HomeMy WebLinkAbout20060413Load growth report.pdf~~~!fJ ~9
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Pacific Power I Utah Power
Rocky Mountain Power
825 NE Multnomah
Portland, Oregon 97232
April 13 2006
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VIA OVERNIGHT DELIVERY
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington
Boise, ID 83702-5983
Attn: Jean D. Jewell
Commission Secretary
Re:Case No. PAC-O2-
PacifiCorp s Petition to Initiate Investigation of Inter-Jurisdictional Issues
Addendum 1 to PacifiCorp s Load Growth Report - Compliance Filing
PacifiCorp submits for filing an original and seven (7) copies of Addendum 1 to PacifiCorp
Load Growth Report, which was previously filed as a compliance filing with the Commission on
October 20, 2005, Addendum 1 provides detailed discussion of two cost shift structural
protection mechanisms.
At the request ofthe MSP Standing Committee, the MSP Load Growth Workgroup continued to
meet to further develop two of the structural protection mechanisms overviewed in Section 5.4.
Page 21 (ECD Alternative 1) and Section 5.4.2 Page 21 (ECD Alternative 2) ofPacifiCorp
Load Growth Report. These activities are intended to fulfill Section XIII.B.5 ofthe Revised
Protocol that directs the MSP Standing Committee to develop:
...
one or more mechanisms that could be implemented in a timely
manner in the event that load growth studies show a material and
sustained harm to particular States from the implementation of the
IRP..
Addendum 1 is filed with the Commission as an informational filing only. For each mechanism
Addendum 1 contains the mechanism description, process, implementation and examples. The
filing of this addendum is not intended to portray any definitive agreement among the MSP
participants as to a chosen structural protection mechanism, nor suggest that a structural
protection is required to be implemented at this time. As concluded in PacifiCorp s Load
Growth Report, it is recommended that these structural protection mechanisms (or an alternative
ECD-based approach) be re-evaluated if and when future analysis shows there may be
inappropriate cost shifts due to load growth.
It is respectfully requested that all formal correspondence and staff requests regarding this matter
be addressed to:
By E-mail (preferred):datarequest~pacifi corp. com
By Fax:(503) 813 6060
By Regular Mail:Data Request Response Center
PacifiCorp
825 NE Multnomah, Suite 300
Portland, OR 97232
Informal inquiries may also be directed to Greg Duvall (503 813 7069) or Cathie Allen (503 813
6019).
Very truly yours
~J~~
(p."
Andrea Kelly
V ice-President, Regulation
Enclosures
cc: Service List 02-035-
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE
I hereby certify that on this 12th day of April, 2006 I caused to be served, via First
Class U.S. Mail, a true and correct copy of Addendum 1 to PacifiCorp s Load Growth Report.
Eric L. Olsen
Racine, Olson, Nye, Budge &
Bailey
201 E. Center
O. Box 1391
Pocatello, ill 83204-1391
Randall Budge
Racine, Olson, Nye, Budge &
Bailey
201 E. Center
O. Box 1391
Pocatello, ill 83204-1391
James R. Smith
Monsanto Company
Highway 34 North
Soda Springs, ill 83276
Anthony Yankel
29814 Lake Road
Bay Village, OR 44140
Sue Farmer
MSP Administrative Coordinator
825 NE Multnomah, Suite 600
Portland, OR 97232
Katherine McDowell
Stoel Rives LLP
900 SW 5th Ave
Portland, OR 97204
Andrea Kelly
Director Regulation
PacifiCorp
825 NE Multnomah, Suite 2000
Portland, OR 97232
Dw~ D~s-
Debbie DePetris
Regulatory Analyst
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Multi-State Process
Addendum
PacifiCorp
Load Growth Report
Apri I 11 , 2006
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MSP Load Growth Workgroup
ECD Alternative 1
Process, Proposal, and Illustrative Example
April 11, 2006
Table of Contents
Attachment I Proposed Process for ECD Alternative
Attachment 2 Description ofECD Alternative
Attachment 3 Illustrative Example ofthe New Resource ECD
3a - Calculation of the ECD Year
3 b - Calculation of the ECD Year 2
3c - Allocation of the ECD
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
lof)ECD Altemarive 1
Table of Con tents
ATTACHMENT 1
. MSP Load Growth Workgroup
ECD Alternative 1
Proposed Process and Implementation
April 11,2006
The following outlines the process to be followed for potential implementation of the
structural protection mechanism referred to as ECD Alternative 1. It should be noted that
nothing in this proposed process is intended to circumvent the authority and decision-
making ability of each State Commission. Any amendment to the Revised Protocol
would require the approval of each State Commission that previously ratified the Revised
Protocol. It should also be noted that the Utah Commission MSP Order requires the
Company to file with the Commission regarding the materiality of possible harm to other
states from a fast growing jurisdiction before taking a position before the MSP Standing
Committee.
