20201029Application.pdf

Y ROCKY MOUNTAIN
r-ir .' ;. f l al iP: f\
l+-*.-!1 Ii I ? ii u
tiil *"T E$ Ft{ t?: I E
1407 West North Temple, Suite 330
Salt Lake City, Utah 84116FOWER
A DIVISION OF PACIFICORP
October 29,2020
YIA ELECTRONIC DELIWRY
Jan Noriyuki
Commission Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
I l33l W Chinden Blvd
Building 8 Suite 20lA
Boise,Idaho, 83714
Re:CASE NO. PAC.EAO-rc
IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER
TO UPDATE CONTRACTS, LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS USED IN THE
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL
Dear Ms. Noriyuki:
Please find for filing Rocky Mountain Power's application in the above referenced matter to
update contracts and load and natural gas forecasts used as inputs to the IRP avoided cost model.
Informal inquiries may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Manager at (801) 220-
2963.
Very truly yours,
"^.*D
Vice President, Regulation
Emily Wegener (pro hac vice)
1407 West North Temple, Suite 320
salt Lake city, utah 84116
Telephone No. (801) 220-44526
E-mail: [e-mail]
Attorneyfor Roclcy Mountain Power
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF TrrE APPLICATION ) CASE NO. PAC-E-20-16
oF ROCKY MOUNTAIN PowER TO )UPDATE CONTRACTS, LOAD AND GAS ) APPLICATION OF
FORECASTS USED IN THE INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST ) ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWERMODEL )
Rocky Mountain Power, a division of PacifiCorp, ("Compotry"), hereby respectfully
submits this Application to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, ("Commission"), in compliance
with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and long-term
contract components of the Integrated Resource Plan ("IRP") avoided cost model. In support of
this Application, Rocky Mountain Power states as follows:
l. Rocky Mountain Power provides electric service to retail customers in the states of
Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Rocky Mountain Power is a public utility in the state of Idaho and is
subject to the Commission's jurisdiction with respect to its prices and terms of electric service to
retail customers pursuant to Idaho Code 61-129. Rocky Mountain Power provides retail electric
service to approximately 84,000 customers in the state of Idaho.
I. BACKGROUNI)
2. Order No. 32697 specified that the inputs to the IRP methodology calculation,
utilized to determine the avoided cost for all new Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978
("PURPA") qualifying facility ("QF") projects that exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will
Page I
be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's IRP filing with the exception
of the load and the natural gas forecasts which are to be updated annually by June I't of each year.
The Commission ruled:
"We find that, in order to maintain the most occurote ond up to date reJlection of a
utility's true avoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts and lood
forecasts annually between IRP filings. For the sakc of consistency, these annual
updates should occur simultaneously with SAR updates - on June I of each yean In
addition, it is appropriote to consider long-term contract commitments because of
the potential ffict that such commitments have on a utiltty's load and resource
balance. We find it reasonoble to include longlerm contract considerations in an
IkP Methodolog calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into
a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We further find it
appropriate to consider PURPA controcts thot have terminated or expired in each
utility's load and resource bqlance. We find it reasonable that all other variables
and ossumptions utilized within the IW Methodolog remain fixed between IW
filings (every two years)."1
3. OrderNo. 32802 changed the due date ofthe annual update from June I'tto October
15ft of each year. If approved, the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information
presented below will be incorporated into Rocky Mountain Power's IRP avoided cost model.
Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this methodology will be utilized by the Company
as the starting point for negotiation of contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15, 2020.
II. LOAD FORECAST
4. The Company's June 2020 and July 20l9long-term load forecasts are summarized
in Table I by annual gigawatt-hours ("GWh"). The June2020load forecast shows a slight decrease
in usage for the first three years, but overall an increase in load compared to the July 2019 load
forecast provided in Case No. PAC-E-19-18, which was subsequently approved by Commission
Order No. 34535.
I In the matter of the Commission's review of PURPA QF contract provisions including the Surrogate Avoided
Resources (SAR) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) methodologiesfor calculating avoided cost rates. Case
No. GNR-E-I l-03, Order No. 32697, p. 22.
