HomeMy WebLinkAbout200712282007 IRP Appendices.pdfAVISTA CORPORATION
2007 NATURAL GAS
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page Number
Appendix 1.1: TAC Member List…………………………………………. 3
Appendix 2.1: Demand Forecast Detail…………………………………. 5
Appendix 2.2: Customer Forecast……………………………………..... 15
Appendix 2.3: Demand Coefficients…………………………………….. 29
Appendix 2.4: Detailed Demand Data…………………………………… 33
Appendix 6.1: General Assumptions……………………………………. 59
Appendix 6.2: Existing Resource Comparisons………………………. 73
Appendix 6.3: Served and Unserved Demand………………………… 77
Appendix 6.4: Supply-Side Resources…………………………………. 81
Appendix 6.5: Future Resource Comparisons………………………… 85
Appendix 6.6: Load Duration Curves…………………………………… 89
Appendix 6.7: Resource Selections……………………………………… 93
Appendix 6.8: Demand-Side Management Savings…………………… 97
Appendix 6.9: Demand-Side Management Selected Measures…….. 101
Appendix 6.10: Demand-Side Management Programs –OR ONLY… 107
Appendix 6.11: Oregon Public Utility Commission IRP Standards
and Guidelines…………………………………………… 109
Appendix 7.1: Avoided Cost Determination……………………………. 119
TAC Member List
Appendix 1.1
3
Name Organization
Bob Jenks Oregon CUB
Bonnie Tatom OPUC
Bruce Folsom Avista
Bryan Lanspery IPUC
Dan Kirschner Northwest Gas Association
Dave Allred Northwest Pipeline
Dave Sloan Gas Transmission Northwest
Doug Kilpatrick WUTC
Elizabeth Klumpp WCTED
Greg Rahn Avista
Inara Scott Northwest Natural
Jon Powell Avista
Kathy Bernarnd Cascade Natural Gas Company
Kelly Irvine Avista
Kerry Shroy Avista
Ken Boni Avista
Ken Zimmerman OPUC
Kevin Christie Avista
Linda Gervais Avista
Lynn Anderson IPUC
Lynn Kittilson OPUC
Nicolas Garcia WUTC
Paula Pyron Northwest Industrial Gas Users
Phillip Popoff Puget Sound Energy
Randy Barcus Avista
Scott Russell Gas Transmission Northwest
Steven Johnson Washington Attorney General’s Office
Terrence Browne Avista
Terri Carlock IPUC
Terry Morlan Northwest Power and Conservation Coucil
Yohannes Mariam WUTC
2007 IRP TAC Member List
4
Natural Gas Demand Forecast Detail
Appendix 2.1
5
Appendix 2.1 - Natural Gas Demand Forecast Detail
Overview
Avista presented their 2005 Natural Gas Forecast to the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC). What
follows in narrative is the process of preparing the company base customer growth forecast. The first step
is a framework-forecast of the national economy, followed by regional economic forecasts consistent with
the national outlook. The employment and population forecasts are the key drivers for the natural gas
customer forecast.
National Economic Outlook
Avista has contracted for national economic forecasts with Global Insight, Inc. for several years. The most
recent twenty-five year long term forecast was used as the basis for the 2007 effort. The following
narrative has Avista remarks and Global Insight forecasts (used with permission) which are consistent
with the presentation at the TAC in May 2007, with a focus on the near term national outlook.
The U.S. Gross Domestic Product is expected to rebound to levels in the 2.5 to 3.0 percent range after a
slowdown in 2007. Longer term the rate settles in at 2.5 percent.
Regional Economic Outlook
Avista serves natural gas in eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and in portions of five counties in
Oregon. The principal county in Washington is Spokane, while in Idaho there are two counties; Kootenai
and Bonner are barometers of service area growth. Kootenai County includes Coeur d’Alene, Post Falls,
Hayden and a host of smaller municipalities and Bonner County is anchored by Sandpoint. The primary
cities in Spokane County are the City of Spokane, City of Spokane Valley and Liberty Lake. In Oregon,
the counties (principal city) of Jackson (Medford), Josephine (Grants Pass), Douglas (Roseburg), Klamath
(Klamath Falls) and Union (La Grande) round out the service territory. The map below shows the breadth
of the service area.
Global Insight, Inc. has also been providing county-level forecasts to Avista for several years. These
forecasts are consistent with and driven by their national forecast.
The economic concepts provided are forecast forward for 30 years. Below we report forecast data ending
in the year 2028, the twenty-year horizon.
6
Overall, the results of the economic forecasts suggest the following impacts on Avista’s customer growth:
Near term the strength in the construction boom will be mirrored with strong customer growth, while
longer term, underlying employment and population growth will drive customer growth.
The following table indicates a listing of 21 counties served by Avista Natural Gas. We purchased
economic forecasts for the 15 principal counties.
Table of Counties Served (All or Portions)
Washington Idaho Oregon
Adams* Benewah Douglas
Asotin Bonner Jackson
Franklin* Boundary Josephine
Grant* Latah Klamath
Klickitat* Nez Perce Union
Lincoln* Shosone
Skamania*
Spokane
Stevens
Whitman
*Did not purchase economic data, few customers served
The charts that follow are the actual employment, population, population age 65 and over, number of
households and personal income forecasts used to produce the natural gas forecasts by state, by
customer class (residential, commercial and industrial) and by rate schedule (firm – small, medium and
large-sized customers).
Although the forecasts are prepared in detail by county, the charts aggregate the data by State.
The first chart is Non-Farm Employment. During the last decade, fairly consistent growth in jobs was
observed except during the job recession and economy restructuring in the 2001-2002 period. The
resumption of job growth in 2003 has accelerated through early 2007, and although expected to moderate
it’s rate of growth, is expected to grow modestly through the forecast period.
The ten year average compounded growth rate in jobs for these 15 counties was 1.9 percent from 1997-
2007, and is forecast to be 1.6 percent for the period 2008-2028.
7
Service Area Non-Farm Employment
Fifteen Principal Counties Served
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Washington Counties Oregon Counties Idaho Counties
Historical Data Forecast Data
Next is Oregon resident population. Resident population growth was 1.1 percent compounded from 1997-
2007, and is expected to rise to 1.2 percent from 2008-2028. Migration into these counties of retirement-
age persons is the primary influence on growth.
Service Area Population
Fifteen Principal Counties Served
0
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400
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800
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Washington Counties Oregon Counties Idaho Counties
Historical Data Forecast Data
The next chart is persons 65 years and over. Between 1997 and 2007, the compounded growth rate was
1.7 percent. From 2008 to 2028, it accelerates to 2.7 percent. The 2007 estimate of the percentage of
persons 65 and over in Avista’s service area is 15 percent. By 2028 this estimate grows to 20 percent.
8
Service Area 65 and Over Population
Fifteen Principal Counties Served
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
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Washington Counties Oregon Counties Idaho Counties
Historical Data Forecast Data
The next economic variable used in the preparation of Avista’s forecast is number of resident households
in the service area. The household growth rate was 1.4 percent from 1997-2007, and is forecast at 1.3
percent for the 2008 to 2028 period.
Service Area Households
Fifteen Principal Counties Served
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
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Washington Counties Oregon Counties Idaho Counties
Historical Data Forecast Data
The final economic variable used is the estimate of personal income. Besides wage and salary income,
personal income includes rental income, transfer payments (like social security from all of the age 65 and
over population, plus dividends and interest payments. Between 1997 and 2007, personal income grew at
a compounded average rate of 5.2 percent. The forecast period has this growth rate increasing modestly
to 5.8 percent, consistent with the proportion of persons 65 years and older and the expectation these
individuals will be receiving supplemental payments from retirement sources.
9
Service Area Personal Income
Fifteen Principal Counties Served
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
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Washington Counties Oregon Counties Idaho Counties
Historical Data Forecast Data
Price Elasticity
Avista participated in a National study of price elasticity conducted for the American Gas Association by a
consulting group. As a benefit of our participation, the consultants provided separate price elasticity
estimates for each of the three states. The study was discussed at the May 2, 2007 Technical Advisory
Committee meeting in Portland, Oregon.
Price Elasticity
American Gas Association, March 2007 Study
Frederick Joutz and Robert P. Trost
Avista Specific Estimates
Long Run Short Run
Washington -0.14 -0.12
Oregon -0.13 -0.08
Idaho -0.10 -0.05
Heating Degree Days
Heating degree day data is obtained from the National Weather Service. Avista uses the most recent 30-
year period, which goes from 1971-2000. For Oregon, Avista uses four weather stations as the weather
basis, corresponding to the areas within which natural gas services are provided, all of which are official
National Weather Service stations. Heating degree day weather patterns between these areas are
uncorrelated.
At the May 2, 2007 Technical Advisory Committee meeting, Avista presented some data and information
regarding trends in heating degree days for its service area. Although not adopting a “Global Warming”
baseline for forecasting, our willingness to discuss the subject was well received. It was decided that for
10
this IRP no action on adjusting forecasts for the warmer trends observed in recent years is necessary.
However, as this issue continues to garner discussion further analysis will be warranted.
Base Case Forecasts of Customers Served
Base case customer forecasts for residential customers are consistent with our economic forecasts. The
relationship has been changing over the last decade, and the forecasts take into account the most recent
trends. As shown on the next figure, the number of residential customers per household grew rapidly
between 1997 and 2001. About half of this growth was due to fuel switching of existing homes from other
heating sources to natural gas.
After 2001, the number of customers switching to natural gas decreased, as the number of homes
available to switch declined combined with dramatically higher natural gas retail prices to reduce the
market demand.
To produce the customer forecast, we look at recent trends in housing construction and the likelihood
those homes will be served with natural gas. For example, in Washington, the number of single family
homes being constructed has declined, with apartment dwellings taking a larger market share. Multi-
family housing has traditionally been served with electricity only, limiting the number of available dwellings
for natural gas service.
However, in the areas outside of the urban core of Spokane, including the rest of Washington, much of
Idaho and Oregon, housing construction activity has maintained very high levels of single family homes,
whether detached-style homes on individual lots or attached-style homes, like duplexes, townhomes, or
condominiums. This market is traditionally served with natural gas water and space heat, and many of
these homes now are being built with natural gas clothes dryers, gas ranges and ovens and natural gas
fire places.
Because growth management laws are in place in all of Avista’s natural gas service areas, we assume
these construction trends in the urban growth areas will be served with natural gas, and do not anticipate
any switching to electricity. We have an effort under way to encourage multi-family builders, who typically
are building apartments for rental purposes to include natural gas appliances, but this forecast does not
assume this effort will lead to a change in construction practices. We will continue to monitor activity in the
multi-family housing segment.
The forecast assumes that the trends of the last five years continue into the future, adjusted for the sharp
building cycle presently under way and based on the household forecasts provided by Global Insight. The
chart shows the number of residential customers per household. The reason this ratio is increasing in the
forecast period is because the ratio of homes being added is higher than the current ratio. This is largely
driven by the assumption of nearly 100 percent of new homes having at least one natural gas service.
Also, outside of the Medford and Spokane metropolitan areas, the multi-family construction market is very
small. The only exception would be in Pullman and Moscow where growth in university enrollments is
leading to apartment construction activity in those special areas. To a lesser extent, La Grande, Klamath
Falls, and Ashland are seeing student growth-driven apartment construction, but to a small extent.
11
Residential Customers per Household Trends by State
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
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Washington Oregon Idaho
History Forecast
The residential customer forecast is the product of the customers-per-household forecast and the
household forecast from Global Insight.
Residential Customers Served
Average During the Year--All Residential Customers are Core Load
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
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500,000
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Washington Oregon Idaho
Historical Data Forecast Data
Note: 2007 data includes 4 months actual, 8 months estimated
Core commercial customers served are based on job forecasts for each county, as well as the number of
residential customers. The figure below shows ratio of non-farm workers per commercial customer. The
previous ten years show declines in numbers of workers early in the period, followed by a buildup until
recently. This build up is due to an increase in the number of big-box retail stores, which have moved
from the very large metro areas into the smaller metro areas served by Avista. We believe that build out is
largely complete. We do not anticipate new large mall-type complexes will be built in to any great extent.
Therefore, in a few more years we expect the number of workers will again begin to decline as smaller
shops and strip-mall developments fill into the neighborhood developments. We have taken into account
12
the known shopping areas that have been either permitted or have those proposed that have a high
probability of being built in the near term forecast. As shown in the chart, although declines are forecast,
they are very modest levels and reflect the particular characteristics of the existing mix of commercial
developments in each state.
Non-Farm Employment per Commercial Customer Trends by State
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Washington Oregon Idaho
History Forecast
The commercial customer forecast is based on job forecasts multiplied times the forecasted ratio of
workers per customer as described above.
Core Commercial Customers Served
Average During the Year
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
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Historical Data Forecast Data
Note: 2007 data includes 4 months actual, 8 months estimated
Core industrial customers served are based on manufacturing job forecasts for each county. The number
of manufacturing workers is expected to be growing slowly over the forecast period, leading to little
change in the number of core firm industrial customers.
