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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDANOTE011312.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) Company Update – Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our revised price target of $46 per share (previously $45 p/s) implies a 2013/2014 P/E of 14.2x/13.6x our EPS estimates of $3.23/$3.38. Our 2011/2012 EPS estimates are $3.35/$3.10. Our 2011 EPS estimate includes the unicap study gain and customer credit. • In terms of valuation, IDA trades at 13.0x our 2013 estimated EPS, a 9% discount to a regulated utility peer average of 14.3x (regulated utility peer group defined as electric utilities with a majority of operations regulated by the state/federal). In terms of fundamentals, we note earnings visibility through 2014 due to recently approved ADITC extension for 2012-2014, attractive earnings floor of 9.5% ROE based on year-end shareholder equity, limited regulatory risk (ADITC extension for period of 2012-2014, pre-approved Langley Gulch CCGT), $427m 300 MW Langley Gulch CCGT drives near-term growth, “reliability-driven” $820m Boardman-to-Hemingway transmission project (IDA to own 30-50%, COD 2016) drives long-term growth, common dividend Board declaration this month. We view IDA as an attractively-valued, fundamentally-strong small-cap regulated utility and we reiterate our BUY rating. • The IDA Board recently endorsed a long-term target dividend payout ratio of 50-60%. Based on our 2012 estimated EPS, achieving the low-end of the target would represent a +25% increase in the dividend to $1.50 p/s from $1.20. In our opinion, it is likely that IDA will reach the 50% payout target in at least two steps. We expect a double digit increase (+12.5%) this month to an annualized dividend of $1.35 p/s implying a 3.2% yield. • We expect IDA to file for recovery of the 300 MW Langley Gulch CCGT in 1Q12 (modified procedure) with new rates effective in mid-2012. Importantly, Langley Gulch has been pre- approved by the IPUC and is on-schedule (June 2012) and on budget ($427m). Recovery of Langley Gulch is the primary driver of our 2012-2013 EPS estimates. • Development of the 299-mile, 500 kV Boardman-to-Hemingway transmission line is ongoing. Importantly, the proposed project is needed for reliability and to meet customer supply needs by 2016. The project was also included as one of the federal fast-track designated projects. We expect IDA to own 30-50% of the $820m project and regional partners are expected. The IPUC recently accepted IDA’s IRP documenting the utility’s supply needs through 2030. Development of the transmission line is the primary driver of post 2013 earnings. IDA is also involved in the Gateway West transmission line project which is in the early stages of development (COD post 2016). • The IPUC set an expedited schedule (IPC-E-11-28) for review of IDA’s request to terminate electric service to a solar manufacturing facility owned by Hoku Materials (HOKU-$0.69-NR). Following a Wednesday meeting, the IPUC decided to deliberate on IDA’s request to terminate service to Hoku and will render a decision in a timely fashion. Hoku is currently delinquent on its contracted $1.9m November 2011 and $1.9m December 2011 payment. A $4m deposit is currently held by IDA. While Hoku represents one of IDA’s largest industrial customers we believe the potential lost margins are manageable. Importantly, IDA can use up to $25m of ADITC credits to support a 9.5% floor on year-end equity, further mitigating any impact and highlighting the value of the ADITC extension. We also note a new IDA industrial customer, Chobani (a yogurt manufacturer), broke ground at its Twin Falls. Idaho production facility in late December 2011. The $100m 940,000 square feet facility is anticipated to ramp-up production in 2H12. • We note the following topics/updates expected to be addressed on the upcoming 4Q11 financial results conference call (date TBD): initiation of 2012 earnings guidance, additional insight of the benefits of the ADITC extension, industrial customer outlook, common dividend policy, hydro conditions. •See Table 1 on a e 2 for Financial Summar . COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (January 12, 2012) $41.99 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE12) $46.00 Prior Target $45.00 52 - Week Range $33.88-$42.89 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $2,062 Enterprise Value (mill) $3,537 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 218 Book Value per Share (3Q11A) $31.45 Dividend (FY12E) / Yield $1.35 3.2% FY2010A FY2011E FY2012E Revenue (mill) $1,036 $1,121 $1,220 1Q EPS $0.34 $0.60A 2Q EPS $0.82 $0.42A 3Q EPS $1.39 $2.16A 4Q EPS $0.41 EPS $2.95 $3.35 $3.10 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $3.20 $3.06 P/E 14.2x 12.5x 13.5x EV/EBITDA 11.2x 11.8x 9.3x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.03.0 4.