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HomeMy WebLinkAbout19901109Faull Direct.pdf../7¥?~ RE n:J LED o .,l,.in',U 9 p1rn¡ u 1?f1Uï . .. j .L:w I'"H,PU r1''' ~! TIES COl~;11'¥i¡SSJ :fA BEFORE THE IDAHO PULIC UTS COMMSSION IN TH MAITR OF THAPUCATION OF IDAHO POWER COMPAN FOR Å CER-TICATE OF PULIC CONVCE ANNECEIT FOR TI MTEG OFTH Ml HYROELC lROiCTOR IN TI ALTEATI A DET-ATION OF EX S1i\TUSFOR THMI HYROELECTC PROJE. ) CASE NO. IP-E-90- ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) DIRCT TESTIONY OF THOMA FAUL IDAHO PUUC UT COMMSSION NOVEER 97 199 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. Q.Please state your name and business address for the record. A.My name is Thomas Faull and my business address is 472 West Washington Street, Boise, Idaho. Q.By whom are you employed and in what capaci ty? A.I am employed by the Idaho Public utilities Commission as a Public utilities Engineer. Q.Have you included a statement of your qualifications in this testimony? A.Yes. Exhibit No. 101 is a statement of my qualifications. Q.What is the purpose of your testimony? A.The purpose of my testimony is to discuss the cost effectiveness of Idaho Power Company's (IPCo' s) proposed proj ect, to provide an engineering opinion as to the appropriateness of the project, and to recommend Commission action relative to the project. Q.Why is it important to know the cost effectiveness of a project when determining whether or not to grant it a Certificate for the present Public Necessity and Convenience (Certificate)? A.Although the basic criterion for granting a Certificate is "need for power", the criteria for determining the applicability of a Certificate to a IPC-E-90-8 11/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. specific resource should include the cost of generation from that resource relative to other potential resources. Q.What is the starting point for analyzing the cost effectiveness of this project? A.First, one must attempt to quantify the construction cost of the project, then translate that cost into a uni t cost of generating energy. Q.What do you estimate the cost of this project will be? A.Rather than estimating the construction cost of the project, I have accepted IPCo' s proposed cap on capital costs of $63,350,600 as a maximum (or worst-case) cost. Then, from that I estimate the 46 year levelized cost to ratepayers for this project will be $62. 73/MWh. Q.In his testimony Mr. Keen stated that he estimated the cost of energy from this project to be 52.93 mills /kWh ($52. 93/MWh) based on 60 years of water data or 37.80 mills/kWh ($37.80/MWh) based on 20 years of water data. Can you explain the differences between his estimates and yours? A.Yes. There are several differences. First, I did not consider the case of 20 water years. In Order No. 20924 (Case No. U-I006-265) IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. the Commission ordered IPCo to use the most recent 20 years of water data for retai 1 ratemaking purposes, rather than alI available water data. This methodology resulted from statistical evidence supporting 20 years of data being the best predictor of the f low in the year immediately following that period, and was based on the assumption that retail rates are set relatively often. Thus it was determined that 20 water years is the best predictor for short term analyses such as those that apply to retai 1 rates. However, for a long term analysis such as determining the value of genera- tion from a resource with a 46 year life, one should use a larger data base -- in this case, 60 years of water data. The average of stream f lows over this period are lower than over the 20 years used by Mr. Keen, which reduces the estimate of annual average generation and increases estimates of energy cost. Second, Order No. 23357 (Case No. IPC-E-89-11) established the following capital struc- ture for determining the cost of long term generating resources on IPCo's system. IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. Compo n.Ra:t~Qß 10.30% 10.29% 13.17% 50% 10% 40% DebtPreferred Common' Weighted Cost 11.447% I used this capi tal structure in my analysis, rather than the capital structure used by Mr. Keen, which was: Component Ratio~ DebtPreferred Common 10.00% 9.50% 12.25% 50% 10% 40% Weighted Cost 10.857% Using the larger cost of capital increases the estimated cost of generation. Third, Mr. Keen used an estimated annual Operations and Maintenance (O&M) cost of $272,217. My analysis of IPCo' s historic operating costs for the years 1985 through 1989 indicate that the appropriate O&M cost estimate for a project of this size is $14/kW. That yields an annual O&M cost of $815,780 in 1992 dollars, which is the value I used in my estimate for this project's cost. This change also increases my estimated cost of generation over Mr. Keen's estimate. IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. Fourth, Mr. Keen used an annua 1 average generation of 194,700 MWh in his analysis. However, IPCo indicated in the FERC license application that the actual expected generation would be 186,395 MWh because of unit unavailability. Therefore, I used 186,395 MWh/yr in my cost analysis for this project, which further increased my estimate over Mr. Keen's. Fifth, Order No. 23357 determined that the appropriate escalation rate for determining the cost of resources on IPCo' s system is 4.5% per year. This is the escalation rate I used in my analysis, rather than the 4.0% per year used by Mr. Keen, again resul ting in a higher