HomeMy WebLinkAboutUtilities Preview 04-30-12.pdf
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*D.A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security.
INDUSTRY UPDATE
Institutional Equity Research
April 30, 2012 Utilities Update
Prices: (4/27/12)
Industry:
Utilities
James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA
406.791.7230
jbellessa@dadco.com
Michael Bates
503.603.3045
mbates@dadco.com
Utilities Earnings Previews: Week of 4/30/12
This earnings preview covers eleven utility companies reporting quarterly results in the
next week.
In addition to normal variances related to the timing of customer demand, rate relief,
and operating expenses, abnormal weather conditions had a negative impact on
demand for natural gas and electricity, possibly driving some utility earnings below
expectations. Weather in the Pacific Northwest was the exception to the rule, falling
generally in line with last year and the historical averages. Management will likely
highlight efforts at expense management, which in many cases should offset the
negative margin impacts tied to 1Q weather (assuming near-normal weather
conditions for the remainder of the year).
Looking past the temporary impacts of weather, investors should generally be focusing
on changes to capital spending timelines, as expectations in virtually all aspects of the
industry (particularly relating to electric generating capacity, emissions benchmarks,
and transmission upgrades) continue to evolve.
See Table 1 below and our commentary on each company on the following pages.
For more detailed company information, please refer to our most recent research
reports.
Table 1: Utilities 1Q Earnings Preview
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and Capital IQ consensus
Symbol Rating Price
(4/27/12)
EPS
Estimate
Prior Year
Qtr
Consensus
Estimate
Report
Date Call Date
Scheduled to Report the Week of 4/30/12
ALE* N $41.30 $0.72 $1.07 $0.80 5/2 5/2
AVA* N $26.45 $0.71 $0.73 $0.70 5/2 5/2
BKH* N $33.10 $0.65 $0.59 $0.65 5/3 5/4
GXP* N $20.44 $0.02 $0.08 $0.02 5/3 5/4
IDA* B $40.86 $0.65 $0.60 $0.63 5/3 5/3
LNT* B $45.17 $0.65 $0.68 $0.64 5/4 5/4
MDU* N $22.91 $0.19 $0.22 $0.21 4/30 5/1
NWN* N $45.60 $1.54 $1.53 $1.52 5/4 5/4
POR* B $25.79 $0.77 $0.92 $0.75 5/3 5/3
TEG* N $54.42 $1.58 $1.57 $1.58 5/2 5/3
WEC* N $36.59 $0.73 $0.72 $0.74 5/1 5/1
Remaining to Report
HE* N $26.56 $0.39 $0.30 $0.36 5/8 5/9
MGEE* U $45.82 $0.65 $0.77 $0.65 5/8 n/a
OTTR* N $21.95 $0.25 $0.15 $0.23 5/7 n/a
WR* N $28.66 $0.29 $0.27 $0.27 5/9 5/10
D.A. Davidson & Co.
2
ALLETE is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Wednesday, May 2nd before the market
opens. A conference call with management will be held the same day at 10:00 AM ET/7:00
AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.72 for the
quarter, down sharply from $1.07 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.80. ALE
has provided an EPS guidance range of $2.45-$2.65 for 2012, compared to $2.57 reported for
2011. We are currently forecasting $2.56 per share, slightly below the $2.59 Street
consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Changed quarterly pattern. We believe ALLETE’s revenues will be more back-end
loaded in 2012 than last year, as a larger portion of capital expenditures eligible for current
cost recovery are likely to be posted in the 2H’12 than in 1H’12. We also believe utility
operating and maintenance expenses will be more evenly distributed throughout 2012
than they were in 2010 and 2011, when O&M was disproportionately weighted in the
fourth quarters. Additionally, we do not believe last year’s earnings benefit from an $0.18
per share reversal of a deferred tax liability will be repeated in 1Q’12.
Temperatures. While 1Q’12 temperatures as measured by heating-degree days in
Minnesota Power’s service territory were ~25% warmer than normal and last year, we do
not believe electric usage was radically changed, as usage by weather-sensitive
residential customers is relatively small due to the company’s high industrial and
commercial usage.
Industrial demand. We believe the company’s 12 large industrial users – especially
taconite producers – continued to require electricity at near full production rates.
Additionally, we expect the economy within the company’s service territory continued to
improve in the recent quarter.
New load possibilities. We expect management will continue to discuss the company’s
multi-year, multi-faceted growth opportunities.
We are maintaining a NEUTRAL rating and target price of $42.50, which equates to ~15x the
average of our 2012 and 2013 EPS forecast of non-real estate EPS, plus an estimated $2.50
per share value for ALLETE Properties.
Alliant is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Friday, May 4th before the market opens. A
conference call with management will be held the same day at 10:00 AM ET/7:00 AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.65 for the
quarter, down from $0.68 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.64. LNT has
provided an earnings guidance range of $2.75-$3.05 for 2012. We are currently forecasting
$2.94 per share, compared to the $2.93 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Regulated operations. Temperatures were milder than normal in the first quarter, with
heating-degree days in Alliant’s service territories recorded at ~30% warmer than 1Q’11
and ~25% warmer than average. Though we are unable to predict the impact weather
had on earnings in the quarter, we expect a moderate decline in the utility's gross margin.
Riverside acquisition. WP&L’s purchase of the 600 MW gas-fired Riverside Energy
Center for ~$400 million is on track to be consummated by year-end 2012. The purchase
continues to represent a significant portion of Alliant’s earnings growth in 2013, and will
likely be accomplished without a measurable increase in customer rates.
Columbia Energy Center. Capex tied to the installation of emissions controls at the
Columbia plant should ramp up materially this year, contributing to AFUDC recorded in
2012-2014 and generating cash earnings once completed and rate based.
RMT on the chopping block. Investors will be looking for commentary on the anticipated
divestiture of Alliant’s renewable energy contracting subsidiary (RMT).
BUY rated. Our 12-18 month price target of $49 equates to 15.8x the average of our 2012
and 2013 estimates of $2.94 and $3.25, respectively.
ALLETE, Inc.
(ALE – NEUTRAL – $42.50 target)
Alliant Energy Corp.
(LNT – BUY – $49 target)
D.A. Davidson & Co.
3
Avista is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Wednesday, May 2nd before the market opens.
A conference call with management will be held the same day at 10:30 AM ET/7:30 AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.71 for the
quarter, down moderately from $0.73 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.70.
AVA has provided an EPS guidance range of $1.65-$1.85 for 2012, compared to $1.72
reported for 2011. We are currently forecasting $1.76 per share, slightly below the $1.77
Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Temperatures. Utility usage was likely moderately restrained by winter temperatures (as
measured by heating-degree days) that were 3% and 5% milder in 1Q’12 compared to
average and 1Q’11, respectively.
Hydrogeneration. Streamflow conditions in 2012 will be hard pressed to match 2011,
which was among the best years ever experienced. While 2012 started off dry, ample
moisture in the second half of the quarter likely kept hydrogeneration near normal;
however, we would not expect last year’s $0.05 per share benefit from the Energy
Recovery Mechanism (ERM) in Washington will be fully repeated in 1Q’12. Above
average streamflow forecasts suggest 2012 hydrogeneration will be above normal.
Economy. Much of Avista’s service territory continues to experience a slow to recover
economy. An unemployment rate of 9.9% in March exceeded the national average of
8.2% and compared to 10.6% a year earlier.
Ecova. We are forecasting that the company’s energy management and utility bill paying
business will continue to display earnings growth, despite likely near-term dilution from
recent acquisitions. We are estimating Ecova contributed EPS of $0.04 versus $0.03 a
year ago.
We rate the shares NEUTRAL, with a $26.50 price target (14.7x the average of our 2012 and
2013 EPS estimates of $1.76 and $1.88, respectively).
BKH is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Thursday, May 3rd after the market closes. A
conference call with management will be held the following day at 9:00 AM PT/12:00 PM ET.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.65 for the
quarter, up modestly from $0.64 a year ago (adjusted to exclude a $0.09 mark-to-market
interest rate swap gain and a $0.05 loss from the now-divested energy marketing segment).
The consensus estimate is $0.65. BKH has provided a 2012 EPS guidance range of $2.00-
$2.10, compared to an adjusted $1.69 reported for 2011. We are currently forecasting $2.12
per share for this year, which lies slightly above the $2.11 consensus estimate.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
New generating plants. Earnings growth in 2012 should be boosted by two new power
plants in Pueblo, CO, which went into service on January 1, 2012 at a total investment of
~$491 million.
Mild winter. Temperatures were milder than normal in the first quarter, with heating-
degree days in BKH’s service territories ~15%-30% warmer than 1Q’11 and normal,
depending upon the specific location. Though we are unable to precisely predict the
impact weather had on earnings in the quarter, we expect there were pressures on utility
gross margin, particularly for the gas distribution businesses.
Additional capital expenditures loom. A number of capital projects being planned by
BKH could push the five-year EPS growth prospect well above the 6% rate that we have
been carrying. However, project approvals and construction completions are not certain.
For example, the Colorado Public Utilities Commission recently rejected a settlement
agreement that would have allowed the utility to add an 88-MW natural gas-fired unit at its
Pueblo facility. BKH had hoped to replace generation lost when it retires the aged W.N.
Clark power plant in Fremont County, CO. The utility is considering its options.
NEUTRAL Rated. Our 12-18 month target price of $35 equates to ~16x the average of our
2012 and 2013 EPS estimates of $2.12 and $2.25, respectively.
Avista Corp.
(AVA – NEUTRAL – $26.50 target)
Black Hills Corp.
(BKH – NEUTRAL - $35.00)
D.A. Davidson & Co.