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update January 13, 2012 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - Table 1: IDA – Financial Summar $000, exce t /s amount Year Ending 31 December 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E FINANCIAL SUMMARY1 EP 2.17 2.64 2.95 3.35 3.10 3.23 3.3 P/E ratio 19.36 15.93 14.21 12.54 13.53 12.99 12.44 EBITDAPS 6.45 6.66 6.51 6.14 7.76 8.00 8.02 P/EBITDAPS 6.51 6.31 6.45 6.84 5.41 5.25 5.23Free CFPS -2.36 0.69 -0.68 -1.17 0.00 1.69 -0.27 P/Free CFPS -17.80 60.98 -61.79 -35.82 -12547.58 24.88 -155.12 DPS 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.35 1.52 1.71 Dividend yield 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% Dividend payout ratio 55.3% 45.5% 40.6% 35.8% 43.5% 47.0% 50.6% BV PS 28.80 29.71 31.76 34.13 35.88 37.60 39.26P/BV PS 1.46 1.41 1.32 1.23 1.17 1.12 1.07Dilluted Shares Out 45,379 47,182 48,340 48,940 48,940 48,940 48,940Enterprise value 3,080,087 3,337,915 3,289,407 3,537,435 3,603,668 3,595,407 3,607,274EV/Sales 3.21 3.18 3.18 3.16 2.95 2.87 2.83EV/EBITDA 10.52 10.62 10.46 11.78 9.49 9.19 9.18 EV/EBIT 16.17 15.20 15.17 17.46 13.40 13.12 13.10 INCOME STATEMENT (USDm) Revenues 960,414 1,049,800 1,036,029 1,120,689 1,220,143 1,251,210 1,272,981 Gross margin 190,667 203,583 198,670 180,851 256,655 265,837 264,794 Operating EBITDA 292,753 314,209 314,591 300,250 379,635 391,277 392,743Depreciation & Amortization 102,086 110,626 115,921 119,399 122,981 125,440 127,949EBIT 190,501 219,547 216,843 202,595 268,848 274,030 275,399Interest expense 73,056 72,810 75,114 67,925 79,600 79,600 79,601Net income 98,414 124,350 142,798 163,837 151,864 158,156 165,223 Net income per share 2.17 2.64 2.95 3.35 3.10 3.23 3.38 CASH FLOW (USDm) Cash flow from operations 136,513 284,425 305,400 267,623 264,836 277,588 284,752 Cash flow from investing (202,824) (242,405) (328,334) (318,357) (265,000) (195,000) (298,000) Capital expenditures 243,544 251,937 338,252 325,000 265,000 195,000 298,000 Cash flow from financing 67,173 2,139 198,624 (170,592) 33,931 (74,328) 1,381Common dividends (54,239) (56,820) (57,872) (58,728) (66,069) (74,328) 0 Free cash flow (107,031) 32,488 (32,852) (57,377) (164) 82,588 (13,248) BALANCE SHEET (USDm) Cash and marketable sec 8,828 52,987 228,677 7,351 41,118 49,378 37,512 Total assets 4,022,845 4,238,727 4,676,055 4,578,513 4,692,300 4,698,120 4,959,304 Total debt/lease 1,183,451 1,409,730 1,488,287 1,489,795 1,589,795 1,589,795 1,589,795Total liabilities 2,715,974 2,905,637 3,140,071 3,019,007 3,119,007 3,119,007 3,119,007Shareholders' equity 1,306,871 1,401,544 1,535,284 1,670,281 1,756,076 1,839,904 1,921,510RATIO ANALYSISSales growth (%) 9.2% 9.3% -1.3% 8.2% 8.9% 2.5% 1.7% Gross margin/sales (%) 19.9% 19.4% 19.2% 16.1% 21.0% 21.2% 20.8% EBIT/Assets 4.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4.4% 5.7% 5.8% 5.6% CFO/Assets 3.4% 6.7% 6.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.9% 5.7% ROA 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% ROE 7.5% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 109.5% Total debt/total capital 47.5% 50.1% 49.2% 47.1% 47.5% 46.4% 45.3%Total debt/EBITDA 4.0 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.0EBITDA/interest expense 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.9FFO/Debt 20.2% 20.5% 18.0% 16.7% 17.5% 17.9% RATE BASE ANALYSIS Implied Rate Base2 2,700,403.03$ 2,825,324.85$ 2,894,884.65$ ADITC EXTENSION ANALYSIS AND EARNINGS SUMMARY Idaho Power (IPC) year-end shareholder equity 1,598,029 1,674,313 1,748,574 Idaho Power Idaho-jurisdictional Earnings 145,740 153,493 160,301Idaho Power Oregon-jurisdictional Earnings 5,610 5,610 5,610Total Idaho Power Earnings Per Share $3.09 $3.25 $3.39Financial, Ida-West, Holdco $0.03 $0.03 $0.03Consolidated EPS $3.12 $3.28 $3.42 12010 and 2011 earnings based on previous settlement that enables Idapower to earn an ROE of at last 9.5% on year-end shareholder equity 2 2012 average rate based includes partial-year of $427m Langley Gluch with COD expected mid-year 2012.32012-2014 rate structure based IPUC approved ADITC extension settlement and 2011 GRC settlement 4Idaho Power Idaho-jurisdictional earnings based on 9.5% return-on year-end shareholder equity (96% of total Idaho Power year-end shareholder equity) Source: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, Inc., Company Reports Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 12.5% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 12.5% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 12.5% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (AS OF 12/31/11) Buy: 77% (31% are banking clients) Neutral: 23% (13% are banking clients) Sell: 0% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 5 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some companies that Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of some or all of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2012 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.