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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20121011Theis DI.pdfDAVID J. MEYER VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR REGULATORY & GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS AVISTA CORPORATION P.O. BOX 3727 1411 EAST MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220-3727 TELEPHONE: (509) 495-4316 FACSIMILE: (509) 495-4361 DAVID.MEYER@AVISTACORP.COM BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION ) CASE NO. AVU-E-12-08 OF AVISTA CORPORATION FOR THE ) CASE NO. AVU-G-12-07 AUTHORITY TO INCREASE ITS RATES ) AND CHARGES FOR ELECTRIC AND ) NATURAL GAS SERVICE TO ELECTRIC AND ) DIRECT TESTIMONY NATURAL GAS CUSTOMERS IN THE STATE ) OF OF IDAHO ) MARK THIES ) FOR AVISTA CORPORATION (ELECTRIC AND NATURAL GAS) Thies, Di 1 Avista Corporation I. INTRODUCTION 1 Q. Please state your name, business address, and 2 present position with Avista Corp. 3 A. My name is Mark Thies. My business address is 4 1411 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington. I am 5 employed by Avista Corporation as Senior Vice President 6 and Chief Financial Officer. 7 Q. Would you please describe your education and 8 business experience? 9 A. I received a Bachelor of Arts degree in 1986, 10 with majors in Accounting and Business Administration from 11 Saint Ambrose College in Davenport, Iowa, and became a 12 Certified Public Accountant in 1987. I have extensive 13 experience in finance, risk management, accounting and 14 administration within the utility sector. 15 I joined Avista in September of 2008 as Senior Vice 16 President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Prior to 17 joining Avista, I was Executive Vice President and CFO for 18 Black Hills Corporation, a diversified energy company, 19 providing regulated electric and natural gas service to 20 areas of South Dakota, Wyoming and Montana. I joined 21 Black Hills Corporation in 1997 upon leaving InterCoast 22 Energy Company in Des Moines, Iowa, where I was the 23 Thies, Di 2 Avista Corporation manager of accounting. Previous to that I was a senior 1 auditor for Arthur Andersen & Co. in Chicago, Illinois. 2 Q. What is the scope of your testimony in this 3 proceeding? 4 A. I will provide a financial overview of the 5 Company and will explain the overall rate of return 6 proposed by the Company in this filing for its electric 7 and natural gas operations. The proposed rate of return 8 is derived from Avista’s total cost of long-term debt and 9 common equity, weighted in proportion to the proposed 10 capital structure. 11 I will address the proposed capital structure, as 12 well as the proposed cost of total debt and equity in this 13 filing. Dr. Avera, on behalf of the Company, will provide 14 additional testimony related to the appropriate return on 15 equity for Avista, based on the specific circumstances of 16 the Company, together with the current state of the 17 financial markets. 18 In brief, I will provide information that shows: 19 Avista’s plans call for significant capital 20 expenditure requirements for the utility over 21 the next two years to assure reliability in 22 serving our customers and meeting customer 23 growth. Capital expenditures of approximately 24 $500 million are planned for 2012 and 2013 to 25 fund customer growth, investment in generation 26 upgrades and transmission and distribution 27 facilities, as well as necessary maintenance and 28 Thies, Di 3 Avista Corporation replacements of our natural gas utility systems. 1 Capital expenditures of approximately $1.2 2 billion are planned for the five-year period 3 ending December 31, 2016. Avista needs adequate 4 cash flow from operations to fund these 5 requirements, together with access to capital 6 from external sources under reasonable terms. 7 8 Avista’s corporate credit rating from Standard & 9 Poor’s (S&P) is currently BBB and from Moody’s 10 Investors Service (Moody’s) it is Baa2. Avista 11 must operate at a level that will support a 12 solid investment grade corporate credit rating 13 in order to access capital markets at reasonable 14 rates, which will result in lower long-term 15 borrowing costs to customers. A supportive 16 regulatory environment is an important 17 consideration by the rating agencies when 18 reviewing Avista. Maintaining solid credit 19 metrics and credit ratings will also help 20 support a stock price necessary to issue equity 21 under reasonable terms to fund capital 22 requirements. 23 24 The Company is proposing an overall rate of 25 return of 8.46%, including a 50.0% equity ratio 26 and a 10.90% return on equity. Our proforma 27 cost of debt is 6.02%. 28 29 The Company’s ongoing efforts to carefully manage its 30 operating costs and capital expenditures are an important 31 part of our performance, but are not sufficient without 32 revenues from the general rate request for our electric 33 and natural gas businesses in these cases. Sufficient 34 cash flows from operations can only be achieved with the 35 support of regulators in allowing the timely recovery of 36 costs and the ability to earn a reasonable return on 37 investment. 38 Thies, Di 4 Avista Corporation A table of contents for my testimony is as follows: 1 Description Page 2 I. Introduction 1 3 II. Financial Overview 4 4 III. Credit Ratings 10 5 IV. Cash Flow 19 6 V. Capital Structure 24 7 VI. Cost of Debt 26 8 VII. Cost of Common Equity 27 9 10 Q. Are you sponsoring any exhibits with your direct 11 testimony? 