201003312009 IRP Update.pdf

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March 31, 2010 20'ß 1'~R 3 \ M'\ 9: 20
201 South Main, Suite 2300
Salt Lake City, Utah 84111
VI OVERNIGHT DELIVERY
Idaho Public Utilties Commission
472 West Washington
Boise, ID 83702
Att: Jean Jewell
Commission Secretar
RE: Case No. PAC-E-09-06
PacifiCorp's 2008 Integrated Resource Plan Update
Dear Ms. Jewell,
Please find enclosed an original and two (2) copies ofPacifiCorp's 2008 Integrated Resource
Plan ("IRP") Update ("2009 IRP Update"). Copies of the report are available electronically and
will be posted on PacifiCorp's website, at ww.pacificorp.com. The Company's 2009 IRP was
filed with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") on May 29, 2009.
The 2009 IRP Update is submitted to the Commission pursuat to the IR gudelines issued in
Order No. 27835, as modified by Order No. 30262. The Company plans on filing its next IR no
later than March 31, 2011.
The 2009 IRP Update is being submitted for informational puroses only. Since the Company
expects to fie its next IR in March 2011, it does not request acknowledgment of its 2009 IR
Update. No action is required by the Commission.
It is respectfully requested that all formal correspondence and Sta requests regarding this filing
be addressed to the followig:
By E-mail (preferred):datareguest~acificorp.com
By regular mail:Data Request Response Center
PacifiCorp
825 NE Multnomah, Suite 2000
Portland, OR 97232
If there are informal inquiries concerning the filing, please contact Pete Waren, Manager
Integrated Resource Planng at [phone] or Ted Weston, Idao Regulatory Affairs
Manger at [phone].
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
March 31, 2010
Page 2
(lci~~Jeffey K. Larsen ~
Vice President, Reguation
Enclosures
cc: Terr Carlock, Idao Public Utilities Commssion (w/o enclosures)
Rick Sterling, Idao Public Utilities Commssion (w/o enclosures)
Dave Schune, Idaho Public Utilities Commission (w/o enclosures)
Jim Yost, State of Idaho - Governor's Offce (w/o enclosures)
Mark Stokes, Idaho Power Company (w/o enclosures)
Nancy Kelly, Western Resource Advocates (w/o enclosures)
Randall Budge, Racine, Olson, Nye, Budge & Bailey (w/o enclosures)
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March 3 I , 20 I 0 Pacific Power I Rocky Mountan Power I PacifiCorp Energy
This 2008 Integrated Resource Plan Update (2008 IR Update) Report is based upon the
best available information at the time of preparation. The IRP action plan wil be
implemented as described herein, but is subject to change as new inormation becomes
available or as circumstances change. It is PacifiCorp's intention to revisit and refresh
the IRP acton plan no less frequently than annually. Any updated IR action plan wil
be submitted to the State Commissions for inormational purposes or as required by
their respectve IRP preparation and fiing rules.
For more inormation, contact:
PacifiCorp
IR Resource Plang
825 N.E. Multnomah, Suite 600
Portland, Oregon 97232
[phone]
IRP(gPacifi Corp. com
http:llwww.PacifCorp.com
This report is printed on recycled paper
Cover Photos (Left to Right):
Wind: Foote Creek 1
Hydroelectrc Geeration: Yale Reserir (Washington)
Demand side management: Agricultural Irrgation
Thrml-Gas: Currant Creek Power Plant
Tranmission: South Central Wyoming line
PaciCorp 2008 IRP Update Table Of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... 1
Tables and Figues ...................................................................................................................... 2
Executive Summar .................................................................................................................... 4
1. Int:oduction .......................................................................................................................... 14
2. Planing Environment .-....................................................................................................... 15
Business Plan Development................................................................................................. 15
Resource Procurement Update............................................................................................16
All Source Request for Proposals..................................................................................... 16
Renewables Requests for Proposals ................................................................................ 16
Demand-side Management Requests for Proposals .............................................. ....... 16
Emissions and Climate Change Policy .... .......................... .............. .................. ................. 17
Currently Regulated Emissions ....................................................................................... 17
Climate Change ....... .......... .......... .............................................................. .... ..................... 18
Environmental Protecton Agency's Advance Notice of Public Rulemaking....... 19
Impacts and Sources ........... .................. .......... ...................................................... ......... 21
EPRI analysis of Waxman-Markey.....................'.........................................................21
Energy Gateway Transmission Program Plang .......................................................... 22
3. Resource Needs Assessment Update ...............................................................................25
Load Forecast ~,.;..................................................................................................................... 25
Changes to Existig and Firm Planed Resources ........................................................... 27
Existig Supply-Side Resources.......................................................................................27
Existig Demand-side Management ............................................................................... 28
Fin Planed Supply-Side Resources ............................................................................. 29
Fir Planed Demand-side Management ..................................................................... 29
Updated Capacity Balance ...................................................................................................30
Historical DSM Adjustment .... .......................... .......... ...... ........ .... .............. .............. .... ... 30
4. Modeling Assumptions Update ........................................................................................ 36
Natural Gas and Power Market Price Updates................................................................. 36
Natural Gas Market Prices........... .......... ................ .............. ............ ........ ......................... 36
Power Market Prices.......................................................................................................... 37
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Cost and Compliance ............................................................ 39
Transmission Topology ........................................................................................................40
Front Office Transactions .................................................... ............................ ..................... 41
Class 2 DSM Supply Curves ................................................................................................ 42
Resource Capital Costs .... ...... ........ ............ .... .... .................. ...... ........ ................ .......... ......... 42
Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance....................................................................... 43
5. Portfolio Development ....................................................................................................... 45
PadffCorp 200BIRP Update Table Of Contents
Preliminary 2010 Business Plan Scenario....................'....................................................... 45
2010 Business Plan Submissions..........................................................................................46
Resource Modeling Strategies............................... ...................... ..................................... 46
Thermal Resources.. ....................................................................................................... 46
Class 1 Demand-side management ............................................................................. 46
Class 2 Demand-side Management.............................................................................47
Renewable Resources ...... ....................................................................... ....................... 48
Front Office Tranactions..............................................................................................48
Combined Heat and Power ............................... ........................................................... 48
Business Plan Portfolio ......................................................................................................... 48
Compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standard Requirements.................................... 54
6. Action Plan Update..............................................................................................................55
Appendix A - Additional Load Forecast and Resource Portfolio Information ............ 67
October 2009 Load Forecast ... ....... .............. .............. ............ ............................................... 67
Detailed 2010 Business Plan Portfolio ................................... ............................................. 68
TABLES AND FIGURES
Table ES.1 - 2010 Business Plan Portolio...............................................................................................7
Table ES.2 - IRP Acton Plan Update ...................................................................................................... 8
Table 2.1- Comparion of Waxman-Markey and Kerr-Boxer bils................................................ 19
Table 3.1- Forecasted Anual Load Growth, 2010 through 2019 (Megawatt-hours).................... 25
Table 3.2 - Forecasted Annual Coincidental Peak Load (Megawatts) ............................................. 25
Table 3.3 - Anual Load Growth Chge: October 200 Forecast Less February 2009 Forecast. 26
Table 3~4 - Anual Coincidental Peak Growt Change: October 2009 Forecast Less February
2009 Forecast............................................................................................................................................. 26
Table 3.5 - Renewable Resource Additions .........................................................................................27
Table 3.6 - Contract Additions: Front Office Tranactions ................................................................ 28
Table 3.7 - Changes to Firm-Planned Resources.................................................................................29
Table 3.8 - Historical DSM Adjustment to Coincident Peak Forecast.............................................. 30
Table 3.9 - Capacity Load and Resource Balance, Megawatts (12% Target Reserve Magi)......33
Table 3.10 - 2010 Business Plan Capacity Balance Less 2008 IR Capacity Balance, Megawatts. 34
Table 4.1 - Comparison of Carbon Dioxide Emisions Modelig Assumptions ............................40
Table 4.2 - Front Offce Tranacton Anual Limt Assumptions..................................................... 42
Table 4.3 - Resource Capital Cost Comparon. 2010 Business Plan vs. 2008 IR..........................43
Table 5.1 - Class 1 Demand-side Management Cumulative Additions...........................................46
Table 5.2 - New Oass 1 Demand-side Management Capacity Comparison ..................................47
Table 5.3 - 2010 Business Plan Portolio ...............................................................................................49
Table 5.4 - 2008 IR Preferred Portfolio ...............................................................................................49
Table 5.5 - Resource Differences, 2010 Business Plan Less 2008 IR Preferred Portolio ..............50
2
PacifiCorp 200BIRP Update Table Of Contents
Table 5.6 - Portolio Load and Resource Balance with Additions (Megawatt)............................. 52
Table 5.7 - Differences: Load and Resource Balance 2008 IR versus 2008 IR Update
(Megawatts) ..............................................................................................................................................53
Table 6.1- IR Action Plan Update.......................................................................................................56
Table A.1 - Post-DSM: Anual Forecasted Loads in Megawatt-hours ............................................ 67
Table A.2 - Post-DSM: Anual Forecasted Coincidental Peak Loads in Megawatts..................... 67
Table A.3 - Class 2 DSM Megawatt-hours included in Post-DSM Load Forecast, 2010-2019 ...... 68
Table A.4 - 2010 Business Plan Resource Portolio (2010-2028) ........................................................ 69
Figure ES.1- Capacity Position Comparison, 2008 IRP versus the 2010 Business Plan.................. 6
Figure 2.1- Envionmental Regulatory Timeline at the Federal Level...........................................18
Figure 3.1- Capacity Position Comparison, 2008 IR versus the 2010 Business Plan................... 31
Figure 3.2 - System Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 2010 Business Plan........................... 32
Figure 4.1- Henr Hub Natual Gas Prices (Nomil) .....................................................................37
Figure 4.2 - Average Anual Flat Palo Verde Electrcity Prices. ...................................................... 38
Figure 4.3 - Average Anual Heavy Load Hour Palo Verde Electricity Prices.. .................. .......... 38
Figure 4.4 - Average Anual Flat Mid-Columbia Electcity Prices................................................. 39
Figure 4.5 - Tranmission Topology .....................................................................................................41
Figure 5.1- Anual State and Federal RPS position Forecasts .........................................................54
3
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Executve Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Ths 2008 Integrated Resource Plan (IR) update report descrbes resource plang
activities that occured subsequent to the fiing of the 2008 Integrated Resource Plan in
May 2009, and presents the Companýs revised 10-year resource portfolio and IRP
acton plan.i These actvities centered on preparation of the Company's 10-year business
plan for the period 2010-2019 ("2010 business plan").
Preparation of the 2010 business plan occurred against the back-drop of the economic
recession and lower load growth; a tight credit market; the contiuing need for large
capital expenditures to support load growth, system reliabilty, emission controls and
other regulatory mandates; and ongoing uncertainty regarding government policies on
climate change and clean energy. As a consquence, PacifCorp reexamied the need
and tiing for capital investments and, where appropriate and feasible, the business
plan eliminates or defers resource investments.
Against ths backdrop, allocating capital for transmission expansion is a precondition
for maintaing transmission system reliabilty, supportg future load obligations, and
accessing new and existig resource areas. PacifiCorp also assumed that makng
investments in environmental controls for sulfur oxides (SOx) and nitrous oxides (NOx)
was needed unless the emission control requirements are modifed.
Another key business plang consideration is the progress and challenges associated
with the Energy Gateway transmission expansion project. Construction of the first
segment (Populus to Terminal) is underway and remains on schedule for completion in
2010. In an effort to maintain schedule flexibilty for future segments, in-servce dates
have been updated to provide flexibilty whie maintaing the urgency to complete the
project. These date adjustments, combined with the lack of additional transmision
capacity on the existig system, prompted deferral of planed wid resources
dependent on the availabilty of new tranmission. PaciCorp wil contiue its focus on
maintaing system reliabilty and efficient use of new and existig tranmission as
additional operational experience is gained with large-scale and rapid wind penetration
in certain areas of the system.