4
Great Plains is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Thursday, May 3rd after the market
closes. A conference call with management will be held the following day at 9:00 AM ET/6:00
AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.02 for the
quarter, down from $0.08 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.02. GXP has
provided an earnings guidance range of $1.20-$1.40 for 2012. We are currently forecasting
$1.23 per share, compared to the $1.30 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Regulated operations. Temperatures were milder than normal in the first quarter, with
heating-degree days in Great Plains’ service territories recorded at ~35% warmer than
1Q’11 and ~30% warmer than average. Margins should have moved moderately higher
due to retail rate increases in the last year, but these benefits were likely offset by higher
operating and interest expenses.
Rate cases filed. In 1Q’12 Great Plains filed new general rate cases in both Missouri and
Kansas. With the La Cygne environmental retrofit staking a significant claim on GXP’s
cash flow over the next few years, a large portion of its financial stability is tied to the
outcome of these proceedings. We remain hopeful the utility will make material headway
in reducing the effects of regulatory lag, but note that significant compromises are likely to
be made, given the size and complexity of the rate cases.
Transmission joint venture. The recently-announced joint venture with American
Electric Power (AEP - $38.73) will likely generate a fair amount of discussion on the call.
Formation of the venture should result in GXP handing over development rights for its
SPP projects, allowing the utility to more easily manage the need to fund its extensive
capital budget tied to environmental standards and updating its existing system.
NEUTRAL rated. Our 12-18 month price target of $20.50 equates to 14.7x the average of our
2012 and 2013 EPS estimates of $1.23 and $1.55, respectively.
IDACORP is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Thursday, May 3rd before the market
opens. A conference call with management will be held the same day at 4:30 PM ET/1:30 PM
PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.65 for the
quarter versus $0.60 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.63. IDA has provided
an EPS guidance range of $3.00-$3.15 for 2012, compared to $3.36 reported for 2011. We
are currently forecasting $3.08 per share for 2012, which matches the consensus estimate.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Temperatures. 1Q’12 temperatures as measured by heating-degree days in Idaho
Power’s service territory were ~12%-18% warmer than normal and last year, depending
on the location, which should be a headwind to the quarter’s progression. We believe this
drag will be offset by improved cost recovery rules and an improved economy.
Hydroelectric generation. While current snowpacks are below normal for the Snake
River drainage, we believe above average reservoir levels, good soil moisture, and spring
rains will allow Idaho Power to run its hydroelectric system near normal levels in 2012.
The annual hydroelectric generation comparison however, should be lower, as last year’s
hydro power conditions were at a generational high.
Langley Gulch. Key to 2012’s forecast is the assumption the Langley Gulch power plant
will be commercially operating at mid-year 2012, with the utility allowed a return
concurrently with the plant’s start-up. Management should provide a construction status
update and discuss its request to recover the new plant’s costs.
BUY rated. Our target price of $48.50 equates to ~15.4x the average of our revised 2012 and
2013 EPS estimates of $3.08 and $3.20, respectively.
Great Plains Energy
(GXP – NEUTRAL – $20.50 target)
IDACORP, Inc.
(IDA – BUY – $48.50 target)
D.A. Davidson & Co.
5
Integrys is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Wednesday, May 2nd after the market
closes. A conference call with management will be held the following day at 9:00 AM ET/6:00
AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $1.58 for the
quarter, up from $1.57 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $1.58. TEG has
provided an earnings guidance range of $3.35-$3.55 for 2012. We are currently forecasting
$3.45 per share, compared to the $3.49 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Regulated operations. Temperatures were milder than normal in the first quarter, with
heating-degree days in TEG’s service territories recorded at ~30% warmer than 1Q’11
and ~27% warmer than average. Though we are unable to predict the impact weather
had on earnings in the quarter, margins should have been somewhat shielded by
decoupling and weather normalization mechanisms in certain jurisdictions. Overall, we
expect slightly higher retail margins in the quarter due to increased retail rates, partially
offset by higher operating expenses.
Columbia Energy Center. Capex tied to the installation of emissions controls at the
Columbia plant should ramp up materially this year, contributing to AFUDC recorded in
2012-2014 and generating cash earnings once completed and rate based.
NEUTRAL rated. Our 12-18 month price target of $52 equates to 14.8x the average of our
2012 and 2013 EPS estimates of $3.45 and $3.55, respectively.
MDU Resources is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Monday, April 30th after the market
closes. A conference call will be held the following day at 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.19 for the
quarter, down from $0.22 reported last year. The company pre-released ~$0.19 on April 18,
2012, matching our forecast. MDU reaffirmed EPS guidance of $1.00-$1.25 for 2012. We are
currently forecasting $1.21 per share, which is moderately above the $1.18 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Natural gas & oil. We are forecasting an 18% increase in oil production to ~946,000
barrels and an average realized oil price increase of ~7% to $78/bbl, up from nearly $73 a
year ago. We are also projecting a 10% production decline in natural gas to ~10.6 Bcf,
with a price decline of ~22% to $3.00/mcf. Oil production should increase 20%-30% this
year, with price spreads improving during the remainder of 2012, while gas production will
be curtailed. We are forecasting a 14% decline in natural gas production in 2012.
Regulated segments. Utility results were adversely impacted by 1Q temperatures, which
compared to colder-than-normal temperatures a year earlier. We are forecasting a
modest decline in the EPS contribution ($0.19 versus $0.20) from the combined electric
and gas utility businesses, despite rate base growth and rate relief in the past year. We
are assuming earnings from the Pipeline & Energy Services segment were held back by
narrow pricing differentials for natural gas storage.
Construction segments. Management said in the prerelease that the Construction
Services group had a strong quarter, which suggests our flat EPS forecast of $0.02 is too
conservative. On the other hand, management said it is making changes at its
Construction Materials group to improve results, suggesting that our assumption of
narrowing loss forecast of $0.09 per share versus $0.11 may be too ambitious.
NEUTRAL rated. Our $23 price target equates to an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.9x the average of
our 2012 and 2013 estimates.
Integrys Energy Group, Inc.
(TEG – NEUTRAL – $52 target)
MDU Resources Group, Inc.
(MDU – NEUTRAL – $23 target)
D.A. Davidson & Co.
6
NW Natural is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Friday, May 4th before the market opens.
A conference call with management will be held the same day at 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $1.54 for the
quarter, up from $1.53 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $1.52. NWN has
provided an earnings guidance range of $2.35-$2.55 for 2012. We are currently forecasting
$2.52 per share, compared to the $2.56 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Core utility. Utility earnings should be roughly flat with 1Q’11, which was boosted by
gains from commodity cost sharing ($0.02 per share). Temperatures were unlikely to be a
major driver in the first quarter, which were generally in line with 1Q’11 and the historical
average and weather normalization covering a majority of the utility’s customer base.
Gas storage. With the assumed absence of volatility in natural gas prices, earnings in
this segment are likely to show only subdued growth. We believe market conditions are
unlikely to attract sufficient revenue in the next few years to materially exceed NWN’s cost
of operating and maintaining its expanded capacity portfolio.
Investment in gas reserves. NWN’s investment in Wyoming-based natural gas reserves
appears to be progressing smoothly and providing a welcome source of incremental
earnings. Though we would view an expansion of the utility’s original development plan
as a strong catalyst for additional growth, stakeholders appear most likely to allow the
investments to mature before changing course.
General rate case. Investors will be focusing on the utility’s general rate case in Oregon,
in which NW Natural is seeking a $44 million (+6.2%) increase in retail rates, based on a
10.3% ROE and 50% equity capital. A final order should be handed down in time for rates
to take effect on January 1, 2013.
NEUTRAL rated. Our 12-18 month target price of $46 equates to 17.6x the average of our
2012 and 2013 EPS estimates of $2.52 and $2.70, respectively.
Portland General is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Thursday, May 3rd before the
market opens. A conference call with management will be held the same day at 11:00 AM
ET/8:00 AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.77 for the
quarter, down from $0.92 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.75. POR has
provided an earnings guidance range of $1.85-$2.00 for 2012. We are currently forecasting
$1.93 per share, compared to the $1.90 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
Regulated operations. We are modeling slightly higher margins when compared with
1Q’11, driven by a slightly larger customer base. The utility faces a difficult comparison
with 1Q’11, due to last year’s tailwinds from favorable weather ($0.05 per share) and
hydro conditions ($0.04). Operating costs were likely higher in the quarter, leading to a
likely decline in earnings (there have been no retail rate increases handed down in the last
year). Temperatures were unlikely to be a major driver, with heating-degree days
recorded generally in line with historical averages.
New electric generation. In January, regulators in Oregon adopted a procedural
schedule for the utility’s RFPs. Investors should be monitoring the progress of these
proceedings, as the addition of baseload, peaking, and renewable energy resources
remain a primary long-term driver for the stock.
BUY rated. Our 12-18 month target price of $29 equates to 14.5x the average of our 2012
and 2013 EPS estimates of $1.93 and $2.05, respectively
Northwest Natural Gas Co.
(NWN – NEUTRAL – $46 target)
Portland General Electric Co.
(POR – BUY – $29 target)
D.A. Davidson & Co.
7
Wisconsin Energy is scheduled to report 1Q’12 earnings on Tuesday, May 1st before the
market opens. A conference call with management will be held the same day at 2:00 PM
ET/11:00 AM PT.
Earnings estimates, guidance & expectations. We are forecasting EPS of $0.73 for the
quarter, up from $0.72 reported last year. The consensus estimate is $0.74. WEC has
provided an earnings guidance range of $2.24-$2.29 for 2012. We are currently forecasting
$2.25 per share, compared to the $2.27 Street consensus.
