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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20030930Duvall Exhibits.pdfGR I D To p o l o g y CO B . ' $ : 20 0 H L H SP 1 5 ( n o n - fi r m ) 3 8 0 40 5 * * * * . 3 4 7 * * DS W Mi d C o l u m b i a " $ .1 ~ 13 6 7 Id a h o 56 9 We s t M a i n ~ . I Se a s o n a l r a t i n g 40 1 t o 4 4 8 Ji m Br i d g e r We s t C o n t r o l Ar e a . Ea s t C o n t r o l Ar e a Wy o m i n g ~ . I 31 3 Ea s t M a i n ~ . I Le a e n d - L o a d p o i n t s ** * .I - R e s o u r c e - L i q u i d m a r k e t II I ( ~ - F T R ( M W ) No t e s * 9 2 N o v - Ap r a n d 5 4 M a y - Oc t ( n o n - fi r m ) ** 3 8 0 L L H . 3 4 7 H L H ** * p l u s 2 0 0 M W ( n o n - fi r m ) ** * * p l u s 2 6 0 / 6 0 ( n o n - fi r m ) J u n - Se p ~~ i i ~ ~ " , ' & S !I ; " ~ - a ~f ; " ~ . ?: ~ !' . : . . 10 . 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 00 % 8. 0 0 % 00 % Re v e n u e R e q u i r e m e n t C o m p a r i s o n Ba s e C a s e Hy b r i d P r o p o s a l Ch a n g e i n R e v e n u e R e q u i r e m e n t f r o m R o l l e d - In a n d M o d i f i e d A c c o r d S t u d i e s (% ) 10 . 00 % 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 , 2 0 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 ~~ ~ ' ! ! ~t T ~ t a ' ~ D i f f ; ~ i~ f r ~ ~ ~ A o/ ~ - 01 9 3 - 00 4 8 : 01 - ~l ~ ~ ~ 7 00 4 3 - ~~ ~ H ~ ~~ J 5 3 0 , 04 5 3 0 . 04 2 ~r 6 , ~1 1 4 0 , 00 5 7 0 , 00 5 ~ - 42 = ~ 01 2 9 E- ~ ~ S . ! T . ? ~ ~ J ~. ~i f f ~ ! ~ ~ ~ ~ ! r ~ ~ . R~ . "! ~ . n j _ 02 3 ~ - .9 : . ~~ 1 ~_ . 0 , ~1 4 j 0 . 1 L ~ . ~~ 5 0 00 3 ~ ~ - 00 7 ~- L ~~ ~ 0~ ~ ~ i - O~ ~ . ~ - ~~ . ?~ ~ ? - 0 , 00 2 7 . 1 0 ~~ 9 ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - Ch a n g e i n 15 - Yr N P V at 8 . 82 3 % rr ~ i .. ~ ~ ~ !I " , o - a ~ ~ v . ~ r r I ?: ~ 31 % 13 % Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s Ri s k A n a l y s e s MS P M e e t i n g Ju l y 15 - 1 7 , 2 0 0 3 Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s . P A C I F I C O R P Ri s k A n a l ys e s - O v e r v i e w Ob j e c t i v e - T o d e t e r m i n e h o w D y n a m i c a n d H y b r i d d i f f e r i n d e t e r m i n i n g S t a t e re v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d r e t a i l p r i c e s u n d e r c h a n g e s i n l o a d s , r e s o u r c e s a n d ma r k e t p r i c e . Th e s p e c i f i c s c e n a r i o s m a y g i v e r i s e t o c u s t o m e r r i s k o r s h a r e h o l d e r r i s k , o r bo t h . Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s . P A C I F I C O R P - 1 - ~C I ~ ~ 51 I I 6 ' 3 i !: 1 ~~ ~ !I ; " , , - a ~ i ! ; . z. . . ~. : . . Ri s k A n a l ys e s - S t u d y Li s t Lo a d R i s k A n a l y s e s We s t L o a d L o s s Ea s t L o a d L o s s Re s o u r c e R i s k A n a l y s e s We s t R e s o u r c e B a l a n c e Po o r H y d r o / H i g h M a r k e t Hi g h H y d r o / L o w M a r k e t Ea s t G e n e r a t i o n L o s s / H i g h M a r k e t Ma r k e t P r i c e R i s k A n a l y s e s Hi g h M a r k e t Lo w M a r k e t We s t P r i c e s G r e a t e r t h a n E a s t Ea s t P r i c e s G r e a t e r t h a n W e s t (1 0 y e a r s ) (1 0 y e a r s ) (1 y e a r ) (1 y e a r ) (1 y e a r ) (1 y e a r ) (1 5 y e a r s ) (1 y e a r ) (1 y e a r ) (1 y e a r ) Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 2 - . P A C I F I C O R P :E Q ! ! , i ! ' ~~ i i i .. ~~ E !I ~ . ~ n . ~t ? f. : . . Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s We s t L o a d L o s s 25 0 M W l o s s i n O r e g o n Sy s t e m b a l a n c i n g s a l e s i n c r e a s e d Ge n e r a t i o n r e d u c e d ( m o r e r e d u c t i o n i n W e s t t h a n E a s t ) Dy n a m i c a n d H y b r i d a l l o c a t e d r e d u c e d c o s t s s i m i l a r l y a c r o s s S t a t e s Ea s t L o a d L o s s 15 0 M W l o s s i n I d a h o , 1 0 0 M W l o s s i n W y o m i n g Sy s t e m B a l a n c i n g s a l e s i n c r e a s e d Ge n e r a t i o n r e d u c e d ( m o r e r e d u c t i o n i n E a s t t h a n W e s t ) Dy n a m i c a n d H y b r i d a l l o c a t e d r e d u c e d c o s t s s i m i l a r l y a c r o s s S t a t e s Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 3 - . P A C I F I C O R P :E D ~ i ! ' in t i S ' ; ! ; ~~ g !I ; " o - a ~ f ) . ~ ~ 1 z. . . ' 3 f': " Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s We s t R e s o u r c e B a l a n c e ( R e v i s e d ) Ba s e c a s e u s e s 2 0 0 3 l o a d f o r e c a s t a n d I R P P F - 1 r e s o u r c e s Re m o v e d 5 0 0 M W o f f - pe a k c o n t r a c t 2 0 0 4 - 20 0 6 i n W e s t Re m o v e d 2 0 0 M W f l a t c o n t r a c t 2 0 1 1 - 20 1 8 i n W e s t As s u m e d M i d - C / W e s t M a i n t r a n s m i s s i o n r i g h t s c o n t i n u e Re v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t s r e d u c e d 2 0 0 4 - 20 0 6 a n d 2 0 1 1 - 20 1 8 - N P V of r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t d e c r e a s e s b y $ 2 5 9 m i l l i o n . W e s t d e c r e a s e d by $ 9 4 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 1 8 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d Ea s t d e c r e a s e d b y $ 1 6 5 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 7 0 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 4 - . P A C I F I C O R P ~~ ~ i ! ' e z ~ 1 i i .. 0 z c . - !I ; " o - a 'I ! f ; . z" " 5" : " : ~ 2 Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s Po o r H y d r o Hi g h M a r k e t Ea s t a n d W e s t H y d r o a n d M i d - C g e n e r a t i o n r e d u c e d b y 20 0 / 0 Wh o l e s a l e p o w e r p r i c e s i n c r e a s e d u e t o l o w r e g i o n a l h y d r o Th e r m a l g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e d ( W e s t m o r e t h a n E a s t ) We s t i n c r e a s e d f u e l a n d p u r c h a s e c o s t s a n d l o s t s a l e s r e v e n u e s Ea s t i n c r e a s e d f u e l a n d p u r c h a s e c o s t s Ov e r a l l r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t i n c r e a s e d b y $ 4 6 m i l l i o n . T h e W e s t in c r e a s e d b y $ 1 7 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 3 7 m i l l i o n un d e r H y b r i d . T h e E a s t in c r e a s e d b y $ 2 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d i n a n d $ 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d . Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 5 - . P A C I F I C O R P ~! : \ ~ ~ " ~ 6 ' " ~ ~ . . . ;, , ~ - a in l z f 3 . . l': " Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s Hi g h H y d r o Lo w M a r k e t Ea s t a n d W e s t H y d r o a n d M i d - C g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e d b y 20 0 / 0 Wh o l e s a l e p o w e r p r i c e s d e c r e a s e d u e t o l o w r e g i o n a l h y d r o Th e r m a l g e n e r a t i o n d e c r e a s e d ( W e s t m o r e t h a n E a s t ) We s t d e c r e a s e d f u e l a n d p u r c h a s e c o s t s a n d i n c r e a s e d s a l e s r e v e n u e s Ea s t d e c r e a s e d f u e l c o s t s a n d d e c r e a s e d s a l e s r e v e n u e s Ov e r a l l r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t d e c r e a s e d b y $ 2 6 m i l l i o n . T h e W e s t d e c r e a s e d b y $9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 2 6 m i l l i o n un d e r H y b r i d . T h e E a s t de c r e a s e d b y $ 1 7 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d i n a n d w a s u n c h a n g e d un d e r H y b r i d . Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 6 - . P A C F I Co R P if .. ! ' : ; . : ~) ! ! , - a 'I f n - ~~ l f' : " Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s Ea s t G e n e r a t i o n L o s s Hi g h M a r k e t s As s u m e d t h e l o s s o f a 4 0 0 M W E a s t s i d e t h e r m a l u n i t f o r 1 y e a r Ma r k e t p r i c e s ( p o w e r a n d g a s ) b a s e d o n B u l l i s h G a s ( B G ) Th e r m a l g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e d ( m o r e E a s t t h a n W e s t ) Th e W e s t i n c r e a s e d s a l e s r e v e n u e s , o f f s e t b y a s m a l l f u e l c o s t i n c r e a s e Th e E a s t i n c r e a s e d f u e l a n d p u r c h a s e c o s t s Ov e r a l l r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t i n c r e a s e d b y $ 5 9 m i l l i o n . T h e W e s t in c r e a s e d b y $ 2 1 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d d e c r e a s e d $ 4 0 mi l l i o n u n d e r H y b r i d . T h e E a s t in c r e a s e d b y $ 3 8 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d b y $ 9 9 m i l l i o n un d e r H y b r i d Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 7 - . P A C I F I C O R P :E ! ? ~ i ! ' in 6 ' 5 ~~ ~ & S .. . o- a ;'"\3 . ~ ~ 1 ?: . . . . . . Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s Hi g h M a r k e t Us e d t h e B u l l i s h G a s ( B G ) f o r e c a s t fo r 10 y e a r s ( 2 0 0 4 - 20 1 3 ) - W e s t ' s c h a n g e i n r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t r a n g e s fr o m 24 m i l l i o n t o $ 1 7 mi l l i o n a n n u a l l y w h e n c o m p a r i n g R o l l e d - in t o H y b r i d - E a s t ' s c h a n g e i n r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t r a n g e s fro m $2 4 m i l l i o n t o $ - mi l l i o n a n n u a l l y w h e n c o m p a r i n g R o l l e d - in t o H y b r i d Th e N P V o f t h e r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t i n c r e a s e s $ 1 0 9 m i l l i o n . T h e W e s t in c r e a s e s b y $ 4 0 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d d e c r e a s e s b y $3 m i l l i o n u n d e r H y b r i d . . T h e E a s t in c r e a s e s b y $ 6 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 1 1 2 m i l l i o n un d e r H y b r i d Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 8 - . P A C I F I C O R P ~I ~ ~ II : z ~ ~ .. 