20061023Said rebuttal exhibits.pdf

IDAH-O POWER COMP ANyRECE\VEO
20Gb OC1 23 p~, 4: 30
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CASE IPC \Or'HO ~'0uL '.'
UTILITIES CO1\hk\\SS\ I
DIRECT REBUTTAL TESTIMONY
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IDAHO POWER COMP A~1-CE\V 4.33200G OC1 23
CASE NO. IPC-06m\~Hf~~dOY,x~1\~S\or'\
DIRECT REB UTT AL TESTIMONY
GREGORY W. SAID
EXHIBIT NO.
Global Credit Research
Summary Opinion
06 Oct 2006
Moody Investors Service
Summary Opinion: Idaho Power Company
Idaho Power Compa"y.
Company Profile
Idaho Power Company (IPC) is a regulated investor-owned utility and the principal wholly-owned subsidiary of IDACORP, Inc" a holding
company which also serves as parent for other modest-sized non-utility businesses, As an all-electric utility, IPC provides retail electric
service to more than 464 000 residential, irrigation, commercial and industrial customers within a 24 000-square mile service area
encompassing southwestern Idaho and eastern Oregon. IPC generates nearly half of the electricity it sells from 17 hydroelectric
developments on the Snake River and its tributaries, IPC also serves a portion of its electric load from three coal-fired power plants inWyoming, Nevada, and Oregon and from the natural gas-fired Bennett Mountain Power Plant and Evander Andrews Power Complex in
Mountain Home, Idaho. The utility also buys electricity from the regional wholesale market to meet its customers' needs for electricity,
On a stand-alone basis, IPC represents over 90% of IDACORP's consolidated revenues, net income, and assets, IPC's customers have
been weighted toward the residential class, with about 44,9% of 2005 general business revenues derived from sales to residential
customers, which are typically more predictable and stable sources of revenue. We do not expect this to change materially in the foreseeable
future, The remainder of IPC's 2005 revenues was derived from electricity sales to commercial customers (26%), industrial customers
(17,7%), and irrigation customers (11.4%),
IPC's retail rates are subject to the regulatory jurisdiction of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) and the Oregon Public Utility
Commission, Wholesale activities and interstate activities are subject to the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Rating Rationale
Key factors affecting IPC's Baa1 senior unsecured debt rating include its generally low business risk profile, reasonably supportive
regulatory treatment of late, increasing capital expenditures to add capacity, financial metrics within an acceptable range for a regulated
electric utility in the Baa rating category, and access to sufficient liquidity, IPC's ratings also take into account that IPC's retail rates remainbelow national averages, and that it is pursuing strategies to control operating expenses and conservatively finance utility investments,
Significantly Higher Utility Capital Expenditures To Be Met With Cash Plus External Funding
IPC will face significantly higher capital expenditure needs over the next few years, primarily to meet customer and demand growth, IPC
expects to continue financing its large utility construction program and other capital requirements, estimated at $720 million over the next
three years, with internally generated funds and externally financed capital. Its internally generated cash after dividends is expected to
provide approximately 58% of its 2006 capital requirements, In the face of external financing needs, it is possible that IPC will seek to
maintain capitalization ratios close to the June 30, 2006 level through periodic additional common equity infusions from its parent company,
Balanced Regulatory Treatment In A Settled Rate Case Lies In Contrast To Less Supportive 2004 Litigated Decision
Need for further general rate increases at IPC:
The 3,2% general rate case settlement increase to IPC's Idaho retail base rates implemented on June 1 , 2006 was a particularly
encouraging sign of a more transparent working relationship between the IPUC and IPC, The settled outcome was much more supportive of
IPC's need for rate relief to address certain cost pressures and lies in significant contrast to IPC's 2004 general rate case decision in Idaho
when the IPUC (through a fully litigated decision) only approved a little more than half of the company s requested rate increase, We also
note that the utility's management is adhering to a conservative financing plan that should help produce reasonable financial results going
forward, especially given the return to above normal hydro conditions, Moreover, management has shown a greater willingness to
collaborate with the IPUC by undertaking smaller and more frequent general rate increases to temper any potential rate shock to customers
when cost pressures arise, Consistent with this tendency, we would not be surprised to see management approach the IPUC for additional
albeit smaller rate increases, as utility capital spending plans continue to unfold.
