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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE050412.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY BOSTON, MA PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) 1Q12 Financial Results – Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our price target of $44 (previously $46 p/s) implies a 2012/2013/2014 P/E of 14.2x/13.6x/13.0x our EPS estimates of $3.10/$3.23/$3.38. • On May 3, 2012, IDA reported 1Q12 net income of $24.9m or $0.50 per diluted share compared to net income of $29.7m or $0.60 per diluted share in 1Q11 and our estimate of $0.59 per diluted share. The main drivers behind the y-o-y changes include: rate and regulatory changes +$5.1m, changes in sales volumes -$2.8m, pension and payroll related expenses -$5.3m, purchased services and software maintenance expense -$2.5m, increased depreciation, property tax and other -$1.8m, change in earnings at Bridger Coal Company +$3.4m, increase in AFUDC +$3.0m, change in additional amortization of ADITC -$3.0m and income tax expense and other net decreases (net of tax) -$0.9m. • IDA affirmed their previous 2012 earnings guidance of $3.00-$3.15 p/s and assumes the following: Langley Gulch power plant is commercially available as of July 1, 2012, assumes an estimated use of additional ADITC of less than $5m in 2012, Idaho Power O&M expense of $325m-$335m, 2012 capital expenditures total $230m-$240m, 2013-2014 capital expenditures total $490m-$500m (excludes potential transmission construction spend), Idaho Power Hydroelectric Generation 7.5-9.5m MWh and Non-Regulated Subsidiary Earnings and Holdco of $0m-$3m. • At 11.7x our 2014 EPS estimate of $3.38, IDA trades at a 13% discount to regulated utility peers (regulated utility peers defined as utilities with a majority of operations regulated by the State/Federal). We believe the discount is unwarranted due to the following: earnings visibility and a 9.5% ROE floor based on year-end shareholder equity due to ADITC rate agreement through 2014 (less than $5m to be used in 2012, $25m available for use), limited regulatory risk, “reliability-driven” $820m Boardman-to- Hemingway transmission project (IDA to own 21.21%, COD 2016), expectations for attractive dividend growth (50-60% target payout over time, current dividend implies a 44% 2012 payout ratio). Given the previously mentioned positive fundamentals, we reiterate our BUY rating. • Other highlights include: $150m of first mortgage bonds issued in April 2013 (10-yr at 2.95%, 30-yr at 4.3%) with proceeds to be used to redeem $100m first mortgage bonds (4.75% coupon) and to fund capital budget, minimal external financing needed for remainder of 2012, March 2012 equity of 52% (target equity ratio of 50%), Langley Gulch on schedule for July 1, 2012 commercial operations (IPUC approval pending), industrial customer contract renegotiated and 2012 margin impact mitigated, due to seasonality of rates (price/volume) third quarter is most meaningful margin contributor, the 300 mile 500-kv Boardman-Hemingway transmission line development progressing (January 2012 cost-sharing agreements reached, indentified in 2011 IRP as needed for reliability). COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (May 3, 2012) $39.35 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE12) $44.00 Prior Target $46.00 52 - Week Range $33.88-$42.89 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,932 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,408 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 218 Book Value per Share (1Q12A) $33.18 Dividend (FY12E) / Yield $1.32 3.4% FY2011A FY2012E FY2013E Revenue (mill) $1,121 $1,220 $1,251 1Q EPS $0.60 $0.50 2Q EPS $0.42 3Q EPS $2.16 4Q EPS $0.18 EPS $3.36 $3.10 $3.23 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $3.08 $3.21 P/E 11.7x 12.7x 12.2x EV/EBITDA 11.4x 9.0x 8.7x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update May 4, 2012 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (AS OF 4/30/12) Buy: 75% (33% are banking clients) Neutral: 24% (8% are banking clients) Sell: 1% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2012 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.