Page2
Table I
PacffiCom's Annual GWh Load Forecast - June 2020
Year Catifornia Idaho Orcgon Utah Washington Wyoming FERC Total
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
203r
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
861
862
863
861
860
854
849
843
839
832
828
823
82t
815
812
808
808
802
799
796
796
3,878
3,931
3,949
3,944
3,935
3,930
3,927
3,923
3,922
3,909
3,906
3,901
3,907
3,899
3,899
3,900
3,909
3,905
3,911
3,922
3,939
14,664
15,076
1s,295
15,530
15,756
15,781
15,581
15,691
15,879
15,985
16,105
16,235
16,428
16,558
16,726
16,893
17,103
17,246
17,522
17,802
18,123
2s,703
25,943
26,478
26,999
27,329
27,630
27,840
28,092
28,492
28,713
29,077
29,399
29,833
30,159
30,601
31,066
31,630
32,069
32,573
33,091
33,675
4,444
4,434
4,474
4,487
4,488
4,456
4,435
4,422
4,430
4,420
4,425
4,427
4,454
4,457
4,477
4,496
4,532
4,545
4,574
4,605
4,649
8,993
9,072
9,342
9,580
9,728
9,662
9,723
9,725
9,757
9,752
9,815
9,838
9,884
9,881
9,915
9,948
10,01I
10,028
10,066
10,103
10,167
58,844
59,617
60,697
61,695
62,390
62,603
62,645
62,846
63,340
63,632
64,179
64,646
65,350
65,791
66,453
67,134
68,016
68,618
69,469
70,343
71,373
302
299
297
295
294
291
289
l5l
22
22
22
22
23
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
PacifiCom's Annual GWh Load Forecast - July 2019
Year Catifomia Idaho Oreson Utah Washington Wyoming fEBe fqtal
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
203r
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
890
882
877
873
871
865
861
855
852
845
839
833
830
823
819
816
816
810
806
803
802
3,980
3,976
3,972
3,952
3,940
3,936
3,940
3,946
3,955
3,950
3,946
3,943
3,948
3,942
3,948
3,954
3,967
3,970
3,982
3,994
4,010
15,072
15,220
15,425
15,580
15,627
15,609
15,329
15,378
15,474
15,505
15,563
15,626
15,742
15,789
15,873
15,955
16,075
16,123
16,208
16,294
16,418
26,035
26,133
26,362
26,590
26,934
27,150
27,495
27,888
28,364
28,658
28,865
29,070
29,372
29,519
29,772
30,030
30,383
30,619
30,934
31,255
3t,606
4,584
4,558
4,539
4,512
4,505
4,479
4,472
4,466
4,477
4,468
4,470
4,473
4,493
4,489
4,508
4,525
4,560
4,570
4,596
4,622
4"661
9,886
9,689
9,816
9,784
9,788
9,745
9,751
9,736
9,748
9,725
9,729
9,739
9,780
9,774
9,810
9,847
9,913
9,933
9,978
10,023
10,091
298
298
298
298
298
297
297
157
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
60,746
60,756
61,289
61,590
61,963
62,082
62,146
62,425
62,890
63,171
63,431
63,703
64,185
64,356
64,750
65,147
65,734
66,044
66,523
67,011
67,609
loads are net ofDSM
Page 3
III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
5. The Company's most recent Official Forward Price Curve ("OFPC") was prepared
on September 30, 2020 ("2009 OFPC"). The official forward price curve used in Case No. PAC-
E-19-18 was prepared on September 30, 2019 (*1909 OFPC"). Table 2 provides the 2009 OFPC
natural gas prices summarized annually by market hub. The 1909 OFPC is also provided for
reference only. Generally gas prices in the 2009 OFPC are up slightly over the next five to ten
years, but down slightly thereafter compared to the 1909 OFPC.
Table 2 -2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast
Offcal Fomard Price Cuve ($/MMBtu) - (2009) -0980D020
Year
OpalGas
Irdex
Surms
Index
Stanfield
Index
San Juan
Index
HernyHub
Index
SOCALBOR
AECO Index Index
2020(a)
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
$3.09
s2.87
$2.49
$2.42
s2.94
s3.40
s3.s4
s3.62
s3.82
s4.09
$4.39
s4.s7
$4.61
94.72
$4.87
$4.99
ss.14
$s.ls
$5.s2
$6.03
$4.31
$3.1 3
$2.63
s2.48
$2.77
$3.09
$3.24
s3.40
$3.s9
$3.88
$4. l9
s4.33
$4.40
$4.54
$4.64
$4.7s
$4.94
s4.99
$s.27
$s.76
$2.84
s2.71
$2.43
$2.37
s2.80
$3. l6
$3.30
$3.37
$3.s4
$3.83
$4. l3
s4.2s
s4.32
$4.44
$4.s3
s4.66
$4.82
$4.86
$s.1 5
ss.61
$2.s7
s2.61
$2.32
$2.29
$2.91
s3.46
$3.60
$3.67
$3.84
$4.09
$4.38
s4.s8
s4.60
$4.70
$4.86
s4.9s
$5.1 I
ss.ll
$s.50
s6.01
$2.82
$2.92
$2.62
$2.s8
$3.rs
$3.66
$3.80
$3.88
$4.10
s4.39
$4.76
$4.89
$4.96
ss. l0
ss.26
$s.42
s5.6s
ss.68
$s.98
s6.63
$2.1 8
$2.16
$1.9s
$1.90
$2.31
$2.68
$2.78
s2.8s
$3.02
s3.30
s3.60
s3.70
$3.78
s3.92
s4.00
$4.1I
$4.30
$4.3 r
$4.58
$s.02
s3.28
$3. l2
$2.80
$2.73
$3.20
$3.64
$3.80
$3.86
s4.01
$4.27
$4.s7
$4.77
s4.78
$4.89
$s.04
$s.ls
ss.3l
$s.32
$s.70
$6.23
Page 4
Table 2 - 1909 Natural Gas Price Forecast
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS. EXPIRATIONS. AI\D ADDITIONS
6. Since filing Case No. PAC-E-19-18, the Company has signed 24 long-term
contracts, including l3 long-term contracts with qualiffing facilities, for a total nameplate capacity
of 916.1 megawatts. Ten long-term contracts have expired without renewal and seven long-term
qualifring facility contracts were terminated, for a total nameplate capacity of 462.4 megawatts.