Key Drivers and Areas of Focus:
General rate cases filed. Wisconsin Energy filed 2013 test year general rate cases for
its Wisconsin-based operations in March. In total, WEPCO and WG requested a
$236 million (roughly 5.5%) annual revenue increase, based on an electric and gas rate
base of ~$5.5 billion. There was not a request to change the utility’s allowed ROEs or
capital structure. Wisconsin’s relatively constructive regulatory environment gives us
confidence the rate cases should be resolved in time for new rates to take effect by
January 2013, and we expect the proceedings will drive the stock price through 2012.
Weather impact should be offset by year-end. Margins likely moved lower than the
year-ago quarter, largely due to extremely mild winter temperatures (heating degree days
were ~25% below average and 1Q’11 levels). Full-year guidance has remained
unchanged despite the dimmed outlook for the quarter, as management expects the
headwind of adverse temperatures to be largely offset by improved recovery of fuel costs,
reduced interest expenses, and closer controls on operating costs.
NEUTRAL rated. Our 12-18 month price target is $36.00, which equates to 15.6x the average
of our 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates of $2.25 and $2.38, respectively.
Wisconsin Energy Corp.
(WEC – NEUTRAL – $36 target)
D.A. Davidson & Co.
8
ALLETE, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
*Results are adjusted to exclude the impact of nonrecurring items and discontinued operations.
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010* 1Q'11* 2Q'11* 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12E 2Q'12E 3Q'12E 4Q'12E 2012E 2013E
Operating Revenue:
Regulated Operations $835.5 $223.0 $201.8 $207.4 $219.7 $851.9 $221.1 $206.4 $220.1 $229.5 $877.0 $909.6
Investments & Other 71.5 19.2 18.1 19.5 19.5 76.3 19.5 18.5 19.8 19.5 77.3 79.0
Total Operating Revenue $907.0 $242.2 $219.9 $226.9 $239.2 $928.2 $240.6 $224.9 $239.9 $249.0 $954.3 $988.6
Operating Expenses:
Fuel and Purchased Power 325.1 79.0 76.0 74.8 76.8 306.6 79.6 78.4 81.4 81.5 320.9 337.4
Operating and Other Expenses 365.6 90.1 95.7 90.5 104.9 381.2 94.0 94.7 94.7 95.6 379.0 382.9
Depreciation 80.5 22.3 22.1 22.7 23.3 90.4 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 94.4 97.6
Operating Expenses 771.2 191.4 193.8 188.0 205.0 778.2 196.9 196.6 199.8 201.0 794.3 817.9
EBITD $216.3 $73.1 $48.2 $61.6 $57.5 $240.4 $67.0 $51.8 $63.8 $71.9 $254.4 $268.3
Operating Income $135.8 $50.8 $26.1 $38.9 $34.2 $150.0 $43.7 $28.3 $40.1 $48.0 $160.0 $170.7
Interest Expense (39.2) (10.7) (11.0) (10.9) (11.0) (43.6) (11.2) (11.3) (11.4) (11.5) (45.4) (47.6)
Equity Earnings in ATC 17.9 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 18.4 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 19.7 21.4
Other Income (Expense) 4.6 0.8 1.0 0.5 2.1 4.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.2 3.6
Pretax Income $119.1 $45.3 $20.7 $33.2 $30.0 $129.2 $38.1 $22.7 $34.5 $42.4 $137.5 $148.1
Income Tax Expense 40.3 8.2 6.7 12.7 10.9 38.5 11.6 6.7 10.4 12.9 41.6 37.1
Effective Tax Rate 33.8% 18.1% 32.4% 38.3% 36.3% 29.8% 30.5% 29.5% 30.3% 30.4% 30.3% 25.1%
Minority Interest (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.4)
Income From Continuing Operations $79.3 $37.2 $14.1 $20.5 $19.1 $90.9 $26.5 $16.1 $24.1 $29.6 $96.3 $111.4
Discontinued Operations
Net Income $79.3 $37.2 $14.1 $20.5 $19.1 $90.9 $26.5 $16.1 $24.1 $29.6 $96.3 $111.4
Average Diluted Shares 34.3 34.7 35.1 35.7 36.1 35.4 36.9 37.4 37.9 38.4 37.7 39.7
EPS - Continuing Operations $2.31 $1.07 $0.40 $0.57 $0.53 $2.57 $0.72 $0.43 $0.64 $0.77 $2.56 $2.81
Segment EPS:
Regulated Operations $2.43 $1.11 $0.44 $0.67 $0.55 $2.76 $0.76 $0.48 $0.68 $0.81 $2.73 $2.96
Investments & Other (0.12) (0.03) (0.04) (0.09) (0.02) (0.19) (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.17) (0.15)
EPS - Continuing Operations $2.31 $1.07 $0.40 $0.57 $0.53 $2.57 $0.72 $0.43 $0.64 $0.77 $2.56 $2.81
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Average Assets (ttm)3.2% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 4.8% 4.7% 2.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4%
Return on Average Equity (ttm)8.3% 9.2% 8.5% 8.5% 8.8% 8.8% 12.6% 12.2% 6.0% 8.6% 8.9% 9.4%
Gross Margin 64.2% 67.4% 65.4% 67.0% 67.9% 67.0% 66.9% 65.1% 66.1% 67.3% 66.4% 65.9%
EBITDA Margin 23.8% 30.2% 21.9% 27.1% 24.0% 25.9% 27.8% 23.0% 26.6% 28.9% 26.7% 27.1%
Operating Margin 15.0% 21.0% 11.9% 17.1% 14.3% 16.2% 18.2% 12.6% 16.7% 19.3% 16.8% 17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.1% 18.7% 9.4% 14.6% 12.6% 13.9% 15.8% 10.1% 14.4% 17.0% 14.4% 15.0%
Net Margin 8.7% 15.4% 6.4% 9.0% 8.0% 9.8% 11.0% 7.1% 10.1% 11.9% 10.1% 11.3%
Dividends per Common Share $1.76 $0.445 $0.445 $0.445 $0.445 $1.78 $0.460 $0.460 $0.460 $0.460 $1.84 $1.86
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 76.2% 68.3% 73.2% 73.0% 69.0% 69.3% 70.3% 72.6% 77.3% 72.1% 72.0% 66.2%
Dividend Growth Rate 0.0% 1.1% 3.4% 1.1%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
9
Alliant Energy Corp. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
*Results are adjusted to exclude the impact of nonrecurring items and discontinued operations.
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010* 1Q'11* 2Q'11* 3Q'11* 4Q'11* 2011* 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues:
Electric Utility $2,674.2 $620.3 $620.5 $796.9 $598.1 $2,635.8 $593.9 $612.4 $778.4 $612.5 $2,597.1 $2,763.4
Gas Utility 480.6 229.0 67.1 46.4 134.2 476.7 222.1 65.5 45.4 175.6 508.6 519.1
Other Utility 64.6 16.7 13.3 15.8 16.2 62.0 15.5 13.6 14.0 15.0 58.0 60.0
Non-Regulated 196.7 79.0 118.6 162.5 130.7 490.8 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 52.0 82.0
Total Operating Revenues $3,417.2 $945.0 $819.5 $1,021.6 $879.2 $3,665.3 $844.4 $704.5 $850.8 $816.1 $3,215.8 $3,424.5
Electric Production Fuel & Purchased Power 1,098.9 251.8 247.9 295.5 226.5 1,021.7 239.7 244.2 288.3 232.8 1,005.0 1,030.3
Electric Transmission Service 279.5 73.6 80.1 88.9 81.2 323.8 77.3 84.1 93.3 85.3 340.0 350.2
Cost of Gas Sold 304.0 156.4 34.8 19.8 84.2 295.2 151.7 34.0 19.4 120.2 325.2 331.7
Gross Margin $1,734.8 $463.2 $456.7 $617.4 $487.3 $2,024.6 $375.8 $342.2 $449.8 $377.8 $1,545.6 $1,712.4
Other Operation and Maintenance 597.4 155.6 153.0 141.6 153.6 603.8 150.0 147.5 136.7 150.0 584.1 616.2
Non-Regulated Operation and Maintenance 169.5 69.9 108.0 178.5 134.5 490.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 17.2 19.2
Depreciation and Amortization 291.3 78.8 82.2 81.3 81.5 323.8 85.1 85.6 85.1 85.1 340.7 370.6
Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 99.6 26.1 25.6 25.4 24.2 101.3 26.6 25.9 25.7 26.1 104.2 112.8
Total Operating Expenses $1,157.8 $330.4 $368.8 $426.8 $393.8 $1,519.8 $265.9 $263.3 $251.7 $265.4 $1,046.3 $1,118.8
EBITD $901.9 $221.8 $179.0 $281.6 $186.1 $868.5 $209.7 $178.9 $299.8 $212.5 $901.0 $1,030.1
Operating Income $577.0 $132.8 $87.9 $190.6 $93.5 $504.8 $109.9 $78.9 $198.1 $112.4 $499.3 $593.5
Interest Expense $163.0 $40.6 $40.4 $38.7 $38.6 $158.3 $39.4 $39.5 $39.6 $44.6 $163.1 $198.4
Equity (Income) Loss from Investments, net (38.1) (9.9) (9.6) (10.1) (9.7) (39.3) (9.8) (10.1) (10.3) (10.1) (40.2) (42.6)
AFUDC (18.0) (3.1) (2.7) (2.8) (3.4) (12.0) (6.8) (6.2) (8.2) (6.9) (28.2) (35.5)