12 A. Yes. I am sponsoring Exhibit 2, Schedule 1, 13 pages 1 through 5, and confidential Exhibit 2, Schedule 2, 14 which were prepared under my direction. Avista’s credit 15 ratings by S&P and Moody’s are summarized on page 1 of 16 Exhibit 2, Schedule 1, and Avista’s actual capital 17 structure at June 30, 2012, and pro forma capital 18 structure at December 31, 2013 are included in Exhibit 2, 19 Schedule 1, page 2. Supporting information is included on 20 pages 2, 3 and 4, of Exhibit 2, Schedule 1 and 21 confidential Exhibit 2, Schedule 2. 22 23 II. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW 24 Q. Please provide an overview of Avista's financial 25 situation. 26 Thies, Di 5 Avista Corporation A. Avista’s goal is to operate at a level that will 1 support a solid corporate credit rating of at least the 2 current rating of BBB with a long-term goal of operating 3 at a Corporate Credit rating of BBB+. Operating at a BBB+ 4 rating level will result in lower long-term borrowing 5 costs to customers. We expect that a continued focus on 6 the regulated utility, conservative financing strategies 7 (including the issuance of common stock) and a supportive 8 regulatory environment will contribute toward an upgrade 9 to a BBB+ credit rating. 10 We are operating the business efficiently to keep 11 costs as low as practicable for our customers, while at 12 the same time ensuring that our energy service is 13 reliable, and customers are satisfied. An efficient, 14 well-run business is not only important to our customers, 15 but also to investors. Additionally, the Company is 16 working through regulatory processes to recover our costs 17 in a timely manner so that earned returns are closer to 18 those allowed by regulators in each of the states we 19 serve. This is one of the key determinants from the 20 rating agencies’ standpoint when they are reviewing our 21 overall credit ratings. 22 Q. What steps has the Company taken to improve its 23 financial health? 24 Thies, Di 6 Avista Corporation A. We are working to assure there are adequate 1 funds for operations, capital expenditures and debt 2 maturities. We have extended the weighted average 3 maturity of long-term debt while maintaining the overall 4 cost of long-term debt. During 2010, 2011 and 2012, the 5 Company priced and issued long-term debt at historically 6 low rates. 7 We obtain a portion of our capital requirements 8 through issuing common equity. In 2011, we issued $26.5 9 million of equity and in 2010, we issued $46.2 million. 10 We are planning to issue up to $45 million of common stock 11 in 2012, in order to maintain our capital structure at an 12 appropriate level for our business. 13 We are anticipating the cost of debt to rise slightly 14 to 6.02% by December 31, 2013, from 5.94% as of June 30, 15 2012. This increase is primarily due to the forecasted 16 2013, thirty year issuance of $90 million secured bonds, 17 of which a portion of the proceeds will be used to 18 refinance the three year, 1.68%, $50 million secured bonds 19 maturing in 2013 (originally issued in 2010). 20 The Company entered into forward-starting interest 21 rate swaps for a total of $160 million as a hedge on a 22 portion of the interest payments on forecasted issuances 23 of long-term debt in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The Company 24 Thies, Di 7 Avista Corporation continues to analyze the possibility of entering into 1 additional transactions in order to lock in the interest 2 rate on forecasted debt issuances to mitigate interest 3 rate risk. 4 Additionally, the Company filed a finance application 5 with the Commission to support the issuance of future debt 6 issuances. The Commission approved this application in 7 Order No. 32338. This order provides support for the $90 8 million debt securities forecasted to be issued in 2013. 9 Q. In addition to having credit ratings that will 10 allow Avista to attract debt capital under reasonable 11 terms, is it also necessary to attract capital from equity 12 investors? 13 A. It is absolutely essential. Avista has two 14 primary sources of external capital: debt and equity 15 investors. As of June 30, 2012, Avista had approximately 16 $2.4 billion of debt and equity. Approximately half of 17 that investment is funded by debt holders, and the other 18 half is funded by equity investors and retained earnings. 19 There tends to be significant emphasis on maintaining 20 credit metrics and credit ratings that will provide access 21 to debt capital under reasonable terms, however, access to 22 equity capital is equally important. In fact, equity 23 investors also focus on cash flows, capital structure and 24 Thies, Di 8 Avista Corporation liquidity, as do debt investors. The level of common 1 equity in the Company’s capital structure can have a 2 direct impact on its credit rating. 3 Additional equity capital generally comes in two 4 forms: retained earnings and new stock issuances. Retained 5 earnings represent the annual earnings (return on equity) 6 of the Company that is not paid out to investors in 7 dividends. The retained earnings are reinvested by the 8 Company in utility capital expenditures to serve customers 9 and other capital/investments, which avoids the need to 10 issue new debt or new stock. Occasionally, it’s necessary 11 to issue common equity in order to maintain a balanced 12 debt and equity capital structure. A balanced capital 13 structure allows Avista access to both debt and equity 14 markets under reasonable terms, on a sustainable basis. 