Table 3 provides a list of signed and expired or terminated contracts since Octob er 8, 2019 .
7. Rocky Mountain Power currently has 30 non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements with a nameplate capacity of 2,532 megawatts, and 157 PURPA QF project contracts
Offical Forwald Price Curve (S/MMBtu) --09n,0n019
Year
OpalGas
Irdex
Swtus
Index
Stanfeld
kdex
San Juan
Irdex
HernyHub
Index
SOCALBOR
AECO Index Index
2020(a) 52.23 $2.77 $2.02 $2.07
202r s2.03 $2.07 sl.90 $1.91
2022 $2.r4 92j2 $2.03 $2.042023 92.40 $2.40 s2.28 s2.3s2024 $2.69 $2.73 $2.s7 $2.68
202s $2.9s $3.0s s2.84 $2.882026 s3.12 $2.97 $3.00 $3.102027 S3.34 $3.2s s3.19 s3.312028 s3.66 s3.62 s3.50 $3.622029 $4.00 $3.92 $3.86 S3.942030 s4.27 s4.20 s4.13 s4.202031 s4.s8 $4.s0 $4.40 s4.492032 $4.8s $4.66 54.73 $4.76
2033 54.93 S4.71 S4.81 $4.822034 Ss.20 $s.06 $5.08 ss.04203s S5.41 Ss.l7 $s.30 $s.292036 55.49 $s.13 $s.37 s5.352037 S5.SS $s.sl ss.77 $s.732038 s6.17 $s.76 s6.0s $6.012039 $6.29 $s.87 s6.18 $6.13
(a\ 2020 Forecast gas prices are for November ard December only
s2.s2
s2.4s
s2.s4
$2.88
$3.23
$3.s2
s3.69
s3.96
s4.29
$4.s7
s4.80
$5.08
ss.36
$5.35
$5.s9
$s.80
$5.88
s6.29
$6.s8
s6.72
s1.46
s1.42
$1.s6
$1.82
$2.10
s2.40
$2.56
$2.82
$3.1 5
s3.44
s3.66
$3.91
$4.16
s4.15
$4.3s
$4.42
$4.48
$4.82
$s. l0
ss.l8
$2.73
$2.38
$2.47
$2.63
s2.8s
s3.10
s3.29
s3.50
$3.85
$4.17
$4.42
$4.72
s4.97
$s.0s
$5.31
$s.s3
$5.60
ss.99
$6.29
s6.42
Page 5
with a nameplate capacity of 2,348 megawatts. New contracts, terminated or expired contracts, as
well as new contract pricing are all updated in the IRP model on a continuous basis.
Table 3
Rocky Mountain Ponrcr- Long-Term Contrrcts
Long Term Contracts sisned since the October2019 Filinq
No.Contract
Nameplate
(MW)Start Date End Date
1
2
J
4
5
6
7
8
9
l0ll
t2
l3
t4
15
t6
t7
IE
t9
20
2t
22
23
24
m irrcreasing capacity (irrcrease
Reftrcry QF NorrfrrnPPA 2020
Snrcfter QF Non-frrnPPA 2020
Refuing and Marketing Co QF NorrFirm PPA 61 2020
Mobil QF PPA extensbn
Oregon Irigatbn Disfbt QF PPA extersbn
Sohr PPA
Solar PPA
Rocket Sohr PPA
ConnrrrchlErrrgr Managenrcnt Irc. QF PPA extensbn
SkysolSolar QF PPA
Creek Hydro QF PPA (perding conrnbsion approval)
Creek Rural Ebctb Co-op QF PPA (rerding comrnissbn approval)
NorrFirm QF PPA extensbn
Jack Sohr QF PPA
Fery - QF PPA extersbn
Co. Forest Products - QF PPA Extersbn
Gralf PUD - 2021 Meaningfirl Prbriry 18.6 MW @WEB stnre).
