $5.23 $5.19 $5.19 $5.18 $5.12 $5.12 $5.25 $5.16 $5.19
Expected 2029-2030 Dec $5.29 $5.33 $5.29 $5.29 $5.29 $5.33 $5.16 $5.33 $5.27 $5.30
Expected 2029-2030 Jan $5.25 $5.31 $5.25 $5.25 $5.25 $5.31 $5.19 $5.31 $5.27 $5.26
Expected 2029-2030 Feb $5.32 $5.34 $5.33 $5.33 $5.33 $5.20 $5.22 $5.27 $5.25 $5.33
Expected 2029-2030 Mar $5.03 $5.00 $5.03 $5.03 $5.03 $4.96 $4.96 $5.00 $4.98 $5.02
Expected 2029-2030 Apr $4.87 $4.95 $4.87 $4.87 $4.87 $4.81 $4.81 $5.06 $4.90 $4.89
Expected 2029-2030 May $4.91 $4.95 $4.61 $4.61 $4.51 $4.84 $4.64 $5.06 $4.92 $4.92
Expected 2029-2030 Jun $4.96 $4.97 $4.96 $4.96 $4.96 $4.89 $4.89 $5.06 $4.95 $4.96
Expected 2029-2630 Jut $5.02 $5.05 S 5.02 $5.02 $5.02 $4.95 $4.95 $5.06 $4.99 $5.02
Expected 2029-2030 Aug $5.03 $5.07 $5.03 $5.03 $5.03 $4.96 $4.96 $5.07 $5.00 $5.04
Expected 2029-2030 Sep $5.03 $5.09 $5.03 $5.03 $5.03 $4.96 $4.96 $5.09 5 5.01 $5.04
Expected 2029-2030 Oct $5.04 $5.12 $5.12 $5.12 $5.12 $4.97 $4.97 $5.12 $5.02 $5.10
Expected 2530-2031 Nov $5.18 $5.20 $5.18 $5.18 $5.18 $5.12 $5.12 $5.23 $5.15 $5.19
Expected 2030-2031 Dec $5.32 $5.32 $5.32 $5.32 $5.32 $5.32 $5.19 $5.32 $5.28 $5.32
Expected 2030-2031 Jan $5.28 $5.31 $5.28 $5.28 $5.28 $5.31 $5.22 $5.31 $5.28 $5.29
Expected 2030-2031 Feb $5.36 $5.38 $5.38 $5.38 $5.38 $5.32 $5.28 $5.32 $5.31 $5.37
Expected 2030-2031 Met $5.13 $5,10 $5.13 $5.13 $5.13 $5.07 $5.07 $5.10 $5.08 $5.12
Expected 2030-2031 Apr $4.96 $5.05 $4.96 $4.96 $498 $491 $4.91 $5.14 $4.99 $4.99
Expected 2030-2031 May $5.01 $506 $5.01 $5.01 $5.01 $4.94 $4.94 $5.14 $5.01 $5.02
Expected 2030-2031 Jun $5.08 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.06 $5.02 $5.02 $5.14 $5.06 $5.06
Expected 2030-2031 Jul $5.12 $5.13 $5.12 $5.12 $5.12 $5.06 $5.06 $5.14 $5.08 $5.12
Expected 2030-2031 Aug $5.14 $5.15 $5.14 $5.14 $5.14 $5.06 $5.08 $5.15 $5.10 $5.14
Expected 2030-2031 Sep $5.13 $5.15 $5.13 $5.13 $5.13 $5.07 $5.07 $5.15 $5.09 $5.13
Expected 2030-2031 Oct $5.14 $5.18 $5.18 $5.18 $5.18 $5.06 $5.08 $5.18 $5.11 $5.17
1/Aunided coxtx xhxwn beEre Endrcnmental Extemetitiex adder.
2012 AvISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 23
APPENDIX 6.4 II HIGH GROWTH —Low PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL
Appendix 6.4 -Monthly Avoided Cost Detail 1!
2010$
Scenario Oasyeur Month KtamFatts laGrande MedfcrdGTN MedfontNwP Roaaburg WAIIDS0th WAI1DGTN WNIDP4WP WNIDAnniual ORAnnualt-hghGrowth&LowPriow 2011-2012 Nov $297 $299 S 2.97 $2.97 S 2.97 $2.93 $2.93 $299 5 2.95 S 2.99t-ighGrowth&LowPrce 2011-20’2Dec $2.63 $399 $283 5 283 $283 $278 0 278 $3.00 $2.84 S 2.87-895 Goowth&LowPricc 2011-2012 Jun 5 2.35 S 2.50 S 2.35 $2.35 S 2.35 5 2.32 5 232 S 2.50 5 2.38 0 2.36I-6ghGrnwth&LowPrce 2011-2512 Feb $289 $292 $289 8 289 $289 $2.88 $288 $2.88 $286 $290HighGrowthsLowProc2011-2012 Mar 5 2.95 $2.95 $2.95 $2.55 S 2.95 $2.91 S 2.91 S 291 $2.91 $2.95highGrowth&Low Proc 2011-2012 Apr $244 $2.85 $2.44 $2.44 $244 $241 $2.41 $287 $2.56 $248HighGrowth&Low Proc 2011-2012 Map $2.55 $2.80 $2.55 $2.55 $255 0 252 $252 $2.81 $2.84 0 2.60HighGrowth&Low Proc 2011-2012 Jan $270 $287 $270 $2.70 $2.70 $266 $2%5 287 $2.73 $273HighGrowth&LowPrcc 2011-2012 Jut $2./6 $287 $275 $276 $2.75 $2.72 $272 $2.68 $231 $2.76h6ghGrowthaLowPrcn2011-2012Aug $264 0 288 5 284 $254 $284 S 260 $260 8 288 $269 $268HighGrowtn&Low Prcn 2011-2012 Snp $2.53 $2.78 $2.53 $2.53 $2.53 $2.50 5 2.50 $288 0 2.53 $2.58t-bghGrowth&Low Price 201-20’2 Got $266 $2.90 $286 $2.68 $2.66 S 2.62 $262 $2.80 $2.71 $270t-cgrGrowth&LowPrce 2012-2013 Nov $312 $332 $312 $312 $3.12 $3.07 $307 $3.32 $315 $3.15HighGrowth&LowPrioe 2012-2013 Dec $3.26 $344 $328 $3.26 $3.26 $217 $3.17 $3.58 $330 $3.30HighGrowth&Low Proc 2512-2013 Jar $345 $3.69 $3.45 $3.45 $3.45 $3.41 $3.41 $370 $301 $3.50HighGrowth&Low Prcn 2012-2013 Pab $3.61 $382 $361 $361 $3.61 $3.56 $3.55 $3.62 $3.64 $3.65HighGrowth&Low Proc 2012-2013 Mar 5 367 0 382 $3.61 $3.6?5 3.67 $3.62 $3.62 0 3.92 $3.69 $310HighGrowth8LowPrce2012-2013 Apr $3.61 $3.79 $361 $361 $3.61 $356 $356 $382 $365 $364HignGrowto&LowPrcc 2512-2513 Map $350 $362 $359 $3.59 $359 $3.54 $3.54 $3.82 $3.63 $363HighGrowth&LowPrcw 2012-2013 Jan $360 $382 $360 $360 $3.60 S 35$$355 $3.62 $304 $354HighGrowto&Low Proc 2012-2013 Jul $3.63 $3.82 $3.63 $3.53 $363 $3.58 $3.58 5 382 0 3.66 $3.57l’ghGcowth&LowPrice 2012-2013 Aug $3.63 $263 $3.63 $363 $363 $356 $3.58 $383 $366 $267HipsGrowth&Low Proc 2012-2013 Sep $3.63 $3.63 $3.53 0 3.63 $3.63 0 3.58 $3.08 $363 $3.66 $3.6/t-696 Growth &Low