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HomeMy WebLinkAbout19901109Reading Direct.pdf... ~ .... "on Idaho Publlc Utmfles CommlSSl Office of the Secretary RECEIVED NOV9-1990 Boise. idahO i...~ BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF IDAHO POWER COMPANY FOR AUTHORITY TO RATE BASE THE INVSTMENT REQUIRED FOR THE REBUILD OF THE SWAN FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) CASE NO. IPC-E-90-2 DIRECT ~ESTIMONY OF DON READING, PH. D. ON BEHALF OF THE INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS OF IDAHO POWER NOVEBER 9, 1990 /7~l.L .t ,l 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 A. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. Q.WOULD YOU PLEASE STATE YOUR NAME AND ADDRESS? A.Don Reading, 1311 North 18th Street, Boise, Idaho 83702. Q.DO YOU HAVE AN APPENDIX THAT DESCRIBES YOUR EDUCATIONAL AND OCCUPATIONAL HISTORY AND YOUR QUALIFICATIONS IN REGULATORY AND UTILITY ECONOMICS? A.Yes. Appendix I, attached to my testimony, was prepared for this purpose. Q.DO YOU HAVE AN EXHIBIT WHICH SUPPORTS YOUR TESTIMONY? A.Yes. I have an exhibit consisting of one schedule which was prepared under my supervision. Q.WHT IS THE PURPOSE OF YOUR TESTIMONY? Our firm was retained by the Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power (ICIP) to -examine the request of Idaho Power Company (Idaho Power or the Company) for rate basing of the reconstruction costs associated with the reconstruction of the Swan Falls powerhouse and generating facilities. My testimony has three sections. First, I review the Company's request and my concerns. Second, I present 2.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A. 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. the Commission with suggestions concerning assigning a value to the Swan Falls proj ect. Third, I sumarize my recommendations and conclusions. Q.LET'S TU TO THE FIRST SECTION OF YOUR TESTIMONY. WOULD YOU PLEASE DESCRIBE THE COMPANY'S REQUEST? Certainly. The Company is proposing to expand its generating facilities at Swan Falls. Al though this reconstruction does not require that the Company obtain a Certificate of Pulic Convenience and Necessity before reconstruction begins, it must submit to a review of the rebuild by the Commission. In its Application concerning this review the Company is also requesting that the Commission approve rate base treatment for the proj ect before reconstruction begins. In return for this preapproval, the Company agrees to "cap" the capital cost of the proj ect at $80,285,000, barring several uncertainties. The Company is proposing to retire the existing 10.4 Mw powerhouse at Swan Falls and redevelop the project to include a new 3.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. I powerhouse with two generating units totaling 25 Mw of capacity, a new switchyard, and a new transmission line, together with certain existing project works. (Application, p. 2.) In its Application the Company states that Swan Falls should be added to rate base 2 3 4 5 6 7 upon completion of reconstruction. The Company further describes the purported benefits of the project as follows: The Project has been, and will continue to be, integral to Idaho Power's Snake River 8 9 10 11 12 13 hydroelectric system and will 14 continue to be used to serve 15 retail and firm wholesale load. 16 Reconstruction of the Swan Falls 17 facilities is also integral to retention of Idaho's water18 19 resources for the publ ic interest of the state. The20 21 Proj ect is a non-deferrable resource in that the physical state of the plant requires 22 23 24 current, not future, 4.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 .. 1 reconstruction and 2 rehabilitation of the resource 3 to maintain safety and operational standards.4 5 6 (Application, p. 4.) Similarly, the Company points out that the water rights associated with Swan Falls are critical to the ability of the state and the Company to protect the minimum flows established by the Swan Falls Agreement and the Water Plan. Protection of the Company's rights at Swan Falls has the effect of 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 assuring a water supply at its downstream and 14 upstream plants. (Application, p. 5.) While I do not dispute the importance of these water rights, they should not be used as the sole basis for justifying the more than $80,000,000 in reconstruction expenditures and a doubling of the size of the Swan Falls facility. The reasonable costs that legitimately should be passed on to ratepayers and the need for the Company to retain its water rights are in many aspects separate 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 issues. 5.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. Q.HAS THE COMMISSION ISSUED ANY ORDERS THAT GIVE DIRECTION WITH RESPECT TO THE COMPANY'S DECISION TO REBUILD SWAN FALLS? A.Yes, it has. In Order No. 19623, issued in Case No. U-1006-240 on April 24, 1985, the Commission warned: We put Idaho Power on explicit notice, however, that before it undertakes any substantial reconstruction or replacement of the Swan Falls facility, other than improvement or reconstruction of the existing spillway, it must first demonstrate to this Commission in a formal proceeding that the proj ect is the least-cost method of acquiring a new resource for its system. (Idaho Pul ic utilities Commission, Order No. 19623, p. 1.) In addressing the above language in a subsequent Order the Commission noted that it required Idaho Power "to bring any rebuild of 6.