13
Core Industrial Customers Served
Average During the Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
19
9
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Washington Oregon Idaho
Historical Data Forecast Data
Note: 2007 data includes 4 months actual, 8 months estimated
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Customer Forecast
Appendix 2.2
15
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16
Ap
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2
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Ex
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23
Ap
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25
Ap
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2
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28
Demand Coefficients
Appendix 2.3
29
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Residential WA & ID (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0301 1.6196 0.0488
1 (Constant) 0.0301 0.0023 12.9224 2.68657E-30 Shoulder 0.0094 0.6304 0.0059
NHDDD 0.0094 0.0001 63.6034 7.2305E-169 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0112 0.9259 0.0104
NQDDD 0.0019 0.0001 14.9808 1.07403E-37 Nov & Mar 0.0094 0.9702 0.0091
a Dependent Variable: RNDT
Regression--Commercial WA & ID
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Commercial WA & ID (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.2134 1.6196 0.3456
1 (Constant) 0.2134 0.0113 18.8746 6.91553E-52 Shoulder 0.0472 0.6304 0.0297
NHDDD 0.0472 0.0007 65.9534 5.1129E-173 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0587 0.9259 0.0543
NQDDD 0.0115 0.0006 19.0984 1.06953E-52 Nov & Mar 0.0472 0.9702 0.0458
a Dependent Variable: CNDT
Regression--Firm Industrial WA & ID
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Firm Industrial WA & ID (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 4.3748 1.6196 7.0854
1 (Constant) 4.3748 0.080897048 54.07863783 1.4517E-150 Shoulder 0.1164 0.6304 0.0734
NHDDD 0.1164 0.005117407 22.75515098 1.0506E-65 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.1617 0.9259 0.1497
NQDDD 0.0452 0.004309456 10.4915236 6.02302E-22 Nov & Mar 0.1164 0.9702 0.1130
a Dependent Variable: INDT
Regression--Residential Medford
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Residential Medford (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0376 1.1754 0.0442
1 (Constant) 0.0376 0.0015 25.6122 1.85684E-75 Shoulder 0.0095 0.7691 0.0073
MHDDD 0.0095 0.0001 67.2378 3.1236E-175 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0112 1.0440 0.0117
MQDDD 0.0017 0.0001 13.5006 2.35291E-32 Nov & Mar 0.0095 1.0680 0.0101
a Dependent Variable: RMDT
Regression--Commercial Medford
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Commercial Medford (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.2903 1.1754 0.3412
1 (Constant) 0.2903 0.0155 18.7306 2.30114E-51 Shoulder 0.0452 0.7691 0.0348
MHDDD 0.0452 0.0015 30.4767 4.51413E-91 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0455 1.0440 0.0475
MQDDD 0.0002 0.0013 0.1656 0.868594306 Nov & Mar 0.0452 1.0680 0.0483
a Dependent Variable: CMDT
Regression--Firm Industrial Medford
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Firm Industrial Medford (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0294 1.1754 0.0346
1 (Constant) 0.029406813 0.028566584 1.029412998 0.304170887 Shoulder 0.0758 0.7691 0.0583
MHDDD 0.075782114 0.002736531 27.69276501 2.71243E-82 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0773 1.0440 0.0807
MQDDD 0.001501534 0.002462884 0.609664908 0.54257646 Nov & Mar 0.0758 1.0680 0.0809
a Dependent Variable: CMDT
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Regression--Residential WA & ID
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
30
Regression--Residential Roseburg
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Residential Roseburg (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0359 1.2964 0.0465
1 (Constant) 0.0359 0.0012 28.9895 1.958E-86 Shoulder 0.0106 0.7245 0.0077
RHDDD 0.0106 0.0001 79.6055 8.2663E-195 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0119 0.9789 0.0117
RQDDD 0.0013 0.0001 10.7946 5.92577E-23 Nov & Mar 0.0106 0.9349 0.0099
a Dependent Variable: RRDT
Regression--Commercial Roseburg
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Commercial Roseburg (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.2805 1.2964 0.3637
1 (Constant) 0.2805 0.0163 17.2281 6.81002E-46 Shoulder 0.0534 0.7245 0.0387
RHDDD 0.0534 0.0018 30.3715 9.5193E-91 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0523 0.9789 0.0512
RQDDD -0.0011 0.0016 -0.6839 0.494595161 Nov & Mar 0.0534 0.9349 0.0499
a Dependent Variable: CRDT
Regression--Firm Industrial Roseburg
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Firm Industrial Roseburg (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 11.9581 1.2964 15.5025
1 (Constant) 11.9581 0.1814 65.9241 5.7476E-173 Shoulder 0.6041 0.7245 0.4377
RHDDD 0.6041 0.0196 30.8542 3.13865E-92 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.4340 0.9789 0.4249
RQDDD -0.1701 0.0177 -9.6239 3.91227E-19 Nov & Mar 0.6041 0.9349 0.5648
a Dependent Variable: IRDT
Regression--Residential Klamath Falls
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Residential Klamath Falls (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0137 2.3155 0.0318
1 (Constant) 0.0137 0.0031 4.4168 1.43108E-05 Shoulder 0.0079 0.5186 0.0041
KHDDD 0.0079 0.0002 41.3221 2.0409E-121 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0099 0.8426 0.0084
KQDDD 0.0020 0.0002 13.1000 6.29945E-31 Nov & Mar 0.0079 0.8476 0.0067
a Dependent Variable: RKDT
Regression--Commercial Klamath Falls
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Commercial Klamath Falls (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.1506 2.3155 0.3488
1 (Constant) 0.1506 0.0266 5.6723 3.49963E-08 Shoulder 0.0419 0.5186 0.0217
KHDDD 0.0419 0.0016 25.6776 1.12342E-75 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0442 0.8426 0.0372
KQDDD 0.0023 0.0013 1.7302 0.08469882 Nov & Mar 0.0419 0.8476 0.0355
a Dependent Variable: CKDT
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Firm Industrial Klamath Falls (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0385 2.3155 0.0892
1 (Constant) 0.038518325 0.03941458 0.977260814 0.329280619 Shoulder 0.0550 0.5186 0.0285
KHDDD 0.054989665 0.002420898 22.71457399 1.45482E-65 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0650 0.8426 0.0548
KQDDD 0.010036591 0.00197617 5.078808335 6.92943E-07 Nov & Mar 0.0550 0.8476 0.0466
a Dependent Variable: CKDT
Unstandardized Coefficients
Regression--Firm Industrial Klamath Falls
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
31
Regression--Residential La Grande
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Residential La Grande (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.0145 2.0591 0.0299
1 (Constant) 0.0145 0.0047 3.0840 0.002245712 Shoulder 0.0091 0.6308 0.0057
LHDDD 0.0091 0.0003 29.1164 7.7838E-87 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0109 1.1194 0.0122
LQDDD 0.0018 0.0003 6.9195 3.06602E-11 Nov & Mar 0.0091 1.1161 0.0102
a Dependent Variable: RLDT
Regression--Commercial La Grande
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Commercial La Grande (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 0.1274 2.0591 0.2623
1 (Constant) 0.1274 0.0226 5.6466 4.00306E-08 Shoulder 0.0407 0.6308 0.0257
LHDDD 0.0407 0.0015 27.1824 1.22582E-80 Dec-Jan-Feb 0.0454 1.1194 0.0508
LQDDD 0.0046 0.0013 3.6881 0.000271162 Nov & Mar 0.0407 1.1161 0.0455
a Dependent Variable: CLDT
Regression--Firm Industrial La Grande
Calibration
Coefficients Correction
Model t Sig.Regression--Firm Industrial La Grande (%) Final
B Std. Error Base 27.2292 2.0591 56.0676
1 (Constant) 27.2292 1.6612 16.3912 7.75936E-43 Shoulder (1.1588) 0.6308 -
LHDDD -1.1588 0.1104 -10.4999 5.65102E-22 Dec-Jan-Feb (0.7909) 1.1194 -
LQDDD 0.3679 0.0923 3.9869 8.54086E-05 Nov & Mar (1.1588) 1.1161 -
a Dependent Variable: ILDT
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
32
Detailed Demand Data
Appendix 2.4
33
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55
Appendix 2.4 D
Peak Day Demand - 11/2007 - 10/2027 (Net of DSM Savings)
Peak Day = February 15
Gas Year Klam Falls La Grande
Medford
GTN
Medford
NWP Rosburg Oregon
Spokane
Both
Spokane
GTN
Spokane
NWP WA/ID Total
Base
2007-2008 10.76 9.72 26.84 12.06 12.87 72.25 152.66 21.06 89.50 263.22 335.46
2008-2009 10.97 9.82 27.42 12.32 13.19 73.71 156.11 21.54 91.53 269.18 342.89
2009-2010 11.21 9.91 28.07 12.61 13.55 75.35 159.79 22.05 93.70 275.54 350.89
2010-2011 11.48 10.01 28.71 12.90 13.94 77.04 163.58 22.57 95.94 282.09 359.14
2011-2012 11.72 10.11 29.44 13.23 14.41 78.92 167.30 23.09 98.13 288.51 367.43
2012-2013 11.95 10.23 30.13 13.54 14.85 80.69 170.87 23.58 100.23 294.69 375.38
2013-2014 12.18 10.33 30.80 13.84 15.28 82.44 174.37 24.07 102.29 300.72 383.16
2014-2015 12.43 10.46 31.51 14.16 15.76 84.31 177.81 24.55 104.32 306.68 390.99
2015-2016 12.68 10.60 32.24 14.49 16.26 86.27 181.31 25.03 106.38 312.72 398.99
2016-2017 12.94 10.72 32.98 14.82 16.76 88.22 184.82 25.52 108.45 318.79 407.01
2017-2018 13.19 10.84 33.69 15.14 17.23 90.08 188.54 26.03 110.63 325.20 415.28
2018-2019 13.42 10.95 34.39 15.45 17.70 91.91 192.32 26.55 112.85 331.72 423.63
2019-2020 13.67 11.07 35.10 15.77 18.18 93.79 196.27 27.10 115.16 338.52 432.31
2020-2021 13.90 11.17 35.77 16.08 18.63 95.55 200.33 27.66 117.55 345.54 441.09
2021-2022 14.14 11.27 36.44 16.37 19.10 97.33 204.48 28.23 119.98 352.69 450.01
