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Home My WebLink About20201002Second Amended 2019 IRP.pdfI N T E G R A T E D R E S O U R C E P L A N 2019 BA L A N C I N G O U R EN ER GY N EEDS • TO DAY A N D TO M O R R OW SECOND AMENDED OCTOBER • 2020 Printed on recycled paper SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT This document may contain forward-looking statements, and it is important to note that the future results could differ materially from those discussed. A full discussion of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially can be found in Idaho Power’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Idaho Power Company Table of Contents Second Amended 2019 IRP Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................. i List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Appendices ....................................................................................................................... viii Glossary of Acronyms ................................................................................................................... ix Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary ............................................................................1 Introduction and Background ....................................................................................................1 Regulatory History .....................................................................................................................1 Comprehensive 2019 IRP Review Process ................................................................................1 Input Data and Source Review ............................................................................................2 Feeding Data into the Model ................................................................................................3 Model Settings and Processing ............................................................................................3 Model Output Review ..........................................................................................................3 IRP Review Results ...................................................................................................................3 Coal Plant Inputs & Cost Treatment ....................................................................................3 Natural Gas Plant Inputs ......................................................................................................4 Demand Response ................................................................................................................5 Financial Assumptions and Future Supply-Side Resources ................................................5 Transmission Inputs .............................................................................................................5 Reliability Inputs ..................................................................................................................6 Impact to Preferred Portfolio .....................................................................................................6 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................6 1. Overview ....................................................................................................................................8 Introduction ................................................................................................................................8 Public Advisory Process ............................................................................................................9 IRP Methodology .......................................................................................................................9 Greenhouse Gas Emissions ......................................................................................................11 CO2 Emissions Reduction ..................................................................................................12 Idaho Power Clean Energy Goal— Clean Today. Cleaner Tomorrow.™ ................................13 Portfolio Analysis Summary ....................................................................................................13 Comparison to Prior 2019 IRP Preferred Portfolios ................................................................15 Table of Contents Idaho Power Company Page ii Second Amended 2019 IRP Action Plan (2020–2026) .........................................................................................................16 Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date ...........................................................................................................18 Bridger Unit Exit Dates ...........................................................................................................18 Boardman to Hemingway Participant Update .........................................................................18 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues ..........................................................................20 Idaho Strategic Energy Alliance ..............................................................................................20 Idaho Energy Landscape ..........................................................................................................20 State of Oregon 2018 Biennial Energy Report ........................................................................21 FERC Relicensing ....................................................................................................................22 Idaho Water Issues ...................................................................................................................23 Variable Energy Resource Integration .....................................................................................25 Community Solar Pilot Program ..............................................................................................27 Idaho ..................................................................................................................................27 Oregon................................................................................................................................28 Renewable Energy Certificates ................................................................................................28 Renewable Portfolio Standard .................................................................................................29 Carbon Adder/Clean Power Plan .............................................................................................30 3. Idaho Power Today ..................................................................................................................31 Customer Load and Growth .....................................................................................................31 2018 Energy Sources ...............................................................................................................33 Existing Supply-Side Resources ..............................................................................................33 Hydroelectric Facilities ......................................................................................................34 Coal Facilities ....................................................................................................................38 Natural Gas Facilities and Salmon Diesel .........................................................................39 Solar Facilities ...................................................................................................................39 Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act ...............................................................................42 Non-PURPA Power Purchase Agreements .......................................................................43 Wholesale Contracts ..........................................................................................................44 Power Market Purchases and Sales ....................................................................................44 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources ..........................................................46 Generation Resources ..............................................................................................................46 Renewable Resources ..............................................................................................................46 Solar ...................................................................................................................................46 Idaho Power Company Table of Contents Second Amended 2019 IRP Page iii Geothermal .........................................................................................................................51 Hydroelectric......................................................................................................................52 Wind ...................................................................................................................................52 Biomass ..............................................................................................................................52 Thermal Resources...................................................................................................................53 Natural Gas-Fired Resources .............................................................................................53 Nuclear Resources .............................................................................................................55 Coal Resources ...................................................................................................................55 Storage Resources ....................................................................................................................56 Battery Storage...................................................................................................................56 Pumped-Storage Hydro ......................................................................................................57 5. Demand-Side Resources ..........................................................................................................58 Demand-Side Management Program Overview ......................................................................58 Energy Efficiency Forecasting—Potential Assessment ...........................................................58 Alternative Energy Efficiency Modeling Methods ..................................................................59 Sensitivity Modeling ..........................................................................................................59 Technically Achievable Supply Curve Bundling ..............................................................59 Future Energy Efficiency Potential ....................................................................................61 DSM Program Performance and Reliability ............................................................................61 Energy Efficiency Performance .........................................................................................61 Energy Efficiency Reliability ............................................................................................62 Demand Response Performance ........................................................................................63 Demand Response Resource Potential .....................................................................................64 T&D Deferral Benefits ............................................................................................................64 6. Transmission Planning .............................................................................................................66 Past and Present Transmission .................................................................................................66 Transmission Planning Process................................................................................................67 Local Transmission Planning .............................................................................................67 Regional Transmission Planning .......................................................................................67 Existing Transmission System .................................................................................................68 Idaho to Northwest Path.....................................................................................................68 Brownlee East Path ............................................................................................................69 Idaho–Montana Path ..........................................................................................................69 Table of Contents Idaho Power Company Page iv Second Amended 2019 IRP Borah West Path ................................................................................................................69 Midpoint West Path ...........................................................................................................69 Idaho–Nevada Path ............................................................................................................70 Idaho–Wyoming Path ........................................................................................................70 Idaho–Utah Path.................................................................................................................70 Boardman to Hemingway ........................................................................................................71 B2H Value .........................................................................................................................72 Project Participants ............................................................................................................72 Permitting Update ..............................................................................................................74 Next Steps ..........................................................................................................................75 B2H Cost Treatment in the IRP .........................................................................................75 Gateway West ..........................................................................................................................76 Nevada Transmission without North Valmy ...........................................................................77 Transmission Assumptions in the IRP Portfolios ....................................................................78 7. Planning Period Forecasts ..........................................................................................................80 Load Forecast ...........................................................................................................................80 Weather Effects ..................................................................................................................82 Economic Effects ...............................................................................................................82 Average-Energy Load Forecast .........................................................................................83 Peak-Hour Load Forecast ..................................................................................................84 Additional Firm Load ........................................................................................................86 Generation Forecast for Existing Resources ............................................................................87 Hydroelectric Resources ....................................................................................................87 Coal Resources ...................................................................................................................89 Natural Gas Resources .......................................................................................................91 Natural Gas Price Forecast .......................................................................................................91 Natural Gas Transport ..............................................................................................................94 Analysis of IRP Resources ......................................................................................................94 Resource Costs—IRP Resources .......................................................................................95 LCOC—IRP Resources .....................................................................................................95 LCOE—IRP Resources .....................................................................................................98 Resource Attributes—IRP Resources ..............................................................................100 8. Portfolios ................................................................................................................................102 Idaho Power Company Table of Contents Second Amended 2019 IRP Page v Capacity Expansion Modeling ...............................................................................................102 Planning Margin.....................................................................................................................102 Portfolio Design Overview ....................................................................................................103 Regulating Reserve ................................................................................................................104 Framework for Expansion Modeling .....................................................................................105 Natural Gas Price Forecasts .............................................................................................106 Carbon Price Forecasts ....................................................................................................106 WECC-Optimized Portfolio Design Results .........................................................................108 Manually Built Portfolios ......................................................................................................109 9. Modeling Analysis .................................................................................................................111 Portfolio Cost Analysis ..........................................................................................................111 Manually Built Portfolios ......................................................................................................115 Stochastic Risk Analysis ..................................................................................................119 Portfolio Emission Results ...............................................................................................123 Qualitative Risk Analysis ......................................................................................................124 Major Qualitative Risks ...................................................................................................124 Operational Considerations ..............................................................................................126 Frequency Duration Loss of Load Evaluation .......................................................................126 Regional Resource Adequacy ................................................................................................127 Northwest Seasonal Resource Availability Forecast .......................................................127 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan .......................................................................................131 Preferred Portfolio .................................................................................................................131 Action Plan (2020–2026) .......................................................................................................132 120 MW Solar PV Capacity (2022) .................................................................................133 Exit from Coal-Fired Generating Capacity ......................................................................133 Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date ...................................................................................................133 B2H On-line in 2026 ........................................................................................................134 Demand Response ............................................................................................................134 Action Plan (2020–2026) .................................................................................................134 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................135 Table of Contents Idaho Power Company Page vi Second Amended 2019 IRP LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Preferred Portfolio additions and coal exits (MW) .....................................................15 Table 1.2 Action Plan (2020–2026) ............................................................................................17 Table 3.1 Historical capacity, load and customer data ...............................................................32 Table 3.2 Existing resources .......................................................................................................34 Table 3.3 Customer generation service customer count as of March 31, 2019 ..........................41 Table 3.4 Customer generation service generation capacity (MW) as of March 31, 2019 ........41 Table 4.1 Summary of capacity value results .............................................................................49 Table 4.2 Solar capacity required to defer infrastructure investments .......................................51 Table 5.1 Technical achievable bundles size and average cost ..................................................60 Table 5.2 Total energy efficiency portfolio cost-effectiveness summary, 2018 program performance .............................................................................................................................62 Table 5.3 2018 Demand response program capacity ..................................................................63 Table 6.1 Transmission import capacity .....................................................................................71 Table 6.2 B2H capacity and permitting cost allocation ..............................................................73 Table 6.3 Transmission assumptions and requirements .............................................................78 Table 7.1 Load forecast—average monthly energy (aMW) .......................................................84 Table 7.2 Load forecast—peak hour (MW) ................................................................................85 Table 7.3 Utility peer natural gas price forecast methodology ...................................................91 Table 7.4 Resource attributes ....................................................................................................101 Table 8.1 RegUp approximation—percentage of hourly load MW, wind MW, and solar MW ...............................................................................................................................105 Table 8.2 RegDn approximation—percentage of hourly load MW, wind MW, and solar MW ...............................................................................................................................105 Table 8.3 Non-B2H portfolio reference numbers .....................................................................107 Table 8.4 B2H portfolio reference numbers .............................................................................107 Table 8.5 WECC-Optimized Portfolios Selected for Manual Adjustments .............................110 Table 9.1 Financial assumptions ...............................................................................................111 Table 9.2 AURORA hourly simulations ...................................................................................112 Table 9.3 2019 IRP WECC-optimized portfolios, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) ............112 Table 9.4 Jim Bridger exit scenarios ........................................................................................115 Table 9.5 2019 IRP manually built portfolios, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) .................117 Idaho Power Company Table of Contents Second Amended 2019 IRP Page vii Table 9.6 2019 IRP manually built portfolios, WECC buildout comparison, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) ...........................................................................................................118 Table 9.7 2019 IRP Manually built portfolios with Valmy exit year-end 2022, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) ...........................................................................................................119 Table 9.8 Coal retirement forecast ............................................................................................128 Table 10.1 AURORA hourly simulations ...................................................................................131 Table 10.2 Preferred Portfolio additions and coal exits (MW) ...................................................132 Table 10.3 Action Plan (2020–2026) ..........................................................................................134 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Estimated Idaho Power CO2 emissions intensity ........................................................12 Figure 1.2 Estimated Idaho Power CO2 emissions ......................................................................12 Figure 3.1 Historical capacity, load, and customer data ..............................................................32 Figure 3.2 2018 energy sources ...................................................................................................33 Figure 3.3 PURPA contracts by resource type .............................................................................42 Figure 4.1 Capacity value of solar PV .........................................................................................48 Figure 4.2 Marginal capacity value ..............................................................................................49 Figure 4.3 Capacity value of incremental solar PV projects (40 MW each) ...............................50 Figure 5.1 Energy-efficient bundles selected by the IRP model and bundles that were not economically competitive and were not selected for the 2019 IRP portfolios ........................61 Figure 5.2 Cumulative annual growth in energy efficiency compared with IRP targets .............62 Figure 5.3 Historic annual demand response program performance ...........................................64 Figure 6.1 Idaho Power transmission system map .......................................................................68 Figure 6.2 B2H route submitted in 2017 EFSC Application for Site Certificate .........................74 Figure 6.3 Gateway West map .....................................................................................................77 Figure 7.1 Average monthly load-growth forecast ......................................................................83 Figure 7.2 Peak-hour load-growth forecast (MW) .......................................................................85 Figure 7.3 Brownlee inflow volume historical and modeled percentiles .....................................88 Figure 7.4 North American major gas basins ...............................................................................93 Figure 7.5 Levelized capacity (fixed) costs in 2019 dollars ........................................................97 Figure 7.6 Levelized cost of energy (at stated capacity factors) in 2023 dollars .........................99 Figure 8.1 2017 versus 2019 IRP planning margin comparison (MW) .....................................103 Table of Contents Idaho Power Company Page viii Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 8.2 Carbon Price Forecast ...............................................................................................107 Figure 8.3 WECC-optimized portfolios 1 through 12 (non-B2H portfolios), capacity additions/reductions (MW) ....................................................................................................108 Figure 8.4 WECC-optimized portfolios 13 through 24 (B2H portfolios), capacity additions/reductions (MW) ....................................................................................................109 Figure 9.1 NPV cost versus cost variance ..................................................................................114 Figure 9.2 Natural gas sampling (Nominal $/MMBtu) ..............................................................120 Figure 9.3 Customer load sampling (annual MWh) ...................................................................121 Figure 9.4 Hydro generation sampling (annual MWh) ..............................................................121 Figure 9.5 Portfolio stochastic analysis, total portfolio cost, NPV years 2019–2038 ($x 1,000) ...............................................................................................................................122 Figure 9.6 Manually built portfolio stochastic analysis with Valmy exit year-end 2022, total portfolio cost, NPV years 2019–2038 ($x 1,000) ..................................................................122 Figure 9.7 Estimated portfolio emissions from 2019–2038 .......................................................123 Figure 9.8 Estimated portfolio emissions from 2019–2038—manually built portfolios ...........124 Figure 9.9 LOLP by month—Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment of 2023 ...............................................................................................................128 Figure 9.10 BPA white book PNW surplus/deficit one-hour capacity (1937 critical water year) .............................................................................................................................129 Figure 9.11 Peak coincident load data for most major Washington and Oregon utilities ...........129 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A—Sales and Load Forecast Appendix B—Demand-Side Management 2018 Annual Report Appendix C—Technical Appendix Appendix D—Boardman to Hemingway Update Idaho Power Company Glossary of Acronyms Second Amended 2019 IRP Page ix GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS A/C—Air Conditioning AC—Alternating Current ACE—Affordable Clean Energy AECO—Alberta Energy Company AFUDC—Allowance for Funds Used During Construction AgI—Silver Iodide akW—Average Kilowatt aMW—Average Megawatt ATB—Annual Technology Baseline ATC—Available Transfer Capacity B2H—Boardman to Hemingway BLM—Bureau of Land Management BPA—Bonneville Power Administration CAA—Clean Air Act of 1970 CAISO—California Independent System Operator CAMP—Comprehensive Aquifer Management Plan CBM—Capacity Benefit Margin CCCT—Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbine CEM—Capacity Expansion Model cfs—Cubic Feet per Second CHP—Combined Heat and Power CHQ—Corporate headquarters Clatskanie PUD—Clatskanie People’s Utility District CO2—Carbon Dioxide COE—United States Army Corps of Engineers CPP—Clean Power Plan CSPP—Cogeneration and Small-Power Producers CWA—Clean Water Act of 1972 DC—Direct Current DOE—Department of Energy DPO—Draft Proposed Order DSM—Demand-Side Management EFSC—Energy Facility Siting Council EGU—Electric Generating Unit EIA—Energy Information Administration EIM—Energy Imbalance Market EIS—Environmental Impact Statement EPA—Environmental Protection Agency Glossary of Acronyms Idaho Power Company Page x Second Amended 2019 IRP ESA—Endangered Species Act of 1973 ESPA—Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer ESPAM—Enhanced Snake Plain Aquifer Model F—Fahrenheit FCRPS—Federal Columbia River Power System FERC—Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FPA—Federal Power Act of 1920 FWS—US Fish and Wildlife Service GHG—Greenhouse Gas GPCM—Gas Pipeline Competition Model GWMA—Ground Water Management Area HB—House Bill HCC—Hells Canyon Complex HRSG—Heat Recovery Steam Generator IDWR—Idaho Department of Water Resources IEPR—Integrated Energy Policy Report IGCC—Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle INL—Idaho National Laboratory IPMVP—International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol IPUC—Idaho Public Utilities Commission IRP—Integrated Resource Plan IRPAC—IRP Advisory Council ISEA—Idaho Strategic Energy Alliance IWRB—Idaho Water Resource Board kV—Kilovolt kW—Kilowatt kWh—Kilowatt-Hour LCOC—Levelized Cost of Capacity LCOE—Levelized Cost of Energy LDC—Load-Duration Curve Li—Lithium Ion LiDAR—Light Detection and Ranging LNG—Liquefied Natural Gas LOG—Low Oil and Gas LOLP—Loss-of-Load Probability LTCE—Long-Term Capacity Expansion LTP—Local Transmission Plan m2—Square Meters MATL—Montana–Alberta Tie Line MOU—Memorandum of Understanding Idaho Power Company Glossary of Acronyms Second Amended 2019 IRP Page xi MSA—Metropolitan Statistical Area MW—Megawatt MWAC—Megawatt Alternating Current MWh—Megawatt-Hour NEEA—Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance NEPA—National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 NERC—North American Electric Reliability Corporation NLDC—Net Load-Duration Curve NOx—Nitrogen Oxide NPV—Net Present Value NREL—National Renewable Energy Laboratory NTTG—Northern Tier Transmission Group NWPCC—Northwest Power and Conservation Council NYMEX—New York Mercantile Exchange O&M—Operation and Maintenance OATT—Open-Access Transmission Tariff ODEQ—Oregon Department of Environmental Quality ODOE—Oregon Department of Energy OEMR—Office of Energy and Mineral Resources OFPC—Official Forward Price Curve OPUC—Public Utility Commission of Oregon ORS—Oregon Revised Statute pASC—Preliminary Application for Site Certificate PCA—Power Cost Adjustment PGE—Portland General Electric PM&E—Protection, Mitigation, and Enhancement PPA—Power Purchase Agreement PURPA—Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 PV—Photovoltaic QA—Quality Assurance QF—Qualifying Facility RAAC—Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee REC—Renewable Energy Certificate RFP—Request for Proposal RH BART—Regional Haze Best Available Retrofit Technology RICE—Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine RMJOC—River Management Joint Operating Committee ROD—Record of Decision ROR—Run-of-River ROW—Right-of-Way RPS—Renewable Portfolio Standard RTF—Regional Technical Forum Glossary of Acronyms Idaho Power Company Page xii Second Amended 2019 IRP SCCT—Simple-Cycle Combustion Turbine SCR—Selective Catalytic Reduction SMR—Small Modular Reactor SNOWIE—Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: the Idaho Experiment SO2—Sulfur Dioxide SRBA—Snake River Basin Adjudication SRPM—Snake River Planning Model T&D—Transmission and Distribution TRC—Total Resource Cost UAMPS—Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems US—United States USBR—United States Bureau of Reclamation USFS—United States Forest Service VER—Variable Energy Resources VRB—Vanadium Redox-Flow Battery WECC—Western Electricity Coordinating Council Idaho Power Company Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 1 SECOND AMENDED 2019 IRP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction and Background Idaho Power’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for 2019—detailed herein and referenced as the Second Amended 2019 IRP—is the culmination of a deep examination of the company’s IRP modeling processes and practices, as well as a holistic assessment of a wide range of potential resource futures. Idaho Power’s final Preferred Portfolio represents the best combination of least- cost and least-risk resource actions for customers, while furthering the company’s efforts to achieve its commitment to reliably providing 100-percent clean energy by 2045. The final 2019 Preferred Portfolio is a manually optimized scenario constructed under planning gas and planning carbon conditions with the selection of the Boardman to Hemingway (B2H) transmission line. As such, the Preferred Portfolio is referenced as PGPC B2H (1). This portfolio started with similar resources to those selected in the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC)-optimized Portfolios 13 and 14, which were grouped together for the manual adjustment process due to their similarities. This document and the associated appendices are intended to replace both the initial IRP, filed on June 28, 2019, as well as the Amended 2019 IRP, filed on January 31, 2020. For the sake of clarity, the company believes a new standalone set of documents offers a clear representation of the 2019 IRP’s findings and conclusions, rather than attempting to provide an addendum detailing elements that changed and those that did not. . Regulatory History Idaho Power filed its original IRP with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) and the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) on June 28, 2019 and its Amended 2019 IRP on January 31, 2020. In June of 2020, the Company identified necessary changes in the Amended 2019 IRP, which prompted Idaho Power to initiate a comprehensive review of its modeling and analysis. This final 2019 IRP document—the Second Amended 2019 IRP—reflects the culmination of prior IRP learnings and subsequent adjustments related to the recent IRP review process. The IRP review and outcomes are outlined below, while a more detailed account is provided in the separate 2019 IRP Review Report, filed alongside the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Comprehensive 2019 IRP Review Process Idaho Power’s 2019 IRP review, conducted in July 2020, involved a comprehensive four-step process to deconstruct and examine all aspects of this IRP cycle, from model inputs to model outputs. To conduct this review, the company formed a multidisciplinary team (IRP Review Team) of subject matter experts from its Planning, Engineering and Construction and Power Supply departments and Finance departments. Additional support and consultation were provided throughout each step of the process by members of the company’s Internal Audit and Regulatory Affairs departments to ensure a consistent and methodical review. Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Idaho Power Company Page 2 Second Amended 2019 IRP The company identified several objectives for the 2019 IRP review: • Provide clarity over the entire IRP development process • Verify the accuracy and modeling of key inputs • Validate model outputs • Make processes more visible across the company • Create consistency in the manner each step is performed • Ensure compliance with industry standards/regulations Detailed in the following sections are the specific actions taken within each step of the review process: Input Data and Source Review The IRP Review Team began with a full examination of input data related to the IRP process. A total of 11 sub-teams were formed, each with appropriate subject matter experts, to examine individual categories of input data used in the company’s long-term planning tool, the AURORA model. The following are categories of inputs reviewed: • Forecast inputs for natural gas price (sub-team 1), hydrologic system and stream flow (sub-team 2), and the company’s load forecast (sub-team 3) • Supply-side inputs related to the company’s coal units (sub-team 4), natural gas plants (sub-team 5), and co-generator & small power producers and PURPA contracts (sub-team 6) • Demand-side inputs related to demand response and energy efficiency programs (sub-team 7) • Transmission system-related inputs (sub-team 8), including those related to the B2H project (sub-team 9) • Financial inputs and Future Supply-Side Resources (sub-team 10) related to items such as the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, fixed and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, property tax treatment, and modeled future supply-side resources • Reliability inputs (sub-team 11) related to the company’s regulating reserve requirements The sub-teams reviewed all aspects of these inputs, including cross-verification against source materials, examination and investigation of supporting models that produce AURORA input data (e.g., two hydrologic and streamflow models), review of regulatory decisions and orders that determined specific AURORA input treatment, and evaluation of internal methodologies and processes for developing Idaho Power-specific data (e.g., the company load forecast). Idaho Power Company Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 3 Feeding Data into the Model In the second step of the review, the IRP Review Team examined the ways in which the above inputs are incorporated into the AURORA model. This step involved validating any necessary data transformations or conversions to make the inputs “model ready.” For instance, some inputs must be converted from one unit to another to meet AURORA specifications. The IRP Review Team ensured that all such conversions and transformations were conducted properly and that data fed into AURORA were accurate. Model Settings and Processing Next, the IRP Review Team analyzed how the AURORA model treats data within the model itself—referred to as modeling logic. For this step, the team worked in consultation with Energy Exemplar, the developers of the AURORA model, to further verify model processes and specifications. Additionally, this step of the review involved a thorough assessment of AURORA system settings to ensure that data within the model were interacting in a logical manner and consistent with Idaho Power’s knowledge of its own system and resources. Model Output Review Finally, the IRP Review Team examined the consistency and accuracy of the AURORA model outputs to ensure that the model was producing logical and consistent results. Ultimately, the company believes that this review process has provided increased transparency into the complexities of the IRP development and has provided valuable lessons and insights that will be applied to future IRP processes. IRP Review Results Through the above four-step review process, the company identified several appropriate changes to model inputs and treatment of data within the model. Some of these changes were identified by the company prior to the review process and were the basis for the July 1, 2020, Motion to Suspend. Each of these identified issues were carefully documented and resolved, as more fully described in the 2019 IRP Review Report. A summary of the identified adjustments is shown below. Coal Plant Inputs & Cost Treatment Idaho Power identified adjustments related to the treatment of its coal plants in the IRP modeling process: Jim Bridger Power Plant (Bridger) 1. The financial assumptions used to calculate the revenue requirement for the Bridger coal units did not match the financial assumptions used to calculate the revenue requirement for all supply-side resources. These assumptions were reviewed, corrected, and now are consistent with the treatment of other supply-side resources. 2. In the portfolio costing, AURORA truncated fixed costs at the point a Bridger unit is shut down, resulting in avoided O&M and forecasted capital additions. As a result, the Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Idaho Power Company Page 4 Second Amended 2019 IRP remaining net book value of the unit at the time of its exit must be added back to the total portfolio cost. This adjustment was made, and portfolio costs reflect the appropriate NBV. 3. In the remaining net book value added back to the total portfolio cost, common facility costs were truncated for Bridger units that retired early. As a result, the truncated common facility costs must be included in the remaining net book value added back to the total portfolio cost. This adjustment was made, and portfolio costs reflect the appropriate NBV. 4. Idaho Power’s share of the variable operations and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with the Bridger units should have been modeled as one-third of the total projected costs. This adjustment was made and now reflects the appropriate Idaho Power one-third share. 5. The fixed cost rates for Bridger Unit 4 were inadvertently referencing the table of fixed costs for Bridger Unit 3 within AURORA. This adjustment was made and the fixed cost rates for Unit 4 now reference the correct table. Valmy Fixed Costs 1. The financial assumptions to calculate the incremental revenue requirement for Valmy did not match the financial assumptions used to calculate the revenue requirement for all supply-side resources. 