20151211Decision Memo.pdf

DECISION MEMORANDUM
TO:COMMISSIONER KJELLANDER
COMMISSIONER SMITH
COMMISSIONER RAPER
COMMISSION SECRETARY
LEGAL
WORKING FILE
FROM:RICK STERLING
DATE:DECEMBER 8,2015
SUBJECT:STAFF’S SUBMISSION OF PACIFICORP’S SAR-BASED AVOIDED
COST RATES COMPUTED PURSUANT TO ORDER NO.33425 IN CASE
NO.PAC-E-15-12.
On December 4,2015,the Commission issued Order No.33425 in Case No.
PAC-E-15-12 approving Rocky Mountain Power’s Application to use summer 2025 as its
capacity deficiency period for use in SAR-based avoided cost calculations.The Order further
directed Staff to submit an updated SAR model and SAR-based avoided cost rates in accordance
with the Order.
Pursuant to Order No.33425.PaciflCorp’s SAR-based avoided cost rates have been
computed by Staff and are attached.Upon approval of the rates,Staff will provide an electronic
copy oithe updated SAR avoided cost model to PaciflCorp and other interested parties upon
request.
COMMISSION DECISION
Does the Commission wish to approve PaciflCorp’s SAR-based avoided cost rates
computed using summer 2025 as the Company’s first capacity deficiency?
Rick Sterling 7
U pacI5I2dm
DECISION MEMORANDUM 1 DECEMBER 8,2015
PACIFICORP
AVOIDED COST RATES FOR WIND PROJECTS
December 14,2015
5IMWt
New Contracts and Replacement Contracts without Full Capacity Payments
Eligibility for these rates is limited to projects 100 kW or smaller.
LEVELIZED NON-LEVELIZED
CONTRACT ON-LINE YEAR
LENGTH CONTRACT NON-LEVELIZED
(YEARS)2015 2016 2017 2016 2019 2020 YEAR RATES
1 3336 34.06 3442 35.69 39.37 4305 2015 33.36
2 33.70 34.23 35.03 37.46 41.14 44,46 2016 34.06
3 33.92 3468 3637 39.18 42.63 45.61 2017 34.42
4 3431 35.72 37.85 4069 4387 46.58 2018 35.69
5 35.17 3597 39.24 41.97 44.91 47.38 2019 39.37
6 36.25 36 20 40.46 43,06 45.76 48.72 2020 43 05
7 37,34 39.32 41.53 43.98 47,06 4996 2021 46.00
8 38.36 4032 42.44 45.22 48.26 50.98 2022 48.19
9 3929 41.20 43.62 46.40 4926 51.78 2023 49.99
10 4012 4230 44.74 47.39 50.07 52.46 2024 51.27
11 41.15 4336 4571 48.20 5076 5308 2025 57.16
12 42.13 4428 46.51 4891 51 40 5370 2026 59.84
13 4300 4505 47.21 49.56 52.03 54.34 2027 6078
14 4374 4574 47.86 50.19 5266 54.96 2028 6093
15 4440 4637 4849 5082 5328 5558 2029 6160
16 45.01 4698 49.11 5144 5389 5623 2030 62.83
17 4550 4758 49.71 52 C4 54.52 5683 2031 6490
18 46.18 4817 53.30 5266 55.17 57,53 2032 67.31
19 4674 4674 50.91 5329 55.76 5818 2033 6940
20 47.29 4932 51.51 5388 56.41 5888 2034 71.85
2035 7523
2036 78 54
2037 80 46
2038 84.79
2039 89.95
2040 9545
Note’These rates will be further aojusted wth the abpt:cabte integration charge
Note’The rates shown in this table have been computed using tne U S.Erergy lnformaton Administration (EIA)s Annual Energy
Out:ook 2015.reteased Apri 14.2015 See Ar.rual Erergy Outlook 2015.Table 3 6 Er.ergy Prices by Sector-Mountain at
http.Iiww.v eia.govlforecastsiaeo/tables_ref.cfm#supplemer.U
PACIFICORP Page 1
PACIFICORP
AVOIDED COST RATES FOR SOLAR PROJECTS
December 14,20Th
$IMWh
New Contracts and Replacement Contracts without Full Capacity Payments
Eligibility for these rates is limited to projects 100 kW or smaller.
