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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE050313.pdf Disclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY BOSTON, MA MIAMI, FL NAPLES, FL BOCA RATON, FL HOUSTON, TX 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE MKT, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) 1Q13 Financial Results – Reiterating NEUTRAL Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our NEUTRAL rating IDA shares. Our revised price target of $50 p/s (previously $48 p/s) implies a 2013/2014/2015 P/E of 14.9x/x14.7/15.3x our EPS estimates of $3.35/$3.41/$3.27 (previously $3.23/$3.38/$3.27). Better than expected 1Q13 financial results and favorable customer growth/sales trends partially offset by PCA impact of below normal hydro conditions are the primary drivers of our 2013 EPS estimate revision. • On May 2, 2013, IDA reported 1Q13 net income of $33.5m or $0.67 p/s compared to net income of $24.9m or $0.50 p/s in 1Q12 and our estimate of $0.50 p/s. The primary differences between our estimate and actual results were better than expected sales volumes driven by Langley Gulch rate impact, better than normal weather and cost controls. The main drivers behind the y-o-y changes include: rate and regulatory changes (+$13.7m), increase in sales volumes (+$8.0m), other changes in operating revenues and expenses, net (-$1.8m), decrease in AFUDC (-$6.0m), change in other non-operating income and expense (-$2.7m), additional amortization of ADITC in 2012 (-$0.8m), increase in income tax expense (-$2.2m) and other net changes (net of tax) (-$0.4m). • IDA reiterated 2013 earnings guidance of $3.20-$3.35 p/s and assumes the following: Idaho Power O&M expense of $340m-$350m, no ADITC needed in 2013 (previously forecasted less than $5m), 2013 capital expenditures of $245m-$255m, 2014-2015 capital expenditures total $570m-$580m and Idaho Power Hydroelectric Generation of 5.0-7.0m MWh (previously forecasted at 6.0-8.0m MWh, 2012 actual at 8.0m MWh). • Other highlights include: 1Q13 HDDs +26% vs 1Q12 and +14% vs normal, hot and dry forecasts may positively impact irrigation customer sales (similar to 2Q12), ADITC balance totals $45m available for 2014 usage if necessary, PCA filing request for a $140.4m pending IPUC review/approval by end of May 2013 (request includes $42.5m for PCA forecast, $77.8m for PCA true-up, $20m for revenue sharing), IDA proposes to defer collection of $52.5m to the 2014/2015 PCA collection period to help mitigate customer rate impact, no GRC filings expected in 2013 and IDA evaluating its GRC strategy with current rate plan expiration at year-end 2014, Gateway West project EIS filed and ROD expected by 2013, Boardman- Hemingway project draft EIS expected this summer and in-service date no sooner than 2018, 3m shares remain under continuous equity program and no shares expected to be issued in 2013, $317m of available liquidity, $75m 2.5% FMB expiring April 2023 issued, $75m 4% FMB expiring April 2043 issued, $70m of debt to be retired in October 2013, Idaho economy strong (unemployment at 6.0% vs 10.0% in early 2011, 5,854 customers added since 1Q12, state budget balanced), large load customer interest in relocating to Idaho, 2013 IRP expected in June 2013 (potential for new generation needs to serve growing load profile), IDA management will recommend at least a 10% dividend increase in September 2013. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (May 2, 2013) $47.73 Price Target, Excl Dividends $50.00 Prior Target $48.00 52 - Week Range $38.17-$49.21 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $2,344 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,846 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 207 Book Value per Share (1Q13A) $35.07 Dividend (FY13E) / Yield $1.52 3.18% FY2012A FY2013E FY2014E Revenue (mill) $1,151 $1,172 $1,181 1Q EPS $0.50 $0.67A 2Q EPS $0.71 3Q EPS $1.84 4Q EPS $0.33 EPS $3.37 $3.35 $3.41 Prior EPS $3.23 $3.38 Consensus EPS $3.26 $3.37 P/E 14.2x 14.2x 14.0x EV/EBITDA 10.0x 9.7x 9.8x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volume in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update May 3, 2013 NEUTRAL Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report, provided, however, that: The research analyst primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report has or will receive compensation based upon various factors, including the volume of trading at the firm in the subject security, as well as the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (AS OF 4/30/13) Buy: 74% (39% are banking clients) Neutral: 25% (6% are banking clients) Sell: 1% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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