This document should be reviewed in conjunction with the documents entitled
Embedded Cost Differential Alternatives Matrix" (the "Matrix ) and "Description of
ECD Alternative 1" which is included in this packet as Attachment 2. For additional
background materials, also refer to the MSP Load Growth Workgroup meeting materials
(this workgroup met from March 2005 to February 2006). ECD Alternative 1 , and its
associated documents attached herewith, is based on what is known at the time of
developing the mechanism and compiling the associated documents. It is recommended
that this proposal be re-evaluated if and when future analysis shows there may be
inappropriate cost shifts due to load growth and a structural protection mechanism is
considered for implementation.
PROCESS
The MSP Standing Committee will track the key factors outlined in Section 4 of
the MSP Load Growth Report dated October 20, 2005.
The MSP Standing Committee will evaluate whether changes in key factors
indicate the potential for over or under allocation of costs. Based on their
evaluation, the MSP Standing Committee decides whether to direct further study.
Based on direction from the MSP Standing Committee, the Company will
perform and analyze the "Study" as defined in the Revised Protocol (page 7
footnote 2) and also stated in the Matrix. The study period includes ten years
forecasted data that covers the same time period as the Company s most recent
IRP.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
lof4 ECD Altemarive I
Anachment I
The Utah Commission MSP Order requires the Company to file with the
Commission regarding the materiality of possible harm to other states ITom a fast
growing jurisdiction before taking a position before the MSP Standing
Committee. If the Company makes such a filing in Utah, a copy of the filing will
be provided to the MSP participants.
The results of the study will be provided to the MSP Standing Committee, and
they will analyze the results against the triggers as defined in the Matrix and listed
below. If the fastest growing State is paying between 85% - 115% (on an NPV
basis) in any ten-year study, it has been agreed that there is no material harm and
no action is required. A trigger occurs if any of the following conditions apply:-
The fastest growing State is paying below 80% in any ten year study (on an
NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying below 85% for two consecutive ten year
studies (on an NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying below 90% for three consecutive ten year
studies (on an NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 110% for three consecutive ten
year studies (on an NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 115% for two consecutive ten year
studies (on an NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 120% in any ten year study (on an
NPV basis)
If a trigger has not been reached, no further action is necessary.
If a trigger is reached, the Company will conduct further analysis, similar to the
earlier MSP Load Growth Workgroup studies in which the fastest growing State
load was increased by 100 aMW while retaining its load shape and matched by
150 MW of resource (note: for the MSP studies carried out to-date, Utah has been
the fastest growing State). These studies are designed to isolate the effect of the
divergence in incremental and embedded cost from the effect ora load and
resource imbalance. If, through these additional study processes, a thermal
resource (for instance) is identified as potentially problematic (i., is causing the
under or over allocation of costs based upon an agreed to threshold), that resource
will be earmarked for further analysis to be performed as that resource enters a
rate case for inclusion into rate base.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
2of4 ECD Altemillive I
Attaclunent I
As the costs of the earmarked resource (or the costs of a resource similar to the
earmarked resource) appear in a rate case, the load growth analysis will be
updated with current load-growth statistics and market conditions. The results of
all the associated studies are provided to the MSP Standing Committee.