15 As previously noted, our capital requirements for the next 16 five years are sizable at approximately $1.2 billion, 17 which will need to be funded with both debt and equity. 18 Q. Are the debt and equity capital markets a 19 competitive market? 20 A. Yes. Our ability to attract new capital, 21 especially equity capital, under reasonable terms is 22 dependent on our ability to offer a risk/reward 23 opportunity that is better than the equity investors’ 24 Thies, Di 9 Avista Corporation other alternatives. We are competing with not only other 1 utilities, but businesses in other sectors of the economy. 2 Demand for the stock supports the stock price, which 3 provides the opportunity to issue additional stock under 4 reasonable terms to fund capital investment requirements. 5 To the extent that the equity investor holds a 6 diversified portfolio of companies that includes utilities 7 and other energy companies, we would be competing with 8 those companies to attract those equity dollars. 9 Q. What is Avista doing to attract equity 10 investment? 11 A. Avista is carrying a capital structure that 12 provides the opportunity to have financial metrics that 13 offer a risk/reward proposition that is competitive and/or 14 attractive for equity holders. 15 We have steadily increased our dividend for common 16 shareholders over the past several years, to work toward a 17 dividend payout ratio that is comparable to other 18 utilities in the industry. This is an essential element 19 in providing a competitive risk/reward opportunity for 20 equity investors. 21 We are employing tracking mechanisms such as the 22 Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) and Purchased Gas Adjustment 23 (PGA), approved by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission 24 Thies, Di 10 Avista Corporation (the Commission), to balance the risk of owning and 1 operating the business in a manner that places us in a 2 position to offer a risk/reward opportunity that is 3 competitive with not only other utilities, but with 4 businesses in other sectors of the economy. 5 Dr. Avera provides additional testimony related to 6 the appropriate return on equity for Avista that would 7 allow the Company access to equity capital under 8 reasonable terms, and on a sustainable basis. 9 10 III. CREDIT RATINGS 11 Q. How important are credit ratings for Avista? 12 A. Utilities require ready access to capital 13 markets in all types of economic environments. The nature 14 of our business with long-term capital projects, our 15 obligation to serve, and the potential for significant 16 volatility in fuel and purchased power markets, 17 necessitates the need to have the ability to go to the 18 financial markets under reasonable terms on a regular 19 basis. In order to have this ability, investors need to 20 understand the risks related to any of their investments. 21 To help investors assess the creditworthiness of a 22 company, Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating 23 Organizations (rating agencies) developed their own 24 Thies, Di 11 Avista Corporation standardized ratings scale, otherwise known as credit 1 ratings. These credit ratings indicate the 2 creditworthiness of a company and assist investors in 3 determining if they want to invest in a Company. 4 Q. Please summarize the credit ratings for Avista’s 5 debt securities. 6 A. Two of the most widely recognized rating 7 agencies are S&P and Moody’s. Avista has credit ratings 8 assigned by both S&P and Moody’s. Avista’s credit ratings 9 are summarized on page 1 of Exhibit 2, Schedule 1. 10 Q. Please explain the implications of the credit 11 ratings in terms of the Company’s ability to access 12 capital markets. 13 A. Credit ratings impact investor demand and 14 expected returns. More specifically, when the Company 15 issues debt, the credit rating can affect the 16 determination of the interest rate at which the debt will 17 be issued. The credit rating can affect the type of 18 investor who will be interested in purchasing the debt. 19 For each type of investment a potential investor could 20 make, the investor looks at the quality of that investment 21 in terms of the risk they are taking and the priority they 22 would have for payment of principal and interest in the 23 event that the organization experiences severe financial 24 Thies, Di 12 Avista Corporation stress. Investment risks include, but are not limited to, 1 liquidity risk, market risk, operational risk, and credit 2 risk. These risks are considered by the rating agencies 3 and investors in assessing our creditworthiness. 4 In challenging credit markets, where investors are 5 less likely to buy corporate bonds (as opposed to U.S. 6 Government bonds), a higher credit rating will attract 7 more investors, and a lower credit rating could reduce or 8 eliminate the number of potential investors. Thus, lower 9 credit ratings may result in a company having more 10 difficulty accessing financial markets and/or incur 11 significantly higher costs when accessing capital. 12 Q. What credit rating does Avista Corporation 13 believe is appropriate? 