HomeMy WebLinkAbout200310302003IRP Update.pdfHECEIVEO
FILED
(7)
825 E. Mu/tnomah
Portland, Oregon 97232
(503) 464-5000
October 29 2003
ZUO3 OCT 30 AtilO: 2 ~
PACIFICORP
RQCIFIC POWER UTAH POWER
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UTILITIES COi~H.\lSSION
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington
Boise, ill 83702
Attn: Jean Jewell
Commission Secretary IAC-j;-tJ 2~tf;2
Re:Update to PacifiCorp s 2003 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
Dear Ms. Jewell:
Enclosed are six copies of PacifiCorp s update to its 2003 Integrated Resource Plan
(IRP). The Company s 2003 IRP was filed with the Commission on January 27 2003.
PacifiCorp recognizes that integrated resource planning is a continuous process rather
than a one-time or occasional event. In its IRP filing, the Company stated that its IRP
Action Plan "will be implemented as described.. .but is subject to change as new
information becomes available or as circumstances change" (Page 152 of the filed IRP).
The IRP further noted "PacifiCorp s intention to revisit and refresh the Action Plan no
less frequently than annually" (Page 152 of the filed IRP). This IRP update is consistent
with that intention.
This update is being submitted for informational purposes. No further action of the
Commission is requested at this time.
Sincerely,
;J;!d
--
I~~C;::~
Project Manager, Resource Planning
Enclosure
PacifiCorp IRP Update
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PacifiCorp s 2003 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) was filed on January 24, 2003. The
IRP process supports PacifiCorp s objective of providing reliable and least cost electric
service to all of its customers while minimizing the substantial risks inherent in the
electric utility business. The January IRP report described prudent future actions to fulfill
this objective, based on the best information known at the time. The IRP was developed
with considerable public involvement from customer interest groups, regulatory staff
regulators and other stakeholders. The IRP was submitted to all 6 States that regulate
PacifiCorp s retail electric operations and was acknowledged in all States with IRP
Standards and Guidelines requiring an acknowledgement process.
PacifiCorp recognizes that integrated resource planning is a continuous process rather
than a one-time or occasional event. The plan stated (pg. 152) that the IRP Action Plan
will be implemented as described...but is subject to change as new information becomes
available or as circumstances change." Also, the plan stated (pg. 152) that it is
PacifiCorp s intention to revisit and refresh the Action Plan no less frequently than
annually." This IRP Update satisfies that commitment.
Since the last IRP was completed, PacifiCorp has continued its long-term planning work
and improvements to models, assumptions and processes. Changes to inputs and
assumptions include a revised load forecasting methodology resulting in an updated 20
year forecast, changes to coal plant development timelines, and an improved
representation of transmission issues in our modeling, and market prices.
PacifiCorp has also conducted further detailed model validation against actual system
operations data and has improved the synchronization of short-term operations and
planning with long-term IRP planning efforts.
This work has resulted in a revised load-resource balance for PacifiCorp and an enhanced
way of representing this balance by location. The improved analysis allows us to
understand better the degree to which transmission constraints in some areas result in a
risk of insufficient resource capacity to meet the peak obligations. This need is in
addition to that of unconstrained transmission areas with a short position, where
PacifiCorp needs transfer balance.
In light of this new information, PacifiCorp is able to conclude that resource requirements
in the Eastern control area are accelerated and in the Western control area are somewhat
delayed, as compared with resources in the January IRP's Diversified Portfolio 1 , the
least cost, least risk, portfolio. PacifiCorp s ongoing request for proposal (RFP) process
is expected to provide additional information regarding resource availability, costs and
timelines to help fill the accelerated Eastern control area short position.
PacifiCorp IRP Update
This IRP Update concludes with a status report on each of the Action Plan items
identified in the January 2003 IRP. In addition, changes to the Action Plan that are
warranted by the new information contained in this IRP Update are highlighted.
PacifiCorp has hosted three Quarterly Public Input Meetings and two Load-Forecasting
Technical Workshops to inform IRP public input participants of changes to inputs and
assumptions, and provide an update and status on the IRP Action Plan. This filing and
the meetings with public input participants, provides PacifiCorp and interested parties
with a new foundation for the 2004 IRP process, which begins December, 2003.
PacifiCorp IRP Update
INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
Since the IRP was filed in January, there have been updates to various inputs and
assumptions. A comprehensive summary of updates can be found in the Appendix. Four
of these updates were the main drivers to changes in the net position and the least-cost
low risk portfolio, Diversified Portfolio 1. The four updates include the Load Forecast
Hunter 4 Timing, topology, and market prices.
LOAD FORECAST
The long-term load forecast that is used in the IRP is updated every two years and
represents a 20-year, hourly forecast of energy and demand use by customer class for
each load center on PacifiCorp s system. The load forecast used in the filed IRP was
prepared and released in 2001.
In May 2003 , a new long-term load forecast was produced. The new forecast was based
on the latest survey information , updated census data, and updated economic forecasts.
In addition, there have also been changes to the way PacifiCorp develops a system peak
forecast and hourly load forecasts. This new methodology is detailed below.
Forecasting Methodology
System Peak Forecast
The system peaks are the maximum loads required on the system in any IS-minute
period. Originally, forecasts of the system peak for each month were prepared based on
the load forecast produced using the methodologies described in Appendix K of the 2003
IRP. The peaks were then forecasted for two different times: the maximum usage on the
entire system during each month (the coincidental system peak), and the maximum usage
within each state during each month.
Currently, forecasts of the system peak are prepared based on forecasting individual state
peaks and then aggregating these up to the system. Individual State peaks are calculated
from the historic growths for summer and winter seasons separated for high load hours
and super peak hours, over a 10-year period. The peaks are then extrapolated forward for
each State, based on each State s historic growth pattern. In addition to historic peak
growth rates, PacifiCorp also incorporated the current and forecasted saturation and
penetration rates for each State (based on Commercial & Residential surveys conducted
by PacifiCorp) to ensure proper growth rate changes out into the future.