estimate than Mr. Keen's. I must also note that both Mr. Keen and I used 0.7381% of capital cost as the property tax rate for our analyses, even though Order No. 23357 required 1.0% as the property tax rate for the Surrogate Avoidable Resource (SAR) of the avoided cost determinat ion. I accepted Mr. Keen's rate because I assume that IPCo is much more capable of accurately estimating the property tax rate of hydro plants in Idaho than any of the parties were of estimating the property tax rate of a coa 1 fi red plant in Wyoming. Q.Can you further explain the analysis you did to estimate annual O&M costs? IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. A.Yes. Using pp. 406-A through 407-B of IPCo's FERC Form 1, I determined the rated capacity, net generation, and variable operating cost for each year from 1985 through 1989, inclusive, for each of IPCo's 14 major existing hydro electric plants. Using Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the escalation rates required in Order No. 23357 for future years, I adjusted the cost data to 1992 dollars. I then computed the cost per kW of rated capaci ty for each year for each plant. After a subjective determination that the variation from year to year of the costs per kW of capaci ty was acceptable, I averaged the 5 yea rs of data for each plant. I then graphed the cost per kW relative to the rated capaci ty. The resul ting graph is included as Exhibit No. 102, and the data from which Exhibit No. 102 was derived are included as Exhibit No. 103. As can be seen from Exhibi t No. 102, the data yield a relatively smooth curve, except for one significant hydro plant, so it is reasonable to inter- polate between data points provided there is a reason- able explanation for the aberrant plant. The aberrant plant is Swan Falls, which is substantially more expensive to operate than would be expected in comparison to IPCo' s other plants. Although I didn.t IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. confirm it, I assumed that the excessive cost of Swan Falls is due to its remote location and antiquated control system. Thus, it is apparent from the graph (Exhibit No. 102) and the data from which it was developed (Exhibi t No. 103) that one should expect IPCo to experience O&M costs of about $14/kW for a 58 MW hydro plant. This is the rate I used in my analysis. It must be noted, however, that because the Milner Plant will be an integral part of a complex irrigation system, it would not be unreasonable to assume that its operating costs might be relatively higher than IPCo' s other plants, as compa red herein. Q.According to Order No. 23357, the maximum avoided cost rate available to Qualifying Facilities (QFs) in Idaho (as defined under the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) J coming on line in 1992 is $57. 53/MWh. In light of this, do you consider your estimated cost of $62. 73/MWh to represent a cost effective project for IPCo' s ratepayers, at least as compared to avoided cost rates? A.Yes, I do. For at least three reasons, the published avoided cost rates are not appropriate for direct comparison to a cost estimate of a specific project. First, the computer model that computes the published avoided cost rate assumes a "first deficit IPC-E-90-8 11/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. year" (i.e. year of new resource need) of 1993 for IPCo. I currently believe that, as clearly explained in IPCo' s petition for reconsideration in Case No. IPC-E-89-11, the correct first deficit year should have been 1994. Based on the assumption that the Commission will authorize this change, I have deter- mined that the comparable avoided cost rate (wi thout "tilting") would be $50.40/MWh. Second, the published rates include an adjustable portion of $8.78/MWh that will be adjusted in the future based on actual operating costs of the Colstrip coal fired generating plant. For direct comparison to an actual project the adjustable portion should be assumed to escalate at the same rate as comparable costs associated with the actual project. When this adjustment is made the comparable 20 year avoided cost rate (without "tilting") is $60. 12/MWh. Third, even as adjusted above, the published avoided cost rates apply only to projects with a 20 year availability to IPCo. Although there have been numerous arguments made about the unfairness of limiting QF contracts and their rates to 20 years, nonetheless, from a ratepayer viewpoint IPCo' s 46 year project should be compared to 46 years of avoidable costs. That is, when IPCo bui Ids a resource wi th a 46 IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. year life ratepayers can reasonably expect that they wi 1 1 have access to the energy f rom that resource for the full 46 years, so other resource costs can be avoided for the full 46 years. Using the SAR methodology specified by the Commission, assuming a new SAR will be built at the end of the 35 year life of the first SAR, assuming a first deficit year of 1994, assuming that the adjust- able portion will escalate, and assuming an on-line year of 1992 yields an avoided cost of $65. 28/MWh. Taking into account the seasonality weighting of avoided costs relative to the availability of the Mi lner Plant reduces the value of the avoided costs applicable at Milner to $61.35/MWh. This is the appropriate avoided cost rate to use for determining the cost effectiveness of the Mi lner Plant. Thus, the Mi lner Plant, wi th an estimated cost of $62. 