14 A. The move to investment grade for Avista was a 15 significant step in improving the Company’s ability to 16 access capital at a reasonable cost. It took 17 approximately six years for the Company to regain its 18 investment grade rating from S&P and Moody’s after it was 19 downgraded during the Energy Crisis. The difference 20 between investment grade and non-investment grade is not 21 only a matter of debt pricing, but also the ability to 22 access markets. 23 Thies, Di 13 Avista Corporation As shown in Illustration No. 1, Avista’s current S&P 1 corporate credit rating of BBB, is below the average 2 credit rating for U.S. Regulated Combined Gas and Electric 3 Utilities. The Company’s long-term goal is to operate at 4 a credit rating of at least the utility average (BBB+). 5 Operating at a BBB+ would likely attract additional 6 investors, lower the Company’s debt pricing, and makes us 7 more competitive with other utilities. 8 Illustration No. 1: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Thies, Di 14 Avista Corporation Financially healthy utilities have lower financing costs 1 which, in turn, benefit customers. In addition, 2 financially healthy utilities are better able to invest in 3 the required infrastructure over time to serve their 4 customers, and to withstand the challenges facing the 5 industry. 6 Q. What are the key credit factors S&P uses to 7 establish credit ratings? 8 A. Credit factors utilized by S&P to establish 9 credit ratings typically include an assessment of a 10 company’s Business Risk and Financial Risk. The Business 11 Risk includes such items as country risk, industry risk, 12 competitive position, and profitability. The Business 13 Risk analysis is supported by statistics; however, it also 14 involves subjective judgment. S&P assigns a Business Risk 15 profile to each company that may range from the lowest of 16 “Vulnerable” to the highest of “Excellent”. Avista’s 17 Business risk profile is currently Excellent. 18 Financial risk is assessed primarily through 19 quantitative means. S&P’s financial ratio benchmarks used 20 to rate companies such as Avista are set forth in 21 Illustration No. 2 below. 22 Thies, Di 15 Avista Corporation Illustration No. 2: 1 2 The ratios above are utilized to determine the 3 financial risk profile. Currently, Avista is in the 4 Aggressive category. The financial risk category along 5 with the business risk profile is then utilized in 6 Illustration No. 3 below to determine a company’s rating. 7 S&P currently has Avista’s corporate credit rating as BBB, 8 based upon an Aggressive financial risk profile and 9 Excellent business risk profile. 10 Thies, Di 16 Avista Corporation Illustration No. 3: 1 2 3 Moody’s uses a similar methodology to analyze and 4 determine utility credit ratings. 5 Q. Please describe how S&P’s Financial Risk ratios 6 are calculated and what they mean? 7 A. The first ratio, Funds from operations/total 8 debt (%), calculates the amount of cash flow from 9 operations as a percent of total debt. The ratio 10 indicates the company’s ability to fund debt obligations. 11 The second ratio, Total debt/total capital (%), is the 12 amount of debt in our total capital structure. The ratio 13 is an indication of the extent to which the company is 14 using debt to finance its operations. S&P looks at many 15 other financial ratios; however, these are the two most 16 Thies, Di 17 Avista Corporation important ratios they use when analyzing our financial 1 profile. 2 Q. Do rating agencies make adjustments to the 3 financial ratios that are calculated directly from the 4 financial statements of the Company? 5 A. Yes. Rating agencies make adjustments to debt 6 to factor in off-balance sheet commitments (e.g., 7 purchased power agreements and the unfunded status of 8 pension and other post-retirement benefits) that 9 negatively impact the ratios. For example, in 2011 S&P 10 made adjustments to Avista’s debt totaling approximately 11 $148 million primarily related to purchased power 12 contracts, post-retirement benefits, and non-recourse 13 debt. The adjusted financial ratios for Avista are 14 included in Illustration No. 2 above. 15 Q. What other risks are Avista and the utility 16 sector facing that may impact credit ratings? 17 A. Avista’s credit ratings are impacted by risks 18 that could negatively affect the Company’s cash flows. 19 These risks include, but are not limited to, weather 20 conditions, the effect of state and federal regulatory 21 decisions on the ability to recover costs and earn a 22 reasonable return, changes in wholesale energy prices, 23 local and global economic conditions, access to capital 24 Thies, Di 18 Avista Corporation markets at a reasonable cost, potential effects of 1 legislation or administrative rulemaking, volatility and 2 illiquidity in the wholesale energy market, and delays or 3 changes in construction costs. 4 Credit ratings for the utility sector are also 5 adversely impacted by large capital expenditures for new 6 generation, transmission and distribution facilities, and 7 environmental compliance. The utility sector is in a 8 cycle of significant capital spending, which will likely 9 be funded by significant issuances of debt and equity. 10 This will likely affect the competition for financial 11 capital. 