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PACIFICORP
A MIDAMERICAN ENERGY HOLDINGS COMPANY
May 28,2009 Pacific Power I Rocky Mountain Power I PacifiCorp Energy
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This 2008 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Report is based upon the best available information at
the time of preparation. The IRP action plan wil be implemented as described herein, but is sub-
ject to change as new information becomes available or as circumstances change. It is Pacifi-
Corp's intention to revisit and refresh the IRP action plan no less frequently than annually. Any
refreshedIRP action plan wil be submitted to the State Commissions for their information.
For more information, contact:
PacifiCorp
IRP Resource Planning
825 N.E. Multnomah, Suite 600
Portland, Oregon 97232
(503) 813-5245
IRP(fPacifiCorp.com
http://www.PacifiCorp.com
This report is printed on recycled paper
Cover Photos (Left to Right):
Wind: Foot Creek 1
Hydroelectric Generation: Yale Reservoir (Washington)
Demand side management: Agricultural Irrigation
Thermal-Gas: Currant Creek Power Plant
Transmission: South Central Wyoming line
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Table of Contents
Table of Contents........................................................................................................................... ......... i
Index of Tables................................................................... ...................................................................iii
Index of Figures..................................................................................................................................... iv
Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results ...................................................................................1
Area Charts: Portfolio Capacity Additions by Resource Type............................................................... 6
Area Charts: "B-Series" - Portfolio Capacity Additions by Resource Type................................... 30
Core Cases - Pivot Summary ...............................................................................................................35
Core Cases - 20-Year Summary by Scenaro Variable...................................................................41
Resource Type Sumary.................................................................................................................44
Detailed Portfolio Data.........................................................................................................................52
Renewable Portfolio Sumary by Case .......................................................................................... 52
B-Series Portfolio RPS Summary..................................................................................................100
Portfolio Summary Tables.............................................................................................................110
Notes for the Portfolio Resource Tables.............. ........................ .............................. ........ .......... Ii 0
B-Series Portfolio Sumary Tables .............................................................................................. 171
Resource Differences, B-Series Less Corresponding Original Portfolios.......................................... 189
2008 Preferred Portfolio........................................................................................................... .......... 192
Appendix B - Stochastic Production Cost Simulation Results ..........................................................195
Probability-weighted Stochastic Measure Results ............................................................................. 199
Portfolio Measure Rankings and Preference Scores........................................................................... 203
Portfolio PVR Cost Component Comparison.................................................................................. 216
Appendix C _ IRP Regulatory Compliance..........................................................................................223
Background ............................................................ ............. ................ ......... ........ ..... ..... ....................223
General Compliance............ ............................................................................................................... 223
California.......................................................................................................................................225
Idaho..............................................................................................................................................225
Oregon...........................................................................................................................................225
Uta...............................................................................................................................................225
Washington. ................................... .... ................................................ ... ........ .......... .... ....... ... ... ... ...226
Wyoming .......................................................................................................................................226
Appendix D - Public Input Process....................................................................................................... 253
Participant List ...................................................................................................................................253
Commissions............................. ............... ... .... ................................ ............ ...... .... ........................254
Intervenors.......... .... .................................. ....... ... ... ................... ........ .......... ........... .................... ....254
Others ............................................................................................................................................254
Public Input Meetings ........................................................................................................................255
General Meetings...........................................................................................................................255
February 29, 2008........................................................................................................................255
May 22, 2008 ...............................................................................................................................255
May 23, 2008 ...............................................................................................................................255
June 26, 2008 ............................................................................................................. ..... .............256
November 12,2008 (Conference Call) ........................................................................................256
December 18, 2008 ......................................................................................................................256
Januar 7, 2009 ............................................................................................................................ 256
February 2, 2009 ..........................................................................................................................257
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Table of Contents
March 11,2009 (Conference Call) .............................................................................................. 257
March 19,2009 (Conference Call) Utah Parties.......................................................................... 257State Meetings .................................................................................................................. .............257
April 9, 2008 (Utah).....................................................................................................................257
April 10, 2008 (Wyoming) ..........................................................................................................257
April 21, 2008 (Oregon / California) ...........................................................................................258
April 22, 2008 (Washington) .......................................................................................................258
April 23, 2008 (Idaho) .................................................................................................................258
May 14, 2008 (Uta)....................................................................................................................258
Parking Lot Issues ..............................................................................................................................259
Public Review ofIRP Draft Document..............................................................................................259
Contact Information ... .............. ..... ..... ........ ........................ ............. ...................................................259
Appendix E - State Load Forecast ........................................................................................................261
Load Forecast State Level Sumares...........................................................................................26l
State Sumaries................................. ................ ............................... ............................................ 261
Oregon .........................................................................................................................................261
Washington.................................................................................................................................. 262
California ........................ ............... ....... ... ................................. ....... ..................... ....................... 263
Utah..............................................................................................................................................263
Idaho ............................................................................................................................................265
Wyoming .....................................................................................................................................265
Februar 2009 Load Forecast Update ................................................................................................267
Febru 2009 Energy Forecast.....................................................................................................267
February 2009 System-Wide Coincident Peak Load Forecast ...... ................................................ 267
Appendix F - Wind Integration Costs and Capacity Planning Contributions ................................ 269
Wind Integration Costs....................................................................................................................... 270
Background....................................................................................................................................270
Determination ofIncremental Reserve ("Intra-Hour") Requirements .......................................... 271
Actual Variation...........................................................................................................................271
Regulate Down ............................................................................................................................272
Regulate Up .................................................................................................................................272
System Balancing ("Inter-Hour") Cost Calculation ...................................................................... 272
Day-ahead Varation....................................................................................................................272
Hour-ahead variation ...................................................................................................................274
Determination of Incremental Reserve ("Intr-Hour") Requirements ..........................................275
Incremental Reserve ("Intra-Hour") Cost Calculation .................................................................. 276
Conclusion............................. .......................................................................................... .............. 277
Tools, Approaches, And External Opportities................................................................................ 278
Wind Capacity Planning Contrbution................................ ............................................................... 281
Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analysis ..............................................................................................285
Class 2 DSM Decrement Analyses. ........................... ............................ ...... ....... ................................ 285
Modeling Results................................ ........... ................. ...............................................................285
Appendix H - Load and Resource Balance with Lake Side II Included as a Planned Resource in
2012 .................................................................................................................................291
ii
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Index of Tables I Figures
Table A.l - Core Case Definitions ...............................................................................................................2
Table A.2 - Sensitivity and Business Plan Reference Case Definitions....................................................... 3
Table A.3 - Resource Name and Description...............................................................................................4
Table AA - Pivot Summary Year 2009 to 2013 (Medium Load Growth Only) ........................................ 35
Table A.5 - Pivot Summary Year 2014 to 2020 (Medium Load Growt Only) ........................................ 37
Table A,6 - Pivot Sumary Year 202l to 2028 (Medium Load Growth Only) ........................................39
Table A.7 - 20-year Summary by Scenaro Variable, Load Growth.......................................................... 41
Table A,8 - 20-year Summary by Scenario Variable, C02leve1..............................................................42
Table A,9 - 20-year Summary by Scenario Variable, Natual Gas Price Forecast ....................................43
Table A.1O - Total Aggregate Capacity Additions for 20 years................................................................. 44
Table A,11 - Total Wind Aggregate Capacity Additions for 20 years....................................................... 45
Table A,12 - Total Market Purchases Capacity Additions for 20 years.....................................................46
Table A, 13 - Total Gas Capacity Additions for 20 years...........................................................................47
Table A,14 - Total Conventional Coal Capacity Additions for 20 years ...................................................48
Table A.15 - Total Clean Coal Capacity Additions for 20 years ...............................................................49
Table A.16 - Total Demand-side Management Capacity Additions for 20 years ...................................... 50
Table A,17 - Total Other Capacity Additions for 20 years ........................................................................ 51
Table A.18 - Planned Resources .............................................................................................................. 111
Table A,19 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 2B less Original Case 2 Portfolio.... ................ ....... 189
Table A,20 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 5B less Original Case 5 Portfolio .................. ......... 189
Table A,21 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 5B CCCT Dry less Original Case 5B Portfolio ......189
Table A,22 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 5B CCCT Wet less Original Case 5 Portfolio ........ 190
Table A,23 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 8B less Original Case 8 Portfolio ............................ 190
Table A.24 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 9B less Original Case 9 Portfolio ........................... 190
Table A,25 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case lOB less Original Case 10 Portfolio .......................191
Table A,26 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 17B less Original Case 17 Portfolio ....................... 191
Table A,27 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case l8B less Original Case 18 Portfolio .......................191
Table A,28 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 47B less Original Case 47 Portfolio .......................192
Table B.l- Stochastic Mean PVR by CO2 Tax Level, B Series Portfolios........................................... 195
Table B.2 - Stochastic Risk Results by CO2 Tax Level, B Series Portfolios ........................................... 195
Table B.3 - B Series Cases, Portfolio Emissions Externality Cost by CO2 Adder Level........................196
Table BA - B Series Cases, CO2 Cost Exposure (non-weighted) ............................................................ 197
Table B.5 - B Series Cases, Customer Rate Impact ................................................................................. 197
Table B.6 - B Series Cases, Average Annual Energy Not Served ...........................................................l98
Table B. 7 - B Series Cases, Loss of Load Probability for a Major July Event ........................................ 198
Table B.8 - B Series Cases, Capital Costs for 2009-20l8........................................................................198
Table B.9 - Original Portfolio Stochastic Cost Results............................................................................ 199
Table B.l 0 - Stochastic Cost Results based on Probability-weighted CO2 Tax Levels ........................... 201
Table B.11 - $15/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 203
Table B.12 - $20/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 204
Table B.13 - $25/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 205
Table B.14 - $30/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 206
Table B.15 - $35/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 207
Table B.16 - $40/ton Expected~value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 208
Table B.17 - $45/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 209
Table B.18 - $50/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 210
Table B.19 - $55/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................21l
iii
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Index of Tables / Figures
Table B.20 - $60/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 212
Table B.21 - $65/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 213
Table B.22 - $70/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax........................................................................................ 214
Table B.23 - Alternate Performance Rang Scheme Including the Upper-Tail Mean PVRR .............. 215
Table B.24 - Core Case: Portfolio PVR Cost Components ($45 C02 - Tax Strategy) .........................216
Table B.25 - Sensitivity Case: Portfolio PVRR Cost Components ($45 C02 - Tax Strategy)................ 219
Table B.26 - B-Series Cases: Portfolio PVRR Cost Components ($45 C02 - Tax Strategy).................. 221Table C.L - Integrted Resource Planning Stadards and Guidelines Sumary by State ....................... 227
Table C.2 - Handling of 2007 IRP Acknowledgement and Other IRP Requirements .............................230
Table C.3 - Oregon Public Utility Commssion IRP Stadard and Guidelines........................................ 237
Table CA - Utah Public Service Commssion IRP Stadard and Guidelines .......................................... 243
Table C.5 - Washington Utilities and Trade Commssion IRP Stadad and Guidelines (WAC 480-100-
238) ..................................................................................................................................................248
Table E.l - Forecasted Sales Growt in Oregon.. .............. .............. .................... ................... ............ ..... 261
Table E.2 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in Washington ....................................................................262
Table E.3 ~ Forecasted Retail Sales Growt in California ....................................................................... 263
Table EA - Forecasted Retail Sales Growt in Utah................................................................................ 264
Table E.5 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in Idaho ..............................................................................265
Table E.6 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growt in Wyoming........................................................................ 265
Table E.7 - Februar 2009 Anual Load Growth forecasted in Megawatt-hours.................................... 267
Table E.8 - Februar 2009 Forecasted Coincidental Peak Load in Megawatts ....................................... 267
Table F.l - 2008 IRP Preferred Portolio Wind Resource Additions by Year .........................................269
Table F.2 - Wind Inter-hour Day-Ahead Balancing Transaction Costs................................................... 273
Table F.3 - Inter-hour Hour-Ahead Balancing Transaction Cost Ranges ................................................ 275
Table FA - Wind Inter-hour Hour-Ahead Balancing Trasaction Costs .................................................275
Table F.5 - Total Wind System Intra-hour Reserve Requirement (MW).................................................276
Table F.6 - Costs for Wind Intra-hour Incremental Reserves ..................................................................277
Table F.7 - Wind Integration Costs (2009 Dollars).................................................................................. 278
Table F.8 _ Incremental Capacity Contributions from Proxy Wind Resources........................................ 282
Table G.l- Annual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $8 C02 Tax, 2010-2017.........................285
Table G.2 - Anual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $8 C02 Tax, 2018-2026.........................286
Table G.3 - Annual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $45 C02 Tax, 2010-2017.......................287
Table GA - Anual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $45 C02 Tax, 2018-2026......................288
Table H.l- Capacity Loads and Resources including Lake Side II (12% Target Reserve Margin)........ 291Table H.2 - System Capacity Loads and Resources including Lake Side II (15% Target Reserve Margin)
..........................................................................................................................................................292
Figue F.I-Hour-Ahead Variation Frequency Distribution..................................................................... 274
Figure G.l - East Decrement Price Trends...............................................................................................286
Figure G.2 - West Decrement Price Trends .............................................................................................287
Figue G.3 - East Decrement Price Trends for $45 C02 Tax Level........................................................ 288
Figure GA - West Decrement Price Trends for $45 C02 Tax LeveL..................................................... 289
Figue H.l - System Capacity Position Trend including Lake Side II ........ .......... ..................... .............. 292
Figue H.2 - East Capacity Position Trend including Lake Side II ..........................................................293
Figue H.3 - System Average Monthly and Anual Energy Balances including Lake Side II ...... .......... 293
Figure HA - East Average Monthly and Anual Energy Balances including Lake Side II.. .......... .........294
iv
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PaciØCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
APPENDIX A - DETAIL CAPACITY EXPANSION RESULTS
This appendix provides additional System Optimizer results for each of the cases studied during
the 2008 IRP. A prior version of this appendix was provided to IRP public participants in
December 2008 and later updated. New to this appendix are the additional "B-Series" cases and
their respective charts and tables which are at the end of each section of this appendix. The
follow bullets layout this appendix;
Reference Information
. Case Definition List
. Resource Name List
Charts and Pivot Summaries
. Portfolio Area Chars
o "B-Series" Area Chars
. Core Cases - Pivot Summary
o 2009 to 2013
o 2014 to 2020
o 2021 to 2028
. Core Cases - 20- Year Summary by Scenario Variable
o CO2 Tax Level
o Gas Price Curves
o Load Growth Level
. Core Cases - Resource Type Summary
Detail Portfolio Data
. Portfolio RPS Summary
. Portfolio Summary Tables
. B Series Delta Summary Comparison
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3
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Table A.3 - Resource Name and Description
CCS Hunter3 East IRP Carbon Captue & Sequestration Hunter 3
Coal Plant Turbine Upgrades East Coal Plant Turbine Upgrades
UTIGCCCCS East IR Uta Integrated Gasificafication Combine Cycle Carbon
Captue & Sequestration
UT Pulverized Coal East IRP Utah Pulverized Coal
UT Pulverized Coal CCS East IRP Uta Pulverized Coal Carbon Capture & Sequestration
WYIGCCCCS East IR Wyoming Integrated Gasificafication Combine Cycle
Carbon Captue & SeQuestration
WY Pulverized Coal East IRP Wyoming Pulverized Coal
WY Pulverized Coal CCS East IR Wyoming Pulverized Coal Carbon Captue &
Sequestrtion
CCS Bridger!West IRP Carbon Captue & Sequestration Bridger 1
CCS Bridger2 West IR Carbon Captue & Sequestration Bridger 2
CCCT F IxI East/West Combine Cycle Combustion Turbine F-Machine IxI with
Duct Firing
CCCTF 2xI East/West Combine Cycle Combustion Turbine F-Machine 2xI with
Duct Firig
CCCTG IxI East/West Combine Cycle Combustion Turbine G-Machine IxI with
Duct Firig
CCCTH2xI East/West Combine Cycle Combustion Turbine H-Machine 2xI with
Duct Firp;
ICE East/West Internal Combustion Engine
IC Aero East/West Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine Intercooled Aero
SCCT Aero East/West Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine Aero Dérivative
SCCTFrame East/West Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine Frame
Geothermal East/West Geothermal (East-Blundell,East-Greenfield, West-
Greenfield)
Nuclear East/ West Nuclear
Battery Storage East/West Battery Storage
Utility Biomass East /West Utility Biomas
CAES East/ West Compressed Air Energy Storage
CHP - Biomass East/ West Combined Heat and Power - Biomass
CHP - Reciprocating Engine East /West Combined Heat and Power - Reciprocating Engine
CHP - Kern River East /West Combined Heat and Power - Kern River (Recovered Energy
Generation)
CHP -Other East/West Combined Heat and Power - Other
Distrbuted Standby Generation East/ West Distrbuted Standby Generation
Fuel Cell East /West Fuel Cell
Pump Storage East /West Pump Storage
Wave West Wave (Hydrokinetic)
Solar East/ West Solar Concentrating (PV)
Solar Gas East/West Solar Concentrting (PV, Natul Gas Backup)
Solar Storage East/West Solar Concentrting (Trough, Thermal Storage)
Micro Solar East/West Micro Solar - Roof-top PV
DSM, Class 1, UT-Coolkeeper East/West DSM - Class 1 - Utah Coolkeeper
DSM, Class 1, (BubbleJ-Curl *East/West IR DSM Class 1 (Bubble) Curtailment
DSM, Class 1, (Bubble)-DLC-Com *East/West IR DSM Class i (Bubble) Direct Load Control-Commercial
4
............................................
............................................
PacißCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
DSM, Class 1, (BubbleJ-DLC-RES *
DSM, Class 1, (BubbleJ-DLC-WH *
DSM, Class 1, (BubbleJ-Irrigate *
DSM, Class 1, (BubbleJ-Sch-TES *
DSM, Class 3, (BubbleJ-CPP-CI *
DSM, Class 3, (BubbleJ-CPP-RES *
DSM, Class 3, (BubbleJ-DemandB *
DSM, Class 3, (BubbleJ-RTP-CI *
DSM, Class 3, (BubbleJ-TOU-RES *
DSM, Class 2, (Bubble J
Wind, ¡Bubble), 24
Wind, ¡Bubble), 29
Wind, ¡Bubble), 35
Wind, Project I
Wind, Project 11
Wind, Duke Energy PP A
Wind, HighPlains
WindPPA
2012 RFP Lake Side
EastPPA
Coal & Gas Capacity Upgrades
Coal Plant Turbine Upgrades
Blundell 3
Swift Hydro Upgrades
FOT ¡Market Bubble) Q3 **
FOT ¡Market Bubble) Flat **
Growt Resource ¡Bubble)
East /West
East / West
East /West
East/ West
East / West
East/West
East/ West
East/ West
East/ West
East
East/West
East/ West
East/West
East
East
East
East
West
East
East
East
West
East
West
East
East
East /West
IRP DSM Class 1 ¡Bubble) Direct Load Control-Residential
IR DSM Class 1 ¡Bubble) Direct Load Control-Water
Heater
IRP DSM Class 1 ¡Bubble) Irrigation
IRP DSM Class 1 ¡Bubble) Scheduled-Thermal Energy
Stora e
IR DSM Class 3 ¡Bubble) Critical Peak Pricing-Small
commercial
IRP DSM Class 3 ¡Bubble) Critical Peak Pricing-Residential
IR DSM Class 3 ¡Bubble) Demand Buyback-IndlComm
IRP DSM Class 3 ¡Bubble) Time-of-Use - Small Commercial
IRP DSM Class 3 ¡Bubble) Time-of-Use - Residential
DSM, Class 2, - Goshen, Utah, Total Wyoming, Washington,
West Main, Yakima
¡Bubble) Wind 24% Capacity Factor
¡Bubble) Wind 29% Capacity Factor
¡Bubble) Wind 35% Capacity Factor
Wind, Project I
Wind, Project 11
Wind, Duke Energy PP A
Wind, High Plains
Wind Power Purchase Agreement
2012 RFP Lake Side 2 ***
East Power Purchase Agreement
Coal & Gas Capacity Turbine Upgrades
Coal Plant Turbine Upgrades
Blundell Geothermal 3 (Expansion)
Swift Hydro Upgrades
Front Offce Transaction - 3rd Quarter HLH Product
Front Office Transaction - Flat Annual Product
Growth Resource (Goshen, Utah North, Wyoming, Walla
Walla, West Main, Yakima
Notes on Market and Topology Bubbles:
Please see the Transmission Topology chartfor the "bubbles" usedfor location of modeled resource options.
* Topology Bubbles: Goshen (GO), Utah (UT), WYAE (Wyoming Aeolus), MC (Mid-Columbia), WM (West Main),
WW (Walla Walla), YA (Yakima)
WYSW (Wyoming Southwest)
** Market Bubble: Mead, Mona, Utah, California Oregon Border, Mid-Columbia, West Main, Nevada-Utah Border
(NUB)
*** The 2012 RFP Lake Side 2 resource option was removed in Februar 2009 during the planing process.
5
PaciCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 01
PVRR = $20,045
7.000.0
6.000.0
5,000.0
î
~ 4.000.0
:i..u
l 3,000.0
f..z
2.000.0
1.000.0
0.0,#~###~~~ ,~,~,,#~,#
YEAR
'"1/ Gro rerc: Geic ge pro in a lo an fD ligN yelt is asme to be llni etc:eqihto Pito ei in pnte
2/ Mark Purc: flmim¡rte1 pn ("l oftrnsio) pnun on afird liis at iirt ti re irlh IRP mols and BUbjlo 8Mua tMøbi lirlB31 Plane iere: incuc ih 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro &co tune up. 112012 Ut ix ~ii 26 MW ofo. an pu wlQlad by 2010,
aid exnsion of the Ut CO Ke OSM prram(20 MW by 2018).
II Groh Resource
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
ßD Conventional Col
EB Gas
II Nucler
§ DSM
_ Dist.Gen
. Wind
. Storage
6 Oter Renewables
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 02
PVRR = $21,512
8.000.0
7.000.0
6.000.0
Î- 5.000.0~..:i
~ 4.000.0
~Q.
~ 3.000.0
Z
2.000.0
1.000.0
0.0,#~###~~~ ,~,~,,#~,#
YEAR
Nos;11 Gr 19: Geneicginprina loartoagMlyeWthlsaslobeiillalCOequtlentoPe'sloiillprce
21 Mar Pim: Finnma prud rroltl8) plon ali bølsatmati l' in th IRP mi an SI loannullll Iirr
31 Planne Ælrc: Incuds lh 2012 RFP CCCT. Sw Hyro If eo tune upra a 2012 ut po piagræ, 26 MW alO\ an pu wjndge 8d by20iO.an exnsonalth ut Co Ke DS prram(2C MW by 2018~
ii Gro Resourc
II Market Purchase
II Clean Col
UD Conventional Col
f2 Gas
II Nuclear
i; DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Stra
1m Other Renewables
II Planned
6
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 03
PVRR = $19,503
12,000.0
10,000.0
~8,000.0!.~....a...6,000.0U
.!..ii..
E..4,000.0Z
2,000.0
II Growt Resorc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
un Conventional Col
~ Gas
__ Nuclear
=:05M
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Slotge
~ Other Renebles
II Planned0.0,,~,,~~~~,~,#,,#~,#
YEAR
Notes'
"Gro reum: Gegeneat prre in a lod are lo iigiYe ye Il isassmitobeacqreatcoeqiiletoPaiCO'sioelilmil'prce .
2J Mark Purcase: Fimi maet pruc ("ft ofce trnsaio")prre on ø Iorw bais at mEel hu ieed In lt 1m' mo and sut 108lnuaawilabilit liml.
3J Planne nlsourc: incud the 2012 RFf CCCT, Sw Hy & ool turbne upgra a 2012 Ut po pu agre. 26 MI of ow 1100 pu wi genel'io ad by 2010,
ô1exsin lIthe Uløh Co Ke DSM proram (205 MW by 2018).
Resource Additions for Case: Case 04
PVRR = $34,612
5,000.0
4,500.0
4,00.0
_ 3,500.0l
~ 3,000.0
I
~ 2,500.0
l
i 2,000.0E..
Z 1,500.0
1: . Gro Resourc
II Market Purchas
. Clean Col
lI Convetional Col~Ga
II Nuclear
i= DSM
II Oist.Gen
. Wind
. Slotge
~ Oter Renewbles
II Planned
1,000.0
500.0
,~ ,,~~#~ ,~,#,,#~,#YE
_.
1/Gro ie Geneic ge pr in II lo _laa giv yesthE isasme to be acuiteatoost eqiYenl to PaiC's fOlrdele mel prS2JMiPur:FimnipmrtntoflCtrnsiilprureonafordtiatmirktiubreinttIRPmoslnds~toenUillMilEbilitylirts
31 Plana ren:: inud tt.2012 RFPCCCT. Sw Hy &CO turbne up, 8 2012 uth po pu agre, 26 fl of owari øuri wi generaio aò by 2010,
iie~paoflt Ul Co KerDS prm (205 MW by 2018).
7
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 05
PVRR = $40.526
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
l 6,000.0b
g 5,000.0
co..u
l 4,000.0ii
~
£! 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
~~##~##~~######?#~YE
_.1/ Gro reur: Ge ge pro in a 108l fo agi yalh is lIlDbellMd iiCDeq toPdsford ei nw pr
2J Mark Purc: Finn 1Trt pruc ("ofitlreriÌO"1 piim on iø- b8llnølU ri inlhlRmo an su to lluli av~.bi Imt.3J Plnne reur: ¡"e1ud tl 2012 RFP CCCT. Sw Hy & co tuiri up 82012 Ul ii pieglM, 26 MW d ii an pi Wigeac by 2010,and exon oflll UbtiCo KerDSM pr(20MW by2018~
!! Grwth Resource
II. Market Purchase
_ Clean Coal
mi Conventional Col
o Gas
II Nuclear
i; DSM
II DistGen
_Wind
II Storage
a Other Renewbls
II Plnned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 06
PVRR = $4,140
12,000.0
10,000.0
~8,000.0!.~u..co..6,000.0U
.!..iiai
E..4,000.0Z
2,000.0
0.0#~~##~##~~######?#~
YE
_.
11 Gra re Ge ge pr inilo_ fo. gi veih ii-.tobelÐ.CDeqto Pa'slordMd Il pn2JMaPurc: Firllpr ("oltn)pnonia.iiatrrlUflinlhlRrnansutolmiiiillir.31 Plnn ni: ineUó th 2012 RF CCCT, Sw Hy & ai tu iw 82012 ut pø~ag 26 MW of iian P\-.gø ac by2Ø1D.
en8l 01 th ut CO Ke OSM pq(20 MW by 2018~
i! Grwt Resourc
II Markel Purchas
I~ Clean Col
no Conventioal Col
IZ Gas
II Nucler
e: DSM
II.Disl.Gen
II Wind
. Storge
BOter Renewables
. Planne
8
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 07
PVRR = $34,582
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0 !I Growt Resouræ
II Market Purchase
II Clean Coal
mi Conventional Col
ø Gas
II Nucler
e: DSM
_ Dist.Ge
. Win
II Storage
Boter Reneabes
II Planned
!i~
€ 4,000.0..Q...o
! 3,000.0Q.
Ë..z
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0#~~###~#~ ~~~##~pe##
YEA
,...1/G~reuro:GegereioproreinaIo8reloagiveyertha;s8StobeiiuiniatcoeqiWlenttoPac'sfortBieilmepræs.
2/ Mar Pulàas: Finn market piuc ("frt of trnsa") pmll on a ford bais at rlEU'kel tus reet in the IRP mols an subj Ioiiua avilabili lirr31 Planne ieic: iriuils th 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro & co lurtne up, a 2012 Uth po pu agre, 26 MW of ow 800 pun:ii wiOC geraion ad by 2010,
anexl'Kloflhe U1ah COL Ke D$M prram(20 MW by 2(18)
Resource Additions for Case: Case 08
PVRR = $41,372
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
!i 7,000.0
~b 6,000.0.¡;
..Q...5,000.00S..ã.4,000.0CD
E..Z 3,000.0
ii Gro Resourc
II Markt Purchas
. Clean Col
un Conventional Col
f: Gas
_Nuclear
2,000.0
53 DSM
II. Dist.Gen
. Wind
. Stge
ROter Reneable
II Planned
1,000.0
0.0#~~###~#~ ~~~##~pe##
YEAR-
l/Gro rero: Geniicgeprina lo ar fo a gi'nyelha is as 10 be acuiTalco eqilenttoPacCo's iori eI mirk prce.
2J Mai11 Puid: Finn mirl prct rr oiii trans") prre on a fi tiis at mai1 hLb r& in th IRP mos and subj 10 annual iMablit tirr.
31 Plnned rere: incluc the 2012 RFP ceCT, S' Hy &tol tune upgra, a2012 U1li por P\ agme. 26 MW alii and purd \Vni geio ad by2010.
an expanson ofth uth Co KeDSM pmnim(20 MW by 2018).
9
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 09
PVRR = $40,204
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
l 6,000.0~
~ 5,000.0
Q...U
.¡ 4,000.0
l
:l 3,000.0
I! Growt Resourc
II Market Purcas
il Clean Coal
un Coventional Coal
fi Gas
11 Nuclear
elOSM
. Dist.Gan
II Wind
. Strage
aa Oter Renewles
II Planned
2,000.0
1,000.0
#~####~~~~####ø###
YE
",..llGrre: Ge~piina ki_foagiwiyellisasmbeaiI8.CO8lIoPefaelqrpii;21 Mark Purcii: Firmll pr ("oltrans")prLRon a lo ba IlnvlU NØin lhfR mo ønlUto8l8Yit1ir3Jpianereur:jncudtt2012RFPCCCT,Swt¥ro&ÇOlturbneUpg82012utii~~26MNofow""~wigiaóby2010.
ari expon oftt utah COL Ke DSM prram (20tm by 2l18).
Resource Additions for Case: Case 10
PVRR = $4,319
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
i'7,000.0
!.~6,000.0
'ü..Q...5.000.0U
.¡Q.4,000.0..
E..Z 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
ii Growth Resourc
II Market Purcas
II Clean Col
un Convntional Coal
~ Gas
II Nuclear
51 DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
__ Storge
BOther Renewbles
II Plnned
i."'~'" i."'~~ i.",~i. 1'~'ò i."'~~ 1'~" i."'~'ò 1'~1 1'~'ò 1'~ç, '1",'1'" i.",i.~ 1'íJ i.",i.'ò i.",i.~ '1",'1"
YEAR-,lIGroreGegeraioptinaloal8lfoaginyetti&iilibeacuiraatooeqlentoPatC'sfoeImirkprc:
2IMarkPu:Fimimii1p:ucl"fofictnsaDns")pIreonalordbaalllhUbreÐdinIhIRPIl8l8UbJt08lnulllilait1¡!Tts
3J Plann rerc: incud the 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hy & ailtune uP(, a 2012 ut por pu agre, 26 MW of ow and pu will geiiraio ad by2010,siexon oftli Uth Co Ker DSM pr(20 MW by 2018).
10
............................................
............................................
Paci~Corp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
§"!.
~8,000.0l)IIQ,IIU
.2 6,000.0II
Q...
EIIZ
4,000.0
2,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 11
PVRR = $40,559
0.0,,~,,##,~#,#~#,####
YEAR
N'''1/ Gr Ilsouræ: Geneic geion pr in a lo area for a give ye tli is asme to be acuire al cots eqival to PiiiC's fol'lU ei markt prces
2/ Markl Purias: Finn marlet pro ("nt offce trasaio) prure 00 a fD Dais at ma hub ried in th IRP IlIs and sll to annual availabilty limts31 Plann reuiæ: Includ th 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro & co tune upgra. a 2012 Ul po pias ag, 26 MW ofO\ eoo purc wigeneraio ad by2010,
arii:l eipal\ion of th uth Co Ker DSM proram (201) MW by 2018).
D! Growt Resoutc
. Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
on Coventional Col
~ Gas
II Nuclear
e:DSM
II Dist. Gen
II Wind
. Storage
B Olher Renewable
II Planne
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
lb 8,000.0"üIIQ,IIU
.2 6,000.0IIQ...
EIIZ
4,000.0
2,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 12
PVRR = $50,146
0.0,,~,,##,~#,#~#,####
YEAR
""
11Gro ÆSræ:G8geproie in a lo are lo a give yelhl is 8Sni 10 beacuire81 cots equiv 10 PaciC'& io el ma prClB.2/MaPurcas:FinnllrUpr("ollCtnios")JIreonaklbeisalmihubreilthIRPlllsansubtoanuaiM¡libilitlil1ls.