73/MWh is cost effective wi thin reasonable limi ts of estimating accuracy. (62.73/61.35 - 102.2%) Q.You indicate that there has been a Petition for Reconsideration of Order No. 23357 filed that could affect the "first deficit year" of the avoided cost computation. Are there any other issues pertinent to that peti tion that might affect the avoided cost rate comparable to the Mi lner Plant? IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. A.There is a potential that a mathematical error made in Case No. WWP-E-89-6 will cause a change in the estimated cost of transmission construction in that case and that the WWP transmission cost change will flow through to Case No. IPC-E-89-11, thus sightly reducing the avoided cost rates comparable to the Mi Iner Plant. I would expect that change to be less than 3% of avoided cost. Otherwise, I believe that none of the issues pertinent to the peti tion for reconsideration of Order No. 23357 will affect the avoided cost rate that is comparable to the Mi lner Plant. Q.Suppose for a moment tha t, as a result of this (or some future) proceeding, the estimated cost of the Milner Project is found to be substantially greater than your estimate or the comparable avoidable costs are found to be substantially less than your estimate. For example, assume that the Commission determines that the Mi lner costs should be compared to the interim 20-year avoided cost rates in effect prior to Order No. 23357. Under those conditions, would you still consider the Milner Project to be cost effective? A.No. Under those circumstances I believe IPCo should be limited in its recovery to an accurate Commission determined comparable avoided cost rate. IPC-E-90-8 11/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. Q.other than using pre-Order No. 23357 avoided cost assumptions, are there any obvious condi- tions that might be found appropriate for reducing the comparable avoided cost rate for evaluating the Milner Plant? A.Yes. The computation of avoided cost rates for purpose of evaluating capacity and energy to be purchased under PURPA specifically excludes the use of proj ected future purchases of QF power and demand side resources (conservation) for estimating the first year of power need for each uti li ty. Al though this is appropriate for PURPA applications (as explained else- where, including in Order No. 22636), it could easily be argued that it is not appropriate for evaluating the uti Ii ties' proposed resources. This is especially true in the case of conservation resources. The Commission has been encouraging Idaho utilities to acquire cost effective conservation resources for years, but with Ii ttle avail. Now, when it appears that new resources are needed, the utilities have little conservation "on-line", and are essentially unprepared to aggres- sively bring such resources on line. Therefore, it appears inéquitable to ascribe a benefit to IPCo in evaluating its supply side resources by ignoring the IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. utility's apparent negligence in acquiring demand side resources. I believe the Commission should consider imputing prior and future demand side resource acquisi tion to IPCo for the purpose of evaluating proposed supply side resources, including the Milner Plant. Q.Wouldn't such limitations unfairly deny IPCo from recovering prudently incurred investment costs? A.No. IPCo made its decisions, commi t- ments, and contracts relative to this Project without a Certificate, even though one was clearly required prior to beginning "construction". Furthermore, it did so while fully aware of the interim avoided cost rates, whi Ie arguing for future avoided cost rates substantially less than those included in Order No. 23357, while fully aware of the Commission's position on cost effective conservation resources, and whi Ie fully aware of the SAR methodology ordered by the Commission. Therefore, based on the knowledge and assumptions that IPCo was publicly espousing at the time it made those decisions, commitments, and contracts relative to this Project, they appear, on their faces, to have been imprudent. It is only as a result of chance that the decisions have subsequently IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. turned out to appear marginally prudent (at least as determined by my analyses). Therefore, if it is determined that my analyses are in error and that the Mi lner Proj ect costs are not less than avoided costs, IPCo should be imputed to have known that the project was not cost effective, at least to the extent that Mi lner costs exceed avoided costs us ing the assumpt ions included in IPCo l s recommended avoided costs in Case No. IPC-E-89-11 and, perhaps, imputed conservation resource acquisitions. Q.In your statement of purpose you said that you would "... provide an engineering opinion as to the appropriateness of the proj ect. . ." . What did you mean by that? A.I meant that in addi tion to providing an analysis of the cost effectiveness of the project as proposed by IPCo, I would provide an engineering opinion relative to the IPCo proposal being the most cost effective development from the family of reason- ably potential developments at the si te -- that is, an opinion as to whether I believe IPCo has provided the most cost effective development practicable for this resource. Q.What is your opinion in this regard? IPC-E-90-8 11/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. A.Before answering that question, I should make two important qualifying points. First, it is much easier to