As an extension of ongoing transmission planng efforts, Idaho Power and PacifiCorp
also recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") tht outles a process
to fuy define and develop joint ownership of extensive tranmission facilties,
i Action pla revisions reflect modified resource strtegies reflecting the curent plang environment, as well as
revised or new action items adopted by the Company as par of the 2008 IR acknowledgment proceedgs.
4
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Executive Summary
including the Boardman to Hemingway transmission project and the Gateway West
Project. The two companes already share a partnership on Gateway West. Joint
ownership of the Hemigway to Boardman project is a new development and is
expected to replace furter near-term review and consideration of the Hemingway to
Captai Jack project listed as "under review" in the 2008 IRP.
At least two factors could change the Company's decision to defer additional renewable
energy resources until 2017. First, as the particulars regarding federal emissions
reduction regulations become clearer, it may be prudent to resume adding renewable
energy sooner than 2017. Second, the Company remains open to acquiring renewable
energy projects that represent economically attactve and unique opportties for its
customers. This aspect of the updated IR action plan remains unchanged.
With the 2010 business plan load forecast prepared in October 2009 (showig
reductions in anual system loads from 2.2 million megawatt-hours in 2010 to 0.6
milion megawatt-hours by 2019 relative to the 2008 IRP load forecast prepared in
February 2009), the system becomes short on capacity in 2012 rather than 2011 without
additional resources (Figure ES.l)
Development of the 2010 business plan resource portfolio was supported by the use of
the Company's capacity expanion optiization model, System Optimizer, which helped
determine the timing and type of gas resources and firm market purchases based on
updates to forecasted loads, resources, market prices, and other model inputs.
5
Pad~Corp 200BIRP Update Executve Summary
Figure ES.I - Capacity Position Comparison, 2008 IRP versus the 20 I 0 Business
Plan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1,000
(2,500)
. 2010 Business Plan
500
o
(500)
(1,000)
~ (1,500)
(2,000)
(3,000)
(3,500).2008IRP
(4,000)
",
The signicant resource changes with respect to the 2008 IRP preferred portfolio
include the followig:
. Deferral of the need for new natural gas resources from 2014 and 2016 to 2015 and
2018
. Postponement of wind resource acquisition in the 2012-2016 tieframe
)- Ths deferral does not impact the Company's abilty to satisfy state and potential
federal renewable portfolio standard requirements thoughout ths period.
)- PacifiCorp has exceeded the Mid American Energy Holdings Company
commitment to have 1,400 MW of economic renewable resources in the portfolio
by 2015; with resources acquired after 2003, PaciiCorp is expected to surpass ths
commitment by 333 MW by the end of 2010.
6
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Execute Summary
· A 170 MW reduction in the 200 MW planed expansion of the Utah Cool Keeper
residential air conditionig control program from 2010 through 20192, which has
been generally offset by the proposed introduction of a Commercial Curtailment
product and increased participation forecasts for the Company's irrgation load
control programs.
Table ES.l summarizes the 2010 business plan portfolio resources, showig the years for
which the resources are available to meet summer peak loads.
Table ES.I - 20 I 0 Business Plan Portolio
16 20 11 37
227 200 160
18 6 5
25 5 15 20 10 3
65 65 66 68 68 49 50 51
200 338 519 300 300 350
4 12 125 17 18 5 4540 40 39 40 40 37 37 27 3531.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 8.
40 594 704 494 623
394 342 344 149 125 708 136
604 932 1,223 794 923394 342 948 1,081 1,3 1,503 1,059 1 08 1,357 1,087
.. The 2011 wind resourre is the Top of the World project (200 MW), with an in-serviæ date of December 31,
2010.
.. ..Oter Class 1 DSM consists of (1) irgation and residential air conditionig control, and (2) commercial
cuent, including customer-owned standby geeration.
Table ES.2 presents the updated 2008 IR Acton Plan. The Acton Plan table in Chapter
6 indicates changes to the version published in the 2008 IRP.
2 The Uta legislatue passed a bil in March 2010 that allows COL Keeper to be designed as an opt-out program.
PacifiCorp will revisit the progr's growt assumptions for the next business plan and IR as a rest.
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13
PaciCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter I . Introducton
I. INTRODUCTION
Ths 2008 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Report describes resource planing
actvities that occurred subsequent to the fiing of the 2008 Integrated Resource Plan in
May 2009, and presents the Companýs revised 10-year resource portfolio and IR
acton plan. These actvities centered on preparation of the Company's 10-year business
plan for the period 2010-2019 ("2010 business plan").
To support business plan development, PacifiCorp used its capacity expanion
optiization model, System Optimizer, to help refine the resource portfolio based on
updates to forecasted loads, resources, market prices, and other model inputs. The
updated resource portolio also incorporates resource deciions made outside of an
optimization modeling context. These resource decsions reflect capital expenditure and
operating cost constraints developed by the corporate fiance departent with input
from the PacifiCorp business units (PaciCorp Energy, Pacifc Power, and Rocky
Mountain Power). The financial constraints ensure that the business plan is fiancially
supportable and affordable to customers, while at the same tie complying with al
regulations and the MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company (MEHC) PacifiCorp
acquisition commitments.
Ths report first describes the planing environment for 2009, focusing on PaciCorp's
business plang d,evelopment, resource procurement intiatives, emissions/climate
change reguatory òùt1ook, and the Energy Gateway transmission plang (Chapter 2).
Next, Chapters 3 and 4 describe the changes to key inputs and assumptions relative to
those used for the 2008 IRP. The updated high-level resource portfolio is then presented
along .with associated changes to the 2008 IR action plan and Energy Gateway
transmission strategy action plan (Chapters 5 and 6). Appendix A consists of additional
load forecast inormation and a more detailed resource portfolio table.
14
PacipCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 2 - Planning environment
2. PLANNING ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS PLAN DEVELOPMENT
PacifiCorp's 2010 business plang process began in April 2009 with preparation of a
preliminary business plan scenario. Preparation of the formal business plan submission
to MEHC ("version I") and a revised plan submission ("version 2") was conducted in
May-August and August-October of 2009, respectvely. The 2010 business plan was
approved by the MEHC Board on December 9,2009.
A main finding of the 2010 business plang process was that given the current 'load
forecast and the economic downturn, the operating and capital budgets supportg the
2009 business plan would not maintain a capital strcture that is optial for both
customers and the Company, and would increase rate pressure on customers. For
example, assessment of the intial projected capital budget with resource acquisitions
and resultant cash flows indicated difficulty in maintaing curent debt ratings. As a
consequence, PacifCorp reexamed the need and tiing for capital investments and,
where appropriate and feasible, the business plan elimiates or defers investments. The
revised capital budget included expenditure reductons on the order of $3.5 bilion in
the early years of, the plan, relative to the budget established for the 2009 business plan.
Againt ths backdrop, allocatig capital for transmission expansion is a precondition
for maitaig transmission system reliabilty, supportig future load obligations, and
accessing new and existig resource areas. PacifCorp alo assumed that makig
investients in environmental controls for sulfur oxides (SOx) and nitrous oxides (NOx)
was needed uness the emission control requirements are modifed.
Another key business plang consideration is the progress and challenges associated
with the Energy Gateway transmission expansion project. In an effort to maitain
schedule flexibilty, in-service dates have been updated to provide flexibilty whie
maintaing the urgency to complete the project. These date adjustments, combined
with the lack of additional tranmission capacity on the existig system, prompted
deferral of planed wid resources dependent on the availabilty of new transmission.
PacifiCorp wil contiue its focus on maitainig system reliabilty and effcient use of
new and existing tranmission as additional operational experience is gained with
large-scale and rapid wind penetration in certain areas of the system.
15
PacifiCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
At least two factors could change the Company's decision to defer additional renewable
energy resources until 2017. First, as the partcuars regarding federal emissions
reduction regulations become clearer, it may be prudent to resume adding renewable
energy sooner than 2017. Second, the Company remai open to acquiring renewable
energy projects that represent economically attactive and unque opportnities for its
customers. Ths aspect of the updated IRP action plan remains unchaged.
RESOURCE PROCUREMENT UPDATE
All Source Request for Proposals
PacifiCorp issued its latest all-source Request for Proposals (RFP) on December 2, 2009.
This RFP represents the successor to the all-source RFP ("2008 All-Source RFP") that
was suspended on April 6, 2009, and seeks up to 1,500 MW of base-load, intermediate-
load, and thrd-quarter market purchases (front office tranactions) on a system-wide
basis for the 2014-to-2016 period. The minimum eligible fixed term is five years for the
proposals, with a minimum dependable capacity of 100 MW. Exceptions to these term
and capacity limtations include (1) a power purchase agreement ("PPA") or tollig
service agreement ("TSA") not backed by an asset, (2) load curtailment, (3) PURP A
Qualifing Facilities, and (4) dispatchable/schedulable renewable resources. Proposals
were due March 1, 2010. Procuement decisions for ths RFP are expected in January
2011.
Renewables Requests for Proposals
PacifiCorp decided to not issue a RFP for renewable resources during 2010 after
assessing the capital budget and the conditions impactg renewable energy
development such as transmission availabilty. The Company's revised renewables
resource strategy is summarized in Chapter 6.
Demand-side Management Requests for Proposals
The Company released a comprehensive demand-side management RFP (2008 DSM
RFP) in November 2008. The intial 2008 DSM RFP work schedule proved to be too
ambitious given the number of bidder proposa, Utah DSM program recovery figs,
American Reinvestment and Recovery coordiation efforts, compliance reporting for
Washington Intiative 937, and other regional actvities. In 2009 PaciCorp evaluated all
proposals received and developed a short list of proposals. Those vendors having
proposals on the short-list were asked to provide an additional year for the company to
fully evaluate and process the short-listed proposal. The revised timelie for the
remaing short-listed proposals is fourth quarer 2010.
16
PacifCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
The Company completed an RFP for program evaluations of legacy products in 2009,
and selected Cadmus, Inc. to perform the work. Draft evaluations are scheduled for
mid-year 2010, and at that time, wil be provided to interested partes for review and
comment. Current agreements for engieerig resources in support of commercial,
industrial and agricultural program delivery expires in June 2010. The RFP to re-
procure these services, as well as for general program evaluation services, is scheduled
to be released during the first quarter of 2010. The RFP for continuation of Utah and
Idaho load management program services is also scheduled to be released in the first
quarter of 2010 as are RFPs for the delivery of the company's refrigeration recycling and
Home Energy Savings programs.
EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
Currently Regulated Emissions
There are currently a multitude of environmental regulations which are in various
stages of being promulgated, as outlined on the timeline below (Figure 2.1). Each of
these regulations wil have an impact on the utility industr and could affect
environmental control requirements, limit operations, change dispatch, and could
ultiately determine the economic viabilty of PacifCorp's generation assets. The U.S.
Environmental Protecton Agency has undertaken a multi-pronged approach to
minize air, land, and water-based environmental impacts. Aside from potential
greenhouse gas regulation, no single regulation is likely to materially impact the
industry; however, in concert they are expected to have a signficant impact - especially
on the coal-fueled generatig units that supply approximately 50% of the nation's
electrcity.
17
PacßCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
Figure 2.1 - Environmental Regulatory Timeline at the Federal Level
\
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I Ozone I SOzBeginning PrimaCAiR Phse I Reced NAQS Eff GuidelineSeasol NOx Ozon Propsed CAIR Final rule expted Effue GuidelineCap NAQS Reac Fina CAR SOz Complianc 3-5 yrsCA ..- __ _ :-NM ¡""""
- :- \¥-Tj~ l~~E~L-___---:200 2011 2012 203 204 205 206 207
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Rule fo NMQS ( 06) Deignatins Phse H Anal CAiR PhaseCCSs Revision SOz & NOx Caps II SesonaMg HAPS MACT Ben Comia . , NOx Cap
HA MACT fin rule Reir Compliance wi HAPS MACTPropo pr ex uner Finl CCB CAIR Comiance 3 yrRule for rue Finl EPA Ru (g Replacent af final ruCCSs Nonm wat mo RuleMagem 316() prop De do motorue exped closu. dr ash ~
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Climate Change
On June 26, 2009,the,U.S. House of Representatives passed The American Clean Energy
and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) authored by Congressmen Henry Waxman of
Californa and Edward Markey of Massachusetts. The Bil seeks to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions via a complex cap and trade system affectg the vast majority of the
United States economy. Although the cap and trade requirements would generally
apply only to sources responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of at least 25,000 metrc
tons per year, the Bil sets no emissions theshold for power plants and certai other
industries.
