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HomeMy WebLinkAbout200806112007 IRP Update.pdfq r~::?: D : ~~l~ouNTAIN 200a Jm¡ II Al'~ 9=19 201 South Main, Suite 2300 Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 June 11,2008 VI OVERNIGHT DELIVERY Idaho Public Utilties Commission 472 West Washington Boise, ID 83702 Attn: Jean Jewell, Commission Secreta RE: Case No. PAC-E-07-11 PacifiCorp's 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (lRP) Update Dear Ms. Jewell: Enclosed are an originl and two (2) copies ofPacifiCorp's 2007 Integrted Resource Plan (IR) Update. This 2007 IRP Update is documentation of the plan that was presented and discussed at the Company's Februar 29, 2008, IR public input meeting. Copies of the report are available electronically and will be posted on PacifiCorp's website, at ww.pacificoro.com. The Company's 2007 IR was fied with the Idaho Public Utilities Commssion ("Commssion") on May 30, 2007. The 2007 IRP Update is submitted to the Commssion pursuat to the IR guidelines issued in Order No. 27835, as modified by Order No. 30262. The Company plans on filing its 2009 IRP no later than March 31, 2009. The 2007 IR Update is being submitted for inormational puroses only. Since the Company expects to file its next IRP in March 2009, it does not request acknowledgment of its 2007 IRP Update. It is respectfuly requested that all formal correspondence and Staff requests regarding ths filing be addressed to the following: By E-mail (preferred):dataequest(ßpacificoro.com By Fax:(503) 813-6060 By regular mail:Data Request Response Center PacifiCorp 825 NE Multnomah, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 If there are informal inquiries concernng the filing, please contat Pete Waren, Manager Integrated Resource Planng at (503) 813-5518 or Ted Weston, Idaho Reguatory Affairs Manager at (801) 220-2963. Sincerely,~K- ~f*' Jeffey K. Larsen Vice President, Reguation Enclosures PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update This 2007 Integrated Resource Plan Update (IRP) Report is based upon the best available information at the time of preparation. The IRP action plan wil be implemented as described herein, but is subject to change as new information becomes available or as circumstances change. It is PacifiCorp's intention to revisit and refresh the IRP action plan no less frequently than anually. Any refreshed IRP action plan wil be submitted to the State Commissions for their information. Formore information, contact: PacifiCorp IRP Resource Planing 825 N.E. Multnoirah, Suite 600 Portland, Oregon 97232 (503) 813-5245 IRP(fPacifiCorp.com htt://ww.PacifiCorp.com This report is printed on recycled paper Cover Photos (Left to Right): Wind: Foot Creek 1 Hydroelectric Generation: Yale Reservoir (Washington) Demand side management: Agricultural Irrigation Thermal-Gas: Currant Creek Power Plant Transmission: South Central Wyoming line PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update TABLE OF CONTENT 1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................................1 _ Natual Gas and Power Market Price Updates.........................................................................................1 Natual Gas Market Prices.. .... ................... ..... ......... .......... .............. ..................... ..... .... ... .......... .... ..... i Electrcity Market Prices.............. ...... ...... ..... ... ......... .......... ............ ... ...... ............ ............. ........... ........2 Ination Rates ......... ........... .......... ......... ........ ................. ............. ............ ...... ...... ...... ............... .... ........ ....4 Carbon Dioxide Emission Costs and Compliance Assumptions .... ....... ............ .... .......... ........... .............4 2. Resource Needs Assessment Update .......................................................................................................5 Load Forecast...........................................................................................................................................5 Resources ..... ......... ... ....... ... ............... ......... ......... ... ....... ............ ............ ..... .... .......................................... 7 Significant Changes to Existing Resources........................ ............................... .... ............. .......... ........ 7 Significant Changes to Planed Resources ...........................................:.............................................. 7 Thermal............................................................................................................................................7 Wind Projects...................................................................................................................................8 Hydroelectric Plants.........................................................................................................................9 Kern River Recovered Energy Generation Project ............ .............. .............. ........ .... ...................... 9 Demand-Side Management Resources ..... ............. ........ ........... ...... ......................... ....... .......... ..... 10 Updated Capacity Balance .....................................................................................................................12 3. New Resource Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 17 Capital Costs. ...... ... ................................. .......... .......................... ....... ..... .......... ....... ..................... ......... 17 Treatment of Coal Resources ........ ...... ......... ................. ........ ........ .......... .... ....... ........... .......... ............... 17 Renewable Resources ..... ....... ....... ... ... ......... ............ ............. ....... ........... .... ....... .......... .......... ........ ........ 17 4. Transmission Resources......................................................................................................................... 17 5. Front Office Transactions ...................................................................................................................... 18 6. Business Plan Portfolio .......................................................................................................................... 19 7. Action Plan Update ................... ....... ....... .... ............. ..... ............. .......... ............. .......... .................. .........20 Action Plan Implementation ............ .......... .......... ....... .... ........... .... ... ... .... .......... ............ ........... .............25 Demand-Side Management.................. ..... ..... ............. .... ... ...... ... ............ ....... ............. ........ ...... ... ......25 Supply-Side Resource Procurement Activities ..................................................................................25 Renewable Request for Proposals (RFP 2008R) ...................................................................;.......25 Renewable Request for Proposal (RFP 2008R - I).............. ............. .... .............. ...... ................ .......25 Request For Proposal- 2008 All Source RFP ...............................................................................25 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update INDEX OF TABLES Table I - Inflation Rate Forecasts ................................................................................................................4 Table 2 - Anual Load Growth in Megawatt-hours Forecasted, 2008 through 2017...................................5 Table 3 - Forecasted Coincidental Peak Load in Megawatts .....:................................................................. 5 Table 4 - Anual Load Growth Change: October 2007 Forecast Less March 2007 Forecast...................... 6 Table 5 - Anual Coincidental Peak Growth Change: October 2007 Forecast Less March 2007 Forecast. 