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. 1 the Swan Falls project and increase in its 2 capacity to the Commission's attention in much the same manner that it would file a3 4 6 certificate for a new project." (Idaho Pulic utilities Commission, Order No. 23380, p. 2.) The Commission further cautioned Idaho Power: 5 7 We put Idaho Power on formal notice that it acts under its8 9 own peril for costs associated 10 with the Swan Falls rebuild 11 until such time as the Company is prepared to submit its definitive cost estimate and to 12 13 14 demonstrate that the proj ect will be cost-effective. As we15 16 stated in the -197 case, the year of "hell-or-high-water-17 18 financing" is over. The 19 ratepayer should not be at risk if management commences construction before i t receives 20 21 22 a definitive cost estimate, or 23 before it has an approved water 24 right, or if it fails to study 7.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. reasonable alternative projects, or if the project itself is not cost-effective compared to power that is readily available from competitors. (Idaho Pulic utilities Commission, Order No. 19623, quoting Order No. 19129.) The Commission has clearly warned the Company that its decision to rebuild the Swan Falls proj ect and the costs of that rebuild will be critically examined. Q.DO YOU BELIEV THAT THE INFORMTION PROVIDED BY THE COMPANY IS AN ADEQUATE RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION? A.No, I do not. The Company has provided very little evidence in its Application concerning the cost effectiveness of the Swan Falls proj ect and has not shown that the proj ect is the least-costly al ternati ve available to ratepayers. While I do not dispute the many benefits of hydro projects over other forms of generation, I do not believe these benefits should automatically be the basis upon which one determines the prudence of the proj ect. 8.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. 1 Likewise, I understand the importance of the water rights associated with the Swan Falls proj ect. This nevertheless should not be used as the sole basis for determining that the Company's decision to rebuild Swan Falls is reasonable. Instead, water rights should be one of many factors examined by the Company and the Commission when assessing the Swan Falls rebuild decision and its associated 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 costs. 11 The Company has not presented evidence showing that the reconstruction of the Swan Falls proj ect is less costly than installation 12 13 14 of demand-side management measures. Moreover, 15 the Company has not presented any evidence concerning the need for this proj ect. Numerous other questions concerning the 16 17 18 reconstruction remain unanswered and would 19 require thorough analysis on the part of Staff and interveners as well as the Commission20 21 before a final determination of prudence could 22 be made. For example, the Company has not 23 explained the rationale behind its 25% contingency factor--which is considerably24 9.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 A. 24 .. higher than the 5% contingency factor used for the Milner proj ect. Satisfactory reasons for these differences may exist, but they have not been offered by the Company. Similarly, Idaho Power Company has not explained in sufficient detail the other components of its "commi tment estimate. " The Company has failed to provide information concerning the estimated cost per Q. kwh of this proj ect. Nor has it shown that the increase in the size of the proj ect is optimal. Another factor that I find troubling is the difference in the cost per kw of Swan Falls and Milner. The Company's estimated cost per kw of Swan Falls is $3,244, which is almost three times as high as Milner at $1,187 per kw, and an alarming amount on its face. Again, there may be valid reasons for this difference, but they have not been advanced by the Company. DO YOU SEE ANY OTHER PROBLE WITH TH COMPANY'S REQUEST? Yes. There are several serious problems with the Company's proposal. If the Commission 10.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 .. 1 grants the Company's request for preapproval of the rate base treatment of Swan Falls, it will effectively foreclose its ability to 2 3 4 examine the prudence of the Company's decision-making between the time reconstruction begins and the time the project is completed, even though major changes of circumstances might arise in the interim. For example, changes in load growth might dictate 5 6 7 8 9 10 changes in the pace of construction of the proj ect, either to meet increased load or to avoid installing excess capacity. Or technological progress might call for canceling the Swan Falls project and replacing it with a more cost-effective alternative. Or 11 12 13 14 15 16 heightened environmental restrictions might impose an intolerable burden of added cost on the Swan Falls project, destroying its economic feasibility. 