Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout20031128Irrigation Load Control Credit Rider Program Impact Evaluation Report for 2003.pdfHECEIVED (1) 'q I ;; :. i eo inn3 tin" 28 AM 9: I.; Q 825 N.E. Mu/tnomah Portland, Oregon 97232 (503) 813-5000 fAC-- E: -03 -03 PACIFICORP 0 ' '., "., , ,"' ' ' U',L ! l., UT\L\':r\ES COMMiSSION PACIFIC POWER UTAH POWER November 28, 2003 Idaho Public Utilities Commission 472 West Washington Boise, ill 83702-5983 Attention:Jean D. Jewell Commission Secretary Re:Idaho 2003 Irrigation Load Control Credit Rider Program Impact Evaluation Report Pacificorp (d.a. Utah Power & Light Company) hereby submits an original and eight copies of the Idaho 2003 Irrigation Load Control Credit Rider Program Impact Evaluation Report. The purpose of this filing is to comply with Commission Order No. 29209 where in the Company was directed to submit a report at the end of the 2003 irrigation season summarizing the results of Irrigation Load Control Credit Rider program (Program). The required Program evaluation is provided herein as Attachment A. Also in compliance with Commission Order No. 29209 the Company recommends the following changes to improve the program. The intent ofthese recommendations is twofold: (1) streamline the enrollment process and (2) mitigate potential customer concerns that may have limited customer participation in the 2003 Program. The Company proposes to: 1. Provide customers with a Load Control Service Agreement by January 15th of each year together with the Load Control Service Credit notification (the credit the customer would receive should they elect to participate). The Load Control Service Agreement will include the amount of credit the customer would receive during the upcoming irrigation season if participation is elected. 2. Require that customers sign and return the Load Control Service Agreement by Februaryth of each year to indicate their intention to participate in the Program. 3. Notify participating customers of the scheduled hours for load control during the irrigation season by March 15th of each calendar year. 4. Permit participating customers to notify the Company of their intent to opt out of the Program without penalty by April 15th. Under the Company proposal customers Pcoud Spon,o, of the 2002/2004 US Olymp;c Team November 28, 2003 Idaho 2003 Irrigation Load Control Report PacifiCorp Page 2 of 2 notifying the Company of their intent to opt out of the Program after April 15th shall be subject to the terms of Special Condition No., Early Termination (Schedule No. 72). 5. Not enforce the ineligibility for the 2004 irrigation season for customers who submitted an Intent to Participate Notification in the in 2003 Program but subsequently failed to execute a Load Control Service Agreement. This proposal is based on the Company recommendation to eliminate the Intent to Participate Notification as part of the 2004 Program. 6. To limit the potential cost for participating customers under terms of Special Condition No 8, Cost of Load Control Devices, (Schedule No. 72) to such costs only to the extent that they exceed one thousand dollars. The Company will separately file tariff changes reflecting these recommendations together with the Load Control Service Credit for the 2004 irrigation season. It is respectfully requested that all formal correspondence and staff requests regarding this matter be addressed to : By E-mail (preferred):datareq uest~paci fi corp. com By Fax:(503) 813-6060 By regular mail:Data Request Response Center PacifiCorp 825 NE Multnomah St., Suite 800 Portland, OR 97232 Informal questions should be directed to Bob Lively (801) 220-4052. Sincerely, ~~~! 1JtIZ/ Vice President, Regulation Enclosures ATTACHMENT A ID AH 0 2003 IRRI GA TI 0 N LOAD CONTROL CREDIT RIDER PROGRAM IMPACT EVALUATION REPORT NOVEMBER 2003 Final Report Idaho 2003 Irrigation Load Control Credit Rider Program Impact Evaluation Submitted to: PacifiCorp Prepared by: Allen Lee , Ph. Brian Hedman Collin Elliot Quantec, LLC November 2003 Table of Contents Introduction ..... ..................... ......................... ............... ...... 1- Background """""""""""""""""""""""""""...................................... Response to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission Staff Recommendations """"""""""""""""""""""""""'"............................ Overview of Evaluation Approach.................. ....... ................"............... 1- 3 II. Data and Assumptions ..................................................... 11- Energy Data and Benefits Valuation......................................................ll- Costs.............................................................................,.........................ll- III. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis........................................... 111- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis................................................................. Ill- Inputs.................................................................................................... Ill- Results ....................................................................,............................. Ill- . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program Introduction Background Pursuant to the Company s commitment and Commission Order No. 29034 PacifiCorp agreed to work with irrigators to develop an optional load control program beginning with the 2003-irrigation season. In December 2002 and January 2003 the Company met with representatives of the Idaho Irrigation Pumpers Association and the irrigation customer class to explain the Company s proposed program and to solicit comments and suggestions from the impacted customers. Based on feedback from customers, PacifiCorp filed its proposed Irrigation Load Control Credit Rider Program (Program) on January 31 2003. On March 17,2003 , the Idaho Commission approved the PacifiCorp Program for implementation beginning with the 2003 irrigation season. Response to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission Staff Recom mendations In March 2003 the Idaho Public Utilities Commission issued Order No. 29209. The order included IPUC Staff recommendations for PacifiCorp to prepare a report as follows: ... prepare a detailed report on the program and file it with the Commission. The filing should be made no later than December 1 2003 and should contain the number of irrigation customers who 1) were eligible to participate in the program 2) filed a letter of intent to participate 3) entered into a load control service agreement 4) participated in the programfor the full three and one-half months and 5) those not eligible to participate next year. The report should also include the total dollar amount of credits provided under the program identified by month. The filing should further include any proposed changes or recommendations to improve the program. (Order No. 29209, page . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program Commission Findings in Order No. 29209 directed the Company to: ... submit a report at the end of the irrigation season summarizing its results. The report once filed will be noticed for comment and we anticipate that recommendations for program changes will result in an improved program for the 2004 irrigation season. (Order No. 29209, page The following information responds to the aforementioned IPUC Staff recommendations. Table 1.2 provides the data requested regarding customer participation. Table 1.2: Number of Irrigation Customers by Category Were eligible to participate in the program Participated in the program for the full three and one-half months Were not eligible to participate next year 015 accounts / 4,466 individually metered sites 915 207 different customers / 403 individually metered sites 207 customers / 402 sites Filed a letter of intent to participate Entered into a load control service agreement 708 The total dollar amount of credits provided under the program, identified by month, are summarized in Table 1.3. Additionally, Table 1.4 shows the actual avoided demand by month and control period. Table 1.3: 2003 Avoided Demand and Participation Credit (LCSC) June July August September Total participation credit $60 971.03 $93,539.55 $97 749.45 $25 323. $277,583. Note: A voided demand (kW) shown should be divided by two to derive the effective average control-day avoided demand. This is because each inigator was controlled only two of the four possible control days. Actual avoided demand by control day is presented in Table 1.4 quantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program II.Data and Assumptions Energy Data and Benefits Valuation PacifiCorp provided the data used in this evaluation. For this Program Quantec saw no need to collect energy impact data independently for the following reasons: . The design of the Program was straightforward-participating pumps were required to be off for the full period during control days PacifiCorp had good documentation on which pumps were participating and their power rating PacifiCorp did measure loads on specific circuits and substations and the results clearly demonstrated dramatic power drops during the control periods Random inspections conducted at about 8 % of the participating sites found that the equipment was performing flawlessly and that only 3% (1 of 32) of the participants had done anything to override the control system. Figure IT.1 demonstrates the impact of the Program on the irrigation daily load shape. These SCADA data are from the /IDAHO/BGRASY transmission substation (CB #67) and show measured loads recorded during selected days. This substation was selected because it had a substantial number of Program participants (participants represented 29% of this circuit's