Based upon the results, the MSP Standing Committee may decide on one of the
following three actions (or other actions that are deemed appropriate and within
the scope of the MSP Standing Committee, and as established in Section XIII B
of the Revised Protocol and the MSP Standing Committee Guidelines):-
Do nothing,
If the earmarked resource continues to reach the established triggers,
recommend that a "New Resource ECD" for the earmarked resource should
be applied for two years. The "New Resource ECD" will apply only to those
resources that reach the triggers and will be applied symmetrically for over
allocation as well as under allocation
Recommend potential changes to the Revised Protocol that are considered to
address a material and/or sustained harm on a more permanent basis (see Item
1 0 below).
10.It should be noted that changes such as a New Resource ECD and/or potential
changes to the Revised Protocol can only be implemented upon the approval
each State Commission that previously adopted the Revised Protocol. Refer to
Section XIII C of the Revised Protocol for further clarification.
IMPLEMENTATION
The implementation ofECD Alternative 1 using a "New Resource ECD" requires the
following steps to be performed:-
Create a "New Resource ECD" category.
Compare the cost of the new "earmarked" resource ($/MWh) to the cost ofthe
Annual Embedded Cost - All Other . The difference represents the embedded
cost differential associated with the new "earmarked" resource.
The newly constructed "earmarked" resource is included in the ECD for two
years.
A separate calculation is applied for each new "earmarked" resource.
In the first year, the ECD is allocated using the SG factor with projected loads two
years beyond the test year.
MSP Load Grow1h Workgroup
April 11 2006
3 of4 ECD Altemarive I
Attaclunent I
In the second year, the ECD is allocated using an SG factor calculated with
projected loads one year beyond the test year.
The inverse amount of the ECD is backed out from the states using the test year
SG factor.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April II, 2006
4of4 ECD Altemanve I
Attachment I
A TT ACHMENT 2
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
ECD Alternative 1
Description of ECD Alternative 1
April 11, 2006
OVERVIEW
ECD Alternative 1 is based on the temporary assignment of new resources to the fastest growing
State. This alternative proposes that the MSP Standing Committee track key factors that have
been identified as early identifiers of potential inappropriate costs shifts due toa faster growing
State. A list ofthe Key Tracking Factors can be found in PacifiCorp s Load Growth Report
dated October 20, 2005, (Section 4). The MSP Standing Committee will review these factors
each year and detennine whether changes indicate the potential for under or over allocation
costs due to load growth. If changes in key factors do indicate the potential for under or over
allocation of the costs ofload growth, the MSP Standing Committee will decide whether further
study is required. Should the MSP Standing Committee request further study, the Company will
perfonn the two load growth studies as defined in the Revised Protocol (page 7 footnote 2) and
restated in PacifiCorp s Load Growth Report dated October 20, 2005 (Section 3).
Study 1 -includes the current IRP load forecast and preferred resource portfolio.
Study 2 - modifies the forecasted load growth so that the fastest growing State is growing
the average growth projected for the other States. In addition, the IRP Preferred Portfolio is
adjusted by removing planned resources, as needed, in order to maintain a consistent
planning margin.
The two studies cover a ten-year forecasted period, consistent with the Company s most recent IRP.
The results ofthe two studies are compared to detennine the incremental costs due to load growth and
each State s share ofthe incremental costs. Ifthe fastest growing State is paying between 85% - 115%
(on an NPV basis) in any ten-year study, it has been agreed that there is no material hanD and no action
is required.