The original method of calculating system peaks has been improved as a result of new
State Hourly Models. The new methodology no longer requires monthly peak forecasts
since the hourly model distributes load throughout the year to each hour providing annual
shapes and monthly peaks based on historic information.
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
Hourly Load Forecasts
Originally, annual energy levels were spread to monthly values using historical
consumption patterns. These were further distributed to daily and hourly shapes on
historical consumption patterns.
Currently, the annual energy levels forecasts for each PacifiCorp jurisdiction are
determined through the long-term forecast process, and are distributed using an hourly-
shaping model, which distributes annual loads into each hour of each year. This is
similar to the old method except that the model distributes an annual load, therefore not
needing monthly values.
The hourly-shaping model is developed based on 3 years of historic consumption patterns
and includes a number of spatial parameters for hours of day, days of week, weeks of
year, as well as the months and seasons. In addition to these spatial parameters, there are
also a number of temperature variables to capture load impacts resulting from
temperature deviations from normal. The results of the shaping model also calibrates the
peak and trough growth rate differentials based on history, which is calculated for each
jurisdiction (as described in the System Peak Forecast Section). The use of the hourly-
shaping model ensures that the monthly values align with historical load duration curves.
Overview of 2003 Long-Term Load Forecast
The 20-year long-term growth rate of the updated forecast is 2., while the forecast
used in the 2003 IRP had a long-term growth rate of 2.3%. Table 2.1 summarizes the
differences of the long-term growth rates by state between the two forecasts. In the tables
that follow, the forecast used in the 2003 IRP has been labeled as the 2001 Forecast
because it was prepared and released in 2001 and the forecast developed in May 2003 is
labeled as the 2003 Forecast.
T bl 2 1 P th R t S Iercen . per ear row a es or a es
State 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Oreaon 0.4%
Washin!!ton
California 1.4%
Utah
Idaho 1.1 %
WvomiO!!
Totals
There has been a shift in the forecast such that more growth is expected on the East side
of the service area (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho) and less growth is expected on the West side
of the service area (Oregon, California, and Washington).
The forecast for system peak demand has changed from 2.1 % per year to 3.4% per year
for the time period from 2003 through 2014. Table 2.2 summarizes the difference in the
peak demand growth rates by state for the non-coincident peak demands.
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
T bl 2 2 P P kDercent oer ear rowt ates or on-OIDCI ent eman
State 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Ore!!on 1.4%1.8%0.4%
Washin!!ton 1.8%1.2%
California
Utah 2.4%
Idaho
Wvomina 1.7%1.0%
Totals 1.3%
State Summaries
Oregon
Table 2.3 summarizes Oregon s sales growth comparison by customer class for the 2003
Forecast and the 2001 Forecast.
T bl 2 3 F fCI . 0orecastompanson 0 ass ales lD re2on
Class 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Residential 1.1%1.8%
Commercial
Industrial 1.5%
Irrigation
Other 1.0%
The residential customer forecast in the 2003 Forecast projects a slower growth than for
the 2001 Forecast primarily due to a lower expected population growth in the service
area. Usage per customer in the residential class is less in the 2003 Forecast than in the
2001 Forecast. Usage per customer is declining in the 2003 Forecast due to expected
appliance efficiency gains. Usage per customer was relatively constant for the 2001
Forecast. In summary, the residential class usage in the 2003 Forecast has a lower
overall growth rate than the previous forecast.
Commercial customers are projected to grow slightly faster in the 2003 Forecast than in
the 2001 Forecast due to an assumed faster growth in tourism-based industries. Usage
per customer is projected to decline for the 2003 Forecast due to increased equipment
efficiency. Usage per customer was relatively constant for the 2001 Forecast. The total
effect on the commercial class is for the growth rate for each forecast to remain the same.
The industrial class is projected to grow slower in the 2003 Forecast than for the 2001
Forecast. The relative price of electricity is projected to increase at 0.4% per year in the
2003 Forecast. In the 2001 Forecast the relative price of electricity was projected to
decline by 3.0% per year. This reversal of growth rates causes more fuel switching in the
2003 Forecast than assumed in the 2001 Forecast.
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
The difference in peak demand growth rates between the two forecasts follows the
difference in the projected sales growth rates. The factors influencing the difference
between the two forecasts' sales growth rates are also influencing the difference between
the forecasted peak demand growth rates.
Washington
Table 2.4 summarizes Washington s sales growth comparison by customer class for the
2003 Forecast and the 2001 Forecast.
T bl 2 4 F fCI S Iorecasompanson 0 ass a es III as lD21
Class 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Residential 1.3%-0.
Commercial 1.5%-0.
Industrial
Irrigation
Other 1.4%0.4%
The slower rate of growth in the residential class is due to an assumed slower population
growth in this part of PacifiCorp s service area. There is not a measurable difference in
the usage per customer growth rates in the two forecasts. For both forecasts, the usage
per customer is assumed to remain relatively flat.
The assumed slower population growth also affects the commercial sector. In addition
the 2003 Forecast has usage per customer declining over the forecast horizon due to
equipment efficiency gains. The 2001 Forecast has usage per customer remaining
relatively flat over the forecast horizon.
The industrial class is projected to grow at a faster rate in the 2003 Forecast than in the
2001 Forecast. Industrial production is projected to grow faster in the food, lumber, and
paper industries in the state.
The differences in peak demand growth rates are due to several reasons. First, a higher
conversion rate from evaporative coolers to central air conditioners is assumed. Second
more people per household are assumed in the 2003 Forecast than in the 2001 Forecast.
Third, more air conditioning load was assumed in the 2003 Forecast.
