20170802PacifiCorp 2017 IRP Volume III.pdf

Y ROCKY MOUNTAIN
HP,Iy,E^.n"*i"'r t .l
1407 North Temple, Suite 310
Salt Lake City, Utah 84116
August 2,2017
VIA OVERNIGHT DELIVERY
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington
Boise, ID 83702
Attention:Diane Hanian
Commission Secretary
RE: PAC-E-17-03 - PACIFICORP'S APPLICATION FOR ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
OF THE 2017 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAI\ _ INFORMATIONAL FILING
Dear Ms. Hanian:
PacifiCorp d/b/a Rocky Mountain Power provides the attached informational filing regarding
PacifiCorp's 2017 Integrated Resource Plan (lRP) along with supporting work papers included
on the data discs provided with this letter.
The enclosed informational filing provides an updated economic analysis and related discussion
on the wind repowering and new transmission and wind projects included inthe 2017 IRP. This
filing is provided as informational only.
Informal inquiries may be directed to Ted Weston,Idaho Regulatory Manager, at [phone]
Sincerely,
Vice President, Regulation
Enclosures
cc Jim Yost, Idaho Governor's Office (without enclosures)
Benjamin Otto, Idaho Conservation League (without enclosures)
Mark Stokes, Idaho Power Company (without enclosures)
Teri Carlock, Idaho Public Utilities Commission staff (with enclosures)
Randall Budge, (Monsanto) (without enclosures)
Nancy Kelly, Western Resource Advocates (without enclosures)
2OI7 INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PIAN
Energy Vision 2020 Update
August 2,2017 r,
t
r/
H
tu-i
I
rat
I r
\l
1:t
$
{1\
I slI
I t-
l
/\
\
\
/./68"
tI
tr I
lr
I
I
I
I
I
\
\
t
Y PacrFrCoRP
PACIFICORP-2017IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPD^TE
Tegrp or CONTENTS
SECTION 1 _IxrnooUCTION
Wnqo RspowsRmc OvpRvtsw
Npw Wmo aNo TRaNSMISSIoN Ovsnvrpw
SECTION 2 _MrruoDoLoGY
Svsreu Moosr-rNc Mpttonolocy...........
Mooots.....
P rucr-P ottcv Sc rx,q RIos
Auxn;al Rpwlus RrqunrunNr MooplrNrc Mprnooot-ocy ......... ......................1
Exroustox or Nnr Bet'toptrs Tunoucn 2050
I
1
5
5
5
6
0
AssuupnoNs
II
t2
SECTION 3 - Wrxo RrpowBRrNG..............
WrNrp RrpowpnrNc Scopp.....
Svsrsu Mooplnqc PRtcp-Poucv Rpsur.rs
MoorL DnrrneNcos
AxNuar- Rswrlup REeUTREMENT PRtcp-PoLICy Rp sulrs
SpNsruvrry Sruorss
4 0-Yo,qn Lnr, SnxstrtvlTY............
Now Wtt'to .quo Tn qNsutsstou SrNsmwry
WtN o Rrp owERrNG C tp.tc rv S zvs trIVITy .........
CoNcr-usroN ...............
Eyoncv Vtsru't 2020 Cosr,qyo PERFqRMANCE
Aronro Dr-R lre Brt tortrs...............
Lmr Loss BrNnpt?',s...............
EIM Bat'toprs
I t'trtrsr u oNr Rzc ornnv
SECTION 4 _ NTw Wno,lNo TRANSMISSION
Svsrpu MoDELTNG Pzucp-Por-tcv Rpsulrs ....
Moor,L DnrennNcr,s
AwNuar- RrwNup RrqunrveNr Pnrcp-PoLICy Rrsulrs
SsNsruvnv Sruoms
4 0-Yun Lna SrNstrtvtrY.........
Ww o Rrp owontuc S nNsrtwrv
CoNcr-usroN
..12
,, 13
..13
..13
..14
24
.26
.26
.27
.28
l5
l5
l5
t6
17
t9
19
)n
)n
PACIFICoRP _ 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPOATE
ATTACHMENTS 29
ArrecuueNr A -NourNAL HENRv Hus NaruRAl Gas PRrce Fonecasrs ($/MMuru) .......29
Arracuutptrr B - Sysreu Mooplntc Pnlce-Por-rcv DprarI- ron WnD RgpowsnrNc ..........31
ArracnvsNr C -AmlueL RsvpNur RequrnrupNr Pnrce-PoLICy Dsratl
ron Wn{o REPowERING 37
ArracuupNr D - Svsrpu MooslrNc Pntcp-Poltcv Dprar poRNpw Wnqo aNo
TRaNsurssroN ....................4t
ArrecHvrpNrE-AwNuar- RsvpNurRrqurnEueur PRIcp-PoLICy Dprarr- poRNpw WmoaNo
TRaNsvtssroN ..............
ll
PACIFICORP-20I7IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O Upoerg
SgcrIoN I- INTnODUCTION
In this informational filing, PacifiCorp presents an updated economic analysis supporting the wind
repowering, new transmission, and new wind investments (collectively, the Energy Vision 2020
projects) identified inthe 2017 IRP and the associated action plan, specifically action items I a, I b,
and2a. This updated economic analysis was developed to support a series of concurrent regulatory
filings made with the Wyoming Public Service Commission (WPSC), the Utah Public Service
Commission (UPSC), and the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) on June 30,2017. The
updated economic analysis was prepared to ensure these filings were supported using the most
currently available information and is being provided to IRP stakeholders so that all parties have
access to the same analysis as they move forward with their on-going review of PacifiCorp's 2017
IRP. In making this informational filing, PacifiCorp has not modified its 2017 IRP preferred
portfolio or action plan in any way.
Since filing its 2017 IRP on April 4, 2017 , and consistent with the 201 7 IRP action plan, PacifiCorp
filed applications for certificates of public convenience and necessity (CPCNs) with the WPSC on
June 30, 2017. These CPCN applications are required for the new wind and new transmission
investments outlined in action items 1a and2a of the 20l7IRP action plan. PacifiCorp also filed
an application with the WPSC on June 30,2017, seeking approval of its proposed ratemaking
treatment for the wind repowering project. Concurrent with these filings, PacifiCorp filed separate
applications for Energy Vision 2020 projects, seeking approval of its proposed ratemaking
treatment with the UPSC and the IPUC. There are existing rate-recovery mechanisms in Oregon
and Washington for investments in renewable resources that provide a path for cost recovery closer
in time to project completion. In California, PacifiCorp is required to file a general rate case in
2019, which may include the costs and benefits of Energy Vision 2020 investments; alternatively,
California's Post-Test Year Adjustment Mechanism may be used to recover costs after the 2019
general rate case.
Wind repowering takes advantage of technological advancements that allow greater generation
from existing wind resources. Wind repowering involves installation of new rotors with longer
blades and new nacelles with higher-capacity generators. These plant upgrades significantly
increase energy output without changing the footprint, towers, and foundations of the wind
facilities. Longer blades allow wind turbines to produce more energy over a wider range of wind
speeds. The nacelle is the housing that sits atop the tower and contains the gear box, low- and high-
speed shafts, generator, controller, and brake. The new nacelles will include sophisticated control
systems and more robust components necessary to handle gteater loads that come with longer
blades.
Together, the new rotor and nacelles are estimated to increase generation from the repowered
turbines by l3 to 35 percent, resulting in an overall average increase in generation of 19 percent
(or 2l percent if new interconnection agreements are executed).
On December 18,2015, Congress enacted changes to the federal Internal Revenue Code that
extended the full value of production tax credits (PTCs) for wind energy facilities that began
I
Wind Repowering Overview
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O Upoerg
construction in 2015 and 2016. The Internal Revenue Service (lRS) has issued guidance that
establishes "safe harbor" for taxpayers to demonstrate the year a facility will be deemed to "begin
construction," thereby setting the value of the PTC.
Repowering PacifiCorp's wind fleet now will allow the resources to requalify for PTCs, which
will expire l0 years from the originalcommercial operation date of the resource (expiration dates
range from 2016 through 2020). To maximize the PTC benefit, in December 2016, PacifiCorp
contracted with General Electric, Inc., and Vestas-American Wind Technology, Inc., for the
purchase of new wind-turbine generator equipment. These safe-harbor equipment purchases allow
the repowered facilities to qualify for 100 percent of available PTC benefits if they are
commercially operational within four calendar years----or by the end of 2020. PacifiCorp's
purchases last year were important because wind facilities that begin construction after 2016 and
come online after 2020 will receive a 20 percent decrease in the tax benefits that can be passed on
to customers each year. Thus, a delay in acquiring safe-harbor equipment would have made the
economics of repowering less attractive and deprived customers of the substantial benefits that can
be achieved if repowering is completed by the end of 2020.
To meet the 2020 deadline, PacifiCorp plans to order the necessary equipment and execute the
necessary contracts in early 2018 and complete much of the construction in2019. The renewal of
the PTC has dramatically increased the demand for materials, equipment, and labor for wind
facilities. By completing the majority of the construction in2019, PacifiCorp will mitigate the risk
of construction delays, or delays associated with the procurement of equipment, and allow
sufficient time to meet the 2020 deadline.
In addition, completing the majority of construction in 2019 will maximizethe value of the existing
PTCs, while minimizing the period between the expiration of the prior PTCs and the eligibility for
new PTCs. By achieving commercial operation in 2019 for most of the facilities (Dunlap will be
completed in 2020), PacifiCorp will also minimize the time during which the wind facilities are
ineligible for PTCs.
The customer benefits resulting from wind repowering derive in part from the fact that repowering
allows PacifiCorp's existing wind resources to requalify for PTCs-which are then passed through
to customers. Customer benefits are expected to exceed the cost of wind repowering and save
customers money. Wind repowering creates benefits by:
o Increasing energy production from wind facilities by I I to 35 percent because of longer
blades and higher-capacity generators;
o Reducing ongoing operating costs associated with aging wind turbines;o Extending the useful lives of the wind facilities by at least l0 years;
o Reducing customer costs by requalifying the wind projects for PTCs for an additional 10
years; ando Improving the ability of wind facilities to deliver cost-effective, renewable energy into the
transmission system through enhanced voltage support and power quality.
PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis of the wind repowering project demonstrates that it will
provide substantial customer benefits. As described in more detail in Sections 2 and 3 of this
informational update, PacifiCorp analyzed nine different scenarios, each with varying natural gas
2
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
and carbon dioxide lCOz) price assumptions, and all nine scenarios show customer benefits
ranging from $41 million when assuming low natural gas and zerc COz prices to $589 million
when assuming high natural gas and high COz prices. With medium natural gas price and COz
price assumptions, wind repowering results in customer benefits of $359 million.
The new wind and transmission projects in the 2017 IRP preferred portfolio are central to
PacifiCorp's current plans to use opportunities presented by the extension of the federal PTC to
make major investments that provide significant savings to customers over the lives of the
resources. The new wind and transmission projects are mutually dependent on one another. The
new wind resources rely on the new transmission for interconnection into PacifiCorp's
transmission system. In turn, the new transmission is supported by key economic attributes of the
new wind: zero-fuel-cost generation that lowers net power costs (NPC) and provides ten years of
PTCs. The new wind will also generate renewable energy credits (RECs), which can be sold in the
market and lower net customer costs or otherwise be used to meet state renewable resource
procurement targets. The new wind resources help decarbonize PacifiCorp's resource portfolio,
mitigating long-term risk associated with potential future state and federal policies targeting COz
emissions reductions from the electric sector.
The new transmission also provides significant benefits to customers. The Aeolus-to-
Bridger/Anticline transmission line is a sub-segment of PacifiCorp's Energy Gateway West
transmission project, and is an integral component of the long-term transmission plan for the
region. PacifiCorp, with stakeholder involvement, has pursued permitting of the Energy Gateway
West transmission project since 2008. The new transmission will relieve congestion on the current
transmission system in eastern Wyoming, provide voltage support to the Wyoming transmission
network, improve overall reliability of the transmission system, enhance PacifiCorp's ability to
comply with mandated reliability and performance standards, reduce line losses, and create the
potential for further increases to the transfer capability across the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline
transmission line with the construction of additional segments of the Energy Gateway project.
Timing is critical for both the new wind and transmission projects. These assets must achieve
commercial operation by the end of 2020 to qualiff for the full benefits of the PTCs and maintain
favorable economics. Thus, PacifiCorp must move quickly, particularly on the new transmission,
which will take several years to fully permit, obtain the necessary rights-of-way, and construct. To
complete construction of the new wind and transmission by December 31, 2020,PacifiCorp has
requested expedited review of its CPCN applications.
Because of the time-sensitivity of the new wind and transmission projects, PacifiCorp is
conducting its 2017R request for proposals (RFP) process simultaneously with its CPCN
applications and on-going review of these investments by parties participating in PacifiCorp's
2017 IRP process. Although unusual, this approach is necessary in this case. If PacifiCorp waited
until the conclusion of the 2017R RFP to seek CPCNs, or similarly, waited for conclusion of
review of PacifiCorp's 2017 IRP to issue its 2017R RFP, the new wind and transmission projects
could not be completed by the end of 2020, and customers would lose significant PTC benefits.
To allow the new wind and transmission projects to move forward, PacifiCorp has pursued specific
wind projects that will be benchmark resources in the 2017R RFP. These resources include three
J
Wind and Transmission Overview
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
250 MW facilities (referred to as Ekola Flats, TB Flats I, and TB Flats II) and a fourth I l0 MW
facility (McFadden Ridge II), all located in Wyoming. These proxy resources, in addition to 320
MW of qualifying facility (QF) resources enabled by the new transmission investment, are
included in the updated economic analysis of the new wind and transmission projects.
PacifiCorp will update its economic analysis to reflect the specific resources selected to the 2017R
RFP final shortlist, which the company plans to establish in early January 201 8. If other resources
are ultimately selected through the 2017R RFP, they will be equal to or better than the wind
projects assumed in PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis.
The new transmission investment includes six major elements: (l) the 140-mile, Aeolus-to-
Anticline 500 kV line, which includes construction of the new Aeolus and Anticline substations;
(2) the five-mile Anticline to Jim Bridger 345 kV line, which includes modifications at the existing
Jim Bridger substation to allow termination of the 345 kV line; (3) installation of a voltage control
device at the Latham substation; (4) a new 16-mile 230 kV transmission line parallel to an existing
230 kV line from the Shirley Basin substation to the proposed Aeolus substation, including
modifications to the existing Shirley Basin substation; (5) the reconstruction of four miles of an
existing 230 kV line between the proposed Aeolus substation and the Freezeout substation,
including modification as required at the Freezeout substation; and (6) the reconstruction of l4
miles of an existing 230 kV transmission line between the Freezeout substation and the Standpipe
substation, including modifications as required at the Freezeout and Standpipe substations.
