20181015Application.pdf

Y ROCKY MOUNTAIN
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October 15, 2018
i-i;Cf;IVED
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1407 West North Temple, Suite 330
Salt Lake City, Utah 841 16
VIA OVERNIGHT DELIVERY
Diane Hanian
Commission Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 W. Washington
Boise,ID 83702
Re:CASE NO. PAC-E.I8.09
IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER
TO UPDATE CONTRACTS, LOAD AI\D GAS FORECASTS USED IN THE
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL
Dear Ms. Hanian
Please find enclosed an original and seven (7) copies of Rocky Mountain Power's Application in
the above referenced matter.
Informal inquiries may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Manager at (801) 220-
2963.
Very truly yours,
le
Vice President, Regulation
"^-D
Daniel E. Solander (lSB# 8931)
1407 West North Temple, Suite 320
Salt Lake City, Utah 841l6
Telephone No. [phone]
Facsimile No. [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]
Attorneyfor Rocky Mountain Power
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
CASE NO. PAC.E.18.O9
APPLICATION OF
ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER
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Rocky Mountain Power, a division of PacifiCorp, ("Compofly"), hereby respectfully
submits this Application to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, ("Commission"), in compliance
with OrderNos. 32697 and32802 to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and long-term
contract components of the Integrated Resource Plan ("IRP") avoided cost model. [n support of
this Application, Rocky Mountain Power states as follows:
l. Rocky Mountain Power provides electric service to retail customers in the states of
Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Rocky Mountain Power is a public utility in the state of Idaho and is
subject to the Commission's jurisdiction with respect to its prices and terms of electric service to
retail customers pursuant to Idaho Code 6l-129. Rocky Mountain Power provides retail electric
service to approximately 77,000 customers in the state of Idaho.
I. BACKGROUND
2. Order No. 32697 specified that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology,
utilized to determine the avoided cost for all new Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978
I
IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION
OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER TO
UPDATE CONTRACTS, LOAD AI\D GAS
FORECASTS USED IN THE INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAI\ AVOIDED COST
MODEL
("PURPA") qualifying facility ("QF") projects that exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will
be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's IRP filing, with the exception
of the load and the natural gas forecasts which are to be updated annually by June I't of each year.
The Commission ruled:
"We find that, in order to maintain the most occurate and up to date reflection of a
utilityb true avoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts and load
forecasts onnually between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these annual
updates should occur simultaneously with SAR updates - on June I of each year In
addition, it is appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments because of
the potential ffict that such commitments have on o utility s load and resource
balance. We find it reasonable to include longlerm contract considerations in an
IRP Methodologt calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into
a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We further find it
appropriate to consider PURPA controcts that have terminated or expired in each
utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables
and assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodologt remain fixed between IRP
filings (every two years)."1
3. OrderNo. 32802 changed the date of the annual update from June I'tto October
l5th of each year. If approved, the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information
presented below will be incorporated into Rocky Mountain Power's IRP avoided cost model
Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this methodology will be utilized by the Company
as the starting point for negotiation of its contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15,2018.
II. LOAD FORECAST
4. Table I summarizes the Company's July 2018 longterm load forecast with a slight
increase in load compared to the July 2017 load forecast provided in Case No. PAC-E-17-13 that
was approved in Commission Order No. 33952.
2
I Order No. 32697, p.22
III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
5. The Company's most recent Official Forward Price Curve was prepared on
September 28,2018 ("1809 OFPC"). The price forecast used in the Prior Filing was prepared on
September 29, 2017 ("1709 OFPC"). Table 2 provides the 1809 OFPC for natural gas prices
summarized annually by market hub, the 1709 OFPC is also provided for reference only.
Generally, gas prices in the 1809 OFPC are down slightly initially then a little higher over the
remaining years compared to the 1709 OFPC.
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS. EXPIRATIONS. AND ADDITIONS
6. Since filing Case No. PAC-E-17-13, the Company has signed 16 long-term
contracts, including eight long-term contracts with qualifring facilities, for a total nameplate
capacity of 535.3 megawatts. Eleven long-term contracts have expired and two long-term contracts
were terminated, for a total nameplate capacity of 201.1 megawatts. Thble 3 provides a list of
signed and expired or terminated contracts since October 13,2017 .