2022-2023 14.38 11.36 37.10 16.67 19.56 99.07 208.73 28.82 122.47 360.01 459.08
2023-2024 14.61 11.46 37.75 16.96 20.03 100.81 212.96 29.40 124.95 367.30 468.11
2024-2025 14.86 11.55 38.39 17.25 20.51 102.56 217.22 29.99 127.44 374.65 477.21
2025-2026 15.11 11.62 39.04 17.54 20.99 104.30 221.42 30.57 129.91 381.90 486.20
2026-2027 15.35 11.72 39.66 17.82 21.47 106.02 225.59 31.14 132.35 389.09 495.11
High
2007-2008 10.84 9.86 27.06 12.16 13.07 72.99 155.95 21.51 91.43 268.89 341.87
2008-2009 10.99 9.84 27.48 12.35 13.33 73.99 158.95 21.93 93.20 274.08 348.07
2009-2010 11.52 10.15 28.91 12.99 14.09 77.65 167.59 23.12 98.28 288.99 366.64
2010-2011 12.01 10.37 30.09 13.52 14.79 80.79 175.14 24.17 102.72 302.02 382.81
2011-2012 12.47 10.60 31.40 14.10 15.59 84.17 181.09 25.20 106.21 312.50 396.67
2012-2013 12.85 10.81 32.54 14.62 16.32 87.14 187.41 26.03 109.93 323.37 410.51
2013-2014 13.26 11.00 33.67 15.13 17.04 90.10 193.52 26.90 113.52 333.95 424.05
2014-2015 13.64 11.21 34.76 15.62 17.76 92.99 199.08 27.59 116.79 343.45 436.44
2015-2016 14.03 11.43 35.91 16.13 18.54 96.05 204.78 28.29 120.14 353.21 449.26
2016-2017 14.40 11.59 36.96 16.61 19.26 98.83 209.99 28.99 123.21 362.19 461.02
2017-2018 14.72 11.74 37.90 17.03 19.91 101.31 215.05 29.69 126.17 370.91 472.22
2018-2019 15.07 11.88 38.95 17.50 20.62 104.03 220.80 30.48 129.55 380.83 484.86
2019-2020 15.43 12.05 39.98 17.97 21.32 106.76 226.65 31.29 132.97 390.91 497.66
2020-2021 15.76 12.18 40.92 18.39 21.96 109.20 232.54 32.10 136.43 401.06 510.27
2021-2022 16.10 12.32 41.87 18.82 22.64 111.75 238.77 32.96 140.08 411.80 523.55
2022-2023 16.42 12.44 42.78 19.23 23.29 114.15 244.72 33.78 143.57 422.06 536.22
2023-2024 16.74 12.55 43.67 19.62 23.95 116.53 250.78 34.62 147.12 432.51 549.04
2024-2025 17.07 12.65 44.52 20.01 24.60 118.84 256.68 35.43 150.57 442.67 561.51
2025-2026 17.42 12.76 45.46 20.43 25.31 121.38 262.92 36.29 154.22 453.43 574.81
2026-2027 17.78 12.88 46.33 20.82 25.99 123.80 269.08 37.14 157.84 464.05 587.86
Low
2007-2008 10.58 9.69 26.50 11.91 12.79 71.47 151.44 20.89 88.79 261.11 332.59
2008-2009 10.33 9.41 25.93 11.65 12.54 69.87 148.15 20.44 86.87 255.47 325.33
2009-2010 10.48 9.49 26.34 11.83 12.75 70.90 150.59 20.78 88.31 259.69 330.58
2010-2011 10.66 9.58 26.77 12.03 13.01 72.05 153.28 21.15 89.90 264.33 336.39
2011-2012 10.77 9.62 27.11 12.18 13.23 72.92 154.57 21.33 90.66 266.56 339.48
2012-2013 10.87 9.68 27.42 12.32 13.43 73.72 155.61 21.48 91.29 268.38 342.10
2013-2014 10.97 9.72 27.73 12.46 13.64 74.52 156.55 21.61 92.06 270.22 344.74
2014-2015 11.08 9.77 28.05 12.61 13.86 75.37 157.83 21.79 92.61 272.22 347.59
2015-2016 11.20 9.83 28.39 12.76 14.10 76.28 159.24 21.99 93.45 274.67 350.95
2016-2017 11.32 9.89 28.74 12.91 14.34 77.19 160.66 22.19 94.29 277.13 354.33
2017-2018 11.43 9.94 29.06 13.05 14.56 78.05 162.25 22.40 95.22 279.87 357.92
2018-2019 11.53 9.99 29.39 13.20 14.79 78.90 163.86 22.63 96.17 282.66 361.55
2019-2020 11.63 10.04 29.72 13.34 15.00 79.74 165.56 22.86 97.16 285.59 365.33
2020-2021 11.73 10.08 30.04 13.49 15.22 80.56 167.31 23.10 98.19 288.60 369.16
2021-2022 11.84 10.13 30.31 13.62 15.44 81.35 169.10 23.35 99.24 291.69 373.04
2022-2023 11.92 10.15 30.55 13.73 15.63 81.98 170.58 23.55 100.10 294.23 376.22
2023-2024 12.00 10.16 30.80 13.84 15.82 82.62 172.03 23.75 100.96 296.74 379.37
2024-2025 12.08 10.18 31.02 13.94 16.01 83.24 173.50 23.96 101.82 299.27 382.51
2025-2026 12.17 10.19 31.25 14.05 16.21 83.87 174.92 24.15 102.65 301.72 385.60
2026-2027 12.26 10.21 31.48 14.15 16.41 84.52 176.47 24.37 103.56 304.39 388.91
56
Appendix 2.4 D
Peak Day Demand - 11/2007 - 10/2027 (Net of DSM Savings)
Peak Day = December 20
Gas Year Klam Falls La Grande Medford GTN Medford NWP Rosburg Oregon Spokane Both Spokane GTN Spokane NWP WA/ID Total
Base
2007-2008 13.86 8.48 41.02 18.43 16.33 98.12 125.17 17.27 73.38 215.81 313.94
2008-2009 14.15 8.57 42.00 18.87 16.62 100.21 128.21 17.69 75.17 221.07 321.28
2009-2010 14.46 8.66 43.05 19.34 17.06 102.58 131.40 18.13 77.06 226.59 329.17
2010-2011 14.80 8.74 44.10 19.81 17.53 104.98 134.74 18.59 79.02 232.35 337.33
2011-2012 15.15 8.82 45.18 20.30 18.04 107.48 138.09 19.06 80.99 238.14 345.62
2012-2013 15.48 8.91 46.35 20.82 18.64 110.20 141.01 19.46 82.71 243.17 353.38
2013-2014 15.78 9.01 47.41 21.30 19.21 112.71 143.66 19.83 84.26 247.75 360.46
2014-2015 16.09 9.10 48.48 21.79 19.78 115.25 146.09 20.18 85.71 251.98 367.22
2015-2016 16.42 9.22 49.61 22.29 20.40 117.94 149.01 20.57 87.43 257.01 374.95
2016-2017 16.76 9.34 50.79 22.82 21.05 120.77 151.97 20.98 89.17 262.13 382.89
2017-2018 17.10 9.45 51.96 23.35 21.70 123.56 155.05 21.41 90.97 267.43 391.00
2018-2019 17.43 9.55 53.07 23.85 22.32 126.22 158.21 21.84 92.83 272.88 399.10
2019-2020 17.74 9.64 54.19 24.35 22.93 128.86 161.42 22.28 94.71 278.41 407.28
2020-2021 18.07 9.75 55.31 24.86 23.56 131.55 164.77 22.75 96.67 284.19 415.75
2021-2022 18.38 9.84 56.38 25.34 24.15 134.09 168.23 23.22 98.70 290.16 424.24
2022-2023 18.70 9.93 57.43 25.81 24.75 136.63 171.76 23.71 100.77 296.24 432.87
2023-2024 19.02 10.01 58.48 26.28 25.35 139.14 175.38 24.21 102.89 302.48 441.62
2024-2025 19.33 10.09 59.51 26.74 25.97 141.63 178.99 24.71 105.01 308.70 450.33
2025-2026 19.66 10.17 60.52 27.20 26.59 144.14 182.62 25.21 107.13 314.96 459.10
2026-2027 19.98 10.24 61.55 27.66 27.22 146.65 186.20 25.70 109.23 321.13 467.78
High
2007-2008 13.89 8.70 41.24 18.53 16.55 98.91 127.41 17.58 74.70 219.69 318.60
2008-2009 14.09 8.69 42.00 18.87 16.70 100.36 129.90 17.92 76.16 223.98 324.34
2009-2010 14.80 8.96 44.27 19.89 17.63 105.56 136.80 18.88 80.22 235.90 341.46
2010-2011 15.41 9.15 46.19 20.75 18.47 109.98 142.94 19.72 83.83 246.49 356.47
2011-2012 16.06 9.34 48.14 21.62 19.36 114.53 147.90 20.57 86.74 255.21 369.73
2012-2013 16.61 9.51 50.07 22.50 20.35 119.05 153.45 21.30 90.00 264.75 383.80
2013-2014 17.14 9.69 51.89 23.32 21.31 123.35 158.76 22.06 93.12 273.94 397.29
2014-2015 17.63 9.84 53.55 24.06 22.18 127.25 163.42 22.64 95.86 281.92 409.18
2015-2016 18.14 10.02 55.30 24.85 23.15 131.46 168.25 23.24 98.70 290.19 421.65
2016-2017 18.62 10.19 56.99 25.61 24.09 135.50 172.57 23.82 101.24 297.64 433.14
2017-2018 19.08 10.31 56.71 25.49 24.99 136.58 176.82 24.41 103.73 304.95 441.53
2018-2019 19.55 10.46 60.22 27.06 25.91 143.21 181.53 25.06 106.49 313.08 456.29
2019-2020 20.02 10.59 61.84 27.79 26.81 147.05 186.39 25.73 109.34 321.46 468.51
2020-2021 20.48 10.73 63.41 28.49 27.70 150.81 191.17 26.39 112.15 329.70 480.51
2021-2022 20.91 10.85 64.94 29.18 28.56 154.44 196.25 27.09 115.12 338.46 492.90
2022-2023 21.36 10.97 66.39 29.83 29.41 157.96 201.25 27.78 118.05 347.08 505.04
2023-2024 21.78 11.07 67.82 30.48 30.25 161.40 206.46 28.50 121.11 356.07 517.47
2024-2025 22.19 11.16 69.16 31.08 31.09 164.68 211.50 29.19 124.06 364.75 529.43
2025-2026 22.66 11.27 70.64 31.75 32.00 168.32 216.91 29.94 127.23 374.07 542.39
2026-2027 23.13 11.36 72.08 32.39 32.91 171.87 222.08 30.65 130.26 382.98 554.85
Low
2007-2008 13.70 8.49 40.60 18.24 16.27 97.29 124.09 17.12 72.75 213.96 311.26
2008-2009 13.37 8.25 39.72 17.84 15.88 95.05 121.43 16.75 71.20 209.38 304.43
2009-2010 13.57 8.32 40.36 18.14 16.14 96.53 123.40 17.03 72.37 212.80 309.33
2010-2011 13.80 8.40 41.07 18.46 16.45 98.17 125.62 17.33 73.67 216.62 314.79
2011-2012 13.96 8.43 41.57 18.68 16.69 99.32 126.75 17.49 74.34 218.58 317.90
2012-2013 14.10 8.47 42.11 18.92 16.98 100.58 127.75 17.63 74.94 220.32 320.89
2013-2014 14.24 8.51 42.61 19.14 17.24 101.74 128.66 17.76 75.63 222.05 323.79
2014-2015 14.38 8.55 43.10 19.37 17.51 102.91 129.79 17.92 76.15 223.86 326.76
2015-2016 14.53 8.60 43.62 19.60 17.81 104.16 130.99 18.08 76.86 225.94 330.09
2016-2017 14.68 8.65 44.17 19.85 18.12 105.47 132.21 18.26 77.59 228.06 333.53
2017-2018 14.84 8.70 44.72 20.08 18.43 106.77 133.55 18.44 78.37 230.36 337.13
2018-2019 14.98 8.75 45.24 20.31 18.72 108.00 134.91 18.63 79.17 232.71 340.72
2019-2020 15.11 8.79 45.76 20.54 19.00 109.20 136.31 18.82 79.99 235.12 344.31
2020-2021 15.25 8.83 46.28 20.78 19.30 110.44 137.78 19.02 80.85 237.65 348.09
2021-2022 15.39 8.87 46.73 21.00 19.58 111.57 139.29 19.23 81.73 240.25 351.82
2022-2023 15.50 8.89 47.11 21.17 19.83 112.50 140.57 19.41 82.48 242.46 354.96
2023-2024 15.61 8.91 47.50 21.35 20.07 113.43 141.80 19.58 83.20 244.58 358.01
2024-2025 15.71 8.92 47.86 21.51 20.31 114.31 143.10 19.76 83.97 246.83 361.14
2025-2026 15.83 8.94 48.21 21.67 20.57 115.22 144.40 19.94 84.73 249.07 364.29
2026-2027 15.94 8.95 48.59 21.84 20.83 116.17 145.69 20.11 85.49 251.29 367.46
57
58
General Assumptions
Appendix 6.1
59
Appendix 6.1 – General Assumptions
Utility Natural Gas Escalation Rates*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.8% 9.0% 0.0% -3.2% -1.4% -1.9% 0.2% 0.7% 2.1% 2.6%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
3.4% 3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% * Source: Global Insights, Inc 4/26/2007 Forecast.
GDP Inflation Rates*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.89% 1.99% 2.07% 2.01% 1.98% 2.01% 1.97% 1.88% 1.85% 1.85%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1.88% 1.92% 1.95% 1.92% 1.96% 1.97% 1.99% 2.00% 1.99% 2.02% * Source: Global Insights, Inc 4/26/2007 Forecast.
Real Discount Rate = 4.18% - Weighted Average after Tax Cost of Capital (jurisdictionally
weighted).
AECO, Sumas, Rockies Prices – See Attached
NYMEX Prices – Were closing 5/9/2007 prices. More current NYMEX prices (11/26/2007)
were analyzed and determined that the change was not significant enough to warrant updating.
