20180831Avista 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix.pdf

2018
Natural Gas
Integrated Resource Plan
August 31, 2018
Safe Harbor Statement

This document contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to a
variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors, most of which are beyond the Company’s
control, and many of which could have a significant impact on the Company’s operations,
results of operations and financial condition, and could cause actual results to differ
materially from those anticipated.

For a further discussion of these factors and other important factors, please refer to the
Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-
looking statements contained in this document speak only as of the date hereof. The
Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or
statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date on which such
statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New risks,
uncertainties and other factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for
management to predict all of such factors, nor can it assess the impact of each such factor
on the Company’s business or the extent to which any such factor, or combination of
factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-
looking statement.

2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendices
TABLE OF CONTENTS: APPENDICES
Appendix 0.1 TAC Member List ........................................................................ Page 1
0.2 Comments and Responses to the 2014 IRP ........................................ 2
Appendix 1.1 Avista Corporation 2014 Natural Gas IRP Work Plan ........................... 6
1.2 IRP Guideline Compliance Summaries .............................................. 12
Appendix 2.1 Economic Outlook and Customer Count Forecast .............................. 24
2.2 Customer Forecasts by Region .......................................................... 41
2.3 Demand Coefficient Calculations ....................................................... 77
2.4 Heating Degree Day Data .................................................................. 84
2.5 Demand Sensitivities and Demand Scenarios .................................... 90
2.6 Demand Forecast Sensitivities and Scenarios Descriptions ............... 92
2.7 Annual Demand, Avg Day & Peak Day Demand (Net of DSM) .......... 96
2.8 Demand Before and After DSM ........................................................ 101
2.9 Detailed Demand Data ..................................................................... 106
Appendix 3.1 Avista Gas CPA Report Final 4/23/2014 .......................................... 118
3.2 Environmental Externalities .............................................................. 212
Appendix 4.1 Current Transportation/Storage Rates and Assumptions ................. 215
Appendix 6.1 Monthly Price Data by Basin ............................................................ 216
6.2 Weighted Average Cost of Capital ................................................... 222
6.3 Supply Side Resource Options ........................................................ 223
6.4 Avoided Costs Detail ........................................................................ 224
Appendix 7.1 High Case Demand and Resources Selected Graphs ...................... 239
7.2 Other Scenario Peak Day Demand Table ........................................ 241
Appendix 8.1 Distribution System Modeling .......................................................... 247
8.2 Oregon Capital … ............................................................................. 251
Appendix A TAC Meeting #1 .......................................................................... 253
B TAC Meeting #2 .......................................................................... 354
C TAC Meeting #3 .......................................................................... 465
D TAC Meeting #4 .......................................................................... 680

APPENDIX - CHAPTER 0

APPENDIX 0.1: TAC MEMBER LIST
Organization Representatives
Applied Energy Group Kurtis Kolnowski
Avista
Terrence Browne Jody Morehouse
Mike Dillon Tom Pardee
Ryan Finesilver Kaylene Schultz
Grant Forsyth Eric Scott
James Gall Kerry Shroy
Justin Dorr Debbie Simock
John Lyons Shawn Bonfield
Annette Brandon Jeff Webb
Cascade Natural Gas Company Ashton Davis Brian Robertson
Energy Trust of Oregon Jack Cullen Spencer
Moersfelder
Fortis Robert Schuster Ken Ross
Idaho Public Utility Commission Brad Iverson-Long Kevin Keyt Stacey Donohue
Northwest Gas Association Dan Kirschner
Northwest Natural Gas Tammy Linver Steve Storm
Oregon Public Utility Commission Lisa Gorsuch Seth Wiggins
TransCanada Jay Story
Washington Utilities and
Transportation Commission Kathi Scanlan Dave Nightingale
Andrew Rector
Williams Northwest Pipeline Mike Rasmuson Jon Rowley
Rob Harmen
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 1
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 0

APPENDIX 0.2: COMMENTS AND RESPONSES TO 2018 DRAFT INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN
The following table summarizes the significant comments on our DRAFT as submitted by TAC members and
Avista’s responses. This IRP produced reduced forecasted demand scenarios and no near term resource needs
even in our most robust demand scenario. We appreciate the time and effort invested by all our TAC members
throughout the IRP process. Many good suggestions have been made and we have incorporated those that
enhance the document.

Document
Reference[1] Comment/Question Avista
Response
6 - Integrated
Resource
Portfolio
Low/Medium/High natural gas price forecasts.
Reasonable price forecasts are important in developing a
utility’s avoided cost threshold and determining cost-
effectiveness of conservation measures. For Avista’s
expected case, the company projects its nominal gas price in
the 4 dollar per dekatherm ($/Dth) range for 2026-2027,
which amounts to a 30 percent increase over a ten-year span.
Beyond 2027, Avista projects an increase to $7/Dth and a 75
percent increase in natural gas prices in the outer-years.
Over the entire IRP planning horizon, Avista projects 133
percent change in natural gas prices. Staff is concerned
Avista may perpetuate a high-side bias of natural gas prices.
Further, staff recognizes no company can accurately predict
future natural gas prices; however, the company must ensure
its natural gas price forecasts represent the most reasonable
expectation of the future.
Added
supplemental
language to
Chapter 6
beginning with
page 125
In July, staff requested the company provide additional
information regarding its consultants’ gas price forecasts. On
July 13, 2018, the company filed confidential electronic
workpapers of its gas price forecast data in Docket UG-
170940. Staff appreciates Avista prompt response to the data
request. Staff also requests a more detailed description of the
company’s gas price (and expected price strip) forecast at
the Henry Hub, including how Avista derived its regional
gas price variation from the company’s two fundamental
price forecasts from credible industry sources. Further, staff
asks Avista to explain its blending methodology of its
forwards and outer-year price forecasts, and also discuss the
qualitative and quantitative factors that correlate with the
projected rise in prices, especially in the outer-years of its
natural gas price forecast.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 2
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 0

2 - Demand
Forecasts
Fuel conversion program impact-emerging natural gas
demand. Compared to previous IRPs, Avista's new 20-year
outlook for customer growth has increased by nearly 12,000
customers. Avista indicates that much of its new, emerging
demand is directly related to a conversion program offered
in Washington (and Idaho), where customers are offered
assistance in converting to natural gas and fuel switching. Additional
clarification
added to page 29
- Chapter 2
1111Staff requests additional information on whether Avista
is referring to 1) Washington's line extension allowance pilot
(LEAP), 2) the company's existing fuel conversion program
funded through the electric conservation rider, Electric
Schedule 91, or 3) the cumulative impact of LEAP and the
fuel conversion program. Staff recommends the company
provide additional data, narrative and specificity with regard
to projections of emerging natural gas demand related to
consumer-funded programs or incentives.
6 - Integrated
Resource
Portfolio
1111Resource cost test. Avista evaluates the cost
effectiveness of demand-side management (DSM) programs
against the initial avoided cost curve using appropriate
resource cost tests. Staff asks Avista to clarify the resource
cost test(s) used.
Added to Chapter
6 page 142
9 - Action Plan
DSM—Integration of ETO and AEG/CPA data. Effective
January 1, 2017, Avista transitioned its Oregon gas DSM
regular income, commercial, and industrial customer
programs to the Energy Trust of Oregon (ETO), with the
ETO being the sole administrator. Staff requests additional
information about the difference between DSM output data
from ETO’s RA model and Applied Energy Group (AEG)
Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA) tool, which
identify the total 20-year cost-effective modeled savings
potential to estimate Avista’s final savings forecast. For the
next IRP, staff recommends the Advisory Group discuss the
integration of ETO and AEG/CPA data as well as past
program(s) experience, knowledge of current and developing
markets, and future codes and standards.
Added to Action
Plan section

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 3
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 0

5 - Policy
Considerations
Dynamic-DSM. Avista’s current analytical process for the
Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA) is based on a
deterministic model, as compared to the assumptions within
the expected case. For the 2018 IRP, Avista attempted to
apply a dynamic-DSM using the Sendout model, but the
company determined an alternate method would be
necessary due to current model constraints. As outlined in
Avista’s 2019-2020 action plan, the next IRP will contain a
dynamic DSM program structure utilizing new analytics.
Avista intends to recreate its Sendout model and inputs and
transform it into a new Excel-based tool. This new tool and
methodology will allow flexibility to model DSM and other
potential supply side resources on a case by case basis.
Added specific
language to
action item.
Avista will model
on an individual
level of DSM
measure
Staff suggests Avista discuss whether the company will use
individual or bundling of DSM measures, including
grouping by dollars or efficiency levels. Avista’s departure
from its current modeling also will allow for a unique
opportunity for comparison of methodologies. Staff also
requests the company evaluate its deterministic and dynamic
DSM tools, including the results and benefits of each
methodology.
9 - Action Plan
Carbon costs. Based on the initial proposed carbon
legislation in Senate Bill 6203, Avista modelled Washington
carbon costs at $10 per MTCO2e starting in 2019 and rising
to $30 per MTCO2e by 2030. Further, the company
analyzed three carbon sensitivities and associated impacts on
demand forecasts to address the uncertainty about carbon
legislation. Staff is pleased Avista introduced a new risk
scenario in its 2018 IRP: 80% below 1990 emissions. Added to 2020
Avista Natural
Gas IRP Action
Item

Staff notes that the low-priced natural gas, in addition to
carbon taxes or other programs, has led to a higher potential
for DSM measures as compared to the previous three IRP’s.
Further, Staff recognizes the uncertainties in carbon policy.
For the next IRP, Staff suggests the company consult the
Commission’s Acknowledgement Letter Attachment in its
2017 Electric IRP (Docket UE-161036), where emissions
price modelling is discussed, including the cost of risk of
future greenhouse gas regulation, in addition to known
regulations.
7 - Alternate
Scenarios,
Portfolios,
Stochastic
Analysis
Supply resource comparison. For this IRP, the only case
that identifies a resource deficiency is the High Growth/Low
Price scenario. At Staff’s request, Avista added Tables 7.2
and 7.3 to this IRP, which includes costs/rates as well as
availability. Staff appreciates Avista’s response to this
request.
Added detail and
explanation
within the
chapter
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 4
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 0

7 - Alternate
Scenarios,
Portfolios,
Stochastic
Analysis
Renewable natural gas (RNG). Effective July 1, 2018,
House Bill 2580 became law and promotes the sustainable
development of RNG supply. For the first time in its natural
gas IRP, the company identified RNG as a “solve” where
landfill RNG is selected as a resource in Idaho. In addition
to Tables 7.2 and 7.3, staff requests additional narrative
regarding subsidies that may make RNG-qualified
renewable fuel a least-cost optimization solution, which may
further contribute to the decarbonization of Avista’s natural
gas system. Additional data and discussion regarding the
company’s RNG resource cost assumptions, including
subsidies, rates, plant efficiency and size would be helpful.
Added detail and
explanation
within the
chapter
9 - Action Plan
Reconcile peak planning standard and natural gas
optimization. Avista’s planning standard is determined
using the coldest day on record for each service area, which
is an aggressive planning standard given a temperature
“experienced rarely, or only once.” Further, there is a high
correlation between usage and temperature, as depicted in
the company’s use-per-customer forecast in Figure 2.2. In
this IRP, slightly higher customer growth continues to be
offset by lower use-per-customer and an increased amount
of DSM, which has eliminated the need for Avista to acquire
additional supply-side resources. Added to 2020
Avista Natural
Gas IRP Action
Item

Yet the company continues to realize unutilized resources
like supply, transportation, storage and capacity—when
combined, create valuable Avista products. With its ongoing
surplus and well-positioned resources exceeding system
demand, Staff suggests providing additional information on
optimization benefits, and also analyzing potential risk
exposure in its next IRP. Further, Staff recommends
discussing with its Advisory Group whether its current
coldest day on record planning standard continues to be a
prudent long-term planning approach. The company could
look at peer utilities in with similar climate and compare
Avista’s planning approach.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 5
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

APPENDIX 1.1: AVISTA CORPORATION 2020 NATURAL GAS INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN WORK PLAN
IRP WORK PLAN REQUIREMENTS
Section 480-90-238 (4), of the natural gas Integrated Resource Plan (“IRP”) rules, specify requirements for
the IRP Work Plan:
Not later than twelve months prior to the due date of a plan, the utility must provide a work
plan for informal commission review. The work plan must outline the content of the
integrated resource plan to be developed by the utility and the method for assessing
potential resources.
Additionally, Section 480-90-238 (5) of the WAC states:
The work plan must outline the timing and extent of public participation.
OVERVIEW
This Work Plan outlines the process Avista will follow to complete its 2020 Natural Gas IRP by August
31, 2020. Avista uses a public process to obtain technical expertise and guidance throughout the planning
period via Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) meetings. The TAC will be providing input into
assumptions, scenarios, and modeling techniques.
PROCESS
The 2020 IRP process will be similar to that used to produce the previously published plan. Avista will use
SENDOUT® (a PC based linear programming model widely used to solve natural gas supply and
transportation optimization questions) to develop the risk adjusted least-cost resource mix for the 20 year
planning period.
This plan will continue to include demand analysis, demand side management and avoided cost
determination, existing and potential supply-side resource analysis, resource integration and alternative
sensitivities and scenario analysis.
Additionally, Avista intends to incorporate action plan items identified in the 2018 Natural Gas IRP
including more detailed demand analysis regarding use per customer, demand side management results and
possible price elastic responses to evolving economic conditions, an updated assessment of conservation
potential in our service territories, consideration of alternate forecasting methodologies, and the changing
landscape of natural gas supply (i.e. shale gas, Canadian exports, and US LNG exports) and its implications
to the planning process. Further details about Avista’s process for determining the risk adjusted least-cost
resource mix is shown in Exhibit 1.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 6
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

TIMELINE
The following is Avista’s TENTATIVE 2020 Natural Gas IRP timeline:
subject to change

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 7
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

EXHIBIT 1: AVISTA’S 2020 NATURAL GAS IRP MODELING PROCESS

Demand Forecast by Area and Class
Customer counts
Use per customer
Elasticity
Gas Prices
Basis differential
Volatility
Seasonal Spreads
Existing Supply-Side Resources
Costs
Operational Characteristics

Weather
20-year NOAA average by area plus
SENDOUT®
Optimization
Run

Identify when and where
deficiencies occur in the 20-
SENDOUT®
Optimization
Run

Solve for deficiencies and
incorporate those into the
least costs resource mix
for the 20-year period. Determine Base
Case Scenario
Avoided Cost
Determination Compile Data and Write
the IRP Document.
Key Considerations
Resource Cost
Peak vs. Base Load
Lead Time Requirements
Resource Usefulness
“Lumpiness” of Resource Options
Sensitivity/Scenario
Analysis
Customer
Counts
Use per
customer
DSM
Monte Carlo
Etc.
Gate Station
Analysis
Price Curve
Analysis
Planning
Standard Review
What's Best
Solver
Solve scenarios
based on demand-
side management
measures
Enter all Future Resource Options:
Supply-Side Demand-
Side
Demand-Side Resources
Assess DSM resource options
Integrate DSM in resource
portfolio through Dynamic DSM
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 8
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

APPENDIX 1.2: WASHINGTON PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IRP POLICIES AND
GUIDELINES – WAC 480-90-238
Rule Requirement Plan
Citation
WAC 480-90-238(4) Work plan filed no later than 12
months before next IRP due date.
Work plan submitted to the WUTC
on August 31, 2017, See
attachment to this Appendix 1.1.
WAC 480-90-238(4) Work plan outlines content of IRP. See work plan attached to this
Appendix 0.1.
WAC 480-90-238(4) Work plan outlines method for
assessing potential resources. (See
LRC analysis below)
See Appendix 1.1.
WAC 480-90-238(5) Work plan outlines timing and extent of
public participation.
See Appendix 1.1.
WAC 480-90-238(4) Integrated resource plan submitted
within two years of previous plan.
Last Integrated Resource Plan was
submitted on August 31, 2016
WAC 480-90-238(5) Commission issues notice of public
hearing after company files plan for
review.
TBD
WAC 480-90-238(5) Commission holds public hearing. TBD
WAC 480-90-238(2)(a) Plan describes mix of natural gas
supply resources.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(2)(a) Plan describes conservation supply. See Chapter 3 on Demand Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(2)(a) Plan addresses supply in terms of
current and future needs of utility and
ratepayers.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources and Chapter 6
Integrated Resource Portfolio
WAC 480-90-
238(2)(a)&(b)
Plan uses lowest reasonable cost
(LRC) analysis to select mix of
resources.
See Chapters 3 and 4 for Demand
and Supply Side Resources.
Chapters 6 and 7 details how
Demand and Supply come
together to select the least
cost/best risk portfolio for
ratepayers.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers resource
costs.
See Chapters 3 and 4 for Demand
and Supply Side Resources.
Chapters 6 and 7 details how
Demand and Supply come
together to select the least
cost/best risk portfolio for
ratepayers.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers market-
volatility risks.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers demand side
uncertainties.
See Chapter 2 Demand
Forecasting
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers resource
effect on system operation.
See Chapter 4 and Chapter 6
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers risks
imposed on ratepayers.
See Chapter 4 procurement plan
section. We seek to minimize but
cannot eliminate price risk for our
customers.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers public
policies regarding resource preference
See Chapter 2 demand scenarios
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 9
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

adopted by Washington state or
federal government.
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers cost of risks
associated with environmental effects
including emissions of carbon dioxide.
See Chapters 2 and 6 on demand
scenarios and Integrated Resource
Portfolio
WAC 480-90-238(2)(b) LRC analysis considers need for
security of supply.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources
Rule Requirement Plan Citation
WAC 480-90-238(2)(c) Plan defines conservation as any
reduction in natural gas consumption
that results from increases in the
efficiency of energy use or distribution.
See Chapter 3 on Demand Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(3)(a) Plan includes a range of forecasts of
future demand.
See Chapter 2 on Demand
Forecast
WAC 480-90-238(3)(a) Plan develops forecasts using
methods that examine the effect of
economic forces on the consumption
of natural gas.
See Chapter 2 on Demand
Forecast
WAC 480-90-238(3)(a) Plan develops forecasts using
methods that address changes in the
number, type and efficiency of natural
gas end-uses.
See Chapter 2 on Demand
Forecast
WAC 480-90-238(3)(b) Plan includes an assessment of
commercially available conservation,
including load management.
See Chapter 3 on Demand Side
Management including demand
response section.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(b) Plan includes an assessment of
currently employed and new policies
and programs needed to obtain the
conservation improvements.
See Chapter 3 and Appendix 3.1.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(c) Plan includes an assessment of
conventional and commercially
available nonconventional gas
supplies.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(3)(d) Plan includes an assessment of
opportunities for using company-
owned or contracted storage.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(3)(e) Plan includes an assessment of
pipeline transmission capability and
reliability and opportunities for
additional pipeline transmission
resources.
See Chapter 4 on Supply Side
Resources
WAC 480-90-238(3)(f) Plan includes a comparative evaluation
of the cost of natural gas purchasing
strategies, storage options, delivery
resources, and improvements in
conservation using a consistent
method to calculate cost-effectiveness.
See Chapter 3 on Demand Side
Resources and Chapter 4 on
Supply Side Resources
WAC 480-90-238(3)(g) Plan includes at least a 10 year long-
range planning horizon.
Our plan is a comprehensive 20
year plan.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(g) Demand forecasts and resource
evaluations are integrated into the long
range plan for resource acquisition.
Chapter 6 Integrated Resource
Portfolio details how demand and
supply come together to form the
least cost/best risk portfolio.
WAC 480-90-238(3)(h) Plan includes a two-year action plan
that implements the long range plan.
See Section 9 Action Plan
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 10
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

WAC 480-90-238(3)(i) Plan includes a progress report on the
implementation of the previously filed
plan.
See Section 9 Action Plan
WAC 480-90-238(5) Plan includes description of
consultation with commission staff.
(Description not required)
See Section 1 Introduction
WAC 480-90-238(5) Plan includes description of completion
of work plan. (Description not required)
See Appendix 1.1.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 11
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

APPENDIX 1.2: IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IRP POLICIES AND
GUIDELINES – ORDER NO. 2534
DESCRIPTION OF REQUIREMENT FULLFILLMENT OF REQUIREMENT
1 Purpose and Process. Each gas utility regulated by
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission with retail
sales of more than 10,000,000,000 cubic feet in a
calendar year (except gas utilities doing business
in Idaho that are regulated by contract with a
regulatory commission of another State) has the
responsibility to meet system demand at least cost
to the utility and its ratepayers. Therefore, an
‘‘integrated resource plan’’ shall be developed by
each gas utility subject to this rule.
Avista prepares a comprehensive 20 year
Integrated Resource Plan every two years.
Avista will be filing its 2018 IRP on or before
August 31, 2018.
2 Definition. Integrated resource planning.
‘‘Integrated resource planning’’ means planning by
the use of any standard, regulation, practice, or
policy to undertake a systematic comparison
between demand-side management measures and
the supply of gas by a gas utility to minimize life-
cycle costs of adequate and reliable utility services
to gas customers. Integrated resource planning
shall take into account necessary features for
system operation such as diversity, reliability,
dispatchability, and other factors of risk and shall
treat demand and supply to gas consumers on a
consistent and integrated basis.
Avista's IRP brings together dynamic
demand forecasts and matches them against
demand-side and supply-side resources in
order to evaluate the least cost/best risk
portfolio for its core customers. While the
primary focus has been to ensure customer's
needs are met under peak or design weather
conditions, this process also evaluates the
resource portfolio under normal/average
operating conditions. The IRP provides the
framework and methodology for evaluating
Avista's natural gas demand and resources.
3 Elements of Plan. Each gas utility shall submit to
the Commission on a biennial basis an integrated
resource plan that shall include:
2018 IRP to be filed on or before August 31,
2018. The last IRP was filed on August 31,
2016.
A range of forecasts of future gas demand in firm
and interruptible markets for each customer class
for one, five, and twenty years using methods that
examine the effect of economic forces on the
consumption of gas and that address changes in
the number, type and efficiency of gas end-uses.
See Chapter 2 - Demand Forecasts and
Appendix 2 et.al. for a detailed discussion of
how demand was forecasted for this IRP.
An assessment for each customer class of the
technically feasible improvements in the efficient
use of gas, including load management, as well as
the policies and programs needed to obtain the
efficiency improvements.
See Chapter 3 - Demand Side
Management and DSM Appendices 3 et.al.
for detailed information on the DSM potential
evaluated and selected for this IRP and the
operational implementation process.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 12
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

An analysis for each customer class of gas supply
options, including: (1) a projection of spot market
versus long-term purchases for both firm and
interruptible markets; (2) an evaluation of the
opportunities for using company-owned or
contracted storage or production; (3) an analysis of
prospects for company participation in a gas futures
market; and (4) an assessment of opportunities for
access to multiple pipeline suppliers or direct
purchases from producers.
See Chapter 4 - Supply-Side Resources for
details about the market, storage, and
pipeline transportation as well as other
resource options considered in this IRP. See
also the procurement plan section in this
same chapter for supply procurement
strategies.
A comparative evaluation of gas purchasing
options and improvements in the efficient use of
gas based on a consistent method for calculating
cost-effectiveness.
See Methodology section of Chapter 3 -
Demand-Side Resources where we
describe our process on how demand-side
and supply-side resources are compared on
par with each other in the SENDOUT®
model. Chapter 3 also includes how results
from the IRP are then utilized to create
operational business plans. Operational
implementation may differ from IRP results
due to modeling assumptions.
The integration of the demand forecast and
resource evaluations into a long-range (e.g.,
twenty-year) integrated resource plan describing
the strategies designed to meet current and future
needs at the lowest cost to the utility and its
ratepayers.
See Chapter 6 - Integrated Resource
Portfolio for details on how we model
demand and supply coming together to
provide the least cost/best risk portfolio of
resources.
A short-term (e.g., two-year) plan outlining the
specific actions to be taken by the utility in
implementing the integrated resource plan.
See Chapter 9 - Action Plan for actions to
be taken in implementing the IRP.
4 Relationship Between Plans. All plans following the
initial integrated resource plan shall include a
progress report that relates the new plan to the
previously filed plan.
Avista strives to meet at least bi-annually with
Staff and/or Commissioners to discuss the
state of the market, procurement planning
practices, and any other issues that may
impact resource needs or other analysis
within the IRP.
5 Plans to Be Considered in Rate Cases. The
integrated resource plan will be considered with
other available information to evaluate the
performance of the utility in rate proceedings before
the Commission.
We prepare and file our plan in part to
establish a public record of our plan.
6 Public Participation. In formulating its plan, the gas
utility must provide an opportunity for public
participation and comment and must provide
methods that will be available to the public of
validating predicted performance.
Avista held four Technical Advisory
Committee meetings beginning in January
and ending in April. See Chapter 1 -
Introduction for more detail about public
participation in the IRP process.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 13
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

7 Legal Effect of Plan. The plan constitutes the base
line against which the utility's performance will
ordinarily be measured. The requirement for
implementation of a plan does not mean that the
plan must be followed without deviation. The
requirement of implementation of a plan means that
a gas utility, having made an integrated resource
plan to provide adequate and reliable service to its
gas customers at the lowest system cost, may and
should deviate from that plan when presented with
responsible, reliable opportunities to further lower
its planned system cost not anticipated or identified
in existing or earlier plans and not undermining the
utility's reliability.
See section titled "Avista's Procurement
Plan" in Chapter 4 - Supply-Side
Resources. Among other details we discuss
plan revisions in response to changing
market conditions.
8 In order to encourage prudent planning and prudent
deviation from past planning when presented with
opportunities for improving upon a plan, a gas
utility's plan must be on file with the Commission
and available for public inspection. But the filing of
a plan does not constitute approval or disapproval
of the plan having the force and effect of law, and
deviation from the plan would not constitute
violation of the Commission's Orders or rules. The
prudence of a utility's plan and the utility's prudence
in following or not following a plan are matters that
may be considered in a general rate proceeding or
other proceedings in which those issues have been
noticed.
See also section titled "Alternate Supply-Side
Scenarios" in Chapter 6 - Integrated
Resource Portfolio where we discuss
different supply portfolios that are responsive
to changing assumptions about resource
alternatives.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 14
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

APPENDIX 1.2: OREGON PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IRP STANDARD AND
GUIDELINES – ORDER 07- 002
Guideline 1: Substantive Requirements
1.a.1 All resources must be evaluated on
a consistent and comparable basis.
All resource options considered, including demand-
side and supply-side are modeled in SENDOUT®
utilizing the same common general assumptions,
approach and methodology.
1.a.2 All known resources for meeting the
utility’s load should be considered,
including supply-side options which
focus on the generation, purchase
and transmission of power – or gas
purchases, transportation, and
storage – and demand-side options
which focus on conservation and
demand response.
Avista considered a range of resources including
demand-side management, distribution system
enhancements, capacity release recalls, interstate
pipeline transportation, interruptible customer supply,
and storage options including liquefied natural gas.
Chapter 3 and Appendix 3.1 documents Avista’s
demand-side management resources considered.
Chapter 4 and Appendix 6.3 documents supply-side
resources. Chapter 6 and 7 documents how Avista
developed and assessed each of these resources.

1.a.3 Utilities should compare different
resource fuel types, technologies,
lead times, in-service dates,
durations and locations in portfolio
risk modeling.
Avista considered various combinations of
technologies, lead times, in-service dates, durations,
and locations. Chapter 6 provides details about the
modeling methodology and results. Chapter 4
describes resource attributes and Appendix 6.3
summarizes the resources’ lead times, in-service
dates and locations.
1.a.4 Consistent assumptions and
methods should be used for
evaluation of all resources.
Appendix 6.2 documents general assumptions used in
Avista’s SENDOUT® modeling software. All portfolio
resources both demand and supply-side were
evaluated within SENDOUT® using the same sets of
inputs.
1.a.5 The after-tax marginal weighted-
average cost of capital (WACC)
should be used to discount all future
resource costs.
Avista applied its after-tax WACC of 4.36% to discount
all future resource costs. (See general assumptions at
Appendix 6.2)
1.b.1 Risk and uncertainty must be
considered. Electric utilities only
Not Applicable
1.b.2 Risk and uncertainty must be
considered. Natural gas utilities
should consider demand (peak,
swing and base-load), commodity
supply and price, transportation
availability and price, and costs to
comply with any regulation of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Risk and uncertainty are key considerations in long
term planning. In order to address risk and
uncertainties a wide range of sensitivity, scenario and
portfolio analysis is completed. A description of risk
associated with each scenario is included in Appendix
2.6.

One of the key risks is the “flat demand” risk as
described in Chapter 1. Avista performed 15
sensitivities on demand. From there five demand
scenarios were developed (Table 1.1) for SENDOUT®
modeling purposes. Monthly demand coefficients were
developed for base, heating demand while peak
demand was contemplated through modeling a
weather planning standard of the coldest day on
record (see heating degree day data in Appendix 2.4).

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 15
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

Avista evaluated several price forecasts and selected
high, medium and low price scenarios for modeling
purposes. The annual average prices are then
weighted by month using fundamental forecast data.
Additionally, the Henry Hub price forecasts are basis
adjusted using the same fundamental forecast data.

Four supply scenarios were also evaluated, see Table
4.3. These supply scenarios were combined with
demand scenarios in order to establish portfolios for
evaluation. Ultimately 9 portfolios were evaluated
(See Table 6.3 for the PVRR results).

Avista stochastic modeling techniques for price and
weather variables to analyze weather sensitivity and
to quantify the risk to customers under varying price
environments. While there continues to be some
uncertainty around GHG emission, Avista considered
GHG emissions regulatory compliance costs in
Appendix 3.2. As currently modeled, we include a
carbon adder to our price curve to capture the costs of
emission regulation.
Utilities should identify in their plans
any additional sources of risk and
uncertainty.
Avista evaluated additional risks and uncertainties.
Risks associated with the planning environment are
detailed in Chapter 0 Introduction. Avista also
analyzed demand risk which is detailed in Chapter 2.
Chapter 3 discusses the uncertainty around how much
DSM is achievable. Supply-side resource risks are
discussed in Chapter 4. Chapter 6 and 7 discusses
the variables modeled for scenario and stochastic risk
analysis.
1c The primary goal must be the
selection of a portfolio of resources
with the best combination of
expected costs and associated risks
and uncertainties for the utility and
its customers.
Avista evaluated cost/risk tradeoffs for each of the risk
analysis portfolios considered. See Chapter 5 and 6
plus supporting information in Appendix 2.6 for
Avista’s portfolio risk analysis and determination of the
preferred portfolio.
The planning horizon for analyzing
resource choices should be at least
20 years and account for end
effects. Utilities should consider all
costs with a reasonable likelihood of
being included in rates over the long
term, which extends beyond the
planning horizon and the life of the
resource.
Avista used a 20-year study period for portfolio
modeling. Avista contemplated possible costs beyond
the planning period that could affect rates including
end effects such as infrastructure decommission costs
and concluded there were no significant costs
reasonably likely to impact rates under different
resource selection scenarios.
Utilities should use present value of
revenue requirement (PVRR) as the
key cost metric. The plan should
include analysis of current and
estimated future costs of all long-
lived resources such as power
plants, gas storage facilities and
pipelines, as well as all short-lived
Avista’s SENDOUT® modeling software utilizes a
PVRR cost metric methodology applied to both long
and short-lived resources.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 16
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

resources such as gas supply and
short-term power purchases.
To address risk, the plan should
include at a minimum: 1) Two
measures of PVRR risk: one that
measures the variability of costs and
one that measures the severity of
bad outcomes. 2) Discussion of the
proposed use and impact on costs
and risks of physical and financial
hedging.
Avista, through its stochastic analysis, modeled 200
scenarios around varying gas price inputs via Monte
Carlo iterations developing a distribution of Total 20
year cost estimates utilizing SENDOUT®’s PVRR
methodology. Chapter 7 further describes this
analysis. The variability of costs is plotted against the
Expected Case while the scenarios beyond the 95th
percentile capture the severity of outcomes. Chapter 4
discusses Avista’s physical and financial hedging
methodology.
The utility should explain in its plan
how its resource choices
appropriately balance cost and risk.
Chapter 4, 5, 6, and 7 describe various specific
resource considerations and related risks, and
describes what criteria we used to determine what
resource combinations provide an appropriate balance
between cost and risk.
1d The plan must be consistent with
the long-run public interest as
expressed in Oregon and federal
energy policies.
Avista considered current and expected state and
federal energy policies in portfolio modeling. Chapter
6 describes the decision process used to derive
portfolios, which includes consideration of state
resource policy directions.
Guideline 2: Procedural Requirements
2a The public, including other utilities,
should be allowed significant
involvement in the preparation of the
IRP. Involvement includes
opportunities to contribute
information and ideas, as well as to
receive information. Parties must
have an opportunity to make
relevant inquiries of the utility
formulating the plan.
Chapter 1 provides an overview of the public process
and documents the details on public meetings held for
the 2018 IRP. Avista encourages participation in the
development of the plan, as each party brings a
unique perspective and the ability to exchange
information and ideas makes for a more robust plan.
While confidential information must
be protected, the utility should make
public, in its plan, any non-
confidential information that is
relevant to its resource evaluation
and action plan.
The entire IRP, as well as the TAC process, includes
all of the non-confidential information the company
used for portfolio evaluation and selection. Avista also
provided stakeholders with non-confidential
information to support public meeting discussions via
email. The document and appendices will be available
on the company website for viewing.
The utility must provide a draft IRP
for public review and comment prior
to filing a final plan with the
Commission.
Avista distributed a draft IRP document for external
review to all TAC members on July 2, 2018 and
requested comments by July 13, 2018.
Guideline 3: Plan Filing, Review and Updates
3a Utility must file an IRP within two
years of its previous IRP
acknowledgement order.
This Plan complies with this requirement as the 2016
Natural Gas IRP was acknowledged on March 21,
2017.
3b Utility must present the results of its
filed plan to the Commission at a
public meeting prior to the deadline
for written public comment.
Avista will work with Staff to fulfill this guideline
following filing of the IRP.
3c Commission staff and parties should
complete their comments and
Pending
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 17
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

recommendations within six months
of IRP filing
3d The Commission will consider
comments and recommendations on
a utility’s plan at a public meeting
before issuing an order on
acknowledgment. The Commission
may provide the utility an
opportunity to revise the plan before
issuing an acknowledgment order
Pending
3e The Commission may provide
direction to a utility regarding any
additional analyses or actions that
the utility should undertake in its
next IRP.
Pending
3f Each utility must submit an annual
update on its most recently
acknowledged plan. The update is
due on or before the
acknowledgment order anniversary
date. Once a utility anticipates a
significant deviation from its
acknowledged IRP, it must file an
update with the Commission, unless
the utility is within six months of
filing its next IRP. The utility must
summarize the update at a
Commission public meeting. The
utility may request acknowledgment
of changes in proposed actions
identified in an update
The annual update was submitted on March 1, 2018.
The filing was primarily an informational filing only as
Avista intends to file an updated IRP by August 31,
2018. In addition to the filing, Avista has provided
updates and comparisons to its 2016 IRP during its
2018 IRP TAC meetings held on January 25, 2018,
February 22, 2018, March 29, 2018, and May 10,
2018, in which Commission Staff and other TAC
members were present. In addition the Company
provided an update during its Natural Gas Quarterly
update meeting held on August 15, 2018. No request
for acknowledgement was required as no significant
deviation from the 2016 IRP was anticipated.
3g Unless the utility requests
acknowledgement of changes in
proposed actions, the annual update
is an informational filing that:
 Describes what actions the utility
has taken to implement the plan;
 Provides an assessment of what
has changed since the
acknowledgment order that
affects the action plan, including
changes in such factors as load,
expiration of resource contracts,
supply-side and demand-side
resource acquisitions, resource
costs, and transmission
availability; and
 Justifies any deviations from the
acknowledged action plan.
The updates described in 3f above explained changes
since acknowledgment of the 2016 IRP and an update
of emerging planning issues. The updates did not
request acknowledgement of any changes.

Guideline 4: Plan Components
At a minimum, the plan must include
the following
elements:

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 18
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

4a An explanation of how the utility met
each of the substantive and
procedural requirements.
This table summarizes guideline compliance by
providing an overview of how Avista met each of the
substantive and procedural requirements for a natural
gas IRP.
4b Analysis of high and low load growth
scenarios in addition to stochastic
load risk analysis with an
explanation of major assumptions.
Avista developed six demand growth forecasts for
scenario analysis. Stochastic variability of demand
was also captured in the risk analysis. Chapter 2
describes the demand forecast data and Chapter 7
provides the scenario and risk analysis results.
Appendix 5 details major assumptions.
4c For electric utilities only Not Applicable
4d A determination of the peaking,
swing and base-load gas supply and
associated transportation and
storage expected for each year of
the plan, given existing resources;
and identification of gas supplies
(peak, swing and base-load),
transportation and storage needed
to bridge the gap between expected
loads and resources.
Figures 6, 7, and 8 summarize graphically projected
annual peak day demand and the existing and
selected resources by year to meet demand for the
expected case. Appendix 6.1 and 6.2 summarizes the
peak day demand for the other demand scenarios.
4e Identification and estimated costs of
all supply-side and demand-side
resource options, taking into
account anticipated advances in
technology
Chapter 3 and Appendix 3.1 identify the demand-side
potential included in this IRP. Chapter 4 and 6 and
Appendix 6.3 identify the supply-side resources.
4f Analysis of measures the utility
intends to take to provide reliable
service, including cost-risk tradeoffs.
Chapter 6 and 7 discuss the modeling tools, customer
growth forecasting and cost-risk considerations used
to maintain and plan a reliable gas delivery system.
These Chapters also capture a summary of the
reliability analysis process demonstrated at the
second TAC meeting.
Chapter 4 discusses the diversified infrastructure and
multiple supply basin approach that acts to mitigate
certain reliability risks. Appendix 2.6 highlights key
risks associated with each portfolio.
4g Identification of key assumptions
about the future (e.g. fuel prices and
environmental compliance costs)
and alternative scenarios
considered.
Appendix 7 and Chapter 7 describe the key
assumptions and alternative scenarios used in this
IRP.
4h Construction of a representative set
of resource portfolios to test various
operating characteristics, resource
types, fuels and sources,
technologies, lead times, in-service
dates, durations and general
locations - system-wide or delivered
to a specific portion of the system.
This Plan documents the development and results for
portfolios evaluated in this IRP (see Table 4.3 for
supply scenarios considered).
4i Evaluation of the performance of the
candidate portfolios over the range
of identified risks and uncertainties.
We evaluated our candidate portfolio by performing
stochastic analysis using SENDOUT® varying price
under 200 different scenarios. Additionally, we test
the portfolio of options with the use of SENDOUT®
under deterministic scenarios where demand and
price vary. For resources selected, we assess other
risk factors such as varying lead times required and
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 19
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

potential for cost overruns outside of the amounts
included in the modeling assumptions.
4j Results of testing and rank ordering
of the portfolios by cost and risk
metric, and interpretation of those
results.
Avista’s four distinct geographic Oregon service
territories limit many resource option synergies which
inherently reduces available portfolio options.
Feasibility uncertainty, lead time variability and
uncertain cost escalation around certain resource
options also reduce reasonably viable options.
Chapter 4 describes resource options reviewed
including discussion on uncertainties in lead times and
costs as well as viability and resource availability (e.g.
LNG). Appendix 6.3 summarizes the potential
resource options identifying investment and variable
costs, asset availability and lead time requirements
while results of resources selected are identified in
Table 6.5 as well as graphically presented in Figure
6.18 and 6.19 for the Expected Case and Appendix
7.1 for the High Growth case.
4k Analysis of the uncertainties
associated with each portfolio
evaluated
See the responses to 1.b above.
4l Selection of a portfolio that
represents the best combination of
cost and risk for the utility and its
customers
Avista evaluated cost/risk tradeoffs for each of the risk
analysis portfolios considered. Chapter 6 and
Appendix 2.6 show the company’s portfolio risk
analysis, as well as the process and determination of
the preferred portfolio.
4m Identification and explanation of any
inconsistencies of the selected
portfolio with any state and federal
energy policies that may affect a
utility's plan and any barriers to
implementation
This IRP is presumed to have no inconsistencies.
4n An action plan with resource
activities the utility intends to
undertake over the next two to four
years to acquire the identified
resources, regardless of whether
the activity was acknowledged in a
previous IRP, with the key attributes
of each resource specified as in
portfolio testing.
Chapter 9 presents the IRP Action Plan with focus on
the following areas:
 Modeling
 Supply/capacity/distribution
 Forecasting
 Regulatory communication
 DSM
Guideline 5: Transmission
5 Portfolio analysis should include
costs to the utility for the fuel
transportation and electric
transmission required for each
resource being considered. In
addition, utilities should consider
fuel transportation and electric
transmission facilities as resource
options, taking into account their
value for making additional
purchases and sales, accessing
less costly resources in remote
Not applicable to Avista’s gas utility operations.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 20
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

locations, acquiring alternative fuel
supplies, and improving reliability.
Guideline 6: Conservation
6a Each utility should ensure that a
conservation potential study is
conducted periodically for its entire
service territory.
AEG performed a conservation potential assessment
study for our 2018 IRP. A discussion of the study is
included in Chapter 3. The full study document is in
Appendix 3.1. Avista incorporates a comprehensive
assessment of the potential for utility acquisition of
energy-efficiency resources into the regularly-
scheduled Integrated Resource Planning process.
6b To the extent that a utility controls
the level of funding for conservation
programs in its service territory, the
utility should include in its action
plan all best cost/risk portfolio
conservation resources for meeting
projected resource needs,
specifying annual savings targets.
A discussion on the treatment of conservation
programs is included in Chapter 3 while selection
methodology is documented in Chapter 6. The action
plan details conservation targets, if any, as developed
through the operational business planning process.
These targets are updated annually, with the most
current avoided costs. Given the challenge of the low
cost environment, current operational planning and
program evaluation is still underway and targets for
Oregon have not yet been set.
6c To the extent that an outside party
administers conservation programs
in a utility's service territory at a
level of funding that is beyond the
utility's control, the utility should: 1)
determine the amount of
conservation resources in the best
cost/ risk portfolio without regard to
any limits on funding of conservation
programs; and 2) identify the
preferred portfolio and action plan
consistent with the outside party's
projection of conservation
acquisition.
Not applicable. See the response for 6.b above.
Guideline 7: Demand Response
7 Plans should evaluate demand response resources,
including voluntary rate programs, on par with other
options for meeting energy, capacity, and transmission
needs (for electric utilities) or gas supply and
transportation needs (for natural gas utilities).
Avista has periodically evaluated
conceptual approaches to
meeting capacity constraints
using demand-response and
similar voluntary programs.
Technology, customer
characteristics and cost issues
are hurdles for developing
effective programs. See Chapter
3 Demand Response section for
more discussion.
Guideline 8: Environmental Costs
8 Utilities should include, in their base-case analyses, the
regulatory compliance costs they expect for CO2, NOx,
SO2, and Hg emissions. Utilities should analyze the
range of potential CO2 regulatory costs in Order No. 93-
695, from $0 - $40 (1990$). In addition, utilities should
perform sensitivity analysis on a range of reasonably
possible cost adders for NOx, SO2, and Hg, if applicable.
Avista’s current direct gas
distribution system infrastructure
does not result in any CO2, NOx,
SO2, or Hg emissions. Upstream
gas system infrastructure
(pipelines, storage facilities, and
gathering systems) do produce
CO2 emissions via compressors
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 21
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

used to pressurize and move gas
throughout the system. The
Environmental Externalities
discussion in Appendix 3.2
describes our analysis
performed. See also the
guidelines addendum reflecting
revised guidance for
environmental costs per Order
08-339.

Guideline 9: Direct Access Loads
9 An electric utility's load-resource balance should exclude
customer loads that are effectively committed to service
by an alternative electricity supplier.
Not applicable to Avista’s gas
utility operations.
Guideline 10: Multi-state utilities
10 Multi-state utilities should plan their generation and
transmission systems, or gas supply and delivery, on an
integrated-system basis that achieves a best cost/risk
portfolio for all their retail customers.
The 2018 IRP conforms to the
multi-state planning approach.
Guideline 11: Reliability
11 Electric utilities should analyze reliability within the risk
modeling of the actual portfolios being considered. Loss
of load probability, expected planning reserve margin,
and expected and worst-case unserved energy should
be determined by year for top-performing portfolios.
Natural gas utilities should analyze, on an integrated
basis, gas supply, transportation, and storage, along with
demand-side resources, to reliably meet peak, swing,
and base-load system requirements. Electric and natural
gas utility plans should demonstrate that the utility’s
chosen portfolio achieves its stated reliability, cost and
risk objectives.
Avista’s storage and transport
resources while planned around
meeting a peak day planning
standard, also provides
opportunities to capture off
season pricing while providing
system flexibility to meet swing
and base-load requirements.
Diversity in our transport options
enables at least dual fuel source
options in event of a transport
disruption. For areas with only
one fuel source option the cost of
duplicative infrastructure is not
feasible relative to the risk of
generally high reliability
infrastructure.

Guideline 12: Distributed Generation
12 Electric utilities should evaluate distributed
generation technologies on par with other supply-side
resources and should consider, and quantify where
possible, the additional benefits of distributed generation.
Not applicable to Avista’s gas
utility operations.
Guideline 13: Resource Acquisition
13a An electric utility should: identify its proposed acquisition
strategy for each resource in its action plan; Assess the
advantages and disadvantages of owning a resource
instead of purchasing power from another party; identify
any Benchmark Resources it plans to consider in
competitive bidding.
Not applicable to Avista’s gas
utility operations.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 22
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 1

13b Natural gas utilities should either describe in the IRP
their bidding practices for gas supply and transportation,
or provide a description of those practices following IRP
acknowledgment.
A discussion of Avista’s
procurement practices is detailed
in Chapter 4.
Guideline 8: Environmental Costs
a. BASE CASE AND OTHER COMPLIANCE SCENARIOS:
The utility should construct a base-case scenario to
reflect what it considers to be the most likely regulatory
compliance future for carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen
oxides, sulfur oxides, and mercury emissions. The utility
also should develop several compliance scenarios
ranging from the present CO2 regulatory level to the
upper reaches of credible proposals by governing
entities. Each compliance scenario should include a time
profile of CO2 compliance requirements. The utility
should identify whether the basis of those requirements,
or “costs”, would be CO2 taxes, a ban on certain types of
resources, or CO2 caps (with or without flexibility
mechanisms such as allowance or credit trading or a
safety valve). The analysis should recognize significant
and important upstream emissions that would likely have
a significant impact on its resource decisions. Each
compliance scenario should maintain logical consistency,
to the extent practicable, between the CO2 regulatory
requirements and other key inputs.
Avista’s current direct gas
distribution system infrastructure
does not result in any CO2, NOx,
SO2, or Hg emissions. Upstream
gas system infrastructure
(pipelines, storage facilities, and
gathering systems) do produce
CO2 emissions via compressors
used to pressurize and move gas
throughout the system.

The Environmental Externalities
discussion in Appendix 3.2
describes our process for
addressing these costs.

b. TESTING ALTERNATIVE PORTFOLIOS AGAINST THE
COMPLIANCE SCENARIOS: The utility should
estimate, under each of the compliance scenarios, the
present value of revenue requirement (PVRR) costs and
risk measures, over at least 20 years, for a set of
reasonable alternative portfolios from which the preferred
portfolio is selected. The utility should incorporate end-
effect considerations in the analyses to allow for
comparisons of portfolios containing resources with
economic or physical lives that extend beyond the
planning period. The utility should also modify projected
lifetimes as necessary to be consistent with the
compliance scenario under analysis. In addition, the
utility should include, if material, sensitivity analyses on a
range of reasonably possible regulatory futures for
nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and mercury to further
inform the preferred portfolio selection.
The Environmental Externalities
discussion in Appendix 3.2
describes our process for
addressing these costs.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 23
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.1: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CUSTOMER COUNT FORECAST
I. Service Area Economic Performance and Outlook

Avista’s core service area for natural gas includes Eastern Washington, Northern Idaho, and Southwest Oregon.
Smaller service islands are also located in rural South-Central Washington and Northeast Oregon. Our service area
is dominated by four metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA MSA (Spokane-
Stevens counties); the Coeur d’Alene, ID MSA (Kootenai County); the Lewiston-Clarkson, ID-WA MSA (Nez Perce-
Asotin counties); the Medford, OR MSA (Jackson County); and Grants Pass, OR MSA (Josephine County). These
five MSAs represent the primary demand for Avista’s natural gas and account for 75% of both customers (i.e.,
meters) and load. The remaining 25% of customers and load are spread over low density rural areas in all three
states.

Figure 1: Employment and Population Recovery, December 2007- June 2018

Data source: Employment from the BLS; population from the U.S. Census.

In the wake of the Great Recession, our service area recovered more slowly than the U.S. Although the U.S.
recession officially ended in June 2009 (dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research), our service area did
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
De
c
-
0
7
Ap
r
-
0
8
Au
g
-
0
8
De
c
-
0
8
Ap
r
-
0
9
Au
g
-
0
9
De
c
-
0
9
Ap
r
-
1
0
Au
g
-
1
0
De
c
-
1
0
Ap
r
-
1
1
Au
g
-
1
1
De
c
-
1
1
Ap
r
-
1
2
Au
g
-
1
2
De
c
-
1
2
Ap
r
-
1
3
Au
g
-
1
3
De
c
-
1
3
Ap
r
-
1
4
Au
g
-
1
4
De
c
-
1
4
Ap
r
-
1
5
Au
g
-
1
5
De
c
-
1
5
Ap
r
-
1
6
Au
g
-
1
6
De
c
-
1
6
Ap
r
-
1
7
Au
g
-
1
7
De
c
-
1
7
Ap
r
-
1
8
Ye
a
r
-ov
e
r
-Ye
a
r
,

S
a
m
e

M
o
n
t
h

S
e
a
s
o
n
a
l
l
y

A
d
j
.
Non-Farm Employment Growth (Dashed Shaded Box = Recession Period)
Avista WA-ID-OR MSAs U.S.
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
De
c
-
0
7
Ap
r
-
0
8
Au
g
-
0
8
De
c
-
0
8
Ap
r
-
0
9
Au
g
-
0
9
De
c
-
0
9
Ap
r
-
1
0
Au
g
-
1
0
De
c
-
1
0
Ap
r
-
1
1
Au
g
-
1
1
De
c
-
1
1
Ap
r
-
1
2
Au
g
-
1
2
De
c
-
1
2
Ap
r
-
1
3
Au
g
-
1
3
De
c
-
1
3
Ap
r
-
1
4
Au
g
-
1
4
De
c
-
1
4
Ap
r
-
1
5
Au
g
-
1
5
De
c
-
1
5
Ap
r
-
1
6
Au
g
-
1
6
De
c
-
1
6
Ap
r
-
1
7
Au
g
-
1
7
De
c
-
1
7
Ap
r
-
1
8
No
n
-Fa
r
m

E
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t

D
e
c

2
0
0
7
=
1
0
0
Non-Farm Employment Level (Dashed Shaded Box = Recession Period)
Avista WA-ID-OR MSAs U.S.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 24
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

not start a significant employment recovery until the second half of 2012 (Figure 1, top and bottom graph).
However, by the end of 2015, year-over-year employment growth exceeded U.S. growth and employment levels
returned to pre-recession levels. Due to strong employment growth in 2016 and 2017, the total percentage gain in
employment was roughly the same as the U.S. by the middle of 2018. As a result, service area population growth,
which is significantly influenced by in-migration through employment opportunities, continued to improve sense
the last IRP (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Avista MSA Annual Population Growth, 2005-2017

In 2011, Avista’s MSA population growth fell to around 0.6%, the lowest since the late 1980s, but has increased to
around 1.7% by 2017. This is important because population growth is a significant contributor to overall customer
growth.

Figure 3 shows that compared to forecasted customer growth in the 2016 IRP, actual average customer growth in
WA-ID over the 2016-2017 period is considerably higher. This reflects (1) stronger than expected population
growth and (2) Avista’s LEAP gas conversion program in WA. The structure of the LEAP program, which expires in
September 2019, was unknown at the time of the 2016 IRP. In contrast, OR’s actual growth rate is slightly lower
than forecasted over the same period. This reflects actual population growth being lower than the forecast
assumption in the 2016 IRP. Given that average annual population forecast over this period was close to actual
growth, reflects a lower than expected level of conversions by existing households. This can be seen in Figure 4
(bottom graph) which shows that since 2015, customer growth in the OR service area is nearly identical to
population growth. The presence of significant conversions would generate customer growth that exceeds
population growth, as can be seen in WA-ID (top graph).

Given the impact of the LEAP program and stronger than expected population growth since 2016 IRP, this IRP
shows an upward revision of approximately 16,750 customers in WA-ID by 2037. That is, because the 2018 IRP
forecast is starting from a higher than expected base, this generates a higher forecast out to 2037. In contrast,
OR’s forecast shows approximately 4,700 few forecasted customers in 2037 compared to 2016 IRP. This change
reflects lower forecasted population growth compared to the 2016 IRP, especially I the Medford and Klamath
service regions. System-wide, this is an upward revision of approximately 13,500 customers. Figure 5 and Table 1
show the change in the customer forecast by for the system and by class between the 2016 and 2018 IRPs.

1.6%
1.3%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%0.5%
0.8%
1.1%
1.3%
1.7%1.7%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
An
n
u
a
l

G
r
o
w
t
h
Population Growth in Avista WA-ID-OR MSAs
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 25
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Figure 3: Comparison of 2014-IRP Customer Growth Forecasts to Actuals, 2016-2017

Data source: Company data.

1.25%1.23%1.24%
2.05%
2.49%
2.27%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2016 2017 2016-2017 Average
WA-ID Forecasted vs. Actual Customer Growth Rates
WA-ID 2016 IRP Forecast WA-ID Actual
1.43%1.40%1.41%
1.13%
1.29%1.21%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2016 2017 2016-2017 Average
OR Forecasted vs. Actual Customer Growth Rates
OR 2016 IRP Forecast OR Actual
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 26
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Figure 4: Customer and Population Growth, 2005-2017
Data source: Company data.

0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OR Population Growth vs. Residential Customer Growth
OR Customer Growth OR Population Growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WA-ID Population Growth vs. Residential Customer Growth
WA-ID Customer Growth WA-ID Population Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 27
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Table 1: Change in Forecast between the 2016 IRP and 2018 IRP in 2037
WA-ID +16,174 +608 -32 +16,750
OR -4,755 +103 -2 -4,654
System +11,419 +711 -34 +12,906

Figure 5: Comparison IRP Forecasted Customer Growth in WA-ID and OR, 2017-2037
Data source: Company data.

In past IRPs, the modeling approach for the majority of commercial customers assumed that residential customer
growth is a driver of commercial customer growth. This is still the case for ID and OR. The use of residential
customers as forecast driver for commercial customers reflects the historically high correlation between
residential and commercial customer growth rates. However, because of the LEAP program, residential customers
is no longer the primary driver in the commercial forecast in WA. The LEAP program altered the historical
relationship between residential and commercial customer growth because the program was not offered to
commercial customers. As a result, population has replaced residential customers as the direct driver of
commercial customer forecast.

The forecast for system-wide industrial customers is lower compared to the 2016 IRP. Approximately 90% of
industrial customers are in WA-ID. Figure 6 (top graph) shows total system-wide firm industrial customers since
2004. Following a sharp drop over the 2004-2006 period, firm industrial customers have remained stable at
around 260. Separating out WA-ID and OR (middle graph), the number of firm customers in WA-ID continuously
fell over the 2004-2011 period. In contrast, OR customers increased over the 2004-2011 period (bottom graph).
However, after a period of stability during the 2011-2014 period, customer declined modestly. That is, over the
last five years there has been no appreciable change in firm industrial customers our service area. Therefore, in
contrast to the 2016 IRP which showed a flat industrial base, the current forecast shows a declining base.

300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
WA-ID-OR-Base 2016 IRP WA-ID-OR-Base 2018 IRP
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 28
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Figure 7: Industrial Customer Count, 2004-2017

Data source: Company data.

240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WA-ID-OR Firm Industrial Customers
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WA-ID Firm Industrial Customers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OR Firm Industrial Customers
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 29
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

II. IRP Forecast Process and Methodology

The customer forecasts are generated from forecasting models that are either regression models with ARIMA error
corrections or simple smoothing models. The ARIMA error correction models are estimated using SAS/ETS
software. The customer forecasts are used as input into Sendout® to generate the IRP load forecasts.
Population growth is the key driver for the residential and commercial customer forecasts. Other variables include
(1) seasonal dummy variables and (2) outlier dummy variables that control for extreme customer counts
associated with double billing, software conversions, and customer movements from one billing schedule to
another.

Population growth forecast is the key driver behind the customer forecast for residential schedules 101 in WA-ID
and 410 in OR. These two schedules represent the majority of customers and, therefore, drive overall residential
customer growth. Because of their size and growth potential, a multi-step forecasting process has been
developed for the Spokane-Spokane Valley, Coeur d’Alene, and Medford MSAs. The process for forecasting
population growth starts with an intermediate forecast horizon (seven years). This medium-term forecast is
typically used for the annual financial forecast. However, during IRP years, this medium-term forecast horizon is
augmented with third party forecasts that cover the next twenty years. Starting with Figure 8, the six-year
population forecast is a multi-step process that begins with a GDP forecast that drives the regional employment
forecast, which in turn, drives a six year population forecast.

Figure 8: Forecasting Population Growth, 2018-2024

The forecasting models for regional employment growth are:

[1] 𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾= 𝜗0 + 𝜗1𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜗2𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦−1,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜗3𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦−2,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐾𝐶,1998−2000=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐻𝐵,2005−2007=1 + 𝜖𝑡,𝑦

[2] 𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇= 𝛿0 + 𝛿1𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦,𝑈𝑆+ 𝛿2𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦−1,𝑈𝑆+ 𝛿3𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦−2,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷1994=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷2009=1 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐻𝐵,2005−2007=1 + 𝜖𝑡,𝑦

[3] 𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑂𝑆= 𝜙0 + 𝜙1𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜙2𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦−1,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜙3𝐺𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑦−2,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐻𝐵,2004−2005=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (1,0,0)(0,0,0)12

SPK is Spokane, WA (Spokane MSA), KOOT is Kootenai, ID (Coeur d’Alene MSA), and JACK+JOS is for the
combination of Jackson County, OR (Medford MSA) and Josephine County, OR (Grants Pass MSA). GEMPy is
employment growth in year y, GGDPy,US is U.S. real GDP growth in year y. DKC is a dummy variable for the collapse
of Kaiser Aluminum in Spokane, and DHB, is a dummy for the housing bubble, specific to each region. The average
GDP forecasts are used in the estimated model to generate five-year employment growth forecasts. The
employment forecasts are then averaged with IHS’s forecasts for the same counties so that:

[4] 𝐹𝐴𝑣𝑔(𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾) = 𝐹(𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾)+𝐹(𝐺𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐸𝑀𝑃)𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾)
2

Average GDP Growth
Forecasts:
IMF, FOMC,
Bloomberg, etc.
Average forecasts
out 6-yrs.
Growth Model:
Model links year y, y-1,
and y-2 GDP growth to
year y regional
employment growth.
Forecast out 7-yrs.
Averaged with GI

Model links regional, U.S., and CA
year y-1 employment growth to year
y county population growth.
Forecast out 7-yrs for Spokane, WA;
Kootenai, ID; and
Jackson+Josephine, OR.
Averaged with IHS forecasts in ID
and OR and OFM forecasts in WA.
Growth rates used to generate
population forecasts for customer
forecasts for residential schedules 1,
EMP GDP
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 30
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

[5] 𝐹𝐴𝑣𝑔(𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇) = 𝐹(𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇 )+𝐹(𝐺𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇)
2

[6] 𝐹𝐴𝑣𝑔(𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾) = 𝐹(𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾 )+𝐹(𝐺𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾)
2

Averaging reduces the systematic errors of a single-source forecast. The averages [8.4] through [8.6] are used to
generate the population growth forecasts, which are described next.

The forecasting models for regional population growth are:

[7] 𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾= 𝜅0 + 𝜅1𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,𝑆𝑃𝐾+ 𝜅2𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−2,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷2001=1+𝜖𝑡,𝑦

[8] 𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇= 𝛼0 + 𝛼1𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇+ 𝛼2𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−2,𝑈𝑆+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷1994=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷2002=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐻𝐵,2007↑=1 + 𝜖𝑡,𝑦

[9] 𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑂𝑆= 𝜓0 + 𝜓1𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑜𝑠+ 𝜓2𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−2,𝐶𝐴+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷1991=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐻𝐵,2004−2006=1 + 𝜖𝑡,𝑦

D2001=1 and D1991=1 are a dummy variables for recession impacts. GEMPy-1,US is U.S. employment growth in year y-1
and GEMPy-2, and CA is California Employment growth in year y-1. Because of its close proximity to CA, CA
employment growth is better predictor of Jackson, OR employment growth than U.S. growth. The averages [8.4]
through [8.6] are used in [7] through [9] to generate population growth forecasts. These forecasts are combined
with IHS’s forecasts for Kootenai, ID; Jackson, OR; Josephine, OR, and the Office for Financial Management (OFM)
for Spokane, WA in the form of a simple average:

[10] 𝐹𝐴𝑣𝑔(𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾) = 𝐹(𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾)+𝐹(𝐺𝑂𝐹𝑀𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾)
2

[11] 𝐹𝐴𝑣𝑔(𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇) = 𝐹(𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇 )+𝐹(𝐺𝐼𝐻𝑆𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇)
2

[12] 𝐹𝐴𝑣𝑔(𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑂𝑆) = 𝐹(𝐺𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑂𝑆 )+𝐹(𝐺𝐼𝐻𝑆𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑂𝑆)
2

Here, FAvg(GPOPy) is used to forecast population to forecast residential customers in schedules 101 (WA-ID) and
410 (OR) for the Spokane, Kootenai, and Jackson+Josephine areas. In the case of Spokane, OFM forecasts are used
because the IHS’s forecasts exhibit a level and time-path that is inconsistent with recent population behavior. The
population growth forecasts for the Douglas (Roseburg), Klamath (Klamath Falls); and Union (La Grande) counties
come directly from IHS. Since all forecasted growth rates are annualized, they are converted to monthly rates as
FAvg(GPOPt,y)= [1+ FAvg(GPOPy)]1/12 – 1. By way of example, the following is regression model for residential 101
customers for the Spokane region:

𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴101.𝑟= 𝛼0 + 𝜏𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾+𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007↑=1 + 𝛾𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑃𝑇𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2005=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2010=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2012=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2015=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2016=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2018=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (11,1,0)(0,0,0)12

Where:

POPt,y,SPK =  is the coefficient to be estimated and POPt,y,SPK is the interpolated population level in month t, in
year y, for Spokane. The monthly interpolation of historical data assumes that between years, population
accumulates following the standard population growth model: POPy,SPK = POPy-1,SPKer.

SDDt,y = SD is a vector of seasonal dummy (SD) coefficients to be estimated and Dt,y is a vector monthly
seasonal dummies to account of customer seasonality. Dt,y = 1 for the relevant month.

SCDJan 2007↑=1 + RampTJan 2007 = structural change (SC) and trend (Ramp) coefficients and variables that control
for the sharp fall in residential customer growth that cannot be fully accounted for by the population
variable. This reflects the impact of the housing bubble collapse and the subsequent Great Recession. DJan
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 31
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

2007↑=1 takes a value of 1 over both the estimation and forecast period starting in January 2007, and TJan 2007 is
a linear time-trend that starts in January 2007 and continues over the estimation and forecast period.

OLDOct 2005=1 = OL outlier (OL) coefficient to be estimated and D is a dummy that equals 1 for August 2010.
There are three additional outlier dummies that follow August 2010.

ARIMAt,y(11,1,0)(0,0,0)12 = is the error correction applied to the model’s initial error structure. This term
follows the following from ARIMAt,y (p,d,q)(pk,dk,qk)k. The term p is the autoregressive (AR) order, d is the
differencing order, and q is the moving average (MA) order. The term pk is the order of seasonal AR terms, dk
is the order of seasonal differencing, and qk is the seasonal order of MA terms. The seasonal values are
related to “k,” which is the frequency of the data. With the current data set, k = 12.

The customer forecast is generated by inputting forecasted values of POPt,y,SPK into the model estimated with
historical data. All customer forecast equations are shown in the last section.

The above describes the population forecast for the annual six-year forecast. For IRP years, the customer forecast
needs to be extended out an additional 15 years beyond medium term forecast. This is done using the IHS
population forecast for Kootenai, Jackson+Josephine, Douglas, Klamath, and Union counties. That is, IHS is the sole
source for forecasted population growth beyond the seven-year time horizon generated by [10] through [12]. In
the case of Spokane County, the forecast from Washington’s Office of Financial Management (OFM) is instead of
IHS’s. The choice to use OFM’s forecasts reflects the unusually sharp changes that have occurred in the IHS
forecasts for the Spokane MSA over a short period of time. Figure 9 shows how much these forecasts have
changed in level and shape since June 2012. From the October 2015 to March 2017 forecasts, there was as
significant changes for the 2015-2019 period. There is no clear rational for why IHS’s forecasts changed so
significantly between 2012 and 2017.

Figure 9: Spokane MSA Forecast Comparison

Data source: IHS, Washington State of Office of Financial Management, and U.S. Census.

0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
IHS June 2012 Forecast IHS October 2015 Forecast IHS March 2016 Forecast
Actual OFM 2017 IHS March 2017 Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 32
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Figure 10: Annual Customer Growth for the Three Rate Classes, 2005-2017

Data source: Company data.

Figure 10 demonstrates that residential and commercial growth rates are highly correlated and maintain similar
levels over the long-run—over the period shown, residential and commercial averaged about 1.6% and 1.1%,
respectively. This growth is slightly higher than population growth because of the housing boom and existing
households converting to natural gas. However, by 2009, with the collapse of the housing bubble and increased
natural gas saturation, customer growth moved closer to population growth.

In contrast, the behavior of Industrial customer growth looks quite different. Customer growth is both lower and
more volatile. The average growth rate since 2005 is -1.0%, reflecting a trend of nearly flat or slowly declining
customers, depending on the jurisdiction. In addition, the standard deviation of year-over-year growth is 1.9%
compared to 0.9% for residential and 0.7% for commercial growth. The current IRP forecast reflects this historical
trend of weak growth. Some energy industry analysts believe the U.S.’s increased supply of natural gas and oil will
attract industrial production back from overseas locations. However, in this IRP, we do not assume plentiful
energy supplies in the U.S. will alter long-run trends in industrial customer growth in our service area.

Establishing High-Low Cases for IRP Customer Forecast

The customer forecasts for this IRP include high and low cases that set the expected bounds around the base-case.
Table 2 shows the base, low, and high customer forecasts along with the underlying population growth
assumption. The underlying population forecast is the primary driver for each of the three cases.

Table 2: Alternative Growth Cases, 2018-2037
WA-ID:
WA-ID Customers 0.9% 1.3% 1.6%
WA Population 0.5% 0.8% 1.1%
ID Population 1.1% 1.6% 2.1%

OR:
OR Customers 0.6% 0.9% 1.3%
OR Population 0.5% 0.8% 1.1%
System:
System Customers 0.8% 1.2% 1.5%
System Population 0.5% 0.9% 1.2%

-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Residential Commercial Industrial
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 33
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

III. IRP Customer Forecast Equations

1. WA residential customer forecast models:

[1] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴101.𝑟= 𝛼0 + 𝜏𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾+𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007↑=1 + 𝛾𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑃𝑇𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2005=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2010=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2012=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2016=1 +
𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (11,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[1] Model notes:
1. SC dummy and ramping time trend control for a change in the time-path of customer growth staring in January 2007.

[2] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴102.𝑟= {
1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟,𝑦𝑐
𝐶𝐶𝑎𝑝 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑦𝑐+𝑗 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑗 = 1,…,23

[2] Model notes:
1. WA schedule 102 customers are schedule 101 customers that have been moved to a new low-income schedule. The schedule started in
October 2015, so there is insufficient data for a more complicated model. The schedule is currently capped at 300 customers, so the forecast is
set at this value following the current year of the forecast. It is possible this cap will increase in the future. The new cap level will be subject to
negotiation with regulators.

[3] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴111.𝑟= 𝛼0 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2011↑=1 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2013↑=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2006=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2015=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2016=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2016=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (1,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[3] Model notes:
1. Error structure white noise but not normally distributed.
2. SC dummies control for a step-up in customers starting in October 2011 and October 2013.

2. ID residential customer forecast models:

[4] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷101.𝑟= 𝛽0 + 𝜏𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝑂𝑂𝑇+𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007↑=1 + 𝛾𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑃𝑇𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑦 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑙 2005=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2005=1+𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑛 2006=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2006=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑛 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2007=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2009=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝𝑡 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (2,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[4] Model notes:
1. SC dummy and ramping time trend control for a change in the time-path of customer growth staring in January 2007.

[5] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷111.𝑟= 𝛽0+𝛾𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑃𝑇𝐷𝑒𝑐 2011 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2008↑=1+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2011↑=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2008=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2010=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2015=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (9,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[5] Model notes:
1. SC dummies control for a step-up in customers starting in December 2008 and December 2011.
2. Ramping time trend controls for no customer growth since 2012.

3. WA commercial customer forecast models:

[6] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴101.𝑐= 𝛼0 + 𝛼1𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝑆𝑃𝐾+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2013=1 +
+𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2013=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2016=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (1,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[6] Model notes:
1. In the June 2017 forecast, Ct,y,WA101.r (residential customers from residential schedule 101) was replaced with POP for Spokane. This was done
to account for a new hookup tariff for residential gas customers in WA’s LEAP program. This tariff is more generous than the previous long-
standing tariff. In addition, any savings in the hookup process could be passed on to the customer for equipment purchases or replacement.
Since this tariff change excluded commercial and industrial customers, this significantly accelerated residential hookups but not commercial
hookups. As a result, this historical relationship between residential and commercial customer growth has been altered.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 34
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

[7] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴111.𝑐= 𝛼0 + 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2016↑=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2013=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2013=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2015=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (5,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[7] Model notes:
1. SC dummy controls for a step-up in customers starting in April 2016.
2. Distribution of error terms not quite normal; however, they do pass the white-noise test.

4. ID commercial customer forecast models:

[8] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷101.𝑐= 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷101.𝑟+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2005↑=1+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2006↑=1+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2007↑=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑛 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2008=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2014=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2015=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (10,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[8] Model notes:
1. Ct,y,ID101.r are residential customers from residential schedule 101. They are being used as a forecast driver because of the historical positive
correlation between residential and commercial customer growth. See Tables 5.1 and 5.2.
2. SC dummies control for a step-up in customers in November 2005, September 2006, and November 2007.

[9] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷111.𝑐= 𝛽0 +𝛾𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑃𝑇𝐽𝑎𝑛 2012 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2008↑=1+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2011↑=1+𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2012↑=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2005=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2009=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2011=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2015=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (6,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[9] Model notes:
1. SC dummies control for a large step-up in customers starting in November 2008 and November 2011.
2. Ramping time trend and SC dummy starting in Jan 2012 control for a slowdown in customer growth.

5. WA industrial customer forecasts models:

[10] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴101.𝑖= 𝛼0 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2008↑=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2013↑=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2006=1+𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2007=1 +
+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2013=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2014=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2015=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2016=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2017=1 +
𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (7,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[10] Model notes:
1. SC dummies control for a step-down in customers starting in April 2008 and October 2013.

[11] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑊𝐴111.𝑖= 𝛼0 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2005=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2006=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2006=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2007=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2008=1
+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑛 2014=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2015=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2016=1+𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (2,0,0)(0,0,0)12

[11] Model notes:
1. Error structure is white noise, but not normally distributed.

6. ID industrial customer forecast models:

[12] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷101.𝑖= 𝛽0 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2010↑=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2011↑=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2011↑=1+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑛 2014↑=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2005=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2005=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2005=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2006=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2007=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2008=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2011=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2011=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑙 2014=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2015=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2015=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2016=1 +
𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (4,0,0)(0,0,0)12

[12] Model notes:
1. SC dummies control for step-downs in customers starting in December 2010, November 2011, and December 2011; June 2014 controls for a
step-up in customers.

[13] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷111.𝑖= 1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[13] Model notes:
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 35
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

1. Period of restriction reflects the restriction on the UPC model for this schedule.
2. Customer count stabilized in 2012; customer count fluctuates between 31 and 34 without any clear trend or seasonality.

[14] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐼𝐷112.𝑖= 1
12∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[14] Model notes:
1. Customer count tends to increase in steps following prolonged periods of stability. No clear seasonality present.

7. Medford, OR forecasting models:

The forecasting models for the Medford region (Jackson County) are given below for the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors:

Residential Sector, Customers:
[15] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷410.𝑟= 𝛼0 + 𝛼1𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝐽𝐴𝐶𝐾+𝐽𝑂𝑆+𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝛾𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑃𝑇𝐽𝑎𝑛 2008 + 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2008↑ =1 +
𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2004↑ =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2004 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2005 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015 =1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (7,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[15] Model notes:
1. SC dummy and ramping time trend control for a change in the time-path of customer growth staring in January 2008.
2. POP is Jackson plus Josephine counties.

Commercial Sector, Customers:
[16] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷420.𝑐= 𝛼0 +𝛼1𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷410.𝑟 + 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2004=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝 2005 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2009 =1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2016 =1 +𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (7,1,0)(1,0,0)12

[16] Model notes:
1. Ct,y,MED410.r are residential customers from residential schedule 410. They are being used as a forecast driver because of the historical positive
correlation between residential and commercial customer growth. However, in the future, POP may become a better driver. Model results
with POP are fairly close to model shown above.

[17] 𝐶𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷424.𝑐= 𝐶𝑦−1 + (𝛼0̂ +𝛼1̂∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦)

[17] Model notes:
1. This model reflects a recommendation by Oregon staff in the 2016 rate case to include employment as an economic driver for schedule 424
commercial customers. The estimated equation in parenthesis reflects the regression estimated of ∆𝐶𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷424.𝑐=
𝛼0 +𝛼1∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦+ 𝜀𝑡 using annual customer data since 2004. Annual data is used to smooth over the sometimes volatile changes
in the monthly customer number. In addition, customer increases and decreases around the long-run trend tend to occur in steps. The
combination of steps and month-to-month volatility creates significant economic problems when trying to model around the monthly data. For
example, even with intervention variables, tests for error normality always indicated non-normal error terms with the use of monthly data.
2. ∆𝐶𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷424.𝑐 is the change in customers in year y (customer change between year y and y-1) and ∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦 is the change in total
non-farm employment in Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, and Douglas counties in year y-1 (employment change between year y-1 and y-2). Staff
originally suggested lagged total employment for Oregon, but the correlation between schedule 424 customers and employment for the three
county area is higher. The forecasted employment values for Jackson+Josephine County are derived from the employment growth forecasts
used in the Jackson+Josephine County population forecast. The forecasts for Douglas and Klamath counties come from IHS. In IRP years, IHS
forecasts for Jackson and Josephine counties will be used for the out years.
3. The annual forecast value for each year, F(∙), is assumed to hold for each month of that year. That is: 𝐹(𝐶𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷424.𝑐) = 𝐹(𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷424.𝑐).
Given the step-like behavior of the monthly series, this is a reasonable assumption.
4. The forecast and regressions for this schedule can be found in the Excel file folder “OR MED-ROS-KLM Sch 424c Cus” for the June 2017
forecast.

[18] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷444.𝑐= 1 𝑖𝑓 (𝑇𝐻𝑀/𝐶𝑡,𝑦)𝑀𝐸𝐷,444.𝑐> 0

[18] Model notes:
1. There is typically only one customer served by this schedule. Therefore, the customer forecast is automatically set to one whenever the load
forecast is greater than zero. The June 2017 customer forecast was used and repeated out to monthly until December 2040.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 36
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Industrial Sector, Customers:

[19] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷420.𝑖= 1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[19] Model notes:
1. Data starts November 2006. Excluding outliers in November 2006, November 2009, and February 2011, the customer count fluctuates
between 9 and 16 without any clear trend or seasonality. Changes in the customer count occur in steps between prolonged periods of
stability.

[20] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑀𝐸𝐷424.𝑖=1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[20] Model notes:
1. Data starts January 2009. Excluding a January 2009 outlier, the customer count fluctuates between 1 and 3 without any clear trend or
seasonality. Customer count is most frequently reported as 2; however, starting in March 2018, the customer count fell to one.

8. Roseburg, OR forecasting models:

The forecasting models for the Roseburg region (Douglas County) are given below for the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors:
Residential Sector, Customers:

[21] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆410.𝑟= 𝜑0+𝜑1𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝐷𝑂𝑈𝐺𝐿𝐴𝑆+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑙 2004 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2004 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2004 =1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2005 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2005 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2006 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2007 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2008 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2009 =1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2012 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2014 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015 =1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (12,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[21] Model notes:
1. POP is population for Douglas County, OR.

Commercial Sector, Customers:

[22] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆420.𝑐= 𝜑0 + 𝜑1𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝐷𝑂𝑈𝐺𝐿𝐴𝑆+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑆𝐶𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2004↑ =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2004 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2005 =1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2005 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2006 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2008 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2008 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2009=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑦 2016=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (9,1,0)(1,0,0)12

[22] Model notes:
1. Model does not use schedule 410 customers as driver. This reflects the lack of correlation between residential 410 and commercial 420
customer growth. However, POP was added for the 2018 gas IRP and it is significant at the 10% level
2. The lack of correlation noted in Point 1 could reflect Roseburg’s position between larger cities that offer a range of commercial activities.
Competition from these cities may be inhibiting commercial growth in Roseburg.
3. SC dummy controls for a significant step-up in customers starting in December 2004.

[23] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆424.𝑐= 𝐶𝑦−1 + (𝜑0̂ +𝜑1̂∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦)

[23] Model notes:
1. This model reflects a recommendation by Oregon staff in the 2016 rate case to include employment as an economic driver for schedule 424
commercial customers. The estimated equation in parenthesis reflects the regression estimated of ∆𝐶𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆424.𝑐= 𝛼0 +
𝛼1∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦+ 𝜀𝑡 using annual customer data since 2004. Annual data is used to smooth over the sometimes volatile changes in the
monthly customer number. In addition, customer increases and decreases around the long-run trend tend to occur in steps. The combination
of steps and month-to-month volatility creates significant economic problems when trying to model around the monthly data. For example,
even with intervention variables, tests for error normality always indicated non-normal error terms with the use of monthly data.
2. ∆𝐶𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆424.𝑐 is the change in customers in year y (customer change between year y and y-1) and ∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦 is the change in total non-
farm employment in Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, and Douglas counties in year y-1 (employment change between year y-1 and y-2). Staff
originally suggested lagged total employment for Oregon, but the correlation between schedule 424 customers and employment for the three
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 37
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

county area is higher. The forecasted employment values for Jackson+Josephine County are derived from the employment growth forecasts
used in the Jackson+Josephine County population forecast. The forecasts for Douglas and Klamath counties come from IHS. In IRP years, IHS
forecasts for Jackson and Josephine counties will be used for the out years.
3. The annual forecast value for each year, F(∙), is assumed to hold for each month of that year. That is: 𝐹(𝐶𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆424.𝑐) = 𝐹(𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆424.𝑐).
Given the step-like behavior of the monthly series, this is a reasonable assumption.
4. The forecast and regressions for this schedule can be found in the Excel file folder “OR MED-ROS-KLM Sch 424c Cus” for the June 2017
forecast.

Industrial Sector, Customers:

[24] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆420.𝑖= 1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[24] Model notes:
1. Data starts September 2009. Excluding a February 2015 outlier, the customer count fluctuates between 1 and 2 without any clear trend or
seasonality.
2. Due to the Compass software conversion, February 2015 is excluded from the historical data. The conversion resulted in a double counting
of customers in February 2015. Therefore, including this month leads to a significant over-forecast of customers.

[25] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝑅𝑂𝑆424.𝑖= 1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[25] Model notes:
1. Schedule appears to have died. No customers are currently being reported.

9. Klamath Falls, OR forecasting models:

The forecasting models for the Klamath Falls region (Klamath County) are given below for the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors:
Residential Sector, Customers:

[26] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀410.𝑟= 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝐴𝑀𝐴𝑇𝐻+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚 +𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2004=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015 =1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑝𝑟 2015 =1 +
𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (7,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[26] Model notes:
1. POP is for Klamath County, OR.

Commercial Sector, Customers:

[27] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀420.𝑐= 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀410.𝑟+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2006=1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (11,1,0)(2,0,0)12

[27] Model notes:
1. Ct,y,KLM410.r are residential customers from residential schedule 410. They are being used as a forecast driver because of the historical positive
correlation between residential and commercial customer growth. See Tables 5.1 and 5.2.

[28] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀424.𝑐= 𝐶𝑦−1 + (𝛽0̂+𝛽1̂∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦)

[28] Model notes:
1. This model reflects a recommendation by Oregon staff in the 2016 rate case to include employment as an economic driver for schedule 424
commercial customers. The estimated equation in parenthesis reflects the regression estimated of ∆𝐶𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀424.𝑐=
𝛼0 +𝛼1∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦+ 𝜀𝑡 using annual customer data since 2004. Annual data is used to smooth over the sometimes volatile changes
in the monthly customer number. In addition, customer increases and decreases around the long-run trend tend to occur in steps. The
combination of steps and month-to-month volatility creates significant economic problems when trying to model around the monthly data. For
example, even with intervention variables, tests for error normality always indicated non-normal error terms with the use of monthly data.
2. ∆𝐶𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀424.𝑐 is the change in customers in year y (customer change between year y and y-1) and ∆𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑦−1,4𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑦 is the change in total
non-farm employment in Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, and Douglas counties in year y-1 (employment change between year y-1 and y-2). Staff
originally suggested lagged total employment for Oregon, but the correlation between schedule 424 customers and employment for the three
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 38
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

county area is higher. The forecasted employment values for Jackson+Josephine County are derived from the employment growth forecasts
used in the Jackson+Josephine County population forecast. The forecasts for Douglas and Klamath counties come from IHS. In IRP years, IHS
forecasts for Jackson and Josephine counties will be used for the out years.
3. The annual forecast value for each year, F(∙), is assumed to hold for each month of that year. That is: 𝐹(𝐶𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀424.𝑐) = 𝐹(𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀424.𝑐).
Given the step-like behavior of the monthly series, this is a reasonable assumption.
4. The forecast and regressions for this schedule can be found in the Excel file folder “OR MED-ROS-KLM Sch 424c Cus” for the June 2017
forecast.

Industrial Sector, Customers:

[29] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀420.𝑖= 1
12 ∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[29] Model notes:
1. Data starts December 2006. The customer count fluctuates between 4 and 9 without any clear trend or seasonality.

[30] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐾𝐿𝑀424.𝑖= 1
12∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[30] Model notes:
1. Data starts April 2009. The customer count fluctuates between 1 and 4 without any clear trend or seasonality.

10. La Grande, OR forecasting models:

The forecasting models for the La Grande region (Union County) are given below for the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors:
Residential Sector, Customers:

[31] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐿𝑎𝐺410.𝑟= 𝜃0 + 𝜃1𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑡,𝑦,𝑈𝑁𝐼𝑂𝑁+ 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2004=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑙 2006=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2009=1+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2015=1 +
𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (9,1,0)(1,0,0)12

[31] Model notes:
1. POP is population for Union County, OR.

Commercial Sector, Customers:

[32] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐿𝑎𝐺420.𝑐= 𝜃0 + 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑢𝑙 2005 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2007 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2008 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑟 2011 =1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑀𝑎𝑦 2011 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2016 =1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (12,1,0)(0,0,0)12

[32] Model notes:
1. Ct,y,LaG410.r, residential customers from residential schedule 410, are no longer used as a forecast driver. The estimated coefficient on Ct,y,LaG410.r
was no longer statistically significant and its sign flips between positive and negative, depending on the form of the model. POP for union
county was also tried as a driver, but had the same issues as Ct,y,LaG410.r.

[33] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐿𝑎𝐺424.𝑐= 1
12∑𝐶𝑡−𝑗12𝑗=1

[33] Model notes:
1. Data starts January 2007. The customer count fluctuates between 2 and 4 without any clear trend or seasonality. Changes in the customer
count appear as steps after prolonged periods of stability.

[34] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐿𝑎𝐺444.𝑐= 1
𝑁∑(𝐶𝑡,𝑦−𝑗)𝑁𝑗=1 𝑖𝑓 (𝑇𝐻𝑀/𝐶𝑡,𝑦)𝐿𝑎𝑔,444.𝑐≥ 0

[34] Model notes:
1. Data starts September 2011. The customer forecast is a derivative of the schedule’s load forecast. The June 2017 customer forecast was
used and repeated out to monthly until December 2040.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 39
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

Industrial Sector, Customers:

[35] 𝐶𝑡,𝑦,𝐿𝑎𝐺444.𝑖= 𝜃0 + 𝝎𝑺𝑫𝑫𝒕,𝒚+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2007=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑆𝑒𝑝𝑡 2008 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2009 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2010 =1 +
+ 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2010=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2011 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐴𝑢𝑔 2012 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑁𝑜𝑣 2012 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐷𝑒𝑐 2012=1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2013 =1 +
𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐹𝑒𝑏 2013 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝐽𝑎𝑛 2014 =1 + 𝜔𝑂𝐿𝐷𝑂𝑐𝑡 2015 =1 + 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴𝜖𝑡,𝑦 (10,0,0)(0,0,0)12

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 40
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-17 147,093 14,591 130 148,027 14,683 130 146,161 14,498 129
Dec-17 147,522 14,666 130 148,506 14,764 130 146,539 14,568 129
Jan-18 148,039 14,678 130 149,076 14,781 130 147,006 14,576 129
Feb-18 148,149 14,716 130 149,234 14,824 131 147,067 14,609 129
Mar-18 148,048 14,718 130 149,180 14,831 131 146,920 14,606 128
Apr-18 148,092 14,700 130 149,272 14,817 131 146,916 14,583 128
May-18 148,164 14,676 130 149,393 14,798 131 146,940 14,555 128
Jun-18 148,176 14,696 129 149,453 14,823 132 146,905 14,570 128
Jul-18 148,402 14,665 129 149,726 14,796 132 147,085 14,535 127
Aug-18 148,536 14,674 129 149,906 14,809 132 147,174 14,540 127
Sep-18 148,725 14,674 129 150,141 14,814 132 147,317 14,535 127
Oct-18 149,191 14,687 129 150,656 14,831 133 147,734 14,544 127
Nov-18 149,864 14,719 129 151,380 14,868 133 148,356 14,571 126
Dec-18 150,346 14,791 129 151,913 14,945 133 148,789 14,638 126
Jan-19 150,632 14,800 129 152,247 14,959 133 149,028 14,643 126
Feb-19 150,590 14,838 129 152,250 15,002 134 148,942 14,676 126
Mar-19 150,673 14,840 128 152,379 15,008 134 148,980 14,673 125
Apr-19 150,668 14,821 128 152,420 14,993 134 148,930 14,650 125
May-19 150,707 14,797 128 152,505 14,974 134 148,925 14,622 125
Jun-19 150,634 14,816 128 152,476 14,997 135 148,808 14,636 125
Jul-19 150,721 14,785 128 152,609 14,970 135 148,848 14,601 124
Aug-19 150,854 14,794 128 152,790 14,984 135 148,935 14,606 124
Sep-19 151,160 14,795 128 153,146 14,990 135 149,192 14,602 124
Oct-19 151,606 14,808 128 153,645 15,007 136 149,587 14,611 124
Nov-19 152,244 14,840 128 154,338 15,044 136 150,171 14,638 123
Dec-19 152,667 14,912 128 154,814 15,122 136 150,543 14,705 123
Jan-20 152,907 14,922 128 155,104 15,136 136 150,734 14,710 123
Feb-20 152,959 14,960 127 155,203 15,180 137 150,740 14,743 123
Mar-20 153,025 14,962 127 155,316 15,186 137 150,758 14,741 122
Apr-20 153,008 14,943 127 155,346 15,172 137 150,696 14,717 122
May-20 152,996 14,920 127 155,381 15,153 137 150,639 14,690 122
Jun-20 152,850 14,939 127 155,279 15,177 138 150,450 14,705 122
Jul-20 152,982 14,909 127 155,461 15,151 138 150,534 14,671 121
Aug-20 153,137 14,918 127 155,666 15,164 138 150,640 14,675 121
Sep-20 153,446 14,918 127 156,028 15,169 138 150,898 14,670 121
Oct-20 153,862 14,931 127 156,499 15,187 139 151,261 14,679 121
Nov-20 154,464 14,964 127 157,158 15,225 139 151,806 14,707 120
Dec-20 154,895 15,036 127 157,644 15,303 139 152,183 14,773 120
Jan-21 155,161 15,046 126 157,963 15,318 139 152,398 14,778 120
Feb-21 155,220 15,085 126 158,072 15,362 140 152,409 14,812 120
Washington -
Expected Growth
Washington -
High Growth
Washington -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 41
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-21 155,265 15,087 126 158,166 15,369 140 152,407 14,809 119
Apr-21 155,218 15,068 126 158,166 15,354 140 152,315 14,786 119
May-21 155,185 15,045 126 158,181 15,336 140 152,236 14,759 119
Jun-21 155,063 15,065 126 158,105 15,361 141 152,070 14,774 119
Jul-21 155,199 15,032 126 158,288 15,331 141 152,160 14,738 118
Aug-21 155,339 15,042 126 158,475 15,346 141 152,253 14,743 118
Sep-21 155,623 15,041 126 158,810 15,349 141 152,488 14,738 118
Oct-21 156,011 15,053 126 159,252 15,366 142 152,825 14,746 118
Nov-21 156,614 15,086 126 159,913 15,404 142 153,372 14,774 117
Dec-21 157,048 15,158 126 160,402 15,482 142 153,753 14,840 117
Jan-22 157,308 15,167 125 160,713 15,495 142 153,964 14,845 117
Feb-22 157,346 15,205 125 160,798 15,539 143 153,957 14,878 117
Mar-22 157,363 15,207 125 160,861 15,545 143 153,930 14,875 116
Apr-22 157,307 15,188 125 160,848 15,530 143 153,830 14,853 116
May-22 157,274 15,163 125 160,861 15,509 143 153,754 14,824 116
Jun-22 157,150 15,182 125 160,780 15,533 144 153,590 14,838 116
Jul-22 157,280 15,150 125 160,958 15,504 144 153,673 14,803 115
Aug-22 157,408 15,160 125 161,135 15,519 144 153,754 14,808 115
Sep-22 157,687 15,160 125 161,467 15,523 144 153,983 14,804 115
Oct-22 158,080 15,172 125 161,915 15,540 145 154,323 14,812 115
Nov-22 158,691 15,204 125 162,587 15,577 145 154,876 14,839 114
Dec-22 159,125 15,275 125 163,077 15,655 145 155,254 14,904 114
Jan-23 159,376 15,286 124 163,381 15,670 145 155,455 14,910 114
Feb-23 159,406 15,324 124 163,458 15,714 146 155,440 14,943 114
Mar-23 159,425 15,326 124 163,524 15,720 146 155,414 14,941 113
Apr-23 159,373 15,306 124 163,517 15,704 146 155,320 14,917 113
May-23 159,342 15,282 124 163,532 15,684 146 155,245 14,889 113
Jun-23 159,215 15,300 124 163,448 15,707 147 155,078 14,903 113
Jul-23 159,334 15,269 124 163,615 15,679 147 155,151 14,868 112
Aug-23 159,458 15,277 124 163,788 15,692 147 155,229 14,872 112
Sep-23 159,738 15,278 124 164,120 15,697 147 155,458 14,869 112
Oct-23 160,131 15,289 124 164,569 15,713 148 155,798 14,875 112
Nov-23 160,737 15,322 124 165,237 15,751 148 156,345 14,903 111
Dec-23 161,160 15,393 124 165,717 15,828 148 156,713 14,968 111
Jan-24 161,406 15,403 124 166,016 15,843 148 156,909 14,974 111
Feb-24 161,433 15,441 123 166,089 15,886 149 156,892 15,007 111
Mar-24 161,452 15,442 123 166,154 15,892 149 156,868 15,004 110
Apr-24 161,396 15,422 123 166,142 15,876 149 156,770 14,980 110
May-24 161,360 15,397 123 166,150 15,854 149 156,691 14,952 110
Jun-24 161,226 15,416 123 166,058 15,878 150 156,518 14,966 110
Washington -
Expected Growth
Washington -
High Growth
Washington -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 42
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Jul-24 161,347 15,385 123 166,228 15,851 150 156,593 14,932 109
Aug-24 161,474 15,393 123 166,405 15,863 150 156,673 14,935 109
Sep-24 161,755 15,393 123 166,740 15,868 150 156,903 14,931 109
Oct-24 162,148 15,405 123 167,191 15,884 151 157,240 14,939 109
Nov-24 162,752 15,438 123 167,861 15,923 151 157,783 14,967 108
Dec-24 163,176 15,509 123 168,344 16,000 151 158,150 15,031 108
Jan-25 163,424 15,519 123 168,645 16,015 151 158,346 15,037 108
Feb-25 163,454 15,556 122 168,723 16,058 152 158,332 15,069 108
Mar-25 163,473 15,559 122 168,789 16,065 152 158,307 15,067 107
Apr-25 163,417 15,539 122 168,778 16,049 152 158,209 15,044 107
May-25 163,380 15,514 122 168,786 16,027 152 158,130 15,016 107
Jun-25 163,247 15,533 122 168,695 16,052 153 157,957 15,030 107
Jul-25 163,365 15,501 122 168,862 16,023 153 158,030 14,995 106
Aug-25 163,488 15,509 122 169,033 16,035 153 158,107 14,999 106
Sep-25 163,764 15,509 122 169,363 16,039 153 158,333 14,995 106
Oct-25 164,152 15,521 122 169,808 16,056 154 158,665 15,002 106
Nov-25 164,752 15,553 122 170,474 16,093 154 159,203 15,029 105
Dec-25 165,172 15,624 122 170,954 16,171 154 159,567 15,094 105
Jan-26 165,416 15,634 122 171,252 16,186 154 159,761 15,100 105
Feb-26 165,441 15,670 122 171,323 16,227 155 159,743 15,130 105
Mar-26 165,455 15,671 122 171,382 16,233 155 159,714 15,127 104
Apr-26 165,395 15,652 121 171,366 16,217 155 159,614 15,105 104
May-26 165,353 15,627 121 171,367 16,195 155 159,532 15,077 104
Jun-26 165,218 15,646 121 171,271 16,219 156 159,358 15,091 104
Jul-26 165,334 15,614 121 171,436 16,190 156 159,429 15,057 103
Aug-26 165,454 15,622 121 171,604 16,203 156 159,504 15,060 103
Sep-26 165,727 15,622 121 171,932 16,207 156 159,726 15,056 103
Oct-26 166,112 15,633 121 172,375 16,223 157 160,056 15,063 103
Nov-26 166,710 15,665 121 173,040 16,260 157 160,591 15,090 102
Dec-26 167,129 15,736 121 173,520 16,338 157 160,954 15,155 102
Jan-27 167,370 15,744 121 173,815 16,350 157 161,145 15,158 102
Feb-27 167,393 15,782 121 173,882 16,394 158 161,124 15,191 102
Mar-27 167,405 15,783 121 173,940 16,399 158 161,095 15,188 101
Apr-27 167,343 15,763 121 173,920 16,383 158 160,994 15,165 101
May-27 167,300 15,738 120 173,920 16,361 158 160,911 15,137 101
Jun-27 167,161 15,756 120 173,820 16,384 159 160,736 15,151 101
Jul-27 167,273 15,724 120 173,980 16,355 159 160,804 15,116 100
Aug-27 167,391 15,732 120 174,146 16,367 159 160,878 15,120 100
Sep-27 167,661 15,732 120 174,470 16,371 159 161,097 15,116 100
Oct-27 168,043 15,743 120 174,911 16,387 160 161,424 15,123 100
Washington -
Expected Growth
Washington -
High Growth
Washington -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 43
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-27 168,639 15,773 120 175,574 16,422 160 161,955 15,148 99
Dec-27 169,055 15,845 120 176,051 16,501 160 162,315 15,213 99
Jan-28 169,293 15,853 120 176,343 16,513 160 162,503 15,217 99
Feb-28 169,312 15,890 120 176,406 16,556 161 162,481 15,249 99
Mar-28 169,321 15,891 120 176,460 16,561 161 162,449 15,246 98
Apr-28 169,256 15,871 120 176,436 16,544 161 162,347 15,223 98
May-28 169,210 15,846 120 176,432 16,522 161 162,262 15,195 98
Jun-28 169,069 15,864 120 176,329 16,545 162 162,087 15,209 98
Jul-28 169,178 15,832 119 176,484 16,516 162 162,152 15,175 97
Aug-28 169,292 15,839 119 176,645 16,527 162 162,222 15,178 97
Sep-28 169,560 15,838 119 176,967 16,530 162 162,440 15,173 97
Oct-28 169,939 15,848 119 177,405 16,544 163 162,764 15,179 97
Nov-28 170,531 15,880 119 178,066 16,582 163 163,292 15,206 96
Dec-28 170,943 15,951 119 178,539 16,660 163 163,648 15,270 96
Jan-29 171,178 15,959 119 178,827 16,672 163 163,833 15,274 96
Feb-29 171,194 15,996 119 178,887 16,715 164 163,810 15,306 96
Mar-29 171,201 15,996 119 178,936 16,719 164 163,776 15,302 95
Apr-29 171,132 15,976 119 178,907 16,702 164 163,671 15,280 95
May-29 171,083 15,951 119 178,898 16,680 164 163,585 15,252 95
Jun-29 170,938 15,969 119 178,790 16,703 165 163,407 15,266 95
Jul-29 171,044 15,935 119 178,942 16,671 165 163,471 15,230 94
Aug-29 171,156 15,943 118 179,101 16,683 165 163,540 15,234 94
Sep-29 171,420 15,941 118 179,419 16,685 165 163,754 15,228 94
Oct-29 171,797 15,952 118 179,855 16,700 166 164,077 15,235 94
Nov-29 172,386 15,983 118 180,513 16,737 166 164,601 15,261 93
Dec-29 172,796 16,053 118 180,984 16,814 166 164,954 15,325 93
Jan-30 173,028 16,062 118 181,269 16,827 166 165,137 15,330 93
Feb-30 173,042 16,099 118 181,325 16,870 167 165,112 15,361 93
Mar-30 173,044 16,099 118 181,369 16,874 167 165,076 15,358 92
Apr-30 172,973 16,078 118 181,337 16,856 167 164,970 15,334 92
May-30 172,921 16,052 118 181,325 16,832 167 164,882 15,306 92
Jun-30 172,773 16,069 118 181,211 16,854 168 164,703 15,319 92
Jul-30 172,875 16,036 118 181,359 16,823 168 164,764 15,284 91
Aug-30 172,984 16,043 118 181,512 16,834 168 164,830 15,287 91
Sep-30 173,245 16,042 118 181,826 16,837 168 165,043 15,283 91
Oct-30 173,617 16,053 117 182,257 16,852 169 165,361 15,290 91
Nov-30 174,202 16,083 117 182,912 16,887 169 165,881 15,315 90
Dec-30 174,608 16,153 117 183,379 16,965 169 166,231 15,378 90
Jan-31 174,836 16,161 117 183,659 16,977 169 166,411 15,382 90
Feb-31 174,846 16,198 117 183,710 17,019 170 166,384 15,414 90
Washington -
Expected Growth
Washington -
High Growth
Washington -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 44
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-31 174,845 16,198 117 183,750 17,023 170 166,346 15,411 89
Apr-31 174,770 16,177 117 183,711 17,005 170 166,237 15,387 89
May-31 174,714 16,150 117 183,693 16,980 170 166,147 15,358 89
Jun-31 174,563 16,167 117 183,575 17,002 171 165,967 15,371 89
Jul-31 174,663 16,134 117 183,719 16,971 171 166,026 15,336 88
Aug-31 174,768 16,141 117 183,870 16,982 171 166,090 15,340 88
Sep-31 175,027 16,140 117 184,182 16,984 171 166,301 15,335 88
Oct-31 175,398 16,150 117 184,612 16,999 172 166,617 15,342 88
Nov-31 175,980 16,180 117 185,265 17,034 172 167,134 15,367 87
Dec-31 176,384 16,250 116 185,730 17,111 172 167,482 15,430 87
Jan-32 176,611 16,258 116 186,008 17,123 172 167,661 15,434 87
Feb-32 176,619 16,294 116 186,057 17,165 173 167,632 15,465 87
Mar-32 176,615 16,294 116 186,093 17,169 173 167,592 15,462 86
Apr-32 176,538 16,273 116 186,052 17,150 173 167,483 15,438 86
May-32 176,480 16,246 116 186,031 17,125 173 167,392 15,410 86
Jun-32 176,326 16,263 116 185,909 17,147 174 167,210 15,422 86
Jul-32 176,423 16,230 116 186,049 17,116 174 167,268 15,388 85
Aug-32 176,526 16,236 116 186,197 17,126 174 167,331 15,390 85
Sep-32 176,782 16,235 116 186,504 17,128 174 167,538 15,386 85
Oct-32 177,150 16,244 116 186,931 17,141 175 167,852 15,392 85
Nov-32 177,729 16,275 116 187,581 17,177 175 168,366 15,418 84
Dec-32 178,130 16,344 116 188,044 17,254 175 168,711 15,480 84
Jan-33 178,352 16,352 116 188,317 17,266 175 168,886 15,484 84
Feb-33 178,357 16,387 115 188,361 17,306 176 168,856 15,514 84
Mar-33 178,351 16,388 115 188,394 17,311 176 168,815 15,512 83
Apr-33 178,270 16,365 115 188,348 17,290 176 168,704 15,487 83
May-33 178,210 16,339 115 188,322 17,266 176 168,611 15,459 83
Jun-33 178,053 16,356 115 188,195 17,288 177 168,428 15,472 83
Jul-33 178,148 16,322 115 188,334 17,255 177 168,484 15,437 82
Aug-33 178,247 16,328 115 188,476 17,265 177 168,544 15,439 82
Sep-33 178,500 16,327 115 188,781 17,268 177 168,750 15,435 82
Oct-33 178,865 16,336 115 189,205 17,281 178 169,061 15,441 82
Nov-33 179,442 16,366 115 189,854 17,316 178 169,572 15,466 81
Dec-33 179,839 16,435 115 190,312 17,392 178 169,914 15,528 81
Jan-34 180,059 16,442 115 190,583 17,403 178 170,088 15,532 81
Feb-34 180,062 16,478 115 190,623 17,445 179 170,056 15,562 81
Mar-34 180,053 16,477 115 190,652 17,447 179 170,013 15,558 80
Apr-34 179,970 16,455 114 190,602 17,427 179 169,901 15,534 80
May-34 179,906 16,429 114 190,573 17,403 179 169,807 15,507 80
Jun-34 179,746 16,446 114 190,441 17,425 180 169,622 15,520 80
Jul-34 179,838 16,412 114 190,576 17,392 180 169,676 15,485 79
Washington -
Expected Growth
Washington -
High Growth
Washington -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 45
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
WASHINGTON

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Aug-34 179,936 16,418 114 190,717 17,402 180 169,735 15,487 79
Sep-34 180,186 16,416 114 191,019 17,403 180 169,938 15,482 79
Oct-34 180,549 16,425 114 191,440 17,416 181 170,247 15,488 79
Nov-34 181,124 16,454 114 192,087 17,450 181 170,756 15,512 78
Dec-34 181,519 16,524 114 192,543 17,528 181 171,095 15,575 78
Jan-35 181,737 16,531 114 192,812 17,539 181 171,268 15,579 78
Feb-35 181,737 16,566 114 192,849 17,579 182 171,235 15,609 78
Mar-35 181,725 16,565 114 192,874 17,581 182 171,190 15,605 77
Apr-35 181,640 16,543 114 192,821 17,561 182 171,077 15,581 77
May-35 181,573 16,517 114 192,787 17,537 182 170,981 15,554 77
Jun-35 181,413 16,533 114 192,654 17,558 183 170,796 15,566 77
Jul-35 181,504 16,499 113 192,787 17,525 183 170,849 15,531 76
Aug-35 181,600 16,505 113 192,926 17,535 183 170,907 15,533 76
Sep-35 181,849 16,502 113 193,228 17,535 183 171,109 15,528 76
Oct-35 182,211 16,512 113 193,649 17,549 184 171,417 15,534 76
Nov-35 182,784 16,542 113 194,295 17,584 184 171,924 15,559 75
Dec-35 183,178 16,611 113 194,751 17,661 184 172,261 15,621 75
Jan-36 183,395 16,618 113 195,019 17,671 184 172,433 15,625 75
Feb-36 183,394 16,653 113 195,055 17,712 185 172,399 15,655 75
Mar-36 183,382 16,652 113 195,079 17,714 185 172,354 15,651 74
Apr-36 183,296 16,630 113 195,024 17,694 185 172,241 15,627 74
May-36 183,228 16,604 113 194,989 17,670 185 172,144 15,600 74
Jun-36 183,065 16,620 113 194,853 17,690 186 171,958 15,612 74
Jul-36 183,155 16,585 113 194,985 17,656 186 172,011 15,576 73
Aug-36 183,249 16,591 113 195,122 17,666 186 172,067 15,579 73
Sep-36 183,497 16,588 112 195,422 17,666 186 172,268 15,573 73
Oct-36 183,857 16,598 112 195,842 17,680 187 172,574 15,579 73
Nov-36 184,430 16,627 112 196,488 17,714 187 173,079 15,604 72
Dec-36 184,822 16,697 112 196,942 17,792 187 173,415 15,667 72
Jan-37 185,038 16,703 112 197,209 17,802 187 173,585 15,669 72
Feb-37 185,035 16,739 112 197,243 17,844 188 173,550 15,700 72
Mar-37 185,021 16,737 112 197,265 17,845 188 173,505 15,695 71
Apr-37 184,932 16,715 112 197,206 17,825 188 173,389 15,672 71
May-37 184,863 16,688 112 197,170 17,799 188 173,292 15,644 71
Jun-37 184,699 16,704 112 197,031 17,819 189 173,106 15,656 71
Jul-37 184,790 16,670 112 197,164 17,786 189 173,159 15,621 70
Aug-37 184,883 16,676 112 197,299 17,796 189 173,214 15,624 70
Sep-37 185,129 16,673 112 197,598 17,796 189 173,413 15,618 70
Oct-37 185,487 16,682 112 198,016 17,809 190 173,717 15,624 70
Nov-37 186,058 16,712 111 198,662 17,844 190 174,220 15,649 69
Dec-37 186,449 16,780 111 199,115 17,920 190 174,555 15,710 69
Washington -
Expected Growth
Washington -
High Growth
Washington -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 46
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
IDAHO

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-17 73,590 8,874 94 74,177 8,945 94 73,005 8,803 94
Dec-17 73,890 8,909 94 74,511 8,984 94 73,272 8,834 94
Jan-18 74,021 8,917 94 74,674 8,996 94 73,370 8,839 93
Feb-18 74,021 8,924 95 74,706 9,007 95 73,340 8,842 93
Mar-18 74,022 8,915 95 74,738 9,001 95 73,310 8,829 93
Apr-18 73,986 8,914 95 74,733 9,004 95 73,243 8,824 93
May-18 73,968 8,913 95 74,746 9,007 95 73,194 8,820 93
Jun-18 73,964 8,920 95 74,774 9,018 95 73,160 8,823 93
Jul-18 74,060 8,927 95 74,901 9,028 95 73,223 8,826 92
Aug-18 74,149 8,933 95 75,023 9,038 96 73,280 8,828 92
Sep-18 74,350 8,932 95 75,258 9,041 96 73,448 8,824 92
Oct-18 74,521 8,937 96 75,463 9,050 96 73,586 8,825 92
Nov-18 74,777 8,938 96 75,754 9,055 96 73,808 8,822 92
Dec-18 75,100 8,967 96 76,113 9,088 96 74,096 8,847 92
Jan-19 75,236 8,978 96 76,283 9,103 96 74,199 8,854 91
Feb-19 75,235 8,979 96 76,314 9,108 97 74,167 8,851 91
Mar-19 75,237 8,967 96 76,348 9,099 97 74,138 8,836 91
Apr-19 75,203 8,965 96 76,345 9,101 97 74,073 8,830 91
May-19 75,186 8,968 96 76,360 9,108 97 74,025 8,829 91
Jun-19 75,185 8,971 96 76,390 9,115 97 73,992 8,829 91
Jul-19 75,283 8,985 96 76,522 9,133 97 74,057 8,839 90
Aug-19 75,375 8,992 96 76,648 9,144 98 74,116 8,842 90
Sep-19 75,579 8,992 96 76,889 9,148 98 74,285 8,838 90
Oct-19 75,753 8,993 96 77,098 9,153 98 74,424 8,835 90
Nov-19 76,012 8,995 96 77,395 9,159 98 74,647 8,833 90
Dec-19 76,338 9,023 96 77,760 9,191 98 74,935 8,857 90
Jan-20 76,477 9,033 96 77,935 9,205 98 75,040 8,863 89
Feb-20 76,479 9,035 96 77,970 9,211 99 75,010 8,861 89
Mar-20 76,484 9,025 96 78,008 9,205 99 74,983 8,848 89
Apr-20 76,453 9,022 96 78,010 9,206 99 74,921 8,841 89
May-20 76,439 9,027 96 78,029 9,215 99 74,875 8,842 89
Jun-20 76,442 9,029 96 78,064 9,221 99 74,845 8,840 89
Jul-20 76,545 9,043 96 78,203 9,239 99 74,913 8,850 88
Aug-20 76,642 9,049 96 78,337 9,249 100 74,975 8,852 88
Sep-20 76,852 9,050 96 78,586 9,254 100 75,148 8,849 88
Oct-20 77,030 9,050 96 78,803 9,258 100 75,289 8,845 88
Nov-20 77,295 9,053 96 79,109 9,265 100 75,514 8,844 88
Dec-20 77,627 9,081 96 79,483 9,298 100 75,805 8,868 88
Jan-21 77,771 9,092 96 79,666 9,314 100 75,913 8,875 87
Feb-21 77,778 9,094 96 79,708 9,320 101 75,886 8,873 87
Idaho -
Expected Growth
Idaho -
High Growth
Idaho -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 47
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
IDAHO

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-21 77,789 9,083 96 79,754 9,312 101 75,864 8,858 87
Apr-21 77,763 9,080 96 79,763 9,313 101 75,805 8,851 87
May-21 77,755 9,086 96 79,790 9,324 101 75,764 8,853 87
Jun-21 77,762 9,087 96 79,831 9,329 101 75,736 8,850 87
Jul-21 77,866 9,102 96 79,972 9,348 101 75,805 8,861 86
Aug-21 77,964 9,108 96 80,108 9,358 102 75,867 8,863 86
Sep-21 78,175 9,108 96 80,360 9,363 102 76,039 8,859 86
Oct-21 78,354 9,109 96 80,579 9,368 102 76,180 8,856 86
Nov-21 78,620 9,113 96 80,888 9,376 102 76,405 8,856 86
Dec-21 78,953 9,139 96 81,266 9,407 102 76,696 8,878 86
Jan-22 79,098 9,152 96 81,450 9,424 102 76,803 8,886 85
Feb-22 79,106 9,153 96 81,494 9,429 103 76,777 8,884 85
Mar-22 79,117 9,143 96 81,541 9,423 103 76,755 8,870 85
Apr-22 79,092 9,140 96 81,551 9,424 103 76,697 8,863 85
May-22 79,085 9,146 96 81,579 9,434 103 76,657 8,865 85
Jun-22 79,093 9,146 96 81,622 9,438 103 76,630 8,861 85
Jul-22 79,199 9,162 96 81,766 9,459 103 76,700 8,873 84
Aug-22 79,298 9,167 96 81,904 9,468 104 76,762 8,874 84
Sep-22 79,510 9,168 96 82,159 9,473 104 76,934 8,871 84
Oct-22 79,691 9,169 96 82,381 9,479 104 77,076 8,868 84
Nov-22 79,958 9,171 96 82,693 9,485 104 77,301 8,866 84
Dec-22 80,292 9,199 96 83,075 9,518 104 77,590 8,889 84
Jan-23 80,438 9,211 96 83,262 9,534 104 77,697 8,897 83
Feb-23 80,448 9,212 96 83,308 9,539 105 77,673 8,894 83
Mar-23 80,461 9,202 96 83,358 9,533 105 77,652 8,881 83
Apr-23 80,437 9,200 96 83,369 9,535 105 77,595 8,875 83
May-23 80,432 9,204 96 83,399 9,544 105 77,556 8,875 83
Jun-23 80,441 9,206 96 83,444 9,550 105 77,531 8,873 83
Jul-23 80,538 9,221 96 83,578 9,569 105 77,594 8,884 82
Aug-23 80,629 9,226 96 83,705 9,578 106 77,651 8,885 82
Sep-23 80,832 9,227 96 83,949 9,583 106 77,816 8,883 82
Oct-23 81,005 9,228 96 84,162 9,588 106 77,952 8,880 82
Nov-23 81,263 9,230 96 84,463 9,593 106 78,170 8,879 82
Dec-23 81,589 9,258 96 84,835 9,626 106 78,452 8,902 82
Jan-24 81,727 9,269 96 85,012 9,642 106 78,554 8,909 81
Feb-24 81,728 9,270 96 85,047 9,646 107 78,524 8,907 81
Mar-24 81,731 9,260 96 85,083 9,640 107 78,496 8,893 81
Apr-24 81,699 9,256 96 85,084 9,639 107 78,435 8,886 81
May-24 81,685 9,262 96 85,101 9,649 107 78,389 8,888 81
Jun-24 81,685 9,264 96 85,135 9,655 107 78,359 8,887 81
Idaho -
Expected Growth
Idaho -
High Growth
Idaho -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 48
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
IDAHO

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Jul-24 81,781 9,278 96 85,268 9,674 107 78,421 8,897 80
Aug-24 81,871 9,284 96 85,394 9,684 108 78,477 8,899 80
Sep-24 82,073 9,285 96 85,637 9,688 108 78,641 8,897 80
Oct-24 82,244 9,284 96 85,849 9,691 108 78,774 8,892 80
Nov-24 82,501 9,287 96 86,150 9,698 108 78,990 8,892 80
Dec-24 82,825 9,315 96 86,521 9,731 108 79,270 8,915 80
Jan-25 82,962 9,326 96 86,698 9,746 108 79,371 8,922 79
Feb-25 82,961 9,328 96 86,730 9,752 109 79,340 8,921 79
Mar-25 82,964 9,318 96 86,766 9,745 109 79,313 8,908 79
Apr-25 82,930 9,314 96 86,764 9,744 109 79,250 8,901 79
May-25 82,915 9,319 96 86,780 9,753 109 79,204 8,902 79
Jun-25 82,913 9,320 96 86,811 9,758 109 79,172 8,900 79
Jul-25 83,008 9,335 96 86,943 9,778 109 79,233 8,911 78
Aug-25 83,097 9,341 96 87,069 9,787 110 79,289 8,913 78
Sep-25 83,298 9,341 96 87,312 9,791 110 79,451 8,910 78
Oct-25 83,468 9,341 96 87,522 9,795 110 79,584 8,906 78
Nov-25 83,724 9,344 96 87,824 9,802 110 79,798 8,906 78
Dec-25 84,047 9,371 96 88,195 9,834 110 80,076 8,928 78
Jan-26 84,183 9,383 96 88,371 9,850 110 80,176 8,936 77
Feb-26 84,181 9,385 96 88,402 9,856 111 80,144 8,935 77
Mar-26 84,183 9,374 96 88,437 9,848 111 80,116 8,921 77
Apr-26 84,148 9,371 96 88,433 9,848 111 80,053 8,915 77
May-26 84,132 9,376 96 88,448 9,857 111 80,007 8,916 77
Jun-26 84,129 9,377 96 88,478 9,862 111 79,974 8,914 77
Jul-26 84,223 9,392 96 88,609 9,881 111 80,035 8,925 76
Aug-26 84,311 9,398 96 88,734 9,891 112 80,089 8,927 76
Sep-26 84,511 9,397 96 88,977 9,894 112 80,250 8,923 76
Oct-26 84,680 9,398 96 89,187 9,898 112 80,381 8,921 76
Nov-26 84,936 9,400 96 89,489 9,904 112 80,595 8,920 76
Dec-26 85,258 9,428 96 89,861 9,937 112 80,871 8,943 76
Jan-27 85,392 9,440 96 90,035 9,953 112 80,969 8,951 75
Feb-27 85,390 9,440 96 90,066 9,957 113 80,937 8,948 75
Mar-27 85,391 9,430 96 90,100 9,950 113 80,909 8,935 75
Apr-27 85,356 9,427 96 90,095 9,950 113 80,845 8,929 75
May-27 85,338 9,432 96 90,109 9,959 113 80,799 8,930 75
Jun-27 85,335 9,433 96 90,138 9,964 113 80,767 8,928 75
Jul-27 85,430 9,448 96 90,271 9,983 113 80,828 8,939 74
Aug-27 85,518 9,453 96 90,397 9,992 114 80,882 8,941 74
Sep-27 85,719 9,454 96 90,642 9,997 114 81,042 8,938 74
Oct-27 85,889 9,455 96 90,855 10,002 114 81,174 8,936 74
Idaho -
Expected Growth
Idaho -
High Growth
Idaho -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 49
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
IDAHO

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-27 86,145 9,457 96 91,158 10,007 114 81,386 8,935 74
Dec-27 86,468 9,485 96 91,533 10,041 114 81,662 8,958 74
Jan-28 86,603 9,497 96 91,709 10,057 114 81,760 8,966 73
Feb-28 86,602 9,497 96 91,742 10,061 115 81,729 8,963 73
Mar-28 86,603 9,487 96 91,776 10,054 115 81,701 8,950 73
Apr-28 86,569 9,484 96 91,772 10,054 115 81,638 8,944 73
May-28 86,552 9,489 96 91,787 10,063 115 81,593 8,945 73
Jun-28 86,549 9,490 96 91,817 10,068 115 81,561 8,943 73
Jul-28 86,645 9,504 96 91,952 10,086 115 81,622 8,953 72
Aug-28 86,735 9,510 96 92,081 10,096 116 81,677 8,955 72
Sep-28 86,937 9,511 96 92,328 10,101 116 81,838 8,953 72
Oct-28 87,107 9,511 96 92,542 10,104 116 81,969 8,950 72
Nov-28 87,364 9,514 96 92,849 10,111 116 82,181 8,950 72
Dec-28 87,688 9,542 96 93,226 10,145 116 82,456 8,973 72
Jan-29 87,824 9,553 96 93,405 10,160 116 82,554 8,980 71
Feb-29 87,824 9,554 96 93,438 10,165 117 82,525 8,977 71
Mar-29 87,826 9,544 96 93,474 10,158 117 82,497 8,965 71
Apr-29 87,793 9,540 96 93,471 10,157 117 82,435 8,958 71
May-29 87,777 9,546 96 93,488 10,167 117 82,391 8,960 71
Jun-29 87,775 9,547 96 93,519 10,172 117 82,359 8,958 71
Jul-29 87,871 9,561 96 93,655 10,190 117 82,420 8,968 70
Aug-29 87,960 9,567 96 93,783 10,200 118 82,474 8,970 70
Sep-29 88,162 9,568 96 94,032 10,205 118 82,635 8,968 70
Oct-29 88,333 9,568 96 94,248 10,209 118 82,766 8,965 70
Nov-29 88,590 9,571 96 94,555 10,215 118 82,977 8,965 70
Dec-29 88,914 9,598 96 94,935 10,248 118 83,251 8,987 70
Jan-30 89,050 9,610 96 95,114 10,264 118 83,349 8,995 69
Feb-30 89,049 9,611 96 95,146 10,269 119 83,318 8,992 69
Mar-30 89,051 9,600 96 95,182 10,261 119 83,291 8,979 69
Apr-30 89,019 9,597 96 95,181 10,261 119 83,230 8,973 69
May-30 89,002 9,603 96 95,196 10,271 119 83,185 8,975 69
Jun-30 89,000 9,603 96 95,228 10,275 119 83,154 8,972 69
Jul-30 89,099 9,619 96 95,368 10,296 119 83,216 8,984 68
Aug-30 89,192 9,624 96 95,502 10,305 120 83,273 8,985 68
Sep-30 89,397 9,624 96 95,756 10,309 120 83,435 8,982 68
Oct-30 89,570 9,625 96 95,976 10,313 120 83,566 8,980 68
Nov-30 89,831 9,628 96 96,290 10,320 120 83,779 8,979 68
Dec-30 90,157 9,655 96 96,675 10,353 120 84,053 9,001 68
Jan-31 90,297 9,667 96 96,860 10,370 120 84,153 9,009 67
Feb-31 90,299 9,669 96 96,897 10,375 121 84,125 9,008 67
Idaho -
Low Growth
Idaho -
Expected Growth
Idaho -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 50
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
IDAHO

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-31 90,305 9,658 96 96,937 10,367 121 84,099 8,994 67
Apr-31 90,274 9,655 96 96,938 10,368 121 84,040 8,988 67
May-31 90,261 9,660 96 96,959 10,377 121 83,998 8,990 67
Jun-31 90,262 9,661 96 96,995 10,382 121 83,969 8,987 67
Jul-31 90,364 9,677 96 97,140 10,403 121 84,033 8,999 66
Aug-31 90,458 9,681 96 97,276 10,411 122 84,090 9,000 66
Sep-31 90,665 9,682 96 97,534 10,416 122 84,252 8,997 66
Oct-31 90,841 9,683 96 97,759 10,420 122 84,385 8,995 66
Nov-31 91,104 9,686 96 98,078 10,427 122 84,599 8,994 66
Dec-31 91,432 9,713 96 98,467 10,460 122 84,873 9,016 66
Jan-32 91,574 9,726 96 98,655 10,478 122 84,974 9,025 65
Feb-32 91,579 9,726 96 98,696 10,482 123 84,948 9,022 65
Mar-32 91,587 9,716 96 98,740 10,475 123 84,923 9,009 65
Apr-32 91,558 9,713 96 98,744 10,475 123 84,866 9,003 65
May-32 91,547 9,718 96 98,768 10,485 123 84,825 9,004 65
Jun-32 91,551 9,720 96 98,808 10,491 123 84,798 9,003 65
Jul-32 91,654 9,735 96 98,955 10,511 123 84,862 9,014 64
Aug-32 91,750 9,740 96 99,095 10,520 124 84,920 9,015 64
Sep-32 91,959 9,741 96 99,357 10,525 124 85,083 9,013 64
Oct-32 92,137 9,741 96 99,585 10,528 124 85,217 9,009 64
Nov-32 92,401 9,744 96 99,907 10,536 124 85,430 9,009 64
Dec-32 92,732 9,772 96 100,301 10,570 124 85,705 9,031 64
Jan-33 92,875 9,783 96 100,493 10,585 124 85,806 9,038 63
Feb-33 92,882 9,785 96 100,537 10,591 125 85,781 9,037 63
Mar-33 92,892 9,775 96 100,583 10,584 125 85,758 9,024 63
Apr-33 92,865 9,771 96 100,590 10,584 125 85,702 9,017 63
May-33 92,856 9,777 96 100,617 10,594 125 85,663 9,020 63
Jun-33 92,862 9,779 96 100,660 10,600 125 85,637 9,018 63
Jul-33 92,967 9,793 96 100,811 10,619 125 85,703 9,028 62
Aug-33 93,065 9,799 96 100,954 10,630 126 85,762 9,030 62
Sep-33 93,277 9,800 96 101,221 10,635 126 85,926 9,028 62
Oct-33 93,457 9,800 96 101,453 10,639 126 86,060 9,024 62
Nov-33 93,723 9,804 96 101,779 10,647 126 86,273 9,025 62
Dec-33 94,056 9,831 96 102,178 10,680 126 86,548 9,046 62
Jan-34 94,202 9,843 96 102,374 10,697 126 86,651 9,054 61
Feb-34 94,211 9,844 96 102,422 10,702 127 86,628 9,052 61
Mar-34 94,223 9,834 96 102,471 10,695 127 86,606 9,039 61
Apr-34 94,199 9,831 96 102,482 10,696 127 86,552 9,033 61
May-34 94,192 9,837 96 102,512 10,706 127 86,514 9,035 61
Jun-34 94,199 9,837 96 102,557 10,710 127 86,489 9,032 61
Jul-34 94,306 9,853 96 102,711 10,731 127 86,556 9,043 60
Idaho -
Low Growth
Idaho -
Expected Growth
Idaho -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 51
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
IDAHO

