20211027Application.pdf

ROCKY MOUNTAIN
POWER
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tii:l 0iT 27 Pi{ 3: 5l
ii.:;,-i ,) ,.,uit-i*.a'r:;:i,ar^l./1{l'.:i--: :- ,L'fti.f", 1\i\Jl!'ll
1407 West North Temple, Suite 330
Salt Lake City, Utah &4116
October 27,2021
VA ELECTRONIC DELIWRY
Jan Noriyuki
Commission Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
11331 WChindenBlvd
Building 8 Suite 20lA
Boise,Idaho, 83714
Re CASE NO. PAC.E-}IAO
IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER
TO UPDATE CONTRACTS, LOAD AI\ID GAS FORECASTS USED IN THE
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAI\I AVOIDED COST MODEL
Dear Ms. Noriyuki:
Please find for filing Rocky Mountain Power's application in the above referenced matter to
update current contracts, load forecasts, and natural gas forecasts used as inputs to the IRP
avoided cost model.
Informal inquiries may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Manager at (801) 220-
2963.
Very truly yours,
Vice
J
Emily Wegener (ISB# 11614)
1407 WestNorth Temple, Suite 320
Salt Lake city, utah 84116
Telephone No. (801) 220-44526
E-mail: [e-mail]
Attorneyfor Roclcy Mountain Power
BEFORE THE IDAIIO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN TIIE MATTER OF TIIE APPLICATION ) CASE NO. PAC-E-21-20
oF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER To )UPDATECONTRACTS,LOADANDGAS ) APPLICATIONOF
FORECASTS USED IN TITE INTEGRATED )RESOURCE PLAI\IAVOIDED COST ) ROCI(Y MOUNTAIN POWERMODEL )
Rocky Mountain Power, a division of PacifiCorp, ("Compotry"), hereby respectfully
submits thisApplication to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, ("Commission"), in compliance
with OrderNos.32697 and32802 to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and long-term
contract components of the Integrated Resource Plan ("IRP") avoided cost model. In support of
this Application, Rocky Mountain Power states as follows:
l. Rocky Mountain Power provides electric service to retail customers in the states of
Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Rocky Mountain Power is a public utility in the state of Idaho and is
subject to the Commission's jurisdiction with respect to its prices and terms of electric service to
retail customers pursuant to ldaho Code 6l-129. Rocky Mountain Power provides retail electric
service to approximately 85,700 customers in the state of Idaho.
I. BACKGROUND
2. Order No. 32697 specified that the inputs to the IRP methodology calculation,
utilized to determine the avoided cost for all new Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978
(*PURPA") qualiffing facility ("QF") projects that exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will
Page I
be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's IRP filing with the exception
of the load and the natural gas forecasts which are to be updated annually by June I't of each year.
The Commission ruled:
"We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up to date reJlection of a
utility's true ovoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts ond load
forecasts annually between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these annuql
updates should occur simultaneously with SAR updates - on June I of each year In
addition, it is appropriate to consider long-term controct commitments because of
the potential ffict that such commitments have on a utility's load and resource
balance. We find it reasonable to include long-term contract considerations in an
IkP Methodologt calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into
a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power We further find il
appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired in each
utility's load and resource bqlance. We find it reasonable that all other variables
and assumptions utilized within the IkP Methodologt remain fixed between IRP
filings (every two years)."1
3. Order No. 32802 changed the due date of the annual update from June I't to October
156 of each year. If approved, the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information
presented below will be incorporated into Rocky Mountain Power's IRP avoided cost model
Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this methodology will be utilized by the Company
as the starting point for negotiation of contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15,2021.
II. LOAD FORECAST
4. The Company's August 2021 and June 2020 long-term load forecasts are
summarized in Thble I by annual gigawatt-hours ("GWh"). The August 2021 load forecast shows
a slight increase in load compared to the June2020load forecast provided in Case No. PAC-E-20-
16, which was subsequently approved by Commission Order No. 3491l.
I In the malter of the Commissionb review of PURPA QF contract provisions including the Surrogate Avoided
Resources (SAR) and Integraled Resource Planning (IRP) methodologiesfor calculating avoided cost rates. Case
No. GNR-E-I l-03, Order No.32697,p.22.