31 Plann 1l00: indUd th 2l12RFP CCCT, SWi Hy & colune ur, a 2012 Uth po piii ag 26 MW of ow an purcii wigel'ioadby201D.
and exnson oflt uth COO KerOSM prram(20 MW by 2018)
ii Growth Resource
II Market Purcase
. CleanCöI
un Conventional Col
f3 Gas
II Nuclear
E3 DSM
II Dist.Ge
II Wind
1I..Storge
ROther Renewbles
II Planned
11
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 13
PVRR = $31,076
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
i'7,000.0
!.~6,000.0"¡;
..Q...5,000.0(J
~ã.4,000.0øE..Z 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
####~~#~##~e#~#e##
YEAR
NDt:
1/ Gro re: Genec gene pr in elo 8I1o agi yøth is II 10 beai8lalii lD Pe-Si- ii in pr.21 Marl Purdse: Firmllei pruc l" oftr)pIon afi beis 8IlllUNI ....lA mi llsuto anualllabil IWI3J Plann reun: inill th 2012 RFPCC. Sw l¥ & colune upg 82012 UI ri iu~ 26 MW of owan purd wigø8d by201D.
alexnsonolh UttiCo KerDSpr(20l# by 20181.
II Grwth Resourc
II Market Purchase
18 Clean Coal
Dß Conventinal Col
13 Ga
II Nuclear
aDSM
. Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
BOther Renewable
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 14
PVRR = $39,949
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
i'!.~8,000.0'u..Q...(J
S 6,000.0..ã...E..Z
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0~####~~#~ ##~e#~#e##
YEAR-
1/ GR1 1': Gerige pnni ina lo are lo a gi yuth is 8S to be iiniataiequm IoPa's fo eillpnæs21 Marl Puit: Fimirnrbprud ("oftrSi'lprunonaliblisatllhU riinlhIRPIll&andBub!loamilMablilli.3J Plann reun:: inc the 2012 RFPCCCT. Swi lirn & co tune upgra &2012 ut por puch agre, 283 MW 01 ow an pu wincgi ad by 2010,iiexnsollhe uttiCo Ke DSprram(20MW by 2018).
ii Growth Resource
II Market Purchase
1' Clean Coal
lI Convntial Coal
o Gas
II Nucler
ë§ DSM
II Dist..Gen
II Wind
. Stora
BOter Renewables
~I Planned
12
............................................
............................................
PaciffCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 15
PVRR = $50,914
18,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
!! Growth Resourc
II Market Purcha
II Clan Col
on Conventional Col
13 Gas
II Nucler
3: 12,000.0~b
.~ 10,000.0
Cl..U
~ 8,000.0
ã.
~
:l 6,000.0 5!OSM
II Oist.Gen
II Wind
. Stoige
BOther Renewables
1. Planned
4,000.0
2,000.0
,~,#~~,~",#,#ø~##
YEAR
Nos:1IGnie:GenelcgerapnreinalDareaforagiveyelhaislImilobeacuiie8la:eqiYlenttoPaCo'sfoeleIIprces
2/ Marl Purse: Firm ii pmduc ("f ofice trasas") prre on a fo bais It mart hub ie in th IRP ma an subje to anno. avilab~iI limts
31 Planne re: incudBs th 2012 RFPCCCT, Sw Hyro & col turbne upgra. a 2012 uth po puagre,.263 JA ofowand puas windgeio ad by2010,
anclexonoflheUlCo Ke D$M prom (205 MW by 2(18)
Resource Additions for Case: Case 16
PVRR = $43,523
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
II Growth Resouræ
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
un Conventional Col
tz Gas
II Nuclear
l 6,000.0b
.~ 5,000.0
Cl
¿J
.¡ 4,00.0
ã...E
:l 3,000.0 53 OSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
_ Storge
~ Other Reneabes
II Planned
2,000.0
1,000.0
,~ ,#~~,~ ",# ,#ø~##
YEA
-,1/G1Ol':Gegeprinaloaieloragive.yethisastoti8Cuirata:eqiYanlloPaiC'$foellTl'pices
'lMaPi.: Firm mi prouc ("floliclraii"lprolJ on efo bais a1mirlhubreinIhIRPmolsan&Ubjloannlllll ilabihtylimlB
31 Planna ree: iriud tt 2012 RFPCCCT, SW Hv & mil tu upgrade, a2012 ut pa pl Bgllrr, 263 MW ofowa~ pUfas wi~ giraio ad by 2010,
anexon oflhe Ut Co Ke OSM prni (205 MW by 2018)
13
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capaci Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 17
PVRR = $51,207
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
~i!~8,000.0'6tiQ,tiU
l4 6,000.0ii..
EtiZ
4,000.0
2,000.0
I! Growth Resourc
II Market Purchas
II Clean Coal
un Convtinal Cot
øGas
II Nuclear
ei DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
BOter Reneables
II Planne0.0
'jiØ 'j()'() 'j()" ..,'j 'j()''! 'j()'~ ..''' ..''ó ..,1 'j()''ò 'j(),ç, .... 'j()'j' 'j()'j'j 'j()'j'!
YEAR-,
11 Gro ri: Gene gi pIina k.arb8giylltis88Ioti8CllCOeqIoPlfillmapr.2JMarkPu:Finnllllpruc("oftilpireonlilordbaiBati.ldllinlilRimenailollBYtaillii.3J piaru 11: jniiJ the 2012 RFPCCCT, Sw Hy &ailune ti 82012 UI ~ iiiv26 MW ofOl 8n puwind ge li by201O,
anexl\onoltlUthCoKeDSMpro(20MIby2018~
Resource Additions for Case: Case 18
PVRR = $49,745
12,000.0
10,000.0
~8,000.0i!~'6tiQ,ti 6,000.0U..1iii..
Eti 4,000.0Z
2,00.0
!! Grwt Resorc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
nu Convetional Col
o Gas
II Nuclear
53 DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
.8lorage
aa Oter Renewables
II Planned0.0,~~###"~,,,#,,##,
YEAR
_..1/ Gro rerc: Geic geneaton pr ita lo ire fo a giWl yg1h8 iS8lnllo bellil' iiixeqlantloPerp'sfo ei mBrk pr2JMaPu:FinnlTrlpruc("oItnllio)prona~biatnihibl'inlhlRmoanSubtoanua8Wliltiits
3J Plnne I'rc: incUØ ti 2012 RFP CCCT, &N Hy & ma turbne up 8 2012 ut ii piag-i 26 MW of ow an purc \/ geed by 2010.an exn oftl U1ah Co Ke DSMøn(20 WI by2018).
14
............................................
............................................
PacifìCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
§'!.
~8,000.0u..Q...u
J!6,000.0..ã...E..Z
4,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 19
PVRR = $50,102
2,000.0
0.0ø~###~~~~~#~####~~#
YEAR-
11 Gro reurc: GegenB prre ¡n a loai tlr a giYn ye th i$ lImB 10 be acire aI co equi to PacCo'sfon: eleit mir1 prce
21 Mai11 Purcas: Firm rærkei pruc ("f ofIC trniions") Pl're on a fa bais at møl hu reed in th IR mols and subj to annua av~iI limits
3J PJenned Iloouro: incud the 2012 RFP CCCT. Sw Hyro & coi turbine up. 8 2012 Ulh por pu i1l8me 26 MW ofowedeoo purc wind ge ii by2010.
an mqnsio of the utliCo KeDSM poram(20MW by 2018).
II Growth Resourc
ii Market Purchase
II Clean Col
OD Conventional Col
~.Gas
II Nucler
53 DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
~ Other Renewables
II Planned
l 12,000.0b
~ 10,000.0
Q...u
l 8,000.0ã.
~~ 6,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 20
PVRR = $50,536
18,000.0
II Growth Resorc
II Markt Purcase
II Clean Coal
no Conventional Col
tl Gas
II Nuclr
§OSM
II Disl.Gen
. Wind
. Stor
6 Otr Renebles
II. Planned
16,000.0
14,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0ø~~##~~~~~#~####~~#
YEAR-1/ GI1 I'ræ: GegaiD prre in a lo are fo 8 gi¥eye th is Iime to be acire atcoequilentoPe'a ford eleil mirk pi.2J Ma Purc: Firm IIrkBf pruc (" ofic trall) ør on a Iord blis at nøet hub re in tlIRP rn an sut to arøl 8V~ab Imls.
3fPlllne re: incud th 2012 RF CCCT, Sw Hy &CO turtne up 8 2012 UI por pi agma, 263 MN 01 ow iro pu winc gera ad by 2010,In expnson oltli U1h Co Ker DSM pr..(2Q tl by 2(18)
15
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 21
PVRR = $4,517
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
~!.b 8,000.0'6..Q...u
l.6,000.0ii.,
E..Z
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0,~~,##~,~#,,#,~##,#
YEAR
_.
1/Gr nisoun: Geicgeratiol)ina 1D8iefoagiyeltii!lll'tibellI'BllX~IoP8'Bfoelflpr
21 MariiPurcll: Finn marl pm ("iiictrasaio&")pruroi 8fiba.m.hi~iIltlRmo.oSltoanlMillin3J Planne reun: incud ii 2012 RFP CC, SW Hyro& col turtni upni 82012 UI ii pw iv 26 MW ofCM8l ii IMgead by201Ð,
an iion ofll ut Co KeDSpI(20MW by 2018).
II Growth Resourc
II Market Purchase
II Clean Coal
Iß Conventional Col
~ Gas
II Nucler
ë3 OSM
II Oist.Gen
. Wind
. StOlge
~ Other Renewables
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 22
PVRR = $4,983
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
¡- 10,000.0~
~
¿i 8,000.0
l.ii
.~ 6,000.0
..Z
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0,~~,##~,~#,,#,~##,#
YEAR
Nos:
1/Gro~: Geicgell prore in a lo SI1 fD a giveyeth is Ilme 10 be lÐif li lX equMloPac's iærd elil FTrI prces.2/ Mark Pun: FirrmB pr (" alictrios")pmureon afa bMis at nø hub re in thlR inan sultoanui lMlil lits3J Plnn fll': iriuds ih 2012 RFPCCCT, Sw Hy& lll turbne upr: a 2012 ut ii piBgIl 26 MI ofowan puri wigene ad by2010,
anexnsonoltl UI Col Ker DSMpr(20MW by2018)
II Growt Resource
II Market Purchase
II Clean Col
un Convntional Col
~ Gas
II Nuclear
§lOSM
. Dist.Gen
II Wind
II storage
RS Other Renewables
II Planned
16
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 23
PVRR = $51,692
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
¡_ 10,000.0~
"I
c3 8,000.0li5
~ 6,000.0
toZ
4,000.0
2,000.0
#~#,#~~~~#,###~#ø~
YEAR
-,
l/Gro risorc: Qeneiegenen iire iii a lo are lo a give ye Il is asum to be aiire at co equi'iento Pa'sforo ele i!lTrlprce
2J Markl Purcas: Firmnirl pruc ("fro ofie trnsaios")prl' on a IDrd bæ at ma hub re in the IRP mo and sut Ioanl av~abili\ Iirm3J Plann IlSDur: incii the 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro & col tune upgra a 2012 Uth JIr llseagre, 263 MW of ow and purc wi geneio ad by 2010,
anelpansiG oflh uth Co Keer DSM prram (20 MW by 2(18)
II Grh Resourc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
un Conventional Col
~ Gas
II Nucler
i: DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
II Storage
~ Other Renewbles
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 24
PVRR = $60,693
18,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
I
12,000.0
~
ill 10,000.0a.toU
l 8,000l~ 6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0,#~#,#~#~##,###~#ø~YE
-,
11 Gro reSO: GecgeraliD proreina killbsgivenyethElisaslobeactireatcoequMiIOPacICÚlrdelmapree
2/MaPun: Firmllpruc ("oIictrans') pTOre on afobaisÐtnlrklll'lnthlRP moansubjtoarvuaiibilitlirnls
3J Pliil\ ierc: incii the2012 RFP.CC. Svi Hyro & 001 turbine upras, 12012 Uth ii pu agme, 263 MW dow ai purc wigøra ad by 2010,
anexnsonoflh UtatcoKeOSMpm(20 MW by2018~
II Growt Resource
II Markel Purchase
II CleanCoa
lU Convtional Col
tl Ga
II Nuclear
EE DSM
II DiSI.Gen
II Wind
. Stora
6 Oter Renewbles
II Planne
17
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Î- 10,000,0~
L
~ 8,000,0
l
2-
e 6,000.0'..Z
Resource Additions for Case: Case 25
PVRR = $58,838
16,000.0
II Growth Resourc
II Market Purchase
. Clean Coal
lU Conventional Col
~ Gas
II Nuclear
53 OSM
II DislGen
II Wind
. Storge
~ Other Renewbles
II Planned
14,000,0
~
;l 10,000,0~'ü
:i
¿J 8,000,0lii
~ 6,000.0
..Z
12,000.0
4,000.0
2,000,0
0.0~~~##~~#~~#~##~#~##YE
"'"1/GroIHun:Gecgeneprrein8loarefoagivenyettisaslobeacieatCOeienIoPelielilrnpr.
21 Marl PUrc: Firmrnpro("tollisaio)prl9onafard b881lThuriinlhIRPllanIUbtoannU8avilabilill ¡mils3JPlri !1sorc: incude th2012 RF CCCT,S\ Hy & col tuFbne upri, a 2012 Ulii~ag 26MWoIowanpun:wigeac by2010,ai eipa&ion of the Utati Co Kee DSM pinim (20 fI by 2O'8~
Resource Additions for Case: case 26
PVRR = $59.660
16,000.0
II Growt Resource
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
no Coventional Col
ri Gas
II Nuclear
E30SM
. Disl.Gan
II Wind
. Storage
6 Oter Renewables
II Planned
14,000.0
12,000.0
4,000.0
2,000,0
0,0
'/r: ,/o~o rf~ ~ ,/o~'/ ,/0~'?rf~'1 rf~'I '/orf ,/o'/~ ,/01J ,/o,/'?
YEAR
..,'
1/Groni: GegeprinllDarfoagMyethisllmilo beaeiiealCOlliYnttoP8'sfordeimapiæs.2JM8rlPunse:Firmeelpr("ollrnsio)pnnioosfDrdbeis8lmatil'inttIRPmaandsutoønllMlalillírls.
3J Plnn reun: Inud tt2012 RF CC. Sw Hy & mi tull upgrw. 2012lJh ii Plch i:, 263 MW of owMd puwige li by2Ð10,inexnsionofll lIhCo KeOSMpi(205MW by2Ð18)
18
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 27
PVRR = $60,484
20,000.0
18,000.0
16,000.0
_ 14,000.0l
~ 12,000.0'¡¡
~
~ 10,000.0
l.
ã. 8,000.0
~Z 6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0#~~#~###~~~øe#~#~,#
YEAR
11 Gro ie: Gegel1raliDprreciina ID are lo ag; yeth is asme to beaeuire81C0equi\lentIoPaiC'sfordelnwrkpnce
2J Markl PiJse: Finn market prii ("fnt olio transaclioni") plOure OI a blrd bais at llet hiJ re in th IRP mols and subj 10 annUB availlity limr
31 Planne Rlrc: incuds the 2012 RFPCC, Swi Hyro & co turbne up, 8 2012 Uth por pise ii. 263 Mr of ow and purc wi geDl ad by 2010,
and 8Xnsonofthe utah Co Kee DS proram(20 MW by 2018)
II Growth Resourc
II MarKet Purcase
II Clean Coal
Dß Conventional Coal
~ Gas
II Nucler
ë3 DSM
II Oist.Gen
II Wind
II Storage
~ Other Renewables
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 28
PVRR = $47,806
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
¡_ 10,000.0~Ü~
l3 8,000.0
l.ã.
~ 6,000.0
..Z
4,000.0
2,000.0
~~#~##~~~~øe#~#~,#
YEAR
Nos:1/Grol8:Geìcgenealiopiinaloareloagiveyearthi88SmetobeacireatCOequinttoPa'stordelllpræs.
21 Mari PuRse: Firmm&elpri.("olitransiD')piureonalordbaisalmBhlbieinlhlR.lllsandsubjto91nua avlalillimits.
3J Planne T&rc: incUds II 2012 RFPCCT, Swi Hy & i: turbne uøra a 2012 ut por pui:ag, 26 MW of ow and puR: wigen ad by2010,
æiexnsiOfcItheUtco KeOSMprrim(20MW by 2018)
1: Growt Resourc
. Marne! Purc
II Clean Col
mi Conventioal Col
~ Gas
II Nucler
§OSM
II Disl.Gen
II. Wind
II Storage
6 OtrRenewabls
. Plnned
19
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 29
PVRR = $57,635
18,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
i' 12,000.0!.~
'iii 10,000.0CoIIU
l 8,000ã...E~ 6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
,~##~"~,,,##,#~#~
YEAR-'IGro_ro;Gel\gøpminaloiifiagiyellillllDbIai.c:lIlo~'s~eI""pr
2J Mari Punse: Firm I'pnUd (" oftr) pior Ifo b81l nølU.- in htlf in ønsulo..1I 1i.31P1nneie:indiitt2012RFCC,Sw~&aitui.a2012lJpi~ll26MWofowan~wigiedby2Ð10.
lIe~pansoflt uth Co KiDSpt(20MW 1l2018~
!! Growth Resource
II Mar11 Purcse
II Clean Coal
un Coventional Col
o Gas
II Nucler
51 DSM
II Oist.Gen
II Wind
. S10lge
a Other Renewables
I~ Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 30
PVRR = $48,541
18,000.0
l 12,000.0~
g 10,000.0
Co
tJ
l 8,000.0ã...
E~ 6,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0#,~##~"~,,,##,#~#~
YEAR
_.1/ Gro RI; Gegi pr in lE lo 8Ifoa gi yell il II to blacre Bleo eqtoPøiC ~ eI rn pn2J Mart PUR: Firm meel pnui (" oIictr) pmuiOl afD b8al nw Ii ie in thfR mo ansublomill8¥lbiil lints
31 Planne ie: incud th 2012 RFP CC. SwHyfO&eoturbup.a2012Ulpol)~26MW oIawandpuwigelK by 2010,iiaiqnskloflt uth CO KiDSprrem(20MW by 2018).
!i Gro Resourc
. Mar11 Purcas
II Clean Coal
un Conventional Coal
f3 Gas
II Nuclear
53 DSM
_ Oist.Gen
II Wind
. Stge
~ Oter Renewabls
II Planned
20
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacit Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 31
PVRR = $47,552
18,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
I
12,000.0
~
1~ 10,000.0i:to(J
l 8,000.0ë...
E
:l 6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
~~###~#~#~ø##e#~##
YEAR
N"",
11GI' !Rn:: Genegerio pioreina lo area lo agiveyetha is lIlo be acire a1co equivien to PaCoi¡ls fordeJmirkprll
21 Mørl Purse: Firm møet protI (" oficelral\dio"1 pmreon a Iord blis at IIrl hib niec in th IRP mo and subjto anual avilabiit Ii~31 Plnn resorc: includB th 2(12 RFP CCCT. SW Hyro & col tuiii upg, e 2ll12 uth plr Ptcn agie 263 MW of ow an punas wind geio ad by 2010.
Ma exìon-oth ut8h COO Ker DSM pmram(20 MW by 2018).
II Growth Resourc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
DD Conventional Col
t3 Gas
II Nuclear
a DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
BOter Renewables
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 33
PVRR = $69,949
18,00.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
I
12,000.0
~
.~ 10,000.0i:..(J
l 8,000.0¡
E
:l 6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
~~###~#~#~ø##e#~##
YEAR
-,1/ Gro rerc: Gec ge pire in 8 lo area lo a giV8n~thIS8Sme to be acired at C0equivlento PactC'a fo elmirk pr.
2JMørkPuid: Firm rr pri. ("fr oIcelransa'l prnid on afon:iJlSalmirllli.ieintlIRPmoansubloanual awi Iabillirm
3/Plann 1Grc: incuds th 2012 RFf ceCT, s. Hyro& col turbne upg a 2012 uth pl pu ag 26.MW of ow ii pu wind gerira 8d by 2010,
aneinoflhl uth Co KerOSM pr(20MW by20i8).
!! Growt Resourc
II Market Purcas
_ CleanCoal
DD Conventional Col
Iß Ga
II Nuclear
53 DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
~ Other Renewabl
II Planned
21
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Caacit Expansion Results
12,000.0
10,000.0
l 8,000.0
b"ütoClto 6,000.0(J
14ii..
Eto 4,000.0Z
2,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 34
PVRR = $4,564
,~###~,~",~,,#~~
YEAR
..,1/ Gro rerc: Gene geion pt ¡nelo Il'fD. give yell il lllo bea: II COeq1DPa iiei I1Pf
21 MarPurcse: Fim1l1rlpruc("oltn)prOlSa-..at-ihiieinlhlRfmi..lUto..8Whbilltyli.31Planri rerc:¡r.udlti2012RFPCCT.Swtlm&eoUtneii..2012Uliipiøi26MWiilN.u~wigiadby2010,
an 6l¡.nsioflt lJGo KeOSpnm(20 MWby2018)
!I Groh Resourc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coa
ID Conventional Coal
ø Gas
II Nucler
ei DSM
II Oist.Gen
II Wind
. Slote
~ Oter Renewables
II Planned
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
~!.b 8,000.0'ütoClto(J
.s 6,000.0toii..
EtoZ
4,000.0
2,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 35
PVRR = $39,853
0.0~,~###~,~",~,,#~#
YEAR
..,lIGrorerc:GegenprreinalollfiaginyelhislIlobeacil8ati:equifoPaiC'$fordelmaprce.
21 Mark Purc: Firm rntket pR ("f ofio lfi\"1 pr 01 . fo baiB ai nø tl ni in IhIRP fIls and subl 10 aii avilit linls.31 Plnn rerc: incud th2012 RFP CeCT, Sw Hv & aitu up 82012 Ul ix Plag 26 MW oflMand pu wigeic 8Ø by2010,
aiexiioftilMhCoKeOSMpi(2ÐMW by 2018).
i! Growt ResOUlC
. Markel Purcas
II Clean Col
no Convntional Coal
~GaS
II Nuclear
51 DSM
II Dist.Gan
II Wind
II.Storage
BOther Renewles
II Planned
22
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 36
PVRR = $51,242
14.000.0
12.000.0
10.000.0
~!.l:8.000.0i...CL..U..
1ã 6.000.0is..
E..Z
4.000.0
2.000.0
!I Growth Resourc
II Market Purcase
_ Clean Coal
un Conventional Col
ø Gas
II Nuclear
a DSM
. Dist.Gan
II Wind
. Stora
a Other Renewables
II Planned,~###~,~,~,~#,#~,#
YEAR
1/ Gro resorc: Genec giraio proure in a tod are fo a givenyeetl1 is ass to be acuire atcostequivnt to PaiC's imrd elei market prce
2/ Ma Purdas: Fiimirel prouc ("f ofic irasaitmii") proure on a iord bais at mErk ti reei in th IRP mols and subjlo annuai availbiit limits
31 Planne reurc: includS the 2012 RfP CCCT, Swft Hyro & col turbine upia, a 2012 uth jI puch iirn. 263 MI of ov and purcse Wi gerwio ad by 2010,
inllpinsion oftt Uth Co Keer DSM prram (205 MW by 2018).
Resource Additions for Case: Case 37
PVRR = $48.949
16.000.0
14.000.0
12.000.0
ii Growt Resourc
II Market Purchase
II Clean Col
ID Conventional Col
o Gas
II Nuclear
f_ 10.000.0l:
~CL
ce 8,000.0lis
~ 6.00.0
..Z 53 DSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
ROther Renewbles
II Planned
4.000.0
2.000.0
0.0,,~###~,~,~,~#,#~,#
YEAR
Nos:
l/Gl reurc: Ge geio prre in a lo ar fo EI iiiva yearlha is asmi lobeacqireatcoequivlentoPaciC'sfoeI mirtpice s
21 Ma Puic: Firm mark prouc (" offIce irns") pr on a Iorw bais at il hu Æf in th IR ni ind subl to annuallMlbill Imt.
3J Planne 1l: irouo the 2012 RFP CCCT, SW Hy & co turbne up. 12012 ut por pi agre,.Z6i lA of owird Ølwind geraio ad by 2010,
and exnsion oftt uth CO KerDSM proram(20MW by 2018)
23
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP ............................................
Appendix A - Detail Capaci Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 38
PVRR = $41,974
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
î 6,000.0b
.~ 5,000.0a...(.
l 4,000.0l~ 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
#~##~~~~##########
YE-
.1/Gri ni: Geneicgenen pr in i lo iire fo a giwn y8 Ih is 8S Ii be8liealm. ii1oP8C's ro eI ll pr2JMaPurctias: Fimimarkpiouc ("lolictrllio"jptnionafolail8lIltiAlintllRmienliiloanl lMillinls3JPlanne reurc: incude the 2012 RlCCCT, Sw HVro &ail tui-up 82012 Ul iiiiaa 26 PM ofowan puwindge ad by 2010,
an exnsion oftl" Uth Co Kee OS prin(20 MW by 2018~
II Growt Resource
II Mark Purchas
II Clean Col
on Conventional Col
~ Gas
II Nucler
e3 OSM
. Dist.Gen
. Wind
. Strage
~ Oter Renewable
II Planned
Resource Additions for case: case 39
PVRR = $34,791
12,000.0
10,000.0
~8,000.0!.b
'ü..a...6,000.0(.
.!..
Q...E..4,000.0Z
2,000.0
0.0~#~##~~~~ ##########
YEAR
11 Groh re: Geic geio pl' in 8 lo are for a given ye it is aSSme to be acini at CO equivent to PactCrp's io el rn pr
2JMaPurc: Finnmarkpluc("foltrariio)prUreonllon:òaiSaimahlrein IhIRPmoansutoannuaav8iabdilhrr .31Plnne rerc: ¡ncoæll\ 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hy &col tuneii, a 2012 UI po piagrø 26 MW oiow ii pure wigead by2010.
aneillionoftti lItiCo Ker DS prm (20 MW by 2018~
Il. Growt Resourc
,. Markt Purcha
II Clean Col
lU Conventional Coal
I' Gas
II Nuclear
§OSM
II Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Stge
1m Oter Renewbles
II Planned
24
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 40
PVRR ; $24,761
12,000.0
10,000.0
l 8,000.0~
"ü
~
lj 6,000.0li5
~
~ 4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0#~~###~~~~~~##~#~ø#
YEAR
ilGro reson:: Gegeneralioo pirein e ki aR' for a give yetha is asme to be 8Cuir& at co equivlentloP8lCsforell\pice.
2JMaI1 Purdse: Firmmirket piuc ("fnl iiictrnsions") prre on aforw ba at mirket hu niecinlhlRf mols aoo su jetoønnuilaviiablitlimi.
3J Plane l8e: incud tti 2012 RFP CCCT, SI Hyro & co turbne upgras, a 2012 Uth por puas agmet, 263 MW of owøn puii wind generaon ad by2ttO,
8I e-i11 oflll Uth COL Kfl OSM prram(20 MW by2018)
II Growt Resource
II Market Purchase
II Clean Coal
mi Conventional Col
El Gas
II Nuclear
ei OSM
. Dist.Gen
II. Wind
II Storage
lC Other Renewables
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 41
PVRR; $41,542
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
_ 7,000.0l
~u~..(,ll..z
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0#~~###~~~,~~##~#~ø#
YEAR
-,1/ Gro re: Geneegeio pr in a lo 818 fo a give yett i. ass to beacire at co equint IoPa'sfi el miil prce.
2/ Mlrk Purcse: Finn maet pruct ("ront of iraio") prre on a fo ba at nwet hlb re in Ih IRP mols and $ubji to annuii avilablit ¡¡mi.
3/Plane rerc: incud Il 2012 RFPCCT, Sw Hyro &cotune upgra, 82012 ut pa puCh agr, 263 MW of iial pu windge ad by2010,an exnsion 0( the U1tl COL Kee OSM prram (10 MW by 2018).
II Growt Resurc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
lI Convntional Coal
ØI Gas
II Nucler
§OSM
_ Dist.Gan
II Wind
II Storage
6 Other Renewables
. Planne
25
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 42
PVRR = $51,420
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
6,000.0
II Gr Resource
II Market Purchase
. Clean Col
Iß Convetional Coal
t2 Gas
II Nuclear
~!.
€ 8,000.0
~to(,
.¡iEtoZ i: DSM
_ Dist.Gen
il Wind
. Stot
~ Other Renebles
II Planned
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0~~~###~#~~######~#~
YEAR
Not:1IGrorero:GegeI1Onpireinaloarebr8giyethaiSaslobeacuireatcoequiloPa'stoeilTrkpiæs
2/Mark Purmse:Firmmirkelpnuc ("foftrios")pronalobæiiatrnhiJl8lnlhIRPlIensiloanuelMlitlirr31 Plnn reuiæ: ¡nduds lit 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro & mal tune iira 82012 tA i-r pi ii, 26 NN oIOW ln pi wigeiiad by2l10,
inexansi oIlh uth Co Ker OSM proram(20 MW by 2018~
Resource Additions for Case: Case 43
PVRR = $60,905
18,000.0
14,000.0
16,000.0
î 12,000.0b
i 10,000.0
~
.¡ 8,000.0iE
~ 6,000.0
II Growth Resourc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
un Conventional Col
~ Gas
II Nucler
4,000.0
§ DSM
II Disl.Gen
II Wind
. Stot2,000.0
0.0~~~###~#~~######~#
YEAR
6 Oter Renewbles
II Plannd
_.11 GI' rerc: Gene gel'81ii prlreina ID ar fo agi yeth isasli b bBacUire ii coequi toPa fo el ma prce.
21 Mark PUlse: Firm nø.pruc ("oltrio"1 pnon a fo bMls II rr hti fl in th IRP moan su toannu avlinls3JPtni re: intti2012RFPCC, SwHyro&mituneupa2012 Uth popl~,26 MWofowllpurcwindgell by2010,
lWllonoflt UlCoKerDSMprm(20MW by 2018)
26
............................................
............................................
PaciffCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
i'!.
~8,000.0u..a...Ul 6,000.0is..E..Z
4,000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 44
PVRR = $21,249
2,000.0
II Growt Resourc
. Markt Purcas
II Clean Col
un . Conventional Coal
E3 Gas
_ Nuclear
ei DSM
. Dist.Gen
II Wind
_ Storage
~ Oth Renewables
. Plnned0.0,,####~~~~,,##~####
YEAR
No""
11 Gr ren:: Genecgera pr in a loa im lo a giYB \'tha is as to be aciRl at co eqlllent to Pøi"l ford elect mæ pnee2IMariIPurdse:Fiimmai1prll("foflcetrris"lprRlonafon:blisalmirklhuiøinltlRmoansubjloennualavilabilitliir
31 Plann reite: includ th 2(12 RF CCCT, Swif Hy & co turbine upgra, a 2012 uth pDr puagrel1enl, 26 MW of ow anc puiøs windgenenad by 2010,
an~nsonofth Utah Coo Ke DS prram(2O MI by2(18)
I_ 5.000.0b.¡
~ 4,000.0
lis
~ 3,000.0
..Z
Resource Additions for Case: Case 45
PVRR = $20,875
8.000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
2,000.0
1.000.0
,~###~~~ ~,,# #~####
YEAR
_.
1/ Gro 1l: Geic ¡i ørRli; in a lo ar fo a given ym!h is asmetl be8Gire at co ~Miil!ntto Pac"s ford el mi pice2J Mark Pur: Finn mark pruc (" oKictriis")prreoo aford bais atmø ht re in th IRP mo an subto anuallMlebiillii.
31 Plne RlUn:: im: th 2012 RFP CCC. Sw Hy &ma tune upgri a 2012 ut pc puse agre 263 MW of ow and purd wind ge8d by2010,
en&x of th U1h CO KeDSMprra(20MW bV2018).
II Growt Resourc
II Market Purchase
II Clean Coa
DI Conventional Col
~GeS
ii Nuclear
53 DSM
. Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Store
~ Oter Renewbles
II Planned
27
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacit Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 46
PVRR = $21,532
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
I
6,000.0
~
g 5,000.0
Q...u
l 4,000.0ã...
E~ 3,000.0
II Growt Resource
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
Iß Convntional Col
~ Gas
II Nuclear
2,000.0
t3 DSM
II Oist.Gen
I~ Wind
. Stge
1m Oter Renebles
II Planned
1,000.0
~###~##~#####~,~##YE
_.lIGfOreræ:Geneicgenprinaki8refoagiyethislllobeaçIiCO~ID~ioii__pr
21MaPlirc: Firm mark pr ("cilrins.lpronatibaatlllUl8inlhIRßIansmto....llillirJI Plane ierc: incUØth2012 RFPCCCT. Sw Hy &coltuit up II 2012 uth jI pI.. 28 UN of__an pu wigerail ad by2010,and exnsion of the uth COL Keer DSM prra(20 MW by 20'8~
Resource Additions for Case: Case 47
PVRR = $20,863
9,000.0
8,000.0
II Groh Resourc
II Markel Purcas
1. Clean Coal
ÐD Conventional Col
~ Ga
II Nucear
§OSM
~1 Disl. Gen
. Wind
. Storge
æ Ot Reneble
II Planned
7,000.0
I
6,000.0
~
1~ 5,000.0Q...u
l 4,000.0i
E~ 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0,~###~##~#####~,~##
YE-,1/Gl ÆSri: Genegene prre in II lo are fo agiven yetha ill as to beacillat ooeqertoPa's fo elil mø prce.
