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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20231024Errata to Application.pdf 1407 W. North Temple, Suite 330 Salt Lake City, UT 84116 October 24, 2023 VIA ELECTRONIC DELIVERY Jan Noriyuki Commission Secretary Idaho Public Utilities Commission 11331 W. Chinden Blvd Building 8 Suite 201A Boise, ID 83714 RE: CASE NO. PAC-E-23-20 IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER TO UPDATE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS USED IN THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL Errata Filing Attention: Jan Noriyuki Dear Ms. Noriyuki: On October 16, 2023, Rocky Mountain Power (the “Company”) filed an Application in the above-referenced matter. Since that submission, the Company was made aware of an error of the effective date on page 2 and on page 9. The effective date should have been January 1, 2024, as required by Order No. 35274. The Company hereby submits the corrected pages with changes in redline and a clean copy of the entire application. Informal questions related to this matter may be directed to Mark Alder, Idaho Regulatory Manager at (801) 220-2313. Very truly yours, Joelle Steward Senior Vice President, Regulation and Customer & Community Solutions RECEIVED Tuesday, October 24, 2023 12:29:33 PM IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION ERRATA PAGE 2 AND ERRATA PAGE 9 Page 2 be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's IRP filing with the exception of the load and the natural gas forecasts which are to be updated annually by June 1st of each year. The Commission ruled: “We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up to date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR updates - on June 1 of each year. In addition, it is appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments because of the potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable to include long-term contract considerations in an IRP Methodology calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed between IRP filings (every two years).”1 3. Order No. 32802 changed the due date of the annual update from June 1st to October 15th of each year. If approved, the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below will be incorporated into Rocky Mountain Power's IRP avoided cost model. Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this methodology will be utilized by the Company as the starting point for negotiation of contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15, 2023January 1, 2024.. II. LOAD FORECAST 4. The Company's May 2023 and May 2022 long-term load forecasts are summarized in Table 1. The May 2023 load forecast shows overall an increase in load compared to the May 2022 load forecast provided in Case No. PAC-E-22-16, which was subsequently approved by 1 In the matter of the Commission’s review of PURPA QF contract provisions including the Surrogate Avoided Resources (SAR) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) methodologies for calculating avoided cost rates. Case No. GNR-E-11-03, Order No. 32697, p. 22. Page 10 approving this updated information for inclusion in the Company’s IRP avoided cost calculations effective October 15, 2023January 1, 2024. DATED this 24th day of October 2023. Respectfully submitted, ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER ______________________________ Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power CLEAN COPY OF COMPLETE FILING Page 1 Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER TO UPDATE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS USED IN THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL ) CASE NO. PAC-E-23-20 ) ) APPLICATION OF ) ) ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER Rocky Mountain Power, a division of PacifiCorp, (“Company”), hereby respectfully submits this Application to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, ("Commission"), in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and long-term contract components of the Integrated Resource Plan ("IRP") avoided cost model. In support of this Application, Rocky Mountain Power states as follows: 1. Rocky Mountain Power provides electric service to retail customers in the states of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Rocky Mountain Power is a public utility in the state of Idaho and is subject to the Commission's jurisdiction with respect to its prices and terms of electric service to retail customers pursuant to Idaho Code 