0 : z o ' ;" o ;'"c;I - ;~ i ~. : . . ~ Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s Lo w M a r k e t Us e d t h e C o m m o d i t y C o m p e t i t i o n ( C C ) f o r e c a s t f o r 1 0 y e a r s ( 2 0 0 4 - 20 1 3 ) - W e s t ' s c h a n g e i n r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t r a n g e s f r o m $ 2 5 m i l l i o n t o - $ - mi l l i o n a n n u a l l y w h e n c o m p a r i n g R o l l e d - in t o H y b r i d - E a s t ' s c h a n g e i n r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t r a n g e s f r o m $ - 25 m i l l i o n t o $ 1 m i l l i o n an n u a l l y w h e n c o m p a r i n g R o l l e d - in t o H y b r i d Th e N P V o f t h e r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t d e c r e a s e s $5 1 m i l l i o n . T h e W e s t d e c r e a s e s by $ 1 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d i n c r e a s e s b y $4 0 m i l l i o n u n d e r H y b r i d . . T h e E a s t de c r e a s e s b y $ 3 2 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 9 1 m i l l i o n un d e r H y b r i d Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 9 - ~~ ~ ~ I! : z : 6 ' ' " " z Q ;" " )0 ' :Z : i : I " . . . . . !' . . . . " . P A C I F I C O R P Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s Ea s t P r i c e s G r e a t e r t h a n W e s t nc r e a s e d P r i c e s i n E a s t b y $1 0 / M W h Ea s t g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , W e s t g e n e r a t i o n d e c r e a s e s Sa l e s i n c r e a s e Ov e r a l l r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t d e c r e a s e s b y $ 2 4 m i l l i o n . W e s t d e c r e a s e s by $ 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 7 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d Ea s t d e c r e a s e d b y $ 1 5 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 1 7 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d . Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s . P A C I F I C O R P - 1 0 - ~e ~ ~ II z " . 0 z O ' !I " , o ~ ~ . ~ 1 J ' 1 zs . . ~.: . . Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s We s t P r i c e s G r e a t e r t h a n E a s t In c r e a s e d P r i c e s i n W e s t b y $1 0 / MW h We s t g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , E a s t g e n e r a t i o n d e c r e a s e s Sa l e s i n c r e a s e Ov e r a l l r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t d e c r e a s e s b y $ 1 3 m i l l i o n . W e s t d e c r e a s e s by $ 5 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 2 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d Ea s t d e c r e a s e d b y $ 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 1 1 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d . Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 1 1 - :E ~ ~ i ! ' in & ! l i If z . . . ~~ - a )0 . ~ t r ' J r . P A C I F I C O R P Ri s k A n a l y s e s - S t u d y As s u m p t i o n s a n d R e s u l t s We s t P r i c e s G r e a t e r t h a n E a s t In c r e a s e d P r i c e s i n W e s t b y $1 0 / MW h We s t g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , E a s t g e n e r a t i o n d e c r e a s e s Sa l e s i n c r e a s e Ov e r a l l r e v e n u e r e q u i r e m e n t d e c r e a s e s b y $ 1 3 m i l l i o n . W e s t d e c r e a s e s by $ 5 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 2 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d Ea s t d e c r e a s e d b y $ 9 m i l l i o n u n d e r R o l l e d - in a n d $ 1 1 m i l l i o n u n d e r Hy b r i d . Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s . P A C I F I C O R P - 1 2 - ii i i .. ~ ~ ~ !I . . . o - a ~ ~ . ~~ l p' : " ; : ; ~ ~ Pe r c e n t c h a n g e i n 20 0 9 R e v e n u e R e q u i r e m e n t du e t o d i f f e r e n c e i n A l l o c a t i o n M e t h o d o l o g y Lo a d S e n s i t i v i t i e s We s t Ea s t Lo a d Lo a d Lo s s Lo s s Ca l i f o r n i a 32 0 55 0 / 0 Or e g o n 09 0 77 0 Wa s h i n g t o n 40 0 76 0 / 0 To t a l W e s t 17 0 / 0 76 0 / 0 Ut a h 05 0 / 0 42 0 / 0 Id a h o 21 % 45 0 / 0 Wy o m i n g 27 0 61 % To t a l E a s t 46 % Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 1 3 - '~ i i " 0 z b 1 ;. " o - a f; . . P A C I F I C O R P i ~ Pe r c e n t c h a n g e i n 20 0 9 R e v e n u e R e q u i r e m e n t du e t o d i f f e r e n c e i n A l l o c a t i o n M e t h o d o l o g y Ge n e r a t i o n S e n s i t i v i t i e s Po o r Hi g h Hy d r o Hy d r o Ea s t an d H i g h an d L o w Ge n e r a t i o n Mi d Mi d Lo s s a n d H i g h Pr i c e s Pr i c e s Mi d P r i c e s Ca l i f o r n i a 03 0 83 % 14 0 / 0 Or e g o n 43 0 / 0 14 0 / 0 33 % Wa s h i n g t o n 44 0 14 0 33 To t a l W e s t 1 . 41 % 12 % 26 % Ut a h 84 0 66 0 50 0 / 0 Id a h o 89 0 / 0 72 0 76 0 Wy o m i n g 94 0 75 0 92 0 To t a l E a s t -0 . 86 % 69 % 60 % Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 1 4 - fi ~ 1 .. ~ z Q ;" o )0 . . P A C I F I C O R P i ~ Pe r c e n t c h a n g e i n 20 0 9 R e v e n u e R e q u i r e m e n t du e t o d i f f e r e n c e i n A l l o c a t i o n M e t h o d o l o g y Ma r k e t P r i c e Se n s i t i v i t i e s Hi g h M i d Lo w M i d We s t P r i c e s Ea s t P r i c e s Pr i c e s Pr i c e s Hi g h e r t h a n Hi g h e r t h a n Sy s t e m w i d e Sy s t e m w i d e Ea s t We s t Ca l i f o r n i a 34 0 / 0 74 % 11 % 06 0 / 0 Or e g o n 47 0 / 0 1 . 02 % 15 0 / 0 09 0 / 0 Wa s h i n g t o n 47 0 01 % 16 % 09 0 / 0 To t a l W e s t -0 . 46 0 / 0 1 . 00 % 15 % 09 0 / 0 Ut a h 27 0 / 0 58 0 / 0 09 0 / 0 05 0 / 0 Id a h o 31 % -0 . 65 0 09 0 / 0 06 0 / 0 Wy o m i n g 33 0 / 0 69 0 / 0 09 0 08 0 / 0 To t a l E a s t 28 % -0 . 61 % -0 . 09 0 / 0 -0 . 05 % Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 1 5 - (I i i ~~ g . . , . - a . P A C I F I C O R P ~ ~ Ch a n g e i n 20 0 9 D o l l a r p e r MW h Lo a d S e n s i t i v i t i e s Al l o c a t i o n M e t h o d We s t L o a d L o s s Ea s t L o a d L o s s To t a l C o m p a n y 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 47 . 4 - H y b r i d Ca l i f o r n i a 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 0. 4 1 47 . 4 - H y b r i d Or e g o n 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 4. 4 8 47 . 4 - H y b r i d Wa s h i n g t o n 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 0. 4 0 47 . 4 - H y b r i d To t a l W e s t 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 3. 4 0 47 . 4 - H y b r i d Ut a h 1. 4 . D y n a m i c 47 . 4 - H y b r i d 0. 4 1 Id a h o 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 10 . 47 . 4 . H y b r i d 10 . Wy o m i n g 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 47 . 4 - H y b r i d 1. 4 7 To t a l E a s t 1. 4 - D y n a m i c 47 . 4 - H y b r i d 0. 4 0 Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 1 6 - . P A C I F I C O R P ~I ~ ~ II z i i f . ~ .. 