Rate reduction for normalized hydro conditions:
IPC's credit quality also reflects the end of drought conditions that had persisted in Idaho for about six years until this past spring,
Improved water conditions in the Snake River Basin this year enabled IPC to make better use of its hydroelectric generating system and
helped to reduce net power supply costs, Our ratings take into consideration the longstanding existence of a Power Cost Adjustment (PCA)
mechanism in Idaho. Under the terms of the PCA, IPC annually adjusts its rates charged to Idaho retail customers for 90% of the difference
(with interest) between the actual and forecasted costs of fuel and purchased power less off-system sales, We generally view the existence
of PCA mechanisms to be beneficial to a utility s overall credit profile because such a mechanism can help minimize the negative effects on
earnings and cash flow when net power supply costs exceed forecast levels in existing rates. This is especially so when the cash recovery
period is relatively short We note that IPC's most recent PCA filing resulted in a 19% PCA credit, reflecting the reduced net power costs due
to improved hydro conditions, This credit more than offsets the impact on customers' bills due to the 3.2% general rate increase noted above,
IPC and State of Idaho sign aquifer recharge agreement:
Earlier concerns about potential loss of benefits from operating IPC's significant hydroelectric system were placated when IPC and the
State of Idaho signed a stipulation agreement on April 11 , 2006, that positions the state to move forward with efforts to provide water for
aquifer recharge to agricultural interests under two permits that protect the utility s water rights while reducing the impact of recharge on its
customers to an estimated potential maximum of $30 million, A proposed Idaho bill, House Bill 800, would have rolled back an Idaho Law
passed in 1994 containing protections for the public benefit of low-cost hydroelectric generation but was defeated in the Idaho Senate on
March 30.
Financial Metrics
For the trailing 12-months ended June 30, 2006, IPC's cash flow from operations exclusive of working capital changes (hereafter referred
to as FFO) provided coverage of interest and debt by 3,8x and 15.6%, respectively, reflecting improvement over levels reported for fiscal
year end 2005. These metrics are still considered marginally acceptable relative to IPC's Baa1 senior unsecured debt rating, Looking ahead
IPC's financial performance will likely remain subject to the vagaries of water flow conditions, the adequacy and timeliness of rate relief
afforded to IPC by the IPUC in likely future general rate case proceedings, and higher than historical utility capital expenditures for the near
term. Our ratings assume that the IPUC will address any future regulatory filings by IPC in a way that allows for supportive rate base
treatment of utility capital spending, thus supporting improvement in IPC's FFO coverage of interest and debt over the next couple of years
that would, strengthen its standing within the Baa1 senior unsecured rating category,
Sale of sulfur emission allowances generates cash:
In late 2005 and early 2006, IPC sold 78,000 sulfur dioxide emission allowances on the open market for approximately $81,6 million, In
accordance with a stipulation by the IPUC, IPC may retain only 10%, or $4,7 million after-tax, of emission allowance net proceeds as a
shareholder benefit, while the remaining 90% was recorded as a customer benefit and included in its annual PCA true-up, This one-time
cash windfall lifted second quarter earnings and will also be reflected in next year's annual PCA filing, IPC retains about 32 000 excess
allowances, which it intends to keep for now just in case it may need them in conjunction with new planned coal-fired generation plants,
After considering Moody s standard adjustments, IPC has benefited from a modest reduction in its overall debt leverage ratio from 42.
at December 31 , 2003 to 41.5% as of June 30, 2006, The calculation of this ratio includes deferred income taxes as part of capitalization.
The adjusted debt ratio leaves IPC comfortably positioned relative to the range typically expected for a Baa-rated regulated electric utility
company, The improvement in IPC's debt ratio is partly attributable to higher retained earnings resulting from a 35% reduction in the parent'
dividend payout level in 2003, Against the backdrop of higher than historical capital spending at IPC over the near term, we have factored
into existing ratings the possibility that prospective debt leverage could creep slightly higher.
Liquidity
On balance, IPC has sufficient liquidity, including cash on hand and its ample unused capacity under its bank facility. IPC's bank facility,
which is sized at $200 million, expires March 31, 2010 and contains less restrictive terms and conditions than its former agreement. Cash
proceeds from the sale of non-regulated businesses have enabled IDA to infuse additional equity into IPC in support of the utility's capital
expenditures. Management still may decide to further support IPC's capital program and bolster consolidated capitalization and cash flow
coverage of debt metrics by periodic issuances of additional common equity, Meanwhile, we continue to believe that management's future
strategies will focus on a back-to-basics core energy-related and largely regulated utility business,
Rating Outlook
IPC's stable rating outlook reflects a continued focus on regulated electric utility operations, which have a relatively low business risk
profile and with the help of a PCA mechanism tend to be a stable source of earnings and cash flow, The outlook also assumes that IPC can
adequately cope with its remaining challenges, including through prudent management of its large capital program such that state regulators
are likely to be supportive of IPC's future requests for recovery of and return on those investments.
