20170411Volume I & II IRP Amendment.pdf

Y ROCKY MOUNTAIN
POWER . ,..1 .r I t 'i, t^. a1:.;..,, 11 i.,tr:_u
1407 North Temple, Suite 310
Salt Lake City, Utah 8a116
April I1,2017
VA OVERNIGHT DELII/ERY
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472West Washington
Boise,lD 83702
Attention: Diane Hanian
Commission Secretary
RE: PAC-E-17-03 - PACIFICORP'S APPLICATION FOR ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
OF THE 2OlT INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAI\
Dear Ms. Hanian:
Please find enclosed a copy of the data discs containing non-confidential and confidential work
papers for the 2017 IRP. In an effort to improve transparency PacifiCorp is supplementing its
IRP filing with these discs to support and provide additional details for the analysis described
within the2017IRP. Confidential information inthe20lT IRP will be provided to any party who
has signed a non-disclosure agreement in this Case. PacifiCorp requests that interested parties
contact the state manager at the number listed below for a copy of the non-disclosure agreement
that must be executed and submitted prior to obtaining a copy of the confidential information.
The Company also identified clarifuing changes and one value correction in the 2017 tRP, Volume
II - Appendices. Enclosed as a supplement to the 2017 tRP is an original and seven (7) copies of
the updated pages summarized in the table below. Note these changes do not affect the preferred
portfolio selection or outcome of the 2017 IRP. The Company has also revised Volume II of the
2017 IRP available online at www.pacificom.com/irp to reflect the updated pages.
PaciliCorp 2017 IRP Volume II
Reference Update Page
Appendix D Replaced Table D.2 (outreach and communication activities)66
Appendix H Clarified volatility formula and description 144
Appendix K
Corrected RE-lc PVRR in Table K.2 179
Corrected labels in Table K4 (label "FS-lc" corrected to "FS-
Rlc"; label UFS-2, corrected to "FS-R2")180
Added missing portfolio FS-R2 224
Appendix L Replaced Table L.4 (was a duplicate of Table L.l)227
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
April I1,2017
Page2
PacifiCorp 2017 IRP Volume II
Reference Update Page
Appendix M
Corrected PVRR value in Quick Reference Guide for RE-lc 264
Corrected Case Fact Sheet PVRR value for RE-lc 284
Replaced CO2 emissions chart with CO2 price chart for CO2
sensitivity 298
Labeled blank line in Portfolio Summary Table with "Gateway
Transmission" for GWI and GW3 301 & 303
Appendix N
Replaced "error not found" in text to reference Table N.1 313
Replaced Table N.l (removed extra decimal place for 2017 IRP
single-axis tracking result)316
Informal inquiries may be directed to Ted Weston, Idaho Regulatory Manager, at [phone]
Sincerely,
J K. Larsen
Vice President, Regulation
Enclosures
cc Jim Yost, Idaho Govemor's Offrce (without enclosures)
Benjamin Otto, Idaho Conservation League (without enclosures)
Mark Stokes, Idaho Power Company (without enclosures)
Terri Carlock,Idaho Public Utilities Commission staff
Maff Elam,Idaho Public Utilities Commission staff
Mike Louis, ldaho Public Utilities Commission staff
Randall Budge, (Monsanto) (without enclosures)
Nancy Kelly, Western Resource Advocates (without enclosures)
Dina Dubson Kelly, Renewable Northwest (without enclosures)
PACIFICORP_20I7IRP APPENDIX D _ DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT RESOURCES
currently subject to seasonal or year-round inverted block rate plans. Savings associated with these
resources are captured within the Company's load forecast and are thus captured in the integrated
resource planning framework. PacifiCorp continues to evaluate Class 3 DSM programs for
applicability to long-terrn resource planning.
Educating customers regarding energy efficiency and load management opportunities is an
important component of the Company's long-term resource acquisition plan. A variety of channels
are used to educate customers including television, radio, newspapers, bill inserts and messages,
newsletters, school education programs, and personal contact. Load reductions due to Class 4 DSM
activity will show up in Class 1 and Class 2 DSM program results and non-program reductions in
the load forecast over time. Table D.2 provides an overview of DSM related wattsmaft Outreach
and Communication activities (Class 4 DSM activities) by state.