The cap consists of a series of annually decreasing limits on overall United States
greenhouse gas emissions, begig with a 3 percent reduction in 2012 (compared to
2005 levels), reachig a 17 percent reducton by 2020, and ultimately an 83 percent
reducton by 2050. The Bil would intially apply to electric utilties, fuel refineries, and
certain industries (representig 66 percent of total United States emissions), with
additional industrial sources covered in 2014, and natural gas distributors added in
2016, ultimately briging about 85 percent of the United States greenhouse gas
emissions with the cap and trade system. The U.S. Environmental Protecton Agency
would distribute emission allowances (collectvely equal to the anual overall emisions
cap) among affected emitters, who must anualy hold a sufficient number of
18
Paci~Corp 20081RP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
allowances and offset credits to equal their actal emissions. Electrc utilities would
initially receive 35 percent of the available allowances for free; however, the free
allocation for ths sector is completely phased out between 2026 and 2030, with a
transition to a full auction.
The bil also allows capped sources to use up to two billion metric tons of domestic and
interntional offset credits to meet a portion of their anual compliance obligations.
Offsets are generated by projects that reduce, avoid, or sequester emissions that would
otherwise not be subject to the emissions cap.
On November 5,2009, a substantially similar bil, the Clean Energy Jobs and American
Power Act (S. 1733) authored by Senators Boxer of Californa and Kerry of
Massachusetts, passed the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Some of
the key differences between the Senate bil and the House bil are listed in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1 - Comparison of Waxman. Markey and Kerry.Boxer bils
17% reducton by 2020 (from 2005)
Small deficit reducton pool in early years
2012 Electric Sector allocation: 2.0 billion
20% reducton by 2020 (from 2005)
Deficit reducton pool of 10% . 25%
2012 Electrc Sector allocation: 1.7 billion
Standard aucton pricèfloor:$10 (2009)
Strategic auction price floor: $28 (200$)
Standard aucton price floor: $10 (2005$)
Strategic auction price floor: $28 (2005$)
Domestic offsets: 1.0 bilon metric tons/year
Internàtional offsets: 1.0 bilion metric tons/year
Domestic offsets: 1.5 billion metrc tons/year
International offsets: 0.5 bilion metric tons/year
Environmental Protecton Agency's Advance Notice of Public Rulemaking
On an independent, yet parallel path, the U.S. Environmental Protecton Agency (EPA)
is also pursuig the potential regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. On April 2, 2007,
the U.S. Supreme Court held that greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide,
are ai pollutants covered by the Clean Ai Act. (Massachusett v. Environmental
Protection Agency). The Supreme Court held that the Environmental Protecton
Agency was required to determine whether or not emissions of greenhouse gases from
new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution which may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.
In April 2009, the Environmental Protecton Agency responded to the Supreme Court s
holdig by proposing a finding that greenhouse gases do contrbute to air pollution that
19
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
may endanger public health or welfare. The Environmental Protecton Agency finalized
its Endangerment Finding on December 7, 2009. The agency also expects to issue final
regulations under the Clean Air Act to control greenhouse gas emissions from light
duty vehicles at the end of March 2010. The EPA has taken the position that such an
action wil trgger Clean Air Act permittg requirements for stationary sources under
the New Source Review/prevention of Signficant Deterioration, and Title V Operating
Permit programs for greenhouse gas emissions.
To address the signficant number of stationary sources that wil become subject to
regulation under the New Source Review/prevention of Signicant Deterioration and
Title V operating permit program in March 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency
on October 27, 2009 issued a proposed Prevention of Signcant Deterioration and Tite
V greenhouse gas emissions tailorig rule to "tailor" the major source applicabilty
thresholds for greenhouse gas emissions under the Prevention of Signficant
Deterioration and Title V programs of the Clean Air Act and to set a Prevention of
Signicant Deterioration signicance level for greenhouse gas emissions. If the New
Source Review/prevention of Signficant Deterioration programs were applied literally
under the Clean Air Act, the thesholds would be set at extremely low levels-up to 250
tons-for greenhouse gas emissions. To avoid the situation in which very small sources
of greenhouse gas emissions are required to obtai permts, based on the legal doctres
of "absurd results" and "admstrative necessity, ths proposed rue would phase in
the applicabiltyilesholds for both the Prevention of Signficant Deterioration and
Title V programs for sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The first phase, which
would last six years, would establish a temporar level for the Prevention of Signicant
Deterioration and Title V applicability thesholds at 25,000 tons per year carbon dioxide
equivalent, and a temporary Prevention of Signcant Deterioration signicance level
for greenhouse gas emissions of between 10,000 and 25,000 tons per year carbon dioxide
equivalent. Afer the first six years, the Environmental Protection Agency would
conduct a study to assess ths program and potentially revise the applicabilty and
signifcance level thesholds.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to fialize its "Taiorig Rule" prior to or
at the same time it fializes its light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions standards in
March 2010. Sources with the potential to emit greenhouse gas emissions above the
established thesholds will be required to obtain permits if they constrct a new source
or modif an existig source. Likewise, existig sources wil be required to incorporate
greenhouse gas emisions in their Title V operatig permits. Sources canot currently
determine what constitutes the required Best Available Control Techology for new or
modified sources, nor can they anticipate how the Title V permt requirements may
impact their faciities.
20
PacifìCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
Impact and Sources
Relatively speaking, the potential requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
could have a profound impact on PaciiCorp's generation fleet. In the near term (e.g.,
though at least 2020), to reach the emissions caps proposed in the federal bils,
PacifiCorp would need to consider convertig coal units to bum natual gas and
retiring other coal units and replacing them with lower carbon emittg resources and
expanded DSM. In the longer term, replacement of baseload fossil-fueled plants with
non-emittg baseload resources currently in development (e.g., carbon-sequestered
thermal units, new generation nuclear unts, and renewable generation supplemented
with battery storage) wil be necessary to acheve reduction targets such as those in the
federal bils, assumig contiuation of the energy policy that requires elecric utilities
provide service on demand in the quantity demanded.4
Whle federal legislation requirig reducton in greenhouse gas emissions coupled with
a mandatory allowance trading market would be expected to have the greatest fiancial
impact on PacifiCorp, the potential for impacts resultig from the changes in New
Source Review/prevention of Signficant Deterioration provisions from the greenhouse
gas tailoring rule are also likely to have an inuence on capitaVconstruction project,
even when installing emissions controls. The requirement to conduct a Best Available
Control Techology review and implement additional effciency measures or otherwise
reduce greenhouse g~ emissions is likely to have a chlling effec on future projects.
"',
EPRI analyis of Waxman-Markey
In 2009, the Electrc Power Research Institute (EPRI) conducted a broad-brush study to
identify and analyze the liely effects of H.R. 2454 for U.S. generators and customers.
The study relied upon the NEMS (National Energy Modelig System) used by the U.S.
Department of Energy's Energy Inormation Agency (EIA) and their Anual Energy
Outlooks and policy analyses. NEMS and detailed EIA results are publicly available.
4 In addition to the costs of replacing and retrofittng coal and natual gas generation, bill such as
Waxan-Markey and Boxer-Kerr would impose an additional cost tht ultiately wil be borne by
customers. Th added cost is the cost of purchasing emisions alowanæs, even for emisions tht are
below the cap. Although the bills provide for some alocation of "free" alowances, PaciCorp is expeted
to receive less than 50% of the alowances it needs even if the Company is able to reuæ emision to the
level of the cap, and the expected shortfal increases each year. Beging in 2012, the fiandal impact of
such a shortall is estiated to be $581 milon to $683 millon per year (assumg $25 per allowanæ), and
increasing each year thereafr. In order to mitigate thes signcat allowanæ costs, PadfiCorp would
need to make signficat changes in its generation portolio.
21
PadßCorp 20081RP Update Oiapter 2 - Planning Environment
EPRI has worked extensively with NEMS for over a decade. For the study, EPRI applied
the model to represent Waxman-Markey on behalf of PacifiCorp, using PacifiCorp's
assumptions on power plant costs (vintage 2008). The PacifiCorp/EPRI team then
established set scenarios with a goal to better understand the role of modelig
assumptions in assessing climate policy impact on energy sector. A reference case was
defined as having a full 2 billion tons of offsets availabilty, plus three offsets sensitivity
cases that phase-in offsets from zero:
. Case 1 "Plentifu" 2 Bilion Tons by 2030
. Case 2 "Scarce" 1 Bilion Tons by 2030
. Case 3 "Very Scarce" half Billion Tons by 2030
Waxman-Markey allows up to 2 bilion tons/year of offset use (50%-50% split between
domestic and international sources with some opportty for substitution). Offset
quantities allowed in legislation far exceed experiences in Europe's cOi trading system.
If low-cost offsets are unavailable in quantities approved by the program, much higher
allowance prices wil be required to meet cap. The study also concluded that market
and regulatory uncertainty in offset supply dominates all other uncertainties in
impacting the price of carbon. Abundant offsets allow the economy to meet the
emissions cap with only liited abatement from the regulated entities covered by the
cap-and-trade program. If offsets are lited, most of the abatement is done by the
electric sector throii~h the increased use of natural gas and the increased intallation of
wind generation. .
A PowerPoint presentation summanzing study results and entitled "Preliminary
Analysis of Waxman-Markey (H.R.2454) Using NEMS for PacifCorp" is available for
downoading from PacifCorp'sIRP website.s
EN§RGY GATEWAY TRANSMISSION PROGRAM PLANNING
The Energy Gateway transmission project remain a crtical component of the short and
long-term resource acquisition plans, representig a precondition for maintaig
transmission system reliability, supportig futue load obligations, and accessing new
and existig resource areas.
s-he link to the document is:
htt://ww.pacificom.comicontentidapacificom/docÆnergy Soures/tegrted Resource Planvionmenti
M-NEMS-Roadshow-dr-9-11-Q9.pdf.
22
PaciffCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
Construction of the first segment (Populus to Terminal) is underway and remains on
schedule for completion in 2010. Populus to Terminal is a new double-circuit 345
kilovolt ("kV") tranmission line from the Populus substation near Downey, Idaho to
the Terminal substation in Salt Lake City, Utah. The Populus to Terminal lie wil be
placed in service in two phases. The first phase from the Ben Lomond substation (near
Ogden, Utah) to the Terminal substation wil be in service by June 2010, and the second
phase from the Populus substation to the Ben Lomond substation wil be in service by
December 31, 2010.
As an extension of ongoing transmission planng efforts, Idaho Power and PacifiCorp
also recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") that outles a process
to fully defie and develop joint ownership of extensive tranmission facilties,
indudingthe Boardman to Hemingway tranmission project and the Gateway West
Project. The two companes already share a partnership on Gateway West. Joint
ownership of the Hemingway to Boardman project is a new development and is
expected to replace further near-term review and consideration of the Hemingway to
Captain Jack project listed as "under review" in the 2008 IRP.
Despite ths progress, permittg and other related factors require that in-services dates
on other segments of Energy Gateway contiue to remain flexible. In an effort to
maintai schedule flexibilty, in-service dates have been updated to allow flexibilty
whie maintaing tle urgency to complete the project. The 2010 business plan and
associated resource acquisition decisions account for these date adjustments. As issues
are addressed and uncertainties eliminated, the Company wil contiue to adjust its
project planing accordigly.
Table 2.2 summarizes the Energy Gateway target in-service date ranges with respect to
the dates cited in the 2008 IRP. These date changes are also reflected in the revised
transmission acton items cited in Chapter 6.