load). The graph shows the loads averaged for the control days MondaylW ednesday and Tuesdayffhursday and for Friday, a non-control day. Although the load shape and magnitudes vary by day, the impact of the Program is clearly shown as a significant and sharp load drop during the control hours.2 This figure although not conclusive, is consistent with the expected impact of the Program on demand during the control period. The participant had not intentionally tried to violate the system control but had damaged it during an emergency situation. The actual levels of demand displayed for the different days should be considered only illustrative since the data represent only five days out of the entire irrigation season. The levels are likely to be influenced by exogenous and short-term variables such as weather, non-irrigation loads, and agricultural practices. A more accurate display of relative usage magnitudes would require longer-term measurements. . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 11- Table 1.4: 2003 Actual A voided Demand Realized by Control Period Monday / Wednesday Tuesday / Thursday Mean Avoided kW Total Avoided kW 20,533. 19,012. 19,772. 39,545. 23,782. 881.00 831. 663. 861.67 20,643. 752. 505.34 20,976. 297. 19,636. 273. Overview of Evaluation Approach Quantec s impact evaluation estimated the benefits and costs of this Program and used them as inputs to the cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost effectiveness was assessed based on the benefit/cost ratio calculated from alternative perspectives. PacifiCorp provided measured and calculated energy impact data for the analysis. It also provided detailed Program cost data. Quantec used its Demand Impact Cost Effectiveness (DICE) model to calculate the stream of Program benefits and costs during the expected life of the Program and calculated present discounted values. These values were then used to derive the benefit/cost ratios. Quantec has used this model and approach to evaluate numerous utility programs in the past. . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program Figure 11.1: Load Shapes for Control and Non-control Days I Control Period :i::iE 30 ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0m oo ~ ~~ ~ m oo ~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ 0 0 00 0 0 .. .. ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ . . .. ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ Time of Day -Man-Wed Control Average - Tue-Thu Control Average -Non-control To assess the costs and benefits associated with the clear demand response of participating customers, it is necessary to understand how the Program influenced participants ' overall irrigation behavior. To provide this information, PacifiCorp s irrigation expert obtained feedback from participating customers. PacifiCorp found that, in addition to reducing demand during the control periods, Program participants were not making up for the foregone irrigation by increasing irrigation in non-control periods. The behaviors of irrigators that allowed them to reduce total irrigation on participating fields included the following: Irrigators were able to enroll locations that they believed could tolerate the measurable amount of water that will be avoided as a function of the imposed control schedule. This decision is a function of the soil type, the system used to deliver the water (e., circle irrigation, line irrigation etc.), the growing season, and forecasted climatic conditions (rainfall temperature, Cooling Degree Days, relative humidity, etc. Irrigators have the option to manipulate the crop rotation pattern such that drought resistant crops can be synched to pumps and irrigation systems nominated for participation in the Program. Crops such as hay, grain peas, and corn would typically be good candidates for Program inclusion. quantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 11- Irrigators were able to make a business decision taking into account their risk preferences, given their anticipated "strike price" for a particular commodity. Irrigators were able to choose whether to participate given the certainty of the Program curtailment credit and their perception of market conditions and their risk assessment. This finding had a direct implication on the impact analysis. Although the Program was implemented primarily as a way to reduce demand during peak periods, it also resulted in energy savings. Because the aggregate demand reduction (on the order of 20 MW per control day) was relatively small compared to total system demand and incremental additions of this magnitude to a utility s generation resource mix are unlikely, it was impractical to estimate its benefits in terms of avoided demand alone. Instead, PacifiCorp calculated the value of energy savings using the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Decrement approach for valuing Demand Side