Interest Income and Other (4.0) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (2.0) (4.3)(0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)(3.0) (3.0)
Pretax Income $474.1 $106.0 $60.6 $165.5 $70.0 $402.1 $87.9 $56.5 $177.8 $85.5 $407.6 $476.2
Income Taxes 145.2 24.5 8.3 37.5 9.0 79.3 11.8 4.6 35.1 13.7 65.2 100.0
Effective Tax Rate 30.6% 23.1% 13.7% 22.7% 12.9% 19.7% 13.5% 8.1% 19.7% 16.0% 16.0% 21.0%
Income from Continuing Operations $324.5 $81.5 $52.3 $128.0 $61.0 $322.8 $76.0 $51.9 $142.7 $71.8 $342.4 $376.2
Discontinued Operations (1.7) 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.7 0.4
Preferred Dividend 18.7 6.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 18.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 15.9 15.9
Net Income for Common $304.1 $76.6 $48.1 $124.1 $57.0 $305.8 $72.7 $48.6 $139.4 $68.5 $329.2 $360.7
Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 110.4 110.6 110.7 110.7 110.7 110.7 111.0 111.0 111.0 111.0 111.0 111.0
Diluted EPS - GAAP $2.60 $0.66 $0.46 $1.10 $0.51 $2.74 $0.65 $0.43 $1.25 $0.61 $2.94 $3.25
Adjusted EPS by Segment:
Regulated Utilities $2.65 $0.62 $0.35 $1.37 $0.44 $2.77 $0.55 $0.37 $1.32 $0.54 $2.79 $2.98
Nonregulated & Parent 0.10 0.06 0.09 (0.25) 0.08 (0.01) 0.10 0.06 (0.07) 0.07 0.17 0.27
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $2.75 $0.68 $0.44 $1.12 $0.52 $2.76 $0.65 $0.43 $1.25 $0.61 $2.94 $3.25
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Equity (ttm) 10.8% 11.6% 11.4% 10.5% 10.3% 10.3% 10.1% 10.0% 10.4% 10.6% 10.6% 11.1%
Return on Assets (ttm) 3.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4%
Return on Capital (ttm) 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
Gross Margin 50.8% 49.0% 55.7% 60.4% 55.4% 55.2% 44.5% 48.6% 52.9% 46.3% 48.1% 50.0%
EBITDA Margin 26.4% 23.5% 21.8% 27.6% 21.2% 23.7% 24.8% 25.4% 35.2% 26.0% 28.0% 30.1%
Operating Margin 16.9% 14.1% 10.7% 18.7% 10.6% 13.8% 13.0% 11.2% 23.3% 13.8% 15.5% 17.3%
Pretax Margin 13.9% 11.2% 7.4% 16.2% 8.0% 11.0% 10.4% 8.0% 20.9% 10.5% 12.7% 13.9%
Net Margin 8.9% 8.1% 5.9% 12.1% 6.5% 8.3% 8.6% 6.9% 16.4% 8.4% 10.2% 10.5%
Dividends Per Common Share $1.58 $0.425 $0.425 $0.425 $0.425 $1.70 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $1.80 $1.89
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 57.5% 54.1% 55.1% 59.9% 61.5% 61.6% 63.1% 64.2% 62.2% 61.2% 61.2% 58.2%
Dividend Growth Rate 5.3% 7.6% 5.9% 5.0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
10
Avista Corp. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues:
Utility Revenues $1,417.8 $437.7 $320.0 $302.0 $381.9 $1,441.5 $430.1 $322.4 $301.7 $390.2 $1,444.4 $1,552.5
Non-Utility Revenues 140.9 38.9 40.6 41.7 57.1 178.3 66.6 67.6 68.6 69.6 272.2 289.6
Operating Revenues $1,558.7 $476.6 $360.6 $343.7 $438.9 $1,619.8 $496.7 $389.9 $370.2 $459.8 $1,716.6 $1,842.1
Resource Costs 795.1 248.1 155.8 171.4 214.8 790.0 236.1 152.5 165.2 212.2 766.0 852.4
Gross Margin $763.7 $228.5 $204.8 $172.3 $224.2 $829.7 $260.6 $237.4 $205.1 $247.6 $950.6 $989.7
Operating Expenses:
Other Operating Expenses $352.5 $90.9 $101.3 $92.3 $112.6 $397.2 $119.7 $129.5 $121.6 $128.1 $498.8 $517.0
Depreciation And Amortization 107.6 27.7 28.2 28.3 29.3 113.6 28.6 29.3 29.3 30.0 117.1 121.1
Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 73.4 25.0 19.7 16.8 21.8 83.3 25.7 20.3 17.3 22.5 85.8 84.6
Total Operating Expenses $533.5 $143.6 $149.3 $137.4 $163.8 $594.1 $174.0 $179.0 $168.2 $180.5 $701.8 $722.6
EBITD $337.8 $112.5 $83.8 $63.2 $89.7 $349.2 $115.2 $87.6 $66.1 $97.0 $366.0 $388.1
Operating Income $230.2 $84.8 $55.5 $34.9 $60.4 $235.6 $86.6 $58.4 $36.9 $67.1 $248.8 $267.0
Net Interest Expense (76.1) (18.2) (17.6) (17.9) (17.6) (71.3) (19.3) (19.0) (19.5) (19.1) (77.0) (78.6)
Other Income (Deductions), Net (8.0) (0.6) (0.8) (1.6) (1.1) (4.2) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6
Income Before Income Taxes $146.1 $66.0 $37.1 $15.4 $41.7 $160.2 $67.5 $39.5 $17.5 $48.1 $172.7 $189.0
Income Taxes 51.2 23.6 13.6 3.7 15.7 56.6 25.1 14.8 6.6 18.0 64.6 70.6
Effective Tax Rate 35.0% 35.8% 36.6% 24.2% 37.7% 35.4% 37.2% 37.4% 38.0% 37.3% 37.4% 37.4%
Net Income From Continuing Ops $94.9 $42.4 $23.5 $11.6 $26.0 $103.5 $42.4 $24.7 $10.9 $30.2 $108.1 $118.4
Less: Minority Interest 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 3.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8 3.3
Net Income $92.4 $41.9 $23.0 $10.7 $24.6 $100.2 $41.7 $24.1 $10.1 $29.4 $105.3 $115.1
Average Diluted Shares 55.8 57.4 58.1 58.2 58.6 58.1 58.6 59.1 59.5 60.0 59.3 61.2
Diluted EPS $1.65 $0.73 $0.39 $0.18 $0.42 $1.72 $0.71 $0.41 $0.17 $0.49 $1.77 $1.88
Diluted EPS by Segment:
Avista Utilities $1.55 $0.70 $0.36 $0.13 $0.38 $1.56 $0.68 $0.37 $0.13 $0.45 $1.62 $1.70
Ecova 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.17 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.19 0.21
Other (0.03) 0.00 0.00 (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.04) (0.03)
Diluted EPS $1.65 $0.73 $0.39 $0.18 $0.42 $1.72 $0.71 $0.41 $0.17 $0.49 $1.77 $1.88
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Average Equity (ttm)8.3% 9.5% 9.1% 8.8% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.5% 8.4% 8.7%
Return on Average Assets (ttm)2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6%
Return on Capital (ttm)3.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3%
Gross Margin 49.0% 47.9% 56.8% 50.1% 51.1% 51.2% 52.5% 60.9% 55.4% 53.8% 55.4% 53.7%
EBITDA Margin 21.7% 23.6% 23.2% 18.4% 20.4% 21.6% 23.2% 22.5% 17.9% 21.1% 21.3% 21.1%
Operating Margin 14.8% 17.8% 15.4% 10.1% 13.8% 14.5% 17.4% 15.0% 10.0% 14.6% 14.5% 14.5%
Pretax Margin 9.4% 13.9% 10.3% 4.5% 9.5% 9.9% 13.6% 10.1% 4.7% 10.5% 10.1% 10.3%
Net Margin 5.9% 8.8% 6.4% 3.1% 5.6% 6.2% 8.4% 6.2% 2.7% 6.4% 6.1% 6.2%
Dividends Per Common Share $1.000 $0.275 $0.275 $0.275 $0.275 $1.100 $0.290 $0.290 $0.290 $0.290 $1.160 $1.200
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 60.4% 55.0% 58.6% 61.3% 63.8% 63.8% 44.4% 49.8% 53.2% 65.2% 65.2% 70.4%
Dividend Growth Rate 23.5% 10.0% 5.5% 3.4%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
11
Black Hills Corp. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010* 1Q'11* 2Q'11* 3Q'11* 4Q'11* 2011* 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operatin Revenues:
Utilities $1,109.8 $374.7 $236.1 $223.7 $321.1 $1,155.5 $380.7 $250.0 $241.3 $339.8 $1,211.9 $1,248.7
Non-Re ulated Ener 109.9 28.6 37.1 32.7 18.3 116.7 34.6 39.5 44.4 37.7 156.3 155.9
Total Operatin Revenues: $1,219.7 $403.3 $273.1 $256.4 $339.4 $1,272.2 $415.3 $289.6 $285.8 $377.5 $1,368.2 $1,404.5
Fuel, Purchased Power, and Cost of Gas Sold 567.0 210.5 103.8 86.1 174.5 575.0 190.8 101.8 89.2 161.6 543.3 557.6
Gross Mar in $652.7 $192.8 $169.3 $170.3 $164.8 $697.2 $224.6 $187.8 $196.6 $216.0 $824.9 $847.0
Operatin Expenses:
Operations & Maintenance - Utilities 251.4 67.4 58.7 58.3 63.1 247.5 80.7 65.0 65.8 70.4 281.9 290.5
Operations & Maintenance - Non-Re ulated 71.7 29.2 28.4 27.9 8.0 93.5 26.1 26.0 27.3 26.8 106.2 108.3
Depreciation, Depletion And Amortization 126.6 32.0 32.3 33.4 37.9 135.6 37.9 38.2 38.6 39.1 153.8 157.7
Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 27.6 8.2 7.2 9.1 9.2 33.7 9.5 9.1 9.2 9.3 37.1 37.8
Gain On Sale Of Interests in Assets 8.9 0.0
Other Operatin Expenses 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7
Total Operatin Expenses $469.3 $137.1 $126.7 $128.9 $321.1 $511.0 $154.2 $138.3 $140.9 $145.6 $579.0 $594.4