Pncs 2012-2013 Dot $366 $3.69 $3.66 $3.66 $3.66 $3.61 $3.61 $3.89 $3.70 $3.70HighGrowth&Low Proc 2013-2014 Nov $3.85 $4.06 0 3.85 $3.85 $3.85 $3.80 $3.80 $4.06 $380 $3.59HighGrowth&Low Price 2013-2014 Dcc $3.97 0 4.17 $3.97 $3.67 $3.87 $3.88 $3 68 $4.17 $3.98 $4.01HighGrowth&Law Proc 2013-2014 Jun $364 $417 $394 $3.64 $3.94 0 3.80 $3.89 $4.17 $3.09 $3.99l-eghGrowth&LowPricc 2013-2014 Feb $3.66 $4.07 $3.95 $39$$3.95 $390 $3.60 $406 $395 S 3.97HighG.owtn &Low Proc 2013-2014 Mar $265 $404 5 3.95 $3.93 $360 $3.wt $3.90 $4.04 $3 65 $3.61HighGrowth&Low Proc 2013-2014 Apr $3.79 $398 $3.79 $3.79 $3.79 $3.74 $3.74 $4.05 $3.84 $383HighGrowth&Low Proc 2013-2014 Mug $3.74 $400 $314 $3./4 $3.74 $3.69 $369 $405 $381 $378HighGrowth&Low Pvcr 2013-2014 Jun $3.77 $4.02 $3.77 $377 $3.77 $3.72 $3.72 $405 $3.63 $3.82HighGrowth&Low Proc 2013-2014 Jul $380 $405 $3.80 $3.60 $3.80 $3.75 $3.75 $4.00 $3.65 $3.85HighGrowth&Low Proc 2013-2014 Aug $380 $405 $3.60 $3.80 $3.80 $3.75 $3.75 $4.05 $3.65 $3.65HighGrowth&LowProc 2013-2014 Sep $361 $4.06 $361 $3.81 $3.81 $3.76 0 3.76 $406 $3.66 $386HighGrowth&LowPrioc 3013-2014 Got $383 $412 $3.83 $383 $3.83 $3.76 $3.78 $4,12 $3.80 $3.89HighGrowth6LowProc2014-2015 Nov $4.03 $4.26 $403 $4.03 $4.03 $3.97 $3.9/$428 $407 $4.06HighGrowth&LowPrcc 2014-2015 Dec 0 409 $4.31 $498 $4.09 $4.09 $3.97 $3.97 $4.31 $406 $4.13HighGrowth&Low Proc 2014-2015 Jar $4.07 $4.31 0 4.07 $4.01 $4.01 $4.01 $4.01 $4.31 $4.11 $4.12HighGrowthSLowPnoe2014-2015 Feb $4.09 $423 $4.09 $409 $4.09 $404 $4.04 $422 $4.10 $412HighGrowthSLowProw2014-2015 Mar $4.04 $421 5 409 $409 5 4.09 5 4.03 $4.03 $4.21 $409 $411HighGrowth&LowPrcc 2014-2015 Apr $394 $4.15 $354 5 3.94 $394 $369 $3.89 $4.21 $400 $3b9HighGrowth&Low Proc 2014-2015 Mug $393 $4.17 $3.63 $3.93 $3.93 $3.88 $3.88 $4.21 9 3.99 $3.98HighGrowth&Low Proc 2014-2015 Jun $3.99 $4.19 $3.99 $3.99 $3.99 $3.93 $3.93 $4.21 $403 $4.03HighGrowth0LowProc2014-2015 Jul $4.02 $4.21 $4.02 $4.02 5 4.02 $3.96 $3.06 $4.21 $4.05 $4.06HighGrowrh&LowPrcc 2014-2015 Aug $401 $422 $4.01 $4.01 $401 $3.95 $305 $422 $404 $405HighGrowth&LowProc 2014-2015 Sap $398 $422 $3b8 5 309 $398 $292 $392 $422 $402 $4.02FhghG’rwtr&LowPhoc 2014-2010 Dcl $399 $430 $399 $299 5 399 $3.93 $293 $4.30 $4.0$$4.05HighGrowth&Low Proc 2015-2016 Nov $4.16 $4.44 $4.16 $4.16 5 4.16 $4.11 $4.11 $4.44 $4.22 $4.21HighGrowthSLowPrrcw2015-2016 Dcc $4.23 $4.46 $423 $4.23 $4.23 $4.11 $4.11 $4.48 $4.23 0 4.28HighGrowth&LowProc 2015-2016 Jar 5 4.16 $4.49 $4.19 $4.19 $4.16 $4.14 $4 14 $4.49 $4.20 $425HighGrowth&Low Prow 2015-2016 Feb $4.22 $4.46 $4,22 $422 $4.22 $4.16 $4.16 $4.46 $4.28 p 4.26HighGrowth&Low Proc 2015-2016 Mar $4,25 $445 $4.26 $4.26 $4.26 $4.21 $4.21 $4.45 $4.20 $4.30HighGrowth&Low Price 2015-2016 Apr $4.11 $438 $4.11 $4.11 $4.11 $4.06 $4.06 $445 $4.19 $4.16HighGrowth&Low Prow 2015-2015 Mug $4.12 $4.39 $4.12 $4.12 $412 $4.07 $407 $4.45 5 419 $4.17HighGrowth&LowPrcc 3015-2OI6Jur $416 $4.41 $416 $416 $4.16 5 411 $411 $446 $4,33 5 421t-cgr Growth &Low Proc 2015-2016 Jul $4.18 $446 $418 $4.16 5 4.15 $4.13 $4.13 $4.45 $4.24 $4.24HighGrowth&LowPrcw 2015-2016 Aug $418 $446 $4.18 $418 $418 $413 $413 $446 $424 $4.24HigrGrowth&Low Prow 2015-2015 Sep $4.17 $4.46 $4.1/$4.1/$411 $4.12 $4.12 $446 $4.23 $4.23I’hgr’Growths LowPrioc 3015-3016 Dot $419 $4.51 $410 $418 $4.18 5 4.13 $413 $4.51 $4.25 $425HighGrowth$Low Proc 2016-2017 Nov $466 $518 $4.66 $486 $486 5 4.60 $4.80 $5.10 $4.93 $4.93HighGrrwth&Low Proc 3016-2017 Dcc $4,94 $5.19 $494 5 4.94 $494 $4.60 $490 $5.19 $4.93 $4.69HighGrowth&Low Proc 2016-2017 Jar $400 $0.22 $490 $4.90 $4.90 $4.82 $4.82 $5.33 9 495 $4.56HighGrowth&LuwPrcc 2016-2017 Peh $493 $5.14 $4.93 $4.93 $4.93 $4.87 $4.86 $5.14 $4.96 $4.97HighGrowth$LowProe 2016-2017 Mar $4.93 $0.13 $493 $4,93 9 4,93 $4.86 $486 $5.13 $490 $4,97HighGrowt&LowPrcw 2016-2017 Apr $4.75 $5.07 $475 $4.75 $4.75 $4.69 $469 S 0.13 $484 $4.81HighGrowtr&Low Proc 2016-2017 Mab $4.80 5 0.10 $4.60 $4.60 $4.60 $4.14 $474 5 5,13 $4.6/$4.86HighGrrwrh&LowProc 2016-2017 Jar $463 $512 $4.63 S 4.83 S 483 8 4.77 S 4.77 $5.13 $489 $4,89HighGrowth&LO P00w 2016-201/Jot $4.86 5 5.13 $486 $4,95 $4.88 $4.80 $490 0 5.13 $4.91 5 4.92HighGrvwth&LowProe 2016-2017 Aug $4.68 $0.14 $466 $4.96 $4.96 $4.80 $4.90
24 II CHAPTER 6 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 6.4 II HIGH GROWTH —LOW PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL
Scenario GasYear Month ktani Falls La Grande Medfard 0Th
Appendix 6.4-Monthly Avoided Cost Detail 1!