0 z ' , . ;" o- a ;'" ~ r p l zs . . ~. : . . ; ; i ~ Ch a n g e i n 20 0 9 D o l l a r p e r MW h Ge n e r a t i o n S e n s i t i v i t i e s Po o r H y d r o Hi g h H y d r o Ea s t G e n e r a t i o n an d H i g h M i d an d L o w M i d Lo s s a n d H i g h We s t R e s o u r c e Al l o c a t i o n M e t h o d Pr i c e s Pr i c e s Mi d P r i c e s Se n s i t i v i t y To t a l C o m p a n y 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) Ca l i f o r n i a 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (1 . 29 ) (2 . 02 ) (0 . 00 ) Or e g o n 1 . 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (1 . 29 ) (2 . 02 ) (0 . 00 ) Wa s h i n g t o n 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (1 . 29 ) (2 . 02 ) (0 . 00 ) To t a l W e s t 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (1 . 29 ) (2 . 02 ) (0 . 00 ) Ut a h 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 01 ) (0 . 00 ) Id a h o 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 6 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 00 ) (0 . 00 ) Wy o m i n g 1 . 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 5 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 00 ) (0 . 00 ) To t a l E a s t 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 4 7 ) (0 . 00 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 01 ) (0 . 00 ) Mu l t i - St a t e Pr o c e s s - 1 7 - . P A C F I Co R P ~i ! ' iI ! E 6 ' : ; ~~ z & ' ... o- a ;'" ~ r n : : ! ' zs ' l l p': " : : ; ~ ~ Ch a n g e i n 20 0 9 D o l l a r p e r MW h Ma r k e t P r i c e Se n s i t i v i t i e s Hi g h M i d P r i c e s Lo w M i d P r i c e s We s t P r i c e s Ea s t P r i c e s Al l o c a t i o n M e t h o d Sy s t e m w i d e Sy s t e m w i d e Hi g h e r t h a n E a s t Hi g h e r t h a n W e s t To t a l C o m p a n y 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 05 ) (0 . 24 ) (0 . 4 4 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 05 ) (0 . 24 ) (0 . 4 4 ) Ca l i f o r n i a 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 04 ) (0 . 23 ) (0 . 4 3 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 38 ) (0 . 12 ) (0 . 37 ) Or e g o n 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 04 ) (0 . 23 ) (0 . 4 3 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 38 ) (0 . 13 ) (0 . 37 ) Wa s h i n g t o n 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 04 ) (0 . 23 ) (0 . 4 3 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 38 ) (0 . 12 ) (0 . 37 ) To t a l W e s t 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 04 ) (0 . 23 ) (0 . 4 3 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 38 ) (0 . 13 ) (0 . 37 ) Ut a h 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 04 ) (0 . 23 ) (0 . 4 3 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 27 ) (0 . 30 ) (0 . 4 6 ) Id a h o 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 07 ) (0 . 25 ) (0 . 4 4 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 25 ) (0 . 30 ) (0 . 4 8 ) Wy o m i n g 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 08 ) (0 . 25 ) (0 . 4 5 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 24 ) (0 . 30 ) (0 . 4 9 ) To t a l E a s t 1. 4 - D y n a m i c (0 . 05 ) (0 . 24 ) (0 . 4 4 ) 47 . 4 - H y b r i d (0 . 26 ) (0 . 30 ) (0 . 