21 Mart Purd Firm l1et prouc ("f afie ltns) prre on a li bøis at mi hUb ie in th IRP mils anø sub 10 anua avlabiit limits31Plnr re: incui 1t2012 RFP CCCT. S' Hy &001 turbne upta, a 2012 Uth.ii puag, 26 MW oIow and purd wind ge ii by2010,an~siofttuthCoKerDSprra(20MWby208).
28
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 48
PVRR = $41,268
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
¡-
7,000.0
!.
;s
6,000.0
..Q,..5,000.0U
.S..Õ.4,000.0..
E..Z 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
~~#~#~#~~~ø###~øø#
YEAR
11 GmY reim: Geericgeneio prore in a lod ere fo a given yellB is asume 10 be lIuire at co equilen to Pø's f Olrdelenw.-prc:
21MæPun:Firmmapruc("fntofietrsaion)prreonalordbaisalmirltirein\lIRPmoansubjtoannuallMilablitl¡mils
3J Plitll rerc: incud 1l12012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro &ooluiri upgra a 2012l1ll ii purseii, 26 M' of ~ al' purc wind geneio ad by2010,
li expansion of the utall Co Ker DSM prram (20S MW by 2018)
II Growth Resourc
II Market Purchase
II Clean Coal
un ConventionalCoal
~ Gas
II Nuclear
e: DSM
. ~si.Gen
. Wind
. Storge
~ Other Renewables
II Planned
29
Paci~Corp - 2008 IRP ............................................
Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Area Charts: "B-Series" - Portfolio Capacity Additions by Resource Type
Resource Additions for Case: Case 02b
PVRR = $22,040
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
i 6,000.0!.~
g 5,000.0
Co..U
.¡ 4,00.0
is..E
~ 3,000.0
2,00.0
1,000.0
0.0~~##e~##~ #######?##YE
""~1/ Gr ierc: Gecgera pr inslo an fo agl ytthisastobeai etco 8ltoPdiæel II pn2J Maet Purcass: Firm marl pruc (irof tr") pnonafo ti81 nitu Ælln ih IRmø ansilo lnlMll Mni:yplanl\rerc:indthe2012RFPCCCT,SwH)aailiupa2012Ulfl~~26MWoI__øn~..nigea:by2010.
and exriion oIlh uth Co KeperDS pira (20 MI by2(18).
II Groh Resourc
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
lI Conventional Coal
tz Gas
II Nuclear
53 DSM
II Oist.Gen
. Wind
. Sloe
~ Other Renewbles
II Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 05b
PVRR = $41,265
9,000.0
8,00.0
7,000.0
i 6,000.0!.
~
g 5,00.0
Co
~
¡ 4,0000
is
~
~ 3,000.0
2,00.0
1,000.0
0.0~~##e~##~ #######?##YE
Nofl:lIGrni:Gegenprrejnakiareloaglyetllsastobl~atCOeqivtoPa's~8Imalkpr.
2J Market Pur: Firm mark pruc ('mnlor ir") pr ona fo ba at ma hub red In\t IRP rn in sut Ioanual awablity Iimi
3J Plnned resorc: indudslhe 2012 RFPCCCT, Sw Hyd & c:l tu Ilpgs, a 2012 ut por purse iiÆl 263 MW of ow andpurd windgene aded by 2010,an exoo ofth uttiCO KepirDSMprra(2MW by2018¡
g Growth Resource
II Market Purcase
II Clean Coal
ll Conventional Coal
&1 Gas
II Nuclear
Ea DSM
II Disl.Gen
. Wind
. Slo
~ Oter Renewbles
II Planned
30
............................................
PacißCorp - 20081RP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Resource Additions for Case: Case 05b_CCCT
PVRR= $41,325
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
i" 6,000.0~i:
g 5,000.0
a.
~
l 4,000.0
Q.ai
E
~ 3,00.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
1-",db 'i'"1-"'"1-",,1-1-""'ò 1-""~1-"""1-""'"1-",,1 1-""'ò 1-""'ò 1-",1-'"1-",1-'1-"'íJ 1-",1-'ò1-",1-~1-",1-"1-",1-'"1-",1-1
YEAR
Nol:
1/GrO' reri.Genenc geierion prre ina lo are lora giv yiir lhl is assume 10 be acii iicoaquillen 10 Pa Co'sfordeiiálmarlprce.
2J Mari Purasll: Fil marl produc ("f cfci trnson") prre on a IDrd bais at ma hub re in the IRP mos an subjelo annual avilabilit limits
3J Planne r8sort: indudestha 202 RFP CCT, Sw Hydro & col tue uprade a 2012 Ul po~ puas agrel. 263 fN of ow and pur wind genor aded by 2010,
and ~sin oItha Ulah COL Ke DSU proram (25 UW by 2018)
ii Groh Resourc
. Market Purcase
. Clea Coal
un Conventional Coal
~ Gas
II Nuclear
el DSM
.Dist.Gen
. Wind
. Storage
~ Other Renewbles
. Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 05b_WC _CCCT
PVRR = $41,271
g,ooo.o
8,000.0
7,000.0
i" 6,000.0~~
g 5,000.0
a.IIU
.¡ 4,000.0
Q.
~
~ 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,00.0
~# #~###~ #~###~#P#~
YEAR
,..."
1/ Gr 18: Gec g_ratill prll in a lod are fo a giY ye th is assi. 10 beaiuire alcoequivt 10 PaCOI'¡l's kird eiecnc n' prce
2/Uark Ptro: Firrma prduc ("rioflransor') pr on alorwrd basis aI mBrk hubs re inlhlRmosand subje 10 ann ualavablilimi.
31 Planne reri: includ th 2012 RFP CCT. Sw Hyro & aial turbna upg a 2012 Ut por puroti agre, 26MW d ow and pi wind geeton øded by 2010,
aidellllloftIlUtliCoKeDSMpioram(205I6by2018).
II Groh Resource
1' Market Purcase
I~ Clean Col
(ß Conventional Col
~ Gas
II Nucler
el DSM
. Dîst.Gen
. Wind
. Storae
~ Other Renewbles
. Pianne
31
PacißCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacit Expansion Resuhs
Resource Additions for Case: Case D8b
PVR = $41,922
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
i"~
;r 6,000.0
..Q...5,00.0(JlQ.4,000.0..E..Z 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
II Growt Resource
II Market Purchase
II Clean Col
mi Conventional Coal
~ Gas
II Nucler
5!OSM
11 Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
ROther Renewbles
II Planned~~#~#~#~ #~#######~
YEA
N_
fl Grh reræ: Geri gø Il in iloan foagiV ~"'is8Stu b8einiiillea" Pe fr øtll pr.21 Mai Purc: Fir initll pruc ("nt of tr"1 pi on. to bD 81l1hubi ni in..IRP mi an Aitoen-ail ii.
3J Plne resorc ¡ncudlti 202 RFCC. SM Hy &c:lllup 8 202 UW Plii.. 28 MI ofOl an iullgi eli l120Ð,
aneirioflhUlCokeDSpr(2M' by208l
Resource Additions for Case: Case 09b
PVRR = $4,967
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
i" 6,000.0~
~
g 5,000.0
Q.
~
-l 4,000.0e.
~
~ 3,00.0
ii Growt Resur
. Market Purcase
If Clean Coal
lD Conventional Col
B3 Gas
. Nuclear
2,000.0
a OSM
II Dist.Gan
II Wind
. Storage
_ Other Renewables
. Planne
1,000.0
0.0~~~#~#~#~ #~## #####~
YEA
.."1IGrren:;Gecg_raliproreinalo_roagivyelliS8Smelobeacresli:eqivnltoPi~eIdtllrkpr.'l Mrrt Pu Firmmarl pr ("f ofti"1 prre on a i: ba 8I1l hub iu in lh RP mosand su banual avlait limi.
31 Planne reii: imlude lh 202 RFP CCCT, SYft Hyro & mal IUita iiS, a 2012 Uth por pu øg, 26 Ml dow and pufC wind geniiii ad by 2010,
and eJan cilti Ut Co Keir DS ømram (20 MW by 2018~
32
............................................
.............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacit Expansion Result
10.000.0
9.000.0
8.000.0
7.000.0i!.~6.000.0
u..Q...5.000.0to
.!..'i 4.000.0..
E..Z 3.000.0
2.000.0
1.000.0
Resource Additions for Case: Case 10b
PVRR = $40.904
0.0~~~##~#~~ ~~###~?~#~
YEA
1/ Gro R!uri: Genericgenra~on proulB in II load ara fo II giv ye th is asme 10 ii acqird at oo eaivlenl to PacCOf's ford elecri ma pri
2J Uiik Pu: Firm mari produc rfon of Ir.imsactions"¡ praired on a ford basis at mark hub ieed ¡nthe IRP mode and sut to annual iiilabilit1imi
31 Planned 180ur: incldi it 2012 RFP CCCT, Sw Hyro & collurbine upgrade a 2012 uth po purc agrø, 263 U' clowd and puidd wind generan addd by 2010,
and ~nsion oflh uth COOL Keepe DSM proram (20 MN by 2018)
ii Growt Resourc
. Market Purcse
II Clan Coal
lU Conventional Coal
B3 Gas
. Nuclear
a D5M
II Dist.Gen
. Wind
.510",ge
~ OtherRenewables
. Planned
l
~ 8.000.0
!i..tolQ.
~..Z
Resource Additions for Case: Case 17b
PVRR = $51.819
14.000.0
ii Grwt Resource
II MarketPurcase
II Clean Coal
II Conventonal Col
o Gas
li Nuclear
§ D5M
II DistGen
II Wind
_.Storage
e Otr Renewabls
. Planne
12.000.0
10.000.0
6.000.0
4.000.0
2.000.0
0.0~~~##~#~~ ~~###~?##~YE-.
11 Gn ieræ: Gec geneon prore in II load ar lo II giv year lh81 is assme to be acquire at co equivlent to Pacifirp's ford eIricity ma pr
2J Mart Purdase Firm market pr ("fon ii transans.) prre on a fc basis at maik hubs re in the IRP mols and subje 10 annual aVailabilit limis.
31 Planne iæn:: includa th 2012 RF CCC. &ill Hy &ool turte ups, a 2012 Ut porpurç agnme, 263 Wl ofO' and purted wind geneion ad by 2010.
and øision oflh Ut Co Kear DSM proram(20 fM by 2018~
33
Paci~Corp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Resource Additions for Case: Case 18b
PVR = $5,597
12,000.0
10,000.0
~8,000.0~
~u..Co..6,000.0(,
S..is..
E..4,000.0Z
2,000.0
~###~~~~ #~####~###
YEAR
N_1IG~rerce:GenerigeBraioPfOrecliraloaarfoagivøyerthisasmilobeacl8alooeqUÌvaIDPaiC'Sfoiimaprices
2J Uanæ Pun:ha: Firm rnrl pmuc ("rot ofIC lrnsaio') prreon a kird bas IIIT hubsre in th lAP mo an subjlo armuallilli limi
31 Plnned nlSOLlræ: incud th 2012 RFP CCT, Sw Hydro & co turbine upg a 2012 Ul ix po ag, 26 fI dow and purdas wind gell ad by 2010,
and exnsio oflh Ula COL Ker DSM prram (20 Wi by 2018).
II Gro Resourc
1' Market Purchase
. Clean Coal
II Conventional Coal
~ Gas
II Nuclear
5: DSM
II Dist.Gen
. Wind
. Stor
~ Other Renewables
. Planned
Resource Additions for Case: Case 47b
PVRR = $21,785
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0~~~6,000.0
u..Co..5,000.0(,..'Iis 4,000.0..
E..Z 3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0~~###~~~~ #~####~###
YEA
Not:
11 Gr ieræ: Gegelipniina 10lIlllfDagiyell;SlllDbeiøatai8IkiPafoelmipi.
2J UaPur: Fim rnpruc ("nl oi 1f1'"' pr on a fo bi iiii hU re in lM lAP mo an $u1o IMua _illillim.3J Planed resorc: incestt 2012 RFCC, Sw Hy&COI tu upg 8 202 Ut po pulCagl1 26 UN of ow and purd wind gene 8d by 2010,andexsi oflhUlhCokiDSprra(2MW by 208).
== Groh Resrc
II Market Purchase
II Clean Coal
mi Convntional Coai
~ Gas
II Nuclear
§ DSM
. Dist.Gen
II Wind
. Storage
~ Other Renewables
. Planne
34
............................................
............................................
PacifrCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Table A.4 - Pivot Summary Year 2009 to 2013 (Medium Load Growth Only)
load Medium
76 172
87 22
88 220 82
90 716 899
35 95 817 49
Case 05 Low - June 2008 Total 35 436 1,423
Case 08 (Medium", June 2008)81 172
92 222
91 200 82
264 93 683 899
500 35 100 758 49
Case 08 Medium - June 2008 Total 764 35 458 1423
Case 09 (Low - Oct 2008)76 172
87 222
88 220 82
90 716 899
35 93 818 49
Case 09 Low. Oct 2008 Totl 35 434 1,423
Case 10 (Medium - Oct 2008)78 172
91 222
91 213 82
93 705 899
361 35 96 798 49
Case 10 Medium. Oct 2008 Total 361 35 450 1,423
Case 11 (Hi9h - Oct 200)86 172
99 22
64 97 196 82
500 99 674 899
500 105 103 66 49
Case 11 Hi h - Ocl 2008 Total 1064 105 484 1,423
Case 14 (High - June 2008)90 172
103 22
98 82
103 899
104 49
499 1,423
35
PacifìCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Load Medium
Sum ofCa sci
Dist.Markel PlannedCo2Case (Price Curve)Win Huelsa Gas Gan DSM SCPC Purchase Resourc$100 Cae 24 (Medium - June 2008)9 87 172
489 9 99 22250099812882502110359689950105910460749Case.24 Medium - June 2008 Total 1989 105 59 492 1423Case 25 (Low - Oct 2008)9 82 172
9 98 222509971858250021102661899
500 105 9 104 800 49Case 25 Low - Oct 2008 Total 1,50 105 59 48 1,423Case 26 (Medium - Oct 2008)9 87 172
9 99 2225099718282502110364389950105910480049Case 26 Medium - Oc 2008 Total 150 105 59 490 1,423Case 27 (High - Oct 208)8 87 172
500 9 103 22250099812682
500 21 103 593 899
500 105 9 104 800 49Case 27 H' h - Oct 2008 Total 2000 105 57 496 1,423Case 29 (High - June 2008)9 91 17250141092225020108102825021109556899501051511056449Case 29 Hi h - June 2008 Total 2,000 105 78 526 1,423
36
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Table A.5 - Pivot Summary Year 2014 to 2020 (Medium Load Growth Only)
9 94
11 95
261 11 95
11 97
750 11 87
400 3 87
3 88
Case 05 Low - June 2008 Total 1,450 261 59 642 97
Case 08 (Medium - June 2008)286 15 101 859 49
750 25 22 101 821 10
193 60 16 107 939 18
158 11 104 1,010 10
249 11 92 1,358 10
3 96 1,50
3 95 1,561
Case 08 Medium. June 2008 Total 1,636 85 80 695 97
Case 09 (Low - Oct 2008)9 94 937 49
300 11 95 938 10
261 11 95 916 18
444 11 97 996 10
536 11 87 1,362 10
305 3 87 1,499
15 3 88 1,585
Case 09 Low - Oct 2008 T olal 1,600 261 58 642 97
Case 10 (Medium - Oct 2008)291 9 101 902 49
750 25 25 102 867 10
591 95 16 107 939 18
158 11 104 1,010 10
248 11 92 1,358 10
200 3 96 1,468
3 95 1,529
Case 10 Medium - Ocl 2008 Total 2,238 120 78 696 97
Case 11 (High - Oct 2008)750 14 105 733 49
750 25 10 104 689 10
750 25 10 104 863 18
750 10 105 915 10
750 10 106 800 726 10
185 2 97 866
2 97 925
Case 11 Hi h - Ocl 2008 Total 3,935 50 60 718 600 97
Case 14 (Hi9h - June 2008)750 9 105 689 49
750 25 11 104 651 10
750 25 11 105 790 18
482 11 108 866 10
622 11 106 800 679 10
335 3 98 819
199 3 98 877
Case 14 Hi. h - June 2008 Total 3,888 50 0 58 722 600 97
37
PaciffCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
ase 22 H" h - June 2008 Total 5.2 760Case 24 (Medium - June 2008)750 9 1057501110475011104
750 11 105
750 11 1067502102
111 2 103case 24 Medium ~ June 2008 Total 4,611 50 57 729 97Case 25 (Low - Oct 2008)750 9 105 850 4975025111048501075025111041,015 18750111121,53 1075011991,530 107502971,5301752971,530Case 25 Low - Oct 2008 Total 4,675 50 57 719 97Case 26 (Medium - Oct 2008)750 9 105 728 4975025111048001075025111041,009 18750111121,072 1075011991,381 107502971,4236002971,482Case 26 Medium - Oct 2008 Total 5,100 50 57 719 97Case 27 (High - OCt 2008)750 9 110 800 49750251111280010750251110998718750111141,019 10750111111,352 1075031031,39018021031,43Gase 27 Hi h - Oct 2008 Total 4,880 50 58 763 97Case 29 (High - June 2008)750 15 112 661 497502516113716107502516110926187501621885010750161101,009 1075021031,14470021031,197Case 29 H" h - June 2008 Total 5,200 50 84 870 97
38
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Load Medium
Table A.6 - Pivot Summary Year 2021 to 2028 (Medium Load Growth Only)
90
91
93
93
100 346
97
98
97
Case 05 Low - June 2008 150 9 760 346
Case 08 (Medium - June 20 3 95 495 1,206
2 97 250 1,558
2 100 352 1,588
2 105 545 1,453
102 575 1,588
98 731 1,588
100 885 1,588
98 1,161 1,543
8 797
3 90 121 1,588
3 91 233 1,588
2 93 369 1,588
2 93 435 1,588
100 346 720 1,588
97 877 1,588
98 1,032 1,588
97 1202 1588
10 760 346
2 95 95 1,574
2 97 190 1,588
2 100 321 1,588
2 105 379 1,588
102 544 1,588
98 700 1,588
100 854 1,588
98 1023 1,588
7 797
2 99 285 778
2 100 306 862
2 102 321 977
117 186 1,162
108 288 1,283
106 706 1,015
100 1,130 850
98 1,984 168
6 828
398 3 105 224 785
2 106 235 875
2 102 724 515
117 261 1,029
108 466 181 853
106 199 984
104 151 1,184
104 200 1,300
398 7 852 466
Sum olGa aci
39
PacifCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Load Medium
2 105
2 106
2 108
2 118
3,200 109 876
107
104
106
3,200 6 862 876
2 99 96 1,530
2 100 402 1,268
2 102 332 1,530
2 117 499 1,349
108 876 836 1,468
106 1,186 1,268
104 1,087 1,518
104 1,776 9936840876
2 99 613 1,063
2 100 570 1,09
2 102 676 1,117
2 117 502 1,3413,20 108 876 731
106 11 257
104 35 268
104 82 2773,200 6 840 876
2 105 245 1,330
2 107 482 1,194
2 108 435 1,366
117 374 1,4773,200 108 876 1,2801069301,480
99 431 1,480
97 2,30 5173200584876
2 106 601 728
2 107 695 736
2 110 80 745
135 878 7133,200 110 1,342 140 81
112 137 501
112 148 1251071871413,200 5 898 1,342
40
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Table Á.19 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 2B less Original Case 2 Portfolio
2.9 3.4 4.2 6.6 6.0 52.8 6.3 134.3
75 50 150 259 263 50 6 175 210 271 124
287 287 287
2 17 13
50 50
39.6 39.6
5 9
62
* For the 20 Year column ~Growth Stations" are an 8 year aveage refecting the available years from 2021-2028
Table Á.20 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 5B less Original Case 5 Portfolio
34 I 84 81
451 651 400 550
35 35
2.9 3.1 3.0 6.6 4.1 76.2 22.2 132.1 142.1
75 50 150 252 265 50 50 196 12 26 50 11 14
149
130 130
25 22
85 85
41.8 41.8
26 45
233
* For the 20 Yea column "Grqwrh Station" are an 8 year average reflecting the avilable ye from 2021.2028.
Table Á.21 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 5B CCCT Dry less Original Case 5B
Portfolio
* For the 20 Yea column "Growth Station" ar an 8 year ave refecting the avilable years fr 2021.2028.
189
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Result
Table A.22 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 5B CCCT Wet less Original Case 5
Portfolio
* For the 20 Year colum "Groth Stations" ar an 8 ye avee reecti the avilable yt fr 2021-2028.
Table A.23 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 8B less Original Case 8 Portfolio
29
6 158 49
35
5.0 10.1 5.2 7.2 4.3 94.9 3.7 6.1 0.0 0.5
75 50 150 271 156 50 50 17
30
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37 35
41.4 41.450 28
151
. For the 20 Year colum "Growth Stations" ar an 8 year av refec the avilble ye fr 2021-2028.
Table A.24 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 9B less Original Case 9 Portfolio
45 1 1 84 81
451 44 536 305 15 320 0
35 352.9 2.5 3.0 6.6 6.1 73.8 22.7 131.141.75 50 150 373 465 152 52 33 45 52 53 142 4
104
130 130
26 22
85 85
41.3 41.4
3 1
127
. For the 20 Yea co "Growth Stations"ar an 8 ye aveage reecting the avüable ye fr 2021-2028.
190
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacity Expansion Results
Table A.25 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case lOB less Original Case 10 Portfolio
9
359 158 248
35
6.8 7.0 5.2 7.2 7.9 97.1 2.1 0.1 0.5 126.7 126.7
75 50 150 354 423 187 73 122 114 69 28 155 18
266
32 2 51 49
100
35
41.0 41.0
14 5
16
. For tlæ 20 Year column "Growth Stations" ar an 8 year average reecting the avilable years frm 2021-2028
Table A.26 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 17B less Original Case 17 Portfolio
4 4
169 138 288 68 250
7.2 4.0 0.5 3.0 8.6 94.3 0.4 7.3 0.4
75 50 150 265 171 68 45 182
310
12 22 21
500 500 500
39.6 39.6
77 13
77
. F Qr the 20 Year column "Grawth Stations" are an 8 ye avrage refecting the avilable yesfrom 202 J . 2028.
Table A.27 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 18B less Original Case 18 Portfolio
206
0.4
29
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21 70
404
0.5
71
. For the 20 Year colum "Groth StatiQ" ar an 8 year averae refecting the avilable yes frm 2021.2028
70
47 46
40.7 4l.713 7
122
191
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix A - Detail Capacit Expansion Result
Table A.28 - Resource Capacity Differences, Case 47B less Original Case 47 Portfolio
~
. For the 20 Year column "Growth Staions" are an 8 ye average refectin the avilbl ye fr 1021-2028.
4 025 25
14.7 14.769 34
36
This section consists of tables and charts showing System Optimizer results for the 2008 IRP
preferred portfolio.
Resource Additions for Case: Case Pref-Port
PVRR = $41,566
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
i' 6,000.0!.~
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an expns of the ut Co Kee DSM prra (205 MW by 2(18).
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............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
APPENDIX B - STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION
RESULTS
This appendix reports additional results for the Monte Carlo production cost simulations
conducted with PacifiCorp's Planning and Risk modeL. These results supplement the data
presented in Chapter 8 of the main IRP document. The results presented include the following:
. Stochastic risk and other portfolio performance measures for the additional portfolios
modeled to support a 2012 gas resource deferral strategy (referred to as the "B series" in this
appendix)
. A component cost breakdown of the stochastic mean Present Value of Revenue
Requirements (PVRR) reported for all the portfolios.
Table B.l - Stochastic Mean PVRR by CO2 Tax Level, B Series Portolios
2B 22,126 40,062 60,448 40,879
5B 22,554 39,452 58,664 40,224
5B CCCTD 22,462 39,369 58,751 40,194
5B CCCTWet 22,457 39,315 58,639 40,137
8B 23,402 39,673 57,809 40,295
9B 22,778 39,725 59,031 40,511
lOB 23,921 40,261 58,542 40,908
17B 25,569 40,539 56,798 40,968
18B 25,102 40,353 57,136 40,864
47B 22,658 40,507 60,872 41,346
Table B.2 - Stochastic Risk Results by CO2 Tax Level, B Series Portfolios
2B 8,702 12,646 36,914 50,630
5B 8,859 13,441 37,820 51,782
5B CCCTD 9,140 13,595 37,386 52,993
5B CCCTWet 9,103 13,601 37,349 52,874
8B 8,267 14,270 37,697 50,203
9B 8,955 13,644 38,113 52,426
lOB 8,350 14,832 38,506 51,241
17B 7,583 16,363 38,434 49,330
18B 7,905 15,901 38,712 50,424
195
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
2B 11,114 25,686 59,314 73,178
5B 11,211 25,130 59,065 73,171
5B CCCTD 11,480 24,932 58,565 74,252
5B CCCTWet 11,433 24,917 58,391 74,029
8B 10,593 26224 58,397 70,946
9B 11,303 25,304 59,415 73,857
lOB 10,720 26,463 59,354 72,143
17B 9,825 26,977 57,866 68,742
18B 10,178 27,621 58,429 70,11 1
47B 11,165 26,098 59,398 73,800
2B 16,792 38,762 90,087 106,209
5B 16,817 36,998 88,526 104,917
5B CCCTD 17,186 37,396 88,207 106,410
5B CCCTWet 17,142 37,433 87,959 106,144
8B 16,038 36,943 86,765 101,179
9B 16,912 37,252 88,957 105,723
lOB 16,250 37,635 88,046 102,765
17B 14,990 37,546 84,231 96,591
18B 15,453 37,354 85,373 98,767
47B 16,941 39,461 90,319 107,006
2B 12,202 25,698 62,105 76,672
5B 12,296 25,190 61,804 76,623
5B CCCTD 12,602 25,308 61,386 77,885
5B CCCTWet 12,559 25,317 61,233 77,682
8B 11,633 25,813 60,953 74,109
9B 12,390 25,400 62,162 77,335
lOB 11,773 26,310 61,969 75,383
17B 10,799 26,962 60,177 71,554
18B 11,179 26,959 60,838 73,101
47B 12,281 26,308 62,264 77,390
Table B.3 - B Series Cases, Portolio Emissions Externality Cost by CO2 Adder Level
2B
5B
5B CCCTD
o
o
o
17,936
16,898
16,907
38,322
36,110
36,289
28,129
26,504
26,598
196
............................................
............................................
PaciffCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
5B CCCTWet
8B
9B
lOB
17B
18B
47B
36,182
34,408
36,253
34,620
31,228
32,034
38,214
26,520
25,340
26,600
25,480
23,099
23,643
28,031
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
16,858
16,272
16,947
16,340
14,970
15,252
17,848
Table B.4 - B Series Cases, CO2 Cost Exposure (non-weighted)
3,943 3,943 9
474 2,081 2,081 4
360 2,152 2,152 5
353 2,028 2,028 3
1,315 359 1,139 1,315 1
712 461 2,470 2,470 6
1,875 994 1,935 1,935 2
3,520 1,198 3,520 8
3,066 1,040 396 3,066 7
541 1,242 4,379 4,379 10
Table B.5 - B Series Cases, Customer Rate Impact
3.00 6.42 10.12 6.51 8
3.03 6.25 9.74 6.34 4
3.06 6.22 9.65 6.31 2
3.05 6.20 9.62 6.29 1
3.19 6.31 9.62 6.38 5
3.02 6.24 9.73 6.33 3
3.32 6.45 9.79 6.52 10
3.67 6.43 9.26 6.45 7
3.59 6.40 9.32 6.44 6
3.05 6.43 10.08 6.52 9
197
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.6 - B Series Cases, Average Annual Energy Not Served
132.2
169.7
153.7
152.4
154.5
184.3
156.7
131.7
144.6
131.
3
9
6
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1
Table B.7 - B Series Cases, Loss of Load Probabilty for a Major July Event
16.7%
18.2%
17.8%
17.8%
17.7%
19.3%
18.4%
17.1%
17.1%
18.5%
1
7
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4
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2
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Table B.8 - B Series Cases, Capital Costs for 2009-2018
580,304
1,271,802
744,635
756,891
2,417,994
1,335,078
2,164,993
3,624,235
3,013,923
641,136
1
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3
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2
198
............................................
...PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components...Tables B.9 and B.1O report the stochastic cost results for expected value CO2 tax levels ranging.from $15 to $70. The expected value CO2 tax levels reflect probability weights applied to.stochastic mean cost values for the thee Monte Carlo simulations conducted for each portfolio at.$0, $45, and $100 CO2 tax values..Table B.9 - Original Portfolio Stochastic Cost Results....30,487 32,588 34,505 36,603 38,708 40,813 42,918 45,022 47,127 51,632 51,337 53,442
29,962 32,050 33,955 36,002 38,056 40,110 42,164 44,218 46,272 50,677 50,380 52,434.32,372 34,236 35,936 37,697 39,464 41,231 42,998 44,765 46,533 50,961 50,067 51,834.30,453 32,423 34,219 36,152 38,092 40,031 41,971 43,910 45,850 50,226 49,729 51,668.30,789 32,681 34,406 36,234 38,068 39,903 41,737 43,571 45,406 49,734 49,074 50,909
30,575 32,544 34,339 36,272 38,210 40,149 42,087 44,026 45,965 50,352 49,842 51,781.31,504 33,389 35,109 36,948 38,794 40,639 42,484 44,330 46,175 50,588 49,866 51,712.33,043 34,845 36,489 38,192 39,900 41,609 43,318 45,026 46,735 51,191 50,153 51,862.34,835 36,586 38,183 39,808 41,439 43,070 44,702 46,333 47,964 52,537 51,226 52,858
32,562 34,305 35,895 37,559 39,230 40,900 42,570 44,240 45,910 50,297 49,250 50,920.32,478 34,247 35,861 37,558 39,262 40,965 42,669 44,372 46,075 50,480 49,482 51,186.32,937 34,686 36,281 37,954 39,633 41,311 42,990 44,669 46,348 50,780 49,706 51,385.35,293 36,904 38,373 39,885 41,403 42,920 44,438 45,955 47,473 52,022 50,508 52,026
36,646 38,279 39,769 41,277 42,791 44,305 45,820 47,334 48,849 53,523 1,877 53392.37,077 38,624 40,037 41,471 42,911 44,350 45,790 47,230 48,670 53,339 51,549 52,989.34,237 35,896 37,410 38,976 40,548 42,120 43,692 45,264 46,836 51,318 49,979 51,551
36,850 38,424 39,860 41,330 42,808 44,285 45,762 47,239 48,716 53,392 51,670 53,148.37,041 38,591 40,005 41,441 42,883 44,324 45,766 47,208 48,650 53,317 51,533 52975.39,348 40,885 42,289 43,709 45,136 46,563 47,990 49,416 50,843 55,730 53,697 55,124.31,620 33,678 35,556 37,571 39,592 41,614 43,635 45,656 47,678 52,224 51,720 53,742
622 38,632 40,665 51,219 50,828 52 61..646 698 745 997 1,250 1,503 1,756 2,009 2,262 2,564 2,768 3,021.120 160 195 397 599 801 1,003 1,205 1,407 1,609 1,811 2,013
2,530 2,345 2,176 2,091 2,007 1,922 1,837 1,752 1,668 1,893 1,498 1,413.612 532 460 547 634 722 810 897 985 1,158 1,160 1,247.948 790 646 629 611 593 576 558 541 667 505 488.734 653 580 666 753 839 926 1,013 1,100 1,284 1,273 1,360
1,662 1,499 1,349 1,343 1,336 1,330 1,323 1,317 1,310 1,521 1,297 1,291.3,201 2,954 2,729 2,586 2,443 2,300 2,157 2,013 1,870 2,123 1,584 1441.4,993 4,695 4,423 4,203 3,982 3,761 3,540 3,320 3,099 3,470 2,658 2,437.2,720 2,414 2,136 1,954 1,772 1,590 1,408 1,227 1,045 1,230 681 499
2,636 2,356 2,102 1,953 1,804 1,656 1,507 1,359 1210 1,412 913 765.3,096 2,795 2,521 2,348 2,175 2,002 1,829 1,656 1,483 1,713 1,137 964.5,451 5,013 4,614 4,280 3,945 3,611 3,277 2,942 2,608 2,955 1,939 1,605.6,804 6,388 6,009 5,671 5,334 4,996 4,659 4,321 3,984 4,455 3,308 2,971
7,235 6,734 6,277 5,865 5,453 5,041 4,629 4,217 3,805 4,271 2,981 2,568...199.
..
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components ...
3,651 .
6,100 .
6,245 .
8,529 .1,797
814 994 1,175 .
UUustôínerRatelín. .ac .
4.00 4.38 4.73 5.09 5.46 6.19 6.56 6.92 7.57 7.66 8.02 .4.05 4.43 4.77 5.13 5.49 6.21 6.56 6.92 7.57 7.64 8.00
4.54 4.88 5.19 5.51 5.82 6.44 6.76 7.07 7.73 7.69 8.01 .