The benefits of the transmission project fall into three broad categories. First, the new transmission
project will relieve congestion in eastern Wyoming, which will allow greater resource
interconnection in that part of the state. PacifiCorp's current transmission system in eastern
Wyoming is operating at capacity, which limits transfer of existing resources from eastem
Wyoming and precludes the ability to interconnect additional resources east of the proposed
Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline line. The new transmission will increase the transfer capability from
east to west by 750 MW. When the new transmission project is complete, they it will allow
interconnection of up to 1,270 MW of incremental wind resources.
Second, the new transmission will provide critical voltage support to the transmission system in
southeastern Wyoming. Under certain operating conditions, voltage control issues have limited the
ability to add additional resources, particularly wind resources. The addition of the new
transmission will solve the voltage control issues.
Third, the transmission projects will also increase reliability, reduce capacity and energy losses on
the transmission system, and provide greater flexibility to manage existing generation resources.
Currently, outages on the existing 230 kV system in eastem Wyoming result in deration of the
transfer capacity in the area and some outage scenarios require significant generation curtailment.
The new 500 kV transmission segment will significantly reduce, if not eliminate, many of the
impacts caused by the 230 kV outages.
PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis of the new wind and transmission projects demonstrates
that these investments will provide substantial customer benefits. As described in more detail in
Section 4 ofthis informational update, when using medium natural gas and COz price assumptions,
PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis shows a present-value reduction in revenue requirement
due to the new wind and transmission projects of $137 million.
4
SpcrroN 2 - MprHoDoLocY
In updating and refining its analytics for the Energy Vision 2020 projects, PacifiCorp relied upon
the same modelingtools usedto develop andanalyze resourceportfolios in its 2017 IRP. These
modeling tools calculate system present value revenue requirement (PVRR) by identifying least-
cost resource portfolios and dispatching system resources over a 2O-year forecast period (2017-
2036). Net customer benefits are calculated as the present-value revenue requirement differential
(PVRR(d) between two simulations of PacifiCorp's system. One simulation includes the relevant
components of the Energy Vision 2020 projects (i.e., either wind repowering or new wind and new
transmission) and the other simulation excludes these investments. Customers are expected to
realize benefits when the system PVRR with the Energy Vision 2020 projects is lower than the
system PVRR without these investments. Conversely, customers would experience increased costs
if the system PVRR with Energy Vision 2020 projects were higher than the system PVRR without
them.
Models
PacifiCorp used the System Optimizer (SO) model and the Planning and Risk model (PaR) to
develop resource portfolios and to forecast dispatch of system resources in simulations with and
without the Energy Vision 2020 projects.
The SO model is used to develop resource portfolios with sufficient capacity to achieve a target
planning-reserve margin. The SO model selects a portfolio of resources from a broad range of
resource alternatives by minimizing the system PVRR. In selecting the least-cost resource portfolio
for a given set of input assumptions, the SO model performs time-of-day, least-cost dispatch for
existing resources and prospective resource alternatives, while considering the cost-and-
performance characteristics of existing contracts and prospective demand-side-management
(DSM) resources-all within or connected to PacifiCorp's system. The system PVRR from the
SO model reflects the cost of existing contracts, wholesale-market purchases and sales, the cost of
new and existing generating resources (fuel, fixed and variable operations and maintenance, and
emissions, as applicable), the cost of new DSM resources, and levelized revenue requirement of
capital additions for existing coal resources and potential new generating resources.
PaR is used to develop a chronological unit commitment and dispatch forecast of the resource
portfolio generated by the SO model, accounting for operating reserves, volatility and uncertainty
in key system variables. PaR captures volatility and uncertainty in its unit commitment and
dispatch forecast by using Monte Carlo sampling of stochastic variables, which include load,
wholesale electricity and natural gas prices, hydro generation, and thermal unit outages. PaR uses
the same common input assumptions that are used in the SO model, with resource-portfolio data
provided by the SO model results. The PVRR from PaR reflects a distribution of system variable
costs, including variable costs associated with existing contracts, wholesale-market purchases and
sales, fuel costs, variable operations and maintenance costs, emissions costs, as applicable, and
costs associated with energy or reserve deficiencies. Fixed costs that do not change with system
dispatch, including the cost of DSM resources, fixed operations and maintenance costs, and the
5
PACIFICORP _ 20 17 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
PACIFICORP 20IT IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
levelized revenue requirement of capital additions for existing coal resources and potential new
generating resources, are based on the fixed costs from the SO model, which are combined with
the distribution of PaR variable costs to establish a distribution of system PVRR for each
simulation.
PacifiCorp uses the SO model and PaR to produce and evaluate resource portfolios in its IRP.
PacifiCorp also uses these models to analyze resource-acquisition opportunities, resource
retirements, resource capital investments, and system transmission projects. The models were used
to support the successful acquisition of the Chehalis combined-cycle plant, to support selection of
the Lake Side 2 combined-cycle resource through an RFP process, and to evaluate installation of
emissions control equipment. These models will also be used to evaluate bids in the soon-to-be-
issued 2017R RFP, which is being issued to solicit bids for new wind resources.
The SO model and PaR are the appropriate modeling tools when evaluating significant capital
investments that influence PacifiCorp's resource mix and affect least-cost dispatch of system
resources. The SO model simultaneously and endogenously evaluates capacity and energy trade-
offs associated with resource capital projects and is needed to understand how the type, timing,
and location of future resources might be affected by Energy Vision 2020 projects. PaR provides
additional granularity on how Energy Vision 2020 projects are forecasted to affect system
operations, recognizing that key system conditions are volatile and uncertain. Together, the SO
model and PaR are best suited to perform a net-benefit analysis for Energy Vision 2020 projects
that is consistent with long-standing least-cost, least-risk planning principles applied in
PacifiCorp's IRP.
Just as it evaluates resource-portfolio alternatives in the IRP, PacifiCorp uses the stochastic-mean
PVRR and risk-adjusted PVRR, calculated from PaR study results, to assess the stochastic system
cost risk of its proposed Energy Vision 2020 projects. With Monte Carlo sampling of stochastic
variables, PaR produces a distribution of system variable costs. The stochastic-mean PVRR is the
average of net variable operating costs from the distribution of system variable costs, combined
with system fixed costs from the SO model. PacifiCorp uses a risk-adjusted PVRR to evaluate
stochastic system cost risk. The risk-adjusted PVRR incorporates the expected value of low-
probability, high-cost outcomes. The risk-adjusted PVRR is calculated by adding five percent of
system variable costs, from the 95th percentile of the distribution of system variable costs, to the
stochastic-mean PVRR.
When applied to its updated economic analysis, the stochastic-mean PVRR represents the expected
level of system costs from cases with and without Energy Vision 2020 projects. The risk-adjusted
PVRR is used to assess whether Energy Vision 2020 projects cause a disproportionate increase to
system variable costs under low-probability, high-cost system conditions.
Price-Policy Scenarios
In addition to assessing stochastic system cost risk, PacifiCorp analyzed the wind repowering
project under a range of assumptions regarding wholesale market prices and COz policy (price-
policy) assumptions. These assumptions drive benefits associated with NPC, and so it is important
to understand how the net-benefit analysis is affected under a range of potential outcomes. Each
pair of model simulations-with and without the relevant components of the Energy Vision 2020
6
PACIFICoRP-20I7IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UpoArp
projects, in both the SO model and PaR-was analyzed under varying combinations of these price-
policy assumptions.
Wholesale-power prices, often set by natural gas prices, and the system cost impacts of potential
COz policies influence the forecast of net system benefits from the Energy Vision 2020 projects.
Wholesale-power prices and COz policy outcomes affect the value of system energy, the dispatch
of system resources, and PacifiCorp's resource mix. Consequently, wholesale-power prices and
COz policy assumptions affect NPC benefits, non-NPC variable cost benefits, and system fixed-
cost benefits of the Energy Vision 2020 projects. Because wholesale-power prices and COz policy
outcomes are both uncertain and important drivers to the updated economic analysis, PacifiCorp
studied the economics of the Energy Vision 2020 projects under a range of different price-policy
scenarios.
Considering that there is a high level of correlation between wholesale-power prices and natural
gas prices, the wholesale-power price scenarios were based on a range of natural gas price
assumptions. This ensures consistency between power price and natural gas price assumptions for
each scenario. PacifiCorp implemented its COzpolicy assumptions through aCOzprice, expressed
in dollars-per-ton.
Since filing the 2017 IRP, it has become increasingly unlikely that the CPP will be implemented
in its current form. However, it is possible that future COz policies targeting electric-sector
emissions could be adopted and impose incremental costs to drive emissions reductions. COz price
assumptions used in the price-policy scenarios are not intended to mimic a specific type of policy
mechanism (i.e., a tax or an allowance price under a cap-and-trade program), but are intended to
recognize that there might be future COz policies that impose a cost to reduce emissions. Table 2.1
summarizes the nine price-policy scenarios used to analyze the Energy Vision 2020 projects.
Table 2.1 - Price-Scenarios
The medium-natural-gas-price assumptions that are paired with zero COz prices reflect natural-gas
prices from PacifiCorp's official forward price curve (OFPC) dated April 26,2017. The OFPC
7
Low Gas, Zero COz $3. l9 $O/ton
Low Gas, Medium COz $3.19 $3.41lton in2025 growing to
$14.40/ton in2036
Low Gas, High COz $3.19 $4.73lton in 2025 growing to
$38.42lton in2036
Medium Gas,ZeroCOz $4.07 $0/ton
$4.1 3 $3.4llton in2025 growing to
$14.40/ton in2036Medium Gas, Medium COz
Medium Gas, High CO2 $4.1 3 $4.73/ton in 2025 growing to
$38.42lton in2036
High Gas, Zero COz $5.83 $0/ton
High Gas, Medium COz $s.83 $3.4|lton in 2025 growing to
$14.40/ton in2036
$5.83 $4.73lton in 2025 growing to
$38.42lton in2036High Gas, High COz
Price-Policv Scenario
Natural Gas Prices
(Levelized $/ll{MBtu)*COz Price Descriotion
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
uses observed forward market prices as of April 26,2017, for 72 months, followed by a l2-month
transition to natural-gas prices based on a forecast developed by an independent third party. The
low-, medium-, and high-natural-gas price assumptions used for all other scenarios were chosen
after reviewing a range of credible third-party forecasts. Attachment A to this informational filing
shows the range in natural-gas price assumptions from these third-party forecasts relative to those
adopted for the price-policy scenarios to evaluate the Energy Vision 2020 projects.
The low-natural-gas price assumption was derived from a low-price scenario developed by an
independent third party, which is based on surging growth in price-inelastic associated gas,
technology improvements, stagnant liquefied-natural-gas exports, and an ever-expanding resource
base. The medium-natural-gas price assumption, which is used beyond month 84 in the April2017
OFPC, and in all months when medium-natural-gas prices are paired with medium or low COz
price assumptions, is based on a base-case forecast from another independent third party that is
reasonably aligned with other base-case forecasts. The high-natural-gas price assumption was
based on a high-price scenario from this same forecaster. The high-price scenario is based on risk-
aversion, whereby natural-gas developers are reluctant to commit capital before demand, and the
associated price response, materializes. This gives rise to exaggerated boom-bust cycles (cyclical
periods of high prices and low prices). PacifiCorp smoothed the boom-bust cycle in the third
party's high-price scenario because the specific timing of these cycles are extremely difficult to
project with reasonable accuracy.
Figure 2.1 shows Henry Hub natural-gas price assumptions from the April 2017 OFPC, low-,
medium-, and high-natural-gas price scenarios. The April2017 OFPC forecast only differs from
the medium-natural-gas-price assumption in that it reflects observed-market forwards through the
first72 months followed by a twelve-month transition to an independent third-party's base-case
forecast.
8
2.1 -- Nominal Natural-Gas Price Scenarios
As with natural-gas prices, the medium- and high-COz price assumptions are based on independent
third-party projections assuming COz prices start in 2025. To bracket the low end of potential
policy outcomes, PacifiCorp assumes there are no future policies adopted that would require
incremental costs to achieve emissions reductions in the electric sector. In this scenario, the
assumed COz price is zero. Figure 2.2 shows the three COz price assumptions used to analyze the
Energy Vision 2020 projects.
9
se
$8
EA 57
Esoe
$s
$4
s3
$z or\ O r (\.l ci $ r.) \O F- oO or\ O H c\f co $ lf1 \O* (\ C.l Cil C\ C.l C! C.l N C\ C\t cO cO ca ca cn m c.)ooooooaaaooaaaooaoc\ cil c.l cl C\ c.l c.l cil Ol N c'l N c.i c.l o.t cil c.l c.l
>q2*
----
-l-
e
,Je.AF -P.O,{2
J-DrDa-Iaaaaa-G2oJ+.l-
a a a
,aJ
oo
N
$ll
$10
rlr Low Gas
r . .. .. Med GaS -\{sd
Gas (Aprilz0l7 OFPC)
-e- HighGas
-O
.a
-trtD{
PACIFICoRP - 20 17 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
2.2 - Nominal COz-Price Scenarios
The system PVRR from the SO model and PaR is calculated from an annual stream of forecasted
revenue requirement over a 20-year time frame, consistent with the planning period in the IRP.
The annual stream of forecasted revenue requirement captures nominal revenue requirement for
non-capital items (e.g., NPC, fixed operations and maintenance) and levelized revenue
requirement for capital expenditures. To estimate the annual revenue requirement impacts of the
Energy Vision 2020 projects, project capital costs need to be considered in nominal terms (i.e., not
levelized).
Levelization of capital revenue requirement is necessary in these models to avoid potential
distortions in the economic analysis of capital-intensive assets that have different lives and in-
service dates. Without levelization, this potential distortion is driven by how capital costs are
included in rate base over time. Capital revenue requirement is generally highest in the first year
an asset is placed in service and declines over time as the asset depreciates.