Management (DSM) programs. Fundamentally, the IRP Model calculates revenue requirements based on a given set of assumptions, including an hourly load forecast. Decrements (subtractions) to the load forecast are made based on the hourly shape of the DSM program modeled. Values are calculated with and without the Program. The difference, or decrement value, represents the most PacifiCorp would pay to avoid the load being modeled. The resulting values for avoided energy ($/MWh) based on the anticipated load shape of this Program are presented in Table II. Table 11.1: Estimated Value of Energy Savings 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 $57. $57. $59. $60. $62. To estimate the energy and demand savings, PacifiCorp used the characteristics of the participating customers' loads. In 2003 , there were 207 participants with a total of 403 independent participating sites. From its participant contracts and three-year average historical data, PacifiCorp knew the average historical demand of each site during each month. The total demand reduction for each control period (Mon/W ed and Tuerrhu) was estimated by customer and aggregated to calculate the tota1load reduction induced by the Program. Table IT.2 presents the calculated demand reductions by period. . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 11- Table 11.2: A voided 2003 Aggregate Demand by Control Period Note: In 2004 and subsequent Program years, the July estimated avoided demand for the MonlWed period is 24,489 kW and for the Tueffhu period it is 21 960 kW. In 2003, the values are slightly lower because several participants did not participate for the full month. The avoided energy economic benefits of the 2003 Program were calculated on a monthly basis using the following formula: Energy Economic Benefits (No. of MonlWed Control Days MonlWed Control Days Avoided Demand No. ofTuelIhu Control Days TuelIhu Control Days Avoided Demand) Value of Energy Savings The values of energy savings are shown in Table IT.1 for each year. For future years, these benefits are calculated using the same formula, but with the value of energy savings for the appropriate year. For purposes of estimating future benefits and costs, we used PacifiCorp evaluation assumption that the Program will continue for the five-year period 2003-2007. This assumption is used for evaluation purposes only. It is expected that the Program will continue indefinitely. PacifiCorp assumed that the same number of customers and sites would participate each year. Although participation was assumed to be constant, PacifiCorp s planning assumptions included the likelihood that some customers would drop out each year, but that others would be recruited to take their place. Given the strong response to the Program this year, Quantec believes that it is very reasonable to assume that participants who drop out can be replaced easily in future years. Future recruitment costs are discussed in the following section. The economic benefits to Program participants include reduced utility bills and the PacifiCorp participation credit. Given that the participants respond to the Program by reducing their total energy consumption, Quantec calculated the utility bill savings by multiplying the marginal electricity rate for the average irrigator times the total energy savings for all participants. The average irrigator consumes 43 000 kWh/month, and the applicable rate for this level of consumption is $0.048/kWh. The participation credit benefit to participants is discussed in the next section as it is treated as a Program cost from the utility s perspective. Utah Power estimated this consumption level based on an assumption of a 100 hp pump motor, with a 75% load factor, operating 18 hours per day for a 30-day month. quantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 11- Since the Program does not affect customers' peak demand on non-control days, we have assumed the Program does not reduce the participants' monthly peak demand. Consequently, no participant economic benefits were attributed to reductions in charges (power rate) based on maximum demand. Costs PacifiCorp provided a breakdown of 2003 Program year costs and forecasts of future-year costs. We used both the 2003 cost data and projections for future years in our analysis. Table IT.3 summarizes the costs provided by PacifiCorp. The values for 2003 are actual costs. All values are reported in current dollars and all costs except field expenses and interruption credits are assumed to escalate at a rate of 3% per year. Table II. 3: Program Costs Administrative support 613 $9,902 $10,199 $10,505 $10,820 Evaluation $2,135 199 $2,265 $2,333 $2,403 Filed Expenses $250,223 $85 000 $90,000 $95,000 $100,000 Participation credits $277,584 $277,584 $277 ,584 $277,584 $277,584 Program management $10,993 $11 323 $11 662 $12 012 $12 373 Reporting $352 $362 $373 $384 $396 Total