Table D.2 - Current wattsmart Outreach and Communications Activities
Advertising
Sponsonhips
Social Media
Public Relations
Business Advocacy (awards at custonrr nretings,
sponsorships, chanter partnenh[, univenity partnership)
Wattsnurt Wor*shops
Bewattsnnrt, Begin at HorE - in school energy education
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PACTICORP_2017IRP APPENDX H- STOCHASTIC PARAMETERS
Long-term planning demands specification of how important variables behave over time. For the
case of PacifiCorp's long-term planning, important variables include natural gas and electricity
prices, regional loads, and regional hydro generation. Modeling these variables involves not only
a description of their expected value over time as with a traditional forecast, but also a
description of the spread of possible future values. The following sections summarize the
development of stochastic process parameters to describe how these uncertain variables evolve
over time2.
The standard deviation3(o) is a measure of how widely values are dispersed from the average
value:
(xi - tt)'
(n-1)
Volatility incorporates a time component so a variable with constant volatility has a larger spread
of possible outcomes two years in the future than one year in the future (o7):
or=ofr
Volatilities are typically quoted on an annual basis but can be specified for any desired time
period (T). Suppose the annual volatility of load is two percent. This implies that the standard
deviation of the range of possible loads a year from now is two percent, while the standard
deviation four years from now is four percent.
If volatility were constant over the forecast period, then the standard deviation would increase
linearly with the square root of time. This is described as a "Random Walk" process and often
provides a reasonable assumption for long-term uncertainty. However, for energy commodities
as well as many other variables in the short-term, this is not tpically the case. Excepting
seasonal effects, the standard deviation increases less quickly with longer forecast time. This is
called a mean reverting process - variable outcomes tend to revert back towards a long-term
mean after experiencing a shock:
2 A stochastic or random process is the counterpart to a deterministic process. Instead ofdealing with only one
possible reality of how the variables might evolve over time, there is some indeterminacy in the future evolution
described by probability distributions.
3 'standard Deviation" and "Variance" are standard statistical terms describing the spread of possible outcomes. The
Variance equals the Standard Deviation squared.
o
144
PACFICORP_ 2017 IRP APPENDX K - DETAtr, CAPACITY EXPANSION RESULTS
AppBNDrx K - CepeclTy ExpeNsIoN Rpstnrs Dprelr
This section provides the System Optimizer portfolio build tables for each of the case scenarios as described in the portfolio
development section of Chapter 7. There axe seven Regional Haze cases, eleven core cases, twenty sensitivity cases, and
four final cases.
Table K.l-Haze Reference Guide
Table lL2 - Core Case Reference Guide
Ref Reference Case Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2032 $24219
RH.I Regional Haze I Base Base Mass Cap B Bas€None 2030 $23,1s9
$23A82RH-2 Regional Haze 2 Base Base Mass CapB Base None 2029
Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,398RH-3 Regional Haze 3
Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2030 s21,663RH-4 Regional Haze 4
RH.5 Regional Haze 5 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 s23,177
RH.6 Reeional Haze 6 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2028 $23,986
oP-1 RH5 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,r7',1Optimized Portfolio
OP.NT3 oP-l Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,0s2Optimized Naughton 3
OP.REP Wind Repower OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $22,984
$23,123oP-GW4 Energy Gateway +
Reoower OP-REP Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segrnent
D2 2029
OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 202r $23,585FR.1 Flexible Resource
FR-2 OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2021 $24,319Flexible Resource
RE-la ORRPS Just in Time OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,082
RE.Ib WARPS JustinTime OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,091
RE-lc OR&WARPS Just in
Time OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,1 r0
RE-2 OR RPS Early OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,098
Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2030 $23,103DLCIDirect Load Control OP.NT3