Consider the potential implications of modeling nominal capital revenue requirement for a future
generating resource needed in2036, the last year of the 2017 IRP planning period. If nominal
capital revenue requirement were assumed, the model would capture in its economic assessment
of resource altematives the highest, first-year revenue requirement capital cost without having any
foresight on the potential benefits that resource would provide beyond 2036. If nominal capital
costs were applied, the model's economic assessment of resource alternatives for the 2036 resource
need would inappropriately favor less capital-intensive projects or projects having longer asset
lives, even if those alternatives would increase system costs over their remaining life. Levelized
$4s
$40
$3s
$30
E $zsF> s20
sls
$10
$s
$0 !.{-+{-I-l-}{-{-{-l-I
OO O\ O r (\ c.) \t lr) \O a- oO O\ O - N ca $ ta) \O
- - C.l C{ Ci c..l C{ C.l C\ C\ (\ C.l cO ci cO cO ci cO cOaooooaaoooooaooooooC.l C.l (\.l N N C.l C\ N N c'l C.t C\ N c.l (-.l (\ Ol N al
a-a
Jro
t
/a
.a,fa
o.o
-i!- Zero
-Nfediurn
-e - High
.e'o2(t2
10
Annual Revenue Requirement Modeline Methodology
In the model simulations that exclude Energy Vision 2020 projects, the annual stream of costs for
wind facilities that are within the wind repowering scope, including levelized capital, are removed
from the annual stream of costs used to calculate the stochastic-mean system PVRR. Similarly, in
the simulation that includes Energy Vision 2020 projects, the annual stream of costs for repowered
wind facilities and new wind facilities, including levelized capital and PTCs, and costs associated
with the new transmission project are temporarily removed from the annual stream of costs used
to calculate the stochastic-mean PVRR. The differential in the remaining stream of annual costs,
which includes all system costs except for those associated with the Energy Vision 2020 projects,
represents the net system benefit caused by the Energy Vision 2020 projects.
These data are disaggregated to isolate the estimated annual NPC benefits, other non-NPC
variable-cost benefits (i.e., variable operations and maintenance and emissions costs for those
scenarios that include a COz price assumption), and fixed-cost benefits. To complete the annual
revenue requirement forecast, the change in fixed costs for Energy Vision 2020 projects, including
nominal capital revenue requirement and PTCs, are added back in with the annual system net
benefits caused by these investments.
Extension of Net Benefits Through 2050
The change in annual revenue requirement is estimated through 2050. This captures the full 30-
year life of the new equipment installed on repowered wind facilities and the full 3O-year life of
new wind resources that are part of the Energy Vision 2020 projects.
The PaR forecast period runs from 2017 through2036. The change in net system benefits caused
by Energy Vision 2020 projects over the 2028 through 2036 time frame, expressed in dollars-per-
MWh of incremental energy output from repowered and new wind facilities, were used to estimate
the change in system net benefits from 2037 through 2050. This calculation was performed in
several steps.
First, the net system benefits caused by Energy Vision 2020 projects were divided by the change
in incremental energy expected from repowered and new wind facilities, as modeled in PaR over
the 2028-through-2036 time frame. Next, the net system benefits per MWh of incremental energy
from the repowered and new wind projects overthe 2028-through-2036 time frame were levelized.
These levelized results were extended out through 2050 at inflation. The levelized net system
benefits per MWh of incremental energy output from the repowered and new wind projects over
the 2037-through-2050 time frame were then multiplied by the change in incremental energy
output from repowered and new wind projects over the same period.
Consistent with the 20 I 7 IRP, PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis assumes the Dave Johnston
coal plant, located in eastern Wyoming, retires at the end of 2027 . When this plant is assumed to
retire, transmission congestion affecting energy output from resources in eastern Wyoming, where
many repowered wind resources are located and all of the new wind resources are located, is
reduced. The incremental energy output from repowered and new wind resources provides more
system benefits when not constrained by transmission limitations. Consequently, the net system
ll
PACIFICoRP_2O17IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
capital costs for assets that have different lives and in-service dates is an established way to address
these types of distortions in the comparative economic analysis of resource alternatives.
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O Uponrg
benefits caused by repowered and new wind over the 2028-through-2036 time frame, after Dave
Johnston is assumed to retire, is representative of net system benefits that could be expected
beyond 2036.
Energy Vision 2020 Cost and Performance
Beyond the price-policy assumptions used to analyze a range of NPC-related benefits, the updated
economic analysis reflects updated assumptions for up-front capital costs, run-rate operating costs,
and energy output associated with Energy Vision 2020 projects. Table 2.2 summarizes updated
cost and performance assumptions for Energy Vision 2020 projects. Additional detail is included
in the confidential work papers supporting this informational filing.
Table 2.2 -U Cost and Performance for Vision 2020 ects
Consistent with action item la in the 2017 IRP action plan and as discussed further in Section 3
below, PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis includes an assessment of the scope of the wind
repowering project. Based on this assessment, the scope of the wind repowering project has been
expanded to include the 94 MW Goodnoe Hills wind facility located in Washington.
PacifiCorp also updated its assumptions for new wind resource capacity to reflect specific wind
projects, which includes 860 MW of wind resource capacity that the company will offer as
benchmark resources in the 2017R RFP and 320 MW from certain QF wind projects that are
located in the Aeolus area, have executed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with PacifiCorp,
and have preferential positions in the transmission interconnection queue. These QF projects are
reasonably expected to interconnect to PacifiCorp's transmission system after the new
transmission project is placed in service and are assumed to achieve commercial operation at the
end of 2021, consistent with the terms in their PPAs. Because these QF projects are not expected
to be able to interconnect with PacifiCorp's transmission system without the new transmission
investments, they are only included in SO model and PaR simulations that include Energy Vision
2020 projects.
Consistent with the assumptions used in the 20l7IRP, PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis
continues to assume that the up-front capital costs for the new transmission will contribute to retail-
customer rate base and that the revenue requirement for these investments will be partially offset
by incremental revenue from other transmission customers. The up-front transmission cost will
flow into PacifiCorp's formula transmission rate under its Open Access Transmission Tariff
(OATT) and generate revenue credits that offset costs for retail customers.
$3.54 billion 53.21 billionIn-Service Capital Cost
4,431GWh 4,823 GWhIn-Service Incremental Annual Energy
905 MW 999 MWExisting Wind Capacity in Repowering Scope
I,100 Mw 1,180 MwNew Wyoming Wind Capacity
750 MW 750 MWTransmission Transfer Capacity
t2
2O17IRP Undated Analvsis
PACIFICoRP-2017 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O Uponre
PacifiCorp's merchant function, which uses PacifiCorp's transmission system to serve retail-
customer load and manage retail-customer NPC through off-system market sales and purchases,
is the largest user of PacifiCorp's transmission system. However, other transmission customers
pay OATT-based transmission rates that generate revenue credits and offset the cost of
PacifiCorp's transmission revenue requirement. The new transmission investment is considered a
network transmission asset under PacifiCorp's OATT and therefore will be given rolled-in
treatment under the company's transmission formula rate. Over recent history, these revenue
credits have accounted for approximately 12 percent of PacifiCorp's transmission revenue
requirement. Based on this recent history, PacifiCorp's analysis continues to assume its retail
customers pay 88 percent of the revenue requirement from the up-front capital cost of the new
transmission investment after accounting for an assumed 12 percent revenue credit from other
transmission customers.
Avoided De-Rate Benefits
In its final 2017 IRP resource-portfolio screening process, PacifiCorp identified and quantified
reliability benefits associated with the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission project. This new
transmission project would eliminate de-rates caused by outages on 230-kV transmission system
elements. Historical outages on this part of PacifiCorp's transmission system indicate an average
de-rate of 146 MW over approximately 88 outage days per year, which equates to approximately
one 146-MW,24-hour outage every four days. Without knowing when these events might occur,
de-rates on the existing 230-kV transmission system were captured in the SO model and PaR as a
36.5 MW reduction in the transfer capability from eastem Wyoming to the Aeolus area. In
simulations that include the new wind and transmission, this de-rate assumption was eliminated
when the new transmission project is assumed to be placed in service at the end of October 2020.
Line Loss Benefits
Line-loss benefits are only applicable if the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission project is
built and therefore were only considered in the simulations that include the new wind and
transmission. In these simulations, when the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission project is
added in parallel to the existing transmission lines, resistance is reduced, which lowers line losses.
With reduced line losses, an incremental I I .6 average MW (aMW) of energy, which equates to
approximately 102 GWh, will be able to flow out of eastern Wyoming each year. The line-loss
benefit was reflected in the SO model and PaR by reducing northeast Wyoming load by
approximately I 1.6 aMW each year.
EIM Benefits
In its final 2017 IRP resource-portfolio screening process, PacifiCorp described how the Energy
Imbalance Market (EIM) can provide potential benefits when incremental energy is added to
transmission-constrained areas of Wyoming. Unscheduled or unused transmission from
participating EIM entities enables more efficient power flows within the hour. With increasing
participation in the EIM, there will be increasing opportunities to move incremental energy from
Wyoming to offset higher-priced generation in the PacifiCorp system or other EIM participants'
l3
PACIFIC0RP-2017IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O Upoerp
systems. The more efficient use of transmission that is expected with growing participation in the
EIM was captured in the updated economic analysis by increasing the transfer capability between
the east and west sides of PacifiCorp's system by 300 MW (from the Jim Bridger plant to south-
central Oregon). The ability to more efficiently use intra-hour transmission from a growing list of
EIM participants is not driven by the Energy Vision 2020 projects; however, this increased
connectivity provides the opportunity to move low-cost incremental energy out of transmission-
constrained areas of Wyoming.
Investment Recovery
As was assumed in the 2017 IRP, the updated economic analysis continues to assume that
PacifiCorp will fully recover the unrecovered investment in the original equipment on existing
wind resources and earn its authorized rate of return on the unrecovered balance over the remainder
of the original 3O-year depreciable life of each repowered wind facility. PacifiCorp does not
assume any salvage value for the equipment that will be replaced with repowering; however, any
salvage value for the existing equipment would decrease the unrecovered investment and increase
customer benefits.
t4
PACIFICoRP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
SgcuoN 3 - WINp RePOwERING
To assess the scope of the wind repowering project, PacifiCorp completed a series of SO model
and PaR studies to determine how the system PVRR changes when a specific wind facility is added
or removed from the scope of the wind repowering project. Starting with the wind repowering
scope assumed in the 2017 IRP preferred portfolio, covering 905 MW of existing wind resource
capacity, PacifiCorp first removed the Leaning Juniper facility from the wind repowering scope
because it has the lowest expected annual average capacity factor among the owned wind facilities
in PacifiCorp's wind fleet. A wind facility's capacity factor is a strong indicator of whether
repowering is cost-effective because it is representative of energy output and is therefore tied to
the amount of PTCs that will be generated if the facility is repowered. The risk-adjusted system
PVRR from the case eliminating Leaning Juniper from the wind repowering project scope was $7
million higher than the risk-adjusted system PVRR from the case including Leaning Juniper in the
project scope. Based on these results, Leaning Juniper remains within the scope of the wind
repowering project considered in PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis.
Because repowering of the Leaning Juniper facility, which has the lowest expected annual capacity
factor relative to other wind facilities in PacifiCorp's fleet, provides incremental net benefits, all
remaining wind facilities within the project scope would generate more PTCs and provide even
larger incremental net benefits if repowered. Consequently, PacifiCorp did not analyze any further
reductions to the wind repowering scope beyond its analysis of Leaning Juniper.
PacifiCorp next evaluated how expanding the wind repowering scope to include Goodnoe Hills
would affect the system PVRR. The risk-adjusted system PVRR from the case including Goodnoe
Hills in the project scope was $20 million lower than the system PVRR from the case without
Goodnoe Hills. Based on these results, Goodnoe Hills was added to the repowering project scope
considered in PacifiCorp's updated economic analysis. With Goodnoe Hills included in the scope
of the repowering project, the updated economic analysis covers 999.1 MW of existing wind
capacity-594 MW of this capacity is located in Wyoming (Glenrock I and III, Rolling Hills,
Seven Mile Hill I and II, High Plains, McFadden Ridge, and Dunlap), 100.5 MW is located in
Oregon (Leaning Juniper), and 304.6 MW is located in Washington (Marengo I and II, and
Goodnoe Hills).
Table 3.1 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for each price-policy scenario. The PVRR(d) between
cases with and without wind repowering are shown from the SO model and from PaR, which was
used to calculate both the stochastic-mean PVRR(d) and the risk-adjusted PVRR(d). The data that
was used to calculate the PVRR(d) results shown in the table are provided as Auachment B.
l5
Wind
System Modeling Price-Policv Results
PACIFICoRP-20I7IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O Upo xp
Table 3.1- SO Model and PaR of Wind million
Over a 2}-year period, before accounting for the increase in incremental energy output beyond
2036, the wind repowering project reduces customer costs in seven out of nine price-policy
scenarios. This trend occurs in the PVRR(d) calculated from both the SO model and PaR. The only
price-policy scenarios without net customer benefits are those assuming the lowest natural gas
prices when paired with either medium or zero COzprice assumptions. The PVRR(d) results show
customer benefits under the price-policy scenario with low natural gas prices and high CO2 prices,
in all three of the medium-natural-gas-price scenarios, and in all three of the high-natural-gas-price
scenarios. Under the central price-policy scenario, assuming medium-natural-gas prices and
medium CO2 prices, the PVRR(d) benefits range between $13 million, when based upon PaR-
stochastic-mean results, and$.22 million, when based upon SO model results.
The PVRR(d) results show that the benefits of the wind repowering project increase with natural
gas prices and COz prices. PVRR(d) results for scenarios where medium COz prices are assumed
with medium or high natural gas prices show a slight drop in benefits relative the zero-COz-price
scenarios. This tends to be driven by changes to the timing of new resources in the outer years of
the 20-year forecast period and would not likely persist if longer simulation periods were feasible.
The PVRR(d) results presented in Table 3.1 do not reflect the potential value of RECs generated
by the incremental wind energy output from the repowered facilities. Customer benefits for all
price-policy scenarios would improve by approximately $4 million for every dollar assigned to the
incremental RECs that will be generated from the repowered wind facilities through 2036.
Model Differences
The two models assess the system impacts of the wind repowering project in different ways. The
SO model is designed to dynamically assess system dispatch, with less granularity than PaR, while
optimizing the selection of resources to the portfolio over time. PaR is able to dynamically assess
system dispatch with more granularity than the SO model and with consideration of stochastic risk
variables; however, PaR does not modify the type, timing, size and location of resources in the
portfolio in response to its more detailed assessment of system dispatch. In evaluating differences
in annual system costs between the two models, PaR's ability to better simulate system dispatch
relative to the SO model results in lower benefits from repowering being reported from PaR in the
earlier years of the forecast horizon. Because PaR cannot modify resource selections in response
to its assessment of system dispatch, this effect is softened over the longer term, when changes to
the resource portfolio in response to wind repowering are more notable.
t6
$33Low Gas, Zero COz $43 $44
$0Low Gas, Medium COz $e $8
Low Gas, High COz ($18)($tz;($te;
Medium Gas,ZeroCOz ($33)($z+1 ($2s)
Medium Gas, Medium COz ($221 ($t:;($ts;
Medium Gas, High COz ($+t1 ($3s1 ($:o;
High Gas, Zero COz ($75)($+o;($43)
High Gas, Medium COz ($o+;($:+;($37)
High Gas, Hieh COz ($ 1 03)$80)($ts;
Price-Policy Scenario SO Model PVRR(d)PaR Stochastic-Mean
PVRR(d)
PaR Risk-^Adjusted
PVRR(d)
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O Upoerr
Note that SO and PaR, while different, are both useful in establishing a range of wind repowering
benefits through the 20-year forecast period. Importantly, the PVRR(d) results from both models
show customer benefits across the same set of price-policy scenarios with consistent trends in the
difference in PVRR(d) results between price-policy scenarios. The consistency in the trend of
forecasted benefits between the two models, each having its own strengths, shows that the wind
repowering benefits are robust across a range of price-policy assumptions and when analyzed using
different model ing tools.