GrantPUD - 2021 MeaningfirlPrbrrtyl.5lo/o slbe 150 MW @AC share)
Ebktron Sohr PPA I
Ebktron Sohr PPA 2
Castb Sohr, Ll,C, PPA
SolarI-A, Lrc, PPA
SohrI-B, LLC, PPA
Total MW
13.2
7.54
3 1.8
25.0
107.4
6.0
80
75
80
0.9
55.0
2.7
7.5
6.50
2.7
0.07
6.25
18.6
1s0.0
10.24
69.76
20.0
120.0
20.0
tt/30t2020
110y2020
U0U2020
t/0U2020
yot/2020
t/01D022
t2t3u202t
6t30t2022
6t30t2022
tu2Ut99t
2/28t2023
41u2022
4n/2021
7/01/2020
r0l0t/2021
7/01/2020
8t0u2020
U0U202r
t/0r/2021
t2/3u2022
t2/31/2022
l2/3U2021
9130t2023
gl3o/2023
1U29t2040
12t3y2020
t2/3U2020
l2/3U2020
12t3u2020
1213U2022
t2t3t/2036
10130/2047
l0/30t2047
310y202t
2/27/2023
3/3U2042
313y2041
3/3U2022
t2/3v2041
6/30/2021
7l3l/2025
t2/3U2021
l2/31/202r
t2t30t2042
12130t2047
12/30t2046
9/09t2043
9/09/2043
916.06
. Long Tem Contnacts Expirrd or Terminated since the October2019 Ftlins
No.Contract Nameplate DateI
2
J
4
5
6
7
8
9
10ll
t2
l3
t4
l5
t6
l7
Balhrd HogFarns QF PPA
Mariah Wind, LL,C QF PPA (terrninated)
OREM Wind Fanrly Wird, Lrc QF PPA (erminated)
Foote Creek I Lrc QF PPA
Menill Solar LLC QF PPA (terminated)
Boswell Springs \Lrc,80MW Wyoming QF PPA (terminated)
Boswell Springs II, Lrc, 80MW Wyoming QF PPA (terminated)
Boswell Sprigs trI, LLC, 80MW WyomingQF PPA (termiuted)
Boswell Sprinp IY,Lrc,80MW WyomingQF PPA (terminaed)
Falls Creek QF PPA
Kerurecott Refuery QF Power Puchase Agreenrrt 2019
Kernecofi Snplter QF Power Ptrchase Agreercrf2}l9
Sarflam Water Corfrol District QF PPA
Tesoro Refuing ard Marketing Co QF NorrFirmPPA for 2019
Tri-State Generation and Tiansmission Assochtioq Inc. Long Term ppA
BPA - Foote Creek IV Exchange Agreenrert
J Bar 9 Rancb Ilrc. QF PPA
0.05
10.00
10.00
1.8
10.00
80.00
80.00
80.00
80.00
4.10
7.54
31.8
0.20
25.0
25.0
16.8
0.10
2019 t0 3t
2019 t2 06
2019 1206
2019 t2 t6
2019 t2 t6
2019 t2 t9
20t9 t2 t9
2019 t2 t9
2019 t2 t9
2019 12 3t
2019 t2 3t
20191231
2019 1231
20191231
2020 05 3t
2020 t0 0t
2020 t0 3t
TotalTerminated MW 462.4
Page 6
V. COMMUNICATIONS
Communications regarding this filing should be addressed to:
Ted Weston
Idaho RegulatoryAffairs Manager
Rocky Mountain Power
1407 West North Temple, Suite 330
salt Lake city, utah 84116
Telephone : (801) 220'2963
Email: ted.weston@pacifi corp.com
Emily Wegener
SeniorAttorney
Rocky Mountain Power
1407 WestNorth Temple, Suite 320
Salt Lake City, Utah 84116
Telephone: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]
In addition, Rocky Mountain Power requests that all data requests regarding this Application be
sent in Microsoft Word to the following:
By email (prefened): [e-mail]
By regular mail:Data Request Response Center
PacifiCorp
825 Multnomah, Suite 2000
Portland, Oregon 97232
Informal questions may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager at (801)
220-2963.
VI. MODIFTED PROCEDURE
g. The Company believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues
presented herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure; i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq.
PageT
8
VII. REOUEST FOR RELIEF
WHEREFORE, Rocky Mountain Power hereby respectfully submits its updated load
forecast, natural gas forecast, and QF contract information in compliance with the Commission's
directives in Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and requests that the Commission issue an order
approving this updated information for inclusion in the Company's IRP avoided cost calculations
effective October 15, 2020.
DATED this 29ft day of October,2020.
Respectfu lly submitted,
ROCKYMOUNTAIN POWER
Emily Wegener
1407 West North Temple, Suite 320
salt Lake city, utah 84116
Telephone No. [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]
Attorneyfor RoclE Mountain Power
Page 8