California
Table 2.5 summarizes California s sales growth comparison by customer class for the
2003 Forecast and the 2001 Forecast.
T bl 2 5 F fCI S I . C I"forecasompanson 0 ass a es lD a I orma
Class 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Irrigation 1.1%
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
I Other 10.10.
The slower rate of growth in the residential class is due to an assumed slower population
growth in this part of PacifiCorp s service area. The 2003 Forecast has usage per
customer declining over the forecast horizon due to appliance efficiency gains. The 2001
Forecast has usage per customer remaining relatively flat over the forecast horizon.
Customer growth for the commercial sector is the same in both forecasts. Usage per
customer in the commercial sector is projected to increase in the 2003 Forecast primarily
due to buildings constructed during the 1990s being larger than those built in the prior
decade. This trend in larger buildings is expected to continue. Usage per customer was
assumed to be relatively constant in the 2001 Forecast.
The peak demand in California is expected to grow slightly faster in the 2003 Forecast.
The primary reason for this additional growth is the assumption that larger commercial
buildings were built during the 1990s and the expectation that this trend is expected to
continue.
Utah
Table 2.6 summarizes Utah's sales growth comparison by customer class for the 2003
Forecast and the 2001 Forecast.
T bl 2 6 F fCI S I . Utahorecasompanson 0 ass a es lD
Class 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Residential 1.1%
Commercial 3.4%0.4%
Industrial 0.1 %
Irrigation
Other 1.8%
The growth rate for residential customers is assumed to be the same for both forecasts.
Usage per customer in the 2003 Forecast is increasing and was relatively flat in the 2001
Forecast. Two contributing factors to the increased usage are that newer homes are
assumed to be larger, and that newer homes have more people per household. It is
assumed that air conditioning saturation rates for single family and manufactured houses
will be growing faster than assumed in the 2001 Forecast. Also , in the residential sector
it is assumed that there is a switching of evaporative coolers for central air conditioning
units.
The growth rate for commercial customers is assumed to be slightly less than the
assumed growth rate in the 2001 Forecast. Usage per customer is projected to be
increasing in the 2003 Forecast compared to slightly declining in the 2001 Forecast.
Contributing to this increase is the assumption that newly constructed commercial
structures have been larger. This trend is expected to continue in the 2003 Forecast.
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
The peak demand for the state of Utah is projected to have a higher growth rate in the
2003 Forecast than in the 2001 Forecast. The same factors which contribute to the
increase in energy cause the summer peak demand to increase. However, most of the
increase in energy occurs during the summer months due to the increase in residential air
conditioning saturation and the switching from evaporative coolers to central units.
These two factors when interacted with the larger structures and more people per
household in the residential sector cause a faster increase in the summer hours than in the
non-summer hours. These summer hours include the peak demand hour. The summer
hours also tend to grow faster due to the larger structures in the commercial sector. The
air conditioning saturation rate is larger than the electric heating saturation rate. So, the
larger structures would have more of an impact on the summer hours than the non-
summer hours.
Idaho
Table 2.7 summarizes Idaho s sales growth comparison by customer class for the 2003
Forecast and the 2001 Forecast.
T bi 2 7 F fCI S I . Id horecastomoanson 0 ass a es lD a 0
Class 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Residential 1.7%2.3%
Commercial 0.4%
Industrial 0.4%
Irrigation 1.6%2.4%
Other
The forecast of residential sales is lower in the 2003 Forecast due to a projected lower
growth rate of residential customers. This lower growth rate of residential customers is
due to a lower expected population growth in the region.
The forecast of commercial sales is slightly higher in the 2003 Forecast than in the 2001
Forecast. The primary reason for this higher growth is that air conditioning usage is
assumed to be higher in the 2003 Forecast than in the 2001 Forecast.
The peak demand is assumed to grow slower in the 2003 Forecast than in the 2001
Forecast. The major reason for this slower growth is the lower rate of residential
customer growth assumed in the 2003 Forecast.
Wyoming
Table 2.8 summarizes Wyoming s sales growth comparison by customer class for the
2003 Forecast and the 2001 Forecast.
T b 28 fCIForecastomparison 0 ass ales lD W vomiD!!
Class 2003 Forecast 2001 Forecast Difference
Residential 0.4%
Commercial 1.2%
Industrial
- 8 -
PacifiCorp IRP Update
Irrigation 0.4%
Other
The major difference in the Wyoming sales forecast is the industrial sales sector.
Industrial growth in Eastern Wyoming is expected to be similar to the long-term
historical trend growth. This difference also translates in the peak demand growth rate
being higher in the 2003 Forecast than in the 2001 Forecast.
HUNTER 4 TIMELINE
In the original submittal of IRP Resources (Table C18 Potential Supply Side Resources
page 209), Hunter Unit 4 was listed as having a lead-time of 48 months. This lead-time
assumed a permit period of 9 months and a project completion period of 39 months. This
schedule also assumed that internal approval was obtained before submittal of the permit
application, and that a Certificate of Purpose and Necessity was obtained after internal
approvals but before the submittal of the air permit application.
The IRP was clear in explaining the decision to proceed with a new coal plant would be
different from the original 48-month assumptions. The filed IRP, on page 159 , in Figure
3 introduces the concept of first obtaining the air permit for the coal plant, which may
require a re-assessment of the cost. The cost reassessment must take into consideration
any economic issues raised in obtaining an air permit including advances or changes in
technology and the resulting risk assessment of those changes.
Other updates to the timeline include the NOI preparation time of three months, and the
additional six months of air permitting time as indicated to PacifiCorp by UDAQ when
the NOI was submitted. Finally, obtaining the Certificate of Purpose and Necessity after
receiving the results of the air permit resulted in an additional 4 months to the timeline.
These factors all add up to an overall addition of 13 months to the original 48-month
timeline, for a total of 61 months.