7. Rocky Mountain Power currently has 17 non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements with a nameplate capacity of 1,064 megawatts, 166 PURPA QF project contracts with
a nameplate capacity of 2,7 75 megawatts. New contracts, terminated or expired contracts, as well
as new contract pricing are all included in the IRP model on a continuous basis.
J
TABLE 1
Load Forecast U IG
I-oad Forecast - July 2018
Year Califomia Idalto Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming FERC Total
201 8
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
203s
2036
2037
2038
875
877
880
870
863
857
853
844
838
832
830
824
819
813
811
805
802
800
800
796
795
3,917
3,931
3,934
3,928
3,932
3,938
3,946
3,940
3,939
3,941
3,949
3,946
3,947
3,948
3,958
3,958
3,966
3,977
3,992
3,995
4,0o4
14,747
15,051
15,126
l5,l9l
15,276
15,306
15,384
15,380
1s,094
ts,t47
15,26t
15,295
15,348
15,408
15,500
15,5 l6
15,581
15,649
15,767
15,799
15,875
25,208
25,033
25,154
25,172
25,328
25,543
25,807
25,913
26,lll
26,286
26,477
26,471
26,498
26,503
26,616
26,617
26,732
26,849
27,059
27,143
27,309
4,522
4,575
4,576
4,548
4,537
4,531
4,539
L <)'.)
4,524
4,533
4,562
4,570
4,592
4,675
4,656
4,674
4,709
4,746
4,799
4,824
4,864
9,894
9,921
9,781
9,623
9,573
9,598
9,664
9,601
9,602
9,648
9,644
9,633
9,680
9,651
9,693
9,731
9,724
9,760
9,858
9,830
9,862
59,486
59,708
59,770
59,649
59,824
60,086
60,503
60,509
60,415
60,556
60,759
60,775
60,921
60,974
61,270
6r,337
61,551
6l,817
62,311
62,423
62,746
322
320
319
316
3t4
312
311
308
306
169
37
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
I-oad Forecast - July 2017
Year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
202s
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
Califomb
888
879
867
854
845
836
831
820
8ll
803
798
789
782
774
769
760
75s
751
749
742
739
Idaho
3,853
3,857
3,857
3,852
3,860
3,872
3,887
3,889
3,896
3,903
3,916
3,919
3,924
3,928
3,941
3,943
3,953
3,966
3,984
3,990
4,002
Oregon
14,871
14,943
14,908
14,803
14,773
14,768
14,907
14,771
14,251
14,258
14,312
14,305
14,275
14,288
14,328
14,304
14,311
14,319
14,368
14,352
14,392
Utah
24,769
24,725
24,637
24,566
24,615
24,670
24,781
24,759
24,786
24,816
24,951
24,994
2s,060
25,097
25,234
25,268
25,399
25,548
25,786
25,903
26,098
Washington
4,484
4,471
4,44',7
4,400
4,37O
4,350
4,347
4,324
4,317
4,312
4,324
4,314
4,316
4,320
4,339
4,336
4,349
4,366
4,397
4,402
4,420
Wyoming
9,924
9,847
9,813
9,774
9,775
9,775
9,797
9,761
9,754
9,753
9,786
9,768
9,774
9,780
9,818
g,g0g
9,834
9,863
9,918
9,920
9,946
Total
59,1 l0
59,045
58,852
58,570
58,559
58,592
58,773
58,644
58, I 35
58,026
58, I 28
58,129
58,171
58,226
58,469
58,459
58,640
58,851
59,242
59,348
59,636
FERC
323
322
)2.)