second-guess the quality of a project after someone else has spent the money and labor to develop it than it is to actually do the development. Second, it appears that IPCo has made a substantially greater effort to control costs on this project than on many of its prior power supply developments. Nonetheless, bearing those two caveats in mind, it does not appear to me that IPCo has made the same level of project optimization effort that one would find in a QF development. The most glaring weakness that I find in the project is in the royalty agreement with the canal companies. Even though the irrigators were faced with mandatory dam repairs and a hydro electric project that could not be made cost effective under avoided cost rates extant at the time, the final royalty agreement not only assures the canal companies that they will recover all of their costs of implementing dam repairs, it also assures them of a substantial profit on their investment. This is hardly the result one would expect from a QF developer' s negotiations. In fact, I expect that the irrigators would have ended up with only partial reimbursement IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. for their dam costs, not a profit, if dealing with a QF developer. Next, it appears that the Mi lner Plant has been over-sized for the flows at the si te. The overall average capacity factor of the project is less than 36% and the average estimated capacity factor in the most productive month (December) is less than 60%. The standard in the industry is typically for overall capacity factors of between 45% and 65%. In general, cost effectiveness improves as capacity factors increase, up to about 65%. Finally, it appears that IPCo used the standard firm bid process to procure equipment and construction services, rather than the more cost effective request for proposals (RFP) and negotiation process. Al though the bidding method is immune to administrative challenge because it appears to result in supplier competi tion, my experience has been that it actually stifles competition and results in higher costs i especially on large, complex projects such as the Milner Plant. There are several reasons for this. Foremost among them is that in preparing requests for bids the design engineer is constrained to "guessing" about the best combinations of size, arrangement, and IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. timing, with minimal input from suppliers; whereas in competitively negotiated contracts based on RFPs the suppliers are challenged to provide their most innova- ti ve combinations wi th fruitful give-and-take discus- sions between supplier(s), the owner, and the engineer. In my experience, this method almost always results in better projects at lower cost. Furthermore, it reduces the probability of suppliers receiving cost over-run payments for extra work, unexpected condi tions, and ambiguous contract language being construed against the owner (the risk of over-run payments is reduced in this case because the contract is drafted jointly by all parties, not just the owner). Q.Is the entire royalty agreement between IPCo and the irrigators disadvantageous to IPCo and its ratepayers? A.No. The royalty agreement has two components, a base royalty and an incentive royalty. The base royalty assures the irrigators of recovering nearly all of the costs of constructing the dam modifications -- this is the part of the royalty I consider to be excessive. The incentive royalty, on the other hand, is very beneficial to ratepayers. Q.Why is the incentive royalty beneficial to ratepayers? IPC-E-90-8 11/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. A.Because it provides the irrigators with a strong financial incentive to limit their water use during good water years, and even provides some incentive for irrigation efficiency during moderate water years. I base this opinion on the secondary va lue of the water that wi II pass through the turbines at Milner. All water above mean flow condi tions that passes through the Mi lner turbines wi 1 1 probably a Iso pass through each of IPCo' s other Snake River hydro plants, except American Falls, which is upstream of Milner. Although I have not quantified this value, it will be substantial -- far in excess of the incentive royalty cost. Q.Do you propose that project costs should be disallowed for ratemaking purposes because you believe IPCo has not optimized its Milner resource? A.No. My speculative criticisms do not provide evidence of imprudent management. I merely include this part of my testimony to provide support for the position that IPCo should be held to the standard of avoided cost in determining the ratemaking allowability of new resource costs, and should be required to fully justify its design and construction decisions prior to such costs being allowed for rate making purposes. Clearly the Milner Plant could not IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. be developed as proposed by IPCo if its costs had to be recovered under a QF contract, even under the rates included in Order No. 23357 (which IPCo claims are too high). Furthermore, it is my professional opinion that the Mi lner site could have been developed under the 23357 rates by a QF developer, albeit only after hard-nosed negotiations with irrigators and suppliers. However, because it would be near ly impossible to provide evidence to prove that IPCo had not provided the optimum development for the resource, the Commission is limited to using avoided cost as the