20151015Application.pdf

An IDACORP Company
[Ee'* ir'/ H 1]
?0lt OCI 15 Ptt lrr 22
DONOVAN E. WALKER
Lead Counse!
October 15,2015
VIA HAND DELIVERY
Jean D. Jewell, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 West Washington Street
Boise, ldaho 83702
Re: Case No. IPC-E-15-25
Update to Load and Gas Forecasts in the lncremental Cost Integrated
Resource Plan Avoided Cost Model - ldaho Power Company's Annual
Compliance Filing
Dear Ms. Jewell:
Enclosed forfiling in the above matter are an originaland seven (7) copies of ldaho
Power Company'sAnnual Compliance Filing to Update the Load and Gas Forecasts in the
lncremental Cost lntegrated Resource Plan Avoided Cost Model.
W'-zrr/b,
Donovan E. Walker
L,T*..?ffi* ii
'iit'u*
DEW:kkt
Enclosures
DONOVAN E. WALKER (lSB No. 5921)
ldaho Power Company
1221West ldaho Street (83702)
P.O. Box 70
Boise, ldaho 83707
Telephone: [phone]
Facsimile: [phone]
dwalker@ id ahopower. com
Attorney for ldaho Power Company
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO
UPDATE THE LOAD AND GAS
FORECASTS IN THE INCREMENTAL
COST INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
AVOIDED COST MODEL.
RESfiIVEB
?015 OCT l5 Ptl h: 22
wrl{reffis&t|,'}hlbt'**
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
CASE NO. rPC-E-15-25
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING
Idaho Power Company ("ldaho Power") hereby respectfully submits to the ldaho
Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing in compliance with Order Nos.
32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast and natural gas forecast components of
the incremental cost lntegrated Resource Plan ("lClRP") avoided cost methodology.
I. INTRODUCTION
ln its final Order No. 32697, the Commission determined that the inputs to the
ICIRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory
Policies Act of 1978 ('PURPA') qualifying facility ("QF") projects that exceed the
published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of
the utility's IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast and the natural gas
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 1
forecast-which is to be updated annually by October 15 of each year. The
Commission stated:
We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up-
to-date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must
update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually -between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these
annua! updates should occur simultaneously with SAR
updates - on June 1 of each year. !n addition, it is
appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments
because of the potential effect that such commitments have
on a utility's load and resource balance. We find it
reasonable to include long-term contract considerations in
an IRP Methodology calculation at such time as the QF and
utility have entered into a signed contract for the sale and
purchase of QF power. We further find it appropriate to
consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired
in each utility's load and resource balance. We find it
reasonable that all other variables and assumptions utilized
within the IRP Methodology remain fixed between IRP filings
(every two years).
Order No. 32697, p.22. The date for the annual update was later changed from June 1
to October 15 of each year. Order No. 32802.
The load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below
in compliance with the Commission's Orders have been incorporated into ldaho Power's
ICIRP avoided cost methodology. Consistent with the Commission's prior Orders, this
methodology will be utilized by ldaho Power as the starting point for the negotiation of
its contractual avoided cost rates as of October 15,2015.
II. LOAD FORECAST
ldaho Power's most recent load forecast from September 2015, shows on
average, a slight decrease in ldaho Power customer loads when compared to the
October 2014load forecast that was provided to the Commission for the 2014 update in
Case No. IPC-E-14-25 and approved by the Commission in Order No. 33182.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 2
Table 1 and Graph 1 below show the average annual load forecast for both the
previously approved October 2014 load forecast through 2032 and the most recent
2015load forecast through 2034.
