20180921notice_of_filing_order_no_34149.pdf

Office of the Secretary
Service Date
September 21,2018
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA )CASE NO.AVU-G-18-05
CORPORATION DBA AVISTA UTILITIES')
2018 NATURAL GAS INTEGRATED )NOTICE OF FILINGRESOURCEPLAN)
NOTICE OF
MODIFIED PROCEDURE
NOTICE OF INTERVENTION
DEADLINE
)ORDER NO.34149
On August 31,2018,Avista Corporation dba Avista Utilities (the Company)filed its
2018 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).The Company files a natural gas IRP every two
years to describe the Company's plans to meet its customers'future natural gas needs.The IRP
must discuss the subjects required by Commission Order Nos.25342,27024 and 27098,and
Section 303(b)(3)of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA),15 USC §3202.1 With
this Order,the Commission provides notice of the IRP,sets deadlines by which interested persons
may submit written comments on the IRP,and orders that the case be processed under the
Commission's Rules of Modified Procedure.
NOTICE OF IRP FILING
YOU ARE HEREBY NOTIFIED that the Company's natural gas IRP contains an
Executive Summary,and chapters on Demand Forecasts;Demand-Side Resources;Supply-Side
Resources;the Company's Integrated Resource Portfolio;Alternate Scenarios,Portfolios,and
Stochastic Analysis;Distribution Planning;Policy Considerations,and the Company's Action
Plan.The followinginformation comes from the IRP's Executive Summary.Further detail may
be obtained in the IRP's remaining chapters and appendices.
'Per Commission Order No.32233,Avista must file its IRP by August 31 of every even-numbered year.
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YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company states its IRP identifies a strategic
natural gas resource portfolio that meets expected customer demand requirements over the next 20
years.The IRP involves input from the Company's Technical AdvisoryCommittee (TAC),which
includes Commission Staff,peer utilities,customers and other stakeholders.Topics discussed with
the TAC include natural gas demand forecasts,demand-side management (DSM),supply-side
resources,computer modeling tools and distribution planning.The Company states the result is
an integratedresource portfolio designed to serve customers'natural gas needs well into the future
while balancing cost and risk.IRP at 1.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company states that it addresses
uncertainties surrounding supply and demand by evaluating multiple scenarios with wide-ranging
possible outcomes.Id.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company discusses its demand forecasts.
The Company states that it forecasts a 0.2%annual,average growth rate (net of projected DSM
program savings),with average day,system-wide core demand increasing from 93,900 dekatherms
per day (Dth/day)in 2018 to 94,205 Dth/day in 2037.The Company forecasts that coincidental
peak day,system-wide core demand will increase from a peak of 377,206 Dth/day in 2018 to
427,852 Dth/day in 2037.Forecasted non-coincidental peak day demand peaks at 347,228 Dth/day
in 2018 and increases to 392,601 Dth/day in 2037,for a 0.71%compounded growth rate in peak
day requirements (net of projected DSM savings).Id at 1-4.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company presents its natural gas price
forecasts.The Company states gas prices are a significant part of the total cost of a resource option,
which affects the avoided cost threshold for determining cost-effectiveness of conservation
measures and how customers consume natural gas.The Company states that based on the costs
and volumes of produced shale gas,production costs should remain low for quite some time even
with increased incremental demand for liquefied natural gas exports,transportation fuels,and
increased industrial consumption.The Company sets forth high,medium and low price forecasts
to represent a reasonable range of pricing possibilities over the next 20 years.The Company notes
it used an expected elasticity response factor to model how customers'consumption of natural gas
will respond to price changes.Id.at 5-6.
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YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Cornpany discusses existing and potential
natural gas supply resources.The Company states it has a diversified portfolio of gas supply
resources,includingcontracts to buy gas from several supply basins,stored gas,and firm capacity
rights on six pipelines.The Company also notes that higher customer growth continues to be offset
by lower use-per-customer and an increased amount of DSM.Id at 6-7.This has eliminated the
need for additional supply-side resources,making management of underutilized resources
essential.The Company states that the combination of low natural gas process and carbon taxes
and other programs had led to a higher potential for DSM measures than three previous IRPs.Id
at 14.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company discusses projected resource
needs.The Company states the average case and expected case demand scenarios show the
Company will not be resource deficient during the 20-yearplanning horizon.The Company states
that under either scenario,it has ample time to carefully monitor any acceleration in demand
growth,and to plan and take action on potential resource additions.The Company also describes
several alternate demand scenarios that the Company considered during the planning process.Id
at 7-1 l.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company states that even with the
planning,analysis,and conclusions reached in the IRP,uncertainty still exists.The Company
states it will diligently monitor issues and challenges,including:(1)demand scenarios that will
provide insight into how quickly resource needs can change if demand varies from the expected
case;(2)how natural gas use in emergingmarkets will affect regional gas infrastructure and natural
gas pricing;and (3)other issues that might arise with demand,pricing,and LNG exports.Id.at
11-12.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the IRP contains a 2019-2020 Action Plan
outlining activities identified by the IRP team with input from Company management and TAC
members.The Company states the Action Plan positions the Company to provide the best cost/risk
resource portfolio and to support and improve IRP planning.The Company states key ongoing
components of the Action Plan include:
Adopt an individual measure level for dynamic DSM program structure in
its analytics for individual portfolios;
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Work with Staff to clarify distribution system analyses in the 2020 IRP;
Work with Staff to clarify types of distribution costs for possible inclusion
in avoided cost calculation;
Revisit coldest on record planning standard and discuss with TAC for
prudency;
Provide additional information on resource optimization risks and benefits;
Discuss integration of Energy Trust (ETO)and Conservation Potential
Assessment data,program experience,knowledge of current and
development markets,and future codes and standards;
Consult Washington State Commission's Acknowledgment Letter
Attachment in its 2017 Electric IRP regarding carbon costs and greenhouse
gas regulations;
Ensure that ETO has sufficient funding to acquire therm savings as
approved by the Energy Trust Board;
Perform high pressure distribution or city gate station capital work as
needed;and
Meet regularlywith Staff to provide information on market activities and
significant changes in assumptions and/or status of activities related to the
IRP or natural gas procurement.