4.03 4.37 4.69 5.02 5.35 6.00 6.33 6.66 7.29 7.32 7.65 .4.14 4.48 4.79 5.1I 5.43 6.07 6.39 6.71 7.34 7.35 7.67 .4.01 4.35 4.67 5.00 5.33 5.99 6.32 6.65 7.27 7.30 7.63
4.28 4.62 4.93 5.25 5.57 6.21 6.53 6.85 7.49 7.49 7.81 .
4.32 4.64 4.93 5.21 5.50 6.08 6.37 6.65 7.28 7.23 7.52 .5.07 5.38 5.67 5.96 6.24 6.81 7.10 7.38 8.08 7.96 8.24 .4.41 4.72 4.99 5.27 5.54 6.10 6.38 6.65 7.28 7.21 7.49
4.56 4.87 5.15 5.44 5.72 6.29 6.58 6.87 7.51 7.44 7.72 .
4.60 4.91 5.18 5.46 5.74 6.31 6.59 6.87 7.52 7.43 7.71 .5.05 5.3 I 5.55 5.78 6.02 6.48 6.72 6.95 7.61 7.42 7.65 .5.64 5.91 6.17 6.41 6.66 7.15 7.39 7.64 8.36 8.13 8.38
6.00 6.25 6.48 6.71 6.93 7.38 7.60 7.83 8.57 8.27 8.50 .
4.84 5.13 5.39 5.66 5.92 6.44 6.71 6.97 7.63 7.50 7.76 .5.88 6.13 6.36 6.59 6.82 7.28 7.51 7.74 8.47 8.19 8.42
5.74 5.98 6.20 6.41 6.63 7.05 7.27 7.48 8.19 7.91 8.12 .
6.47 6.72 6.95 7.16 7.38 7.82 8.04 8.25 9.04 8.69 8.91 .
4.31 4.69 5.02 5.38 5.73 6.44 6.79 7.14 7.81 7.85 8.20 .4.15 4.52 4.86 5.21 5.57 6.28 6.63 6.99 7.64 7.70 8.05 .
65,144 67,632 69,883 72,746 75,620 78,495 81,369 84,243 87,118 95,741 92,866 95,741 .
58,812 61,294 63,542 66,332 69,134 71,935 74,736 77,537 80,338 88,256 85,941 88,742 .51,373 53,739 55,883 58,419 60,964 63,509 66,055 68,600 71,146 78,099 76,236 78,782
60,337 62,706 64,850 67,535 70,231 72,927 75,623 78,319 81,016 89,016 86,408 89,104 .
56,895 59,185 61,259 63,809 66,369 68,929 71,490 74,050 76,610 84,155 81,731 84,291 .
60,620 62,983 65,122 67,802 70,493 73,183 75,874 78,565 81,256 89,281 86,638 89,329 .59,030 61,205 63,174 65,694 68,225 70,756 73,287 75,819 78,350 86,114 83,412 85,943
51,781 54,099 56,200 58,681 61,172 63,662 66,153 68,64 71,135 78,089 76,1I6 78,607 .
51,809 54,091 56,159 58,561 60,974 63,386 65,798 68,210 70,622 77,512 75,446 77,859 .
55,938 58,085 60,028 62,399 64,780 67,161 69,542 71,922 74,303 81,616 79,064 81,445 .56,883 59,050 61,013 63,422 65,841 68,260 70,679 73,098 75,517 82,957 80,355 82,775
56,912 59,053 60,992 63,367 65,752 8,137 70,522 72,907 75,292 82,709 80,062 82,448 .
53,336 55,469 57,401 59,677 61,963 64,249 66535 68,821 71,107 78,070 75,679 77,965 .
52,314 54,504 56,87 58,758 61,039 63,319 65,599 67,879 70,159 76,996 74,719 76,999 .53,427 55,521 57,417 59,616 61,824 64,032 66,240 68,448 70656 77,562 75,072 77,281
54,523 56,606 58,492 60,786 63,089 65,393 67,696 70,000 72,303 79,418 76,910 79214 .
54,074 56,181 58,089 60,327 62,573 64,820 67,067 69,313 71,560 78,565 76,053 78,300 ...200 ..
...PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components.......1l,320 1l,591 11,837 12,259 12,683 13,107 13,531 13,955 14,379 15,852 15,227 15,651.9,650 9,929 10,181 10,601 11,023 1l,445 1l,867 12,289 12,711 14,012 13,555 13,977.7,287 7,548 7,784 8,165 8,547 8,929 9,311 9694 10,076 11,106 10,840 1l,223
9,911 10,186 10,434 10,850 11,268 11,685 12,103 12,521 12,938 14,263 13,774 14,192.8,916 9,188 9,433 9,835 10,239 10,642 1l,046 11,450 11,853 13,065 12,661 13,064.9,941 10,213 10,459 10,873 11,288 11,704 12,1l9 12,534 12,950 14,276 13,781 14,196.9,294 9,535 9,753 10,145 10,539 10,932 11,326 11,719 12,113 13,362 12,900 13,294
7,274 7,526 7,754 8,126 8,499 8,872 9,244 9,617 9,990 1l,013 10,736 11,109.6,837 7,075 7,290 7,643 7,998 8,353 8,708 9,063 9,418 10,383 10,128 10,483.8,241 8,502 8,738 9,121 9,506 9,891 10,276 10,661 1l,045 12,174 11,815 12,200.8,463 8,726 8,964 9,352 9,741 10,130 10,520 10,909 11,298 12,453 12,077 12,466
8,362 8,621 8,855 9,237 9,620 10,004 10,388 10,771 11,155 12,295 1l,922 12,306.7,058 7,293 7,505 7,850 8,196 8,542 8,888 9,234 9,580 10,559 10,272 10,618.6,538 6,758 6,958 7,286 7,616 7,946 8,276 8,606 8,936 9,852 9,596 9,926.6,602 6,828 7,033 7,363 7,695 8,026 8,357 8,689 9,020 9,942 9,682 10,014
7,567 7,814 8,038 8,400 8,764 9,129 9,493 9,857 10221 1l,266 10,949 1l,313.6,810 7,043 7,254 7,592 7,931 8,271 8,610 8,949 9,289 10,237 9,967 10,307.6,578 6,801 7,003 7,329 7,656 7,983 8,310 8,637 8,964 9,880 9,618 9,945
6,575 6,787 6,980 7,294 7,611 7,927 8,243 8,559 8,875 9,783 9,507 9,823.9,483 9,761 10,012 10,431 10,851 1l,271 11,691 12,1l 1 12,531 13,814 13,371 13,791.9,573 9,854 10,108 10,531 10,955 1l,379 1l,803 12,227 12,651 13,945 13,499 13,923..Table B.10 - Stochastic Cost Results based on Probabilty-weighted CO2 Tax Levels....30,457 32,553 34,459 36,501 38,550 40,599 42,649 44,698 46,747 48,796 50,845 52,896
30,558 32,534 34,330 36,256 38,188 40,120 42,052 43,985 45,917 47,849 49,781 51,716.30,446 32,422 34,219 36,154 38,095 40,037 41,978 43,920 45,861 47,803 49,744 51,688.30,420 32,390 34,181 36,1l 1 38,046 39,982 41,917 43,853 45,789 47,724 49,660 51,598.31,177 33,081 34,811 36,648 38,491 40,334 42,177 44,020 45,863 47,707 49,550 51,395
30814 32,795 34,596 36,530 38,470 40,409 42,349 44,289 46,229 48,168 50,108 52,051.31,763 33,675 35,413 37,262 39,1l6 40,971 42,826 44,681 46,536 48,391 50,246 52,103.32,917 34,671 36,265 37,934 39,610 41,286 42,962 44,638 46,314 47,990 49,666 51,344.32,564 34,350 35,974 37,686 39,405 41,123 42,841 44,560 46,278 47,996 49,715 51,436
30966 33,053 34949 36,986 39,030 41,074 43 118 45161 47205 49,249 51,293 53,339.....201..
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP
202
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Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
7.02 7.37 7.73 8.09
6.81 7.15 7.49 7.82
6.77 7.10 7.43 7.76
6.75 7.08 7.41 7.74
6.84 7.16 7.48 7.80
6.80 7.14 7.47 7.81
6.98 7.30 7.63 7.95
6.86 7.14 7.42 7.70
6,85 7.14 7.43 7.71
7.01 7.37 7.72 8.07
58,307 60,787 63,042 65,810 68589 71,368 76,926 79,705 82,484 85,263 88,047
59,065 61,417 63556 66,203 68,859 71,516 76,830 79,486 82,143 84,800 87,462
60,232 62,570 64,696 67,356 70,027 72,698 78,040 80,710 83,381 86,052 88,728
60,077 62,404 64,520 67,173 69,836 72,500 77,827 80,490 83,154 85,817 88,486
57,266 59,548 61,622 64,161 66,709 69,258 74,356 76,904 79,453 82,002 84,556
59,723 62,080 64,224 66,878 69,543 72,207 77,537 80,202 82,867 85,532 88,202
58,358 60,657 62,747 65,313 67,889 70,465 75,618 78,194 80,770 83,346 85,928
55,940 58,075 60,016 62,370 64,733 67,096 71,822 74,185 76,548 78,911 81,279
57,128 59,293 61,262 63,669 66,086 68,504 73,338 75,755 78,172 80,589 83,012
003 61,471 63,714 66,486 69,268 72,050 77,615 80,397 83,179 85961 88,748
Deviåtiol1ôfProoùCtoliCo
9,524 9,789 10,00 10,433 10,837 11,242 11,646 12,051 12,455 12,860 13,264 13,670
9,660 9,919 10,154 10,550 10,948 11,346 11,744 12,142 12,540 12,938 13,336 13,735
9,937 10,195 10,429 10,829 11,232 11,634 12,036 12,439 12,841 13,243 13,645 14,049
9,897 10,154 10,387 10,787 11,189 11,591 11,992 12,394 12,796 13,198 13,600 14,003
9,059 9,315 9,548 9,935 10,323 10,712 11,101 11,489 11,878 12,266 12,655 13,044
9,755 10,013 10,248 10,644 11,042 11,440 11,838 12,236 12,634 13,031 13,429 13,828
9,158 9,418 9,655 10,049 10,444 10,839 11,234 11,629 12,024 12,419 12,814 13,209
8,347 8,593 8,818 9,186 9,557 9,927 10,297 10,668 11,038 11,409 11,779 12,150
8,680 8,930 9,157 9,533 9,910 10,287 10,665 11,042 11,420 11,797 12,174 12,553
9,564 9,831 10,074 10,482 10,893 11,303 11,713 12,123 12,533 12,944 13,354 13,765
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Tables (B.l1 through B.22) display the portfolio measure rankng and preference scores based on
probability-weighted CO2 tax levels from $15/ton to $70/ton at $5 increments (The two non-
cost-based measures, average annual ENS and LOLP, are not probability-weighted.) Tables are
shown for the original 21 portfolios and the additional 10 portfolios developed to determine the
2012 gas resource deferral strategy associated with the termination of the Lake Side 2 combined-
cycle plant constrction contract ("B" series portfolios).
Table B.23 shows portfolio measure ranking and preference scores for the additional 10 gas
resource deferral strategy portfolios given an alternate importance weighting scheme with the
following characteristics:
. The mean PVRR substitutes for the risk-adjusted PVRR measure
. The mean upper-tail PVRR risk measure is added
. The mean PVRR and upper-tail PVRR measures are given importance weights of 25% and
20% respectively (importance weights for all other measures remain unchanged)
The purpose of this alternative ranking scheme is to show the portfolio performance impact of
heavily weighting upper-tail risk as a separate measure.
Table B.11 - $15/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax
1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 10.0 10.0 2.7 2.4
1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 6.9 3.9 1.5 1.0
3.3 3.0 6.7 3.3 2.4 2.0 3.2 3.1
1.i.1.6 1.5 7.3 5.2 2.0 1.6
1.8 1.5 4.3 1.8 5.5 5.1 2.5 2.2
1.6 1.0 1.8 1.6 7.4 5.9 2.2 1.8
2.5 2.0 3.8 2.5 6.2 5.5 3.1 3.0
4.0 2.2 7.1 4.0 2.4 2.2 3.5 3.5
5.7 4.9 9.7 5.7 1.6 1.4 5.1 5.5
3.5 2.5 6.6 3.5 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.7
3.4 3.1 5.4 3.4 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.8
3.9 3.2 6.4 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.2
6.1 4.8 8.0 6.1 2.0 2.1 5.4 5.9
7.4 7.0 10.0 7.4 1.0 1.0 6.5 7.2
7.8 8.3 9.6 7.8 i.i.7.0 7.9
5.1 4.1 8.0 5.1 2.9 3.1 4.8 5.1
7.6 7.8 9.6 7.6 1.5 1.5 6.9 7.8
7.8 7.3 9.6 7.8 i.1.6.9 7.7
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 i.1.0 8.7 10.0
2.6 2.1 2.7 2.6 6.5 4.8 3.1 3.0
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 6.7 4.5 2.3 1.9
203
PacifCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.12 - $20/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax
1.5 1.1.0 1.5 10.0 10.0 2.7 2.4
1.0 1.1.1.0 6.9 3.9 1.1.0
3.2 3.0 6.7 3.2 2.5 2.0 3.2 3.1
1.4 1.1.6 1.4 7.4 5.2 2.0 1.5
1.6 1.5 4.3 1.6 5.5 5.1 2.4 2.1
1.5 1.0 1.8 1.5 7.4 5.9 2.1 1.7
2.4 2.0 3.8 2.4 6.2 5.5 3.0 2.9
3.8 2.1 7.1 3.8 2.4 2.2 3.5 3.4
5.6 4.9 9.7 5.6 1.6 1.4 5.1 5.4
3.3 2.4 6.6 3.3 4.2 4.2 3.5 3.5
3.2 3.0 5.4 3.2 4.7 4.4 3.6 3.6
3.7 3.1 6.4 3.7 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.0
5.9 4.6 8.0 5.9 2.0 2.1 5.3 5.7
7.3 6.9 10.0 7.3 1.0 1.0 6.4 7.2
7.7 8.2 9.6 7.7 1.1.6.9 7.8
4.9 4.0 8.0 4.9 3.0 3.1 4.7 5.0
7.5 7.8 9.6 7.5 1.5 1.5 6.8 7.7
7.7 7.2 9.6 7.7 1.1.6.8 7.6
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.1.0 8.7 10.0
2.7 2.3 2,7 2.7 6.6 4.8 3.2 3.11.1.6 1.5 1.7 6.8 4.5 2.3 1.9
204
............................................
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.13 - $25/ton Expected-value C02 Tax
1.6 1.2 1.0 1.6 10,0 10.0 2.7 2.5
1.0 1.4 1.1.0 6.9 3.9 1.6 1.0
3.1 3.1 6.7 3.1 2.5 2.0 3.2 3.0
1.1.1.6 1.3 7.4 5.2 1.9 1.4
1.5 1.5 4.3 1.5 5.6 5.1 2.3 1.9
1.4 1.0 1.8 1.4 7.5 5.9 2.1 1.6
2.2 2.0 3.8 2.2 6.2 5.5 3.0 2.7
3.7 2.0 7.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 3.4 3.3
5.6 5.0 9.7 5.6 1.6 1.4 5.0 5.4
3.1 2.3 6.6 3.1 4.3 4.2 3.4 3.3
3.1 2.9 5.4 3.1 4.7 4.4 3.5 3.5
3.5 3.0 6.4 3.5 4.5 4.4 3.8 3.8
5.8 4.5 8.0 5.8 2.0 2.1 5.2 5.6
7.3 6.9 10.0 7.3 1.0 1.0 6.7.1
7.6 8.2 9.6 7.6 1.i.6.8 7.7
4.7 3.9 8.0 4.7 3.0 3.1 4.6 4.8
7.4 7.7 9.6 7.4 1.5 1.6.8 7.6
7.5 7.0 9.6 7.5 1.1.6.7 7.4
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
2.7 2.4 2.7 2.7 6.6 4.8 3.3 3.1
1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 6.8 4.5 2.3 1.9
205
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastc Cost Components
Table B.14 - $30/t08 Expected-value CO2 Tax
1.7 1.4 1.0 1.7 10.0 10.0 2.8 2.6
1.0 1.5 1.1.0 7.0 3.9 1.6 1.0
3.0 3.1 6.7 3.0 2.6 2.0 3.1 2.9
1.2 1.1.6 1.2 7.4 5.2 1.9 1.3
1.3 1.5 4.3 1.5.6 5.1 2.2 1.71.1.0 1.8 1.7.5 5.9 2.0 1.5
2.1 2.0 3.8 2.1 6.2 5.5 2.9 2.6
3.6 1.9 7.1 3.6 2.5 2.2 3.2 3.1
5.4 5.0 9.7 5.4 1.6 1.4 5.0 5.3
2.8 2.1 6.6 2.8 4.3 4.2 3.2 3.0
2.8 2.8 5.4 2.8 4.7 4.4 3.4 3.2
3.3 2.9 6.4 3.3 4.5 4.4 3.7 3.6
5.5 4.3 8.0 5.5 2.0 2.1 5.0 5.3
7.2 6.9 10.0 7.2 1.0 1.0 6.3 7.0
7.4 8.1 9.6 7.4 1.1.6.7 7.5
4.5 3.7 8.0 4.5 3.0 3.1 4.4 4.5
7.2 7.6 9.6 7.2 1.6 1.5 6.7 7.4
7.4 6.9 9.6 7.4 1.1.6.5 7.2
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 6.7 4.8 3.4 3.2
1.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 6.9 4.5 2.4 2.0
206
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.15 - $35/ton Expected-value C02 Tax
1.8 1.6 1.0 1.8 10.0 10.0 3.0 2.7
1.0 1.7 1.1.0 7.1 3.9 1.7 1.0
2.8 3.1 6.7 2.8 2.7 2.0 3.0 2.7
1.0 1.1.6 1.0 7.5 5.2 1.8 1.2
1.0 1.4 4.3 1.0 5.7 5.1 2.0 1.5
1.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 7.5 5.9 2.0 1,4
1.9 2.1 3.8 1.9 6.2 5.5 2.8 2.5
3.3 1.8 7.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 3.1 2.8
5.3 5.0 9.7 5.3 1.1.4 4.9 5.1
2.5 1.9 6.6 2.5 4.4 4.2 3.0 2.7
2.5 2.7 5.4 2.5 4.8 4.4 3.2 3.0
3.0 2.8 6.4 3.0 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.4
5.3 4.0 8.0 5.3 2.0 2.1 4.8 5.0
7.0 6.8 10.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 6.2 6.9
7.2 8.0 9.6 7.2 1.1.6.6 7.3
4.2 3.6 8.0 4.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.2
7.0 7.5 9.6 7.0 1.6 1.5 6.5 7.3
7.1 6.7 9.6 7.1 1.1.6.3 7.0
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
3.0 2.8 2.7 3.0 6.7 4.8 3.5 3.3
1.7 2.1 1.5 1.7 6.9 4.5 2.4 2.0
207
PacißCorp - 20081RP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.16 - $40/ton Expected-value C02 Tax
2.2 1.8 1.0 2.2 10.0 10.0 3.2 2.81.1.9 1.1.7.1 3.9 1.9 1.0
2.8 3.2 6.7 2.8 2.7 2.0 3.0 2.51.1.1.6 1.2 7.5 5.2 1.9 1.
1.0 1.4 4.3 1.0 5.7 5.1 2.0 1.2
1.3 1.0 1.8 1.3 7.6 5.9 2.1 1.3
2.0 2.1 3.8 2.0 6.2 5.5 2.8 2.3
3.3 1.6 7.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 3.0 2.6
5.3 5.0 9.7 5.3 1.1.4 4.9 5.0
2.3 1.8 6.6 2.3 4.4 4.2 2.8 2.3
2.4 2.6 5.4 2.4 4.8 4.4 3.1 2.6
2.9 2.7 6.4 2.9 4.6 4.4 3.4 3.0
5.1 3.7 8.0 5.1 2.1 2.1 4.6 4.6
6.9 6.8 10.0 6.9 1.0 1.0 6.2 6.7
7.0 7.9 9.6 7.0 1.2 1.6.5 7.1
4.0 3.4 8.0 4.0 3.1 3.1 4.0 3.9
6.9 7.5 9.6 6.9 1.6 1.5 6.4 7.1
7.0 6.5 9.6 7.0 1.1.6.2 6.7
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
3.3 3.0 2.7 3.3 6.8 4.8 3.7 3.5
2.0 2.2 1.2.0 7.0 4.5 2.7 2.1
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.17 - $45/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax
2.7 2.0 1.0 2.7 10.0 10.0 3.6 3.2
1.6 2.1 1.1.6 7.2 3.9 2.1 1.2
2.8 3.2 6.7 2.8 2.8 2.0 3.0 2.4
1.i.1.6 1.7.6 5.2 2.0 1.0
1.0 1.4 4.3 1.0 5.8 5.1 2.0 1.1
1.1.0 1.8 1.5 7.6 5.9 2.2 1.3
2.1 2.1 3.8 2.1 6.2 5.5 2.9 2.2
3.3 1.4 7.1 3.3 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.4
5.3 5.1 9.7 5.3 1.8 1.4 4.9 4.9
2.2 1.5 6.6 2.2 4.5 4.2 2.7 2.0
2.3 2.5 5.4 2.3 4.9 4.4 3.0 2.4
2.8 2.6 6.4 2.8 4.7 4.4 3.3 2.8
4.9 3.4 8.0 4.9 2.1 2.1 4.4 4.3
6.9 6.7 10.0 6.9 1.1.0 6.1 6.
6.8 7.8 9.6 6.8 1.2 i.6.3 6.9
3.8 3.3 8.0 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.6
6.8 7.4 9.6 6.8 1.6 1.5 6.4 6.9
6.8 6.2 9.6 6.8 1.1.6.1 6.5
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 6.9 4.8 4.1 3.8
2.4 2.4 1.5 2.4 7.1 4.5 2.9 23
209
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.t8 - $50/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax
3.2 2.3 1.0 3.2 10.0 10.0 3.9 3.6
2.0 2.3 1.2.0 7.2 3.9 2.4 1.5
2.8 3.3 6.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 3.0 2.4
1.5 1.1.6 1.5 7.6 5.2 2.1 1.
1.0 1.4 4.3 1.0 5.8 5.1 2.0 1.0
1.7 1.0 1.8 1.7 7.6 5.9 2.3 1.4
2.2 2.1 3.8 2.2 6.3 5.5 2.9 2.3
3.2 1.7.1 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.9 2.3
5.3 5.1 9.7 5.3 1.8 1.4 4.9 4.9
2.0 1.6.6 2.0 4.5 4.2 2.6 1.8
2.2 2.4 5.4 2.2 4.9 4.4 2.9 2.3
2.7 2.4 6.4 2.7 4.7 4.4 3.2 2.6
4.7 3.1 8.0 4.7 2.1 2.1 4.2 4.0
6.8 6.6 10.0 6.8 1.1.0 6.1 6.5
6.6 7.7 9.6 6,6 1.2 1.6.2 6.7
3.6 3.0 8.0 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.3
6.6 7.2 9.6 6.6 1.1.5 6.2 6.7
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4.2 3.5 2.7 4.2 6.9 4.8 4.4 4.2
2.8 2.7 1.5 2.8 7.1 4.5 3.2 2.6
210
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.19 - $55/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax
3.8 2.6 1.0 3.8 10.0 10.0 4.4 4.2
2.4 2.6 1.3 2.4 7.3 3.9 2.7 1.9
2.9 3.4 6.7 2.9 3.0 2.0 3.1 2.4
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1.9 1.0 1.8 1.9 7.7 5.9 2.4 1.5
2.3 2.1 3.8 2.3 6.3 5.5 3.0 2.4
3.2 1.0 7.1 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.9 2.2
5.2 5.1 9.7 5.2 1.9 1.4 4.9 4.9
1.8 1.0 6.6 1.8 4.5 4.2 2.4 1.5
2.1 2.2 5.4 2.1 5.0 4.4 2.8 2.1
2.6 2.3 6.4 2.6 4.7 4.4 3.1 2.5
4.4 2.7 8.0 4.4 2.2 2.1 4.0 3.7
6.7 6.6 10.0 6.7 i.1.0 6.0 6.4
6.4 7.6 9.6 6.4 1.2 i.6.0 6.4
3.4 2.8 8.0 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.1
6.5 7.1 9.6 6.5 1.7 1.5 6.1 6.5
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4.8 3.8 2.7 4.8 7.0 4.8 4.8 4.8
3.2 2.9 1.5 3.2 7.2 4.5 3.5 3.1
211
PacifiCorp - 20081RP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.20 - $60/t08 Expected-value CO2 Tax
4.6 3.1 1.0 4.6 10.0 10.0 4.9 4.9
2.9 3.0 1.3 2.9 7.3 3.9 3.1 2.4
2.9 3.6 6.7 2.9 3.0 2.0 3.2 2.5
2.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 7.7 5.2 2.4 1.5
1.0 1.6 4.3 1.0 5.9 5.1 2.1 1.0
2.2 1.1.8 2.2 7.7 5.9 2.6 1.8
2.4 2.4 3.8 2.4 6.3 5.5 3.1 2.5
3.2 i.7.1 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.9 2.1
5.2 5.3 9.7 5.2 1.9 1.4 4.9 4.9
1.6 1.0 6.6 1.6 4.6 4.2 2.3 1.3
2.0 2.3 5.4 2.0 5.0 4.4 2.8 2.0
2.4 2.3 6.4 2.4 4.8 4.4 3.0 2.3
4.1 2.5 8.0 4.1 2.2 2.1 3.8 3.4
6.6 6.6 10.0 6.6 i.1.0 5.9 6.3
6.1 7.5 9.6 6.1 1.i.5.9 6.2
3.1 2.8 8.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.4 2.8
6.3 7.0 9.6 6.3 1.7 1.5 6.0 6.3
6.1 5.5 9.6 6.1 1.2 1.5.5 5.7
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5.4 4.3 2.7 5.4 7.0 4.8 5.3 5.4
3.8 3.4 1.5 3.8 7.2 4.5 4.0 3.6
212
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.21- $65/t08 Expected-value CO2 Tax
5.4 3.7 1.0 5.4 10.0 10.0 5.5 5.7
3.5 3.6 1.3.5 7.4 3.9 3.6 3.0
2.9 3.9 6.7 2.9 3.1 2.0 3.2 2.6
2.3 1.7 1.6 2.3 7.7 5.2 2.7 1.8
1.0 1.9 4.3 1.0 6.0 5.1 2.1 1.0
2.5 1.6 1.8 2.5 7.7 5.9 2.9 2.1
2.5 2.7 3.8 2.5 6.3 5.5 3.3 2.6
3.1 1.7.1 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.8 2.0
5.2 5.5 9.7 5.2 2.0 1.4 4.9 4.9
1.1.0 6.6 1.4.6 4.2 2.1 1.0
1.8 2.4 5.4 1.8 5.0 4.4 2.7 1.8
2.2 2.4 6.4 2.2 4.8 4.4 2.9 2.2
3.8 2.3 8.0 3.8 2.2 2.1 3.6 3.0
6.5 6,6 10.0 6.5 1.1.0 5.9 6.1
5.8 7.5 9.6 5.8 1.1.5.7 5.9
2.8 2.7 8.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.5
6.1 7.0 9.6 6.1 1.7 1.5 5.8 6.1
5.8 5.3 9.6 5.8 1.2 1.5.3 5.3
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
6.2 4.9 2.7 6.2 7.1 4.8 5.8 6.1
4.4 4.0 1.5 4.4 7.3 4.5 4.5 4.2
213
PacipCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.22 - $70/ton Expected-value CO2 Tax
6.4 4.4 1.0 6.4 10.0 10.0 6.3 6.8
4.3 4.2 1.3 4.3 7.4 3.9 4.1 4.0
3.0 4.3 6.7 3.0 3.2 2.0 3.3 2.9
2.6 2.0 1.6 2.6 7.7 5.2 2.9 2.4
1.0 2.2 4.3 1.0 6.0 5.1 2.2 1.4
2.9 1.9 1.8 2.9 7.8 5.9 3.2 2.7
2.7 3.1 3.8 2.7 6.4 5.5 3.5 3.1
3.0 1.2 7.1 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.8 2.2
5.2 5.8 9.7 5.2 2.0 1.4 5.0 5.1
1.0 1.0 6.6 1.0 4.7 4.2 1.9 1.0
1.6 2.5 5.4 1.6 5.1 4.4 2.6 1.9
2.0 2.4 6.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 2.8 2.2
3.4 2.1 8.0 3.4 2.2 2.1 3.3 2.8
6.3 6.6 10.0 6.3 1.2 1.0 5.8 6.1
5.4 7.4 9.6 5.4 1.1.5.4 5.7
2.4 2.7 8.0 2.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.4
5.8 6.9 9.6 5.8 1.7 1.5 5.7 6.0
5.4 5.0 9.6 5.4 1.1.5.0 5.1
10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 10.0
7.0 5.5 2.7 7.0 7.1 4.8 6.5 7.1
5.2 4.6 1.5.2 7.3 4.5 5.0 5.1
214
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix B - Stochastic Cost Components
Table B.23 - Alternate Penormance Ranking Scheme Including the Upper-Tail Mean
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............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
APPENDIX C - IRP REGULATORY COMPLIANCE
Least-cost planning (i.e., Integrated Resource Planing) guidelines were first imposed on
regulated utilities by state commissions in the 1980s. Their purose was to require utilities to
consider all resource alternatives-including demand-side measures-on an equal comparative
footing, when making resource planning decisions. Integrated resource planning has expanded
since then to incorporate the consideration of risk, uncertainty, and environmental externality
costs into the resource evaluation framework. Planning rules were also intended to require
utilities to involve regulators and the general public in the planning process prior to making
resource decisions.
PacifiCorp prepares an IRP for the states in which it provides retail service. While the rules
among the jurisdictional states vary in substance and style concerning IRP submission
requirements, there is a consistent thread in intent and approach. PacifiCorp is required to fie an
IRP every two years with most state commissions. The IRP must look at all resource alternatives
on a level playing field and propose a near-term action plan that assures adequate supply to meet
load obligations at least cost, while taking into account risks and uncertainties. The IRP must be
developed in an open, public process and give interested parties a meaningful opportity to
participate in the planning.
This appendix provides a discussion on how the 2008 IRP complies with the various state
commission IRP Standards and Guidelines, 2007 IRP acknowledgement requirements, and other
commission decisions. Included at the end of this appendix are the following tables:
. Table C.1 - Provides an overview and comparison of the rules in each state for which IRP
submission is required. i
. Table C.2 - Provides a description of how the 2007 IRP acknowledgement requirements and
other commission requests were addressed.
. Table C.3 - Provides an explanation of how this plan addresses each of the items contained
in the new Oregon IRP guidelines issued in January 2007.
. Table C.4 - Provides an explanation of how this plan addresses each of the items contained
in the Utah Public Service Commission IRP Standard and Guidelines issued in June 1992.
. Table C.5 - Provides an explanation of how this plan addresses each of the items contained
in the Washington Utilities and Trade Commission IRP guidelines issued in January 2006.
PacifiCorp prepares the IRP on a biennial basis and fies the IRP with the state commissions.
The preparation of the IRP is done in an open public process with consultation between all
interested parties, including commissioners and commission staff, customers, and other
i California and Wyoming requirements are not sumarzed in Table C.l. The Wyoming requirements are discussed
in the chapter text. California guidelines exempt a utility with less than 500,000 customers in the state from fiing
anIRP.
223
PaciffCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C -IRP Regulatory Compliance
stakeholders. This open process provides paries with a substantial opportity to contrbute
information and ideas in the planning process, and also serves to inform all paries on the
planning issues and approach. The public input process for this IRP, described in Volume 1,
Chapter 2, as well as in Appendix E, fully complies with the IRP Standards and Guidelines.
The IRP provides a framework and plan for futue actions to ensure PacifiCorp continues to
provide reliable and least-cost electrc service to its customers. The IRP evaluates, over a twenty-
year planning period, the futue loads of PacifiCorp customers and the capability of existing
resources to meet this load.
To fill any gap between changes in loads and existing resources, the IRP evaluates all available
resource options, as required by state commission rules. These resource alternatives include
supply-side, demand-side, and transmission alternatives. The evaluation of the alternatives in the
IRP, as detailed in Chapters 7 and 8, meets this requirement and includes the impact to system
costs, system operations, supply and transmission reliability, and the impacts of numerous risks,
uncertainties and externality costs that could occur. To pedorm the analysis and evaluation,
PacifiCorp employs a suite of models that simulate the complex operation of the PacifiCorp
system and its integration within the Western Interconnection. The models allow for a rigorous
testing of a reasonably broad range of commercially feasible resource alternatives available to
PacifiCorp on a consistent and comparable basis. The analytical process, including the risk and
uncertainty analysis, fully complies with IRP Stadards and Guidelines, and is described at a
high level in Chapter 2 and in greater detail in Chapter 7.