TABLE 1
Average Annual Load Forecast
Year
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
October 2014
(aMW)
1,795
1,933
1,962
1,881
1,899
1,917
1,939
1,962
1,986
2,010
2,035
2,059
2,093
2,105
2,131
2,154
2,175
2,193
October 2015
(aMW)
1,766
1,803
1,840
1,872
1,995
1,912
1,936
1,959
1,996
2,010
2,033
2,055
2,079
2,102
2,126
2,149
2,170
2,199
2,212
2,235
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 3
2,300
2,250
2,200
2,150
2,LOO
=
2,oso
=(E 2,ooo
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
L,700
GRAPH 1
Load Forecast
-Q6t6$91
2014 Load Forecast (aMW)
-Qsfs[gp
2015 Load Forecast (aMW)
"S "&" "$ """ ".s "&" '$ "-S "$ '$ "d "-s," "$ d," "d "$t dl ,d "d "&"
III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST
As of October 15,2015, ldaho Power will update the natural gas price forecast
within the ICIRP avoided cost model to reflect the most recent U.S. Energy Information
Administration ("ElA") natura! gas price forecast published on April 14, 2015. The
October 2015 gas forecast is the nominal EIA forecast for Henry Hub in compliance with
the direction from Order No. 32980. lt indicates, on average, a slight increase in the
average annual natural gas forecast prices over the next 20 years in comparison to the
ElA2014 natural gas price forecast that was used in the ICIRP avoided cost model from
the previous update.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING .4
Table 2 and Graph 2 display the 2014 EIA natural gas price forecast and the
current 2015 EIA natural gas price forecast.
TABLE 2
Henry Hub EIA Natural Gas forecast
Year
October 2014
(nominal$)
October 2015
(nominal$)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
3.93
4.41
4.76
5.27
5.19
4.96
5.37
5.64
5.90
6.20
6.45
6.72
7.00
7.26
7.63
8.12
8.47
8.91
9.41
9.83
3.90
4.09
4.61
5.07
5.54
5.79
5.97
6.25
6.48
6.72
7.09
7.21
7.34
7.52
7.63
8.07
8.48
8.89
9.31
9.70
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 5
GRAPH 2
Natural Gas Price Forecast
-20t4
Henry Hub EIA (nominal)
-2015
Henry Hub EIA (nominal)
"$ C "$ ""y" "S "&" "dP "S "-S "$ "d C "S "&. "d ^ue" "d| "d "S "&'
IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS. EXPIRATIONS. AND ADDITIONS
ldaho Power currently has three non-PURPA, long-term power purchase
agreements: Elkhorn Valley Wind (101 megawatts ("MW')), Raft River Geothermal (13
MW, and Neal Hot Springs Geothetmal (22 MW). ldaho Power currently has 140
contracts with PURPA QF projects with a nameplate capacity of 1,232 MW. lncluded in
the signed contracts are nine new Oregon solar QF contracts totaling 69 MW. Please
see Attachment No. t hereto for a list of new and terminated contracts since the last
update on October 15,2014. New contracts, terminated or expired contracts, as well as
new contract pricing are all included in the ICIRP mode! on a continuous basis.
SL2
= Slo
=a
-Es8'E
ocgs0
Lo-o(Uos46
foz5z
SO
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 6
V. CONCLUSION
ldaho Power hereby respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in
Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and asks the Commission to accept the same for filing.
Respectfully submifted this lsthday October 2015.
IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 7
BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
GASE NO. IPC-E-15-25
IDAHO POWER COMPANY
ATTACHMENT NO. 1
Proiects Online
Facilitv Tvpe
CoGen
ftyOro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Proiect Name
Simplot - Pocatello
Baker City Hydro
Blind Canyon
Pristine Springs #1
Pristine Springs #3
Contract Date
1t3012015
6t8t2015
10t3112014
3t26t2015
3t26t2015
ProiectSize (MW)
is.go
0.24
1.63
0.10
0.20
State
ID
OR
ID
!D
ID
TOTAL 18.07
Proiects Not Online
Facilitv Tvpe
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Hydio
Proiect Name
Arcadia Solar
Evergreen Solar
Fairway Solar
Jamieson Solar
John Day Solar
Little Valley Solar
Malheur River Solar
Moores Hallow Solar
Olds Ferry Solar
North Gooding Main Hydro
State Contract Date
oR 9t16t2015
oR 9t16t2015
oR 10t12t2015
oR 9t16t2015
9t16t2015
9t16t2015
toit2.t2ots
9t16t2015
10t12t2015
7t29t2015
ProiectSize (MWl
s.oo
1o.oo
1o.oo
4.OO
s.oo
10.00
i 6.00
10.00
s.oo
1.30
OR
6R
OR
OR
OR
ID
TOTAL
Terminated Energy Sales Agreements
Facilitv Tvpe
Solar
Solar
Solar
Solar
Proiect Name
Clark Solar 1
Clark Solar 2
State Termination Date ProiectSize (MW)
ID
ID
4t6t2015
4t6t2015
4t6t2015
4t6t2015
71
20
30
20
Clark Solar 3 lD
Clark Solar 4 lD
TOTAL 14,l.00