LEVELIZED NON-LEVELIZED
CONTRACT ON-LINE YEAR
LENGTH CONTRACT NON-LEVELIZED
(YEARS)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YEAR RATES
1 33.36 34.06 3442 35,69 39.37 43.05 2015 33.36
2 33.70 34.23 3503 3746 41.14 44.46 2016 34.06
3 3392 34,68 36.37 39.18 42.63 45.61 2017 34.42
4 34.31 35.72 37.85 40.69 43.87 46.58 2018 35.69
5 3517 3697 39.24 41.97 44.91 47,38 2019 39.37
6 36.25 38.20 4046 4306 45,78 52.85 2020 43.05
7 37.34 39.32 41.53 4398 50.45 57.08 2021 46.00
8 3836 4032 4244 48.08 54.23 60.37 2022 48.19
9 39.29 41.20 4605 51,48 57.26 62.95 2023 49.99
10 40.12 44.40 49.13 54.28 59.70 65.08 2024 51,27
11 42.97 47,18 51.71 5659 61.75 6690 2025 87.48
12 45.48 49.54 5387 58.55 63.52 6854 2026 90.60
13 47.65 51.55 5572 60.26 65.13 70.05 2027 91.99
14 49.51 5329 57.37 61.82 66.61 71.43 2028 92.59
15 51,14 54,85 5886 6327 67.97 7272 2029 9373
16 52.60 56.27 6025 64.59 69.24 73.96 2030 9543
17 53.95 57.60 61.53 65.83 70.45 7515 2031 97.98
18 55.20 5882 62.73 67.02 71.62 76.26 2032 100.87
19 5637 5997 6388 6816 72.71 77.35 2033 10346
20 57,47 61.07 64.98 69.22 73.78 78.44 2034 106.41
2035 110.29
2036 114,11
2037 116.56
2038 121.42
2039 127.15
2040 133.16
Note:These rates wilt be further adjusted with the applicable integration charge.
Nate The rates shown in this table have been computed using the U S.Energy Information Administration (EIA)s Annual Energy
Outlook 2015,released April 14,2015.See Annual Energy Outlook 2015,Table 3.8 Energy Prices by Sector-Mountain at
httpllw.nv eia.goviforecastslaeo/tables_ref.crm#supplemenU
PACIFICORP Page 2
PACIFICORP
AVOIDED COST RATES FOR NON-SEASONAL HYDRO PROJECTS
December14,2015
SIMWh
New Contracts and Replacement Contracts without Full Capacity Payments
Eligibility for these rates is limited to projects smaller than 10 aMW.
LEVELIZED NON-LEVELIZED
CONTRACT ON-LINE YEAR
LENGTH CONTRACT NON-LEVELIZED
(YEARS)2015 2018 2017 2018 2019 2020 YEAR RATES
1 33.36 34.06 34.42 35.69 39.37 43.05 2015 33.36
2 33.70 3423 35.03 37.46 41.14 44,46 2015 34.06
3 33.92 3468 36.37 39.18 4253 45.61 2017 34.42
4 34.31 3572 37.85 4069 4367 46.58 2016 35.69
5 35.17 3697 39.24 41.97 44,91 47.38 2019 39,37
6 36.25 38.20 40,46 4306 45.76 5245 2020 43.05
7 37.34 3932 41.53 43.98 50.12 56.39 2021 46.00
8 3836 4032 42.44 47.80 5365 59.46 2022 48.19
9 39.29 41 20 45.82 50.99 5648 61.87 2023 4999
10 4012 44.20 4871 53.61 58.76 63.85 2024 51.27
Ii 42.79 4681 51.13 5577 60.68 6556 2025 84.53
12 4516 49.03 6315 57.61 62.35 6710 2026 87.61
13 4720 5092 54.90 5923 6386 68.52 2027 8896
14 4895 5256 56.44 6070 6525 69,83 2028 89.52
15 5048 54.02 57.86 62.06 6654 71.06 2029 9061
16 51 86 5537 5917 5332 6775 72.24 2030 92.27
17 53 14 5562 60.39 5450 6891 7338 2331 94.77
18 5433 5779 61 53 6563 7002 74,44 2032 9762
19 5544 5888 6252 66,72 71 07 7549 2033 10015
20 5648 59.93 6368 67.73 7209 7654 2034 103.05
2035 106.89
2036 110.66
2037 11306
2038 117.86
2039 12354
2040 129.60
Note.The rates shown n th.s table have been computed using the U $Energy lnfcrmaton Admnistration (ElAys Annual Energy
Outtook 20Th,released Añ1 14.2015.See Mnual Energy Out!ook 2015.Tabe 38 Energy Prices by Sectcr-Mountan at
ht:p llwww eia.gcv/forecasts!aeo/taoesjef cfm#supfrement)
PACIFICORP Page 3
PACIFICORP
AVOIDED COST RATES FOR SEASONAL HYDRO PROJECTS
December14,2015
SIMWh
New Contracts and Replacement Contracts without Full Capacity Payments
Eligibility for these rates is limited to projects smaller than 10 aMW.