17 18 19 20 Any of these events, as well as others, 21 should invite the Company to reevaluate its ini tial reconstruction decision and possibly reverse or modify it. Yet, under the 22 23 24 Company's proposal, such events would be 11.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. irrelevant to the determination of the plant costs to be included in rate base and paid for by ratepayers. Instead, that issue would be judged solely according to whether the Company had used "prudent and reasonable construction practices. " If Idaho Power is deemed to have done so, it wants to be guaranteed that it will be allowed full recovery of the cost of the Swan Falls proj ect, regardless of any economic, financial, technological, environmental, or regulatory events that might otherwise argue for alteration of the Company's ini tial decision. Q.DO YOU THINK THE COMMISSION SHOULD PREAPPROVE THE FUTURE RATE BASE TREATMNT OF THE RECONSTRUCTION COSTS OF SWAN FALLS? A.Definitely not. I see no reason for the Commission to preapprove the future rate base treatment of the reconstruction costs of Swan Falls. The Company's position in this regard is similar to the one it has taken concerning the issuance of a certificate of Pulic Convenience for the Milner proj ect. The Company is asking the Commission to guarantee 12.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 .. that the proj ect 's costs will be automatically included in rate base regardless of the circumstances, as long as the Company uses "reasonable and prudent construction practices. " This is not a defensible posture. The Commission's authorization to begin reconstruction of Swan Falls is not a requirement that construction begin, nor an endorsement of the decision to begin construction. A determination of the rate base treatment of the Swan Falls project should be made only after the proj ect is completed and on line. I don't believe that it is appropriate or in the public interest for the Commission to determine today the future rate base treatment of a proj ect that has not begu reconstruction much less been Q. completed. AR THERE OTHER UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWAN FALLS PROJECT THT WOULD PRECLUDE THE COMMISSION FROM PREPPROVING A RATE BASE CAP FOR TH SWAN FAL REBUILD? 13.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 .. A.Yes. In its decision concerning Valmy II the Commission stated that its statutory charge was to "establish 'just and reasonable' rates." (Idaho Pulic utilities Commission, Order No. 20610, p. 105.) That requires the Commission to know the final just and reasonable cost of the proj ect. But it is impossible for the Commission at this time even to estimate the completed cost of the Swan Falls project and its associated running costs. There are at least two reasons for this inability. First, the "cap" set by the Company is contingent upon several favorable predictions. That is, if inflation heats up or the scope of the proj ect changes, then under the Company's proposal, its "commitment estimate" would no longer hold as the cap for the proj ect 's capital cost. (I discuss this in greater detail below.) Second, while the Company itself can only estimate the cost per kwh of the project, it hasn't even provided that information to the Commission. 14.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 .. For these and other reasons, the Company cannot accurately estimate the cost per kwh of the Swan Falls project. Nor can the Commission determine today that inclusion of the capital cost of plant in rate base would produce just and reasonable rates. Q.WHT is YOUR NEXT CONCERN ABOUT TH COMPANY'S PROPOSAL? A.The Company has offered to treat what its "commitment estimate" of the capital cost of Swan Falls as a cap on the amount to be preapproved for rate base. While the Company's proposal has surface appeal, there are several arguents, in addition to those already discussed, against the Commission's adopting the Company's quid pro quo. First, there no guarantee that the proposed cap will be at or below the commitment estimate. The Company notes that it is willing to commit to building the Proj ect for less than the commitment estimate, "as may be adjusted to account for documented changes in escalation rates or scope." 15.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. (Application, p. 8.) The Company elaborated on what is meant by changes in scope: 1) Force Majeure or acts of God impacting the construction 1 2) Design optimization for which increased energy more than offsets the increase in initial investment 1 3) Foundation or site condition significantly more expensive than indicated by exploratory drilling. (Ibid. ) The Company's reservations with respect to the cap do not guarantee the commitment estimate will be the upper bound of the amount of the plant that will be included in rate base. That is, little is left to affect the price of the plant that the Company has not already covered in its escalation and scope disclaimer. Q.AR THERE OTHER PROBLE WITH THE COMPAN'S CAP PROPOSAL? A.Yes. First, the Company does not define adequately define what is encompassed in its escalation disclaimer. Conceivably, any 16.