20160506Devol Direct.pdf

RECEIVED
f0l6lltY-6 Pil 3r tS
IDAHO PUBLIC
LITILITiES COMMISSTON
BEEORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTTLITIES COMMISSION
rN THE MATTER OT IDAHO POWER
COMPANY'S APPLICATION TO UPDATE
SOLAR INTEGRATION RATES AND
CHARGES.
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IDAHO POV{ER COMPANY
DIRECT TESTIMONY
OF
PHTLIP B. DEVOL
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o.
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address is
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Pl-ease state your name and bus j-ness address.
My name is PhiJ-ip B. DeVol and my business
L221 West fdaho Street, Boise, Idaho 83702.
By whom are you employed and
I am employed by Idaho Power
in what capacity?
Company ("Idaho
Analyst in thePower" or "Company") as a Senj-or Planning
Power Supply Planning group.
O. Please describe your educational background
and work experience with Idaho Power.
A. In May of 7989, I received a Bachelor of
Science Degree in Mathematics from Miamj- University in
Oxford, Ohio. I then recej-ved a Master of Science Degree
in Biostatistics from the University of Michigan in May of
799L.
O. Please describe your work history at Idaho
Power
A.I began my empJ-oyment with Idaho Power in 2001
as an Engineering Specialist in the Water Management
Department. In thls position, I was responsible for
modeling of the Idaho Power hydroelectric system for the
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and relicensing studies. In
2004, I became a Water Management Operations Analyst, where
I contlnued to be responsible for hydroel-ectric system
modeling.
DEVOL, DI 1
Idaho Power Company
1 In 2005, I became a Planning Analyst in the Power
2 Supply Planning Department. In this position, I was
3 responsible for the compilation of fdaho Power's long-term
4 operating plan prepared on a monthly basis as part of the
5 Company's plan for managing risk. My duties in this
6 position also expanded to include the study of wind
7 integration.
8 I became the Power Supply Planning Leader in 20L0
9 and Resource Planning Leader in 2013. I am currently a
10 Senior Planning Analyst in the Power Supply Planning group.
11 My duties in these posi-tions have included project
12 management for the most recent Idaho Power wind integratJ-on
13 study, as wel-l as the Company's two solar integration
L4 studies.
15 I have been involved in regional and national-
16 proceedings related to the study of wind integration. I
L7 participated in methodology discussions for the 2007 Wlnd
18 Integration Action Plan produced by the Northwest Wind
1,9 Integration Forum. I have attended numerous Utility Wind
20 IntegratJ-on Group ("UWfG") workshops, and presented at UWIG
2I workshops in Oklahoma Ci-ty, Okl-ahoma, in 2006 and Portland,
22 Oregon, in 2001. I also presented to the Idaho Wind
23 Working Group at its September 2071 meeting. In November
24 of 2073, I presented at a Centre for Energy Advancement
25 through Technological Innovation workshop focused on
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forecasting uncertaj-nties for renewabl-e energy supply.
Lastly, I spoke on renewabl-e integration in March of this
year at the 16th Annual Integrated Resource Plannj-ng
Conference hel-d by Electric Util-ity Consul-tants, Inc.
I 1ed the Company's 20L4 solar integration study,
which was Idaho Power's first solar i-ntegration study. f
also led the Company's 2076 solar integration study, along
with Ronald Schellberg, Idaho Power Transmission PoIj-cy and
Development, who has since retired from the Company.
O. What is the purpose of your testimony in this
matter?
A.The purpose of my testimony is to describe
Idaho Power's second solar integration study ("Study" or
"2016 Sol-ar Study") and to provide the results. The 201-6
Solar Integration Study Report (*2016 Study Report") is
attached to Idaho Power's Applicatj-on as Attachment 1. The
2016 Sol-ar Study was initj-ated in January 2075 following
the execution of a settlement stipuJ-ation ("Settlement
Stj-pulation") by all parties to the Idaho Public Utilities
Commission's ("Commi-ssion") case regarding the Company's
first 2074 solar integration study. The 20L6 Study Report
was completed in April 2016.
O. Please provj-de a high-Ievel description or
summary of the Company's 20L6 Sol-ar Study.