LEVELIZED NON-LEVELIZED
CONTRACT ON-LINE YEAR
LENGTH CONTRACT NON-LEVELIZED
(YEARS)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YEAR RATES
1 3336 3406 3442 3569 3937 43.05 2015 33.36
2 3370 34.23 3503 37.46 41.14 44.46 2016 34.06
3 3392 34.68 3637 39.18 4263 4561 2017 3442
4 3431 3572 37,85 4069 4337 4655 2015 3569
5 35.17 3697 3924 41.97 4491 47.38 2319 39,37
6 3525 3820 4046 4306 4578 5526 2320 4305
7 37.34 39.32 41 53 4398 52.44 61.24 2021 4500
8 3836 40.32 42.44 45.74 57.72 65.84 2022 48 19
9 39.29 41.20 4747 5445 61.92 69.47 2023 49.99
10 4312 45.62 5165 5830 65.32 72.44 2324 51.27
11 44.03 49.41 5521 61.48 6815 74.97 2025 10516
12 47.44 52.61 5816 6417 70 63 77.20 2026 10854
13 5336 5534 6065 6651 7277 79.21 2027 11019
14 5287 57.70 6251 6861 74.74 81.04 2028 111.07
15 5507 59.79 6451 7052 7653 82.72 2029 11247
16 5703 61 69 6675 7227 7819 84.30 2030 11445
17 5882 6343 6843 7388 79.75 85.80 2031 117.27
18 6047 6504 6958 7540 81.22 87.19 2032 12045
19 61.99 6652 71.45 7684 82.59 8853 2033 12332
20 6340 67.93 7284 7817 83.90 89.85 2034 12656
2035 13074
2035 13487
2037 137.62
2038 142.79
2039 14883
2040 155.16
Note A seasonal hydro proect”is defined as a generation fac;I:ty which produces at least 55%of its annua generation during the
months of June,July.and August Order 32832
Note’The rates shown in this table have been computed using the U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy
Outlook 2015,released April 14.2015 See Annual Energy Outlook 2015,Table 38 Energy Prices by Sector-Mountain at
httpJIvnv.eia govlforecastslaeoltables_ref cfm#supplemenU
PACIFICORP Page 4
PACIFICORP
AVOIDED COST RATES FOR OTHER PROJECTS
December 14,2015
SIMWh
New Contracts and Replacement Contracts without Full Capacity Payments
Eligibility for these rates is limited to projects smaller than 10 aMW.
LEVELIZED NON-LEVELIZED
CONTRACT ON-LINE YEAR
LENGTH CONTRACT NON-LEVELIZED
(YEARS)2016 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YEAR RATES
1 3336 3406 3442 35.69 39.37 43.05 2015 33.36
2 33.70 34,23 35.03 3746 41,14 44.46 2016 34.06
3 33.92 34.68 3637 39.18 42,63 4561 2017 34.42
4 34.31 35.72 37.85 40.69 43.87 4658 2018 35,69
5 35,17 3697 39.24 41.97 44.91 47.38 2019 39.37
6 36.25 38.20 4046 43 06 45 78 51.36 2020 43.05
7 37.34 39.32 41.63 4398 4923 54.52 2021 46.00
8 38.36 4032 42.44 47.06 62.08 56.98 2022 48.19
9 39,29 41.20 4518 49.65 54.37 68.92 2023 49.99
10 40.12 43.64 47,55 51,80 5623 6053 2024 51.27
11 42.31 45.80 49.55 53.56 57.79 61.92 2025 7655
12 44.27 47.64 51.21 55.07 5915 63.19 2026 79.51
13 4597 49.21 52.66 5640 6040 64.38 2027 8074
14 47.43 50.57 53.94 57.63 61.58 65.49 2028 81.18
15 48.71 51.79 55.12 5878 62.67 6654 2029 82.16
16 49.86 52.92 5623 5985 63.70 67.57 2030 83.68
17 50.94 53.99 57.27 6086 64.71 68.57 2031 86.05
18 51.95 54.98 5825 61.85 65.69 69.51 2032 88.77
19 5290 55.92 5921 62.80 6660 70.44 2033 91.18
20 53.80 56.84 60.13 63.69 67.52 71.39 2034 93.95
2035 97.65
2036 101,29
2037 103.55
2038 10821
2039 113.75
2040 11956
Note “Other projects”refers to projects other than wind,solar,non-seasonal hydro,and seasonal hydro projects.These “Other projects’
may include (but are not limited to):cogeneration,biomass,biogas,landfill gas,or geothermal projects.
Note The rates shown in this table have been computed using the U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy
Outlook 2015,released April 14,2015.See Annual Energy Outlook 2015,Table 3.8 Energy Prices by Sector-Mountain at
http Ilwww eia gov/forecasts/aeo/tables_ref.cfm#supplemenV
PACIFICORP Page 5