20170908Reading Affidavit.pdf

Gregory M. Adams (ISB No. 7454)
Peter J. Richardson (lSB No. 3195)
Richardson Adams, PLLC
515 N.27th Street
Boise,Idaho 83702
Telephone : [phone]
Fax: [phone]
greg@richardsonadams. com
peter@richardsonadams. com
Attorneys for Clark Canyon Hydro, LLC
BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION )
oF rDAHO POWER COMPANY TO )
APPROVE OR REJECT ENERGY SALES )
AGREEMENT WITH CLARK CANYON )
HYDRO, LLC, FOR THE SALE Al[D )
PURCHASE OF ELECTRIC ENERGY )
FROM THE CLARK CANYON PROJECT )
CASE NO. IPC-E-I4.Is
1I -il liilli:21
AFFIDAVIT OF DR. DON C.
READING ON BEHALF OF
CLARK CANYON HYDRO,
LLC
I, Dr. Don C. Reading, do declare, under penalty of perjury and based on personal
knowledge, the following and if called to testify, would and could competently testify thereto:
l. My name is Dr. Don C. Reading and my business address is 6070 Hill Road, Boise,
Idaho. I am a principal with Ben Johnson Associates.
2. I am a consulting economist with a PhD in economics from Utah State University
and 35 years of experience in the economics field, including eight years of teaching at the
undergraduate andlor graduate degree levels in the economics field and testifying on at least 80
different occasions before courts and state agencies in several different states, including on
AFFIDAVTT OF DR. DON C. READING ON BEHALF OF CLARK CANYON HYDRO, LLC
IPC-E-14-15
PAGE I
numerous occasions before the Idaho Public Utilities Commission.
3. Clark Canyon Hydroelectric, LLC ("Clark Canyon") asked me to calculate
altemative revenue requirement impacts under different scenarios for their proposed hydroelectric
project that is the subject of this proceeding before the Idaho Public Utilities Commission for
approval. My calculations are based on information provided in discovery or available in the case
or in Idaho Power's Integrated Resource Plan.
4. Specifically, I calculated the revenue requirement impact on both a nominal and a
present value basis for the following scenarios: (1) sales under the2014 Energy Sales Agreement
rates with an Operation Date in20l9, including the value of renewable energy certificates available
to Idaho Power based on: (i) values assumed in the 2017 IRP, and (ii) an estimate of $15 per REC
in2019 escalating at an inflation rate; (2) sales under the currently available avoided cost rates for
a replacement contract with rates containing capacity payments throughout the term but without
any benefit of RECs accruing to ldaho Power and with an assumed repayment of $1,000,000 to
Clark Canyon for the betterment of Idaho Power's Peterson substation through the interconnection
process. I have also displayed below Idaho Power's calculations, provided in discovery, which
presume that the sale under the current rates would not include capacity payments until the end of
the surplus period, as would be the case for a new qualiffing facility approaching Idaho Power for
the first time without a prior contract. The calculations and results are included in Attachment I
to this Affidavit.
5. Those calculations show that when considering a $15-REC scenario, the present
value revenue requirement of under the 2014 Energy Sales Agreement is approximately $18.1
million. Under the revenue requirement calculation without the 2014 Energy Sales Agreement,
including the assumption of capacity payments beginning in 2019 under the currently effective
AFFIDAVIT OF DR. DON C. READING ON BEHALF OF CLARK CANYON HYDRO, LLC
rPC-E-14-15
PAGE 2
rates, no value for the RECs to Idaho Power, and an estimate of $1 million in repayments to Clark
Canyon for substation upgrades, the present value revenue requirement is approximately $17.4
million. The difference between those two scenarios is approximately 5700,000.
Further your affiant sayeth naught.
I declare under penalty of perjury under the laws of the United States and under laws of the State
of ldaho that the foregoing is true and correct.
DATED this * dayof September 2017.
On this 1\
1
My Commission expires
By
State of Idaho
Dr. Don C. Reading
)) ss.