322
322
322
322
321
321
l8l
4t
40
40
40
40
40
39
39
39
39
39
4
Loads ile net of DSM
TABLE 2
Offcal Forruard Price Curve -- 09t28t20t8
Natural Gas Price U
Opal Cas lndex Sumas Index
$2.47 $2.61
$2.18 $2.M
$2.08 $1.v2
$2.14 $1.92
$2.65 $2.30
$3.17 $2.73
$3.64 $3.32
$4.00 $3.66y.20 $3.88
v.17 $3.83
v.t2 s3.77v.44 $4.09
$5.01 M.63
$s.34 94.92
$5.68 $5.21
$6.05 $5.s4
$6.40 $5.81
$6.17 $5.40
$6.26 $5.41
$6.64 $s.70
Stanfield Index San Juan lndex
$2.2s $2.18
$1.91 $1.98
$r.85 $2.01
$1.98 $2.10
$2.s7 $2.63
$3.14 $3.16
$.a $.61
$3.99 $3.98
$4.19 M.l9
$4.15 V.t1
$4.10 $4.13
v.42 V.46
s4.9 $5.03
$s.32 $s.37
$5.64 $s.69
$5.94 $6.05
$6.29 $6.37
$6.06 $6.10
$6.1s $6.17
$6.54 $6.s5
Henry Hub
Index
$3.06
$2.78
$2.U
$2.66
$3.1s
$3.66
$4.20
$4.s3
$4.77
y.76
$4.72
ss.09
s5.65
$s.89
ffi.22
$6.56
$6.81
$6.47
$6.51
$6.91
AECO Index
$l.s l
$1.28
$1.26
$1.46
$2.01
$2.s6
$3. l3
$3.48
$3.74
$3.72
$3.6s
$3.98
$4.s3
$4.80
$s.09
$s.41
$5.6s
$s.26
$5.2s
$5.55
SOCALBOR
Index
$2.97
v.69
$2.45
$2.50
$2.93
$3.39
$3.87
v.26
s4.49
94.47
$4.42
y.76
$s.36
$5.71
$5.01
$6.39
$6.73
$6.46
$5.54
$6.95
Ofrcal Forrvard Price Curve - 09/29t2017
Year Opal Cas Index Sumas Index Stanfield Index San Juan lndex
2018(a) $2.66 $2.61 $2.s1 $2.s8
2019 52.47 $2.19 $2.32 $2.43
2020 $2.43 $2.18 $2.32 $2.41
2At $2.4s $2.22 $2.34 $2.43
2A2 $2.47 $2.29 $2.36 52.49
2023 $2.60 $2.44 $2.s0 $2.9
2024 $3.28 $3.0s s3.22 $3.32
zns $3.84 $3.58 $3.81 $3.89
2026 $3.84 $3.63 $3.80 $3.90
2A7 $3.98 $3.83 $3.94 M.os
2028 M.16 $4.05 $4.11 94.24
2029 $4.4s v.M $4.40 $4.s1
2030 $4.74 v.7s M.68 $4.78
2031 y.99 $4.99 $4.93 $s.01
2032 $s.15 $5.11 $5.09 $5.16
2033 $5.38 $s.36 $5.32 $5.40
2034 $s.60 $s.56 $5.55 $5.63
203s $s.79 $s.71 $s.73 $s.81
2036 $6.14 $6.04 s6.07 $6.16
2037 $6.31 $6.22 $6.23 $6.32
(a) 2018 Forecast gas prices are for November and December only
5
Index
$3.04
$2.89
$2.84
$2.83
$2.85
$2.97
$3.60
$4.12
$4. 14
v.27
y.46
s4.77
$s.06
$5.30
$5.4s
s5.72
$s.99
$6.20
$6.s8
$6.77
Index
$2.79
$2.63
$2.60
$2.63
$2.66
$2.78
$3.4s
$4.01
$4.04
$4. 19
$4.39
$4.68
y.97
$s.21
$s.38
$s.63
$s.83
$6.03
$6.39
$6.58
AECO Index
$1.94
$1.81
$1.86
$1.91
$1.94
$2.06
$2.70
$3.22
$3.26
$3.46
$3.67
$4.02
$4.30
$4.s3
$4.6s
$4.90
$5.1 1
$5.28
$s.61
$5.80
Year
2018(a)
20t9
2020
2021
2022
202i
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
TABLE 3
Term Contracts s d since the October 13 2017
No.Contract Nameplate Stafi Date
I
2
5
4
5
6
7
8
9
l0
11
t2
l3
t4
l5
t6
Soda Lake Geothermal PPA
Deschutes Valley Water District QF PPA
Ciry of Hurricane Full Requirements Purchase
Loyd Fery QF Power Purchase Agreement
City of Preston Idaho QF PPA
Roseburg Forest Products - Dillard QF PPA
Simplot Phosphates LLC Non-Firm QF PPA
Tesoro Refning and Marketing Co QF Non-Firm PPA
Three Sisters Inigation District QF PPA
Millican Solar Enerry LLC PPA
Prineville Solar Enerry LLC PPA
Milford Solar I LLC PPA
Hunter Solar LLC PPA
Sigurd Solar LLC PPA
Cove Mountain Solar LLC PPA
Tesoro Refning and Marketing Co QF Non-Firm PPA
20.0
4.3
0.34
0.07
0.40
10.0
13.0
25.0
0.20