A trigger occurs if any of the following conditions apply:-
The fastest growing State is paying below 80% in any ten year study (on an NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying below 85% for two consecutive ten year studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying below 90% for three consecutive ten year studies (on. an NPV
basis)
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
lofS ECD Alternative J
Attachment 2
The fastest growing State is paying above 110% for three consecutive ten year studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 115% for two consecutive ten year studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 120% in any ten year study (on an NPV basis)
If a trigger is reached, the Company will conduct further analysis, similar to the earlier MSP
Load Growth Workgroup studies in which the fastest growing State s load was increased by 100
aMW while retaining its load shape and matched by ISO MW of resource (note: for the MSP
studies carried out to-date, Utah has been the fastest growing State). These studies are designed
to isolate the effect of the divergence in incremental and embedded cost from the effect ofa load
and resource imbalance. If, through these additional study processes, a thermal resource is
identified as potentially problematic (i., is causing the under or over allocation of costs based
upon an agreed to threshold), that resource will be earmarked for further analysis to be
performed as that resource enters a rate case for inclusion into rate base.
As the costs of an earmarked resource (or the costs of a resource similar to the earmarked
resource) appear in a rate case, the load-growth analysis for the resource will be updated with
current load-growth statistics and market conditions. Ifthe updated study results continue to
meet the established triggers, a New Resource ECD calculation will be created and applied for
two years. The New Resource ECD will apply only to those thermal resources that exceed
agreed upon thresholds and will be applied symmetrically for over allocation as well as under
allocation.
The hypothetical examples below may help illustrate when the trigger occurs:
Example #1
No Triggers Reached
No New Resource ECD Required
1st 10-2nd 100Yr 3rd 10- Yr 4th 100Yr 5th 10-6th 100Yr
Study Study Study Study Study Study
10-Yr NPV 84%90%83%95%102%95%
Trigger Not Triggered Not Triggered Not Triggered Not Triggered Not Triggered Not Triggered
Status
New
Resource
ECD
Required?
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
2ofS ECD Alternative I
Attachment 2
Illustrative
Years
lO-Yr NPV
Trigger
Status
Earmark
Study
Re uired
Identify
Problem
Thermal
Resource
Update
Earmark
Study
Problem
Resource
Confirmed
New
Resource
ECD
Re uired
Explanation
Example #2
Triggers Reached in Consecutive Studies and Solitary Study
New Resource ECD Required
lS'IO-Yr
Stud
2nd lO-
Stud
2010 2011
95%
Not Triggered Not Triggered
Two
consecutive
IO-Yr Studies
-:::::85%
One lO-
study
-:::::
80%
*This is for illustrative purposes only to illustrate the lag from when a resource is earmarked
until it enters into rates. This is not meant to imply that studies will be performed annually.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
3 of 5 ECD Alternative I
Anaclunent 2
NEW RESOURCE ECD
The New Resource ECD operates very much like the Hydro, Mid-C and Existing QFECD
calculations in the current Revised Protocol. In the New Resource ECD calculation, a New
Resource category would be created. This category would contain the costs of each newly
constructed owned and "earmarked" resource for a period of two years. As with other ECD
adjustments, the amount by which the costs ofthe "earmarked" resource differs from the costs of
the "Annual Embedded Cost - All Other" would be allocated to States using a forward looking
SG factor calculated with projected loads from a future period. Projected loads two years
beyond the test period would be used during the first year of the ECD assignment and one year
beyond the test period during the second year. The inverse amount would then be allocated back
to States using the SG factor from the test period. There may be times when there are both first
and .second year "earmarked" resources in the New Resource category. Because a different
allocation factor is applied during the first and second years that a resource is included in the
New Resource ECD, a separate calculation would be made for each resource.
The costs of all resources continue to be allocated on system load based allocation factors.
one State grows faster than the other States, that State is allocated a larger portion of the cost of
all resources. The faster growing State will already be allocated an increased share, a share that
reflects differential load growth, ofthe average embedded cost of the portfolio. The New
Resource ECD only needs to provide a supplemental allocation of the amount by which the
earmarked" resource costs differs from average embedded costs.