2010$
Medlord NWP Ro.eburg WMDBa65 WAIIDGTN WAJIDNWP WNlDAnnual ORAnauel
High Growth &Low Price 2018-2019 Sep S 519 $5.57 $5.19 $5.19 $5.19 $5.13 5 5.13 5 5.57 S 5.26 5 0.27
HrghGrvwth&LowPvce 2018-2019 Oct $520 5 5.80 $525 $9.25 $525 $5.14 $514 S 580 $529 $531
High Growth &Low Pvce 2019-2020 Nov $5.29 $5.61 $5.29 $5.29 $5.29 $5.23 $5.23 $5.61 $5.36 $9.36
High Growth &LvwPrice 2919-2020 Dec $548 $568 $548 $5.48 $&48 $530 $530 $5.68 $543 $5.52
High Growth &Low Price 2019-2020 Jan $543 $5.66 $5.43 $5.43 $5.43 $5.34 $5.34 $5.66 $5.45 $5.48
HighGrowrh&LvwPrice 2019-2020 Feb $547 $$57 S 547 $547 $5.47 5 5.40 $5.40 $555 5 545 $$49
l4rgtr Growth&LowPece 3016-2020 Mar $$38 $550 $5.38 $535 $5.36 $9.31 $9.31 $550 $5.37 $540
l-hglrGrowth&LowPrice 2519-2020 Apr $5.23 $$46 $$23 $$23 $$23 $$17 $5.17 $550 $528 $5.28
1-igh Growth &Low Price 2019-2020 May $9.26 $5.44 $5.26 $526 $5.26 $6.20 $5.20 $550 $5.30 $5.30
t-IghGrvwth&LvwPrtce 2019-2020 .hr $530 $5.46 $5.29 $5.30 $5.30 $524 $5.24 $5.51 $5.33 $534
High GrowthS LawPvce 2019-20213 Jat $$34 $5.51 $534 $5.34 $5.34 S $25 $5.28 $551 $5.35 $5.36
High GrowthS LvwPrice 2019-2020 Aag $5.36 $5.51 $5.36 $$36 S 5.36 $529 $$29 S $51 $5.36 $$39
High Growth &Low Price 2019-2025 Sep $$29 $5.51 $5.28 $5.26 $$28 $5.22 $5.22 $5.51 $5.32 $5.33
High GrowthS Low Price 2019-2020 Oct $$29 $5.58 $538 $530 $5.38 $5.23 $$23 $556 $5.34 $540
High Growls &Low Price 2020-2021 Nov $5.44 $5.68 $5.44 $544 $5.44 $5.35 $5.35 $5.70 $5.47 $5.49
HighGrvwth&LowPrice 2020-2021 Dec $$58 $577 $5.58 $5.58 5 559 $545 $545 $5.77 $556 5 5.62
legs GrowthS LowPnce 2020-2021 Jay $554 $575 $554 $554 $5.54 $5.44 $5.44 $515 $5.54 $558
High GrowthS LowPiice 2020-2021 Feb $5.58 $5.70 $5.58 $5.58 $5.58 $5.51 $5.51 $5.69 $$67 $$60
High Growth&LowPrice 2020-2021 Mar $5.52 $5.64 $5.92 $5.52 $5.52 $5.45 $5.4$$5.64 $5.51 $5.54
High GrowthS LowPrice 2020-2021 Apr $5.36 $555 $5.36 $5.36 $536 $529 $5.20 $564 $5.40 $$39
HighGrowtris LowPvce 2020-2021 May $540 $5.54 $5.40 $540 5 540 $5.33 $5.33 $5.64 $5.43 $543
HighGrowth&LvwPvce 2020-2021 Jan $544 $557 $544 $5.44 $544 $5.37 $5.37 $564 $546 S 546
High Growth &Low Price 2020-2021 J01 $9.48 $5.64 $5.49 $5.48 $5.48 $5.41 $5.41 $5.64 $5.46 $5.51
High GrowthS LowPrice 2020-2021 Aag $5.50 $5.65 $5.50 $5.50 $550 $5.43 $543 $5.65 $550 $5.53
High Growth &Low Price 2020-2021 Sep $5.30 $5.50 $5.30 $5.30 $5.30 $5.24 $5.24 $5.65 $5.37 $5.34
HighGrowth&LowPrice 2020-2021 Oct $5.31 $5.54 $$41 $5.41 $5.41 $$25 $5.2$$5.54 $535 $$42
HighGrowth&LowPnca 2021-2022 Nov 5 5.45 $5.bb $545 $5,45 5 5.45 $$36 $5.36 $568 $$47 $549
HrghGrowt$&LowPrice 2021-2022 Dec $5.56 $574 $5.66 $5.56 $556 $5.46 $5,46 $5.74 $5.55 $560
High Growtri &Low Pnce 2021-2022 tori $5.51 $5.71 $5.51 $5.51 $5.51 $5.43 $5.43 $5.71 $5.52 $5.55
High Growth &Low Price 2021-2022 Feb $5.58 $5.56 $5 58 $5.58 $5.58 $5.49 S 5.49 $5.55 $5,51 $5.58
High Growth &Low Price 2021-2022 Mar $5.37 $5.47 $5.37 $$37 5 5.37 $50-$5.30 $5.47 $5.36 S 5.35
High Growth &Low Price 2021-2022 Apr $5.24 $5.39 $$24 $5.24 $5.24 $5.18 $5 18 $5.47 $5.26 S 5.27
High Growls &Low Price 2021-2022 May $5.28 $5.40 $$.2h $5.28 $5.28 $5.22 $5.22 $5.48 $530 $5.31
High Growth &Low Price 2021-2022 Jan $5.31 $5.43 $5.31 $5.31 $5.31 $5.2$$525 $5.48 $5.32 $5.34
High Growth &Low Price 2021-2022 Jal $5.34 $5.48 $534 $5.34 $5.34 $5.28 $5.26 $5.48 $5.35 $5.37
High Growth &Low Price 2021-2022 Aag $5.37 $548 $5.37 $5.37 $5.37 $5.30 $5.30 $5.48 $5.36 $5.39
High Growth &Low Pvce 2021-2022 Say $532 $5.4b $532 $5.32 $5.32 $5.26 $5.26 $5,49 $5.33 $5.35
l-Ighorowth&LowPrrce 202t-2022 Oct $5.31 $$49 $5.44 $5.44 $5.44 $5.2$$52$$549 $5.33 $$43