The new 61-month schedule is shown in table 2.9 below. The studies and NOI
preparation for Hunter 4 are already complete, and the NOI was filed with the Utah
Department of Air Quality in May 2003. The timeline indicates that the original timeline
for Hunter 4 (FY2008) is not a realistic goal for completion of a fourth unit at Hunter.
Table 2.9 Hunter 4 Timeline (months)
Studies Air Certificate of Project Commissioning Total
Option NOI Convenience Lead
Preoaration Permitting & Necessitv Execution & Testing Time
Hunter 4
TOPOLOGY UPDATES
Since the publication of the 2003 IRP, PacifiCorp has modified its model topology. The
following refinements provide improvements in model operation time and better
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
represent transmission constraints and the access to markets available on the system.
Each is discussed below.
First, the links between the Idaho, Kinport and Goshen bubbles were revised. Originally
discussed at the July 21 , 2003 IRP Quarterly Public Input Meeting, this revision better
represents PacifiCorp s movement of electricity across Path C and corresponding unit
dispatch.
Second, a number of transmission areas (bubbles) have been consolidated. The old
topology was developed early in the IRP process. A highly refined topology was desired
to capture the possible, but then unknown, resource locations. Since that time,
PacifiCorp has obtained a better understanding of resource availability. Furthermore, anumber of bubbles were found to provide no substantive information relevant to the
modeling effort. Reducing the number of bubbles, speeds model simulation times.
Finally, a link has been added between Palo Verde and Four Corners. PacifiCorp serves
its obligations at Four Corners through a combination of energy delivered from the
Eastern Control Area and market purchases and physical swaps from other liquid points
like Palo Verde. The addition of this link improves the representation of how the Four
Corners' obligations have historically been served.
Figure 2.1 Updated IRP Topology
PacifiCorp IRP
Topology Loadiii GenerationCD Purchase/Sale Man.ets
Contracts/Exchanges
......... Owned Transmission Capacity
......... LT Firm Transmission Capacity
Basis Swap
......... Non-firm Transmission Capacity
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
MARKET UPDATES
Since the publication of the 2003 IRP, PacifiCorp updated its forecast of market prices
for electricity and natural gas. The revised forecasts are summarized in the Appendix.
The electricity market prices were prepared in a similar manner to those used for the
January 2003 IRP. In the short run, the forecasts reflect recent forward prices evident in
the marketplace. In the long run, the forecasts reflect updated information on recent and
anticipated resource additions and transmission changes throughout the WECc.
addition, they incorporate a more recent forecast of natural gas prices, a primary driver of
wholesale electricity prices.
The forecast of Western natural gas prices is higher than the base forecast of the January
2003 IRP. This outlook reflects recent market experience of high and volatile prices,
underscoring the continuing challenge of maintaining North American natural gas
production in the face of steeper declining rates in mature producing areas. In summary,
the new base forecast for natural gas in the Northwest and Utah is about $0.40 per million
British thermal units (MMBtu) higher over the 2005-2012 period. This is almost 10%
higher than the January base forecast of about $4/MMBtu.
These gas price changes could alter the least-cost resource choices originally found in
Diversified Portfolio 1. An example of the effect of higher natural gas prices on resource
decisions is evident when evaluating the efficiency of a Combined-Cycle Combustion
Turbine (CCCT) compared to a Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine (SCCT). The 2003
IRP originally assumed a preference for SCCTs (vs. CCCTs) when unit capacity factors
were less than 30%. At current gas prices, CCCTs operate more economically at even
lower capacity factors. This is one of the reasons that the 'Addition Type' column in the
Action Plan (see Chapter 4) has been updated with more generic wording for action items
15 and 16.
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
Net Position
PacifiCorp s net position drives resource decisions. The size and timing of new resource
decisions hinge upon PacifiCorp s obligations delineated by the net position.
Since the IRP was filed in January, PacifiCorp has spent a considerable amount of time
validating the model against actual system operations data, and synchronizing near term
operations with long-term IRP planning efforts. This work resulted in both an updated
net position and an enhanced way of representing the position.
EV ALVA TION OF SHORT POSITION
Analysis of the new position revealed a need to segment the short position by location.The reason for this change is that the new load forecast and an evaluation of the
transmission system highlighted an issue related to delivering resources in a
transmission-constrained area. Therefore, it was important to have the ability to review
these areas of the system and analyze them in more granularity.
This approach differs from the filed IRP. The 2003 IRP first took an energy view of each
control area, and then analyzed the capacity position for the total system with a 15%
planning margin target. The new approach breaks the system into more detail and looks
at the position as two Tier , based on constraints. The tiered approach is consistent with
the manner in which PacifiCorp s Front Office plans for the system in the near term (2-
years out).
Tier 1 Position
Tier 1 is defined as the risk of insufficient resource capacity within a transmission-
constrained area to meet the maximum firm capacity obligation. For a Tier 1 position
PacifiCorp will plan to cover the peak hour physical position with average annual
unplanned outages for the area.
Tier 1 of PacifiCorp s position resides in the Utah 'Bubble . The Utah 'Bubble' isdefined by loads, resources, and contracts in Southeast Idaho, Utah and Southwest
Wyoming (west of Naughton). The Utah 'Bubble' fits the Tier 1 definition since
transmission constraints in this area limit firm import capability.
The transmission constraint was first identified in the 2003 IRP process and was called
the "Mona Triangle constraint. Item #27 of the Action Plan (pg. 157) specified
preparing detailed plans to implement the "Wasatch Front Triangle transmission
upgrades. The new load forecast increased the importance of reviewing the "Mona or
Wasatch Front Triangle . The review highlighted that PacifiCorp has limited import
capability from the south, and that load growth may cause the need to expand
transmission import capability.