Table 2.2 - Energy Gateway Project Completion Date Changes
2013
2013-2014
2014-2016
2016-2018
2017-2019
23
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 2 - Planning Environment
In regard to the Walla Walla to McNary project (Segment A), durig 2009 PacifiCorp
received requests for transmission service, requiring that the Company proceed with
the Wallula, Washigton to Umatila, Oregon porton of the Walla Walla to McNary
Project tranmission lie. This section of the Walla Walla to McNary Project is
approximately 30 miles in lengt and wil be built on a 125-foot-wide right of way
connectg the existing Wallula substation and the McNary substation at Umatila.
Constrcting thi portion of the line wil provide the capacity to add new renewable
energy to the system, improve servce to customers and improve the reliabilty of the
regional transmission system.
PacifiCorp wil work with property owners to obtain rights of way for the Walula-
McNary transmission lie segment by the end of 2010. Constrction is expected to
begi soon thereafter, with plan to brig the new lie into service in late 2011. At ths
point, the Company has not determined when it wil construct the Walla Walla to
Wallula portion of the McNary Project.
24
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
3. RESOURCE NEEDS ASSESSMENT UPDATE
LOAD FORECAST
For the final 2010 business plan, PacifiCorp updated its load forecast in October 2009.
Relative to the load forecast prepared in February 2009, PacifiCorp system sales and
coincident peak dropped for the plang period, with the largest declines occurring in
the early years. The main driver for the residential, commercial and industrial class
declines is the effect of the economic downturn.
Tables 3.1 and 3.2 report the October 2009 anual load and coincidental peak load
forecasts, respectively. Note that this forecast data excludes load reducton projecons
from new energy efficiency measures (Class 2 DSM), since such load reductions are
included as resources in the System Optimizer modeL. Tables 3.3 and 3.4 show the
forecast changes relative to the February 2009 load forecast for loads and coincident
system peaks, respectvely. 6
Table 3.1 - Forecasted Annual Load Growth, 20 i 0 through 2019 (Megawatt-hours)
2010 59A03,758 14,146,530 4,483,577 946,287 24,294,698 10,022,709 3,311,467 2,198,489
2011 61,110,064 '1~,380A55 4,512,495 972,669 24,943,199 10,352,917 3,72,405 2,225,925
2012 63,264,583 14,84,483 4,563,202 1,002,346 25,968,093 10,837,133 3,796,971 2,253,356
2013 65,126,386 15,062,869 4,571,700 1,015,802 26,918,298 11,357,516 3,919,407 2,280,793
2014 66,912,337 15,205,085 4,590,154 1,026,562 27,795,597 11,896,327 4,09,398 2,308,214
2015 68,375,219 15,303,232 4,607,980 1,036,984 28,508,281 12,454,198 4,128,899 2,335,64
2016 69,814,947 15,423,718 4,637,827 1,050,64 29,306,675 12,861,601 4,171,42 2,363,061
2017 70,674,381 15,44,754 4,643,972 1,058,194 29,804,384 13,128,929 4,201,64 2,390,500
2018 71,745,215 15,535,683 4,676,978 1,072,219 30,382,350 13,412,924 4,247,146 2,417,916
2019 72,870,856 15,648,922 4,708,154 1,086,040 30,966,450 13,723,600 4,292,33 2,445,357
Table 3.2 - Forecasted Annual Coincidental Peak Load (Megawatt)
i.~¡~r" f''''w~¡, ,¡¡,,-, I'l'''-' .", c .fÎiI" q ," ~ ii'. ,
'"1~S" ,~~.J~~,,k~)""~"'~'i-jj'i~ 1(~~~ !jlr,l;i"',,~~~-l,",~:tl~ ..iJ '~""'J(h .~i:£ì.~~t~~tl~. J~..~t. i ¡ 'J ,' ,""~ -~'. .': ~ "',' ~.... ~ it ~ '- '" 't7' A , ~ _ t '1 ~_ ~ ~ j£; -' -
2010 9,883 2,246 750 153 4,54 1,251 595 342
2011 10,198 2,284 759 158 4,667 1,292 686 352
2012 10,539 2,348 792 164 4,834 1,34 700 359
2013 10,831 2,387 77 167 5,004 1,402 725 368
6 Portolio evaluation for the 2008 IR used a load forecast preared in Novemb 2008 as well as the Febru
200 forect
25
PacCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
2014 11,122 2,418 788 5,153 1,463 757 377
2015 11,355 2,436 795 5,271 1,525 774 384
2016 11,585 2,452 803 5,411 1,569 788 391
2017 11,755 2,463 809 5,511 1,601 795 398
2018 11,951 2,476 84 5,610 1,633 805 406
2019 12,112 2,493 828 5,715 1,669 814 413
Table 3.3 - Annual Load Growth Change: October 2009 Forecast Less February
2009 Forecast
(Me awatt-hours)
2010 (2,200,076)
2011 (2,153,866)
2012 (1,765,360)
2013 (1,339,859)
2014 (1,066,760)
2015 (971,432)
2016 (897,247)
2017 (884,964)
2018 (972,390)
2019 (596,393) ,
Table 3.4 - Annual Coincidental Peak Growth Change: October 2009 Forecast Less
February 2009 Forecast
(Me awatts
2010 (271)
2011 (276)
2012 (258)
2013 (192)
2014 (43)
2015 (60)
2016 (98)
2017 (109)
2018 (143)
2019 (86)
26
Pac;~Corp 200BIRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
The primary drivers for load forecast growth changes by customer class are
summarized below.
· Residential- Lower customer growth as a result of the economic slowdown.
· Commercial - Lower customer growth, which is slightly offset by higher
commercial sales growth attibutable to several new data centers added in both
the east and west
· Industrial - In the western states, industrial sales have decreased as a result of
the economic downturn. The wood product sector has been hit the hardest. In
the eastern states, industrial sales to the oil and gas extraction, processing and
transportation sector have also declied.
Appendix A provides additional tables showing the October 2009 forecast net of Class 2
DSM load reductions.
CHANGES TO EXISTING AND FIRM PLANNED RESOURCES
Existing Supply-Side Resources
Since the fiing of the 2008 IR in May 2009, PacifiCorp has added 268 megawatts of
additional renewable resources. Table 3.5 report these renewable resources by
category, nominal capacity (MW), and commercial on-line date.
"
Table 3.5 - Renewable Resource Additions
The Company also entered into a number of firm market purchse and exchange
contract, classified by the Company as "Front Office Tranactons". Front office
tranactions represent contracts for standard market products acquired on a forward
27
Paci~Corp 20081RP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
basis typically for a one-to-three year term. Table 3.6 summarizes the purchases and
exchange agreements made subsequent to the fiing of the 2008 IRP, identifyng the
contract type and location, contract capacity (MW), and contract term. These
agreements all constitute seasonal thrd-quarter products.
Table 3.6 - Contract Additions: Front Offce Transactions
l ~~#~~ ," ,i 1'1'.r~ .;
~$~~~' N ,.~\ór.r.~1;~'f,,"¡.' ;, j
_tr:Xj1))i~1t~'f~rf.F'IJrrri";~ _t'~'~' ',_ ::,'-
,1f ' 'l,'i ~'.ï¡~'(~ /~ í ~ ~ '!r- r¿r~' rirr~~-¡- ". ,-:t 'lli.,,f "-' ''', .
Purchases
FaT Jrd Qtr - Mona 50 2010-2012
FaT Jrd Qtr - Mona 100 2011-2012
Locational Spreads ,.i i .',\'
FaT 3rd Qtr - Mona 100 2012-2013
FaT 3rd Qtr - Four Comers 100 2012-2013
FaT 3rd Qtr - Mona 50 2013
FaT 3rd Qtr - Mona 50 2012-2013
Existing Demand-side Management
In 2009, peak load reductions from participatig Class 1 DSM program participants
grew by 96 MW,from 345 MW targeted in the 2008 IRP to 441 MW of actual program. ,
partcipation.
The first-year historical energy and capacity savigs (1992-2009) associated with Class 2
DSM program actvity has accounted for over 3.8 milion megawatt hours and roughly
700 megawatt of load reductions.
For Class 3 DSM, System-wide parcipation in metered tie-of-day and time-of-use
programs as of December 31, 2009 was about 20,400 customers. Approximately 1.40
milion residential customers-96% of the Company's residential customer base-are
subject to inverted rate plans either seasonally or year-around.
In 2009 the Utah Public Service Commission approved a Company outreach and
communcation program designed to increase public understanding and awareness of
Rocky Mountai Power's DSM programs. Ths is the fist /I cost onlý' program to be
introduced into Utah's demand-side portolio on the premise that the outreach wil
increase the overall performance of all demand-side programs in the state. Similar
outreach and communcation programs are being considered for Washigton, Idaho
28
PaciffCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
and Wyoming provided the portfolio performance in those states can support the
additional costs.
Firm Planned Supply-Side Resources
Future supply-side resources are categoried as "firm planed" if they are under
constrcton, included in the Company's constrcton budget, or are purchases for
which a contract has been signed. The signicant changes to firm planed resources
include (1) the addition of the Dunap I and Top of the World wind projects in 2010, (2)
removal of the Swift 1 hydro turbine upgrades, and (3) a reducton in coal plant turbine
upgrade capacity. Table 3.7 reports the resource additons and subtractions accounted
for in the 2010 business plan.
Table 3.7 - Changes to Firm-Planned Resources
~'~" " ' ," v . '" ) ~ ," :",o~:~ ,~, ; j't~(~-1l~P-Yilíf~~ 'ì~~T;.rr*¡Pt.:~:'~~rJ~§rr~'~
~!i!i~;t~:~~~,1'""'\~kd'_:':t :,,,:;~;~;.,",_;;~:~ ,_ -,- .::~:_~k-0:c_ ~.:~:, ;r,-,._:..;_I~~,,\1'ï¡J~:;;'Ait~;jc\;lji;':t~m£~,'~~1 - .:""
11/30/2010
12/31/2010
12/1/2009
Firm Planned Demand-side Management
Planed Class 1 DSM peak load reductons increased from 525 MW in the 2008 IR to
566 MW for the 2010 business plan. The increase is priarily driven by greater
irrgation load management program participation than forecasted and the addition of a
commercial load management program in 2010. Contrbutions from these two programs
are forecasted to nearly offset the reducton in Utah's Cool Keeper air conditioning
program forecast in the 2010 business plan. The Cool Keeper reduction was prompted
7 Two additiona smal hydroelectrc Qufyg Facilties, for a tota of 1.8 MW, wil be included in the next
plag cycle.
Coal and gas plant tuine upgrdes were chaged by removig some upgres and deferng others. The 2008 IR
Preferrd Portolio included 169.9 megawatt of upgrdes, whereas the 2010 business pla inludes 135.2
megawatt.
29
PacCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
by a decision by the Public Utility Commission of Utah to deny the Company's
November 2008 request to modify the Cool Keeper program design from an opt-in to
opt-out participation modeL. This acton removed the Company's abilty to grow the
program as planed in the 2008 IR, absent legislative acton. For the purposes of the
2010 business plan, the Cool Keeper expanion was decreased from 200 MW to about 30
MW. However, legislation was proposed in January 2010 intended to enable the opt-out
design. The legislation passed in the Utah Legilature in March 2010. As a result, the
Company will revisit program growth assumptions in coordiation with the Utah DSM
Advisory Group.
UPDATED CAPACI.TY BALANCE
Historical DSM Adjustment
Increasing the load forecast to account for the hitorical DSM included in the forecast
ensures the appropriate quantities of Class 2 DSM are accounted for in the capacity
expanion modeL. Table 3.8 shows the impact of the historical DSM energy adjustments
to the anual system coincident peak loads used in the capacity load and resource
balance. (Note that this upward load adjustment applies only for capacity expansion
modeling purposes. The Company's official load forecast, included in Appendix A, is
reported netof th DSM adjustment.)
Table 3.8 - HistoricalDSM Adjustment to Coincident Peak Forecast
2010~37 9,883 9,920
2011 73 10,198 10,272
2012 110 10,539 10,648
2013 147 10,831 10,977
2014 183 11,122 11,306
2015 220 11,355 11,575
2016 256 11,585 11,841
2017 294 11,755 12,049
2018 330 11,951 12,281
2019 367 12,112 12,479
Figure 3.1 compares the annual capacity positions for the 2008 IRP and the 2010
business plan, covering 2010 though 2019. Both assume a 12 percent plang reserve
margi (PRM). The 2010 business plan capacity position does not become short unti
30
Paci~Corp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assesment
2012 versus 2011 for the 2008 IRP. Ths difference is attibuted to both a lower load
forecast as well as the resource changes described above.