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Aug-34 94,406 9,859 96 102,858 10,742 128 86,616 9,045 60
Sep-34 94,619 9,859 96 103,128 10,746 128 86,780 9,042 60
Oct-34 94,801 9,860 96 103,364 10,751 128 86,915 9,040 60
Nov-34 95,069 9,863 96 103,694 10,758 128 87,129 9,039 60
Dec-34 95,404 9,890 96 104,098 10,791 128 87,404 9,061 60
Jan-35 95,551 9,903 96 104,296 10,809 128 87,506 9,069 59
Feb-35 95,563 9,904 96 104,346 10,814 129 87,484 9,067 59
Mar-35 95,576 9,894 96 104,399 10,807 129 87,464 9,054 59
Apr-35 95,553 9,891 96 104,412 10,808 129 87,411 9,048 59
May-35 95,548 9,897 96 104,445 10,819 129 87,375 9,050 59
Jun-35 95,557 9,897 96 104,493 10,822 129 87,351 9,047 59
Jul-35 95,666 9,913 96 104,650 10,844 129 87,419 9,058 58
Aug-35 95,769 9,918 96 104,802 10,853 130 87,481 9,060 58
Sep-35 95,984 9,919 96 105,076 10,859 130 87,645 9,057 58
Oct-35 96,168 9,920 96 105,316 10,864 130 87,780 9,055 58
Nov-35 96,439 9,923 96 105,651 10,871 130 87,995 9,054 58
Dec-35 96,776 9,951 96 106,060 10,906 130 88,270 9,076 58
Jan-36 96,926 9,963 96 106,263 10,923 130 88,375 9,084 57
Feb-36 96,940 9,964 96 106,317 10,928 131 88,354 9,082 57
Mar-36 96,955 9,954 96 106,372 10,921 131 88,335 9,069 57
Apr-36 96,935 9,951 96 106,389 10,922 131 88,285 9,063 57
May-36 96,932 9,956 96 106,425 10,931 131 88,249 9,064 57
Jun-36 96,944 9,958 96 106,478 10,937 131 88,228 9,063 57
Jul-36 97,055 9,974 96 106,639 10,959 131 88,296 9,074 56
Aug-36 97,159 9,979 96 106,793 10,968 132 88,358 9,075 56
Sep-36 97,377 9,980 96 107,072 10,974 132 88,524 9,073 56
Oct-36 97,563 9,981 96 107,316 10,979 132 88,660 9,070 56
Nov-36 97,835 9,984 96 107,655 10,986 132 88,875 9,070 56
Dec-36 98,174 10,012 96 108,067 11,021 132 89,150 9,092 56
Jan-37 98,326 10,023 96 108,275 11,037 132 89,255 9,098 55
Feb-37 98,341 10,025 96 108,330 11,043 133 89,235 9,097 55
Mar-37 98,359 10,015 96 108,390 11,036 133 89,218 9,084 55
Apr-37 98,340 10,011 96 108,409 11,036 133 89,168 9,077 55
May-37 98,340 10,017 96 108,449 11,047 133 89,135 9,079 55
Jun-37 98,353 10,019 96 108,503 11,053 133 89,114 9,078 55
Jul-37 98,466 10,034 96 108,668 11,074 133 89,184 9,088 54
Aug-37 98,572 10,040 96 108,825 11,084 134 89,247 9,090 54
Sep-37 98,791 10,041 96 109,107 11,089 134 89,412 9,088 54
Oct-37 98,978 10,042 96 109,354 11,095 134 89,548 9,085 54
Nov-37 99,252 10,045 96 109,697 11,102 134 89,763 9,085 54
Dec-37 99,592 10,073 96 110,113 11,137 134 90,038 9,107 54
Idaho -
Low Growth
Idaho -
Expected Growth
Idaho -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 52
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-17 54,604 6,919 15 54,965 6,965 15 54,244 6,873 15
Dec-17 54,921 6,966 15 55,302 7,014 15 54,541 6,918 15
Jan-18 55,150 7,001 15 55,551 7,052 15 54,750 6,951 15
Feb-18 55,132 7,025 15 55,552 7,079 15 54,714 6,972 15
Mar-18 55,110 7,009 15 55,548 7,065 15 54,674 6,954 15
Apr-18 55,081 7,004 15 55,537 7,062 15 54,627 6,947 15
May-18 54,977 6,995 15 55,450 7,056 15 54,506 6,935 15
Jun-18 54,860 6,975 15 55,350 7,038 15 54,372 6,913 15
Jul-18 54,730 6,964 15 55,237 7,029 15 54,226 6,900 15
Aug-18 54,648 6,966 15 55,171 7,033 15 54,128 6,900 15
Sep-18 54,650 6,937 15 55,191 7,006 15 54,112 6,869 15
Oct-18 54,917 6,954 15 55,478 7,025 16 54,360 6,884 15
Nov-18 55,303 7,003 15 55,885 7,077 16 54,725 6,930 14
Dec-18 55,650 7,047 15 56,254 7,124 16 55,050 6,971 14
Jan-19 55,862 7,076 15 56,486 7,155 16 55,243 6,998 14
Feb-19 55,858 7,095 15 56,499 7,177 16 55,221 7,014 14
Mar-19 55,847 7,095 15 56,506 7,179 16 55,193 7,012 14
Apr-19 55,810 7,075 15 56,486 7,161 16 55,139 6,990 14
May-19 55,722 7,068 15 56,415 7,156 16 55,035 6,981 14
Jun-19 55,598 7,058 15 56,307 7,148 16 54,895 6,969 14
Jul-19 55,454 7,033 15 56,178 7,125 16 54,736 6,942 14
Aug-19 55,371 7,022 15 56,111 7,116 16 54,638 6,929 14
Sep-19 55,364 7,018 15 56,121 7,114 16 54,614 6,923 14
Oct-19 55,624 7,030 15 56,402 7,128 16 54,854 6,933 14
Nov-19 56,009 7,074 15 56,809 7,175 16 55,217 6,974 14
Dec-19 56,352 7,120 15 57,174 7,224 16 55,538 7,017 14
Jan-20 56,565 7,152 15 57,408 7,258 16 55,731 7,046 14
Feb-20 56,563 7,173 15 57,423 7,282 16 55,712 7,065 14
Mar-20 56,551 7,167 15 57,428 7,278 16 55,684 7,057 14
Apr-20 56,514 7,152 15 57,408 7,265 16 55,630 7,040 14
May-20 56,424 7,145 15 57,334 7,260 16 55,525 7,031 14
Jun-20 56,297 7,131 15 57,222 7,248 16 55,383 7,015 14
Jul-20 56,154 7,111 15 57,094 7,230 16 55,226 6,993 14
Aug-20 56,071 7,105 15 57,027 7,226 16 55,127 6,985 14
Sep-20 56,064 7,091 15 57,037 7,214 16 55,104 6,969 14
Oct-20 56,325 7,104 15 57,320 7,229 17 55,343 6,980 14
Nov-20 56,712 7,151 15 57,732 7,279 17 55,706 7,024 13
Dec-20 57,056 7,196 15 58,100 7,327 17 56,027 7,066 13
Jan-21 57,272 7,227 15 58,337 7,361 17 56,222 7,094 13
Feb-21 57,271 7,247 15 58,354 7,384 17 56,204 7,112 13
Medford -
Expected Growth
Medford -
High Growth
Medford -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 53
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-21 57,261 7,244 15 58,362 7,383 17 56,177 7,106 13
Apr-21 57,226 7,227 15 58,344 7,368 17 56,126 7,088 13
May-21 57,138 7,220 15 58,272 7,363 17 56,022 7,079 13
Jun-21 57,011 7,207 15 58,160 7,352 17 55,881 7,064 13
Jul-21 56,867 7,186 15 58,030 7,332 17 55,723 7,041 13
Aug-21 56,783 7,178 15 57,962 7,327 17 55,624 7,031 13
Sep-21 56,776 7,168 15 57,972 7,318 17 55,600 7,019 13
Oct-21 57,036 7,180 15 58,255 7,333 17 55,838 7,029 13
Nov-21 57,422 7,226 15 58,666 7,382 17 56,199 7,072 13
Dec-21 57,766 7,271 15 59,036 7,430 17 56,519 7,114 13
Jan-22 57,981 7,301 15 59,273 7,464 17 56,713 7,141 13
Feb-22 57,980 7,322 15 59,290 7,487 17 56,695 7,160 13
Mar-22 57,969 7,318 15 59,296 7,485 17 56,667 7,154 13
Apr-22 57,933 7,302 15 59,277 7,471 17 56,615 7,136 13
May-22 57,844 7,295 15 59,203 7,466 17 56,511 7,127 13
Jun-22 57,717 7,281 15 59,091 7,454 17 56,370 7,111 13
Jul-22 57,573 7,260 15 58,961 7,435 17 56,213 7,088 13
Aug-22 57,489 7,253 15 58,892 7,430 17 56,114 7,079 13
Sep-22 57,482 7,242 15 58,902 7,421 17 56,091 7,067 13
Oct-22 57,742 7,254 15 59,186 7,435 18 56,328 7,076 13
Nov-22 58,128 7,300 15 59,600 7,485 18 56,688 7,119 12
Dec-22 58,472 7,346 15 59,970 7,534 18 57,006 7,162 12
Jan-23 58,687 7,376 15 60,208 7,568 18 57,199 7,189 12
Feb-23 58,687 7,396 15 60,226 7,590 18 57,182 7,207 12
Mar-23 58,676 7,392 15 60,233 7,588 18 57,154 7,201 12
Apr-23 58,640 7,376 15 60,213 7,574 18 57,102 7,183 12
May-23 58,551 7,369 15 60,140 7,569 18 56,999 7,174 12
Jun-23 58,424 7,356 15 60,027 7,558 18 56,858 7,159 12
Jul-23 58,271 7,334 15 59,885 7,538 18 56,695 7,136 12
Aug-23 58,178 7,326 15 59,805 7,531 18 56,590 7,126 12
Sep-23 58,161 7,315 15 59,802 7,522 18 56,559 7,114 12
Oct-23 58,411 7,327 15 60,075 7,536 18 56,787 7,124 12
Nov-23 58,788 7,372 15 60,478 7,584 18 57,139 7,166 12
Dec-23 59,122 7,417 15 60,837 7,633 18 57,449 7,208 12
Jan-24 59,328 7,447 15 61,065 7,665 18 57,635 7,234 12
Feb-24 59,317 7,467 15 61,069 7,688 18 57,609 7,252 12
Mar-24 59,298 7,463 15 61,065 7,685 18 57,576 7,246 12
Apr-24 59,252 7,446 15 61,033 7,670 18 57,517 7,228 12
May-24 59,153 7,438 15 60,947 7,664 18 57,406 7,218 12
Jun-24 59,016 7,425 15 60,821 7,652 18 57,258 7,204 12
Medford -
Expected Growth
Medford -
High Growth
Medford -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 54
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Jul-24 58,864 7,403 15 60,680 7,631 18 57,096 7,181 12
Aug-24 58,771 7,395 15 60,600 7,625 18 56,991 7,171 12
Sep-24 58,755 7,384 15 60,599 7,616 18 56,961 7,159 12
Oct-24 59,006 7,396 15 60,873 7,630 19 57,190 7,168 12
Nov-24 59,383 7,441 15 61,278 7,678 19 57,541 7,210 11
Dec-24 59,718 7,486 15 61,639 7,727 19 57,850 7,252 11
Jan-25 59,924 7,516 15 61,867 7,759 19 58,035 7,279 11
Feb-25 59,915 7,536 15 61,874 7,782 19 58,012 7,296 11
Mar-25 59,895 7,532 15 61,869 7,780 19 57,977 7,290 11
Apr-25 59,850 7,515 15 61,838 7,764 19 57,919 7,272 11
May-25 59,752 7,508 15 61,753 7,759 19 57,809 7,263 11
Jun-25 59,616 7,494 15 61,628 7,746 19 57,663 7,248 11
Jul-25 59,463 7,472 15 61,485 7,726 19 57,501 7,225 11
Aug-25 59,370 7,464 15 61,405 7,719 19 57,396 7,215 11
Sep-25 59,353 7,453 15 61,402 7,710 19 57,365 7,203 11
Oct-25 59,604 7,465 15 61,678 7,724 19 57,593 7,213 11
Nov-25 59,981 7,510 15 62,083 7,773 19 57,943 7,254 11
Dec-25 60,316 7,555 15 62,446 7,821 19 58,252 7,296 11
Jan-26 60,521 7,585 15 62,674 7,855 19 58,435 7,324 11
Feb-26 60,511 7,604 15 62,679 7,876 19 58,411 7,340 11
Mar-26 60,492 7,600 15 62,675 7,874 19 58,378 7,334 11
Apr-26 60,446 7,583 15 62,643 7,859 19 58,319 7,316 11
May-26 60,348 7,576 15 62,557 7,853 19 58,210 7,307 11
Jun-26 60,211 7,562 15 62,431 7,841 19 58,063 7,292 11
Jul-26 60,057 7,540 15 62,287 7,820 19 57,900 7,269 11
Aug-26 59,964 7,532 15 62,206 7,813 19 57,796 7,260 11
Sep-26 59,946 7,521 15 62,202 7,804 19 57,764 7,247 11
Oct-26 60,197 7,533 15 62,478 7,818 20 57,992 7,257 11
Nov-26 60,573 7,578 15 62,884 7,867 20 58,340 7,299 10
Dec-26 60,907 7,623 15 63,246 7,916 20 58,647 7,340 10
Jan-27 61,112 7,652 15 63,475 7,948 20 58,830 7,366 10
Feb-27 61,102 7,672 15 63,480 7,971 20 58,806 7,384 10
Mar-27 61,081 7,668 15 63,474 7,969 20 58,771 7,378 10
Apr-27 61,035 7,651 15 63,442 7,953 20 58,712 7,360 10
May-27 60,936 7,643 15 63,354 7,946 20 58,602 7,350 10
Jun-27 60,799 7,630 15 63,227 7,935 20 58,456 7,336 10
Jul-27 60,644 7,608 15 63,081 7,914 20 58,293 7,313 10
Aug-27 60,549 7,599 15 62,998 7,906 20 58,188 7,303 10
Sep-27 60,531 7,588 15 62,994 7,897 20 58,157 7,291 10
Oct-27 60,780 7,600 15 63,268 7,911 20 58,382 7,300 10
Medford -
Expected Growth
Medford -
High Growth
Medford -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 55
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-27 61,155 7,645 15 63,674 7,960 20 58,728 7,342 10
Dec-27 61,488 7,690 15 64,036 8,009 20 59,033 7,383 10
Jan-28 61,692 7,720 15 64,264 8,042 20 59,215 7,411 10
Feb-28 61,680 7,739 15 64,267 8,064 20 59,189 7,427 10
Mar-28 61,659 7,735 15 64,260 8,062 20 59,155 7,421 10
Apr-28 61,611 7,718 15 64,226 8,046 20 59,095 7,403 10
May-28 61,511 7,710 15 64,137 8,040 20 58,985 7,394 10
Jun-28 61,373 7,696 15 64,008 8,027 20 58,838 7,379 10
Jul-28 61,216 7,674 15 63,859 8,006 20 58,674 7,356 10
Aug-28 61,120 7,666 15 63,774 7,999 20 58,568 7,346 10
Sep-28 61,099 7,655 15 63,767 7,990 20 58,535 7,334 10
Oct-28 61,347 7,667 15 64,040 8,004 21 58,759 7,344 10
Nov-28 61,720 7,712 15 64,445 8,053 21 59,102 7,385 9
Dec-28 62,052 7,756 15 64,806 8,101 21 59,406 7,426 9
Jan-29 62,254 7,787 15 65,032 8,134 21 59,586 7,453 9
Feb-29 62,240 7,806 15 65,033 8,156 21 59,559 7,470 9
Mar-29 62,217 7,802 15 65,024 8,154 21 59,523 7,464 9
Apr-29 62,168 7,785 15 64,988 8,138 21 59,462 7,446 9
May-29 62,066 7,777 15 64,896 8,131 21 59,351 7,437 9
Jun-29 61,926 7,763 15 64,764 8,119 21 59,203 7,422 9
Jul-29 61,768 7,741 15 64,614 8,097 21 59,039 7,399 9
Aug-29 61,670 7,733 15 64,526 8,091 21 58,932 7,390 9
Sep-29 61,649 7,721 15 64,518 8,080 21 58,899 7,376 9
Oct-29 61,895 7,733 15 64,790 8,095 21 59,120 7,386 9
Nov-29 62,267 7,778 15 65,194 8,144 21 59,462 7,428 9
Dec-29 62,597 7,822 15 65,555 8,191 21 59,764 7,468 9
Jan-30 62,798 7,852 15 65,780 8,225 21 59,942 7,495 9
Feb-30 62,783 7,871 15 65,779 8,247 21 59,915 7,512 9
Mar-30 62,759 7,867 15 65,769 8,244 21 59,878 7,506 9
Apr-30 62,708 7,850 15 65,730 8,229 21 59,816 7,488 9
May-30 62,605 7,842 15 65,637 8,222 21 59,704 7,479 9
Jun-30 62,464 7,828 15 65,504 8,209 21 59,556 7,464 9
Jul-30 62,304 7,806 15 65,350 8,188 21 59,391 7,441 9
Aug-30 62,204 7,797 15 65,259 8,180 21 59,283 7,431 9
Sep-30 62,181 7,786 15 65,249 8,170 21 59,248 7,419 9
Oct-30 62,425 7,797 15 65,519 8,184 22 59,468 7,428 9
Nov-30 62,795 7,842 15 65,922 8,233 22 59,807 7,469 8
Dec-30 63,123 7,887 15 66,280 8,282 22 60,107 7,510 8
Jan-31 63,322 7,917 15 66,504 8,314 22 60,283 7,537 8
Feb-31 63,305 7,936 15 66,500 8,336 22 60,254 7,553 8
Medford -
Expected Growth
Medford -
High Growth
Medford -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 56
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-31 63,278 7,931 15 66,486 8,333 22 60,215 7,547 8
Apr-31 63,226 7,915 15 66,446 8,318 22 60,153 7,530 8
May-31 63,121 7,906 15 66,350 8,310 22 60,040 7,520 8
Jun-31 62,978 7,892 15 66,214 8,297 22 59,891 7,505 8
Jul-31 62,816 7,870 15 66,057 8,276 22 59,725 7,482 8
Aug-31 62,714 7,861 15 65,963 8,268 22 59,615 7,472 8
Sep-31 62,689 7,850 15 65,951 8,258 22 59,579 7,460 8
Oct-31 62,931 7,861 15 66,219 8,271 22 59,797 7,469 8
Nov-31 63,300 7,906 15 66,621 8,320 22 60,135 7,510 8
Dec-31 63,626 7,950 15 66,978 8,369 22 60,432 7,551 8
Jan-32 63,823 7,980 15 67,200 8,402 22 60,606 7,578 8
Feb-32 63,804 7,999 15 67,193 8,424 22 60,576 7,594 8
Mar-32 63,776 7,994 15 67,178 8,421 22 60,536 7,588 8
Apr-32 63,722 7,977 15 67,135 8,404 22 60,473 7,570 8
May-32 63,615 7,969 15 67,036 8,398 22 60,359 7,561 8
Jun-32 63,470 7,955 15 66,897 8,385 22 60,208 7,546 8
Jul-32 63,306 7,932 15 66,738 8,362 22 60,041 7,523 8
Aug-32 63,203 7,923 15 66,643 8,354 22 59,931 7,513 8
Sep-32 63,177 7,912 15 66,628 8,344 22 59,894 7,501 8
Oct-32 63,418 7,923 15 66,896 8,358 23 60,111 7,510 8
Nov-32 63,784 7,968 15 67,296 8,407 23 60,446 7,551 7
Dec-32 64,109 8,012 15 67,652 8,455 23 60,741 7,591 7
Jan-33 64,305 8,042 15 67,873 8,488 23 60,915 7,618 7
Feb-33 64,285 8,062 15 67,865 8,511 23 60,884 7,635 7
Mar-33 64,255 8,056 15 67,847 8,506 23 60,843 7,628 7
Apr-33 64,199 8,039 15 67,801 8,490 23 60,778 7,610 7
May-33 64,091 8,031 15 67,701 8,483 23 60,663 7,601 7
Jun-33 63,944 8,017 15 67,559 8,470 23 60,512 7,586 7
Jul-33 63,780 7,994 15 67,399 8,447 23 60,345 7,563 7
Aug-33 63,675 7,985 15 67,301 8,439 23 60,234 7,553 7
Sep-33 63,647 7,974 15 67,285 8,429 23 60,196 7,541 7
Oct-33 63,887 7,985 15 67,552 8,443 23 60,411 7,550 7
Nov-33 64,252 8,030 15 67,951 8,492 23 60,744 7,591 7
Dec-33 64,576 8,074 15 68,307 8,540 23 61,039 7,631 7
Jan-34 64,770 8,103 15 68,525 8,573 23 61,210 7,658 7
Feb-34 64,748 8,122 15 68,515 8,594 23 61,177 7,674 7
Mar-34 64,717 8,117 15 68,496 8,591 23 61,136 7,668 7
Apr-34 64,660 8,100 15 68,449 8,575 23 61,070 7,650 7
May-34 64,551 8,091 15 68,347 8,567 23 60,956 7,640 7
Jun-34 64,403 8,077 15 68,203 8,554 23 60,804 7,626 7
Jul-34 64,237 8,054 15 68,040 8,531 23 60,636 7,602 7
Medford -
Expected Growth
Medford -
High Growth
Medford -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 57
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
MEDFORD

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Aug-34 64,131 8,046 15 67,941 8,524 23 60,524 7,593 7
Sep-34 64,102 8,034 15 67,923 8,513 23 60,485 7,581 7
Oct-34 64,340 8,045 15 68,188 8,526 24 60,699 7,590 7
Nov-34 64,704 8,090 15 68,587 8,575 24 61,030 7,631 6
Dec-34 65,026 8,134 15 68,941 8,624 24 61,323 7,671 6
Jan-35 65,219 8,163 15 69,158 8,656 24 61,493 7,697 6
Feb-35 65,196 8,182 15 69,147 8,678 24 61,460 7,713 6
Mar-35 65,164 8,177 15 69,126 8,675 24 61,418 7,707 6
Apr-35 65,106 8,159 15 69,078 8,657 24 61,352 7,689 6
May-35 64,995 8,151 15 68,973 8,650 24 61,236 7,680 6
Jun-35 64,845 8,136 15 68,827 8,636 24 61,083 7,664 6
Jul-35 64,679 8,114 15 68,663 8,614 24 60,915 7,642 6
Aug-35 64,573 8,105 15 68,564 8,606 24 60,804 7,632 6
Sep-35 64,543 8,093 15 68,544 8,595 24 60,764 7,620 6
Oct-35 64,781 8,104 15 68,810 8,608 24 60,977 7,628 6
Nov-35 65,145 8,149 15 69,209 8,658 24 61,308 7,669 6
Dec-35 65,467 8,193 15 69,564 8,706 24 61,600 7,709 6
Jan-36 65,660 8,223 15 69,783 8,739 24 61,770 7,736 6
Feb-36 65,637 8,242 15 69,771 8,761 24 61,737 7,752 6
Mar-36 65,604 8,237 15 69,749 8,757 24 61,694 7,746 6
Apr-36 65,545 8,219 15 69,699 8,740 24 61,627 7,728 6
May-36 65,434 8,211 15 69,594 8,733 24 61,511 7,719 6
Jun-36 65,284 8,197 15 69,448 8,720 24 61,359 7,704 6
Jul-36 65,118 8,174 15 69,284 8,697 24 61,192 7,681 6
Aug-36 65,011 8,165 15 69,182 8,689 24 61,080 7,671 6
Sep-36 64,981 8,153 15 69,163 8,678 24 61,040 7,659 6
Oct-36 65,219 8,164 15 69,429 8,691 25 61,253 7,667 6
Nov-36 65,582 8,209 15 69,829 8,740 25 61,582 7,708 5
Dec-36 65,904 8,253 15 70,184 8,789 25 61,873 7,748 5
Jan-37 66,096 8,283 15 70,402 8,822 25 62,042 7,775 5
Feb-37 66,073 8,302 15 70,390 8,844 25 62,009 7,791 5
Mar-37 66,040 8,297 15 70,368 8,840 25 61,967 7,785 5
Apr-37 65,980 8,279 15 70,317 8,823 25 61,899 7,767 5
May-37 65,869 8,271 15 70,211 8,816 25 61,784 7,758 5
Jun-37 65,719 8,257 15 70,064 8,802 25 61,632 7,743 5
Jul-37 65,553 8,234 15 69,900 8,780 25 61,465 7,720 5
Aug-37 65,445 8,225 15 69,797 8,772 25 61,352 7,710 5
Sep-37 65,415 8,213 15 69,778 8,760 25 61,313 7,698 5
Oct-37 65,651 8,224 15 70,042 8,774 25 61,523 7,707 5
Nov-37 66,014 8,269 15 70,442 8,823 25 61,852 7,747 5
Dec-37 66,334 8,313 15 70,796 8,872 25 62,141 7,787 5
Medford -
Expected Growth
Medford -
High Growth
Medford -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 58
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-17 13,522 2,157 2 13,606 2,171 2 13,438 2,144 2
Dec-17 13,665 2,172 2 13,755 2,186 2 13,575 2,158 2
Jan-18 13,677 2,169 2 13,772 2,184 2 13,583 2,154 2
Feb-18 13,679 2,176 2 13,778 2,192 2 13,580 2,160 2
Mar-18 13,681 2,184 2 13,785 2,201 2 13,577 2,168 2
Apr-18 13,660 2,178 2 13,768 2,195 2 13,552 2,161 2
May-18 13,641 2,174 2 13,754 2,192 2 13,528 2,156 2
Jun-18 13,562 2,171 2 13,679 2,190 2 13,446 2,152 2
Jul-18 13,533 2,163 2 13,654 2,182 2 13,413 2,144 2
Aug-18 13,468 2,153 2 13,592 2,173 2 13,344 2,133 2
Sep-18 13,486 2,157 2 13,615 2,178 2 13,358 2,137 2
Oct-18 13,571 2,155 2 13,705 2,176 3 13,438 2,134 2
Nov-18 13,686 2,165 2 13,825 2,187 3 13,548 2,143 1
Dec-18 13,812 2,182 2 13,957 2,205 3 13,668 2,159 1
Jan-19 13,854 2,184 2 14,003 2,207 3 13,706 2,160 1
Feb-19 13,854 2,190 2 14,008 2,214 3 13,702 2,166 1
Mar-19 13,856 2,192 2 14,014 2,217 3 13,699 2,167 1
Apr-19 13,837 2,185 2 13,999 2,210 3 13,676 2,159 1
May-19 13,798 2,183 2 13,964 2,209 3 13,634 2,157 1
Jun-19 13,732 2,178 2 13,901 2,204 3 13,564 2,151 1
Jul-19 13,688 2,171 2 13,861 2,198 3 13,517 2,144 1
Aug-19 13,628 2,162 2 13,804 2,190 3 13,454 2,134 1
Sep-19 13,637 2,162 2 13,817 2,190 3 13,459 2,133 1
Oct-19 13,721 2,163 2 13,906 2,192 3 13,537 2,134 1
Nov-19 13,840 2,174 2 14,031 2,204 3 13,651 2,144 1
Dec-19 13,969 2,191 2 14,166 2,222 3 13,774 2,160 1
Jan-20 14,018 2,191 2 14,220 2,223 3 13,818 2,160 1
Feb-20 14,012 2,196 2 14,218 2,229 3 13,808 2,164 1
Mar-20 14,022 2,200 2 14,232 2,233 3 13,814 2,168 1
Apr-20 13,996 2,192 2 14,210 2,226 3 13,784 2,159 1
May-20 13,961 2,191 2 14,179 2,225 3 13,746 2,157 1
Jun-20 13,892 2,186 2 14,113 2,221 3 13,674 2,152 1
Jul-20 13,844 2,179 2 14,068 2,215 3 13,622 2,144 1
Aug-20 13,785 2,170 2 14,013 2,206 3 13,560 2,135 1
Sep-20 13,790 2,171 2 14,022 2,208 3 13,561 2,135 1
Oct-20 13,879 2,171 2 14,117 2,208 3 13,644 2,134 0
Nov-20 13,996 2,182 2 14,241 2,220 4 13,755 2,145 0
Dec-20 14,130 2,199 2 14,381 2,238 4 13,882 2,161 0
Jan-21 14,179 2,201 2 14,436 2,241 4 13,926 2,161 0
Feb-21 14,176 2,205 2 14,437 2,245 4 13,919 2,165 0
Roseburg -
Expected Growth
Roseburg -
High Growth
Roseburg -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 59
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-21 14,187 2,209 2 14,453 2,250 4 13,925 2,168 0
Apr-21 14,162 2,202 2 14,432 2,244 4 13,896 2,160 0
May-21 14,128 2,200 2 14,402 2,242 4 13,859 2,158 0
Jun-21 14,056 2,195 2 14,333 2,238 4 13,784 2,152 0
Jul-21 14,010 2,188 2 14,290 2,232 4 13,734 2,145 0
Aug-21 13,948 2,179 2 14,232 2,223 4 13,669 2,135 0
Sep-21 13,954 2,180 2 14,242 2,225 4 13,671 2,135 0
Oct-21 14,043 2,180 2 14,338 2,225 4 13,753 2,135 -
Nov-21 14,161 2,191 2 14,463 2,237 4 13,865 2,145 -
Dec-21 14,296 2,208 2 14,605 2,255 4 13,992 2,161 -
Jan-22 14,345 2,209 2 14,660 2,258 4 14,036 2,162 -
Feb-22 14,344 2,213 2 14,663 2,262 4 14,030 2,165 -
Mar-22 14,355 2,217 2 14,679 2,267 4 14,037 2,168 -
Apr-22 14,331 2,210 2 14,659 2,261 4 14,009 2,161 -
May-22 14,297 2,208 2 14,629 2,260 4 13,971 2,158 -
Jun-22 14,224 2,203 2 14,559 2,255 4 13,895 2,152 -
Jul-22 14,178 2,196 2 14,517 2,249 4 13,846 2,145 -
Aug-22 14,115 2,188 2 14,457 2,241 4 13,780 2,136 -
Sep-22 14,122 2,188 2 14,469 2,242 4 13,782 2,136 -
Oct-22 14,211 2,188 2 14,565 2,243 5 13,865 2,135 -
Nov-22 14,330 2,200 2 14,691 2,256 5 13,976 2,146 -
Dec-22 14,465 2,217 2 14,835 2,274 5 14,103 2,162 -
Jan-23 14,516 2,218 2 14,892 2,275 5 14,148 2,161 -
Feb-23 14,515 2,223 2 14,896 2,281 5 14,143 2,166 -
Mar-23 14,527 2,226 2 14,913 2,285 5 14,150 2,168 -
Apr-23 14,503 2,219 2 14,893 2,278 5 14,122 2,160 -
May-23 14,469 2,217 2 14,863 2,277 5 14,084 2,158 -
Jun-23 14,397 2,213 2 14,794 2,274 5 14,010 2,153 -
Jul-23 14,350 2,206 2 14,750 2,267 5 13,959 2,146 -
Aug-23 14,288 2,197 2 14,691 2,259 5 13,894 2,136 -
Sep-23 14,294 2,198 2 14,702 2,260 5 13,896 2,136 -
Oct-23 14,383 2,198 2 14,799 2,261 5 13,978 2,136 -
Nov-23 14,502 2,209 2 14,926 2,273 5 14,089 2,146 -
Dec-23 14,637 2,226 2 15,070 2,291 5 14,215 2,162 -
Jan-24 14,688 2,227 2 15,127 2,294 5 14,260 2,162 -
Feb-24 14,688 2,231 2 15,132 2,299 5 14,256 2,165 -
Mar-24 14,700 2,235 2 15,149 2,303 5 14,263 2,169 -
Apr-24 14,676 2,228 2 15,129 2,297 5 14,235 2,161 -
May-24 14,642 2,226 2 15,099 2,296 5 14,197 2,159 -
Jun-24 14,570 2,222 2 15,030 2,292 5 14,123 2,154 -
Roseburg -
Expected Growth
Roseburg -
High Growth
Roseburg -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 60
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Jul-24 14,523 2,214 2 14,986 2,285 5 14,072 2,145 -
Aug-24 14,461 2,206 2 14,927 2,277 5 14,008 2,137 -
Sep-24 14,467 2,206 2 14,938 2,278 5 14,009 2,136 -
Oct-24 14,556 2,207 2 15,035 2,280 6 14,091 2,137 -
Nov-24 14,675 2,218 2 15,163 2,292 6 14,201 2,147 -
Dec-24 14,810 2,235 2 15,307 2,310 6 14,327 2,162 -
Jan-25 14,861 2,236 2 15,365 2,311 6 14,372 2,162 -
Feb-25 14,861 2,241 2 15,370 2,317 6 14,367 2,166 -
Mar-25 14,873 2,244 2 15,387 2,321 6 14,374 2,168 -
Apr-25 14,850 2,237 2 15,368 2,315 6 14,347 2,161 -
May-25 14,816 2,236 2 15,338 2,314 6 14,310 2,159 -
Jun-25 14,743 2,231 2 15,267 2,310 6 14,235 2,154 -
Jul-25 14,696 2,224 2 15,223 2,303 6 14,185 2,146 -
Aug-25 14,633 2,215 2 15,163 2,295 6 14,120 2,137 -
Sep-25 14,639 2,216 2 15,174 2,297 6 14,121 2,137 -
Oct-25 14,728 2,216 2 15,271 2,297 6 14,203 2,137 -
Nov-25 14,847 2,227 2 15,399 2,309 6 14,313 2,147 -
Dec-25 14,982 2,244 2 15,544 2,328 6 14,438 2,162 -
Jan-26 15,032 2,245 2 15,601 2,330 6 14,482 2,163 -
Feb-26 15,032 2,249 2 15,606 2,335 6 14,478 2,166 -
Mar-26 15,044 2,253 2 15,623 2,340 6 14,485 2,169 -
Apr-26 15,020 2,246 2 15,603 2,333 6 14,457 2,162 -
May-26 14,986 2,244 2 15,572 2,332 6 14,420 2,159 -
Jun-26 14,913 2,239 2 15,501 2,327 6 14,345 2,154 -
Jul-26 14,866 2,232 2 15,458 2,321 6 14,295 2,146 -
Aug-26 14,804 2,224 2 15,398 2,313 6 14,231 2,138 -
Sep-26 14,811 2,224 2 15,410 2,314 6 14,233 2,137 -
Oct-26 14,900 2,225 2 15,508 2,316 7 14,314 2,138 -
Nov-26 15,019 2,236 2 15,637 2,328 7 14,423 2,147 -
Dec-26 15,155 2,253 2 15,784 2,347 7 14,549 2,163 -
Jan-27 15,206 2,253 2 15,842 2,348 7 14,593 2,163 -
Feb-27 15,206 2,258 2 15,847 2,354 7 14,589 2,167 -
Mar-27 15,218 2,261 2 15,865 2,358 7 14,595 2,169 -
Apr-27 15,195 2,255 2 15,846 2,352 7 14,569 2,162 -
May-27 15,161 2,253 2 15,816 2,351 7 14,531 2,160 -
Jun-27 15,089 2,248 2 15,746 2,346 7 14,457 2,154 -
Jul-27 15,042 2,241 2 15,702 2,340 7 14,408 2,147 -
Aug-27 14,980 2,232 2 15,642 2,331 7 14,344 2,138 -
Sep-27 14,986 2,233 2 15,653 2,333 7 14,345 2,138 -
Oct-27 15,075 2,233 2 15,751 2,334 7 14,426 2,137 -
Roseburg -
Expected Growth
Roseburg -
High Growth
Roseburg -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 61
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-27 15,194 2,245 2 15,881 2,347 7 14,535 2,148 -
Dec-27 15,330 2,262 2 16,028 2,365 7 14,660 2,164 -
Jan-28 15,381 2,263 2 16,086 2,367 7 14,704 2,163 -
Feb-28 15,381 2,268 2 16,091 2,373 7 14,700 2,167 -
Mar-28 15,393 2,271 2 16,109 2,377 7 14,706 2,170 -
Apr-28 15,370 2,264 2 16,090 2,370 7 14,680 2,162 -
May-28 15,335 2,262 2 16,059 2,369 7 14,641 2,160 -
Jun-28 15,264 2,258 2 15,989 2,365 7 14,569 2,155 -
Jul-28 15,216 2,251 2 15,944 2,359 7 14,519 2,148 -
Aug-28 15,153 2,242 2 15,883 2,350 7 14,454 2,138 -
Sep-28 15,159 2,242 2 15,894 2,351 7 14,456 2,138 -
Oct-28 15,248 2,243 2 15,992 2,352 8 14,536 2,138 -
Nov-28 15,366 2,254 2 16,121 2,365 8 14,644 2,148 -
Dec-28 15,501 2,271 2 16,268 2,383 8 14,768 2,163 -
Jan-29 15,552 2,271 2 16,326 2,384 8 14,812 2,163 -
Feb-29 15,552 2,276 2 16,331 2,390 8 14,808 2,167 -
Mar-29 15,563 2,280 2 16,348 2,395 8 14,813 2,170 -
Apr-29 15,540 2,273 2 16,328 2,389 8 14,787 2,163 -
May-29 15,505 2,271 2 16,297 2,387 8 14,749 2,161 -
Jun-29 15,433 2,266 2 16,226 2,383 8 14,676 2,155 -
Jul-29 15,385 2,259 2 16,180 2,376 8 14,626 2,148 -
Aug-29 15,321 2,250 2 16,117 2,367 8 14,561 2,139 -
Sep-29 15,327 2,251 2 16,128 2,369 8 14,563 2,139 -
Oct-29 15,415 2,251 2 16,226 2,370 8 14,642 2,138 -
Nov-29 15,533 2,262 2 16,355 2,382 8 14,750 2,148 -
Dec-29 15,668 2,279 2 16,502 2,401 8 14,874 2,164 -
Jan-30 15,718 2,281 2 16,559 2,403 8 14,917 2,164 -
Feb-30 15,717 2,285 2 16,563 2,408 8 14,912 2,168 -
Mar-30 15,728 2,289 2 16,579 2,413 8 14,918 2,171 -
Apr-30 15,704 2,282 2 16,559 2,406 8 14,890 2,164 -
May-30 15,669 2,280 2 16,527 2,405 8 14,853 2,161 -
Jun-30 15,596 2,275 2 16,455 2,400 8 14,779 2,156 -
Jul-30 15,547 2,268 2 16,407 2,393 8 14,729 2,148 -
Aug-30 15,482 2,259 2 16,342 2,384 8 14,664 2,139 -
Sep-30 15,486 2,260 2 16,350 2,386 8 14,664 2,140 -
Oct-30 15,572 2,260 2 16,445 2,386 9 14,742 2,139 -
Nov-30 15,689 2,271 2 16,573 2,399 9 14,849 2,149 -
Dec-30 15,822 2,288 2 16,718 2,417 9 14,972 2,165 -
Jan-31 15,870 2,288 2 16,772 2,418 9 15,013 2,165 -
Feb-31 15,868 2,293 2 16,774 2,424 9 15,008 2,169 -
Roseburg -
Expected Growth
Roseburg -
High Growth
Roseburg -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 62
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-31 15,877 2,296 2 16,788 2,428 9 15,013 2,171 -
Apr-31 15,852 2,289 2 16,766 2,421 9 14,985 2,164 -
May-31 15,815 2,287 2 16,731 2,420 9 14,947 2,162 -
Jun-31 15,741 2,282 2 16,656 2,415 9 14,873 2,156 -
Jul-31 15,691 2,275 2 16,607 2,408 9 14,822 2,149 -
Aug-31 15,625 2,266 2 16,541 2,399 9 14,757 2,140 -
Sep-31 15,629 2,266 2 16,549 2,400 9 14,757 2,140 -
Oct-31 15,714 2,267 2 16,643 2,401 9 14,834 2,140 -
Nov-31 15,831 2,278 2 16,771 2,413 9 14,941 2,150 -
Dec-31 15,963 2,295 2 16,915 2,432 9 15,062 2,166 -
Jan-32 16,011 2,296 2 16,970 2,433 9 15,104 2,166 -
Feb-32 16,009 2,300 2 16,971 2,438 9 15,098 2,169 -
Mar-32 16,018 2,304 2 16,985 2,443 9 15,103 2,172 -
Apr-32 15,991 2,297 2 16,960 2,436 9 15,074 2,165 -
May-32 15,954 2,295 2 16,925 2,434 9 15,036 2,163 -
Jun-32 15,879 2,290 2 16,849 2,430 9 14,962 2,157 -
Jul-32 15,829 2,283 2 16,800 2,423 9 14,911 2,150 -
Aug-32 15,763 2,274 2 16,734 2,414 9 14,846 2,141 -
Sep-32 15,767 2,274 2 16,742 2,414 9 14,846 2,141 -
Oct-32 15,852 2,274 2 16,836 2,415 10 14,923 2,140 -
Nov-32 15,968 2,286 2 16,963 2,428 10 15,029 2,151 -
Dec-32 16,100 2,302 2 17,107 2,446 10 15,150 2,166 -
Jan-33 16,148 2,303 2 17,161 2,448 10 15,191 2,167 -
Feb-33 16,145 2,307 2 17,162 2,452 10 15,185 2,170 -
Mar-33 16,154 2,310 2 17,175 2,456 10 15,190 2,172 -
Apr-33 16,128 2,303 2 17,152 2,449 10 15,162 2,165 -
May-33 16,090 2,301 2 17,115 2,448 10 15,123 2,163 -
Jun-33 16,015 2,297 2 17,039 2,444 10 15,049 2,159 -
Jul-33 15,965 2,289 2 16,990 2,436 10 14,999 2,151 -
Aug-33 15,899 2,280 2 16,923 2,427 10 14,934 2,142 -
Sep-33 15,902 2,281 2 16,930 2,429 10 14,933 2,142 -
Oct-33 15,987 2,281 2 17,024 2,429 10 15,010 2,142 -
Nov-33 16,103 2,292 2 17,151 2,441 10 15,116 2,152 -
Dec-33 16,235 2,309 2 17,296 2,460 10 15,236 2,167 -
Jan-34 16,282 2,309 2 17,349 2,461 10 15,277 2,167 -
Feb-34 16,279 2,313 2 17,350 2,466 10 15,271 2,170 -
Mar-34 16,288 2,317 2 17,363 2,470 10 15,276 2,174 -
Apr-34 16,261 2,310 2 17,338 2,464 10 15,247 2,166 -
May-34 16,223 2,308 2 17,301 2,462 10 15,208 2,164 -
Jun-34 16,148 2,303 2 17,225 2,457 10 15,135 2,159 -
Jul-34 16,097 2,296 2 17,174 2,450 10 15,084 2,152 -
Roseburg -
Expected Growth
Roseburg -
High Growth
Roseburg -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 63
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
ROSEBURG

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Aug-34 16,031 2,287 2 17,108 2,441 10 15,019 2,143 -
Sep-34 16,034 2,287 2 17,114 2,442 10 15,018 2,143 -
Oct-34 16,119 2,287 2 17,209 2,442 11 15,095 2,142 -
Nov-34 16,235 2,299 2 17,336 2,455 11 15,200 2,153 -
Dec-34 16,367 2,315 2 17,481 2,473 11 15,321 2,167 -
Jan-35 16,414 2,317 2 17,535 2,475 11 15,361 2,168 -
Feb-35 16,411 2,321 2 17,535 2,480 11 15,355 2,172 -
Mar-35 16,419 2,324 2 17,548 2,484 11 15,360 2,174 -
Apr-35 16,392 2,317 2 17,522 2,477 11 15,331 2,167 -
May-35 16,355 2,315 2 17,487 2,475 11 15,293 2,165 -
Jun-35 16,279 2,310 2 17,409 2,470 11 15,219 2,160 -
Jul-35 16,229 2,303 2 17,359 2,463 11 15,169 2,153 -
Aug-35 16,162 2,294 2 17,291 2,454 11 15,103 2,144 -
Sep-35 16,165 2,295 2 17,298 2,456 11 15,103 2,144 -
Oct-35 16,251 2,295 2 17,394 2,456 11 15,180 2,144 -
Nov-35 16,366 2,306 2 17,521 2,469 11 15,284 2,153 -
Dec-35 16,498 2,323 2 17,666 2,487 11 15,404 2,169 -
Jan-36 16,546 2,323 2 17,721 2,488 11 15,446 2,169 -
Feb-36 16,543 2,327 2 17,721 2,493 11 15,439 2,172 -
Mar-36 16,551 2,331 2 17,734 2,498 11 15,444 2,175 -
Apr-36 16,524 2,324 2 17,709 2,491 11 15,415 2,168 -
May-36 16,487 2,322 2 17,673 2,489 11 15,377 2,166 -
Jun-36 16,411 2,317 2 17,595 2,485 11 15,303 2,161 -
Jul-36 16,361 2,309 2 17,545 2,477 11 15,253 2,153 -
Aug-36 16,294 2,301 2 17,477 2,469 11 15,188 2,145 -
Sep-36 16,297 2,301 2 17,484 2,469 11 15,187 2,145 -
Oct-36 16,382 2,301 2 17,579 2,470 12 15,263 2,144 -
Nov-36 16,498 2,312 2 17,707 2,482 12 15,368 2,154 -
Dec-36 16,630 2,329 2 17,852 2,501 12 15,488 2,169 -
Jan-37 16,677 2,330 2 17,906 2,502 12 15,528 2,170 -
Feb-37 16,674 2,335 2 17,907 2,508 12 15,522 2,174 -
Mar-37 16,682 2,338 2 17,919 2,511 12 15,527 2,176 -
Apr-37 16,655 2,331 2 17,894 2,504 12 15,498 2,169 -
May-37 16,618 2,329 2 17,858 2,503 12 15,461 2,167 -
Jun-37 16,542 2,324 2 17,780 2,498 12 15,387 2,162 -
Jul-37 16,492 2,317 2 17,730 2,491 12 15,337 2,155 -
Aug-37 16,425 2,308 2 17,662 2,482 12 15,271 2,146 -
Sep-37 16,428 2,308 2 17,668 2,482 12 15,271 2,145 -
Oct-37 16,513 2,308 2 17,764 2,483 12 15,347 2,145 -
Nov-37 16,629 2,320 2 17,892 2,496 12 15,451 2,156 -
Dec-37 16,761 2,336 2 18,038 2,514 12 15,571 2,170 -
Roseburg -
Expected Growth
Roseburg -
High Growth
Roseburg -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 64
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-17 14,651 1,776 7 14,754 1,788 7 14,549 1,763 7
Dec-17 14,751 1,777 7 14,860 1,790 7 14,643 1,764 7
Jan-18 14,834 1,784 7 14,949 1,798 7 14,719 1,770 7
Feb-18 14,857 1,787 7 14,978 1,801 7 14,737 1,772 7
Mar-18 14,854 1,783 7 14,980 1,798 7 14,728 1,768 7
Apr-18 14,825 1,778 7 14,957 1,794 7 14,694 1,762 7
May-18 14,786 1,774 7 14,923 1,790 7 14,650 1,758 7
Jun-18 14,705 1,768 7 14,847 1,785 7 14,564 1,751 7
Jul-18 14,617 1,759 7 14,763 1,776 7 14,472 1,742 7
Aug-18 14,544 1,748 7 14,694 1,766 7 14,395 1,730 7
Sep-18 14,548 1,752 7 14,702 1,771 7 14,395 1,733 6
Oct-18 14,695 1,762 7 14,856 1,781 7 14,535 1,743 6
Nov-18 14,841 1,780 7 15,008 1,800 7 14,675 1,760 6
Dec-18 14,961 1,782 7 15,134 1,803 8 14,789 1,761 6
Jan-19 15,031 1,793 7 15,210 1,814 8 14,853 1,772 6
Feb-19 15,045 1,802 7 15,229 1,824 8 14,862 1,780 6
Mar-19 15,038 1,796 7 15,227 1,818 8 14,851 1,773 6
Apr-19 15,011 1,789 7 15,204 1,812 8 14,819 1,766 6
May-19 14,968 1,783 7 15,166 1,806 8 14,772 1,759 6
Jun-19 14,881 1,776 7 15,082 1,800 8 14,682 1,752 6
Jul-19 14,795 1,771 7 15,000 1,795 8 14,592 1,746 6
Aug-19 14,726 1,762 7 14,934 1,787 8 14,520 1,737 6
Sep-19 14,730 1,763 7 14,943 1,788 8 14,519 1,738 6
Oct-19 14,877 1,773 7 15,097 1,799 8 14,660 1,747 6
Nov-19 15,024 1,789 7 15,250 1,816 8 14,800 1,762 6
Dec-19 15,144 1,795 7 15,377 1,822 8 14,914 1,767 6
Jan-20 15,213 1,809 7 15,452 1,837 8 14,977 1,780 6
Feb-20 15,225 1,814 7 15,468 1,843 8 14,984 1,785 6
Mar-20 15,217 1,810 7 15,465 1,839 8 14,972 1,780 6
Apr-20 15,189 1,803 7 15,441 1,832 8 14,940 1,773 6
May-20 15,145 1,800 7 15,401 1,830 8 14,892 1,769 6
Jun-20 15,057 1,793 7 15,316 1,823 8 14,801 1,762 6
Jul-20 14,973 1,787 7 15,236 1,818 8 14,714 1,756 6
Aug-20 14,905 1,782 7 15,171 1,813 8 14,642 1,750 5
Sep-20 14,910 1,778 7 15,181 1,810 8 14,642 1,746 5
Oct-20 15,057 1,785 7 15,336 1,818 8 14,782 1,752 5
Nov-20 15,205 1,805 7 15,492 1,839 8 14,923 1,771 5
Dec-20 15,325 1,809 7 15,619 1,843 9 15,035 1,774 5
Jan-21 15,394 1,820 7 15,694 1,856 9 15,098 1,785 5
Feb-21 15,406 1,824 7 15,712 1,860 9 15,105 1,789 5
Klamath Falls -
Low Growth
Klamath Falls -
Expected Growth
Klamath Falls -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 65
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-21 15,399 1,820 7 15,709 1,857 9 15,093 1,784 5
Apr-21 15,371 1,814 7 15,686 1,851 9 15,061 1,778 5
May-21 15,328 1,810 7 15,647 1,848 9 15,014 1,773 5
Jun-21 15,241 1,804 7 15,563 1,842 9 14,924 1,767 5
Jul-21 15,157 1,797 7 15,482 1,836 9 14,837 1,759 5
Aug-21 15,089 1,790 7 15,418 1,829 9 14,766 1,752 5
Sep-21 15,094 1,789 7 15,428 1,829 9 14,766 1,750 5
Oct-21 15,241 1,797 7 15,583 1,838 9 14,905 1,758 5
Nov-21 15,390 1,816 7 15,741 1,858 9 15,046 1,776 5
Dec-21 15,510 1,819 7 15,869 1,861 9 15,158 1,778 5
Jan-22 15,578 1,831 7 15,944 1,874 9 15,219 1,789 5
Feb-22 15,591 1,837 7 15,962 1,881 9 15,227 1,794 5
Mar-22 15,583 1,832 7 15,959 1,876 9 15,214 1,789 5
Apr-22 15,556 1,825 7 15,936 1,870 9 15,183 1,781 5
May-22 15,513 1,821 7 15,898 1,866 9 15,136 1,777 5
Jun-22 15,426 1,815 7 15,814 1,860 9 15,046 1,770 5
Jul-22 15,342 1,808 7 15,733 1,854 9 14,960 1,763 5
Aug-22 15,275 1,801 7 15,669 1,847 9 14,889 1,755 4
Sep-22 15,280 1,800 7 15,679 1,847 9 14,889 1,754 4
Oct-22 15,427 1,809 7 15,836 1,857 9 15,027 1,762 4
Nov-22 15,576 1,827 7 15,994 1,876 9 15,168 1,779 4
Dec-22 15,696 1,831 7 16,122 1,881 9 15,279 1,782 4
Jan-23 15,765 1,844 7 16,199 1,894 10 15,341 1,794 4
Feb-23 15,777 1,849 7 16,216 1,900 10 15,348 1,798 4
Mar-23 15,771 1,844 7 16,216 1,896 10 15,337 1,793 4
Apr-23 15,744 1,838 7 16,193 1,890 10 15,306 1,786 4
May-23 15,701 1,834 7 16,154 1,886 10 15,259 1,782 4
Jun-23 15,614 1,827 7 16,070 1,880 10 15,169 1,775 4
Jul-23 15,530 1,821 7 15,989 1,874 10 15,083 1,768 4
Aug-23 15,463 1,814 7 15,925 1,868 10 15,013 1,761 4
Sep-23 15,468 1,813 7 15,935 1,867 10 15,013 1,759 4
Oct-23 15,615 1,821 7 16,092 1,876 10 15,150 1,766 4
Nov-23 15,764 1,840 7 16,251 1,896 10 15,290 1,784 4
Dec-23 15,884 1,843 7 16,380 1,900 10 15,401 1,787 4
Jan-24 15,953 1,855 7 16,457 1,914 10 15,463 1,798 4
Feb-24 15,965 1,860 7 16,474 1,920 10 15,469 1,803 4
Mar-24 15,958 1,855 7 16,473 1,915 10 15,458 1,797 4
Apr-24 15,931 1,849 7 16,450 1,910 10 15,426 1,791 4
May-24 15,888 1,845 7 16,411 1,906 10 15,380 1,786 4
Jun-24 15,801 1,839 7 16,327 1,900 10 15,290 1,780 4
Klamath Falls -
Low Growth
Klamath Falls -
Expected Growth
Klamath Falls -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 66
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Jul-24 15,717 1,832 7 16,245 1,894 10 15,204 1,772 4
Aug-24 15,650 1,826 7 16,181 1,888 10 15,134 1,766 3
Sep-24 15,654 1,824 7 16,190 1,887 10 15,133 1,764 3
Oct-24 15,802 1,832 7 16,349 1,896 10 15,272 1,771 3
Nov-24 15,950 1,851 7 16,507 1,916 10 15,410 1,789 3
Dec-24 16,070 1,855 7 16,637 1,921 11 15,521 1,792 3
Jan-25 16,139 1,867 7 16,713 1,933 11 15,582 1,803 3
Feb-25 16,151 1,872 7 16,731 1,939 11 15,589 1,807 3
Mar-25 16,144 1,868 7 16,729 1,936 11 15,577 1,802 3
Apr-25 16,117 1,861 7 16,707 1,929 11 15,546 1,795 3
May-25 16,074 1,857 7 16,667 1,926 11 15,500 1,791 3
Jun-25 15,987 1,850 7 16,583 1,919 11 15,411 1,783 3
Jul-25 15,903 1,844 7 16,501 1,913 11 15,325 1,777 3
Aug-25 15,835 1,837 7 16,435 1,907 11 15,255 1,770 3
Sep-25 15,840 1,836 7 16,446 1,906 11 15,255 1,768 3
Oct-25 15,987 1,844 7 16,603 1,915 11 15,391 1,775 3
Nov-25 16,135 1,863 7 16,762 1,935 11 15,529 1,793 3
Dec-25 16,255 1,867 7 16,892 1,940 11 15,640 1,796 3
Jan-26 16,323 1,879 7 16,968 1,953 11 15,700 1,807 3
Feb-26 16,335 1,884 7 16,986 1,959 11 15,707 1,811 3
Mar-26 16,328 1,880 7 16,984 1,955 11 15,695 1,807 3
Apr-26 16,301 1,873 7 16,961 1,948 11 15,664 1,799 3
May-26 16,258 1,869 7 16,922 1,945 11 15,618 1,795 3
Jun-26 16,170 1,863 7 16,835 1,939 11 15,529 1,789 3
Jul-26 16,086 1,856 7 16,753 1,933 11 15,443 1,781 3
Aug-26 16,018 1,849 7 16,687 1,926 11 15,373 1,774 2
Sep-26 16,022 1,848 7 16,696 1,925 11 15,373 1,773 2
Oct-26 16,169 1,856 7 16,854 1,934 11 15,509 1,780 2
Nov-26 16,317 1,875 7 17,014 1,955 11 15,646 1,798 2
Dec-26 16,436 1,879 7 17,143 1,959 12 15,756 1,801 2
Jan-27 16,504 1,890 7 17,219 1,972 12 15,816 1,811 2
Feb-27 16,516 1,895 7 17,237 1,978 12 15,823 1,816 2
Mar-27 16,508 1,891 7 17,233 1,974 12 15,811 1,811 2
Apr-27 16,481 1,884 7 17,210 1,967 12 15,780 1,804 2
May-27 16,437 1,880 7 17,169 1,964 12 15,733 1,800 2
Jun-27 16,349 1,874 7 17,083 1,958 12 15,644 1,793 2
Jul-27 16,265 1,867 7 17,000 1,951 12 15,560 1,786 2
Aug-27 16,196 1,861 7 16,932 1,946 12 15,489 1,780 2
Sep-27 16,200 1,859 7 16,941 1,944 12 15,489 1,777 2
Oct-27 16,347 1,867 7 17,100 1,953 12 15,625 1,785 2
Klamath Falls -
Low Growth
Klamath Falls -
Expected Growth
Klamath Falls -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 67
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-27 16,494 1,886 7 17,259 1,974 12 15,761 1,802 2
Dec-27 16,613 1,890 7 17,388 1,978 12 15,870 1,806 2
Jan-28 16,681 1,902 7 17,464 1,991 12 15,930 1,816 2
Feb-28 16,692 1,907 7 17,481 1,997 12 15,936 1,820 2
Mar-28 16,684 1,903 7 17,477 1,993 12 15,924 1,816 2
Apr-28 16,656 1,896 7 17,453 1,986 12 15,893 1,809 2
May-28 16,613 1,893 7 17,413 1,984 12 15,847 1,805 2
Jun-28 16,524 1,886 7 17,324 1,977 12 15,758 1,798 2
Jul-28 16,439 1,879 7 17,239 1,970 12 15,673 1,791 2
Aug-28 16,370 1,873 7 17,171 1,964 12 15,603 1,785 1
Sep-28 16,373 1,871 7 17,179 1,963 12 15,602 1,783 1
Oct-28 16,519 1,880 7 17,336 1,973 12 15,737 1,791 1
Nov-28 16,665 1,898 7 17,494 1,992 12 15,872 1,807 1
Dec-28 16,784 1,902 7 17,623 1,997 12 15,982 1,811 1
Jan-29 16,851 1,913 7 17,698 2,010 13 16,041 1,821 1
Feb-29 16,861 1,919 7 17,713 2,016 13 16,047 1,827 1
Mar-29 16,852 1,914 7 17,708 2,012 13 16,034 1,821 1
Apr-29 16,824 1,908 7 17,683 2,006 13 16,004 1,815 1
May-29 16,779 1,904 7 17,640 2,002 13 15,957 1,811 1
Jun-29 16,690 1,897 7 17,551 1,995 13 15,868 1,804 1
Jul-29 16,604 1,890 7 17,465 1,988 13 15,783 1,797 1
Aug-29 16,534 1,884 7 17,395 1,982 13 15,713 1,791 1
Sep-29 16,536 1,882 7 17,401 1,981 13 15,711 1,788 1
Oct-29 16,681 1,891 7 17,557 1,991 13 15,845 1,797 1
Nov-29 16,827 1,909 7 17,715 2,010 13 15,981 1,813 1
Dec-29 16,945 1,913 7 17,843 2,015 13 16,089 1,817 1
Jan-30 17,011 1,925 7 17,917 2,027 13 16,148 1,827 1
Feb-30 17,021 1,931 7 17,931 2,034 13 16,154 1,833 1
Mar-30 17,012 1,926 7 17,926 2,029 13 16,142 1,827 1
Apr-30 16,982 1,920 7 17,898 2,023 13 16,110 1,821 1
May-30 16,937 1,916 7 17,855 2,020 13 16,063 1,817 1
Jun-30 16,847 1,909 7 17,764 2,013 13 15,975 1,810 1
Jul-30 16,761 1,903 7 17,677 2,007 13 15,890 1,804 1
Aug-30 16,691 1,896 7 17,607 2,000 13 15,820 1,797 0
Sep-30 16,693 1,895 7 17,613 1,999 13 15,818 1,796 0
Oct-30 16,838 1,903 7 17,770 2,008 13 15,952 1,803 0
Nov-30 16,983 1,922 7 17,926 2,029 13 16,086 1,820 0
Dec-30 17,101 1,925 7 18,055 2,032 13 16,194 1,823 0
Jan-31 17,167 1,938 7 18,129 2,046 14 16,253 1,834 0
Feb-31 17,177 1,943 7 18,143 2,052 14 16,259 1,839 0
Klamath Falls -
Low Growth
Klamath Falls -
Expected Growth
Klamath Falls -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 68
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-31 17,167 1,938 7 18,136 2,047 14 16,246 1,834 0
Apr-31 17,137 1,932 7 18,109 2,041 14 16,214 1,828 0
May-31 17,092 1,928 7 18,065 2,037 14 16,168 1,823 0
Jun-31 17,002 1,921 7 17,974 2,030 14 16,080 1,816 0
Jul-31 16,916 1,915 7 17,887 2,024 14 15,995 1,810 0
Aug-31 16,846 1,908 7 17,817 2,018 14 15,925 1,803 -
Sep-31 16,849 1,907 7 17,824 2,017 14 15,924 1,802 -
Oct-31 16,994 1,915 7 17,981 2,026 14 16,058 1,809 -
Nov-31 17,140 1,934 7 18,140 2,046 14 16,192 1,827 -
Dec-31 17,258 1,937 7 18,269 2,050 14 16,300 1,829 -
Jan-32 17,324 1,949 7 18,343 2,064 14 16,358 1,841 -
Feb-32 17,334 1,954 7 18,358 2,070 14 16,364 1,845 -
Mar-32 17,325 1,949 7 18,352 2,065 14 16,352 1,840 -
Apr-32 17,295 1,943 7 18,325 2,059 14 16,320 1,834 -
May-32 17,250 1,939 7 18,281 2,055 14 16,274 1,829 -
Jun-32 17,160 1,932 7 18,190 2,048 14 16,185 1,822 -
Jul-32 17,075 1,926 7 18,104 2,042 14 16,101 1,816 -
Aug-32 17,005 1,919 7 18,034 2,035 14 16,032 1,809 -
Sep-32 17,007 1,918 7 18,040 2,035 14 16,030 1,808 -
Oct-32 17,153 1,926 7 18,199 2,044 14 16,164 1,815 -
Nov-32 17,299 1,945 7 18,358 2,064 14 16,297 1,833 -
Dec-32 17,417 1,949 7 18,488 2,069 14 16,405 1,836 -
Jan-33 17,483 1,961 7 18,562 2,082 15 16,463 1,846 -
Feb-33 17,493 1,966 7 18,577 2,088 15 16,469 1,851 -
Mar-33 17,484 1,962 7 18,572 2,084 15 16,457 1,847 -
Apr-33 17,455 1,955 7 18,545 2,077 15 16,426 1,840 -
May-33 17,409 1,951 7 18,500 2,073 15 16,379 1,835 -
Jun-33 17,320 1,945 7 18,410 2,067 15 16,291 1,829 -
Jul-33 17,234 1,938 7 18,323 2,060 15 16,206 1,822 -
Aug-33 17,165 1,931 7 18,254 2,053 15 16,138 1,815 -
Sep-33 17,167 1,930 7 18,260 2,053 15 16,136 1,814 -
Oct-33 17,312 1,938 7 18,419 2,062 15 16,269 1,821 -
Nov-33 17,459 1,957 7 18,579 2,082 15 16,403 1,838 -
Dec-33 17,576 1,961 7 18,708 2,087 15 16,509 1,842 -
Jan-34 17,643 1,972 7 18,784 2,100 15 16,568 1,852 -
Feb-34 17,653 1,977 7 18,799 2,106 15 16,574 1,857 -
Mar-34 17,644 1,973 7 18,793 2,102 15 16,561 1,852 -
Apr-34 17,615 1,966 7 18,767 2,095 15 16,530 1,845 -
May-34 17,570 1,962 7 18,723 2,091 15 16,484 1,841 -
Jun-34 17,480 1,956 7 18,632 2,085 15 16,396 1,835 -
Jul-34 17,395 1,949 7 18,545 2,078 15 16,313 1,828 -
Klamath Falls -
Low Growth
Klamath Falls -
Expected Growth
Klamath Falls -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 69
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
KLAMATH FALLS

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Aug-34 17,325 1,943 7 18,475 2,072 15 16,243 1,822 -
Sep-34 17,327 1,941 7 18,481 2,071 15 16,242 1,820 -
Oct-34 17,472 1,949 7 18,640 2,080 15 16,374 1,827 -
Nov-34 17,618 1,968 7 18,800 2,101 15 16,507 1,844 -
Dec-34 17,736 1,972 7 18,930 2,105 15 16,614 1,848 -
Jan-35 17,802 1,984 7 19,005 2,118 16 16,672 1,858 -
Feb-35 17,812 1,989 7 19,020 2,124 16 16,677 1,862 -
Mar-35 17,803 1,985 7 19,014 2,120 16 16,665 1,858 -
Apr-35 17,774 1,978 7 18,988 2,113 16 16,634 1,851 -
May-35 17,728 1,974 7 18,943 2,109 16 16,588 1,847 -
Jun-35 17,639 1,968 7 18,852 2,103 16 16,501 1,841 -
Jul-35 17,553 1,961 7 18,764 2,096 16 16,416 1,834 -
Aug-35 17,484 1,955 7 18,695 2,091 16 16,348 1,828 -
Sep-35 17,486 1,953 7 18,701 2,089 16 16,346 1,826 -
Oct-35 17,632 1,961 7 18,862 2,098 16 16,479 1,833 -
Nov-35 17,778 1,980 7 19,022 2,119 16 16,611 1,850 -
Dec-35 17,896 1,984 7 19,153 2,123 16 16,718 1,853 -
Jan-36 17,962 1,996 7 19,228 2,136 16 16,775 1,864 -
Feb-36 17,973 2,001 7 19,244 2,142 16 16,782 1,868 -
Mar-36 17,963 1,997 7 19,238 2,139 16 16,769 1,864 -
Apr-36 17,934 1,990 7 19,212 2,132 16 16,738 1,857 -
May-36 17,889 1,987 7 19,168 2,129 16 16,692 1,854 -
Jun-36 17,800 1,980 7 19,077 2,122 16 16,605 1,847 -
Jul-36 17,714 1,973 7 18,989 2,115 16 16,521 1,840 -
Aug-36 17,645 1,967 7 18,919 2,109 16 16,453 1,834 -
Sep-36 17,647 1,965 7 18,926 2,107 16 16,451 1,832 -
Oct-36 17,792 1,974 7 19,086 2,117 16 16,582 1,840 -
Nov-36 17,939 1,992 7 19,248 2,137 16 16,715 1,856 -
Dec-36 18,056 1,996 7 19,378 2,142 16 16,821 1,859 -
Jan-37 18,123 2,008 7 19,454 2,155 17 16,879 1,870 -
Feb-37 18,133 2,014 7 19,469 2,162 17 16,885 1,875 -
Mar-37 18,124 2,009 7 19,464 2,157 17 16,872 1,870 -
Apr-37 18,095 2,003 7 19,437 2,151 17 16,842 1,864 -
May-37 18,049 1,999 7 19,392 2,147 17 16,795 1,860 -
Jun-37 17,960 1,992 7 19,301 2,140 17 16,708 1,853 -
Jul-37 17,874 1,985 7 19,213 2,133 17 16,625 1,846 -
Aug-37 17,805 1,979 7 19,143 2,127 17 16,557 1,840 -
Sep-37 17,807 1,977 7 19,149 2,126 17 16,555 1,838 -
Oct-37 17,952 1,986 7 19,310 2,136 17 16,686 1,845 -
Nov-37 18,099 2,004 7 19,472 2,156 17 16,819 1,862 -
Dec-37 18,216 2,008 7 19,603 2,160 17 16,923 1,865 -
Klamath Falls -
Low Growth
Klamath Falls -
Expected Growth
Klamath Falls -
High Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 70
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-17 6,649 920 2 6,698 926 2 6,600 913 2
Dec-17 6,692 927 1 6,744 934 1 6,640 919 1
Jan-18 6,726 929 1 6,781 937 1 6,671 922 1
Feb-18 6,727 933 2 6,784 941 2 6,670 925 2
Mar-18 6,718 933 1 6,778 942 1 6,658 925 1
Apr-18 6,703 932 1 6,765 941 1 6,641 924 1
May-18 6,695 932 1 6,760 941 1 6,630 923 1
Jun-18 6,656 927 1 6,723 936 1 6,589 918 1
Jul-18 6,617 925 2 6,686 934 2 6,548 915 2
Aug-18 6,586 926 3 6,657 936 3 6,516 916 3
Sep-18 6,580 923 6 6,653 933 6 6,507 912 6
Oct-18 6,620 924 6 6,696 934 6 6,545 913 6
Nov-18 6,693 925 3 6,772 936 3 6,615 914 3
Dec-18 6,738 932 2 6,819 943 2 6,657 921 2
Jan-19 6,769 936 1 6,853 947 2 6,686 924 1
Feb-19 6,769 937 2 6,855 949 2 6,683 925 1
Mar-19 6,760 936 1 6,848 948 1 6,672 924 0
Apr-19 6,742 936 1 6,832 949 2 6,652 924 1
May-19 6,732 935 1 6,825 948 2 6,640 922 1
Jun-19 6,695 932 1 6,789 945 2 6,602 919 1
Jul-19 6,648 927 2 6,744 940 2 6,553 914 1
Aug-19 6,620 928 3 6,717 942 3 6,524 915 2
Sep-19 6,613 927 7 6,712 940 7 6,515 913 6
Oct-19 6,660 929 6 6,762 943 6 6,559 915 5
Nov-19 6,733 929 3 6,838 944 4 6,629 915 3
Dec-19 6,780 936 2 6,888 951 2 6,673 921 1
Jan-20 6,811 940 1 6,921 955 2 6,702 925 0
Feb-20 6,810 943 2 6,922 958 3 6,699 927 1
Mar-20 6,799 941 1 6,913 957 2 6,686 926 -
Apr-20 6,782 941 1 6,898 957 2 6,667 925 0
May-20 6,768 940 1 6,886 956 2 6,652 923 0
Jun-20 6,731 937 1 6,850 953 2 6,613 920 0
Jul-20 6,682 933 2 6,802 950 3 6,563 916 1
Aug-20 6,656 933 3 6,778 950 4 6,536 916 2
Sep-20 6,648 931 7 6,772 948 7 6,526 914 5
Oct-20 6,698 933 6 6,825 951 7 6,573 916 5
Nov-20 6,772 934 4 6,902 952 4 6,644 917 2
Dec-20 6,820 941 2 6,953 959 3 6,689 923 1
Jan-21 6,850 944 1 6,986 963 3 6,716 926 -
Feb-21 6,850 947 2 6,988 966 3 6,714 928 -
La Grande -
Expected Growth
La Grande -
High Growth
La Grande -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 71
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-21 6,838 946 1 6,978 965 2 6,701 927 -
Apr-21 6,820 946 1 6,961 966 3 6,681 927 -
May-21 6,806 944 1 6,949 964 3 6,665 925 -
Jun-21 6,768 941 1 6,912 961 3 6,626 921 -
Jul-21 6,718 937 2 6,863 957 3 6,575 917 0
Aug-21 6,693 938 3 6,840 959 4 6,549 918 1
Sep-21 6,685 936 7 6,834 957 8 6,539 915 5
Oct-21 6,736 938 6 6,888 959 7 6,587 917 4
Nov-21 6,810 939 4 6,965 960 5 6,658 918 2
Dec-21 6,859 946 2 7,017 967 3 6,704 924 0
Jan-22 6,889 949 1 7,050 971 3 6,731 927 -
Feb-22 6,889 952 2 7,052 974 4 6,729 929 -
Mar-22 6,877 950 1 7,042 973 3 6,715 928 -
Apr-22 6,858 950 1 7,024 974 3 6,695 928 -
May-22 6,843 949 1 7,011 972 3 6,678 926 -
Jun-22 6,805 946 1 6,974 970 3 6,639 923 -
Jul-22 6,755 942 2 6,925 965 4 6,589 919 -
Aug-22 6,730 943 3 6,901 967 5 6,562 919 1
Sep-22 6,722 940 7 6,895 965 8 6,553 917 4
Oct-22 6,773 943 6 6,949 967 8 6,601 919 4
Nov-22 6,848 943 4 7,028 968 5 6,672 919 1
Dec-22 6,897 950 2 7,080 975 4 6,718 926 -
Jan-23 6,927 954 1 7,113 979 4 6,745 929 -
Feb-23 6,927 956 2 7,115 982 4 6,743 931 -
Mar-23 6,914 955 1 7,104 981 3 6,729 929 -
Apr-23 6,896 955 1 7,087 982 4 6,709 929 -
May-23 6,880 954 1 7,073 980 4 6,692 927 -
Jun-23 6,842 951 1 7,036 978 4 6,653 924 -
Jul-23 6,792 946 2 6,986 973 4 6,603 920 -
Aug-23 6,767 947 3 6,962 975 5 6,577 921 0
Sep-23 6,759 945 7 6,956 972 9 6,567 918 4
Oct-23 6,811 947 6 7,011 975 8 6,616 920 3
Nov-23 6,885 948 4 7,089 976 6 6,686 921 1
Dec-23 6,934 955 2 7,141 983 4 6,732 927 -
Jan-24 6,964 958 1 7,174 987 4 6,759 930 -
Feb-24 6,964 961 2 7,176 990 5 6,758 932 -
Mar-24 6,952 960 1 7,165 989 4 6,744 931 -
Apr-24 6,932 960 1 7,147 990 4 6,723 931 -
May-24 6,917 958 1 7,133 988 4 6,707 929 -
Jun-24 6,878 955 1 7,095 985 4 6,667 926 -
La Grande -
Expected Growth
La Grande -
High Growth
La Grande -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 72
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Jul-24 6,828 951 2 7,045 981 5 6,617 922 -
Aug-24 6,803 952 3 7,021 982 6 6,591 922 -
Sep-24 6,795 950 7 7,014 980 9 6,582 920 3
Oct-24 6,847 952 6 7,070 983 9 6,631 922 3
Nov-24 6,922 953 4 7,149 984 6 6,702 922 0
Dec-24 6,970 960 2 7,200 991 5 6,747 929 -
Jan-25 7,001 963 1 7,234 995 5 6,775 932 -
Feb-25 7,000 965 2 7,234 998 5 6,772 934 -
Mar-25 6,988 964 1 7,224 997 4 6,759 933 -
Apr-25 6,969 964 1 7,206 997 5 6,739 933 -
May-25 6,953 963 1 7,191 996 5 6,722 931 -
Jun-25 6,914 960 1 7,152 993 5 6,683 928 -
Jul-25 6,864 956 2 7,102 989 5 6,633 924 -
Aug-25 6,839 957 3 7,078 990 6 6,607 924 -
Sep-25 6,831 954 7 7,071 988 10 6,598 922 3
Oct-25 6,882 957 6 7,125 990 9 6,646 924 2
Nov-25 6,957 957 4 7,204 991 7 6,717 924 -
Dec-25 7,006 964 2 7,257 999 5 6,763 931 -
Jan-26 7,036 968 1 7,289 1,003 5 6,791 934 -
Feb-26 7,035 970 2 7,290 1,005 6 6,788 936 -
Mar-26 7,023 969 1 7,279 1,004 5 6,775 935 -
Apr-26 7,003 969 1 7,260 1,005 5 6,755 935 -
May-26 6,987 967 1 7,244 1,003 5 6,738 933 -
Jun-26 6,949 965 1 7,207 1,000 5 6,700 930 -
Jul-26 6,899 960 2 7,157 996 6 6,650 926 -
Aug-26 6,874 961 3 7,133 997 7 6,624 926 -
Sep-26 6,866 959 7 7,126 995 10 6,614 924 2
Oct-26 6,918 961 6 7,182 998 10 6,663 926 2
Nov-26 6,993 962 4 7,262 999 7 6,733 926 -
Dec-26 7,042 969 2 7,315 1,006 6 6,779 933 -
Jan-27 7,072 972 1 7,348 1,010 6 6,806 936 -
Feb-27 7,071 975 2 7,349 1,013 6 6,803 938 -
Mar-27 7,059 974 1 7,338 1,012 5 6,789 936 -
Apr-27 7,040 974 1 7,320 1,013 6 6,769 936 -
May-27 7,024 972 1 7,306 1,011 6 6,752 935 -
Jun-27 6,986 969 1 7,268 1,008 6 6,714 931 -
Jul-27 6,936 965 2 7,219 1,004 6 6,663 927 -
Aug-27 6,911 966 3 7,195 1,006 7 6,637 928 -
Sep-27 6,904 964 7 7,190 1,004 11 6,628 925 2
Oct-27 6,956 966 6 7,247 1,006 10 6,676 927 1
La Grande -
Expected Growth
La Grande -
High Growth
La Grande -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 73
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Nov-27 7,031 967 4 7,328 1,007 8 6,745 927 -
Dec-27 7,080 973 2 7,381 1,015 6 6,790 934 -
Jan-28 7,111 977 1 7,416 1,019 6 6,817 937 -
Feb-28 7,111 979 2 7,419 1,022 7 6,815 939 -
Mar-28 7,099 978 1 7,409 1,021 6 6,801 937 -
Apr-28 7,080 978 1 7,391 1,021 6 6,781 937 -
May-28 7,064 977 1 7,377 1,020 6 6,763 935 -
Jun-28 7,026 974 1 7,340 1,017 6 6,724 932 -
Jul-28 6,977 970 2 7,292 1,013 7 6,675 928 -
Aug-28 6,952 971 3 7,268 1,015 8 6,648 928 -
Sep-28 6,945 968 7 7,264 1,013 11 6,639 926 1
Oct-28 6,997 971 6 7,321 1,016 11 6,686 928 1
Nov-28 7,072 971 4 7,402 1,017 8 6,755 928 -
Dec-28 7,122 978 2 7,457 1,024 7 6,801 934 -
Jan-29 7,153 982 1 7,493 1,028 7 6,828 937 -
Feb-29 7,152 984 2 7,494 1,031 7 6,824 939 -
Mar-29 7,141 983 1 7,486 1,030 6 6,811 937 -
Apr-29 7,122 983 1 7,469 1,031 7 6,790 937 -
May-29 7,106 981 1 7,455 1,030 7 6,772 935 -
Jun-29 7,068 979 1 7,418 1,027 7 6,734 932 -
Jul-29 7,019 974 2 7,369 1,023 7 6,685 928 -
Aug-29 6,994 975 3 7,345 1,024 8 6,658 928 -
Sep-29 6,987 973 7 7,340 1,022 12 6,649 926 1
Oct-29 7,039 975 6 7,398 1,025 11 6,697 928 0
Nov-29 7,114 976 4 7,479 1,026 9 6,766 928 -
Dec-29 7,163 983 2 7,533 1,034 7 6,810 934 -
Jan-30 7,194 986 1 7,568 1,038 7 6,837 937 -
Feb-30 7,194 989 2 7,571 1,041 8 6,835 939 -
Mar-30 7,182 988 1 7,561 1,040 7 6,821 938 -
Apr-30 7,163 988 1 7,544 1,040 7 6,800 938 -
May-30 7,147 986 1 7,529 1,039 7 6,783 936 -
Jun-30 7,109 983 1 7,492 1,036 7 6,744 933 -
Jul-30 7,059 979 2 7,442 1,032 8 6,695 928 -
Aug-30 7,034 980 3 7,417 1,033 9 6,669 929 -
Sep-30 7,027 978 7 7,412 1,031 12 6,660 927 0
Oct-30 7,079 980 6 7,469 1,034 12 6,708 928 -
Nov-30 7,154 981 4 7,551 1,035 9 6,777 929 -
Dec-30 7,203 987 2 7,605 1,043 8 6,821 935 -
Jan-31 7,234 991 1 7,640 1,047 8 6,848 938 -
Feb-31 7,233 993 2 7,641 1,049 8 6,845 940 -
La Grande -
Expected Growth
La Grande -
High Growth
La Grande -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 74
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Mar-31 7,221 992 1 7,631 1,048 7 6,832 939 -
Apr-31 7,202 992 1 7,613 1,049 8 6,812 939 -
May-31 7,186 991 1 7,598 1,048 8 6,795 937 -
Jun-31 7,148 988 1 7,561 1,045 8 6,757 934 -
Jul-31 7,098 984 2 7,510 1,041 8 6,707 929 -
Aug-31 7,073 984 3 7,485 1,042 9 6,682 930 -
Sep-31 7,066 982 7 7,480 1,040 13 6,673 928 -
Oct-31 7,118 985 6 7,537 1,043 12 6,721 930 -
Nov-31 7,193 985 4 7,619 1,044 10 6,790 930 -
Dec-31 7,242 992 2 7,673 1,051 8 6,834 936 -
Jan-32 7,272 996 1 7,707 1,055 8 6,860 939 -
Feb-32 7,272 998 2 7,709 1,058 9 6,859 941 -
Mar-32 7,259 997 1 7,697 1,057 8 6,844 940 -
Apr-32 7,240 997 1 7,679 1,057 8 6,825 940 -
May-32 7,224 995 1 7,664 1,056 8 6,808 938 -
Jun-32 7,186 992 1 7,626 1,053 8 6,770 935 -
Jul-32 7,136 988 2 7,575 1,049 9 6,721 931 -
Aug-32 7,111 989 3 7,550 1,050 10 6,696 931 -
Sep-32 7,103 987 7 7,544 1,048 13 6,687 929 -
Oct-32 7,155 989 6 7,601 1,051 13 6,734 931 -
Nov-32 7,230 990 4 7,682 1,052 10 6,803 931 -
Dec-32 7,279 997 2 7,736 1,059 9 6,847 938 -
Jan-33 7,309 1,000 1 7,770 1,063 9 6,874 941 -
Feb-33 7,309 1,003 2 7,772 1,066 9 6,872 943 -
Mar-33 7,296 1,001 1 7,760 1,065 8 6,858 941 -
Apr-33 7,277 1,002 1 7,742 1,066 9 6,838 941 -
May-33 7,261 1,000 1 7,727 1,064 9 6,822 940 -
Jun-33 7,223 997 1 7,688 1,061 9 6,784 937 -
Jul-33 7,173 993 2 7,637 1,057 9 6,736 932 -
Aug-33 7,147 994 3 7,611 1,058 10 6,710 933 -
Sep-33 7,140 991 7 7,605 1,056 14 6,702 931 -
Oct-33 7,191 994 6 7,661 1,059 13 6,749 933 -
Nov-33 7,266 995 4 7,742 1,060 11 6,818 933 -
Dec-33 7,315 1,001 2 7,796 1,067 9 6,862 939 -
Jan-34 7,345 1,005 1 7,829 1,071 9 6,889 943 -
Feb-34 7,344 1,007 2 7,830 1,074 10 6,887 944 -
Mar-34 7,332 1,006 1 7,819 1,073 9 6,874 943 -
Apr-34 7,312 1,006 1 7,799 1,073 9 6,854 943 -
May-34 7,296 1,005 1 7,784 1,072 9 6,837 942 -
Jun-34 7,258 1,002 1 7,745 1,069 9 6,800 939 -
Jul-34 7,208 998 2 7,693 1,065 10 6,752 934 -
La Grande -
Expected Growth
La Grande -
High Growth
La Grande -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 75
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.2: CUSTOMER FORECASTS BY REGION
LA GRANDE

Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Residential
Customers
Commercial
Customers
Industrial
Customers
Aug-34 7,182 998 3 7,667 1,066 11 6,726 935 -
Sep-34 7,175 996 7 7,661 1,064 14 6,719 933 -
Oct-34 7,226 998 6 7,717 1,066 14 6,765 935 -
Nov-34 7,301 999 4 7,798 1,067 11 6,834 935 -
Dec-34 7,349 1,006 2 7,851 1,075 10 6,877 941 -
Jan-35 7,380 1,010 1 7,886 1,079 10 6,905 945 -
Feb-35 7,379 1,012 2 7,886 1,082 10 6,903 947 -
Mar-35 7,366 1,011 1 7,874 1,081 9 6,889 946 -
Apr-35 7,347 1,011 1 7,855 1,081 10 6,870 945 -
May-35 7,331 1,009 1 7,840 1,079 10 6,854 943 -
Jun-35 7,292 1,006 1 7,800 1,076 10 6,816 940 -
Jul-35 7,242 1,002 2 7,747 1,072 10 6,768 936 -
Aug-35 7,216 1,003 3 7,721 1,073 11 6,743 937 -
Sep-35 7,209 1,001 7 7,715 1,071 15 6,735 935 -
Oct-35 7,260 1,003 6 7,771 1,074 14 6,781 937 -
Nov-35 7,335 1,004 4 7,852 1,075 12 6,850 938 -
Dec-35 7,383 1,011 2 7,905 1,082 10 6,894 944 -
Jan-36 7,414 1,014 1 7,939 1,086 10 6,922 947 -
Feb-36 7,412 1,017 2 7,938 1,089 11 6,919 949 -
Mar-36 7,400 1,015 1 7,927 1,087 10 6,907 947 -
Apr-36 7,380 1,016 1 7,907 1,089 10 6,887 948 -
May-36 7,364 1,014 1 7,891 1,087 10 6,871 946 -
Jun-36 7,325 1,011 1 7,850 1,084 10 6,833 943 -
Jul-36 7,275 1,007 2 7,798 1,079 11 6,785 939 -
Aug-36 7,250 1,008 3 7,773 1,081 12 6,761 940 -
Sep-36 7,242 1,005 7 7,765 1,078 15 6,752 937 -
Oct-36 7,293 1,008 6 7,821 1,081 15 6,799 940 -
Nov-36 7,368 1,008 4 7,903 1,081 12 6,868 940 -
Dec-36 7,416 1,015 2 7,956 1,089 11 6,911 946 -
Jan-37 7,447 1,019 1 7,990 1,093 11 6,939 950 -
Feb-37 7,445 1,021 2 7,989 1,096 11 6,936 951 -
Mar-37 7,433 1,020 1 7,978 1,095 10 6,924 950 -
Apr-37 7,413 1,020 1 7,958 1,095 11 6,904 950 -
May-37 7,397 1,019 1 7,942 1,094 11 6,888 949 -
Jun-37 7,358 1,016 1 7,901 1,091 11 6,851 946 -
Jul-37 7,308 1,011 2 7,849 1,086 11 6,803 941 -
Aug-37 7,282 1,012 3 7,822 1,087 12 6,778 942 -
Sep-37 7,275 1,010 7 7,816 1,085 16 6,770 940 -
Oct-37 7,326 1,012 6 7,872 1,087 15 6,816 942 -
Nov-37 7,401 1,013 4 7,954 1,089 13 6,885 942 -
Dec-37 7,449 1,020 2 8,006 1,096 11 6,929 949 -
La Grande -
Expected Growth
La Grande -
High Growth
La Grande -
Low Growth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 76
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: DEMAND COEFFICIENTS

January February March April May June July August September October November December
HEAT COEFFICIENTS
WA | Residential 0.009971 0.009053 0.008839 0.006973 0.004386 0.002250 0.001231 0.002220 0.003217 0.006604 0.008988 0.009706
WA | Commercial 0.053158 0.052741 0.046207 0.034483 0.023712 0.013662 0.005341 0.021608 0.021270 0.034440 0.044822 0.052386 WA | Ind FirmSale 0.152593 0.162081 0.145640 0.175492 0.171513 0.220240 0.016786 0.182679 0.220748 0.111663 0.105711 0.119724
ID | Residential 0.009833 0.008896 0.009330 0.007446 0.005389 0.002417 0.001652 0.000535 0.003860 0.006948 0.009374 0.009923 ID | Commercial 0.039718 0.036697 0.032312 0.023848 0.015239 0.013154 0.003409 0.029932 0.011062 0.020519 0.031871 0.038011
ID | Ind FirmSale 0.170817 0.201851 0.100163 0.100872 0.138682 0.075238 0.197426 0.112444 0.110702 0.088493 0.119407 0.123984
Roseburg | Residential 0.011630 0.009587 0.009809 0.007535 0.005220 0.003216 0.001616 - 0.004154 0.007913 0.010520 0.012343 Roseburg | Commercial 0.050141 0.041226 0.041740 0.032942 0.025395 0.019063 0.009553 - 0.024100 0.034450 0.038878 0.048356
Roseburg | Ind FirmSale 0.033368 0.190335 0.054369 0.108225 0.074334 0.152983 0.099573 - 0.107618 0.161549 0.113511 0.063067
Medford | Residential 0.011013 0.010491 0.009985 0.008122 0.006630 0.004540 0.000188 - 0.003389 0.007070 0.009485 0.010848 Medford | Commercial 0.041792 0.039392 0.036600 0.029937 0.023166 0.021386 - - 0.022369 0.034150 0.037135 0.040772
Medford | Ind FirmSale 0.016071 0.037925 0.031213 0.068237 0.049327 0.091332 - - 0.191349 0.235975 0.122903 0.050094
La Grande | Residential 0.009009 0.008055 0.007211 0.005277 0.004571 0.002192 0.000389 0.012638 0.000063 0.003748 0.008159 0.008895
La Grande | Commercial 0.040793 0.035518 0.029200 0.018954 0.004460 0.002962 0.001004 0.075772 0.000797 0.012805 0.029008 0.037965 La Grande | Ind FirmSale - - - - - - 11.262884 5.257084 1.806537 1.106136 0.024894 -
Klam Falls | Residential 0.008258 0.007906 0.007254 0.005830 0.004592 0.002998 0.001448 0.000377 0.002152 0.004994 0.007559 0.008012
Klam Falls | Commercial 0.030364 0.029036 0.025170 0.019900 0.013838 0.009614 0.005768 0.006738 0.015708 0.020117 0.027158 0.029743 Klam Falls | Ind FirmSale 0.073756 0.094094 0.071758 0.084971 0.048154 0.063523 0.084896 0.252837 0.214762 0.143145 0.184839 0.098340
BASE COEFFICIENTS
WA | Residential 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723 0.047723
WA | Commercial 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871 0.382871
WA | Ind FirmSale 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665 3.103665
ID | Residential 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 0.044470 ID | Commercial 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338 0.392338
ID | Ind FirmSale 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098 4.975098
Roseburg | Residential 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 0.034716 Roseburg | Commercial 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081 0.271081
Roseburg | Ind FirmSale 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618 2.233618
Medford | Residential 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948 0.046948
Medford | Commercial 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 0.359543 Medford | Ind FirmSale 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638 4.180638
La Grande | Residential 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894 0.075894
La Grande | Commercial 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 0.423491 La Grande | Ind FirmSale 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752 57.409752
Klam Falls | Residential 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439 0.032439
Klam Falls | Commercial 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901 0.223901
Klam Falls | Ind FirmSale 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971 3.595971
SUPER PEAK*
WA | Residential 0.009577 0.009577 0.009577 WA | Commercial 0.052761 0.052761 0.052761
WA | Ind FirmSale 0.144799 0.144799 0.144799
ID | Residential 0.009551 0.009551 0.009551 ID | Commercial 0.038142 0.038142 0.038142
ID | Ind FirmSale 0.165551 0.165551 0.165551
Roseburg | Residential 0.011186 0.011186 0.011186
Roseburg | Commercial 0.046574 0.046574 0.046574 Roseburg | Ind FirmSale 0.095590 0.095590 0.095590
Medford NWP | Residential 0.010784 0.010784 0.010784
Medford NWP | Commercial 0.040652 0.040652 0.040652 Medford NWP | Ind FirmSale 0.034696 0.034696 0.034696
La Grande | Residential 0.008653 0.008653 0.008653
La Grande | Commercial 0.038092 0.038092 0.038092
La Grande | Ind FirmSale - - -
Klam Falls | Residential 0.008059 0.008059 0.008059 Klam Falls | Commercial 0.029714 0.029714 0.029714
Klam Falls | Ind FirmSale 0.088730 0.088730 0.088730
* Average of DEC JAN FEB heat coefficients
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 77
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: WA BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION

Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Demand 6,501
Average of Com Demand 4,988
Average of Ind Demand 336
2014
Average of Res Demand 6,347
Average of Com Demand 5,526
Average of Ind Demand 355
2015
Average of Res Demand 6,625
Average of Com Demand 5,244
Average of Ind Demand 394
2016
Average of Res Demand 7,149
Average of Com Demand 5,908
Average of Ind Demand 410
2017
Average of Res Demand 6,574
Average of Com Demand 5,380
Average of Ind Demand 427
Total Average of Res Demand 6,639
Total Average of Com Demand 5,409
Total Average of Ind Demand 384
Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Cust 135,755
Average of Com Cust 14,185
Average of Ind Cust 134
2014
Average of Res Cust 137,356
Average of Com Cust 14,144
Average of Ind Cust 138
2015
Average of Res Cust 139,093
Average of Com Cust 14,173
Average of Ind Cust 135
2016
Average of Res Cust 141,755
Average of Com Cust 14,456
Average of Ind Cust 130
2017
Average of Res Cust 145,535
Average of Com Cust 14,551 Base Coefficients
Average of Ind Cust 133 (Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
Total Average of Res Cust 139,898 0.047458 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Com Cust 14,302 0.378215 Com Base Usage
Total Average of Ind Cust 134 2.874961 Ind Base Usage
WA
Average Actual Demand by Class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 78
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: ID BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION

Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Demand 3,092
Average of Com Demand 2,886
Average of Ind Demand 457
2014
Average of Res Demand 3,276
Average of Com Demand 2,868
Average of Ind Demand 643
2015
Average of Res Demand 2,979
Average of Com Demand 3,511
Average of Ind Demand 436
2016
Average of Res Demand 3,361
Average of Com Demand 3,322
Average of Ind Demand 509
2017
Average of Res Demand 3,140
Average of Com Demand 3,464
Average of Ind Demand 495
Total Average of Res Demand 3,170
Total Average of Com Demand 3,210
Total Average of Ind Demand 508
Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Cust 67,390
Average of Com Cust 8,541
Average of Ind Cust 94
2014
Average of Res Cust 68,329
Average of Com Cust 8,527
Average of Ind Cust 100
2015
Average of Res Cust 69,436
Average of Com Cust 8,613
Average of Ind Cust 100
2016
Average of Res Cust 71,062
Average of Com Cust 8,751
Average of Ind Cust 97
2017
Average of Res Cust 72,686
Average of Com Cust 8,881 Base Coefficients
Average of Ind Cust 93 (Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
Total Average of Res Cust 69,780 0.045423 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Com Cust 8,663 0.370569 Com Base Usage
Total Average of Ind Cust 97 5.263706 Ind Base Usage
ID
Average Actual Demand by Class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 79
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: MEDFORD BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION

Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Demand 2,323
Average of Com Demand 2,160
Average of Ind Demand 43
2014
Average of Res Demand 2,290
Average of Com Demand 2,253
Average of Ind Demand 54
2015
Average of Res Demand 2,316
Average of Com Demand 2,303
Average of Ind Demand 60
2016
Average of Res Demand 2,582
Average of Com Demand 2,487
Average of Ind Demand 60
2017
Average of Res Demand 2,596
Average of Com Demand 2,487
Average of Ind Demand 68
Total Average of Res Demand 2,421
Total Average of Com Demand 2,338
Total Average of Ind Demand 57
Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Cust 51,090
Average of Com Cust 6,516
Average of Ind Cust 16
2014
Average of Res Cust 51,662
Average of Com Cust 6,592
Average of Ind Cust 17
2015
Average of Res Cust 52,605
Average of Com Cust 6,596
Average of Ind Cust 15
2016
Average of Res Cust 53,084
Average of Com Cust 6,796
Average of Ind Cust 15
2017
Average of Res Cust 53,920
Average of Com Cust 6,850 Base Coefficients
Average of Ind Cust 15 (Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
Total Average of Res Cust 52,472 0.046145 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Com Cust 6,670 0.350570 Com Base Usage
Total Average of Ind Cust 16 3.651363 Ind Base Usage
Medford
Average Actual Demand by Class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 80
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: ROSEBURG BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION

Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Demand 551
Average of Com Demand 665
Average of Ind Demand 39
2014
Average of Res Demand 400
Average of Com Demand 484
Average of Ind Demand 26
2015
Average of Res Demand 430
Average of Com Demand 557
Average of Ind Demand 4
2016
Average of Res Demand 466
Average of Com Demand 557
Average of Ind Demand 4
2017
Average of Res Demand 486
Average of Com Demand 628
Average of Ind Demand 5
Total Average of Res Demand 467
Total Average of Com Demand 578
Total Average of Ind Demand 16
Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Cust 13,020
Average of Com Cust 2,120
Average of Ind Cust 3
2014
Average of Res Cust 13,063
Average of Com Cust 2,127
Average of Ind Cust 3
2015
Average of Res Cust 13,227
Average of Com Cust 2,130
Average of Ind Cust 2
2016
Average of Res Cust 13,242
Average of Com Cust 2,156
Average of Ind Cust 2
2017
Average of Res Cust 13,337
Average of Com Cust 2,141 Base Coefficients
Average of Ind Cust 2 (Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
Total Average of Res Cust 13,178 0.035406 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Com Cust 2,135 0.270835 Com Base Usage
Total Average of Ind Cust 2 6.521993 Ind Base Usage
Roseburg
Average Actual Demand by Class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 81
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: KLAMATH FALLS BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION

Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Demand 531
Average of Com Demand 433
Average of Ind Demand 24
2014
Average of Res Demand 515
Average of Com Demand 442
Average of Ind Demand 22
2015
Average of Res Demand 531
Average of Com Demand 484
Average of Ind Demand 30
2016
Average of Res Demand 397
Average of Com Demand 308
Average of Ind Demand 19
2017
Average of Res Demand 458
Average of Com Demand 361
Average of Ind Demand 26
Total Average of Res Demand 486
Total Average of Com Demand 406
Total Average of Ind Demand 24
Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Cust 13,857
Average of Com Cust 1,646
Average of Ind Cust 8
2014
Average of Res Cust 13,872
Average of Com Cust 1,652
Average of Ind Cust 8
2015
Average of Res Cust 14,106
Average of Com Cust 1,667
Average of Ind Cust 7
2016
Average of Res Cust 14,206
Average of Com Cust 1,722
Average of Ind Cust 7
2017
Average of Res Cust 14,397
Average of Com Cust 1,762 Base Coefficients
Average of Ind Cust 7 (Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
Total Average of Res Cust 14,088 0.034518 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Com Cust 1,689 0.240100 Com Base Usage
Total Average of Ind Cust 7 3.292121 Ind Base Usage
Klamath Falls
Average Actual Demand by Class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 82
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.3: LA GRANDE BASE COEFFICIENT CALCULATION

Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Demand 530
Average of Com Demand 380
Average of Ind Demand 63
2014
Average of Res Demand 541
Average of Com Demand 389
Average of Ind Demand 165
2015
Average of Res Demand 554
Average of Com Demand 441
Average of Ind Demand 122
2016
Average of Res Demand 497
Average of Com Demand 377
Average of Ind Demand 192
2017
Average of Res Demand 439
Average of Com Demand 338
Average of Ind Demand 202
Total Average of Res Demand 512
Total Average of Com Demand 385
Total Average of Ind Demand 149
Month
7 & 8
Year
2013
Average of Res Cust 6,456
Average of Com Cust 894
Average of Ind Cust 4
2014
Average of Res Cust 6,496
Average of Com Cust 892
Average of Ind Cust 3
2015
Average of Res Cust 6,547
Average of Com Cust 897
Average of Ind Cust 4
2016
Average of Res Cust 6,529
Average of Com Cust 919
Average of Ind Cust 3
2017
Average of Res Cust 6,565
Average of Com Cust 914 Base Coefficients
Average of Ind Cust 3 (Actual Average Demand/Customer Count)
Total Average of Res Cust 6,518 0.078587 Res Base Usage
Total Average of Com Cust 903 0.426358 Com Base Usage
Total Average of Ind Cust 3 48.029588 Ind Base Usage
La Grande
Average Actual Demand by Class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 83
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.4: HEATING DEGREE DAY DATA MONTHLY TABLES

Temperature Pattern WA/ID
Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Annual
Total
2017-2018 868 1,155 1,111 920 772 561 331 139 26 25 165 529 6,601
2018-2019 866 1,149 1,119 914 780 556 328 141 22 21 175 540 6,609
2019-2020 876 1,154 1,119 915 789 561 316 136 20 24 166 539 6,616
2020-2021 868 1,138 1,117 912 785 549 310 138 21 23 171 539 6,571
2021-2022 891 1,155 1,118 920 785 568 312 144 24 24 177 535 6,652
2022-2023 873 1,147 1,116 927 785 557 327 144 24 24 175 539 6,636
2023-2024 862 1,156 1,119 917 772 562 323 135 21 24 168 550 6,610
2024-2025 866 1,153 1,107 931 783 557 319 144 25 23 175 546 6,629
2025-2026 869 1,151 1,103 915 783 554 326 144 22 22 172 552 6,614
2026-2027 872 1,137 1,106 910 777 555 322 137 25 24 167 535 6,568
2027-2028 875 1,150 1,107 911 782 561 319 132 21 24 170 528 6,580
2028-2029 869 1,155 1,117 921 780 555 328 140 24 25 164 528 6,606
2029-2030 862 1,156 1,112 921 789 562 316 140 20 22 170 536 6,606
2030-2031 868 1,156 1,123 902 791 553 322 138 22 23 171 532 6,601
2031-2032 874 1,142 1,121 916 769 558 317 140 23 23 168 539 6,590
2032-2033 863 1,133 1,110 916 769 554 316 136 22 25 169 543 6,556
2033-2034 876 1,161 1,126 920 777 573 318 134 23 23 169 537 6,637
2034-2035 865 1,152 1,112 912 779 561 331 142 23 24 169 541 6,612
2035-2036 877 1,152 1,116 911 788 555 315 142 23 24 170 543 6,616
2036-2037 859 1,154 1,116 922 801 564 318 141 20 23 169 536 6,624
Temperature Pattern Klamath Falls
Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Annual
Total
2017-2018 866 1,086 1,076 853 805 672 445 221 46 61 230 555 6,916
2018-2019 871 1,096 1,077 865 817 668 447 222 45 62 225 560 6,954
2019-2020 866 1,101 1,075 878 810 674 439 215 45 62 219 558 6,943
2020-2021 861 1,104 1,073 875 807 665 452 223 43 55 224 555 6,938
2021-2022 875 1,102 1,075 855 802 663 433 215 47 64 225 555 6,910
2022-2023 857 1,104 1,059 858 817 672 432 217 44 61 225 548 6,895
2023-2024 872 1,092 1,070 865 817 662 448 216 47 60 224 552 6,927
2024-2025 876 1,099 1,064 858 811 677 442 219 42 61 221 554 6,924
2025-2026 867 1,093 1,082 866 809 656 448 213 43 58 227 561 6,924
2026-2027 869 1,097 1,047 866 817 656 436 230 46 60 218 561 6,902
2027-2028 869 1,098 1,044 862 806 659 449 219 45 65 217 560 6,894
2028-2029 869 1,098 1,071 864 819 668 446 223 46 64 213 557 6,937
2029-2030 860 1,105 1,063 870 797 657 451 223 48 63 219 552 6,908
2030-2031 859 1,105 1,056 873 806 670 460 222 42 62 229 557 6,940
2031-2032 869 1,095 1,074 849 816 665 446 220 47 59 220 548 6,908
2032-2033 863 1,092 1,062 870 817 672 440 219 47 62 226 554 6,923
2033-2034 866 1,095 1,052 853 803 675 451 218 46 64 220 554 6,898
2034-2035 867 1,108 1,068 868 807 666 445 214 45 59 219 557 6,923
2035-2036 860 1,101 1,072 873 808 675 455 216 45 59 217 560 6,941
2036-2037 865 1,091 1,080 861 801 665 450 223 46 60 221 556 6,919
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 84
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.4: HEATING DEGREE DAY DATA MONTHLY TABLES

Medford
Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Annual
Total
2017-2018 599 819 776 586 533 381 203 52 3 4 50 295 4,302
2018-2019 600 821 778 595 531 376 200 53 3 4 49 296 4,304
2019-2020 595 818 779 601 531 379 198 52 3 4 50 286 4,296
2020-2021 589 815 781 589 533 384 198 53 2 4 47 297 4,293
2021-2022 598 812 782 592 530 382 202 56 2 4 47 295 4,302
2022-2023 595 809 790 584 526 378 198 56 3 4 50 299 4,293
2023-2024 606 818 775 589 544 391 189 52 3 4 48 292 4,312
2024-2025 601 813 790 588 529 373 191 56 3 4 46 297 4,291
2025-2026 605 813 784 587 529 379 195 57 3 3 51 295 4,302
2026-2027 603 810 779 595 529 378 205 54 2 4 49 287 4,296
2027-2028 599 825 783 595 524 382 197 52 3 4 53 296 4,313
2028-2029 598 809 776 587 524 378 205 55 2 3 50 293 4,279
2029-2030 605 796 777 587 520 382 198 53 3 3 49 291 4,264
2030-2031 603 809 778 591 518 386 203 58 3 3 49 287 4,287
2031-2032 602 819 773 594 537 386 198 54 3 4 49 297 4,315
2032-2033 595 815 783 587 515 377 194 54 3 4 46 295 4,267
2033-2034 604 815 782 594 537 381 199 55 3 4 51 296 4,320
2034-2035 592 814 782 594 528 385 191 58 3 4 46 297 4,293
2035-2036 601 815 773 591 534 369 197 56 3 3 51 291 4,284
2036-2037 599 811 780 595 530 382 199 55 3 4 47 296 4,300
Roseburg
Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Annual
Total
2017-2018 531 707 675 544 506 380 223 83 5 5 56 280 3,995
2018-2019 529 710 677 556 506 384 219 81 5 4 56 276 4,003
2019-2020 525 709 686 558 505 384 219 81 5 4 56 278 4,009
2020-2021 523 710 684 546 506 381 225 79 5 5 56 282 4,001
2021-2022 528 707 689 548 502 382 226 83 5 5 56 277 4,006
2022-2023 528 700 698 539 498 379 225 78 5 4 53 275 3,981
2023-2024 535 709 679 545 517 385 216 79 5 5 56 275 4,006
2024-2025 531 700 692 545 497 383 226 85 4 5 55 270 3,993
2025-2026 534 704 691 545 502 388 214 81 5 4 53 277 3,998
2026-2027 535 701 681 551 501 386 224 82 5 4 54 281 4,007
2027-2028 529 715 687 552 499 381 221 77 6 5 56 282 4,010
2028-2029 528 701 674 544 495 395 223 77 5 4 55 280 3,980
2029-2030 534 695 682 543 493 374 217 75 5 4 56 270 3,948
2030-2031 534 703 686 546 490 376 222 78 4 4 56 275 3,974
2031-2032 535 712 674 551 508 370 220 78 5 4 56 275 3,990
2032-2033 524 705 685 543 486 385 213 80 4 4 53 272 3,955
2033-2034 535 708 683 551 506 379 209 81 5 5 55 272 3,990
2034-2035 521 705 685 552 497 382 215 79 5 4 54 282 3,981
2035-2036 529 708 677 547 504 379 216 79 5 5 54 275 3,977
2036-2037 529 702 682 554 503 370 219 75 5 5 55 273 3,972
Temperature Pattern
Temperature Pattern
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 85
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.4: HEATING DEGREE DAY DATA MONTHLY TABLES

La Grande
Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Annual
Total
2017-2018 768 1,051 1,034 810 726 554 357 156 25 34 192 518 6,224
2018-2019 768 1,049 1,022 821 717 556 353 156 21 33 189 510 6,197
2019-2020 783 1,053 1,021 816 717 551 349 157 24 34 186 515 6,205
2020-2021 776 1,054 1,022 817 721 549 361 150 24 33 190 517 6,213
2021-2022 785 1,056 1,026 818 721 556 348 150 29 34 187 513 6,224
2022-2023 778 1,053 1,032 818 723 558 356 152 28 33 192 504 6,227
2023-2024 771 1,065 1,019 808 726 564 352 148 25 36 194 514 6,222
2024-2025 785 1,056 1,030 813 713 552 352 144 24 35 189 508 6,199
2025-2026 763 1,062 1,033 818 727 554 351 152 29 34 189 517 6,231
2026-2027 768 1,058 1,028 820 720 553 357 155 26 33 188 513 6,219
2027-2028 776 1,052 1,025 808 724 556 362 156 26 35 191 519 6,229
2028-2029 784 1,056 1,032 814 722 560 358 153 24 35 192 517 6,249
2029-2030 770 1,057 1,019 809 727 553 351 155 23 33 187 512 6,197
2030-2031 763 1,054 1,017 811 718 558 350 149 26 34 187 517 6,183
2031-2032 779 1,045 1,025 810 711 553 353 150 24 35 194 504 6,185
2032-2033 770 1,054 1,016 812 718 552 353 152 24 34 189 504 6,179
2033-2034 766 1,050 1,030 819 719 559 350 150 26 34 193 508 6,203
2034-2035 772 1,050 1,035 810 720 559 353 151 24 31 189 518 6,211
2035-2036 787 1,050 1,025 812 715 555 353 148 26 35 192 514 6,213
2036-2037 762 1,045 1,018 815 709 562 352 150 27 32 192 510 6,174
Temperature Pattern
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 86
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.4: HEATING DEGREE DAILY MONTH BY AREA

WA/ID
Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 38 35 30 22 14 3 0 0 0 9 25 34
2 38 34 29 23 13 6 0 0 0 12 25 34
3 39 34 29 23 13 5 0 0 1 13 26 35
4 36 32 28 22 13 4 0 0 0 13 26 36
5 37 32 27 22 14 5 0 0 2 14 27 36
6 36 32 27 20 15 5 0 0 3 12 26 37
7 35 33 27 19 13 4 0 0 2 12 25 38
8 35 33 28 19 12 6 0 0 2 14 25 38
9 35 33 27 20 13 6 0 0 3 15 26 38
10 36 33 26 19 12 7 0 0 3 17 27 36
11 38 33 25 19 10 7 0 0 2 17 28 36
12 38 31 24 18 10 4 0 0 1 18 26 35
13 36 62 23 19 12 4 0 0 1 15 26 35
14 35 72 23 21 9 5 0 0 1 15 28 35
15 38 82 23 22 9 5 0 0 1 17 27 36
16 38 67 24 19 8 4 0 0 3 17 27 37
17 36 57 25 19 8 4 0 0 5 15 28 37
18 34 31 25 18 8 4 0 0 5 17 29 51
19 35 31 25 17 8 4 0 0 6 16 29 56
20 35 31 24 15 10 3 0 0 8 17 29 61
21 35 30 24 14 9 1 0 0 9 18 31 58
22 35 30 24 15 9 0 0 0 7 17 32 53
23 34 32 24 16 8 1 0 0 7 19 32 38
24 35 34 23 17 7 1 0 0 6 20 33 37
25 33 34 23 16 8 1 0 0 5 21 31 37
26 34 34 24 16 8 0 0 0 7 22 31 38
27 35 32 23 14 7 0 0 0 7 22 33 36
28 35 31 24 15 7 0 0 0 6 22 35 36
29 33 28 22 16 7 0 0 0 6 24 35 37
30 33 65 21 14 5 0 0 0 8 24 34 39
31 33 65 22 65 4 65 0 0 65 24 65 40
Total 1103 1243 773 614 303 164 0 0 182 528 927 1230
Medford
Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 26 24 19 15 8 0 0 0 0 3 15 25
2 26 22 19 15 7 0 0 0 0 6 17 24
3 28 21 21 15 7 0 0 0 0 6 16 25
4 27 21 19 15 8 0 0 0 0 6 17 26
5 26 22 20 15 9 0 0 0 0 6 17 26
6 26 21 20 13 8 0 0 0 0 5 16 25
7 23 20 20 14 7 0 0 0 0 5 16 27
8 24 23 19 14 7 1 0 0 0 6 18 26
9 25 21 18 14 8 1 0 0 0 7 20 24
10 25 22 18 13 8 2 0 0 0 9 18 26
11 24 21 16 13 7 2 0 0 0 10 18 27
12 24 20 16 13 6 0 0 0 0 10 18 25
13 26 32 15 14 5 0 0 0 0 7 18 24
14 26 36 16 16 4 0 0 0 0 7 18 25
15 26 38 16 16 4 0 0 0 0 9 19 27
16 26 32 16 13 4 0 0 0 0 7 20 27
17 26 28 18 12 4 0 0 0 0 8 21 27
18 24 20 16 12 4 0 0 0 0 9 22 50
19 24 21 15 12 5 0 0 0 0 8 20 59
20 26 20 15 10 5 0 0 0 0 10 21 61
21 25 20 14 11 5 0 0 0 0 11 22 56
22 24 21 15 10 4 0 0 0 0 10 22 55
23 24 22 16 11 3 0 0 0 0 11 23 26
24 23 20 15 11 3 0 0 0 0 12 23 27
25 22 21 17 10 3 0 0 0 0 13 21 27
26 23 22 17 10 1 0 0 0 0 13 23 27
27 25 20 17 10 3 0 0 0 0 14 24 26
28 24 20 16 10 3 0 0 0 0 13 23 25
29 23 21 15 9 2 0 0 0 0 14 24 26
30 24 65 15 8 0 0 0 0 1 13 25 27
31 25 65 15 65 0 65 0 0 65 14 65 27
Total 770 802 524 439 152 71 0 0 66 282 660 955
Temperature Pattern
Temperature Pattern
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 87
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.4: HEATING DEGREE DAILY MONTH BY AREA

LaGrande
Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 37 32 27 22 14 5 0 0 2 10 24 29
2 35 31 25 22 14 6 0 0 3 12 22 31
3 36 31 27 22 14 6 0 0 2 13 23 32
4 35 28 26 21 14 4 0 0 2 14 22 32
5 35 28 24 21 14 6 0 0 2 15 23 34
6 34 28 26 19 14 6 0 0 3 13 21 33
7 31 28 25 19 13 5 0 0 4 12 22 35
8 30 29 26 19 14 7 0 0 4 13 22 34
9 30 30 24 20 15 7 0 0 5 14 23 34
10 32 30 23 18 14 9 0 0 4 16 23 31
11 33 29 23 19 11 7 0 0 4 17 25 33
12 34 28 21 17 11 6 0 0 3 17 23 32
13 32 51 21 19 12 5 0 0 3 14 24 30
14 32 69 21 21 10 6 0 0 3 14 25 32
15 36 75 21 22 10 4 0 0 3 16 25 32
16 35 74 22 19 10 5 0 0 4 15 25 34
17 34 71 24 17 9 4 0 0 5 14 26 35
18 31 28 23 18 8 5 0 0 6 16 27 51
19 30 28 23 18 9 5 0 0 6 14 25 56
20 31 27 21 16 10 3 0 0 8 16 26 60
21 32 27 22 16 11 2 0 0 9 18 27 57
22 33 27 22 15 10 2 0 0 9 17 28 49
23 32 28 23 16 9 2 0 0 8 17 29 35
24 32 29 21 18 8 2 0 0 7 19 29 35
25 31 29 21 17 9 2 0 0 8 19 29 35
26 32 29 24 16 9 1 0 0 8 21 28 34
27 34 28 23 15 8 0 0 0 8 21 30 34
28 33 27 22 16 9 0 0 0 8 19 31 32
29 32 26 20 17 7 0 0 0 7 21 30 33
30 30 65 21 15 7 0 0 1 7 21 30 37
31 31 65 21 65 6 65 0 1 65 22 65 37
Total 1015 1155 713 615 333 187 0 2 220 500 832 1138
Klamath
Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 36 33 29 25 17 8 0 0 4 13 25 32
2 36 32 29 25 16 9 0 0 3 15 26 32
3 36 30 30 25 16 9 0 0 4 16 26 34
4 37 30 29 25 17 8 0 0 4 16 26 35
5 37 31 28 25 17 9 0 0 6 15 25 35
6 35 29 28 23 17 9 0 0 6 14 24 34
7 32 29 28 23 16 9 0 0 4 14 25 36
8 32 31 28 24 17 10 0 0 4 15 27 35
9 34 31 27 24 18 10 0 0 6 16 29 34
10 33 31 27 23 18 11 0 0 5 17 28 35
11 34 30 25 22 16 11 0 0 3 19 28 36
12 34 29 25 22 16 9 0 0 2 18 26 34
13 34 45 24 23 14 8 0 0 3 15 27 33
14 36 55 25 26 13 7 0 0 5 15 26 36
15 35 57 23 25 13 6 0 0 7 16 26 37
16 34 42 25 23 14 7 0 0 9 16 27 36
17 34 35 26 22 13 7 0 0 9 17 29 37
18 33 30 25 22 14 7 0 0 9 17 29 46.5
19 33 32 24 21 14 7 0 0 9 17 27 62.5
20 33 31 23 20 14 5 0 0 9 19 27 72
21 34 29 24 20 13 4 0 0 9 19 29 66.5
22 34 30 24 19 13 4 0 1 10 18 30 57.5
23 33 32 26 20 12 4 0 2 10 19 31 35
24 33 29 24 20 11 4 0 1 9 19 33 36
25 32 31 26 20 12 4 0 1 10 21 31 35
26 32 31 26 20 11 3 0 1 10 21 33 36
27 34 30 26 18 12 0 0 1 8 22 33 35
28 34 30 25 20 12 0 0 0 8 21 34 34
29 32 33 24 19 11 0 0 0 9 22 34 35
30 32 65 24 18 9 0 0 3 11 22 33 37
31 34 65 25 65 7 65 0 3 65 24 65 38
Total 1052 1098 802 727 433 254 0 13 270 548 919 1217
Temperature Pattern
Temperature Pattern
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 88
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.4: HEATING DEGREE DAILY MONTH BY AREA

Roseburg
Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 24 21 18 16 8 2 0 0 0 4 14 21
2 24 20 18 15 7 2 0 0 0 6 14 21
3 24 20 19 15 8 2 0 0 0 6 15 21
4 23 19 18 14 8 1 0 0 0 6 15 21
5 23 19 18 15 9 2 0 0 0 5 15 21
6 22 19 18 13 9 1 0 0 0 4 13 22
7 20 20 18 13 8 2 0 0 0 4 16 24
8 20 20 17 14 8 2 0 0 0 5 16 23
9 22 20 16 14 10 3 0 0 0 6 16 21
10 22 20 16 13 9 5 0 0 0 9 17 23
11 22 19 15 12 8 3 0 0 0 9 16 22
12 21 18 15 13 7 1 0 0 0 9 14 21
13 22 32 15 13 6 1 0 0 0 7 15 22
14 23 37 15 16 5 2 0 0 0 7 15 23
15 23 42 15 15 6 1 0 0 0 8 15 24
16 22 34 16 13 5 1 0 0 0 8 17 23
17 22 28 17 12 5 0 0 0 1 8 17 23
18 21 19 15 12 5 2 0 0 0 8 19 40
19 21 20 15 12 6 1 0 0 0 8 16 53
20 22 20 15 11 6 0 0 0 0 10 19 55
21 21 19 16 11 6 0 0 0 2 10 20 46
22 21 19 16 10 5 1 0 0 1 9 20 48
23 21 20 15 11 4 0 0 0 1 11 21 21
24 21 19 14 11 4 0 0 0 0 12 19 23
25 21 20 16 11 4 0 0 0 2 13 20 23
26 22 20 17 10 3 0 0 0 1 12 20 24
27 22 19 16 10 4 0 0 0 0 14 22 22
28 20 19 15 10 6 0 0 0 0 12 21 22
29 20 20 14 10 4 0 0 0 2 12 21 23
30 20 65 15 9 2 0 0 0 3 13 22 24
31 21 65 15 65 1 65 0 0 65 13 65 24
Total 673 772 498 439 186 100 0 0 78 268 585 824
Temperature Pattern
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 89
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.5: DEMAND SENSITIVITIES
SUMMARY OF ASSUMPTIONS – DEMAND SCENARIOS

Re
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
Re
f
e
r
e
n
c
e

Pl
u
s

P
e
a
k
Lo
w

C
u
s
t
Hi
g
h

C
u
s
t
Alt
e
r
n
a
t
e

DS
M
Pe
a
k

p
l
u
s

DS
M
80
%

b
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

em
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
80
%

b
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

em
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
Al
t
e
r
n
a
t
e

His
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
Alt
e
r
n
a
t
e

Hi
s
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
Lo
w
Hi
g
h
Ca
r
b
o
n
Ca
s
e
Ca
s
e
Gr
o
w
t
h
Gr
o
w
t
h
We
a
t
h
e
r

St
d
Ca
s
e
Ca
s
e
Re
f
e
r
e
n
c
e

C
a
s
e
Re
f
e
r
e
n
c
e

P
l
u
s

P
e
a
k
2 Y
e
a
r

U
P
C
5 Y
e
a
r

U
P
C
Ela
s
t
i
c
i
t
y
Pr
i
c
e
s
Pr
i
c
e
s
Le
g
i
s
l
a
t
i
o
n
Cu
s
t
o
m
e
r

G
r
o
w
t
h

R
a
t
e
Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

Hig
h

Gr
o
w
t
h
Us
e

p
e
r

C
u
s
t
o
m
e
r
2
Y
e
a
r

His
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
5
Y
e
a
r

His
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
We
a
t
h
e
r

P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g

S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d
De
m
a
n
d

S
i
d
e

M
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t

P
r
o
g
r
a
m
s

I
n
c
l
u
d
e
d
Pr
i
c
e
s

P
r
i
c
e

c
u
r
v
e

P
r
i
c
e

c
u
r
v
e

a
d
d
e
r

(
$
/
D
t
h
)
Hig
h
/
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d
/
Lo
w

E
l
a
s
t
i
c
i
t
y
FIR
S
T

Y
E
A
R

U
N
S
E
R
V
E
D
WA
N/A
20
3
4
N/
A
20
2
9
N/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
N/A
N/A
20
3
0

2
0
3
2
N/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
ID
N/A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
N/A
N/A
N/
A
N/A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
Me
d
f
o
r
d

N
/
A
20
3
6
N/
A
20
2
9
N/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
N/A
N/A
20
3
6
N/A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
Ro
s
e
b
u
r
g

N
/
A
20
3
5
N/
A
20
3
1
N/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
N/A
N/A
N/
A
N/A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
Kla
m
a
t
h

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
N/A
N/A
N/
A
N/A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
La

G
r
a
n
d
e

N
/
A
20
3
4
N/
A
20
2
8
N/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
N/A
N/A
20
3
0

2
0
3
2
N/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A

N
/
A
DE
M
A
N
D

I
N
F
L
U
E
N
C
I
N
G

-

D
I
R
E
C
T
PR
I
C
E

I
N
F
L
U
E
N
C
I
N
G

-

I
N
D
I
R
E
C
T
RE
S
U
L
T
S
IN
P
U
T

A
S
S
U
M
P
T
I
O
N
S
No
n
e
No
n
e
Co
l
d
e
s
t

i
n

20
y
r
s
20

Y
e
a
r

Av
e
r
a
g
e
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
Hig
h
Lo
w
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
Co
l
d
e
s
t

o
n

Re
c
o
r
d
20

Y
e
a
r

A
v
e
r
a
g
e
Co
l
d
e
s
t

o
n

R
e
c
o
r
d
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
Re
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
20

Y
e
a
r

Av
e
r
a
g
e
Co
l
d
e
s
t

o
n

R
e
c
o
r
d
No
n
e
No
n
e
3 Y
e
a
r

H
i
s
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
Re
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
3 Y
e
a
r

H
i
s
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
3 Y
e
a
r

H
i
s
t
o
r
i
c
a
l

l
e
s
s

d
e
m
a
n
d

d
e
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 90
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.5: DEMAND SCENARIOS
PROPOSED SCENARIOS

Proposed Scenarios Expected Cold Day 20yr Average Low Growth 80 % below High Growth
INPUT ASSUMPTIONS Case Weather Std Case & High Prices 1990 emissions & Low Prices
Customer Growth Rate Low Growth
Rate
Reference Case
growth with
emissions 80%
below 1990 target
High Growth
Rate
Demand Side Management
Weather Planning Standard
Historical
Coldest Day
Coldest in 20
years
20 year
average
Prices
Price curve
RESULTS
First Gas Year Unserved
Washington N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2032
Idaho N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2032
Medford N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2031
Roseburg N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2031
Klamath N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
La Grande N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2032
Scenario Summary
Most
aggressive
peak planning
case utilizing
Average Case
assumptions as
a starting point
and layering in
coldest weather
on record. The
likelihood of
occurrence is
low.
Evaluates
adopting an
alternate peak
weather
standard. Helps
provide some
bounds around
our sensitivity to
weather.
Case most
representative
of our average
(budget, PGA,
rate case)
planning
criteria.
Stagnant
growth
assumptions in
order to
evaluate if a
shortage does
occur. Not likely
to occur.
Reduction of the
use of natural gas
to 80% below
1990 targets in
OR and WA by
2050. The case
assumes the
overall reduction
is an average
goal before
applying figures
like elasticity and
DSM.
Aggressive
growth
assumptions in
order to
evaluate when
our earliest
resource
shortage could
occur. Not likely
to occur.
Risk Assessment
Use per Customer
Carbon Legislation
($/Metric Ton)
Higher or lower customer growth rates, which are heavily based on economic recovery. Higher or lower growth rates will lead to
accelerated or delayed unserved demand. Looking at various growth assumptions off the Expected Case allows us to capture the
risk in terms of the change in demand linked to customer growth.
Higher or lower use per customer will also lead to accelerated or delayed unserved demand. Use per customer can differ in many
ways. Direct use per customer influencers, such as demand side management, NGV/CNG usage, and derivation of the use per
customer starting point (i.e. one year, three year, etc.). Again, varying these assumptions under our forecasting methodology allows
us to quantify the change each assumption has to our forecast.
Weather volatility and predictability are a key risk. As the most correlated direct demand influencer, varying weather assumptions is
key to understanding the weather related risks.
Indirect influencers including elasticity and price are also important assumptions. The two go hand in hand, as price changes it will
influence how much customers consume. If forecasted prices remain relatively stable over the planning horizon, our current
elasticity assumption will not provide much decreased usage. However, price adders or an overall steepening of the price curve will
trigger a greater decline in usage due to the price elastic response. The magnitude of the elasticity adjustment is also important.
We are using a long run elasticity factor as calculated by the AGA. We continue to evaluate this assumption and are looking to
update the study as part of our Action Plan.
Reference Case Cust Growth Rates
None
$10-$30 WA
$17.86-$51.58 OR
$0 ID
Historical Coldest Day
Expected High
Yes
3 yr Flat + Price
Elasticity3 yr Flat + Price Elasticity
Low
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 91
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.6: DEMAND FORECAST SENSITIVITIES AND SCENARIOS
DESCRIPTIONS
DEFINITIONS
DYNAMIC DEMAND METHODOLOGY – Avista’s demand forecasting approach wherein we 1) identify key
demand drivers behind natural gas consumption, 2) perform sensitivity analysis on each demand driver,
and 3) combine demand drivers under various scenarios to develop alternative potential outcomes for
forecasted demand.
DEMAND INFLUENCING FACTORS – Factors that directly influence the volume of natural gas consumed by our
core customers.
PRICE INFLUENCING FACTORS – Factors that, through price elasticity response, indirectly influence the volume
of natural gas consumed by our core customers.
REFERENCE CASE – A baseline point of reference that captures the basic inputs for determining a demand
forecast in SENDOUT® which includes number of customers, use per customer, average daily weather
temperatures and expected natural gas prices.
SENSITIVITIES – Focused analysis of a specific natural gas demand driver and its impact on forecasted
demand relative to the Reference Case when underlying input assumptions are modified.
SCENARIOS – Combination of natural gas demand drivers that make up a demand forecast.
Avista evaluates each sensitivities impact.
SENSITIVITIES
The following Sensitivities were performed on identified demand drivers against the reference case for
consideration in Scenario development. Note that Sensitivity assumptions reflect incremental adjustments
we estimate are not captured in the underlying reference case forecast.
Following are the Demand Influencing (Direct) Sensitivities we evaluated:
REFERENCE CASE PLUS PEAK – Same assumptions as in the Reference Case with an adjustment made to
normal weather to incorporate peak weather conditions. The peak weather data being the coldest day on
record for each weather area.
LOW & HIGH CUSTOMER GROWTH – Discussed in detail in Appendix 2.1: Economic Outlook and Customer
Count Forecast.
ALTERNATE WEATHER STANDARD (COLDEST DAY 20 YRS) – Peak Day weather temperature reduced to coldest
average daily temperature (HDDs) experienced in the most recent 20 years in each region.
DSM – Reference case assumptions including Washington and Idaho DSM potential identified by the
Conservation Potential Assessment provided by Applied Energy Group and Oregon DSM potential
provided by Energy Trust of Oregon. See Appendix 3.1 for full assessment reports.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 92
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

PEAK PLUS DSM – Reference plus peak weather assumptions including Washington and Idaho DSM
potential identified by the Conservation Potential Assessment provided by Applied Energy Group and
Oregon DSM potential provided by Energy Trust of Oregon. See Appendix 3.1 for full assessment
reports.
80% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS REFERENCE CASE – Reference case assumptions including reduction in Oregon
and Washington consumption to 80% below 1990 emission levels by 2050. The case shows the overall
risk of a scenario with the overall goal of reducing natural gas emissions, but does not consider what
methods will be used to get to these levels or their costs.
80% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS REFERENCE PLUS CASE – Reference plus peak weather assumptions including
reduction in Oregon and Washington consumption to 80% below 1990 emission levels by 2050. The case
shows the overall risk of a scenario with the overall goal of reducing natural gas emissions, but does not
consider what methods will be used to get to these levels or their costs.
ALTERNATE HISTORICAL 2-YEAR USE PER CUSTOMER – Reference case use per customer was based upon three
years of actual use per customer per heating degree day data. This sensitivity used two years of historical
use per customer per heating degree day data.
ALTERNATE HISTORICAL 5-YEAR USE PER CUSTOMER – Reference case use per customer was based upon three
years of actual use per customer per heating degree day data. This sensitivity used five years of historical
use per customer per heating degree day data.
Following are the Price Influencing (Indirect) Sensitivities we evaluated:
EXPECTED ELASTICITY – For our Expected Elasticity Sensitivity, we incorporate reduced consumption in
response to higher natural gas prices utilizing a price elasticity study prepared by the American Gas
Association.
LOW & HIGH PRICES – To capture a wide band of alternative prices forecasts, an adjustment to the expected
price was developed utilizing a higher and lower inflation rate. These rates were then applied to the
expected price helping to maintain the symmetry of the expected price curve while producing a set of
reasonable curves to help measure risk.
CARBON LEGISLATION LOW CASE – Assumes the EPA estimates on the social cost of carbon. Specifically, the
low case has is a 5% discount rate average. These costs begin at $11.40 in 2017 and increase to $21.20
by 2037 for a metric ton of CO2.
CARBON LEGISLATION MEDIUM CASE – The price of carbon in Oregon was based on the 2018 California
annual auction reserve price of $14.53 per greenhouse gas emissions allowance while growing by the 5%
plus the rate of inflation as indicated by the program structure section 95911 of the California Cap-and-
Trade Regulation.1 The starting price for Oregon was assumed to be similar to California’s cap and trade
system where the initial floor was set at $17.86 per metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e)

1 Article 5 California Cap on Greenhouse gas emissions and market-based compliance mechanisms.
https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/capandtrade/unofficial_ct_100217.pdf
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 93
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

and begins in January 20212 rising to $51.58 by 2037. Washington State was modeled at $10 per
MTCO2e starting in 2019 and rising to $30 per MTCO2e by 2030.
CARBON LEGISLATION HIGH CASE – Assumes the EPA estimates on the social cost of carbon. Specifically,
the high case includes 95% of results at a 3% discount rate average. These costs begin at $112.20 in 2017
and increase to $174 by 2037 for a metric ton of CO2.
Scenarios
After identifying the above demand drivers and analyzing the various Sensitivities, we have developed
the following demand forecast Scenarios:
AVERAGE CASE – This Scenario we believe represents the most likely average demand forecast modeled.
We assume service territory customer growth rates consistent with the reference case, rolling 20 year
normal weather in each service territory, our expected natural gas price forecast (blend of two consultants,
along with the NYMEX forward strip), expected price elasticity, the CO2 cost adders from our Carbon
Legislation Medium Case Sensitivity, and DSM. The Scenario does not include incremental cost adders
for declining Canadian imports or drilling restrictions beyond what is incorporated in the selected price
forecast.
EXPECTED CASE – This Scenario represents the peak demand forecast. We assume service territory customer
growth rates consistent with the reference case, a weather standard of coldest day on record in each
service territory, our expected natural gas price forecast (blend of two consultants, along with the
NYMEX forward strip), expected price elasticity, DSM, and the CO2 cost adders from our Carbon
Legislation Medium Case Sensitivity.
HIGH GROWTH, LOW PRICE – This Scenario models a rapid return to robust growth in part spurred on by low
energy prices. We assume higher customer growth rates than the reference case, coldest day on record
weather standard, incremental demand from NGV/CNG, our low natural gas price forecast, expected
price elasticity, DSM, and no CO2 adders.
LOW GROWTH, HIGH PRICE – This Scenario models an extended period of slow economic growth in part
resulting from high energy prices. We assume lower customer growth rates than the reference case,
coldest day on record weather standard, our high natural gas price forecast, expected price elasticity,
DSM, and CO2 adders from our Carbon Legislation Medium Case Sensitivity.
ALTERNATE WEATHER STANDARD – This Scenario models all the same assumptions as the Expected Case
Scenario, except for the change in the weather planning standard from coldest day on record to coldest
day in 20 years for each service territory. As noted in the Sensitivity analysis, this change does not affect
the Klamath Falls and La Grande service territories, which have each experienced their coldest day on
record within the last 20 years.
80% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS – This Scenario models the impact of potential consumption curtailment due
to carbon legislation coupled with low energy prices. We assume a straight line reduction in Washington
and Oregon consumption from reference case growth in order to meet 80% below 1990 emission levels

2 Senate Bill 1070 https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2017R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/SB1070
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 94
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

by 2050, along with our low natural gas price forecast rather than our expected natural gas price forecast.
All other assumptions remain the same as our Expected Case Scenario.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 95
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.7: ANNUAL DEMAND, AVERAGE DAY DEMAND AND PEAK DAY
DEMAND (NET OF DSM) – CASE AVERAGE

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h

F
a
l
l
s

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y

Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
1
7
-
2
0
1
8
1,3
0
3
.
3
2

3.
5
7

6.9
0

82
2
.
9
0

2.
2
5

3.
4
3

6,4
8
7
.
8
8

17
.
7
8

34
.
8
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
1
8
-
2
0
1
9
1,3
1
1
.
7
9

3.
5
9

6.9
6

82
8
.
0
2

2.
2
7

3.
4
4

6,5
3
9
.
1
4

17
.
9
2

35
.
1
3

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
1
9
-
2
0
2
0
1,3
2
7
.
4
7

3.
6
4

7.0
2

83
3
.
1
9

2.
2
8

3.
4
5

6,6
1
7
.
8
9

18
.
1
3

35
.
4
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
0
-
2
0
2
1
1,3
2
9
.
5
1

3.
6
4

7.0
8

83
1
.
2
2

2.
2
8

3.
4
6

6,6
3
8
.
3
8

18
.
1
9

35
.
8
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
1
-
2
0
2
2
1,3
3
2
.
0
1

3.
6
5

7.1
0

82
9
.
6
7

2.
2
7

3.
4
5

6,6
6
1
.
4
7

18
.
2
5

35
.
9
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
2
-
2
0
2
3
1,3
3
9
.
0
8

3.
6
7

7.1
5

82
9
.
9
2

2.
2
7

3.
4
6

6,7
0
2
.
9
9

18
.
3
6

36
.
2
5

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
3
-
2
0
2
4
1,3
5
4
.
0
0

3.
7
1

7.2
1

83
3
.
7
9

2.
2
8

3.
4
7

6,7
7
3
.
4
8

18
.
5
6

36
.
5
5

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
4
-
2
0
2
5
1,3
5
3
.
2
0

3.
7
1

7.2
6

83
0
.
0
1

2.
2
7

3.
4
6

6,7
7
2
.
4
0

18
.
5
5

36
.
7
9

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
5
-
2
0
2
6
1,3
6
0
.
2
4

3.
7
3

7.3
1

82
9
.
9
1

2.
2
7

3.
4
7

6,8
0
6
.
3
2

18
.
6
5

37
.
0
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7
1,3
6
6
.
7
0

3.
7
4

7.3
7

82
9
.
6
5

2.
2
7

3.
4
7

6,8
3
8
.
1
1

18
.
7
3

37
.
3
2

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
7
-
2
0
2
8
1,3
7
9
.
6
7

3.
7
8

7.4
2

83
2
.
7
4

2.
2
8

3.
4
8

6,8
9
8
.
8
2

18
.
9
0

37
.
5
8

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
8
-
2
0
2
9
1,3
7
7
.
6
8

3.
7
7

7.4
7

82
8
.
9
3

2.
2
7

3.
4
8

6,8
9
3
.
4
9

18
.
8
9

37
.
8
2

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
9
-
2
0
3
0
1,3
8
2
.
0
5

3.
7
9

7.5
1

82
8
.
3
6

2.
2
7

3.
4
9

6,9
1
6
.
8
9

18
.
9
5

38
.
0
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
0
-
2
0
3
1
1,3
8
6
.
0
9

3.
8
0

7.5
5

82
7
.
5
4

2.
2
7

3.
4
9

6,9
3
7
.
1
3

19
.
0
1

38
.
2
7

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
1
-
2
0
3
2
1,3
9
7
.
4
6

3.
8
3

7.5
9

83
0
.
0
1

2.
2
7

3.
5
0

6,9
8
7
.
2
0

19
.
1
4

38
.
4
7

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
2
-
2
0
3
3
1,3
9
4
.
0
9

3.
8
2

7.6
4

82
5
.
2
7

2.
2
6

3.
4
9

6,9
6
9
.
8
6

19
.
1
0

38
.
6
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
3
-
2
0
3
4
1,3
9
8
.
0
4

3.
8
3

7.6
8

82
3
.
8
6

2.
2
6

3.
5
0

6,9
8
3
.
5
2

19
.
1
3

38
.
8
4

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
4
-
2
0
3
5
1,4
0
1
.
9
4

3.
8
4

7.7
2

82
2
.
3
8

2.
2
5

3.
5
0

6,9
9
5
.
9
4

19
.
1
7

39
.
0
2

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
5
-
2
0
3
6
1,4
1
3
.
5
8

3.
8
7

7.7
7

82
4
.
3
6

2.
2
6

3.
5
1

7,0
4
1
.
2
7

19
.
2
9

39
.
1
9

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
6
-
2
0
3
7
1,4
1
0
.
1
2

3.
8
6

7.8
1

81
9
.
1
6

2.
2
4

3.
5
0

7,0
1
9
.
8
0

19
.
2
3

39
.
3
5

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d

To
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

8
,
6
1
4
.
1
0

23
.
6
0

45
.
1
3

17
,
0
4
1
.
6
4

46
.
6
9

79
.
0
8

8,6
1
7
.
6
2

23
.
6
1

38
.
2
7

34
,
2
7
3
.
3
5

93
.
9
0

16
2
.
4
8

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

8
,
6
7
8
.
9
5

23
.
7
8

45
.
5
3

17
,
2
0
7
.
1
8

47
.
1
4

79
.
9
0

8,6
9
3
.
1
9

23
.
8
2

38
.
6
5

34
,
5
7
9
.
3
2

94
.
7
4

16
4
.
0
7

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

8
,
7
7
8
.
5
4

24
.
0
5

45
.
9
3

17
,
3
7
7
.
3
7

47
.
6
1

80
.
4
9

8,7
9
5
.
7
1

24
.
1
0

39
.
0
2

34
,
9
5
1
.
6
1

95
.
7
6

16
5
.
4
4

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

8
,
7
9
9
.
1
0

24
.
1
1

46
.
3
3

17
,
3
6
8
.
5
2

47
.
5
8

80
.
9
4

8,8
1
6
.
3
8

24
.
1
5

39
.
3
3

34
,
9
8
4
.
0
0

95
.
8
5

16
6
.
6
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

8
,
8
2
3
.
1
6

24
.
1
7

46
.
5
1

17
,
4
0
4
.
4
8

47
.
6
8

81
.
3
2

8,8
4
6
.
3
1

24
.
2
4

39
.
5
7

35
,
0
7
3
.
9
4

96
.
0
9

16
7
.
4
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

8
,
8
7
1
.
9
9

24
.
3
1

46
.
8
6

17
,
3
8
8
.
0
0

47
.
6
4

81
.
5
3

8,8
5
3
.
3
4

24
.
2
6

39
.
7
3

35
,
1
1
3
.
3
3

96
.
2
0

16
8
.
1
2

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

8
,
9
6
1
.
2
7

24
.
5
5

47
.
2
3

17
,
5
4
9
.
4
4

48
.
0
8

82
.
2
3

8,9
5
1
.
2
3

24
.
5
2

40
.
1
5

35
,
4
6
1
.
9
5

97
.
1
6

16
9
.
6
1

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

8
,
9
5
5
.
6
0

24
.
5
4

47
.
5
1

17
,
4
1
5
.
0
0

47
.
7
1

82
.
1
6

8,8
9
0
.
2
7

24
.
3
6

40
.
1
3

35
,
2
6
0
.
8
8

96
.
6
1

16
9
.
8
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

8
,
9
9
6
.
4
7

24
.
6
5

47
.
8
4

17
,
3
2
9
.
2
8

47
.
4
8

82
.
2
0

8,8
5
1
.
4
2

24
.
2
5

40
.
1
6

35
,
1
7
7
.
1
7

96
.
3
8

17
0
.
2
1

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

9
,
0
3
4
.
4
5

24
.
7
5

48
.
1
6

17
,
2
2
0
.
7
8

47
.
1
8

82
.
1
8

8,8
0
3
.
0
8

24
.
1
2

40
.
1
7

35
,
0
5
8
.
3
2

96
.
0
5

17
0
.
5
1

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

9
,
1
1
1
.
2
4

24
.
9
6

48
.
4
8

17
,
1
7
9
.
9
5

47
.
0
7

82
.
3
1

8,7
9
0
.
5
5

24
.
0
8

40
.
2
7

35
,
0
8
1
.
7
4

96
.
1
1

17
1
.
0
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

9
,
1
0
0
.
1
0

24
.
9
3

48
.
7
7

16
,
9
7
1
.
5
8

46
.
5
0

82
.
0
2

8,6
9
9
.
2
4

23
.
8
3

40
.
1
7

34
,
7
7
0
.
9
3

95
.
2
6

17
0
.
9
7

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

9
,
1
2
7
.
3
0

25
.
0
1

49
.
0
5

16
,
8
4
8
.
1
1

46
.
1
6

81
.
9
5

8,6
5
3
.
0
4

23
.
7
1

40
.
2
0

34
,
6
2
8
.
4
5

94
.
8
7

17
1
.
2
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

9
,
1
5
0
.
7
6

25
.
0
7

49
.
3
2

16
,
7
3
6
.
4
9

45
.
8
5

81
.
9
0

8,6
1
8
.
2
1

23
.
6
1

40
.
2
6

34
,
5
0
5
.
4
6

94
.
5
4

17
1
.
4
8

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

9
,
2
1
4
.
6
7

25
.
2
5

49
.
5
7

16
,
7
2
4
.
4
3

45
.
8
2

82
.
2
1

8,6
3
8
.
5
3

23
.
6
7

40
.
5
3

34
,
5
7
7
.
6
2

94
.
7
3

17
2
.
3
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

9
,
1
8
9
.
2
3

25
.
1
8

49
.
8
0

16
,
5
6
4
.
5
1

45
.
3
8

81
.
9
5

8,5
9
0
.
6
3

23
.
5
4

40
.
5
2

34
,
3
4
4
.
3
8

94
.
0
9

17
2
.
2
6

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

9
,
2
0
5
.
4
2

25
.
2
2

50
.
0
2

16
,
5
0
6
.
3
4

45
.
2
2

82
.
0
5

8,5
9
8
.
6
7

23
.
5
6

40
.
7
2

34
,
3
1
0
.
4
3

94
.
0
0

17
2
.
7
9

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

9
,
2
2
0
.
2
6

25
.
2
6

50
.
2
4

16
,
4
6
8
.
0
4

45
.
1
2

82
.
2
0

8,6
2
0
.
2
6

23
.
6
2

40
.
9
6

34
,
3
0
8
.
5
6

94
.
0
0

17
3
.
4
0

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

9
,
2
7
9
.
2
0

25
.
4
2

50
.
4
6

16
,
5
3
2
.
3
6

45
.
2
9

82
.
7
9

8,6
9
6
.
4
3

23
.
8
3

41
.
4
4

34
,
5
0
8
.
0
0

94
.
5
4

17
4
.
6
9

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e
20
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