After reviewing the Mona triangle, PacifiCorp defined the Wasatch Front South (WFS)
import boundary. This boundary refers to the transfer capability of six transmission lines
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
allowing imports of power from south to north into the Wasatch Front. The figure below
illustrates the WFS boundary.
Figure 3.1 Wasatch Front South Boundary
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Sixty percent of PacifiCorp s resources are located south of the WFS boundary, and
ninety-five percent of PacifiCorp s load resides north of the boundary. All power
flowing from the south must flow across this constrained area.
Retaining flexibility from the south is important. In addition to the majority of
PacifiCorp s resources falling south of the constraint, the liquid markets such as Palo
Verde, SP1S and Four Corners are also to the south. Flexibility is necessary when events
such as unforeseen load excursions , or generation and transmission outages occur.
Furthermore, access to liquid markets improves net power costs by enhancing the ability
to make purchases or sales when economic.
... 13 -
PacifiCorp IRP Update
Figure 3.2 PacifiCorp West Net Position Duration Curve (FY200S)
West Duration Curve (FY2005)
500
000
500
:;;
(500)
(1.000)--- -- m -- -- ... -- ... --
------ -- --- - --
......... m --
--- -- ------ ... --- ... ... ---
(1.500)m -- -- - -
---
- ~ ~ ~ N ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ N ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ 000 ~ ~ - ~ 0 ~ 00 M ~ - ~ 0 ~ 00 M ~
- ~
- - ~ ~ M M M ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00
Hours
Figure 3.2 presents the West system in essentially three states:
Surplus: During -48% of the year, the system is surplus. Over these hours the West
has more than sufficient native resources to serve the obligations within the control
area. Alternatively stated, surplus capacity, net of the reserves obligation, is held idle
during this period.
Flat: Within the next section , representing -30% of the year, the West control area
is flat. Here the West has served all of its native obligations and then transferred
surpluses to the East. The size and duration of these transfers varies.
Short: The Western system is short for the balance of the year. This short position
exceeds 90 MW for 10% of the year. Excursions, observed on the far right of the
Figure are largely contingency driven.
The FY200S position leads to three conclusions. First, the West is essentially resource
sufficient for the early years of the planning period. This is particularly true in light of
the West's access to market (not represented here). Sufficient import capability exists to
serve the small duration of deficit position as well as deal with contingencies should they
arise. Second , the West has sufficient capacity to support both its indigenous peak
requirements as well as the peak requirements of the East at the limits allowed
transmission. Finally, the West had sufficient resources to maximize transfers to the East
at or near the limits of PacifiCorp s firm rights. However, the high level of transfers is
limited to select hours.
Figure 3.3 illustrates the West position in FY 2010. Like FY 2005, the diagram can be
broken into three sections.
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
Long: The West is long -20% of the year. Compared to 2005, this period of length
has declined.
Flat: Transfers flatten the West's position for -20% of the year. This period has
similarly narrowed since 2005.
Short: The West is short, to some extent, nearly 50% of the year. At the tail, the
short position exceeds 425 MW for -20% of the time.
The combination of fundamental load growth and contract expirations creates this
growing deficit. Given the late date of this position, it is likely that no action to resolve it
will be necessary until the next planning cycle.
Figure 3.3 PacifiCorp West Net Position Duration Curve (FY2010)
West Duration Curve (FY2010)
. -. _. -.
-. m .- - -. m .. ..
... ... .- -. .- ... -. ... ... ... ...
.. ... m ... ... .- -. -. ... ... .- ...
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As with 2005, transfers between the East and the West provide important information.
Over the summer peak hours in 2010, transfers remain high. However, the total energy
transferred during the year declines substantially. In addition to the capacity
requirements noted earlier, additions of energy to the West would likely be beneficial.
Additions of energy could broaden the period of such transfers. Additional energy would
also help native balancing requirements otherwise served from market. Such a
requirement may be a good candidate for low-cost, intermittent resources such as wind.
Tier 2 - Four Corners Position
Four Corners holds the final short position of note. PacifiCorp maintains significant
long-term contractual obligations at Four Corners. While PacifiCorp does not serve
native load in that area, the size and duration of the position merits addressing it as a Tier
2 concern.
The position is principally driven by a seasonal exchange contract. The contract creates
an obligation (short) in the summer and a resource (length) in the winter. Size and time
of the position can be substantial. Over peak summer hours the obligation can exceed
400 MW. Historically, PacifiCorp served this obligation with a combination of power
from the East control area, purchases at Four Corners, and physical swaps from more
- 16 -
PacifiCorp IRP Update
liquid points (like Palo Verde). Solutions to the Four Corners short position also emerge
from the on-going RFP process.
REVISIONS TO DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
The 2003 IRP prescribed a slate of resources to resolve PacifiCorp s short position.
Table 3.2 below, summarizes these resources. As the name implies, the portfolio was
diversified. It featured a blend of new thermal, renewable and DSM resources. Thermal
generation included simple cycle combustion turbines, combined cycle plants , and
pulverized coal. The portfolio was also geographically diverse with large allocations of
new generation installed in both control areas.
Table 3.2 Diversified Portfolio I
DivefSified Portfolio I
Pon/olio Surnnlo/y (MW)
East The""a! contract (installed capacity in MW)
Class 1 DSM (load control - peak MW capability)
Class 2 DSM (MWa added each year)
Wind (East - installed capacity in MW)
Super Peak Contract
Coal Base Load (Hunter 4)
CCCT (Mona)
CCCT (Gadsby Repower)
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Reserve Peakers (East)
West The""al contract (installed capacity in MW)
Class 2 DSM (MWa added each year)
Wind (West - installed capacity in MW)
Flat Contract (7)(24)
Year Flat Off-Peak
CCCT (Albany)
Reserve Peakers (West)
Peaking Contract
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 T%/MW.
25.25.25.25.25.25.25.175.