61-129. Rocky Mountain Power provides retail electric service to approximately 88,000 customers in the state of Idaho. I. BACKGROUND 2. Order No. 32697 specified that the inputs to the IRP methodology calculation, utilized to determine the avoided cost for all new Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (“PURPA”) qualifying facility ("QF") projects that exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will Page 2 be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's IRP filing with the exception of the load and the natural gas forecasts which are to be updated annually by June 1st of each year. The Commission ruled: “We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up to date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR updates - on June 1 of each year. In addition, it is appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments because of the potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable to include long-term contract considerations in an IRP Methodology calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed between IRP filings (every two years).”1 3. Order No. 32802 changed the due date of the annual update from June 1st to October 15th of each year. If approved, the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below will be incorporated into Rocky Mountain Power's IRP avoided cost model. Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this methodology will be utilized by the Company as the starting point for negotiation of contractual avoided cost rates as of January 1, 2024. II. LOAD FORECAST 4. The Company's May 2023 and May 2022 long-term load forecasts are summarized in Table 1. The May 2023 load forecast shows overall an increase in load compared to the May 2022 load forecast provided in Case No. PAC-E-22-16, which was subsequently approved by Commission Order No. 35638. The change in the forecast is primarily due to growth expectations for industrial and commercial customers in Utah. 1 In the matter of the Commission’s review of PURPA QF contract provisions including the Surrogate Avoided Resources (SAR) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) methodologies for calculating avoided cost rates. Case No. GNR-E-11-03, Order No. 32697, p. 22. Page 3 Table 1 Rocky Mountain Power Load Forecast Update Annual GWh Load Forecast - May 2023 Year California Idaho Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming FERC Total 2023 851 3,929 15,682 27,338 4,471 9,549 265 62,083 2024 838 3,933 16,350 28,812 4,493 9,655 250 64,331 2025 830 3,929 17,203 29,761 4,455 9,705 244 66,126 2026 825 3,929 17,561 30,915 4,437 9,689 242 67,599 2027 821 3,926 18,697 32,532 4,412 9,701 117 70,206 2028 819 3,926 20,325 35,625 4,401 9,716 - 74,812 2029 813 3,909 21,786 36,002 4,374 9,673 - 76,556 2030 811 3,897 22,668 36,845 4,358 9,636 - 78,215 2031 808 3,882 23,648 37,222 4,346 9,633 - 79,538 2032 807 3,871 23,991 37,150 4,337 9,620 - 79,776 2033 803 3,849 23,248 37,257 4,311 9,604 - 79,071 2034 801 3,832 23,375 37,355 4,302 9,597 - 79,263 2035 800 3,819 23,560 37,488 4,301 9,597 - 79,564 2036 799 3,811 23,819 37,694 4,317 9,615 - 80,057 2037 795 3,795 24,021 37,778 4,318 9,594 - 80,299 2038 793 3,788 24,293 38,027 4,335 9,608 - 80,844 2039 792 3,785 24,583 38,317 4,359 9,632 - 81,467 2040 793 3,787 24,911 38,640 4,399 9,670 - 82,199 2041 792 3,781 25,195 38,962 4,422 9,680 - 82,832 2042 794 3,791 25,510 39,648 4,468 9,721 - 83,931 Load Forecast - May 2022 Year California Idaho Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming FERC Total 2022 882 3,952 15,524 26,990 4,550 9,499 277 61,673 2023 870 4,024 16,729 27,717 4,574 9,570 275 63,760 2024 868 4,004 18,770 28,501 4,577 9,645 274 66,640 2025 862 4,009 19,905 29,160 4,537 9,912 272 68,656 2026 858 4,019 20,252 29,760 4,513 9,906 270 69,577 2027 858 4,025 21,471 30,146 4,501 9,863 141 71,005 2028 859 4,036 23,158 30,611 4,507 9,928 23 73,122 2029 855 4,033 23,676 31,011 4,490 9,892 23 73,980 2030 854 4,035 23,872 31,268 4,486 9,938 23 74,476 2031 854 4,038 24,723 31,574 4,487 9,921 23 75,621 2032 855 4,047 25,167 31,979 4,506 9,985 24 76,563 2033 852 4,044 24,021 32,332 4,504 9,965 24 75,743 2034 853 4,047 24,230 32,823 4,521 9,966 24 76,463 2035 853 4,048 24,464 33,365 4,542 9,966 24 77,262 2036 854 4,059 24,768 34,041 4,584 10,000 25 78,330 2037 848 4,060 25,007 34,612 4,606 9,994 25 79,152 2038 843 4,071 25,290 35,274 4,647 10,012 25 80,162 2039 838 4,084 25,571 35,932 4,688 10,034 25 81,173 2040 834 4,101 25,898 36,662 4,736 10,079 25 82,336 2041 823 