The Company s studies on the impact of differential load growth show that the largest potential
for cost shifts occur during the first two years after a new resource comes on line. This is driven
by front revenue requirement loading of owned resources. The impact of front end loading is
mostly offset by the third year as the allocation of all generation, transmission and common
overhead costs to the faster growing State has increased enough to absorb the incremental costs
difference.
SUMMARY NEW RESOURCE EMBEDDED COST DIFFERENTIAL ADJUSTMENT
Create New Resource ECD category.
Compare costs of new "earmarked" resource ($/MWh) to cost of "Annual Embedded Cost-
All Other" ($/MWh). The difference represents the embedded cost differential associated
with the new "earmarked" resource.
Newly constructed "earmarked" resources are included in the ECD for two years.
. A separate calculation is applied for each new "earmarked" resource.
In the first year, the ECD is allocated using the SG factor calculated with projected loads two
years beyond the test year.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
4ofS ECD Alternative J
Auachm...t 2
In the second year, the ECD is allocated using the SG factor calculated with projected loads
one year beyond the test year.
The inverse amount of the ECD is backed out from the States using the test year SG factor.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
Aprill!20O6
5of5 ECD Allemative I
Anachment 2
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MSP Load Growth Workgroup
ECD Alternative 2
Process, Proposal, and Illustrative Example
April 11 2006
Table of Contents
Attachment 1 Proposed Process for ECD Alternative 2
Attachment 2 Description ofECD Alternative 2
Attachment 3 Illustrative Example of Transfer Payment for Alternative 2
3a - Calculation ofthe Transfer Payment and Ranking of New
Resources
3b - Calculation of the ECD for New Resources
3c - Assignment! Allocation of the Transfer Payment
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
I of I ECD Alternative 2
Table ofc"ntents
A TT A CHMENT 1
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
ECD Alternative 2
Proposed Process and Implementation
April 11, 2006
The following outlines the process to be followed for potential implementation ofECD
Alternative 2. It should be noted that nothing in this proposed process is intended to circumvent
the authority and decision-making ability of each State Commission. Any amendments to the
Revised Protocol would require the approval of each State Commission that previously ratified
the Revised Protocol. It should also be noted that the Utah Commission MSP Order requires the
Company to file with the Commission regarding the materiality of possible harm to other states
from a fast growing jurisdiction before taking a position before the MSP Standing Committee.
This document should be reviewed in conjunction with the documents entitled "Embedded Cost
Differential Alternatives Matrix" (the "Matrix ) and "Description ofECD Alternative 2" which
is included in this packet as Attachment 2. For additional background materials, also refer to the
MSP Load Growth Workgroup meeting materials (this workgroup met from March 2005 to
February 2006). ECD Alternative 2, and its associated documents attached herewith, is based on
what is known' at the time of developing the mechanism and compiling the associated
documents. It is recommended that this proposal be re-evaluated if and when future analysis
shows there may be inappropriate cost shifts due to load growth and a structural protection
mechanism is considered for implementation.
PROCESS
1. The MSP Standing Committee will track the key factors outlined in Section 4 of the MSP
Load Growth Report dated October 20, 2005.
2. The MSP Standing Committee will evaluate whether changes in key factors indicate the
potential for over or under allocation of power-related costs to any ofPacifiCorp s State
jurisdictions. Based on their evaluation, the MSP Standing Committee will decide whether
to direct further study.
3. Based on direction from the MSP Standing Committee, the Company will perform and
analyze the "Study" as defined in the Revised Protocol (page 7 footnote 2) and also stated in
the Matrix. The study period includes up to six years historical data and one year forecasted
data, but in no event will the study go back further than January 1 2005.
4. The Utah Commission MSP Order requires the Company to file with the Commission
regarding the materiality of possible harm to other states from a fast growing jurisdiction
before taking a position before the MSP Standing Committee. If the Company makes such a
filing in Utah, a copy of the filing will be provided to the MSP participants.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
Ion ECD Alternative 2
Attachment I
5. The results of the study will be provided to the MSP Standing Committee where they will be
analyzed against the "Triggers" as defined in the Matrix and listed below. If the fastest
growing State is paying between 85% - 115% (on an NPV basis), in any seven-year study, it
has been agreed that there is no material harm and no action is required. A trigger occurs if
cost recovery for the fastest growing State falls within the following ranges:-
The fastest growing State is paying below 80% in any study (on an NPV basis).