Other Pricing:
Station 2 – Sumas minus $.4172
Malin = AECO plus $.2123
Spokane = AECo plus $.2967
Consultant Price Assumptions
2008 2010 2015 2008 2010 2015 2008 2010 2015
Forecasted HH Price (2007 $) $ 8.07 $ 7.06 $ 6.73 $ 7.83 $ 6.58 $ 6.18 $ 8.31 $ 6.62 $ 5.75
US Economic Growth (% GDP) 3.50% 3.20% 3.20% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.05% 3.01% 3.00%
Total US Gas Demand bcf/d) 63.41 65.86 68.27 60.61 62.06 67.8 63.95 65.8 69.38
EG Demand (bcf\d) 18.6 19.81 21.54 17.93 19.36 25.4 17.44 17.48 19.48
World Oil Prices (2007$) $ 65.53 $ 61.17 $ 63.93 $ 55.32 $ 52.62 $ 46.87 $ 67.59 $ 60.61 $ 52.59
US Gas Prod. (bcf\d) 53.27 52.45 49.77 48.32 47.78 46.5 53.22 53.21 53.89
LNG Imports (bcf\d) 2.76 5.82 10.28 4.14 6.84 11.8 3.04 4.97 8.19
Net (Canada & Mexico) Imports (bcf\d) 7.47 7.6 8.22 7.78 7.39 9 7.69 7.62 7.30
Mackenzie Delta Pipeline 1 bcf/d in
service
2014
In service
2012
1.2 bcf/d
in service
2012
Alaska Pipeline 4 bcf/d in
service
2020
In service
2017
3.9 bcf/d
in service
2018
Consultant 1 Consultant 2 AEO 2007
Pipeline Rates
Northwest Pipeline – currently settled rates with pipeline rate increases every five years at GDP
GTN – currently filed rates with pipeline rate increases every five years at GDP
Canadian Pipelines – current rates with pipeline rate increases three years at GDP
60
Natural Gas and WTI Oil Price Relationship:
Heating Degree Days – See Attached
$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75$80$85$90$95$100
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72
Existing Resource Comparisons
Appendix 6.2
73
EXISTING RESOURCES
Appendix 6.2 - OR Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
(Net of DSM Savings) High Demand Case - November through October
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2007-200
8
2008-200
9
2009-201
0
2010-201
1
2011-201
2
2012-201
3
2013-201
4
2014-201
5
2015-201
6
2016-201
7
2017-201
8
2018-201
9
2019-202
0
2020-202
1
2021-202
2
2022-202
3
2023-202
4
2024-202
5
2025-202
6
2026-202
7
Dt
h
Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2 Existing Will Peaking Backhaul Med Lat Peak Day Demand
Appendix 6.2 - WA/ID Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
(Net of DSM Savings) High Demand Case - November through October
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2007-200
8
2008-200
9
2009-201
0
2010-201
1
2011-201
2
2012-201
3
2013-201
4
2014-201
5
2015-201
6
2016-201
7
2017-201
8
2018-201
9
2019-202
0
2020-202
1
2021-202
2
2022-202
3
2023-202
4
2024-202
5
2025-202
6
2026-202
7
Dt
h
Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2 Peak Day Demand
74
EXISTING RESOURCES
Appendix 6.2 - WA/ID Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
(Net of DSM Savings) Low Demand Case - November through October
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2007-200
8
2008-200
9
2009-201
0
2010-201
1
2011-201
2
2012-201
3
2013-201
4
2014-201
5
2015-201
6
2016-201
7
2017-201
8
2018-201
9
2019-202
0
2020-202
1
2021-202
2
2022-202
3
2023-202
4
2024-202
5
2025-202
6
2026-202
7
Dt
h
Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2 Peak Day Demand
Appendix 6.2 - OR Existing Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
(Net of DSM Savings) Low Demand Case - November through October
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2007-200
8
2008-200
9
2009-201
0
2010-201
1
2011-201
2
2012-201
3
2013-201
4
2014-201
5
2015-201
6
2016-201
7
2017-201
8
2018-201
9
2019-202
0
2020-202
1
2021-202
2
2022-202
3
2023-202
4
2024-202
5
2025-202
6
2026-202
7
Dt
h
Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2 Existing Will Peaking Backhaul Med Lat Peak Day Demand
75
76
Served and Unserved Demand
Appendix 6.3
77
Appendix 6.3 - Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Case Gas Year
La
Grande
Served
La
Grande
Unserved
La
Grande
Total
WA/ID
Served
WA/ID
Unserved
WA/ID
Total
High 2007-2008 9.86 - 9.86 268.89 - 268.89
High 2008-2009 9.84 - 9.84 274.08 - 274.08
High 2009-2010 10.15 - 10.15 288.99 - 288.99
High 2010-2011 10.25 0.12 10.37 302.02 - 302.02
High 2011-2012 10.25 0.35 10.60 307.42 5.08 312.50
High 2012-2013 10.25 0.55 10.81 307.52 15.85 323.37
High 2013-2014 10.25 0.75 11.00 307.67 26.28 333.95
High 2014-2015 10.25 0.96 11.21 307.63 35.82 343.45
High 2015-2016 10.25 1.18 11.43 307.23 45.98 353.21
High 2016-2017 10.25 1.34 11.59 305.66 56.53 362.19
High 2017-2018 10.25 1.48 11.74 302.65 68.27 370.91
High 2018-2019 10.25 1.63 11.88 301.21 79.62 380.83
High 2019-2020 10.25 1.80 12.05 299.82 91.08 390.91
High 2020-2021 10.25 1.93 12.18 298.64 102.42 401.06
High 2021-2022 10.25 2.07 12.32 297.43 114.37 411.80
High 2022-2023 10.25 2.18 12.44 296.29 125.77 422.06
High 2023-2024 10.25 2.29 12.55 295.18 137.33 432.51
High 2024-2025 10.25 2.40 12.65 295.99 146.68 442.67
High 2025-2026 10.25 2.51 12.76 296.85 156.57 453.43
High 2026-2027 10.25 2.63 12.88 297.70 166.35 464.05
Case Gas Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls Total
Medford/
Roseburg
Served
Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved
Medford/
Roseburg
Total
High 2007-2008 13.89 - 13.89 74.72 - 74.72
High 2008-2009 14.09 - 14.09 75.36 - 75.36
High 2009-2010 14.80 - 14.80 79.39 - 79.39
High 2010-2011 15.03 0.38 15.41 83.01 - 83.01
High 2011-2012 15.03 1.03 16.06 86.65 - 86.65
High 2012-2013 15.03 1.58 16.61 87.24 2.98 90.22
High 2013-2014 15.03 2.11 17.14 87.24 6.73 93.97
High 2014-2015 15.03 2.59 17.63 87.24 10.04 97.28
High 2015-2016 15.03 3.11 18.14 87.24 13.44 100.68
High 2016-2017 15.03 3.59 18.62 87.24 16.73 103.97
High 2017-2018 15.03 4.04 19.08 87.24 19.95 107.19
High 2018-2019 15.03 4.52 19.55 87.24 25.96 113.20
High 2019-2020 15.03 4.98 20.02 87.24 29.20 116.44
High 2020-2021 15.03 5.44 20.48 87.24 32.36 119.60
High 2021-2022 15.03 5.88 20.91 87.24 35.44 122.68
High 2022-2023 15.03 6.32 21.36 87.24 38.39 125.63
High 2023-2024 15.03 6.75 21.78 87.24 41.30 128.54
High 2024-2025 15.03 7.16 22.19 87.24 44.09 131.33
High 2025-2026 15.03 7.63 22.66 87.24 47.15 134.39
High 2026-2027 15.03 8.10 23.13 87.24 50.13 137.37
78
Appendix 6.3 - Peak Day Demand - Served and Unserved (MDth/d)
Before Resource Additions & Net of DSM Savings
Case Gas Year
La
Grande
Served
La
Grande
Unserved
La
Grande
Total
WA/ID
Served
WA/ID
Unserved
WA/ID
Total
Low 2007-2008 9.69 - 9.69 261.11 - 261.11
Low 2008-2009 9.41 - 9.41 255.47 - 255.47
Low 2009-2010 9.49 - 9.49 259.69 - 259.69
Low 2010-2011 9.58 - 9.58 264.33 - 264.33
Low 2011-2012 9.62 - 9.62 266.56 - 266.56
Low 2012-2013 9.68 - 9.68 268.38 - 268.38
Low 2013-2014 9.72 - 9.72 270.22 - 270.22
Low 2014-2015 9.77 - 9.77 272.22 - 272.22
Low 2015-2016 9.83 - 9.83 274.67 - 274.67
Low 2016-2017 9.89 - 9.89 277.13 - 277.13
Low 2017-2018 9.94 - 9.94 279.87 - 279.87
Low 2018-2019 9.99 - 9.99 282.66 - 282.66
Low 2019-2020 10.04 - 10.04 285.59 - 285.59
Low 2020-2021 10.08 - 10.08 288.60 - 288.60
Low 2021-2022 10.13 - 10.13 291.69 - 291.69
Low 2022-2023 10.15 - 10.15 294.23 - 294.23
Low 2023-2024 10.16 - 10.16 296.74 - 296.74
Low 2024-2025 10.18 - 10.18 299.27 - 299.27
Low 2025-2026 10.19 - 10.19 301.72 - 301.72
Low 2026-2027 10.21 - 10.21 304.39 - 304.39
Case Gas Year
Klamath
Falls
Served
Klamath
Falls
Unserved
Klamath
Falls Total
Medford/
Roseburg
Served
Medford/
Roseburg
Unserved
Medford/
Roseburg
Total
Low 2007-2008 13.70 - 13.70 75.11 - 75.11
Low 2008-2009 13.37 - 13.37 73.44 - 73.44
Low 2009-2010 13.57 - 13.57 74.64 - 74.64
Low 2010-2011 13.80 - 13.80 75.98 - 75.98
Low 2011-2012 13.96 - 13.96 76.94 - 76.94
Low 2012-2013 14.10 - 14.10 78.00 - 78.00
Low 2013-2014 14.24 - 14.24 78.99 - 78.99
Low 2014-2015 14.38 - 14.38 79.98 - 79.98
Low 2015-2016 14.53 - 14.53 81.03 - 81.03
Low 2016-2017 14.68 - 14.68 82.14 - 82.14
Low 2017-2018 14.84 - 14.84 83.23 - 83.23
Low 2018-2019 14.98 - 14.98 84.27 - 84.27
Low 2019-2020 15.03 0.07 15.11 85.31 - 85.31
Low 2020-2021 15.03 0.22 15.25 86.36 - 86.36
Low 2021-2022 15.03 0.36 15.39 87.24 0.07 87.31
Low 2022-2023 15.03 0.47 15.50 87.24 0.87 88.11
Low 2023-2024 15.03 0.57 15.61 87.24 1.68 88.92
Low 2024-2025 15.03 0.68 15.71 87.24 2.44 89.68
Low 2025-2026 15.03 0.80 15.83 87.24 3.21 90.45
Low 2026-2027 15.03 0.91 15.94 87.24 4.03 91.27
79
80
Supply-Side Resources
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Future Resource Comparisons
Appendix 6.5
85
EXISTING AND LEAST COST RESOURCES
Appendix 6.5 - WA/ID Existing & Least Cost Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
(Net of DSM Savings) High Demand Case - November through October
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
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350,000
400,000
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Dt
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Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2NWP Expan & GTN Cap Purch 1 Capacity Release Recall NWP Expan & GTN Cap Purch 2WA/ID Sat LNG Peak Day Demand
Appendix 6.5 - OR Existing & Least Cost Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
(Net of DSM Savings) High Demand Case - November through October
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
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Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2 Existing Wil PeakingBackhaul Med Lat Klam Lat Purchase La Grande Dist Enhance Capacity Release RecallMed Lat Expan 1 Roseburg Sat LNG Med Lat Expan 2 Klam Dist EnhancePeak Day Demand
86
EXISTING AND LEAST COST RESOURCES
Appendix 6.5 - WA/ID Existing & Least Cost Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
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[Note: No new resources required in this planning scenario]
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Appendix 6.5 - OR Existing & Least Cost Resources vs. Peak Day Demand
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0
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Existing GTN Existing TF-1 Existing TF-2 Existing Wil Peaking
Backhaul Med Lat Med Lat Expan 1 Klam Lat Purchase Peak Day Demand
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Load Duration Curves
Appendix 6.6
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Appendix 6.6 - Load Duration Curve & Resource Stack (with DSM) Average/Actual Weather w/Peak Day
High Demand Case - WA/ID
0
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Storage Injections post 2011 Storage Injections '07/'08 '27/'28'17/'18 '07/'08 Current Resources
Appendix 6.6 Load Duration Curve & Resource Stack (with DSM) Average/Actual Weather with Peak Day
High Demand Case - OR
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Storage Injections post 2011 Storage Injections '07/'08 '27/'28 '17/'18 '07/'08 Current Resources
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Appendix 6.6 - Load Duration Curve & Resource Stack (with DSM) Average/Actual Weather w/Peak Day
Low Demand Case - WA/ID
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Storage Injections post 2011 Storage Injections '07/'08 '27/'28'17/'18 '07/'08 Current Resources
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0
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Storage Injections post 2011 Storage Injections '07/'08 '27/'28
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91
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Resource Selections
Appendix 6.7
93
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s
.
T
h
e
r
m
s
a
s
s
o
c
i
a
t
e
d
w
i
t
h
D
S
M
p
r
o
g
r
a
m
s
i
n
c
l
u
d
e
d
i
n
D
S
M
A
p
p
e
n
d
i
x
.
2/
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y
D
t
h
/
d
u
n
l
e
s
s
o
t
h
e
w
i
s
e
n
o
t
e
d
95
96
Demand-Side Management Savings
Appendix 6.8
97
Ap
p
e
n
d
i
x
6
.
8
-
A
n
n
u
a
l
a
n
d
A
n
n
u
a
l
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
D
e
m
a
n
d
S
e
r
v
e
d
b
y
D
e
m
a
n
d
-
S
i
d
e
M
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
1
Ca
s
e
G
a
s
Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l
Kl
a
m
a
t
h
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Kl
a
m
a
t
h
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
La
G
r
a
n
d
e
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
La
G
r
a
n
d
e
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
Me
d
f
o
r
d
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
Ro
s
e
b
u
r
g
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Ro
s
e
b
u
r
g
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
Or
e
g
o
n
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Or
e
g
o
n
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
WA
/
I
D
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
WA
/
I
D
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
Ann
u
a
l
T
o
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
T
o
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
20
0
7
-
2
0
0
8
3.