2. The Valmy fixed O&M rate needed to be updated to adequately capture savings associated with the exit of Unit 2 prior to 2025. It should be noted that after making these adjustments, Idaho Power identified the potential for additional savings associated with a Unit 2 exit as early as 2022. This issue is discussed in greater detail in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section of Chapter 1. Bridger, Valmy and Boardman Variable O&M The variable O&M rates for Bridger, Valmy, and Boardman should have been input as a nominal 2012 amount and escalated to a 2019 amount rather than reflected as a 2019 nominal amount, as per the AURORA model input requirements. This adjustment was made, and the variable O&M rates entered into the model reflect the 2012 nominal values. Natural Gas Plant Inputs Three adjustments were identified in the review of various natural gas inputs: 1. Natural Gas Transport Costs: Variable transport costs were inadvertently not included in the model. This small cost stream was reviewed for accuracy and added to the natural gas input costs. 2. Natural Gas Peaker Plant Start-Up Costs: The maintenance costs associated with natural gas peaker plants were captured only as a variable cost applied directly to the runtime of the unit. Startup costs were not included, which resulted in more frequent dispatch of the peaker plants and for shorter durations than expected. After identifying the issue, the Idaho Power Company Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 5 startup costs were entered, resulting in a reduction in peaker dispatch and reflecting a logical and expected outcome. 3. Langley Gulch Ramp Rate: The ramp rate for the Langley Gulch natural gas plant was set for 100 percent. Upon review, this rate was reduced to 60 percent to better reflect actual plant operations. Demand Response In the review process, Idaho Power tested an alternative approach to modeling demand response (DR). In prior versions of the 2019 IRP, expanded DR programs were modeled such that dispatch of said programs would only execute when Idaho Power’s resources were in deficit. That is, expanded DR was being treated as a last-resort resource. In the IRP review, which analyzed the treatment of all resources, Idaho Power opted to treat DR as a resource to offset peak load. While the prior approach was not incorrect, the revised approach is more consistent with the way Idaho Power’s DR programs work in practice. Financial Assumptions and Future Supply-Side Resources Two adjustments were identified related to the financial assumptions of new resource additions in AURORA: 1. Property tax rates were outdated. Upon review, the rates were adjusted to reflect information available when the 2019 IRP analysis was originally performed. 2. Annual insurance premium rates inadvertently reflected the wrong decimal place value. This issue was corrected during the review process. Transmission Inputs In the review process, two categories of necessary adjustments were identified related to transmission characteristics: 1. The loss and/or wheeling rates applied to some transmission lines required adjustment. Rates were adjusted as appropriate and now reflect correct information. 2. The following adjustments to transmission capacity were identified in the review process and have been entered into AURORA: a. Following exit from the Boardman coal plant, available transmission capacity was understated (53 megawatts (MW)). b. The Idaho Power transmission export capacity on Boardman to Hemingway was understated (85 MW). c. Idaho to Northwest west-to-east capacity in January through May and September through December post July 2026 was understated (200 MW). d. The transmission capacity on Bridger West was adjusted to reflect Idaho Power’s ownership share. Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Idaho Power Company Page 6 Second Amended 2019 IRP Reliability Inputs Two adjustments were identified: 1. The solar and wind allocation factors for downward regulation referenced the upward allocation factors. These allocation factors are now referencing downward regulation. 2. Valmy Unit 2 was modeled with the ability to provide regulation reserves, but the unit cannot provide regulation reserves. This adjustment was made, and Valmy Unit 2 is now modeled appropriately. Impact to Preferred Portfolio While the review process helped identify a number of important adjustments and refinements to the IRP process, the Preferred Portfolio remains very similar to the portfolio selected in the Amended 2019 IRP. The final 2019 Preferred Portfolio is a manually optimized scenario conducted under planning gas and planning carbon conditions with the selection of the Boardman to Hemingway (B2H) transmission line. As such, the Preferred Portfolio is referenced as PGPC B2H (1). This portfolio was built off the combination of Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC)-optimized Portfolios 13 and 14, which were grouped together for the manual adjustment process due to their similarities. The remainder of this document details the overall process and results of Idaho Power’s Second Amended 2019 IRP, incorporating all modeling and input changes detailed in this Executive Summary. It is important to note that while there were multiple changes to the analysis, it resulted in only one potential change to Idaho Power’s Preferred Portfolio near-term 2019–2026 Action Plan—the exit timing of Valmy Unit 2, which is explored in greater detail in Chapter 1. Overall, the results of the Second Amended 2019 IRP continue to support a number of key components that position Idaho Power to reliably and cost-effectively serve customers across the 20-year planning period. The B2H transmission line continues to be a top performing resource alternative, providing Idaho Power access to clean and low-cost energy in the Pacific Northwest wholesale electric market. The Second Amended 2019 IRP also indicates favorable economics associated with Idaho Power’s exit from five of seven coal-fired generating units by the end of 2026 and exit from the remaining two units at the Jim Bridger facility by year-end 2030. Additionally, the Preferred Portfolio includes 15 MW of additional demand response compared to the Preferred Portfolio identified in the Amended 2019 IRP. This Preferred Portfolio also supports the expanded use of renewables and energy storage, and the 2019–2026 Action Plan continues to reflect the important addition of 120 MW of solar through the construction of the Jackpot Solar Facility at year-end 2022. Conclusion Completion of Idaho Power’s 2019 IRP has taken more than 18 months. While the company recognizes that this is an abnormal timeframe to complete a resource plan, Idaho Power is grateful for the opportunity to pause and review the company’s resource planning practices in full, particularly in light of the new modeling elements. The IRP review process has helped Idaho Power Company Second Amended 2019 IRP Executive Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 7 ensure that Idaho Power’s IRP efforts moving forward are more efficient, transparent, and replicable. Further, Idaho Power appreciates the patience of the Idaho and Oregon public utility commissions, their staffs, members of the IRP Advisory Council (IRPAC), and other stakeholders as the company worked through the modeling challenges presented by its first time using a computer-based optimizer to construct resource portfolios. From Idaho Power’s concentrated efforts on the IRP, Idaho Power believes the resulting Second Amended 2019 IRP presents the least-cost, least-risk future for Idaho Power and its customers. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company Page 8 Second Amended 2019 IRP 1. OVERVIEW Introduction The 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is Idaho Power’s 14th resource plan prepared in accordance with regulatory requirements and guidelines established by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) and the Public Utility Commission of Oregon (OPUC). Idaho Power’s resource planning process has four primary goals: 1. Identify sufficient resources to reliably serve the growing demand for energy and flexible capacity within Idaho Power’s service area throughout the 20-year planning period. 2. Ensure the selected resource portfolio balances cost, risk, and environmental concerns. 3. Give equal and balanced treatment to supply-side resources, demand-side measures, and transmission resources. 4. Involve the public in the planning process in a meaningful way. The 2019 IRP evaluates the 20-year planning period from 2019 through 2038. During this period, Idaho Power’s load is forecasted to grow by 1.0 percent per year for average energy demand and 1.2 percent per year for peak-hour demand. Total customers are expected to increase from 550,000 in 2018 to 775,000 by 2038. Meeting this increased demand will require additional resources. Currently, Idaho Power owns and operates 17 hydroelectric projects, 3 natural gas-fired plants, 1 diesel-powered plant, and shares ownership in 3 coal-fired facilities. The company’s existing supply-side resources are further detailed in Chapter 3, while possible future supply-side resources, including storage, are explored in Chapter 4. Other resources relied on for planning include demand-side management (DSM) and transmission resources, which are further explored in Chapters 5 and 6, respectively. The goal of DSM programs is to achieve prudent, cost-effective energy efficiency savings and provide an optimal amount of peak reduction from demand response programs. Idaho Power also strives to provide customers with tools and information to help them manage their own energy use. The company achieves these objectives through the implementation and careful management of incentive programs and through outreach and education. Idaho Power’s resource planning process also includes evaluating additional transmission capacity as a resource alternative to serve retail customers. Transmission projects are often regional resources, and Idaho Power coordinates transmission planning as a member of NorthernGrid. Idaho Power is obligated under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regulations to plan and expand its local transmission system to provide requested firm transmission service to third parties and to construct and place in service sufficient transmission Idaho Power Company 1. Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 9 capacity to reliably deliver energy and capacity to network customers1 and Idaho Power retail customers.2 The delivery of energy, both within the Idaho Power system and through regional transmission interconnections, is of increasing importance for several reasons. First, adequate transmission is essential for robust participation in the Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) and second, it is necessary in a future with high penetrations of variable energy resources (VER) and their associated intermittent production. The timing of new transmission projects is subject to complex permitting, siting, and regulatory requirements and coordination with co-participants. Public Advisory Process Idaho Power has involved representatives of the public in the resource planning process since the early 1990s. The public forum is known as the IRP Advisory Council (IRPAC). The IRPAC meets most months during the development of the resource plan, and the meetings are open to the public. Members of the council include the staff of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) and the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC), political, environmental, and customer representatives, as well as representatives of other public-interest groups. Many members of the public also participate even though they are not members of the IRPAC. Some individuals have participated in Idaho Power’s resource planning process for over 20 years. A list of the 2019 IRPAC members can be found in Appendix C—Technical Appendix. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power facilitated eight IRPAC meetings, and two more for the Amended 2019 IRP. In response to stakeholder feedback for the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power implemented and maintained an online forum for stakeholders to submit requests for information and for Idaho Power to provide responses to information requests. The forum allows stakeholders to develop their understanding of the IRP process, particularly its key inputs, consequently enabling more meaningful stakeholder involvement during the process. The company makes presentation slides and other materials used at the IRPAC meetings, in addition to the question-submission forum and other IRP documents, available to the public through its website at idahopower.com/IRP. IRP Methodology The primary goal of the IRP is to ensure Idaho Power’s system has sufficient resources to reliably serve customer demand and flexible capacity needs over the 20-year planning period. The company has historically developed portfolios to eliminate resource deficiencies identified in a 20-year load and resource balance. Under this process, Idaho Power developed portfolios that were quantifiably demonstrated to eliminate the identified resource deficiencies, and qualitatively varied by resource type, in which the considered resource types reflected Idaho Power’s understanding that the economic performance of a resource class is dependent on future conditions in energy markets and energy policy. 1 Idaho Power has a regulatory obligation to construct and provide transmission service to network or wholesale customers pursuant to a FERC tariff. 2 Idaho Power has a regulatory obligation to construct and operate its system to reliably meet the needs of native load or retail customers. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company Page 10 Second Amended 2019 IRP Idaho Power received comments on the 2017 IRP encouraging the use of Capacity Expansion Modeling (CEM) for 2019 IRP portfolio development. In response, the company elected to use the AURORA model’s capacity expansion modeling capability to develop portfolios for the 2019 IRP. Under this process, the alternative future scenarios are formulated first, and then the AURORA model is used to develop portfolios optimal to the selected alternative future scenarios. For example, the AURORA CEM can be expected under an alternative future scenario using a high natural gas price forecast and/or high cost of carbon to produce a portfolio having substantial expansion of non-carbon emitting resources, such as wind and solar generation, because a portfolio is likely to be economic under such a scenario. The use of capacity expansion modeling has resulted in a departure from Idaho Power’s formerly employed practice of developing resource portfolios to specifically eliminate resource deficiencies identified by a load and resource balance. Under the capacity expansion modeling approach used for the 2019 IRP, the AURORA model selects from the variety of supply- and demand-side resource options to develop portfolios that are least-cost for the given alternative future scenarios with the objective of meeting a 15-percent planning margin and regulating reserve requirements associated with balancing load, wind, and solar-plant output. The model can also select to retire existing generation units, as well as build resources based on economics absent a defined capacity need. The capacity expansion modeling process is discussed in further detail in Chapter 8. To ensure the AURORA-produced portfolios provide customers reliable and affordable energy, Idaho Power selected a subset of top-performing AURORA-produced portfolios to determine if additional resource modifications—primarily accelerated coal retirements—could further reduce costs and help achieve Idaho Power’s clean energy commitments more quickly. Going forward, these modifications are referred to as “manual adjustments.” Modeling analysis, including in-depth discussion of manual adjustments, is examined in Chapter 9. To meet objectives for planning margin and regulating reserve requirements, the AURORA model accounts for the capability of the existing system and selects from the pool of new supply- and demand-side resource options only when the existing system comes short of meeting objectives. Existing supply-side resources include generation resources and transmission import capacity from regional wholesale electric markets. Existing demand-side resources include current levels of demand response and savings from current energy efficiency programs and measures. Idaho Power conducts a financial analysis of costs and benefits of the developed portfolios. The financial costs include construction, fuel, O&M, transmission upgrades associated with interconnecting new resource options, natural gas pipeline reservation or new natural gas pipeline infrastructure, projected wholesale market purchases, and anticipated environmental controls. The financial benefits include economic resource options, projected wholesale market sales, and the market value of renewable energy certificates (REC) for REC-eligible resources. Idaho Power’s balancing area is part of the larger western interconnection. Idaho Power must balance loads and generation per North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) system reliability standards. For example, during times of acute oversupply (with no ability to sell into the market), Idaho Power must rely on available system resources to regain intra-hour Idaho Power Company 1. Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 11 balance and must sometimes curtail intermittent resources like wind and solar. Power markets are available via transmission lines to purchase or sell power inter-hour to balance the system. An additional transmission connection to the Pacific Northwest has been part of Idaho Power’s preferred resource portfolio since the 2006 IRP. By the 2009 IRP, Idaho Power determined the approximate configuration and capacity of the transmission line. Since 2009, the addition has been called the Boardman to Hemingway (B2H) Transmission Line Project and the project has been included in the four subsequent IRPs. Idaho Power again evaluated the B2H transmission line in the 2019 IRP to ensure the transmission addition remains a prudent resource acquisition. Further discussion of the treatment of B2H in the 2019 IRP’s capacity expansion modeling is provided in Chapter 8. While an IRP addresses Idaho Power’s long-term resource needs, near-term energy and capacity needs are planned in accordance with the company’s Energy Risk Management Policy and Energy Risk Management Standards. The risk management standards were collaboratively developed in 2002 among Idaho Power, IPUC staff, and interested customers (IPUC Case No. IPC-E-01-16). The Energy Risk Management Policy and Energy Risk Management Standards provide guidelines for Idaho Power’s physical and financial hedging, and are designed to systematically identify, quantify, and manage the exposure of the company and its customers to uncertainties related to the energy markets in which Idaho Power is an active participant. The Energy Risk Management Policy and Energy Risk Management Standards specify an 18-month load and resource review period, and Idaho Power’s Risk Management Committee assesses the resulting operations plan monthly. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Idaho Power’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels have historically been well below the national average for the 100-largest electric utilities in the United States (US), both in terms of CO2 emissions intensity (pounds per megawatt-hour [MWh] generation) and total CO2 emissions (tons) (see figures 1.1 and 1.2). The overall declining trends in terms of both CO2 emissions intensity and total CO2 emissions demonstrates Idaho Power’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions. The Preferred Portfolio was selected in part to further the company’s pathway to reduced emissions. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company Page 12 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 1.1 Estimated Idaho Power CO2 emissions intensity Figure 1.2 Estimated Idaho Power CO2 emissions CO2 Emissions Reduction Idaho Power is committed to reducing the amount of CO2 emitted from energy-generating sources. Since 2009, the company has met various voluntary goals, initiated by shareholders, to realize its commitment to CO2 reduction. As of 2018, Idaho Power’s carbon emissions intensity, expressed as pounds of CO2 per MWh generated, has decreased by 46 percent compared to 2005 levels. Our current goal is to ensure the average CO2 emissions intensity of our energy sources from 2010 to 2020 is 15- to 20-percent lower than 2005 levels. Generation and emissions from company-owned resources are included in the CO2 emissions intensity calculation. Idaho Power’s progress toward achieving this intensity reduction goal and additional information on Idaho Power’s CO2 emissions are reported on the company’s website. 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 CO 2 In t e n s i t y ( L b / M W h ) 46% 2005 level 2018 level - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 CO 2 Em i s s i o n s ( t o n s ) Idaho Power Company 1. Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 13 Information related to Idaho Power’s CO2 emissions, voluntarily reported annually, is also available through the Carbon Disclosure Project at cdp.net. The portfolio analysis performed for the 2019 IRP assumes carbon emissions are subject to a per-ton cost of carbon. The carbon cost forecasts are provided in Chapter 8, while the projected CO2 emissions for each analyzed resource portfolio are provided in Chapter 9. Idaho Power Clean Energy Goal— Clean Today. Cleaner Tomorrow.™ In March 2019, Idaho Power announced a goal to provide 100 percent clean energy by 2045. This goal furthers Idaho Power’s legacy of being a leader in clean energy. Key to achieving this goal of 100 percent clean energy is the company’s existing backbone of nearly 50 percent hydropower generation, as well as the plan contained in the Preferred Portfolio to continue reducing carbon emissions by ending reliance on coal plants by year-end 2030. In addition, Idaho Power is expanding its portfolio of renewables, having reached an agreement to buy 120 megawatts (MW) of solar power from a private developer; this agreement was approved by the IPUC in December 2019. The Preferred Portfolio identified in this Second Amended 2019 IRP reflects a mix of generation and transmission resources that ensures reliable, affordable energy using technologies available today. Achieving our clean-energy goal, however, will require technological advances and reductions in cost, as well as a continued focus on energy efficiency and demand-response programs. As it has over the past decade, the IRPAC will continue to play a fundamental role in updating the IRP every two years, including analyzing new and evolving technologies to help the company on its path toward a cleaner tomorrow while providing low-cost, reliable energy to our customers. Portfolio Analysis Summary Using the AURORA Long-Term Capacity Expansion (LTCE) model, Idaho Power produced 24 different potential resource portfolios using a combination of three natural gas price forecasts and four cost of carbon forecasts all under two futures—one with B2H and one without. The 24 portfolios include an increase in the types of resource additions and a wider range of quantities of those resources compared to the 2017 IRP. Further, the 24 portfolios considered in the Second Amended 2019 IRP include a broader range of resource types, as well as more varied amounts of nameplate generation additions: • Wind (between 0 and 1,200 MW) • Solar (between 200 and 1,170 MW) • Natural Gas Reciprocating Engines (between 0 and 333 MW) • Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbine (CCCT) (between 0 and 900 MW) • Natural Gas Simple-Cycle Combustion Turbine (SCCT) (between 0 and 170 MW) • Pumped Hydro Storage (between 0 and 500 MW) 1. Summary Idaho Power Company Page 14 Second Amended 2019 IRP • Nuclear (between 0 and 180 MW) • Biomass (between 0 and 210 MW) • Geothermal (between 0 and 30 MW) • Demand response (between 0 and 50 MW) • Battery storage (between 50 and 100 MW) • Accelerated Jim Bridger Coal unit retirements (between 0 and 708 MW) • Accelerated North Valmy Unit 2 exit (133 MW) The diversity of resource mixes in the 24 portfolios is an important result from the LTCE. Each portfolio is built using the various natural gas and carbon scenarios within an optimized Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) LTCE, illustrating the many combinations of resources that could result in a reliable system for customers at varying costs. The portfolios are also evaluated based on an assessment of the likelihood of the various natural gas prices, carbon prices, and B2H futures. The planning case futures represent Idaho Power’s assessment of the mostly likely future forecasts of the primary known variables. Analyzing a range of possible futures also allows Idaho Power to identify the cost sensitivity of various resource mixes to alternative future scenarios that helps inform the company’s 20-year plan. Identifying and focusing on common near-term resource elements that appear in multiple futures, or identifying futures with a low likelihood, but high costs is a pragmatic way to assess resource choices. Based on the outcome of the additional modeling resulting from the IRP Review (outlined in the Executive Summary and described in detail in Chapter 9), Scenario 1 under Planning Gas-Planning Carbon and B2H conditions (Portfolio PGPC-B2H1) proved to be optimal in the Second Amended 2019 IRP. This Preferred Portfolio was derived from a combination of the AURORA LTCE-produced Portfolio 13 and Portfolio 14, with additional manual adjustments to ensure the portfolio reflected a least-cost, least-risk future specifically for Idaho Power and its customers. The manual adjustment process is discussed in more detail in Chapter 9 and the Manually Built Portfolios section in Chapter 8. Table 1.1 shows the resource additions and coal exits that characterize the Preferred Portfolio over the 20-year planning period: Idaho Power Company 1. Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 15 Table 1.1 Preferred Portfolio additions and coal exits (MW) Gas Solar Battery Demand Response Coal Exit 2019 -127 (Valmy) 2020 -58 (Boardman) 2021 2022 120 -177, -133 (Bridger, Valmy*) 2023 2024 2025 2026 -180 (Bridger) 2027 2028 -174 (Bridger) 2029 2030 40 30 5 -177 (Bridger) 2031 300 5 2032 5 2033 5 2034 40 20 5 2035 80 20 5 2036 120 10 5 2037 55.5 5 2038 55.5 5 Nameplate Total 411 400 80 45 -1026 B2H (2026) 500 * Idaho Power identified the potential for additional savings from a Valmy Unit 2 exit date as early as 2022. Further analysis must be conducted to determine optimal exit timing that weighs economics and system reliability, and ensures adequate capacity. Valmy Unit 2 is discussed in detail in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section later in this chapter. Comparison to Prior 2019 IRP Preferred Portfolios The selected Preferred Portfolio of this Second Amended 2019 IRP is very similar to the Preferred Portfolios associated with the Amended 2019 IRP and the original 2019 IRP. Consistent with the Amended 2019 IRP, the Preferred Portfolio of this Second Amended 2019 IRP continues the company’s transition away from coal and shows a full exit from all coal power plants by the end of 2030. Additionally, B2H was selected in this and prior Preferred Portfolios. Additional information about Valmy and Bridger exits, as well as an update on B2H partnership discussions, can be found below. Total battery storage and gas additions remain the same as in the Amended 2019 IRP. Additional sensitivities were conducted around gas additions to determine if reciprocating engines could 1. Summary Idaho Power Company Page 16 Second Amended 2019 IRP serve as a more cost-effective and reliable solution. Results of the sensitivities showed optimal reciprocating engine additions in the final two years of the modeling period. While this and prior Preferred Portfolios show adoption of natural gas resources, Idaho Power views these additions as placeholders for lower-emission resources that may become cost effective in the coming years as technological advancements occur. Idaho Power will conduct a thorough modeling examination of flexible resources, as they become cost-effective, that would provide similar reliability and dispatchability as natural gas, but without the carbon footprint. One adjustment to this Preferred Portfolio is the replacement of wind and solar resources in the outer years of the model time horizon in favor of demand response and adjusted transmission capacity. Wind adoption drops from 300 MW in the Amended 2019 to 0 MW in this Preferred Portfolio. Solar, meanwhile, drops from 1,160 MW to 400 MW in this Preferred Portfolio. While these reductions may seem like fundamental differences across Preferred Portfolios, it is important to consider Idaho Power’s existing system (including a significant volume of purchased renewable energy under long-term purchase agreements), as well as other planned resources, which greatly reduce renewables’ contribution to Idaho Power’s peak in the late 2030s. As an example, the last 40 MW of solar added in the Amended 2019 IRP had a peak contribution of less than 3 MW. A combination of an expansion in demand response and a transmission capacity adjustment of approximately 50 MW resulted in a lower resource requirement. The last notable difference between the Second Amended 2019 IRP and the Amended 2019 IRP is an additional 15 MW of demand response, which brings the total amount of expanded demand response to 45 MW. More details about the Preferred Portfolio and resource additions and exits can be found in Chapter 10. Action Plan (2020–2026) The action plan for the Second Amended 2019 IRP reflects near-term actionable items of the Preferred Portfolio. The action plan identifies key milestones to successfully position Idaho Power to provide reliable, economic, and environmentally sound service to our customers into the future. The current regional electric market, regulatory environment, pace of technological change and Idaho Power’s goal of 100 percent clean energy by 2045 make the 2019 action plan especially germane. The action plan associated with the preferred portfolio is driven by its core resource actions through the mid-2020s. These core resource actions include: • 120 MW of added solar PV capacity (2022) • Exit from three coal-fired generating units by year-end 2022 (including Valmy 1 at year-end 2019), and from five coal-fired generating units (total) by year-end 2026 • B2H on-line in 2026 Idaho Power Company 1. Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 17 The Preferred Portfolio also is characterized by the following attributes: • Optionality • Flexible capacity The action plan is the result of the above resource actions and portfolio attributes, which are discussed in the following sections. Further discussion of the core resource actions and attributes of the Preferred Portfolio is included in Chapter 10. A chronological listing of the plan’s actions follows in Table 1.2. Table 1.2 Action Plan (2020–2026) Year Action 2020–2022 Plan and coordinate with PacifiCorp and regulators for early exits from Jim Bridger units. Target dates for early exits are one unit during 2022 and a second unit during 2026. Timing of exit from second unit coincides with the need for a resource addition. 2020-2022 Incorporate solar hosting capacity into the customer-owned generation forecasts for the 2021 IRP. 2020–2021 Conduct ongoing B2H permitting activities. Negotiate and execute B2H partner construction agreement(s). 2020–2026 Conduct preliminary construction activities, acquire long-lead materials, and construct the B2H project. 2020 Monitor VER variability and system reliability needs, and study projected effects of additions of 120 MW of PV solar (Jackpot Solar) and early exit of Bridger units. 2020 Exit Boardman December 31, 2020. 2020 Bridger Unit 1 and Unit 2 Regional Haze Reassessment finalized. 2020 Conduct a VER Integration Study. 2020–2021 Conduct focused economic and system reliability analysis on timing of exit from Valmy Unit 2. 2021–2022 Continue to evaluate and coordinate with PacifiCorp for timing of exit/closure of remaining Jim Bridger units. 2022 Subject to coordination with PacifiCorp, exit Jim Bridger unit (as yet undesignated) by December 31, 2022. 2022 Jackpot Solar 120 MW on-line December 2022. 2022 Exit Valmy Unit 2 by December 31, 2022.* 2026 Subject to coordination with PacifiCorp, exit Jim Bridger unit (as yet undesignated) by December 31, 2026. Timing of the exit from the second Jim Bridger unit is tied to the need for a resource addition (B2H). Jackpot Solar PPA and the Valmy Unit 1 exit were complete at the time the Second Amended 2019 IRP was filed on October 2, 2020. * Further analysis will be conducted to evaluate the optimal exit date of Valmy Unit 2, weighing exit economics and system reliability concerns. Further discussion of Valmy Unit 2 is provided below. Given the complexities and ongoing-developments related to Valmy Unit 2, Bridger units, and B2H, an update on each is provided below. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company Page 18 Second Amended 2019 IRP Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date The IRP provides a robust method of assessing future resource options over a two-decade timeframe. Although AURORA modeling has consistently showed an economic exit of Valmy Unit 2 in 2025 in WECC-optimized runs, cost analyses specific to Idaho Power suggest the potential for additional savings from earlier exit dates. Exiting Valmy Unit 2 in 2022, rather than 2025, would provide approximately $3 million in NPV savings due to avoided capital investment and net O&M reductions. However, potential savings based on a long-term analysis should not be the sole consideration. Rather, near-term economic and reliability impacts of an earlier exit must also be evaluated using data points such as forward market hub price forecasts, planned unit outages, Idaho Power’s customer risk management processes, and recent market conditions, among other items. The objective of this near-term analysis would be to identify any tradeoffs between an earlier exit date and the ability to provide reliable, affordable power. For these reasons, in the months ahead Idaho Power will conduct further analysis of Valmy Unit 2 exit timing. In particular, the company will assess the feasibility of a 2022 exit, which would require 15 months of advance notice to the plant operator (i.e. a decision prior to September 30, 2021). The analysis will consider customer reliability, more current operating budgets and economics to inform a decision that will minimize costs for customers while ensuring Idaho Power can maintain system reliability. As noted in the 2017 IRP, Idaho Power will also need to explore whether a long-term firm purchase of transmission and energy in the South can adequately replace any deficit caused by an earlier Valmy Unit 2 closure. Idaho Power may need to ensure availability by issuing a request for proposal for a long-term purchase. Absent such long-term purchase, it may not be feasible to exit the unit prior to the completion of B2H. Bridger Unit Exit Dates Idaho Power identified early Bridger unit exits in 2022, 2026, 2028, and 2030. The 2022 and 2026 exits will be Bridger Unit 1 and Bridger Unit 2, with the exit order to be determined. The 2028 and 2030 exits will be Bridger Unit 3 and Bridger Unit 4, with the order also to be determined. Idaho Power owns one-third of each Bridger unit, and PacifiCorp owns two-thirds of each Bridger unit and is the Bridger plant operator. In its 2019 IRP, PacifiCorp identified different exit dates for each Bridger unit, with the first unit being exited in 2023, one year after Idaho Power’s identified first unit exit date. Idaho Power and PacifiCorp have not developed contractual terms that would be necessary to allow for the potential earlier exit of a Bridger unit by one party, and not both parties. Any new contractual terms may impact the costs and assumptions built into Idaho Power’s resource planning, and therefore the specific timing of exits identified in this IRP. Boardman to Hemingway Participant Update The B2H permitting project’s co-participants are Idaho Power, BPA, and PacifiCorp. To date, the co-participants’ contemplated ownership interests in B2H have generally corresponded with Idaho Power Company 1. Summary Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 19 their capacity needs, and with the current allocation of permitting costs borne by each co-participant as follows: Idaho Power: 21 percent, BPA: 24 percent, and PacifiCorp: 55 percent. However, the B2H co-participants are exploring an alternative asset, service, and ownership arrangement under which Idaho Power would assume BPA’s contemplated 24 percent ownership share in B2H, and Idaho Power would provide BPA and/or its customers with transmission wheeling service across southern Idaho. As part of the terms of the contemplated transmission service agreement, BPA and/or its customers would pay for transmission wheeling under the provisions of Idaho Power’s Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT). Under this arrangement, BPA and/or its customers’ OATT payments would, over time, ensure recovery of Idaho Power’s revenue requirement associated with BPA’s respective usage of B2H. Importantly, the contemplated arrangement will have an immaterial impact on Idaho Power’s analysis of B2H in this Second Amended IRP. While Idaho Power’s formal ownership interest and share of the cost of B2H would increase, the company’s original 21 percent ownership share would continue to reflect the company’s approximate share of the costs for B2H used to serve Idaho Power’s retail customers. The company’s assumption of BPA’s contemplated 24 percent ownership would be offset by the transmission wheeling service to BPA and/or its customers. Thus, Idaho Power’s share of the financial responsibility for B2H, as analyzed in this Second Amended IRP, would remain unchanged. As a result, the Second Amended IRP’s use of a 21 percent ownership share for purposes of the IRP’s least-cost, least risk analysis is still appropriate. Moreover, the contemplated arrangement would provide a number of benefits to Idaho Power’s customers that they would not realize under the original approach, including: • Ownership will be consolidated, simplifying design, construction, and operations. This will reduce project costs. In particular, each owner has certain design standards. A consolidation simplifies coordination and construction activities. • Without a federal owner, local property taxes will increase and provide additional value to the communities along the line-route. If Idaho Power determines that its customers will experience additional economic or other benefits by virtue of owning 45 percent of B2H, the company will evaluate these net benefits in future resource planning exercises. As of the filing of this Second Amended IRP, regular discussions among the co-participants are ongoing; however, no definitive agreements have been reached. The reason for the extended time for deliberation is the complexity of the arrangement as it pertains to potential asset swaps, legacy contracts, and extensive transmission planning studies. Idaho Power continues to believe that B2H is the best path for its customers and looks forward to sharing additional specific terms of arrangements with the parties as soon as possible. Idaho Power’s 21 percent share, as modeled in this Second Amended IRP, remains the best and most up-to-date information for use in the IRP process. 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Idaho Power Company Page 20 Second Amended 2019 IRP 2. POLITICAL, REGULATORY, AND OPERATIONAL ISSUES Idaho Strategic Energy Alliance Under the umbrella of the Idaho Governor’s Office of Energy and Mineral Resources (OEMR), the Idaho Strategic Energy Alliance (ISEA) was established to help develop effective and long-lasting responses to existing and future energy challenges. The purpose of the ISEA is to enable the development of a sound energy portfolio that emphasizes the importance of an affordable, reliable, and secure energy supply. The ISEA strategy to accomplish this purpose rests on three foundational elements: 1) maintaining and enhancing a stable, secure, and affordable energy system; 2) determining how to maximize the economic value of Idaho’s energy systems and in-state capabilities, including attracting jobs and energy-related industries, and creating new businesses with the potential to serve local, regional, and global markets; and 3) educating Idahoans to increase their knowledge about energy and energy issues. Idaho Power representatives serve on the ISEA Board of Directors and several volunteer task forces on the following topics: • Energy efficiency and conservation • Wind • Geothermal • Hydropower • Baseload resources • Biogas • Biofuel • Solar • Transmission • Communication and outreach • Energy storage • Transportation Idaho Energy Landscape In 2019, the ISEA prepared the 2019 Idaho Energy Landscape Report. The 2019 report is a resource to help Idahoans better understand the contemporary energy landscape in the state and to make informed decisions about Idaho’s energy future. The 2019 Idaho Energy Landscape Report concludes the health of Idaho’s economy and quality of life depend on access to affordable and reliable energy resources. The report provides information about energy resources, production, distribution, and use in the state. The report also discusses the need for reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy for individuals, families, and businesses while protecting the environment to achieve sustainable economic growth and maintain Idaho’s quality of life. The 2019 report finds a weakening correlation between economic growth and energy consumption due to technological changes and the increased use of energy efficiency. Idaho’s gross domestic product grew 4.7 percent annually from 1997 to 2017, yet Idaho’s energy Idaho Power Company 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 21 consumption (transportation, heat, light, and power) grew just 1.1 percent annually from 1990 to 2016. Despite the modest growth in energy consumption, Idaho continues to be a net importer of energy, which requires a robust and well-maintained infrastructure of highways, railroads, pipelines, and transmission lines. Based on Idaho’s 2016 electricity energy sources, approximately 32 percent was comprised of market purchases and energy imports from out-of-state generating resources owned by Idaho utilities. The report states that low average rates for electricity and natural gas are the most important feature of Idaho’s energy outlook. Large hydroelectric facilities on the Snake River and other tributaries of the Columbia River provide energy and flexibility required to meet the demands of this growing region. Based on 2017 data, hydroelectricity and coal are the two largest sources of Idaho’s electricity, comprising 53 and 17 percent, respectively. Natural gas makes up 14 percent, and non-hydro renewables, principally wind power, solar, geothermal, and biomass, account for approximately 14 percent. Idaho’s electricity rates were the fifth lowest among the 50 states in 2017. State of Oregon 2018 Biennial Energy Report In 2017, the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) introduced House Bill (HB) 2343, which charges the ODOE to develop a new biennial report to inform local, state, regional, and federal energy policy development and energy planning and investments. The inaugural 2018 biennial report provides foundational energy data about Oregon and examines the existing policy landscape while identifying several options for continued progress toward meeting the state’s goals in the areas of climate change, renewable energy, transportation, energy resilience, energy efficiency, and consumer protection. The biennial report shows an evolving energy supply in Oregon. While Oregon’s 2017 energy supply consisted primarily of hydroelectric power, coal, and natural gas, renewable energy continues to make up an increasing share of the energy mix each year. Wind energy consumed in Oregon increased 741 percent between 2004 and 2016, and solar generation increased from 28 MWh in 2008 to 266,000 MWh in 2016. With the increase in renewable energy sources, other resources in the electricity mix have changed as well. The amount of coal included in Oregon’s resource mix has dropped since 2005. Natural gas, a resource that can help to integrate variable renewable resources, like wind and solar, into the grid has increased from 12.1 percent in 2012 to 18.4 percent in 2016. The main theme of the 2018 biennial report was Oregon’s transition to a low-carbon economy. According to the report, achieving Oregon’s energy and climate goals, while protecting consumers, will take collaboration among state agencies, policy makers, state and local governments, and private-sector business and industry leaders. 