30.30.31.91.
30.12.11.00 12.12.12.12.12.12.123.
200.200.200.120.720.225.(225.00)
575.575.
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25.25.25.25.25.25.25.175.
22.100.200.200.200.700.
200.200.
500.(500.00)
570.570.
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100.100.
Diversified Portfolio 1 is no longer well aligned with PacifiCorp s updated position. Four
main reasons drive a need to revise the plan. First, demand growth has changed. Second
new information regarding the resource lead times has emerged. Third, the approach to
planning margin has evolved. Finally, the RFP process is expected to provide additional
information regarding resource availability, costs and timelines. Each is discussed below.
Diversified Portfolio 1 generally balanced new resources between the East and West
control areas. With the new load forecast, the demand-related needs in the West
diminished and those in the East rose. Accordingly, the next planning cycle is expected
to find greater resource needs in the East control area (particularly Utah) and less
resource needs in the West. However, while the West's demand growth is smaller than
expected by the 2003 IRP, resource losses due to contract expirations remain the same.
Therefore, latter years will likely retain some form of resource requirement in the West.
In addition to redistributing resources , updated plans must account for revised lead-times.
Discussed previously, the 2003 IRP timelines for the installation of Hunter-4 and
transmission upgrades north of Mona cannot be completed as originally expected due to
the revised permitting and construction schedules. Both resources were key elements of
the original Action Plan. With revised availability schedules, DPI must also be revised.
- 17 -
PacifiCorp IRP Update
The 2003 IRP proposed building the system to a 15% planning margin. Diversified
Portfolio 1 was developed accordingly. Discussed earlier, the position is now evaluated
using a two-tier approach. For purposes of assessing PacifiCorp s requirement, the
evaluation accounts for reserves and forced outages. This approach better links planning
targets with system operations. However, the approach makes no explicit
assumptions/additions for planning margin. If appropriate, decisions regarding planning
margin and other resource sufficiency issues will be addressed in the next planning cycle.
Finally, the 2003 IRP presented a plan featuring proven technologies at known sites. The
approach facilitated the development of reasonable cost data for evaluation. The RFP
process, now underway, is expected to provide PacifiCorp with new resources as well as
a host of cost and availability information. DPI will need to be revised in light of this
new information.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND ALTERNATIVES
As PacifiCorp enters the new planning cycle, efforts to satisfy the Tier-l and Tier-
requirements will be important. Some efforts are already underway. Others will begin in
the next year. Additional actions may be warranted by the findings of the next IRP. The
following information reviews some of the actions available to PacifiCorp. These
outcomes will inform and serve as the basis for the development of the Integrated
Resource Plan scheduled for publication in December 2004.
The RFP 20m-, issued in June 2003 , sought to procure a slate of resources specified by
Diversified Portfolio 1. The process continues. During the solicitation of proposals
PacifiCorp notified participants that additional , Utah delivered resources will be
considered in light of the updated load forecasts and as such the economic size of
resources should not be constrained in the RFP process. Increasing the acquisition scope
of RFP 2003-A seeks to resolve the large Tier-l position arising from the new load
forecast.
The 2003 IRP Action Plan prescribed the issuance of a renewable RFP (RFP 2003-B).
Given the requirements observed within both control areas, RFP-2003-B will be issued as
planned. Stated throughout the IRP process, a procurement strategy, more aggressive
than specified by DP1 , may be pursued if economic.
Particularly in light of the large Tier-l position, DSM remains an important alternative in
the search for new resources. A DSM RFP was issued in June 2003. Both the contracted
solutions and information learned from the RFP will be valuable contributors to resolving
PacifiCorp s load and resource gap.
The customer will be an important element of the solutions implemented by PacifiCorp.
Both customer education and rate-design alternatives are being and will continue to be
explored in the future.
- 18 -
PacifiCorp IRP Update
Findings this summer highlighted the importance of transmission solutions. PacifiCorp is
now researching and analyzing transmission investments in the Mona Triangle.
PacifiCorp is also actively exploring economic alternatives within sub-regional
transmission planning efforts.
Qualifying Facilities (QF's) may meet part of PacifiCorp s requirement. Interest from
QF developers has risen over the past several months. The potential for new QF's is
promising. While PacifiCorp does not know the business plans of specific developers
and cannot predict the introduction of new QF's or control their delivery timing, it does
recognize that they could be part of the solution.
Mentioned in this update and in the 2003 IRP, the West control area, in particular, is
subject to expiring supply contracts. Renegotiation of those contracts could provide an
important resource solution to PacifiCorp.
PacifiCorp remains constrained by both resource development timelines and the large
size of new resource alternatives. Near term purchases fill the gaps between resource
introductions. Such purchases were an important, early resource component of DPI.
They will remain an important alternative in the future.
RFP 2004-A is in response to a need identified by the 2003 IRP. While this RFP will not
be issued until next year, it is important. This RFP will seek to procure resources for
CY2008 and beyond.
- 19 -
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
Appendix
The appendix provides an overview of updates to inputs and assumptions in Appendix C
of the filed 2003 IRP. Table headings and numbers are consistent with what was
originally published in Appendix C.
Table C.I A I Gas Prices
-....--. .
A . ~. .."'~
Annual A verage Natural Gas Prices
MidC & Utah ($/MMBtu)
Fiscal Year MidC Utah
2005 $4.$4.
2006 $4.48 $4,
2007 $4.$4.42
2008 $4,$4.47
2009 $4,$4,
2010 $4,$4.35
2011 $4.$4,
2012 $4.$3,
2013 $4,$4,
2014 $4,$4.
2015 $4.$3.
2016 $4,$3.
2017 $4,$4,
2018 $4.$4.
2019 $4,$4,
2020 $5.$4.
2021 $5.$4.
2022 $5.$4.
2023 $5.$4.