The fastest growing State is paying below 85% for two consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis).
The fastest growing State is paying below 90% for three consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis).
The fastest growing State is paying above 110% for three consecutive studies (on an
NPV basis).
The fastest growing State is paying above 115% for two consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis).
The fastest growing State is paying above 120% in any study (on an NPV basis).
6. If a trigger has not been reached, no further action is necessary at this time.
7. If a trigger is reached, the results are provided to the MSP Standing Committee for furtheraction.
8. Based upon the results, the MSP Standing Committee may decide to recommend to each
signatory state one of following four actions (or other actions that are deemed appropriate
and within the scope of the MSP Standing Committee, and as established in Section XIII B
of the Revised Protocol and the MSP Standing Committee Guidelines):-
. Do nothing.
Recommend the implementation ofECD Alternative 2 - which incorporates a transfer
payment for over/under allocation of costs attributed to load growth.
Consider recommending amendments to the Revised Protocol that are considered to
address a material and/or sustained harm on a more permanently basis.
Consider new studies to determine whether or not the cost shift actually occurred or if
there are offsetting benefits which make compensation unnecessary.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
20f3 ECD Alternative 2
Attachmen' I
9. It should be noted that the approval of each State Commission, through the established
regulatory processes in each State, is required before an amendment to the Revised Protocol
is adopted. Any State can choose to independently implement a New Resource ECD and/or
potential changes to the Revised Protocol; however, the Company or other States can claim
the deviating state is no longer a signatory to the Revised Protocol and as such the Revised
Protocol may no longer exist. Also refer to Section XIII C of the Revised Protocol for
further clarification of the intent of the original adoption of the Revised Protocol by each
the adopting State Commissions.
IMPLEMENTATION
The implementation ofECD Alternative 2 using a transfer payment requires the following steps
to be performed:-
1. Recommendation to and approval by each State Commission.
2. Determine amount of transfer payment. If triggers indicate that the fastest growing State is
not paying enough of the incremental revenue requirement due to load growth, the transfer
payment should be sufficient such that the fastest growing State is assigned 90% of the '
incremental revenue requirement. If triggers indicate that the fastest growing State is paying
more than the incremental revenue requirement due to load growth, the transfer payment to
the fastest growing State should be sufficient such that the fastest growing State is assigned
110% of incremental revenue requirement.
3. On a $IMWh basis, rank new resources acquired during the seven year study period from
highest cost (first) to lowest cost (last). Renewable or hydro-electric resources are to be
excluded.
4. Calculate the embedded cost differential of the highest $IMWh new resource ranked in Step
2 to the embedded cost of the remaining new resources.
5. Compare the ECD calculated in Step 4 to the amount ofthe transfer payment calculated in
Step 2. 'lithe amount calculated in Step 2 exceeds the amount calculated in Step 4, repeat
Step 4 using the next highest cost resource identified in Step 3. Repeat process until the
differential is sufficient to cover the amount ofthe transfer payment calculated in Step 2.
6. The amount ofthe transfer payment is assigned situs to the fastest growing state and reversed
from the remaining states using a five-state SG factor. The payment is then amortized over a
seven year period at a discount rate of 5%. The payment will continue for seven years or
until another trigger event occurs.
7. Each study is evaluated against the triggers to determine whether the trigger is triggered
again. Iftriggered again, this process is repeated.