Page 2
Table 1
PacifiConr's Annual GWh Load Forecast - Arurst 2021
Year Caffomia Idatro Oregon Utah WashirEton WyomirE FERC Total
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
203t
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
3,953
3,931
3,924
3,908
3,901
3,901
3902
3,910
3,910
3,909
3,913
3,925
3,929
3,941
3,954
3,974
3,984
4,001
4,021
4,044
15,075
15,162
15,310
15,706
15,866
15,798
16,051
16,385
16,640
16,907
17,056
17,273
17,078
17,297
17,525
17,804
18,01I
18,269
18,528
18,830
26,316
26,824
27,521
28,103
28,408
28,766
29,147
29,632
29,924
30,294
30,603
30,984
31,267
31,673
32,082
32,580
32,968
33,414
33,844
34,327
4,505
4,526
4,506
4,489
4,447
4,424
4,412
4,420
4,411
4,417
4,426
4,451
4,451
4,474
4,501
4,547
4,570
4,609
4,648
4.699
8,962
9,206
9,427
9,470
9,665
9,674
9,665
9,698
9,694
9,686
9,690
9,720
9,701
9,708
9,718
9,759
9,759
9,783
9,807
9.855
299
297
29s
294
291
289
l5l
22
22
22
22
23
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
59,982
60,810
61,846
62,833
63,438
63,712
64,187
64,927
65,447
66,089
66,562
67,228
67,296
67,963
68,649
69,536
70,157
70,936
71,704
72.606
872
864
863
864
860
859
859
860
8s6
854
851
8s2
848
847
847
848
842
836
830
825
Load Forecast - June 2020
Year
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
203s
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Calibmia
862
863
861
860
854
849
843
839
832
828
823
821
815
812
808
808
802
799
796
796
Idaho
3,931
3,949
3,944
3,935
3,930
3,927
3,923
3,922
3,909
3,906
3,901
3,907
3,899
3,899
3,900
3,909
3,905
3,91I
3,922
3,939
Oregon
15,076
15,295
15,530
15,756
15,781
15,581
15,691
15,879
15,995
16,105
16,235
16,428
16,558
16,726
16,893
I 7,103
17,246
17,522
17,802
18,123
Utah
25,943
26,478
26,999
27,329
27,630
27,840
28,092
28,492
28,713
29,077
29,399
29,833
30, I 59
30,601
31,066
31,630
32,069
32,573
33,091
33,675
Wyomirg
9,072
9,342
9,580
9,728
9,662
9,723
9,725
9,757
9,752
9,815
g,g3g
9,884
9,881
9,915
9,948
10,01I
10,028
10,066
10,103
10,167
Total
59,617
60,697
61,695
62,390
62,603
62,645
62,846
63,340
63,632
64,179
64,646
65,350
65,791
66,453
67,134
68,016
68,618
69,469
70,343
71,373
Washirgton
4,434
4,474
4,497
4,489
4,456
4,435
4,422
4,430
4,420
4,425
4,427
4,454
4,457
4,477
4,496
4,532
4,545
4,574
4,605
4,649
FERC
299
297
295
294
291
289
lsl
1a
22))
22
ZJ
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
Loads are net of DSM
Page 3
TII. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
5. The Company's most recent Official Forward Price Curve ("OFPC") was prepared
on September 30, 2021 ("2109 OFPC"). The offrcial forward price curve used in Case No. PAC-
E-20-16 was prepared on September 30, 2020 (*2009 OFPC"). Table 2 provides the 2109 OFPC
natural gas prices summarized annually by market hub. The 2009 OFPC is provided for reference
only. Generally, gas prices in the 2109 OFPC are up slightly over the next five years, but down
slightly thereafter compared to the 2009 OFPC.