DEVOL, Dr 3
Idaho Power Company
A. As stated in my prior testimony regarding the
2 2014 solar integration study, electric power from solar
3 generation resources exhj-bits greater variability and
4 uncertainty than energy from conventional generation
5 sources. The greater variability and uncertainty exhibited
6 by sofar resources requires an electric utility integratlng
7 solar to modify its operating practices by holding extra
8 operating reserves on dispatchable generation resources.
9 The effect of having to hold operating reserves on
10 dispatchable resources is that the capacity held in reserve
11 restricts the use of those resources and they cannot be
72 economically dJ-spatched to their full-est capabiJ-ity. The
13 objective of the Study is to determj-ne the costs of the
L4 operational- modifications necessary to integrate
15 intermittent generation from solar, where the operational
16 modificati-ons are in the form of differing system reserve
L7 requirements.
18 The Company's 2076 Sol-ar Study determj-ned solar
L9 integration costs for four sofar build-out scenarios at
20 install-ed capacities of 400 megawatts ("MW") , 800 MW, I,200
2L MW, and 1,600 MW. Idaho Power currently has 320 MW of
22 solar generation under contract to be on-l-ine by the end of
23 2076. The Study utilized geographically dispersed build-
24 out scenarios with sol-ar generation located across the
25 Company's service territory at Parma, Murphy Flats, Boise,
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Grand View, Orchard, Bliss, Twin Falfs, and Aberdeen. Pages
3 through 6 of the 2016 Study Report provide additional
information regarding the build-out scenarios.
The Study determined sol-ar integration costs through
paired simul-ations of Idaho Power's system for each solar
build-out scenario. Each pair of simulations consists of a
test case in which extra capacity in reserve is required of
dispatchable generators to allow them to respond to
unplanned changes in sol-ar generation and a base case in
which no extra capacity in reserve is required. The solar
integration costs indicated by the simulations are provided
below. These costs are also found in Table 2, page vi of
the 20L6 Study Reportr dS weII as Tabl-e 9 and Table 10 on
pages 2L and 22 of the 2016 Study Report.
Average Integration Cost Per MWh
Increnental Integration Cost Per MIIh
(2OL6 dollars)
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O. When did Idaho Power initiate the current
solar integration study?
A. Idaho Power initiated the first communications
with parties for the 20L6 Solar Study in January 2075,
DEVOL, Dr 5
Idaho Power Company
(2OL6 do].].ars)
Build-out Scenarios 0-400 MW O_BOO MW 0-1,200 Mw 0-1,600 MW
Integration Cost $0.21 $0.s7 $0.69 $0. Bs
Penetration
Level-0-400 MW 400-800 MW 800-1,200 MW 1,200-L,600 MW
Integration
Cost s0.27 $0. B8 s0.92 $1.31
1 fol-lowing the execution of the Settl-ement Stipulation by
2 the parties to Idaho Power's initia1 2074 solar integration
3 case, Case No. IPC-E-14-18. The Settlement Stipulation is
4 included in the 20L6 Study Report at page 43. The
5 Settlement StipuJ-ation was executed by the parties on
6 January 1, 2075, and fited with the Commission for approval
7 on January 9, 20L5. On February 17, 20L5, the Commission
8 approved the Settlement Stipulation, which implemented
9 sol-ar integration rates and charges for Idaho Power based
10 upon the Company's 20L4 solar integration study. Case No.
11 IPC-E-14-18, Order No. 33221. The solar i-ntegration rates
72 and charges were set forth in a new tariff Schedule 87,
13 Variabl-e Generation Integration Charges, at the incremental
L4 cost of solar integration for each 100 MW of solar
15 nameplate penetration. The Settlement Stipulation also
t6 acknowledged that there were disagreements with respect to
11 the methodology used in the 20L4 solar i-ntegration study,
18 and that Idaho Power would initiate a second solar
L9 integratlon study, to be completed as expeditiously as
20 possible with the goal of not exceeding 12 months.