6 Table 6 - Thermal Upgrade Schedule...........................................................................................................8 Table 7 - Recent Wind Resource Additions .................................................................................................9 Table 8a - Demand-Side Resource Forecast Comparson by Year, 2008-2012......................................... 1 I Table 8b - Demand-Side Resource Forecast Comparison by Year, 2013-2017......................................... 11 Table 9 - Load and Resource Capacity Balance.........................................................................................15 Table 10 - 2008 Business Plan Capacity Balance Less 2007 IRP Capacity Balance................................. 16 Table I I - Resource Supply Side Options Capital Cost Increases ............................................................. 17 Table 12 - 2008 Business Plan Supply-Side :Resource Portolio ...............................................................19 Table 13 _ Updated Action Plan .................................................................................................................21 INDEX OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Henr Hub Natural Gas Prices (Nominal) ...................................................................................2 Figure 2 - Average Anual Flat Mid-Columbia Electrcity Prices............................................................... 3 Figue 3 - Average Anual Flat Palo Verde Electrcity Prices .................................................................... 3 Figure 4 - Capacity Position Comparson, 2007 IRP versus the 2008 Business Plan................................ 12 Figure 5 - System Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 2008 Business Plan ........................................ 13 Figure 6 - East Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 2008 Business Plan............................................. 13 Figure 7 - West Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 2008 Business Plan............................................ 14 Figure 8 - Modeled Transmission System Topology ................................................................................. 18 11 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update 1. INTRODUCTION This 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update report chronicles integrated resource plannng activities that occured subsequent to the filing of the 2007 Integrated Resource Plan on May 30, 2007, and that helped support the development of PacifiCorp's lO-year business plan for the period 2008-2017 ("2008 business plan"). As part of this support, PacifiCorp performed capacity expansion optimization modeling based on updated inputs and assumptions. The outcome of this modeling work was a revised 2008-2017 resource portfolio. This report first summarizes the significant changes made to inputs and assumptions relative to the 2007 IRP and used for business plan development, covering (l) natural gas and power market prices, (2) forecasted inflation rates, (3) carbon dioxide emission costs and regulatory assumptions, (4) the long-term load forecast, (5) the coincident summer peak capacity load and resource balance ("capacity balance"), (6) new resource assumptions, (7) the transmission topology, and (8) front office transactions. The updated resource pòrtolio is then presented along with associated changes to the 2007 IRP action plan. NATURAL GAS AN POWER MARKT PRICE UPDATES Natural Gas MarketPrIces PacifiCorp's natual gas prices are a blend of market forwards and a fudamentals forecast of long-term supply and demand. In both the 2007 IR and in the 2008 business plan, market forwards are used through the first 72 months of the cure. Over this 72 month period, the 2007 IRP reflects market forwards as of August 31, 2006 and the 2008 business plan reflects market forwards as of September 7, 2007. The long-term portion of the natural gas cure is based upon a fudamentals-based projection from external sources. Each of the external price projections are evaluated routinely to ensure that PacifiCorp' s natual gas price cure captues the best available information at any given point in time. A range of factors are considered when selecting the external~long-term price forecast. These factors include: ~ Underlying supply and demand fudarnental assumptions . Forecast documentation . Peer~to-peer forecast price comparisons . Forecast release date . Forecast horizon Figue 1 show the Henr Hub natual gas prices used to develop delivered natual gas prices in the 2007 IRP and in the 2008 business plan. Differences through about 2013 are driven largely by movements in the forward markets between August 2006 and September 2007. Variations in long-term prices beyond the market period reflect a migration from one external price forecast issued in August 2006 to another external projection issued in July 2007 consistent with the approach described above. 1 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Figure 1- Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices (Nominal) $13 $9 $12 $11 $10 $8 = ¡ $7¿ ~ $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ! -+ 2007 IRP -e 2008 Business Plan I Electricity Market Prices Electrcity prices are a blend of 72 months of market forwards and a fudamentals price projection developed with MIDAS - an hourly chronological dispatch model for the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC). As with natual gas prices, the 2007 IRP reflects market forwards for electricity as of August 31, 2006 and the 2008 business plan reflects market forwards as of September 7, 2007. Beyond the market portion of the electricity cure, the MIDAS price forecast reflects the same fundamentals natual gas price projections described in the Natual Gas Markets section above. Figure 2 shows the average anual flat electrcity price at Mid-Columbia as used in the 2007 IR and in the 2008 business plan. Figue 3 shows average anual flat electrcity prices at Palo Verde. For both markets, price differences through about 2013 are driven largely by movements in the forward electrcity markets between August 2006 and September 2007. Over this period, the relative increase in electricity prices was larger than the increase in natual gas prices, indicating growt in implied market heat rates. Variations in long-term prices beyond the market period are largely influenced by the changes to long-term natUal gas prices between August 2009 and September 2007. 2 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Figure 2 - Average Annual Flat Mid-Columbia Electricity Prices "j~~"VL~'" ..~~'~ ::~ "/~ ~ (5 ~A/ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ¡ ~ 2007 IR -e 2008 Business Plan : Figure 3 - Average Annual Flat Palo Verde Electricity Prices ~~ $50 $40 $100 -------- $90 $80 $70 $60 $30 $20 $10 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 j ~ 2007 IR -e 2008 Business Plan I 3 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update INFLATION RATES Where price forecasts and associated escalation rates were not established by external sources, IR simulations and price forecasts were performed with PacifiCorp's June 2007 infation rate schedule (See Table 1 below). Table 1 - Inflation Rate Forecasts 2007IR Calendar Average Annual Years Rate (%) 2007-2013 1.86 2014-2020 1.80 2021-2026 1.88 2008 Business Plan Calendar Average Annual Years Rate 2008-2014 1.96 2015-2021 1.90 2022-2027 1.90 CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION COSTS AN COMPLIANCE ASSUMTIONS For the 2008 business plan, the assumed carbon dioxide (C02) compliance mechanism for resource portfolio analysis is a cap-and-trade system. Subsequent to the filing of the 2007 IRP, PacifiCorp acquired a new module of the System Optimizer capacity expansion model that includes representation of cap-and-trade regulatory policies. The cap-and-trade functionality was used for business plan modeling. Cap-and-trade assumptions include the following: . Emissions peaking in 2011 (54.9 milion tons) and declining to 2007 emission levels by 2025, assuming straight-line anual decreases for modeling purposes . Straight-line anual emissions decreasing to 1990 levels by 20301 . An initial CO2 allowance price of$8.62/ton staring in 2012 (in 2008 dollars), and increasing at PacifiCorp's annual inflation rates In comparison, for the 2007 IRP, PacifiCorp simulated both CO2 tax and cap-and-trade policies. For stochastic production cost modeling, PacifiCorp modeled buying and sellng of CO2 emission allowances as an off-line set of spreadsheet calculations assuming a year-2000 emission cap, a $4.14/ton (2008 dollars) allowance price staing in 2010, a $6.34/ton (2008$) allowance price in 2011, and a $8.62/ton (2008$) allowance price in 2012, with prices escalated at PacifiCorp's forecasted inflation rates. i The emission cap in 2027, the last year ofthe 20-year study period, was 47.4 milion tons. 4 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update 2. RESOURCE NEEDS ASSESSMENT UPDATE LOAD FORECAST PacifiCorp updated its load forecast in October 2007. Relative to the 2007 IR load forecast prepared in March 2007, PacifiCorp system sales and coincident summer peak are virtlly unchanged from 2008 through 2016. 