Table 2 - Natural Gas Price Forecast - 2109 OFPC
Ofical Foruad Price Cune - (2109) - 0980n021
Year
2A\a)
2V22
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2U29
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2W
Opal Cas Index Surms Index Stanfield Index San Juan Index
$7.11 $6.49 $s.72 $6.17
94.64 $4.03 $4.rr $4.35
$3.51 $3.23 $3.37 fi.27
$3.24 $:.Or $3.0E $2.9
$3.09 $3.00 $2.9r $2.87
$2.89 $2.87 i2.76 $2.75
$2.93 s2.n $2.T $2.85
$3.01 $3.01 $2.82 $2.%
$3.08 $3.13 $2.n $.05
$3.2s $3.25 $3.06 $3.2r
$3.39 $3.35 $3.18 $3.36
$3.45 $.A $.24 $3.42
$3.46 $3.45 $3.24 $3.40
$3.6r $3.s7 $3.3s $3.s4
$3.72 $3.63 $3.42 $3.6s
$3.79 $3.68 $3.47 $3.71
$3.9r $3.8r $3.57 $3.Er
$4.09 $3.93 $3.68 $3.99
v.29 $4.11 $3.88 $4.19
$4.45 y.n $.99 $4.34
Henry Hub
Index
$s.93
$4.41
$3.47
$3.21
$3.2s
$3.28
$3.33
$3.46
$3.60
$3.74
$3.E3
$3.89
$3.90
$4.04
$4.10
$4.17
$4.30
$4.s3
M.76
$4.99
AECOlndex
$4.09
$3.19
92.6
$2.43
$2.46
92.47
$2.4s
$2.s0
$2.60
$2.69
92.77
$2.E2
$2.84
92.%
$2.95
$3.01
$3.12
$3.23
$3.44
$3.s4
SOCALBOR
Index
$8.91
$5.92
94.&
$4.20
$3.78
$3.16
$3.24
$3.31
$3.3s
$3.s3
$3.70
$.n
$3.74
$3.88
$4.01
$4.07
$4.19
$4.39
$4.61
$4.7E
Page 4
Ofrcal Forward Price Curue (2009) - 0913012020
Year Opal Cas lndex Sunras Index Stanfield Index San Juan lndex
2021(a) $3.07 $3.78 $2.87 $2.70
2022 $2.49 $2.63 $2.43 52.32
2()2.3 $2.42 $2.48 52.37 $2.29
2024 52.94 W.77 $2.80 $2.9r
2025 $3.40 $3.09 $3.16 $3.46
2026 $3.s4 $3.24 $3.30 $3.60
2027 $3.62 $3.40 $3.37 $3.67
2028 $3.82 53.59 $3.54 $3.84
2029 $4.09 $3.88 $3.83 $4.09
2030 $4.39 $4.19 $4.r3 $4.38
2031 $4.57 $4.33 $4.2s S4.s8
2032 $4.61 $4.40 54.32 $4.60
2033 $4.72 $4.s4 54.44 $4.70
2034 $4.87 V.64 $4.53 M.86
2035 M.99 $4.75 $4.6 $4.95
2036 $5.14 94.94 $4.82 $5.1r
2037 $5.r5 $4.99 $4.86 $s.r r
2038 $5.52 $s.27 $5.15 $5.50
2039 $6.03 $5.76 $5.6r $6.01
2W $6.38 $6.12 $6.01 $6.35
(a)2021 Forecast gas prices are forNovemberand Decemberonly
Henry Hub
Index
s2.96
s2.62
$2.58
$3. ls
$3.65
$3.80
s3.88
$4.10
M.39
$4.76
M.89
s4.!)6
$5.10
$5.26
i5.42
$5.65
$5.68
$5.98
$6.63
$7.0s
AECO Index
$2.28
s1.95
$1.90
$2.31
s2.68
s2.78
$2.85
$3.02
$3.30
$3.60
$3.70
$3.78
$3.92
$4.00
$4.1 I
$4.30
$4.31
$4.58
$5.02
$5.35
SOCALBOR
Index
$3.26
$2.80
$2.73
$3.20
$3.64
$3.80
$3.86
$4.01
s4.27
$4.57
s4;t'l
$4.78
$4.89
$5.04
$5. ls
$5.31
$5.32
$5.70
M.23
$6.59
Table 2 - Natural Gas Price Forecast -2009 OFPC
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS. EXPIRATIONS. AI\[D ADDITIONS
6. Since filing Case No. PAC--20- 16, the Company has signed 26 long-term contracts,
including 2l long-term contracts with qualifying facilities, for a total nameplate capacity of 460.2
megawatts. Three long-term contracts have expired without renewal and eleven long-term
qualifring facility contracts expired or terminated, for a total nameplate capacity of 706.9
megawatts. Table 3 provides a list of signed and expired or terminated contracts since October 8,
2020.
7. Rocky Mountain Power currently has 34 non-PU[tPA, long-term power purchase
agreements with a nameplate capacity of 2,348 megawatts, and 153 PURPA QF project contracts
with a nameplate capacity of 2,248 megawatts. New contracts, terminated or expired contracts, as
well as new contract pricing are all updated in the IRP model on a continuous basis.