The risk-adjusted PVRR(d) results are very similar to the stochastic-mean PVRR(d) results. This
indicates that the wind repowering project does not materially affect high-cost, low-probability
outcomes that can occur due to volatility in stochastic variables like load, wholesale-market prices,
hydro generation, and thermal-unit outages.
Table 3.2 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for each price-policy scenario calculated off of the
change in annual nominal revenue requirement through 2050. The annual data over the period
2017 through 2050 that was used to calculate the PVRR(d) results shown in the table are provided
as Attachment C.
Table 3.2 - Nominal Revenue Requirement PVRR(d) (Benefit)/Cost of Wind Repowering ($
When calculated through 2050, which covers the remaining life of the repowered facilities, the
wind repowering project reduces customer costs in all nine price-policy scenarios, with PVRR(d)
benefits ranging from $41 million in the low- natural-gas-and-zero-CO2 scenario to $589 million
in the high-natural-gas-and-high-COz scenario. Under the central price-policy scenario, assuming
medium natural gas prices and medium COz prices, the PVRR(d) benefits are $359 million.
The PVRR(d) calculated from estimated annual revenue requirement through 2050 picks up the
sizable increase in incremental wind energy output beyond the 20-year forecast period analyzed
with the SO model and PaR. As mentioned previously, the change in wind energy output between
cases with and without wind repowering experiences a step change beyond this 20-year period,
when the existing wind facilities would otherwise have hit the end of their depreciable life. Beyond
the 2O-year forecast period, the change in wind energy output between cases with and without
repowering reflects the full energy output from the repowered wind facilities.
t7
Low Gas. Zero COz ($+t)
Low Gas. Medium COz ($245)
($344)Low Gas, High CO:
Medium Gas, Zero COz ($362)
Medium Gas, Medium COz ($35e)
($40 l )Medium Gas, High COz
($400)High Gas, Zero COz
($274)High Gas, Medium COz
($589)High Gas, High COz
An n ual Revenue Req uirement Price-Policy Results
Price-Policv Scenario Annual Revenue Reouirement PVRR(d)
PACIFICORP-20I7IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
Figure 3.1 shows the incremental change in wind energy output resulting from the repowering
project. Incremental energy output associated with wind repowering progressively increases over
the 2036-through-2040 period, as wind facilities originally placed in service in the 2006-through-
2010 time frame would have otherwise hit the end of their lives. Before 2036, and once all of the
wind resources within the project scope are repowered, the average annual incremental increase in
wind energy output is approximately 551 GWh. Beyond 2040, and before the new equipment hits
the end of its depreciable life, the average annual incremental increase in wind-energy output is
approximat ely 3,283 GWh.
3.1- C in Incremental Wind Due to Wind wh
As in the case with the PVRR(d) results calculated from the SO model and PaR results through
2036, the PVRR(d) results presented in Table 3.2 do not reflect the potential value of RECs
produced by the repowered facilities. Customer benefits for all price-policy scenarios would
improve by approximately $11 million for every dollar assigned to the incremental RECs that will
be generated from the wind repowering project through 2050.
Figure 3.2 shows the estimated change in nominal revenue requirement due to wind repowering
for the medium-natural-gas-and-medium-COz price-policy scenario on a total-system basis. The
change in nominal revenue requirement shown in the figure reflects project costs, including capital
revenue requirement (i.e., depreciation, retunl, income taxes, and property taxes), operations and
maintenance expenses, the Wyoming wind-production tax, and PTCs. The project costs are netted
against system impacts of wind repowering, reflecting the change in NPC, emissions, non-NPC
variable costs, and system fixed costs that are affected by, but not directly associated with, the
wind repowering project.
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
B r.soo
1,000
500
0
(s00)
.I ill
F- oO O\ O - N co $ trl \O f- 0o O\ O - N co t r) \O t-- oo O\ O - N co $ (r) \O F- oO O\ ON Oi N C.l N N c..l C.l e.l N .O.O.O ci .O.i.A ci .O ci + + + + * + .+ !+.+ t r)OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOc.lNc.tNNa.lc.lNc.lc{c.l(\.lNNNNNa'lc.lc-lc.lcn(\a.l(\NNc{Neic.l(\N(\
llllllllllllllllI rl
l8
PACIFICoRP - 20 17 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
Figure 3.2 - Total-System Annual Revenue Requirement with Wind Repowering ($
million
Before repowering, the reduction in wind energy output due to component failures on the existing
wind resource equipment is assumed to reduce wind energy output for specific wind turbines until
the time new equipment is installed. This contributes to a slight increase in revenue requirement
in2017 and 2018 ($2 million to $4 million, total system). All but the Dunlap facility, which is
repowered toward the end of 2020, are repowered in 2019. Over the 2019-to-2020 time frame,
project costs reflecting partial-year capital revenue requirement net of PTCs and system cost
impacts cause slight changes to revenue requirement.
The wind repowering project reduces revenue requirement soon after the new equipment is placed
in service in the 2019-to-2020 time frame. From 2021 through 2028, annual revenue requirement
is reduced as PTC benefits increase with inflation and the new equipment continues to depreciate.
On a total-system basis, annual revenue requirement is reduced by $19 million in202l. The
reduction in annual revenue requirement increases to $l l5 million by 2028. Revenue requirement
increases once the PTCs expire toward the end of 2030. Annual revenue requirement is reduced
over the 2037-through-2050 time frame when, as discussed previously, the incremental wind
energy output associated with wind repowering increases substantially.
40-Year Life Sensitivity
The 40-year life sensitivity quantifies how the net benefits of wind repowering are affected by the
depreciable life of repowered facilities. PacifiCorp's base analysis assumes that repowering will
reset the 30-year depreciable life of the asset. Assuming the possibility that wind facilities with
modern equipment might continue operating over a longer period, this sensitivity quantifies the
economic impact if the depreciable life of new equipment on a repowered facility were reset at 40
years.
19
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
($zo1
($+01
($oo;
($to;
($loo)
($l20)
($140)f- oo O\ O - e{ m + n \O F-- oo (}\ o - c-l 6 + h \o f- oo o\ o i a.l 6.+ r) \o f- oo o\ o
9UU9999996t ct a.l a..l a.l a.l c.l C.l a.l a.l C{ e{ al C.l C.l a.l a,l o.l ol 6l a{ c.l 61 6l c.l cl a.l cl c.l at c.l a.l c! a.l
o
Y4
Sensitivity Studies
524lsn\-
(9t1
(se)
Sl
{
E5
,,t
I'''',
PACIFICORP - 20I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O Upoarg
Table 3.3 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for the sensitivity assuming a 40-year life for new
equipment. To assess the relative impact of the 40-year life, the PVRR(d) results were calculated
through 2036 based on SO model and PaR results and are presented alongside the benchmark study
in which wind repowering was evaluated with a 3O-year life. Medium-natural-gas and medium-
COz price-policy assumptions were applied to this sensitivity.
Table 3.3 - 40-Year-Life million
If the new equipment were depreciated over a 4}-year life, reduced book depreciation would drive
lower annual revenue requirement. In this sensitivity, PVRR(d) benefits increase by approximately
$37 million relative to the benchmark case assuming a 30-year life for the new equipment.
New Wind and Transmission Sensitivity
The new-wind-and-transmission sensitivity quantifies how the net benefits of wind repowering are
affected when combined with 1,180 MW of new Wyoming wind resources (860 MW of owned
resources and 320 MW of contracted resources) and the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission
project. Consistent with PacifiCorp's CPCN applications for the new wind and transmission assets,
this sensitivity assumes the new wind and transmission is operational by the end of October 2020.
Table 3.4 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for the sensitivity assuming wind repowering is
implemented along with 1,180 MW of new Wyoming wind and the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline
transmission project. To assess the relative impact of the new wind and transmission, the PVRR(d)
results were calculated through 2036 based on SO model and PaR results and are presented
alongside the benchmark study in which wind repowering was evaluated as a stand-alone project.
Medium-natural-gas and medium-COz price-policy assumptions were applied to this sensitivity.
Table 3.4 - New Wind and Transmission million
When the wind repowering project is combined with 1,180 MW of new Wyoming wind and the
Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission project, PVRR(d) benefits increase by between $91
million to $l0l million relative to the benchmark case. This sensitivity shows that wind
repowering benefits persist when combined with new wind and new transmission, and that the new
wind and new transmission will provide significant incremental benefits for customers.
Wind Repowering Capacity Sensitivity
The wind repowering capacity sensitivity builds on the new-wind-and-transmission sensitivity
case by assessing how the net benefits of wind repowering are affected if the repowered facilities
are able to operate at their full generating capability. This sensitivity assumes the additional
SO Model ($60)($22)($38)
($so)($13)PaR Stochastic-Mean ($37)
($52)PaR Risk-Adjusted ($1s)($:z;
($l l4)SO Model ($22)($et I
($l04)PaR Stochastic-Mean ($ l3)($lo;
($l l6)PaR Risk-Adiusted ($15)($totl
20
Model Sensitivitv PVRR(d)Benchmark PVRR(d)Chanse in PVRR(d)
Model Sensitivitv PVRR(d)Benchmark PVRR(d)Chanse in PVRR(d)
Table 3.5 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for this sensitivity that assumes repowered wind
facilities can operate at their full capacity. The increased energy and capacity assumed in this
sensitivity is in addition to the new wind and transmission assumed in the prior sensitivity. To
assess the relative impact of this assumption on revenue requirement, the PVRR(d) results were
calculated through 2036 based on SO model and PaR results and are presented alongside the
benchmark study assuming repowered wind resources operate within existing LGIA limits.
Medium-natural-gas and medium-COz price-policy assumptions were applied to this sensitivity.
Table 3.5 - Increased Wind million
SO Model I ($1 l4)$4
PaR Stochastic-Mean ($ I 06)($l04)($z)
PaR Risk-Adiusted ($l l8)($l l6)($2)
If PacifiCorp is able to modify its LGIAs, the repowered wind facilities will be able to produce
additional energy in those hours where wind energy output would otherwise have been curtailed
to stay within current LGIA limits. If these LGIAs are modified, this study suggests there may be
additional upside to customer benefits, but they are not likely to be substantial.
PacifiCorp's analysis supports repowering approximately 999 MW of existing wind resource
capacity located in Wyoming, Oregon, and Washington. The repowered wind facilities will qualify
for an additional ten years of federal PTCs, produce more energy, reset the 30-year depreciable
life of the assets, and reduce run-rate operating costs. The economic analysis of the wind
repowering opportunity demonstrates that net benefits, which include federal PTC benefits, NPC
benefits, other system variable-cost benefits, and system fixed-cost benefits, more than outweigh
net project costs.
2t
PACIFICoRP- 2OI7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
capacity and energy is combined with the new wind and new transmission included in the prior
sensitivity. PacifiCorp's base analysis assumes that the repowered wind facilities continue to
operate within the limits of their existing large-generator interconnection agreements (LGIAs).
The average incremental energy output is expected to increase by approximately 19.2 percent if
the repowered facilities operate within their existing LGIA limits. If these limits are modified, the
average incremental energy output rises to 20.8 percent. PacifiCorp is studying whether these
LGIAs can be modified to increase incremental energy output from the repowered facilities, which
would increase the net benefits of repowering.
Conclusion
ln
PACIFICORP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
22
PACIFICoRP - 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
SgcrToN 4 _Ngw Wntp AND TnaNSMISSIoN
Table 4.1 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for each price-policy scenario. The PVRR(d) between
cases with and without the new wind and transmission projects are shown from the SO model and
from PaR, which was used to calculate both the stochastic-mean PVRR(d) and the risk-adjusted
PVRR(d). The data that was used to calculate the PVRR(d) results shown in the table are provided
as Attachment D.
Table 4.1 - SO Model and PaR PVRR(d) (Benefit/Cost of New Wind and Transmission ($
million
Over a 2}-year period, the new wind and transmission projects reduce customer costs in seven out
of nine price-policy scenarios price-policy scenarios. This trend occurs in the PVRR(d) calculated
from both the SO model and PaR. The only price-policy scenarios without net customer benefits
are those assuming the lowest natural-gas prices when paired with either medium or zero-COz
price assumptions. Under the central price-policy scenario, assuming medium-natural-gas prices
and medium-COz prices, the PVRR(d) benefits range between $85 million, when based upon SO
model results, and $124 million, when based upon PaR-risk-adjusted results. The PVRR(d) results
show that the benefits of the Combined Projects increase with natural-gas prices and COz prices,
which increase NPC and other system variable cost benefits.
The PVRR(d) results presented in Table 4.1 do not reflect the potential value of RECs generated
by the incremental energy output from the new Wyoming wind resources. Customer benefits for
all price-policy scenarios would improve by approximately $26 million for every dollar assigned
to the incremental RECs that will be generated from the new wind resources through 2036. Beyond
potential REC-revenue benefits, the economic analysis of the new wind and transmission does not
reflect PacifiCorp's enhanced ability to comply with mandated reliability and performance
standards and the opportunity for further increases to the transfer capability across the Aeolus-to-
Bridger/Anticline Line with the construction of additional segments of the Energy Gateway
Project.
$ l2l $77Low Gas, Zero COz $74
$73Low Gas, Medium COz $32 $26
($84)($ l 33)Low Gas, High COz ($147)
($le)($57)Medium Gas, Zero COz ($oo;
($85)Medium Gas, Medium COz ($l I l)($lz+;
($ l s6)Medium Gas, High COz (9224)($2+21
($304)($260)High Gas, Zero COz ($zao;
($3 I 8)($272\($293)High Gas, Medium COz
($3e6)($40e)($437)High Gas, High COz
23
Results
Price-Policy Scenario SO Model PVRR(d)PaR Stochastic-Mean
PVRR(d)
PaR Risk-Adjusted
PVRR(d)
PACIFICORP-2017IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
Model Differences
As is the case in the wind repowering economic analysis, the two models assess the system impacts
of the new wind and transmission in different ways. The SO model is designed to dynamically
assess system dispatch, with less granularity than PaR, while optimizing the selection of resources
to the portfolio over time. PaR is able to dynamically assess system dispatch, with more granularity
than the SO model and with consideration of stochastic risk variables; however, PaR does not
modify the type, timing, size and location of resources in the portfolio in response to its more
detailed assessment of system dispatch.