2L Settlement Stipulation, p. 3. The Settlement Stipulation
22 provides guidance regarding the conduct of the second solar
23 j-ntegrati-on study and sets forth a list of issues for
24 consideration in that study. Id., pp. 3-4. The Settlement
25 Stipulation states that the second sol-ar integration study
DEVOL, DI 6
Idaho Power Company
l- should utllize a Technlcal Review Committee ("TRC") and
2 antlcipated the participation of commission Staff from both
3 the Idaho Pub1ic Utilities Commission and the Public
4 Utility Commission of Oregon, the appropriate personnel
5 from Idaho Power, and a technical expert designated by each
6 of the parties to the Settlement Stipulation. Settlement
7 Stipulation, p. 3.
O. How was the 2076 Solar Study initiated?
A. As was the case for the 2074 sofar integration
10 study, the Company initiated the 2076 Study with the
11 formation of a TRC. Subsequent to the Commission's
L2 February 17, 2015, approval of the Settlement Stj-puJ-ation,
13 the TRC was selected and a kick-off phone conference was
L4 hel-d on March 6, 20L5. The intervening parties from the
15 Settlement Stipulation (Idaho Conservation League, Sj-erra
16 Club, and Snake River Alliance) requested the participation
L7 of Cameron Yourkowski, Renewabl-e Northwest, and Michael
18 Milligan, Nati-onal Renewable Energy Laboratory ("NREL"), on
19 the TRC. Idaho Power requested the participation of Brian
20 Johnson, University of Idaho; Clint Kalich, Avista
2l Utilities; and Kurt Myers, Idaho National Laboratory. Rick
22 Sterling from the Idaho Pub1ic Utilities Commission and
23 Bri-ttany Andrus and John Crider from the Publ-ic Utility
24 Commission of Oregon participated as observers throughout
25 the 20L6 Study process and the TRC activities. During the
DEVOL, Dr 1
Idaho Power Company
L 201-6 Study, Barbara O'Nei1I became the NREL representative
2 on the TRC. However, NREL funding did not permit its
3 active TRC participation through the entire process,
4 although Idaho Power continued to include NREL on
5 electronic correspondence through study completion. A TRC
6 Study Plan ("Study Plan") was developed and final-ized by
7 May 28, 2075, and the Study was subsequently conducted
8 during the remainder of 2075 according to that Study Plan.
9 The Study Plan is found in the Appendix to the 20L6 Study
10 Report at page 44.
11 As stated in the "Acknowl-edgments" section of the
12 2016 Study Report, Idaho Power acknowledged the important
13 contribution of the TRC in the development of the 2076
L4 Solar Study. The TRC was involved from the Study outset in
15 February 20L5, and provi-ded substantial guidance and helped
16 shape the study methods followed. Prior to finalizing the
Ll 2076 Study Report, the TRC was provided with a draft report
18 for its review and comment. The TRC members and regulatory
79 observers served either voluntarily or were paid by their
20 own employers and received no compensation from Idaho
21, Power.
22 Idaho Power believes that the members of the TRC
23 positively support the 20L6 Study and 2016 Study Report.
24 O. How was the 2016 Study conducted?
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Idaho Power Company
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A. The conduct of the 2016 Study was initially
agreed to and set forth in the previously referenced TRC
Study P1an, included at page 44 of the 2016 Study Report.
The parties agreed to general-1y adhere to the Principles
for Technlcal Review Committee Involvement in Studies of
Variable Generation Integration into Electrical Power
Systems produced by the NREL and Utility Variable-
generation Integratj-on Group (UVIG). The TRC Study Plan
sets forth the expectations, functions, and requirements of
the TRC; incorporates consi-deration of the issues set forth
in the Settlement Stipulation,' prioritizes the
consideration of various issues into the Study; set forth
the basic Study approach; and set forth a specific schedule
for proceeding with the Study.
O. What was the process followed in the 2016
Study?
A.The 20L6 Study was organized into four primary
steps: (1) data gathering and scenario development; (2)
statistical-based analysis of sol-ar characteristics; (3)
production cost simulation analysis; and (4) study
conclusions and results. These steps were formulated based
on an article published by the fnstitute of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers ("fEEE") describing methods for
studying wind integration. El-a et al. 2009. While the
IEEE article, which was authored by leading researchers at
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NREL, was written from the perspective of studying system
integration of wind generation, the principles underlying
the study of wind integration are readj-ly transferrable to
the study of sol-ar integratj-on. Both wind and solar bring
increased variabitity to power system operation, and a key
objective of an integration study for each is to understand
how variability and uncertainty lead to system impacts and
changed costs.
o.
progressed to
A.
Can you further describe how the Study
completion?