9
,
2
4
9
.
0
8

25
.
3
4

50
.
6
6

16
,
4
3
9
.
6
0

45
.
0
4

82
.
6
3

8,6
9
6
.
2
6

23
.
8
3

41
.
5
5

34
,
3
8
4
.
9
4

94
.
2
1

17
4
.
8
4

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 96
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.7: ANNUAL DEMAND, AVERAGE DAY DEMAND AND PEAK DAY
DEMAND (NET OF DSM) – CASE HIGH

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h

F
a
l
l
s

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y

Kl
a
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
1
7
-
2
0
1
8
1,
3
5
2
.
1
5

3.7
0

13
.
3
4

85
7
.
1
0

2.3
5

7.
5
9

6,
7
8
9
.
5
3

18
.
6
0

75
.
3
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
1
8
-
2
0
1
9
1,
3
6
7
.
6
4

3.7
5

13
.
5
2

87
3
.
3
5

2.3
9

7.
6
8

6,
8
7
2
.
1
0

18
.
8
3

76
.
4
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
1
9
-
2
0
2
0
1,
3
9
0
.
1
4

3.8
1

13
.
7
1

89
2
.
0
1

2.4
4

7.
7
7

6,
9
8
1
.
9
9

19
.
1
3

77
.
5
5

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
0
-
2
0
2
1
1,
3
9
8
.
9
9

3.8
3

13
.
9
0

90
3
.
7
7

2.4
8

7.
8
6

7,
0
3
3
.
3
5

19
.
2
7

78
.
6
4

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
1
-
2
0
2
2
1,
4
1
4
.
6
6

3.8
8

14
.
0
9

91
8
.
8
9

2.5
2

7.
9
5

7,
1
1
4
.
3
6

19
.
4
9

79
.
7
5

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
2
-
2
0
2
3
1,
4
3
0
.
5
3

3.9
2

14
.
2
8

93
3
.
7
1

2.5
6

8.
0
4

7,
1
9
4
.
2
1

19
.
7
1

80
.
8
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
3
-
2
0
2
4
1,
4
5
3
.
3
8

3.9
8

14
.
4
7

95
1
.
7
6

2.6
1

8.
1
2

7,
2
9
6
.
9
0

19
.
9
9

81
.
9
1

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
4
-
2
0
2
5
1,
4
5
9
.
7
9

4.0
0

14
.
6
5

96
1
.
3
1

2.6
3

8.
1
9

7,
3
2
4
.
3
0

20
.
0
7

82
.
7
9

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
5
-
2
0
2
6
1,
4
7
4
.
4
6

4.0
4

14
.
8
4

97
4
.
6
9

2.6
7

8.
2
7

7,
3
8
8
.
8
5

20
.
2
4

83
.
7
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7
1,
4
8
8
.
4
3

4.0
8

15
.
0
2

98
8
.
2
7

2.7
1

8.
3
5

7,
4
5
1
.
5
1

20
.
4
2

84
.
7
5

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
7
-
2
0
2
8
1,
5
0
9
.
1
6

4.1
3

15
.
2
0

1,
0
0
6
.
4
4

2.7
6

8.
4
4

7,
5
4
4
.
6
6

20
.
6
7

85
.
7
2

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
8
-
2
0
2
9
1,
5
1
3
.
6
8

4.1
5

15
.
3
7

1,
0
1
7
.
3
8

2.7
9

8.
5
3

7,
5
6
8
.
1
4

20
.
7
3

86
.
6
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
9
-
2
0
3
0
1,
5
2
4
.
4
9

4.1
8

15
.
5
4

1,
0
3
1
.
9
3

2.8
3

8.
6
2

7,
6
2
1
.
4
1

20
.
8
8

87
.
5
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
0
-
2
0
3
1
1,
5
3
4
.
7
8

4.2
0

15
.
6
9

1,
0
4
5
.
8
4

2.8
7

8.
7
1

7,
6
7
0
.
4
7

21
.
0
1

88
.
4
4

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
1
-
2
0
3
2
1,
5
5
3
.
0
9

4.2
6

15
.
8
5

1,
0
6
3
.
3
7

2.9
1

8.
8
0

7,
7
5
0
.
4
2

21
.
2
3

89
.
2
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
2
-
2
0
3
3
1,
5
5
5
.
8
2

4.2
6

16
.
0
1

1,
0
7
2
.
1
5

2.9
4

8.
8
8

7,
7
5
8
.
3
3

21
.
2
6

90
.
0
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
3
-
2
0
3
4
1,
5
6
6
.
5
0

4.2
9

16
.
1
7

1,
0
8
4
.
4
9

2.9
7

8.
9
5

7,
7
9
8
.
8
4

21
.
3
7

90
.
8
5

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
4
-
2
0
3
5
1,
5
7
7
.
1
5

4.3
2

16
.
3
3

1,
0
9
6
.
5
9

3.0
0

9.
0
3

7,
8
3
7
.
6
9

21
.
4
7

91
.
6
1

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
5
-
2
0
3
6
1,
5
9
6
.
3
3

4.3
7

16
.
4
9

1,
1
1
2
.
6
6

3.0
5

9.
1
1

7,
9
1
1
.
8
4

21
.
6
8

92
.
3
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
6
-
2
0
3
7
1,
5
9
9
.
2
1

4.3
8

16
.
6
5

1,
1
1
9
.
8
3

3.0
7

9.
1
7

7,
9
1
4
.
3
1

21
.
6
8

93
.
1
0

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d

To
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

8
,
9
9
8
.
7
9

24
.
6
5

96
.
2
9

17
,
7
6
4
.
4
6

48
.
6
7

18
9
.
2
8

8,
9
8
1
.
1
2

24
.
6
1

90
.
2
3

35
,
7
4
4
.
3
6

97
.
9
3

37
5
.
8
0

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

9
,
1
1
3
.
1
0

24
.
9
7

97
.
6
8

18
,
0
1
4
.
0
8

49
.
3
5

19
2
.
3
3

9,
1
0
8
.
4
1

24
.
9
5

91
.
7
6

36
,
2
3
5
.
5
8

99
.
2
8

38
1
.
7
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

9
,
2
6
4
.
1
4

25
.
3
8

99
.
0
4

18
,
2
9
9
.
6
8

50
.
1
4

19
5
.
2
9

9,
2
6
7
.
2
8

25
.
3
9

93
.
3
1

36
,
8
3
1
.
1
0

10
0
.
9
1

38
7
.
6
3

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

9
,
3
3
6
.
1
0

25
.
5
8

10
0
.
4
1

18
,
4
0
7
.
0
6

50
.
4
3

19
8
.
0
9

9,
3
4
6
.
4
3

25
.
6
1

94
.
8
7

37
,
0
8
9
.
5
9

10
1
.
6
2

39
3
.
3
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

9
,
4
4
7
.
9
1

25
.
8
8

10
1
.
7
9

18
,
5
4
1
.
7
9

50
.
8
0

20
0
.
6
4

9,
4
4
4
.
6
8

25
.
8
8

96
.
4
2

37
,
4
3
4
.
3
7

10
2
.
5
6

39
8
.
8
5

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

9
,
5
5
8
.
4
5

26
.
1
9

10
3
.
1
8

18
,
6
2
9
.
8
7

51
.
0
4

20
3
.
0
2

9,
5
2
1
.
6
0

26
.
0
9

97
.
9
2

37
,
7
0
9
.
9
3

10
3
.
3
1

40
4
.
1
2

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

9
,
7
0
2
.
0
4

26
.
5
8

10
4
.
5
0

18
,
8
7
9
.
3
8

51
.
7
2

20
5
.
7
7

9,
6
8
1
.
9
3

26
.
5
3

99
.
5
9

38
,
2
6
3
.
3
5

10
4
.
8
3

40
9
.
8
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

9
,
7
4
5
.
4
0

26
.
7
0

10
5
.
6
2

18
,
8
2
8
.
2
7

51
.
5
8

20
7
.
5
8

9,
6
7
9
.
7
4

26
.
5
2

10
0
.
7
1

38
,
2
5
3
.
4
1

10
4
.
8
0

41
3
.
9
1

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

9
,
8
3
8
.
0
0

26
.
9
5

10
6
.
8
7

18
,
8
2
7
.
9
1

51
.
5
8

20
9
.
6
4

9,
7
0
0
.
2
8

26
.
5
8

10
1
.
9
6

38
,
3
6
6
.
1
8

10
5
.
1
1

41
8
.
4
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

9
,
9
2
8
.
2
1

27
.
2
0

10
8
.
1
2

18
,
8
0
3
.
9
3

51
.
5
2

21
1
.
6
1

9,
7
1
1
.
4
2

26
.
6
1

10
3
.
1
6

38
,
4
4
3
.
5
7

10
5
.
3
2

42
2
.
8
9

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

1
0
,
0
6
0
.
2
6

27
.
5
6

10
9
.
3
6

18
,
8
5
0
.
9
7

51
.
6
5

21
3
.
7
0

9,
7
6
1
.
6
7

26
.
7
4

10
4
.
4
8

38
,
6
7
2
.
9
0

10
5
.
9
5

42
7
.
5
4

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

1
0
,
0
9
9
.
2
1

27
.
6
7

11
0
.
5
6

18
,
7
2
1
.
0
1

51
.
2
9

21
5
.
3
5

9,
7
2
8
.
9
9

26
.
6
5

10
5
.
6
1

38
,
5
4
9
.
2
0

10
5
.
6
1

43
1
.
5
2

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

1
0
,
1
7
7
.
8
3

27
.
8
8

11
1
.
7
3

18
,
6
7
8
.
9
6

51
.
1
8

21
7
.
1
7

9,
7
4
4
.
7
4

26
.
7
0

10
6
.
8
7

38
,
6
0
1
.
5
4

10
5
.
7
6

43
5
.
7
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

1
0
,
2
5
1
.
0
9

28
.
0
9

11
2
.
8
5

18
,
6
4
7
.
2
4

51
.
0
9

21
8
.
9
7

9,
7
7
3
.
5
7

26
.
7
8

10
8
.
2
0

38
,
6
7
1
.
9
0

10
5
.
9
5

44
0
.
0
2

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

1
0
,
3
6
6
.
8
8

28
.
4
0

11
3
.
9
2

18
,
7
1
9
.
3
9

51
.
2
9

22
1
.
1
0

9,
8
6
3
.
0
1

27
.
0
2

10
9
.
7
7

38
,
9
4
9
.
2
8

10
6
.
7
1

44
4
.
7
9

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

1
0
,
3
8
6
.
3
0

28
.
4
6

11
4
.
9
6

18
,
6
3
1
.
7
1

51
.
0
5

22
2
.
6
2

9,
8
7
8
.
9
3

27
.
0
7

11
1
.
0
9

38
,
8
9
6
.
9
4

10
6
.
5
7

44
8
.
6
7

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

1
0
,
4
4
9
.
8
2

28
.
6
3

11
5
.
9
7

18
,
6
4
9
.
8
6

51
.
1
0

22
4
.
4
7

9,
9
5
6
.
1
1

27
.
2
8

11
2
.
6
5

39
,
0
5
5
.
7
9

10
7
.
0
0

45
3
.
0
9

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

1
0
,
5
1
1
.
4
3

28
.
8
0

11
6
.
9
7

18
,
6
8
6
.
8
6

51
.
2
0

22
6
.
3
4

10
,
0
4
8
.
5
6

27
.
5
3

11
4
.
2
8

39
,
2
4
6
.
8
4

10
7
.
5
3

45
7
.
5
8

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

1
0
,
6
2
0
.
8
3

29
.
1
0

11
7
.
9
6

18
,
8
3
2
.
6
3

51
.
6
0

22
8
.
6
4

10
,
2
0
2
.
0
4

27
.
9
5

11
6
.
1
7

39
,
6
5
5
.
5
0

10
8
.
6
5

46
2
.
7
6

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

1
0
,
6
3
3
.
3
6

29
.
1
3

11
8
.
9
2

18
,
8
0
7
.
8
1

51
.
5
3

23
0
.
1
7

10
,
2
7
1
.
9
3

28
.
1
4

11
7
.
7
3

39
,
7
1
3
.
0
9

10
8
.
8
0

46
6
.
8
2

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 97
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.7: ANNUAL DEMAND, AVERAGE DAY DEMAND AND PEAK DAY
DEMAND (NET OF DSM) – CASE LOW

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h

F
a
l
l
s

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y

Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
1
7
-
2
0
1
8
1,3
2
9
.
1
6

3.6
4

13
.
1
4

84
3
.
6
0

2.
3
1

7.4
7

6,6
8
4
.
2
0

18
.
3
1

74
.
3
3

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
1
8
-
2
0
1
9
1,3
3
1
.
6
6

3.6
5

13
.
2
0

83
5
.
4
9

2.
2
9

7.4
4

6,7
1
0
.
4
7

18
.
3
8

74
.
8
3

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
1
9
-
2
0
2
0
1,3
3
9
.
4
9

3.6
7

13
.
2
5

82
5
.
7
8

2.
2
6

7.4
1

6,7
5
5
.
1
2

18
.
5
1

75
.
1
8

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
0
-
2
0
2
1
1,3
3
3
.
9
9

3.6
5

13
.
3
0

81
2
.
1
6

2.
2
3

7.3
6

6,7
4
3
.
2
4

18
.
4
7

75
.
5
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
1
-
2
0
2
2
1,3
3
0
.
3
5

3.6
4

13
.
2
9

80
2
.
7
1

2.
2
0

7.3
3

6,7
4
0
.
6
7

18
.
4
7

75
.
6
3

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
2
-
2
0
2
3
1,3
3
0
.
7
0

3.6
5

13
.
3
4

79
6
.
1
8

2.
1
8

7.3
2

6,7
5
5
.
2
7

18
.
5
1

76
.
0
0

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
3
-
2
0
2
4
1,3
3
7
.
8
5

3.6
7

13
.
3
9

79
3
.
6
2

2.
1
7

7.3
2

6,7
9
6
.
0
3

18
.
6
2

76
.
3
6

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
4
-
2
0
2
5
1,3
3
0
.
8
1

3.6
5

13
.
4
3

78
4
.
9
7

2.
1
5

7.3
1

6,7
7
2
.
0
1

18
.
5
5

76
.
6
6

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
5
-
2
0
2
6
1,3
3
1
.
5
9

3.6
5

13
.
4
9

78
0
.
2
6

2.
1
4

7.3
2

6,7
8
2
.
8
4

18
.
5
8

77
.
0
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7
1,3
3
1
.
9
5

3.6
5

13
.
5
5

77
5
.
9
1

2.
1
3

7.3
2

6,7
9
1
.
4
5

18
.
6
1

77
.
4
4

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
7
-
2
0
2
8
1,3
3
8
.
6
4

3.6
7

13
.
6
1

77
4
.
0
4

2.
1
2

7.3
2

6,8
2
7
.
6
4

18
.
7
1

77
.
8
2

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
8
-
2
0
2
9
1,3
3
0
.
4
5

3.6
5

13
.
6
5

76
4
.
8
8

2.
1
0

7.3
1

6,7
9
6
.
3
4

18
.
6
2

78
.
1
1

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
2
9
-
2
0
3
0
1,3
2
9
.
7
4

3.6
4

13
.
7
0

75
9
.
7
8

2.
0
8

7.3
0

6,7
9
7
.
5
4

18
.
6
2

78
.
4
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
0
-
2
0
3
1
1,3
2
8
.
9
2

3.6
4

13
.
7
5

75
5
.
7
1

2.
0
7

7.3
0

6,7
9
6
.
5
2

18
.
6
2

78
.
7
7

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
1
-
2
0
3
2
1,3
3
5
.
4
3

3.6
6

13
.
8
1

75
5
.
8
1

2.
0
7

7.3
1

6,8
2
4
.
2
0

18
.
7
0

79
.
0
7

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
2
-
2
0
3
3
1,3
2
8
.
4
5

3.6
4

13
.
8
6

74
9
.
6
3

2.
0
5

7.3
0

6,7
8
8
.
7
0

18
.
6
0

79
.
3
6

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
3
-
2
0
3
4
1,3
2
8
.
2
0

3.6
4

13
.
9
2

74
6
.
8
6

2.
0
5

7.3
0

6,7
8
2
.
7
2

18
.
5
8

79
.
6
3

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
4
-
2
0
3
5
1,3
2
7
.
9
2

3.6
4

13
.
9
7

74
4
.
2
3

2.
0
4

7.3
1

6,7
7
5
.
8
4

18
.
5
6

79
.
8
9

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
5
-
2
0
3
6
1,3
3
4
.
7
0

3.6
6

14
.
0
3

74
4
.
9
8

2.
0
4

7.3
2

6,7
9
9
.
7
2

18
.
6
3

80
.
1
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s
20
3
6
-
2
0
3
7
1,3
2
7
.
5
1

3.6
4

14
.
0
8

73
9
.
3
2

2.
0
3

7.3
2

6,7
6
1
.
3
2

18
.
5
2

80
.
4
0

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d

To
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

8
,
8
5
6
.
9
6

24
.
2
7

94
.
9
4

17
,
4
9
7
.
9
3

47
.
9
4

18
6
.
5
3

8,8
1
1
.
5
2

24
.
1
4

88
.
5
9

35
,
1
6
6
.
4
0

96
.
3
5

37
0
.
0
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

8
,
8
7
7
.
6
2

24
.
3
2

95
.
4
8

17
,
6
0
1
.
7
5

48
.
2
2

18
8
.
0
6

8,8
3
7
.
3
3

24
.
2
1

89
.
1
1

35
,
3
1
6
.
7
0

96
.
7
6

37
2
.
6
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

8
,
9
2
0
.
3
9

24
.
4
4

95
.
8
4

17
,
6
9
3
.
2
6

48
.
4
7

18
8
.
8
8

8,8
7
7
.
3
2

24
.
3
2

89
.
4
6

35
,
4
9
0
.
9
7

97
.
2
4

37
4
.
1
8

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

8
,
8
8
9
.
3
8

24
.
3
5

96
.
2
1

17
,
6
1
1
.
9
3

48
.
2
5

18
9
.
5
5

8,8
3
7
.
3
0

24
.
2
1

89
.
8
0

35
,
3
3
8
.
6
1

96
.
8
2

37
5
.
5
7

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

8
,
8
7
3
.
7
4

24
.
3
1

96
.
2
5

17
,
5
7
6
.
0
4

48
.
1
5

19
0
.
2
6

8,8
1
1
.
0
7

24
.
1
4

90
.
0
8

35
,
2
6
0
.
8
5

96
.
6
1

37
6
.
5
9

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

8
,
8
8
2
.
1
4

24
.
3
3

96
.
6
6

17
,
4
9
0
.
0
7

47
.
9
2

19
0
.
7
4

8,7
6
2
.
4
2

24
.
0
1

90
.
3
0

35
,
1
3
4
.
6
3

96
.
2
6

37
7
.
7
0

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

8
,
9
2
7
.
5
1

24
.
4
6

97
.
0
7

17
,
5
6
8
.
3
2

48
.
1
3

19
1
.
7
0

8,8
0
0
.
5
0

24
.
1
1

90
.
7
7

35
,
2
9
6
.
3
3

96
.
7
0

37
9
.
5
4

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

8
,
8
8
7
.
7
8

24
.
3
5

97
.
4
0

17
,
3
7
0
.
4
9

47
.
5
9

19
1
.
9
0

8,6
9
2
.
1
6

23
.
8
1

90
.
7
9

34
,
9
5
0
.
4
3

95
.
7
5

38
0
.
0
9

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

8
,
8
9
4
.
7
0

24
.
3
7

97
.
8
6

17
,
2
2
1
.
5
0

47
.
1
8

19
2
.
4
1

8,6
0
5
.
2
4

23
.
5
8

90
.
9
7

34
,
7
2
1
.
4
4

95
.
1
3

38
1
.
2
5

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

8
,
8
9
9
.
3
1

24
.
3
8

98
.
3
2

17
,
0
5
0
.
5
9

46
.
7
1

19
2
.
8
5

8,5
0
9
.
0
5

23
.
3
1

91
.
1
2

34
,
4
5
8
.
9
5

94
.
4
1

38
2
.
2
8

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

8
,
9
4
0
.
3
2

24
.
4
9

98
.
7
5

16
,
9
4
4
.
5
1

46
.
4
2

19
3
.
4
2

8,4
4
5
.
7
7

23
.
1
4

91
.
3
6

34
,
3
3
0
.
6
0

94
.
0
6

38
3
.
5
3

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

8
,
8
9
1
.
6
7

24
.
3
6

99
.
0
6

16
,
6
6
4
.
9
4

45
.
6
6

19
3
.
3
7

8,3
0
1
.
1
8

22
.
7
4

91
.
3
0

33
,
8
5
7
.
7
9

92
.
7
6

38
3
.
7
4

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

8
,
8
8
7
.
0
6

24
.
3
5

99
.
4
5

16
,
4
8
1
.
9
2

45
.
1
6

19
3
.
7
2

8,2
0
5
.
9
9

22
.
4
8

91
.
4
6

33
,
5
7
4
.
9
7

91
.
9
9

38
4
.
6
3

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

8
,
8
8
1
.
1
6

24
.
3
3

99
.
8
2

16
,
3
1
2
.
1
0

44
.
6
9

19
4
.
0
8

8,1
2
1
.
1
5

22
.
2
5

91
.
6
7

33
,
3
1
4
.
4
1

91
.
2
7

38
5
.
5
7

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

8
,
9
1
5
.
4
4

24
.
4
3

10
0
.
1
8

16
,
2
3
8
.
0
5

44
.
4
9

19
4
.
7
9

8,0
8
6
.
7
4

22
.
1
6

92
.
0
7

33
,
2
4
0
.
2
3

91
.
0
7

38
7
.
0
4

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

8
,
8
6
6
.
7
8

24
.
2
9

10
0
.
5
2

16
,
0
2
6
.
7
8

43
.
9
1

19
4
.
9
1

7,9
9
0
.
1
0

21
.
8
9

92
.
2
0

32
,
8
8
3
.
6
6

90
.
0
9

38
7
.
6
4

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

8
,
8
5
7
.
7
8

24
.
2
7

10
0
.
8
5

15
,
9
1
3
.
6
3

43
.
6
0

19
5
.
3
9

7,9
4
4
.
8
2

21
.
7
7

92
.
5
4

32
,
7
1
6
.
2
3

89
.
6
3

38
8
.
7
9

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

8
,
8
4
7
.
9
9

24
.
2
4

10
1
.
1
7

15
,
8
2
1
.
2
7

43
.
3
5

19
5
.
9
1

7,9
1
2
.
1
1

21
.
6
8

92
.
9
3

32
,
5
8
1
.
3
7

89
.
2
6

39
0
.
0
1

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

8
,
8
7
9
.
3
9

24
.
3
3

10
1
.
4
9

15
,
8
2
6
.
2
3

43
.
3
6

19
6
.
8
7

8,0
5
3
.
3
4

22
.
0
6

91
.
4
0

32
,
7
5
8
.
9
6

89
.
7
5

38
9
.
7
6

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

8
,
8
2
8
.
1
6

24
.
1
9

10
1
.
8
0

15
,
6
8
6
.
0
5

42
.
9
8

19
7
.
0
7

7,7
5
1
.
3
8

21
.
2
4

90
.
7
0

32
,
2
6
5
.
5
9

88
.
4
0

38
9
.
5
7

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 98
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.7: ANNUAL DEMAND, AVERAGE DAY DEMAND AND PEAK DAY
DEMAND (NET OF DSM) – CASE COLDEST IN 20

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h

F
a
l
l
s

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y

Kl
a
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
1
7
-
2
0
1
8
1,
3
4
0
.
6
9

3.6
7

13
.
2
4

84
2
.
5
6

2.3
1

6.
7
4

6,
6
8
3
.
4
9

18
.
3
1

65
.
0
2

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
1
8
-
2
0
1
9
1,
3
4
9
.
5
8

3.7
0

13
.
3
6

84
7
.
7
9

2.3
2

6.
7
7

6,
7
3
7
.
0
7

18
.
4
6

65
.
7
1

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
1
9
-
2
0
2
0
1,
3
6
5
.
6
4

3.7
4

13
.
4
9

85
3
.
0
7

2.3
4

6.
8
0

6,
8
1
8
.
0
2

18
.
6
8

66
.
3
8

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
0
-
2
0
2
1
1,
3
6
8
.
0
8

3.7
5

13
.
6
2

85
1
.
2
1

2.3
3

6.
8
2

6,
8
4
0
.
7
5

18
.
7
4

67
.
0
6

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
1
-
2
0
2
2
1,
3
7
0
.
7
5

3.7
6

13
.
6
7

84
9
.
6
6

2.3
3

6.
8
2

6,
8
6
4
.
9
0

18
.
8
1

67
.
3
7

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
2
-
2
0
2
3
1,
3
7
8
.
1
7

3.7
8

13
.
7
8

84
9
.
9
9

2.3
3

6.
8
4

6,
9
0
8
.
4
0

18
.
9
3

67
.
9
7

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
3
-
2
0
2
4
1,
3
9
3
.
4
9

3.8
2

13
.
9
1

85
3
.
9
6

2.3
4

6.
8
6

6,
9
8
0
.
9
8

19
.
1
3

68
.
6
0

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
4
-
2
0
2
5
1,
3
9
3
.
0
3

3.8
2

14
.
0
2

85
0
.
2
5

2.3
3

6.
8
7

6,
9
8
1
.
5
9

19
.
1
3

69
.
0
9

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
5
-
2
0
2
6
1,
4
0
0
.
4
6

3.8
4

14
.
1
4

85
0
.
2
6

2.3
3

6.
9
0

7,
0
1
7
.
4
9

19
.
2
3

69
.
6
7

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7
1,
4
0
7
.
3
1

3.8
6

14
.
2
6

85
0
.
0
9

2.3
3

6.
9
2

7,
0
5
1
.
2
6

19
.
3
2

70
.
2
4

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
7
-
2
0
2
8
1,
4
2
0
.
6
6

3.8
9

14
.
3
7

85
3
.
2
9

2.3
4

6.
9
4

7,
1
1
3
.
9
3

19
.
4
9

70
.
8
0

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
8
-
2
0
2
9
1,
4
1
9
.
0
4

3.8
9

14
.
4
8

84
9
.
6
0

2.3
3

6.
9
6

7,
1
1
0
.
4
9

19
.
4
8

71
.
3
4

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
2
9
-
2
0
3
0
1,
4
2
3
.
7
6

3.9
0

14
.
5
9

84
9
.
1
4

2.3
3

6.
9
9

7,
1
3
5
.
7
4

19
.
5
5

71
.
8
6

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
0
-
2
0
3
1
1,
4
2
8
.
1
5

3.9
1

14
.
6
9

84
8
.
4
2

2.3
2

7.
0
1

7,
1
5
7
.
7
7

19
.
6
1

72
.
3
5

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
1
-
2
0
3
2
1,
4
3
9
.
8
6

3.9
4

14
.
7
9

85
1
.
0
0

2.3
3

7.
0
3

7,
2
0
9
.
5
4

19
.
7
5

72
.
8
2

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
2
-
2
0
3
3
1,
4
3
6
.
8
5

3.9
4

14
.
8
9

84
6
.
3
7

2.3
2

7.
0
5

7,
1
9
3
.
8
5

19
.
7
1

73
.
2
6

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
3
-
2
0
3
4
1,
4
4
1
.
1
4

3.9
5

15
.
0
0

84
5
.
0
5

2.3
2

7.
0
6

7,
2
0
9
.
1
1

19
.
7
5

73
.
6
9

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
4
-
2
0
3
5
1,
4
4
5
.
3
9

3.9
6

15
.
1
0

84
3
.
6
8

2.3
1

7.
0
8

7,
2
2
3
.
0
9

19
.
7
9

74
.
1
0

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
5
-
2
0
3
6
1,
4
5
7
.
3
8

3.9
9

15
.
2
0

84
5
.
7
5

2.3
2

7.
1
1

7,
2
6
9
.
9
6

19
.
9
2

74
.
5
1

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d
20
3
6
-
2
0
3
7
1,
4
5
4
.
2
8

3.9
8

15
.
3
0

84
0
.
6
5

2.3
0

7.
1
1

7,
2
5
0
.
0
3

19
.
8
6

74
.
9
2

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d

To
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

8
,
8
6
6
.
7
4

24
.
2
9

85
.
0
0

17
,
5
7
7
.
6
5

48
.
1
6

17
5
.
1
1

8,
8
7
3
.
2
5

24
.
3
1

83
.
4
1

35
,
3
1
7
.
6
5

96
.
7
6

34
3
.
5
2

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

8
,
9
3
4
.
4
3

24
.
4
8

85
.
8
4

17
,
7
5
0
.
6
8

48
.
6
3

17
7
.
1
9

8,
9
5
2
.
1
7

24
.
5
3

84
.
3
7

35
,
6
3
7
.
2
9

97
.
6
4

34
7
.
4
1

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

9
,
0
3
6
.
7
4

24
.
7
6

86
.
6
7

17
,
9
2
6
.
5
0

49
.
1
1

17
8
.
8
0

9,
0
5
8
.
0
7

24
.
8
2

85
.
3
3

36
,
0
2
1
.
3
2

98
.
6
9

35
0
.
8
0

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

9
,
0
6
0
.
0
5

24
.
8
2

87
.
5
0

17
,
9
2
3
.
0
3

49
.
1
0

18
0
.
2
1

9,
0
8
2
.
2
6

24
.
8
8

86
.
2
7

36
,
0
6
5
.
3
4

98
.
8
1

35
3
.
9
8

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

9
,
0
8
5
.
3
1

24
.
8
9

87
.
8
6

17
,
9
6
4
.
8
1

49
.
2
2

18
1
.
6
2

9,
1
1
5
.
4
8

24
.
9
7

87
.
0
8

36
,
1
6
5
.
6
0

99
.
0
8

35
6
.
5
6

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

9
,
1
3
6
.
5
5

25
.
0
3

88
.
5
9

17
,
9
5
3
.
7
0

49
.
1
9

18
2
.
7
8

9,
1
2
5
.
8
1

25
.
0
0

87
.
8
2

36
,
2
1
6
.
0
7

99
.
2
2

35
9
.
1
9

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

9
,
2
2
8
.
4
3

25
.
2
8

89
.
3
7

18
,
1
2
1
.
2
6

49
.
6
5

18
4
.
5
7

9,
2
2
7
.
1
8

25
.
2
8

88
.
8
4

36
,
5
7
6
.
8
7

10
0
.
2
1

36
2
.
7
8

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

9
,
2
2
4
.
8
7

25
.
2
7

89
.
9
8

17
,
9
9
1
.
9
2

49
.
2
9

18
5
.
4
1

9,
1
6
9
.
0
7

25
.
1
2

89
.
3
2

36
,
3
8
5
.
8
5

99
.
6
9

36
4
.
7
1

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

9
,
2
6
8
.
2
1

25
.
3
9

90
.
7
1

17
,
9
1
2
.
1
7

49
.
0
7

18
6
.
5
1

9,
1
3
3
.
5
3

25
.
0
2

89
.
9
3

36
,
3
1
3
.
9
1

99
.
4
9

36
7
.
1
5

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

9
,
3
0
8
.
6
6

25
.
5
0

91
.
4
2

17
,
8
0
9
.
5
3

48
.
7
9

18
7
.
5
3

9,
0
8
8
.
4
6

24
.
9
0

90
.
5
1

36
,
2
0
6
.
6
6

99
.
2
0

36
9
.
4
6

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

9
,
3
8
7
.
8
9

25
.
7
2

92
.
1
2

17
,
7
7
4
.
4
4

48
.
7
0

18
8
.
6
8

9,
0
7
9
.
2
1

24
.
8
7

91
.
1
9

36
,
2
4
1
.
5
5

99
.
2
9

37
1
.
9
9

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

9
,
3
7
9
.
1
3

25
.
7
0

92
.
7
9

17
,
5
7
1
.
7
1

48
.
1
4

18
9
.
3
9

8,
9
9
1
.
2
2

24
.
6
3

91
.
6
7

35
,
9
4
2
.
0
5

98
.
4
7

37
3
.
8
5

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

9
,
4
0
8
.
6
4

25
.
7
8

93
.
4
3

17
,
4
5
3
.
7
4

47
.
8
2

19
0
.
3
0

8,
9
4
8
.
3
3

24
.
5
2

92
.
2
8

35
,
8
1
0
.
7
1

98
.
1
1

37
6
.
0
0

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

9
,
4
3
4
.
3
4

25
.
8
5

94
.
0
5

17
,
3
4
7
.
4
9

47
.
5
3

19
1
.
2
0

8,
9
1
6
.
8
7

24
.
4
3

92
.
9
3

35
,
6
9
8
.
7
0

97
.
8
0

37
8
.
1
8

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

9
,
5
0
0
.
4
0

26
.
0
3

94
.
6
4

17
,
3
4
0
.
6
7

47
.
5
1

19
2
.
4
5

8,
9
4
0
.
6
4

24
.
4
9

93
.
8
0

35
,
7
8
1
.
7
1

98
.
0
3

38
0
.
8
9

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

9
,
4
7
7
.
0
6

25
.
9
6

95
.
2
0

17
,
1
8
5
.
9
0

47
.
0
8

19
3
.
1
0

8,
8
9
6
.
2
5

24
.
3
7

94
.
4
1

35
,
5
5
9
.
2
1

97
.
4
2

38
2
.
7
1

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

9
,
4
9
5
.
3
1

26
.
0
1

95
.
7
5

17
,
1
3
2
.
7
5

46
.
9
4

19
4
.
0
9

8,
9
0
7
.
8
6

24
.
4
1

95
.
2
3

35
,
5
3
5
.
9
2

97
.
3
6

38
5
.
0
7

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

9
,
5
1
2
.
1
6

26
.
0
6

96
.
2
8

17
,
0
9
9
.
3
8

46
.
8
5

19
5
.
1
2

8,
9
3
3
.
0
7

24
.
4
7

96
.
1
1

35
,
5
4
4
.
6
1

97
.
3
8

38
7
.
5
1

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

9
,
5
7
3
.
0
9

26
.
2
3

96
.
8
2

17
,
1
6
8
.
5
7

47
.
0
4

19
6
.
5
7

9,
0
1
2
.
9
4

24
.
6
9

97
.
2
4

35
,
7
5
4
.
6
1

97
.
9
6

39
0
.
6
3

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
Y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

9
,
5
4
4
.
9
5

26
.
1
5

97
.
3
3

17
,
0
8
0
.
6
3

46
.
8
0

19
7
.
2
7

9,
0
1
6
.
5
2

24
.
7
0

98
.
0
1

35
,
6
4
2
.
1
0

97
.
6
5

39
2
.
6
1

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 99
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.7: ANNUAL DEMAND, AVERAGE DAY DEMAND AND PEAK DAY
DEMAND (NET OF DSM) – CASE 80% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h

F
a
l
l
s

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y

Kla
m
a
t
h
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
La

G
r
a
n
d
e
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
/
R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
1
7
-
2
0
1
8
1,3
0
7
.
4
3

3.
5
8

12
.
9
1

82
9
.
5
3

2.2
7

7.
3
4

6,
5
6
9
.
6
5

18
.
0
0

72
.
9
9

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
1
8
-
2
0
1
9
1,2
6
8
.
0
0

3.
4
7

12
.
5
6

80
4
.
8
5

2.2
1

7.
1
0

6,
3
8
0
.
5
9

17
.
4
8

71
.
1
1

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
1
9
-
2
0
2
0
1,2
3
0
.
6
2

3.
3
7

12
.
1
7

77
7
.
2
9

2.1
3

6.
8
5

6,
1
9
3
.
2
5

16
.
9
7

68
.
9
4

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
0
-
2
0
2
1
1,1
9
1
.
5
7

3.
2
6

11
.
8
8

75
0
.
1
2

2.0
6

6.
6
5

6,
0
0
6
.
4
9

16
.
4
6

67
.
3
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
1
-
2
0
2
2
1,1
4
7
.
7
9

3.
1
4

11
.
4
8

72
0
.
2
1

1.9
7

6.
4
0

5,
7
9
5
.
2
7

15
.
8
8

65
.
1
5

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
2
-
2
0
2
3
1,1
0
9
.
3
4

3.
0
4

11
.
1
4

69
2
.
8
1

1.9
0

6.
1
8

5,
6
0
6
.
0
4

15
.
3
6

63
.
2
9

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
3
-
2
0
2
4
1,0
7
1
.
8
3

2.
9
4

10
.
7
6

66
5
.
5
2

1.8
2

5.
9
4

5,
4
1
3
.
5
2

14
.
8
3

61
.
1
5

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
4
-
2
0
2
5
1,0
3
1
.
9
9

2.
8
3

10
.
4
7

63
8
.
6
6

1.7
5

5.
7
4

5,
2
1
5
.
0
7

14
.
2
9

59
.
4
6

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
5
-
2
0
2
6
99
3
.
2
1

2.
7
2

10
.
1
3

61
1
.
9
0

1.6
8

5.
5
3

5,
0
1
8
.
7
7

13
.
7
5

57
.
5
6

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7
95
3
.
9
2

2.
6
1

9.8
0

58
5
.
2
7

1.6
0

5.
3
2

4,
8
2
0
.
6
1

13
.
2
1

55
.
6
6

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
7
-
2
0
2
8
91
4
.
6
6

2.
5
1

9.4
2

55
8
.
5
5

1.5
3

5.
0
9

4,
6
2
0
.
1
0

12
.
6
6

53
.
5
1

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
8
-
2
0
2
9
87
3
.
9
1

2.
3
9

9.1
2

53
2
.
6
5

1.4
6

4.
9
0

4,
4
1
8
.
4
3

12
.
1
1

51
.
8
2

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
2
9
-
2
0
3
0
83
3
.
3
1

2.
2
8

8.7
8

50
6
.
6
0

1.3
9

4.
7
0

4,
2
1
5
.
2
9

11
.
5
5

49
.
9
0

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
0
-
2
0
3
1
79
2
.
6
8

2.
1
7

8.4
3

48
0
.
7
0

1.3
2

4.
5
0

4,
0
1
1
.
1
0

10
.
9
9

47
.
9
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
1
-
2
0
3
2
75
2
.
6
1

2.
0
6

8.0
6

45
4
.
7
3

1.2
5

4.
2
9

3,
8
0
5
.
8
4

10
.
4
3

45
.
8
2

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
2
-
2
0
3
3
71
1
.
6
5

1.
9
5

7.7
5

42
9
.
3
2

1.1
8

4.
1
0

3,
6
0
0
.
0
9

9.
8
6

44
.
0
8

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
3
-
2
0
3
4
67
1
.
1
5

1.
8
4

7.4
1

40
3
.
7
8

1.1
1

3.
9
0

3,
3
9
3
.
7
7

9.
3
0

42
.
1
3

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
4
-
2
0
3
5
63
0
.
6
4

1.
7
3

7.0
7

37
8
.
4
1

1.0
4

3.
7
1

3,
1
8
7
.
2
9

8.
7
3

40
.
1
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
5
-
2
0
3
6
59
0
.
5
5

1.
6
2

6.7
0

35
2
.
9
5

0.9
7

3.
5
0

2,
9
8
0
.
5
9

8.
1
7

38
.
0
4

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
20
3
6
-
2
0
3
7
54
9
.
7
3

1.
5
1

6.3
9

32
7
.
9
9

0.9
0

3.
3
2

2,
7
7
4
.
6
8

7.
6
0

36
.
2
6

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o
Ga
s

Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n

(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d
Or
e
g
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n

(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Wa
s
h
i
n
g
t
o
n
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o

(
M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
Id
a
h
o
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
An
n
u
a
l

D
e
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y

De
m
a
n
d
To
t
a
l

S
y
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
Pe
a
k

D
a
y
De
m
a
n
d

To
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
(M
D
t
h
/
d
a
y
)
80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

8
,
7
0
6
.
6
0

23
.
8
5

93
.
2
5

17
,
1
9
5
.
1
6

47
.
1
1

18
3
.
2
7

8,
8
9
8
.
3
3

24
.
3
8

89
.
4
2

34
,
8
0
0
.
0
9

95
.
3
4

36
5
.
9
5

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

8
,
4
5
3
.
4
4

23
.
1
6

90
.
7
7

16
,
6
8
8
.
8
5

45
.
7
2

17
8
.
3
0

8,
9
7
7
.
5
8

24
.
6
0

90
.
4
7

34
,
1
1
9
.
8
6

93
.
4
8

35
9
.
5
5

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

8
,
2
0
1
.
1
5

22
.
4
7

87
.
9
6

16
,
1
4
7
.
7
1

44
.
2
4

17
2
.
5
4

9,
0
8
3
.
8
0

24
.
8
9

91
.
5
1

33
,
4
3
2
.
6
7

91
.
6
0

35
2
.
0
0

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

7
,
9
4
8
.
1
8

21
.
7
8

85
.
9
1

15
,
5
8
0
.
0
8

42
.
6
9

16
8
.
0
2

9,
1
0
8
.
3
4

24
.
9
5

92
.
5
3

32
,
6
3
6
.
6
0

89
.
4
2

34
6
.
4
6

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

7
,
6
6
3
.
2
6

21
.
0
0

83
.
0
2

14
,
9
9
4
.
6
9

41
.
0
8

16
2
.
9
5

9,
1
4
9
.
2
4

25
.
0
7

93
.
5
1

31
,
8
0
7
.
2
0

87
.
1
4

33
9
.
4
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

7
,
4
0
8
.
1
9

20
.
3
0

80
.
6
0

14
,
3
6
7
.
7
6

39
.
3
6

15
7
.
7
4

9,
1
6
7
.
6
4

25
.
1
2

94
.
4
3

30
,
9
4
3
.
6
0

84
.
7
8

33
2
.
7
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

7
,
1
5
0
.
8
8

19
.
5
9

77
.
8
5

13
,
8
2
4
.
9
4

37
.
8
8

15
2
.
3
0

9,
2
6
9
.
6
0

25
.
4
0

95
.
5
3

30
,
2
4
5
.
4
2

82
.
8
6

32
5
.
6
8

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

6
,
8
8
5
.
7
2

18
.
8
6

75
.
6
7

13
,
1
5
0
.
1
7

36
.
0
3

14
7
.
2
9

9,
2
1
3
.
9
2

25
.
2
4

96
.
1
1

29
,
2
4
9
.
8
2

80
.
1
4

31
9
.
0
6

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

6
,
6
2
3
.
8
9

18
.
1
5

73
.
2
2

12
,
4
4
2
.
8
1

34
.
0
9

14
1
.
8
6

9,
1
7
8
.
9
1

25
.
1
5

96
.
8
0

28
,
2
4
5
.
6
0

77
.
3
9

31
1
.
8
8

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

6
,
3
5
9
.
8
0

17
.
4
2

70
.
7
7

11
,
7
1
6
.
2
5

32
.
1
0

13
6
.
3
7

9,
1
3
4
.
3
7

25
.
0
3

97
.
4
6

27
,
2
1
0
.
4
2

74
.
5
5

30
4
.
6
0

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

6
,
0
9
3
.
3
2

16
.
6
9

68
.
0
2

10
,
9
8
0
.
2
5

30
.
0
8

13
0
.
5
0

9,
1
2
5
.
7
4

25
.
0
0

98
.
2
1

26
,
1
9
9
.
3
0

71
.
7
8

29
6
.
7
3

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

5
,
8
2
4
.
9
9

15
.
9
6

65
.
8
5

10
,
2
4
1
.
9
2

28
.
0
6

12
5
.
3
4

9,
0
3
8
.
1
9

24
.
7
6

98
.
7
8

25
,
1
0
5
.
0
9

68
.
7
8

28
9
.
9
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

5
,
5
5
5
.
2
0

15
.
2
2

63
.
3
7

9,
5
1
1
.
6
3

26
.
0
6

11
9
.
8
6

8,
9
9
5
.
8
3

24
.
6
5

99
.
4
6

24
,
0
6
2
.
6
7

65
.
9
3

28
2
.
7
0

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

5
,
2
8
4
.
4
8

14
.
4
8

60
.
9
0

9,
0
4
0
.
1
6

24
.
7
7

11
0
.
0
9

8,
9
6
4
.
9
3

24
.
5
6

10
0
.
2
0

23
,
2
8
9
.
5
6

63
.
8
1

27
1
.
1
9

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

5
,
0
1
3
.
1
8

13
.
7
3

58
.
1
7

8,
1
2
6
.
3
9

22
.
2
6

10
4
.
2
8

8,
9
8
9
.
3
3

24
.
6
3

10
1
.
1
5

22
,
1
2
8
.
8
9

60
.
6
3

26
3
.
6
0

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

4
,
7
4
1
.
0
6

12
.
9
9

55
.
9
3

7,
4
5
2
.
4
7

20
.
4
2

98
.
5
9

8,
9
4
5
.
4
3

24
.
5
1

10
1
.
8
5

21
,
1
3
8
.
9
5

57
.
9
1

25
6
.
3
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

4
,
4
6
8
.
7
0

12
.
2
4

53
.
4
4

6,
8
0
1
.
1
9

18
.
6
3

92
.
9
9

8,
9
5
7
.
6
1

24
.
5
4

10
2
.
7
6

20
,
2
2
7
.
5
0

55
.
4
2

24
9
.
1
9

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

4
,
1
9
6
.
3
4

11
.
5
0

50
.
9
5

6,
1
7
2
.
0
5

16
.
9
1

87
.
4
9

8,
9
8
3
.
4
1

24
.
6
1

10
3
.
7
2

19
,
3
5
1
.
8
0

53
.
0
2

24
2
.
1
7

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

3
,
9
2
4
.
0
9

10
.
7
5

48
.
2
5

5,
8
1
8
.
4
9

15
.
9
4

84
.
0
4

9,
0
6
3
.
9
6

24
.
8
3

10
4
.
9
4

18
,
8
0
6
.
5
4

51
.
5
2

23
7
.
2
3

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

3
,
6
5
2
.
4
0

10
.
0
1

45
.
9
6

4,
3
5
4
.
2
1

11
.
9
3

69
.
7
0

9,
0
6
8
.
0
6

24
.
8
4

10
5
.
8
0

17
,
0
7
4
.
6
7

46
.
7
8

22
1
.
4
6

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 100
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.8: PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
WASHINGTON

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 101
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.8: PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
IDAHO

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 102
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.8: PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
MEDFORD/ROSEBURG

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 103
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.8: PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
KLAMATH FALLS

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 104
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.8: PEAK DAY DEMAND BEFORE AND AFTER DSM
LA GRANDE

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 105
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
EXPECTED MIX

Area
2017-2018:
Residential
2017-2018:
Commercial
2017-2018:
Ind
FirmSale
2017-2018:
Total
2018-2019:
Residential
2018-2019:
Commercial
2018-2019:
Ind
FirmSale
2018-2019:
Total
2019-2020:
Residential
2019-2020:
Commercial
2019-2020:
Ind
FirmSale
2019-2020:
Total
Klamath Falls 874.44 452.24 14.01 1,340.69 882.77 452.95 13.86 1,349.58 895.08 456.78 13.78 1,365.64
La Grande 485.62 311.25 53.19 850.05 487.04 311.62 56.66 855.32 490.38 313.30 56.98 860.65
Medford GTN 2,301.32 1,432.79 18.61 3,752.73 2,323.88 1,443.20 18.40 3,785.48 2,356.55 1,458.85 18.28 3,833.68
Medford NWP 1,033.93 643.72 8.36 1,686.01 1,044.06 648.39 8.27 1,700.72 1,058.74 655.43 8.21 1,722.38
Roseburg 719.67 575.98 2.37 1,298.02 725.91 576.49 2.35 1,304.75 735.20 578.92 2.34 1,316.45
OR Sub-Total 5,414.98 3,415.97 96.54 8,927.50 5,463.67 3,432.66 99.53 8,995.85 5,535.95 3,463.28 99.58 9,098.81
Washington Both 6,319.09 3,750.78 156.12 10,225.98 6,403.56 3,768.84 154.35 10,326.75 6,482.26 3,793.71 153.08 10,429.05
Washington GTN 871.60 517.35 21.53 1,410.48 883.25 519.84 21.29 1,424.38 894.10 523.27 21.11 1,438.49
Washington NWP 3,704.29 2,198.73 91.52 5,994.54 3,753.81 2,209.32 90.48 6,053.61 3,799.94 2,223.90 89.74 6,113.58
WA Sub-Total 10,894.98 6,466.85 269.16 17,631.00 11,040.62 6,498.00 266.12 17,804.74 11,176.31 6,540.87 263.93 17,981.11
Idaho Both 3,173.24 1,838.79 149.00 5,161.03 3,212.59 1,843.92 150.48 5,206.99 3,262.14 1,855.12 151.35 5,268.61
Idaho GTN 437.69 253.63 20.55 711.87 443.12 254.33 20.76 718.21 449.95 255.88 20.88 726.70
Idaho NWP 1,860.17 1,077.91 87.35 3,025.43 1,883.24 1,080.92 88.21 3,052.38 1,912.29 1,087.48 88.72 3,088.49
ID Sub-Total 5,471.10 3,170.33 256.90 8,898.33 5,538.95 3,179.18 259.45 8,977.58 5,624.37 3,198.48 260.95 9,083.80
Case Total 21,781.06 13,053.16 622.61 35,456.83 22,043.24 13,109.83 625.10 35,778.17 22,336.62 13,202.64 624.46 36,163.73
Area
2020-2021:
Residential
2020-2021:
Commercial
2020-2021:
Ind
FirmSale
2020-2021:
Total
2021-2022:
Residential
2021-2022:
Commercial
2021-2022:
Ind
FirmSale
2021-2022:
Total
2022-2023:
Residential
2022-2023:
Commercial
2022-2023:
Ind
FirmSale
2022-2023:
Total
Klamath Falls 898.47 455.98 13.63 1,368.08 902.04 455.18 13.53 1,370.75 908.77 455.95 13.45 1,378.17
La Grande 489.73 312.39 56.72 858.83 489.10 311.73 56.45 857.28 489.67 311.82 56.14 857.64
Medford GTN 2,368.38 1,462.78 18.10 3,849.26 2,380.10 1,467.46 17.98 3,865.54 2,398.70 1,475.78 17.88 3,892.36
Medford NWP 1,064.05 657.19 8.13 1,729.38 1,069.32 659.29 8.08 1,736.69 1,077.68 663.03 8.03 1,748.74
Roseburg 738.24 576.67 2.31 1,317.21 741.21 574.54 2.29 1,318.04 746.74 574.19 2.28 1,323.21
OR Sub-Total 5,558.86 3,465.01 98.89 9,122.76 5,581.77 3,468.19 98.34 9,148.30 5,621.57 3,480.76 97.78 9,200.11
Washington Both 6,493.07 3,783.53 150.74 10,427.34 6,515.92 3,786.89 149.10 10,451.91 6,515.13 3,783.17 147.47 10,445.77
Washington GTN 895.60 521.87 20.79 1,438.25 898.75 522.33 20.57 1,441.64 898.64 521.82 20.34 1,440.80
Washington NWP 3,806.28 2,217.93 88.36 6,112.58 3,819.68 2,219.90 87.40 6,126.98 3,819.21 2,217.72 86.45 6,123.38
WA Sub-Total 11,194.95 6,523.34 259.89 17,978.18 11,234.34 6,529.12 257.07 18,020.53 11,232.98 6,522.71 254.26 18,009.95
Idaho Both 3,281.97 1,850.24 150.63 5,282.84 3,302.73 1,849.26 150.29 5,302.28 3,313.10 1,845.47 149.89 5,308.47
Idaho GTN 452.69 255.21 20.78 728.67 455.55 255.07 20.73 731.35 456.98 254.55 20.67 732.20
Idaho NWP 1,923.91 1,084.62 88.30 3,096.83 1,936.09 1,084.05 88.10 3,108.24 1,942.16 1,081.83 87.87 3,111.86
ID Sub-Total 5,658.57 3,190.06 259.70 9,108.34 5,694.37 3,188.38 259.12 9,141.87 5,712.24 3,181.85 258.43 9,152.53
Case Total 22,412.38 13,178.41 618.48 36,209.27 22,510.48 13,185.70 614.52 36,310.70 22,566.79 13,185.32 610.48 36,362.59
Area
2023-2024:
Residential
2023-2024:
Commercial
2023-2024:
Ind
FirmSale
2023-2024:
Total
2024-2025:
Residential
2024-2025:
Commercial
2024-2025:
Ind
FirmSale
2024-2025:
Total
2025-2026:
Residential
2025-2026:
Commercial
2025-2026:
Ind
FirmSale
2025-2026:
Total
Klamath Falls 920.88 459.21 13.40 1,393.49 922.26 457.51 13.25 1,393.03 929.01 458.31 13.14 1,400.46
La Grande 492.43 313.35 55.86 861.65 490.63 311.98 55.36 857.97 491.03 312.08 54.91 858.01
Medford GTN 2,426.77 1,490.06 17.81 3,934.63 2,428.47 1,490.18 17.63 3,936.28 2,442.96 1,497.29 17.49 3,957.73
Medford NWP 1,090.29 669.45 8.00 1,767.73 1,091.05 669.50 7.92 1,768.47 1,097.56 672.69 7.86 1,778.11
Roseburg 756.21 576.61 2.27 1,335.09 758.04 573.49 2.24 1,333.78 763.73 573.18 2.23 1,339.13
OR Sub-Total 5,686.58 3,508.68 97.34 9,292.60 5,690.46 3,502.66 96.41 9,289.52 5,724.29 3,513.54 95.62 9,333.44
Washington Both 6,601.83 3,794.96 146.51 10,543.30 6,559.37 3,764.84 144.37 10,468.58 6,526.49 3,753.27 142.91 10,422.67
Washington GTN 910.60 523.44 20.21 1,454.25 904.74 519.29 19.91 1,443.94 900.20 517.69 19.71 1,437.61
Washington NWP 3,870.04 2,224.63 85.89 6,180.56 3,845.15 2,206.97 84.63 6,136.75 3,825.87 2,200.19 83.78 6,109.84
WA Sub-Total 11,382.46 6,543.04 252.61 18,178.11 11,309.26 6,491.10 248.92 18,049.28 11,252.56 6,471.16 246.40 17,970.12
Idaho Both 3,369.35 1,847.98 150.13 5,367.45 3,353.83 1,831.01 149.07 5,333.91 3,342.07 1,822.70 148.71 5,313.48
Idaho GTN 464.74 254.89 20.71 740.34 462.60 252.55 20.56 735.71 460.98 251.41 20.51 732.89
Idaho NWP 1,975.14 1,083.30 88.00 3,146.44 1,966.04 1,073.35 87.39 3,126.77 1,959.14 1,068.48 87.18 3,114.80
ID Sub-Total 5,809.22 3,186.17 258.84 9,254.23 5,782.46 3,156.91 257.02 9,196.40 5,762.19 3,142.59 256.40 9,161.18
Case Total 22,878.27 13,237.89 608.79 36,724.94 22,782.18 13,150.66 602.35 36,535.20 22,739.04 13,127.28 598.42 36,464.74
Area
2026-2027:
Residential
2026-2027:
Commercial
2026-2027:
Ind
FirmSale
2026-2027:
Total
2027-2028:
Residential
2027-2028:
Commercial
2027-2028:
Ind
FirmSale
2027-2028:
Total
2028-2029:
Residential
2028-2029:
Commercial
2028-2029:
Ind
FirmSale
2028-2029:
Total
Klamath Falls 935.30 458.98 13.02 1,407.31 945.90 461.83 12.93 1,420.66 946.12 460.20 12.72 1,419.04
La Grande 491.39 312.11 54.39 857.89 493.84 313.39 53.89 861.13 492.31 312.02 53.14 857.47
Medford GTN 2,456.53 1,503.96 17.32 3,977.81 2,480.18 1,516.53 17.19 4,013.89 2,479.88 1,516.16 16.93 4,012.97
Medford NWP 1,103.66 675.69 7.78 1,787.13 1,114.28 681.34 7.72 1,803.34 1,114.15 681.17 7.61 1,802.93
Roseburg 769.36 572.78 2.21 1,344.34 778.26 574.79 2.19 1,355.25 779.82 571.68 2.16 1,353.66
OR Sub-Total 5,756.24 3,523.51 94.72 9,374.47 5,812.47 3,547.88 93.92 9,454.27 5,812.28 3,541.24 92.55 9,446.08
Washington Both 6,482.38 3,739.61 141.49 10,363.48 6,460.16 3,742.67 140.63 10,343.45 6,375.69 3,711.75 138.75 10,226.19
Washington GTN 894.12 515.81 19.52 1,429.44 891.06 516.23 19.40 1,426.68 879.40 511.97 19.14 1,410.51
Washington NWP 3,800.02 2,192.18 82.94 6,075.14 3,786.99 2,193.98 82.44 6,063.40 3,737.47 2,175.85 81.34 5,994.66
WA Sub-Total 11,176.52 6,447.60 243.94 17,868.06 11,138.21 6,452.87 242.46 17,833.54 10,992.56 6,399.57 239.23 17,631.36
Idaho Both 3,325.06 1,814.10 148.37 5,287.53 3,320.27 1,813.45 148.64 5,282.35 3,286.22 1,797.53 147.75 5,231.50
Idaho GTN 458.63 250.22 20.46 729.31 457.97 250.13 20.50 728.60 453.27 247.93 20.38 721.59
Idaho NWP 1,949.17 1,063.44 86.97 3,099.59 1,946.36 1,063.06 87.13 3,096.55 1,926.41 1,053.72 86.61 3,066.74
ID Sub-Total 5,732.86 3,127.77 255.80 9,116.43 5,724.60 3,126.63 256.27 9,107.50 5,665.90 3,099.18 254.74 9,019.82
Case Total 22,665.62 13,098.88 594.46 36,358.96 22,675.27 13,127.39 592.65 36,395.31 22,470.74 13,039.99 586.53 36,097.26
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 106
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
EXPECTED MIX

Area
2029-2030:
Residential
2029-2030:
Commercial
2029-2030:
Ind
FirmSale
2029-2030:
Total
2030-2031:
Residential
2030-2031:
Commercial
2030-2031:
Ind
FirmSale
2030-2031:
Total
2031-2032:
Residential
2031-2032:
Commercial
2031-2032:
Ind
FirmSale
2031-2032:
Total
Klamath Falls 950.47 460.73 12.56 1,423.76 954.48 461.28 12.39 1,428.15 963.58 464.03 12.25 1,439.86
La Grande 492.64 311.94 52.48 857.06 492.80 311.83 51.75 856.38 494.90 313.04 51.06 859.00
Medford GTN 2,489.65 1,521.73 16.72 4,028.11 2,498.28 1,526.98 16.49 4,041.75 2,517.50 1,538.42 16.29 4,072.21
Medford NWP 1,118.54 683.68 7.51 1,809.73 1,122.42 686.03 7.41 1,815.86 1,131.05 691.17 7.32 1,829.54
Roseburg 784.40 570.95 2.13 1,357.48 788.14 569.98 2.10 1,360.23 794.90 571.34 2.08 1,368.32
OR Sub-Total 5,835.71 3,549.03 91.40 9,476.13 5,856.12 3,556.11 90.14 9,502.37 5,901.93 3,578.00 88.99 9,568.92
Washington Both 6,321.09 3,699.55 137.44 10,158.08 6,272.26 3,688.35 136.16 10,096.76 6,261.52 3,696.18 135.41 10,093.11
Washington GTN 871.87 510.28 18.96 1,401.11 865.14 508.74 18.78 1,392.66 863.66 509.82 18.68 1,392.15
Washington NWP 3,705.47 2,168.70 80.57 5,954.74 3,676.84 2,162.13 79.82 5,918.79 3,670.55 2,166.72 79.38 5,916.65
WA Sub-Total 10,898.44 6,378.53 236.97 17,513.94 10,814.24 6,359.22 234.76 17,408.21 10,795.73 6,372.72 233.47 17,401.91
Idaho Both 3,268.76 1,790.57 147.48 5,206.81 3,256.81 1,784.71 147.24 5,188.76 3,266.97 1,788.16 147.60 5,202.73
Idaho GTN 450.86 246.98 20.34 718.18 449.22 246.17 20.31 715.69 450.62 246.64 20.36 717.62
Idaho NWP 1,916.17 1,049.65 86.46 3,052.27 1,909.16 1,046.21 86.31 3,041.69 1,915.12 1,048.23 86.52 3,049.88
ID Sub-Total 5,635.79 3,087.19 254.28 8,977.26 5,615.19 3,077.09 253.85 8,946.13 5,632.71 3,083.04 254.48 8,970.23
Case Total 22,369.93 13,014.75 582.64 35,967.33 22,285.55 12,992.41 578.75 35,856.71 22,330.37 13,033.76 576.94 35,941.07
Area
2032-2033:
Residential
2032-2033:
Commercial
2032-2033:
Ind
FirmSale
2032-2033:
Total
2033-2034:
Residential
2033-2034:
Commercial
2033-2034:
Ind
FirmSale
2033-2034:
Total
2034-2035:
Residential
2034-2035:
Commercial
2034-2035:
Ind
FirmSale
2034-2035:
Total
Klamath Falls 962.62 462.23 12.00 1,436.85 966.73 462.63 11.78 1,441.14 970.81 463.02 11.56 1,445.39
La Grande 492.75 311.56 50.11 854.41 492.54 311.37 49.21 853.13 492.28 311.24 48.28 851.79
Medford GTN 2,512.39 1,536.46 15.97 4,064.82 2,518.22 1,540.79 15.68 4,074.69 2,523.44 1,544.92 15.39 4,083.75
Medford NWP 1,128.75 690.29 7.17 1,826.22 1,131.38 692.24 7.05 1,830.66 1,133.72 694.09 6.92 1,834.73
Roseburg 794.19 567.56 2.03 1,363.78 796.93 566.24 2.00 1,365.17 799.57 564.93 1.96 1,366.46
OR Sub-Total 5,890.69 3,568.10 87.28 9,546.08 5,905.80 3,573.27 85.72 9,564.79 5,919.81 3,578.20 84.11 9,582.11 Washington Both 6,198.50 3,671.47 133.67 10,003.64 6,172.03 3,668.62 132.45 9,973.10 6,153.87 3,668.91 131.24 9,954.03
Washington GTN 854.97 506.41 18.44 1,379.81 851.32 506.02 18.27 1,375.60 848.81 506.06 18.10 1,372.97
Washington NWP 3,633.60 2,152.24 78.36 5,864.20 3,618.09 2,150.57 77.64 5,846.30 3,607.44 2,150.74 76.94 5,835.12
WA Sub-Total 10,687.07 6,330.12 230.46 17,247.65 10,641.44 6,325.20 228.36 17,195.00 10,610.13 6,325.70 226.28 17,162.11
Idaho Both 3,253.17 1,777.22 146.80 5,177.19 3,260.50 1,777.02 146.61 5,184.12 3,274.00 1,778.52 146.42 5,198.95
Idaho GTN 448.71 245.13 20.25 714.10 449.72 245.11 20.22 715.05 451.59 245.31 20.20 717.10
Idaho NWP 1,907.03 1,041.82 86.05 3,034.90 1,911.33 1,041.70 85.94 3,038.97 1,919.24 1,042.58 85.83 3,047.66
ID Sub-Total 5,608.92 3,064.18 253.10 8,926.19 5,621.56 3,063.82 252.77 8,938.15 5,644.83 3,066.42 252.46 8,963.71
Case Total 22,186.68 12,962.40 570.83 35,719.91 22,168.80 12,962.29 566.85 35,697.94 22,174.77 12,970.32 562.85 35,707.94
Area
2035-2036:
Residential
2035-2036:
Commercial
2035-2036:
Ind
FirmSale
2035-2036:
Total
2036-2037:
Residential
2036-2037:
Commercial
2036-2037:
Ind
FirmSale
2036-2037:
Total
Klamath Falls 980.21 465.79 11.38 1,457.38 979.29 463.88 11.11 1,454.28
La Grande 494.06 312.43 47.42 853.91 491.65 310.80 46.39 848.83
Medford GTN 2,540.44 1,555.58 15.14 4,111.16 2,533.52 1,552.82 14.79 4,101.13
Medford NWP 1,141.36 698.88 6.80 1,847.04 1,138.25 697.64 6.65 1,842.54
Roseburg 805.94 566.14 1.93 1,374.01 804.96 562.19 1.88 1,369.04
OR Sub-Total 5,962.01 3,598.83 82.67 9,643.50 5,947.66 3,587.34 80.82 9,615.82
Washington Both 6,174.01 3,689.88 130.55 9,994.44 6,137.04 3,677.80 128.87 9,943.70
Washington GTN 851.59 508.95 18.01 1,378.54 846.49 507.28 17.77 1,371.55
Washington NWP 3,619.25 2,163.03 76.53 5,858.81 3,597.57 2,155.95 75.54 5,829.07
WA Sub-Total 10,644.85 6,361.86 225.08 17,231.79 10,581.10 6,341.03 222.18 17,144.32
Idaho Both 3,308.89 1,789.76 146.84 5,245.48 3,315.58 1,786.11 146.08 5,247.77
Idaho GTN 456.40 246.86 20.25 723.52 457.32 246.36 20.15 723.83
Idaho NWP 1,939.69 1,049.17 86.08 3,074.94 1,943.62 1,047.03 85.63 3,076.28
ID Sub-Total 5,704.98 3,085.79 253.17 9,043.94 5,716.52 3,079.50 251.86 9,047.89
Case Total 22,311.83 13,046.47 560.92 35,919.23 22,245.28 13,007.87 554.86 35,808.02
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 107
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
LOW GROWTH HIGH PRICE

Area
2017-2018:
Residential
2017-2018:
Commercial
2017-2018:
Ind
FirmSale
2017-2018:
Total
2018-2019:
Residential
2018-2019:
Commercial
2018-2019:
Ind
FirmSale
2018-2019:
Total
2019-2020:
Residential
2019-2020:
Commercial
2019-2020:
Ind
FirmSale
2019-2020:
Total
Klamath Falls 867.19 448.44 13.52 1,329.16 871.85 447.30 12.51 1,331.66 879.21 448.75 11.53 1,339.49
La Grande 481.35 308.50 53.76 843.60 480.73 307.57 47.19 835.49 481.59 307.72 36.47 825.78
Medford GTN 2,283.52 1,421.48 18.29 3,723.29 2,296.93 1,426.25 17.44 3,740.63 2,317.07 1,434.65 16.69 3,768.41
Medford NWP 1,025.93 638.64 8.22 1,672.78 1,031.96 640.78 7.84 1,680.57 1,041.00 644.55 7.50 1,693.05
Roseburg 714.37 571.66 2.10 1,288.12 717.79 569.97 1.50 1,289.27 723.19 569.55 0.91 1,293.65
OR Sub-Total 5,372.37 3,388.70 95.89 8,856.96 5,399.26 3,391.87 86.49 8,877.62 5,442.07 3,405.22 73.09 8,920.39
Washington Both 6,271.88 3,722.51 154.41 10,148.80 6,332.03 3,726.53 150.46 10,209.02 6,380.77 3,734.51 146.81 10,262.09
Washington GTN 865.09 513.45 21.30 1,399.83 873.38 514.00 20.75 1,408.14 880.11 515.10 20.25 1,415.46
Washington NWP 3,676.62 2,182.16 90.51 5,949.30 3,711.88 2,184.52 88.20 5,984.60 3,740.45 2,189.20 86.06 6,015.71
WA Sub-Total 10,813.59 6,418.12 266.22 17,497.93 10,917.29 6,425.05 259.41 17,601.75 11,001.32 6,438.81 253.13 17,693.26
Idaho Both 3,143.30 1,821.15 146.23 5,110.68 3,166.01 1,816.90 142.74 5,125.65 3,192.94 1,816.20 139.71 5,148.85
Idaho GTN 433.56 251.19 20.17 704.92 436.69 250.61 19.69 706.99 440.41 250.51 19.27 710.19
Idaho NWP 1,842.62 1,067.57 85.72 2,995.92 1,855.93 1,065.08 83.68 3,004.69 1,871.72 1,064.67 81.90 3,018.29
ID Sub-Total 5,419.48 3,139.91 252.12 8,811.52 5,458.63 3,132.59 246.11 8,837.33 5,505.07 3,131.37 240.88 8,877.32
Case Total 21,605.44 12,946.74 614.22 35,166.40 21,775.18 12,949.51 592.01 35,316.70 21,948.46 12,975.40 567.10 35,490.97
Area
2020-2021:
Residential
2020-2021:
Commercial
2020-2021:
Ind
FirmSale
2020-2021:
Total
2021-2022:
Residential
2021-2022:
Commercial
2021-2022:
Ind
FirmSale
2021-2022:
Total
2022-2023:
Residential
2022-2023:
Commercial
2022-2023:
Ind
FirmSale
2022-2023:
TotalKlamath Falls 877.85 445.67 10.47 1,333.99 877.82 443.10 9.44 1,330.35 880.40 441.87 8.42 1,330.70
La Grande 478.65 305.40 28.10 812.16 476.32 303.66 22.73 802.71 475.08 302.60 18.50 796.18
Medford GTN 2,317.02 1,431.68 15.88 3,764.58 2,319.86 1,430.90 15.14 3,765.91 2,328.62 1,433.33 14.41 3,776.36
Medford NWP 1,040.98 643.22 7.14 1,691.33 1,042.26 642.87 6.80 1,691.93 1,046.19 643.96 6.48 1,696.63
Roseburg 722.47 564.55 0.30 1,287.32 722.56 560.27 - 1,282.83 724.78 557.51 - 1,282.28
OR Sub-Total 5,436.97 3,390.52 61.89 8,889.38 5,438.82 3,380.80 54.12 8,873.74 5,455.07 3,379.27 47.81 8,882.14
Washington Both 6,363.95 3,708.85 142.12 10,214.92 6,359.17 3,696.87 138.06 10,194.10 6,331.78 3,678.47 133.99 10,144.24
Washington GTN 877.79 511.57 19.60 1,408.95 877.13 509.91 19.04 1,406.08 873.35 507.38 18.48 1,399.21
Washington NWP 3,730.59 2,174.15 83.31 5,988.06 3,727.79 2,167.13 80.93 5,975.85 3,711.73 2,156.35 78.55 5,946.62
WA Sub-Total 10,972.33 6,394.57 245.04 17,611.93 10,964.09 6,373.91 238.04 17,576.04 10,916.86 6,342.19 231.02 17,490.07
Idaho Both 3,190.35 1,799.69 135.59 5,125.63 3,190.43 1,787.98 132.01 5,110.42 3,180.13 1,773.65 128.42 5,082.20
Idaho GTN 440.05 248.23 18.70 706.98 440.06 246.62 18.21 704.89 438.64 244.64 17.71 700.99
Idaho NWP 1,870.20 1,054.99 79.49 3,004.68 1,870.25 1,048.13 77.38 2,995.77 1,864.21 1,039.72 75.28 2,979.22
ID Sub-Total 5,500.60 3,102.92 233.78 8,837.30 5,500.75 3,082.73 227.60 8,811.07 5,482.98 3,058.01 221.42 8,762.42
Case Total 21,909.90 12,888.00 540.71 35,338.61 21,903.66 12,837.44 519.75 35,260.85 21,854.91 12,779.47 500.24 35,134.63
Area
2023-2024:
Residential
2023-2024:
Commercial
2023-2024:
Ind
FirmSale
2023-2024:
Total
2024-2025:
Residential
2024-2025:
Commercial
2024-2025:
Ind
FirmSale
2024-2025:
Total
2025-2026:
Residential
2025-2026:
Commercial
2025-2026:
Ind
FirmSale
2025-2026:
Total
Klamath Falls 887.60 442.82 7.43 1,337.85 885.12 439.29 6.40 1,330.81 887.96 438.25 5.39 1,331.59
La Grande 475.80 302.87 14.95 793.62 472.50 300.55 11.92 784.97 471.52 299.77 8.98 780.26
Medford GTN 2,345.88 1,441.33 13.70 3,800.92 2,339.53 1,436.54 12.91 3,788.98 2,345.76 1,438.63 12.14 3,796.53
Medford NWP 1,053.95 647.55 6.16 1,707.66 1,051.09 645.40 5.80 1,702.30 1,053.89 646.34 5.46 1,705.69
Roseburg 730.31 557.15 - 1,287.46 728.96 551.77 - 1,280.73 731.42 549.20 - 1,280.62
OR Sub-Total 5,493.54 3,391.72 42.25 8,927.51 5,477.20 3,373.56 37.02 8,887.78 5,490.55 3,372.19 31.96 8,894.70
Washington Both 6,386.36 3,672.84 130.43 10,189.63 6,319.52 3,629.49 125.88 10,074.88 6,261.94 3,604.62 121.91 9,988.47
Washington GTN 880.88 506.60 17.99 1,405.47 871.66 500.62 17.36 1,389.64 863.72 497.19 16.82 1,377.72
Washington NWP 3,743.73 2,153.04 76.46 5,973.23 3,704.54 2,127.63 73.79 5,905.97 3,670.80 2,113.05 71.46 5,855.31
WA Sub-Total 11,010.96 6,332.48 224.89 17,568.32 10,895.72 6,257.74 217.03 17,370.49 10,796.46 6,214.86 210.19 17,221.50
Idaho Both 3,213.90 1,765.04 125.35 5,104.29 3,180.85 1,739.35 121.26 5,041.45 3,151.09 1,722.19 117.76 4,991.04
Idaho GTN 443.30 243.45 17.29 704.04 438.74 239.91 16.73 695.37 434.63 237.54 16.24 688.42
Idaho NWP 1,884.01 1,034.68 73.48 2,992.17 1,864.63 1,019.62 71.08 2,955.33 1,847.19 1,009.56 69.03 2,925.78
ID Sub-Total 5,541.21 3,043.17 216.13 8,800.50 5,484.22 2,998.87 209.07 8,692.16 5,432.92 2,969.30 203.03 8,605.24
Case Total 22,045.71 12,767.36 483.26 35,296.33 21,857.14 12,630.17 463.12 34,950.43 21,719.92 12,556.34 445.18 34,721.44
Area
2026-2027:
Residential
2026-2027:
Commercial
2026-2027:
Ind
FirmSale
2026-2027:
Total
2027-2028:
Residential
2027-2028:
Commercial
2027-2028:
Ind
FirmSale
2027-2028:
Total
2028-2029:
Residential
2028-2029:
Commercial
2028-2029:
Ind
FirmSale
2028-2029:
Total
Klamath Falls 890.42 437.15 4.38 1,331.95 897.08 438.17 3.38 1,338.64 893.33 434.75 2.36 1,330.45
La Grande 470.30 298.80 6.81 775.91 470.65 298.74 4.65 774.04 466.58 295.81 2.49 764.88
Medford GTN 2,351.10 1,440.30 11.35 3,802.75 2,366.09 1,447.64 10.58 3,824.31 2,356.52 1,441.84 9.71 3,808.07
Medford NWP 1,056.29 647.09 5.10 1,708.48 1,063.03 650.39 4.75 1,718.17 1,058.73 647.78 4.36 1,710.87
Roseburg 733.73 546.50 - 1,280.22 739.08 546.09 - 1,285.16 736.90 540.50 - 1,277.40
OR Sub-Total 5,501.84 3,369.83 27.65 8,899.31 5,535.92 3,381.04 23.36 8,940.32 5,512.06 3,360.69 18.92 8,891.67
Washington Both 6,193.46 3,577.92 117.96 9,889.34 6,145.86 3,567.48 114.47 9,827.81 6,033.46 3,522.11 110.09 9,665.67
Washington GTN 854.27 493.51 16.27 1,364.05 847.70 492.07 15.79 1,355.56 832.20 485.81 15.18 1,333.20
Washington NWP 3,630.65 2,097.40 69.15 5,797.20 3,602.75 2,091.28 67.10 5,761.13 3,536.86 2,064.69 64.54 5,666.08
WA Sub-Total 10,678.37 6,168.84 203.38 17,050.59 10,596.31 6,150.83 197.36 16,944.51 10,402.52 6,072.61 189.81 16,664.94
Idaho Both 3,116.09 1,704.88 114.27 4,935.25 3,092.23 1,695.07 111.25 4,898.55 3,037.64 1,669.72 107.33 4,814.68
Idaho GTN 429.81 235.16 15.76 680.72 426.51 233.80 15.34 675.66 418.98 230.31 14.80 664.09
Idaho NWP 1,826.68 999.42 66.98 2,893.08 1,812.69 993.66 65.22 2,871.56 1,780.68 978.80 62.92 2,822.40
ID Sub-Total 5,372.58 2,939.46 197.01 8,509.05 5,331.44 2,922.53 191.81 8,445.77 5,237.30 2,878.83 185.05 8,301.18
Case Total 21,552.79 12,478.12 428.04 34,458.95 21,463.66 12,454.40 412.54 34,330.60 21,151.88 12,312.13 393.78 33,857.79
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 108
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
LOW GROWTH HIGH PRICE

Area
2029-2030:
Residential
2029-2030:
Commercial
2029-2030:
Ind
FirmSale
2029-2030:
Total
2030-2031:
Residential
2030-2031:
Commercial
2030-2031:
Ind
FirmSale
2030-2031:
Total
2031-2032:
Residential
2031-2032:
Commercial
2031-2032:
Ind
FirmSale
2031-2032:
Total
Klamath Falls 894.55 433.84 1.36 1,329.74 895.54 433.01 0.37 1,328.92 901.22 434.21 - 1,335.43
La Grande 464.65 294.31 0.81 759.78 462.78 292.93 - 755.71 462.91 292.90 - 755.81
Medford GTN 2,358.43 1,442.63 8.87 3,809.94 2,359.40 1,443.20 8.02 3,810.62 2,370.52 1,449.72 7.17 3,827.41
Medford NWP 1,059.59 648.14 3.99 1,711.71 1,060.02 648.40 3.60 1,712.02 1,065.02 651.32 3.22 1,719.56
Roseburg 738.26 537.64 - 1,275.90 739.10 534.78 - 1,273.88 742.96 534.26 - 1,277.22
OR Sub-Total 5,515.48 3,356.56 15.02 8,887.06 5,516.85 3,352.32 11.99 8,881.16 5,542.63 3,362.42 10.39 8,915.44
Washington Both 5,955.52 3,497.77 106.22 9,559.51 5,883.84 3,474.80 102.38 9,461.02 5,848.95 3,470.19 98.93 9,418.07
Washington GTN 821.45 482.45 14.65 1,318.55 811.56 479.28 14.12 1,304.97 806.75 478.65 13.65 1,299.04
Washington NWP 3,491.17 2,050.42 62.27 5,603.85 3,449.15 2,036.95 60.02 5,546.11 3,428.70 2,034.25 57.99 5,520.94
WA Sub-Total 10,268.13 6,030.64 183.15 16,481.92 10,144.55 5,991.03 176.52 16,312.10 10,084.40 5,983.08 170.57 16,238.05
Idaho Both 3,001.46 1,654.09 103.92 4,759.48 2,970.30 1,639.44 100.53 4,710.27 2,959.42 1,633.33 97.55 4,690.31
Idaho GTN 414.00 228.15 14.33 656.48 409.70 226.13 13.87 649.69 408.20 225.29 13.46 646.94
Idaho NWP 1,759.48 969.64 60.92 2,790.04 1,741.21 961.05 58.93 2,761.19 1,734.83 957.47 57.19 2,749.49
ID Sub-Total 5,174.94 2,851.89 179.17 8,205.99 5,121.20 2,826.62 173.32 8,121.15 5,102.45 2,816.09 168.20 8,086.74
Case Total 20,958.55 12,239.08 377.34 33,574.97 20,782.61 12,169.97 361.83 33,314.41 20,729.48 12,161.58 349.16 33,240.23
Area
2032-2033:
Residential
2032-2033:
Commercial
2032-2033:
Ind
FirmSale
2032-2033:
Total
2033-2034:
Residential
2033-2034:
Commercial
2033-2034:
Ind
FirmSale
2033-2034:
Total
2034-2035:
Residential
2034-2035:
Commercial
2034-2035:
Ind
FirmSale
2034-2035:
Total
Klamath Falls 897.36 431.09 - 1,328.45 898.18 430.02 - 1,328.20 898.98 428.94 - 1,327.92
La Grande 459.19 290.44 - 749.63 457.53 289.33 - 746.86 455.90 288.34 - 744.23
Medford GTN 2,358.79 1,443.66 6.25 3,808.70 2,357.52 1,443.60 5.34 3,806.46 2,355.79 1,443.42 4.42 3,803.63
Medford NWP 1,059.75 648.60 2.81 1,711.16 1,059.18 648.57 2.40 1,710.15 1,058.40 648.49 1.99 1,708.88
Roseburg 739.87 528.97 - 1,268.85 740.07 526.04 - 1,266.11 740.19 523.14 - 1,263.33
OR Sub-Total 5,514.97 3,342.76 9.05 8,866.78 5,512.48 3,337.56 7.74 8,857.78 5,509.25 3,332.33 6.41 8,847.99 Washington Both 5,765.54 3,435.25 94.74 9,295.53 5,717.44 3,421.52 90.95 9,229.91 5,677.98 3,411.19 87.17 9,176.34
Washington GTN 795.25 473.83 13.07 1,282.14 788.61 471.93 12.54 1,273.09 783.17 470.51 12.02 1,265.70
Washington NWP 3,379.80 2,013.77 55.54 5,449.10 3,351.60 2,005.72 53.32 5,410.64 3,328.47 1,999.67 51.10 5,379.23
WA Sub-Total 9,940.59 5,922.84 163.35 16,026.78 9,857.65 5,899.17 156.81 15,913.63 9,789.62 5,881.37 150.29 15,821.27
Idaho Both 2,926.48 1,613.97 93.81 4,634.26 2,912.92 1,604.60 90.48 4,607.99 2,905.00 1,596.87 87.15 4,589.02
Idaho GTN 403.65 222.62 12.94 639.21 401.78 221.32 12.48 635.59 400.69 220.26 12.02 632.97
Idaho NWP 1,715.52 946.12 54.99 2,716.63 1,707.57 940.63 53.04 2,701.24 1,702.93 936.09 51.09 2,690.12
ID Sub-Total 5,045.66 2,782.70 161.74 7,990.10 5,022.27 2,766.56 155.99 7,944.82 5,008.62 2,753.22 150.26 7,912.11
Case Total 20,501.21 12,048.31 334.14 32,883.66 20,392.40 12,003.29 320.54 32,716.23 20,307.49 11,966.92 306.96 32,581.37
Area
2035-2036:
Residential
2035-2036:
Commercial
2035-2036:
Ind
FirmSale
2035-2036:
Total
2036-2037:
Residential
2036-2037:
Commercial
2036-2037:
Ind
FirmSale
2036-2037:
Total
Klamath Falls 904.66 430.04 - 1,334.70 900.71 426.79 - 1,327.51
La Grande 456.31 288.67 - 744.98 452.91 286.41 - 739.32
Medford GTN 2,365.13 1,449.38 3.51 3,818.02 2,352.12 1,442.77 2.57 3,797.46
Medford NWP 1,062.59 651.17 1.58 1,715.34 1,056.75 648.20 1.16 1,706.11
Roseburg 743.76 522.59 - 1,266.35 740.50 517.26 - 1,257.76
OR Sub-Total 5,532.45 3,341.85 5.09 8,879.39 5,502.99 3,321.44 3.73 8,828.16
Washington Both 5,674.94 3,420.56 83.72 9,179.21 5,619.00 3,399.29 79.62 9,097.91
Washington GTN 782.75 471.80 11.55 1,266.10 775.03 468.87 10.98 1,254.88
Washington NWP 3,326.69 2,005.15 49.07 5,380.92 3,293.90 1,992.69 46.67 5,333.26
WA Sub-Total 9,784.38 5,897.51 144.34 15,826.23 9,687.93 5,860.84 137.28 15,686.05
Idaho Both 2,988.78 1,597.98 84.18 4,670.94 2,829.63 1,585.64 80.53 4,495.80
Idaho GTN 412.25 220.41 11.61 644.27 390.29 218.71 11.11 620.11
Idaho NWP 1,752.04 936.75 49.35 2,738.14 1,658.75 929.51 47.20 2,635.47
ID Sub-Total 5,153.06 2,755.13 145.14 8,053.34 4,878.67 2,733.87 138.84 7,751.38
Case Total 20,469.89 11,994.50 294.57 32,758.96 20,069.60 11,916.15 279.84 32,265.59
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 109
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE

Area
2017-2018:
Residential
2017-2018:
Commercial
2017-2018:
Ind
FirmSale
2017-2018:
Total
2018-2019:
Residential
2018-2019:
Commercial
2018-2019:
Ind
FirmSale
2018-2019:
Total
2019-2020:
Residential
2019-2020:
Commercial
2019-2020:
Ind
FirmSale
2019-2020:
Total
Klamath Falls 881.72 456.05 14.37 1,352.15 893.78 458.64 15.22 1,367.64 909.69 464.28 16.16 1,390.14
La Grande 489.91 314.01 53.19 857.10 493.41 315.71 64.23 873.35 498.66 318.60 74.75 892.01
Medford GTN 2,319.19 1,444.15 18.94 3,782.28 2,351.04 1,460.29 19.35 3,830.68 2,393.03 1,481.67 19.86 3,894.57
Medford NWP 1,041.96 648.82 8.51 1,699.28 1,056.26 656.07 8.69 1,721.03 1,075.13 665.68 8.92 1,749.73
Roseburg 724.99 580.32 2.67 1,307.97 734.09 583.06 3.24 1,320.40 746.20 587.66 3.83 1,337.69
OR Sub-Total 5,457.76 3,443.35 97.68 8,998.79 5,528.58 3,473.77 110.74 9,113.10 5,622.71 3,517.90 123.53 9,264.14
Washington Both 6,366.46 3,779.14 157.78 10,303.39 6,475.63 3,811.46 161.07 10,448.16 6,591.71 3,857.14 164.97 10,613.82
Washington GTN 878.13 521.26 21.76 1,421.16 893.19 525.72 22.22 1,441.13 909.20 532.02 22.75 1,463.97
Washington NWP 3,732.06 2,215.36 92.49 6,039.92 3,796.06 2,234.30 94.42 6,124.79 3,864.11 2,261.08 96.70 6,221.89
WA Sub-Total 10,976.66 6,515.77 272.04 17,764.46 11,164.88 6,571.48 277.72 18,014.08 11,365.02 6,650.24 284.42 18,299.68
Idaho Both 3,203.31 1,856.52 149.22 5,209.05 3,259.62 1,871.21 152.04 5,282.88 3,327.18 1,892.37 155.47 5,375.02
Idaho GTN 441.84 256.07 20.58 718.49 449.60 258.10 20.97 728.67 458.92 261.02 21.44 741.38
Idaho NWP 1,877.80 1,088.30 87.47 3,053.58 1,910.81 1,096.92 89.13 3,096.86 1,950.42 1,109.32 91.13 3,150.87
ID Sub-Total 5,522.95 3,200.89 257.27 8,981.12 5,620.04 3,226.23 262.14 9,108.41 5,736.52 3,262.71 268.04 9,267.28
Case Total 21,957.37 13,160.00 626.99 35,744.36 22,313.50 13,271.48 650.59 36,235.58 22,724.25 13,430.85 676.00 36,831.10
Area
2020-2021:
Residential
2020-2021:
Commercial
2020-2021:
Ind
FirmSale
2020-2021:
Total
2021-2022:
Residential
2021-2022:
Commercial
2021-2022:
Ind
FirmSale
2021-2022:
Total
2022-2023:
Residential
2022-2023:
Commercial
2022-2023:
Ind
FirmSale
2022-2023:
TotalKlamath Falls 916.68 465.28 17.02 1,398.99 928.46 468.24 17.96 1,414.66 940.24 471.40 18.90 1,430.53
La Grande 499.82 318.85 85.10 903.77 502.84 320.36 95.70 918.89 505.62 321.81 106.29 933.71
Medford GTN 2,414.05 1,491.25 20.30 3,925.60 2,445.49 1,506.64 20.83 3,972.97 2,476.06 1,521.92 21.36 4,019.33
Medford NWP 1,084.57 669.98 9.12 1,763.67 1,098.70 676.90 9.36 1,784.96 1,112.43 683.76 9.60 1,805.79
Roseburg 752.10 587.58 4.40 1,344.08 761.53 589.92 4.99 1,356.44 771.08 592.44 5.57 1,369.09
OR Sub-Total 5,667.22 3,532.94 135.94 9,336.10 5,737.02 3,562.05 148.84 9,447.91 5,805.42 3,591.33 161.71 9,558.45
Washington Both 6,640.57 3,867.88 167.65 10,676.09 6,694.80 3,888.52 170.92 10,754.24 6,727.91 3,903.22 174.19 10,805.33
Washington GTN 915.94 533.50 23.12 1,472.56 923.42 536.35 23.58 1,483.34 927.99 538.38 24.03 1,490.39
Washington NWP 3,892.75 2,267.38 98.27 6,258.40 3,924.54 2,279.48 100.19 6,304.21 3,943.95 2,288.10 102.11 6,334.16
WA Sub-Total 11,449.25 6,668.76 289.04 18,407.06 11,542.76 6,704.34 294.69 18,541.79 11,599.84 6,729.69 300.33 18,629.87
Idaho Both 3,365.66 1,897.60 157.67 5,420.93 3,409.08 1,908.36 160.47 5,477.91 3,442.83 1,916.43 163.26 5,522.53
Idaho GTN 464.23 261.74 21.75 747.71 470.22 263.22 22.13 755.57 474.87 264.34 22.52 761.73
Idaho NWP 1,972.97 1,112.39 92.43 3,177.79 1,998.43 1,118.69 94.07 3,211.19 2,018.21 1,123.43 95.71 3,237.34
ID Sub-Total 5,802.86 3,271.72 271.85 9,346.43 5,877.73 3,290.27 276.68 9,444.68 5,935.92 3,304.19 281.49 9,521.60
Case Total 22,919.33 13,473.42 696.84 37,089.59 23,157.51 13,556.66 720.21 37,434.37 23,341.18 13,625.21 743.53 37,709.93
Area
2023-2024:
Residential
2023-2024:
Commercial
2023-2024:
Ind
FirmSale
2023-2024:
Total
2024-2025:
Residential
2024-2025:
Commercial
2024-2025:
Ind
FirmSale
2024-2025:
Total
2025-2026:
Residential
2025-2026:
Commercial
2025-2026:
Ind
FirmSale
2025-2026:
Total
Klamath Falls 956.74 476.75 19.89 1,453.38 962.10 476.95 20.73 1,459.79 973.09 479.74 21.63 1,474.46
La Grande 510.18 324.49 117.08 951.76 509.91 324.09 127.31 961.31 511.79 325.13 137.76 974.69
Medford GTN 2,513.57 1,541.89 21.93 4,077.39 2,523.51 1,547.06 22.36 4,092.93 2,546.87 1,559.56 22.84 4,129.28
Medford NWP 1,129.29 692.73 9.85 1,831.87 1,133.75 695.06 10.05 1,838.85 1,144.25 700.67 10.26 1,855.18
Roseburg 784.06 597.39 6.19 1,387.64 789.18 596.61 6.73 1,392.52 798.35 598.73 7.31 1,404.39
OR Sub-Total 5,893.85 3,633.26 174.93 9,702.04 5,918.45 3,639.76 187.18 9,745.40 5,974.36 3,663.82 199.82 9,838.00
Washington Both 6,841.93 3,930.00 178.11 10,950.04 6,825.75 3,914.06 180.58 10,920.40 6,819.52 3,916.83 183.83 10,920.19
Washington GTN 943.71 542.07 24.57 1,510.35 941.48 539.87 24.91 1,506.26 940.62 540.25 25.36 1,506.23
Washington NWP 4,010.79 2,303.79 104.41 6,418.99 4,001.30 2,294.45 105.86 6,401.61 3,997.65 2,296.07 107.76 6,401.49
WA Sub-Total 11,796.43 6,775.86 307.09 18,879.38 11,768.53 6,748.38 311.35 18,828.27 11,757.80 6,753.16 316.95 18,827.91
Idaho Both 3,519.47 1,929.35 166.71 5,615.52 3,523.41 1,922.09 168.75 5,614.25 3,531.17 1,923.46 171.54 5,626.16
Idaho GTN 485.44 266.12 22.99 774.55 485.99 265.12 23.28 774.38 487.06 265.30 23.66 776.02
Idaho NWP 2,063.14 1,131.00 97.72 3,291.86 2,065.45 1,126.74 98.92 3,291.11 2,070.00 1,127.54 100.56 3,298.10
ID Sub-Total 6,068.04 3,326.46 287.42 9,681.93 6,074.85 3,313.95 290.94 9,679.74 6,088.22 3,316.31 295.75 9,700.28
Case Total 23,758.33 13,735.58 769.44 38,263.35 23,761.83 13,702.10 789.47 38,253.41 23,820.38 13,733.28 812.52 38,366.18
Area
2026-2027:
Residential
2026-2027:
Commercial
2026-2027:
Ind
FirmSale
2026-2027:
Total
2027-2028:
Residential
2027-2028:
Commercial
2027-2028:
Ind
FirmSale
2027-2028:
Total
2028-2029:
Residential
2028-2029:
Commercial
2028-2029:
Ind
FirmSale
2028-2029:
Total
Klamath Falls 983.55 482.35 22.52 1,488.43 998.48 487.20 23.47 1,509.16 1,002.24 487.20 24.25 1,513.68
La Grande 513.87 326.25 148.15 988.27 518.61 328.98 158.85 1,006.44 519.52 329.15 168.72 1,017.38
Medford GTN 2,569.36 1,571.63 23.31 4,164.29 2,602.41 1,589.87 23.82 4,216.09 2,610.31 1,594.51 24.17 4,228.98
Medford NWP 1,154.35 706.09 10.47 1,870.91 1,169.20 714.29 10.70 1,894.19 1,172.75 716.37 10.86 1,899.98
Roseburg 807.59 600.83 7.89 1,416.31 820.37 605.50 8.51 1,434.38 825.42 604.72 9.04 1,439.18
OR Sub-Total 6,028.72 3,687.15 212.34 9,928.21 6,109.07 3,725.84 225.35 10,060.26 6,130.23 3,731.95 237.03 10,099.21
Washington Both 6,801.89 3,917.29 187.10 10,906.28 6,807.40 3,935.06 191.10 10,933.56 6,747.51 3,916.96 193.72 10,858.18
Washington GTN 938.19 540.32 25.81 1,504.31 938.95 542.77 26.36 1,508.08 930.69 540.27 26.72 1,497.68
Washington NWP 3,987.32 2,296.34 109.68 6,393.34 3,990.54 2,306.76 112.03 6,409.33 3,955.44 2,296.15 113.56 6,365.14
WA Sub-Total 11,727.40 6,753.94 322.59 18,803.93 11,736.90 6,784.59 329.49 18,850.97 11,633.64 6,753.38 333.99 18,721.01
Idaho Both 3,533.81 1,924.47 174.34 5,632.63 3,549.95 1,933.95 177.88 5,661.77 3,535.49 1,927.29 180.03 5,642.81
Idaho GTN 487.42 265.44 24.05 776.91 489.65 266.75 24.53 780.93 487.65 265.83 24.83 778.32
Idaho NWP 2,071.55 1,128.14 102.20 3,301.88 2,081.00 1,133.69 104.27 3,318.97 2,072.53 1,129.79 105.53 3,307.86
ID Sub-Total 6,092.78 3,318.05 300.59 9,711.42 6,120.60 3,334.39 306.68 9,761.67 6,095.67 3,322.92 310.40 9,728.99
Case Total 23,848.90 13,759.14 835.52 38,443.57 23,966.56 13,844.82 861.52 38,672.90 23,859.53 13,808.25 881.42 38,549.20
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 110
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE

Area
2029-2030:
Residential
2029-2030:
Commercial
2029-2030:
Ind
FirmSale
2029-2030:
Total
2030-2031:
Residential
2030-2031:
Commercial
2030-2031:
Ind
FirmSale
2030-2031:
Total
2031-2032:
Residential
2031-2032:
Commercial
2031-2032:
Ind
FirmSale
2031-2032:
Total
Klamath Falls 1,010.07 489.32 25.10 1,524.49 1,017.43 491.41 25.94 1,534.78 1,030.34 495.89 26.86 1,553.09
La Grande 522.35 330.63 178.96 1,031.93 524.76 331.93 189.14 1,045.84 529.08 334.53 199.76 1,063.37
Medford GTN 2,628.70 1,605.31 24.58 4,258.60 2,645.77 1,615.70 24.98 4,286.45 2,673.93 1,632.56 25.43 4,331.91
Medford NWP 1,181.01 721.23 11.04 1,913.28 1,188.68 725.90 11.22 1,925.80 1,201.33 733.47 11.43 1,946.22
Roseburg 833.56 606.36 9.61 1,449.53 840.53 607.50 10.18 1,458.21 850.51 610.96 10.80 1,472.28
OR Sub-Total 6,175.69 3,752.85 249.30 10,177.83 6,217.18 3,772.44 261.47 10,251.09 6,285.19 3,807.41 274.28 10,366.88
Washington Both 6,718.62 3,918.12 197.06 10,833.80 6,695.04 3,919.93 200.43 10,815.40 6,711.10 3,941.56 204.58 10,857.25
Washington GTN 926.71 540.43 27.18 1,494.32 923.45 540.68 27.65 1,491.78 925.67 543.66 28.22 1,497.55
Washington NWP 3,938.50 2,296.83 115.52 6,350.85 3,924.68 2,297.89 117.50 6,340.06 3,934.09 2,310.57 119.93 6,364.59
WA Sub-Total 11,583.83 6,755.37 339.77 18,678.96 11,543.17 6,758.50 345.58 18,647.24 11,570.86 6,795.80 352.73 18,719.39
Idaho Both 3,538.90 1,930.14 182.91 5,651.95 3,548.56 1,934.29 185.82 5,668.67 3,582.42 1,948.63 189.49 5,720.55
Idaho GTN 488.12 266.23 25.23 779.58 489.46 266.80 25.63 781.89 494.13 268.78 26.14 789.04
Idaho NWP 2,074.53 1,131.46 107.23 3,313.21 2,080.19 1,133.89 108.93 3,323.01 2,100.04 1,142.30 111.08 3,353.42
ID Sub-Total 6,101.55 3,327.82 315.37 9,744.74 6,118.21 3,334.98 320.38 9,773.57 6,176.59 3,359.71 326.71 9,863.01
Case Total 23,861.06 13,836.04 904.43 38,601.54 23,878.56 13,865.92 927.42 38,671.90 24,032.64 13,962.92 953.72 38,949.28
Area
2032-2033:
Residential
2032-2033:
Commercial
2032-2033:
Ind
FirmSale
2032-2033:
Total
2033-2034:
Residential
2033-2034:
Commercial
2033-2034:
Ind
FirmSale
2033-2034:
Total
2034-2035:
Residential
2034-2035:
Commercial
2034-2035:
Ind
FirmSale
2034-2035:
Total
Klamath Falls 1,032.66 495.59 27.57 1,555.82 1,040.47 497.65 28.37 1,566.50 1,048.27 499.71 29.16 1,577.15
La Grande 528.69 334.15 209.31 1,072.15 530.15 335.01 219.32 1,084.49 531.43 335.86 229.30 1,096.59
Medford GTN 2,676.20 1,635.18 25.71 4,337.09 2,689.97 1,644.38 26.05 4,360.41 2,702.98 1,653.33 26.39 4,382.70
Medford NWP 1,202.35 734.64 11.55 1,948.55 1,208.54 738.78 11.71 1,959.02 1,214.38 742.80 11.86 1,969.04
Roseburg 852.49 608.90 11.31 1,472.70 858.11 609.42 11.88 1,479.40 863.61 609.90 12.44 1,485.95
OR Sub-Total 6,292.39 3,808.46 285.46 10,386.30 6,327.24 3,825.24 297.33 10,449.82 6,360.67 3,841.61 309.14 10,511.43 Washington Both 6,670.86 3,928.30 207.23 10,806.39 6,668.63 3,937.64 210.65 10,816.92 6,674.42 3,949.89 214.08 10,838.38
Washington GTN 920.12 541.84 28.58 1,490.54 919.81 543.12 29.06 1,491.99 920.61 544.81 29.53 1,494.95
Washington NWP 3,910.50 2,302.80 121.48 6,334.78 3,909.20 2,308.27 123.48 6,340.95 3,912.59 2,315.45 125.49 6,353.53
WA Sub-Total 11,501.48 6,772.94 357.29 18,631.71 11,497.64 6,789.03 363.19 18,649.86 11,507.61 6,810.15 369.10 18,686.86
Idaho Both 3,590.58 1,947.51 191.68 5,729.78 3,621.92 1,957.98 194.65 5,774.55 3,660.20 1,970.35 197.62 5,828.16
Idaho GTN 495.25 268.62 26.44 790.31 499.58 270.07 26.85 796.49 504.86 271.77 27.26 803.88
Idaho NWP 2,104.83 1,141.64 112.37 3,358.84 2,123.20 1,147.78 114.10 3,385.08 2,145.64 1,155.03 115.84 3,416.51
ID Sub-Total 6,190.66 3,357.77 330.49 9,878.93 6,244.70 3,375.82 335.60 9,956.11 6,310.69 3,397.15 340.72 10,048.56
Case Total 23,984.53 13,939.17 973.24 38,896.94 24,069.58 13,990.10 996.11 39,055.79 24,178.98 14,048.90 1,018.96 39,246.84
Area
2035-2036:
Residential
2035-2036:
Commercial
2035-2036:
Ind
FirmSale
2035-2036:
Total
2036-2037:
Residential
2036-2037:
Commercial
2036-2037:
Ind
FirmSale
2036-2037:
Total
Klamath Falls 1,061.91 504.37 30.05 1,596.33 1,064.46 504.01 30.74 1,599.21
La Grande 534.76 338.04 239.86 1,112.66 533.50 337.12 249.22 1,119.83
Medford GTN 2,728.57 1,669.26 26.79 4,424.62 2,728.57 1,670.86 27.04 4,426.47
Medford NWP 1,225.88 749.96 12.04 1,987.87 1,225.88 750.67 12.15 1,988.70
Roseburg 873.16 613.12 13.06 1,499.34 874.80 610.79 13.56 1,499.14
OR Sub-Total 6,424.27 3,874.75 321.81 10,620.83 6,427.20 3,873.46 332.70 10,633.36
Washington Both 6,720.65 3,983.94 218.33 10,922.92 6,705.23 3,982.33 220.96 10,908.53
Washington GTN 926.99 549.51 30.11 1,506.61 924.86 549.29 30.48 1,504.62
Washington NWP 3,939.69 2,335.42 127.99 6,403.09 3,930.65 2,334.47 129.53 6,394.65
WA Sub-Total 11,587.32 6,868.87 376.43 18,832.63 11,560.75 6,866.09 380.97 18,807.81
Idaho Both 3,722.33 1,993.46 201.39 5,917.19 3,753.85 2,000.30 203.58 5,957.72
Idaho GTN 513.42 274.96 27.78 816.16 517.77 275.90 28.08 821.75
Idaho NWP 2,182.05 1,168.58 118.06 3,468.69 2,200.53 1,172.59 119.34 3,492.45
ID Sub-Total 6,417.81 3,437.01 347.23 10,202.04 6,472.15 3,448.79 350.99 10,271.93
Case Total 24,429.40 14,180.62 1,045.47 39,655.50 24,460.09 14,188.34 1,064.66 39,713.09
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 111
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
AVERAGE MIX

Area
2017-2018:
Residential
2017-2018:
Commercial
2017-2018:
Ind
FirmSale
2017-2018:
Total
2018-2019:
Residential
2018-2019:
Commercial
2018-2019:
Ind
FirmSale
2018-2019:
Total
2019-2020:
Residential
2019-2020:
Commercial
2019-2020:
Ind
FirmSale
2019-2020:
Total
Klamath Falls 848.68 440.78 13.86 1,303.32 856.66 441.43 13.71 1,311.79 868.65 445.18 13.63 1,327.47
La Grande 468.70 301.02 53.19 822.90 470.01 301.34 56.66 828.02 473.24 302.97 56.98 833.19
Medford GTN 2,210.25 1,389.32 18.51 3,618.08 2,231.59 1,399.25 18.29 3,649.14 2,263.10 1,414.44 18.17 3,695.71
Medford NWP 993.01 624.19 8.31 1,625.51 1,002.60 628.65 8.22 1,639.47 1,016.75 635.47 8.16 1,660.39
Roseburg 686.98 554.98 2.33 1,244.29 692.85 555.39 2.30 1,250.54 701.76 557.74 2.29 1,261.79
OR Sub-Total 5,207.61 3,310.29 96.19 8,614.10 5,253.72 3,326.06 99.18 8,678.95 5,323.51 3,355.80 99.23 8,778.54
Washington Both 6,102.55 3,628.54 153.06 9,884.15 6,183.26 3,645.57 151.33 9,980.17 6,259.05 3,669.73 150.10 10,078.87
Washington GTN 841.73 500.49 21.11 1,363.33 852.86 502.84 20.87 1,376.57 863.32 506.17 20.70 1,390.19
Washington NWP 3,577.36 2,127.07 89.73 5,794.16 3,624.67 2,137.06 88.71 5,850.44 3,669.10 2,151.22 87.99 5,908.30
WA Sub-Total 10,521.64 6,256.10 263.90 17,041.64 10,660.80 6,285.47 260.92 17,207.18 10,791.46 6,327.12 258.79 17,377.37
Idaho Both 3,065.38 1,786.48 146.36 4,998.22 3,102.96 1,791.28 147.81 5,042.05 3,150.70 1,802.15 148.67 5,101.51
Idaho GTN 422.81 246.41 20.19 689.41 427.99 247.07 20.39 695.45 434.58 248.57 20.51 703.66
Idaho NWP 1,796.95 1,047.25 85.80 2,929.99 1,818.98 1,050.06 86.65 2,955.68 1,846.96 1,056.43 87.15 2,990.54
ID Sub-Total 5,285.13 3,080.13 252.35 8,617.62 5,349.93 3,088.41 254.84 8,693.19 5,432.24 3,107.15 256.32 8,795.71
Case Total 21,014.38 12,646.52 612.45 34,273.35 21,264.44 12,699.94 614.94 34,579.32 21,547.20 12,790.07 614.34 34,951.61
Area
2020-2021:
Residential
2020-2021:
Commercial
2020-2021:
Ind
FirmSale
2020-2021:
Total
2021-2022:
Residential
2021-2022:
Commercial
2021-2022:
Ind
FirmSale
2021-2022:
Total
2022-2023:
Residential
2022-2023:
Commercial
2022-2023:
Ind
FirmSale
2022-2023:
Total
Klamath Falls 871.72 444.30 13.48 1,329.51 875.13 443.49 13.38 1,332.01 881.57 444.20 13.30 1,339.08
La Grande 472.49 302.01 56.72 831.22 471.86 301.36 56.45 829.67 472.37 301.41 56.14 829.92
Medford GTN 2,273.76 1,417.90 17.99 3,709.65 2,284.87 1,422.37 17.88 3,725.12 2,302.43 1,430.29 17.77 3,750.49
Medford NWP 1,021.54 637.03 8.08 1,666.65 1,026.53 639.04 8.03 1,673.60 1,034.43 642.59 7.98 1,685.00
Roseburg 704.41 555.40 2.26 1,262.07 707.19 553.32 2.24 1,262.75 712.36 552.90 2.23 1,267.49
OR Sub-Total 5,343.93 3,356.64 98.54 8,799.10 5,365.59 3,359.58 97.99 8,823.16 5,403.16 3,371.40 97.43 8,871.99
Washington Both 6,267.13 3,658.83 147.79 10,073.74 6,287.10 3,661.32 146.18 10,094.60 6,283.66 3,656.81 144.58 10,085.04
Washington GTN 864.43 504.67 20.38 1,389.48 867.19 505.01 20.16 1,392.36 866.71 504.39 19.94 1,391.04
Washington NWP 3,673.83 2,144.83 86.63 5,905.30 3,685.54 2,146.29 85.69 5,917.52 3,683.52 2,143.65 84.75 5,911.92
WA Sub-Total 10,805.39 6,308.32 254.81 17,368.52 10,839.83 6,312.62 252.03 17,404.48 10,833.89 6,304.84 249.27 17,388.00
Idaho Both 3,168.64 1,796.92 147.94 5,113.50 3,187.60 1,795.66 147.60 5,130.86 3,196.15 1,791.59 147.21 5,134.94
Idaho GTN 437.05 247.85 20.41 705.31 439.67 247.68 20.36 707.70 440.85 247.12 20.30 708.27
Idaho NWP 1,857.48 1,053.37 86.72 2,997.57 1,868.59 1,052.63 86.52 3,007.75 1,873.60 1,050.24 86.29 3,010.14
ID Sub-Total 5,463.18 3,098.14 255.07 8,816.38 5,495.86 3,095.97 254.48 8,846.31 5,510.60 3,088.94 253.80 8,853.34
Case Total 21,612.49 12,763.10 608.41 34,984.00 21,701.28 12,768.16 604.50 35,073.94 21,747.65 12,765.18 600.50 35,113.33
Area
2023-2024:
Residential
2023-2024:
Commercial
2023-2024:
Ind
FirmSale
2023-2024:
Total
2024-2025:
Residential
2024-2025:
Commercial
2024-2025:
Ind
FirmSale
2024-2025:
Total
2025-2026:
Residential
2025-2026:
Commercial
2025-2026:
Ind
FirmSale
2025-2026:
Total
Klamath Falls 893.36 447.38 13.25 1,354.00 894.46 445.63 13.11 1,353.20 900.89 446.35 13.00 1,360.24
La Grande 475.04 302.90 55.86 833.79 473.16 301.49 55.36 830.01 473.47 301.53 54.91 829.91
Medford GTN 2,329.44 1,444.13 17.70 3,791.27 2,330.30 1,443.89 17.52 3,791.72 2,343.81 1,450.58 17.38 3,811.76
Medford NWP 1,046.56 648.81 7.95 1,703.32 1,046.95 648.70 7.87 1,703.53 1,053.01 651.71 7.81 1,712.53
Roseburg 721.42 555.25 2.23 1,278.89 722.89 552.06 2.20 1,277.15 728.17 551.67 2.18 1,282.02
OR Sub-Total 5,465.81 3,398.47 96.99 8,961.27 5,467.77 3,391.77 96.06 8,955.60 5,499.36 3,401.84 95.27 8,996.47
Washington Both 6,367.41 3,667.63 143.64 10,178.68 6,322.41 3,636.76 141.53 10,100.70 6,286.64 3,624.26 140.09 10,050.98
Washington GTN 878.26 505.88 19.81 1,403.96 872.06 501.62 19.52 1,393.20 867.12 499.90 19.32 1,386.34
Washington NWP 3,732.62 2,149.99 84.20 5,966.81 3,706.24 2,131.90 82.96 5,921.10 3,685.27 2,124.56 82.12 5,891.95
WA Sub-Total 10,978.29 6,323.50 247.65 17,549.44 10,900.71 6,270.28 244.01 17,415.00 10,839.03 6,248.72 241.53 17,329.28
Idaho Both 3,250.52 1,793.75 147.44 5,191.71 3,233.42 1,776.54 146.39 5,156.36 3,219.89 1,767.90 146.03 5,133.83
Idaho GTN 448.35 247.41 20.34 716.10 445.99 245.04 20.19 711.22 444.12 243.85 20.14 708.11
Idaho NWP 1,905.48 1,051.51 86.43 3,043.42 1,895.46 1,041.42 85.82 3,022.69 1,887.52 1,036.36 85.60 3,009.48
ID Sub-Total 5,604.35 3,092.67 254.21 8,951.23 5,574.87 3,063.00 252.40 8,890.27 5,551.54 3,048.11 251.78 8,851.42
Case Total 22,048.45 12,814.64 598.85 35,461.95 21,943.35 12,725.06 592.47 35,260.88 21,889.93 12,698.66 588.58 35,177.17
Area
2026-2027:
Residential
2026-2027:
Commercial
2026-2027:
Ind
FirmSale
2026-2027:
Total
2027-2028:
Residential
2027-2028:
Commercial
2027-2028:
Ind
FirmSale
2027-2028:
Total
2028-2029:
Residential
2028-2029:
Commercial
2028-2029:
Ind
FirmSale
2028-2029:
Total
Klamath Falls 906.87 446.95 12.87 1,366.70 917.16 449.73 12.78 1,379.67 917.08 448.02 12.58 1,377.68
La Grande 473.75 301.51 54.39 829.65 476.10 302.75 53.89 832.74 474.46 301.33 53.14 828.93
Medford GTN 2,356.41 1,456.83 17.21 3,830.45 2,379.11 1,468.98 17.08 3,865.17 2,377.88 1,468.21 16.82 3,862.92
Medford NWP 1,058.68 654.52 7.73 1,720.93 1,068.87 659.98 7.67 1,736.53 1,068.32 659.63 7.56 1,735.51
Roseburg 733.39 551.18 2.16 1,286.73 741.88 553.11 2.15 1,297.13 743.04 549.91 2.11 1,295.06
OR Sub-Total 5,529.10 3,410.99 94.37 9,034.45 5,583.12 3,434.54 93.58 9,111.24 5,580.79 3,427.10 92.21 9,100.10
Washington Both 6,239.70 3,609.67 138.68 9,988.05 6,214.69 3,611.84 137.84 9,964.37 6,127.48 3,580.05 135.99 9,843.52
Washington GTN 860.65 497.89 19.13 1,377.66 857.20 498.18 19.01 1,374.40 845.17 493.80 18.76 1,357.73
Washington NWP 3,657.75 2,116.02 81.30 5,855.07 3,643.09 2,117.28 80.80 5,841.18 3,591.97 2,098.65 79.72 5,770.34
WA Sub-Total 10,758.10 6,223.58 239.11 17,220.78 10,714.98 6,227.31 237.66 17,179.95 10,564.63 6,172.50 234.46 16,971.58
Idaho Both 3,201.12 1,758.98 145.68 5,105.79 3,194.58 1,757.99 145.95 5,098.52 3,158.76 1,741.74 145.07 5,045.56
Idaho GTN 441.53 242.62 20.09 704.25 440.63 242.48 20.13 703.24 435.69 240.24 20.01 695.94
Idaho NWP 1,876.52 1,031.13 85.40 2,993.05 1,872.68 1,030.55 85.56 2,988.79 1,851.68 1,021.02 85.04 2,957.74
ID Sub-Total 5,519.18 3,032.73 251.18 8,803.08 5,507.89 3,031.02 251.64 8,790.55 5,446.13 3,002.99 250.12 8,699.24
Case Total 21,806.38 12,667.29 584.66 35,058.32 21,806.00 12,692.87 582.88 35,081.74 21,591.55 12,602.59 576.79 34,770.93
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 112
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
AVERAGE MIX

Area
2029-2030:
Residential
2029-2030:
Commercial
2029-2030:
Ind
FirmSale
2029-2030:
Total
2030-2031:
Residential
2030-2031:
Commercial
2030-2031:
Ind
FirmSale
2030-2031:
Total
2031-2032:
Residential
2031-2032:
Commercial
2031-2032:
Ind
FirmSale
2031-2032:
Total
Klamath Falls 921.16 448.47 12.42 1,382.05 924.90 448.95 12.24 1,386.09 933.73 451.63 12.10 1,397.46
La Grande 474.69 301.19 52.48 828.36 474.75 301.03 51.75 827.54 476.76 302.19 51.06 830.01
Medford GTN 2,386.76 1,473.38 16.61 3,876.75 2,394.53 1,478.22 16.38 3,889.13 2,412.92 1,489.27 16.18 3,918.38
Medford NWP 1,072.31 661.95 7.46 1,741.73 1,075.80 664.13 7.36 1,747.29 1,084.07 669.09 7.27 1,760.43
Roseburg 747.22 549.10 2.08 1,298.41 750.60 548.05 2.05 1,300.71 757.02 549.34 2.03 1,308.39
OR Sub-Total 5,602.15 3,434.10 91.05 9,127.30 5,620.58 3,440.38 89.79 9,150.76 5,664.50 3,461.52 88.65 9,214.67
Washington Both 6,070.21 3,567.00 134.70 9,771.91 6,018.75 3,554.98 133.43 9,707.17 6,005.44 3,562.02 132.71 9,700.17
Washington GTN 837.27 492.00 18.58 1,347.85 830.17 490.34 18.40 1,338.92 828.34 491.31 18.30 1,337.95
Washington NWP 3,558.40 2,091.00 78.96 5,728.36 3,528.23 2,083.95 78.22 5,690.41 3,520.43 2,088.08 77.79 5,686.30
WA Sub-Total 10,465.88 6,150.00 232.24 16,848.11 10,377.16 6,129.27 230.06 16,736.49 10,354.21 6,141.41 228.80 16,724.43
Idaho Both 3,139.51 1,734.45 144.80 5,018.76 3,125.75 1,728.25 144.55 4,998.56 3,134.06 1,731.37 144.91 5,010.35
Idaho GTN 433.04 239.23 19.97 692.24 431.14 238.38 19.94 689.46 432.28 238.81 19.99 691.08
Idaho NWP 1,840.40 1,016.75 84.88 2,942.03 1,832.34 1,013.11 84.74 2,930.19 1,837.21 1,014.94 84.95 2,937.10
ID Sub-Total 5,412.95 2,990.43 249.66 8,653.04 5,389.23 2,979.75 249.23 8,618.21 5,403.55 2,985.12 249.85 8,638.53
Case Total 21,480.98 12,574.53 572.94 34,628.45 21,386.97 12,549.41 569.08 34,505.46 21,422.26 12,588.05 567.31 34,577.62
Area
2032-2033:
Residential
2032-2033:
Commercial
2032-2033:
Ind
FirmSale
2032-2033:
Total
2033-2034:
Residential
2033-2034:
Commercial
2033-2034:
Ind
FirmSale
2033-2034:
Total
2034-2035:
Residential
2034-2035:
Commercial
2034-2035:
Ind
FirmSale
2034-2035:
Total
Klamath Falls 932.49 449.75 11.85 1,394.09 936.33 450.07 11.64 1,398.04 940.13 450.39 11.41 1,401.94
La Grande 474.51 300.66 50.11 825.27 474.22 300.43 49.21 823.86 473.86 300.24 48.28 822.38
Medford GTN 2,407.02 1,486.93 15.86 3,909.81 2,412.09 1,490.88 15.58 3,918.54 2,416.56 1,494.64 15.29 3,926.49
Medford NWP 1,081.41 668.04 7.13 1,756.58 1,083.69 669.81 7.00 1,760.51 1,085.70 671.50 6.87 1,764.07
Roseburg 755.99 545.50 1.99 1,303.47 758.41 544.11 1.95 1,304.47 760.73 542.73 1.91 1,305.38
OR Sub-Total 5,651.42 3,450.88 86.93 9,189.23 5,664.74 3,455.30 85.38 9,205.42 5,677.00 3,459.50 83.76 9,220.26 Washington Both 5,939.90 3,536.54 130.98 9,607.42 5,910.96 3,532.94 129.78 9,573.68 5,890.36 3,532.50 128.60 9,551.46
Washington GTN 819.30 487.80 18.07 1,325.16 815.30 487.30 17.90 1,320.51 812.46 487.24 17.74 1,317.44
Washington NWP 3,482.01 2,073.15 76.78 5,631.93 3,465.04 2,071.03 76.08 5,612.16 3,452.97 2,070.78 75.39 5,599.13
WA Sub-Total 10,241.20 6,097.49 225.83 16,564.51 10,191.30 6,091.27 223.76 16,506.34 10,155.80 6,090.52 221.72 16,468.04
Idaho Both 3,118.37 1,720.08 144.12 4,982.57 3,123.77 1,719.53 143.92 4,987.23 3,135.31 1,720.69 143.74 4,999.75
Idaho GTN 430.12 237.25 19.88 687.25 430.87 237.18 19.85 687.89 432.46 237.34 19.83 689.62
Idaho NWP 1,828.01 1,008.33 84.48 2,920.82 1,831.18 1,008.00 84.37 2,923.55 1,837.94 1,008.68 84.26 2,930.89
ID Sub-Total 5,376.49 2,965.66 248.48 8,590.63 5,385.81 2,964.71 248.15 8,598.67 5,405.71 2,966.71 247.83 8,620.26
Case Total 21,269.11 12,514.03 561.23 34,344.38 21,241.86 12,511.29 557.29 34,310.43 21,238.51 12,516.73 553.32 34,308.56
Area
2035-2036:
Residential
2035-2036:
Commercial
2035-2036:
Ind
FirmSale
2035-2036:
Total
2036-2037:
Residential
2036-2037:
Commercial
2036-2037:
Ind
FirmSale
2036-2037:
Total
Klamath Falls 949.26 453.08 11.23 1,413.58 948.06 451.10 10.96 1,410.12
La Grande 475.56 301.38 47.42 824.36 473.07 299.70 46.39 819.16
Medford GTN 2,432.84 1,504.94 15.03 3,952.81 2,425.20 1,501.80 14.69 3,941.69
Medford NWP 1,093.02 676.13 6.75 1,775.90 1,089.58 674.72 6.60 1,770.91
Roseburg 766.79 543.87 1.89 1,312.56 765.50 539.86 1.84 1,307.20
OR Sub-Total 5,717.48 3,479.40 82.32 9,279.20 5,701.42 3,467.19 80.47 9,249.08
Washington Both 5,908.09 3,552.76 127.92 9,588.77 5,868.74 3,539.97 126.26 9,534.97
Washington GTN 814.91 490.04 17.64 1,322.59 809.48 488.27 17.42 1,315.17
Washington NWP 3,463.37 2,082.65 74.99 5,621.00 3,440.30 2,075.15 74.01 5,589.46
WA Sub-Total 10,186.37 6,125.44 220.55 16,532.36 10,118.52 6,103.39 217.69 16,439.60
Idaho Both 3,168.20 1,731.57 144.16 5,043.93 3,172.86 1,727.57 143.40 5,043.83
Idaho GTN 436.99 238.84 19.88 695.71 437.64 238.29 19.78 695.70
Idaho NWP 1,857.22 1,015.06 84.51 2,956.79 1,859.95 1,012.72 84.06 2,956.73
ID Sub-Total 5,462.41 2,985.47 248.55 8,696.43 5,470.45 2,978.57 247.24 8,696.26
Case Total 21,366.26 12,590.31 551.42 34,508.00 21,290.39 12,549.16 545.40 34,384.94
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 113
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
COLDEST IN 20 YEARS

Area
2017-2018:
Residential
2017-2018:
Commercial
2017-2018:
Ind
FirmSale
2017-2018:
Total
2018-2019:
Residential
2018-2019:
Commercial
2018-2019:
Ind
FirmSale
2018-2019:
Total
2019-2020:
Residential
2019-2020:
Commercial
2019-2020:
Ind
FirmSale
2019-2020:
Total
Klamath Falls 874.44 452.24 14.01 1,340.69 882.77 452.95 13.86 1,349.58 895.08 456.78 13.78 1,365.64
La Grande 480.97 308.40 53.19 842.56 482.37 308.76 56.66 847.79 485.67 310.42 56.98 853.07
Medford GTN 2,282.45 1,423.79 18.59 3,724.84 2,304.76 1,434.10 18.37 3,757.23 2,337.18 1,449.66 18.25 3,805.10
Medford NWP 1,025.45 639.68 8.35 1,673.48 1,035.47 644.31 8.26 1,688.03 1,050.04 651.30 8.20 1,709.54
Roseburg 711.76 571.05 2.37 1,285.17 717.92 571.55 2.34 1,291.80 727.11 573.95 2.33 1,303.39
OR Sub-Total 5,375.07 3,395.16 96.50 8,866.74 5,423.28 3,411.66 99.49 8,934.43 5,495.09 3,442.11 99.54 9,036.74
Washington Both 6,299.68 3,739.54 155.81 10,195.04 6,383.84 3,757.51 154.05 10,295.40 6,462.27 3,782.32 152.78 10,397.37
Washington GTN 868.92 515.80 21.49 1,406.21 880.53 518.28 21.25 1,420.05 891.35 521.70 21.07 1,434.12
Washington NWP 3,692.92 2,192.15 91.34 5,976.40 3,742.25 2,202.68 90.30 6,035.23 3,788.23 2,217.22 89.56 6,095.01
WA Sub-Total 10,861.52 6,447.49 268.64 17,577.65 11,006.61 6,478.47 265.60 17,750.68 11,141.84 6,521.24 263.42 17,926.50
Idaho Both 3,163.71 1,834.05 148.72 5,146.49 3,202.90 1,839.15 150.20 5,192.26 3,252.29 1,850.32 151.07 5,253.68
Idaho GTN 436.37 252.97 20.51 709.86 441.78 253.68 20.72 716.17 448.59 255.22 20.84 724.65
Idaho NWP 1,854.59 1,075.13 87.18 3,016.91 1,877.56 1,078.12 88.05 3,043.74 1,906.52 1,084.67 88.56 3,079.75
ID Sub-Total 5,454.67 3,162.16 256.42 8,873.25 5,522.25 3,170.96 258.97 8,952.17 5,607.40 3,190.21 260.47 9,058.07
Case Total 21,691.27 13,004.82 621.56 35,317.65 21,952.14 13,061.09 624.06 35,637.29 22,244.33 13,153.56 623.42 36,021.32
Area
2020-2021:
Residential
2020-2021:
Commercial
2020-2021:
Ind
FirmSale
2020-2021:
Total
2021-2022:
Residential
2021-2022:
Commercial
2021-2022:
Ind
FirmSale
2021-2022:
Total
2022-2023:
Residential
2022-2023:
Commercial
2022-2023:
Ind
FirmSale
2022-2023:
TotalKlamath Falls 898.47 455.98 13.63 1,368.08 902.04 455.18 13.53 1,370.75 908.77 455.95 13.45 1,378.17
La Grande 484.99 309.50 56.72 851.21 484.36 308.84 56.45 849.66 484.92 308.92 56.14 849.99
Medford GTN 2,348.77 1,453.49 18.07 3,820.33 2,360.37 1,458.12 17.96 3,836.45 2,378.76 1,466.36 17.85 3,862.97
Medford NWP 1,055.24 653.02 8.12 1,716.38 1,060.46 655.10 8.07 1,723.62 1,068.72 658.80 8.02 1,735.54
Roseburg 730.06 571.68 2.30 1,304.03 732.98 569.56 2.28 1,304.83 738.43 569.19 2.27 1,309.89
OR Sub-Total 5,517.53 3,443.67 98.85 9,060.05 5,540.21 3,446.80 98.30 9,085.31 5,579.59 3,459.23 97.74 9,136.55
Washington Both 6,472.83 3,772.08 150.44 10,395.36 6,495.43 3,775.36 148.81 10,419.59 6,494.40 3,771.56 147.18 10,413.15
Washington GTN 892.80 520.29 20.75 1,433.84 895.92 520.74 20.53 1,437.19 895.78 520.22 20.30 1,436.30
Washington NWP 3,794.42 2,211.22 88.19 6,093.83 3,807.66 2,213.14 87.23 6,108.04 3,807.06 2,210.92 86.28 6,104.26
WA Sub-Total 11,160.06 6,503.58 259.38 17,923.03 11,199.01 6,509.23 256.57 17,964.81 11,197.24 6,502.69 253.76 17,953.70
Idaho Both 3,271.96 1,845.41 150.35 5,267.71 3,292.56 1,844.41 150.01 5,286.98 3,302.77 1,840.59 149.61 5,292.97
Idaho GTN 451.30 254.54 20.74 726.58 454.15 254.40 20.69 729.24 455.55 253.87 20.64 730.07
Idaho NWP 1,918.04 1,081.79 88.13 3,087.97 1,930.12 1,081.20 87.93 3,099.26 1,936.11 1,078.97 87.70 3,102.78
ID Sub-Total 5,641.31 3,181.74 259.22 9,082.26 5,676.83 3,180.01 258.63 9,115.48 5,694.43 3,173.44 257.95 9,125.81
Case Total 22,318.90 13,128.99 617.45 36,065.34 22,416.06 13,136.05 613.49 36,165.60 22,471.26 13,135.35 609.45 36,216.07
Area
2023-2024:
Residential
2023-2024:
Commercial
2023-2024:
Ind
FirmSale
2023-2024:
Total
2024-2025:
Residential
2024-2025:
Commercial
2024-2025:
Ind
FirmSale
2024-2025:
Total
2025-2026:
Residential
2025-2026:
Commercial
2025-2026:
Ind
FirmSale
2025-2026:
Total
Klamath Falls 920.88 459.21 13.40 1,393.49 922.26 457.51 13.25 1,393.03 929.01 458.31 13.14 1,400.46
La Grande 487.66 310.45 55.86 853.96 485.83 309.06 55.36 850.25 486.20 309.14 54.91 850.26
Medford GTN 2,406.60 1,480.55 17.78 3,904.93 2,408.13 1,480.59 17.60 3,906.33 2,422.41 1,487.61 17.46 3,927.48
Medford NWP 1,081.22 665.17 7.99 1,754.39 1,081.91 665.19 7.91 1,755.02 1,088.33 668.35 7.85 1,764.52
Roseburg 747.80 571.60 2.27 1,321.66 749.54 568.46 2.24 1,320.25 755.13 568.13 2.22 1,325.48
OR Sub-Total 5,644.16 3,486.97 97.30 9,228.43 5,647.68 3,480.82 96.37 9,224.87 5,681.09 3,491.54 95.58 9,268.21
Washington Both 6,580.84 3,783.27 146.23 10,510.33 6,538.15 3,753.07 144.09 10,435.31 6,505.01 3,741.42 142.63 10,389.06
Washington GTN 907.70 521.83 20.17 1,449.70 901.81 517.66 19.87 1,439.35 897.24 516.06 19.67 1,432.97
Washington NWP 3,857.73 2,217.78 85.72 6,161.23 3,832.71 2,200.08 84.47 6,117.25 3,813.28 2,193.25 83.61 6,090.14
WA Sub-Total 11,346.27 6,522.87 252.11 18,121.26 11,272.68 6,470.81 248.43 17,991.92 11,215.53 6,450.72 245.91 17,912.17
Idaho Both 3,358.85 1,843.07 149.84 5,351.76 3,343.19 1,826.07 148.79 5,318.06 3,331.28 1,817.74 148.43 5,297.45
Idaho GTN 463.29 254.22 20.67 738.17 461.13 251.87 20.52 733.53 459.49 250.72 20.47 730.68
Idaho NWP 1,968.98 1,080.42 87.84 3,137.24 1,959.80 1,070.46 87.22 3,117.48 1,952.82 1,065.57 87.01 3,105.40
ID Sub-Total 5,791.12 3,177.70 258.35 9,227.18 5,764.12 3,148.40 256.54 9,169.07 5,743.58 3,134.03 255.92 9,133.53
Case Total 22,781.55 13,187.55 607.77 36,576.87 22,684.48 13,100.04 601.34 36,385.85 22,640.20 13,076.29 597.41 36,313.91
Area
2026-2027:
Residential
2026-2027:
Commercial
2026-2027:
Ind
FirmSale
2026-2027:
Total
2027-2028:
Residential
2027-2028:
Commercial
2027-2028:
Ind
FirmSale
2027-2028:
Total
2028-2029:
Residential
2028-2029:
Commercial
2028-2029:
Ind
FirmSale
2028-2029:
Total
Klamath Falls 935.30 458.98 13.02 1,407.31 945.90 461.83 12.93 1,420.66 946.12 460.20 12.72 1,419.04
La Grande 486.54 309.16 54.39 850.09 488.97 310.43 53.89 853.29 487.40 309.05 53.14 849.60
Medford GTN 2,435.78 1,494.20 17.30 3,947.28 2,459.24 1,506.68 17.16 3,983.08 2,458.74 1,506.23 16.90 3,981.88
Medford NWP 1,094.34 671.31 7.77 1,773.41 1,104.87 676.91 7.71 1,789.50 1,104.65 676.71 7.59 1,788.96
Roseburg 760.66 567.71 2.20 1,330.57 769.46 569.71 2.19 1,341.35 770.93 566.57 2.15 1,339.65
OR Sub-Total 5,712.63 3,501.36 94.68 9,308.66 5,768.44 3,525.57 93.88 9,387.89 5,767.85 3,518.77 92.51 9,379.13
Washington Both 6,460.65 3,727.67 141.21 10,329.53 6,438.18 3,730.65 140.35 10,309.18 6,353.46 3,699.65 138.48 10,191.59
Washington GTN 891.12 514.16 19.48 1,424.76 888.02 514.57 19.36 1,421.96 876.34 510.30 19.10 1,405.74
Washington NWP 3,787.28 2,185.19 82.78 6,055.24 3,774.11 2,186.93 82.27 6,043.31 3,724.44 2,168.76 81.18 5,974.38
WA Sub-Total 11,139.05 6,427.02 243.46 17,809.53 11,100.31 6,432.15 241.98 17,774.44 10,954.24 6,378.71 238.75 17,571.71
Idaho Both 3,314.11 1,809.11 148.09 5,271.31 3,309.16 1,808.42 148.36 5,265.94 3,274.96 1,792.47 147.47 5,214.90
Idaho GTN 457.12 249.53 20.43 727.08 456.44 249.44 20.46 726.34 451.72 247.24 20.34 719.30
Idaho NWP 1,942.75 1,060.51 86.81 3,090.08 1,939.85 1,060.11 86.97 3,086.93 1,919.81 1,050.76 86.45 3,057.01
ID Sub-Total 5,713.98 3,119.16 255.32 9,088.46 5,705.46 3,117.97 255.79 9,079.21 5,646.49 3,090.47 254.26 8,991.22
Case Total 22,565.66 13,047.54 593.46 36,206.66 22,574.21 13,075.69 591.65 36,241.55 22,368.58 12,987.95 585.53 35,942.05
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 114
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
COLDEST IN 20 YEARS