The two models are simply different, and both are useful in establishing a range of benefits from
the new wind and transmission through the 2O-year forecast period. Importantly, the PVRR(d)
results from both models show customer benefits across all price-policy scenarios with consistent
trends in the difference in PVRR(d) results between price-policy scenarios. The consistency in the
trend of forecasted benefits between the two models, each having its own strengths, shows that the
benefits from the new wind and transmission are robust across a range of price-policy assumptions
and when analyzed using different modeling tools.
The risk-adjusted PVRR(d) results consistently show a slight increase in the benefits of the new
wind and transmission when compared to the stochastic-mean PVRR(d) results. This indicates that
the investments reduce the risk of high-cost, low-probability outcomes that can occur due to
volatility in stochastic variables like load, wholesale-market prices, hydro generation, and thermal-
unit outages.
Table 4.2 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for each price-policy scenario calculated off of the
change in annual nominal revenue requirement through 2050. The annual data over the period
2017 through 2050 that was used to calculate the PVRR(d) results shown in the table are provided
as Attachment E.
Table 4.2 - Nominal Revenue Requirement PVRR(d) (Benefit)/Cost of the New Wind and
Transmission million
When calculated through 2050, which covers the 30-year life of the new wind resources, the new
wind and transmission reduce customer costs in seven out of nine price-policy scenarios. The only
price-policy scenarios without net customer benefits are those assuming the lowest natural-gas
prices when paired with either medium or zero-COzprice assumptions. The PVRR(d) results show
Low Gas, Zero COz $174
Low Gas, Medium COz $93
Low Gas, Hieh COz ($le4)
Medium Gas, Zero COz ($53)
Medium Gas, Medium COz ($ I 37)
Medium Gas, High COz ($3 I 7)
High Gas, Zero COz ($341)
High Gas, Medium COz ($3s I )
High Gas, High COz ($se5)
24
Annual Revenue Requirement Price-Policy Results
Price-Policv Scenario Annual Revenue Requirement PVRR(d)
PACIFICoRP - 20 17 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UPDATE
customer benefits under the price-policy scenario with low natural-gas prices and high-CO2 prices,
in all three of the medium-natural-gas price scenarios, and in all three of the high-natural-gas price
scenarios. Under the central price-policy scenario, assuming medium-natural-gas prices and
medium-COz prices, the PVRR(d) benefit is $137 million. Consistent with the PVRR(d) results
calculated from the SO model and PaR through 2036, the PVRR(d) results show that the benefits
of the new wind and transmission increase with natural-gas prices and COz prices, which increase
NPC and other system variable cost benefits.
The PVRR(d) calculated from estimated annual revenue requirement through 2050 reflects
reduced incremental wind energy output beginning in 2042 after the PPAs for the 320 MW of QF
resources end. Incremental energy output associated from the new wind resources is steady over
the 2022-through-2041 period. Beyond 2047, energy output is approximately drops by nearly 27
percent once the QF PPAs terminate. This reduction in incremental wind energy output reduces
NPC benefits and other system variable costs benefits over the last nine years of the PVRR(d)
calculated off the change in nominal revenue requirement estimates through 2050. Consequently,
the PVRR(d) calculated off the change in nominal revenue requirement through 2050 does not
capture likely benefits associated with a potential extension of the QF Projects' PPAs or
incremental procurement of additional Wyoming wind resources after the term of these PPAs end.
As in the case with the PVRR(d) results calculated from the SO model and PaR results through
2036, the PVRR(d) results presented in Table 4.2 do not reflect the potential value of RECs
produced by the new wind resources. Customer benefits for all price-policy scenarios would
improve by approximately $34 million for every dollar assigned to the incremental RECs that will
be generated from these resources through 2050.
Figure 4.1 shows the estimated change in annual nominal-revenue requirement due to the new
wind and transmission for the medium-natural-gas and medium-COz-price-policy scenario on a
total-system basis. The annual revenue requirement shown in the figure reflects all costs for these
investments, including capital revenue requirement (i.e., depreciation, return, income taxes, and
property taxes) net of transmission revenue credits, operations and maintenance expenses, the
Wyoming wind-production tax, incremental wind integration costs, and PTCs. The project costs
are netted against system impacts of the new wind and transmission, reflecting the change in NPC,
emissions, non-NPC variable costs, and system fixed costs that are affected by, but not directly
associated with, these investments.
25
$60
$40
$20
$0
€ ($20)
E (slo)O
($60)
($80)
($loo)
($l2o)Fa(.>c-c.lr.tnar-xc.l c.l c.l N c.l c.l e{ cl e{
c{ c'r e{ c{ or c{ or or N c.l ol e.l
€t-€OO-c.lmtn€F0a3333838388388or Cl ol Cl ol cl cl cl a.l cl cr cl cr
co
cl c.lN cl c.t
Cr (f - e.lC{rrrr6oooocl c.l al cl
PACIFICoRP-2017IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O UpnnrE
Figure 4.1 - Total-System Change in Annual Revenue Requirement Due to the New Wind
and Transmission million
In the initial year that the new wind and transmission assets come online, net system benefits offset
partial-year capital revenue requirement.ln202l, the first full year the new wind and transmission
are in service, the change in total-system nominal revenue requirement increases by $51 million.
This figure rapidly declines and crosses over from a net increase in nominal revenue requirement
to a decrease in nominal revenue requirement beginning 2024-just four years after the first full
year of operation. The net revenue requirement benefits persist and grow through 2030 as PTC
benefits increase with inflation and the new equipment continues to depreciate. On a total-system
basis, the change in annual revenue requirement is down by $109 million in 2030-the last year
the new wind resources produce PTCs. After the PTCs expire, annual revenue requirement
increases. However, as the assets continue to depreciate, the new wind and transmission once again
begin producing annual revenue requirement savings beginning 2036. These annual benefits
persist through 2050.
4O-Year Life Sensitivity
The 4O-year life sensitivity quantifies how the net benefits of the new wind and transmission are
affected by the depreciable life assumed for the new wind resources. PacifiCorp's base analysis
assumes a 3O-year depreciable life when calculating revenue requirement associated with the 860
MW of proxy benchmark wind resources included in the analysis. Considering that wind facilities
with modern equipment might continue operating over a longer period, this sensitivity quantifies
the economic impact if the depreciable life of these assets were reset at 40 years.
Table 4.3 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for the sensitivity assuming a 40-year life for the 860
MW of proxy benchmark wind resources. To assess the relative impact of the 40-year life, the
PVRR(d) results were calculated through 2036 based on SO model and PaR results and are
presented alongside the benchmark study in which the new wind and transmission were evaluated
26
51'r'iS
It"
so s2to
Studies
PACIFICoRP _ 20 I7 IRP ENERGY VISION 2O2O Upoarr
assuming a 30-year life for these new wind facilities. Medium-natural-gas and medium-COz price-
policy assumptions were applied to this sensitivity.
Table 4.3 - 40-Year-Life million
If the 860 MW of new wind assets are depreciated over a 40-year life, reduced book depreciation
would drive lower annual revenue requirement. In this sensitivity, PVRR(d) benefits increase by
approximately $21 million relative to the benchmark case.
Wind Repowering Sensitivity
The wind repowering sensitivity quantifies how the net benefits of the new wind and transmission
are affected when paired with the wind repowering project. Consistent with PacifiCorp's wind
repowering analysis, this sensitivity assumes approximately 999 MW of existing wind resource
capacity is upgraded with modern equipment in the 2019-to-2020 time frame.
Table 4.4 summarizes the PVRR(d) results for the sensitivity assuming the new wind and
transmission are implemented along with wind repowering of approximately 999 MW of existing
wind capacity. To assess the relative impact of wind repowering on the new wind and transmission,
the PVRR(d) results were calculated through 2036 based on SO model and PaR results and are
presented alongside the benchmark study in which the new wind and transmission were evaluated
without repowering. Medium-natural-gas and medium-COzprice-policy assumptions were applied
to this sensitivity.
Table 4.4 - Wind million
When the new wind and transmission are analyzed with the wind repowering project, PVRR(d)
benefits increase by $29 million when assessed with the SO model. PaR shows a slight $8 million
increase to the PVRR(d) relative to the benchmark.
The sensitivity does not capture any of the incremental benefits from the wind repowering project
that will occur just beyond the 2036 period, which is the last year simulated in the SO model and
PaR. Consequently, the PVRR(d) results from the SO model and PaR do not capture the significant
increase in the benefits from repowering that is associated with increased incremental energy
output that will occur beyond2036.
As described in Section 3 of this informational update, the change in wind energy output between
cases with and without repowering experiences a step change in the 2036-through-2040 time
frame, when the wind facilities within the repowering project scope that were originally placed in-
service during the 2006+hrough-2010 time frame would otherwise have hit the end of their
27
SO Model ($ I 06)($85)($21)
PaR Stochastic-Mean ($ t:z;($lll)($21)
PaR Risk-Adlusted ($145)($124)($21)
SO Model ($l t+;($85)($2e)
PaR Stochastic-Mean ($l04)($l I l)$8
PaR Risk-Adiusted ($l l6)($124)$8
Sensitivitv PVRR(d)Model Benchmark PVRR(d)Chanse in PVRR(d)
Sensitivitv PVRR(d)Model Benchmark PVRR(d)Chanse in PVRR(d)
PACIFICORP_20I7IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UPDATE
depreciable life. Before the 2036-through-2040 time frame, the period captured in the PVRR(d)
results summarized in Table 4.4,the change in wind energy output from repowering reflects the
incremental energy production that results from installing modern equipment on repowered wind
assets. Beyond the 2036-through-2040 time frame, a period that is not captured in the PVRR(d)
results reported in Table 4.4,the change in wind energy output between a case with and without
repowering reflects the full energy output from the repowered wind facilities that would otherwise
be retired (see Figure 3.1 in Section 3).
PacifiCorp's analysis supports proceeding with its planned investments in the new wind and
transmission included inthe 2017 IRP preferred portfolio.
The new wind resources, which are enabled by the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission line
will: (l) qualify for ten years of federal PTCs; (2) produce zero-fuel-cost energy that will lower
NPC; (3) generate RECs, which can be sold in the market to create additional revenues that would
lower net customer costs or otherwise be applied to meeting state renewable procurement targets;
and (4) help to decarbonize PacifiCorp's resource portfolio, which mitigates long-term risk
associated with potential future state and federal policies targeting COz emissions reductions from
the electric sector.
The Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline transmission line will: (1) relieve congestion on the current
transmission system in eastern Wyoming; (2) enable the additional wind resource
interconnections; (3) provide critical voltage support to the Wyoming transmission network; (4)
improve overall reliability of the transmission system and enhance PacifiCorp's ability to comply
with mandated reliability and performance standards; (5) reduce line losses; and (6), create an
opportunity for further increases to the transfer capability across the Aeolus-to-Bridger/Anticline
line with the construction of additional segments of the Energy Gateway project.
The updated economic analysis of the new wind and transmission in the 2017 IRP preferred
portfolio demonstrates that net benefits more than outweigh net project costs.
28
Conclusion
ATTacHMENT A - Notr,ttNar HpNnv Hus NATURAL
Gas Prucp FonpcAsrs ($/MMBru)
PACIFICORP 2017IRP ENERGY VISIoN 2O2O UpoarE
Year
Apt 26. 2Ol7
oI"c
A&prcd
Medim
(Vendor 2
B.s)
Adopted High
(Ven&r2
Hi$ -
Ad6cO
AdoptedLow
(Ver&r I
Los)
Vendor I
Br&
Vcn&r I
High
Ven&r 2
Hieh
EIA Low
Price
EIA Hish
Price
Vmdor 2
LoB Lows Price Hidres Pricc Rangc
2018 $3.14 $2.80 $3 92 $2.19 $3.21 $4.71 $3.4r $3.29 $3.89 $2.85 $2.39 $4.71 $2.32
2019 $2.E2 $2.77 $3.89 $2.79 $4.00 v.91 $3.49 $3.82 $4.'.|',|$2.98 $2.17 $4.97 $2.20
2020 s2.E2 $3.08 $432 $2.83 $3.99 $4.98 $4.51 $3.94 $5 98 $3.r2 $2.83 $5 98 s3.rs
m2t s2.94 $3.38 94.14 $2.60 $3 86 $5.4r $5.r6 $3.71 $6.54 $3.28 $2.60 $6.s4 $3.94
$2.97 $3.48 $4 89 $2.s4 $3 72 $5.43 $6.69 $3.66 $7.35 $3.3r $2.54 $7.3s $4.81
2n23 $3.35 $3.69 $5. l8 $2.72 $3.98 $5.93 $8 t3 $3.84 $7.86 $3.51 $2.72 $7.86 $5.14
2024 $3.E2 $4.06 $5.69 $2.89 $4.22 $6.39 $'1.92 $4.10 $8.33 $3.s3 $2.89 $8.33 $5.44
2025 $4 16 $4. l6 $5 88 $3.05 $4.45 $6.80 g1 26 $4.31 $8.92 s3.60 $3.05 $8.92 $5.87
2026 $4. l8 M18 $s.m $3.20 $4.68 $7. l6 $4.46 $4.57 $9.58 $3.74 $3.20 s9.58 $6.18
2021 $4.33 M.33 $6.il $3.37 $4.93 $7.33 y27 $4.84 $10.04 $.m $3.17 $10 04 $6.67
m28 $4.s2 $4.52 $6 38 $3.54 $5. t6 $7.49 $4.31 $5.20 $t0.50 $4.04 $3.54 $10 50 $6.96
m29 $4.81 $4.81 $6.79 $3 68 $5.39 $7.77 $5.61 $5.34 $10.%$4.32 $3.68 $t0 94 $1.26
2030 $5.12 $5.12 $7.2i $3.81 $5 59 $8.05 tt.27 $5.30 $l 1.28 94.42 $3.81 $1128 s1.47
m3t $s.28 $5.28 $7.46 $3.94 $5.78 $8 26 s8.75 $5.17 $12.21 $4.51 $3 94 s12.21 s8.27
2032 $5.46 $5..16 $'7.7t $4.06 $5.95 $8.50 $9.1r $5.20 $12.83 $4.50 $4.06 $t2 83 $8.77
2033 $5.79 $5.79 $8.17 94.t7 $6il $8.77 $9.s8 $5.30 $ll.l6 $4.64 $4. l7 $B 16 $8.99
2034 $6.05 $6.05 $8.54 v.27 $6 28 $9.1 r $9.07 $5.43 $t3.48 $4.%$4.27 $lt 48 $9.21
2035 $6.34 .34 $8.95 94.37 $6.46 $9.6t $6.68 $5.56 $13 84 $5.08 $4.37 $13.84 $9.4'l
m36 $6.82 $6.82 $9.63 $4.48 $6.76 $9.86 $7 66 $5.66 $t4.78 v.sl M.48 $14 78 $t0.30
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecasts
$16
s14
sl2
$10
$t
s6
S4
s2
s0
/.O
e-Q-€
-node2
2
e
6
z
d
C a-ii+c- {-
O
66OidothQr66AFNoi6ANNNdNdNdNNO6O6O6oooooaoooooooooooooA-NNNdNdNdNNNdNNNNN
-Apr
26, 2017 OFPCI -Adopted High (vendor2 High - Adjuted)
.'.El...Vendor I Base
-G Vendor2High
- O- Vendor 2 Low
-D.Adopted Medim (Vendor 2 Base)
-D.Adopted Low (Vmdor I Low)
"'O"'Vendor I High{-ElA High Price{-EIA Low Price
29
aa
I!F
o
D
N
NzIU)
&g.lzr!