Figure 3.2 shows the 2010 business plan's capacity peak load and resource gaps for the
system for 2010 through 2019 if no additional resources are acquired (the intial load &
resource balance). Table 3.9 reports the capacity load and resource lie items for the
Eastern Control Area, Western Control Area, and the system. Table 3.10 reports the line
item differences between the capacity balances for the 2008 IRP and the 2010 business
plan.
Figure 3.1 - Capacity Position Comparison, 2008 IRP versus the 20 I 0 Business Plan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1,000
500
.2010 Business Plan
-\.
o
(500)
(1,000)
~ (1,500)
(2,000)
(2,500)
(3,000)
(3,500).200IR
(4,000)
31
PacCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
Figure 3.2 - System Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 20 I 0 Business Plan
16,000
14,000
12,00
10,000
II;8,00..i:CD:E
6,000
4,000
2,000
ObUgatio + 12% Plnning Reeres
: PI~_;_CD CDResourc Gap. .Obligation
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
32
PaofiCorp 200BIRP Updat Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assesment
Table 3.9 - Capacity Load and Resource Balance, Megawatts (12% Target Reserve
Margin)
Calendar Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thermal 5,989 6,009 6,009 6,011 6,011 6,022 6,059 6,059 6,059 6,059
Hydroeectric 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132
Gass 1 DSM 458 463 468 468 468 468 468 468 468 468
Renewable 157 157 157 157 157 154 154 154 154 154
Purchase 560 655 705 604 304 304 283 283 283 283
Qualifing Facities 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152
Interruptible 327 327 327 327 327 327 327 327 327 327
Transfers 1,000 738 218 432 330 524 260 589 323 584
East Extig Resources 8,775 8,633 8,168 8,283 7,881 8,084 7,835 8,164 7,898 8,159
Load 6,753 7,036 7,292 7;577 7,846 8,070 8,295 8,461 8,628 8,804
Sale 768 758 997 1,045 745 745 745 659 659 659
East Obligation 7,521 7,794 8,289 8,622 8;591 8,815 9,040 9,120 9,287 9,463
Planing Reserves (12%)741 762 815 867 899 926 955 965 985 1,006
Non-owned reserves 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
East Reserves 812 832 885 937 969 996 1,026 1,035 1,055 1,077
East Obliation + Reserves 8,332 8,626 9,174 9;559 9;561 9,811 10,066 10,156 10,343 10;540
East Positin 443 7 (1,006)(1,276)(1,680)(1,728)(2,230)(1,991)(2,444)(2,380)
East Reserve Margin 18%12%(0%)(3%)(8%)(8%)(13%)(10%)(14%)(13%)
Thermal 2,554 2,554 2,554 2,554 2;554 2;554 2,566 2;564 2,572 2;584
Hydroeecric 1,128 1,135 977 976 976 982 982 982 978 925
Gass 1 DSM
Renewable 77 77 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71
Purchase 1,297 856 247 281 226 221 225 255 269 285
Qualifing Facities 144 138 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135
Transfers (1,000)(739)(219)(432)(329)(523)(260)(588)(323)(585)
West Exitig Resources 4,200 4,021 3,765 3;585 3,633 3,439 3,718 3,18 3,702 3,414
Load 3,166 3,236 3,355 3,00 3,459 3;504 3;546 3;588 3,653 3,674
Sale 490 290 258 258 258 158 108 108 108 108
West Obligation 3,656 3;526 3,613 3,658 3,717 3,662 3,654 3,696 3,761 3,782
Planig Resrves (12%)283 320 404 405 419 413 412 413 419 420
Non-owned reserves 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
West Reserves 290 327 410 412 425 419 418 419 426 426
West Obligation + Reserves 3,945 3,853 4,024 4,070 4,142 4,081 4,072 4,115 4,186 4,208
West Position 255 168 (259)(485)(510)(642)(354)(698)(485)(794)
West Reserve Margin 19%17%5%(1%)(2%)(6%)2%(7%)(1 %)(9%)
Total Resources 12,975 12,653 11,933 11,868 11;514 11,523 11,554 11;582 11,600 11;574
Obliation 11,176 11,319 11,902 12,280 12,308 12,477 12,694 12,816 13,048 13,245
Reserves 1,101 1,159 1,296 1,349 1,395 1,416 1,44 1,455 1,481 1,53
Obligation + Reserves 12,277 12,478 13,197 13,629 13,703 13,893 14,138 14,271 14;529 14,748
System Position 698 175 (1,264)(1,761)(2,189)(2,370)(2;584)(2,689)(2,929)(3,174)
Reserve Margin 18%14%1%(2%)(6%)(7%)(8%)(9%)(10%)(12%)
33
PadfiCorp 200BIRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Asessment
Table 3.10 - 20 I 0 Business Plan Capacity B,alance Less 2008 IRP Capacity Balance,
Megawatts
Calendar Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thermal (9)(15)(57)(55)(67)(56)(27)(29)196 195
Hydroelectric (3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)
Oass1 J:M 63 28 3 (7 (17)(27)(37)(47)(57)(57)
Renewable
Purchase 13 113 363 263 (37)(37)(37)(37)(37)(37)
Qualifying Facilities 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Interruptible 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Transfers 48 136 (204)(8)100 34 (244)324 (91)323
East Extig Resources 202 349 193 280 67 1 (258)299 99 511
Lod (196)(114)(112)(66)67 41 (8)(30)(68)(47)
Sale 250 300
East Obliation (196)(114)138 234 67 41 (8)(30)(68)(47)
Planning Reserves (12%)(43)(41)(38)(13)4 2 (3)(4)(8)(5)
Non-owned reserves
East Reserves (43)(41)(38)(13)4 2 (3)(4)(8)(5)
East Obligation + Reserves (239)(155)100 221 71 43 (11)(34)(76)(52)
East Position 442 505 93 60 (4)(41)(247)334 174 563
East Reserve Margin 6%6%1 %1 %0%(0%)(3%)4%2%6%
Thermal (5)(14)(25)(37)(37)(37)(25)(13)(5)7
Hydroelectric (89)(81)(3)(33)(70)(176)(168)(167)(168)(174)Oass1J:M .,
Renewable (19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)
Purchase 94 103 132 137 115 110 114 144 130 156
Qualifying Facilities 24 18 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Tranfers (47)(136)203 10 (101)(34)244 (325)92 (325)
West Extig Resoures (42)(129)303 73 (97)(141)161 (365)45 (340)
Lod (256)(254)(232)(238)(263)(265)(278)(305)(325)(313)
Sale
West Obligation (256)(254)(232)(238)(263)(265)(278)(305)(325)(313)
Planning Resrves (12%)(42)(43)(44)(45)(45)(45)(47)(54)(55)(56)
Non-owned resrves
West Reserves (42)(43)(44)(45)(45)(45)(47)(54)(55)(56)
West Obligation + Reserves (298)(297)(276)(283)(308)(310)(325)(359)(3)(369)
West Position 256 168 579 356 212 169 486 (6)425 29
West Reserve Margin 7'5%15%8%4%3%12%(2%)9%(1 %)
Total Resources 160 220 496 353 (30)(139)(97)(66)144 171
Obliation (452)(368)(94)(4)(196)(224)(286)(335)(393)(360)
Reserves (85)(84)(82)(58)(42)(43)(50)(58)(62)(61)
Obligatin + ReServes (537)(452)(176)(62)(238)(267)(336)(393)(455)(421)
System Position 698 673 672 415 208 128 239 327 599 592
Reserve Margin 6%6%6%3%1%1%1%2%4%4%
34
Paci~Corp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 3 - Resource Needs Assessment
Referencing Table 3.10, the signcant differences in lie item amounts reflect the
changes to existig and firm planed resources documented above, as well as the
following additional changes.
East Çhanges
· Thermal- The large increase in 2018 is attbutable to a change in the assumed
life of the Gadsby gas plants (Units 1-3). The plant life was extended past the
plang period rather than ending in 2017. The anual decreases in thermal
capacity reflect the 2010 business plan's modified coal and gas plant turbine
upgrade schedule.
· Purchases - In addition to new front office transaction contract, the modelig of
the Southeast Idaho exchange contract with the Bonnevile Power
Adminstration was updated with new non-owned resource inormation for the
control area, thereby lowering capacity.
· Interruptible contracts - The positive change reflects the inclusion of the
operatig reserve component of the Monsanto interruptible load contract (90
MW) in addition to the economic curtailment porton previously modeled.
· Market sales - Changes for years 2012 and 2013 are due to the recent front office
tranacton contract additions.
West Changes ,
· Thermal - TIe capacity decreases reflect project deferrals associated with the
2010 business plan's coal plant turbine upgrade schedule.
· Hydro - In addition to the removal of the Swift 1 turbine upgrade project, the
decrease in hydro capacity reflect a change to how the Grant PUD Meangful
Priority contract right (107 MW on an average anual basis) is handled. Ths
contract includes an annual physical power electon option. Since the Company
performs analysis every year to determine whether to elect the physical power,
the decision was made to remove it from forward years. The Company sti
receives the Reasonable Porton Revenues spread whether or not the Meangfl
Priority is elected.
· Renewable Resource and Qualifying Facilties - The Oregon Wind Farm 1/11
were reclassifed from the Renewables Resource category to the Qualifyg
Faciity category, explainng the 19 MW capacity decrease shown.
· Purchases - The increase is due to the new load forecast for the Southeast Idaho
exchange contract, which reflects the return of energy from the Bonnevile Power
Adminstration.
35
PadffCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
4. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS UPDATE
Ths chapter describes the key modeling assumption changes relative to the 2008 IR.
The areas covered include natural gas and electricity market prices, C02 emission costs
and compliance, the tranmission topology, resource costs, and renewable portfolio
standard (RPS) compliance.
NATURAL GAS AND POWER MARKET PRICE UPDATES
PacifiCorp used the September 30, 2009 official forward price cues ("September 2009
cues") for development of the fial 2010 business plan. For the final 2008 IRP
modelig, PacifiCorp used forward price curves developed in October 2008.
Consistent with past practice, price cues are developed with market forwards for the
first six years, a blending of market forwards and a fudamentals forecast for year
seven, and a pure fundamentals forecast for subsequent years. These price curve
components are used for both natural gas and electricity prices. The fudamentals
forecast for natural gas is selected from a varety of external sources with consideration
given to underlyig supply/demand assumptions, forecast documentation, peer-to-peer
forecast price comparions, date of issuance, and forecast horizon. The fudamentals
forecast for natural gas is then a key input to the internally derived estiation of the
fundamentals forecast for electcity, which is produced with MIAS, a chronological
hourly dispatch mo'!el covering the Western Interconnect.
Natural Gas Market Prices
The September 2009 natural gas price curve is based upon an external long-term gas
price forecast issued in June 2009 and a short term gas price forecast issued in August
2009. Figue 4.1 compares the nomial anual Henr Hub natural gas prices from the
October 2008 and September 2009 curves.
The September 2009 natural gas curve reflect a fundamentals forecast inuenced by
cost effective domestic supply opportuties largely due to growth in unconventional
shale gas plays. The amount of unconventional domestic supply underlying the
September 2009 natural gas curve is larger than what was assumed in the fudamentals
forecast underlying the October 2008 natural gas curve. Expectations for domestic
unconventional supply tripled by 2025 in the fudamental forecast underlyig the
September 2009 curve relative to the fudamentals forecast used for the October 2008
cuve. As shown in the figue below, the projected inux of unconventional domestic
supplies into the Nort American natural gas market lowers long-term prices
considerably.