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. I inflation costs above what is included in the 2 commi tment estimate would be grounds for the Company's adjusting its estimate upwards and including these increased costs in rate base. Yet, the Company doesn't explain the projected escalation rate included in its commitment 3 4 5 6 7 estimate. Hence, the Commission cannot know whether the Company is working from a tight8 9 budget or an ample one. Second, the Company' s expansive scope qualification can cover a multitude of 10 11 12 factors. Suppose, for example, that the Company decides to increase the size of the proj ect. Would it be fair to charge ratepayers for the additional costs without examining the Company's decision? But under 13 14 15 16 17 the Company's proposal, such a change would presumably come within its definition of scope and hence not be subject to further review. (It is noteworthy that many utilities involved 18 19 20 21 in the construction of large nuclear power plants cited changes in scope as the source of a significant percentage of their cost 22 23 24 overruns. ) 17.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. 1 Third, the Company's cap proposal is one-sided. The Company wants to increase the cap if major inflation occurs, but it does not 2 3 4 6 offer to reduce the cap if inflation subsides and falls significantly below the escalation allowance included in the Company's commitment 5 7 estimate. I see no reason for the Commission 8 to agree to such an unbalanced arrangement. Finaiiy, Idaho Power does not explain how its proposed 25% contingency fits in with its escalation and scope adjustors. In response to Staff's First Production Request the Company stated that the 25% contingency "is not a derived mathematical computation" but is "based on experience." (Response to Staff's First Production Request, No. 15, page 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 7. ) 18 Generally, a contingency of this nature is included in a cost estimate to cover such19 20 factors as changes in scope and escalation. Hence the Company has not only covered its uncertainties with its scope and inflation disclaimers but has inserted an added 21 22 23 24 substantial buffer in the form of a 18.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q. 11 A. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 .. contingency in its commitment estimate. While I am not opposed to the use of a contingency, (it is common practice), the Commission needs to realize how little risk the Company has assumed with respect to its proposal. (I am surprised that the Company has not included an caveat for increases in borrowing costs, but then again, this might be covered under the Company's escalation limitation.) WOULD YOU PLESE DISCUSS YOUR NEXT CONCERN? Yes. The Company's proposal assigns most of the risks of reconstructing Swan Falls to its ratepayers while eliminating most of the potential risks to its stockholders. Ratepayers would shoulder all the following: the risk of escalation of reconstruction costs, the risk of increased scope, the risk of load growth changes, the risk of technological changes, the risk of poor management decision-making (other than strict construction prudence), the risk of environmental changes, the risk of regulatory changes, the risk that the project will not be 19.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 .. 1 used and useful, and the risk that the project will not be economical.2 3 Idaho Power's stockholders, on the 4 other hand, would face only the risk that the Company would not use reasonable and prudent construction practices and the risk that some costs of the plant might not be allowed in rate base if the Company exceeded its cap. The latter risk is practically eliminated by the broadly defined escalation and scope reservations that accompany the Company's proposal. Clearly, while ratepayers would bear a great deal of risk, the stockholders would incur very little. Even though the Company's request shifts most of the risks associated with the 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Swan Falls proj ect to ratepayers, the Company has not offered to simultaneously reduce its cost of equity. In my opinion, if the Commission adopts the Company i s proposal, which I strongly recommend against, it should 18 19 20 21 22 also at a minimum reduce the Company's cost of equi ty below the Commission's last authorized23 20. Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. Q. return of 12.25%. (Idaho Pulic utilities Commission, Order No. 20924, p. 62.) WHY WOULD ADOPTION OF THE COMPANY i S PROPOSAL CALL FOR A REDUCTION IN IDAHO POWER'S COST OF EQUITY? A.It is a basic financial principle that the greater a security's risk, the higher the investor i S required return, and vice versa. If the Commission significantly reduces stockholder risk by adopting the Company's proposal, then it should reduce the Company i s cost of equity. In Idaho Power i s last rate proceeding, the Company's witness Mr. Bowers acknowledged this principle, testifying that "the greater a security i s risk the higher the required return for that risk." (Bowers Direct Testimony, Case No. U-1006-265, p. 31.) Mr. Bowers also testified that a risk-free rate of return can be approximated by using the interest rate on long-term government bonds. (Ibid., p. 30.) Recently, long-term (30-year) U. S. Treasury Bonds have been carrying an interest rate of about 9.0%, which is significantly below the Company i s 21.