Keybank-may-3-2012.pdf

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May 3, 2012
ENERGY: Electric Utilities
Quick Alert
KeyBanc
Capital￿Markets

IDACORP, Inc. (BUY)
IDA - Quick Alert: 1Q12 Results Below Views on O&M, Guidance Maintained
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
Paul T. Ridzon: [phone] Ð [e-mail]
Timothy Yee: [phone] Ð [e-mail]
KEY INVESTMENT POINTS
May 2, 2012 Close: $40.23
1Q12 KBCM EPS Estimate: $0.64 (Consensus: $0.60)
2012 KBCM EPS Estimate: $3.10 (Consensus: $3.08)
1Q12 Actual Results (vs. 1Q11):
●Operating EPS of $0.50 vs. $0.60; GAAP EPS of $0.50 vs. $0.60.
●Results were somewhat below our estimate of $0.64 and consensus of $0.60 per share. Relative to our estimate, O&M expense
timing and weather drove lower results.
Guidance: The Company maintained 2012 guidance of $3.00-$3.15 per share (assumes estimated use of ADITCs of less than $5
million in 2012, which is unchanged from previous language).
Highlights:
●Primary drivers of the quarterly decline include: rate changes (+$0.07); volumes (-$0.04); higher pension and payroll (-$0.07);
services and software (-$0.03); depreciation and other taxes (-$0.03); improved Bridger Coal results (+$0.04); higher AFUDC (+
$0.04); and lower utilization of ADITCs (-$0.06).
●We note that IDA is permitted under its settlement to earn a floor ROE of 9.5%, using the amortization of deferred tax credits if
necessary. IDA maintained its forecast of utilizing less than $5 million of these tax credits, despite the lower 1Q results. Rate design
and usage patterns will drive rate increases to have a more meaningful positive impact in the 2Q and 3Q.
●IDA expects 2012 hydro conditions to allow the generation of 7.5 million-9.5 million, consistent with its prior view.
●IDA forecasts 2012 operation and maintenance expenses to be $325 million-$335 million, also unchanged.
●Also unchanged is the 2012 capex forecast at $230 million-$240 million vs. the 2011 level of $338 million, assuming completion
of the Langley Gulch natural gas plant (under construction to be commercially available as of July 1, 2012) and expenditures for
siting and permitting work for planned transmission projects.
Initial Take: We expect a potential negative response to the 1Q12 earnings, tempered by maintaining guidance, forecast for minimal
ITC amortization and discussion of timing issues that will benefit the 2Q and 3Q.
4:30PM EDT Conference Call #: [phone]; ID#: 44845423.
We will be focused on:
●Economic outlook
●2012 earnings drivers
●Transmission project updates, as these are incremental growth drivers
●Regulatory updates
FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CERTIFICATIONS, PLEASE REFER TO PAGES 2 - 3 OF THIS NOTE.
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KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Disclosures and Certifications
IDACORP, Inc. - IDA
IDACORP, Inc. is an investment banking client of ours.
We have received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. within the next
three months.
During the past 12 months, IDACORP, Inc. has been a client of the firm or its affiliates for non-securities related services.
We have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for IDACORP, Inc. within the past 12 months.
Reg A/C Certification
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this research report certifies that:(1) all the views expressed in
this research report accurately reflect the research analyst©s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers; and (2) no part of the research analyst©s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.
Three-Year Rating and Price Target History
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector
KeyBanc Capital Markets
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]222 43.53 46 20.72
HOLD [HOLD]277 54.31 52 18.77
SELL [UND]11 2.16 4 36.36

ENERGY
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]38 48.10 17 44.74
HOLD [HOLD]41 51.90 19 46.34
SELL [UND]0 0.00 0 0.00

Quick AlertMay 3, 2012
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Rating System
BUY - The security is expected to outperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should consider adding the
security to their holdings opportunistically, subject to their overall diversification requirements.
HOLD - The security is expected to perform in line with general market indices over the next six to 12 months; no buy or sell
action is recommended at this time.
UNDERWEIGHT - The security is expected to underperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should
reduce their holdings opportunistically.
The information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be
complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. The opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author as of the
date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Our company policy prohibits research analysts and members of their
families from owning securities of any company followed by that analyst, unless otherwise disclosed. Our officers,
directors, shareholders and other employees, and members of their families may have positions in these securities and
may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this report.
In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the opinions expressed herein. One or more of our
employees, other than the research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report, may be a member of the Board
of Directors of any company referred to in this report. The research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report is
compensated based on various factors, including the analyst©s productivity, the quality of the analyst©s research and stock
recommendations, ratings from investor clients, competitive factors and overall Firm revenues, which include revenues
derived from, among other business activities, the Firm©s performance of investment banking services. In accordance with
industry practices, our analysts are prohibited from soliciting investment banking business for our Firm.
Investors should assume that we are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the
company described in this report.
Quick AlertMay 3, 2012