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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE120712.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY BOSTON, MA PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL HOUSTON, TX 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) Meeting Highlights – Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our revised price target of $47 p/s (previously $49 p/s) implies a 2013/2014 P/E of 14.4x/13.8x our EPS estimates of $3.26/$3.41. Our 2012 EPS estimate is $3.34. The primary driver of our decreased target price is contraction in regulated utility industry average valuation multiples (regulated utilities are defined as utilities regulated at both the state/federal level). • We recently met with IDA senior management. Topics of discussion included (but not limited to): dividend policy, service territory, regulatory strategy, rate base profile, Boardman-Hemingway transmission line (B-H), 2013 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), hydro conditions. • IDA reiterated its commitment to a long-term dividend payout ratio of 50-60%. In September 2012, IDA announced its second dividend increase of the year and 2012 dividend growth totals +26.7%. IDA management also plans to recommend to the Board a dividend increase of “at least ten percent” in September 2013. We view the 2012 dividend increase and September 2013 dividend growth guidance favorably. The targeted September 2013 dividend increase of “at least ten percent” further supports our view of attractive total return potential. An assumed +10% dividend increase in September 2013 implies a dividend yield of 3.87% based on yesterday’s closing price. • IDA service territory is growing supported by immigration, as well as, a pro-business environment. Idaho is characterized by its favorable quality of life and business-friendly environment. Both industrial and commercial customer base is expanding supporting economic and infrastructure development in Boise, Idaho and driving retail activity within the IDA service territory. Annual average long-term load growth is forecasted at 1.0-1.3%. • Recent regulatory outcomes support a constructive regulatory track record, in our opinion, and we view regulatory risk as manageable for the next several years. We believe the existing Idaho Power 2012-2014 rate plan offers a stable earnings stream with an attractive earnings floor (9.5% year-end equity earnings floor), thereby, providing earnings visibility through 2014 (no ADITC usage expected in 2012). If needed, we expect IDA to file its next rate case by June 2014 for rates effective 2015. A filing requesting an extension of the current rate plan is also possible prior to June 2014. The Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) mechanism is another example of the numerous mechanisms that allow for timely recovery of costs and that help mitigate earnings volatility. This is important considering the volatility in annual hydro conditions. • 2011 year-end rate base totaled $2.5b and we estimate $100-$120m of annual rate base growth relative to base capex. The $398m Langley Gulch Generation station, added to rates in July 2012, is the primary driver of near-term rate base growth. The proposed $890-$940m Boardman-to-Hemingway Line (B-H) and/or new generation are the primary drivers of longer-term rate base growth. • We expect IDA to file its 2013 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in June 2013. We expect updated load forecast projections. We also expect the IRP to analyze the need for new generation build (400 MW) in 2016 to offset the delay in B-H from 2016 to 2018. • As of November 2012, Brownlee and Hells Canyon are forecasted to have water supplies 78% and 82% of their 30-year averages, respectively. We assume normal 2013 hydro conditions, at this time. Due to the mechanics of the PCA, we believe IDA is least sensitive to changes in annual hydro conditions relative to its northwest regional peers. • See Table 2 for Financial Summary. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (December 6, 2012) $43.12 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE12) $47.00 Prior Target $49.00 52 - Week Range $38.17-$45.67 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $2,118 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,497 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 207 Book Value per Share (3Q12A) $35.29 Dividend (FY13E) / Yield $1.67 3.87% FY2011A FY2012E FY2013E Revenue (mill) $1,027 $1,151 $1,170 1Q EPS $0.60 $0.50A 2Q EPS $0.42 $0.71A 3Q EPS $2.16 $1.84A 4Q EPS $0.18 .$0.29E EPS $3.36 $3.34 $3.26 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $3.35 $3.26 P/E 12.8x 12.9x 13.2x EV/EBITDA 12.3x 9.1x 8.9x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update December 7, 2012 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - Investment Conclusion Meeting Highlights We recently met with IDA senior management. Topics of discussion included (but not limited to): dividend policy, service territory, regulatory strategy, rate base profile, Boardman-Hemingway transmission line (B-H), 2013 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), hydro conditions. Dividend Policy IDA reiterated its commitment to a long-term dividend payout ratio of 50-60%. In September 2012, IDA announced its second dividend increase of the year and 2012 dividend growth totals +26.7%. IDA management also plans to recommend to the Board a dividend increase of “at least ten percent” in September 2013. Given the company’s growth opportunities, IDA believes the 50-60% payout allows for financing flexibility of upcoming investments consistent with its strategy to fund capital investments with minimal external equity. We view the 2012 dividend increase and September 2013 dividend growth guidance favorably. The targeted September 2013 dividend increase of “at least ten percent” further supports our view of attractive total return potential. An assumed +10% dividend increase in September 2013 implies an annualized dividend of $1.67, a 2013 implied dividend payout ratio of 51% and an implied dividend yield of 3.87% based on yesterday closing price. Service Territory and Local Economy IDA service territory is expanding supported by immigration, as well as, a pro- business environment. Idaho is characterized by its favorable quality of life (weather, cost of living) and business-friendly environment (balanced state budget, incentive tax laws, low energy costs). YTD2012 general business customer growth totaled 5,228, up from 3,201 reported in the same period a year ago. Both industrial and commercial customer base is expanding supporting economic and infrastructure development in Boise, Idaho and driving retail activity within its service territory. Annual average long-term load growth is forecasted at 1.0-1.3% with load growth primarily supported by customer growth not usage per customer. Regulatory Strategy and Regulatory Track Record Recent regulatory outcomes support a constructive regulatory track record, in our opinion. We view regulatory risk as manageable for the next several years. The existing Idaho Power 2012-2014 rate plan supports this view. In our opinion, the settlement offers a stable earnings stream with an attractive earnings floor (9.5% year-end equity earnings floor), thereby, providing earnings visibility through 2014. Also, customers can benefit under the sharing mechanisms if Idaho Power earned returns at certain levels. Customer refunds are expected in 4Q12 as Idaho Power returns are above the sharing triggers providing customers with refunds to offset existing rates. If needed, we would expect IDA to file its next rate case by June 2014 for rates effective 2015. A filing requesting an extension of the current rate plan is also possible prior to June 2014. As a reminder, Idaho Power may use up to $45m in aggregate of deferred investment tax credits (ADITC) over a three year-period (2012-2014) to reach a minimum 9.5% return-on-year-end equity. No more than $25m can be used in Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - any one year and we assume no ADITC usage in 2012. IDA is essentially earning at least 9.5% of year-end shareholder equity. If Idaho Power return on year-end equity for 2012-2014 exceeds 10.0% but less than 10.5% then equal sharing (50/50) between Idaho Power and customers would be triggered. If Idaho Power return on year-end equity for 2012-2014 exceeds 10.5% then 75% customer sharing and 25% Idaho Power sharing would be triggered. The Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) mechanism