The IRP analysis is designed to define a resource plan that is least cost, after consideration of
risks and uncertainties. To test resource alternatives and identify a least-cost, risk adjusted plan,
portfolio resource options were developed and tested against each other. This testing included
examination of various tradeoffs among the portfolios, such as average cost versus risk,
reliability, customer rate impacts, and average anual C02 emissions. This portfolio analysis and
the results and conclusions drawn from the analysis are described in Chapter 8.
Consistent with the IRP Standards and Guidelines of Oregon, Utah, and Washington, this IRP
includes an Action Plan (See Chapter 9). The Action Plan details near-term actions that are
necessary to ensure PacifiCorp continues to provide reliable and least-cost electrc service after
considering risk and uncertainty. Appendix D provides a progress report that relates the 2007
IRP Action Plan with those provided in the 2007 IRP and 2007 IRP Update.
The 2008 IRP and the related Action Plan are fied with each commission with a request for
prompt acknowledgement. Acknowledgement means that a commission recognizes the IRP as
meeting all regulatory requirements at the time the acknowledgement is made. In the case where
a commission acknowledges the IRP in par or not at all, PacifiCorp works with the commission
to modify and re-file an IRP that meets acknowledgement standards.
State commission acknowledgement orders or letters typically stress that an acknowledgement
does not indicate approval or endorsement of IRP conclusions or analysis results. Similarly, an
acknowledgement does not imply that favorable ratemaking treatment for resources proposed in
the IRP wil be given.
224
............................................
............................................
PacißCorp - 20081RP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
California
Subsection (i) of California Public Utilities Code, Section 454.5, states that utilities serving less
than 500,000 customers in the state are exempt from fiing an Integrated Resource Plan for
California. PacifiCorp serves only 45,072 average customers in the most northern part of the
state. PacifiCorp fied for and received an exemption on July 10,2003.
Idaho
The Idaho Public Utilities Commission's Order No. 22299, issued in Januar 1989, specifies
integrated resource planning requirements. The Order mandates that PacifiCorp submit a
Resource Management Report (RMR) on a biennial basis. The intent of the RMR is to describe
the status of IRP efforts in a concise format, and cover the following areas:
Each utilty's RMR should discuss any jlexibilties and analyses considered during
comprehensive resource planning, such as: (l) examination of load forecast
uncertainties; (2) effects of known or potential changes to existing resources; (3)
consideration of demand and supply side resource options; and (4) contingencies
for upgrading, optioning and acquiring resources at optimum times (considering
cost, availabilty, lead time, reliabilty, risk, etc.) as future events unfold.
This IRP is submitted to the Idaho PUC as the Resource Management Report for 2007, and fully
addresses the above report components. The IRP also evaluates DSM using a load decrement
approach, as discussed in Chapters 6 and 7. This approach is consistent with using an avoided
cost approach to evaluating DSM as set forth in IPUC Order No. 21249.
Oregon
This IRP is submitted to the Oregon PUC in compliance with its new planning guidelines issued
in January 2007 (Order No. 07-002). These guidelines supersede previous ones, and many codify
analysis requirements outlined in the Commission's acknowledgement order for PacifiCorp's
2004IRP.
The Commission's new IRP guidelines consist of substantive requirements (Guideline 1),
procedural requirements (Guideline 2), plan filing, review, and updates (Guideline 3), plan
components (Guideline 4), transmission (Guideline 5), conservation (Guideline 6), demand
response (Guideline 7), environmental costs (Guideline 8, Order No. 08-339), direct access loads
(Guideline 9), multi-state utilities (Guideline 10), reliability (Guideline 11), distrbuted
generation (Guideline 12), and resource acquisition (Guideline 13). Consistent with the earlier
guidelines (Order 89-507), the Commission notes that acknowledgement does not guarantee
favorable ratemaking treatment, only that the plan seems reasonable at the time acknowledgment
is given. Table C.3 provides considerable detail on how this plan addresses each of the
requirements.
Utah
This IRP is submitted to the Utah Public Service Commission in compliance with its 1992 Order
on Standards and Guidelines for Integrted Resource Planning (Docket No. 90-2035-01, "Report
225
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
and Order on Standards and Guidelines"). Table C.4 documents how PacifiCorp complies with
each of these standards.
Washington
This IRP is submitted to the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (WUTC) in
compliance with its rule requiring least cost planning (Washington Administrative Code 480-
100-238), and the rule amendment issued on January 9, 2006 (WAC 480-100-238, Docket No.
UE-0303l1). In addition to a least cost plan, the rule requires provision of a two-year action plan
and a progress report that "relates the new plan to the previously fied plan."
The rule amendment also now requires PacifiCorp to submit a work plan for informal
commission review not later than 12 months prior to the due date of the plan. The work plan is to
layout the contents of the IRP, the resource assessment method, and timing and extent of public
participation. PacifiCorp filed a work plan with the Commission on February 21, 2006, and had a
follow-up conference call with WUTC staff to make sure the work plan met staff expectations.
Finally, the rule amendment now requires PacifiCorp to provide an assessment of transmission
system capability and reliability. This requirement was met in this IRP by modeling the
company's current transmission system along with both generation and transmission resource
options as part of its resource portfolio analyses. These analyses used such reliability metrcs as
Loss of Load Probability and Energy Not Served to assess the impacts of different resource
combinations on system reliability. The stochastic simulation and risk analysis section of
Chapter 7 reports the reliability analysis results.
Wyoming
On October 4, 200 l, the Public Service Commission of Wyoming issued an Order and
Stipulation requiring PacifiCorp to fie annual resource planning and transmission reports for a
three-year time period beginning in 2002, each to be submitted on March 31, Each report "wil
address (1) load and resource planing issues affecting Wyoming, and (2) transmission
investment, operation and planing issues affecting Wyoming." PacifiCorp submitted its last
report in March 2004.
In 2009, Wyoming proposed a draft rule 253 for any utility serving Wyoming to fie their
Integrated Resource Plan with the commission. This rule is stil under review and is open for
public comment until April 27, 2009 and with a schedule public hearing on May 12,2009.
Rule 253: Integrated Resource Planning.
Any utilty serving in Wyoming required to file an integrated resource plan (IRP) in any
jurisdiction, shall file that IRP with the Wyoming Public Service Commission. The
Commission may require any utilty serving in Wyoming to prepare and file an IRP when
the Commission determines it is in the public interest. Commission advisory staff shall
review the IRP as directed by the Commission and report its findings to the Commission
in open meeting. The review may be conducted in accordance with guidelines set from
time to time as conditions warrant.
226
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22
9
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
Table C.2 - Handling of 2007 IRP Acknowledgement and Other IRP Requirements
Acceptace of
Filing, Case No.
PAC-E-07-11, p. 9
Staff fuer recommends that the
Company address modifications to its
2007 resource acquisition strategies on a
state-by-state basis in the form of periodic
u dates to its 2007 IR.
Staeholder and Bidder meetings are held
throughout the RFP process on a periodic
basis.
Acceptance of
Filing, Case No.
PAC-E-07-11, p. 9
Acceptace of
Filing, Case No.
PAC-E-07-11, p.
10
PURP A QF Wind,
il PAC-E-07-07,
p.6
PUR A QF Wind,
il PAC-E-07-07,
p.6
PUR A QF Wind,
il PAC-E-07-07,
p.7
Staff also recommends that the Company
investigate critical peak pricing progr
to augment its existing time-of-use
schedule. Staff consider the deployment
of advanced meterig to be an
indispensable par of that investigation.
Given the increasing role of jursdictional
resource mandates in the planing process,
Staff fuer recommends that futue IRs
incorporate a section devoted to the
impacts, if any, of state policies on the
selection of prefered portolios.
(PacifiCorp) shall hereafter fie notice with
the Commssion of any changes to its wind
integration charge as reflected in
subsequent changes to its IR.
Expected wind integrtion cost
information wil be included in the
Company s integrated resource planing
(IRP) process in the same way that costs
for other generting resources are included
in the IRP.
Idaho wind developers wil be notified as
par of the public meeting process and can
contrbute their input at those meetings to
discuss PacifiCorp s wind integrtion
study and new data related to wind
integration costs prior to the publishing of
the Com an s next 2009 IRP.
Critical Peak Prcing (CPP) programs (Class
3 DSM) are included as resource options for
portfolio modeling. PacifiCorp developed a
sensitivity portolio with these resources and
other price-response programs, and
simulated it using its stochastic production
cost model (Chapter 8). Class 3 DSM
progrs are addressed in Item 7 of the IRP
action lan (Cha ter 9 .
State RPS requirements are explicitly
accounted for in resource portfolio
modeling, and the company is in the process
of implementing capacity expansion
modeling enhancements to improve
representative of jursdiction-specific CO2
and RPS rules. Please refer to Chapter 3
RPS discussion and Chapter 7 discussing the
Alternative Scenarios.
State environmental/energy policies are
discussed in Chapters 3, and are addressed
in the IR action Ian Cha ter 9
PacifiCorp is preparng an update to its wind
integration cost estimates. This updated
information wil be provided in the fmal IRP
document to be fied with state commissions
b Ma 29,2009
See slide 2 from the December 2, 2008
Conference, showing the adoption ofPGE's
integration cost of$l L.751Mh in 2008
dollar. This value was treated as a
placeholder until the company completes its
wind inte ration stud
PacifiCorp has added several contacts for
Idao wind developers to the paricipant list.
PacifiCorp held a wind integrtion cost
technical conference on December 2, 2008.
230
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 13
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42,p.14
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 15
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 17
Staff also recommends furter
consideration of nuclear passive safety and
pumped storage technologies in the next
planning cycle.
Addressing a requirement from the last
planing cycle, the IRP includes a
discussion of how various thermal
resources affect wind integration costs.
Staff recommends a more thorough
discussion in the next resource Ian.
Staff recommends the Company take a
hard look at low market pnce scenaros in
analyzing its resource choices. Such
possible futues point out the nsks of
ca ital-intensive, base load resources.
The IRP includes a cursory discussion of
hedging. Staff recommends a more robust
discussion of hedging in future resource
plans. Commission agrees with
staff.."(the) plan should include a more
substantive discussion of hedging as
s ecified b Guideline lc.
PacifiCorp included advanced nuclear and
pumped storage technologies as resource
options in portfolio modeling. See Chapters
6 and 7.
See Appendix H for additional information
on wind integration costs, to be provided
when the IRP is fied May 29, 2009.
PacifiCorp developed seven portfolios using
low market price assumptions. See Chapter
7 for portfolio input assumptions.
See Chapter 9 for a discussion on Use of
Physical and Financial Hedging for
Electricity Pnce Risk.
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 21
Staff recommends the Company model
market purchases for the later year of the
plan in order to consistently compare
portfolios, and not inappropnately weight
resource decisions in the distat futue.
The 2008 IRP extends front office purchases
to end of the simulation penod (2028), and
also specifies Growt Resources, available
to the model after 2020, using forward
market pnces. See the section in Chapter 7,
"Modeling Front Offce Transactions and
Growth Resources".
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 26
We therefore support the agreed-upon
modifications to Action Items 3
and 4 related to demand response
resources. (Stafls concems that the IRP
may have underestimated the level
of risk-adjusted, cost-effective demand
res onse.
See Chapter 6 on Resource Options and the
results in Chapter 8.
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 29
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 36
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 36
Pacific Power's next plan should furter
evaluate solar direct use and generating
resources.
4. In the next planning cycle, include
IGCC plants with carbon captue and
sequestration as a resource option for
selection.
5. In the next IRP, evaluate intermediate-
term market purchases, modeling them as
portfolio options that compete with other
resource options, and analyze cost and
nsk.
PacifiCorp complied with this
recommendation. See Chapter 6 on the
additional solar options included for
portfolio development.
PacifiCorp included IGCC plants with CCS
as resource options in all the portfolios
modeled. See Chapter 6 for resource
specifications and background information.
In formulating market purchase options for
the IR models, the company lacked
information with which to discnminate such
purchases from the proxy FOT resources
already modeled in this IR. Lacking such
information, the company anticipated using
bid information from the 2008 All-Source
RFP to inform the develo ment of
231
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42,p.36
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 36
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 36
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 36
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 37
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42,p.37
6. For the 2007 IR update and next
planing cycle, develop a scenaro to meet
the CO2 emssions reduction goals in
Oregon HB 3543, including development
of a compliant portfolio that meets the
Commission's best cost/risk stadad.
7. For the next planing cycle, fuer
develop with staeholders use of loss of
load probability (LOLP) and energy not
served (ENS). Fully develop cost and risk
metrcs of varous LOLP and ENS criteria.
8. For the next planning cycle, consider the
impact of forced early retirements of
existing coal plants, or retrofits necessar
to reduce their CO2 emissions, under
strn ent carbon re lation scenaros.
9. Purue refinement of CO2 emissions
modeling to improve treatment of
compliance under varous regulatory
schemes, including assignent of
emissions rates to short-term market
transactions.
1. For the 2007 IR Update and next IR,
Pacific Power should model other
renewable resources in addition to wind.
2. For the next IR, Pacific Power should
rank portfolios based on the 95th
Percentile and Upper-Tail PVR risk
metrics, and explain any inconsistencies
between ortfolios that ran hi hest
intermediate-term market purchase
resources for modeling puroses. The
company received no intermediate-term
market purchase bids; therefore, such
resources could not be reasonably modeled
for this IR. (See Chapter 6, "Resource
tions
PacifiCorp designed a portfolio analysis to
address this requirement, estimating a
system-wide had cap based on Oregon's
HB 3543 emission reduction goals. The
company corrected a deficiency with the
analysis pointed out by OPUC staff
(assigning an emission rate to market
purchases). A description of this portfolio
scenario ("case 40") is provided in Chapter
7; modeling results are provided in Chapter
8.
See the sections in Chapter 8 discussing the
LOLP and ENS modeling results.
PacifiCorp wil investigate fuctionality in
the company's capacity expansion
optimization model (System Optimizer) to
apply an LOLP constraint. This activity is
identified in Action Plan item no. 9,
Planin Process 1m rovements.
Forced early retirement is discussed in
Chapter 9 under Managing Carbon Risk for
Existing Plants. The option of retrofits is a
resource option in the portfolio development
rocess.
PacifiCorp is implementing System
Optimizer capacity expansion model
enhancements for improved representation
of CO2 and RPS regulatory requirements at
the jursdictional leveL. This activity is
identified in Action Plan item no. 9,
Planning Process Improvements.
Development of this functionality was
complicated and could not be completed in
time for this IRP.
PacifiCorp included geothermal, biomass,
solar, and hydrokinetic technologies as
resource options in portfolio modeling. See
Chapter 6 "Resource Options" and Chapter
7 "Modeling and Portolio Evaluation
A roach".
PacifiCorp reports the 95th Percentile and
Upper-Tail PVRR metrcs, along with a new
measure called risk-adjusted PVRR, which
was used for "2012 Base-load RFP" bid
evaluation. The risk ex osure measure was
232
............................................
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
Order No. 08-232,
LC-42, p. 37
according to these measures and the
Company's preferred portfolio.
3. For the next IR, in response to
concers noted in this order, Pacific
Power should fuer analyze and discuss
the use of hedging, the level of short-term
market purchases, projected load growth,
modeling of resources to meet loads in the
later years of the planing horizon, capital
cost risks and assumed economic lives of
coal plants, and the appropriate level of
distributed generation.
dropped from the IRP. See Chapters 7 and 8
for descriptions of the risk measures and the
portfolio raning process, respectively.
For portfolio ranking puroses,
incorporation of the risk-adjusted PVRR in
the preference scoring process addresses the
requirement to reflect an upper-tail risk
measure in portfolio ranking. However,
Table B.23 in the Appendix volume shows
an alternate ranking scheme where the
upper-tail mean PVRR is included as a
separate performance measure and given an
importce weight nearly as large as the
mean PVR. This alternate ranking scheme
is applied to the final 10 portfolios
considered for referred ortfolio selection.
. Hedging is addressed in Chapter 9.
. PacifiCorp modeled market purchases
based on several forward price futues
(low, medium, high), and applying
forward price cures developed at two
points in time (See Chapter 7)
. PacifiCorp modeled alternative load
growt scenaros, and conducted
portfolio analysis with two load forecasts
developed in November 2008 and
Februar 2009
. Resources, other than "growth
resources", were allowed as model
options for capacity expansion modeling
(See Chapter 7)
. PacifiCorp included 10-year capital costs
as a portfolio performance evaluation
measure, and developed a portfolio
assumng a 20% increase in capital costs
. Distributed generation resources (CHP
and customer standby generation) were
included as resource options in all
portfolios modeled; the appropriate level
of distributed generation is addressed in
item no. 9 of the IR action plan
Cha ter 9
UT-07-2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 13
We direct the Company, in its
next IRP process, to convene a public
input meeting or technical workgroup
session to review its approach to load
forecast varation and to address the issue
of load forecast error risk. This discussion
must include the Committee's concerns
PacifiCorp held a load forecasting technical
workshop on June 26, 2008.
PacifiCorp attended two meetings with Utah
paries to discuss various IRP and load
forecasting issues (April 9 and May 14,
2008.
233
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance ............................................
regarding use of 30-year normal
temperatues for estimating peak demand,
the number of year relied upon for
developing stochastic pareter, and the
role of planning reserve in managing the
risks of forecast error.
UT-07-2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 16
UT-07-2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 17
UT -07-2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 23
UT -07-2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 13
UT-07-2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 13
UT -07 -2035-01,
Report & Order, 2-
6-08, p. 13
We direct the Company to continue to
study the tradeoffs in planing to different
planing reserve tagets in futue IRs.
We direct the Company to adess (the
issue of hydro capacity accounting) in its
next IRP. For example, it may be useful to
conduct sensitivity analysis regarding this
assumption to identify potential risks or
shortcomigs of (using the sustainable
one-hour peak capacity method applied for
the 2007 IRP
We direct the Company to evaluate a full
spectrm of supply-side and demand-side
options which have different
characteristics regardig size,
dispatchability, expected cost, expected
risks and lead time for constrction.
Modeling limitations will need to be
addressed.
We direct the Company to host a public
input meeting or techncal workgrup to
examine the reasonableness of the range of
CO2 adders for evaluating caron
regulation risk and risk mitigating resource
strate ies.
We direct the Company to consider the
following three-step approach for
developing its optiml portfolio: 1)
Identify optimal portfolios for a relatively
broad, and consistently applied, set of
input assumptions; 2) subject all of these
optimal portfolios to stochastic risk
analysis and identify superor optimal
portfolios with respect to the tradeoff
between expected cost and risk exposure;
3) examine the cost consequences of the
superior portfolios with respect to
uncertainty by subjecting them to
evaluation under the initial
set of relativel broad in ut assum tions.
We direct the Company, with public input,
to develop a manageable set of potential
futue conditions, defmed by a consistently
applied set of input assumptions, and to
develo a set of 0 timal ortolios
PacifiCorp's planing reserve margin
analysis is sumarized in Chapter 8.
This requirement is addressed in Chapter 5,
Resource Needs Assessment, in the
discussion on hydro resources.
See Chapter 5 "Resource Options" for a
description of the expanded number of
resources included in portfolio modeling.
PacifiCorp held a public input meeting on
modeling C02 regulations (including
specification of CO2 adders) on June 26,
2008.
See Chapter 7 "Modeling and Portfolio
Evaluation Approach". This thee-step
approach was implemented for this IR. The
assessment of the value of step 3 is provided
in Chapter 8.
PacifiCorp has complied with this directive,
and sought public input on the specification
of input assumption scenarios at several
public meeting durg2008. The company
initiall develo ed 47 in ut assum tion
234
............................................
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
consistent with these sets of conditions.scenarios ("cases"), developed resource
portfolios optimized according to these
scenaros, and subjected these portfolios to
stochastic (Monte Carlo) production cost
simulation. The company subsequently
developed another 10 portfolios accounting
for the removal of the Lake Side 2
combined-cycle plant as a planed resource
in 2012, and using a consistent set of input
cases to do so (the cases that yielded the
ori inal to - erformin ortfolios.
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 1
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 1
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 2
PacifiCorp does need to identify and better
support significant changes it makes to
base demand projections relative to
previous IRPs. For example, no
explanation is given as to why this IR cut
the expected demand growth in
Washin ton b 50 ercent.
The company should also improve the
presentation of its two-year action plan.
The Commission expects the company to
use the Quantec estimates as the basis for
its conservation program achievement
objective rather than the one included in
the IR.
See Chapter 5 "Resource Needs
Assessment" and Chapter 8 for details on
the load forecasts used. The company held
several conference calls with public
staeholders describing the reason for load
forecast adjustments having to do with
recession im acts.
The company has provided more detail in
the IRP action plan, included an acquisition
path analysis, and addressed several
resource risk management topics not
addressed in revious IRPs. See cha ter 9.
PacifiCorp developed energy effciency
supply curves based on the Cadmus Group
(previously Quantec LLP) potentials
information. See the discussion on supply
cure development in Chapter 6. These
supply cures served as resource options in
the ca aci ex ansion modeL.
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 2
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 3
In its next plan, the company needs to
better explain how it chose the
transmission options to study, the process
used to integrate the selection of both new
generating resources and transmission
expansions/enhancements, and how the
transmission expansion wil affect system
operation, dispatch of resources and the
flow of electricity throughout PacifiCorp's
service terrto .
Therefore, we remind the company that
any baseload resources put in service after
June 30, 2008 to serve Washington
customers, or any transmission that allows
the output of such resources to reach
Washington must comply with this state's
statuto re uirements.
PacifiCorp included a new "Transmission
planning" chapter (Chapter 4), and included
a separate trsmission expansion action
plan in Chapter 9.
PacifiCorp wil follow state statutory
requirements for delivery of energy to
Washington.
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Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 3
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 4
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. 4
Letter Order, UE-
071062, p. I
What is unclear from this discussion is
how PacifiCorp wil determne when a
revision in the planing magin is
waranted. PacifiCorp needs to identify the
metrcs it wil use or the processes it wil
monitor that could lead the company to
alter its new planing margin.
As part of its next plan, PacifiCorp should
more thoroughly explain why its preferred
portfolio provides greater benefits and/or
is lower risk than the alternative portfolios.
PacifiCorp should derive avoided cost for
transmission and distrbution resources.
These avoided costs wil guide generators
or suppliers as they determne if they can
supply electrcity below the company's
avoided cost.
The action plan needs to provide much
more specific information regardig the
actul steps the company wil tae to
complete the identified action items.
PacifiCorp wil investigate the use of a
LOLP capacity constraint in its capacity
expansion model to supplement the curent
planing reserve margin approach (See
Chapter 9, action item no. 9). Development
of a process to modify planning reserve
margins has thus been put on hold.
PacifiCorp is also monitoring WECC
resource supply adequacy criteria for
ossible im lications to the IR.
See chapter 8 for an in-depth discussion on
the merits and disadvantages of the
preferred portfolio relative to other top-
performing portfolios.
PacifiCorp incorporated a T &D investment
deferrl cost credit to demand-side
management program costs.
The IRP action plan provides more detail on
procurement approaches for resources
identified in the IRP preferred portfolio (See
Table 9.2 in Chapter 9).
The Wyoming Commission provided the following comment:
Pursuant to open meeting action taken on January 11,2008, PacifCorp d/b/a Rocky Mountain Power's 2007
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is hereby placed in the Commission's files. No further action wil be taken and
this docketed matter is closed
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Table C.3 - Oregon Public Utilty Commission IRP Standard and Guidelines
L.a.l All resources must be evaluated on a consistent and
comparable basis:
All known resources for meeting the utility's load
should be considered, including supply-side
options which focus on the generation, purchase
and transmission of power - or gas purchases,
transportation, and storage - and demand-side
options which focus on conservation and demand
response.
L.a.2 All resources must be evaluated on a consistent and
comparable basis:
Utilities should compare different resource fuel
tyes, technologies, lead times, in-service dates,
durations and locations in portfolio risk modeling.
l.a.3 All resources must be evaluated on a consistent and
comparable basis:
Consistent assumptions and methods should be
used for evaluation of all resources.
l.a.4 All resources must be evaluated on a consistent and
comparable basis:
The after-tax marginal weighted-average cost of
capital (WACC) should be used to discount all
futue resource costs.
Risk and uncertinty must be considered:
At a minimum, utilities should address the
following sources of risk and uncertinty:
1. Electrc utilities: load requirements,
hydroelectrc generation, plant forced outages, fuel
prices, electrcity prices, and costs to comply with
any regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.
Risk and uncertainty must be considered: Utilities
should identitY in their plans any additional
sources of risk and uncertinty.
L.b.l
1.b.2
PacifiCorp considered a wide range of resources
including renewables, demand-side management,
distributed generation, energy storage, power
purchases, thermal resources, and transmission.
Chapters 6 and 7 document how PacifiCorp
developed these resources and modeled them in its
portfolio analysis. All these resources were
established as resource options in the company's
capacity expansion optimization model, and selected
by the model based on relative economics, resource
size, availability dates, and other factors.
All portfolios developed with the capacity expansion
optimization model were subjected to Monte Carlo
production cost simulation. These portfolios
contained a varety of resource tyes with different
fuel types (coal, gas, biomass, nuclear fuel, "no fuel"
renewables), lead-times (ranging from front office
transactions to nuclear plants), in-service dates, life-
times, and locations.
PacifiCorp fully complies with this requirement. The
company developed generic supply-side resource
attrbutes based on a consistent characterization
methodology. For demand-side resources, the
company used the Cadmus Group's supply cure data
for representation of DSM and distrbuted generation
resources, which was also based on a consistently
applied methodology for determining technical,
market, and achievable DSM potentials. All portfolio
resources were evaluated using. the same sets of price
and load forecast inputs. These inputs are
documented in Chapters 6 and 7.
PacifiCorp applied its after-tax W ACC of 7.4 percent
to discount all cost streams.
PacifiCorp fully complies with this requirement. Each
of the sources of risk identified in this guideline is
treated as a stochastic variable in Monte Carlo
production cost simulation. See the stochastic
modeling methodology section in Chapter 7.
PacifiCorp complied with this guideline by discussing
resource risk mitigation in Chapter 9. Topics covered
include: (1) managing carbon risk for existing plants,
(2) the use of physical and financial hedging for
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
Lc
Lc.1
LC.2
Lc.3.1
Lc.3.2
l.cA
Ld
The primar goal must be the selection of a
portfolio of resources with the best combination of
expected costs and associated risks and
uncertainties for the utility and its customers ("best
cost/risk portfolio").
The planing horizon for analyzing resource
choices should be at least 20 years and account for
end effects. Utilities should consider all costs with
a reasonable likelihood of being included in rates
over the long term, which extends beyond the
planing horizon and the life of the resource.
Utilities should use present value of revenue
requirement (PVRR) as the key cost metrc. The
plan should include analysis of curent and
estimated futue costs for all long-lived resources
such as power plants, gas storage facilities, and
pipelines, as well as all short-lived resources such
as gas supply and short-term power purchases.
To address risk, the plan should include, at a
minimum:
I. Two measures of PVR risk: one that measures
the variability of costs and one that measures the
severity of bad outcomes.
To address risk, the plan should include, at a
minimum:
2. Discussion of the proposed use and impact on
costs and risks of physical and financial hedging.
The utility should explain in its plan how its
resource choices appropriately balance cost and
risk.
The plan must be consistent with the long-ru
public interest as expressed in Oregon and federal
energy policies.
electrcity price risk, and (3) managing gas supply
risk. Regulatory and financial management risks
associated with a large capital expenditue program
were highlighted in several areas thoughout the IR
document.
PacifiCorp evaluated cost/risk tradeoffs for each of
the portolios considered, significantly expanding its
representation of CO2 cost risk and implementing a
multi-measure portfolio preference ranking scheme.
See Chapter 8 for the company's portfolio risk
analysis and determination of the preferred portfolio.
PacifiCorp used a 20-year study period for portfolio
modeling, and a real levelized revenue requirement
methodology for treatment of end effects consistent
with past IR practice.
PacifiCorp fully complies. Chapter 7 provides a
description of the PVR methodology.
PacifiCorp uses the standad deviation of stochastic
production costs as the measure of cost varability.
For the severity of bad outcomes, the company
calculates several measures, including stochastic
upper-tal PVR (mean of highest five Monte Carlo
iterations) and the 95th percentile stochastic PVRR.
A discussion on costs and risks of physical and
financial hedging is provided in Chapter 9.
Chapter 8 sumarizes the results of PacifiCorp' s
cost/risk treoff analysis, and describes what criteria
the company used to determine the best cost/risk
portfolios and the preferred portfolio.
PacifiCorp considered both curent and expected state
and federal energy policies in portfolio modeling.
Chapter 7 describes the decision process used to
derive portfolios, which includes consideration of
state resource policies. The IR action plan chapter
also presents an acquisition path analysis that
describes resource strategies based on regulatory
trgger events.
2.a The public, which includes other utilties, should
be allowed significant involvement in the
preparation of the IR. Involvement includes
PacifiCorp fully complies with this requirement.
Chapter 2 provides an overview of the public process,
while Appendix D documents the details on public
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
opportities to contrbute information and ideas,
as well as to receive information. Paries must have
an opportnity to make relevant inquiries of the
utility formulating the plan. Disputes about
whether information requests are relevant or
uneasonably burdensome, or whether a utility is
being properly responsive, may be submitted to the
Commission for resolution.
2.b While confidential information must be protected,
the utility should make public, in its plan, any non-
confidential information that is relevant to its
resource evaluation and action plan. Confidential
information may be protected through use of a
protective order, through aggregation or shielding
of data, or through any other mechanism approved
by the Commission.
2.c The utility must provide a drft IRP for public
review and comment prior to fiing a final plan
with the Commission.
meetings held for the 2008 IRP.
Both IRP volumes provide non-confidential
information the company used for portfolio
evaluation, as well as other data requested by
stakeholders. PacifiCorp also provided stakeholders
with non-confidential information to support public
meeting discussions via emaiL.
PacifiCorp distrbuted a draft IRP document for
external review on April 8, 2009.
3.a A utility must file an IRP within two years of its
previous IRP acknowledgment order. If the utility
does not intend to take any significant resource
action for at least two years after its next IRP is
due, the utility may request an extension of its
filing date from the Commission.
3.b The utility must present the results of its fied plan
to the Commission at a public meeting prior to the
deadline for written public comment.
3.c Commission staff and paries should complete their
comments and recommendations within six months
of IRP fiing.
3.d The Commission wil consider comments and
recommendations on a utility's plan at a public
meeting before issuing an order on
acknowledgment. The Commission may provide
the utility an opportity to revise the plan before
issuing an acknowledgment order.
3.e The Commission may provide direction to a utility
regarding any additional analyses or actions that
the utility should undertake in its next IRP.
3.f Each utility must submit an annual update on its
most recently acknowledged plan. The update is
due on or before the acknowledgment order
aniversary date. Once a utility anticipates a
significant deviation from its acknowledged IRP, it
must fie an update with the Commission, unless
the utility is within six months of fiing its next
IR. The utility must sumarize the update at a
Commission public meeting. The utility may
This Plan complies with this requirement.
PacifiCorp wil adhere to this guideline.
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
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PaciffCorp - 20081RP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
request acknowledgment of changes in proposed
actions identified in an update.
3.g Unless the utility requests acknowledgement of
changes in proposed actions, the anual update is
an informational fiing that:
1. Describes what actions the utility has taen to
implement the plan;
2. Provides an assessment of what has changed
since the acknowledgment order that afects the
action plan, including changes in such factors as
load, expiration of resource contracts, supply-side
and demand-side resource acquisitions, resource
costs, and transmission availabilty; and
3. Justifies any deviations from the acknowledged
action plan.
Not applicable
4.a An explanation of how the utility met each ofthe
substantive and procedural requirements
4.b Analysis of high and low load growt scenaros in
addition to stochastic load risk analysis with an
explanation of major assumptions
4.c For electric utilities, a determination of the levels
of peaking capacity and energy capability expected
for each year of the plan, given existing resources;
identification of capacity and energy needed to
bridge the gap between expected loads and
resources; modeling of all existing transmission
rights, as well as futue transmission additions
associated with the resource portfolios tested
4.d For gas utilities only
4.e Identification and estimated costs of all supply-side
and demand side resource options, tag into
account anticipated advances in technology
4.f Analysis of measures the utility intends to tae to
provide reliable service, including cost-risk
tradeoffs
4.g Identification of key assumptions about the futue
(e.g., fuel prices and environmental compliance
The purpose of this table is to comply with this
guideline.
PacifiCorp developed low, medium, and high load
growth forecasts for scenario analysis using the
System Optimizer model for portfolio development.
Stochastic varability of loads was also captued in
the risk analysis. See Chapters 5 and 8, and Appendix
E, for load forecast information. Chapter 8 also
describes how loads are handled in the stochastic
modeling.
This Plan complies with the requirement. See Chapter
5 for details on anual capacity and energy balances.
Existing transmission rights are reflected in the IR
model topologies, as mentioned in Chapter 7.