4,104 26,149 37,310 4,746 10,073 26 83,230 Loads are net of Demand Side Management Page 4 III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST 5. The Company’s most recent Official Forward Price Curve (“OFPC”) was prepared on September 29, 2023 (“2309 OFPC”). The price forecast used in Case No. PAC-E-22-16 was prepared on September 30, 2022 (“2209 OFPC”). Table 2 provides the 2309 OFPC natural gas prices summarized annually by market hub. The 2209 OFPC is also provided for reference only. With the exception of Sumas, where gas prices are up slightly, the gas prices in the 2309 OFPC are relatively unchanged or down slightly over most forecast years compared to the 2209 OFPC. Page 5 Table 2 Rocky Mountain Power Natural Gas Price Update $/MMBtu Offical Forward Price Curve (2309) - 09/29/2023 Year Opal Gas Index Sumas Index Stanfield Index San Juan Index Henry Hub Index AECO Index SOCALBOR Index 2023(a) $5.01 $6.87 $3.78 $3.80 $3.01 $1.92 $5.31 2024 $4.48 $5.37 $3.51 $3.86 $3.39 $2.19 $5.07 2025 $4.55 $5.25 $3.83 $4.08 $3.95 $2.74 $5.31 2026 $4.41 $4.89 $3.95 $4.16 $4.09 $3.01 $5.24 2027 $4.53 $4.90 $4.47 $4.46 $4.55 $3.79 $5.20 2028 $4.69 $5.09 $4.94 $4.75 $4.95 $4.43 $5.20 2029 $5.08 $5.51 $5.30 $5.08 $5.17 $4.83 $5.57 2030 $5.15 $5.61 $5.39 $5.13 $5.14 $4.90 $5.66 2031 $5.22 $5.72 $5.51 $5.24 $5.19 $4.94 $5.78 2032 $5.33 $5.86 $5.66 $5.37 $5.30 $5.02 $5.94 2033 $5.55 $6.18 $5.90 $5.60 $5.50 $5.20 $6.18 2034 $5.71 $6.36 $6.12 $5.81 $5.66 $5.33 $6.42 2035 $5.81 $6.31 $6.26 $5.96 $5.76 $5.42 $6.56 2036 $5.92 $6.41 $6.42 $6.12 $5.91 $5.52 $6.72 2037 $6.25 $6.72 $6.79 $6.47 $6.24 $5.79 $7.09 2038 $6.47 $6.93 $7.02 $6.70 $6.47 $5.98 $7.32 2039 $6.80 $7.29 $7.41 $7.08 $6.82 $6.27 $7.71 2040 $7.23 $7.93 $7.84 $7.49 $7.23 $6.66 $8.14 2041 $7.59 $8.30 $8.23 $7.88 $7.63 $6.99 $8.53 2042 $7.99 $8.71 $8.64 $8.30 $8.12 $7.37 $8.95 (a) 2023 Forecast gas prices are for November and December only Offical Forward Price Curve (2209) - 09/30/2022 Year Opal Gas Index Sumas Index Stanfield Index San Juan Index Henry Hub Index AECO Index SOCALBOR Index 2023(a) $5.32 $4.61 $4.62 $5.08 $5.26 $3.59 $5.92 2024 $4.64 $3.99 $3.64 $4.49 $4.74 $3.31 $5.38 2025 $4.54 $3.98 $3.62 $4.43 $4.65 $3.54 $5.46 2026 $4.69 $4.47 $4.35 $4.69 $4.86 $4.15 $5.37 2027 $4.78 $4.85 $4.94 $4.88 $4.99 $4.60 $5.23 2028 $4.78 $4.84 $4.97 $4.92 $5.05 $4.60 $5.26 2029 $4.85 $4.89 $5.08 $5.03 $5.15 $4.68 $5.38 2030 $4.99 $5.04 $5.25 $5.20 $5.37 $4.80 $5.55 2031 $5.11 $5.17 $5.38 $5.33 $5.49 $4.95 $5.68 2032 $5.48 $5.58 $5.66 $5.62 $5.74 $5.29 $5.97 2033 $5.75 $5.83 $5.95 $5.90 $6.03 $5.56 $6.27 2034 $5.83 $5.90 $6.05 $6.01 $6.12 $5.63 $6.38 2035 $5.92 $5.99 $6.14 $6.10 $6.23 $5.73 $6.46 2036 $5.86 $5.93 $6.12 $6.08 $6.19 $5.68 $6.43 2037 $6.10 $6.12 $6.40 $6.36 $6.47 $5.92 $6.72 2038 $6.37 $6.37 $6.69 $6.66 $6.81 $6.18 $7.03 2039 $6.65 $6.64 $7.01 $6.97 $7.15 $6.46 $7.34 2040 $6.78 $6.78 $7.17 $7.15 $7.32 $6.60 $7.51 2041 $7.14 $7.11 $7.53 $7.50 $7.71 $6.95 $7.87 2042 $7.45 $7.42 $7.85 $7.82 $8.07 $7.25 $8.20 (a) 2023 Forecast gas prices are for November and December only Page 6 IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS, EXPIRATIONS, AND ADDITIONS 6. Since filing Case No. PAC-E-22-16, the Company has signed 29 long-term contracts, including 23 long-term contracts with qualifying facilities, for a total nameplate capacity of 1,717.6 megawatts. Five long-term contracts have terminated or expired without renewal for a total nameplate capacity of 63.4 megawatts. Table 3 provides a list of signed and expired or terminated contracts since October 1, 2022. 7. Rocky Mountain Power currently has 46 non-PURPA, long-term power purchase agreements with a nameplate capacity of 4,806 megawatts, and 163 PURPA QF contracts with a nameplate capacity of 2,206 megawatts. New contracts, terminated or expired contracts, as well as new contract pricing are all updated in the IRP model on a continuous basis.   