20161014Application.pdf

DONOVAN E. WALKER
Lead Counsel
[e-mail]
October 14, 2016
VIA HAND DELIVERY
Jean D. Jewell, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
4 72 West Washington Street
Boise, Idaho 83702
RECE I /ED
20l6 OCT I li PM 4: 50
.1-·:.:: ·, U3LIC ·· · ·:-.. ,,"Jr.1 rv11ss10N
Re: Case No. IPC-E-16-22
An IDACORP Company
Idaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing to Update the Load and
Gas Forecast Components of the Incremental Cost Integrated Resource
Plan Avoided Cost Methodology
Dear Ms. Jewell:
Enclosed for filing in the above matter please find an original and seven (7) copies
of Idaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing.
DEW:csb
Enclosures
ly yours,
fu/a
Donovan E. Walker
1221 W. Idaho St. (83702)
P.O. Box 70
Boise, ID 83707
DONOVAN E. WALKER (ISB No. 5921)
Idaho Power Company
1221 West Idaho Street (83702)
P.O . Box 70
Boise, Idaho 83707
Telephone: [phone]
Facsimile: [phone]
[e-mail]
Attorney for Idaho Power Company
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
)
) CASE NO. IPC-E-16-22
)
REC EI IED
2016 OCT 14 Pr! 4: 50
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL
COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE THE
LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST
MODEL.
) IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S
) ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING
) _______________ )
Idaho Power Company ("Idaho Power") hereby respectfully submits to the Idaho
Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing, in compliance with Order Nos.
32697 and 32802, to update the load forecast and natural gas forecast components of
the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan ("ICIRP") avoided cost methodology.
I. INTRODUCTION
In its final Order No. 32697, the Commission determined that the inputs to the
ICIRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory
Policies Act of 1978 ("PURPA") qualifying facility ("QF") projects that exceed the
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING -1
published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of
the utility's Integrated Resource Plan filing, with the exception of the load forecast and
the natural gas forecast, which is to be updated annually by October 15 of each year.
The Commission stated:
We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up­
to-date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must
update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually -
between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these
annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR
updates -on June 1 of each year. In addition, it is
appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments
because of the potential effect that such commitments have
on a utility's load and resource balance. We find it
reasonable to include long-term contract considerations in
an IRP Methodology calculation at such time as the QF and
utility have entered into a signed contract for the sale and
purchase of QF power. We further find it appropriate to
consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired
in each utility's load and resource balance. We find it
reasonable that all other variables and assumptions utilized
within the IRP Methodology remain fixed between IRP filings
(every two years).
Order No. 32697, p. 22. The date for the annual update was later changed from June 1
to October 15 of each year. Order No. 32802.
The load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below
in compliance with the Commission's orders have been incorporated into Idaho Power's
ICIRP avoided cost methodology. Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this
methodology will be utilized by Idaho Power as the starting point for the negotiation of
its contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15, 2016.
II. LOAD FORECAST
Idaho Power's most recent load forecast from October 2016 shows, on average,
a decrease in Idaho Power customer loads when compared to the October 2015 load
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 2
forecast that was provided to the Commission in Case No. IPC-E-15-25 and approved
by the Commission in Order No. 33417 .
Table 1 and Graph 1 below show the average annual load forecast for both the
previously approved October 2015 load forecast and the most recent 2016 load forecast
through 2034.