12 The increased capital spending needs and resulting 13 increased debt and equity issuances make regulatory 14 support for full and timely recovery of prudently incurred 15 costs critical to the utility sector. 16 Q. How important is the regulatory environment in 17 which a Company operates? 18 A. The regulatory environment in which a company 19 operates is a major qualitative factor in determining a 20 company’s creditworthiness. 21 22 S&P stated the following: 23 Regulation is the most critical aspect that 24 underlies regulated integrated utilities’ 25 Thies, Di 19 Avista Corporation creditworthiness. Regulatory decisions can 1 profoundly affect financial performance. Our 2 assessment of the regulatory environments in 3 which a utility operates is guided by certain 4 principles, most prominently consistency and 5 predictability, as well as efficiency and 6 timeliness. For a regulatory process to be 7 considered supportive of credit quality, it must 8 limit uncertainty in the recovery of a utility’s 9 investment. They must also eliminate, or at 10 least greatly reduce, the issue of rate-case 11 lag, especially when a utility engages in a 12 sizable capital expenditure program.1 13 Due to the major capital expenditures planned by 14 Avista, a supportive regulatory environment is essential. 15 16 IV. CASH FLOW 17 Q. What are the Company’s sources to fund capital 18 requirements? 19 A. The Company utilizes cash flow from operations, 20 long-term debt and common stock issuances to fund its 21 capital expenditures. Additionally, on an interim basis, 22 the Company utilizes its credit facility to fund capital 23 needs until longer-term financing can be obtained. 24 Q. What are the Company’s near-term capital 25 requirements? 26 A. As a combined electric and natural gas utility, 27 capital will be required for investment in generation 28 1 Standard and Poor’s, Key Credit Factors: Business and Financial Risks in the Investor-owned Utilities Industry, March 2010. Thies, Di 20 Avista Corporation upgrades, expansion and replacement of transmission and 1 distribution facilities, customer growth as well as 2 necessary upgrades and replacements of our natural gas 3 systems. 4 We have been making significant capital investments 5 in generation, transmission and distribution systems to 6 preserve and enhance service reliability for our customers 7 and replace aging infrastructure. Utility capital 8 expenditures were $247.0 million for 2011. 9 The amount of capital expenditures planned for 2012-10 2013 is approximately $500 million, and over a five year 11 period ending December 31, 2016 approximately $1.2 12 billion. Total average monthly rate base as of June 30, 13 2012, was $2.2 billion; therefore, these planned capital 14 additions represent substantial new investments given the 15 relative size of the Company. 16 Q. What are the Company’s near-term plans related 17 to its debt? 18 A. The Company finances its rate base assets with 19 long term debt and equity. As such, from time to time, we 20 need to access long-term capital markets in order to 21 finance these long-term assets as well as fund maturing 22 debt. 23 Thies, Di 21 Avista Corporation In November 2012, the Company will issue $80.0 1 million of First Mortgage Bonds due in 2047. Additionally, 2 the Company is forecasting the issuance of $90 million of 3 First Mortgage bonds in June 2013. 4 The Company has $50.0 million of 1.68 percent First 5 Mortgage Bonds that mature in 2013. Illustration No. 4 6 below shows the amount of debt maturities by year 7 including the maturity date of the forecasted long-term 8 debt issuance: 9 Illustration No. 4: 10 11 12 Q. Is there pending legislation that may impact the 13 Company’s collateral requirements? 14 Thies, Di 22 Avista Corporation A. Yes. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and 1 Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) was enacted into 2 law in July 2010. The Dodd-Frank Act establishes 3 regulatory jurisdiction by the Commodity Futures Trading 4 Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange 5 Commission (SEC) for certain swaps (which include a 6 variety of derivative instruments) and the users of such 7 swaps, that previously had been largely exempted from 8 regulation. The Dodd-Frank Act includes mandatory 9 clearing requirements for swaps, with certain 10 expectations. Avista uses derivative instruments to hedge 11 risks related to electric and natural gas commodities, 12 interest rates and foreign currency. 13 A variety of rules must be adopted by federal 14 agencies (including the CFTC, SEC and the FERC) to 15 implement the Dodd-Frank Act. These rules being developed 16 and implemented will clarify the impact of the Dodd-Frank 17 Act on the Company, which may be significant. 