Page 7 Table 3 V. COMMUNICATIONS 8. Communications regarding this filing should be addressed to: Rocky Mountain Power Long‐Term Contracts Long Term Contracts signed since the October 2022 Filing No. Contract   Qualifying Facility  (QF)   Nameplate (MW)   Start Date   End Date  1 Green River Solar I and II w battery storage  PPA                                400 6/15/2025 6/14/2045 2 Buckaroo Solar 1 OR CSP QF PPA 2.4                              12/29/2023 12/28/2043 3 Buckaroo Solar 2 OR CSP QF PPA 3.0                              12/29/2023 12/28/2043 4 Linkville Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 2.8                              10/1/2023 4/30/2043 5 Pilot Rock Solar 1 OR CSP QF PPA 2.0                              9/30/2025 5/24/2043 6 Pilot Rock Solar 2 OR CSP QF PPA 3.0                              9/30/2025 12/30/2042 7 Cherry Creek Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 0.4                              12/31/2022 12/30/2042 8 Whiskey Creek Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 0.2                              12/31/2022 12/30/2042 9 Hay Creek Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 0.6                              12/31/2022 12/30/2042 10 ExxonMobil Power and Gas Services QF PPA 98.0                            1/1/2023 12/31/2023 11 Wocus Marsh Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 0.9                              12/30/2022 12/29/2042 12 Cedar Creek Wind, LLC PPA 151.8                         6/30/2024 6/29/2049 13 Larry Oja and Christie Oja QF PPA 0.2                              2/1/2023 1/31/2043 14 Tesoro Refiniing & Marketing QF PPA 25.0                            1/1/2023 12/31/2023 15 Faraday Solar B LLC PPA 525.0                         9/30/2025 4/30/2046 16 Faraday Energy Storage LLC PPA 150.0                         6/1/2026 4/30/2046 17 Oregon Environmental Industries (Dry Creek Landfill) QF PPA 2.9                              3/6/2023 7/30/2024 18 Lacomb Irrigation District QF PPA 0.8                              4/1/2023 3/31/2038 19 Sunset Ridge Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 2.3                              9/26/2023 9/25/2043 20 Hornshadow Solar, LLC PPA 100.0                         6/30/2025 6/29/2050 21 Hornshadow Solar II, LLC PPA 200.0                         6/30/2025 6/29/2050 22 Pine Grove Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 1.4                              8/29/2023 8/28/2043 23 Round Lake Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 1.0                              8/29/2023 8/28/2043 24 Orchard Knob Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 2.3                              10/5/2023 10/4/2043 25 Antelope Creek Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 2.3                              8/4/2023 8/3/2043 26 7 mile Solar, LLC OR CSP QF PPA 1.0                              10/5/2023 10/4/2023 27 Kennecott Utah Copper - Refinery QF PPA 6.2                              1/1/2024 12/31/2024 28 Kennecott Utah Copper - Smelter QF PPA 31.8                            1/1/2024 12/31/2024 29 City of Albany QF PPA 0.7                              10/10/2023 4/10/2024 Total Signed MW 1,717.6                       Long Term Contracts Expired or Terminated since the October 2022 Filing No. Contract   Qualifying Facility  (QF)   Nameplate (MW)   Date  1 Finley Bioenergy QF 4.8                              11/15/2022 2 Mountain Energy, Inc QF 0.05                            12/31/2022 3 Sunnyside Solar LLC QF 4.99                            1/13/2023 4 eBay QF 0.52                            2/13/2023 5 Sunnyside Cogeneration Associates QF 53.00                         8/31/2023 Total Terminated MW 63.4                             Page 8 Mark Alder Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager Rocky Mountain Power 1407 West North Temple, Suite 330 Salt Lake City, Utah 84116 Telephone: (801) 220-2313 Email: mark.alder@pacificorp.com Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com In addition, Rocky Mountain Power requests that all data requests regarding this Application be sent in Microsoft Word to the following: By email (preferred): datarequest@pacificorp.com By regular mail: Data Request Response Center PacifiCorp 825 Multnomah, Suite 2000 Portland, Oregon 97232 Informal questions may be directed to Mark Alder, Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager at (801) 220-2313. VI. MODIFIED PROCEDURE 9. The Company believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified Procedure; i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. VII. REQUEST FOR RELIEF WHEREFORE, Rocky Mountain Power hereby respectfully submits its updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and QF contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and requests that the Commission issue an order Page 9 approving this updated information for inclusion in the Company’s IRP avoided cost calculations effective January 1, 2024. DATED this 24th day of October 2023. Respectfully submitted, ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER ______________________________ Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power