High Growth &Low Price 2022-2023 Nov $5.50 $5.64 $5.50 $5.50 $5.50 $5.40 $5.40 $5.69 $5.45 $5 53
High Growth &Law Price 2022-2023 Dec $5,64 $5.73 $5.64 $5.64 5 5.64 $5.49 $5.49 $5.73 $5.57 $5.65
Hit Growth &Low Price 2022-2023 Jan $5.58 $5.71 $5.59 $5.59 $5.59 $545 $5.45 $5.71 $5.54 $5 h2
High Growth &Low Price 2022-2023 Feb $5.62 $567 $5.62 $5.62 $5.62 $5.52 $5.52 $5.66 $5.57 $5 b3
High Growth &Low Pvce 2022-2023 Mar $5.54 $5.57 $5.54 $5.h4 $5.54 $5.47 $547 $5,57 $5.51 $5.55
High GrowthS Low Price 2022-2023 Apr $5.42 $5.49 $5.42 $5.42 $5.42 $5.35 $5.35 $5.58 $542 $5.43
High Growth &Low Phce 2022-2023 May $5.47 $551 $5.47 $5.47 $5.47 $5.40 $5.40 $5.58 $5.46 $5.46
High Growth &Low Pnce 2022-2023 Jan $5.52 $5.53 $5.50 $5.50 $550 $5.45 $5.45 $55b $5.49 $5.51
High Growth &Low Price 2022-2023 Jul $5.55 $5 58 $5.55 $5.55 $5.55 $5,45 $5.48 $5.58 $551 $556
HighGrowth&LowPrice 2022-2b23Aag $557 $556 $556 $556 $5.56 $5.50 $5.50 $558 $$53 $$57
High GrowthS LowPnce 2022-2023 Sep $5.41 $5.50 $5.41 $5.41 $541 $534 $$34 $5.5$$542 $543
High Growth &Low Price 2022-2023 Oct $5.41 $5.53 $548 $5.48 $5.48 $5.34 $5.34 $5.53 $540 $5.48
High Growth&LowPrice 2023-2024 Nov $5.54 $5.64 $5.54 $554 $5.54 $5.4$$545 $5.65 $552 $556
Hrgh GrowthS LowPrice 2023-2024 Dec $5.6$5 572 $565 $$65 $5.65 5 5.53 $5.53 5 5.72 5 5.59 $587
High Growth &Low Pvce 2023-2024 Jan $5.59 $5.66 $5.59 $5.59 $559 $5.50 $5.50 $5.66 $5.55 $5.60
High GrowthS Low Price 2023-2024 Feb $5.66 $583 $5.66 $569 $5.66 $5.55 $555 $555 $5.55 $5.65
High Growth &Low Price 2023-2024 Mar $5.40 $5.41 $5 40 $5.40 $5.40 $5.33 $5 33 $h.41 $5.36 $5.40
High Growth &Low Price 2023-2024 Apr $5.27 $5.34 $5.27 $5.27 $5.27 $5.21 $5.21 $5.41 $5.28 $5.29
High Growth &Low Price 2023-2024 May $5.2b $533 $5.33 $5.33 $5.33 $5.23 $5.23 $5.41 $529 $5.32
HighGrcwth&LowPrica 2023-2024 Jan $537 $5.33 $533 $533 $5.33 $5.30 $530 $542 $5.34 $534
High Growth &Low Price 2023-2024 Jul $5.40 $5.40 $5.40 $5.40 $5.40 $5.33 $5.33 $5.42 $536 $540
High Growth 6 Low P6cc 2023-2024 Aug $5.42 $5.42 $5.42 $5.42 $5.42 $5.35 $5.35 $5.42 $537 $5.42
High GrowthS Low Pvce 2023-2524 Say $5.37 $5.40 $5.34 $5.34 $5.34 $5.30 $530 $542 $534 $5.36
High Growth&LowPrice 2023-2024 Oct $538 $545 $545 $545 $5.45 $5.31 $031 5 545 $536 $544
High Growth &Low Price 2024-2025 Nov $5.52 $5.56 $5.52 $$.h2 $5 52 $5.42 $5.42 $5.60 $948 $5 53
High Growth &Low Price 2024-2025 Dec $5.69 $5.67 $5.69 $5.69 $5.69 $5.50 $5.50 $5.67 $5.56 $5.69
High Growth &Low Price 2024-2025 Jon $5.64 $5.65 $5.64 $5.64 $5 64 $5.47 $5.47 $5.65 $5.53 $5.65
High Growth &Low Price 2024-2025 Feb $5.69 $5.65 $5.69 $5.69 $5.69 $5.53 $5 53 $5.56 $5.54 $5.66
High Growth &Low Pnce 2024-2025 Mar $5.50 $5.49 $5.50 $5.50 $550 $5.43 $5.43 $5.44 $$43 $$50
High Growth&LowPrice 2024-2025 Apr $5.37 $5.39 $5.37 $537 $5.37 $5.30 $530 $544 $5.35 $5.37
High Growth &Low Poce 2024-2025 May $5.3b $5.40 $5.40 $5.40 $5.40 $5.32 $5.32 $5.44 $5.36 $5.39
High Growth&LowPnce 2024-202534°$5.44 $540 $5.40 $5.40 $540 $537 $5.37 $545 $5.39 $541
HighGrowthS LcwPrice 2024-2025 Jot $5.49 $5.45 $5.45 $545 5 545 $543 $5.43 $5.45 $544 $546
High GrowthS LowPrice 2024-2025 Aug $550 $545 $5.45 $545 $5.45 $5.45 $545 $545 $545 $5.46
High Growth &Low Price 2024-2025 Sap $542 $541 $5.41 $5.41 $5.41 $5.35 $5.35 5 5.45 $5.38 $5.41
High Growth&LowPvce 2024-2025 Oct $543 $5.44 $5.44 $5.44 $544 $536 S 536 $5.44 $539 $544
High GrowthS LowPvce 2025-2026 Nov $514 $ShO $574 $5.74 $574
2012 AvISTA NATURAL GAS IRP II 25
APPENDIX 6.4 II HIGH GROWTH —LOW PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL
Appendix 6.4 -Monthly Avoided Cost Detail 1!