Not applicable
Chapter 6 identifies the resources included in this
IR, and provides their detailed cost and performance
attbutes. See Tables 6.2 though 6.10 for supply-
side resources, and Tables 6.15 through 6.20 for
demand-side resources.
In addition to incorporating a planning reserve margin
for all portfolios evaluated, the company used several
measures to evaluate relative portfolio supply
reliability. These are described in Chapter 7 (Energy
Not Served and Loss of Load Probability). PacifiCorp
conducted a sensitivity study to determne the
cost/risk trdeoff of different planning reserve margin
levels. This study is documented in Chapter 8.
Chapter 7 descrbes the key assumptions and
alternative scenaros used in this IR.
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costs) and alternative scenarios considered
4.h Constrction of a representative set of resource
portfolios to test various operating characteristics,
resource tyes, fuels and sources, technologies,
lead times, in-service dates, durations and general
locations - system-wide or delivered to a specific
portion of the system
4.i Evaluation of the performance of the candidate
portfolios over the range of identified risks and
uncertinties
4.j Results of testing and ran orderig of the
portfolios by cost and risk metrc, and
interpretation of those results.
4.k Analysis of the uncertinties associated with each
portfolio evaluated.
4.1 Selection of a portfolio that represents the best
combination of cost and risk for the utility and its
customers.
4.m Identification and explanation of any
inconsistencies of the selected portfolio with any
state and federal energy policies that may affect a
utility's plan and any bariers to implementation.
An action plan with resource activities the utility
intends to undertake over the next two to four years
to acquire the identified resources, regardless of
whether the activity was acknowledged in a
previous IR, with the key attributes of each
resource specified as in portfolio testing.
This Plan documents the development and results of
57 portfolios designed to determine resource selection
under a variety of input assumptions (Chapter 8).
Chapter 8 presents the stochastic portfolio modeling
results, and describes portfolio attributes that explain
relative differences in cost and risk performance.
Chapter 8 provides tables and chars with
performance measure results, including ran ordering.
PacifiCorp fully complies with this guideline. See the
responses to I .b. I and l.b.2 above.
See I.c above.
This IR is presumed to have no inconsistencies.
Chapters 9 and 10 presents the 2008 IRP and
transmission expansion action plans, respectively.
5 Portfolio analysis should include costs to the utility
for the fuel transportation and electrc transmission
required for each resource being considered. In
addition, utilities should consider fuel
trnsportation and electric transmission facilities as
resource options, takng into account their value for
making additional purchases and sales, accessing
less costly resources in remote locations, acquiring
altemative fuel supplies, and improving reliability.
PacifiCorp evaluated proxy transmission resources on
a comparable basis with respect to other proxy
resources in this IRP. Fuel trsportation costs were
factored into resource costs.
6.a Each utility should ensure that a conservation
potential study is conducted periodically for its
entire service terrtory.
6.b To the extent that a utility controls the level of
fuding for conservation programs in its service
terrtory, the utility should include in its action plan
all best cost/risk portfolio conservation resources
for meeting projected resource needs, specifying
anual savings targets.
6.c To the extent that an outside part administers
A multi-state demand-side maagement potentials
study was completed in June 2007, and those results
were incorporated into this plan.
PacifiCorp's energy efficiency supply curves
incorporate Oregon resource potentiaL. Oregon
potential estimates were provided by the Energy Trust
of Oregon. See Chapter 6, "Class 2 DSM, Capacity
Supply Cures"
See the response for 6.b above.
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.PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
conservation programs in a utility's service
territory at a level of fuding that is beyond the
utility's control, the utility should:
I. Determine the amount of conservation resources
in the best cost/risk portfolio without regard to
any limits on fuding of conservation
program; and
2. Identify the preferred portfolio and action plan
consistent with the outside part's projection of
conservation acquisition.
7 Plans should evaluate demand response resources,
including voluntary rate programs, on par with
other options for meeting energy, capacity, and
trasmission needs (for electrc utilities) or gas
supply and transporttion needs (for natual gas
utilities).
PacifiCorp evaluated demand response resources
(Class 3 DSM) on a consistent basis with other
resources in a portfolio study, and simulated the
portfolio containing class 3 DSM resources using its
stochastic production cost model (Chapter 8). Class 3
DSM progrs are addressed in Item 7 of the IRP
action plan in Chapter 9.
8 a. Base Case and Other Compliance
Scenarios
b. Testing Alternative Portolios Against the
Compliance Scenarios
c. Trigger Point Analysis
d. Oregon Compliance Portfolio
This IR fully complies with the CO2 compliance
cost analysis requirements in Order No. 08-339.
Pedormance results for CO2 compliance scenario
portfolios are reported in Chapter 8, as well as an
Oregon compliance scenaro (See Table C.2).
Chapter 9 presents a discussion on "whether a CO2
regulatory futue that is equally or more strngent
than the identified trgger point wil be mandated" as
required in Guideline 8c.
10 Multi-state utilities should plan their generation
and transmission systems, or gas supply and
delivery, on an integrated system basis that
achieves a best cost/risk portfolio for all their retail
customers.
The 2008 IR conforms to the multi-state planning
approach as stated in Chapter 2.
i I Electric utilities should analyze reliability within
the risk modeling of the actual portfolios being
considered. Loss of load probability, expected
planing reserve margin, and expected and worst-
case unserved energy should be determed by year
for top-pedorming portfolios. Natural gas utilities
should analyze, on an integrated basis, gas supply,
transporttion, and storage, along with demand-
side resources, to reliably meet peak, swing, and
base-load system requirements. Electrc and natual
PacifiCorp fully complies with this guideline. See the
response to l.c.3.1 above. Chapter 8 describes the
role of reliabilty, cost, and risk measures in
determining the preferred portfolio. Scatter plots of
portolio cost versus risk at different CO2 cost adder
levels were used to inform the cost/risk tradeoff
analysis. (Chapter 8).
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12 Electrc utilities should evaluate distrbuted
generation technologies on par with other supply-
side resources and should consider, and quantify
where possible, the additional benefits of
distrbuted generation.
PacifiCorp evaluated several tyes of distrbution
generation, including combined heat and power and
customer-owned standby generation. The results of
these evaluations are documented in Chapter 8.
B.a An electrc utility should, in its IRP:Chapter 9 outlines the procurement approaches for
resources identified in the preferred portfolio.
1. Identify its proposed acquisition strategy for
each resource in its action plan.
2. Assess the advantages and disadvantages of
owning a resource instead of purchasing power
from another part
3. Identify any Benchmark Resources it plans to
consider in competitive bidding
B.b For gas utilities only
A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of
owning a resource instead of purchasing it is included
in Chapter 9.
Company resources included in RFPs is addressed in
the action plan (Table 9.2 and accompanying
nartive).
Not applicable
Table C.4~ Utah Public Service Commission IRP Standard and Guidelines
1 The Commission has the legal authority to
promulgate Standards and Guidelines for
integrated resource planing.
Information Exchange is the most reasonable
method for developing and implementing
integrated resource planing in Utah.
Prdence Reviews of new resource acquisitions
will occur during ratemaking proceedings.
PacifiCorp's integrated resource planing process
wil be open to the public at all stages. The
Commission, its staff, the Division, the Commttee,
appropriate Utah state agencies, and other
interested paries can participate. The Commission
wil pursue a more active-directive role if deemed
necessar, after formal review of the planing
process.
Consideration of environmental externalities and
attendant costs must be included in the integrated
resource planing analysis.
2
3
4
5
Not addressed; this is a Utah Public Service
Commission responsibility
Information exchange ha been conducted thoughout
the IRP process.
Not addressed; ratemaking occur outside of the IRP
process
PacifiCorp's public process is described in Chapter 2.
A record of public meetings is provided as Appendix
D.
PacifiCorp used a scenaro analysis approach along
with externality cost adders to model environmental
externality costs. See Chapter 7 for a description of
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PacifìCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
6 The integrated resource plan must evaluate supply-
side and demand-side resources on a consistent and
comparable basis.
7 A voided Cost should be determined in a maner
consistent with the Company's Integrated Resource
Plan.
the methodology employed, including how C02 cost
uncertinty is factored into the determination of
relative portfolio performance.
Supply, transmission, and demand-side resources
were evaluated on a comparable basis using
PacifiCorp's capacity expansion optimization modeL.
Also see the response to number 4.b.ii below.
Consistent with the Uta rules, PacifiCorp
determation of avoided costs wil be handled in a
maner consistent with the IRP, with the caveat that
the costs may be updated ifbetter information
becomes available.
8 The planning standads and guidelines must meet
the needs of the Utah service area, but since
coordination with other jursdictions is importt,
must not ignore the rules governing the planing
process already in place in other jursdictions.
9 The Company's Strategic Business Pla must be
directly related to its Integrated Resource Plan.
This IRP was developed in consultation with paries
from all state jursdictions, and meets all formal state
IR gudelines.
Chapter 2 outlines the IRlbusiness plan alignent
effort that was initiated in 2008 and wil continue
though 2009. Chapter 9 also describes recent
IRlbusiness planing alignent activities associated
with selection of a preferred portfolio.
Definition: Integrated resource planing is a utility
planing process which evaluates all known
resources on a consistent and comparable basis, in
order to meet current and futue customer electrc
energy services needs at the lowest total cost to the
utility and its customers, and in a maner
consistent with the long-ru public interest. The
process should result in the selection of the optimal
set of resources given the expected combination of
costs, risk and uncertinty.
2 The Company wil submit its Integrated Resource
Plan biennially.
PacifiCorp implemented a highly transparent
portfolio preference scoring methodology that
incorporates numerous portfolio performance
measures and considers CO2 cost uncertinty in the
portfolio rang process.
This IRP also addresses concerns expressed by Uta
staeholders and the Uta commission concerning
comprehensiveness of resources considered,
consistency in applying input assumptions for
portfolio modeling, and explanation ofPacifiCorp's
decision process for selecting top-performing
portfolios and the preferred portfolio.
The company submitted its last IRP on May 30,2007,
and fied this IR on May 29, 2009. PacifiCorp
planed to file the IR with all commissions on
March 3 I in each odd-numbered year. However, the
Lake Side 2 decision prompted the company to revise
the IR accordingly, including conducting additional
portfolio analysis.
3 IRP wil be developed in consultation with the
Commission, its staff, the Division of Public
Utilities, the Committee of Consumer Services,
appropriate Utah state agencies and interested
PacifiCorp's public process is described in Chapter 2.
A record of public meetings is provided as Appendi
D.
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4.a
4.a.i
4.a.ii
4.b
4.b.i
4.b.ii
4.b.iii
paries. PacifiCorp wil provide ample opportnity
for public input and information exchange during
the development of its Plan.
PacifiCorp's integrated resource plans wil include:
a range of estimates or forecasts of load growth,
including both capacity (kW) and energy (kWh)
requirements.
The forecasts wil be made by jursdiction and by
general class and wil differentiate energy and
capacity requirements. The Company wil include
in its forecasts all on-system loads and those off-
system loads which they have a contractual
obligation to fulfill. Non-firm off-system sales are
uncertin and should not be explicitly incorporated
into the load forecast that the utility then plans to
meet. However, the Plan must have some analysis
of the off-system sales market to assess the impacts
such markets wil have on risks associated with
different acquisition strategies.
Analyses of how various economic and
demographic factors, including the prices of
electricity and alternative energy sources, wil
affect the consumption of electrc energy services,
and how changes in the number, tye and
efficiency of end-uses wil affect futue loads.
An evaluation of all present and futue resources,
including future market opportities (both
demand-side and supply-side), on a consistent and
comparable basis.
An assessment of all technically feasible and cost-
effective improvements in the effcient use of
electricity, including load management and
conservation.
An assessment of all technically feasible
generating technologies including: renewable
resources, cogeneration, power purchases from
other sources, and the constrction of thermal
resources.
The resource assessments should include: life
expectacy of the resources, the recognition of
whether the resource is replacing/adding capacity
or energy, dispatchabilty, lead-time requirements,
flexibility, efficiency of the resource and
PacifiCorp implemented a load forecast range for
both capacity expansion optimization scenarios as
well as for stochastic short-term and long-term
varability. Details concerning the load forecasts used
in the 2008 IRP are provided in Chapters 5 and 8, and
Appendix E. Figues 7.3 and 7.4 in Chapter 7 show
the range of forecasts used for capacity expansion
modeling. Figues 7.22 through 7.26 show the range
of stochastic loads modeled for each load area by the
Monte Carlo production cost simulations.
Price risk associated with market sales is captured in
the company's stochastic simulation results. Curent
off-system sales agreements are included in the IRP
models.
Chapter 5 documents how demographic and price
factors are used in PacifiCorp's new load forecasting
methodology.
Resources were evaluated on a consistent and
comparable basis using the System Optimizer model
and Planing and Risk production cost modeL.
PacifiCorp included supply cures for Class I DSM
(dispatchable/schedulable load control) and Class 2
DSM (energy efficiency measures) in its capacity
expansion modeL. Details are provided in Chapter 6.
PacifiCorp considered a wide range of resources
including renewables, cogeneration (combined heat
and power), customer standby generation, power
purchases, thermal resources, energy storage, and
transmission. Chapters 6 and 7 document how
PacifiCorp developed and assessed these
technologies.
PacifiCorp captues and models these resource
attbutes in its IR models. Resources are defined as
providing capacity, energy, or both. The DSM supply
cures and distrbuted generation resources used for
portfolio modeling explicitly incorporate estimated
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C - IRP Regulatory Compliance
opportities for customer paricipation.
4.c An analysis ofthe role of competitive bidding for
demand-side and supply-side resource acquisitions
4.d A 20-year planing horizon.
4.e An action plan outlning the specific resource
decisions intended to implement the integrted
resource plan in a maner consistent with the
Company's strategic business plan. The action plan
wil span a four-year horizon and wil describe
specific actions to be taen in the first two year
and outline actions anticipated in the last two
years. The action plan wil include a status report
of the specific actions contained in the previous
action plan.
4.f A plan of different resource acquisition paths for
different economic circumstaces with a decision
mechanism to select among and modify these paths
as the futue unfolds.
4.g An evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of the
resoure options from the perspectives of the utility
and the different classes of ratepayers. In addition,
a description of how social concerns might affect
cost effectiveness estimates of resource options.
4.h An evaluation of the financial, competitive,
reliability, and operational risks associated with
various resource options and how the action plan
addresses these risks in the context of both the
Business Plan and the 20-year Integrated Resource
Plan. The Company wil identify who should bear
such risk, the ratepayer or the stockholder.
rates of program and event paricipation.
Dispatchability is accounted for in both IRP models
used; however, the Planning and Risk model provides
a more detailed representation of unit dispatch than
System Optimizer, and includes modeling of unit
commitment and reserves.
A descrption of the role of competitive bidding and
other procurement methods is provided in Chapter 9.
This IR uses a 20-year study horizon (2009-2028)
The IR action plan is provided in Chapter 9. As
mentioned in the chapter, the major preferred
portfolio resources were evaluated for financial and
rate impacts by the PacifiCorp Energy Finance
Deparent in alignent with business planning
protocols. A status report of the actions outlined in
the previous action plan (2007 IRP update) is
provided in Chapter 9 as well.
The action plan (Table 9.2) also identifies actions
anticipated to extend beyond the next two years, or
occur after the next two years
Chapter 9 includes an acquisition path analysis that
presents broad resource strategies based on regulatory
trgger events, combinations of load growt and gas
price futues, and procurement delays.
The decision mechanism for pursuing the resource
strtegies is the outcome of the anual business
planning process, which wil be informed by portfolio
modeling using the IRP models and updated input
assumptions.
PacifiCorp provides resource-specific utility and total
resource cost information in Chapter 7.
The IRP document addresses the impact of social
concerns on resource cost-effectiveness in the
following ways:
. Portolios were evaluated using a range of CO2
cost futues
. A discussion of environmental policy status and
impacts on utilty resource planning is provided
in Chapter 3.
The handling of resource risks is discussed in Chapter
9, and covers the following topics: (1) managing
carbon risk for existing plants, (2) the use of physical
and fmancial hedging for electrcity price risk, and (3)
managing gas supply risk. Regulatory and financial
management risks associated with a large capital
expenditue program were highlighted in several
areas thoughout the IR, and in relation to IR and
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4.i Considerations permitting flexibility in the
planing process so that the Company can tae
advantage of opportities and can prevent the
prematue foreclosure of options.
4.j An analysis of tradeoffs; for example, between
such conditions of service as reliability and
dispatchabilty and the acquisition of lowest cost
resources.
4.k A range, rather than attempts at precise
quantification, of estimated external costs which
may be intangible, in order to show how explicit
consideration of them might affect selection of
resource options. The Company wil attempt to
quantify the magnitude of the externalities, for
example, in terms of the amount of emissions
released and dollar estimates of the costs of such
externalities.
4.1 A narative describing how curent rate design is
consistent with the Company's integrated resource
planing goals and how changes in rate design
might facilitate integrated resource planning
objectives.
5 PacifiCorp wil submit its IR for public comment,
review and acknowledgement.
6 The public, state agencies and other interested
paries wil have the opportity to make formal
comment to the Commission on the adequay of
the Plan. The Commission wil review the Plan for
adherence to the principles stated herein, and wil
judge the merit and applicability of the public
comment. If the Plan needs fuher work the
Commission wil retu it to the Company with
business plan alignent.
Resource capital cost uncertinty and technological
risk is addressed in Chapter 6 ("Handling.of
Technology Improvement Trends and Cost
Uncertinty").
For reliability risks, the stochastic simulation model
incorporates stochastic volatility of forced outages for
new thermal plants and hydro availability. These risks
are factored into the comparative evaluation of
portfolios and the selection of the preferred portfolio
upon which the action plan is based.
Identification of the classes of risk and how these
risks are allocated to ratepayers and investors is
discussed in Chapter 9.
Flexibility in the planning and procurement processes
is highlighted in Chapter 9 and the action plan (Table
9.2). In Chapter 8, PacifiCorp discusses how planing
flexibility came into play for the timing of preferred
portfolio resources such as wind.
PacifiCorp examined the trade-off between portfolio
cost and risk. This trde-off analysis is documented in
Chapter 8, and highlighted through the use of scatter
plot graphs showing the relationship between
expected and upper-tail stochastic PVRR.
PacifiCorp estimated environmental externality costs
for CO2, NOx, S02, and mercur with use of cost
adders and assumptions regarding the form of
compliance strategy (for example, cap-and-trade
versus a per-ton tax for CO2). For CO2 extemality
costs, the company used scenarios with various cost
adder levels to captue a reasonable range of cost
impacts. These adders are described in Chapter 7.
The role of Class 3 DSM (price response programs) at
PacifiCorp and how these resources are modeled in
the IRP are described in Chapter 6.
PacifiCorp distrbuted the draft IRP document for
public review and comment on April 8, 2009.
Not addressed; this is a post-filing activity.
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix C -IRP Regulatory Compliance
7
8
comments and suggestions for change. This
process should lead more quickly to the
Commission's acknowledgement of an acceptable
Integrated Resource Plan. The Company wil give
an oral presentation of its report to the Commssion
and all interested public paries. Formal hearngs
on the acknowledgement of the Integrted
Resource Plan might be appropriate but are not
required.
Acknowledgement of an acceptable Plan wil not Not addressed; this is not a PacifiCorp activity.
guarantee favorable ratemaking treatment of futue
resource acquisitions.
The Integrated Resource Plan wil be used in rate Not addressed; this refers to a post-fiing activity.
cases to evaluate the performance of the utility and
to review avoided cost calculations.
Table C.S - Washington Utilties and Trade Commission IRP Standard and Guidelines
(WAC 480-100-238)
(5)
(2)(a)
(2)(a)
(2)(a)
(4)Work plan fied no later than 12 months before
next IRP due date.
PacifiCorp fied the IRP work plan on January 18, 2008;
at that time, the anticipated IRP fiing date was Janua
20,2009.
See pages 1-2 of the Work Pla document for a
sumarzation of IR contents.
See pages 2-3 of the Work Plan document for a
sumarzation of resource analysis.
See Figue 2, page 6 of the Work Plan document for the
IR schedule.
The Commission issued an Order on December 11,
2008, under Docket no. UE-070l 17, granting the
Company permission to file its IRP on March 31 of each
odd numbered year. On March 26,2009, the
Commission granted PacifiCorp a temporar exemption
from the March 31st deadline allowing the Company to
file its 2008 integrted resource plan on May 29, 2009
Docket No. UE-08l475 .
Not applicable
Not applicable
Chapter 8 describes the 2008 IRP preferred portfolio.
For example, see Tables 8.44 and 8.45, aswell as
Fi es 8.29 and 8.30.
See Chapter 8, Tables 8.44 and 8.45, as well as Figures
8.29 and 8.30.
The 2008 IRP preferred portolio was based on a
resource needs assessment that accounted for forecasted
(4)
(4)
Work plan outlines content ofIR.
Work plan outlines method for assessing
potential resources. (See LRC analysis below)
Work plan outlines timing and extent of public
artici ation.
Integrated resource plan submitted within two
years of previous plan.
(5)
(4)
(5)Commission issues notice of public hearng after
company fies plan for review.
Commission holds public hearing.
Plan describes the mix of energy supply
resources.
Plan describes conservation supply.
Plan addresses supply in terms of curent and
futue needs.
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(2)(b)
(2)(b)
(2)(b)
(2)(b)
(2)(b)
(2)(b)
(2)(b)
Plan uses lowest reasonable cost (LRC) analysis
to select the mix of resources.
LRC analysis considers resource costs.
LRC analysis considers market-volatility risks.
LRC analysis considers demand side resource
uncertinties.
LRC analysis considers resource dispatchability.
LRC analysis considers resource effect on
system operation.
LRC analysis considers risks imposed on
ratepayers.
load growt, expiration of existing power purchase
contracts, resources under construction, contract, or
reflected in the Company's capital budget, as well as a
capacity planing reserve margin. Details on
PacifiCorp's findings of resource need are described in
Chapter 5. For example, see Table 5.20 for PacifiCorp's
ca aci load and resource balance.
PacifiCorp uses portfolio performance measures based
on the Present Value of Revenue Requirements (PVRR)
methodology. See the section on portfolio performance
measures in Cha ter 7.
Chapter 6, Resource Options, provides detailed
information on costs and other attrbutes for all
resources analyzed for the IR. For example, see Tables
6.2 thou h 6.10, 6.15 throu h 6.18, and 6.20.
PacifiCorp employs Monte Carlo production cost
simulation with a stochastic model to characterize
market price and gas price volatility. See the section
entitled, "Monte Carlo Production Cost Simulation" in
Cha ter 7 for a suma of the modelin a roach.
PacifiCorp captued demand-side resource uncertinties
through the development of numerous portfolios based
on different sets of in ut assum tions.
PacifiCorp uses two IRP models that simulate the
dispatch of existing and futue resources based on such
attributes as heat rate, availability, fuel cost, and
variable O&M cost. The chronological production cost
simulation model also incorporates unit commitment
logic for handling start-up, shutdown, ramp rates,
minimum up/down times, and ru up rates, and reserve
holdin characteristics of individual enerators.
PacifiCorp's IRP models simulate the operation of its
entire system, reflecting dispatch/unit commitment,
forced/unforced outages, access to markets, and system
reliabili and transmission constraints,
PacifiCorp explicitly models risk associated with
uncertin CO2 reguatory costs, wholesale electrcity and
natual gas price escalation and volatility, load growt
uncertinty, resource reliability, renewable portfolio
standard requirement uncertinty, plant constrction
cost escalation, and resource affordability. These risks
and uncertinties are handled through stochastic
modeling and scenarios depicting alternative futues.
In addition to risk modeling, the IRP discusses a number
of resource risk topics not addressed in the IRP system
simulation models. For example, Chapter 9 covers the
following topics: (1) managing carbon risk for existing
plants, (2) the use of physical and financial hedging for
electricity price risk, and (3) managing gas supply risk.
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(2)(b)
(2)(b)
(2)(c)
(3)(a)
(3)(a)
(3)(a)
(3)(b)
LRC analysis considers public policies
regarding resource preference adopted by
Washington state or federal goverent.
LRC analysis considers cost of nsks associated
with environmental effects including emissions
of carbon dioxide.
Plan defines conservation as any reduction in
electnc power consumption that results from
increases in the efficiency of energy use,
production, or distrbution.
Plan includes a range of forecasts of futue
demand.
Plan develops forecasts using methods that
examine the effect of economic forces on the
consumption of electncity.
Plan develops forecasts using methods that
address changes in the number, tye and
effciency of electrical end-uses.
Plan includes an assessment of commercially
available conservation, including load
management.
highlighted in several areas thoughout the IRP, and in
relation to IR and business Ian ali ent.
The IRP modeling incorporates resource expansion
constraints tied to renewable portfolio stadads (RPS)
curently in place for Washington, Oregon, California,
and Uta. (See Chapter 7, "Representation and
Modeling of Renewable Portfolio Standads", as well as
Appendix A for RPS compliance reports developed for
each resource portfolio assessed for the IRP). PacifiCorp
also evaluated vanous CO2 regulatory schemes,
includig a CO2 ta, hard cap, and cap-and-trade. Futue
modeling enhancements are planned for improved
re resentation of state-level resource re ulations.
A descnption ofPacifiCorp's modeling of CO2 cost risk
is provided in Chapter 7, "Carbon Dioxide Compliance
Strtegy and Costs". Chapter 9 also discusses the
implications of CO2 cost uncertainty on resource
ac uisition lans. See Table 9.3.
A descnption of how PacifiCorp classifies and defines
energy conservation is provided in Chapter 6, "Demand-
side Resources".
PacifiCorp implemented a load forecast range for both
capacity expanion optimization scenarios as well as for
stochastic short-term and long-term vanabilty. Details
concerning the load forecasts used in the 2008 IR are
provided in Chapters 5 and 8, and Appendix E. Figues
7.3 and 7.4 in Chapter 7 show the range offorecasts
used for capacity expansion modeling. Figues 7.22
though 7.26 show the range of stochastic loads modeled
for each load area by the Monte Carlo production cost
simulations.
PacifiCorp's load forecast methodology employs
econometrc forecasting techniques that include such
economic vanables as household income, employment,
and population. See Chapter 5, "Load Forecast", for a
descn tion of the load forecastin methodolo .
Residential sector load forecasts use a statistically-
adjusted end-use model that accounts for equipment
satuation rates and effciency. See Chapter 5, "Load
Forecast", for a descnption of the residential sector load
forecastin methodolo .
PacifiCorp conducte a comprehensive system-wide
demand-side management potential study in 2007,
which served as the basis for developing DSM resource
supply cures for resource portfolio modeling. The
supply cures account for technical and achievable
(market) potential, while the IR capacity expansion
model identifies a cost-effective mi of DSM resources
based on these limits and other model inputs. The DSM
potential study is posted on PacifiCorp's Web page:
htt://www.pacificom.comlArticle/ Aricle75535.html,
and has been rovided to the WUTC on a CD.
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(3)(b)
(3)(c)
(3)(d)
(3)(e)
(3)(f)
(3)(g)
(3)(h)
(5)
(5)
Plan includes an assessment of currently
employed and new policies and programs
needed to obtain the conservation
im rovements.
Plan includes an assessment of a wide range of
conventional and commercially available
nonconventional generating technologies.
Plan includes an assessment of transmission
system capability and reliability (as allowed by
curent law).
Plan includes a comparative evaluation of
energy supply resources (including transmission
and distrbution) and improvements in
conservation using LRC.
Demand forecasts and resource evaluations are
integrated into the long range plan for resource
acquisition.
Plan includes a two-year action plan that
im lements the Ion ran elan.
Plan includes a progress report on the
implementation of the previously fied plan.
Plan includes description of consultation with
commission staff. (Description not required)
Plan includes description of completion of work
plan. (Description not required)
A description of the curent status of DSM programs
and on-going activities to implement curent and new
programs is provided in Chapter 5, Resource Needs
Assessment "Existin Resources".
PacifiCorp considered a wide range of resources
including renewables, cogeneration (combined heat and
power), customer stadby generation, power purchases,
thermal resources, energy storage, and transmission.
Chapters 6 and 7 document how PacifiCorp developed
and assessed these technolo ies.
PacifiCorp modeled transmission system capability to
serve its load obligations, factoring in updates to the
representation of major load and generation centers,
regional transmission congestion impacts, importexport
availability, external market dynamics, and significant
transmission expansion plans (See the "Transmission
System Representation" section in Chapter 7). System
reliability given transmission capability was analyzed
using stochastic production cost simulation and
measures of insuffcient energy and capacity for a load
area (Energy Not Served and Unmet Capacity,
res ectivel .
PacifiCorp's capacity expansion optimization model
(System Optimizer) is designed to compare alternative
resources-including transmission expansion options-
for the least-cost resource mix. System Optimizer was
used to develop numerous resource portfolios for
comparative evaluation on the basis of cost, risk,
reliability, and other performance attibutes. The DSM
potentials study considered improvements in
conservation Distribution considered alternative
transmission ex ansion 0 tions.
PacifiCorp integrates demand forecasts, resources, and
system operations in the context of a system modeling
framework described in Chapter 7. Portfolio evaluation
covers a 20-year period (2009-2028). PacifiCorp
developed its preferred portfolio of resources judged to
be least-cost after considering load requirements, risk,
uncertinty, supply adequacy/reliability, and
governent resource policies in accordace with this
rule.
See Table 9.2, Chapter 9, for PacifiCorp's 2008 IRP
action Ian.
A status report on action plan implementation is
provided in the "Progress on Previous Action Plan
Items" section of Chapter 9.
Chapter 2 includes a sumar of the 2008 IR public
process, while Appendix D provides deals on specific
meetings held with Commission staff and the general
ublic.
Not applicable; the IRP schedule was modified to
accommodate significant planing events. See the
res onse to WAC 480-100-2384 .
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PacißCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix D - Public Input Process
APPENDIX D - PUBLIC INPUT PROCESS
A critical element of this resource plan is the public input process. PacifiCorp has pursued an
open and collaborative approach involving the Commissions, customers and other stakeholders
in PacifiCorp's planning process prior to making resource planning decisions. Since these
decisions can have significant economic and environmental consequences, conducting the
resource plan with transparency and full participation from Commissions and other interested
and affected parties is essentiaL.
The public has been involved in this resource plan from its earliest stages and at each decisive
step. Participants have both shared comments and ideas and received information. As reflected in
the report, many of the comments provided by the participants have been adopted by PacifiCorp
and have contrbuted to the quality of this resource plan. PacifiCorp wil adopt fuher comments
going forward, either as elements of the Action Plan or as future refinements to the planning
methodology.
The cornerstone of the public input process has been full-day public input meetings held
approximately throughout the year-long plan development period. These meetings have been
held jointly in two locations-Salt Lake City, Utah and Portland Oregon-using telephone and
video conferencing technology.
A key change to the IRP public process occurng during the analysis preparation phase was the
state stakeholder dialogue sessions from mid-March through April 2008. (For prior IRPs, the
Company relied solely on general public meetings open to all participants.) These goal of these
sessions, targeting a state-specific audience, were to (1) captue key resource planning issues of
most concern to each state, and discuss how these can be tackled from a system planning
perspective, (2) ensure that stakeholders understand PacifiCorp's planning principles and the
logic behind its planning process, and (3) set expectations for what can be accomplished in the
curent IRPlbusiness planning cycle. This change in public process enhance interaction with
stakeholders early on in the planning cycle, and provided a forum to directly address stakeholder
concerns regarding equitable representation of state interests durng general public meetings.
As far as agenda setting is concerned, PacifiCorp solicited recommendations from the state
stakeholders in advance of the session, as well as allowing open time to ensure that participants
had adequate time for dialogue. Some follow-up activities arsing from the sessions were
addressed in subsequent public meetings or another state meeting.
The 2008 public input meetings were augmented by a series of focused technical workshops to
provide an opportity to discuss complex topics for a multi-state utility in more detaiL.
Among the organizations that were represented and actively involved in this collaborative effort
were:
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP
Commissions
. Idaho Public Utilities Commission
. Oregon Public Utilities Commission
. Public Service Commission of Uta
· Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission
. Wyoming Public Service Commission
Intervenors
. Brigham Young University
. Citizen's Utility Board of Oregon
· Committee for Consumer Services State of Utah
. ECOS Consulting
. Energy Trust of Oregon
. Energy Strategies, LLC
· Health Environment Allance of Uta (HEAL)
. Horizon Wind Energy
· Industral Customers of Northwest Utilities
. Kennecott
. Mountain West Consulting, LLC
· Northwest Power and Conservation Council
. NW Energy Coalition
. Oregon Departent of Energy
. Renewables Northwest Project
. Salt Lake City
. Salt Lake Community Action Program
· Southwest Energy Effciency Project
. Sierra Club, Utah Chapter
· Utah Association of Energy Users
. Utah Clean Energy Allance
. Utah Division of Air Quality
. Utah Division of Public Utilities
. Utah Energy Offce
. Utah Geological Survey
. Wasatch Clean Air Coalition
· Western Resource Advocates
. West Wind Wires
· Wyoming Industral Energy Consumers
· Wyoming Office Of Consumer Advocacy
Others
· Portland General Electric (PGE)
. A vista Utilities
· Cadmus Group Inc. - Stuar McMenamin
Appendix D - Public Input Process
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Paci~Corp - 2008 IRP Appendix D - Public Input Process
. John Klingele (Washington Customer)
PacifiCorp extends its gratitude for the time and energy these participants have given to the
resource plan. Your participation has contrbuted significantly to the quality of this plan, and
your continued participation wil help as PacifiCorp strives to improve its planning efforts going
forward.