Program costs $550 900 $386 370 $392 084 $397 819 $403 576 Field expenses reflect potential costs for maintaining field equipment and recruiting new participants to replace any who drop out. Given the experience during the first Program year, Quantum believes that the estimates are conservative and that the actual field expense costs are likely to be less than those assumed by PacifiCorp. The participation credit costs are constant for each year since the number of participants is assumed to be unchanged and, and the level of future credits is unknown. These credits are treated as a cost from the utility perspective. From the perspective of the participants, however, they are benefits. The customers were not charged for costs of participating in this Program. Consequently, all Program costs are associated with expenditures by PacifiCorp. . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 11- III.Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Cost effectiveness was calculated using Quantec s DICE model. Procedurally, the model takes the first year kWh savings and allocates them over all the 760 hours in a year based on load shapes appropriate for each of end use being analyzed. The achieved hourly kWh savings are then multiplied by the appropriate avoided cost based on the time of day and season during which they occur (summer peak, summer off-peak, winter peak, etc.). The value of the savings is calculated for each year of the measure life and then discounted back to the present. As part of this evaluation, Quantec conducted an analysis of the Program costs and benefits from the following perspectives: 1. Program Participants: For participants, Program benefits include bill reductions and the participation credit payments participants received for demand reduction. PacifiCorp: From PacifiCorp s perspective, the benefits are in the form of reduced generation or power purchase costs. The costs include marketing and administration associated with funding the Program, as well as the equipment and installation expenses and participant credits. Ratepayers: All ratepayers (participants and non-participants) may experience an increase in rates to recover lost revenue, if any. This test (referred to as the Ratepayer Impact Measure Test, or RIM) includes all PacifiCorp Program costs plus lost revenues. On the benefits side, this test includes all reduced generation or power purchase costs. Total Resource Cost Test (TRC): This test examines the Program benefits and costs from the perspective of the utility and its customers combined. On the benefit side, it includes reduced generation or power purchase costs. On the cost side, it includes costs incurred by both the utility and by the participants, but participant credits are excluded because they are transfer payments among customers. Table Ill. 1 summarizes the various components of the four tests. . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 111- Table IIL1 Benefits and Costs of Various Tests for This Program Participant None to participants PacifiCorp Value of bill savings from reduced consumption and participants' credit payments for demand reduction Value of avoided energy costs as calculated by PacifiCorp IRP model Value of avoided energy costs as calculated by PacifiCorp IRP model Value of avoided energy costs as calculated by PacifiCorp IRP model RIM TRC Inputs Program administrative, marketing, and equipment costs and participant credits Program administrative marketing, and equipment costs; participant credits; lost revenues Program administrative, marketing, and equipment costs As noted earlier, PacifiCorp provided the inputs Quantec used in the cost- effectiveness analysis. Quantec thoroughly reviewed these inputs and the assumptions behind them. All costs and benefits were provided in nominal terms (i., without eliminating the effect of inflation). kWh Savings. Estimated energy savings in 2003 were 7,917 839 kWh annually. These savings were derived from the monthly demand reduction during each of the control periods (Mon/Wed and Tueffhu), times the number of days in each control period each month, times six hours for each control period each day. In future years, the estimated annual energy savings are 964 999 kWh. This value is higher than the 2003 figure because, as noted before, several participants did not participate during the full month of July 2003. The monthly demand reductions in each control period were shown in Table IT.2; the demand reduction summed over the Program months and control periods was 167 987 kW in 2003. In 2004 and subsequent years, this estimated value will be higher-168 773 kW-for the same reason that the energy savings will be higher, as discussed above. Life. The Program impacts were calculated over the five-year evaluation term of the Program. In addition to an analysis over the Program evaluation term we conducted an analysis for the first