Area
2029-2030:
Residential
2029-2030:
Commercial
2029-2030:
Ind
FirmSale
2029-2030:
Total
2030-2031:
Residential
2030-2031:
Commercial
2030-2031:
Ind
FirmSale
2030-2031:
Total
2031-2032:
Residential
2031-2032:
Commercial
2031-2032:
Ind
FirmSale
2031-2032:
Total
Klamath Falls 950.47 460.73 12.56 1,423.76 954.48 461.28 12.39 1,428.15 963.58 464.03 12.25 1,439.86
La Grande 487.71 308.95 52.48 849.14 487.84 308.83 51.75 848.42 489.92 310.03 51.06 851.00
Medford GTN 2,468.33 1,511.72 16.69 3,996.74 2,476.78 1,516.88 16.46 4,010.13 2,495.83 1,528.24 16.27 4,040.33
Medford NWP 1,108.96 679.18 7.50 1,795.64 1,112.76 681.50 7.40 1,801.65 1,121.31 686.60 7.31 1,815.22
Roseburg 775.41 565.83 2.12 1,343.36 779.06 564.84 2.09 1,346.00 785.74 566.18 2.07 1,353.99
OR Sub-Total 5,790.88 3,526.40 91.36 9,408.64 5,810.92 3,533.32 90.10 9,434.34 5,856.37 3,555.07 88.95 9,500.40
Washington Both 6,298.63 3,687.37 137.17 10,123.17 6,249.56 3,676.10 135.89 10,061.54 6,238.59 3,683.85 135.14 10,057.59
Washington GTN 868.78 508.60 18.92 1,396.30 862.01 507.05 18.74 1,387.80 860.50 508.12 18.64 1,387.25
Washington NWP 3,692.30 2,161.56 80.41 5,934.27 3,663.54 2,154.95 79.66 5,898.15 3,657.11 2,159.50 79.22 5,895.83
WA Sub-Total 10,859.71 6,357.54 236.50 17,453.74 10,775.10 6,338.09 234.29 17,347.49 10,756.20 6,351.47 233.00 17,340.67
Idaho Both 3,257.34 1,785.49 147.20 5,190.03 3,245.23 1,779.60 146.95 5,171.79 3,255.23 1,783.02 147.32 5,185.57
Idaho GTN 449.29 246.27 20.30 715.87 447.62 245.46 20.27 713.35 449.00 245.93 20.32 715.25
Idaho NWP 1,909.47 1,046.67 86.29 3,042.43 1,902.38 1,043.21 86.15 3,031.74 1,908.24 1,045.22 86.36 3,039.82
ID Sub-Total 5,616.10 3,078.43 253.80 8,948.33 5,595.23 3,068.27 253.37 8,916.87 5,612.47 3,074.17 253.99 8,940.64
Case Total 22,266.69 12,962.37 581.65 35,810.71 22,181.25 12,939.69 577.76 35,698.70 22,225.04 12,980.72 575.95 35,781.71
Area
2032-2033:
Residential
2032-2033:
Commercial
2032-2033:
Ind
FirmSale
2032-2033:
Total
2033-2034:
Residential
2033-2034:
Commercial
2033-2034:
Ind
FirmSale
2033-2034:
Total
2034-2035:
Residential
2034-2035:
Commercial
2034-2035:
Ind
FirmSale
2034-2035:
Total
Klamath Falls 962.62 462.23 12.00 1,436.85 966.73 462.63 11.78 1,441.14 970.81 463.02 11.56 1,445.39
La Grande 487.74 308.53 50.11 846.37 487.51 308.33 49.21 845.05 487.22 308.18 48.28 843.68
Medford GTN 2,490.55 1,526.20 15.94 4,032.70 2,496.23 1,530.45 15.66 4,042.33 2,501.29 1,534.50 15.37 4,051.16
Medford NWP 1,118.94 685.69 7.16 1,811.79 1,121.49 687.59 7.04 1,816.12 1,123.77 689.41 6.90 1,820.08
Roseburg 784.95 562.39 2.03 1,349.36 787.61 561.05 1.99 1,350.66 790.17 559.72 1.95 1,351.85
OR Sub-Total 5,844.79 3,545.03 87.24 9,477.06 5,859.57 3,550.05 85.68 9,495.31 5,873.25 3,554.84 84.07 9,512.16 Washington Both 6,175.35 3,659.08 133.40 9,967.82 6,148.66 3,656.15 132.18 9,937.00 6,130.28 3,656.38 130.98 9,917.64
Washington GTN 851.77 504.70 18.40 1,374.87 848.09 504.30 18.23 1,370.62 845.56 504.33 18.07 1,367.95
Washington NWP 3,620.03 2,144.98 78.20 5,843.21 3,604.39 2,143.26 77.49 5,825.14 3,593.61 2,143.39 76.78 5,813.79
WA Sub-Total 10,647.15 6,308.76 229.99 17,185.90 10,601.14 6,303.71 227.90 17,132.75 10,569.45 6,304.10 225.83 17,099.38
Idaho Both 3,241.26 1,772.05 146.52 5,159.83 3,248.42 1,771.81 146.33 5,166.56 3,261.75 1,773.29 146.14 5,181.18
Idaho GTN 447.07 244.42 20.21 711.70 448.06 244.39 20.18 712.63 449.90 244.59 20.16 714.65
Idaho NWP 1,900.05 1,038.79 85.89 3,024.73 1,904.25 1,038.65 85.78 3,028.67 1,912.06 1,039.51 85.67 3,037.24
ID Sub-Total 5,588.38 3,055.25 252.62 8,896.25 5,600.73 3,054.84 252.29 8,907.86 5,623.71 3,057.39 251.97 8,933.07
Case Total 22,080.32 12,909.04 569.85 35,559.21 22,061.44 12,908.61 565.87 35,535.92 22,066.41 12,916.33 561.87 35,544.61
Area
2035-2036:
Residential
2035-2036:
Commercial
2035-2036:
Ind
FirmSale
2035-2036:
Total
2036-2037:
Residential
2036-2037:
Commercial
2036-2037:
Ind
FirmSale
2036-2037:
Total
Klamath Falls 980.21 465.79 11.38 1,457.38 979.29 463.88 11.11 1,454.28
La Grande 488.98 309.36 47.42 845.75 486.55 307.72 46.39 840.65
Medford GTN 2,518.14 1,545.09 15.12 4,078.35 2,511.07 1,542.25 14.77 4,068.09
Medford NWP 1,131.34 694.17 6.79 1,832.30 1,128.16 692.90 6.64 1,827.69
Roseburg 796.47 560.91 1.93 1,359.31 795.41 556.96 1.88 1,354.25
OR Sub-Total 5,915.14 3,575.33 82.63 9,573.09 5,900.48 3,563.70 80.78 9,544.95
Washington Both 6,150.20 3,677.29 130.28 9,957.77 6,113.02 3,665.14 128.60 9,906.76
Washington GTN 848.30 507.21 17.97 1,373.49 843.18 505.54 17.74 1,366.45
Washington NWP 3,605.29 2,155.65 76.37 5,837.31 3,583.49 2,148.53 75.39 5,807.41
WA Sub-Total 10,603.80 6,340.15 224.63 17,168.57 10,539.69 6,319.20 221.73 17,080.63
Idaho Both 3,296.46 1,784.49 146.56 5,227.51 3,302.97 1,780.81 145.80 5,229.58
Idaho GTN 454.68 246.14 20.22 721.04 455.58 245.63 20.11 721.32
Idaho NWP 1,932.41 1,046.08 85.91 3,064.40 1,936.23 1,043.92 85.47 3,065.62
ID Sub-Total 5,683.55 3,076.70 252.69 9,012.94 5,694.78 3,070.36 251.38 9,016.52
Case Total 22,202.49 12,992.17 559.94 35,754.61 22,134.95 12,953.27 553.89 35,642.10
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 115
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
80% BELOW 1990 LEVELS

Area
2017-2018:
Residential
2017-2018:
Commercial
2017-2018:
Ind
FirmSale
2017-2018:
Total
2018-2019:
Residential
2018-2019:
Commercial
2018-2019:
Ind
FirmSale
2018-2019:
Total
2019-2020:
Residential
2019-2020:
Commercial
2019-2020:
Ind
FirmSale
2019-2020:
Total
Klamath Falls 852.74 441.03 13.66 1,307.43 829.40 425.59 13.01 1,268.00 806.59 411.64 12.39 1,230.62
La Grande 473.57 303.53 52.43 829.53 457.61 292.80 54.44 804.85 441.92 282.34 53.03 777.29
Medford GTN 2,244.22 1,397.27 18.15 3,659.64 2,183.42 1,356.03 17.27 3,556.72 2,123.66 1,314.67 16.43 3,454.76
Medford NWP 1,008.27 627.76 8.15 1,644.19 980.96 609.23 7.76 1,597.95 954.11 590.65 7.38 1,552.14
Roseburg 701.81 561.70 2.31 1,265.82 682.03 541.68 2.20 1,225.92 662.52 521.72 2.10 1,186.35
OR Sub-Total 5,280.60 3,331.30 94.70 8,706.60 5,133.43 3,225.33 94.68 8,453.44 4,988.81 3,121.02 91.33 8,201.15
Washington Both 6,162.85 3,658.08 152.26 9,973.19 6,002.06 3,532.77 144.70 9,679.53 5,820.95 3,407.21 137.52 9,365.67
Washington GTN 850.05 504.56 21.00 1,375.61 827.87 487.28 19.96 1,335.11 802.89 469.96 18.97 1,291.82
Washington NWP 3,612.71 2,144.39 89.26 5,846.35 3,518.45 2,070.93 84.83 5,674.21 3,412.28 1,997.33 80.61 5,490.22
WA Sub-Total 10,625.61 6,307.03 262.52 17,195.16 10,348.37 6,090.98 249.49 16,688.85 10,036.12 5,874.50 237.10 16,147.71
Idaho Both 3,173.24 1,838.79 149.00 5,161.03 3,212.59 1,843.92 150.48 5,206.99 3,262.14 1,855.12 151.35 5,268.61
Idaho GTN 437.69 253.63 20.55 711.87 443.12 254.33 20.76 718.21 449.95 255.88 20.88 726.70
Idaho NWP 1,860.17 1,077.91 87.35 3,025.43 1,883.24 1,080.92 88.21 3,052.38 1,912.29 1,087.48 88.72 3,088.49
ID Sub-Total 5,471.10 3,170.33 256.90 8,898.33 5,538.95 3,179.18 259.45 8,977.58 5,624.37 3,198.48 260.95 9,083.80
Case Total 21,377.32 12,808.66 614.12 34,800.09 21,020.74 12,495.49 603.62 34,119.86 20,649.30 12,193.99 589.38 33,432.67
Area
2020-2021:
Residential
2020-2021:
Commercial
2020-2021:
Ind
FirmSale
2020-2021:
Total
2021-2022:
Residential
2021-2022:
Commercial
2021-2022:
Ind
FirmSale
2021-2022:
Total
2022-2023:
Residential
2022-2023:
Commercial
2022-2023:
Ind
FirmSale
2022-2023:
TotalKlamath Falls 782.59 397.15 11.83 1,191.57 755.41 381.11 11.27 1,147.79 731.68 366.92 10.74 1,109.34
La Grande 426.60 272.09 51.43 750.12 409.64 261.02 49.54 720.21 394.22 250.91 47.68 692.81
Medford GTN 2,063.06 1,274.05 15.71 3,352.82 1,993.44 1,228.72 14.98 3,237.14 1,931.43 1,187.50 14.28 3,133.22
Medford NWP 926.88 572.40 7.06 1,506.34 895.61 552.03 6.73 1,454.37 867.75 533.51 6.42 1,407.68
Roseburg 643.04 502.29 2.00 1,147.33 620.75 481.09 1.91 1,103.75 601.24 462.09 1.82 1,065.15
OR Sub-Total 4,842.16 3,017.99 88.02 7,948.18 4,674.85 2,903.98 84.44 7,663.26 4,526.32 2,800.93 80.94 7,408.19
Washington Both 5,625.95 3,279.74 130.75 9,036.45 5,419.39 3,153.19 124.34 8,696.92 5,192.55 3,022.57 118.19 8,333.30
Washington GTN 775.99 452.38 18.03 1,246.41 747.50 434.92 17.15 1,199.58 716.21 416.91 16.30 1,149.42
Washington NWP 3,297.97 1,922.61 76.65 5,297.23 3,176.88 1,848.42 72.89 5,098.20 3,043.91 1,771.85 69.28 4,885.04
WA Sub-Total 9,699.92 5,654.73 225.44 15,580.08 9,343.77 5,436.54 214.38 14,994.69 8,952.67 5,211.33 203.77 14,367.76
Idaho Both 3,281.97 1,850.24 150.63 5,282.84 3,305.69 1,850.52 150.34 5,306.56 3,319.19 1,848.04 150.01 5,317.23
Idaho GTN 452.69 255.21 20.78 728.67 455.96 255.24 20.74 731.94 457.82 254.90 20.69 733.41
Idaho NWP 1,923.91 1,084.62 88.30 3,096.83 1,937.82 1,084.79 88.13 3,110.74 1,945.73 1,083.33 87.93 3,117.00
ID Sub-Total 5,658.57 3,190.06 259.70 9,108.34 5,699.47 3,190.56 259.21 9,149.24 5,722.73 3,186.28 258.63 9,167.64
Case Total 20,200.65 11,862.78 573.17 32,636.60 19,718.09 11,531.08 558.03 31,807.20 19,201.73 11,198.53 543.34 30,943.60
Area
2023-2024:
Residential
2023-2024:
Commercial
2023-2024:
Ind
FirmSale
2023-2024:
Total
2024-2025:
Residential
2024-2025:
Commercial
2024-2025:
Ind
FirmSale
2024-2025:
Total
2025-2026:
Residential
2025-2026:
Commercial
2025-2026:
Ind
FirmSale
2025-2026:
Total
Klamath Falls 708.55 353.08 10.21 1,071.83 683.54 338.76 9.69 1,031.99 659.25 324.80 9.17 993.21
La Grande 378.87 240.92 45.74 665.52 363.60 230.98 44.08 638.66 348.40 221.15 42.35 611.90
Medford GTN 1,867.51 1,145.63 13.56 3,026.70 1,800.29 1,103.36 12.89 2,916.54 1,734.13 1,061.22 12.19 2,807.55
Medford NWP 839.03 514.70 6.09 1,359.82 808.82 495.71 5.79 1,310.33 779.10 476.78 5.48 1,261.36
Roseburg 581.88 443.39 1.73 1,027.00 561.88 424.68 1.64 988.20 542.04 406.27 1.55 949.86
OR Sub-Total 4,375.83 2,697.72 77.33 7,150.88 4,218.13 2,593.49 74.10 6,885.72 4,062.92 2,490.23 70.74 6,623.89
Washington Both 5,017.65 2,888.63 112.19 8,018.46 4,772.84 2,747.85 106.41 7,627.10 4,506.78 2,609.20 100.85 7,216.83
Washington GTN 692.09 398.43 15.47 1,105.99 658.32 379.01 14.68 1,052.01 621.62 359.89 13.91 995.42
Washington NWP 2,941.38 1,693.33 65.77 4,700.48 2,797.87 1,610.81 62.38 4,471.06 2,641.90 1,529.53 59.12 4,230.55
WA Sub-Total 8,651.11 4,980.39 193.43 13,824.94 8,229.03 4,737.68 183.47 13,150.17 7,770.30 4,498.62 173.88 12,442.81
Idaho Both 3,375.56 1,850.57 150.24 5,376.37 3,360.92 1,833.95 149.20 5,344.07 3,349.27 1,825.66 148.84 5,323.77
Idaho GTN 465.59 255.25 20.72 741.57 463.58 252.96 20.58 737.11 461.97 251.81 20.53 734.31
Idaho NWP 1,978.78 1,084.82 88.07 3,151.67 1,970.20 1,075.07 87.46 3,132.73 1,963.37 1,070.21 87.25 3,120.83
ID Sub-Total 5,819.93 3,190.64 259.03 9,269.60 5,794.70 3,161.98 257.25 9,213.92 5,774.61 3,147.68 256.62 9,178.91
Case Total 18,846.87 10,868.76 529.79 30,245.42 18,241.86 10,493.14 514.82 29,249.82 17,607.83 10,136.53 501.24 28,245.60
Area
2026-2027:
Residential
2026-2027:
Commercial
2026-2027:
Ind
FirmSale
2026-2027:
Total
2027-2028:
Residential
2027-2028:
Commercial
2027-2028:
Ind
FirmSale
2027-2028:
Total
2028-2029:
Residential
2028-2029:
Commercial
2028-2029:
Ind
FirmSale
2028-2029:
Total
Klamath Falls 634.46 310.83 8.64 953.92 609.57 297.00 8.09 914.66 583.33 283.04 7.55 873.91
La Grande 333.27 211.35 40.64 585.27 318.16 201.53 38.86 558.55 303.42 191.90 37.33 532.65
Medford GTN 1,667.11 1,018.74 11.49 2,697.34 1,599.25 975.66 10.75 2,585.66 1,530.12 933.11 10.04 2,473.27
Medford NWP 748.99 457.69 5.16 1,211.85 718.50 438.34 4.83 1,161.67 687.45 419.23 4.51 1,111.18
Roseburg 522.00 387.96 1.46 911.43 501.69 369.71 1.37 872.78 481.02 351.68 1.28 833.97
OR Sub-Total 3,905.84 2,386.57 67.39 6,359.80 3,747.17 2,282.24 63.90 6,093.32 3,585.32 2,178.95 60.71 5,824.99
Washington Both 4,230.09 2,469.85 95.49 6,795.43 3,946.37 2,331.89 90.28 6,368.55 3,660.16 2,194.80 85.36 5,940.31
Washington GTN 583.46 340.67 13.17 937.30 544.33 321.64 12.45 878.42 504.85 302.73 11.77 819.35
Washington NWP 2,479.71 1,447.84 55.98 3,983.53 2,313.39 1,366.97 52.93 3,733.29 2,145.61 1,286.61 50.04 3,482.25
WA Sub-Total 7,293.25 4,258.36 164.64 11,716.25 6,804.09 4,020.50 155.66 10,980.25 6,310.62 3,784.13 147.16 10,241.92
Idaho Both 3,332.36 1,817.08 148.50 5,297.93 3,327.71 1,816.45 148.77 5,292.93 3,293.73 1,800.54 147.88 5,242.15
Idaho GTN 459.64 250.63 20.48 730.75 458.99 250.55 20.52 730.06 454.31 248.35 20.40 723.06
Idaho NWP 1,953.45 1,065.18 87.05 3,105.69 1,950.73 1,064.82 87.21 3,102.75 1,930.81 1,055.49 86.69 3,072.98
ID Sub-Total 5,745.45 3,132.89 256.03 9,134.37 5,737.43 3,131.82 256.49 9,125.74 5,678.85 3,104.37 254.96 9,038.19
Case Total 16,944.54 9,777.82 488.05 27,210.42 16,288.68 9,434.56 476.06 26,199.30 15,574.79 9,067.46 462.84 25,105.09
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 116
APPENDIX - CHAPTER 2

APPENDIX 2.9: DETAILED DEMAND DATA
80% BELOW 1990 LEVELS

Area
2029-2030:
Residential
2029-2030:
Commercial
2029-2030:
Ind
FirmSale
2029-2030:
Total
2030-2031:
Residential
2030-2031:
Commercial
2030-2031:
Ind
FirmSale
2030-2031:
Total
2031-2032:
Residential
2031-2032:
Commercial
2031-2032:
Ind
FirmSale
2031-2032:
Total
Klamath Falls 557.05 269.25 7.00 833.31 530.62 255.60 6.46 792.68 504.62 242.10 5.89 752.61
La Grande 288.57 182.30 35.73 506.60 273.75 172.79 34.16 480.70 258.88 163.31 32.54 454.73
Medford GTN 1,460.53 890.20 9.32 2,360.05 1,390.50 847.28 8.59 2,246.38 1,320.24 804.08 7.84 2,132.15
Medford NWP 656.18 399.94 4.19 1,060.31 624.72 380.66 3.86 1,009.24 593.15 361.25 3.52 957.92
Roseburg 460.01 333.74 1.19 794.94 438.50 315.88 1.10 755.48 416.68 298.08 1.00 715.77
OR Sub-Total 3,422.33 2,075.44 57.43 5,555.20 3,258.08 1,972.23 54.17 5,284.48 3,093.57 1,868.82 50.80 5,013.18
Washington Both 3,375.09 2,061.09 80.56 5,516.74 3,237.53 1,929.82 75.94 5,243.29 2,840.23 1,801.64 71.43 4,713.30
Washington GTN 465.53 284.29 11.11 760.93 446.56 266.18 10.47 723.21 391.76 248.50 9.85 650.11
Washington NWP 1,978.50 1,208.22 47.23 3,233.95 1,897.86 1,131.27 44.52 3,073.65 1,664.96 1,056.13 41.88 2,762.97
WA Sub-Total 5,819.13 3,553.60 138.90 9,511.63 5,581.95 3,327.27 130.93 9,040.16 4,896.95 3,106.27 123.16 8,126.39
Idaho Both 3,276.37 1,793.60 147.61 5,217.58 3,264.53 1,787.76 147.36 5,199.66 3,274.84 1,791.24 147.73 5,213.81
Idaho GTN 451.91 247.39 20.36 719.67 450.28 246.59 20.33 717.19 451.70 247.07 20.38 719.15
Idaho NWP 1,920.63 1,051.42 86.53 3,058.58 1,913.69 1,048.00 86.39 3,048.07 1,919.73 1,050.04 86.60 3,056.37
ID Sub-Total 5,648.92 3,092.41 254.50 8,995.83 5,628.51 3,082.34 254.08 8,964.93 5,646.28 3,088.35 254.70 8,989.33
Case Total 14,890.38 8,721.45 450.83 24,062.67 14,468.54 8,381.84 439.18 23,289.56 13,636.80 8,063.43 428.66 22,128.89
Area
2032-2033:
Residential
2032-2033:
Commercial
2032-2033:
Ind
FirmSale
2032-2033:
Total
2033-2034:
Residential
2033-2034:
Commercial
2033-2034:
Ind
FirmSale
2033-2034:
Total
2034-2035:
Residential
2034-2035:
Commercial
2034-2035:
Ind
FirmSale
2034-2035:
Total
Klamath Falls 477.85 228.47 5.33 711.65 451.44 214.95 4.76 671.15 424.97 201.48 4.19 630.64
La Grande 244.22 153.98 31.12 429.32 229.50 144.64 29.64 403.78 214.84 135.38 28.19 378.41
Medford GTN 1,249.22 761.24 7.10 2,017.56 1,178.14 718.07 6.35 1,902.56 1,106.93 674.85 5.59 1,787.38
Medford NWP 561.24 342.00 3.19 906.44 529.31 322.61 2.85 854.77 497.32 303.20 2.51 803.02
Roseburg 394.71 280.48 0.91 676.09 372.66 262.96 0.81 636.43 350.57 245.60 0.71 596.89
OR Sub-Total 2,927.24 1,766.16 47.66 4,741.06 2,761.06 1,663.22 44.42 4,468.70 2,594.63 1,560.51 41.20 4,196.34 Washington Both 2,578.68 1,676.60 67.15 4,322.43 2,324.20 1,557.52 62.96 3,944.69 2,078.22 1,442.66 58.91 3,579.79
Washington GTN 355.68 231.26 9.26 596.20 320.58 214.83 8.68 544.10 286.65 198.99 8.13 493.76
Washington NWP 1,511.64 982.84 39.36 2,533.84 1,362.46 913.03 36.91 2,312.40 1,218.27 845.70 34.53 2,098.50
WA Sub-Total 4,446.00 2,890.69 115.77 7,452.47 4,007.25 2,685.38 108.56 6,801.19 3,583.14 2,487.35 101.56 6,172.05
Idaho Both 3,261.12 1,780.30 146.93 5,188.35 3,268.56 1,780.12 146.74 5,195.41 3,282.18 1,781.64 146.55 5,210.38
Idaho GTN 449.81 245.56 20.27 715.63 450.84 245.53 20.24 716.61 452.71 245.74 20.21 718.67
Idaho NWP 1,911.69 1,043.63 86.13 3,041.44 1,916.05 1,043.52 86.02 3,045.59 1,924.04 1,044.41 85.91 3,054.36
ID Sub-Total 5,622.61 3,069.49 253.32 8,945.43 5,635.45 3,069.17 252.99 8,957.61 5,658.93 3,071.80 252.68 8,983.41
Case Total 12,995.86 7,726.34 416.75 21,138.95 12,403.76 7,417.77 405.97 20,227.50 11,836.69 7,119.66 395.44 19,351.80
Area
2035-2036:
Residential
2035-2036:
Commercial
2035-2036:
Ind
FirmSale
2035-2036:
Total
2036-2037:
Residential
2036-2037:
Commercial
2036-2037:
Ind
FirmSale
2036-2037:
Total
Klamath Falls 398.81 188.13 3.61 590.55 372.02 174.65 3.06 549.73
La Grande 200.15 126.11 26.68 352.95 185.74 116.91 25.34 327.99
Medford GTN 1,035.86 631.31 4.82 1,672.00 964.76 588.17 4.09 1,557.02
Medford NWP 465.39 283.63 2.17 751.19 433.44 264.25 1.84 699.53
Roseburg 328.47 228.32 0.62 557.41 306.41 211.20 0.52 518.13
OR Sub-Total 2,428.68 1,457.51 37.90 3,924.09 2,262.38 1,355.18 34.84 3,652.40
Washington Both 1,988.12 1,331.66 54.93 3,374.72 1,250.54 1,223.77 51.13 2,525.44
Washington GTN 274.22 183.68 7.58 465.48 172.49 168.80 7.05 348.34
Washington NWP 1,165.45 780.63 32.20 1,978.29 733.08 717.38 29.97 1,480.43
WA Sub-Total 3,427.80 2,295.97 94.72 5,818.49 2,156.10 2,109.95 88.16 4,354.21
Idaho Both 3,317.22 1,792.91 146.97 5,257.10 3,323.99 1,789.27 146.21 5,259.47
Idaho GTN 457.55 247.30 20.27 725.12 458.48 246.80 20.17 725.44
Idaho NWP 1,944.58 1,051.02 86.15 3,081.75 1,948.55 1,048.88 85.71 3,083.14
ID Sub-Total 5,719.34 3,091.23 253.40 9,063.96 5,731.03 3,084.95 252.09 9,068.06
Case Total 11,575.82 6,844.71 386.01 18,806.54 10,149.50 6,550.08 375.08 17,074.67
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 117

Energy Solutions. Delivered.

This work was performed by
Applied Energy Group, Inc.
211 Broad Street, Suite 206
Red Bank, NJ 07701
Executive-in-Charge: I. Rohmund
Report prepared for:
AVISTA UTILITIES

2018 AVISTA UTILITIES NATURAL GAS
CONSERVATION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT
Volume 1, Final Report
August 7, 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 118

This work was performed by:
Applied Energy Group, Inc.
500 Ygnacio Valley Road, Suite 250
Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Project Director: I. Rohmund
Project Manager: K. Kolnowski
Lead Analyst:F. Nguyen
AEG would also like to acknowledge the valuable contributions of
Avista Utilities
1411 E Mission MSC-15
Spokane, WA 99220
Project Team:Amber Gifford
Ryan Finesilver
Tom Pardee
Kaylene Schultz
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 119
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 120

| i Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In the winter of 2017, Avista Utilities (Avista) contracted with Applied Energy Group (AEG) to conduct this
Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA) in support of their conservation and resource planning activities.
This report documents this effort and provides estimates of the potential reductions in annual energy
usage for natural gas customers in Avista’s Washington and Idaho service territories from energy
conservation efforts in the time period of 2018 to 2038. To produce a reliable and transparent estimate of
energy efficiency (EE) resource potential, the AEG team performed the following tasks to meet Avista’s key
objectives:
 Used information and data from Avista, as well as secondary data sources, to describe how customers
currently use gas by sector, segment, end use and technology.
 Developed a baseline projection of how customers are likely to use gas in absence of future EE
programs. This defines the metric against which future program savings are measured. This projection
used up-to-date technology data, modeling assumptions, and energy baselines that reflect both
current and anticipated federal, state, and local energy efficiency legislation that will impact energy
EE potential.
 Estimated the technical, achievable technical, and achievable economic potential at the measure level
for energy efficiency within Avista’s service territory over the 2018 to 2038 planning horizon.
 Delivered a fully configured end-use conservation planning model, LoadMAP, for Avista to use in
future potential and resource planning initiatives
In summary, the potential study provided a solid foundation for the development of Avista’s energy
savings targets.
Table ES-1 summarizes the results for Avista’s Washington territory at a high level. AEG analyzed potential
for the residential, commercial, and industrial market sectors. First-year utility cost test (UCT) achievable
economic potential in Washington is 61,279 dekatherms. This increases to a cumulative total of 133,576
dekatherms in the second year and 1,916,441 dekatherms by the eleventh year.
Table ES-1 Washington Conservation Potential by Case, Selected Years (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Projection (Dth) 17,221,900 17,418,177 17,878,550 18,517,630 19,498,948
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 61,279 133,576 500,422 1,916,441 4,139,016
Achievable Technical Potential 86,389 186,065 655,389 2,405,890 4,901,043
Technical Potential 217,202 434,037 1,189,331 3,251,362 5,804,041
Cumulative Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.4% 0.8% 2.8% 10.3% 21.2%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.5% 1.1% 3.7% 13.0% 25.1%
Technical Potential 1.3% 2.5% 6.7% 17.6% 29.8%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 121

| ii Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com

Table ES-2 summarizes the results for Avista’s Idaho territory at a high level. First-year utility cost test
(UCT) achievable economic potential in Idaho is 26,340 dekatherms. This increases to a cumulative total
of 58,352 dekatherms in the second year and 965,825 dekatherms by the eleventh year.
Table ES-2 Idaho Conservation Potential by Case, Selected Years (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Projection (Dth) 8,557,178 8,667,149 8,958,733 9,352,011 9,975,077
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 26,340 58,352 235,414 965,825 2,107,684
Achievable Technical Potential 37,324 81,526 310,222 1,218,944 2,514,049
Technical Potential 103,071 206,214 582,638 1,660,809 2,993,151
Cumulative Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.3% 0.7% 2.6% 10.3% 21.1%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.4% 0.9% 3.5% 13.0% 25.2%
Technical Potential 1.2% 2.4% 6.5% 17.8% 30.0%
As part of this study, we also estimated total resource cost (TRC) potential, with the focus of fully balancing
non-energy impacts. This includes the use of full measure costs as well as quantified and monetizable
non-energy impacts and non-gas fuel impacts (e.g. electric cooling or wood secondary heating) consistent
with methodology within the Seventh Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan (Seventh Plan). We
explore this potential in more detail throughout the report.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 122

| iii Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
CONTENTS
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i
1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1
Goals of the Conservation Potential Assessment .................................................................. 1
Summary of Report Contents .................................................................................................. 2
Abbreviations and Acronyms .................................................................................................. 4
2 ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT .............................................. 5
Overview of Analysis Approach .............................................................................................. 5
Comparison with Northwest Power & Conservation Council Methodology .......... 5
LoadMAP Model .......................................................................................................... 6
Definitions of Potential ................................................................................................ 7
Market Characterization............................................................................................. 9
Baseline Projection .................................................................................................... 10
Energy Efficiency Measure Development ............................................................... 11
Calculation of Energy Conservation Potential ....................................................... 14
Data Development ................................................................................................................ 16
Data Sources.............................................................................................................. 16
Application of Data to the Analysis ......................................................................... 19
3 MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES ...................................... 25
Overall Energy Use Summary ................................................................................................. 25
Residential Sector ................................................................................................................... 27
Washington Characterization .................................................................................. 27
Idaho Characterization ............................................................................................ 29
Commercial Sector ................................................................................................................ 32
Washington Characterization .................................................................................. 32
Idaho Characterization ............................................................................................ 35
Industrial Sector ...................................................................................................................... 38
Washington Characterization .................................................................................. 38
Idaho Characterization ............................................................................................ 39
4 BASELINE PROJECTION ................................................................................. 41
Overall Baseline Projection .................................................................................................... 42
Washington Projection .............................................................................................. 42
Idaho Projection ........................................................................................................ 43
Residential Sector ................................................................................................................... 44
Washington Projection .............................................................................................. 44
Idaho Projection ........................................................................................................ 45
Commercial Sector ................................................................................................................ 46
Washington Projection .............................................................................................. 46
Idaho Projection ........................................................................................................ 47
Industrial Sector ...................................................................................................................... 48
Washington Projection .............................................................................................. 48
Idaho Projection ........................................................................................................ 49
5 OVERALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL ...................................................... 50
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 123

| iv Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com

Overall Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................................... 50
Washington Potential ................................................................................................ 50
Idaho Potential .......................................................................................................... 54
6 SECTOR-LEVEL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL ............................................... 57
Residential Sector ................................................................................................................... 57
Washington Potential ................................................................................................ 57
Idaho Potential .......................................................................................................... 60
Commercial Sector ................................................................................................................ 63
Washington Potential ................................................................................................ 63
Idaho Potential .......................................................................................................... 66
Industrial Sector ...................................................................................................................... 69
Washington Potential ................................................................................................ 69
Idaho Potential .......................................................................................................... 72
Incorporating the Total Resource Cost Test ......................................................................... 75
7 COMPARISON WITH CURRENT PROGRAMS ...................................................... 76
Washington Comparison with 2017 Programs and 2018 Plan ............................................ 76
Residential Sector ...................................................................................................... 76
Commercial and Industrial Sectors .......................................................................... 77
Idaho Comparison with 2017 Programs and 2018 Plan ...................................................... 78
Residential Sector ...................................................................................................... 78
Commercial and Industrial Sectors .......................................................................... 79
8 COMPARISON WITH CURRENT PROGRAMS ...................................................... 80
Residential Comparison with 2016 CPA ................................................................................ 80
Nonresidential Comparison with 2016 CPA .......................................................................... 81

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 124

| v Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1 Avista’s Service Territory (courtesy Avista) ................................................................... 2
Figure 2-1 LoadMAP Analysis Framework ....................................................................................... 7
Figure 2-2 Approach for ECM Assessment ................................................................................... 12
Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Natural Gas Use in Base Year 2015, Washington (annual therms, percent)
....................................................................................................................................... 25
Figure 3-2 Sector-Level Natural Gas Use in Base Year 2015, Idaho (annual therms, percent)26
Figure 3-3 Residential Natural Gas Use by Segment, Washington, 2015 ................................... 27
Figure 3-4 Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use, Washington, 2015..................................... 28
Figure 3-5 Residential Energy Intensity by End Use and Segment, Washington, 2015 (Annual
Therms/HH) .................................................................................................................... 28
Figure 3-6 Residential Natural Gas Use by Segment, Idaho, 2015 ............................................. 30
Figure 3-7 Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use, Idaho, 2015 ............................................... 30
Figure 3-8 Residential Energy Intensity by End Use and Segment, Idaho, 2015 (Annual
Therms/HH) .................................................................................................................... 31
Figure 3-9 Commercial Natural Gas Use by Segment, Washington, 2015 ................................ 33
Figure 3-10 Commercial Sector Natural Gas Use by End Use, Washington, 2015 ...................... 33
Figure 3-11 Commercial Energy Usage Intensity by End Use and Segment, Washington, 2015
(Annual Therms/Sq. Ft) ................................................................................................. 34
Figure 3-12 Commercial Natural Gas Use by Segment, Idaho, 2015 .......................................... 36
Figure 3-13 Commercial Sector Natural Gas Use by End Use, Idaho, 2015 ................................ 36
Figure 3-14 Commercial Energy Usage Intensity by End Use and Segment, Idaho, 2015 (Annual
Therms/Sq. Ft) ................................................................................................................ 37
Figure 3-15 Industrial Natural Gas Use by End Use, Washington, 2015 ........................................ 38
Figure 3-16 Industrial Natural Gas Use by End Use, Idaho, 2015 .................................................. 40
Figure 4-1 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Washington (dekatherms) ....................... 42
Figure 4-2 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Idaho (dekatherms) ................................. 43
Figure 4-3 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms) .................. 44
Figure 4-4 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms) ............................ 45
Figure 4-5 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms) ............... 46
Figure 4-6 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms) ......................... 47
Figure 4-7 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms) ..................... 48
Figure 4-8 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms) ............................... 49
Figure 5-1 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential as % of Baseline Projection, Washington
(dekatherms) ................................................................................................................. 52
Figure 5-2 Baseline Projection and Energy Efficiency Forecasts, Washington (dekatherms) . 52
Figure 5-3 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Washington (% of Total)
....................................................................................................................................... 53
Figure 5-4 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential as % of Baseline Projection, Idaho
(dekatherms) ................................................................................................................. 55
Figure 5-5 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential as % of Baseline Projection, Idaho
(dekatherms) ................................................................................................................. 55
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 125

| vi Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com

Figure 5-6 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Idaho (% of Total) ... 56
Figure 6-1 Residential Energy Conservation by Case, Washington (dekatherms) ................... 57
Figure 6-2 Residential UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Washington (dekatherms, % of total) ......................................................................... 58
Figure 6-3 Residential Energy Conservation by Case, Idaho (dekatherms) ............................. 60
Figure 6-4 Residential UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Idaho (dekatherms, % of total) ................................................................................... 61
Figure 6-5 Commercial Energy Conservation by Case, Washington (dekatherms) ................ 63
Figure 6-6 Commercial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Washington (dekatherms, % of total) ......................................................................... 64
Figure 6-7 Commercial Energy Conservation by Case, Idaho (dekatherms) ........................... 66
Figure 6-8 Commercial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Idaho (dekatherms, % of total) ................................................................................... 67
Figure 6-9 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential, Washington (dekatherms) ..................... 69
Figure 6-10 Industrial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Washington (dekatherms, % of total) ......................................................................... 70
Figure 6-11 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential, Idaho (dekatherms) ............................... 72
Figure 6-12 Industrial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Idaho (dekatherms, % of total) ................................................................................... 73

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 126

| vii Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.co
LIST OF TABLES
Table ES-1 Washington Conservation Potential by Case, Selected Years (dekatherms) ........... i
Table ES-2 Idaho Conservation Potential by Case, Selected Years (dekatherms) ..................... ii
Table 1-1 Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms .............................................................. 4
Table 2-1 Overview of Avista Analysis Segmentation Scheme ................................................... 9
Table 2-2 Example Equipment Measures for Direct Fuel Furnace – Single-Family Home,
Washington ................................................................................................................... 13
Table 2-3 Example Non-Equipment Measures – Existing Single Family Home, Washington ... 14
Table 2-4 Number of Measures Evaluated .................................................................................. 14
Table 2-5 Data Applied for the Market Profiles .......................................................................... 20
Table 2-6 Data Applied for the Baseline Projection in LoadMAP ............................................. 21
Table 2-7 Residential Natural Gas Equipment Federal Standards ............................................ 22
Table 2-8 Commercial and Industrial Natural Gas Equipment Standards ............................... 22
Table 2-9 Data Inputs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP ....................................... 23
Table 3-1 Avista Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015 ......................................................... 25
Table 3-2 Avista Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015 ................................................................... 26
Table 3-3 Residential Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015 ................................................ 27
Table 3-4 Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015 .......................................... 29
Table 3-5 Residential Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015 .......................................................... 29
Table 3-6 Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015 .......................................... 31
Table 3-7 Commercial Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015 .............................................. 32
Table 3-8 Average Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, Washington, 2015 ................. 34
Table 3-9 Commercial Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015 ........................................................ 35
Table 3-10 Average Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, Idaho, 2015 ............................ 37
Table 3-11 Industrial Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015 .................................................... 38
Table 3-12 Average Natural Gas Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, Washington, 2015 .. 39
Table 3-13 Industrial Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015 .............................................................. 39
Table 3-14 Average Natural Gas Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, Washington, 2015 .. 40
Table 4-1 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Washington, Selected Years (dekatherms)
....................................................................................................................................... 42
Table 4-2 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Idaho, Selected Years (dekatherms) ..... 43
Table 4-3 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms) .................. 44
Table 4-4 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms) ............................ 45
Table 4-5 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms) ............... 46
Table 4-6 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms) ......................... 47
Table 4-7 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms) ..................... 48
Table 4-8 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms) ............................... 49
Table 5-1 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential, Washington (dekatherms) ...................... 51
Table 5-2 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Washington, Selected
Years (dekatherms) ...................................................................................................... 53
Table 5-3 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential, Idaho (dekatherms)................................. 54
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 127

| viii Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.co
Table 5-4 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Idaho, Selected Years
(dekatherms) ................................................................................................................. 56
Table 6-1 Residential Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Washington (dekatherms) . 57
Table 6-2 Residential Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Washington (dekatherms) ........................................................................................... 59
Table 6-3 Residential Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Idaho (dekatherms) ........... 60
Table 6-4 Residential Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Idaho (dekatherms) ..................................................................................................... 62
Table 6-5 Commercial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Washington ....................... 63
Table 6-6 Commercial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Washington (dekatherms) ........................................................................................... 65
Table 6-7 Commercial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Idaho ................................. 66
Table 6-8 Commercial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Idaho (dekatherms) ..................................................................................................... 68
Table 6-9 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Washington (dekatherms) .... 69
Table 6-10 Industrial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Washington (dekatherms) ........................................................................................... 71
Table 6-11 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Idaho (dekatherms)............... 72
Table 6-12 Industrial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential, Idaho
(dekatherms) ................................................................................................................. 74
Table 7-1 Comparison of Avista’s Washington Residential Programs with 2018 UCT Achievable
Economic Potential (dekatherms) .............................................................................. 76
Table 7-2 Comparison of Avista’s Washington Nonresidential Accomplishments with 2018 UCT
Achievable Economic Potential (dekatherms) ......................................................... 77
Table 7-3 Comparison of Avista’s Idaho Residential Programs with 2018 UCT Achievable
Economic Potential (dekatherms) .............................................................................. 78
Table 7-4 Comparison of Avista’s Idaho Nonresidential Accomplishments with 2018 UCT
Achievable Economic Potential (dekatherms) ......................................................... 79
Table 8-1 Comparison of Avista’s Residential UCT Achievable Economic Potential between the
2016 and 2018 CPAs (dekatherms) ............................................................................. 80
Table 8-2 Comparison of Avista’s Nonresidential UCT Achievable Economic Potential between
the 2016 and 2018 CPAs (dekatherms) ...................................................................... 81

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 128

| 1 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
1
INTRODUCTION
This report documents the results of the Avista Utilities 2018-2038 Conservation Potential Assessment
(CPA) as well as the steps followed in its completion. Throughout this study, AEG worked with Avista to
understand the baseline characteristics of their service territory, including a detailed understanding of
energy consumption in the territory, the assumptions and methodologies used in Avista’s official load
forecast, and recent programmatic accomplishments. Adapting methodologies consistent with the
Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s (Council’s) Seventh Conservation and Electric Power Plan1
for natural gas studies, AEG then developed an independent estimate of achievable, cost-effective EE
potential within Avista’s service territory between 2018 and 2038.
Goals of the Conservation Potential Assessment
The first primary objective of this study was to develop independent and credible estimates of EE potential
achievably available within Avista’s service territory using accepted regional inputs and methodologies.
This included estimating technical, achievable technical, then achievable economic potential, using the
Council’s ramp rates as the starting point for all achievability assumptions, leveraging Northwest Energy
Efficiency Alliance’s (NEEA’s) market research initiatives, and utilizing assumptions consistent with Seventh
Plan supply curves and RTF measure workbooks when appropriate for use in natural gas planning studies.
Additionally, the CPA is intended to support the design of programs to be implemented by Avista during
the upcoming years. One output of the LoadMAP model is a comprehensive summary of measures. This
summary documents input assumptions and sources on a per-unit value, program applicability and
achievability (ramp rates), and potential results (units, incremental potential, and cumulative potential) as
well as cost-effectiveness at the UCT and TRC levels. This summary was developed in collaboration with
Avista and refined throughout the project.
Finally, this study was developed to provide EE inputs into Avista’s Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)
process. To this end, AEG developed detailed achievable economic EE inputs by measure for input into
Avista’s SENDOUT planning model under the utility cost test (UCT). These inputs are highly customizable
and provide potential estimates at the state level by measure and end use. We present a map of Avista’s
service territory in Figure 1-1.

1 “Seventh Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan.” Northwest Power & Conservation Council, February 10, 2015.
http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/7/plan/
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 129
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 2 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 1-1 Avista’s Service Territory (courtesy Avista)

Summary of Report Contents
The document is divided into seven additional chapters, summarizing the approach, assumptions, and
results of the EE potential analysis. We describe each section below:
Volume 1, Final Report:
 Analysis Approach and Data Development. Detailed description of AEG’s approach to conducting
Avista’s 2018-2038 Natural Gas CPA and documentation of primary and secondary sources used.
 Market Characterization and Market Profiles. Characterization of Avista’s service territory in the base
year of the study, 2015, including total consumption, number of customers and market units, and
energy intensity. This also includes a breakdown of the energy consumption for residential,
commercial, and eligible industrial customers by end use and technology.
 Baseline Projection. Projection of baseline energy consumption under a naturally occurring efficiency
case, described at the end-use level. The LoadMAP models were first aligned with actual sales and
Avista’s official, weather-normalized econometric forecast and then varied to include the impacts of
future federal standards, ongoing impacts of energy codes, such as the 2015 Washington State Energy
Code on new construction, and future technology purchasing decisions.
 Overall Energy Efficiency Potential. Summary of EE potential for Avista’s Washington and Idaho service
territories for selected years between 2018 and 2038.
 Sector-Level Energy Efficiency Potential. Summary of EE potential for each market sector within Avista’s
service territory, including residential, commercial, and eligible industrial customers for both
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 130
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 3 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Washington and Idaho. This section includes a more detailed breakdown of potential by measure type,
vintage, market segment, end use, and state.
 Comparison with Current Programs Detailed comparison of potential with Avista’s 2016 CPA and
current Avista programs, including new opportunities for potential.
 Comparison with 2016 CPA Detailed comparison of potential with Avista’s 2016 CPA, conducted by
AEG.
Volume 2, Appendices:
 Market Profiles. Detailed market profiles for each market segment. Includes equipment saturation,
unit energy consumption or energy usage index, energy intensity, and total consumption.
 Customer Adoption Factors. Documentation of the ramp rates used in this analysis. These were
adapted from the Seventh Plan electrical power conservation supply curve workbooks for use in the
estimation of achievable natural gas potential.
 Measure List. Contained in a separate spreadsheet accompanying delivery of this report. List of
measures, along with example baseline definitions and efficiency options by market sector analyzed.
 Detailed Measure Assumptions. Contained in a separate spreadsheet accompanying delivery of this
report. This dataset provides input assumptions, measure characteristics, cost-effectiveness results,
and potential estimates for each measure permutation analyzed within the study.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 131
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 4 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Throughout the report we use several abbreviations and acronyms. Table 1-1 shows the abbreviation or
acronym, along with an explanation.
Table 1-1 Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms
Acronym Explanation
AEO Annual Energy Outlook forecast developed by EIA
B/C Ratio Benefit to Cost Ratio
BEST AEG’s Building Energy Simulation Tool
BPA Bonneville Power Administration
C&I Commercial and Industrial
CBSA NEEA’s 2014 Commercial Building Stock Assessment
Council Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC)
DHW Domestic Hot Water
DSM Demand Side Management
EE Energy Efficiency
EIA Energy Information Administration
EUL Estimated Useful Life
EUI Energy Usage Intensity
HVAC Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning
IFSA NEEA’s 2014 Industrial Facilities Site Assessment
IRP Integrated Resource Plan
LoadMAP AEG’s Load Management Analysis and Planning™ tool
NEEA Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
O&M Operations and Maintenance
RBSA NEEA’s 2012 Residential Building Stock Assessment
RTF Regional Technical Forum
RVT Resource Value Test
TRC Total Resource Cost test
UCT Utility Cost Test
UEC Unit Energy Consumption
UES Unit Energy Savings
WSEC 2015 Washington State Energy Code

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 132

| 5 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
2
ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT
This section describes the analysis approach taken for the study and the data sources used to develop the
potential estimates.
Overview of Analysis Approach
To perform the potential analysis, AEG used a bottom-up approach following the major steps listed below.
We describe these analysis steps in more detail throughout the remainder of this chapter.
1. Performed a market characterization to describe sector-level natural gas use for the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors for the base year, 2015. This included extensive use of Avista data
and other secondary data sources from NEEA and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
2. Developed a baseline projection of energy consumption by sector, segment, end use, and
technology for 2016 through 2038.
3. Defined and characterized several hundred EE measures to be applied to all sectors, segments, and
end uses.
4. Estimated technical, achievable technical, and achievable economic energy savings at the measure
level for 2018-2038. Achievable economic potential was assessed using both the UCT and TRC
screens.
Comparison with Northwest Power & Conservation Council Methodology
It is important to note the Council’s methodology was developed for, and used, in electric CPAs. Natural
gas impacts are typically assessed when they overlap with electricity measures (e.g. gas water heating
impacts in an electrically heated “Built Green Washington” home). The Council’s ramp rates were also
developed with electric utility DSM programs in mind. Electricity is the primary focus of the regionwide
potential assessed in the Council’s Plans. Although Avista is a dual-fuel utility, this study focuses on natural
gas measures and programs, which exhibit noticeable differences from electric programs, notably
regarding avoided costs. To account for this, AEG adapted Council methodologies in some cases, rather
than using them directly from the source. This is especially relevant in the development of ramp rates
when achievability was determined to not be applicable to a specific natural gas measure or program. We
discuss this in Section 7 of this report.
A primary objective of the study was to estimate natural gas potential consistent with the Northwest Power
& Conservation Council’s (NWPCC) analytical methodologies and procedures for electric utilities. While
developing Avista’s 2018-2038 CPA, the AEG team relied on an approach vetted and adapted through the
successful completion of CPAs under the Council’s Fifth, Sixth, and now Seventh Power Plans. Among
other aspects, this approach involves using consistent:
 Data sources: Avista surveys, regional surveys, market research, and assumptions
 Measures and assumptions: Avista TRM, Seventh Plan supply curves and RTF work products
 Potential factors: Seventh Plan ramp rates
 Levels of potential: technical, achievable technical, and achievable economic
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 133
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 6 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
 Cost-effectiveness approaches: assessed potential under the UCT as well as Council’s TRC method,
including non-energy impacts (and non-gas energy impacts) which may be quantified and monetized
as well as O&M impacts within the TRC
 Conservation credits: applied a 10% conservation credit to avoided energy costs for energy benefits
was applied to the TRC calculation
LoadMAP Model
For this analysis, AEG used its Load Management Analysis and Planning tool (LoadMAP™) version 5.0 to
develop both the baseline projection and the estimates of potential. AEG developed LoadMAP in 2007
and has enhanced it over time, using it for the EPRI National Potential Study and numerous utility-specific
forecasting and potential studies since. Built in Excel, the LoadMAP framework (see Figure 2-1) is both
accessible and transparent and has the following key features.
 Embodies the basic principles of rigorous end-use models (such as EPRI’s Residential End-Use Energy
Planning System (REEPS) and Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND)) but in a more
simplified, accessible form.
 Includes stock-accounting algorithms that treat older, less efficient appliance/equipment stock
separately from newer, more efficient equipment. Equipment is replaced according to the measure life
and appliance vintage distributions defined by the user.
 Balances the competing needs of simplicity and robustness by incorporating important modeling
details related to equipment saturations, efficiencies, vintage, and the like, where market data are
available, and treats end uses separately to account for varying importance and availability of data
resources.
 Isolates new construction from existing equipment and buildings and treats purchase decisions for
new construction and existing buildings separately. This is especially relevant in the state of
Washington where the 2015 WSEC substantially enhances the efficiency of the new construction
market.
 Uses a simple logic for appliance and equipment decisions. Other models available for this purpose
embody complex customer choice algorithms or diffusion assumptions, and the model parameter s
tend to be difficult to estimate or observe and sometimes produce anomalous results that require
calibration or even overriding. The LoadMAP approach allows the user to drive the appliance and
equipment choices year by year directly in the model. This flexible approach allows users to import
the results from diffusion models or to input individual assumptions. The framework also facilitates
sensitivity analysis.
 Includes appliance and equipment models customized by end use. For example, the logic for water
heating is distinct from furnaces and fireplaces.
 Can accommodate various levels of segmentation. Analysis can be performed at the sector level (e.g.,
total residential) or for customized segments within sectors (e.g., housing type, state, or income level).
 Natively outputs model results in a detailed line-by-line summary file, allowing for review of input
assumptions, cost-effectiveness results, and potential estimates at a granular level. Also allows for the
development of IRP supply curves, both at the achievable technical and achievable economic potential
levels.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 134
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 7 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Consistent with the segmentation scheme and the market profiles we describe below, the LoadMAP model
provides projections of baseline energy use by sector, segment, end use, and technology for existing and
new buildings. It also provides forecasts of total energy use and energy-efficiency savings associated with
the various types of potential. 2
Figure 2-1 LoadMAP Analysis Framework

Definitions of Potential
Before we delve into the details of the analysis approach, it is important to define what we mean when
discussing energy efficiency (EE) potential. In this study, the savings estimates are developed for three
types of potential: technical potential, economic potential, and achievable potential. These are developed
at the measure level, and results are provided as savings impacts over the 21-year forecasting horizon.
The various levels are described below.
 Technical Potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of EE potential. It assumes customers
adopt all feasible measures regardless of their cost. At the time of existing equipment failure,
customers replace their equipment with the most efficient option available. In new construction,
customers and developers also choose the most efficient equipment option.
Technical potential also assumes the adoption of every other available measure, where technically
feasible. For example, it includes installation of high-efficiency windows in all new construction
opportunities and furnace maintenance in all existing buildings with installed furnaces. These retrofit
measures are phased in over a number of years to align with the stock turnover of related equipment
units, rather than modeled as immediately available all at once.

2 The model computes energy forecasts for each type of potential for each end use as an intermediate calculation. Annual-energy savings
are calculated as the difference between the value in the baseline projection and the value in the potential forecast (e.g., the technical potential forecast).
Market Profiles
Base-Year Energy
Consumption

Analysis
Projection Results
Customer
segmentation
Market size
Equipment saturation
Technology shares
Vintage distribution
Unit energy
consumption
New construction
profile
By technology, end
use, segment, vintage,
sector, and state
Economic Data
Customer growth
Energy prices
Elasticities & HDD65s
Technology Data
Efficiency options
Codes and standards
List of measures
Saturations
Ramp rates
Avoided cost
Cost-effectiveness
Baseline Projection
Energy-efficiency
Projections
Technical
Achievable Technical
Achievable Economic
(UCT and TRC)
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 135
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 8 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
 Achievable Technical Potential refines technical potential by applying customer participation
rates that account for market barriers, customer awareness and attitudes, program maturity, and other
factors that affect market penetration of conservation measures. The customer adoption rates used
in this study were the ramp rates developed for the Northwest Power & Conservation Council’s
Seventh Plan based on the electric-utility model, tailored for use in natural gas EE programs.
 UCT Achievable Economic Potential further refines achievable technical potential by applying
an economic cost-effectiveness screen. In this analysis, primary cost-effectiveness is measured by the
utility cost test (UCT), which assesses cost-effectiveness from the utility’s perspective. This test
compares lifetime energy benefits to the costs of delivering the measure through a utility program,
excluding monetized non-energy impacts. These costs are the incentive, as a percent of incremental
cost of the given efficiency measure, relative to the relevant baseline course of action (e.g. federal
standard for lost opportunity and no action for retrofits), plus any administrative costs that are
incurred by the program to deliver and implement the measure. If the benefits outweigh the costs
(that is, if the UCT ratio is greater than 1.0), a given measure is included in the economic potential.
 TRC Achievable Economic Potential is similar to UCT achievable economic potential in that it
refines achievable technical potential through cost-effectiveness analysis. The total resource cost (TRC)
test assesses cost-effectiveness from a combined utility and participant perspective. As such, this test
includes full measure costs but also includes non-energy impacts realized by the customer if
quantifiable and monetized. In addition to non-energy impacts, we assessed the impacts of non-gas
savings following Council methodology. This includes a calibration credit for space heating equipment
consumption to account for secondary heating equipment present in an average home as well as
other electric end-use impacts such as cooling and interior lighting as applicable on a measure-by-
measure basis. As a secondary screen, we include TRC results for comparative purposes.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 136
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 9 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Market Characterization
Now that we have described the modeling tool and provided the definitions of the potential cases, the
first step in the actual analysis approach is market characterization. To estimate the savings potential from
energy-efficient measures, it is necessary to understand how much energy is used today and what
equipment is currently in service. This characterization begins with a segmentation of Avista’s natural gas
footprint to quantify energy use by sector, segment, end-use application, and the current set of
technologies in use. For this we rely primarily on information from Avista, augmenting with secondary
sources as necessary.
Segmentation for Modeling Purposes
This assessment first defined the market segments (states, building types, end uses, and other dimensions)
that are relevant in Avista’s service territory. The segmentation scheme for this project is presented in
Table 2-1.
Table 2-1 Overview of Avista Analysis Segmentation Scheme
Dimension Segmentation Variable Description
0 State Washington and Idaho
1 Sector Residential, Commercial, Industrial
2 Segment
Residential: Single Family, Multifamily, Mobile Home, Low Income
Commercial: Office, Restaurant, Retail, Grocery, School, College,
Health, Lodging, Warehouse, Miscellaneous
Industrial
3 Vintage Existing and new construction
4 End uses Heating, secondary heating, water heating, food preparation, process,
and miscellaneous (as appropriate by sector)
5 Appliances/end uses and
technologies
Technologies such as furnaces, water heaters, and process heating by
application, etc.
6 Equipment efficiency levels
for new purchases
Baseline and higher-efficiency options as appropriate for each
technology
With the segmentation scheme defined, we then performed a high-level market characterization of natural
gas sales in the base year, 2015. This is the same year that the 2016 CPA began in. We started in this year
for consistency but aligned the forecast (and equipment purchases) in subsequent years with weather-
actual sales. This data was based on detailed baseline studies conducted by Avista as well as regional data
available. This information provided control totals at a sector level for calibrating the LoadMAP model to
known data for the base-year.
Market Profiles
The next step was to develop market profiles for each sector, customer segment, end use, and technology.
A market profile includes the following elements:
 Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment. For the residential sector,
the unit we use is number of households. In the commercial sector, it is floor space measured in square
feet. For the industrial sector, it is number of employees.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 137
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 10 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
 Saturations indicate the share of the market that is served by a particular end-use technology. Three
types of saturation definitions are commonly used:
o The conditioned space approach accounts for the fraction of each building that is conditioned by
the end use. This applies to cooling and heating end uses.
o The whole-building approach measures shares of space in a building with an end use regardless
of the portion of each building that is served by the end use. Examples are commercial
refrigeration and food service, and domestic water heating and appliances.
o The 100% saturation approach applies to end uses that are generally present in every building or
home and are simply set to 100% in the base year.
 UEC (Unit Energy Consumption) or EUI (Energy Usage Index) define consumption for a
given technology. UEC represents the amount of energy a given piece of equipment is expected to
use in one year. EUI is a UEC indexed to a non-building market unit, such as per square foot or per
employee)
o These are indices that refer to a measure of average annual energy use per market unit (home,
floor space, or employee in the residential, commercial, and industrial sector, respectively) that
are served by an end-use technology. UECs and EUIs embody an average level of service and
average equipment efficiency for the market segment.
 Annual energy intensity for the residential sector represents the average energy use for the
technology across all homes in 2015. It is computed as the product of the saturation and the UEC and
is defined as therms/household for natural gas. For the commercial and industrial sectors, intensity,
computed as the product of the saturation and the EUI, represents the average use for the technology
across all floor space or all employees in the base year.
 Annual usage is the annual energy used by each end-use technology in the segment. It is the
product of the market size and intensity and is quantified in therms or dekatherms.
The market characterization results and the market profiles are presented in Section 3 and Appendix A.
Baseline Projection
The next step was to develop the baseline projection of annual natural gas use for 2016 through 2038 by
customer segment and end use in the absence of new utility energy efficiency programs.
We first aligned with Avista’s official forecast. AEG incorporated assumptions and data utilized in the
official utility forecast. Avista’s heating degree days (base 65°F) were incorporated into the LoadMAP
model to align the baseline projection with the official utility forecast. We calibrated to actual sales when
available.
The end-use projection includes impacts of future federal standards that were effective as of December
2017, which drive energy consumption down through the study period.
Naturally occurring energy conservation, that is, energy conservation that is realized within the service
area independent of utility-sponsored programs, is incorporated into the baseline projection consistent
with the US Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook for the Pacific region. Results of
the primary market research were used to calibrate these assumptions to ensure the secondary sources
were relevant to Avista customers. For example, some customers will purchase and install energy
conservation measures that are available in the market without a utility incentive.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 138
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 11 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
As such, the baseline projection is the foundation for the analysis of savings in future conservation cases
and scenarios as well as the metric against which potential savings are measured.
Inputs to the baseline projection include:
 Current economic growth forecasts (i.e., customer growth, changes in weather (Heating Degree Day,
base-65°F (HDD65) normalization))
 Trends in fuel shares and equipment saturations
 Existing and approved changes to building codes and equipment standards
We present the baseline projection results for the system as a whole, and for each sector in Section 4.
Energy Efficiency Measure Development
This section describes the framework used to assess the savings, costs, and other attributes of energy
efficiency measures. These characteristics form the basis for measure-level cost-effectiveness analyses as
well as for determining measure-level savings. For all measures, AEG assembled information to reflect
equipment performance, incremental costs, and equipment lifetimes. This information combined with
Avista’s avoided cost data informs the economic screens that determine economically feasible measures.
In this section, AEG would like to acknowledge the work of the Avista team in detailed measure
assumptions specific to the territory and region within the Avista TRM, which was provided at the outset
of this study.
Figure 2-2 outlines the framework for measure characterization analysis. First, the list of measures is
identified; each measure is then assigned an applicability for each market sector and segment and
characterized with appropriate savings, costs and other attributes; then the cost-effectiveness screening
is performed. Avista provided feedback during each step of the process to ensure measure assumptions
and results lined up with programmatic experience.
We compiled a robust list of conservation measures for each customer sector, drawing upon Avista’s TRM
and program experience, AEG’s own measure databases and building simulation models, and secondary
sources, primarily the Regional Technical Forum’s (RTF) UES measure workbooks and the Seventh Plan’s
electric power conservation supply curves. This universal list of measures covers all major types of end-
use equipment, as well as devices and actions to reduce energy consumption.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 139
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 12 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 2-2 Approach for ECM Assessment

The selected measures are categorized into two types according to the LoadMAP modeling taxonomy:
equipment measures and non-equipment measures.
 Equipment measures are efficient energy-consuming pieces of equipment that save energy by
providing the same service with a lower energy requirement than a standard unit. An example is an
ENERGY STAR® residential water heater (UEF 0.64) that replaces a standard efficiency water heater
(UEF 0.58). For equipment measures, many efficiency levels may be available for a given technology,
ranging from the baseline unit (often determined by a code or standard) up to the most efficient
product commercially available. These measures are applied on a stock-turnover basis, and in general,
are referred to as lost opportunity (LO) measures by the Council because once a purchase decision is
made, there will not be another opportunity to improve the efficiency of that equipment item until its
effective useful life (EUL) is reached once again.
 Non-equipment measures save energy by reducing the need for delivered energy, but do not
necessarily involve replacement or purchase of major end-use equipment (such as a furnace or water
heater). Measure installation is not tied to a piece of equipment reaching end of useful life, so these
are generally categorized as “retrofit” measures. An example would be low-flow showerheads that
modify a household’s hot water consumption. The existing showerheads can be achievably replaced
without waiting for the existing showerhead to malfunction, and saves energy used by the water
heating equipment. Non-equipment measures typically fall into one of the following categories:
o Building shell (windows, insulation, roofing material)
o Equipment controls (smart thermostats, water heater setback)
o Whole-building design (ENERGY STAR homes)
AEG universal
measure list
Measure
descriptions
Measure characterization
Economic screen
UCT and TRC
Energy savings Costs and NEIs
Lifetime Base saturation and
applicability
Client measure
data library
(RTF, 7th Plan, AEO, Statewide
TRMs, evaluation reports, etc.)
AEG measure
data library
(DEEM)
Building Simulations
Avoided costs, discount rate,
transport losses
Inputs Process
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 140
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 13 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
o Retrocommissioning and strategic energy management
We developed a preliminary list of efficient measures, which was distributed to Avista’s project team for
review. Once we assembled the list of measures, the AEG team assessed their energy-saving
characteristics. For each measure, we also characterized incremental cost, service life, non-energy impacts,
and other performance factors. Following the measure characterization, we performed an economic
screening of each measure, which serves as the basis for developing the economic and achievable
potential scenarios.
Representative Measure Data Inputs
To provide an example of measure data, Table 2-2 and Table 2-3 present examples of the detailed data
inputs behind both equipment and non-equipment measures, respectively, for the case of residential
direct-fuel furnaces in single-family homes in Washington. Table 2-2 displays the various efficiency levels
available as equipment measures, as well as the corresponding effective useful life, energy usage, and
cost estimates. The columns labeled “On Market” and “Off Market” reflect equipment availability due to
codes and standards or the entry of new products to the market.
Table 2-2 Example Equipment Measures for Direct Fuel Furnace – Single-Family Home,
Washington
Efficiency Level Useful Life
(years)
Equipment
Cost
Energy Usage
(therms/yr)
On
Market
Off
Market
AFUE 80% 20 $1,955 517 2015 2023
AFUE 90% 20 $2,058 465 2015 2023
AFUE 92% 20 $2,099 453 2015 n/a
AFUE 95% 20 $2,778 438 2015 n/a
AFUE 98% 20 $3,035 423 2015 n/a
Convert to NG Heat Pump 20 $6,739 345 2015 n/a
Table 2-3 lists some of the non-equipment measures applicable to a direct-fuel furnace in an existing
single-family home. All measures are evaluated for cost effectiveness based on the lifetime benefits
relative to the cost of the measure. The total savings, costs, and monetized non-energy impacts are
calculated for each year of the study and depend on the base year saturation of the measure, the
applicability of the measure, and the savings as a percentage of the relevant energy end uses. We model
two flavors of most shell insulations measures. The first is the installation of insulation where there is none
(or very little). This applies to a small subset of the population (roughly 6% of the population is eligible
for this measure per RBSA 2011) but has large savings impacts. This percentage is low due to the impacts
of current Avista programs, strict Washington building codes, and naturally occurring efficiency. The
second is an insulation upgrade measure where homes with existing insulation below the threshold but
not classified as no insulation, may be upgraded to higher R-values. This applies to a much larger
percentage of the market.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 141
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 14 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 2-3 Example Non-Equipment Measures – Existing Single Family Home, Washington3
End Use Measure Saturation
in 20154 Applicability Lifetime
(yrs)
Measure
Installed Cost
Energy
Savings (%)
Heating Insulation - Ceiling
Installation 0% 6% 45 $1,280 31.3%
Heating Insulation – Ceiling Upgrade 20% 88% 45 $1,739 1.2%
Heating Ducting Repair and Sealing 15% 50% 20 $794 6.0%
Heating Windows - High Efficiency 89% 100% 45 $5,337 25.5%
Table 2-4 summarizes the number of measures evaluated for each segment within each sector.
Table 2-4 Number of Measures Evaluated
Sector Total Measures Measure Permutations
w/ 2 Vintages
Measure Permutations
w/ All Segments & States
Residential 44 88 704
Commercial 52 104 2,080
Industrial 32 64 128
Total Measures Evaluated 128 256 2,912
Calculation of Energy Conservation Potential
The approach we used for this study to calculate the energy conservation potential adheres to the
approaches and conventions outlined in the National Action Plan for Energy-Efficiency (NAPEE) Guide for
Conducting Potential Studies.5 This document represents credible and comprehensive industry best
practices for specifying energy conservation potential. Three types of potential were developed as part of
this effort: technical potential, achievable technical potential, and achievable economic potential (using
UCT and TRC). The calculation of technical potential is a straightforward algorithm which, as described
above, assumes that customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of their cost.
Stacking of Measures and Interactive Effects
An important factor when estimating potential is to consider interactions between measures when they
are applied within the same space. This is important to avoid double counting and could feasibly result in
savings at greater than 100% of equipment consumption if not properly accounted for.
This occurs at the population or system level, where multiple DSM actions must be stacked or layered on
top of each other in succession, rather than simply summed arithmetically. These interactions are
automatically handled within the LoadMAP models where measure impacts are stacked on top of each
other, modifying the baseline for each subsequent measure. We first compute the total savings of each
measure on a standalone basis, then also assign a stacking priority, based on levelized cost, to the
measures such that “integrated” or “stacked” savings will be calculated as a percent reduction to the

3 The applicability factors consider whether the measure is applicable to a particular building type and whether it is feasible to install the
measure. For instance, duct repair and sealing is not applicable to homes with zonal heating systems since there is no ductwork present
to repair.
4 Note that saturation levels reflected increase from their base year saturation as more measures are adopted.
5 National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2007). National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Vision for 2025: Developing a Framework for Change. www.epa.gov/eeactionplan.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 142
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 15 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
running total of baseline energy remaining in each end use after the previous measures have been applied.
This ensures that the available pie of baseline energy shrinks in proportion to the number of DSM
measures applied, as it would in reality. The loading order is based on the levelized cost of conserved
energy, such that the more economical measures that are more likely to be selected from a resource
planning perspective will be the first to be applied to the modeled population.
We also account for exclusivity of certain measure options when defining measure assumptions. For
instance, if an AFUE 95% furnace is installed in a single-family home, the model will not allow that same
home to install an AFUE 98% furnace, or any other furnace, until the newly installed AFUE 95% option has
reached its end of useful life. For non-equipment measures, which do not have a native applicability limit,
we define base saturations and applicabilities such that measures do not overlap. For example, we model
two flavors of ceiling insulation. The first assumes the installation of insulation where there previously was
none. The second upgrades pre-existing insulation if it falls under a certain threshold. We used regional
market research data to ensure exclusivity of these two options. NEEA’s 2014 RBSA contains information
on average R-values of insulation installed. The AEG team used this data to define the percent of homes
that could install one measure, but not the other.
Estimating Customer Adoption
Once the technical potential is established, estimates for the market adoption rates for each measure are
applied that specify the percentage of customers that will select the highest–efficiency economic option.
This phases potential in over a more realistic time frame that considers barriers such as imperfect
information, supplier constraints, technology availability, and individual customer preferences. The intent
of market adoption rates is to establish a path to full market maturity for each measure or technology
group and ensure resource planning does not overstep acquisition capabilities. We adapted the Northwest
Power and Conservation Council’s Seventh Plan ramp rates to develop these achievability factors for each
measure. Applying these ramp rates as factors leads directly to the achievable technical potential.
Screening Measures for Cost-Effectiveness
With achievable technical potential established, the final step is to apply an economic screen and arrive
at the subset of measures that are cost-effective and ultimately included in achievable economic potential.
LoadMAP performs an economic screen for each individual measure in each year of the planning horizon.
This study uses the UCT test as the primary cost-effectiveness metric, which compares the lifetime hourly
energy benefits of each applicable measure with the incentive and administrative costs incurred by the
utility. The lifetime benefits are calculated by multiplying the annual energy savings for each measure by
Avista’s avoided costs and discounting the dollar savings to the present value equivalent. Lifetime costs
represent incremental measure cost. The analysis uses each measure’s values for savings, costs, and
lifetimes that were developed as part of the measure characterization process described above.
The LoadMAP model performs this screening dynamically, considering changing savings and cost data
over time. Thus, some measures pass the economic screen for some, but not all, of the years in the
forecast.
It is important to note the following about the economic screen:
 The economic evaluation of every measure in the screen is conducted relative to a baseline
condition. For instance, in order to determine the therm savings potential of a measure,
consumption with the measure applied must be compared to the consumption of a baseline
condition.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 143
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 16 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
 The economic screening was conducted only for measures that are applicable to each building type
and vintage; thus, if a measure is deemed to be irrelevant to a building type and vintage, it is
excluded from the respective economic screen.
This constitutes the achievable economic potential and includes every program-ready opportunity for
conservation savings. Potential results are presented in Sections 4 and 5. Measure-level detail is available
as a separate appendix to this report.
Data Development
This section details the data sources used in this study, followed by a discussion of how these sources
were applied. In general, data were adapted to local conditions, for example, by using local sources for
measure data and local weather for building simulations.
Data Sources
The data sources are organized into the following categories:
 Avista-provided data
 AEG’s databases and analysis tools
 Other secondary data and reports
Avista Data
Our highest priority data sources for this study were those that were specific to Avista, including the
primary market research conducted specifically for this study. This data is specific to Avista’s service
territory and is an important consideration when customizing the model for Avista’s market. This is best
practice when developing CPA baselines when the data is available.
 Avista customer account database. Avista provided billing data for development of customer
counts and energy use for each sector. This included a very detailed database of customer building
classifications which was instrumental in the development of segmentation.
 Avista’s 2013 GenPOP Residential Survey. In 2013, Avista hired The Cadmus Group to conduct a
residential saturation survey, which included results from 1,051 customers. The results of this survey
helped segment the residential sector and establish fuel and technology shares for the base year. This
data was very useful in developing a detailed estimate of energy consumption within Avista’s service
territory.
 Load forecasts. Avista provided forecasts, by sector and state, of energy consumption, customer
counts, weather actuals for 2015 and 2017, as well as weather-normal HDD65s.
 Economic information. Avista provided a discount rate as well as avoided cost forecasts consistent
with those utilized in the IRP.
 Avista program data. Avista provided information about past and current programs, including
program descriptions, goals, and measure achievements to date.
 Avista TRM. Avista provided a documented list of energy conservation measures and assumptions
considered within current programs. We utilized this as a primary source of measure information,
supplemented by Northwest data, AEG data, and secondary data as described below.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 144
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 17 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Northwest Regional Data
The study utilized a variety of local data and research, including research performed by the Northwest
Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) and analyses conducted by the Council. Most important among these
are:
 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Seventh Plan and Regional Technical
Forum workbooks. To develop its Power Plan, the Council maintains workbooks with detailed
information about measures. This was used as a primary data source when Avista-specific program
data was not available, and the data was determined to be applicable to natural gas conservation
measures. The most recent data and workbooks available were used at the time of this study.
 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment
Single-Family, Market Research Report, http://neea.org/docs/reports/residential-building-stock-
assessment-single-family-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8
 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment:
Manufactured Home, Market Research Report, #E13-249, January 2013.
http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment--manufactured-
homes-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8
 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment:
Multifamily, Market Research Report, #13-263, September 2013. http://neea.org/docs/default-
source/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment--multi-family-characteristics-and-energy-
use.pdf?sfvrsn=4
 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 20 14 Commercial Building Stock Assessment ,
December 16, 2014, http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/2014-cbsa-final-report_05-dec-
2014.pdf?sfvrsn=12.
 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2014 Industrial Facilities Site Assessment,
December 29, 2014, http://neea.org/resource-center/regional-data-resources/industrial-facilities-
site-assessment
Since Avista’s GenPOP survey contained detailed appliance saturations, the 2011 RBSA was used more for
benchmarking and comparative purposes, rather than as a primary source of data. The NEEA surveys were
used extensively to develop base saturation and applicability assumptions for many of the non-equipment
measures within the study. It is worth noting that NEEA’s 2016 RBSA was released during the drafting of
this report, following conclusion of analysis. This survey incorporates new market trends and building
characteristics and is expected to be a useful source of measure baseline saturations when updating this
CPA.
AEG Data
AEG maintains several databases and modeling tools that we use for forecasting and potential studies.
Relevant data from these tools has been incorporated into the analysis and deliverables for this study.
 AEG Energy Market Profiles. For more than 10 years, AEG staff has maintained profiles of end-
use consumption for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. These profiles include market
size, fuel shares, unit consumption estimates, and annual energy use by fuel (natural gas and
electricity), customer segment and end use for 10 regions in the U.S. The Energy Information
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 145
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 18 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Administration surveys (RECS, CBECS and MECS) as well as state-level statistics and local customer
research provide the foundation for these regional profiles.
 Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST). AEG’s BEST is a derivative of the DOE 2.2 building
simulation model, used to estimate base-year UECs and EUIs, as well as measure savings for the HVAC-
related measures.
 AEG’s Database of Energy Conservation Measures (DEEM). AEG maintains an extensive
database of measure data for our studies. Our database draws upon reliable sources including the
California Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER), the EIA Technology Forecast Updates –
Residential and Commercial Building Technologies – Reference Case, RS Means cost data, and
Grainger Catalog Cost data.
 Recent studies. AEG has conducted more than 60 studies of EE potential in the last five years. We
checked our input assumptions and analysis results against the results from these other studies, both
within the region and across the country.
Other Secondary Data and Reports
Finally, a variety of secondary data sources and reports were used for this study. The main sources are
identified below.
 Annual Energy Outlook. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), conducted each year by the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents yearly projections and analysis of energy topics. For
this study, we used data from the 2015 and 2017 AEO.
 American Community Survey. The US Census American Community Survey is an ongoing survey
that provides data every year on household characteristics. http://www.census.gov/acs/www/
 Local Weather Data. Weather from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center for Spokane in
Washington and Coure d’Alene in Idaho were used where applicable.
 EPRI End-Use Models (REEPS and COMMEND). These models provide the energy-use
elasticities we apply to prices, household income, home size, heating, and cooling.
 Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER). The California Energy Commission and
California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) sponsor this database, which is designed to provide
well-documented estimates of energy and peak demand savings values, measure costs, and effective
useful life (EUL) for the state of California. We used the DEER database to cross check the measure
savings we developed using BEST and DEEM.
 Other relevant resources: These include reports from the Consortium for Energy Efficiency, the
EPA, and the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. This also includes technical reference
manuals (TRMs) from other states. When using data from outside the region, especially weather-
sensitive data, AEG adapted assumptions for use within Avista’s territory.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 146
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 19 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Application of Data to the Analysis
We now discuss how the data sources described above were used for each step of the study.
Data Application for Market Characterization
To construct the high-level market characterization of natural gas consumption and market size units
(households for residential, floor space for commercial, and employees for industrial), we primarily used
Avista’s billing data as well as secondary data from AEG’s Energy Market Profiles database.
Data Application for Market Profiles
The specific data elements for the market profiles, together with the key data sources, are shown in Table
2-5. To develop the market profiles for each segment, we used the following approach:
1. Develop control totals for each segment. These include market size, segment-level annual natural gas
use, and annual intensity. Control totals were based on Avista’s actual sales and customer-level
information found in Avista’s customer billing database. We used the market profiles from the 2016
CPA as a starting point.
2. Develop existing appliance saturations and the energy characteristics of appliances, equipment, and
buildings using equipment flags within Avista’s billing data, NEEA’s 2011 RBSA, 2014 CBSA, and 2014
IFSA, DOE’s 2009 RECS, the 2015 and 2017 editions of the Annual Energy Outlook, AEG’s Energy Market
Profile (EMP) for the Pacific region, and the American Housing Survey.
3. Ensure calibration to Avista control totals for annual natural gas sales in each sector and segment.
4. Compare and cross-check with other recent AEG studies.
5. Work with Avista staff to verify the data aligns with their knowledge and experience.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 147
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 20 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 2-5 Data Applied for the Market Profiles
Model Inputs Description Key Sources
Market size Base-year residential dwellings, commercial
floor space, and industrial employment
Avista 2015 actual sales
Avista customer account database
Annual intensity
Residential: Annual use per household
Commercial: Annual use per square foot
Industrial: Annual use per employee
Avista customer account database
AEG’s Energy Market Profiles
AEO 2015 – Pacific Region
Other recent studies
Appliance/equipment
saturations
Fraction of dwellings with an
appliance/technology
Percentage of C&I floor space/employment
with equipment/technology
Avista 2013 GenPOP Survey
2011 RBSA, 2014 CBSA and IFSA
2014 American Community Survey
AEG’s Energy Market Profiles
UEC/EUI for each end-use
technology
UEC: Annual natural gas use in homes and
buildings that have the technology
EUI: Annual natural gas use per square
foot/employee for a technology in floor space
that has the technology
HVAC uses: BEST simulations using
prototypes developed for Avista
Engineering analysis
AEG DEEM
AEO 2015 – Pacific Region
Recent AEG studies
Appliance/equipment age
distribution Age distribution for each technology 2011 RBSA, 2014 CBSA, and recent
AEG studies
Efficiency options for each
technology
List of available efficiency options and annual
energy use for each technology
Avista current program offerings
AEG DEEM
AEO 2015 through AEO 2017
CA DEER
Recent AEG studies

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 148
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 21 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Data Application for Baseline Projection
Table 2-6 summarizes the LoadMAP model inputs required for the baseline projection. These inputs are
required for each segment within each sector, as well as for new construction and existing
dwellings/buildings.
Table 2-6 Data Applied for the Baseline Projection in LoadMAP
Model Inputs Description Key Sources
Customer growth forecasts Forecasts of new construction in
residential and C&I sectors Avista load forecast
Equipment purchase shares for
baseline projection
For each equipment/technology,
purchase shares for each efficiency
level; specified separately for existing
equipment replacement and new
construction
Shipment data from AEO and ENERGY
STAR
AEO 2017 regional forecast
assumptions6
Appliance/efficiency standards
analysis
Utilization model parameters Price elasticities, elasticities for other
variables (income, weather) EPRI’s REEPS and COMMEND models
In addition, assumptions were incorporated for known future equipment standards as of December 2017,
as shown in Table 2-7 and Table 2-8. The assumptions tables here extend through 2025, after which all
standards are assumed to hold steady.

6 We developed baseline purchase decisions using the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy Outlook report (2017), which utilizes
the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to produce a self-consistent supply and demand economic model. We calibrated equipment purchase options to match distributions/allocations of efficiency levels to manufacturer shipment data for recent years.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 149
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 22 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 2-7 Residential Natural Gas Equipment Federal Standards7
End Use Technology 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Space Heating
Furnace – Direct Fuel AFUE 80% AFUE 92%*
Boiler – Direct Fuel AFUE 82% AFUE 84%
Secondary Heating Fireplace N/A
Water Heating
Water Heater <= 55 gal. UEF 0.58
Water Heater > 55 gal. UEF 0.76
Appliances
Clothes Dryer CEF 3.30
Stove/Oven N/A
Miscellaneous
Pool Heater TE 0.82
Miscellaneous N/A
* This code was originally set to take effect in 2021 but exempts smaller systems. The comment period was also extended into 2017 and the
standard will not take effect until at least 5 years after that has concluded. As a result, we modeled this standard coming online officially in 2024.

Table 2-8 Commercial and Industrial Natural Gas Equipment Standards
End Use Technology 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cooling
Furnace AFUE 80% / TE 0.80
Boiler Average around AFUE 80% / TE 0.80 (varies by size)
Unit Heater Standard (intermittent ignition and power venting or automatic flue damper)
Water Heater Water Heating TE 0.80

7 The assumptions tables here extend through 2025, after which all standards are assumed to hold steady.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 150
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 23 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Energy Conservation Measure Data Application
Table 2-9 details the energy-efficiency data inputs to the LoadMAP model. It describes each input and
identifies the key sources used in the Avista analysis.
Table 2-9 Data Inputs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP
Model Inputs Description Key Sources
Energy Impacts
The annual reduction in consumption attributable to each
specific measure. Savings were developed as a
percentage of the energy end use that the measure
affects.
Avista TRM
NWPCC workbooks, RTF
AEG BEST
AEG DEEM
AEO 2017
CA DEER
Other secondary sources
Costs
Equipment Measures: Includes the full cost of purchasing
and installing the equipment on a per-household, per-
square-foot, or per employee basis for the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors, respectively.
Non-Equipment Measures: Existing buildings – full
installed cost. New Construction - the costs may be either
the full cost of the measure, or as appropriate, it may be
the incremental cost of upgrading from a standard level
to a higher efficiency level.
Avista TRM
NWPCC workbooks, RTF
AEG DEEM
AEO 2017
CA DEER
RS Means
Other secondary sources
Measure Lifetimes
Estimates derived from the technical data and secondary
data sources that support the measure demand and
energy savings analysis.
Avista TRM
NWPCC workbooks, RTF
AEG DEEM
AEO 2017
CA DEER
Other secondary sources
Applicability
Estimate of the percentage of dwellings in the residential
sector, square feet in the commercial sector, or
employees in the industrial sector where the measure is
applicable and where it is technically feasible to
implement.
2011 RBSA, 2014 CBSA
2015 WSEC for limitations on new
construction
AEG DEEM
CA DEER
Other secondary sources
On Market and Off
Market Availability
Expressed as years for equipment measures to reflect
when the equipment technology is available or no longer
available in the market.
AEG appliance standards and
building codes analysis

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 151
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 24 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Data Application for Cost-effectiveness Screening
To perform the cost-effectiveness screening, a number of economic assumptions were needed. All cost
and benefit values were analyzed as real dollars, converted from nominal provided by Avista. We applied
Avista’s long-term discount rate of 4.34% excluding inflation. LoadMAP is configured to vary this by market
sector (e.g. residential and commercial) if Avista develops alternative values in the future.
Estimates of Customer Adoption
To estimate the timing and rate of customer adoption in the potential forecasts, two sets of parameters
are needed:
 Technical diffusion curves for non-equipment measures. Equipment measures are installed
when existing units fail. Non-equipment measures do not have this natural periodicity, so rather than
installing all available non-equipment measures in the first year of the projection (instantaneous
potential), they are phased in according to adoption schedules that generally align with the diffusion
of similar equipment measures. For this analysis, we used the Council’s retrofit ramp rates, “Retro”,
applied before the 85% achievability adjustment.
 Customer adoption rates, also referred to as take rates or ramp rates, are applied to measures on
a year by year basis. These rates represent customer adoption of measures when delivered through a
best-practice portfolio of well-operated efficiency programs under a reasonable policy or regulatory
framework. Information channels are assumed to be established and efficient for marketing, educating
consumers, and coordinating with trade allies and delivery partners. The primary barrier to adoption
reflected in this case is customer preferences. Again, these are based on the ramp rates from the
Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s Seventh Plan.
The ramp rates referenced above were adapted for use for assessing natural gas measure potential. We
describe this process in Section 7. The customer adoption rates used in this study are available in Appendix
B.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 152

| 25 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
3
MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES
In this section, we describe how customers in the Avista service territory use natural gas in the base year
of the study, 2015. It begins with a high-level summary of energy use across all sectors and then delves
into each sector in more detail.
Overall Energy Use Summary
Total natural gas consumption for all sectors for Avista’s Washington territory in 2015 was 15,376,657
dekatherms. As shown in Figure 3-1 and Table 3-1, the residential sector accounts for the largest share of
annual energy use at 60%, followed by the commercial sector at 37%. The industrial sector accounts for
3% of usage.
Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Natural Gas Use in Base Year 2015, Washington (annual therms, percent)

Table 3-1 Avista Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015
Sector Natural Gas
Use (dekatherms) % of Use
Residential 9,186,242 60%
Commercial 5,734,759 37%
Industrial 455,656 3%
Total 15,376,657 100%

Residential, 60%
Commercial, 37%
Industrial, 3%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 153
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 26 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Total natural gas consumption for all sectors for Avista’s Idaho territory in 2015 was 7,215,664 dekatherms.
As shown in Figure 3-2 and Table 3-2, the residential sector accounts for the largest share of annual energy
use at 60%, followed by the commercial sector at 34%. The industrial sector accounts for 6% of usage.
Figure 3-2 Sector-Level Natural Gas Use in Base Year 2015, Idaho (annual therms, percent)

Table 3-2 Avista Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015
Sector Natural Gas
Use (dekatherms) % of Use
Residential 4,303,387 60%
Commercial 2,456,621 34%
Industrial 455,656 6%
Total 7,215,664 100%

Residential, 60%
Commercial, 34%
Industrial, 6%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 154
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 27 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Residential Sector
Washington Characterization
The total number of households and gas sales for the service territory were obtained from Avista’s actual
sales for 2015. Details, including number of households and 2015 natural gas consumption for the
residential sector in Washington can be found in Table 3-3 below. In 2015, there were over 141,000
households in Avista’s Washington territory that used a total of nearly 9,186,242 dekatherms, resulting in
an average use per household of 650 therms per year. This is an important number for the calibration
process.
These values represent weather actuals for 2015 and were adjusted within LoadMAP to normal weather
using heating degree day, base 65°F, using data provided by Avista. 2015 was an exceptionally warm year,
which is reflected in lower than average consumption. When adjusting these values for normal weather in
2018, heating consumption increased significantly.
Table 3-3 Residential Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015
Segment Households Natural Gas Use
(dekatherms)
Annual Use/Customer
(therms/HH)
Single Family 85,875 6,014,673 700
Multi-Family 7,909 348,896 441
Mobile Home 5,085 299,121 588
Low Income 42,372 2,523,553 596
Total 141,241 9,186,242 650
Figure 3-3 Residential Natural Gas Use by Segment, Washington, 2015

Figure 3-3 shows the distribution of annual natural gas consumption by end use for an average residential
household. Space heating comprises a majority of the load at 75% followed by water heating at 19%.
Miscellaneous loads make up a very small portion of the total load. This is expected for a natural gas
profile as there are very few miscellaneous technologies. One example are natural gas barbecues.
Single Family
66%
Multi-Family
4%
Mobile Home
3%
Low Income
27%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 155
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 28 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-4 Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use, Washington, 2015

Avista’s GenPOP survey informed estimates of the saturation of key equipment types, which were used to
distribute usage at the technology and end use level.
Figure 3-4 presents average natural gas intensities by end use and housing type. Single family homes
consume substantially more energy in space heating. This is due to two factors. The first is that single
family homes are larger. The second is that more walls are exposed to the outside environment, compared
to multifamily dwellings with many shared walls. This increases heat transfer, resulting in greater heating
loads. Water heating consumption is higher in single family homes as well. This is due to a greater number
of occupants, which increases the demand for hot water.
Figure 3-5 Residential Energy Intensity by End Use and Segment, Washington, 2015 (Annual
Therms/HH)

Space Heating
75%
Secondary
Heating
3%
Water Heating
19%
Appliances
1%
Miscellaneous
2%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Single Family Multi-Family Mobile Home Low Income Average
Home
therms/
HH
Space Heating
Secondary Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 156
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 29 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
The market profile for an average home in the residential sector is presented in Table 3-4 below. An
important step in the profile development process is model calibration. All consumption within an average
home must sum up to the intensity extracted from billing data. This is necessary so estimates of
consumption for a piece of equipment do not exceed the actual usage in a home. Since consumption in
2015 was rather low, the household intensity increased in 2018 when normalizing weather, allowing for
increased consumption in space heating and secondary heating technologies.
Table 3-4 Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015
End Use Technology Saturation UEC
(therms)
Intensity
(therms/HH)
Usage
(dekatherms)
Space Heating Furnace - Direct Fuel 88.2% 539.7 475.7 6,719,439
Boiler - Direct Fuel 2.3% 634.0 14.3 202,114
Secondary Heating Fireplace 20.9% 102.2 21.4 302,195
Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal. 55.8% 211.9 118.3 1,671,454
Water Heater > 55 gal. 0.7% 244.1 1.8 25,481
Appliances Clothes Dryer 5.4% 28.4 1.5 21,782
Stove/Oven 8.5% 57.3 4.9 68,899
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.7% 217.7 1.6 22,042
Miscellaneous 100.0% 10.8 10.8 152,837
Total 650.4 9,186,242

Idaho Characterization
Details for the residential sector in Idaho can be found in Table 3-5 below. In 2015, there were over 70,000
households in Avista’s Washington territory that used a total of nearly 4,303,387 dekatherms, resulting in
an average use per household of 611 therms per year. This is an important number for the calibration
process.
Table 3-5 Residential Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015
Segment Households Natural Gas Use
(dekatherms)
Annual Use/Customer
(therms/HH)
Single Family 42,852 2,813,132 656
Multi-Family 3,454 142,782 413
Mobile Home 3,172 174,973 552
Low Income 21,003 1,172,501 558
Total 70,481 4,303,387 611
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 157
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 30 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-6 Residential Natural Gas Use by Segment, Idaho, 2015

Figure 3-7 shows the distribution of annual natural gas consumption by end use for an average residential
household. Space heating comprises a majority of the load at 76% followed by water heating at 18%.
Miscellaneous loads make up a very small portion of the total load, as expected.
Figure 3-7 Residential Natural Gas Use by End Use, Idaho, 2015

Avista’s 2013 GenPOP survey informed estimates of the saturation of key equipment types, which were
used to distribute usage at the technology and end use level.
Figure 3-8 presents average natural gas intensities by end use and housing type. Single family homes
consume substantially more energy in space heating. Water heating consumption is higher in single family
homes as well, due to a greater number of occupants, which increases the demand for hot water.
Single Family
66%
Multi-Family
4%
Mobile Home
3%
Low Income
27%
Space Heating
76%
Secondary
Heating
4%
Water Heating
18%
Appliances
1%
Miscellaneous
1%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 158
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 31 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-8 Residential Energy Intensity by End Use and Segment, Idaho, 2015 (Annual Therms/HH)

The market profile for an average home in the residential sector is presented in Table 3-6 below. An
important step in the profile development process is model calibration. All consumption within an average
home must sum up to the intensity extracted from billing data. This is necessary so estimates of
consumption for a piece of equipment do not exceed the actual usage in a home. Since consumption in
2015 was rather low, the household intensity increased in 2018 when normalizing weather, allowing for
increased consumption in space heating and secondary heating technologies.
Table 3-6 Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015
End Use Technology Saturation UEC
(therms)
Intensity
(therms/HH)
Usage
(dekatherms)
Space Heating Furnace - Direct Fuel 84.2% 537.1 452.0 3,185,558
Boiler - Direct Fuel 2.0% 633.6 12.9 91,149
Secondary Heating Fireplace 21.5% 102.0 21.9 154,505
Water Heating Water Heater <= 55 gal. 53.6% 202.0 108.2 762,884
Water Heater > 55 gal. 0.7% 231.9 1.7 11,736
Appliances Clothes Dryer 5.3% 30.0 1.6 11,099
Stove/Oven 9.2% 60.1 5.5 39,043
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.3% 217.7 0.6 4,139
Miscellaneous 100.0% 6.1 6.1 43,274
Total 610.6 4,303,387

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Single Family Multi-Family Mobile Home Low Income Average
Home
therms/
HH
Space Heating
Secondary Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 159
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 32 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Commercial Sector
Washington Characterization
The total number of nonresidential accounts and natural gas sales for the Washington service territory
were obtained from Avista’s customer account database.
AEG first separated the Commercial accounts from Industrial by analyzing the SIC codes and rate codes
assigned in the company’s billing system. Prior to using the data, AEG inspected individual accounts to
confirm proper assignment. This was done on the top accounts within each segment, but also via spot
checks when reviewing the database. Energy use from accounts where the customer type could not be
identified were distributed proportionally to all C&I segments.
Once the billing data was analyzed, the final segment control totals were derived by distributing the total
2015 nonresidential load to the sectors and segments according to the proportions in the billing data.
Table 3-7 below shows the final allocation of energy to each segment in the commercial sector, as well as
the energy intensity on a square-foot basis. Intensities for each segment were derived from a combination
of the 2014 CBSA and equipment saturations extracted from Avista’s database. The CBSA intensities
corresponded to spaces with lower natural gas saturations than Avista’s database, so AEG increased
intensities proportionally based on the additional presence of natural gas-consuming equipment.
Table 3-7 Commercial Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015
Segment Description
Intensity
(therms/Sq
Ft)
2015 Natural Gas
Use (dekatherms)
Office Traditional office-based businesses including finance,
insurance, law, government buildings, etc.
0.66 671,012
Restaurant Sit-down, fast food, coffee shop, food service, etc. 4.97 345,789
Retail Department stores, services, boutiques, strip malls etc. 0.92 796,535
Grocery Supermarkets, convenience stores, market, etc. 1.26 233,347
School Day care, pre-school, elementary, secondary schools 0.40 201,308
College College, university, trade schools, etc. 0.84 197,890
Health Health practitioner office, hospital, urgent care centers, etc. 1.12 436,875
Lodging Hotel, motel, bed and breakfast, etc. 0.94 272,792
Warehouse Large storage facility, refrigerated/unrefrigerated warehouse 0.75 431,752
Miscellaneous
Catchall for buildings not included in other segments,
includes churches, recreational facilities, public assembly,
correctional facilities, etc.
1.55 2,147,459
Total 1.04 5,734,759
Figure 3-9 shows each segments’ natural gas consumption as a percentage of the entire commercial sector
energy consumption. The three segments with the highest natural gas usage in 2015 are miscellaneous,
retail, and office, in descending order. As expected, the highest intensity segment is restaurant. This is
based on the high presence of food preparation equipment.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 160
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 33 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-9 Commercial Natural Gas Use by Segment, Washington, 2015

Figure 3-10 shows the distribution of natural gas consumption by end use for the entire commercial sector.
Space heating is the largest end use, followed closely by food preparation and water heating. The
miscellaneous end use is quite small, as expected.
Figure 3-10 Commercial Sector Natural Gas Use by End Use, Washington, 2015

Figure 3-11 presents average natural gas intensities by end use and segment.
Office
12%
Restaurant
6%
Retail
14%
Grocery
4%
School
3%
College
3%Health
8%
Lodging
5%
Warehouse
8%
Miscellaneous
37%
Space Heating
65%
Water Heating
21%
Food
Preparation
12%
Miscellaneous
2%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 161
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 34 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-11 Commercial Energy Usage Intensity by End Use and Segment, Washington, 2015 (Annual
Therms/Sq. Ft)

The total market profile for an average building in the commercial sector is presented in Table 3-8 below.
Avista customer account data informed the market profile by providing information on saturation of key
equipment types. Secondary data was used to develop estimates of energy intensity and square footage
and to fill in saturations for any equipment types not included in the database.
Table 3-8 Average Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, Washington, 2015
End Use Technology Saturation
EUI
(therms/
Sq Ft)
Intensity
(therms/
Sq Ft)
Usage
(dekatherms)
Heating
Furnace 54.3% 0.53 0.29 1,573,937
Boiler 33.1% 1.00 0.33 1,828,292
Unit Heater 4.7% 1.05 0.05 269,875
Water Heating Water Heater 68.7% 0.33 0.22 1,240,105
Food Preparation
Oven 11.3% 0.08 0.01 49,632
Conveyor Oven 5.6% 0.14 0.01 42,462
Double Rack Oven 5.6% 0.21 0.01 64,508
Fryer 7.3% 0.35 0.03 139,571
Broiler 12.2% 0.21 0.03 140,173
Griddle 16.4% 0.14 0.02 128,889
Range 17.9% 0.13 0.02 133,059
Steamer 2.1% 0.12 0.00 13,790
Commercial Food Prep Other 0.2% 0.03 0.00 315
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.9% 0.01 0.00 288
Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.02 0.02 109,864
Total 1.04 5,734,759

- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Average Building
Miscellaneous
Warehouse
Lodging
Health
College
School
Grocery
Retail
Office
therms/Sq Ft
- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
Restaurant
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 162
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 35 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Characterization
The total number of nonresidential accounts and natural gas sales for the Idaho service territory were
obtained from Avista’s customer account database.
Table 3-9 below shows the final allocation of energy to each segment in the commercial sector, as well as
the energy intensity on a square-foot basis. Intensities for each segment were derived from a combination
of the 2014 CBSA and equipment saturations extracted from Avista’s database. The CBSA intensities
corresponded to spaces with lower natural gas saturations than Avista’s database, so AEG increased
intensities proportionally based on the additional presence of natural gas-consuming equipment.
Table 3-9 Commercial Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015
Segment Description
Intensity
(therms/Sq
Ft)
2015 Natural Gas
Use (dekatherms)
Office Traditional office-based businesses including finance,
insurance, law, government buildings, etc.
0.65 255,885
Restaurant Sit-down, fast food, coffee shop, food service, etc. 4.91 58,036
Retail Department stores, services, boutiques, strip malls etc. 0.91 445,571
Grocery Supermarkets, convenience stores, market, etc. 1.24 97,394
School Day care, pre-school, elementary, secondary schools 0.45 203,476
College College, university, trade schools, etc. 0.83 175,787
Health Health practitioner office, hospital, urgent care centers, etc. 1.10 162,097
Lodging Hotel, motel, bed and breakfast, etc. 0.92 113,194
Warehouse Large storage facility, refrigerated/unrefrigerated warehouse 0.74 189,375
Miscellaneous
Catchall for buildings not included in other segments,
includes churches, recreational facilities, public assembly,
correctional facilities, etc.
1.53 755,805
Total 0.93 2,456,621
Figure 3-12 shows each segments’ natural gas consumption as a percentage of the entire commercial
sector energy consumption. The four segments with the highest natural gas usage in 2015 are
miscellaneous, retail, office, and warehouse, in descending order. As expected, the highest intensity
segment is restaurant. This is based on the high presence of food preparation equipment.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 163
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 36 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-12 Commercial Natural Gas Use by Segment, Idaho, 2015

Figure 3-13 shows the distribution of natural gas consumption by end use for the entire commercial sector.
Space heating is the largest end use, followed closely by food preparation and water heating. The
miscellaneous end use is quite small, as expected.
Figure 3-13 Commercial Sector Natural Gas Use by End Use, Idaho, 2015

Figure 3-14 presents average natural gas intensities by end use and segment.
Office
10%
Restaurant
2%
Retail
18%
Grocery
4%
School
8%College
7%
Health
7%
Lodging
5%
Warehouse
8%
Miscellaneous
31%
Space Heating
66%
Water Heating
22%
Food
Preparation
10%
Miscellaneous
2%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 164
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 37 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-14 Commercial Energy Usage Intensity by End Use and Segment, Idaho, 2015 (Annual
Therms/Sq. Ft)

The total market profile for an average building in the commercial sector is presented in Table 3-10 below.
Avista customer account data informed the market profile by providing information on saturation of key
equipment types. Secondary data was used to develop estimates of energy intensity and square footage
and to fill in saturations for any equipment types not included in the database.
Table 3-10 Average Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, Idaho, 2015
End Use Technology Saturation
EUI
(therms/
Sq Ft)
Intensity
(therms/
Sq Ft)
Usage
(dekatherms)
Heating
Furnace 51.2% 0.51 0.26 694,580
Boiler 36.0% 0.83 0.30 792,880
Unit Heater 4.9% 1.00 0.05 130,092
Water Heating Water Heater 69.3% 0.30 0.20 543,424
Food Preparation
Oven 12.3% 0.07 0.01 21,431
Conveyor Oven 6.1% 0.11 0.01 18,335
Double Rack Oven 6.1% 0.17 0.01 27,854
Fryer 7.8% 0.20 0.02 41,753
Broiler 13.9% 0.12 0.02 44,973
Griddle 16.4% 0.10 0.02 41,389
Range 18.4% 0.09 0.02 44,283
Steamer 2.9% 0.08 0.00 6,105
Commercial Food Prep Other 0.1% 0.03 0.00 95
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.8% 0.01 0.00 128
Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.02 0.02 49,298
Total 0.93 2,456,621

- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Average Building
Miscellaneous
Warehouse
Lodging
Health
College
School
Grocery
Retail
Office
therms/Sq Ft
- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
Restaurant
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 165
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 38 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Industrial Sector
Washington Characterization
The total sum of natural gas used in 2015 by Avista’s Washington industrial customers was 20,341
dekatherms. Like in the commercial sector, customer account data was used to allocate usage among
segments. Energy intensity was derived from AEG’s Energy Market Profiles database. Most industrial
measures are installed through custom programs, where the unit of measure is not as necessary to
estimate potential.
Table 3-11 Industrial Sector Control Totals, Washington, 2015
Segment Intensity (therms/sq ft) Natural Gas Usage
(dekatherms)
Washington Industrial 0.75 268,452
Figure 3-15 shows the distribution of annual natural gas consumption by end use for all industrial
customers. Two major sources were used to develop this consumption profile. The first was AEG’s analysis
of warehouse usage as part of the commercial sector. We begin with this prototype as a starting point to
represent non-process loads. We then added in process loads using our Energy Market Profiles database,
which summarizes usage by end use and process type. Accordingly, process is the largest overall end use
for the industrial sector, accounting for 87% of energy use. Heating is the second largest end use, and
miscellaneous, non-process industrial uses round out consumption.
Figure 3-15 Industrial Natural Gas Use by End Use, Washington, 2015

Table 3-12 shows the composite market profile for the industrial sector. Process cooling is very small and
represents niche technologies such as gas-driven absorption chillers.
Space Heating
6%
Process
87%
Miscellaneous
7%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 166
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 39 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 3-12 Average Natural Gas Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, Washington, 2015
End Use Technology Saturation
EUI
(therms/
sq ft)
Intensity
(therms/
Sq ft)
Usage
(dekatherms)
Heating
Furnace 65.3% 0.04 0.02 8,832
Boiler 3.2% 0.12 0.00 1,371
Unit Heater 23.1% 0.08 0.02 6,490
Process
Process Boiler 100.0% 0.37 0.37 131,596
Process Heating 100.0% 0.28 0.28 100,538
Process Cooling 100.0% 0.00 0.00 407
Other Process 100.0% 0.00 0.00 1,580
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.05 0.05 17,638
Total 0.75 268,452
Idaho Characterization
The total sum of natural gas used in 2015 by Avista’s Idaho industrial customers was 20,341 dekatherms.
Number of employees is calculated by dividing total usage by intensity. For the industrial sector, the unit
of measure chosen is employment.
Table 3-13 Industrial Sector Control Totals, Idaho, 2015
Segment Intensity (therms/sq ft) Natural Gas Usage
(dekatherms)
Idaho Industrial 0.72 187,203
Figure 3-16 shows the distribution of annual natural gas consumption by end use for all industrial
customers. Two major sources were used to develop this consumption profile. The first was AEG’s analysis
of warehouse usage as part of the commercial sector. We begin with this prototype as a starting point to
represent non-process loads. We then added in process loads using our Energy Market Profiles database,
which summarizes usage by end use and process type. Accordingly, process is the largest overall end use
for the industrial sector, accounting for 87% of energy use. Heating is the second largest end use, and
miscellaneous, non-process industrial uses round out consumption.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 167
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|
| 40 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 3-16 Industrial Natural Gas Use by End Use, Idaho, 2015

Table 3-14 shows the composite market profile for the industrial sector. Process cooling is very small and
represents technologies such as gas-driven absorption chillers.
Table 3-14 Average Natural Gas Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, Washington, 2015
End Use Technology Saturation
EUI
(therms/
sq ft)
Intensity
(therms/
Sq ft)
Usage
(dekatherms)
Heating
Furnace 65.3% 0.04 0.02 6,159
Boiler 3.2% 0.12 0.00 956
Unit Heater 23.1% 0.08 0.02 4,526
Process
Process Boiler 100.0% 0.35 0.35 91,768
Process Heating 100.0% 0.27 0.27 70,109
Process Cooling 100.0% 0.00 0.00 284
Other Process 100.0% 0.00 0.00 1,102
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.05 0.05 12,299
Total 0.72 187,203

Space Heating
6%
Process
87%
Miscellaneous
7%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 168

| 41 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
4
BASELINE PROJECTION
Prior to developing estimates of energy conservation potential, we developed a baseline end-use
projection to quantify what the consumption is likely to be in the future in absence of any energy
conservation programs. The savings from past programs are embedded in the forecast, but the baseline
projection assumes that those past programs cease to exist in the future. Thus, the potential analysis
captures all possible savings from future programs.
The baseline projection incorporates assumptions about:
 2015 energy consumption based on the market profiles
 Customer population growth
 Appliance/equipment standards and building codes already mandated
 Appliance/equipment purchase decisions
 Avista’s customer forecast
 Trends in fuel shares and appliance saturations and assumptions about miscellaneous natural gas
growth
Although it aligns closely, the baseline projection is not Avista’s official load forecast. Rather it was
developed as an integral component of our modeling construct to serve as the metric against which
energy conservation potentials are measured. This chapter presents the baseline projections we developed
for this study. Below, we present the baseline projections for each sector, which include projections of
annual use in dekatherms. We also present a summary across all sectors.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 169
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 42 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Overall Baseline Projection
Washington Projection
Table 4-1 and Figure 4-1 provide a summary of the baseline projection for annual use by sector for the
Avista’s Washington service territory. The large spike between 2015 and 2017 is due to the adjustment
from 2015 actual weather to 2017 actual weather (which was a colder year).
Overall, the forecast shows modest growth in natural gas consumption, driven by the residential and
commercial sectors
Table 4-1 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Washington, Selected Years (dekatherms)
Sector 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038 % Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Residential 10,773,426 10,971,347 11,416,777 11,959,820 12,706,478 17.9% 0.8%
Commercial 6,197,173 6,197,918 6,219,237 6,325,464 6,578,501 6.2% 0.3%
Industrial 251,300 248,912 242,536 232,346 213,968 -14.9% -0.8%
Total 17,221,900 17,418,177 17,878,550 18,517,630 19,498,948 13.2% 0.6%
Figure 4-1 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Washington (dekatherms)

-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
Dth
Residential Commercial Industrial Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 170
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 43 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Projection
Table 4-2 and Figure 4-2 provide a summary of the baseline projection for annual use by sector for Avista’s
Idaho service territory. The large spike between 2015 and 2017 is due to the adjustment from 2015 actual
weather to 2017 actual weather (which was a colder year and very similar to normal weather).
Overall, the forecast shows modest growth in natural gas consumption, driven roughly equally by the
residential sector. We compare change and growth rates starting in 2018 since that is the first year with
weather-normal assumptions.
Table 4-2 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Idaho, Selected Years (dekatherms)
Sector 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038 % Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Residential 5,266,179 5,379,047 5,674,999 6,039,699 6,534,309 24.1% 1.1%
Commercial 3,050,738 3,045,031 3,039,479 3,067,352 3,197,949 4.8% 0.2%
Industrial 240,261 243,071 244,254 244,959 242,820 1.1% 0.1%
Total 8,557,178 8,667,149 8,958,733 9,352,011 9,975,077 16.6% 0.8%
Figure 4-2 Baseline Projection Summary by Sector, Idaho (dekatherms)

-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
Dth
Residential Commercial Industrial Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 171
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 44 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Residential Sector
Washington Projection
Table 4-3 and Figure 4-3 present the baseline projection for natural gas at the end-use level for the
residential sector, as a whole. Overall, residential use increases from 10,773,426 dekatherms in 2018 to
12,706,478 dekatherms in 2038, an increase of 17.9%. There are two high-level factors affecting growth.
The first is a moderate increase in number of households and customers. The second is a decrease in
equipment consumption due to future standards and naturally occurring efficiency improvements (notably
the AFUE upcoming 92% furnace standard). We model gas-fired fireplaces as secondary heating. These
consume energy and may heat a space but are rarely relied on to be a primary heating technology. As
such, they are estimated to be more aesthetic and less weather-dependent. This end use grows faster than
others since new homes are more likely to install a unit, increasing fireplace stock. Miscellaneous is a very
small end use in natural gas studies and includes technologies with low penetration, such as gas
barbeques.
Table 4-3 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms)
End Use 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
%
Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Space Heating 8,412,059 8,564,268 8,896,876 9,234,926 9,676,794 15.0% 0.7%
Secondary Heating 338,235 344,941 361,556 391,980 438,702 29.7% 1.3%
Water Heating 1,749,711 1,783,530 1,867,034 2,018,550 2,241,383 28.1% 1.2%
Appliances 92,925 94,541 98,400 105,246 115,574 24.4% 1.1%
Miscellaneous 180,496 184,066 192,912 209,119 234,024 29.7% 1.3%
Total 10,773,426 10,971,347 11,416,777 11,959,820 12,706,478 17.9% 0.8%
Figure 4-3 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms)

Heating
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 172
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 45 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Projection
Table 4-4 and Figure 4-4 present the baseline projection for natural gas at the end-use level for the
residential sector, as a whole. Overall, residential use increases from 5,266,179 dekatherms in 2018 to
6,534,309 dekatherms in 2038, an increase of 24.1%.
Table 4-4 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms)
End Use 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038 % Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Space Heating 4,155,191 4,246,597 4,489,608 4,758,176 5,109,973 23.0% 1.0%
Secondary Heating 179,236 182,789 191,594 207,716 232,475 29.7% 1.3%
Water Heating 827,802 843,793 883,269 954,888 1,060,196 28.1% 1.2%
Appliances 53,227 54,141 56,314 60,149 65,893 23.8% 1.1%
Miscellaneous 50,723 51,727 54,214 58,771 65,772 29.7% 1.3%
Total 5,266,179 5,379,047 5,674,999 6,039,699 6,534,309 24.1% 1.1%
Figure 4-4 Residential Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms)

-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Space Heating
Secondary
Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 173
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 46 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Commercial Sector
Washington Projection
Annual natural gas use in the commercial sector grows 24.7% during the overall forecast horizon, starting
at 6,197,173 dekatherms in 2018, and increasing to 6,578,501 dekatherms in 2038. Table 4-5 and Figure 4-5
present the baseline projection at the end-use level for the commercial sector, as a whole. Similar to the
residential sector, market size is increasing and usage per square foot is decreasing slightly. The weather
normalization between 2015 and 2018 is also readily apparent in both AEG’s projection and Avista’s official
load forecast.
Table 4-5 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms)
End Use 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
%
Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Heating 4,196,574 4,199,252 4,221,488 4,305,032 4,481,443 6.8% 0.3%
Water Heating 1,179,697 1,171,006 1,149,673 1,133,956 1,159,165 -1.7% -0.1%
Food Preparation 710,971 716,824 734,505 767,813 812,434 14.3% 0.7%
Miscellaneous 109,932 110,837 113,571 118,662 125,460 14.1% 0.7%
Total 6,197,173 6,197,918 6,219,237 6,325,464 6,578,501 6.2% 0.3%
Figure 4-5 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms)

-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Space Heating
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Miscellaneous
Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 174
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 47 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Projection
Annual natural gas use in the commercial sector grows 24.7% during the overall forecast horizon, starting
at 3,050,738 dekatherms in 2018, and increasing to 3,197,949 dekatherms in 2038. Table 4-6 and Figure
4-6 present the baseline projection at the end-use level for the commercial sector, as a whole. Similar to
the residential sector, market size is increasing and usage per square foot is decreasing slightly. The
weather normalization between 2015 and 2018 is also readily apparent in both AEG’s projection and
Avista’s official load forecast.
Table 4-6 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms)
End Use 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
%
Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Heating 2,119,893 2,117,464 2,118,692 2,145,398 2,239,540 5.6% 0.3%
Water Heating 592,484 587,087 573,650 561,613 575,786 -2.8% -0.1%
Food Preparation 281,793 283,558 289,103 300,130 318,742 13.1% 0.6%
Miscellaneous 56,568 56,922 58,035 60,210 63,881 12.9% 0.6%
Total 3,050,738 3,045,031 3,039,479 3,067,352 3,197,949 4.8% 0.2%
Figure 4-6 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms)

-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Space Heating
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Miscellaneous
Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 175
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 48 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Industrial Sector
Washington Projection
Industrial sector usage increases throughout the planning horizon. Table 4-7 and Figure 4-7 present the
projection at the end-use level. Overall, industrial annual natural gas use decreases from 251,300
dekatherms in 2018 to 213,968 dekatherms in 2038. Growth in most end uses is consistent at around -1.0%
per year but impacts of naturally occurring efficiency lowers consumption in the space heating end use.
We applied a much smaller weather normalization factor for the industrial heating end use since
consumption is so heavily dominated by motors and process and a correlation to such small consumption
values is much lower.
Table 4-7 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms)
End Use 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038 % Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Heating 17,879 17,630 16,968 15,966 14,528 -18.7% -1.0%
Process 217,068 215,079 209,766 201,221 185,468 -14.6% -0.8%
Miscellaneous 16,353 16,203 15,803 15,159 13,972 -14.6% -0.8%
Total 251,300 248,912 242,536 232,346 213,968 -14.9% -0.8%
Figure 4-7 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington (dekatherms)

-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Space Heating
Process
Miscellaneous
Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 176
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 49 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Projection
Industrial sector usage increases throughout the planning horizon. Table 4-8 and Figure 4-8 present the
projection at the end-use level. Overall, industrial annual natural gas use increases from 21,822 dekatherms
in 2018 to 28,137 dekatherms in 2038. We applied a much smaller weather normalization factor for the
industrial heating end use since consumption is so heavily dominated by motors and process and a
correlation to such small consumption values is much lower.
Table 4-8 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms)
End Use 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038 % Change
('18-'38)
Avg.
Growth
Heating 17,094 17,200 17,058 16,806 16,475 -3.6% -0.2%
Process 207,533 210,047 211,279 212,169 210,488 1.4% 0.1%
Miscellaneous 15,635 15,824 15,917 15,984 15,857 1.4% 0.1%
Total 240,261 243,071 244,254 244,959 242,820 1.1% 0.1%
Figure 4-8 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho (dekatherms)

-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Space Heating
Process
Miscellaneous
Avista Forecast
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 177

| 50 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
5
OVERALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL
This chapter presents the measure-level energy conservation potential across all sectors for Avista’s
Washington and Idaho territories. This includes every possible measure that is considered in the measure
list, regardless of program implementation concerns. Year-by-year savings for annual energy usage are
available in the LoadMAP model and measure assumption summary, which were provided to Avista at the
conclusion of the study. Please note that all savings are provided at the customer site. This section includes
potential from the residential, commercial, and industrial analyses.
Overall Energy Efficiency Potential
Washington Potential
Table 5-1 and Figure 5-1 summarize the energy conservation savings in terms of annual energy use for all
measures for four levels of potential relative to the baseline projection. Figure 5-2 displays the energy
conservation forecasts. Savings are represented in cumulative terms, which reflect the effects of persistent
savings in prior years in addition to new savings. This allows for the reporting of annual savings impacts
as they actually impact each year of the forecast.
 Technical Potential reflects the adoption of all conservation measures regardless of cost-
effectiveness. In this potential case, efficient equipment makes up all lost opportunity installations and
all retrofit measures are installed, regardless of achievability. 2018 first-year savings are 217,202
dekatherms, or 1.3% of the baseline projection. Cumulative savings in 2028 are 3,251,362 dekatherms,
or 17.6% of the baseline. By 2038, cumulative savings reach 5,804,041 dekatherms, or 29.8% of the
baseline. Technical potential is useful as a theoretical construct, applying an upper bound to the
potential that may be realized in any one year. Other levels of potential are based off this level which
makes it an important component in the estimation of potential.
 Achievable Technical Potential refines technical potential by applying customer participation
rates that account for market barriers, customer awareness and attitudes, program maturity, and other
factors that affect market penetration of conservation measures. For the 2018-2038 CPA, ramp rates
from the Seventh Power Plan were customized for use in natural gas programs and applied. Since the
Seventh Plan does not assign ramp rates for the majority natural gas measures, we assigned these
based on similar electric technologies present in the Plan as a starting point. These ramp rates may
be found in Appendix B. 2018 first-year net savings are 86,389 dekatherms, or 0.5% of the baseline
projection. Cumulative net savings in 2028 are 2,405,890 dekatherms, or 13.0% of the baseline. By
2038 cumulative savings reach 4,901,043 dekatherms, or 25.1% of the baseline.
 UCT Achievable Economic Potential further refines achievable technical potential by applying
an economic cost-effectiveness screen. In this analysis, the cost-effectiveness is measured by the utility
cost test (UCT), which compares lifetime energy benefits to the total utility costs of delivering the
measure through a utility program, excluding monetized non-energy impacts. Avoided costs of energy
were provided by Avista. 2018 first-year savings are 61,279 dekatherms, or 0.4% of the baseline
projection. Cumulative savings in 2028 are 1,916,441 dekatherms, or 10.3% of the baseline. By 2038
cumulative savings reach 4,139,016 dekatherms, or 21.2% of the baseline.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 178
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 51 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
 TRC Achievable Economic Potential further refines achievable technical potential by applying an
economic cost-effectiveness screen. In this analysis, the cost-effectiveness is measured by the total
resource cost (TRC) test, which compares lifetime energy benefits to the total customer and utility
costs of delivering the measure through a utility program, including monetized non-energy impacts.
AEG also applied benefits for non-gas energy savings, such as electric HVAC savings for
weatherization and lighting savings for retrocommissioning. We also applied the Council’s calibration
credit to space heating savings to reflect the fact that additional fuels may be used as a supplemental
heat source within an average home and may be accounted for within the TRC. Avoided costs of
energy were provided by Avista. A 10% conservation credit was applied to these costs per the Council
methodologies. 2018 first-year savings are 33,893 dekatherms, or 0.2% of the baseline projection.
Cumulative net savings in 2028 are 1,297,679 dekatherms, or 7.0% of the baseline. By 2038 cumulative
savings reach 2,420,649 dekatherms, or 12.4% of the baseline. Potential under the TRC test is lower
than UCT due to the inclusion of full measure costs rather than the utility portion. For most measures,
these far outweigh the quantified and monetized non-energy impacts included in the TRC.
Table 5-1 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential, Washington (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Projection (Dth) 17,221,900 17,418,177 17,878,550 18,517,630 19,498,948
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 61,279 133,576 500,422 1,916,441 4,139,016
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 33,893 73,100 276,379 1,297,679 2,420,649
Achievable Technical Potential 86,389 186,065 655,389 2,405,890 4,901,043
Technical Potential 217,202 434,037 1,189,331 3,251,362 5,804,041
Cumulative Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.4% 0.8% 2.8% 10.3% 21.2%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% 7.0% 12.4%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.5% 1.1% 3.7% 13.0% 25.1%
Technical Potential 1.3% 2.5% 6.7% 17.6% 29.8%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 179
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 52 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 5-1 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential as % of Baseline Projection, Washington
(dekatherms)

Figure 5-2 Baseline Projection and Energy Efficiency Forecasts, Washington (dekatherms)

Figure 5-3 shows the cumulative UCT achievable potential by sector for the full timeframe of the analysis
as percent of total. Table 5-2 summarizes UCT achievable potential by market sector for selected years.
While the residential and commercial sectors represent the lion’s share of the overall potential in the early
years, by the mid-2020s, the residential sector share grows to a significant majority of savings potential.
Since industrial consumption is such a low percentage of the baseline once ineligible customers have been
excluded, potential for this sector makes up a lower percentage of the total. While residential and
commercial potential ramps up, industrial potential is mainly retrofit in nature, and is much flatter. This is
because process equipment is highly custom and most potential comes from controls modifications or
process adjustments rather than high-efficiency equipment upgrades. Additionally, we model
retrocommissioning to phase in evenly over the next twenty years. This measure has a maintenance
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Dth
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Baseline Forecast
Achievable Economic TRC Potential
Achievable Economic UCT Potential
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 180
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 53 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
component, and not all existing facilities may be old enough to require the tune-up immediately but will
be eligible at some point over the course of the study.
There is a notable downtick in residential savings around 2024. This is due to the impacts of the residential
forced-air furnace standard, which raises the baseline from AFUE 80% to AFUE 92%, which is a substantial
increase when the efficient option is an AFUE 95% unit.
Figure 5-3 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Washington (% of Total)

Table 5-2 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Washington, Selected Years
(dekatherms)
Sector 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Residential 39,979 88,051 345,801 1,362,078 3,107,847
Commercial 20,731 44,393 151,733 547,834 1,021,211
Industrial 569 1,132 2,887 6,528 9,957
Total 61,279 133,576 500,422 1,916,441 4,139,016

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Share off
Total
Savings
Residential Commercial Industrial
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 181
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 54 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Potential
Table 5-3 and Figure 5-4 summarize the energy conservation savings in terms of annual energy use for
all measures for four levels of potential relative to the baseline projection. Figure 5-5 displays the energy
conservation forecasts. Savings are represented in cumulative terms, which reflect the effects of persistent
savings in prior years in addition to new savings. This allows for the reporting of annual savings impacts
as they actually impact each year of the forecast.
 Technical Potential first-year savings in 2018 are 103,071 dekatherms, or 1.2% of the baseline
projection. Cumulative savings in 2028 are 1,660,809 dekatherms, or 17.8% of the baseline. By 2038,
cumulative savings reach 2,993,151 dekatherms, or 30.0% of the baseline.
 Achievable Technical Potential first-year net savings are 37,324 dekatherms, or 0.4% of the
baseline projection. Cumulative net savings in 2028 are 1,218,944 dekatherms, or 13.0% of the baseline.
By 2038 cumulative savings reach 2,514,049 dekatherms, or 25.2% of the baseline.
 UCT Achievable Economic Potential first-year savings are 26,340 dekatherms, or 0.3% of the
baseline projection. Cumulative savings in 2028 are 965,825 dekatherms, or 10.3% of the baseline. By
2038 cumulative savings reach 2,107,684 dekatherms, or 21.1% of the baseline.
 TRC Achievable Economic Potential first-year savings are 9,846 dekatherms, or 0.1% of the
baseline projection. Cumulative net savings in 2028 are 635,250 dekatherms, or 6.8% of the baseline.
By 2038 cumulative savings reach 1,204,809 dekatherms, or 12.1% of the baseline. Potential under the
TRC test is lower than UCT due to the inclusion of full measure costs rather than the utility portion.
For most measures, these far outweigh the quantified and monetized non-energy impacts included
in the TRC.
Table 5-3 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential, Idaho (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Projection (Dth) 8,557,178 8,667,149 8,958,733 9,352,011 9,975,077
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 26,340 58,352 235,414 965,825 2,107,684
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 9,846 22,432 108,249 635,250 1,204,809
Achievable Technical Potential 37,324 81,526 310,222 1,218,944 2,514,049
Technical Potential 103,071 206,214 582,638 1,660,809 2,993,151
Cumulative Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.3% 0.7% 2.6% 10.3% 21.1%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 6.8% 12.1%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.4% 0.9% 3.5% 13.0% 25.2%
Technical Potential 1.2% 2.4% 6.5% 17.8% 30.0%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 182
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 55 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 5-4 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential as % of Baseline Projection, Idaho (dekatherms)

Figure 5-5 Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential as % of Baseline Projection, Idaho (dekatherms)

Figure 5-6 shows the cumulative UCT achievable potential by sector for the full timeframe of the analysis
as percent of total. Table 5-4 summarizes UCT achievable potential by market sector for selected years.
.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Dth
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Dth
Baseline Forecast
Achievable Economic TRC Potential
Achievable Economic UCT Potential
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 183
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 56 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 5-6 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Idaho (% of Total)

Table 5-4 Cumulative UCT Achievable Economic Potential by Sector, Idaho, Selected Years
(dekatherms)
Sector 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Residential 18,354 41,176 174,333 720,226 1,615,844
Commercial 7,417 16,035 58,160 239,015 481,888
Industrial 569 1,140 2,922 6,584 9,952
Total 26,340 58,352 235,414 965,825 2,107,684

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Share off
Total
Savings
Residential Commercial Industrial
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 184

| 57 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
6
SECTOR-LEVEL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL
The previous section provided a summary of potential for the Avista territory at the state level. In this
section, we provide details for each sector.
Residential Sector
Washington Potential
Table 6-1 and Figure 6-1 summarize the energy efficiency potential for the residential sector. In 2018, UCT
achievable economic potential is 39,979 dekatherms, or 0.4% of the baseline projection. By 2028,
cumulative savings are 1,362,078 dekatherms, or 11.4% of the baseline.
Table 6-1 Residential Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Washington (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (Dth) 10,773,426 10,971,347 11,416,777 11,959,820 12,706,478
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 39,979 88,051 345,801 1,362,078 3,107,847
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 14,920 32,308 139,361 824,953 1,573,939
Achievable Technical Potential 49,298 108,161 412,455 1,653,830 3,604,150
Technical Potential 137,252 272,444 753,898 2,170,218 4,226,558
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.4% 0.8% 3.0% 11.4% 24.5%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 6.9% 12.4%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.5% 1.0% 3.6% 13.8% 28.4%
Technical Potential 1.3% 2.5% 6.6% 18.1% 33.3%
Figure 6-1 Residential Energy Conservation by Case, Washington (dekatherms)

0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Dth
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 185
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 58 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 6-2 presents forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of total annual savings and
cumulative savings. Space heating makes up a majority of potential but declines slightly in the early to
mid-2020s due to the future furnace standard.
Figure 6-2 Residential UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Washington (dekatherms, % of total)

-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Dth
Space Heating
Secondary Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Share of
Savings
Space Heating
Secondary Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 186
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 59 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 6-2 identifies the top 20 residential measures by cumulative 2018 and 2019 savings. Furnaces,
windows, tankless water heaters, and learning thermostats are the top measures.
Table 6-2 Residential Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Washington (dekatherms)
Rank Measure / Technology
2018 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
2019 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
1 Furnace - Direct Fuel - AFUE 95% 19,091 48% 41,449 47%
2 Windows - High Efficiency - Double
Pane LowE CL22 9,426 24% 18,788 21%
3 Water Heater <= 55 gal. - Instantaneous
- ENERGY STAR (UEF 0.87) 4,193 10% 10,186 12%
4 Thermostat - Wi-Fi/Interactive -
Interactive/learning thermostat (ie,
NEST)
1,344 3% 3,094 4%
5 Insulation - Floor/Crawlspace - R-30 1,132 3% 2,818 3%
6 Insulation - Ceiling, Installation - R-38
(Retro only) 734 2% 1,672 2%
7 Boiler - Direct Fuel - AFUE 96% 619 2% 1,321 2%
8 Insulation - Wall Cavity, Installation - R-
11 572 1% 1,424 2%
9 Insulation - Ducting - duct thermal
losses reduced 50% 367 1% 914 1%
10 Water Heater - Low Flow Showerhead
(1.5 GPM) - 1.5 GPM showerhead 365 1% 921 1%
11 Water Heater - Faucet Aerators - 1.5
GPM faucet 349 1% 805 1%
12 Insulation - Ceiling, Upgrade - R-49 339 1% 772 1%
13 Insulation - Basement Sidewall - R-15 332 1% 827 1%
14 ENERGY STAR Homes - Built Green spec
(NC Only) 294 1% 982 1%
15 Water Heater - Low Flow Showerhead
(2.0 GPM) - 2.0 GPM showerhead 210 1% 529 1%
16 Water Heater - Pipe Insulation -
Insulated 5' of pipe between unit and
conditioned space
190 0% 438 0%
17 ENERGY STAR Clothes Washers -
ENERGY STAR unit 175 0% 530 1%
18 Water Heater - Thermostatic Shower
Restriction Valve - Restrictor installed,
shutting off water when it is warm
149 0% 343 0%
19 Water Heater > 55 gal. - Instantaneous -
ENERGY STAR (UEF 0.87) 63 0% 154 0%
20 Thermostat - Programmable -
Programmed thermostat 29 0% 68 0%
Subtotal 39,974 100% 88,037 100%
Total Savings in Year 39,979 100% 88,051 100%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 187
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 60 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Potential
Table 6-3 and Figure 6-3 summarize the energy efficiency potential for the residential sector. In 2018, UCT
achievable economic potential is 18,354 dekatherms, or 0.3% of the baseline projection. By 2028,
cumulative savings are 720,226 dekatherms, or 11.9% of the baseline.
Table 6-3 Residential Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Idaho (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (Dth) 5,266,179 5,379,047 5,674,999 6,039,699 6,534,309
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 18,354 41,176 174,333 720,226 1,615,844
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 3,744 9,243 62,156 458,445 833,329
Achievable Technical Potential 21,723 48,708 205,345 871,461 1,876,450
Technical Potential 65,563 130,317 376,364 1,132,377 2,199,415
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.3% 0.8% 3.1% 11.9% 24.7%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 7.6% 12.8%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.4% 0.9% 3.6% 14.4% 28.7%
Technical Potential 1.2% 2.4% 6.6% 18.7% 33.7%

Figure 6-3 Residential Energy Conservation by Case, Idaho (dekatherms)

0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Dth
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 188
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 61 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 6-4 presents forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of total annual savings and
cumulative savings. Space heating makes up a majority of potential but declines slightly in the early to
mid-2020s due to the future furnace standard.
Figure 6-4 Residential UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use, Idaho
(dekatherms, % of total)

Table 6-4 identifies the top 20 residential measures by cumulative 2018 and 2019 savings. Furnaces,
tankless water heaters, windows, and insulation are the top measures.

