Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE100411.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) Company Update - Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our price target of $42 per share implies a 2012/2013 P/E of 13.9x/13.3x our EPS estimates of $3.02/$3.15. Our 2011 EPS estimate is $3.53 and reflects the recently announced unicap approval. • Idaho Power, IPUC Staff and other parties recently filed a GRC settlement stipulation. Specifically, IDA received a total of $34m net annual revenue increase comprised of non-net power supply increase of $45.5m vs $71.3m in original filing and a net power supply decrease of $11.5m decrease vs $11.3m increase in original filing. The settlement also provides a 7.86% rate of return on approximately $2.36b of rate base. Recall, in June 2011, IDA filed for a $82.6m revenue increase (+9.9%) based on a 10.5% ROE, 51.2% equity ratio, 8.17% return on average 2011 rate base of $2.36b. Prefiled testimony is expected on October 7, 2011, technical hearings are scheduled on December 6-8, 2011, and new rates are to be effective January 1, 2012. • ROE and equity ratio were not disclosed but we estimate an allowed ROE of approximately 10.3% and an equity ratio 51%. The settlement stipulation is pending IPUC approval and the unicap study was not included in the settlement stipulation. We generally view the settlement stipulation as positive as IDA received nearly two-thirds of its non-net power supply revenue request. Also the agreement eliminates an overhang and supports our view of a constructive Idaho regulatory environment. We believe that with cost control efforts, ongoing tax benefits, load growth, and other rate mechanisms in place IDA can earn fair returns in 2012. • The unicap study is likely to be reviewed by the IPUC at a later date and we note that the study will ultimately benefit customers as earnings above the 10.5% ROE threshold will be shared/refunded with/to customers. The tax study-related customer sharing, the reversal of investment tax credits (ADITC), and ongoing tax benefits position IDA favorably in upcoming regulatory developments, in our opinion. We expect IDA to file for recovery in base rates of the pre-approved $427m Langley Gulch generation station for new rates in June 2012 driving rate base higher. • We also expect a common dividend increase in 2H12. The current payout ratio is 40% (based on our 2012 EPS estimate), well below regulated utility peer group payout ratio targets of 60-70% (regulated utility peer group defined as electric utiliies with a majority of operations regulated by the state/federal). We expect IDA capital program to moderate in the near-term following Langley Gulch completion (2011 capex of $325m, 2012-2013 total capex of $460m) and then ramp-up longer-term ahead of the expected completion date (2016) of the $820m (partners expected) Boardman-Hemmingway transmission line. Therefore, we expect incremental financial flexibility and liquidity going forward supporting a common dividend increase. • Our 2011 EPS estimate is $3.53, at this time, which implies a 10.5% ROE ($3.20) and IDA’s entitlement to 50% of earnings (+$0.33) in excess of a 10.5% return as outlined in its current rate structure. Our 2011 estimated EPS is subject to change and we expect IDA to provide an updated 2011 earnings guidance with the release of its 3Q11 financial results. The estimated ongoing unicap study benefit ($3m annually) was excluded from the Idaho rate case settlement stipulation and revenue requirement. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (October 3, 2011) $37.59 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE11) $42.00 52 - Week Range $33.88-$40.71 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,846 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,404 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 218 Book Value per Share (2Q11A) $33.24 Dividend (FY11E) / Yield $1.20 3.2% FY2010A FY2011E FY2012E Revenue (mill) $1,036 $1,121 $1,218 1Q EPS $0.34 $0.60A 2Q EPS $0.82 $0.42A 3Q EPS $1.39 4Q EPS $0.41 EPS $2.95 $3.53 $3.02 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $3.04 $3.01 P/E 12.7x 10.6x 12.4x EV/EBITDA 10.8x 11.3x 9.0x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 C los e $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update October 4, 2011 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 15% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 15% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 15% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 09/30/11) Buy 77% (33% are banking clients) Neutral 23% (12% are banking clients) Sell 0% ( 0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company, or other companies mentioned in this report. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some companies that Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of some or all of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2011 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.