5
8
9
0
.
0
1
0
1
.
6
9
5
0
.
0
0
5
1
1
.
1
1
7
0
.
0
3
0
3
.
1
1
2
0
.
0
0
9
1
9
.
5
1
3
0
.
0
5
3
6
7
.
6
6
4
0
.
1
8
5
8
7
.
1
7
7
0
.
2
3
9
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
20
0
8
-
2
0
0
9
7.
4
0
8
0
.
0
2
0
3
.
3
8
1
0
.
0
0
9
2
2
.
1
4
2
0
.
0
6
0
6
.
2
0
2
0
.
0
1
7
3
9
.
1
3
4
0
.
1
0
7
1
3
4
.
8
3
7
0
.
3
6
8
1
7
3
.
9
7
1
0
.
4
7
5
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
20
0
9
-
2
0
1
0
11
.
1
1
2
0
.
0
3
0
5
.
0
7
2
0
.
0
1
4
3
3
.
2
1
4
0
.
0
9
1
9
.
3
0
3
0
.
0
2
5
5
8
.
7
0
1
0
.
1
6
1
2
0
2
.
2
5
5
0
.
5
5
4
2
6
0
.
9
5
6
0
.
7
1
5
Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
20
1
0
-
2
0
1
1
14
.
8
1
6
0
.
0
4
1
7
.
0
4
4
0
.
0
1
9
4
4
.
2
8
5
0
.
1
2
1
1
2
.
4
0
4
0
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0
3
4
7
8
.
5
4
9
0
.
2
1
5
2
6
9
.
6
7
4
0
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7
3
9
3
4
8
.
2
2
3
0
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9
5
4
Ex
p
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c
t
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d
20
1
1
-
2
0
1
2
18
.
5
8
0
0
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0
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1
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8
2
9
0
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0
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5
5
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6
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5
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3
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9
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Ex
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d
20
1
2
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2
0
1
3
22
.
2
2
3
0
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0
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1
1
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5
6
6
0
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0
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9
6
6
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4
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1
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6
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8
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4
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8
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4
Ex
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t
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d
20
1
3
-
2
0
1
4
25
.
9
2
7
0
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1
1
2
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2
7
0
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7
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6
4
4
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2
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3
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1
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7
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8
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9
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6
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6
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7
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1
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Ex
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20
1
4
-
2
0
1
5
29
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20
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5
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20
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6
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20
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20
1
9
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42
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20
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20
2
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8
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20
2
2
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2
0
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3
51
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3
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3
8
3
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6
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20
2
3
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4
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7
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d
20
2
4
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2
0
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55
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6
7
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1
5
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5
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3
3
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1
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1
1
2
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8
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4
2
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7
7
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2
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4
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7
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5
5
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5
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t
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d
20
2
5
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2
0
2
6
57
.
9
5
6
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1
5
9
2
6
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3
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1
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4
5
5
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2
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6
0
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.
4
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3
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7
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7
6
0
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Ex
p
e
c
t
e
d
20
2
6
-
2
0
2
7
60
.
2
2
1
0
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1
6
5
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7
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2
8
0
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0
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1
7
1
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6
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3
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1
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0
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4
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2
6
7
5
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2
0
6
2
,
2
0
2
.
6
1
5
6
.
0
3
5
98
Ap
p
e
n
d
i
x
6
.
8
-
A
n
n
u
a
l
a
n
d
A
n
n
u
a
l
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
D
e
m
a
n
d
S
e
r
v
e
d
b
y
D
e
m
a
n
d
-
S
i
d
e
M
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
1
Ca
s
e
G
a
s
Y
e
a
r
An
n
u
a
l
Kl
a
m
a
t
h
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Kl
a
m
a
t
h
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
La
G
r
a
n
d
e
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
La
G
r
a
n
d
e
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
Me
d
f
o
r
d
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Me
d
f
o
r
d
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
Ro
s
e
b
u
r
g
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Ro
s
e
b
u
r
g
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
Or
e
g
o
n
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
Or
e
g
o
n
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
An
n
u
a
l
WA
/
I
D
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
WA
/
I
D
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
Ann
u
a
l
T
o
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
)
Da
i
l
y
T
o
t
a
l
Sy
s
t
e
m
DS
M
(M
D
t
h
/
d
)
Hi
g
h
20
0
7
-
2
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100
Demand-Side Management Selected Measures
Appendix 6.9
101
Appendix 6.9 - Washington/Idaho Preliminary Evaluation Results
Program WA/ID
Energy Star Pressure SteamerNon-residentialcooking Must Take
Programmable ThermostatsNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Radiant heatNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Low Flow ShowerheadsNon-residentialDHW Must Take
Pool blanketResidentialDHW Must Take
Programmable ThermostatResidentialHVAC Must Take
Wall insulationNon-residentialshell Must Take
Pool blanketNon-residentialpool Must Take
Pool blanketResidentialDHW Must Take
horizontal axis clothes washerResidentialappliances Must Take
CrematoriaNon-residentialcrematoria Must Take
Programmable ThermostatResidentialHVAC Must Take
Roof insulationNon-residentialshell Must Take
Pizza / Deck OvenNon-residentialcooking Must Take
Warm Up ControlNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Coin-Op Gas Clothers DryerNon-residentialappliances Must Take
Demand control ventilationNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Conveyer BroilerNon-residentialcooking Must Take
CheesemelterNon-residentialcooking Must Take
SalamanderNon-residentialcooking Must Take
Tankless Water HeaterNon-residentialDHW Must Take
Fireplace dampersResidentialshell Must Take
Vent DamperNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Comm. Gas Clothes DryerNon-residentialappliances Must Take
BoilerNon-residentialDHW Must Take
Condensing Storage Water HeaterNon-residentialDHW Must Take
KilnNon-residentialkiln Must Take
Boiler Tune-upNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Duct sealingResidentialHVAC Must Take
High efficiency boilerResidentialHVAC Must Take
high Efficiency furnaceResidentialHVAC Must Take
Walls insulationResidentialshell Must Take
Window (WA/ID)Residentialshell Must Take
Attic insulationResidentialshell Must Take
Duct sealingResidentialHVAC Must Take
Condensing BoilerNon-residentialDHW Must Take
Duct insulation retrofitResidentialHVAC Must Take
Recirculation ControlsNon-residentialDHW Must Take
CharbroilerNon-residentialcooking Must Take
Recirculation ControlsNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Occupancy sensors for PTAC unitsNon-residentialHVAC Must Take
Duct insulation retrofitResidentialHVAC Must Take
102
Appendix 6.9 - Washington/Idaho Preliminary Evaluation Results
Program WA/ID
Floor insulationResidentialshell SENDOUT®
Condensing Tank Water HeaterNon-residentialDHW SENDOUT®
BBQ / Rotisserie OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT®
High efficiency furnaceResidentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Wall insulationResidentialshell SENDOUT®
Window (WA/ID)Residentialshell SENDOUT®
Condensing boilerResidentialDHW SENDOUT®
Condensing boilerResidentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Air sealing weatherstrippingResidentialshell SENDOUT®
Air sealing weatherstrippingResidentialshell SENDOUT®
Floor insulationResidentialshell SENDOUT®
Tankless water heaterResidentialDHW SENDOUT®
Convection OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT®
Coin-op clothes washerNon-residentialappliances SENDOUT®
Attic insulationResidentialshell SENDOUT®
Power BurnerNon-residentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Gas Pool HeaterNon-residentialpool SENDOUT®
Gas Pool HeaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Gas Pool HeaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Energy recovery ventilationNon-residentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Rack / Tray OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT®
Infrared Fryer GriddleNon-residentialcooking Screened Out
Combi OvenNon-residentialcooking Screened Out
Infrared General Purpose FryerNon-residentialcooking Screened Out
Direct vent gas unit heaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Energy Star HomeResidentialwhole home Screened Out
Direct vent gas unit heaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT®
Exterior doorsResidentialshell Screened Out
Exterior doorsResidentialshell Screened Out
Revolving OvenNon-residentialcooking Screened Out
Pipe insulationResidentialDHW Screened Out
Pipe insulationResidentialDHW Screened Out
Passive solar water heatingResidentialDHW Screened Out
Passive solar water heatingResidentialDHW Screened Out
Oven ConveyerNon-residentialcooking Screened Out
Window retrofitNon-residentialshell Screened Out
Solar waterNon-residentialDHW Screened Out
Salamander (Broiler)Non-residentialcooking Screened Out
Comm clothes washerNon-residentialappliances Screened Out
Cheesemelter (broiler)Non-residentialcooking Screened Out
Gas Spa HeaterNon-residentialpool Screened Out
Gas Spa HeaterResidentialHVAC Screened Out
Gas Spa HeaterResidentialHVAC Screened Out
Open BurnerNon-residentialcooking Screened Out
Combo boiler (hydronic)ResidentialDHW Screened Out
Combo boiler (air)ResidentialDHW Screened Out
Exterior doorsResidentialshell Screened Out
Exterior doorsResidentialshell Screened Out
103
Program Roseburg Medford LaGrande Klamath Falls
Wall insulationResidentialshell Mandated Mandated Mandated Mandated
Floor insulationResidentialshell Mandated Mandated Mandated Mandated
Attic insulationResidentialshell Mandated Mandated Mandated Mandated
Air sealing weatherstrippingResidentialshell Mandated Mandated Mandated Mandated
Pre-rinse sprayersNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
horizontal axis clothes washerResidentialappliances Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Energy Star Pressure SteamerNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Programmable ThermostatsNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Radiant heatNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Pool blanket - MFHResidentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Programmable ThermostatResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Pool blanket - Non resNon-residentialpool Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Pool blanket - SFHResidentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
CrematoriaNon-residentialcrematoria Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Wall insulationNon-residentialshell Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Coin-Op Gas Clothers DryerNon-residentialappliances Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Pizza / Deck OvenNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Roof insulationNon-residentialshell Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Programmable ThermostatResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Conveyer BroilerNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
CheesemelterNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
SalamanderNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Demand control ventilationNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Warm Up ControlNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Tankless Water HeaterNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
BoilerNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
KilnNon-residentialkiln Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Comm. Gas Clothes DryerNon-residentialappliances Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Condensing Storage Water HeaterNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