imputed surrogate for identifying prudent decision making. The utility is perfectly able to determine how its proposed projects stack up against comparable avoided costs and it is perfectly capable of estimat- ing the risks that its cost estimates may be low, so it should be held accountable for keeping its costs below those comparable avoided costs. Ratepayers should not be held at risk for utility executives' poor decision making beyond what has clearly been established as achievable costs -- in fact costs the utility claims are excessive (i.e., avoided cost). It's bad enough that it is impossible to identify and reject sub-optimal features that cause excess costs below avoided costs. IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. Q.What are your recommendations in this case? A.I recommend that, based on the estimate that the Mi lner Proj ect (as proposed by IPCo) wi 1 1 provide energy at approximately avoided costs, the Commission grant a Certificate for the present Public Convenience and Necessity for the Milner Hydro Electric Plant, with the specific caveat that costs in excess of the appropriate comparable avoided cost rate (to be determined in a future rate making case) are, by definition, imprudently incurred. I further recommend that the Commission advise IPCo that this Certificate in no way implies that all costs incurred in develop- ing the project are inherently prudent, but that the Commission will review all costs so incurred at a later date and wi 11 determine a t that time whether IPCo's execution of the project was prudent in light of the generally accepted standards of the hydro electric construction industry. Q.Did you consider IPCo' s suggestion that the Milner Project not be included in rate base until after it had operated for a 20-year period as an unregulated resource ("20-year deferral~ proposal)? A.Yes, but I rejected the suggestion because I estimate project costs to be approximately IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. equa 1 to avoided costs. Q.If the estimated project costs are determined to be greater than avoided costs wi i 1 you recommend that IPCo' s suggestion be accepted? A.Maybe. However, that proposal presents several difficult problems and risks. I believe it would be extremely difficult to establish a completely independent non-regulated subsidiary with clear controls to assure that there can be no cross subsidi- zation between that company and the regulated uti li ty. Please note that a major factor in the difference between IPCo' s cost estimate for the Milner Plant ($52.93/MWh) and mine ($62. 73/MWh) is the difference between IPCo's O&M cost estimate ($272,217/yr) and mine ($815, 780/yr) . If the Commission sets up a si tuation where IPCo is forced to recover its costs by marketing the output of Milner in the competitive wholesale market,there will be extremely strong incentives for IPCo to allocate O&M costs actually incurred in support of Hi lner to other accounts. Although O&M costs would be fairly easy to audit, Staff witness Miller includes in her testimony other sound arguments against accepting without modification IPCO's "20-year deferral" proposal. IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. Q.What are some of those other potential areas of cross subsidization that might be particu- larly applicable to an IPCo subsidiary marketing wholesale electrici ty? A.There are a number of services implicitly and explicitly available to wholesale electricity customers from utility generators that are not typically available from independent (non-utility) generators. Among these are wheeling services, wheeling contract negotiating services, plant reserve power, back up capaci ty and energy, dispatch services, true-up services for ramping delays, etc. The explici t services could be monitored by staff, albei t wi th some difficulty, but it would be impossible to ascertain or estimate the level or value of implici t services being supplied to the subsidiary's customers through the parent (IPCo). Q.Although you generally disagree with applying IPCo's "20-year deferral" proposal to this proj ect, do you bel ieve there may be proj ects where it would be more appropriate? A.Again, maybe. But it is unlikely that the proposal would be appropriate for any proj ect without substantial modifications to IPCo' s proposal (at least as extensive as suggested by Ms. Miller in IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 21 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. her testimony). It seems to me to be more appropriate in most circumstances to require IPCo to commit only to acquire resources that are cost effective relative to avoided costs, considering all non-quantifiable relative risks. Nonetheless, as Ms. Miller points out, it would be unreasonable to presume that an option such as IPCo proposes could never be appropriate. Q.What kinds of "non-quantifiable relative risks" should be considered, and how? A.A couple of the "relative risks" that come to mind immediately are, for the Milner Project, the risk that future Snake River flows at the site may be more (less) than the historic flows and that the envi ronmenta 1 impacts of the proj ect may be more (less) than expected. For potential thermal projects that could compete economically with the Milner Project, a couple of the "relative risks" that come to mind immediately are the risk that future fuel will be unavailable, undeliverable, or more (less) expensive than expected, and that the environmental impacts of such a