20210527Bulkley Exhibit 15.pdf

Case No. PAC-E-21-07
Exhibit No. 15
Witness: Ann E. Bulkley
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER
Exhibit Accompanying Direct Testimony of Ann E. Bulkley
Risk Premium Analysis
May 2O2l
Rocky irountah PotGr
E ribatNo.15Pagp'lor3
Cas6 No. PAGE-21-O7
Wihess: Ann E. Bulklsy
VERTICALLY INTEGRATEO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
(us)
u t2l BI
3o-yearAveragB U.S.
Authorized Trcasry
ElacficROE Eond
Risk
PHrium
1992_ 1
1W2-2
1992.3
1W2.1
1993.1
1993.2
1993.3
1993_4
't994.1
1994.2
1994.3
199,1.4
1995.i
1995.2
1995.3
1995.4
1996.1
1996.2
1996.3
1996.4
1997.1
1997.2
1997.3
1997.4
r998-l
1998.2
1998.3
1998.4
1999.1
1999.2
't999.3
r999.4
2000.1
20c{J.2
2ooo.3
2000.4
2001.1
2001.2
zx,t.3
2001.4
2002.1
2002.2
2002.3
2002.1
2003.1
2403.2
2003.3
2003.4
2004.1
2004..2
zxx.3
?ood.4
zDs.t
2005.2
2(rc5.3
2005.4
2006.1
2006.2
2006.3
20(F.4
N7.1
2!r)7.2
2@1.3
2@1.4
2008.1
2008.2
2008.3
2@8.4
2n9.1
2009.2
2009.3
2009.,1
2010.1
m10.2
ml0.3
20t0.4
m11.1
2011.2
12.38%
11.83%
12.O3%
12.14!Yo
11.84%
11.64%
11.1596
'r.04%
r1.07%
11.13%
12.75%
11.21%
11.9696
11.323r
11.37%
11.58q6
'r.46%
fi.46%
10.70%
11.56%
11.08%
11.62%
12.OO%
It.06%
fi.31%
12.20%
1t.65%
12.30%
10.40%
'r0.94%
10.75%
't t.t0%
11.21%
11.00%
r1.68%
12.50%
1'1.38%
11.00%
10.76%
r1.99%
10.05%
11.41%
11.65%
11.57%
11.72%
11.16%
t0_50%
11.34%
11.00%
10.64%
10.75%
11.24%
10.63%
10.31%
1r.08%
't0.63%
10.70%
'r0.79%
r0.35%
10.65%
10.59%
10.33%
10.40%
r0.65%
10.62%
't0.54%
'10./t3%
10.39%
10.75%
10.75%
10.50%
10.59%
10.59%
to.t8%
't0.40%
10.38%
10.09%
10.26%
7.80%
7.89%
7_45%
7.52lt
7.07%
5.86q6
6.31%
6.r4%
6.57%
7.3596
7.58%
7.96%
7.63%
6.9496
6.71%
6.23%
6.29%
6.92%
5.9696
6.52%
6.81%
6.93%
6.53%
6.14%
5.88%
5.85%
5.47%
5.10%
5.37%
5.79%
6.04%
6.25%
6.29%
5.97%
5.79%
5.69%
5.44%
5.70%
5.52%
5.30%
5.61%
5.08%
4.93%
4.85%
,1.60%
5.'fi96
5.tt%
4.88%
5.32%
4.86%
4.69%
4.47
4.4110
4.68%
4.63%
5.14%
4.99%
1.74%
4.80%
4.99%
4.95%
4.61%
4.41%
4.57%
4.4490
3.65%
3.44%
4.17%
4.32%
4.U%
4.62%
4.36%
3.86%
1.17%
4.56%
4.U%
4.58%
3.93%
4.59%
4-6290
4.7f%
1.79%
4.U%
4.90%
4.49llo
3.78%
517%
3.28%
4.U%
4.37%
4.66%
5.35%
5.17%
4.il%
3-749o
4.94%
4.21%
4.68%
5.47%
4.92%
5.43%
6.35%
6.t8%
7.20&
5.03%
5.15%
4.71
4.85%
4.92%
5.03%
5.89%
6.81%
5.93%
5.30%
5.23&
6.70%
4.54%
5.79%
6.57%
6.64%
6.87%
6.56%
5.39%
6.23%
6.12%
5.32%
5.69%
6_38%
5.93%
5.85%
6.65%
5.95%
6.06%
5.65%
5.35%
5.91%
5.80%
5.34%
5.45%
6.04%
6.21
5.97%
5.98%
6.74%
7.31
6.58%
6.18%
