20191015Application.pdf

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An IDACORP Company
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DONOVAN E. WALKER
Lead Counse!
[e-mail]
October 15,2019
VIA HAND DELIVERY
Diane M. Hanian, Secretary
11331 W. Chinden Boulevard
Building 8, Suite 201-A
Boise, ldaho 83714
Re Case No. IPC-E-19-31
ldaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing to Update the Load
and Gas Forecast Components of the lncremental Cost lntegrated
Resource Plan Avoided Cost Methodology
Dear Ms. Hanian
Enclosed for filing in the above matter please find an original and seven (7)
copies of ldaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing.
Very yours,
n E. Walker
DEWKKT
Enclosures
DONOVAN E. WALKER (lSB No. 5921)
ldaho Power Company
1221\Nest ldaho Street (83702)
P.O. Box 70
Boise, ldaho 83707
Telephone: [phone]
Facsimile: [phone]
dwalker@idahopower. com
Attorney for Idaho Power Company
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTIL!T!ES COMM]SSION
RT C E IVED
?119 0[I l 5 Pl{ 2: l 6
ul!.) ')
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL
COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE THE
LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE
I NCREMENTAL COST I NTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST
MODEL.
CASE NO. IPC-E-19-31
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING
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ldaho Power Company ("ldaho Power") hereby respectfully submits to the Idaho
Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing in compliance with Order Nos.
32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast and natural gas forecast components of the
lncremental Cost !ntegrated Resource Plan ("!ClRP") avoided cost methodology.
I. INTRODUCTION
ln its final Order No. 32697, the Commission determined that the inputs to the
ICIRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory
Policies Act of 1978 ("PURPA') Qualifying Facility ("QF") projects that exceed the
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 1
published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of
the utility's lntegrated Resource Plan ("lRP") filing, with the exception of the load forecast
and the natural gas forecast-which is to be updated annually by October 15 of each
year. The Commission stated:
We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up-
to-date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must
update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually -
between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these
annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR
updates - on June 1 of each year. ln addition, it is appropriate
to consider long-term contract commitments because of the
potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load
and resource balance. We find it reasonable to include long-
term contract considerations in an !RP Methodology
calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into
a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We
further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that
have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource
balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and
assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed
between IRP filings (every two years).
Order No. 32697, p.22. The date for the annual update was later changed from June 1
to October 15 of each year. Order No. 32802.
The load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below
in compliance with the Commission's Orders have been incorporated into ldaho Power's
ICIRP avoided cost methodology. Consistent with the Commission's prior Orders, this
methodology will be utilized by ldaho Power as the starting point for the negotiation of its
contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15,2019.
II. LOAD FORECAST
ldaho Power's most recent load forecast from October 2019 shows, on average
over the remaining period of the 2017 lRP, no change in its customer loads when
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 2
compared to the October 2018load forecast that was provided to the Commission for the
2018 update in Case No. IPC-E-18-13 and approved bythe Commission in Order No.
34217.
Table 1 and Graph 1 below show the average annual load forecast for both the
previously approved October 2018load forecast and the most recent 2019load forecast
through 2036.
TABLE 1
Average Annual Load Forecast
Year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
October 2018
(aMWl
1,933
1,849
1,876
1,899
1,923
1,946
1,972
1,990
2,008
2,022
2,048
2,066
2,094
2,096
2,117
2,134
2,154
2,169
October 2019
(aMW)
1,825
1,848
1,878
1,899
1 ,918
1,940
1,966
1,994
2,001
2,016
2,042
2,062
2,081
2,096
2,121
2,143
2,167
2,187
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING.3
AMW
2,250
2,200
2,L50
2,100
2,0s0
2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
7,754
1,700
-Q6f6[p12018
Load Forecast (aMW)
-Q6{e[sp
2019 Load Forecast (aMW)
C C "ud| C "uS "dl C ,s," ,S "&. "d "..i" ".d) C "ud "u&" C "&"
GRAPH 1
III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
As of October 15,2019, ldaho Power will update the natural gas price forecast
within the ICIRP avoided cost model to reflect the most recent EIA Natural Gas Henry
Hub Spot Price: High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology forecast published on
January 24,2019. Use of this forecast indicates a minor decrease in the average annual
natural gas forecast prices over the remaining period in comparison to the EIA 2018
natural gas price forecast that was used in the ICIRP avoided cost model from the
previous update.