proj ect may be more (less) than expected. Because such risks are inherently unquantifiable, decision makers must make their own best estimate of the level and impact of each of the potential occurrences actually happening and then IPC-E-90-8 11/9/90 FAULL (Oi)Staff 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. decide how to factor that risk into granting or denying Certification and/or rate making application of proj ect costs. For example, it is currently taken as an historic axiom that hydro plants have "always" been more cost effective than thermal plants, so we should expect them to be more cost effective in the future. However, on careful reflection, it becomes apparent that the reason that hydro has been more cost effective than thermal is that fuel costs have escalated much more rapidly than expected. Thus, the critical ques- tion when comparing a specific hydro plant to potential thermal plants is "How does the probability that we have over (under) estimated water flows compare to the probability that we have over (under) estimated fuel costs?" . Q.Doesn' t the consideration of unquantifi- able risks invalidate the concept of using avoided cost as the only implied surrogate for estimating prudent project selection and management? A.Yes, slightly. Rather than using avoided cost as the only measure of prudence, the Commi ss ion should use avoided cost as the presum measure of prudence. Thus, as part of its application for rate making treatment of any project, a utility should be IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 23 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 .. expected to justify projected generation costs that exceed avoided cost. That justification would be in addition to justification for other factors and conditions such as project size, contract over runs, type of technology selected, method of project management, etc. Q.Does that conclude your testimony? A.Yes. IPC-E-90-811/9/90 FAULL (Di)Staff 24 .. QUALIFICATIONS OF Thomas G. Faull, P.E. of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission Mr. Faull received a Bachelor of Science degree from the Uni versi ty of Idaho in 1970. His major was Mechanical Engineering with emphasis on Nuclear Engineering and Stress Analysis.His minor was Business Administration with emphasis on Economics and Management. PROFESSIONAL REGISTRTIONS AND HONORS: Mr. Faull is a member of Sigma Tau, the collegiate engineering honorary society.He has received registration to practice Professional Engineering in the following states: 1974 : 1975 : 1977 : 1979 : Idaho; Mechanical Colorado; General New Mexico; General Oregon; Civil He is also registered to practice before the U. S. Office of Patents and Trademarks as a Patent Agent. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: A. From 1970 through 1978, Mr. Faull worked for the U. S. Bureau of Reclamation in the capaci ties of Mechanical Engineer,Contract Administrator,and IDAHO POWER COMPANY Case No. IPC-E-90-8 Exhibi t No. 101 T. Faull, Staff11/9/90 Page 1 of 4 .. Resident Engineer.As a Mechanical Engineer he provided quality control for mechanical, electrical, and civil works at major hydroelectric construction projects. As a Contract Administrator he analyzed and made recommendations pertaining to claims for addi- tional compensation under contracts to build and supply equipment for major hydroelectric and irrigation projects, negotiated settlements thereto, and wrote contract addenda to reflect negotiated settlements. As a Resident Engineer he supervised up to 50 engineers, surveyors, and technicians providing quality control of electrica l, mechanical, and ci vi 1 works of a 100,000 acre irrigation project; including roads, highways, canals, pumping plants, pipelines substations, and a 115kV transmission line. From 1978 through 1986 Mr. Faull work.ed in various capacities of consulting engineering. As such, he did (or supervised) financial feasibility analyses, design,construction management,cons t ruct ion,and start-up of chemical, water, and energy proj ects, including PURPA hydro, coal, and MSW projects. He also did business development, billing, personnel manage- ment, and hiring/firing. I DAHO POWER COMPANY Case No. IPC-E-90-8 Exhibit No. 101 T.Faull, Staff11/9/90 Page 2 of 4 .. From 1987 through the present Mr. Faull has served as a Uti Ii ties Engineer at the Idaho Public Utilities Commission. In that capacity he has analyzed Cogeneration and Small Power Producers'(CSPPs' ) projects;developed computer models to represent uti li ties' Avoided Costs, power supplies, cash flows, and other features; testified in electric avoided cost cases; authored Proposed Orders pertaining to avoided costs,cSPPs ·security arrangements,utility sur- charges, and uti Ii ties' conservation/least-costplanning programs; and authored proposed Idaho comments to Federal Notices of Proposed Rulemaking.He has also attended several related training programs and con- ferences, including the NARUC 1987 Western Utility Rate Seminar,the NARUC 1987 19th Annual Williamsburg Regulatory Conference, The 1988 First Annual Utility Least-Cost-Planning Conference, the 6th NARUC Biennial Regulatory Information Conference, aNARUC Conference on Transmission Issues in Washington D.C., two pri- vately sponsored conferences on CSPP regulation, and one privately sponsored conference on bidding for CSPP power. IDAHO POWER COMPANY Case No. IPC-E-90-8 Exhibit No. lOlT. F au ll, S t a f f11/9/90 Page 3 of 4 .. PUBLICATIONS: Mr. Faull has authored and presented three papers that were published in the "Proceedings of the Sixth NARUC Biennial Information Conference". The papers were entitled: 1."Irreconcilable ConflictsInherent in Vertically Electric utilities", of InterestIntegrated 2. "Solving the Overpayment Dilemma for Levelized Rate PURPA Contracts", and 3. "Bid Price and Reserve Margin: Chicken and Egg? An Approach to Pricing Power in the Post-Spiral World". __ = ____ _= _.. _e=__=. ....... __=_ ___._ __ ... __._.. IDAHO POWER COMPANY Case No. IPC-E-90-8 Exhibi t No. 101 T.Faull, Staff11/9/90 Page 4 of 4 .. § i (fl-(f0() w t §--m ,~I\,i'~2~îl .. ~~~o C'~ ::~O~Q )-~I 00C' .0 ~ 0() CL o ~~51 ~51 2 o~o (M'V z&&l) J.o:i .LINn IDAHO~POWER COMPANY Case No. IPC-E-90-8 Exhibit No. 102 T. Faull, Staff11/9/90 Pagel of 2 .. (f 0l-..