MSPLoad Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
3 of3 ECD Altemlllive 2
Attadunenl I
TT A CHMENT 2
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
ECD Alternative 2
Description of ECD Alternative 2
April 11, 2006
This straw proposal (known as "ECD Alternative 2") presents a structural protection for
excessive cost shifts. The proposal uses concepts embodied in the Revised Protocol relating to
the treatment of hydroelectric resources. A key component of this proposal is the annual use of
comparative grid runs, each with the same study period. The study period includes up to six
years of historical data along with a projected one-year term. Note that historical analysis will
not be further back in time than January 1 2005. For any study conducted before December 31
2010, the time period of cost-shift analysis will include less than seven years of data. Studies
conducted subsequent to December 31,2010, will use a seven-year period, comprised of the
most recent six-year history along with a projected one-year term. The analysis will use the
actual costs of new resources as available.
For the study period, two Grid runs would be used. The first would be based on Grid and the
Revised Protocol for the relevant time period as defined above, using existing resources during
the historic time period and IRP identified resources as needed for the projected future one-year
period. As such, the first Grid run would also include the new resources and contracts acquired
during the historic years of the study period. The second modeling exercise would-have two
complementary adjustments. First, the highest growth state (in terms of aMW) would have its
loads revised to equal the average growth rate (in percentage terms) ofthe remaining states. For
the start of the study period, the highest growth state would begin with the actual loads for the
initial year of the study period. (Loads could be normalized for weather if that is the standard
practice.) The subsequent years (up to six years) would be adjusted so that high growth state
loads grow at the average percentage growth rate equal to that of the remaining jurisdictional
states. Resources, including purchases, would be adjusted downwards reflecting the reduction in
loads and reserves consistent with standard business practices. The removal of resources and
purchases would be consistent with the IRPs and knowledge available at the time, over the study
period to reflect the revised load levels. So adjustments would be made to resources and
contracts for both the historic years as well as the one-year projected period of the study period.
Only new resources and longer-term purchases added over the unadjusted study period may be
dropped from the analysis should the adjusted load levels no longer warrant the power purchase
reserves, or new resource coming on line as scheduled. New resources, as the last sentence
suggests, could have on-line dates changed so that they remain in the analysis, but come on line
later in the study period.
The two studies would be compared to calculate what percentage of the increase in costs from
the higher load levels was being allocated to the highest growth state. If the highest growth state
pays between 85% and 115% on an NPV basis over the study period, there is deemed to be no
material harm and no action is required-there is not the presence of an "excessive" cost shift.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
lof6 ECD Alternative 2
Attachment 2
A trigger occurs ifany of the following conditions apply:-
The fastest growing State is paying below 80% in any study (on an NPV basis)
The fastest growing State is paying below 85% for two consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying below 90% for three consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 110% for three consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 115% for two consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
The fastest growing State is paying above 120% in any study (on an NPV basis)
The hypothetical examples below may help illustrate when the trigger occurs:
Example #1
No Triggers Reached
No Transfer Payments Necessary
1st Stud 2" Stud
Yr NPV 84%90%83%95%102%95%
Trigger Status
New Transfer
Payment
Re uired?
MSP Load GroWlh Workgroup
April 11 2006
2of6 ECD Alrem.live 2
Atraclunenl 2
Example #2
Triggers Reached In Consecutive Studies and a Solitary Study
Transfer Payments Required
Explanation
3rd Study 4th Study 6th Study
Yr NPV 91%*95%*95%*
Restated 7 yr NPV
based on Transfer
payment
Trigger Status
New Transfer
Payment
Required?
'" = The transfer payments continue for a maximum of seven years or until another nigger event occurs (whichever occurs sooner),
The percentage values after the transfer payments begin include the effect of the transfer payments.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
3of6 ECD Allemative 2
Attachment 2
Example #3
Triggers Reached In a Solitary Study and Consecutive Studies
Transfer Payments Required
Explanation
6th Stud
7 Yr NPV 102%*95%*
Restated 7-Yr NPV
based on Transfer
a ment
Tri er Status
New Transfer
Payment
Required?
. = The transfer payments continue each following year until a new trigger event occurs, The percentage values after the transfer
payments begin include the effect of the transfer payments.