18 Under the Dodd-Frank Act, “Swap Dealers” and “Major 19 Swap Participants” generally will be required to collect 20 minimum initial and variation margin (cash collateral) 21 from their counterparties for non-cleared swaps, similar 22 to the margin required for swaps that are cleared on 23 exchanges. However, the requirement varies with the type 24 Thies, Di 23 Avista Corporation of counterparty and the regulator of the “Major Swap 1 Participant” or “Swap Dealer.” The Company should be 2 categorized as a counterparty that is a non-financial end 3 user for the purposes of the Dodd-Frank Act, i.e., as a 4 non-financial entity that engages in derivatives to hedge 5 commercial risk. 6 On August 13, 2012, the CFTC and SEC issued final 7 rules regarding the definition of “swap” and various 8 exemptions from mandatory clearing. The final rules 9 indicate including how our use of derivatives to hedge 10 commercial risk could be exempt under the de minimis 11 threshold and/or the end-user criteria. These rules could 12 affect counterparties classified as Swap Dealers or Major 13 Swap Participants. Some of these parties have been active 14 in providing hedging instruments and may be forced out of 15 the market or elect to drop out because of the 16 restrictions on proprietary trading by financial 17 institutions. These final rules have effective dates 18 relevant to Avista starting in April 2013. 19 We will continue to monitor developments including 20 proposals to implementation of various aspects related to 21 the Act. We cannot predict the impact the Dodd-Frank Act 22 may ultimately have on our operations. 23 Thies, Di 24 Avista Corporation V. CAPITAL STRUCTURE 1 Q. What are Avista’s plans regarding common equity 2 and why is this important? 3 A. Avista continuously monitors the common equity 4 ratio of its capital structure, and assesses the need to 5 issue additional common equity in order to maintain a 6 capital structure that is appropriate for our business. 7 In 2011, we issued $26.5 million, and in 2010, we issued 8 $46.2 million of common stock. In 2012, we plan to issue 9 up to $45 million of common stock. It is important to the 10 rating agencies and investors for Avista to maintain a 11 balanced debt/equity ratio in order to minimize the risk 12 of default on required debt interest payments. Dr. Avera 13 notes that: 14 Utilities are facing energy market 15 volatility, rising cost structures, the need 16 to finance significant capital investment 17 plans, uncertainties over accommodating 18 economic and financial market uncertainties, 19 and ongoing regulatory risks. Taken 20 together, these considerations warrant a 21 stronger balance sheet to deal with an 22 increasingly uncertain environment. A more 23 conservative financial profile, in the form 24 of a higher common equity ratio, is 25 consistent with increasing uncertainties and 26 the need to maintain the continuous access 27 to capital under reasonable terms that is 28 required to fund operations and necessary 29 system investment, including times of 30 adverse capital market conditions. (Avera 31 Testimony, P. 27, ll. 12-22. P. 28, ll. 1-32 2). 33 Thies, Di 25 Avista Corporation 1 In his testimony Dr. Avera concludes that the 50.0 2 percent common equity ratio is reasonable based on the 3 following: 4 Avista’s requested capitalization is 5 consistent with the Company’s need to maintain 6 its credit standing and financial flexibility 7 as it seeks to raise additional capital to 8 fund significant system investments and meet 9 the requirements of its service territory; 10 Avista’s proposed common equity ratio is 11 entirely consistent with the 49.0 percent and 12 50.1 percent average common equity ratios for 13 the proxy utilities, based on year-end 2011 14 data and near-term expectations, respectively; 15 and, 16 The requested capitalization reflects the 17 importance of an adequate equity layer to 18 accommodate Avista’s operating risks and the 19 pressures of funding significant capital 20 investments. This is reinforced by the need 21 to consider the impact of uncertain capital 22 market conditions, as well as off-balance 23 sheet commitments such as purchased power 24 agreements, which carry with them some level 25 of imputed debt. (Avera Testimony, P. 7, ll. 26 28 through P. 8, ll. 2). 27 28 Q. Please explain the capital structure proposed by 29 Avista in this case. 30 A. The proportionate shares of Avista Corp.’s pro 31 forma capital structure are 50.0 percent common equity, 32 and 50.0 percent long-term debt as shown on page 2 of 33 Exhibit 2, Schedule 1. Additional details related to 34 Thies, Di 26 Avista Corporation adjustments are located in page 1 of confidential Exhibit 1 2, Schedule 2. 2 3 VI. COST OF DEBT 4 Q. How have you determined the cost of debt? 5 A. Cost of total long-term debt in the Company’s 6 proposed capital structure includes forecasted and actual 7 weighted average long-term debt. As shown in Exhibit 2, 8 Schedule 1 page 2, the actual weighted average cost of 9 long-term debt outstanding on June 30, 2012 was 5.94%. 10 The size and mix of debt changes over time based upon the 11 actual financing completed. We have made certain pro 12 forma adjustments to update the debt cost through December 13 31, 2013. Pro forma adjustments to total long-term debt 14 reflect the issuance of new debt for the pro forma period. 15 We are anticipating the cost of debt to rise to 6.02% 16 as of December 31, 2013, from 5.94% as of June 30, 2012. 17 This increase is primarily due to the forecasted 2013, 18 thirty-year issuance of $90 million secured bonds, of 19 which a portion of the proceeds will be used to refinance 20 the three-year, 1.68%, $50 million first mortgage bonds 21 maturing in 2013 (originally issued in 2010). 22 Thies, Di 27 Avista Corporation VII. COST OF COMMON EQUITY 1 Q. What rate of return on common equity is the 2 Company proposing in this proceeding? 