What Could Change the Rating - Up
Near term challenges related to a large capital program make an upgrade unlikely in that time frame, However, IPC's outlook or rating
could improve over the intermediate term through a combination of continued normalized hydro conditions, greater regulatory support in
future rate proceedings, and reduced capital spending that results in positive free cash flow being used to significantly reduce debt.
What Could Change the Rating - Down
Lower than anticipated earnings and cash flow, perhaps due to the recommencement of drought conditions or lack of regulatory support
in rate proceedings related to impending capital investments, could result in a negative rating action. Additionally, negative pressure could
stem from one or more of the following: significant increases in relicensing costs and/or stringent operational constraints imposed as part of
the license renewal process; any unexpected change that compromises the PCA mechanism; any shift by IDACORP to pursue significant
debt-financed investment in more risky non-regulated businesses that increases demand on IPC cash flow.
(g Copyright 2002 by Moody s Investors Service, 99 Church Street, New York, NY 10007, All rights reserved.
Copyright 2006, Moody s Investors Service, Inc, and/or its licensors and affiliates including Moody s Assurance Company, Inc, (together
MOODY'), All rights reserved.
RECEIVEDIDAHO POWER COMPANY u I., 33
20G& OCT 23 Pn "t'
:r.
,\" ~:'
U8l.\C CASE NO, IPC-06-8 UTI \Es\~mJu''ilSSIO\'\
DIRECT REB UTT AL TES TIM 0 NY
GREGORY W. SAID
EXHIBIT NO.
Fixed Cost Analysis
IPC-O3-
Residential Distribution and Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Costs CostsCosts
Energy 141 393 141 393 141 393 141 393
Customers 334 917 334 917 334 917 334 917
Class Fixed Costs $87 074 326 $17 646 112 $27 722 332 $132.442 770
Fixed Cost per Customer $259.$52,$82,$395.45
Fixed Cost per MWH $21.$4.26 $6.$31.
IPC-O3-
Small Commercial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Fixed Costs Costs CostsCosts
Energy 265 336 265 336 265 336 265 336
Customers 618 618 618 618
Class Fixed Costs 659 874 175 503 709 965 $11,545 342
Fixed Cost per Customer $257,$34,$50,$343.43
Fixed Cost per MWH $32.$4.43 $6.44 $43,
IPC-O3-
Large Commercial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Fixed Costs Costs Costs
Energy 014,427 014,427 014,427 014,427
Customers 213 213 213 213
Class Fixed Costs $20 907 779 677 063 $14 823 916 $45,408 759
Fixed Cost per Customer 214,$562,$861.20 638.
Fixed Cost per MWH $6,$3.$4.$15,
IPC-O3-
Industrial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Fixed Costs Costs CostsCosts
Energy 978 824 978 824 978 824 978 824
Customers 116 116 116 116
Class Fixed Costs 544 091 190 086 877 724 $17 611 901
Fixed Cost per Customer $56,414,$36 121.43 $59 290.$151 826.
Fixed Cost per MWH $3,$2,$3.$8.
IPC-O3-
Irrigation Distribution and Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Costs Costs
Energy 620 931 620 931 620 931 620 931
Customers 737 737 14,737 737
Class Fixed Costs $27 519 592 $11,453 378 $13 633 301 $52 606 270
Fixed Cost per Customer 867.$777,$925.569.
Fixed Cost per MWH $16,$7,$8.$32.45
IPC-O3-
Total Company Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Fixed Costs Costs Costs
Energy 020 911 11,020 911 020 911 020 911
Customers 400 601 400 601 400 601 400,601
Class Fixed Costs $150 705 662 $44 142,142 $64 767,238 $259 615 042
Fixed Cost per Customer $376.$110,$161.$648,
Fixed Cost per MWH $13.$4,$5.$23.
Fixed Cost Analysis
IPC-OS-
Residential Distribution and Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Costs CostsCosts
Energy 503 865 S03,865 503 865 503 865
Customers 359 802 359 802 359 802 359 802
Class Fixed Costs $98 081,520 $22 774 299 $31 27S 495 $152,131 314
Fixed Cost per Customer $272.60 $63,$86,$422.