Once the trigger thresholds are met establishing the implementation of the structural protection
mechanism, the resources that came on line during the study period would be ranked for possible
use in the structural protection mechanism. New resources that are renewable or hydroelectric-
based would be excluded from the candidates considered for disparate treatment. (See Revised
Protocol, Section IV.C.2) The remaining new resources would be ranked first by identifying the
resources added within the historic period, or planned to come on line in the projected year, with
the highest cost per $/MWh being first and lowest cost per $/MWh last. Next transfer payments
would be established similar to the treatment of existing qualified facilities. In conceptual tenDS
the highest growth state bears the differential in cost between the resource added during the
study period and the average cost of the remaining PacifiCorp thermal resources.
The objective is to establish a set oftransfer payments such that 90% of the costs of new
resources needed to meet the differential in load growth are assigned to the highest growth state.
Repeating the text of a few pages ago will help illustrate how the amount of dollars is calculated
under this mechanism.
1. The fastest growing State is paying below 80% in any study (on an NPV basis)
2. The fastest growing State is paying below 85% for two consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
40f6 ECD Ahemative 2
Attachment 2
3. The fastest growing State is paying below 90% for three consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
4. The fastest growing State is paying above 110% for three consecutive studies (on an
NPV basis)
5. The fastest growing State is paying above 115% for two consecutive studies (on an NPV
basis)
6. The fastest growing State is paying above 120% in any study (on an NPV basis)
In cases 2 and 5, the amount of dollars is calculated by identifying the highest growth state
share of costs over the study period amounts over both studies and calculating the annual
increase in an ECD-type cost assignment in order for the studies to have the highest growth state
reflect the 90%, or 110%, cost level, whichever is applicable. For purposes of calculation, the
annual amounts for the two studies would be treated as ifit were a study of 14 years so as to get
an annualized number.
In cases 3 and 4, the amount of dollars is calculated by identifying the three studies and
calculating the annual increase in an ECD-type cost assignment in order for the studies to have
the highest growth state reflect the 90%, or 110%, cost level, whichever is applicable. For
purposes of calculation, the annual amounts for the three studies would be treated as if it were a
study of21 years so as to get an annualized number.
In cases 1 and 6, the single study is used and the annual amount reflects that needed each year in
order to bring cost assignment to the designated level of 90% or 110%.
Once the amount of ECD transfer is calculated using the method above, the ECD transfer is
established as a nominal payment, equal in present valued dollars, such that a seven-year stream
of annualized dollars is assumed to begin in unison with new rates established in a general rate
filing. The general rate filing would likely be the one ongoing and treated as the seventh year
the seven year study period. (So the forecasted seventh year is in essence the first year of the
seven-year ECD payment period.
For subsequent studies, coincident with the eligibility/validity for transfer payments, the transfer
payments would be included in the analysis.
Again, the difference in costs of the new resource would be compared to all other thermal
resources, with the higher than average costs being assigned to the highest growth state to the
extent necessary to achieve the 90% target. For example, if assigning all of the capacity ofthe
highest cost resource differential is insufficient with respect to the highest new thermal resource
then the next highest cost resource would be used for transfer payment purposes. These steps
would be repeated until the 90% target is met. Once the 90% target is met, the Revised Protocol
with the structural protection transfer payments would be used for PacifiCorp general rate filings
on a going forward basis until the trigger is triggered again. Similar actions would hold ifthe
110% target was the applicable outcome.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
5 of6 ECD Alternative 2
Attachment 2
The transfer payment from the high growth state equals the amount of money that is necessary to
bring the entire "trigger period" back to 90% or 110%, whichever is relevant and continue until a
new trigger event occurs. Payments to the slower growing states would be made on the basis of
relative SG factors. Transfer payments would include costs of resources or purchases projected
to come on line in the test period to the extent the state Commission finds that they are used and
useful, and as such would be included in rates.
MSP Load Growth Workgroup
April 11 2006
6of6 ECD Alternative 2
Attachment 2
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