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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE121311.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) ADITC Extension Application Settlement Stipulation – Raising Estimates and Target and Raising to BUY from NEUTRAL Highlights • We are raising our rating to BUY from NEUTRAL on IDA shares. Our revised price target of $45 per share (previously $43 p/s) implies a 2012/2013 P/E of 14.5x/13.9x our revised EPS estimates of $3.10/$3.23 (previously $3.02/$3.10). Our 2011 EPS estimate is now $3.35 (previously $3.40) and reflects the expected 4Q11 charge of $15m (previously $10m) representing the additional portion of estimated customer sharing per the ADITC extension application settlement announced last night (pending IPUC approval). • On December 12, 2011, Idaho Power, IPUC Staff and a large industrial customer reached a settlement stipulation. Specifically, Idaho Power may use up to $45m in aggregate of deferred investment tax credits (ADITC) over a three year-period (2012-2014) to reach a minimum 9.5% return-on-year-end equity. No more than $25m can be used in any one year. If Idaho Power return on year-end equity for 2012-2014 exceeds 10.0% but less than 10.5% then equal sharing (50/50) between Idaho Power and customers would be triggered. If Idaho Power return on year- end equity for 2012-2014 exceeds 10.5% then 75% customer sharing and 25% Idaho Power sharing would be triggered. The previously outlined return on year-end equity thresholds (9.5%,10.0%,10.5%) would be automatically adjusted in the event the IPUC approves changes to Idaho Power’s ROE in a future general rate case proceeding (including Langley Gulch). Specifically, the 9.5% return on year-end equity would be replaced by 95% of the new authorized return on equity, the 10.0% return on year-end equity would be reestablished at the new return on equity amount, and the 10.5% return on year-end equity would be replaced by 105% of the new authorized return on equity. Also, Idaho Power would allocate 75% of its share of the 2011 jurisdictional earnings above 10.5% return on year-end equity. As a result, we expect IDA to record a pre-tax charge of approximately $15m in 4Q11 (versus previous sharing expectation of $10m). • Staff recommends the Commission establish a comment period through December 20, 2011, allowing written comments on the Company’s Application and the Settlement Stipulation. The matter will then be fully submitted, enabling the Commission to issue an Order by December 30, 2011. • We note the ADITC extension settlement stipulation is for the 3-year period 2012-2014 rather than a 2-year period previously filed for in IDA’s original ADITC extension application. In our opinion, the settlement offers a stable earnings stream with an attractive earnings floor (9.5% year-end equity earnings floor), thereby, providing earnings visibility through 2014. Further, the customer benefits by an additional $5m in credits ($15m total compared with previous refund of $10m) related to 2011 sharing and could benefit again over the next three years (2012-2014) in the event that Idaho Power returns exceed the 10% threshold of year-end equity. • We note the improved earnings visibility through 2014 due to the likely IPUC approval (by year- end 2011) of the ADITC extension settlement stipulation filed yesterday and general rate case settlement stipulation filed a few months ago. We also note the value of a 9.5% earnings floor on year-end equity, especially during a period of uncertain industry-wide rate case cycles (rate shock to customers, declining allowed ROE trends, cost disallowances and regulatory lag). Considering our improved earnings outlook, increased multi-year EPS estimates, and increased price target, we now rate IDA shares a BUY. • In addition to our favorable view of the ADITC extension settlement stipulation (pending IPUC approval), we expect a significant common dividend increase in 2012. We believe IDA possesses the financial flexibility and liquidity to raise the dividend 25% to $1.50 p/s during 2012, implying a 48% 2012E payout ratio and near the low-end of the 50-60% target payout ratio adopted by the Board (1Q12 Board dividend decision possible). Lastly, we see additional longer- term rate base and earnings growth supported by the Boardman-to-Hemingway transmission line needed to maintain system reliability ($820m total cost, IDA 30-50% interest, COD 2016). COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (December 12, 2011) $40.43 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE11) $45.00 Prior Target $43.00 52 - Week Range $33.88-$41.97 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,986 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,461 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 218 