-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Dth
Space Heating
Secondary Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Share of
Savings
Space Heating
Secondary Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 189
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 62 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 6-4 Residential Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential, Idaho
(dekatherms)
Rank Measure / Technology
2018 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
2019 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
1 Furnace - Direct Fuel - AFUE 95% 11,816 64% 25,295 61%
2 Water Heater <= 55 gal. - Instantaneous
- ENERGY STAR (UEF 0.87) 1,983 11% 4,818 12%
3 Windows - High Efficiency - Double
Pane LowE CL22 820 4% 2,044 5%
4 Insulation - Floor/Crawlspace - R-30 772 4% 1,925 5%
5 Thermostat - Wi-Fi/Interactive -
Interactive/learning thermostat (ie,
NEST)
664 4% 1,529
4%
6 Insulation - Ceiling, Installation - R-38
(Retro only) 365 2% 833 2%
7 Boiler - Direct Fuel - AFUE 96% 307 2% 653 2%
8 Insulation - Wall Cavity, Installation - R-
11 285 2% 711 2%
9 Water Heater - Low Flow Showerhead
(1.5 GPM) - 1.5 GPM showerhead 182 1% 458 1%
10 Insulation - Ducting - duct thermal
losses reduced 50% 181 1% 450 1%
11 Water Heater - Faucet Aerators - 1.5
GPM faucet 174 1% 401 1%
12 Insulation - Ceiling, Upgrade - R-49 168 1% 383 1%
13 Insulation - Basement Sidewall - R-15 166 1% 415 1%
14 ENERGY STAR Homes - Built Green spec
(NC Only) 146 1% 486 1%
15 Water Heater - Low Flow Showerhead
(2.0 GPM) - 2.0 GPM showerhead 104 1% 263 1%
16 Water Heater - Pipe Insulation -
Insulated 5' of pipe between unit and
conditioned space
100 1% 230
1%
17 Water Heater - Thermostatic Shower
Restriction Valve - Restrictor installed,
shutting off water when it is warm
74 0% 171
0%
18 Water Heater > 55 gal. - Instantaneous -
ENERGY STAR (UEF 0.87) 30 0% 73 0%
19 Thermostat - Programmable -
Programmed thermostat 14 0% 33 0%
20 Insulation - Slab Foundation - R-11 (NC
Only) 2 0% 5 0%
Subtotal 18,354 100% 41,175 100%
Total Savings in Year 18,354 100% 41,176 100%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 190
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 63 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Commercial Sector
Washington Potential
Table 6-5 and Figure 6-5 summarize the energy conservation potential for the commercial sector. In 2018,
UCT achievable economic potential is 20,731 dekatherms, or 0.3% of the baseline projection. By 2028,
cumulative savings are 547,834 dekatherms, or 8.7% of the baseline.
Table 6-5 Commercial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Washington
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (dekatherms) 6,197,173 6,197,918 6,219,237 6,325,464 6,578,501
Cumulative Savings (dekatherms)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 20,731 44,393 151,733 547,834 1,021,211
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 18,376 39,603 134,004 465,827 836,014
Achievable Technical Potential 36,328 76,386 239,042 743,027 1,283,162
Technical Potential 78,948 159,629 430,505 1,070,109 1,561,295
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.3% 0.7% 2.4% 8.7% 15.5%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.3% 0.6% 2.2% 7.4% 12.7%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.6% 1.2% 3.8% 11.7% 19.5%
Technical Potential 1.3% 2.6% 6.9% 16.9% 23.7%
Figure 6-5 Commercial Energy Conservation by Case, Washington (dekatherms)

0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Thousand
Therms
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 191
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 64 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 6-6 presents forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of total annual savings and
cumulative savings. Space heating makes up a majority of the potential early, but food preparation
equipment upgrades provide substantial savings opportunities in the later years.
Figure 6-6 Commercial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Washington (dekatherms, % of total)

Table 6-6 identifies the top 20 commercial measures by cumulative savings in 2018 and 2019. Boilers are
the top measure, food preparation and custom HVAC measures. Retrocommissioning potential is present
in the top measures but is a smaller contributor due to revised savings assumptions. RCx in the commercial
sector is a restoration of HVAC systems to their original, or better, conditions.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Dth
Space Heating
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Miscellaneous
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Share of
Savings
Space Heating
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 192
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 65 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 6-6 Commercial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Washington (dekatherms)
Rank Measure / Technology
2018 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
2019 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
1 Boiler - AFUE 97% 6,337 31% 13,775 31%
2 Fryer - ENERGY STAR 1,775 9% 3,653 8%
3
Gas Boiler - Insulate Steam
Lines/Condensate Tank - Lines and
condensate tank insulated
1,152 6% 2,262 5%
4 Gas Boiler - Hot Water Reset - Reset
control installed 1,123 5% 2,333 5%
5 HVAC - Demand Controlled Ventilation -
DCV enabled 1,033 5% 2,027 5%
6 Insulation - Roof/Ceiling - R-38 850 4% 2,079 5%
7 Water Heater - TE 0.94 838 4% 2,001 5%
8 Steam Trap Maintenance - Cleaning and
maintenance 820 4% 1,620 4%
9 Gas Boiler - Insulate Hot Water Lines -
Insulated water lines 770 4% 1,512 3%
10 Insulation - Wall Cavity - R-21 761 4% 1,862 4%
11 Retrocommissioning - HVAC - Optimized
HVAC flow and controls 661 3% 1,298 3%
12 Water Heater - Central Controls -
Central water boiler controls installed 573 3% 1,137 3%
13 Gas Boiler - High Turndown - Turndown
control installed 526 3% 1,091 2%
14
Strategic Energy Management - Energy
management system installed and
programmed
412 2% 820 2%
15 Double Rack Oven - FTSC Qualified
(>50% Cooking Efficiency) 405 2% 836 2%
16 Kitchen Hood - DCV/MUA - DCV/HUA
vent hood 329 2% 656 1%
17 Oven - ENERGY STAR (>42% Baking
Efficiency) 311 2% 669 2%
18
Building Automation System -
Automation system installed and
programmed
307 1% 765 2%
19 Gas Boiler - Stack Economizer -
Economizer installed 282 1% 593 1%
20 Water Heater - Faucet Aerator - 1.5
GPM faucet 219 1% 453 1%
Subtotal 19,485 94% 41,442 93%
Total Savings in Year 20,731 100% 44,393 100%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 193
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 66 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Potential
Table 6-7 and Figure 6-7 summarize the energy conservation potential for the commercial sector. In 2018,
UCT achievable economic potential is 7,417 dekatherms, or 0.2% of the baseline projection. By 2028,
cumulative savings are 239,015 dekatherms, or 7.8% of the baseline.
Table 6-7 Commercial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Idaho
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (dekatherms) 3,050,738 3,045,031 3,039,479 3,067,352 3,197,949
Cumulative Savings (dekatherms)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 7,417 16,035 58,160 239,015 481,888
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 5,529 12,039 43,123 169,784 360,683
Achievable Technical Potential 14,871 31,349 101,064 338,527 623,867
Technical Potential 36,549 73,959 201,366 517,401 777,530
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.5% 1.9% 7.8% 15.1%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.4% 1.4% 5.5% 11.3%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.5% 1.0% 3.3% 11.0% 19.5%
Technical Potential 1.2% 2.4% 6.6% 16.9% 24.3%
Figure 6-7 Commercial Energy Conservation by Case, Idaho (dekatherms)

Figure 6-8 presents forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of total annual savings and
cumulative savings. Space heating makes up a majority of the potential early, but food preparation
equipment upgrades provide substantial savings opportunities in the later years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Thousand
Therms
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 194
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 67 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 6-8 Commercial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use, Idaho
(dekatherms, % of total)

Table 6-8 identifies the top 20 commercial measures by cumulative savings in 2018 and 2019. Boilers are
the top measure, followed by custom HVAC measures and food preparation. Retrocommissioning
potential is present in the top measures but is a smaller contributor due to revised savings assumptions.
RCx in the commercial sector is a restoration of HVAC systems to their original, or better, conditions.
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Dth
Space Heating
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Miscellaneous
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Share of
Savings
Space Heating
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 195
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 68 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 6-8 Commercial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential, Idaho
(dekatherms)
Rank Measure / Technology
2018 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
2019 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
1 Boiler - AFUE 97% 1,511 20% 3,456 22%
2
Gas Boiler - Insulate Steam
Lines/Condensate Tank - Lines and
condensate tank insulated
681 9% 1,339 8%
3 Fryer - ENERGY STAR 593 8% 1,220 8%
4 HVAC - Demand Controlled Ventilation -
DCV enabled 580 8% 1,139 7%
5 Insulation - Roof/Ceiling - R-38 478 6% 1,171 7%
6 Gas Boiler - Insulate Hot Water Lines -
Insulated water lines 456 6% 895 6%
7 Insulation - Wall Cavity - R-21 416 6% 1,019 6%
8 Steam Trap Maintenance - Cleaning and
maintenance 407 5% 805 5%
9 Retrocommissioning - HVAC - Optimized
HVAC flow and controls 266 4% 523 3%
10
Strategic Energy Management - Energy
management system installed and
programmed
265 4% 527 3%
11 Water Heater - TE 0.94 198 3% 505 3%
12 Double Rack Oven - FTSC Qualified
(>50% Cooking Efficiency) 196 3% 405 3%
13 Kitchen Hood - DCV/MUA - DCV/HUA
vent hood 193 3% 384 2%
14 Thermostat - Programmable -
Programmable thermostat installed 189 3% 370 2%
15
Building Automation System -
Automation system installed and
programmed
159 2% 396 2%
16 Oven - ENERGY STAR (>42% Baking
Efficiency) 149 2% 321 2%
17 Water Heater - Central Controls -
Central water boiler controls installed 91 1% 190 1%
18 Gas Boiler - Maintenance - General
cleaning and maintenance 76 1% 151 1%
19 Gas Boiler - Hot Water Reset - Reset
control installed 73 1% 163 1%
20 Gas Furnace - Maintenance - General
cleaning and maintenance 67 1% 132 1%
Subtotal 7,043 95% 15,111 94%
Total Savings in Year 7,417 100% 16,035 100%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 196
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 69 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Industrial Sector
Washington Potential
Table 6-9 and Figure 6-9 summarize the energy conservation potential for the core industrial sector. In
2018, UCT achievable economic potential is 569dekatherms, or 0.2% of the baseline projection. By 2028,
cumulative savings reach 6,528 dekatherms, or 2.8% of the baseline. Industrial potential is a lower
percentage of overall baseline compared to the residential and commercial sectors. While large, custom
process optimization and controls measures are present in potential, these are not applicable to all
processes which limits potential at the technical level. Additionally, since the largest customers were
excluded from this analysis due to their status as transport-only customers making them ineligible to
participate in energy efficiency programs for the utility, the remaining customers are smaller and tend to
have lower process end-use shares, further lowering industrial potential. As seen in the figure below,
industrial potential is substantially lower due to the smaller sector size and process uses.
Table 6-9 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Washington (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (dekatherms) 251,300 248,912 247,616 232,346 213,968
Cumulative Savings (dekatherms)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 569 1,132 1,709 6,528 9,957
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 597 1,188 1,785 6,899 10,696
Achievable Technical Potential 762 1,518 2,288 9,034 13,731
Technical Potential 1,002 1,964 2,942 11,035 16,187
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 2.8% 4.7%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 3.0% 5.0%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 3.9% 6.4%
Technical Potential 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 4.7% 7.6%
Figure 6-9 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential, Washington (dekatherms)

0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2018 2019 2020 2028 2038
Dth
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 197
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 70 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 6-10 presents forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of total annual savings and
cumulative savings.
Figure 6-10 Industrial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use,
Washington (dekatherms, % of total)

Table 6-10 identifies the top 20 industrial measures by cumulative 2018 and 2019 savings. Strategic energy
management and retrocommissioning are top measures in the industrial sector. Strategic energy
management of industrial process applications is the highest measure by total savings. For smaller
industrial customers, this measure typically involves a cohort of between five to ten customers who form
a working group facilitated by an energy management expert. One or more employees at each facility are
designated an energy conservation “champion” who work to integrate efficient energy-consuming
behavior into the company’s culture. Many of these measures are more custom in nature, such as strategic
energy management and retrocommissioning. These results in behavior-based and low-cost/no-cost
measures but result in larger custom projects. We estimate that this potential will be captured within these
measures/delivery mechanisms.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Dth
Space Heating
Process
Miscellaneous
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Share of
Savings
Space Heating
Process
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 198
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 71 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com

Table 6-10 Industrial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential,
Washington (dekatherms)
Rank Measure / Technology
2018 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
2019 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
1
Strategic Energy Management - Energy
management system installed and
programmed
191 34% 380 34%
2 Retrocommissioning - Optimized
process design and controls 129 23% 255 23%
3 Gas Boiler - High Turndown - Turndown
control installed 82 14% 162 14%
4 Gas Boiler - Hot Water Reset - Reset
control installed 68 12% 142 12%
5 Steam Trap Maintenance - Cleaning and
maintenance 49 9% 97 9%
6 Gas Boiler - Maintenance - General
cleaning and maintenance 41 7% 76 7%
7
Gas Boiler - Burner Control
Optimization - Optimized burner
controls
4 1% 9 1%
8 Gas Furnace - Maintenance - General
cleaning and maintenance 3 1% 6 1%
9 Unit Heater - Infrared Radiant 2 0% 4 0%
10 Boiler - AFUE 97% 1 0% 3 0%
11 Furnace - AFUE 96% 0 0% 0 0%
12 Insulation - Roof/Ceiling - R-38 0 0% 0 0%
13 Insulation - Wall Cavity - R-21 0 0% 0 0%
14 Insulation - Ducting - 50% reduction in
thermal losses 0 0% 0 0%
15 HVAC - Duct Repair and Sealing - 30%
reduced duct leaking 0 0% 0 0%
16 Windows - High Efficiency - U-.22 or
better 0 0% 0 0%
17 HVAC - Demand Controlled Ventilation -
DCV enabled 0 0% 0 0%
18 Gas Boiler - Stack Economizer -
Economizer installed 0 0% 0 0%
Subtotal 569 100% 1,132 100%
Total Savings in Year 569 100% 1,132 100%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 199
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 72 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Potential
Table 6-11 and Figure 6-11 summarize the energy conservation potential for the core industrial sector. In
2018, UCT achievable economic potential is 569 dekatherms, or 0.2% of the baseline projection. By 2028,
cumulative savings reach 6,584 dekatherms, or 2.7% of the baseline. Industrial potential is a lower
percentage of overall baseline compared to the residential and commercial sectors. While large, custom
process optimization and controls measures are present in potential, these are not applicable to all
processes which limits potential at the technical level. Additionally, since the largest customers were
excluded from this analysis due to their status as transport-only customers making them ineligible to
participate in energy efficiency programs for the utility, the remaining customers are smaller and tend to
have lower process end-use shares, further lowering industrial potential. As seen in the figure below,
industrial potential is substantially lower due to the smaller sector size and process uses.
Table 6-11 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential Summary, Idaho (dekatherms)
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (dekatherms) 240,261 243,071 244,930 244,959 242,820
Cumulative Savings (dekatherms)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 569 1,140 1,718 6,584 9,952
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 573 1,150 1,738 7,021 10,797
Achievable Technical Potential 730 1,469 2,225 8,956 13,732
Technical Potential 959 1,939 2,921 11,030 16,205
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 2.7% 4.1%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 2.9% 4.4%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 3.7% 5.7%
Technical Potential 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 4.5% 6.7%
Figure 6-11 Industrial Energy Conservation Potential, Idaho (dekatherms)

Figure 6-12 presents forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of total annual savings and
cumulative savings.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2018 2019 2020 2028 2038
Dth
UCT Achievable Economic TRC Achievable Economic Achievable Technical Technical
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 200
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 73 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Figure 6-12 Industrial UCT Achievable Economic Potential – Cumulative Savings by End Use, Idaho
(dekatherms, % of total)

Table 6-12 identifies the top 20 industrial measures by cumulative 2018 and 2019 savings. Strategic energy
management and retrocommissioning are top measures in the industrial sector. Strategic energy
management of industrial process applications is the highest measure by total savings. For smaller
industrial customers, this measure typically involves a cohort of between five to ten customers who form
a working group facilitated by an energy management expert. One or more employees at each facility are
designated an energy conservation “champion” who work to integrate efficient energy-consuming
behavior into the company’s culture. Many of these measures are more custom in nature, such as strategic
energy management and retrocommissioning. These results in behavior-based and low-cost/no-cost
measures but result in larger custom projects. We estimate that this potential will be captured within these
measures/delivery mechanisms.

-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Dth
Space Heating
Process
Miscellaneous
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Share of
Savings
Space Heating
Process
Miscellaneous
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 201
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 74 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Table 6-12 Industrial Top Measures in 2018 and 2019, UCT Achievable Economic Potential, Idaho
(dekatherms)
Rank Measure / Technology
2018 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
2019 Cumulative
Potential Savings
(dekatherms)
% of
Total
1
Strategic Energy Management - Energy
management system installed and
programmed
197 35% 397 35%
2 Retrocommissioning - Optimized
process design and controls 123 22% 244 21%
3 Gas Boiler - High Turndown - Turndown
control installed 78 14% 154 14%
4 Gas Boiler - Hot Water Reset - Reset
control installed 65 11% 135 12%
5 Steam Trap Maintenance - Cleaning and
maintenance 47 8% 94 8%
6 Gas Boiler - Maintenance - General
cleaning and maintenance 39 7% 72 6%
7 Retrocommissioning - Optimized HVAC
flow and controls 10 2% 20 2%
8
Gas Boiler - Burner Control
Optimization - Optimized burner
controls
4 1% 9 1%
9 Gas Furnace - Maintenance - General
cleaning and maintenance 3 1% 5 0%
10 Unit Heater - Infrared Radiant 2 0% 6 0%
11 Boiler - AFUE 97% 1 0% 3 0%
12 Furnace - AFUE 96% 0 0% 0 0%
13 Insulation - Roof/Ceiling - R-38 0 0% 0 0%
14 Insulation - Wall Cavity - R-21 0 0% 0 0%
15 Insulation - Ducting - 50% reduction in
thermal losses 0 0% 0 0%
16 HVAC - Duct Repair and Sealing - 30%
reduced duct leaking 0 0% 0 0%
17 Windows - High Efficiency - U-.22 or
better 0 0% 0 0%
18 HVAC - Demand Controlled Ventilation -
DCV enabled 0 0% 0 0%
Subtotal 569 100% 1,140 100%
Total Savings in Year 569 100% 1,140 100%

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 202
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 75 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Incorporating the Total Resource Cost Test
In addition to the UCT, LoadMAP has been configured to evaluate potential using the TRC. This test focuses
on impacts for both the utility and customer, which is an alternative frame of reference from the UCT. The
TRC includes the full measure cost (incremental for lost opportunities, full cost for retrofits), which is
generally substantially higher than the incentive cost included within the UCT. The TRC does include one
additional value stream that the UCT does not, non-energy impacts. This test is fully incorporated into
LoadMAP and prepared for Avista to use in the event the Company feels a “fully balanced” TRC is
identified.
In accordance with Council methodology, these impacts must be quantified and monetized, meaning
impacts such as personal comfort, which are difficult to assign a value to, are not included. What this does
include are additional savings including water reductions due to low-flow measures or reduced detergent
requirements to wash clothes in a high-efficiency clothes washer. AEG has incorporated these impacts as
they are available in source documentation, such as RTF UES workbooks.
Some impacts are already included within Avista’s avoided costs. These include the 10% conservation
credit applied by the Council for infrastructure benefits of efficiency. The future prices of carbon are also
included. Per TRC methodology, as these impacts are already captured within the avoided costs provided
to AEG, we did not incorporate them a second time outside the costs.
Another set of impacts captured within Council methodology include the Simplified Energy Enthalpy
Model (SEEM) “calibration credits”. The Council calibrates this energy model using metered end-use
energy consumption to reflect actual conditions. While these are technically energy impacts, they are not
captured as a benefit to a natural-gas utility as they are instead an impact on the customer. The Council
then assumes the difference between the uncalibrated and calibrated models represents the impacts of
secondary heating by different fuels present in the home. In the Council’s case, these could be small gas
heaters or wood stoves present alongside an electric forced-air furnace. For Avista, AEG followed a similar
methodology, but instead applied the calibration percent impact to estimated gas-heating savings rather
than electric. To monetize these impacts, we incorporated the latest Mid C energy prices, including carbon
impacts, from the RTF’s website, adjusted for differences in efficiency between electric and natural gas
heating equipment (e.g. converted therm savings from an AFUE 80% baseline to kWh savings from an EF
0.97 resistance heater baseline). We applied these impacts to many non-equipment measures with space
heating impacts in all sectors as well as to residential space heating equipment, which was the primary
use for the Council.
Finally, AEG identified additional non-gas end uses which may be impacted by gas efficiency measures.
These include impacts from other end uses, such as cooling savings due to efficient shell measures or
lighting savings due to a comprehensive retrocommissioning or strategic energy management program.
Like the calibration credit above, these do not have a benefit to a natural-gas utility but do to the customer.
It is worth a note of caution when incorporating these impacts. Certain comprehensive building measures,
such as retrocommissioning and strategic energy management have very large electric impacts that may
be greater than the original estimated gas impacts. LED lighting is a very popular technology within
electric utility-programs and can have massive impacts. Commercial HVAC retrocommissioning (RCx)
includes both cooling and ventilation electric impacts, which could outweigh the gas space heating
impacts. To realize these cost-effective savings, Avista would need to offer a comprehensive RCx program
affecting both electric and natural gas end uses.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 203

| 76 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
7
COMPARISON WITH CURRENT PROGRAMS
One of the goals of this study is to inform targets for future programs, including the current calendar-
year, 2018. As such, AEG conducted an in-depth comparison of the CPA’s 2018 UCT Achievable Economic
Potential with Avista’s 2017 accomplishments and 2018 plan at the sector-level. This involved assigning
each measure within the CPA to an existing Avista program. C
Washington Comparison with 2017 Programs and 2018 Plan
Residential Sector
Table 7-1 summarizes Avista’s 2017 residential accomplishments, 2018 plan, and the 2018 UCT Achievable
Economic potential estimates from LoadMAP. The LoadMAP estimate of 39,979 dekatherms is lower than
Avista’s 2017 accomplishments at 62,156 dekatherms and lower than Avista’s 2018 plan at 50,402 therms.
Table 7-1 Comparison of Avista’s Washington Residential Programs with 2018 UCT Achievable
Economic Potential (dekatherms)
Program Group
2017
Accomplishments
(dekatherms)
2018 Plan
(dekatherms)
LoadMAP
2018 UCT
(dekatherms)
Furnace 40,003 28,600 19,091
Boiler 453 0 619
Water Heater 6,621 1,042 4,257
ENERGY STAR Homes 122 365 294
Smart Thermostat 4,884 2,340 1,344
Programmable Thermostat 0 55 0
Ceiling Insulation 540 280 1,072
Wall Insulation 218 240 904
Floor Insulation 66 266 1,135
Doors 40 63 0
Windows 8,911 15,940 9,426
Air Sealing 207 112 0
Duct Insulation 30 144 367
Duct Sealing 48 0 0
Showerheads 0 954 575
Miscellaneous 14 0 893
Program Total 62,156 50,402 39,979
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 204
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 77 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
The main reason that potential is lower is that the baseline assumed for forced-air furnaces is adjusted in
the following ways.
 The 2015 Washington State Energy Code (WSEC) prescribes very efficient building shell requirements,
which substantially reduces the consumption of a new home. Since every new home requires a lost
opportunity purchasing decision when constructed, they make up a large portion of the potential. The
lower unit energy savings in new homes due to lower heating requirements reduces the unit energy
savings (UES) from this measure.
 Another reason is the incorporation of a market baseline, which assumes not everyone purchases the
minimum federal standard in the absence of efficiency programs. This results in approximately 20%
of customers purchasing an AFUE 90% and 5% purchasing an AFUE 92% in the baseline, which reduces
the average unit energy consumption upon which savings for an AFUE 95% are based,
Additional descriptions for other measure differences are provided below:
 Potential for ENERGY STAR Homes has been reduced due to WSEC 2015. The efficient shell
requirements lower space heating savings from the prior estimate, which was made before this code
went into effect.
Commercial and Industrial Sectors
Table 7-2 summarizes Avista’s 2017 commercial and industrial accomplishments, 2018 plan, and the 2018
UCT Achievable Economic potential estimates from LoadMAP. The LoadMAP estimate of 21,300
dekatherms is very similar to Avista’s 2017 accomplishments at 22,405 dekatherms and 2018 plan at 20,251
dekatherms.
Table 7-2 Comparison of Avista’s Washington Nonresidential Accomplishments with 2018 UCT
Achievable Economic Potential (dekatherms)
Program Group
2017
Accomplishments
(dekatherms)
2018 Plan
(dekatherms)
LoadMAP
2018 UCT
(dekatherms)
HVAC 14,000 3,214 11,925
Weatherization 1,657 2,080 1,694
Appliances 380 0 838
Food Preparation 3,987 4,956 2,761
Custom 2,381 10,000 4,082
Program Total 22,405 20,251 21,300

The following are key drivers in commercial potential:
 The HVAC category includes both efficient equipment (e.g. boilers) as well as custom HVAC measures.
The 2018 Plan includes the latter in the “Custom” category, but 2017 accomplishments imply that these
are realized through the HVAC program group.
 Fryer and convection oven potential is substantial due to the high gas consumption of restaurants
and Avista’s current success with this program. This measure was heavily accelerated in LoadMAP.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 205
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 78 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho Comparison with 2017 Programs and 2018 Plan
Residential Sector
Table 7-3 summarizes Avista’s 2017 residential accomplishments, 2018 plan, and the 2018 UCT Achievable
Economic potential estimates from LoadMAP. The LoadMAP estimate of 18,354 dekatherms is very similar
to Avista’s 2017 accomplishments at 18,158 dekatherms and Avista’s 2018 plan at 17,311 therms.
Table 7-3 Comparison of Avista’s Idaho Residential Programs with 2018 UCT Achievable Economic
Potential (dekatherms)
Program Group
2017
Accomplishments
(dekatherms)
2018 Plan
(dekatherms)
LoadMAP
2018 UCT
(dekatherms)
Furnace 12,783 11,716 11,816
Boiler 134 0 307
Water Heater 1,775 2,077 2,014
ENERGY STAR Homes 41 41 146
Smart Thermostat 1,628 1,040 664
Programmable Thermostat 0 0 0
Ceiling Insulation 129 56 534
Wall Insulation 17 102 452
Floor Insulation 29 119 774
Doors 11 19 0
Windows 1,407 1,708 820
Air Sealing 87 48 0
Duct Insulation 56 153 181
Duct Sealing 59 0 0
Showerheads 0 233 286
Miscellaneous 2 0 362
Program Total 18,158 17,311 18,354
Potential for most measures is very similar to both accomplishments and the 2018 plan. In contrast to
Washington, Idaho’s energy code does not cannibalize a large portion of the HVAC-related savings,
resulting in a much steadier range of potential.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 206
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 79 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
Commercial and Industrial Sectors
Table 7-4 summarizes Avista’s 2017 commercial and industrial accomplishments, 2018 plan, and the 2018
UCT Achievable Economic potential estimates from LoadMAP. The LoadMAP estimate of 7,986 dekatherms
is substantially higher than Avista’s 2017 accomplishments at 3,987 dekatherms but similar to the 2018
plan at 7,336 dekatherms.
Table 7-4 Comparison of Avista’s Idaho Nonresidential Accomplishments with 2018 UCT
Achievable Economic Potential (dekatherms)
Program Group
2017
Accomplishments
(dekatherms)
2018 Plan
(dekatherms)
LoadMAP
2018 UCT
(dekatherms)
HVAC 1,390 805 3,769
Weatherization 874 940 941
Appliances 35 0 198
Food Preparation 1,359 1,490 1,045
Custom 0 4,100 2,033
Program Total 3,657 7,336 7,986

This is due to a “ramp up” period between 2017 and 2018 resulting from a recent-year restart of programs.
Similar to Washington, many custom HVAC measures were included within the HVAC category to reflect
actual accomplishments.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 207
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 80 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
8
COMPARISON WITH CURRENT PROGRAMS
One of the goals of this study is to inform targets for future programs, including the current calendar-
year, 2018. As such, AEG conducted an in-depth comparison of the CPA’s 2018 UCT Achievable Economic
Potential with Avista’s 2017 accomplishments and 2018 plan at the sector-level. This involved assigning
each measure within the CPA to an existing Avista program. C
Residential Comparison with 2016 CPA
Table 8-1 compares first-year residential potential between Avista’s 2016 and 2018 Natural Gas CPAs
conducted by AEG. In both cases, first-year potential is estimated to be higher.
Table 8-1 Comparison of Avista’s Residential UCT Achievable Economic Potential between the 2016
and 2018 CPAs (dekatherms)
Program Group Washington
2017 2018
Idaho
2017 2018
Furnace 9,524 19,091 3,209 11,816
Boiler 251 619 112 307
Water Heater 718 4,257 254 2,014
ENERGY STAR Homes 0 294 0 146
Smart Thermostat 445 1,344 213 664
Programmable Thermostat 0 0 0 0
Ceiling Insulation 1,218 1,072 577 534
Wall Insulation 0 904 0 452
Floor Insulation 0 1,135 0 774
Doors 0 0 0 0
Windows 8,491 9,426 4,044 820
Air Sealing 0 0 0 0
Duct Insulation 0 367 0 181
Duct Sealing 939 0 0 0
Showerheads 1,627 575 736 286
Miscellaneous 4,387 893 1,992 362
CPA Total 27,598 39,979 11,138 18,354
Increases in potential are due to a few factors:
 The update in ramp rates to Seventh Plan values. Some of these start as high as 40% achievability in
the first year.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 208
2018 Avista Utilities Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment|

| 81 Applied Energy Group • www.appliedenergygroup.com
 Due to program accomplishments, particularly in HVAC. AEG accelerated key measures such as
furnace upgrades, to the faster ramp rates to align with program success.
 Measure savings, costs, and/or incentives have been updated for some measures, resulting in
additional cost-effective measures. New measures include ENERGY STAR homes as well as wall and
floor insulation.
Nonresidential Comparison with 2016 CPA
Table 8-2 compares first-year nonresidential potential between Avista’s 2016 and 2018 Natural Gas CPAs
conducted by AEG. In Washington, the potential is similar, while it is lower in Idaho.
Table 8-2 Comparison of Avista’s Nonresidential UCT Achievable Economic Potential between the
2016 and 2018 CPAs (dekatherms)
Program Group Washington
2017 2018
Idaho
2017 2018
HVAC 8,065 11,925 3,400 3,769
Weatherization 1,636 1,694 540 941
Appliances 953 838 453 198
Food Preparation 577 2,761 228 1,045
Custom 12,130 4,082 4,997 2,033
CPA Total 23,362 21,300 9,618 7,986
In addition to changes in ramp rates, differences in potential are due to a few factors:
 HVAC potential is similar to the previous study but accelerated slightly.
 Food preparation potential has been heavily accelerated.
 Potential has been lowered in the “Custom” category for both states due the revisions in the
commercial retrocommissioning savings assumptions. The Seventh Plan assumed a 15% heating
energy savings from commercial retrocommissioning programs. When AEG inspected this assumption
further, we discovered that the conversion from an assumption of 5% of building use was being
converted using a heating percentage of use of roughly 33%, much lower than AEG’s market
characterization analysis. By applying an Avista-specific conversion, AEG calculated a savings of closer
to 7% of heating use.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 209
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 210

Applied Energy Group, Inc.
500 Ygnacio Valley Road, Suite 250
Walnut Creek, CA 94596
P: 510.982.3525
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 211
APPENDIX – CHAPTER 3
APPENDIX 3.2: ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES OVERVIEW
(OREGON JURISDICTION ONLY)
The methodology for determining avoided costs from reduced incremental natural gas usage considers
commodity and variable transportation costs only. These avoided cost streams do not include environmental
externality costs related to the gathering, transmission, distribution or end-use of natural gas.
Per traditional economic theory and industry practice, an environmental externality factor is typically added
to the avoided cost when there is an opportunity to displace traditional supply-side resources with an
alternative resource with no adverse environmental impact.
REGULATORY GUIDANCE
The Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) issued Order 93-965 (UM-424) to address how utilities
should consider the impact of environmental externalities in planning for future energy resources. The
Order required analysis on the potential natural gas cost impacts from emitting carbon dioxide (CO2) and
nitric-oxide (NOx).
The OPUC’s Order No. 07-002 in Docket UM 1056 (Investigation Into Integrated Resource Planning)
established the following guideline for the treatment of environmental costs used by energy utilities that
evaluate demand-side and supply-side energy choices:
UM 1056, Guideline 8 - Environmental Costs
“Utilities should include, in their base-case analyses, the regulatory compliance costs they expect
for carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SO2), and mercury (Hg) emissions.
Utilities should analyze the range of potential CO2 regulatory costs in Order No. 93-695, from $0
- $40 (1990$). In addition, utilities should perform sensitivity analysis on a range of reasonably
possible cost adders for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and mercury (Hg), if
applicable.
In June 2008, the OPUC issued Order 08-338 (UM1302) which revised UM1056, Guideline 8. The revised
guideline requires the utility should construct a base case portfolio to reflect what it considers to be the
most likely regulatory compliance future for the various emissions. Additionally the guideline requires the
utility to develop several compliance scenarios ranging from the present CO2 regulatory level to the upper
reaches of credible proposals and each scenario should include a time profile of CO2 costs. The utility is
also required to include a “trigger point” analysis in which the utility must determine at what level of carbon
costs its selection of portfolio resources would be significantly different.
ANALYSIS
Unlike electric utilities, environmental cost issues rarely impact a natural gas utility's supply-side resource
options. This is because the only supply-side energy resource is natural gas. The utility cannot choose
between say "dirty" coal-fired generation and "clean" wind energy sources. The supply-side implication of
environmental externalities generally relates to combustion of fuel to move or compress natural gas.
Avista’s direct gas distribution system infrastructure relies solely on the upstream line pressure of the
interstate pipeline transportation network to distribute natural gas to its customers and thus does not directly
combust fuels that result in any CO2, NOx, SO2, or Hg emissions.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 212
APPENDIX – CHAPTER 3

Upstream gas system infrastructure (pipelines, storage facilities, and gathering systems), however, do
produce CO2 emissions via compressors used to pressurize and move natural gas. Accessing CO2 emissions
data on these upstream activities to perform detailed meaningful analysis is challenging. In the 2009 Natural
Gas IRP there was significant momentum regarding GHG legislation and the movement towards the
creation of carbon cap and trade markets or tax structure. Additionally, the pricing level of the framework
has been greatly reduced. Whichever structure ultimately gets implemented, Avista believes the cost pass
through mechanisms for upstream gas system infrastructure will not make a difference in supply-side
resource selection although the amount of cost pass through could differ widely.
Table 3.2.1 summarizes a range of environmental cost adders we believe capture several compliance futures
including our expected scenario. The CO2 cost adders reflect outlooks we obtained from one of our
consultants, and following discussion and feedback from the TAC, have been incorporated into our
Expected, Low Growth/High Price, and Alternate Planning Standard portfolios.
The guidelines also call for a trigger point analysis that reflects a “turning point” at which an alternate
resource portfolio would be selected at different carbon cost adders levels. Because natural gas is the only
supply resource applicable to LDC’s any alternate resource portfolio selection would be a result of delivery
methods of natural gas to customers. Conceptually, there could be differing levels of cost adders applicable
to pipeline transported supply versus in service territory LNG storage gas. From a practical standpoint
however, the differences in these relative cost adders would be very minor and would not change supply-
side resource selection regardless of various carbon cost adder levels. We do acknowledge there is influence
to the avoided costs which would impact the cost effectiveness of demand-side measures in the DSM
business planning process.
CONSERVATON COST ADVANTAGE
For this IRP, we also incorporated a 10 percent environmental externality factor into our assessment of the
cost-effectiveness of existing demand-side management programs. Our assessment of prospective demand-
side management opportunities is based on an avoided cost stream that includes this 10 percent factor.
Environmental externalities were evaluated in the IRP by adding the cost per therm equivalent of the
externality cost values to supply-side resources as described in OPUC Order No. 93-965. Avista found that
the environmental cost adders had no impact on the company’s supply-side choices, although they did
impact the level of demand-side measures that could be cost-effective to acquire.
REGULATORY FILING
Avista will file revised cost-effectiveness limits (CELs) based upon the updated avoided costs available
from this IRP process within the prescribed regulatory timetable.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 213
APPENDIX – CHAPTER 3
TABLE 3.2.1: ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES COST ADDER ANALYSIS (2015$)

2020 2025 2030 2035
$/short ton $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2
$/lb $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
NOx Adder
$/therm $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
$/short ton $ 216 $ 216 $ 216 $ 216
$/lb $ 0.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.11
lbs/therm $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01
NOx Adder
$/therm $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
$/ton $ - $ 23.36 $ 32.72 $ 45.91
$/lb $ - $ 0.012 $ 0.016 $ 0.023
lbs/therm 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
CO2 Adder
$/therm $ - $ 0.14 $ 0.19 $ 0.27
2020 2025 2030 2035
$/short ton $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2
$/lb $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
NOx Adder
$/therm $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
$/short ton $ 216 $ 216 $ 216 $ 216
$/lb $ 0.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.11
lbs/therm $ 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
NOx Adder
$/therm $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
$/ton $ 118.26 $ 120.17 $ 119.88 $ 120.01
$/lb $ 0.059 $ 0.060 $ 0.060 $ 0.060
lbs/therm 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
CO2 Adder
$/therm $ 0.69 $ 0.70 $ 0.70 $ 0.70
2020 2025 2030 2035
$/short ton $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2
$/lb $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
NOx Adder
$/therm $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
$/short ton $ 216 $ 216 $ 216 $ 216
$/lb $ 0.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.11
lbs/therm 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
NOx Adder
$/therm $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
$/ton $ 11.54 $ 12.19 $ 12.62 $ 12.86
$/lb $ 0.006 $ 0.006 $ 0.006 $ 0.006
lbs/therm 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
CO2 Adder
$/therm $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.07
CO
2
NO
x

–

A
n
n
u
a
l
Lo
w

C
a
r
b
o
n

L
o
w

N
O
x
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
r
b
o
n

C
a
s
e
NO
x

–

A
n
n
u
a
l
CO
2
Hi
g
h

C
a
r
b
o
n

C
a
s
e
NO
x

–

A
n
n
u
a
l
CO
2
NO
x

–

S
e
a
s
o
n
a
l
NO
x

–

S
e
a
s
o
n
a
l
NO
x

–

S
e
a
s
o
n
a
l
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 214
Appendix - Chapter 4

APPENDIX 4.1: CURRENT TRANSPORTATION/STORAGE RATES AND ASSUMPTIONS

Reservation Commodity Fuel Rate
TransCanada NGTL System Firm Rates (2)
FT-D Demand Rate Alberta-B.C. Border $4.77CAD/GJ/month N/a N/a
TransCanada Foothills BC System Firm Rates (3)
FT A/BC to Kingsgate $2.32CAD/GJ/month N/a 1.70%
GTN FTS-1 Rates
Mileage Based - Representative Example
Kingsgate to Spokane $0.081391/Dth/day $0.001733/Dth/day 0.0042% per Dth/mile
Kingsgate to Malin $0.300201/Dth/day $0.009799/Dth/day 0.0042% per Dth/mile
Medford Lateral $0.247709/Dth/day $0.002291/Dth/day N/a
Spectra Energy/Westcoast System Firms Rates (4)
Postage Stamp Rates
Station 2 to Huntingdon/Sumas $477.81CAD/103m3/month N/a N/a
Williams NWP
Postage Stamp Rates
TF-1 $0.39294/Dth/day $0.00832/Dth/day 1.16%
TF-2 $0.39294/Dth/day $0.00832/Dth/day 1.16%
SGS-2F $0.01562/Dth/day $0.00057/Dth/day 0.17%
(1) Rates and Fuel reported are from current tariffed rates in the established currency and energy units of each pipeline
(2) Rate does not reflect current term-differentiation or Abandonment Surcharge
(3) Rate does not include Abandonment Surcharge
(4) Rate changes annually
Current Tariff Rates (1)
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 215
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.1: MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
EXPECTED PRICE

Scenario Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Expected Case AECO 2017-2018 1.79$ 1.56$ 1.66$ 2.13$ 0.93$ 1.06$ 1.03$ 1.02$ 1.07$ 1.08$ 1.03$ 1.08$
Expected Case AECO 2018-2019 1.49$ 1.66$ 1.72$ 1.72$ 1.59$ 1.23$ 1.21$ 1.30$ 1.38$ 1.38$ 1.30$ 1.33$
Expected Case AECO 2019-2020 1.69$ 1.88$ 1.97$ 1.93$ 1.75$ 1.47$ 1.47$ 1.48$ 1.53$ 1.56$ 1.51$ 1.57$
Expected Case AECO 2020-2021 1.79$ 1.94$ 2.18$ 2.13$ 2.03$ 1.74$ 1.72$ 1.76$ 1.85$ 1.86$ 1.78$ 1.84$
Expected Case AECO 2021-2022 2.13$ 2.26$ 2.38$ 2.40$ 2.33$ 2.01$ 2.02$ 2.01$ 2.07$ 2.09$ 2.11$ 2.12$
Expected Case AECO 2022-2023 2.28$ 2.44$ 2.52$ 2.48$ 2.43$ 2.12$ 2.18$ 2.21$ 2.22$ 2.29$ 2.28$ 2.28$
Expected Case AECO 2023-2024 2.57$ 2.76$ 2.85$ 2.85$ 2.81$ 2.60$ 2.60$ 2.57$ 2.70$ 2.82$ 2.79$ 2.84$
Expected Case AECO 2024-2025 2.95$ 3.03$ 3.09$ 3.10$ 2.95$ 2.77$ 2.80$ 2.89$ 2.96$ 2.99$ 2.94$ 2.94$
Expected Case AECO 2025-2026 3.00$ 3.10$ 3.20$ 3.18$ 3.03$ 2.87$ 2.93$ 3.01$ 3.12$ 3.15$ 3.07$ 3.12$
Expected Case AECO 2026-2027 3.17$ 3.31$ 3.41$ 3.41$ 3.32$ 3.19$ 3.17$ 3.28$ 3.39$ 3.42$ 3.36$ 3.38$
Expected Case AECO 2027-2028 3.48$ 3.70$ 3.77$ 3.67$ 3.59$ 3.50$ 3.48$ 3.63$ 3.72$ 3.77$ 3.64$ 3.68$
Expected Case AECO 2028-2029 3.77$ 3.93$ 3.99$ 4.06$ 3.93$ 3.82$ 3.83$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 4.02$ 3.93$ 4.03$
Expected Case AECO 2029-2030 4.12$ 4.34$ 4.36$ 4.37$ 4.18$ 4.07$ 4.11$ 4.16$ 4.29$ 4.35$ 4.27$ 4.31$
Expected Case AECO 2030-2031 4.30$ 4.51$ 4.60$ 4.61$ 4.43$ 4.23$ 4.31$ 4.35$ 4.53$ 4.59$ 4.50$ 4.53$
Expected Case AECO 2031-2032 4.52$ 4.65$ 4.76$ 4.69$ 4.54$ 4.35$ 4.40$ 4.45$ 4.61$ 4.68$ 4.61$ 4.70$
Expected Case AECO 2032-2033 4.67$ 4.93$ 5.00$ 5.00$ 4.82$ 4.63$ 4.65$ 4.70$ 4.92$ 4.96$ 4.86$ 4.87$
Expected Case AECO 2033-2034 4.93$ 5.14$ 5.18$ 5.21$ 4.97$ 4.79$ 4.80$ 4.88$ 5.11$ 5.12$ 4.99$ 5.04$
Expected Case AECO 2034-2035 5.13$ 5.29$ 5.43$ 5.40$ 5.22$ 5.05$ 4.99$ 5.07$ 5.27$ 5.34$ 5.21$ 5.13$
Expected Case AECO 2035-2036 5.02$ 5.14$ 5.51$ 5.58$ 5.40$ 5.20$ 5.21$ 5.36$ 5.74$ 5.89$ 5.62$ 5.60$
Expected Case AECO 2036-2037 5.67$ 5.97$ 6.06$ 6.10$ 5.75$ 5.38$ 5.39$ 5.51$ 5.88$ 5.96$ 5.65$ 5.54$
Expected Case Malin 2017-2018 2.75$ 2.61$ 2.75$ 3.29$ 2.13$ 2.06$ 2.13$ 2.18$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.21$ 2.23$
Expected Case Malin 2018-2019 2.36$ 2.65$ 2.69$ 2.65$ 2.49$ 2.15$ 2.07$ 2.11$ 2.19$ 2.21$ 2.18$ 2.14$
Expected Case Malin 2019-2020 2.46$ 2.72$ 2.77$ 2.71$ 2.61$ 2.38$ 2.37$ 2.48$ 2.55$ 2.33$ 2.30$ 2.33$
Expected Case Malin 2020-2021 2.55$ 2.74$ 2.94$ 2.90$ 2.67$ 2.50$ 2.45$ 2.47$ 2.62$ 2.66$ 2.64$ 2.64$
Expected Case Malin 2021-2022 2.89$ 3.04$ 3.10$ 3.09$ 2.87$ 2.67$ 2.64$ 2.63$ 2.76$ 2.78$ 2.82$ 2.78$
Expected Case Malin 2022-2023 3.00$ 3.18$ 3.23$ 3.21$ 3.06$ 2.79$ 2.77$ 2.80$ 2.88$ 2.96$ 2.97$ 2.96$
Expected Case Malin 2023-2024 3.30$ 3.48$ 3.53$ 3.53$ 3.38$ 3.19$ 3.17$ 3.16$ 3.31$ 3.39$ 3.37$ 3.37$
Expected Case Malin 2024-2025 3.63$ 3.74$ 3.79$ 3.80$ 3.62$ 3.43$ 3.38$ 3.43$ 3.52$ 3.55$ 3.55$ 3.50$
Expected Case Malin 2025-2026 3.67$ 3.78$ 3.86$ 3.87$ 3.68$ 3.53$ 3.49$ 3.50$ 3.62$ 3.64$ 3.62$ 3.60$
Expected Case Malin 2026-2027 3.74$ 3.93$ 4.00$ 4.00$ 3.82$ 3.69$ 3.64$ 3.73$ 3.91$ 3.89$ 3.88$ 3.86$
Expected Case Malin 2027-2028 4.08$ 4.24$ 4.37$ 4.29$ 4.17$ 4.01$ 3.94$ 4.07$ 4.15$ 4.15$ 4.12$ 4.10$
Expected Case Malin 2028-2029 4.30$ 4.46$ 4.57$ 4.55$ 4.40$ 4.25$ 4.22$ 4.25$ 4.38$ 4.40$ 4.37$ 4.41$
Expected Case Malin 2029-2030 4.58$ 4.79$ 4.86$ 4.86$ 4.73$ 4.54$ 4.51$ 4.55$ 4.67$ 4.69$ 4.71$ 4.74$
Expected Case Malin 2030-2031 4.86$ 5.02$ 5.15$ 5.11$ 4.95$ 4.71$ 4.72$ 4.77$ 4.95$ 4.99$ 4.91$ 4.93$
Expected Case Malin 2031-2032 5.06$ 5.17$ 5.32$ 5.28$ 5.13$ 4.89$ 4.87$ 4.93$ 5.11$ 5.15$ 5.10$ 5.13$
Expected Case Malin 2032-2033 5.25$ 5.45$ 5.51$ 5.51$ 5.35$ 5.15$ 5.12$ 5.18$ 5.42$ 5.43$ 5.33$ 5.33$
Expected Case Malin 2033-2034 5.47$ 5.67$ 5.75$ 5.77$ 5.57$ 5.39$ 5.32$ 5.42$ 5.62$ 5.61$ 5.52$ 5.59$
Expected Case Malin 2034-2035 5.73$ 5.88$ 6.02$ 6.02$ 5.80$ 5.62$ 5.52$ 5.61$ 5.78$ 5.85$ 5.75$ 5.76$
Expected Case Malin 2035-2036 5.73$ 5.88$ 6.25$ 6.28$ 6.06$ 5.85$ 5.81$ 5.90$ 6.25$ 6.31$ 6.09$ 6.13$
Expected Case Malin 2036-2037 6.36$ 6.73$ 6.76$ 6.79$ 6.42$ 6.02$ 5.95$ 6.00$ 6.33$ 6.38$ 6.09$ 6.15$
Expected Case Rockies 2017-2018 2.70$ 2.50$ 3.07$ 3.23$ 2.05$ 1.99$ 2.04$ 2.09$ 2.15$ 2.18$ 2.10$ 2.13$
Expected Case Rockies 2018-2019 2.28$ 2.55$ 2.75$ 2.59$ 2.44$ 2.09$ 2.01$ 2.05$ 2.10$ 2.12$ 2.09$ 2.05$
Expected Case Rockies 2019-2020 2.37$ 2.62$ 2.83$ 2.65$ 2.55$ 2.32$ 2.31$ 2.42$ 2.46$ 2.24$ 2.21$ 2.24$
Expected Case Rockies 2020-2021 2.47$ 2.64$ 3.00$ 2.84$ 2.61$ 2.45$ 2.38$ 2.40$ 2.51$ 2.54$ 2.53$ 2.52$
Expected Case Rockies 2021-2022 2.77$ 2.92$ 2.98$ 2.98$ 2.81$ 2.61$ 2.57$ 2.57$ 2.64$ 2.67$ 2.70$ 2.66$
Expected Case Rockies 2022-2023 2.87$ 3.05$ 3.10$ 3.08$ 2.98$ 2.67$ 2.68$ 2.70$ 2.75$ 2.83$ 2.84$ 2.82$
Expected Case Rockies 2023-2024 3.16$ 3.34$ 3.38$ 3.38$ 3.30$ 3.09$ 3.06$ 3.06$ 3.18$ 3.24$ 3.23$ 3.22$
Expected Case Rockies 2024-2025 3.44$ 3.58$ 3.63$ 3.64$ 3.46$ 3.28$ 3.27$ 3.30$ 3.38$ 3.40$ 3.39$ 3.35$
Expected Case Rockies 2025-2026 3.47$ 3.62$ 3.71$ 3.71$ 3.53$ 3.38$ 3.35$ 3.37$ 3.47$ 3.49$ 3.47$ 3.45$
Expected Case Rockies 2026-2027 3.59$ 3.78$ 3.84$ 3.85$ 3.67$ 3.55$ 3.51$ 3.61$ 3.76$ 3.74$ 3.73$ 3.71$
Expected Case Rockies 2027-2028 3.92$ 4.08$ 4.20$ 4.12$ 4.01$ 3.86$ 3.85$ 3.98$ 4.00$ 4.00$ 3.97$ 3.94$
Expected Case Rockies 2028-2029 4.14$ 4.30$ 4.40$ 4.38$ 4.25$ 4.12$ 4.13$ 4.16$ 4.23$ 4.24$ 4.20$ 4.24$
Expected Case Rockies 2029-2030 4.40$ 4.60$ 4.67$ 4.67$ 4.58$ 4.41$ 4.41$ 4.43$ 4.52$ 4.52$ 4.53$ 4.56$
Expected Case Rockies 2030-2031 4.67$ 4.83$ 4.95$ 4.92$ 4.80$ 4.60$ 4.61$ 4.66$ 4.76$ 4.80$ 4.72$ 4.74$
Expected Case Rockies 2031-2032 4.86$ 4.97$ 5.11$ 5.07$ 4.96$ 4.78$ 4.75$ 4.81$ 4.96$ 4.97$ 4.91$ 4.93$
Expected Case Rockies 2032-2033 5.05$ 5.24$ 5.30$ 5.30$ 5.16$ 5.03$ 5.00$ 5.05$ 5.26$ 5.25$ 5.13$ 5.13$
Expected Case Rockies 2033-2034 5.26$ 5.45$ 5.53$ 5.55$ 5.38$ 5.26$ 5.19$ 5.29$ 5.45$ 5.42$ 5.31$ 5.38$
Expected Case Rockies 2034-2035 5.52$ 5.66$ 5.80$ 5.79$ 5.60$ 5.48$ 5.38$ 5.47$ 5.61$ 5.65$ 5.54$ 5.54$
Expected Case Rockies 2035-2036 5.50$ 5.65$ 6.02$ 6.05$ 5.86$ 5.71$ 5.66$ 5.75$ 6.07$ 6.10$ 5.87$ 5.90$
Expected Case Rockies 2036-2037 6.13$ 6.49$ 6.52$ 6.55$ 6.20$ 5.87$ 5.80$ 5.84$ 6.14$ 6.17$ 5.87$ 5.92$
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 216
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.1: MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
EXPECTED PRICE

Expected Case Stanfield 2017-2018 2.68$ 2.60$ 2.80$ 3.26$ 2.04$ 1.96$ 2.01$ 2.03$ 2.12$ 2.16$ 2.08$ 2.07$
Expected Case Stanfield 2018-2019 2.33$ 2.62$ 2.65$ 2.61$ 2.46$ 2.04$ 1.96$ 2.01$ 2.03$ 2.03$ 2.03$ 1.99$
Expected Case Stanfield 2019-2020 2.42$ 2.69$ 2.73$ 2.68$ 2.51$ 2.29$ 2.28$ 2.38$ 2.39$ 2.15$ 2.14$ 2.17$
Expected Case Stanfield 2020-2021 2.51$ 2.70$ 2.90$ 2.86$ 2.60$ 2.43$ 2.35$ 2.36$ 2.45$ 2.47$ 2.48$ 2.50$
Expected Case Stanfield 2021-2022 2.85$ 3.00$ 3.06$ 3.05$ 2.79$ 2.58$ 2.55$ 2.54$ 2.60$ 2.60$ 2.65$ 2.63$
Expected Case Stanfield 2022-2023 2.96$ 3.14$ 3.19$ 3.17$ 3.02$ 2.70$ 2.68$ 2.70$ 2.71$ 2.77$ 2.80$ 2.82$
Expected Case Stanfield 2023-2024 3.26$ 3.44$ 3.49$ 3.49$ 3.34$ 3.13$ 3.11$ 3.10$ 3.14$ 3.22$ 3.24$ 3.27$
Expected Case Stanfield 2024-2025 3.59$ 3.69$ 3.75$ 3.75$ 3.57$ 3.38$ 3.34$ 3.37$ 3.37$ 3.36$ 3.41$ 3.38$
Expected Case Stanfield 2025-2026 3.62$ 3.74$ 3.81$ 3.82$ 3.64$ 3.46$ 3.41$ 3.44$ 3.45$ 3.45$ 3.48$ 3.46$
Expected Case Stanfield 2026-2027 3.70$ 3.89$ 3.95$ 3.96$ 3.78$ 3.61$ 3.57$ 3.68$ 3.73$ 3.70$ 3.75$ 3.72$
Expected Case Stanfield 2027-2028 4.04$ 4.22$ 4.33$ 4.25$ 4.13$ 3.94$ 3.86$ 3.99$ 3.96$ 3.96$ 3.97$ 3.95$
Expected Case Stanfield 2028-2029 4.26$ 4.42$ 4.55$ 4.50$ 4.35$ 4.16$ 4.14$ 4.17$ 4.19$ 4.20$ 4.18$ 4.23$
Expected Case Stanfield 2029-2030 4.56$ 4.73$ 4.81$ 4.81$ 4.68$ 4.44$ 4.41$ 4.45$ 4.46$ 4.49$ 4.52$ 4.55$
Expected Case Stanfield 2030-2031 4.81$ 4.97$ 5.09$ 5.08$ 4.90$ 4.61$ 4.60$ 4.66$ 4.74$ 4.78$ 4.71$ 4.73$
Expected Case Stanfield 2031-2032 5.01$ 5.14$ 5.29$ 5.22$ 5.07$ 4.78$ 4.75$ 4.81$ 4.91$ 4.94$ 4.89$ 4.92$
Expected Case Stanfield 2032-2033 5.19$ 5.39$ 5.45$ 5.45$ 5.28$ 5.02$ 5.00$ 5.05$ 5.21$ 5.22$ 5.12$ 5.13$
Expected Case Stanfield 2033-2034 5.41$ 5.64$ 5.71$ 5.74$ 5.51$ 5.25$ 5.19$ 5.30$ 5.41$ 5.40$ 5.30$ 5.38$
Expected Case Stanfield 2034-2035 5.68$ 5.85$ 5.99$ 5.99$ 5.73$ 5.48$ 5.38$ 5.47$ 5.56$ 5.63$ 5.53$ 5.54$
Expected Case Stanfield 2035-2036 5.64$ 5.84$ 6.22$ 6.21$ 5.97$ 5.72$ 5.68$ 5.77$ 6.02$ 6.08$ 5.86$ 5.90$
Expected Case Stanfield 2036-2037 6.30$ 6.65$ 6.68$ 6.71$ 6.34$ 5.87$ 5.80$ 5.83$ 6.10$ 6.15$ 5.86$ 5.92$
Expected Case Sumas 2017-2018 2.69$ 2.78$ 2.72$ 3.20$ 1.98$ 1.80$ 1.75$ 1.80$ 1.98$ 2.01$ 2.01$ 2.10$
Expected Case Sumas 2018-2019 2.60$ 2.93$ 2.95$ 2.81$ 2.37$ 1.79$ 1.77$ 1.93$ 2.14$ 2.13$ 2.13$ 2.17$
Expected Case Sumas 2019-2020 2.54$ 3.08$ 3.10$ 2.88$ 2.36$ 1.94$ 1.92$ 1.91$ 2.05$ 2.08$ 2.07$ 2.19$
Expected Case Sumas 2020-2021 2.52$ 2.83$ 2.91$ 2.73$ 2.45$ 2.00$ 1.99$ 2.00$ 2.22$ 2.23$ 2.20$ 2.26$
Expected Case Sumas 2021-2022 2.68$ 3.07$ 3.11$ 3.00$ 2.74$ 2.19$ 2.19$ 2.16$ 2.34$ 2.36$ 2.42$ 2.46$
Expected Case Sumas 2022-2023 2.80$ 3.21$ 3.22$ 3.07$ 2.82$ 2.30$ 2.32$ 2.33$ 2.47$ 2.54$ 2.58$ 2.62$
Expected Case Sumas 2023-2024 3.09$ 3.51$ 3.57$ 3.44$ 3.21$ 2.82$ 2.80$ 2.76$ 3.02$ 3.15$ 3.15$ 3.19$
Expected Case Sumas 2024-2025 3.41$ 3.71$ 3.75$ 3.63$ 3.31$ 2.98$ 3.00$ 3.08$ 3.30$ 3.35$ 3.32$ 3.34$
Expected Case Sumas 2025-2026 3.48$ 3.79$ 3.85$ 3.70$ 3.40$ 3.09$ 3.14$ 3.24$ 3.50$ 3.52$ 3.46$ 3.51$
Expected Case Sumas 2026-2027 3.64$ 4.05$ 4.06$ 3.88$ 3.62$ 3.39$ 3.36$ 3.40$ 3.69$ 3.72$ 3.69$ 3.71$
Expected Case Sumas 2027-2028 3.95$ 4.43$ 4.46$ 4.22$ 3.94$ 3.68$ 3.66$ 3.78$ 4.00$ 4.06$ 3.96$ 4.01$
Expected Case Sumas 2028-2029 4.24$ 4.66$ 4.71$ 4.64$ 4.32$ 4.03$ 4.04$ 4.04$ 4.30$ 4.34$ 4.28$ 4.39$
Expected Case Sumas 2029-2030 4.61$ 5.10$ 5.09$ 4.98$ 4.60$ 4.32$ 4.34$ 4.38$ 4.64$ 4.70$ 4.66$ 4.71$
Expected Case Sumas 2030-2031 4.84$ 5.30$ 5.36$ 5.23$ 4.85$ 4.49$ 4.56$ 4.59$ 4.90$ 4.95$ 4.90$ 4.93$
Expected Case Sumas 2031-2032 5.08$ 5.46$ 5.52$ 5.31$ 4.97$ 4.60$ 4.64$ 4.68$ 4.97$ 5.04$ 5.00$ 5.10$
Expected Case Sumas 2032-2033 5.22$ 5.73$ 5.76$ 5.62$ 5.24$ 4.89$ 4.90$ 4.92$ 5.30$ 5.33$ 5.27$ 5.28$
Expected Case Sumas 2033-2034 5.47$ 5.94$ 5.94$ 5.82$ 5.38$ 5.03$ 5.04$ 5.10$ 5.46$ 5.48$ 5.37$ 5.42$
Expected Case Sumas 2034-2035 5.66$ 6.09$ 6.17$ 6.01$ 5.62$ 5.27$ 5.21$ 5.27$ 5.61$ 5.67$ 5.58$ 5.50$
Expected Case Sumas 2035-2036 5.58$ 5.93$ 6.25$ 6.18$ 5.79$ 5.43$ 5.43$ 5.57$ 6.08$ 6.22$ 5.99$ 5.97$
Expected Case Sumas 2036-2037 6.19$ 6.74$ 6.79$ 6.69$ 6.15$ 5.61$ 5.62$ 5.70$ 6.21$ 6.29$ 6.02$ 5.94$
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 217
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.1: MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE

Scenario Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2017-2018 1.79$ 1.56$ 1.66$ 2.13$ 0.93$ 1.06$ 1.03$ 1.02$ 1.07$ 1.08$ 1.03$ 1.08$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2018-2019 1.32$ 1.48$ 1.54$ 1.55$ 1.42$ 1.07$ 1.05$ 1.14$ 1.22$ 1.22$ 1.13$ 1.17$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2019-2020 1.35$ 1.52$ 1.61$ 1.57$ 1.41$ 1.15$ 1.15$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 1.18$ 1.23$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2020-2021 1.26$ 1.39$ 1.61$ 1.56$ 1.48$ 1.23$ 1.22$ 1.25$ 1.32$ 1.33$ 1.25$ 1.30$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2021-2022 1.38$ 1.49$ 1.59$ 1.61$ 1.55$ 1.29$ 1.30$ 1.29$ 1.33$ 1.35$ 1.35$ 1.37$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2022-2023 1.31$ 1.43$ 1.49$ 1.46$ 1.42$ 1.18$ 1.23$ 1.25$ 1.26$ 1.30$ 1.29$ 1.29$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2023-2024 1.40$ 1.55$ 1.63$ 1.62$ 1.59$ 1.44$ 1.42$ 1.40$ 1.50$ 1.58$ 1.56$ 1.60$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2024-2025 1.57$ 1.63$ 1.67$ 1.67$ 1.55$ 1.43$ 1.45$ 1.51$ 1.57$ 1.59$ 1.55$ 1.56$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2025-2026 1.49$ 1.56$ 1.63$ 1.60$ 1.49$ 1.37$ 1.42$ 1.49$ 1.57$ 1.58$ 1.52$ 1.58$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2026-2027 1.50$ 1.59$ 1.65$ 1.65$ 1.59$ 1.50$ 1.48$ 1.53$ 1.62$ 1.63$ 1.58$ 1.62$ High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2027-2028 1.57$ 1.71$ 1.74$ 1.66$ 1.61$ 1.55$ 1.54$ 1.63$ 1.70$ 1.72$ 1.62$ 1.67$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2028-2029 1.68$ 1.77$ 1.81$ 1.86$ 1.77$ 1.69$ 1.68$ 1.69$ 1.77$ 1.78$ 1.71$ 1.80$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2029-2030 1.83$ 1.95$ 1.95$ 1.94$ 1.79$ 1.73$ 1.75$ 1.79$ 1.87$ 1.90$ 1.84$ 1.87$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2030-2031 1.81$ 1.94$ 1.98$ 1.98$ 1.87$ 1.73$ 1.78$ 1.79$ 1.90$ 1.93$ 1.88$ 1.90$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2031-2032 1.84$ 1.92$ 1.96$ 1.91$ 1.81$ 1.69$ 1.72$ 1.76$ 1.85$ 1.88$ 1.83$ 1.91$ High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2032-2033 1.83$ 1.96$ 2.00$ 1.99$ 1.87$ 1.77$ 1.75$ 1.78$ 1.91$ 1.92$ 1.86$ 1.87$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2033-2034 1.84$ 1.96$ 1.97$ 1.97$ 1.82$ 1.71$ 1.71$ 1.74$ 1.86$ 1.86$ 1.79$ 1.82$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2034-2035 1.84$ 1.92$ 1.98$ 1.94$ 1.86$ 1.75$ 1.69$ 1.72$ 1.83$ 1.84$ 1.78$ 1.73$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2035-2036 1.65$ 1.68$ 1.82$ 1.88$ 1.78$ 1.67$ 1.65$ 1.74$ 1.91$ 2.00$ 1.88$ 1.87$
High Growth & Low Prices AECO 2036-2037 1.81$ 1.90$ 1.95$ 1.98$ 1.81$ 1.64$ 1.63$ 1.69$ 1.89$ 1.93$ 1.78$ 1.71$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2017-2018 2.75$ 2.61$ 2.75$ 3.29$ 2.13$ 2.06$ 2.13$ 2.18$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.21$ 2.23$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2018-2019 2.19$ 2.47$ 2.51$ 2.47$ 2.32$ 1.99$ 1.92$ 1.95$ 2.02$ 2.05$ 2.01$ 1.97$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2019-2020 2.11$ 2.37$ 2.40$ 2.35$ 2.26$ 2.06$ 2.05$ 2.16$ 2.22$ 2.00$ 1.97$ 1.99$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2020-2021 2.02$ 2.19$ 2.37$ 2.34$ 2.12$ 1.99$ 1.94$ 1.96$ 2.10$ 2.13$ 2.11$ 2.10$ High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2021-2022 2.14$ 2.27$ 2.31$ 2.29$ 2.10$ 1.95$ 1.92$ 1.91$ 2.03$ 2.05$ 2.07$ 2.03$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2022-2023 2.03$ 2.17$ 2.20$ 2.19$ 2.05$ 1.85$ 1.82$ 1.84$ 1.92$ 1.97$ 1.98$ 1.96$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2023-2024 2.14$ 2.28$ 2.30$ 2.30$ 2.16$ 2.03$ 2.00$ 1.99$ 2.10$ 2.15$ 2.14$ 2.13$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2024-2025 2.25$ 2.33$ 2.36$ 2.37$ 2.22$ 2.08$ 2.03$ 2.05$ 2.13$ 2.15$ 2.15$ 2.12$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2025-2026 2.16$ 2.25$ 2.29$ 2.29$ 2.14$ 2.03$ 1.98$ 1.98$ 2.07$ 2.07$ 2.07$ 2.05$ High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2026-2027 2.08$ 2.21$ 2.24$ 2.24$ 2.09$ 2.00$ 1.95$ 1.99$ 2.14$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.10$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2027-2028 2.17$ 2.25$ 2.34$ 2.28$ 2.19$ 2.06$ 2.00$ 2.06$ 2.13$ 2.11$ 2.10$ 2.09$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2028-2029 2.21$ 2.30$ 2.39$ 2.34$ 2.23$ 2.12$ 2.07$ 2.09$ 2.18$ 2.17$ 2.16$ 2.18$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2029-2030 2.29$ 2.40$ 2.45$ 2.43$ 2.34$ 2.20$ 2.15$ 2.18$ 2.25$ 2.24$ 2.28$ 2.30$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2030-2031 2.37$ 2.45$ 2.53$ 2.49$ 2.39$ 2.22$ 2.19$ 2.21$ 2.32$ 2.33$ 2.29$ 2.31$ High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2031-2032 2.38$ 2.44$ 2.52$ 2.50$ 2.40$ 2.23$ 2.19$ 2.24$ 2.35$ 2.35$ 2.32$ 2.34$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2032-2033 2.40$ 2.48$ 2.52$ 2.50$ 2.40$ 2.29$ 2.22$ 2.26$ 2.40$ 2.39$ 2.32$ 2.33$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2033-2034 2.39$ 2.49$ 2.53$ 2.52$ 2.42$ 2.30$ 2.23$ 2.28$ 2.37$ 2.35$ 2.31$ 2.38$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2034-2035 2.44$ 2.51$ 2.57$ 2.56$ 2.43$ 2.31$ 2.21$ 2.25$ 2.33$ 2.35$ 2.32$ 2.36$
High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2035-2036 2.35$ 2.42$ 2.57$ 2.58$ 2.45$ 2.32$ 2.25$ 2.27$ 2.43$ 2.42$ 2.35$ 2.40$ High Growth & Low Prices Malin 2036-2037 2.51$ 2.66$ 2.66$ 2.67$ 2.48$ 2.28$ 2.19$ 2.19$ 2.34$ 2.35$ 2.23$ 2.31$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2017-2018 2.70$ 2.50$ 3.07$ 3.23$ 2.05$ 1.99$ 2.04$ 2.09$ 2.15$ 2.18$ 2.10$ 2.13$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2018-2019 2.11$ 2.37$ 2.57$ 2.41$ 2.26$ 1.93$ 1.85$ 1.89$ 1.94$ 1.96$ 1.92$ 1.88$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2019-2020 2.03$ 2.26$ 2.47$ 2.30$ 2.20$ 2.00$ 1.99$ 2.10$ 2.13$ 1.91$ 1.88$ 1.90$ High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2020-2021 1.94$ 2.09$ 2.43$ 2.28$ 2.06$ 1.94$ 1.88$ 1.89$ 1.98$ 2.01$ 2.00$ 1.99$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2021-2022 2.02$ 2.15$ 2.19$ 2.19$ 2.03$ 1.89$ 1.85$ 1.85$ 1.91$ 1.93$ 1.95$ 1.91$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2022-2023 1.91$ 2.05$ 2.08$ 2.06$ 1.97$ 1.73$ 1.73$ 1.74$ 1.79$ 1.84$ 1.85$ 1.83$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2023-2024 2.00$ 2.13$ 2.16$ 2.16$ 2.08$ 1.92$ 1.89$ 1.89$ 1.97$ 2.00$ 2.00$ 1.98$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2024-2025 2.07$ 2.18$ 2.21$ 2.21$ 2.07$ 1.94$ 1.92$ 1.93$ 1.99$ 2.00$ 2.00$ 1.96$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2025-2026 1.97$ 2.08$ 2.14$ 2.13$ 1.99$ 1.89$ 1.84$ 1.84$ 1.92$ 1.92$ 1.92$ 1.90$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2026-2027 1.92$ 2.05$ 2.09$ 2.08$ 1.94$ 1.86$ 1.82$ 1.87$ 1.99$ 1.95$ 1.96$ 1.94$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2027-2028 2.01$ 2.09$ 2.17$ 2.11$ 2.03$ 1.91$ 1.91$ 1.97$ 1.98$ 1.95$ 1.94$ 1.93$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2028-2029 2.05$ 2.14$ 2.22$ 2.17$ 2.08$ 1.99$ 1.98$ 2.00$ 2.02$ 2.00$ 1.99$ 2.01$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2029-2030 2.11$ 2.22$ 2.27$ 2.24$ 2.19$ 2.07$ 2.06$ 2.06$ 2.10$ 2.06$ 2.10$ 2.12$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2030-2031 2.19$ 2.26$ 2.34$ 2.30$ 2.24$ 2.11$ 2.08$ 2.10$ 2.13$ 2.14$ 2.10$ 2.12$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2031-2032 2.18$ 2.24$ 2.32$ 2.30$ 2.23$ 2.12$ 2.07$ 2.12$ 2.20$ 2.17$ 2.13$ 2.14$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2032-2033 2.20$ 2.27$ 2.30$ 2.29$ 2.22$ 2.17$ 2.10$ 2.14$ 2.24$ 2.21$ 2.12$ 2.13$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2033-2034 2.18$ 2.27$ 2.31$ 2.31$ 2.23$ 2.18$ 2.10$ 2.14$ 2.21$ 2.16$ 2.11$ 2.17$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2034-2035 2.23$ 2.28$ 2.35$ 2.33$ 2.23$ 2.18$ 2.08$ 2.11$ 2.16$ 2.15$ 2.11$ 2.14$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2035-2036 2.13$ 2.19$ 2.34$ 2.35$ 2.24$ 2.18$ 2.10$ 2.12$ 2.24$ 2.21$ 2.13$ 2.17$
High Growth & Low Prices Rockies 2036-2037 2.27$ 2.42$ 2.41$ 2.42$ 2.26$ 2.14$ 2.04$ 2.03$ 2.15$ 2.14$ 2.00$ 2.08$
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 218
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.1: MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
HIGH GROWTH LOW PRICE

High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2017-2018 2.68$ 2.60$ 2.80$ 3.26$ 2.04$ 1.96$ 2.01$ 2.03$ 2.12$ 2.16$ 2.08$ 2.07$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2018-2019 2.16$ 2.45$ 2.47$ 2.44$ 2.29$ 1.88$ 1.80$ 1.85$ 1.87$ 1.87$ 1.87$ 1.82$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2019-2020 2.08$ 2.33$ 2.37$ 2.32$ 2.17$ 1.97$ 1.95$ 2.06$ 2.06$ 1.82$ 1.81$ 1.84$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2020-2021 1.98$ 2.16$ 2.33$ 2.30$ 2.05$ 1.92$ 1.85$ 1.85$ 1.93$ 1.94$ 1.94$ 1.96$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2021-2022 2.10$ 2.23$ 2.27$ 2.25$ 2.01$ 1.86$ 1.83$ 1.82$ 1.86$ 1.86$ 1.90$ 1.88$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2022-2023 1.99$ 2.13$ 2.16$ 2.14$ 2.01$ 1.77$ 1.73$ 1.75$ 1.75$ 1.79$ 1.80$ 1.83$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2023-2024 2.10$ 2.23$ 2.26$ 2.26$ 2.12$ 1.96$ 1.94$ 1.92$ 1.93$ 1.98$ 2.01$ 2.03$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2024-2025 2.21$ 2.29$ 2.32$ 2.32$ 2.17$ 2.03$ 1.98$ 2.00$ 1.98$ 1.96$ 2.02$ 1.99$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2025-2026 2.12$ 2.20$ 2.24$ 2.24$ 2.10$ 1.96$ 1.91$ 1.91$ 1.90$ 1.88$ 1.93$ 1.92$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2026-2027 2.04$ 2.16$ 2.20$ 2.19$ 2.05$ 1.93$ 1.89$ 1.93$ 1.96$ 1.90$ 1.97$ 1.96$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2027-2028 2.13$ 2.22$ 2.30$ 2.24$ 2.15$ 1.99$ 1.92$ 1.99$ 1.94$ 1.91$ 1.94$ 1.94$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2028-2029 2.17$ 2.26$ 2.36$ 2.30$ 2.18$ 2.02$ 1.99$ 2.00$ 1.98$ 1.97$ 1.97$ 2.01$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2029-2030 2.27$ 2.35$ 2.40$ 2.38$ 2.29$ 2.10$ 2.05$ 2.07$ 2.05$ 2.04$ 2.09$ 2.11$ High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2030-2031 2.32$ 2.40$ 2.48$ 2.46$ 2.34$ 2.11$ 2.07$ 2.10$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.09$ 2.11$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2031-2032 2.33$ 2.41$ 2.50$ 2.45$ 2.34$ 2.12$ 2.07$ 2.12$ 2.15$ 2.14$ 2.11$ 2.13$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2032-2033 2.35$ 2.42$ 2.45$ 2.44$ 2.34$ 2.16$ 2.10$ 2.14$ 2.19$ 2.18$ 2.11$ 2.12$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2033-2034 2.33$ 2.46$ 2.50$ 2.49$ 2.36$ 2.17$ 2.09$ 2.16$ 2.16$ 2.13$ 2.10$ 2.17$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2034-2035 2.39$ 2.48$ 2.54$ 2.53$ 2.36$ 2.18$ 2.08$ 2.11$ 2.11$ 2.13$ 2.10$ 2.14$ High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2035-2036 2.27$ 2.38$ 2.53$ 2.51$ 2.35$ 2.19$ 2.12$ 2.14$ 2.20$ 2.19$ 2.12$ 2.17$
High Growth & Low Prices Stanfield 2036-2037 2.45$ 2.58$ 2.57$ 2.58$ 2.40$ 2.14$ 2.04$ 2.02$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.00$ 2.08$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2017-2018 2.69$ 2.78$ 2.72$ 3.20$ 1.98$ 1.80$ 1.75$ 1.80$ 1.98$ 2.01$ 2.01$ 2.10$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2018-2019 2.44$ 2.76$ 2.77$ 2.63$ 2.20$ 1.63$ 1.61$ 1.77$ 1.98$ 1.97$ 1.97$ 2.01$ High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2019-2020 2.20$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.52$ 2.01$ 1.62$ 1.60$ 1.59$ 1.73$ 1.74$ 1.74$ 1.85$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2020-2021 1.99$ 2.28$ 2.34$ 2.16$ 1.90$ 1.49$ 1.48$ 1.49$ 1.69$ 1.70$ 1.67$ 1.72$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2021-2022 1.93$ 2.30$ 2.32$ 2.21$ 1.97$ 1.47$ 1.47$ 1.44$ 1.61$ 1.62$ 1.67$ 1.71$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2022-2023 1.83$ 2.20$ 2.19$ 2.05$ 1.81$ 1.37$ 1.37$ 1.37$ 1.51$ 1.55$ 1.59$ 1.63$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2023-2024 1.92$ 2.30$ 2.35$ 2.21$ 1.99$ 1.65$ 1.63$ 1.58$ 1.81$ 1.92$ 1.92$ 1.95$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2024-2025 2.03$ 2.31$ 2.32$ 2.19$ 1.91$ 1.63$ 1.64$ 1.71$ 1.91$ 1.95$ 1.93$ 1.95$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2025-2026 1.97$ 2.26$ 2.27$ 2.11$ 1.85$ 1.60$ 1.64$ 1.72$ 1.95$ 1.95$ 1.91$ 1.96$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2026-2027 1.97$ 2.33$ 2.30$ 2.11$ 1.89$ 1.71$ 1.67$ 1.66$ 1.91$ 1.93$ 1.92$ 1.95$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2027-2028 2.04$ 2.44$ 2.43$ 2.20$ 1.96$ 1.73$ 1.71$ 1.78$ 1.98$ 2.01$ 1.94$ 2.00$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2028-2029 2.15$ 2.50$ 2.53$ 2.44$ 2.15$ 1.90$ 1.89$ 1.88$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.07$ 2.16$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2029-2030 2.33$ 2.71$ 2.69$ 2.54$ 2.21$ 1.98$ 1.99$ 2.01$ 2.23$ 2.25$ 2.23$ 2.27$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2030-2031 2.36$ 2.73$ 2.75$ 2.61$ 2.29$ 2.00$ 2.04$ 2.03$ 2.27$ 2.29$ 2.27$ 2.31$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2031-2032 2.40$ 2.73$ 2.73$ 2.53$ 2.24$ 1.95$ 1.96$ 1.99$ 2.21$ 2.24$ 2.23$ 2.31$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2032-2033 2.37$ 2.76$ 2.76$ 2.61$ 2.30$ 2.02$ 2.00$ 2.00$ 2.28$ 2.29$ 2.26$ 2.28$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2033-2034 2.39$ 2.76$ 2.72$ 2.58$ 2.24$ 1.95$ 1.94$ 1.95$ 2.21$ 2.21$ 2.16$ 2.20$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2034-2035 2.37$ 2.72$ 2.72$ 2.55$ 2.25$ 1.97$ 1.91$ 1.92$ 2.16$ 2.17$ 2.15$ 2.11$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2035-2036 2.20$ 2.46$ 2.56$ 2.48$ 2.18$ 1.90$ 1.87$ 1.94$ 2.25$ 2.33$ 2.25$ 2.24$
High Growth & Low Prices Sumas 2036-2037 2.33$ 2.68$ 2.68$ 2.57$ 2.21$ 1.87$ 1.86$ 1.89$ 2.22$ 2.26$ 2.15$ 2.10$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2017-2018 2.59$ 2.43$ 3.39$ 3.25$ 2.04$ 1.90$ 1.91$ 1.86$ 1.97$ 2.08$ 2.08$ 2.09$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2018-2019 2.23$ 2.37$ 2.42$ 2.41$ 2.22$ 1.93$ 1.88$ 1.89$ 1.94$ 1.90$ 1.92$ 1.97$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2019-2020 2.15$ 2.27$ 2.28$ 2.24$ 1.98$ 1.85$ 1.80$ 1.80$ 1.85$ 1.82$ 1.83$ 1.84$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2020-2021 2.02$ 2.11$ 2.18$ 2.16$ 1.92$ 1.81$ 1.74$ 1.75$ 1.83$ 1.84$ 1.84$ 1.84$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2021-2022 1.99$ 2.09$ 2.12$ 2.11$ 1.88$ 1.76$ 1.72$ 1.71$ 1.76$ 1.75$ 1.77$ 1.76$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2022-2023 1.91$ 2.02$ 2.04$ 2.03$ 1.90$ 1.66$ 1.63$ 1.67$ 1.64$ 1.68$ 1.70$ 1.75$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2023-2024 1.98$ 2.09$ 2.11$ 2.11$ 1.99$ 1.85$ 1.83$ 1.85$ 1.86$ 1.91$ 1.93$ 1.92$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2024-2025 2.09$ 2.14$ 2.16$ 2.17$ 2.04$ 1.92$ 1.87$ 1.88$ 1.90$ 1.85$ 1.94$ 1.91$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2025-2026 2.00$ 2.05$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 1.96$ 1.89$ 1.83$ 1.84$ 1.82$ 1.77$ 1.81$ 1.80$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2026-2027 1.91$ 2.01$ 2.03$ 2.04$ 1.91$ 1.81$ 1.77$ 1.82$ 1.81$ 1.77$ 1.84$ 1.83$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2027-2028 2.01$ 2.07$ 2.13$ 2.08$ 2.00$ 1.84$ 1.76$ 1.87$ 1.78$ 1.77$ 1.81$ 1.81$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2028-2029 2.04$ 2.12$ 2.25$ 2.16$ 2.05$ 1.88$ 1.83$ 1.84$ 1.86$ 1.83$ 1.88$ 1.92$ High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2029-2030 2.14$ 2.21$ 2.26$ 2.24$ 2.20$ 1.95$ 1.89$ 1.90$ 1.88$ 1.94$ 1.95$ 2.02$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2030-2031 2.22$ 2.26$ 2.34$ 2.32$ 2.21$ 1.96$ 1.90$ 1.92$ 1.95$ 1.98$ 1.94$ 2.01$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2031-2032 2.19$ 2.27$ 2.35$ 2.30$ 2.21$ 1.96$ 1.95$ 1.94$ 1.98$ 1.99$ 1.97$ 1.99$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2032-2033 2.20$ 2.28$ 2.29$ 2.30$ 2.20$ 2.00$ 1.93$ 1.96$ 2.02$ 2.03$ 2.02$ 1.98$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2033-2034 2.19$ 2.31$ 2.30$ 2.35$ 2.22$ 2.01$ 1.92$ 1.98$ 1.99$ 1.98$ 2.00$ 2.02$ High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2034-2035 2.25$ 2.34$ 2.40$ 2.38$ 2.22$ 2.07$ 1.90$ 1.93$ 1.94$ 2.03$ 2.01$ 1.99$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2035-2036 2.12$ 2.21$ 2.35$ 2.36$ 2.21$ 2.02$ 1.94$ 1.95$ 2.08$ 2.08$ 2.02$ 2.01$
High Growth & Low Price Kingsgate 2036-2037 2.30$ 2.38$ 2.39$ 2.43$ 2.25$ 2.02$ 1.91$ 1.83$ 1.99$ 2.00$ 1.84$ 1.93$
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 219
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.1: MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
LOW GROWTH HIGH PRICE

Scenario Index Gas Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2017-2018 1.79$ 1.56$ 1.66$ 2.13$ 0.93$ 1.06$ 1.03$ 1.02$ 1.07$ 1.08$ 1.03$ 1.08$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2018-2019 1.66$ 1.83$ 1.90$ 1.90$ 1.76$ 1.38$ 1.37$ 1.46$ 1.54$ 1.55$ 1.46$ 1.50$ Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2019-2020 2.04$ 2.23$ 2.33$ 2.28$ 2.10$ 1.79$ 1.79$ 1.80$ 1.86$ 1.89$ 1.84$ 1.90$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2020-2021 2.32$ 2.48$ 2.75$ 2.69$ 2.58$ 2.25$ 2.23$ 2.27$ 2.37$ 2.40$ 2.32$ 2.38$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2021-2022 2.88$ 3.04$ 3.17$ 3.20$ 3.10$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.73$ 2.80$ 2.83$ 2.86$ 2.87$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2022-2023 3.24$ 3.45$ 3.55$ 3.51$ 3.45$ 3.06$ 3.13$ 3.16$ 3.18$ 3.28$ 3.27$ 3.28$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2023-2024 3.73$ 3.96$ 4.08$ 4.08$ 4.03$ 3.77$ 3.77$ 3.74$ 3.91$ 4.05$ 4.02$ 4.08$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2024-2025 4.32$ 4.44$ 4.52$ 4.54$ 4.35$ 4.12$ 4.16$ 4.26$ 4.35$ 4.39$ 4.33$ 4.33$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2025-2026 4.50$ 4.64$ 4.78$ 4.76$ 4.58$ 4.37$ 4.43$ 4.53$ 4.68$ 4.72$ 4.62$ 4.67$ Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2026-2027 4.84$ 5.04$ 5.17$ 5.18$ 5.04$ 4.88$ 4.85$ 5.02$ 5.16$ 5.21$ 5.14$ 5.15$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2027-2028 5.39$ 5.69$ 5.80$ 5.68$ 5.57$ 5.45$ 5.43$ 5.63$ 5.74$ 5.82$ 5.66$ 5.69$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2028-2029 5.86$ 6.09$ 6.17$ 6.27$ 6.10$ 5.95$ 5.98$ 6.02$ 6.19$ 6.26$ 6.14$ 6.25$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2029-2030 6.41$ 6.72$ 6.76$ 6.81$ 6.57$ 6.42$ 6.47$ 6.53$ 6.71$ 6.80$ 6.70$ 6.75$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2030-2031 6.78$ 7.08$ 7.21$ 7.23$ 6.98$ 6.72$ 6.83$ 6.91$ 7.16$ 7.24$ 7.12$ 7.15$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2031-2032 7.20$ 7.38$ 7.55$ 7.46$ 7.27$ 7.01$ 7.08$ 7.14$ 7.37$ 7.48$ 7.39$ 7.49$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2032-2033 7.52$ 7.89$ 7.99$ 8.00$ 7.76$ 7.50$ 7.55$ 7.61$ 7.94$ 8.00$ 7.87$ 7.87$ Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2033-2034 8.01$ 8.32$ 8.40$ 8.46$ 8.12$ 7.87$ 7.89$ 8.03$ 8.35$ 8.39$ 8.19$ 8.25$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2034-2035 8.42$ 8.67$ 8.88$ 8.86$ 8.59$ 8.35$ 8.30$ 8.43$ 8.72$ 8.85$ 8.64$ 8.52$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2035-2036 8.40$ 8.60$ 9.20$ 9.28$ 9.01$ 8.73$ 8.77$ 8.99$ 9.56$ 9.78$ 9.37$ 9.34$
Low Growth_High Prices AECO 2036-2037 9.53$ 10.04$ 10.16$ 10.23$ 9.69$ 9.12$ 9.15$ 9.32$ 9.86$ 9.99$ 9.52$ 9.38$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2017-2018 2.75$ 2.61$ 2.75$ 3.29$ 2.13$ 2.06$ 2.13$ 2.18$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.21$ 2.23$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2018-2019 2.53$ 2.82$ 2.86$ 2.82$ 2.66$ 2.31$ 2.23$ 2.27$ 2.35$ 2.38$ 2.34$ 2.30$ Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2019-2020 2.80$ 3.08$ 3.13$ 3.07$ 2.95$ 2.70$ 2.69$ 2.81$ 2.87$ 2.66$ 2.63$ 2.66$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2020-2021 3.08$ 3.29$ 3.51$ 3.47$ 3.22$ 3.01$ 2.95$ 2.98$ 3.15$ 3.19$ 3.18$ 3.18$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2021-2022 3.64$ 3.82$ 3.89$ 3.88$ 3.65$ 3.39$ 3.36$ 3.36$ 3.49$ 3.52$ 3.57$ 3.53$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2022-2023 3.97$ 4.19$ 4.26$ 4.23$ 4.07$ 3.72$ 3.72$ 3.76$ 3.84$ 3.95$ 3.96$ 3.95$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2023-2024 4.47$ 4.69$ 4.75$ 4.76$ 4.60$ 4.36$ 4.34$ 4.34$ 4.52$ 4.62$ 4.60$ 4.60$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2024-2025 5.00$ 5.15$ 5.22$ 5.23$ 5.01$ 4.77$ 4.74$ 4.80$ 4.91$ 4.95$ 4.94$ 4.89$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2025-2026 5.17$ 5.32$ 5.44$ 5.45$ 5.23$ 5.03$ 4.99$ 5.02$ 5.17$ 5.21$ 5.17$ 5.14$ Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2026-2027 5.41$ 5.65$ 5.75$ 5.77$ 5.55$ 5.38$ 5.32$ 5.48$ 5.69$ 5.68$ 5.66$ 5.63$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2027-2028 5.99$ 6.23$ 6.40$ 6.30$ 6.15$ 5.96$ 5.89$ 6.07$ 6.17$ 6.20$ 6.14$ 6.11$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2028-2029 6.39$ 6.62$ 6.75$ 6.75$ 6.57$ 6.38$ 6.37$ 6.42$ 6.59$ 6.64$ 6.58$ 6.63$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2029-2030 6.87$ 7.17$ 7.27$ 7.29$ 7.12$ 6.88$ 6.87$ 6.92$ 7.08$ 7.14$ 7.14$ 7.18$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2030-2031 7.34$ 7.59$ 7.76$ 7.73$ 7.51$ 7.21$ 7.25$ 7.33$ 7.57$ 7.64$ 7.54$ 7.55$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2031-2032 7.74$ 7.91$ 8.11$ 8.06$ 7.86$ 7.55$ 7.55$ 7.62$ 7.87$ 7.95$ 7.88$ 7.92$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2032-2033 8.09$ 8.41$ 8.51$ 8.51$ 8.29$ 8.01$ 8.02$ 8.09$ 8.44$ 8.47$ 8.33$ 8.33$ Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2033-2034 8.55$ 8.85$ 8.96$ 9.02$ 8.72$ 8.47$ 8.41$ 8.56$ 8.87$ 8.88$ 8.72$ 8.81$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2034-2035 9.02$ 9.25$ 9.47$ 9.48$ 9.16$ 8.92$ 8.82$ 8.96$ 9.23$ 9.35$ 9.18$ 9.15$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2035-2036 9.10$ 9.34$ 9.94$ 9.98$ 9.67$ 9.38$ 9.37$ 9.53$ 10.07$ 10.20$ 9.83$ 9.86$
Low Growth_High Prices Malin 2036-2037 10.22$ 10.80$ 10.87$ 10.92$ 10.35$ 9.76$ 9.72$ 9.81$ 10.32$ 10.41$ 9.96$ 9.98$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2017-2018 2.70$ 2.50$ 3.07$ 3.23$ 2.05$ 1.99$ 2.04$ 2.09$ 2.15$ 2.18$ 2.10$ 2.13$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2018-2019 2.45$ 2.72$ 2.93$ 2.77$ 2.61$ 2.25$ 2.16$ 2.21$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.25$ 2.21$ Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2019-2020 2.72$ 2.98$ 3.19$ 3.01$ 2.90$ 2.64$ 2.63$ 2.74$ 2.79$ 2.57$ 2.54$ 2.57$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2020-2021 2.99$ 3.18$ 3.57$ 3.41$ 3.16$ 2.96$ 2.89$ 2.91$ 3.03$ 3.08$ 3.06$ 3.06$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2021-2022 3.52$ 3.70$ 3.77$ 3.78$ 3.58$ 3.33$ 3.29$ 3.29$ 3.38$ 3.40$ 3.45$ 3.41$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2022-2023 3.84$ 4.06$ 4.13$ 4.10$ 3.99$ 3.60$ 3.63$ 3.66$ 3.71$ 3.82$ 3.83$ 3.81$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2023-2024 4.32$ 4.54$ 4.61$ 4.61$ 4.52$ 4.26$ 4.24$ 4.24$ 4.39$ 4.48$ 4.46$ 4.46$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2024-2025 4.82$ 4.99$ 5.06$ 5.08$ 4.86$ 4.63$ 4.63$ 4.68$ 4.77$ 4.80$ 4.79$ 4.74$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2025-2026 4.98$ 5.16$ 5.28$ 5.30$ 5.07$ 4.88$ 4.86$ 4.89$ 5.03$ 5.06$ 5.02$ 5.00$ Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2026-2027 5.26$ 5.50$ 5.60$ 5.61$ 5.40$ 5.24$ 5.20$ 5.35$ 5.54$ 5.53$ 5.51$ 5.47$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2027-2028 5.83$ 6.07$ 6.23$ 6.14$ 5.99$ 5.81$ 5.80$ 5.98$ 6.02$ 6.04$ 5.99$ 5.95$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2028-2029 6.23$ 6.46$ 6.58$ 6.59$ 6.41$ 6.26$ 6.29$ 6.33$ 6.44$ 6.47$ 6.41$ 6.46$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2029-2030 6.69$ 6.98$ 7.08$ 7.11$ 6.97$ 6.75$ 6.77$ 6.81$ 6.93$ 6.97$ 6.97$ 7.00$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2030-2031 7.16$ 7.40$ 7.57$ 7.54$ 7.36$ 7.10$ 7.14$ 7.22$ 7.39$ 7.45$ 7.35$ 7.36$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2031-2032 7.54$ 7.70$ 7.91$ 7.85$ 7.69$ 7.43$ 7.43$ 7.50$ 7.71$ 7.77$ 7.68$ 7.72$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2032-2033 7.89$ 8.20$ 8.29$ 8.30$ 8.11$ 7.89$ 7.89$ 7.97$ 8.27$ 8.29$ 8.13$ 8.13$ Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2033-2034 8.35$ 8.63$ 8.74$ 8.80$ 8.53$ 8.34$ 8.28$ 8.43$ 8.70$ 8.68$ 8.51$ 8.60$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2034-2035 8.81$ 9.03$ 9.25$ 9.25$ 8.96$ 8.79$ 8.68$ 8.82$ 9.05$ 9.15$ 8.97$ 8.94$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2035-2036 8.88$ 9.11$ 9.71$ 9.75$ 9.47$ 9.24$ 9.22$ 9.38$ 9.89$ 9.99$ 9.61$ 9.64$
Low Growth_High Prices Rockies 2036-2037 9.99$ 10.56$ 10.63$ 10.67$ 10.14$ 9.61$ 9.56$ 9.66$ 10.13$ 10.20$ 9.73$ 9.75$
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 220
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.1: MONTHLY PRICE DATA BY BASIN
LOW GROWTH HIGH PRICE

Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2017-2018 2.68$ 2.60$ 2.80$ 3.26$ 2.04$ 1.96$ 2.01$ 2.03$ 2.12$ 2.16$ 2.08$ 2.07$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2018-2019 2.50$ 2.80$ 2.83$ 2.79$ 2.63$ 2.19$ 2.12$ 2.17$ 2.20$ 2.20$ 2.19$ 2.15$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2019-2020 2.77$ 3.05$ 3.10$ 3.04$ 2.86$ 2.61$ 2.60$ 2.70$ 2.72$ 2.48$ 2.47$ 2.51$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2020-2021 3.04$ 3.25$ 3.47$ 3.43$ 3.15$ 2.94$ 2.86$ 2.87$ 2.98$ 3.00$ 3.01$ 3.03$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2021-2022 3.60$ 3.78$ 3.85$ 3.84$ 3.57$ 3.30$ 3.27$ 3.26$ 3.33$ 3.34$ 3.41$ 3.38$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2022-2023 3.93$ 4.15$ 4.22$ 4.19$ 4.03$ 3.64$ 3.63$ 3.66$ 3.67$ 3.76$ 3.79$ 3.81$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2023-2024 4.43$ 4.65$ 4.71$ 4.71$ 4.56$ 4.29$ 4.29$ 4.27$ 4.34$ 4.46$ 4.47$ 4.51$ Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2024-2025 4.96$ 5.10$ 5.18$ 5.19$ 4.97$ 4.73$ 4.69$ 4.75$ 4.76$ 4.76$ 4.80$ 4.76$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2025-2026 5.13$ 5.27$ 5.39$ 5.40$ 5.18$ 4.96$ 4.92$ 4.96$ 5.00$ 5.02$ 5.03$ 5.01$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2026-2027 5.37$ 5.61$ 5.71$ 5.72$ 5.51$ 5.30$ 5.26$ 5.42$ 5.51$ 5.49$ 5.52$ 5.49$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2027-2028 5.95$ 6.21$ 6.36$ 6.26$ 6.11$ 5.88$ 5.81$ 5.99$ 5.98$ 6.00$ 5.99$ 5.96$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2028-2029 6.35$ 6.58$ 6.73$ 6.71$ 6.52$ 6.29$ 6.29$ 6.33$ 6.39$ 6.44$ 6.39$ 6.46$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2029-2030 6.85$ 7.12$ 7.21$ 7.24$ 7.07$ 6.78$ 6.77$ 6.82$ 6.88$ 6.94$ 6.95$ 6.99$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2030-2031 7.29$ 7.54$ 7.70$ 7.70$ 7.46$ 7.10$ 7.13$ 7.22$ 7.37$ 7.44$ 7.33$ 7.35$ Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2031-2032 7.68$ 7.88$ 8.08$ 8.00$ 7.80$ 7.44$ 7.43$ 7.50$ 7.66$ 7.74$ 7.67$ 7.71$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2032-2033 8.04$ 8.35$ 8.45$ 8.46$ 8.23$ 7.88$ 7.89$ 7.97$ 8.23$ 8.26$ 8.12$ 8.13$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2033-2034 8.49$ 8.82$ 8.93$ 8.99$ 8.66$ 8.33$ 8.28$ 8.45$ 8.66$ 8.66$ 8.50$ 8.60$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2034-2035 8.97$ 9.22$ 9.44$ 9.45$ 9.09$ 8.78$ 8.68$ 8.82$ 9.01$ 9.13$ 8.96$ 8.93$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2035-2036 9.02$ 9.30$ 9.91$ 9.91$ 9.58$ 9.25$ 9.23$ 9.40$ 9.85$ 9.97$ 9.61$ 9.63$
Low Growth_High Prices Stanfield 2036-2037 10.16$ 10.72$ 10.79$ 10.84$ 10.28$ 9.61$ 9.56$ 9.64$ 10.09$ 10.18$ 9.73$ 9.75$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2017-2018 2.69$ 2.78$ 2.72$ 3.20$ 1.98$ 1.80$ 1.75$ 1.80$ 1.98$ 2.01$ 2.01$ 2.10$ Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2018-2019 2.77$ 3.11$ 3.13$ 2.98$ 2.54$ 1.95$ 1.93$ 2.09$ 2.31$ 2.29$ 2.30$ 2.33$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2019-2020 2.89$ 3.44$ 3.47$ 3.24$ 2.70$ 2.26$ 2.24$ 2.24$ 2.38$ 2.41$ 2.40$ 2.52$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2020-2021 3.04$ 3.38$ 3.48$ 3.29$ 3.00$ 2.51$ 2.50$ 2.52$ 2.74$ 2.76$ 2.73$ 2.80$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2021-2022 3.43$ 3.85$ 3.91$ 3.80$ 3.52$ 2.91$ 2.92$ 2.89$ 3.08$ 3.10$ 3.17$ 3.21$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2022-2023 3.77$ 4.22$ 4.25$ 4.09$ 3.84$ 3.24$ 3.27$ 3.29$ 3.43$ 3.53$ 3.57$ 3.61$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2023-2024 4.25$ 4.72$ 4.80$ 4.67$ 4.43$ 3.98$ 3.98$ 3.93$ 4.22$ 4.39$ 4.39$ 4.43$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2024-2025 4.79$ 5.12$ 5.17$ 5.06$ 4.70$ 4.33$ 4.35$ 4.46$ 4.69$ 4.76$ 4.72$ 4.72$ Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2025-2026 4.98$ 5.33$ 5.42$ 5.28$ 4.94$ 4.59$ 4.65$ 4.76$ 5.05$ 5.08$ 5.01$ 5.05$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2026-2027 5.31$ 5.78$ 5.81$ 5.64$ 5.34$ 5.08$ 5.05$ 5.14$ 5.46$ 5.51$ 5.47$ 5.48$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2027-2028 5.86$ 6.42$ 6.49$ 6.23$ 5.92$ 5.63$ 5.60$ 5.78$ 6.02$ 6.10$ 5.99$ 6.02$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2028-2029 6.33$ 6.82$ 6.89$ 6.85$ 6.49$ 6.17$ 6.19$ 6.21$ 6.51$ 6.58$ 6.49$ 6.62$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2029-2030 6.90$ 7.48$ 7.50$ 7.41$ 6.99$ 6.66$ 6.70$ 6.75$ 7.06$ 7.16$ 7.09$ 7.15$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2030-2031 7.32$ 7.87$ 7.97$ 7.85$ 7.41$ 6.98$ 7.09$ 7.15$ 7.53$ 7.60$ 7.52$ 7.55$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2031-2032 7.76$ 8.19$ 8.32$ 8.08$ 7.70$ 7.26$ 7.32$ 7.37$ 7.73$ 7.84$ 7.78$ 7.89$ Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2032-2033 8.06$ 8.69$ 8.75$ 8.62$ 8.19$ 7.75$ 7.79$ 7.84$ 8.31$ 8.37$ 8.27$ 8.29$ Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2033-2034 8.55$ 9.12$ 9.15$ 9.07$ 8.53$ 8.11$ 8.13$ 8.24$ 8.70$ 8.74$ 8.57$ 8.64$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2034-2035 8.95$ 9.46$ 9.62$ 9.47$ 8.98$ 8.58$ 8.51$ 8.62$ 9.05$ 9.18$ 9.01$ 8.90$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2035-2036 8.95$ 9.39$ 9.94$ 9.88$ 9.41$ 8.96$ 8.99$ 9.20$ 9.90$ 10.11$ 9.73$ 9.71$
Low Growth_High Prices Sumas 2036-2037 10.04$ 10.81$ 10.90$ 10.82$ 10.08$ 9.35$ 9.38$ 9.52$ 10.19$ 10.32$ 9.88$ 9.77$
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 221
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.2: WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL

From 2015 Rate Case Settlement
Cost of Capital Percent of
Total Capital Cost Component After Tax
L/T Debt 51.50% 5.20% 2.68% 1.74%

Common Equity 48.50% 9.50% 4.61% 4.61%

TOTAL 100.00%7.29% 6.35%
From 2017 Rate Case Settlement
Cost of Capital Percent of
Total Capital Cost Component
L/T Debt 50.00% 5.72% 2.86% 1.86%

Common Equity 50.00% 9.50% 4.75% 4.75%
TOTAL 100.00%7.61% 6.61%
From 2016 Rate Case Settlement
Cost of Capital Percent of
Total Capital Cost Component
L/T Debt 50.00% 5.30% 2.65% 1.72%
Common Equity 50.00% 9.40% 4.70% 4.70%
TOTAL 100.00%7.35% 6.42%
Gas Net Rate Base AMA Thru November 2017
WA 311,457$ 45%
ID 146,468$ 21%
OR 227,301$ 33%
685,226$
System Weighted Average Cost of Capital (Nominal)*6.45%
GDP price deflator 2.00%
Real After Tax WACC 4.36%
OREGON
WASHINGTON
IDAHO
Avista Corporation Captial Structure and Overall Rate of Return
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 222
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.3: POTENTIAL SUPPLY SIDE RESOURCE OPTIONS

Additional Resource Size Availability Notes
Unsubscribed GTN Capacity Up to 50,000 Dth Now Currently available unsubscribed capacity from Kingsgate to
Spokane
Medford Lateral Exp 50,000 Dth / Day 2019 Additional compression to facilitate more gas to flow from
mainline GTN to Medford
WA ID OR
$48 / Dth $40 / Dth $46 / Dth
WA ID OR
$13 / Dth $13 / Dth $13 / Dth
WA ID OR
$11 / Dth $11 / Dth $12 / Dth
WA ID OR
$34 / Dth $39 / Dth $33 / Dth
WA ID OR
$19 / Dth $18 / Dth $19 / Dth
WA ID OR
$38 / Dth $39 / Dth $38 / Dth
Plymouth LNG
241,700 Dth
w/70,500 Dth deliverability 2018
Provides for peaking services and alleviates the need for costly pipeline expansions
Pair with excess pipeline MDDO’s to create firm transport
Hydrogen 166 Dth / Day 2020
Cost estimates obtained from a consultant; levelized cost
includes revenue requirements, expected carbon adder and
assumed retail power rate
Renewable Natural Gas –
Distributed Landfill 635 Dth / Day
NWP Rate
2020
Costs estimates obtained from a consultant for each specific
type of RNG; levelized costs include revenue requirements,
distribution costs, and projected carbon intensity adder/(savings)
2020Renewable Natural Gas – Dairy 635 Dth / Day
Renewable Natural Gas – Waste
Water 513 Dth / Day 2020
2020298 Dth / DayRenewable Natural Gas – Food Waste to (RNG)
Renewable Natural Gas –
Centralized Landfill 1,814 Dth / Day
Cost/Rates
GTN Rate
$35M capital + GTN Rate
2020
Future Supply Resources Size Cost/Rates Availability Notes
Co. Owned LNG
600,000 Dth w/
150,000 of
deliverability
$75 Million plus
$2 Million annual
O&M
2024
On site, in service territory
liquefaction and vaporization
facility
Various pipelines – Pacific
Connector, Cross-Cascades, etc.Varies Precedent
Agreement Rates 2022
Requires additional mainline
capacity on NWPL or GTN to
get to service territory
Large Scale LNG Varies Commodity less
Fuel 2024 Speculative, needs pipeline
transport
In Ground Storage Varies Varies Varies
Requires additional mainline
transport to get to service
territory
Satellite LNG Varies $13M capital cost
plus 665k O&M 2022
provides for peaking services
and alleviates the need for
costly pipeline expansions.
$3,000 per m3 with O&M
assumed at 5.4%.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 223
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: EXPECTED CASE AVOIDED COST

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
4
1
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
6
$

1.4
2
$

2.
7
1
$

1.
4
2
$

1.4
2
$

1.
4
2
$

1
.
4
1
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
6
$

1.
7
9
$

1.
7
9
$

1.6
8
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
5
9
$

1
.
4
7
$

2
.
7
2
$

1.6
0
$

2.
7
5
$

1.
6
0
$

1.6
0
$

1.
6
0
$

1
.
7
7
$

1
.
6
5
$

2
.
9
0
$

1.
9
3
$

2.
1
0
$

1.8
3
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
8
0
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
7
0
$

1.8
1
$

2.
7
3
$

1.
8
1
$

1.8
1
$

1.
8
1
$

2
.
3
3
$

2
.
2
1
$

3
.
2
3
$

2.
0
6
$

2.
5
9
$

1.9
9
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
6
5
$

2.8
1
$

3.
4
7
$

2.
8
1
$

2.8
1
$

2.
8
1
$

2
.
6
6
$

2
.
5
4
$

3
.
2
6
$

2.
2
0
$

2.
8
2
$

2.9
5
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

2
.
2
8
$

2
.
2
0
$

2
.
6
9
$

3.3
0
$

3.
7
3
$

3.
3
0
$

3.3
0
$

3.
3
0
$

3
.
0
1
$

2
.
9
3
$

3
.
4
2
$

2.
3
9
$

3.
1
2
$

3.3
9
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

2
.
4
4
$

2
.
3
6
$

2
.
8
5
$

3.5
2
$

3.
9
5
$

3.
5
2
$

3.5
2
$

3.
5
2
$

3
.
2
7
$

3
.
1
9
$

3
.
6
8
$

2.
5
5
$

3.
3
8
$

3.6
1
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

2
.
8
9
$

2
.
7
8
$

3
.
3
7
$

4.0
4
$

4.
5
4
$

4.
0
4
$

4.0
4
$

4.
0
4
$

3
.
8
3
$

3
.
7
2
$

4
.
3
1
$

3.
0
2
$

3.
9
5
$

4.1
4
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

3
.
1
2
$

3
.
0
1
$

3
.
6
8
$

4.3
5
$

4.
9
2
$

4.
3
5
$

4.3
5
$

4.
3
5
$

4
.
1
6
$

4
.
0
5
$

4
.
7
2
$

3.
2
7
$

4.
3
1
$

4.4
6
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

3
.
2
4
$

3
.
1
3
$

3
.
7
8
$

4.5
6
$

5.
1
1
$

4.
5
6
$

4.5
6
$

4.
5
6
$

4
.
3
9
$

4
.
2
8
$

4
.
9
3
$

3.
3
8
$

4.
5
3
$

4.6
7
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

3
.
4
9
$

3
.
3
8
$

3
.
9
2
$

4.9
0
$

5.
3
3
$

4.
9
0
$

4.9
0
$

4.
9
0
$

4
.
7
5
$

4
.
6
4
$

5
.
1
7
$

3.
6
0
$

4.
8
5
$

4.9
9
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

3
.
8
2
$

3
.
7
1
$

4
.
2
6
$

5.3
2
$

5.
7
7
$

5.
3
2
$

5.3
2
$

5.
3
2
$

5
.
1
8
$

5
.
0
7
$

5
.
6
2
$

3.
9
3
$

5.
2
9
$

5.4
1
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

4
.
1
1
$

4
.
0
1
$

4
.
4
9
$

5.7
4
$

6.
1
0
$

5.
7
4
$

5.7
4
$

5.
7
4
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
4
7
$

5
.
9
5
$

4.
2
0
$

5.
6
7
$

5.8
1
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

4
.
4
2
$

4
.
3
3
$

4
.
7
9
$

6.1
8
$

6.
5
2
$

6.
1
8
$

6.1
8
$

6.
1
8
$

5
.
9
9
$

5
.
9
0
$

6
.
3
6
$

4.
5
1
$

6.
0
9
$

6.2
5
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

4
.
6
3
$

4
.
5
4
$

4
.
9
9
$

6.5
2
$

6.
8
4
$

6.
5
2
$

6.5
2
$

6.
5
2
$

6
.
2
2
$

6
.
1
3
$

6
.
5
8
$

4.
7
2
$

6.
3
1
$

6.5
8
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

4
.
7
7
$

4
.
6
7
$

5
.
1
9
$

6.7
8
$

7.
1
8
$

6.
7
8
$

6.7
8
$

6.
7
8
$

6
.
3
6
$

6
.
2
6
$

6
.
7
8
$

4.
8
8
$

6.
4
7
$

6.8
6
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

5
.
0
2
$

4
.
9
3
$

5
.
4
4
$

7.1
8
$

7.
5
6
$

7.
1
8
$

7.1
8
$

7.
1
8
$

6
.
6
1
$

6
.
5
2
$

7
.
0
3
$

5.
1
3
$

6.
7
2
$

7.2
6
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

5
.
2
1
$

5
.
1
1
$

5
.
6
7
$

7.5
1
$

7.
9
4
$

7.
5
1
$

7.5
1
$

7.
5
1
$

6
.
8
0
$

6
.
7
0
$

7
.
2
6
$

5.
3
3
$

6.
9
2
$

7.6
0
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

5
.
4
1
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
9
0
$

7.8
8
$

8.
3
2
$

7.
8
8
$

7.8
8
$

7.
8
8
$

7
.
0
1
$

6
.
9
0
$

7
.
4
9
$

5.
5
4
$

7.
1
3
$

7.9
7
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

5
.
6
6
$

5
.
5
5
$

6
.
1
4
$

8.3
2
$

8.
7
1
$

8.
3
2
$

8.3
2
$

8.
3
2
$

7
.
2
5
$

7
.
1
4
$

7
.
7
3
$

5.
7
8
$

7.
3
7
$

8.4
0
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

5
.
9
4
$

5
.
8
5
$

6
.
2
1
$

8.7
6
$

8.
9
7
$

8.
7
4
$

8.7
4
$

8.
7
4
$

7
.
5
3
$

7
.
4
4
$

7
.
8
1
$

6.
0
0
$

7.
5
9
$

8.7
9
$

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

2
.
0
0
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
7
$

2.1
0
$

2.
6
5
$

2.
1
0
$

2.1
0
$

2.
1
0
$

2
.
0
0
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
7
$

2.
1
0
$

2.
1
0
$

2.2
1
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
6
7
$

2.0
7
$

2.
7
6
$

2.
0
7
$

2.0
7
$

2.
0
7
$

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
6
7
$

2.
0
6
$

2.
0
6
$

2.2
1
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

2
.
1
1
$

1
.
8
2
$

2
.
7
7
$

2.2
9
$

2.
8
4
$

2.
2
9
$

2.2
9
$

2.
2
9
$

2
.
6
5
$

2
.
3
5
$

3
.
3
0
$

2.
2
4
$

2.
7
7
$

2.4
0
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
1
8
$

1
.
9
0
$

2
.
6
5
$

2.3
0
$

2.
7
4
$

2.
3
0
$

2.3
0
$

2.
3
0
$

2
.
7
1
$

2
.
4
3
$

3
.
1
9
$

2.
2
5
$

2.
7
8
$

2.3
9
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

2
.
4
7
$

2
.
2
4
$

2
.
7
0
$

3.5
1
$

3.
7
7
$

3.
5
1
$

3.5
1
$

3.
5
1
$

3
.
1
1
$

2
.
8
8
$

3
.
3
4
$

2.
4
7
$

3.
1
1
$

3.5
6
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

2
.
6
3
$

2
.
4
1
$

2
.
8
6
$

3.7
4
$

3.
9
8
$

3.
7
4
$

3.7
4
$

3.
7
4
$

3
.
3
7
$

3
.
1
5
$

3
.
6
1
$

2.
6
3
$

3.
3
8
$

3.7
9
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

2
.
9
7
$

2
.
7
1
$

3
.
3
1
$

4.1
6
$

4.
4
6
$

4.
1
6
$

4.1
6
$

4.
1
6
$

3
.
8
2
$

3
.
5
6
$

4
.
1
6
$

3.
0
0
$

3.
8
5
$

4.2
2
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

3
.
3
1
$

3
.
0
5
$

3
.
6
3
$

4.5
8
$

4.
8
4
$

4.
5
8
$

4.5
8
$

4.
5
8
$

4
.
2
6
$

4
.
0
0
$

4
.
5
8
$

3.
3
3
$

4.
2
8
$

4.6
3
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

3
.
3
9
$

3
.
1
1
$

3
.
7
4
$

4.7
5
$

5.
0
2
$

4.
7
5
$

4.7
5
$

4.
7
5
$

4
.
4
5
$

4
.
1
7
$

4
.
8
0
$

3.
4
1
$

4.
4
7
$

4.8
0
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

3
.
5
8
$

3
.
3
1
$

3
.
8
6
$

4.9
8
$

5.
2
3
$

4.
9
8
$

4.9
8
$

4.
9
8
$

4
.
7
5
$

4
.
4
7
$

5
.
0
2
$

3.
5
8
$

4.
7
5
$

5.0
3
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

3
.
9
3
$

3
.
6
6
$

4
.
2
0
$

5.4
1
$

5.
6
5
$

5.
4
1
$

5.4
1
$

5.
4
1
$

5
.
2
0
$

4
.
9
4
$

5
.
4
8
$

3.
9
3
$

5.
2
1
$

5.4
5
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

4
.
1
9
$

3
.
9
3
$

4
.
4
4
$

5.7
9
$

5.
9
8
$

5.
7
9
$

5.7
9
$

5.
7
9
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
8
2
$

4.
1
9
$

5.
5
7
$

5.8
3
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

4
.
5
6
$

4
.
3
1
$

4
.
7
8
$

6.2
8
$

6.
4
4
$

6.
2
8
$

6.2
8
$

6.
2
8
$

6
.
0
4
$

5
.
8
0
$

6
.
2
7
$

4.
5
5
$

6.
0
4
$

6.3
1
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

4
.
7
4
$

4
.
4
9
$

4
.
9
7
$

6.6
1
$

6.
7
7
$

6.
6
1
$

6.6
1
$

6.
6
1
$

6
.
3
3
$

6
.
0
8
$

6
.
5
7
$

4.
7
4
$

6.
3
3
$

6.6
4
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

4
.
9
3
$

4
.
6
8
$

5
.
1
4
$

6.9
2
$

7.
0
7
$

6.
9
2
$

6.9
2
$

6.
9
2
$

6
.
5
2
$

6
.
2
7
$

6
.
7
3
$

4.
9
2
$

6.
5
1
$

6.9
5
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

5
.
1
4
$

4
.
8
9
$

5
.
4
1
$

7.2
8
$

7.
4
7
$

7.
2
8
$

7.2
8
$

7.
2
8
$

6
.
7
4
$

6
.
4
9
$

7
.
0
1
$

5.
1
5
$

6.
7
4
$

7.3
2
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

5
.
3
8
$

5
.
1
3
$

5
.
6
2
$

7.6
5
$

7.
8
2
$

7.
6
5
$

7.6
5
$

7.
6
5
$

6
.
9
7
$

6
.
7
2
$

7
.
2
1
$

5.
3
8
$

6.
9
7
$

7.6
9
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

5
.
5
6
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
8
4
$

8.0
0
$

8.
1
7
$

8.
0
0
$

8.0
0
$

8.
0
0
$

7
.
1
6
$

6
.
9
1
$

7
.
4
3
$

5.
5
7
$

7.
1
6
$

8.0
3
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

5
.
4
7
$

5
.
1
8
$

6
.
0
8
$

8.2
1
$

8.
5
2
$

8.
2
1
$

8.2
1
$

8.
2
1
$

7
.
0
6
$

6
.
7
7
$

7
.
6
7
$

5.
5
7
$

7.
1
7
$

8.2
7
$

Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

6
.
1
9
$

5
.
9
4
$

6
.
4
3
$

8.9
7
$

9.
1
4
$

8.
9
7
$

8.9
7
$

8.
9
7
$

7
.
7
8
$

7
.
5
3
$

8
.
0
2
$

6.
1
8
$

7.
7
8
$

9.0
0
$

1/

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

c
o
s
t
s

a
r
e

b
e
f
o
r
e

E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l
i
t
i
e
s

a
d
d
e
r
.
An
n
u
a
l

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Wi
n
t
e
r

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 224
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: LOW GROWTH CASE AVOIDED COST

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
4
1
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
7
9
$

1.4
2
$

2.
8
3
$

1.
4
2
$

1.4
2
$

1.
4
2
$

1
.
4
1
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
7
9
$

1.
8
4
$

1.8
4
$

1.7
0
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
7
6
$

1
.
6
4
$

2
.
8
6
$

1.7
6
$

2.
8
9
$

1.
7
6
$

1.7
6
$

1.
7
6
$

1
.
9
3
$

1
.
8
2
$

3
.
0
4
$

2.
0
9
$

2.2
7
$

1.9
8
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

2
.
1
4
$

2
.
0
3
$

2
.
9
7
$

2.1
3
$

2.
9
9
$

2.
1
3
$

2.1
3
$

2.
1
3
$

2
.
6
7
$

2
.
5
6
$

3
.
5
0
$

2.
3
8
$

2.9
1
$

2.3
1
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
5
6
$

2
.
4
7
$

3
.
1
5
$

3.3
5
$

3.
9
6
$

3.
3
5
$

3.3
5
$

3.
3
5
$

3
.
1
8
$

3
.
0
9
$

3
.
7
7
$

2.
7
2
$

3.3
4
$

3.4
7
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

3
.
0
2
$

2
.
9
7
$

3
.
4
1
$

4.0
6
$

4.
4
4
$

4.
0
6
$

4.0
6
$

4.
0
6
$

3
.
7
5
$

3
.
6
9
$

4
.
1
4
$

3.
1
3
$

3.8
6
$

4.1
4
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

3
.
4
2
$

3
.
3
6
$

3
.
8
2
$

4.5
3
$

4.
9
2
$

4.
5
3
$

4.5
3
$

4.
5
3
$

4
.
2
5
$

4
.
1
9
$

4
.
6
5
$

3.
5
3
$

4.3
6
$

4.6
1
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

4
.
1
1
$

4
.
0
1
$

4
.
5
9
$

5.2
8
$

5.
7
6
$

5.
2
8
$

5.2
8
$

5.
2
8
$

5
.
0
5
$

4
.
9
5
$

5
.
5
3
$

4.
2
4
$

5.1
8
$

5.3
8
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

4
.
5
2
$

4
.
4
3
$

5
.
0
8
$

5.7
8
$

6.
3
2
$

5.
7
8
$

5.7
8
$

5.
7
8
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
4
7
$

6
.
1
3
$

4.
6
8
$

5.7
2
$

5.8
9
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

4
.
7
9
$

4
.
7
0
$

5
.
3
0
$

6.1
4
$

6.
6
2
$

6.
1
4
$

6.1
4
$

6.
1
4
$

5
.
9
4
$

5
.
8
4
$

6
.
4
5
$

4.
9
3
$

6.0
8
$

6.2
4
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

5
.
2
4
$

5
.
1
5
$

5
.
6
3
$

6.6
9
$

7.
0
4
$

6.
6
9
$

6.6
9
$

6.
6
9
$

6
.
4
9
$

6
.
4
1
$

6
.
8
9
$

5.
3
4
$

6.6
0
$

6.7
6
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

5
.
8
2
$

5
.
7
4
$

6
.
2
5
$

7.3
8
$

7.
7
6
$

7.
3
8
$

7.3
8
$

7.
3
8
$

7
.
1
8
$

7
.
1
0
$

7
.
6
1
$

5.
9
4
$

7.3
0
$

7.4
6
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

6
.
3
0
$

6
.
2
3
$

6
.
6
6
$

7.9
8
$

8.
2
7
$

7.
9
8
$

7.9
8
$

7.
9
8
$

7
.
7
7
$

7
.
6
9
$

8
.
1
3
$

6.
4
0
$

7.8
6
$

8.0
4
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

6
.
8
3
$

6
.
7
6
$

7
.
1
7
$

8.6
3
$

8.
9
0
$

8.
6
3
$

8.6
3
$

8.
6
3
$

8
.
4
0
$

8
.
3
4
$

8
.
7
5
$

6.
9
2
$

8.5
0
$

8.6
9
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

7
.
2
3
$

7
.
1
7
$

7
.
5
5
$

9.1
8
$

9.
4
0
$

9.
1
8
$

9.1
8
$

9.
1
8
$

8
.
8
2
$

8
.
7
6
$

9
.
1
5
$

7.
3
2
$

8.9
1
$

9.2
2
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

7
.
5
2
$

7
.
4
6
$

7
.
9
1
$

9.6
0
$

9.
8
9
$

9.
6
0
$

9.6
0
$

9.
6
0
$

9
.
1
1
$

9
.
0
5
$

9
.
5
0
$

7.
6
3
$

9.2
2
$

9.6
6
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

8
.
0
0
$

7
.
9
4
$

8
.
3
7
$

10
.
2
2
$

10
.
4
8
$

10
.
2
2
$

10
.
2
2
$

10
.
2
2
$

9.
5
9
$

9
.
5
3
$

9
.
9
6
$

8.
1
0
$

9.6
9
$

10
.
2
7
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

8
.
4
0
$

8
.
3
5
$

8
.
8
1
$

10
.
7
9
$

11
.
0
8
$

10
.
7
9
$

10
.
7
9
$

10
.
7
9
$

9.
9
9
$

9
.
9
4
$

1
0
.
4
0
$

8.
5
2
$

10
.
1
1
$

10
.
8
5
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

8
.
8
2
$

8
.
7
7
$

9
.
2
1
$

11
.
3
8
$

11
.
6
4
$

11
.
3
8
$

11
.
3
8
$

11
.
3
8
$

1
0
.
4
1
$

1
0
.
3
6
$

1
0
.
8
0
$

8.
9
3
$

10
.
5
2
$

11
.
4
3
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

9
.
3
3
$

9
.
2
6
$

9
.
8
2
$

12
.
0
6
$

12
.
3
8
$

12
.
0
6
$

12
.
0
6
$

12
.
0
6
$

1
0
.
9
3
$

1
0
.
8
5
$

1
1
.
4
1
$

9.
4
7
$

11
.
0
6
$

12
.
1
2
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

9
.
8
7
$

9
.
8
5
$

1
0
.
1
5
$

12
.
7
9
$

12
.
9
3
$

12
.
7
8
$

12
.
7
8
$

12
.
7
8
$

1
1
.
4
6
$

1
1
.
4
4
$

1
1
.
7
4
$

9.
9
6
$

11
.
5
5
$

12
.
8
1
$

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
9
9
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
7
2
$

2.1
2
$

2.
7
8
$

2.
1
2
$

2.1
2
$

2.
1
2
$

1
.
9
9
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
7
2
$

(2
.
1
4
)
$

(2
.
1
4
)
$

(2
.
2
6
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

2
.
0
8
$

1
.
7
8
$

2
.
8
2
$

2.1
8
$

2.
8
9
$

2.
1
8
$

2.1
8
$

2.
1
8
$

2
.
0
8
$

1
.
7
8
$

2
.
8
2
$

(2
.
2
3
)
$

(2
.
2
3
)
$

(2
.
3
2
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

2
.
4
5
$

2
.
1
8
$

2
.
9
2
$

2.5
3
$

2.
9
9
$

2.
5
3
$

2.5
3
$

2.
5
3
$

2
.
9
8
$

2
.
7
1
$

3
.
4
5
$

(2
.
5
2
)
$

(3
.
0
5
)
$

(2
.
6
2
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
7
2
$

2
.
4
5
$

3
.
0
9
$

2.7
7
$

3.
1
6
$

2.
7
7
$

2.7
7
$

2.
7
7
$

3
.
2
5
$

2
.
9
8
$

3
.
6
2
$

(2
.
7
5
)
$

(3
.
2
8
)
$

(2
.
8
5
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

3
.
1
9
$

3
.
0
2
$

3
.
3
7
$

4.2
0
$

4.
4
0
$

4.
2
0
$

4.2
0
$

4.
2
0
$

3
.
8
3
$

3
.
6
6
$

4
.
0
1
$

(3
.
1
9
)
$

(3
.
8
3
)
$

(4
.
2
4
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

3
.
5
8
$

3
.
4
1
$

3
.
7
8
$

4.6
6
$

4.
8
7
$

4.
6
6
$

4.6
6
$

4.
6
6
$

4
.
3
2
$

4
.
1
6
$

4
.
5
2
$

(3
.
5
9
)
$

(4
.
3
3
)
$

(4
.
7
0
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

4
.
1
7
$

3
.
9
2
$

4
.
5
3
$

5.3
3
$

5.
6
6
$

5.
3
3
$

5.3
3
$

5.
3
3
$

5
.
0
2
$

4
.
7
7
$

5
.
3
8
$

(4
.
2
1
)
$

(5
.
0
6
)
$

(5
.
4
0
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

4
.
7
1
$

4
.
4
7
$

5
.
0
3
$

5.9
6
$

6.
2
4
$

5.
9
6
$

5.9
6
$

5.
9
6
$

5
.
6
7
$

5
.
4
2
$

5
.
9
9
$

(4
.
7
4
)
$

(5
.
6
9
)
$

(6
.
0
1
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

4
.
9
0
$

4
.
6
6
$

5
.
2
5
$

6.2
5
$

6.
5
3
$

6.
2
5
$

6.2
5
$

6.
2
5
$

5
.
9
6
$

5
.
7
2
$

6
.
3
1
$

(4
.
9
4
)
$

(6
.
0
0
)
$

(6
.
3
0
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

5
.
2
7
$

5
.
0
3
$

5
.
5
6
$

6.6
7
$

6.
9
2
$

6.
6
7
$

6.6
7
$

6.
6
7
$

6
.
4
3
$

6
.
2
0
$

6
.
7
3
$

(5
.
2
9
)
$

(6
.
4
6
)
$

(6
.
7
2
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

5
.
8
8
$

5
.
6
5
$

6
.
2
0
$

7.3
6
$

7.
6
4
$

7.
3
6
$

7.3
6
$

7.
3
6
$

7
.
1
5
$

6
.
9
3
$

7
.
4
7
$

(5
.
9
1
)
$

(7
.
1
8
)
$

(7
.
4
2
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

6
.
3
2
$

6
.
1
0
$

6
.
6
0
$

7.9
0
$

8.
1
4
$

7.
9
0
$

7.9
0
$

7.
9
0
$

7
.
7
0
$

7
.
4
8
$

7
.
9
8
$

(6
.
3
4
)
$

(7
.
7
2
)
$

(7
.
9
5
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

6
.
8
8
$

6
.
6
9
$

7
.
1
2
$

8.5
8
$

8.
7
5
$

8.
5
8
$

8.5
8
$

8.
5
8
$

8
.
3
6
$

8
.
1
8
$

8
.
6
0
$

(6
.
9
0
)
$

(8
.
3
8
)
$

(8
.
6
1
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

7
.
2
4
$

7
.
0
7
$

7
.
5
2
$

9.1
2
$

9.
3
0
$

9.
1
2
$

9.1
2
$

9.
1
2
$

8
.
8
3
$

8
.
6
6
$

9
.
1
1
$

(7
.
2
8
)
$

(8
.
8
7
)
$

(9
.
1
5
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

7
.
6
1
$

7
.
4
3
$

7
.
8
6
$

9.6
2
$

9.
7
7
$

9.
6
2
$

9.6
2
$

9.
6
2
$

9
.
2
1
$

9
.
0
3
$

9
.
4
5
$

(7
.
6
3
)
$

(9
.
2
3
)
$

(9
.
6
5
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

8
.
0
2
$

7
.
8
6
$

8
.
3
3
$

10
.
1
4
$

10
.
3
4
$

10
.
1
4
$

10
.
1
4
$

10
.
1
4
$

9.
6
1
$

9
.
4
5
$

9
.
9
2
$

(8
.
0
7
)
$

(9
.
6
6
)
$

(1
0
.
1
8
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

8
.
4
9
$

8
.
3
2
$

8
.
7
6
$

10
.
7
9
$

10
.
9
5
$

10
.
7
9
$

10
.
7
9
$

10
.
7
9
$

1
0
.
0
8
$

9.9
2
$

1
0
.
3
5
$

(8
.
5
2
)
$

(1
0
.
1
1
)
$

(1
0
.
8
2
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

8
.
8
8
$

8
.
7
1
$

9
.
1
4
$

11
.
3
7
$

11
.
5
2
$

11
.
3
7
$

11
.
3
7
$

11
.
3
7
$

1
0
.
4
7
$

1
0
.
3
0
$

1
0
.
7
4
$

(8
.
9
1
)
$

(1
0
.
5
0
)
$

(1
1
.
4
0
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

8
.
8
9
$

8
.
6
7
$

9
.
6
1
$

11
.
6
8
$

12
.
0
5
$

11
.
6
8
$

11
.
6
8
$

11
.
6
8
$

1
0
.
4
8
$

1
0
.
2
6
$

1
1
.
2
0
$

(9
.
0
6
)
$

(1
0
.
6
5
)
$

(1
1
.
7
5
)
$

Lo
w

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

H
i
g
h

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

1
0
.
0
5
$

9.
9
8
$

1
0
.
3
2
$

13
.
0
0
$

13
.
1
4
$

13
.
0
0
$

13
.
0
0
$

13
.
0
0
$

1
1
.
6
4
$

1
1
.
5
7
$

1
1
.
9
1
$

(1
0
.
1
2
)
$

(1
1
.
7
1
)
$

(1
3
.
0
2
)
$

1/
A
v
o
i
d
e
d

c
o
s
t
s

a
r
e

b
e
f
o
r
e

E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l
i
t
i
e
s

a
d
d
e
r
.
An
n
u
a
l

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Win
t
e
r

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 225
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: HIGH GROWTH CASE AVOIDED COST

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
4
2
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
7
$

1.4
4
$

2.7
2
$

1.4
4
$

1.4
4
$

1.4
4
$

1
.
4
2
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
7
$

1.8
0
$

1.
8
0
$

1.6
9
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
4
3
$

1
.
3
0
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.4
5
$

2.6
7
$

1.4
5
$

1.4
5
$

1.4
5
$

1
.
4
3
$

1
.
3
0
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.7
9
$

1.
7
9
$

1.7
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
4
7
$

1
.
3
4
$

2
.
4
4
$

1.4
8
$

2.4
7
$

1.4
8
$

1.4
8
$

1.4
8
$

1
.
4
7
$

1
.
3
4
$

2
.
4
4
$

1.7
5
$

1.
7
5
$

1.6
8
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

1
.
5
1
$

1
.
3
8
$

2
.
1
8
$

1.4
9
$

2.2
2
$

1.4
9
$

1.4
9
$

1.4
9
$

1
.
5
1
$

1
.
3
8
$

2
.
1
8
$

1.6
9
$

1.
6
9
$

1.6
4
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

1
.
5
6
$

1
.
4
4
$

2
.
0
0
$

1.5
3
$

2.0
6
$

1.5
3
$

1.5
3
$

1.5
3
$

1
.
5
6
$

1
.
4
4
$

2
.
0
0
$

1.6
7
$

1.
6
7
$

1.6
4
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

1
.
4
7
$

1
.
3
5
$

1
.
8
8
$

1.4
4
$

1.9
6
$

1.4
4
$

1.4
4
$

1.4
4
$

1
.
4
7
$

1
.
3
5
$

1
.
8
8
$

1.5
7
$

1.
5
7
$

1.5
4
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

1
.
6
9
$

1
.
5
6
$

2
.
1
7
$

1.6
7
$

2.2
2
$

1.6
7
$

1.6
7
$

1.6
7
$

1
.
6
9
$

1
.
5
6
$

2
.
1
7
$

1.8
0
$

1.
8
0
$

1.7
8
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

1
.
7
3
$

1
.
5
9
$

2
.
3
0
$

1.7
1
$

2.3
6
$

1.7
1
$

1.7
1
$

1.7
1
$

1
.
7
3
$

1
.
5
9
$

2
.
3
0
$

1.8
7
$

1.
8
7
$

1.8
4
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

1
.
6
9
$

1
.
5
6
$

2
.
2
7
$

1.6
8
$

2.3
1
$

1.6
8
$

1.6
8
$

1.6
8
$

1
.
6
9
$

1
.
5
6
$

2
.
2
7
$

1.8
4
$

1.
8
4
$

1.8
1
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

1
.
7
4
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
2
4
$

1.7
6
$

2.2
8
$

1.7
6
$

1.7
6
$

1.7
6
$

1
.
7
4
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
2
4
$

1.8
7
$

1.
8
7
$

1.8
7
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

1
.
8
1
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
2
4
$

1.8
1
$

2.2
8
$

1.8
1
$

1.8
1
$

1.8
1
$

1
.
8
1
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
2
4
$

1.9
1
$

1.
9
1
$

1.9
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
7
9
$

2
.
2
6
$

1.9
2
$

2.3
2
$

1.9
2
$

1.9
2
$

1.9
2
$

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
7
9
$

2
.
2
6
$

1.9
9
$

1.
9
9
$

2.0
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

2
.
0
1
$

1
.
8
9
$

2
.
4
0
$

2.0
2
$

2.4
1
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2
.
0
1
$

1
.
8
9
$

2
.
4
0
$

2.1
0
$

2.
1
0
$

2.1
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
1
$

2.0
5
$

2.4
4
$

2.0
5
$

2.0
5
$

2.0
5
$

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
1
$

2.1
2
$

2.
1
2
$

2.1
3
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

2
.
0
5
$

1
.
8
8
$

2
.
5
0
$

2.0
2
$

2.5
3
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2
.
0
5
$

1
.
8
8
$

2
.
5
0
$

2.1
4
$

2.
1
4
$

2.1
2
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

2
.
0
8
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
9
$

2.0
6
$

2.5
1
$

2.0
6
$

2.0
6
$

2.0
6
$

2
.
0
8
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
9
$

2.1
6
$

2.
1
6
$

2.1
5
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
8
8
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.0
2
$