t79
PACIFICORP-2OI7IRP APPENDX K _ DETAI. CAPACITY EXPANSION RESULTS
Table K.3 -Case Reference Guide
Table K.4 - Final Case Reference Guide
Base Mass Cap B , Base None 2029 $23,404R[I2a Regional Haze oP-l Base
I in20 Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23.364LD-I I in 20 loads oP-l
LD.2 oP-l Low Base Mass Cap B Base None 2030 $21,s67LowLoad
LD.3 High Load oP-l Hich Bas€Mass Cap B Base None 2028 $24,8 1 8
Low $23,304PG-I LowPrivate Gen oP-1 Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029
Base Hish Mass Cap B Base None 2030 $22,899PG.2 High Private Gen oP-1
CPP-C CPP Mass Cap C oP-1 Base Base Mass Cap C Base None 2029 $23268
CPP-D CPP Mass Cap D oP-1 Base Base Mass Cap D Base None 2029 $23,102
FOT-I Limited FOT oP-l Base Base Mass Cap B Resticted None 2029 $23,347
co2-l COz Price oP-1 Base Base Tor, No CPP Base None 2010 $26,401
NO-CO2 OP.NT3 Base Base No Tax, No CPP Base None 2028 $22,891No COz
BP Business Plan OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap D Base None 2030 $23,198
GWI Gateway 1 OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D 2029 $23,s93
GW2 Gateway 2 OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segrnent F 2029 $24,054
Base Base Mass Cap B Base Sesnent D&F 2029 $24,627GW3Gateway 3 OP.NT3
GW4 OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D2 2029 $23,159Gateway 4
Battery Battery Storage FS.GW4 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D2 2029 $23,162
CAES CAES Storage FS.GW4 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D2 2029 $23,121
wcA WCA FS.REP Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 3033 $7,542
Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 3033 $7,ss7WCA.RPS WCARPS FS-REP
FS.REP OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D2 2029 s21,042Wind Repower
FS.GW4 FS-REP Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segrnent D2 2029 $n,990Gateway 4
FS-Rlc OR& WARPS Just in Time FS-GW4 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D2 2029 $23,006
FS.R2 FS-GW4 Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment D2 2029 $22,995OR RPS Early
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PACIFICORP - 20I7 IRP APPENDIX L - STOCHASTIC SIMULATION RESULTS
Table L.4 - Stochastic Mean PVRR by Price Scenario, Final Screening Cases
Table L.5 - Stochastic Risk Results, Regional Haze Cases - Low Gas, MC A
Table L.6 - Stochastic Risk Results, Regional Haze Cases - Medium Gas, MC A
PVRR($m)Low Gas,
MCA
Med Gas,
MCA
High Gas,
MCA
Low Gas,
MCB
Med Gas,
MCB
Iligh Gas,
MCB
FS-REP 22,74t 23,372 25,616 22,705 23,353 25,629
FS-GW4 22,821 23,355 25,t41 22,785 23,331 25,151
FS-R1c 22,848 23,36s 25,095 22,813 23,342 25,109
FS-R2 22,821 23,348 25,098 22,787 23,324 25,109
PYRR($m)
Low Gas, MC A
Standard
Deviation Sth percentile 90th percentile 95th percentile
Upper TaiI
(mean of 3 Highest)
No Fixed Costs
Ret 123 23,818 24,097 24,272 15,464
RH-I 118 22,688 22,959 23,134 15,584
RH-2 128 22,771 23,052 )7 ))\15,638
RH-3 119 22,809 23,107 23,244 15,646
RH.4 121 23,199 23,467 23,629 15,598
RH-5 119 22,614 22,882 23,051 1 5,68 1
RH-6 123 23,460 23,738 23,902 t5,659
PVRR($m)
Medium Ges, MC A
Standard
Deviation 5th percentile 90th percentile 95th percentile
Upper Tail
(mean of 3 Highest)
No Fixed Costs
Ref,138 24,375 24,682 24,869 16,086
RH.I 134 23,282 23,606 23,770 16,246
RH.2 145 23,482 23,804 23,987 16,421
RH-3 135 23,444 23,75t )1 0))16,335
RH-4 136 23,784 24,086 24,262 16,253
RH-5 136 23,272 23,596 23,758 16,412
RH-6 140 24,119 24,425 24,605 16,386
227
Case Fact Sheets - Overview
Resional Haze Case Fact Sheets
The following Regional Haze Case Fact Sheets summarize key assumptions and portfolio results for each
portfolio being developed for the 2017 IRP. All cases produce resource potfolios capable of meeting state
renewable portfolio standard requirements. Similarly, in addition to the Regional Haze compliance requirements
specified for each case, all cases include costs to meet known and assumed compliance obligations for Mercury
and Air Toxics (MATS), coal combustion residuals (CCR) under subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act @CRA), cooling water intake structures under 53160) of the Clean Water Act, and effluent
guidelines.
Ouich Reference Guide
Core Case Fact Sheets
The following Core Case Fact Sheets summarize key assumptions and portfolio results for each portfolio being
developed for the 2017 IRP. All cases produce resource portfolios capable of meeting state renewable portfolio
standard requirements. As with the regionallnze cases, all core cases comply with the environmental
obligations.