(f0() W.. en 04:.. ç'~::~î .. ~~~o C'~ I:ëJo :;~Q ~)-I .~ ~0C'0()0. 8- o2==~~~~~~~2 .. .. "I C' 0 (M)l/$ l:SS") J,o:i J,INn IDAHO POWER COMPANY Case No. IPC-E-90-8 Exhlbi t No. 102 T. Faull, Stáff11/9/90 Page i of 2 ..UNIT COST UNIT COST HYDRO PLANT YEAR (1992 $/MWh)(1992 $/kW)------------------------------------ TWIN FALLS '89 1989 AVG.AVG.*************** TWIN FALLS '88 1988 AVG.AVG. TWIN FALLS ' 87 1987 $3.34 $25,15 TWIN FALLS TWIN FALLS '86 1986 AVG.AVG.8.4 MW TWIN FALLS '85 1985 AVG.AVG.55.0 YEARS OLD SWAN FALLS '89 1989 AVG.AVG. SWAN FALLS '88 1988 AVG.AVG. SWAN FALLS '87 1987 $8.05 $68.28 SWAN FALLS SWAN FALLS '86 1986 AVG.AVG.10.3 MW SWAN FALLS '85 1985 AVG.AVG.45.0 YEARS OLD CASCADE '89 1989 AVG.AVG. CASCADE '88 1988 AVG.AVG. CASCADE '87 1987 $5.93 $16.42 CASCADE CASCADE '86 1986 AVG.AVG.12.4 MW CASCADE '85 1985 AVG.AVG.6.0 YEARS OLD SHOSHONE FALLS '89 1989 AVG.AVG. SHOSHONE FALLS '88 1988 AVG.AVG. SHOSHONE FALLS '87 1987 $5.58 $25.14 SHOSHONE FALLS SHOSHONE FALLS '86 1986 AVG.AVG.12.5 MW SHOSHONE FALLS '85 1985 AVG.AVG.69.0 YEARS OLD MALAD '89 1989 AVG.AVG. MALAD '88 1988 AVG.AVG. MALAD '87 1987 $1.99 $12.89 MALAD MALAD '86 1986 AVG.AVG.20.7 MW MALAD '85 1985 AVG.AVG.42.0 YEARS OLD UPPER SALMON '89 1989 AVG.AVG. UPPER SALMON '88 1988 AVG.AVG. UPPER SALMON '87 1987 $2.81 $21.35 UPPER SALMON UPPER SALMON '86 1986 AVG.AVG.34.5 MW UPPER SALMON '85 1985 AVG.AVG.43.0 YEARS OLD LOWER SALMON '89 1989 AVG.AVG. LOWER SALMON '88 1988 AVG.AVG. LOWER SALMON '87 1987 $2.99 $13.83 LOWER SALMON LOWER SALMON '86 1986 AVG.AVG.60.0 MW LOWER SALMON '85 1985 AVG.AVG.41 .0 YEARS OLD BLISS '89 1989 AVG.AVG. BLISS '88 1988 AVG.AVG. BLISS '87 1987 $1.29 $6.79 BLISS BLISS '86 1986 AVG.AVG.75.0 MW BLISS '85 1985 AVG.AVG.40.0 YEARS OLD STRIKE '89 1989 AVG.AVG. STRIKE '88 1988 AVG.AVG. STRIKE '87 1987 $1.32 $7.73 STRIKE STRIKE '86 1986 AVG.AVG.82.8 MW STRIKE '85 1985 AVG.AVG.38.0 YEARS OLD AMERICAN FALLS '89 1989 AVG.AVG. AMERICAN FALLS '88 1988 AVG.AVG. AMERICAN FALLS '81 1987 $3.02 $11. 35 AMERICAN FALLS AMERICAN FALLS '86 1986 AVG.AVG.92.3 MW AMERICAN FALLS '85 1985 AVG.AVG.12.0 YEARS OLD OXBOW '89 1989 AVG.AVG. OXBO '88 1988 AVG.AVG. OXBOW '87 1987 $0.96 $4.81 OXBOW OXBOW '86 1986 AVG.AVG.190.0 MW OXBOW '85 1985 AVG.AVG.29.0 YEARS OLD HELLS CANYON '89 1989 AVG.AVG. HELLS CANYON '88 1988 AVG.AVG. HELLS CANYON '87 1987 $0.56 $2.90 HELLS CANYON HELLS CANYON '86 1986 AVG.AVG.391. 5 MW HELLS CANYON '85 1985 AVG.AVG.23.0 YEARS OLD BROWNLEE '89 1989 AVG.AVG. BROWNLEE '88 1988 AVG.AVG. BROWNLEE '81 1981 $0.53 $2.08 BROWNLEE BROWNLEE '86 1986 AVG.AVG.585.4 MW BROWNLEE '85 1985 AVG.AVG.23.0 YEARS OLD IDAHO POWER COMPANY Case No.IPC-E- 90- 8 Exhibi t No.103 T.Faull,Staff 11/9/90 Page i of 3 ..CAPACITY GENERATION AVERAGE CAP.FACT. HYDRO PLANT YEAR (MW)(MWh)(aMW)(%)------------------------------------------------------ TWIN FALLS '89 1989 8.4 63,593 7.3 86.0% TWIN FALLS '88 1988 8.4 54,367 6.2 73.6% TWIN FALLS '87 1987 8.4 66,036 7.5 89.3% TWIN FALLS '86 1986 8.4 73,261 8.4 99.1% TWIN FALLS '85 1985 8.4 74,005 8.4 100.1% SWAN FALLS '89 1989 10.3 88,451 10.1 98.4% SWAN FALLS '88 1988 10.3 92,710 10.6 103.1% SWAN FALLS ' 87 1987 10.3 88,302 10.1 98.2% SWAN FALLS '86 1986 10.3 80,345 9.2 89.4% SWAN FALLS '85 1985 10.3 84,495 9.6 94.0% CASCADE '89 1989 12.4 37,264 4.3 34.3% CASCADE '88 1988 12.4 22,328 2.5 20.5% CASCADE ' 87 1987 12.4 30,021 3.4 27.6% CASCADE '86 1986 12.4 52,624 6.0 48.4% CASCADE '85 1985 12.4 39,051 4.5 35.9% SHOSHONE FALLS '89 1989 12.5 99.258 11. 3 90.6% SHOSHONE FALLS '88 1988 12.5 94,546 10.8 86.3% SHOSHONE FALLS '87 1987 12.5 69,558 7.9 63.5% SHOSHONE FALLS '86 1986 12.5 37,334 4.3 34.1% SHOSHONE FALLS '85 1985 12.5 48,528 5.5 44.3% MALAD '89 1989 20.7 78,047 8.9 43.0% MALAD '88 1988 20.7 180,474 20.6 99.5% MALAD '87 1987 20.7 185,584 21. 2 102.3% MALAD '86 1986 20.7 155.989 17 .8 86.0% MALAD '85 1985 20.7 180,612 20.6 99.6% UPPER SALMON '89 1989 34.5 249.042 28.4 82.4% UPPER SALMON '88 1988 34.5 235,512 26.9 77.9% UPPER SALMON '87 1987 34.5 274,806 31. 4 90.9% UPPER SALMON '86 1986 34.5 282,465 32.2 93.5% UPPER SALMON '85 1985 34.5 290,873.0 33.2 96.2% LOWER SALMON '89 1989 60.0 235,299 26.9 44.8% LOWER SALMON '88 1988 60.0 221,461 25.3 42.1% LOWER SALMON '87 1987 60.0 263,047 30.0 50.0% LOWER SALMON '86 1986 60.0 457,749 52.3 87.1% LOWER SALMON '85 1985 60.0 379,213 43.3 72.1% BLISS '89 1989 75.0 349,575 39.9 53.2% BLISS '88 1988 75.0 333,319 38.1 50.7% BLISS '87 1987 75.0 391,367 44.7 59.6% BLISS '86 1986 75.0 484,596 55.3 73.8% BLISS '85 1985 75.0 508,491 58.0 77.4% STRIKE '89 1989 82.8 439,626 50.2 60.6% STRIKE '88 1988 82.8 403,106 46.0 55.6% STRIKE '87 1987 82.8 465,243 53.1 64.1% STRIKE '86 1986 82.8 681,166 77.8 93.9% STRIKE '85 1985 82.8 592,109 67.6 81.6% AMERICAN FALLS '89 1989 92.3 269,790 30.8 33.4% AMERICAN FALLS '88 1988 92.3 234,808 26.8 29.0% AMERICAN FALLS '87 1987 92.3 327,622 37.4 40.5% AMERICAN FALLS '86 1986 92.3 667,174 76.2 82.5% AMERICAN FALLS '85 1985 92.3 536.430 61.2 66.3% OXBOW '89 1989 190.0 980,413 111. 