KeyBanc-Nov-1-2012.pdf

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November 1, 2012
ENERGY: Electric Utilities
Quick Alert
KeyBanc
Capital￿Markets

IDACORP, Inc. (BUY)
IDA ± Quick Alert: 3Q12 Strong Quarter; Guidance Raised
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
Paul T. Ridzon: [phone] Ð [e-mail]
Timothy Yee: [phone] Ð [e-mail]
KEY INVESTMENT POINTS
IDA ± Quick Alert: 3Q12
October 31, 2012 Close: $44.72
3Q12 KBCM EPS Estimate: $1.60 (Consensus: $1.55)
2012 KBCM EPS Estimate: $3.30 (Consensus: $3.27)
2013 KBCM EPS Estimate: $3.20 (Consensus: $3.23)
3Q12 Actual Results (vs. 3Q11):
●Operating EPS $1.84 vs. $2.16; GAAP EPS $1.84 vs. $2.16
●Results were ahead of our estimate of $1.60 and consensus of $1.55 per share.
●Relative to our estimate, the roll-off of revenue sharing related to over-earning drove results higher.
Guidance: Raised 2012 guidance of $3.20-$3.35 per share to $3.30 to $3.40.
Highlights:
●Primary drivers of the quarterly decline include: rate changes (+$0.40); volumes (+$0.04); higher pension (-$0.08); higher
depreciation and taxes (-$0.03); lower revenue sharing (+$0.15); lower AFUDC (-$0.05); and the roll-off of a tax settlement related
to UniCap (-$1.10).
●We note that IDA is permitted under its settlement to earn a floor ROE of 9.5%, using the amortization of deferred tax credits if
necessary. IDA has previously indicated that due to strong year-to-date results, it no longer expects to utilize any credits in 2012.
●IDA expects 2012 hydro conditions to allow the generation of 7.8 million-8.2 million MWh, prior view was 7.5 million-8.5 million MWh.
●IDA forecasts 2012 operation and maintenance expenses to be $335 million-$345 million vs prior $325 million-$335 million view.
●2012 Capex forecast of $230 million-$235 million unchanged vs. 2011 level of $338 million.
Initial Take: We expect a positive response to the strong earnings report and ability to raise guidance for two consecutive quarters.
4:30PM ET Conference Call #: [phone] ID#: 87479675
We will be focused on:
●Economy and sales trends
●Changes in earnings drivers
●Transmission project updates, or potential for new generation investment
●Regulatory updates
FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CERTIFICATIONS, PLEASE REFER TO PAGES 2 - 3 OF THIS NOTE.
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KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Disclosures and Certifications
IDACORP, Inc. - IDA
IDACORP, Inc. is an investment banking client of ours.
We have received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. within the next
three months.
During the past 12 months, IDACORP, Inc. has been a client of the firm or its affiliates for non-securities related services.
We have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for IDACORP, Inc. within the past 12 months.
Reg A/C Certification
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this research report certifies that:(1) all the views expressed in
this research report accurately reflect the research analyst©s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers; and (2) no part of the research analyst©s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.
Three-Year Rating and Price Target History
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector
KeyBanc Capital Markets
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]211 42.63 48 22.75
HOLD [HOLD]274 55.35 48 17.52
SELL [UND]10 2.02 3 30.00

ENERGY
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]31 50.82 15 48.39
HOLD [HOLD]30 49.18 19 63.33
SELL [UND]0 0.00 0 0.00

Quick AlertNovember 1, 2012
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Rating System
BUY - The security is expected to outperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should consider adding the
security to their holdings opportunistically, subject to their overall diversification requirements.
HOLD - The security is expected to perform in line with general market indices over the next six to 12 months; no buy or sell
action is recommended at this time.
UNDERWEIGHT - The security is expected to underperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should
reduce their holdings opportunistically.
The information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be
complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. The opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author as of the
date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Our company policy prohibits research analysts and members of their
families from owning securities of any company followed by that analyst, unless otherwise disclosed. Our officers,
directors, shareholders and other employees, and members of their families may have positions in these securities and
may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this report.
In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the opinions expressed herein. One or more of our
employees, other than the research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report, may be a member of the Board
of Directors of any company referred to in this report. The research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report is
compensated based on various factors, including the analyst©s productivity, the quality of the analyst©s research and stock
recommendations, ratings from investor clients, competitive factors and overall Firm revenues, which include revenues
derived from, among other business activities, the Firm©s performance of investment banking services. In accordance with
industry practices, our analysts are prohibited from soliciting investment banking business for our Firm.
Investors should assume that we are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the
company described in this report.
Quick AlertNovember 1, 2012