Id.at 12-14.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that the Company's IRP and supporting workpapers
have been filed with the Commission and are available for public inspection during regular
business hours at the Commission offices.The IRP is also available on the Commission's web
site at www.puc.idaho.gov.Click on the "File Room"tab at the top of the page,scroll down to
"Natural Gas Cases,"and then click on the case number as shown on the front of this document.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that all proceedings in this case will be held
pursuant to the Commission's jurisdictionunder Title 61 of the Idaho Code.The Commission may
enter any final order consistent with its authority under Title 61.
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YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that all proceedings in this matter will be conducted
pursuant to the Commission's Rules of Procedure,IDAPA 31.01.01.000 et seq.,including the
Modified Procedure rules referenced below.
NOTICE OF INTERVENTION DEADLINE
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that persons desiring to intervene in this matter to
obtain parties'rights of participation must file a Petition to Intervene with the Commission
pursuant to this Commission's Rules of Procedure 72 and 73,IDAPA 31.01.01.072 and -.073.
Persons who wish to intervene as a party must file a Petition to Intervene no later than
October 9,2018.Persons desiring to present their views without parties'rights of participation
are not required to intervene and may present their comments without prior notification to the
Commission or the parties,as described below.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that after the intervention deadline runs,the
Commission Secretary shall issue a Notice of Parties.Staff then will informally confer with the
parties about appropriate scheduling for this case.
NOTICE OF MODIFIED PROCEDURE
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that that the Commission has determined that the
public interest may not require a formal hearing in this matter and will proceed under Modified
Procedure (that is,persons will present their views through written comments)pursuant to Rules
201 through 204 of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission's Rules of Procedure,IDAPA
31.01.01.201 through .204.The Commission notes that Modified Procedure and written comments
have proven to be an effective means for obtaining public input and participation.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that any person desiring to state a position on the
IRP must file a written comment in support or opposition with the Commission no later than
December 13,2018.The comment must contain a statement of reasons supporting the comment.
In addition,persons desiring a hearing must specifically request a hearing in their written
comments and explain why they believe that Modified Procedure should not be used to process
this case.Written comments concerning the IRP shall be mailed to the Commission and the
Company at the addresses reflected below:
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NO.34149 5
Commission Secretary Linda Gervais
Idaho Public Utilities Commission Manager,Regulatory Policy
PO Box 83720 Avista Corporation
Boise,ID 83720-0074 1411 E.Mission Avenue PO Box 3727
Spokane,WA 99220-0500
Street Address for Express Mail:E-mail:[e-mail]
472 W.Washington Street David J.Meyer
Boise,ID 83702-5918 Vice President and Chief Counsel of
Regulatory and Government Affairs
Avista Corporation
1411 E.Mission Avenue PO Box 3727
Spokane,WA 99220-0500
E-mail:[e-mail]
The comments should contain the case caption and case number shown on the first page of this
document.Persons desiring to submit comments via e-mail may do so by accessing the
Commission's home page located at www.puc.idaho.gov,scrolling to the "Consumers"tab,
clicking the "Utility Case Comment or Question Form,"and completing the form using the case
number as it appears on the front of this document.These comments must also be sent to the
Company at the e-mail addresses listed above.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that Avista may file reply comments,if necessary,
no later than December 20,2018.
YOU ARE FURTHER NOTIFIED that if no written comments or protests are received
within the time limit set,the Commission will consider this matter on its merits and enter its Order
without a formal hearing.If written comments are received within the time limit set,the
Commission will consider them and,in its discretion,may set the same for formal hearing.
ORDER
IT IS HEREBY ORDERED that that this case be processed by Modified Procedure.
IT ID FURTHER ORDERED that persons desiring to intervene in this case for the
purpose of obtaining parties'rights of participation must file a Petition to Intervene with the
Commission,pursuant to Rules 72 and 73,IDAPA 31.01.01.72-73,no later than October 9,2018.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that persons desiring to comment on the Company's
natural gas IRP shall file written comments with the Commission no later than December 13,2018.
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IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that M to um;Ok opi)comments,if necessary,no
later than December 20,2018.
DONE by Order of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission at Boise,Idaho this
day of September 2018.
PAUL KJELLiÑl R,PRESIDENT
KRIÚlNE RAPER,OMMISSIONER
ERIC ANDERSON,COMMISSIONER
ATTEST:
Diane M.Hanian
Commission Secretary
AVUGl805_ep NtcFiling
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