High efficiency boilerResidentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Fireplace dampersResidentialshell Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
high Efficiency furnaceResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Vent DamperNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Condensing BoilerNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Duct sealing - SFHResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
High efficiency boilerResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
CharbroilerNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Recirculation ControlsNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Condensing Tank Water HeaterNon-residentialDHW Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Boiler Tune-upNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
BBQ / Rotisserie OvenNon-residentialcooking Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Duct sealing - MFHResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Recirculation ControlsNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Duct commissioningResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
High efficiency furnaceResidentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Occupancy sensors for PTAC unitsNon-residentialHVAC Must Take Must Take Must Take Must Take
Appendix 6.9 - Oregon Program Preliminary Evaluation Results
104
Program Roseburg Medford LaGrande Klamath Falls
Appendix 6.9 - Oregon Program Preliminary Evaluation Results
Convection OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Tankless water heaterResidentialDHW SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Rack / Tray OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Infrared Fryer GriddleNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Gas Pool HeaterNon-residentialpool SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Gas Pool HeaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Gas Pool HeaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Energy recovery ventilationNon-residentialHVAC SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Combi OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Infrared General Purpose FryerNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Power BurnerNon-residentialHVAC SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Revolving OvenNon-residentialcooking SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Energy Star HomeResidentialwhole home SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Exterior doorsResidentialshell SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Exterior doorsResidentialshell SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Direct vent gas unit heaterResidentialHVAC SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Direct vent gas unit heaterResidentialHVAC Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Window retrofitNon-residentialshell SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT® SENDOUT®
Coin-op clothes washerNon-residentialappliances Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Passive solar water heatingResidentialDHW Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Passive solar water heatingResidentialDHW Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Oven ConveyerNon-residentialcooking Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Comm clothes washerNon-residentialappliances Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Salamander (Broiler)Non-residentialcooking Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Solar waterNon-residentialDHW Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Cheesemelter (broiler)Non-residentialcooking Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Gas Spa HeaterNon-residentialpool Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Open BurnerNon-residentialcooking Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Combo boiler (hydronic)ResidentialDHW Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Gas Spa HeaterResidentialHVAC Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Gas Spa HeaterResidentialHVAC Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Combo boiler (air)ResidentialDHW Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Exterior doorsResidentialshell Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
Exterior doorsResidentialshell Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out Screened Out
105
106
Demand-Side Management Programs – OR Only
Appendix 6.10
107
Measure Sector
Incremental
measure cost Measure life
Energy
savings/unit
Non-Energy
benefits Levelized TRC
2007/2008
Annual
acquisition
CY 2008 unit
goal
CY 2008
therm goal
CY 2009 unit
goal
CY 2009
therm goal Category Final status
Wall insulation Residential 744$ 45 66 -$ 1.03$ 1,992 34 2,254 39 2,563 Dark green Mandated
Air sealing weatherstripping Residential 250$ 10 38 -$ 1.03$ 948 28 1,073 32 1,220 Dark green Mandated
Floor insulation Residential 1,244$ 45 96 -$ 1.19$ 7,698 91 8,714 103 9,906 Dark green Mandated
Attic insulation Residential 666$ 45 44 -$ 1.38$ 7,872 201 8,910 229 10,129 Dark green Mandated
Pre-rinse sprayers Non-residential 10$ 5 176 91$ (0.12)$ 70,400 400 70,400 - - Green Special pass
Energy Star Pressure Steamer Non-residential 111$ 20 643 -$ 0.02$ 1,286 2 1,290 2 1,326 Green Spreadsheet pass
Programmable Thermostats Non-residential 25$ 20 117 -$ 0.02$ 1,172 10 1,176 10 1,209 Green Spreadsheet pass
Radiant heat Non-residential 25$ 20 117 -$ 0.02$ 586 5 588 5 604 Green Spreadsheet pass
horizontal axis clothes washer Residential 70$ 13 17 61$ 0.07$ 6,800 453 7,697 515 8,750 Green Spreadsheet pass
Pool blanket - MFH Residential 25$ 20 41 -$ 0.07$ 0 - - - - Green Spreadsheet pass
Programmable Thermostat Residential 25$ 20 31 -$ 0.09$ 0 - - - - Green Spreadsheet pass
Pool blanket - Non res Non-residential 2,200$ 10 2,720 -$ 0.13$ 2,720 1 2,729 1 2,805 Green Spreadsheet pass
Pool blanket - SFH Residential 1,100$ 10 1,360 -$ 0.13$ 1,360 1 1,539 1 1,750 Green Spreadsheet pass
Crematoria Non-residential 9,672$ 30 5,537 -$ 0.17$ 0 - - - - Green Spreadsheet pass
Coin-Op Gas Clothers Dryer Non-residential 613$ 11 419 144$ 0.16$ 1,257 3 1,261 3 1,296 Green Spreadsheet pass
Wall insulation Non-residential 0$ 30 0 -$ 0.17$ 1 5 1 5 1 Green Spreadsheet pass
Pizza / Deck Oven Non-residential 466$ 20 256 -$ 0.20$ 256 1 257 1 264 Green Spreadsheet pass
Programmable Thermostat Residential 25$ 20 12 -$ 0.22$ 309 28 350 32 398 Green Spreadsheet pass
Conveyer Broiler Non-residential 1,182$ 15 661 -$ 0.22$ 661 1 663 1 682 Green Spreadsheet pass
Roof insulation Non-residential 0$ 30 0 -$ 0.24$ 1 5 1 5 1 Green Spreadsheet pass
Cheesemelter Non-residential 408$ 15 203 -$ 0.25$ 203 1 204 1 209 Green Spreadsheet pass
Warm Up Control Non-residential 300$ 10 180 -$ 0.26$ 180 1 180 1 185 Green Spreadsheet pass
Salamander Non-residential 300$ 15 137 -$ 0.27$ 137 1 137 1 141 Green Spreadsheet pass
Demand control ventilation Non-residential 1$ 20 0 -$ 0.30$ 1 3 1 3 1 Green Spreadsheet pass
Tankless Water Heater Non-residential 600$ 20 211 -$ 0.31$ 1,055 5 1,058 5 1,088 Green Spreadsheet pass
Comm. Gas Clothes Dryer Non-residential 1,586$ 11 740 -$ 0.31$ 740 1 742 1 763 Green Spreadsheet pass
Boiler Non-residential 11,928$ 20 3,854 -$ 0.34$ 3,854 1 3,867 1 3,975 Green Spreadsheet pass
Condensing Storage Water Heater Non-residential 848$ 15 308 -$ 0.34$ 308 1 309 1 318 Green Spreadsheet pass
Kiln Non-residential 199$ 30 49 -$ 0.39$ 0 - - - - Green Spreadsheet pass
Fireplace dampers Residential 500$ 15 150 -$ 0.41$ 3,748 28 4,243 32 4,823 Green Spreadsheet pass
Vent Damper Non-residential 304$ 12 101 -$ 0.42$ 0 - - - - Green Spreadsheet pass
High efficiency boiler Residential 160$ 20 40 -$ 0.44$ 40 1 45 1 51 Green Spreadsheet pass
High efficiency space heater Residential 275$ 20 64 -$ 0.47$ 322 6 364 6 414 Green Spreadsheet pass
Condensing Boiler Non-residential 36,701$ 20 7,524 -$ 0.53$ 7,524 1 7,549 1 7,760 Green Spreadsheet pass
Recirculation Controls Non-residential 1,311$ 10 386 -$ 0.53$ 386 1 387 1 398 Green Spreadsheet pass
Boiler Tune-up Non-residential 100$ 5 50 -$ 0.51$ 50 1 50 1 51 Green Spreadsheet pass
Charbroiler Non-residential 1,313$ 15 298 -$ 0.55$ 298 1 299 1 307 Green Spreadsheet pass
Duct sealing - SFH Residential 500$ 20 94 -$ 0.58$ 4,687 57 5,305 64 6,031 Green Spreadsheet pass
High efficiency boiler Residential 160$ 20 30 -$ 0.58$ 30 1 34 1 39 Green Spreadsheet pass
Condensing Tank Water Heater Non-residential 3,855$ 15 771 -$ 0.62$ 771 1 774 1 795 Green Spreadsheet pass
BBQ / Rotisserie Oven Non-residential 1,003$ 15 198 -$ 0.63$ 198 1 199 1 204 Green Spreadsheet pass
Duct sealing - MFH Residential 300$ 20 47 -$ 0.70$ 235 6 266 6 302 Green Spreadsheet pass
Duct commissioning Residential 300$ 20 45 -$ 0.73$ 449 11 508 13 578 Green Spreadsheet pass
Recirculation Controls Non-residential 200$ 25 26 -$ 0.77$ 26 1 26 1 27 Green Spreadsheet pass
High efficiency furnace Residential 450$ 20 64 -$ 0.76$ 64,400 1,132 72,895 1,287 82,865 Green Spreadsheet pass
Occupancy sensors for PTAC units Non-residential 200$ 20 26 -$ 0.86$ 0 - - - - Green Spreadsheet pass
Tankless water heater Residential 700$ 15 102 -$ 0.85$ 7,650 85 8,659 97 9,843 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Convection Oven Non-residential 2,696$ 20 324 -$ 0.91$ 324 1 325 1 334 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Rack / Tray Oven Non-residential 9,709$ 20 1,013 -$ 1.05$ 1,013 1 1,016 1 1,045 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Infrared Fryer Griddle Non-residential 2,146$ 20 194 -$ 1.21$ 194 1 195 1 200 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Combi Oven Non-residential 1,667$ 15 164 -$ 1.26$ 164 1 165 1 169 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Power Burner Non-residential 913$ 12 101 -$ 1.26$ 101 1 101 1 104 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Gas Pool Heater Non-residential 3,364$ 20 280 -$ 1.32$ 280 1 280 1 288 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Gas Pool Heater, SFH Residential 3,364$ 20 280 -$ 1.32$ 280 1 316 1 360 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Gas Pool Heater, MFH Residential 3,364$ 20 280 -$ 1.32$ 280 1 316 1 360 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Energy recovery ventilation Non-residential 4$ 20 0 -$ 1.33$ 2 5 2 5 2 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Infrared General Purpose Fryer Non-residential 3,186$ 15 300 -$ 1.32$ 300 1 301 1 309 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Revolving Oven Non-residential 4,870$ 20 364 -$ 1.46$ 364 1 365 1 375 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Energy Star Home Residential 2,870$ 31 145 -$ 1.90$ 7,272 57 8,231 64 9,357 Yellow SENDOUT fail
Exterior doors Residential 100$ 30 5 -$ 1.95$ 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow SENDOUT pass
Exterior doors Residential 100$ 30 5 -$ 1.95$ 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow SENDOUT pass
CY 2008 therms CY 2009 therms
SENDOUT-accepted residential programs 123,491 140,381
SENDOUT-accepted non-residential programs 26,498 27,240
Estimated site-specific acquisition 56,808 58,399
Adjustment for non-res porgram duplication (2,650) (2,724)
Estimated pre-rinse sprayer acquisition 70,400 -
Enhanced commercial / industrial delivery 75,000 75,000
349,547 298,296
Appendix 6.10 - Oregon Measure Final Status and Resource Acquisition
108
Oregon Public Utility Commission IRP Standard and
Guidelines
Appendix 6.11
109
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9
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1
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116
Gu
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1
1
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11
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Gu
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d
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l
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1
2
:
D
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r
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b
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d
G
e
n
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r
a
t
i
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n
12
El
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Gu
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1
3
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R
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A
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13
a
An
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r
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n
;
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o
m
a
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;
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d
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y
B
e
n
c
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m
a
r
k
Re
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r
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n
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i
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c
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m
p
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i
v
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bi
d
d
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n
g
.
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t
a
p
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c
a
b
l
e
t
o
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v
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t
a
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t
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p
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r
a
t
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o
n
s
.
13
b
Na
t
u
r
a
l
g
a
s
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t
i
l
i
t
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s
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h
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t
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IR
P
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d
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d
tr
a
n
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a
t
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n
,
o
r
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a
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pr
a
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t
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s
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w
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I
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a
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o
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d
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m
e
n
t
.
Th
i
s
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n
f
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r
m
a
t
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o
n
w
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l
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b
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p
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d
f
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o
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I
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w
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e
d
g
m
e
n
t
.
117
118
Avoided Cost Determination
Appendix 7.1
119
Ap
p
e
n
d
i
x
7
.