2017 and beyond sales and peak are revised slightly downward. The main drvers of the change in 2017 and beyond are an increase in Demand-Side Management (DSM) impacts and a decrease in the Wyoming new Industral forecast. Although the Wyoming new Industrial forecast is stil very strong, there is a decrease from the March 2007 forecast because of a lower growth forecast for the oil and gas sector. Tables 2 and 3 report the October 2007 anual load and coincidental peak load forecasts, respectively. Tables 4 and 5 show the forecast changes relative to the March 2007 load forecast used for the 2007 IR. Table 2 - Annual Load Growth in Megawatt-hours Forecasted, 2008 through 2017 Year Total OR WA WY CA UT ID.2 2008 60,492,210 15,339,034 4,522,63 i 9,462,260 938,784 24,622,561 5,384,698 .2009 62,189,571 15,377,514 4,539,415 10,423,043 943,430 25,261,101 5,421,129 2010 63,271,762 15,334,009 4,565,640 1l,OI9,325 95I,074 25,719,727 5,456,965 2011 64,268,367 15,317,970 4,596,175 II,400,485 958,144 26,288,439 5,48I,831 2012 65,506,284 15,299,183 4,622,603 I I,938,797 965,419 26,929,I56 5,524,656 2013 .66,893,227 15,284,852 4,644,877 12,689,116 . 973,643 27,515,113 5,557,774 2014 67,930,143 15,267,788 4,685,033 13,067,586 983,053 28,103,923 5,593,585 2015 68.880,593 15,250,377 4,736,761 13,397,459 994,755 28,643,793 5,627,175 2016 69,789,986 15,228,100 4,762,639 13,553,616 1,006,312 29,349,829 5,659,I59 2017 70,464,218 15,213,956 4,786,162 13,606,094 I,018,537 29,936,986 5,672,OI I . AAG 1.7%(0.1)%0.6%4.1%0.9%2.2%0.6%2008-2017 AAG 1.%0.6%I.2%(0.1)%1.3%2.4%0.7%2017-2027 Table 3 -Forecasted Coincidental Peak Load in Megawatts Year Total OR WA WY CA UT ID SE-ID 2008 9,776 2,422 731 1,167 147 4,419 578 331 2009 10,068 2,455 739 1,314 149 4,560 583 276 2010 10,276 2,477 744 1,378 151 4,656 584 305 2011 10,446 2,490 749 1,418 153 4,760 580 311 2012 10,745 2,502 757 1,485 148 4,975 576 367 2013 1 I,021 2,545 769 1,575 151 5,058 585 371 2014 11,239 2,598 778 1,614 153 5,182 586 355 2015 11,357 2,585 790 1,651 156 5,295 588 300 2 Idaho megawatt-hours include the Company's Southeast Idaho third-par load obligation. 5 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Year Total OR WA WY ..CA UT ID SE-ID 2016 11,591 2,573 788 1,686 158 5,497 582 342 2017 11,758 2,643 805 1,664 154 5,602 583 365 AAG 2.1%1.0%1.1%4.0%0.5%2.7%0.1%1.1%2008-2017 AAG 1.8%1.2%1.8%(0.1)%1.8%2.7%0.6%0.4%2017-2027 Table 4 - Annual Load Growth Change: October 2007 Forecast Less March 2007 Forecast (Avera2e Me2awatts) Year Total OR WA WY CA UT ID 2008 489,083 564,893 (54,663)(573,071)OO,175)552,086 10,012 2009 365,301 564,458 (69,474)(734,001)(10,371)607,918 6,770 2010 (667,669)406,94 i (255,364)0,000,073)-(28,435)225,718 (16,456) 2011 0,370,049)276,015 (304,351)0,441,729)730,699)173,737 (43,022) 2012 (1,521,152)141,506 (321,503)0,409,041)(32,953)161,441 (60,603) 2013 (1,411,634)10,594 (344,090)(1,029,301)(34,527 61,262 (75,573) 2014 0,595,718)(124,029)(348,258)(923,515)(35,125 (71,261)(93,531) 2015 (1,895,830)(259,873)(340,928)(848,524)(33,610).(294,320)(118,575) 2016 (2,515,536)(401,472)(363,051)(1,158,557)(32,300)(395,836)(164,320) 2017 (3,465,022)(535,864)(387,954)0,632,102)(30,571)(663,950)(214,580) AAG (0.6)%(0.8)%(0.7)%(0.6)% .(0.2)%(0.5)%(0.4)%2008-2017 Table 5 - Annual Coincidental Peak Growth Change: October 2007 Forecast Less March 2007 Forecast (Me2awatts) Year Total OR WA I WY CA UT il 2008 354 347 29 22 (0)10 (53) 2009 324 220 37 32 (0)140 (95) 2010 34 223 15 (38)10 (64) . (112) 2011 (28)176 (8)(55)25 (172)7 2012 (26)182 (9)(84)(7)2 (110) 2013 64 217 2 (38)(5)(3)(108) 2014 109 267 5 (34)(5)(2)(122) 2015 69 259 16 (18)(15)(42)(131) 2016 7 259 13 (47)(5)(50)(163) 2017 (291)253 7 (31)(8)(288)(124) . AAG (0.7)%(0.6)%(0.4)%(1.1)%(0.6)%(0.6)%(0.7)%2008-2017 6 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update The primary drivers for load forecast growth changes by customer class are summarized below. Residential ~ Increases in cooling load are expected, driven by central air conditioner saturation and larger homes . Where natual gas is available, decreases in heating saturation are forecasted Commercial . Increasing growth in the office and health care sectors are expected Industral . Wyoming oil and gas is stil forecasted to be the fastest growing sector, even though PacifiCorp is expecting slower growth from the previous forecast . The Wyoming industrial sales peak decreases slightly from 2017 to 2027 because several of the oil and gas fields wil be depleted, and energy sales to those fields will be reduced . New oil and gas industr growth is éxpected near Vernal, Utah . Oregon sales to wood product sectors are weaker, but sales to specialty food manufactuing, metal, and glass stil have a strong outlook RESOURCES Significant Changes to Existing Resources For the 2008 business plan, PacifiCorp reclassified two renewable energy projects from the planned to existing resource category due to these projects entering commercial service in 2007. These projects include the Marengo I wind project, a 78 tubine wind facility near Dayton, Washington with a capacity of 140.4-megawatts, and the Blundell geothermal expansion project, an II-megawatt bottoming-cycle enhancement to the Company's existing geóthermal facility. The other signficant resource change was removal of the 33-megawatt Cove Fort geothermal power purchase agreement as an existing resource. Significant Changes to Planned Resources Thermal In the company's effort to meet the growing demand for generation, and given the advancing technological improvements in steam turbine design and manufactuing, the most recent "dense . pack" tubine upgrade initiative is included in the 2008 business plan. This tubine upgrade initiative is intended to further enhance PacifiCorp's overall generation capability and cycle efficiency for each of the large thermal units in the generation fleet curently exceeding 300 megawatt in rated capacity.3 Table 6 shows the thermal upgrade schedule included in the 2008 3 Previous thermal plant upgrades pedormed by PacifiCorp over the last decade were referred to "aero-derivative steam path" (ADSP) technology, and was installed in most of the same large thermal unts being considered for the current dense pack tubine upgrades. The ADSP upgrades also introduced minor capacity upgrades and improvement in effciency though advancement in tubine technology beyond original equipment design. 