20201015Application.pdf

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AnD AotPCompa.ry
DONOVAN E. WALKER
Lead Counsel
[e-mail]
October 15,2020
VIA HAND DELIVERY
Jan Noriyuki, Secretary
11331 W. Chinden Boulevard
Building 8, Suite 201-A
Boise, ldaho 83714
Re Case No. IPC-E-20-35
ldaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing to Update the Load and
Gas Forecast Components of the Incremental Cost lntegrated Resource
Plan Avoided Cost Methodology
Dear Ms.Noriyuki
Attached for electronic filing is ldaho Power Company'sAnnual Compliance Filing.
lf you have any questions about the aftached documents, please do not hesitate to
contact me.
Very truly yours,
fu?datq-
Donovan E. Walker
DEWcd
Enclosures
DONOVAN E. WALKER (lSB No. 5921)
ldaho Power Company
1221West Idaho Street (83702)
P.O. Box 70
Boise, Idaho 83707
Telephone: [phone]
Facsimile: [phone]
dwa [e-mail]
Attorney for ldaho Power Company
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL
COMPLIANCE FIL]NG TO UPDATE THE
LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST
MODEL.
CASE NO. rPC-E-20-35
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING
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ldaho Power Company ("ldaho Power'') hereby respectfully submits to the ldaho
Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing in compliance with Order Nos.
32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast and natural gas forecast components of the
Incremental Cost lntegrated Resource Plan ("!ClRP") avoided cost methodology.
I. INTRODUCTION
ln its final Order No. 32697, the Commission determined that the inputs to the
ICIRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory
Policies Act of 1978 ('PURPA") Qualifying Facility ('QF") projects that exceed the
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING . 1
published rate eligibility cap, wil! be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of
the utility's lntegrated Resource Plan ("lRP") filing, with the exception of the load forecast
and the natural gas forecast-which is to be updated annually by October 15 of each
year. The Commission stated:
We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up-
to-date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must
update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually -
between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these
annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR
updates - on June 1 of each year. ln addition, it is appropriate
to consider long-term contract commitments because of the
potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load
and resource balance. We find it reasonable to include long-
term contract considerations in an IRP Methodology
calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into
a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We
further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that
have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource
balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and
assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed
between IRP filings (every two years).
Order No. 32697, p.22. The date for the annual update was later changed from June 1
to October 15 of each year. Order No. 32802.
The load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below
in compliance with the Commission's Orders have been incorporated into ldaho Power's
ICIRP avoided cost methodology. Consistent with the Commission's prior Orders, this
methodology will be utilized by ldaho Power as the starting point for the negotiation of its
contractua! avoided cost rates as of October 15,2O2O.
II. LOAD FORECAST
Idaho Powe/s most recent load forecast from October 2O2O shows, on average
over the remaining period of the 2017 IRP, a decrease in its customer loads when
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 2
compared to the October 2019 load forecast that was provided to the Commission for the
2019 update in Case No. IPC-E-19'31 and approved by the Commission in Order No.
34510.
Table 1 and Graph 1 below show the average annual load forecast for both the
previously approved October 2019 load forecast and the most recent2O2O load forecast
through 2036.
TABLE 1
Average Annual Load Forecast
Year
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
October 2019
(aMW)
1,848
1,878
1,ggg
1,918
1,940
1,966
1,994
2,001
2,016
2,042
2,062
2,09'l
2,096
2,121
2,143
2,167
2,187
October 2020
(aMW)
1,825
1,952
1,890
1,923
1,938
1,960
1,997
2,012
2,021
2,041
2,053
2,067
2,077
2,095
2,112
2,132
2,148
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 3
GRAPH 1
III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
As of October 15,2020,ldaho Power will update the natural gas price forecast
within the IClRP avoided cost model to reflect the most recent EIA Natura! Gas Henry
Hub Spot Price: High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology forecast published on
January 29,2020. Use of this forecast indicates an overall decrease in the average
annual natural gas forecast prices over the remaining period in comparison to the EIA
2019 natural gas price forecast that was used in the ICIRP avoided cost model from the
previous update.
