20031021Said Exhibit 35.pdf

BEFORE THE
IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
CASE NO. IPC-E-03-13
IDAHO POWER COMPANY
EXHIBIT NO. 35
G. SAID
PCA Regression Derivation
PCA REGRESSION DERIVATION
obs
averages
runoff
5,754,850
lnrrun off)
15 .46 $ 47,494,793 $
oredicted v
47,494,793
regression statistics
multiple r 0.8861
r square 0.7852
adjusted r square 0.7823
standard error 17,148,522
observations 75 a nova
df regression 1
residual 73
total 74 coefficients
intercept 1,140,615,325
x variable 1 (70,685,112)
EXHIBIT NO. 35
CASE NO. IPC-E-03-13
G.SAID, IPCO
PAGE 1 OF 1
1 1928 6,966,928 15.76 $ 24,896,784 $ 33,177,543
2 1929 3,689,911 15.12 $ 50,873,982 $ 71,886,172
3 1930 2,911,496 14.88 $ 98,727,170 $ 81,080,931
4 1931 2,381,175 14.68 $ 106,958,582 $ 87,345,159
5 1932 4,861,787 15.40 $ 73,646,054 $ 58,043,790
6 1933 4,250,553 15.26 $ 81,740,688 $ 65,263,784
7 1934 2,381,897 14.68 $ 131,019,720 $ 87,336,631
8 1935 3,172,748 14.97 $ 103,166,102 $ 77,994,972
9 1936 5,136,066 15.45 $ 68,134,235 $ 54,803,973
10 1937 3,195,479 14.98 $ 67,351,698 $ 77,726,475
11 1938 7,167,188 15.79 $ 12,664,916 $ 30,812,051
12 1939 3,522,159 15.07 $ 69,189,270 $ 73,867,685
13 1940 4,342,590 15.28 $ 60,822,409 $ 64, 176,628
14 1941 3,999,227 15.20 $ 64,683,087 $ 68,232,480 15 1942 4,977,822 15.42 $ 33,478,159 $ 56,673,167
16 1943 9,546,645 16.07 $ 20,156,051 $ 2,705,541
17 1944 3,579,035 15.09 $ 57,457,371 $ 73,195,857
18 1945 5,309,857 15.49 $ 11,349,386 $ 52,751,118
19 1946 7 ,055,496 15.77 $ 25,634, 128 $ 32,131,365
20 1947 5,348,955 15.49 $ 35,644,106 $ 52,289,285
21 1948 5,895,433 15.59 $ 23,192,016 $ 45,834,203
22 1949 5,448,833 15.51 $ 36,487,169 $ 51, 109,514 23 1950 6,849,217 15.74 $ 16,413,270 $ 34,567,964
24 1951 7,103,576 15.78 $ 20,141,713 $ 31,563,444
25 1952 I 0,862,977 16.20 $ 22,402,752 $ (12,843,179)
26 1953 6,407,278 15.67 $ 29,088,318 $ 39,788,217
27 1954 5,554,042 15.53 $ 56,282,988 $ 49,866,767
28 1955 3,866,501 15.17 $ 36,288,665 $ 69,800,259
29 1956 7,902,304 15.88 $ 19,602,283 $ 22,128,749
30 1957 8,295,186 15.93 $ 16,827,186 $ 17,487,967
31 1958 7,496,672 15.83 $ 37,839,082 $ 26,920,132 32 1959 4,184,210 15.25 $ 54,882,387 $ 66,047,439
33 1960 4,357,605 15.29 $ 74,891,892 $ 63,999,270
34 1961 3,096,603 14.95 $ 93,255,958 $ 78,894,414
35 1962 5,076,278 15.44 $ 39,952,360 $ 55,510,195
36 1963 5,052,040 15.44 $ 44,538,500 $ 55,796,498
37 1964 6,384,427 15.67 $ 11,281,426 $ 40,058,143
38 1965 9,015,991 16.01 $ 14,242,774 $ 8,973,705
39 1966 3,273,937 15.00 $ 83,086,380 $ 76,799,715
40 1967 5,483,615 15.52 $ 21,541,691 $ 50,698,662
41 1968 3,361,950 15.03 $ 33,490,176 $ 75,760,097
42 1969 7 ,078,054 15.77 $ 33,503,094 $ 31,864,906
43 1970 6,586,665 15.70 $ 7,748,587 $ 37,669,269
44 1971 11,260,594 16.24 $ 5,867,224 $ (17,539,886)
45 1972 8,267,498 15.93 $ 16,384,317 $ 17,815,013
46 1973 4,010,676 15.20 $ 16,141,798 $ 68,097,248
47 1974 9,976,606 16.12 $ 24,672,812 $ (2,373,224) 48 1975 9,101,832 16.02 $ 5,910,962 $ 7,959,742
49 1976 7 ,948,088 15.89 $ 34,409,346 $ 21,587,936
50 1977 2,161,615 14.59 $ 99,856,791 $ 89,938,639
51 1978 6,050,594 15.62 $ 8,291,623 $ 44,001,418
52 1979 3,840,423 15.16 $ 63,731,656 $ 70, 108,305
53 1980 6,377,115 15.67 $ 17,816,446 $ 40,144,502
54 1981 4,055,248 15.22 $ 55,844,377 $ 67,570,750
55 1982 9,782,115 16.10 $ 7,972,516 $ (75,864)
56 1983 10,702,685 16.19 $ (5,749,822) $ (10,949,783) 57 1984 12,630,563 16.35 $ (8,366,250) $ (33,722,175)
58 1985 5,636,055 15.54 $ 29,873,368 $ 48,898,022
59 1986 8,819,397 15.99 $ 1,589,769 $ 11,295,900
60 1987 2,826,920 14.85 $ 95,802,567 $ 82,079,946
61 1988 2,629,206 14.78 $ 97 ,566,626 $ 84,415,378
62 1989 4,617,913 15.35 $ 64,156,115 $ 60,924,464
63 1990 3,015,713 14.92 $ 111,640,117 $ 79,849,898
64 1991 2,771,215 14.83 $ 115,906,144 $ 82,737,951
65 1992 1,967,302 14.49 $ 132,400,389 $ 92,233,891
66 1993 6,085,398 15.62 $ 31,494,407 $ 43,590,308
67 1994 2,615,546 14.78 $ 97,009,455 $ 84,576,734
68 1995 6,779,568 15.73 $ 25,980,878 $ 35,390,675
69 1996 8,398,725 15.94 $ 25,197,262 $ 16,264,946
70 1997 9,908,172 16.11 $ 17,915,497 $ (1,564,874)
71 1998 8,951,599 16.01 $ 9,859,071 $ 9,734,306
72 1999 7 ,985,776 15.89 $ 20,443,802 $ 21,142,760
73 2000 4,370,706 15.29 $ 79,021,382 $ 63,844,521 74 2001 2,392,435 14.69 $ 120,608,324 $ 87,212,152
75 2002 3,246,067 14.99 $ 118,285,937 $ 77,128,917