2024 $5.43 $5.
Figure c.I Annual Average Natural Gas prices
Annual Average Natural Gas Prices
$6.
$5.
.E $5.
::;:::;
.,. $4.
$4.
$3.
ri,ri,ri,ri,ri,
ri,
Fiscal Year
- 27 -
PacifiCorp IRP Update
C 3able Annua A veral!e oal Prices for each of the PacifiCoro owned Dlants
Annual Average Delivered Coal Price by Plant
($IMMBtu)
Fiscal Year Cbona Colslrio Carbon Hunter Huntin~ton Havden Crai~BriMer Johnston Nauohton Wvodak2004$1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.2005 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.2006 $1.42 $0.$0.$0.$0.$1.05 $1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2007 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2008 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$1.$0.$1.$0.2009 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2010 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2011 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2012 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2013 $1.$0.$0.$0.$0.$0.$1.$0.$0.$1.$0.2014 $1.67 $0.$0.$0,$0.$0,$1.$0,$0,$1.$0.2015 $1.$0.$0,$1,$0,$0,$1.$0,$0.$1.$0.2016 $1.74 $0.$0,$1,$0,$1.01 $1.$0,$0,$1.$0,2017 $1.78 $0.$1.$1.03 $1.!l;O,!l;1.39 s;6:842018$1,$0,$1.$0,$1.05 !l:1.$1.$0.$1.2019 $1.$0.$0,$1.10 $0,$1.07 $1,$1.$0.$1,$0.2020 $1.$0.$0.$1.12 $1,$1.$1.$1.$0,$1,$0.2021 $1,$0.$0,$1,$1,$1.$1.$1.$0.$1.$0.2022 $1.$1.$0.$1.$1.$1.$1,$1.$0.$1.53 $0.2023 $2.$1.$0.$1.$1.$1.$1.$1.$0.$1.$0.
- 28 -
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.
4
0
58
.
58
.
12
1
,
18
1
.
33
.
41
.
2
5
55
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
12
,
50
9
41
5
00
8
06
1
25
5
27
2
11
,
27
2
11
,
4
5
0
45
0
11
,
55
2
68
3
13
,
64
5
12
,
4
0
6
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
L
o
a
d
20
.
30
.
30
0
.
24
5
.
24
5
,
13
0
,
13
0
.
25
.
25
.
70
.
12
0
.
17
.
20
.
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
14
,
04
4
01
2
58
5
89
4
12
,
08
8
10
,
4
4
4
10
,
4
4
4
13
,
92
9
13
,
92
9
78
4
12
,
63
5
16
,
20
9
29
1
No
t
e
:
CB
=
C
a
r
b
o
n
OJ
=
D
a
v
e
J
o
h
n
s
t
o
n
GA
=
G
a
d
s
b
y
-
2
9
-
Pa
c
i
f
i
C
o
r
p
I
R
P
U
p
d
a
t
e
Ta
b
l
e
c
.
1
4
T
h
e
r
m
a
l
P
l
a
n
t
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
s
(c
o
n
t
i
n
u
e
d
)
:;
,
U
n
i
t
s
"
i.
G
A
3
!
,
i,;
;
'
Ha
l
j
i
;
l
~
r
.
t
t
!::
i
a
V
!
:
l
e
h
2
;
'
H
i
j
n
t
e
~
1
:
Hu
b
t
e
r
2
;
..'
Hu
n
t
~
iI
d
B
~
'
,,
~
i:"
j
~
i
10
0
%
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
Ne
t
D
e
p
e
n
d
a
b
l
e
R
a
t
i
n
g
,
10
0
%
10
0
18
4
26
2
23
7
23
7
43
0
43
0
46
0
44
0
45
5
53
0
53
0
53
0
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
10
3
15
3
15
3
20
0
20
0
16
0
22
0
22
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
Pa
c
i
f
i
C
o
r
p
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
Ca
p
a
c
i
t
y
10
0
%
25
%
13
%
10
0
%
10
0
%
94
%
60
%
10
0
%
10
0
%
10
0
%
67
%
67
%
67
%
Ne
t
D
e
p
e
n
d
a
b
l
e
R
a
t
i
n
g
10
0
23
7
23
7
40
3
25
9
46
0
44
0
45
5
35
3
35
3
35
3
Mi
n
i
m
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m
15
3
15
3
18
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12
1
16
0
22
0
22
0
13
3
13
3
13
3
He
a
t
R
a
t
e
10
0
%
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o
a
d
10
0
,
18
4
,
26
2
.
23
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23
7
,
43
0
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43
0
,
46
0
.
44
0
.
45
5
.
53
0
.
53
0
.
53
0
,
10
0
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
30
8
91
4
16
,
73
5
19
7
17
9
10
,
42
0
26
3
10
,
50
2
10
,
26
0
10
,
20
2
10
,
58
5
28
7
10
,
57
3
85
%
L
o
a
d
85
.
15
6
.
4
0
22
2
.
20
1
.
20
1
.
4
5
36
5
.
36
5
.
39
1
.
37
4
.
38
6
.
45
0
.
45
0
.
45
0
.
85
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
11
,
4
4
9
29
3
49
2
31
7
29
2
52
6
10
,
26
2
10
,
53
2
10
,
27
4
10
,
20
4
48
9
10
,
27
0
10
,
4
7
9
70
%
L
o
a
d
70
.
12
8
.
18
3
.
4
0
16
5
,
16
5
.
30
1
,
30
1
.
32
2
,
30
8
.
31
8
,
37
1
.
37
1
.
37
1
,
70
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
65
9
69
7
26
1
60
5
51
9
10
,
71
0
31
1
61
4
10
,
36
1
27
8
10
,
4
7
0
31
2
10
,
4
6
1
55
%
L
o
a
d
55
.
10
1
.
14
4
.