4s.0
55.0
99.0
100.0
80.0
58.0
25.0
2019 09 0l
2021 0t 0t
2018 0l 0l
2018 07 0l
2018 03 0l
2018 07 0l
2018 07 0s
2018 03 0l
2018 l0 15
2020 t2 3t
2020 t2 3t
2020 lt 30
2020 t2 3t
2020 t2 3r
2020 ,231
2019 0l 0l
Total Simed MW 535.3
Long Term Contracts Expired or Terminated since the October 13, 2017 Filing
No.Contract (M!v)Date
I
2
J
4
5
6
7
8
9
l0
l1
t2
l3
Chewon Casper Wind QF PPA (expired)
Douglas County Settlement A gre ement (expire d)
Doughs Wells PPA (expired)
Evergreen BioPower, LLC Qualified Facility (expired)
Kennecott Refmery QF PPA 2017 (expired)
Kennecott Smeher QF PPA 2017 (expired)
Lower Valley Enerry QF PPA (expired)
Loyd Fery QF PPA (expired)
City of Preston Idaho Qualified Facility (expired)
Roseburg Forest Products - Dillard QF PPA (expired)
Tesoro Refning and Marketing Co QF Non-Firm PPA (expired)
Sprague Sohr QF PPA (terminated)
Ivory Pine QF PPA (terminated)
16.5
15.0
56.0
10.0
7.54
31.8
1.76
0.07
0.40
20.0
25.0
7.0
10.0
2018 07 3t
2018 08 3r
2018 08 3l
2017 t23t
2017 t23t
2017 t23t
2017 09 30
2018 06 30
2018 0228
2018 0228
20t8 0228
20t8 0423
2018 M 23
Total Terminated MW 201.1
6
V. COMMUNICATIONS
Communications regarding this filing should be addressed to:
Ted Weston
Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager
Rocky Mountain Power
1407 West North Temple, Suite 330
Salt Lake City, Utah 841l6
Telephone : [phone]
Emai I : ted.weston@pacifi corp.com
IdahoDockets@oacifi corp.com
DanielE. Solander
Senior Counsel
Rocky Mountain Power
1407 WestNorth Temple, Suite 320
Salt Lake City, Utah 841l6
Telephone : (80 l) 220 - 40 1 4
Email : Daniel.solander@pacifi com.com
In addition, Rocky Mountain Power requests that all data requests regarding this Application be
sent in Microsoft Word to the following:
By email (prefened): [e-mail]
By regular mail: Data Request Response Center
PacifiCorp
825 Multnomah, Suite 2000
Portland, Oregon 97232
lnformal questions may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager at (801)
220-2963.
VI. MODIFIED PROCEDURE
9. The Company believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues
presented herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure; i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq.
8
7
VII. REOUEST FOR RELIEF
WHEREFORE, Rocky Mountain Power hereby respectfully submits its updated load
forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information in compliance with the Commission's
directives in Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and requests that the Commission issue an order
approving this updated information for inclusion in the Company's IRP avoided cost calculations
with an October 15,2018 effective date.
DATED this l5th day of October,2018.
Respectful ly submitted,
ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER
I'ht^
Daniel E. Solander
1407 West North Temple, Suite 320
Salt Lake City, Utah 841l6
Telephone No. [phone]
Facsimile No. [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]
Attorneyfor Roclqt Mountain Power
8