EBITD $313.2 $87.7 $75.0 $74.8 $63.1 $321.8 $108.2 $87.7 $94.3 $109.5 $399.7 $410.3
Operatin Income $183.4 $55.7 $42.6 $41.4 $63.1 $186.2 $70.3 $49.5 $55.7 $70.4 $245.9 $252.6
Interest Expense, net 90.6 23.9 23.2 23.2 21.0 91.4 26.3 26.6 26.2 26.0 105.1 105.4
Interest Rate Swap - Unrealized Loss Gain, excluded 15.2 5.5 7.8 38.2 1.4 42.0
Investment Income 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2
AFDUC-Equit 3.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8
Othe 2.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.0
Income Before Taxes And Min. Interest $98.9 $33.4 $20.6 $19.5 $0.4 $99.5 $45.0 $23.9 $30.5 $45.4 $144.8 $151.1
Equit In Earn. Of Uncons. Affiliates 1.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2
Income Taxes ad usted for non-recurrin items 22.2 11.0 7.7 5.3 5.8 18.2 16.0 8.7 10.9 15.3 50.8 51.9
Effective Tax Rate 22.1% 32.0% 37.6% 27.1% 125.2% 18.1% 35.6% 36.2% 35.5% 33.5% 35.0% 34.1%
Income From Continuin O erations $78.3 $23.3 $12.9 $14.2 $0.4 $82.4 $29.1 $15.3 $19.7 $30.3 $94.3 $100.4
Discontinued Operations 5.5 9.4 9.4
Net Income for Common $83.8 $23.3 $12.9 $14.2 $0.4 $91.7 $29.1 $15.3 $19.7 $30.3 $94.3 $100.4
Average Diluted Shares 39.1 39.8 39.8 39.1 42.3 40.1 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.5
Diluted EPS - GAAP $1.76 $0.68 $0.19 ($0.27) $0.60 $1.24 $0.65 $0.34 $0.44 $0.68 $2.12 #$2.25
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $1.67 $0.59 $0.32 $0.37 $0.46 $1.69 $0.65 $0.34 $0.44 $0.68 $2.12 $2.25
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Equity (ttm)7.7% 5.8% 6.3% 6.2% 4.3% 8.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.2% 7.7% 7.7% 8.0%Return on Assets (ttm)2.4% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Return on Capital (ttm)1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% -0.4% 1.2% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
EBITDA Margin 25.7% 21.7% 27.4% 29.2% 20.2% 25.3% 26.1% 30.3% 33.0% 29.0% 29.2% 29.2%Operating Margin 15.0% 13.8% 15.6% 16.1% 8.9% 14.6% 16.9% 17.1% 19.5% 18.6% 18.0% 18.0%
Pretax Margin 8.1% 8.3% 7.5% 7.6% 2.5% 7.8% 10.8% 8.2% 10.7% 12.0% 10.6% 10.8%
Net Margin 6.9% 5.8% 4.7% 5.5% 1.4% 7.2% 7.0% 5.3% 6.9% 8.0% 6.9% 7.1%
Dividends Per Common Share $1.440 $0.365 $0.365 $0.365 $0.365 $1.460 $0.370 $0.370 $0.370 $0.370 $1.480 $1.500
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 86.2% 90.4% 83.9%84.6% 84.0% 86.4% 81.1% 80.5% 77.5% 69.6% 69.6% 66.7%
Dividend Growth Rate 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
12
Great Plains Energy, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues $2,255.5 $492.9 $565.1 $773.7 $486.3 $2,318.0 $523.0 $598.1 $768.6 $484.1 $2,373.8 $2,537.5
Fuel 430.7 104.9 114.4 146.5 118.0 483.8 136.7 146.2 172.8 109.3 565.1 578.7
Purchased Power 213.8 54.9 55.4 68.1 25.0 203.4 34.2 36.6 43.2 27.3 141.3 144.7
Transmission of Electricity by Others 27.4 7.5 7.0 8.6 7.1 30.2 7.4 7.0 8.0 6.7 29.0 29.2
Gross Margin $1,583.6 $325.6 $388.3 $550.5 $336.2 $1,600.6 $344.7 $408.4 $544.6 $340.8 $1,638.4 $1,784.9
Other Operating Expenses:
Operating & Maintenance 602.5 157.5 161.1 169.1 170.5 658.2 165.1 165.1 170.6 176.1 676.9 713.6
Voluntary Separation Program 9.7 3.0 12.7
Depreciation & Amortization 331.6 72.4 67.6 65.9 67.2 273.1 70.4 69.9 69.9 70.4 280.7 293.6
General Taxes 155.1 42.0 40.3 52.3 36.3 170.9 41.8 41.3 52.3 38.5 173.9 183.3
Other 22.1 2.8 0.7 0.5 1.9 5.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0
Total Other Operating Expenses $1,111.3 $284.4 $272.7 $287.8 $275.9 $1,120.8 $278.4 $277.3 $293.8 $286.1 $1,135.4 $1,194.5
EBITDA (Excluding Special Items) $837.6 $124.3 $189.0 $340.6 $125.5 $779.6 $135.8 $200.1 $319.8 $124.3 $780.0 $882.3
Operating Income $472.3 $41.2 $115.6 $262.7 $60.3 $479.8 $66.3 $131.1 $250.8 $54.7 $503.0 $590.4
Non-Operating Income 43.9 3.6 0.8 1.4 0.1 5.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 6.0
Non-Operating Expenses (19.5) (2.2) (2.8) (1.3) (1.9) (8.2)(1.5) (1.5) (1.5) (1.5)(6.0) (6.0)
Interest Charges (184.8) (44.9) (50.3) (60.8) (62.4) (218.4) (60.7) (58.4) (49.9) (50.0) (219.1) (227.2)
Pretax Income $311.9 ($2.3) $63.3 $202.0 ($3.9) $259.1 $5.1 $72.2 $200.4 $4.2 $281.9 $363.2
Income Tax Expense (99.0) 4.6 (19.8) (75.4) 5.8 (84.8) (1.7) (24.5) (68.1) (1.4) (95.9) (123.5)
Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 200.0% 31.3% 37.3% 148.7% 32.7%34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%34.0% 34.0%
Net Loss from Equity Investments & Other (1.0) (0.1)0.0 (0.1)0.0 0.0
Net Income - Continuing Operations $211.9 $2.3 $43.4 $126.6 $1.9 $174.2 $3.4 $47.7 $132.3 $2.8 $186.1 $239.7
Preferred Stock Dividend 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.6
Noncontrolling Interest (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Earnings for Common $210.1 $2.0 $43.0 $126.1 $1.7 $172.8 $3.0 $47.2 $131.8 $2.4 $184.4 $238.1
Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 136.9 138.2 138.9 138.3 139.2 138.7 137.4 142.1 153.5 153.5 146.6 153.6
Diluted EPS - GAAP $1.53 $0.01 $0.31 $0.91 $0.01 $1.25 $0.02 $0.33 $0.86 $0.02 $1.23 $1.55
Non-GAAP Adjustments to EPS:
Impairments/Disallowances ($0.14) ($0.03) ($0.03)
Voluntary Separation Program ($0.04) ($0.01) ($0.05)
Wolf Creek Outage ($0.05) ($0.05)
Missouri River Flooding Impacts ($0.09) ($0.09)
Other $0.05
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $1.62 $0.08 $0.37 $1.00 $0.01 $1.47 $0.02 $0.33 $0.86 $0.02 $1.23 $1.55
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Equity (ttm) 7.5% 6.7% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 7.1%
Return on Assets (ttm) 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5%
Return on Capital (ttm) 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4%
Gross Margin 70.2% 66.1% 68.7% 71.2% 69.1% 69.1% 65.9% 68.3% 70.9% 70.4% 69.0% 70.3%
EBITDA Margin 37.1% 25.2% 33.5% 44.0% 25.8% 33.6% 26.0% 33.5% 41.6% 25.7% 32.9% 34.8%
Operating Margin 20.9% 8.4% 20.5% 34.0% 12.4% 20.7% 12.7% 21.9% 32.6% 11.3% 21.2% 23.3%
Pretax Margin 13.8% -0.5% 11.2% 26.1% -0.8% 11.2% 1.0% 12.1% 26.1% 0.9% 11.9% 14.3%
Net Margin 9.3% 0.4% 7.6% 16.3% 0.3% 7.5% 0.6% 7.9% 17.2% 0.5% 7.8% 9.4%
Dividends per Common Share $0.8300 $0.2075 $0.2075 $0.2075 $0.2125 $0.8350 $0.2125 $0.2125 $0.2125 $0.2189 $0.8564 $0.8799
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 51.0% 53.3% 56.9% 56.1% 57.2% 57.2% 59.9% 62.0% 69.5% 69.7% 69.7% 56.8%
Dividend Growth 0.0%0.6% 2.6% 2.7%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
13
IDACORP, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12E 2Q'12E 3Q'12E 4Q'12E 2012E 2013E
Operating Revenues:
Electric Utility $1,033.1 $251.1 $233.9 $308.0 $229.7 $1,022.7 $257.6 $241.2 $340.3 $243.3 $1,082.5 $1,125.9
Diversified Operations 3.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0
Total Revenues $1,036.0 $251.5 $235.0 $309.6 $230.6 $1,026.8 $258.6 $242.2 $341.3 $244.3 $1,086.5 $1,129.9
Operating Expenses:
Power Supply Expenses $354.7 $86.3 $71.6 $97.1 $78.3 $333.4 $86.1 $67.2 $83.7 $71.4 $308.4 $323.0
Other Operations And Maintenance 293.9 70.7 85.5 84.6 97.9 338.6 70.8 85.6 93.6 79.1 329.1 332.1
Energy Efficiency Programs 44.2 6.7 5.8 18.5 6.7 37.7 6.0 5.0 18.0 6.0 35.0 36.0
Depreciation 115.9 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.5 119.8 30.7 30.9 33.0 33.3 127.9 135.0
Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 24.0 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 28.9 7.2 5.3 5.8 5.4 23.7 24.8
Diversified Operations 4.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.6 4.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.8 4.8
Total Operating Expenses $837.4 $201.4 $200.7 $238.2 $222.2 $862.5 $202.0 $195.3 $235.3 $196.3 $828.9 $855.7
EBITD $335.7 $86.2 $69.1 $108.7 $46.1 $310.1 $94.7 $85.4 $146.6 $88.8 $415.5 $450.2
Operating Income $198.7 $50.1 $34.3 $71.4 $8.5 $164.2 $56.5 $47.0 $106.1 $48.0 $257.6 $274.2
Other Income 15.2 4.5 5.0 6.0 5.6 21.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 20.0 21.0
Earnings Of Uncons. Eq-Method Inv. 3.0 (1.3) (4.4) 2.1 4.5 0.8 (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0)(4.0)(3.0)
Interest On Long-Term Debt 80.5 20.8 19.5 19.5 19.5 79.3 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.3 84.0 85.0
Other Interest (5.4) (1.9) (1.9) (2.1) (2.0) (7.8)(2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1)(8.4)(8.0)
Income Before Income Taxes: $141.7 $34.4 $17.3 $62.0 $1.0 $114.7 $41.9 $32.2 $91.1 $32.8 $198.0 $215.2
Income Taxes: (0.7) 4.9 (3.7) (45.4) (8.0) (52.1) 9.4 7.2 20.5 7.4 44.5 53.8
Effective Tax Rate -0.5% 14.2% -21.1% -73.1% -803.7% -45.4%22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5%22.5%25.0%
Income From Continuing Operations $142.5 $29.5 $21.0 $107.4 $9.0 $166.9 $32.5 $24.9 $70.6 $25.4 $153.4 $161.4
Noncontrolling Interest 0.3 0.3 (0.1) (0.3) 0.0 (0.2)0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
Net Income Available For Common $142.8 $29.7 $20.9 $107.1 $9.0 $166.7 $32.6 $25.0 $70.6 $25.5 $153.7 $161.7
Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.3 49.4 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.6 49.8 49.9 50.0 50.1 50.0 50.5
Diluted EPS $2.95 $0.60 $0.42 $2.16 $0.18 $3.36 $0.65 $0.50 $1.41 $0.51 $3.08 $3.20
Ratio Analysis:
Gross Margin 65.8% 65.7% 69.5% 68.6% 66.1% 67.5% 66.7% 72.2% 75.5% 70.8% 71.6% 71.4%
Operating Margin 19.2% 19.9% 14.6% 23.1% 3.7% 16.0% 21.9% 19.4% 31.1% 19.6% 23.7% 24.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.7% 13.7% 7.4% 20.0% 0.4% 11.2% 16.2% 13.3% 26.7% 13.4% 18.2% 19.0%
Net Margin 13.8% 11.8% 8.9% 34.6% 3.9% 16.2% 12.6% 10.3% 20.7% 10.4% 14.1% 14.3%
Dividends Per Common Share $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $0.33 $0.33 $0.33 $0.33 $1.32 $1.50
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 40.6% 37.2% 42.4% 33.4% 35.7% 35.7% 36.0% 36.1% 47.0% 42.9% 42.9% 46.9%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 13.6%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
14
Integrys Energy Group, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues:
Utility Revenues $3,368.5 $1,168.7 $670.8 $596.2 $858.8 $3,294.5 $1,165.2 $691.5 $607.5 $861.4 $3,325.5 $3,416.4
Nonregulated Revenues 1,834.7 458.4 340.0 342.5 273.3 1,414.2 482.8 372.6 375.4 293.4 1,524.2 1,592.5
Total Operating Revenues $5,203.2 $1,627.1 $1,010.8 $938.7 $1,132.1 $4,708.7 $1,648.0 $1,064.1 $982.9 $1,154.7 $4,849.7 $5,009.0
Utility Cost of Sales 1,685.5 660.7 305.2 245.7 423.7 1,635.3 650.6 317.7 251.9 410.3 1,630.5 1,653.0
Nonregulated Cost of Sales 1,619.8 404.0 291.0 294.2 292.4 1,281.6 426.0 326.3 319.7 246.2 1,318.2 1,384.1
Gross Margin $1,897.9 $562.4 $414.6 $398.8 $416.0 $1,791.8 $571.4 $420.0 $411.3 $498.3 $1,901.0 $1,971.8
Operating & Maintenance 1,045.6 264.7 260.4 241.8 262.5 1,028.2 275.2 269.7 253.9 273.6 1,072.4 1,108.4
Impairments & Restructuring Costs 65.2 (0.1) 0.7 0.0 4.5 6.3
Depreciation & Amortization 265.8 62.3 62.2 62.4 63.2 250.1 64.6 64.5 64.4 62.4 255.9 269.1
Taxes Other than Income Taxes 93.2 26.8 23.8 23.8 24.0 98.4 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 97.9 100.3
Other Operating Expenses 1,469.8 353.7 347.1 328.0 354.2 1,383.0 364.3 358.7 342.8 360.5 1,426.2 1,477.9
EBITDA (Excluding Special Items) $808.3 $293.1 $152.1 $151.2 $187.2 $783.6 $292.2 $147.3 $154.7 $222.8 $817.0 $859.2
Operating Income $428.1 $208.7 $67.5 $70.8 $61.8 $408.8 $207.1 $61.3 $68.5 $137.8 $474.8 $493.9
Miscellaneous Income, Net 91.5 21.2 21.6 20.9 21.1 84.8 20.4 21.5 21.8 22.6 86.3 96.1
Interest Expense (147.9) (34.8) (32.2) (31.4) (30.4) (128.8) (30.5) (31.8) (32.0) (32.8) (127.1) (137.9)
Pretax Income $371.7 $195.1 $56.9 $60.3 $52.5 $364.8 $197.1 $51.0 $58.3 $127.6 $434.0 $452.1
Provision for Income Taxes 148.5 71.7 26.1 22.7 13.4 133.9 70.0 18.1 20.4 45.3 153.8 161.5
Effective Tax Rate 40.0% 36.8% 45.9% 37.6% 25.5% 36.7%35.5% 35.5% 35.0% 35.5%35.4% 35.7%
Net Income - Continuing Operations $223.2 $123.4 $30.8 $37.6 $39.1 $230.9 $127.1 $32.9 $37.9 $82.3 $280.2 $290.6
Preferred Dividend (3.1) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (0.8) (3.1) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (0.8) (3.1) (3.1)
Discontinued Operations 0.2 0.1 (0.9) 0.4 (0.4)0.0 0.0
Noncontrolling Interest in Subsidiaries 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income for Common $220.6 $122.7 $29.1 $36.9 $38.7 $227.4 $126.4 $32.1 $37.2 $81.5 $277.2 $287.6
Average Diluted Shares 78.0 78.6 79.1 79.2 79.5 79.1 79.8 80.1 80.4 80.7 80.3 81.0
Diluted EPS - GAAP $2.83 $1.56 $0.37 $0.47 $0.49 $2.87 $1.58 $0.40 $0.46 $1.01 $3.45 $3.55
Non-GAAP Adjustments to EPS:
Noncash Mark to Market Losses (Gains) at IES ($0.39) ($0.08) ($0.04) $0.56 $0.45
Nonrecurring tax events $0.14 $0.07 ($0.07) $0.00
Restructuring expenses $0.06 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Impairments $0.33 $0.04 $0.04
IES Strategy change $0.16
Discontinued Operations $0.01 ($0.01) $0.01
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $3.13 $1.57 $0.38 $0.43 $1.01 $3.38 $1.58 $0.40 $0.46 $1.01 $3.45 $3.55
Adjusted EPS by Segment:
Regulated Gas $1.16 $0.98 $0.01 ($0.25) $0.50 $1.24 $1.02 $0.03 ($0.24) $0.53 $1.34 $1.38
Regulated Electric 1.45 0.32 0.25 0.50 0.23 1.29 0.29 0.21 0.46 0.19 1.15 1.19
Transmission Investment 0.59 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.60 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.65 0.68
Energy Services 0.20 0.15 0.02 0.10 0.17 0.43 0.16 0.04 0.12 0.14 0.45 0.48
Holding Company & Other (0.29) (0.02) (0.05) (0.07) (0.04) (0.17) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.01) (0.13) (0.18)
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Equity (ttm) 8.4% 8.5% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.4%
Return on Assets (ttm) 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Return on Capital (ttm) 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
Gross Margin 36.5% 34.6% 41.0% 42.5% 36.7% 38.1% 34.7% 39.5% 41.8% 43.1% 39.2% 39.4%
EBITDA Margin 15.5% 18.0% 15.0% 16.1% 16.5% 16.6% 17.7% 13.8% 15.7% 19.3% 16.8% 17.2%
Operating Margin 8.2% 12.8% 6.7% 7.5% 5.5% 8.7% 12.6% 5.8% 7.0% 11.9% 9.8% 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1% 12.0% 5.6% 6.4% 4.6% 7.7% 12.0% 4.8% 5.9% 11.1% 8.9% 9.0%
Net Margin 4.2% 7.5% 2.9% 3.9% 3.4% 4.8% 7.7% 3.0% 3.8% 7.1% 5.7% 5.7%
Dividends Per Common Share $2.72 $0.68 $0.68 $0.68 $0.68 $2.72 $0.68 $0.68 $0.68 $0.68 $2.72 $2.72
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 86.8% 84.7% 87.2% 85.1% 80.4% 80.5% 80.1% 79.5% 78.7% 78.7% 78.8% 76.6%
Dividend Growth Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
15
MDU Resources Group, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Results are adjusted to exclude the impact of nonrecurring items and discontinued operations.