9 58.9% OXBOW '88 1988 190.0 677 ,644 77 .4 40.7% OXBO '87 1987 190.0 878,563 100.3 52.8%uxtJow .~~198~190.0 1.397 , O~ 1 159.5 83.9% OXBOW '85 1985 190.0 1,194,306 136.3 71.8% HELLS CANYON '89 1989 391.5 2,032.046 232.0 59.3% HELLS CANYON '88 1988 391. 5 1,370,368 156.4 40.0% HELLS CANYON '87 1987 391. 5 1,727,751 197.2 50.4% HELLS CANYON '86 1986 391.5 2,509,024 286.4 73.2% HELLS CANYON '85 1985 391.5 2,405,854 274.6 70.2% BROWNLEE '89 1989 585.4 2,351,817 268.5 45.9% BROWNLEE '88 1988 585.4 1.587,272 181. 2 31.0% BROWNLEE '87 1987 585.4 2,103,407 240.1 41.0% BROWNLEE '86 1986 585.4 3.887,256 443.8 75.8% BROWNLEE '85 1985 585.4 2,983,072 340.5 58.2% IÚAHOPOWER COMPANY Case No.IPC-E-90..8ExhibitNo.103 T.Faull,Staff 11/9/90 Page 2 of 3 .COSTS COSTS . COST UNIT COST HYDRO PLANT ($)(1992 $)(1992 $/MWh)(1992 $/kW)---------------------------------------------------------- TWIN FALLS '89 $219,050 $246,401 $3.875 $29.20 TWIN FALLS '88 $263,923 $308,753 $5.679 $36.60 TWIN FALLS '87 $139,252 $169,421 $2.566 $20.08 TWIN FALLS '86 $132,680 $167,883 $2.292 $19.90 TWIN FALLS '85 $127,923 $ ~ 68,338 $2.275 $19.95 SWAN FALLS '89 $952,425 $1,071,349 $12.112 $104.37 SWAN FALLS '88 $575,638 $673,415 $7.264 $65.60 SWAN FALLS '87 $484,351 $589,287 $6.674 $57.41 SWAN FALLS '86 $466,493 $530,262 $7.347 $57.50 SWAN FALLS '85 $441,014 $580,344 $6.868 $56.54 CASCADE '89 $131,255 $147,644 $3.962 $11,89 CASCADE '88 $152,297 $178,166 $7.979 $14.35 CASCADE ' 87 $155,118 $188,725 $6.286 $15.20 CASCADE '86 $183,334 $231,976 $4.408 $18.68 CASCADE '85 $207,783 $273,428 $7.002 $22.02 SHOSHONE FALLS '89 $278,917 $313,744 $3.161 $25.10 SHOSHONE FALLS '88 $175,099 $204,841 $2.167 $16.39 SHOSHONE FALLS '87 $196,672 $239,282 $3.440 $19.14 SHOSHONE FALLS '86 $306,024 $387,218 $10.372 $30.98 SHOSHONE FALLS '85 $323.892 $426,220 $8.783 $34. '0 MALAD '89 $244,868 $275,443 $3.529 $13.31 MALAD '88 $203,374 $237,919 $1,318 $11, 49 MALAD ' 87 ($66,145 )($80,476)($0.434)($3.39) MALAD '86 $511,085 $646,686 $4.146 $31,;:4 MALAD '85 $193,131 $254,147 $1. 407 $12.28 UPPER SALMON '89 $762,935 $858,198 $3.446 $24.88 UPPER SALMON '88 $711,545 $832,407 $3.534 $24.13 UPPER SALMON '87 $534,441 $650,229 $2.366 $1 e. 85 UPPER SALMON '86 $566,535 $716,848 $2.538 $20.78 UPPER SALMON '85 $474,928 .$624,973 $2.149 $18.12 LOWER SALMON '89 $914,930 $1,029,172 $4.374 $17 .15 LOWER SALMON '88 $696,710 $815,052 $3.680 $13.58 LOWER SALMON ' 87 $780,201 $949,234 $3.609 $15.82 LOWER SALMON '86 $498,667 $630,973 $1, 378 $10.52 LOWER SALMON '85 $550,449 $724.353 $1. 910 $12.07 BLISS '89 $483,908 $544,331 $1. 557 $7. 26 BLISS '88 $474,894 $555,559 $1.667 $7. 41 BLISS '87 $469,001 $570.611 $1, 458 $7. ?1 BLISS '86 $427.579 $541,024 $1.116 $7.21 BLISS '85 $254.431 $334,814 $0.658 $4.46 STRIKE '89 $746,261 $839,442 $1,909 $10.14 STRIKE '88 $596,342 $697,636 $1. 731 $3.43 STRIKE '87 $429.668 $522,757 $1.124 $6.31 STRIKE '86 $353.651 $447,481 $0.657 $5.40 STRIKE '85 $527.101 $693,629 $1.171 $8.38 AMERICAN FALLS '89 $877 ,496 $987,064 $3.659 $10.69 AMERICAN FALLS 'S8 $919,701 $1,075,920 $4.582 $11. 65 AMERICAN FALLS '87 $865,762 $1,053,332 $3.215 $11.41 AMERICAN FALLS '86 $739,771 $936,046 $1.403 $10.14 AMERICAN FALLS '85 $903,766 $1,189,294 $2.217 $12.88 OXBOW '89 $932.351 $1,048,768 $ 1.070 $5.52 OXBOW '88 $812,699 $950,743 $1. 403 $5.00 OXBOW '87 1732.162 $890,787 $1.014 $4.69 OXBOW '86 $603,416 $763,514 $0.547 $4.02 OXBOW '85 $695,998 $915,886 $0.767 $4.82 HELLS CANYON '89 $673.591 $757,698 $0.373 $1.94 HELLS CANYON '88 $631.940 $739,280 $0.539 $1.89 HELLS CANYON '87 $813,807 $990,121 $0.573 $2.53 HELLS CANYON '86 $1,133,393 $1,434,104 $0.572 $3.66 HELLS CANYON '85 $1,333.740 $1,755,111 $0.730 $4.48 BROWNLEE '89 $1,223,548 $1,376,325 $0.585 $2.35 BROWNLEE '88 $1.148,602 $1,343,702 $0.847 $2.30 BROWNLEE '87 $1,032,048 $1,255,644 $0.597 $2.14 BROWNLEE '86 $905,745 $1,146,056 $0.295 $1.96 BROWNLEE '85 $741,394 $975,624 $0.327 $1. 67 IDAHO POWER COMPANY Case No.IPC-E- 90- 8 Exhibi t No.103T.Faull,Staff11/9/90 Page 3 of 3 .. CBBCATE OF SEVI I HEREBY CERTIFY THAT i HAVE THIS 9th DAY OF NOVEMBER, 1990, SERVED THE FOREGO I NG DIREC TESTIMO OF THMAS FAULL, CASE NO. IPC-E-90-8, ON ALL PARTIES OF RECORD BY MAILING A COpy THEREOF, POSTAGE PREPAID, TO THE FOLLOWING: LARRY D. RIPLEY, ESQ. LEGAL DEPARTMENT IDAHO POWER COMPANY P. O. BOX 70 BOISE, ID 83707 STEVEN L. HERNDON, ESQ. LEGAL DEPARTMENT IDAHO POWER COMPANY P. O. BOX 70 BOISE, ID 83707 HAROLD C. MILES IOAHO CONSUMER AFFAIRS, INC. 316 - 15TH AVENUE SOUTH NAMPA, 1D 83651 R. SCOTT PASLEY ASSISTANT GENERAL COUNSEL J. R. SIMPLOT COMPANY P. O. BOX 27 BOISE, ID 83707-0027 DAVID H. HAWK, DIRECTOR ENERGY NATURAL RESOURCES J. R. SIMPLOT COMPANY P. O. BOX 27 BOISE, ID 83707-0027 lCERT/142 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE GRANT E. TANNER, ESQ. DAVIS WRIGHT TREMAINE SUITE 2300 1300 S. W . FIFTH AVENUE PORTLAND, OR 97201 PETER J. RICHARDSON, ESQ. DAVIS WRIGHT TREMAINE 400 JEFFERSON PLACE 350 N. NINTH STREET BOISE, ID 83702 JAMES N. ROETHE, ESQ. PILLSBURY, MADISON & SUTRO P.O. BOX 7880 SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94120 R. MICHAEL SOUTHCOMBE, ESQ. CLEMONS, COSHO & HUMPHREY, 815 W. WASHINGTON STREET BOISE, ID 83702-5590 OWEN H. ORNDORFF ORNDORFF & PETERSON SUITE 230 1087W. RIVER STREET BOISE, ID 83702-7035 ~r;~SECRETAR~ -