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Idaho Power Company Page 22 Second Amended 2019 IRP FERC Relicensing Like other utilities that operate non-federal hydroelectric projects on qualified waterways, Idaho Power obtains licenses from FERC for its hydroelectric projects. The licenses last for 30 to 50 years, depending on the size, complexity, and cost of the project. Idaho Power’s remaining and most significant ongoing relicensing effort is for the Hells Canyon Complex (HCC). The HCC provides approximately 68 percent of Idaho Power’s hydroelectric generating capacity and 32 percent of the company’s total generating capacity. The original license for the HCC expired in July 2005. Until the new, multi-year license is issued, Idaho Power continues to operate the project under annual licenses issued by FERC. The HCC provides clean energy to Idaho Power’s system, supporting Idaho Power’s long-term clean energy goals. The HCC also provides flexible capacity critical to the successful integration of VER, further enabling the achievement of Idaho Power’s clean energy goals. The HCC license application was filed in July 2003 and accepted by FERC for filing in December 2003. FERC has been processing the application consistent with the requirements of the Federal Power Act of 1920, as amended (FPA); the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, as amended (NEPA); the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA); the Clean Water Act of 1972 (CWA); and other applicable federal laws. Since issuance of the final environmental impact statement (EIS) (NEPA document) in 2007, FERC has been waiting for Idaho and Oregon to issue a final Section 401 certification under the CWA. The states issued the final CWA 401 certification, subject to appeal, on May 24, 2019. FERC will now be able to continue with the relicensing process, which includes consultation under the ESA, among other actions. Efforts to obtain a new multi-year license for the HCC are expected to continue until a new license is issued, which Idaho Power estimates will occur no earlier than 2022. In December 2017, Idaho Power filed with the IPUC a settlement stipulation signed by Idaho Power, IPUC staff, and a third-party intervenor recognizing a total of $216.5 million in expenditures had been reasonably incurred through year-end 2015, and therefore, should be eligible for inclusion in customer rates at a later date. The IPUC approved the settlement in April 2018 (IPUC Order No. 34031). After a new multi-year license is issued, further costs will be incurred to comply with the terms of the new license. Because the new license for the HCC has not been issued and discussions on protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) packages are still being conducted, Idaho Power cannot determine the ultimate terms of, and costs associated with, any resulting long-term license. Hells Canyon Dam Idaho Power Company 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 23 Relicensing activities include the following: 1. Coordinating the relicensing process 2. Consulting with regulatory agencies, tribes, and interested parties on resource and legal matters 3. Preparing and conducting studies on fish, wildlife, recreation, archaeological resources, historical flow patterns, reservoir operation and load shaping, forebay and river sedimentation, and reservoir contours and volumes 4. Analyzing data and reporting study results 5. Preparing all necessary reports, exhibits, and filings to support ongoing regulatory processes related to the relicensing effort Failure to relicense any of the existing hydroelectric projects at a reasonable cost will create upward pressure on the electric rates of Idaho Power customers. The relicensing process also has the potential to decrease available capacity and increase the cost of a project’s generation through additional operating constraints and requirements for environmental PM&E measures imposed as a condition of relicensing. Idaho Power’s goal throughout the relicensing process is to maintain the low cost of generation at the hydroelectric facilities while implementing non-power measures designed to protect and enhance the river environment. As noted earlier, Idaho Power views the relicensing of the HCC as critical to its clean energy goals. No reduction of the available capacity or operational flexibility of the hydroelectric plants to be relicensed has been assumed in the 2019 IRP. Idaho Water Issues Power generation at Idaho Power’s hydroelectric projects on the Snake River and its tributaries is dependent on the State water rights held by the company for these projects. The long-term sustainability of the Snake River Basin streamflows, including tributary spring flows and the regional aquifer system, is crucial for Idaho Power to maintain generation from these projects. Idaho Power is dedicated to the vigorous defense of its water rights. Idaho Power’s ongoing participation in water-right issues and ongoing studies is intended to guarantee sufficient water is available for use at the company’s hydroelectric projects on the Snake River. Idaho Power, along with other Snake River Basin water-right holders, was engaged in the Snake River Basin Adjudication (SRBA), a general streamflow adjudication process started in 1987 to define the nature and extent of water rights in the Snake River Basin. The initiation of the SRBA resulted from the Swan Falls Agreement entered into by Idaho Power and the governor and attorney general of the State of Idaho in October 1984. Idaho Power filed claims for all its hydroelectric water rights in the SRBA. Because of the SRBA, Idaho Power’s water rights were adjudicated, resulting in the issuance of partial water-right decrees. The Final Unified Decree for the SRBA was signed on August 25, 2014. In 1984, the Swan Falls Agreement resolved a struggle between the State of Idaho and Idaho Power over the company’s water rights at the Swan Falls Hydroelectric Project (Swan Falls 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Idaho Power Company Page 24 Second Amended 2019 IRP Project). The agreement stated Idaho Power’s water rights at its hydroelectric facilities between Milner Dam and Swan Falls entitled Idaho Power to a minimum flow at Swan Falls of 3,900 cubic feet per second (cfs) during the irrigation season and 5,600 cfs during the non-irrigation season. The Swan Falls Agreement placed the portion of the company’s water rights beyond the minimum flows in a trust established by the Idaho Legislature for the benefit of Idaho Power and Idahoans. Legislation establishing the trust granted the state authority to allocate trust water to future beneficial uses in accordance with state law. Idaho Power retained the right to use water in excess of the minimum flows at its facilities for hydroelectric generation until it was reallocated to other uses. Idaho Power filed suit in the SRBA in 2007 because of disputes about the meaning and application of the Swan Falls Agreement. The company asked the court to resolve issues associated with Idaho Power’s water rights and the application and effect of the trust provisions of the Swan Falls Agreement. In addition, Idaho Power asked the court to determine whether the agreement subordinated Idaho Power’s hydroelectric water rights to aquifer recharge. A settlement signed in 2009 reaffirmed the Swan Falls Agreement and resolved the litigation by clarifying the water rights held in trust by the State of Idaho are subject to subordination to future upstream beneficial uses, including aquifer recharge. The settlement also committed the State of Idaho and Idaho Power to further discussions on important water-management issues concerning the Swan Falls Agreement and the management of water in the Snake River Basin. Idaho Power and the State of Idaho are actively involved in those discussions. The settlement recognizes water-management measures that enhance aquifer levels, springs, and river flows—such as managed aquifer-recharge projects—to benefit agricultural development and hydroelectric generation. Idaho Power initiated and pursued a successful weather modification program in the Snake River Basin. The company partnered with an existing program in the upper Snake River Basin and has cooperatively expanded the existing weather-modification program, along with forecasting and meteorological data support. In 2014, Idaho Power expanded its cloud-seeding program to the Boise and Wood River basins, in collaboration with basin water users and the Idaho Water Resource Board (IWRB). Wood River cloud seeding, along with the upper Snake River activities, will benefit the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer (ESPA) Comprehensive Aquifer Management Plan (CAMP) implementation through additional water supply. Water-management activities for the ESPA are currently being driven by the recent agreement between the Surface Water Coalition and the Idaho Ground Water Appropriators. This agreement settled a call by the Surface Water Coalition against groundwater appropriators for the delivery of water to its members at the Minidoka and Milner dams. The agreement provides a plan for the management of groundwater resources on the ESPA with the goal of improving aquifer levels and spring discharge upstream of Milner Dam. The plan provides short- and long-term aquifer level goals that must be met to ensure a sufficient water supply for the Surface Water Coalition. The plan also references ongoing management activities, such as aquifer recharge. The plan provided the framework for modeling future management activities on the ESPA. These management activities were included in the modeling to develop the flow file for assessing hydropower production through the IRP planning horizon. Idaho Power Company 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 25 On November 4, 2016, Idaho Department of Water Resources (IDWR) Director Gary Spackman signed an order creating a Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) for the ESPA. Spackman told the Idaho Water Users Association at their November 2016 Water Law Seminar: By designating a groundwater management area in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer region, we bring all of the water users into the fold—cities, water districts and others—who may be affecting aquifer levels through their consumptive use. […] As we’ve continued to collect and analyze water data through the years, we don’t see recovery happening in the ESPA. We’re losing 200,000 acre-feet of water per year. Spackman said creating a GWMA will embrace the terms of a historic water settlement between the Surface Water Coalition and groundwater users, but the GWMA for the ESPA will also seek to bring other water users under management who have not joined a groundwater district, including some cities. Variable Energy Resource Integration Since the mid-2000s, Idaho Power has completed multiple studies investigating the impacts and costs associated with integrating VERs, such as wind and solar, without compromising reliability. Idaho Power’s most recent VER study was completed in 2018. As suggested by feedback from the 2017 IRP, as well as the results of Idaho Power’s 2018 Variable Energy Resource Integration Analysis (2018 VER Study), several improvements were incorporated into AURORA and the resource portfolio analysis of the 2019 IRP to model the adequate maintenance of reserve margins as resources are added or removed in the IRP portfolios. In compliance with Order Nos. 17-075 and 17-223 in Oregon Docket No. UM 1793, Idaho Power filed the 2018 VER Study, which described the methods followed by Idaho Power to estimate the amounts of regulating reserves necessary to integrate VER without compromising system reliability. The methods followed in the 2018 VER Study (which were developed in collaboration with the study’s technical review committee, including personnel from both the Idaho and Oregon PUCs) yielded estimated regulating reserve requirements necessary to balance the netted system of load, wind, and solar (net load). The 2018 VER Study expressed these regulating reserve requirements as the dynamically varying function of several factors: • Season (spring, summer, fall, winter) • Load-base schedule (two-hour ahead schedule) • Time of day (for load) • Wind-base schedule • Solar-base schedule The regulating reserve requirements necessary to balance net load for a given hour can be expressed as dependent on the above five factors. The derivation of the regulating reserve requirements from a net-load perspective captures the tendency of the three elements (i.e., load, wind, and solar) to deviate from their respective base schedules in an offsetting manner. 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Idaho Power Company Page 26 Second Amended 2019 IRP Therefore, the amount of regulating reserve required for net load is less than the sum of the individual requirements for each element. The 2018 VER Study suggested a unified VER integration analysis may be a favored approach for assessing impacts and costs for incremental wind and solar additions going forward. The 2018 VER Study also notes that Idaho Power’s system is nearing a point where the current system of reserve-providing resources (i.e., dispatchable thermal and hydro resources) can no longer integrate additional VERs without taking additional action to address potential reserve requirement shortfalls. The 2018 VER Study concluded that additional investigation is warranted into the combined effect of wind and solar, in a unified VER integration cost analysis, along with the effects of Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) participation. The 2018 VER Study also identified that, based on the current resources on Idaho Power’s system, 173 MW of additional VERs could be integrated before reserve margin violations exceed 10 percent of the operating hours during the year. The study also concluded that at the high relative penetration levels of variable wind and solar that currently exist on Idaho Power’s system, additional analysis is warranted, and as Idaho Power gains more experience operating as part of the EIM. AURORA modeling used in the 2019 IRP has improved since the 2018 VER Study. The 2019 IRP uses the AURORA model Version 13.2.1001, which incorporates improvements in modeling reserve requirements combined with Idaho Power’s own modeling improvements and assumptions. Specifically, the HCC hydro units can use the hydro logic in AURORA, which allows for spill. The resources dedicated to maintaining the additional reserves incur costs, such as spill, which are captured within the model as increased cost to the portfolio. The model version enhancements allow Idaho Power to include all 12 HCC hydro units as providing reserves in the 2019 IRP LTCE process, which mirrors a more realistic HCC hydro operation. The existing thermal units’ ability to provide reserves is nearly identical to the previous setup, except that Valmy does not provide reserves. The evolution of using the enhanced capabilities in AURORA to define the resource portfolios using the LTCE logic while simultaneously incorporating the VER dynamic reserve rules associated with varying quantities of VERs is a significant advancement in portfolio design at Idaho Power. For the 2019 IRP, integration charges for VERs are not used as an input into the AURORA model because portfolio development for the 2019 IRP is being performed through LTCE modeling. Under this approach, the model’s selection of resources is driven by the objective to construct portfolios that are low cost and achieve the planning margin and regulating reserve requirements. Based on approximations of the 2018 VER Study’s dynamically defined regulating reserve requirements, the 2019 IRP includes hourly regulating reserves associated with current levels of load, wind, and solar, as well as future portfolios having higher levels of load and potentially higher levels of VERs. For the 2019 IRP analysis, the 2018 VER Study provided the rules to define hourly reserves needed to reliably operate the system based on current and future quantities of solar and wind generation and load forecasted by season and time of day. Improvements in Version 13 of the Idaho Power Company 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 27 AURORA model, compared to when the study was performed,3 allow the 2018 VER Study reserve rules to dynamically establish hourly reserves for different quantities of variable resources in a portfolio. The reserves are defined separately, incorporating their combined diversity benefits dynamically in the modeling. The reserve rules applied in the 2019 IRP include defining hourly reserve requirements for “Load Up,” “Load Down,” “Solar Up,” “Solar Down,” and “Wind Up.” The “Wind Down” reserves are included in the “Load Down” reserves, as AURORA cannot dynamically apply the “Wind Down” reserves rules as defined and applied in the study. The 2019 IRP analysis is a step toward a unified VER integration cost analysis as concluded in the 2018 VER Study. While the 2018 VER study provided valuable information regarding the rules for reserve requirements, the modeling performed for the 2019 IRP provides more information on how VERs affect Idaho Power’s system and the ability to maintain sufficient reserves. The 2019 IRP has allowed Idaho Power, via the AURORA model, to quantitatively capture and enforce the hourly flexibility requirements for a portfolio to dynamically change regulating reserves in line with the 2018 VER Study reserve requirement rules. The results of the 2019 IRP portfolio development show that additional VERs are selected in a majority of LTCE portfolios, and many of the portfolios show new solar resources selected and coal units being retired. This indicates the model has sufficient regulating reserves to economically retire a reserve-contributing coal unit while adding new solar resources. Additionally, Idaho Power’s load is forecast to grow through 2022 and 2023, which allows more VERs to be successfully integrated. The additional VERs in the AURORA integrated portfolio analysis dynamically increase the system reserves associated with increased VER energy by applying the 2018 VER Study rules to model reliable system operations. However, when additional incremental VERs are added to the system outside, or between, IRP cycles, there is still a need to identify the incremental cost of maintaining adequate reserves for reliable operations. This will require Idaho Power to continue to build on the advancements made by the 2019 IRP analysis of a unified VER integration cost first identified in the 2018 VER Study. As noted in the near-term action plan, this will be performed in conjunction with the additional experience the company gains from continued operation in the EIM, as well as with the collaboration of a Technical Review Committee as part of an updated integration study. Community Solar Pilot Program Idaho In response to customer interest, in June 2016, Idaho Power filed an application with the IPUC requesting an order authorizing Idaho Power to implement an optional Community Solar Pilot Program. For the pilot program, Idaho Power proposed to build and own a 500-kilowatt (kW) single-axis tracking community solar array in southeast Boise and allow a limited number of Idaho Power’s Idaho customers to voluntarily subscribe to the generation output on a first-come basis. 3 The 2018 VER Study was performed using Version 12.1.1046 of the AURORA model. 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Idaho Power Company Page 28 Second Amended 2019 IRP Participating customers would be required to pay a one-time, upfront subscription fee, and in return would receive a monthly bill credit for their designated share of the energy produced from the array. Because the Idaho Power’s 2015 IRP did not reflect a load-serving need for the proposed solar resource, the overall program design was intended to result in program participants covering the full cost of the project with nominal impact to nonparticipating customers. The IPUC approved the pilot program on October 31, 2016, and marketing efforts for customer subscriptions began immediately. Due to insufficient program enrollment, in February 2019, Idaho Power filed with the IPUC to suspend Schedule 63, Community Solar Pilot Program. The IPUC opened Case No. IPC-E-19-05 to process the request, and on April 26, 2019, issued Order No. 34317 approving the company’s request to suspend Schedule 63. Idaho Power will continue to work with stakeholders to determine a community solar program design that could be successful in a future offering. Oregon In 2016, the Oregon Legislature enacted Senate Bill (SB) 1547, which requires the OPUC to establish a program for the procurement of electricity from community solar projects. Community solar projects provide electric company customers the opportunity to share in the costs and benefits associated with the electricity generated by solar photovoltaic systems, as owners of or subscribers to a portion of the solar project. Since 2016, the OPUC has conducted an inclusive implementation process to carefully design and execute a program that will operate successfully, expand opportunities, and have a fair and positive impact across electric company ratepayers. After an inclusive stakeholder process, the OPUC adopted formal rules for the CSP on June 29, 2017, through Order No. 17-232, which adopted Division 88 of Chapter 860 of the Oregon Administrative Rules. The rules also define the program size, community solar project requirements, program participant requirements, and details surrounding the opportunity for low-income participants, as well as information regarding on-bill crediting. Under the Oregon Community Solar Program rules, Idaho Power’s initial capacity tier is 3.3 MW. As of the date of this filing, Idaho Power has completed the interconnection study process for a 2.95 MW project that intends to participate in the community solar program. The company believes that the project is well positioned to obtain the necessary certifications to participate in the community solar program. The proposed 2.95 MW project will use all but 305 kW of Idaho Power’s initial capacity allocation. Renewable Energy Certificates A REC, also known as a green tag, represents the green or renewable attributes of energy produced by a certified renewable resource. Specifically, a REC represents the renewable attributes associated with the production of 1 MWh of electricity generated by a qualified renewable energy resource, such as a wind turbine, geothermal plant, or solar facility. The purchase of a REC buys the renewable attributes, or “greenness,” of that energy. Idaho Power Company 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 29 A renewable or green energy provider (e.g., a wind farm) is credited with one REC for every 1 MWh of electricity produced. RECs produced by a certified renewable resource can either be sold together with the energy (bundled), sold separately (unbundled), or be retired to comply with a state- or federal-level renewable portfolio standard (RPS). An RPS is a policy requiring a minimum amount (usually a percentage) of the electricity each utility delivers to customers to come from renewable energy resources. Retired RECs also enable the retiring entity to claim the renewable energy attributes of the corresponding amount of energy delivered to customers. A certifying tracking system gives each REC a unique identification number to facilitate tracking purchases, sales, and retirements. The electricity produced by the renewable resource is fed into the electrical grid, and the associated REC can then be used (retired), held (banked), or traded (sold). REC prices depend on many factors, including the following: • The location of the facility producing the RECs • REC supply/demand • Whether the REC is certified for RPS compliance • The generation type associated with the REC (e.g., wind, solar, geothermal) • Whether the RECs are bundled with energy or unbundled When Idaho Power sells RECs, the proceeds are returned to Idaho Power customers through each state’s power cost adjustment (PCA) mechanisms as directed by the IPUC in Order No. 32002 and by the OPUC in Order No. 11-086. Idaho Power cannot claim the renewable attributes associated with RECs that are sold. The new REC owner has purchased the rights to claim the renewable attributes of that energy. Idaho Power customers who choose to purchase renewable energy can do so under Idaho Power’s Green Power Program. Under this program, each dollar of green power purchased represents 100 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of renewable energy delivered to the regional power grid, providing the Green Power Program participant associated claims for the renewable energy. Most of the participant funds are used to purchase RECs from renewable projects in the Northwest and to support Solar 4R Schools, a program designed to educate students about renewable energy by placing solar installations on school property. A portion of the funds are used to market the program, with the prospect of increasing participation in the program. On behalf of program participants, Idaho Power obtains and retires RECs. In 2018, Idaho Power purchased and subsequently retired 18,148 RECs on behalf of Green Power participants. In 2018, all Green Power RECs were sourced from projects located in Idaho. Renewable Portfolio Standard As part of the Oregon Renewable Energy Act of 2007 (Senate Bill 838), the State of Oregon established an RPS for electric utilities and retail electricity suppliers. Under the Oregon RPS, Idaho Power is classified as a smaller utility because the company’s Oregon customers represent 2. Political, Regulatory, and Operational Issues Idaho Power Company Page 30 Second Amended 2019 IRP less than 3 percent of Oregon’s total retail electric sales. In 2017, per U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, Idaho Power’s Oregon customers represented 1.4 percent of Oregon’s total retail electric sales. As a smaller utility in the state of Oregon, Idaho Power will likely have to meet a 5-percent RPS requirement beginning in 2025. In 2016, the Oregon RPS was updated by Senate Bill 1547 to raise the target from 25 percent by 2025 to 50 percent renewable energy by 2040; however, Idaho Power’s obligation as a smaller utility does not change. The State of Idaho does not currently have an RPS. Carbon Adder/Clean Power Plan In June 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released, under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act of 1970 (CAA), a proposed rule for addressing greenhouse gas (GHG) from existing fossil fuel-fired electric generating units (EGU). The proposed rule was intended to achieve a 30-percent reduction in CO2 emissions from the power sector by 2030. In August 2015, the EPA released the final rule under Section 111(d) of the CAA, referred to as the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which required states to adopt plans to collectively reduce 2005 levels of power sector CO2 emissions by 32 percent by 2030. The final rule provided states until September 2018 to submit implementation plans, phasing in several compliance periods beginning in 2022 and achieving the final emissions goals by 2030. In August 2018, the EPA proposed the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule to replace the CPP under Section 111(d) of the CAA for existing electric utility generating units. The new proposed rule is limited to reduction and compliance measures occurring at the physical location of each plant, removing the proposal to require reductions outside the boundaries of plants. The Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule also provides for more state-specific control over implementation of the rule to address GHG emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, with a focus on state evaluation of improvement potential, technical feasibility, applicability, and remaining useful life of each unit. Because the rule is premised on state implementation plans, the terms of which Idaho Power does not control, and due to the existing and potential changes in legislation, regulation, and government policy with respect to environmental matters as a result of the presidential administration's executive orders and the EPA’s proposal to repeal and replace the CPP, as of the date of this report and in light of these executive actions, Idaho Power is uncertain whether and to what extent the replacement CPP may impact its operations in the near future. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power assumes a carbon adder to account for costs associated with CO2 emissions. The analyzed carbon cost forecasts are discussed in Chapter 8. Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 31 3. IDAHO POWER TODAY Customer Load and Growth In 1994, Idaho Power served approximately 329,000 general business customers. In 2019, Idaho Power served more than 560,000 general business customers in Idaho and Oregon. Firm peak-hour load has increased from 2,245 MW in 1994 to about 3,400 MW. On July 7, 2017, the peak-hour load reached 3,422 MW—the system peak-hour record. Average firm load increased from 1,375 average MW (aMW) in 1994 to 1,801 aMW in 2018 (load calculations exclude the load from the former special-contract customer Astaris, or FMC). Additional details of Idaho Power’s historical load and customer data are shown in Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1. The data in Table 3.1 suggests each new customer adds over 5.0 kW to the peak-hour load and over 3.0 average kW (akW) to the average load. Since 1994, Idaho Power’s total nameplate generation has increased from 2,661 MW to 3,594 MW. Table 3.1 shows Idaho Power’s changes in reported nameplate capacity since 1994. Additionally, Idaho Power has added about 228,000 new customers since 1994. Idaho Power anticipates adding approximately 10,900 customers each year throughout the 20-year planning period. The expected-case load forecast for the entire system predicts summer peak-hour load requirements will grow nearly 50 MW per year, and the average-energy requirement is forecast to grow over 20 aMW per year. More detailed customer and load forecast information is presented in Chapter 7 and in Appendix A—Sales and Load Forecast. Residential construction growth in southern Idaho. 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 32 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 3.1 Historical capacity, load, and customer data Table 3.1 Historical capacity, load and customer data Year Total Nameplate Generation (MW) Peak Firm Load (MW) Average Firm Load (aMW) Customers1 1994 2,661 2,245 1,375 329,094 1995 2,703 2,224 1,324 339,450 1996 2,703 2,437 1,438 351,261 1997 2,728 2,352 1,457 361,838 1998 2,738 2,535 1,491 372,464 1999 2,738 2,675 1,552 383,354 2000 2,738 2,765 1,654 393,095 2001 2,851 2,500 1,576 403,061 2002 2,912 2,963 1,623 414,062 2003 2,912 2,944 1,658 425,599 2004 2,912 2,843 1,671 438,912 2005 3,085 2,961 1,661 456,104 2006 3,085 3,084 1,747 470,950 2007 3,093 3,193 1,810 480,523 2008 3,276 3,214 1,816 486,048 2009 3,276 3,031 1,744 488,813 2010 3,276 2,930 1,680 491,368 2011 3,276 2,973 1,712 495,122 2012 3,594 3,245 1,746 500,731 2013 3,594 3,407 1,801 508,051 Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 33 Year Total Nameplate Generation (MW) Peak Firm Load (MW) Average Firm Load (aMW) Customers1 2014 3,594 3,184 1,739 515,262 2015 3,594 3,402 1,748 524,325 2016 3,594 3,299 1,750 533,935 2017 3,594 3,422 1,807 544,378 2018 3,6592 3,392 1,810 556,926 1 Year-end residential, commercial, and industrial customers, plus the maximum number of active irrigation customers. 2 Reported nameplate capacity reflects recent modifications to hydroelectric facilities. 2018 Energy Sources Idaho Power’s energy sources for 2018 are shown in Figure 3.2. Idaho Power-owned generating capacity was the source for 71.4 percent of the energy delivered to customers. Hydroelectric production from company-owned projects was the largest single source of energy at 46.4 percent of the total. Coal contributed 17.5 percent, and natural gas- and diesel-fired generation contributed 7.5 percent. Purchased power comprised 28.6 percent of the total energy delivered to customers. Of the purchased power, 9.3 percent of the total delivered energy was from the wholesale electric market. The remaining purchased power, 19.3 percent, was from long-term energy contracts (Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 [PURPA] and PPAs) primarily from wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass projects (in order of decreasing percentage). While Idaho Power receives production from PURPA and PPA projects, the company sells the RECs it receives associated with the production and does not represent the energy from these projects as energy delivered to customers. Figure 3.2 2018 energy sources Existing Supply-Side Resources Table 3.2 shows all of Idaho Power’s existing company-owned resources, nameplate capacities, and general locations. Hydroelectric, 46.4% Coal, 17.5% Natural Gas & Diesel, 7.5% Purchased Power, 28.6% 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 34 Second Amended 2019 IRP Table 3.2 Existing resources Resource Type Generator Nameplate Capacity (MW) Location American Falls Hydroelectric 92.3 Upper Snake Bliss Hydroelectric 75.0 Mid-Snake Brownlee Hydroelectric 652.6 Hells Canyon C. J. Strike Hydroelectric 82.8 Mid-Snake Cascade Hydroelectric 12.4 North Fork Payette Clear Lake Hydroelectric 2.5 South Central Idaho Hells Canyon Hydroelectric 391.5 Hells Canyon Lower Malad Hydroelectric 13.5 South Central Idaho Lower Salmon Hydroelectric 60.0 Mid-Snake Milner Hydroelectric 59.4 Upper Snake Oxbow Hydroelectric 190.0 Hells Canyon Shoshone Falls Hydroelectric 11.5 Upper Snake Swan Falls Hydroelectric 27.2 Mid-Snake Thousand Springs Hydroelectric 6.8 South Central Idaho Twin Falls Hydroelectric 52.9 Mid-Snake Upper Malad Hydroelectric 8.3 South Central Idaho Upper Salmon A Hydroelectric 18.0 Mid-Snake Upper Salmon B Hydroelectric 16.5 Mid-Snake Boardman Coal 64.2 North Central Oregon Jim Bridger Coal 770.5 Southwest Wyoming North Valmy* Coal 283.5 North Central Nevada Langley Gulch Natural Gas—CCCT 318.5 Southwest Idaho Bennett Mountain Natural Gas—SCCT 172.8 Southwest Idaho Danskin Natural Gas—SCCT 270.9 Southwest Idaho Salmon Diesel Diesel 5.0 Eastern Idaho Total existing nameplate capacity 3,658.6 * North Valmy Unit 1 was exited at the end of 2019. The following sections describe Idaho Power’s existing supply-side resources and long-term power purchase contracts. Hydroelectric Facilities Idaho Power operates 17 hydroelectric projects on the Snake River and its tributaries. Together, these hydroelectric facilities provide a total nameplate capacity of 1,773 MW and annual generation equal to approximately 1,000 aMW, or 8.7 million MWh, under median water conditions. Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 35 Hells Canyon Complex The backbone of Idaho Power’s hydroelectric system is the HCC in the Hells Canyon reach of the Snake River. The HCC consists of Brownlee, Oxbow, and Hells Canyon dams and the associated generation facilities. In a normal water year, the three plants provide approximately 70 percent of Idaho Power’s annual hydroelectric generation and enough energy to meet over 30 percent of the energy demand of retail customers. Water storage in Brownlee Reservoir also enables the HCC projects to provide the major portion of Idaho Power’s peaking and load following capability. Idaho Power operates the HCC to comply with the existing annual FERC license, as well as voluntary arrangements to accommodate other interests, such as recreational use and environmental resources. Among the arrangements are the Fall Chinook Program, voluntarily adopted by Idaho Power in 1991 to protect the spawning and incubation of fall Chinook salmon below Hells Canyon Dam. The fall Chinook salmon is currently listed as threatened under the ESA. Brownlee Reservoir is the main HCC reservoir and Idaho Power’s only reservoir with significant active storage. Brownlee Reservoir has 101 vertical feet of active storage capacity, which equals approximately 1 million acre-feet of water. Both Oxbow and Hells Canyon reservoirs have significantly smaller active storage capacities—approximately 0.5 percent and 1 percent of Brownlee Reservoir’s volume, respectively. Brownlee Reservoir is a year-round, multiple-use resource for Idaho Power and the Pacific Northwest. Although its primary purpose is to provide a stable power source, Brownlee Reservoir is also used for system flood risk management, recreation, and the benefit of fish and wildlife resources. Brownlee Dam is one of several Pacific Northwest dams coordinated to provide springtime flood risk management on the lower Columbia River. Idaho Power operates the reservoir in accordance with flood risk management guidance received from the US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) as outlined in Article 42 of the existing FERC license. After flood risk management requirements have been met in late spring, Idaho Power attempts to refill the reservoir to meet peak summer electricity demands and provide suitable habitat for spawning bass and crappie. The full reservoir also offers optimal recreational opportunities through the Fourth of July holiday. The US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) releases water from USBR storage reservoirs in the Snake River Basin above Brownlee Reservoir to augment flows in the lower Snake River to help anadromous fish migrate past the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) projects. The releases are part of the flow augmentation implemented by the 2008 FCRPS biological opinion. Much of the flow augmentation water travels through Idaho Power’s middle Snake River (mid-Snake) projects, with all the flow augmentation eventually passing through the HCC before reaching the FCRPS projects. Brownlee Reservoir’s releases are managed to maintain operationally stable flows below Hells Canyon Dam in the fall because of the Fall Chinook Program adopted by Idaho Power in 1991. The stable flow is set at a level to protect fall Chinook spawning nests, or redds. During fall 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 36 Second Amended 2019 IRP Chinook operations, Idaho Power attempts to refill Brownlee Reservoir by the first week of December to meet wintertime peak-hour loads. The fall Chinook plan spawning flows establish the minimum flow below Hells Canyon Dam throughout the winter until the fall Chinook fry emerge in the spring. Upper Snake and Mid-Snake Projects Idaho Power’s hydroelectric facilities upstream from the HCC include the Cascade, Swan Falls, C. J. Strike, Bliss, Lower Salmon, Upper Salmon, Upper and Lower Malad, Thousand Springs, Clear Lake, Shoshone Falls, Twin Falls, Milner, and American Falls projects. Although the upstream projects typically follow run-of-river (ROR) operations, a small amount of peaking and load-following capability exists at the Lower Salmon, Bliss, and C. J. Strike projects. These three projects are operated within the FERC license requirements to coincide with daily system peak demand when load-following capacity is available. Idaho Power completed a study to identify the effects of load-following operations at the Lower Salmon and Bliss power plants on the Bliss Rapids snail, a threatened species under the ESA. The study was part of a 2004 settlement agreement with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to relicense the Upper Salmon, Lower Salmon, Bliss, and C. J. Strike hydroelectric projects. During the study, Idaho Power annually alternated operating the Bliss and Lower Salmon facilities under ROR and load-following operations. Study results indicated while load-following operations had the potential to harm individual snails, the operations were not a threat to the viability or long-term persistence of the species. A Bliss Rapids Snail Protection Plan developed in consultation with the FWS was completed in March 2010. The plan identifies appropriate protection measures to be implemented by Idaho Power, including monitoring snail populations in the Snake River and associated springs. By implementing the protection and monitoring measures, the company has been able to operate the Lower Salmon and Bliss projects in load-following mode while protecting the stability and viability of the Bliss Rapids snail. Idaho Power has received a license amendment from FERC for both projects that allows load-following operations to resume. Water Lease Agreements Idaho Power views the rental of water for delivery through its hydroelectric system as a potentially cost-effective power-supply alternative. Water leases that allow the company to request delivery when the hydroelectric production is needed are especially beneficial. Acquiring water through the water bank also helps the company improve water-quality and temperature conditions in the Snake River as part of ongoing relicensing efforts associated with the HCC. The company does not currently have any standing water lease agreements. However, single year leases from the Upper Snake Basin are occasionally available, and the company plans to continue to evaluate potential water lease opportunities in the future. Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 37 Cloud Seeding In 2003, Idaho Power implemented a cloud-seeding program to increase snowpack in the south and middle forks of the Payette River watershed. In 2008, Idaho Power began expanding its program by enhancing an existing program operated by a coalition of counties and other stakeholders in the upper Snake River Basin above Milner Dam. Idaho Power has continued to collaborate with the IWRB and water users in the upper Snake, Boise, and Wood river basins to expand the target area to include those watersheds. Idaho Power seeds clouds by introducing silver iodide (AgI) into winter storms. Cloud seeding increases precipitation from passing winter storm systems. If a storm has abundant supercooled liquid water vapor and appropriate temperatures and winds, conditions are optimal for cloud seeding to increase precipitation. Idaho Power uses two methods to seed clouds: 1. Remotely operated ground generators releasing AgI at high elevations 2. Modified aircraft burning flares containing AgI Benefits of either method vary by storm, and the combination of both methods provides the most flexibility to successfully introduce AgI into passing storms. Minute water particles within the clouds freeze on contact with the AgI particles and eventually grow and fall to the ground as snow downwind. AgI particles are very efficient ice nuclei, allowing minute quantities to have an appreciable increase in precipitation. It has been used as a seeding agent in numerous western states for decades without any known harmful effects.4 Analyses conducted by Idaho Power since 2003 indicate the annual snowpack in the Payette River Basin increased between 1 and 22 percent annually, with an annual average of 11.3 percent. Idaho Power estimates cloud seeding provides an additional 424,000 acre-feet in the upper Snake River, 113,000 acre-feet in the Wood River Basin, 229,000 acre-feet in the Boise Basin, and 212,000 acre-feet from the Payette River Basin. At program build-out (including additional aircraft and remote ground generators), Idaho Power estimates additional runoff from the Payette, Boise, Wood, and Upper Snake projects will total approximately 1,269,000 acre-feet. The additional water from cloud seeding fuels the hydropower system along the Snake River. Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: the Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) was a joint project between National Science Foundation and Idaho Power. Researchers from the Universities of Wyoming, Colorado, and Illinois used Idaho Power’s operational cloud seeding project, meteorological tools, and equipment to identify changes within wintertime precipitation 4 weathermod.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/EnvironmentalImpact.pdf Footnotes continued on the next page. Cloud seeding ground generators 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 38 Second Amended 2019 IRP after seeding has taken place. Ground breaking discoveries continue to be evaluated from this dataset collected in winter 2017. Multiple scientific publications have already been published,5 with more planned for submission about the effects and benefits of cloud seeding. For the 2018 to 2019 winter season, Idaho Power continued to collaborate with the State of Idaho and water users to augment water supplies with cloud seeding. The program included 32 remote controlled, ground-based generators and two aircraft for Idaho Power-operated cloud seeding in the central mountains of Idaho (Payette, Boise, and Wood River basins). The Upper Snake River Basin program included 25 remote-controlled, ground-based generators and one aircraft operated by Idaho Power targeting the Upper Snake, as well as 25 manual, ground-based generators operated by a coalition of stakeholders in the Upper Snake. The 2018 to 2019 season provided abundant storms and seeding opportunities. Suspension criteria were met in some areas in early February, and operations were suspended for the season for all target areas by early March. Coal Facilities Boardman Idaho Power owns 10 percent, or 64.2 MW (generator nameplate rating), of the Boardman coal-fired power plant located near Boardman, Oregon. The plant consists of a single generating unit. Portland General Electric has 90 percent ownership and is the operator of the Boardman facility. The 2019 IRP assumes Idaho Power’s share of the Boardman plant will not be available after December 31, 2020. An agreement reached between the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ), PGE, and the EPA related to compliance with Regional Haze Best Available Retrofit Technology (RH BART) rules on particulate matter, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, requires the Boardman facility to cease coal-fired operations by year-end 2020. Jim Bridger Idaho Power owns one-third, or 771 MW (generator nameplate rating), of the Jim Bridger coal-fired power plant located near Rock Springs, Wyoming. The Jim Bridger plant consists of four generating units. PacifiCorp has two-thirds ownership and is the operator of the Jim Bridger facility. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power used the AURORA model’s capacity expansion capability to evaluate a range of exit dates for the company’s participation in the Jim Bridger units, where the evaluated exit dates were determined by the model within feasibility guidelines. North Valmy Idaho Power currently owns 50 percent, or 284 MW (generator nameplate rating), of the second generating unit at the North Valmy coal-fired power plant located near Winnemucca, Nevada. 5 French, J. R., and Coauthors, 2018: Precipitation formation from orographic cloud seeding. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 1168–1173, doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716995115. Tessendorf, S.A., and Coauthors, 2019: Transformational approach to winter orographic weather modification research: The SNOWIE Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 71–92, journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0152.1. Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 39 The North Valmy plant consisted of two generating units. NV Energy has 50 percent ownership and is the operator of the North Valmy facility. For the AURORA-based capacity expansion modeling performed for the 2019 IRP analysis, Idaho Power captured the exit from Unit 1 participation at year-end 2019 and assumed an exit from Unit 2 participation no later than year-end 2025 and no earlier than year-end 2022. The exit from Unit 1 occurred as planned at year-end 2019. Precise exit timing of Valmy Unit 2 will be examined by Idaho Power in the coming months to determine an optimized exit strategy that considers economics of the exit and the requirement for the provision of affordable, reliable power. See Chapter 1 Summary, section Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date for further discussion of Valmy Unit 2. Natural Gas Facilities and Salmon Diesel Bennett Mountain Idaho Power owns and operates the Bennett Mountain plant, which consists of a 173-MW Siemens–Westinghouse 501F natural gas-fired Simple-Cycle Combustion Turbine (SCCT) located east of the Danskin plant in Mountain Home, Idaho. The Bennett Mountain plant is also dispatched as needed to support system load. Danskin The Danskin facility is located northwest of Mountain Home, Idaho. Idaho Power owns and operates one 179-MW Siemens 501F and two 46-MW Siemens–Westinghouse W251B12A SCCTs at the facility. The two smaller turbines were installed in 2001, and the larger turbine was installed in 2008. Idaho Power is currently evaluating options to repower the two smaller Danskin turbines to improve efficiency and start capability, expand dispatch flexibility, and lower emissions. The Danskin units are dispatched when needed to support system load. Langley Gulch Idaho Power owns and operates the Langley Gulch plant which utilizes a nominal 318-MW natural gas-fired Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbine (CCCT). The plant consists of one 187- MW Siemens STG-5000F4 combustion turbine and one 131.5-MW Siemens SST-700/SST-900 reheat steam turbine. The Langley Gulch plant, located south of New Plymouth in Payette County, Idaho, became commercially available in June 2012. Salmon Diesel Idaho Power owns and operates two diesel generation units in Salmon, Idaho. The Salmon units have a combined generator nameplate rating of 5 MW and are operated during emergency conditions, primarily for voltage and load support. Solar Facilities In 1994, a 25-kW solar PV array with 90 panels was installed on the rooftop of Idaho Power’s corporate headquarters (CHQ) in Boise, Idaho. The 25-kW solar array is still operational, and Idaho Power uses the hourly generation data from the solar array for resource planning. In 2015, Idaho Power installed a 50-kW solar array at its new Twin Falls Operations Center. The array came on-line in October 2016. 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 40 Second Amended 2019 IRP Idaho Power also has solar lights in its parking lot and uses small PV panels in its daily operations to supply power to equipment used for monitoring water quality, measuring streamflows, and operating cloud-seeding equipment. In addition to these solar PV installations, Idaho Power participates in the Solar 4R Schools Program and owns a mobile solar trailer that can be used to supply power for concerts, radio remotes, and other events. Solar End-of-Feeder Project The Solar End-of-Feeder Pilot Project is a small-scale (18 kWAC) proof-of-concept PV system evaluated as a non-wires alternative to traditional methods to mitigate low voltage near the end of a distribution feeder. The purpose of the pilot was to evaluate its operational performance and its cost-effectiveness compared to traditional low-voltage mitigation methods. Traditional methods for mitigating low voltage include the addition of capacitor banks, voltage regulators, or reconductoring. Capacitor banks and voltage regulators are relatively inexpensive solutions compared to reconductoring, but these solutions were not viable options for this location due to distribution feeder topology. The Solar End-of-Feeder Project was installed and has been in operation since October 2016. The project has operated as expected by effectively mitigating low voltage. The Solar End-of-Feeder Pilot Project will continue to be monitored internally. Customer Generation Service Idaho Power’s on-site generation and net metering services allow customers to generate power on their property and connect to Idaho Power’s system. For participating customers, the energy generated is first consumed on the property itself, while excess energy flows out to the company’s grid. Most customers use solar PV systems. As of March 31, 2019, there were 3,595 solar PV systems interconnected through the company’s customer generation tariffs with a total capacity of 30.356 MW. At that time, the company had received completed applications for an additional 436 solar PV systems, representing an incremental capacity of 7.213 MW. For further details regarding customer-owned generation resources interconnected through the company’s on-site generation and net metering services, see tables 3.3 and 3.4. Solar installation as part of the Solar End-of-Feeder Project. Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 41 Table 3.3 Customer generation service customer count as of March 31, 2019 Resource Type Active Pending Total Idaho Total 3,589 429 4,018 Solar PV 3,541 428 3,969 Wind 38 0 38 Other/hydroelectric 10 1 11 Oregon Total 55 8 63 Solar PV 54 8 62 Wind 1 0 1 Other/hydroelectric 0 0 0 Total 3,644 437 4,081 Table 3.4 Customer generation service generation capacity (MW) as of March 31, 2019 Resource Type Active Pending Total Idaho Total 29.533 7.125 36.658 Solar PV 29.189 7.113 36.302 Wind 0.198 0.000 0.198 Other/hydroelectric 0.146 0.012 0.158 Oregon Total 1.170 0.100 1.270 Solar PV 1.167 0.100 1.267 Wind 0.002 0.000 0.002 Other/hydroelectric 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total 30.703 7.225 37.928 Oregon Solar Program In 2009, the Oregon Legislature passed Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 757.365 as amended by HB 3690, which mandated the development of pilot programs for electric utilities operating in Oregon to demonstrate the use and effectiveness of volumetric incentive rates for electricity produced by solar PV systems. As required by the OPUC in Order Nos. 10-200 and 11-089, Idaho Power established the Oregon Solar PV Pilot Program in 2010, offering volumetric incentive rates to customers in Oregon. Under the pilot program, Idaho Power acquired 400 kW of installed capacity from solar PV systems with a nameplate capacity of less than or equal to 10 kW. In July 2010, approximately 200 kW were allocated, and the remaining 200 kW were offered during an enrollment period in October 2011. However, because some PV systems were not completed from the 2011 enrollment, a subsequent offering was held on April 1, 2013, for approximately 80 kW. 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 42 Second Amended 2019 IRP In 2013, the Oregon Legislature passed HB 2893, which increased Idaho Power’s required capacity amount by 55 kW. An enrollment period was held in April 2014, and all capacity was allocated, bringing Idaho Power’s total capacity in the program to 455 kW. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act In 1978, the US congress passed PURPA, requiring investor-owned electric utilities to purchase energy from any qualifying facility (QF) that delivers energy to the utility. A QF is defined by FERC as a small renewable-generation project or small cogeneration project. Cogeneration and small power producers (CSPP) are often associated with PURPA. Individual states were tasked with establishing PPA terms and conditions, including price, that each state’s utilities are required to pay as part of the PURPA agreements. Because Idaho Power operates in Idaho and Oregon, the company must adhere to IPUC rules and regulations for all PURPA facilities located in Idaho, and to OPUC rules and regulations for all PURPA facilities located in Oregon. The rules and regulations are similar but not identical for the two states. Under PURPA, Idaho Power is required to pay for generation at the utility’s avoided cost, which is defined by FERC as the incremental cost to an electric utility of electric energy or capacity which, but for the purchase from the QF, such utility would generate itself or purchase from another source. The process to request an Energy Sales Agreement for Idaho QFs is described in Schedule 73, and for Oregon QFs, Schedule 85. QFs also have the option to sell energy “as-available” under Schedule 86. As of April 1, 2019, Idaho Power had 133 PURPA contracts with independent developers for approximately 1,148 MW of nameplate capacity. These PURPA contracts are for hydroelectric projects, cogeneration projects, wind projects, solar projects, anaerobic digesters, landfill gas, wood-burning facilities, and various other small, renewable-power generation facilities. Of the 133 contracts, 127 were on-line as of April 1, 2019, with a cumulative nameplate rating of approximately 1,119 MW. Figure 3.3 shows the percentage of the total PURPA nameplate capacity of each resource type under contract. Figure 3.3 PURPA contracts by resource type Wind55%Solar28% Hydro13% Biomass3%Cogen/Thermal1% Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 43 Idaho Power cannot predict the level of future PURPA development; therefore, only signed contracts are accounted for in Idaho Power’s resource planning process. Generation from PURPA contracts is forecasted early in the IRP planning process to update the accounting of supply-side resources available to meet load. The PURPA forecast used in the 2019 IRP was completed in October 2018. Detail on signed PURPA contracts, including capacity and contractual delivery dates, is included in Appendix C—Technical Appendix. Non-PURPA Power Purchase Agreements Elkhorn Wind In February 2007, the IPUC approved a PPA with Telocaset Wind Power Partners, LLC, for 101 MW of nameplate wind generation from the Elkhorn Wind Project located in northeastern Oregon. The Elkhorn Wind Project was constructed during 2007 and began commercial operations in December 2007. Under the PPA, Idaho Power receives all the RECs from the project. Idaho Power’s contract with Telocaset Wind Power Partners, LLC, expires December 2027. Raft River Unit 1 In January 2008, the IPUC approved a PPA with Raft River Energy I, LLC, for approximately 13 MW of nameplate generation from the Raft River Geothermal Power Plant Unit 1 located in southern Idaho. The Raft River project began commercial operations in October 2007 under a PURPA contract with Idaho Power that was canceled when the new PPA was approved by the IPUC. Idaho Power is entitled to 51 percent of all RECs generated by the project for the remaining term of the agreement. Idaho Power’s contract with Raft River Energy I, LLC, expires April 2033. Neal Hot Springs In May 2010, the IPUC approved a PPA with USG Oregon, LLC, for approximately 22 MW of nameplate generation from the Neal Hot Springs Unit 1 geothermal project located in eastern Oregon. The Neal Hot Springs Unit 1 project achieved commercial operation in November 2012. Under the PPA, Idaho Power receives all RECs from the project. Idaho Power’s contract with USG Oregon, LLC expires November 2037. Jackpot Solar On March 22, 2019, Idaho Power and Jackpot Holdings, LLC entered a 20-year PPA for the purchase and sale of 120 MW of solar electric generation from the Jackpot Solar facility located north of the Idaho–Nevada state line near Rogerson, Idaho. Under the terms of the PPA, Idaho Power will receive all RECs from the project. Jackpot Solar is scheduled to be on-line December 2022. An application was submitted to the IPUC on April 4, 2019, requesting an order that approves the PPA and on December 24, 2019, the IPUC issued Order No. 34515 approving the Jackpot Solar PPA. On the same day as the IPUC application, Idaho Power submitted a notice to the OPUC, in accordance with OAR 860-089-100(3) and (4), of an exception from Oregon’s competitive-bidding requirements for electric utilities as the PPA with Jackpot Holdings, LLC presents a time-limited opportunity to acquire a resource of unique value to Idaho Power 3. Idaho Power Today Idaho Power Company Page 44 Second Amended 2019 IRP customers. On December 24, 2019, the IPUC issued Order No. 34515 approving the PPA with Jackpot Holdings, LLC. Clatskanie Energy Exchange In September 2009, Idaho Power and the Clatskanie People’s Utility District (Clatskanie PUD) in Oregon entered into an energy exchange agreement. Under the agreement, Idaho Power receives the energy as it is generated from the 18-MW power plant at Arrowrock Dam on the Boise River; in exchange, Idaho Power provides the Clatskanie PUD energy of an equivalent value delivered seasonally, primarily during months when Idaho Power expects to have surplus energy. An energy bank account is maintained to ensure a balanced exchange between the parties where the energy value will be determined using the Mid-Columbia market price index. The Arrowrock project began generating in January 2010, with the initial exchange agreement with Idaho Power ending in 2015. At the end of the initial term, Idaho Power exercised its right to extend the agreement through 2020. Idaho Power holds one more option to extend through 2025, exercisable in 2020. The Arrowrock project is expected to produce approximately 81,000 MWh annually. Wholesale Contracts Idaho Power currently has no long-term wholesale energy contracts (no long-term wholesale sales contracts and no long-term wholesale purchase contracts). Power Market Purchases and Sales Idaho Power relies on regional power markets to supply a significant portion of energy and capacity needs during certain times of the year. Idaho Power is especially dependent on the regional power market purchases during peak-load periods. The existing transmission system is used to import the power purchases. A reliance on regional power markets has benefited Idaho Power customers during times of low prices through the import of low-cost energy. Customers also benefit from sales revenues associated with surplus energy from economically dispatched resources. Transmission MW Import Rights Idaho Power’s interconnected transmission system facilitates market purchases to access resources to serve load. Five transmission paths connect Idaho Power to neighboring utilities: 1. Idaho–Northwest (Path 14) 2. Idaho–Nevada (Path 16) 3. Idaho–Montana (Path 18) 4. Idaho–Wyoming (Path 19) 5. Idaho–Utah (Path 20). Idaho Power’s interconnected transmission facilities were all jointly developed with other entities and act to meet the needs of the interconnecting participants. Idaho Power owns various amounts of capacity across each transmission path; the paths and their associated capacity are Idaho Power Company 3. Idaho Power Today Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 45 further described in Chapter 6. Idaho Power reserves portions of its transmission capacity to import energy for load service (network set-aside); this set-aside capacity along with existing contractual obligations consumes nearly all of Idaho Power’s import capacity on all paths (see Table 6.1 in Chapter 6). 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Idaho Power Company Page 46 Second Amended 2019 IRP 4. FUTURE SUPPLY-SIDE GENERATION AND STORAGE RESOURCES Generation Resources Supply-side generation resources include traditional generation resources, renewable resources, and storage resources. Idaho Power gives equal treatment to both supply-side and demand-side resources. As discussed in Chapter 5, demand-side programs are an essential and valuable component of Idaho Power’s resource strategy. The following sections describe the supply-side resources and energy-storage technologies considered when Idaho Power developed and analyzed the resource portfolios for the 2019 IRP. Not all supply-side resources described in this section were included in the modeling, but every resource described was considered. The primary source of cost information for the 2019 IRP is the 2018 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) report released by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in July 2018.6 Other information sources were relied on or considered on a case-by-case basis depending on the credibility of the source and the recency of the information. For a full list of all the resources considered and cost information, refer to Chapter 7. All cost information presented are in nominal dollars with an on-line date of 2023 for all levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculations. Provided levelized cost figures are based on Idaho Power’s cost of capital and may differ from other reported levelized costs. Renewable Resources Renewable energy resources serve as the foundation of Idaho Power’s existing portfolio. The company emphasizes a long and successful history of prudent renewable resource development and operation, particularly as related to its fleet of hydroelectric generators. In the 2019 IRP, a variety of renewable resources were included in many of the portfolios analyzed. Renewable resources are discussed in general terms in the following sections. Solar The primary types of solar generation technology are utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) and distributed PV. In general, PV technology absorbs solar energy collected from sunlight shining on panels of solar cells, and a percentage of the solar energy is absorbed into the semiconductor material. The energy accumulated inside the semiconductor material creates an electric current. The solar cells have one or more electric fields that force electrons to flow in one direction as a direct current (DC). The DC energy passes through an inverter, converting it to alternating current (AC) that can then be used on site or sent to the grid. Solar insolation is a measure of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface and is used to evaluate the solar potential of an area. Typically, insolation is measured in kWh per square meter (m2) per day (daily insolation average over a year). The higher the insolation number, the better 6 atb.nrel.gov/ Idaho Power Company 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 47 the solar-power potential for an area. NREL insolation charts show the desert southwest has the highest solar potential in the continental US. Modern solar PV technology has existed for several years but has historically been cost prohibitive. Recent improvements in technology and manufacturing, combined with increased demand, have made PV resources more cost competitive with other renewable and conventional generating technologies. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for utility-scale PV resources, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C: Technical Report of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Rooftop solar was considered in two forms as part of the 2019 IRP. In addition to generic locations for solar PV arrays, the 2019 IRP analyzed select areas that are reflective of a targeted siting for solar capacity within Idaho Power’s service area. Targeted solar is a process of identifying select locations on the delivery system where a solar facility could defer growth or reliability investments on the distribution or transmission system. These select areas are limited in size at 0.5 MW, with a total of 10 MW for the 20-year planning period. See the Targeted Grid Solar section later in this chapter for further discussion. Advancements in energy storage technologies have focused on coupling storage devices with solar PV resources to mitigate and offset the effects of an intermittent generation source. This coupling or pairing of resources was modeled and considered in the 2019 IRP. For a more complete description of battery storage, refer to the Storage Resources section of this chapter. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for single-axis tracking, utility-scale PV resources, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C: Technical Report of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Solar-Capacity Value For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power updated the capacity value of solar using the 8,760-based method developed by NREL7 and detailed herein. The NREL method is specifically described as a technique for representing VER capacity value in capacity expansion modeling, such as conducted using the AURORA model for the 2019 IRP. The capacity value of solar PV generation is a measurement of the contribution of solar PV capacity to meet system demand (including planning reserves). The capacity value of the solar PV is expressed as the percentage of nameplate AC capacity that contributes to the top peak net-load hours. Capacity Value for Solar PV Methodology The methodology employed by Idaho Power to calculate the capacity value for solar PV uses an Idaho Power system load-duration curve (LDC) and a net load-duration curve (NLDC), representing the net of system load and solar PV generation, for an entire year. The LDC reflects the total system load, sorted by hour, from the highest load to the lowest load. The NLDC 7 nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68869.pdf 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Idaho Power Company Page 48 Second Amended 2019 IRP represents the total system load minus the time-synchronized contribution from solar PV generation. The resulting net load is then sorted by hour, from the highest load to the lowest load. As shown in Figure 4.1, the capacity value of existing solar PV generation is the difference in the areas between the LDC (System Load) and NLDC (Net Load) during the top 100 hours of the duration curves divided by the rated AC capacity of the solar PV generation installed. These 100 hours can be a proxy for the hours with the highest risk for loss of load. Figure 4.1 Capacity value of solar PV In a similar fashion, the capacity value of the next solar PV plant, or the marginal capacity value (δ) of incremental solar PV, can be calculated using the same methodology. The marginal NLDC (δ) of incremental solar PV is calculated by subtracting the time-synchronized generation of incremental solar capacity from the NLDC. The resulting time series is again sorted by hour, from the highest load to the lowest load. As shown in Figure 4.2, the marginal capacity value of incremental solar PV is the difference in the areas between the NLDC (net load) and the NLDC (δ) (Net load [δ]) divided by the rated AC incremental solar PV capacity. 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 1 102 202 302 402 De m a n d ( M W ) Time (Hours) Capacity Value System Load Net Load Idaho Power Company 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 49 Figure 4.2 Marginal capacity value Results Capacity value was derived for three categories: 1) existing operational solar PV, 2) solar PV projects in construction, and 3) the future PV projects capacity value. The marginal capacity value of future PV projects was calculated in 40 MW alternating current (MWAC) increments. The capacity value of the existing operational solar PV was first calculated by applying the method to the 2017 system load. The capacity value was also calculated using 2018 system load. The final capacity value was obtained by averaging the capacity value obtained for both years. Table 4.1 shows the capacity value for the solar PV presently connected and for the solar PV projects in construction. The existing operational solar PV was evaluated as a single solar PV generator with 289.5 MWAC, representing the sum of the rated capacity of the existing operational solar PV generation on Idaho Power’s systems as of June 2019. The capacity value of the projects under construction was calculated as a single solar PV generator with a rated capacity of 26.5 MWAC, representing the rated capacity of the sum of the solar PV generation projects under construction. Table 4.1 Summary of capacity value results Capacity Value (% of Nameplate Capacity) Existing operational solar PV (289.5 MW) 61.86% Projects under construction (26.5 MW) 47.92% Idaho Power calculated the marginal capacity value of incremental solar PV projects each with a capacity rating of 40 MWAC. As the overall system peak load is decreased by the addition of incremental amounts of solar PV, eventually the top 100 hours of peak load contain fewer and 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 1 101 201 301 De m a n d ( M W ) Time (Hours) Capacity Value System Load Net Load 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Idaho Power Company Page 50 Second Amended 2019 IRP fewer hours when solar PV may contribute to reducing the peak load. Therefore, the incremental capacity value of solar decreases as more solar is added to the system. Figure 4.3 shows the resulting capacity value for every 40 MWAC increment of solar PV. Figure 4.3 Capacity value of incremental solar PV projects (40 MW each) Targeted Grid Solar Idaho Power analyzed transmission and distribution (T&D) deferral benefits associated with targeted solar. The analysis included the following: 1. Deferrable Investments: Potentially deferrable infrastructure investments were identified spanning a 20-year period from 2002 through 2021. The infrastructure investments served as a test bed to identify the attributes of investments required to serve Idaho Power’s growing customer base and whether those investments could have been (or could be) deferred with solar. Transmission, substation, and distribution projects driven by capacity growth were analyzed. The limiting capacity was identified for each asset along with the recommended in-service date, projected cost, peak loading, peak time of day, and projected growth rate. 2. Solar Contribution: The capacity demand reduction from varying amounts of solar was analyzed. Irradiance data was assumed to be consistent throughout the service area. The following was assumed for solar projects:  Rooftop solar: fixed, south facing  Large-scale solar: single-axis tracking 3. Methodology: If the net forecast (electrical demand minus an assumed solar generation contribution) was below the facility limiting capacity, the project could have been (or could be) deferred. The financial savings of deferring the project were then calculated. Idaho Power selected five infrastructure investments from the data set that could have been deferred with varying amounts of solar. The selection was made to represent different areas, solar project sizes, and deferral periods, as well as the frequency at which projects are likely to 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 Ca p a c i t y V a l u e ( % ) Number of Projects Idaho Power Company 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 51 be deferrable on Idaho Power’s system. The solar generation required to achieve each deferral and the value of each deferral varied. Table 4.2 Solar capacity required to defer infrastructure investments Location Years Deferred Deferral Savings Solar Project Size (kW) Capacity Value ($/kW) Blackfoot 8 $79,550 964 $82.52 Siphon (Pocatello) 4 $107,789 4,472 $24.10 Wye (Boise) 3 $19,767 2,339 $8.45 Nampa 2 $66,516 1,516 $43.87 Dietrich 2 $16,965 229 $74.08 The average capacity value of the identified investments was $46.60 per kW. This value was used for the T&D deferral locational value and reflected in Targeted Solar. It is anticipated that a locational value of T&D deferral may apply to an annual average of 500 kW of solar over the 20-year IRP forecast for a total potential of 10 MW of solar. This resource option was added to the AURORA LTCE model. Geothermal Potential for commercial geothermal generation in the Pacific Northwest includes both flashed steam and binary cycle technologies. Based on exploration to date in southern Idaho, binary-cycle geothermal development is more likely than flashed steam within Idaho Power’s service area. The flashed steam technology requires higher water temperatures. Most optimal locations for potential geothermal development are believed to be in the southeastern part of the state; however, the potential for geothermal generation in southern Idaho remains somewhat uncertain. The time required to discover and prove geothermal resource sites is highly variable and can take years. The overall cost of a geothermal resource varies with resource temperature, development size, and water availability. Flashed steam plants are applicable for geothermal resources where the fluid temperature is 300º Fahrenheit (F) or greater. Binary-cycle technology is used for lower temperature geothermal resources. In a binary-cycle geothermal plant, geothermal water is pumped to the surface and passed through a heat exchanger where the geothermal energy is transferred to a low-boiling-point fluid (the secondary fluid). The secondary fluid is vaporized and used to drive a turbine/generator. After driving the generator, the secondary fluid is condensed and recycled through a heat exchanger. The secondary fluid is in a closed system and is reused continuously in a binary-cycle plant. The primary fluid (the geothermal water) is returned to the geothermal reservoir through injection wells. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for binary-cycle geothermal generation, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Idaho Power Company Page 52 Second Amended 2019 IRP Hydroelectric Hydroelectric power is the foundation of Idaho Power’s electrical generation fleet. The existing generation is low cost and does not emit potentially harmful pollutants. The development of new, large hydroelectric projects is unlikely due to a lack of adequate sites and hurdles associated with regulatory, environmental, and permitting challenges that accompany new, large hydroelectric facilities. However, small-scale hydroelectric projects have been extensively developed in southern Idaho on irrigation canals and other sites; many of which have PPA contracts with Idaho Power. Small Hydroelectric Small hydroelectric projects, such as ROR and projects requiring limited or no impoundments, do not have the same level of environmental and permitting issues as large hydroelectric projects. The potential for new, small hydroelectric projects was studied by the ISEA’s Hydropower Task Force, and the results released in May 2009 indicate between 150 to 800 MW of new hydroelectric resources could be developed in Idaho. The reported figures are based on potential upgrades to existing facilities, undeveloped existing impoundments and water delivery systems, and in-stream flow opportunities. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for small hydroelectric resources, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Wind Modern wind turbines effectively collect and transfer energy from windy areas into electricity. A typical wind development consists of an array of wind turbines ranging in size from 1 to 3 MW each. Most potential wind sites in southern Idaho lie between the south-central and the southeastern part of the state. Productive wind energy sites are in areas that receive consistent, sustained winds greater than 15 miles per hour and are the best candidates for wind development. Upon comparison with other renewable energy alternatives, wind energy resources are well suited for the Intermountain and Pacific Northwest regions, as demonstrated by the large number of existing projects. Wind resources present unique operational challenges for electric utilities and system operators due to the intermittent and variable nature of wind-energy generation. To adequately account for the unique characteristics of wind energy, resource planning of new wind resources requires estimates of the expected annual energy and peak-hour capacity. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power applied a capacity factor of 5 percent for peak-hour planning. The 2019 IRP assumed an annual average capacity factor of 35 percent for projects sited in Idaho and 45 percent for projects sited in Wyoming. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for wind resources, see the Supply- Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Biomass The 2019 IRP includes anaerobic digesters as a resource alternative. Multiple anaerobic digesters have been built in southern Idaho due to the size and proximity of the dairy industry and the Idaho Power Company 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 53 large quantity of fuel available. Of the biomass technologies available, the 2019 IRP considers anaerobic digesters as a best fit for biomass resources within the service area. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for an anerobic digester, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Thermal Resources While renewable resources have garnered significant attention in recent years, conventional thermal generation resources are essential to providing dispatchable capacity, which is critical in maintaining the reliability of a bulk-electrical power system and to the ability to integrate renewable energy into the grid. Conventional thermal generation technologies include natural gas-fired resources, nuclear, and coal. Natural gas resources are identified in many modeled portfolios, but Idaho Power considers these resources proxies for future resources that can meet system needs and help accomplish the company’s clean energy goals while imposing the least cost on customers. The company is looking for ways to meet or offset its future dispatchable resource needs in accordance with its 2045 goals but acknowledges advances in technology and cost reductions may be required. Natural Gas-Fired Resources Natural gas fired resources burn natural gas in a combustion turbine to generate electricity. CCCTs are commonly used for baseload energy, while less-efficient SCCTs are used to generate electricity during peak-load periods. Additional details related to the characteristics of both types of natural gas resources are presented in the following sections. CCCT and SCCT resources are typically sited near existing natural gas transmission pipelines. All of Idaho Power’s existing natural gas generators are located adjacent to a major natural gas pipeline. Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines CCCT plants have been the preferred choice for new commercial, dispatchable power generation in the region. CCCT technology benefits from a relatively low initial capital cost compared to other baseload resources, has high thermal efficiencies, is highly reliable, provides significant operating flexibility, and when compared to coal, emits fewer emissions and requires fewer pollution controls. Modern CCCT facilities are highly efficient and can achieve efficiencies of approximately 60 percent (lower heating value) under ideal conditions. A traditional CCCT plant consists of a natural gas turbine/generator equipped with a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) to capture waste heat from the turbine exhaust. The HRSG uses waste heat from the combustion turbine to drive a steam turbine generator to produce additional electricity. In a CCCT plant, heat that would otherwise be wasted to the atmosphere is reclaimed and used to produce additional power beyond that typically produced by an SCCT. New CCCT plants can be constructed or existing SCCT plants can be converted to combined-cycle units by adding a HRSG. Multiple CCCT plants, like Idaho Power’s Langley Gulch project, are planned in the region due to a sustained depression in natural gas prices, the demand for baseload energy, and additional 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Idaho Power Company Page 54 Second Amended 2019 IRP operating reserves necessary to integrate intermittent resources. While there is not currently a scarcity of natural gas, fuel supply is a critical component of the long-term operation of a CCCT. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for a CCCT resource, see the Supply- Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Simple-Cycle Combustion Turbines SCCT natural gas technology involves pressurizing air that is then heated by burning gas in fuel combustors. The hot, pressurized air expands through the blades of the turbine that connects by a shaft to the electric generator. Designs range from larger, industrial machines at 80 to 200 MW to smaller machines derived from aircraft technology. SCCTs have a lower thermal efficiency than CCCT resources and are typically less economical on a per MWh basis. However, SCCTs can respond more quickly to grid fluctuations and can assist in the integration of variable and intermittent resources. Several natural gas-fired SCCTs have been brought on-line in the region in the past two decades, primarily in response to the regional energy crisis of 2000–2001. High electricity prices combined with persistent drought conditions during 2000–2001, as well as continued summertime peak-load growth, created an appetite for generation resources with low capital costs and relatively short construction lead times. Idaho Power currently owns and operates approximately 430 MW of SCCT capacity. As peak summertime electricity demand continues to grow within Idaho Power’s service area, SCCT generating resources remain a viable option to meet peak load during critical high-demand periods when the transmission system is constrained. The SCCT plants may also be dispatched based on economics during times when regional energy prices peak due to weather, fuel supply shortages, or other external grid influences. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for a SCCT unit, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines Reciprocating internal combustion engine (RICE) generation sets are typically multi-fuel engines connected to a generator through a flywheel and coupling. They are typically capable of burning natural gas. They are mounted on a common base frame resulting in the ability for an entire unit to be assembled, tuned, and tested in the factory before prior to delivery to the power plant location. This production efficiency minimizes capital costs. Operationally, reciprocating engines are typically installed in configurations with multiple identical units, allowing each engine to be operated at its highest efficiency level once started. As demand for grid generation increases, additional units can be started sequentially or simultaneously. This configuration also allows for relatively inexpensive future expansion of the plant capacity. Reciprocating engines provide unique benefits to the electrical grid. They are extremely flexible in the sense they can provide ancillary services to the grid in just a few minutes. Engines can go from a cold start to full-load in 10 minutes. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for RICE facilities, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Idaho Power Company 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 55 Combined Heat and Power Combined heat and power (CHP), or cogeneration, typically refers to simultaneous production of both electricity and useful heat from a single plant. CHP plants are typically located at, or near, commercial or industrial facilities capable of utilizing the heat generated in the process. These facilities are sometimes referred to as the steam host. Generation technologies frequently used in CHP projects are gas turbines or engines with a heat-recovery unit. The main advantage of CHP is that higher overall efficiencies can be obtained because the steam host can use a large portion of the waste heat that would otherwise be lost in a typical generation process. Because CHP resources are typically located near load centers, investment in additional transmission capacity can also often be avoided. In addition, reduced costs for the steam host provide a competitive advantage that would ultimately help the local economy. In the evaluation of CHP resources, it became evident that CHP could be a relatively high-cost addition to Idaho Power’s resource portfolio if the steam host’s need for steam forced the electrical portion of the project to run at times when electricity market prices were below the dispatch cost of the plant. To find ways to make CHP more economical, Idaho Power is committed to working with individual customers to design operating schemes that allow power to be produced when it is most valuable, while still meeting the needs of the steam host’s production process. This would be difficult to model for the IRP because each potential CHP opportunity could be substantially different. While not expressly analyzed in the 2019, Idaho Power will continue to evaluate CHP projects on an individual basis as they are proposed to the company. Nuclear Resources The nuclear power industry has been working to develop and improve reactor technology for many years and Idaho Power continues to evaluate various technologies in the IRP process. Due to the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site located in eastern Idaho, the IRP has typically assumed that an advanced-design or small modular reactor (SMR) could be built on the site. In the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan relating to the Fukushima nuclear plant, global concerns persist over the safety of nuclear power generation. While there have been new design and safety measures implemented, it is difficult to estimate the full impact this disaster will have on the future of nuclear power generation in the US. Idaho Power continues to monitor the advancement of SMR technology and will continue to evaluate it in the future as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews proposed SMR designs in the coming years. For the 2019 IRP, a 60-MW small-modular plant was analyzed. Grid services provided by the SMR include baseload energy, peaking capacity, and flexible capacity. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for an advanced SMR nuclear resource, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Coal Resources Conventional coal-fired generation resources have been a part of Idaho Power’s generation portfolio since the early 1970s. Growing concerns over emissions and climate change coupled 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Idaho Power Company Page 56 Second Amended 2019 IRP with historic-low natural gas prices, have made it imprudent to consider building any new conventional coal generation resources. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) is an evolving coal-based technology designed to substantially reduce CO2 emissions. As the regulation of CO2 emissions eventually makes conventional coal resources obsolete, the commercialization of this technology may allow the continued use of coal resources. IGCC technology is also dependent on the development of carbon capture and sequestration technology that would allow CO2 to be stored underground for long periods of time. Coal gasification is a relatively mature technology, but it has not been widely adapted as a resource to generate electricity. IGCC technology involves turning coal into a synthetic gas or “syngas” that can be processed and cleaned to a point that it meets pipeline quality standards. To produce electricity, the syngas is burned in a conventional combustion turbine that drives a generator. The addition of CO2-capture equipment decreases the overall efficiency of an IGCC plant by as much as 15 percent. In addition, once the carbon is captured, it must either be used or stored for long periods of time. CO2 has been injected into existing oil fields to enhance oil recovery; however, if IGCC technology were widely adopted by utilities for power production, the quantities of CO2 produced would require the development of underground sequestration methods. Sequestration methods are currently being developed and tested; however, commercialization of the technology is not expected to happen for some time. No new coal-based energy resources were modeled as part of the 2019 IRP. Storage Resources RPSs have spurred the development of renewable resources in the Pacific Northwest to the point where there is an oversupply of energy during select times of the year. Mid-Columbia wholesale market prices for electricity continue to remain relatively low. The oversupply issue has grown to the point where at certain times of the year, such as in the spring, low customer demand coupled with large amounts of hydro and wind generation cause real time and day ahead wholesale market prices to be negative. As increasing amounts of intermittent renewable resources like wind and solar continue to be built within the region, the value of an energy storage project increases. There are many energy-storage technologies at various stages of development, such as hydrogen storage, compressed air, flywheels, battery storage, pumped hydro storage, and others. The 2019 IRP considered a variety of energy-storage technologies and modeled battery storage and pumped hydro storage. Battery Storage Just as there are many types of storage technologies being researched and developed, there are numerous types of battery-storage technologies at various stages of development. Commonly studied technologies include vanadium redox-flow battery (VRB), Lithium-Ion (Li) battery systems and Zinc battery systems. Idaho Power Company 4. Future Supply-Side Generation and Storage Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 57 Advantages of the VRB technology include its low cost, long life, and easy scalability to utility/grid applications. Most battery technologies are not a good fit for utility-scale applications because they cannot be easily or economically scaled to much larger sizes. The VRB overcomes much of this issue because the capacity of the battery can be increased just by increasing the size of the tanks that contain the electrolytes, which also helps keep the cost relatively low. VRB technology also has an advantage in maintenance and replacement costs, as only certain components need replaced about every 10 years, whereas other battery technologies require a complete replacement of the battery and more frequently depending on use. Idaho Power recognizes the continued technological development of VRB and will continue to monitor price trends and utility scalability of this technology in the coming years. In recent years Li battery systems have been installed commercially in the US. Li battery storage systems realize high charging and discharging efficiencies. Li-based energy storage devices present potential safety concerns due to overheating. Costs for Li battery systems are still relatively high. Idaho Power recognizes the continued technological development of Li batteries used in utility-scale storage facilities. Idaho Power will continue to monitor price trends and scalability of this technology in the coming years. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for Li battery technology, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. Pumped-Storage Hydro Pumped hydro storage is a type of hydroelectric power generation that is capable of consuming electricity during times of low value and generating electricity during periods of high value. The technology stores energy in the form of water, pumped from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher elevation. Lower cost, off-peak electricity is used to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir. During higher-cost periods of high electrical demand, the water stored in the upper reservoir is used to produce electricity. For pumped storage to be economical, there must be a significant differential (arbitrage) in the value of electricity between peak and off-peak times to overcome the costs incurred due to efficiency and other losses that make pumped storage a net consumer of energy overall. Typical round-trip cycle efficiencies are between 75 and 82 percent. The efficiency of a pumped hydro- storage facility is dependent on system configuration and site-specific characteristics. Historically, the differential between peak and off-peak energy prices in the Pacific Northwest has not been sufficient enough to make pumped storage an economically viable resource. Due to the recent increase in the number of wind and solar projects on the regional grid, the amount of intermittent generation provided, and the ancillary services required, Idaho Power will continue to monitor the viability of pumped hydro storage projects in the region. For Idaho Power’s cost estimates and operating parameters for pumped hydro storage, see the Supply-Side Resource section of Appendix C–Technical Appendix of the Second Amended 2019 IRP. 5. Demand-Side Resources Idaho Power Company Page 58 Second Amended 2019 IRP 5. DEMAND-SIDE RESOURCES Demand-Side Management Program Overview DSM resources offset future energy loads by reducing energy demand through either efficient equipment upgrades (energy efficiency) or peak-system demand reduction (demand response). DSM resources have been a leading resource in IRPs since 2004, providing average cumulative system load reductions of over 240 aMW by year-end 2018. Historically, energy efficiency potential resources have first been forecasted, screened for cost-effectiveness, and then all available energy efficiency potential resources are included into the IRP before considering new supply-side resources. In the 2019 IRP, based on input from the IRPAC, two alternative approaches to estimate energy efficiency potential were tested and considered. Included in the preferred portfolio is 45 MW of peak summer capacity reduction from demand response and 234 aMW of average annual load reduction from energy efficiency. Additionally, energy efficiency will reduce peak by 367 MW. Energy Efficiency Forecasting—Potential Assessment While Idaho Power tested alternative energy efficiency potential forecasting methods in the 2019 IRP, the underlying initial potential study was the same as the 2017 IRP methodology and served as a base case for comparison purposes. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power’s third-party contractor (contractor), provided a 20-year forecast of Idaho Power’s energy efficiency potential from a total resource cost (TRC) perspective. The contractor also provided additional forecasts based on different economic scenarios. For the initial study, the contractor developed three levels of energy efficiency potential: technical, economic, and achievable. The three levels of potential are described below. 1. Technical—Technical potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of energy efficiency potential. Technical potential assumes customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of cost. In new construction, customers and developers are assumed to choose the most efficient equipment available. Technical potential also assumes the adoption of every applicable measure available. The retrofit measures are phased in over several years, which is increased for higher-cost measures. 2. Economic—Economic potential represents the adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency measures. In the potential study, the contractor applies the TRC test for cost-effectiveness, which compares lifetime energy and capacity benefits to the incremental Idaho Power’s Irrigation Peak Rewards program helps offset energy use on high-use days. Idaho Power Company 5. Demand-Side Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 59 cost of the measure. Economic potential assumes customers purchase the most cost-effective option at the time of equipment failure and adopt every cost-effective and applicable measure. 3. Achievable—Achievable potential considers market adoption, customer preferences for energy-efficient technologies, and expected program participation. Achievable potential estimates a realistic target for the energy efficiency savings a utility can achieve through its programs. It is determined by applying a series of annual market-adoption factors to the cost-effective potential for each energy efficiency measure. These factors represent the ramp rates at which technologies will penetrate the market. Alternative Energy Efficiency Modeling Methods Idaho Power tested two alternate energy efficiency modeling approaches in the 2019 IRP. In addition to the baseline potential study which assessed technical, economic, and achievable potential in a manner consistent with past IRPs, the company tested a sensitivity modeling method and a technically achievable potential supply curve bundling technique. Sensitivity Modeling The first alternative energy efficiency potential assessment method tested was a sensitivity modeling analysis. Under this approach, the contractor created three levels of achievable energy efficiency potential based on three different alternate cost forecasts. Each forecast corresponded to different natural gas price forecasts. The goal was to create differing levels of cost-effective energy efficiency based on the three sets of alternate costs that would be further analyzed in the AURORA portfolio selection process. Based on input from the IRPAC, the sensitivity approach was not adopted in the final IRP modeling because the method was observed to inappropriately screen energy efficiency potential at multiple steps in the process. Technically Achievable Supply Curve Bundling Based on input from IRPAC, a second approach was tested that established bundles of technically achievable energy efficiency potential. Technically achievable applies a market adoption factor intended to estimate those customers likely to participate in programs incentivizing more efficient processes and/or equipment, similar to the approach used when forecasting achievable potential. The contractor created 10 technical achievable bundles of energy efficiency potential based on increasing efficiency costs and bundled by percentile. These technical achievable potential bundles were based on net levelized TRC across the 20-year planning period (0–10th percentile, 10th–20th percentile, etc.). An 11th bundle captured extremely high-cost measures above $250 per MWh. The bundles of energy efficiency measures or technologies were created across customer class and building types. For example, one cost bundle could contain residential, commercial, industrial, and irrigation measures if the underlying measures had similar costs. Table 5.1 lists the cumulative bundle resource potential in aMW over 20 years and the weighted average net levelized TRC over the same period. 5. Demand-Side Resources Idaho Power Company Page 60 Second Amended 2019 IRP Table 5.1 Technical achievable bundles size and average cost 5-Year Potential (aMW) Bundle 2019 2023 2028 2033 2038 20 Year Net Average Real Cost ($/MWh) 0–10th Percentile 1 7 17 27 33 -$102 10–20th Percentile 3 8 17 27 33 -$18 20–30th Percentile 3 12 22 29 34 $14 30–40th Percentile 1 8 18 27 33 $32 40–50th Percentile 2 8 16 25 34 $38 50–60th Percentile 1 7 14 22 33 $48 60–70th Percentile 2 11 21 28 33 $69 70–80th Percentile 3 16 27 32 34 $131 80–90th Percentile 2 13 26 31 34 $133 90–100th Percentile 2 11 24 30 33 $189 High Cost 2 14 27 35 41 $2,235 Idaho Power strives to ensure all cost-effective energy efficiency potential is fully accounted for in resource planning. Because Idaho Power’s load forecast includes a level of cost-effective energy efficiency expected to occur during a given forecast period, an important step in this process was to compare the level of future cost-effective energy efficiency included in the 2019 IRP load forecast to bundled levels of efficiency represented in Table 5.1. This comparison concluded the amount of energy efficiency included in the first seven bundles of energy efficiency potential was approximately equal to the amount of efficiency potential included in the load forecast and the economic-achievable potential identified in the initial potential assessment. Thus, energy efficiency bundles for the zero through the 70th percentile are considered reflected in all IRP resource portfolios. The higher cost bundles, 8 through 11, were available to be selected by the AURORA model in the LTCE process but were shown to not be economically competitive against other resources. The 0 to 10th and 10 to 20th percentile bundles’ average TRCs are negative because the non- energy impacts exceed the cost. Figure 5.1 shows cumulative technical achievable energy efficiency potential beginning in 2019. The energy efficiency bundles from 0 to 70th percentile bundle are representative of the levels of energy efficiency included in 2019 IRP portfolios. Higher-cost bundles beyond the 60 to 70th percentile bundle were determined not to be economically competitive when compared with other resources. Table 5.1 shows that bundles beyond the 60 to 70th percentile bundle have weighted average measure costs of $131 per MWh or greater. Idaho Power Company 5. Demand-Side Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 61 Figure 5.1 Energy-efficient bundles selected by the IRP model and bundles that were not economically competitive and were not selected for the 2019 IRP portfolios Future Energy Efficiency Potential The 20-year energy efficiency potential included in the 2019 IRP declined from 273 aMW in 2017 IRP to 234 aMW in the 2019 IRP. System on-peak potential from energy efficiency also declined from 483 MW to 367 MW from the 2017 IRP to the 2019 IRP. Most of the decline in energy efficiency potential was due to the reduction of the number of residential lighting measures that will be available for Idaho Power energy efficiency programs. The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act manufacturing standard that will take effect in 2020 will increase efficiency standards for residential lighting. It is assumed this standard will only allow LED bulbs to meet manufacturing standards for most light bulbs that consumers purchase. Although the reduction from energy efficiency potential available for Idaho Power’s programs will be reduced, the energy savings will still reduce overall load without utility intervention. A detailed discussion about the impacts on programs from codes and standards changes is available in the 2018 Energy Efficiency Potential Study. DSM Program Performance and Reliability Energy Efficiency Performance Energy efficiency investments since 2002 have resulted in a cumulative average annual load reduction of 242 aMW, or over 2 million MWh, of reduced supply-side energy production to customers through 2018. Figure 5.2 shows the cumulative annual growth in energy efficiency effects over the 17-year period from 2002 through 2018, along with the associated IRP targets developed as part of the IRP process since 2004. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2019 2023 2028 2033 2038 Cu m u l a t i v e M W h ' 0 0 0 ' s 0-70th Percentile Bundles (included)70th+ Percentile (not selected) 5. Demand-Side Resources Idaho Power Company Page 62 Second Amended 2019 IRP * Idaho Power savings include Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) non-code/federal standards savings Figure 5.2 Cumulative annual growth in energy efficiency compared with IRP targets Idaho Power’s energy efficiency portfolio is currently a cost-effective and low-cost resource. Table 5.2 shows the 2018 year-end program results, expenses, and corresponding benefit-cost ratios. Table 5.2 Total energy efficiency portfolio cost-effectiveness summary, 2018 program performance Customer Class 2018 Savings (MWh) TRC ($000s) Total Benefits ($000s) (20-Year NPV*) TRC: Benefit/ Cost Ratio TRC Levelized Costs (cents/kWh) Residential 43,651 $13,634 $43,310 3.2 2.7 Industrial/commercial 95,759 $37,567 $70,324 1.9 3.2 Irrigation 19,001 $11,948 $36,344 3.0 7.6 Total 158,411 $63,149 $149,978 2.4 3.4 * NPV=Net Present Value Note: Excludes market transformation program savings. Energy Efficiency Reliability The company contracts with third-party contractors to conduct energy efficiency program impact evaluations to verify energy savings and process evaluations to assess operational efficiency on a scheduled and as-required basis. Idaho Power uses industry-standard protocols for its internal and external evaluation efforts, including the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency—Model Energy Efficiency Program 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cu m u l a t i v e S a v i n g s a n d T a r g e t s ( a M W ) *IPC Savings IRP Targets Idaho Power Company 5. Demand-Side Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 63 Impact Evaluation Guide, the California Evaluation Framework, the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP), the Database for Energy Efficiency Resources, and the Regional Technical Forum’s (RTF) evaluation protocols. Timing of impact evaluations are based on protocols from these industry standards with large portfolio contributors being evaluated more often and with more rigor. Smaller portfolio contributors are evaluated less often and require less analysis as most of the program measure savings are deemed savings from the RTF or other sources. Evaluated savings are expressed through a realization rate (reported savings divided by evaluated savings). Realized savings of programs evaluated between 2017 and 2018 ranged between 84 and 101 percent. The savings weighted realized savings average over the same period is 100 percent. Demand Response Performance Demand response resources have been part of the demand-side portfolio since the 2004 IRP. The current demand response portfolio is comprised of three programs. Table 5.3 lists the three programs that make up the current demand response portfolio, along with the different program characteristics. The Irrigation Peak Rewards program represents the largest percent of potential demand reduction. During the 2018 summer season, Irrigation Peak Rewards participants contributed 82 percent of the total potential demand-reduction capacity, or 313 MW. More details on Idaho Power’s demand response programs can be found in Appendix B—Demand-Side Management 2018 Annual Report. Table 5.3 2018 Demand response program capacity Program Customer Class Reduction Technology 2018 Total Demand Response Capacity (MW) Percent of Total 2018 Capacity* A/C Cool Credit Residential Central A/C 37 10% Flex Peak Program Commercial, industrial Various 33 9% Irrigation Peak Rewards Irrigation Pumps 313 82% Total 383 100% *Values may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Figure 5.3 shows the historical annual demand response program capacity between 2004 and 2018. The demand-response capacity was lower in 2013 because of the one-year suspension of both the irrigation and residential programs. The temporary program suspension was due to a lack of near-term capacity deficits in the 2013 IRP. 5. Demand-Side Resources Idaho Power Company Page 64 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 5.3 Historic annual demand response program performance Demand Response Resource Potential Under the current program design and participation levels, demand response from all programs is committed to provide 390 MW of peak capacity during June and July throughout the IRP planning period, with reduced amount of program potential available during August. The committed demand response included in the IRP has a capacity cost of $29 per kW-year. As part of the IRP’s rigorous examination of the potential for expanded demand response, the company first evaluated additional demand-response capacity need outside of the AURORA model to determine any constraints needed in the modeling process. The company considered achievability and operability to properly model the potential expansion of demand response. Based on this analysis, the company made available 5 MW blocks of incremental new demand response each year for selection in AURORA starting in 2023 at a cost of $60 per kW-year. This additional demand response, beyond the 390 MW the company considers a committed resource, was selected in various amounts by the AURORA LTCE model in 22 of the 24 potential portfolios and was nearly maximized with a total of 45 MW in the Preferred Portfolio. T&D Deferral Benefits Idaho Power determined the T&D deferral benefits associated with energy efficiency using historical and projected investments over a 20-year period from 2002 to 2021. Transmission, substation, and distribution projects at various locations across the company’s system were represented. The limiting capacity (determined by distribution circuit or transformer) was identified for each project along with the anticipated in-service date, projected cost, peak load, and projected growth rate. Varying amounts of incremental energy efficiency were used and spread evenly across customer classes on all distribution circuits. Peak demand reduction was calculated and applied to summer and winter peaks for the distribution circuits and substation transformers. If the adjusted forecast 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Pe a k D e m a n d R e d u c t i o n C a p a c i t y ( M W ) Actual load reduction Available capacity Idaho Power Company 5. Demand-Side Resources Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 65 was below the limiting capacity, it was assumed an associated project—the distribution circuit, substation transformer, or transmission line—could be deferred. The financial savings of deferring the project were then calculated. The total savings from all deferrable projects were divided by the total annual energy efficiency reduction required to obtain the deferral savings over the service area. Idaho Power calculated the corresponding T&D deferral value for each year in the 20-year forecast of incremental achievable energy efficiency. The calculated T&D deferral values range from $6.52 per kW-year to $1.40 per kW-year based on a forecasted incremental reduction in system sales of between 0.86 percent to 0.43 percent from energy efficiency programs. The 20-year average is $3.74 per kW-year. These values will be used in the calculation of energy efficiency cost-effectiveness. 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 66 Second Amended 2019 IRP 6. TRANSMISSION PLANNING Past and Present Transmission High-voltage transmission lines are vital to the development of energy resources for Idaho Power customers. Transmission lines made it possible to develop a network of hydroelectric projects in the Snake River system, supplying reliable, low-cost energy. In the 1950s and 1960s, regional transmission lines stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the HCC and to the Treasure Valley were central for the development of the HCC projects. In the 1970s and 1980s, transmission lines allowed partnerships in three coal-fired power plants in neighboring states to deliver energy to Idaho Power customers. Today, transmission lines connect Idaho Power to wholesale energy markets and help economically and reliably mitigate variability of intermittent resources, and consequently are critical to Idaho Power’s achievement of its goal to provide 100-percent clean energy by 2045. Idaho Power’s transmission interconnections provide economic benefits and improve reliability through the transfer of electricity between utilities to serve load and share operating reserves. Historically, Idaho Power experiences its peak load at different times of the year than most Pacific Northwest utilities; as a result, Idaho Power can purchase energy from the Mid-Columbia energy trading market during its peak load and sell excess energy to Pacific Northwest utilities during their peak. Additional regional transmission connections to the Pacific Northwest would benefit the environment and Idaho Power customers in the following ways: • Delay or avoid construction of additional resources to serve peak demand • Increase revenue from off-system sales during the winter and spring credited to customers through the PCA • Increase revenue from sales of transmission system capacity credited to Idaho Power customers • Increase system reliability • Increase the ability to integrate intermittent resources, such as wind and solar • Improve the ability to more efficiently implement advanced market tools, such as the EIM 500-kilovolt (kV) transmission line near Melba, Idaho Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 67 Transmission Planning Process FERC mandates several aspects of the transmission planning process. FERC Order No. 1000 requires Idaho Power to participate in transmission planning on a local, regional, and interregional basis, as described in Attachment K of the Idaho Power Open-Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) and summarized in the following sections. Local Transmission Planning Idaho Power uses a biennial process to create a local transmission plan (LTP) identifying needed transmission system additions. The LTP is a 20-year plan that incorporates planned supply-side resources identified in the IRP process, transmission upgrades identified in the local-area transmission advisory process, forecasted network customer load (e.g., Bonneville Power Administration [BPA] customers in eastern Oregon and southern Idaho), Idaho Power’s retail customer load, and third-party transmission customer requirements. By evaluating these inputs, required transmission system enhancements are identified that will ensure safety and reliability. The LTP is shared with the regional transmission planning process. A local-area transmission advisory process is performed every 10 years for each of the load centers identified, using unique community advisory committees to develop local-area plans. The community advisory committees include jurisdictional planners, mayors, city council members, county commissioners, and representatives from large industry, commercial, residential, and environmental groups. Plans identify transmission and substation infrastructure needed for full development of the local area, accounting for land-use limits, with estimated in-service dates for projects. Local-area plans are created for the following load centers: 1. Eastern Idaho 2. Magic Valley 3. Wood River Valley 4. Eastern Treasure Valley 5. Western Treasure Valley 6. West Central Mountains Regional Transmission Planning Idaho Power is active in NorthernGrid, a regional transmission planning association of 13 member utilities. The NorthernGrid was formed in early 2020. Previously, dating back to 2007, Idaho Power was a member of the Northern Tier Transmission Group. NorthernGrid membership includes Avista, BPA, Chelan County PUD, Grant County PUD, Idaho Power, Montana–Alberta Tie Line (MATL), NorthWestern Energy, PacifiCorp (Rocky Mountain Power and Pacific Power), Portland General Electric, Puget Sound Energy, Seattle City Light, Snohomish County PUD, and Tacoma Power. Biennially, NorthernGrid will develop a regional transmission plan using a public stakeholder process to evaluate transmission needs resulting from members’ load forecasts, LTPs, IRPs, generation interconnection queues, other proposed 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 68 Second Amended 2019 IRP resource development, and forecast uses of the transmission system by wholesale transmission customers. The next regional transmission plan is expected to be published at the end of 2021. Existing Transmission System Idaho Power’s transmission system extends from eastern Oregon through southern Idaho to western Wyoming and is composed of 115-, 138-, 161-, 230-, 345-, and 500-kV transmission facilities. Sets of lines that transmit power from one geographic area to another are known as transmission paths. Transmission paths are evaluated by WECC utilities to obtain an approved power transfer rating. Idaho Power has defined transmission paths to all neighboring states and between specific southern Idaho load centers as shown in Figure 6.1. Figure 6.1 Idaho Power transmission system map The transmission paths identified on the map are described in the following sections, along with the conditions that result in capacity limitations. Idaho to Northwest Path The Idaho to Northwest transmission path consists of the 500-kV Hemingway–Summer Lake line, the three 230-kV lines between the HCC and the Pacific Northwest, and the 115-kV interconnection at Harney Substation near Burns, Oregon. The Idaho to Northwest path is Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 69 capacity-limited during summer months due to energy imports from the Pacific Northwest to serve Idaho Power retail load and transmission-wheeling obligations for the BPA load in eastern Oregon and southern Idaho. Additional transmission capacity is required to facilitate additional market purchases from northwest entities to serve Idaho Power’s growing customer base. Brownlee East Path The Brownlee East transmission path is on the east side of the Idaho to Northwest path shown in Figure 6.1. Brownlee East is comprised of the 230-kV and 138-kV lines east of the HCC and Quartz Substation near Baker City, Oregon. When the Hemingway–Summer Lake 500-kV line is included with the Brownlee East path, the path is typically referred to as the Total Brownlee East path. The Brownlee East path is capacity-limited during the summer months due to a combination of HCC hydroelectric generation flowing east into the Treasure Valley concurrent with transmission-wheeling obligations for BPA southern Idaho load and Idaho Power energy imports from the Pacific Northwest. Capacity limitations on the Brownlee East path limit the amount of energy Idaho Power can transfer from the HCC, as well as energy imports from the Pacific Northwest. If new resources, including market purchases, are located west of the path, additional transmission capacity will be required to deliver the energy to the Treasure Valley load center. Idaho–Montana Path The Idaho–Montana transmission path consists of the Antelope–Anaconda 230-kV and Goshen–Dillon 161-kV transmission lines. The Idaho–Montana path is also capacity-limited during the summer months as Idaho Power, BPA, PacifiCorp, and others move energy south from Montana into Idaho. Borah West Path The Borah West transmission path is internal to Idaho Power’s system and is jointly owned between Idaho Power and PacifiCorp. Idaho Power owns 1,467 MW of the path, and PacifiCorp owns 1,090 MW of the path. The path is comprised of 345-kV, 230-kV, and 138-kV transmission lines west of the Borah Substation located near American Falls, Idaho. Idaho Power’s one-third share of energy from the Jim Bridger plant flows over this path, as well as energy from east-side resources and imports from Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Heavy path flows are also likely to exist during the light-load hours of the fall and winter months as high eastern thermal and wind production move west across the system to the Pacific Northwest. Additional transmission capacity will likely be required if new resources or market purchases are located east of the Borah West path. Midpoint West Path The Midpoint West transmission path is internal to Idaho Power’s system and is a jointly owned path between Idaho Power and PacifiCorp. Idaho Power owns 1,710 MW of the path and PacifiCorp owns 1,090 MW of the path (all on the Midpoint–Hemingway 500-kV line). The path is comprised of 500-kV, 230-kV, and 138-kV transmission lines west of Midpoint Substation located near Jerome, Idaho. Like the Borah West path, the heaviest path flows are likely to exist during the fall and winter when significant wind and thermal generation is present east of the 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 70 Second Amended 2019 IRP path. Additional transmission capacity will likely be required if new resources or market purchases are located east of the Midpoint West path. Idaho–Nevada Path The Idaho–Nevada transmission path is comprised of the 345-kV Midpoint–Humboldt line. Idaho Power and NV Energy are co-owners of the line, which was developed at the same time the North Valmy Power Plant was built in northern Nevada. Idaho Power is allocated 100 percent of the northbound capacity, while NV Energy is allocated 100 percent of the southbound capacity. By the end of 2020, the import, or northbound, capacity on the transmission path is 360 MW, of which Valmy Unit 2 utilizes approximately 130 MW. The Jackpot Solar Project, described in the Power Purchase Agreements subsection of Chapter 3, will interconnect to this path at a substation north of the Idaho–Nevada border. Idaho–Wyoming Path The Idaho–Wyoming path, referred to as Bridger West, is comprised of three 345-kV transmission lines between the Jim Bridger generation plant and southeastern Idaho. Idaho Power owns 800 MW of the 2,400-MW east-to-west capacity. PacifiCorp owns the remaining capacity. The Bridger West path effectively feeds into the Borah West path when power is moving east to west from Jim Bridger; consequently, the import capability of the Bridger West path can be limited by Borah West path capacity constraints. Idaho–Utah Path The Idaho–Utah path, referred to as Path C, is comprised of 345-, 230-, 161-, and 138-kV transmission lines between southeastern Idaho and northern Utah. PacifiCorp is the path owner and operator of all the transmission lines. The path effectively feeds into Idaho Power’s Borah West path when power is moving from east to west; consequently, the import capability of Path C can be limited by Borah West path capacity constraints. Table 6.1 summarizes the import capability for paths impacting Idaho Power operations and lists their total capacity and available transfer capability (ATC); most of the paths are completely allocated with no capacity remaining. Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 71 Table 6.1 Transmission import capacity Transmission Path Import Direction Capacity (MW) ATC (MW)* Idaho–Northwest West to east 1,200 Varies by Month Idaho–Nevada South to north 360 Varies by Month Idaho–Montana North to south 383 Varies by Month Brownlee East West to east 1,915 Internal Path Midpoint West East to west 1,710 Internal Path Borah West East to west 2,557 Internal Path Idaho–Wyoming (Bridger West) East to west 2,400 86 (Idaho Power Share) Idaho–Utah (Path C) South to north 1,250 PacifiCorp Path * The ATC of a specific path may change based on changes in the transmission service and generation interconnection request queue (i.e., the end of a transmission service, granting of transmission service, or cancelation of generation projects that have granted future transmission capacity). Boardman to Hemingway In the 2006 IRP process, Idaho Power identified the need for a transmission line to the Pacific Northwest electric market. At that time, a 230-kV line interconnecting at the McNary Substation to the greater Boise area was included in IRP portfolios. Since its initial identification, the project has been refined and developed, including evaluating upgrade options of existing transmission lines, evaluating terminus locations, and sizing the project to economically meet the needs of Idaho Power and other regional participants. The project, identified in 2006, has evolved into what is now B2H. The project, which is expected to provide a total of 2,050 MW of bidirectional capacity8, involves permitting, constructing, operating, and maintaining a new, single-circuit 500-kV transmission line approximately 300-miles long between the proposed Longhorn Station near Boardman, Oregon, and the existing Hemingway Substation in southwest Idaho. The new line will provide many benefits, including the following: • Greater access to the Pacific Northwest electric market to economically serve homes, farms, and businesses in Idaho Power’s service area • Improved system reliability and resiliency • Reduced capacity limitations on the regional transmission system as demands on the system continue to grow • Flexibility to integrate renewable resources and more efficiently implement advanced market tools, such as the EIM The benefits of B2H in aggregate reflect its importance to the achievement of Idaho Power’s goal to provide 100-percent clean energy by 2045 without compromising the company’s commitment to reliability and affordability. 8 B2H is expected to provide 1,050 MW of capacity in the West-to-East direction, and 1,000 MW of capacity in the East-to-West direction. 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 72 Second Amended 2019 IRP The B2H project has been identified as a preferred resource in the past five IRPs since 2009 and ongoing permitting activities have been acknowledged in every IRP near-term action plan since 2009. The 2017 IRP was the first IRP to include constructed activities in the near-term action plan. The 2017 IRP near-term action plan, and thus, B2H construction related activities, was acknowledged by both Idaho and Oregon PUCs. Given the importance of the B2H project, the company provides a dedicated IRP appendix, Appendix D: B2H Supplement, that provides granular detail regarding the Idaho Power’s need for the project, co-participants, project history, benefits, risks, and more. B2H is a regionally significant project; it has been identified as producing a more efficient or cost-effective plan in every Northern Tier Transmission Group (NTTG) biennial regional transmission plan for the past 10 years. NTTG regional transmission plans produce a more efficient or cost-effective regional transmission plan meeting the transmission requirements associated with the load and resource needs of the NTTG footprint. The B2H project was selected by the Obama administration as one of seven nationally significant transmission projects that, when built, will help increase electric reliability, integrate new renewable energy into the grid, create jobs, and save consumers money. In a November 17, 2017, US Department of the Interior press release,9 B2H was held up as “a Trump Administration priority focusing on infrastructure needs that support America’s energy independence…” The release went on to say, “This project will help stabilize the power grid in the Northwest, while creating jobs and carrying low-cost energy to the families and businesses who need it…” B2H Value In the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power requests acknowledgement of B2H based on the evaluation of Idaho Power’s Oregon and Idaho native load customers funding 21 percent of the B2H project. B2H’s value to Idaho Power’s customers is substantial and it is a key least-cost resource. • The best future resource portfolio that included B2H was significantly better than the best future resource portfolio that did not include B2H. • B2H provides is a big step in moving Idaho Power toward our 2045 clean energy goal • The B2H 500-kV line adds significant regional capacity with some remaining unallocated capacity. • Additional parties may reduce costs and further optimize the project for all participants. Project Participants In January 2012, Idaho Power entered into a joint funding agreement with PacifiCorp and BPA to pursue permitting of the project. The agreement designates Idaho Power as the permitting 9 blm.gov/press-release/doi-announces-approval-transmission-line-project-oregon-and-idaho Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 73 project manager for the B2H project. Table 6.2 shows each party’s B2H capacity and permitting cost allocation. Table 6.2 B2H capacity and permitting cost allocation Idaho Power BPA PacifiCorp Capacity (MW) west to east 350: 200 winter/500 summer 400: 550 winter/250 summer 300 Capacity (MW) east to west 85 97 818 Permitting cost allocation 21% 24% 55% Additionally, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was executed between Idaho Power, BPA, and PacifiCorp to explore opportunities for BPA to serve eastern Idaho load from the Hemingway Substation. BPA identified six solutions—including two B2H options—to meet its load-service obligations in southeast Idaho. On October 2, 2012, BPA publicly announced the preferred solution to be the B2H project. The participation of three large utilities working toward the permitting of B2H further demonstrates the regional significance and regional benefits of the project. As of June 30, 2020, BPA and PacifiCorp have collectively invested over $74 million towards project activities. Please refer to Appendix D for more information on project co- participants. Figure 6.2 shows the transmission line route submitted to the ODOE in 2017. 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 74 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 6.2 B2H route submitted in 2017 EFSC Application for Site Certificate Permitting Update The permitting phase of the B2H project is subject to review and approval by, among other government entities, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), US Forest Service (USFS), US Navy, and ODOE. The federal permitting process is dictated primarily by the Federal Land Policy Management Act and National Forest Management Act and is subject to NEPA review. The BLM is the lead agency in administering the NEPA process for the B2H project. On November 25, 2016, BLM published the Final EIS, and the BLM issued a Record of Decision (ROD) on November 17, 2017. The USFS issued a separate ROD on November 13, 2018 for lands administered by the USFS based on the analysis in the Final EIS. The USFS ROD approves the issuance of a special-use authorization for a portion of the project that crosses the Wallowa–Whitman National Forest. The Department of Defense issued a separate ROD on September 25, 2019 for lands administered by the US Navy, based on the analysis in the Final EIS. The US Navy ROD approves the issuance of a right-of-way easement for a portion of the project that crosses the Naval Weapons System Training Facility in Boardman, Oregon. For the State of Oregon permitting process, Idaho Power submitted the preliminary Application for Site Certificate (pASC) to the ODOE in February 2013 and submitted an amended pASC in Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 75 summer 2017. The amended pASC was deemed complete by ODOE in September 2018. The ODOE and Energy Facility Siting Council (EFSC) reviewed Idaho Power’s application for compliance with state energy facility siting standards and released a Draft Proposed Order (DPO) for B2H on May 22, 2019. The EFSC reviewed the DPO findings, considered public testimony in its review and issued a Proposed Order on July 2, 2020. A contested case on the Proposed Order has been initiated and is being presided over by an EFSC-appointed Administrative Law Judge. Idaho Power currently expects the EFSC to issue a final order and site certificate in the second half of 2021. Permitting in Idaho will consist of a Conditional Use Permit issued by Owyhee County. Idaho Power expects construction to begin in 2023, with the line in service in 2026. Next Steps With the issuance of a Proposed Order, sufficient route certainty exists to begin preliminary construction activities. These activities include, but are not limited to, the following: • Geotechnical surveys • Detailed ground surveys (light detection and ranging [LiDAR] surveys) • Sectional surveys • Right-of-way (ROW) activities • Detailed design • Construction bid package development After the B2H project receives a Final Order and Site Certificate from EFSC, construction activities will commence. Construction activities include, but are not limited to, the following: • Long-lead material acquisition • Transmission line construction • Substation construction or upgrades The specific timing of each of the preliminary construction and construction activities will be coordinated with the project co-participants. Additional project information is available at boardmantohemingway.com. B2H Cost Treatment in the IRP The B2H transmission line project is modeled in AURORA as additional transmission capacity available for Idaho Power energy purchases from the Pacific Northwest. In general, for new supply-side resources modeled in the IRP process, surplus sales of generation are included as a cost offset in the AURORA portfolio modeling. Transmission wheeling revenues, however, are not included in AURORA calculations. To remedy this inconsistency, in the 2017 IRP, Idaho Power modeled incremental transmission wheeling revenue from non-native load customers as 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 76 Second Amended 2019 IRP an annual revenue credit for B2H portfolios. In this Second Amended 2019 IRP, Idaho Power continued to model expected incremental third-party wheeling revenues as a reduction in costs ultimately borne by retail customers. Idaho Power’s transmission assets are funded by native load customers, network customers, and point-to-point transmission wheeling customers based on a ratio of each party’s usage of the transmission system. Portfolios involving B2H result in a higher FERC transmission rate than portfolios without B2H. Although B2H provides significant incremental capacity, and will likely result in increased transmission sales, Idaho Power assumed flat sales volume as a conservative assumption. The flat sales volume, applied to the higher FERC transmission rate, results in the cost offset for IRP portfolios with B2H. In IRP modeling, Idaho Power assumes a 21.2-percent share of the direct expenses corresponding to Idaho Power’s interest in the B2H Permit Funding Agreement, plus its entire AFUDC cost, which equates to approximately $292 million. Idaho Power also included costs for local interconnection upgrades totaling $21 million. Gateway West The Gateway West transmission line project is a joint project between Idaho Power and PacifiCorp to build and operate approximately 1,000 miles of new transmission lines from the planned Windstar Substation near Glenrock, Wyoming, to the Hemingway Substation near Melba, Idaho. PacifiCorp has been designated the permitting project manager for Gateway West, with Idaho Power providing a supporting role. Figure 6.3 shows a map of the project identifying the authorized routes in the federal permitting process based on the BLM’s November 2013 ROD for segments 1 through 7 and 10. Segments 8 and 9 were further considered through a Supplemental EIS by the BLM. The BLM issued a ROD for segments 8 and 9 on January 19, 2017. In March 2017, this ROD was rescinded by the BLM for further consideration. On May 5, 2017, the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area Boundary Modification Act of 2017 (H.R. 2104) was enacted. H.R. 2104 authorized the Gateway West route through the Birds of Prey area that was proposed by Idaho Power and PacifiCorp and supported by the Idaho Governor’s Office, Owyhee County and certain other constituents. On April 18, 2018, the BLM released the Decision Record granting approval of a ROW for Idaho Power’s proposed routes for segments 8 and 9. In its 2017 IRP, PacifiCorp announced plans to construct a portion of the Gateway West Transmission Line in Wyoming. PacifiCorp has subsequently worked towards construction of the 140-mile segment between the planned Aeolus substation near Medicine Bow, Wyoming, and the Jim Bridger power plant near Point of Rocks, Wyoming. Idaho Power has a one-third interest in the segments between Midpoint and Hemingway, Cedar Hill and Hemingway, and Cedar Hill and Midpoint. Further, Idaho Power has sole interest in the segment between Borah and Midpoint (segment 6), which is an existing transmission line operated at 345 kV but constructed at 500 kV. Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 77 Figure 6.3 Gateway West map Gateway West will provide many benefits to Idaho Power customers, including the following: • Relieve Idaho Power’s constrained transmission system between the Magic Valley (Midpoint) and the Treasure Valley (Hemingway). Transmission connecting the Magic Valley and Treasure Valley is part of Idaho Power’s core transmission system, connecting two major Idaho Power load centers. • Provide the option to locate future generation resources east of the Treasure Valley. • Provide future load-service capacity to the Magic Valley from the Cedar Hill Substation. • Help meet the transmission needs of the future, including transmission needs associated with intermittent resources. Phase 1 of the Gateway West project is expected to provide up to 1,500 MW of additional transfer capacity between Midpoint and Hemingway. The fully completed project would provide a total of 3,000 MW of additional transfer capacity. Idaho Power has a one-third interest in these capacity additions. The Gateway West and B2H projects are complementary and will provide upgraded transmission paths from the Pacific Northwest across Idaho and into eastern Wyoming. More information about the Gateway West project can be found at gatewaywestproject.com. Nevada Transmission without North Valmy The Idaho–Nevada transmission path is co-owned by Idaho Power and NV Energy, with Idaho Power having full allocation of northbound capacity and NV Energy having full allocation of southbound capacity. Because the depth of the market and associated availability of resources is 6. Transmission Planning Idaho Power Company Page 78 Second Amended 2019 IRP not as certain for the Idaho–Nevada path as it is for the Idaho-Northwest path during summer peak hours, import availability will be evaluated in the aforementioned near-term analysis related to Valmy Unit 2. More detail on this study is provided in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section of Chapter 1 of this document. Transmission Assumptions in the IRP Portfolios Idaho Power makes resource location assumptions to determine transmission requirements as part of the IRP development process. Supply-side resources included in the resource stack typically require local transmission improvements for integration into Idaho Power’s system. Additional transmission improvement requirements depend on the location and size of the resource. The transmission assumptions and transmission upgrade requirements for incremental resources are summarized in Table 6.3. The assumptions about the geographic area where supply-side resources are developed determine the transmission upgrades required. Table 6.3 Transmission assumptions and requirements Resource Capacity (MW) Cost Assumption Notes Local Interconnection Assumptions Backbone Transmission Assumptions Biomass indirect—Anaerobic digester 35 Distribution feeder locations in the Magic Valley; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. $3.5 million of distribution feeder upgrades and $1.2 million in substation upgrades. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Geothermal (binary-cycle)—Idaho 35 Raft River area location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. Requires 5-mile, 138-kV line to nearby station with new 138-kV substation line terminal bay. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Hydro—Canal drop (seasonal) 1 Magic Valley location connecting to 46-kV sub-transmission or local distribution feeder. 4 miles of distribution rebuild at $150,000 per mile plus $100,000 in substation upgrades. No backbone upgrades required. Natural gas—SCCT frame F class (Idaho Power's peaker plants use this technology) 170 Mountain Home location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. 2-mile, 230-kV line required to connect to nearby station. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Natural gas—Reciprocating gas engine Wärtsilä 34SG 18 Mountain Home location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. Interconnecting at 230-kV Rattle Snake Substation. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Transmission lines under construction at the Hemingway substation. Idaho Power Company 6. Transmission Planning Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 79 Resource Capacity (MW) Cost Assumption Notes Local Interconnection Assumptions Backbone Transmission Assumptions Natural gas—CCCT (1x1) F class with duct firing 300 Langley Gulch location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. New Langley–Garnet 230-kV line with Garnet 230/138 transformer and Garnet 138-kV tap line. Bundle conductor on the Langley–Caldwell 230-kV line. Reconductor Caldwell–Linden. No additional backbone upgrades required. Natural gas—CCCT (1x1) F class with duct firing 300 Mountain Home location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. Assume 2-mile, 230-kV line required to connect to nearby station. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Natural gas—CCCT (2x1) F class 550 Build new facility south of Boise (assume Simco Road area). New 230-kV switching station with a 22-mile 230-kV line to Boise Bench Substation. Connect the 230-kV Danskin Power Plant to Hubbard line in-and-out of the new station. Rebuild Rattle Snake to DRAM 230-kV line, rebuild Boise Bench to DRAM 230-kV line, rebuild Micron to Boise Bench 138-kV line. Natural gas—CHP 35 Location in Treasure Valley. 1-mile tap to existing 138-kV line and new 138-kV source substation. No backbone upgrades required. Nuclear—SMR 50 Tie into Antelope 230-kV transmission substation; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources east of Boise. Two 2-mile, 138-kV lines to interconnect to Antelope Substation. New 138-kV terminal at Antelope Substation. New 55-mile 230-kV line from Antelope to Brady Substation. New 230-kV terminal at Brady Substation. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Pumped storage—New upper reservoir and new generation/ pumping plant 100 Anderson Ranch location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. 18-mile, 230-kV line to connect to Rattle Snake Substation. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Solar PV—Utility-scale 1-axis tracking 30 Magic Valley location; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. 1-mile, 230-kV line and associated stations equipment. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. Wind—Idaho 100 Location within 5 miles of Midpoint Substation; displaces equivalent MW of portfolio resources in same region. 5-mile, 230-kV transmission from Midpoint Substation to project site. Assigns pro-rata share for transmission upgrades identified for resources east of Boise. 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 80 Second Amended 2019 IRP 7. PLANNING PERIOD FORECASTS The IRP process requires Idaho Power to prepare numerous forecasts and estimates, which can be grouped into four main categories: 1. Load forecasts 2. Generation forecast for existing resources 3. Natural gas price forecast 4. Resource cost estimates The load and generation forecasts—including supply-side resources, DSM, and transmission import capability—are used to estimate surplus and deficit positions in the load and resource balance. The identified deficits are used to develop resource portfolios evaluated using financial tools and forecasts. The following sections provide details on the forecasts prepared as part of the 2019 IRP. A more detailed discussion on these topics is included in Appendix A—Sales and Load Forecast. Load Forecast Each year, Idaho Power prepares a forecast of sales and demand of electricity using the company’s electrical T&D network. This forecast is a product of historical system data and trends in electricity usage along with numerous external economic and demographic factors. Idaho Power has its annual peak demand in the summer, with peak loads driven by irrigation pumps and air conditioning (A/C) in June, July, and August. Historically, Idaho Power’s growth rate of the summertime peak-hour load has exceeded the growth of the average monthly load. Both measures are important in planning future resources and are part of the load forecast prepared for the 2019 IRP. The expected-case average energy (average load) and expected peak-hour demand forecast represent Idaho Power’s most probable outcome for load requirements during the planning period. In addition, Idaho Power prepares other probabilistic load forecasts that address the load variability associated with abnormal weather and economic scenarios. The expected, or median, case forecast for system load growth is determined by summing the load forecasts for individual classes of service, as described in Appendix A—Sales and Load Forecast. For example, the expected annual average system load growth of 1.0 percent (over the period 2019 through 2038) is comprised of a residential load growth of 1.1 percent, a commercial load growth of 1.1 percent, an irrigation load growth of 0.8 percent, an industrial load growth of 0.6 percent, and an additional firm load growth of 1.2 percent. Chobani plant near Twin Falls, Idaho. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 81 The number of residential customers in Idaho Power’s service area is expected to increase 1.7 percent annually from 464,670 at the end of 2018 to nearly 649,000 by the end of the planning period in 2038. Growth in the number of customers within Idaho Power’s service area, combined with an expected declining consumption per customer, results in a 1.1-percent average annual residential load-growth rate over the forecast term. Significant factors that influenced the outcome of the 2019 IRP load forecast include, but are not limited to, the following: • Weather plays a primary role in the load forecast on a monthly and seasonal basis. In the expected case load forecast of energy and peak-hour demand, Idaho Power assumes average temperatures and precipitation over a 30-year meteorological measurement period (i.e., normal climatology). Probabilistic variations of weather are also analyzed. • The economic forecast used for the 2019 IRP reflects the continued expansion of the Idaho economy in the near-term and reversion to the long-term trend of the service area economy. Customer growth was at a near standstill until 2012, but since then acceleration of net migration and business investment has resulted in renewed positive activity. Idaho has been the fastest growth rate state in the US in terms of population in both the 2017 and 2018 measurement periods. Going into 2017, customer additions have approached sustainable growth rates experienced prior to the housing bubble (2000 to 2004) and are expected to continue. • Conservation impacts, including DSM energy efficiency programs, codes and standards, and other naturally occurring efficiencies, are integrated into the sales forecast. These impacts are expected to continue to reduce use per customer over much of the forecast period. Impacts of demand response programs (on peak) are accounted for in the load and resource balance analysis within supply-side planning (i.e., are treated as a supply-side peaking resource). • There continues to be significant uncertainty associated with the industrial and special contract sales forecasts due to the number of parties that contact Idaho Power expressing interest in locating operations within Idaho Power’s service area, typically with an unknown magnitude of the energy and peak-demand requirements. The expected-case load forecast reflects only those industrial customers that have made a sufficient and significant binding investment indicating a commitment of the highest probability of locating in the service area. The large numbers of prospective businesses that have indicated an interest in locating in Idaho Power’s service area but have not made sufficient commitments are not included in the current sales and load forecast. • The electricity price forecast used to prepare the sales and load forecast in the 2019 IRP reflects the additional plant investment and variable costs of integrating the resources identified in the 2017 IRP preferred portfolio. When compared to the electricity price forecast used to prepare the 2017 IRP sales and load forecast, the 2019 IRP price forecast has higher future prices. The retail prices are slightly higher throughout the planning period which can impact the sales forecast, a consequence of the inverse relationship between electricity prices and electricity demand. 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 82 Second Amended 2019 IRP Weather Effects The expected-case load forecast assumes average temperatures and precipitation over a 30-year meteorological measurement period, or normal climatology. This implies a 50-percent chance loads will be higher or lower than the expected-case load forecast due to colder-than-normal or hotter-than-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal or drier-than-normal precipitation. Since actual loads can vary significantly depending on weather conditions, additional scenarios for an increased load requirement were analyzed to address load variability due to abnormal weather—the 70th- and 90th-percentile load forecasts. Seventieth-percentile weather means that in 7 out of 10 years, load is expected to be less than forecast, and in 3 out of 10 years, load is expected to exceed the forecast. Ninetieth-percentile load has a similar definition with a 1-in-10 likelihood the load will be greater than the forecast. Idaho Power's operating results fluctuate seasonally and can be adversely affected by changes in weather conditions and climate. Idaho Power's peak electric power sales are bimodal over a year, with demand in Idaho Power's service area peaking during the summer months. Currently, summer months exhibit a reliance on the system for cooling load in tandem with requirements for irrigation pumps. A secondary peak during the winter months also occurs driven primarily by colder temperatures and heating. As Idaho Power has become a predominantly summer peaking utility, timing of precipitation and temperature can impact which of those months demand on the system is greatest. Idaho Power tests differing weather probabilities hinged on a 30-year normal period. A more detailed discussion of the weather based probabilistic scenarios and seasonal peaks is included in Appendix A—Sales and Load Forecast. Weather conditions are the primary factor affecting the load forecast on a monthly or seasonal basis. During the forecast period, economic and demographic conditions also influence the load forecast. Economic Effects Numerous external factors influence the sales and load forecast that are primarily economic and demographic in nature. Moody’s Analytics serves as the primary provider for these data. The national, state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and county economic and demographic projections are tailored to Idaho Power’s service area using an in-house economic database. Specific demographic projections are also developed for the service area from national and local census data. Additional data sources used to substantiate Moody’s data include, but are not limited to, the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Idaho Department of Labor, Woods & Poole, Construction Monitor, and Federal Reserve economic databases. The state of Idaho had the highest (or tied) growth rate of any state in the US for both 2017 and 2018. The number of households in Idaho is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.3 percent during the forecast period, with most of the population growth centered on the Boise City– Nampa MSA. The Boise MSA (or the Treasure Valley) is an area that encompasses Ada, Boise, Canyon, Gem, and Owyhee counties in southwestern Idaho. In addition to the number of households, incomes, employment, economic output, and electricity prices are economic components used to develop load projections. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 83 Idaho Power continues to manage a pipeline of prospective large load customers (over 1 MW)–both existing customers anticipating expansion and companies considering new investment in the state—that are attracted to Idaho’s positive business climate and low electric prices. Idaho Power’s business development strategy is focused on maximizing Idaho Power’s generation resources and infrastructure by attracting new business opportunities to our service area in both Idaho and Eastern Oregon. The business development team benchmarks Idaho Power’s service offerings against other utilities, partners with the states and communities to support local economic development strategies, and coordinates with large load customers engaged in a site selection process to locate in Idaho Power’s service area. The 2019 IRP average annual system load forecast reflects continued improvement in the service-area economy. The improving economic and demographic variables driving the 2019 forecast are reflected by a positive sales outlook throughout the planning period. Average-Energy Load Forecast Potential monthly average-energy use by customers in Idaho Power’s service area is defined by three load forecasts that reflect load uncertainty resulting from different weather-related assumptions. Figure 7.1 and Table 7.1 show the results of the three forecasts used in the 2019 IRP as annual system load growth over the planning period. There is an approximately 50-percent probability Idaho Power’s load will exceed the expected-case forecast, a 30-percent probability of load exceeding the 70th-percentile forecast, and a 10-percent probability of load exceeding the 90th-percentile forecast. The projected 20-year compound annual growth rate in the expected case forecast is 1.0 percent during the 2019 through 2038 period. The projected 20-year average compound annual growth rate in the 70th- and 90th-percentile forecasts is 1.0 percent over the 2019 through 2038 period. Figure 7.1 Average monthly load-growth forecast 700 1,000 1,300 1,600 1,900 2,200 2,500 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 aM W WA less Astaris Weather Adjusted Expected Case 70th Percentile 90th Percentile 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 84 Second Amended 2019 IRP Table 7.1 Load forecast—average monthly energy (aMW) Year Median 70th Percentile 90th Percentile 2019 1,833 1,878 1,939 2020 1,849 1,895 1,957 2021 1,876 1,922 1,985 2022 1,899 1,946 2,010 2023 1,923 1,970 2,035 2024 1,946 1,994 2,059 2025 1,972 2,021 2,087 2026 1,990 2,039 2,106 2027 2,008 2,057 2,125 2028 2,022 2,072 2,140 2029 2,048 2,098 2,167 2030 2,066 2,117 2,187 2031 2,084 2,136 2,206 2032 2,096 2,148 2,218 2033 2,117 2,169 2,241 2034 2,134 2,187 2,259 2035 2,154 2,208 2,280 2036 2,168 2,222 2,295 2037 2,194 2,249 2,322 2038 2,212 2,267 2,342 Growth Rate (2019–2038) 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Peak-Hour Load Forecast The average-energy load forecast, as discussed in the preceding section, is an integral component to the load forecast. The peak-hour load forecast is similarly integral. Peak-hour forecasts are expressed as a function of the sales forecast, as well as the impact of peak-day temperatures. The system peak-hour load forecast includes the sum of the individual coincident peak demands of residential, commercial, industrial, and irrigation customers, as well as special contracts. Idaho Power’s system peak-hour load record—3,422 MW—was recorded on Friday, July 7, 2017, at 5:00 p.m. Summertime peak-hour load growth accelerated in the previous decade as A/C became standard in nearly all new residential home construction and new commercial buildings. System peak demand slowed considerably in 2009, 2010, and 2011—the consequences of a severe recession that brought new home and new business construction to a standstill. Demand response programs operating in the summer have also been effective at reducing peak demand. The 2019 IRP load forecast projects annual peak-hour load to grow by nearly 50 MW per year throughout the planning period assuming a 1 in 20 (95th percentile) weather probability case on the day in which the annual peak-hour occurs. The peak-hour load forecast does not reflect the company’s demand response programs, which are accounted for in the load and resource balance in a manner similar to a supply-side resource. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 85 Idaho Power’s winter peak-hour load record is 2,527 MW, recorded on January 6, 2017, at 9:00 a.m., matching the previous record peak dated December 10, 2009, at 8:00 a.m. Historical winter peak-hour load is much more variable than summer peak-hour load. The winter peak variability is due to peak-day temperature variability in winter months, which is far greater than the variability of peak-day temperatures in summer months. Figure 7.2 and Table 7.2 summarize three forecast outcomes of Idaho Power’s estimated annual system peak load—median, 90th percentile, and 95th percentile. As an example, the 95th-percentile forecast uses the 95th-percentile peak-day average temperature to determine monthly peak-hour demand. Alternative scenarios are based on their respective peak-day average temperature probabilities to determine forecast outcomes. Figure 7.2 Peak-hour load-growth forecast (MW) Table 7.2 Load forecast—peak hour (MW) Year Median 90th Percentile 95th Percentile 2018 (Actual) 3,392 3,392 3,392 2019 3,479 3,610 3,634 2020 3,528 3,659 3,683 2021 3,576 3,707 3,731 2022 3,627 3,757 3,782 2023 3,677 3,808 3,832 2024 3,732 3,863 3,887 2025 3,780 3,911 3,935 2026 3,825 3,956 3,980 2027 3,870 4,001 4,026 2028 3,918 4,048 4,073 2029 3,966 4,097 4,121 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 86 Second Amended 2019 IRP Year Median 90th Percentile 95th Percentile 2030 4,012 4,143 4,167 2031 4,058 4,189 4,213 2032 4,103 4,234 4,258 2033 4,146 4,277 4,301 2034 4,193 4,324 4,348 2035 4,242 4,372 4,397 2036 4,291 4,422 4,446 2037 4,340 4,471 4,495 2038 4,388 4,519 4,544 Growth Rate (2019–2038) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% The median or expected case peak-hour load forecast predicts that peak-hour load will grow from 3,479 MW in 2019 to 4,388 MW in 2038—an average annual compound growth rate of 1.2 percent. The projected average annual compound growth rate of the 95th-percentile peak forecast is also 1.2 percent. Additional Firm Load The additional firm-load category consists of Idaho Power’s largest customers. Idaho Power’s tariff requires the company to serve requests for electric service greater than 20 MW under a special-contract schedule negotiated between Idaho Power and each large-power customer. The contract and tariff schedule are approved by the appropriate state commission. A special contract allows a customer-specific cost-of-service analysis and unique operating characteristics to be accounted for in the agreement. Individual energy and peak-demand forecasts are developed for special-contract customers, including Micron Technology, Inc.; Simplot Fertilizer Company (Simplot Fertilizer); and the INL. These three special-contract customers comprise the entire forecast category labeled additional firm load. Micron Technology Micron Technology represents Idaho Power’s largest electric load for an individual customer and employs 5,900 to 6,000 workers in the Boise MSA. The company operates its research and development fabrication facility in Boise and performs a variety of other activities, including product design and support; quality assurance (QA); systems integration; and related manufacturing, corporate, and general services. Micron Technology’s electricity use is a function of the market demand for their products. Simplot Fertilizer This facility named the Don Plant is located just outside Pocatello, Idaho. The Don Plant is one of four fertilizer manufacturing plants in the J.R. Simplot company’s Agribusiness Group. Vital to fertilizer production at the Don Plant is phosphate ore mined at Simplot’s Smoky Canyon Mine on the Idaho–Wyoming border. According to industry standards, the Don Plant is rated as Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 87 one of the most cost-efficient fertilizer producers in North America. In total, J.R. Simplot company employees over 3,500 workers throughout its locations. INL INL is one of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) national laboratories and is the nation’s lead laboratory for nuclear energy research, development, and demonstration. The DOE, in partnership with its contractors, is focused on performing research and development in energy programs and national defense. Much of the work to achieve this mission at INL is performed in government-owned and leased buildings on the Research and Education Campus in Idaho Falls, Idaho, and on the INL Site, located approximately 50 miles west of Idaho Falls. INL is recognized as a critical economic driver and important asset to the state of Idaho and is the fifth largest employer in the state of Idaho with an estimated 4,100 employees. Generation Forecast for Existing Resources Hydroelectric Resources Idaho Power uses two primary models to develop future flows for the IRP. The Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) is used to determine surface-water flows, and the Enhanced Snake Plain Aquifer Model (ESPAM) is used to determine the effect of various aquifer management practices on Snake River reach gains. The two models are used in combination to produce a normalized hydrologic record for the Snake River Basin from 1928 through 2009. The record is normalized to account for specified conditions relating to Snake River reach gains, water-management facilities, irrigation facilities, and operations. The 50th-, 70th-, and 90th-percentile modeled stream flows are derived from the normalized hydrologic record. Further discussion of flow modeling for the 2019 IRP is included in Appendix C—Technical Appendix. Streamflow trends in the upper Snake River Basin have been in decline for several years. Those declines are mirrored in documented declines in the ESPA. Water supply increased in 2016 and a significant runoff in 2017 resulted in Snake River flows at the King Hill gage exceeding 32,000 cfs (average peak 22,900 cfs). Water conditions in 2016 and 2017 allowed for large volumes of water to be diverted to aquifer recharge operations. The large runoff event in 2017 also resulted in a significant natural recharge event. Since 2015, water levels have improved throughout much of the ESPA. Improvement was noted in reach gains in 2016 and 2017; however, 2015 had near- record lows for some gaged springs. The increases are significant, but reach gains remain below long-term historic median flows. A water management practice affecting Snake River stream flows involves the release of water to augment flows during salmon outmigration. Various federal agencies involved in salmon C.J. Strike Dam near Mountain Home, Idaho. 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 88 Second Amended 2019 IRP migration studies have, in recent years, supported efforts to shift delivery of flow augmentation water from the Upper Snake River and Boise River basins from the traditional months of July and August to the spring months of April, May, and June. The objective of the streamflow augmentation is to more closely mimic the timing of naturally occurring flow conditions. Reported biological opinions indicate the shift in water delivery is most likely to take place during worse-than-median water years. Because worse-than-median water is assumed in the IRP, and because of the importance of July as a resource-constrained month, Idaho Power continues to incorporate the shifted delivery of flow augmentation water from the Upper Snake River and Boise River basins for the IRP. Augmentation water delivered from the Payette River Basin is assumed to remain in July and August. Additionally, flow augmentation shortages in the upper Snake River Basin are filled from the Boise River Basin if adequate water is available. Monthly average generation for Idaho Power’s hydroelectric resources is calculated with a generation model developed internally by Idaho Power. The generation model treats the projects upstream of the HCC as ROR plants. The generation model mathematically manages reservoir storage in the HCC to meet the remaining system load while adhering to the operating constraints on the level of Brownlee Reservoir and outflows from the Hells Canyon project. For peak-hour analysis, a review of historical operations was performed to yield relationships between monthly energy production and achieved one-hour peak generation. The projected peak-hour capabilities for the IRP were derived to be consistent with the observed relationships. A representative measure of the streamflow condition for any given year is the volume of inflow to Brownlee Reservoir during the April-to-July runoff period. Figure 7.3 shows historical April-to-July Brownlee inflow as well as modeled Brownlee inflow for the 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles. The historical record demonstrates the variability of inflows to Brownlee Reservoir. The modeled inflows include reductions related to declining base flows in the Snake River and projected future management practices. As noted previously in this section, these declines are assumed to continue through the planning period. Figure 7.3 Brownlee inflow volume historical and modeled percentiles 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Historical 50th Percentile 70th Percentile 90th Percentile Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 89 Climate Change Idaho Power recognizes the need to assess the impacts a changing climate may have on our resource portfolio and adaptively manage changing conditions. Idaho Power stays current on the rapidly developing climate change research in the Pacific Northwest. In 2018, two federal agency reports were issued on the potential impacts of climate change. The Fourth National Climate Assessment10 and the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC)11, Second Edition, Part 1 report addressed water availability in the Pacific Northwest under multiple climate change and response scenarios. Both reports highlighted the uncertainty related to future climate projections. However, most of the model projections show warming temperatures and increased precipitation into the future. The studies showed the natural hydrograph could see lower summer base flows, an earlier shift of the peak runoff, higher winter baseflows, and an overall increase in annual natural flow volume. Idaho Power hydrogeneration facilities are at the lower end of a highly managed river system. Numerous reservoirs, diversions, and consumptive uses have resulted in changes to the timing of the natural hydrograph. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power performed a climate change analysis using datasets resulting from the RMJOC, Second Edition, Part 1 report to determine the impacts to the regulated streamflow through our system. Idaho Power used the University of Washington’s modeled natural flow (hydro.washington.edu/CRCC/) and the SRPM to develop an average regulated streamflow into Brownlee Reservoir under projected future climates. The analysis included the evaluation of results from numerous general circulation models. The key findings of this analysis showed the following: 1. Reservoir regulation from systems above Idaho Power significantly dampens the effects of a potential shift in timing of natural runoff. 2. On average, July through January regulated streamflow is unaffected, February through May regulated streamflow shows an increase, and June shows a decrease in streamflow. 3. Most models analyzed agree in showing an average annual increase in streamflow volume. Coal Resources In the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power continued to analyze exiting from coal units before the end of their depreciable lives. The coal units continue to deliver generating capacity and energy during high-demand periods and/or during periods having high wholesale-electric market prices. Within the coal fleet, the Jim Bridger plant provides recognized flexible ramping capability enabling the company to demonstrate ramping preparedness required of EIM participants. Despite the system reliability benefits, the economics of coal plant ownership and operation remain challenging because of frequent low wholesale-electric market prices coupled with the need for capital investments for environmental retrofits. Moreover, the evaluation of exiting from coal unit 10 nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/ 11 bpa.gov/p/Generation/Hydro/hydro/cc/RMJOC-II-Report-Part-I.pdf 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 90 Second Amended 2019 IRP participation is consistent with the company’s expressed glide path away from coal and long-term goal to provide 100-percent clean energy by 2045. Boardman The 2019 IRP assumes Idaho Power exits its share of the Boardman plant at year-end 2020. This date is the result of an agreement reached between the ODEQ and PGE related to compliance with regional-haze regulations on particulate matter, SO2, and NOx emissions; the agreement stipulates that coal-fired operations will cease at the plant by year-end 2020. Jim Bridger The four Jim Bridger units are assumed to reach the end of their depreciable lives in 2034. Units 1 and 2 currently require selective catalytic reduction (SCR) investment in 2021 and 2022 for continued unrestricted operations through 2034. The SCR investments on units 1 and 2 are not currently planned or included in the IRP analysis. PacifiCorp has submitted an application to the State of Wyoming for a Regional Haze Reassessment, which could provide an alternative to SCR installation on units 1 and 2. In the AURORA-based LTCE modeling used to develop the 24 resource portfolios in the 2019 IRP, it was assumed that the Jim Bridger units could be selected for exit dates before 2034. The AURORA modeling included the costs of continued capital investment and accelerating the remaining book value of a unit identified for early exit to the year of exit. Additionally, an estimate of Bridger Coal Company costs was made based on the volume of coal burned, and if the burn was below the base mine plan a cost adder was included. The shared facilities costs are not included in the early unit exit decisions nor are SCR investments in units 1 and 2. The endogenous modeling of possible early exit dates was subject to the following guidelines intended to reflect a feasible exit: • Unit 1—exit from participation 2022 through 2034 • Unit 2—exit from participation 2026 through 2034 • Unit 3—exit from participation 2028 through 2034 • Unit 4—exit from participation 2030 through 2034 The Jim Bridger units provide system reliability benefits, particularly related to the company’s flexible ramping capacity needs for EIM participation and reliable system operations. The need for flexible ramping is simulated in the AURORA modeling as previously described. However, the AURORA modeling indicates removal of Jim Bridger units needs to be carefully evaluated because of potential heightened concerns about meeting regulating reserve requirements following their removal. North Valmy The 2019 IRP assumes Idaho Power ceases participation in North Valmy Unit 1 at year-end 2019 and Unit 2 in year-end 2022 and no later than year-end 2025. Exit from Unit 2 earlier than 2025 was evaluated as part of the AURORA capacity expansion modeling, but the AURORA model did not select Unit 2 for exit earlier than 2025 in any portfolio. However, when subsequent Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 91 manual portfolio adjustment was conducted by moving the exit date for Valmy Unit 2 forward to 2022, the AURORA hourly costing analysis demonstrated that the present value portfolio costs can be reduced. While these results indicate a 2022 exit date for Valmy Unit 2 is possible, Idaho Power believes it is appropriate to undertake further Valmy Unit 2 analysis in the coming months before committing to 2022 as optimal exit timing. To determine the optimal exit timing for Valmy Unit 2, Idaho Power will conduct a near-term analysis that will explore exit economics and the provision of reliable, affordable power to customers. More detail on this study is provided in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section of Chapter 1 of this document. Natural Gas Resources Idaho Power owns and operates four natural gas-fired SCCTs and one natural gas-fired CCCT, having combined nameplate capacity of 762 MW. The SCCT units are typically operated during peak-load events in the summer and winter. With respect to peaking capacity, the SCCT units are assumed capable of producing an on-demand peak capacity of 416 MW, which is recognized by the AURORA model as contributing to the planning margin in capacity expansion modeling. Idaho Power’s CCCT, Langley Gulch, is typically dispatched more frequently and for longer runtimes than the SCCTs because of the higher efficiency rating of a CCCT. Langley Gulch is forecast to contribute 300 MW of on-demand peaking capacity available as contribution to the planning margin in capacity expansion modeling. Natural Gas Price Forecast To make continued improvements to the natural gas price forecast process, and to provide greater transparency, Idaho Power began researching natural gas forecasting practices used by electric utilities and local distribution companies in the region. Table 7.3 provides excerpts from IRP and avoided-cost filings, as an indication of the approaches used to forecast natural gas prices. Table 7.3 Utility peer natural gas price forecast methodology Utility Gas Price Forecast Methodology Rocky Mountain Power 2017 IRP The October 2016 natural gas Official Forward Price Curve (OFPC), which was used in the 2017 IRP, was based on an expert third-party long-term natural gas forecast issued August 2016. Avista Electric 2017 IRP Avista uses forward market prices and a forecast from a prominent energy industry consultant to develop the natural gas price forecast for this IRP. Avista Gas 2016 Natural Gas IRP Avista reviewed several price forecasts from credible sources and created a blended price forecast to represent an expected price strip. Portland General Electric (PGE) 2016 IRP PGE derived the Reference Case natural gas forecast from market forward prices for the period 2017 through 2020 and the Wood Mackenzie long-term fundamental forecast for the period 2022 through 2035. A transition from the market price curve to Wood Mackenzie’s long-term forecast is made by linearly interpolating for one year (2021). Northwest Natural 2018 Oregon IRP NW Natural’s 2018 IRP natural gas forecast is of monthly prices developed by a third-party provider (IHS) based on market fundamentals. Cited source extracted from IHS Global Gas service and was developed as part of an ongoing subscription. 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 92 Second Amended 2019 IRP Utility Gas Price Forecast Methodology Intermountain Gas 2017 IRP 2017–2021 forecast based on an average of three five-year price forecasts for the Alberta Energy Company (AECO), Rockies, and Sumas pricing points from three different energy companies based on the May 26, 2016 market close. Cascade Natural Gas Company 2018 Oregon IRP Cascade’s long-term planning price forecast is based on a blend of current market pricing along with long-term fundamental price forecasts. The fundamental forecasts include Wood Mackenzie, EIA, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), Bentek (a S&P Global company), and the Financial Forecast Center’s long-term price forecasts. Based on the methodologies employed by Idaho Power’s peer utilities, as well as feedback received during IRPAC meetings for the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power made the decision to enlist the service of a well-known third-party vendor as the source for the IRP planning case natural gas price forecast. Idaho Power invited a representative of the third-party vendor to present to the IRPAC on October 11, 2018. The Platts forecast information below was presented by the vendor representative at the October 2018 IRPAC meeting. The third-party vendor uses the following inputs/techniques to develop its gas price forecast: • Supply/demand balancing network model of the North American gas market • Oil and natural gas rig count data • Model pricing for the entire North American grid • Model production, transmission, storage, and multi-sectoral demand every month • Individual models of regional gas supply/demand, pipelines, rate zones and structures, interconnects, capacities, storage areas and operations (160 supply areas, 272 pipelines, 444 storage areas, and 694 demand centers) and combines these models into an integrated North American gas grid • Solves for competitive equilibrium, which clears supply and demand markets as well as markets for transportation and storage The following industry events helped inform the third-party 2018 natural gas price forecast used in the IRP analysis: • Greater regionalization, with Gulf (export) dominance waning • Status of North American major gas basins • The emergence of the Northeast as a self-sufficient region, with a risk of periodic surplus and a chronic need for additional markets • Texas/Southeast flow reversal to accommodate growing exports Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 93 • The absence of policy-driven demand growth (carbon), causing the Midwest to act as a “way station” for surplus gas • The western US approaches saturation on policy limits, requiring West-coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to lift demand • Projected slowing of ramp in Appalachian pipeline use • Northeast prices increasingly influenced by supply competition and energy transition, rather than pipe congestion • The Permian basin may be overwhelmed by too much takeaway pipe if all projects are built • Congestion and competition depress upstream prices in the West, while California ultimately competed with the premium Gulf • Ample Midwest supply caps Chicago prices, while resource depletion supports the in-basin price of Rockies supply • West-to-East disconnect in Canada, means that growth opportunities for Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin are tied to LNG aspirations • Rising midstream costs have enabled diverse sources of supply to compete Figure 7.4 North American major gas basins To verify the reasonableness of the third-party vendor’s forecast, Idaho Power compared the forecast to Moody’s Analytics and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas futures settlements. Based on a thorough examination of the forecasting methodology and comparative review of the other sources (i.e., Moody’s and NYMEX), Idaho Power concluded that the third-party vendor’s natural gas forecast is appropriate for the planning case forecast in the 2019 IRP. 