year only. Participant Retail Electricity Rate. An energy rate of $0.048 per kWh was used, based on PacifiCorp s current tariff for irrigators and the average energy use of irrigation customers. Quantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 111- Program Costs. The costs to the utility included administrative support evaluation, field expenses (equipment plus labor), participant interruption credits, Program management, and reporting. Avoided Costs. Cost effectiveness was calculated based on PacifiCorp estimate of the value of energy savings, as described in Chapter IT. The effect of line losses is included in the avoided cost and in the calculation of benefits. Discount Rates. To derive present discounted values, all future costs and benefits were discounted using nominal discount rates. The rate used in the TRC was 5.23% and the rate used in all other tests was 7.82%. Results Table Ill.2 summarizes the DICE model cost effectiveness outputs for the first year for the Program. The first-year numbers are based on actual Program data provided by PacifiCorp. The Program is cost effective in the first year (positive net present value and benefit/cost ratios exceeding 1.0) from the Total Resource Cost perspective. From PacifiCorp s perspective (UTC), the first year of the Program is not cost effective because this is when most costs are incurred. For participants (PART), the Program is cost effective in the first year, providing benefits of over $657 000 at no cost to the participants. Table 111. Cost Effectiveness - First- Year Only TRC 273 317 452 029 178,712 UTC 550,900 452 029 (98,871) RIM 931,146 452 029 (479,117) PART 657,830 657 830 N/A Detailed Results Benefits TRC UTC RIM PART Avoided Costs 452 029 452 029 452,029 Bill Reduction 380 246 Incentive Payments 277 584 Total Benefits 452 029 452,029 452,029 657,830 Costs TRC UTC RIM PART Program Administration 23,094 23,094 23,094 Participant Incentives 277,584 277,584 Field Costs 250 223 250,223 250,223 Lost Revenues 380,246 Total Costs 273,317 550,900 931,146 . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 111-3 Table IIT.3 shows how energy and demand savings , costs, and benefits vary by year for the five-year evaluation term (2003 through 2007). For each year after the first, the results are based on an assumption that the number of participants is the same as in the first year.4 Program costs vary by year, as shown previously in Table II.3. Table IIT.3 demonstrates that the Program becomes more cost effective over time. While the (undiscounted) benefits added each year remain constant, Program costs decline after the initial field expenses. 5 TRC RIM Table 111.3: Five-Year Cost-Effectiveness Summary 2003 7 917 839 167 987 2004 7,964,999 168,773 2005 7 964 999 168,773 2006 7 964 999 168 773 2007 7 964 999 168 773 ~Q03;7.j9.tl,8:39 '161;987, 20041 7;964;99.9 ;J68;173) 2005'l;964;Q99 ;J68177.3 ~OQ6' 7,9.6~19,99~t68,173/ 20Q77;964;999 /~()8rz73 , '. ' 2003 7 917 839 167 987 2004 7 964 999 168,773 2005 7 964 999 168 773 2006 7,964,999 168,773 2007 7 964 999 168,773 20037,9.17,839 ,167,987' 20047,964-,999 /1681173) 2005'(;9644999 '168,7.73; 2006 7 964,999 "1()8,773 , 20071,964;999: 168,173 ' $452 $437 $425, $414 $403, :;$452, \$426jp~ ; $405, ;1;$3815;\5:3 ;:; $3f36i53 $452 $426, $405 $385, $366 $657, /$613,721 );$569, ;/$527 f33 $273 316 $103,380 $103,402 $103 184 $102 751 $550;900. $359,849 ' "/$338;665; .;$3J8;f377' $299;824. . $931 147 $714 617 $667,702 $623,850 $582 864 For a five-year evaluation term, Table Ill.4 shows that the Program is cost- effective from both TRC and PacifiCorp s perspectives. To PacifiCorp, the net present value (NPV) of the Program is more than $168 000. From the participants' perspective , the NPV of the Program is more than $2.8 million. The RIM test is the only one under which the five-year Program is not cost The energy savings figures, however, were adjusted upward to account for full participation in July (as discussed earlier). Note that while Table Ill.3 presents some of the same results as Table 111.2, there are some small differences due to rounding. Quantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 111- effective. Energy-efficiency programs often do not pass this test because of the inclusion of lost revenues as a cost. Table 111. Cost Effectiveness - Five-Year Offering TRC 686,032 133 572 447,540 UTC 867,916 036,250 168,334 RIM 520,180 036 250 483,930) PART 858,320 858,320 N/A Detailed Results Benefits TRC UTC RIM PART Avoided Costs 133,572 036 250 036,250 Bill Reduction 652 264 Incentive Payments 206 056 Total Benefits 133 572 036,250 036,250 858 320 Costs TRC UTC RIM PART Program Administration 110,677 105,596 105,596 Participant Incentives 206,056 206 056 Field Costs 575,356 556,264 556,264 Lost Revenues 652 264 Total Costs 686,032 867,916 520,180 . auantec Evaluation of the Idaho Irrigation Load Control Credit Program 111-