Table 2 and Graph 2 display the 2018 EIA natural gas price forecast and the
current 2019 EIA natural gas price forecast.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING .4
Load Forecast
TABLE 2
EIA Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Price: High
Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
Year
October 2018
(nominal
$/MMBtu)
October 2019
(nominal
$/MMBtu)
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
3.36
3.73
3.66
3.57
3.53
3.66
3.81
4.01
4.19
4.33
4.43
4.49
4.56
4.62
4.65
4.70
4.77
4.89
3.01
3.07
3.11
3.14
3.18
3.40
3.67
3.86
3.99
4.08
4.16
4.24
4.33
4.46
4.63
4.74
4.89
5.01
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 5
GRAPH 2
Natural Gas Price Forecast
SO
Ss
=Pco
<tt
=(o
.gtr6s3g
(u(J'=
o-
rli (f(t' ]L(9
EL
=(l]251 -2018
Henry Hub EIA** (nominal)
-20L9
Henry Hub EIA** (nominal)
So
".$ #" "S tr+ ',^S "$ "S ".y" "$ "S d S' "dl "S "^S "^&" 's S"
Note **ElA Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Price: High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology, adjusted lor 2017
IRP ldaho City Gate delivery.
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS, EXPIRATIONS, AND ADDITIONS
ldaho Power currently has three non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements with projects that are online: Elkhorn Valley Wind (101 megawatts ("MW")),
Raft River Geothermal (13 MW), and Neal Hot Springs Geothermal (22 MW). ln addition,
the long-term power purchase agreement with Jackpot Holdings, LLC (120 MW) is
currently under review at the Commission. See Case No. IPC-E-19-14.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING.6
ldaho Power currently has 134 contracts with PURPA QFs with a total nameplate
capacity of 1,152 MW. lncluded in this update for signed Energy Sales Agreements
("ESA') is the power purchase agreement with Jackpot Holdings, LLC for 120 MW, one
new Oregon solar QF ESA totaling 3.00 MW, and four replacement ESAs for existing
ldaho QF projects totaling 25.44 MW. Please see Attachment 1 attached hereto for a list
of new and terminated contracts since the last update on October 15,2018. New ESAs,
terminated or expired contracts, as well as new complete ESA applications are all
included in the ICIRP model on a continuous basis.
V. CONCLUSION
ldaho Power hereby respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in
Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and asks the Commission to accept the same for filing.
Respectfully submitted this 1Sth day October 2019.
NOVAN E.
Attorney for ldaho Power Company
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 7
BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
CASE NO. IPG.E.19.31
IDAHO POWER COMPANY
ATTACHMENT 1
Projects On-Line
Facility Type Project Name State Replacement Contract Date Project Size (MW)
Cogeneration
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Sim plot-Pocatello
Koyle Small Hydro
Black Canyon #3
Malad River
Cedar Draw
Birch Creek
Pigeon Cove
Snake River Pottery
Snedigar Hydro
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
ID
Projects Not On-Line
L2121/201.8
L/30l2O7e
Ll30lzole
2lt9l20L9
3lL4/2019
7l3l2o1e
7lt8l2oe
812312019
9/30/2O7e
15.90
1.25
0.13
7.t7
1.55
0.07
1..75
0.09
0.54
TOTAL 25.44
Facility Type Project Name State Contract Date Project Size (MW)
Solar
Solar
Jackpot Solar
Durkee Solar
ID
OR
3122/2O7s
4129/2O7s
120.00
3.00
TOTAT 123.00