2010$
ScenarIo Gasvear Month Ktani Falls La Grand.Medlord GIN M,dtord NWP Ros.borg WARD Both WNI0 GIN WARD SWJP WARD Annual OR AnnualHighGrowth&Low Price 2026-2027 Mar $g.g2 S 5 go $552 5 552 $5.52 $5.41 $5.41 5 5.56 $5.47 $5.53HighGrowrh&LowPdce 2026-2027 Apr $533 $h47 $533 $5.33 $533 $5.21 $527 $550 $5.31 $535HighGrowth&LowPoce 2026-2027 May $5.37 $5.50 $5.45 $5.45 $h 4h $5.30 S h.30 $h.h9 $5.30 $5.44HighGrowth&LowPrice 2026-2027 Jun $h42 $h52 $542 $542 $542 $5.35 $535 $9-so $9-43 $544HighGrowth&Low Poce 2026-2027 Jul $5.45 $5.59 $545 $5.45 $5.45 $5.38 $5.38 $5.59 $5.45 $5.46Highicrowth&LowPrice 2026-2527 Aug $547 $059 $547 $047 $547 $540 $540 5 5.59 $546 5 9-49h’hgh Growths Low Price 2026-2027 Sep $545 $560 $545 $5.45 $5.45 $5.36 $538 $5.60 $5.45 $5.48l-cghorowth&LnwPrice2O2O-20270ct $5.45$562$559$554$558$5.38$5.38$5.62 $5.485 556HighGrowth&Low Pnce 2021-2028 Nov S 9.74 5 517 $5.74 $5.74 $5.74 $553 $5.53 $5.82 5 5.63 $575l-hgh GrowthS Low Price 2027-2028 Dec $588 $5.84 $5.86 $5.86 $5.88 $562 $5.62 $5.84 $569 $5.861-agh Growth &Low Pnce 2021-2028 Jan 5 5.83 $5 83 $5.83 $5.83 $5.83 5 5 59 S 5.59 $5.83 $5.67 $5.83l-bghGrowth&LowPrice 2527-2028 Feb $587 $585 $587 $587 $5.87 $557 $557 $5.73 $569 $5.87HighGrowth&Low Pnce 2027-2028 Mar $5.55 $5 56 $5 55 $5 55 $5.55 $5 45 $545 $5.58 $5.49 $556Hi9hGrowth&Low Price 2027-2026 Apr 5 5.36 $5.46 $5.38 $5.38 $5 38 $5.31 $5.31 $5.60 $540 $5.40HighGrowth&Low Pcce 2027-2028 May $543 $$50 $5.47 $5.47 $547 $5.36 $5.36 $8.50 $544 $5.47HighGrowtlrsLowPnce2027-2025 Jun $546 $5.53 $548 $546 $546 $539 $5.39 $550 $5.48 $$47HighGrowth&Low Pnce 2027-2028 Jut $5.00 $5.60 $5.50 $5.50 $5.50 $0.43 $0.43 $5.60 $5.49 $5.52HghGrowth&LowPrice 2027-2028 Aug $5.52 $563 $552 $552 $5.52 $5.45 $5.45 $5.83 $5.51 $5.54HighGrowth&LowPrice 2027-2028 Sep $548 $559 $548 $5.48 $548 $5.41 $5.41 $5.61 $5.48 $5.50HighGrowthsLowPrice2527-2028 Oct 5 5.49 $581 $561 5 561 $SSt $$42 $$42 $5.61 5 5.48 $9-59HrgtiGrowthsLowPnce2026-2029 Nov $5.82 $583 $5.82 $5.82 $$82 $558 $5.58 $5.94 $570 $8.82HrghGrowth&LowPrice 2028-2029 Dec $5.95 $5.95 $5.95 $595 $5.95 $559 $5.69 $5.96 $518 $5.95Hrghorowth&LowP6ce 2028-2029 Jun $5.94 $5.94 $5.94 $5.94 $594 $564 $5.64 $5.94 5 5.74 £5.94HiglrGiowth&LowPrice 2028-2029 Feb $5.51 $5.88 $69t $5.91 $5.91 $Sn $5.72 $5.76 $573 $5.90HighGrowthsLowPnce2028-2028 Mar $5.59 $$59 $5,59 $559 $559 $5.52 $552 $9-61 $555 $5.59HighGrowth8LowP6cc2029-2029 Apr $5.49 $5.49 $5.49 $5.49 $549 $5.42 $5.42 $5.61 $5.49 5 5.49HighGrowth&Low Phce 2028-2029 May $5.45 $5 49 $5.49 $5.49 $5.49 $5.38 $5.38 $5.61 $548 $5.48HighGrowthsLowPrice2028-2029 Jun $5.49 $5.52 $549 $549 $549 $5.42 $542 $5.62 $549 $549HighGrowth&Low Pnce 2028-2029 Jul $5.53 $5.61 $553 $5.53 $5.53 $5.46 $5.46 $5.62 $5.51 $5.55HighGrowth&LowPrice 2028-2029 Aug $5.55 $5.84 $5.55 $5.55 $555 $$48 $5.46 $5.64 $5.53 $5.57HighGrowth&LcwPrice 2028-2029 Sep $554 $5.62 $554 $554 5 5.64 $547 $547 $5.62 $5.52 $5.56HighGrowthsLowPrica2028-2029 Ocr $5.54 $584 $564 5 5.64 $5.84 $547 $547 $5.54 $5.53 $5.52HighGrowthsLowPnce2029-2030 Nov $5.96 $$86 $5.56 $$56 $5.86 $5.62 $562 $612 $579 $5.98HighorowthsLowPrice2029-2030 Dec $6.12 $6.12 $6.12 $6.12 $6.12 $$85 $094 $6.14 $5.94 $6.12HighGrowth&LowP8cc 2029-2030 Jun $6.12 $6.12 $612 $6.12 $612 $569 $5.69 $6.12 $5.84 $6.12HighGiowth5LowPrice2029-2030 Feh $593 $588 S 593 $593 $5.93 $5,77 5 516 $5.77 $5.77 $5.92HighGrowthsLowPoca2029-2030 Mar $5.58 $596 $5.56 9 556 $558 $547 $5.47 $5.61 $5.52 $556HighGrowthSLowPrice2029.2030 Apr $$52 $5.52 $5.52 $5.52 $5 52 $5.45 $5.45 $5.61 $5.51 $5.52HighGrowthSLowPnce2029-2030 Map $5.42 $5.48 $5.48 5 5.48 $5,48 $8.35 $535 $5.61 $5.44 $5.47HighGrowth&Low Price 2029-2030 Jun $5,47 $5.48 $5.48 $5.48 $548 $5.40 $5.40 $5.62 $5,47 $5,48HighGrowthSLowPoce2029-2030 Jul $5.53 $555 $8.53 $5.53 $5.53 $546 $5.46 $5.62 $5.51 $553HighGrowth&LowPrice 2029-2030 Aug $554 $5.57 $554 $554 $554 $$47 $9-47 $5.62 $5.52 $5.55HighGrowthsLowPnca2029-2530 Sep $554 $559 $5.59 S 559 $5.59 $9-47 $547 $5.82 $5.52 $5.58HighGrowthsLowPrice2029-2030 Cci $5.55 $582 $5.82 $562 $552 $5.48 $548 $562 $5.53 S 561HighGrowthSLowPoce2035-2031 Nov 5 6.02 $602 $6.02 $6.02 $602 $5.62 $5.82 $624 $5.83 $602HighGrowthSLowPrice2030-2031 Dec $6.17 $618 $618 $6.18 $6.18 $5.90 $5.89 $6.26 $6.02 $6.18HighGrowthSLowPoce2030-2031 Jun $6.18 $6.18 $618 $6.18 $8.18 $5.77 $5.77 $8.24 $5.93 $6.18HighGrowth&Low Price 2030-2031 Feb $803 $589 $6.03 $603 $603 $581 $581 $581 $5.81 $600HighGrowthSLowPvce2030-2031 Mar $5.65 $565 $565 $565 $565 $557 $5.51 $5.65 $560 $5.65HighGrowth&Low Price 2030-2031 Apr $5 82 $5.62 $5.62 $5.62 $582 $5.55 $5.55 $5.65 $5.59 $5.62HighGrowth&Low Pnce 2030-2031 Map $5.52 $5.59 $5.59 $5.59 $5.59 $545 $5.45 $5.65 $5.92 $5.87HighGrowth&Low Price 2030-2031 Jun $5 59 $5.59 $5,59 $5.59 $5 59 $5.52 $5.52 $5 66 $5.57 $5.59HighGrowth&Low Price 2030-2031 Jul $563 $5.63 $5 63 $5.63 $563 $5.56 $5.56 $5.86 $5.59 $5 83HighGrowlhSLowPrice2030-2031 Aug $5.65 $5.65 $56$$$65 $5.65 $558 $5W $566 $5.61 $5.65HighGrowthSLowPnoe2030-2031 Sep $564 $585 $566 $555 $5.65 $557 $557 $5.66 $560 $565l-6igrGrowthsLowPrice 2030-2031 Oct $565 $568 $568 $5.68 $$88 $5.58 $558 $568 $562 $$68
1/Auoided costo shown betow Erruirooroental Eutemulitien adder
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 1
APPENDIX 7.1 II HIGH GROWTH CASES
SELECTED RESOURCES VS.PEAK DAY DEMAND
EXISTING PLUS EXPECTED AVAILABLE
450,000
400,000
High Growth Case -WA/ID Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus Expected Available Supply Side Resources
FEB 15
350,000
300,000
250,000
0
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Existing GTN Existing NWP Spokane SupplyLZGTN Capacity Add Capacity Recall ——Peak Day Demand
High Growth Case -Medford/Roseburg Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus Expected Available Supply Side Resources
DEC20
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 I I I I I I
GTN Capacity Add Existing NWP Existing GTN ——Peak Day Demand
2 II CHAPTER7 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 7.1 II HIGH GROWTH CASES
SELECTED RESOURCES VS.PEAK DAY DEMAND
EXISTING PLUS EXPECTED AVAILABLE
“mftn
High Growth Case -La Grande Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus Expected Available Supply Side Resources
FEB15
12,000
10,000
8,000
-C
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 —I I I I I I I I I —I
‘‘L’‘I ‘‘“i.‘‘.‘‘It’t’‘IL’,‘It’‘It-‘It.9 ‘t’‘t’
Existing NWP ciJOperational Flex ——Peak Day Demand
High Growth Case -Kiamath Falls Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus Expected Available Supply Side Resources
DEC2022,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
.C 12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
t’‘%‘I
Klamath Lateral Exisiting GTN Backhaul GTN —4—Peak Day Demand
2O12AVISTANATIJRALGASIRP II 3
APPENDIX 7.1 II HIGH GROWTH CASES
SELECTED RESOURCES VS.PEAK DAY DEMAND
EXISTING PLUS GTN FULLY SUBSCRIBED
a.F..•.