Yes. The first step, data gathering and
scenario development, is described on pages 3 through 6
the 20L6 Study Report. As stated j-n my summary above,
2076 Study considered four solar buil-d-out scenarios at
instal-Ied capacities of 400 MW, 800 MW, L,200 MW, and 1,600
MW. The Study utilized geographically dispersed build-out
scenarios with solar generatj-on located across the
Company's service territory at Parma, Murphy Fl-ats, Boi,se,
Grand View, Orchard, B1iss, Twin Fal-1s, and Aberdeen. The
build-out scenarios were developed in consultation with the
TRC to represent geographically dispersed buil-d-outs of
solar power plant capacity as informed by locations of
proposed solar power plants in southern Idaho and eastern
Oregon. Three years of solar data were developed for each
build-out scenario. To acqulre five-minute data for each
DEVOL, Dr 10
Idaho Power Company
of
the
1 site, data from either established U.S Bureau of
2 Reclamation (USBR) AgriMet Network or modeled data acquired
3 from SolarAnywhere was utilized. This data was used with
4 water year data from water years 207L, 2072, and 2013,
5 which represent a 1ow, medium, and high type of water year,
6 respectively.
The 2016 Study data also i-ncorporated a technique
8 initiated by the TRC in the 20L4 solar lntegration study
9 used to better reflect data conditions at a solar plant
10 size, rather than data from a single point. A wavelet-
11 based variability model (WVM) is utilized for simulating
12 sol-ar photovoltaic power plant output gj-ven a single
13 irradiance poi-nt-sensor time series.
L4 O. How was the statistical based analysis of the
15 data conducted?
76 A. The next phase of the 20L6 Sol-ar Study was the
L7 statistical-based analysls of sol-ar, wind, and load data.
18 This phase is described on pages 6 through L6 of the 20L6
19 Study Report. The statistical-based analysis focused
20 around two components: (1) the statistical-based analysis
2L to determine the extent to which solar brings additional
22 variability and uncertainty to system balancing and (2) the
23 follow-on analysis to translate the additional variability
24 and uncertainty to additional- capacity in reserve requJ-red
25 on dispatchable generators.
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Tn considering the impact of variability and
uncertainty from the perspective of integration impacts and
costs, the focus is pri-marily on the shorter-term
operations. That is, for the system operator responsible
for maintaining system balancing, lntegration i-mpacts arise
because of variability and uncertainty over the coming
minutes, hoursr or perhaps days. Viewed from thls
perspective, the re1evant components of system balancing
whlch bring variability and uncertainty are customer demand
(load) and intermittent sources of energy (solar and wind).
Because of the relevance of these three components-load,
solar, and wind-to the challenges with maintalning
shorter-term system balancing, the statistical-based
analysis performed for the Study takes into account
vari-ability and uncertai-nty for the three components, as
well as possible interrelationships in variability and
uncertainty between the three.
The 2016 Study focused on the assessment of
variability and uncertainty occurring from the perspective
of hour-ahead forecasting. This assessment for each of
Ioad, solar, and wind was based on the extent to which
five-minute observations differ from hour-ahead forecasts.
These differences, or deviations, between intra-hour
observations and hour-ahead forecasts drive the need to
carry operating reserves to maintain system balancing.
DEVOL, Dr 72
Idaho Power Company
1 Thus, dt a fundamental level, the statistlcal-based
2 analysis to characterize variability and uncertainty was an
3 analysis of deviations between five-minute observations and
4 hour-ahead forecasts. Eurther, explanatory variables were
5 identified that explain patterns in the deviations, and
6 these explanatory variables were then used to more
7 precisely define the operating reserve requirements.
I A critical part of the statistical assessment was
9 the determination of relationships describing the extent to
10 which intra-hour observations for each of load, so1ar, and
11 wind deviate from the hour-ahead forecasts. For example,
72 the Study found that the extent of deviations between
13 intra-hour solar observations and hour-ahead solar
1,4 forecasts could be described as a function of two
15 explanatory variabl-es: (1) hour-ahead forecast solar
L6 production and (2) the period of day.
L7 The individual-Iy determined relationships for 1oad,
18 solar, and wind were then added in a manner accounting for
19 the combining effects occurring for the base case
20 simulation of load netted wlth wj-nd, and the test case
27 simulation of load netted with wind and solar. The
22 derivation of the operatlng reserve for the base and test
23 case simulations is descrj-bed on pages 13 through 15 of the
24 2076 Study Report, and an example reserve application is
25 provided on page 16 of the 20L6 Study Report. The
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accounting of the combining effects in the reserve
methodology was discussed in great detail with the TRC, and
is a notable change in methodology from the 20L4 solar
integratlon study. This change is thought to be a key
driver of the comparatively lower solar integration costs
in the 2016 Solar Study.
o.What was the next step in the Study process?