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 94 Second Amended 2019 IRP The third-party vendor’s 2018 Henry Hub long-term forecast, after applying a basis differential and transportation costs from Sumas, Washington (the location from which most of the supply is procured to fuel the company’s fleet of natural gas generation in Idaho), served as the planning case forecast of fueling costs for existing and potential new natural gas generation on the Idaho Power system. Natural Gas Transport Ensuring pipeline transportation capacity will be available for future natural gas-fired generation needs will require the reservation of pipeline capacity before a prospective resource’s in-service date. Idaho Power believes that turnback pipeline capacity from Stanfield, Oregon to Idaho could serve the need for natural gas-fired generating capacity for up to 600 megawatts (MW) of installed nameplate capacity. Williams’ Northwest Pipeline has recently entered into a similar capacity reservation contract with a shipper where a discount was offered (a 10-cent rate versus full tariff of 39 cents) for the first five years before the implementation of full tariff rate for the remainder of the term. Using this information, a rate was applied reflective of the capacity reservation contract rate discounted until the in-service date, and full tariff thereafter. Idaho Power projects that additional natural gas-fired generating capacity beyond an incremental 600 MW of capacity would require an expansion of Northwest Pipeline from the Rocky Mountain supply region to Idaho. The 600 MW limit, beyond which pipeline expansion is required, is derived from Northwest Pipeline’s estimation of expected turnback capacity (existing contracts expiring without renewal) from Stanfield, Oregon to Idaho as presented in Northwest Pipeline’s fall 2019 Customer Advisory Board meeting. Besides the uncertainty of acquiring capacity on existing pipeline beyond that necessary for 600 MW of incremental natural gas-fired generating capacity, a pipeline expansion would provide diversification benefits from the current mix of firm transportation composed of 60 percent from British Columbia, 40 percent from Alberta, and no firm capacity from the Rocky Mountain supply region. In response to a request for a cost estimate for a pipeline expansion from the Rocky Mountain supply region, Northwest Pipeline calculated a levelized cost for a 30-year contract of $1.39/ Million British Thermal Units (MMBtu)/day. Idaho Power applied this rate to potential natural gas-fired generation types with an assumption of high capacity factor (100 percent capacity coverage), medium capacity factor (33 percent), and low capacity factor (25 percent). For the medium and low capacity factor plants, it is assumed that transportation would be procured in the short-term capacity release market, or through delivered supply transactions to cover 100 percent of the requirements on any given day. Analysis of IRP Resources The electrical energy sector has experienced considerable transformation during the past 10 to 15 years. VERs, such as wind and solar, have markedly expanded their market penetration during this period, and through this expansion have affected the wholesale market for electrical energy. The expansion of VERs has also highlighted the need for flexible capacity resources to provide balancing. A consequence of the expanded penetration of VERs is periodic energy oversupply alternating with energy undersupply. Flexible capacity is primarily provided by dispatchable thermal resources (coal- and natural gas-fired), hydro resources, and energy storage resources. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 95 For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power continues to analyze resources based on cost, specifically the cost of a resource to provide energy and peaking capacity to the system. In addition to the capability to provide flexible capacity, the system attributes analyzed include the capability to provide dispatchable peaking capacity, non-dispatchable (i.e., coincidental) peaking capacity, and energy. Importantly, energy in this analysis is considered to include not only baseload-type resources but also resources, such as wind and solar, that provide relatively predictable output when averaged over long periods (i.e., monthly or longer). The resource attribute analysis also designates those resources whose intermittent production gives rise to the need for flexible capacity. Resource Costs—IRP Resources Resource costs are compared using two cost metrics: levelized cost of capacity (fixed) (LCOC) and LCOE. These metrics are discussed later in this section. Resources are evaluated from a Total Resource Cost (TRC) perspective. Idaho Power recognizes the TRC is not in all cases the realized cost to the company. Examples for which the TRC is not the realized cost include energy efficiency resources where the company incentivizes customer investment and supply- side resources whose production is purchased under long-term contract (e.g., PPA and PURPA). Nevertheless, Idaho Power views the evaluation of resource options using the TRC as allowing a like-versus-like comparison between resources, and consequently in the best interest of Idaho Power customers. In resource cost calculations, Idaho Power assumes potential IRP resources have varying economic lives. Financial analysis for the IRP assumes the annual depreciation expense of capital costs is based on an apportionment of the capital costs over the entire economic life of a given resource. The levelized costs for the various resource alternatives analyzed include capital costs, O&M costs, fuel costs, and other applicable adders and credits. The initial capital investment and associated capital costs of resources include engineering development costs, generating and ancillary equipment purchase costs, installation costs, plant construction costs, and the costs for a transmission interconnection to Idaho Power’s network system. The capital costs also include an allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC) (capitalized interest). The O&M portion of each resource’s levelized cost includes general estimates for property taxes and property insurance premiums. The value of RECs is not included in the levelized cost estimates but is accounted for when analyzing the total cost of each resource portfolio in AURORA. Net levelized costing for the bundled energy efficiency resource options modeled in the IRP are provided in Chapter 5. The net levelized costs for energy efficiency resource options include annual program administrative and marketing costs, an annual incentive, and annual participant costs. Specific resource cost inputs, fuel forecasts, key financing assumptions, and other operating parameters are provided in Appendix C—Technical Appendix. LCOC—IRP Resources The annual fixed revenue requirements in nominal dollars for each resource are summed and levelized over the assumed economic life and are presented in terms of dollars per kW of 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 96 Second Amended 2019 IRP nameplate capacity per month. Included in these LCOCs are the initial resource investment and associated capital cost and fixed O&M estimates. As noted earlier, resources are considered to have varying economic lives, and the financial analysis to determine the annual depreciation of capital costs is based on an apportioning of the capital costs over the entire economic life. The LCOC values for the potential IRP resources are provided in Figure 7.5. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 97 Figure 7.5 Levelized capacity (fixed) costs in 2019 dollars12 12 Levelized capacity costs are expressed in terms of dollars per kW of installed capacity per month. The expression of these costs in terms of kW of peaking capacity can have significant effect, particularly for VERs (e.g., wind) having peaking capacity significantly less than installed capacity. $85 $56 $46 $44 $34 $33 $31 $22 $21 $20 $20 $19 $17 $16 $15 $15 $13 $13 $11 $11 $10 $5 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 Geothermal (30 MW) Small Modular Nuclear (60 MW) Storage—Li Battery 8 hour (5 MW) Biomass (35 MW) Solar PV—Rooftop (.005 MW) Solar PV—Rooftop Commercial (.005 MW) Storage—Zn Battery 4 hour (5 MW) Wind ID (100 MW) Wind Common (100 MW) Wind WY (100 MW) Storage—Li Battery 4 hour (5 MW) Storage—Pumped-Hydro (500 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (70 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (60 MW) Solar PV—Targeted Siting for Grid Benefit (0.5 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (50 MW) CCCT (1x1) F Class (300 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking (40 MW) Reciprocating Gas Engine (55.5 MW) SCCT—Frame F Class (170 MW) Reciprocating Gas Engine (111.1 MW) Boardman to Hemingway (350 MW) $ per kW/Month Cost of Capital Fixed O&M 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 98 Second Amended 2019 IRP LCOE—IRP Resources Certain resource alternatives carry low fixed costs and high variable operating costs, while other alternatives require significantly higher capital investment and fixed operating costs but have low (or zero) operating costs. The LCOE metric represents the estimated annual cost (revenue requirements) per MWh in nominal dollars for a resource based on an expected level of energy output (capacity factor) over the economic life of the resource. The nominal LCOE assuming the expected capacity factors for each resource is shown in Figure 7.6. Included in these costs are the capital cost, non-fuel O&M, fuel, integration costs for wind and solar resources, and wholesale energy for B2H. The cost of recharge energy for storage resources is not included in the graphed LCOE values. The LCOE is provided assuming a common on-line date of 2023 for all resources and based on Idaho Power specific financing assumptions. Idaho Power urges caution when comparing LCOE values between different entities or publications because the valuation is dependent on several underlying assumptions. The use of the common on-line date five years into the IRP planning period allows the LCOE analysis to capture projected trends in resource costs. The LCOE graphs also illustrate the effect of the Investment Tax Credit on solar-based energy resources, including coupled solar-battery systems. Idaho Power emphasizes that the LCOE is provided for informational purposes and is essentially a convenient summary metric reflecting the approximate cost competitiveness of different generating technologies. However, the LCOE is not an input into AURORA modeling performed for the IRP. When comparing LCOEs between resources, consistent assumptions for the computations must be used. The LCOE metric is the annual cost of energy over the life of a resource converted into an equivalent annual annuity. This is like the calculation used to determine a car payment; however, in this case the car payment would also include the cost of gasoline to operate the car and the cost of maintaining the car over its useful life. An important input into the LCOE calculation is the assumed level of annual energy output over the life of the resource being analyzed. The energy output is commonly expressed as a capacity factor. At a higher capacity factor, the LCOE is reduced because of spreading resource fixed costs over more MWh. Conversely, lower capacity-factor assumptions reduce the MWh over which resource fixed costs are spread, resulting in a higher LCOE. For the portfolio cost analysis, resource fixed costs are annualized over the assumed economic life for each resource and are applied only to the years of output within the IRP planning period, thereby accounting for end effects. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 99 Figure 7.6 Levelized cost of energy (at stated capacity factors) in 2023 dollars 11% 5% 23% 11% 21% 16% 15% 15% 15% 88% 21% 90% 18% 35% 35% 85.0% 45% 22% 26% 60% 26.0% 33% ($25)$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 $400 $425 Storage—Zn Battery 4 hour (5 MW) SCCT—Frame F Class (170 MW) Storage—Li Battery 8 hour (5 MW) Storage—Li Battery 4 hour (5 MW) Solar PV—Rooftop (.005 MW) Storage—Pumped-Hydro (500 MW) Reciprocating Gas Engine (55.5 MW) Reciprocating Gas Engine (111.1 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (70 MW) Geothermal (30 MW) Solar PV—Rooftop Commercial (.005 MW) Small Modular Nuclear (60 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (60 MW) Wind ID (100 MW) Wind Common (100 MW) Biomass (35 MW) Wind WY (100 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (50 MW) Solar PV—Targeted Siting for Grid Benefit (0.5 MW) CCCT (1x1) F Class (300 MW) Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking (40 MW) Boardman to Hemingway (350 MW) Cost of Capital Non-Fuel O&M Fuel Offsets Wholesale Energy %=Capacity Factor 7. Planning Period Forecasts Idaho Power Company Page 100 Second Amended 2019 IRP Resource Attributes—IRP Resources While the cost metrics described in this section are informative, caution must be exercised when comparing costs for resources providing different attributes to the power system. For the LCOC metric, this critical distinction arises because of differences for some resources between installed capacity and peaking capacity. Specifically, for intermittent renewable resources, an installed capacity of 1 kW equates to an on-peak capacity of less than 1 kW. For example, Idaho wind is estimated to have an LCOC of $23 per month per kW of installed capacity.13 However, assuming wind delivers peaking capacity equal to 5 percent of installed capacity, the LCOC ($23/month/kW) converts to $460 per month per kW of peaking capacity. For the LCOE metric, the critical distinction between resources arises because of differences for some resources with respect to the timing at which MWh are delivered. For example, wind and biomass resources have similar LCOEs. However, the energy output from biomass generating facilities tends to be delivered in a steady and predictable manner during peak-loading periods. Conversely, wind tends to less dependably deliver during the high-value peak-loading periods; in effect, the energy delivered from wind tends to be of lesser value than that delivered from biomass, and because of this difference caution should be exercised when comparing LCOEs for these resources. In recognition of differences between resource attributes, potential IRP resources for the 2019 IRP are classified based on their attributes. The following resource attributes are considered in this analysis: • Intermittent renewable—Renewable resources, such as wind and solar, characterized by intermittent output and causing an increased need for resources providing balancing or flexibility • Dispatchable capacity-providing—Resources that can be dispatched as needed to provide capacity during periods of peak-hour loading or to provide output during generally high-value periods • Non-dispatchable (coincidental) capacity-providing—Resources whose output tends to naturally occur with moderate likelihood during periods of peak-hour loading or during generally high-value periods • Balancing/flexibility-providing—Fast-ramping resources capable of balancing the variable output from intermittent renewable resources • Energy-providing—Resources producing relatively predictable energy when averaged over long time periods (i.e., monthly or longer) Table 7.4 provides classification of potential IRP resources with respect to the above attributes. The table also provides cost information on the estimated size potential and scalability for each resource. 13 The units of the denominator can be expressed in reverse order from the cost estimates provided in Figure 7.5 without mathematically changing the cost estimate. Idaho Power Company 7. Planning Period Forecasts Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 101 Table 7.4 Resource attributes Resource Intermittent Renewable Dispatchable Capacity-Providing Non-Dispatchable (Coincidental) Capacity-Providing14 Balancing/ Flexibility-Providing Energy-Providing Size Potential Biomass—Anaerobic Digester   Scalable up to about 50 MW B2H    (200 MW Oct–March, 500 MW April–Sept) Demand Response  Scalable up to 50 MW Energy Efficiency   Scalable up to achievable potential Geothermal   Scalable up to about 50 MW CCCT (1x1)    300 MW increments SCCT—Frame F Class   170 MW increments Reciprocating Gas Engine    55.5 MW increments Small Modular Nuclear    60 MW increments Solar PV—Rooftop    Scalable Solar PV—Utility-Scale 1-Axis Tracking    Scalable Solar PV—Targeted Siting for Grid Benefit    Scalable up to 10 MW Solar PV—AC Coupled with Lithium Battery    Scalable Storage—Pumped Hydro    500 MW increments Storage—Lithium Battery   Scalable Wind (Wyoming/Idaho)   Scalable 14 The peaking capacity impact in MW for resources providing coincidental peaking capacity is expected to be less than installed capacity in MW. For solar resources, the coincidental peaking capacity impact diminishes with increased installed solar capacity on system, as described in Chapter 4. 8. Portfolios Idaho Power Company Page 102 Second Amended 2019 IRP 8. PORTFOLIOS Prior to commencing modeling for this Second Amended 2019 IRP, Idaho Power conducted a four-step review of IRP model inputs, system settings and specifications, and model verification and validation. The objective of the review was to ensure accuracy of the company’s modeling methods, processes, and, ultimately, the IRP results. The review was a preliminary step prior to modeling for the Second Amended 2019 IRP. As a result, the sections below describe work that began where the review process concluded. For further detail on the IRP review process, refer to the 2019 IRP Review Report. Capacity Expansion Modeling For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power used the LTCE capability of AURORA to produce WECC- optimized portfolios under various future conditions for natural gas prices and carbon costs. It is important to note that although the logic of the LTCE model optimizes resource additions based on the performance of the WECC as a whole, the resource portfolios produced by the LTCE and examined in this IRP are specific to Idaho Power. In other words, the term “WECC-optimized” refers to the LTCE model logic rather than the footprint of the portfolios being examined. Based on this definition, the WECC-optimized portfolios discussed in this document refer to the addition of supply-side and demand-side resources for Idaho Power’s system and exits from current coal-generation units. The selection of new resources in the WECC-optimized portfolios maintains sufficient reserves as defined in the model. To ensure the AURORA-produced WECC-optimized portfolios provide the least-cost, least-risk future specific to the company’s customers, a subset of top-performing WECC portfolios was manually adjusted with the objective of further reducing portfolio costs specific to the Idaho Power system. This manual process is discussed further in the sections that follow. Planning Margin The 2019 IRP uses the LTCE capability of the AURORA model to develop portfolios compiled of different resource combinations. The model selects portfolios based on standards, policies, and resources needed- and does so in the least-cost manner. Idaho Power selected a 50th percentile hourly load forecast for the Idaho Power area and a 15 percent peak-hour planning margin to develop a 20-year, WECC optimized resource portfolios under a range of futures. The WECC portfolio includes a specific set of new resources and resource exits to reliably serve Idaho Power’s load over the planning timeframe. Each portfolio is constrained by the peak-hour capacity planning margin and hourly flexibility requirements. As noted above, manual refinements to top-performing WECC optimized resource portfolios are used to ensure the least- cost, least-risk option has been identified specific to Idaho Power’s service area. Several factors influenced Idaho Power’s decision to move to a 15 percent peak-hour planning margin in the 2019 IRP. The use of a percentage-based planning margin is a good fit with the use and logic in the AURORA model’s LTCE functionality used in portfolio development. First, it is Idaho Power Company 8. Portfolios Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 103 consistent with the NERC’s N-1 Reserve Margin criteria.15 Second, it is similar to the methodologies employed by Idaho Power’s regional peer utilities for capacity planning.16 To validate the change from the prior IRP methodology, Idaho Power compared the 2017 IRP’s 95th percentile peak-hour capacity, including the addition of 330 MW of capacity benefit margin (CBM) to the 50th percentile peak-hour forecast with a 15 percent planning margin as used in the 2019 IRP. As shown in Figure 8.1, the two methods do not result in significant differences. The series composed of the 95th percentile peak-hour value plus the 330 MW CBM does not include operating reserve obligations, which would be approximately 200 MW for a system load of 3,600 MW and higher for growing system loads. Figure 8.1 2017 versus 2019 IRP planning margin comparison (MW) Portfolio Design Overview The AURORA LTCE process develops future portfolios under varying future conditions for natural gas prices and carbon costs, selecting resources while applying planning margins and regulating reserve constraints, all with the objective of finding the least-cost solution. The future resources available possess a wide range of operating characteristics, and development and environmental attributes. The impact to system reliability and portfolio costs of these resources depend on future assumptions. Each portfolio consists of a combination of resources derived from the LTCE process that should enable Idaho Power to supply cost-effective electricity to customers over the 20-year planning period. 15 nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ri/Pages/PlanningReserveMargin.aspx 16 PacifiCorp 13-percent target planning margin (2017 IRP page 10), PGE 17 percent reserves planning margin (2016 IRP page 116), and Avista 14 percent planning margin (2017 IRP 6-1). 4,001 4,055 4,112 4,170 4,229 4,292 4,347 4,399 4,451 4,505 4,561 4,614 4,666 4,719 4,768 4,822 4,878 4,935 4,991 5,047 3,634 3,683 3,731 3,782 3,832 3,887 3,935 3,980 4,026 4,073 4,121 4,167 4,213 4,258 4,301 4,348 4,397 4,446 4,495 4,544 3,964 4,013 4,061 4,112 4,162 4,217 4,265 4,310 4,356 4,403 4,451 4,497 4,543 4,588 4,631 4,678 4,727 4,776 4,825 4,874 3,500 3,700 3,900 4,100 4,300 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 50th plus 15%95th Percentile 95th plus 330 MW 8. Portfolios Idaho Power Company Page 104 Second Amended 2019 IRP The use of an LTCE model that optimizes portfolio buildouts for the entire WECC region led the company to develop additional portfolios to ensure that it had reasonably identified an optimal solution specific to its customers. To accomplish this, a subset of top-performing WECC- optimized portfolios were manually adjusted with the objective of further reducing Idaho Power-specific portfolio costs while maintaining reliability. This method is described in greater detail in Chapter 9. The portfolios were then evaluated for operational, environmental, and qualitative considerations. The evaluation of the resources and portfolios culminate in an action plan that sets the stage for Idaho Power to economically and effectively prepare for the system needs of the future. Previous IRP portfolio development included a concurrent evaluation of resource characteristics: quantitative and qualitative measures and risks when selecting a resource for inclusion in a specific portfolio for a future planning scenario. These portfolios were developed under low hydro and high peak forecast percentiles while considering the combined qualitative risks and various resource characteristics. Using the AURORA LTCE process in portfolio design has some improvements compared to the prior resource selection methodology. The AURORA portfolio development process is more precise in using the defined resource characteristics and established quantitative requirements associated with those resources. Examples include increasing regulation requirements with solar generation additions or maintaining a peak hour planning margin and applying hourly regulating reserve requirements in the economic selection and timing of resource additions and retirements. Additionally, the LTCE process allowed the company and stakeholders to evaluate a relatively large number of portfolios relative to prior IRPs. In 2017, for example, the IRP examined 12 portfolios that were manually selected. However, in the 2019 IRP, the company evaluated 48 total portfolios, 24 of which were developed by the LTCE model, and 24 that were developed during the manual refinement process. Regulating Reserve Idaho Power characterized regulating reserve rules as part of its 2018 study of VER integration. To develop these rules for the VER study, Idaho Power analyzed one year of 1-minute time-step historical data for customer load, wind production, and solar production (December 2016 to November 2017). Based on this analysis, the company developed rules for bidirectional regulating reserve that adequately positioned dispatchable capacity to balance variations in load, wind, and solar while maintaining compliance with NERC’s reliability standard.17 The bidirectional regulating reserve was designated RegUp for the unloaded dispatchable capacity held to balance undersupply situations (i.e., supply less than load) and RegDn for loaded dispatchable capacity held to balance oversupply situations (i.e., supply exceeding load). For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power developed approximations for the VER study’s regulating reserve rules. These approximations are necessary because a 20-year period is simulated for the IRP (as opposed to the single year of a VER study), and to allow the evaluation of portfolios 17 NERC BAL-001-2 (nerc.com/pa/Stand/Project%202010141%20%20Phase%201%20of%20Balancing%20Authority%20R e/BAL-001-2_Background_Document_Clean-20130301.pdf) Idaho Power Company 8. Portfolios Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 105 containing varying amounts of VER generating capacity (i.e., the VER-caused regulating reserve requirements are calculable). The approximations express the RegUp and RegDn as dynamic and seasonal percentages of hourly load, wind production, and solar production. The approximations used for the IRP are given in tables 8.1 and 8.2. For each hour of the AURORA simulations, the dynamically determined regulating reserve is the sum of that calculated for each individual element. Table 8.1 RegUp approximation—percentage of hourly load MW, wind MW, and solar MW RegUp Winter1 Spring2 Summer3 Fall4 Load 8% 11% 7% 9% Wind 38% 44% 48% 49% Solar 69% 47% 53% 66% 1Winter: December, January, February 2Spring: March, April, May 3Summer: June, July, August 4Fall: September, October, November Table 8.2 RegDn approximation—percentage of hourly load MW, wind MW, and solar MW RegDn Winter1 Spring2 Summer3 Fall4 Load 18% 29% 21% 29% Wind 0% 0% 0% 0% Solar 33% 0% 0% 0% 1Winter: December, January, February 2Spring: March, April, May 3Summer: June, July, August 4Fall: September, October, November The RegDn rules for the VER study for wind and solar were expressed in terms of percentage of headroom above forecast production. For example, for a system having 300 MW of on-line solar capacity and forecast production for a given hour at 200 MW, the VER analysis found the percentage of 100 MW of headroom (300 to 200 MW) necessary to maintain system reliability. Given the substantial variations in VER generating capacity between portfolios, and temporally (i.e., year-to-year) within portfolios, it was impractical to approximate the RegDn regulating reserve for wind and solar production, except for the winter season for solar. It is emphasized that the regulating reserve levels used in the 2019 IRP are approximations intended to reflect generally the amount of set-aside capacity needed to balance load and wind and solar production while maintaining system reliability. The precise definition of regulating reserve levels is more appropriately the focus of a study designed specifically to assess the impacts and costs associated with integrating VERs. Framework for Expansion Modeling Idaho Power’s LTCE modeling was performed under three natural gas price forecasts and four carbon price forecasts to develop optimized resource portfolios for a range of possible future conditions. 8. Portfolios Idaho Power Company Page 106 Second Amended 2019 IRP Natural Gas Price Forecasts Idaho Power used the adjusted Platts 2018 Henry Hub natural gas price forecast as the planning case forecast in the 2019 IRP. Idaho Power also developed portfolios under two additional gas price forecasts: 1) the 2018 EIA Reference Case and 2) the 2018 EIA Low Oil and Gas (LOG) case.18 Carbon Price Forecasts Idaho Power developed portfolios under four carbon price scenarios for the 2019 IRP shown in Figure 8.2: 1. Zero Carbon Costs—assumes there will be no federal or state legislation that would require a tax or fee on carbon emissions. 2. Planning Case Carbon Cost—is based on a carbon price forecast from a Wood Mackenzie report19 released in June 2018. The carbon cost forecast assumes a price of $2/ton beginning in 2028 and increases to $22 per ton by the end of the IRP planning horizon. A key assumption in the report is that carbon costs would be regulated under a federal program and no state program is envisioned. 3. Generational Carbon Cost—is EPA’s estimate of the social cost of carbon from 2016.20 The social or generational cost of carbon is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change impacts and includes, among other things, changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and changes in energy system costs. The generational carbon cost forecast assumes a price of $55.73 per ton starting in 2020 and increases to $101.16 per ton by the end of the IRP planning horizon. 4. High Carbon Costs—is based on the California Energy Commission’s Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) “Revised 2017 IEPR GHG Price Projections.”21 Idaho Power used the carbon price stream from the high price (low consumption) scenario and, for the 2019 IRP, assume carbon costs would begin in 2022 under a federal program. No state program is envisioned. The high carbon cost forecast assumes a price of $28.65 per ton starting in 2022 and increases to $107.87 per ton by the end of the IRP planning horizon. 18 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018, February 2018: eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018.pdf 19 “North America power & renewables long term outlook: Charting the likely energy transition page—the ‘Federal Carbon’ case.” 20 epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-12/documents/social_cost_of_carbon_fact_sheet.pdf 21 efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=222145 Idaho Power Company 8. Portfolios Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 107 Figure 8.2 Carbon Price Forecast Because the AURORA LTCE can evaluate generation units for economic retirement, Idaho Power provided baseline retirement assumptions in the AURORA model. The baseline retirement dates for Idaho Power’s coal-fired generation is year-end 2034 for all Jim Bridger units. Any changes to these retirement dates would be determined through the portfolio modeling process. Table 8.3 shows the 12 planned non-B2H portfolio designs resulting from the natural gas and carbon price forecasts. Table 8.3 Non-B2H portfolio reference numbers Non-B2H Zero Carbon Planning Carbon Generational Carbon High Carbon Planning Gas 1 2 3 4 EIA Reference Gas 5 6 7 8 EIA LOG Gas 9 10 11 12 To evaluate the B2H project in the AURORA model, Idaho Power reproduced the same set of 12 portfolios with the inclusion of the B2H transmission line as a resource. Table 8.4 shows the planned 12 B2H portfolio designs resulting from the natural gas and carbon price futures. Table 8.4 B2H portfolio reference numbers B2H Zero Carbon Planning Carbon Generational Carbon High Carbon Planning Gas 13 14 15 16 EIA Reference Gas 17 18 19 20 EIA LOG Gas 21 22 23 24 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 20 3 1 20 3 2 20 3 3 20 3 4 20 3 5 20 3 6 20 3 7 20 3 8 20 3 9 20 4 0 $/ T o n Zero Planning High Generational 8. Portfolios Idaho Power Company Page 108 Second Amended 2019 IRP WECC-Optimized Portfolio Design Results The AURORA LTCE’s model generated 24 different portfolios using all the assumptions described earlier. The 12 Non-B2H portfolios are shown in Figure 8.3, while the 12 B2H portfolios are shown in Figure 8.4. The details and timing of additional resources in the 24 WECC-optimized portfolios are included in Appendix C—Technical Appendix. Figure 8.3 WECC-optimized portfolios 1 through 12 (non-B2H portfolios), capacity additions/reductions (MW) (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 Portfolio 6 Portfolio 7 Portfolio 8 Portfolio 9 Portfolio 10 Portfolio 11 Portfolio 12 Zero Carbon PlanningCarbon GenerationalCarbon High Carbon Zero Carbon PlanningCarbon GenerationalCarbon High Carbon Zero Carbon PlanningCarbon GenerationalCarbon High Carbon PLANNING GAS MID GAS HIGH GAS Thermal Wind Solar Battery Nuclear Biomass Demand Response Early Coal Exit Coal Exit Existing Coal Exit Idaho Power Company 8. Portfolios Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 109 Figure 8.4 WECC-optimized portfolios 13 through 24 (B2H portfolios), capacity additions/reductions (MW) Manually Built Portfolios Based on stakeholder feedback received following the Amended 2019 IRP process, Idaho Power adjusted its methodology for selecting WECC-optimized portfolios for manual adjustment. Previously, Idaho Power selected four WECC-optimized portfolios (two B2H and two non-B2H) that represented the best combinations of least cost and least risk. Stakeholders noted, however, that this selection process resulted in a group of similar portfolios in terms of resource selection and timing. An alternate approach was suggested: Choose a wider range of WECC-optimized portfolios for manual selection. Idaho Power adopted this approach for this Second Amended 2019 IRP. To ensure a wider range of base portfolios for manual optimization, Idaho Power selected six starting points (rather than four in the Amended 2019 IRP) based on 12 WECC-optimized portfolios for manual adjustment. The six starting-point portfolios (three with B2H and three without) reflect a more diverse array of portfolios, in terms of resource amounts, timing, and type. Idaho Power began this selection process by grouping WECC-optimized portfolios into similar “buckets” based on resource selection, noting resource similarities in Portfolios 1 and 2, 3 and 4, and 11 and 12 in the non-B2H runs and in Portfolios 13 and 14, 15 and 16, and 23 and 24 in the B2H scenarios (see Figure 8.3 and Figure 8.4). These buckets aligned to tested future conditions—Planning Gas/Planning Carbon, Planning Gas/High Carbon, and High Gas/High Carbon (See Table 8.5). (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Portfolio 13 Portfolio 14 Portfolio 15 Portfolio 16 Portfolio 17 Portfolio 18 Portfolio 19 Portfolio 20 Portfolio 21 Portfolio 22 Portfolio 23 Portfolio 24 Zero Carbon PlanningCarbon GenerationalCarbon High Carbon Zero Carbon PlanningCarbon GenerationalCarbon High Carbon Zero Carbon PlanningCarbon GenerationalCarbon High Carbon PLANNING GAS MID GAS HIGH GAS MW B2H Thermal Wind Solar Battery Nuclear Biomass Demand Response Early Coal Exit Coal Exit Existing Coal Exit 8. Portfolios Idaho Power Company Page 110 Second Amended 2019 IRP Table 8.5 WECC-Optimized Portfolios Selected for Manual Adjustments Category B2H Portfolios Non-B2H Portfolios Planning Gas, Planning Carbon (PGPC) P(13), P(14) P(1), P(2) Planning Gas, High Carbon (PGHC) P(15), P(16) P(3), P(4) High Gas, High Carbon (HGHC) P(23), P(24) P(11), P(12) The first two categories (Planning Gas, Planning Carbon (PGPC) and Planning Gas, High Carbon (PGHC)) were based on the lowest cost portfolios from the WECC-optimization and the resources match more closely between portfolios. The High Gas, High Carbon (HGHC) category was added to determine whether a more optimal portfolio could be obtained when beginning with a different mix of flexibility resources (pumped hydro, biomass, and nuclear instead of natural gas). The selected portfolio categories reflect a wide range of gas and carbon futures and B2H and non-B2H alternatives, and it allowed for robust evaluation of portfolios for manual optimization, with the objective of further reducing Idaho Power-specific portfolio costs while maintaining reliability. Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 111 9. MODELING ANALYSIS Portfolio Cost Analysis Once the WECC-Optimized portfolios are created using the LTCE model, Idaho Power uses the AURORA electric market model as the primary tool for modeling resource operations and determining operating costs for the 20-year planning horizon. AURORA modeling results provide detailed estimates of wholesale market energy pricing and resource operation and emissions data. It should be noted that the Portfolio Cost Analysis is a step that occurs following the development of the resource buildouts through the LTCE model; the Portfolio Cost Analysis utilizes the resource buildouts from the LTCE model as an input. The LTCE and Portfolio Cost analyses cannot be performed simultaneously within the AURORA model due to the large computing requirements needed to perform the complex calculations inherent within the LTCE model. The AURORA software applies economic principles and dispatch simulations to model the relationships between generation, transmission, and demand to forecast market prices. The operation of existing and future resources is based on forecasts of key fundamental elements, such as demand, fuel prices, hydroelectric conditions, and operating characteristics of new resources. Various mathematical algorithms are used in unit dispatch, unit commitment, and regional pool-pricing logic. The algorithms simulate the regional electrical system to determine how utility generation and transmission resources operate to serve load. Portfolio costs are calculated as the NPV of the 20-year stream of annualized costs, fixed and variable, for each portfolio. The full set of financial variables used in the analysis is shown in Table 9.1. Each resource portfolio was evaluated using the same set of financial variables. Table 9.1 Financial assumptions Plant Operating (Book) Life Expected life of asset Discount rate (weighted average capital cost) 7.12% Composite tax rate 25.74% Deferred rate 21.30% Emission adder escalation rate 3.00% General O&M escalation rate 2.20% Annual property tax rate (% of investment) 0.49% B2H annual property tax rate (% of investment) 0.55% Property tax escalation rate 3.00% B2H property tax escalation rate 1.67% Annual insurance premium (% of investment) 0.03% B2H annual insurance premium (% of investment) 0.03% Insurance escalation rate 2.00% B2H insurance escalation rate 2.00% AFUDC rate (annual) 7.65% 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 112 Second Amended 2019 IRP The 24 WECC-optimized portfolios designed under the AURORA LTCE process were run through four different hourly simulations shown in Table 9.2. Table 9.2 AURORA hourly simulations Planning Carbon High Carbon Planning Gas X X High Gas X X The purpose of the AURORA hourly simulations is to compare how portfolios perform under scenarios different from the scenario assumed in their initial design. For example, a portfolio initially designed under Planning Gas and Planning Carbon should perform better relative to other portfolios under a Planning Gas and Planning Carbon price forecast than under a High Gas and High Carbon price forecast. The compiled results from the four hourly simulations, where only the pricing forecasts were changed, are shown in Table 9.3. Table 9.3 2019 IRP WECC-optimized portfolios, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) NPV ($ x 1000) Planning Gas, Planning Carbon High Gas, Planning Carbon Planning Gas, High Carbon High Gas, High Carbon Portfolio 1 $6,278,713 $7,153,154 $8,736,678 $9,802,332 Portfolio 2 $6,282,756 $7,174,552 $8,577,425 $9,695,929 Portfolio 3 $6,868,094 $7,341,418 $8,188,333 $8,757,756 Portfolio 4 $6,909,873 $7,351,820 $8,172,789 $8,709,946 Portfolio 5 $6,407,151 $7,051,991 $8,983,091 $9,967,976 Portfolio 6 $6,295,887 $6,987,393 $8,852,891 $9,853,177 Portfolio 7 $7,230,980 $7,589,273 $8,284,393 $8,678,643 Portfolio 8 $7,086,109 $7,447,426 $8,260,812 $8,684,372 Portfolio 9 $6,626,104 $6,994,787 $8,645,465 $9,326,708 Portfolio 10 $6,866,736 $7,105,974 $8,635,942 $9,196,065 Portfolio 11 $7,867,263 $7,897,257 $8,921,579 $9,057,434 Portfolio 12 $7,700,882 $7,866,914 $8,508,580 $8,662,707 Portfolio 13 $6,276,926 $7,189,464 $8,839,672 $9,941,809 Portfolio 14 $6,281,733 $7,198,597 $8,715,087 $9,879,956 Portfolio 15 $6,748,522 $7,487,819 $8,179,919 $9,014,114 Portfolio 16 $6,674,015 $7,381,746 $8,062,506 $8,860,820 Portfolio 17 $6,339,272 $7,101,059 $9,025,272 $10,126,056 Portfolio 18 $6,371,297 $7,104,072 $9,012,603 $10,082,271 Portfolio 19 $6,985,582 $7,574,547 $8,268,054 $8,931,658 Portfolio 20 $6,679,355 $7,381,868 $8,051,005 $8,841,573 Portfolio 21 $6,472,912 $7,065,637 $8,896,703 $9,815,932 Portfolio 22 $6,505,881 $7,071,269 $8,885,581 $9,795,651 Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 113 NPV ($ x 1000) Planning Gas, Planning Carbon High Gas, Planning Carbon Planning Gas, High Carbon High Gas, High Carbon Portfolio 23 $7,348,046 $7,732,620 $8,633,344 $9,137,650 Portfolio 24 $6,957,458 $7,665,019 $8,391,091 $9,237,524 Figure 9.1 takes the information in Table 9.3 and compares all 24 portfolios on a two-axis graph that shows NPV cost under the planning scenario and the four-scenario standard deviation in NPV costs. The y-axis displays the NPV values under Planning Gas and Planning Carbon, and the x-axis displays the four-scenario standard deviation in NPV costs for the four scenarios shown in Table 9.3. Note that all cost scenarios are given equal weight in determining the four-scenario standard deviation. Idaho Power does not believe that each future has an equal likelihood, but for the sake of simplicity presented the results assuming equal likelihood to provide an idea of the variance in NPV costs associated with the four modeled scenarios. P13 is the lowest-cost portfolio under Planning Gas and Planning Carbon, as can be seen in Figure 9.1 and Table 9.3, although its four-scenario standard deviation is higher than some other portfolios. Conversely, P12 has the lowest four-scenario standard deviation, but the second highest expected cost under Planning Gas and Planning Carbon. Portfolios plotted along the lower and left edge of Figure 9.1 represent the efficient frontier in this graph of NPV cost versus cost standard deviation. Moving vertically, portfolios plotting above the efficient frontier are considered to have equivalent cost variance, but higher expected cost. Moving horizontally, portfolios plotting to the right of the efficient frontier are considered to have equivalent expected cost, but greater potential cost variance. 