7 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update business plan. The total increase in capacity from 2009 though 2013 is 202 megawatts. These upgrades are scheduled to occur durng each unit's next major planed overhauL. Table 6 - Thermal Upgrade Schedule . Me2awatt Capacity Increase. . Plant 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hunter 19 12 19 Huntigton 18 18 Johnston 18 Naughton 21 Wyodak 9 Jim Bridger 17 17 i 7 17 Cumulative Total 21 57 113 185 202 The generation increase available by installing new dense pack-designed high-pressure / intermediate-pressure tubines, and in some cases low pressure tubine components, is derived entirely through more efficient utilization of existing steam inlet conditions entering each of these turbine sections. Dense pack tubine technology until recently was only offered by a select few tubine manutactuers. Technology refinements that have occurred since the initial. introduction of the dense pack design have developed to a point that they are fairly robust and considered a well established offering for large power tubine upgrades. These improvements allow for an additional 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent improvement in generation over previous upgrade designs for each applicable unit without requirng any increases in fuel consumption or heat input in order to"achieve the additional generation. In as much as there is no requirement for additional fuel consumption to achieve the capacity and efficiency improvements, emission inventories remain unchanged and do not impact any of the existing environmeptal or regulatory limits established for the candidate units. Wind Projects Table 7 profiles new wind generation projects that have been reclassified from generic IRP resources to planned resources for the 2008 business plan. (Planed resources are those approved by the MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company (MEHC) board for inclusion in a capital budget.) Note that the expected in-service dates in table 7 reflect expectations at the time the 2008 business plan was prepared. 8 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update c Table 7 - Recent Wind Resource Additions Resource Nameplate Expeetealii- Name Location .MW Servce Date Goodnoe Hils Near Goldendale, Washington 99.0 2008 Marengo Near Dayton, Washington 70.2 2008Expansion 12 miles north of Glenrock, in Converse Rollng Hils County, Wyoming (the Glenrock Mine site 99.0 2008 for the Dave Johnston plant) 12 miles north of Glenrock, in Converse Glenrock County, Wyoming (the Glenrock Mine site 99.0 2008 for the Dave Johnston plant) Seven Mile Hil Eastern Carbon County near Medicine Bow,99.0 2008Wvoming High Plains Spans Albany County and eastern Carbon 99.0 2009County, Wyoming Hydroelectric Plants Both the 2007 IR and 2008 business plan included upgrades to the Swift No. 1 hydroelectric plant, totaling 75 megawatts by 2015. This project was reclassified from an existing resource to a planed resource for reporting in PacifiCorp's capacity balance. While PacifiCorp's hydro tubine generator overhaul program is expected to provide incremental improvements to the overall generating capacity of the hydro portfolio, the upgrade potential at the Swift NO.1 project has been identified as a significant opportity to provide an economic alternative for. helping to address the expiring Mid-Columbia capacity and energy purchase contracts. The Swift NO.1 project is also expected to be an increasingly importnt resource to PacifiCorp, providing the majority of the system's load control and reserve support. This upgrade project wil enhance the Swift NO.1 plant's ability to provide that support. As envisioned, the project wil consist of a major hydraulic tubine overhaul with ruer replacement, an electrical generator winding upgrade, a generator bus upgrade, generation step- up transformer upgrades (two units), installation of dedicated generator breakers, possible civil upgrades to the penstock and surge tank, and related plant system upgrades. This project will increase the total generating capability of the Swift No. i hydroelectrc plant to 315 megawatts. Kern River Recovered Energy Generation Project PacifiCorp is teaming with Kern River Gas Transmission Company, a subsidiary of MEHC, to develop waste heat recovery/electric generation facilities at several compressor stations along Kern River's gas pipeline in southwestern Wyoming and Utah. The project wil employ the ORMAT Energy Converter system (developed by ORMT Technologies, Inc.), an organic Ranke cycle technology that produces no air emissions due to the closed-loop nature of the 9 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update system. These combined heat and power facilities, expected to be in service by 2010, wil provide 19 megawatts of nameplate generation capacity. Demand-Side Management Resources Two key DSM planning developments that occured after the filing of the 2007 IR was the completion of a third-part system-wide demand-side resource potential assessment study made available to PacifiCorp in June 20074, and the passage of Oregon Senate Bil 838, which created an opportity for fuding increased amounts of cost-effective energy efficiency resources in the State of Oregon. As a result of these developments, PacifiCorp made significant changes to the forecasts for dispatchable load control (Class 1) and energy efficiency (Class 2) DSM programs originally used for" the 2007 IR. These updated forecasts were incorporated in the 2008 business plan. For dispatchable load control programs, the new forecast is for 272 megawatts by 2012, compared with 258 megawatts by 2013 for the 2007 IRP. To arrve at the new figues, PacifiCorp used non-resource-specific, high-end estimates based on 2007 IRP modeling work. Tables 8a and 8b report the original 2007 IRP annual Class 1 DSM program amounts along with the incremental increases assumed for the 2008 business plan. (Cumulative and percentage changes between the 2007 IR and 2008 business plan are shown at the bottom of the table.) For energy efficiency programs, the new 2008 business plan load reduction forecast is 4.6 milion megawatt-hours by 2017, compared with 1.8 milion megawatt-hours for the 2007 IRP. To arve at the adjusted forecast, PacifiCorp used the information provided in the DSM potentials study and applied adjustments to account for recent program implementation experience and market conditions. The Company first applied an economic screen to the energy efficiency potential amounts based on the 2007 IR decrement values plus 15 percent.5 An increase to the assumed achievable potential-from 55 percent to 70 percent-was also made, as well as a slight acceleration in the 20-year acquisition timeline. For the Oregon targets, the Company worked with the Energy Trust of Oregon to develop a revised forecast of energy efficiency opportnities. Table 8a and 8b report the original 2007 IRP anual Class 2 DSM program amounts along with the incremental increases assumed for the 2008 business plan. (Cumulative and percentage changes between the 2007 IRP and 2008 business plan are shown at the bottom of the table.) The Class 2 DSM targets are applied as decrements to the load forecast as was done for the 2007 IRP.6 4 The DSM potentials study, conducted by Quantec LLC, provided PacifiCorp more information on the opportnities for demand-side resource investments should they be found to be cost-effective through the 2008 IRP modeling process.5 Preliminar resource screening for cost-effectiveness was performed as part of the original potentials estimation project.6 Resource supply cures wil be used for portolio development for the 2008 IRP to determine the cost-effective magnitude and value of energy effciency programs as compared to supply-side resource options. 