3 A. The Company is proposing a 10.90% return on 4 common equity (ROE), which falls essentially at the 5 midpoint of Dr. Avera’s recommended range of required 6 return on equity. Dr. Avera testifies to analyses related 7 to the cost of common equity with an ROE range of 10.0% to 8 11.4% and 10.2% to 11.4% (after incorporating an 9 adjustment to account for the impact of common equity 10 flotation costs). In his testimony Dr. Avera states that: 11 My conclusion that a 10.9 percent ROE for 12 Avista is a reasonable estimate of 13 investors’ required return is also 14 reinforced by the greater uncertainties 15 associated with Avista’s relatively small 16 size and the fact that current cost of 17 capital estimates are likely to understate 18 investors’ requirements at the time the 19 outcome of this proceeding becomes effective 20 and beyond. (Avera Testimony, at P.6, ll. 21 20-28) 22 23 If Avista can earn a 10.9% ROE, it would further 24 strengthen the Company’s credit ratings ratios. Stronger 25 credit ratings ratios could lead to the Company’s goal of 26 obtaining an upgrade to our corporate credit rating to 27 BBB+ from BBB. 28 Q. Please summarize the proposed capital structure 29 and the cost components for debt and common equity. 30 Thies, Di 28 Avista Corporation A. Illustration No. 5 below shows the capital 1 structure and cost components proposed by the Company. 2 Illustration No. 5: 3 4 Q. Does that conclude your pre-filed direct 5 testimony? 6 A. Yes. 7 Percent of Amount Total Capital Cost Component Total Debt 1,333,000,000$ 50.00%6.02%3.01% Total Equity 1,305,826,000 50.00%10.90%5.45% Total 2,638,826,000$ 100.00%8.46% AVISTA CORPORATION Forecasted Cost of Capital December 31, 2013 DAVID J. MEYER VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR REGULATORY & GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS AVISTA CORPORATION P.O. BOX 3727 1411 EAST MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220-3727 TELEPHONE: (509) 495-4316 FACSIMILE: (509) 495-8851 DAVID.MEYER@AVISTACORP.COM BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION ) CASE NO. AVU-E-12-08 OF AVISTA CORPORATION FOR THE ) CASE NO. AVU-G-12-07 AUTHORITY TO INCREASE ITS RATES ) AND CHARGES FOR ELECTRIC AND ) NATURAL GAS SERVICE TO ELECTRIC ) Exhibit No. 2 AND NATURAL GAS CUSTOMERS IN THE ) STATE OF IDAHO ) MARK T. THIES ) FOR AVISTA CORPORATION (ELECTRIC AND NATURAL GAS) Standard & Poor's Moody's Last Upgraded Credit Outlook A+A1 A A2 A-First Mortgage Bonds A3 First Mortgage Bonds Secured Medium-Term Notes Secured Medium-Term Notes BBB+Baa1 BBB Avista Corp./Corporate rating Baa2 Avista Corp./Issuer rating BBB-Baa3 INVESTMENT GRADE BB+Trust-Originated Preferred Securities Ba1 Trust-Originated Preferred Securities BB Ba2 BB-Ba3 (1)The Company received an upgrade to its Corporate credit rating in March 2011 and to its First Mortgage Bonds in August 2011 AVISTA CORPORATION Long-term Securities Credit Ratings March/August 2011(1)March 2011 Stable Stable Exhibit No. 2 Case Nos. AVU-E-12-08 AVU-G-12-07 M. Thies, Avista Schedule 1, p. 1 of 5 Percent of Amount Total Capital Cost Component Total Debt 1,333,000,000$ 50.00%B 6.02%3.01% Total Equity 1,305,826,000 50.00%B 10.90%5.45% Total 2,638,826,000$ 100.00%8.46% Percent of Amount Total Capital Cost Component Total Debt 1,213,000,000$ 50.77%5.94%3.01% Total Equity 1,176,206,894 49.23%10.50%C 5.17% TOTAL 2,389,206,894$ 100.00%8.18% Assumptions: A B C Embedded Cost of Capital AVISTA CORPORATION Forecasted Cost of Capital A December 31, 2013 AVISTA CORPORATION June 30, 2012 The Company's cost of capital was forecasted through 12-31-2013, based on the Company's internal forecast. The Company's actual percentage of debt and equity is 50.5% and 49.5%, respectively. Consistent with prior regulatory filings the Company is filing a capital structure of 50% equity and 50% total debt. The cost of equity used for the embedded cost of capital is based on the last known allowed return on equity approved by the Commission. Exhibit No. 2 Case Nos. AVU-E-12-08 AVU-G-12-07 M. Thies, Avista Schedule 1, p. 2 of 5 Line Coupon Maturity Settlement Principal Issuance SWAP Discount Loss/Reacq Net Yield to Outstanding Effective Line No.Description Rate Date Date Amount Costs Loss/(Gain)(Premium)Expenses Proceeds Maturity 12/31/2013 Cost No. (a)(b)( c)(d)(e)(f)(g)(g)(h)(i)(j)(k)(l) 1 FMBS - SERIES A 7.530%5/5/2023 5/6/1993 5,500,000$ 42,712$ -$ -$ 963,011$ 4,494,277$ 9.359%5,500,000$ 514,744$ 1 2 FMBS - SERIES A 7.540%5/5/2023 5/7/1993 1,000,000$ 7,766$ -$ -$ 175,412$ 816,822$ 9.375%1,000,000 93,747 2 3 FMBS - SERIES A 7.390%5/11/2018 5/11/1993 7,000,000$ 54,364$ -$ -$ 1,227,883$ 5,717,753$ 9.287%7,000,000 650,114 3 4 FMBS - SERIES A 7.450%6/11/2018 6/9/1993 15,500,000$ 120,377$ -$ 50,220$ 2,140,440$ 13,188,963$ 8.953%15,500,000 1,387,715 4 5 FMBS - SERIES A 7.180%8/11/2023 8/12/1993 7,000,000$ 54,364$ -$ -$ -$ 6,945,636$ 7.244%7,000,000 507,064 5 6 Trust Preferred Securities 1.580%1 6/1/2037 6/3/1997 40,000,000$ 1,296,086$ -$ -$ (1,769,125)$ 40,473,039$ 1.540%40,000,000 616,011 6 7 FMBS - SERIES B 6.370%6/19/2028 6/19/1998 25,000,000$ 158,304$ -$ -$ 188,649$ 24,653,047$ 6.475%25,000,000 1,618,863 7 8 FMBS SERIES 5.45% 5.450%12/1/2019 11/18/2004 90,000,000$ 1,192,681$ -$ 239,400$ -$ 88,567,919$ 5.608%90,000,000 5,047,001 8 9 FMBS SERIES - 6.25% 6.250%12/1/2035 11/17/2005 150,000,000$ 1,812,935$ (4,445,000)$ 367,500$ -$ 152,264,565$ 6.139%150,000,000 9,208,605 9 10 FMBS SERIES - 5.70% 5.700%7/1/2037 12/15/2006 150,000,000$ 4,702,304$ 