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 114 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 9.1 NPV cost versus cost variance Portfolio 1Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 Portfolio 6 Portfolio 7 Portfolio 8 Portfolio 9 Portfolio 10 Portfolio 11 Portfolio 12 Portfolio 13 Portfolio 14 Portfolio 15 Portfolio 16 Portfolio 17 Portfolio 18 Portfolio 19 Portfolio 20 Portfolio 21 Portfolio 22 Portfolio 23 Portfolio 24 $6,000,000 $6,200,000 $6,400,000 $6,600,000 $6,800,000 $7,000,000 $7,200,000 $7,400,000 $7,600,000 $7,800,000 $8,000,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 Pla n n i n g C a s e N P V ( $ x 1 0 0 0 ) Risk Variance ($ x 1000) Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 115 As indicated in Table 8.5, the starting point of the manual optimization process was determined from the following WECC-optimized portfolios: • Planning Gas, Planning Carbon: P(1), P(2), P(13), P(14) • Planning Gas, High Carbon: P(3), P(4), P(15), P(16) • High Gas, High Carbon: P(11), P(12), P(23), P(24) The portfolios identified in the first two categories are close to the line drawn in Figure 9.1 and represent combinations of low cost and low risk. The other points were included in the HGHC category to determine whether a more optimal portfolio could be obtained starting with different flexibility resources (pumped hydro, biomass, and nuclear instead of natural gas). Manually Built Portfolios Manual adjustments focused first on the evaluation of Jim Bridger coal unit exit scenarios. In the following tables, Jim Bridger exit dates for the first three scenarios are fixed across the gas and carbon assumptions and provide a comparison of Bridger exit dates. Scenario 1 exits all four units by 2030. Scenario 2 exits the second unit in 2028 but keeps the third and fourth units until 2034. Scenario 3 exits the second unit in 2026 and keeps the third and fourth units until 2034. Scenario 4 exit dates were adjusted differently to further optimize the results. Table 9.4 provides a summary of the Jim Bridger exit scenarios. Table 9.4 Jim Bridger exit scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 2022 2022 2022 Varied* 2026 2028 2026 Varied* 2028 2034 2034 Varied* 2030 2034 2034 Varied* * The Jim Bridger exit timing for Scenario 4 was selected based on learnings from the first three scenarios and gas and carbon assumptions. The following guiding principles were used in the manual optimization process for the first three scenarios: • The same modeling constraints used within the AURORA modeling software during the WECC optimization were applied to the manual optimization (e.g., Bridger unit exits could not be earlier than the dates identified in Scenario 1) • The same resource types and approximate resource allocations were used as identified in the WECC-optimized LTCE portfolios • Resources identified for WECC optimization were deferred and reduced where possible while maintaining a planning margin of 15 percent • No carbon-emitting resources were added to the high gas, high carbon portfolios 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 116 Second Amended 2019 IRP Scenario 4 was completed as an attempt to further refine the results to lower portfolio costs while maintaining a similar level of reliability. The following guiding principles were applied in addition to the ones used for the first three scenarios: • Large-scale CCCT units can in some cases be replaced with more scalable reciprocating gas engines, allowing a phased approach to adding flexible resources which can reduce costs • Demand response can be accelerated and/or expanded to defer some types of resources • Depending on the portfolio builds, accelerating solar and battery resources and alternating with flexible resources can result in portfolio savings • Solar plus battery resources were often selected before solar-only resources because they have a higher contribution to peak The resulting 24 manual builds (six categories with four scenarios each) were evaluated using the AURORA model to determine their NPV using the same gas and carbon pricing forecasts as the initial WECC results shown in Table 9.3. The results of the 24 manual builds are shown in Table 9.5. As a final step, Valmy Unit 2’s exit date was accelerated to 2022 as a sensitivity to test the viability of an earlier exit. The final results of the manual build process are shown in Table 9.7. Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 117 Table 9.5 2019 IRP manually built portfolios, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) NPV ($ x 1000) Planning Gas, Planning Carbon High Gas, Planning Carbon Planning Gas, High Carbon High Gas, High Carbon PGPC (1) $6,279,509 $7,426,379 $8,233,137 $9,440,332 PGPC (2) $6,273,071 $7,246,081 $8,490,274 $9,625,390 PGPC (3) $6,284,277 $7,277,944 $8,431,678 $9,560,285 PGPC (4) $6,279,772 $7,259,024 $8,558,682 $9,716,348 PGHC (1) $6,390,311 $7,319,067 $8,032,346 $9,067,148 PGHC (2) $6,442,048 $7,144,213 $8,264,118 $9,181,798 PGHC (3) $6,453,111 $7,181,508 $8,242,129 $9,151,410 PGHC (4) $6,294,814 $7,359,094 $8,091,963 $9,277,557 HGHC (1) $7,469,519 $7,934,725 $8,635,143 $9,153,185 HGHC (2) $6,987,986 $7,521,331 $8,665,974 $9,374,281 HGHC (3) $7,043,235 $7,575,393 $8,654,276 $9,326,503 HGHC (4) $6,855,447 $7,783,286 $8,595,740 $9,639,967 PGPC B2H (1) $6,239,229 $7,436,314 $8,389,315 $9,634,337 PGPC B2H (2) $6,267,445 $7,285,695 $8,662,735 $9,863,352 PGPC B2H (3) $6,267,257 $7,327,131 $8,650,207 $9,858,607 PGPC B2H (4) $6,247,768 $7,457,533 $8,453,137 $9,705,863 PGHC B2H (1) $6,342,373 $7,377,938 $8,113,174 $9,290,421 PGHC B2H (2) $6,326,907 $7,223,445 $8,356,141 $9,518,984 PGHC B2H (3) $6,325,327 $7,260,956 $8,336,880 $9,508,616 PGHC B2H (4) $6,231,882 $7,378,575 $8,244,490 $9,576,761 HGHC B2H (1) $6,627,133 $7,560,819 $8,321,638 $9,377,658 HGHC B2H (2) $6,551,203 $7,370,092 $8,519,476 $9,591,880 HGHC B2H (3) $6,549,962 $7,402,601 $8,507,236 $9,581,960 HGHC B2H (4) $6,505,943 $7,500,370 $8,259,364 $9,394,863 As discussed previously, tables 9.3 and 9.5 utilized the WECC buildout that each portfolio was designed under, which is shown in figures 8.3 and 8.4. The 24 WECC buildouts are unique in terms of the resources that were selected for each buildout, as well as the timing of each resource. In order to compare portfolios using the same WECC buildout, the company inserted its manual portfolios into four distinct WECC buildouts: 1) Planning Gas, Planning Carbon; 2) High Gas, Planning Carbon; 3) Planning Gas, High Carbon; 4) High Gas, High Carbon. This comparison allows the company to focus on differences specific to Idaho Power’s portfolio design, rather than differences stemming from future WECC buildout scenarios. The results are shown in Table 9.6. 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 118 Second Amended 2019 IRP Table 9.6 2019 IRP manually built portfolios, WECC buildout comparison, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) NPV ($ x 1000) Planning Gas, Planning Carbon High Gas, Planning Carbon Planning Gas, High Carbon High Gas, High Carbon Portfolio PGPC (1) $6,279,509 $7,411,931 $8,114,621 $9,345,007 Portfolio PGPC (2) $6,273,071 $7,236,437 $8,331,134 $9,504,866 Portfolio PGPC (3) $6,284,277 $7,269,646 $8,292,583 $9,443,642 Portfolio PGPC (4) $6,279,772 $7,238,655 $8,378,158 $9,552,907 Portfolio PGHC (1) $6,400,413 $7,334,372 $8,032,346 $9,083,275 Portfolio PGHC (2) $6,451,515 $7,164,818 $8,264,118 $9,205,845 Portfolio PGHC (3) $6,462,698 $7,201,220 $8,242,129 $9,176,938 Portfolio PGHC (4) $6,310,357 $7,363,283 $8,091,963 $9,237,188 Portfolio HGHC (1) $7,465,092 $7,907,690 $8,603,701 $9,153,185 Portfolio HGHC (2) $7,000,131 $7,508,566 $8,642,228 $9,374,281 Portfolio HGHC (3) $7,052,572 $7,564,816 $8,632,474 $9,326,503 Portfolio HGHC (4) $6,918,876 $7,819,991 $8,652,244 $9,639,967 Portfolio PGPC B2H (1) $6,239,229 $7,392,339 $8,091,379 $9,349,587 Portfolio PGPC B2H (2) $6,267,445 $7,248,819 $8,357,392 $9,563,648 Portfolio PGPC B2H (3) $6,267,257 $7,287,162 $8,339,846 $9,557,784 Portfolio PGPC B2H (4) $6,247,768 $7,401,560 $8,133,197 $9,386,236 Portfolio PGHC B2H (1) $6,384,339 $7,386,701 $8,113,174 $9,238,667 Portfolio PGHC B2H (2) $6,360,212 $7,232,682 $8,356,141 $9,460,037 Portfolio PGHC B2H (3) $6,358,018 $7,270,472 $8,336,880 $9,452,539 Portfolio PGHC B2H (4) $6,276,172 $7,379,348 $8,244,490 $9,478,369 Portfolio HGHC B2H (1) $6,688,060 $7,603,598 $8,339,690 $9,377,658 Portfolio HGHC B2H (2) $6,604,353 $7,410,535 $8,546,168 $9,591,880 Portfolio HGHC B2H (3) $6,603,227 $7,447,855 $8,528,960 $9,581,960 Portfolio HGHC B2H (4) $6,582,646 $7,563,134 $8,295,569 $9,394,863 The WECC buildout approaches provide a measure of how robust each portfolio is under the four futures evaluated. The best-performing B2H portfolios outperformed the best-performing non-B2H portfolios in the planning case (Planning Gas, Planning Carbon) in both approaches. Finally, for each of the four future gas and carbon scenarios, the company performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the cost, or value, associated with an earlier exit (year-end 2022) of Valmy Unit 2. As noted in the Nevada Transmission without North Valmy section of Chapter 6, the Company will be performing a near-term analysis related to Valmy Unit 2 to further investigate market depth and other factors associated with this transmission capacity. Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 119 These differentials were then applied to the portfolio costs in Table 9.6 to obtain the results detailed in Table 9.7. Table 9.7 2019 IRP Manually built portfolios with Valmy exit year-end 2022, NPV years 2019–2038 ($ x 1,000) NPV ($ x 1000) Planning Gas, Planning Carbon High Gas, Planning Carbon Planning Gas, High Carbon High Gas, High Carbon Portfolio PGPC (1) $6,277,779 $7,421,034 $8,109,662 $9,342,540 Portfolio PGPC (2) $6,271,341 $7,245,540 $8,326,175 $9,502,399 Portfolio PGPC (3) $6,282,547 $7,278,749 $8,287,624 $9,441,175 Portfolio PGPC (4) $6,278,042 $7,247,758 $8,373,199 $9,550,440 Portfolio PGHC (1) $6,398,683 $7,343,475 $8,027,387 $9,080,808 Portfolio PGHC (2) $6,449,785 $7,173,921 $8,259,159 $9,203,378 Portfolio PGHC (3) $6,460,968 $7,210,323 $8,237,170 $9,174,471 Portfolio PGHC (4) $6,308,627 $7,372,386 $8,087,004 $9,234,721 Portfolio HGHC (1) $7,463,362 $7,916,793 $8,598,742 $9,150,718 Portfolio HGHC (2) $6,998,401 $7,517,669 $8,637,269 $9,371,814 Portfolio HGHC (3) $7,050,842 $7,573,919 $8,627,515 $9,324,036 Portfolio HGHC (4) $6,917,146 $7,829,094 $8,647,285 $9,637,500 Portfolio PGPC B2H (1) $6,236,327 $7,400,616 $8,087,144 $9,346,611 Portfolio PGPC B2H (2) $6,264,543 $7,257,096 $8,353,157 $9,560,672 Portfolio PGPC B2H (3) $6,264,355 $7,295,439 $8,335,611 $9,554,808 Portfolio PGPC B2H (4) $6,244,866 $7,409,837 $8,128,962 $9,383,260 Portfolio PGHC B2H (1) $6,381,437 $7,394,978 $8,108,939 $9,235,691 Portfolio PGHC B2H (2) $6,357,310 $7,240,959 $8,351,906 $9,457,061 Portfolio PGHC B2H (3) $6,355,116 $7,278,749 $8,332,645 $9,449,563 Portfolio PGHC B2H (4) $6,274,442 $7,388,451 $8,239,531 $9,475,902 Portfolio HGHC B2H (1) $6,686,330 $7,612,701 $8,334,731 $9,375,191 Portfolio HGHC B2H (2) $6,602,623 $7,419,638 $8,541,209 $9,589,413 Portfolio HGHC B2H (3) $6,601,497 $7,456,958 $8,524,001 $9,579,493 Portfolio HGHC B2H (4) $6,580,916 $7,572,237 $8,290,610 $9,392,396 The PGPC B2H (1) portfolio outperforms the other portfolios in the planning case (Planning Gas, Planning Carbon) and ranks high in the Planning Gas, High Carbon case. Based on these results, the company is confident that the Preferred Portfolio detailed in Chapter 10 achieves the least-cost, least-risk objective of the IRP. Stochastic Risk Analysis The stochastic analysis assesses the effect on portfolio costs when select variables take on values different from their planning-case levels. Stochastic variables are selected based on the degree to 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 120 Second Amended 2019 IRP which there is uncertainty regarding their forecasts and the degree to which they can affect the analysis results (i.e., portfolio costs). The purpose of the analysis is to understand the range of portfolio costs across the full extent of stochastic shocks (i.e., across the full set of stochastic iterations) and how the ranges for portfolios differ. Idaho Power identified the following three variables for the stochastic analysis: 1. Natural gas price—Natural gas prices follow a log-normal distribution adjusted upward from the planning case gas price forecast, which is shown as the dashed line in Figure 9.2. Natural gas prices are adjusted upward from the planning case to capture upward risk in natural gas prices. The correlation factor used for the year-to-year variability is 0.65, which is based on historic values from 1997 through 2018. Figure 9.2 Natural gas sampling (Nominal $/MMBtu) $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 $/M M B t u Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 121 2. Customer load—Customer load follows a normal distribution and is adjusted around the planning case load forecast, which is shown as the dashed line in Figure 9.3 Figure 9.3 Customer load sampling (annual MWh) 3. Hydroelectric variability—Hydroelectric variability follows a log-normal distribution and is adjusted around the planning case hydroelectric generation forecast, which is shown as the black dashed line in Figure 9.4. The correlation factor used for the year-to- year variability is 0.80, which is based on historic values from 1971 through 2018. Figure 9.4 Hydro generation sampling (annual MWh) The three selected stochastic variables are key drivers of variability in year-to-year power-supply costs and therefore provide suitable stochastic shocks to allow differentiated results for analysis. Idaho Power created a set of 20 iterations based on the three stochastic variables (hydro condition, load, and natural gas price). The 20 iterations were developed using a Latin 15,000,000 16,000,000 17,000,000 18,000,000 19,000,000 20,000,000 21,000,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 MW h 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 MW h 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 122 Second Amended 2019 IRP Hypercube sampling rather than Monte Carlo. The Latin Hypercube design samples the distribution range with a relatively smaller sample size, allowing a reduction in simulation run times. Idaho Power then calculated the 20-year NPV portfolio cost for each of the 20 iterations for all 24 portfolios. The distribution of 20-year NPV portfolio costs for all 24 portfolios is shown in Figure 9.5. Figure 9.5 Portfolio stochastic analysis, total portfolio cost, NPV years 2019–2038 ($x 1,000) The horizontal axis on Figure 9.5 represents the portfolio cost (NPV) in millions of dollars, and the 24 portfolios are represented by their designation on the vertical axis. Each portfolio has 20 dots for the 20 different stochastic iterations scattered across different NPV ranges. The Xs designate the Planning Gas Planning Carbon scenario that was performed for each portfolio. The distribution of 20-year NPV portfolio costs for the set of 20 manually built portfolios is shown in Figure 9.6. Figure 9.6 Manually built portfolio stochastic analysis with Valmy exit year-end 2022, total portfolio cost, NPV years 2019–2038 ($x 1,000) $5,500,000 $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000 $7,500,000 $8,000,000 $8,500,000NPV ($ x 1000) Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 Portfolio 6 Portfolio 7 Portfolio 8 Portfolio 9 Portfolio 10 Portfolio 11 Portfolio 12 Portfolio 13 Portfolio 14 Portfolio 15 Portfolio 16 Portfolio 17 Portfolio 18 Portfolio 19 Portfolio 20 Portfolio 21 Portfolio 22 Portfolio 23 Portfolio 24 Portfolio PGPC (1) Portfolio PGPC (2) Portfolio PGPC (3) Portfolio PGPC (4) Portfolio PGHC (1) Portfolio PGHC (2) Portfolio PGHC (3) Portfolio PGHC (4) Portfolio HGHC (1) Portfolio HGHC (2) Portfolio HGHC (3) Portfolio HGHC (4) Portfolio PGPC B2H (1) Portfolio PGPC B2H (2) Portfolio PGPC B2H (3) Portfolio PGPC B2H (4) Portfolio PGHC B2H (1) Portfolio PGHC B2H (2) Portfolio PGHC B2H (3) Portfolio PGHC B2H (4) Portfolio HGHC B2H (1) Portfolio HGHC B2H (2) Portfolio HGHC B2H (3) Portfolio HGHC B2H (4) Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 123 The stochastic risk analysis, coupled with the portfolio cost analysis, assesses the portfolios’ relative exposure to significant cost drivers. The wide range of resulting portfolio costs evident in Table 9.7 and Figure 9.6 reflects the wide range of considered conditions for the cost drivers. The widely ranging costs are an indication that portfolio exposure to cost drivers is sufficiently evaluated. Further, the stochastic analysis suggests that changes in strong cost drivers do not shift the relative cost difference between portfolios significantly and thus does not favor one portfolio over another. Portfolio Emission Results CO2 emissions for all 24 portfolios were evaluated during the portfolio cost analysis. The results for all 24 portfolios are shown in Figure 9.7. Figure 9.7 is a stacked column that shows the year-to-year cumulative emissions for each portfolio’s projected generating resources. Figure 9.7 Estimated portfolio emissions from 2019–2038 - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 Po r t f o l i o 1 Po r t f o l i o 2 Po r t f o l i o 3 Po r t f o l i o 4 Po r t f o l i o 5 Po r t f o l i o 6 Po r t f o l i o 7 Po r t f o l i o 8 Po r t f o l i o 9 Po r t f o l i o 1 0 Po r t f o l i o 1 1 Po r t f o l i o 1 2 Po r t f o l i o 1 3 Po r t f o l i o 1 4 Po r t f o l i o 1 5 Po r t f o l i o 1 6 Po r t f o l i o 1 7 Po r t f o l i o 1 8 Po r t f o l i o 1 9 Po r t f o l i o 2 0 Po r t f o l i o 2 1 Po r t f o l i o 2 2 Po r t f o l i o 2 3 Po r t f o l i o 2 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 124 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 9.8 Estimated portfolio emissions from 2019–2038—manually built portfolios Qualitative Risk Analysis Major Qualitative Risks • Fuel Supply—All generating and transmission resources require a supply of fuel to provide electricity. The different resource types have different fuel supply risks. Renewable resources rely on uncertain future weather conditions to provide the fuel be it wind, sun or water. Weather can be variable and difficult to forecast accurately. Thermal resources like coal and natural gas rely on infrastructure to produce and transport fuel by rail or pipeline and include mining or drilling facilities. Infrastructure has several risks when evaluating resources. Infrastructure is susceptible to outages from weather, mechanical failures, labor unrest, etc. Infrastructure can be limited in its existing availability to increase delivery of fuel to a geographic area that limits the amount of a new resources dependent on the capacity constrained infrastructure. • Fuel Price Volatility—For plants needing purchased fuel, the fuel prices can be volatile and impact a plant’s economics and usefulness to our customers both in the short and long term. Resources requiring purchased fuels like natural gas and coal have a higher exposure to fuel price risk. • Market Price Volatility—Portfolios with resources that increase imports and/or exports heighten the exposure to a portfolio cost variability brought on by changes in market price and energy availability. Market price volatility is often dependent on regional fuel supply availability, weather, and fuel price risks. Resources, like wind and solar, that - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 Po r t f o l i o P G P C ( 1 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C ( 2 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C ( 3 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C ( 4 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C ( 1 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C ( 2 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C ( 3 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C ( 4 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C ( 1 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C ( 2 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C ( 3 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C ( 4 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C B 2 H ( 1 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C B 2 H ( 2 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C B 2 H ( 3 ) Po r t f o l i o P G P C B 2 H ( 4 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C B 2 H ( 1 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C B 2 H ( 2 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C B 2 H ( 3 ) Po r t f o l i o P G H C B 2 H ( 4 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C B 2 H ( 1 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C B 2 H ( 2 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C B 2 H ( 3 ) Po r t f o l i o H G H C B 2 H ( 4 ) CO 2 T o n s 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 125 cannot respond to market price signals, expose the customer to higher short-term market price volatility. • Siting and Permitting—All generating and transmission resources in the portfolios require siting and permitting for the resource to be successfully developed. The siting and permitting processes are uncertain and time-consuming, increasing the risk of unsuccessful or prolonged resource acquisition resulting in an adverse impact on economic planning and operations. Resources that require air and water permits or that have large geographic siting impacts have a higher risk. These include natural gas, nuclear, pumped storage and transmission resources, as well as solar and wind if the projects or associated transmission lines are sited on federal lands. • Technological Obsolescence—Innovation in future generating resources may possess lower costs of power and have more desirable characteristics. Current technologies may become noncompetitive and strand investments which may adversely impact customers economically. Energy efficiency and demand response have the lowest exposure to technological obsolescence. • JB NOx Compliance Alternatives—The negotiation with the Wyoming DEQ to extend the utilization of Jim Bridger units 1 and 2 without SCR investments to comply with the Federal Clean Air Act Regional Haze rules has not been completed. Without alternative compliance dates, these units have a risk of not being available for use in a portfolio after 2021 and 2022. Future reliance on these units may adversely impact customers and system reliability if a timely settlement is not obtained. • Partnerships—Idaho Power is a partner in coal facilities and is currently jointly permitting and siting transmission facilities in anticipation of partner participation in construction and ownership of these transmission facilities. Coordinating partner need and timing of resource acquisition or retirement increases the risk of an Idaho Power timing or planning assumption not being met. Partner risk may adversely impact customers economically and adversely impact system reliability. B2H and Jim Bridger early unit retirement portfolios have the highest partner risk. • Federal and State Regulatory and Legislative—There are currently many Federal and State rules governing power supply and planning. The risk of future rules altering the economics of new resources or the Idaho Power electrical system composition is an important consideration. Examples include carbon emission limits or adders, PURPA rules governing renewable PPAs, tax incentives and subsidies for renewable generation or other environmental or political reasons. New or changed rules could harm customers economically and impact system reliability. • Resource Off-Ramp Risks—All resources require time to successfully approve, permit, site, engineer, procure, and build. Some resources have long development lead times incurring costs along the way, while others have relatively short lead times with much lower development costs. As previously mentioned, the pace of change in the power industry and electric markets is increasing. Consequently, resources that have a compelling story today may be less attractive in a not-so-distant future. The flexibility to not construct a resource when forecasted conditions change is an important consideration. 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 126 Second Amended 2019 IRP Resources with long lead times and high development costs are susceptible to off-ramp risk. Likewise, early retirement and decommissioning of units limits flexibility to include the resource in the future. Reducing optionality in the selection of future resources may adversely affect customers economically. Each resource possesses a set of qualitative risks that when combined over the study period, results in a unique and varied qualitative portfolio risk profile. Assessing a portfolio’s aggregate risk profile is a subjective process weighing each component resource’s characteristics in light of potential bad outcome for each resource and the portfolio of resources as a whole. Idaho Power evaluated each resource and resource portfolio against the qualitative risk components as described in the preceding section on the selection of the preferred portfolio. Operational Considerations • System Regulation—Maintaining a reliable system is a delicate balance requiring generation to match load on a sub-hourly time step. Over and under generation due to variability in load and generation requires a system to have dispatchable resources available at all times to maintain reliability and to comply with FERC rules and California Independent System Operator (CAISO) EIM flexibility requirements. Outages or other system conditions can impact the availability of dispatchable resources to provide flexibility. For example, in the spring, hydro conditions and flood control requirements can limit the availability of hydro units to ramp up or down in response to changing load and non-dispatchable generation. Not having hydro units available increases the reliance on baseload thermal resources like the Jim Bridger units as the primary flexible resources to maintain system reliability and comply with FERC and EIM rules. Increasing the variability of generation or reducing the availability of flexible resources can adversely impact the customer economically, Idaho Power’s ability to comply with environmental requirements and the reliability of the system. Frequency Duration Loss of Load Evaluation Idaho Power used AURORA to evaluate the system loss of load using a frequency duration outage methodology for the 2019 IRP. The preferred portfolio was selected and analyzed in AURORA for 100 iterations in the year 2025. The year 2025 was selected because Idaho Power believes it will be a pivotal year. For the preferred portfolio, in 2025, there is not a large amount of excess resources on the system; the last resource built will have been a solar facility in 2023 and 2025 is a year before B2H going into service. The AURORA setup consists of generation resources and their associated forced (unexpected) outage rates. Given these outage rates, the model randomly allowed units to fail or return to service at any time during the simulation. The units selected for random outages were hydro units in the HCC, existing coal units on-line during 2025, and existing natural gas units. The setup also allowed transmission import lines to fail during the peak month of the study. The hydro generation was modified from the planning case 50 percent exceedance level to a more water restrictive 90 percent exceedance level. The demand forecast was also modified from the 50th percentile forecast to a higher load forecast of 95th percentile. Ultimately, four unique loss-of-load events occurred out of the 100 iterations of year 2025. The results of the loss-of-load analysis show Idaho Power’s system performing within the industry Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 127 standard of less than one event per 10 years and will be resource adequate through the planning timeframe. Regional Resource Adequacy Northwest Seasonal Resource Availability Forecast Idaho Power experiences its peak demand in late June or early July while the regional adequacy assessments suggest potential capacity deficits in late summer or winter. In the case of late summer, Idaho Power’s demand has generally declined substantially; Idaho Power’s irrigation customer demand begins to reduce starting in mid-July. For winter adequacy, Idaho Power generally has excess resource capacity to support the region. The assessment of regional resource adequacy is useful in understanding the liquidity of regional wholesale electric markets. For the 2019 IRP, Idaho Power reviewed two recent assessments with characterizations of regional resource adequacy in the Pacific Northwest: The Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment for 2023 conducted by the NWPCC Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee (RAAC); and the Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study by the BPA (White Book). For illustrative purposes, Idaho Power also downloaded FERC 714 load data for the major Washington and Oregon Pacific Northwest entities to show the difference in regional demand between summer and winter. The NWPCC RAAC uses a loss-of-load probability (LOLP) of 5 percent as a metric for assessing resource adequacy. The analytical information generated by each resource adequacy assessment is used by regional utilities in their individual IRPs. The RAAC issued the Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment of 2023 report on June 14, 2018,22 which reports the LOLP starting in operating year 2021 will exceed the acceptable 5 percent threshold and remain above through operating year 2023. Additional capacity needed to maintain adequacy is estimated to be on the order of 300 MW in 2021 with an additional need for 300 to 400 MW in 2022. The RAAC assessment includes all projected regional resource retirements and energy efficiency savings from code and federal standard changes but does not include approximately 1,340 MW of planned new resources that are not sited and licensed, and approximately 400 MW of projected demand response. While it appears that regional utilities are well positioned to face the anticipated shortfall beginning in 2021, different manifestations of future uncertainties could significantly alter the outcome. For example, the results provided above are based on medium load growth. Reducing the 2023 load forecast by 2 percent results in an LOLP of under 5 percent. From Idaho Power’s standpoint, even with the conservative assumptions adopted in the Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment of 2023 report, the LOLP is zero for the critical summer months (see Figure 9.9). The NWPCC analysis indicates that the region has a surplus in the summer; this is the reason that B2H works so well as a resource in Idaho Power’s IRP. 22 NWPCC. Pacific Northwest power supply adequacy assessment for 2023. Document 2018-7. nwcouncil.org/sites/default/files/2018-7.pdf. Accessed April 25, 2017. 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 128 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 9.9 LOLP by month—Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment of 2023 The most recent BPA adequacy assessment report was released in April 2019 and evaluates resource adequacy from 2020 through 2029.23 BPA considers regional load diversity (i.e., winter- or summer-peaking utilities) and expected monthly production from the Pacific Northwest hydroelectric system under the critical case water year for the region (1937). Canadian resources are excluded from the BPA assessment. New regional generating projects are included when those resources begin operating or are under construction and have a scheduled on-line date. Similarly, retiring resources are removed on the date of the announced retirement. Resource forecasts for the region assume the retirement of the following coal projects over the study period: Table 9.8 Coal retirement forecast Resource Retirement Date Centralia 1 December 1, 2020 Boardman January 1, 2021 Valmy 1 January 1, 2022 Colstrip 1 June 30, 2022 Colstrip 2 June 30, 2022 Centralia 2 December 1, 2025 Valmy 2 January 1, 2026 23 BPA. 2018 Pacific Northwest loads and resources study (2018 white book). Technical Appendix, Volume 2: Capacity Analysis. bpa.gov/p/Generation/White-Book/wb/2018-WBK-Technical-Appendix- Volume-2-Capacity-Analysis-20190403.pdf. Accessed June 20, 2019 0.2 0.1 2.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Oc t o b e r No v e m b e r De c e m b e r Ja n u a r y Fe b r u a r y Ju n e Ju l y Au g u s t 1 Au g u s t 2 Se p t e m b e r LO L P ( % ) Idaho Power Company 9. Modeling Analysis Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 129 Figure 9.10 BPA white book PNW surplus/deficit one-hour capacity (1937 critical water year) Finally, for illustrative purposes, Idaho Power downloaded peak load data reported through FERC Form 714 for the major Pacific Northwest entities in Washington and Oregon: Avista, BPA, Chelan County PUD, Douglas County PUD, Eugene Water and Electric Board, Grant County PUD, PGE, Puget Sound Energy, Seattle City Light, and Tacoma (PacifiCorp West data was unavailable). The coincident sum of these entities’ total load is shown in Figure 9.11. Figure 9.11 Peak coincident load data for most major Washington and Oregon utilities (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 January July 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 Winter Summer MW 9. Modeling Analysis Idaho Power Company Page 130 Second Amended 2019 IRP Figure 9.11 illustrates a wide difference between historical winter and summer peaks for the Washington and Oregon area in the region. Other considerations, not depicted, include Canada’s similar winter- to summer-peak load ratio, and the increased ability of the Pacific Northwest hydro system in late June through early July compared to the hydro system’s capability in the winter. Overall, each of these assessments includes very few new energy resources; any additions to the resource portfolio in the Pacific Northwest will only increase the surplus available during Idaho Power’s peak operating periods. The regional resource adequacy assessments are consistent with Idaho Power’s view that expanded transmission interconnection to the Pacific Northwest (i.e., B2H) provides access to a market with capacity for meeting its summer load needs and abundant low-cost energy, and that expanded transmission is critical in a future with automated energy markets such as the Western EIM and high penetrations of intermittent renewable resources. Idaho Power Company 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 131 10. PREFERRED PORTFOLIO AND ACTION PLAN Preferred Portfolio The portfolio development process for Idaho Power’s Second Amended 2019 IRP evolved from a completely manual portfolio development process in past IRPs to using the LTCE capability for the first time for the 2019 IRP. The 24 resource portfolios developed are substantially different in their resource composition, driven by assumed future conditions for natural gas price and carbon cost. Once resource portfolios were generated, cost analysis for the 24 resource portfolios was performed under four different assumptions: planning case conditions for natural gas price and carbon cost, and also under higher-cost futures as shown in Table 10.1. Table 10.1 AURORA hourly simulations Planning Carbon High Carbon Planning Gas X X High Gas X X The cost evaluation for different futures can be considered an examination of the quantitative risk associated with the higher-cost futures for natural gas and carbon prices, particularly on resource portfolios developed by AURORA assuming planning case conditions for natural gas price and carbon. The company also performed a stochastic risk analysis on the 24 resource portfolios, in which portfolio costs were computed for 20 different iterations for the studied stochastic risk variables: natural gas price, hydroelectric production, and system load. Collectively, between the portfolio cost evaluation under different natural gas/carbon cost assumptions and the numerous stochastic runs, risk is quantitatively captured over a wide range of potential futures. To ensure the AURORA-produced WECC-optimized portfolios are aligned with the company’s purpose of providing customers reliable and affordable energy, a subset of top-performing WECC portfolios were joined into categories and then manually adjusted with the objective of further reducing portfolio costs specific to the Idaho Power system. The selected Preferred Portfolio for the Second Amended 2019 IRP was developed under an assumption of planning case natural gas and carbon price forecasts. In terms of nomenclature, the Preferred Portfolio is designated as Portfolio PGPC B2H (1), where the modifying numeral 1 represents the first scenario identified in Table 9.4 (exit from Bridger coal units in 2022, 2026, 2028, and 2030). Adjustments to the Preferred Portfolio are described in the Manually Built Portfolios section of Chapter 8. The Preferred Portfolio, particularly with the expansion of solar and storage resources in the 2030s, is considered to align well with Idaho Power’s goal of 100 percent clean energy by 2045. Resource actions of the Preferred Portfolio are provided in Table 10.2. 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan Idaho Power Company Page 132 Second Amended 2019 IRP Table 10.2 Preferred Portfolio additions and coal exits (MW) Gas Solar Battery Demand Response Coal Exit 2019 -127 (Valmy) 2020 -58 (Boardman) 2021 2022 120 -177 -133 (Bridger, Valmy*) 2023 2024 2025 2026 -180 (Bridger) 2027 2028 -174 (Bridger) 2029 2030 40 30 5 -177 (Bridger) 2031 300 5 2032 5 2033 5 2034 40 20 5 2035 80 20 5 2036 120 10 5 2037 55.5 5 2038 55.5 5 Nameplate Total 411 400 80 45 -1,026 B2H (2026) 500 * Idaho Power has identified the potential for additional savings from an exit date as early as 2022. Further analysis must to conducted to determine optimal exit timing that weighs economics and system reliability. More detail on this study is provided in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section of Chapter 1 of this document. Action Plan (2020–2026) The Second Amended 2019 IRP Action Plan is the culmination of the IRP process distilled down into actionable near-term items. The items identify milestones to successfully position Idaho Power to provide reliable, economic and environmentally sound service to our customers into the future. The current regional electric market, regulatory environment, pace of technological change and Idaho Power’s recently announced goal of 100 percent clean energy by 2045 make the 2019 action plan especially germane. The resource additions and coal exits identified in the Action Plan window have not changed compared to the Amended 2019 IRP, with the possible exception of the exit date for Valmy Unit 2. More detail on this study is provided in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section of Chapter 1 of this document. Idaho Power Company 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 133 The Action Plan associated with the Preferred Portfolio is driven by its core resource actions through the mid-2020s. These core resource actions include: • 120 MW of added solar PV capacity (2022) • Exit from four coal-fired generating units by year-end 2022, and from five coal-fired generating units (total) by year-end 2026 • B2H on-line in 2026 The Action Plan is heavily influenced by the above resource actions and portfolio attributes, which are discussed briefly in the following sections. 120 MW Solar PV Capacity (2022) The Preferred Portfolio includes the addition of 120 MW of solar PV capacity in 2022. This capacity is associated with a PPA Idaho Power signed to purchase output from the 120 MW Jackpot Solar facility having a projected commercial on-line date of December 2022. The PPA for Jackpot Solar was approved by the IPUC on December 24, 2019. Exit from Coal-Fired Generating Capacity The Preferred Portfolio includes Idaho Power’s exit from its share of North Valmy Unit 1 by year-end 2019, Boardman by year-end 2020, a Jim Bridger unit during 2022, North Valmy Unit 2 by no later than year-end 2025 and no earlier than year-end 2022, and a second Jim Bridger unit during 2026. The achievement of these coal-unit exits is expected to require substantial coordination with unit co-owners, regulators, and other stakeholders. The company also recognizes the need to ensure system reliability is not jeopardized by coal-unit exits and considers B2H as a necessary resource in enabling the proposed coal-unit exits. Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date As discussed in Chapter 1, the exit timing of Valmy Unit 2 requires further analysis, which Idaho Power plans to conduct in the coming months. Potential savings based on a long-term analysis should not be the sole consideration. Rather, near-term economic and reliability impacts of an earlier exit must also be evaluated using data points such as forward market hub price forecasts, planned unit outages, Idaho Power’s energy risk management processes, and recent market conditions, among other items. In the months ahead, Idaho Power will conduct further analysis of Valmy Unit 2 exit timing. In particular, the company will assess the feasibility of a 2022 exit, which would require 15 months of advance notice to the plant operator (i.e., a decision before September 30, 2021). The analysis will consider customer reliability, more current operating budgets, and economics to inform a decision that will minimize costs for customers while ensuring Idaho Power can maintain system reliability. 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan Idaho Power Company Page 134 Second Amended 2019 IRP B2H On-line in 2026 The Preferred Portfolio includes the B2H transmission line with an on-line date during 2026. Continued permitting and construction activities are included in the IRP Action Plan. Demand Response Under the Preferred Portfolio in this Second Amended 2019 IRP, demand response is added one year earlier than previously identified in the Preferred Portfolio of the Amended 2019 IRP, filed in January 2020. Demand response additions are also expanded from 30 MW over six years to 45 MW over nine years. The company will continue to evaluate the cost and risk associated with accelerating and expanding demand response programs. Action Plan (2020–2026) Table 10.3 Action Plan (2020–2026) Year Action 2020–2022 Plan and coordinate with PacifiCorp and regulators for early exits from Jim Bridger units. Target dates for early exits are one unit during 2022 and a second unit during 2026. Timing of exit from second unit coincides with the need for a resource addition. 2020-2022 Incorporate solar hosting capacity into the customer-owned generation forecasts for the 2021 IRP. 2020–2021 Conduct ongoing B2H permitting activities. Negotiate and execute B2H partner construction agreement(s). 2020–2026 Conduct preliminary construction activities, acquire long-lead materials, and construct the B2H project. 2020 Monitor VER variability and system reliability needs, and study projected effects of additions of 120 MW of PV solar (Jackpot Solar) and early exit of Bridger units. 2020 Exit Boardman December 31, 2020. 2020 Bridger Unit 1 and Unit 2 Regional Haze Reassessment finalized. 2020 Conduct a VER Integration Study. 2020–2021 Conduct focused economic and system reliability analysis on timing of exit from Valmy Unit 2. 2021–2022 Continue to evaluate and coordinate with PacifiCorp for timing of exit/closure of remaining Jim Bridger units. 2022 Subject to coordination with PacifiCorp, exit Jim Bridger unit (as yet undesignated) by December 31, 2022. 2022 Jackpot Solar 120 MW on-line December 2022. 2022 Exit Valmy Unit 2 by December 31, 2022.* 2026 Subject to coordination with PacifiCorp, exit Jim Bridger unit (as yet undesignated) by December 31, 2026. Timing of the exit from the second Jim Bridger unit is tied to the need for a resource addition (B2H). Jackpot Solar PPA and the Valmy Unit 1 exit were complete at the time the Second Amended 2019 IRP was filed on October 2, 2020. * Further analysis will be conducted to evaluate the optimal exit date of Valmy Unit 2, weighing exit economics and system reliability concerns. Further discussion of the Valmy Unit 2 is provided in the Valmy Unit 2 Exit Date section of Chapter 1 of this document. Idaho Power Company 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan Second Amended 2019 IRP Page 135 Conclusion The Second Amended 2019 IRP provides guidance for Idaho Power as its portfolio of resources evolves over the coming years. The B2H transmission line continues in the 2019 IRP analysis to be a top-performing resource alternative providing Idaho Power access to clean and low-cost energy in the Pacific Northwest wholesale electric market. From a regional perspective, the B2H transmission line, and high-voltage transmission in general, is critical to achieving clean energy objectives, including Idaho Power’s 2045 clean energy goal. The cost competitiveness of PV solar is another notable theme of the 2019 IRP. The Preferred Portfolio for the Second Amended 2019 IRP includes a PPA to purchase output from 120 MW of PV solar projected on-line in December 2022. Idaho Power’s IRP analysis indicates this contract allows the cost-competitive acquisition of PV solar energy, and further positions the company in its achievement of long-term clean energy goals. The Second Amended 2019 IRP indicates favorable economics associated with Idaho Power’s exit from five of seven coal-fired generating units by the end of 2026, and exit from the remaining two units at the Jim Bridger facility by the end of the 2020s. Idaho Power views this strategy as consistent with its long-term clean energy goals and transition from coal-fired generation, and further sees the B2H transmission line as a resource critical to enabling the exit from coal-fired generation. Idaho Power recognizes its obligation to reliably deliver affordable electricity to customers cannot be compromised as it strives to achieve clean energy goals and emphasizes the need to continue to evaluate the coal-fired units’ value in providing flexible capacity necessary to successfully integrate high penetration of VERs. Furthermore, the company recognizes the evaluation of flexible capacity, and the possibility of flexibility deficiencies arising because of coal-unit exit, may require the preferred portfolio’s flexible capacity resources to be on-line sooner than planned. Idaho Power strongly values public involvement in the planning process and thanks the IRPAC members and the public for their contributions throughout the entire 2019 IRP process. The IRPAC discussed many technical aspects of the 2019 resource plan, along with a significant number of political and societal topics at the meetings. Idaho Power’s resource plan is better because of the contributions from IRPAC members and the public. Idaho Power prepares an IRP every two years. The next plan will be filed in 2021. The energy industry is expected to continue undergoing substantial transformation over the coming years, and new challenges and questions will be encountered in the 2021 IRP. Idaho Power will continue to monitor trends in the energy industry and adjust as necessary in the 2021 IRP. Idaho Power linemen install upgrades. 10. Preferred Portfolio and Action Plan Idaho Power Company Page 136 Second Amended 2019 IRP