10 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Table 8a - Demand-Side Resource Forecast Comparison by Year, 2008-2012 2008 ..2009 ...2010 2011 2012 Class 1 Load Management - 2007 IRP 163 163 163 163 210 Incremental Additions (MW)37 47 57 67 62 Total Class 1 Load Management - 10-yr Plan 200 210 220 230 272 Class 2 Energy Effciency (MWh) - 2007 IRP 247,207 214,532 207,262 200,429 198,239 Class 2 Capacity Impact (MW)-2007IRP 47 41 39 38 38 Incremental energy effciency (MWh)103,018 178,967 242,914 273,487 288,029 Incremental capacity Impact (MW)20 34 46 52 55 Class 2 Total Energy Effciency (MWh) -10-yr Plan 350,225 393,499 450,176 473,916 486,268 Class 2 Capacity Impact (MW) -10-yr Plan 67 75 85 90 93 C I t F &P Cumu a ive orecasts ercent hanDe Class 1 Load ManaQement (MW) 2007 IRP 163 163 163 163 210 Class 1 Load Management (MW) 10-yr Plan 200 210 220 230 272 % change capacity 23%29%35%41%30% Class 2 energy effciency (MWh) 20071RP 247,207 461,739 669,001 869,430 1,067,669 Class 2 energy effciency (MW) 2007 IRP 47 88 127 165 203 Class 2 enerav.effciencv (MWh) 10-vr Plan 350,225 743,724 1,193,900 1,667,816 2,154,084 Class 2 energy effciency (MW) 10-yr Plan 67 142 227 317 410 % change forecast 42%61%78%92%102% Table 8b - Demand-Side Resource Forecast Comparison by Year, 2013-2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Class 1 Load Management- 2007 IRP 258 258 258 258 258 Incremental Additions (MW)14 14 14 14 14 Total Class 1 Load Management -10-yr Plan 272 272 272 272 272 Class 2 Energy Effciency (MWh) - 2007 IRP 197,801 189,917 185,274 182,296 - Class 2 Capacity Impact (MW)- 2007 IRP 37 36 35 35 - Incremental energy effciency (MWh)288,467 296,350 300,994 303,971 487,144 Incremental capacity Impact (MW)55 56 57 58 92 Class 2 Total.Energy Effciency (MWh)- 10-yr Plan 486,268 486,267 486,268 486,267 487,144 Class 2 Capacity Impact (MW) -10-yr Plan 92 92 92 93 92 Cumulative Forecasts & Percent ChanDe Class 1 Load ManaQement (MW) 20071RP 258 258 258 258 258 Class 1 Load Management (MW) 10-yr Plan 272 272 272 272 272 % change capacity 5%5%5%5%5% Class 2 energy effciency (MWh) 2007 IRP 1,265,470 1,455,387 1,640,661 1,822,957 1,822,957 Class 2 energy effciency (MW) 20071RP 240 276 311 346 346 Class 2 enerav effciency (MWh)10-vr Plan 2,640,352 3,126,619 3,612,887 4,099,154 4,586,298 Class 2 energy effciency (MW) to-yr Plan 502 594 686 779 871 %. change forecast 109%115%120%125%152% 11 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update UPDATED CAPACITY BALANCE Figue 4 compares the anual capacity positions for the 2007 IR and the 2008 business plan. Both positions assume a 12-percent plannng reserve margin (PRM). For the 2008 business plan, the system capacity position becomes deficit two years earlier relative to the position reported in the 2007 IRP. The early-year position differences are attibuted to the higher relative projected loads in the Western Control Area. After 2010 the differences between the two capacity positions are relatively smalL. Figure 4 - Capacity Position Comparison, 2007 IRP versus the 2008 Business Plan 1,000 - 500 ~-! 0 -í"r-,.-~-r-r-,.--- --,rl, (500)I---I-~---, - (1,000)--I-~--I- !i 1ü~(1,500)------, IIcici:i (2,000)--I----' , (2,500)------'--- (3,000)---- (3,500) ~ D20071RP - i .2008 Business Plan , (4,000) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Figues 5 through 7 show the 2008 business plan's capacity peak load and resource gaps for the system, Eastern Control Area, and Western Control Area, respectively. Table 9 reports the detailed load and resource line items for the capacity balance. 12 PacifCorp -2007 IRP Update Figure 5 - System Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 2008 Business Plan ,,~ I 12,00 1 I 10,000 L 8,00 J~ .~ ¡ .... 4.00 ... .. Obligation + Reserves (12%) 2,000 o 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ~------- Figure 6 - East Coincident Peak Loads and Resources, 2008 Business Plan 14.000 12,000 10,00 Eo;' Obi~"'o" r.~:": .. 8.000 3::: . 6,000 4,000 2,000 o i2017 !2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 I , i I I I: i 13 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Figure 7 - West CoinCident Peak Loads and Resources, 2008 Business Plan 8,000 3:~ 14.000 12,000 10,000 6,000 West Obligation + Reserves (12%) 1 4,000 2,000 o 2008 2014 2015 2017201620092010201120122013 14 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Table 9 - Load and Resource Capacity Balance Planning Reserve Margin Target = 12% Calendar Year 2008 2009 2010 "2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Thermal 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 5,932 Hydro 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 DSM 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 0 Renewable 109 109 109 109 109 109 109 105 105 105 Purchase 704 828 648 668 493 493 493 493 472 472 OF 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 105 Interruptible 212 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 East Existing Resources 7,361 7,601 7,421 7,441 7,266 7,266 7,266 7,262 7,241 7,077 Load 6,547 6,725 6,975 7,130 7,404 7,612 7,782 7,827 8,147 8,208 Sale 836 752 766 756 745 745 745 745 745 659 East Obligation 7,383 7,477 7,741 7,886 8,149 8,357 8,527 8,572 8,892 8,867 Planning reserves (12%)756 739 792 807 860 .885 905 911 951 968 Non-owned reserves 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 72 East Reserves 827 810 863 878 930 955 976 981 1,022 1,040 East Obligation + Reserves 8,210 8,287 8,604 8,764 9,079 9,312 9,503 9,553 9,914 9,907 East Position (850)(686)(1,183)(1,323)(1,813)(2,046)(2,237)(2,291)(2,673)(2,830) East Reserve Margin 0%3%(3%)(5%)(10%)(12%)(14%)(15%)(18%)(20%) West Thermal 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 Hydro 1,421 1,414 1,328 1,332 1,175 1,174 1,168 1,169 1,168 1,177 DSM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renewable 118 118 118 118 94 94 94 94 94 94 Purchase 800 800 800 750 112 141 107 107 107 107 OF 40 40 40 40 40 38 38 38 38 38 West Existing Resources 4,425 4,401 4,314 4,268 3,450 3,493 3,454 3,455 3,453 3,441 Load 3,228 3,343 3,302 3,316 3,341 3,409 3,457 3,531 3,444 3,550 Sale 299 299 290 290 258 258 258 158 108 108 West Obligation 3,527 3,642 3,592 3,606 3,599 3,667 3,715 3,689 3,552 3,658 Planning reserves (12%)327 341 335 343 418 423 433 430 413 426 Non-owned reserves 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 West Reserves 334 348 342 349 425 430 439 436 420 434 West Obligation + Reserves 3,861 3,990 3,933 3,955 4,024 4,097 4,154 4,125 3,972 4,091 West Position 564 411 381 314 (575)(603)(700)(670)(518)(651) West Reserve Margin 28%23%23%21%(4%)(4%)(7%)(6%)(3%)(6%) System Total Resources 11,786 12,002 11,735 11,710 10,716 10,760 10,721 0,717 10,695 10,517 Obligation 10,910 11,119 11,333 11,492 11,748 12,024 12,242 2,261 12,444 12,525 Reserves 1,161 1,157 1,204 1,227 1,355 1,385 1,415 1,417 1,442 1,473 BP Obligation + Reserves 12,071 12,276 12,537 12,719 13,104 13,409 13,657 13,678 13,886 13,998 BP System Position (294)(285)(813)(1,020) (2,398)(2,664)(2,950)(2,975)(3,202)(3,495) Reserve Margin 9%10%5%3%(8%)(10%)(12%)(12%)(14%)(16%) Table i 0 reports the anual line item differences between the capacity balances for the 2008 business plan and 2007 IRP. For the Eastern Control Area, significant changes included the addition of a Public Service Company of Colorado exchange contract, modification to the Monsanto interrptible load contract, and a decrease in the Wyoming load forecast. For the Western Control Area, changes included an increase in forecasted loads and reclassification of the Swift No. i upgrade and wind projects. 15 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Table 10 - 2008 Business Plan Capacity Balance Less 2007 IR Capacity Balance Planning Reserve Margin Target = 12% Calendar Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 East Thermal (9)(9)(9)(9)(9)(9)(9)(9)(9) Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DSM 0 0 0 ' 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renewable (0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0) Purchase 25 50 100 125 150 150 150 150 150 OF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interruptible (21)20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 East Existing Resources (5)61 111 136 161 161 161 161 161 Load 32 68 (162)(159)(191)(126)(113)(199)(219) Sale 25 50 100 125 150 150 150 150 150 East Obligation 57 118 (62)(34)(41)24 37 (49)(69) Planning reserves (12%)6 6 (22)(21)(25)(18)(16)(26),(29) Non-owned reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 East Reserves 6 6 (22)(21)(25)(18)(16)(26)(29) East Obligation + Reserves 63 124 (84)(55)(66)6 21 (75)(98) East Position (68)(63)195 192 228 155 140 237 259 East Reserve Margin (1%)(1%)2%2%3%2%2%3%3% West Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 (25)(50)(75)(75)(75)(75) DSM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renewable 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Purchase 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 West Existing Resources 1.