20181015Application.pdf

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An IDACORP Company
DONOVAN E. WALKER
Lead Counsel
[e-mail]
IU
ISSION
October 15,2018
VlA HAND DELIVERY
Diane M. Hanian, Secretary
ldaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington Street
Boise, ldaho 83702
Re Case No. IPC-E-18-13
ldaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing to Update the Load and
Gas Forecast Components of the lncremental Cost lntegrated Resource
Plan Avoided Cost Methodology
Dear Ms. Hanian:
Enclosed for filing in the above matter please find an origina! and seven (7) copies
of ldaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing.
very yours,
Donovan E. Walker
DEW:csb
Enclosures
1221 W. ldaho St. (83702)
PO. Box 70
Boise, lD 83707
DONOVAN E. WALKER (lSB No. 5921)
ldaho Power Company
1221West ldaho Street (83702)
P.O. Box 70
Boise, ldaho 83707
Telephone: [phone]
Facsimile: [phone]
4u1q lke r@ id a h opqwer. cqm
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL
COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE THE
LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST
MODEL.
NECEIVED
?'Jll; 0iI I 5 PH Ir: 22
Attorney for ldaho Power Company
BEFORE THE !DAHO PUBLIC UTILIT!ES COMMISSION
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CASE NO. rPC-E-18-13
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING
ldaho Power Company ("ldaho Power") hereby respectfully submits to the ldaho
Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing, in compliance with Order Nos.
32697 and 32802, to update the load forecast and natural gas forecast components of
the !ncremental Cost lntegrated Resource Plan ("lClRP") avoided cost methodology.
I. INTRODUCTION
ln its final Order No. 32697, the Commission determined that the inputs to the
ICIRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory
Policies Act of 1978 ('PURPA") Qualifying Facility ('QF") projects that exceed the
published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of
the utility's lntegrated Resource Plan ("lRP") filing, with the exception of the load forecast
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 1
and the natural gas forecast-which are to be updated annually by October 15 of each
year. The Commission stated:
We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up-
to-date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must
update fue! price forecasts and load forecasts annually -between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these
annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR
updates - on June 1 of each year. ln addition, it is appropriate
to consider long-term contract commitments because of the
potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load
and resource balance. We find it reasonable to include long-
term contract considerations in an IRP Methodology
calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into
a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We
further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that
have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource
balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and
assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed
between IRP filings (every two years).
Order No. 32697, p.22. The date for the annual update was later changed from June 1
to October 15 of each year. Order No. 32802.
The load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below
in compliance with the Commission's orders has been incorporated into ldaho Power's
ICIRP avoided cost methodology. Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this
methodology will be utilized by ldaho Power as the starting point for the negotiation of its
contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15,2018.
II. LOAD FORECAST
ldaho Power's most recent load forecast from October 2018 shows, on average, a
decrease in its customer loads when compared to the October 2017 load forecast that
was provided to the Commission for the 2017 update in Case No. !PC-E-17-15 and
approved by the Commission in Order No. 33957.
Table 1 and Graph 1 below show the average annual load forecast for both the
previously approved October 2017 load forecast and the most recent 2018load forecast
through 2036.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 2
TABLE 1
Average Annual Load Forecast
Year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
October 2017
(aMW)
1,850
1,877
1,894
1,927
1,949
1,979
1,994
2,017
2,033
2,048
2,059
2,083
2,099
2,114
2,125
2,145
2,161
2,178
2,192
October 2018
(aMW)
1,805
1,833
1,849
1,876
1,ggg
1,923
1,946
1,972
1,990
2,008
2,022
2,048
2,066
2,084
2,096
2,117
2,134
2,154
2,168
aMW
2,250
2,200
2,t50
2,100
2,050
2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
L,750
t,700
GRAPH 1
Load Forecast
-Qqtelsr
2017 Load Forecast (aMW)
-Qq1e!s1
2018 Load Forecast (aMW)
".i. "S d9" "d) "d "S .t9" "S {r" "d .t}t "d Ct "..f "dP "dP C "d "&"
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 3
III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
As of October 15,2018, ldaho Power will update the natural gas price forecast
within the ICIRP avoided cost mode! to reflect the most recent U.S. Energy lnformation
Administration ("ElA") Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Price: High Oil and Gas Resource
and Technology forecast published on February 6,2018. This is an update of the same
EIA forecast approved in last year's filing. Case No. IPC-E-17-15, Order No. 33957. Use
of this forecast indicates a decrease in the average annual natural gas forecast prices
over the remaining period in comparison to the EIA 2017 natural gas price forecast that
was used in the ICIRP avoided cost modelfrom the previous update.
Table 2 and Graph 2 display the 2017 EIA natural gas price forecast and the
current 2018 EIA natura! gas price forecast.
TABLE 2
EIA NaturalGas Henry Hub Spot Price: High Oiland
Gas Resource and Techno]cgy
Year
October 2017
(nominal $/MMBtu)
October 2018
(nomina! $/MMBtu)
3.22
4.24
4.81
4.39
4.21
4.39
4.56
4.74
4.65
4.73
5.05
5.14
5.09
5.05
4.84
4.83
5.32
5.41
5.47
3.04
3.36
3.73
3.66
3.57
3.53
3.66
3.81
4.01
4.19
4.33
4.43
4.49
4.56
4.62
4.65
4.70
4.77
4.89
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 4
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
GRAPH 2
Natural Gas Price Forecast
So
-20L7
Henry Hub EIA* (nominal)
-2018
Henry Hub EIA* (nominal)
".i" "S "e" "-d) "^S "^S "^$ ,S "&" "$ "-S "-d "&t "S "E "S "^&' C "&'
Note * EIA Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Price: High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology, adjusted for ldaho
City Gate delivery.
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS. EXPIRATIONS. AND ADDITTONS
ldaho Power currently has three non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements: Elkhorn Valley Wind (101 megawatts ('MW")), Raft River Geothermal (13
MW), and Neal Hot Springs Geothermal (22 MW). ldaho Power currently has 134
contracts with PURPA QFs with a total nameplate capacity of 1,149 MW. lncluded in this
update for signed Energy Sales Agreements ("ESA") is one new Oregon solar QF ESA
totaling 3.00 MW, one new ldaho hydro QF ESA for2.10 MW, and four replacement ESAs
for existing ldaho QF projects totaling 7.17 MW. Please see Attachment 1 attached
hereto for a list of new and terminated contracts since the last update on October 15,
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IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 5
2017. New ESAs, terminated or expired contracts, as well as new complete ESA
applications are all included in the ICIRP model on a continuous basis.
V. CONCLUSION
ldaho Power hereby respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in
Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and asks the Commission to accept the same for filing.
Respectfully submitted this 1Sth day of October 2018.
E. WALKER
Attorney for ldaho Power Company
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 6
BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
CASE NO. IPC-E-I 8-13
IDAHO POWER COMPANY
ATTAGHMENT 1
On-Line
Facility Type Project Name State Replacement Contract Date Project Size (MW)
Hydro
Biomass
Hydro
Hydro
0.2s
5.2s
0.s6
0.11
Curry Cattle Co.
Tamarack CSPP
Clear Springs Trout
Canyon Springs
ID
ID
ID
ID
Projects Not On-Line
L2lls/2017
3127/2078
71612078
812812078
TOTAT 7.L7
Facility Type Project Name State Contract Date Project Size (MW)
Solar
Hydro
Ontario Solar
MC6 Hydro
OR
ID
2126/2018
4/2312078
3.00
2.LO
TOTAL 5.10