2.5
6
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
8
8
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.1
5
$

2.
1
5
$

2.1
3
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
8
6
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.0
1
$

2.5
8
$

2.0
1
$

2.0
1
$

2.0
1
$

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
8
6
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.1
5
$

2.
1
5
$

2.1
3
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

2
.
0
1
$

1
.
8
3
$

2
.
5
2
$

2.0
3
$

2.5
7
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

2
.
0
1
$

1
.
8
3
$

2
.
5
2
$

2.1
2
$

2.
1
2
$

2.1
4
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

2
.
0
2
$

1
.
8
5
$

2
.
2
8
$

2.0
0
$

2.3
6
$

5.0
1
$

5.0
1
$

5.0
1
$

2
.
0
2
$

1
.
8
5
$

2
.
2
8
$

2.0
5
$

2.
0
5
$

3.8
8
$

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

2
.
0
1
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
6
2
$

2.1
7
$

2.6
9
$

2.1
7
$

2.1
7
$

2.1
7
$

2
.
0
1
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
6
2
$

2.1
1
$

2.
1
1
$

2.2
7
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
7
5
$

1
.
4
3
$

2
.
6
3
$

2.0
2
$

2.7
1
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2.0
2
$

1
.
7
5
$

1
.
4
3
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.9
4
$

1.
9
4
$

2.1
5
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
7
8
$

1
.
4
6
$

2
.
6
4
$

2.0
3
$

2.6
8
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

1
.
7
8
$

1
.
4
6
$

2
.
6
4
$

1.9
6
$

1.
9
6
$

2.1
6
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

1
.
6
5
$

1
.
3
5
$

2
.
2
9
$

1.8
6
$

2.3
5
$

1.8
6
$

1.8
6
$

1.8
6
$

1
.
6
5
$

1
.
3
5
$

2
.
2
9
$

1.7
6
$

1.
7
6
$

1.9
6
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

1
.
7
6
$

1
.
4
6
$

2
.
0
9
$

1.8
6
$

2.2
4
$

1.8
6
$

1.8
6
$

1.8
6
$

1
.
7
6
$

1
.
4
6
$

2
.
0
9
$

1.7
7
$

1.
7
7
$

1.9
4
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

1
.
7
1
$

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
9
3
$

1.7
5
$

2.1
4
$

1.7
5
$

1.7
5
$

1.7
5
$

1
.
7
1
$

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
9
3
$

1.6
8
$

1.
6
8
$

1.8
3
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

1
.
8
3
$

1
.
5
1
$

2
.
1
5
$

1.9
5
$

2.3
2
$

1.9
5
$

1.9
5
$

1.9
5
$

1
.
8
3
$

1
.
5
1
$

2
.
1
5
$

1.8
3
$

1.
8
3
$

2.0
2
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

1
.
9
5
$

1
.
6
3
$

2
.
2
9
$

2.0
9
$

2.4
5
$

2.0
9
$

2.0
9
$

2.0
9
$

1
.
9
5
$

1
.
6
3
$

2
.
2
9
$

1.9
6
$

1.
9
6
$

2.1
6
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

1
.
8
9
$

1
.
5
6
$

2
.
3
0
$

2.0
5
$

2.4
1
$

2.0
5
$

2.0
5
$

2.0
5
$

1
.
8
9
$

1
.
5
6
$

2
.
3
0
$

1.9
2
$

1.
9
2
$

2.1
2
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

1
.
9
0
$

1
.
5
8
$

2
.
2
6
$

2.0
3
$

2.3
8
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

1
.
9
0
$

1
.
5
8
$

2
.
2
6
$

1.9
1
$

1.
9
1
$

2.1
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

1
.
9
9
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
2
4
$

2.0
4
$

2.3
4
$

2.0
4
$

2.0
4
$

2.0
4
$

1
.
9
9
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
2
4
$

1.9
7
$

1.
9
7
$

2.1
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

2
.
0
7
$

1
.
7
7
$

2
.
2
7
$

2.1
3
$

2.3
9
$

2.1
3
$

2.1
3
$

2.1
3
$

2
.
0
7
$

1
.
7
7
$

2
.
2
7
$

2.0
4
$

2.
0
4
$

2.1
9
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

2
.
2
3
$

1
.
9
3
$

2
.
4
3
$

2.2
8
$

2.4
7
$

2.2
8
$

2.2
8
$

2.2
8
$

2
.
2
3
$

1
.
9
3
$

2
.
4
3
$

2.2
0
$

2.
2
0
$

2.3
2
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

2
.
2
2
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
6
$

2.3
0
$

2.5
3
$

2.3
0
$

2.3
0
$

2.3
0
$

2
.
2
2
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
6
$

2.2
0
$

2.
2
0
$

2.3
5
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

2
.
2
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
7
$

2.3
1
$

2.5
2
$

2.3
1
$

2.3
1
$

2.3
1
$

2
.
2
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
4
7
$

2.2
1
$

2.
2
1
$

2.3
6
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

2
.
2
6
$

1
.
9
3
$

2
.
4
8
$

2.3
5
$

2.5
5
$

2.3
5
$

2.3
5
$

2.3
5
$

2
.
2
6
$

1
.
9
3
$

2
.
4
8
$

2.2
3
$

2.
2
3
$

2.3
9
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

2
.
2
7
$

1
.
9
4
$

2
.
5
0
$

2.3
6
$

2.5
5
$

2.3
6
$

2.3
6
$

2.3
6
$

2
.
2
7
$

1
.
9
4
$

2
.
5
0
$

2.2
4
$

2.
2
4
$

2.4
0
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

2
.
2
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
5
1
$

2.3
8
$

2.5
9
$

2.3
8
$

2.3
8
$

2.3
8
$

2
.
2
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
5
1
$

2.2
3
$

2.
2
3
$

2.4
2
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

2
.
0
6
$

1
.
7
0
$

2
.
5
2
$

2.3
2
$

2.6
2
$

2.3
2
$

2.3
2
$

2.3
2
$

2
.
0
6
$

1
.
7
0
$

2
.
5
2
$

2.0
9
$

2.
0
9
$

2.3
8
$

Hig
h

G
r
o
w
t
h

&

L
o
w

P
r
i
c
e
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

2
.
2
3
$

1
.
9
0
$

2
.
4
8
$

2.3
7
$

2.7
3
$

20
.
4
1
$

20
.
4
1
$

20
.
4
1
$

2.
2
3
$

1
.
9
0
$

2
.
4
8
$

2.2
0
$

2.
2
0
$

13
.
2
7
$

1/
A
v
o
i
d
e
d

c
o
s
t
s

a
r
e

b
e
f
o
r
e

E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l
i
t
i
e
s

a
d
d
e
r
.
An
n
u
a
l

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Wi
n
t
e
r

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 226
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: AVERAGE CASE AVOIDED COST

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.
3
9
$

2.
6
4
$

1.
3
9
$

1.3
9
$

1.
3
9
$

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.7
8
$

1.7
8
$

1.
6
4
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
5
7
$

1
.
4
7
$

2
.
6
8
$

1.
5
6
$

2.
7
0
$

1.
5
6
$

1.5
6
$

1.
5
6
$

1
.
7
5
$

1
.
6
5
$

2
.
8
6
$

1.9
1
$

2.0
9
$

1.
7
8
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
7
8
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
6
9
$

1.
7
6
$

2.
7
0
$

1.
7
6
$

1.7
6
$

1.
7
6
$

2
.
3
1
$

2
.
2
1
$

3
.
2
2
$

2.0
5
$

2.5
8
$

1.
9
5
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
0
3
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
6
5
$

2.
7
7
$

3.
4
5
$

2.
7
7
$

2.7
7
$

2.
7
7
$

2
.
6
4
$

2
.
5
4
$

3
.
2
7
$

2.2
0
$

2.8
2
$

2.
9
1
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

2
.
2
8
$

2
.
2
0
$

2
.
6
9
$

3.
2
6
$

3.
7
0
$

3.
2
6
$

3.2
6
$

3.
2
6
$

3
.
0
0
$

2
.
9
3
$

3
.
4
1
$

2.3
9
$

3.1
1
$

3.
3
5
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

2
.
4
2
$

2
.
3
6
$

2
.
8
2
$

3.
4
9
$

3.
9
0
$

3.
4
9
$

3.4
9
$

3.
4
9
$

3
.
2
5
$

3
.
1
9
$

3
.
6
5
$

2.5
3
$

3.3
6
$

3.
5
7
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

2
.
8
8
$

2
.
7
8
$

3
.
3
7
$

4.
0
0
$

4.
5
2
$

4.
0
0
$

4.0
0
$

4.
0
0
$

3
.
8
2
$

3
.
7
2
$

4
.
3
1
$

3.0
1
$

3.9
5
$

4.
1
0
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

3
.
1
1
$

3
.
0
1
$

3
.
6
5
$

4.
3
0
$

4.
8
8
$

4.
3
0
$

4.3
0
$

4.
3
0
$

4
.
1
5
$

4
.
0
5
$

4
.
6
9
$

3.2
6
$

4.3
0
$

4.
4
2
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

3
.
2
3
$

3
.
1
3
$

3
.
7
6
$

4.
5
1
$

5.
0
7
$

4.
5
1
$

4.5
1
$

4.
5
1
$

4
.
3
8
$

4
.
2
8
$

4
.
9
1
$

3.3
7
$

4.5
2
$

4.
6
2
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

3
.
4
8
$

3
.
3
8
$

3
.
9
1
$

4.
8
6
$

5.
3
2
$

4.
8
6
$

4.8
6
$

4.
8
6
$

4
.
7
4
$

4
.
6
4
$

5
.
1
7
$

3.5
9
$

4.8
5
$

4.
9
5
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

3
.
8
1
$

3
.
7
1
$

4
.
2
4
$

5.
2
9
$

5.
7
5
$

5.
2
9
$

5.2
9
$

5.
2
9
$

5
.
1
7
$

5
.
0
7
$

5
.
6
0
$

3.9
2
$

5.2
8
$

5.
3
8
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

4
.
1
0
$

4
.
0
1
$

4
.
4
7
$

5.
7
1
$

6.
0
8
$

5.
7
1
$

5.7
1
$

5.
7
1
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
4
7
$

5
.
9
4
$

4.1
9
$

5.6
6
$

5.
7
9
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

4
.
4
0
$

4
.
3
3
$

4
.
7
7
$

6.
1
6
$

6.
4
9
$

6.
1
6
$

6.1
6
$

6.
1
6
$

5
.
9
8
$

5
.
9
0
$

6
.
3
4
$

4.5
0
$

6.0
7
$

6.
2
2
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

4
.
6
2
$

4
.
5
4
$

4
.
9
7
$

6.
5
0
$

6.
8
2
$

6.
5
0
$

6.5
0
$

6.
5
0
$

6
.
2
1
$

6
.
1
3
$

6
.
5
7
$

4.7
1
$

6.3
0
$

6.
5
6
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

4
.
7
7
$

4
.
6
7
$

5
.
1
8
$

6.
7
6
$

7.
1
6
$

6.
7
6
$

6.7
6
$

6.
7
6
$

6
.
3
6
$

6
.
2
6
$

6
.
7
8
$

4.8
7
$

6.4
6
$

6.
8
4
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

5
.
0
1
$

4
.
9
3
$

5
.
4
2
$

7.
1
6
$

7.
5
3
$

7.
1
6
$

7.1
6
$

7.
1
6
$

6
.
6
0
$

6
.
5
2
$

7
.
0
2
$

5.1
2
$

6.7
1
$

7.
2
3
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

5
.
2
1
$

5
.
1
1
$

5
.
6
7
$

7.
5
0
$

7.
9
3
$

7.
5
0
$

7.5
0
$

7.
5
0
$

6
.
8
0
$

6
.
7
0
$

7
.
2
6
$

5.3
3
$

6.9
2
$

7.
5
8
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

5
.
4
0
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
8
6
$

7.
8
7
$

8.
2
8
$

7.
8
7
$

7.8
7
$

7.
8
7
$

7
.
0
0
$

6
.
9
0
$

7
.
4
5
$

5.5
2
$

7.1
2
$

7.
9
5
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

5
.
6
5
$

5
.
5
5
$

6
.
1
2
$

8.
3
1
$

8.
6
9
$

8.
3
1
$

8.3
1
$

8.
3
1
$

7
.
2
4
$

7
.
1
4
$

7
.
7
1
$

5.7
7
$

7.3
6
$

8.
3
9
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

5
.
8
9
$

5
.
8
5
$

6
.
1
5
$

8.
7
4
$

8.
9
4
$

8.
7
3
$

8.7
3
$

8.
7
3
$

7
.
4
8
$

7
.
4
4
$

7
.
7
4
$

5.9
6
$

7.5
5
$

8.
7
7
$

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
9
7
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
4
$

1.
9
3
$

2.
5
4
$

1.
9
3
$

1.9
3
$

1.
9
3
$

1
.
9
7
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.0
7
$

2.0
7
$

2.
0
5
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
8
7
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
6
4
$

1.
8
4
$

2.
6
6
$

1.
8
4
$

1.8
4
$

1.
8
4
$

1
.
8
7
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
6
4
$

2.0
4
$

2.0
4
$

2.
0
0
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

2
.
0
8
$

1
.
8
2
$

2
.
7
4
$

2.
0
2
$

2.
7
6
$

2.
0
2
$

2.0
2
$

2.
0
2
$

2
.
6
1
$

2
.
3
5
$

3
.
2
7
$

2.2
1
$

2.7
4
$

2.
1
7
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
1
6
$

1
.
9
0
$

2
.
6
5
$

2.
0
5
$

2.
6
8
$

2.
0
5
$

2.0
5
$

2.
0
5
$

2
.
6
9
$

2
.
4
3
$

3
.
1
8
$

2.2
4
$

2.7
7
$

2.
1
8
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

2
.
4
7
$

2
.
2
4
$

2
.
6
8
$

3.
2
9
$

3.
6
6
$

3.
2
9
$

3.2
9
$

3.
2
9
$

3
.
1
0
$

2
.
8
8
$

3
.
3
2
$

2.4
6
$

3.1
0
$

3.
3
6
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

2
.
5
9
$

2
.
4
1
$

2
.
7
8
$

3.
5
2
$

3.
8
2
$

3.
5
2
$

3.5
2
$

3.
5
2
$

3
.
3
3
$

3
.
1
5
$

3
.
5
2
$

2.5
9
$

3.3
3
$

3.
5
8
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

2
.
9
6
$

2
.
7
1
$

3
.
3
0
$

3.
9
1
$

4.
4
1
$

3.
9
1
$

3.9
1
$

3.
9
1
$

3
.
8
1
$

3
.
5
6
$

4
.
1
5
$

2.9
9
$

3.8
4
$

4.
0
1
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

3
.
3
0
$

3
.
0
5
$

3
.
5
9
$

4.
3
0
$

4.
7
7
$

4.
3
0
$

4.3
0
$

4.
3
0
$

4
.
2
5
$

4
.
0
0
$

4
.
5
5
$

3.3
1
$

4.2
7
$

4.
4
0
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

3
.
3
8
$

3
.
1
1
$

3
.
7
1
$

4.
4
7
$

4.
9
6
$

4.
4
7
$

4.4
7
$

4.
4
7
$

4
.
4
4
$

4
.
1
7
$

4
.
7
7
$

3.4
0
$

4.4
6
$

4.
5
7
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

3
.
5
7
$

3
.
3
1
$

3
.
8
5
$

4.
7
6
$

5.
1
9
$

4.
7
6
$

4.7
6
$

4.
7
6
$

4
.
7
4
$

4
.
4
7
$

5
.
0
2
$

3.5
8
$

4.7
4
$

4.
8
4
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

3
.
9
2
$

3
.
6
6
$

4
.
1
9
$

5.
2
0
$

5.
6
2
$

5.
2
0
$

5.2
0
$

5.
2
0
$

5
.
2
0
$

4
.
9
4
$

5
.
4
7
$

3.9
3
$

5.2
0
$

5.
2
8
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

4
.
1
9
$

3
.
9
3
$

4
.
4
2
$

5.
6
3
$

5.
9
5
$

5.
6
3
$

5.6
3
$

5.
6
3
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
8
0
$

4.1
8
$

5.5
6
$

5.
6
9
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

4
.
5
3
$

4
.
3
1
$

4
.
7
3
$

6.
1
6
$

6.
3
6
$

6.
1
6
$

6.1
6
$

6.
1
6
$

6
.
0
2
$

5
.
8
0
$

6
.
2
2
$

4.5
2
$

6.0
1
$

6.
2
0
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

4
.
7
3
$

4
.
4
9
$

4
.
9
4
$

6.
4
8
$

6.
6
9
$

6.
4
8
$

6.4
8
$

6.
4
8
$

6
.
3
2
$

6
.
0
8
$

6
.
5
3
$

4.7
2
$

6.3
1
$

6.
5
2
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

4
.
9
2
$

4
.
6
8
$

5
.
1
4
$

6.
8
2
$

7.
0
0
$

6.
8
2
$

6.8
2
$

6.
8
2
$

6
.
5
2
$

6
.
2
7
$

6
.
7
3
$

4.9
1
$

6.5
0
$

6.
8
5
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

5
.
1
4
$

4
.
8
9
$

5
.
3
9
$

7.
1
5
$

7.
3
8
$

7.
1
5
$

7.1
5
$

7.
1
5
$

6
.
7
3
$

6
.
4
9
$

6
.
9
8
$

5.1
4
$

6.7
3
$

7.
2
0
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

5
.
3
8
$

5
.
1
3
$

5
.
6
2
$

7.
5
6
$

7.
7
5
$

7.
5
6
$

7.5
6
$

7.
5
6
$

6
.
9
7
$

6
.
7
2
$

7
.
2
1
$

5.3
7
$

6.9
7
$

7.
6
0
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

5
.
5
6
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
7
9
$

7.
9
5
$

8.
1
4
$

7.
9
5
$

7.9
5
$

7.
9
5
$

7
.
1
5
$

6
.
9
1
$

7
.
3
8
$

5.5
5
$

7.1
5
$

7.
9
9
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

5
.
4
2
$

5
.
1
8
$

6
.
0
5
$

8.
1
6
$

8.
4
9
$

8.
1
6
$

8.1
6
$

8.
1
6
$

7
.
0
2
$

6
.
7
7
$

7
.
6
5
$

5.5
5
$

7.1
5
$

8.
2
3
$

Av
e
r
a
g
e

C
a
s
e

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

6
.
0
9
$

5
.
9
4
$

6
.
2
3
$

8.
8
8
$

9.
0
1
$

8.
8
8
$

8.8
8
$

8.
8
8
$

7
.
6
8
$

7
.
5
3
$

7
.
8
2
$

6.0
9
$

7.6
8
$

8.
9
1
$

1/

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

c
o
s
t
s

a
r
e

b
e
f
o
r
e

E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l
i
t
i
e
s

a
d
d
e
r
.
An
n
u
a
l

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Wi
n
t
e
r

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 227
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: COLD DAY 20 YR WEATHER STANDARD AVOIDED COST

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
4
1
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
6
$

1.4
1
$

2.
7
0
$

1.4
1
$

1.4
1
$

1.
4
1
$

1
.
4
1
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
6
$

1.
7
9
$

1.
7
9
$

1.6
7
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
5
9
$

1
.
4
7
$

2
.
7
1
$

1.6
0
$

2.
7
5
$

1.6
0
$

1.6
0
$

1.
6
0
$

1
.
7
6
$

1
.
6
5
$

2
.
8
9
$

1.
9
2
$

2.
1
0
$

1.8
3
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
8
0
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
7
0
$

1.8
0
$

2.
7
3
$

1.8
0
$

1.8
0
$

1.
8
0
$

2
.
3
3
$

2
.
2
1
$

3
.
2
3
$

2.
0
6
$

2.
5
9
$

1.9
9
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
0
4
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
6
5
$

2.8
1
$

3.
4
7
$

2.8
1
$

2.8
1
$

2.
8
1
$

2
.
6
5
$

2
.
5
4
$

3
.
2
6
$

2.
2
0
$

2.
8
2
$

2.9
4
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

2
.
2
8
$

2
.
2
0
$

2
.
6
9
$

3.2
9
$

3.
7
3
$

3.2
9
$

3.2
9
$

3.
2
9
$

3
.
0
1
$

2
.
9
3
$

3
.
4
2
$

2.
3
9
$

3.
1
2
$

3.3
8
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

2
.
4
3
$

2
.
3
6
$

2
.
8
3
$

3.5
2
$

3.
9
4
$

3.5
2
$

3.5
2
$

3.
5
2
$

3
.
2
6
$

3
.
1
9
$

3
.
6
6
$

2.
5
4
$

3.
3
7
$

3.6
0
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

2
.
8
9
$

2
.
7
8
$

3
.
3
7
$

4.0
4
$

4.
5
4
$

4.0
4
$

4.0
4
$

4.
0
4
$

3
.
8
3
$

3
.
7
2
$

4
.
3
1
$

3.
0
1
$

3.
9
5
$

4.1
4
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

3
.
1
2
$

3
.
0
1
$

3
.
6
7
$

4.3
5
$

4.
9
2
$

4.3
5
$

4.3
5
$

4.
3
5
$

4
.
1
6
$

4
.
0
5
$

4
.
7
2
$

3.
2
7
$

4.
3
1
$

4.4
6
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

3
.
2
4
$

3
.
1
3
$

3
.
7
8
$

4.5
5
$

5.
1
1
$

4.5
5
$

4.5
5
$

4.
5
5
$

4
.
3
9
$

4
.
2
8
$

4
.
9
3
$

3.
3
8
$

4.
5
3
$

4.6
7
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

3
.
4
9
$

3
.
3
8
$

3
.
9
1
$

4.9
0
$

5.
3
3
$

4.9
0
$

4.9
0
$

4.
9
0
$

4
.
7
4
$

4
.
6
4
$

5
.
1
7
$

3.
6
0
$

4.
8
5
$

4.9
8
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

3
.
8
2
$

3
.
7
1
$

4
.
2
6
$

5.3
2
$

5.
7
7
$

5.3
2
$

5.3
2
$

5.
3
2
$

5
.
1
8
$

5
.
0
7
$

5
.
6
2
$

3.
9
3
$

5.
2
9
$

5.4
1
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

4
.
1
1
$

4
.
0
1
$

4
.
4
9
$

5.7
4
$

6.
1
0
$

5.7
4
$

5.7
4
$

5.
7
4
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
4
7
$

5
.
9
5
$

4.
2
0
$

5.
6
7
$

5.8
1
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

4
.
4
2
$

4
.
3
3
$

4
.
7
9
$

6.1
8
$

6.
5
2
$

6.1
8
$

6.1
8
$

6.
1
8
$

5
.
9
9
$

5
.
9
0
$

6
.
3
6
$

4.
5
1
$

6.
0
9
$

6.2
4
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

4
.
6
3
$

4
.
5
4
$

4
.
9
9
$

6.5
2
$

6.
8
4
$

6.5
2
$

6.5
2
$

6.
5
2
$

6
.
2
2
$

6
.
1
3
$

6
.
5
8
$

4.
7
2
$

6.
3
1
$

6.5
8
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

4
.
7
7
$

4
.
6
7
$

5
.
1
9
$

6.7
8
$

7.
1
8
$

6.7
8
$

6.7
8
$

6.
7
8
$

6
.
3
6
$

6
.
2
6
$

6
.
7
8
$

4.
8
8
$

6.
4
7
$

6.8
6
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

5
.
0
2
$

4
.
9
3
$

5
.
4
3
$

7.1
8
$

7.
5
5
$

7.1
8
$

7.1
8
$

7.
1
8
$

6
.
6
1
$

6
.
5
2
$

7
.
0
2
$

5.
1
2
$

6.
7
2
$

7.2
5
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

5
.
2
1
$

5
.
1
1
$

5
.
6
7
$

7.5
1
$

7.
9
4
$

7.5
1
$

7.5
1
$

7.
5
1
$

6
.
8
0
$

6
.
7
0
$

7
.
2
6
$

5.
3
3
$

6.
9
2
$

7.6
0
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

5
.
4
1
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
9
0
$

7.8
7
$

8.
3
2
$

7.8
7
$

7.8
7
$

7.
8
7
$

7
.
0
1
$

6
.
9
0
$

7
.
4
9
$

5.
5
4
$

7.
1
3
$

7.9
6
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

5
.
6
6
$

5
.
5
5
$

6
.
1
4
$

8.3
2
$

8.
7
1
$

8.3
2
$

8.3
2
$

8.
3
2
$

7
.
2
5
$

7
.
1
4
$

7
.
7
3
$

5.
7
8
$

7.
3
7
$

8.4
0
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

5
.
9
4
$

5
.
8
5
$

6
.
2
1
$

8.7
5
$

8.
9
7
$

8.7
4
$

8.7
4
$

8.
7
4
$

7
.
5
3
$

7
.
4
4
$

7
.
8
1
$

6.
0
0
$

7.
5
9
$

8.7
9
$

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

2
.
0
0
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
7
$

2.0
4
$

2.
6
5
$

2.0
4
$

2.0
4
$

2.
0
4
$

2
.
0
0
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
7
$

2.
1
0
$

2.
1
0
$

2.1
6
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
6
7
$

2.0
3
$

2.
7
6
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

2.
0
3
$

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
6
7
$

2.
0
6
$

2.
0
6
$

2.1
8
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

2
.
1
1
$

1
.
8
2
$

2
.
7
7
$

2.2
6
$

2.
8
4
$

2.2
6
$

2.2
6
$

2.
2
6
$

2
.
6
5
$

2
.
3
5
$

3
.
3
0
$

2.
2
4
$

2.
7
7
$

2.3
8
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

2
.
1
8
$

1
.
9
0
$

2
.
6
5
$

2.2
7
$

2.
7
4
$

2.2
7
$

2.2
7
$

2.
2
7
$

2
.
7
1
$

2
.
4
3
$

3
.
1
9
$

2.
2
5
$

2.
7
8
$

2.3
7
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

2
.
4
7
$

2
.
2
4
$

2
.
7
0
$

3.4
7
$

3.
7
7
$

3.4
7
$

3.4
7
$

3.
4
7
$

3
.
1
1
$

2
.
8
8
$

3
.
3
4
$

2.
4
7
$

3.
1
1
$

3.5
3
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

2
.
6
0
$

2
.
4
1
$

2
.
8
0
$

3.7
0
$

3.
9
5
$

3.7
0
$

3.7
0
$

3.
7
0
$

3
.
3
4
$

3
.
1
5
$

3
.
5
4
$

2.
6
0
$

3.
3
5
$

3.7
5
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

2
.
9
7
$

2
.
7
1
$

3
.
3
1
$

4.1
4
$

4.
4
6
$

4.1
4
$

4.1
4
$

4.
1
4
$

3
.
8
2
$

3
.
5
6
$

4
.
1
6
$

3.
0
0
$

3.
8
5
$

4.2
0
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

3
.
3
1
$

3
.
0
5
$

3
.
6
3
$

4.5
6
$

4.
8
4
$

4.5
6
$

4.5
6
$

4.
5
6
$

4
.
2
6
$

4
.
0
0
$

4
.
5
8
$

3.
3
3
$

4.
2
8
$

4.6
1
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

3
.
3
9
$

3
.
1
1
$

3
.
7
4
$

4.7
3
$

5.
0
2
$

4.7
3
$

4.7
3
$

4.
7
3
$

4
.
4
5
$

4
.
1
7
$

4
.
8
0
$

3.
4
1
$

4.
4
7
$

4.7
9
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

3
.
5
8
$

3
.
3
1
$

3
.
8
6
$

4.9
6
$

5.
2
3
$

4.9
6
$

4.9
6
$

4.
9
6
$

4
.
7
5
$

4
.
4
7
$

5
.
0
2
$

3.
5
8
$

4.
7
5
$

5.0
1
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

3
.
9
3
$

3
.
6
6
$

4
.
2
0
$

5.3
9
$

5.
6
5
$

5.3
9
$

5.3
9
$

5.
3
9
$

5
.
2
0
$

4
.
9
4
$

5
.
4
8
$

3.
9
3
$

5.
2
1
$

5.4
4
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

4
.
1
9
$

3
.
9
3
$

4
.
4
4
$

5.7
8
$

5.
9
8
$

5.7
8
$

5.7
8
$

5.
7
8
$

5
.
5
7
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
8
2
$

4.
1
9
$

5.
5
7
$

5.8
2
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

4
.
5
6
$

4
.
3
1
$

4
.
7
8
$

6.2
7
$

6.
4
4
$

6.2
7
$

6.2
7
$

6.
2
7
$

6
.
0
4
$

5
.
8
0
$

6
.
2
7
$

4.
5
5
$

6.
0
4
$

6.3
0
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

4
.
7
4
$

4
.
4
9
$

4
.
9
7
$

6.6
0
$

6.
7
7
$

6.6
0
$

6.6
0
$

6.
6
0
$

6
.
3
3
$

6
.
0
8
$

6
.
5
7
$

4.
7
4
$

6.
3
3
$

6.6
3
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

4
.
9
3
$

4
.
6
8
$

5
.
1
4
$

6.9
1
$

7.
0
7
$

6.9
1
$

6.9
1
$

6.
9
1
$

6
.
5
2
$

6
.
2
7
$

6
.
7
3
$

4.
9
2
$

6.
5
1
$

6.9
4
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

5
.
1
4
$

4
.
8
9
$

5
.
3
9
$

7.2
7
$

7.
4
5
$

7.2
7
$

7.2
7
$

7.
2
7
$

6
.
7
3
$

6
.
4
9
$

6
.
9
9
$

5.
1
4
$

6.
7
4
$

7.3
0
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

5
.
3
8
$

5
.
1
3
$

5
.
6
2
$

7.6
4
$

7.
8
2
$

7.6
4
$

7.6
4
$

7.
6
4
$

6
.
9
7
$

6
.
7
2
$

7
.
2
1
$

5.
3
8
$

6.
9
7
$

7.6
8
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

5
.
5
6
$

5
.
3
1
$

5
.
8
4
$

7.9
8
$

8.
1
7
$

7.9
8
$

7.9
8
$

7.
9
8
$

7
.
1
6
$

6
.
9
1
$

7
.
4
3
$

5.
5
7
$

7.
1
6
$

8.0
2
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

5
.
4
7
$

5
.
1
8
$

6
.
0
8
$

8.2
0
$

8.
5
2
$

8.2
0
$

8.2
0
$

8.
2
0
$

7
.
0
6
$

6
.
7
7
$

7
.
6
7
$

5.
5
7
$

7.
1
7
$

8.2
6
$

Co
l
d

D
a
y

2
0
y
r

W
e
a
t
h
e
r

S
t
d

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

6
.
1
9
$

5
.
9
4
$

6
.
4
3
$

8.9
5
$

9.
1
4
$

8.9
5
$

8.9
5
$

8.
9
5
$

7
.
7
8
$

7
.
5
3
$

8
.
0
2
$

6.
1
8
$

7.
7
8
$

8.9
8
$

1/
A
v
o
i
d
e
d

c
o
s
t
s

a
r
e

b
e
f
o
r
e

E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l
i
t
i
e
s

a
d
d
e
r
.
An
n
u
a
l

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Wi
n
t
e
r

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 228
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: 80% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS AVOIDED COST

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.3
9
$

2.
6
6
$

1.3
9
$

1.3
9
$

1.
3
9
$

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
3
1
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.
7
8
$

1.
7
8
$

1.6
5
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
3
0
$

2
.
5
5
$

1.3
7
$

2.
5
7
$

1.3
7
$

1.3
7
$

1.
3
7
$

1
.
5
8
$

1
.
4
8
$

2
.
7
3
$

1.
7
5
$

1.
9
3
$

1.6
1
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
4
4
$

1
.
3
4
$

2
.
3
3
$

1.4
0
$

2.
3
4
$

1.4
0
$

1.4
0
$

1.
4
0
$

1
.
9
7
$

1
.
8
7
$

2
.
8
6
$

1.
7
0
$

2.
2
3
$

1.5
9
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

1
.
4
7
$

1
.
3
8
$

2
.
0
7
$

2.2
2
$

2.
8
7
$

2.2
2
$

2.2
2
$

2.
2
2
$

2
.
0
9
$

2
.
0
0
$

2
.
6
9
$

1.
6
4
$

2.
2
6
$

2.3
5
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

1
.
5
1
$

1
.
4
4
$

1
.
9
1
$

2.4
9
$

2.
9
3
$

2.4
9
$

2.4
9
$

2.
4
9
$

2
.
2
3
$

2
.
1
6
$

2
.
6
3
$

1.
6
2
$

2.
3
4
$

2.5
7
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

1
.
4
2
$

1
.
3
5
$

1
.
8
4
$

2.4
7
$

2.
9
3
$

2.4
7
$

2.4
7
$

2.
4
7
$

2
.
2
5
$

2
.
1
8
$

2
.
6
7
$

1.
5
4
$

2.
3
7
$

2.5
6
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

1
.
5
8
$

1
.
5
6
$

1
.
9
3
$

2.7
5
$

3.
0
9
$

2.7
5
$

2.7
5
$

2.
7
5
$

2
.
5
2
$

2
.
4
9
$

2
.
8
7
$

1.
6
9
$

2.
6
3
$

2.8
2
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

1
.
6
2
$

1
.
5
9
$

1
.
9
8
$

2.8
6
$

3.
2
2
$

2.8
6
$

2.8
6
$

2.
8
6
$

2
.
6
6
$

2
.
6
4
$

3
.
0
2
$

1.
7
3
$

2.
7
7
$

2.9
3
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

1
.
5
8
$

1
.
5
6
$

1
.
9
9
$

2.9
1
$

3.
3
1
$

2.9
1
$

2.9
1
$

2.
9
1
$

2
.
7
3
$

2
.
7
1
$

3
.
1
4
$

1.
7
1
$

2.
8
6
$

2.9
9
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

1
.
6
3
$

1
.
6
1
$

2
.
0
0
$

3.0
5
$

3.
4
1
$

3.0
5
$

3.0
5
$

3.
0
5
$

2
.
8
8
$

2
.
8
7
$

3
.
2
6
$

1.
7
5
$

3.
0
0
$

3.1
2
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

1
.
6
9
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
0
4
$

3.2
2
$

3.
5
4
$

3.2
2
$

3.2
2
$

3.
2
2
$

3
.
0
5
$

3
.
0
4
$

3
.
4
0
$

1.
8
0
$

3.
1
6
$

3.2
8
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

1
.
7
9
$

1
.
7
9
$

2
.
1
3
$

3.4
3
$

3.
7
4
$

3.4
3
$

3.4
3
$

3.
4
3
$

3
.
2
6
$

3
.
2
5
$

3
.
6
0
$

1.
9
0
$

3.
3
7
$

3.5
0
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

1
.
8
9
$

1
.
8
9
$

2
.
2
5
$

3.6
5
$

3.
9
7
$

3.6
5
$

3.6
5
$

3.
6
5
$

3
.
4
7
$

3
.
4
6
$

3
.
8
2
$

2.
0
1
$

3.
5
8
$

3.7
1
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

1
.
9
2
$

1
.
9
1
$

2
.
3
2
$

3.8
0
$

4.
1
6
$

3.8
0
$

3.8
0
$

3.
8
0
$

3
.
5
2
$

3
.
5
1
$

3
.
9
1
$

2.
0
5
$

3.
6
5
$

3.8
7
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

1
.
8
9
$

1
.
8
8
$

2
.
3
1
$

3.8
9
$

4.
2
8
$

3.8
9
$

3.8
9
$

3.
8
9
$

3
.
4
8
$

3
.
4
7
$

3
.
9
0
$

2.
0
3
$

3.
6
2
$

3.9
7
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

1
.
9
2
$

1
.
9
1
$

2
.
3
0
$

4.0
6
$

4.
4
0
$

4.0
6
$

4.0
6
$

4.
0
6
$

3
.
5
2
$

3
.
5
0
$

3
.
8
9
$

2.
0
4
$

3.
6
4
$

4.1
3
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

1
.
8
8
$

1
.
8
7
$

2
.
2
7
$

4.1
7
$

4.
5
2
$

4.1
7
$

4.1
7
$

4.
1
7
$

3
.
4
8
$

3
.
4
6
$

3
.
8
6
$

2.
0
1
$

3.
6
0
$

4.2
4
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

1
.
8
7
$

1
.
8
6
$

2
.
2
0
$

4.3
1
$

4.
6
1
$

4.3
1
$

4.3
1
$

4.
3
1
$

3
.
4
6
$

3
.
4
5
$

3
.
7
9
$

1.
9
8
$

3.
5
7
$

4.3
7
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

1
.
8
4
$

1
.
8
3
$

2
.
1
7
$

4.4
3
$

4.
7
3
$

4.4
3
$

4.4
3
$

4.
4
3
$

3
.
4
3
$

3
.
4
2
$

3
.
7
6
$

1.
9
5
$

3.
5
4
$

4.4
9
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

1
.
8
5
$

1
.
8
5
$

2
.
0
0
$

4.6
0
$

4.
7
3
$

4.5
7
$

4.5
7
$

4.
5
7
$

3
.
4
4
$

3
.
4
4
$

3
.
6
0
$

1.
9
0
$

3.
4
9
$

4.6
0
$

Sc
e
n
a
r
i
o

G
a
s

Y
e
a
r

I
D

B
o
t
h

I
D

G
T
N

I
D

N
W
P

K
l
a
m

F
a
l
l
s

L
a

G
r
a
n
d
e

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

G
T
N

M
e
d
f
o
r
d

N
W
P

R
o
s
e
b
u
r
g

W
A

B
o
t
h

W
A

G
T
N

W
A

N
W
P

I
D

A
n
n
u
a
l

W
A

A
n
n
u
a
l

O
R

A
n
n
u
a
l
80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
7
-
2
0
1
8

1
.
9
8
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.0
3
$

2.
6
2
$

2.0
3
$

2.0
3
$

2.
0
3
$

1
.
9
8
$

1
.
7
1
$

2
.
5
4
$

2.
0
8
$

2.
0
8
$

2.1
4
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
8
-
2
0
1
9

1
.
7
1
$

1
.
4
3
$

2
.
6
4
$

1.6
5
$

2.
6
9
$

1.6
5
$

1.6
5
$

1.
6
5
$

1
.
7
1
$

1
.
4
3
$

2
.
6
4
$

1.
9
3
$

1.
9
3
$

1.8
6
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
1
9
-
2
0
2
0

1
.
7
3
$

1
.
4
6
$

2
.
5
0
$

1.6
3
$

2.
5
4
$

1.6
3
$

1.6
3
$

1.
6
3
$

2
.
2
6
$

1
.
9
9
$

3
.
0
3
$

1.
9
0
$

2.
4
3
$

1.8
1
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
0
-
2
0
2
1

1
.
6
1
$

1
.
3
5
$

2
.
1
9
$

1.5
0
$

2.
2
4
$

1.5
0
$

1.5
0
$

1.
5
0
$

2
.
1
4
$

1
.
8
9
$

2
.
7
2
$

1.
7
2
$

2.
2
5
$

1.6
5
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
1
-
2
0
2
2

1
.
6
9
$

1
.
4
6
$

1
.
9
8
$

2.5
2
$

3.
0
0
$

2.5
2
$

2.5
2
$

2.
5
2
$

2
.
3
2
$

2
.
1
0
$

2
.
6
2
$

1.
7
1
$

2.
3
5
$

2.6
2
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
2
-
2
0
2
3

1
.
6
0
$

1
.
4
0
$

1
.
8
7
$

2.5
0
$

2.
9
5
$

2.5
0
$

2.5
0
$

2.
5
0
$

2
.
3
4
$

2
.
1
4
$

2
.
6
1
$

1.
6
2
$

2.
3
6
$

2.5
9
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
3
-
2
0
2
4

1
.
6
2
$

1
.
5
1
$

1
.
8
5
$

2.6
8
$

2.
9
9
$

2.6
8
$

2.6
8
$

2.
6
8
$

2
.
4
7
$

2
.
3
6
$

2
.
7
0
$

1.
6
6
$

2.
5
1
$

2.7
5
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
4
-
2
0
2
5

1
.
7
2
$

1
.
6
3
$

1
.
9
6
$

2.8
6
$

3.
1
6
$

2.8
6
$

2.8
6
$

2.
8
6
$

2
.
6
8
$

2
.
5
9
$

2
.
9
2
$

1.
7
7
$

2.
7
3
$

2.9
2
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
5
-
2
0
2
6

1
.
6
3
$

1
.
5
6
$

1
.
9
8
$

2.8
5
$

3.
2
5
$

2.8
5
$

2.8
5
$

2.
8
5
$

2
.
6
9
$

2
.
6
2
$

3
.
0
5
$

1.
7
2
$

2.
7
8
$

2.9
3
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
6
-
2
0
2
7

1
.
6
2
$

1
.
5
8
$

2
.
0
0
$

2.9
5
$

3.
3
4
$

2.9
5
$

2.9
5
$

2.
9
5
$

2
.
7
9
$

2
.
7
5
$

3
.
1
7
$

1.
7
3
$

2.
9
0
$

3.0
3
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
7
-
2
0
2
8

1
.
7
1
$

1
.
6
8
$

2
.
0
1
$

3.1
4
$

3.
4
4
$

3.1
4
$

3.1
4
$

3.
1
4
$

2
.
9
8
$

2
.
9
5
$

3
.
2
9
$

1.
8
0
$

3.
0
7
$

3.2
0
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
8
-
2
0
2
9

1
.
7
9
$

1
.
7
7
$

2
.
0
8
$

3.3
4
$

3.
5
9
$

3.3
4
$

3.3
4
$

3.
3
4
$

3
.
1
7
$

3
.
1
5
$

3
.
4
6
$

1.
8
8
$

3.
2
6
$

3.3
9
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
2
9
-
2
0
3
0

1
.
9
5
$

1
.
9
3
$

2
.
2
0
$

3.6
1
$

3.
8
2
$

3.6
1
$

3.6
1
$

3.
6
1
$

3
.
4
4
$

3
.
4
2
$

3
.
6
8
$

2.
0
3
$

3.
5
1
$

3.6
5
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
0
-
2
0
3
1

1
.
9
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
3
2
$

3.7
1
$

4.
0
6
$

3.7
1
$

3.7
1
$

3.
7
1
$

3
.
5
4
$

3
.
5
1
$

3
.
9
1
$

2.
0
6
$

3.
6
5
$

3.7
8
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
1
-
2
0
3
2

1
.
9
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
3
7
$

3.8
3
$

4.
2
3
$

3.8
3
$

3.8
3
$

3.
8
3
$

3
.
5
5
$

3
.
5
1
$

3
.
9
7
$

2.
0
8
$

3.
6
7
$

3.9
1
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
2
-
2
0
3
3

1
.
9
6
$

1
.
9
3
$

2
.
3
2
$

3.9
7
$

4.
3
0
$

3.9
7
$

3.9
7
$

3.
9
7
$

3
.
5
5
$

3
.
5
2
$

3
.
9
1
$

2.
0
7
$

3.
6
6
$

4.0
4
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
3
-
2
0
3
4

1
.
9
7
$

1
.
9
4
$

2
.
3
3
$

4.1
2
$

4.
4
6
$

4.1
2
$

4.1
2
$

4.
1
2
$

3
.
5
6
$

3
.
5
3
$

3
.
9
2
$

2.
0
8
$

3.
6
7
$

4.1
9
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
4
-
2
0
3
5

1
.
9
5
$

1
.
9
2
$

2
.
2
7
$

4.2
4
$

4.
5
5
$

4.2
4
$

4.2
4
$

4.
2
4
$

3
.
5
4
$

3
.
5
1
$

3
.
8
6
$

2.
0
5
$

3.
6
4
$

4.3
0
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
5
-
2
0
3
6

1
.
7
4
$

1
.
7
0
$

2
.
2
1
$

4.1
8
$

4.
6
5
$

4.1
8
$

4.1
8
$

4.
1
8
$

3
.
3
3
$

3
.
2
9
$

3
.
8
0
$

1.
8
8
$

3.
4
7
$

4.2
8
$

80
%

B
e
l
o
w

1
9
9
0

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

2
0
3
6
-
2
0
3
7

1
.
9
1
$

1
.
9
0
$

2
.
2
0
$

4.5
2
$

4.
7
8
$

4.5
2
$

4.5
2
$

4.
5
2
$

3
.
5
0
$

3
.
4
9
$

3
.
7
9
$

2.
0
0
$

3.
5
9
$

4.5
7
$

1/
A
v
o
i
d
e
d

c
o
s
t
s

a
r
e

b
e
f
o
r
e

E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l
i
t
i
e
s

a
d
d
e
r
.
An
n
u
a
l

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Wi
n
t
e
r

A
v
o
i
d
e
d

C
o
s
t
s

1
/
No
m
i
n
a
l
$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 229
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: LOW GROWTH – HIGH PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR Annual
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Nov (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.72)$ (1.95)$ (2.72)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.72)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.10)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Dec (2.15)$ (1.59)$ (2.73)$ (2.29)$ (2.85)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (2.15)$ (1.59)$ (2.73)$ (2.16)$ (2.16)$ (2.40)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Jan (2.16)$ (1.69)$ (2.73)$ (1.90)$ (2.79)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.16)$ (1.69)$ (2.73)$ (2.20)$ (2.20)$ (2.08)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Feb (2.38)$ (2.17)$ (2.75)$ (2.27)$ (3.03)$ (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.38)$ (2.17)$ (2.75)$ (2.43)$ (2.43)$ (2.42)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Mar (0.95)$ (0.95)$ (2.75)$ (0.98)$ (2.75)$ (0.98)$ (0.98)$ (0.98)$ (0.95)$ (0.95)$ (2.75)$ (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (1.33)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Apr (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.76)$ (1.11)$ (2.76)$ (1.11)$ (1.11)$ (1.11)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.76)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.44)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 May (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.76)$ (1.08)$ (2.76)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.76)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.41)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Jun (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.77)$ (1.07)$ (2.77)$ (1.07)$ (1.07)$ (1.07)$ (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.77)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.41)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Jul (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.78)$ (1.12)$ (2.78)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.78)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.45)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Aug (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (2.79)$ (1.13)$ (2.79)$ (1.13)$ (1.13)$ (1.13)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (2.79)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.46)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Sep (1.06)$ (1.06)$ (2.80)$ (1.08)$ (2.80)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.06)$ (1.06)$ (2.80)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.43)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 Oct (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (3.17)$ (1.12)$ (3.17)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (3.17)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.53)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Nov (1.74)$ (1.69)$ (2.81)$ (1.84)$ (2.81)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.74)$ (1.69)$ (2.81)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.03)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Dec (2.40)$ (1.87)$ (2.83)$ (2.50)$ (2.96)$ (2.50)$ (2.50)$ (2.50)$ (2.40)$ (1.87)$ (2.83)$ (2.37)$ (2.37)$ (2.59)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Jan (2.40)$ (1.93)$ (2.83)$ (2.11)$ (2.87)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.40)$ (1.93)$ (2.83)$ (2.39)$ (2.39)$ (2.26)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Feb (2.29)$ (1.94)$ (2.85)$ (2.08)$ (2.99)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.29)$ (1.94)$ (2.85)$ (2.36)$ (2.36)$ (2.26)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Mar (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.85)$ (1.84)$ (2.85)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.85)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.04)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Apr (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (2.85)$ (1.45)$ (2.85)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (2.85)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.73)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 May (1.40)$ (1.40)$ (2.86)$ (1.43)$ (2.86)$ (1.43)$ (1.43)$ (1.43)$ (1.40)$ (1.40)$ (2.86)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.72)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Jun (1.49)$ (1.49)$ (2.87)$ (1.52)$ (2.87)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.49)$ (1.49)$ (2.87)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.79)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Jul (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (2.88)$ (1.61)$ (2.88)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (3.41)$ (2.01)$ (2.54)$ (1.86)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Aug (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.89)$ (1.61)$ (2.89)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (3.42)$ (2.01)$ (2.55)$ (1.87)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Sep (1.49)$ (1.49)$ (2.90)$ (1.53)$ (2.90)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (2.02)$ (2.02)$ (3.43)$ (1.96)$ (2.49)$ (1.80)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 Oct (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (2.96)$ (1.56)$ (2.96)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (3.50)$ (2.01)$ (2.54)$ (1.84)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Nov (2.12)$ (2.08)$ (2.91)$ (2.20)$ (2.91)$ (2.20)$ (2.20)$ (2.20)$ (2.65)$ (2.61)$ (3.44)$ (2.37)$ (2.90)$ (2.34)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Dec (2.76)$ (2.28)$ (2.93)$ (2.84)$ (3.06)$ (2.84)$ (2.84)$ (2.84)$ (3.29)$ (2.81)$ (3.46)$ (2.66)$ (3.19)$ (2.89)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Jan (2.83)$ (2.38)$ (2.93)$ (2.52)$ (2.97)$ (2.52)$ (2.52)$ (2.52)$ (3.36)$ (2.91)$ (3.46)$ (2.71)$ (3.24)$ (2.61)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Feb (2.64)$ (2.33)$ (2.96)$ (2.43)$ (3.08)$ (2.43)$ (2.43)$ (2.43)$ (3.17)$ (2.86)$ (3.49)$ (2.64)$ (3.18)$ (2.56)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Mar (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.93)$ (2.19)$ (2.93)$ (2.19)$ (2.19)$ (2.19)$ (2.67)$ (2.67)$ (3.46)$ (2.40)$ (2.93)$ (2.34)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Apr (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.93)$ (1.87)$ (2.93)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.36)$ (2.36)$ (3.46)$ (2.20)$ (2.73)$ (2.08)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 May (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.94)$ (1.87)$ (2.94)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.36)$ (2.36)$ (3.47)$ (2.20)$ (2.73)$ (2.09)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Jun (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (2.95)$ (1.88)$ (2.95)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (2.37)$ (2.37)$ (3.48)$ (2.21)$ (2.74)$ (2.09)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Jul (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.96)$ (1.94)$ (2.96)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (2.43)$ (2.43)$ (3.49)$ (2.25)$ (2.78)$ (2.14)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Aug (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (2.97)$ (1.97)$ (2.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (3.50)$ (2.27)$ (2.81)$ (2.17)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Sep (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (2.98)$ (1.92)$ (2.98)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (2.41)$ (2.41)$ (3.51)$ (2.24)$ (2.78)$ (2.13)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 Oct (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (3.19)$ (1.98)$ (3.19)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (2.47)$ (2.47)$ (3.72)$ (2.36)$ (2.89)$ (2.22)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Nov (2.41)$ (2.37)$ (3.09)$ (2.48)$ (3.09)$ (2.48)$ (2.48)$ (2.48)$ (2.94)$ (2.90)$ (3.62)$ (2.62)$ (3.15)$ (2.60)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Dec (3.01)$ (2.53)$ (3.10)$ (3.05)$ (3.23)$ (3.05)$ (3.05)$ (3.05)$ (3.54)$ (3.06)$ (3.63)$ (2.88)$ (3.41)$ (3.09)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Jan (3.14)$ (2.81)$ (3.14)$ (3.81)$ (4.08)$ (3.81)$ (3.81)$ (3.81)$ (3.77)$ (3.44)$ (3.77)$ (3.03)$ (3.66)$ (3.87)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Feb (3.00)$ (2.75)$ (3.16)$ (3.75)$ (4.25)$ (3.75)$ (3.75)$ (3.75)$ (3.64)$ (3.38)$ (3.79)$ (2.97)$ (3.61)$ (3.85)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Mar (2.63)$ (2.63)$ (3.12)$ (3.63)$ (4.07)$ (3.63)$ (3.63)$ (3.63)$ (3.27)$ (3.27)$ (3.76)$ (2.79)$ (3.43)$ (3.72)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Apr (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (3.13)$ (3.29)$ (4.08)$ (3.29)$ (3.29)$ (3.29)$ (2.93)$ (2.93)$ (3.77)$ (2.57)$ (3.21)$ (3.45)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 May (2.28)$ (2.28)$ (3.14)$ (3.27)$ (4.08)$ (3.27)$ (3.27)$ (3.27)$ (2.91)$ (2.91)$ (3.77)$ (2.56)$ (3.20)$ (3.43)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Jun (2.32)$ (2.32)$ (3.15)$ (3.31)$ (4.09)$ (3.31)$ (3.31)$ (3.31)$ (2.95)$ (2.95)$ (3.78)$ (2.59)$ (3.23)$ (3.47)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Jul (2.42)$ (2.42)$ (3.15)$ (3.42)$ (4.10)$ (3.42)$ (3.42)$ (3.42)$ (3.05)$ (3.05)$ (3.79)$ (2.66)$ (3.30)$ (3.55)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Aug (2.44)$ (2.44)$ (3.16)$ (3.44)$ (4.11)$ (3.44)$ (3.44)$ (3.44)$ (3.08)$ (3.08)$ (3.80)$ (2.68)$ (3.32)$ (3.58)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Sep (2.36)$ (2.36)$ (3.17)$ (3.36)$ (4.12)$ (3.36)$ (3.36)$ (3.36)$ (3.00)$ (3.00)$ (3.81)$ (2.63)$ (3.27)$ (3.51)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 Oct (2.42)$ (2.42)$ (3.28)$ (3.42)$ (4.23)$ (3.42)$ (3.42)$ (3.42)$ (3.06)$ (3.06)$ (3.91)$ (2.71)$ (3.34)$ (3.58)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Nov (2.98)$ (2.94)$ (3.35)$ (3.98)$ (4.29)$ (3.98)$ (3.98)$ (3.98)$ (3.61)$ (3.57)$ (3.98)$ (3.09)$ (3.72)$ (4.04)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Dec (3.39)$ (3.10)$ (3.39)$ (4.42)$ (4.50)$ (4.42)$ (4.42)$ (4.42)$ (4.03)$ (3.73)$ (4.03)$ (3.29)$ (3.93)$ (4.43)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Jan (3.40)$ (3.23)$ (3.40)$ (4.31)$ (4.42)$ (4.31)$ (4.31)$ (4.31)$ (4.14)$ (3.98)$ (4.14)$ (3.35)$ (4.09)$ (4.33)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Feb (3.38)$ (3.26)$ (3.43)$ (4.34)$ (4.57)$ (4.34)$ (4.34)$ (4.34)$ (4.13)$ (4.00)$ (4.17)$ (3.36)$ (4.10)$ (4.39)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Mar (3.16)$ (3.16)$ (3.37)$ (4.24)$ (4.38)$ (4.24)$ (4.24)$ (4.24)$ (3.91)$ (3.91)$ (4.11)$ (3.23)$ (3.98)$ (4.27)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Apr (2.79)$ (2.79)$ (3.38)$ (3.86)$ (4.39)$ (3.86)$ (3.86)$ (3.86)$ (3.53)$ (3.53)$ (4.12)$ (2.98)$ (3.73)$ (3.96)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 May (2.79)$ (2.79)$ (3.39)$ (3.87)$ (4.40)$ (3.87)$ (3.87)$ (3.87)$ (3.54)$ (3.54)$ (4.13)$ (2.99)$ (3.73)$ (3.97)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Jun (2.79)$ (2.79)$ (3.39)$ (3.86)$ (4.41)$ (3.86)$ (3.86)$ (3.86)$ (3.53)$ (3.53)$ (4.14)$ (2.99)$ (3.73)$ (3.97)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Jul (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (3.40)$ (3.93)$ (4.42)$ (3.93)$ (3.93)$ (3.93)$ (3.60)$ (3.60)$ (4.15)$ (3.04)$ (3.78)$ (4.03)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Aug (2.88)$ (2.88)$ (3.41)$ (3.96)$ (4.43)$ (3.96)$ (3.96)$ (3.96)$ (3.63)$ (3.63)$ (4.16)$ (3.06)$ (3.80)$ (4.05)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Sep (2.91)$ (2.91)$ (3.42)$ (3.99)$ (4.43)$ (3.99)$ (3.99)$ (3.99)$ (3.66)$ (3.66)$ (4.16)$ (3.08)$ (3.83)$ (4.08)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 Oct (2.93)$ (2.93)$ (3.60)$ (4.00)$ (4.61)$ (4.00)$ (4.00)$ (4.00)$ (3.67)$ (3.67)$ (4.34)$ (3.15)$ (3.90)$ (4.13)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Nov (3.35)$ (3.31)$ (3.76)$ (4.43)$ (4.77)$ (4.43)$ (4.43)$ (4.43)$ (4.09)$ (4.05)$ (4.50)$ (3.47)$ (4.21)$ (4.50)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Dec (3.80)$ (3.51)$ (3.80)$ (4.88)$ (4.97)$ (4.88)$ (4.88)$ (4.88)$ (4.55)$ (4.26)$ (4.55)$ (3.71)$ (4.45)$ (4.90)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Jan (3.81)$ (3.62)$ (3.81)$ (4.77)$ (4.90)$ (4.77)$ (4.77)$ (4.77)$ (4.66)$ (4.47)$ (4.66)$ (3.75)$ (4.60)$ (4.80)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Feb (3.74)$ (3.57)$ (3.83)$ (4.73)$ (5.04)$ (4.73)$ (4.73)$ (4.73)$ (4.59)$ (4.42)$ (4.68)$ (3.72)$ (4.57)$ (4.79)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Mar (3.51)$ (3.51)$ (3.79)$ (4.67)$ (4.87)$ (4.67)$ (4.67)$ (4.67)$ (4.36)$ (4.36)$ (4.64)$ (3.60)$ (4.45)$ (4.71)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Apr (3.12)$ (3.12)$ (3.79)$ (4.26)$ (4.88)$ (4.26)$ (4.26)$ (4.26)$ (3.96)$ (3.96)$ (4.64)$ (3.34)$ (4.19)$ (4.39)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 May (3.19)$ (3.19)$ (3.80)$ (4.34)$ (4.89)$ (4.34)$ (4.34)$ (4.34)$ (4.04)$ (4.04)$ (4.65)$ (3.39)$ (4.24)$ (4.45)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Jun (3.23)$ (3.23)$ (3.81)$ (4.38)$ (4.90)$ (4.38)$ (4.38)$ (4.38)$ (4.07)$ (4.07)$ (4.66)$ (3.42)$ (4.27)$ (4.48)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Jul (3.25)$ (3.25)$ (3.82)$ (4.40)$ (4.91)$ (4.40)$ (4.40)$ (4.40)$ (4.09)$ (4.09)$ (4.67)$ (3.44)$ (4.29)$ (4.50)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Aug (3.34)$ (3.34)$ (3.83)$ (4.49)$ (4.91)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.19)$ (4.19)$ (4.68)$ (3.50)$ (4.35)$ (4.58)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Sep (3.33)$ (3.33)$ (3.84)$ (4.49)$ (4.92)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.18)$ (4.18)$ (4.69)$ (3.50)$ (4.35)$ (4.57)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 Oct (3.34)$ (3.34)$ (3.99)$ (4.49)$ (5.08)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.19)$ (4.19)$ (4.84)$ (3.56)$ (4.41)$ (4.61)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Nov (3.84)$ (3.80)$ (4.52)$ (5.03)$ (5.60)$ (5.03)$ (5.03)$ (5.03)$ (4.69)$ (4.65)$ (5.37)$ (4.06)$ (4.90)$ (5.14)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Dec (4.48)$ (4.04)$ (4.54)$ (5.62)$ (5.72)$ (5.62)$ (5.62)$ (5.62)$ (5.33)$ (4.89)$ (5.39)$ (4.35)$ (5.20)$ (5.64)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Jan (4.57)$ (4.16)$ (4.57)$ (5.40)$ (5.73)$ (5.40)$ (5.40)$ (5.40)$ (5.52)$ (5.11)$ (5.52)$ (4.43)$ (5.39)$ (5.47)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Feb (4.40)$ (4.16)$ (4.58)$ (5.40)$ (5.82)$ (5.40)$ (5.40)$ (5.40)$ (5.36)$ (5.11)$ (5.53)$ (4.38)$ (5.33)$ (5.48)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Mar (4.11)$ (4.11)$ (4.56)$ (5.35)$ (5.72)$ (5.35)$ (5.35)$ (5.35)$ (5.06)$ (5.06)$ (5.51)$ (4.26)$ (5.21)$ (5.42)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Apr (3.84)$ (3.84)$ (4.56)$ (5.08)$ (5.72)$ (5.08)$ (5.08)$ (5.08)$ (4.80)$ (4.80)$ (5.52)$ (4.08)$ (5.04)$ (5.21)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 May (3.84)$ (3.84)$ (4.57)$ (5.08)$ (5.73)$ (5.08)$ (5.08)$ (5.08)$ (4.80)$ (4.80)$ (5.53)$ (4.09)$ (5.04)$ (5.21)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Jun (3.82)$ (3.82)$ (4.58)$ (5.05)$ (5.74)$ (5.05)$ (5.05)$ (5.05)$ (4.77)$ (4.77)$ (5.54)$ (4.07)$ (5.03)$ (5.19)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Jul (3.99)$ (3.99)$ (4.59)$ (5.22)$ (5.75)$ (5.22)$ (5.22)$ (5.22)$ (4.94)$ (4.94)$ (5.55)$ (4.19)$ (5.14)$ (5.33)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Aug (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (4.60)$ (5.37)$ (5.76)$ (5.37)$ (5.37)$ (5.37)$ (5.09)$ (5.09)$ (5.56)$ (4.29)$ (5.24)$ (5.45)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Sep (4.10)$ (4.10)$ (4.61)$ (5.34)$ (5.77)$ (5.34)$ (5.34)$ (5.34)$ (5.06)$ (5.06)$ (5.56)$ (4.27)$ (5.23)$ (5.43)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 Oct (4.16)$ (4.16)$ (4.84)$ (5.40)$ (6.00)$ (5.40)$ (5.40)$ (5.40)$ (5.11)$ (5.11)$ (5.79)$ (4.38)$ (5.34)$ (5.52)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Nov (4.45)$ (4.41)$ (5.02)$ (5.71)$ (6.18)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.40)$ (5.36)$ (5.98)$ (4.63)$ (5.58)$ (5.80)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Dec (4.97)$ (4.53)$ (5.04)$ (6.20)$ (6.29)$ (6.20)$ (6.20)$ (6.20)$ (5.92)$ (5.48)$ (6.00)$ (4.85)$ (5.80)$ (6.22)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Jan (5.02)$ (4.61)$ (5.04)$ (5.94)$ (6.28)$ (5.94)$ (5.94)$ (5.94)$ (6.08)$ (5.67)$ (6.10)$ (4.89)$ (5.95)$ (6.01)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Feb (4.89)$ (4.62)$ (5.08)$ (5.96)$ (6.41)$ (5.96)$ (5.96)$ (5.96)$ (5.96)$ (5.69)$ (6.15)$ (4.87)$ (5.93)$ (6.05)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Mar (4.43)$ (4.43)$ (5.06)$ (5.76)$ (6.30)$ (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.50)$ (5.50)$ (6.12)$ (4.64)$ (5.70)$ (5.87)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Apr (4.20)$ (4.20)$ (5.07)$ (5.52)$ (6.31)$ (5.52)$ (5.52)$ (5.52)$ (5.26)$ (5.26)$ (6.13)$ (4.49)$ (5.55)$ (5.68)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 May (4.24)$ (4.24)$ (5.08)$ (5.57)$ (6.32)$ (5.57)$ (5.57)$ (5.57)$ (5.30)$ (5.30)$ (6.14)$ (4.52)$ (5.58)$ (5.72)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Jun (4.35)$ (4.35)$ (5.09)$ (5.67)$ (6.33)$ (5.67)$ (5.67)$ (5.67)$ (5.41)$ (5.41)$ (6.15)$ (4.59)$ (5.66)$ (5.80)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Jul (4.43)$ (4.43)$ (5.10)$ (5.76)$ (6.34)$ (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.50)$ (5.50)$ (6.16)$ (4.66)$ (5.72)$ (5.88)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Aug (4.48)$ (4.48)$ (5.11)$ (5.81)$ (6.35)$ (5.81)$ (5.81)$ (5.81)$ (5.54)$ (5.54)$ (6.17)$ (4.69)$ (5.75)$ (5.91)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Sep (4.41)$ (4.41)$ (5.12)$ (5.74)$ (6.36)$ (5.74)$ (5.74)$ (5.74)$ (5.48)$ (5.48)$ (6.18)$ (4.65)$ (5.71)$ (5.86)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 Oct (4.41)$ (4.41)$ (5.19)$ (5.74)$ (6.43)$ (5.74)$ (5.74)$ (5.74)$ (5.47)$ (5.47)$ (6.25)$ (4.67)$ (5.73)$ (5.88)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Nov (4.63)$ (4.59)$ (5.24)$ (5.98)$ (6.48)$ (5.98)$ (5.98)$ (5.98)$ (5.69)$ (5.65)$ (6.30)$ (4.82)$ (5.88)$ (6.08)$
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 230
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: LOW GROWTH – HIGH PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR Annual
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Dec (5.17)$ (4.73)$ (5.26)$ (6.51)$ (6.57)$ (6.51)$ (6.51)$ (6.51)$ (6.23)$ (5.79)$ (6.32)$ (5.05)$ (6.11)$ (6.52)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Jan (5.27)$ (4.87)$ (5.27)$ (6.29)$ (6.60)$ (6.29)$ (6.29)$ (6.29)$ (6.44)$ (6.04)$ (6.44)$ (5.14)$ (6.30)$ (6.35)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Feb (5.12)$ (4.86)$ (5.30)$ (6.28)$ (6.71)$ (6.28)$ (6.28)$ (6.28)$ (6.29)$ (6.02)$ (6.47)$ (5.09)$ (6.26)$ (6.36)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Mar (4.67)$ (4.67)$ (5.28)$ (6.08)$ (6.60)$ (6.08)$ (6.08)$ (6.08)$ (5.83)$ (5.83)$ (6.45)$ (4.87)$ (6.04)$ (6.19)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Apr (4.46)$ (4.46)$ (5.29)$ (5.87)$ (6.61)$ (5.87)$ (5.87)$ (5.87)$ (5.62)$ (5.62)$ (6.45)$ (4.73)$ (5.90)$ (6.02)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 May (4.52)$ (4.52)$ (5.30)$ (5.93)$ (6.62)$ (5.93)$ (5.93)$ (5.93)$ (5.69)$ (5.69)$ (6.46)$ (4.78)$ (5.95)$ (6.07)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Jun (4.62)$ (4.62)$ (5.31)$ (6.04)$ (6.63)$ (6.04)$ (6.04)$ (6.04)$ (5.79)$ (5.79)$ (6.47)$ (4.85)$ (6.02)$ (6.16)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Jul (4.77)$ (4.77)$ (5.32)$ (6.19)$ (6.64)$ (6.19)$ (6.19)$ (6.19)$ (5.93)$ (5.93)$ (6.48)$ (4.95)$ (6.12)$ (6.28)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Aug (4.81)$ (4.81)$ (5.33)$ (6.23)$ (6.65)$ (6.23)$ (6.23)$ (6.23)$ (5.98)$ (5.98)$ (6.49)$ (4.98)$ (6.15)$ (6.31)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Sep (4.71)$ (4.71)$ (5.33)$ (6.13)$ (6.66)$ (6.13)$ (6.13)$ (6.13)$ (5.88)$ (5.88)$ (6.50)$ (4.92)$ (6.09)$ (6.24)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 Oct (4.76)$ (4.76)$ (5.39)$ (6.18)$ (6.72)$ (6.18)$ (6.18)$ (6.18)$ (5.93)$ (5.93)$ (6.56)$ (4.97)$ (6.14)$ (6.29)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Nov (4.97)$ (4.93)$ (5.55)$ (6.41)$ (6.88)$ (6.41)$ (6.41)$ (6.41)$ (6.14)$ (6.10)$ (6.72)$ (5.15)$ (6.32)$ (6.50)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Dec (5.55)$ (5.13)$ (5.57)$ (6.92)$ (6.96)$ (6.92)$ (6.92)$ (6.92)$ (6.72)$ (6.30)$ (6.74)$ (5.42)$ (6.59)$ (6.93)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Jan (5.63)$ (5.27)$ (5.63)$ (6.79)$ (7.05)$ (6.79)$ (6.79)$ (6.79)$ (6.90)$ (6.54)$ (6.90)$ (5.51)$ (6.78)$ (6.84)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Feb (5.43)$ (5.28)$ (5.61)$ (6.80)$ (7.10)$ (6.80)$ (6.80)$ (6.80)$ (6.70)$ (6.55)$ (6.89)$ (5.44)$ (6.71)$ (6.86)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Mar (5.14)$ (5.14)$ (5.59)$ (6.66)$ (7.01)$ (6.66)$ (6.66)$ (6.66)$ (6.42)$ (6.42)$ (6.87)$ (5.29)$ (6.57)$ (6.73)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Apr (4.98)$ (4.98)$ (5.60)$ (6.49)$ (7.02)$ (6.49)$ (6.49)$ (6.49)$ (6.25)$ (6.25)$ (6.87)$ (5.18)$ (6.46)$ (6.60)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 May (4.95)$ (4.95)$ (5.61)$ (6.46)$ (7.03)$ (6.46)$ (6.46)$ (6.46)$ (6.22)$ (6.22)$ (6.88)$ (5.17)$ (6.44)$ (6.58)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Jun (5.11)$ (5.11)$ (5.62)$ (6.63)$ (7.04)$ (6.63)$ (6.63)$ (6.63)$ (6.39)$ (6.39)$ (6.89)$ (5.28)$ (6.56)$ (6.71)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Jul (5.26)$ (5.26)$ (5.63)$ (6.78)$ (7.05)$ (6.78)$ (6.78)$ (6.78)$ (6.54)$ (6.54)$ (6.90)$ (5.38)$ (6.66)$ (6.83)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Aug (5.32)$ (5.32)$ (5.64)$ (6.84)$ (7.06)$ (6.84)$ (6.84)$ (6.84)$ (6.59)$ (6.59)$ (6.91)$ (5.42)$ (6.70)$ (6.88)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Sep (5.24)$ (5.24)$ (5.65)$ (6.75)$ (7.07)$ (6.75)$ (6.75)$ (6.75)$ (6.51)$ (6.51)$ (6.92)$ (5.37)$ (6.65)$ (6.82)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 Oct (5.25)$ (5.25)$ (5.87)$ (6.77)$ (7.28)$ (6.77)$ (6.77)$ (6.77)$ (6.52)$ (6.52)$ (7.14)$ (5.45)$ (6.73)$ (6.87)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Nov (5.53)$ (5.49)$ (6.19)$ (7.08)$ (7.61)$ (7.08)$ (7.08)$ (7.08)$ (6.81)$ (6.77)$ (7.46)$ (5.74)$ (7.01)$ (7.18)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Dec (6.21)$ (5.80)$ (6.21)$ (7.64)$ (7.67)$ (7.64)$ (7.64)$ (7.64)$ (7.48)$ (7.08)$ (7.49)$ (6.07)$ (7.35)$ (7.64)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Jan (6.27)$ (5.91)$ (6.27)$ (7.54)$ (7.79)$ (7.54)$ (7.54)$ (7.54)$ (7.65)$ (7.29)$ (7.65)$ (6.15)$ (7.53)$ (7.59)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Feb (5.97)$ (5.79)$ (6.25)$ (7.42)$ (7.81)$ (7.42)$ (7.42)$ (7.42)$ (7.35)$ (7.17)$ (7.63)$ (6.00)$ (7.38)$ (7.50)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Mar (5.68)$ (5.68)$ (6.23)$ (7.31)$ (7.74)$ (7.31)$ (7.31)$ (7.31)$ (7.06)$ (7.06)$ (7.61)$ (5.86)$ (7.24)$ (7.40)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Apr (5.55)$ (5.55)$ (6.24)$ (7.18)$ (7.75)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (6.93)$ (6.93)$ (7.62)$ (5.78)$ (7.16)$ (7.29)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 May (5.54)$ (5.54)$ (6.25)$ (7.16)$ (7.76)$ (7.16)$ (7.16)$ (7.16)$ (6.92)$ (6.92)$ (7.63)$ (5.77)$ (7.15)$ (7.28)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Jun (5.74)$ (5.74)$ (6.26)$ (7.37)$ (7.77)$ (7.37)$ (7.37)$ (7.37)$ (7.12)$ (7.12)$ (7.64)$ (5.91)$ (7.29)$ (7.45)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Jul (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (6.27)$ (7.48)$ (7.78)$ (7.48)$ (7.48)$ (7.48)$ (7.23)$ (7.23)$ (7.65)$ (5.99)$ (7.37)$ (7.54)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Aug (5.93)$ (5.93)$ (6.28)$ (7.56)$ (7.79)$ (7.56)$ (7.56)$ (7.56)$ (7.31)$ (7.31)$ (7.66)$ (6.04)$ (7.42)$ (7.61)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Sep (5.77)$ (5.77)$ (6.29)$ (7.40)$ (7.80)$ (7.40)$ (7.40)$ (7.40)$ (7.15)$ (7.15)$ (7.67)$ (5.94)$ (7.32)$ (7.48)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 Oct (5.80)$ (5.80)$ (6.30)$ (7.43)$ (7.82)$ (7.43)$ (7.43)$ (7.43)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (7.68)$ (5.97)$ (7.35)$ (7.50)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Nov (6.02)$ (5.98)$ (6.59)$ (7.66)$ (8.11)$ (7.66)$ (7.66)$ (7.66)$ (7.40)$ (7.36)$ (7.97)$ (6.20)$ (7.58)$ (7.75)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Dec (6.61)$ (6.21)$ (6.62)$ (8.14)$ (8.17)$ (8.14)$ (8.14)$ (8.14)$ (7.99)$ (7.59)$ (8.00)$ (6.48)$ (7.86)$ (8.14)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Jan (6.66)$ (6.29)$ (6.66)$ (8.07)$ (8.28)$ (8.07)$ (8.07)$ (8.07)$ (8.14)$ (7.78)$ (8.14)$ (6.54)$ (8.02)$ (8.11)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Feb (6.51)$ (6.39)$ (6.65)$ (8.14)$ (8.31)$ (8.14)$ (8.14)$ (8.14)$ (7.99)$ (7.88)$ (8.14)$ (6.52)$ (8.00)$ (8.17)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Mar (6.22)$ (6.22)$ (6.63)$ (7.96)$ (8.25)$ (7.96)$ (7.96)$ (7.96)$ (7.71)$ (7.71)$ (8.12)$ (6.36)$ (7.84)$ (8.02)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Apr (6.07)$ (6.07)$ (6.64)$ (7.81)$ (8.26)$ (7.81)$ (7.81)$ (7.81)$ (7.55)$ (7.55)$ (8.13)$ (6.26)$ (7.75)$ (7.90)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 May (6.10)$ (6.10)$ (6.65)$ (7.84)$ (8.27)$ (7.84)$ (7.84)$ (7.84)$ (7.59)$ (7.59)$ (8.14)$ (6.28)$ (7.77)$ (7.93)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Jun (6.14)$ (6.14)$ (6.66)$ (7.88)$ (8.28)$ (7.88)$ (7.88)$ (7.88)$ (7.63)$ (7.63)$ (8.15)$ (6.31)$ (7.80)$ (7.96)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Jul (6.31)$ (6.31)$ (6.67)$ (8.05)$ (8.29)$ (8.05)$ (8.05)$ (8.05)$ (7.79)$ (7.79)$ (8.16)$ (6.43)$ (7.91)$ (8.10)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Aug (6.38)$ (6.38)$ (6.68)$ (8.12)$ (8.30)$ (8.12)$ (8.12)$ (8.12)$ (7.86)$ (7.86)$ (8.17)$ (6.48)$ (7.96)$ (8.16)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Sep (6.26)$ (6.26)$ (6.69)$ (8.00)$ (8.31)$ (8.00)$ (8.00)$ (8.00)$ (7.74)$ (7.74)$ (8.18)$ (6.40)$ (7.89)$ (8.06)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 Oct (6.37)$ (6.37)$ (6.76)$ (8.12)$ (8.38)$ (8.12)$ (8.12)$ (8.12)$ (7.86)$ (7.86)$ (8.24)$ (6.50)$ (7.99)$ (8.17)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Nov (6.57)$ (6.53)$ (7.06)$ (8.32)$ (8.68)$ (8.32)$ (8.32)$ (8.32)$ (8.06)$ (8.02)$ (8.55)$ (6.72)$ (8.21)$ (8.39)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Dec (7.17)$ (6.85)$ (7.17)$ (8.82)$ (8.82)$ (8.82)$ (8.82)$ (8.82)$ (8.66)$ (8.33)$ (8.66)$ (7.07)$ (8.55)$ (8.82)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Jan (7.18)$ (6.89)$ (7.18)$ (8.76)$ (8.92)$ (8.76)$ (8.76)$ (8.76)$ (8.78)$ (8.49)$ (8.78)$ (7.09)$ (8.68)$ (8.79)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Feb (7.04)$ (6.94)$ (7.15)$ (8.81)$ (8.93)$ (8.81)$ (8.81)$ (8.81)$ (8.63)$ (8.53)$ (8.75)$ (7.04)$ (8.64)$ (8.83)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Mar (6.70)$ (6.70)$ (7.14)$ (8.56)$ (8.87)$ (8.56)$ (8.56)$ (8.56)$ (8.29)$ (8.29)$ (8.73)$ (6.84)$ (8.44)$ (8.63)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Apr (6.54)$ (6.54)$ (7.14)$ (8.40)$ (8.88)$ (8.40)$ (8.40)$ (8.40)$ (8.13)$ (8.13)$ (8.74)$ (6.74)$ (8.33)$ (8.50)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 May (6.59)$ (6.59)$ (7.15)$ (8.46)$ (8.89)$ (8.46)$ (8.46)$ (8.46)$ (8.18)$ (8.18)$ (8.75)$ (6.78)$ (8.37)$ (8.54)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Jun (6.66)$ (6.66)$ (7.17)$ (8.52)$ (8.90)$ (8.52)$ (8.52)$ (8.52)$ (8.25)$ (8.25)$ (8.76)$ (6.83)$ (8.42)$ (8.60)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Jul (6.84)$ (6.84)$ (7.18)$ (8.70)$ (8.91)$ (8.70)$ (8.70)$ (8.70)$ (8.43)$ (8.43)$ (8.77)$ (6.95)$ (8.54)$ (8.75)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Aug (6.93)$ (6.93)$ (7.19)$ (8.80)$ (8.92)$ (8.80)$ (8.80)$ (8.80)$ (8.52)$ (8.52)$ (8.78)$ (7.02)$ (8.61)$ (8.82)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Sep (6.83)$ (6.83)$ (7.20)$ (8.70)$ (8.93)$ (8.70)$ (8.70)$ (8.70)$ (8.42)$ (8.42)$ (8.79)$ (6.95)$ (8.55)$ (8.75)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 Oct (6.88)$ (6.88)$ (7.34)$ (8.75)$ (9.08)$ (8.75)$ (8.75)$ (8.75)$ (8.47)$ (8.47)$ (8.94)$ (7.04)$ (8.63)$ (8.82)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Nov (6.92)$ (6.92)$ (7.48)$ (8.84)$ (9.23)$ (8.84)$ (8.84)$ (8.84)$ (8.51)$ (8.51)$ (9.07)$ (7.10)$ (8.69)$ (8.92)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Dec (7.56)$ (7.22)$ (7.56)$ (9.38)$ (9.37)$ (9.38)$ (9.38)$ (9.38)$ (9.15)$ (8.81)$ (9.15)$ (7.44)$ (9.04)$ (9.38)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Jan (7.57)$ (7.35)$ (7.57)$ (9.35)$ (9.43)$ (9.35)$ (9.35)$ (9.35)$ (9.16)$ (8.94)$ (9.16)$ (7.50)$ (9.09)$ (9.36)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Feb (7.46)$ (7.37)$ (7.54)$ (9.37)$ (9.44)$ (9.37)$ (9.37)$ (9.37)$ (9.05)$ (8.96)$ (9.13)$ (7.45)$ (9.05)$ (9.38)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Mar (7.12)$ (7.12)$ (7.52)$ (9.11)$ (9.38)$ (9.11)$ (9.11)$ (9.11)$ (8.71)$ (8.71)$ (9.11)$ (7.25)$ (8.84)$ (9.17)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Apr (6.85)$ (6.85)$ (7.53)$ (8.84)$ (9.39)$ (8.84)$ (8.84)$ (8.84)$ (8.44)$ (8.44)$ (9.12)$ (7.08)$ (8.67)$ (8.95)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 May (6.96)$ (6.96)$ (7.54)$ (8.96)$ (9.39)$ (8.96)$ (8.96)$ (8.96)$ (8.56)$ (8.56)$ (9.13)$ (7.16)$ (8.75)$ (9.04)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Jun (7.05)$ (7.05)$ (7.55)$ (9.04)$ (9.41)$ (9.04)$ (9.04)$ (9.04)$ (8.64)$ (8.64)$ (9.14)$ (7.21)$ (8.81)$ (9.11)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Jul (7.30)$ (7.30)$ (7.56)$ (9.29)$ (9.42)$ (9.29)$ (9.29)$ (9.29)$ (8.89)$ (8.89)$ (9.15)$ (7.38)$ (8.97)$ (9.32)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Aug (7.38)$ (7.38)$ (7.57)$ (9.38)$ (9.43)$ (9.38)$ (9.38)$ (9.38)$ (8.97)$ (8.97)$ (9.16)$ (7.44)$ (9.04)$ (9.39)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Sep (7.26)$ (7.26)$ (7.58)$ (9.26)$ (9.44)$ (9.26)$ (9.26)$ (9.26)$ (8.85)$ (8.85)$ (9.17)$ (7.37)$ (8.96)$ (9.29)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 Oct (7.28)$ (7.28)$ (7.67)$ (9.28)$ (9.52)$ (9.28)$ (9.28)$ (9.28)$ (8.88)$ (8.88)$ (9.26)$ (7.41)$ (9.00)$ (9.33)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Nov (7.34)$ (7.34)$ (7.83)$ (9.39)$ (9.70)$ (9.39)$ (9.39)$ (9.39)$ (8.93)$ (8.93)$ (9.42)$ (7.50)$ (9.09)$ (9.45)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Dec (7.88)$ (7.52)$ (7.88)$ (9.84)$ (9.84)$ (9.84)$ (9.84)$ (9.84)$ (9.47)$ (9.12)$ (9.47)$ (7.76)$ (9.35)$ (9.84)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Jan (7.91)$ (7.70)$ (7.91)$ (9.83)$ (9.90)$ (9.83)$ (9.83)$ (9.83)$ (9.50)$ (9.29)$ (9.50)$ (7.84)$ (9.43)$ (9.85)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Feb (7.73)$ (7.61)$ (7.89)$ (9.74)$ (9.93)$ (9.74)$ (9.74)$ (9.74)$ (9.33)$ (9.20)$ (9.48)$ (7.74)$ (9.34)$ (9.78)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Mar (7.41)$ (7.41)$ (7.87)$ (9.54)$ (9.86)$ (9.54)$ (9.54)$ (9.54)$ (9.00)$ (9.00)$ (9.46)$ (7.56)$ (9.16)$ (9.60)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Apr (7.14)$ (7.14)$ (7.88)$ (9.27)$ (9.87)$ (9.27)$ (9.27)$ (9.27)$ (8.74)$ (8.74)$ (9.47)$ (7.39)$ (8.98)$ (9.39)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 May (7.21)$ (7.21)$ (7.89)$ (9.34)$ (9.88)$ (9.34)$ (9.34)$ (9.34)$ (8.80)$ (8.80)$ (9.48)$ (7.44)$ (9.03)$ (9.45)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Jun (7.28)$ (7.28)$ (7.90)$ (9.41)$ (9.89)$ (9.41)$ (9.41)$ (9.41)$ (8.87)$ (8.87)$ (9.49)$ (7.49)$ (9.08)$ (9.50)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Jul (7.51)$ (7.51)$ (7.91)$ (9.64)$ (9.90)$ (9.64)$ (9.64)$ (9.64)$ (9.10)$ (9.10)$ (9.51)$ (7.64)$ (9.24)$ (9.69)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Aug (7.62)$ (7.62)$ (7.92)$ (9.76)$ (9.91)$ (9.76)$ (9.76)$ (9.76)$ (9.21)$ (9.21)$ (9.52)$ (7.72)$ (9.31)$ (9.79)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Sep (7.53)$ (7.53)$ (7.93)$ (9.66)$ (9.92)$ (9.66)$ (9.66)$ (9.66)$ (9.12)$ (9.12)$ (9.53)$ (7.66)$ (9.26)$ (9.71)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 Oct (7.63)$ (7.63)$ (8.06)$ (9.76)$ (10.05)$ (9.76)$ (9.76)$ (9.76)$ (9.22)$ (9.22)$ (9.65)$ (7.77)$ (9.37)$ (9.82)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Nov (7.66)$ (7.66)$ (8.28)$ (9.85)$ (10.28)$ (9.85)$ (9.85)$ (9.85)$ (9.26)$ (9.26)$ (9.87)$ (7.87)$ (9.46)$ (9.94)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Dec (8.37)$ (8.04)$ (8.37)$ (10.42)$ (10.40)$ (10.42)$ (10.42)$ (10.42)$ (9.96)$ (9.63)$ (9.96)$ (8.26)$ (9.85)$ (10.42)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Jan (8.37)$ (8.15)$ (8.37)$ (10.43)$ (10.50)$ (10.43)$ (10.43)$ (10.43)$ (9.96)$ (9.74)$ (9.96)$ (8.29)$ (9.89)$ (10.44)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Feb (8.25)$ (8.16)$ (8.35)$ (10.44)$ (10.51)$ (10.44)$ (10.44)$ (10.44)$ (9.85)$ (9.75)$ (9.94)$ (8.25)$ (9.84)$ (10.45)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Mar (7.91)$ (7.91)$ (8.33)$ (10.19)$ (10.45)$ (10.19)$ (10.19)$ (10.19)$ (9.51)$ (9.51)$ (9.92)$ (8.05)$ (9.64)$ (10.25)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Apr (7.64)$ (7.64)$ (8.34)$ (9.91)$ (10.46)$ (9.91)$ (9.91)$ (9.91)$ (9.23)$ (9.23)$ (9.93)$ (7.87)$ (9.46)$ (10.02)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 May (7.69)$ (7.69)$ (8.35)$ (9.97)$ (10.48)$ (9.97)$ (9.97)$ (9.97)$ (9.28)$ (9.28)$ (9.94)$ (7.91)$ (9.50)$ (10.07)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Jun (7.76)$ (7.76)$ (8.36)$ (10.03)$ (10.49)$ (10.03)$ (10.03)$ (10.03)$ (9.35)$ (9.35)$ (9.95)$ (7.96)$ (9.55)$ (10.13)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Jul (8.09)$ (8.09)$ (8.37)$ (10.38)$ (10.50)$ (10.38)$ (10.38)$ (10.38)$ (9.69)$ (9.69)$ (9.96)$ (8.19)$ (9.78)$ (10.40)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Aug (8.16)$ (8.16)$ (8.38)$ (10.44)$ (10.51)$ (10.44)$ (10.44)$ (10.44)$ (9.75)$ (9.75)$ (9.97)$ (8.23)$ (9.82)$ (10.45)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Sep (8.02)$ (8.02)$ (8.39)$ (10.30)$ (10.52)$ (10.30)$ (10.30)$ (10.30)$ (9.61)$ (9.61)$ (9.98)$ (8.14)$ (9.73)$ (10.34)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 Oct (8.02)$ (8.02)$ (8.49)$ (10.30)$ (10.62)$ (10.30)$ (10.30)$ (10.30)$ (9.61)$ (9.61)$ (10.09)$ (8.18)$ (9.77)$ (10.37)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Nov (8.16)$ (8.16)$ (8.72)$ (10.49)$ (10.85)$ (10.49)$ (10.49)$ (10.49)$ (9.75)$ (9.75)$ (10.31)$ (8.35)$ (9.94)$ (10.56)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Dec (8.80)$ (8.48)$ (8.80)$ (11.07)$ (11.04)$ (11.07)$ (11.07)$ (11.07)$ (10.39)$ (10.07)$ (10.39)$ (8.69)$ (10.29)$ (11.07)$
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 231
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: LOW GROWTH – HIGH PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR Annual
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Jan (8.80)$ (8.56)$ (8.80)$ (11.00)$ (11.08)$ (11.00)$ (11.00)$ (11.00)$ (10.40)$ (10.15)$ (10.40)$ (8.72)$ (10.31)$ (11.02)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Feb (8.71)$ (8.62)$ (8.79)$ (11.06)$ (11.15)$ (11.06)$ (11.06)$ (11.06)$ (10.30)$ (10.21)$ (10.38)$ (8.71)$ (10.30)$ (11.08)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Mar (8.27)$ (8.27)$ (8.76)$ (10.71)$ (11.04)$ (10.71)$ (10.71)$ (10.71)$ (9.87)$ (9.87)$ (10.35)$ (8.44)$ (10.03)$ (10.77)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Apr (8.02)$ (8.02)$ (8.77)$ (10.45)$ (11.05)$ (10.45)$ (10.45)$ (10.45)$ (9.61)$ (9.61)$ (10.36)$ (8.27)$ (9.86)$ (10.57)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 May (8.04)$ (8.04)$ (8.78)$ (10.47)$ (11.06)$ (10.47)$ (10.47)$ (10.47)$ (9.64)$ (9.64)$ (10.37)$ (8.29)$ (9.88)$ (10.59)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Jun (8.18)$ (8.18)$ (8.79)$ (10.61)$ (11.07)$ (10.61)$ (10.61)$ (10.61)$ (9.77)$ (9.77)$ (10.38)$ (8.38)$ (9.98)$ (10.70)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Jul (8.51)$ (8.51)$ (8.80)$ (10.95)$ (11.08)$ (10.95)$ (10.95)$ (10.95)$ (10.11)$ (10.11)$ (10.40)$ (8.61)$ (10.20)$ (10.98)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Aug (8.55)$ (8.55)$ (8.82)$ (10.99)$ (11.09)$ (10.99)$ (10.99)$ (10.99)$ (10.14)$ (10.14)$ (10.41)$ (8.64)$ (10.23)$ (11.01)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Sep (8.35)$ (8.35)$ (8.83)$ (10.78)$ (11.10)$ (10.78)$ (10.78)$ (10.78)$ (9.94)$ (9.94)$ (10.42)$ (8.51)$ (10.10)$ (10.85)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 Oct (8.41)$ (8.41)$ (9.06)$ (10.85)$ (11.33)$ (10.85)$ (10.85)$ (10.85)$ (10.00)$ (10.00)$ (10.65)$ (8.63)$ (10.22)$ (10.95)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Nov (8.58)$ (8.58)$ (9.12)$ (11.08)$ (11.41)$ (11.08)$ (11.08)$ (11.08)$ (10.17)$ (10.17)$ (10.71)$ (8.76)$ (10.35)$ (11.15)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Dec (9.17)$ (8.83)$ (9.17)$ (11.65)$ (11.63)$ (11.65)$ (11.65)$ (11.65)$ (10.76)$ (10.42)$ (10.76)$ (9.06)$ (10.65)$ (11.65)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Jan (9.22)$ (9.05)$ (9.22)$ (11.66)$ (11.68)$ (11.66)$ (11.66)$ (11.66)$ (10.82)$ (10.64)$ (10.82)$ (9.17)$ (10.76)$ (11.66)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Feb (9.13)$ (9.04)$ (9.20)$ (11.64)$ (11.74)$ (11.64)$ (11.64)$ (11.64)$ (10.72)$ (10.63)$ (10.79)$ (9.12)$ (10.71)$ (11.66)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Mar (8.75)$ (8.75)$ (9.16)$ (11.35)$ (11.60)$ (11.35)$ (11.35)$ (11.35)$ (10.34)$ (10.34)$ (10.75)$ (8.89)$ (10.48)$ (11.40)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Apr (8.51)$ (8.51)$ (9.17)$ (11.11)$ (11.61)$ (11.11)$ (11.11)$ (11.11)$ (10.10)$ (10.10)$ (10.77)$ (8.73)$ (10.33)$ (11.21)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 May (8.45)$ (8.45)$ (9.18)$ (11.05)$ (11.62)$ (11.05)$ (11.05)$ (11.05)$ (10.05)$ (10.05)$ (10.78)$ (8.70)$ (10.29)$ (11.17)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Jun (8.59)$ (8.59)$ (9.20)$ (11.19)$ (11.63)$ (11.19)$ (11.19)$ (11.19)$ (10.18)$ (10.18)$ (10.79)$ (8.79)$ (10.38)$ (11.28)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Jul (8.89)$ (8.89)$ (9.21)$ (11.50)$ (11.64)$ (11.50)$ (11.50)$ (11.50)$ (10.48)$ (10.48)$ (10.80)$ (9.00)$ (10.59)$ (11.53)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Aug (9.02)$ (9.02)$ (9.22)$ (11.62)$ (11.65)$ (11.62)$ (11.62)$ (11.62)$ (10.61)$ (10.61)$ (10.81)$ (9.08)$ (10.68)$ (11.63)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Sep (8.81)$ (8.81)$ (9.23)$ (11.41)$ (11.67)$ (11.41)$ (11.41)$ (11.41)$ (10.40)$ (10.40)$ (10.82)$ (8.95)$ (10.54)$ (11.46)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 Oct (8.69)$ (8.69)$ (9.38)$ (11.29)$ (11.82)$ (11.29)$ (11.29)$ (11.29)$ (10.28)$ (10.28)$ (10.97)$ (8.92)$ (10.51)$ (11.40)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Nov (8.56)$ (8.56)$ (9.48)$ (11.23)$ (11.91)$ (11.23)$ (11.23)$ (11.23)$ (10.15)$ (10.15)$ (11.07)$ (8.86)$ (10.46)$ (11.37)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Dec (9.21)$ (8.77)$ (9.74)$ (12.11)$ (12.18)$ (12.11)$ (12.11)$ (12.11)$ (10.81)$ (10.36)$ (11.33)$ (9.24)$ (10.83)$ (12.13)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Jan (9.70)$ (9.37)$ (9.74)$ (12.13)$ (12.33)$ (12.13)$ (12.13)$ (12.13)$ (11.29)$ (10.96)$ (11.34)$ (9.60)$ (11.20)$ (12.17)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Feb (9.56)$ (9.46)$ (9.79)$ (12.22)$ (12.44)$ (12.22)$ (12.22)$ (12.22)$ (11.15)$ (11.05)$ (11.39)$ (9.60)$ (11.20)$ (12.26)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Mar (9.18)$ (9.18)$ (9.77)$ (11.94)$ (12.35)$ (11.94)$ (11.94)$ (11.94)$ (10.78)$ (10.78)$ (11.36)$ (9.38)$ (10.97)$ (12.02)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Apr (8.90)$ (8.90)$ (9.78)$ (11.65)$ (12.36)$ (11.65)$ (11.65)$ (11.65)$ (10.49)$ (10.49)$ (11.37)$ (9.19)$ (10.78)$ (11.79)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 May (8.94)$ (8.94)$ (9.79)$ (11.69)$ (12.37)$ (11.69)$ (11.69)$ (11.69)$ (10.53)$ (10.53)$ (11.38)$ (9.22)$ (10.82)$ (11.83)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Jun (9.17)$ (9.17)$ (9.80)$ (11.92)$ (12.38)$ (11.92)$ (11.92)$ (11.92)$ (10.76)$ (10.76)$ (11.39)$ (9.38)$ (10.97)$ (12.02)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Jul (9.74)$ (9.74)$ (9.88)$ (12.51)$ (12.47)$ (12.47)$ (12.47)$ (12.47)$ (11.33)$ (11.33)$ (11.48)$ (9.79)$ (11.38)$ (12.47)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Aug (9.97)$ (9.97)$ (10.11)$ (12.74)$ (12.69)$ (12.69)$ (12.69)$ (12.69)$ (11.56)$ (11.56)$ (11.70)$ (10.02)$ (11.61)$ (12.70)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Sep (9.55)$ (9.55)$ (9.84)$ (12.31)$ (12.42)$ (12.31)$ (12.31)$ (12.31)$ (11.14)$ (11.14)$ (11.43)$ (9.64)$ (11.24)$ (12.33)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 Oct (9.51)$ (9.51)$ (10.06)$ (12.28)$ (12.64)$ (12.28)$ (12.28)$ (12.28)$ (11.11)$ (11.11)$ (11.65)$ (9.70)$ (11.29)$ (12.35)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Nov (9.71)$ (9.71)$ (10.26)$ (12.55)$ (12.88)$ (12.55)$ (12.55)$ (12.55)$ (11.30)$ (11.30)$ (11.86)$ (9.90)$ (11.49)$ (12.61)$
Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Dec (10.37)$ (10.23)$ (10.37)$ (13.43)$ (13.39)$ (13.43)$ (13.43)$ (13.43)$ (11.97)$ (11.83)$ (11.97)$ (10.33)$ (11.92)$ (13.42)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Jan (10.38)$ (10.36)$ (10.38)$ (13.29)$ (13.29)$ (13.29)$ (13.29)$ (13.29)$ (11.97)$ (11.95)$ (11.97)$ (10.37)$ (11.97)$ (13.29)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Feb (10.51)$ (10.43)$ (10.52)$ (13.36)$ (13.47)$ (13.36)$ (13.36)$ (13.36)$ (12.11)$ (12.02)$ (12.11)$ (10.49)$ (12.08)$ (13.38)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Mar (9.88)$ (9.88)$ (10.49)$ (12.80)$ (13.23)$ (12.80)$ (12.80)$ (12.80)$ (11.47)$ (11.47)$ (12.08)$ (10.08)$ (11.67)$ (12.88)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Apr (9.29)$ (9.29)$ (9.70)$ (12.21)$ (12.43)$ (12.21)$ (12.21)$ (12.21)$ (10.88)$ (10.88)$ (11.29)$ (9.43)$ (11.02)$ (12.25)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 May (9.33)$ (9.33)$ (9.71)$ (12.24)$ (12.45)$ (12.24)$ (12.24)$ (12.24)$ (10.92)$ (10.92)$ (11.30)$ (9.46)$ (11.05)$ (12.28)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Jun (9.50)$ (9.50)$ (9.72)$ (12.42)$ (12.46)$ (12.42)$ (12.42)$ (12.42)$ (11.09)$ (11.09)$ (11.31)$ (9.57)$ (11.17)$ (12.42)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Jul (10.05)$ (10.05)$ (10.19)$ (12.98)$ (12.93)$ (12.93)$ (12.93)$ (12.93)$ (11.65)$ (11.65)$ (11.78)$ (10.10)$ (11.69)$ (12.94)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Aug (10.18)$ (10.18)$ (10.32)$ (13.11)$ (13.06)$ (13.06)$ (13.06)$ (13.06)$ (11.77)$ (11.77)$ (11.92)$ (10.23)$ (11.82)$ (13.07)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Sep (9.70)$ (9.70)$ (9.87)$ (12.62)$ (12.60)$ (12.60)$ (12.60)$ (12.60)$ (11.29)$ (11.29)$ (11.46)$ (9.75)$ (11.35)$ (12.61)$ Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 Oct (9.56)$ (9.56)$ (10.25)$ (12.48)$ (12.98)$ (12.48)$ (12.48)$ (12.48)$ (11.15)$ (11.15)$ (11.84)$ (9.79)$ (11.38)$ (12.58)$ 1/ Avoided costs are before Environmental Externalities adder.
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 232
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: EXPECTED MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR AnnualExpected Case 2017-2018 Nov (1.87)$ (1.83)$ (2.57)$ (1.94)$ (2.57)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.87)$ (1.83)$ (2.57)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (2.06)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Dec (2.13)$ (1.59)$ (2.58)$ (2.25)$ (2.72)$ (2.25)$ (2.25)$ (2.25)$ (2.13)$ (1.59)$ (2.58)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.35)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Jan (2.16)$ (1.69)$ (2.58)$ (2.00)$ (2.77)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.16)$ (1.69)$ (2.58)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ Expected Case 2017-2018 Feb (2.42)$ (2.17)$ (2.60)$ (2.27)$ (2.91)$ (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.42)$ (2.17)$ (2.60)$ (2.40)$ (2.40)$ (2.40)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Mar (0.95)$ (0.95)$ (2.60)$ (0.98)$ (2.60)$ (0.98)$ (0.98)$ (0.98)$ (0.95)$ (0.95)$ (2.60)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.30)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Apr (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.61)$ (1.11)$ (2.61)$ (1.11)$ (1.11)$ (1.11)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.61)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.41)$ Expected Case 2017-2018 May (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.61)$ (1.08)$ (2.61)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.61)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (1.38)$ Expected Case 2017-2018 Jun (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.62)$ (1.07)$ (2.62)$ (1.07)$ (1.07)$ (1.07)$ (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.62)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (1.38)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Jul (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.63)$ (1.12)$ (2.63)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.63)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.42)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Aug (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (2.64)$ (1.13)$ (2.64)$ (1.13)$ (1.13)$ (1.13)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (2.64)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.43)$ Expected Case 2017-2018 Sep (1.06)$ (1.06)$ (2.65)$ (1.08)$ (2.65)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.06)$ (1.06)$ (2.65)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.40)$
Expected Case 2017-2018 Oct (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (3.17)$ (1.12)$ (3.17)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (3.17)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.53)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Nov (1.57)$ (1.52)$ (2.66)$ (1.67)$ (2.66)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.57)$ (1.52)$ (2.66)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (1.87)$ Expected Case 2018-2019 Dec (2.25)$ (1.69)$ (2.68)$ (2.45)$ (2.86)$ (2.45)$ (2.45)$ (2.45)$ (2.25)$ (1.69)$ (2.68)$ (2.21)$ (2.21)$ (2.53)$ Expected Case 2018-2019 Jan (2.22)$ (1.75)$ (2.68)$ (2.00)$ (2.79)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.22)$ (1.75)$ (2.68)$ (2.22)$ (2.22)$ (2.16)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Feb (2.14)$ (1.76)$ (2.72)$ (1.90)$ (2.84)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.14)$ (1.76)$ (2.72)$ (2.21)$ (2.21)$ (2.08)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Mar (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.70)$ (1.66)$ (2.70)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.70)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.87)$ Expected Case 2018-2019 Apr (1.25)$ (1.25)$ (2.70)$ (1.28)$ (2.70)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.25)$ (1.25)$ (2.70)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.57)$ Expected Case 2018-2019 May (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.71)$ (1.27)$ (2.71)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.71)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (1.56)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Jun (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (2.72)$ (1.35)$ (2.72)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (2.72)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.63)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Jul (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (2.73)$ (1.44)$ (2.73)$ (1.44)$ (1.44)$ (1.44)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (3.26)$ (1.85)$ (2.38)$ (1.70)$ Expected Case 2018-2019 Aug (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (2.74)$ (1.44)$ (2.74)$ (1.44)$ (1.44)$ (1.44)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (3.27)$ (1.85)$ (2.38)$ (1.70)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Sep (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (2.75)$ (1.36)$ (2.75)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (3.28)$ (1.80)$ (2.33)$ (1.63)$
Expected Case 2018-2019 Oct (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (2.80)$ (1.39)$ (2.80)$ (1.39)$ (1.39)$ (1.39)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (3.33)$ (1.84)$ (2.37)$ (1.67)$ Expected Case 2019-2020 Nov (1.77)$ (1.72)$ (2.76)$ (1.86)$ (2.76)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (2.30)$ (2.26)$ (3.29)$ (2.09)$ (2.62)$ (2.04)$ Expected Case 2019-2020 Dec (2.45)$ (1.91)$ (2.78)$ (2.71)$ (2.92)$ (2.71)$ (2.71)$ (2.71)$ (2.98)$ (2.44)$ (3.31)$ (2.38)$ (2.91)$ (2.75)$
Expected Case 2019-2020 Jan (2.47)$ (2.01)$ (2.78)$ (2.17)$ (2.87)$ (2.17)$ (2.17)$ (2.17)$ (3.00)$ (2.54)$ (3.31)$ (2.42)$ (2.95)$ (2.31)$
Expected Case 2019-2020 Feb (2.31)$ (1.96)$ (2.79)$ (2.07)$ (2.88)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.84)$ (2.49)$ (3.32)$ (2.35)$ (2.88)$ (2.23)$ Expected Case 2019-2020 Mar (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (2.79)$ (1.83)$ (2.79)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.32)$ (2.32)$ (3.32)$ (2.12)$ (2.65)$ (2.02)$
Expected Case 2019-2020 Apr (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (2.59)$ (1.54)$ (2.59)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (3.12)$ (1.86)$ (2.39)$ (1.75)$
Expected Case 2019-2020 May (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (2.60)$ (1.54)$ (2.60)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (3.13)$ (1.87)$ (2.40)$ (1.75)$ Expected Case 2019-2020 Jun (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (2.60)$ (1.54)$ (2.60)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (3.13)$ (1.87)$ (2.40)$ (1.76)$ Expected Case 2019-2020 Jul (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (2.61)$ (1.60)$ (2.61)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (3.14)$ (1.91)$ (2.44)$ (1.80)$
Expected Case 2019-2020 Aug (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.62)$ (1.63)$ (2.62)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (3.15)$ (1.93)$ (2.46)$ (1.83)$
Expected Case 2019-2020 Sep (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (2.63)$ (1.58)$ (2.63)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (3.16)$ (1.90)$ (2.44)$ (1.79)$ Expected Case 2019-2020 Oct (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (2.85)$ (1.64)$ (2.85)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (3.38)$ (2.02)$ (2.55)$ (1.88)$ Expected Case 2020-2021 Nov (1.87)$ (1.83)$ (2.65)$ (1.95)$ (2.65)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.40)$ (2.36)$ (3.18)$ (2.12)$ (2.65)$ (2.09)$
Expected Case 2020-2021 Dec (2.48)$ (1.98)$ (2.66)$ (2.65)$ (2.82)$ (2.65)$ (2.65)$ (2.65)$ (3.01)$ (2.51)$ (3.19)$ (2.37)$ (2.90)$ (2.68)$
Expected Case 2020-2021 Jan (2.68)$ (2.23)$ (2.68)$ (3.22)$ (3.74)$ (3.22)$ (3.22)$ (3.22)$ (3.32)$ (2.86)$ (3.32)$ (2.53)$ (3.17)$ (3.33)$ Expected Case 2020-2021 Feb (2.55)$ (2.17)$ (2.68)$ (3.17)$ (3.76)$ (3.17)$ (3.17)$ (3.17)$ (3.19)$ (2.81)$ (3.32)$ (2.47)$ (3.11)$ (3.29)$
Expected Case 2020-2021 Mar (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.63)$ (3.06)$ (3.58)$ (3.06)$ (3.06)$ (3.06)$ (2.70)$ (2.70)$ (3.27)$ (2.26)$ (2.89)$ (3.16)$
Expected Case 2020-2021 Apr (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.60)$ (2.76)$ (3.54)$ (2.76)$ (2.76)$ (2.76)$ (2.41)$ (2.41)$ (3.23)$ (2.05)$ (2.69)$ (2.92)$ Expected Case 2020-2021 May (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (2.61)$ (2.75)$ (3.55)$ (2.75)$ (2.75)$ (2.75)$ (2.40)$ (2.40)$ (3.24)$ (2.04)$ (2.68)$ (2.91)$ Expected Case 2020-2021 Jun (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.61)$ (2.78)$ (3.56)$ (2.78)$ (2.78)$ (2.78)$ (2.43)$ (2.43)$ (3.25)$ (2.07)$ (2.71)$ (2.94)$
Expected Case 2020-2021 Jul (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (2.62)$ (2.87)$ (3.57)$ (2.87)$ (2.87)$ (2.87)$ (2.52)$ (2.52)$ (3.26)$ (2.13)$ (2.77)$ (3.01)$
Expected Case 2020-2021 Aug (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.63)$ (2.89)$ (3.58)$ (2.89)$ (2.89)$ (2.89)$ (2.54)$ (2.54)$ (3.27)$ (2.15)$ (2.78)$ (3.03)$ Expected Case 2020-2021 Sep (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.64)$ (2.81)$ (3.59)$ (2.81)$ (2.81)$ (2.81)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (3.28)$ (2.09)$ (2.73)$ (2.96)$ Expected Case 2020-2021 Oct (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.73)$ (2.86)$ (3.68)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.51)$ (2.51)$ (3.37)$ (2.16)$ (2.80)$ (3.03)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Nov (2.22)$ (2.17)$ (2.68)$ (3.22)$ (3.63)$ (3.22)$ (3.22)$ (3.22)$ (2.85)$ (2.81)$ (3.31)$ (2.35)$ (2.99)$ (3.30)$ Expected Case 2021-2022 Dec (2.72)$ (2.31)$ (2.72)$ (3.79)$ (3.90)$ (3.79)$ (3.79)$ (3.79)$ (3.36)$ (2.95)$ (3.36)$ (2.58)$ (3.22)$ (3.81)$ Expected Case 2021-2022 Jan (2.73)$ (2.43)$ (2.73)$ (3.49)$ (3.83)$ (3.49)$ (3.49)$ (3.49)$ (3.47)$ (3.17)$ (3.47)$ (2.63)$ (3.37)$ (3.56)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Feb (2.68)$ (2.45)$ (2.74)$ (3.52)$ (3.86)$ (3.52)$ (3.52)$ (3.52)$ (3.42)$ (3.20)$ (3.48)$ (2.62)$ (3.37)$ (3.59)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Mar (2.37)$ (2.37)$ (2.69)$ (3.44)$ (3.70)$ (3.44)$ (3.44)$ (3.44)$ (3.12)$ (3.12)$ (3.43)$ (2.48)$ (3.22)$ (3.49)$ Expected Case 2021-2022 Apr (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (2.63)$ (3.11)$ (3.64)$ (3.11)$ (3.11)$ (3.11)$ (2.79)$ (2.79)$ (3.37)$ (2.24)$ (2.99)$ (3.22)$ Expected Case 2021-2022 May (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.64)$ (3.12)$ (3.65)$ (3.12)$ (3.12)$ (3.12)$ (2.80)$ (2.80)$ (3.38)$ (2.25)$ (2.99)$ (3.22)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Jun (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (2.65)$ (3.11)$ (3.66)$ (3.11)$ (3.11)$ (3.11)$ (2.79)$ (2.79)$ (3.39)$ (2.25)$ (2.99)$ (3.22)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Jul (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.66)$ (3.17)$ (3.67)$ (3.17)$ (3.17)$ (3.17)$ (2.85)$ (2.85)$ (3.40)$ (2.29)$ (3.03)$ (3.27)$ Expected Case 2021-2022 Aug (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (2.66)$ (3.19)$ (3.68)$ (3.19)$ (3.19)$ (3.19)$ (2.87)$ (2.87)$ (3.41)$ (2.31)$ (3.05)$ (3.29)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Sep (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.67)$ (3.21)$ (3.69)$ (3.21)$ (3.21)$ (3.21)$ (2.89)$ (2.89)$ (3.42)$ (2.32)$ (3.07)$ (3.30)$
Expected Case 2021-2022 Oct (2.16)$ (2.16)$ (2.84)$ (3.23)$ (3.86)$ (3.23)$ (3.23)$ (3.23)$ (2.91)$ (2.91)$ (3.59)$ (2.39)$ (3.13)$ (3.35)$ Expected Case 2022-2023 Nov (2.37)$ (2.32)$ (2.84)$ (3.44)$ (3.86)$ (3.44)$ (3.44)$ (3.44)$ (3.11)$ (3.06)$ (3.58)$ (2.51)$ (3.25)$ (3.52)$ Expected Case 2022-2023 Dec (2.89)$ (2.49)$ (2.89)$ (4.04)$ (4.11)$ (4.04)$ (4.04)$ (4.04)$ (3.63)$ (3.23)$ (3.63)$ (2.75)$ (3.50)$ (4.05)$
Expected Case 2022-2023 Jan (2.89)$ (2.57)$ (2.89)$ (3.71)$ (4.06)$ (3.71)$ (3.71)$ (3.71)$ (3.74)$ (3.42)$ (3.74)$ (2.78)$ (3.63)$ (3.78)$
Expected Case 2022-2023 Feb (2.80)$ (2.53)$ (2.87)$ (3.67)$ (4.07)$ (3.67)$ (3.67)$ (3.67)$ (3.65)$ (3.38)$ (3.72)$ (2.74)$ (3.58)$ (3.75)$ Expected Case 2022-2023 Mar (2.48)$ (2.48)$ (2.79)$ (3.62)$ (3.87)$ (3.62)$ (3.62)$ (3.62)$ (3.33)$ (3.33)$ (3.64)$ (2.58)$ (3.43)$ (3.67)$ Expected Case 2022-2023 Apr (2.16)$ (2.16)$ (2.80)$ (3.29)$ (3.88)$ (3.29)$ (3.29)$ (3.29)$ (3.01)$ (3.01)$ (3.64)$ (2.37)$ (3.22)$ (3.41)$
Expected Case 2022-2023 May (2.22)$ (2.22)$ (2.80)$ (3.35)$ (3.89)$ (3.35)$ (3.35)$ (3.35)$ (3.07)$ (3.07)$ (3.65)$ (2.42)$ (3.26)$ (3.46)$
Expected Case 2022-2023 Jun (2.25)$ (2.25)$ (2.81)$ (3.38)$ (3.90)$ (3.38)$ (3.38)$ (3.38)$ (3.10)$ (3.10)$ (3.66)$ (2.44)$ (3.29)$ (3.49)$ Expected Case 2022-2023 Jul (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.82)$ (3.40)$ (3.91)$ (3.40)$ (3.40)$ (3.40)$ (3.12)$ (3.12)$ (3.67)$ (2.45)$ (3.30)$ (3.50)$
Expected Case 2022-2023 Aug (2.34)$ (2.34)$ (2.83)$ (3.47)$ (3.92)$ (3.47)$ (3.47)$ (3.47)$ (3.18)$ (3.18)$ (3.68)$ (2.50)$ (3.35)$ (3.56)$
Expected Case 2022-2023 Sep (2.32)$ (2.32)$ (2.84)$ (3.46)$ (3.93)$ (3.46)$ (3.46)$ (3.46)$ (3.17)$ (3.17)$ (3.69)$ (2.50)$ (3.34)$ (3.55)$ Expected Case 2022-2023 Oct (2.33)$ (2.33)$ (2.99)$ (3.46)$ (4.08)$ (3.46)$ (3.46)$ (3.46)$ (3.18)$ (3.18)$ (3.84)$ (2.55)$ (3.40)$ (3.59)$ Expected Case 2023-2024 Nov (2.66)$ (2.62)$ (3.30)$ (3.82)$ (4.38)$ (3.82)$ (3.82)$ (3.82)$ (3.51)$ (3.47)$ (4.15)$ (2.86)$ (3.71)$ (3.93)$
Expected Case 2023-2024 Dec (3.27)$ (2.81)$ (3.32)$ (4.49)$ (4.54)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.49)$ (4.12)$ (3.66)$ (4.17)$ (3.13)$ (3.98)$ (4.50)$
Expected Case 2023-2024 Jan (3.35)$ (2.91)$ (3.35)$ (4.13)$ (4.57)$ (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (4.31)$ (3.87)$ (4.31)$ (3.21)$ (4.16)$ (4.22)$ Expected Case 2023-2024 Feb (3.24)$ (2.91)$ (3.36)$ (4.13)$ (4.60)$ (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (4.19)$ (3.86)$ (4.31)$ (3.17)$ (4.12)$ (4.22)$
Expected Case 2023-2024 Mar (2.87)$ (2.87)$ (3.34)$ (4.09)$ (4.50)$ (4.09)$ (4.09)$ (4.09)$ (3.82)$ (3.82)$ (4.29)$ (3.02)$ (3.98)$ (4.17)$
Expected Case 2023-2024 Apr (2.66)$ (2.66)$ (3.34)$ (3.87)$ (4.50)$ (3.87)$ (3.87)$ (3.87)$ (3.61)$ (3.61)$ (4.30)$ (2.89)$ (3.84)$ (4.00)$ Expected Case 2023-2024 May (2.65)$ (2.65)$ (3.35)$ (3.86)$ (4.51)$ (3.86)$ (3.86)$ (3.86)$ (3.60)$ (3.60)$ (4.31)$ (2.88)$ (3.84)$ (3.99)$ Expected Case 2023-2024 Jun (2.62)$ (2.62)$ (3.36)$ (3.84)$ (4.52)$ (3.84)$ (3.84)$ (3.84)$ (3.58)$ (3.58)$ (4.32)$ (2.87)$ (3.82)$ (3.97)$
Expected Case 2023-2024 Jul (2.76)$ (2.76)$ (3.37)$ (3.97)$ (4.53)$ (3.97)$ (3.97)$ (3.97)$ (3.71)$ (3.71)$ (4.33)$ (2.96)$ (3.92)$ (4.09)$
Expected Case 2023-2024 Aug (2.87)$ (2.87)$ (3.38)$ (4.09)$ (4.54)$ (4.09)$ (4.09)$ (4.09)$ (3.83)$ (3.83)$ (4.34)$ (3.04)$ (4.00)$ (4.18)$ Expected Case 2023-2024 Sep (2.85)$ (2.85)$ (3.39)$ (4.07)$ (4.55)$ (4.07)$ (4.07)$ (4.07)$ (3.80)$ (3.80)$ (4.35)$ (3.03)$ (3.98)$ (4.16)$ Expected Case 2023-2024 Oct (2.89)$ (2.89)$ (3.59)$ (4.11)$ (4.75)$ (4.11)$ (4.11)$ (4.11)$ (3.85)$ (3.85)$ (4.54)$ (3.13)$ (4.08)$ (4.24)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Nov (3.05)$ (3.00)$ (3.62)$ (4.28)$ (4.77)$ (4.28)$ (4.28)$ (4.28)$ (4.00)$ (3.96)$ (4.57)$ (3.22)$ (4.18)$ (4.38)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Dec (3.56)$ (3.09)$ (3.63)$ (4.86)$ (4.91)$ (4.86)$ (4.86)$ (4.86)$ (4.51)$ (4.05)$ (4.59)$ (3.43)$ (4.38)$ (4.87)$ Expected Case 2024-2025 Jan (3.59)$ (3.15)$ (3.63)$ (4.46)$ (4.93)$ (4.46)$ (4.46)$ (4.46)$ (4.65)$ (4.22)$ (4.70)$ (3.46)$ (4.52)$ (4.55)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Feb (3.53)$ (3.16)$ (3.67)$ (4.47)$ (4.99)$ (4.47)$ (4.47)$ (4.47)$ (4.59)$ (4.22)$ (4.73)$ (3.45)$ (4.52)$ (4.57)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Mar (3.01)$ (3.01)$ (3.65)$ (4.31)$ (4.89)$ (4.31)$ (4.31)$ (4.31)$ (4.07)$ (4.07)$ (4.71)$ (3.22)$ (4.29)$ (4.43)$ Expected Case 2024-2025 Apr (2.83)$ (2.83)$ (3.66)$ (4.13)$ (4.90)$ (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (4.13)$ (3.89)$ (3.89)$ (4.72)$ (3.11)$ (4.17)$ (4.28)$ Expected Case 2024-2025 May (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (3.67)$ (4.16)$ (4.91)$ (4.16)$ (4.16)$ (4.16)$ (3.92)$ (3.92)$ (4.73)$ (3.13)$ (4.19)$ (4.31)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Jun (2.95)$ (2.95)$ (3.68)$ (4.25)$ (4.92)$ (4.25)$ (4.25)$ (4.25)$ (4.01)$ (4.01)$ (4.74)$ (3.19)$ (4.25)$ (4.38)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Jul (3.02)$ (3.02)$ (3.69)$ (4.32)$ (4.93)$ (4.32)$ (4.32)$ (4.32)$ (4.08)$ (4.08)$ (4.75)$ (3.24)$ (4.30)$ (4.44)$ Expected Case 2024-2025 Aug (3.05)$ (3.05)$ (3.70)$ (4.35)$ (4.94)$ (4.35)$ (4.35)$ (4.35)$ (4.11)$ (4.11)$ (4.76)$ (3.27)$ (4.33)$ (4.47)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Sep (3.00)$ (3.00)$ (3.71)$ (4.30)$ (4.95)$ (4.30)$ (4.30)$ (4.30)$ (4.06)$ (4.06)$ (4.77)$ (3.23)$ (4.29)$ (4.43)$
Expected Case 2024-2025 Oct (3.00)$ (3.00)$ (3.79)$ (4.30)$ (5.03)$ (4.30)$ (4.30)$ (4.30)$ (4.06)$ (4.06)$ (4.85)$ (3.26)$ (4.32)$ (4.45)$ Expected Case 2025-2026 Nov (3.14)$ (3.06)$ (3.73)$ (4.42)$ (4.97)$ (4.42)$ (4.42)$ (4.42)$ (4.21)$ (4.12)$ (4.79)$ (3.31)$ (4.37)$ (4.53)$
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 233
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: EXPECTED MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR AnnualExpected Case 2025-2026 Dec (3.63)$ (3.16)$ (3.75)$ (5.07)$ (5.08)$ (5.07)$ (5.07)$ (5.07)$ (4.69)$ (4.22)$ (4.81)$ (3.51)$ (4.57)$ (5.07)$
Expected Case 2025-2026 Jan (3.70)$ (3.27)$ (3.75)$ (4.66)$ (5.12)$ (4.66)$ (4.66)$ (4.66)$ (4.87)$ (4.43)$ (4.92)$ (3.57)$ (4.74)$ (4.75)$
Expected Case 2025-2026 Feb (3.61)$ (3.24)$ (3.78)$ (4.64)$ (5.18)$ (4.64)$ (4.64)$ (4.64)$ (4.78)$ (4.41)$ (4.95)$ (3.55)$ (4.71)$ (4.75)$ Expected Case 2025-2026 Mar (3.09)$ (3.09)$ (3.77)$ (4.48)$ (5.09)$ (4.48)$ (4.48)$ (4.48)$ (4.26)$ (4.26)$ (4.93)$ (3.32)$ (4.48)$ (4.60)$
Expected Case 2025-2026 Apr (2.93)$ (2.93)$ (3.77)$ (4.32)$ (5.10)$ (4.32)$ (4.32)$ (4.32)$ (4.10)$ (4.10)$ (4.94)$ (3.21)$ (4.38)$ (4.47)$
Expected Case 2025-2026 May (2.98)$ (2.98)$ (3.78)$ (4.37)$ (5.11)$ (4.37)$ (4.37)$ (4.37)$ (4.15)$ (4.15)$ (4.95)$ (3.25)$ (4.42)$ (4.52)$ Expected Case 2025-2026 Jun (3.07)$ (3.07)$ (3.79)$ (4.46)$ (5.09)$ (4.46)$ (4.46)$ (4.46)$ (4.24)$ (4.24)$ (4.96)$ (3.31)$ (4.48)$ (4.59)$ Expected Case 2025-2026 Jul (3.18)$ (3.18)$ (3.80)$ (4.57)$ (5.13)$ (4.57)$ (4.57)$ (4.57)$ (4.35)$ (4.35)$ (4.97)$ (3.39)$ (4.56)$ (4.69)$
Expected Case 2025-2026 Aug (3.21)$ (3.21)$ (3.81)$ (4.60)$ (5.14)$ (4.60)$ (4.60)$ (4.60)$ (4.38)$ (4.38)$ (4.98)$ (3.41)$ (4.58)$ (4.71)$
Expected Case 2025-2026 Sep (3.13)$ (3.13)$ (3.82)$ (4.52)$ (5.15)$ (4.52)$ (4.52)$ (4.52)$ (4.30)$ (4.30)$ (4.99)$ (3.36)$ (4.53)$ (4.65)$ Expected Case 2025-2026 Oct (3.18)$ (3.18)$ (3.83)$ (4.57)$ (5.16)$ (4.57)$ (4.57)$ (4.57)$ (4.35)$ (4.35)$ (5.00)$ (3.40)$ (4.57)$ (4.69)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Nov (3.32)$ (3.23)$ (3.85)$ (4.68)$ (5.17)$ (4.68)$ (4.68)$ (4.68)$ (4.49)$ (4.40)$ (5.01)$ (3.47)$ (4.63)$ (4.78)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Dec (3.83)$ (3.38)$ (3.87)$ (5.27)$ (5.28)$ (5.27)$ (5.27)$ (5.27)$ (5.00)$ (4.55)$ (5.03)$ (3.69)$ (4.86)$ (5.27)$ Expected Case 2026-2027 Jan (3.91)$ (3.48)$ (3.91)$ (4.97)$ (5.37)$ (4.97)$ (4.97)$ (4.97)$ (5.18)$ (4.75)$ (5.18)$ (3.77)$ (5.04)$ (5.05)$ Expected Case 2026-2027 Feb (3.80)$ (3.48)$ (3.90)$ (4.97)$ (5.38)$ (4.97)$ (4.97)$ (4.97)$ (5.07)$ (4.75)$ (5.17)$ (3.73)$ (5.00)$ (5.05)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Mar (3.38)$ (3.38)$ (3.88)$ (4.87)$ (5.30)$ (4.87)$ (4.87)$ (4.87)$ (4.65)$ (4.65)$ (5.16)$ (3.55)$ (4.82)$ (4.95)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Apr (3.25)$ (3.25)$ (3.89)$ (4.74)$ (5.31)$ (4.74)$ (4.74)$ (4.74)$ (4.53)$ (4.53)$ (5.17)$ (3.47)$ (4.74)$ (4.85)$ Expected Case 2026-2027 May (3.23)$ (3.23)$ (3.90)$ (4.71)$ (5.32)$ (4.71)$ (4.71)$ (4.71)$ (4.50)$ (4.50)$ (5.18)$ (3.45)$ (4.73)$ (4.83)$ Expected Case 2026-2027 Jun (3.34)$ (3.34)$ (3.91)$ (4.83)$ (5.33)$ (4.83)$ (4.83)$ (4.83)$ (4.61)$ (4.61)$ (5.19)$ (3.53)$ (4.80)$ (4.93)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Jul (3.46)$ (3.46)$ (3.92)$ (4.94)$ (5.34)$ (4.94)$ (4.94)$ (4.94)$ (4.73)$ (4.73)$ (5.20)$ (3.61)$ (4.88)$ (5.02)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Aug (3.49)$ (3.49)$ (3.93)$ (4.98)$ (5.35)$ (4.98)$ (4.98)$ (4.98)$ (4.76)$ (4.76)$ (5.21)$ (3.64)$ (4.91)$ (5.05)$ Expected Case 2026-2027 Sep (3.43)$ (3.43)$ (3.94)$ (4.91)$ (5.36)$ (4.91)$ (4.91)$ (4.91)$ (4.70)$ (4.70)$ (5.22)$ (3.60)$ (4.87)$ (5.00)$
Expected Case 2026-2027 Oct (3.45)$ (3.45)$ (4.08)$ (4.94)$ (5.50)$ (4.94)$ (4.94)$ (4.94)$ (4.72)$ (4.72)$ (5.35)$ (3.66)$ (4.93)$ (5.05)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 Nov (3.64)$ (3.55)$ (4.19)$ (5.10)$ (5.61)$ (5.10)$ (5.10)$ (5.10)$ (4.91)$ (4.82)$ (5.47)$ (3.79)$ (5.07)$ (5.20)$ Expected Case 2027-2028 Dec (4.21)$ (3.78)$ (4.21)$ (5.71)$ (5.69)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.49)$ (5.05)$ (5.49)$ (4.07)$ (5.34)$ (5.70)$ Expected Case 2027-2028 Jan (4.27)$ (3.84)$ (4.27)$ (5.44)$ (5.88)$ (5.44)$ (5.44)$ (5.44)$ (5.65)$ (5.22)$ (5.65)$ (4.13)$ (5.51)$ (5.53)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 Feb (4.08)$ (3.74)$ (4.25)$ (5.34)$ (5.81)$ (5.34)$ (5.34)$ (5.34)$ (5.46)$ (5.12)$ (5.63)$ (4.02)$ (5.40)$ (5.43)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 Mar (3.66)$ (3.66)$ (4.23)$ (5.25)$ (5.75)$ (5.25)$ (5.25)$ (5.25)$ (5.04)$ (5.04)$ (5.61)$ (3.85)$ (5.23)$ (5.35)$ Expected Case 2027-2028 Apr (3.57)$ (3.57)$ (4.24)$ (5.16)$ (5.76)$ (5.16)$ (5.16)$ (5.16)$ (4.95)$ (4.95)$ (5.62)$ (3.79)$ (5.17)$ (5.28)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 May (3.55)$ (3.55)$ (4.25)$ (5.14)$ (5.77)$ (5.14)$ (5.14)$ (5.14)$ (4.93)$ (4.93)$ (5.63)$ (3.79)$ (5.17)$ (5.27)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 Jun (3.70)$ (3.70)$ (4.26)$ (5.29)$ (5.78)$ (5.29)$ (5.29)$ (5.29)$ (5.08)$ (5.08)$ (5.64)$ (3.89)$ (5.27)$ (5.39)$ Expected Case 2027-2028 Jul (3.79)$ (3.79)$ (4.27)$ (5.38)$ (5.79)$ (5.38)$ (5.38)$ (5.38)$ (5.17)$ (5.17)$ (5.65)$ (3.95)$ (5.33)$ (5.46)$ Expected Case 2027-2028 Aug (3.84)$ (3.84)$ (4.28)$ (5.44)$ (5.80)$ (5.44)$ (5.44)$ (5.44)$ (5.22)$ (5.22)$ (5.66)$ (3.99)$ (5.37)$ (5.51)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 Sep (3.71)$ (3.71)$ (4.29)$ (5.30)$ (5.81)$ (5.30)$ (5.30)$ (5.30)$ (5.09)$ (5.09)$ (5.67)$ (3.91)$ (5.29)$ (5.41)$
Expected Case 2027-2028 Oct (3.75)$ (3.75)$ (4.30)$ (5.34)$ (5.78)$ (5.34)$ (5.34)$ (5.34)$ (5.13)$ (5.13)$ (5.68)$ (3.93)$ (5.31)$ (5.43)$ Expected Case 2028-2029 Nov (3.93)$ (3.85)$ (4.42)$ (5.54)$ (5.94)$ (5.54)$ (5.54)$ (5.54)$ (5.31)$ (5.23)$ (5.80)$ (4.07)$ (5.45)$ (5.62)$ Expected Case 2028-2029 Dec (4.44)$ (4.01)$ (4.45)$ (6.03)$ (6.02)$ (6.03)$ (6.03)$ (6.03)$ (5.82)$ (5.39)$ (5.83)$ (4.30)$ (5.68)$ (6.03)$
Expected Case 2028-2029 Jan (4.49)$ (4.07)$ (4.49)$ (5.85)$ (6.20)$ (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (5.98)$ (5.55)$ (5.98)$ (4.35)$ (5.84)$ (5.92)$
Expected Case 2028-2029 Feb (4.40)$ (4.14)$ (4.48)$ (5.85)$ (6.13)$ (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (5.89)$ (5.63)$ (5.96)$ (4.34)$ (5.83)$ (5.91)$ Expected Case 2028-2029 Mar (4.01)$ (4.01)$ (4.47)$ (5.71)$ (6.09)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.50)$ (5.50)$ (5.95)$ (4.16)$ (5.65)$ (5.79)$
Expected Case 2028-2029 Apr (3.89)$ (3.89)$ (4.47)$ (5.59)$ (6.10)$ (5.59)$ (5.59)$ (5.59)$ (5.38)$ (5.38)$ (5.96)$ (4.09)$ (5.57)$ (5.70)$
Expected Case 2028-2029 May (3.91)$ (3.91)$ (4.48)$ (5.61)$ (6.11)$ (5.61)$ (5.61)$ (5.61)$ (5.39)$ (5.39)$ (5.97)$ (4.10)$ (5.58)$ (5.71)$ Expected Case 2028-2029 Jun (3.93)$ (3.93)$ (4.49)$ (5.63)$ (6.12)$ (5.63)$ (5.63)$ (5.63)$ (5.42)$ (5.42)$ (5.98)$ (4.12)$ (5.61)$ (5.73)$ Expected Case 2028-2029 Jul (4.06)$ (4.06)$ (4.50)$ (5.76)$ (6.13)$ (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.54)$ (5.54)$ (5.99)$ (4.21)$ (5.69)$ (5.83)$
Expected Case 2028-2029 Aug (4.10)$ (4.10)$ (4.51)$ (5.80)$ (6.14)$ (5.80)$ (5.80)$ (5.80)$ (5.58)$ (5.58)$ (6.00)$ (4.24)$ (5.72)$ (5.87)$
Expected Case 2028-2029 Sep (4.00)$ (4.00)$ (4.52)$ (5.71)$ (6.15)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (5.49)$ (5.49)$ (6.01)$ (4.18)$ (5.66)$ (5.79)$ Expected Case 2028-2029 Oct (4.10)$ (4.10)$ (4.53)$ (5.81)$ (6.13)$ (5.81)$ (5.81)$ (5.81)$ (5.59)$ (5.59)$ (6.02)$ (4.25)$ (5.73)$ (5.87)$ Expected Case 2029-2030 Nov (4.28)$ (4.20)$ (4.75)$ (6.00)$ (6.37)$ (6.00)$ (6.00)$ (6.00)$ (5.77)$ (5.69)$ (6.23)$ (4.41)$ (5.90)$ (6.07)$
Expected Case 2029-2030 Dec (4.82)$ (4.42)$ (4.82)$ (6.55)$ (6.52)$ (6.55)$ (6.55)$ (6.55)$ (6.31)$ (5.91)$ (6.31)$ (4.69)$ (6.17)$ (6.55)$ Expected Case 2029-2030 Jan (4.83)$ (4.44)$ (4.83)$ (6.32)$ (6.62)$ (6.32)$ (6.32)$ (6.32)$ (6.42)$ (6.03)$ (6.42)$ (4.70)$ (6.29)$ (6.38)$ Expected Case 2029-2030 Feb (4.72)$ (4.46)$ (4.79)$ (6.29)$ (6.55)$ (6.29)$ (6.29)$ (6.29)$ (6.31)$ (6.05)$ (6.38)$ (4.66)$ (6.25)$ (6.34)$
Expected Case 2029-2030 Mar (4.26)$ (4.26)$ (4.78)$ (6.08)$ (6.52)$ (6.08)$ (6.08)$ (6.08)$ (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (6.37)$ (4.43)$ (6.03)$ (6.17)$
Expected Case 2029-2030 Apr (4.15)$ (4.15)$ (4.75)$ (5.97)$ (6.48)$ (5.97)$ (5.97)$ (5.97)$ (5.74)$ (5.74)$ (6.34)$ (4.35)$ (5.94)$ (6.07)$ Expected Case 2029-2030 May (4.19)$ (4.19)$ (4.76)$ (6.01)$ (6.49)$ (6.01)$ (6.01)$ (6.01)$ (5.78)$ (5.78)$ (6.35)$ (4.38)$ (5.97)$ (6.11)$ Expected Case 2029-2030 Jun (4.24)$ (4.24)$ (4.77)$ (6.06)$ (6.50)$ (6.06)$ (6.06)$ (6.06)$ (5.83)$ (5.83)$ (6.36)$ (4.42)$ (6.01)$ (6.15)$
Expected Case 2029-2030 Jul (4.37)$ (4.37)$ (4.78)$ (6.19)$ (6.51)$ (6.19)$ (6.19)$ (6.19)$ (5.96)$ (5.96)$ (6.37)$ (4.51)$ (6.10)$ (6.26)$
Expected Case 2029-2030 Aug (4.43)$ (4.43)$ (4.79)$ (6.26)$ (6.48)$ (6.26)$ (6.26)$ (6.26)$ (6.02)$ (6.02)$ (6.38)$ (4.55)$ (6.14)$ (6.30)$ Expected Case 2029-2030 Sep (4.35)$ (4.35)$ (4.80)$ (6.18)$ (6.53)$ (6.18)$ (6.18)$ (6.18)$ (5.94)$ (5.94)$ (6.39)$ (4.50)$ (6.09)$ (6.25)$
Expected Case 2029-2030 Oct (4.40)$ (4.40)$ (4.88)$ (6.22)$ (6.61)$ (6.22)$ (6.22)$ (6.22)$ (5.99)$ (5.99)$ (6.47)$ (4.56)$ (6.15)$ (6.30)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Nov (4.47)$ (4.38)$ (4.94)$ (6.31)$ (6.69)$ (6.31)$ (6.31)$ (6.31)$ (6.06)$ (5.98)$ (6.53)$ (4.60)$ (6.19)$ (6.39)$ Expected Case 2030-2031 Dec (5.01)$ (4.60)$ (5.01)$ (6.89)$ (6.86)$ (6.89)$ (6.89)$ (6.89)$ (6.60)$ (6.19)$ (6.60)$ (4.87)$ (6.47)$ (6.88)$ Expected Case 2030-2031 Jan (5.02)$ (4.69)$ (5.02)$ (6.64)$ (6.96)$ (6.64)$ (6.64)$ (6.64)$ (6.61)$ (6.28)$ (6.61)$ (4.91)$ (6.50)$ (6.70)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Feb (4.92)$ (4.70)$ (4.99)$ (6.65)$ (6.88)$ (6.65)$ (6.65)$ (6.65)$ (6.52)$ (6.29)$ (6.58)$ (4.87)$ (6.46)$ (6.69)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Mar (4.51)$ (4.51)$ (4.96)$ (6.46)$ (6.82)$ (6.46)$ (6.46)$ (6.46)$ (6.10)$ (6.10)$ (6.56)$ (4.66)$ (6.25)$ (6.53)$ Expected Case 2030-2031 Apr (4.31)$ (4.31)$ (4.96)$ (6.25)$ (6.81)$ (6.25)$ (6.25)$ (6.25)$ (5.90)$ (5.90)$ (6.55)$ (4.52)$ (6.12)$ (6.37)$ Expected Case 2030-2031 May (4.39)$ (4.39)$ (4.97)$ (6.33)$ (6.83)$ (6.33)$ (6.33)$ (6.33)$ (5.98)$ (5.98)$ (6.56)$ (4.58)$ (6.17)$ (6.43)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Jun (4.44)$ (4.44)$ (4.98)$ (6.38)$ (6.84)$ (6.38)$ (6.38)$ (6.38)$ (6.03)$ (6.03)$ (6.57)$ (4.62)$ (6.21)$ (6.47)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Jul (4.62)$ (4.62)$ (4.99)$ (6.57)$ (6.85)$ (6.57)$ (6.57)$ (6.57)$ (6.21)$ (6.21)$ (6.58)$ (4.74)$ (6.33)$ (6.62)$ Expected Case 2030-2031 Aug (4.67)$ (4.67)$ (5.00)$ (6.63)$ (6.86)$ (6.63)$ (6.63)$ (6.63)$ (6.27)$ (6.27)$ (6.59)$ (4.78)$ (6.37)$ (6.67)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Sep (4.59)$ (4.59)$ (5.01)$ (6.54)$ (6.87)$ (6.54)$ (6.54)$ (6.54)$ (6.18)$ (6.18)$ (6.60)$ (4.73)$ (6.32)$ (6.60)$
Expected Case 2030-2031 Oct (4.61)$ (4.61)$ (5.02)$ (6.56)$ (6.87)$ (6.56)$ (6.56)$ (6.56)$ (6.20)$ (6.20)$ (6.61)$ (4.75)$ (6.34)$ (6.62)$ Expected Case 2031-2032 Nov (4.69)$ (4.61)$ (5.12)$ (6.66)$ (6.99)$ (6.66)$ (6.66)$ (6.66)$ (6.28)$ (6.20)$ (6.72)$ (4.81)$ (6.40)$ (6.72)$ Expected Case 2031-2032 Dec (5.16)$ (4.74)$ (5.16)$ (7.18)$ (7.14)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (6.75)$ (6.33)$ (6.75)$ (5.02)$ (6.61)$ (7.17)$
Expected Case 2031-2032 Jan (5.21)$ (4.85)$ (5.21)$ (6.94)$ (7.27)$ (6.94)$ (6.94)$ (6.94)$ (6.80)$ (6.44)$ (6.80)$ (5.09)$ (6.68)$ (7.00)$
Expected Case 2031-2032 Feb (5.14)$ (4.78)$ (5.18)$ (6.86)$ (7.21)$ (6.86)$ (6.86)$ (6.86)$ (6.73)$ (6.37)$ (6.77)$ (5.03)$ (6.62)$ (6.93)$ Expected Case 2031-2032 Mar (4.63)$ (4.63)$ (5.17)$ (6.71)$ (7.15)$ (6.71)$ (6.71)$ (6.71)$ (6.22)$ (6.22)$ (6.76)$ (4.81)$ (6.40)$ (6.80)$
Expected Case 2031-2032 Apr (4.44)$ (4.44)$ (5.18)$ (6.51)$ (7.16)$ (6.51)$ (6.51)$ (6.51)$ (6.03)$ (6.03)$ (6.77)$ (4.68)$ (6.27)$ (6.64)$
Expected Case 2031-2032 May (4.48)$ (4.48)$ (5.19)$ (6.56)$ (7.17)$ (6.56)$ (6.56)$ (6.56)$ (6.07)$ (6.07)$ (6.78)$ (4.72)$ (6.31)$ (6.68)$ Expected Case 2031-2032 Jun (4.54)$ (4.54)$ (5.20)$ (6.62)$ (7.19)$ (6.62)$ (6.62)$ (6.62)$ (6.13)$ (6.13)$ (6.79)$ (4.76)$ (6.35)$ (6.73)$ Expected Case 2031-2032 Jul (4.70)$ (4.70)$ (5.21)$ (6.78)$ (7.20)$ (6.78)$ (6.78)$ (6.78)$ (6.29)$ (6.29)$ (6.80)$ (4.87)$ (6.46)$ (6.86)$
Expected Case 2031-2032 Aug (4.77)$ (4.77)$ (5.22)$ (6.85)$ (7.21)$ (6.85)$ (6.85)$ (6.85)$ (6.36)$ (6.36)$ (6.81)$ (4.92)$ (6.51)$ (6.92)$
Expected Case 2031-2032 Sep (4.70)$ (4.70)$ (5.23)$ (6.78)$ (7.22)$ (6.78)$ (6.78)$ (6.78)$ (6.29)$ (6.29)$ (6.82)$ (4.87)$ (6.47)$ (6.87)$ Expected Case 2031-2032 Oct (4.79)$ (4.79)$ (5.24)$ (6.87)$ (7.23)$ (6.87)$ (6.87)$ (6.87)$ (6.38)$ (6.38)$ (6.83)$ (4.94)$ (6.53)$ (6.94)$ Expected Case 2032-2033 Nov (4.84)$ (4.76)$ (5.39)$ (6.96)$ (7.39)$ (6.96)$ (6.96)$ (6.96)$ (6.44)$ (6.35)$ (6.98)$ (5.00)$ (6.59)$ (7.05)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Dec (5.43)$ (5.02)$ (5.44)$ (7.59)$ (7.55)$ (7.59)$ (7.59)$ (7.59)$ (7.03)$ (6.61)$ (7.03)$ (5.30)$ (6.89)$ (7.58)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Jan (5.48)$ (5.09)$ (5.48)$ (7.32)$ (7.65)$ (7.32)$ (7.32)$ (7.32)$ (7.07)$ (6.68)$ (7.07)$ (5.35)$ (6.94)$ (7.39)$ Expected Case 2032-2033 Feb (5.36)$ (5.09)$ (5.44)$ (7.32)$ (7.59)$ (7.32)$ (7.32)$ (7.32)$ (6.95)$ (6.69)$ (7.03)$ (5.30)$ (6.89)$ (7.38)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Mar (4.91)$ (4.91)$ (5.43)$ (7.14)$ (7.56)$ (7.14)$ (7.14)$ (7.14)$ (6.50)$ (6.50)$ (7.02)$ (5.09)$ (6.68)$ (7.22)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Apr (4.72)$ (4.72)$ (5.41)$ (6.94)$ (7.53)$ (6.94)$ (6.94)$ (6.94)$ (6.32)$ (6.32)$ (7.00)$ (4.95)$ (6.54)$ (7.06)$ Expected Case 2032-2033 May (4.74)$ (4.74)$ (5.42)$ (6.96)$ (7.55)$ (6.96)$ (6.96)$ (6.96)$ (6.33)$ (6.33)$ (7.01)$ (4.97)$ (6.56)$ (7.08)$ Expected Case 2032-2033 Jun (4.79)$ (4.79)$ (5.43)$ (7.01)$ (7.56)$ (7.01)$ (7.01)$ (7.01)$ (6.38)$ (6.38)$ (7.02)$ (5.00)$ (6.59)$ (7.12)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Jul (5.02)$ (5.02)$ (5.44)$ (7.25)$ (7.57)$ (7.25)$ (7.25)$ (7.25)$ (6.61)$ (6.61)$ (7.03)$ (5.16)$ (6.75)$ (7.31)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Aug (5.06)$ (5.06)$ (5.45)$ (7.28)$ (7.58)$ (7.28)$ (7.28)$ (7.28)$ (6.65)$ (6.65)$ (7.04)$ (5.19)$ (6.78)$ (7.34)$ Expected Case 2032-2033 Sep (4.96)$ (4.96)$ (5.46)$ (7.18)$ (7.59)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (7.18)$ (6.55)$ (6.55)$ (7.05)$ (5.12)$ (6.72)$ (7.26)$
Expected Case 2032-2033 Oct (4.96)$ (4.96)$ (5.47)$ (7.19)$ (7.59)$ (7.19)$ (7.19)$ (7.19)$ (6.56)$ (6.56)$ (7.06)$ (5.13)$ (6.72)$ (7.27)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 Nov (5.10)$ (5.02)$ (5.59)$ (7.35)$ (7.73)$ (7.35)$ (7.35)$ (7.35)$ (6.69)$ (6.61)$ (7.18)$ (5.24)$ (6.83)$ (7.43)$ Expected Case 2033-2034 Dec (5.65)$ (5.24)$ (5.65)$ (7.95)$ (7.91)$ (7.95)$ (7.95)$ (7.95)$ (7.24)$ (6.83)$ (7.24)$ (5.51)$ (7.10)$ (7.94)$
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 234
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: EXPECTED MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR AnnualExpected Case 2033-2034 Jan (5.68)$ (5.28)$ (5.68)$ (7.66)$ (8.02)$ (7.66)$ (7.66)$ (7.66)$ (7.28)$ (6.88)$ (7.28)$ (5.55)$ (7.14)$ (7.74)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 Feb (5.63)$ (5.31)$ (5.65)$ (7.70)$ (7.97)$ (7.70)$ (7.70)$ (7.70)$ (7.22)$ (6.91)$ (7.24)$ (5.53)$ (7.12)$ (7.75)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 Mar (5.07)$ (5.07)$ (5.64)$ (7.44)$ (7.91)$ (7.44)$ (7.44)$ (7.44)$ (6.66)$ (6.66)$ (7.23)$ (5.26)$ (6.85)$ (7.54)$ Expected Case 2033-2034 Apr (4.88)$ (4.88)$ (5.65)$ (7.25)$ (7.92)$ (7.25)$ (7.25)$ (7.25)$ (6.47)$ (6.47)$ (7.24)$ (5.14)$ (6.73)$ (7.39)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 May (4.89)$ (4.89)$ (5.66)$ (7.27)$ (7.93)$ (7.27)$ (7.27)$ (7.27)$ (6.48)$ (6.48)$ (7.25)$ (5.15)$ (6.74)$ (7.40)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 Jun (4.98)$ (4.98)$ (5.67)$ (7.35)$ (7.95)$ (7.35)$ (7.35)$ (7.35)$ (6.57)$ (6.57)$ (7.26)$ (5.21)$ (6.80)$ (7.47)$ Expected Case 2033-2034 Jul (5.20)$ (5.20)$ (5.68)$ (7.58)$ (7.96)$ (7.58)$ (7.58)$ (7.58)$ (6.80)$ (6.80)$ (7.27)$ (5.36)$ (6.95)$ (7.66)$ Expected Case 2033-2034 Aug (5.22)$ (5.22)$ (5.69)$ (7.60)$ (7.97)$ (7.60)$ (7.60)$ (7.60)$ (6.82)$ (6.82)$ (7.28)$ (5.38)$ (6.97)$ (7.68)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 Sep (5.09)$ (5.09)$ (5.70)$ (7.46)$ (7.98)$ (7.46)$ (7.46)$ (7.46)$ (6.68)$ (6.68)$ (7.29)$ (5.29)$ (6.88)$ (7.57)$
Expected Case 2033-2034 Oct (5.13)$ (5.13)$ (5.81)$ (7.51)$ (8.08)$ (7.51)$ (7.51)$ (7.51)$ (6.73)$ (6.73)$ (7.40)$ (5.36)$ (6.95)$ (7.63)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Nov (5.31)$ (5.23)$ (5.82)$ (7.71)$ (8.11)$ (7.71)$ (7.71)$ (7.71)$ (6.90)$ (6.82)$ (7.42)$ (5.45)$ (7.05)$ (7.79)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Dec (5.81)$ (5.40)$ (5.85)$ (8.27)$ (8.23)$ (8.27)$ (8.27)$ (8.27)$ (7.41)$ (6.99)$ (7.44)$ (5.69)$ (7.28)$ (8.26)$
Expected Case 2034-2035 Jan (5.92)$ (5.53)$ (5.92)$ (8.08)$ (8.43)$ (8.08)$ (8.08)$ (8.08)$ (7.51)$ (7.12)$ (7.51)$ (5.79)$ (7.38)$ (8.15)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Feb (5.86)$ (5.51)$ (5.89)$ (8.05)$ (8.37)$ (8.05)$ (8.05)$ (8.05)$ (7.45)$ (7.10)$ (7.48)$ (5.75)$ (7.34)$ (8.12)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Mar (5.32)$ (5.32)$ (5.87)$ (7.86)$ (8.31)$ (7.86)$ (7.86)$ (7.86)$ (6.92)$ (6.92)$ (7.46)$ (5.51)$ (7.10)$ (7.95)$
Expected Case 2034-2035 Apr (5.15)$ (5.15)$ (5.88)$ (7.68)$ (8.32)$ (7.68)$ (7.68)$ (7.68)$ (6.74)$ (6.74)$ (7.47)$ (5.39)$ (6.98)$ (7.81)$
Expected Case 2034-2035 May (5.09)$ (5.09)$ (5.89)$ (7.62)$ (8.28)$ (7.62)$ (7.62)$ (7.62)$ (6.68)$ (6.68)$ (7.48)$ (5.36)$ (6.95)$ (7.76)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Jun (5.17)$ (5.17)$ (5.90)$ (7.71)$ (8.34)$ (7.71)$ (7.71)$ (7.71)$ (6.76)$ (6.76)$ (7.49)$ (5.42)$ (7.01)$ (7.84)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Jul (5.38)$ (5.38)$ (5.91)$ (7.92)$ (8.35)$ (7.92)$ (7.92)$ (7.92)$ (6.97)$ (6.97)$ (7.51)$ (5.56)$ (7.15)$ (8.00)$
Expected Case 2034-2035 Aug (5.45)$ (5.45)$ (5.93)$ (7.99)$ (8.36)$ (7.99)$ (7.99)$ (7.99)$ (7.04)$ (7.04)$ (7.52)$ (5.61)$ (7.20)$ (8.06)$
Expected Case 2034-2035 Sep (5.31)$ (5.31)$ (5.94)$ (7.85)$ (8.37)$ (7.85)$ (7.85)$ (7.85)$ (6.90)$ (6.90)$ (7.53)$ (5.52)$ (7.11)$ (7.96)$ Expected Case 2034-2035 Oct (5.23)$ (5.23)$ (5.95)$ (7.77)$ (8.38)$ (7.77)$ (7.77)$ (7.77)$ (6.82)$ (6.82)$ (7.54)$ (5.47)$ (7.06)$ (7.89)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Nov (5.20)$ (5.12)$ (6.06)$ (7.82)$ (8.50)$ (7.82)$ (7.82)$ (7.82)$ (6.79)$ (6.71)$ (7.65)$ (5.46)$ (7.05)$ (7.96)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Dec (5.73)$ (5.24)$ (6.09)$ (8.59)$ (8.55)$ (8.59)$ (8.59)$ (8.59)$ (7.32)$ (6.83)$ (7.68)$ (5.69)$ (7.28)$ (8.58)$ Expected Case 2035-2036 Jan (6.01)$ (5.61)$ (6.10)$ (8.67)$ (8.79)$ (8.67)$ (8.67)$ (8.67)$ (7.60)$ (7.21)$ (7.69)$ (5.91)$ (7.50)$ (8.69)$ Expected Case 2035-2036 Feb (6.09)$ (5.69)$ (6.14)$ (8.38)$ (8.77)$ (8.38)$ (8.38)$ (8.38)$ (7.68)$ (7.28)$ (7.73)$ (5.97)$ (7.56)$ (8.46)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Mar (5.50)$ (5.50)$ (6.11)$ (8.19)$ (8.69)$ (8.19)$ (8.19)$ (8.19)$ (7.09)$ (7.09)$ (7.70)$ (5.70)$ (7.30)$ (8.29)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Apr (5.30)$ (5.30)$ (6.12)$ (7.99)$ (8.70)$ (7.99)$ (7.99)$ (7.99)$ (6.89)$ (6.89)$ (7.71)$ (5.57)$ (7.17)$ (8.13)$ Expected Case 2035-2036 May (5.31)$ (5.31)$ (6.13)$ (8.00)$ (8.71)$ (8.00)$ (8.00)$ (8.00)$ (6.90)$ (6.90)$ (7.72)$ (5.59)$ (7.18)$ (8.14)$ Expected Case 2035-2036 Jun (5.47)$ (5.47)$ (6.14)$ (8.16)$ (8.72)$ (8.16)$ (8.16)$ (8.16)$ (7.06)$ (7.06)$ (7.73)$ (5.69)$ (7.29)$ (8.27)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Jul (5.85)$ (5.85)$ (6.15)$ (8.54)$ (8.74)$ (8.54)$ (8.54)$ (8.54)$ (7.44)$ (7.44)$ (7.75)$ (5.95)$ (7.54)$ (8.58)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Aug (6.01)$ (6.01)$ (6.17)$ (8.70)$ (8.75)$ (8.70)$ (8.70)$ (8.70)$ (7.60)$ (7.60)$ (7.76)$ (6.06)$ (7.65)$ (8.71)$ Expected Case 2035-2036 Sep (5.73)$ (5.73)$ (6.18)$ (8.43)$ (8.76)$ (8.43)$ (8.43)$ (8.43)$ (7.32)$ (7.32)$ (7.77)$ (5.88)$ (7.47)$ (8.49)$
Expected Case 2035-2036 Oct (5.71)$ (5.71)$ (6.28)$ (8.40)$ (8.87)$ (8.40)$ (8.40)$ (8.40)$ (7.30)$ (7.30)$ (7.88)$ (5.90)$ (7.49)$ (8.49)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Nov (5.90)$ (5.78)$ (6.38)$ (8.59)$ (8.98)$ (8.59)$ (8.59)$ (8.59)$ (7.49)$ (7.37)$ (7.97)$ (6.02)$ (7.61)$ (8.67)$ Expected Case 2036-2037 Dec (6.47)$ (6.09)$ (6.47)$ (9.32)$ (9.29)$ (9.32)$ (9.32)$ (9.32)$ (8.06)$ (7.68)$ (8.06)$ (6.34)$ (7.94)$ (9.32)$ Expected Case 2036-2037 Jan (6.48)$ (6.17)$ (6.48)$ (9.35)$ (9.45)$ (9.35)$ (9.35)$ (9.35)$ (8.08)$ (7.77)$ (8.08)$ (6.38)$ (7.97)$ (9.37)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Feb (6.51)$ (6.22)$ (6.51)$ (9.08)$ (9.30)$ (9.08)$ (9.08)$ (9.08)$ (8.10)$ (7.81)$ (8.10)$ (6.41)$ (8.01)$ (9.12)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Mar (5.86)$ (5.86)$ (6.54)$ (8.71)$ (9.28)$ (8.71)$ (8.71)$ (8.71)$ (7.45)$ (7.45)$ (8.13)$ (6.09)$ (7.68)$ (8.83)$ Expected Case 2036-2037 Apr (5.48)$ (5.48)$ (5.92)$ (8.33)$ (8.65)$ (8.33)$ (8.33)$ (8.33)$ (7.08)$ (7.08)$ (7.51)$ (5.63)$ (7.22)$ (8.39)$ Expected Case 2036-2037 May (5.49)$ (5.49)$ (5.92)$ (8.34)$ (8.66)$ (8.34)$ (8.34)$ (8.34)$ (7.09)$ (7.09)$ (7.52)$ (5.64)$ (7.23)$ (8.40)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Jun (5.61)$ (5.61)$ (5.94)$ (8.46)$ (8.67)$ (8.46)$ (8.46)$ (8.46)$ (7.21)$ (7.21)$ (7.53)$ (5.72)$ (7.31)$ (8.50)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Jul (5.99)$ (5.99)$ (6.04)$ (8.84)$ (8.77)$ (8.78)$ (8.78)$ (8.78)$ (7.58)$ (7.58)$ (7.63)$ (6.01)$ (7.60)$ (8.79)$ Expected Case 2036-2037 Aug (6.07)$ (6.07)$ (6.13)$ (8.93)$ (8.86)$ (8.86)$ (8.86)$ (8.86)$ (7.67)$ (7.67)$ (7.72)$ (6.09)$ (7.68)$ (8.88)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Sep (5.76)$ (5.76)$ (5.87)$ (8.61)$ (8.61)$ (8.61)$ (8.61)$ (8.61)$ (7.35)$ (7.35)$ (7.46)$ (5.80)$ (7.39)$ (8.61)$
Expected Case 2036-2037 Oct (5.65)$ (5.65)$ (6.37)$ (8.50)$ (9.10)$ (8.50)$ (8.50)$ (8.50)$ (7.24)$ (7.24)$ (7.96)$ (5.89)$ (7.48)$ (8.62)$ 1/ Avoided costs are before Environmental Externalities adder.
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 235
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: HIGH GROWTH – LOW PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR Annual
High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Nov (1.87)$ (1.83)$ (2.62)$ (1.94)$ (2.62)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.87)$ (1.83)$ (2.62)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.08)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Dec (2.14)$ (1.59)$ (2.63)$ (2.39)$ (2.76)$ (2.39)$ (2.39)$ (2.39)$ (2.14)$ (1.59)$ (2.63)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.47)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Jan (2.16)$ (1.69)$ (2.62)$ (2.03)$ (2.81)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (2.16)$ (1.69)$ (2.62)$ (2.16)$ (2.16)$ (2.19)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Feb (2.50)$ (2.17)$ (2.69)$ (2.27)$ (2.94)$ (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.27)$ (2.50)$ (2.17)$ (2.69)$ (2.45)$ (2.45)$ (2.40)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Mar (0.95)$ (0.95)$ (2.62)$ (0.98)$ (2.62)$ (0.98)$ (0.98)$ (0.98)$ (0.95)$ (0.95)$ (2.62)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (1.31)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Apr (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.62)$ (1.11)$ (2.62)$ (1.11)$ (1.11)$ (1.11)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.62)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.41)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 May (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.62)$ (1.08)$ (2.62)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.62)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (1.38)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Jun (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.62)$ (1.07)$ (2.62)$ (1.07)$ (1.07)$ (1.07)$ (1.05)$ (1.05)$ (2.62)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (1.38)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Jul (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.62)$ (1.12)$ (2.62)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.62)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.42)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Aug (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (2.62)$ (1.13)$ (2.62)$ (1.13)$ (1.13)$ (1.13)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (2.62)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.43)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Sep (1.06)$ (1.06)$ (2.62)$ (1.08)$ (2.62)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (1.06)$ (1.06)$ (2.62)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (1.39)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 Oct (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (3.17)$ (1.12)$ (3.17)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (3.17)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.53)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Nov (1.40)$ (1.35)$ (2.63)$ (1.51)$ (2.63)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (1.40)$ (1.35)$ (2.63)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.73)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Dec (2.09)$ (1.51)$ (2.63)$ (2.51)$ (2.78)$ (2.51)$ (2.51)$ (2.51)$ (2.09)$ (1.51)$ (2.63)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.56)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Jan (2.04)$ (1.57)$ (2.63)$ (1.87)$ (2.86)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.04)$ (1.57)$ (2.63)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.07)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Feb (2.06)$ (1.58)$ (2.66)$ (1.72)$ (2.75)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (2.06)$ (1.58)$ (2.66)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (1.93)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Mar (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.63)$ (1.48)$ (2.63)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.63)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.71)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Apr (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.63)$ (1.12)$ (2.63)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.12)$ (1.09)$ (1.09)$ (2.63)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.42)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 May (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.63)$ (1.10)$ (2.63)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (1.10)$ (1.08)$ (1.08)$ (2.63)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.41)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Jun (1.16)$ (1.16)$ (2.63)$ (1.19)$ (2.63)$ (1.19)$ (1.19)$ (1.19)$ (1.16)$ (1.16)$ (2.63)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.48)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Jul (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.63)$ (1.27)$ (2.63)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.63)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.54)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Aug (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.63)$ (1.27)$ (2.63)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.63)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.55)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Sep (1.16)$ (1.16)$ (2.63)$ (1.19)$ (2.63)$ (1.19)$ (1.19)$ (1.19)$ (1.16)$ (1.16)$ (2.63)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.48)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 Oct (1.19)$ (1.19)$ (2.63)$ (1.22)$ (2.63)$ (1.22)$ (1.22)$ (1.22)$ (1.19)$ (1.19)$ (2.63)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.50)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Nov (1.42)$ (1.37)$ (2.63)$ (1.53)$ (2.63)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (1.42)$ (1.37)$ (2.63)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.75)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Dec (2.12)$ (1.55)$ (2.64)$ (2.52)$ (2.73)$ (2.52)$ (2.52)$ (2.52)$ (2.12)$ (1.55)$ (2.64)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.56)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Jan (2.11)$ (1.64)$ (2.63)$ (1.89)$ (2.80)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.11)$ (1.64)$ (2.63)$ (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (2.07)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Feb (2.08)$ (1.60)$ (2.63)$ (1.71)$ (2.66)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (2.08)$ (1.60)$ (2.63)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (1.90)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Mar (1.43)$ (1.43)$ (2.58)$ (1.47)$ (2.58)$ (1.47)$ (1.47)$ (1.47)$ (1.43)$ (1.43)$ (2.58)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.69)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Apr (1.18)$ (1.18)$ (2.28)$ (1.20)$ (2.28)$ (1.20)$ (1.20)$ (1.20)$ (1.18)$ (1.18)$ (2.28)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.42)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 May (1.18)$ (1.18)$ (2.28)$ (1.21)$ (2.28)$ (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (1.18)$ (1.18)$ (2.28)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.42)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Jun (1.18)$ (1.18)$ (2.28)$ (1.21)$ (2.28)$ (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (1.18)$ (1.18)$ (2.28)$ (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (1.42)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Jul (1.23)$ (1.23)$ (2.28)$ (1.26)$ (2.28)$ (1.26)$ (1.26)$ (1.26)$ (1.23)$ (1.23)$ (2.28)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (1.46)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Aug (1.25)$ (1.25)$ (2.28)$ (1.28)$ (2.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.25)$ (1.25)$ (2.28)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.48)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Sep (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (2.28)$ (1.24)$ (2.28)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (2.28)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.44)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 Oct (1.26)$ (1.26)$ (2.51)$ (1.29)$ (2.51)$ (1.29)$ (1.29)$ (1.29)$ (1.26)$ (1.26)$ (2.51)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (1.53)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Nov (1.34)$ (1.29)$ (2.28)$ (1.42)$ (2.28)$ (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (1.34)$ (1.29)$ (2.28)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.59)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Dec (1.96)$ (1.42)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (2.41)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (1.96)$ (1.42)$ (2.29)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.31)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Jan (2.11)$ (1.65)$ (2.28)$ (1.73)$ (2.64)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.11)$ (1.65)$ (2.28)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (1.91)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Feb (2.10)$ (1.60)$ (2.30)$ (1.65)$ (2.40)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.10)$ (1.60)$ (2.30)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.80)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Mar (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (2.27)$ (1.54)$ (2.27)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (2.27)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.69)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Apr (1.26)$ (1.26)$ (2.08)$ (1.29)$ (2.08)$ (1.29)$ (1.29)$ (1.29)$ (1.26)$ (1.26)$ (2.08)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (1.45)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 May (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.09)$ (1.27)$ (2.09)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (2.09)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.44)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Jun (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (2.09)$ (1.31)$ (2.09)$ (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (2.09)$ (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (1.46)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Jul (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (2.09)$ (1.38)$ (2.09)$ (1.38)$ (1.38)$ (1.38)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (2.09)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.52)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Aug (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (2.09)$ (1.39)$ (2.09)$ (1.39)$ (1.39)$ (1.39)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (2.09)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.53)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Sep (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (2.09)$ (1.31)$ (2.09)$ (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (2.09)$ (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (1.46)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 Oct (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (2.19)$ (1.36)$ (2.19)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (2.19)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.52)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Nov (1.50)$ (1.41)$ (2.09)$ (1.50)$ (2.09)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.41)$ (2.09)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.62)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Dec (2.01)$ (1.52)$ (2.10)$ (2.21)$ (2.38)$ (2.21)$ (2.21)$ (2.21)$ (2.01)$ (1.52)$ (2.10)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (2.24)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Jan (2.09)$ (1.62)$ (2.09)$ (1.67)$ (2.35)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (2.09)$ (1.62)$ (2.09)$ (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (1.81)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Feb (2.07)$ (1.64)$ (2.10)$ (1.68)$ (2.20)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (2.07)$ (1.64)$ (2.10)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.78)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Mar (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.06)$ (1.62)$ (2.06)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.06)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.71)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Apr (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.91)$ (1.35)$ (1.91)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.91)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.46)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 May (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.92)$ (1.35)$ (1.92)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.92)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.47)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Jun (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.92)$ (1.35)$ (1.92)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.92)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (1.46)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Jul (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.92)$ (1.39)$ (1.92)$ (1.39)$ (1.39)$ (1.39)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.92)$ (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (1.50)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Aug (1.38)$ (1.38)$ (1.92)$ (1.41)$ (1.92)$ (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (1.38)$ (1.38)$ (1.92)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.51)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Sep (1.38)$ (1.38)$ (1.92)$ (1.41)$ (1.92)$ (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (1.41)$ (1.38)$ (1.38)$ (1.92)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.51)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 Oct (1.40)$ (1.40)$ (2.08)$ (1.43)$ (2.08)$ (1.43)$ (1.43)$ (1.43)$ (1.40)$ (1.40)$ (2.08)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (1.56)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Nov (1.48)$ (1.34)$ (1.92)$ (1.42)$ (1.92)$ (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (1.48)$ (1.34)$ (1.92)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (1.52)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Dec (1.93)$ (1.46)$ (1.94)$ (2.07)$ (2.36)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (1.93)$ (1.46)$ (1.94)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (2.13)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Jan (1.95)$ (1.52)$ (1.95)$ (1.56)$ (2.29)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.95)$ (1.52)$ (1.95)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.70)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Feb (1.91)$ (1.49)$ (1.93)$ (1.52)$ (2.04)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (1.91)$ (1.49)$ (1.93)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.63)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Mar (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (1.88)$ (1.48)$ (1.88)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (1.88)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.56)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Apr (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (1.83)$ (1.24)$ (1.83)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (1.24)$ (1.21)$ (1.21)$ (1.83)$ (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (1.36)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 May (1.25)$ (1.25)$ (1.83)$ (1.28)$ (1.83)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.28)$ (1.25)$ (1.25)$ (1.83)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (1.39)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Jun (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.83)$ (1.30)$ (1.83)$ (1.30)$ (1.30)$ (1.30)$ (1.27)$ (1.27)$ (1.83)$ (1.46)$ (1.46)$ (1.41)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Jul (1.29)$ (1.29)$ (1.83)$ (1.32)$ (1.83)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.29)$ (1.29)$ (1.83)$ (1.47)$ (1.47)$ (1.42)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Aug (1.33)$ (1.33)$ (1.83)$ (1.36)$ (1.83)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.36)$ (1.33)$ (1.33)$ (1.83)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.46)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Sep (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.83)$ (1.34)$ (1.83)$ (1.34)$ (1.34)$ (1.34)$ (1.31)$ (1.31)$ (1.83)$ (1.49)$ (1.49)$ (1.44)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 Oct (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.99)$ (1.35)$ (1.99)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.35)$ (1.32)$ (1.32)$ (1.99)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.48)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Nov (1.57)$ (1.43)$ (2.15)$ (1.60)$ (2.15)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.57)$ (1.43)$ (2.15)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (1.71)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Dec (2.07)$ (1.58)$ (2.16)$ (2.28)$ (2.48)$ (2.28)$ (2.28)$ (2.28)$ (2.07)$ (1.58)$ (2.16)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (2.32)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Jan (2.13)$ (1.66)$ (2.16)$ (1.79)$ (2.41)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (2.13)$ (1.66)$ (2.16)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.91)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Feb (2.14)$ (1.66)$ (2.17)$ (1.71)$ (2.25)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (2.14)$ (1.66)$ (2.17)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.82)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Mar (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (2.15)$ (1.66)$ (2.15)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (2.15)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (1.76)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Apr (1.47)$ (1.47)$ (2.15)$ (1.50)$ (2.15)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.50)$ (1.47)$ (1.47)$ (2.15)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.63)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 May (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.15)$ (1.48)$ (2.15)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.15)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (1.62)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Jun (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (2.15)$ (1.46)$ (2.15)$ (1.46)$ (1.46)$ (1.46)$ (1.42)$ (1.42)$ (2.15)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.60)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Jul (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (2.15)$ (1.56)$ (2.15)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (2.15)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.68)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Aug (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.15)$ (1.65)$ (2.15)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.15)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.75)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Sep (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.15)$ (1.63)$ (2.15)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.15)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.73)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 Oct (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (2.34)$ (1.67)$ (2.34)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (1.63)$ (1.63)$ (2.34)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.80)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Nov (1.74)$ (1.60)$ (2.28)$ (1.77)$ (2.28)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.74)$ (1.60)$ (2.28)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Dec (2.16)$ (1.66)$ (2.29)$ (2.40)$ (2.61)$ (2.40)$ (2.40)$ (2.40)$ (2.16)$ (1.66)$ (2.29)$ (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (2.44)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Jan (2.17)$ (1.70)$ (2.29)$ (1.86)$ (2.64)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (2.17)$ (1.70)$ (2.29)$ (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (2.01)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Feb (2.21)$ (1.71)$ (2.31)$ (1.76)$ (2.37)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (2.21)$ (1.71)$ (2.31)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (1.88)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Mar (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.28)$ (1.62)$ (2.28)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.28)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.76)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Apr (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.28)$ (1.49)$ (2.28)$ (1.49)$ (1.49)$ (1.49)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.28)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (1.65)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 May (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (2.29)$ (1.51)$ (2.29)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (2.29)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (1.67)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Jun (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (2.29)$ (1.58)$ (2.29)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (2.29)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.72)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Jul (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (2.29)$ (1.64)$ (2.29)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (2.29)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.77)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Aug (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.29)$ (1.66)$ (2.29)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.29)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.79)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Sep (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.29)$ (1.61)$ (2.29)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.29)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.75)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 Oct (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.39)$ (1.62)$ (2.39)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (2.39)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.78)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Nov (1.66)$ (1.52)$ (2.29)$ (1.71)$ (2.29)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.66)$ (1.52)$ (2.29)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.82)$
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 236
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: HIGH GROWTH – LOW PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR Annual
High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Dec (2.11)$ (1.60)$ (2.30)$ (2.39)$ (2.53)$ (2.39)$ (2.39)$ (2.39)$ (2.11)$ (1.60)$ (2.30)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.41)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Jan (2.13)$ (1.66)$ (2.30)$ (1.84)$ (2.57)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (2.13)$ (1.66)$ (2.30)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (1.98)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Feb (2.16)$ (1.64)$ (2.30)$ (1.70)$ (2.35)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (2.16)$ (1.64)$ (2.30)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (1.83)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Mar (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (2.25)$ (1.56)$ (2.25)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (2.25)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.70)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Apr (1.40)$ (1.40)$ (2.25)$ (1.44)$ (2.25)$ (1.44)$ (1.44)$ (1.44)$ (1.40)$ (1.40)$ (2.25)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (1.60)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 May (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.25)$ (1.48)$ (2.25)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.48)$ (1.45)$ (1.45)$ (2.25)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.63)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Jun (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (2.25)$ (1.56)$ (2.23)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.56)$ (1.52)$ (1.52)$ (2.25)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.69)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Jul (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (2.25)$ (1.64)$ (2.25)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (2.25)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.76)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Aug (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.25)$ (1.65)$ (2.25)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.25)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.77)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Sep (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (2.25)$ (1.59)$ (2.25)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.59)$ (1.55)$ (1.55)$ (2.25)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.72)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 Oct (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.27)$ (1.65)$ (2.27)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (2.27)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.77)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Nov (1.67)$ (1.53)$ (2.25)$ (1.71)$ (2.25)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.67)$ (1.53)$ (2.25)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Dec (2.12)$ (1.62)$ (2.27)$ (2.34)$ (2.50)$ (2.34)$ (2.34)$ (2.34)$ (2.12)$ (1.62)$ (2.27)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.37)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Jan (2.15)$ (1.69)$ (2.26)$ (2.26)$ (2.51)$ (2.26)$ (2.26)$ (2.26)$ (2.15)$ (1.69)$ (2.26)$ (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (2.31)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Feb (2.20)$ (1.68)$ (2.27)$ (1.74)$ (2.30)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.20)$ (1.68)$ (2.27)$ (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (1.85)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Mar (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.22)$ (1.66)$ (2.22)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.22)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.77)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Apr (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (2.22)$ (1.57)$ (2.22)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (1.53)$ (1.53)$ (2.22)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.70)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 May (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (2.22)$ (1.54)$ (2.19)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.54)$ (1.51)$ (1.51)$ (2.22)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (1.67)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Jun (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (2.22)$ (1.60)$ (2.22)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.60)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (2.22)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.73)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Jul (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.22)$ (1.69)$ (2.22)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.22)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.79)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Aug (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (2.22)$ (1.70)$ (2.22)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (2.22)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.81)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Sep (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.23)$ (1.65)$ (2.23)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (2.23)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.77)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 Oct (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.29)$ (1.69)$ (2.29)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.29)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.81)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Nov (1.75)$ (1.60)$ (2.23)$ (1.76)$ (2.23)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.75)$ (1.60)$ (2.23)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.85)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Dec (2.22)$ (1.75)$ (2.25)$ (2.31)$ (2.45)$ (2.31)$ (2.31)$ (2.31)$ (2.22)$ (1.75)$ (2.25)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.34)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Jan (2.24)$ (1.78)$ (2.25)$ (2.23)$ (2.59)$ (2.23)$ (2.23)$ (2.23)$ (2.24)$ (1.78)$ (2.25)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (2.30)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Feb (2.18)$ (1.70)$ (2.26)$ (1.77)$ (2.29)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.18)$ (1.70)$ (2.26)$ (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (1.87)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Mar (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (2.23)$ (1.68)$ (2.23)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (1.68)$ (1.64)$ (1.64)$ (2.23)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.79)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Apr (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.23)$ (1.62)$ (2.23)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.62)$ (1.58)$ (1.58)$ (2.23)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (1.74)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 May (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (2.23)$ (1.61)$ (2.23)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.61)$ (1.57)$ (1.57)$ (2.23)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.73)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Jun (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (2.23)$ (1.70)$ (2.23)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (2.23)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.81)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Jul (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.23)$ (1.77)$ (2.23)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.23)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.86)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Aug (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (2.23)$ (1.80)$ (2.21)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (2.23)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (1.88)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Sep (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.24)$ (1.69)$ (2.23)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (1.65)$ (1.65)$ (2.24)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.80)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 Oct (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (2.24)$ (1.74)$ (2.24)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (2.24)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (1.84)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Nov (1.86)$ (1.72)$ (2.26)$ (1.91)$ (2.26)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (1.86)$ (1.72)$ (2.26)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.98)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Dec (2.28)$ (1.81)$ (2.29)$ (2.35)$ (2.52)$ (2.35)$ (2.35)$ (2.35)$ (2.28)$ (1.81)$ (2.29)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.39)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Jan (2.29)$ (1.85)$ (2.29)$ (2.26)$ (2.67)$ (2.26)$ (2.26)$ (2.26)$ (2.29)$ (1.85)$ (2.29)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.34)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Feb (2.30)$ (1.92)$ (2.30)$ (1.99)$ (2.32)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (2.30)$ (1.92)$ (2.30)$ (2.17)$ (2.17)$ (2.05)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Mar (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.25)$ (1.84)$ (2.25)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.25)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.92)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Apr (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (2.25)$ (1.76)$ (2.25)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (2.25)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.86)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 May (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (2.25)$ (1.75)$ (2.25)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (2.25)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.85)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Jun (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.25)$ (1.76)$ (2.25)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.25)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.86)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Jul (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.25)$ (1.85)$ (2.25)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.25)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.93)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Aug (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.25)$ (1.86)$ (2.25)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.25)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.94)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Sep (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (2.26)$ (1.79)$ (2.25)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (2.26)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (1.88)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 Oct (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (2.26)$ (1.88)$ (2.26)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (2.26)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.95)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Nov (2.01)$ (1.87)$ (2.42)$ (2.06)$ (2.42)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.01)$ (1.87)$ (2.42)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.13)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Dec (2.45)$ (1.99)$ (2.45)$ (2.49)$ (2.52)$ (2.49)$ (2.49)$ (2.49)$ (2.45)$ (1.99)$ (2.45)$ (2.30)$ (2.30)$ (2.49)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Jan (2.45)$ (1.99)$ (2.45)$ (2.42)$ (2.62)$ (2.42)$ (2.42)$ (2.42)$ (2.45)$ (1.99)$ (2.45)$ (2.30)$ (2.30)$ (2.46)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Feb (2.44)$ (2.00)$ (2.44)$ (2.08)$ (2.45)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.44)$ (2.00)$ (2.44)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (2.16)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Mar (1.84)$ (1.83)$ (2.44)$ (1.87)$ (2.44)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.84)$ (1.83)$ (2.44)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (1.98)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Apr (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (2.36)$ (1.80)$ (2.36)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (2.36)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.91)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 May (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (2.36)$ (1.83)$ (2.36)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (2.36)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.94)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Jun (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.36)$ (1.87)$ (2.36)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.36)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.96)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Jul (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (2.36)$ (1.95)$ (2.36)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (2.36)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.03)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Aug (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (2.36)$ (1.98)$ (2.27)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (2.36)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.04)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Sep (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.36)$ (1.91)$ (2.36)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.36)$ (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (2.00)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 Oct (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (2.41)$ (1.95)$ (2.41)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (2.41)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.04)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Nov (1.99)$ (1.85)$ (2.45)$ (2.06)$ (2.45)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (1.99)$ (1.85)$ (2.45)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.14)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Dec (2.45)$ (1.98)$ (2.47)$ (2.53)$ (2.62)$ (2.53)$ (2.53)$ (2.53)$ (2.45)$ (1.98)$ (2.47)$ (2.30)$ (2.30)$ (2.55)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Jan (2.48)$ (2.02)$ (2.48)$ (2.45)$ (2.74)$ (2.45)$ (2.45)$ (2.45)$ (2.48)$ (2.02)$ (2.48)$ (2.33)$ (2.33)$ (2.51)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Feb (2.49)$ (2.06)$ (2.49)$ (2.14)$ (2.51)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.49)$ (2.06)$ (2.49)$ (2.35)$ (2.35)$ (2.21)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Mar (1.92)$ (1.91)$ (2.48)$ (1.95)$ (2.48)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.92)$ (1.91)$ (2.48)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.05)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Apr (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.36)$ (1.81)$ (2.36)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.36)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.92)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 May (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.36)$ (1.85)$ (2.36)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.36)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.96)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Jun (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.36)$ (1.87)$ (2.36)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (2.36)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (1.97)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Jul (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (2.36)$ (1.98)$ (2.36)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (2.36)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.06)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Aug (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (2.36)$ (2.01)$ (2.36)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (2.36)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.08)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Sep (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (2.36)$ (1.96)$ (2.36)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (2.36)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.04)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 Oct (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (2.36)$ (1.99)$ (2.36)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (2.36)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.06)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Nov (2.07)$ (1.88)$ (2.46)$ (2.08)$ (2.46)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.07)$ (1.88)$ (2.46)$ (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (2.16)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Dec (2.43)$ (1.95)$ (2.49)$ (2.54)$ (2.59)$ (2.54)$ (2.54)$ (2.54)$ (2.43)$ (1.95)$ (2.49)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (2.55)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Jan (2.46)$ (2.00)$ (2.48)$ (2.46)$ (2.71)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (2.00)$ (2.48)$ (2.32)$ (2.32)$ (2.51)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Feb (2.89)$ (1.98)$ (2.95)$ (2.08)$ (2.98)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.89)$ (1.98)$ (2.95)$ (2.61)$ (2.61)$ (2.26)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Mar (1.86)$ (1.85)$ (2.46)$ (1.89)$ (2.46)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.86)$ (1.85)$ (2.46)$ (2.06)$ (2.06)$ (2.00)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Apr (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.46)$ (1.77)$ (2.46)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (2.46)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.91)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 May (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (2.46)$ (1.79)$ (2.46)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (2.46)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.92)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Jun (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.46)$ (1.84)$ (2.46)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.84)$ (1.80)$ (1.80)$ (2.46)$ (2.02)$ (2.02)$ (1.96)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Jul (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.46)$ (1.93)$ (2.46)$ (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.46)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.04)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Aug (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (2.46)$ (1.96)$ (2.46)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (2.46)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.06)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Sep (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.46)$ (1.91)$ (2.46)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (1.91)$ (1.87)$ (1.87)$ (2.46)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.02)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 Oct (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.47)$ (1.99)$ (2.42)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.47)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.08)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Nov (2.05)$ (1.86)$ (2.47)$ (2.13)$ (2.47)$ (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (2.05)$ (1.86)$ (2.47)$ (2.13)$ (2.13)$ (2.20)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Dec (2.47)$ (2.00)$ (2.50)$ (2.55)$ (2.62)$ (2.55)$ (2.55)$ (2.55)$ (2.47)$ (2.00)$ (2.50)$ (2.32)$ (2.32)$ (2.57)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Jan (2.50)$ (2.04)$ (2.50)$ (2.47)$ (2.64)$ (2.47)$ (2.47)$ (2.47)$ (2.50)$ (2.04)$ (2.50)$ (2.35)$ (2.35)$ (2.50)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Feb (2.99)$ (2.06)$ (2.99)$ (2.15)$ (3.00)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.99)$ (2.06)$ (2.99)$ (2.68)$ (2.68)$ (2.32)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Mar (1.93)$ (1.91)$ (2.48)$ (1.95)$ (2.48)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.93)$ (1.91)$ (2.48)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.06)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Apr (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.43)$ (1.85)$ (2.43)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.85)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.43)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (1.96)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 May (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (2.43)$ (1.83)$ (2.43)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (2.43)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.95)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Jun (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.43)$ (1.86)$ (2.43)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (2.43)$ (2.02)$ (2.02)$ (1.97)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Jul (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.43)$ (1.99)$ (2.43)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.43)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.08)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Aug (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (2.43)$ (2.00)$ (2.43)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (2.43)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.09)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Sep (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.43)$ (1.94)$ (2.43)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.43)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.04)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 Oct (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.43)$ (1.95)$ (2.42)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.43)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.04)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Nov (2.07)$ (1.88)$ (2.48)$ (2.15)$ (2.48)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.07)$ (1.88)$ (2.48)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.22)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Dec (2.47)$ (2.00)$ (2.51)$ (2.57)$ (2.62)$ (2.57)$ (2.57)$ (2.57)$ (2.47)$ (2.00)$ (2.51)$ (2.33)$ (2.33)$ (2.58)$
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/
Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 237
Appendix - Chapter 6