Ouick Reference Guide
Sensitivitv Fact Sheets
The following Sensitivity Fact Sheets summarize key assumptions and portfolio results for each sensitivity
being developed for the 2017 IRP. All sensitivities produce resource portfolios capable of meeting state
-264-Case Overview
Base Base $24219Ref.Reference Case Mass Cap B Base None 2032 $24,1s6
RH-I Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2030 $23,066 $23,1s9Regional Haze I
RH-2 Reeional Haze 2 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,313 $23A82
Base Base Mass Cap B $23.398RH-3 Regional tlaze 3 Base None 2029 $23,315
RH-4 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2030 $23,582 $23563Regional Haze 4
RH.5 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23,081 I23,177Regional Haze 5
RH-6 Regional Haze 6 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2028 $23,89r $23,986
Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $23.177oP-l Optimized Portfolio RH5 $23,08 l
OP.NT3 oP-l Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 s22,9t3 $239s2Optimized Naughton 3
OP-REP Wind Repower OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $22,890 $22,984
oP-GW4 Energy Gateway +
Reoower OP-REP Base Base Mass Cap B Base Segment
D2 2029 $22,612 $23,123
Base Base Mass Cap B $23.585FR.I Flexible Resource OP-NT3 Base None 202t $23,463
FR.2 OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 202t $24,136 $24,319Flexible Resource
RE-la ORRPS JustinTime OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $22,94s $23,082
RE-Ib rffA RPS Just in Time OP.NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $22,962 $23,091
RE-lc OR& WARPS Just in
Time OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $22,972 $23,r r0
Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2029 $22,967 $23,098RE.2 OR RPS Early OP-NT3
Drc.I Direct load Control OP-NT3 Base Base Mass Cap B Base None 2030 $22,942 $23,103
Case: OR & WA RPS Just in Time (RE-lc)
Clsn
Descriotion
Case RE-lc retains endogenous renewables from core case I
(OP-l) and includes additional renewables added to physically
comply with Oregon and Washington RPS. Additions are made
beginning the first year in which there is a projected compliance
shorrfall (iust-in-time compliance). This case is a variant of core
case OP-NT3.
Ponrror,Io SUMMARY
Resource Portfolio
Cumulative changes to the resource portfolio (new resource
additions and resource retirements), represented as nameplate
capaclty, are summarized in the figure below.
System Cost without Transmission Upgrades $22,972
Transmission Integration $126
Transmission Reinforcement $12
Total Cost $23,1 l0
Cumulative Nameplate Capacity
r-qaid6$h€r€60iN6=h9
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Gas Convesion , Other
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-284 -Core Case: OR & WA RPS Just in Time 1RE-lc)
Sensitivity: COz Price, No CPP (CO2-1)
C.q.sr Assulvrprroxs
Descfiotion
The COz Price sensitivity_examines the impact of replacing the
Clean Power Plan (cunently stayed by the U.S. Supreme
Court) with an COz proxy price beginning inthe year 2025,
based on the assumption that even if the CPP is not in eflect,
there will be some carbon-based policy in place by this time.
CO2 prices applied to each ton of COz emissions from new
and existing resources, beginning in2025 at $4.75lton and
reaching $38.02lton by 2036. This sensitivity is a variant of
core case OP-1.
COz Emission Price
COz emission prices beginningin2D25 used in the COz Price
sensitivity are shown in the figure below.
Ponrror,ro SUMMARY
Resource Poilfolio
Cumulative changes to the resource portfolio (new resource
additions and resource retirements), represented as nameplate
capacity, are summarized in the figure below.
Nominal CO2 Price
r66O:dothgr€6OiNo+hgH-*NNNNNdNddN6oooo6o
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System Cost without Transmission Upsrades $26.222
Transmission Inteeration $166
Transmission Reinforcement $12
$26.401Total Cost
Cumulrtive Nrmephte Crprcity
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-298 -Sensitivity: CO2 Price, No CPP (CO2-l)
Sensitivity: Energy Gateway 1 (GWl)
Transmission
Transmission path is shown in the map below
Clsn Assuvrprroxs
Descriotion
Sensitivity GWI includes segment D - Windstar to Anticline
(assumed in-service 2022). h addition to the 300 MW of
Wyoming wind in case OP-NT3, the additional transmission
enables 440 MW of Wyoming wind additions. This
sensitivity is a variant of core case OP-NT3.
Ponrror,ro SUMMARY
Resource Portfolio
Cumulative changes to the resource portfolio (new resource
additions and resource retirements), represented as nameplate
capaclty, are summarized in the figure below.
System Cost without Transmission Upsrades $22,803
$ 125Transmission Integration
$12Transmission Reinforcement
$6s2Gateway Transmission
$23.593Total Cost
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Cumulative Nameplate Capacity
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-301-Sensitivity: Energy Gateway I (GWl)
Sensitivity: Energy Gateway 3 (GW3)
Transmission
Transmission path is shown in the map below
Clsr AssumrrroNs
Descriotion
Sensitivity GW3 includes segments D & F - Windstar to
Anticline and Aeolus to Mona/Clover (assumed in-service
2022 and 2023, respectively). In addition to the 300 MW of
Wyoming wind in case OP-NT3, the additional transmission
enables 1,200 MW of Wyoming wind additions. This
sensitivity is a variant of core case OP-NT3.