Page 5
Table 3
Lonq Term Contracts sisned since the October 2020 Filine
No.Contrect
Nameplate
(MW)Strrt Dste End Date
I
2
3
4
5
6
7I
9
l0
ll
12
l3
t4
l5
16
17
l8
l9
20
2l
22
23
24
25
2(\
J Bar 9 Ranch
Tesoro Refinmg & Marketing Corpany
Kennecott Utah Copper (Snnlter)
Kennecott Utah Copper (Refmery)
E>oonMobil Power and Gas Services
Amy Family Holdings, L[-C
Sunny Bar Ranch. LLLP
Central Oregon Irigation District (Sbhon)
Siskiou Power Authority
Yakirm-Tieton Irrigation Districl
Yalorna-Tieton Irr8ation District
Middle Fork Irrigation District
US Magnesium
Fall River Rural Eectnc Co-op
Connrrrc ial Energy ManagerEnt
Georgetown Inigation Conpany
Sunny Bar Ranch, LIIP
Dry Crcelq LL
Stahlbush Island Fam
Castle Solar, LIC
Mink Creek Hydro, LJf
Loyd Fery
Soloriz Rogue LLC
Public Service Corpany of#2 of Gant County
Public Service Conpany of#2 of Gant County
Public Service Conoanv of #2 of Gant County
0.1
25.0
31.8
7.54
107.4
0.5
o.4
6.0
5.0
1.5
1.4
0.9
36.0
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.4
3.4
t.6
20.0
3.0
0.04
0.1
18.6
150.0
36.4
l/ll202c
ln/2021
vlt2at
l^t2021
lnt202l
vl/2022
5/v2021
vl12023
1^t2021
t/y2021
vt/2021
t/1/2022
lfit202l
4ntzo21
vvzal
4lv202l
5lv2021
5n/2022
6/y2021
6t30t2022
4ll/2022
7nt202t
8lt6/2021
vlt2022
t/1t2022
t/v2022
l0l3t/2025
t2t3y202l
la3v202l
la3v202l
la3v2ul
l2/3v2022
4/30/2m2
lu3u2023
tv3t/2021
t2/3lt2BA
12,3v2030
\U3t/2036
t2t3l/2023
3l3lt2ut
It30/2036
3l3t/2022
4t30/2Mt
4t30/204.2
5t3V2A2
6t29t2M2
3l3v2U2
6/30t2024
8/tst2Mt
ta3v2a2
ta3v2a2
t2/3t/2022
Total SimedMW 460.2
Long Term Contracts Expired or Terminated since the October 2020 Filine
No.Contract (M!v)Date
I
2
J
4
5
6
7
8
9
l0
ll
l2
l3
l4
Deschutes Valley Water Distbt
Public Service Company of #2 of Grant Courty
Publb Service Company of #2 of Grant County
Paul Luckey
Yakima-Tieton In[ation Distrbt
Yakima-Tieton Irrigation D istrbt
Arunna Public Servbe
Kettle Butte Digester
Commercial Enerry Management Inc
Shiloh Warm Spring Ranch
Fall River Rural Electric Cooperation
Sunny Bar Ranch
US Magnesium
Fall River Rural Electric Cooperation
5.93
18.60
150.00
0.1
1.5
1.4
480.00
1.70
0.90
0.95
7.s0
0.4
36.00
2.00
2020 D3t
2020 n3t
20201231
20201231
20201231
2020 2 3t
2021 02 t5
202t 0228
2At B 0t
2021 03 3t
2021Mot
2021M30
202t 07 t6
20210923
Total Terminated MW 706.9
Page 6
V. COMMUNICATIONS
Communications regarding this filing should be addressed to:
Ted Weston
Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager
Rocky Mountain Power
1407 West North Temple, Suite 330
Salt Lake city, utah 84116
Telephone : (80 l) 220 -29 63
Email : ted.weston@f acifi corp.com
Emily Wegener
SeniorAttomey
Rocky Mountain Power
1407 WestNorth Temple, Suite 320
Salt Lake City, Utah 84116
Telephone: [phone]
Email: emi ly.weqener@pacifi corp.com
In addition, Rocky Mountain Power requests that all data requests regarding this Application be
sent in Microsoft Word to the following:
By email (preferred) : datareque st@nac ifi corp.com
By regular mail Data Request Response Center
PacifiCorp
825 Multnomah, Suite 2000
Portland, Oregon 97232
Informal questions may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager at (801)
220-2963.
VI. MODIFIED PROCEDURE
9. The Company believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues
presented herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure; i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq.
8.
PageT
VII. REOTIEST FOR RELIEF
WHEREFORE, Rocky Mountain Power hereby respectfully submits its updated load
forecast, natural gas forecast, and QF contract information in compliance with the Commission's
directives in Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and requests that the Commission issue an order
approving this updated information for inclusion in the Company's IRP avoided cost calculations
effective October 15, 2021.
DATED this 27ft day of October202l.
Respectfu lly submitted,
ROCKY MOI.'NIAIN POWER
a
Emily Wegener
1407 West Norttr Temple, Suite 320
salt Lake city, utah 84116
Telephone No. (801) 2204526
E-mail: [e-mail]
Attorneyfor Rocky Mountain Power
Page 8