KeyBanc-Feb-21-2013.pdf

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February 21, 2013
ENERGY: Electric Utilities
Quick Alert
KeyBanc
Capital￿Markets

IDACORP, Inc. (BUY)
IDA ± Quick Alert: 4Q12 Results Beat Views, Guidance Constructive
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
Paul T. Ridzon: [phone] Ð [e-mail]
Timothy Yee: [phone] Ð [e-mail]
KEY INVESTMENT POINTS
February 20, 2013 Close Price: $46.86
4Q12 KBCM EPS Estimate: $0.30 (Consensus: $0.30)
2012 KBCM EPS Estimate: $3.35 (Consensus: $3.35)
2013 KBCM EPS Estimate: $3.25 (Consensus: $3.26)
4Q12 and FY12 Actual Results (vs. 4Q11 and FY11):
●4Q12 operating EPS $0.33 vs. $0.18; 4Q12 GAAP EPS $0.33 vs. $0.18
●FY12 operating EPS $3.37 vs. $3.36; FY12 GAAP EPS $3.37 vs. $3.36
●4Q results were ahead of our estimate and consensus of $0.30 per share. Relative to our estimate, it appears cost control drove
earnings.
Guidance: Initiated 2013 guidance of $3.20-$3.35 per share. Guidance anticipates the amortization of less than $5 million of
accumulated deferred income tax credits.
Year-Over-Year Highlights:
●Primary drivers of the quarterly decline include: higher operating income due to rate action, favorable weather including a dry
spring that drove irrigation load, and a reduction in revenue sharing. These were partly offset by higher expenses around payroll,
depreciation and pension. The higher operating income was essentially offset by the drop-off of meaningful tax items in 2011 that
were related to prior-year tax periods. The net result was flattish results for the year.
●We note that IDA is permitted under its settlement to earn a floor ROE of 9.5%, using the amortization of deferred tax credits if
necessary. IDA has indicated it expects to use less than $5 million of these in 2013, which we believe signals earnings quality, which
has been an investor concern.
●IDA expects 2013 hydro conditions to allow the generation of 6.0 million-8.0 million MWh in 2013 vs. 8.0 million MWh.
●IDA forecasts 2013 operation and maintenance expenses to be $340 million-$350 million vs. $349 million.
●2013 Capex forecast of $245 million-$255 million vs. $228 million.
Initial Take: We expect a positive response to the solid quarter and upbeat guidance that does not lean heavily on tax credits.
4:30PM ET Conference Call #: [phone] ID#: 32005910
We will be focused on:
●2013 guidance drivers
●Economy and sales trends
●Transmission project updates, or potential for new generation investment
●Regulatory updates
FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CERTIFICATIONS, PLEASE REFER TO PAGES 2 - 3 OF THIS NOTE.
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KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Disclosures and Certifications
IDACORP, Inc. - IDA
IDACORP, Inc. is an investment banking client of ours.
We have received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. within the next
three months.
During the past 12 months, IDACORP, Inc. has been a client of the firm or its affiliates for non-securities related services.
We have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for IDACORP, Inc. within the past 12 months.
Reg A/C Certification
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this research report certifies that:(1) all the views expressed in
this research report accurately reflect the research analyst©s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers; and (2) no part of the research analyst©s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.
Three-Year Rating and Price Target History
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector
KeyBanc Capital Markets
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]224 44.27 47 20.98
HOLD [HOLD]271 53.56 60 22.14
SELL [UND]11 2.17 2 18.18

ENERGY
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]27 42.86 15 55.56
HOLD [HOLD]36 57.14 18 50.00
SELL [UND]0 0.00 0 0.00

Quick AlertFebruary 21, 2013
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Rating System
BUY - The security is expected to outperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should consider adding the
security to their holdings opportunistically, subject to their overall diversification requirements.
HOLD - The security is expected to perform in line with general market indices over the next six to 12 months; no buy or sell
action is recommended at this time.
UNDERWEIGHT - The security is expected to underperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should
reduce their holdings opportunistically.
The information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be
complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. The opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author as of the
date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Our company policy prohibits research analysts and members of their
families from owning securities of any company followed by that analyst, unless otherwise disclosed. Our officers,
directors, shareholders and other employees, and members of their families may have positions in these securities and
may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this report.
In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the opinions expressed herein. One or more of our
employees, other than the research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report, may be a member of the Board
of Directors of any company referred to in this report. The research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report is
compensated based on various factors, including the analyst©s productivity, the quality of the analyst©s research and stock
recommendations, ratings from investor clients, competitive factors and overall Firm revenues, which include revenues
derived from, among other business activities, the Firm©s performance of investment banking services. In accordance with
industry practices, our analysts are prohibited from soliciting investment banking business for our Firm.
Investors should assume that we are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the
company described in this report.
Quick AlertFebruary 21, 2013