(7)(6)(32)(57)(64)(64)(64)(64) Load 304 248 178 117 101 158 195 260 192 Sale 0 0 0 0 0 0 (0)(0)(0) West Obligation 304 248 178 117 101 158 195 260 192 Planning reserves (12%)37 30 21 14 12 19 23 31 23 Non-owned reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 West Reserves 37 30 21 14 12 19 23 31 23 West Obligation + Reserves 341 278 200 131 113 177 218 291 215 West Position (330)(285)(206)(163)(170)(241)(283)(356)(279) West Reserve Margin (12%)(9%)(7%)(5%)(4%)(6%)(7%)(9%)(7%) System Total Resources 5 54 104 105 104 97 97 97 97 Obligation 361 366 116 83 60 182 232 211 123 Reserves 43 36 (1 )(7)(13)1 7 5 (6) Obligation + Reserves 404 402 116 76 47 183 239 216 117 System Position (408)(358)(22)18 48 (101)(157)(133)(31) Reserve Margin (4%)(3%)(0%)0%1%(0%)(1%)(1%)0% 16 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update 3. NEW RESOURCE ASSUMPTIONS CA.PITALCOSTS Capital costs for supply-side resources were adjusted to reflect recent escalation trends, and in the case of coal, studies used to support benchmark resource development for the 2012 base load Request for Proposals. Table 1 i shows the per-kilowatt and percentage increases in average capital costs by technology tye relative to those costs assumed for the 2007 IRP. Table 11 - Resource Supply Side Options Capital Cost Increases Average Capital Increases by Resource Type 2008 Business Plan versus 2007 IRP Type $/kW Percent Coal 1,221.5 49% Gas 87.4 12% Renewables 459.9 21% TREATMENT OF COAL RESOURCES PacifiCorp excluded supercritical pulverized coal and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (lGCC) as resource options for 2008 business plan portfolio modeling. This resource selection constraint reflects PacifiCorp's view that for the 10-year business planing horizon, coal resources are not viable resource options given (I) cost uncertainty associated with potential CO2 regulations, (2) new state energy policies in California, Oregon, and Washington, (3) permitting issues and challenges, and (4) uncertainty regarding the availability and costs of clean coal technologies. RENEWABLE RESOURCES The wind resources reflected in the 2007 IRP preferred portfolio, procured in the 2008 through 2013 period, were updated to match 2008 business plan assumptions for star dates, sites, and capacities. These updated wind resources, totaling 1,270 nameplate megawatts, were fixed in the System Optimizer modeL. These fixed wind resources are shown in the 2008 business plan resource portfolio (Table 12). 4. TRASMISSION RESOURCES Figue 8 shows the modeled transmission system topology used for 2008 business plan portfolio modeling. This topology incorporates the Energy Gateway Transmission Expansion project as anounced on May 30, 2007. The seven new transmission links associated with the expansion project are identified with red arows in the topology diagram. 17 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update Figure 8 - Modeled Transmission System Topology \t. ¡¡";- t I ) ~"Q: ~ --r-~ ('\ ~/ ç ri 11: '" ~VÆtJ Ar~a 1 IMead ~ ~\ APS _ ChoUa !t~ ~I Palo Verd ,/ ,'~ I C. . .~ $ ~/ ~ ì.ç Lod t ~ ::::::~aleMarkets ~ ~ ContrctExchanges "' " ~ ~\ .. Owed Transmission on PacifiCorp ~ L- Prnted on: 10/02106 5. FRONT OFFICE TRASACTIONS For the 2008 business plan, a number of changes to front offce transaction assumptions were made.7 These changes relate to the products selected as proxy resources in some of the markets, and the annual maximum quantities available at each market. The changes-incorporated in the System Optimizer model-were prompted' by an updated assessment of market product and supporting transmission availability, as well as the impact of the Energy Gateway Transmission Expansion project. The front office transaction specifications, by market area, are profied below. . Mid-Columbia Market Third-quarter, heavy-Ioad-hour (HLH) product (previously modeled as a flat annual product for the 2007 IR) Maximum annual amount: 400 megawatts for 2007-2026 7 Front offce transactions are proxy resources representing forward firm purchases used to help Pacificorp meet its load and planing reserve requirements, $18 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update . California Oregon Border Market Flat anual product Maximum anual amount: 400 megawatts for 2007-2026 . Mona Market Third-quarter HLH product Maximum annual amount: 200 megawatts for 2007-2026 . Mead Market Third-quarer HLH product Maximum anual amount: 0 megawatts for 2007-2012,600 megawatts for 2013-2026 . F our Comers Third-quaer HLH product Maximum annual amount: 0 megawatts for 2007-2017, 500 megawatts for 2018-2026 6. BUSINESS PLAN PORTFOLIO PacifiCorp used the System Optimizer to develop a resource portfolio based on the updated inputs and assumptions described above. While 20-yèar optimizations were conducted, the focus of portfolio development was to refine the selection and timing of gas resources and front office transactions for the business plan time horizon, 2008-2017. Table 12 shows the resulting supply-side resource portfolio that was used for development of the 2008 business plan. (The business plan DSM resources are shown in Tables 8a and 8b.) Note that resources are shown by their in-service years rather than the years they first are available to meet sumer peak load requirements. For example, most renewable resources are assumed to enter commercial service by December of a given year. Table 12 - 2008 Business Plan Supply-Side Resource Portfolio Nameplate Capacity,MW11 Resource Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Upl!des - theral genertion Various cast coal-fired units -21 36 38 37 ----- Comhined cycle CT 2x i F class with duct finn!!----1,096 ----- Geothermal Blundell --35 ------- Comhined heat and Dower Generic east-wide --19 ---.--- Renewahle Wind, Wyoming 300 100 100 200 -200 ---- Front offce trnsactJons 'JJ Heavy load hour, 3rd quartr ----115 633 746 800 800 783 West Upgrdes - thermal ~enertion Jim Bridper coal-fired units -17 17 17 17 ---- Ummides - hvdro ~enertion Swift Hvdro -"---25 25 25 -- Renewable Wind, North-central Oregon --200 -100 ----- Renewable Wind, Southeast Washington 70 --------. Front offce trnsactions 2/Flat annual product 400 400 389 389 400 400 400 388 338 400 Front offce trnsactions 1 Heavy load hour, 3rd cuarer --268 347 400 59 144 101 334 548 Annual Additions; Long Ten Resources 370 121 408 256 1,250 242 25 25 -. Annual Additions, Shor Ter Resources 400 400 657 736 915 1,092 1,290 1,289 1,472 1,731 .T oial Annual Additions 770 521 1,065 992 2,165 1,334 1,315 1,314 1,472 1,731 II Resources are shown by their In-service date as opposed to the year for which they meet the system peak. 21 Front offce transaction amounts reflect purchases made for the year, and are not additive, 19 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update 7. ACTION PLAN UPDATE This section proyides the updated IR Action Plan, modified as a result of 2008 business planng activities. The Action Plan update is presented as Table 13. Changes to the original plan have been highlighted. PacifiCorp's update to the 2007 IRP Action Plan covers Demand Side Management, Resource Procurement, and IR Acknowledgement. 