3,738,000$ 222,000$ -$ 141,337,696$ 6.120%150,000,000 9,179,674 10 11 FMBS SERIES - 5.95%5.950%6/1/2018 4/2/2008 250,000,000$ 2,246,419$ 16,395,000$ 835,000$ -$ 230,523,581$ 7.034%250,000,000 17,585,352 11 12 FMBS SERIES - 5.125%5.125%4/1/2022 9/22/2009 250,000,000$ 2,284,788$ (10,776,222)$ 575,000$ 2,875,817$ 255,040,618$ 4.907%250,000,000 12,268,615 12 13 FMBS SERIES - 3.89%3.890%12/20/2020 12/20/2010 52,000,000$ 383,338$ -$ -$ 6,273,664$ 45,342,997$ 5.578%52,000,000 2,900,325 13 14 FMBS SERIES - 5.55%5.550%12/20/2040 12/20/2010 35,000,000$ 258,834$ -$ -$ 5,263,822$ 29,477,345$ 6.788%35,000,000 2,375,887 14 15 FMBS SERIES - 4.45%4.450%12/14/2041 12/14/2011 85,000,000$ 692,722$ 10,557,000$ -$ -$ 73,750,278$ 5.340%85,000,000 4,538,863 15 16 FMBS SERIES - 4.23%4.230%11/29/2047 11/30/2012 80,000,000$ 600,000$ 2 18,546,870$ -$ 104,292$ 60,748,838$ 5.854%80,000,000 4,683,510 16 17 Forecasted FMBS Issuance 5.500%6/15/2043 6/15/2013 90,000,000$ 675,000$ 2 -$ -$ -$ 89,325,000$ 5.552%90,000,000 4,996,461 17 18 1,333,000,000 78,172,554 18 19 19 20 Repurchase 3 7.74%12/31/2017 6/30/2006 6,875,000$ 483,582$ 6,391,418$ 8.721%4 70,127 20 21 Repurchase 3 8.17%6/30/2015 6/30/2005 26,000,000$ 1,700,371$ 24,299,629$ 9.184%4 267,096 21 22 Repurchase 3 8.41%6/30/2014 6/30/2004 36,590,000$ 7,244,895$ 29,345,105$ 11.840%4 1,273,854 22 23 Repurchase 3 5.72%3/1/2034 12/30/2009 17,000,000$ 1,957,496$ 15,042,504$ 6.683%4 163,206 23 24 Repurchase 3 6.55%10/1/2032 12/31/2008 66,700,000$ 3,709,755$ 62,990,245$ 7.034%4 324,413 24 25 IDAHO TOTAL DEBT OUTSTANDING AND COST OF DEBT AT December 31, 2013 1,333,000,000$ 80,271,250$ 25 26 26 27 Adjusted Weighted Average Cost of Debt 6.02%27 28 28 29 29 30 1 Average monthly average rate over a twelve month period 30 31 2 Estimated issuance costs 31 32 3 Coupon Rate at the time of repurchase 32 33 4 Calculated using the internal rate of return method 33 34 34 AVISTA CORPORATION Forecasted Cost of Long-Term Debt Detail - Idaho December 31, 2013 Exhibit No. 2 Case Nos. AVU-E-12-08 AVU-G-12-07 M. Thies, Avista Schedule 1, p. 3 of 5 1 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Avg of 2 (a)(b)( c)(d)(e)(f)(g)(h)(i)(j)(k)(l)(m)(n)(o) 3 Long-Term Debt Variable Rate $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 40,000,000$ 4 5 Number of Days in Month 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 6 Forecasted Rates*1.53%1.53%1.53%1.55%1.55%1.55%1.56%1.56%1.56%1.60%1.60%1.60%1.58% 7 Long-Term Debt Variable Rate - Interest Expense 52,576$ 47,488$ 52,576$ 51,506$ 53,223$ 51,506$ 53,733$ 53,733$ 52,000$ 55,111$ 53,333$ 55,111$ 631,897$ 8 9 10 11 *Forecasted Rates are based on the Compnay's internal forecast 12 13 AVISTA CORPORATION Cost of Long-Term Variable Rate December 31, 2013 Exhibit No. 2 Case Nos. AVU-E-12-08 AVU-G-12-07 M. Thies, Avista Schedule 1, p. 4 of 5 10-Q 06/30/2012 Adjustments Regulatory Balance 6/30/2012 Forecasted activity Regulatory Balance 12/31/2013 Long-term debt 1,147,765$ 25,235$ A 1,173,000$ 120,000$ E 1,293,000$ Current Portion of long-term debt 423 (423) B - - - Debt to Affiliated Trust 51,547 (11,547) C 40,000 - 40,000 Total long-term debt 1,199,735$ 13,265$ 1,213,000$ 120,000$ 1,333,000$ Total Avista Corporation stockholders' equity 1,216,842$ (40,635)$ D 1,176,207$ 129,619$ F 1,305,826$ A B C D 2012 Equity Adjustments (dollars in thousands): Capital Stock Expense 14,278$ Accumulated other comprehensive loss 5,158 Debt outstanding at Ecova (60,071) (40,635)$ E F The following is forecasted equity activity from June, 30 2012, through December 31, 2013 included in our internal forecast (dollars in thousands): Capital Stock Expense XXX Confidential Change in debt outstanding at Ecova XXX Confidential Dividends XXX Confidential Net Income XXX Confidential Net Common Stock Issuance XXX Confidential Adjustment to retained earnings due to forecasted subsidary activity XXX Confidential -$ Current portion of long-term debt excludes $423,000, which primarily relates to capital leases and debt at the subsidiaries. This adjustment reflects the $11.547 million of these securities the Company currently holds. The $40 million adjusted balance reflects the current outstanding balance to third party investors. The Company excludes the following from equity: Capital Stock Expense - in order to recover the costs incurred for issuing equity, an amount equivalent to the actual debt outstanding at the Company's subsidiary Ecova, and accumulated other comprehensive loss - in order to reflect the Company's equity balance. This represents the issuance of $80 million of long-term debt in 2013, $90 million of long-term debt in 2014, less $50 million of long- term debt maturing in December 2013. AVISTA CORPORATION Capital Structure Reconciliation (dollars in thousands) Long-term Debt Equity These adjustments are made to reflect the Company's actual principal amount outstanding. The Company excludes amounts related to settled interest rate swaps and unamortized debt discount. These items are included as a cost of debt. Additionally, amounts related to capital leases are excluded from long-term debt. Exhibit No. 2 Case Nos. AVU-E-12-08 AVU-G-12-07 M. Thies, Avista Schedule 1, p. 5 of 5 Exhibit No. 2 Case Nos. AVU-E-12-08 & AVU-G-12-07 M. Thies, Avista Schedule 2, p. 1 of 1 CONFIDENTIAL subject to Attorney’s Certificate of Confidentiality Capital Structure Reconciliation Pages 1 of 1