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010* 1Q'11* 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Total Operating Revenues $3,909.7 $901.8 $930.8 $1,152.2 $1,065.7 $4,050.5 $839.4 $877.8 $1,092.0 $1,044.7 $3,853.9 $3,995.0
Operating Expenses:
Fuel And Purchased Power $63.1 $17.0 $14.5 $17.4 $15.7 $64.5 $16.4 $12.9 $15.5 $16.4 $61.2 $63.8
Purchased Natural Gas Sold 567.8 244.7 101.5 50.1 175.9 572.2 207.1 81.0 32.5 162.8 483.3 504.0
Operation And Maintenance - Regulated 291.5 68.0 70.0 69.5 68.4 275.9 68.8 71.1 70.7 70.3 280.9 286.9
Operation And Maintenance - Nonregulated 2,084.4 359.8 536.6 767.5 551.3 2,215.3 337.6 506.8 702.7 526.8 2,074.0 2,114.9
Depreciation, Depletion And Amortization 328.8 84.7 83.3 88.9 86.5 343.4 86.1 85.6 88.3 85.9 345.9 347.0
Taxes, Other Than Income Taxes 163.4 49.7 42.5 39.4 41.3 172.9 48.0 41.9 41.1 42.2 173.2 176.1
Total Operating Expenses $3,499.0 $823.7 $848.5 $1,032.8 $939.2 $3,644.1 $764.1 $799.3 $950.7 $904.4 $3,418.6 $3,492.8
EBITD $766.2 $162.7 $165.6 $208.3 $213.1 $749.8 $161.4 $164.1 $229.5 $226.2 $781.2 $849.2
Operating Income $437.3 $78.1 $82.3 $119.4 $126.5 $406.4 $75.2 $78.5 $141.2 $140.3 $435.3 $502.2
Other Income-Net 16.1 2.4 2.9 2.1 3.9 11.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.0 8.8
Interest Expense-Net 83.0 22.0 20.0 19.6 19.7 81.4 21.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 87.0 90.2
Income Before Income Taxes $370.5 $58.4 $65.1 $101.9 $110.7 $336.2 $56.2 $58.5 $121.2 $120.3 $356.3 $420.8
Income Taxes 123.7 15.9 19.9 37.8 36.6 110.3 19.7 19.3 43.3 42.1 124.4 149.9
Effective Tax Rate 33.4% 27.2% 30.5% 37.1% 33.1% 32.8%35.0% 33.0% 35.7% 35.0%34.9% 35.6%
Net Income from Continuing Operations $246.8 $42.5 $45.2 $64.1 $74.0 $226.0 $36.6 $39.2 $77.9 $78.2 $231.9 $270.9
Dividends On Preferred Stocks 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7
Continuing Earnings for Common $246.1 $42.4 $45.1 $63.9 $73.9 $225.3 $36.4 $39.0 $77.8 $78.0 $231.2 $270.2
Average Diluted Shares 188.2 188.8 189.0 189.5 190.0 189.3 190.5 191.0 191.5 192.0 191.3 193.3
Diluted EPS - GAAP $1.27 $0.23 $0.24 $0.34 $0.32 $1.12
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $1.30 $0.22 $0.24 $0.34 $0.39 $1.19 $0.19 $0.20 $0.41 $0.41 $1.21 $1.40
Adjusted EPS By Segment:
Electric $0.15 $0.05 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.15 $0.05 $0.03 $0.05 $0.04 $0.16 $0.17
Natural Gas Distribution 0.20 0.15 0.01 (0.06) 0.11 0.20 0.14 0.01 (0.05) 0.11 0.20 0.21
Construction Services 0.10 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.12 0.14
Pipeline And Energy Services 0.21 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.12 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.12
Construction Materials And Contracting 0.16 (0.11) 0.03 0.17 0.05 0.14 (0.09) 0.03 0.21 0.05 0.20 0.24
Oil And Natural Gas Production 0.45 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.42 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.47 0.58
Other & Eliminations 0.04 (0.00) 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 (0.03) (0.02) 0.01 (0.01) (0.05) (0.06)
Total EPS - Adjusted $1.30 $0.22 $0.24 $0.34 $0.39 $1.19 $0.19 $0.20 $0.41 $0.41 $1.21 $1.40
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Average Equity (ttm) 9.4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.7% 8.2% 1.3% 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 8.3% 9.6%
Return on Average Assets (ttm) 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 3.6% 4.0%
EBITDA Margin 19.6% 18.0% 17.8% 18.1% 20.0% 18.5% 19.2% 18.7% 21.0% 21.7% 20.3% 21.3%
Operating Margin 11.2% 8.7% 8.8% 10.4% 11.9% 10.0% 9.0% 8.9% 12.9% 13.4% 11.3% 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5% 6.5% 7.0% 8.8% 10.4% 8.3% 6.7% 6.7% 11.1% 11.5% 9.2% 10.5%
Net Margin 6.3% 4.7% 4.8% 5.5% 6.9% 5.6% 4.3% 4.4% 7.1% 7.5% 6.0% 6.8%
Dividends Per Common Share $0.635 $0.163 $0.163 $0.163 $0.168 $0.655 $0.168 $0.168 $0.168 $0.173 $0.675 $0.695
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 48.8% 48.8% 50.0% 53.5% 55.1% 55.1% 57.1% 59.3% 56.3% 55.9% 55.8% 49.7%
Dividend Growth Rate 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
16
Northwest Natural Gas Co. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
($ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31)2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues:
Gross Utility Revenues $790.6 $317.7 $161.3 $86.6 $264.0 $829.6 $314.8 $154.1 $90.6 $269.4 $828.9 $851.3
Less: Utility Cost of Sales 424.5 180.6 90.1 43.1 144.7 458.6 176.4 84.5 44.3 145.1 450.3 456.9
Less: Utility Revenue Taxes 20.0 8.0 3.8 2.4 6.5 20.7 7.8 3.9 2.6 7.0 21.4 22.3
Net Utility Revenues $346.1 $129.1 $67.4 $41.1 $112.7 $350.3 $130.6 $65.7 $43.7 $117.2 $357.2 $372.1
Gas Storage Operating Revenues 21.5 5.3 7.3 6.7 7.2 26.6 7.0 7.3 6.8 7.0 28.1 28.5
Total Net Revenues $367.6 $134.5 $74.6 $47.8 $119.9 $376.8 $137.6 $73.0 $50.5 $124.2 $385.3 $400.6
Operations & Maintenance 121.0 31.2 30.4 28.4 35.4 125.3 31.8 30.9 28.7 37.0 128.3 131.8
General Taxes 23.9 8.2 6.7 7.5 6.9 29.3 8.3 7.1 7.5 7.3 30.2 31.7
Depreciation & Amortization 65.1 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.7 70.0 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.7 72.2 75.1
Other Operating Expenses $210.0 $56.6 $54.6 $53.3 $60.0 $224.6 $57.9 $55.8 $54.0 $63.0 $230.8 $238.6
EBITD $222.7 $95.1 $37.6 $11.9 $77.6 $222.2 $97.5 $35.0 $14.3 $80.0 $226.8 $237.1
Operating Income $157.6 $77.8 $20.1 ($5.6) $59.9 $152.2 $79.7 $17.2 ($3.5) $61.2 $154.5 $162.0
Net Other Income & Expense 7.1 1.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 4.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.8 4.8
Net Interest Charges 42.6 10.4 10.3 10.2 11.1 42.1 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 45.8 44.7
Pretax Income $122.1 $68.6 $10.9 ($14.0) $49.2 $114.6 $69.5 $6.9 ($13.8) $51.0 $113.5 $122.1
Income Tax Expense 49.5 27.9 4.3 (5.7) 19.9 43.4 28.1 2.7 (5.7) 20.9 46.1 49.6
Effective Tax Rate 40.5% 40.6% 39.6% 40.7% 40.5% 37.8%40.5% 39.5% 41.0% 41.0%40.6% 40.6%
Net Income $72.7 $40.7 $6.6 ($8.3) $29.2 $68.3 $41.3 $4.2 ($8.1) $30.1 $67.4 $72.5
Average Shares Outstanding - Diluted 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9
Diluted EPS - GAAP $2.73 $1.53 $0.08 ($0.31)$1.09 $2.39 $1.54 $0.16 ($0.30) $1.12 $2.52 $2.70
Non-GAAP Adjustments to EPS:
Gain from favorable property tax ruling $0.14
Charge for repeal of SB 408 ($0.17) ($0.17)
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $2.59 $1.53 $0.25 ($0.31) $1.09 $2.56 $1.54 $0.16 ($0.30) $1.12 $2.52 $2.70
EPS by Segment:
Core Utility $2.35 $1.50 $0.21 ($0.36) $1.08 $2.43 $1.49 $0.10 ($0.35) $1.09 $2.32 $2.50
Gas Storage 0.23 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.15 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.19 0.20
Other 0.01 (0.00) (0.01) 0.00 (0.02) (0.03)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Equity (ttm) 10.6% 10.0% 9.9% 9.8% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3% 9.3% 9.7%
Return on Assets (ttm) 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6%
Return on Capital (ttm) 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4%
Gross Margin 45.3% 41.6% 44.3% 51.2% 44.2% 44.0% 42.7% 45.2% 51.8% 45.0% 45.0% 45.5%