6.26%
5.97%
5.82%
6.55%
6.21%
5.53%
5.92%
RodylhntrhFow
Bdeat No. 15 P.gr 2 d 3
Cer. iib. PAC€-21{7
Wibraa:xrn E 8u[by
201r.3
2011.4
N12.1
m122
20123
N12.1
2013.1
2013.2
2013.3
fr13.1
?ou.1
ml1.2
201/t.3
m11.1
2015.1
Nt162
2{t15.3
m15.1
2016.1
2016.2
2016.3
2O16./t
n17.1
m17.2
2017.3mi.1
20't6.1
20r8.2
2018.3
2014.1
20r9.1
?o1S2
4'l9.3
20r9.4
?oim.1?on2
2020.3
2020.4
N!21.1
10-c7t6
10.3996
10.30"6
9.959a
9.90r
to.tc96
9rIrb
9.E6r
10.129a
9.97%
9.86t6
,0.1096
9.9ota
9.94*
9.64r
e.&na9.{Ir
9.8619
9.7096
9..1816
9.7496
9.0096
9.72r
9.64t6
to.qna
9.Str
9.o!fi
9.73t6
9.8996
9.52r
9.|1t*
9.strr
9.63t3
9.8Era9.n*
9.Cgr
9.Ant
9.5el6
9.6094
3.6S
3.04%
3.14t3
2.90S
2.71*zSdr
3.13*
3.r496
3.7r*
3.799t
3.6994
3-4496
32696
2"9695
2.53f,
2.88*
2.S696
2.96%
2.tit%
2.57
228tX
18396
3.04r
2.9096
2.Unb
2.dnL
3.02t6
3.09t6
3.0696
327%
3.01*
2.ta*
2.2jr96
2.Er
t.8gr
1.38t6
1.37*
1.92%
2.U%
6.8896
7.35*
7.17
f .a2*7.lfi?.9*
6.7i2*
6.XtX
6.al16
6.189t
0.17r
6.66%
6.64*
6.98f,
7.08S
6.94*
6_4X
6.9096
6.98'6
0.9196
7.16%
7.qD6
6.6796
6.75*
7.1ab
7.098
6.66rb
6.60%
6.0396
6.2596
6.71
6.79S6
7.2196
7_8396
7.83t6
8.20t6
7.9it967.*X
7.5396
AVER^GEitEor N
10.67r
10.6293
1.gN
4.08!6
0.01*6.17r
Rftky iiountain Pomr
E)dibit No. l5 Pag6 3 ot 3
Cas€ No. PAC-E-21-07
Witness: Ann E. Bulkley
9.00*
8.00*
7.0016
8.00t6
5.t 0*
4.001
3.00i6
2.00!(
ta
a!EI!
.lE
a a
a
a
a a
t-o0%2.00% 3.q).a a.oo% 5.00* 8.(x)% 7.os,a 8.00x
y-{.Sr53r+0.0869
a aaa
a
a
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regre$bn Sraf,sfics
Multiple R 0.9115768
R Squarc
Adiusted R Squaro
Standard Enor
Ob$ilatms
ANOVA
0.8309722
o.8295024
0_0042435
117
Residual 0.0000't8
0.00120
3Gyear U.S. Tres$ry Bmd (0.57526) 0.02419 (23.78) 0.oo000 (0.62318) (0.52734) (0.62318) (O.527y)
U.S. Govt.
30-year Risk
Trea$ru Premium ROE
,l
115
116
0.002071
o.012252
Curent 3(lday avaraga ot 3G.year U.S. Treasury bond yield [41
Blue Chip Cons$s Fomst (Q3 2021-03 2022) [51Foffist
2.31%
2.60%
2.SO%
7.37%
7.2Wo
9.67%
9.80%
7
Noles:
@ses through March 31, 2021
[2] Sour€: Blo[berg Prof6sional, quartedy bond yields aB the avsrago of every trading day in the quarttr
[3] Equals Cdum rl - Column [2]
[4] SouE: Eloomb€rg Proia$ional, 30{ay aveEge as of March 3'1, 2021
[5t Soure: Eluo Chip Financial Forecasts, Vol. 40, No. 4, Apnl 1,2021, el2
[6] SouE: Blus Chip Financial Forffists, Vol. 37, No. 12, Decamb6r 1,2018, at 14
m s6 nota [4], [5] & [61
[8] Equals 0.086924 + G0.575259 x Column m)
[9] Equals Column m + Colunn [81