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 A. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. authorized return on equity. Under the Company i s proposal, the equity risk supporting the Company i s investment in the Swan Falls proj ect would more closely approximate that of a government bond than of a security yielding 12.25%, the Commission i s last authorized return. Q.CAN YOU ILLUSTRATE THE IMPACT OF EQUITABLE RATEPAYER TRETMNT, ASSUMING ACCEPTANCE OF THE COMPANY i S PROPOSAL? Yes. Let us assume that the Company's investment in Swan Falls (and in the Milner project) is financed in the same proportion as the Company iS capital structure, and that the investor i s return requirement on the equity portion of this investment is approximately 10% (one percentage point above the measure of a risk-free rate), this would indicate that the Company i s cost of equity should be reduced by about a quarter of one percent (0. 25%) to 12.0%, using the Commission i s last authorized return. I have depicted these calculations on my Schedule 1. The Company earned 13.86% on average equity during 1989. I therefore 22.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 A. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 .. recommend that the Commission, if it accepts Idaho Power's proposals in this case, it also investigate the Company's earnings situation and authorize a rate decrease, if one is seen to be warranted. Indeed, it appears that absent any such decrease, an earning investigation is called for. Q.LET'S TU TO THE SECOND SECTION OF YOUR TESTIMONY. WOULD YOU BRIEFLY DISCUSS WHT THE COMMISSION SHOULD CONSIDER WHN DETERMINING THE VALUE OF THE SWAN FALL PROJECT ONCE IT IS COMPLETED AND ON LINE? Certainly. Let me emphasize that the following suggestions apply only to a completed project that is ready for consideration for inclusion in rate base. I do not believe it is appropriate or in the public interest to predetermine the investment value of the Milner project at this time. Numerous events could intervene before the proj ect enters commercial operation- -events that could render unnecessary or erroneous any such determination made today. 23.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. 1 In evaluating a plant to enter rate base, the Commission should study a variety of factors of two kinds: those related to the 2 3 4 prudence of management's decision-making, and those related to the economics of the5 6 situation. The former include such things as the reasonableness of the Company's decision to begin construction of the project, the reasonableness of the construction practices, the reasonableness of feasibility studies undertaken, etc. The latter include the used-and-useful issue and the economic value 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 of the plant. 14 In determining a plant's economic 15 value, the Commission should of course 16 consider an assortment of factors, but one 17 particularly useful method of validating total cost is to compare the cost per kwh of the proj ect to the Company's avoided cost rate. The latter should provide a upper limit on the economic value of the project. In this particular instance, however, there are reasons for the Swan Falls proj ect 's coming in below avoided cost: the dam exists, permits 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 24.Reading, Di Industrial customers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 .. 1 have already been obtained, original engineering completed, and site preparation accomplished. When evaluating the cost per kwh of Swan Falls versus avoided costs the Commission 2 3 4 S 6 needs to ensure that the basis of the 7 measurement is consistent. Only then can a appropriate evaluation be made as to the least-cost path of resource acquisition for the Company. For example, since avoided costs are determined over just a 20-year period, they are not consistent with the cost per kwh of Swan Falls, which is determined over a SO-year period. All else being equal, a 20-year avoided cost rate would be significantly less than a SO-year avoided cost 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 lS 16 17 rate. In addition, for comparison purposes, a 20-year amortization of Swan Falls will produce a significantly more expensive plant than Idaho Power's current estimate for Swan 18 19 20 21 Falls. 22 Other methods can also be used to 23 determine the economic value of the plant. They include the amount of plant costs24 2S.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 A. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 .. reasonably incurred during the reconstruction of Swan Falls, the fair market value of the plant, and the cost of al ternati ve form of reliable power. Regardless of what method is used, now is not the time to make this decision. Determining whether the plant should be included in rate base (and, if so, to what extent) can only be done after the project is completed and on line. Q.WOULD YOU PLEASE SUMIZE YOUR RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS? Certainly. I believe the Commission should rej ect the Company's proposal for preapproval of the rate basing of the Swan Falls project. I do not believe it would be appropriate or in the public interest for the Commission now to determine the rate base treatment or regulatory status of a proj ect on which reconstruction has not yet even begun. The Company's request has several serious flaws. First, the Company's proposal should be rej ected because it would require the Commission to ignore many relevant 26. Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. 1 circumstances that would otherwise force the 2 Company to alter its initial course of action. The Commission would be barred from addressing3 4 6 the prudence of the Company's management decision-making process during the reconstruction period. If the Commission adopts the Company's proposal for preapproval of the rate base treatment of Swan Falls, then it should reject the Company's application on the grounds that it is deficient. Many points relevant to a decision of this magnitude remain unaddressed by the Company. Idaho Power has not shown that the project is economical, nor that it is the least-cost alternative, nor that its 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 enlargement is even needed. The Company has been previously warned about these factors, yet it has failed to provide information that would allow the Commission to evaluate the 17 18 19 20 reasonableness of its decision. 21 Second, the Commission should not be 22 lulled into thinking the Company's offer to cap the cost of the project is an adequate consideration for preapproval for the rate 23 24 27.Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 .. 1 base treatment of Swan Falls. The escalation 2 and scope reservations attached to the 3 Company's cap provide no guarantee that the final cost of the project will not exceed the4 5 6 commitment estimate. Rather, the escalation and scope give the Company considerable leeway in justifying increases in cost beyond the7 8 "commitment estimate." Moreover, the 9 Company's cap proposal is one-sided. While the Company wants the Commission to agree to cost increases if the scope of the project 10 11 12 enlarges or if escalation occurs, it has not 13 proposed that the cap be adjusted downward 14 under the converse circumstances. 15 Third, the Company's proposal saddles ratepayers with most of the risks of reconstruction, while eliminating most of the risks to shareholders. Despi te this, the Company has not offered to lower its cost of equity. In my opinion, if the Commission adopts the Company's proposal to preapprove the rate base treatment of the Swan Falls 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 proj ect, it should adj ust the Company's cost 28.Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Q. 18 19 A. .. of equity to be consistent with its reduced risk. Finally, I have offered some suggestions concerning the factors the Commission should consider once the Swan Falls reconstruction is completed and its costs are considered for rate base treatment. Among them is a comparison of the cost per kwh of the proj ect with the Company's avoided cost, establishing a reasonable upper limit on the economic value of the project. other relevant data are the amount of plant costs reasonably incurred in the Swan Falls reconstruction, the fair market value of the plant and the energy it produces, and the cost of alternative forms of reliable power. DOES THIS COMPLETE YOUR TESTIMONY PREFILED ON NOVEBER 9, 1990? Yes, it does. 29.Reading, Di Industriai Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS OF IDAHO POWER CASE NO. IPC-E-90-2 SCHEDULE 1 IDAHO POWER COMPANY CHAGE IN COST OF EQUITY (000) Amount Ratio 48.9%4.9 46.2 100.0% Common Equity Preferred Stock Long-term Debt $ 589,46258,923557.851 $1,206,236 Investment in Swan Falls and Milner Equi ty Ratio Swan Falls and Milner financed by Equity $ 150,29048.9% $ 73,492 Amount ~Cost Swan Falls and Milner financed by Equity 1989 Common Equity $ 73,492 x 10.00% = 589.462 x 12.25% = $662,954 $ 7,34972.209 $79,558 Cost of Equity: $79,558 / $662,954 = 12.00% Source: Idaho Power Company, 1989 Annual Report¡ Exhibit 3, Case No. IPC-E-90-8¡ Attachment 3, Supplemental Application, Case No. IPC-E-90-2¡ and Idaho Pulic utilities Commission, Order No. 20924. Exhibi t 1, page 1Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho PowerIPC-E-90-2 ...... CETIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY that I have this ~ day of Novemer, 1990, served the foregoing DIRECT PREPARD TESTIMONY OF DON READING ON BEHALF OF THE INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS OF IDAHO POWER, Case No. IPC-E-90-2, on all parties of record by hand delivering a copy thereof, to the following: Michael S. Gilmore Brad M. Purdy Idaho Pulic utilities Commission 472 W. Washington Boise, ID 83720 and by mailing a copy thereof, postage prepaid, to the following: Larry D. Ripley, Esq. Legal Department Idaho Power Company P.O. Box 70 Boise, ID 83707 David H. Hawk, Director Energy Natural Resources J .R. Simplot Company P.O. Box 27 Boise, ID 83707-0027 