is another example of the numerous mechanisms that allow for timely recovery of costs and that help mitigate earnings volatility. The PCA addresses power supply cost volatility and provides for annual adjustments to rates. Updated each spring, the PCA captures differences in actual supply costs and those costs currently recovered in rates with the variances deferred for future recovery/refund, as well as, to forecast future supply costs. This is important considering the volatility in annual hydro conditions. Due to the mechanics of the PCA, we believe IDA is least sensitive to changes in annual hydro conditions relative to its northwest regional peers. Rate Base Profile and Growth Drivers 2011 year-end rate base totaled $2.5b including Idaho and Oregon rate base of $2.4b and $0.1b, respectively. Annual base capital expenditures of $250m exceed annual depreciation expense of $130m and support approximately $100- $120m per year of rate base growth. The $398m Langley Gulch Generation station ($335m net of bonus depreciation), added to rates in July 2012, is the primary driver of near-term rate base growth. The proposed $890-$940m (total investment) Boardman-to-Hemingway Line (B-H) and/or new generation are the primarily drivers of longer-term rate base growth. Boardman-Hemingway Transmission Line Project As previously disclosed, due to permitting delays, the Boardman-Hemingway (B- H) transmission project is delayed from 2016 to 2018. The $890-$940m B-H (300 mile, 500 kV transmission line, 1000 MW capacity) is designed to wheel capacity from the West into Idaho Power service territory. The B-H project is reliability-driven and not growth-driven. Per the 2011 IRP, the line is needed for summer peak reliability beginning in 2016. Due to the daily intermittence of wind energy (hourly wind output declines during hourly peak energy usage), IDA needs 400/200 MW of summer/winter peak capacity and the B-H line was identified as the preferred option to manage the summer peak reserve margin. The development joint venture includes BPA and Pacificorp. IDA interest is estimated at 21%. A draft EIS is expected in 1H13 which may include a BLM preferred route and the line was identified as a “BPA Top Priority” for 2013 and beyond. Upcoming 2013 Integrated Resource Plan We expect IDA to file its 2013 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in June 2013. We expect updated load forecast projections and we sense that load projections may have moderated (since the 2011 IRP) due to the overall economy and the loss of a previously expected 80 MW industrial customer. We expect the IRP to analyze the need for new generation build (400 MW) in 2016 to offset the delay in B-H from 2016 to 2018. Options include: new build (Langley Gulch site has expansion potential), import capacity from east of Idaho (PPA) to bridge the capacity gap until B-H line is completed. The need for 2016 generation capacity remains uncertain, at this time. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - Hydro Conditions As of November 2012, Brownlee and Hells Canyon are forecasted to have water supplies at 78% and 82% of their 30-year averages, respectively. We begin monitoring hydro conditions in the northwest late in the year, particularly snowpack and forecasted stream flows. We assume normal 2013 hydro conditions, at this time. IDA’s hydroelectric facilities (1,709 MW nameplate capacity and 47% of total generation capacity) are primarily located on the Snake River along the Idaho/Oregon border. The majority of IDA’s water supply is held at the Brownlee Reservoir. In a normal year, hydroelectric capacity totals 8.6m MWh. Any shortfall (as compared with the median) is generally replaced with purchase power from the open markets and 95% of those costs are recovered through the PCA mechanism in Idaho. IDA was authorized by the Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC) in January 2009 to change its sharing mechanism to 95/5 (previously 90/10 sharing with customers), as well as, the implementation of a forward-looking model forecasting fuel costs. We view IDA as the least sensitive to changes in hydro conditions relative to its northwest peers. Table 2: IDA – Financial Summar $000, exce t /s amount Year Ending 31 December 