36
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
Figure 4.1 - Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices (Nominal)
$16.00
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00::...i::::$8.00-11
$6.00
$4.00
..October 2008
$2.00
_September 2009
$0.00
~(; ~'" ~'" ~", ~ ~~ ~fo ~ ~q, ~ (l(; (l'" (l'" (l'" ~ ~ (lfo ~ (lq, ~ ~(;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Power Market Prices
The electricity price fudamentals forecast is developed with the MIAS model, an
hourly. chronological dispatch model for the Western Interconnect. The natural gas
fudamentals forecast descrbed above is a key input to the MIDAS model, and
consequently, the declie in electricity prices from the October 2008 curve to the
September 2009 curve is consistent with the declie in natual gas prices. Figures 4.2
though 4.4 compare the average anual electricity prices for the Palo Verde and Mid-
Columbia market hubs from the October 2008 and September 2009 curves.
37
PadfìCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
Figure 4.2 - Average Annual Flat Palo Verde Electricity Prices
$140.00
$120.00
$100.00
~ $80.00
:i~
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00 ..October 2008
__September 2009
$0.00 ~yy~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~"'~ "'~ "'~ ~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ "'~ ~ "'~ ",c:
Figure 4.3 - Average Annual Heavy Load Hour Palo Verde Electricity Prices
$140.00
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
l.. $60.00~
$40.00
$20.00
$0.00
..October 2008
--september 2009
~yy~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
38
PoofiCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
Figure 4.4 - Average Annual Flat Mid-Columbia Electricity Prices
$140.00
$120.00
$40.00
$100.00
.c $80.00
~..11
$60.00
$20.00 -+October 2008
_September 2009
$0.00 O~Nm~~~~~~O~Nm~~~~~~o8888888888SSSSSSSSSS~NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS COST AND COMPLIANCE
For the 2010 business plan, the assumed cOi compliance mechansm was a cap & trade
system.! whereas for the 2008 IRP, the compliance mechanm was a cOi tax. Table 4.1
contrasts the modelig assumptions for the 2008 IR and 2010 business plan.
The use of the $8/ton price startg point for the 2010 business plan reflects contiued
uncertaity regardig cOi price signals for existig fossil fuel generation durig the 10-
year business planing period. However, as noted in Chapter 5, the Company used a
$45/ton C02 alowance price starting point to develop resource targets for Class 2 DSM,
and intial targets for wind. The $45/ton cOi allowance price serves as a reasonable
proxy for an RPS compliance price, and helps to capture cOi risk mitigation benefits for
these resource types.
39
PacifiCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
Table 4.1 - Comparison of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Modeling Assumptions
· Emission tax system
· For portolio development, defined
2013 startg values at $0, $45, $70,
and $100 per short ton (in 2008
dollars), escalated at 2% / year
ination rate
. For stochastic production cost
modeling, simulated portfolios with
$0, $4, and $100 per ton values
· Cap & trade system based on
emissions at the retail level
. Emission cap: 37.3 millon tons by
2020 (17% lower th 2005 levels)
. $8 C02 allowance price starting in
2013 (in 2008 dollars), escalated at
1.8% / year; anual values are as
follows:
U.S. C02 Prices
(Nominal
Year $/shor ton)
2010 $0.00
2011 $0.00
2012 $0.00
2013 $8.58
2014 $8.74
2015 $8.90
2016 $9.06
2017 $9.22
2018 $9.38
2019 $9.55
TRANSMISSION TOPOLOGY
The tranmission topology used for the 2008 IRP update reflects the addition of a new
tranmission area (or "bubble") to refine the representation of firm transmission rights
associated with the Chehals gas-fired combined cycle plant acquired in 2007. Figure 4.5
shows the transmission system topology with the new Chehalis bubble in Washigton
and its lins to other west-side bubbles (West Mai, Mid-Columbia market, and
Yakima).
40
PadffCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
Figure 4.5 - Transmission Topology
~~,
~ Load
.. Geenci~ Puiie Mara COntnEi
_ PaftCOipTranlTss-Owed/FlrmRiii..
... P1ennedBierGaeyTrilsi '"
Washington
M 0 Í\ t a
FRONT OFFICE TRANSACTIONS
For the 2010 business plan, the most significant change to anual front office transaction
(FOT) acquisition limits was to elimiate the need to access the Nevada-Utah Border
(NUB) market hub due to the acquisition of Nevada Power transmision service from
Mead into Utah startng in 2012, as well as lower projected load growth. The maximum
availabilty of Mona FOT was alo increased from 200 MW to 300 MW beging in
2013. Table 4.2 compares the FOT annual limit assumptions made for the 2008 IR and
2010 business plan by market hub and the two proxy resource types modeled: seasonal
heavy load hour (3rd quarter 6x16) and flat anual (7x24) products.
41
PacifCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
Table 4.2 -Front Offce Transaction Annual Limit Assumptions
. (lì;f , . "'- mù~"' "
. 600 MW in 2017 and
beyond
Mead I Jrd Quarer 6x16
Mona I Jrd Quarter 6x16 . 200 MW in 200 and
beyond
. 300 MW in 2012 - 2014
. 100 MW in 2015 - 2016
. OMWin2017+
. 200 MW in 2009 - 2012
. 30 MW in 2013 and
be ond
. Hub not incorporatedNevada-Utah Border /
3rd Quarer 6x16
Uta /3rd Quarer 6x16
West Main I Jr Quaer 6x16
Mid-Columbia I Flat 7x24 and
Jrd Quaer 6x16
COB I Flat 7x24 and 3rd Quarer 6x16
. 164 MW in 2012
. 579 MW in 2013
.50MW
.50MW
. 400 MW + 300 MW with
10% rice remium
. 40MW
.50MW
.50MW
. 40MW
. 40MW
CLAS§ 205M SUPPLY CURVES
PacifiCorp modeled Class 2 DSM in a maner consistent with the approach used for the
2008 IR: via supply curve resource options available by load area, year, and levelized
cost range. The supply curve DSM potentials were updated to directly account for the
impact of the forthcomig federal residential lightig standards specified in the Energy
Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. In contrast, for the 2008 IRP, the
Company handled the impact of the federal lightig standards as adjustments to the
load forecast fed into the System Optimizer modeL.
Consistent with the Northwest Power and Consrvation Council's methodology at the
time, it Was assumed that 15 percent of residential compact fluorescent lightig (CFL)
potential falls outside of the scope of the EISA standards, and could be acquired in
equal amounts from 2010 though 2014. After 2014, there would be no CFL potential
due to the standards. The resultig load reducton estimates were spread over the end-
use load shapes to create the updated supply curve load shapes input into System
Optiizer.9
RESOURCE CAPITAL COSTS
PacifiCorp modifed capital costs for the 2010 business plan based on inormation
available in the fal of 2009. The costs reflect adjustments to account for expected real
deceases due to the on-going recession, general ination, and industr demand for the
9 The supply cure updte was peormed by The Cadmus Group, Inc., the fi that develope the origial
supply cues for the 2001R.
42
PadffCorp 200BIRP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
various generation options. For combine-cycle plants (CCCTs), the capital costs also
incorporate adjustments reflecting continued efforts to develop a second phase at the
Lake Side facility.
Table 4.3 shows the capital costs by generation resource type considered for the 2010
busiress plan, as well as changes with respect to those used for the 2008 IRP.
Table 4.3 - Resource Capital Cost Comparison, 20 i 0 Business Plan vs. 2008 IRP
Natural Gas, Intercooled Aero SCCT
Natural Gas, SCCT Frame
Natural Gas, CCCT 2xl 450 feet elev.)
Wind
3%
3%
1%
Natual Gas, Intercooled Aero SCCT
Natual Gas, SCCT Frame
Natu Gas, CCCT2xl (150 feet elev.
Natural Gas, CCCT 2xl,'Sea level elev.)
Wind
985
700
1/714
$1,629
$2,474
3%
1%
1%
5%
RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARD COMPLIANCE
Thoughout the 2010 business plang process, resource portfolios were evaluated
against forecasts of renewable portfolio standard compliance requirements. These
requirements consider the Company's updated retail load forecasts, load reductons
from demand -side management programs, existing qualifing renewable resources
based on state-speciic RPS eligibilty criteria, and estimates of renewable energy credit
sales.
The following key assumptions were updated for the renewable portfolio standard
compliance analysis:
· Use of the October 25, 2009 load forecast
43
PaciCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 4 - Modeling Assumptions Update
· Use of the System Optimizer Class 2 DSM resource expansion plan, descnbed in
Chapter 5.
· Qualifying renewable resources under state-specific renewable portfolio
standard programs were updated to 1,686 MW, which includes 600 MW of
additions needed in 2020 through 2022 to comply with an assumed federal RPS
requirement that reaches 20 percent by 2025 (the Waxman-Markey Bil).
· Estimates for sale of renewable energy credit were included, with no sales
beyond 2012 due to anticipated federal or greenhouse gas legislation.
In addition to the existing state RPS requiements, on July 22, 2009, Oregon Governor
Ted Kulongoski signed into law House Bil 3039, which includes a large-scale (500 kW
to no more than 5 MW) electic utility solar capacity standard. 10 The law requires
electric utilities in the state to acquire 20 MW (alternatig-errent basis) of owned or
purchased nameplate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity by January 1, 2020. Each utiity's
requirement is based on its share of the state's 2008 retail electrcity sales. PaciiCorp's
estimated requirement developed during 2010 business plan preparation was 8.8 MW.
Ths capacity is reflected in the Company's 2010 business plan resource portfolio.
10 Enolled House Bil 3039, July 2009, Section 3.
44
PacifiCorp 200BIRP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
s. PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
PacifiCorp used the System Optimizer capacity expansion optimization model to
develop resource portfolios based on inputs and assumptions updated throughout the
business planing process. Portfolio modelig conducted for the prelimiary 2010
business plan scenario is described first. Next, the portfolio development approach for
the formal business plan submissions to MEHC is described. For ths portfolio
development, the Company devised a number of resource targets outside of the
modeling effort, and treated these targets as fixed resource schedules in subsequent
capacity expansion modeling. Finally, the business plan portolio is presented.
PRELIMINARY 20 I 0 BUSINESS PLAN SCENARIO
The purpose of the preliminary business plan scenario was to constrct an early view
of where the Company stands in regard to new resource requiements, net power costs,
financig, and other critical factors that determine business plan decisions. A key goal
was identification of the challenges in developing an affordable and fiancially
sustaiable business plan in light of deterioratig economic conditions, volatile market
conditions, regulatory uncertainty, and the Company's ambitious capital spendig
plans. Preliminary scenario development relied on updated inormation available at the
time, including the February 2009 load forecast, the March 31, 2009 offcial forward
price curves, recet. rate case outcomes, and modified transmission assumptions,
including the March 2009 Energy Gateway tranmission plan. (No changes to emission
costs, resource costs, or resource availabilty, were incorporated in the scenario
development. )
The resource portfolio modeling, which used the 2008 IRP preferred portolio as the
starting point, indicated that new gas plant capacity could be deferred by one year: 2014
to 2015 for a combined-cycle plant, and 2016 to 2017-2018 for simple-cycle units. These
resource deferrals were made possible by assuming that Energy Gateway transmission
access to the Mead market in Nevada was available in 2014 rather than the 2017 date
assumed for the 2008 IRP. Front office transacton availabilty at Mona also was
increased from 200 MW to 300 MW begig in 2013. (See Table 4.2 for a comparison
of front office transacton availabilty assumptions for the 2010 business plan and 2008
IR). Note that th portfolio modeling did not include the Energy Gateway completion
date deferrals docmented in Chapter 2.
45
Paci~Corp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
20 I 0 BUSINESS PLAN SUBMISSIONS
As noted above, ths phase of portolio development consisted of both capacity
optimization modeling as well as determination of resource capacity targets added as
fixed resources in the capacity expansion modeL. Modelig strategies by resource tye
are described below.
Resource Modeling Strategies
Thermal Resources
PacifiCorp allowed the System Optimizer model to select the type and timing of gas-
fired resources for the business plan portfolio, subject to revised earliest in-servce dates
for the resource options. (Coal-fired plants were not included as resource options
pending clarification of federal greenhouse gas emisions reduction requirements.) In-
servce dates were moved out one year relative to those used for the 2008 IRP and
preliminary business plan scenario. For example, the earliest in-service date for
conventional combined-cycle plants was changed from 2013 to 2014, whie the date for
intercooled aero derivative simple-cycle combustion tubine plants was changed from
2012 to 2013.