Steven L. Herndon, Esq. Legal Department Idaho Power Company P.O. Box 70 Boise, ID 83707 Harold C. Miles Idaho Consumer Affairs, Inc.316 15th Ave. S. Nampa, ID 83651 R. Scott Pasley Assistant General Counsel J .R. Simplot Company P.O. Box 27 Boise, ID 83707-0027 James N. Roethe, Esq. Pillsbury, Madison & Sutro P.O. Box 7880 San Francisco, CA 94120 R. Michael Southcombe, Esq. Clemons, Cosho & Humphrey 815 W. Washington Boise, ID 83702-5590 Afton Energy, Inc. c/o OWen H. Orndorff Orndorff & Peterson 1087 W. River st., suite 230 Boise, ID 83702-7035 ,BY~()~Peter ~ RCn CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE - PAGE 1 .. APPENIX I QUALFICATIONS Present OCcupation Q. WHT is YOUR PRESENT OCCUPATION? A. I am a consulting economist with Ben Johnson Associates, Inc., a firm of economic and analytic consultants specializing in the area of public utilityregulation. Educational Background Q. WHT is YOUR EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND? A. I graduated from Utah State University in 1962 with a Bachelor of Science degree in economics. I earned the Master of Science degree in economics at the University of Oregon in 1964. Finally, I received a Ph. D. in economics from Utah State University in 1972. The ti tIe of my doctoral dissertation was New Deal Expenditures in the 48 States. 1933-1939. Q. HAVE YOU RECEIVED ANY ACADEMIC HONORS OR AWARDS? A. Yes. I am a member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, the national economics honorary, and was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship in 1967. Clients Q. WHT TYPES OF CLIENTS EMPLOY YOUR FIRM? A. Much of our work is performed on behalf of public agencies at every level of government involved in utility regulation. These agencies include stateregulatory commissions, public counsels, attorneys general, and local governments, among others. We are also employed by various private organizations andfirms, both regulated and unregulated. The diversity of our clientele is illustrated below. Exhibi t I, Page 1Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. Regulatory Commissions Alabama Pulic Service Commission - Public Staff for utility Consumer Protection Alaska Pulic utilities Commission Arizona Corporation Commission Arkansas Pulic Service Commission District of Columbia Pulic Service Commission Idaho Pulic utilities Commission Idaho State Tax Commission Kansas State Corporation Commission Maine Public utilities Commission Missouri Pulic Service Commission North Carolina utilities Commission - Public Staff Oklahoma Corporation Commission Ontario Ministry of Culture and Communications Texas Pulic utilities Commission Virginia Corporation Commission Washington utilities and Transportation Commission West Virginia Pulic Service Commission - Division of Consumer Advocate Wisconsin Pulic Service Commission Public Counsels Arizona Residential utility Consumers Office Colorado Office of Consumer Services Connecticut Consumer Counsel District of Columia Office of People's Counsel Florida Public Counsel Georgia Consumers' utility Counsel Illinois Small Business utility Advocate Office Indiana Office of the utility Consumer Counselor Maryland Office of People's Counsel Minnesota Office of Consumer Services Missouri Pulic Counsel New Hampshire Consumer Counsel Ohio Consumer Counsel Pennsyl vania Office of Consumer Advocate Utah Department of Business Regulation - Committee of Consumer Services Exhibi t I, Page 2Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. Attorneys General Arkansas Attorney General Florida Attorney General - Antitrust Division Idaho Attorney General Kentucky Attorney General Michigan Attorney General Minnesota Attorney General Nevada Attorney General's Office of Advocate for Customers of Pulic utilities South Carolina Attorney General Virginia Attorney General Washington Attorney General Local Governments City of Austin, TXCi ty of Corpus Christi, TX City of Dallas, TX City of EI Paso, TX City of Fort Worth, TX City of Galveston, TX ci ty of Houston, TX City of Lubbock, TX City of Norfolk, VA City of Phoenix, AZ City of Richmond, VA ci ty of San Antonio, TX City of Suffolk, VA City of Tucson, AZ county of Augusta, VA County of Henrico, VA County of York, VA Town of Ashland, VA Town of Blacksburg, VA Town of Pecos City, TX Other Government Agencies Canada - Department of Communications United States Department of Justice - Antitrust Division State of Florida - Department of General Services Provincial Governments of Canada Exhibi t I, Page 3Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. Regulated Firms Americall LDC, Inc. E. Ri tter Telephone Company Florida Association of Concerned Telephone Companies, Inc.Holywell, Inc. Louisiana/Mississippi Resellers Association Madison County Telephone Company Mountain View Telephone Company Nevada Power Company Network I, Inc. North American Telephone Company North Carolina Long Distance AssociationPan-Alberta Gas, Ltd.Peninsula Communications, Inc. RDM Telephone Systems South Carolina Long Distance Association Stanton Telephone Teleconnect CompanyTransamericall, Inc. Yelcot Telephone Company, Inc. Other Private Organizations Arizona Center for Law in the Pulic Interest Casco Bank and Trust Citizens' utility