APPENDIX 6.4: HIGH GROWTH – LOW PRICE MONTHLY DETAIL

Scenario Gas Year Month ID Both ID GTN ID NWP Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Roseburg WA Both WA GTN WA NWP ID Annual WA Annual OR Annual
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Jan (2.47)$ (2.01)$ (2.52)$ (2.49)$ (2.69)$ (2.49)$ (2.49)$ (2.49)$ (2.47)$ (2.01)$ (2.52)$ (2.33)$ (2.33)$ (2.53)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Feb (3.00)$ (2.04)$ (3.01)$ (2.12)$ (3.05)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (3.00)$ (2.04)$ (3.01)$ (2.68)$ (2.68)$ (2.31)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Mar (1.87)$ (1.86)$ (2.49)$ (1.90)$ (2.49)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.87)$ (1.86)$ (2.49)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.02)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Apr (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.49)$ (1.78)$ (2.49)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.49)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.92)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 May (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.49)$ (1.78)$ (2.49)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.49)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.92)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Jun (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.49)$ (1.81)$ (2.49)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.49)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (1.95)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Jul (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.49)$ (1.94)$ (2.49)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (2.49)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (2.05)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Aug (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.49)$ (1.94)$ (2.49)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.49)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.05)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Sep (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.49)$ (1.86)$ (2.46)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.49)$ (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (1.98)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 Oct (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (2.55)$ (1.90)$ (2.55)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (2.55)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (2.03)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Nov (2.06)$ (1.88)$ (2.50)$ (2.15)$ (2.50)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.15)$ (2.06)$ (1.88)$ (2.50)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.22)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Dec (2.44)$ (1.96)$ (2.53)$ (2.59)$ (2.68)$ (2.59)$ (2.59)$ (2.59)$ (2.44)$ (1.96)$ (2.53)$ (2.31)$ (2.31)$ (2.61)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Jan (2.48)$ (2.02)$ (2.53)$ (2.50)$ (2.76)$ (2.50)$ (2.50)$ (2.50)$ (2.48)$ (2.02)$ (2.53)$ (2.34)$ (2.34)$ (2.55)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Feb (3.00)$ (2.02)$ (3.04)$ (2.11)$ (3.09)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (3.00)$ (2.02)$ (3.04)$ (2.69)$ (2.69)$ (2.31)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Mar (1.94)$ (1.89)$ (2.49)$ (1.94)$ (2.49)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.89)$ (2.49)$ (2.11)$ (2.11)$ (2.05)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Apr (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (2.49)$ (1.82)$ (2.49)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (2.49)$ (2.02)$ (2.02)$ (1.96)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 May (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (2.49)$ (1.76)$ (2.49)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (2.49)$ (1.98)$ (1.98)$ (1.91)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Jun (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (2.49)$ (1.79)$ (2.49)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.79)$ (1.75)$ (1.75)$ (2.49)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.93)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Jul (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (2.49)$ (1.90)$ (2.49)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (2.49)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.02)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Aug (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (2.49)$ (1.92)$ (2.49)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (1.88)$ (1.88)$ (2.49)$ (2.08)$ (2.08)$ (2.03)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Sep (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.49)$ (1.86)$ (2.48)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (2.49)$ (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (1.98)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 Oct (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.51)$ (1.81)$ (2.51)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.51)$ (2.02)$ (2.02)$ (1.95)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Nov (1.87)$ (1.68)$ (2.50)$ (2.03)$ (2.50)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (2.03)$ (1.87)$ (1.68)$ (2.50)$ (2.01)$ (2.01)$ (2.13)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Dec (2.24)$ (1.72)$ (2.53)$ (2.61)$ (2.74)$ (2.61)$ (2.61)$ (2.61)$ (2.24)$ (1.72)$ (2.53)$ (2.16)$ (2.16)$ (2.63)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Jan (2.32)$ (1.86)$ (2.53)$ (2.50)$ (2.89)$ (2.50)$ (2.50)$ (2.50)$ (2.32)$ (1.86)$ (2.53)$ (2.23)$ (2.23)$ (2.58)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Feb (2.95)$ (1.97)$ (3.04)$ (2.07)$ (3.12)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.07)$ (2.95)$ (1.97)$ (3.04)$ (2.65)$ (2.65)$ (2.28)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Mar (1.86)$ (1.82)$ (2.48)$ (1.86)$ (2.48)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.82)$ (2.48)$ (2.05)$ (2.05)$ (1.98)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Apr (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (2.45)$ (1.74)$ (2.45)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (2.45)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.88)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 May (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (2.45)$ (1.72)$ (2.45)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (1.72)$ (1.69)$ (1.69)$ (2.45)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.87)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Jun (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.46)$ (1.81)$ (2.45)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (2.46)$ (2.00)$ (2.00)$ (1.94)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Jul (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.46)$ (1.99)$ (2.46)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (2.46)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.09)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Aug (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (2.46)$ (2.09)$ (2.46)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (2.09)$ (2.04)$ (2.04)$ (2.46)$ (2.18)$ (2.18)$ (2.16)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Sep (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (2.46)$ (1.96)$ (2.40)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.96)$ (1.92)$ (1.92)$ (2.46)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.05)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 Oct (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.51)$ (1.95)$ (2.51)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.95)$ (1.90)$ (1.90)$ (2.51)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.06)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Nov (2.04)$ (1.85)$ (2.46)$ (2.12)$ (2.46)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.04)$ (1.85)$ (2.46)$ (2.12)$ (2.12)$ (2.19)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Dec (2.42)$ (1.94)$ (2.50)$ (2.62)$ (2.98)$ (38.11)$ (38.11)$ (38.11)$ (2.42)$ (1.94)$ (2.50)$ (2.29)$ (2.29)$ (23.99)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Jan (2.45)$ (1.99)$ (2.49)$ (2.46)$ (2.91)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (2.46)$ (2.45)$ (1.99)$ (2.49)$ (2.31)$ (2.31)$ (2.55)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Feb (3.00)$ (2.09)$ (3.00)$ (2.14)$ (3.09)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (2.14)$ (3.00)$ (2.09)$ (3.00)$ (2.70)$ (2.70)$ (2.33)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Mar (1.89)$ (1.85)$ (2.55)$ (1.89)$ (2.55)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.89)$ (1.85)$ (2.55)$ (2.10)$ (2.10)$ (2.02)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Apr (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (2.14)$ (1.71)$ (2.14)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.71)$ (1.67)$ (1.67)$ (2.14)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.80)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 May (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.97)$ (1.70)$ (1.97)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.70)$ (1.66)$ (1.66)$ (1.97)$ (1.76)$ (1.76)$ (1.75)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Jun (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (1.97)$ (1.77)$ (1.97)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.77)$ (1.73)$ (1.73)$ (1.97)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ (1.81)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Jul (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.93)$ (1.93)$ (1.97)$ (1.94)$ (1.94)$ (1.97)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Aug (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (2.01)$ (1.98)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.97)$ (1.98)$ High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Sep (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.86)$ (1.82)$ (1.82)$ (1.86)$ (1.83)$ (1.83)$ (1.86)$
High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 Oct (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.49)$ (1.78)$ (2.49)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.78)$ (1.74)$ (1.74)$ (2.49)$ (1.99)$ (1.99)$ (1.92)$
1/ Avoided costs are before Environmental Externalities adder.
Monthly Avoided Costs 1/Nominal$
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 238
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.1: HIGH GROWTH CASES
SELECTED RESOURCES VS. PEAK DAY DEMAND
EXISTING PLUS EXPECTED AVAILABLE

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 239
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.1: HIGH GROWTH CASES
SELECTED RESOURCES VS. PEAK DAY DEMAND
EXISTING PLUS EXPECTED AVAILABLE

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 240
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.2: PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
HIGH GROWTH

Scenario Gas Year

LaGrande
Served
LaGrande
Unserved
LaGrande
Total
LaGrande %
of Peak Day
Served
WA
Served
WA
Unserved WA Total
WA % of
Peak Day
Served
ID
Served
ID
Unserved ID Total
ID % of
Peak
Day
Served
High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 7.59 - 7.59 100%189.28 - 189.28 100%90.23 - 90.23 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 7.68 - 7.68 100%192.33 - 192.33 100%91.76 - 91.76 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 7.77 - 7.77 100%195.29 - 195.29 100%93.31 - 93.31 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 7.86 - 7.86 100%198.09 - 198.09 100%94.87 - 94.87 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 7.95 - 7.95 100%200.64 - 200.64 100%96.42 - 96.42 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 8.04 - 8.04 100%203.02 - 203.02 100%97.92 - 97.92 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 8.12 - 8.12 100%205.77 - 205.77 100%99.59 - 99.59 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 8.19 - 8.19 100%207.58 - 207.58 100%100.71 - 100.71 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 8.27 - 8.27 100%209.64 - 209.64 100%101.96 - 101.96 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 8.35 - 8.35 100%211.61 - 211.61 100%103.16 - 103.16 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 8.44 - 8.44 100%213.70 - 213.70 100%104.48 - 104.48 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 8.53 - 8.53 100%215.35 - 215.35 100%105.61 - 105.61 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 8.62 - 8.62 100%217.17 - 217.17 100%106.87 - 106.87 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 8.71 - 8.71 100%218.97 - 218.97 100%108.20 - 108.20 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 6.65 2.15 8.80 76%219.84 1.26 221.10 99%109.77 - 109.77 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 6.65 2.23 8.88 75%222.62 - 222.62 100%107.22 3.87 111.09 97%
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 6.65 2.30 8.95 74%217.46 7.01 224.47 97%112.65 - 112.65 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 6.65 2.38 9.03 74%216.11 10.23 226.34 95%114.28 - 114.28 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 6.65 2.46 9.11 73%214.55 14.08 228.64 94%116.17 - 116.17 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 9.17 - 9.17 100%223.92 6.25 230.17 97%104.53 13.20 117.73 89%
Scenario Gas Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls Total
Klamath
Falls % of
Peak Day
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved

Medford/
Roseburg
Total

Medford/
Roseburg
% of Peak
Day
Served
High Growth_Low Prices 2017-2018 13.34 - 13.34 100%75.36 - 75.36 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2018-2019 13.52 - 13.52 100%76.47 - 76.47 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2019-2020 13.71 - 13.71 100%77.55 - 77.55 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2020-2021 13.90 - 13.90 100%78.64 - 78.64 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2021-2022 14.09 - 14.09 100%79.75 - 79.75 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2022-2023 14.28 - 14.28 100%80.86 - 80.86 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2023-2024 14.47 - 14.47 100%81.91 - 81.91 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2024-2025 14.65 - 14.65 100%82.79 - 82.79 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2025-2026 14.84 - 14.84 100%83.77 - 83.77 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2026-2027 15.02 - 15.02 100%84.75 - 84.75 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2027-2028 15.20 - 15.20 100%85.72 - 85.72 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2028-2029 15.37 - 15.37 100%86.66 - 86.66 100%High Growth_Low Prices 2029-2030 15.54 - 15.54 100%87.57 - 87.57 100%
High Growth_Low Prices 2030-2031 15.69 - 15.69 100%87.96 0.48 88.44 99%High Growth_Low Prices 2031-2032 15.85 - 15.85 100%87.97 1.30 89.27 99%
High Growth_Low Prices 2032-2033 16.01 - 16.01 100%87.96 2.10 90.07 98%
High Growth_Low Prices 2033-2034 16.17 - 16.17 100%87.97 2.89 90.85 97%High Growth_Low Prices 2034-2035 16.33 - 16.33 100%87.96 3.64 91.61 96%
High Growth_Low Prices 2035-2036 16.49 - 16.49 100%87.97 4.39 92.36 95%High Growth_Low Prices 2036-2037 16.65 - 16.65 100%87.96 5.14 93.10 94%
Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 241
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.2: PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
LOW GROWTH

Scenario Gas Year
LaGrande
Served
LaGrande
Unserved

LaGrande
Total
LaGrande
% of Peak
Day
Served
WA
Served
WA
Unserved WA Total
WA % of
Peak Day
Served
ID
Served
ID
Unserved ID Total
ID % of
Peak
Day
Served
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 7.47 - 7.47 100%186.53 - 186.53 100%88.59 - 88.59 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 7.44 - 7.44 100%188.06 - 188.06 100%89.11 - 89.11 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 7.41 - 7.41 100%188.88 - 188.88 100%89.46 - 89.46 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 7.36 - 7.36 100%189.55 - 189.55 100%89.80 - 89.80 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 7.33 - 7.33 100%190.26 - 190.26 100%90.08 - 90.08 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 7.32 - 7.32 100%190.74 - 190.74 100%90.30 - 90.30 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 7.32 - 7.32 100%191.70 - 191.70 100%90.77 - 90.77 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 7.31 - 7.31 100%191.90 - 191.90 100%90.79 - 90.79 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 7.32 - 7.32 100%192.41 - 192.41 100%90.97 - 90.97 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 7.32 - 7.32 100%192.85 - 192.85 100%91.12 - 91.12 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 7.32 - 7.32 100%193.42 - 193.42 100%91.36 - 91.36 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 7.31 - 7.31 100%193.37 - 193.37 100%91.30 - 91.30 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 7.30 - 7.30 100%193.72 - 193.72 100%91.46 - 91.46 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 7.30 - 7.30 100%194.08 - 194.08 100%91.67 - 91.67 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 7.31 - 7.31 100%194.79 - 194.79 100%92.07 - 92.07 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 7.30 - 7.30 100%194.91 - 194.91 100%92.20 - 92.20 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 7.30 - 7.30 100%195.39 - 195.39 100%92.54 - 92.54 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 7.31 - 7.31 100%195.91 - 195.91 100%92.93 - 92.93 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 7.32 - 7.32 100%196.87 - 196.87 100%91.40 - 91.40 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 7.32 - 7.32 100%197.07 - 197.07 100%90.70 - 90.70 100%
Scenario Gas Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls Total
Klamath
Falls % of
Peak Day
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved

Medford/
Roseburg
Total

Medford/
Roseburg
% of Peak
Day
Served
Low Growth_High Prices 2017-2018 13.14 - 13.14 100%74.33 - 74.33 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2018-2019 13.20 - 13.20 100%74.83 - 74.83 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2019-2020 13.25 - 13.25 100%75.18 - 75.18 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2020-2021 13.30 - 13.30 100%75.55 - 75.55 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2021-2022 13.29 - 13.29 100%75.63 - 75.63 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2022-2023 13.34 - 13.34 100%76.00 - 76.00 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2023-2024 13.39 - 13.39 100%76.36 - 76.36 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2024-2025 13.43 - 13.43 100%76.66 - 76.66 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2025-2026 13.49 - 13.49 100%77.05 - 77.05 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2026-2027 13.55 - 13.55 100%77.44 - 77.44 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2027-2028 13.61 - 13.61 100%77.82 - 77.82 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2028-2029 13.65 - 13.65 100%78.11 - 78.11 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2029-2030 13.70 - 13.70 100%78.45 - 78.45 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2030-2031 13.75 - 13.75 100%78.77 - 78.77 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2031-2032 13.81 - 13.81 100%79.07 - 79.07 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2032-2033 13.86 - 13.86 100%79.36 - 79.36 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2033-2034 13.92 - 13.92 100%79.63 - 79.63 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2034-2035 13.97 - 13.97 100%79.89 - 79.89 100%
Low Growth_High Prices 2035-2036 14.03 - 14.03 100%80.15 - 80.15 100%Low Growth_High Prices 2036-2037 14.08 - 14.08 100%80.40 - 80.40 100%
Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 242
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.2: PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
COLDEST IN 20 YEARS

Scenario Gas Year

LaGrande
Served

LaGrande
Unserved

LaGrande
Total
LaGrande
% of Peak
Day
Served
WA
Served
WA
Unserved WA Total
WA % of
Peak Day
Served
ID
Served
ID
Unserved
ID
Total
ID % of
Peak
Day
Served
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2017-2018 6.74 - 6.74 100%175.11 - 175.11 100%83.41 - 83.41 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2018-2019 6.77 - 6.77 100%177.19 - 177.19 100%84.37 - 84.37 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2019-2020 6.80 - 6.80 100%178.80 - 178.80 100%85.33 - 85.33 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2020-2021 6.82 - 6.82 100%180.21 - 180.21 100%86.27 - 86.27 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2021-2022 6.82 - 6.82 100%181.62 - 181.62 100%87.08 - 87.08 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2022-2023 6.84 - 6.84 100%182.78 - 182.78 100%87.82 - 87.82 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2023-2024 6.86 - 6.86 100%184.57 - 184.57 100%88.84 - 88.84 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2024-2025 6.87 - 6.87 100%185.41 - 185.41 100%89.32 - 89.32 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2025-2026 6.90 - 6.90 100%186.51 - 186.51 100%89.93 - 89.93 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2026-2027 6.92 - 6.92 100%187.53 - 187.53 100%90.51 - 90.51 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2027-2028 6.94 - 6.94 100%188.68 - 188.68 100%91.19 - 91.19 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2028-2029 6.96 - 6.96 100%189.39 - 189.39 100%91.67 - 91.67 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2029-2030 6.99 - 6.99 100%190.30 - 190.30 100%92.28 - 92.28 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2030-2031 7.01 - 7.01 100%191.20 - 191.20 100%92.93 - 92.93 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2031-2032 7.03 - 7.03 100%192.45 - 192.45 100%93.80 - 93.80 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2032-2033 7.05 - 7.05 100%193.10 - 193.10 100%94.41 - 94.41 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2033-2034 7.06 - 7.06 100%194.09 - 194.09 100%95.23 - 95.23 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2034-2035 7.08 - 7.08 100%195.12 - 195.12 100%96.11 - 96.11 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2035-2036 7.11 - 7.11 100%196.57 - 196.57 100%97.24 - 97.24 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2036-2037 7.11 - 7.11 100%197.27 - 197.27 100%98.01 - 98.01 100%
Scenario Gas Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls
Total
Klamath
Falls % of
Peak Day
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved

Medford/
Roseburg
Total

Medford/
Roseburg
% of Peak
Day
Served
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2017-2018 13.24 - 13.24 100%65.02 - 65.02 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2018-2019 13.36 - 13.36 100%65.71 - 65.71 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2019-2020 13.49 - 13.49 100%66.38 - 66.38 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2020-2021 13.62 - 13.62 100%67.06 - 67.06 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2021-2022 13.67 - 13.67 100%67.37 - 67.37 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2022-2023 13.78 - 13.78 100%67.97 - 67.97 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2023-2024 13.91 - 13.91 100%68.60 - 68.60 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2024-2025 14.02 - 14.02 100%69.09 - 69.09 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2025-2026 14.14 - 14.14 100%69.67 - 69.67 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2026-2027 14.26 - 14.26 100%70.24 - 70.24 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2027-2028 14.37 - 14.37 100%70.80 - 70.80 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2028-2029 14.48 - 14.48 100%71.34 - 71.34 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2029-2030 14.59 - 14.59 100%71.86 - 71.86 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2030-2031 14.69 - 14.69 100%72.35 - 72.35 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2031-2032 14.79 - 14.79 100%72.82 - 72.82 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2032-2033 14.89 - 14.89 100%73.26 - 73.26 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2033-2034 15.00 - 15.00 100%73.69 - 73.69 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2034-2035 15.10 - 15.10 100%74.10 - 74.10 100%Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2035-2036 15.20 - 15.20 100%74.51 - 74.51 100%
Cold Day 20yr Weather Std 2036-2037 15.30 - 15.30 100%74.92 - 74.92 100%
Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 243
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.2: PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
80% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS

Scenario
Gas
Year

LaGrande
Served

LaGrande
Unserved

LaGrande
Total

LaGrande
% of Peak
Day
Served
WA
Served
WA
Unserved WA Total
WA % of
Peak Day
Served
ID
Served
ID
Unserved ID Total
ID % of
Peak Day
Served
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2017-2018 7.34 - 7.34 100%183.27 - 183.27 100%89.42 - 89.42 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2018-2019 7.10 - 7.10 100%178.30 - 178.30 100%90.47 - 90.47 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2019-2020 6.85 - 6.85 100%172.54 - 172.54 100%91.51 - 91.51 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2020-2021 6.65 - 6.65 100%168.02 - 168.02 100%92.53 - 92.53 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2021-2022 6.40 - 6.40 100%162.95 - 162.95 100%93.51 - 93.51 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2022-2023 6.18 - 6.18 100%157.74 - 157.74 100%94.43 - 94.43 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2023-2024 5.94 - 5.94 100%152.30 - 152.30 100%95.53 - 95.53 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2024-2025 5.74 - 5.74 100%147.29 - 147.29 100%96.11 - 96.11 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2025-2026 5.53 - 5.53 100%141.86 - 141.86 100%96.80 - 96.80 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2026-2027 5.32 - 5.32 100%136.37 - 136.37 100%97.46 - 97.46 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2027-2028 5.09 - 5.09 100%130.50 - 130.50 100%98.21 - 98.21 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2028-2029 4.90 - 4.90 100%125.34 - 125.34 100%98.78 - 98.78 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2029-2030 4.70 - 4.70 100%119.86 - 119.86 100%99.46 - 99.46 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2030-2031 4.50 - 4.50 100%110.09 - 110.09 100%100.20 - 100.20 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2031-2032 4.29 - 4.29 100%104.28 - 104.28 100%101.15 - 101.15 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2032-2033 4.10 - 4.10 100%98.59 - 98.59 100%101.85 - 101.85 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2033-2034 3.90 - 3.90 100%92.99 - 92.99 100%102.76 - 102.76 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2034-2035 3.71 - 3.71 100%87.49 - 87.49 100%103.72 - 103.72 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2035-2036 3.50 - 3.50 100%84.04 - 84.04 100%104.94 - 104.94 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2036-2037 3.32 - 3.32 100%69.70 - 69.70 100%105.80 - 105.80 100%
Scenario
Gas
Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls
Total
Klamath
Falls % of
Peak Day
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved

Medford/
Roseburg
Total

Medford/
Roseburg
% of Peak
Day
Served
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2017-2018 12.91 - 12.91 100%72.99 - 72.99 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2018-2019 12.56 - 12.56 100%71.11 - 71.11 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2019-2020 12.17 - 12.17 100%68.94 - 68.94 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2020-2021 11.88 - 11.88 100%67.37 - 67.37 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2021-2022 11.48 - 11.48 100%65.15 - 65.15 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2022-2023 11.14 - 11.14 100%63.29 - 63.29 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2023-2024 10.76 - 10.76 100%61.15 - 61.15 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2024-2025 10.47 - 10.47 100%59.46 - 59.46 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2025-2026 10.13 - 10.13 100%57.56 - 57.56 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2026-2027 9.80 - 9.80 100%55.66 - 55.66 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2027-2028 9.42 - 9.42 100%53.51 - 53.51 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2028-2029 9.12 - 9.12 100%51.82 - 51.82 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2029-2030 8.78 - 8.78 100%49.90 - 49.90 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2030-2031 8.43 - 8.43 100%47.97 - 47.97 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2031-2032 8.06 - 8.06 100%45.82 - 45.82 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2032-2033 7.75 - 7.75 100%44.08 - 44.08 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2033-2034 7.41 - 7.41 100%42.13 - 42.13 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2034-2035 7.07 - 7.07 100%40.17 - 40.17 100%80% Below 1990 Emissions 2035-2036 6.70 - 6.70 100%38.04 - 38.04 100%
80% Below 1990 Emissions 2036-2037 6.39 - 6.39 100%36.26 - 36.26 100%
Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 244
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.2: PEAK DAY DEMAND TABLE
AVERAGE CASE

Scenario Gas Year

LaGrande
Served

LaGrande
Unserved

LaGrande
Total

LaGrande
% of Peak
Day
Served
WA
Served
WA
Unserved WA Total
WA % of
Peak Day
Served
ID
Served
ID
Unserved ID Total
ID % of
Peak Day
Served
Average Case 2017-2018 3.43 - 3.43 100%79.08 - 79.08 100%38.27 - 38.27 100%
Average Case 2018-2019 3.44 - 3.44 100%79.90 - 79.90 100%38.65 - 38.65 100%
Average Case 2019-2020 3.45 - 3.45 100%80.49 - 80.49 100%39.02 - 39.02 100%Average Case 2020-2021 3.46 - 3.46 100%80.94 - 80.94 100%39.33 - 39.33 100%
Average Case 2021-2022 3.45 - 3.45 100%81.32 - 81.32 100%39.57 - 39.57 100%
Average Case 2022-2023 3.46 - 3.46 100%81.53 - 81.53 100%39.73 - 39.73 100%Average Case 2023-2024 3.47 - 3.47 100%82.23 - 82.23 100%40.15 - 40.15 100%
Average Case 2024-2025 3.46 - 3.46 100%82.16 - 82.16 100%40.13 - 40.13 100%
Average Case 2025-2026 3.47 - 3.47 100%82.20 - 82.20 100%40.16 - 40.16 100%
Average Case 2026-2027 3.47 - 3.47 100%82.18 - 82.18 100%40.17 - 40.17 100%Average Case 2027-2028 3.48 - 3.48 100%82.31 - 82.31 100%40.27 - 40.27 100%
Average Case 2028-2029 3.48 - 3.48 100%82.02 - 82.02 100%40.17 - 40.17 100%
Average Case 2029-2030 3.49 - 3.49 100%81.95 - 81.95 100%40.20 - 40.20 100%Average Case 2030-2031 3.49 - 3.49 100%81.90 - 81.90 100%40.26 - 40.26 100%
Average Case 2031-2032 3.50 - 3.50 100%82.21 - 82.21 100%40.53 - 40.53 100%
Average Case 2032-2033 3.49 - 3.49 100%81.95 - 81.95 100%40.52 - 40.52 100%
Average Case 2033-2034 3.50 - 3.50 100%82.05 - 82.05 100%40.72 - 40.72 100%Average Case 2034-2035 3.50 - 3.50 100%82.20 - 82.20 100%40.96 - 40.96 100%
Average Case 2035-2036 3.51 - 3.51 100%82.79 - 82.79 100%41.44 - 41.44 100%
Average Case 2036-2037 3.50 - 3.50 100%82.63 - 82.63 100%41.55 - 41.55 100%
Scenario Gas Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls
Total
Klamath
Falls % of
Peak Day
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Served

Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved

Medford/
Roseburg
Total

Medford/
Roseburg
% of Peak
Day
Served
Average Case 2017-2018 6.90 - 6.90 100%34.80 - 34.80 100%
Average Case 2018-2019 6.96 - 6.96 100%35.13 - 35.13 100%Average Case 2019-2020 7.02 - 7.02 100%35.46 - 35.46 100%
Average Case 2020-2021 7.08 - 7.08 100%35.80 - 35.80 100%
Average Case 2021-2022 7.10 - 7.10 100%35.96 - 35.96 100%
Average Case 2022-2023 7.15 - 7.15 100%36.25 - 36.25 100%Average Case 2023-2024 7.21 - 7.21 100%36.55 - 36.55 100%
Average Case 2024-2025 7.26 - 7.26 100%36.79 - 36.79 100%
Average Case 2025-2026 7.31 - 7.31 100%37.06 - 37.06 100%Average Case 2026-2027 7.37 - 7.37 100%37.32 - 37.32 100%
Average Case 2027-2028 7.42 - 7.42 100%37.58 - 37.58 100%
Average Case 2028-2029 7.47 - 7.47 100%37.82 - 37.82 100%
Average Case 2029-2030 7.51 - 7.51 100%38.06 - 38.06 100%Average Case 2030-2031 7.55 - 7.55 100%38.27 - 38.27 100%
Average Case 2031-2032 7.59 - 7.59 100%38.47 - 38.47 100%
Average Case 2032-2033 7.64 - 7.64 100%38.66 - 38.66 100%Average Case 2033-2034 7.68 - 7.68 100%38.84 - 38.84 100%
Average Case 2034-2035 7.72 - 7.72 100%39.02 - 39.02 100%
Average Case 2035-2036 7.77 - 7.77 100%39.19 - 39.19 100%
Average Case 2036-2037 7.81 - 7.81 100%39.35 - 39.35 100%
Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 245
Appendix - Chapter 7

APPENDIX 7.2: ALTERNATE SUPPLY RESOURCES

Additional Resource Size Availability Notes
Unsubscribed GTN Capacity Up to 50,000 Dth Now Currently available unsubscribed capacity from Kingsgate to
Spokane
Medford Lateral Exp 50,000 Dth / Day 2019 Additional compression to facilitate more gas to flow from
mainline GTN to Medford
WA ID OR
$48 / Dth $40 / Dth $46 / Dth
WA ID OR
$13 / Dth $13 / Dth $13 / Dth
WA ID OR
$11 / Dth $11 / Dth $12 / Dth
WA ID OR
$34 / Dth $39 / Dth $33 / Dth
WA ID OR
$19 / Dth $18 / Dth $19 / Dth
WA ID OR
$38 / Dth $39 / Dth $38 / Dth
Plymouth LNG
241,700 Dth
w/70,500 Dth deliverability 2018
Provides for peaking services and alleviates the need for costly pipeline expansions
Pair with excess pipeline MDDO’s to create firm transport
Hydrogen 166 Dth / Day 2020
Cost estimates obtained from a consultant; levelized cost
includes revenue requirements, expected carbon adder and
assumed retail power rate
Renewable Natural Gas –
Distributed Landfill 635 Dth / Day
NWP Rate
2020
Costs estimates obtained from a consultant for each specific
type of RNG; levelized costs include revenue requirements,
distribution costs, and projected carbon intensity adder/(savings)
2020Renewable Natural Gas – Dairy 635 Dth / Day
Renewable Natural Gas – Waste
Water 513 Dth / Day 2020
2020298 Dth / DayRenewable Natural Gas – Food Waste to (RNG)
Renewable Natural Gas –
Centralized Landfill 1,814 Dth / Day
Cost/Rates
GTN Rate
$35M capital + GTN Rate
2020
Future Supply Resources Size Cost/Rates Availability Notes
Co. Owned LNG
600,000 Dth w/
150,000 of
deliverability
$75 Million plus
$2 Million annual
O&M
2024
On site, in service territory
liquefaction and vaporization
facility
Various pipelines – Pacific
Connector, Cross-Cascades, etc.Varies Precedent
Agreement Rates 2022
Requires additional mainline
capacity on NWPL or GTN to
get to service territory
Large Scale LNG Varies Commodity less
Fuel 2024 Speculative, needs pipeline
transport
In Ground Storage Varies Varies Varies
Requires additional mainline
transport to get to service
territory
Satellite LNG Varies $13M capital cost
plus 665k O&M 2022
provides for peaking services
and alleviates the need for
costly pipeline expansions.
$3,000 per m3 with O&M
assumed at 5.4%.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 246
APPENDIX 8.1: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING

OVERVIEW
The primary goal of distribution system planning is to design for present needs and to plan for future
expansion in order to serve demand growth. This allows Avista to satisfy current demand-serving
requirements, while taking steps toward meeting future needs. Distribution system planning identifies
potential problems and areas of the distribution system that require reinforcement. By knowing when and
where pressure problems may occur, the necessary reinforcements can be incorporated into normal
maintenance. Thus, more costly reactive and emergency solutions can be avoided.

COMPUTER MODELING
When designing new main extensions, computer modeling can help determine the optimum size facilities
for present and future needs. Undersized facilities are costly to replace, and oversized facilities incur
unnecessary expenses to Avista and its customers.

THEORY AND APPLICATION OF STUDY
Natural gas network load studies have evolved in the last decade to become a highly technical and useful
means of analyzing the operation of a distribution system. Using a pipeline fluid flow formula, a specified
parameter of each pipe element can be simultaneously solved. Through years of research, pipeline
equations have been refined to the point where solutions obtained closely represent actual system
behavior.

Avista conducts network load studies using GL Noble Denton’s Synergi® 4.8.0 software. This computer-
based modeling tool runs on a Windows operating system and allows users to analyze and interpret
solutions graphically.

CREATING A MODEL
To properly study the distribution system, all natural gas main information is entered (length, pipe
roughness and size) into the model. "Main" refers to all pipelines supplying services.
Nodes are placed at all pipe intersections, beginnings and ends of mains, changes in pipe
diameter/material, and to identify all large customers. A model element connects two nodes together.
Therefore, a "to node" and a "from node" will represent an element between those two nodes. Almost all
of the elements in a model are pipes.

Regulators are treated like adjustable valves in which the downstream pressure is set to a known value.
Although specific regulator types can be entered for realistic behavior, the expected flow passing through
the actual regulator is determined and the modeled regulator is forced to accommodate such flows.

FLUID MECHANICS OF THE MODEL
Pipe flow equations are used to determine the relationships between flow, pressure drop, diameter and
pipe length. For all models, the Fundamental Flow equation (FM) is used due to its demonstrated
reliability.
Efficiency factors are used to account for the equivalent resistance of valves, fittings and angle changes
within the distribution system. Starting with a 95 percent factor, the efficiency can be changed to fine tune
the model to match field results.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 247
Pipe roughness, along with flow conditions, creates a friction factor for all pipes within a system. Thus,
each pipe may have a unique friction factor, minimizing computational errors associated with generalized
friction values.

LOAD DATA
All studies are considered steady state; all natural gas entering the distribution system must equal the
natural gas exiting the distribution system at any given time.

Customer loads are obtained from Avista’s customer billing system and converted to an algebraic format
so loads can be generated for various conditions. Customer Management Module (CMM), an add-on
application for Synergi, processes customer usage history and generates a base load (non-temperature
dependent) and heat load (varying with temperature) for each customer.

In the event of a peak day or an extremely cold weather condition, it is assumed that all curtailable loads
are interrupted. Therefore, the models will be conducted with only core loads.

DETERMINING NATURAL GAS CUSTOMERS’ MAXIMUM HOURLY USAGE
DETERMINING DESIGN PEAK HOURLY LOAD
The design peak hourly load for a customer is estimated by adding the hourly base load and the hourly
heat load for a design temperature. This estimate reflects highest system hourly demands, as shown in
Table 1:

This method differs from the approach that is used for IRP peak day load planning. The primary reason
for this difference is due to the importance of responding to hourly peaking in the distribution system,
while IRP resource planning focuses on peak day requirements to the city gate.

APPLYING LOADS
Having estimated the peak loads for all customers in a particular service area, the model can be loaded.
The first step is to assign each load to the respective node or element.

GENERATING LOADS
Temperature-based and non-temperature-based loads are established for each node or element, thus loads
can be varied based on any temperature (HDD). Such a tool is necessary to evaluate the difference in flow
and pressure due to different weather conditions.

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS)
Several years ago Avista converted the natural gas facility maps to GIS. While the GIS can provide a
variety of map products, the true power lies in the analytical capabilities. A GIS consists of three
components: spatial operations, data association and map representation.

A GIS allows analysts to conduct spatial operations (relating a feature or facility to another
geographically). A spatial operation is possible if a facility displayed on a map maintains a relationship to
other facilities. Spatial relationships allow analysts to perform a multitude of queries, including:
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 248

number of customers assigned to particular pipes in Emergency Operating Procedure zones
(geographical areas defined to aid in the safe isolation in the event of an emergency)
-pressure pipeline proximity criteria

The second component of the GIS is data association. This allows analysts to model relationships
between facilities displayed on a map to tabular information in a database. Databases store facility
information, such as pipe size, pipe material, pressure rating, or related information (e.g., customer
databases, equipment databases and work management systems). Data association allows interactive
queries within a map-like environment.

Finally, the GIS provides a means to create maps of existing facilities in different scales, projections and
displays. In addition, the results of a comparative or spatial analysis can be presented pictorially. This
allows users to present complex analyses rapidly and in an easy-to-understand method.

BUILDING SYNERGI® MODELS FROM A GIS
The GIS can provide additional benefits through the ease of creation and maintenance of load studies.
Avista can create load studies from the GIS based on tabular data (attributes) installed during the mapping
process.

MAINTENANCE USING A GIS
The GIS helps maintain the existing distribution facility by allowing a design to be initiated on a GIS.
Currently, design jobs for the company’s natural gas system are managed through Avista’s Maximo tool.
Once jobs are completed, the as-built information is automatically updated on GIS, eliminating the need
to convert physical maps to a GIS at a later date. Because the facility is updated, load studies can remain
current by refreshing the analysis.

DEVELOPING A PRESENT CASE LOAD STUDY
In order for any model to have accuracy, a present case model has to be developed that reflects what the
system was doing when downstream pressures and flows are known. To establish the present case,
pressure recording instruments located throughout the distribution system are used.

These field instruments record pressure and temperature throughout the winter season. Various locations
recording simultaneously are used to validate the model. Customer loads on Synergi® are generated to
correspond with actual temperatures recorded on the instruments. An accurate model’s downstream
pressures will match the corresponding field instrument’s pressures. Efficiency factors are adjusted to
further refine the model's pressures and better match the actual conditions.

Since telemetry at the gate stations record hourly flow, temperature and pressure, these values are used to
validate the model. All loads are representative of the average daily temperature and are defined as hourly
flows. If the load generating method is truly accurate, all natural gas entering the actual system (physical)
equals total natural gas demand solved by the simulated system (model).

DEVELOPING A PEAK CASE LOAD STUDY
Using the calculated peak loads, a model can be analyzed to identify the behavior during a peak day. The
efficiency factors established in the present case are used throughout subsequent models.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 249
ANALYZING RESULTS
After a model has been balanced, several features within the Synergi® model are used to interpret results.
Color plots are generated to depict flow direction, pressure, and pipe diameter with specific break points.
Reinforcements can be identified by visual inspection. When user edits are completed and the model is re-
balanced, pressure changes can be visually displayed, helping identify optimum reinforcements.

PLANNING CRITERIA
In most instances, models resulting in node pressures below 15 psig indicate a likelihood of distribution
low pressure, and therefore necessitate reinforcements. For most Avista distribution systems, a minimum
of 15 psig will ensure deliverability as natural gas exits the distribution mains and travels through service
pipelines to a customer’s meter. Some Avista distribution areas operate at lower pressures and are
assigned a minimum pressure of 5 psig for model results. Given a lower operating pressure, service
pipelines in such areas are sized accordingly to maintain reliability.

DETERMINING MAXIMUM CAPACITY FOR A SYSTEM
Using a peak day model, loads can be prorated at intervals until area pressures drop to 15 psig. At that
point, the total amount of natural gas entering the system equals the maximum capacity before new
construction is necessary. The difference between natural gas entering the system in this scenario and a
peak day model is the maximum additional capacity that can be added to the system.

Since the approximate natural gas usage for the average customer is known, it can be determined how
many new customers can be added to the distribution system before necessitating system reinforcements.
The above models and procedures are utilized with new construction proposals or pipe reinforcements to
determine the potential increase in capacity.

FIVE-YEAR FORECASTING
The intent of the load study forecasting is to predict the system’s behavior and reinforcements necessary
within the next five years. Various Avista personnel provide information to determine where and why
certain areas may experience growth.
By combining information from Avista’s demand forecast, IRP planning efforts, regional growth plans
and area developments, proposals for pipeline reinforcements and expansions are evaluated with
Synergi®.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 250

Appendix 8.2

Oregon Public Utility Commission Order No. 16-109 (the Order) included the following
language:

Finally, as part of the IRP-vetting process and subsequent rate proceedings, we expect
that Avista conduct and present comprehensive analyses of its system upgrades. Such
analyses should provide: (1) a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of whether and when
the investment should be built; (2) evaluation of a range of alternative build dates and
the impact on reliability and customer rates; (3) credible evidence on the likelihood of
disruptions based on historical experience; (4) evidence on the range of possible
reliability incidents; (5) evidence about projected loads and customers in the area; and
(6) adequate consideration of alternatives, including the use of interruptibility or
increased demand-side measures to improve reliability and system resiliency.

In order to address this portion of the Order, Avista has prepared this appendix, which
includes documentation addressing the six points above for each of the natural gas
distribution system enhancements included in the 2018 Natural Gas Integrated Resource
Plan (IRP) for Avista’s Oregon service territory. Each of these three enhancement projects
represents a significant, discrete project which is out of the ordinary course of business (that
is to say, different from ongoing capital investment to address Federal or State regulatory
requirements, relocation of pipe or facilities as requested by others, failed pipe or facilities,
etc., all of which occur routinely over time and which are discussed below).

The routine, ongoing capital investments can be loosely classified in the following categories
(which are not mutually exclusive):

 Safety – Ongoing safety related capital investment includes the repair or replacement
of obsolete or failed pipe and facilities. This category includes, but is not necessarily
limited to, investment to address deteriorated or isolated steel pipe, cathodic
protection, and the replacement of pipeline which has been built over, as well as the
remedy of shallow pipe or the repair or replacement of leaking pipe.
 System Maintenance – Ongoing capital investment related to system maintenance
includes replacement of facilities or pipe that has reached the end of their useful
lives, as well as other general investment required to maintain Avista’s ability to
reliably serve customers.
 Relocation Requested by Others – Ongoing capital investment related to relocation
requested by others falls primarily into two categories, relocation requested by other
parties which is required under the terms of our franchise agreements (such as
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 251

relocations required to accommodate road or highway construction or relocation),
or relocation requested by customers or others (in which case the customer would
be responsible for the cost of the immediate request, but in which case Avista may
perform additional work, such as the replacement of a steel service with
polyethylene to reduce future maintenance or cathodic protection requirements on
that pipe).
 Mandated System Investment – Ongoing capital investment in this category is driven
by Federal or State regulatory requirements, such as investment that results from
TIMP/DIMP programs, among other programs.
Avista’s Aldyl-A replacement program has been addressed in substantial detail in Oregon
Public Utility Commission Docket UG-246, Avista/500-501.

Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 252
1 1
2018 Avista Natural Gas IRP
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
January 25, 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 253
2 2
Agenda
•Introductions & Logistics
•Safety Moment
•Purpose of IRP and Avista’s IRP Process
•System Wide Peak Day
•Avista’s Demand Overview and 2016 IRP Revisited
•Economic Outlook and Customer Count Forecast
•Demand Forecast Methodology
•Dynamic Demand Forecasting
•Demand Side Management
•Questions/Wrap Up
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 254
3 3
Safety Moment
Make it Safe, Make it Personal, Make it Home
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 255
4 4
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018:Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and future
potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018:DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
•June 1, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•June 29, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•July 2018 –TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 256
5 5
JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
31 01 02 03 04 05 06 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 25 26 27 28 01 02 03 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
28 29 30 31 01 02 03 25 26 27 28 01 02 03 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30 01 02 03 04 05
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
29 30 01 02 03 04 05 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 29 30 31 01 02 03 04
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
27 28 29 30 31 01 02 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 26 27 28 29 30 31 01
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
IRP Filing Date in ID, OR, WA
Draft IRP sections due to Tom by COB
2018
ETO & AEG DSM Analysis
2018 Avista Scenario Analysis
TAC Meetings
Draft Sent out/due for TAC Members
TAC 5 - if
necessary
IRP Calendar
TAC 1 TAC 2 TAC 3
TAC 4
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 257
6 6
Purpose of Integrated Resource
Planning
•Comprehensive long-range resource planning tool
•Fully integrates forecasted demand requirements with
potential demand side and supply side resources
•Process determines the least cost, risk adjusted
means for meeting demand requirements for our firm
residential, commercial and industrial customers
•Responsive to Idaho, Oregon and Washington rules
and/or orders
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 258
7 7
Avista’s IRP Process
•Comprehensive analysis bringing demand forecasting and
existing and potential supply-side and demand-side
resources together into a 20-year, risk adjusted least-cost
plan
•Considers:
–Customer growth and usage
–Weather planning standard
–Demand-side management opportunities
–Existing and potential supply-side resource options
–Risk
–Public participation through Technical Advisory Committee meetings
(TAC)
–Distribution upgrades
•2016 IRP filed in all three jurisdictions on
August 31, 2016 and acknowledgedAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 259
8 8
The Natural Gas System
My House
Pipeline
Receipt
Point
Delivery Point/
Gate Station
Storage
Gathering
System
Local
Distribution
System
Producer
Supply
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 260
9 9
Avista’s Demand Overview and 2016 IRP Re-
Visited
Tom Pardee
Manager of Natural Gas Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 261
1010
Avista’s Demand Overview
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 262
1111
–Population of service area 1.5 million
371,000 electric customers
348,000 natural gas customers
•Has one of the smallest carbon
footprints among America’s 100
largest investor-owned utilities
•Committed to environmental
stewardship and efficient use
of resources
Service Territory and Customer Overview
•Serves electric and natural gas customers in eastern Washington and northern Idaho,
and natural gas customers in southern and eastern Oregon
State Total Customers % of Total
Washington 163,000 47%
Oregon 102,000 29%
Idaho 83,000 24%
Total 348,000 100%Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 263
1212
2017 Customer Make Up and Demand Mix
Res
88.30%
Com
11.67%
Ind
0.03%
Oregon
Customer
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 264
1313
Seasonal Demand Profiles
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 265
1414
OR Daily Demand Profiles
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
De
k
a
t
h
e
r
m
s
Roseburg
Daily Demand
*Data is from 2006-2017Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 266
1515
WA-ID Daily Demand Profiles
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 267
1616
System Wide Peak Day
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 268
1717
January 5, 2017
AREA_CODE Min Max Average HDD
Spokane -3 14 6 59
La Grande -9 9 0 65
Klamath Falls -19 8 -6 71
Medford 14 32 23 42
Roseburg 19 35 27 38
Area Coldest in 20 Year
HDD
Coldest on Record
HDD
WA-ID 76 82
Klamath Falls 72 72
La Grande 74 74
Medford 54 61
Roseburg 48 55
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 269
1818
System Wide Peak Day –1/5/2017
313,000 Dth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 270
1919
System Wide Peak Day –1/5/2017 by
class
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 271
2020
Avista’s 2016 Natural Gas IRP Re-Visited
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 272
2121 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 273
2222 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 274
2323 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 275
2424 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 276
2525 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 277
2626 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 278
2727 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 279
2828
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 280
2929
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –Medford/Roseburg
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 281
3030
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –Klamath Falls
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 282
3131
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –La Grande
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 283
3232
Our Biggest Risk Last IRP
“Flat Demand” Risk
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 284
3333
2016 IRP Final
Action Items
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 285
3434
IPUC
•Staff believes public participation could be further
enhanced through “bill stuffers, public flyers, local media,
individual invitations, and other methods.”
•Result: Avista utilized it’s Regional Business Managers
in addition to digital communications and newsletters in
all states in order to try and gain more public
participation. Previous IRP’s relied on website data and
word of mouth.
–eCommunity newsletter was sent out on January 15, 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 286
3535
OPUC
•Staff Recommendation No. 1
–Staff recommends in Avista's 2018 IRP that Avista pursue an updated methodology, wherein
the low/high gas price curves continue to be based on low (high) historic prices in a Monte
Carlo setting, but are inflated to match the growth rate (yr/yr) of the expected price curve.
The resulting curves wouid be based on historic prices and also produce symmetric .risk
profiles throughout the time horizon.
•Staff Recommendation No. 2
–Staff recommends that Avista forecast its number of customers using at least two different
methods and to compare the accuracy of the different methods using actual data as a future
task in its next IRP.
–Result: Avista analyzed the data, but there was nothing material discovered the come up with
a meaningful forecast alternative.
•Staff Recommendation No. 3
–Avista's 2018 IRP will contain a dynamic DSM program structure in its analytics.
•In, prior IRPs, it was a deterministic method based on Expected Case assumptions, in
the 2018 IRP, each portion will have the ability to select conservation to meet unserved
customer demand, Avista will explore methods to enable a dynamic analytical process
for the evaluation of conservation potential within individual portfolios and will work with
Energy Trust of Oregon in the development of this process and in producing any final
results for its 2018 IRP for Oregon customers.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 287
3636
OPUC cont.
•Staff Recommendation No. 4
–Staff recommends that Avista provide Staff and stakeholders with updates
regarding its discussions and analysis regarding possible regional pipeline
projects that may move forward.
•Staff Recommendation No. 5
–Staff recommends that in its 2018 IRP process Avista work with Staff and
stakeholders to establish and complete stochastic analysis that considers a
range of alternative portfolios for comparison and consideration of both cost and
risk.
•Staff Recommendation No. 6
–Environmental Considerations
•1. Carbon Policy including federal and state regulations, specifically those
surrounding the Washington Clean Air Rule and federal Clean Power Plan;
•2. Weather analysis specific to Avista's service territories;
•3. Stochastic Modeling and supply resources; and
•4. Updated DSM methodology including the integration of ETO
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 288
3737
WUTC
•Include a section that discusses impacts of the Clean Air Rule (CAR).
–In its 2018 IRP expected case, Avista should model specific CAR impacts as well
as consider the costs and risk of additional environmental regulations, including a
possible carbon tax.
•Provide more detail on the company’s natural gas hedging strategy,
including information on upper and lower pricing points, transactions with
counterparties, and how diversification of the portfolio is achieved.
•Ensure that the entity performing the CPA evaluates and includes the
following information:
–All conservation measures excluded from the CPA, including those excluded
prior to technical potential determination
–The rationale for excluding any measure
–A description of Unit Energy Savings (UES) for each measure included in the
CPA, specifying how it was derived and the source of the data
–The rationale for any difference in economic and achievable potential savings,
including how the Company is working towards an achievable target of 85
percent of economic potential savings.
–A description of all efforts to create a fully-balanced cost effectiveness
metric within the planning horizon based on the TRC.Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 289
3838
WUTC cont.
•Discuss with the TAC:
–The results of Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA)
coordination, including non-energy benefits to include in the CPA.
–The appropriateness of listing and mapping all prospective distribution
system enhancement projects planned on the 20 year horizon, and
comparing actual projects completed to prospective projects listed in
previous IRP’s.
•Provide a rationale for any difference in economic and achievable
potential savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 290
3939
2017 –2018 Avista’s Action Plan
•The price of natural gas has dropped significantly since the 2014 IRP.This is primarily due to the
amount of economically extractable natural gas in shale formations,more efficient drilling
techniques,and warmer than normal weather.Wells have been drilled,but left uncompleted due
to the poor market economics.This is depressing natural gas prices and forcing many oil and
natural gas companies into bankruptcy.Due to historically low prices Avista will research market
opportunities including procuring a derivative based contract,10-year forward strip,and natural
gas reserves.
•Result:After exploring the opportunity of some type of reserves ownership,it was determined the
price as compared to risk of ownership was inappropriate to go forward with at this time.As an
ongoing aspect of managing the business,Avista will continue to look for opportunities to help
stabilize rates and/or reduce risk to our customers.
Monitor actual demand for accelerated growth to address resource deficiencies arising from exposure to “flat
demand”risk.This will include providing Commission Staff with IRP demand forecast-to-actual variance analysis
on customer growth and use-per-customer at least bi-annually.
Result:actual demand was closely tracked and shared with Commissions in semi-annual or quarterly meetings.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 291
4040
Ongoing Activities
•Continue to monitor supply resource trends including the availability
and price of natural gas to the region, LNG exports, methanol plants,
supply and market dynamics and pipeline and storage infrastructure
availability.
•Monitor availability of resource options and assess new resource
lead-time requirements relative to resource need to preserve
flexibility.
•Meet regularly with Commission Staff to provide information on
market activities and significant changes in assumptions and/or
status of Avista activities related to the IRP or natural gas
procurement practices.
•Appropriate management of existing resources including optimizing
underutilized resources to help reduce costs to customers.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 292
4141
Avista Natural Gas Forecasting
Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
[e-mail]
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 293
4242
Load Forecasts-Two Step Process
•First, forecast customers (C) by month by schedule (s) by
residential (r), commercial (c), industrial (i)—for example, Ct,y,s.r
•Forecast use per customer (U) by month by schedule by
class—for example, Ut,y,s.r
•Load forecast (L) is the product of the two:
Lt,y,s.r = Ct,y,s.r X Ut,y,s.r
For weather sensitive schedules a
20-yr MA defines normal weather.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 294
4343
The Basic Forecast Approach
Population Growth
Forecast
Residential Customer
Forecast ARIMA Model
Commercial Customer
ARIMA Forecast Model
Vary Population Growth
Assumptions
Firm Residential and
Commercial Firm Industrial
No Drivers
Forecast of no Significant
Growth
Vary “No Growth”
Assumption*
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 295
4444
System Industrial Customers, 2004-2017
No real change since January 2007
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 296
4545
Getting to Population as a Driver, 2018-2023 & 2024-2037
Average GDP Growth
Forecasts:
•IMF, FOMC,
Bloomberg, etc.
•Average forecasts
out 6-yrs.
Non-farm Employment
Growth Model:
•Model links year y, y-1, and
y-2 GDP growth to year y
regional employment
growth.
•Forecast out 6-yrs.
•Averaged with GI forecasts.
Regional Population Growth Models:
•Model links regional, U.S., and CA
year y-1 employment growth to year y
county population growth.
•Forecast out 6-yrs for Spokane, WA;
Kootenai, ID; and Jackson, OR.
•Averaged with IHS forecasts.
•Growth rates used to generate
population forecasts for customer
forecasts for residential schedules 101
and 410.
EMPGDP
2018-2023 For Spokane, WA; Kootenai,
ID, and Jackson, OR counties
OR Union, Klamath, and Douglas counties: IHS population growth forecasts for 2018-2037
Kootenai and Jackson: IHS population growth forecasts for 2024-2037
Spokane: OFM population growth forecasts for 2024-2037
Interpolation assumes: PN = P0erN
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 297
4646
The Relationship Between Classes
Customers Residential Commercial Industrial Load Residential Commercial Industrial
Residential 1.00 Residential 1.00
Commercial 0.80 1.00 Commercial 0.94 1.00
Industrial -0.38 -0.23 1.00 Industrial 0.21 0.24 1.00
Year-over-year Growth, Gas Correlations by Class, Jan. 2005-Jan 2016
Residential customer growth is approximately equal
to population growth in the long-run.
Commercial customer growth is highly correlated
with residential growth in the long-run.
Industrial’s correlation to residential is lower and
negative. Customer numbers stable or slightly
declining.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 298
4747
WA-ID Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and 2016 IRP
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
280,000
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
WA-ID Base 2016 WA-ID Base 2018
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.1%
2018 1.3%
≈ +16,500
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 299
4848
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
OR Base 2016 OR Base 2018
OR Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and 2016 IRP
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.1%
2018 0.9%
≈ -4,700
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 300
4949
Medford, OR Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and
2016 IRP
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
Medford Base 2016 Medford Base 2018
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.2%
2018 1.0%
≈ -3,800
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 301
5050
Roseburg, OR Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and
2016 IRP
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
Roseburg Base 2016 Roseburg Base 2018
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 0.9%
2018 1.0%
≈ -60
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 302
5151
Klamath, OR Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and
2016 IRP
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.2%
2018 1.0%
≈ -790
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 303
5252
La Grande, OR Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and
2016 IRP
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
La Grande Base 2016 La Grande Base 2018
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 0.5%
2018 0.5%
≈ -50
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 304
5353
System Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and 2016 IRP
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
WA-ID-OR Base 2016 WA-ID-OR Base 2018
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.1%
2018 1.2%
≈ +11,900
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 305
5454
WA-ID Region Firm Customer Range, 2018-2037
Variable Low
Growth
Base
Growth
High
Growth
WA-ID Customers 0.9%1.3%1.6%
WA Population 0.5%0.8%1.1%
ID Population 1.1%1.6%2.1%
WA-ID Population 0.6%0.9%1.3%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 306
5555
OR Region Firm Customer Range, 2018-2037
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
ORFIRMCUS Base ORFIRMCUS High ORFIRMCUS Low
Variable Low
Growth
Base
Growth
High
Growth
Customers 0.6%0.9%1.3%
Population 0.5%0.8%1.1%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 307
5656
System Firm Customer Range, 2018-2037
Variable Low
Growth
Base
Growth
High
Growth
Customers 0.8%1.2%1.5%
Population 0.5%0.9%1.2%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 308
5757
Summary of Growth Rates
System Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.2%1.6%0.9%
Commercial 0.7%1.0%0.3%
Industrial -0.3%2.2%-3.3%
Total 1.2%1.5%0.8%
WA Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.2%1.5%0.9%
Commercial 0.7%1.0%0.4%
Industrial -0.8%1.9%-3.1%
Total 1.2%1.5%0.8%
ID Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.5%2.0%1.0%
Commercial 0.6%1.1%0.1%
Industrial 0.1%1.7%-2.7%
Total 1.4%1.9%0.9%
OR Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.0%1.3%0.6%
Commercial 0.7%1.1%0.4%
Industrial 0.1%4.7%-7.8%
Total 0.9%1.3%0.6%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 309
5858
Forecasting with Permits or Housing Starts
•Potential data sources have poor coverage in our service territory or series
are not long enough. This is especially a problem for non-MSA areas like
Roseburg, Klamath, and La Grande.
•IHS has annual and quarterly housing start data only for MSAs. IHS’s MSA
housing starts are estimates:
“We then use the permits-to-starts ratio for the national and regional level from the Census that is
released every year to derive the starts.Unfortunately, until recently, the census only has these
ratios at the national and regional level. As a consequence, we use this ratio for any county, metro
and state within the region to derive our starts from.”
•Prior use of IHS housing start forecasts resulted in significant over
forecasting of customers.
•NAHB also produces a housing start series, but their data only covers fairly
large MSAs.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 310
5959
Estimating the IMPACT of LEAP in WA: Residential
Customers
WA IRP Residential
Change by 2037
2018 IRP with LEAP Less 2016 IRP +11,300
2018 IRP w/o LEAP Less 2016 IRP +2,200
LEAP Contribution +9,100
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 311
6060
Estimating the IMPACT of LEAP in WA: Residential
Growth Rates
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 312
6161
Demand Forecast Methodology
Tom Pardee
Manager of Natural Gas Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 313
6262
(CDD)
(HDD)
Temp
(℉)
Degree
Days
100 =35
90 =25
80 =15
70 =5
65 =0
60 =5
50 =15
40 =25
30 =35
20 =45
10 =55
0 =65
-10 =75
-20 =85
Temperature & Degree Days
Cooling
Degree Days
Heating
Degree Days
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 314
6363
Natural Gas Demand Forecasting
Financial
Planning and
Analysis
Resource
Accounting Gas Supply Rates Regulatory
Staff
Industry
Stakeholders
Average
Demand
Procurement
Planning
PGA Corporate
Budget
IRP
Peak Day
Planning
IRP
Scenario
Analysis
Other
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 315
6464
Weather
•NOAA 20 year actual average daily HDD’s (1998-
2017)
•Peak weather includes two winter storms (5 day
duration), one in December and one in February
•Planning Standard –coldest day on record
•Sensitivity around planning standard including
–Normal/Average
–Coldest in 20 years
–Monte Carlo simulation
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 316
6565
The Use per Customer Forecast cont.
•Historical data is used to determine initial base and heat
coefficients.
•Adjustments are made to incorporate DSM and price
elastic responses.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 317
6666
Residential –UPC and Weather
97% Correlated 65% Correlated
71% Correlated
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 318
6767
Residential –UPC and Weather
71% Correlated
83% Correlated
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 319
6868
Base Coefficients
July and August AverageAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 320
6969
Demand Modeling Equation –a closer look
SENDOUT® requires inputs expressed in the below format to
compute daily demand in dekatherms. The base and weather
sensitive usage (degree-day usage) factors are developed
outside the model and capture a variety of demand usage
assumptions.
# of customers x Daily weather sensitive usage / customer
# of customers x Daily base usage / customer
Plus
Table 3.2 Basic Demand Formula
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 321
7070
1.Expected customer count forecast by each of the 5 areas
2.Use per customer coefficients –Flat all classes,5 year, 3 year or last year
average use per HDD per customer
3.Weather planning standard –coldest day on record
WA/ID 82; Medford 61; Roseburg 55; Klamath 72; La Grande 74
Developing a Reference Case
Customer
count
forecast
Use per
customer
coefficients
Weather Reference
Case Demand
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 322
7171
Dynamic Demand Methodology
Tom Pardee
Manager of Natural Gas Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 323
7272
Dynamic Demand Methodology
Demand Influencing
–Conditions that DIRECTLY
affect core customer
volume consumed
Price Influencing
–PRICE SENSITIVE
conditions that, through price
elasticity, INDIRECTLY affect
core customer volume
consumed
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 324
7373
Demand
Customer Growth
•New Construction
•Conversion/Direct Use
•Economy
Customer Mix Shifts
•Res/Com/Ind
•Core vs. Transport
•Interruptible
Weather
•Normal
•Planning Standard
•Other
Technology
•Increased
efficiency/DSM
•New Uses
•Demand Response
3rd Party Demand
Trends
•Thermal Generation
•Non-Core Customer
•LNG Exports Supply Trends
•Conventional vs.
Unconventional
•Canadian Imports
•LNG
Pipeline Trends
•Regional Pipeline
Projects
•National Pipeline
Projects
•International Pipeline
Projects
Other
•Storage
•Climate Change
Legislation
•Energy Correlations
(i.e. oil and gas)
Demand Drivers
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 325
7474
Customer Growth and Mix –Demand
Influencing
•Key driver in demand growth
•Can change the timing and/or location of resource
needs
•Currently we model expected, high, and low growth
scenarios
•New construction vs. conversions
•Residential/Commercial/Industrial vs. Transportation
•New uses –CNG/NGV
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 326
7575
Weather Standard –Demand Influencing
•Has the potential to significantly change timing of
resource needs
•Significant qualitative considerations
–No infrastructure response time if standard
exceeded
–Significant safety and property damage risks
•Current Peak HDD Planning Standards
–WA/ID 82
–Medford 61
–Roseburg 55
–Klamath 72
–La Grande 74
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 327
7676
Technology –Demand Influencing
•Demand side management initiatives will reduce
demand HOWEVER, it is dependent upon customers
willingness/ability to participate.
•Development of new uses for natural gas
•CNG
•NGV
•LNG
•???NG
•Demand response (Smart Grid)
•New technologies in Demand Side Management
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 328
7777
Price Elasticity Factors Defined
•Price elasticity is usually expressed as a numerical factor
that defines the relationship of a consumer’s consumption
change in response to price change.
•Typically, the factor is a negative number as consumers
normally reduce their consumption in response to higher
prices or will increase their consumption in response to
lower prices.
•For example, a price elasticity factor of -0.13 means:
–A 10% price increase will prompt a 1.3% consumption
decrease
–A 10% price decrease will prompt a 1.3%
consumption increaseAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 329
7878
Price Elasticity
•Establishes factors for use in other price influencing
scenarios
•Very complex relationship –we use historical data
however……
•Historical data has DSM, rate changes (PGA,
general rate, etc.), economic conditions,
technological changes, etc.
•History is not necessarily the best predictor of future
behavior
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 330
7979
Price Elasticity Assumptions
From 2018 IRP
Elasticity
Assumption
Real Price annual increase
within 30%
High Negative .20
Expected Negative .10
Low No response
Expected Elasticity is derived from Medford and
Roseburg and applied to all areasAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 331
8080
3rd Party Demand Trends –Price Influencing
•Gas fired generation
•Coal plant retirements driving gas for power
•CNG/NGV Transportation Fleets
•Export LNG
•Non-firm customer trends
•Mexico Exports
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 332
8181
Supply Trends –Price Influencing
•Shale is Everywhere
•LNG Export
•Associated gas from Oil –
25% of overall US
production
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 333
8282
Pipeline Trends –Price Influencing
•Regional Pipeline Proposals
•Sumas Express
•Pacific Connector –from Jordan
Cove LNG
•Trail West/N-Max (GTN to NWP –
Molalla area)
•National Pipeline Proposals
•International Pipeline Proposals
•T-South Looping
•NGTL Westpath Expansion
•Southern Crossing Expansion
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 334
8383
Other Supply Issues –Price Influencing
•Storage
•Climate Change and Carbon Legislation
•Energy Correlations
•Extraction cost
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 335
8484
Demand and
Supply Side
Sensitivities
Optimize
Resource
Portfolio
Stochastic
Cost/Risk Analysis
Prices and
Weather
Highest
Performing
Portfolios
selection
Preferred
Portfolio
selection
Core Cases Price Forecast
Sensitivities, Scenarios, Portfolios
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 336
8585
Sensitivities for 2018 IRP
Reference
Reference Plus
Peak Low Cust High Cust
No Conversion
to natural gas Alternate DSM Peak plus DSM Demand Desctruction Demand Destruction Alternate Historical Expected Low High Carbon
Case Case Growth Growth Growth Weather Std Case Case Reference Case Reference Plus Peak UPC Case Elasticity Prices Prices Legislation
Customer Growth Rate Reference Reference Plus Low Growth High Growth
Reference minus
LEAP Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference
Use per Customer 3 Year Historical 3 Year Historical 3 Year
Historical
3 Year
Historical
3 Year Historical 3 Year
Historical
3 Year
Historical
3 Year Historical 3 Year Historical less
demand destruction
3 Year Historical less
demand destruction
5 Year Historical 3 Year
Historical
3 Year
Historical
3 Year
Historical
3 Year Historical
Weather
Planning Standard 20 Year Normal Coldest on Record
Coldest on
Record
Coldest on
Record Coldest on Record
Coldest in
20yrs Normal
Coldest on
Record Normal Coldest on Record Coldest on Record
Coldest on
Record
Coldest on
Record
Coldest on
Record Coldest on Record
Demand Side Management
Programs Included No No No No No No Expected Expected No No No No No No No
Prices
Price curve Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Low High High/Medium/Low
Price curve adder ($/Dth)None None None None None None None None None None None High/Medium/Low
Elasticity None None None None None None None None None None None Expected Expected Expected Expected
DEMAND INFLUENCING - DIRECT PRICE INFLUENCING - INDIRECT
INPUT ASSUMPTIONS
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 337
8686
2018 Natural Gas IRP
DSM -Energy Efficiency
Amber Gifford & Ryan Finesilver
First Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
January 25, 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 338
8787
Demand Side Management (DSM)
The process of helping customers use energy more
efficiently.
The term DSM is used interchangeably with Energy
Efficiency and Conservation.
DSM Programs benefit the IRP by contributing to the
deferral of plant assets.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 339
8888
Team Roles
DSM Planning
& Analytics
Team
Applied Energy
Group (AEG)Gas Supply
Oregon DSM Programs
ACP CPA IRP
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 340
8989
Who DSM Serves
•Washington
•Idaho
•Oregon (ETO except
for Low-Income)
Three
Jurisdictions
•Residential
•Industrial/Commercial
•Low-Income
Residential
Multiple
Customer
Segments
•Aids in reducing
overall capacity
•Defers capital
investments
The
Company’s
Infrastructure
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 341
9090
DSM Funding –Natural Gas
$8.5 Million
Annual
Funding
(2017)
Tariff percentage of customer bill by state:
2.1%
3.7%
3%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 342
9191
WA Gas Targets to Actual Savings
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Business Plan Target 637,042 602,010 567,653 620,310 719,451
IRP Target 1,310,000 1,287,000 737,000 489,110 612,830
Actual 615,418 919,892 548,756 889,776
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Th
e
r
m

S
a
v
i
n
g
s
Business Plan Target IRP Target Actual
Figures exclude the negative impact to therm
savings due to fuel conversions.
2014 & 2015 target variance due to commodity
price decrease. Cost-effectiveness shift to UCT.
2015 large increase in actuals is due to multiple
large non-res projects coming to completion.
2017 Actuals are Unverified
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 343
9292
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Business Plan Target 0 0 232,737 219,272 252,712
IRP Target 456,000 228,000 114,000 197,640 246,440
Actual 0 0 189,295 245,747
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Th
e
r
m

S
a
v
i
n
g
s
Business Plan Target IRP Target Actual
No Gas Programs in 2014 or 2015
2017 Actuals are Unverified
2018 Business Plan -DRAFT
*Figures exclude the negative impact to
therm savings due to fuel conversions.
No

G
a
s

P
r
o
g
r
a
m
s
No

G
a
s

P
r
o
g
r
a
m
s
ID Gas Targets to Actual Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 344
9393
DSM Business Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 345
9494
Conservation Potential Assessment
(CPA)
•Primary Objectives
–Meet legislative and regulatory requirements
–Support integrated resource planning
–Identify opportunities for savings; key measures in
target segments
•Key Deliverables
–20-year conservation potential
–Individual measures
–IRP target
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 346
9595
Conservation Potential Assessment
•Theoretical upper limit of conservation
•All efficiency measures are phased in regardless of cost
Technical
Potential
•Realistically achievable, accounting for adoption rates
and how quickly programs can be implemented
•Does not consider cost-effectiveness of measures
Achievable
Technical
Potential
•Includes economic screening of measures (cost
effectiveness)
•Informs our IRP Target
Achievable
Potential
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 347
9696
Business Planning Process
Business
Planning
Annual
Conservation
Plan
EM&V
Annual
Conservation
Report
Conservation
Potential
Assessment
Adaptive
Management
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 348
9797
Business Planning Process
CPA
•Sets overall
Savings Goal
•Identifies
Measures
Avista Programs
•Consult with
our existing
programs
•Add new
measures to
existing
programs
Update and
Evaluate
•Update
existing
savings
values
•Test for Cost-
Effectiveness
(UCT)
Feedback and
Modify
•DSM
Program
Managers
•Engineers
•Industry
Trends
•Other Parties
Energy Efficiency Advisory Group
Business Planning Process
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 349
9898
Incentive Setting
Decide Incentive Level
$3 per
Therm
70% of
CIC
UCT
Impact
Portfolio
Alignment
Cost-Effective Test
Utility Cost Test (UCT)Must have a UCT of 1.0
or Higher
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 350
9999
Significant Costs and Benefits
From Cost-effectiveness training (3/6/15) Powerpoint
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/General.aspx?id=5267
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 351
100100
Questions?
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 352
101101
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 :Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and future
potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018:DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
•June 1, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•June 29, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•July 2018 –TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 353
1
2018 Avista Natural Gas IRP
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
February 22, 2018
Spokane, WA
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 354
22
Agenda
2
Time Length Topic
9:30 AM 10 minutes Introductions & Logistics
9:40 AM 10 minutes Safety Moment
9:50 AM 30 minutes Weather Analysis
10:20 AM 60 minutes Market dynamics
11:20 AM 10 minutes break
11:30 AM 30 minutes Procurement Planning
12:00 PM 60 minutes Lunch
1:00 PM 30 minutes Emissions and Clean Air Rule
1:30 PM 30 minutes Carbon policies
2:00 PM 45 minutes Price forecasts and Carbon Adders
2:45 PM 15 minutes wrap-up
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 355
33
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 :Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and future
potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018:DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
•June 1, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•June 29, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•July 2018 –TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
3
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 356
44
Safety Moment
•Cold Weather Slips
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 357
5
Weather Analysis
Kaylene Schultz
5
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 358
6
Coldest on Record Dates
WA/ID –December 30, 1968
Medford –December 9, 1972
Roseburg –December 22, 1990
Klamath Falls –December 8, 2013
La Grande –December 23,1983
Area Coldest in 20 Year
HDD
Coldest on Record
HDD
WA-ID 76 82
Klamath Falls 72 72
La Grande 74 74
Medford 54 61
Roseburg 48 55
Planning Standard Assumptions
6
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 359
7 *1947 -2017
Spokane
7
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 360
8
Medford
*1928 -20178
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 361
9
La Grande
*1949 -20179
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 362
10
Klamath Falls
HDD's
Min 5,334
Max 7,548
Avg. 6,584
Stdev 426
2017 6,760
*1928 -201710
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 363
11
Roseburg
*1931 -201711
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 364
1212
Temperature Anomaly Distribution
Source: Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (2010), Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004,
doi:10.1029/2010RG000345. This research has been updated and can be found at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_17/.
Temperature anomaly distribution:The frequency of occurrence (vertical axis)of local
temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 mean)in units of local standard deviation
(horizontal axis).Area under each curve is unity.Image credit:NASA/GISS.
NASA Temperature Anomaly Distribution for Northern Hemisphere
Normal Distribution: Base Reference Period 1951-1980
12
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 365
1313
Spokane
13
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 366
1414
Medford
14
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 367
1515
La Grande
15
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 368
1616
Klamath Falls
16
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 369
1717
Roseburg
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 370
18
Market Dynamics
Tom Pardee
Manager of Natural Gas Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 371
19 19
Assumptions about the size of U.S. resources and the
improvement in technology affect domestic oil and natural
gas prices—
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2030 2050
North Sea Brent oil price
2017 dollars per barrel
2017
history projections
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2030 2050
Henry Hub natural gas price
2017 dollars per million Btu
2017
history projections Low Oil and Gas
Resource and
Technology
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price
High Oil and Gas
Resource and
Technology
Source: EIA AEO 201819
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 372
20
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
$
/

D
t
h
Henry Hub Forecast
(Nominal $)
Historic Consultant 1
Nominal Henry Hub
Consultant 2
Nominal Henry Hub
Forwards EIA 2018 AEO
Forecast
20
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 373
212121
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 374
2222
US Storage
22
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 375
232323
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 376
24 24
Industrial and electric power demand drives natural gas
consumption growth—
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Natural gas consumption by sector
trillion cubic feet
electric power
industrial
transportation
commercial
residential
billion cubic feet per day2017
history projections
Source: EIA AEO 201824
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 377
25 25
The United States is a net natural gas exporter in the
Reference case because of near-term export growth and
continued import decline —
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
28
-5
0
5
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Natural gas trade
trillion cubic feet
2017
history projections liquefied
natural gas
(LNG)
Mexico
(pipeline)
Canada
(pipeline)
Canada
(pipeline)
LNG
billion cubic feet per day
exports
imports
Source: EIA AEO 201825
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 378
2626
Exports
26
Reference Case: 23 Bcf per day by 2050
Driven by LNG and Mexico Exports
Source: EIA AEO 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 379
2727
Mexico Exports
3.77 Bcf/d average
27
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 380
2828
US LNG Projects
28 https://www.ferc.gov/industries/gas/indus-act/lng/lng-existing.pdf
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 381
292929
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 382
30
What Drives the Natural Gas Market?
Natural Gas Spot Prices (Henry Hub)
Supply
–Type: Conventional vs.
Non-conventional
–Location
–Cost
Demand
–Residential/Commercial/I
ndustrial
–Power Generation
–Natural Gas Vehicles
Legislation
–Environmental
Energy Correlations
–Oil vs. Gas
–Coal vs. Gas
–Natural Gas Liquids
Weather
Storage
30
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$/Dth Historic Henry Hub Cash Prices
Winter Weather Event
???
Hurricanes
Rita and
Katrina
Polar Vortex
East Coast
Winter
Weather
Event
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 383
31
Short Term Market Perspective
31
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 384
3232
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 385
3333
TransCanada System
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 386
34
•AECO –Empress
•Capacity through this corridor has been reduced over the years as
production has moved north and west, reducing pressure
•Newly contracted mainline firm contracts have used up
uncontracted capacity
•Storage owners (mainly between AECO and Empress) rely on IT
to inject/withdraw
•James River –ABC
•TransCanada has upgraded the capacity of the gathering system
north of James river.
•Capacity for JR-ABC remains limited to 2.3 bcf/d while GTN has
room for up to 2.9 bdf/d.
34
Sources of Congestion
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 387
35
•Demand:
•Incremental expansions in 2018, 2019 and 2020 will increase
James River –ABC capacity by roughly 700 mmcf/d to match
GTN takeaway capacity.
•Oil sands expansion expected to increase demand as several
new projects come on line in 2018.
•Talk of AECO –Empress expansion. Thus far no action.
•Supply:
•Sustained low prices have already led to a decrease in producer
CAPEX budgets for 2018 and 2019.
35
How will Alberta supply/demand rebalance?
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 388
36
Canadian Supply
Source: https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2018/02-02rssrrd-eng.html36
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 389
37
Natural Gas Rig Count
181 Active Rigs
37
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 390
38
Rig Type
Source: http://www.uncoverenergy.com/the-will-to-drill/38
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 391
39
US drilling
*Appalachia Production per rig increase
of almost 3500%per rig since Jan. 2007
7 Major drilling regions in US
Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling39
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 392
40
Rig efficiency and production
Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling40
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 393
41
*Almost 29 Bcf/d waiting to come online
Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/xls/duc-data.xlsx
*Bcf per day estimate is from estimated production per well as of Dec ‘1741
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 394
42
Break (10 minutes)
42
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 395
43
Procurement Planning
Tom Pardee, Manager of Natural Gas Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 396
4444
Procurement Plan Philosophy
•Mission
•To provide a diversified portfolio of reliable
supply and a level of price certainty in volatile
markets.
•We cannot accurately predict what natural gas prices will do, however we
can use experience, market intelligence, and fundamental market analysis to
structure and guide our procurement strategies.
•Our goal is to develop a plan that utilizes customer resources (storage and
transportation), layers in pricing over time for stability (time averaging),
allows discretion to take advantage of pricing opportunities should they arise,
and appropriately manages risk.
44
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 397
4545
Oversight and Control
Risk Management
Committee
•Comprised of Executive Officers
& Sr. Management
•Responsible for the Risk
Management Policy
•Provides oversight and guidance
on natural gas procurement
plan
Strategic
Oversight
Group
•Cross functional group
consisting of:
•Credit, Electric/Gas Supply,
Rates, Resource
Accounting, Risk
•Co-develops the
Procurement Plan
•Meets regularly
Natural Gas
Supply
•Monitors and manages the
Procurement Plan on a daily
basis
•Leads in the annual
Procurement Plan review
and modification
Commission
Update
•Semi-Annual Update
•New Procurement Plan is
communicated semi-
annually in the fall and
spring
•Intra-year changes
communicated to staff on an
ad-hoc basis
•
45 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 398
46
Review conducted with SOG includes:
•Mission statement and approach
•Current and future market dynamics
•Hedge type and percentage
•Resources available (i.e. storage and
transportation)
•Hedge windows (how many, how long)
•Long term hedging approach
•Storage utilization
•Analysis (volatility, past performance, scenarios,
etc.)
•Market opportunities
Comprehensive Review of Previous Plan
46
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 399
4747
A Thorough Evaluation of Risks
Risk
Assessment
Load
Volatility
•Seasonal
Swings
Price
•Cash vs.
Forward
Market
Liquidity
•Is there
enough?
Counterparty
•Who can we
transact with?
Foreign
Currency
•What’s our
exposure?
Legislation
•Does it impact
our plan?
47
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 400
4848
Procurement Plan Structure
•The procurement plan incorporates a portfolio approach
that is diversified in terms of:
–Components: The plan utilizes a mix of index, fixed price, and storage
transactions.
–Transaction Dates:Hedge windows are developed to distribute the
transactions throughout the plan.
–Supply Basins:Plan to primarily utilize AECO, execute at lowest price basis
at the time.
–Delivery Periods:Hedges are completed in annual and/or seasonal
timeframes. Long-term hedges may be executed.
•Transactions are executed pursuant to a plan and
process; however, the procurement plan allows Avista to
be flexible to market conditions and opportunistic when
appropriate.
48
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 401
4949
Avista’s Procurement Plan Composition
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 402
5050
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 403
5151
Procurement Plan
•Window mechanism with upper and lower bands
that will adjust to the price of the current month
of gas depending on the volatility and length of
the window.
•We hedge out up to 36 months from prompt
month
–Market is liquid during this timeframe on ICE
•Intercontinental Exchange
•46% of annual firm customer load hedged within
plan.
51
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 404
5252
Hedge window Example
# Days of open window
End of
Hedge Period
Forward Price
Price Ceiling (will adjust with volatility)
Price Floor (will adjust with volatility)
Starts from
previous
day index price
46% Hedges would run
through this mechanism
52
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 405
5353
Risk Responsive Hedging Tool
(in development)
•Incorporates monthly financial positions, along with
market volatility to determine VaR
•The RRHT is in addition to programmatic hedging
•Inputs: all utility purchase/sale transactions, estimated
customer load, storage injections and withdrawals
•Currently in testing/evaluation phase
•Anticipate reducing the amount hedged
programmatically
53
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 406
5454
Storage Optimization
•Utilize our Jackson Prairie facility to arbitrage spreads
between daily and future gas prices.
•Maintain a peak day capability in order to serve needed
demand from the facility during a peak event.
•Historic value of storage (Intrinsic)
–buy in the summer when prices are historically lower and storing this
gas until the winter when prices are historically higher
•We optimize storage by locking in spreads between any
month during the program horizon.
54
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 407
5555
Transportation
Optimization
AECO to MALIN
Demand $.45
Cost to transport .10
*AECO = $1.45
MALIN = $2.00
$.55 -$.10 = $.45
Lowered cost to
ratepayers by $.45
This is referred to as a
location spread.
Malin
AECO
*2/10/1655
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 408
56
Transport Optimization -GTN
56
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 409
57
Why do we optimize?
•Combine all optimization to create more value
•Optimization has the following effects on rates:
–WA/ID
For every $2.5M of optimization, rates
decrease by ~1%
–OR
For every $1M of optimization, rates
decrease by ~1%
57
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 410
58
Lunch –60 Minutes
58
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 411
59
Emissions
Tom Pardee
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 412
60
Avista and Carbon
Avista President Dennis Vermillion:
“We are fortunate that Washington, with its abundance of renewable hydropower
generation, is already among the cleanest states in the country, but that doesn’t
mean we can’t do more. Legislation that appropriately balances the interests of
our customers, the economy, and the environment can effectively get us there.
“Under the Governor’s proposed climate change legislation, electric and natural
gas utilities will have the ability to invest the carbon tax. Avista welcomes the
opportunity to work with the Governor and the Legislature on an approach that
supports our customer’s needs, creates technological advances, and considers
the economic impact, even beyond the state’s borders, with the goal to improve
our environment.”
60
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 413
61
BLM rule repeal
•Trump administration repealed a hydraulic fracturing regulations
covering oil and gas wells on federal and tribal lands.
•The repeal, which took effect Dec. 29, 2017
•required producers to obtain BLM approval of fracturing operations,
verify cementing, conduct pressure tests, and list non-proprietary
fracturing chemicals on FracFocus.
•The rule, finalized in 2015, never took effect, following a stay
imposed by the U.S. District Court for Wyoming, which ruled in 2016
that BLM lacked authority to adopt the regulation.
61
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 414
62
Natural Gas vs. Coal emissions
•IEA assumes a tonne of methane = 28 –36
tonnes of CO2 when considering its impact
over a 100-year timeframe
•For gas to have higher emissions than coal,
we calculate that more than 10-11% of the
produced gas would need to be lost along
the value chain assuming a 100 year Global
Warming Potential (GWP).
•This is equal to 35 bcfd
–Almost ¾ of the daily European demand or ½ US
demand.
Source: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/do-fugitive-emissions-of-
methane-make-natural-gas-more-emissions-intensive-than-coal62
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 415
63
Natural Gas vs. Coal emissions cont.
•Losses are assumed to
be from direct leakage
into atmosphere in the
form of methane.
•If Shell had an
estimated10.5% loss of
it’s production it would
lose over $1 billion a
year in profits and $12.5
billion in corporate value.
Source: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/do-fugitive-emissions-of-
methane-make-natural-gas-more-emissions-intensive-than-coal63
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 416
646464
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 417
65
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
On April 17, 2012, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued cost-
effective regulations to reduce harmful air pollution from the oil and natural gas
industry.
A key component of the final rules is expected to yield a nearly 95 percent reduction in
Volatile Organic Compounds emitted from more than 11,000 new hydraulically
fractured gas wells each year. This significant reduction would be accomplished
primarily through the use of a proven process –known as a “reduced emissions
completion” or “green completion” --to capture natural gas that currently escapes to
the air.
In a green completion, special equipment separates gas and liquid hydrocarbons from
the flowback that comes from the well as it is being prepared for production. The gas
and hydrocarbons can then be treated and used or sold, avoiding the waste of natural
resources that cannot be renewed.
65
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 418
6666
Natural Gas STAR Program
•EPA pollution prevention
•The Natural Gas STAR Program provides a framework
for partner companies with U.S. oil and gas operations to
implement methane reducing technologies and practices
and document their voluntary emission reduction
activities. By joining the Program, partners commit to:
–1) evaluate their methane emission reduction opportunities,
–2) implement methane reduction projects where feasible,
–3) annually report methane emission reduction actions to the
EPA.
•https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016
06/documents/partnerlist.pdf
66
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 419
6767
Natural Gas STAR Methane Challenge
Program –Avista
•Avista Utilities has agreed to pursue a Best Management Practice
(BMP) commitment in the NG Distribution-Excavation Damages
category.
•Avista plans for continuous improvement in reducing dig in damages
and has been pursuing a program for reducing such damages since
2007. This program has no scheduled end date and Avista is
committed to achieving the lowest possible dig in rates in our service
areas.
•Avista accumulates the number of dig-in damages that occur within
each natural gas operating district on a monthly basis.The number
of locate tickets generated in each of these districts are tallied also
by district and by month.A report is generated which then details
the number of dig-in damages per 1000 locate tickets for each
district.
67
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 420
6868
Avista Locates vs Dig In’s
68
82,666
70,599
75,113
69,547
80,629
92,190
99,635 103,574
108,897
609
528
619
552 517 494 514
474 509
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nu
m
b
e
r

o
f

L
o
c
a
t
e
s
Nu
m
b
e
r

o
f

D
i
g

I
n
s
Year
Company Wide: Locates vs Dig In's
Locates Damages
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 421
696969
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
7.4
7.5
8.2
7.9
6.4
5.36
5.16
4.58
4.67
Damages
Ye
a
r
Damages per 1000 locates
Avista Locates vs Dig In’s
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 422
70
Fracking
*For more information go to https://fracfocus.org/
•Fracking remains a potential risk
if more robust data shows higher
than known emissions or
environmental pollution is caused
by hydraulic fracking. This may
cause more policies to be put in
place making drilling less
economic or halt production all
together is some areas.
•*Most companies report the
chemicals used in the process of
hydraulically fractured wells.
Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2
PBCTXHqZec&feature=share&list=
UUMdjBoSXSeV38gd3xCparmA
70
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 423
71
Clean Air Rule
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 424
7272
Terms
•"Emission reduction unit" or "ERU" is an accounting
unit representing the emission reduction of one metric
ton of CO2e.
•Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are tradable,
non-tangible energy commodities in the United States
that represent proof that 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) of
electricity was generated from an eligible renewable
energy resource (renewable electricity) and was fed into
the shared system of power lines which transport energy.
1 ERU = 2.25 RECs72
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 425
7373
Overview
•In 2015, Governor Inslee directed the Department of Ecology to
develop the Clean Air Rule (CAR) to cap and reduce carbon
emissions under Washington’s Clean Air Act authority.
•Includes entities with 100,000 metric tons of CO2e emissions
annually and lowers the threshold to 70,000 metric tons by 2035.
•Covers natural gas distributors and power plants, as well as other
facilities –baseline will be set by Ecology using five years of data
due on March 31, 2017. (2012-2016)
•The CAR went into effect on October 17, 2016.
•Annual emission reductions will equal:
–1.7% of baseline CO2e emissions
–5% over the three year compliance period
–Reductions are shown by banking emissions reduction units (ERUs) in the registry
73
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 426
7474
Overview cont.
•ERU must originate from reductions in Washington unless derived
from allowances and must be retired when used for compliance
•Generate ERUs by:
–Actual emissions reductions beyond annual compliance requirements
–Emission reduction projects, programs or activities
•ERU banking –10 Year Banking Provision
•Exchange ERUs through established registry
•Kaiser is excluded from Avista’s emissions baseline
74
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 427
7575
Activities and programs recognized as
generating ERU’s
•Transportation activities;
•Combined heat and power activities;
•Energy activities;
•Livestock and agricultural activities;
•Waste and wastewater activities;
•Industrial sector activities;
•Certain Energy Efficiency Site Evaluation Council
(EFSEC) recognized emission reductions; and
•Ecology approved emission reductions
75
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 428
7676
Percentage Limits on Use of Allowances
per compliance period
Compliance Period Upper Limit
2017-22 100%
2023-25 50%
2026-28 25%
2029-31 15%
2032-34 10%
2035 and beyond 5%
76
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 429
7777
CAR Allowances
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
MT
C
O
2
e
# of Needed ERUs Max Allowances
77
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 430
7878
Avista WA CAR goal
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
MT
C
O
2
e
# of Needed ERUs Avista WA CO2e…CAR Goal
78
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 431
7979
Potential Supply for CAR compliance
•RNG
•Solar
•Wind
•DSM
•Gas Customers, without a reduction in use,
would likely be required to purchase electric
generation resources in Washington State to
offset emissions.
79
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 432
80
2018 Natural Gas IRP
Carbon Policy Overview
John Lyons, Ph.D.
Second Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
February 22, 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 433
8181
Carbon Laws and Regulations
•Big changes at the federal level with the Trump administration
•More activity at the state and local levels
•Three main areas for carbon emissions:
1.Regulatory mandates
2.Cap and trade programs
3.Carbon taxes
•Focus still on electric generation, but many states are
expanding to natural gas and other fuels
81 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 434
8282
Federal
•Current federal focus under a regulatory model through the
Clean Air Act (CAA)
•Clean Power Plan (CPP) –reduce greenhouse gas emissions
from covered existing power plants 32 percent below 2005
levels by 2030 under section 111(d) of the CAA.
–Regulates power generation, but would impact natural gas use.
–CPP stayed by US Supreme Court on February 9, 2016 and oral
arguments June 2, 2016 at DC Circuit Court of Appeals.
–April 4, 2017, EPA announced review to determine a new
proceeding to “suspend, revise or rescind the Clean Power
Plan.”
–10/16/17 –EPA proposed to repeal the CPP
–Public comment period reopened to April 26, 2018 and additional
listening sessions in February and March 2018
82 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 435
8383
Idaho
•No active or proposed greenhouse gas legislation
•Provided comments about the CPP and the federal
implementation plan
•Were working towards a state implementation plan by
September 2016, but work stopped with the Supreme
Court stay
•Will update after EPA makes a final decision on the CPP
83 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 436
8484
Oregon
•Last IRP, “Clean Electricity, Coal Transition” law set a 50%
renewable goal by 2040 and the elimination of coal power in
rates by 2030
•HB 4001 & SB 1507:both bills create a cap and trade system
for entities emitting over 25,000 metric tons carbon annually.
•In 2021, the Oregon Environmental Quality Commission
would set a statewide emissions on about 100 companies
who would need to reduce emissions or buy allowances.
•Revenue would be invested in clean energy or emissions
mitigation programs.
•Emissions under both bills would drop 20% below 1990 levels
by 2025, 45% by 2035, and 80% by 2050.
84 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 437
8585
Oregon
•HB 4001 moved from House Energy & Environment Committee and
referred to the Joint Committee on Ways & Means with no
scheduled action for the bill.
•SB 1507 was voted out of the Senate Environment & Natural
Resources Committee and referred to the Joint Committee on Ways
& Means with no currently scheduled action for the bill.
•The House bill mirrors California’s and the Senate bill tries to
complements the “Clean Electricity, Coal Transition” bill by giving
utilities free allowances for coal emissions.
•The biggest question from legislators has been the cost, which were
estimated between $400 and $700 million annually in a Senate
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources debate on
February 12, but a final cost hasn’t been issued yeat.
85 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 438
8686
Washington
•Clean Air Rule –invalidated 12/15/17
•SSB 6203: Current version is $12/metric ton from use of fossil fuels
and emissions from electric sector, increasing $1.80/year until
reaching $30/ton in 2030
–Originally $20 with 3.5% plus inflation, changed to $10 and $2 annual
increase
–Exempts many energy intensive, trade-exposed manufacturers
–Allows utilities a full tax credit for investing in projects and programs to
reduce emissions or mitigate costs to low-income customers. This
provision phases out for coal-fired generation.
–Possible ballot initiative if the measure fails
•SHB 2839 –allows alternative regulation by the UTC and requires
utilities to factor in a “carbon adder” starting at $40/ton in resource
and conservation planning if a carbon price is enacted. Failed to
meet the cutoff.
86 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 439
8787
Washington
•SB 6253 requires electric utilities to remove coal-fired generation
costs from rates by 2030, and reduce carbon emitting resources
until 100% renewable by 2045 or face a $100/ton cost for exceeding
emission targets. Failed to meet the chamber of origin cutoff.
•HB 2580, Rep. Morris Requires the WSU Extension Energy
Program and Department of Commerce to identify opportunities and
cost estimates for renewable natural gas and provide
recommendations by September 1, 2018. Failed to meet the
chamber of origin cutoff.
•HB 2402 for 50% RPS for investor-owned utilities by 2040,
consumer-owned utilities purchase non-emitting resources for future
needs, and sets minimum conservation 2% of electric load and 1.5%
for natural gas load. Failed to meet the chamber of origin cutoff.
•Elements of bills failing to meet the chamber of origin cutoff may still
be incorporated into other bills.
87 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 440
88
Price Forecasts and Carbon Adders
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 441
89
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
$
/