)
day of September 2017, before me, a Notary Public in and for the State
of ldaho, personally appeared Dr. Don C. Reading, personally known to me (or proved to me since
satisfactory evidence) to be the person who executed this instrument and acknowledged it to be
her free and voluntary act and deed for the uses and purposes mentioned in the instrument.
IN WTTNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and official seal the day and year
first above written.
NorARy puBLrC for the S.afL oC kna-L"s
Residing at L Odo GutnI
L
AFFIDAVIT OF DR. DON C. READING ON BEHALF OF CLARK CANYON HYDRO, LLC
rPC-E-14-15
PAGE 3
KAI{DI t WALTERS
ilotary Public
State or ldaho
I
t
I
,.
Reading Calc.
2014 ESA 2019
COD ldaho
Power IRP REC
Values
Reading
Calc. 2014
ESA High
REC 2019
coD
IPC's
Calculation
2014 ESA
2077 COD
2014 Contract Rates NPV (millions)s18.s s18.1 s17.9
2014 Contract Rates Total Obligation (millions)s38.4 536.e 534.7
Reading Calc.
2014 ESA 2019
COD plus 51
million for
I ntercon nect
Current Rates NPV mill 5t7.4
Current Rates Total O ton millio 1
IPC's
Calculation
2014 ESA
20L7 COD
S11.3
524.4
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
rPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page I of 23
ACGR 2019-
2036
50% Annual
MWh 6.74%
s.288%7,085
REC Dollars s18,885,2114.99YearAnnual Pavments
REC Forecast
(S/MWh)*
2019 S1.392.661.92 54.91 534,78s 5L.3s7,877.02
2020 s1,432,315.79 Ss.23 S37,os2 S1,39s,263.86
,1.488.702.39 ss.ss s39.319 s1.449.383.42202t
2022 s1.552.s35.83 Ss.92 S41,940 s1,510,596.59
2023 1,507,709.99 96.29 544,s62 s1,563,148.48
1.638.839.19 S6.67 547.254 s1.s91.s8s.s72024
2025 s1.671.340.65 S7.os S49,946 s1,621,394.92
2026 L,703,29s.L3 Sz.ro Sso,72s s1,652,570.11
Sss.613 sr.673.672.U202751,729,285.76 S7.8s
2028 st.767.276.34 S8.2s Ss8,447 s1,708,829.21
2029 ,L,808,542.77 S8.67 S61,423 5L,747,120.Ls
2030 s1.850.570.90 s9.08 564,327 5L,796.243.64
2031 S1.899,9s4.83 5s.sr 567,374 s1,832,581.24
S1,88s,049.8s20321,955,540.63 S9.9s s70,491
s10.40 573,679 S1.939.695.21203352,013,374.01
2034 s2,086,434.22 s10.8s 576,867 s2,009,567.40
203s 2,775,L13.42 s11.32 s80,197 s2,094,916.88
2036 2.267.658.23 s11.79 s83.s26 S2.184.131.98
2037 s2.353,131.24 S12.41 S87,943 s2,275,788.22
2038 ;2,470,579.80 S13.07 S92,s93 s2,377,926.46
2.539.776.49 513.76 s97.490 s2/,42,286.932039
2040 s362,s86.99 s14.49 $102,64s 52s9,942.29
CONTRACT RATES, CONTRACT OUTPUT
AL
*2017 ldaho Power lRP,App. C, p. 107 for 2019-2036;
50% Value, Grow at ACGR for 2037-2040
**Assumed High REC Value Forecast
CONTRACT CONTRACT OUTPUT
ACGR 2019-
2040
50% Annual
MWh 6.74%
2.0%7,08s
Year Annual Pavments
HIGH REC
Forecast
(s/MWh)*'REC Dollars s18,108,985.77
2019 s1,392,661.92 15.00 S106,268 ,7,286,394.42
2020 ,1.432.375.79 15.30 s108.393 5L323.922.94
202L S1.488.702.39 15.61 S110,s61 s1,378,141.69
2022 ,1,552,s36.83 15.92 57L2,772 ,t,439.764.9t
2023 i1,607,709.99 76.24 S11s,027 S1.492.682.63
2024 s1.638.839.19 15.55 Su7,328 s1,521,511.28
2025 s1,571,340.65 16.89 57t9,674 ;1,551,666.18
2026 L,703,295.L3 t7.23 s122.058 5L.s8L.227.77
2027 sr.729.286.L6 17.57 s124,509 ,L,604.,776.85
2028 t,767,276.34 L7.93 s125,999 ,t.640.276.84
2029 L808.542.77 18.28 s129.s39 S1.679.003.28
2030 s1.850.s70.90 18.65 s132,130 ,L,7L8,440.62
2031 ,1,899,954.83 19.02 5134,773 ,1.765.181.95
2032 1.955.540.63 19,40 S137,468 s1.818.072.29
2033 s2.013.374.01 L9.79 s140,218 1,873,156.30