A. The next step was the production cost
simulations, which are described on pages 77 through 20 of
the 20L6 Study Report. As described earlier in my
testimony, the Study foll-owed the conventj-onal- design of
paired simulatlons, simulating two scenarios: a base case
vs. the test case, with the sole difference between paired
simulation being the amount of capacity in reserve. The
base case capacity in reserve is based on reserve analysis
for load netted with wind, and the test case capacity in
reserve is based on reserve analysis for load netted with
wind and sol-ar. The average reserve amounts for the two
cases and the four solar build-out scenarios are provided
in Tabl-e 6, on page 15 of the 2016 Study Report.
0. Pl-ease describe the conclusions and results of
the 2016 Solar Study.
A. The Study results and findings are discussed
beginning on page 20 of the 20L6 Study Report. The
objective of the Study was to determine the costs of the
DEVOL, Dr t4
Idaho Power Company
1 operational modifications necessary to integrate sol-ar
2 generation. The integration costs are driven by the need
3 to carry extra capacity in reserve to allow bidirectional
4 response from dispatchabl-e generators to unplanned
5 variations in sofar production. The simul-ations performed
6 for the Study indicate the below costs associated with
7 holding the extra solar-caused capacity in reserve.
Average Integration Cost Per t'Illtr
(2OL6 dollars)
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Incremental Integration Cost Per MI{h
Michael J. Youngblood provides direct testimony
setting forth the Company's request and proposal to update
solar integration rates and charges utilizing the
incremental cost at each 100 MW of solar generatj-on
penetration.
Pages 22 through 26 of the 20L6 Study Report dj-scuss
the Study findings with regard to hour-ahead sofar
production forecasting; compari-son t.o wind integrati-on;
geographic dispersion and sol-ar variabil-ity; transmission
and distribution; solar integration cost elements; Hel-l-s
Canyon Complex spill; and spring-season integration.
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Build-out Scenarios 0-400 MW O-BOO MW 0-7,200 MW 0-1,600 MW
Integration Cost 50.27 $0. s7 $0.69 $0 B5
l2OL6 dollars)
Penetration
LeveI 0-400 MW 400-800 MW 800-1,200 MW 1,200-1,600 MW
Integration
Cost s0.21 $0.88 $0 92 s1 31
I Without repeati-ng the discussion from these sectlons,
2 issues and assumptions from these areas significantly
3 impact the Study results, and should actual results diverge
4 from assumptions made, i-ssues shoul-d be re-examined.
5 Additionally, the findings clarify some things that
6 were and were not considered by the Study. fn particular,
7 the four studied build-outs have solar capacity dispersed
8 widely across southern Idaho. The extent of this
9 geographic dispersion is considered to strongly influence
10 the impacts and costs of integration. As solar capacity is
11 developed in the coming years, Idaho Power will evaluate
72 the geographic dispersion of the buil-d-out capacity in
13 comparison to that assumed for the 201"6 Study. In
74 partlcular, observed production data wil-1 be reviewed when
15 available to verify the Study's assessment of sofar
76 variability and uncertainty.
1-'7 0. Does this conclude your testimony?
18 A. Yes.
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DEVOL, DI 76
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STATE OF IDAHO
County of Ada
2076.
ATTESEATION OF TESTIIIONT
JJ.
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I, Philip B. DeVol, having been duly sworn to
testj-fy truthfully, and based upon my personal knowledge,
state the following:
I am employed by Idaho Power Company as a Senior
Planning Analyst in the Power Supply Planning group and am
competent to be a witness in this proceeding.
f declare under penalty of perjury of the laws of
the state of Idaho that the foregoing pre-filed testimony
is true and correct to the best of my information and
belief.
DATED this 6th day of May 20L6.
>O ./'---'Philip DeVol-
SUBSCRIBED AND SWORN to before me this 6th day of May
DEVOL, Dr 1"7
Idaho Power Company
Notary Public
Residing at:
for Idaho
Boise, Idaho
expires z 02/04/20My commission