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E FINANCIAL SUMMARY1 EP 2.64 2.9 3.3 3.34 3.26 3.41P/E ratio 17.83 15.91 13.97 14.07 14.40 13.80 EBITDAPS 6.66 6.51 5.73 7.80 7.91 7.84 P/EBITDAPS 7.06 7.22 8.20 6.03 5.94 5.99Free CFPS 0.69 -0.68 -0.56 0.93 -0.71 -0.60 P/Free CFPS 68.26 -69.16 -84.63 50.46 -65.83 -78.95DPS 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.52 1.67 1.84Dividend yield 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% Dividend payout ratio 45.5% 40.6% 35.7% 45.5% 51.2% 54.0% BV PS 29.71 31.76 33.53 35.33 36.93 38.49 P/BV PS 1.58 1.48 1.40 1.33 1.27 1.22 Dilluted Shares Out 47,182 48,340 49,558 49,558 49,558 49,558 Enterprise value 3,574,297 3,531,590 3,688,963 3,718,133 3,751,376 3,787,025EV/Sales 3.40 3.41 3.59 3.23 3.21 3.21EV/EBITDA 11.38 11.23 12.99 9.62 9.57 9.74 EV/EBIT 16.28 16.29 19.81 13.70 14.03 14.29INCOME STATEMENT (USDm) Revenues 1,049,800 1,036,029 1,026,756 1,151,017 1,169,587 1,179,401 Gross margin 203,583 198,670 164,248 262,973 263,074 258,290 Operating EBITDA 314,209 314,591 284,037 386,355 392,190 388,698Depreciation & Amortization 110,626 115,921 119,789 123,383 129,116 130,408EBIT 219,547 216,843 186,255 271,362 267,463 265,091 Interest expense 72,810 75,114 71,526 75,417 75,417 75,418Net income 124,350 142,798 166,693 165,574 161,799 168,800 Net income per share 2.64 2.95 3.36 3.34 3.26 3.41 CASH FLOW (USDm)Cash flow from operations 284,425 305,400 310,243 281,159 287,118 292,998 Cash flow from investing (242,405) (328,334) (332,358) (235,000) (322,500) (322,500)Capital expenditures 251,937 338,252 337,765 235,000 322,500 322,500 Cash flow from financing 2,139 198,624 (178,749) 24,672 2,139 (6,147)Common dividends (56,820) (57,872) (59,668) (75,328) (82,861) 0 Free cash flow 32,488 (32,852) (27,522) 46,159 (35,382) (29,502) BALANCE SHEET (USDm)Cash and marketable sec 52,987 228,677 27,813 98,643 65,400 29,751 Total assets 4,238,727 4,676,055 4,960,609 4,809,462 5,055,102 5,211,545Total debt/lease 1,409,730 1,488,287 1,387,550 1,487,550 1,487,550 1,487,550 Total liabilities 2,905,637 3,140,071 3,298,915 2,904,904 2,904,904 2,904,904 Shareholders' equity 1,401,544 1,535,284 1,661,694 1,751,051 1,829,989 1,907,643RATIO ANALYSIS Sales growth (%) 9.3% -1.3% -0.9% 12.1% 1.6% 0.8%Gross margin/sales (%) 19.4% 19.2% 16.0% 22.8% 22.5% 21.9% EBIT/Assets 5.2% 4.6% 3.8% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1%CFO/Assets 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6%ROA 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% ROE 8.9% 9.3% 10.0% 9.5% 8.8% 8.8% Total debt/total capital 50.1% 49.2% 45.5% 45.9% 44.8% 43.8% Total debt/EBITDA 4.5 4.7 4.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 EBITDA/interest expense 4.3 4.2 4.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 FFO/Debt 20.2% 20.5% 22.4% 18.9% 19.3% 19.7% RATE BASE ANALYSIS 0.085828395 0.035327784 0.069153389 Implied Rate Base2 2,487,522 2,701,022 2,796,443 2,989,826 ADITC EXTENSION ANALYSIS AND EARNINGS SUMMARY3 Idaho Power (IPC) year-end shareholder equity 1,593,456 1,679,015 1,755,031 Idaho Power Idaho-jurisdictional Earnings4 158,708 154,721 161,726Idaho Power Oregon-jurisdictional Earnings 5,610 5,722 5,837 Total Idaho Power Earnings Per Share $3.32 $3.24 $3.38 Financial, Ida-West, Holdco $0.03 $0.03 $0.03Consolidated EPS $3.34 $3.26 $3.41 Source: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, Inc., Company Reports Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 5 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report, provided, however, that: The research analyst primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report has or will receive compensation based upon various factors, including the volume of trading at the firm in the subject security, as well as the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 6 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (AS OF 11/30/12) Buy: 78% (30% are banking clients) Neutral: 21% (8% are banking clients) Sell: 1% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 7 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some companies that Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of some or all of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2012 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.