Fixed Cost per MWH $21,$5,$6,$33,
IPC.OS-
Small Commercial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Fixed Costs Costs CostsCosts
Energy 296 650 296 650 296 650 296 650
Customers 310 310 310 34,310
Class Fixed Costs 686 006 547,271 $2,202,408 $13,435 685
Fixed Cost per Customer $282,$45.$64,$391.
Fixed Cost per MWH $32,$5.$7.42 $45.
IPC.OS.
Large Commercial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Fixed Costs Costs Costs
Energy 149 074 149 074 149 074 149 074
Customers 587 17,587 587 17,587
Class Fixed Costs $23,416 720 $13 448 421 $19 244 823 $56 109 964
Fixed Cost per Customer $1,331.48 $764,$1,094.26 $3,190.42
Fixed Cost per MWH $7,$4.$6,$17,
IPC-OS-
Industrial Distribution an
~ I
Transmission I Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Fixed Costs Costs CostsCosts
Energy 056 659 056 659 056 659 056 659
Customers 116 116 116 116
Class Fixed Costs $7,271,677 203 056 221 444 $22 696 177
Fixed Cost per Customer $62 894.$53 6S1,$79 758.$196 305.41
Fixed Cost per MWH $3,$3,$4.48 $11,
IPC-OS-
Irrigation Distribution and Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Costs
Energy 574 100 574,100 574 100 574 100
Customers 085 085 085 085
Class Fixed Costs $25 314,916 $10 111 999 $15 935 460 $51 362 375
Fixed Cost per Customer 678,$670.$1,056.$3,404.
Fixed Cost per MWH $16.08 $6.$10,$32.
IPC-OS-
Total Company Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Fixed Costs Costs Costs
Energy 11,580 348 11,580 348 580 348 11,580 348
Customers 426 899 426 899 426 899 426 899
Class Fixed Costs $163 770 839 $54 085 045 $77 879 631 $295735 516
Fixed Cost per Customer $383.$126.$182.43 $692,
Fixed Cost per MWH $14,$4.$6,$25,
Fixed Cost Analysis
Change In Fixed Costs
Residential Distribution and Totai FixedCustomer Fixed CostsCosts
Energy 362,472 362,472 362,472 362,472
Customers 885 885 24,885 24,885
Class Fixed Costs 007,194 128,187 553 163 688 544
Fixed Cost per Customer $442,$206.$142.$791,
Fixed Cost per MWH $30,$14,$9.$54,
Change In Fixed Costs
Small Commercial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Fixed Costs Costs CostsCosts
Energy 315 315 31,315 315
Customers 692 692 692 692
Class Fixed Costs 026 132 371 768 492 444 890 344
Fixed Cost per Customer $1,482,$537,$711,$2,731.
Fixed Cost per MWH $32,$11,$15,$60.
Change in Fixed Costs
Large Commercial Distribution and Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Costs
Energy 134 647 134 647 134 647 134 647
Customers 374 374 374 374
Class Fixed Costs 508 940 771 358 4,420 907 701,205
Fixed Cost per Customer 708.40 $10 083,$11 820.$28 612.
Fixed Cost per MWH $18,$28,$32,$79.48
Change In Fixed Costs
Industrial Distribution and Transmission Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed Fixed Costs Costs CostsCosts
Energy 834 77,834 834 834
Customers
Class Fixed Costs 727,586 012970 343 720 084 276
Fixed Cost per Customer N/A N/A N/A N/A
Fixed Cost per MWH $9.$25.$30,$65,
Change in Fixed Costs
Irrigation Distribution and Generation Fixed Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Costs Costs
Energy (46 831)(46,831)(46,831)(46831)
Customers 348 348 348 348
Class Fixed Costs 204,676)341 379)302,159 243 896)
Fixed Cost per Customer ($6 335,28)($3 854,54)615.40 ($3 574.41)
Fixed Cost per MWH $47,$28,($49,16)$26,
Change In Fixed Costs
Total Company Distribution and Total FixedCustomer Fixed
Costs Costs
Energy 559,437 559,437 559,437 559,437
Customers 299 299 299 299
Class Fixed Costs 065 177 942 903 112 393 120,473
Fixed Cost per Customer $496.$378,$498,$1,373.48
Fixed Cost per MWH $23,$17.$23.44 $64,