1
-
S
E
N
D
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U
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®
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o
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120
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Annual
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2007 Nov 6.65 6.48 6.53 6.48 6.54 6.46
2007 Dec 7.48 8.01 7.43 8.01 7.73 7.66
2008 Jan 8.73 8.58 8.54 8.58 8.61 8.53
2008 Feb 8.70 8.42 8.48 8.42 8.50 8.42
2008 Mar 8.39 8.20 8.26 8.20 8.26 8.20
2008 Apr 6.75 6.66 6.71 6.66 6.70 6.71
2008 May 6.98 6.88 6.93 6.88 6.92 6.86
2008 Jun 6.61 6.53 6.57 6.53 6.56 6.68
2008 Jul 7.11 7.16 7.11 7.16 7.13 7.03
2008 Aug 7.12 7.03 7.07 7.03 7.06 7.06
2008 Sep 6.79 6.71 6.75 6.71 6.74 6.85
2008 Oct 7.12 7.02 7.07 7.02 7.06 7.06
Avg. 7.37 7.31 7.29 7.31 7.32 7.29
2008 Nov 7.75 7.53 7.59 7.53 7.60 7.53
2008 Dec 8.23 7.53 7.79 7.53 7.77 8.04
2009 Jan 8.17 8.04 8.00 8.04 8.06 7.98
2009 Feb 8.15 7.85 7.91 7.85 7.94 7.85
2009 Mar 7.84 7.65 7.71 7.65 7.71 7.65
2009 Apr 6.20 6.12 6.16 6.12 6.15 5.44
2009 May 6.47 6.38 6.43 6.38 6.42 6.38
2009 Jun 6.17 6.10 6.14 6.10 6.13 6.24
2009 Jul 6.63 6.68 6.63 6.68 6.66 6.56
2009 Aug 6.64 6.57 6.60 6.57 6.60 6.59
2009 Sep 6.34 6.26 6.30 6.26 6.29 6.39
2009 Oct 6.65 6.57 6.61 6.57 6.60 6.60
Avg. 7.11 6.94 6.99 6.94 6.99 6.94
2009 Nov 7.26 7.03 7.10 7.03 7.11 7.03
2009 Dec 7.70 7.24 7.39 7.24 7.39 7.52
2010 Jan 7.63 7.51 7.47 7.51 7.53 7.45
2010 Feb 7.62 7.33 7.39 7.33 7.42 7.32
2010 Mar 7.33 7.14 7.20 7.14 7.20 7.14
2010 Apr 5.78 5.70 5.74 5.70 5.73 5.12
2010 May 6.03 5.95 5.99 5.95 5.98 5.95
2010 Jun 5.77 5.70 5.73 5.70 5.72 5.82
2010 Jul 6.18 6.23 6.18 6.23 6.21 6.12
2010 Aug 6.01 5.94 5.97 5.94 5.97 6.02
2010 Sep 5.91 5.84 5.88 5.84 5.87 5.97
2010 Oct 6.21 6.13 6.17 6.13 6.16 6.16
Avg. 6.62 6.48 6.52 6.48 6.52 6.47
2010 Nov 6.77 6.56 6.62 6.56 6.62 6.56
2010 Dec 7.18 6.98 7.00 6.98 7.03 7.03
2011 Jan 7.03 6.92 6.87 6.92 6.93 6.86
2011 Feb 7.02 6.74 6.80 6.74 6.82 6.74
2011 Mar 6.76 6.57 6.62 6.57 6.63 6.56
2011 Apr 5.33 5.26 5.29 5.26 5.28 5.35
2011 May 5.57 5.50 5.54 5.50 5.53 5.47
2011 Jun 5.60 5.53 5.56 5.53 5.56 5.55
2011 Jul 5.69 5.86 5.69 5.86 5.77 6.52
2011 Aug 5.73 5.66 5.69 5.66 5.68 5.69
2011 Sep 5.43 5.37 5.40 5.37 5.39 5.49
2011 Oct 5.72 5.64 5.68 5.64 5.67 5.67
Avg. 6.15 6.05 6.06 6.05 6.08 6.12
2011 Nov 6.13 6.02 6.08 6.02 6.06 6.02
2011 Dec 6.45 3.70 5.09 3.70 4.74 6.46
2012 Jan 6.58 6.62 6.58 6.62 6.60 6.56
2012 Feb 6.56 6.32 6.44 6.32 6.41 6.36
2012 Mar 6.39 6.29 6.34 6.29 6.33 6.28
2012 Apr 5.09 5.02 5.06 5.02 5.05 4.93
2012 May 5.30 5.23 5.26 5.23 5.25 5.23
2012 Jun 5.35 5.29 5.32 5.29 5.31 5.31
2012 Jul 5.44 5.61 5.44 5.61 5.52 6.27
2012 Aug 5.48 5.41 5.44 5.41 5.44 5.44
2012 Sep 5.21 5.14 5.17 5.14 5.17 5.26
2012 Oct 5.46 5.39 5.43 5.39 5.42 5.41
Avg. 5.79 5.50 5.64 5.50 5.61 5.79
121
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Annual
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2012 Nov 5.88 5.77 5.82 5.77 5.81 5.77
2012 Dec 6.18 1.85 4.02 1.85 3.47 6.14
2013 Jan 6.44 6.47 6.44 6.47 6.45 6.42
2013 Feb 6.42 6.16 6.29 6.16 6.25 6.20
2013 Mar 6.26 6.14 6.20 6.14 6.19 6.14
2013 Apr 5.26 4.42 4.84 4.42 4.73 3.51
2013 May 5.21 5.12 5.16 5.12 5.15 5.12
2013 Jun 4.98 4.90 4.94 4.90 4.93 5.01
2013 Jul 5.32 5.50 5.32 5.50 5.41 6.06
2013 Aug 5.37 5.30 5.33 5.30 5.32 5.33
2013 Sep 5.10 5.03 5.06 5.03 5.05 5.14
2013 Oct 5.41 5.25 5.33 5.25 5.31 5.28
Avg. 5.65 5.16 5.40 5.16 5.34 5.51
2013 Nov 5.75 5.63 5.72 5.63 5.68 5.63
2013 Dec 6.05 2.11 4.11 2.11 3.60 6.02
2014 Jan 6.56 6.61 6.62 6.61 6.60 6.55
2014 Feb 6.55 6.29 6.46 6.29 6.40 6.34
2014 Mar 6.40 6.28 6.37 6.28 6.33 6.28
2014 Apr 5.37 5.02 5.22 5.02 5.16 4.44
2014 May 5.32 5.23 5.30 5.23 5.27 5.23
2014 Jun 5.10 5.00 5.07 5.00 5.04 5.12
2014 Jul 5.44 5.61 5.49 5.61 5.54 6.17
2014 Aug 5.48 5.41 5.47 5.41 5.44 5.44
2014 Sep 5.23 5.13 5.20 5.13 5.17 5.24
2014 Oct 5.53 5.37 5.48 5.37 5.44 5.40
Avg. 5.73 5.31 5.54 5.31 5.47 5.65
2014 Nov 5.87 5.76 5.84 5.76 5.81 5.76
2014 Dec 6.18 2.29 4.27 2.29 3.76 6.15
2015 Jan 6.78 6.83 6.84 6.83 6.82 6.77
2015 Feb 6.77 6.51 6.67 6.51 6.62 6.55
2015 Mar 6.60 6.48 6.57 6.48 6.53 6.48
2015 Apr 5.55 4.77 5.19 4.77 5.07 4.01
2015 May 5.50 5.40 5.48 5.40 5.44 5.40
2015 Jun 5.28 5.17 5.25 5.17 5.21 5.29
2015 Jul 5.61 5.79 5.67 5.79 5.71 6.34
2015 Aug 5.65 5.59 5.65 5.59 5.62 5.61
2015 Sep 5.41 5.31 5.38 5.31 5.35 5.42
2015 Oct 5.71 5.54 5.65 5.54 5.61 5.57
Avg. 5.91 5.45 5.71 5.45 5.63 5.78
2015 Nov 6.07 5.95 6.04 5.95 6.00 5.95
2015 Dec 6.37 2.50 4.47 2.50 3.96 6.38
2016 Jan 6.82 6.87 6.88 6.87 6.86 6.81
2016 Feb 6.81 6.69 6.78 6.69 6.74 6.68
2016 Mar 6.63 6.51 6.61 6.51 6.57 6.51
2016 Apr 5.58 5.20 5.42 5.20 5.35 5.01
2016 May 5.52 5.42 5.50 5.42 5.46 5.42
2016 Jun 5.32 5.20 5.28 5.20 5.25 5.31
2016 Jul 5.64 5.82 5.70 5.82 5.75 6.37
2016 Aug 5.69 5.62 5.68 5.62 5.65 5.64
2016 Sep 5.45 5.35 5.42 5.35 5.39 5.46
2016 Oct 5.74 5.57 5.69 5.57 5.64 5.60
Avg. 5.97 5.56 5.79 5.56 5.72 5.93
2016 Nov 6.10 5.98 6.07 5.98 6.03 5.98
2016 Dec 6.42 2.98 4.72 2.98 4.27 6.42
2017 Jan 6.85 6.90 6.91 6.90 6.89 6.84
2017 Feb 6.84 6.73 6.82 6.73 6.78 6.72
2017 Mar 6.67 6.54 6.64 6.54 6.60 6.54
2017 Apr 5.62 5.23 5.46 5.23 5.39 4.44
2017 May 5.55 5.45 5.53 5.45 5.50 5.45
2017 Jun 5.33 5.25 5.32 5.25 5.29 5.41
2017 Jul 5.67 5.72 5.72 5.72 5.71 5.61
2017 Aug 5.71 5.66 5.70 5.66 5.68 5.70
2017 Sep 5.49 5.41 5.47 5.41 5.44 5.56
2017 Oct 5.78 5.66 5.75 5.66 5.71 5.67
Avg. 6.00 5.63 5.84 5.63 5.77 5.86
122
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Annual
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2017 Nov 6.12 6.00 6.09 6.00 6.05 6.00
2017 Dec 6.45 3.01 4.76 3.01 4.30 6.45
2018 Jan 6.87 6.93 6.94 6.93 6.92 6.87
2018 Feb 6.86 6.75 6.84 6.75 6.80 6.74
2018 Mar 6.70 6.57 6.67 6.57 6.63 6.57
2018 Apr 5.64 5.26 5.48 5.26 5.41 4.14
2018 May 5.57 5.47 5.55 5.47 5.52 5.47
2018 Jun 5.36 5.27 5.34 5.27 5.31 5.43
2018 Jul 5.70 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.74 5.64
2018 Aug 5.74 5.69 5.73 5.69 5.71 5.73
2018 Sep 5.51 5.44 5.50 5.44 5.47 5.58
2018 Oct 5.80 5.68 5.77 5.68 5.73 5.69
Avg. 6.03 5.65 5.87 5.65 5.80 5.86
2018 Nov 6.15 6.03 6.12 6.03 6.08 6.03
2018 Dec 6.47 3.30 4.92 3.30 4.50 6.42
2019 Jan 7.06 7.11 7.12 7.11 7.10 7.04
2019 Feb 7.05 6.92 7.02 6.92 6.98 6.92
2019 Mar 6.87 6.74 6.84 6.74 6.80 6.74
2019 Apr 5.78 5.39 5.61 5.39 5.54 5.08
2019 May 5.72 5.61 5.69 5.61 5.66 5.61
2019 Jun 5.51 5.43 5.49 5.43 5.47 5.58
2019 Jul 5.84 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.88 5.78
2019 Aug 5.88 5.83 5.88 5.83 5.85 5.87
2019 Sep 5.71 5.60 5.67 5.60 5.64 5.74
2019 Oct 5.96 5.83 5.92 5.83 5.89 5.84
Avg. 6.17 5.81 6.02 5.81 5.95 6.06
2019 Nov 6.32 6.19 6.29 6.19 6.25 6.19
2019 Dec 6.64 3.47 5.09 3.47 4.67 6.60
2020 Jan 7.23 7.28 7.29 7.28 7.27 7.22
2020 Feb 7.21 7.08 7.18 7.08 7.14 7.08
2020 Mar 7.04 6.91 7.01 6.91 6.96 6.90
2020 Apr 5.93 5.52 5.75 5.52 5.68 5.09
2020 May 5.86 5.76 5.84 5.76 5.80 5.76
2020 Jun 5.65 5.56 5.63 5.56 5.60 5.72
2020 Jul 5.98 6.05 6.05 6.05 6.03 5.93
2020 Aug 6.03 5.97 6.02 5.97 6.00 6.02
2020 Sep 5.85 5.74 5.81 5.74 5.78 5.88
2020 Oct 6.12 5.99 6.09 5.99 6.05 6.00
Avg. 6.32 5.96 6.17 5.96 6.10 6.20
2020 Nov 6.46 6.33 6.43 6.33 6.39 6.33
2020 Dec 6.79 4.26 5.56 4.26 5.22 6.76
2021 Jan 7.39 7.44 7.45 7.44 7.43 7.38
2021 Feb 7.38 7.25 7.35 7.25 7.31 7.25
2021 Mar 7.19 7.06 7.16 7.06 7.12 7.06
2021 Apr 6.06 5.64 5.88 5.64 5.81 5.08
2021 May 5.98 5.88 5.96 5.88 5.92 5.88
2021 Jun 5.78 5.69 5.75 5.69 5.73 5.85
2021 Jul 6.12 6.18 6.18 6.18 6.17 6.06
2021 Aug 6.16 6.11 6.16 6.11 6.13 6.15
2021 Sep 5.97 5.86 5.94 5.86 5.91 6.01
2021 Oct 6.26 6.12 6.22 6.12 6.18 6.13
Avg. 6.46 6.15 6.34 6.15 6.28 6.33
2021 Nov 6.60 6.48 6.57 6.48 6.53 6.48
2021 Dec 6.95 4.45 5.73 6.90 6.01 6.95
2022 Jan 7.52 7.57 7.58 7.57 7.56 7.50
2022 Feb 7.50 7.38 7.47 7.38 7.43 7.37
2022 Mar 7.32 7.19 7.29 7.19 7.25 7.18
2022 Apr 6.16 5.74 5.98 5.74 5.91 5.51
2022 May 6.10 5.99 6.07 5.99 6.04 5.99
2022 Jun 5.89 5.80 5.87 5.80 5.84 5.95
2022 Jul 6.22 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.27 6.16