Book Value per Share (3Q11A) $31.45 Dividend (FY11E) / Yield $1.20 3.0% FY2010A FY2011E FY2012E Revenue (mill) $1,036 $1,121 $1,220 1Q EPS $0.34 $0.60A 2Q EPS $0.82 $0.42A 3Q EPS $1.39 $2.16A 4Q EPS $0.41 EPS $2.95 $3.35 $3.10 Prior EPS $3.40 $3.02 Consensus EPS $3.08 $3.04 P/E 13.7x 12.1x 13.0x EV/EBITDA 11.0x 11.5x 9.1x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update December 13, 2011 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - Table 1: IDA – Financial Summar $000, exce t /s amount Year Ending 31 December 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E FINANCIAL SUMMARY1 EPS 2.17 2.64 2.9 3.35 3.10 3.23 P/E ratio 18.64 15.34 13.69 12.08 13.03 12.51 EBITDAPS 6.45 6.66 6.51 6.14 7.76 8.00 P/EBITDAPS 6.27 6.07 6.21 6.59 5.21 5.06Free CFPS -2.36 0.69 -0.68 -1.17 -0.09 1.55 P/Free CFPS -17.14 58.72 -59.49 -34.48 -448.29 26.00 DPS 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.50 1.73 Dividend yield 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.7% 4.3%Dividend payout ratio 55.3% 45.5% 40.6% 35.8% 48.3% 53.4% BV PS 28.80 29.71 31.76 34.13 35.65 37.02P/BV PS 1.40 1.36 1.27 1.18 1.13 1.09 Dilluted Shares Out 45,379 47,182 48,340 48,940 48,940 48,940 Enterprise value 3,009,296 3,264,311 3,213,996 3,461,089 3,538,912 3,547,246EV/Sales 3.13 3.11 3.10 3.09 2.90 2.84 EV/EBITDA 10.28 10.39 10.22 11.53 9.32 9.07EV/EBIT 15.80 14.87 14.82 17.08 13.16 12.94 INCOME STATEMENT (USDm)Revenues 960,414 1,049,800 1,036,029 1,120,689 1,220,143 1,251,210 Gross margin 190,667 203,583 198,670 180,851 256,655 265,837 Operating EBITDA 292,753 314,209 314,591 300,250 379,635 391,277Depreciation & Amortization 102,086 110,626 115,921 119,399 122,981 125,440 EBIT 190,501 219,547 216,843 202,595 268,848 274,030 Interest expense 73,056 72,810 75,114 67,925 79,600 79,600 Net income 98,414 124,350 142,798 163,837 151,864 158,156 Net income per share 2.17 2.64 2.95 3.35 3.10 3.23 CASH FLOW (USDm)Cash flow from operations 136,513 284,425 305,400 267,623 260,586 271,088 Cash flow from investing (202,824) (242,405) (328,334) (318,357) (265,000) (195,000) Capital expenditures 243,544 251,937 338,252 325,000 265,000 195,000 Cash flow from financing 67,173 2,139 198,624 (170,592) 26,590 (84,422)Common dividends (54,239) (56,820) (57,872) (58,728) (73,410) (84,422) Free cash flow (107,031) 32,488 (32,852) (57,377) (4,414) 76,088 BALANCE SHEET (USDm) Cash and marketable sec 8,828 52,987 228,677 7,351 29,527 21,193 Total assets 4,022,845 4,238,727 4,676,055 4,578,513 4,680,709 4,669,935Total debt/lease 1,183,451 1,409,730 1,488,287 1,489,795 1,589,795 1,589,795 Total liabilities 2,715,974 2,905,637 3,140,071 3,019,007 3,119,007 3,119,007Shareholders' equity 1,306,871 1,401,544 1,535,284 1,670,281 1,744,485 1,811,719 RATIO ANALYSISSales growth (%) 9.2% 9.3% -1.3% 8.2% 8.9% 2.5% Gross margin/sales (%) 19.9% 19.4% 19.2% 16.1% 21.0% 21.2% EBIT/Assets 4.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4.4% 5.7% 5.9%CFO/Assets 3.4% 6.7% 6.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% ROA 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% ROE 7.5% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% Total debt/total capital 47.5% 50.1% 49.2% 47.1% 47.7% 46.7%Total debt/EBITDA 4.0 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.1 EBITDA/interest expense 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 FFO/Debt 20.2% 20.5% 18.0% 16.4% 17.1% RATE BASE Im lied Rate Base2 2,700,403.03$ 2,825,324.85$ ADITC EXTENSION ANALYSIS Idaho Power (IPC) year-end shareholder equity 1,587,481 1,648,665 Idaho Power Idaho-urisdictional Earnin s 144,778 151,141 Idaho Power Oregon-jurisdictional Earnings 5,610 5,610Total Idaho Power Earnings Per Share $3.07 $3.20 Financial, Ida-West, Holdco $0.03 $0.03 Consolidated EPS $3.10 $3.23 12010 and 2011 earnings based on previous settlement that enables Idapower to earn an ROE of at last 9.5% on year-end shareholder equity 2 2012 average rate based includes partial-year of $397m Langley Gluch with COD expected mid-year 2012. 32012-2014 rate structure pending IPUC approval of ADITC extension settlement and 2011 GRC settlement stipulation 4Idaho Power Idaho-jurisdictional earnings based on 9.5% return-on year-end shareholder equity (96% of total Idaho Power year-end shareholder equity) Source: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, Inc., Company Reports Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 11/30/11) Buy 76% (30% are banking clients) Neutral 24% (11% are banking clients) Sell 0% ( 0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 5 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some companies that Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of some or all of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2011 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.