PacifiCorp hosted five full-day public input meetings, two half day meetings, one conference call
and six state meetings during the 2008. Durng the 2008 IRP process presentations and
discussions covered various issues including inputs and assumptions, risks, modeling techniques,
and analytical results. Below are the agendas from the public input meetings and the technical
workshops.
General Meetings
February 29, 2008
. IRP Regulatory Compliance
. IRP Process Improvements
o IRPlBusiness Plan Alignment Strategy
o Public Process Changes
o IRP Report Changes
. 2008 IRP Modeling Plan
. 2008 IRP Activity Timeline
. 10- Year Business Planning Process
. Resource Portfolio Development for the IRP Update/2008-20l7 Business Plan
o Load Forecast
. Demand-side Management Resources
. Capacity Load and Resource Balance
. Resource and Other Input Assumptions
. Resource Additions
May 22, 2008
. Update to the 2008 IRP Modeling Plan
. Case Definitions for Portfolio Development
. Natual Gas and Electrcity Forecasts
. Resource Characterization
o Supply side resources
o DSM Supply Cures
May 23, 2008
. Proposed Oregon Public Utility Commission IRP guidelines on C02 risk
· Range and timing of C02 costs represented in the IRP
. Overview of the IPM (Integrated Planning Model) and usage for the IRP
· Overview of the EPRl study on C02 policy impacts on western power markets
255
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix 0 - Public Input Process
June 26, 2008
. Long-Term Load Forecast
o Overview of the June 2008 Long Term Load Forecast
o Total Company Profile
· Forecast summar and Growt rate comparisons
· Energy by State and Energy by Class
o Rocky Mountain Power
· Energy by Class
· Utah, Wyoming, Idaho
o Pacific Power
· Energy by Class
· Oregon, Washington, California
. 0 Risks to the Forecast
. Load and Resource Balance
. Update on portfolio development cases and modeling process
ITRON Agenda
. Modeling weather response using multi-par slopes and load research data
. Defining daily normal weather for weather normalization of energy
. Overview ofthe Statistically Adjusted End Use (SAE) approach
. Overview of sales models
. Overview of peak models and normal peak producing weather
. Overview of tyical weather scenaros and hourly model forecasts
November 12, 2008 (Conference Call)
. IRPI Business Plan Alignent
. IRP Development Status and Schedule
. Load Forecast
December 18, 2008
. Updated Schedule
. Updated Load Forecast
. Capacity Load and Resource Balance
. Portfolio Modeling Set-up
. Portfolio Development Results
Handout - Portfolio Development Results Package
January 7, 2009
(Repeat of 12/18/08 for Washington 1 Idao participants that missed the earlier meeting)
. Updated Schedule
. Updated Load Forecast
. Capacity Load and Resource Balance
. Portfolio Modeling Set-up
. Portolio Development Results
Handout - Portfolio Development Results Package
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix D - Public Input Process
February 2, 2009
. Cover questions on portfolio development
. Stochastic simulation and top-performing portfolio selection approach
. Stochastic simulation results
o Alternative capacity planing reserve margin analysis
. Portfolio ranking and preference scores
. Preferred portfolio selection
o Scenario risk analysis
March 11, 2009 (Conference Call)
. IRP Schedule
March 19, 2009 (Conference Call) Utah Parties
. IRP Filing Extension
State Meetings
April 9, 2008 (Utah)
. DSM and enabling technologies
. Range of resource options
. Renewable energy resource analysis
o Bramble (SB 202) renewables act and other renewable portfolio standards
o Wind integration
o Optimal wind amount under stochastic analysis
. Feedback on IRPlBusiness Plan Improvement Paper (distrbuted via email on 317/08)
. Load forecast
April 10, 2008 (Wyoming)
. DSM and enabling technologies
. Range of resource options
. Renewable energy resource analysis
. Feedback on IRPlBusiness Plan Improvement Paper (distrbuted via email on 317/08)
. Load forecast
. Planning reserve margin studies
. Regional capacity adequacy/market depth
. Environmental policy
o C02 costs/regulations
o Other environmental externalities
. Other miscellaneous issues
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix D - Public Input Process
April 21, 2008 (Oregon / California)
. DSM
. Range of supply-side resource options
· Feedback on the IRP/Business Plan improvement paper (distrbuted via email on 317/08)
· Impacts of the Oregon Commission 2008 IRP acknowledgment order
· Renewable energy resource analysis
. Planning reserve margin
· Environmental policy
o Pending IRP environmental cost guideline no. 8 (UM 1302)
o C02 costslregulations
. Load forecast
· Other miscellaneous issues
April 22, 2008 (Washington)
. DSM
· Range of supply-side resource options
· Feedback on the IRPlBusiness Plan improvement paper (originally distrbuted via email
on 317/08)
· Renewable energy resource analysis and Renewable Portfolio Standards
. Planning reserve margin
· Environmental policy
. Load forecast
. Other miscellaneous issues
April 23, 2008 (Idaho)
. DSM
· Range of supply-side resource options
· Feedback on the IRP/Business Plan improvement paper (originally distributed via email
on 317/08)
· Environmental/renewable regulatory resource constraints
· Planning reserve margin
. Load forecast
. Other miscellaneous issues
May 14,2008 (Utah)
· Planning reserve margin studies
. Regional capacity adequacy/market depth
· Hydro capacity assumptionslsensitivity analysis
· Environmental policy
o CO2 costslregulations
o Other environmental externalities
· Other miscellaneous issues
258
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix D - Public Input Process
Durng the course of the public input meetings, certain concerns or questions needed additional
follow-up from PacifiCorp. These questions or issues were taken off-line, addressed at a
subsequent public input meeting or workshop, or assembled into a "parking lot" and responded
to via a parking lot response document that is emailed to IRP participants. A number of public
participants recommended that responses to individual information requests made through the
IRP email "mailbox" or other means be made available to all IRP participants. PacifiCorp is
investigating a process for doing do that is least burdensome to the company.
PacifiCorp distrbuted the draft version of the IRP document on April 8, 2009, for public review,
and requested written comments by May 6, 2009. Parties that submitted comments include:
. Renewable Northwest Project
. Oregon Department of Energy
. Public Utility Commission of Oregon Staff
. Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission Staff
. Utah Association of Energy Users (UAE)
In addition to these comments, a number of Utah parties submitted data requests prior to the
filing of the final IRP document under the Utah commission's 2008 IRP acknowledgment docket
(Docket No. 09-2035-01) established on April 27, 2009. These parties included the Utah
Departent of Public Utilties, the Utah Offce of Consumer Services (formerly the Utah
Committee of Consumer Services), Utah Association of Energy Users, and Utah Clean Energy.
Clarifications and information requested through the wrtten comments and data requests were
incorporated in the final version of the IRP to the extent that PacifiCorp had time to do so.
PacifiCorp's IRP internet website contains many of the documents and presentations that support
the 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008 Integrated Resource Plans. To access it, please visit the
company's website at http://ww.PacifiCorp.com.click on the menu "News & Info" and select
"Integrated Resource Planning".
PacifiCorp requests that any informal request be sent in wrting to the following address or email
address below.
259
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix D - Public Input Process
PacifiCorp
IRP Resource Planing
825 N.E. Multnomah, Suite 600
Portland, Oregon 97232
Electronic Email Address:
IRP((PacifiCorp.com
Phone Number:
(503) 813-5245
260
..................'.......'....................
~~n:f9EP July 24, 2009
RECEIVED
ERRTA FOR APPENDIX E - STATE LOAD FORECAST
APPENDIX E - STATE LOAD FORECAST
2809 JUL 29 AM 9= 54
IOft,HO PUBLIC
UITILf-I"¡r-S' Cr;~.l~$r(~C,¡tì~d.ií .b..... .'V.nj:HlVVI\...¡.i
This section provides state-level forecasted retail sales sumaries. The tables below show retail
sales values after the load reduction impacts of Class2 DSM programs included in the 2008 IRP
preferred portfolio are deducted. For puroses of the 2008 IRP ths version of the data is known
as "Post-DSM". Chapter 5 provides the forecast information for each state and the system as a
whole by year for 2009 through 2018 before Class 2 DSM load reductions are applied.
State Summaries
Oregon
Table E.1 sumarizes Oregon state forecasted sales growt by customer class.
Table E.I - Forecasted Sales Growth in Oregon
Residential Commercial Industrial Irrigation Lighting Other Total
2009 5,649 5,097 3,019 266 36 0 14067
2010 5,665 5,135 2,909 266 36 0 14,011
2011 5,728 5,204 2,920 266 36 0 14154
2012 5,813 5,283 3,001 266 37 0 14,400
2013 5,816 5,356 3,175 266 36 0 14,649
2014 5,837 5,441 3,275 266 36 0 14,855
2015 5,859 5,529 3,269 266 36 0 14959
2016 5,904 5,633 3,269 266 37 0 15109
2017 5,911 5,709 3,261 266 36 0 15,183
2018 5,985 5,791 3,255 266 36 0 15,333
1.4%
The forecast of residential sales is expected to grow at a slower rate of 0.6% anually compared
to average anual growth rate of around 2.3% experienced past five years. Ths slow down is
mainly due to housing market slowdown and impact of worsening economic conditions.
Population growt is expected to continue in the service area, which is driving some of the
growth, while usage per customer in the residential class is expected to decline due to economic
slowdown durng earlier years. Staing with 2012, use per customer is expected to decline
mainly due to the impact of long-term lighting effciency gains resulting from 2007 Federal
Energy legislation and other conservation programs.
Over the first two years of forecast horizon, forecasted commercial class sales are projected to
grow at a slower average anual growt rate of 1.3% compared to historical periods due to the
impact of worsening economic conditions. Educational, health service, and governent related
commercial activity are only sectors expected to stil grow durng the next two years. During the
261
~~n:£9EP July 24, 2009
remaining years of the forecast horizon, commercial sales are expected to grow at a higher
average anual rate of 1.4%, which is similar to the average growth rate experienced historically.
Usage per customer is projected to decline slightly due to increased equipment efficiency.
Forecasted industral class sales are projected to decline at an average anual rate of 3.2% durg
2009 and 2010 due to impacts of the housing market slowdown and curent economic recession
affecting mostly wood products and semi-conductor manufactuing. Staing with 2011,
industrial sales is expected to grow again at an average anual growth rate of 1.7% reflecting
recovery in special food processing and wood products sector, along with continued
diversifcation in the manufactuing base in the state.
The factors infuencing the forecasted sales growth rates are also influencing the forecasted peakdemand growt rates. S g- ~i"-W h. =to c-as ington ;::¡ ?
Table E.2 sumarzes Washington state forecasted sales growth by customer class. c.~6 N
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~fnTable E.2 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in Washington
::m
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Residential Commercial Industrial - Tot
2009 1,567 1,453 868 4,055
2010 1,571 1,458 850 4,047
2011 1,577 1,473 848 4,065
2012 1,582 1,492 840 4,080
2013 1,577 1,509 846 4,099
2014 1,576 1,530 853 4,126
2015 1,576 1,552 856 4,151
2016 1,583 1,578 857 4,184
2017 1,580 1,597 856 4,199
2018 1,591 1,614 853 4,225
0.2%1.2%
The forecast of residential sales is expected to grow at a slower average anual growt rate of
0.2% compared to recent historical growth rates of around 2.4% due to the impact of housing
market slowdown and economic recession. The slight growth in residential class sales is due to
continuing customer growt drven by population growth and household formation in the
PacifiCorp's service area. Usage per customer is expected to decrease slightly durg the early
years due to worsening economic conditions. Staing with 2012, use per customer is expected to
decline mainly due to the impact of long-term lighting efficiency gains resulting from 2007
Federal Energy legislation.
Over the first two years of forecast horizon, forecasted commercial class sales are projected to
grow at a slower rate of 0.8% compared to historical periods due to the impact of curent
economic recession. Beyond 2010, commercial sales are expected to grow at a higher average
anua rate of 1.2%, which is close to average anual growt rate experienced historically.
262
~~t'f9EP July 24, 2009
The industrial class sales are projected to decline for the first four years of forecast horizon
mainly due to housing market slowdown affecting wood products sector. For the remaining par
of the forecast period industrial sales are expected to grow slightly reflecting recovery in wood
products and food processing sectors.
Caliornia
Table E.3 sumarizes California state forecasted sales growt by customer class.
Table E.3 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in California
Residential Commercial Industrial Irrigation Lighting Other Total
2009 401 307 70 98 2 0 879
2010 402 311 89 98 2 0 903
2011 404 317 110 98 2 0 931
2012 409 325 125 98 2 0 959
2013 406 331 129 98 2 0 966
2014 406 338 129 98 2 0 974
2015 406 346 129 98 2 0 982
2016 408 354 130 98 2 0 992
2017 407 360 130 98 2 0 997
2018 412 367 130 98 2 0 1,009
7.1%
The rate of growth in residential class sales is drven, by the continuing growth in population in
this par of PacifiCorp's service area. Usage per customer in the residential class is expected to
decline due to increasing adoption of more effcient appliances and the impact of long-term
lighting efficiency gains resulting from 2007 Federal Energy legislation effective in 2012. .
The continuing population growth also affects sales in the commercial sector through continued
commercial customer growth. Additionally, commercial usage per customer is increasing due to
greater square footage per building in new construction, increases in the number of offices, and
the increasing use of offce equipment in all commercial strctues. However, some of this
growth is being offset from increased equipment efficiency over the forecast horizon.
Declines over the decade in the lumber and wood product industries production resulted in an
overall decline in the industrial sales; however, there are indications that this trend has ended and
growt in other businesses are expected to continue. During first four years of forecast horizon,
industrial sales are expected to grow due to the addition of new industrial custo~s. F~the
remaining years sales are expected to remain flat. ~ 5ii"-::o c-
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263
Utah
Table E.4 sumarizes Uta state forecasted sales growt by customer class.
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Table E.4 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in Utah 1009 JUL 29 AM 9= S5
'(Qjher Total
2009 6,410 7,967 7,076 186 431 22,158
2010 6,535 8,227 7,100 186 431 22,567
2011 6,660 8,270 7,330 186 431 22,966
2012 6,822 8,543 7,630 186 432 23,701
2013 6,837 8,760 7,988 186 431 24,290
2014 6,906 9,034 8,377 186 431 25023
2015 6,973 9,305 8,764 186 431 25,747
2016 7,065 9,605 9,012 186 432 26389
2017 7,127 9,867 9,091 186 431 26,790
2018 7,290 10,157 9,172 186 431 27325
1.4%2.7% 2.9%
Utah continues to see natual population growt that is faster than many of the surounding
states. Durng the historical period, Uta experienced rapid population growth with a high rate of
in-migration. However, the rate of population growth is expected to be lower in the coming
decade as in-migration into the state slows down. Over the forecast horizon, residential sales are
expected to grow at a slower rate of 1.4% compared to what has been experienced historically
due to slow down in-migration and housing market slowdown in near-term. Usage per customer
in the residential class is expected to decline due to recent economic recession during early par
of the forecast horizon. Beyond 2012, the decline in use per customer is driven by the impact of
long-term lighting effciency gains resulting from 2007 Federal Energy legislation and other
energy effciency and conservation programs.
The continuing population growth also affects sales in the commercial sector by continued
commercial customer growth. Usage per customer is projected to decline due to recent economic
recession during early par of the forecast horizon, and stas increasing again durng later years
with new constrction having greater square footage per building and increasing usage of office
equipment. However, some of this growt is being offset from equipment efficiency gains over
the forecast horizon.
The industrial class has been experiencing signficant industrial diversification in the state and
will continue to cause sales growth in the sector. Uta has a strategic location in the western half
of the United States, which provides easy access into many regional markets. The industrial base
has become more linked to the region and is less dependent on the natural resource base with
the state. This provides a strong foundation for continued growt into the futue. For the first two
years of forecast horizon, industrial sales are expected grow at a much slower rate of 1.8%
anually compared to historical average anual growth rate of 3.0% experienced over the past
five years. Expansions by mining and natual resources are projected to slowdown with
continuing downtu in manufacturing. Staing 2011, industral sales are expected to grow again
264
~~~n:f9EP July 24, 2009
at higher rates similar to what was experienced historically, reflecting expected improvement in
overall economic conditions.
Idaho
Table E.5 sumarizes Idaho state forecasted sales growth by customer class.
Table E.5 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in Idaho
Residential Commercial Industrial Other Total
2009 700 425 1,666 0 3,403
2010 711 438 1,669 0 3,430
2011 723 450 1,672 0 3,457
2012 740 467 1,677 0 3,496
2013 740 479 1,790 0 3,622
2014 747 497 1,873 0 3729
2015 753 514 1,877 0 3,757
2016 764 533 1,882 0 3,793
2017 770 550 1,885 0 3,818
2018 787 568 1,889 0 3,857
1.3%3.3%
The recent migration to Idaho has led the residential sales to grow at an average anual growth
rate of around 4.0% during past five years. Over the forecast horizon, the residential sales are
stil projected to grow but at a slower rate of 1.3% anually compared to historical periods due to
expected slow-down in in-migration. Usage per customer is expected to decline mainly due to
recent economic recession during earlier years and due to increased energy efficiency and
conservation programs for the later years.
The growth rate for commercial class sales is expected to continue to be strong due to customer
growth in response to the increasing residential customer growt resulting fuher growth in
service sectors such as education and health care services. Usage per customer is projected to
increase, which has been infuenced in par by new constrction" increased air conditionig
saturation, offce equipment, and exterior lighting. However, this growth is somewhat offset by
equipment efficiency gains over the forecast horizon.
Industral sales are expected to decline in 2009 due the impact of worseni~ ecoDmic
conditions, and remain flat until the end of 2012. Industrial sales are expected to i~se~ain
in 2013 due to some new customer in the serice ar ~ ~ ~Wyoming 8;g \D ~
Table E.6 sumarizes Wyoming state forecasted sales growth by customer class. '3õ3 ~ ni3';:.r~'" 0
(,0 e.' 'l(j) c.
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265
~~~f9EP July 24, 2009
Table E.6 - Forecasted Retail Sales Growth in Wyoming
Residential Commercial Industrial Other Total
2009 1,028 1,472 6,869 0 9,401
2010 1,036 1,491 7,150 0 9,709
2011 1,043 1,503 7,526 0 10,105
2012 1,052 1,517 7,914 0 10,516
2013 1,045 1,526 8,270 0 10,873
2014 1,041 1,537 8,603 0 11,215
2015 1,037 1,548 8,936 0 11,556
2016 1,038 1,564 9,307 0 11,943
2017 1,033 1,572 9,584 0 12,225
2018 1,038 1,584 9,864 0 12,521
0.1%0.8% 4.1%
Residential sales is expected to grow at a slower average anual rate of 0.1 %, compared to an
average anual growth rate of around 4.7% experienced during past five years. Population
growth is stil expected to continue in the service area, which causes some of the sales growt.
U sage per customer in the residential class is expected to decline due to recent economic
recession durng earlier years. Durng later years of the forecast horizon, use per customer is.
expected to decline due to impact of long-term lighting effciency gains resulting from the 2007
federal energy legislation, effective in 2012.
Over the forecast horizon, commercial class sales are also projected to grow at a slower anual
growth rate of 0.8% compared to historical periods. Sales growt is driven mainly by the
customer growth in response to stil continuing residential customer growth and the growt of
the office sector.
Wyoming industrial sales growth, drven by expansion in oil and gas extraction industries, is
expected to continue, but at a much reduced rate due to declines in energy prices and worsening
economic conditions. Continuing growth in industrial customers in the service area also
contributes to the load growth in the residential and commercial customer sectors.
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266
~ ~~ælf9EP July 24,2009
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PacifiCorp prepared a new load forecast in FebruaW!Mi~irÐr ~roN1ctul loads through
Januar 2009. With continuig worsening economic conditions, the Company reviewed the loads
in PacifiCorp's service territories, and revised the forecast accordingly to reflect the latest impact
on loads and latest forecast of economic varables. Below are the capacity and energy tables
similar to those found in Chapter 5. These forecasts are net of DSM-related load reductions.
February 2009 Energy Forecast
Table E.7 - February 2009 Annual Load Growth forecasted in Megawatt-hours
2009 60,513,585 14,717,735 4,339,279 966,290 24,066,263 10,167,695 3,718,077 2,538,247
2010 61,603,833 14,810,829 4,344,912 966,218 24,522,312 10,646,811 3,750,820 2,561,930
2011 63,263,930 14,921,509 4,371,402 1,004,954 25,404,577 11,188,878 3,785,957 2,586,655
2012 65,029,943 15,115,696 4,417,268 1,037,281 26,168,642 11,845,914 3,829,464 2,615,678
2013 66466,245 15,159,619 4,424,099 1,055,642 26,884,446 12,253,897 3,974,809 2,713,732
2014 67979096 15,223,467 4,443,316 1,071,104 27,682,221 12,674,296 4,088,986 2,795,706
2015 69,346,652 15,283,484 4,463,835 1,084,175 28,492,384 13,088,772 4,118,092 2,815,910
2016 70,712,194 15,382,412 4,496,642 1,100,268 29,188,167 13,549,959 4,154,171 2,840,577
2017 71,559,345 15,402,000 4,506,713 1,109,880 29,596,661 13,908,106 4,178,291 2,857,694
2018 72 717 605 15513 152 4,542282 1 126645 30141988 14,293,815 4,215,982 ,742
2009-18 2.1%0.6%0.5%1.7%2.5% 3.9%1.4%1.4%
2018-28 1.1%0.5%0.6%1.3%1.5% 1.3%0.8%0.8%
2009-28 1.6%0.5% 0.6%1.5%2.0%2.5%1.1% 1.1%
February 2009 System-Wide Coincident Peak Load Forecast
Table E.8 - February 2009 Forecasted Coincidental Peak Load in Megawatts
2009 9,941 2,362 728 158 4,440 1,268 625 361
2010 10,161 2,395 737 158 4,546 1,307 649 368
2011 10,481 2,419 746 166 4,710 1,371 674 395
2012 10,805 2,446 782 172 4,838 1,439 705 423
2013 11,024 2,462 763 176 4,968 1,490 737 428
2014 11,179 2,486 775 177 5,126 1,538 683 395
2015 11,425 2,501 783 180 5,262 1,585 708 406
2016 11,690 2,517 790 183 5,382 1,635 746 436
2017 11,876 2,530 798 189 5,478 1,678 759 443
2018 12,110 2,551 837 189 5,581 1,722 770 461
267
~~n:£9EP July 24, 2009
2009-2018
2018-2028
2009-2028
2.2%
1.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
3.5%
1.3%
2.3%
2.3%
0.7%
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
1.1%
2.0%
1.5%
1.7%
2.6%
1.6%
2.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.5%
8-.
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268
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
APPENDIX F - WIND INTEGRATION COSTS AND CAPACITY
PLANNING CONTRIBUTIONS
This appendix summarizes the results ofPacifiCorp's latest wind integration cost analysis, which
will continue to be refined and expanded. This appendix also presents updated wind capacity
contribution values using a statistical estimation methodology that was applied for the first time
in the Company's 2007 IRP.
For the wind integration cost study, PacifiCorp developed a methodology to support the costs
associated with resource portfolio analysis for the IRP as well as costs used in the evaluation of
cost effective renewable resources. This approach decomposes the estimation of inter-hour (hour
to hour) and intra-hour (within the hour) costs to integrate intermittent renewable resources. For
inter-hour costs, these components include day-ahead and hour-ahead wind forecast varability,
or what was referred to as system balancing costs in the 2007 IRP.2 For intra-hour costs, the
components include actual forecast variation, "regulation up" requirements, and "regulation
down" requirements. These latter costs pertin to operational assessment and planning of wind
variability down to 10-minute intervals or less. In addition to this cost breakdown, PacifiCorp
reports integration costs for wind added in the PacifiCorp eastern balancing authority area
(PACE), the PacifiCorp west balancing authority area (P ACW), and a system weighted-average
based on installed capacity in each control area.
The wind integration cost section first provides background on these cost components and then
describes the estimation methodologies and cost results. Study caveats and areas for fuer
research are also summarized. The costs results are expressed as a function of the amount and
timing of wind included in the 2008 IRP preferred portfolio as well as existing wind (Table F.l).
The section concludes with a discussion on futue tools, approaches, and external coordination
opportnities that PacifiCorp is actively considering or explorig to address the consequences of
adding large quantities of wind.
Table F.l- 2008 IRP Preferred Portfolio Wind Resource Additions by Year
Existing and
Planned 1,284 System
throu h 2010
2011 100 29%
2011 100 29%
2012 100 35%
2013 100 35%
2014 100 35%
2015 150 35%
2016 100 35%
2017 100 35%
2 PacifiCorp, 2007 Integrated Resource Plan, Appendix J, pp. 193-4.
269
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
2018
2019
2020
2021
TOTAL
Due to a number of project schedules, this wind study was not completed in time to be
incorporated into the 2008 IRP portfolio modeling. As discussed in Chapter 7 of Volume i, a
value of $11.75/MWh-based on Portland General Electrc Company's latest wind integration
study-was used for IRP capacity expansion optimization modeling purposes. While the
Company acknowledged the differences between the PacifiCorp and PGE systems and the
caveats associated with the PGE study, PacifiCorp believed that the PGE value represented a
reasonable proxy until its own study could be completed. If the wind integration cost study yields
a significantly different total value, the Company commits to perform a sensitivity study with the
System Optimizer capacity expansion model and the 2008 IRP preferred portfolio modeling
assumptions to determine the wind resource selection impact of the updated cost value.
Background
In power planning and dispatch, any period in which load or generation varies from a steady
value results in an increased cost for the utility to balance out this variation. Variations in the
load and wind generation forecasts are managed with balancing activities. Once the hour-ahead
schedule is given to the real-time staff, actual varation in load and wind generation within the
hour is balanced using system generation resources. Curent balancing activities treat wind
forecast variations similarly to load forecast deviation; however, special attention is required for
the greater percentage variability and near-term volume growt of wind generation.
The components of wind variability which give rise to integration costs can be divided into two
groups: inter-hour and intra-hour. The inter-hour components of wind variabilty are:
. Day-ahead forecast varation: deviation of the long-term wind forecast (prior energy
expectations) to the day-ahead forecast for the day prior to power delivery.
· Hour-ahead forecast variation: deviation of hour-ahead forecast from day-ahead forecast
for the hour prior to delivery.
The rebalancing or closure of open positions generated as new load and wind forecast data
becomes available requires the payment of trnsaction costs.
The other set of costs to be considered is associated with the intra-hour (within the hour)
components of wind variability:
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
. Actual forecast variation: deviation of actual hourly average energy from the hour-ahead
forecast,
. Regulate down: deviation of hourly maximum energy from the energy at the beginning of
the hour, measured with ten minute granularity,
. Regulate up: deviation of hourly minimum energy from the energy at the beginning of the
hour, measured with ten minute grnularity,
. Automatic Generation Control (AGC): fine scale variation of energy over a one to two
minute time scale.
These intra-hour factors require the holding of additional reserves above the standard
requirement of 5 percent on wind generation. Due to the small impact, yet large analytical
requirement, to determine reserves for AGC, this cost component is not addressed in the wind
integration study; however, this issue may be pursued in the future as the company gains more
experience in this area.
These inter- and intra-hour factors do not include long-term shaping effects. While benefits or
costs may arise due to the hourly difference between expected future energy in moving from a
flat-dispatched unit such as geothermal to a shaped profile unit such as wind, on a longer-term
view, these differences are only the effect of different hourly prices or expected value on the
forecasted future energy; therefore, no actual costs are incurred from balancing a new long.term
wind pattern with system resource redispatch.
Determination of Incremental Reserve ("Intra-Hour") Requirements
Before all reserve costs can be estimated, the megawatt (MW) quantity of reserves required to
maintain system reliability as additional wind in the Eastern and Western balancing authority
areas of PacifiCorp's service region must be calculated. In previous wind integration studies,
PacifiCorp has not captured the increased load-following reserve requirements caused by wind
forecast error within the hour. Increasing the magnitude of wind resources on the system results
in an increased reserve requirement due to the fact that wind forecasts are inherently inaccurate,
particularly at within-hour granularity. Intra-hour wind varability requires the dispatch of
existing units to balance the system as there is no intra-hour market.
Actual Variation
The deviation of the actual hourly average energy from the hour-ahead forecast can be computed
given the historical hour-ahead wind generation forecast and actual hourly energy values. This
produces statistical hourly distributions of the forecast versus actual energy. If this was the only
source of the intra-hour uncertainty, the quantities of reserves may be easier to estimate by taking
the 97.5th percentile of the variation distrbution which represents two standard deviations of
forecast error and the approximate PacifiCorp performance under Control Performance Standard
II (CPS II)\ Reporting levels of reserves required with a 97.5% confidence interval adds an
important reliability dimension to the calculation. While actual day-to-day balancing operations
may require less reserves than suggested in this study, attention to tail events is an important
consideration for overall system reliability. Additional considerations include the correlation
3 The CPS II stadad refers to the compliance bounds for the lO-minute average of the Area Control Error.
271
PaciCorp - 2008 IRP Appndix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
between forecast error and two additional sources of intra-hour uncertainty: "regulate down" and
"regulate up".
Regulate Down
For the puroses of this study, regulate down is the difference between the maximum wind
energy within the hour (using lO-minute interval wind generation data) and the energy at the
beginning of the hour. When wind energy moves up within an hour, other generation resources
are required to reduce their output to compensate for this intra-hour energy deviation. The
analysis of lO-minute interval wind generation data yields a statistical distrbution of the
difference between the wind energy at the beginning of the hour and the ten-minute period of
maximum energy within the hour. Takig two standard deviations of the resultant statistical
distribution allows reserves associated with this factor to be estimated at a confidence interval
consistent with PacifiCorp's CPS II stadard.
Regulate Up
F or the puroses of this study, regulate up is the difference between the minimum wind energy
within the hour (using lO-minute interval wind generation data) and the energy at the beginning
of the hour. When wind energy moves down within an hour, other resources on the system are
required to increase output to compensate for this intr-hour energy deviation. The analysis of
lO-minute interval wind generation data yields a statistical distribution of the difference between
the wind energy at the beginning of the hour and minimum energy within the hour. Taking two
standard deviations of the resultant statistical distrbution allows reserves associated with this
factor to be estimated at a confidence interval consistent with PacifiCorp's CPS II standard.
These three intra-hour factors for different locations are not independent of each other and tend
to exhibit some positive and negative correlations that are taken into account when measurng the
standard deviation of the simultaneous and combined effect of these factors. Before estimating
the total reserves requirement for intra-hour integration, correlations are estimated and applied to
determine the total combined uncertainty on a regional leveL. Two standard deviations for the
total probability distribution allowed for computation of reserves associated with all intra-hour
factors in the Eastern and Western control areas.
System Balancing ("Inter-Hour") Cost Calculation
The shape of a wind energy delivery pattern is different than the delivery patterns of other
generation resources. The wind is intermittent and variable, so a wind pattern that is input as a
forecast of expected generation differs considerably from the actual generation delivered.
Alternatively, a dispatchable resource, like a CCCT, does maintain a flat schedule of energy
delivery so generation units on the system do not have to redispatch and balancing activities do
not have to occur to compensate for a block of flat energy. When a short-term wind forecast is
created and compared to a longer-term wind energy expectation, balancing activities may have to
occur to balance the deviation between the wind forecasts and realized output.
Day-ahead Variation
Because a day-ahead forecast of hourly wind energy always differs from the expected futue
energy level by some amount, the ideal of deliverig a balanced energy profile on a day-ahead
basis requires some adjustment in the energy position via transactional balancing. While
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PacifìCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
deviation from a perfectly balanced schedule is normal, estimation of the impacts are assumed to
be eliminated by balancing activities to the extent possible.
Fixing the imbalance in real-time is generally more expensive and, to this end, this study
assumes that all forecast imbalances are addressed in the day-ahead market. This is limited by
the size and availability of standard 25 MW blocks for standard l6-hour or 8-hour (on-peak and
off-peak) delivery patterns. PacifiCorp incurs transaction costs every time it trades a block of 25
MW. These transaction costs may vary depending on the time of day and location and are
currently estimated to be about $0.50 per MWh over market for purchases to cover a shortfall in
forecast, and under market for sales to cover a forecast excess during most transactional hours.
This internal assumption is generally accepted by balancing staff and is consistent with the
assumption used in Portland General Electrc's wind integration study. Given the hourly
difference between the long-term expected wind generation and the historical wind generation
forecasts at the day-ahead horizon, these costs may be estimated.
