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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE110212.pdf.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY BOSTON, MA PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL HOUSTON, TX 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) 3Q12 Results and Increased 2012 Guidance – Raising P-T and Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our revised price target of $49 p/s (previously $47 p/s) implies a 2012/2013/2014 P/E of 14.7x/15.0x/14.4x our revised EPS estimates of $3.34/$3.26/$3.41 (previously $3.26/$3.23/$3.38). • On November 1, 2012, IDA reported 3Q12 net income of $92.1m or $1.84 p/s compared to net income of $107.1m or $2.16 p/s in 3Q11 and our estimate of $1.61 p/s. The main drivers behind the y-o-y changes include: rate and regulatory changes +$32.1m, increase in sales volumes +$3.0m, Change in Payroll-Related Expenses +$2.3m, Additional Pension Expense Funder Through Sharing -$5.8m, change in Depreciation, Property Tax and Other-Net -$2.7m, Greater Revenue Sharing in 2011 than in 2012 +$11.8m, Change in AFUDC -$4.2m, Change in Additional Amortization of ADITC +$6.8m, Other Net Change -$1.9m and Income Tax Expense and Other Net Changes (net of tax) -$56.4m. • IDA increased their previous 2012 earnings guidance to $3.30-$3.40 p/s from $3.20- $3.35 and assumes the following: Idaho Power O&M expense of $335m-$345m (previously $325m-$335m) driven by additional pension expense offset by Idaho sharing agreement, 2012 capital expenditures total $230m-$240m (no change), Idaho Power Hydroelectric Generation increased to 7.8-8.2m MWh from 7.5-8.5m MWh and Non-Regulated Subsidiary Earnings and Holdco of $0m-$3m (no change). • Other highlights include:$7.8m tax benefit recorded in 3Q12 due to repairs deduction, $12.9m customer sharing benefit realized in 3Q12 (includes $6.3m for customer sharing and $5.8m to lower pension obligation per GRC settlement agreement of return-on-year-end-equity exceeding 10.0-10.5%), $890-$940m Boardman- Hemingway (B-H) transmission line under development (IDA interest at 21%, COD 2018, BPA recognized line B-H as “top priority”, draft EIS expected in 1H13), June 2013 IRP filing to include options for 2016 capacity needs to offset B-H delays, no amortization of ADITC needed in 2012 ($45m can be allocated to 2013-2014 return on equity floor of 9.5% of year-end shareholder equity calculation), following two common dividend increases in 2012 representing annualized +27% increase over 2011 dividend management to recommend to Board at least a 10% increase in dividend in September 2013, receipt of 30-year federal license for continued operation of the Swan Falls hydroelectric facility, regional economy improving (service territory unemployment rate at 6.9% currently vs 10% in 2011, new business activity), modest load growth expected in 2013 and 1.0-1.3% load growth expected post-2013. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (November 1, 2012) $44.80 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE12) $49.00 Prior Target $47.00 52 - Week Range $38.17-$45.67 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $2,200 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,675 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 207 Book Value per Share (2Q12A) $33.74 Dividend (FY12E) / Yield $1.52 3.39% FY2011A FY2012E FY2013E Revenue (mill) $1,121 $1,235 $1,251 1Q EPS $0.60 $0.50A 2Q EPS $0.42 $0.71A 3Q EPS $2.16 $1.84A 4Q EPS $0.18 .$0.29E EPS $3.36 $3.34 $3.26 Prior EPS $3.26 $3.23 Consensus EPS $3.27 $3.23 P/E 13.3x 13.4x 13.7x EV/EBITDA 12.2x 9.3x 9.4x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update November 2, 2012 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (AS OF 10/31/12) Buy: 75% (32% are banking clients) Neutral: 24% (5% are banking clients) Sell: 1% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2012 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.