EBITDA Margin 27.4% 29.4% 22.3% 12.7% 28.6% 26.0% 30.3% 21.7% 14.7% 28.9% 26.5% 27.0%
Operating Margin 19.4% 24.1% 11.9% -5.9% 22.1% 17.8% 24.8% 10.6% -3.6% 22.2% 18.0% 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.0% 21.2% 6.5% -15.0% 18.1% 13.4% 21.6% 4.3% -14.2% 18.4% 13.2% 13.9%
Net Margin 8.9% 12.6% 3.9% -8.9% 10.8% 8.0% 12.8% 2.6% -8.4% 10.9% 7.9% 8.2%
Dividends Per Share $1.680 $0.435 $0.435 $0.435 $0.445 $1.750 $0.445 $0.445 $0.445 $0.458 $1.793 $1.856
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 64.9% 64.9% 65.8% 67.4% 68.4% 68.4% 68.4% 71.4% 71.6% 71.2% 71.2% 68.7%
Dividend Growth Rate 5.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.5%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
17
Portland General Electric Co. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues $1,783 $484 $411 $439 $479 $1,813 $485 $429 $451 $493 $1,859 $1,928
Purchased Power And Fuel Costs 829 194 169 182 215 760 193 184 193 227 797 830
Gross Margin $954 $290 $242 $257 $264 $1,053 $292 $245 $258 $266 $1,062 $1,098
Operating Expenses:
Production And Distribution $174 $42 $55 $50 $54 $201 $49 $52 $52 $54 $207 $215
Administrative And Other 186 52 51 55 60 218 52 52 53 54 211 214
Depreciation And Amortization 238 56 55 59 57 227 59 59 60 60 238 242
Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 89 25 24 25 24 98 25 22 23 26 97 100
Total Operating Expenses $687 $175 $185 $189 $195 $744 $185 $185 $189 $194 $753 $771
EBITD $505 $171 $112 $127 $126 $536 $166 $119 $129 $133 $548 $568
Income From Operations $267 $115 $57 $68 $69 $309 $107 $60 $69 $73 $310 $326
Other Income (Expenses)17 3 2 (3) 4 6 2 2 2 2 8 9
Interest Expense 110 27 28 27 28 110 28 29 29 29 115 120
Income (Loss) Before Income Tax $174 $91 $31 $38 $45 $205 $81 $33 $42 $46 $203 $215
Income Tax Expense (Benefit)$53 $22 $9 $11 $16 $58 $23 $9 $12 $13 $57 $60
Effective Tax Rate 30.5% 24.2% 29.0% 28.9% 35.6% 28.3%28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0%28.0%28.0%
Net Income $121 $69 $22 $27 $29 $147 $58 $24 $31 $33 $146 $155
Add: net losses attributable to noncontrollin int. 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Income attributable to PGE $125 $69 $22 $27 $29 $147 $58 $24 $31 $33 $146 $155
Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 75.3 75.3 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.6
Earnings Per Share - Diluted $1.66 $0.92 $0.29 $0.36 $0.38 $1.95 $0.77 $0.32 $0.41 $0.44 $1.93 $2.05
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Average Equity (ttm)8.0% 10.5% 10.3% 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 9.0%
Return on Average Assets (ttm)2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 3.5% 2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Gross Margin 53.5% 59.9% 58.9% 58.5% 55.1% 58.1% 60.2% 57.2% 57.2% 54.0% 57.1% 56.9%
EBITDA Margin 28.3% 35.3% 27.3% 28.9% 26.3% 29.6% 34.2% 27.8% 28.7% 26.9% 29.4% 29.5%
Operating Margin 15.0% 23.8% 13.9% 15.5% 14.4% 17.0% 22.1% 14.0% 15.4% 14.7% 16.6% 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8% 18.8% 7.5% 8.7% 9.4% 11.3% 16.7% 7.7% 9.4% 9.3% 10.9% 11.2%
Net Margin 6.8% 14.3% 5.4% 6.2% 6.1% 8.1% 12.0% 5.6% 6.8% 6.7% 7.8% 8.0%
Dividends Declared Per Share $1.035 $0.260 $0.265 $0.265 $0.265 $1.055 $0.270 $0.270 $0.270 $0.270 $1.080 $1.100
Dividend Payout Ratio 62.3% 54.1% 55.9% 53.6%
Dividend Growth Rate 2.5% 1.9% 2.4% 1.9%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
18
Wisconsin Energy Corp. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and company reports
$ in millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010R 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12e 2Q'12e 3Q'12e 4Q'12e 2012e 2013e
Operating Revenues $4,202.5 $1,328.7 $991.7 $1,052.8 $1,113.2 $4,486.4 $1,258.9 $1,003.3 $1,064.3 $1,140.3 $4,466.9 $4,883.7
Fuel and Purchased Power 1,099.9 267.6 286.0 350.9 265.2 1,169.7 259.0 289.9 356.0 262.9 1,167.7 1,201.7
Cost of Gas Sold 751.5 342.4 121.8 69.2 195.3 728.7 307.5 118.7 68.5 202.4 697.1 723.7
Gross Margin $2,351.1 $718.7 $583.9 $632.7 $652.7 $2,588.0 $692.5 $594.7 $639.9 $675.0 $2,602.1 $2,958.4
Other Operation & Maintenance 1,327.5 313.5 298.9 296.9 347.5 1,256.8 278.1 270.1 273.0 295.1 1,116.2 1,376.1
Depreciation & Amortization 305.6 81.3 82.3 82.6 84.0 330.2 87.9 93.4 98.7 100.9 380.9 404.9
Property and Revenue Taxes 106.0 28.3 28.3 28.9 28.2 113.7 32.5 34.5 36.3 37.3 140.7 160.0
Amortization of Gain (198.4)0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-Fuel Operating Expenses $1,540.7 $423.1 $409.5 $408.4 $459.7 $1,700.7 $398.5 $397.9 $408.0 $433.4 $1,637.8 $1,941.0
EBITD $1,230.2 $407.8 $300.5 $335.9 $318.1 $1,362.3 $409.1 $311.6 $347.8 $359.6 $1,428.0 $1,494.0
Operating Income $810.4 $295.6 $174.4 $224.3 $193.0 $887.3 $294.0 $196.8 $231.9 $241.6 $964.3 $1,017.4
Equity in Earnings of Transmission Affiliate 60.1 15.5 15.2 15.7 16.1 62.5 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.7 62.5 66.2
Other Income, Net 40.2 12.5 14.4 16.2 19.6 62.7 11.9 5.8 1.3 1.3 20.3 5.6
Interest Expense, Net 206.4 63.4 57.4 56.8 58.2 235.8 59.5 59.5 59.6 62.1 240.7 250.0
Pretax Income $704.3 $260.2 $146.6 $199.4 $170.5 $776.7 $261.6 $158.7 $189.5 $196.5 $806.4 $839.2
Income Taxes 249.9 89.3 48.6 69.6 56.4 263.9 90.8 54.6 69.1 68.6 283.2 294.3
Effective Tax Rate 35.5% 34.3% 33.2% 34.9% 33.1% 34.0% 34.7% 34.4% 36.4% 34.9% 35.1% 35.1%
Income from Continuing Operations $454.4 $170.9 $98.0 $129.8 $114.1 $512.8 $170.8 $104.1 $120.5 $127.9 $523.3 $544.9
Discontinued Operations 2.1 11.5 1.9 13.4 0.0 0.0
Net Income $456.5 $170.9 $109.5 $129.8 $116.0 $526.2 $170.8 $104.1 $120.5 $127.9 $523.3 $544.9
Average Diluted Shares 236.8 236.6 236.6 234.9 233.6 235.4 233.1 232.4 231.7 231.0 232.1 229.3
Diluted EPS - As Reported $3.86 $0.72 $0.46 $0.55 $0.50 $2.24
Diluted EPS - Adjusted $1.92 $0.72 $0.41 $0.55 $0.49 $2.18 $0.73 $0.45 $0.52 $0.55 $2.25 $2.38
Key Ratios:
Return on Equity (ttm) 12.4% 13.3% 13.6% 13.9% 13.5% 13.5% 13.3% 13.1% 12.7% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Return on Assets (ttm) 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Return on Capital (ttm) 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%
Gross Margin 55.9% 54.1% 58.9% 60.1% 58.6% 57.7% 55.0% 59.3% 60.1% 59.2% 58.3% 60.6%
EBITDA Margin 29.3% 30.7% 30.3% 31.9% 28.6% 30.4% 32.5% 31.1% 32.7% 31.5% 32.0% 30.6%
Operating Margin 19.3% 22.2% 17.6% 21.3% 17.3% 19.8% 23.4% 19.6% 21.8% 21.2% 21.6% 20.8%
Pretax Margin 16.8% 19.6% 14.8% 18.9% 15.3% 17.3% 20.8% 15.8% 17.8% 17.2% 18.1% 17.2%
Net Margin 10.9% 12.9% 11.0% 12.3% 10.4% 11.7% 13.6% 10.4% 11.3% 11.2% 11.7% 11.2%
Dividends Per Common Share $0.80 $0.260 $0.260 $0.260 $0.260 $1.04 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $1.20 $1.36
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 41.7% 39.7% 43.9% 45.0% 47.8% 47.7% 47.3% 50.6% 53.0% 53.2% 53.2% 57.1%
Dividend Growth Rate 18.5% 30.0% 15.4% 13.0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
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Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2012. All rights reserved.
19
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