T -r T r -r --r T -r y r
High Growth Case -WAIID Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus GTN Fully Subscribed
FEB15
500,000 -450,000 -
400,000-
350,000 -
300,000 --
250,000 -
200,000 -,
150,000 -
100,000 -
50,000
Existing GTN Existing NWP Spokane Supply Capacity Recall 5at LNG —4—Peak Day Demand
120,000
High Growth Case -Medford/Roseburg Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus GTN Fully Subscribed
DEC20
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
SatLNG Existing NWP Existing GTN —4—Peak Day De mand
4 II CHAPTER 7 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 7.1 II HIGH GROWTH CASES
SELECTED RESOURCES VS.PEAK DAY DEMAND
EXISTING PLUS GTN FULLY SUBSCRIBED
High Growth Case -La Grande Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing plus GTN Fully Subscribed
FEB15
12,000
:::
Existing NWP OperationaI Flex •Peak Day Demand
High Growth Case -Kiamath Falls Selected Resources vs.Peak Day Demand
Existing GTN Fully Subscribed
DEC20
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Kiamath Lateral ExisitingGTN Sat LNG ——Peak Day Demand
2O12AVI5TANATURALGASIRP JI 5
APPENDIX 7.2 II PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
HIGH GROWTH
Peak Day Demand -Served and Unserved (MDthId)
Before Resource Additions &Net of DSM Savings
La
Grande%WAIID%La La La of Peak of PeakGrandeGrandeGrandeDayWAIIDWAIIDWAIIDDayCaseGasYearServedUnservedTotalServedServedUnservedTotalServedHighGrowth20127.36 -7.36 100%255.74 -255.74 l00%High Growth 2013 7.49 -7.49 100%262.63 -262.63 100%High Growth 2014 7.62 -7.62 100%270.77 -270.77 100%High Growth 2015 7.78 -7.78 100%279.05 -279.05 100%High Growth 2016 7.91 -7.91 100%287.20 -287.20 100%High Growth 2017 8.04 -8.04 100%295.46 -295.46 100%High Growth 2018 8.16 -8.16 100%303.56 -303.56 100%High Growth 2019 8.28 -8.28 100%311.65 -311.65 100/DHighGrowth20208.40 -8.40 100%314.09 5.68 319.78 98%High Growth 2021 8.52 -8.52 100%314.09 13.84 327.93 96%High Growth 2022 8.64 -8.64 100%314.09 22.08 336.17 93%High Growth 2023 8.76 -8.76 100%314.09 30.57 344.66 91%High Growth 2024 8.88 -8.88 100%314.09 39.18 353.27 89%High Growth 2025 9.01 -9.01 100%314.09 48.05 362.15 87%High Growth 2026 9.10 0.05 9.15 99%314.09 57.11 371.20 85%High Growth 2027 9.10 0.19 9.29 98%314.09 66.41 380.51 83%High Growth 2028 9.10 0.35 9.45 96%314.09 76.03 390.12 81%High Growth 2029 9.10 0.52 9.62 95%314.09 86.07 400.17 78%High Growth 2030 9.10 0.70 9.80 93%314.09 96.63 410.72 76%High Growth 2031 9.10 0.90 10.00 91%314.09 107.92 422.01 74%
Medfordl
Klamath RoseburgKlamathKlamathKlamathFalls%of Medfordl Medford/Medfordl %of Peak
Falls Falls Falls Peak Day Roseburg Roseburg Roseburg DayCaseGasYearServedUnservedTotalServedServedUnservedTotalServedHighGrowth201212.97 -12.97 100%68.57 -68.57 100%High Growth 2013 13.20 -13.20 100%69.66 -69.66 100%High Growth 2014 13.52 -13.52 100%71.48 -71.48 100%High Growth 2015 13.89 -13.89 100%73.71 -73.71 100%High Growth 2016 14.28 -14.28 100%76.14 -76.14 100%High Growth 2017 14.66 -14.66 100%78.67 -78.67 100%High Growth 2018 15.00 0.02 15.02 100%81.19 -81.19 100%High Growth 2019 15.00 0.38 15.38 98%83.69 -83.69 100%High Growth 2020 15.00 0.73 15.73 95%84.12 2.05 86.17 98%High Growth 2021 15.00 1.09 16.09 93%84.12 4.55 88.66 95%High Growth 2022 15.00 1.45 16.45 91%84.12 7.04 91.15 92%High Growth 2023 15.00 181 16.81 89%8412 9.56 93.68 90%High Growth 2024 15.00 2.18 17.18 87%84.12 12.19 96.30 87%High Growth 2025 15.00 2.56 17.56 85%84.12 14.87 98.98 85%High Growth 2026 15.00 2.96 17.96 84%84.12 17.65 101.77 83%High Growth 2027 15.00 3.37 18.37 82%84.12 20.53 104.64 80%High Growth 2028 15.00 3.79 18.79 80%84.12 23.45 107.57 78%High Growth 2029 15.00 4.23 19.23 78%84.12 26.32 110.44 76%High Growth 2030 15.00 4.70 19.70 76%84.12 29.30 113.42 74%High Growth 2031 15.00 5.20 20.20 74%84.12 32.50 116.61 72%
6 II CHAPTER 7 II APPENDICES
APPENDIX 7.2 II PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
Low GROWTH
Peak Day Demand -Served and Unserved (MDthId)
Before Resource Mditions &Net of DSM Savings
Case Gas Year
Low Growth 2012
Low Growth 2013
Low Growth 2014
Low Growth 2015
Low Growth 2016
Low Growth 2017
Low Growth 2018
Low Growth 2019
Low Growth 2020
Low Growth 2021
Low Growth 2022
Low Growth 2023
Low Growth 2024
Low Growth 2025
Low Growth 2026
Low Growth 2027
Low Growth 2028
Low Growth 2029
Low Growth 2030
Low Growth 2031
La
Grande
Served
7.23
7.28
7.33
7.39
7.44
7.48
7.52
7.56
7.61
7.65
7.69
7.72
7.76
7.80
7.84
7.88
7.92
7.97
8.01
8.05
La
Grande
Unserved
La
Grande
Total
7.23
7.28
7.33
7.39
7.44
7.48
7.52
7.56
7.61
7.65
7.69
7.72
7.76
7.80
7.84
7.88
7.92
7.97
8.01
8.05
La
Grands %
of Peak
Day
Served
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
WAIID
Served
254.74
257.33
260.42
263.55
266.63
269.67
272.62
275.55
278.45
281.36
284.23
287.17
290.09
293.06
295.98
298.91
301.81
304.74
307.63
310.55
WMD WAIID
Unserved Total
-254.74
-257.33
-260.42
-263.55
-266.63
-269.67
-272.62
•275.55
-278.45
•281.36
-284.23
-287.17
-290.09
-293.06
-295.98
-298.91
-301.81
-304.74
-307.63
-310.55
WAIID %
of Peak
Day
Served
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100°h
100%
100%
100%
Case Gas Year
Low Growth 2012
Low Growth 2013
Low Growth 2014
Low Growth 2015
Low Growth 2016
Low Growth 2017
Low Growth 2018
Low Growth 2019
Low Growth 2020
Low Growth 2021
Low Growth 2022
Low Growth 2023
Low Growth 2024
Low Growth 2025
Low Growth 2026