-Q6le!s1
2019 Load Forecast (aMW)
-Qql6[q1
2020 Load Forecast (aMW)
Load Forecast
",.pt "d) "dP "dP C "d .$." "S "du. "d "&" "df "dP "dP C "d "e"
2,250
2,200
2,150
2,LOO
2,050
2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
L,750
1,700
3
(u
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING .4
Table 2 and Graph 2 display the 2019 EIA natural gas price forecast and the
current 2020 EIA natural gas price forecast.
TABLE 2
EIA Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Price: High
Oi! and Gas Resource and Technology
Year
October 2019
(nominal
$/MMBtu)
October 2020
(nominal
$/MMBtu)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
3.07
3.11
3.14
3.18
3.40
3.67
3.86
3.99
4.08
4.16
4.24
4.33
4.46
4.63
4.74
4.89
5.01
2.69
2.80
2.76
2.65
2.73
2.98
3.29
3.48
3.56
3.59
3.61
3.68
3.78
3.90
3.99
4.07
4.18
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 5
GRAPH 2
Natural Gas Price Forecast
SS
-2019
Henry Hub EIA** (nominal)
-2020
Henry Hub EIA** (nominal)
Ss
=00
==1r\
=a!
.s
EoC
o(,
Lo-ti.!(o
.UL
=(!z
S+
Ss
Sz
Sr
So
C" .ud) "S "S d "'"? "d,t "$ d," "S d,' "d "$ "S S" d d"
Note: **ElA Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Price: High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology, adjusted lor 2O17
IRP ldaho City Gate delivery.
!V. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS. EXPIRATIONS. AND ADDITIONS
ldaho Power cunently has three non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements with projects that are online: Elkhorn Valley Wind (101 megawatts ('MW')),
Raft River Geothermal(13 MW), and Neal Hot Springs Geothermal(22 MW). ln addition,
the non-PURPA long-term power purchase agreement with Jackpot Holdings, LLC (120
MW) is scheduled to be online in December 2022.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING.6
ldaho Power currently has 134 contracts with PURPA QFs with a total nameplate
capacity of 1,148 MW. lncluded in this update for signed Energy Sales Agreements
("ESA') are fourteen replacement ESAs for existing ldaho QF projects totaling 18.98 MW
and one ESA for a new hydro ldaho QF of 0.8 MW. Additionally, one ESA for a 4.5 MW
biomass QF was terminated. Please see Attachment 1 attached hereto for a list of new
and terminated contracts since the last update on October 15, 2019. New ESAs,
terminated or expired contracts, as well as new complete ESA applications are all
included in the ICIRP model on a continuous basis.
V. GONCLUSION
ldaho Power hereby respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in
Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and asks the Commission to accept the same for filing.
Respectfully submitted this 15th day October 2020.
fuzilalq-
DONOVAN E. WALKER
Attorney for ldaho Power Company
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 7
BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTlLlTlES COIU}MISSION
cAsE NO. IPC-E-20-35
IDAHO POWER COMPANY
ATTACHMENT 1
Projects On-[ine
Resource Type
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
CoGen
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Proiect Name
Little Wood Rvr Res
Low Line Canal
Jim Knight Hydro
Sagebrush Hydro
Pico Energy, LLC
Marco Ranches
Lateral #10
Pristine Springs #1
Pristine Springs #3
LeMoyne Hydro
White Water Ranch
Hailey CSPP
Briggs Creek Hydro
Mud Creek White
State
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
Replacement Contract Date
LOlts/2ot9
tllLlzote
Ltl22l2OL9
LLl22l2OL9
LzlL3l2OL9
L/3Ll2O2O
2/612020
2/612020
21612020
3l2l2O2O
3l2l2O2O
3lL6l2O2O
4lL7l2O2O
8l3Ll2O2O
Proiect Size (MWl
2.85
8.20
0.48
0.s8
2.L3
L.20
2.06
0.13
0.20
0.08
0.16
0.04
0.50
0.29
TOTAL 18.98
Proiects Not On-Line
Resource Tvpe
Hydro
Proiect Name
Coleman Hydro
State
ID
Replacement Contract Date
6ltel2o2o
Proiect Size (MWl
0.80
TOTAL 0.80
Terminated Energy Sales Agreements
Resource Tvpe
Biomass
Proiect Name
Double A Digester
State
ID
Contract Termination Date
tLlL9l2OL9
Proiect Size (MWl
4.50
TOTAT 4.50