To calculate the transactional costs associated with balancing the hourly long-term expected
wind generation to the hourly day-ahead wind schedule, the variation was calculated as the
absolute value of the difference between the two forecasts. For October 2008 through April
2009, a sample week of hourly data from all existing wind plants on the system (for which data
was available) was chosen for each month4. The distinction of costs between the Eastern and
Western side of the system is reflective of different degrees of forecast accuracy. The existing
data was scaled up to reflect the planned East and West additions to the system, 200 and 1,250
MW, respectively, for a total of 773 MWon the West and 1,784 MW on the East. The total
deviation was found for each day for both heavy load and light load hours.
For example, on Day l, the deviation for all heavy-load hours was added. The same was done
for light-load hours. The resulting totals were rounded up to the nearest 25 MW increment to
reflect actual transaction sizes available in the day-ahead market. The total daily variation was
added up for each sample week and multiplied by an estimated bid-ask spread of $0.50 per
MWh. PacifiCorp's front office provided this bid-ask spread estimate. The total transaction
costs incured for all sample weeks was divided by the total MWh of long-term expected
generation for the same sample weeks and presented on a $/expected MWh basis provided in
Table F .2. Transaction costs in the table below are lower in the Eastern control area and may be
the result of more accurate forecasting, a more uniform wind pattern, and higher locational
diversity.
Table F.2 - Wind Inter-hour Day-Ahead Balancing Transaction Costs
4 This period was chosen due to limited data availability.
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
Hour-ahead variation
Similar to the day-ahead variation, the rebalancing of energy to close open positions due to the
change in forecasted wind energy from the day-ahead schedule to the hour-ahead schedule also
adds transaction costs. Hour-ahead transactions assume transactions in i MW increments, but
transactions costs are up to twenty-five percent of the per-MWh energy costs. The precise
percentage depends on then-eurent market conditions and the amount of energy traded.
In order to derive the hour-ahead forecast used by real-time for scheduling, a persistence
methodology was used. When the real-time traders schedule wind for the upcoming hour, it is
assumed that the actual wind generation level from the previous hour wil persist for the next
hour. In this study, the hour-ahead schedule was based on persistence. The existing October
2008 through April 2009 data was scaled up to reflect the planned East and West additions to the
system, 200 and 1,250 MW, respectively, for a total of 773 MW on the West and 1,784 MW on
the East. The total deviation was found for each day for both heavy load and light load hours.
The day-ahead to hour-ahead balancing transaction costs were calculated in largely the same
fashion with the exception of the bid-ask spread used. Transactions undertaken to correct an
imbalance, due to variations between the day-ahead and hour-ahead forecast, are of higher cost,
which is dependent upon the quantity of power needed and market conditions. Figure F.l shows
the hourly frequency of various imbalance sizes based on 1,300 hourly deviations, which is
constitutes the total number of sample hours.
Figure F.I-Hour-Ahead Variation Frequency Distribution
Wind Inter-hour Integration:
Size of Hour-ahead Rebalancing Trades
900
800
~ 700
g 600::
Õ 500
¡ 400.Q
E 300:iz 200
100
o
o
l\/ \
/\
i \
f "\\
I '-~
II "" ~.
IJ "--..
,T
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Size of Rebalance Trade (MW)
I-+ West -I East I
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
It is also generally accepted in the hour-ahead market that, as the size of the transaction
increases, the costs associated with transactions increases. Based on the frequency distrbution
above, a smaller cost is required for transactions of about 50 MW, which are transacted much
more frequently. The distribution also indicates that, in general, transaction costs on the west
portion of the system wil be higher due to lower forecast accuracy. Specific transaction
assumptions are listed in Table F.3.
Table F.3 - Inter-hour Hour-Ahead Balancing Transaction Cost Ranges
o
101
20l
5%
10%
25%
5%
10%
15%
100
200
L,OOO
Table F.3 indicates that as more wind projects are added to the system, forecast improvements
are necessary in order to prevent large variations which come with a higher market transaction
cost. Consider, on an average basis, if a 100 MW wind project is added to the system, the shape
of the distrbution of the size of hourly errors wil be about the same. As the distrbution of error
increases in a linear fashion, the cost associated with rebalancing does not. Since costs are
greater as the size of transactions increases, the distrbution of errors may increase on a linear
basis, but costs wil increase faster.
Once the hourly variance from the day-ahead forecast to the hour-ahead forecast has been
calculated, the specific hourly variance is applied to the corresponding hourly real-time price
from an independent energy information company that publishes hourly wholesale power
indices. For PACE, Four Comers was used and for PACW, Mid-Columbia was used. The size of
the variance determines the trnsaction cost, which is the product of the hourly price and the
corresponding variance percentage. In Table FA below, the day-ahead to hour-ahead transaction
cost is presented along with the total inter-hour cost for the east and west balancing authority
areas.
Table FA - Wind Inter-hour Hour-Ahead Balancing Transaction Costs
Determination of Incremental Reserve ("Intra-Hour") Reguirements
The indicated MW of additional reserves needed to balance the total intr-,hour wind generation
variations on PacifiCorp' s system due to incremental wind addition is unique to each region of
5 Values expressed are representative of the average cost to transact for the October 2008 though April 2009 perìod.
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appndix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
PacifiCorp's system. These values were derived by multiplying the within-hour standard
deviation from all wind projects in each of the three regions in this study by a Z score of l.96
(which is representative of the 97.5% confidence interval and PacifiCorp's CPS II requirement)
and is inclusive of all three sources of inter-hour varation discussed. Table F.5 presents the
corresponding reserve volumes for each region in the system and reflects fixed volumes of new
annual wind projects spread through 2021 consistent with the company's general long-term wind
acquisition strategy.
Table F.5 - Total Wind System Intra-hour Reserve Requirement (MW)
Existing and
Planned 1,284
throu h 2010
2011 200 312.7 17.3 17.3
2012 100 331.2 18.5 35.8
2013 100 339.1 7.9 43.7
2014 100 349.1 9.9 53.6
2015 150 367.8 18.8 72.4
2016 100 380.5 12.6 85.0
2017 100 385.1 4.6 89.7
2018 50 402.0 16.9 106.6
2019 200 420.9 18.9 l25.5
2020 200 433.2 12.3 137.7
2021 150 452.9 19.7 l57.5
Incremental Reserve ("Intra-Hour") Cost Calculation
The previous section described the calculation of MW quantities associated with adding wind
generation resources. In this section, the calculation of the cost associated with wind additions is
described.
As the company installs larger volumes of wind resource generation, the company's cost to
integrate these intermittent resources is anticipated to increase. This is because more and more
non-wind resources must be held back to allow flexibility to follow the intra-hour volatility of
the wind generation. Resources with greatest dispatch flexibility that are not already in use to
serve load are tyically used for integration.
The hour-to-hour dispatch of non-wind resources is not a trvial decision. The company's owned
hydro plants with storage capability and the Mid-Columbia hydro contrcts often provide the
needed flexibilty. However, these hydro resources are not of adequate size to integrate all of the
anticipated wind variability. Parially loaded gas turbines provide additional flexibility. Due to
its low cost, it is economically preferable that coal is fully utilzed to serve load rather than
backed off to provide wind integration.
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
The study assumes that PacifiCorp would balance the intermittency of the wind by holding
additional reserves on existing and future flexible resources. A reserve resource stack model was
developed that is used to estimate both in-the-money and out-of-the-money reserve costs. The
modeling of reserves added the requirements for load and reduced the requirement for hydro and
contract reserves in the valuation. In-the-money reserve costs are measured by calculating
market prices less the cost of thermal dispatch (fuel, variable O&M, CO2 emission costs, and
S02 emission costs). Out-of-the-money reserve costs are estimated by calculating the above-
market operating costs of a unit dispatched at minimum capacity divided by the total amount of
reserve capability available once at minimum load. The reserve requirement is then filled by the
lowest cost in-the-money or out-of-the-money thermal resource considering the resource reserve
capacities and unit ramp rates. PacifiCorp used market prices at Mona, Mid-Columbia, and Four
Comers with the $45 CO2 October 2008 price cure (2013 is the assumed start of CO2
regulation).
The wind reserve results reported in Table F.6 are at the system level and include both existing
and incremental wind projects. The reserve results are levelized on a real basis (with inflation
effects removed) for the study period 2009 to 2030 by dividing the reserve cost by the wind
expected megawatt-hour generation. The existing reserve available data ended in April 2014 so
the data was escalated using the prior three-year average. The reserve study considered heavy
load and light load hour for the analysis but was limited by the wind reserves calculated on an
annual basis.
Table F.6 - Costs for Wind Intra-hour Incremental Reserves
To determine the cost impact of using a lower C02 cost, PacifiCorp estimated the intra-hour
reserve cost assuming an $8 C02 tax. The wind reserve costs dropped to $7.51/M, expressed
in $2009, representing a 20-percent decline relative the cost under the $45 C02 cost study. It is
not necessarily tre; however, that increasing the cost of C02 equates to a higher reserve cost.
This relationship may be a function of near-term natural gas price cures.
Conclusion
The wind integration cost results are presented in Table F. 7, and range from $9.96/MWh to
$11.85IMWh for PacifiCorp's system in 2009 dollars, depending on the C02 tax level scenario.
The inter-hour wind results were developed by weighting the P ACW inter-hour wind costs by
30% (the PACW MW share of the system total) and the PACE wind costs by 70%, then adding
the system wind reserves.
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integraton Cost Update
Table F.7 - Wind Integration Costs (2009 Dollars)
The system wind integration costs are in line with the $1 1.75IMWh proxy value used for 2008
IRP portfolio modeling. Consequently, PacifiCorp did not conduct a wind resource sensitivity
study using PacifiCorp' s updated values._.I.III_"!~_.""
There are a number of wind integration tools, approaches, and potential external coordination
opportnities that the Company has implemented or is actively investigating. These include the
following.
. Real-Time Balancing: PacifiCorp has significantly advanced its forecasting process. At
present, forecasts in advance of real-time scheduling are done at 40 to 45-minutes prior to the
delivery hour and on a persistence forecast6. Operational experience has shown that
persistence based scheduling in real-time significantly reduces forecast error from using
model-based techniques in advance of 40 to 45-minutes prior to the delivery hour.
· Day-to-Day Balancing - PacifiCorp has retained an external firm to prepare forecasts every
six hours for the primar purose of day-to-day balancing activities. Finding tools to
enhancelimprove the day-to-day forecast is likely to lead to enhanced real-time forecasting
and, therefore, reduced load following reserve requirements during most hours. Specific tools
that wil require ongoing investigation and/or capital allocation may include: enhanced wind
project status feedback (to the external forecasting contractor); on-site radar devices; and/or
contracting with third paries who can provide regional real-time wind data or pooling
information with other control area operators to obtain consolidated forecasts.
. Peer Review - PacifiCorp wil consider incorporating the concept of the peer group review
for evaluation of its ongoing refinement of wind integration cost estimation methods as part
of the IRP public participation process. At present, the industr is suffering from the lack of
standardized wind integration study methods. As a result, it is necessary to examine each
such study to unravel its assumptions and methodology to be able to understand how it
compares to other studies.
6 Persistence based scheduling is the practice of scheduling production for the next hour based on then-curent
production.
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
. Curtailment Tools - A number of tools exist for either curailing wind project output during
those hours where a critical need exists or limiting the impact of wind resources on the
system during unusual ramping events. Such tools may include:
Ramp Rate Limiters: PacifiCorp's General Electric wind tubines in Wyoming include
a ramp rate limiter option. This option enables PacifiCorp operators to set a maximum
rate by which a wind project's output wil change over time (MW/minute) durng periods
when the wind is ramping up
Curtailment - PacifiCorp's General Electric wind turbines in Wyoming include a
curtailment option. This option enables PacifiCorp operators to curil or limit the output
of wind projects on short notice.
Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) - Many of PacifiCorp's PPAs include provisions
enabling the Company to curtail output for certin reliability events or for other reasons.
New PPAs all have such provisions. For example, PPAs entered into via the RFP process
all contain such curtilment provisions. Additionally, the company wil continuously
review and refine PP A contractual requirements for output forecasting, outage reporting
and curtailment.
Large Generator Interconnection Agreements (LGIA) - Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission LGIAs all contain provisions 7 enabling the transmission provider to curail
or disconnect generation if necessar for reliability reasons.
Mid-Hour Scheduling Practices - At present, the practice of the WECC only compels
mid-hour schedule changes when there is an "emergency" on the sink balancing authority
area. PacifiCorp currently has other third Part wind generators who schedule wind
generation for export out of P ACW and PACE. There is no established practice
compelling mid-hour schedule changes when the source balancing authority area is
having an "emergency" which results in other than comparable service for point-to-point
transmission customers as compared to network transmission customers. An evolution of
mid-hour scheduling practices at WECC for emergencies involving wind generation
could lead to a reduction in load following reserves being held. As the level of wind
resources being scheduled for export out of a balancing authority area increases, the need
for mid-hour schedule changes can be expected to significantly increase.
. Transmission Tariffs - A variety of new tariffs and/or tariff adjustments can be
expected to evolve over time:
Integration Tariff: At present, PacifiCorp does not have an integration tarff. An
integration tariff may be appropriate when a transmission provider must integrate
wind projects on an hourly basis that are scheduled off-system. As the demand for
renewable resources continues to grow in the WECC, PacifiCorp may see a growing
preponderance of interconnected wind projects being scheduled for export out of the
7 Appendix G to the LGIA
279
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integraton Cost Update
balancing authority area. This is the main reason that BP A created an integration
tariff. Integration tarffs attempt to appropriately capture the cost of intra-hour
integration costs. An integrtion taff also sends an appropriate price signal to
generator owners regarding the value of good forecasting.
Imbalance Tariff: PacifiCorp's imbalance tariff should be reviewed to determine if
it provides an appropriate price signal to generation owners for good forecasting
practices. It may be through the combination of an integration tariff and an
imbalance tariff with increasing penalties that wind generation owners wil have the
incentive to deploy effective forecasting tools.
LGIA: It may be necessar to evolve FERC standard LGIA language to capture the
forecasting diligence and curailment flexibility required of wind resources by
transmission operators who also operate as the balancing authority.
Incentives: If a transmission operator is also a regulated utility with load service
obligation and is subject to RPS, it may be necessary for FERC to consider incentives
for the entity who is the recipient of intermittent renewable resources (such as wind)
to also be the entity responsible for providing the load-following reserves. Since RPS
requirements are load-based, a fair application may be to require the load (i.e., sink
control area) receiving the intermittent resource to either provide the load-following
reserves necessary or telemeter the resource into its own balancing authority area.
· Wind-only Balancing Authorities - Some entities in the Pacific Northwest appear wiling
to pursue formation of a wind-only balancing authority. Here, an entity would contrbute
their wind resource into the balancing authority, schedule out of the balancing authority, and
be responsible for their pro-rata share of intra-hour integration costs. Any entity in the market
would be eligible to bid in load-following services to perform the balancing. This effort is
only at the conceptual stage.
· Reserve Sharing: The creation of bilateral arrngements in addition to that found in the
NWP.
· Balancing Market: The creation of a 10-minute balancing market would provide accurate
and appropriate price signals to owners of wind generation and would most likely be
incorporated into integration tarffs in lieu of capacity costs.
· ACE Pooling: ACE pooling is yet another way to spread or socialize volatility associated
with wind resources across multiple balancing authority areas.
· Independent System Operator (ISO): A reassessment of combining multiple balancing
authorities.
· Flexible Resources: Creating more accurate forecasts, curailing wind resources when
necessar, and deploying one or more of the tools discussed above, can be expected to help
optimize and minimize the amount of load-following reserves that a control area must carr
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
to integrate wind resources. Ultimately, this wil not be enough, leading to the need for
significant transmission investments and/or an iso. It is reasonable to expect that flexible
resources wil be required to manage the significant influx of wind resources that is likely to
result from a Federal RPS, or to respond to increasing RPS standards in states like California.
A significant policy issue centers on the payment for these flexible resources when they are
required to maintain control area reliability. A time honored alternative is to apply the costs
on a causation basis or socialize them in some fashion as deemed by the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission.
For the 2008 IRP, PacifiCorp used the Z statistic methodS for estimating peak load capacity
contrbutions on a monthly basis for incremental 100 MW blocks of wind capacity at each site
reflected in the IRP models. This method is based on estimating the effective load carring
capability of wind. No changes to the methodology took place for the capacity contrbution
update; wind output data was updated based on new information obtained for resources added to
PacifiCorp's system.
The results of the updated analysis as applied to the proxy (lOO-megawatt) wind resource options
are shown in Table F.8. The July peak load carring capability (PLCC) values are highlighted,
since these are used by the capacity expansion model for determining how capacity reliability
constraints are met.
Key observations from these results include the following:
. The incremental capacity contrbution within an area declines due to correlations (lack of
diversity) among wind projects in an area.
. The capacity contribution decline is greatest for projects with more varability of their on-
peak contributions.
. The capacity contribution varies over the year, primarily due to expected on-peak generation.
8 See, Dragoon, K., Dvortsov, V, "Z-method for power system resource adequacy applications" IEEE Transactions
on Power Systems (Volume 2 i, Issue 2, May 2006), pp. 982 - 988.
281
..PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update ..
Table F.8 - Incremental Capacity Contributions from Proxy Wind Resources ...
100 0.7 6.9 3.5 4.2 2.6 3.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 3.4 3.1 26.5 .200 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.4 .300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4
400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 .500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 .100 0.0 2.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.16.4
200 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 .
300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 .400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .
100 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 .200 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .
400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
100 4.2 30.5 14.4 0.0 1.2.9 5.2 8.1 3.5 0.8 13.2 10.3 .
200 0.1 26.6 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.1 0.3 0.0 8.0 6.0 .300 0.0 22.8 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.7
400 0.0 18.9 1.0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .
500 0.0 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .100 0.3 24.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 5.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 5.6
200 0.0 20.4 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.9 .
300 0.0 16.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .400 0.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
500 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .
100 0.0 17.9 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.0.0 0.0 3.1 1.0 .200 0.0 14.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
300 0.0 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .
400 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .500 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
100 2.8 3.0 4.8 8.0 4.6 6.7 4.7 6.3 8.7 10.2 1.8 27.9 .
200 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.2 1.7 6.0 4.4 2.7 5.0 4.1 0.0 21.2 .300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 5.2 4.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 14.6
400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 .
500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 .100 2.3 2.2 3.1 6.0 3.1 4.5 3.0 4.5 5.5 7.4 0.6 22.9
200 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3 0.9 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.2 0.0 16.3 .
300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 3.8 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 .400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .........
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
100 12.9 31.0 28.0 23.6 24.4 23.8 16.1 30.0 27.8 17.0 27.9 24.4
200 8.4 25.4 20.6 18.7 19.7 18.0 13.5 25.2 23.1 12.7 21.5 18.4
300 3.9 19.8 13.2 13.8 15.0 12.2 10.8 20.4 18.4 8.4 15.1 12.4
400 0.0 14.2 5.8 9.0 10.3 6.5 8.2 15.7 13.8 4.2 8.7 6.4500 0.0 8.6 0.0 4.1 5.7 0.7 5.5 10.9 9.1 0.0 2.4 0.4
100 10.6 25.3 23.9 18.7 20.0 20.1 12.4 24.8 22.2 13.1 23.0 20.7
200 7.0 20.2 17.1 14.7 15.9 15.1 10.7 20.7 18.2 9.3 17.1 15.5
300 3.4 15.0 10.2 10.6 11.9 10.1 9.0 16.6 14.3 5.5 11.2 10.4
400 0.0 9.9 3.4 6.5 7.8 5.1 7.2 12.5 10.3 1.8 5.3 5.2
500 0.0 4.8 0.0 2.4 3.8 0.2 5.5 8.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
100 13.6 11. 33.1 40.8 51.0 42.4 37.6 38.2 36.2 28.4 22.0 21.2
200 10.3 9.1 28.0 35.2 45.7 38.5 34.1 34.0 31.5 23.6 18.4 17.1
300 7.0 7.0 22.8 29.5 40.3 34.6 30.7 29.9 26.9 18.8 14.8 13.1
400 3.6 5.0 17.6 23.9 35.0 30.7 27.2 25.8 22.3 14.0 11.2 9.0
500 0.3 2.9 12.5 18.3 29.7 26.8 23.8 21.7 17.6 9.2 7.6 5.0
100 11.7 7.8 24.8 35.5 41.7 32.8 27.3 30.0 270 24.6 16.9 17.4
200 8.5 6.3 20.4 29.9 36.7 28.9 24.2 26.1 22.4 19.9 13.8 13.8
300 5.3 4.8 16.0 24.2 31.6 25.1 21.0 22.2 17.9 15.3 10.7 10.2
400 2.0 3.3 11. 18.6 26.5 21.2 17.9 18.3 13.3 10.6 7.7 6.6
500 0.0 1.8 7.1 13.0 21.4 17.4 14.7 14.4 8.8 6.0 4.6 3.1
100 3.2 3.4 7.2 11.0 6.3 9.6 7.2 8.5 13.2 13.0 3.6 33.3
200 0.0 0.0 1.9 5.6 2.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 8.2 5.5 0.0 26.3300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 5.5 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 19.2400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
100 2.7 2.4 5.6 8.8 4.6 7.0 5.2 6.7 9.8 10.0 2.7 27.1
200 0.0 0.0 1.7 5.4 1.9 6.2 4.8 3.3 6.1 3.8 0.0 20.4300 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 5.4 4.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 13.8
400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
100 2.1 1.5 3.4 6.4 3.0 4.6 3.3 4.9 6.2 7.3 1. 21.9200 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.1 1. 4.2 3.1 2.6 3.4 2.0 0.0 15.4
300 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 3.9 2.9 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.9400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
*The generation data used to determine the PLCC for the generic Uta wind resource was derived from a single bid
from the 2003 Renewables RFP. When compared to generation from qualifYing facilities within the general region,
the estimates appear reasonable.
283
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix F - Wind Integration Cost Update
284
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analysis
APPENDIX G - DSM DECREMENT ANALYSIS
This section presents the results of the Class 2 demand-side management decrement analysis. For
this analysis, the preferred portfolio was used to calculate the decrement value of various tyes
of Class 2 programs following the methodology described in Chapter 7. PacifiCorp wil use these
decrement values when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of potential new programs between IRP
cycles. Note that for the next IRP, the company intends to model Class 2 DSM programs as
options in the CEM.
Modeling Results
For the 2008 IRP, results are provided for both the $8 and $45 CO2 tax levels to provide a
perspective on CO2 tax impacts on DSM Decrement values. For each tax level there are two
tables and two charts providing an east and west nominal dollar per megawatt values. Tables G.l
and G.2 show the nominal results of the 12 11 decrement cases for each year of the 2017-year
study period. Although no resources were deferred or eliminated from the portfolio due to the
addition of Class 2 decrements, there is value in having to produce less generation to meet a
smaller load. Consistent with the results for the 2007 IRP, the residential air conditioning
decrements produce the highest value for both the east and west locations. The commercial
lighting, residential lighting, and system load shapes provide the lowest avoided costs. Much of
their end use shapes reduce loads durng a greater percentage of off-peak hours than the other
shapes and during all seasons, not just the summer.
Table G.1-Annual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $8 C02 Tax, 2010-2017
67% 40.46 48.34 50.81 56.11 62.06 68.65 73.0556.41
285
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analysis
Table G.2 - Annual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $8 C02 Tax, 2018-2026
77.82 76.59 77.55 75.90 77.41 82.75 85.88 88.18 88.50
Figues G.l and G.2 show the decrement costs, at the $8 CO2 tax level, for each end use along
with the average annual forward market price for that location: Palo Verde (PV) for the east and
Mid-Columbia (Mid-C) for the west.
Figure G.l - East Decrement Price Trends
$160
$150
$140
$130
$120
$110
~ $100
~- $90
$80
$70
$60
$50 . . . . . Palo Verd Fla C2__.LI60%
_Comm. COO 16%
--Lo Shape 65%
__.Cool7'
~Re. House 46%
_Comm. Ule49
$40
$30 ~ ~1 ~ ~3 ~ ~5 ~ ~ ~ ~9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
286
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analysis
Figure G.2 - West Decrement Price Trends
$160
$150
$140
$130
$120
$110
.c $100l~ $90
$80
...... ..
$70
$60
$50
$40
_Res. Cool 20"10
_Res. Ute 60%
__Res. House 35%
-- Loa Shape 67%
_Res. Heat 28%
_Comm. Cool 16%
_Comm. Lite 49%
. - -- . . Mid Coumbia Flat (2008)
$30 ~o ~1 ~2 ~3 ~ ~5 ~6 ~7 ~8 ~9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Table G.3 - Annual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $45 C02 Tax, 2010-2017
74.52 109.12 112.50 120.10 130.56 137.63
64.46 92.60 96.72 103.87 109.12 117.53
66.90 97.27 100.74 108.47 116.47 123.88
73.28 104.00 109.54 116.75 127.23 133.53
65.63 95.82 99.57 107.75 113.38 120.46
65.81 94.58 99.59 107.17 114.58 122.07
64.58 94.71 98.48 105.64 113.12 120.18
287
Paci~Corp - 2008 IRP Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analysis
Table G.4 - Annual Nominal Avoided Costs for Decrements, $45 C02 Tax, 2018-2026
142.50 145.06 152.31 146.21 150.59 156.77 159.62 152.27 148.50
120.50 118.93 122.56 123.06 127.82 133.85 136.06 133.37 130.60
126.32 127.27 132.71 130.32 135.19 140.90 141.74 138.77 136.02
138.41 139.31 146.46 140.89 148.89 152.79 158.48 149.99 147.43
124.10 122.40 129.88 126.73 132.48 138.68 139.15 134.55 132.83
124.51 124.80 131.95 128.38 134.59 139.90 141.22 136.24 134.93
123.39 122.35 129.20 125.80 131.20 137.05 137.61 134.76 132.21
Figues G.I 3 and G.2 3 show the decrement costs, at the $45 C02 tax level, for each end use
along with the average annual forward market price for that location: Palo Verde (PV) for the
east and Mid-Columbia (Mid-C) for the west.
Figure G.3 - East Decrement Price Trends for $45 C02 Tax Level
$200
$190
$180
$170
$160
$150
$140
$130
J:$120~!$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
"".
_Res Co 7%
_Res. Hou 46
--Re. Lit 60%
. . . . . PV Fla (208 $4 CO2)
_Comm. Co 18%_Com. Ut 49
--Load Sh_ 85%
~o ~1 ~2 ~3 ~4 ~5 ~ .~ ~8 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
288
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analyis
Figure G.4 - West Decrement Price Trends for $45 C02 Tax Level
$200
$190
$180
$170
$160
$150
$140
$130
~ $120
! $110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
..~~~~~~~~...~.~~.,".....-.....,.-...... ..'".... ...~~~....~.--v~
~....
Il11/)~~_Comm. COOL 16% __Res. Cool 20%
_Res. Heat 28%__Res. Hous 35%.__Com. LIte 49%_Res. Lite 60%
-+Lo Shape 87%. . .- . . Mid-C Flat (2008 $45 CO2)
$50
$40
$30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
289
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix G - DSM Decrement Analysis
290
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix H - Additional L&R Balance Information
APPENDIX H - LOAD AND RESOURCE BALANCE WITH LAKE SIDE II
INCLUDED AS A PLANNED RESOURCE IN 2012
The following tables and charts report load and resource balance information for capacity and
energy assuming that the Lake Side II combined-cycle plant (with a 596 MW summer capability)
is included as a planned resource in 2012. As noted in the IRP main volume, PacifiCorp's initial
portfolio analysis assumed the inclusion of this resource.
Table H.t - Capacity Loads and Resources including Lake Side II (12%Target Reserve
Margin)
Calendar Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Hydro 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135
DSM 345 395 435 465 475 485 495 505 515 525
Renewable 157 157 157 157 157 157 154 154 154 154
Purchase 751 546 541 341 341 341 341 320 320 320
OF 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151
Interruptible 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237
Transfers 876 952 602 235 263 465 230 230 393 589
East Existing Resources 8,636 8,572 8,284 8,384 8,422 8,645 8,418 8,415 8,589 8,571
Load 6,757 6,949 7,150 7,404 7,643 7,779 8,029 8,303 8,491 8,696
Sale 781 768 758 747 745 745 745 745 659 659
East Obligation 7,538 7,717 7,908 8,151 8,388 8,524 8,774 9,048 9,150 9,355
Planning reserves 745 785 803 853 880 895 924 958 969 993
Non-owned reserves 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
East Reserves 815 855 874 923 951 966 995 1,029 1,040 1,063
East Obligation + Reserves 8,352 8,572 8,781 9,074 9,339 9,490 9,769 10,077 10,190 10,418
East Position 284 1 (498)(690)(917)(845)(1,350)(1,662)(1,601)(1,848)
East Reserve Margin 16%12%6%4%1%2%(3%)(6%)(5%)(8%)
Hydro 1,315 1,218 1,216 980 1,009 1,046 1,157 1,150 1,149 1,146
DSM
Renewable 90 96 96 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Purchase 1,310 1,203 753 115 144 111 111 111 111 139
OF 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120
Transfers (878)(953)(603)(235)(264)(465)(229)(229)(392)(588)
West Existing Resources 4,507 4,242 4,150 3,649 3,691 3,492 3,840 3,833 3,654 3,483
Load 3,393 3,422 3,490 3,587 3,638 3,722 3,769 3,824 3,893 3,978
Sale 499 490 290 258 258 258 158 108 108 108
West Obligation 3,892 3,912 3,780 3,845 3,896 3,980 3,927 3,932 4,001 4,086
Planning reserves 310 325 363 448 450 464 458 459 467 474
Non-owned reserves 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
West Reserves 316 332 370 454 457 471 464 465 473 480
West Obligation + Reserves 4,208 4,243 4,149 4,299 4,353 4,451 4,391 4,397 4,474 4,566
West Position 299 (1)0 (650)(662)(958)(551)(564)(820)(1,082)
West Reserve Margin 20%12%12%(5%)(5%)(12%)(2%)(2%)(9%)(14%)
Total Resources 13,143 12,815 12,433 12,033 12,112 12,137 12,258 12,248 12,243 12,054
Obligation 11,430 11,628 11,687 11,996 12,284 12,50 12,701 12,980 13,151 13,441
Reserves 1,131 1,187 1,243 1,377 1,407 1,437 1,459 1,494 1,513 1,543
Obligation + Reserves 12,561 12,815 12,931 13,373 13,692 13,940 14,160 14,474 14,66 14,984
System Position 583 (0)(498)(1,340)(1,579)(1,803)(1,902)(2,226)(2,421)(2,930)
Reserve Margin 17%12%8%1%(1%)(2%)(3%)(5%)(6%)(10%)
291
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix H - Additional L&R Balance Informaton
Table H.2 - System Capacity Loads and Resources including Lake Side II (15% Target
Reserve Margin)
Calendar Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Obligation 11,430 11,628 11,687 11,996 12,284 12,504 12,701 12,980 13,151 13,441
Reserves 1,395 1,464 1,535 1,703 1,740 1,776 1,805 1,848 1,872 1,910
Obligation + Reserves (15%)12,824 13,092 13,222 13,698 14,024 14,280 14,505 14,828 15,023 15,351
System Position 319 (277)(789)(1,665)(1,912)(2,143)(2,247)(2,580)(2,780)(3,297)
Reserve Margin 18%13%8%1%(1%)(2%)(3%)(5%)(6%)(10%)
Figure H.l- System Capacity Position Trend including Lake Side II
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
~::
8,000
6,00
4,000
2,000
0
200
Obligation + Reserves (12% & 15%)
2016 2017 2018201020112012201320142015
292
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PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix H - Additional L&R Balance Information
Figure H.2 - East Capacity Position Trend including Lake Side II
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,00
10,000
~:;
8,00
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
209
Obligation + Reserves (12% & 15%).~.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Figure H.3 - System Average Monthly and Annual Energy Balances including Lake Side II
3,00
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
~0:;
(500)
(1,000)
(1,500)
(2,000)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~: :! ~ : ~ a: ~ ~ i: S ~ tl .c .: .. .: c: a: ~ ~ c: .. .. .: C:.. .. .: ê .. .. 11 é .. ~ t1 C' .. S 7Í~ ~ao ~ ~a8~ ~ao ~ ~a8~ ~a8~ ~a8 ~ ~a8~ ~ao ~ ~~ 0 ~ ~~ 0
293
PacifiCorp - 2008 IRP Appendix H - Addrtonal L&R Balance Information
Figure H.4 - East Average Monthly and Annual Energy Balances including Lake Side II
3,000
2,500
2,00
1,500
1,000
500
..
~0
(500)
(1,000)
(1,500)'i&%J Annual Balance
-Monthly Balance
(2,000)
~ æ9 9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ : ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~9~~~~ ~~~. ~~~. ~~~' t~~. ~~tt ' ~~~' ~~~. ~~~. ~~~l ~a 8~ ~a 0 l ~a 8 l ~a 0 l ~a 0 l ~a 0 l ~a 0 l ~a 8 l ~a8 l ~a 0
294
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