20 Pa c i f C o r p - 2 0 0 7 I R P U p d a t e Ta b l e 1 3 - U p d a t e d A c t i o n P l a n I Si z e (r o u n d e d t o I th e n e a r e s t Ca l e n d a r - 50 M W f o r Ye a r ge n e r a t i o n .l t e n t Ca t e l ! O r v Ac t i o n Tv p e Ti m i n 2 re s o u r c e s ) Lo c a t i o n Ac t i o n .. . . Ac q u i r e 2 , 0 0 0 M W o f re n e w ab I e s b y 2 0 1 3 , i n c l u d i n g t h e 1 , 4 0 0 Ne w MW o u t l n e d i n t h e R e n e w a b l e P l a n , S e e k t o a d d t r a n s m i s s i o n 1 Re n e w a b l e s Re n e w a b l e s 20 0 7 - 2 0 1 3 2, 0 0 0 Sy s t e m in f r a s t r u c t u r e a n d f l e x i b l e g e n e r a t i n g r e s o u r c e s , s u c h a s n a t u r a l ga s , t o i n t e g r a t e n e w w i n d r e s o u r c e s . P a c i f i C o r p h a s i n i t i a t e d tw o R F P s i n 2 0 0 8 t o s u n n o r t t l i i s a c n u i s i t i o n n l a n . Us e d e e r e m e n t v a l u e s t o a s s e s s c o s t e f f e e t i v e n e s s o f n e w pr o g r a m p r o p o s a l s . A c q u i r e t h e b a s e C l a s s 2 D S M ( P a c i f i c Po w e r a n d E T O c o m b i n e d , i n c l u d i n g e n e r g y s a v i n g s i n O r e g o n be y o n d t h a t f u n d e d b y t h e E T O ) o f i s 3 0 0 M W a a n d 2 0 0 M W a or m o r e o f a d d i t i o n a l C l a s s 2 D S M i f r i s k - a d j u s t e d c o s t - e f f e c t i v e in i t i a t i v e s c a n b e i d e n t i f i e d , W i l w o r k w i t h t h e E T O t o i d e n t i f y Ex i s t i n g a n d su c h n e w e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y i n i t i a t i v e s a n d f i e t h e n e c e s s a r y ta r i f f s w i t h t h e P u b l i c U t i l t y C o m m i s ~ i o h o f Or e g o n . W i l 2 DS M Ne w C l a s s 2 20 0 7 - 2 0 1 4 45 0 M W a Sy s t e m re a s s e s s C l a s s 2 o b j e c t i v e s u p o n c o m p l e t i o n o f s y s t e m - w i d e pr o g r a m s DS M p o t e n t i a l s t u d y . W i l i n c o r p o r a t e p o t e n t i a l s s t u d y f i n d i n g s in t o t h e 2 0 0 7 I R P u p d a t e a n d 2 0 0 8 i n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g pr o c e s s e s , i n c l u d i n g d e v e l o p i n g s u p p l y c u r v e s , m o d e l i n g t h e m as p o r t f o l i o o p t i o n s t h a t c o m p e t e w i t h s u p p l y - s i d e o p t i o n s , an d a n a l y z i n g c o s t a n d r i s k r e d u c t i o n b e n e f i s . M o d e l i n g a l s o wi l t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t t h e b e n d i t s o f c o n s e r v a t i o n i n r e d u c i n g th e c o s t s o f c o m n l v i l i l J w i t h R ( ~ n e w a b l e P o r t f o l i o S t a n d a r d s . Ta r g e t s w e r e e s t a b l i s h e d t h r o u g h p o t e n t i a l s t u d y w o r k p e r f o r m e d fo r t h e 2 0 0 7 I R P . 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A n e w p o t e n t i a l s t u d y ~ i s e x p e e t e E 1 - t ø - l l 3 DS M Ne w C l a s s 1 20 0 7 - 2 0 1 4 10 0 Ea s t - 5 0 co m p l e t e d b y J u n e 2 0 0 7 , a n d a s s o c i a t e d f i n d i n g s w i l b e pr o g r a m s We s t - 5 0 in c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e 2 0 0 7 u p d a t e a n d t h e 2 0 0 8 i n t e g r a t e d re s o u r c e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s e s , i n d u d i n g d e v e l o p i n g s u p p l y cu r v e s , m o d e l i n g t h e m a s p o r t f o l i o o p t i o n s t h a t c o m p e t e w i t h su p p l y - s i d e o p t i o n s , a n d a n 1 ! z i n g c o s t a n d r i s k r e d u c t i o n I be n e f i t s . 21 Pa c i f C o r p - 2 0 0 7 I R P U p d a t e , Si z e (r o u n d e d t o th e n e a r e s t ", Ca i e n d i i r ~ 50 MW fo r , Ye a r ge n e r a t i o n It e m Ca t e 2 o r y ' . . Ac t i o n Tv p e Ti m i n ! ! re s o u r c e s ) Lo c a t i o n Ac t i o n Al t h o u g h n o t c u r r e n t l y i n t h e b a s e r e s o u r c e s t a c k , t h e c o m p a n y Ex i s t i n g a n d To be wi l s e e k t o l e v e r a g e C l a s s 3 a n d 4 r e s o u r c e s t o i m p r o v e s y s t e m 4 DS M Ne w C l a s s 3 20 0 7 - 2 0 1 4 de t e r m i n e d Sy s t e m re l i a b i l i t y d u r i n g p e a k l o a d h o u r s . W i l i n c o r p o r a t e p o t e n t i a l pr o g r a m s st u d y f i n d i n g s i n t o t h e 2 0 0 7 u p d a t e a n d / o r 2 0 0 8 i n t e g r a t e d re s o u r c e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s e s , Pu r s u e a t l e a s t 7 5 M W o f C H P g e n e r a t i o n f o r t h e w e s t - s i d e a n d Di s t r i b u t e d Co m b i n e d 25 M W f o r t h e e a s t - s i d e , t o i n c l u d e p u r c h a s e o f C H P o u t p u t 5 Ge n e r a t i o n He a t a n d 20 0 7 - 2 0 1 4 10 0 Sy s t e m pu r s u a n t t o P U R P A r e g u l a t i o n s a n d f r o m s u p p l y - s i d e R F P Po w e r ( C H P ) ou t c o m e s . T h e p o t e n t i a l s t u d y r e s u l t s w i l b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o th e 2 0 0 7 u p d a t e a n d 2 0 0 8 i n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s e s , 6 Di s t r i b u t e d St a n d b y 20 0 7 - 2 0 1 4 To be Sy s t e m Wi l i n c o r p o r a t e p o t e n t i a l s t u d y f i n d i n g s i n t o t h e 2 0 0 7 u p d a t e Ge n e r a t i o n Ge n e r a t o r s de t e r m i n e d an d 2 0 0 8 i n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s e s Ba s e L o a d / Pr o c u r e b a s e l o a d / i n t e r m e d i a t e l o a d / s u m m e r p e a k r e s o u r c e s 7 Su p p l y - S i d e 1n t e n n e d i a t e 20 1 2 - 2 0 1 6 ~2 , 0 0 0 Sy s t e m sy s t c m - w i d c Í l a s b y t h e s u m m e r o f 2 0 1 2 t h r o u g h 2 0 i 6 , Lo a d / Ea Th i s i s p a r t o f i l e r e q u i r e m e n t i n c l u d e d i n t h e 2 0 1 2 B a s e L o a d Su m m c r P c a k RF P a n d t h c 2 0 0 8 A l l S o u r c c R F P Ba s e L o a d / Pr o e u r e a b a s e l o a d / i n t e r m è t i i a t e l o a d r e s a u r e e . i n - t h e - e a s t & Su p p l y S i d e In t e r m e d i a t e it ~ Ea by t h e S l l n i n e r a £ 2 0 1 2 . T h i s i s p a r t a f t h e r e q u i r e m e R t bt d in e h i d e d i n t h e B a s e L o a d R F P Ba s e L o a d / Pr o e u r e a b a s e l o a d / i R t e r l n e t i i a t e l o a d r e s a u r e e i n t h e e a s t 9 Su p p l y S i d e In t e r m e d i a t e iM ~ Ea by t h e s u m m e r o f 2 0 1 4 . T h i s i s p a r t o f t h e r e q u I r e m e R t bo o in e l u d e d i R t h e B a s e L o a d R F P 22 Pa c i f C o r p - 2 0 0 7 I R P U p d a t e .. ... . . . ... . . Si z e . . (r o u n d e d t o th e n e å r e s t Ca I e n d a r - 50 MW f o r .. Ca t e ! ! o I " . . . . . Ye a r ge n e r a t i o n iI t e i u . A c t i o n t v o e Ti m i n ! ! re s o u r c e s ) Lo c a t i o n Ac t i o n .. . Ra s e L o a d / ln y e s t i g a t e a b a s e l o a d I i n t e r m e d i a t e l o a d r e s o u r e e i n t l l( Su p p l y S i d e In t e r m e d i a t e ~ ~ Ea t ea s t b y t h e s u m m e r o f 2 0 1 6 . + m £ - s - n o l - p l H t j -L o a - à re q u i r e m e n t i " e l u d e d i n t h e ßa s e L o a d R F I ' .ß b o lr o e u r e a b a s e l o a d I i n t e r m e E i l i a t e l o a d r e s o u r e e i n t I i e w e s t .. Su p p l y S i d e In t e r m e d i a t e WH (t W- e by t h e S 1 : l l l m e r o f 2 0 i i 20 1 2 -L .ß Pr o e 1 : r e b a s e l o a d / i n t e r m e d i H t e l o a d r e s o u r e e b e g i n n i n g i n ßi ii Su p p l y S i d e ll e r m e à 20 1 ( ~ 2 0 1 4 35 0 6 5 0 We t th e s u m m e r o f 2 0 1 0 , u s e t h e R a s e L o a d R F P a s a p p r o p r i a t e -L d to f i l l t h e n e e d i n t h e e a s t Pu r s u e t h e a d d i t i o n o f t r a n s m i s s i o n f a c i l i t i e s o r w h e e l i n g 20 1 0 a n d co n t r a c t s a s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e I R P t o c o s t - e f f e c t i v e l y m e e t r e t a i l 13 Tr a n s m i s s i o n Tr a n s m i s s i o n be y o n d Va r i o u s Sy s t e m lo a d r e q u i r e m e n t s , i n t e g r a t e w i n d a n d p r o v i d e s y s t e m r e l i a b i l i t y , Wo i : k w i t h o t h e r t r a n s m i s s i o n p r o v i d e r s t o f a c i l i t a t e j o i n t p r o j e c t s - w h e r e a p p r o p r i a t e 14 Cl i m a t e C h a n g e St r a t e g y a n d On g o i n g No t Sy s t e m Co n t i n u e t o h a v e d i a l o g u e w i t h s t a k e h o l d e r s o n G l o b a l C l i m a t e Po l i c y ap p l i c a b l e Ch a n g e i s s u e s Ev a l u a t e t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t c a n r e d u c e t h e c a r b o n d i o x i d e Ca r b o n - em i s s i o n s o f t h e c o m p a n y ' s r e s o u r c e p o r t f o l i o i n a c o s t - e f f e c t i v e 15 Re d u c i n g St r a t e g y a n d On g o i n g No t Sy s t e m ma n n e r , i n c l u d i n g b u t n o t l i m i t e d t o , c l e a n c o a l , s e q u e s t r a t i o n , Te c h n o l o g y Po l i c y ap p l i c a b l e an d n u c l e a r p o w e r . F o r t h e 2 0 0 8 f l U ' , i n c l u d e I G e e p l a n t s wi t h c a r b o n c a p t u r e a n d s e q u e s t r a t i o n a s a r e s o u r c e o p t i o n fo r s e l e c t i o n . 