2034 52,086,434.22 20.19 5t43,022 S1,943,412.16
2035 ;2.L75.IL3.42 20.s9 s14s,883 s2.029.230.92
2036 52.267.658.23 21,00 s148,800 i2,118,858.08
zo37 ,2,363,t3t.24 2t.42 5L5L,776 2.211.355.08
2038 ;2.470.519.80 21.85 s1s4,812 s2.315.708.12
2039 s2.539.776.49 22.29 S1s7,908 s2,381,858.s8
2040 22.73 s161,065 s201,s20.91
TOTAL 539,777,167.94 536,876,L73.2O
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 2 of 23
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IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 3 of 23
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IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 4of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment 1, Page 5 of 23
s970,528.09
s63324.S s1,059,&3.73
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Monthly
Average
(MWh)
(kwh)
Contract
Output: Page
L5
651,000
593,000
7,243,OO0
2,880,000
2,914,000
2,308,000
L,222,OOO
853,000
839,000
756,000
1.4,159,000
1,181
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
rPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 6 of 23
Contr.ct
Estm.t.d
Endgy
55.ffi
i.n-18
f.b-18
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Apr-18
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Aug-18
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Mar-19
Apr-19
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Affrdavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 7 of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 8 of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 9 of 23
183,O7
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#PEMX E
SEASONT HNRO FACI.N Y EMRGY PRIC}S
E-1 bse Ener8y HeaW toad Purchase Prie - For all Ba'. Enerry r.ceiwd during He.ry toad
Hour., ldaho P@er will paythe non-lcvelired en€rgprice
NPI]NDfr E
SEASoNIHYDRO IACLNY ENFRGY PRICES
E-2 Sase Energ ti8ht Load Purchase Price- tor all gase tnerry received during tight Load
Hours, ldaho Power will paythe non-levelized €nergy price
Season1- s€ason2- Season3-
(73.s0%) (120.0ffi) (100.00%)
Year Mills^wh Mills/kwh Mill./kwh2019 69.77 113.91 94.932020 71.69 117.05 97.54
2021 74.42 121.51 101.25
2022 77.51 125.55 105.S2023 80.18 130.91 109.092024 81.69 133.37 111.142025 83.26 135.94 113.28
2026 &.81 138.46 115.39
2027 86.07 1e.52 117.102024 87.91 143.52 119.602029 89.91 146.78 122.322030 glq 150.10 125.092031 q.33 154.01 128.34
2032 97.02 158.40 132.00
2033 99.82 162.97 135.812034 103.36 168.75 140.622035 107.65 L75.76 145.tr2036 112.13 183.07 152.56zo31 116.75 190.61 158.852038 121.95 199.10 165.92
2039 125.30 204.58 170.8
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
season1 Season2-
(73.s0%) (120.00%)
Mills/kwh Mills/kwh
s€ason 3 -
1100.00%)
u.42
66.34
69.07
72.16
74.83
76.34
77.91
79.46
80.72
82.56
&.55
86.59
s.98
91.67
%.47
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102.30
106.78
111.40
116.60
119.95
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108.31
1t2.77
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122.18
124.64
t27.21
129.13
131.78
t34.19
138.05
t4t.37
145.27
149.57
t54.24
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t67.O2
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181.88
190.37
195.&
87.55
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93.97
98.18
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16.m
1G.11
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tt2.32
115.M
1t1.41