D
t
h
Henry Hub Forecast
(Nominal $)
Historic Consultant 1
Nominal Henry Hub
Consultant 2
Nominal Henry Hub
Forwards EIA 2018 AEO
Forecast
89
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 442
9090
How prices affect IRP Planning?
•Major component of the total cost
•Change in price can trigger price elastic response
•THE major piece of avoided costs and therefore cost effectiveness
of DSM
•Can change resource selection based on basin differentials
•Storage utilization
90
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 443
91
IRP Natural Gas Price Forecast
Methodology
1.Two fundamental forecasts (Consultant #1 & Consultant #2)
2.Forward prices
3.Year 1 -forward price only
4.Year 2 -75% forward price / 25% average consultant forecasts
5.Year 3 -50% forward price / 50% average consultant forecasts
6.Year 4 –6 25% forward price / 75% average consultant forecasts
7.Year 7 -50% average consultant without CO2 / 50% average consultant with
CO2
91
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 444
92
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
Expected Price forecast methodology curves
Nominal $
Nymex (2/9/2018)Consultant 2 Consultant 192
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 445
93
Pricing starts at the expected price for the first year
Years 2-6 price deviates by 6% per year from the expected price to create the high and low
Years 7-11 price deviates by 3% per year from the expected price to create the high and low
Years 12 –20 the price deviates by 1.5% per year from the expected price
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
2018 Henry Hub Prices -Nominal
High HH Price…Low HH Price…HH Expected Price…
93
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 446
9494*nominal dollars94
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 447
9595
Carbon Price by Jurisdiction
*Idaho has no carbon price adder
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 448
9696
Carbon Tax Summary
•ID –None
•OR –Cap and Investment Program SB1070
–Avista’s price assumption are based on CA cap and
trade program
–Increases by 5% + inflation each year
•WA –Governor Inslee proposed Carbon tax (SB
6203)
–Starts at $10 per MTCO2e in July 2019 and starting in
2021 adds $2 per year until capping at $30 in 2030.
96
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 449
97
2018 ID IRP Prices
Low –Expected –High
No Carbon Adders
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
ID - HH Expected Price…ID - Low HH Price…ID - High HH Price…
97
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 450
98
2018 OR IRP prices
Low –Expected –High
Including Carbon Adders
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
OR - HH Expected Price…OR - Low HH Price…OR - High HH Price…98
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 451
99
2018 WA IRP Prices
Low –Expected –High
Including Carbon Adders
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
WA - HH Expected Price
Nominal $
WA - Low HH Price
Nominal $
WA - High HH Price
Nominal $
99
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 452
100
2018 Henry Hub
Expected Price
Including Carbon Adders by State
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
ID - HH Expected Price
Nominal $
OR - HH Expected Price
Nominal $
WA - HH Expected Price
Nominal $100
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 453
101
Wrap Up
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 454
102102
IPUC
•Staff believes public participation could be further
enhanced through “bill stuffers, public flyers, local media,
individual invitations, and other methods.”
•Result: Avista utilized it’s Regional Business Managers
in addition to digital communications and newsletters in
all states in order to try and gain more public
participation. Previous IRP’s relied on website data and
word of mouth.
–eCommunity newsletter was sent out on January 15, 2018
102
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 455
103103
OPUC
•Staff Recommendation No. 1
–Staff recommends in Avista's 2018 IRP that Avista pursue an updated methodology, wherein the low/high
gas price curves continue to be based on low (high) historic prices in a Monte Carlo setting, but are inflated
to match the growth rate (yr/yr) of the expected price curve. The resulting curves wouid be based on historic
prices and also produce symmetric .risk profiles throughout the time horizon.
–Result: Avista updated its method as recommended by the Oregon commission. This new method deviates
from the expected price by the following method:
•Pricing starts at the expected price for the first year
•Years 2-6 the high and low price deviate +/-6% per year from the expected price
•Years 7-11 the high and low price deviate by +/-3% per year from the expected price
•Years 12 –20 the high and low price deviate by +/-1.5% per year from the expected price
•By the 20 year mark the high and low deviate from the expected price by +/-58.5%
•Staff Recommendation No. 2
–Staff recommends that Avista forecast its number of customers using at least two different methods and to
compare the accuracy of the different methods using actual data as a future task in its next IRP.
–Result: Avista analyzed the data, but there was nothing material discovered the come up with a meaningful
forecast alternative.
•Staff Recommendation No. 3
–Avista's 2018 IRP will contain a dynamic DSM program structure in its analytics.
•In, prior IRPs, it was a deterministic method based on Expected Case assumptions, in the 2018 IRP,
each portion will have the ability to select conservation to meet unserved customer demand, Avista will
explore methods to enable a dynamic analytical process for the evaluation of conservation potential
within individual portfolios and will work with Energy Trust of Oregon in the development of this
process and in producing any final results for its 2018 IRP for Oregon customers.
103
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 456
104104
OPUC cont.
•Staff Recommendation No. 4
–Staff recommends that Avista provide Staff and stakeholders with updates
regarding its discussions and analysis regarding possible regional pipeline
projects that may move forward.
•Staff Recommendation No. 5
–Staff recommends that in its 2018 IRP process Avista work with Staff and
stakeholders to establish and complete stochastic analysis that considers a
range of alternative portfolios for comparison and consideration of both cost and
risk.
104
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 457
105105
OPUC cont.
•Staff Recommendation No. 6
–Environmental Considerations
•1. Carbon Policy including federal and state regulations, specifically
those surrounding the Washington Clean Air Rule and federal Clean
Power Plan;
–Result: Carbon Policy including the Clean Power Plan and Clean Air
Rule were both reviewed and included in TAC 2 Meeting materials on
2/22/2018. An indicator of where Avista’s carbon reduction
requirements under the CAR was also included. Since the CAR was
invalidated on 12/15/2017 in Thurston County Superior Court this
analysis is intended to meet the action item in addition to showing the
potential impacts of similar policies.
•2. Weather analysis specific to Avista's service territories;
–Result: A weather analysis was included and reviewed in TAC 2
meeting materials on 2/22/2018
•3. Stochastic Modeling and supply resources; and
•4. Updated DSM methodology including the integration of ETO
105
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 458
106106
WUTC
•Include a section that discusses impacts of the Clean Air Rule (CAR).
–In its 2018 IRP expected case, Avista should model specific CAR impacts as well
as consider the costs and risk of additional environmental regulations, including a
possible carbon tax.
–Result:
•Carbon Policy including the Clean Power Plan and Clean Air Rule were both
reviewed and included in TAC 2 Meeting materials on 2/22/2018. An
indicator of where Avista’s carbon reduction requirements under the CAR
was also included. Since the CAR was invalidated on 12/15/2017 in
Thurston County Superior Court this analysis is intended to meet the action
item in addition to showing the potential impacts of similar policies.
•For the 2018 IRP Avista is utilizing SB6203 from the WA Senate energy
committee on Feb. 1 as a proxy of a possible carbon tax in Washington
State.
106
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 459
107107
WUTC
•Provide more detail on the company’s natural gas hedging strategy,
including information on upper and lower pricing points, transactions with
counterparties, and how diversification of the portfolio is achieved.
–Avista’s natural gas hedging strategy was discussed during the TAC 2 Meeting on 2/22/2018.
The upper and lower pricing points in Avista’s programmatic hedges is controlled by taking
into consideration the volatility over the past year for the specific hedging period. This
volatility is weighted toward the more recent volatility. The window length and quantity of
windows is also a part of the equation. Avista transacts on ICE with counterparties meeting
our credit rating criteria. The diversification of the portfolio is achieved through the following
methods:
–Components: The plan utilizes a mix of index, fixed price, and storage transactions.
–Transaction Dates:Hedge windows are developed to distribute the transactions throughout
the plan.
–Supply Basins:Plan to primarily utilize AECO, execute at lowest price basis at the time.
–Delivery Periods:Hedges are completed in annual and/or seasonal timeframes. Long-term
hedges may be executed.
107
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 460
108108
WUTC cont.
•Ensure that the entity performing the CPA evaluates and includes the
following information:
–All conservation measures excluded from the CPA, including those excluded
prior to technical potential determination
–The rationale for excluding any measure
–A description of Unit Energy Savings (UES) for each measure included in the
CPA, specifying how it was derived and the source of the data
–The rationale for any difference in economic and achievable potential savings,
including how the Company is working towards an achievable target of 85
percent of economic potential savings.
–A description of all efforts to create a fully-balanced cost effectiveness
metric within the planning horizon based on the TRC.
108
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 461
109109
WUTC cont.
•Discuss with the TAC:
–The results of Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA)
coordination, including non-energy benefits to include in the CPA.
–The appropriateness of listing and mapping all prospective distribution
system enhancement projects planned on the 20 year horizon, and
comparing actual projects completed to prospective projects listed in
previous IRP’s.
•Provide a rationale for any difference in economic and achievable
potential savings
109
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 462
110110
2017 –2018 Avista’s Action Plan
•The price of natural gas has dropped significantly since the 2014 IRP.This is primarily due to the
amount of economically extractable natural gas in shale formations,more efficient drilling
techniques,and warmer than normal weather.Wells have been drilled,but left uncompleted due
to the poor market economics.This is depressing natural gas prices and forcing many oil and
natural gas companies into bankruptcy.Due to historically low prices Avista will research market
opportunities including procuring a derivative based contract,10-year forward strip,and natural
gas reserves.
•Result:After exploring the opportunity of some type of reserves ownership,it was
determined the price as compared to risk of ownership was inappropriate to go forward with
at this time.As an ongoing aspect of managing the business,Avista will continue to look for
opportunities to help stabilize rates and/or reduce risk to our customers.
Monitor actual demand for accelerated growth to address resource deficiencies arising from
exposure to “flat demand”risk.This will include providing Commission Staff with IRP demand
forecast-to-actual variance analysis on customer growth and use-per-customer at least bi-
annually.
Result:actual demand was closely tracked and shared with Commissions in semi-annual
or quarterly meetings.
110
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 463
111111
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 :Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and future
potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018:DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
•June 1, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•June 29, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•July 2018 –TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
111
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 464
1
2018 Avista Natural Gas IRP
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
March 29, 2018
Spokane, WA
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 465
22
Agenda
•Introductions & Logistics
•Williams update
•TransCanada update
•Avista’s Supply Side Resources
•Distribution
•Renewable Natural Gas
•Power to Gas
•Initial sensitivity results & proposed scenarios
Lunch will be around 12pm
2
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 466
33
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 : Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and
future potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018:DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
•June 1, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•June 29, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•July 2018 –TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
3
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 467
NYSE: WMB
williams.com
WE MAKE ENERGY HAPPEN
Avista TAC Meeting #3
March 29, 2018
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 468
5© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Mastio Survey
>Rated No. 2 in the Mega and Major Pipeline categories and No. 3 in the
overall Interstate Pipeline category
>Northwest was ranked #1 in the following areas:
•competitive rates
•diverse supply & markets
•likelihood to recommend
>Northwest was ranked #2 in the following areas:
•honest communications
•effectiveness of contract negotiations
•expertise of reps to solve your needs
•value received for the money paid
•flexibility of gas flows
•flexibility of transport options
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 469
6© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Northwest System –Strategically Located
>Low-cost, primary service provider in the
Pacific Northwest
•3,900-mile system with 3.8 Bcf/d peak design
capacity
•~120 Bcf of access to storage along pipeline,
with high injection and deliverability capability in
market area
•Fully Contracted with > 9 year average contract
life
>Bi-directional design
•Provides flexibility (Rockies to market and
Sumas to market)
•Cheapest supply drives flow patterns
•Provides operational efficiencies through
displacement
>Supply and market flexibility
•65 receipt points totaling 11.6 Bcf/d of supply
from Rockies, Sumas, WCSB, San Juan,
emerging shales
•366 delivery points totaling 9.7 Bcf/d of delivery
capacity
>Solution oriented
•History of working with our customers both
creatively and collaboratively to serve their
needs
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 470
7© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Supply Diversity
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 471
8© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Supply Diversity –South End
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 472
9© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Sumas South Historical
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Chehalis Historical (Avg Dth/d)
2017 Prior 10yr Avg Prior 5yr Avg Design Capacity
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 473
10© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Stanfield West Historical
(600,000)
(400,000)
(200,000)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Roosevelt Historical (Avg Dth/d)
2017 Prior 10yr Avg Prior 5yr Avg Dsgn Cap Incr Dsgn Cap Decr
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 474
11© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Jackson Prairie Withdrawal Deliverability Curve
-
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
# of Days
Jackson Prairie W/D Rights
NOTE: Deliverability curve is based on a beginning seasonal quantity of 25.6
MMDth. Withdrawal capacity starts out at 1.2 MMDth/d and declines by 2 percent
for each 1 percent the capacity drops below 60 percent.
March 9, 2017 -JP at 26% Capacity –382,720 Dth/d Deliverability
March 13, 2015 –JP at 38% Capacity –669,760 Dth/d Deliverability
March 19, 2016 –JP at 30% Capacity –478,400 Dth/d Deliverability
Lowest point of deliverability during
each of the last five heating
seasons.
March 31, 2014 –JP at 22% Capacity –287,040 Dth/d Deliverability
March 9, 2018 -JP at 28% Capacity –430,560 Dth/d Deliverability
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 475
12© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Weather Forecast –February 26, 2014
February 26 forecast for March 1 through 3, 2014
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 476
13© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Tariff Rates
Effective
12/31/2017
Effective
1/1/2018
Effective
10/1/2018
Comeback Rates
Effective
1/1/2023
TF-1 Reservation (Large Customer)0.41000 0.39294 0.39033 ?
TF-1 Volumetric (Large Customer) 0.03000 0.00832 0.00832 ?
Small Customer 0.72155 0.69427 0.69427 ?
Base Tariff Rates
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 477
14© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista’s Net Effective Rate
Contract
Daily
Contract
Demand
Released
Amount Receipt Delivery Rate
Reservation
Charge
Base Contract Various 190,416 0.39294 27,310,053$
Incremental CD through Segmentations to themselves
Avista 137286 9,211 Starr Road Coeur D'Alene --$
Segmented Releases to Third Parties
IGI 110203 10,000 Rockies Idaho 0.39294 (1,434,231)$
110192 10,000 Rockies Meridian/Boise 0.39294 (1,434,231)$
Clark PUD 140788 2,841 Stanfield River Road 0.39294 (407,465)$
140787 6,709 Stanfield River Road 0.39294 (962,226)$
142230 17,394 Sumas River Road 0.39294 (2,494,701)$
Puget Sound 141549 8,056 Sumas JP Delivery 0.39294 (1,155,416)$
(7,888,271)$
Net Effective Rate 199,627 0.26655 19,421,783$
Contract
Daily
Contract
Demand
Annual
Contract
Quantity Receipt
Receipt /
Delivery
Daily
Rate
Reservation
Charge
Avista 100314 91,200 2,906,266 JP Receipt Various 0.03431 1,141,935$
100315 2,623 94,462 JP Receipt Various 0.03431 37,147$
1,179,081$
Peak Day Effective Rate 293,450 0.19234 20,600,864$
Net Effective Rate
Peak Day Load Effective Rate
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 478
15© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista’s Segmentation to Themselves
Original Path
(R) Opal to (D) Spokane
9,211 Dth/d
Starr Road
Spokane
CDA
Retained Segment 2
(R) Rockies to (D) Spokane
9,211 Dth/d
Rockies
Retained Segment 1
(R) Starr Road to (D) CDA
9,211 Dth/d
Incremental CD through Segmentation
Segment #1 9,211
Segment #2 9,211
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 479
16© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista’s Segmented Release No. 1
Original Path
(R) Rockies to (D) Spokane
20,000 Dth/d
Stanfield Receipt
Spokane
Idaho
Released Segment 1
(R) Rockies to (D) Idaho
20,000 Dth/d Rockies
Retained Segment 1
(R) Stanfield to (D) Spokane
20,000 Dth/d
Annual Cost Savings
Segment #1 ~$3.0m
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 480
17© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista’s Segmented Release No. 2
Original Path
(R) Rockies to (D) Spokane
20,000 Dth/d
Stanfield Receipt
Spokane
Idaho
Released Segment 1
(R) Rockies to (D) Idaho
20,000 Dth/d Rockies
Retained Segment 1
(R) Stanfield to (D) Spokane
20,000 Dth/d
Annual Cost Savings
Segment #1 ~$3.0m
Segment #2 ~$1.4m
Released Segment 2
(R) Stanfield to (D) River Road
10,000 Dth/d
Retained Segment 2
(R) Palouse to (D) Lewiston
10,000 Dth/d
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 481
18© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista’s Segmented Release No. 3
Original Path
(R) Sumas to (D) Pullman
(6,000), Moscow (4,000), &
Coeur D’Alene (10,394)
20,394 Dth/d
Sumas Receipt
Coeur D’Alene
Pullman/
Moscow
Retained Segment 3
(R) Starr Road to (D) CDA
10,394 Dth/d
Retained Segment 3
(R) Mollalla to (D) Pullman/ Moscow
10,000 Dth/d
Mollalla Receipt
Released Segment 3
(R) Sumas to (D) River Road
17,394 Dth/d
River Road
Annual Cost Savings
Segment #1 ~$3.0m
Segment #2 ~$1.4m
Segment #3 ~$2.5m
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 482
19© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista’s Segmented Release No. 4
Original Path
(R) Sumas to (D) Spokane
8,056 Dth/d
Sumas Receipt
Spokane
Retained Segment 4
(R) JP to (D) Spokane
8,056 Dth/d
JP Receipt
Released Segment 4
(R) Sumas to (D) JP
8,056 Dth/dJP Delivery
Annual Cost Savings
Segment #1 ~$3.0m
Segment #2 ~$1.4m
Segment #3 ~$2.5m
Segment #4 ~$1.1m
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 483
20© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 484
21© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Firm Reliability
•2014 –99.9 percent
•2015 − 100 percent
•2016 − 99.9 percent
•2017 − 100 percent
>To determine customer impact, firm reliability percentage is calculated on
flows prior, during and after posted maintenance
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 485
22© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Reliability and Integrity Programs
>Integrity Management
–In-line Inspections
–Requalifications
–Cathodic Protection
>Geo Hazard
–Strain Gauge
–River Crossing
–Land Movement
>Mainline Valve Automation
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 486
23© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program
>An Integrity Management Program based on an effective
framework
•Prevention, detection and remediation
•Designed to address safety, reliability and compliance related risks in a
comprehensive and systematic way
•Plan maintenance focused on minimizing customer impacts
>Three major pipeline integrity recurring programs
•Assessment Program
•In-Line Inspection (smart pigging)
•Department of Transportation Requalification Program
•Cathodic Protection Program
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 487
24© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program (cont.)
>In-Line Inspection Program (smart
pigging)
>The preferred assessment method to address
most integrity threats
>Means of complying with the Pipeline Safety
Improvement Act (PSIA) of 2002
>Integrity Hydro-test
>Direct Assessments
Assessments
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 488
25© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program (cont.)
In-Line Inspection (ILI) Program
>Tools:
•Gauge plate pig
•Cleaning pig
•Geometry pig (dents, obstructions)
•Magnetic Flux Leakage pig (MFL)
>Specialty Tools
•Circumferential/Spiral Magnetic Flux Leakage Pig (CMFL)
•ElectroMagnetic Acoustic Transducer (EMAT)
Standard suite of tools
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 489
26© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program (cont.)
In-Line Inspection Program –
Preparing the line for inspection
>Cleaning pig:
•remove liquids and debris from
line and prepares line for
inspection
>Gauge Plate Pig:
•inspect for obstructions such as
severe dents or bends that
could stop an instrumented tool
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 490
27© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program (cont.)
In-Line Inspection Program -
Standard Instrumented In-line
Inspection Tools
Geometry Tool:
•Locate and size dents, bends,
ovality due to construction or third-
party damage
>MFL Tool:
•inspect for internal/external
corrosion or metal loss
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 491
28© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program (cont.)
In-Line Inspection Program -
Specialty Tools
>Circumferential/Spiral Magnetic
Flux Leakage Pig (CMFL):
•Locate and size axially oriented
anomalies
>Electro Magnetic Acoustic
Transducer (EMAT) Tool:
•Locate and size cracking including
stress corrosion cracking (SCC)
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 492
29© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Management Program (cont.)
Benefits of Utilizing ILI Technology for Integrity
Assessment
>It can assess for anomalies for the entire length of a pipeline segment vs. just the
HCA locations as a hydro test
>The line does not need to be taken out of service to complete the assessment
>It can find features that would not be found in a hydro test,(e.g. pending failures)
>Data can be compared against prior runs to determine if features are growing
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 493
30© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Integrity Assessment Program
>Asset integrity
•3,201 (83.8%) miles of
first time assessment
•177 (98.6%) miles of High
Consequence Area (HCA)
first time assessment
•Reassess HCA’s every 7
years
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 494
31© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
DOT Compliance Program
Department of Transportation
Requalification Program
>Class location change based on
population density and buildings near
pipeline
>If class location changes, then either:
•Reduce pressure
•Perform a hydrostatic test
•Replace pipeline
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 495
32© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Cathodic Protection & Recoat Program
>Purpose
•Protect the pipeline against corrosion
–Williams uses impressed current systems to protect against corrosion
•All current levels are evaluated annually
–Coating protects against corrosion by providing a physical barrier from the
elements as well as making the cathodic protection current more efficient
•Recoat areas determined primarily by inline inspection run-to-run
comparisons
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 496
33© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Geologic Hazards Program
>Monitoring pipe strain at strategic locations
>Monitoring land movement in several ways
Land Movement River Crossing Strain Gauge
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 497
34© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Reliability Programs
>Strain gauge database
>ILI strain analysis
>Inclinometers
>Aerial surveys
>River crossing monitoring program
>GIS geotechnical hazards database
>LIDAR data
Northwest Geotechnical Monitoring
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 498
35© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
Department of Transportation Mainline Valve
Program
>The purpose of the program is to ensure that Northwest Pipeline is in
compliance with the Department of Transportation required mainline
valve spacing requirements.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 499
36© 2017 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Avista TAC Meeting | 3/29/18
>Questions??
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 500
TransCanada Supply Update–J. Story
AVISTA –IRP/TAC Meeting
March 29, 2018
37
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 501
2017 Supply and Market Outlook
•North American Supply and Demand
•NGTL Expansions
•Impact on GTN Supply and Capacity
3838
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 502
North American Demand
2017 TransCanada Outlook
39
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
Bc
f
/
D
LNG Exports
Transport
Power
Generation
Industrial
Other
Residential
Commercial
39
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 503
North American Supply
2017 TransCanada Outlook
40
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
Bc
f
d
WCSB
Northeast
Rockies/ San Juan
Permian
Mid-Con
Gulf Coast
Gulf of Mexico
Fort Worth
Other
40
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 504
41
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 505
Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin Gas Supply
Liard
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010 2015 2020 2025
Solution Gas
Conventional -Vertical
Conventional -Horizontal
Horn River
CBM Montney
Bcf/d
Cordova
History Forecast
Duvernay
Liard
42
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 506
Western Canadian Production (Bcf)
13.8 14.5 14.9 15.1
0 0
15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.8
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
FORECAST
WCSB
ACTUALS
FORECAST FORECAST 1 FORECAST 2 FORECAST 3
Source: Wood Mackenzie
43
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 507
Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin
•WCSB:
•Prolific and competitive resource
•Economic production in Montney and Deep
Basin resources
•NGTL System:
•Dominant basin position, capturing 75% of
WCSB production
•Strongly connected to substantive supply and
intra and ex-basin markets
•Supply to GTN and Northern Border
•400+Bcf of gas storage
•50+Bcf/d of NIT trading liquidity
44
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 508
Evolving System Supply Distribution
2011
2016
2021
North of
Bens Lake
Peace
River
Central
Area
2%
>1%
35%
60%
5%24%
15%
85%
74%
45
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 509
James River By-Pass
•Open Seasons in 2015
•Onstream June 2016
•Pipeline modification Project
•~150 TJ/d of capacity
•ABC Border Design Capability: ~2.2 Bcf/d
Sundre Crossover
•Open Seasons in January and June 2016
•Onstream 2018
•~20km of NPS 42 pipeline loop of WAS Mainline
•ABC Border Design Capability: ~2.45 Bcf/d
West Path
46
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 510
NGTL Mainline Expansions
Planned 2017 Facilities Planned 2018-19 Facilities
2017 Expansions 2018-19 Expansions
Pipe
284 km of NPS 24-48
Compression
6 units for 113.5 MW
Pipe
267 km of NPS 36-42
Compression
8 units for 195 MW
47
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 511
2019/2020 West Path Expansion
Planned 2019 FacilitiesPlanned 2020 Facilities
AB-BC Border Expansion Capacity Open Season
Expansion Capacity:408 TJ/d
Service Commencement Dates:
Nov 2019 120 TJ/d
Jun 2020 288 TJ/d
Bid Evaluation:Length of Requested Term
Minimum Term:8 years
FT-D1 Pricing Discount:10%
Closing Date:May 31, 2017
•Full alignment of TransCanada assets serving PacNW and
Western states.
•Economic production from the WCSB resources is a good fit
for Western US markets
48
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 512
GTN Overview
•Positioned to serve markets
throughout California, Nevada, and
the Pacific Northwest
•Consists of 1,350 miles of pipeline
•Kingsgate best efforts receipt
capability of approx. 2.87 Bcfd and
throughput capability of approx. 2
Bcfd thru Sta. 14
•Deliveries of up to 1.5 Bcfd to non-
California Markets
•Long-term contracts extending out as
far as 2039
•Volume throughput continues to be
strong and should continue to grow
in 2018
•NGTL continues to address the export
capability at ABC to bring into
alignment with downstream systems
49
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 513
Demand Projections
Pacific Northwest & California
1,
1
0
0

1,
6
8
0

1,
3
0
0

1,
9
8
0

1,
2
0
0

1,
9
8
0

1,
3
0
6

2,
1
7
9

1,
3
3
5

2,
2
8
7

1,
5
1
3

2,
3
5
9

1,
5
0
6

2,
3
7
0

1,
5
0
7

2,
3
7
3

1,
5
1
2

2,
3
8
7

1,
5
1
0

2,
4
0
2

1,
5
8
0

2,
4
5
0

1,
5
9
5

2,
4
6
9

1,
6
1
4

2,
5
0
5

-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
S
1
4
W
1
4
/
1
5
S
1
5
W
1
5
/
1
6
S
1
6
W
1
6
/
1
7
S
1
7
W
1
7
/
1
8
S
1
8
W
1
8
/
1
9
S
1
9
W
1
9
/
2
0
S
2
0
W
2
0
/
2
1
S
2
1
W
2
1
/
2
2
S
2
2
W
2
2
/
2
3
S
2
3
W
2
3
/
2
4
S
2
4
W
2
4
/
2
5
S
2
5
W
2
5
/
2
6
S
2
6
W
2
6
/
2
7
Actuals Forecast
MM
c
f
d
PaCNW
Actuals Average Forecast Average Forecast 1 Average Forecast 2
6,
1
7
1

6,
5
4
0

6,
2
1
4

6,
7
8
0

5,
7
5
7

6,
9
0
0

5,
6
8
6

6,
9
0
8

5,
7
4
6

6,
9
3
4

5,
6
3
6

6,
8
1
4

5,
5
6
7

6,
8
8
7

5,
5
4
5

6,
8
9
8

5,
5
9
2

6,
9
0
6

5,
5
8
1

6,
9
3
5

5,
6
3
5

7,
1
4
8

5,
8
2
8

7,
3
0
4

5,
9
6
4

7,
3
6
6

-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
S
1
4
W
1
4
/
1
5
S
1
5
W
1
5
/
1
6
S
1
6
W
1
6
/
1
7
S
1
7
W
1
7
/
1
8
S
1
8
W
1
8
/
1
9
S
1
9
W
1
9
/
2
0
S
2
0
W
2
0
/
2
1
S
2
1
W
2
1
/
2
2
S
2
2
W
2
2
/
2
3
S
2
3
W
2
3
/
2
4
S
2
4
W
2
4
/
2
5
S
2
5
W
2
5
/
2
6
S
2
6
W
2
6
/
2
7
Actuals Forecast
MM
c
f
d
CALIFORNIA
Actuals Average Forecast Average Forecast 1 Average Forecast 2
50
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 514
•James River By-Pass
ISD -June 2016
•150,000 Gj/d
•A/BC Border Capability –2.2 Bcf/d
•Sundre Crossover
•ISD -April 2018
•245,000 Gj/d
•A/BC Border Capability –2.43 Bcf/d
•Winchell Unite Addition
•ISD –November 2019
•120,000 Gj/d
•Estimated A/BC Border Capability –2.54 Bcf/d
•West Path Expansion
•ISD –June 2020
•288,000 Gj/d
•Estimated A/BC Border Capability –2.81 Bcf/d
NGTL West Path Expansion Summary
51
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 515
•Total Available at Kingsgate May Vary Depending upon
Foothills Markets and Fuel Usage
•Daily Kingsgate Supply Available estimated:
•Early 2018 2.33 Bcf/d*
•November 2019 2.44 Bcf/d*
•June 2020 2.71 Bcf/d*
*(estimates approx. 100,000dth/d scheduled on FTBC system)
•Current GTN Kingsgate Receipt Capability:
•Best Efforts –2.87 Bcf/d
•Capability impacted by seasonal ambient temps and physical
flow path
Impact on Kingsgate Supply
52
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 516
•Recent GTN Open Seasons to Contract Available Capacity
•Open Seasons Process Ran–December 2017 thru January 2018
•Pre-arranged –Kingsgate to Malin Path
•8 “Packages” totaling approx. 348,610 Dth/d
•Contract Start Dates of Nov. 2019 and Nov. 2020
•All contracted long-term
•All Capacity Awarded to Pre-arranged Entities
•Remaining Available Capacity –Kingsgate to Malin Path
•139,400 dth/d
•Effective Date(s) –Any Date April 1, 2018 or Later
•Unlimited Term
•All Offered Capacity Awarded
Impact of Kingsgate Supply on GTN
53
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 517
•Considerable Interest in Additional Kingsgate Sourced GTN Capacity
•GTN Exploring Expansion Options
•“Market Pull” Required
•Mainline
•New Pipelines or Laterals –Trail West
•ROFR Open Season Process
•Contract Renewals
•2023 Contract Cliff
•GTN Rate Case Update
•GTN Full Haul Rate Drops to $0.285 Effective 1/1/2020 thru 12/31/2021
•Kingsgate to Stanfield -$0.146 Dth/d
•Kingsgate to Spokane -$0.076 Dth/d
•“Come Back” Provision Requires New Rates Effective 1/1/2022
•Rate Case Preparation in 2021
•Recent Contracting and Facility Upgrades will Impact Rates
Impact of Kingsgate Supply on GTN
54
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 518
NGTL and Foothills Pipelines Update
55
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 519
56
Avista -Supply Side Resources
Eric Scott
Manager of Natural Gas Resources
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 520
5757
Interstate Pipeline Resources
•The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) brings together the various
components necessary to ensure proper resource planning for
reliable service to utility customers.
•One of the key components for natural gas service is interstate
pipeline transportation. Low prices, firm supply and storage
resources are rendered meaningless to a utility customer without
the ability to transport the gas reliably during cold weather events.
•Acquiring firm interstate pipeline transportation provides the most
reliable delivery of supply.
57
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 521
5858
Pipeline Overview
58
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 522
595959
Pipeline Overview
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 523
60
Avista holds firm transportation capacity on 6 interstate
pipelines:
Avista’s Transportation Contract Portfolio
60
Pipeline Expirations Base Capacity Dth
Williams NWP 2019 –2042 (2035)290,000
Westcoast
(Enbridge)
2026 10,000
TransCanada -
NGTL
2019-2028 208,000
TransCanada -
Foothills
2020-2028 204,000
TransCanada -
GTN
2023-2028 240,000 –321,000
166,000 –212,000
TransCanada -
Tuscarora
2020 200
*Includes Thermal Transport
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 524
6161
Contract Provisions -NWP
61
•Grandfathered Unilateral Evergreen (TF-1, TF-2, SGS-2F)
–Roll-over 1 year
–Shipper has sole option to extend or renew
•Standard Unilateral Evergreen
–Roll-over 1 year
–5 year termination provision
•Standard Bilateral Evergreen
–Either transporter OR shipper may terminate
•Right of First Refusal (ROFR)
–Provides “last look”
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 525
6262
Contract Provisions -GTN
62
•Unilateral Evergreen
–Shipper alone may terminate contract
•Bilateral Evergreen
–Either transporter OR shipper may terminate contract
•Right of First Refusal (ROFR)
–Provides “last look”
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 526
63
Pipeline Contracting
Simply stated: The right to move (transport) a
specified amount of gas from Point A to Point B
A B
63
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 527
6464
Contract Types
64
•Firm transport
–Point A to Point B
•Alternate firm
–Point C to Point D
•Seasonal firm
–Point A to Point B but only in winter
•Interruptible
–Maybe it flows, maybe it doesn’t
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 528
6565
Rate Design
65
•Postage stamp (NWP)
–1 mile or a thousand miles –same price
–Plus variable
•Mileage (GTN)
–Fee per mile
–Plus variable
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 529
66
NWP Rate Case Settlement
•New rates in effect January 1, 2018
–Good through September 30, 2018
•Rates further reduced October 1, 2018 –December 31, 2022
•Mandatory come-back –January 1, 2023
•No stay-out after October 2, 2018
66
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 530
67
GTN Rate Case Settlement
•New rates in effect January 1, 2016
–Good through December 31, 2019
•Rates further reduced January 2020 –December 2021
•Mandatory come-back –January 1, 2022
•No stay-out
67
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 531
686868
Pipeline Capacity –Segmented Releases
Example
Sipi
JP
Spokane
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 532
6969
Northwest Pipeline Tariff Rate:$0.400
Effective rate –segmentation example:$0.133
Effective Rate -#100010
Contract CD Rate Path Annual $
#100010 19,432 Dth $0.40 Sumas -Spokane $2,837,000
Released (19,432 Dth)$0.40 Sumas -Spokane ($2,837,000)
#1 19,432 Dth $0.40 JP -Spokane $2,837,000
#2 19,432 Dth -0-Sumas -JP -0-
Released (19,432 Dth)-0-Sumas -JP -0-
#2a 19,432 Dth -0-Sumas -Sipi -0-
#2b 19,432 Dth -0-Sipi -JP -0-
Total 58,296 Dth $2,837,000
69
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 533
7070
Capacity Releases
70
During 2017, AVA received $9.6mm in release “revenue”
Example:
AVA released 35,000 Dths/day at full tariff rate to Clark PUD
until 10/31/2025 recapturing over $5.2mm annually all of
which goes to customers.
Time Duration Rate
Annual 1 year Full rate
Long-term 1+ year –31.5 years Full rate
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 534
7171
Storage –A valuable asset
•Peaking resource
•Improves reliability
•Enables capture of price spreads between time
periods
•Enables efficient counter cyclical utilization of
transportation (i.e. summer injections)
•May require transportation to service territory
•In-service territory storage offers most flexibility
71
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 535
72
Washington and Idaho
Owned Jackson Prairie
•7.7 Bcf of Capacity with approximately 346,000 Dth/d of
deliverability
Oregon
Owned Jackson Prairie
•823,000 Dth of Capacity with approximately 52,000 Dth/d of
deliverability
Leased Jackson Prairie
•95,565 Dth of Capacity with approximately 2,654 Dth/d of
deliverability
Avista’s Storage Resources
72
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 536
7373
The Facility
•Jackson Prairie is a
series of deep,
underground reservoirs
–basically thick,
porous sandstone
deposits. •The sand layers lie
approximately 1,000 to
3,000 feet below the
ground surface. •Large compressors and
pipelines are employed
to both inject and
withdraw natural gas at
54 wells spread across
the 3,200 acre facility.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 537
7474
1.2 Bcf per day (energy equivalent)
•10 coal trains with 100 -50 ton cars each
•29 -500 MW gas-fired power plants
•13 Hanford-sized nuclear power plants
•2 Grand Coulee-sized hydro plants (biggest in US)
46 Bcf of stored gas
•12” pipeline 11,000,000 miles long (226,000 miles to the moon)
•1,400 Safeco Fields (Baseball Stadiums)
•Average flow of the Columbia River for 2 days
•Cube -3,550 feet on a side
Jackson Prairie Interesting Energy Comparisons
74
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 538
75
Natural Gas Liquids -Extraction
•Gas from the Western Canadian
Sedimentary Basin has many
“liquids” that can be extracted and
sold
•Nearly $2,100,000
Methane Molecule
75
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 539
76
Distribution System Planning
Terrence Browne PE,
Senior Gas Planning Engineer
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 540
7777
Mission
•Using technology to plan and design a safe, reliable, and
economical distribution system
77
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 541
7878
Gas Distribution Planning
•Service Territory and Customers
•Scope of Gas Distribution Planning
•SynerGi Load Study Tool
•Planning Criteria
•Interpreting Results
•Long-term Planning Objectives
•Historical Temperatures
•Monitoring Our System
•Solutions
•Gate Station Capacity Review
•Project Examples
78
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 542
79
–Population of service area 1.5 million
371,000 electric customers
348,000 natural gas customers
Service Territory and Customer Overview
•Serves electric and natural gas customers in eastern Washington and northern Idaho,
and natural gas customers in southern and eastern Oregon
79
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 543
80
Seasonal Demand Profiles
80
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 544
8181
Our Planning Models
•122 cities
•40 load study models
81
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 545
8282
__
Pup Pdown
Q
L ||
D
__
5 Variables for Any Given Pipe
82
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 546
8383
Scope of Gas Distribution Planning
Supplier Pipeline
High Pressure Main
Reg.
Distribution Main and Services
Reg.Reg.
Gate
Sta.
83
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 547
8484
Scope of Gas Distrib. Planning cont.
Gate
Sta.
Reg.Reg.Reg.
Reg.Reg.
Gate
Sta.
Gate
Sta.
84
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 548
8585
SynerGi (SynerGEE, Stoner) Load Study
•Simulate distribution behavior
•Identify low pressure areas
•Coordinate reinforcements with expansions
•Measure reliability
85
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 549
86
35 DD
30’ F
86
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 550
87
Preparing a Load Study
•Estimating Customer Usage
•Creating a Pipeline Network
•Join Customer Loads to Pipes
•Convert to Load Study
87
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 551
8888
Estimating Customer Usage
•Gathering Data
–Days of service
–Degree Days
–Usage
–Name, Address, Revenue Class, Rate Schedule…
88
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 552
8989
Estimating Customer Usage cont.
•Degree Days
–Heating (HDD)
–Cooling (CDD)
•Temperature -Usage Relationship
–Load vs. HDD’s
–Base Load (constant)
–Heat Load (variable)
–High correlation with residential
Avg. Daily Heating Cooling
Temperature Degree Days Degree Days
('Fahrenheit) (HDD) (CDD)
85 20
80 15
75 10
70 5
65 0 0
60 5
55 10
50 15
45 20
40 25
35 30
30 35
25 40
20 45
15 50
10 55
5 60
4 61
0 65
-5 70
-10 75
-15 80
-17 82
89
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 553
90
90
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 554
91
Heat Base
91 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 555
9292
Estimating Customer Usage cont.
•Peaking Factor
–Peaking Factor = 6.25% of daily load
–“Observed ratio” of greatest hourly flow to total daily flow at
Gate Stations
•Industrial Customers
–Model maximum hourly usage per Contractual Agreement
–Firm Transportation customers only
–Low Temperature-Usage correlation
92
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 556
9393
Creating a Pipeline Model
•Elements
–Pipes, regulators, valves
–Attributes: Length, internal diameter,
roughness
•Nodes
–Sources, usage points, pipe ends
–Attributes: Flow, pressure
93
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 557
9494
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 558
9595
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 559
9696
Join Customer Loads to a Model
•Residential and commercial loads are assigned to pipes
•Industrial or other large loads are assigned to nodes
96
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 560
9797
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 561
9898
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 562
9999
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 563
100100
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 564
101101
Balancing Model
•Simulate system for any temperature
–HDD’s
•Solve for pressure at all nodes
101
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 565
102
35 DD
30˚F
102
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 566
103103
Validating Model
103
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 567
104
Validating Model cont.
104
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 568
105
Validating Model cont.
105
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 569
106
Validating Model cont.
106
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 570
107107
•Simulate recorded condition
•Electronic Pressure Recorders
–Do calculated results match field data?
•Gate Station Telemetry
–Do calculated results match source data?
•Possible Errors
–Missing pipe
–Source pressure changed
–Industrial loads
Validating Model cont.
107
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 571
108108
•Reliability during design HDD
–Spokane 82 HDD
–Medford 61 HDD
–Klamath Falls 72 HDD
–La Grande 74 HDD
–Roseburg 55 HDD
•Maintain minimum of 15 psig in system at all times
–5 psig in lower MAOP areas
Planning Criteria
108
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 572
109109
•Reliability during design HDD
–Spokane 82 HDD (avg. daily temp. -17’ F)
–Medford 61 HDD (avg. daily temp. 4’ F)
–Klamath Falls 72 HDD (avg. daily temp. -7’ F)
–La Grande 74 HDD (avg. daily temp. -9’ F)
–Roseburg 55 HDD (avg. daily temp. 10’ F)
•Maintain minimum of 15 psig in system at all times
–5 psig in lower MAOP areas
Planning Criteria
109
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 573
110
35 DD
30˚F
110
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 574
111
50 DD
15˚F
111
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 575
112
65 DD
0˚F
112
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 576
113113
Interpreting Results
•Identify Low Pressure Areas
–Number of feeds
–Proximity to source
•Looking for Most Economical Solution
–Length (minimize)
–Construction obstacles (minimize)
–Customer growth (maximize)
113
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 577
114114114
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 578
115115115
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 579
116
65 DD
0’ F
116
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 580
117
65 DD
0’ F
R
117
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 581
118
82 DD
-17’ F
R
118
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 582
119119
Long-term Planning Objectives
•Future Growth/Expansion
•Design Day Conditions
•Facilitate Customer Installation Targets
119
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 583
120120
Historical Temperatures
120
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 584
121121
•La Grande 74 HDD
•Roseburg 55 HDD
•Spokane 82 HDD
•11/23/10: 64 HDD “Artic Blast”
•Medford 61 HDD
•Klamath Falls 72 HDD
Historical Temperatures
121
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 585
122122
•La Grande 74 HDD
•12/8/13: 65 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•Roseburg 55 HDD
•12/8/13: 44 HDD“Polar Vortex”
•Spokane 82 HDD
•11/23/10: 64 HDD “Artic Blast”
•12/6/13 and 12/8/13: 58 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•Medford 61 HDD
•12/8/13: 52 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•Klamath Falls 72 HDD
•12/8/13: 72 HDD “Polar Vortex”
Historical Temperatures
122
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 586
123123
•La Grande 74 HDD
•12/8/13: 65 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•Roseburg 55 HDD
•12/8/13: 44 HDD“Polar Vortex”
•Spokane 82 HDD
•11/23/10: 64 HDD “Artic Blast”
•12/6/13 and 12/8/13: 58 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•1/1/16: 55 HDD
•Medford 61 HDD
•12/8/13: 52 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•Klamath Falls 72 HDD
•12/8/13: 72 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•1/2/16: 62 HDD
Historical Temperatures
123
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 587
124124
•La Grande 74 HDD
•12/8/13: 65 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•1/5/17: 65 HDD
•Roseburg 55 HDD
•12/8/13: 44 HDD“Polar Vortex”
•1/5/17: 38 HDD
•Spokane 82 HDD
•11/23/10: 64 HDD “Artic Blast”
•12/6/13 and 12/8/13: 58 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•1/1/16: 55 HDD
•1/5/17: 59 HDD
•Medford 61 HDD
•12/8/13: 52 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•1/5/17: 42 HDD
•Klamath Falls 72 HDD
•12/8/13: 72 HDD “Polar Vortex”
•1/2/16: 62 HDD
•1/5/17: 71 HDD
Historical Temperatures
124
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 588
125125
Monitoring Our System
•Electronic Pressure Recorders
•Daily Feedback
•Real time if necessary
•Validates our Load Studies
125
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 589
126126
Real-time Pressure & Flow Monitoring
126
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 590
127127
ERX #015
Loon Lake, WA
127
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 591
128128
ERX #015: Loon Lake, WA
12/17/2016
01/05/2017
12/29/2016
128
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 592
129129
ERX #007
West Medford 6
psig System
129
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 593
130130
ERX #007: West Medford 6 psig System, OR
12/18/2016
12/26/2016
01/06/2017
130
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 594
131131
Solutions: short-term
131
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 595
132132
Solutions: long-term
State Feet of pipe
Idaho 37,800
Oregon 62,300
Washington 121,100
1-5
years
next
132
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 596
133133
Gas Planning Layers
•Gas Planning Proposals
•Gas Planning AOI
133
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 597
134134
Gas Planning Proposals
Add
4”
134
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 598
135135
Gas Planning AOI
Low
pressure
Future
Growth
135
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 599
136136
Gate Station Capacity Review
136
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 600
137137
y = 0.1278x + 3.5481
R² = 0.64840
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fl
o
w

(
m
c
f
h
)
HDDCity Gate Station # X
Daily Peak Flow (mcfh)
GTN Physical Capacity
(31 mcfh)
Design Day Peak Flow
(14.0 mcfh; 82 HDD)
Contractual Amount
(21.9 mcfh, Diversity
Factor = 1.5)
Linear (Daily Peak Flow
(mcfh))
82 HDD
Gate Station Capacity Review (example)
137
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 601
138138
y = 2.1146x + 65.605
R² = 0.63080
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fl
o
w

(
m
c
f
h
)
HDD
City Gate Station # Y
Daily Peak Flow (mcfh)
NWP Physical Capacity
(206.0 mcfh, Diversity
Factor = 1.44)
Design Day Peak Flow
(239.0 mcfh; 82 HDD)
Contractual Amount
(121.8 mcfh, Diversity
Factor = 1.44)
Linear (Daily Peak Flow
(mcfh))
82 HDD
Gate Station Capacity Review (example)
138
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 602
139
Current Projects and
Examples
139
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 603
140
Hayden Lake HighPressure
Reinforcement
Coeur d’Alene, ID
140
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 604
141
< 1.900
Facilities Color By:Internal Diameter (inches)
1.900 –2.800
2.800 –3.670
3.670 –5.400
5.400 –7.900
7.900 –10.000
10.000 –12.000
12.000 –13.000
> 13.000
Hayden Lake
Completed Proposal:
17,300’ 6” HP steel
2 new regulator
stations
141
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 605
142142
End of existing 6” HP
R
R
17,300’ of 6” Steel HP
and two regulator
stations
Tie-in to
4” IP
Main
Tie-in to
4” IP
Main
142
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 606
143
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
143
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 607
144
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
144
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 608
145
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
145
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 609
146
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
146
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 610
147
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
147
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 611
148
Completed Proposal:
17,300’ 6” HP steel
2 new regulator stations
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
After reinforcement
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
148
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 612
149
Hayden Lake HP Reinforcement
After reinforcement
Completed Proposal:
17,300’ 6” HP steel
2 new regulator stations
Rathdrum
Post Falls
Coeur d’Alene
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
149
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 613
150150
Portable Pressure Monitor
Monitors
the system
pressure
150
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 614
151151
Hayden Lake Pressures Before & After
After Reinforcement
Before
Reinforcement
12 ˚F
31 psig
11 ˚F
43 psig
151
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 615
152152
Hayden Lake H.P. Reinforcement
152
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 616
153
East Medford H.P.
Reinforcement
Medford, OR
153
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 617
154154
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 618
155
Medford
Completed
Proposal:
16,000’ 12” HP steel < 1.900
Facilities Color By:Internal Diameter (inches)
1.900 –2.800
2.800 –3.670
3.670 –5.400
5.400 –7.900
7.900 –10.000
10.000 –12.000
12.000 –13.000
> 13.000
155
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 619
156
285 psig
272 psig
283 psig
End of HP
Line 272
psig
East Medford HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
3.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00 –3.00
156
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 620
157
East Medford HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
End of HP
Line 216
psig
270 psig
280 psig
217 psig
3.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00 –3.00
157
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 621
158
East Medford HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
End of HP
Line 50 psig246 psig
271 psig
55 psig
3.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00 –3.00
158
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 622
159
Medford
Completed Proposal:
16,000’ 12” HP steel
East Medford HP Reinforcement
After reinforcement
281 psig
282 psig
443 psig
3.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00 –3.00
159
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 623
160
East Medford HP Reinforcement
After reinforcement
277 psig
278 psig
436 psig
3.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00 –3.00
Medford
Completed Proposal:
16,000’ 12” HP steel
160
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 624
161161
East Medford H.P. Reinforcement
161
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 625
162
North Spokane H.P.
Reinforcement
Spokane, WA
162
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 626
163
North Spokane
Completed Proposal:
11,500’ 8” HP steel
1 new regulator station < 1.900
Facilities Color By:Internal Diameter (inches)
1.900 –2.800
2.800 –3.670
3.670 –5.400
5.400 –7.900
7.900 –10.000
10.000 –12.000
12.000 –13.000
> 13.000
163
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 627
164164
< 1.900
Facilities Color By:Internal Diameter (inches)
1.900 –2.800
2.800 –3.670
3.670 –5.400
5.400 –7.900
7.900 –10.000
10.000 –12.000
12.000 –13.000
> 13.000
North Spokane
Proposed 6” route
(approx. 2 miles)
Kaiser
Property
164
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 628
165
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
165
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 629
166
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
166
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 630
167
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
167
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 631
168
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
168
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 632
169
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
Before reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
169
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 633
170
North Spokane
Completed Proposal:
11,500’ 8” HP steel
1 new regulator station
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
After reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
170
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 634
171
North Spokane
Completed Proposal:
11,500’ 8” HP steel
1 new regulator station
North Spokane HP Reinforcement
After reinforcement
0.01 –15.00
Facilities Color By:
Pressure (psig)
15.01 –30.00
30.01 –45.00
45.01 –60.00
> 60.01
0.00
171
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 635
172172
North Spokane H.P. Reinforcement
172
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 636
173
Questions and Discussion
Mission
Using technology to plan and design a
safe, reliable, and economical distribution
system
173
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 637
174
Renewable Natural Gas
Jody Morehouse
Director of Natural Gas
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 638
175175175
What is Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)?
Renewable
Natural Gas =
Natural Gas
175
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 639
176176
Carbon (CO2) Emission Reduction
•Carbon reduction
–LDC pathway to reduce emissions
through “de-carbonized” gas stream
–Can provide customers a new energy
choice
–Gives communities another means in
meeting ambitious climate change
commitments
•Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) & Low
Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS)
–Significant value for RNG in
transportation sector in CA and OR
Why does RNG matter?
Source: State of Washington Deep Decarbonization
Pathways Project 12/16/2016
176
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 640
177177
Other
•Reduces waste remediation costs
•Reduces odors, water & air pollution,
pathogens originating from waste
streams
•Creates local jobs and generates
revenue for cities and businesses
•New local sources for gas supply
Other Benefits of RNG
“It reminds me of the Mr. Fusion Home Energy
Reactor in the movie Back to the Future”
Dan Kirschner, NWGA Executive Director, on WA HB 2580 RNG Bill
177
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 641
178178
Federal Renewable Fuel Standard Program
**D3**D4-
D5
**D6
Source: EIA
**D-codes are an approximation; actual code determined by EPA formula
Mandates renewable fuel to replace % of petroleum-based
transportation fuel
178
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 642
179179
RFS and LCFS Effect on RNG Value
RIN = renewable identification number
Source: CARB
Source: EPA
179
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 643
180180
GHG CO2 Reductions
180
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 644
181181
Potential RNG Production
About
420 Bcf
181
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 645
182182
RNG Projects in North America
•Approx. 120 RNG
projects in North America
•13 of these are located in
the Pacific Northwest
182
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 646
183183
Oregon SB 344 DOE RNG Update
•Development of an inventory of RNG resources
•Characterization of the opportunities
•Identify barriers to production and utilization
•Policies to promote RNG and remove barriers
•Report due by September 2018
As a means toward feasible reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,
committee to provide recommendations to ODOE regarding:
183
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 647
184184
Washington SB 2580 RNG Bill
•Requires the Washington State University Extension Energy Program and the Department of
Commerce, in consultation with the Utilities and Transportation Commission, to submit
recommendations on how to promote the sustainable development of RNG to the Governor and
the Legislature by September 1, 2018
“Governor Inslee and Department of Commerce were pleased to request this bill, which received
near unanimous, bipartisan support from the Legislature,” said Peter Moulton, Energy Policy
Section Manager, Washington Department of Commerce.
•Requires the Department of Commerce, in consultation with natural gas utilities and other state
agencies, to explore the development of voluntary gas quality standards for the injection of RNG
into the state’s natural gas pipeline systems
•Reinstate and expand incentives in order to stimulate investment in biogas capture and
conditioning, compression, nutrient recovery, and use of RNG for heating, electricity generation
and transportation fuel
184
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 648
185185
Oregon and Washington RNG Studies
Source: ODOE RNG Feb. 22, 2018 Presentation
Oregon and
Washington
RNG Production
Potential Info
Coming Soon
Source: Washington State Department of Ecology, 2015.
Solid Waste in Washington State: 24th Annual Status Report 185
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 649
186186
Regional RNG Policies
•California SB 1383: Goal to reduce the economic uncertainty associated
with RNG. Requires LDCs to interconnect at least five dairy projects to the
natural gas pipeline system by January 1, 2018.
–Allows LDCs to recover the costs associated with projects
•British Columbia Green House Gas Reduction Regulation
–Allows for 5% RNG on LDC system
–Allows LDCs to invest and recover costs associated with projects
British Columbia
185
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 650
187187
Are Avista customers interested in RNG?
Source: Interest expressed through Rogue Valley Clean Cities Coalition per Dry Creek Landfill
Supply
Demand
•Rogue Disposal
•Rogue Valley Transit
•Southern Oregon University
•City of Medford
•City of Ashland
•US Postal Service
•United Parcel Service
•DSU Peterbilt
•Butler Ford
187
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 651
188188
What are the challenges & barriers?
•California RNG market ($30/Dth v. $2/Dth)
–Vehicle emission incentives shut-out other potential end users
–RIN market is volatile
–No forward pricing for RNG RINs in carbon market
–RFS future beyond 2022 uncertain
–Vehicle market may be approaching saturation in CA
–Too expensive for LDCs to purchase; LDCs could produce RNG cheaper
•Financing for producers challenging
–Future RNG value unknown
–Producer/LDC partnerships for product
•Policies for LDC cost recovery or purchase of not least cost fuel
source
188
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 652
189189
Next Steps for RNG
•Model various RNG scenarios for 2018 IRP
•Participate in ODOE SB 344 Advisory Council
•Support efforts with WSU and WA SB 2580
•Evaluate customer interest in RNG products
•Evaluate potential RNG projects in Avista
service territory
189
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 653
190
Power to Gas
Tom Pardee
Manager of Natural Gas Planning
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 654
191191
Power to Gas
•Power to Gas (PtG)is a process using power to separate water into
hydrogen and oxygen
•Both hydrogen and methane can be stored, as a % of gas, in the existing
gas grid or used in the mobility sector (blend up to 20%)
•PtG can help to balance excess power from intermittent sources like wind
and solar
•PtG can decarbonize the direct use of natural gas
•PtG economics will advance as more renewables are added and the
technology matures
•Short term and seasonal energy storage
•Stored in the existing gas pipeline
https://youtu.be/lQWIubQyaao191
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 655
192
PtG Process
Source: http://www.europeanpowertogas.com/about/power-to-gas
192 Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 656
193193
Hydrogen
•The energy factor of H2 Low Heating Value (LHV) is
roughly equivalent to a gallon of gasoline or 114,000btu
–This equates to 8.78 kg of H2LHV per Dth
•Most H2 is currently made from reforming natural gas
•The US Department of Energy expects that over the long
term the production of hydrogen will be increased with
production from renewables
193
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 657
194194
Water Electrolysis for PtG
•Water electrolysis is a mature and well understood
technology with 3 different types of electrolysis
technologies in these PtG processes
–Alkaline electrolysis (AEL)
•Most mature and well understood technology
•Best when coupled with an intermittent power supply
–Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM)
•Fast cold start with a high purity of H2
•Limited Life expectancy
–Solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC)
•High electrical efficiency
•Currently not as stable when paired with intermittent power supply
194
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 658
195
PtG Comparison
Benefits
•Cleans up the grid using
excess power
•Stores the energy for future
use
•Hydrogen is relatively safe as if
it is released it quickly dilutes
into a non-flammable
concentration
Obstacles
•High cost (currently) when
compared to energy in a Dth
combined with current prices of
natural gas
•Hydrogen can only be stored in
the pipeline as a % of gas though
this is primarily cause by end-use
restrictive conditions
–Risks increase significantly if
over 50% mix
•Hydrogen is lighter than air and
diffuses rapidly (3.8x faster than
natural gas) making it more
difficult to contain
195
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 659
Fuel Cell Technologies Office |5
Cost Status and Targets: Dispensed H2
Continued R&D is needed to reduce H2 production & delivery costs
High-
Volume*
Cost Status
$16/kg
to
$10/kg
$7.5/kg
to
$5/kg
$4/kg
Ultimate
Target
Early Market
Target
$7/kg
Targets
*high-volume projections assume economies of scale
(untaxed)
Low-
Volume
earlymarkets
using NG
LOW-VOLUME
Early market status based on low-cost
H2 from NG (<$2/kg) plus delivery &
dispensing
R&D innovations are essential to
reduce H2 delivery & dispensing costs
HIGH-VOLUME
Projected status based on large-scale
deployments of a portfolio of H2
production, delivery & dispensing
options
R&D of diverse, sustainable hydrogen
production pathways remains vital
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 660
197197
Next Steps
•Model at an estimated rate of $4 per kg of H2
based on DOE technical target by 2020
–This is the untaxed cost of hydrogen produced,
delivered, and dispensed to the vehicle
•It does not include off-board cooling or regeneration of
chemical hydrogen storage materials
–Source: https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/doe-technical-targets-onboard-hydrogen-storage-light-duty-vehicles
•Look for a consultant or ways to more accurately
estimate the cost of H2 in Avista’s territory
197
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 661
198
Initial Results and Proposed Scenarios
Kaylene Schultz
Natural Gas Analyst
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 662
199199
First Year Peak Demand Unserved
Washington
199
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 663
200200
First Year Peak Demand Unserved
Idaho
200
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 664
201201
First Year Peak Demand Unserved
Medford
201
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 665
202202
First Year Peak Demand Unserved
Roseburg
202
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 666
203203
First Year Peak Demand Unserved
Klamath Falls
203
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 667
204204
First Year Peak Demand Unserved
La Grande
204
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 668
205205205
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 669
206206206
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 670
207207207
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 671
208208208
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 672
209209209
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 673
210210210
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 674
211211211
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 675
212212212
*Assumes average yearly reduction starting in 2018 to achieve 2050 target of 80% below 1990 emissions
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 676
213213
2018 Proposed Scenarios
213
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 677
214214
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 : Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and
future potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018: DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
•June 1, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•June 29, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•July 2018 –TAC final review meeting (if necessary)
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
214
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 678
215
Questions?
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 679
1
2018 Avista Natural Gas IRP
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting # 4
May 10, 2018
Olympia, WA
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 680
22
Agenda
•Introductions
•AEG –Idaho and Washington DSM
•ETO –Oregon DSM
•Lunch
•Dynamic DSM
•Sendout Modeling
•Assumptions Review
•Solving for Unserved Demand
•Stochastics
•2016 IRP Action Items
•2018 Highlights
•Wrap-Up and Review schedule
2
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 681
33
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 :Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and future
potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018: DSM results, stochastic modeling
and supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
–June 21, 2018–TAC final review meeting to review final stochastics (if
necessary)
•July 2, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•July 13, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
3
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 682
Energy solutions. Delivered.
2018 CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
ASSESSMENT
Study Results, Prepared for the Avista DSM Advisory Group
May 10, 2018Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 683
| 5Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
CONTENTS
CPA-Related Action Plan Activities
•Measure Screening
•Measure Documentation
•Fully-Balanced TRC
•Barriers To DSM Uptake
Potential Study Summary
•LoadMAP Modeling Approach
•Levels of Potential
Potential Results
•Summary of Potential
•Comparison with Existing Programs
•Comparison with 2016 CPA
Sector-Level Potential, WA and ID (Supplemental Slide Deck)
•Residential
•Commercial
•Industrial
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 684
CPA-Related Action Plan Activities
Discussion of Action Items
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 685
| 7Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
New Activities for 2018 IRP
In the 2018 IRP, ensure that the entity performing the Conservation
Potential Assessment (CPA) evaluates and includes the following
information:
•All conservation measures excluded from the CPA, including those excluded
prior to technical potential determination;
•Rationale for excluding any measure;
•Description of Unit Energy Savings (UES) for each measure included in the CPA; specify
how it was derived and the source of the data;
•Explain the efforts to create a fully-balanced TRC cost effectiveness metric within the
planning horizon. Additionally, while evaluating the effort to eventually revert back to
the TRC, Avista should consult the DSM Advisory Group and discuss appropriate non-
energy benefits to include in the CPA.
In developing the 2018 IRP, discuss with the TAC:
•Discuss the barriers surrounding the uptake of DSM and how Avista can
improve an increased level of achievable potential.(percentage of baseline
dropped from 1.2 (economic) to 0.3 (achievable))
2017-2018 ACTION PLAN
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 686
| 8Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Exclusions from CPA
Recommended Activity:
In the 2018 IRP, ensure that the entity performing the Conservation
Potential Assessment (CPA) evaluates and includes the following
information:
•All conservation measures excluded from the CPA, including those excluded
prior to technical potential determination;
•Rationale for excluding any measure;
Handling in CPA:
•Very few measures were excluded from the current CPA prior to estimation of
technical potential. Those explicitly excluded were highly custom commercial
and industrial controls/process measures that were instead captured under a
retrocommissioning or strategic energy management program.
•Measures that did not pass the economic screen were still counted in within
achievable technical potential, allowing Avista to review for inclusion in
programs if portfolio-level cost-effectiveness allows.
MEASURE SCREENING
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 687
| 9Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Achievable Technical Top Measures in 2018
MEASURE SCREENING
Rank Measure / Technology Achiev.
Technical
UCT Achiev.
Economic Difference
1 Res -Furnace -Direct Fuel -AFUE 95%22,707 19,091 3,616
2 Res -Windows -High Efficiency -Double Pane LowE CL22 9,426 9,426 -1
3 Com -Thermostat -WiFi Enabled -Wi-Fi/interactive thermostat installed 7,719 0 7,719
4 Com -Boiler -AFUE 97%6,337 6,337 0
5 Res -Water Heater <= 55 gal. -Instantaneous -ENERGY STAR (UEF 0.87)4,193 4,193 0
6 Com -Retrocommissioning -HVAC -Optimized HVAC flow and controls 2,809 661 2,148
7 Res -Gas Furnace -Maintenance -Restored to nameplate 80% AFUE 2,203 0 2,203
8 Com -Water Heater -Solar System -Solar system installed 1,812 0 1,812
9 Com -Fryer -ENERGY STAR 1,775 1,775 0
10 Com -Destratification Fans (HVLS) -Fans Installed 1,494 0 1,494
11 Res -Thermostat -Wi-Fi/Interactive -Interactive/learning thermostat 1,343 1,344 -1
12 Com -Gas Boiler -Insulate Steam Lines/Condensate Tank 1,152 1,152 0
13 Res -Insulation -Floor/Crawlspace -R-30 1,132 1,132 0
14 Com -Gas Boiler -Hot Water Reset -Reset control installed 1,123 1,123 0
15 Com -HVAC -Demand Controlled Ventilation -DCV enabled 1,033 1,033 0
16 Com -Thermostat -Programmable -Programmable thermostat installed 937 0 937
17 Res -Water Heater -Solar System -40 sq ft supplemental solar system 858 0 858
18 Com -Insulation -Roof/Ceiling -R-38 847 850 -3
19 Com -Water Heater -TE 0.94 838 838 0
20 Com -Steam Trap Maintenance -Cleaning and maintenance 820 820 0
Subtotal 70,558 49,774 20,784
Total Savings in Year 86,389 61,279 25,110
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 688
| 10Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Documentation of Savings and Other Assumptions
Recommended Activity:
•Description of Unit Energy Savings (UES) for each measure included in the
CPA; specify how it was derived and the source of the data;
Handling in CPA:
•The measure list developed during the CPA includes descriptions of each
measure included. AEG will provide this as an appendix to the final report.
•Source documentation for assumptions, including UES, lifetime, and costs
(including NEIs) may be found in the “Measure Summary” spreadsheet
delivered as an appendix to the final report.
This will include the name of the source and version (if applicable)
MEASURE DOCUMENTATION
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 689
| 11Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Non-Energy Impacts
Recommended Activity:
•Explain the efforts to create a fully-balanced TRC cost effectiveness metric within the planning horizon. Additionally, while evaluating the effort to eventually revert back to the TRC, Avista should consult the DSM Advisory Group and discuss appropriate non-energy benefits to include in the CPA.
Addressed in CPA:
•As we will discuss throughout this presentation, TRC potential was estimated alongside UCT for each measure analyzed. In this study, we expanded the scope of non-energy/non-gas impacts to include the following:
1.10% Conservation Credit in Washington
2.Quantified and monetized non-energy impacts (e.g. water, detergent, wood)
3.Projected cost of carbon in Washington
4.Heating calibration credit for secondary fuels (12% for space heating, 6% for secondary heating)
5.Electric benefits for applicable measures (e.g. cooling savings for smart thermostats, lighting and refrigeration savings for retrocommissioning)
FULLY-BALANCED TRC
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 690
| 12Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Non-Energy Impacts
Recommended Activity:
•Discuss the barriers surrounding the uptake of DSM and how Avista can improve an increased level of achievable potential. (percentage of baseline dropped from 1.2 (economic) to 0.3 (achievable))
Addressed in CPA:
•In 2018, Washington achievable technical potential is at 40% of technical, compared to roughly 25% in the 2016 CPA.
•By 2038, Washington achievable technical potential is at 84% following the Council’s 85% long-term achievability assumption.
Idaho potential is slightly lower due to a program start-up period
•Many measures currently in Avista programs are on fast ramp rates (such as heating and food preparation equipment)
Others may be newer programs or experience substantial implementation barriers (contractors may be less willing to install measures that require crawlspace work)
•Barriers may possibly be alleviated by bundling measures, “cross-selling” additional measures to active participants, and assisting in market transformation initiatives
BARRIERS TO DSM UPTAKE
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 691
Potential Study Summary
Overview of Objectives, Approach, and Levels of Potential
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 692
| 14Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Space
Heating
75%
Second
ary
Heating
3%
Water Heating
19%
Appliances
1%
Miscellaneous
2%
Residential Gas Use by End Use,
2015
Overview
LOADMAP MODELING APPROACH
Market
Characterization
•Baseline studies
•Utility data
•Secondary data
Identify Demand-side Resources
•EE equipment
•EE measures
•Emerging tech.
Baseline
Projection
•Utility forecasts
•Standards andbuilding codes
Potential
Estimation
•Technical
•Achievable Tech.
•Economic Achiev.
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035
Dth
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
Residential Baseline Projection
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Dth
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
Residential Cumulative Natural Gas
Savings
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 693
| 15Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL
Technical
Achievable
Technical
UCT and TRC
Economic
Achievable
We estimate three levels of
potential. These are standard
practice for CPAs in the Northwest:
•Technical: everyone chooses the
efficient option when equipment fails
regardless of cost
•Achievable Technical is a subset of
technical that accounts for
achievable participation within utility
programs as well as non-utility
mechanisms, such as regional
initiatives and market transformation
•Achievable Economic is a subset of
achievable technical potential that
includes only cost-effective
measures. Tests considered within
this study include UCT, and TRC.
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 694
| 16Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Three Cost-Effectiveness Tests
ECONOMIC SCREENING
In assessing cost-effective,
achievable potential within Avista’s
Washington and Idaho territories,
AEG utilized two cost tests:
•Utility Cost Test (UCT): Assesses cost-
effectiveness from a utility or
program administrator’s perspective.
•Total Resource Cost Test (TRC):
Assesses cost-effectiveness from the
utility’s and participant’s
perspectives. Includes non-energy
impacts if they can be quantified and
monetized.
Component UCT TRC
Avoided Energy Benefit Benefit
Non-Energy Benefits*Benefit
Incremental Cost Cost
Incentive Cost
Administrative Cost Cost Cost
Non-Energy Costs* (e.g. O&M)Cost
*Council methodology includes monetized
impacts on other fuels within these categories
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 695
Potential Results
Combined Results Avista’s Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 696
| 18Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Cumulative and Incremental
Over the following slides, we will display potential both as a cumulative
impact on baseline as well as in annual increments
Cumulative potential includes the impacts of potential acquired from the
first year of the study period (2018) through the year of interest, including
effects of measures persistence
•We begin in 2018 for alignment with the current IRP period and to capture
similarities with Avista programs and accomplishments
•This is particularly important in Idaho where programs are restarting and
ramping up
Incremental potential summarizes new impacts realized in any given year
of interest, excluding the effects of measure repurchases
Due to the effect of repurchases, the sum of incremental savings will
always be greater than or equal to the cumulative potential in any given
year
DEFINITIONS OF POTENTIAL
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 697
| 19Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Achievability
All potential “ramps up” over time –all ramp rates are based
on those found within the NWPCC’s Seventh Power Plan
Achievable technical potential reaches 85% of technical by
the end of the study, consistent with the Council assumptions
•Please note Power Council’s ramp rates include potential
realized from outside of utility DSM programs, including regional
initiatives and market transformation
POTENTIAL ESTIMATES
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 698
| 20Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Total Avista Washington, Cumulative Potential
POTENTIAL ESTIMATES
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (Dth)17,221,900 17,418,177 17,878,550 18,517,630 19,498,948
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic 61,279 133,576 500,422 1,916,441 4,139,016
TRC Achievable Economic 33,893 73,100 276,379 1,297,679 2,420,649
Achievable Technical 86,389 186,065 655,389 2,405,890 4,901,043
Technical 217,202 434,037 1,189,331 3,251,362 5,804,041
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.4%0.8%2.8%10.3%21.2%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.2%0.4%1.5%7.0%12.4%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.5%1.1%3.7%13.0%25.1%
Technical Potential 1.3%2.5%6.7%17.6%29.8%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 699
| 21Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Total Avista Idaho, Cumulative Potential
POTENTIAL ESTIMATES
Scenario 2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Baseline Forecast (Dth)8,557,178 8,667,149 8,958,733 9,352,011 9,975,077
Cumulative Savings (Dth)
UCT Achievable Economic 26,340 58,352 235,414 965,825 2,107,684
TRC Achievable Economic 9,846 22,432 108,249 635,250 1,204,809
Achievable Technical 37,324 81,526 310,222 1,218,944 2,514,049
Technical 103,071 206,214 582,638 1,660,809 2,993,151
Energy Savings (% of Baseline)
UCT Achievable Economic Potential 0.3%0.7%2.6%10.3%21.1%
TRC Achievable Economic Potential 0.1%0.3%1.2%6.8%12.1%
Achievable Technical Potential 0.4%0.9%3.5%13.0%25.2%
Technical Potential 1.2%2.4%6.5%17.8%30.0%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 700
| 22Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Total Avista Washington, Cumulative Potential
As the largest sector, residential represents the largest portion of cumulative UCT achievable economic potential (AEP) throughout the study period.
The industrial sector only includes customers eligible for programs, which represent a very small percentage of total industrial consumption.
Some residential measures are not cost-effective on a TRC basis. This is due to the use of full measure costs rather than just a utility’s portion. Inclusion of a heating calibration credit and non-gas impacts somewhat mitigates this effect.
POTENTIAL BY SECTOR
UCT Savings (Dth)2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Residential 39,979 88,051 345,801 1,362,078 3,107,847
Commercial 20,731 44,393 151,733 547,834 1,021,211
Industrial 569 1,132 2,887 6,528 9,957
Total 61,279 133,576 500,422 1,916,441 4,139,016
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
UCT AEP Share of Total Savings by Sector
Residential Commercial Industrial
TRC Savings (Dth)2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Residential 14,920 32,308 139,361 824,953 1,573,939
Commercial 18,376 39,603 134,004 465,827 836,014
Industrial 597 1,188 1,785 6,899 10,696
Total 33,893 73,100 276,379 1,297,679 2,420,649
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 701
| 23Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Total Avista Idaho, Cumulative Potential
As the largest sector, residential represents the largest portion of cumulative UCT achievable economic potential (AEP) throughout the study period. This is slightly larger in Idaho than Washington.
The industrial sector only includes customers eligible for programs, which represent a very small percentage of total industrial consumption.
Some residential measures are not cost-effective on a TRC basis. This is due to the use of full measure costs rather than just a utility’s portion. Inclusion of a heating calibration credit and non-gas impacts somewhat mitigates this effect.
POTENTIAL BY SECTOR
UCT Savings (Dth)2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Residential 18,354 41,176 174,333 720,226 1,615,844
Commercial 7,417 16,035 58,160 239,015 481,888
Industrial 569 1,140 2,922 6,584 9,952
Total 26,340 58,352 235,414 965,825 2,107,684
TRC Savings (Dth)2018 2019 2022 2028 2038
Residential 3,744 9,243 62,156 458,445 833,329
Commercial 5,529 12,039 43,123 169,784 360,683
Industrial 573 1,150 1,738 7,021 10,797
Total 9,846 22,432 108,249 635,250 1,204,809
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
UCT AEP Share of Total Savings by Sector
Residential Commercial Industrial
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 702
| 24Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Washington, Comparison with Current Avista Programs
2018 UCT achievable economic estimates are lower than Avista’s 2017 accomplishments and 2018 Plan
•Furnaces potential is lower, but unit installations are similar to current levels -indicating a drop in unit energy savings due to new construction installations and the 2015 WSEC.
•Smart thermostat potential is mapped to the Council’s electric ramp rate
•Windows represent substantial potential, in line with 2017 accomplishments.
•ENERGY STAR home savings in Washington have are lower due to the impacts of 2015 WSEC –but not to the level of the RTF, who assumes everyone will be installing high-efficiency water heaters
Anecdotal evidence from builders indicates that this is not the case
RESIDENTIAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS
2018 UCT Achievable
Economic (Dth)
2017
Accomplish
2018
Plan
LoadMAP
2018 ATP
Furnace 40,003 28,600 19,091
Boiler 453 0 619
Water Heater 6,621 1,042 4,257
ENERGY STAR Homes 122 365 294
Smart Thermostat 4,884 2,340 1,344
Programmable TStat.0 55 0
Ceiling Insulation 540 280 1,072
Wall Insulation 218 240 904
Floor Insulation 66 266 1,135
Doors 40 63 0
Windows 8,911 15,940 9,426
Air Sealing 207 112 0
Duct Insulation 30 144 367
Duct Sealing 48 0 0
Showerheads 0 954 575
Miscellaneous 14 0 893
Total 62,156 50,402 39,979Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 703
| 25Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Effective since the middle of 2016, the 2015 WSEC results in a much more efficient new construction baseline
•Mandatory, very efficient, shell measures substantially reduce heating loads, which lowers furnace usage by 30%
e.g. 650*.7 = 455 therms
•Since usage is down, savings from upgrading to an efficient system are reduced proportionally
Credits are also required to meet section R406.2
•Although high efficiency equipment is allowed under this section, we have heard that builders are opting for cheaper methods of compliance, such as designing homes with interior ductwork
Impact on Residential New Construction
For a new home of average size:
•Ceiling Insulation: R49
•Wall Insulation: R21
•Floor Insulation: R30 –R38
•Window U-Factor: 0.28-0.30
•Air Leakage: 3-5 ACH50
For optional credits, the following may be utilized:
•94% AFUE furnace
•0.95 EF water heater
•1.75 GPM showerheads
•Inside ducting
RTF Analysis: https://rtf.nwcouncil.org/standard-protocol/new-homes
2015 WASHINGTON ENERGY CODE
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 704
| 26Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho, Comparison with Current Avista Programs
2018 UCT achievable economic
estimates are very similar to
Avista’s 2018 Plan and 2017
accomplishments
•Furnace potential is very similar
to current accomplishments –
mainly due to new construction
potential
•Smart thermostats and windows
pass UCT screening
•ENERGY STAR Homes reflect
Idaho building codes, which do
not lower space heating savings
due to a substantially tighter
building shell
RESIDENTIAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS
2018 UCT Achievable
Economic (Dth)
2017
Accomplish
2018
Plan
LoadMAP
2018 ATP
Furnace 12,783 11,716 11,816
Boiler 134 0 307
Water Heater 1,775 2,077 2,014
ENERGY STAR Homes 41 41 146
Smart Thermostat 1,628 1,040 664
Programmable Tstat.0 0 0
Ceiling Insulation 129 56 534
Wall Insulation 17 102 452
Floor Insulation 29 119 774
Doors 11 19 0
Windows 1,407 1,708 820
Air Sealing 87 48 0
Duct Insulation 56 153 181
Duct Sealing 59 0 0
Showerheads 0 233 286
Miscellaneous 2 0 362
Total 18,158 17,311 18,354Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 705
| 27Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Washington, Comparison with Current Avista Programs
Program potential is similar to current Avista programs
•LoadMAP UCT Achievable Economic is between 2017 accomplishments and 2018 plan
•Even with very high ramp rates, food preparation potential is lower than current programs (LO50Fast)
•Many HVAC-specific measures would be considered “Custom” but assigned to this category since that is where those savings are ultimately realized
•Industrial adds an additional 569 Dth to the “Custom” program in the 2018 LoadMAP Projections
C&I ACCOMPLISHMENTS
2018 UCT Achievable
Economic (Dth)
2017
Accomplish
2018
Plan
LoadMAP
2018 UCT
AEP
HVAC 14,000 3,214 11,925
Weatherization 1,657 2,080 1,694
Appliances 380 0 838
Food Preparation 3,987 4,956 2,761
Custom 2,381 10,000 4,082
Total 22,405 20,251 21,300
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 706
| 28Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Idaho, Comparison with Current Avista Programs
Program potential is higher than
2017 accomplishments and
similar to 2018 plan
•Idaho programs ramped up
between 2017 and 2018 due to
recent restarting of offerings
•Industrial adds an additional 569
Dth to the “Custom” program in
the 2018 LoadMAP Projections
(similar to WA when rounded)
C&I ACCOMPLISHMENTS
2018 UCT Achievable
Economic (Dth)
2017
Accomplish
2018
Plan
LoadMAP
2018 UCT
AEP
HVAC 1,390 805 3,769
Weatherization 874 940 941
Appliances 35 0 198
Food Preparation 1,359 1,490 1,045
Custom 0 4,100 2,033
Total 3,657 7,336 7,986
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 707
| 29Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
Residential, First-Year Potential
Comparison of first-year UCT Achievable economic potential between 2016 and 2018 CPAs for the residential sector
Measures mapped to current Avista programs similarly to current CPA
COMPARISON WITH 2016 CPA
Program Washington Idaho Notes2017201820172018
Furnace 9,524 19,091 3,209 11,816 Accelerated from 2017 per Avista accomplishments
Boiler 251 619 112 307
Water Heater 718 4,257 254 2,014 Accelerated from 2017 per Avista accomplishments
ENERGY STAR Homes 0 294 0 146 Now passing cost-effectiveness
Smart Thermostat 445 1,344 213 664 More mature measure, higher starting point
Programmable Thermostat 0 0 0 0
Ceiling Insulation 1,218 1,072 577 534
Wall Insulation 0 904 0 452 Now cost-effective
Floor Insulation 0 1,135 0 774 Now cost-effective
Doors 0 0 0 0
Windows 8,491 9,426 4,044 820 $/sqft is low as percent of measure cost, slowed in ID as a result,
but demand for measure appears high in WA
Air Sealing 0 0 0 0
Duct Insulation 0 367 0 181
Duct Sealing 939 0 0 0
Showerheads 1,627 575 736 286 No accomplishments in 2017, allowing time for program to
"ramp up"
Miscellaneous 4,387 893 1,992 362 Maintenance measures no longer cost-effective due to updated
labor cost calculations.
Total 27,598 39,979 11,138 18,354Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 708
| 30Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
C&I, First-Year Potential
Comparison of first-year UCT Achievable economic potential between
2016 and 2018 CPAs for the commercial sector
Custom measures reduce the most. This was due to retrocommissioning,
which was cost-effective in the prior CPA
COMPARISON WITH 2016 CPA
Program Washington Idaho Notes2017201820172018
HVAC 8,065 11,925 3,400 3,769 Similar to prior study, slightly accelerated
Weatherization 1,636 1,694 540 941
Appliances 953 838 453 198
Food Preparation 577 2,761 228 1,045 Heavily accelerating measures due to program accomplishments,
particularly fryers and ovens
Custom 12,130 4,082 4,997 2,033 Retrocommissioning was a top measure in prior CPA, but no
longer cost-effective after to UES update.
Total 23,362 21,300 9,618 7,986
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 709
| 31Applied Energy Group · www.appliedenergygroup.com
COMPARISON WITH 2016 CPA
Current Study:
2027 Potential
(Dth)
Prior Study:
2026 Potential
(Dth)
Change from
Prior Study (Dth)
Washington
Residential 1,131,013 497,074 633,939
Commercial 476,648 413,219 63,429
Industrial 5,974 4,050 1,924
WA Total 1,613,635 914,343 699,292
Idaho
Residential 596,450 208,875 387,575
Commercial 205,064 170,883 34,181
Industrial 6,034 4,411 1,623
ID Total 807,547 384,169 423,378
Avista
Residential 1,727,462 705,949 1,021,513
Commercial 681,712 584,102 97,610
Industrial 12,007 8,461 3,546
Avista Total 2,421,181 1,298,512 1,122,669
•10-year cumulative UCT Achievable
Potential increased substantially
•In the prior CPA, we gradually
increased ramp rates over time and
did not max out ramp rates at 85%
•This is causing a spike in mid-year
potential since many of the faster
rates are already at 85%
10-year Cumulative UCT Achievable Potential
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 710
Ingrid Rohmund, Senior Vice [e-mail]
Kurtis Kolnowski, Senior Project [e-mail]
Ken Walter, Senior Analyst
[e-mail] Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 711
Energy Trust of Oregon
Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Study
May 10th, 2018Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 712
Agenda
•About Energy Trust
•2017 Achieved Savings
•Resource Assessment
Overview and Background
•Methodology
•Results
•Questions/Discussion
34Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 713
Independent
nonprofit
Providing access
to affordable
energy
Generating
homegrown,
renewable power
Serving 1.6 million customers of
Portland General Electric,
Pacific Power, NW Natural,
Cascade Natural Gas and Avista
Building a
stronger Oregon
and SW
Washington
About us
35Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 714
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 715
Nearly 660,000
sites transformed
into energy
efficient, healthy,
comfortable
and productive
homes and
businesses
From Energy Trust’s investment of $1.5 billion in utility customer funds:
10,000 clean
energy systems
generating
renewable power
from the sun,
wind, water,
geothermal heat
and biopower
$6.9 billion in
savings over time
on participant
utility bills
from their
energy-efficiency
and solar
investments
20 million tons
of carbon dioxide
emissions kept
out of our air,
equal to removing
3.5 million cars
from our roads
for a year
15 years of affordable energy
37Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 716
607 average megawatts saved
121 aMW generated
52 million annual therms saved
Enough energy to power 564,000 homes
and heat 100,000 homes for a year
Avoided 20 million tons of carbon dioxide
A clean energy power plant
38Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 717
Energy Trust’s 2017 Achievements for Avista
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 718
Energy Trust Savings
Achievements –2017
•Our first full year serving
Avista customers in Oregon
•Overall achieved 107% of
goal
•Goal 318k Therms
•Achieved 341k Therms
•Anticipate continued success
as we move into year 2 and
Trade Ally networks expand
Energy Trust achieved 107% of goal in Avista service territory
8Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 719
Resource Assessment:
Purpose, Overview and Background
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 720
Resource Assessment (RA)
Purpose
•Provides estimates of energy
efficiency potential that will result in a
reduction of load on Avista’s system
for use in Avista’s Integrated
Resource Plan (IRP).
•The purpose is to help Avista
strategically plan future investment in
both supply side and demand side
resources.
•Estimates of energy efficiency
potential are in ‘gross’ savings, not
‘net’, as gross savings are what will
be reflected on the Avista system. 42
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 721
Resource Assessment Overview
•What is a resource assessment?
•Model that provides an estimate of energy efficiency resource potential
achievable over a 20-year period
•‘Bottom-up’ approach to estimate potential starting at the measure level
and scaling to a service territory
•Energy Trust uses a model in Analytica that was
developed by Navigant Consulting in 2014
•The Analytica RA Model calculates Technical, Achievable and Cost-
Effective Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential.
•Final program/IRP targets are established via a deployment protocol
exogenous of the model.
•Data inputs and assumptions in the model are updated in
conjunction with IRP about every two years.
43
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 722
Additional RA Background
44
•Informs utility IRP work & Energy Trust strategic and
program planning.
•Does not dictate source or measure mix of annual
energy savings acquired by programs
•Does not set incentive levels
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 723
20-Year Forecast Methodology
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 724
46
Not
Technically
Feasible
Technical Potential
Calculated
within RA
Model
Market
Barriers
Achievable Potential
(85%of Technical Potential)
Not Cost-
Effective
Cost-Effective Achiev.
Potential
Program Design &
Market Penetration
Final Program
Savings
Potential
Developed
with
Programs
& Market
Information
Forecasted Potential Types
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 725
47
20-Year IRP EE Forecast Flow Chart
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 726
RA Model inputs
48
Measure Level Inputs
Measure Definition and Application:
•Baseline/Efficient equip. definition
•Applicable customer segments
•Installation yype (RET/ROB/NEW)*
•Measure Life
Measure Savings
Measure Cost
•Incremental cost for ROB/NEW
measures
•Full cost for retrofit measures
Market Data (for scaling)
•Density
•Baseline/efficient equipment
saturations
•Suitability
Utility ‘Global’ Inputs
Customer and Load Forecasts
•Used to scale measure level
savings to a service territory
•Residential Stocks: # of homes
•Commercial Stocks: 1000s of Sq.Ft.
•Industrial Stocks: Customer load
Avoided Costs (provided by Avista)
Customer Stock Demographics:
•Heating fuel splits
•Water heat fuel splits
* RET = Retrofit; ROB = Replace on
Burnout; NEW = New ConstructionAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 727
Model Updates
•The RA Model is a ‘living’ model and Energy Trust makes
continuous improvements to it.
•Measure updates, new measures and new emerging technologies included in model
•More alignment with high-level NWPCC 7th Power Plan deployment methodologies to obtain cost-effective achievable savings within market sectors and replacement types.
•Cost-effective potential may be realized through programs or codes and standards.
49Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 728
Key Measure Inputs:
•Baseline: 0.60 EF gas water heater
•Replacement Type: Replacement on Burnout / New
•Measure Incremental Cost: $193
•Conventional (not emerging, no risk adjustment)
•Lifetime:13 years
•Savings: 31.5 therms (annual)
•Non-Energy Benefits: $5.95
•Customer Segments: SF, MF, MH
•Density, Saturation, Suitability
•Competing Measures: All efficient gas water heaters
Example Measure: Residential Gas Tank
Water Heater (>0.70 EF)
50
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 729
Incremental Measure Savings Approach
(Competition groups –Gas water heaters)
19
En
e
r
g
y

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
Th
e
r
m
s
)
EF = 0.67 EF > 0.70
En
e
r
g
y

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
Th
e
r
m
s
)
EF = 0.67 EF > 0.70
TRC 1.5
(Numbers are
for illustrative
purposes
only)TRC 1.1 Inc. SavingsAll Savings
Savings potential
for competing
technologies are
incremental to one
another based on
relative TRCs
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 730
•Energy Trust utilizes the Total Resource Cost (TRC) test
to screen measures for cost effectiveness
•If TRC is > 1.0, it is cost-effective
•Measure Benefits:
•Avoided Costs (provided by Avista)
•Annual measure savings x NPV avoided costs per therm
•Quantifiable Non-Energy Benefits
•Water savings, etc.
Total Measure Costs:
•The customer cost of installing an EE measure (full cost
if retrofit, incremental over baseline if replacement)
Cost-Effectiveness Screen
52
TRC =𝑴𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒆𝑩𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒇𝒊𝒕𝒔
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍𝑴𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒆𝑪𝒐𝒔𝒕
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 731
Cost-Effectiveness Override
in Model
Energy Trust applied this feature to measures
found to be NOT Cost-Effective in the model
but are offered through Energy Trust
programs.
Reasons:
1.Blended avoided costs may produce
different results than utility specific
avoided costs
2.Measures offered under an OPUC
exception per UM 551 criteria.
The following measures had the CE override
applied (all under OPUC exception):
•Res Insulation (ceiling, floor, wall)
•Res Tank Water Heater (0.67-0.69
only)53
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 732
Emerging Technologies
54
•Model includes savings potential from emerging technologies
•Factors in changing performance, cost over time
•Use risk factors to hedge against uncertainty
Residential Commercial Industrial
• Path 5 Emerging Super
Efficient Whole Home
• Advanced Ventilation
Controls
• Gas-fired HP Water
Heater
• Window Replacement
(U<.20), Gas SF
• DOAS/HRV -GAS
Space Heat
• Wall Insulation-VIP,
R0-R35
• Absorption Gas Heat
Pump Water Heaters
• DHW Circulation
Pump
• Advanced Insulation • Gas-fired HP HW
•Behavior Competitions • Gas-fired HP, Heating
• Zero Net Energy Path
• AC Heat Recovery,
HW
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 733
55
Risk Factors for Emerging Technologies
Risk Category 10%30%50%70%90%
Market Risk
(25%
weighting)
Requires new/changed
business model
Start-up, or small manufacturer
Significant changes to
infrastructure
Requires training of
contractors. Consumer
acceptance barriers exist.
Training for
contractors
available.
Multiple
products in
the market.
Trained contractors
Established business models
Already in U.S. Market
Manufacturer committed to
commercialization
Technical Risk
(25%
weighting)
Prototype in first
field tests.
A single or
unknown
approach
Low volume
manufacturer.
Limited
experience
New product
with broad
commercial
appeal
Proven technology in
different application
or different region
Proven
technology in
target
application.
Multiple
potentially
viable
approaches.
Data Source
Risk
(50%
weighting)
Based only on
manufacturer
claims
Manufacturer
case studies
Engineering
assessment
or lab test
Third party case study
(real world
installation)
Evaluation
results or
multiple third
party case
studiesAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 734
Results
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 735
57
Not
Technically
Feasible
Technical Potential
Calculated
within RA
Model
Market
Barriers
Achievable Potential
(85%of Technical Potential)
Not Cost-
Effective
Cost-Effective Achiev.
Potential
Program Design
& Market
Penetration
Final
Program
Savings
Potential
Developed
with
Programs
& Other
Market
Information
The RA Model estimates the in Technical, Achievable and Cost-Effective
Achievable potential
Final Program Savings Potential is deployed exogenously of the model using
the Cost-Effective Achievable potential from the RA model in combination with
program expertise on what can actually be achieved
Outputs of Potential Type
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 736
Overall Cumulative Savings Results –
Millions of Therms
58
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Technical Achievable Cost-effective
achievable
Energy Trust
Savings Projection
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

T
h
e
r
m
s
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 737
RA Model Results
Technical, Achievable, and Cost-Effective
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 738
Model Output Cumulative Potential by Type
and Year (2018-2037)
60
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

Th
e
r
m
s
Technical Achievable Cost-Effective AchievableAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 739
Cumulative Emerging Technology
Contribution –Millions of Therms
61
23%
23%
5%
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Technical Achievable Cost-Effective
Achievable
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

T
h
e
r
m
s
Conventional EmergingAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 740
Cumulative Potential by Sector and Type –
Millions of Therms
62
-
5
10
15
20
25
Residential Commercial Industrial
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

Th
e
r
m
s
Technical Achievable Cost-effective achievableAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 741
Proportion of Cumulative Cost-effective
Potential by End Use
63
Appliance
0.4%Behavioral
14%
Cooking
4%
Water Heating
31%
Other
2%
Process Heating
1%
Weatherization
20%
HVAC
28%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 742
Cost-Effective Override Effect –
Cumulative CE Potential (Millions of Therms)
64
Sector
Potential
with CE
Override
Potential with
NO CE
Override
Difference
(total CE
potential with
override)
Residential 10.63 8.33 2.3
Commercial 6.32 6.32 -
Industrial 0.26 0.26 -
Total DSM: 17.21 14.91 2.30
Measures with CE Override in Model
•Res Insulation (ceiling, floor, wall)
•Res Tank Water Heater (0.67-0.69 only)
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 743
Top-20 Measures –Cost-Effective
Cumulative Potential
65
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Res - Path 2 MECH + DHW Gas Heat Gas DHW
Com - SEM
Res - Smart Tstat - Gas FAF
Res -Window Replacement Tier 2 (U ≤ 0.27), Gas SPHT
Res - 0.70+ EF Gas Storage Water Heater
Com - Demand Control Ventilation
Res - Path 3 MECH + DHW 2 Gas Heat Ele DHW
Com - DDC HVAC Controls
Res - Window Replacement Tier 1 (U =0.28 -> 0.30),…
Res - Gas Fireplace - 70-74 FE
Com - DHW Condensing Tankless
Res - Attic insulation GAS SPHT (R13-R18 starting…
Res - Floor insulation GAS SPHT HZ1
Com - ZNE
Com - DOAS/HRV - GAS SH
Res - Attic insulation GAS SPHT (R0-R12 starting…
Res - Behavior Savings (RET)
Res - Showerhead, 1.50 GPM - Gas
Res - Wall insulation GAS SPHT HZ1
Com - Gas Combi Oven
MILLIONS OF THERMSAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 744
Final Savings Projections -
Deployed Results
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 745
67
Energy Trust sets the first five years of energy
efficiency acquisition to program performance and
budget goals.
Final Savings Projection Methodology
Years 1-2
•Program
forecasts –
they know
what is
happening
short term
best
Years 3-5
•Planning and
Programs
work together
to create
forecast
Years 6-20
•Planning
forecasts long-
term
acquisition rate
to generally
align NWPCC
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 746
20-Year Cumulative Potential by Type –
Millions of Therms
68
Technical
Potential
Achievable
Potential
Ach. Cost-
Effective
Potential
Energy Trust
Savings
Projection
Residential 20.0 17.0 10.6 5.7
Commercial 13.3 11.3 6.3 3.3
Industrial 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
All Sectors 33.5 28.5 17.2 9.2
Not all Cost-Effective Potential is projected to be achieved because:
•Lost opportunity with ‘Replacement’ and ‘New Constr.’ measures
•Hard to reach measures (e.g. insulation)
•Other market barriers identified by programs & new service territoryAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 747
Cost-Effective Avista Savings Projection 2018-2037
–Millions of Therms
69
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Gr
o
s
s

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

T
h
e
r
m
s
)
Mega-Project
Adder
RES-ROB
RES-RET
RES-NEW
Ind-ROB
Ind-RET
Com-SEM
Com-ROB
Com-RET
Com-NEW
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 748
Annual Projected Savings as Percent of Avista’s
Annual Load Forecasts
70
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
%
o
f

L
o
a
d

(
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

S
a
v
i
n
g
s
)
%
o
f

A
n
n
u
a
l

L
o
a
d

(
A
n
n
u
a
l

S
a
v
i
n
g
s
)

Annual % of Load Savings Cumulative % of Load SavingsAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 749
2018 Supply Curve –20 Year Technical Potential
by Levelized Cost of Energy ($/Therm)
71
Approximate
Cost-Effective
Cutoff (~$0.97)
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-$
3
.
5
4
-$
2
.
4
8
-$
0
.
6
0
$0
.
0
0
$0
.
0
0
$0
.
0
0
$0
.
0
1
$0
.
0
2
$0
.
0
3
$0
.
0
4
$0
.
0
5
$0
.
0
8
$0
.
1
5
$0
.
1
7
$0
.
1
9
$0
.
2
2
$0
.
2
6
$0
.
2
7
$0
.
2
8
$0
.
3
7
$0
.
3
9
$0
.
4
0
$0
.
4
6
$0
.
4
9
$0
.
6
6
$0
.
9
9
$1
.
0
0
$1
.
2
1
$1
.
4
4
$1
.
6
2
$1
.
7
0
$2
.
0
6
$3
.
1
6
$4
.
8
6
$6
.
2
9
$6
.
3
5
$7
.
5
7
$1
0
.
2
6
$1
4
.
0
7
$2
0
.
2
9
$8
5
.
1
8
$8
5
.
1
8
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

T
h
e
r
m
s
Levelized Total Resource Cost ($/Therm)Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 750
Thank you
Jack Cullen
Sr. Project Manager, Planning
[e-mail]
503.548.1596
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 751
7373
WUTC 2016 IRP comments
•Discuss with the TAC:
–The results of Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) coordination,
including non-energy benefits to include in the CPA.
–The appropriateness of listing and mapping all prospective distribution system
enhancement projects planned on the 20 year horizon, and comparing actual
projects completed to prospective projects listed in previous IRP’s.
73
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 752
74
Dynamic DSM
Kaylene Schultz
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 753
7575
Sendout and Dynamic DSM
•Action Plan: Avista’s 2018 IRP will contain a dynamic
DSM program structure in its analytics. In prior IRP’s, it
was a deterministic method based on Expected Case
assumptions. In the 2018 IRP, each portfolio will have
the ability to select conservation to meet unserved
customer demand. Avista will explore methods to enable
a dynamic analytical process for the evaluation of
conservation potential within individual portfolios.
75
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 754
7676
DSM Example
Com
Ind
WA
GTN
245
Measures
658
Measures
54 Measures
957 Total Measures
76
Res
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 755
7777
Needed Measures
WA GTN
WA NWP
ID GTN
ID NWP
Medford
GTN Roseburg
Klamath
Falls
Demand Areas
11 demand areas X 957 measures
per area = 10,527 needed measures
to solve
77
Medford
NWP La Grande
WA Both ID Both
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 756
7878
Sendout and DSM Issues
•Attempts to group measures
–Unique measures can have different curves and
device lives
–Intent of modeling DSM as a resource is to provide
individual resources the ability to fill demand along
the demand curve and not lump assumptions
–As the model works today, we would have to solve for
individual area and class, each in a separate model;
this would miss the mark on system optimization and
peak day events
78
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 757
7979
2020 Action Plan
•Avista will use the same software our electric
IRP team has as a solution to this action plan
–The solution is outside of the Sendout model in an
enhanced Excel solver, meaning we will rebuild our
system model in Sendout into excel
–This solution is known to our WA and ID commissions
as “PRiSM”, which is used to solve and create
Avista’s DSM goals in each jurisdiction
79
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 758
80
Modeling in Sendout
Kaylene Schultz
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 759
8181
Modeling Transportation In SENDOUT®
•Start with a point-in-time look at each jurisdiction’s resources
•Contracts –Receipt and Delivery Points
•Rates
•Contractual vs. Operational
•Contractual can be overly restrictive
•Operational can be overly flexible
•Incorporating operational realities into our modeling can defer
the need to acquire new resources
•Gas Supply’s job is to get gas from the supply basin to the
pipeline citygate
•Gas Engineering/Distribution’s job is to take gas from the
pipeline citygate to our customers
•The major limiting factor is receipt quantity –how much can you
bring into the system?
81
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 760
82
Modeling Challenges
•Supply needs to get gas to the gate
•Contracts were created years ago, based on demand projections at that
point in time
•Stuff happens (i.e. growth differs from forecast)
•Sum of receipt quantity and aggregated delivery quantity don’t identify
resource deficiency for quite some time however…..
•The aggregated look can mask individual city gate issues, and the
disaggregated look can create deficiencies where they don’t exist
•In many cases, operational capacity is greater than contracted
•Transportation resources are interconnected (two pipes can serve one
area)
•WARNING –we need to be mindful of the modeling limitations
82
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 761
8383
What is in SENDOUT®?
Inside:
•Demand forecasts at an aggregated level
•Existing firm transportation resources and current
rates
•Receipt point to aggregated delivery
points/“zone”
•Jurisdictional considerations
•Long term capacity releases
•Potential resources, both supply and demand side
83
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 762
8484
What is outside SENDOUT®?
Outside:
•Gate station analysis
•Forecasted demand behind the gate
•Growth rates consistent with IRP assumptions
•Actual hourly/daily city gate flow data
•Gate station MDDO’s
•Gate station operational capacities
84
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 763
85
Supply Interconnect Demand
Transport
Storage
85
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 764
86
Assumptions Review
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 765
8787
1.Customer annual growth rates:
2.Use per customer coefficients –3 year average use per HDD per customer
3.Weather planning standard –coldest day on record
WA/ID 82; Medford 61; Roseburg 55; Klamath 72; La Grande 74
Developing a Reference Case
Customer
count
forecast
Use per
customer
coefficients
Weather Reference
Case Demand
87
System Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.2%1.6%0.9%
Commercial 0.7%1.0%0.3%
Industrial -0.3%2.2%-3.3%
Total 1.2%1.5%0.8%
WA Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.2%1.5%0.9%
Commercial 0.7%1.0%0.4%
Industrial -0.8%1.9%-3.1%
Total 1.2%1.5%0.8%
ID Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.5%2.0%1.0%
Commercial 0.6%1.1%0.1%
Industrial 0.1%1.7%-2.7%
Total 1.4%1.9%0.9%
OR Base-Case High Low
Residential 1.0%1.3%0.6%
Commercial 0.7%1.1%0.4%
Industrial 0.1%4.7%-7.8%
Total 0.9%1.3%0.6%
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 766
8888
WA-ID Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and 2016 IRP
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
280,000
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
WA-ID Base 2016 WA-ID Base 2018
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.1%
2018 1.3%
≈
+16,500
88
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 767
8989
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
2
8
20
2
9
20
3
0
20
3
1
20
3
2
20
3
3
20
3
4
20
3
5
20
3
6
20
3
7
OR Base 2016 OR Base 2018
OR Region Firm Customers: 2018 IRP and 2016 IRP
IRP Avg.Annual Growth
2018-2037
2016 1.1%
2018 0.9%
≈ -4,700
89
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 768
9090
System Firm Customer Range, 2018-2037
Variable Low
Growth
Base
Growth
High
Growth
Customers 0.8%1.2%1.5%
Population 0.5%0.9%1.2%
90
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 769
91
Base Coefficients
July and August Average91
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 770
92
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
2018 Henry Hub Prices -Nominal
High HH Price…Low HH Price…HH Expected Price…
92
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 771
93
Price Elasticity: What does the research
show?
93
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 772
9494
Price Elasticity Proposed Assumptions
•The data is a mixed bag at best:
•8 of 9 super regions have statistically significant short
and long run elasticity's.
•At a state level only 10 of 50 show statistical
significant elasticity's.
•In some cases, the estimated elasticity's are positive.
–We incorporated a -.10 price elastic response for our
expected elasticity assumption as found in our Medford
and Roseburg service areas.
94
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 773
9595
Carbon Tax Summary
•ID –None
•OR –Cap and Investment Program SB1070
–Avista’s price assumption are based on CA cap and
trade program (2018 annual price of $14.53)
•Begins in 2021 at $17.86 and increases by 5% plus inflation
each year until reaching $51.58 in 2037
•WA –Governor Inslee proposed Carbon tax (SB
6203)
–Starts at $10 per MTCO2e in July 2019 and in 2021
adds $2 per year until capping at $30 in 2030.
95
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 774
9696
Carbon Price by Jurisdiction
*Idaho has no carbon price adder96
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 775
97
2018 Henry Hub
Expected Price
Including Carbon Adders by State
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$
p
e
r

D
t
h
ID - HH Expected Price
Nominal $
OR - HH Expected Price
Nominal $
WA - HH Expected Price
Nominal $97
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 776
98
Coldest on Record Dates
WA/ID –December 30, 1968
Medford –December 9, 1972
Roseburg –December 22, 1990
Klamath Falls –January 6, 2017
La Grande –January 23, 1996
Area Coldest in 20 Year
HDD
Coldest on Record
HDD
WA-ID 76 82
Klamath Falls 72 72
La Grande 66 74
Medford 52 61
Roseburg 48 55
98
Planning Standard Assumptions
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 777
9999
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 778
100100
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 779
101
Scenario Analysis
101
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 780
102102
2018 Proposed Scenarios
102
Proposed Scenarios Expected Cold Day 20yr Average Low Growth 80 % below 1990 emissions High Growth
INPUT ASSUMPTIONS Case Weather Std Case & High Prices
(Oregon and Washington
only)& Low Prices
Customer Growth Rate Low Growth Rate
Reference Case growth with
emissions 80% below 1990
target
High Growth Rate
Demand Side Management
Weather Planning Standard Historical Coldest Day Coldest in 20 years 20 year average
Prices
Price curve
RESULTS
First Gas Year Unserved
WA/ID N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2032
Medford N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2031
Roseburg N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2031
Klamath N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
La Grande N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2032
Scenario Summary
Most aggressive peak
planning case utilizing
Average Case
assumptions as a
starting point and
layering in coldest
weather on record.
The likelihood of
occurrence is low.
Evaluates adopting an
alternate peak weather
standard. Helps
provide some bounds
around our sensitivity
to weather.
Case most
representative of
our average
(budget, pga,
rate case)
planning criteria.
Stagnant growth
assumptions in order to
evaluate if a shortage
does occur. Not likely to
occur.
Reduction of the use of natural
gas to 80% below 1990 targets
in OR and WA by 2050. The
case assumes the overall
reduction is an average goal
before applying figures like
elasticity and dsm.
Aggressive growth
assumptions in order to
evaluate when our
earliest resource
shortage could occur.
Not likely to occur.
Reference Case Cust Growth Rates
None
$10-$30 WA
$17.86-$51.58 OR
$0 ID
Historical Coldest Day
Expected High
Yes
3 yr Flat + Price
Elasticity3 yr Flat + Price Elasticity
Low
Use per Customer
Carbon Legislation
($/Metric Ton)
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 781
103103
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –Washington/Idaho (DRAFT)
103
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 782
104104
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –Medford/Roseburg (DRAFT)
104
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 783
105105
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –Klamath Falls (DRAFT)
105
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 784
106106
Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
Expected Case –La Grande (DRAFT)
106
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 785
107107
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 786
108108
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 787
109109
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 788
110
Solving for unserved demand
Tom Pardee
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 789
111
When unserved demand does show up……
There are a few questions we need to ask:
1.Why is the demand unserved?
2.What is the magnitude of the short? (i.e Are we 1 Dth or 1000
Dth’s short?)
3.What are my options to meet it?
111
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 790
112112
When current resources don’t meet demand
what could we consider?
•Transport capacity release recalls
•“Firm” backhauls
•Contract for existing available transportation
•Expansions of current pipelines
•Peaking arrangements with other utilities (swaps/mutual assistance
agreements) or marketers
•In-service territory storage
•Satellite/Micro LNG (storage inside service territory)
•Large scale LNG with corresponding pipeline build into our service
territory
•Structured products/exchange agreements delivered to city gates
•Biogas (assume it’s inside Avista’s distribution)
•Hydrogen blend (assume it’s inside Avista’s distribution)
•Avista distribution system enhancements
•Demand side management
112
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 791
113113
New Resource Risk Considerations
•Does is get supply to the gate?
•Is it reliable/firm?
•Does it have a long lead time?
•How much does it cost?
•New build vs. depreciated cost
•The rate pancake
•Is it a base load resource or peaking?
•How many dekatherms do I need?
•What is the “shape” of resource?
•Is it tried and true technology, new technology, or yet to be discovered?
•Who else will be competing for the resource?
113
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 792
114114
Potential New Supply Resources
Considerations
•Availability
–By Region –which region(s) can the resource be utilized?
–Lead time considerations –when will it be available?
•Type of Resource
–Peak vs. Base load
–Firm or Non-Firm
–“Lumpiness”
•Usefulness
–Does it get the gas where we need it to be?
–Last mile issues
•Cost
114
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 793
115115
$ per kg vs $ per Dth
*1 kg is roughly equivalent to a gallon of gasoline
LHV
USDOE target is below $4 (excludes compression and delivery)
Source: https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/doe-technical-targets-onboard-hydrogen-storage-light-duty-vehicles
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimates hydrogen fuel prices from around
$8 -$10 per kg by 2020 to 2025 period.
$ per kg $ per DTh
$ 1.00 $ 8.78
$ 2.00 $ 17.55
$ 3.00 $ 26.33
$ 4.00 $ 35.11
$ 5.00 $ 43.88
$ 6.00 $ 52.66
$ 7.00 $ 61.44
$ 8.00 $ 70.21
$ 9.00 $ 78.99
$ 10.00 $ 87.77
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
$ per kg $ per DTh
115
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 794
116116
Supply Resources -Modeled
Additional Resource Size Cost/Rates Availability Notes
Unsubscribed GTN Capacity Up to 50,000
Dth GTN Rate Now Currently available unsubscribed capacity
from Kingsgate to Stanfield
Medford Lateral Exp 50,000 Dth /
Day
$35M capital + GTN
Rate 2018 Additional compression to facilitate more gas
to flow from mainline GTN to Medford.
*Hydrogen 20% of heat
content of a Dth
or 200,000 btu
$10 kg
1 LHV kg = 113,937
btu
2030 Roughly 20% of yearly gas demand to mix
with natural gas in current pipeline. Cost is
from the DOE target for cost of Hydrogen.
Costs from a consultant will be utilized in the
final document, but were unavailable for
modeling in time for TAC #4
*Renewable Natural Gas –
Landfill, Dairy, Waste Water,
Food waste to (RNG)
1,370 Dth / Day $10, $12, $14, $16/
Dth equivalent
2030 Dairy Farm estimate. Costs from a
consultant for each specific type of RNG will
be utilized in the final document, but were
unavailable for modeling in time for TAC #4
Plymouth LNG 241,700 Dth
w/70,500 Dth
deliverability
2018 Provides for peaking services and alleviates
the need for costly pipeline expansions.
-Pair with excess pipeline MDDO’s to create
firm transport
116
*Avista has retained a consultant to estimate costs for RNG & Hydrogen
and will be included in Avista’s 2018 IRPAvista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 795
117117
Future Supply Resources –Not Modeled
Other Resources to Consider
Additional Resource Size Cost/Rates Availability Notes
Co. Owned LNG 600,000 Dth w/
150,000 of
deliverability
$75 Million plus
$2 Million annual
O&M
2022 On site, in service territory liquefaction and
vaporization facility
Various pipelines –Pacific
Connector, Trails West, NWP
Expansion, GTN Expansion,
etc.
Varies Precedent
Agreement Rates
2020 Requires additional mainline capacity on
NWPL or GTN to get to service territory
Large Scale LNG Varies Commodity less Fuel 2020 Speculative, needs pipeline transport
In Ground Storage Varies Varies Varies Requires additional mainline transport to
get to service territory
117
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 796
118
Stochastic Analysis
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 797
119119
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 798
120120
Monte Carlo Simulations
•A way to estimate the probability of potential
future outcomes by allowing for a random set of
variables
•Uses historical price and weather data
•Avista’s Sendout model uses RMIX to help
choose an optimal resource stack and costs
under varying conditions
120
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 799
121121
Unserved Demand and Stochastic
Analysis
•Avista has no unserved demand in its resource
stack using a deterministic analysis in our
Expected case (coldest on record every year in
every location for 20 years)
•In order to show how we would solve for a
shortage we will utilize our high growth & low
prices case
–This models new potential resources and allows
Sendout to solve using an resource mix (RMIX)
option to select a least cost portfolio and run it
through a monte carlo simulation at 200 draws to
measure risk and uncertainty121
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 800
122122
Expected Case distribution
*200 Simulations
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 801
123
High Growth and Low Prices Scenario
(Example of determining additional resources to unserved demand)
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 802
124
Network Diagram for additional
resources
124
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 803
125
Spokane Weather Monte Carlo example
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Nov-17 Nov-19 Oct-21 Oct-23 Oct-25 Oct-27 Oct-29 Oct-31 Oct-33 Oct-35 Oct-37
He
a
t
i
n
g

D
e
g
r
e
e

D
a
y
s

(
H
D
D
'
s
)
1 27 54 155 156 187
125
Draw #Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 804
126126
Monte Carlo weather draw examples
Max of Draw 155
Max of Draw 156126
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 805
127127
AECO Monte Carlo Draw Example
127
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 806
128
High Growth & Low Prices
200 Draws
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
System Cost (thousands)
Ri
s
k

(
t
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
)
128
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 807
129
High Growth & Low Prices
Variability by Month by Gas Year
129
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 808
130
High Growth & Low Prices
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2.679 2.702 2.726 2.750 2.774 2.797 2.821 2.845 2.868 2.892 2.916 2.940 2.963 2.987
Cu
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
Fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
$ Billions
Frequency
Cumulative
Mean 90th 95th
5%
P(Cost>2.881)=5%
10%
P(Cost>2.845)=10%
Average: 2.783
StdDev: 0.054
Min: 2.664
90% percentile: 2.845
95% percentile: 2.881
Max: 2.970
Expected: 3.288
130
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 809
131
Supply by source and Area
December 20th
131
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dt
h

(
t
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
)
AECO Stanfield ID RNG_Dairy Kingsgate KlamFalls: RNG_Dairy
LaGrande: RNG_Dairy Malin RoseMed: RNG_Dairy Spokane STN2
Sumas WA RNG Landfill WYP: RMP JP Plymouth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 810
132
Supply by source and Area
February 15th
132
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Dt
h

(
t
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
)
AECO Stanfield ID RNG_Dairy Kingsgate
KlamFalls: RNG_Dairy LaGrande: RNG_Dairy Malin RoseMed: RNG_Dairy
Spokane STN2 Sumas WA RNG Landfill
WYP: RMP JP Plymouth
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 811
133133
Summary
•Plymouth, Kingsgate and RNG are selected as a
solve to unserved demand
•Another 200 draw simulation of the High Growth
& Low prices case will be done once final costs
are provided by consultant
*This information will be provided in the draft IRP unless the TAC would like to
review during an additional meeting
133
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 812
134
Key Issues / Document Discussion
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 813
135135
IPUC
•Staff believes public participation could be further
enhanced through “bill stuffers, public flyers, local media,
individual invitations, and other methods.”
•Result: Avista utilized it’s Regional Business Managers
in addition to digital communications and newsletters in
all states in order to try and gain more public
participation. Previous IRP’s relied on website data and
word of mouth.
–eCommunity newsletter was sent out on January 15, 2018
135
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 814
136136
OPUC
•Staff Recommendation No. 1
–Staff recommends in Avista's 2018 IRP that Avista pursue an updated methodology, wherein the low/high
gas price curves continue to be based on low (high) historic prices in a Monte Carlo setting, but are inflated
to match the growth rate (yr/yr) of the expected price curve. The resulting curves wouid be based on historic
prices and also produce symmetric .risk profiles throughout the time horizon.
–Result: Avista updated its method as recommended by the Oregon commission. This new method deviates
from the expected price by the following method:
•Pricing starts at the expected price for the first year
•Years 2-6 the high and low price deviate +/-6% per year from the expected price
•Years 7-11 the high and low price deviate by +/-3% per year from the expected price
•Years 12 –20 the high and low price deviate by +/-1.5% per year from the expected price
•By the 20 year mark the high and low deviate from the expected price by +/-58.5%
•Staff Recommendation No. 2
–Staff recommends that Avista forecast its number of customers using at least two different methods and to
compare the accuracy of the different methods using actual data as a future task in its next IRP.
–Result: Avista analyzed the data, but there was nothing material discovered the come up with a meaningful
forecast alternative.
136
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 815
137137
OPUC cont.
•Staff Recommendation No. 3
–Avista's 2018 IRP will contain a dynamic DSM program structure in its analytics.
•In, prior IRPs, it was a deterministic method based on Expected Case assumptions, in the 2018 IRP,
each portion will have the ability to select conservation to meet unserved customer demand, Avista will
explore methods to enable a dynamic analytical process for the evaluation of conservation potential
within individual portfolios and will work with Energy Trust of Oregon in the development of this
process and in producing any final results for its 2018 IRP for Oregon customers.
–Result –After attempting to get dynamic dsm into the Sendout model we determined an alternate method is necessary.
–1 –The total dsm measures has a maximum of 999 measures.If we were to model our areas as is combined with 400 measures by area we
would come up with a total need of 4400 measures.
–2 –If we were able to group them by dollars or efficiency levels it takes away the desired approach of measure by measure.
–3 –We have every bit of data both ETO and AEG can provide and the model is not acting appropriately and cannot determine a stopping point
for taking a single measure.This means it would take the maximum, if cheaper than gas, to fill the entire demand.Clearly, this won’t
work.There are other issues with the program we will discuss during TAC 4.Another factor in this decision is the vendor does not know the
dsm module and cannot provide assistance.We cannot see the code behind the application so it’s all a guess as to how to input the
measures.
–4 –The output data from ETO and AEG is very different and we need to understand it better before modeling.Avista has used AEG in some
form for the past 4 IRPs so we are comfortable with it. ETO, in Oregon only, has a different model and method and is still rather foreign to us.
•Staff Recommendation No. 4
–Staff recommends that Avista provide Staff and stakeholders with updates regarding its discussions and
analysis regarding possible regional pipeline projects that may move forward.
•Regional pipeline projects were discussed during TAC #3 meeting on March 29th, 2018. Avista does not have a shortage of resources for the 2018
Expected case. The regional pipelines take many years to place into service affording Avista the time to consider resources should they come into our
territory. New pipeline builds are expensive with unofficial quotes averaging $1 / Dth.
•Staff Recommendation No. 5
–Staff recommends that in its 2018 IRP process Avista work with Staff and stakeholders to
establish and complete stochastic analysis that considers a range of alternative portfolios for
comparison and consideration of both cost and risk.
•Result –This was shown in detail and with risk and cost in TAC 4 on May 10, 2018. Potential resources were
137
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 816
138138
OPUC cont.
•Staff Recommendation No. 6
–Environmental Considerations
•1. Carbon Policy including federal and state regulations, specifically
those surrounding the Washington Clean Air Rule and federal Clean
Power Plan;
–Result: Carbon Policy including the Clean Power Plan and Clean Air
Rule were both reviewed and included in TAC 2 Meeting materials on
2/22/2018. An indicator of where Avista’s carbon reduction
requirements under the CAR was also included. Since the CAR was
invalidated on 12/15/2017 in Thurston County Superior Court this
analysis is intended to meet the action item in addition to showing the
potential impacts of similar policies.
•2. Weather analysis specific to Avista's service territories;
–Result: A weather analysis was included and reviewed in TAC 2
meeting materials on 2/22/2018
•3. Stochastic Modeling and supply resources; and
•4. Updated DSM methodology including the integration of ETO
138
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 817
139139
WUTC
•Include a section that discusses impacts of the Clean Air Rule (CAR).
–In its 2018 IRP expected case, Avista should model specific CAR impacts as well
as consider the costs and risk of additional environmental regulations, including a
possible carbon tax.
–Result:
•Carbon Policy including the Clean Power Plan and Clean Air Rule were both
reviewed and included in TAC 2 Meeting materials on 2/22/2018. An
indicator of where Avista’s carbon reduction requirements under the CAR
was also included. Since the CAR was invalidated on 12/15/2017 in
Thurston County Superior Court this analysis is intended to meet the action
item in addition to showing the potential impacts of similar policies.
•For the 2018 IRP Avista is utilizing SB6203 from the WA Senate energy
committee on Feb. 1 as a proxy of a possible carbon tax in Washington
State.
139
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 818
140140
WUTC
•Provide more detail on the company’s natural gas hedging strategy,
including information on upper and lower pricing points, transactions with
counterparties, and how diversification of the portfolio is achieved.
–Avista’s natural gas hedging strategy was discussed during the TAC 2 Meeting on 2/22/2018.
The upper and lower pricing points in Avista’s programmatic hedges is controlled by taking
into consideration the volatility over the past year for the specific hedging period. This
volatility is weighted toward the more recent volatility. The window length and quantity of
windows is also a part of the equation. Avista transacts on ICE with counterparties meeting
our credit rating criteria. The diversification of the portfolio is achieved through the following
methods:
–Components: The plan utilizes a mix of index, fixed price, and storage transactions.
–Transaction Dates:Hedge windows are developed to distribute the transactions throughout
the plan.
–Supply Basins:Plan to primarily utilize AECO, execute at lowest price basis at the time.
–Delivery Periods:Hedges are completed in annual and/or seasonal timeframes. Long-term
hedges may be executed.
140
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 819
141141
WUTC cont.
•Ensure that the entity performing the CPA evaluates and includes the
following information:
–All conservation measures excluded from the CPA, including those excluded
prior to technical potential determination
–The rationale for excluding any measure
–A description of Unit Energy Savings (UES) for each measure included in the
CPA, specifying how it was derived and the source of the data
–The rationale for any difference in economic and achievable potential savings,
including how the Company is working towards an achievable target of 85
percent of economic potential savings.
–A description of all efforts to create a fully-balanced cost effectiveness
metric within the planning horizon based on the TRC.
141
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 820
142142
WUTC cont.
•Discuss with the TAC:
–The results of Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA)
coordination, including non-energy benefits to include in the CPA.
–The appropriateness of listing and mapping all prospective distribution
system enhancement projects planned on the 20 year horizon, and
comparing actual projects completed to prospective projects listed in
previous IRP’s.
•Provide a rationale for any difference in economic and achievable
potential savings
142
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 821
143143
2017 –2018 Avista’s Action Plan
•The price of natural gas has dropped significantly since the 2014 IRP.This is primarily due to the
amount of economically extractable natural gas in shale formations,more efficient drilling
techniques,and warmer than normal weather.Wells have been drilled,but left uncompleted due
to the poor market economics.This is depressing natural gas prices and forcing many oil and
natural gas companies into bankruptcy.Due to historically low prices Avista will research market
opportunities including procuring a derivative based contract,10-year forward strip,and natural
gas reserves.
•Result:After exploring the opportunity of some type of reserves ownership,it was
determined the price as compared to risk of ownership was inappropriate to go forward with
at this time.As an ongoing aspect of managing the business,Avista will continue to look for
opportunities to help stabilize rates and/or reduce risk to our customers.
Monitor actual demand for accelerated growth to address resource deficiencies arising from
exposure to “flat demand”risk.This will include providing Commission Staff with IRP demand
forecast-to-actual variance analysis on customer growth and use-per-customer at least bi-
annually.
Result:actual demand was closely tracked and shared with Commissions in semi-annual
or quarterly meetings.
143
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 822
144144
Avista’s 2020 IRP Action Plan
•Avista’s 2020 IRP will contain a dynamic DSM program structure in its
analytics. In prior IRP’s, it was a deterministic method based on based on
Expected Case assumptions. In the 2020 IRP, each portfolio will have the
ability to select conservation to meet unserved customer demand. Avista
will explore methods to enable a dynamic analytical process for the
evaluation of conservation potential within individual portfolios.
•Work with Staff to get clarification on types of natural gas distribution system
analyses for possible inclusion in the 2020 IRP
•Work with Staff to clarify types of distribution system costs for possible
inclusion in our avoided cost calculation
144
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 823
145145
Highlights of the 2018 IRP
•No resource needs in the Expected Case
•Higher long term customer growth rates
•Increased DSM potential and resultant avoided
costs
•Carbon costs broken out by jurisdiction
•Higher for WA and OR as compared to the 2016 IRP
•Washington and Idaho separated in Sendout
•Lower use per customer
145
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 824
146146
2018 IRP Timeline
•August 31, 2017 –Work Plan filed with WUTC
•January through May 2018 –Technical Advisory Committee
meetings. Meeting topics will include:
–TAC 1: Thursday, January 25, 2018: TAC meeting expectations, review of
2016 IRP acknowledgement letters, customer forecast, and demand-side
management (DSM) update.
–TAC 2: Thursday, February 22, 2018: Weather analysis, environmental
policies, market dynamics, price forecasts, cost of carbon.
–TAC 3: Thursday, March 29, 2018 :Distribution, supply-side resources
overview, overview of the major interstate pipelines, RNG overview and future
potential resources.
–TAC 4: Thursday, May 10, 2018:DSM results, stochastic modeling and
supply-side options, final portfolio results, and 2020 Action Items.
–June 21, 2018–TAC final review meeting to review final stochastics (if
necessary)
•July 2, 2018 –Draft of IRP document to TAC
•July 13, 2018 –Comments on draft due back to Avista
•August 31, 2018 –File finalized IRP document
146
Avista Corp 2018 Natural Gas IRP Appendix 825