Low Growth 2027
Low Growth 2028
Low Growth 2029
Low Growth 2030
Low Growth 2031
Kiamath
Falls
Served
9.51
9.58
9.68
9.79
9.90
9.99
10.08
10.17
10.26
10.35
10.44
10.53
10.62
10.71
10.80
10.89
10.98
11.07
11.15
11.24
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls
Total
9.51
9.58
9.68
9.79
9.90
9.99
10.08
10.17
10.26
10.35
10.44
10.53
10.62
10.71
10.80
10.89
10.98
11.07
11.15
11.24
Klamath
Falls %of
Peak Day
Served
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100°h
100%
100%
100%
Medfordl
Roseburg
Served
68.19
68.60
69.28
70.12
71.04
71.97
72.90
73.80
74.70
75.58
76.46
77.33
78.23
79.12
80.03
80.94
81.83
82.65
83.45
84.09
Medfordl Medford/
Roseburg Roseburg
Unserved Total
-68.19
-68.60
-69.28
-70.12
-71.04
-71.97
-72.90
-73.80
-74.70
-75.58
-76.46
-77.33
-78.23
-79.12
-80.03
-80.94
-81.83
-82.65
-83.45
-8409
Medfordl
Rose burg
%of Peak
Day
Served
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
APPENDIX 7.2 II PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
COLDEST IN 20 YEARS
Peak Day Demand -Served and Unserved (MDthId)
Before Resource Mditions &Net of DSM Savings
2O12AVISTANATURALGA5IRP II 7
La
Grande
Unserved
WA/ID
UnservedCaseGasYear
Coldest in 20 2012
Coldest in 20 2013
Coldest in 20 2014
Coldest in 20 2015
Coldest in 20 2016
Coldest in 20 2017
Coldest in 20 2018
Coldest in 20 2019
Coldest in 20 2020
Coldest in 20 2021
Coldest in 20 2022
Coldest in 20 2023
Coldest in 20 2024
Coldest in 20 2025
Coldest in 20 2026
Coldest in 20 2027
Coldest in 20 2028
Coldest in 20 2029
Coldest in 20 2030
Coldest in 20 2031
La
Grande
Served
7.23
7.31
7.20
7.23
7.29
7.36
7.42
7.46
7.50
7.56
7.58
7.61
7.64
7.67
7.70
7.73
7.76
7.80
7.83
7.86
La
Grande
Total
7.23
7.31
7.20
7.23
7.29
7.36
7.42
7.46
7.50
7.56
7.58
7.61
7.64
7.67
7.70
7.73
7.76
7.80
7.83
7.86
La
Grande %
of Peak
Day
Served
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
WA/ID
Served
230.63
234.53
232.87
235.45
239.40
243.63
247.71
250.95
254.42
258.24
261.16
264.03
267.26
270.30
273.64
276.33
279.33
282.24
285.11
287.97
WMD %
of Peak
WA/ID Day
Total Served
230.63 100%
234.53 100%
232.87 100%
235.45 100%
239.40 100%
-243.63 100%
-247.71 100%
-250.95 100%
-254.42 100%
-258.24 100%
-261.16 100%
-264.03 100%
•267.26 100%
-270.30 100%
*273.64 100%
-276.33 100%
-279.33 100%
-282.24 100%
-285.11 100%
-287.97 100%
Kiamath
Falls
Unserved
Medford/
Roseburg
UnservedCaseGasYear
Coldest in 20 2012
Coldest in 20 2013
Coldest in 20 2014
Coldest in 20 2015
Coldest in 20 2016
Coldest in 20 2017
Coldest in 20 2018
Coldest in 20 2019
Coldest in 20 2020
Coldest in 20 2021
Coldest in 20 2022
Coldest in 20 2023
Coldest in 20 2024
Coldest in 20 2025
Coldest in 20 2026
Coldest in 20 2027
Coldest in 20 2028
Coldest in 20 2029
Coldest in 20 2030
Coldest in 20 2031
Kiamath
Falls
Served
12.69
12.83
12.68
12.79
13.00
13.21
13.40
13.55
13.70
13.88
14.01
14.13
14.27
14.40
14.54
14.65
14.78
14.91
15.02
15.14
Klamath
Falls
Total
12.69
12.83
12.68
12.79
-13.00
-13.21
-13.40
-13.55
-13.70
-13.88
-14.01
-14.13
-14.27
-14.40
-14.54
-14.65
-14.78
-14.91
-15.02
-15.14
Klamath
Falls %ot
Peak Day
Served
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Medford/
Roseburg
Served
59.07
59.66
59.08
59.75
60.91
62.15
63.38
64.38
65.42
66.55
67.53
68.38
69.35
70.28
71.28
72.13
73.04
73.83
74.59
75.44
Medford!
Rosebury
Medford/%of Peak
Roseburg Day
Total Served
59.07 100%
59.66 100%
59.08 100%
59.75 100%
60.91 100%
-62.15 100%
-63.38 100%
-64.38 100%
-65.42 100%
-66.55 100%
-67.53 100%
-68.38 100%
-69.35 100%
-70.28 100%
-71.28 100%
•72.13 100%
-73.04 100%
-73.83 100%
-74.59 100%
-75.44 100%
2O12AVISTANATURALGASIRP II 1
APPENDIX 8.1 II DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING
OVERVIEW
The primary goal of distribution system planning is to design for present needs and to plan for future
expansion to serve demand growth.This allows Avista to satisfy current demand-serving requirements
while taking steps toward meeting future needs.Distribution system planning identifies potential
problems and areas of the distribution system that require reinforcement.By knowing when and where
pressure problems may occur,the necessary reinforcements can be incorporated into normal maintenance.
Thus,more costly reactive and emergency solutions can be avoided.
COMPUTER MODELING
When designing new main extensions,computer modeling can help determine the optimum size facilities
for present and future needs.Undersized facilities are costly to replace,and oversized facilities incur
unnecessary expenses to Avista and its customers.
THEORY AND APPLICATION OF STUDY
Natural gas network load studies have evolved in the last decade to become a highly technical and useful
means of analyzing the operation of a distribution system.Using a pipeline fluid flow formula,a specified
parameter of each pipe element can be simultaneously solved.Through years of research,pipeline
equations have been refined to the point where solutions obtained closely represent actual system
behavior.
Avista conducts network load studies using GL Noble Denton’s SynerGEE®4.6.0 software.This
computer-based modeling tool runs on a Windows operating system and allows users to analyze and
interpret solutions graphically.
CREATING A MODEL
To properly study the distribution system,all natural gas main information is entered (length,pipe
roughness and ID)into the model.“Main”refers to all pipelines supplying services.