16 1R P P l a n n i n g Mo d e l i n g a n d 20 0 7 - 2 0 0 8 No t Sy s t e m Co n t i n u e t o i n v e s t i g a t e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f i n t e g r a t i n g a t l e a s t 2 , 0 0 0 An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e MW o f wi n d t o P a c i f i C o r p ' s s y s t e m 23 Pa c i f C o r p - 2 0 0 7 I R P U p d a t e .. Si z e .. . . . (r o u n d e d t o th e n e a r e s t Ca l e n d a r - 50 M W f o r Ac t i o l l Ye a r ge n e r a t i o n It e m Ca t e e o r y Ac t i o n T v n e Ti m i n e re s o u r c e s ) · Lo c a t i o n Ac t i o n Mo d e l i n g an d No t Up d a t e m o d e l i n g t o o l s a n d a s s u m p t i o n s t o r e f l e c t p o l i c y c h a n g e s 17 lR P P l a n n i n g 20 0 7 - 2 0 0 8 Sy s t e m in t h e a r e a o f re n e w a b l e p o r t f o l i o s t a n d a r d s a n d c a r b o n d i o x i d e An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e em i s s i o n s Wo r k w i t h s t a t e s t o g a i n a c k n o w l e d g e m e n t o r a c c e p t a n c e o f th e IR P Po l i c y a n d c o s t No t 20 0 ~ i n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e p l a n a n d a c t i o n pl a n . T o t h e e x t e n t s t a t e 18 20 0 7 Sy s t e m po l i c i e s r e s u l t i n d i f f e r e n t a c k n o w l e d g e d p l a n s , w o r k w i t h s t a t e s Ac k n o w l e d g e m e n t re c o v e r y ap p l i c a b l e to a c h i e v e s t a t e p o l i c y g o a l s i n a m a n n e r t h a t r e s u l t s i n f u l l c o s t i re c o v e r y o f n r u d e n t l v i n c u r r e d c o s t s Mo d e l i n g a n d No t In t h e n e x t I R l , e v a l u a t e i n t e r m e d i a t e - t e r m m a r k e t 19 IR P P l a i i n i n g 20 0 8 fu s t c m pu r c h a s e s , m o d e l i n g t h e m l ! i o r t f o l i o o p t i o n s t h a t c o m p e t e An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e wi t h o t h e r r e s o u r c e o p t i o n s , a n d a n a l y z e c o s t a n d r i s k Fo r t h e 2 0 0 8 I R P , d e v e l o p a s c e n a r i o t o me e t t h e C O 2 20 lR P P l a n n i n g Mo d e l i n g a n d 20 0 8 No t Sy s t e m em i s s i o n s r e d u c t i o n g o a l s i n O r e g o n H B 3 5 4 3 , i n c l u d i n g An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e de v e l o p m e n t o f a c o m p l i a n t p o r t f o l i o t h a t m e e t s t h e Co n i i n i s s i o i l s b e s t c o s t / r i s k s t a n d a r d Fo r t h e 2 0 0 8 I R l , f u r t h e r d e v e l o p w i t h s t a k e h o l d e r s , u s e o f 21 IR P P l a n n i n g Mo d e l i n g a n d 20 0 8 No t Sy s t e m lo s s o f l o a d p r o b a b i l t y ( L O L l ' ) a n d e n e r g y n o t s e r v e d ( E N S ) . An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e Fu l l y d e v e l o p c o s t a n d r i s k m d r i c s o f v a r i o u s L O L l ' a n d EN S c r i t e r i a . Fo r t h e 2 0 0 8 I R l , c o n s i d e r t h e i m p a c t o f f o r c e d e a r l y 22 IR P P l a n n i n g Mo d e l i n g a n d 20 0 8 No t Sy s t e m re t i r e m e n t s o f e x i s t i n g c o a l p l a n t s , o r r e t r o f i t s n e c e s s a r y t o An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e re d u c e t h e i r C O 2 e m i s s i o n s , u i r d e r s t r i n g e n t c a r b o n re i m l a t i o n s c e n a r i o s Pu r s u e r e f i n e m e n t o f C O b . . s s i o n s m o d e l i n g t o i m p r o v e 23 II l . P P l a n n i n g Mo d e l i n g a n d 20 0 8 No t §. s t e m tr e a t m e n t o f c o m p l i a n c e u n d e r v a r i o u s r e g u l a t o r y s c l i e m e s , An a l y s i s ap p l i c a b l e in c l u d i n g a s s i g n m e n t o f e m i s s i o n r a t e s t o s h o r t - t e r m m a r k e t tr a n s a c t i o n s . 24 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update ACTION PLAN IMPLEMENTATION Demand-Side Management Since the May 2007 IRP filing, PacifiCorp began incorporating results from the DSM potential study into the DSM program planning process, and, by the fall of 2007, identified opportities to include in the 2008 business plan. The initial impact resulted in the resetting of the 2008 resource targets identified in the 2007 IR by 23% for Class 1 load management resources and 42% for Class 2 energy efficiency resources. To assist in meeting 2009-2017 adjusted lO-year plan forecasts and in anticipation of 2008 IRP refinements, work is underway on the development of a 2008 DSM Request for Proposal (RFP) for new DSM programs. The RFP is expected to be released later this summer (2008). The company's 2007 actual resource acquisitions against the 2007 IRP resource tagets were exceeded by 22% for Class 1 load management resources and 18% for Class 2 energy efficiency resources. The company stil needs to determine how to incorporate the potential assessment of Class 3 DSM, price responsive programs, and Class 4 DSM, energy education into the IRP planning process. Supply-Side Resource Procurement Activities To help address the resource needs identified in the 2007 IR, PacifiCorp issued a 2012 Base Load Request for Proposals (RFP) on April 5, 2007. The Company identified a final short list of bids, and is curently negotiating with short list bidders on final bid prices and terms. For 2008, PacifiCorp has issued, or is planning to issue, thee additional RFPs to meet the resource needs identified in both the 2007 IRP and 2008 business plan. These RFPs are described below. Renewable Request for Proposals (RFP 2008R) The purose of this RFP, issued January 31, 2008, is to support the acquisition of renewable resources identified in the 2007 IRP (See Action Item no. 1 of Table 8.2, page 224). The scope of this RFP is for system wide (Eastern Control Area and Western Control Area) new renewable resources that are capable of delivery in or into PacifiCorp's network transmission system. The RFP specifies a target quantity of up to 200 megawatts for 2008 and up to 100 megawatts for 2009. Individual bids are limited to (1) less than 100 megawatts in generating capability, or (2) for a term ofless than five years if greater than 100 megawatts in generating capability. Renewable categories include wind energy, solar, hydrokinetic (wave, tidal, and ocean thermal energy), biomass/biomass byproducts, geothermal, certified low-impact hydroelectrc energy, and waste gas/waste heat captue or recovery. Bidders also have the option of submitting renewable resources with energy storage, such as pumped hydro, compressed air, or battery technologies. Renewable Request for Proposal (RFP 2008R-l) This renewables RFP, curently being drafted, is intended as a "shelf' RFP under which subsequent periodic RFPs wil be issued to comply with current regulatory rules, orders, aÌd any applicable resource procurement state laws. The 2008R-l RFP is for renewable resources that can reach commercial operation durng the 2008 through 201 i time period, and are limited in size to no more than 300 megawatts. Request For Proposal - 2008 All Source RFP The "All Source RFP" was initiated on February 1, 2008 with a required pre-draft conference and focus on procuring resources to fill need from 2012 though 2016 as stated in the 2007 IRP. The RFP 25 PacifCorp - 2007 IRP Update is seeking capacity and energy resources to serve PacifiCorp's entire system. Bidders may propose any of seven different proposal strctues covering power purchase agreements, tollng agreements, asset purchase and sales agreements, and purchases of existing facilities (load curilment, Qualifying Facility, and geothermal and biomass projects are also covered.) The bid categories are also separated into Base Load, Intermediate Load and Summer Peak resources. 26