20031021Avera Exhibit 9.pdf

BEFORE THEIDAHO PUBLIC UTiliTIES COMMISSIONCASE NO. IPC-O3-IDAHO POWER COMPANY
EXHIBIT NO.
W. AVERA
Risk Premium Method - Realized Returns
RISK PREMIUM APPROACH Exhibit WEA-Page 1 of 1ANALYSIS OF REALIZED RATES OF RETURN ON EQUITYFOR THE S&P ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIESS&P ELECTRIC COMPANIES li!l S&P SINGLE-A PUBLIC UTILITY BONDS (Q)CLOSE ANNUAL CLOSE ANNUALPRICEDIVREALIZED RETURN YIELD PRICE REALIZED RETURN1945$16.(c)73%(d)1946 $15.$0.0.49%72%$100.91%1947 $12.$0.12.17%04%$94.2.41 %1948 $12.$0.1.47%05%$99.86%1949 $14.$0.24.49%70%$105.93%1950 $14.49 $0.27%81%$98.75%1951 $16.$0.17.25 %31%$92.03%1952 $18.$0.19.66%25%$1 0 1.37%1953 $18.$0.19%33%$98.93%1954 $22.$1.23.46%15%$102.18%1955 $24.$1.12.33%39%$96.61 %1956 $23.$1.83%19%$88.01 %1957 $24.$1.10.29%97%$103.39%1958 $33.$1.38.35%51%$92.42 61 %1959 $33.42 $1.77%80%$96.60%1960 $39.$1.21.84%64%$102.06%1961 $49.$1.44 28.89%66%$99.25%1962 $48.$1.70%33%$104.39%1963 $51.$1.10.29%51%$97.49 82%1964 $58.$1.15.36%4.47%$100.10%1965 $58.$1.99%86%$94.82%1966 $53.49 $2.34%61%$90.-4.55%1967 $49.$2.67%50%$89.-4.78%1968 $51.$2.66%01%$94.75%1969 $42.$2.13.42%8.43%$85.11 %1970 $45.$2.40 12.59%8.44 %$99.34%1971 $44.$2.4 7 26%70%$107.16.22%1972 $43.$2.19%74%$99.37%1973 $32.$2.18.71%10%$96.98%1974 $22.$2.49 25.36%25%$89.63%1975 $30.$2.50.39%63%$96.89%1976 $35.$2.23.53%37%$112.22.21 %1977 $35.$2.21%81%$95.08%
1978 $31.$2.78%75%$91.36%
1979 $28.44 $3.51%11.47%$86.94 %
1980 $27.$3.86%13.39%$86.48 05%
1981 $29.$3.42 20.45%15.66%$86.54%
1982 $36.$3.35.59%12.21%$126.41.86 %
1983 $37. 14 $3.13.36%12.95%$94.83%
1984 $42.$4.24.72%12.39%$104.17.11 %
1985 $48.$4.25.34%10.54%$115.28.16%
1986 $58.$4.28.06%12%$113.23.90%
1987 $49.$4.31 %10.09%$91.49 61%
1988 $53.$4.17.16%10.02%$100.10.71 %
1989 $66.$4.31.48%36%$106.16.13%
1990 $63.47 $4.45 06%60%$97.18%
1991 $77.$4.28.91 %93%$106.41 16.01 %
1992 $76.$4.5.45%64%$102.11.77 %
1993 $81.$4.12.56%74%$99.67%
1994 $66.$4.13.17%68%$100.33%
1995 $81.$4.30.15%97%$107.16.00%
1996 $76.$4.32%57%$104.12.23%
1997 $91.49 $4.47 25.03%07%$105.13.12%
1998 $100.$4.15.04%00%$100.85%
1999 $77.42 $4.18.93%25%$87.61 %
2000 $113.$4.42 51.67 %8.40%$98.76%
2001 $92.$3.14.78%8.46%$99.40 80%
2002 $75.$4.14.41%82%$106.15.16%
AVERAGE 1946-2002 10.28%27%
REALIZED RATE OF RETURN
S&P ELECTRIC COMPANIES
SINGLE-A PUBLIC UTILITY BONDS
EQUITY RISK PREMIUM
EXHBIIT NO.
CASE NO. IPC-O3-
W. AVERA, IPCa
PAGE 1 OF
10.28%
27%
01%
(a) S&P'Security Price I ndex Record (1992), The Ana Ivsts' Ha nd book (1967, 1999 , 2001 , Month Iy Sup p Ie me nt Ma rch 2002).
(b) S&P'Security Price Index Record (1996), Current Statistics (Jan. 1997 , Mar. 1998 , Dec. 1999 , Feb. 2001 , Jan. 2002 , & Jan. 2003).
(c) Computed by adding gain or loss (ending stock price - beginning stock price) to annual dividends and dividing by beginning stock price.
(d) Computed as sum of capital gain or loss plus interest income, divided by beginning price.
Note: Dividend data not available prior to 1946.