4 7 ) Mu l t i - St a t e P r o c e s s - 1 8 - . P A C I F I C O R P ~" ~ ~ I! I i i 8 ' 8 i .. ~ z b ' !I ; " ' o ~ ~ : o . ~~ l ~. : . . ; ; ~ ~ 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 Re t a i l L o a d G r o w t h Fi r m & N o n - Fi r m (M W ) Su m o f 1 2 C P ' PP L . PP L - PP L - PP L . UP L - UP L - UP L - ME R G E D TO T A L 27 5 25 , 4 7 2 58 6 99 6 64 1 91 1 24 , 4 6 7 77 , 34 8 38 2 26 , 35 7 63 5 11 , 06 2 86 0 96 4 24 , 94 4 79 , 20 3 65 4 10 9 71 9 01 0 88 1 88 9 26 , 18 7 45 0 80 1 26 , 73 3 65 9 06 8 88 9 89 7 26 , 87 8 80 , 92 5 22 2 27 , 10 4 71 6 59 6 15 9 74 5 29 , 55 3 85 , 09 8 50 4 26 , 57 2 74 3 00 5 06 3 36 9 30 , 61 5 82 , 87 1 09 9 27 , 73 3 81 5 97 7 11 2 79 1 31 , 93 6 86 , 4 6 3 29 5 26 , 90 3 02 9 11 8 19 7 74 8 32 , 27 3 85 , 56 3 13 5 27 , 67 9 71 9 56 7 14 6 76 0 78 6 88 , 79 1 77 8 26 , 75 4 53 9 10 , 55 1 10 8 97 8 35 , 07 1 88 , 78 0 97 3 26 , 39 7 68 5 10 , 59 3 57 2 56 4 35 , 95 1 89 , 73 5 % I n c r e a s e f r o m 1 9 9 2 PP L - PP L - PP L - PP L - UP L - UP L - UP L . ME R G E D TO T A L 2. 4 % 6. 4 % 8. 4 % 34 . 13 . 6. 4 % 11 . -4 0 . 20 . 10 . 53 . 25 . 11 . 14 . 10 . 38 . 30 . 11 . 14 . 27 . 17 . 12 . 39 . 31 . 11 . 8. 4 % 13 . 10 . 39 . 42 . 14 . -4 . 10 . 32 . 43 . 14 . 20 . -4 6 . 46 . 16 . rR ~ ~ .. ~ ~ ~ ;" )0 , ;~ l ~.: . . 0 - ~ ~ 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 Re t a i l L o a d G r o w t h Fi r m & N o n - Fi r m (M W h ) En e r g y PP L - PP L - PP L . PP L - UP L - UP L . UP L . ME R G E D TO T A L 99 1 , 96 7 13 , 82 5 , 75 5 85 6 , 54 8 34 0 , 4 2 7 19 4 96 3 08 0 , 59 3 31 3 , 54 8 44 , 60 3 , 80 1 13 2 , 02 8 56 5 , 78 3 88 8 , 53 8 37 9 , 90 3 05 4 , 51 2 13 2 , 39 8 88 3 , 13 2 03 6 , 29 4 17 6 , 15 7 15 , 23 0 , 29 1 90 7 , 74 3 37 6 21 1 26 9 , 34 1 07 5 , 08 3 15 , 74 3 , 62 2 48 , 77 8 , 4 4 8 13 5 , 08 5 14 , 52 3 , 34 3 88 7 65 1 36 4 , 74 9 13 1 , 88 1 36 2 , 4 7 4 17 1 16 4 57 6 , 34 7 32 4 , 98 8 14 , 92 2 , 35 3 91 5 , 4 2 0 60 0 77 3 35 0 , 25 0 20 8 , 65 7 47 6 , 33 7 49 , 79 8 , 77 8 04 9 , 96 6 14 , 81 5 , 98 3 94 9 , 11 1 55 8 , 86 2 31 9 , 4 8 1 93 9 , 05 1 17 , 87 4 , 55 4 48 , 50 7 , 00 8 45 7 , 4 2 2 15 , 45 6 , 78 3 97 9 , 78 9 65 3 37 7 30 3 , 81 9 22 0 , 88 1 18 , 38 7 , 05 5 50 , 45 9 , 12 7 60 7 , 91 9 15 , 22 4 , 11 9 15 5 , 84 5 19 0 , 29 9 32 8 , 39 7 18 8 , 29 3 18 , 94 6 , 80 5 50 , 64 1 , 67 7 54 0 , 4 9 8 15 , 60 3 , 61 2 92 5 , 78 6 34 5 , 97 4 41 9 , 26 3 22 5 , 41 0 20 , 28 4 , 78 1 52 , 34 5 . 32 5 4, 4 1 3 , 51 8 15 , 02 5 , 36 0 86 5 , 65 2 08 3 , 75 1 3, 4 0 6 , 87 0 36 6 , 79 9 20 , 07 0 , 97 5 23 2 , 92 5 38 4 , 92 9 14 , 31 2 83 5 91 1 , 55 7 94 0 , 26 9 55 2 , 4 1 8 07 5 , 68 6 36 9 , 29 4 51 , 54 6 , 98 9 % C h a n g e F r o m 1 9 9 2 PP L - PP L - PP L . PP L . UP L - UP L - UP L - ME R G E D TO T A L 5. 4 % -4 . 4 % 11 . 10 . 18 . 9. 4 % 34 . 21 . -4 1 . 31 . 11 . 10 . 10 . 54 . 34 . 11 . 11 . 14 . 9. 4 % 3. 4 % -4 1 . 38 . 13 . 15 . 4 % 10 . 34 . 15 . -4 2 . 42 . 6. 4 % 13 . 12 . 13 . -4 1 . 52 . 4 % 10 . 10 . 34 . 50 . 6. 4 % 11 . -4 8 . 53 . fn ~ ~ .. ~ ~ ~ ;, , " - a ;1 0 c;' J . -.I z~ . . , . N In c r e a s e i n G e n e r a t i o n R e v e n u e R e q u i r e m e n t $/ M W h C h a n g e F r o m 2 0 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 1 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 6 20 1 8 We s t R e g i o n SI M W h . C h a n g e f r o m 2 0 0 4 Hy b r i d 1. 7 8 $ 1 1 . 12 . $ 1 4 . $ 1 6 . 18 , $ 1 7 . $ 1 8 . $ 1 8 . $ 1 7 , $ 1 8 , $ 1 8 . Ro l l e d - $ 1 1 . $ 1 2 . $ 1 3 . $ 1 5 . $ 1 6 . $ 1 6 . $ 1 6 . $ 1 6 . $ 1 7 . $ 1 7 . Ea s t R e g i o n SI M W h . C h a n g e f r o m 2 0 0 4 Hy b r i d Ro l l e d - $ 0 , 92 $ 3 . 12 $ 5 . 36 $ 7 . 26 $ 1 0 . 64 $ 1 1 . 94 $ 1 1 . 