13
0
.
13
0
.
23
6
.
23
6
.
25
3
.
24
2
.
25
0
,
29
1
.
29
1
.
29
1
,
55
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
99
5
14
8
13
,
05
0
20
0
95
3
03
6
10
,
4
5
2
10
,
79
0
10
,
58
1
10
,
47
9
58
8
10
,
4
6
3
58
2
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
L
o
a
d
25
.
73
.
10
3
.
15
3
.
15
3
.
20
0
.
20
0
.
16
0
,
22
0
.
22
0
.
20
0
.
20
0
.
20
0
.
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
95
4
68
8
83
0
77
5
64
5
33
4
10
,
60
5
39
1
10
,
70
5
10
,
64
1
10
9
10
,
93
8
10
9
No
t
c
:
GA
=
G
a
d
s
b
y
HR
=
H
e
r
m
i
s
t
o
n
HN
=
H
u
n
t
i
n
g
t
o
n
JB
=
J
i
m
B
r
i
d
g
e
r
-
3
0
-
Pa
c
i
f
i
C
o
r
p
1R
P
Up
d
a
t
e
Ta
b
l
e
c
.
1
4
T
h
e
r
m
a
l
P
l
a
n
t
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
s
(c
o
n
t
i
n
u
e
d
)
..
,
"
"
c;
:
Un
i
t
s
'
"J
B
4
NT
1
'
N
T
2
g
:
~
.
N
T
3
;
~
,
'G
A
4
~
6
;
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V
1
Y
S
10
0
%
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a
p
a
c
i
t
y
Ne
t
D
e
p
e
n
d
a
b
l
e
R
a
t
i
n
g
,
10
0
%
53
0
16
0
21
0
33
0
33
5
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
20
0
10
5
20
0
18
0
Pa
c
i
f
i
C
o
r
p
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
Ca
p
a
c
i
t
y
67
%
10
0
%
10
0
%
10
0
%
80
%
10
0
%
10
0
%
Ne
t
D
e
p
e
n
d
a
b
l
e
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a
t
i
n
g
35
3
16
0
21
0
33
0
26
8
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
13
3
10
5
20
0
14
4
He
a
t
R
a
t
e
10
0
%
L
o
a
d
53
0
.
16
0
.
21
0
.
33
0
.
33
5
.
40
.
40
,
10
0
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
60
6
10
,
63
9
60
6
10
,
4
4
0
74
6
10
,
10
8
10
,
10
8
85
%
L
o
a
d
45
0
.
13
6
.
17
8
.
28
0
.
28
4
.
34
,
34
.
85
0
/6
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
10
,
50
3
70
0
10
,
65
5
10
,
4
7
1
86
8
50
0
10
,
50
0
70
%
L
o
a
d
37
1
.
11
2
.
14
7
.
23
1
.
23
4
.
28
.
28
.
70
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
10
,
4
7
1
82
0
10
,
75
8
10
,
57
5
04
9
11
,
08
3
08
3
55
%
L
o
a
d
29
1
.
88
.
11
5
.
18
1
.
18
4
.
22
.
22
.
55
%
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
57
1
05
0
95
9
10
,
81
0
33
5
01
1
12
,
01
1
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
L
o
a
d
20
0
.
80
.
10
5
.
20
0
.
18
0
.
10
,
10
.
Mi
n
i
m
u
m
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
BT
U
/
K
W
h
05
4
16
8
06
3
10
,
70
1
36
7
39
5
39
5
No
t
e
:
JB
=
J
i
m
B
r
i
d
g
e
r
NT
=
N
a
u
g
h
t
o
n
WY
=
W
y
o
d
a
k
WV
=
W
e
s
t
V
a
l
l
e
y
-
3
1
-
Pa
c
i
f
i
C
o
r
p
I
R
P
U
p
d
a
t
e
T
b
1
C
1
8
.
I
S
ot
e
n
h
a
UD
D
l
v
S
i
d
e
Re
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
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I
v
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d
e
R
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
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i
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t
.
Ma
x
i
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u
m
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t
a
g
e
Eq
u
i
v
a
l
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n
l
Pla
n
t
L
e
a
d
Ca
p
a
c
i
t
y
Ca
p
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t
a
l
C
o
s
t
An
n
u
a
l
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t
e
(
1
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Fo
r
c
e
d
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x
e
d
In
s
t
a
l
l
a
t
i
o
n
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e
-
Ca
p
a
c
i
t
y
Ad
d
i
t
i
o
n
p
e
r
in
$/
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t
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t
e
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PacifiCorp IRP Update
Table C.26 Wholesale Market Prices
Flat Prices (7X24)Medium Price Forecast
Fiscal Year Period COB MidC
Apr-Mar-43,41.39.
Apr-Mar-41,39,37.
Apr-Mar-41.40.47 38,
Apr-Mar-43.39.40.
Apr-Mar-45.40.43.
Apr -09 Mar-47.49 41.47.
Apr-10 Mar-48.42.48.
APr-Mar-48.43.48.
Apr-Mar-47.43.48 47.
Apr-Mar-48,44.42 48,
Apr-Mar-49,45.49.
Apr-Mar-50,47,50.
Apr-Mar-51.48,51.
Apr-Mar-55,51.54.
Apr-Mar-57,53.57.
Apr-Mar-60.55.59.
Apr-Mar-61,57,60.
Apr-Mar-61.49 57.61.
Apr-Mar-63.58.63.
Apr-Mar-65.60.64,
Apr-Mar-67.62.66.
Apr-Mar-69.64.68.
Apr-Mar-71.66.71.
Apr-Mar-73.42 68,73.
Apr-Mar-75.70.75.
Apr-Mar-77.72.47 77.
Apr-Mar-80.74.79.
Apr-Mar-82.76.82.
Apr-Mar-85.79.84.
- 36 "