TABLE 1
Average Annual Load Forecast
October 2015 October 2016
Year (aMW) (aMW)
2016 1,803 1,772
2017 1,840 1,810
2018 1,872 1,840
2019 1,895 1,864
2020 1,912 1,874
2021 1,936 1,894
2022 1,959 1,914
2023 1,986 1,935
2024 2,010 1,955
2025 2,033 1,975
2026 2,055 1,990
2027 2,079 2,007
2028 2,102 2,018
2029 2,126 2,039
2030 2,149 2,053
2031 2,170 2,067
2032 2,188 2,074
2033 2,212 2,095
2034 2,235 2,112
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 3
GRAPH 1
Load Forecast
2,300
2,250
2,200 -October 2015 Load Forecast (aMW)
2,150
2,100 -October 2016 Load Forecast (aMW)
2,050
aMW 2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700
Ill. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
As of October 15, 2016, Idaho Power will update the natural gas price forecast
within the ICIRP avoided cost model to reflect the most recent U.S. Energy Information
Administration ("EIA") natural gas price forecast published in 2016. The October 2016
gas forecast is the nominal EIA forecast for Henry Hub in compliance with the direction
from Order No. 32980. It indicates a decrease in the average annual natural gas
forecast prices over the 20-year period in comparison to the EIA 2015 natural gas price
forecast that was used in the ICIRP avoided cost model from the previous update.
Table 2 and Graph 2 show the 2015 EIA natural gas price forecast and the
current 2016 EIA natural gas price forecast.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 4
TABLE 2
Henry Hub EIA Natural Gas forecast
October 2015 October 2016
Year (nominal$) (nominal$)
2015 3.90 2.62
2016 4.09 2.63
2017 4.61 3.21
2018 5.07 3.83
2019 5.54 4.34
2020 5.79 4.90
2021 5.97 4.89
2022 6.25 5.03
2023 6.48 5.59
2024 6.72 6.00
2025 7.09 6.27
2026 7.21 6.22
2027 7.34 6.31
2028 7.52 6.50
2029 7.63 6.69
2030 8.07 6.84
2031 8.48 6.93
2032 8.89 7.11
2033 9.31 7.19
2034 9.70 7.32
GRAPH 2
Natural Gas Price Forecast
$12
.::. $10 -2015 Henry Hub EIA (nominal) -'I/').
n:J -2016 Henry Hub EIA (nominal}
C: $8 E 0 C:
(1) $6 u ·;:: a..
Vl
n:J
I.!) $4
n:J ....
::::l +-' n:J z $2
$0
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING -5
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS, EXPIRATIONS, AND ADDITIONS
Idaho Power currently has three non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements: Elkhorn Valley Wind (101 megawatts ("MW")), Raft River Geothermal (13
MW), and Neal Hot Springs Geothermal (22 MW). Idaho Power currently has 130
contracts with PURPA QF projects with a nameplate capacity of 1,132 MW. Please see
Attachment 1 attached hereto for a list of new and terminated contracts as of October
10, 2016, and since the last update submitted on October 15, 2015. New contracts,
terminated or expired contracts, as well as new contract pricing are all included in the
ICIRP model on a continuous basis.
V. CONCLUSION
Idaho Power hereby respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in
Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and asks the Commission to accept the same for filing.
Respectfully submitted this 14th day October 2016.
fd/t<'-~
DONOVAN E. WALKER
Attorney for Idaho Power Company
•
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 6
BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
CASE NO. IPC-E-16-22
IDAHO POWER COMPANY
ATTACHMENT 1
Projects On-Line
Facility T~Re Project Name State ReRlacement Project Size {MW}
Contract Date
CoGen Simplot -Pocatello ID 1/4/2016 15.90
Hydro Mud Creek S&S ID 10/5/2016 0.52
TOTAL 16.42
Terminated Energ~ Sales Agreements
Facility T~Re Project Name State Termination Date Project Size {MW}
Solar Fairway Solar OR 2/3/2016 10.00
Solar Malheur River Solar OR 2/3/2016 10.00
Solar Olds Ferry Solar OR 2/3/2016 5.00
Solar Arcadia Solar OR 2/17/2016 5.00
Solar Evergreen Solar OR 2/17/2016 10.00
Solar Jamieson Solar OR 2/17/2016 4.00
Solar John Day Solar OR 2/17/2016 5.00
Solar Little Valley Solar OR 2/17/2016 10.00
Solar Moores Hallow Solar OR 2/17/2016 10.00
Solar Pocatello Solar 1 ID 5/6/2016 20.00
TOTAL 89.00