Nodes are placed at all pipe intersections,beginnings and ends of mains,changes in pipe
diameter/material and to identify all large customers.A model element connects two nodes together.
Therefore,a “to node”and a “from node”will represent an element between those two nodes.Almost all
of the elements in a model are pipes.
Regulators are treated like adjustable valves in which the downstream pressure is set to a known value.
Although specific regulator types can be entered for realistic behavior,the expected flow passing through
the actual regulator is determined and the modeled regulator is forced to accommodate such flows.
FLUID MECHANICS OF THE MODEL
Pipe flow equations are used to determine the relationships between flow,pressure drop,diameter and
pipe length.For all models,the Fundamental Flow equation (FM)is used due to its demonstrated
reliability.
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Efficiency factors are used to account for the equivalent resistance of valves,fittings and angle changes
within the distribution system.Starting with a 95 percent factor,the efficiency can be changed to fine tune
the model to match field results.
Pipe roughness along with flow conditions creates a friction factor for all pipes within a system.Thus,
each pipe may have a unique friction factor,minimizing computational errors associated with generalized
friction values.
LOAD DATA
All studies are considered steady state;all natural gas entering the distribution system must equal the
natural gas exiting the distribution system at any given time.
Customer loads are obtained from Avista’s customer billing system and converted to an algebraic format
so loads can be generated for various conditions.Customer Management Module (CMM),a new add-on
application for SynerGEE processes customer usage history and generates a base load (non-temperature
dependent)and heat load (varying with temperature)for each customer.
In the event of a peak day or an extremely cold weather condition,it is assumed that all curtailable loads
are interrupted.Therefore,the models will be conducted with only core loads.
DETERMINING NATURAL GAS CUSTOMERS’MAXIMUM HOURLY USAGE
DETERMINING DESIGN PEAK HOURLY LOAD
The design peak hourly load for a customer is estimated by adding the hourly base load and the hourly
heat load for a design temperature.This estimate reflects highest system hourly demands,as shown in
Table 1:
Table I -Determining Peak*Hourly Load
Peak Hourly Base +Peak Hourly —Peak Hourly
Load Heat Load Load
This method differs from the approach that we use for IRP peak day load planning.The primary reason
for this difference is due to the importance of responding to hourly peaking in the distribution system,
while IRP resource planning focuses on peak day requirements to the city gate.
APPLYING LOADS
Having estimated the peak loads for all customers in a particular service area,the model can be loaded.
The first step is to assign each load to the respective node or element.
GENERATING LOADS
Temperature-based and non-temperature-based loads are established for each node or element,thus loads
can be varied based on any temperature (HDD).Such a tool is necessary to evaluate the difference in flow
and pressure due to different weather conditions.
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GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS)
Several years ago we converted our natural gas facility maps to GIS.While the GIS can provide a variety
ofmap products,its power lies in its analytical capability.A GIS consists of three components:spatial
operations,data association and map representation.
A GIS allows analysts to conduct spatial operations (relating a feature or facility to another
geographically).A spatial operation is possible if a facility displayed on a map maintains a relationship to
other facilities.Spatial relationships allow analysts to perform a multitude of queries,including:
ii Identifi electric customers adjacent to natural gas mains who are not currently using natural gas
ii Display the ratio of customers to length of pipe in Emergency Operating Procedure zones
(geographical areas defined by the number of customers and their safety in the event of an
emergency)
ii Classif’high-pressure pipeline proximity criteria
The second component of the GIS is data association.This allows analysts to model relationships
between facilities displayed on a map to tabular information in a database.Databases store facility
information such as pipe size,pipe material,pressure rating,or related information (e.g.,customer
databases,equipment databases and work management systems).Data association allows interactive
queries within a map-like environment.
Finally,the GIS provides a means to create maps of existing facilities in different scales,projections and
displays.In addition,the results of a comparative or spatial analysis can be presented pictorially.This
allows users to present complex analyses rapidly and in an easy-to-understand method.
BUILDING SYNERGEE®MODELS FROM A GIS
The GIS can provide additional benefits through the ease of creation and maintenance of load studies.
Avista can create load studies from the GIS based on tabular data (attributes)installed during the mapping
process.
MAINTENANCE USING A GIS
The GIS helps maintain the existing distribution facility by allowing a design to be initiated on a GIS.
Currently,design jobs for the company’s natural gas system are managed through Avista’s Facility
Management (AFM)tool.Once jobs are completed,the as-built information is automatically updated on
GIS,eliminating the need to convert physical maps to a GIS at a later date.Because the facility is updated
load studies can remain current by refreshing the analysis.
DEVELOPING A PRESENT CASE LOAD STUDY
In order for any model to have accuracy,a present case model has to be developed that reflects what the
system was doing when downstream pressures and flows are known.To establish the present case,
pressure charts located throughout the distribution system are used.
Pressure charts plot pressure (some include temperature)versus time over several days.Various locations
recording simultaneously are used to validate the model.Customer loads on SynerGEE®are generated to
correspond with actual temperatures recorded on the pressure charts.An accurate model’s downstream
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pressures will match the corresponding location’s field pressure chart.Efficiency factors are fine-tuned to
further refine the model’s pressures.
Since telemetry at the gate stations record hourly flow,temperature and pressure,these values are used to
validate the model.All loads are representative of the average daily temperature and are defined as hourly
flows.Ifthe load generating method is truly accurate,all natural gas entering the actual system (physical)
equals total natural gas demand solved by the simulated system (model).
DEVELOPING A PEAK CASE LOAD STUDY
Using the calculated peak loads,a model can be analyzed to identify the behavior during a peak day.The
efficiency factors established in the present case are used throughout subsequent models.
ANALYZING RESULTS
After a model has been balanced,several features within the SynerGEE®model are used to translate
results.Color plots are generated to depict flow direction,pressure,pipe diameter and gradient with
specific break points.Reinforcements can be identified by visual inspection.When user edits are
completed and the model is re-balanced,pressure changes can be visually displayed,helping identify
optimum reinforcements.
An optimum reinforcement will have the largest pressure increase per unit length.Reinforcements can
also be deferred and occasionally eliminated through load mitigation of DSM efforts.
PLANNING CRITERIA
In most instances,models resulting in node pressures below 15 psig indicate a likelihood of distribution
low pressure and therefore necessitate reinforcements.For most Avista distribution systems,a minimum
of 15 psig will ensure deliverability as natural gas exits the distribution mains and travels through service
pipelines to a customer’s meter.Some Avista distribution areas operate at lower pressures and are
assigned a minimum pressure of 5 psig for model results.Given a lower operating pressure,service
pipelines in such areas are sized accordingly to maintain reliability.
DETERMINING MAXIMUM CAPACITY FOR A SYSTEM
Using a peak day model,loads can be prorated at intervals until area pressures drop to 15 psig.At that
point,the total amount of natural gas entering the system equals the maximum capacity before new
construction is necessary.The difference between natural gas entering the system in this scenario and a
peak day model is the maximum additional capacity that can be added to the system.
Since the approximate natural gas usage for the average customer is known,it can be determined how
many new customers can be added to the distribution system before necessitating system reinforcements.
The above models and procedures are utilized with new construction proposals or pipe reinforcements to
determine the potential increase in capacity.
FIVE-YEAR FORECASTING
The intent of our load study forecasting is to predict the system’s behavior and reinforcements necessary
within the next five years.Various Avista personnel provide information to determine where and why
certain areas may experience growth.
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By combining information from Avista’s demand forecast,IRP planning efforts,regional growth plans
and area developments,proposals for pipeline reinforcements and expansions can be evaluated with
SynerGEE®.