Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutKeyBanc-Oct-4-2012.pdf1 October 4, 2012 ENERGY: Electric Utilities Quick Alert KeyBanc Capital￿Markets IDACORP, Inc. (BUY) IDA - Quick Alert: BPA Selects IDA©s Boardman to Hemingway Line KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC Paul T. Ridzon: (216) 689-0270 Ð pridzon@key.com Timothy Yee: (216) 689-0385 Ð tyee@key.com KEY INVESTMENT POINTS Related to our quick alert yesterday regarding the fact that NorthWestern Corporation©s (NWE-NYSE) MSTI line ranked relatively low on the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) alternatives to address the expiration of a power supply contract to serve southeastern Idaho, we have learned that IDACORP, Inc.©s (IDA-NYSE) Boardman to Hemingway transmission proposal was ranked #1 and #2 (in different configurations) of the six proposals. We view this as an incremental positive for IDA and the project. We do note that IDA recently pushed back the expected in service date from 2016 to "no earlier than 2018". In BPA©s letter discussing its decision regarding its preferred alternatives to address the contract expiration (available at http:// transmission.bpa.gov/Customer_Forums/se_idaho/default.cfm?page=SILS), BPA indicated the Boardman to Hemingway line will be a top priority item in 2013. BPA indicates that since the line is not expected to be available by 2016, when the contracts expire, it would seek short-term solutions. What impact BPA©s high ranking has on potentially altering project timing is not known at this time. The Boardman to Hemingway line is a 300-mile 500kV line running from north central Oregon to southeast Idaho. IDA©s 2011 integrated resource plan (IRP) targeted a 2016 in-service date. On its 2Q12 earnings call, IDA indicated permitting issues, including issues with the endangered sage grouse would delay the timing. We believe if the project can not be advanced, IDA©s 2013 IRP (summer 2013) may indicate incremental generation capacity is needed. IDA recently completed its $400 million 300MW Langley Gulch project, which was designed to accommodate an incremental plant on-site. FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CERTIFICATIONS, PLEASE REFER TO PAGES 2 - 3 OF THIS NOTE. 2 KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Disclosures and Certifications IDACORP, Inc. - IDA IDACORP, Inc. is an investment banking client of ours. We have received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. within the next three months. During the past 12 months, IDACORP, Inc. has been a client of the firm or its affiliates for non-securities related services. We have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for IDACORP, Inc. within the past 12 months. Reg A/C Certification The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this research report certifies that:(1) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst©s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of the research analyst©s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report. Three-Year Rating and Price Target History Rating Disclosures Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector KeyBanc Capital Markets IB Serv/Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY [BUY]212 42.57 48 22.64 HOLD [HOLD]275 55.22 47 17.09 SELL [UND]11 2.21 3 27.27 ENERGY IB Serv/Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY [BUY]32 51.61 16 50.00 HOLD [HOLD]30 48.39 18 60.00 SELL [UND]0 0.00 0 0.00 Quick AlertOctober 4, 2012 3 Rating System BUY - The security is expected to outperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should consider adding the security to their holdings opportunistically, subject to their overall diversification requirements. HOLD - The security is expected to perform in line with general market indices over the next six to 12 months; no buy or sell action is recommended at this time. UNDERWEIGHT - The security is expected to underperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should reduce their holdings opportunistically. The information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. The opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Our company policy prohibits research analysts and members of their families from owning securities of any company followed by that analyst, unless otherwise disclosed. Our officers, directors, shareholders and other employees, and members of their families may have positions in these securities and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this report. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the opinions expressed herein. One or more of our employees, other than the research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report, may be a member of the Board of Directors of any company referred to in this report. The research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report is compensated based on various factors, including the analyst©s productivity, the quality of the analyst©s research and stock recommendations, ratings from investor clients, competitive factors and overall Firm revenues, which include revenues derived from, among other business activities, the Firm©s performance of investment banking services. In accordance with industry practices, our analysts are prohibited from soliciting investment banking business for our Firm. Investors should assume that we are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the company described in this report. Quick AlertOctober 4, 2012