61 $ 1 3 . 95 $ 1 6 , 01 $ 1 5 . 99 $ 1 5 . 86 $ 16 . 4 9 $ 1 7 . 04 $ 1 7 , $ 1 . 25 $ 4 . 13 $ 7 . 20 $ 9 . 07 $ 1 1 . 52 $ 1 3 . 19 $ 1 3 , 68 $ 1 5 . 93 $ 1 7 . 12 $ 1 7 . 24 $ 1 7 . 05 $ 17 . 4 7 $ 1 8 . 01 $ 1 8 , r~ ! ~ , o - a ,~ . . I': " EA S T Ne e d f o r N e w R e s o u r c e s b y R e g i o n Ch a n g e i n L o a d a n d N e t R e s o u r c e s f r o m 2 0 0 4 FY 2 0 0 4 FY 2 0 1 8 Gw h Gw h 32 , 67 1 49 , 52 4 12 5 60 0 72 1 74 4 33 , 91 1 94 5 Ne t S y s t e m L o a d Lo n g T e r m S a l e s Ex i s t i n g L o n g T e r m P u r c h a s e s Ex i s t i n g P l a n t G e n e r a t i o n Ne t I n c r e a s e i n R e s o u r c e s Ch a n g e i n L o a d f r o m 2 0 0 4 L e s s C h a n g e i n N e t R e s o u r c e s Pe r c e n t o f 2 0 1 8 l o a d WE S T Ne t S y s t e m L o a d Lo n g T e r m S a l e s Ex i s t i n g L o n g T e r m P u r c h a s e s Ex i s t i n g P l a n t G e n e r a t i o n Ne t I n c r e a s e i n R e s o u r c e s Ch a n g e i n L o a d f r o m 2 0 0 4 L e s s C h a n g e i n N e t R e s o u r c e s Pe r c e n t o f 2 0 1 8 l o a d 17 7 24 , 93 9 25 8 72 2 13 , 30 9 39 5 71 2 13 , 82 8 Ch a n g e f r o m 2 0 0 4 Gw h 16 , 85 3 (2 , 52 5 ) (9 7 7 ) 96 6 ) (4 1 8 ) 17 , 27 1 34 . 76 2 (3 . 86 3 ) 01 0 ) 51 9 62 8 ) 39 0 29 . :E G ~ i ! ' i' I t e r 5 i ~~ ~ b ' !I . . . o - a ~ ~ ; " l' : " Ch a n g e i n G e n e r a t i o n b y R e g i o n We s t L o a d L o s s (2 5 0 M W ) FY 2 0 0 9 Ch a n g e i n G e n e r a t i o n TH E R M A L G E N E R A T I O N TO T A L C H A N G E MW h Ea s t We s t 36 2 33 0 10 0 % Ea s t L o a d L o s s ( 2 5 0 MW ) FY 2 0 0 9 Ch a n g e i n G e n e r a t i o n TH E R M A L G E N E R A T I O N TO T A L C H A N G E MW h 31 7 , 29 6 23 % Ea s t (1 , 04 5 , 03 4 ) 77 % We s t (1 , 4 1 5 , 88 5 ) 10 0 % 65 8 , 05 2 46 % 75 7 , 83 3 54 % 'I i i .. ~ z g !I . . . o - a ~ f ; : " ~~ ( ) ~.: . . SEASONAL WHOLESALE CONTRACTS PacifiCorp Exhibit No, 11 Case No, PAC-E-02- Witness: Gregory N, Duvall Existing 1, A vista Summer Purchase Term: Starts 3/18/1994 and Terminates September 15, 2003Size: 150 Megawatts Delivery Months: June through September Delivery Hours: Heavy Load Hours (6 AM - 10 PM) Monday through SaturdayFeatures: Monthly load factor, Minimum of 10% and Maximum of70% Annual Load Factor, 25%Pricing: Contractual Specified Capacity and Energy charge Point of Receipt: Hot Springs, MT 2. Morgan Stanley Call Term: Starts 6/1/2002 and Terminates September 30, 2004Size: 100 Megawatts Delivery Months: June through September Delivery Hours: Heavy Load Hours (6 AM - 10 PM) Monday through SaturdayFeatures: Call exercised dailyPricing: Contractual Specified Capacity and Energy charge Point of Receipt: Mona, UT 3. Sempra Call Term: Starts 6/1/2002 and Terminates September 30, 2004Size: 100 Megawatts Delivery Months: June through September Delivery Hours: Heavy Load Hours (6 AM - 10 PM) Monday through SaturdayFeatures: Call exercised daily Pricing: DSW market price for energy plus capacity price based on Malin Gas Index Point of Receipt: Utah / Nevada Border (Red Butte - Harry Allen 345 kV Line) Planned 4. IRP Super Peak Contract East Term: Starts 6/1/2003 and Terminates 9/1/2006Size: 225 Megawatts Delivery Months: June through August Delivery Hours: Super peak period (12 PM - 8 PM) Monday through SaturdayFeatures: Call OptionPricing: Fixed price expressed in dollars per Mwh Point of Receipt: East Main