121.6
124.12
128.53
133.34
139.18
145.24
151.57
158.&
153.20
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page l0 of 23
Nominal
(S/MWh)
4.59
4.86
4,9L
5.23
5.55
5.92
6.29
6.67
7.05
7.L6
7.85
8.25
8.57
9.08
9,51
9.95
10.40
10.85
1.L.32
L1..79
12.4t
13.07
13.76
74,49
Hieh REC
ForecastYEAR
2017
2018
20L9
2020
202L
2022
2023
2024
202s
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
203t
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
AGR:2019-
2036
15.00
15.30
15.51
t5.92
L6.24
16.56
15.89
L7.23
t7.57
t7.93
18.28
18.65
79.02
19.40
19.79
20.t9
20.59
21.00
21.42
21.85
22.29
22.73
5.29% 2.O%
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment 1, Page ll of 23
6.74o/o
NPV=
Yea r
51 million for
s17,438,550.37
+
20L9 52,073,833.75
2020 5L,286,424.7t
2027 s1,309,817.61
2022 s1,314,513.58
2023 5t,zzo,gtz.lq
2024 5t,373,448.27
2025 S1,671,340.65
2026 sL,484,973.39
2027 $1,51G,G11.96
2028 s1,546,498.15
S1,580,033.762029
2030 $t,ooz,oqo.zq
203t 5L,625,447.30
5L,6s4,749.6L2032
2033 s1,679,598.45
s1,710,556.402034
2035 S1,744,955.19
2035 5L,779,875.48
2037 5r,8L7,694.47
2038 S1,848,467.59
2039 51,885,048.99
2040 5269,L23.84
CURRENT RATES, CONTRACT OUTPUT
TOTAL 34,tLz,73L.82
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
rPC-E-14-15
Attachment 1, Page 12 of 23
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IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 13 of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 14 of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
rPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page l5 of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
rPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 16 of 23
SEASONAL HYDRO FACILITY ENERGY PRICES
Heavy Load Current IPUC Model
Season1- S€ason2- Season3-
(73.s0%) (120.00./) (100.0e/6)
Year Mills/kwh Mills/kwh Milis/kwh
2079 62.99 102.85 85.71
2020 64.63 105.52 87.93
2027 65.76 107.37 89.47
2022 65.99 ',to7.71 89.78
2023 67.07 ',109.51 91.25
2024 68.84 112.40 93.66
2025 71.8',t 117.25 97.71
2026 74.24 121.2',1 101.01
2027 75.77 123.71 103.09
2028 77.22 126.07 105.06
2029 7B.U 124.72 107.272030 79.94 130.51 108.76
2037 81.04 '.132.31 110.26
2032 82.8 ',134.63 112.19
2033 83.67 136.60 113.83
2034 85.17 139.05 1',15.87
2035 86.83 141.76 118.13
20s6 8.52 144.52 120/3
2037 90.35 ',147.51 122.92
2038 91.84 149.94 124.95
2039 93.61 152.83 127.*
2040 95.64 156.15 130.12
SEASONAL TIYDRO FACILITY ENERCY PRICES
Light Load Current IPUC Model
seasonl- Season2- Season3-
(73.s0%) (120.00%) (100.00%)
Year Mills/kwh Mills/kwh Mills/kwh
2079 57.U 94.1 1 78.43
2020 59.28 96.78 80.65
2027 60.41 98.63 82.19
2022 60.64 99.00 82.50
2023 6',1.72 100.77 8:).97
2024 63.49 103.66 86.38
2025 66.46 108.51 90.43
2026 68.89 1',12.47 93.73
2027 70.42 114.98 95.81
202A 71.A7 fi7.U 97.78
2029 73.49 1 19.99 99.99
2030 74.59 12',1.77 ',lol .44
2037 75.69 123.58 102.98
2032 n11 125.89 ',104.91
2033 78.32 127.47 106.55
2034 79.82 130.31 108.59
2035 81.48 133.02 110.85
2036 83.17 135.78 '113.15
2037 85.00 134.77 115.64
2038 86.48 141.20 117 .67
2039 88.26 144.09 120.08
2040 90.29 147.4',1 122.U
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 17 of 23
Month
Jan
Feb
Apr
May
Jul
Aug
sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Monthly
Average
(MWh)
(kwh)
Contract
Output: Pase
15
661,000
593,000
L,243,OOO
2,880,000
2,8L4,OOO
2,308,000
t,222,OOO
853,000
839,000