2022 Aug 6.27 6.22 6.27 6.22 6.25 6.26
2022 Sep 6.12 5.97 6.07 5.97 6.03 6.11
2022 Oct 6.37 6.23 6.33 6.23 6.29 6.24
Avg. 6.58 6.27 6.46 6.48 6.45 6.48
123
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Annual
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2022 Nov 6.73 6.60 6.70 6.60 6.65 6.60
2022 Dec 7.07 4.73 5.94 7.19 6.23 6.99
2023 Jan 7.64 7.70 7.71 7.70 7.69 7.57
2023 Feb 7.63 7.50 7.60 7.50 7.55 7.49
2023 Mar 7.44 7.31 7.41 7.31 7.37 7.30
2023 Apr 6.27 5.84 6.08 5.84 6.00 5.58
2023 May 6.20 6.09 6.18 6.09 6.14 6.09
2023 Jun 5.98 5.89 5.96 5.89 5.93 6.05
2023 Jul 6.33 6.52 6.39 6.52 6.44 6.31
2023 Aug 6.38 6.32 6.37 6.32 6.35 6.37
2023 Sep 6.24 6.09 6.19 6.09 6.15 6.23
2023 Oct 6.47 6.34 6.44 6.34 6.40 6.34
Avg. 6.70 6.41 6.58 6.61 6.58 6.58
2023 Nov 6.84 6.71 6.81 6.71 6.77 6.71
2023 Dec 7.18 5.06 6.16 9.97 7.09 7.11
2024 Jan 7.77 7.83 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.71
2024 Feb 7.75 7.62 7.72 7.62 7.68 7.62
2024 Mar 7.56 7.43 7.53 7.43 7.49 7.42
2024 Apr 6.38 5.94 6.19 5.94 6.11 5.72
2024 May 6.30 6.19 6.28 6.19 6.24 6.19
2024 Jun 6.09 6.00 6.07 6.00 6.04 6.15
2024 Jul 6.44 6.63 6.50 6.63 6.55 6.42
2024 Aug 6.48 6.42 6.48 6.42 6.45 6.47
2024 Sep 6.35 6.19 6.29 6.19 6.26 6.33
2024 Oct 6.59 6.45 6.55 6.45 6.51 6.45
Avg. 6.81 6.54 6.70 6.95 6.75 6.69
2024 Nov 6.95 6.82 6.92 6.82 6.88 6.82
2024 Dec 7.31 5.40 6.39 10.30 7.35 7.23
2025 Jan 7.90 7.96 7.97 7.96 7.95 7.84
2025 Feb 7.88 7.75 7.85 7.75 7.81 7.75
2025 Mar 7.69 7.57 7.67 7.57 7.62 7.56
2025 Apr 6.51 6.06 6.32 6.06 6.24 5.84
2025 May 6.41 6.29 6.38 6.29 6.34 6.29
2025 Jun 6.20 6.10 6.17 6.10 6.14 6.26
2025 Jul 6.55 6.74 6.62 6.74 6.66 6.53
2025 Aug 6.59 6.54 6.59 6.54 6.56 6.58
2025 Sep 6.46 6.30 6.41 6.30 6.37 6.44
2025 Oct 6.70 6.56 6.66 6.56 6.62 6.57
Avg. 6.93 6.67 6.83 7.08 6.88 6.81
2025 Nov 7.08 6.94 7.05 6.94 7.00 6.94
2025 Dec 7.43 6.17 6.84 11.06 7.87 7.36
2026 Jan 8.03 8.11 8.11 8.11 8.09 7.98
2026 Feb 8.02 7.89 8.00 7.89 7.95 7.89
2026 Mar 7.82 7.70 7.80 7.70 7.76 7.69
2026 Apr 6.62 6.17 6.43 6.17 6.35 5.95
2026 May 6.52 6.40 6.50 6.40 6.46 6.40
2026 Jun 6.30 6.21 6.28 6.21 6.25 6.37
2026 Jul 6.67 6.87 6.73 6.87 6.78 6.65
2026 Aug 6.71 6.65 6.70 6.65 6.68 6.69
2026 Sep 6.57 6.41 6.52 6.41 6.48 6.56
2026 Oct 6.82 6.70 6.79 6.70 6.75 6.70
Avg. 7.05 6.85 6.98 7.26 7.03 6.93
2026 Nov 7.20 7.06 7.17 7.06 7.12 7.06
2026 Dec 7.56 6.56 7.08 13.87 8.77 7.52
2027 Jan 8.14 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.19 8.08
2027 Feb 8.12 8.01 8.10 8.01 8.06 8.00
2027 Mar 7.93 7.81 7.91 7.81 7.87 7.80
2027 Apr 6.71 6.25 6.51 6.25 6.43 6.03
2027 May 6.62 6.50 6.59 6.50 6.55 6.50
2027 Jun 6.39 6.30 6.37 6.30 6.34 6.46
2027 Jul 6.76 6.96 6.83 6.96 6.88 6.74
2027 Aug 6.80 6.74 6.80 6.74 6.77 6.78
2027 Sep 6.77 6.56 6.69 6.56 6.64 6.68
2027 Oct 6.91 6.79 6.89 6.79 6.85 6.79
Avg. 7.16 6.98 7.10 7.59 7.21 7.04
124
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Winter
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2007 Nov 6.65 6.48 6.53 6.48 6.54 6.46
2007 Dec 7.48 8.01 7.43 8.01 7.73 7.66
2008 Jan 8.73 8.58 8.54 8.58 8.61 8.53
2008 Feb 8.70 8.42 8.48 8.42 8.50 8.42
2008 Mar 8.39 8.20 8.26 8.20 8.26 8.20
Avg. 7.99 7.94 7.85 7.94 7.93 7.85
2008 Nov 7.75 7.53 7.59 7.53 7.60 7.53
2008 Dec 8.23 7.53 7.79 7.53 7.77 8.04
2009 Jan 8.17 8.04 8.00 8.04 8.06 7.98
2009 Feb 8.15 7.85 7.91 7.85 7.94 7.85
2009 Mar 7.84 7.65 7.71 7.65 7.71 7.65
Avg. 8.03 7.72 7.80 7.72 7.82 7.81
2009 Nov 7.26 7.03 7.10 7.03 7.11 7.03
2009 Dec 7.70 7.24 7.39 7.24 7.39 7.52
2010 Jan 7.63 7.51 7.47 7.51 7.53 7.45
2010 Feb 7.62 7.33 7.39 7.33 7.42 7.32
2010 Mar 7.33 7.14 7.20 7.14 7.20 7.14
Avg. 7.51 7.25 7.31 7.25 7.33 7.29
2010 Nov 6.77 6.56 6.62 6.56 6.62 6.56
2010 Dec 7.18 6.98 7.00 6.98 7.03 7.03
2011 Jan 7.03 6.92 6.87 6.92 6.93 6.86
2011 Feb 7.02 6.74 6.80 6.74 6.82 6.74
2011 Mar 6.76 6.57 6.62 6.57 6.63 6.56
Avg. 6.95 6.75 6.78 6.75 6.81 6.75
2011 Nov 6.13 6.02 6.08 6.02 6.06 6.02
2011 Dec 6.45 3.70 5.09 3.70 4.74 6.46
2012 Jan 6.58 6.62 6.58 6.62 6.60 6.56
2012 Feb 6.56 6.32 6.44 6.32 6.41 6.36
2012 Mar 6.39 6.29 6.34 6.29 6.33 6.28
Avg. 6.42 5.79 6.11 5.79 6.03 6.34
2012 Nov 5.88 5.77 5.82 5.77 5.81 5.77
2012 Dec 6.18 1.85 4.02 1.85 3.47 6.14
2013 Jan 6.44 6.47 6.44 6.47 6.45 6.42
2013 Feb 6.42 6.16 6.29 6.16 6.25 6.20
2013 Mar 6.26 6.14 6.20 6.14 6.19 6.14
Avg. 6.24 5.28 5.75 5.28 5.64 6.13
2013 Nov 5.75 5.63 5.72 5.63 5.68 5.63
2013 Dec 6.05 2.11 4.11 2.11 3.60 6.02
2014 Jan 6.56 6.61 6.62 6.61 6.60 6.55
2014 Feb 6.55 6.29 6.46 6.29 6.40 6.34
2014 Mar 6.40 6.28 6.37 6.28 6.33 6.28
Avg. 6.26 5.38 5.86 5.38 5.72 6.16
2014 Nov 5.87 5.76 5.84 5.76 5.81 5.76
2014 Dec 6.18 2.29 4.27 2.29 3.76 6.15
2015 Jan 6.78 6.83 6.84 6.83 6.82 6.77
2015 Feb 6.77 6.51 6.67 6.51 6.62 6.55
2015 Mar 6.60 6.48 6.57 6.48 6.53 6.48
Avg. 6.44 5.57 6.04 5.57 5.91 6.34
2015 Nov 6.07 5.95 6.04 5.95 6.00 5.95
2015 Dec 6.37 2.50 4.47 2.50 3.96 6.38
2016 Jan 6.82 6.87 6.88 6.87 6.86 6.81
2016 Feb 6.81 6.69 6.78 6.69 6.74 6.68
2016 Mar 6.63 6.51 6.61 6.51 6.57 6.51
Avg. 6.54 5.70 6.15 5.70 6.03 6.47
125
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Winter
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2016 Nov 6.10 5.98 6.07 5.98 6.03 5.98
2016 Dec 6.42 2.98 4.72 2.98 4.27 6.42
2017 Jan 6.85 6.90 6.91 6.90 6.89 6.84
2017 Feb 6.84 6.73 6.82 6.73 6.78 6.72
2017 Mar 6.67 6.54 6.64 6.54 6.60 6.54
Avg. 6.57 5.82 6.23 5.82 6.11 6.50
2017 Nov 6.12 6.00 6.09 6.00 6.05 6.00
2017 Dec 6.45 3.01 4.76 3.01 4.30 6.45
2018 Jan 6.87 6.93 6.94 6.93 6.92 6.87
2018 Feb 6.86 6.75 6.84 6.75 6.80 6.74
2018 Mar 6.70 6.57 6.67 6.57 6.63 6.57
Avg. 6.60 5.85 6.26 5.85 6.14 6.53
2018 Nov 6.15 6.03 6.12 6.03 6.08 6.03
2018 Dec 6.47 3.30 4.92 3.30 4.50 6.42
2019 Jan 7.06 7.11 7.12 7.11 7.10 7.04
2019 Feb 7.05 6.92 7.02 6.92 6.98 6.92
2019 Mar 6.87 6.74 6.84 6.74 6.80 6.74
Avg. 6.72 6.02 6.40 6.02 6.29 6.63
2019 Nov 6.32 6.19 6.29 6.19 6.25 6.19
2019 Dec 6.64 3.47 5.09 3.47 4.67 6.60
2020 Jan 7.23 7.28 7.29 7.28 7.27 7.22
2020 Feb 7.21 7.08 7.18 7.08 7.14 7.08
2020 Mar 7.04 6.91 7.01 6.91 6.96 6.90
Avg. 6.89 6.19 6.57 6.19 6.46 6.80
2020 Nov 6.46 6.33 6.43 6.33 6.39 6.33
2020 Dec 6.79 4.26 5.56 4.26 5.22 6.76
2021 Jan 7.39 7.44 7.45 7.44 7.43 7.38
2021 Feb 7.38 7.25 7.35 7.25 7.31 7.25
2021 Mar 7.19 7.06 7.16 7.06 7.12 7.06
Avg. 7.04 6.47 6.79 6.47 6.69 6.95
2021 Nov 6.60 6.48 6.57 6.48 6.53 6.48
2021 Dec 6.95 4.45 5.73 6.90 6.01 6.95
2022 Jan 7.52 7.57 7.58 7.57 7.56 7.50
2022 Feb 7.50 7.38 7.47 7.38 7.43 7.37
2022 Mar 7.32 7.19 7.29 7.19 7.25 7.18
Avg. 7.18 6.61 6.93 7.10 6.96 7.10
2022 Nov 6.73 6.60 6.70 6.60 6.65 6.60
2022 Dec 7.07 4.73 5.94 7.19 6.23 6.99
2023 Jan 7.64 7.70 7.71 7.70 7.69 7.57
2023 Feb 7.63 7.50 7.60 7.50 7.55 7.49
2023 Mar 7.44 7.31 7.41 7.31 7.37 7.30
Avg. 7.30 6.77 7.07 7.26 7.10 7.19
2023 Nov 6.84 6.71 6.81 6.71 6.77 6.71
2023 Dec 7.18 5.06 6.16 9.97 7.09 7.11
2024 Jan 7.77 7.83 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.71
2024 Feb 7.75 7.62 7.72 7.62 7.68 7.62
2024 Mar 7.56 7.43 7.53 7.43 7.49 7.42
Avg. 7.42 6.93 7.21 7.91 7.37 7.31
2024 Nov 6.95 6.82 6.92 6.82 6.88 6.82
2024 Dec 7.31 5.40 6.39 10.30 7.35 7.23
2025 Jan 7.90 7.96 7.97 7.96 7.95 7.84
2025 Feb 7.88 7.75 7.85 7.75 7.81 7.75
2025 Mar 7.69 7.57 7.67 7.57 7.62 7.56
Avg. 7.54 7.10 7.36 8.08 7.52 7.44
2025 Nov 7.08 6.94 7.05 6.94 7.00 6.94
2025 Dec 7.43 6.17 6.84 11.06 7.87 7.36
2026 Jan 8.03 8.11 8.11 8.11 8.09 7.98
2026 Feb 8.02 7.89 8.00 7.89 7.95 7.89
2026 Mar 7.82 7.70 7.80 7.70 7.76 7.69
Avg. 7.67 7.36 7.56 8.34 7.73 7.57
126
Appendix 7.1 - SENDOUT® Marginal Cost Determination by Region - Winter
Expected Case
Figures Include Transportation and Storage, Excludes Environmental Externalities - 2007$/Dth
Year Month Klam Falls La Grande Medford Roseburg OR Total WA/ID
2026 Nov 7.20 7.06 7.17 7.06 7.12 7.06
2026 Dec 7.56 6.56 7.08 13.87 8.77 7.52
2027 Jan 8.14 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.19 8.08
2027 Feb 8.12 8.01 8.10 8.01 8.06 8.00
2027 Mar 7.93 7.81 7.91 7.81 7.87 7.80
Avg. 7.79 7.53 7.70 8.99 8.00 7.69
127