Class i Demand-side management
PacifiCorp's DSM departent developed the Class 1 DSM targets for the 2010 business
plan. These targets ,were informed by DSM RFP activities and program expansion
efforts. The Class '1 DSM targets were treated as fied resources in ,the System
Optimizer modeL. Table 5.1 shows the new Class 1 DSM targets used for the 2010
business plan. The DSM resources consist of the Cool Keeper and irrigation programs,
as well as an "Oter" direct load control (DLC) category that includes residential ai
conditionig, commercial curtailment, and customer-owned distrbuted standby
generation (DSG).
Table 5.1 - Class i Demand-side Management Cumulative Additions
¡fl.QÌ~'-"'I~ ~ ~ h~å,ii"J'.t:¡,p _ 'C. .':H~';: ,dl h ~~.., JI~.., 1,,' ~ r \..d1 y,,- ¡ ,rfi i ",1)'~~~.i,~~&k&""",,,", ¡ ~ 4.i,;=~~,.. _, z' ~;(ô.'T t '" ~_ '. _~ J.."J., _~ _~ _ ~ _ __ ~_..~'''_ ""_ ~!t~m~~:~"'1:.(i''Ìi'¡:~Ft, ~ , ','- ~&~'~Mri4J;l,~~i:;;AJ¿~~1~- ';I"',,:J~ l' J~~ 1.
46
PaciCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 5 - PortoNo Development
Note that for the 2010 business plan, customer-owned standby generation was
combined with the commercial curtailment program category under Class 1 DSM. In
contrast, commercial curtailment was categorized as a separate generation resource for
the 2008 IRP.
Table 5.2 compares the 2010 business plan's total cumulative capacity targets for new
Class 1 programs with those in the 2008 IRP Preferred Portfolio though 2019.
Table 5.2 - New Class i Demand-side Management Capacity Comparson
Existing
Irgation
Utah - Cool Kee r
Subtotal- Existin Oass 1 DSM
New
Utah - Cool Keeper
Distrbuted Standb Generation DSG
Subtotal- New Oass 1 DSM
220
100
320
205
50
Existig
Uta - Cool Keeper
Idaho Iigation
Utah frri ation
Subtotal- Existi Class 1 DSM
New
Utah - Cool Keeper
Idaho Irgation
Utah Irgation
Irrigation - CA, OR, W A
Commercial Curtailment ìncludi DSG
100
275
40
415
28
12
13
20
78
Class 2 Demand-side Management
To obtain Class 2 DSM targets, PacifiCorp ran the System Optizer with a $45/ton C02
allowance price startg point (beginng in 2013) rather than the business plan's
origial $8.58/ton price assumption. The resultig Class 2 DSM schedule was then fixed
for subsequent portfolio development. The $45/ton allowance price served as the cOi
cost assumption for development of the 2008 IR preferred portolio. In addition to
47
PadfiCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
capturing the long term C02 risk mitigation benefits of ths resource, its use for business
plan DSM target-setting avoids widely fluctatig acquisition amounts relative to the
2008IRP, which is important for DSM program plang.
The 2010 business plan modeling resulted in nine percent less Class 2 DSM (on a MW
reduction basis) for the 2010-2019 plang period, mostly the result of the revisions to
resource supply curves to reflect pending federal lightig code changes, lower load
projections, and lower gas/electcity market prices. These factors helped to reduce the
avaiabilty and need for Class 2 DSM resources with the plang period.
Renewable Resources
For capacity expansion modeling purposes, the Company added a fied wind
acquisition schedule in the portfolio reflectng changes to both the amount and timing
of proxy wind projects. These changes resulted in a cumulative wind capacity (or rated
capabilty) decrease of 452 MW for 2009 through 2018, relative to the 2008 IRP preferred
portfolio. Other renewable resource options were excluded from the System Optiizer
modeL. The rationale for the modified wind acquisition schedule is provided later in ths
Chapter.
Front Offce T ransadions
PacifiCorp relied on the System Optizer model to select the type, quantity, and
timig of front office tranactons, subject to the anual capacity limits documented in
Table 4.2. Note thatthe Company wil contiue to evaluate cost-effectve renewable or
thermal plant assets as resource alternatives to front office transactions.
Combined Heat and Power
Combined heat and power (CHP) resources were excluded from the business plan
portfolio modeling. This decision reflect the expected diffculty in acquirg the
capacity indicated in the 2008 IRP preferred portfolio given the very limted
opportties so far presented to the Company. The Company's expectation is that if
CHP is to materialize it wil develop as a qualifed facility and be incorporated into the
plan at the state specific avoided cost
BUSINESS PLAN PORTFOLIO
Table 5.3 summarizes the anual megawatt capacity and tig of resources in the 2010
business plan portfolio. (Note that the Top of the World PPA wind project, 200.2 MW,
has a commercial on-lie date of December 31, 2010, but is shown in 2011, since that is
the year that it is available to serve peak loads.) A more detailed table of portfolio
resources is provided in Appendix A. Table 5.4 presents the 2008 IR preferred
48
PacißCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
portfolio, while Table 5.5 shows the resource capacity and timig differences between
the 2010 business plan and 2008 IR portfolios. An explanation of the signficant
resource changes with respect to the 2008 IRP follows.
Table 5.3 - 20 I 0 Business Plan Portolio
20 2 11 37
200 160 100
6 5
5 15 20 10 3
65 66 68 68 49 50 51 50
200 338 519 300 300 350 347
l'.;.~ !'':
12 125 17 18 5 4540 40 39 40 40 37 37 27 27 3531.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 8.840 594 704 494 623 60 289m ~ ~ ~ w ~ m il ru
60 931 1,113 794 913 958 636394 341 948 1,081 1,348 1,53 1,059 1,108 1,357 1,087
.. Other Oass 1 DSM consists of (1) irgation and residential ai conditionig control, and (2) commercial
cuent, including customer-owned stadby generation.
Table 5.4 - 2008 IRP Preferred Portolio
44 33 2 14
35
99 249 100 100 100 150 100 100
2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
25 50 40 30 10 10 10 10 10
42 51 49 52 55 55 56 56 58
75 50 150 394 493 200 202 228 717
9 12 12
25 25 25
45 20 200
I I I 2 2 2
I 1 1 I 1 I
35 36 39 39 39 39 39
59 739 739 689 289
157 467 378 813 166 485 118
75 so 109 939 941 918 1
332 517 587 1762 1,108 1,402 1,114
49
PaciffCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
Table 5.5 - Resource Differences, 20 I 0 Business Plan Less 2008 IRP Preferred
Portolio
(28 (13 (14)11
(100)(150 (100)60
(3 (4)(4)(4)
(4)(4 (4)4)
(10)(10)(10)(10)
N/A N/A N/A N/A
13 (7)(6)(6)
319 98 72 (367)
..~, i:wr~,,~;~~t,!;""
12 12
(20) (200)o I 0(I) (I) (I)N~ N~ N~3 i 0)
1.8(59) (67) 3193 348 33209 5 (48
(124) (24 777) (53 29 343 15) (183)
* The 2008 IRP Preferred Portolio table cited a range of "up to 120 MW" for other Class 1 DSM (90 MW east, 30
MW west), and excluded customer~owned standby generation. A resource diference is only reported for the
200-2018 cuulative amounts assumg that the upper east-side and west-side maximum are reached by 2018.
As noted in earlier in this Chapter, revised assumptions regarding Utah tranmission
import capabilty,from Nevada, as well as lower load growth, supported the deferral of
the east-side gas resòurces. The first gas resource, a CCCT, was deferred from 2014 to
2015. The intercooled aero SCCT, originally appearig in 2016, has now been replaced
by a CCCT added in 2018.
There were a number of operational and business plang developments in the 10
months subsequent to the fiing of the 2008 IRP that impacted the Company's plans for
relatively level wind acquisitions on an annual basis thoughout the 10-year investment
planng period. Chapter 2 cites the Windstar to Populus Energy Gateway in-servce
date adjustment and economic downturn. These plang developments prompted the
Company to defer wid resource acquisition during the 2012-2016 timeframe.ll The
Company has also gained operational experience with large-scale and rapid wind
penetration on portons of the Wyoming system, and consequently contiues to focus
on maintaing system reliabilty and effcient use of new and existig resources in the
plan.
ii See page 240 of the 2008 IR for a discussion on the rationale for distrbutig wid acquisitions across all year.
50
PadfiCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
Relative to the 2008 IRP preferred portfolio, the wind portfolio is reduced by 550 MW
from 2012 through 2016, and a total of 452 MW for 2009 through 2018. Nevertheless, the
Company has exceeded the commitment made by MidAmerican Energy Holdings
Company and PacifiCorp to have 1,400MW of cost-effective renewable resources in
PacifiCorp's portfolio by 2015; with resources acquired after 2003, PacifiCorp is
expected to surpass ths commitment by 333 MW by the end of 2010. With the revised
wind portfolio and availabilty of flexible compliance mechansms, PacifiCorp is
expected to meet state and potential federal renewable portfolio standard requirements
though this time frame with no new additions as shown later in this section. As noted
in Chapter 2, the Company will contiue to seek attractve wind and other renewable
resource opportuties in light of contiuig changes in the economic and regulatory
environments.
Table 5.6 shows the capacity Load and Resource balance resultig from the addition of
the 2010 business plan portfolio. Note that the renewable resource additions reflect the
capacity contrbution of wind projects to system coincident peak and not the nominal
capacity values shown in the portfolio tables above. Similarly, Class 2 DSM resource
additions are reported as the capacity available at the tie of the system coincident
peak load hour, which is less than the installed capacity reported in Tables 5.3 through
5.5.