o.&
F-
N
I
d
U
l!()
R
!
o
a
I
d
N
S
x
tr.lF
H
D
c.l
Nz
a
od!.1zE]
az
r',oIr{
Fl
H
14R
U
Flopr
Itq(J
ilp.{
()zl-{FlrqRo
E4
Fra
a
Ea a;
8a a e
Se e g
$a e E
B'eafr
A^-h2c 2A
aatE
$a 0x
$a Ex
$a 8a
$a 8a
$a 8a
$a 8a
$a 8€
a.^oa aa
za oz
a^a^?c ?c
aatE
oc22
a
a
: tE 8E
staOn
;8u 8n
3 0u a 5
*8se;
o 9- - ea?666
* 8a a B
-G.-[eas
a38aE
E3€Ea
33gaa
33€Ea
ts3aea
;$ae€
i3aea
-A ^E a8I5
=3o-oo2o6o
/aaa8,
3sa;€
;ABAA
s
a
6
6.
I
a2
I
?
€sF66'a d???
B 8ga a
:88a a
;88aa
6
c
G^
a
a
cat
I
r
6.
I
a
I
$8eE
38a a
-^eEBA
3€" "
38a 8
3oe"
zga a
-zYA A
Saaa
6835
Q- - o
9aaO
8885
Ba85
m
t- rhlz, \/frz
HrI]r{ t-'UF
FF{FE1
E" 3;;r:l===G ga o vt a4
6a^^rxSg
&
F-
c-l
I
&
Ot!
(J
E
4.9>ztiA
.E .E .EQOO
EO
,4
E
Q
8I
I
la
z
U
=EAe-o.3>E'62 fi a,5
UOUUU
IO
I
z
O
.9Eu.2>E2fi:d6
OOOO
8I-G
la
z
-9
a
l
ta
U
a
a
E
oU
=
a
(J
zta
E
a
!
.Ea
UET
I
E
z
'a
e$
?
z
'rl
8
!
a
I
!
I
r
El-
f,
oi
a-.1
4
a
I!zEl
EBaSs G'
a
6'
a
s
B8E;g
=$a:f;G?-J4?
e
c
6
o
;8sas
s 888e
; E8e e
:88a a
* E8a 8
i 8ge e
- A^;9588
B 884 e
s 8Ee e
B38ea
-Fa--azoaa
:33a g
h
a
HEa8"
3$aga
: Ea oo
* 9a 8s
=Sooec?666
;8a s8
=8a88
sga6e
-F^a^aZ8?a
-F^a^aAa?a
i3a8a
d6^^^AZccc
aZcc?
dc^^^A-?ACc
aAcc?
-a_^^-adAAa
;s855
a*6??
Saaea
aUeaB
-^s69-a
*8088
;98: a
qO*A
ESat
too,
83aa
854*
fro-*
fo-o
s-^-
aaa€
NF^^^
vi266c
; $a e g
Na-__A-?AAA
;488E
;s885
aedc?
Zaaaa
*6a-z*za *E3sa 62'Jv'
A
('-
N
I
&oU
L
(J
()
tU.9>Y92fraai.E .s .E .E
(JO()QO
aa
z oU
., I sz,i o.s.s.E
qqE
OOO
O
EI
z
(J
-.x';s
-u.E>9'd'z9aa
(JQU(JQ
O
I
g
z c\lao
e oO
L
E
E
(;
EIF
o)
c.loa.tzII
Ilzr!
o.
r-
N
I
oUr
(-)
A
i
N
B 8a 3 a
*g**U
38*aa
*8asE
-a- _a
6aosa
;€835
; $e * I
B 8e a 3
B ta a s
rSo-oa2664
3 8a c a
58eae
iSea€
iSeaa
aaaaa
;3a 8a
;8855
o - ^ 56acc??
!saaa
-R*Eaag
o
e#.9e-u.3>E'82,n a,6i.E.5.s.s
QA(J(.)U
a
+
Fa
aa
r
6'
a
a
6
a
F
a
r
O
g
o
z
;t68a
a-aRS
ESaBB
-6-A-
oF-Foa?caa
+ 9 ah o
=s6:s62-JZG
< o =N o
* 8t0u
B ga0;
; E88e
i 388e
azc2c
aAcz?
iSaga
-F^-6A-?c??
-;e888
g a e €€
dcc2
E" Es
E,,,Z>2fio
EE.EU(JQU
O
E
.g
ts
O
sS3-Sa?2az
B 3go a
E t8o e
i 88a e
*EOa8
* 88o s
EEg;3
; E8o e
-a^ a4246?
B$8ae
Ea0ae
B 8e o e
i $a a g
3$aae
;34 a 8
ui@6ea
;aaa€
o-^^5aa66?
Bsaaa
GZ-
E86;a
O
=ii
'*2,na,5
OOUOO
r
O
€
ca
G'
g
a
r
6'
F
F
a-Io
z
caco
tr.)F
o)
c.l
c.lz
a
o&
,Llzq.l
&
F-
N
Io.
oUIt
O
n
!
a
a
t
s
R
q
d
r
.^=;g8U5A6
B8a88ee
hq^6^dNad6?c?a
:$aOeOs
B 3a 8e a B
*.^^6'i-o-6adg,?qA
i: a 8688
-6^a=6'-a Zc e,??6
aZc???4
a Ac ?2?6
6a^54^^a26?e.64
d ac 2??c
-6'^aaa^a-?c??2d
- ^^^^a Zc ??2?
i 3a 888e
-a^5=64acc 2???
iSaOEea
zaaaou.z.
A,";C6?c?
Saaaaaa
=i i.i^-
= A A -eOa;
ioU
z iE.9- .E ei9Y76''E1'E-z d > o o,in'
odddd{a
O()OU(JOO
a
F
c
6'
a
Ee
g
o
z
t
a
t
F
: $s a 88S
HBeaOaS
; $a a a 3B
BBaceag
* $* e a g:
ri----.G!dbaa6
*8aaa;g
-Aa a^;E€Ba5b
3 38eB aE
:308e 8a
s 3E8a 8a
BSSgeaa
;SaOaga
:3a 8e 88
gSagaOa
;3a gg 88
E0aSaae
a?c?6??
Asd6Cc6?
o_^^^^^-66CCCCd
* E, *; as
ioa!>x2 et.I
t?.?6dEi'Z:2fi>aaa
oqp!pqp!p!p!p
OOOU(J(.)O
o
.A
a
a
Ia
lq
z
n
!
n
n
oQa=aaaal?????
;886a 8a
; t88a 8e
a d??d ?6
* 388a 88
;388e Ee
*55Eaea
s 388a 8a
-a-^ ^;EEE885
s3E8a8a
;3EAB As
g388aee
iSaSaga
B$a8a88
g3a€age
;!aga88
838E888
;8e88U.2
;aeeeaS
o_^^^^^A64CdCC
-A-^^^^;d^-.No-o
6?wvv-!
IQ
. h,4E Eq.y- .e EqkEBE#fr'E:z,i>aAa
o!p!p!pa!0qp
OUOOOOU
c
G'
-
a
a
a
F
U
ca
z $ca
q.lF
H
D
N
N
4(Ja
tr.lzr!
&
F-
N
I
(-)
O
q
a
EBagSae
s 8a 88Ea
E $a 884;
s 8a 888;
;EsaZaal
;8a 88;3
;$a€8o$
;8e gga I
BSasOeg
;3e gEe a
;3a 83e a
5a-2c ???d
;3a 8e 8a
B $a ge a I
SSaOeaa
azc?6i6!9
=8a€.aOa
a,?6}, ?c2
a666?c?
o_^^^^^A;GdCCdd
G'
a6?2*d
8 EB;€ztI>6o
.3 .E .E .E .EUOOQOO
8(.)
.E
E
&
I
U
6'
6.
a
=
a
o
O
o
z
83€; €s
888; a 8
6e=o=-Y??a ea
5??a ?a
603* aa
t€6; o s
t88s ",
8O 26'* a
888a e 3
=^^dSEEEx
Eat;e*
iuu' * *
ABEEBS
i 3a 8a 8s
iSagaaa
-s^d-.d^aoc?d?c
;3e 8a a e
E Ea 8a e I
SaeaaaS
Saaaaaa
9RFsa^a;SEESEB
29
,. 9 = = 6ni766E.Eiz6>oo
o4tttEAUO(J9U
o
U
oU
ca
e
a
6
a{
I
a
8ac
g
o
z
-^^^^^l:oOO-oe 222?2
Sgaaa*
n --6-^ : ^i;eeE6ea6
t88e 8*
a-^ ^4guz8E5
888" a"
838" * *
88gu * *
SgBe a"
398* * *
;$.ea a a
3884 e I
-85888
-4.^^^^
--;6666@2?'vv'
:3a 8a 88
i 3a ga a a
;---;aa4.4aa
;U85858
a6C?C??
SsaaaaS
o-^^^6^A6ddd?d
- 9== 5i.x 7668.EizlI>oo
odu{&m
-tccEE
()(JOOOO
U
ii
I
.E
&
(.)
O
o
a
6
F
6
6'
a'
H
a
a
a
O
q
ra
z
lr)
a.)
g.lF
OaloNz
a
t!zE]
o.d
t.
c.t
I
d
(,
E()
o.
aEa?.-24
aa--v?a?E
$a83aE
StaOaOE
;$a8aaE
*A = d';-zA4.aaa
*$egaa8
s$aOa88
; $a gx a E
38*gaOa
:3a ga ga
! 8a 8s e a
gSagaga
B$ageeg
;3a €s 8e
-G'^6i-^^Aac?6d6E6
;888555
d,c;c6???
ZaaaaS.a
g $e 8a 6E
;!agOaa
O
s irl.H- .9E- rr A > 5.9 -g:?E Foat a'626>Aa,h
&.!,!,!.!.5,5
OOOOQUO
O
o
rc
a
?
a
*
6
6'
a
E
o
z
!
F
I
t
!
E33sBa8'i-l
r H - o R o :9144646c41-l
iSaaBaSl_l
28a aZ aZl
I
*S385a31
I*tsAa$ ^,1;86546;l_l;B38Ba:l
IESS9Esal
I:6a868;l
B 3a888
:3aa8a
;3r88a
s $a 888
s $a 8EO
;3a 888
a a6 22c
gaaaAO
!aaaa8
2aaaa8.
29.90
.x?. e6dE'52 d > o o
o qp!Qqp!ptp
9()OUU(J
;3a 88a
n666i6-=66b46Z
r
;{
-
o
a'
6
e
8a
E
z
a
H
6=ho-^^.6!?2aav;
EsbBaaBl--l
H8g8oo*l
-^^ ^ ISSEE;0al
I:x88"€81
I*888a8*l
Ii35E6E3l
I;888"8e|
I;$8e*€!l
-^^ri 8O5;5
;388o a
:838o a
38a8aE
i 3e 8a a
fl3a@og
n 3a 8a e
aAaYaa
;88885
YNOOO9aa666a=
aAXiti{id
E t3o* a
29o6,. 9 S < 6'pY i66E5z d > o o
4,!.5,5,5.5
o qp!p!pqp!p
O9OOOO
a
a
F
6
c
a
,,t
a
IO
la
z \o
c-t
r-ca
3I
I
ei
Aea
EEa
Eao
9Ea
Bgs
6Es
Eils
6fis
6tss
tqts
a8B
EEg
!ia
iaa
isB
3aa
gEa
9;a
gaE
Eea
Eaa
EEa
Eea
i58
,54
Eaa
Baa
9o"
3o"
Br"
=ie
ge9
545
6aO
ae
u1
42
E5
8e
E€
a?
3e
a2
aa
aL
a2
aa
"l:
cl:
,1,
t:8l;
"1,
"l=
"l*
t_cl:
"l*
"1,
t.al=
t:at9
"l*
:h
"1,
"lu
I
"lo
"l:
8lu
.]u
I
i-l '3
I!t6;t8
:lu
d.
d'
I
5tE
du
I:lta-
,l-
ul.
,1.
I
E]E
I
,li
Gai"
EE
3Ac
3io
;{e
8ao
3a
FA
I
2
a
0
a
a
e
c
aAY,
€45
aa€
gaa
6aa
E Eao
i:d'
ag
E
a
Igi{ rl
;tE i d
E
iqE
e
2
esa
EB;
9nq
EDs
6Ea
aas
EA8
EAs
Etss
,Bg
8Bs
EBg
faE
Eaa
8sa
3ea
gaa
0ae
3.t
Bea
S;8
Bua
E;8
Aca
tra
Baa
6ea
9aa
Bo"
8r"
Eaa
a-5
0a6
€aO
a--
9--
9:a
a:E
c--
E;n
a
9=x
6:a
6-^U;E
3n"
6r0
8oo
6
;,,
8n,
asa
8o o
88'
38o
aeu
aas
aac
;""
3"o
3,"
3"o
6ea
eg;
"l:
al9
,1,
t:8l:
"1,
t:al:
"1,
t:8l:
"lu
"l;
t.al=
t:Bl:
"lu
:l;
"lu
"lu
:l:
J,
Igt9
ilu
d'
dt
dt
slg
d,
{'
18
!E
16t-al;
du
,l=
"1"
J,
Il!
t?t:.12EI
aua
g8a
aaa
6an 8uu
I
3;
aII
.r
,J:I Iil r!