756,000
L4,169,000
1,181
Mar
Jun
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
[PC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page l8 of 23
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IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 19 of 23
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574,4n.75
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 20 of 23
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Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 21 of 23
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High REC
ForecastYEAR
20t7
20t8
20L9
2020
202t
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
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2032
2033
2034
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2036
2037
2038
2039
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s.29% 2.0%
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
tPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 22 of 23
NPFDX F
NON-SIJASONA, HYDRO FAC[,ITY ENER(iY PruCES
t-1 Base Energ Heaw toad Purchas€ P.ice - For all &se tner& received during Heaw Load
Hours, ldaho Power will paythe nonleveli2€d enerSy price
trPENDIX Ii
SEASON{, IIYDRO fAC[,TIY ENIJR(}Y PRICES
E-2 Sase EnerSy Light toad Purchase Pric€ - For all Bas€ EnerSy received during tight toad
Hours, ldaho Power will paythe non-levelized ener8y price
$ason1- S€ason2- Season3-
(73.s0%) (12o.oo%) {100.00%)Y.ar Malls/kwh Mills/kwh Mills/kwh
2019 55.57 90.73 75.60
2020 57.2A 93.52 71.93
2021 59.80 97.il 81.362022 62.68 102.33 8s.28
2021 55.13 106.34 88.52
2024 66.42 108.& 90.37
2025 57.71 110.64 92.20
2026 69.09 112.80 94.00
2027 70.t2 114.4 95.&2028 71.72 117.10 97.58
2029 73.48 119.97 99.98
2030 75.2A 122.90 102.42
203L 77.43 125.41 105.34
2032 79.A7 130.40 108.66
2033 a2.42 134.56 112.132034 85.70 139.91 116.59
2035 A9.73 146.50 122.08
2036 93.95 153.38 127.42
2037 98.30 160.50 133.75
2038 103.23 158.54 140.452039 106.31 173.57 14.U
Seasonl- Season2- season3-
(73.s0%) {120.00%) (100.00%)
Year Mills^wh Mills/kwh Mills/kwh
2019 4.42 105.18 87.65
zo20
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2024
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2011
2038
2039
tr.34
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72.16
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131.78
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160.01
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181.88
190.37
195.84
x.26
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106.00
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151.57
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163.20
Affidavit of Don C. Reading
IPC-E-14-15
Attachment l, Page 23 of 23
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE
I HEREBY CERTIFY that on the Sft day of September 2Ol7 a true and correct
copy of the within and foregoing AFFIDAVIT OF DR. DON C. READING in Case
No. IPC-E-14-15 by electronic mail and hand delivery, to:
Diane Hanian
Commission Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington Street
Boise, Idaho 83702
qli4ne. holt@puc. idahe.gev
Donovan Walker
Idaho Power Company
l22I West Idaho Street
Boise, Idaho 83702
dwalke(@idahopower. com
dockets@idahopower. com
M. Adams
Daphne Huang
Deputy Attorney General
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington Street
Boise, Idaho 83702
daphne.h idaho.gov