51
PadffCorp 2008 IRP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
Table 5.6 - Portolio Load and Resource Balance with Additions (Megawatts)
Cadar Yea 2010 2011 20 2013 2014 20 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thal 5,989 6,00 6,00 6,011 6,011 6,022 6,059 6,059 6,059 6,059Hydroc132132132132132132132132132132
Oas1DSM 45 46 46 46 46 46 468 46 468 468Reble157157157157157154154154154154Purse560657060304302832828283
Qualiing Faciti 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152Intele327327327327327327327327327327Tra5047515579836888186479623
East Exiting Resources 8,279 8,64 8.s 8,650 8,31 8,244 8,45 8,4 8,054 8,198
DSM,Oa!ll 0 5 20 40 50 53 53 53 53 53
DSM,Oa!l2 94 143 192 243 295 331 36 40 44 481
Frot Off Trancton 0 0 20 33 519 30 30 35 34 350
Gas 0 0 20 200 200 80 807 80 1,3 1,3
Win 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 24 26 31
East Planed Reurces 109 168 633 84 1,l 1,511 1,5 1,639 2,11 2,
East Total Resources 8,3 8,814 9,132 9,492 9,4 9,75 10,l 10,08 10,2 10,456
Lod 6,75 7,03 7,22 7,577 7,84 8,070 8,295 8,461 8,62 8,80
Sal 768 75 99 1,045 745 745 745 65 65 65
East Obligation 7,521 7,794 8,29 8,62 8,5 8,815 9,04 9,no 9,27 9,4
Plag Re (12%)730 744 765 792 79 84 869 86 88 900Noi-o re 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
East Rees 80 815 836 863 86 914 939 938 954 97
Eat Obligation + Resees 8,321 8,6 9,124 9,4 9,47 9,729 9,979 10,059 10,242 10,4
East Position 67 206 8 7 8 25 25 24 24 23East Reve Magi 13%15%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%
Thal 2,554 2,5 2,2,2,2,5 2,56 2.,5 2,572 2,5Hydr1,128 1,135 97 976 976 98 982 982 97 925
0a1DSM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Reble"77 77 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71Pias1,297 856 247 281 226 221 22 255 269 28
Quliing Facti 144 138 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135Tra(50)(71)(551)(80)(83 (68)(881)(86)(479)(624)
Wes Extig Resources 4,694 4,D 3,433 3,27 3,132 3,2 3,D 3,140 3,56 3,375
DSM, CJl 0 5 22 40 45 45 45 45 45 45
DSM,0a2 50 76 101 126 151 175 20 217 23 251
Fro Off Triicti 0 0 40 59 70 494 62 60 28 44
Sor 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
West Plaed Reurces SO 81 528 762 90 718 871 87 571 744
West Total Resurces 4,745 4,090 3,961 3,97 4,3,996 3,96 4,013 4,117 4,119
Load 3,166 3,23 3,3 3,40 3,45 3,5 3,54 3,5 3,65 3,674Sa4902902S2S2S158108108108108
Wes Obliation 3,6 3,526 3,613 3,6 3,717 3,6 3,65 3,6 3,761 3,782
Plaing Re (12%)277 311 341 314 311 3X 30 30 351 331Non re 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
West Reves 28 317 347 32 317 33 314 315 357 337
Wes Obliion + Rees 3,933 3,86 3,95 3,97 4,3,98 3,91 4,l 4,112 4,113
West Posion 812 2S 7 7 7 7 6 8 6 6
Wes Reve Margi 34%1""0 12%12%12o 12%12%12 12%12%
Total Resource 13,132 12,13,D3 13,471 13,5 13,75 13,97 14,D5 14,3 14,575
Obligation 11,176 11,319 11,90 12,2 12 12,477 12 12,816 13,04 13,245Rees1,08 1,132 1,18 1,183 1,183 1,248 1,1,2 1,312 1,3
Oblitin + Reseves 1260 121 13,D 13,46 13,491 13,725 13,97 14,14,14,
System Postion 87 45 9 8 9 26 24 26 23 23Ree Margi 20%16%12%12%12 12%12%12 12 12
52
PacifCorp 20081RP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
Table 5.7 -Differences:Load and Resource Balance 2008 IRP versus 2008 IRP
Update (Megawatts)
Car Year 2010 2011 20U 20 204 20IS 206 2017 2018 2019
Th (9)(15)(57)(55)(67)(56)(27)(29)1%195Hydr(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)
ci1 DSM 63 28 3 (7)(17)(2 (37)(47 (57 (57)Reble 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Pur",13 113 36 26 (37 (37 (37 (37)(37)(37)Qug Facti 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
httepbble 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90Tra(410)(43)(135)62 26 (85)144 637 (40)(9)
Ea Exiing Resourc:(25)170 262 35 232 (118)130 6U IS 179
Comin Heat an Pow (4)(6)(9)(11)(14)(18)(22)(26)(3)(3)Di Stay Ceti (8)(12)(15)(19)(23)(2 (31)(35)(38)(38)DSM,cii 0 5 20 40 50 53 53 53 53 53
DSM,ci2 15 24 32 39 46 37 30 22 11 4Frat Off Tract (50)(150)(194)(154)319 98 72 (367)(45)(45)
Ga.0 0 0 0 (57)37 (24)(224)312 312Ge000(35)(35)(35)(35)(35)(3)(35)Win 3 8 5 3 1 (3)(5)(4)(3)(3)
Eas Planed Resources (44)(131)(161)(138)(2)142 (163)(616)(183)(1901
East Total Reurce (21 40 100 21 6 24 (32)(3)(34)(10)
Lo (196)(114)(112)(66)67 41 (8)(30)(68)(47)Sal 0 0 25 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eat Oblition (196)(114)138 23 67 41 (81 (3)(68)(47)
Pl Re (12%)(39)(2 (21)(4)(46)(21)(21)31 39 42Nc..0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ea Ree.(39)(2 W)(4)(46)(21)W)31 39 42
Eas Obltion + Rees (23)(1411 117 23 21 20 (2)1 (2)(5)
Eat Position (64)181 (16)(17)(l5)4 (3)(4)(5)(5)Eas Reve Margi .08%2.oO.~.2%.Q 0.0%ll 0.11 0.0%~.1%
Th (5)(14)(25)(37)(37)(37)(2)(13)(5)7Hydr(89)(81)(3)(33)(70)(176)(168)(167)(168)(174)
cil DSM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Rele(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)(19)Pur 94 103 132 137 115 110 114 144 130 156
Quaing Fac 24 18 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15Tra4044135(62)(265 85 (144)(635)41 8
Wes Exhtg Reurce 41 51 23 1 (261)(22 (22 (675)(6)(7)
Com HIt an Pow (2)(4)(5)(7 (9)(10)(12)(14)(16)(17)Di Stay Geti (2)(4)(5)(6)(7 (8)(9)(11)(12)(12)DScii 0 5 22 40 45 45 45 45 45 45
DSM,ci2 (4)(7 (11)(14)(18)(2)(2 (41)(45)(48)Fro Off Tr 0 (59)(43 (245 (35 (2 (67)319 (292)(277
Solr 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Win 0 (8)(8)(8)(8)(8)(8)(8)(8)(8)Wes Planed Rece (8)(76)(4411 (23)(2)(247)(77 29 (32)(314)
West Total Reurces 40 W)12)(2)(2)(2)(301 (3)(330)(321)
Lo (25)(2)(22)(2)(263)(2)(278)(30 (325)(313)Sal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wes Oblitio (2)(25 (2)(2)(21 (26)(27)(30)(325)13131
Pl Re (12%)(42)(3)7 (19)(44)(18)(41)(93)(2)(2)Non~_0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wes Rees (42 (36)7 (191 (44)(18)(411 (93)12)(2)
Wes Oblition + Rees (2)(2 (2)(257)(3 (23)13191 (39)(3)(3
Wes Posion 7I 265 19 19 17 14 IS 16 14 14
Wes Ree Magi 19.4%7.5%0.5%o.'l 0.%0.4%0.%0.%D.%0.%
Total RelUce 10 IS (iOS)(25)(2)(25)(37)(381 (36)(32)Obliti (452)(361 ('1)(4)11%)(24)(28)(335)(393)131Rees(81)(62)(14)(2)(90)(3)(62 (62)19 19Oblln + Re (53)(43)(101 (27)(2)(2)(3)(3 (374)(3
Sys Posion 63 44 3 2 2 18 U 11 10 9
Ree Maid 5.%3.9%ll 0.11 0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.%
53
Pac~Corp 200BIRP Update Chapter 5 - Portolio Development
COMPLIANCE WITH RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARD REQUIREMENTS
i
Figures 5.1 show the forecasted anual RPS compliance positions for the Oregon,
Washington, Californa, and Federapi RPS programs, covering the period 2010 though
2019. Utah's RPS goal is tied to a 2025 compliance date, so the 2010-2019 position is not
shown below. However, a Utah REC baning balance is assumed to accrue to meet cost-
effective clean energy requirements by the 2025 compliance date.
Figure 5.1 - Annual State and Federal RPS position Forecasts
PacifCorp
California RPS Compliance Forecst..
uo
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70
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PacifiCorp
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7....
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2010 zal1 2012 2013 2014 1015 2016 201 2018 2019
_Oreonl....II.. ~renRPT..(GWhI
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_Fe RP EIIb R....1e -o lI Tar
For Californa and Washigton, PacifiCorp expects to utiize flexible compliance
mechansms such a bang, earmarkig, and tradable RECs where allowed, to meet
the RPS requirements.
12 The forecated federal RPS position is a scenaro based on RPS provisions of the Wax-Markey "American
Clean Energy and Secuty Act" (H.R. 2454).
54
PadßCorp 200BIRP Update Chapter 6 - Acton Plan Update
6. ACTION PLAN UPDATE
Ths section provides the updated IRP Action Plan, modified as a result of the outcome
of PacifiCorp's 2010 business planng process. The Acton Plan update is presented as
Table 6.1. Changes to the original 2008 IRP Acton Plan have been highlighted with the
use of red font, underling for additions, and strike-though for deletions. A comments
column has also been added to provide background on the action item changes.
55
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66
PacifiCorp 2008 IRP Update Appendix A - Additonal Load Forecast and Resource Portolio Information
ApPENDIX A - ADDITIONAL LOAD FORECAST AND RESOURCE PORTFOLIO
INFORMATION
OCTOBER 2009 LOAD FORECAST
The Load forecast presented in Chapter 3 represents the data used for capacity
expansion modeling, and excludes load reductions from energy efficiency resources
(Class 2 DSM) included in the 2010 business plan selected by PacifiCorp's capacity
expanion modeL. To arnve at the retail sales forecast, total Class 2 DSM is reduced by
an estimated forecast of load reductions from existig DSM programs captured in the
historical load data. Ths adjustment is intended to avoid double counting of
incremental DSM. The post-DSM load forecast then captures the energy savigs from
the incremental DSM. Tables A.l and A.2 present the "post-DSM" load forecasts-
energy and coincident peak loads, respectively, whie Table A.3 presents the Class 2
DSM load reductions.
Table A.I - Post-DSM: Annual Forecasted Loads in Megawatt-hours
2010 58,776,967 13,934,638 4,44,722 933,910 24,015,188 9,962,276 3,283,744 2,198,489
2011 60,253,204 14,101,64 4,473,263 954,495 24,568,587 10,245,483 3,683,809 2,225,925
2012 62,176,645 14,497,750 4,521,492 978,476 25,496,875 10,681,488 3,747,208 2,253,356
2013 63,798,306 14:650,217 4,525,633 986,167 26,34,640 11,153,448 3,858,407 2,280,793
2014 65,34,382 14,725,514 4,539,637 991,162 27,116,354 11,643,371 4,018,131 2,308,214
2015 66,648,Q8 14,759,345 4,560,025 997,390 27,785,661 12,160,237 4,049,744 2,33,646
2016 67,922,111 14,815,517 4,588,859 1,006,800 28,537,680 12,525,142 4,085,052 2,363,061
2017 68,66,820 14,825,635 4,594,573 1,009,979 28,985,615 12,749,691 4,107,829 2,390,50
2018 69,617,821 14,901,646 4,627,356 1,020,071 29,515,028 12,990,055 4,145,748 2,417,916
2019 70,619,033 15,001,967 4,657,755 1,029,728 30,04,993 13,257,315 4,181,919 2,44,357
Table A.2 - Post-DSM: Annual Forecasted Coincidental Peak Loads in Megawatts
2010 9,773 2,210 745 151 4,488 1,244 592 342
2011 10,050 2,237 754 155 4,590 1,279 683 352
2012 10,352 2,290 786 160 4,736 1,324 695 359
2013 10,602 2,318 771 163 4,885 1,379 719 368
2014 10,853 2,338 781 161 5,012 1,43 750 377
2015 11,060 2,34 789 163 5,121 1,491 767 384
2016 11,265 2,350 796 165 5,252 1,531 780 391
2017 11,414 2,359 803 170 5,341 1,557 786 398
j
67
PadfiCorp 2008 IRP Update Appendix A - Additonal Load Forecast and Resource Portolio Informaton
Table A.3 - Class 2 DSM Megawatt-hours included in Post-DSM Load Forecast,
2010-2019
2010 831,672 293,202 61,358 12,971 369,380 61,481 33,278
2011 1,266,622 441,432 92,239 19,361 554,352 109,532 49,706
2012 1,702,581 589,661 121,222 25,650 740,828 158,791 66,428
2013 2,147,603 737,890 152,083 32,009 934,138 208,263 83,220
2014 2,594,358 886,120 183,036 38,368 1,128,594 258,199 100,041
2015 2,956,456 1,031,744 206,978 43,154 1,261,842 300,254 112,484
2016 3,327,001 1,177,369 234,496 47,996 1,398,087 343,800 125,254
2017 3,649,607 1,271,596 261,431 52,963 1,537,731 387,628 138,258
2018 3,971,322 1,365,823 288,157 57,489 1,676,153 432,308 151,392
2019 4,30,632 1,460,051 315,439 62,248 1,820,160 476,773 165,962
DETAILED 20 i 0 BUSINESS PLAN PORTFOLIO
Table A.4 presents the detailed listig of resources in the 2010 business plan portfolio.
These resources reflect' a capacity expanion model run though 2028 in order to show
the resource mix impact of adding 800 MW of wid resources to meet an assumed
federal RPS requirement by 2025.
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