;lEE t
I
E
a
e
;a
:
8B
BA
$a
$a
Ea
a88
$a
Ia
Ia
$a
ua
;"
88
a
5
8aE
Boo
8o8
u8e
3"0
""3
--a;!E
aa?
aug
.38e
8cO
;Eg
:_ "5sg
5ue
E8g
€a0
8e 0
se€
$,;i
;ea
EBa
;8ts
HDs
EAs
BaB
E'g
Strs
888
nas
aas
EBg
Sia
AaB
Ssa
3se
S-a
0aa
B6a
G;a
CEa
B5s
Ea8
Aea
eea
Ea:
E-8
9o"
Eo"
Er"
=ia
u5g
8aO
0a€
I
E
Fl
fl
E]R
U
Flo0{
I
E]U
&
0.{
FzE]
Hil
=)q
rq&
rq
*lz
E]
14&
Fl
Po2e
r>
?RtsElac
=BEA
?FEX
trlF
o
c.l
cl
4Ua
&
tr.lzE]
Eao
o.&
F-
c..l
I
d
IE
C)
o.
Fi!t
"l'l6l8l
sl
"l9l
"1o1:lEi
-1al-l
alql
IEI
:l
:l"l
']ol
rl
lrl
,]
c
I
;l
rl
la
;-l
^lil
^lal
6o
,]
3
a
I
T
II{
!
EjtI
B
T
E
6
aE
a
i
6
g
g
F
H
D
N
c.lz
a
E]zql
;saa
Efi;a
EEca
gEaa
6Esa
BESA
Eisa
EE88
EsBB
SBUE
aBBB
EDUB
Siaa
tBaa
SsaB
Eaac
9aae
B6a8
t.ag
g;aB
Eaaa
E-";
A;e$
tr;ai
;uea;
"S6a:
-, ;
=ada
coaZ
EuoB
e;tE
aa68
5Aa3
6a 6g
6-884
5"t
q53
:
6o8
E8g
;Ea3:
8eg
"^889
880
6^dB3
;.gEa
U-.ac2
^Er?
Eaa
6"€
E"E
daE
U"u
aa?.
:DAE
8BB
8oE
€8s
Ea?
ac 2
Eu8
aaA
"
:
€aa
=--
8ea
aaa
aaz
6aa
;e8
EE;
zeu
:bB
BEg
AEB
E'O
agu
Egs
BBU
SBB
EBg
Aaa
Ss8
9aa
g6a
S;a
$68
B-8
Baa
E;8
Ee5
668
Aca
5;e
EeB
9aa
Eoa
E"o
E6a
8aO
6a€
"l:
al9
t"
8l:
I8l;
"lul:el;
ln
,l;
"lu
"l;
:l:
"1,
il8
{e
9la
1;
1:
E6"
8or
8as
a8s
l8E
Eis
8Es
i8s
EgB
€8,
EEC
252
taa
3ea
n5_
8I;
8Es
4ea
E€,
E6o
8ts3
B5-i
Uu,
8€o
gaD
88"
q9a
;",
aa9
a--.
"aAg
aas
;ea
EEa
9ao
:b8
6Es
BUs
6il4
Eag
8ru
6BE
EBs
$ia
5sa
SaB
3;A
9aa
9ee
B6a
Baa
S6a
B6a
EEa
Aea
iaa
E;a
ada
Eo"
3uo
=i8
Eo6
58U
6a6
"l:
al:
"1,
t:al:
"l=
:l;
t:alr
"1,
"l;
"l:
1c
:l;
.1,
:l:
"l*
"lu
el,
I
:lg
d'
I5t6Eln
{'
ila
1;
I
3:
J,
1:
"1.
ul,
t,IBl1.l:EI
eda422
E8{
tco
aiE
3tt
tao
6arals
EE€
9ae
;E€
i6?
3aa
Dad
aa.T.E
Eoe
8.??
88a
Eoe
g!a
8oc
gE.
uqq
iuu
3ee
i2a
6SE
aaa
3"6
3"t
E8g
8e8
aa6
l8
t;
l=
I'
IE
t,
t,
t^
t:IB
l;
l:
IE
l:
EAA aaa
6aa
&
F-
c.l
I
d
O
f&
Q
T:]
lEl a
Huu
- ^NadE g e;_
El
lFl 6ao
I
| 'l0l Il3i!I :
EelS;i
a Bau EZe
,
IEl *il r:l !ill9 !r,t12 6 6
:
!l 4-il ,!at !?
ilE i d
!I
I
agJr
i3;fl,:i ooca
,
e
!J.1F
c.l
olzoa
dt!zE]
aea
EEa
;ac
:b8
E;8
aa8
EBB
Eila
Saa
tgu
888
EEg
Eaa
SBa
Saa
3;a
Sas
S-a
Ee8
Bea
E6a
EEB
E6a
Baa
Eau
Baa
a--
9aa
Eru
Era
a;a
8a€
Aa€
8o,
g8l
;"ac9
^8"3
ax8:
adz
"9cg
.
avg
^8uB
o--auB
8",
Eua
e-"
8u:
t8E
,AE
E"o
tsaE
3oo
8""
Uar
dag
8"o
3",
8"o
8"o
8uo
3"o
3"o
;8E
aaE
se€
oe6
aaa
EEa
Efs
:hs
EEq
aau
6Aa
EiB
sgu
3BU
BBg
Equ
Aaa
'BE
teE
3.X
2aE
9ad
Bae
Eaa
E6B
Eaa
6qe
Xae
Baa
aeB
'o"o
9o"
Eaa
iua
Ea€
E85
3s8
e - e?.2
8"8
3;8
669
f;.6aeL
aaa
ae o
8:t
ts 6
ast
'lc
elc
,l;
=I,;16
,1,'l:
=19'l:
Et!
IElqol"
,te
"lt'l:
at:
I
'l:
tta
I
Et6
Ble
I
alB
"t_
;l;
'l:
'l:
:la
IElq
I
1:al8
I
alB
"lu
Ialfl
J;
I
ata
J;
I
1:A5
d"
t;.li;t!
ils
.lnq
;s8
Ef;
9ao
:bB
EBD
gBa
8AE
SAg
Eas
tBa
tsBB
EBg
a;;
isB
Sag
,;B
966
9aa
9a8
EEE
Baa
E6a
EeB
ica
,ea
Eaa
a.s
Eo"
:aa
=la
a;5
E8 5
3e 0
8€o
iBs
EEo
ato
883
86,
zE-
-ago
i2-
8a'
6.iEs
88,
aa
;;.
8oo
8Eo
E4_;
uuu
6oo
B9o
E8'
E9"
aE;
Br6
3oo
gEa
8"o
086
iee
8eo
3oo
aa6
o\aa
5-6'
5;b
6-6
3r8
n-q
8r B
g-u;
a.Ga!6
8.6
E?,A
8aE
:.6ga6
i.2 2
422
a?!_
3oO
688
to t
Ear
3"8
saa gaa
a88aaa
&
rr
N
I
d
()
E
(,)
o.
Eau 6oa E EB:
at
E
a>
uid.t
;l* ia
i-el *
at .!?
;IE E d
!
I2
i
f ri
;tE i d
lE *,,
Uuu,,
E]
le'l 6aotEt
Euu,,
$
t!F
H
3
c.l
c.lzo
a
&
zq
Ad
F-
al
I
r',
U
I
O
+ea
F
=
a
e?
Ga
I
a
=
I
!
F
o
.-,
G
Ia
Eg
z
s Eacd
s aScA
PH0sA
EE88A
:58€;l
=
8a8A
H Soeg
--^6e; a€.4
9 gSEE
B goeE
E 8888
I tsst
38"8t
E8*sO
ngaOE
0848
;Btt
e e 8a
cc2c
a85g
E3*s
IE'ad
InBaOE
IgEEEsl
I;3""9
;88eCI
oa
I
R?
I
"
l;
t,
t;
l=
I
t:
AA?
-^^aEE
+6.88!1
38"
t8a
6a-aa?
EEA
5 38a
C 6'=d22
CA.8Z?
f9r5e
U
pE
zfia,a
QOUO
U
,YE9u.4>9b2,5A,d
=
a
6
o
a
oa
R
66
I
F
o-
"
a
"-*
8U
€
Bg
z
eS-3
xo-
88E
a=
fi'. =o*?
n.I
6_A3Aa
e-o
F-6aaa
t"o
8*o
884
;4t80
InSaSE
Ie9e8d
I;3e 89
Iaaa2al
IaaeEel
:ax:d:d:d
i3- eg
aO!
^.4go.3>Etsa E9? 3]'6t1AaO
^" E-s-s.s
E]z
&orl
Fl
*rqa
U
FloA
I
rqU
&0{
oz
FlH
Ro
EzinOhar>aR4
F,.&Z t-{
[I]Adz
EAHZLdTB
F
!
D
N
c.lz
a
I!zt!
0.I
F-
N
IordU(J
&
O
A
4
(J
a
I
z-
c
ah
.Ea
()
s
I
z;
,)
c..l.+
a
EJ
I
sc
ta
c
r
a
a
ea
la
z
^^^^l-- -l
66anl29!?sl
:tb 99 : -lA*?Al
Itga;l
I
33831
I
ataEt
I
ases;
uurJ
;;, J"l
^IsstBl
8
a
:t808
.".-.1* :r' :]
=:"r1
;sea1
B8"sB
I:€8EA
a a a ta
;AsEEl
;EAEE
ou
-.x0.eo.4>E92E3A
: PPPS
UOQOO
e
a
g
?
a
a
-;{
ts
@
Iaa
o
z
c
!
398*3
^6^ -gaaE6
gEe"6
gBa"8
-^gH=^sa426O
-Q= A
a -??- z
HE8*9
EgsoB
gg3-g
-G.a 2
s&5 A;Eas€
a,i= tr;E€8€
3 t* o I
3t*"t
:E88€
-a =:€88€
;$ae€
seo-F;€+B€
I
,,2=
2fio
qqE
OOOU
o
.x
(,
I
a
F
-
F
I
Oo
la
z
6'
8s--AiS64
sfi
;888
.G2e8 I
-3
s9.o-
--:88 s
oG'9a83
;Bod
^ISasBl-1
-^t6-1
I
l_ti!eafl
ra
+S
oGa2
=$.;E
O
eu.3>E92E3A
^- E E.E.Ex-..-o9p!9999
(.)OOOU
c
a
3
IJ.]F
D
N
Nz
a
tr.lz
tr.l
rr
N
I
&oOr
(.)
0.
E]F
N
olzIa
d,qzr!
&
t--
ol
I
()
It
C)
A
8g
6a
8
6.
6?
SRg?
!E8a
=98
a
a4
baoo
Ca
66
* 8" o
^^t:a8aA
II^^t
1
I
iBeSEl-l
I_t
z3a6dl -l
I^td66eal
I u-;3
eS
UI=l*El
*2834
(JUUUUI
9
R
U
o
6
F
6
s
G'
6
6
a
I
t
IUa
c
z
F
a
3
R
E
9!No-Xa a22 ")
^!; a" a-d
BgaaS
x 3s33
-- ?e22
-6'=a6j;€doEl
s*s3e
-_ N ^^3;aEaa
9gsaE]
g$8€E
s6aaO;a"59
* SEst
3E*8t
- - ^-:83€g
38*sE
sSe83
;ge8o
aaa2z
a a aA,a
!-gEEh
O
zE.Eso.. 9 < 5ixe6n'32 fi a,6
(JQQQO
O
o
a
I
G'a
G
G'
e
c
6
t:
Ecat€3:1 U
- - -9
6i'=i884.s
-ts-=
88e$
^^aF=S6ao9Z
s 88e$
S=-a
Aa.a
s3'3+6's6-IAa??-J?
s F6'aF;2?22
E8*8t
E8"88
:485€
9t"e6
;84 88
eaeOa
:g848
(J
ea.U> I.62 6 a,5
UUOUU
!
r
-
r
a
F
F
6
e
a
G.
8a
z
c.ls
IJ.]F
)
c.l
ciz11
U)
I\,
rl]zq.l
o.d
F-
Oc.l
I
d
UL
Q
o.
t
!
g ga a3o9
a ge aSaE
B E8 aSsg
ggaeBaB
33"33*3
s 3* 33a3
g ge oSat
;*84858
B 8a a3a8
ggasgeB
;Es86sg
g ge sssB
3Ea80afl
lse6€8Bl
$$a68e$l
:a86a8d
:9a88ed
aaaaOEa
aeaazaa
5E- aeog
oo
ixe g,r
. .9- .9EZ" 4A>e-eSZ,5; E d a
o {ddddil
-cccccE6!!EE<=Q(JOQOOO
oea
4
t:
l=t2
t,
t.
t;
t_
t.
t;
la
t,
I
l"
l"
r
O;E
z
s g8as8t
c 33aceg
*6.= - aSaZaVaZ
.6- - a2;oa za I
g tEss' a
E 888ss E
E tsoe* g
5 EA8E8E
P E3as88
5 8saE8g
* -^^^ -:aEzaeS
lYh-NO:fi52??eL
E8e88eB
g $e EOs$
s ga s888
EEa38a8
;3e 88e g
aaeeSae
aaea€aa
I aaa eg
oat
>*E IE.90<kEe;*€2ti>ddt7,r
&sssil4
E.EEE.E.E()()(.)QUQ
t;
t;
t-
t,
t;
8a.€
o
z
g 883a- E
B 88oaa$
s 98eoog
E 880a" I
g 88Eaa8
s 888a8E
^. ^=^^^i:€E6€Ea
-==^^^5568aaEa
B 88oae$
-64..^a228??aE
E tSaae I
I Ssaa* g
3Ea86aB
g $e sss$
g ga €Os8
6a 3ZZa aas Z
*C - ^aaazaaY
b 6 -^^al$6=ts6-35C!2q28
6O
!
e grr.90E
EE:EEiIge"gggdccc<ec
(J(J(JOOO
t^le
l.
l2
It
t;
t;
t;
l.
t?
I-
t;
t-
t:
l.
Oo
o
z ++
!r.lF
a
D
N
Nz
a
/r!zrrl
F.