Board of Wisconsin Colorado Energy Advocacy Office East Maine Medical Center Georgia Legal Services Program Harris Corporation Interstate Securities Corporation J .R. Simplot Company Merrill Trust Company PenBay Memorial Hospital Prior Exrience Q. BEFORE BECOMING A CONSULTAN, WHERE WERE YOU PROFESSIONALLY EMPLOYED, AND IN WHT CAPACITIES? A. From 1981 to 1986 I was Economist and Director of Policy and Administration for the Idaho Public utilities Commission. My duties at the IPUC included, in addition to my testimony, the preparation of special reports in the areas of forecasting, demand studies, and economic analysis. As Staff Director I was charged Exhibit I, Page 4Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. wi th overseeing the personnel and budget functions, and wi th representing the Commission before the state legislature, at the governor's office, before the utility commissions of other states and before such federal and regional entities as the Bonneville Power Administration, the Northwest Power Planning Council, and the Pul ic Power Council. Before that time I taught economics at Middle Tennessee state University (Assistant Professor, 1968-70), Idaho state University (Assistant and Associate Professor, 1970-80), and the University of Hawaii at Hilo (Associate Professor, 1980-81). Subj ects taught included economic theory and history, quantitative analysis, econometrics, statistics, labor economics, financial institutions, and international economics. In addition, between 1970 and 1986 I prepared reports and expert testimony on loss of earnings in a numer of legal actions respecting wrongful injury and wrongful death. Al though many of these cases were settled without trial, I gave expert testimony in courton numerous occasions. Q. HAVE YOU TESTIFIED PREVIOUSLY AS AN EXPERT WITNESS IN THE ARA OF PUBLIC UTILITY REGULATION? A. Yes. I have provided or am preparing expert testimony on 19 occasions in proceedings before regulatory commissions in Alaska, California, Colorado, District of Columia, Idaho, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Washington, and before the Interstate Commerce Commission. In addition, I have served as a hearing examiner in Idaho. My testimony in these proceedings dealt with electric power planning and forecasting, power supply models, avoided costs, demand elasticity models, regional economic conditions affecting public utilities, and cost of service. Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS? A. Yes. I have authored or co-authored more than 15 books and articles, including the following: Exhibi t I, Page 5 Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .. "Post-PUPA views," Proceedings of the NARUC Biennial Regulatory Conference, September 1982. An Input-Output Analysis of the Impact from Proposed Mining in the Challis Area (with R. Davies), Public Policy Research Center, Idaho State University, February 1980. .'The Paradox of Voting," Reason 10 (April 1979): 39- 41 "Index of Prices Received by Idaho Farmers, II Idaho Economiç Indicators, July 1978 (also continuing series publishedmonthly) . "Income Distribution in Idaho Counties," Idaho Buslness and Economics Review. Future-Gram. ' C' Serles: Current Trends and Foreçasts, ' C' Series (with R. Foster, et al.), Government Research Institute of Idaho State Uni versi ty and the Southeast Idaho Council of Governments, Pocatello, Idaho, June 1977. An Emlrical Analysls of Predlctors of Inçome Dlstrlbutlon Effects of Water Quality Controls (with J. Keith, et al.), Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, September 1976. Reglonal Growth and Fiscal Impact in Southeast Idaho (with V. Hj elm et al.), Government Research Institute of IdahoState Uni versi ty and the Southeast Idaho Council of Governments, Pocatello, Idaho, January 1976. Phosphate and Southeast: A SOClo Ecanomlc Analysls (with J. Eyre et al.), Governent Research Institute of Idaho StateUniversity and the Southeast Idaho Council of Governents, Pocatello, Idaho, August 1975. Estlmating General Fund Revenues of the state of Idaho (with S. Ghazanfar .and D. Holley), Center for Business and Economic Research, Boise State University, June 1975. "Pocatello/Bannock County Economic Impact through 1978" (with R. R. Johnson), funded by the City of Pocatello (A Regional Input-Output Model), December 1975. "A Note on the Distribution of Federal Expenditures: An Interstate Comparison, 1933-1939 and 1961-1965," Aierlçan Economist 18, no. 2 (Fall 1974): 125-128. Exhibi t I, Page 6Reading, Di Industrial Customers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 .... "New Deal Activity and the states, 1933-1939," JQurnal Qf Economic History 33 (December 1973): 792-810. "Utah's Steel Industry" (with Reid R. Durtschi and Bartell Jensen), Utah State University Research Paper, 1965. Exhibi t I, Page 7Reading, Di Industrial CUstomers of Idaho Power IPC-E-90-2 Page 6 15 15 16 16 24 24 .. ERRTA SHEET OF DON READING, Ph. D. BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION Case No. IPC-E-90-2 TESTIMONY Line Change From Change To . 5 9 17 8 22 6 11 April 24, 1985 treat what its there nocondition does not defineincludeinclude April 23, 1985treat its there is noconditions does notincludesincludes