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IDANOTE092112.pdf.pdf
Disclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY BOSTON, MA PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL HOUSTON, TX 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) Common Dividend Increase of +15.2% – Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our revised price target of $47 (previously $46 p/s) implies a 2012/2013/2014 P/E of 14.4x/14.5x/13.9x our EPS estimates of $3.26/$3.23/$3.38. • On September 20, 2012, IDA announced its second dividend increase of 2012. Specifically, IDA increased its quarterly cash common dividend by +15.2% to $0.38 per share implying an annualized rate of $1.52. The quarterly dividend is payable November 30, 2012. Including the January 2012 quarterly dividend increase (+$0.03 p/s), 2012 dividend growth totals +26.7%. Furthermore, IDA management plans to recommend to the Board a dividend increase of “at least ten percent” in September 2013. IDA also reiterated its commitment to a long-term dividend payout ratio of 50-60%. • We view the announced dividend increase and the expected September 2013 dividend increase favorably and ahead of our expectations of a second dividend increase of +10% in the latter part of 2012. The annualized dividend rate of $1.52 now implies a dividend yield of 3.56% (based on yesterday’s closing price) and also implies a 2012 dividend payout ratio of 49%. Further, the targeted September 2013 dividend increase of “at least ten percent” further supports our view of attractive total return potential. An assumed +10% dividend increase in September 2013 implies an annualized dividend of $1.67 and an 2013 implied dividend payout ratio of 52%. • We also highlight the following fundamentals: minimal regulatory risk due to ADITC rate settlement agreement through 2014 and $427m 300 MW Langley Gulch generation station added to rates in mid-2012, earnings visibility due to 9.5% ROE floor based on year-end shareholder equity (no ADITC needed in 2012, $70m ADITC balance), upcoming 2013 IRP to include new build scenario to meet capacity needs in 2016 following Boardman-Hemingway transmission line delay from 2016 to 2018, 1% long-term load growth forecasts, previously mentioned attractive dividend growth, and compelling 2014 leading P/E of 12.7x (based on yesterday’s closing price). • We continue to view IDA as an attractively-valued fundamentally-strong small-cap regulated utility and we reiterate our BUY rating. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (September 21, 2012, intra-day) $43.15 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE12) $47.00 Prior Target $46.00 52 - Week Range $36.57-$43.64 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $2,119 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,783 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 226 Book Value per Share (2Q12A) $33.35 Dividend (FY12E) / Yield $1.52 3.52% FY2011A FY2012E FY2013E Revenue (mill) $1,121 $1,220 $1,251 1Q EPS $0.60 $0.50A 2Q EPS $0.42 $0.71A 3Q EPS $2.16 4Q EPS $0.18 EPS $3.36 $3.26 $3.23 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $3.26 $3.23 P/E 12.8x 13.2x 13.4x EV/EBITDA 12.6x 10.0x 9.7x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update September 21, 2012 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (AS OF 8/31/12) Buy: 77% (29% are banking clients) Neutral: 22% (8% are banking clients) Sell: 1% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of some or all of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2012 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.