N
9r
(-)
A
E te 8* o B
^e$EaEaEB
!$asas$
!gaOaoI
=48;aBD
!$e!aaI
H Ea Oe o S
-- Ci$e€aa!
i$eaa8$
;588s88
!$aOaa$
g $e 8a a $
g $e 8s a $
g$aOa8$
:88?a83
Bg86a88
EBe8o88
e 8a 8e 8a
ooooooo
SAAAAAA
i8*g;-E
I()
r i#
9ACfrHEd;ts.'bzti>oa,h
4.5,!,!.5.5 5
OOUUUUO
?a
G'
-a
6
a
a
g
a
a
9
a
a
a
F
8U
P
la
z
t38o * I
6-^ .iiEuab
33e" ea
830' ea
883; s8
833" * E
-^^ ,a* A;8 8:
-^^ A$€Eae;
-^^ 6Ya--^oY22d d a
888o e I
tsEAas!i
Uuu- -,
$e 8a a $
$a 8s e $
$e 8a s $
88aa8a
$eOae8
?c?6?c
5^^^^^e.6;66i, i,
8
iESEs'a
ee
S EBA#zd>oo
-E-e.E€-EU(J()QOO
U
U
c
,.q
c
o
a
a
a
z
E E88388
E883s3
689=11 ils6OO'JA
A-d--=gaa2.5;-J
EEa€6a
^^^^^+E88EeA
--^^ a€58€a;
88os* I
E888a8
aa-- aE8Et83
r
3 tSoe* I
$ Sooea g
g $a sss$
Ete88a8
B te 88e 8
E8e38a3
;3e 8€e 8
a a a a t8e
@e@@@@@
s64..^6;Easseg
EE
.. 9 s = 5xe66Ez@>oo
.E .E .E .E .EQQUOOoO
a
O
Fa
I
a
ea
a
F
c
a
r
:d
U
o
z
tr)s
qF
o
f
N
NzoI
I
&g.lzrI.]
&
F-
c.l
I
&oO
Q
)
I
)
F ^Gac?11 ?a
d^ts^ 6@a6?s?a
ac?d6iaa
8
2d ?a
.^a ^ ^e:;8884a
;5888-;
;;aoa;3
IaaOaa$
!$aOaa$
s $a 8a a $
;g8oa85
$$88aaH
g$a8oa$
:88€.a5€
g$aOaa$
g$a3ae$
i8a€848
8885588
aaaaS.aa
=E-54*E
IQ
e i#.9- .9 E9rrii)S.99!ri Eoa'b e'62fi>ao5
o&&sodd
OAEEEEE(JO(JQOO(J
aG
a6
F
a
c
c
-a
e
?
-x
a
6
a
6
oO
z
n
n
a
I
a
R
r
xSoae=S;ez?Z?a
e Saoaeg
tr=Nat=i
a ??! ?? 6
,$=6.e=fZ -zZe?z a
3 93e3" E
B 88s38 g
EBssaaB
5 8ss0' I
g 8ss0a I
g 8888' I
r6sac^Q;z???c c
<Aa-- Ai8€€€aE
38e88a8
! $a ss8$
g$a88e$
:68A588
;6a88e8
eeaaEaa
eeaa?,aa
;TE6E
aoO
>xE ?E9 0ExIEEE€g.62fi>aa6
O(J(J(JQOQ
oO
5',
I
e
e
*
a
C
F
6'
F
-
a
a
E
a
z
!
!
r
a
R
xSeae-S;ez??*d
o6G'===t:AA:2e:28
B 88aeo$
E 88oea$
;8g0ea$
;58888A
S Sgoeu $
-=^^^ ^iESaEaB
!a$Osa$
E EBcoa I
* 8aoo" g
3Ea88aB
oG' .-^a:E8EEZ€
3ta88a8
E 8800" g
^A =a ^;g8EZ85
aaaaSaa
98e08aE
:E:;;AE
660646G
oQ
>xe ztr-goEeEA>392,5>Ada
.E.E.E.E.EEQUOOUU
'a
ts
6
a
r
r
x
a
aa
c0
z \o
=f,
30aaa
;0aBi
te6:a
,CE;B
J0aia
108;E
:0aBa
388;a
s 8e 3 a
r 9B; a
385:s
Egr:E
59a;E
e05;a
e8!gB
ae3;q
50588
s6sgE
E6agE
s83gE
gTTBB
sEiEd
E0rgd
BOEEE
E08gB
ESBgB
ATBEB
'EBgE
EEdgB
a3a$a
! ta I e
F]t
14a
U
joo{
I
E]U
&0{
Fz
E]
rq/,
=)oE]&
El
-) ,,a0
EA
.t a
31,z,rz t-i
l1HRt-Z
AE
5B
FNrEiP
IJ.]F
!)
N
Nz
a
&q.lzsl
aaaaa
aaaSa
aaaaa
SeBB
I
E
E3E:iIBtB,2'
E;
ijsi
0.&
r..
N
I
d,
Q
9-
U
o.
6&E8i
Iir i.{ '!ilx i s l;l;
d=
It,
>lrzlz2l
t
;
i-
J3t:}B
el*
:IT.lntf
d*
36s6,
i0alt
3a8g&
seaEA
aea;s
t08:E
i08;E
t8a!a
sSelu
r8s;a
38E:a
ses;a
a8B;B
s9r;a
agsAB
i€tsBE
a€iit
s63BE
EEagE
resBE
gEJgB
e83!d
E8;!d
E OE 3 B
E €8 g B
E gE E B
;34; s
eEags
aBaga
a6a$a
itaBs
"l* eecff l."l; E30dE h
"lu uauda lu
:l: ;:;l; l:
'1, tuuda I'
"l* tuuds l,
l':::1il'
Ju a=ds I,
Ju aatdu lu
lu aa'da l,
"lu rrrda l,
"|t ioada l,
"1, tasdu l"
'lu saoda l,
"lu c, u da l,
"lu s'adc l,
"l* euade l,
dr tutd' It
dr utuds lu
d, aaoda lc
d' euude la
d* auude la
J= cao$ 16
d* ,,ude I'
{- u".{i
l=ala $eefl! la
d, u"udt lu
d* t"uJt lu
1,":fl;
aaaaa
aaaaa
aaBaa
T:]tEt "t(lIIEllitt*llltt,1
I lrr Flilil?
tEtfl i
Efl!
8:Es E€8
IE:l!
ilE
fl!3,;i
3
3
.E
!t:,
!
la
aaaaa
aaaaa
aaaaa
E8a
BAa
aaa
BAA
aaa
tg68g
i0a!:
s0BEa
30888
i08;E
,58;g
azeae
tAs:a
i88;u
i8s;a
BgE;a
rgr;a
rgE;a
sOa;s
seaSe
,€igB
E6r5n
s63gE
aOEgE
EE3!E
strEB
stxEB
EOIBB
r0aEE
B O8 E B
EOBEB
aEngo
,3aea
r€o;s
aSaEa
g€eBe
"lt
t:
"l;
1Et-atq
"l;
"lu
"l;
"l;
t:ata
"lu
I
"l:
8lE
"lu
"l:
"l:
8li
"lu
"l'
t:
3;
{=91,46
.lil:
516
J^:':l:?)d
d,
.l
F)e
d,
"1"
"1"
"1"
aa
6n
6a
6i
66
aa
6:9A
eaaa
8s
t5o
F=ezz2
rEa
IE€
BBU
a8o
EEE
8Eo
8E5
865
6a:48|l
83e
8ec
eaE
B9li
E8 E
a85
aEa
ET;BB Eas
$,si
b
5
r 53
a
B
&
a
t
I
t^flaUaI'
I
:l!
ilr
sl!
ea
6
I
ei
c-sf
,I
e
I2
I
2
i
at
::ilil:
;::fl; h
ilf,; l:
r" uda l,
c"uda lult
E"E"l8 l;
^t^tE"€3lB h
t" u *ls lu
," ,4! I'
8"3al3 lE
,"rgls l,
;";d; I,
ililtli
E"31;
18
e" aa3 lE
a"adn lu
,,rde l,
a"ade lu
;:;l; h
i":1= l:
::;* |;
9.1F
n)
N
c.lzIch
&tr.lz
IJJ
o-
F-
N
Iq
(-)
E
O
o.
39E48
i68gi
i8a!0
a3E:B
J0aEE
t"E;g
a2aZe
i8e!a
t8e!i
388:a
38s;s
a8s:a
Egr;a
$85;B
sgaeB
s3a;g
$FsnF
azr;D
s0agB
r83En
eSrEB
98;Bd
EorBd
BOagB
ESBEE
ECEEB
E3E;S
'EBgE
EEfi*E
a3a$e
!€aBe
'lc g" odg la
* ::;* l;
:h l::3; l;
"l' u" 'ii l'
"lg 8"crl8 13
"1, ,"ua]a l,ttt
:l; ;::ffi l:
* ;:;* l:
* ::;f,; l:
'li;"1i1':|; ::;a; l'
"lE $ee!.lg la
d* u"uda la
d; :::]; l:
1:iiilili
3; ;::# l;
d, a"da lu
d= a". Js lu
'1, ""1'
l'
aaaaa
aaaaa
aaaaa
sSaBs
;l;l;
et-
JEi! I
{!E}i
a e4dBtE*t
:l
i
$a al=
Il!
Eti
tl.2l $,
3!cza
;6a]:
33r:B
338;g
i98;D
3eu;g
i 08; a
t88;a
s88;a
res:a
38E;fi
EsB=s
i8s:E
sgs=g
sis9a
a?t;q
E6slE
r8*9fl
!8;!ts
sAiEB
E0;9fi
EOagB
E8BE8
E8B9B
;Ee;e
rEnge
EEdBE
aSaEe
9488ts
EAAAA
BAAAA
aaaaa
cSaBB
atr
JIEt rY: Jc: z-T I T;E6
t ctt;ItriE
oa-
a;4aa
e6;
iad
83"
F4_
fr!-?26
q.
aie
Gs
E 3'
aae
5.a2-
83'
ae-
4?-
ga-
ai!
6ii8_
a€E
88o
E6o
88o
8E8
Ea8
aaa
6-aZc 2
Esta
6__
8aa
€ae
aa8
;;t;
Bd,
3I
!>
,58
3aE8g
;8a!:
8aE:g
B3E;g
t08;E
i8a;E
3€8;E
;0s;a
i88;I
iCs;a
seE;s
B9s:E
Eea;E
sg5;E
*iqea
ts6ts98
EOigB
a2r;a
s6agE
s83HE
seigB
eAiEB
s0rgt
EOagE
ESBEB
EEBAB
aEn;e
xSnga
aSaga
sSeEs
:€aBa
aaaaa
aaaaa
aaaaa
cSEgB
t
ii
i! s!: ic: :-
iEE$3:;i:II
!qril83222
s
B
g
3
s
t
;
€
e
g
e
B
{i
I!tE
1:
t;:l:
3:
I
1:
:l-
416
"lo
atR
;;:I;
518
€lFl
EE
rl;
Ist1l
EIE:
:"alnlRtal
11a;
I{-lF
J;
I
-t-
a4
da
J*
l;lx
.1"q)d
"l;
"1"
"1"
t^
=lS9td
I
:13
ilE
II,;i
a31
9tr'
88a
8Ai
65633;
aea
aFa
6Ga
Eaa
e-Ff
EB6
83;
88i
5aE
DED
8ae
=54t8a
86A
E8c
EEO
tao
6Ee
t6a
6oc
Eo8
t"8
9ue
ac 2
aaO
a
g
iE5
s
,
c
E9
a
aaa
aaB
u3B;
!!l *!l ,!.l !a
;IE .5 E
Q$
g.lF
N
Nz
a
&
zr!
o.&
('-
N
I
&
()
L
(J
t?Ea!
tCe;3
asu;s
azdig
aaa;B
I0a ! E
3€a!a
x8a!a
nSaia
38c;a
Bgs;s
t5B;8
E0s;a
s8E;E
E8e3B
a2a;q
E6riB
9?B;g
E€aga
rc3!E
ESTEB
a3a;s
E€Tgd
BSAEB
B08gB
E€BEB
A3E:B
rSBgB
EEdgE
B€a$a
l€sBe
aaaae
aaaaa
aaaaa
g8;;qB
e
B*
E r
d
6$i:::,B'
8"6
6^Zae
a^iao
€,6
t"€
ad?
:Eaa:
8"6
3^:6d e
6^
aE 6
e^
a8 E
6^=;83
;.aE2
"^iBE
"^;89
"Xa8:
3"€
EBt
;a8a
8" o
o58I
68 5
6o o
E" 6
8" 8
8"6
8o€
Ee6
i"u
8" 6
aaa
,ad
aaa
d=
9^
Ifl;ll rl
;1956
58ag;
;0e!:
8sr;a
3:H:A
I98: E
J08;E
i08;a
l8e!a
lra8;d
res:a
398:fi
s8s:a
rga;E
s9E;a
iAq9&
56iia
aer;E
E6E!B
s6$BE
98TEB
a9t:B
E6TgB
EOEgB
E6BgB
E6EE8
aBngs
aBngn
858;a
6EB:;
i6aBe
aaaBa
BAAAB
aaaaa
gEa;E
t
JEt4t.!
d{E *9l :!t:tt E!
}li I i
t
22
8e3
a??
s:6EE'
Eaa
aii
aae
iaa
;0?
Sos
Eaa
aAa
ae?
in65"e
E.5
a8E
5EE
Eb6
8.0
Ebs
tce
8"8
8"8
z8!
E"8
6oO
aa6
aaa
a"4
t^gl$
l.!lt
ilt!lia
lIfl
B
I{t
E>
,53
t-
fliil'
ICEAB
:0e!:
38Bla
il:E;B
ag!;B
agE;g
rgr;g
lSela
588;u
i€s;a
ses;s
E9r;E
Ees;E
sCs:E
Beaga
a?8;g
5€rgE
a3a;a
sEsgE
s83BB
BOTEts
a3a:B
E6iBE
E€BgB
ESAgB
EEBEB
a3n;s
rBnga
sSaga
a€aEs
;6aBs
-ls qaeda le
"1, ,Eesls la
"lu s;e du l,ttt
:l; il;3; l;
:l; :;:i: l;
:l; ;:;1; l:ttto16 6SiBla latttul$ 63rala lE
-lu rtqEl; lE
"lu ,i.ala letttol8 Ei€gl; ls
"1, al.ds la
"l* aacd; le
"1, oaaela la
'1, s a: sla lE
.lu e esf
le
"lE Ea6flE la
J, aseda l:
;lr asgJs l:
d* , a'da le
r]' aaada lql* qeud; le
J, auuds I'r* u";slc le
i, '",11 I'
13 t".li
l"d; Iea5]l la
ul* u"u,lu lul!
"1,::::|:l:
aaaaa
aaaaa
aaaaa
IE eq;:cd:
ls; , Itl x.! ; t-
LlEltE*3a;li
EH!!;';il5
EEgT e
il
i,*!rg Eq
o's