Ponrror.ro Suuulny
Resource Pofifolto
Cumulative changes to the resource portfolio (new resource
additions and resource retirements), represented as nameplate
capacity, are summarized in the figure below.
.^&lrti,
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$22.706Svstem Cost without Transmission Upgrades
$96Transmission Inteeration
$12Transmission Reinforcement
$ 1.8 13Gatewav Transmission
$24.627Total Cost
Cumulrtive Nrmeplate Crpicity
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PACFICORP_20I7IRP APPENDX N - WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY CoNTRtsUnON STI.]DY
ApppNDIx N _ Wmp AND SOrAn CEpECITY
CoNrnrBUTroN Sruov
The capacity contribution ofwind and solar resources, represented as a percentage of resource
capacity, is a measure of the ability for these resources to reliably meet demand. For purposes of
this report, PacifiCorp defines the peak capacity contribution of wind and solar resources as the
availability among hours with the highest loss of load probability (LOLP). PacifiCorp calculated
peak capacity contribution values for wind and solar resources using the capacity factor
approximation method (CF Method) as outlined in a 2012 report produced by the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL Report)1.
The capacity contribution of wind and solar resources affects PacifiCorp's resource planning
activities. PacifiCorp conducts its resource planning to ensure there is sufficient capacity on its
system to meet its load obligation at the time of system coincident peak inclusive of a planning
reserve margin. To ensure resource adequacy is maintained over time, all resource portfolios
evaluated in the integrated resource plan (IRP) have sufficient capacity to meet PacifiCorp's net
coincident peak load obligation inclusive of a planning reserve margin throughout a Z0-year
planning horizon. Consequently, planning for the coincident peak drives the amount and timing of
new resources, while resource cost and performance metrics among a wide range of different
resource alternatives drive the types of resources that can be chosen to minimize portfolio costs
and risks.
PacifiCorp derives its planning reserve margin from a LOLP study. The study evaluates the
relationship between reliability across all hours in a given year, accounting for variability and
uncertainty in load and generation resources, and the cost of planning for system resources at
varying levels of planning reserve margin. In this way, PacifiCorp's planning reserve margin
LOLP study is the mechanism used to transform hourly reliability metrics into a resource adequacy
target at the time of system coincident peak. This same LOLP study was utilized for calculating
the peak capacity contribution using the CF Method. Table N.l, summarizes the peak capacity
contribution results for PacifiCorp's East and West balancing authority areas (BAAs).
The CF Method ignores transmission constraints that can prevent resource output in a location
from reaching an area location where loss of load events occur. If transmission constraints prevent
resources from reaching areas with loss of load events, additional capacity in those areas may not
provide an adequate planning reserve margin or contribute to reliability. At the January 26-27,
2017 public input meeting PacifiCorp identified the potential for transmission constraints to impact
the effective capacity contribution from resources in Wyoming Northeast, Oregon, and Utah
South.2
I Madaeni, S. H.; Sioshansi, R.; and Denholm, P. "Comparison of Capacity Value Methods for Photovoltaics in the
Western United States." NREL/TP-6A20-54704, Denver, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, July 2012
(NREL Report). http://www.nrel.gov/docs/& I 2osti/54704.pdf
2 20 I 7 IRP: Public Input Meeting 7. January 26-27 , 2017 . Presentation available at
htto://www.pacificom.com/contenUdam/Bacificom/doc/Enerey-Sources/Inteerated-Resource-Plar/2017 IRP/Pacifi
Com 2017 IRP PIM07 l-26-17-Presentation.pdf
313
PACFICORP-20I7IRP APPENDD( N - CAPACnY CoNTRIBUTIoN Sruoy
37.9o/o 59.7o/o ll.8o/o 53.9o/o 64.80/o2OIT IRP
Results 15.8o/o
32.2o/o 36.7o/o2OI5 IRP
Results 14.5%34.1o/o 39.1o/o 25.4o/o
Table N.l - Peak Capacity Contribution Values for Wind and Solar
Figure N.l presents daily average LOLP results from the PaR simulation, which shows that loss
of load events are most likely to occur during the summer when load peaks in July.
Figure N.l- Daily LOLP
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tr
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Figure N.2 presents the relationship between monthly capacity factors among wind and solar
resources (primary y-axis) and average monthly LOLP from the PaR simulation (secondary y-
axis) in PacifiCorp's CF Method analysis. As noted above, the average monthly LOLP is most
prominent in summer (July peak loads).
316